O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the O'Reilly Automotive Inc's. First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jenny, and I'll be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Tom McFall. Mr. McFall, you may begin.

歡迎來到 O'Reilly Automotive Inc.。2018年第一季財報電話會議。我叫珍妮，今天由我來為您接聽電話。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。現在我將把電話交給湯姆·麥克福爾。麥克福爾先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Jenny. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. During today's conference call, we will discuss our first quarter 2018 results and our outlook for the second quarter and full year of 2018. After our prepared comments, we will host a question-and-answer period.

謝謝你，珍妮。各位早安，感謝各位的參與。在今天的電話會議上，我們將討論我們 2018 年第一季的業績以及我們對 2018 年第二季和全年的展望。在我們發表完準備好的評論後，我們將安排問答環節。

Before we begin this morning, I'd like to remind everyone that our comments today contain forward-looking statements, and we intend to be covered by, and we claim the protection under the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as estimate, may, could, will, believe, expect, would, consider, should, anticipate, project, plan, intend or similar words.

在今天早上開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述，我們打算遵守 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中關於前瞻性陳述的安全港條款，並主張該條款的保護。你可以透過諸如估計、可能、可以、將、相信、預期、會、考慮、應該、預計、預測、計劃、打算或類似詞語等前瞻性詞語來識別這些陳述。

The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors described in the company's latest annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017, and other recent SEC filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call.

由於本公司截至 2017 年 12 月 31 日止年度的最新 10-K 表格年度報告以及其他近期提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的幾個重要因素，本公司的實際業績可能與任何前瞻性聲明有重大差異。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

At this time, I'd like to introduce Greg Henslee.

在此，我謹向大家介紹格雷格‧亨斯利。

Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the O'Reilly Auto Parts First Quarter Conference Call. Participating on the call with me this morning are our Co-Presidents, Greg Johnson and Jeff Shaw; as well as Tom McFall, our Chief Financial Officer; and David O'Reilly, our Executive Chairman, is also present.

謝謝你，湯姆。各位早安，歡迎參加歐萊利汽車配件公司第一季電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的有我們的聯合總裁格雷格·約翰遜和傑夫·肖；以及我們的首席財務官湯姆·麥克福爾；我們的執行董事長大衛·奧萊利也出席了會議。

Hopefully, everyone has had a chance to read our first quarter earnings press release last night. I'll make just a few brief comments on our first quarter results before turning the call over to Greg, Jeff and Tom.

希望大家都有機會閱讀我們昨晚發布的第一季財報新聞稿。在將電話會議交給 Greg、Jeff 和 Tom 之前，我將就我們第一季的業績做幾句簡短的評論。

I'd like to begin by congratulating Team O'Reilly on a solid first quarter and by thanking our team of over 76,000 dedicated team members for their continued commitment to providing the excellent service that earns our customers' business every day.

首先，我要祝賀 O'Reilly 團隊第一季的優異成績，並感謝我們超過 76,000 名敬業的團隊成員，感謝他們持續致力於提供卓越的服務，從而每天贏得客戶的信賴。

Our team was able to deliver a solid comparable store sales increase of 3.4% and a 28% increase in earnings per share in the first quarter, both of which were above the midpoint of our guidance ranges and are a testament to the relentless focus of our professional parts people on taking outstanding care of our valued customers.

我們的團隊在第一季度實現了同店銷售額增長 3.4%，每股收益增長 28%，這兩項數據均高於我們預期範圍的中點，這證明了我們專業的零件人員始終致力於為我們尊貴的客戶提供卓越的服務。

I'll let Greg provide more color on our results and outlook for the remainder of the year during his prepared comments, but I will add that we were pleased with our start to the year and remain confident in the health of our business and our team's ability to provide industry-leading customer service and drive profitable growth in 2018.

我會讓 Greg 在事先準備好的發言中更詳細地介紹我們的業績和今年剩餘時間的展望，但我還要補充一點，我們對今年的開局感到滿意，並且對我們業務的健康發展以及我們團隊在 2018 年提供行業領先的客戶服務和推動盈利增長的能力充滿信心。

As we announced in February, Greg Johnson will be promoted to the position of Chief Executive Officer in conjunction with our annual shareholders' meeting on May 8, and I will continue my career with O'Reilly both on an executive role and board member as Executive Vice Chairman subject to election by our shareholders. I have a lot of confidence in both Greg and Jeff Shaw, who will be promoted to Chief Operating Officer in conjunction with Greg's promotion. Greg and Jeff are outstanding examples of our company's culture of promoting from within, and I'm very confident in their ability to lead our company and I'm very excited about what our future holds under their leadership.

正如我們在二月宣布的那樣，Greg Johnson 將在 5 月 8 日的年度股東大會上晉升為首席執行官，而我將繼續在 O'Reilly 擔任執行職務和董事會成員，擔任執行副董事長，但需經股東選舉。我對 Greg 和 Jeff Shaw 都非常有信心，Jeff Shaw 將與 Greg 一起晉升為營運長。格雷格和傑夫是我們公司內部晉昇文化的傑出代表，我對他們領導我們公司的能力充滿信心，也對在他們的領導下公司的未來充滿期待。

This succession plan continues to progress very smoothly and as a result, this quarter's conference call represents my last call as CEO. And from this point forward, I will be present during the calls along with David O'Reilly, but will not be an active participant during our prepared remarks and Q&A, similar to the role David has played for many years. As such, it is appropriate for me to leave the bulk of our discussion of our first quarter results to Greg, Jeff and Tom. But before I turn the call over, I would like to thank our shareholders, many of which have been loyal owners of our company since I assumed the role of CEO, for their outstanding support of our company.

這項繼任計畫進展非常順利，因此，本季的電話會議將是我作為執行長的最後一次電話會議。從現在開始，我將和戴維·奧萊利一起參加電話會議，但不會像戴維多年來扮演的角色那樣，積極參與我們準備好的發言和問答環節。因此，我認為應該把我們第一季業績的大部分討論留給格雷格、傑夫和湯姆。但在我把電話交給別人之前，我想感謝我們的股東們，他們中的許多人自從我擔任執行長以來一直是公司的忠實股東，感謝他們對我們公司的大力支持。

I would also like to again thank Team O'Reilly for their excellent work and commitment to our customers during my tenure as CEO. It's been my honor to have served as Chief Executive Officer of our incredible company the past 13 years, and I look forward to our company's continued success in the future.

我還要再次感謝 O'Reilly 團隊在我擔任執行長期間所做的出色工作和對客戶的盡心盡力。在過去的13年中，我非常榮幸能夠擔任我們這家卓越公司的首席執行官，我期待著公司在未來繼續取得成功。

I'll now turn the call over to Greg Johnson, who will be hosting our question-and-answer session following the remainder of our prepared comments. Greg?

現在我將把電話交給格雷格·約翰遜，他將在我們其餘準備好的演講結束後主持問答環節。格雷格？

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to begin my comments today by congratulating our team on a solid start in 2018 and thanking them for their continued dedication to providing exceptional service to our customers.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。今天，我首先要祝賀我們的團隊在 2018 年取得了良好的開端，並感謝他們一直以來致力於為客戶提供卓越的服務。

As Greg mentioned, this unwavering commitment to customer service drove comparable store sales and earnings per share results, which were above the midpoint of our guidance, and we're very well positioned to continue to drive profitable growth throughout 2018.

正如格雷格所提到的，這種對客戶服務的堅定承諾推動了同店銷售額和每股收益的成長，這些業績都高於我們預期的中位數，我們完全有能力在 2018 年繼續推動獲利成長。

Now I'd like to provide some additional color on our first quarter comparable store sales results.

現在我想就我們第一季的同店銷售業績再補充一些細節。

Both our professional and DIY sides of the business were positive contributors to our comparable store sales growth with professional performing better as we saw strong ticket count growth on that side of the business in the first quarter. Average ticket continues to be a strong contributor to our comparable store sales increase, driven by the increasing complexity of vehicle repairs and favorable overall business mix and continued effective pricing management, which benefited from some inflation on same SKU pricing, primarily on seasonal items similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter of 2017.

我們專業的服務和 DIY 業務都對同店銷售額的成長做出了積極貢獻，其中專業業務表現更佳，我們在第一季度看到了該業務的強勁客單價增長。平均客單價繼續成為我們同店銷售成長的重要貢獻者，這得益於車輛維修日益複雜化、整體業務組合有利以及持續有效的定價管理，而這又受益於同 SKU 價格的一些通膨，主要是季節性商品的通膨，類似於我們在 2017 年第四季度看到的情況。

On a category basis, we saw strength in winter-related categories throughout the quarter in most of our markets, partially offset by some pressure late in the quarter for typical spring maintenance categories as a result of the continued cool wet weather we experienced much across the country.

從類別來看，本季大部分市場的冬季相關品類表現強勁，但由於全國大部分地區持續的涼爽潮濕天氣，本季後期典型的春季維護品類受到一定壓力，部分抵消了冬季相關品類的強勁表現。

When we look at our sales progression during the quarter versus our expectations, our comparable store sales increase was consistently solid throughout the year, with the best performance realized in January as we benefited from normal winter weather. As winter extended well into the quarter, we saw some pressure from the delayed arrival to spring at the very end of our first quarter, but in aggregate, March results were still very solid and in line with our expectations.

