O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Allie, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

歡迎來到 O’Reilly Automotive, Inc.第三季財報電話會議。我叫艾莉，我將擔任您今天通話的接線生。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the call over to Tom -- Mr. Tom McFall. Mr. McFall, you may begin.

現在我將把電話交給湯姆——湯姆·麥克福爾先生。麥克福爾先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Allie. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. During today's conference call, we'll discuss our third quarter of 2017 results and our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2017. After our prepared comments, we will host a question-and-answer period.

謝謝你，艾莉。各位早安，感謝各位的收看。在今天的電話會議上，我們將討論我們 2017 年第三季的業績以及我們對 2017 年第四季的展望。在我們發表完準備好的評論後，我們將安排問答環節。

Before we begin this morning, I'd like to remind everyone that our comments today contain forward-looking statements, and we intend to be covered by and we claim the protection under the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as estimate, may, could, will, believe, expect, would, consider, should, anticipate, project, plan, intend or similar words.

在今天早上開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述，我們打算受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中關於前瞻性陳述的安全港條款的保護，並聲稱受到該條款的保護。你可以透過諸如估計、可能、可以、將、相信、預期、會、考慮、應該、預計、預測、計劃、打算或類似詞語等前瞻性詞語來識別這些陳述。

The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors described in the company's latest annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 and other recent SEC filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call.

由於公司截至 2016 年 12 月 31 日的最新年度報告（表格 10-K）和其他最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的幾個重要因素，公司的實際業績可能與任何前瞻性聲明有重大差異。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

At this time, I'd like to introduce Greg Henslee.

在此，我謹向大家介紹格雷格‧亨斯利。

Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the O’Reilly Auto Parts Third Quarter Conference Call. Participating on the call with me this morning are our co-presidents, Greg Johnson and Jeff Shaw, as well as Tom McFall, our Chief Financial Officer. David O’Reilly, our Executive Chairman, is also present.

謝謝你，湯姆。各位早安，歡迎參加歐萊利汽車配件公司第三季電話會議。今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的有我們的聯合總裁格雷格·約翰遜和傑夫·肖，以及我們的財務長湯姆·麥克福爾。我們的執行主席大衛·奧萊利也出席了活動。

I'd like to begin our call today by thanking Team O'Reilly for their continued dedication to providing consistently excellent service to our customers. This unwavering commitment to going above and beyond to meeting our customers’ needs or was on full display during the third quarter in our team's response to Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma. Jeff will touch on our team's effort in more detail in a few minutes, but I want to thank each member of Team O'Reilly for their hard work and commitment they showed to provide great service to our customers during the recovery from these storms.

今天，我首先要感謝奧萊利團隊一直以來對為客戶提供始終如一的優質服務的奉獻精神。我們始終不遺餘力地滿足客戶的需求，這種精神在第三季度我們團隊應對颶風哈維和颶風艾爾瑪的行動中得到了充分體現。Jeff 將在幾分鐘後更詳細地介紹我們團隊的努力，但我還是要感謝 O'Reilly 團隊的每一位成員，感謝他們在風暴過後恢復期間為我們的客戶提供優質服務所付出的辛勤努力和奉獻精神。

We did see some headwind during the quarter as a result of store closures caused by the storms. However, thanks to our team's amazing commitment to getting their stores back open as soon as possible, we estimate we were able to make up most of the lost volume prior to the end of the quarter, and more importantly, we were able to generate incredible goodwill with our customers that will benefit us for years to come.

本季我們確實遇到了一些不利因素，因為暴風雨導致部分門市關閉。然而，由於我們的團隊盡心盡力盡快讓門市重新開業，我們估計在季度末之前已經彌補了大部分損失的銷量，更重要的是，我們贏得了客戶的極大好感，這將使我們在未來幾年受益匪淺。

Our comparable store sales results for the third quarter were in line with the guidance expectations we established on last quarter's call, as we saw a continuation of the business trends we experienced in the first half of the year. Clearly, our results this year have been below our robust long-term track record as a result of challenging market conditions in our industry, driven by several factors I discussed in detail on our last conference call. These include the impact of 2 consecutive mild winters coupled with a mild summer in 2017, the impact to the addressable vehicle population from depressed new vehicle sales totals during the period from 2008 to 2011 and the significant economic pressure and uncertainty faced by many of our customers. None of these factors reflect a structural shift in the dynamics of our industry, and we remain very confident in the long-term outlook for the automotive aftermarket.

第三季同店銷售業績符合我們在上季電話會議上設定的預期，因為我們看到了今年上半年業務趨勢的延續。顯然，由於行業市場環境充滿挑戰，我們今年的業績低於我們強勁的長期業績記錄，而造成這種情況的因素有很多，我在上次電話會議上詳細討論過。這些因素包括：2017 年連續兩個暖冬加上一個暖夏的影響；2008 年至 2011 年期間新車銷售總量低迷對目標車輛數量的影響；以及我們許多客戶面臨的巨大經濟壓力和不確定性。這些因素均未反映出我們產業動態的結構性轉變，我們對汽車售後市場的長期前景仍充滿信心。

We operate in a very stable industry and expect to continue to see steady increases in total miles driven, along with growth in the total vehicle population in the U.S., and will continue to benefit as the high-quality vehicle engineering and manufacturing supports demand for parts late into a vehicle's life cycle. As we look forward to the fourth quarter and 2018, we remain diligently focused on executing our proven business model and consistently providing excellent service to our valued customers and fully expect to continue to lead our industry and generate robust profitable growth. Our confidence in our business is reflected in our continued reinvestment in new store growth. Jeff will provide his normal updates in a few minutes, but I'll steal some of his thunder to report to you that we are extremely proud to open our 5,000th store last week in Norwich, Connecticut. Our outstanding track record of extremely successful organic growth is the result of an amazing amount of hard work by so many of our team members throughout our history, and we continue to be very excited about our future growth prospects.

我們身處一個非常穩定的行業，預計隨著美國汽車保有量的增長，總行駛里程將繼續穩步增長，並且隨著高品質的汽車工程和製造在汽車生命週期後期對零部件的需求不斷增長，我們將繼續受益。展望第四季和 2018 年，我們將繼續努力執行我們行之有效的商業模式，持續為我們尊貴的客戶提供卓越的服務，並完全有信心繼續引領行業，實現強勁的盈利增長。我們對自身業務的信心體現在我們持續對新店擴張的再投資上。Jeff 將在幾分鐘後提供他通常的最新消息，但我將搶先向大家報告，我們非常自豪地宣布，上週我們在康乃狄克州諾維奇開設了第 5000 家門市。我們卓越的有機成長記錄，得益於我們眾多團隊成員在公司發展歷程中付出的大量辛勤努力，我們對未來的成長前景充滿信心。

I'll now turn the call over to Greg Johnson for some more detailed comments.

