O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Senarra, and I'll be the operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎來到 O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.2018年第三季財報電話會議。我叫塞納拉，我將擔任今天電話會議的接線生。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Tom McFall. Mr. McFall, you may begin.

現在我將把電話交給湯姆·麥克福爾先生。麥克福爾先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Senarra. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. During today's conference call, we'll discuss our third quarter 2018 results and our outlook for the fourth quarter and full year of 2018. After our prepared comments, we'll host a question-and-answer period.

謝謝你，塞納拉。各位早安，感謝各位的參與。在今天的電話會議上，我們將討論我們 2018 年第三季的業績以及我們對 2018 年第四季和全年的展望。在我們發表完準備好的評論後，我們將進行問答環節。

Before we begin this morning, I'd like to remind everyone that our comments today contain forward-looking statements and we intend to be covered by, and we claim the protection under, the Safe Harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as estimate, may, could, will, believe, expect, would, consider, should, anticipate, project, plan, intend or similar words. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors described in the company's latest annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017, and other recent SEC filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call.

在今天早上開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述，我們打算遵守 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中關於前瞻性陳述的「安全港」條款，並主張受到該條款的保護。你可以透過諸如估計、可能、可以、將、相信、預期、會、考慮、應該、預計、預測、計劃、打算或類似詞語等前瞻性詞語來識別這些陳述。由於本公司截至 2017 年 12 月 31 日止年度的最新 10-K 表格年度報告以及其他近期提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的幾個重要因素，本公司的實際業績可能與任何前瞻性聲明有重大差異。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

At this time, I'd like to introduce Greg Johnson.

在此，我謹向大家介紹格雷格·約翰遜。

Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the O'Reilly Auto Parts Third Quarter Conference Call. Participating on the call with me this morning are Jeff Shaw, our Chief Operating Officer and Co-President; and Tom McFall, our Chief Financial Officer. David O'Reilly, our Executive Chairman; and Greg Henslee, our Executive Vice Chairman, are also present.

謝謝你，湯姆。各位早安，歡迎參加歐萊利汽車配件公司第三季電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的有我們的營運長兼聯席總裁傑夫·肖，以及我們的財務長湯姆·麥克福爾。我們的執行主席大衛·奧萊利和執行副主席格雷格·亨斯利也出席了會議。

It's my pleasure to begin our call today by congratulating Team O'Reilly on a strong third quarter and a solid first 9 months of 2018. The sales momentum we experienced in the first half of 2018 continued through the third quarter and drove our comparable store sales increase of 3.9%, which was at the top end of our guidance range. As a reminder, we faced a headwind in the third quarter from an additional Sunday as compared to 2017, which had a negative impact of approximately 50 basis points since Sunday is our lowest-volume day of the week.

今天，我很高興首先祝賀奧萊利團隊在第三季度取得了強勁的業績，並在 2018 年前 9 個月也取得了穩健的成績。我們在 2018 年上半年取得的銷售動能延續到了第三季度，推動同店銷售額成長了 3.9%，達到了我們預期範圍的上限。提醒一下，由於 2017 年第三季多了一個星期日，我們面臨不利因素，這造成了大約 50 個基點的負面影響，因為星期日是我們一周中交易量最低的一天。

We are also pleased with our team's ability to generate year-to-date comparable store sales growth of 4% through their unwavering commitment to providing excellent customer service. Our sales growth, combined with our team's relentless focus on profitable sales and expense management, generated a 5% increase in operating profit dollars as compared to the third quarter of 2017 at an operating margin of 19.5%.

我們也對團隊能夠實現今年迄今同店銷售額成長 4% 感到滿意，這得益於他們始終如一地致力於提供卓越的客戶服務。我們的銷售成長，加上團隊對獲利銷售和費用管理的持續關注，使得營業利潤比 2017 年第三季成長了 5%，營業利潤率為 19.5%。

In addition to our solid growth in sales and operating profit, we also -- we were also the beneficiaries of a substantially lower tax rate than expected, which Tom will cover in his prepared comments. This combination of operating performance, along with our ongoing share buyback program, drove an increase in the third quarter earnings per share of 40% to $4.50 per share, which exceeded the top end of our guidance range of $4.30 and is a testament to our team's efforts to provide unsurpassed customer service.

除了銷售額和營業利潤的穩健成長外，我們還受益於遠低於預期的稅率，湯姆將在他準備好的評論中對此進行介紹。良好的營運業績，加上我們持續進行的股票回購計劃，推動第三季每股收益成長 40% 至 4.50 美元，超過了我們此前 4.30 美元的預期上限，這證明了我們團隊致力於提供卓越的客戶服務。

Now I would like to provide some additional color on our third quarter comparable store sales results. The composition of sales in the third quarter was very similar to the second quarter, and really, the full year of 2018, as we have seen a very consistent and stable trend throughout the year. Both our professional and DIY sides of the business were positive contributors to our comparable store sales growth, with professional performing at a stronger level as we saw strong ticket count growth on that side of the business again in the third quarter, with the only sequential difference versus the second quarter resulting from the headwind of the additional Sunday.

現在我想就我們第三季的同店銷售業績再補充一些資訊。第三季的銷售組成與第二季非常相似，實際上與 2018 年全年也非常相似，因為我們看到全年都呈現出非常一致和穩定的趨勢。我們專業的業務和 DIY 業務都對同店銷售成長做出了積極貢獻，其中專業業務表現更為強勁，第三季度該業務的客單價再次大幅增長，與第二季度相比唯一的環比差異是由於多了一個星期日帶來的不利影響。

DIY ticket counts continued to see pressure as customers on that side of the business are more sensitive to increased gas prices and inflation and are more likely to defer maintenance or repairs in the short term, particularly for lower-income DIY-ers. Average ticket continues to be a strong contributor to our comparable store sales increase on both sides of our business, driven by the increasing complexity of vehicle repairs, a favorable overall business mix and continued effective pricing management.

DIY 服務訂單數量持續承壓，因為該業務領域的客戶對汽油價格上漲和通貨膨脹更為敏感，並且更有可能在短期內推遲維護或維修，尤其是對於低收入的 DIY 用戶而言。平均客單價持續成為我們同店銷售成長的重要推動因素，這主要得益於車輛維修的日益複雜化、有利的整體業務組合以及持續有效的定價管理。

Similar to the past 2 quarters, we benefited from some modest commodity-driven inflation on same-SKU pricing in the quarter. We'll begin to see same-SKU inflation accelerate as our industry passes through cost increases for the parts subject to the latest tariff, which went into effect on September 24, although we are working with our suppliers to minimize and delay this impact.

與過去兩季類似，本季我們受惠於大宗商品價格的溫和上漲，同 SKU 價格也隨之上漲。隨著行業內零件成本因最新關稅（於 9 月 24 日生效）而上漲，我們將開始看到同 SKU 價格上漲加速，儘管我們正在與供應商合作，以盡量減少和延緩這種影響。

Moving on to the cadence of our comparable store sales growth in the quarter. Our monthly results, after adjusting for the impact of the extra Sunday in September, were consistently solid throughout the quarter as we began the quarter with continued steady demand in our typical summer selling season and saw the rest of the quarter play out within our expectations.

接下來，我們來看看本季同店銷售額成長的節奏。考慮到九月份多出的那個星期日的影響，我們的月度業績在整個季度都保持穩健，因為我們在典型的夏季銷售旺季開始時需求持續穩定，並且本季度的其餘部分也符合我們的預期。

On a category basis, we saw strong performance throughout the quarter on weather-related categories, such as batteries and air conditioning, as a result of the hot summer weather. We also continued to see solid performance in key hard parts categories, such as brakes and ride control, in line with our expectations of typical maintenance and failure-related demand following a normal winter.

從類別來看，由於夏季炎熱，與天氣相關的類別（如電池和空調）在本季表現強勁。我們也繼續看到關鍵硬部件類別（如煞車和行車控制）表現穩健，這與我們對正常冬季過後典型維護和故障相關需求的預期相符。

As you can tell from my comments thus far, our sales trends have been very steady in the year, including a solid trend thus far in October, which is consistent with what we would expect from a normal weather cycle for our business and also reflects the core underlying strength of the automotive aftermarket. From a macroeconomic perspective, if we continue to have a favorable outlook -- I'm sorry, from a macroeconomic perspective, we continue to have a favorable outlook for the long-term demand drivers of our business as employment remains stable and average vehicle age continues to increase.

從我目前的評論中可以看出，我們今年的銷售趨勢非常穩定，包括10月份至今的強勁趨勢，這與我們對正常天氣週期業務的預期一致，也反映了汽車售後市場的核心實力。從宏觀經濟角度來看，如果我們繼續保持樂觀的前景——抱歉，從宏觀經濟角度來看，隨著就業維持穩定和車輛平均車齡持續成長，我們對業務的長期需求驅動因素仍然保持樂觀的前景。

However, as we look to finish out 2018, we remain cautious on the short-term impact to miles driven from pressure consumers as they -- pressure to consumers as they respond to higher gas prices and economic uncertainty from rising prices and the impacts of tariffs, which could lead to incremental pressure to ticket counts from the short-term deferral by lower-income DIY customers.