當我們審視本季銷售進度與預期之間的比較時，我們發現全年同店銷售成長一直保持穩健，其中一月份表現最佳，這得益於正常的冬季天氣。由於冬季持續到本季末，春季到來延遲給我們帶來了一些壓力，但總體而言，3 月份的業績仍然非常穩健，符合我們的預期。

Our professional business performance was consistently solid throughout the first quarter and, as we would expect, the weather resulted in significant volatility on the DIY side of our business. As we look ahead to the second quarter, we are establishing our comparable store sales guidance at a range of 2% to 4% and reiterating our full year guidance at the same 2% to 4%.

第一季度，我們的專業業務表現一直非常穩健，正如我們所預期的那樣，天氣導致我們的 DIY 業務出現了巨大的波動。展望第二季度，我們將同店銷售額預期設定為成長 2% 至 4%，並重申全年預期同樣為成長 2% 至 4%。

In establishing our guidance for the year on last quarter's earnings call, we discussed our major assumptions for our industry for 2018, which included our expectation that we would see modest improvement in miles driven as the unemployment -- as the employment and economic outlook for consumers remain stable with the potential for any increase in gas prices pressuring lower income consumers and constraining the growth of miles driven. We still feel these assumptions continue to be appropriate, and remain confident in our full year guidance after a solid start to the year in the first quarter.

在上個季度的財報電話會議上，我們制定了今年的業績指引，並討論了我們對 2018 年行業的主要假設，其中包括我們預期隨著失業率的下降，汽車行駛里程將略有改善——因為就業和消費者的經濟前景保持穩定，而汽油價格的任何上漲都可能給低收入消費者帶來壓力，並限制汽車行駛里程的增長。我們仍然認為這些假設是合適的，並且在第一季取得穩健開局後，我們對全年業績指引仍然充滿信心。

Also included within our sales growth assumptions is an expectation for normal winter -- or for normal weather and that's exactly how we would characterize what we saw this winter. After very mild winters the previous 2 years, much more inclement weather this winter season should help drive business throughout the year. However, while the comparison to the past 2 years is much more favorable, we really view this as a normal winter and our assumptions for the benefit we received throughout 2018 are in line with the typical failure-related demand driven by normal winter weather.

我們的銷售成長假設中也包含了對正常冬季的預期——或者說對正常天氣的預期，而這正是我們對今年冬天所見情況的描述。前兩年冬季氣候溫和，今年冬季惡劣天氣應該有助於推動全年業務成長。然而，雖然與過去兩年相比情況要好得多，但我們仍然認為這是一個正常的冬季，我們對 2018 年全年所獲收益的假設與正常冬季天氣引起的典型故障相關需求相符。

As I mentioned previously, we did experience some pressure to our DIY comparable store sales performance at the end of March as a result of the delay of typical spring weather and that pressure has continued into April as we continue to see very unseasonably cold and wet weather throughout many of our markets. While we don't provide specific details for such a short time frame, I can't say that our performance so far in the quarter outside of these easily identified weather impacted specific days on the DIY side of our business is in line with our expectations, and we continue to be pleased with the performance of our professional business, which is much less impacted by the delay in spring weather. While we certainly are ready for spring to finally arrive in all of our markets, we've experienced this kind of volatility in mother nature's timing several times before, and we remain confident in our outlook for the second quarter as we move past this temporary pressure.

正如我之前提到的，由於典型的春季天氣延遲到來，我們在 3 月底的 DIY 同店銷售業績確實面臨一些壓力，而且這種壓力一直持續到 4 月，因為我們在許多市場繼續看到非常不合時宜的寒冷和潮濕天氣。雖然我們無法在如此短的時間內提供具體細節，但我不能說，除了這些容易識別的受天氣影響的特定日期外，我們本季度迄今為止在 DIY 業務方面的表現符合我們的預期，而我們對專業業務的表現仍然感到滿意，該業務受春季天氣延遲的影響要小得多。雖然我們非常期待春天最終降臨到我們所有的市場，但我們之前也多次經歷過大自然時機上的這種波動，隨著我們克服了這種暫時的壓力，我們對第二季度的前景仍然充滿信心。

For the quarter, our gross margin of 52.6% was within our expectations and our full year gross margin guidance of 52.5% to 53% of sales. The improvement of 17 basis points versus the first quarter of 2017 was driven by a modest improvement in merchandise margin and a lower LIFO charge, which was partially offset by pressure from the increased transportation cost.

本季毛利率為 52.6%，符合預期，全年毛利率目標為銷售額的 52.5% 至 53%。與 2017 年第一季相比，改善了 17 個基點，這主要得益於商品毛利率的略微提高和 LIFO 費用的降低，但部分被運輸成本增加帶來的壓力所抵消。

We continue to see rational pricing within our industry and are leaving our full year guidance for gross margin unchanged.

我們認為業界的價格依然保持合理，因此維持全年毛利率預期不變。

As we outlined when we provided our 2018 guidance on the fourth quarter 2017 conference call, we are significant beneficiaries of tax reform and feel it appropriate to allocate some of these savings back into the business to continue to improve the levels of service we offer our customers.

正如我們在 2017 年第四季度電話會議上提供 2018 年業績指引時所概述的那樣，我們是稅收改革的重大受益者，我們認為應該將部分節省下來的資金重新投入到業務中，以繼續提高我們為客戶提供的服務水平。

The cost of these investments were in line with our plan in the first quarter and we're pleased that our teams were able to generate a solid 5% growth on operating profit dollars, while also investing in our business. We continue to expect our full year operating profit for 2018 to be within our previously guided range of 18.5% to 19% of sales. This unwavering commitment to profitable growth also resulted in a 28% increase in our earnings per share to $3.61 for the first quarter, which reflects our solid sales and operating profit growth as well as the benefit of the lower tax rate and reduced share count.

第一季這些投資的成本符合我們的計劃，我們很高興我們的團隊能夠在實現營業利潤5%的穩健成長的同時，也對我們的業務進行了投資。我們仍預期 2018 年全年營業利潤將達到先前預期的銷售額的 18.5% 至 19%。對獲利成長的堅定承諾也使我們第一季的每股盈餘成長了 28%，達到 3.61 美元，這反映了我們穩健的銷售額和營業利潤成長，以及較低的稅率和減少的股份數量帶來的好處。

For the second quarter, we are setting our earnings per share guidance at $3.95 to $4.05. We are also updating our full year EPS guidance to a $15.30 to $15.40, an increase of $0.20 at the midpoint, reflecting our first quarter results and the shares we have purchased through the call today.

第二季度，我們預計每股收益為 3.95 美元至 4.05 美元。我們同時將全年每股收益預期更新為 15.30 美元至 15.40 美元，中位數上調 0.20 美元，反映了我們第一季的業績以及我們今天透過電話會議購買的股票。

Tom will discuss our tax rate in detail in a few moments, but I would remind everyone that our full year guidance includes the impact of shares repurchased through this call, but does not include any additional share repurchases.

Tom 稍後會詳細討論我們的稅率，但我提醒大家，我們全年的業績指引包括透過本次電話會議回購的股票的影響，但不包括任何額外的股票回購。

To close my prepared remarks, I'd like to add my thanks to the team for solid performance in the first quarter and their continued dedication to our customers. Greg leaves some very big shoes to fill as CEO, but I'm extremely excited for the opportunities that lie ahead for Team O'Reilly and I'm fully committed to the company's continued success. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff Shaw. Jeff?

最後，我要感謝團隊在第一季取得的優異成績，以及他們對客戶的持續奉獻。Greg 卸任 CEO 後，留下的空缺非常大，但我對 O'Reilly 團隊未來的發展機會感到無比興奮，我將全力以赴，確保公司繼續取得成功。現在我將把電話交給傑夫·肖。傑夫？

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to echo Greg's comments and thank our team members for their hard work and dedication to providing top-notch customer service. Our team's high level of dedication was more apparent than ever this past quarter as we experienced a normal winter after 2 years of mild winters and our team members battled the elements to keep our stores open to take care of our customers, as many of our stores experienced multiple rounds of inclement weather.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。我完全同意格雷格的觀點，並感謝我們團隊成員的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，為客戶服務提供了一流的服務。在過去一個季度，我們經歷了兩年暖冬之後，迎來了一個正常的冬季，我們團隊的高度敬業精神比以往任何時候都更加明顯。我們的團隊成員與惡劣的天氣作鬥爭，以確保我們的門市保持開放，為顧客提供服務，因為我們的許多門市都經歷了許多惡劣天氣。

We certainly welcome the sales demand created by the typical winter weather, but without our store team's efforts to keep our stores open for our customers and our DC team's hard work in completing their routes and keeping our stores in stock, we wouldn't have been able to capitalize on this demand.