現在我將把電話交給格雷格·約翰遜，請他做一些更詳細的評論。

Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to begin my comments today by thanking our team for their continued commitment to outstanding customer service and their hard work in the third quarter, which allowed us to generate respectable results in a tough environment. Team O'Reilly has consistently demonstrated that we will respond to market challenges by working even harder to take care of our customers, and that commitment to our customers has us well positioned to profitably gain market share moving forward.

謝謝你，格雷格。各位早安。今天，我首先要感謝我們的團隊，感謝他們一直以來對卓越客戶服務的承諾，以及他們在第三季度付出的辛勤努力，正是他們的努力，才使我們能夠在艱難的環境下取得令人滿意的成績。奧萊利團隊一直以來都展現出，我們將透過更加努力地服務客戶來應對市場挑戰，而我們對客戶的這種承諾使我們處於有利地位，能夠在未來盈利地獲得市場份額。

I would now like to provide some additional color on the third quarter comparable store sales results and the fourth quarter guidance. Our results were within the expectations as we began the quarter on a similar trend line to the results we posted in the second quarter. As Greg previously mentioned, our month-to-month cadence for the third quarter was impacted by some headwind in the middle of the quarter as a result of store closures caused by the hurricanes, but we estimate we were able to make up for the lost volume in the affected regions as we saw demand increase for recovery-related activities. Excluding the timing impact of the hurricanes, our results for the quarter were relatively steady, with September finishing as the strongest month of the quarter.

現在我想就第三季同店銷售業績和第四季業績指引做一些補充說明。我們的業績符合預期，本季初的業績趨勢與第二季的業績趨勢相似。正如 Greg 之前提到的，由於颶風導致門市關閉，我們第三季度的月度節奏在季度中期受到了一些不利因素的影響，但我們估計，隨著與災後重建相關的活動需求增加，我們能夠彌補受影響地區損失的銷售。撇開颶風帶來的時間影響不談，我們本季的業績相對穩定，其中 9 月是本季業績最好的一個月。

On a category basis, our results in the third quarter were very similar to what we saw in the second quarter. We experienced continued softness in hot weather categories such as cooling, HVAC and refrigerants, particularly in the Central and Southern U.S., where mild summer conditions persisted throughout the quarter.

從各個類別來看，我們第三季的業績與第二季的業績非常相似。我們在製冷、暖通空調和冷媒等炎熱天氣類別中持續感受到疲軟，尤其是在美國中部和南部地區，這些地區整個季度都持續著溫和的夏季氣候。

In addition to the pressure in hot weather categories, we saw continued headwinds in other weather-related categories, such as ride control and driveline, which did not experience the typical wear and tear this past winter in the absence of harsh weather, which drives the damage for these categories. While it is difficult to quantify the specific impact of any particular market factor has on our business over short periods of time, it is very clear to us that weather has created a short-term headwind to our business.

除了高溫天氣類別的壓力之外，我們還看到其他與天氣相關的類別（如行駛控制和傳動系統）持續面臨不利因素，由於沒有惡劣天氣，這些類別在剛剛過去的冬天並沒有經歷典型的磨損，而惡劣天氣正是造成這些類別損壞的原因。雖然很難量化任何特定市場因素在短期內對我們業務的具體影響，但我們非常清楚，天氣為我們的業務帶來了短期不利影響。

Our comparable store sales increase was driven by increases in average ticket size offset by pressures on ticket count for both DIY and professional customers. Our comparable store sales growth was evenly balanced between DIY and professional customers for the third quarter, and our comp results for the first 9 months were similarly balanced. We believe the parity on both sides of the business speaks to the impact of overall demand for auto parts being soft rather than isolated pressure resulting from a channel shift in the industry.

同店銷售額的成長主要得益於平均客單價的提高，但DIY客戶和專業客戶的客單價均有所下降，抵銷了客單價上漲帶來的損失。第三季度，我們的同店銷售成長在DIY客戶和專業客戶之間保持平衡，前9個月的同店銷售業績也同樣保持平衡。我們認為，業務雙方的平衡反映了汽車零件整體需求疲軟的影響，而不是產業通路轉變帶來的孤立壓力。

As we discussed last quarter, our tight connection to our professional customers gives us deep insight into the drivers of our comparable store sales results since we can identify changes in the demand from prior periods on a customer-by-customer basis. We continue to receive feedback that the sluggish demand we've seen in the first 9 months of 2017 is being felt across the industry as our professional customers report similar sluggishness in their business.

正如我們上個季度所討論的，我們與專業客戶的緊密聯繫使我們能夠深入了解同店銷售業績的驅動因素，因為我們可以逐個客戶地識別出與前期相比的需求變化。我們不斷收到回饋，2017 年前 9 個月出現的疲軟需求正在整個產業蔓延，我們的專業客戶也反映他們的業務同樣疲軟。

I would now like to spend a few minutes discussing the comparable store sales guidance we provided in yesterday's press release. As noted, we have established our fourth quarter guidance range at flat to 2%. While this range is lower than the guidance we provided for our third quarter, it does not reflect an expectation of a negative shift in the trend of our business. We finished the third quarter on a good pace, with September being the best month of the quarter, and that better pace has continued into October. One has to consider that we have our toughest fourth quarter comparisons in December, and that, coupled with the impact of the calendar shift in the fourth quarter, led us to stepping up our comp sales guidance down to flat to 2%.

現在我想花幾分鐘時間討論我們在昨天的新聞稿中提供的同店銷售預期。如前所述，我們已將第四季業績預期範圍設定為持平至 2%。雖然這一範圍低於我們對第三季的預期，但這並不反映出我們預期業務趨勢將出現負面轉變。第三季末我們保持了良好的發展勢頭，其中9月份是本季表現最好的一個月，而且這種良好的發展勢頭一直延續到了10月份。必須考慮到，12 月是第四季業績比較最艱難的時期，再加上第四季日曆變化的影響，導致我們將同店銷售額預期下調至持平或 2%。

This calendar headwind resulted from an additional Sunday in 2017 versus the fourth quarter of 2016 as well as the timing of the Christmas holiday, which falls on a Monday this year versus Sunday last year. Both of these calendar shifts create a headwind for us since most professional shops are closed on Sunday, and it represents our lightest volume day of the week. Based on historical experience, we expect the calendar shifts to represent a combined headwind of 50 to 100 basis points of comparable store sales growth in the quarter. As I mentioned, we have been reasonably pleased with the business thus far in the quarter, but remain cautious given the volatility we place -- we face in the fourth quarter due to the variability of the holiday shopping season and the timing of winter weather. This is especially true this year since we face difficult comparisons at the end of the quarter as we compare to strong business in December of 2016, when we benefited from the only harsh weather we saw last winter.

