O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Vanessa, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. And I will now turn the call over to your host, Tom McFall. Mr. McFall, you may begin.

歡迎來到 O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.2018年第四季及全年業績電話會議。我叫瓦妮莎，我將擔任您今天通話的接線生。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。現在我將把電話交給主持人湯姆·麥克福爾。麥克福爾先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Vanessa. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. During today's conference call, we'll discuss our fourth quarter 2018 results and our outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2019. After our prepared comments, we'll host a question-and-answer period.

謝謝你，Vanessa。各位早安，感謝各位的參與。在今天的電話會議上，我們將討論我們 2018 年第四季的業績以及我們對 2019 年第一季和全年的展望。在我們發表完準備好的評論後，我們將進行問答環節。

Before we begin this morning, I'd like to remind everyone that our comments today contain forward-looking statements. And we intend to be covered by, and we claim the protection under, the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You can identify these statements by forward-looking words, such as estimate, may, could, will, believe, expect, would consider, should, anticipate, project, plan, intend or similar words. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors described in the company's latest annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017 and other recent SEC filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call.

在今天上午會議開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述。我們打算遵守 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中關於前瞻性聲明的安全港條款，並要求獲得該條款的保護。你可以透過諸如估計、可能、可以、將、相信、預期、會考慮、應該、預期、預測、計劃、打算或類似詞語來識別這些陳述。由於公司截至 2017 年 12 月 31 日止年度的最新 10-K 表格年度報告和其他最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的幾個重要因素，公司的實際業績可能與任何前瞻性聲明存在重大差異。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

At this time, I'd like to introduce Greg Johnson.

在此，我謹向大家介紹格雷格·約翰遜。

Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the O'Reilly Auto Parts fourth quarter conference call. Participating on the call with me this morning are Jeff Shaw, our Chief Operating Officer and Co-President; and Tom McFall, our Chief Financial Officer. David O'Reilly, our Executive Chairman; and Greg Henslee, our Executive Vice Chairman, are also present.

謝謝你，湯姆。各位早安，歡迎參加歐萊利汽車配件公司第四季電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的有我們的營運長兼聯席總裁傑夫·肖，以及我們的財務長湯姆·麥克福爾。我們的執行主席大衛·奧萊利和執行副主席格雷格·亨斯利也出席了會議。

To begin today's call, I would like to recognize the hard work and commitment of all of our team members throughout 2018. Your commitment to our dual market strategy and the O'Reilly culture values drove a 3.8% comparable store sales growth, which was at the top end of our annual guidance range of 2% to 4%, which we set at the beginning of the year. Your dedication to exceptional customer service and expense control yielded a total sales increase of 6.2% over the prior year and an operating profit of 19%, which was also at the top end of our annual guidance range. For the year, we generated our 26th consecutive year of comparable sales growth, record revenue and operating income, every year since becoming a public company in 1993. And I would like to thank Team O'Reilly for your many contributions to support our growth and success in 2018.

在今天的電話會議開始之前，我想對我們所有團隊成員在 2018 年的辛勤工作和奉獻精神表示感謝。您對我們雙市場策略和 O'Reilly 文化價值的承諾，推動了同店銷售額成長 3.8%，這達到了我們年初設定的 2% 至 4% 的年度指導範圍的上限。你們對卓越客戶服務和成本控制的執著追求，使得總銷售額比上一年增長了 6.2%，營業利潤達到 19%，這也達到了我們年度指導範圍的上限。今年，我們連續第 26 年實現了可比銷售額成長，創下了營收和營業收入的新紀錄，自 1993 年成為上市公司以來，每年都是如此。我還要感謝奧萊利團隊在 2018 年為我們的發展和成功做出的許多貢獻。

Now we will cover our fourth quarter results and key expectations supporting our 2019 guidance. Our comparable sales for the fourth quarter grew 3.3%, which is in line with our expectations. From a comp store sales progression standpoint, October and November were strong, with December being weaker and slightly negative. The December results fell short of our expectations due, in part, to seasonal business that was pulled forward into November as we experienced cold weather earlier in the quarter in 2018 than the prior year, coupled with the lack of harsh weather in December, which we were facing difficult compares for the past 2 Decembers. We also faced stronger-than-expected headwinds from Christmas and New Year's Eve falling on Monday as opposed to Sunday in 2017. For the quarter, both DIY and professional were contributors to our comparable sales -- store sales growth, with professional contributing -- continuing to outperform DIY. Average ticket value drove comparable store sales growth due to increasing parts complexity, same SKU inflation of approximately 2% and a higher mix of hard parts on the DIY side as customers attempt to defer noncritical repairs and maintenance as pricing increases across the economy put pressure on many of our DIY customers' wallets.

接下來，我們將介紹第四季業績以及支撐我們2019年業績指引的關鍵預期。第四季同店銷售額成長3.3%，符合我們的預期。從同店銷售成長的角度來看，10 月和 11 月表現強勁，12 月則較為疲軟，略有下降。12 月份的業績未達到預期，部分原因是季節性業務提前到了 11 月份，因為 2018 年本季度我們比上一年更早經歷了寒冷天氣，再加上 12 月份沒有出現惡劣天氣，而過去兩個 12 月份我們都面臨著比較困難的情況。2017 年聖誕節和新年夜是星期一而不是星期日，這也給我們帶來了比預期更大的不利影響。本季度，DIY 和專業服務都對我們的同店銷售額（門市銷售成長）做出了貢獻，其中專業服務貢獻更大，繼續優於 DIY 服務。由於零件複雜性增加、同 SKU 價格上漲約 2% 以及 DIY 方面硬零件佔比增加，平均客單價推動了同店銷售額的成長。這是因為隨著經濟整體價格上漲，許多 DIY 客戶的錢包都面臨壓力，客戶試圖推遲非關鍵維修和保養。

For the full year 2019, we're establishing our comparable store sales guidance at 3% to 5%. We anticipate that the demand drivers for the automotive aftermarket industry will remain solid as miles driven grows at a modest pace, supported by continued record high levels of employment, with gas prices remaining in a reasonably positive range. We expect the continuation of the trend we have seen for several years, where average ticket growth is driven by increasing complexity of parts on newer model year vehicles and also expect additional top line growth from same SKU inflation, similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter. This level of inflation is based on known input cost pressures and does not take into account additional tariffs or other unknown factors. We expect DIY ticket counts to continue to be under pressure as our more economically constrained customers feel the pinch of rising prices across the economy and react by attempting to defer repairs or maintenance when possible. We expect continued solid growth on the professional customer ticket counts as we continue to consolidate the market and these end user consumers tend to be better able to cope with increasing prices. As normal, we expect pricing in the industry to be rational and weather patterns to be average.

2019 年全年，我們的同店銷售額預期成長目標為 3% 至 5%。我們預計，隨著汽車行駛里程溫和成長，加上就業水準持續創歷史新高，以及汽油價格維持在相對有利的範圍內，汽車售後市場產業的需求驅動因素將保持穩健。我們預計過去幾年看到的趨勢將繼續，即平均客單價增長是由新車型零件日益複雜的情況推動的，同時我們也預計，與第四季度類似，相同 SKU 價格上漲將帶來額外的營收成長。這種通貨膨脹水準是基於已知的投入成本壓力，並未考慮額外的關稅或其他未知因素。我們預計，隨著經濟條件較為緊張的客戶感受到經濟整體物價上漲的壓力，他們會盡可能推遲維修或保養，因此自助維修的訂單數量將繼續面臨壓力。我們預計，隨著市場持續整合，專業客戶的訂單數量將持續穩定成長，因為這些終端用戶消費者往往更能承受價格上漲。與往常一樣，我們預計行業定價將保持理性，天氣模式也將處於平均水平。

For the first quarter, we're establishing a comparable store sales guidance range of 3% to 5%, which is in line with our expectation for the full year. We remain extremely confident in our team's ability to provide industry-leading customer service and gain market share and are pleased with the solid start to 2019 we have seen thus far in the first quarter.

第一季度，我們設定的同店銷售額成長預期為 3% 至 5%，這與我們對全年的預期一致。我們對團隊提供領先業界的客戶服務和贏得市場份額的能力仍然充滿信心，並且對2019年第一季迄今取得的良好開局感到滿意。

For the fourth quarter and the full year, gross margin, as a percent of sales, was 53.3% and 52.8%, respectively. The fourth quarter gross margin is higher than the full year due to normal seasonality and sales mix related to winter weather. Full year gross margin was in line with our guidance throughout the year. For 2019, we're setting our guidance range for gross margin at 52.7% to 53.2% of sales, which is a 20 basis point increase from our 2018 guidance range. Assumed in our guidance are continued incremental improvements in supplier agreements, our continued ability to pass along acquisition cost increases to the end consumer and the leverage on our fixed distribution cost and higher sales volumes. These gains will be partially offset by continued pressure from distribution wages and freight costs. Tom will provide more additional gross margin details in his comments.