我們當然歡迎典型的冬季天氣帶來的銷售需求，但如果沒有我們門店團隊努力保持門店營業，為顧客提供服務，以及我們配送中心團隊辛勤工作完成配送路線，確保門市庫存充足，我們就無法利用這種需求。

As significant as the sales we pick up is the lasting goodwill that we earn from customers when we're the only parts store in town able to meet a customer's critical needs during bad weather.

銷售額固然重要，但當我們是鎮上唯一一家能夠在惡劣天氣下滿足客戶關鍵需求的零件商店時，我們贏得的持久好感也同樣重要。

Now I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing our SG&A results for the quarter. For the first quarter, we delevered 34 basis points with an average SG&A per store growth of 2.7%, which was driven by the portion of the tax savings that we're allocating to the incremental operating expense dollars in 2018 to further enhance our best-in-class customer service.

現在我想花幾分鐘時間討論一下我們本季的銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）情況。第一季度，我們降低了 34 個基點的槓桿率，平均每家門市的銷售、一般及行政費用增加了 2.7%，這主要得益於我們將部分稅收節省分配給 2018 年新增的營運費用，以進一步提升我們一流的客戶服務。

The incremental investment in the first quarter consisted primarily of enhancing our team member benefit plans and was in line with our expectations. We remain confident in the opportunities we have to strengthen our industry-leading customer service through redeploying a portion of the tax savings, and we continue to expect to follow the plan that we outlined on our fourth quarter 2017 conference call.

第一季的新增投資主要用於改善團隊成員福利計劃，符合我們的預期。我們仍然對透過重新部署部分稅收節省來加強我們行業領先的客戶服務的機會充滿信心，並且我們將繼續按照我們在 2017 年第四季度電話會議上概述的計劃執行。

We had some other puts and takes in SG&A during the quarter, including a benefit we realized on the positive outcome from the settlement of a long-standing litigation with a former service provider, which was offset by incremental SG&A expense associated with the charge for a change in direction on a specific technology innovation project under development.

本季我們在銷售、一般及行政費用方面還有一些其他的進出，包括因與前服務提供商達成長期訴訟和解而獲得的積極結果，但被與正在開發的特定技術創新項目方向改變相關的額外銷售、一般及行政費用所抵消。

In total, our SG&A for the first quarter was in line with our expectations and our guidance for the full year growth in SG&A per store is unchanged at 3% to 3.5%. Our expense control focus is a key component of the Team O'Reilly culture and each of our managers is held accountable for the profitability of their individual store, DC or corporate department.

整體而言，我們第一季的銷售、一般及行政費用符合預期，我們對全年每家門市銷售、一般及行政費用成長的預期仍為 3% 至 3.5%。控製成本是奧萊利團隊文化的重要組成部分，我們每位經理都要對其各自門市、配送中心或公司部門的獲利能力負責。

Moving forward, we will remain diligent in scrutinizing every operating expense dollar we spend with the top priority continuing to be enhancing the customer service in each of our stores by ensuring we attract and retain outstanding team members who have the desire to live the O'Reilly culture and gain the automotive knowledge that's required to be a professional parts person and supporting those teams with the tools they need to deliver excellent customer service each and every day.

展望未來，我們將繼續認真審查每一筆營運支出，首要任務仍然是提高每家門市的客戶服務水平，確保我們吸引並留住優秀的團隊成員，他們渴望融入歐萊利的企業文化，並獲得成為專業零件人員所需的汽車知識，同時為這些團隊提供必要的工具，使他們能夠每天提供卓越的客戶服務。

Now I'd like to spend some time talking about our store expansion during the quarter and our plans for the remainder of the year. In the first quarter, we opened 78 net new stores, which was just shy of our planned openings for the period. Not surprisingly, the extended winter weather disrupted construction on some of our projects, however, we continue to be confident in our plan to open 200 net new stores for the year.

現在我想花點時間談談我們本季的門市擴張情況以及我們今年剩餘時間的計劃。第一季度，我們淨增新店 78 家，略低於我們計劃的開業數量。不出所料，漫長的冬季天氣擾亂了我們一些項目的建設，但是，我們仍然對今年淨增 200 家門市的計劃充滿信心。

During the first quarter, we opened stores in 25 different states as we continue to identify great opportunities to open stores across all of our market areas. Our coast-to-coast footprint allows us to be very selective in new store site selection and, more importantly, it allows us time to develop and train great teams of parts professionals who are ready to provide top-notch customer service from day 1.

第一季度，我們在 25 個不同的州開設了門市，我們將繼續尋找在所有市場區域開設門市的絕佳機會。我們遍布全國的業務網絡使我們能夠非常謹慎地選擇新店址，更重要的是，這使我們有時間培養和訓練優秀的零件專業人員團隊，從第一天起就能提供一流的客戶服務。

We continue to be very pleased with the performance of our store openings and very optimistic about our future growth prospects as we continue to identify attractive new store locations, staffing those stores with great teams and taking share in the new markets.

我們對新店開幕的業績非常滿意，並且對未來的成長前景非常樂觀，因為我們將繼續尋找有吸引力的新店址，為這些門市配備優秀的團隊，並在新市場中佔據份額。

Before I finish up today, I'd like to once again thank our store and distribution teams for their continued dedication to providing the best customer service in our industry.

在今天結束之前，我想再次感謝我們的門市和配送團隊，感謝他們一直致力於提供業界最好的客戶服務。

We're off to a solid start in 2018, and we're well positioned to continue to provide our customers top-notch customer service and the best parts availability in the industry. Our teams are committed to winning our customers' business each and every day by outhustling and outservicing our competition and I'm confident in our team's ability to deliver an outstanding year in 2018.

2018 年我們開局良好，我們有能力繼續為客戶提供一流的客戶服務和業內最佳的零件供應。我們的團隊致力於每天透過比競爭對手更加努力、提供更優質的服務來贏得客戶的業務，我對我們的團隊在 2018 年取得優異成績的能力充滿信心。

Now I'll turn the call over to Tom.

現在我把電話交給湯姆。

Thanks, Jeff. I would also like to thank all of Team O'Reilly on a solid first quarter. Now we'll take a closer look at our quarterly results and update our guidance for the full year.

謝謝你，傑夫。我還要感謝奧萊利團隊在第一節比賽中的出色表現。現在我們將仔細審視季度業績，並更新全年業績預期。

For the quarter, sales increased $126 million comprised of the $72 million increase in comp store sales, a $53 million increase in non-comp store sales, a $2 million increase in noncomp nonstore sales and a $1 million decrease from closed stores. For 2018, we continue to expect our total revenues to be $9.4 billion to $9.6 billion.

本季銷售額成長 1.26 億美元，其中包括同店銷售額成長 7,200 萬美元，非同店銷售額成長 5,300 萬美元，非同店非門市銷售額成長 200 萬美元，以及因門市關閉而減少 100 萬美元。我們預計 2018 年的總收入將達到 94 億美元至 96 億美元。

As Greg mentioned earlier, our gross margin was up 17 basis points and benefited from a lower LIFO charge, which totaled approximately $1 million in the first quarter of 2018, compared to a charge of $7 million in 2017, with the lower charge driven by price decreases from vendor negotiations, mostly offset by commodity cost increases.

正如 Greg 之前提到的，我們的毛利率上升了 17 個基點，這得益於較低的後進先出 (LIFO) 費用。 2018 年第一季度，該費用總計約 100 萬美元，而 2017 年的費用為 700 萬美元。費用降低是由於供應商談判導致價格下降，但大部分被商品成本上漲所抵銷。

We expect to see a LIFO charge in the second quarter of around $5 million, but our actual results will be driven by our ongoing negotiations with suppliers and potential cost inflation. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 had a dramatic impact on our first quarter earnings and will continue to have a significant positive impact on our tax rate on a go-forward basis. Our combined effective tax rate for the first quarter was 22.9% of pre-tax income, which included a benefit from tax deductions for share-based compensation, which totaled approximately 1.6% of pretax income. Excluding the tax benefit from share-based compensation, our effective tax rate of 24.5% was in line with our expectations.

我們預計第二季將產生約 500 萬美元的後進先出 (LIFO) 費用，但我們的實際業績將取決於我們與供應商的持續談判以及潛在的成本上漲。2017 年的《減稅與就業法案》對我們第一季的收益產生了巨大影響，並將繼續對我們未來的稅率產生顯著的正面影響。第一季我們的綜合有效稅率為稅前收入的 22.9%，其中包括股權激勵稅收抵免的收益，該收益約佔稅前收入的 1.6%。不計入股權激勵帶來的稅收優惠，我們的實際稅率為 24.5%，符合我們的預期。

Our first quarter 2018 tax rate compares favorably to the tax rate of 31.2% for the first quarter of 2017 as a result of the lower federal tax rate, partially offset by a smaller benefit from share-based compensation.

由於聯邦稅率降低，我們 2018 年第一季的稅率與 2017 年第一季的 31.2% 的稅率相比有所下降，但部分被股權激勵收益減少所抵銷。

For the full year of 2018, we continue to expect our tax rate to be approximately 23% to 24% of pretax income and continue to expect the quarterly tax rate to be relatively consistent. However, the change in tax benefit from share-based compensation will create some fluctuations in our quarterly tax rate as a percent of our pretax income.