2017 年第四季比 2016 年第四季多了一個星期日，加上聖誕節假期時間的變化（今年是星期一，而去年是星期日），造成了這種日曆上的不利影響。這兩個日曆變化都給我們帶來了不利影響，因為大多數專業商店週日都關門，而周日是我們一周中業務量最少的一天。根據歷史經驗，我們預期日曆變更將對本季同店銷售成長造成 50 至 100 個基點的不利影響。正如我之前提到的，我們對本季度迄今為止的業務表現還算滿意，但考慮到第四季度由於假日購物季的不確定性和冬季天氣的到來時間而面臨的波動性，我們仍然保持謹慎。今年尤其如此，因為在季度末，我們將面臨艱難的比較，因為我們要與 2016 年 12 月強勁的業務進行比較，當時我們受益於去年冬天唯一一次惡劣天氣。

Taking these factors into account, our guidance range for the fourth quarter is consistent with our actual results in the first 9 months of the year on a 2- and 3-year stacked basis. Just to reiterate, the midpoint of our fourth quarter comp guidance of 1% is below our year-to-date results of 1.5% because of the calendar shift headwinds, and we continue to expect to see a continuation of the underlying business trends. We are leaving our full year guidance unchanged at 1% to 2% based on our actual performance for the first 9 months of 2017 and our expectations for the fourth quarter.

考慮到這些因素，我們對第四季的業績指引範圍與我們今年前 9 個月的實際業績（以 2 年和 3 年的疊加計算）是一致的。再次重申，由於日曆年調整帶來的不利影響，我們第四季同店銷售額成長預期中位數為 1%，低於年初至今的 1.5%，但我們仍預期基本業務趨勢將持續維持。根據 2017 年前 9 個月的實際業績以及對第四季度的預期，我們維持全年業績預期不變，仍為 1% 至 2%。

Looking at the broader automotive aftermarket, we have benefited from solid macroeconomic trends and the core underlying drivers of business in our industry. Total miles driven in the U.S. is up 1.5% year-to-date through July, and gas prices continue to remain stable at low historical levels. Overall employment levels and the economy continue to be solid, and the corresponding stable commuter mile underpins support for demand in our industry.

從更廣泛的汽車售後市場來看，我們受益於穩健的宏觀經濟趨勢和我們行業的核心潛在業務驅動因素。截至7月份，美國車輛行駛總里程較年初增長1.5%，汽油價格繼續保持在歷史低點並保持穩定。整體就業水準和經濟狀況依​​然穩健，相應的通勤里程也保持穩定，這為我們行業的需求提供了支撐。

We feel our industry is facing normal cyclical short-term pressures, but it is very stable, and healthy condition will return to the long-term growth rates in the industry as the industry has historically experienced. More importantly, we remain very confident our team will continue to take share and generate results which outperform the overall market.

我們認為，我們所在的行業正面臨正常的周期性短期壓力，但行業非常穩定，並且會恢復到健康狀態，正如該行業歷史上所經歷的那樣，長期增長率將會恢復到健康水平。更重要的是，我們仍然非常有信心，我們的團隊將繼續擴大市場份額，並取得優於整體市場的業績。

I would now like to discuss our gross margin results for the third quarter and our updated guidance for the full year. Our third quarter gross margin of 52.6% came in at the bottom end of our guidance expectation as we saw continued pressure to our gross margins from deleverage of fixed costs on low sales volumes as well as other factors Tom will discuss in more detail.

現在我想討論一下我們第三季的毛利率業績以及我們更新後的全年業績預期。由於銷售量低導致固定成本槓桿化，毛利率持續承壓，湯姆將詳細討論其他因素，因此我們第三季的毛利率為 52.6%，處於預期範圍的下限。

We expect sequential margins will improve in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter as we benefit from a more favorable product mix. However, we expect continued pressure for the fourth quarter from deleverage on fixed costs to result in a full year gross margin at the bottom end of our previously issued guidance. As a result, we are adjusting our full year gross margin to lower the top end of the range and now expect our full year gross margin to be within a range of 52.5% to 52.7% versus our previous range of 52.5% to 52.9%. We continue to see an absence of broad-based pressure to pricing in our industry, and we see no significant inflation -- and we assume no significant inflation in both our comparable store sales and gross margin guidance.

我們預計，由於產品組合更有利，第四季的環比利潤率將比第三季有所提高。然而，我們預計第四季度固定成本去槓桿化帶來的持續壓力將導致全年毛利率處於我們先前發布的預期範圍的下限。因此，我們將調整全年毛利率預期，降低預期範圍的上限，現在預計全年毛利率將在 52.5% 至 52.7% 之間，而此前的預期範圍為 52.5% 至 52.9%。我們繼續看到，我們所在的行業沒有普遍的價格壓力，也沒有看到明顯的通貨膨脹——因此，我們預計同店銷售額和毛利率都不會出現明顯的通貨膨脹。

For the third quarter, we generated earnings per share of $3.22, which includes a $0.02 benefit from the change in accounting related to the tax benefits from stock option gains and is at the top of our previously guided EPS range for the third quarter. While our third quarter EPS performance is below the historical growth rates we have generated over the past several years as a result of the tough sales environment and corresponding leverage pressures on our business, it still represents a 10% increase over the prior year after adjusting for the accounting change. Our team's ability to provide excellent customer service, which drives long-term value for the company, while still producing solid financial results is a testament to their hard work and dedication.

第三季度，我們每股收益為 3.22 美元，其中包括因股票期權收益稅收優惠相關的會計變更而獲得的 0.02 美元收益，並且達到了我們之前對第三季度每股收益預期範圍的上限。雖然由於銷售環境嚴峻以及業務面臨的相應槓桿壓力，我們第三季的每股盈餘表現低於過去幾年的歷史成長率，但在調整會計變更後，仍比去年成長了 10%。我們團隊能夠提供卓越的客戶服務，為公司創造長期價值，同時也能取得穩健的財務業績，證明了他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

Moving on to the fourth quarter. We are establishing a guidance range of $2.65 to $2.75 and increasing the full year guidance to a range of $11.82 to $11.92. Our full year guidance includes the previously discussed positive benefits realized in the first 9 months of the year from the change in accounting for taxes as well as the shares repurchased through today's call, but neither the fourth quarter nor the full year guidance includes any additional benefit related to the accounting change for taxes or additional share repurchases.