第四季和全年毛利率（佔銷售額的百分比）分別為 53.3% 和 52.8%。由於正常的季節性因素和與冬季天氣相關的銷售組合，第四季度毛利率高於全年毛利率。全年毛利率與我們全年的預期相符。2019 年，我們將毛利率預期範圍設定為銷售額的 52.7% 至 53.2%，比 2018 年的預期範圍提高了 20 個基點。我們的業績預期基於以下假設：供應商協議持續逐步改善，我們能夠繼續將採購成本的增加轉嫁給最終消費者，以及我們利用固定分銷成本和更高的銷售量來提高業績。這些收益將被配送工資和貨運成本的持續壓力部分抵銷。湯姆將在評論中提供更多毛利率的詳細資訊。

Fourth quarter operating profit, as a percent of sales, came in at 18.5%, and the full year was 19%. Both were at the top end of our expectations. On a year-over-year comparison, operating profit declined by 19 basis points as we directed approximately 30% of our tax savings from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 back into the business with a focus on our in-store and omnichannel efforts. For 2019, we anticipate our operating profit will be in the range of 18.7% to 19.2% of sales. Jeff will discuss our SG&A expectations in more detail. However, we expect to see leverage on our fixed cost on higher sales offset by a more inflationary cost environment and continued focus on strengthening our in-store customer service and omnichannel experience.

第四季營業利潤佔銷售額的18.5%，全年營業利潤佔銷售額的19%。兩者都超出了我們的預期。與去年同期相比，營業利潤下降了 19 個基點，因為我們將 2017 年《減稅與就業法案》節省的約 30% 的稅收重新投入到業務中，重點放在我們的店內和全通路努力上。我們預計 2019 年的營業利潤率將在銷售額的 18.7% 至 19.2% 之間。Jeff 將更詳細地討論我們對銷售、一般及行政費用的預期。然而，我們預期更高的銷售額帶來的固定成本槓桿效應將被更高的通膨成本環境以及我們持續專注於加強店內客戶服務和全通路體驗所抵消。

For the fourth quarter, earnings per share of $3.72 represented an increase of 5.7%. And for the full year 2018, earnings per share of $16.10 was an increase of 27.1%. Excluding the impact of the excess tax benefit from stock options on our tax rate and the revaluation of our deferred tax liability in the fourth quarter of 2017, our quarterly and annual earnings per share increased 34.5% and 35.8%, respectively. Tom will provide more information on our tax rate in his prepared comments.

第四季每股收益為 3.72 美元，年增 5.7%。2018 年全年，每股收益為 16.10 美元，成長了 27.1%。剔除股票選擇權帶來的超額稅收優惠對我們稅率的影響以及 2017 年第四季度遞延所得稅負債的重估，我們的季度和年度每股收益分別增長了 34.5% 和 35.8%。湯姆將在事先準備好的演講稿中提供更多關於我們稅率的資訊。

For the first quarter of 2019, we're establishing our earnings per share guidance at a range of $3.92 to $4.02. And for the year, our guidance is $17.37 to $17.47. Our quarterly and full year guidance includes an estimate for the excess tax benefit from stock options and the impact of shares repurchased through this call but does not include any additional share repurchases.

2019 年第一季度，我們設定的每股盈餘預期為 3.92 美元至 4.02 美元。對於全年，我們的預期是每股收益 17.37 美元至 17.47 美元。我們的季度和全年業績指引包括對股票選擇權帶來的超額稅收優惠以及透過此選擇權回購股票的影響的估計，但不包括任何額外的股票回購。

Before I turn the call over to Jeff, I would like to again acknowledge the outstanding contributions of our entire team. Our track record of 26 consecutive years of record comparable store sales growth, record revenue and operating income is the direct result of your hard work and commitment, and I have every confidence we will extend that streak in 2019.

在將電話交給傑夫之前，我想再次感謝我們整個團隊所做的傑出貢獻。我們連續 26 年創下同店銷售額成長、營收和營業利潤成長的紀錄，這直接歸功於你們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，我完全有信心我們在 2019 年延續這一佳績。

I'll now turn the call over to Jeff Shaw. Jeff?

現在我將把電話交給傑夫·肖。傑夫？

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'd also like to thank Team O'Reilly for delivering another record-breaking year. Your commitment to consistent, excellent customer service has always been the strength of our company and will continue to be our strength in the future.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。我還要感謝奧萊利團隊，他們又一次創造了破紀錄的佳績。您對始終如一的優質客戶服務的承諾一直是我們公司的優勢所在，並將繼續是我們未來的優勢所在。

At the beginning of the year, we planned to reinvest a portion of our savings from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act back into the business, with a target of 70 basis points of additional SG&A spend. We successfully executed on that plan. And through solid expense control and better leverage from a solid 6.2% increase in sales, our SG&A only delevered 46 basis points, coming in at 33.8% of sales for the year. For the full year, SG&A per store increased 3.4%, which was near the top end of our beginning-of-the-year guidance of 3% to 3.5% of sales and is consistent with what we would expect with comparable sales at the higher end of our guidance range. The increase is primarily attributable to variable expenses and variable compensation at virtually every level of the company as we structure our pay plans for our team members to run it like they own it. For 2019, we're expecting SG&A to continue to grow at a rate higher than our historical norms of 1.5% to 2%. Looking at our 2019 G&A spend, we expect to continue to aggressively pursue our in-store and omnichannel goals and anticipate continued pressure to variable cost, especially payroll, from the current inflationary environment and record low unemployment rates, which we expect to partially offset by better leverage on our fixed cost. As a result, we're establishing our initial G&A guidance at a 2.5% to 3% increase per store.

年初時，我們計劃將《減稅與就業法案》節省下來的部分資金再投資於業務，目標是增加 70 個基點的銷售、一般及行政費用。我們成功執行了該計劃。透過有效的費用控制和銷售額穩定成長 6.2% 帶來的更好槓桿作用，我們的銷售、一般及行政費用僅下降了 46 個基點，佔全年銷售額的 33.8%。全年來看，每家店的銷售、管理及行政費用增長了 3.4%，接近我們年初給出的銷售額佔比 3% 至 3.5% 的預期上限，這與我們預期中同店銷售額處於預期範圍上限的情況相符。成長主要歸因於公司幾乎每個層級的可變費用和可變薪酬，因為我們為團隊成員制定了薪酬計劃，讓他們像主人翁一樣經營公司。2019 年，我們預期銷售、一般及行政費用將持續以高於以往 1.5% 至 2% 的速度成長。回顧 2019 年的一般及行政支出，我們預計將繼續積極推進我們的店內和全通路目標，並預計當前的通膨環境和創紀錄的低失業率將持續對可變成本（尤其是工資）構成壓力，我們預計透過更好地利用固定成本，可以部分抵消這些壓力。因此，我們初步將一般及行政費用指導目標設定為每家店成長 2.5% 至 3%。

For the year, we successfully achieved our goal of opening 200 net new stores. We set our 2019 new store goal to open between 200 and 210 net new stores on our third quarter call. Since that time, we purchased Bennett Auto Supply in South Florida. And because of the additional work it will take to convert those stores, we'll end up in the lower portion of the new store opening range, excluding the Bennett stores. For the acquired Bennett stores, our plan is to merge 13 of these stores into existing O'Reilly stores and convert the remaining 20 into O'Reilly stores in the first half of the year. Due to the impact from transitioning business during the merger process, the remaining 20 stores will not enter our comparable store sales base until January of 2020. We expect to incur between $4 million and $5 million related to closing down the 13 stores, the Bennett DC and the offices. And these costs are an additional headwind built into our SG&A growth per store assumptions.

今年，我們成功實現了淨增200家門市的目標。我們在第三季財報電話會議上設定了 2019 年新店開幕目標，淨增加 200 至 210 家門市。從那時起，我們收購了位於南佛羅裡達州的 Bennett 汽車用品公司。由於改造這些門市需要額外的工作，因此，除了 Bennett 門市之外，我們最終將處於新店開幕範圍的下限。對於收購的 Bennett 門市，我們的計劃是在今年上半年將其中 13 家門市併入現有的 O'Reilly 門市，並將剩餘的 20 家門市改造成 O'Reilly 門市。由於合併過程中業務轉型的影響，剩餘的 20 家門市要到 2020 年 1 月才會納入我們的同店銷售基數。關閉這 13 家門市、Bennett 配送中心和辦公室預計將產生 400 萬至 500 萬美元的損失。這些成本是我們在每家店的銷售、管理及行政費用成長假設中額外增加的不利因素。

Our capital expenditures for the year were $504 million, which was squarely in the middle of our beginning of the year CapEx guidance of $490 million to $520 million. For 2019, we have a number of large projects, and we expect CapEx to increase to a range of $625 million to $675 million. This is a big step up from 2018 and would represent our largest CapEx investment in company history. So I'll provide a little color around the additional projects that are creating this sizable increase.