2018 年全年，我們預計稅率約為稅前收入的 23% 至 24%，並預期季度稅率將保持相對穩定。然而，股權激勵帶來的稅收優惠變化將導致我們季度稅率佔稅前收入的百分比出現一些波動。

Now we'll move on to free cash flow and the components that drove our results for the year and our guidance expectations for the full year of 2018.

現在我們將討論自由現金流以及推動我們今年業績的各項因素，並展望 2018 年全年的業績預期。

Free cash flow for the first quarter was $311 million, which was a $68 million increase from the prior year, driven by higher income and a smaller increase in our net inventory investment than in the prior year. For the full year, we are maintaining our free cash flow guidance of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. Inventory per store at the end of the quarter was $599,000, which was flat from the end of 2017. Our ongoing goal is to ensure we grow per store inventory at a lower rate in the comparable so sales growth we generate, and we continue to expect our -- to grow our per store inventory in a range of 1% to 2% this year.

第一季自由現金流為 3.11 億美元，比去年同期增加 6,800 萬美元，主要原因是營收增加以及淨庫存投資增幅小於去年同期。我們對全年的自由現金流預期維持在 11 億美元至 12 億美元之間。本季末每家門市的庫存為 599,000 美元，與 2017 年底持平。我們持續的目標是確保每家門市的庫存成長速度低於同店銷售成長速度，我們預計今年每家門市的庫存成長速度將保持在 1% 到 2% 之間。

Our APV inventory ratio at the end of the first quarter was 106%, which was where we ended 2017. We anticipate a slight improvement to 107% by the end of, 2018, which will be driven by the higher level of sales. Finally, capital expenditures for the first quarter of the year were $115 million, which is up slightly from the same period of 2017 and in line with our expectations. We continue to forecast CapEx at $490 million to $520 million for the full year of 2018.

第一季末，我們的 APV 庫存比率為 106%，與 2017 年末的水準相同。我們預計到 2018 年底，這一比例將略微提高至 107%，這主要得益於更高的銷售額。最後，今年第一季的資本支出為 1.15 億美元，比 2017 年同期略有成長，符合我們的預期。我們繼續預測 2018 年全年資本支出為 4.9 億至 5.2 億美元。

Moving on to debt. We finished the first quarter with an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.18x as compared to our ratio of 2.12x at the end of 2017. The increase in our leverage ratio reflects incremental borrowings on our unsecured revolving credit facility and is in line with our targeted range of 2 to 2.25x.

接下來談談債務問題。第一季末，我們調整後的負債與 EBITDA 比率為 2.18 倍，而 2017 年底的比率為 2.12 倍。我們的槓桿率上升反映了我們無擔保循環信貸額度的新增借款，符合我們 2 至 2.25 倍的目標範圍。

We continue to execute our share repurchase program and, year-to-date, we have repurchased 2.6 million shares at an average share price of $248.80 for a total investment of $636 million. We remain very confident that the average repurchase price is supported by expected discounted future cash flows for our business, and we continue to view our buyback as an effective means of returning available cash to shareholders.

我們繼續執行股票回購計劃，今年迄今為止，我們已以平均每股 248.80 美元的價格回購了 260 萬股股票，總投資額為 6.36 億美元。我們仍然非常有信心，平均回購價格能夠得到我們業務預期未來現金流折現的支持，我們繼續將股票回購視為向股東返還可用現金的有效手段。

Finally, before I open up our call to your questions, I'd like to thank the O'Reilly Team for their dedication to the company and our customers.

最後，在正式開始回答大家的問題之前，我想感謝 O'Reilly 團隊對公司和客戶的奉獻。

This concludes our prepared comments and at this time, I'd like to ask Jenny, the operator, to return to the call and we'll be happy to answer your questions.

我們的發言到此結束，現在請接線生珍妮回到電話旁，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we have a question from Matt Fassler from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們收到高盛的 Matt Fassler 的提問。

My question relates to margin. Obviously, your sales performance was quite solid relative to expectations. I know that for Q1, it looks like EBIT margin was towards the low end of the range with sales above the midpoint of the range, and you seem to be guiding Q2 operating margin, just comes from a bottoms up perspective, to show bigger decline than it did in Q1. So can you talk about how cost pressures or any other factors impacting margin are evolving as you move through the year?

我的問題與利潤率有關。顯然，你的銷售業績相當不錯，超出了預期。我知道第一季的息稅前利潤率似乎處於區間低端，而銷售額高於區間中點，而且您似乎從自下而上的角度預測第二季度的營業利潤率將比第一季下降幅度更大。那麼，您能否談談隨著時間的推移，成本壓力或其他影響利潤率的因素是如何變化的？

Tom, you want to take that one?

湯姆，你想接那個嗎？

Sure. When we look at our operating margin guidance, just for the full year, when you look at the balance of other sales, the first quarter is the lowest average daily volume based on the seasonality of our business and we have a relatively high fixed cost business model. So that's why you see us at the lower end of our range. Typically, the second and third quarters are higher operating profits because of the higher sales dollars.

當然。當我們審視全年的營業利潤率預期時，考慮到其他銷售收入的平衡，第一季的平均每日銷量最低，這是由於我們業務的季節性因素造成的，而且我們的固定成本業務模式相對較高。所以這就是為什麼你會看到我們的產品定位在產品系列的低端。通常情況下，第二季和第三季的營業利潤較高，因為銷售額較高。

And can you talk about how factors like shipping, for example, whether it's diesel or freight rates, et cetera, are revolving relative to expectations? Or are they intensifying? Or have they leveled off as you think about the remainder of the year?

您能否談談運輸等因素，例如柴油價格或運費等，是如何相對於預期而變化的？或者它們正在加劇？或者，隨著你對今年剩餘時間的展望，它們是否已經趨於穩定？

When we look at those, we call that out on our fourth quarter call that our expectation was we were going to see pressure in those areas and that's why we wouldn't get more leverage out of our DC cost on higher sales and those costs have been in line with our expectations thus far this year.

當我們審視這些面向時，我們在第四季度電話會議上指出，我們預計這些領域將面臨壓力，這就是為什麼我們無法從更高的銷售額中獲得更大的配送中心成本槓桿效應，而這些成本今年到目前為止都符合我們的預期。

And our next question comes from Michael Lasser from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可·拉塞爾。

Greg, congratulations again on taking a step back or a step up. My question relates to your commentary around quarter-to-date trend in the second quarter. You kind of went to lengths to talk about some of the weather impacts and softness in the DIY business. So is that -- are we to assume that it's worse so far quarter-to-date than you saw in March when there were similar weather impacts that impacted the DIY business?

格雷格，再次恭喜你做出退步或升遷的決定。我的問題與您在第二季度迄今為止的趨勢評論有關。你似乎花了不少篇幅來談論天氣對 DIY 產業的影響和靈活性。所以，我們是否可以假設，本季迄今的情況比 3 月的情況更糟，當時類似的天氣因素也對 DIY 產業造成了影響？

Michael, we're not going to share any details over a very short period of time thus far in the quarter. But as we said on our prepared comments, weather has impacted us late in the first quarter, leading into the second quarter. And at the end of the first quarter, our DIFM business continue to be strong and in the markets where we had good spring-type weather, our DIY business was strong. In markets where we had and -- where there were a lot of weekends, during the month of March that the weather was okay, and in the weekends, resulted in snow and cold weather again, which impacts the DIY side of our business. So what I'll tell you is this, that what we've seen thus far in April supports our 2% to 4% guide and we feel good about our guidance for the quarter.

邁克爾，在本季度目前的很短時間內，我們不會透露任何細節。但正如我們在事先準備好的評論中所說，天氣在第一季末到第二季初對我們造成了影響。第一季末，我們的 DIFM 業務持續保持強勁勢頭；在春季天氣良好的市場，我們的 DIY 業務也表現強勁。在我們擁有許多週末的市場中，3 月天氣還不錯，但到了週末，又會下雪下寒，這影響了我們 DIY 業務的方面。所以我要告訴大家的是，4 月至今我們看到的情況支持我們 2% 到 4% 的成長預期，我們對本季的業績預期感到樂觀。

Okay. My follow-up question is on the longer-term margin outlook for the business, there's a lot of concerns about price transparency and the potential for gross margins to come down. We have seen that your operating margin will be under a little pressure that's due to some investments. So can you just provide a bit of a framework on how we should think about, once we get past this year, what does the longer run margin outlook for O'Reilly look like?

好的。我的後續問題是關於公司長期利潤率前景的，許多人擔心價格透明度以及毛利率下降的可能性。我們已經看到，由於一些投資，您的營業利潤率將面臨一些壓力。那麼，您能否簡要概述一下，在度過今年之後，我們該如何思考 O'Reilly 的長期利潤前景？

Michael, this is Tom. I'll take that one. We've given guidance for this year, we think that when you look at the value proposition that our business provides customers, it continues to be very strong. It will be strong in the future. To give margin expectations beyond this year is not something that we typically do, but I would tell you that we remain very comfortable with the long-term opportunities for our business.