進入第四節。我們設定了每股收益預期區間為 2.65 美元至 2.75 美元，並將全年預期區間提高至 11.82 美元至 11.92 美元。我們的全年業績指引包括先前討論過的，由於稅務會計處理方式的改變，今年前 9 個月實現的積極收益，以及透過今天的電話會議回購的股票，但第四季度和全年業績指引均不包括與稅務會計處理方式的改變或額外股票回購相關的任何額外收益。

Before I turn the call over to Jeff, I would just like to echo Greg's comments and reiterate our confidence in the strength and fundamental drivers of our industry and our team's ability to successfully execute our business plan, drive profitable growth and generate exceptional returns for our shareholders. Our past successes and opportunities for the future are driven by the excellent experience we provide to our customers, which is the direct result of the quality of our professional parts people. This exceptional service provides a tremendous value for our customers and is extremely difficult to replicate.

在將電話交給傑夫之前，我想重申格雷格的觀點，並再次強調我們對行業的實力和基本驅動因素以及我們團隊成功執行業務計劃、推動盈利增長並為股東創造卓越回報的能力充滿信心。我們過去的成功和未來的機會都源自於我們為客戶提供的卓越體驗，而這又直接得益於我們專業零件人員的素質。這項卓越的服務為我們的客戶帶來了巨大的價值，而且極難複製。

I'll now turn the call over to Jeff Shaw. Jeff?

現在我將把電話交給傑夫·肖。傑夫？

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to begin my comments today by thanking our team for their relentless commitment to excellent customer service and their continued hard work every day to out-service and [out-hustle] our competition. Team O'Reilly's dedication was especially evident in those regions of our company impacted by hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and I want to provide a little color on the impact of these storms and, more importantly, on the tremendous efforts of our team to overcome significant challenges and provide outstanding customer service.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。今天，我首先要感謝我們的團隊，感謝他們始終如一地致力於提供卓越的客戶服務，並感謝他們每天的辛勤工作，在服務和競爭中超越我們的競爭對手。奧萊利團隊的奉獻精神在公司受颶風哈維和艾爾瑪影響的地區尤為明顯，我想就這些風暴的影響以及更重要的是，我們的團隊為克服重大挑戰和提供卓越的客戶服務所付出的巨大努力，提供一些細節。

In total, we had approximately 450 stores impacted by the storms, with the closures concentrated over the 3- to 4-day time period when each storm made landfall, though the majority of the impacted stores were closed for less than 2 full days. In addition, our distribution centers in Houston, Texas, and Lakeland, Florida, were also impacted for a short period of time during the storms. While we sustained some damage as a result of the storms, and we'll continue to evaluate the total cost of the storms, we did not see a material headwind from storm-related losses in the third quarter, and we don't expect for these costs to be material going forward.

總共約有 450 家門市受到風暴影響，停業時間集中在每次風暴登陸後的 3 至 4 天內，但大多數受影響的門市停業時間不到 2 天。此外，我們在德州休士頓和佛羅裡達州萊克蘭的配送中心也在風暴期間受到了短暫的影響。雖然風暴對我們造成了一些損失，我們將繼續評估風暴造成的總損失，但第三季風暴造成的損失並未對我們造成實質不利影響，我們預計未來這些損失也不會造成重大影響。

As both Greg and Greg previously discussed, the headwind from store closures during the worst of the storms we'd estimate was offset in the quarter by the incremental sales volumes we captured upon reopening the stores in the affected markets. Our ability to recover quickly from disasters such as these hurricanes isn't a new phenomenon for our company, and our teams have long prided themselves in being among the first businesses to reopen and be there for our customers after a disaster. Getting an auto part stores up and running after events like the ones we faced in the third quarter requires a tremendous amount of hard work and dedication by our team, including everything from removing water and damaged product from the affected stores to working with limited lighting and no air-conditioning; writing manual tickets in the absence of electricity or communication; unloading trailer loads of generators, gas cans and other post-hurricane supplies; and the list goes on and on. While this certainly provides a benefit as we begin to make up for the lost days of sales, the real benefit we generate is the goodwill we create with our customers by being there to provide the supplies and repair parts necessary to help them recover from the storms. This goodwill is the direct result of the hard work and sacrifice shown by our store and DC teams to overcome these challenges and take care of our customers, despite many of them also facing personal impact from these storms.

正如 Greg 和 Greg 之前討論的那樣，我們估計，在風暴最嚴重的時候，商店關閉帶來的不利影響，在本季度被我們在受影響市場重新開放商店後獲得的增量銷售量所抵消。我們公司能夠迅速從颶風等災害中恢復過來，這並不是什麼新鮮事，我們的團隊一直以來都以在災後率先重新開業並為客戶提供服務而感到自豪。在經歷了像第三季度那樣的災難之後，要讓汽車配件商店恢復運營，需要我們團隊付出巨大的努力和奉獻精神，包括從受影響的商店中清除積水和損壞的產品，在光線不足、沒有空調的情況下工作；在沒有電力或通訊的情況下手動填寫小票；卸載發電機、汽油桶和其他颶風裝滿後的物資；等等。雖然這確實能幫助我們彌補損失的銷售時間，但我們真正獲得的益處是，透過提供必要的物資和維修零件來幫助客戶從風暴中恢復過來，從而與客戶建立良好的關係。這種善意直接源於我們門市和配送中心團隊為克服這些挑戰、照顧我們的客戶所付出的辛勤努力和犧牲，儘管他們中的許多人也受到了這些風暴的個人影響。

We remain committed to contributing our resources in helping those affected by the hurricanes, and we're extremely grateful for the amazing contributions of Team O'Reilly during the storms.

我們將繼續致力於貢獻我們的資源，幫助那些受颶風影響的人們，並且我們非常感謝奧萊利團隊在風暴期間做出的巨大貢獻。

Now I'd like to spend a little time talking about our SG&A expense for the third quarter. Our SG&A was 32.8% of sales, which represents a 32-basis-point increase over the third quarter of 2016. As we saw in the second quarter, the deleverage of our SG&A spend was the direct result of the top line pressure to our comparable store sales results. On a dollar growth basis, we were pleased with the strong expense control management demonstrated by our teams, as average per store SG&A expense in the third quarter increased by 50 basis points as compared to the same period last year. This disciplined focus on expense control by our store and distribution center teams is the result of active daily management in each store, DC and office to ensure that every dollar we spend is directed toward improving the service levels we provide to our customers.