本年度資本支出為 5.04 億美元，正好處於年初資本支出指引目標 4.9 億美元至 5.2 億美元的中間值。2019 年，我們有許多大型項目，預計資本支出將增加到 6.25 億美元至 6.75 億美元之間。這比 2018 年有了很大的進步，也將代表公司史上最大的資本支出投資。因此，我將簡要介紹造成這一顯著增長的其他項目。

First, we have our 2 announced and ongoing distribution projects. A new location in Twinsburg, Ohio, just south of Cleveland; and an upgrade in Lebanon, Tennessee, just east of Nashville. The new larger Nashville DC will allow us to convert the current Knoxville DC into a super hub and then consolidate both the existing Nashville and Knoxville DCs. Our CapEx plan also includes an additional DC project starting during the year, and we'll provide you the details once we close on that property later in the year.

首先，我們有 2 個已公佈和正在進行的配送項目。在俄亥俄州特溫斯堡（位於克利夫蘭以南）開設新店；並在田納西州黎巴嫩（位於納許維爾以東）進行升級改造。新的、更大的納許維爾配送中心將使我們能夠把現有的諾克斯維爾配送中心改造成一個超級樞紐，然後合併現有的納許維爾和諾克斯維爾配送中心。我們的資本支出計劃還包括今年啟動的另一個數據中心項目，我們將在今年稍後完成該物業的收購後向您提供詳細資訊。

Second, with the conversion of the Bennett stores, we'll have new store CapEx for between 220 and 230 new stores this year.

其次，隨著 Bennett 門市的改造，我們今年將有 220 至 230 家新店的資本支出。

Next, we continue to invest heavily in our omnichannel experience. This includes, but is not limited to, our online functionality, our in-store experience and distribution systems to facilitate multiple delivery options to meet customers' desires. And finally, as both our installed store base and distribution network grow, we're committed to spending the CapEx required to keep these assets operating at peak performance and investing in new tools and technology to continue to take market share. We have always geared our business model to generate long-term, sustainable growth that is solidly profitable. We're very confident our SG&A spend and our capital investments in 2019 will put us in a great position to continue our history of success. However, we're an extremely proactive and detail-oriented company. And should situations change or additional opportunities arise, we'll make changes to our investment strategy on a store-by-store, project-by-project basis.

接下來，我們將繼續大力投資全通路體驗。這包括但不限於我們的線上功能、店內體驗和配送系統，以便提供多種配送選擇，滿足客戶的需求。最後，隨著我們已安裝的門市數量和分銷網絡不斷增長，我們致力於投入必要的資本支出，以保持這些資產以最佳性能運行，並投資於新的工具和技術，以繼續擴大市場份額。我們一直以來都將商業模式調整為實現長期、可持續且獲利穩定的成長。我們非常有信心，2019 年的銷售、一般及行政費用支出和資本投資將使我們處於有利地位，從而延續我們以往的成功歷史。然而，我們是一家非常積極且注重細節的公司。如果情況改變或出現其他機會，我們將逐店、逐項目調整我們的投資策略。

As I conclude my comments, I'd like to, again, thank the entire O'Reilly team for a solid year in 2018. We're well positioned in 2019 to capitalize on the solid macroeconomic factors that underpin our business. And we look forward to continue to

最後，我要再次感謝 O'Reilly 團隊在 2018 年的辛勤付出。2019年，我們已做好充分準備，利用支撐我們業務的穩健宏觀經濟因素，實現發展目標。我們期待繼續

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（技術難題）

of strong results in 2019 by rolling up our sleeve and earning our customers' business by providing excellent customer service each and every day in all of our stores across the country.

2019 年，我們擼起袖子加油乾，在全國各地的所有門市每天提供優質的客戶服務，贏得了客戶的信賴，從而取得了強勁的業績。

Now I'll turn the call over to Tom.

現在我把電話交給湯姆。

Thanks, Jeff. Now we'll take a closer look at our quarterly results and our guidance for 2019. For the quarter, sales increased $124 million, comprised of $71 million increase in comp store sales, a $50 million increase in non-comp store sales, a $6 million increase in non-comp non-store sales and a $3 million decrease from closed stores. For 2019, we expect our total revenues to be between $10 billion and $10.3 billion.

謝謝你，傑夫。現在我們將仔細看看我們的季度業績和2019年的業績展望。本季銷售額成長 1.24 億美元，其中同店銷售額成長 7,100 萬美元，非同店銷售額成長 5,000 萬美元，非同店非門市銷售額成長 600 萬美元，以及因門市關閉而減少 300 萬美元。我們預計 2019 年的總收入將在 100 億美元至 103 億美元之間。

Our gross margin was up 41 basis points for the quarter, as we experienced stable merchandise margins and benefited from the LIFO comparison to the prior year. We do not see a LIFO charge during the quarter versus a $3 million charge last year. For the full year, we did not experience a LIFO charge versus a $22 million charge in the prior year. For 2019, we do not anticipate a LIFO charge as we expect inflation will continue to put upward pressure on aggregate acquisition costs. On a year-over-year basis, we expect gross margins for the first 2 quarters of the year to see the largest improvement as we receive a benefit from selling through beyond and inventory that was purchased prior to the recent tariff-driven acquisition price increases and corresponding retail and wholesale price increases.

本季我們的毛利率提高了 41 個基點，這得益於穩定的商品毛利率以及與去年同期相比的後進先出法 (LIFO) 比較。本季我們沒有看到任何後進先出法（LIFO）費用，而去年同期則有 300 萬美元的費用。全年來看，我們沒有產生後進先出法（LIFO）費用，而前一年則產生了 2,200 萬美元的費用。2019 年，我們預計不會產生後進先出法費用，因為我們預期通貨膨脹將繼續對總收購成本構成上行壓力。與去年同期相比，我們預計今年前兩個季度的毛利率將出現最大幅度的改善，因為我們將受益於銷售超出預期範圍的產品以及在最近關稅驅動的採購價格上漲和相應的零售及批發價格上漲之前購買的庫存。

Our fourth quarter effective tax rate was 23.6% of pretax income and was comprised of a base rate of 24%, reduced by a 0.4% benefit from share-based compensation. This compares to the fourth quarter 2017 rate of 19.8% of pretax income, which was comprised of a base tax rate of 37.4%, reduced by a 3.5% benefit for share-based compensation and a benefit of 14.1% or $53 million related to initial measurement -- remeasurement of our Federal deferred tax liability from a tax rate of 35% down to the new 21% rate, in accordance with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. For the full year, our effective tax rate was 21.8% of pretax income, comprised of a base rate of 23.9%, reduced by 2.1% for share-based compensation. For the full year of 2019, we expect an effective tax rate of 23.5%, comprised of a base rate of 24.1%, reduced by a benefit of 0.6% for share-based compensation. We expect our base rate to be relatively consistent, with the exception of the third quarter, which may be lowered due to the totaling of certain open tax periods. Also, variations in the tax benefit from share-based compensation will create fluctuations in our quarterly tax rate.

我們第四季的實際稅率為稅前收入的 23.6%，其中基本稅率為 24%，扣除了基於股份的薪酬帶來的 0.4% 的收益。相較之下，2017 年第四季稅前收入的稅率為 19.8%，其中包括 37.4% 的基本稅率，減去 3.5% 的股份支付收益，以及 14.1% 或 5300 萬美元的初始計量收益——根據 2017 年《減稅與就業法案》，將我們的聯邦稅率從 25% 遞延的 25%。全年實際稅率為稅前收入的 21.8%，其中基本稅率為 23.9%，因股權激勵而減少 2.1%。2019 年全年，我們預計實際稅率為 23.5%，其中基本稅率為 24.1%，扣除基於股份的薪酬優惠 0.6% 後即可實現。我們預計基準稅率將保持相對穩定，但第三季除外，由於某些未結稅期的累計，第三季稅率可能會降低。此外，股權激勵帶來的稅收優惠的變化也會導致我們季度稅率的波動。

Now we move on to free cash flow and the components that drove our results for the year and our expectations for 2019. Free cash flow for 2018 was $1.2 billion, which was a $300 million increase from the prior year. The increase was driven by higher operating profit and lower cash taxes, offset, in part, by higher capital expenditures and cash interest. In 2019, we expect free cash flow to be in the range of $1 billion to $1.1 billion, with the year-over-year decrease due to higher CapEx and higher cash taxes, offset by increased operating profit. Inventory per store at the end of the quarter with $612,000, which was a 2% increase from the end of 2017. The increase was at the top end of our guidance as cost increases and the year-end acquisition of Bennett pushed the metric to the top end of the range. That said, our gross inventory levels were well managed throughout the year as our ongoing goal is to make sure we grow per-store inventory at a lower rate than the comparable store sales growth we generate. For 2019, we expect per-store inventory to grow between 2% and 2.5%, with the acquisition cost increases and the fourth quarter opening of the Cleveland DC putting pressure on the growth percentage.