邁克爾，這是湯姆。我選那個。我們已經給出了今年的業績指引，我們認為，從我們業務為客戶提供的價值主張來看，它仍然非常強勁。它未來會很強大。我們通常不會給出今年以後的利潤率預期，但我可以告訴大家，我們對公司業務的長期發展機會仍然非常有信心。

In comfortable, would it mean that you're not expecting it to go down meaningfully over time?

舒適的意思是，你不認為它會隨著時間的推移而顯著下降嗎？

We are -- we think that our business model will remain similar as it has for the past decade. Obviously, retail continues to evolve, but we're comfortable with the value proposition that we provide.

我們認為，我們的商業模式將與過去十年來的模式保持一致。零售業顯然在不斷發展變化，但我們對我們提供的價值主張感到滿意。

And our next question comes from Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的克里斯多福·霍弗斯。

Curious, you talked about the DIY volatility at the end of the quarter, but could you shed some light on the commercial performance? Were trends relatively consistent over the quarter in an absolute sense or sort of relative to your own expectations? And does the timing of spring tend to impact that side of the business as well as -- do people bring their cars in for oil changes and tire changes as weather breaks historically?

很好奇，您談到了季度末的 DIY 市場波動，但您能否談談商業市場的表現？從絕對意義上講，或者說相對於您自己的預期而言，本季的發展趨勢是否相對穩定？春季的到來是否也會對這方面的業務產生影響？例如，人們是否會在天氣變暖時把車開來更換機油和輪胎？

Yes, Chris. I'll start that one and then I'll turn it over to Jeff and see if he wants to add a little more color. But generally, what I'll tell you is across the country throughout the quarter, our DIFM was stronger than our DIY for the reasons we talked about in our prepared comments and what I said earlier. From a weather perspective, because most of our DIY customers do their repairs outdoors, in their driveway, what have you, they're more susceptible to weather than the DIFM customers. DIFM customers, the shops can do the work no matter what the temperature is, no matter what the level of precipitation is. So the DIFM side is less dependent upon weather or contingent upon whether than the DIY side project. Jeff, do you want to add something to that?

是的，克里斯。我先開始畫，然後交給傑夫，看看他是否想再添加一些色彩。但總的來說，我要告訴大家的是，在整個季度中，全國範圍內，我們的 DIFM 比 DIY 更強勁，原因正如我們在準備好的評論和我之前所說。從天氣角度來看，由於我們的大多數 DIY 客戶都在戶外（例如自家車道上）進行維修，因此他們比 DIFM 客戶更容易受到天氣的影響。DIFM 的客戶，無論氣溫如何，無論降水量如何，店鋪都能進行施工。因此，DIFM 方面受天氣或是否適合自己動手的項目的影響較小。傑夫，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes, yes. I would say that we look, and looking back at 2017, our professional business was just really soft throughout the majority of the year, and we knew at some point it would have to pick up, which we start seeing that in the fourth quarter. And those trends continue well into the end of the first quarter and there's no doubt that the more normalized winter weather benefited our professional customers and that's kind of carried through. They're not near as impact, as Greg said, by the cold spring. But we're pretty excited over what the rest of the year holds as far as, hopefully, some pent-up demand from the more normalized winter and longer-term demand created by that. I was reading an article the other day on pot holes. I think it was a AAA article. It was talking about the damage, I think it was like $3 billion of damage that's done annually from pot holes. Obviously, that would be more the case with the kind of weather that we've had. And the average repair is somewhere in the neighborhood of $300. So we'd hope to see some more of that throughout the remainder of the year.

是的，是的。我想說，回顧 2017 年，我們的專業業務在一年中的大部分時間都非常疲軟，我們知道它遲早會好轉，而我們在第四季度開始看到了這種好轉。這些趨勢一直持續到第一季末，毫無疑問，更正常的冬季天氣對我們的專業客戶有利，而且這種趨勢一直延續了下來。正如格雷格所說，受寒春的影響遠沒有那麼大。但我們對今年剩餘時間的前景感到非常興奮，希望隨著冬季氣候趨於正常化，一些被壓抑的需求能夠得到釋放，並由此產生長期需求。前幾天我讀了一篇關於路面坑洞的文章。我想那是一篇AAA的文章。文章談到了路面坑洞造成的損失，我記得好像是每年因坑洞造成的損失高達 30 億美元。顯然，在我們目前經歷的這種天氣條件下，這種情況會更加明顯。平均維修費用約 300 美元。所以我們希望在今年餘下的時間裡看到更多這樣的情況。

That's a great segue to my follow-up, which is what do you -- from an evidence point that the weather and the car park theses, like, what are you seeing in -- under car suspension, brakes, that sorts of demand that would support the view that there should be a good a lag impact from the weather or maybe that's just too early?

這正好引出了我的後續問題，那就是——從證據的角度來看，天氣和停車場的理論，比如，你在汽車懸吊、煞車等方面看到了什麼，這些需求是否支持天氣應該會產生明顯滯後影響的觀點，或者現在下結論還為時過早？

Chris, it's really playing out exactly as we would've thought. When you look back in January, early in the quarter, where we had the biggest impacts of winter weather, we were selling categories you would expect to sell. We're selling winter-related, weather-related categories, lighting and batteries and wipers, things like that, some rotating electrical spike back in January. And as you move through the quarter, and we get into March where you typically see warmer weather, and you see the long-term effects of the harsher or more normal winters than we've had and the pot holes that Jeff spoke about, later in the quarter, the encouraging part is on the DIFM side of the business. We've started to see growth come back in steering, suspension, chassis type lines, which is what we would typically in the spring, and we expect that to follow on the DIY side as the weather cooperates.

克里斯，事情的發展真的跟我們預想的一模一樣。回顧一月份，也就是季度初，當時我們受到了冬季天氣的最大影響，但我們銷售的商品類別仍然是預期會暢銷的。我們銷售與冬季和天氣相關的產品，例如照明設備、電池和雨刷器等等，一月份的時候出現了一些波動性電力激增的情況。隨著季度推進，進入三月份，通常天氣會變暖，我們也會看到比往年更嚴酷或更正常的冬季帶來的長期影響，以及傑夫提到的種種問題。在本季後期，令人鼓舞的是，DIFM業務的情況有所改善。我們已經開始看到轉向、懸吊、底盤類型產品線的銷量回升，這通常是我們在春季會看到的，我們預計隨著天氣好轉，DIY 方面的銷量也會隨之回升。

And our next question comes from Bret Jordan from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的布雷特喬丹。

Could you talk a little bit about regional performance? I got on a couple seconds late, so maybe it was in the prepared remarks. But maybe talk about market strength versus weakness and maybe what the spread was between the best and the worst markets.

能談談區域表現嗎？我遲到了幾秒鐘，所以也許演講稿裡有相關內容。但或許可以談談市場強弱，以及市場表現最好和最差之間的差距。

Sure. Jeff, you want to take that one?

當然。傑夫，你想接那個嗎？

Well, really, it's about what you'd expect. I mean, early weather was good in most markets and then as we move kind of later into the quarter, the markets that weren't as affected by the cold snowy were weather performed better than the markets that were affected from kind of the lingering weather. As Greg said earlier, I think in all markets where we've seen normal spring-type weather, our business has been pretty decent.

其實，這跟你預想的差不多。我的意思是，大多數市場在季度初天氣狀況良好，然後隨著我們進入季度後期，那些未受寒冷多雪天氣影響的市場表現優於那些受持續惡劣天氣影響的市場。正如格雷格之前所說，我認為在所有經歷了正常春季天氣的市場，我們的業務都相當不錯。

Okay. And then a question on your inflation comment. I guess some of the same SKUs that are going up, and we saw it in batteries, I guess, in the first quarter, there were some supply shortage and pricing went up. Have those inflationary prices held? And I guess, from a inflation standpoint from your suppliers, what are you hearing from folks that are seeing labor costs coming up in Asia and metals costs and factoring costs going up? I was to talk from the end of supply chain about inflation on a full year basis.

好的。然後，我想問一個關於您之前對通貨膨脹的評論的問題。我猜想，一些價格上漲的 SKU 也出現了同樣的情況，我們在電池領域也看到了這一點，我想，在第一季度，由於供應短缺，價格上漲了。這些通膨價格是否持續存在？我想，從供應商那裡，從通貨膨脹的角度來看，你從那些看到亞洲勞動成本、金屬成本和保理成本上漲的人那裡聽到了什麼消息？我原本要從供應鏈末端的角度，談談全年的通貨膨脹狀況。

Yes, Bret, there's talk about inflation. There's talk about tariffs. We're talking about all those things. From an inflation standpoint, we have seen a bit more inflation on the input side this quarter than we've seen in previous quarters. Most of it is commodity driven, but we've started to see some. We've been able to mitigate most of that by passing that along to end user pricing.