現在我想花點時間談談我們第三季的銷售、管理及行政費用。我們的銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的 32.8%，比 2016 年第三季成長了 32 個基點。正如我們在第二季所看到的，銷售、一般及行政費用的減少是由於同店銷售業績面臨營收壓力而直接導致的。以美元成長計算，我們對團隊展現出的強勁的費用控制管理感到滿意，因為第三季每家門市的平均銷售、一般及行政費用比去年同期成長了 50 個基點。我們門市和配送中心團隊對費用控制的嚴格把控，源自於我們在每個門市、配送中心和辦公室的日常積極管理，以確保我們花的每一分錢都用於提高我們為客戶提供的服務水準。

Our SG&A spend is deliberate, and the adjustments we've made to respond to the current sales environment during the course of 2017 have been measured and gradual. We execute our business model with the expectation that our high level of customer service will drive robust sales growth over the long term, and we will not overreact to make dramatic adjustments that would negatively impact our customer service levels. As a result, we will continue to see some deleverage pressure at low single-digit comps, but the strong expense control focus of our team has significantly limited this pressure and enabled us to generate a third quarter operating profit percentage of 19.7%, which continues to be one of the best results in all of retail.

我們的銷售、一般及行政費用支出是經過深思熟慮的，我們在 2017 年期間為應對當前的銷售環境而做出的調整是經過深思熟慮和循序漸進的。我們秉持著這樣的商業理念來執行我們的商業模式：我們高水準的客戶服務將推動長期強勁的銷售成長，我們不會反應過度，做出可能對客戶服務水準產生負面影響的重大調整。因此，我們將繼續看到一些去槓桿化壓力，同店銷售額將保持在個位數低位，但我們團隊對費用控制的重視已顯著限制了這種壓力，並使我們能夠實現第三季度 19.7% 的營業利潤率，這仍然是零售業所有公司中最好的業績之一。

Based on our strong expense control in the third quarter and our expected spend for the remainder of the year, we now expect that our average per store SG&A increase for the full year of 2017 will be in the range of 1% to 1.5% over our previous stated range of 1.5% to 2%.

根據我們第三季的強有力費用控制以及今年剩餘時間的預期支出，我們現在預計 2017 年全年每家門市的平均銷售、一般及行政費用增長將在之前公佈的 1.5% 至 2% 的範圍內增加 1% 至 1.5%。

Before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing our store growth in the first 9 months of the year and our plans moving forward. In the third quarter, we successfully opened 50 net new stores, bringing our year-to-date total to 155 net new stores spread across the country in 34 different states. During the first quarter -- the fourth quarter, we'll achieve our 2017 new store growth target of 190 stores, which includes, as Greg discussed earlier, the opening of our 5,000th store last week. This is an incredible achievement for our company, and we remain as confident as ever in our ability to execute our growth strategy. Our excitement about our future new store growth opportunities is the result of the strong performance of our new stores, which continue to exceed both our historical averages and our internal expectations even against a more challenging backdrop for the industry.

在將電話交給湯姆之前，我想花幾分鐘時間討論我們門市在今年前 9 個月的成長情況以及我們未來的計劃。第三季度，我們成功淨增 50 家門市，使今年迄今的淨增門店總數達到 155 家，遍布全國 34 個不同的州。在第一季至第四季期間，我們將實現 2017 年新增 190 家門市的目標，其中包括 Greg 先前討論過的上週開幕的第 5000 家門市。這對我們公司來說是一項了不起的成就，我們對執行成長策略的能力仍然充滿信心。我們對未來新店成長機會的興奮之情源於我們新店的強勁表現，即使在行業面臨更具挑戰性的背景下，我們的新店業績也持續超越歷史平均水平和內部預期。

As we look forward to 2018, we expect another strong year of new store expansion and are establishing a store growth target of 200 net new stores. I'd like to conclude my comments today by again thanking our team for their continued dedication to providing the best customer service in our industry. Our teams have responded to the market conditions we faced throughout 2017 by working that much harder to take care of our customers, and that relentless commitment is the key ingredient as we move forward and continue to take market share.

展望 2018 年，我們預期新店擴張將再創佳績，並制定了淨增 200 家門市的成長目標。今天，我謹以此結束我的發言，再次感謝我們的團隊一直以來致力於提供業界最佳的客戶服務。面對 2017 年的市場環境，我們的團隊更加努力地為客戶服務，這種堅持不懈的承諾是我們前進並繼續擴大市場份額的關鍵因素。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

現在，我把電話交給湯姆。

Thanks, Jeff. Now we'll take a closer look at our quarterly results and updated guidance for the remainder of 2017. For the quarter, sales increased $119 million, comprised of a $57 million increase in comp store sales, a $64 million increase in non-comp store sales, a $1 million decrease in non-comp non-store sales and a $1 million decrease from closed stores. For 2017, we expect our total revenues to be $8.9 billion to $9 billion.

謝謝你，傑夫。現在我們將仔細看看我們的季度業績以及 2017 年剩餘時間的最新指引。本季銷售額成長 1.19 億美元，其中同店銷售額成長 5,700 萬美元，非同店銷售額成長 6,400 萬美元，非同店非門市銷售額減少 100 萬美元，以及門市關閉導致銷售額減少 100 萬美元。我們預計 2017 年的總營收將達到 89 億至 90 億美元。

For the quarter, gross margin was 52.6% of sales, which was a 10 basis point deleverage versus the last year. The reduced gross margin percentage was the result of product mix, the loss of leverage on fixed costs and higher shrink, offset in part by a lower LIFO charge. The LIFO impact resulting from continued incremental acquisition cost reductions, was a headwind of $3 million in the third quarter of 2017 versus $10 million in the same period of 2016. We're anticipating the headwind from LIFO in the fourth quarter will be similar to the third quarter.

本季毛利率為銷售額的 52.6%，比去年同期下降了 10 個基點。毛利率下降是由於產品組合變化、固定成本槓桿作用減弱以及損耗增加所致，但部分被較低的後進先出費用所抵消。由於持續的增量收購成本降低，後進先出法（LIFO）的影響在 2017 年第三季造成了 300 萬美元的不利影響，而 2016 年同期則造成了 1,000 萬美元的不利影響。我們預計第四季後進先出法帶來的不利影響將與第三季類似。

For the quarter, our tax rate was 35.5% of pretax income, which was better than the 36.4% we anticipated. 1/3 of the positive variance was due to better-than-anticipated results on the totaling of certain tax periods. As a reminder, the third quarter rate is typically lower than the remainder of the year due to the totaling of open tax periods. The remaining 2/3 was due to the required accounting change for the tax benefit relating to share-based compensation. For the fourth quarter, our tax rate will be approximately 37.3% of pretax income before any benefit we may receive relating to the accounting change for share-based compensation.