現在讓我們來看看自由現金流以及推動我們今年業績的各項因素，以及我們對 2019 年的預期。2018 年自由現金流為 12 億美元，比前一年增加了 3 億美元。成長主要由營業利潤增加和現金稅收減少所推動，但部分被更高的資本支出和現金利息所抵銷。2019 年，我們預計自由現金流將在 10 億美元至 11 億美元之間，年減的原因是資本支出增加和現金稅增加，但營業利潤增加可以抵消這種影響。本季末每家門市的庫存為 612,000 美元，比 2017 年底成長了 2%。由於成本增加以及年底收購 Bennett，該指標達到了我們預期範圍的上限。儘管如此，我們全年都很好地控制了總庫存水平，因為我們始終的目標是確保每家門市的庫存成長速度低於我們產生的同店銷售成長速度。2019 年，我們預計單店庫存將成長 2% 至 2.5%，但採購成本增加以及克里夫蘭配送中心在第四季開業將對成長百分比構成壓力。

Our AP to inventory ratio at the end of the quarter was 106%, which is where we ended 2017. We were slightly below the anticipated level of 107% as the acquisition of Bennett and slower December sales pressured the ratio. For 2019, we expect to remain flat at 106% of inventory.

本季末，我們的應付帳款與庫存比率為 106%，與 2017 年末的水準相同。由於收購 Bennett 以及 12 月銷售放緩，該比率略低於預期的 107%。2019年，我們預期庫存水準將維持在106%不變。

Moving on to debt. We finished the fourth quarter with an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.23x as compared to a ratio of 2.12x at the end of 2017. The increase in our leverage ratio reflects the $750 million 10-year bonds we issued in May and the incremental borrowings on our $1.2 billion unsecured revolving credit facility. We're below our stated leverage target 2.5x, and we'll approach this number when appropriate.

接下來談談債務問題。在第四季末，我們調整後的負債與 EBITDA 比率為 2.23 倍，而 2017 年底的比率為 2.12 倍。我們的槓桿率上升反映了我們在 5 月發行的 7.5 億美元 10 年期債券以及我們 12 億美元無擔保循環信貸額度的新增借款。我們目前的槓桿率低於既定目標 2.5 倍，我們會在適當的時候接近這個目標。

We continue to execute our share repurchase program. And for 2018, we repurchased 6.1 million shares at an average share price of $282.80, for a total investment of $1.71 billion. Subsequent to the end of the year through the date of our press release, we repurchased 0.7 million shares at an average price of $341.20. We remain very confident that the average repurchase price is supported by expected discounted future cash flows of our business. And we continue to view our buyback program as an effective means of returning excess capital to our shareholders.

我們將繼續執行股票回購計畫。2018 年，我們以平均每股 282.80 美元的價格回購了 610 萬股股票，總投資額為 17.1 億美元。從年底到我們發布新聞稿之日，我們以平均每股 341.20 美元的價格回購了 70 萬股股票。我們仍然非常有信心，平均回購價格能夠得到我們業務預期未來現金流折現值的支持。我們仍然認為股票回購計畫是向股東返還多餘資本的有效途徑。

Finally, before I open up the call to your questions, I'd like to thank the O'Reilly team for their dedication to the company and our customers.

最後，在正式開始回答大家的問題之前，我想感謝 O'Reilly 團隊對公司和客戶的奉獻。

This concludes our prepared comments. And at this time, I'd like to ask Vanessa, the operator, to turn on the line, and we'll be happy to answer your questions.

我們的發言到此結束。現在，請接線生瓦妮莎接通電話，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we have our first question from Christopher Horvers with JP Morgan.

（操作員說明）我們收到來自摩根大通的克里斯托弗·霍弗斯提出的第一個問題。

Can you talk a little bit about the regional performance that you saw during the quarter, and how did that compare to earlier than -- earlier in the year? And related to that, can you expand upon your quarter-to-date comments? Obviously, a lot of variability around the winter, some tough compares. But overall, what are you seeing quarter-to-date? And how would you assess the winter so far compared to sort of history and last year?

您能否談談本季您在該地區的業績表現，以及與今年早些時候相比情況如何？另外，您能否詳細說明您本季迄今的評論？顯然，冬季期間變化很大，有些情況很難比較。但總體而言，您在本季迄今的觀察結果如何？那麼，與歷史數據和去年相比，您如何評價今年的冬季？

Yes. This is Jeff. Let me take the first half of that and then flip it over to Tom or Greg. As far as regional performance, really, our regional performance was in line with our expectations and pretty solid across the majority of the country. The central part of the country was a little bit softer than the rest, really, due to just lack of winter weather in a lot of those markets. And also, we had a little bit of headwind down south from the post-hurricane numbers that we compared against.

是的。這是傑夫。讓我先說前半部分，然後把剩下的部分交給湯姆或格雷格。就區域業績而言，我們的區域業績確實符合預期，並且在全國大部分地區都表現得相當穩健。該國中部地區的市場表現比其他地區略微疲軟一些，這主要是因為這些地區許多地方缺乏冬季天氣。此外，我們從颶風過後的數據中發現，南部地區也存在一些不利因素。

Yes. So Chris, from a cadence standpoint, what -- although we don't disclose what our actual comp numbers or trends are on a month-by-month basis, what I would tell you is we feel good about our 3% to 5% guide. We talked about December being the softest month of the quarter. And as we moved into 2019, we've seen a more typical weather pattern. We would view this winter as a more normal winter. We've had ups and downs, we've had spikes along the way in different areas of the country. And as normal, where we have those spikes, we have improved sales related to the winter weather spikes. But overall, we feel -- we continue to feel good about our 3% to 5% guide for the quarter.

是的。所以克里斯，從節奏的角度來看——雖然我們不會按月透露我們實際的佣金數字或趨勢，但我可以告訴你的是，我們對 3% 到 5% 的指導方針感到滿意。我們討論過十二月是本季最淡的月份。進入 2019 年後，我們看到了更典型的天氣模式。我們會把今年的冬天看成是比較正常的冬天。我們一路走來經歷了起伏，全國各地也出現了高峰。和往常一樣，在出現銷售高峰的地區，冬季天氣帶來的銷售高峰也帶來了銷售額的成長。但總的來說，我們仍然對本季 3% 至 5% 的成長預期感到樂觀。

Understood. And then, as my follow-up, can you -- Tom, can remind us of what the inflation was for -- in totality, for 2018? I think you mentioned 2% in the fourth quarter. What was that over the year? And how are you thinking about the overall inflationary environment in 2019?

明白了。然後，作為我的後續問題，湯姆，你能否提醒我們一下，2018 年的通貨膨脹總體上是針對什麼的？我想你有提到第四季是2%。過去一年發生了什麼事？您如何看待2019年的整體通膨環境？

It ramped up through 2018. No significant numbers in the first and second quarter. So we ramped up to 1%, 1.5% in the third quarter too. So I'd say little above 1% in total. When we look at 2019, in Greg's prepared comments, our expectation is we're going to see a similar number that we saw in the fourth quarter, which was 2%.

2018 年，這股趨勢愈演愈烈。第一季和第二季均無顯著數據。因此，我們在第三季也逐步提高到 1%，1.5%。所以我覺得總共略高於1%。展望 2019 年，根據 Greg 的準備發言，我們預計我們將看到與第四季度類似的數字，即 2%。

We have our next question from Seth Sigman with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的塞思·西格曼。

I want to follow up on that inflation point. So the 200 basis points of same SKU inflation that you're expecting in '19. Just to clarify, is that -- that's the net impact on comps or -- so in other words, are you considering the volume offsets within that as well?

我想就通貨膨脹問題再談一番。所以，您預計 2019 年同 SKU 價格將上漲 200 個基點。為了澄清一下，這是——這是對同類產品的淨影響，還是——換句話說，您是否也考慮了其中的銷售抵消因素？

So that would be our expectation for what's going to drive our total inflation number that goes into our average ticket. As we've seen over the last 10 or 15 years, as the new model years roll on, they have more expensive parts, primarily based on technology that's in those parts. And that's been a tailwind to average ticket over the last decade. We think that's going to be augmented by 2% in totality in 2019.