是的，布雷特，現在確實有人在談論通貨膨脹。有傳言說要徵收關稅。我們正在討論所有這些事情。從通膨角度來看，本季投入方面的通膨比前幾季高一些。大部分是由商品需求驅動的，但我們已經開始看到一些其他因素。我們已經透過將成本轉嫁給最終用戶來緩解了大部分問題。

And our next question comes from Scot Ciccarelli from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的史考特·西卡雷利。

The other question about kind of the commercial versus DIY, I guess. So commercial outpaced DIY. The question is really, would you assume that means that the worst of maybe the car park issues are behind you at this point? Or do you think that performance still was really just driven by weather and based on what you see by region, by product category, it really suggests weather was the primary reason we saw that difference.

另一個問題大概是關於商業化生產和DIY的差別吧。因此，商業發展超過了DIY。問題其實是，您是否認為這意味著停車場問題最糟糕的部分已經過去了？或者您認為業績仍然只是受天氣影響，根據您按地區、按產品類別觀察到的情況來看，天氣確實是造成這種差異的主要原因。

This is Tom, Scot. We talk to the fact that we really felt like in 2018, the light SAAR years entering the (inaudible) of our business, which tends highly to the professional side of the business, was going to stop being a headwind and flatten out. It's what our numbers showed us. So we think it's the combination of that vehicle population dynamic, along with weather that's helping drive that professional business to better results and have more opportunity on that side of the business than we have last year.

這是湯姆，蘇格蘭人。我們談到，我們真的覺得在 2018 年，進入我們業務（聽不清楚）的 SAAR 年數（這部分業務高度傾向於專業方面）將不再是逆風，而是趨於平穩。我們的數據也證實了這一點。因此，我們認為正是車輛保有量的變化，加上天氣因素，才使得專業業務取得了更好的業績，並且比去年我們在這個業務領域擁有了更多的機會。

All right. So hard to delineate at this point. And then the second question is, with the debt leverage ratio approaching your target, should we assume interest expense largely flattened at the current run rate? Or should it continue to drop down?

好的。目前很難界定。第二個問題是，隨著債務槓桿比率接近您的目標，我們是否應該假設利息支出基本上保持在目前的運作水準？或者它會繼續下跌嗎？

Well, we would expect our interest rate to -- expense to be relatively flat for the first quarter to the extent that we don't issue additional bonds or incur additional debt. So I would plan for it to be the same. When we look at our guidance, we don't plan for additional debt or additional share repurchases in our guidance.

嗯，我們預計第一季的利率支出將相對平穩，前提是我們不發行額外的債券或承擔額外的債務。所以我打算用同樣的方式計劃。從我們的業績指引來看，我們的指引中沒有增加債務或股票回購的計畫。

And our next question comes from Mike Baker from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的麥克貝克。

Longer term picture question here. Just what -- has something changed in this business in that you're guiding to 2% to 4% this year, which is certainly better than last year. But weather and -- or I should say the winter was more normal, the car park is -- the pressure there has peaked. 2% to 4% is a good number, but below the 4% plus that you guys generated for years. So what's changed bigger picture? Is it more competition? Is it less inflation? Is it less share opportunity? Or some other guys maybe have stopped believing as much? Just curious, your thoughts there.

這裡要問的是更長遠的問題。究竟是什麼原因導致貴公司今年的業績預期為 2% 至 4%，這當然比去年好。難道是這個行業發生了什麼變化嗎？但是天氣——或者應該說冬天更正常一些，停車場——那裡的壓力已經達到了頂峰。2%到4%是個不錯的數字，但低於你們多年來一直保持的4%以上的水平。那麼，從更宏觀的角度來看，發生了什麼變化呢？競爭加劇了嗎？通貨膨脹率降低了嗎？市佔率機會是否減少了？或者有些人可能已經不再那麼相信了？只是好奇，你對此有什麼看法？

Tom, do you want to speak to the guidance?

湯姆，你想和指導老師談談嗎？

When we look at our guidance, when we look at -- we have some ups and downs in our business over the years and we've all been in the business for a long time and we're going to see years where comps, because of customer demand and vehicle dynamics, run higher and some like last year, where it runs lower. And we feel 2% to 4% comp guidance is the prudent guidance to give. We've delivered right in the middle of -- middle of that range in the first quarter, and we're comfortable with our guidance for the second quarter and the full year.

當我們審視我們的業績指引時，當我們審視——多年來，我們的業務經歷了一些起伏，我們在這個行業也待了很長時間，我們會看到有些年份，由於客戶需求和車輛動態，同店銷售額會上升，而有些年份，比如去年，同店銷售額會下降。我們認為給予的薪酬成長預期為 2% 至 4% 是審慎的。我們第一季的業績剛好達到預期範圍的中間值，我們對第二季和全年的業績預期感到滿意。

And I presume you're not going to be talking about years beyond this year, so we can't -- any color on whether that's sort of the right outlook longer term as we try to model out beyond the next 3 quarters or is that something that you talk about at a later date?

我猜您不會談論今年以後的事情，所以我們無法——您能否就未來三個季度以後的長期前景作任何說明，或者這是您以後會討論的內容？

Well, we see -- when we look at that demand drivers for our business, number of vehicles down the road, miles driven, the population increases. We expect those drivers to continue to increase and drive demand in our business over the long term. And I think if you look at the AIA, they look at 1% to 3% DIY growth year-after-year and a 2% to 4% on the professional side over a long time horizon, and we expect to continue to outperform the market.

我們看到—當我們觀察我們業務的需求驅動因素時，例如道路上的車輛數量、行駛里程以及人口成長。我們預計這些驅動因素將持續成長，並在長期內推動我們業務的需求。我認為，如果你看看友邦保險，他們預計個人理財業務每年增長 1% 到 3%，專業理財業務長期增長 2% 到 4%，我們預計將繼續跑贏市場。

Okay. One more if I could. This is for Greg Johnson. Any thoughts on -- any big changes to the strategy? Maybe 1 thought, perhaps a little bit more aggressive M&A, tuck-in acquisitions, anything along those lines that you think the company will evolve towards under your leadership?

好的。如果可以的話，我再來一個。這是給格雷格·約翰遜的。對於策略方面有什麼想法－會有什麼重大調整嗎？或許有一點想法，也許會採取更積極的併購策略、補充收購之類的舉措，您認為在您的領導下，公司會朝著這些方向發展？

Mike, I think we've got a very sound business model we've executed on for years under David's leadership, under Greg's leadership. Market changes, retail changes, we'll adapt. Fundamentally, we're going to continue to do the same things we've done, which has been very successful for us. From an M&A standpoint, we continue to look for acquisition candidates, both inside and outside the U.S. borders. It's what we've been doing for a few years now and we'll continue to do those things. There'll be some change and we'll adapt to a changing retail environment, whether Greg's our CEO or I'm our CEO. But fundamentally, we feel like our business model works and works very well, and I don't see any substantial changes.

麥克，我認為我們已經建立了一個非常健全的商業模式，並在大衛和格雷格的領導下成功執行多年。市場變化，零售業變化，我們會適應。從根本上講，我們將繼續做我們一直在做的事情，這些事情對我們來說非常成功。從併購的角度來看，我們將繼續尋找收購目標，包括美國境內和境外的目標。我們過去幾年一直在這樣做，以後也會繼續這樣做。零售環境會有一些變化，我們會適應這種變化，無論格雷格還是我擔任執行長。但從根本上講，我們覺得我們的商業模式行之有效，而且效果非常好，我看不出有什麼實質的改變。

And our next question comes from Greg Melich from MoffettNathanson.

下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Greg Melich。

I wanted to step back just a little bit. I think you gave a lot of good information on -- how the pro did better and was more durable. And it sounds like inflation is back at least a bit. But what is -- we're growing transaction counts in the quarter? I mean, if we look at that comp, was there positive transactions and is that true in the DIY as well?

我想稍微後退一步。我認為你提供了很多有用的信息，包括專業版如何表現更好、更耐用。聽起來通貨膨脹至少有回升。但是，我們本季的交易量卻在成長，這是怎麼回事？我的意思是，如果我們看一下那個比較案例，是否有正向交易？ DIY 領域的情況也是如此嗎？

Ticket count grew more on the DIFM side as well as the ticket average on the DIY side. Growth was in ticket average.

DIFM 方面的票數成長較多，而 DIY 方面的平均票數也有所成長。增長體現在平均票價上。

Okay. So overall traffic transactions might have been up 1%, and then the rest was ticket. Would that be a fair way to think about it?

好的。因此，整體交通交易量可能增加了 1%，其餘部分都是罰單。這樣想是否合理？

Overall, ticket counts were slightly down.

總體而言，門票數量略有下降。

Okay. And if we think about the growth in the basket, was -- how much of that would have been inflation versus, let's say, mix? I think you mentioned a lot of -- more undercarriage and those sort of higher ticket item parts.

好的。如果我們考慮商品籃子中的成長，那麼其中有多少是通貨膨脹造成的，又有多少是其他因素造成的呢？我想你提到了很多——更多的底盤部件和那些價格較高的零件。

Yes, it is more so mix. We haven't seen enough inflation to really move the needle on that yet.