然而，展望 2018 年的尾聲，我們仍然對短期內行駛里程受到的壓力保持謹慎，因為消費者會因汽油價格上漲和經濟不確定性以及關稅的影響而做出反應，這可能會導致低收入 DIY 客戶短期內推遲支付，從而對罰單數量造成進一步的壓力。

Our business can also be more variable in the fourth quarter, based on the holiday season and weather volatility, and we face difficult comparisons at the end of our quarter as the last 2 Decembers have benefited from favorable winter weather. As a result of these factors, we are maintaining our fourth quarter guidance at 2% to 4%.

由於假期和天氣變化的影響，我們的業務在第四季度可能會更加不穩定，而且由於過去兩個 12 月都受益於有利的冬季天氣，我們在季度末面臨著艱難的比較。鑑於以上因素，我們維持第四季2%至4%的成長預期。

While we do benefit from 1 fewer Sunday in the fourth quarter of 2018 versus 2017, the impact is offset by the timing of both Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve holidays, which fall on Mondays instead of Sundays this year, which will result in a lower professional sales volume as many shops run limited hours on those holidays versus a typical Monday. Based on our year-to-date results and fourth quarter guidance, we are raising the lower end of our full year comparable store sales guidance from a range of 2% to 4% to a range of 3% to 4%.

雖然 2018 年第四季比 2017 年少了一個星期日，這確實對我們有利，但由於今年的平安夜和新年除夕假期都在星期一而不是星期日，因此抵消了這一影響，因為許多商店在這些假期會縮短營業時間，而星期一的營業時間則與平常相比，這將導致專業銷售額下降。根據我們今年迄今的業績和第四季的預期，我們將全年同店銷售額預期下限從 2% 至 4% 上調至 3% 至 4%。

For the quarter, our gross margin of 53% was a 42 basis point improvement over the third quarter of 2017 margin, at the top end of our guidance expectations, built into our full year gross margin guidance. After seasonal mix pressures in the second quarter, mix was more favorable to our gross margin in the third quarter and we benefited from a lower LIFO impact, which Tom will discuss in more detail. We continue to work with our suppliers to make incremental improvements in acquisition cost, but are also seeing modest inflation driven by commodity increases.

本季度，我們的毛利率為 53%，比 2017 年第三季的毛利率提高了 42 個基點，達到了我們全年毛利率預期上限。在經歷了第二季季節性產品組合壓力之後，第三季的產品組合對我們的毛利率更加有利，並且我們受益於後進先出法 (LIFO) 影響的降低，湯姆將對此進行更詳細的討論。我們繼續與供應商合作，逐步降低採購成本，但同時也看到大宗商品價格上漲導致的輕微通膨。

However, we were pleased to see continued rational pricing within our industry to pass along those increases. We're beginning to see the early stages regarding the impact of tariffs, but expect to react to those cost increases in the same manner as any other source of inflation and remain confident in our industry's ability to pass through inflationary price increases. We are leaving our full year gross margin guidance unchanged at 52.5% to 53%, but based on our third quarter results, we no longer expect to come in at the bottom half of that range. We also continue to expect our full year operating profit for 2018 to be within our previously guided range of 18.5% to 19% of sales.

然而，我們很高興看到業內繼續保持合理的定價策略，並將這些上漲轉嫁給消費者。我們開始看到關稅影響的早期階段，但預計我們將以應對其他任何通貨膨脹來源的方式應對這些成本上漲，並對我們行業將通貨膨脹價格上漲轉嫁出去的能力充滿信心。我們維持全年毛利率預期不變，仍為 52.5% 至 53%，但根據我們第三季的業績，我們不再預期最終毛利率會處於該區間的下半部分。我們也繼續預期 2018 年全年營業利潤將達到銷售額的 18.5% 至 19%，與我們先前預期的範圍一致。

For earnings per share, we're establishing our fourth quarter guidance at $3.60 to $3.70, which at the midpoint, would represent a 4% increase over EPS of $3.52 in the fourth quarter of last year, which included a $0.62 benefit related to adjusting our deferred tax liabilities in conjunction with the tax law change. Excluding that benefit, our guidance midpoint would represent a 26% increase in the fourth quarter EPS. We're also updating our full year EPS guidance to $15.95 to $16.05, reflecting our third quarter performance and the shares we have purchased through the call today. I would remind everyone that our full year guidance includes the impact of shares repurchased through this call, but does not include any additional share repurchases.

對於每股收益，我們設定第四季度預期為 3.60 美元至 3.70 美元，其中數值將比去年第四季的每股收益 3.52 美元增長 4%，其中包括因稅法變更而調整遞延所得稅負債帶來的 0.62 美元收益。不計入該項收益，我們預期中位數將代表第四季每股收益成長 26%。我們同時將全年每股收益預期更新為 15.95 美元至 16.05 美元，以反映我們第三季的業績以及我們今天透過電話會議購買的股票。我想提醒大家，我們全年的業績指引包含了透過本次電話會議回購的股票的影響，但不包括任何額外的股票回購。

Before I turn the call over to Jeff, I would like to again thank our team of over 80,000 dedicated Team Members for their solid performance thus far in 2018, and I'm confident our team will finish up the year strong. We remain very confident in the long-term drivers for demand in our industry, and we believe we are all very well positioned to capitalize on the demand by consistently providing industry-leading customer service to our customers every day.

在將電話交給傑夫之前，我想再次感謝我們超過 80,000 名敬業的團隊成員在 2018 年迄今為止的出色表現，我相信我們的團隊將以強勁的勢頭結束這一年。我們對產業長期需求的驅動因素仍然充滿信心，我們相信，透過每天持續為客戶提供業界領先的客戶服務，我們已經做好充分準備來把握這一需求。

I'll now turn the call over to Jeff Shaw. Jeff?

現在我將把電話交給傑夫·肖。傑夫？

Well, thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to add my congratulations to Team O'Reilly on a solid third quarter and thank our team for their continued commitment to providing top-notch customer service. As Greg previously discussed, our sales trends in 2018 have been solid and very consistent, which reflects the unrelenting focus on customer service demonstrated by our teams every day in each one of our markets.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。我謹向奧萊利團隊表示祝賀，感謝他們第三季的優異成績，並感謝我們的團隊一直致力於提供一流的客戶服務。正如 Greg 之前討論的那樣，我們在 2018 年的銷售趨勢一直很穩健，非常穩定，這反映了我們各個市場團隊每天對客戶服務的堅持不懈的關注。

I'd like to begin today by talking about some exciting distribution center expansion news. When you truly focus on what excellent service really means for our customers, it's impossible to underestimate the importance of parts availability. Our ability to provide top-notch customer service in our stores is dependent on the work our distribution center teams do to get those hard-to-find parts in our stores faster than our competitors.

今天我想先和大家聊聊一些令人振奮的配送中心擴建消息。當你真正專注於優質服務對客戶而言意味著什麼時，就不能低估零件供應的重要性。我們能否在門市提供一流的客戶服務，取決於我們的配送中心團隊能否比競爭對手更快地將那些難以找到的零件送到門市。

Our long-term investment in our robust regional DC network is a key competitive advantage for us, and we're pleased to announce 2 new DC projects which will further strengthen our industry-leading position. First, we're pleased to announce we've acquired property in Twinsburg, Ohio, where we have begun to build our 28th distribution center. Twinsburg is located in the greater Cleveland area in Northern Ohio, approximately halfway between Cleveland and Akron.

我們對強大的區域資料中心網路的長期投資是我們的關鍵競爭優勢，我們很高興地宣布兩個新的資料中心項目，這將進一步鞏固我們在業界領先的地位。首先，我們很高興地宣布，我們已在俄亥俄州特溫斯堡購買了房產，並已開始在那裡建造我們的第 28 個配送中心。Twinsburg位於俄亥俄州北部大克里夫蘭地區，大約在克里夫蘭和阿克倫之間。

As we've discussed often in the past, our greenfield expansion strategy has been to enter new markets contiguous to our existing footprint as we build toward a critical mass of stores to leverage a new DC in an expansion region. We followed that familiar game plan over the last several years as we've opened stores further east into Ohio, West Virginia and Western Pennsylvania, supported by our DCs in Indianapolis and Detroit.

正如我們過去經常討論的那樣，我們的綠地擴張策略是進入與我們現有業務範圍相鄰的新市場，同時逐步累積足夠的門市數量，以便在擴張區域利用新的配送中心。過去幾年，我們一直遵循著熟悉的策略，在俄亥俄州、西維吉尼亞州和賓州西部等地開設了更多門市，並由我們在印第安納波利斯和底特律的配送中心提供支援。

We have now reached the point where additional DC capacity is necessary to support continued store growth in this region of the country while also freeing up capacity in our existing distribution centers to allow us to take advantage of opportunities to backfill stores in existing markets.

現在，我們需要增加配送中心的產能，以支持該地區門市的持續成長，同時釋放現有配送中心的產能，以便我們能夠抓住機會，在現有市場填補門市空缺。

The Twinsburg DC is a ground-up facility we plan to open in the fourth quarter of 2019 with the capacity to service approximately 275 stores out of a projected 405,000 square feet. In addition to adding overall capacity, the placement of this DC allows us to further leverage this investment by providing multiple same-day service to the approximately 130 stores in the important Northern Ohio market.