所以，這就是我們對影響平均票價總通膨率的預期。在過去 10 到 15 年裡，我們看到，隨著新車型的推出，它們的零件越來越貴，這主要是因為這些零件中包含了更先進的技術。過去十年，這一直對平均票價起到推波助瀾的作用。我們認為，到 2019 年，這一數字將總共增加 2%。

Got you. Okay. And then, on the DIY trends, you've talked about that for a couple of quarters now, some level of caution around the DIY business suggesting that maybe that consumers have been deferring maintenance. Any signs that, that may be starting to normalize? If you could give us some more color on what you think is driving that deferral and what needs to happen for that to change, that would be helpful.

抓到你了。好的。然後，關於 DIY 趨勢，您已經談論了好幾個季度了，DIY 行業出現了一些謹慎情緒，這表明消費者可能一直在推遲維護工作。有跡象表明這種情況可能正在開始正常化嗎？如果您能詳細說明您認為導致這種延誤的原因以及需要採取哪些措施才能改變這種狀況，那將對我們很有幫助。

Yes. I think a big part -- we talked last year about fuel prices maybe impacting discretionary spending. This year, we're cautious that inflation may, again, have an impact on discretionary spending for that lower-income DIY customer. That customer would have to make necessary repairs to keep their car running and to get them to work, to the grocery store and what have you. But from a discretionary standpoint, when you get to items like routine maintenance, deferring oil changes, longer extended oil change periods, those things you can push out a little longer. Filters, things like that. And your car still runs fine. You're just not following the manufacturer's recommended schedules for doing those. So I think the DIY customers that are on the lower end of the wage scale and are more economically challenged, as we said, they're going to have to make those breakage-related repairs, but some of those repairs and maintenance things that are somewhat discretionary, they're going to be likely to push those off.

是的。我認為很大一部分原因是——我們去年討論過燃油價格可能會影響可自由支配支出。今年，我們擔心通貨膨脹可能會再次對低收入DIY客戶的可支配支出產生影響。那位顧客必須進行必要的維修，才能讓他的車繼續行駛，並能讓他去上班、去雜貨店等等。但從可自由支配的角度來看，對於日常維護、延遲換油、延長換油週期等事項，這些都可以稍微延後一下。過濾器之類的東西。你的車開起來一切正常。你根本沒有按照製造商建議的時間表進行操作。所以我認為，那些收入較低、經濟狀況較為拮据的DIY客戶，正如我們所說，他們不得不進行那些與損壞相關的維修，但有些維修和保養工作，那些屬於可有可無的，他們可能會推遲進行。

Our next question comes from Elizabeth Suzuki with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的伊麗莎白·鈴木。

Throughout 2018, you guys have guided to a comp of 2% to 4%, and now you're looking for '19 at 3% to 5%. Given that we still have a fair amount of winter left, which could either end up being favorable or unfavorable versus last year's normal winter, and you mentioned that you think this year is looking fairly normal as well. And what are the other factors that are really driving the outlook for an acceleration in comps?

2018 年，你們一直將業績目標設定在 2% 到 4% 之間，現在你們希望 2019 年的業績目標達到 3% 到 5%。鑑於我們還有相當長的冬季時間，這可能與去年正常的冬季相比有利也可能不利，而您也提到您認為今年的冬季看起來也相當正常。還有哪些因素真正推動了同業競爭加速成長的前景？

Yes. So a lot of things we talked about, Liz. It's we -- fuel cost has come down over the past several weeks. And I think the expectation is that fuel prices will continue to be lower this year than prior year. And that will be supportive of increasing miles driven. If you look at the whole industry backdrop, the fact that employment rates are higher, the economy is more stable, those things just create an industry backdrop that's more favorable. And you add that to Tom's point about average ticket growing because of a combination of parts complexity, the cost of the more technology-related parts on newer cars and the inflation tailwind we had, we felt good about 3% to 5% guide. One of the things I would add to that, and it's not really related to the guide, but it sure makes us feel a lot better about where we are is, we had our Annual Leadership Conference in Dallas back in mid-January. And in that conference, we had about 6,900 of O'Reilly team members, all of our store managers, district managers, regional managers were there. And we do that every year, but it sure felt different when we went into conference this year than it has in the past year or 2 because there was just a lot of excitement, a lot of positive attitudes coming from our store managers when they got there. And we really focused that week on things like ownership, running the business like you own it. We talked about commitment of running and driving a profitable business. We talked about customer service. And our teams left that conference really motivated. And we feel like that they're out there on the streets, driving sales and providing even a higher level of customer service than they may have done last year.

是的。所以我們談了很多事情，莉茲。是我們——過去幾週燃油成本有所下降。我認為，今年的燃油價格預計將繼續低於去年。這將有助於增加行駛里程。從整個產業背景來看，就業率更高，經濟更穩定，這些因素共同創造了一個更有利的產業環境。再加上湯姆提到的由於零件複雜性、新車上更多技術相關零件的成本以及我們遇到的通膨利好等因素導致平均車票價格上漲的觀點，我們對 3% 到 5% 的指導價感到滿意。我還要補充一點，雖然這與指南本身關係不大，但它確實讓我們對目前的狀況感覺好多了，那就是我們在一月中旬在達拉斯舉行了年度領導力會議。在那次會議上，我們約有 6900 名 O'Reilly 團隊成員，我們所有的門市經理、地區經理和區域經理都出席了。我們每年都會這樣做，但今年參加會議的感覺與過去一兩年截然不同，因為我們的門市經理們到達會場時都非常興奮，態度也很積極。那一週我們主要關注的是所有權之類的事情，要像經營自己的企業一樣管理它。我們討論了經營和推動獲利業務所需的投入。我們討論了客戶服務。我們的團隊帶著滿滿的動力離開了那次會議。我們感覺他們走上街頭，推動銷售，並提供比去年更高水準的客戶服務。

So in an environment that -- where the industry's potentially growing kind of mid-single digit, because it usually does like 2% to 3% or maybe a little bit better, do you feel like you can continue to gain market share in 2019?

因此，在產業成長率可能只有個位數中段（通常為 2% 到 3%，或略高一些）的環境下，您覺得您能在 2019 年繼續獲得市場份額嗎？

Yes, we do. I mean, there -- again, to Greg's point, I mean, our philosophy, our business model, our strategic distribution network, I mean, our programs. I mean, we arm our teams with a lot of tools. But what happens, 1 customer and 1 store at a time. We're focused on fundamental execution on both the do it for me and the DIY side each and every day in each one of our markets.

是的，我們有。我的意思是，再次回到格雷格的觀點，我的意思是，我們的理念、我們的商業模式、我們的策略分銷網絡，我的意思是，我們的專案。我的意思是，我們為團隊配備了許多工具。但事情就是這樣，一次只能服務一位顧客，一家門市。我們專注於在每個市場中，每天在「代客泊車」和「自助服務」方面都做到基本面的執行。

Our next question is from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙古特曼。

Tom, I wanted to ask you first about the flow-through. And so in the past, when you guided, you've typically allowed sales to what drives the upside or downside to your forecast. And I want to just ask you about 2019, if there's any greater likelihood that margins could surprise or it's really dictated by where you end up within that sales guidance?

湯姆，我想先問你關於流通的問題。因此，過去當你進行指導時，你通常會讓銷售額決定你預測的上升或下降幅度。我想問關於 2019 年的問題，利潤率是否有可能超出預期，還是說最終結果取決於銷售預期是否達到預期？

As a multiunit retailer with relatively high-fixed cost, because of the service component of our business, sales will be the key to leveraging our operating profit performance. To the extent that new sales don't come in as high as we'd like, we have levers to pull, although we won't do anything in the short term that will impact long-term relationships. On the upside, we'll continue to -- we'll see leverage, but we want to make sure that demand is there. We're providing a level of customer service that builds those long-term relationships.

作為一家固定成本相對較高的多門市零售商，由於我們業務中包含服務成分，銷售額將是提高我們營業利潤的關鍵。如果新銷售額沒有達到我們預期的水平，我們還有一些應對措施，儘管我們短期內不會採取任何會影響長期關係的措施。從積極的方面來看，我們將繼續下去——我們會看到槓桿作用，但我們希望確保需求存在。我們提供高水準的客戶服務，旨在建立長期的合作關係。

Got it. Okay. And then secondly, for Greg, I wanted to ask about MAP or whatever they call EMRP pricing that's out there. We're hearing for more brands that -- or some even distributors that more brands are going towards this direction, basically controlling price. Curious if you've seen that, too, sort of what's changing? And I guess, is that price discipline being shown across different channels where we're just not seeing as, I don't know big, or as problematic pricing differences as there could be.