是的，更像是混合體。我們還沒有看到足以真正改變這個局面的通貨膨脹。

And our next question comes from Liz Suzuki, Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Liz Suzuki。

So growth in miles driven has started this low. Is there any concern that consumer travel trends are changing in a structural way and that it could be a headwind for the auto parts industry probably? Or do you think it's more of a temporary impact from higher gas prices?

因此，行駛里程的成長是從這個低點開始的。消費者出行趨勢是否正在發生結構性變化，而這可能會對汽車零件產業造成不利影響？還是你認為這比較是汽油價格上漲帶來的暫時性影響？

It is probably a temporary deal for gas prices. We've seen this trend before. As gas prices grow and as gas prices really grow over time, consumers will do a really good job of adapting to that and changing their budgets accordingly. When gas prices spike very quickly, sometimes that's not the case, but I feel like today, the miles driven is a result of slight increases in gas prices and we're watching that very closely. And it -- frankly, we baked this into our plan. We budgeted for a little higher gas price, fuel cost into our 2018 plan.

這很可能只是暫時的天然氣價格協議。這種趨勢我們以前就見過。隨著汽油價格上漲，尤其是隨著時間的推移，汽油價格持續上漲，消費者將能夠很好地適應這種情況，並相應地調整他們的預算。當汽油價格快速飆升時，有時情況並非如此，但我覺得今天行駛里程的增加是由於汽油價格略有上漲造成的，我們正在密切關注這一點。坦白說，我們早就把這一點納入了我們的計劃。我們在 2018 年的計畫中預留了應對汽油價格略微上漲的預算，即燃料成本。

If I could add to that, Greg. In '14, '15, '16, we saw average miles driven at the high end of the average range. So on a year-over-year basis, it's not growing as fast, but it continues to be pretty close to the long-term average and continues to be a driver of our business in solid positive territory.

格雷格，如果我能補充一點的話。2014、2015、2016 年，我們看到平均行駛里程處於平均範圍的高端。因此，從同比來看，它的成長速度沒有那麼快，但它仍然非常接近長期平均水平，並且仍然是我們業務穩定成長的驅動力。

Great. And how competitive do you think the pricing environment has been for national brand products that you can find online or at Walmart or at other auto parts change? And what percentage of your sales and profit do you think are in the more competitive product category?

偉大的。您認為在網路上、沃爾瑪或其他汽車零件商店可以買到的全國性品牌產品的價格競爭環境如何？您認為貴公司銷售額和利潤中，有多少百分比來自競爭較激烈的產品類別？

Yes. I don't know about percentage per se, but we're competitive with our peers, our brick-and-mortar peers, absolutely. And then in most cases, we're competitive with the online retailers. There are certainly examples where online national pricing, someone will have it less than us and someone will have a higher price than us. But from a brick-and-mortar perspective, our national brand pricing would be in line with our competitors. And most of our online business results in the transaction ending in our stores. We're driving more footsteps to our stores through our online business, and we get the consumer in our store. We have a very competitive product offering even when we have an online retailer that may have a lower price point on the national brand. We will have a comparable product often in a private label offering that would have an equal to or lower price point even than the lowest priced online retailers. Jeff, do you want to add to that?

是的。我不太清楚具體的百分比，但我們絕對有競爭力，和我們的實體店同行相比，我們絕對有競爭力。而且在大多數情況下，我們都能與線上零售商競爭。當然，在全國範圍內的線上定價中，肯定存在這樣的情況：有人的價格比我們低，有人的價格比我們高。但從實體店的角度來看，我們的全國品牌定價將與我們的競爭對手保持一致。我們的線上業務最終大部分都是在我們的實體店完成交易。我們透過線上業務為實體店帶來了更多客流量，也讓消費者走進了我們的實體店。即使有線上零售商以更低的價格銷售全國性品牌產品，我們的產品仍然具有強大的競爭力。我們通常會以自有品牌的形式提供類似產品，其價格甚至會低於或等於價格最低的線上零售商。傑夫，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Well, yes. I'd say that one other thing to remember is that the national brands would be more of our premium offering and that's what most of our professional customers prefer. And there again, with the professional customers, it's all about availability and how quick you can get it into the shop and help them turn their base.

是的。我想補充一點，全國性品牌屬於我們的高端產品，這也是我們大多數專業客戶所偏好的。同樣，對於專業客戶而言，一切都取決於供貨情況，以及你能多快把產品送到店裡，幫助他們快速週轉。

And our next question comes from Carolina Jolly from Gabelli.

下一個問題來自 Gabelli 公司的 Carolina Jolly。

Just one quick one here. It looks like you might have 2 suppliers consolidating in the near future. Do you have any thoughts on how that might affect the business, including, I guess, supplier incentive or availability to new brands?

就簡單問一個問題。看來你們的兩家供應商可能在不久的將來會合併。您認為這可能會對業務產生哪些影響？例如，供應商的激勵措施或新品牌的供應情況？

Sure. I don't know about availability to new brands, but you're speaking of Tenneco acquiring Federal-Mogul. We've had a long-term relationship with both of those companies. Both of those companies have been good suppliers for us. We've got a great relationship with Tenneco. One of the things that we like about this acquisition is there's really no competitive overlap between the 2 product offerings. They're really complementary of each other and not competing with each other. So we feel like Tenneco's leadership will be good for the overall company, and we look for good things to come from that relationship.

當然。我不了解新品牌的供應情況，但你指的是天納克收購輝門公司。我們與這兩家公司都保持著長期的合作關係。這兩家公司一直是我們的優質供應商。我們與天納克公司保持著良好的合作關係。我們喜歡這次收購的原因之一是，兩家公司的產品之間真的沒有任何競爭重疊。它們其實是互補關係，而不是競爭關係。因此，我們認為天納克的領導階層對公司整體發展有利，我們期待這種合作關係能帶來好的結果。

And our next question comes from Chris Bottiglieri from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Bottiglieri。

I have a long-term strategic question I wanted to pick your brain on. A lot of your closest peers are attempting to evolve their DC strategies using hub strategies, mega hubs, or if you want to call them cross-docking. I believe you don't currently use mega hubs. Can you tell us more about the advantages and virtues of your direct from DC strategy and why a megahub strategy would make sense for O'Reilly? And just lastly, kind of, like, what are trade offs and what does all those mean for O'Reilly's market share in commercial?

我有一個長期的策略性問題想請教您。許多同業都在嘗試透過樞紐策略、巨型樞紐，或者如果你願意的話，也可以稱之為交叉配送，來改善他們的資料中心策略。我相信你目前沒有使用大型集線器。您能否詳細介紹一下您直接從華盛頓特區發貨的策略的優勢和優點，以及為什麼巨型樞紐策略對 O'Reilly 來說是合理的？最後，我想問的是，權衡取捨是什麼？所有這些對 O'Reilly 在商業領域的市佔率意味著什麼？

Sure. I'll start this and let Jeff add to it as well. We started out really focusing on the professional side of the business where a lot of our competitors started out focusing on the retail side of the business. So since day 1, we've had a very strong supply chain, a very strong DC footprint. Since day 1, we have serviced our stores with replenishment and special order needs on a nightly basis. So the strength of inventory between a distribution center, SKU count and a hub store SKU count, the DC inventory's going to win out every time. Our DCs will have somewhere between 140 to -- or 175,000 SKUs. Our hub stores will be closer to 70,000, 80,000 SKUs and our competitors may have up to 90,000, 100,000 SKUs in some of their larger hubs. But we've kind of got that cost baked into our model. We've worked over several years to reduce our distribution cost and as a percent of sales. And we just feel strongly that having that overnight availability to inventory at a DC SKU level is a significant advantage over the hub model. Jeff, do you have anything to add?

當然。我先開始，然後讓傑夫補充。我們一開始就非常注重業務的專業方面，而我們的許多競爭對手一開始都專注於業務的零售方面。所以從一開始，我們就擁有非常強大的供應鏈和非常強大的配送中心。從第一天起，我們就每晚為門市提供補貨和特殊訂單服務。因此，在配送中心的庫存實力（SKU 數量）和樞紐商店的庫存實力（SKU 數量）之間，配送中心的庫存實力總是會勝出。我們的配送中心將擁有 140 到 175,000 個 SKU。我們的中心倉庫的 SKU 將接近 7 萬、8 萬個，而我們的競爭對手在一些較大的中心倉庫中可能擁有高達 9 萬、10 萬個 SKU。但我們已經把這部分成本考慮到我們的模型裡了。多年來，我們一直致力於降低分銷成本及其佔銷售額的百分比。我們強烈認為，能夠隔夜到貨到 DC SKU 等級的庫存，比樞紐模式具有顯著優勢。傑夫，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I'd just add that we've been delivering 5 nights a week to our stores for 60 years and back when it wasn't a fashion and people thought it wasn't the right thing to do and it's panned out pretty well for us. Obviously, when you're in the DIFM side of the business, availability is absolutely key. I mean, get that part in the shop and helping them turn their base is really how you earn the business and keep the business. And honestly, to an extent, the more SKUs you have readily available, the more times you can say yes versus no. So we've always pride ourselves in a high-level of inventory availability. There again, we kind of meet what the market bears when it comes to service levels. I mean, it could be overnight in some rural stores, but it's up to 7 or 8x a day in metro markets. It's really what the market demands to provide the service to be able to earn the business and keep the business.