Twinsburg DC 是一個從零開始建設的設施，我們計劃於 2019 年第四季度開業，預計佔地 405,000 平方英尺，可為約 275 家門市提供服務。除了增加整體產能外，該配送中心的設立還使我們能夠進一步利用這項投資，為俄亥俄州北部重要市場的約 130 家門市提供多條當日送達服務。

The second distribution project we're announcing today is our purchase of an existing facility in Lebanon, Tennessee, which is an eastern suburb of Nashville; and our plan to relocate our existing leased facility in Nashville and begin service out of this new DC in the first half of 2020. The new DC will be approximately 410,000 square feet and will have the capacity to service 300 stores. Nashville and its surrounding markets have been very strong growing markets for us. And the additional capacity in our new Nashville DC will allow us to take advantage of continued profitable growth in the region and accommodate a broader SKU capacity to provide even better breadth of hard-to-find parts to our store teams in this market.

我們今天宣布的第二個配送項目是收購位於田納西州黎巴嫩（納許維爾東郊）的現有設施；我們計劃將我們在納許維爾的現有租賃設施搬遷至此，並在 2020 年上半年開始從這個新的配送中心提供服務。新的配送中心面積約為 410,000 平方英尺，能夠為 300 家門市提供服務。納許維爾及其周邊市場一直是我們發展勢頭非常強勁的市場。我們在納許維爾新配送中心的額外產能將使我們能夠利用該地區持續的盈利增長，並容納更廣泛的 SKU 產能，從而為我們在該市場的門市團隊提供更廣泛、更難找到的零件。

Before I move on from our discussion of these upcoming DC projects, I just want to express the confidence I have in our distribution operations teams, who have proven time and again their effectiveness in planning, building and seamlessly opening new distribution centers, often successfully executing multiple DC projects at the same time. With the dedication and support of this team, we're confident these projects will roll out with the same degree of efficiency that our past projects have delivered.

在繼續討論這些即將啟動的配送中心專案之前，我只想表達我對我們配送營運團隊的信心，他們一次又一次地證明了他們在規劃、建造和無縫開設新配送中心方面的有效性，並且經常成功地同時執行多個配送中心專案。憑藉這支團隊的奉獻精神和支持，我們有信心這些專案能夠像我們以往的專案一樣有效率地推進。

Now I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing our SG&A results for the quarter. SG&A as a percent of sales was 33.5%, deleverage of 62 basis points from 2017. On an average per-store basis, our SG&A grew 3.7%, which was at the high end of our expectations, as we continue to see pressure to wages and variable compensation as well as headwind in fuel expenses driven by increased gas prices and delivery miles driven. On a year-over-year basis, the deleverage resulting from higher-than-normal per store SG&A growth has been the result of our plan to allocate a portion of the savings from the new tax law to the incremental operating expense dollars in 2018 to further enhance our best-in-class customer service.

現在我想花幾分鐘時間討論一下我們本季的銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）情況。銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的 33.5%，比 2017 年下降了 62 個基點。以平均每家門市計算，我們的銷售、一般及行政費用增加了 3.7%，這達到了我們預期的上限，因為我們持續看到工資和可變薪酬面臨壓力，以及汽油價格上漲和配送里程增加帶來的燃料費用上漲。與往年相比，由於每家門市的銷售、一般及行政費用增長高於正常水平，導致槓桿率下降，這是因為我們計劃將新稅法節省的部分資金用於 2018 年新增的營運費用，以進一步提升我們一流的客戶服務。

As we are now well into 2018, we feel these additional investments have been prudent. And we're very confident that our commitment to taking care of the customer by ensuring that we're hiring, training and retaining the very best professional parts people in the industry will drive continued strong performance. We remain on the same path to finish out 2018 in the fourth quarter and continue to expect full year growth in SG&A per store of 3% to 3.5%.

現在已經進入2018年，我們認為這些額外的投資是明智的。我們非常有信心，我們致力於服務客戶，確保我們招募、培訓和留住業內最優秀的專業零件人員，這將推動我們持續取得強勁的業績。我們仍按原計劃完成 2018 年第四季的工作，並繼續預計全年每家店的銷售、管理及行政費用將增長 3% 至 3.5%。

Finally, before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to finish with some comments about our store expansion thus far in 2018 and our plans for the remainder of the year and for 2019. We've successfully opened 171 net new stores in the first 9 months and are on target to hit our goal of 200 net new stores in 2018. As Greg announced in our press release yesterday, we've also set a new store growth target range of 200 to 210 net new stores for 2019. Our store openings in 2018 have been spread across 33 different states, and we continue to be pleased with our opportunities to identify great locations and open with great store teams to profitably grow our business in markets across the country.

最後，在把電話交給湯姆之前，我想就我們2018年至今的門市擴張情況以及今年剩餘時間和2019年的計畫發表一些評論。前 9 個月我們成功開設了 171 家新店，預計在 2018 年實現 200 家新店的目標。正如 Greg 昨天在我們的新聞稿中宣布的那樣，我們還設定了 2019 年新增門市 200 至 210 家的目標範圍。2018 年，我們的門市遍布 33 個不同的州，我們繼續很高興有機會找到絕佳的地點，並組建優秀的門市團隊，從而在全國各地的市場實現業務的盈利增長。

Our 2019 store growth will follow a similar strategy to the past few years, with a balance between our expansion markets in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast; and backfill in existing more mature markets. As I mentioned earlier, our store expansion would not be successful without the amazing support of our distribution teams, and I'm confident we will continue to equip our new store teams with the tools they need to provide outstanding customer service, including the best parts availability in the industry.

2019 年，我們的門市成長將遵循與過去幾年類似的策略，在佛羅裡達州、俄亥俄州、賓州、中大西洋地區和東北部等擴張市場之間取得平衡；同時在現有較成熟的市場進行補充。正如我之前提到的，如果沒有我們配送團隊的大力支持，我們的門市擴張就不會成功。我相信我們將繼續為新門市團隊提供所需的工具，以提供卓越的客戶服務，包括業內最佳的零件供應。

As I close my comments, I want to thank all of Team O'Reilly for their continued dedication to our company's success. We've had a solid year so far and we're in a great position to finish the year strong by out-hustling and out-servicing our competitors, and I'm confident in our team's ability to do just that.

在結束演講之際，我要感謝奧萊利團隊的所有成員，感謝他們為公司的成功所做的持續貢獻。今年到目前為止，我們取得了不錯的成績，我們完全有能力透過比競爭對手更努力、更周到的服務，在年底取得佳績，我對我們團隊做到這一點充滿信心。

Now I'll turn the call over to Tom.

現在我把電話交給湯姆。

Thanks, Jeff. I'd also like to thank all of Team O'Reilly for their continued commitment to the outstanding customer service, which drove our solid performance in the third quarter.

謝謝你，傑夫。我還要感謝 O'Reilly 團隊的所有成員，感謝他們一直以來對卓越客戶服務的堅持，正是這種堅持推動了我們第三季度的穩健業績。

Now we'll take a closer look at our quarterly results and update our guidance for the last quarter of 2018. For the quarter, sales increased $143 million, comprised of a $90 million increase in comp store sales, a $57 million increase in non-comp store sales, a $3 million decrease in non-comp non-store sales and a $1 million decrease from closed stores. For 2018, we continue to expect our total revenues to be $9.4 billion to $9.6 billion.

現在我們將仔細審視我們的季度業績，並更新我們對 2018 年最後一個季度的業績預期。本季銷售額成長 1.43 億美元，其中同店銷售額成長 9,000 萬美元，非同店銷售額成長 5,700 萬美元，非同店非門市銷售額減少 300 萬美元，以及門市關閉導致銷售額減少 100 萬美元。我們預計 2018 年的總收入將達到 94 億美元至 96 億美元。

Our gross margin was up 42 basis points for the quarter as we continue to experience stable merchandise margins and benefited from the LIFO comparison to the prior year. We did not see a LIFO charge during the quarter versus a $3 million charge last year. And for the remainder of the year, we do not expect to have a LIFO charge as a result of our expectation of the impact of tariff-driven cost increases. Tariffs have had a minimal impact to our comps and gross margin thus far in 2018, but the list of parts subject to the 10% tariff is more extensive. However, we continue to expect to pass along cost increases from tariffs to our customers.

由於商品毛利率持續穩定，且受益於與上年同期相比的後進先出法（LIFO），本季度我們的毛利率提高了 42 個基點。本季我們沒有看到後進先出法（LIFO）費用，而去年同期則有 300 萬美元的費用。在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們預計不會因為關稅驅動的成本上漲而產生後進先出費用。2018 年至今，關稅對我們的同店銷售額和毛利率的影響微乎其微，但需繳納 10% 關稅的零件清單範圍更廣。但是，我們仍然希望將關稅上漲帶來的成本增加轉嫁給我們的客戶。

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 had a dramatic impact on our third quarter earnings and will continue to have a significant positive impact on our tax rate on a go-forward basis. Our effective tax rate for the third quarter was 19.6% of pretax income, including the benefit from tax deductions for share-based compensation, which reduced our tax rate by 3%. Excluding the tax benefit from share-based compensation, our effective tax rate of 22.6% was better than our expectations as we continue to refine our estimates of the impact of the Tax Cuts and Job Act on our ongoing tax rate.