本季度，我們的稅率為稅前收入的 35.5%，優於我們預期的 36.4%。1/3 的正方差是由於某些稅期的總結果比預期好。提醒一下，由於第三季需要匯總未結稅期，因此該季度稅率通常低於其他季度。剩餘的 2/3 是由於與股份支付相關的稅務優惠所需的會計變更所致。第四季度，我們的稅率約為稅前收入的 37.3%，不包括任何我們可能因股份支付會計變更而獲得的收益。

Now we'll move on to free cash flow and the components that drove our results in the quarter and our guidance expectations for the full year of 2017. Free cash flow for the first 9 months of 2017 was $704 million, which was a $108 million decrease from the prior year, driven by a smaller decrease in our net inventory investment than in the prior year partially offset by higher income. For the full year, we're maintaining our free cash flow guidance of $830 million to $880 million. Inventory per store at the end of the quarter was $600,000, which was a 4% increase from the end of 2016, in line with our expectations for normal seasonal fluctuations. For the full year, we continue to expect inventory per store to grow approximately 1 to -- excuse me, 1.5% to 2%. Our ongoing goal is to ensure we grow per-store inventory at a lower rate than the comparable store sales growth we generate. And while we now project these growth rates will be similar for 2017, we remain confident in our effective deployment of inventory.

現在我們將討論自由現金流以及推動本季業績的各項因素，並展望 2017 年全年的業績預期。2017 年前 9 個月的自由現金流為 7.04 億美元，比前一年減少了 1.08 億美元，這主要是由於淨庫存投資的降幅小於上年，但部分被更高的收入所抵消。我們對全年的自由現金流預期維持在 8.3 億美元至 8.8 億美元之間。本季末每家門市的庫存為 60 萬美元，比 2016 年底成長了 4%，符合我們對正常季節性波動的預期。全年來看，我們仍然預計每家門市的庫存將成長約 1% 到 1.5% 到 2%。我們始終致力於確保單店庫存成長速度低於同店銷售成長速度。雖然我們現在預計 2017 年的成長率將與此類似，但我們仍然對我們有效部署庫存充滿信心。

Our AP-to-inventory ratio finished the third quarter at 106%, which was where we ended 2016, and we anticipate the end of 2017 will be a similar rate at 106%. Finally, capital expenditures for the first 9 months of the year were $348 million, which was down slightly from the same period of 2016 and in line with our expectations. We continue to forecast CapEx at $470 million to $500 million for the full year of 2017.

第三季末，我們的應付帳款與庫存比率為 106%，與 2016 年末的比率相同，我們預計 2017 年末的比率也將維持在 106% 左右。最後，今年前 9 個月的資本支出為 3.48 億美元，略低於 2016 年同期水平，符合我們的預期。我們繼續預測 2017 年全年資本支出為 4.7 億美元至 5 億美元。

Moving on to debt. We finished the third quarter with an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.08x as compared to our ratio of 1.63x at the end of 2016. The increase in our leverage ratio reflects the $750 million 10-year bonds we issued in August and incremental borrowings on our $1.2 billion unsecured revolving credit facility. Our increased borrowings moved us into our targeted ratio of 2x to 2.25x. We continue to execute our share repurchase program, and year-to-date through this call, we have repurchased 8.3 million shares at an average share price of $234.51 for a total investment of $1.95 billion.

接下來談談債務問題。第三季末，我們調整後的負債與 EBITDA 比率為 2.08 倍，而 2016 年底的比率為 1.63 倍。我們的槓桿率上升反映了我們在 8 月發行的 7.5 億美元 10 年期債券以及我們 12 億美元無擔保循環信貸額度的新增借款。我們增加的借款使我們達到了 2 倍至 2.25 倍的目標比率。我們繼續執行股票回購計劃，截至本次電話會議召開之時，今年以來我們已以平均每股 234.51 美元的價格回購了 830 萬股股票，總投資額達 19.5 億美元。

During the third quarter, we repurchased 2.7 million shares at an average price of $200.70. We remain very confident that the average repurchase price is supported by expected discounted future cash flows of our business and we continue to view our buyback program as an effective means of returning available cash to our shareholders.

第三季度，我們以平均每股 200.70 美元的價格回購了 270 萬股股票。我們仍然非常有信心，平均回購價格能夠得到我們業務預期未來現金流折現的支持，我們繼續將回購​​計劃視為向股東返還可用現金的有效手段。

Finally, before I open up our call for questions, I'd like to thank the entire O'Reilly team for their continued dedication to the company's long-term success.

最後，在正式開始提問環節之前，我要感謝 O'Reilly 團隊全體成員為公司的長期成功所做的持續貢獻。

This concludes our prepared comments. And at this time, I'd like to ask Allie, the operator, to return to the line, and we'll be happy to answer your questions.

我們的發言到此結束。此時，我想請接線生艾莉回到電話線，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Michael Lasser from UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可·拉塞爾。

Greg, are you seeing any signs or any evidence that the industry is becoming more promotional or pricing pressure is becoming an issue? In light of your gross margin performance in the quarter, I think that's becoming a question mark for the industry at this point.

格雷格，你有沒有看到任何跡像或證據表明，這個行業正變得越來越注重促銷或價格壓力，這正在成為一個問題？鑑於貴公司本季的毛利率表現，我認為這已經成為整個產業的問號。

Okay. Well, thanks, Michael. I -- what I would say is that anytime our industry has a year where demand isn't quite as great as it was the prior year, for a prior period or whatever, we have primarily regional independent -- I call them undercover warehouses, that do literally everything they can to hang on to and grow professional business. So we have those kinds of things happening regionally, but there's nothing new. That happens -- you see it more during times of lower industry sales growth than you do in times of higher industry sales growth, but it's nothing new. But I would add to that, that we've seen nothing across the industry that's changed the way that we compete on price and would speculate that there really has been no material change among our competitors, the method by which they go to market relative to price, other than what we've read about one of our competitors who is considering going to a zone-pricing strategy, which all of us, except for them evidently, currently deploy, and we'll just have to see what effect that has. But I guess my comment would be is there's nothing new on the pricing front for us.