是的。我還要補充一點，60年來我們一直每週五晚為門市送貨，那時候送貨還不是一種風尚，人們認為這樣做不對，但事實證明這對我們來說非常有利。顯然，在DIFM（代銷商）業務中，可用性是絕對關鍵的。我的意思是，把那部分零件拿到店裡，幫助他們週轉貨源，這才是贏得生意並留住生意的真正方法。說實話，在某種程度上，你手邊的 SKU 越多，你就能有更多機會說「是」而不是「否」。因此，我們一直以高庫存可用性而自豪。再說一遍，在服務水準方面，我們基本上是滿足了市場的需求。我的意思是，在一些鄉村商店，可能一夜之間就能賣完，但在大都市市場，一天可能要賣 7 到 8 次。實際上，這完全取決於市場對服務的要求，只有提供服務才能贏得業務並留住業務。

Over the past years, we've also added weekend service out of our distribution centers.

過去幾年，我們也增加了從配送中心發出的週末服務。

Yes. And just one last item to note. We've run a significant hub network that augments our regional DCs, so availability is critical to success in our business and we feel like we do a great job at it.

是的。最後還有一點要注意。我們經營著一個龐大的樞紐網絡，以增強我們的區域配送中心，因此可用性對我們業務的成功至關重要，我們感覺我們在這方面做得很好。

And our next question comes from Matt McClintock from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬特·麥克林托克。

I wanted to follow up on just the national brand conversation that we're talking about earlier. You have some M&A going on. You have a competitor that just put together a somewhat exclusive deal with a national brand and you're kind of seeing this in other segments of retail where 1 retailer will try to create an exclusive with a national brand try to compete more effectively with another retailer. Are we seeing like an evolution in the way that your competitors think? Or are we on the cusp of some type of new evolution in competition created by the suppliers created by these brands? And just how do you think about this over the next several years being a potential threat to your business and your dominance?

我想就我們之前討論過的全國品牌話題繼續探討一下。你們那邊正在進行一些併購活動。你有一個競爭對手剛剛與一個全國性品牌達成了某種程度上的獨家協議，你在其他零售領域也能看到類似的現象，即一家零售商試圖與一個全國性品牌建立獨家合作關係，以便更有效地與另一家零售商競爭。我們是否看到競爭對手的思維方式正在發生某種演變？或者，我們正處於由這些品牌所創造的供應商所引發的某種新的競爭格局的開端？那麼，您認為在未來幾年內，這會對您的業務和市場主導地位構成潛在威脅嗎？

It's national brands versus private label has really evolved over time. We were -- most of our business, as recently 7 or 8 years ago, was national brands. National brands, there's a competitive component. To Jeff's point, most of our national brands are our premium products and we'll have, in most cases, a good, better, best offering, at which point our national brands would be the best and we'd have one or more layers of private label under that. So we've evolved from mostly national brands to a mix, a healthy mix of private label and national brands, which allows us to compete with both brick-and-mortar and online retailers. So I think things continue to evolve. A lot of our private label brands are supplied by national brand providers. The example that you're speaking of in your example there, I think, that's a category where we have created a national brand. And some of our national brands that we own that are proprietary brands once were national brands like Precision, for example, or Murry Air Conditioning, and we own the rights to those brands and they're now our private label brands. But in the case of other categories like, battery is a good example, Super Start, and BrakeBest in brakes have become essentially, national brands. So we're happy with our strategy of having a healthy mix of good, better, best, and mixing in private label and national brands.

全國性品牌與自有品牌之間的競爭格局隨著時間的推移而發生了很大的變化。直到七、八年前，我們的大部分業務都是全國性品牌。全國性品牌之間存在競爭因素。正如傑夫所說，我們的大多數全國性品牌都是我們的高端產品，在大多數情況下，我們會提供好、更好、最好的產品，屆時我們的全國性品牌將是最好的，而我們會在其下推出一層或多層自有品牌產品。因此，我們已經從以全國性品牌為主發展成為自有品牌和全國性品牌的健康組合，這使我們能夠與實體零售商和線上零售商競爭。所以我認為事物仍在不斷發展變化。我們許多自有品牌產品都由全國性品牌供應商提供。我認為，你舉的那個例子，就是我們已經打造出一個全國性品牌的類別。我們擁有的一些全國性自有品牌，例如 Precision 或 Murry Air Conditioning，曾經也是全國性品牌，我們擁有這些品牌的所有權，現在它們是我們的自有品牌。但就其他類別而言，例如電池，Super Start 和煞車片品牌 BrakeBest 基本上已成為全國性品牌。因此，我們對目前的策略感到滿意，即合理搭配好、更好、最好的產品，並將自有品牌和全國性品牌混合搭配。

And our next question comes from Seth Basham from Wedbush Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

My question is on gross margin. Excluding LIFO in both periods, you saw your gross margin turn down year-over-year again this quarter. I just wanted to understand a little bit better if there are anything that were outside of your expectations impacting gross margin this quarter.

我的問題是關於毛利率的。如果兩個時期均不採用後進先出法（LIFO），則本季您的毛利率比去年同期再次下降。我只是想更清楚地了解一下，本季是否有任何超出您預期的因素影響了毛利率。

We have some puts and takes in gross margin. It was within our guidance. When we look at our expectations, we have a little less inventory than we usually -- in the first quarter with -- and had some cap headwinds to us, but we remain comfortable with our gross margin guide and our -- and we look at our POS margin without all the other items that go into it, we continue to be pleased with that.

我們對毛利率有一些看法和看法。這符合我們的指導原則。當我們審視我們的預期時，我們的庫存比往常略少——在第一季——並且我們遇到了一些資金方面的阻力，但我們仍然對毛利率指導感到滿意——而且當我們查看剔除所有其他因素後的 POS 利潤率時，我們對此仍然感到滿意。

Got you. And if we think bigger picture, there's been some conversation about price competition. And we've seen one of your largest competitors introduce a free overnight shipping offer for online orders over $25. Is that something that you think is material that you'll need to respond to? Or is it too a small piece of your business to matter?

抓到你了。如果我們從更宏觀的角度來看，人們已經開始討論價格競爭問題了。我們看到你們最大的競爭對手之一推出了線上訂單滿 25 美元即可享受免費隔夜送達服務的優惠。你認為這是你需要回應的內容嗎？或者，這在你業務中所佔比例太小，無關緊要？

Yes, Seth. It is a small part of our business, but we try to make sure we're competitive with our competitors in the products they offer and their programs like this. I saw something last week where one of our competitors was rolling out a test in select metro markets to provide overnight deliveries. I assume that's the one you're speaking to. What we worked on is, over time, and as a matter of fact, over the period of last quarter, we have expanded our shipping points to include all of our DCs and we'll also probably be layering on some of hub store locations. So a significant portion of U.S. households today we're able to touch overnight with UPS ground shipping. And we've got a mid-range to long-term strategy to leverage that and use that as a selling advantage online. So we may not mirror exactly what our competitors do from an approach standpoint, but we want to make sure we have a comparable service level.

是的，塞思。這只是我們業務的一小部分，但我們會努力確保我們在產品和服務方面與競爭對手保持競爭力，例如像這樣的計劃。我上週看到，我們的一個競爭對手正在部分大都市市場進行測試，提供隔夜送達服務。我猜你是在跟他說話吧。隨著時間的推移，事實上，在上個季度，我們已經擴大了出貨點，涵蓋了我們所有的配送中心，而且我們可能還會增加一些樞紐門市的位置。因此，如今我們能夠透過 UPS 陸運隔夜送達服務覆蓋美國很大一部分家庭。我們制定了中長期策略，利用這一點並將其轉化為線上銷售優勢。因此，從方法論的角度來看，我們可能不會完全複製競爭對手的做法，但我們希望確保我們提供同等水準的服務。

Got it. And lastly, Tom, housekeeping question. LIFO expectation for the year now?

知道了。最後，湯姆，問個家事的問題。現在對今年的後進先出法（LIFO）預期如何？

I'll have -- let me get -- that number is probably in the $10 million to $15 million range. Again, that -- to follow up on that, Seth, that's highly dependent on what inflationary pressure is we see.

我得——讓我查一下——這個數字大概在 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元之間。再說一次——塞思，關於這一點，很大程度上取決於我們看到的通膨壓力是多少。

We have reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Greg Henslee for closing remarks.

我們的提問時間已到。現在我將把電話交還給格雷格·亨斯利先生，請他作總結發言。

This is actually Greg Johnson. Thank you very much, Jenny. We would like to conclude our call today by thanking our entire O'Reilly Team for their continue dedication to customer service in the first quarter. I'd like to thank everyone for joining our call today, and we look forward to reporting our 2018 second quarter results in July. Thank you.

這其實是格雷格·約翰遜。非常感謝你，珍妮。今天通話的最後，我們要感謝 O'Reilly 團隊全體成員在第一季對客戶服務的持續奉獻。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議，我們期待在7月公佈2018年第二季業績。謝謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。