2017 年的《減稅與就業法案》對我們第三季的收益產生了巨大影響，並將繼續對我們未來的稅率產生顯著的正面影響。第三季我們的實際稅率為稅前收入的 19.6%，其中包括股權激勵稅收抵免的好處，這使我們的稅率降低了 3%。不計入股權激勵帶來的稅收優惠，我們的實際稅率為 22.6%，優於我們的預期，同時我們將繼續完善對《減稅與就業法案》對我們持續稅率影響的估計。

Also as a reminder, the third quarter rate is typically lower than the remainder of the year due to the tolling of certain open tax periods. We now expect full year tax rate to be 21% to 22% of pretax income. Please keep in mind, changes in the tax benefit from share-based compensation will create fluctuations in our quarterly tax rate as we've seen in the first 3 quarters of 2018.

另外提醒一下，由於某些未結稅期的中止，第三季的稅率通常低於一年中的其他季度。我們現在預計全年稅率為稅前收入的 21% 至 22%。請注意，股權激勵稅收優惠的變化將導致我們季度稅率出現波動，正如我們在 2018 年前三個季度所看到的那樣。

Now we'll move on to free cash flow and the components that drove our year-to-date results in our guidance expectations for the full year of 2018. Free cash flow through the first 3 quarters was $959 million, which was a $254 million increase over the prior year, driven by higher pretax income, lower cash taxes and a higher reduction in our net inventory investment. For the full year, we're maintaining our free cash flow guidance in the range of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion.

現在我們將討論自由現金流以及推動我們2018年全年業績預期（截至目前為止）的各項因素。前三個季度的自由現金流為 9.59 億美元，比上年同期增加了 2.54 億美元，主要得益於稅前收入增加、現金稅減少以及淨庫存投資減少幅度增大。我們對全年自由現金流的預期維持在 11 億美元至 12 億美元之間。

Inventory per store at the end of the quarter was $605,000, which was up 1% from the beginning of the year and from this time last year. We continue to expect to grow per-store inventory in the range of 1% to 2% this year as our ongoing goal is to ensure we grow per-store inventory at a lower rate than the comparable store sales growth we generate.

本季末每家門市的庫存為 605,000 美元，比年初和去年同期成長了 1%。我們預計今年單店庫存成長率仍將保持在 1% 至 2% 之間，因為我們始終的目標是確保單店庫存成長率低於同店銷售成長率。

Our AP to inventory ratio at the end of the quarter was 108%. We expect our AP to inventory ratio to moderate slightly during the fourth quarter as a result of seasonality, but will expect to finish the year at approximately 107%.

本季末，我們的應付帳款與庫存比率為 108%。我們預計第四季應付帳款與庫存比率會因季節性因素而略有下降，但預計全年將達到約 107%。

Finally, capital expenditures for the first 9 months of 2018 were $350 million, which was on par from the same period of 2017 and in line with our expectations. We continue to forecast CapEx to come in between $490 million and $520 million for the year.

最後，2018 年前 9 個月的資本支出為 3.5 億美元，與 2017 年同期持平，符合我們的預期。我們繼續預測今年的資本支出將在 4.9 億美元至 5.2 億美元之間。

Moving on to debt. We finished the third quarter with an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.15x as compared to our ratio of 2.12x at the end of 2017. The increase in our leverage reflects our May bond issuance and borrowings on our unsecured revolving credit facility. We are below our stated leverage target of 2.5x, and we'll approach that number when appropriate.

接下來談談債務問題。第三季末，我們調整後的負債與 EBITDA 比率為 2.15 倍，而 2017 年底的比率為 2.12 倍。我們槓桿率的增加反映了我們5月份的債券發行以及我們無擔保循環信貸額度的借款。我們目前的槓桿率低於既定目標 2.5 倍，我們將在適當的時候接近這個目標。

We continue to execute our share repurchase program, and year-to-date, we've repurchased 4.9 million shares at an average per share price of $269.52 for a total investment of $1.3 billion. We remain very confident that the average purchase price is supported by the expected discounted future cash flows of our business, and we continue to view our buyback program as an effective means for returning available cash to our shareholders.

我們繼續執行股票回購計劃，今年迄今為止，我們已回購了 490 萬股股票，平均每股價格為 269.52 美元，總投資額為 13 億美元。我們仍然非常有信心，平均收購價格能夠得到我們業務預期未來現金流折現的支持，並且我們繼續將股票回購計劃視為向股東返還可用現金的有效手段。

Before I open up our call to answer your questions, I'd like to thank the O'Reilly Team for their dedication to our company and our customers.

在正式開始回答大家的問題之前，我想感謝 O'Reilly 團隊對我們公司和客戶的奉獻。

This concludes our prepared comments. At this time, I'd like to ask to Senarra, the operator, to return to the line, and we'll be happy to answer your questions.

我們的發言到此結束。此時，我想請接線員塞納拉回到線路上，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Matt Fassler from Goldman Sachs.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的馬特法斯勒。

My first question relates to gas prices. So you cited gas prices and miles driven as a risk last quarter. You nonetheless came in towards the high end of your same-store sales guided range. Any thoughts as to how this is playing out in terms of consumers' mindset? And anything you can see in the traffic in the stores or the kinds of categories that are ebbing and flowing that would suggest that the increases in gas prices over the past several months have had any impact on the business?

我的第一個問題與汽油價格有關。所以你上個季度把汽油價格和行駛里程列為風險因素。儘管如此，你的銷售額仍然接近同店銷售預期範圍的高端。您認為這會對消費者的心態產生怎樣的影響？從商店的客流量或商品種類的漲跌情況來看，是否有任何跡象顯示過去幾個月汽油價格的上漲對企業產生了影響？

Sure, Matt, be happy to answer that. We really have the same concern going into the fourth quarter that we had going into the third quarter. And that is that the -- with fuel prices rising, the impact is most likely on the lower-income DIY customers. And this quarter and third quarter and even earlier in the year, the professional side of our business has outperformed the cash side of our business.

當然可以，馬特，我很樂意回答這個問題。進入第四季度，我們和進入第三季度時一樣，都面臨著同樣的擔憂。也就是說，隨著燃油價格上漲，最有可能受到影響的是低收入的DIY用戶。而且，本季、第三季度，甚至今年早些時候，我們業務的專業服務部分都比現金業務部分錶現更好。

And we just -- I don't know if there's any specific evidence in the third quarter to substantiate that, but it is an ongoing concern. As fuel prices continue to increase or stay at a high level for a longer period of time, there's a better chance that it will impact the spending habits of our cash-strapped DIY customers, specifically in -- with them deferring regular maintenance and maybe postponing repairs where they can.

我們只是——我不知道第三季是否有任何具體證據可以證實這一點，但這確實是一個持續存在的問題。隨著燃油價格持續上漲或長期維持在高位，這更有可能影響到我們資金緊張的DIY客戶的消費習慣，尤其是在他們推遲定期保養和維修的情況下。

Great. And then as a quick follow-up. I know that the car park evolution really plays out over a period of years, but presumably you have insights based on what you're selling as to whether we've seen a bottoming in the supply of vehicles best suited to your mix. Any sign -- you think, not necessarily Q3 versus Q2, but this past quarter, the past couple quarters versus the prior that -- versus the few that preceded it, as to whether the drag that the oil industry had experienced from car park vintage might be bottoming, if not turning.

偉大的。然後，作為快速的後續。我知道停車場的演變是一個多年過程，但想必您根據自己的銷售情況，對最適合您車輛組合的車輛供應是否已經觸底反彈有一些見解。你認為，任何跡象——不一定是第三季度與第二季度的比較，而是上個季度、過去幾個季度與前幾個季度的比較——與之前的幾個季度的比較，都表明石油行業自停油以來所經歷的拖累可能已經觸底，甚至有所好轉。

Sure. Well, in the past -- if you look back at 2017, as we've said, there were several things that impacted sales in 2017, one of which we felt was the impact of the SAAR bubble and the car park. We have seen evidence this year, as we've reported, that the professional side of our business is improving. And that's where we expected to see the first improvements, was on that side of our business, as those cars that are coming out of the warranty cycle are more likely to go back to the shops to be repaired at that time. So the improvement in the professional side of our business is evidence that we're trending out of that bubble.

當然。嗯，回顧過去——如果你回顧 2017 年，正如我們所說，有幾件事影響了 2017 年的銷售，其中我們認為是 SAAR 泡沫和停車場的影響。正如我們之前報導的那樣，今年我們已經看到證據表明，我們業務的專業方面正在改善。我們原本期望在業務的這一方面看到首先的改進，因為那些已經過了保固期的汽車更有可能在這個時候回到修理廠進行維修。因此，我們業務專業方面的進步證明我們正在走出泡沫。

Our next question comes from Mike Baker from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的麥克貝克。

Two margin questions. One, when you adjusted the LIFO numbers that you give, it looks like your gross margins excluding LIFO were up this quarter. And that looks like an inflection point versus the last 4 or 5 quarters. So is that all just mix or are you taking price? Is there something else to explain that inflection point?