好的。謝謝你，麥可。我想說的是，每當我們這個行業的需求不如前一年或前一段時間那麼旺盛時，我們主要依靠區域性的獨立倉庫——我稱它們為“隱形倉庫”——竭盡所能地留住並發展專業業務。所以這類事情在區域內時有發生，但並沒有什麼新鮮事。這種情況時有發生－在產業銷售成長較低時期比在產業銷售成長較高時期更容易看到這種情況，但這並不是什麼新鮮事。但我還要補充一點，我們尚未看到整個行業的價格競爭方式發生任何改變，而且我推測，除了我們了解到的一家競爭對手正在考慮採用區域定價策略之外，我們的競爭對手在價格方面的市場策略實際上並沒有發生任何實質性變化。顯然，除了他們之外，我們所有人都在採用區域定價策略，我們只需看看這會產生什麼影響。但我認為，在定價方面，我們沒有什麼新的變化。

That's helpful. And then my follow-up question is how do you reconcile your comments about weather influencing the industry sales and the fact that your trends improved in September, and it sounds like that's continued into October, despite the fact that it's been abnormally warm in areas of the country like the Northeast? And then if we see another abnormally warm and dry winter, is this 1% to 2% growth rate kind of the new norm for the business?

那很有幫助。那麼我的後續問題是，您如何解釋您關於天氣影響行業銷售的評論，以及您的趨勢在 9 月份有所改善，而且聽起來這種改善趨勢一直延續到 10 月份的事實，儘管像東北部這樣的地區天氣異常溫暖？那麼，如果我們再次經歷一個異常溫暖乾燥的冬季，1%到2%的成長率是否會成為該產業的新常態？

Yes. Well, what I would say, Michael, is that we've had 2 consecutive winters of mild weather, and we've had a mild summer. I think as winter has approached in some markets, we -- what we've seen is a good reaction in some of the winter preparation-type of items and that, most likely, there are people that know that they didn't do some things to their cars last winter and maybe even the winter before because they had the mild winter, and they're anticipating the need to do it. And so that's -- we feel like that's probably a little bit of a driving factor in the early season prior to weather hopefully turning cold and us having a brutal winter this winter in much of the country. We're not as exposed to the Northeast as some of our competitors, but we do realize it's been softer up there. We're growing up there. So the fact that maybe demand hasn't been as good on a macro level up there as what it typically would be this time of year, we may not see as much because our stores are still in kind of a high growth rate because they're newer stores. Relative to your question on 1% to 2% being the new norm, if weather is to be -- we have another mild winter or something like that, that's yet to be seen. I -- it would be very surprising if we had 3 winters as mild as the 2 we've had in the past. But time will tell, and we'll see. Some of the things that are caused to fail by extreme weather are items that are going to fail no matter what. Extreme weather just causes them to fail earlier than they would have otherwise. So what I would say is that if we have a real cold winter in many markets this year, I would expect demand to be pretty robust. If we don't, some of the things that didn't fail 2 years ago or last year are bound to fail this year just based on time and miles rather than extreme weather. So we would expect there to -- this winter to be a better season for us and I wouldn't expect 1% to 2% to be the new norm.

是的。邁克爾，我想說的是，我們已經連續兩個冬天氣候溫和，而且今年夏天氣候也比較溫和。我認為隨著一些市場冬季的臨近，我們看到一些冬季準備用品的銷售情況良好，很可能有些人知道，由於去年冬天比較暖和，他們沒有對汽車進行一些保養，現在他們預計需要進行這些保養。所以，我們覺得這可能是賽季初期的一個驅動因素，因為天氣有望轉冷，而今年冬天全國大部分地區都將迎來嚴酷的冬季。雖然我們不像一些競爭對手那樣對東北地區如此依賴，但我們確實意識到那裡的經濟狀況比較疲軟。我們在那裡長大。因此，儘管宏觀層面的需求可能不如往年同期那麼好，但我們可能不會看到太多成長，因為我們的門市仍然處於較高的成長率，因為它們是新開的門市。關於你提出的 1% 到 2% 會成為新常態的問題，如果天氣真的像你所說的那樣——比如我們又迎來一個暖冬之類的——那還有待觀察。如果接下來的三個冬天都像過去兩個冬天一樣溫暖，那將非常令人驚訝。但時間會證明一切，我們拭目以待。有些東西即使沒有極端天氣也會故障，而極端天氣也會導致這些東西故障。極端天氣只會導致它們比原本更早失效。所以我想說的是，如果今年很多市場真的會迎來一個非常寒冷的冬天，我預計需求會相當強勁。如果我們不這樣做，一些兩年前或去年沒有失敗的事情，今年肯定會失敗，原因只是時間和里程，而不是極端天氣。因此，我們預計今年冬天對我們來說會是一個更好的季節，我不認為 1% 到 2% 會成為新的常態。

And our next question comes from Brian Nagel from Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的布萊恩·納格爾。

So I, too, just wanted to begin with a question on gross margins. And Tom, I know you addressed this somewhat in your prepared comments, but can you help us understand better what really changed from, say, Q1 -- or I'm sorry, Q2 to Q3, where gross margins went up -- from being up solidly to down slightly? What were the key factors that changed there? And then recognizing you don't give guidance beyond 2017, how should we think about gross -- given what the industry dynamics are right now, how should we think about gross margins as we look out into 2018 and beyond?

所以，我也想先問一個關於毛利率的問題。湯姆，我知道你在準備好的評論中已經談到了這一點，但你能否幫助我們更好地理解，例如，從第一季度（或者抱歉，是第二季度到第三季度）毛利率穩步上升到略微下降，究竟發生了什麼變化？那裡發生改變的關鍵因素是什麼？考慮到貴公司沒有提供 2017 年以後的業績指引，鑑於目前的產業動態，我們該如何看待毛利率？展望 2018 年及以後，我們該如何看待毛利率？

So your question is, to make sure I have this right, is the year-over-year difference, second quarter to third quarter?

所以你的問題是，為了確保我理解正確，這個年比差異是指第二季到第三季的差異嗎？

That's correct.

沒錯。

Okay. So when we look at the second quarter of 2016, we had a significant LIFO charge, and that created a lot of the difference. When we look at our gross margin, we tend to look on a quarter-to-quarter basis, not year-over-year. The best indicator is how we did the quarter before. And there is some seasonality within that based on the product mix that we sell during that quarter. So the comparison of how much we were over in the second quarter versus the third quarter really has to do with that LIFO number. If we look at the sequential margin from the second to the third quarter, we actually improved. And a lot of that is based on seasonality and we'd expect it to continue to improve, per our guidance, in the fourth quarter based on the products. As far as next year, we see a pretty stable pricing environment out there. We see a non-inflationary environment continuing, and we'd anticipate that we'll continue to work hard at improving our gross margins. To the extent that we are better able to leverage our fixed costs, we'll see an improvement. Our merchants are always working on getting better deals. So we wouldn't expect to have the pressure maybe that we've seen this year ex LIFO.