知道了。好的。其次，我想問 Greg 關於 MAP 或他們稱為 EMRP 定價的那些東西。我們聽說越來越多的品牌——甚至一些分銷商——正在朝著這個方向發展，基本上是透過控制價格來實現的。很好奇你是否也注意到了這種變化？我想，這或許是因為不同管道都展現出了價格紀律，我們沒有看到像可能的那樣大的、或者說像可能的那樣存在價格差異問題。

Yes. I mean, one of our hot bugs with our supplies for couple of years now has been for them to protect their brand and control their pricing online. And there were a couple of suppliers, a couple of years ago, in 2017, that they really pioneered this for the industry. And we really had a slow start to get other suppliers to come on board. So late 2018, we had 2 to 3 major suppliers come onboard. And so far, in 2019, we've had several additional suppliers to come in. So whether it's EMRP pricing program or a MAP pricing program or a unilateral pricing program, different suppliers are taking different approaches based on recommendations from their legal department or council. We are gaining some traction in that respect. And I think we'll see more tighter controls across the industry for online sales going forward.

是的。我的意思是，在過去幾年裡，我們供應商一直非常重視的一個問題是，他們應該保護自己的品牌並控制其線上價格。幾年前，也就是 2017 年，有幾家供應商真正率先在業界推出了這項技術。我們一開始進展緩慢，很難讓其他供應商加入。因此，在 2018 年底，我們有 2 到 3 家主要供應商加入。到目前為止，2019 年我們已經迎來了幾家新的供應商。因此，無論是 EMRP 定價計劃、MAP 定價計劃還是單方面定價計劃，不同的供應商都會根據其法務部門或法律顧問的建議採取不同的方法。我們在這方面取得了一些進展。我認為未來整個產業對線上銷售的管控將會更加嚴格。

Our next question comes from Bret Jordan with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的布雷特喬丹。

On pricing, I guess, as you get other brick-and-mortar shops, are you seeing any increased competition, I guess? Anybody rather than passing through some of the inflation holding it and trying to reduce pricing to get more commercial volume?

關於價格方面，我想，隨著其他實體店的出現，您是否感受到競爭加劇了？有沒有人願意承擔部分通貨膨脹的影響，然後試圖降低價格以獲得更大的商業銷售？

Well, I mean, that's ongoing. I mean, that's happened forever. I mean, there's always been suppliers out there when times get tough. They cut the prices a little off or rebate to try to buy the business. That's normally a short-term strategy. I mean, it's really -- as long as I've been in the business, it's been a service and relationship business. And you really build the business and keep the business through solid service, availability and then solid relationships, partnering with that shop to help them grow their business. But pricing comes and goes depending on how tough business is.

嗯，我的意思是，這件事還在進行中。我的意思是，這種情況一直都存在。我的意思是，困難時期總會有供應商。他們透過降價或折扣來試圖收購這家企業。這通常是一種短期策略。我的意思是，就我入行以來，這始終是一個服務和人際關係產業。而真正建立和維繫業務，靠的是可靠的服務、充足的貨源以及穩固的合作關係，與商家建立夥伴關係，幫助他們發展業務。但價格會隨著商業環境的艱難程度而波動。

Okay. And then, I guess, within your omnichannel initiatives, do you have any sort of data as far as maybe increase of buy online, pick up in store? Or where the trajectory is there? I mean, obviously, you've ramped it up?

好的。那麼，我想，在你們的全通路計畫中，你們是否有任何數據，例如線上購買、門市自提的增加情況？或者說，軌跡在哪裡？我的意思是，很明顯，你們已經加強了力度？

Sure. Overall, it has increased significantly. I'll tell you that from a breakout standpoint, ship to home; buy online, pickup in store; it fluctuates slightly, Bret. But we're staying right around that 2/3 of our online sales or pickup in store, which is where we want. We want to end up that customer inside our store, where we can make sure that we provide the highest level of service and make sure they have everything they need to complete the job.

當然。整體而言，成長顯著。從突破的角度來看，送貨上門；網上購買，店內取貨；情況略有波動，布雷特。但我們線上銷售或店內取貨的比例仍然保持在三分之二左右，這正是我們想要達到的水平。我們希望最終能讓顧客走進我們的店裡，在那裡我們可以確保提供最高水準的服務，並確保他們擁有完成工作所需的一切。

We have our next question from Mike Lasser with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥克·拉塞爾。

So as we think about modeling the course of your guidance of 3% to 5%, it sounds like the start of the year has been good, in part, because of inflation progressively over the course of the year. The inflation compares are going to get more difficult and you're going to no longer likely see the benefit of some of the tariff-related price increases. And you probably have less visibility into the second half of the year. So as we model the year, should we take a more cautious view on the second half of the year? And along those lines, what happens if a 20 -- how will our models be affected if the 25% tariff goes through?

因此，當我們考慮如何模擬您提出的 3% 到 5% 的指導目標時，聽起來今年的開局不錯，部分原因是通貨膨脹在一年中逐步上升。通貨膨脹比較將變得越來越困難，而且您可能不再能享受一些與關稅相關的價格上漲的好處。而且你可能對下半年的情況不太清楚。因此，在對全年進行預測時，我們是否應該對下半年採取更謹慎的態度？那麼，如果25%的關稅真的實施，我們的模型會受到怎樣的影響呢？

Okay. Michael, this is Tom. What we would tell you is that our comps will be relatively consistent on a quarter-by-quarter basis. On a year-over-year basis, as you pointed out, the first quarter will have the most inflationary benefit. We also have an extra Sunday here in the first quarter, which is a 50 bp headwind. When we look at the rest of the year, it should be relatively consistent. We pick up a Sunday in the third quarter. And the fourth quarter the ease going from a weekend to a Monday really were a big headwind for our business. And that, from a calendar standpoint, will help the fourth quarter. So we're looking at pretty consistent comps throughout the quarter.

好的。邁克爾，這是湯姆。我們可以告訴您的是，我們的業績比較數據將按季度保持相對穩定。正如你所指出的，從年比來看，第一季將帶來最大的通膨利好。第一季我們還多了一個週日，相當於50個基點的逆風。展望今年剩餘時間，情況應該會相對穩定。我們在第三堂課接一個星期天。第四季度，從週末到週一的過渡期對我們的業務來說確實是一個巨大的不利因素。從日程安排的角度來看，這將有助於第四季度。因此，我們看到整個季度的同店銷售額都相當穩定。

On the 25% tariffs?

關於25%的關稅？

And your second question was -- I'm sorry. And your second question Michael, was...

你的第二個問題是──我很抱歉。邁克爾，你的第二個問題是…

On the 25% tariffs.

關於25%的關稅。

On the 25% tariffs. Yes. As Greg pointed out, our expectations are, we're going to be in the same state we are now for the year. And obviously, things have changed a lot. To the extent that we saw those additional tariffs go in, in March, we'll have to see how the market reacts. But our expectation is that we'll see a larger increase in average ticket driven by those cost increases and then offsetting pressure because of those rising prices on ticket count.

關於25%的關稅。是的。正如格雷格指出的那樣，我們預計今年我們將保持目前的狀況。顯然，情況已經發生了很大變化。如果這些額外的關稅在3月生效，我們將不得不觀察市場的反應。但我們預計，由於成本上漲，平均票價將出現更大幅度的成長，而票價上漲又會對票數造成抵銷壓力。

And if I could ask a follow-up on the SG&A and investment side. This will be the second year -- another year where SG&A per-store growth is above what it's been historically. Is this a function of maybe the cost of doing business within the auto part retail sector becoming more expensive for whatever reason, more competition becoming more complicated? Or is this just a catch-up from maybe some different investment philosophies in the past?

另外，能否請您就銷售、管理及行政費用及投資方面再補充一些資訊？這將是連續第二年——又一個門市銷售、管理及行政費用成長率高於歷史平均的年份。這是否是由於汽車零件零售業的經營成本因某種原因變得更高，競爭加劇導致經營環境更加複雜？或者這只是對過去一些不同投資理念的一種追趕？

Well, I would point you back to our call this year -- or last year this time. And we talked about a rising SG&A cost as people reinvested part of their savings from the new tax laws. And that we would see those costs go up, but we wouldn't see a proportional increase in average ticket from inflation on the top line. And at that time, we said when we look at next year, if we continue to see cost inflation in the expenses to run the business, we'd expect to feel that tailwind in our top line same SKU inflation. And that's what we're seeing this year. Given that unemployment is very low, wages are going up very quickly, costs are going up, interest rates are going up, we're seeing that inflation run through all of our expenses and getting the top line tailwinds. So we don't think the business itself is changed. We think that we're just more in an inflationary environment than we've seen in the last 5 to 8 years.