兩個利潤問題。第一，當你調整了你提供的後進先出法（LIFO）數據後，看起來你本季的毛利率（不包括後進先出法）有所上升。與過去四、五個季度相比，這似乎是一個轉捩點。所以這只是混合價格還是也包含價格？還有其他因素可以解釋這個拐點嗎？

Well, when we see inflationary prices, our industry has historically been able to pass those on. So we remain competitive on our pricing. What we would tell you is that the improvement year-over-year is primarily mix driven for the third quarter.

嗯，當物價上漲時，我們這個產業歷來都能將這些成本轉嫁出去。因此，我們在價格方面保持競爭力。我們可以告訴大家的是，第三季年比改善主要得益於產品組合的最佳化。

Okay. And then as a follow-up to the margin question, as we look ahead to next year, can you provide any early insight into how we might think about gross margin and operating margin for 2019? After -- I think this year will be -- 2018 will be the second year in a row of declines. Any insight into whether this year will be the trough or how we should think about next year?

好的。那麼，作為利潤率問題的後續問題，展望明年，您能否就 2019 年的毛利率和營業利潤率提供一些初步見解？我認為今年——2018 年——將是連續第二年出現下滑。對於今年是否會是低谷期，或者我們應該如何看待明年，有什麼見解嗎？

Well, there's a lot of activity that's going to occur between now and the end of the year, and there's another round of tariffs that potentially could go into impact -- effect, excuse me, in January. So before giving guidance -- and typically, we'll give our guidance on the fourth quarter call -- there's some things that have to transpire for us to better be able to put numbers around that.

從現在到年底，將會有很多事情發生，而且還有新一輪關稅可能會在1月生效——抱歉，應該是在1月生效。因此，在給出業績指引之前——通常情況下，我們會在第四季度電話會議上給出業績指引——還有一些事情需要發生，我們才能更好地給出相關的數字。

So the tariff outlook will have an impact, you think, to that outlook.

所以，您認為關稅前景會對前景產生影響。

I think it'll have an impact on -- it will have an impact on what we see our average ticket doing, our comps doing and also our expenses.

我認為這將對——這將對我們的平均客單價、贈品銷售以及支出產生影響。

Our next question comes from Scot Ciccarelli from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的史考特·西卡雷利。

So we know that SG&A growth is exaggerated this year because of a bunch of labor investments. Obviously, you highlighted that almost a year ago at this point. But if we kind of think about past '18, what are your expectations for SG&A per store growth? Is it something similar to what we've seen this year, just given the incredibly tight labor environment? Or do we get something back to a similar cadence as we saw in, let's call it 2017, 2016, et cetera?

因此，我們知道今年的銷售、一般及行政費用成長被誇大了，因為有大量的勞動力投資。顯然，你大約在一年前就強調過這一點。但如果我們展望一下 2018 年之後的情況，您對每家店的銷售、管理及行政費用成長有何預期？鑑於勞動市場異常緊張，今年的情況是否與我們之前看到的類似？或者我們能否恢復到類似 2017 年、2016 年等年份的節奏？

So again, we will give our 2019 outlook on our next call. As we talked about within this year and in relation to SG&A, we saw a step-function increase in our SG&A as we proactively looked at primarily our IT spend and our store payroll and raised those without the expectation of significant inflation in our selling price. On a go-forward basis, we would expect SG&A pressure to be reflected also in the goods that we sell, as is typical in retail.

所以，我們將在下次電話會議上再次展望2019年。正如我們在今年討論過的，就銷售、一般及行政費用而言，由於我們積極主動地審視了我們的 IT 支出和門店工資，並在沒有預期售價大幅上漲的情況下提高了這些支出，我們的銷售、一般及行政費用出現了階躍式增長。展望未來，我們預期銷售、一般及行政費用壓力也會反映在我們銷售的商品中，這在零售業中很常見。

Our next question comes from Matt McClintock from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬特·麥克林托克。

I understand the conservatism that you're putting in your guidance from rising gas prices, and that makes sense. But how should I think about that lower-income consumer and the impact of rising gas prices, at the same time that the unemployment rate's at an all-time low; and wage pressure that you're experiencing -- and the rest of the retail industry is experiencing, and everyone's experiencing -- should actually increase their purchasing power?

我理解您在應對汽油價格上漲問題上採取的保守策略，這很有道理。但是，在失業率處於歷史低點的同時，我應該如何看待低收入消費者和不斷上漲的汽油價格的影響；以及你們正在經歷的——零售業其他行業正在經歷的，以及每個人都正在經歷的——工資壓力，實際上應該提高他們的購買力嗎？

Tom, do you want to take that?

湯姆，你想拿嗎？

Okay. Gas price is one of the factors that will impact their discretionary income and their ability to fund their life. And when those costs go up, gas prices and expected impact of tariffs and average pricing of auto parts, they have historically attempted to defer maintenance. And we would expect that there's a potential that they will take a look at those inflationary price increases and stretch out their intervals of repair or delay repairs as long as they can. So that's what we've seen in the past. We will see how they react to these inflationary pressures as -- because it'll also be a computation of what happens to their wages.

好的。汽油價格是影響他們可支配收入和生活開支能力的因素。當這些成本上升時，例如汽油價格上漲、關稅預期影響以及汽車零件平均價格上漲，他們歷來都會試圖推遲維修。我們預計他們可能會考慮通貨膨脹導致的價格上漲，並盡可能延長維修間隔或推遲維修。這就是我們過去所看到的。我們將觀察他們如何應對這些通膨壓力，因為這也將關係到他們的薪資會發生什麼變化。

And Matt, to add to that, I mean there were other components, too, that impacted our guide, other than just the inflation component and gas prices. As we discussed, December is a volatile month from us and it's really dependent a lot on weather patterns. And the past 2 Decembers have come with very cold weather, which has driven strong sales. And we're very hopeful for cold, wet winter -- a cold, wet winter, a cold, wet December, early winter again this year.

馬特，我還要補充一點，除了通貨膨脹和汽油價格之外，還有其他因素影響了我們的指南。正如我們之前討論過的，12 月對我們來說是一個波動較大的月份，而且很大程度上取決於天氣模式。過去兩個十二月都遭遇了嚴寒天氣，這推動了強勁的銷售動能。我們非常希望今年能迎來一個寒冷潮濕的冬天——一個寒冷潮濕的冬天，一個寒冷潮濕的十二月，一個早冬。

Also we talked about the impact of the holidays. We talked about New Year's Eve and Christmas Eve falling on a Monday this year as opposed to a weekend last year. And that will result in some of our professional customers likely either being open shorter hours on a weekday, which are typically higher-volume days, or being closed altogether on those holiday eves. So there's several factors that impacted our fourth quarter guidance, over and above just the rising fuel prices and inflation.

我們也討論了節日的影響。我們討論了今年的新年夜和聖誕節前夕都恰逢星期一，而去年則是在周末。這將導致我們的一些專業客戶在工作日（通常是業務量較大的日子）縮短營業時間，或在假日前夕完全關閉。因此，除了燃油價格上漲和通貨膨脹之外，還有幾個因素影響了我們第四季的業績預期。

Our next question comes from Seth Basham from Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

My question is also around inflation, specifically thinking about the potential for tariff rates going to 25% in 2019. I understand your confidence in your ability to pass along cost increases related to inflation, whether it be tariff-related or otherwise, but there's also the potential, as you called out, for demand destruction. In this instance, with such a large potential inflation ahead of us, would you consider not fully passing along some of those cost increases you face to keep the impact on demand to a minimum?

我的問題也與通貨膨脹有關，特別是考慮到 2019 年關稅稅率可能達到 25%。我理解您對將與通貨膨脹相關的成本上漲轉嫁給消費者的能力充滿信心，無論是關稅相關的還是其他方面的，但正如您所指出的，也存在著需求萎縮的可能性。在這種情況下，考慮到未來可能出現的大通膨，您是否會考慮不將部分成本上漲完全轉嫁給消費者，以盡量減少對需求的影響？

Seth, we have had very good success, as you pointed out, passing along what we've seen thus far. And thus far, this last round in September hit a lot more of our product categories than the first 2 rounds. The first 2 rounds were more so related to components and the third round in September was more related to finished goods. What I would tell you is that we push back on our suppliers, both from a -- the amount of tariff they're passing along to us and the timing of what they're passing through. And we didn't experience a full 10% and we don't expect to experience a full 25%, should that go into effect after the 1st of the year. But our plan is to try to push all that through.

塞思，正如你所指出的，我們把目前為止所看到的情況分享出去，取得了非常好的效果。到目前為止，9 月的最後一輪調查涵蓋的產品類別比前兩輪多得多。前兩輪主要與零件有關，而9月份的第三輪則主要與成品有關。我想告訴你們的是，我們會對供應商提出異議，包括他們轉嫁給我們的關稅金額以及轉嫁關稅的時間。我們沒有經歷完整的 10% 的成長，即使 25% 的成長在新年 1 日之後生效，我們也不預期會經歷完整的成長。但我們的計劃是努力推進所有這些工作。

Okay, fair enough. And my follow-up question is thinking about some of the strategic implications of one of your large competitors, Advance Auto, forming a strategic partnership with Walmart. Would you guys ever consider forming a strategic partnership with any online marketplace? And what are your thoughts as it relates to that idea?