我建議您回顧我們今年——或者去年這個時候——的通話。我們也討論了銷售、管理及行政費用不斷上漲的問題，因為人們將新稅法帶來的部分儲蓄重新投入其他投資。我們會看到這些成本上升，但不會看到平均票價因通貨膨脹而按比例上漲。當時我們表示，展望明年，如果繼續看到業務營運成本上漲，我們預計同店銷售額將出現上漲，這將對我們的營收成長起到推動作用。這就是我們今年所看到的。鑑於失業率非常低，薪資上漲速度非常快，成本上漲，利率上漲，我們看到通貨膨脹正在影響我們所有的支出，並為收入帶來順風。所以我們認為業務本身並沒有改變。我們認為，我們目前所處的通膨環境比過去 5 到 8 年都要嚴重。

We have our next question from Chris Bottiglieri with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Bottiglieri。

One quick follow-up and then I got one bigger picture question. So is there a way to walk us on the 10 point tariff to a 2 point price increase? What percentage of SKUs were impacted? Product cost percent as percentage of COGS? Or where the opposites are? I mean, just the amount of bridge there.

我先問了一個簡短的後續問題，然後又問了一個更宏觀的問題。那麼，有沒有辦法向我們解釋一下從 10 個點的關稅到 2 個點的價格上漲的過程呢？受影響的 SKU 佔比是多少？產品成本佔銷售總成本的百分比是多少？或者說，反義詞在哪裡？我的意思是，光是那座橋的長度就夠讓人頭痛的了。

Yes. So all of our products are produced overseas. It's a portion of them. And even for some lines, some are here in the States and some are not. We're not going to get into breaking down the individual numbers. We push back on all the price increases we get, whether they're tariff-related, interest rate-related, health care-related, raw commodity-related, but that ends up being the blended number. And we didn't take full 10% increases on most of our products.

是的。所以我們所有的產品都是在海外生產的。這是其中的一部分。甚至有些線路，有些在美國境內，有些則不在美國境內。我們就不深入分析具體數字了。我們會抵制所有價格上漲，無論是關稅相關的、利率相關的、醫療保健相關的還是原材料相關的，但最終的價格就是綜合起來的那個數字。而且我們大多數產品的價格並沒有上漲10%。

Got you. Okay. And then a bigger picture question was just from your distribution strategy. You talked about the super hub that you referenced after you consolidated the TDCs. The nomenclature though of our super hub, I think, is different not to be confused with what your peers are doing to replace DCs with larger hub stores. So is this like more equivalent to your master DCs? Or maybe you can just walk us through kind of what you're doing there would be helpful.

抓到你了。好的。然後，還有一個更宏觀的問題，是關於你們的分銷策略。你提到了你在整合 TDC 之後提到的超級樞紐。不過，我認為我們超級樞紐的命名方式有所不同，不要與你們同行用更大的樞紐商店取代配送中心的做法混淆。所以這和你的主控端更接近嗎？或者，您能不能給我們詳細介紹一下您在那邊具體做了些什麼，那就太好了。

We basically have our Spoke store and then we have a hub store that would be in the 45,000 SKU range. And then we have super hubs, where we don't have DCs in a large metro market. That would be in that 80,000, 90,000 SKU range and then our DCs would, obviously, have in that 160,000, 170,000 SKU range.

我們基本上有一個輻射型門市，還有一個中心型門市，其 SKU 數量約為 45,000 個。然後我們還有一些超級樞紐，在這些大型都會市場中，我們沒有資料中心。那大概會有 8 萬到 9 萬個 SKU，而我們的配送中心顯然會有 16 萬到 17 萬個 SKU。

Chris, if I could add to that a little bit about why we're making that change. We're facing some pretty significant capacity issues in both Middle Tennessee where Nashville's DC is located and our East Tennessee market in Knoxville. And we had to make a move. And we decided to consolidate those 2 facilities into a much larger facility that allow DC to have a larger breadth of SKUs for the sum of that customer base. But because that market in Knoxville is a market that's had a DC inventory presence for a number of years now, we wanted to supplement that markets for same-day service by converting that DC into a super hub and making sure that we maintain that same-day parts availability in the Knoxville market.

克里斯，如果我可以補充一點關於我們為什麼要做出這個改變的話。我們在田納西州中部（納許維爾的配送中心所在地）和田納西州東部（諾克斯維爾）市場都面臨相當嚴重的產能問題。我們必須採取行動。於是我們決定將這兩個設施合併成一個更大的設施，以便 DC 能夠為所有客戶擁有更廣泛的 SKU。但由於諾克斯維爾市場多年來一直擁有配送中心庫存，我們希望透過將該配送中心改造成超級樞紐來補充該市場的當日服務，並確保我們在諾克斯維爾市場保持當日零件供應。

Got you. Lastly, is this a one-off just specific to that market? Or do you foresee or envision creating more of these super hubs throughout the country?

抓到你了。最後，這種情況是否僅限於該市場？或者您預見或設想在全國各地創造更多這樣的超級中心？

We've always used a super hub strategy, but in the case of Knoxville, I mean, Knoxville was just a -- it was an old mid-stage DC. And it just didn't -- it wasn't big enough to have the capacity that we needed to truly service that market.

我們一直採用超級樞紐策略，但就諾克斯維爾而言，我的意思是，諾克斯維爾只是一個——它是一個老舊的中期配送中心。但事實並非如此——它的規模不夠大，無法提供我們真正服務該市場所需的容量。

Jeff, we got 340-ish hub stores and how many super hubs -- of those are super hubs?

Jeff，我們有大約 340 個中心門市，其中有多少個超級中心門市？

40. 40, give or take.

40.40歲左右。

We've got several...

我們有好幾個…

Our next question is from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

My question is around the gap between DIY and Pro comps. Could you provide some color as to how that trended for each quarter through 2018? And how you're looking at that through 2019?

我的問題是關於DIY比賽和專業比賽之間的差距。能否詳細介紹一下2018年每季的趨勢？那麼，您如何看待2019年的發展前景呢？

We've spoken to it on each quarter and you can find that information in our Q. We don't give the actual number. What we would tell you is that when we look at 2018, we've been pressured on the DIY customer count. Pro has grown each year -- or each quarter. Average ticket is up on both and we would expect that trend to continue in 2019.

我們每季都討論過這個問題，您可以在我們的季度報告中找到相關資訊。我們不提供具體數字。我們想告訴大家的是，回顧 2018 年，我們在 DIY 客戶數量方面面臨壓力。Pro 每年或每季都在成長。兩方面的平均票價均有所上漲，我們預計這一趨勢將在 2019 年持續。

But you wouldn't expect the sales gap to widen between DIY and commercial in 2019?

但你不會想到2019年DIY和商業銷售之間的差距會擴大吧？

We're anticipating a relatively similar difference with professional business continuing to grow faster based on our ability to consolidate the market, based on that consumer being less impacted by general rising prices and based on other macro factors to our business, slightly aging population and more expensive repairs that are more technical in nature and late-model vehicles being expensive.

我們預計專業業務的成長速度將繼續加快，這與市場整合能力、消費者受物價普遍上漲的影響較小以及其他影響我們業務的宏觀因素（例如人口老齡化加劇、技術性更強的維修費用更高以及新款車輛價格昂貴）之間的差異大致相同。

Got it. Perfect. That's helpful. And then secondly, looking at your CapEx budget for 2019, you provided some color on some of the things that are driving the increase. Could you give a little bit more granularity, which of the factors, DCs, new stores IT projects, maintenance, are changing the most from 2018 to 2019?

知道了。完美的。那很有幫助。其次，關於您 2019 年的資本支出預算，您也對導致預算成長的一些因素做了詳細說明。能否更具體地說明一下，從 2018 年到 2019 年，哪些因素（例如資料中心、新門市 IT 專案、維護等）變化最大？

Biggest change is our -- number one is DCs, DC projects. Number two is in-the-store technology.

最大的變化是我們的－第一是資料中心，資料中心專案。第二點是店內技術。

Our next question is from Matt McClintock with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬特·麥克林托克。

I'd like to follow up on Michael's question a little bit, maybe parse it out in a different way. Just the in-store and omnichannel investments in 2018 that you're continuing to do in 2019. I know you invest for long-term sustainable growth, but can you give us some sense of when the payback is on those investments or when we should expect the payback on those investments, whether that be through increased sales, accelerating sales or margin or whatever the payback is?