好吧，這說得有道理。我的後續問題是，你們的一家大型競爭對手 Advance Auto 與沃爾瑪建立策略夥伴關係，這會對你們產生哪些策略影響？你們有沒有考慮過與任何線上市場建立策略夥伴關係？你對此有何看法？

The concept of us partnering with an e-commerce company or a larger retailer is not something that we've considered. The Advance-Walmart deal is still relatively new, and frankly, we probably know as much or less about that than you guys do. All we know is what we've read.

我們從未考慮過與電子商務公司或大型零售商合作的想法。Advance 與沃爾瑪的合作協議還比較新，坦白說，我們對它的了解可能和你們差不多，甚至更少。我們所知道的一切都來自我們所讀到的。

But today, we have really not even considered partnering with anyone outside of our own company and our own channels to sell auto parts. We are very focused on our omnichannel initiatives and e-commerce initiatives to make inventory more readily available to consumers over whichever channels that they decide to buy auto parts. But we've had no discussions about going outside of our company to sell parts on the Internet.

但如今，我們甚至還沒有考慮過與公司以外的任何人以及我們自己的通路合作銷售汽車零件。我們非常注重全通路計劃和電子商務計劃，以便讓消費者無論選擇哪個管道購買汽車零件，都能更方便地取得庫存。但我們從未討論過在公司外部透過網路銷售零件的問題。

Our next question comes from Brian Nagel from Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的布萊恩·納格爾。

Bigger picture question. As sales have -- as you've commented in your prepared remarks, sales in this -- so far in this year have been much better and then much steadier. So clearly, a nice rebound from what was occurring several quarters ago. But as you look at the data, and you've mentioned, too, that you think the overall environment's getting better, whether it be the car park or other factors. But as you look at these larger, more macro, external factors, are sales now tracking with where they should be, given those factors?

從更宏觀的角度來看這個問題。正如您在準備好的發言稿中所提到的，今年迄今為止的銷售情況要好得多，而且也穩定得多。顯然，這是對幾個季度前情況的一次良好反彈。但正如你查看數據後所提到的，你認為整體環境正在改善，無論是停車場還是其他因素。但是，從這些更大、更宏觀的外部因素來看，考慮到這些因素，目前的銷售額是否達到了應有的水準？

Brian, yes. The short answer is yes. We always want those numbers to be higher. We're never, never pleased with our sales and we also always want to deliver higher sales than what we did the previous quarter. It's what we strive to do every year. But this -- we're tracking on plan this year. We're performing where we felt like we would perform throughout both the third quarter and the year-to-date. So we're relatively pleased.

布萊恩，是的。簡而言之，答案是肯定的。我們總是希望這些數字更高。我們永遠不會對自己的銷售業績感到滿意，我們也總是希望實現比上一季更高的銷售額。這是我們每年努力的目標。但是，今年我們的進度一切順利，正在按計劃進行。我們目前的業績表現與第三季和年初至今的預期表現一致。所以我們比較滿意。

Okay. And then my second question is somewhat of a follow-up to Seth's questions from a second ago. But with regard to tariffs, and clearly you and your industry have had a very good history of passing along higher costs. But is there the potential now, with increased price transparency out there, that, that could limit to some extent your ability to pass along these costs? And have you looked at that or -- and considered that factor as we think about these potential tariffs?

好的。我的第二個問題算是對塞思剛才提出的問題的後續。但就關稅而言，顯然您和您的行業在轉嫁更高成本方面有著非常好的記錄。但是，隨著價格透明度的提高，是否有可能在一定程度上限制你將這些成本轉嫁出去的能力？你們有沒有考慮過這一點，或者說，在考慮這些潛在關稅時，有沒有考慮過這個因素？

Tom, you want to take that one?

湯姆，你想接那個嗎？

When we look at the base cost of the products we sell, no matter what outlet they're going through, those tariffs are going to hit those products the same amount. So there is disparity between what you can buy a part online for and you can buy a part in the store for. And there's also a tremendous amount of service that comes with the immediacy of need, our professional parts people, ability to test parts. Some parts, we'll change out for you. Ability to return something that didn't work, ability to pick up the same day something that you didn't have. And there's a tremendous value in that. So the effect that tariffs raise the price of all the goods sold, to us, we look at what's that price differentiation and what's the value?

當我們查看所售產品的基本成本時，無論它們透過哪個管道銷售，這些關稅都會對這些產品造成相同的影響。因此，在網路上購買零件的價格與在實體店購買零件的價格有差異。此外，我們還能提供大量即時回應服務，我們的專業零件人員能夠測試零件。有些零件，我們會為您更換。能夠退回不適用的商品，能夠當天取回未收到的商品。這其中蘊含著巨大的價值。因此，關稅會提高所有商品的售價，對我們來說，我們關注的是價格差異以及其價值是什麼？

But we also have to remember that most of the price comparisons that we see out there are in branded parts, which are really not the DIY parts. Those are primarily professional parts. And there is an entry level private-label product in virtually every category that's a much more economical fix; it meets OE specs, but much more economical fix for our DIY customers.

但我們也必須記住，我們看到的大多數價格比較都是針對品牌零件的，而這些零件實際上並不是 DIY 零件。這些主要是專業部分。幾乎每個類別都有入門級的自有品牌產品，這是一種更經濟實惠的解決方案；它符合原廠規格，但對於我們的 DIY 客戶來說，這是更經濟實惠的解決方案。

Our next question comes from Chris Bottiglieri from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Bottiglieri。

Very good quarter, but I had just one metric I wanted to focus in on a little bit. Your new store productivity metric, as measured by the difference between revenue and comps divided by square footage, seemed to fall off a little bit. I know that non-store decline is probably a piece of it and perhaps maybe slower DIY growth. Was there any timing in store count or anything else you can kind of call out that would have impacted the ramp up from new stores?

本季表現非常出色，但我只想專注於其中一項指標。您的新門市生產力指標（以收入與同店銷售額之差除以門市面積計算）似乎略有下降。我知道非實體店銷售額的下降可能是原因之一，DIY 業務成長放緩也可能是原因之一。門市數量或其他方面是否有任何時間因素會影響新店的開張速度？

I would tell you that you should look at the numbers from my script -- and they'll be in the Q -- on what non-store, non-comp were. That was the big driver that had to do with just the timing of year end and how we do our new sales return reserves. But we are pleased with our new store performance. They continue to achieve and surpass our expectations. So we're going to continue to move forward. As Jeff talked about, we're going to go to a range 200 to 210 new stores next year. And again, it's that accounting noise that's creating issues in your calculation.

我會告訴你，你應該看看我腳本中的數字——它們會在 Q 中——關於非門市、非競爭性銷售的數據。那是決定年終時間以及我們如何設立新的銷售退貨準備金的主要因素。但我們對新店的業績感到滿意。他們不斷達到甚至超越我們的期望。所以我們會繼續前進。正如傑夫所說，我們明年將開設 200 到 210 家新店。再次強調，正是這些會計上的干擾因素導致了你的計算出現問題。

Got you. The 6,000 -- I think you've historically said 6,000 was the right store potential, and 6,500 if there's consolidation. Is that still the way you're thinking about kind of the long-term store potential when you think about your business?

抓到你了。6000－我認為你過去曾說過6000家門市是合適的潛力，如果進行合併，則是6500家。在考慮業務發展時，您是否仍如此看待店舖的長期潛力？

It is at this point, yes.

是的，就是現在。

Our next question comes from Michael Lasser from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可·拉塞爾。

Based on what you know now, and all else being equal, if you pass through the tariff price increases you're getting into next year, what do you think the inflation contribution to your business, based on a like number of units, would be?

根據你目前所了解的情況，在其他條件不變的情況下，如果你將明年即將面臨的關稅價格上漲轉嫁出去，你認為在銷量相同的情況下，通貨膨脹對你的業務會造成多大的影響？

Again, we have another round of tariffs that may or may not come into effect. We also -- most of our suppliers have on-shore inventory, so we haven't seen all the price effects of the tariffs that we're going to see. We're also actively working to mitigate those. So making comments on next year's inflationary pressures at this point would be premature. So we will update everyone within our guidance, which we give detailed guidance, probably the most detailed guidance in the industry, and give quarterly numbers. So we will provide all of that information on our fourth quarter call.

又一輪關稅政策出台，但這些關稅政策是否生效仍未可知。此外，我們的大多數供應商都有國內庫存，因此我們還沒有看到關稅對價格的全部影響。我們也積極努力減輕這些影響。因此，現在對明年的通膨壓力發表評論還為時過早。因此，我們將按照我們的指導方針向所有人更新信息，我們提供詳細的指導方針，可能是業內最詳細的指導方針，並按季度提供數據。因此，我們將在第四季度財報電話會議上提供所有這些資訊。

And Tom, could you give us the contribution from inflation in the third quarter? And was there any impact from the tariffs as of yet?

湯姆，你能告訴我們第三季通膨的影響嗎？截至目前，關稅是否已經產生任何影響？

Touch on that in my prepared comments. Inflation this year has been around 1%, pretty consistent per quarter. The tariff impact has been very minimal year-to-date, minimal in the third quarter. They've been primarily commodity-based. And we will see how it plays out in the fourth quarter, but expectation is that we will see more inflation.

我會在我準備好的發言稿中談到這一點。今年通貨膨脹率一直維持在1%左右，每季都相當穩定。今年迄今為止，關稅的影響微乎其微，第三季的影響更是微乎其微。它們主要以大宗商品為基礎。我們將看看第四季情況如何，但預計通膨將會加劇。

And my follow-up question is if we look at the spread between O'Reilly's comp, GPC's comp, the retail sales data from the Census Bureau, the spread narrowed a bit this quarter. Now some of it's the timing of when the Sunday fell, but do you -- can you give us a sense for why your share gains might be decelerating a bit?

我的後續問題是，如果我們看一下 O'Reilly 的同店銷售額、GPC 的同店銷售額以及人口普查局的零售銷售數據之間的差距，就會發現本季度差距有所縮小。部分原因在於週日的日期，但您能否解釋為什麼您的股票漲幅可能會有所放緩？

Jeff, do you want to take that one?

傑夫，你想接那個任務嗎？

Yes. Well, I mean, we're pretty pleased with our quarter. I mean we guided 2% to 4% and we came in at a 3.9%. So as Greg said earlier, we can always do better and we're always focused on doing better, but we're pretty happy with the results of the quarter.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，我們對本季的業績相當滿意。我的意思是，我們預期收益率為 2% 到 4%，而實際收益率為 3.9%。正如格雷格之前所說，我們總是可以做得更好，我們也一直專注於做得更好，但我們對本季的業績相當滿意。

As far as what's going on in the field, I mean, we don't really see or hear anything on the street that would indicate that we're losing any share. The business is a -- as we spoke to in the past, is a highly fragmented business, especially on the DIFM side with 37,000 parts stores out there and there's really no underserved market. We have a tremendous amount of respect for all our competitors. But really, we focus on our business model, and that's really doing the best we can on the retail and the professional side of our business in each one of our stores all across the country every day.

至於市場方面的情況，我的意思是，我們並沒有在市場上看到或聽到任何跡象表明我們正在失去任何市場份額。正如我們之前所談到的，汽車產業是一個高度分散的產業，尤其是在DIFM（汽車零件製造商）方面，有37,000家零件商店，實際上並不存在服務不足的市場。我們對所有競爭對手都抱持著極大的尊重。但實際上，我們專注於我們的商業模式，那就是在全國各地的每一家門市，每天都盡我們所能，在零售和專業服務方面做到最好。

Our next question comes from Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的克里斯多福·霍弗斯。

How do you -- following up on the gross margin, how do you expect the mix to play out in the fourth quarter? Do you expect that mix benefit to continue? And then on the current price increases, is there any near-term potential benefit to capture some merchandise margin benefit on your existing inventory cost as you pass along the price increases, perhaps ahead of that next order?

接下來，關於毛利率，您預計第四季的產品組合會如何變化？你認為這種混合投資帶來的好處會持續下去嗎？那麼，在當前價格上漲的情況下，能否在短期內透過降低現有庫存成本來獲得一些商品利潤，從而在下次訂購之前將價格上漲轉嫁給消費者？

Tom, do you want to take that?

湯姆，你想拿嗎？

Yes. On the gross margin, we always plan for normal. So we would expect to have normal fourth quarter gross margins. On the price increases and capturing additional margin, it will depend on the cadence of prices that go out. What I would tell you is because there's so many price increases, we are working very hard with our suppliers to try to defer these price increases. So we're actually paying them either through the inventory that we have or through the inventory that our suppliers have on shore. So I don't think there's a huge opportunity to raise prices in advance, and don't think that, that's our best approach.

是的。在毛利率方面，我們始終以正常水準進行規劃。因此，我們預計第四季度毛利率將保持正常水平。關於價格上漲和獲取額外利潤，將取決於價格出台的節奏。我想告訴大家的是，由於價格上漲的情況很多，我們正在與供應商積極協商，努力推遲這些價格上漲。所以，我們實際上是透過我們自己的庫存或是我們供應商在國內的庫存來支付貨款。所以我認為提前漲價的機會不大，而且我認為那也不是我們最好的方法。

Understood. And then just thinking longer term about passing through price increases. Is the price increase such that you expect to able to maintain the merchandise margin rate? Or is the expectation that you get the inflation in the top line, and that drives better leverage on the fixed costs and gross margin, and that allows you to maintain or potentially expand gross margin.

明白了。然後從長遠角度考慮如何將價格上漲轉嫁出去。物價上漲幅度是否足以維持商品毛利率？或者，預期通貨膨脹會體現在營收上，從而更好地利用固定成本和毛利率，進而維持甚至可能提高毛利率。

When we look at the straight math, our goal is always to maintain our gross margin percentage because we also have expenses that have the same inflationary impact on them.

從直接計算的角度來看，我們的目標始終是維持毛利率，因為我們的支出也會受到通貨膨脹的影響。

Our next question comes from Bret Jordan from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的布雷特喬丹。

Could you talk about regional performance dispersion, strong markets versus weaker markets?

您能否談談區域業績差異，以及強勁市場與疲軟市場之間的對比？

Sure. Jeff, do you want to take that?

當然。傑夫，你想拿嗎？

Well. I mean really it was about what you'd expect coming off a more normalized winter and a better summer across most markets. It was fairly consistent across the country. A couple markets I would call out is the North and the Northeast had a very solid quarter. And the only other comment I would make would be that our Western markets maybe weren't quite as strong as the rest of the company. But that really is due to tougher compares from last year, and they really had a milder summer than normal out West. That didn't help, either.

出色地。我的意思是，這其實和大多數市場經歷了較為正常的冬季和較好的夏季之後所預期的情況差不多。全國各地情況都相當一致。我想特別指出的是，北部和東北地區的市場表現非常穩健。我唯一想補充的是，我們在西方的市場可能不如公司其他地區的市場那麼強勁。但這其實是因為與去年相比，今年的情況更加嚴峻，而且西部地區的夏季氣候也比往年溫和。那也沒用。

Okay, great. And then a follow-up. When you think about the environment with tariffs and the big players making more omnichannel push, does the M&A environment potentially get more active? I mean as some of those smaller players might have a harder time just competing in this environment, do you see either more interested sellers? How you'll be thinking about the next 12 months?

好的，太好了。然後還有後續報道。考慮到關稅環境以及大型企業大力推動全通路策略，併購環境是否有可能變得更加活躍？我的意思是，鑑於一些規模較小的企業在這種環境下可能更難參與競爭，您是否看到更多有意出售的賣家？您如何規劃未來12個月？

The players that are still out there that we would be interested in are good operations that have weathered a lot of storms and have good management teams and are well-capitalized. When we look at those opportunities, what we've seen over the last 2 or 3 years is that we're, as everyone knows, an opportunistic acquirer and consolidator and had success in that realm. But we need a motivated seller. And these companies that are out there, we're still looking at, are good companies, and it's more a timing thing for them than the economic environment.

我們感興趣的仍然是那些運作良好、經歷過很多風雨、擁有優秀的管理團隊且資金雄厚的公司。當我們審視這些機會時，過去兩三年我們看到的是，正如大家所知，我們是一家善於把握機會的收購和整合者，並且在這個領域取得了成功。但我們需要一位積極的賣家。我們仍在關注的這些公司都是不錯的公司，對它們來說，這更多的是時機問題，而不是經濟環境問題。

Yes. Bret, I would add to that. Every year, we'll buy a few 1-, 2-store operations. And this year has really been -- the cadence of this year's acquisition is really no different than we've seen in the past few years. So I wouldn't attribute any change to tariffs or inflation.

是的。布雷特，我還要補充一點。每年我們都會收購一些只有一兩家店的店。今年的收購節奏與過去幾年並無太大不同。所以我不認為任何變化是由關稅或通貨膨脹造成的。

Our next question comes from Kate McShane from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的凱特·麥克沙恩。

I wanted to ask a question around the new DCs. Could you remind us what happens to the surrounding stores when you open up a new DC? Do they get a comp lift of any kind? And what happens with the DC capacity currently used for the nearby stores?

我想問一個關於新資料中心的問題。您能否提醒我們一下，當您開設新的配送中心時，周圍的商店會發生什麼變化？他們是否接受過任何類型的體能訓練？那麼，目前用於附近門市的資料中心容量將作何用途？

Well, historically, I mean the stores that are serviced out of a hub store that do have a new DC open in their market, they've got a much greater SKU offering. They move from somewhere in the neighborhood of 60,000 to 70,000 SKUs up to 150,000, 160,000 SKUs. So they just have much more availability readily in the market. And historically, we have seen a little bit of a comp lift in those markets.