我想稍微補充一下麥可的問題，或許可以從另一個角度來闡述。只是在 2018 年進行的店內和全通路投資，在 2019 年繼續進行。我知道你們的投資是為了實現長期可持續成長，但是你們能否告訴我們這些投資何時能夠收回成本，或者我們應該何時能夠預期這些投資能夠收回成本，無論是透過增加銷售額、加速銷售或提高利潤率，還是其他任何方式？

What we would tell you is that most of these changes are just consumer expectations. Consumers shop outside of auto parts at many retailers and their expectation of what great service is changes over time. And our job is to continue to make sure that our customer service levels are up there to maintain our business. It's hard to parse out what that is from a sustaining standpoint versus additional business. It's part of the factors that go into customer service that drive our comps to be higher than the industry growth rates.

我們想告訴大家的是，這些變化大多只是消費者的預期。消費者除了購買汽車配件外，還會光顧許多其他零售商，他們對優質服務的期望也會隨著時間而改變。我們的工作就是繼續確保客戶服務水平保持在高水平，以維持我們的業務。很難從維持業務的角度來區分這究竟是維持營運還是拓展業務。這是影響顧客服務的許多因素之一，也是我們同店銷售額高於產業平均成長率的原因。

Matt, just to add on to that, I'm not going to go into any details about what the initiatives are for competitive reasons. But from an omnichannel perspective, we're primarily focused on improving content, improving online search, improving -- customers buying decisions, whether they buy online, ship to home, buy online, pickup in store or research online, buy in store, a lot of those transactions and buying decisions are made based on research online. So we're just focused on making sure that we are providing the highest level of searchability, so to speak, for our products, for our customers. And we think that's going to pay dividends long term from a sales perspective. How we quantify that? It's very difficult to do.

馬特，我還要補充一點，出於競爭原因，我不會透露這些措施的具體細節。但從全通路的角度來看，我們主要專注於改善內容、改善線上搜尋、改善客戶的購買決策，無論他們是在線上購買、送貨上門、線上購買、店內取貨還是線上研究、店內購買，許多交易和購買決策都是基於線上研究做出的。因此，我們專注於確保我們的產品，也就是我們的客戶，能夠獲得最高水準的搜尋便利性。我們認為從銷售角度來看，這將在長期內帶來回報。我們如何量化這一點？這很難做到。

I understand that. And just on my follow-up. Just the seasonal pull forward in November, were there any margin implications for the quarter from that?

我明白了。就我後續的詢問而言。僅11月份的季節性因素提前影響了季度利潤率，這會對本季利潤率產生什麼影響嗎？

No. There wouldn't be.

不。不會有。

We have our next question from Scot Ciccarelli with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的史考特·西卡雷利。

So I'm curious, in your business plan for 2019, are you expecting any industry trend change based on the Car Parc? And kind of how are you thinking about the Car Parc? It's obviously an investor topic but as a company operating in that industry, I'm curious, how you guys are thinking about it.

所以我很好奇，在您的 2019 年商業計劃中，您是否根據 Car Parc 預期任何行業趨勢變化？那麼，您對停車場有什麼想法呢？這顯然是一個投資者應該關注的話題，但作為一家在該行業運營的公司，我很好奇你們對此有何看法。

As the bubble years go through from the Great Recession, that's part of the reason that 2 years ago was kind of the biggest headwind for those year vehicles entering our sweet spot and hit the professional business more in 2018 as part of the reason that there was a more of a gap between the DIY and professional. We'd expect that, that will continue to -- as that moves through to the older vehicle years that are much higher DIY to continue to: one, be a positive on the professional side because there's not the headwind and it'll start to be more of a headwind on the DIY side.

隨著經濟大衰退帶來的泡沫經濟時期過去，兩年前是那些進入我們最佳銷售階段的車型遭遇的最大阻力之一，而2018年專業市場受到的衝擊更大，部分原因是DIY和專業市場之間的差距更大。我們預計這種情況會繼續下去——隨著車輛老化，DIY 的比例越來越高，這種情況會繼續下去：一方面，這對專業人士來說是件好事，因為沒有阻力；另一方面，DIY 方面會開始面臨更大的阻力。

And so are you expecting those trends to become exaggerated in 2019? In other words, aren't there just more vehicles, kind of, coming into that repair stage? And have you factored that into your expectations for 3% to 5% comp guide?

那你認為這些趨勢在2019年會加劇嗎？換句話說，越來越多的車輛都進入了維修階段？你是否已將這一點納入你對 3% 至 5% 薪酬預期目標的考慮之中？

We wouldn't expect it to accelerate because it pressures the DIY side of the business. That's also the side of the business that's growing from a longer tail of vehicles and vehicles staying on the road longer. Those 10-, 12-, 14-, 15-year vehicles are primarily DIY side business, and that's helping offset the pressure from those bubble years.

我們預計這種情況不會加速，因為它會給DIY業務帶來壓力。隨著車輛保有量增加和車輛行駛里程延長，這部分業務也在成長。這些車齡 10 年、12 年、14 年、15 年的車輛主要屬於 DIY 副業，這有助於抵消泡沫時期帶來的壓力。

Our next question is from Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的丹尼爾·伊姆布羅。

On the gross margin guidance, you guys mentioned, as far as cadence, the expansion to be front-half weighted. And I think you identified freight pressures as a potential headwind to gross margins. Can you talk about when you really saw freight pressure step up in 2018? And is there anything different about those cost pressures that would inhibit you from passing them through in the form of price like you would any other form of inflation?

關於毛利率指引，你們提到，就擴張節奏而言，擴張將以上半年為重點。我認為您已經指出貨運壓力可能會對毛利率構成不利影響。能談談2018年貨運壓力真正加大是什麼時候嗎？那麼，這些成本壓力有什麼不同之處，以至於你會像對待其他形式的通貨膨脹一樣，阻止你將它們以價格的形式轉嫁出去呢？

Well, it seems like we've been on the 3-year run for freight cost has continued to go up. And that's a population of jobs that there's a very, very tight market. And that tight market is driving increases. When we look at our distribution cost, obviously, we deliver nightly at all the stores so there's quite a bit of pressure there. And we build that into our cost, but we've got to be market competitive. So to the extent that we're a higher distribution-intensive company that's more exposed to this, we're going to have a little more pressure that we're not able to pass on.

看來我們已經經歷了三年的貨運成本持續上漲的局面了。而且，這類工作的市場競爭非常非常激烈。而這種供過於求的市場狀況正在推動價格上漲。當我們查看配送成本時，很明顯，我們每晚都要向所有門市送貨，所以這方面壓力很大。我們已將這些成本計入成本，但我們必須保持市場競爭力。因此，由於我們是一家分銷密集度較高的公司，更容易受到這種影響，我們將面臨更大的壓力，而這種壓力我們無法轉嫁出去。

Got it. And then, just within that expectation, are you expecting a similar price increase that we saw in 2018 and 2019?

知道了。那麼，在這種預期範圍內，您是否預期會出現與 2018 年和 2019 年類似的漲價？

2018 was pretty high for freight. The incremental year-over-year increase is less, but the number is still a higher rate than we experienced in 2018.

2018 年的貨運價格相當高。雖然年增幅有所減少，但這一數字仍然高於 2018 年的增幅。

Got it. That's helpful. And then for my follow-up, when I think about December, you guys mentioned a few negative impacts, the holiday calendar shifts, weather, a tougher compare. Can you maybe quantify some of those headwinds as we think about the deceleration from November to December?

知道了。那很有幫助。然後，我的後續問題是，當我想到 12 月時，你們提到了一些負面影響，例如假期安排的變化、天氣等等，這使得比較變得更加困難。能否量化一下我們在考慮11月到12月成長放緩時遇到的一些不利因素？

We can't -- we're not going to quantify them but in that order of magnitude, number one item in December, it's very weather-driven. People fix their vehicles if they have to, otherwise they're going to do holiday shopping so that's number one. And then, number two would be the calendar shifts of the Eves.

我們無法——我們不會量化它們，但就數量級而言，12 月排名第一的項目很大程度上受天氣影響。人們只有在迫不得已的情況下才會修理車輛，否則就會去進行節日購物，所以這是首要考慮因素。其次，第二點是夏娃的曆法變化。

We have reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Johnson for closing remarks.

我們的提問時間已到。現在我將把電話交給格雷格·約翰遜先生，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, Vanessa. We'd like to conclude our call today by thanking the entire O'Reilly team for our solid fourth quarter and full year 2018 results. We look forward to a strong year in 2019. I would like to thank everyone for joining our call today. And we look forward to reporting our 2019 first quarter results in April. Thank you.

謝謝你，Vanessa。在今天的電話會議結束之際，我們要感謝 O'Reilly 團隊全體成員，感謝他們為我們 2018 年第四季和全年的穩健業績。我們期待2019年能有佳績。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。我們期待在四月公佈2019年第一季業績。謝謝。

And thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our conference. We thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。