從歷史角度來看，我的意思是，那些由中心商店提供服務的商店，如果在其市場中開設了新的配送中心，那麼它們的 SKU 產品種類就更加豐富。他們的 SKU 數量從大約 6 萬到 7 萬個增加到 15 萬、16 萬個。因此，它們在市場上更容易買到。從歷史數據來看，這些市場的同店銷售情況略有上升。

Yes, you're going to -- Kate, to add to that, what you're going to see as we move to an expansion market is the stores within a reasonable distance from the DCs will have same-day, multiple times a day, access to that DC inventory. And to really add to what Jeff said, from a hub store perspective, not much difference on the outside stores. They're receiving -- that are outside of that perimeter -- they're receiving inventory from a different DC. That doesn't really impact them. The real benefit is to the stores that are within a city counter service area of the DC.

是的，你會的——凱特，補充一點，隨著我們向擴張市場邁進，你會看到距離配送中心合理距離內的商店將可以當天多次獲取配送中心的庫存。補充一下 Jeff 的說法，從中心門市的角度來看，外部門店並沒有太大差別。他們正在接收——那些位於該邊界之外的——他們正在從不同的配送中心接收庫存。那對他們來說其實沒什麼影響。真正的受益者是位於配送中心城市櫃檯服務區域內的商店。

Okay, great. And if I could just ask just another comp lift, market share question. In the press release and in your commentary, you mentioned you're opening another 200 to 210 stores, based on your comp -- your increased market share. Is there something different that you're seeing in the market for these new stores that you're opening versus what you've done in the past with store openings?

好的，太好了。我還能再問一個關於市場佔有率和公司業績提升的問題嗎？在新聞稿和您的評論中，您提到根據您的同店銷售情況（即您不斷增長的市場份額），您將再開設 200 至 210 家門市。您發現，與您過去開設的門市相比，此次新店的市場狀況有何不同？

As Jeff said in his prepared comment, we don't go into any underserved markets. So every market is competitive. We continue to have a lot of confidence in our business model and how we execute and our ability to take share in any market we go into. But we would tell you that it's been pretty consistent for a number of years, the competitiveness of each market. The one thing I would tell you is that when we look at the Northeast, as we saw on the West Coast, is that development time to get stores open take longer.

正如傑夫在事先準備好的評論中所說，我們不會進入任何服務不足的市場。所以每個市場都是競爭性的。我們對我們的商業模式、執行方式以及在任何進入的市場中佔據份額的能力仍然充滿信心。但我們可以告訴你，多年來，各市場的競爭狀況一直相當穩定。我想告訴你們的是，當我們觀察東北地區時，就像我們在西海岸看到的那樣，商店開業的開發時間會更長。

Our next question comes from Zach Fadem from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的紮克法德姆。

Could you speak to the impact of weather and Hurricane Florence in the quarter compared to Harvey last year, particularly on the DIY side? And do you foresee any notable impact from Hurricane Michael or the flooding in Texas to play out in your business in Q4 and ahead?

能否談談天氣和颶風「佛羅倫斯」對本季的影響，與去年的颶風「哈維」相比，尤其是在DIY方面的影響？您預計颶風“邁克爾”或德克薩斯州的洪水會在第四季度及以後對您的業務產生任何顯著影響嗎？

As far as Florence, I mean, we had roughly 100 stores that were closed during the event, mainly due to mandatory evacuations. So there's no doubt that it cost us some business. Our goal in any natural disaster is to get back in the stores as quick as we possibly can, ensure our team members' safety and then get back in the stores. Even though it might be a skeleton crew, at least get the doors open to be there for our customers. So we try to open back in the markets as quick as anybody to provide the post-hurricane supplies that the customers desperately need.

就佛羅倫薩而言，我的意思是，事件發生期間大約有 100 家商店關閉，主要是因為強制疏散。毫無疑問，這給我們造成了一些業務損失。在任何自然災害中，我們的目標是盡快恢復營業，確保團隊成員的安全，然後再恢復營業。即使人手不足，至少也要開門營業，為顧客提供服務。因此，我們努力以最快的速度重新開放市場，為顧客提供颶風過後急需的物資。

I mean there's a tremendous amount of goodwill created when your doors are open and you've got a family that's without power, potentially without power for days or weeks, and we can supply a generator where they can keep their food from spoiling or have some lights on. So anything that we would lose in the pre-hurricane, there's always some tailwind after the event. But it normally -- as we've seen in the ones last year, it was somewhat of a push.

我的意思是，當你敞開大門，幫助一個可能連續幾天甚至幾週都停電的家庭時，我們可以提供發電機，讓他們的食物不至於變質，或者讓他們有燈可亮，這就能創造巨大的善意。所以，我們在颶風來臨前失去的任何東西，颶風過後總是會有一些有利因素。但通常情況下——正如我們在去年的比賽中看到的那樣——這在某種程度上是一種推動。

Got it. And on the SG&A line in the quarter, I just want to confirm that the step change is -- it's primarily wages and some IT investments. And for Q4, is it fair to expect that the SG&A per store will come back to that 3% to 3.5% range that you've spoken about for the year?

知道了。關於本季的銷售、一般及行政費用，我只想確認一下，最大的變化是──主要是薪資和一些IT投資。那麼，第四季每家店的銷售、管理及行政費用能否回到您先前提到的全年目標 3% 至 3.5% 的範圍內呢？

That would be a fair estimate, and the components will be the same. We had some additional pressure on some other lines that put us above 3.5% for the third quarter.

這個估計比較合理，而且各個部件都是一樣的。我們其他一些業務也面臨一些額外的壓力，這使得我們第三季的成長率超過了 3.5%。

Our next question comes from Simon Gutman from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙古特曼。

Simeon, good quarter. A follow-up on the do-it-for-me business. You mentioned, I think, ticket positive. I missed it if you talked about traffic -- how traffic is trending, or I guess, transaction count in do-it-for-me.

西蒙，好季度。關於「代辦服務」業務的後續報告。我想，你提到了票務方面的正面影響。如果你談到了流量——流量趨勢，或者我猜，例如「幫我完成」的交易量，那我肯定錯過了。

Yes. So on the DIFM side of the business, both were positive.

是的。因此，就 DIFM 業務而言，兩者都是積極的。

Okay. And is that rate -- has that rate changed a bit during the year? Is it accelerating? If you could -- to sort of support the comment that we're getting past that bubble.

好的。這個利率－這個利率在這一年是否有所變動？它是否在加速？如果你可以的話——這算是對「我們正在走出泡沫」這句話的一種佐證。

It's remained pretty solid.

它一直保持著相當穩定的狀態。

Okay. And then just thinking about demand for next year, looking at the sweet spot. I don't know if there's a nuance, but how do you look at it between 6 to 11-year-old vehicles, just the 12? Do you look at vehicles only? Or do you include light trucks? And I'm asking because if you kind of run the waterfall, it does produce all healthy but different magnitudes of outcomes. Curious if there's one version that you rely on more than another.

好的。然後就開始考慮明年的需求，尋找最佳平衡點。我不知道這其中是否有細微差別，但是對於車齡 6 到 11 年的車輛，以及只有 12 年的車輛，您是如何看待的呢？你只關注車輛嗎？或者，你們也包括輕型卡車嗎？我這麼問是因為，如果你按照瀑布式流程運行，它確實會產生各種健康但程度不同的結果。很好奇你是否更依賴某個版本。

Well, we've talked about coming -- we talked about last year that the bubble was a pressure to us, especially on the professional side of the business because it was the weight of the tailwind of more vehicles was being offset in the professional side by that bubble. And that bubble worked through over time. But we felt like 2018 would -- that headwind we faced had abated.

嗯，我們之前討論過這個問題——去年我們就討論過，泡沫經濟給我們帶來了壓力，尤其是在業務的專業方面，因為汽車數量增加帶來的順風效應在專業方面被泡沫經濟所抵消。隨著時間的推移，泡沫破裂了。但我們感覺 2018 年會是這樣——我們面臨的逆風已經減弱了。

We would expect, as those years to go through, that we'll see some pressure; it'll end up being more in the DIY side. We see relief on the professional side this year. But we'd expect, on a go-forward basis, to start -- to not have that headwind, to have a little bit of a tailwind. As far as the years, as you said, there's many ways to look at it. We tend to look at 5- to 15-year-old cars and light trucks.

我們預計，隨著時間的推移，我們將面臨一些壓力；最終壓力將更集中在 DIY 方面。今年職業賽場上出現了一些令人欣慰的消息。但從長遠來看，我們預期──不會再有逆風，而是會有一些順風。至於年份的問題，正如你所說，有很多種看待這個問題的方式。我們通常會關注車齡在 5 到 15 年之間的轎車和輕型卡車。

Thank you. We have now reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Greg Johnson for closing remarks.

謝謝。提問環節時間已到。現在我將把電話交還給格雷格·約翰遜先生，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, Senarra. We'd like to conclude our call today by thanking the entire O'Reilly Team for their continued hard work and delivering another solid quarter. I'd like to thank everyone for joining our call today, and we look forward to reporting our 2018 full year results in February. Thank you.

謝謝你，塞納拉。今天，我們想在電話會議結束之際，感謝奧萊利團隊全體成員的持續努力，並感謝他們又一個穩健的季度業績。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議，我們期待在二月公佈 2018 年全年業績。謝謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。