好的。因此，當我們回顧 2016 年第二季時，我們產生了一筆數額龐大的後進先出 (LIFO) 費用，這造成了很大的差異。當我們查看毛利率時，我們傾向於按季度查看，而不是按年查看。最好的指標是我們上一季的表現。而且，由於我們在該季度銷售的產品組合不同，其中也存在一定的季節性因素。因此，第二季與第三季超支金額的比較實際上與後進先出法（LIFO）的計算結果有關。如果我們看一下第二季到第三季的環比利潤率，實際上我們有所提高。許多因素都與季節性有關，根據我們的預測，預計第四季度產品狀況將繼續改善。至於明年，我們預計市場價格環境將相當穩定。我們認為非通膨環境將持續，並預期我們將繼續努力提高毛利率。如果我們能更好地利用固定成本，就會看到改善。我們的商家一直在努力爭取更優惠的價格。因此，我們預計不會像今年採用後進先出法（LIFO）那樣面臨壓力。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just my follow-up question, with respect to hurricanes, so it sounds like you got your stores up and running quite quick through the storms. Should we expect any type of recovery demand in your business as we look over the balance of '17 or even beyond?

知道了。那很有幫助。然後，我還有一個後續問題，關於颶風，聽起來你們的商店在風暴期間很快就恢復了運作。展望 2017 年剩餘時間甚至更遠的未來，我們是否應該預期貴公司會出現任何類型的復甦需求？

Well, I think there's always some. The cars that were flooded that weren't totaled, or cars that maybe were in really bad shape that people decided to salvage, there's fluid changes and other things, we've been through this before. And Jeff, I might ask you to kind of speak to some of the things that we see in the stores relative to items that people work on and repair following hurricanes and how long that lasts.

嗯，我覺得總是會有一些的。那些被水淹過但沒有報廢的汽車，或者那些狀況非常糟糕但人們決定搶救的汽車，需要更換液體和其他一些東西，我們以前也經歷過這種情況。傑夫，我想請你談談我們在商店裡看到的一些與颶風過後人們修理的物品以及這些物品能持續多久有關的事情。

Sure. Well, I mean, obviously, the big ones would be -- the immediate would be the filters and the fluids and the things to kind of get the flooded cars that weren't totaled back in service. Following that, I mean, there's going to be damage to rotating electrical. That's -- we should see a bump in that in the affected markets. It's hard to tell. I mean, we've been through several of these over the years. And in those affected regions, there will be some post-hurricane demand for some period of time. I don't know exactly when that will play out.

當然。嗯，我的意思是，很顯然，最迫切的問題是——最直接的問題是更換濾芯、更換液體，以及更換那些被淹沒但還沒報廢的汽車，讓它們重新投入使用。接下來，我的意思是，旋轉馬達將會受到損壞。也就是說，我們應該會在受影響的市場看到這種情況出現成長。很難說。我的意思是，這些年來我們已經經歷過好幾次這樣的事情了。在這些受災地區，颶風過後一段時間仍會出現一些需求。我不知道這件事具體什麼時候會發生。

One additional benefit, Brian, is that many of the cars that were totaled, the people that -- whose car was totaled, they'll go out and buy new cars. Many of them, I would speculate many of our customers that had cars that were totaled and got insurance checks have probably never bought a new car and wouldn't this time, so they're out buying used cars. As a matter of fact, the used car market in Houston is robust. There aren't enough used cars down there, and auctions across the U.S. are filling the need for cars in those flooded areas. So as these customers buy these used cars, many times, someone with a car that's new to them takes it through a maintenance cycle, which is generally good for us. So I think that late in 2017, 2018, we do stand to have some benefit from those used cars that are new to families that go through a maintenance cycle to become the family car.

布萊恩，還有一個額外的好處是，很多被撞毀的汽車的車主，他們的車被撞毀了，他們會去買新車。我推測，我們許多汽車報廢並獲得保險賠償的客戶可能從未買過新車，這次也不會買，所以他們轉而購買二手車。事實上，休士頓的二手車市場非常活躍。當地二手車數量不足，全美各地的拍賣會正滿足這些洪水災區對汽車的需求。因此，當這些顧客購買這些二手車時，很多時候，新車車主會對其進行保養，這通常對我們來說是件好事。所以我認為，在 2017 年底、2018 年，我們確實可以從那些對家庭來說很新的二手車中受益，這些二手車經過維護週期後成為家庭用車。

And our next question comes from Kate McShane from Citi Research.

下一個問題來自花旗研究部的凱特‧麥克沙恩。

I think you'd mentioned in the prepared comments just some of the better results that you were seeing at your new stores. Can you walk through how close some of these newer stores are to existing stores? And what is exactly driving some of these better results and how they can maybe be leveraged into the rest of the fleet?

我想您在事先準備好的評論中已經提到過一些您在新店取得的較好成果。可以詳細介紹一下這些新店與現有門市之間的距離嗎？究竟是什麼因素促成了這些更好的結果？又該如何將這些結果推廣到其他機隊呢？

Okay. Well, our -- we put in just some fantastic new stores, and I think you may be surprised to know that one of our largest growth markets is Texas, where we have a number of stores and operate in virtually every market. So they're backfill stores. And in Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, markets like that, we're constantly evaluating where we might put additional stores. So some of the new stores we opened are stores that are reasonably close to existing stores, but we know by the work we do demographically that we're not getting as much business as we could potentially get if we had another store, and we justify opening an additional store. On the other hand, many of our new stores are in Florida and the northeast, where we don't have existing stores. And those stores where we don't have overlap, we establish our brand and do very well. I was just -- I just attended our new store up in Norwich, Connecticut, which was our 5,000th store, I attended that opening. And it's just incredible, the number of customers that come in who are thankful we're there, happy we're there, enthused about the new store, impressed with the way the store looks. So we do a lot around promotions and putting a great team in the store to get a store off to good start. And frankly, over the years, we just got better at it than we were in the past. And today, our new store openings outpace what they had a few years ago, and we're pleased with the new stores we opened, both in backfill markets and in new store growth markets.

好的。嗯，我們——我們開設了一些非常棒的新店，我想你可能會驚訝地發現，我們成長最快的市場之一是德克薩斯州，我們在那裡有很多門市，幾乎在每個市場都有業務。所以它們是備用倉庫。在休士頓、達拉斯、奧斯汀、聖安東尼奧等市場，我們一直在評估哪裡可以增設門市。因此，我們新開的一些門市距離現有門市相當近，但我們透過人口統計分析得知，如果我們再開一家店，我們的生意可能會更好，所以我們有理由再開一家店。另一方面，我們的許多新店都位於佛羅裡達州和東北部，而我們目前在這些地區還沒有門市。而對於那些我們沒有業務重疊的門市，我們會建立自己的品牌，而且做得非常好。我剛剛——我剛剛參加了我們在康涅狄格州諾維奇的新店開幕典禮，那是我們的第 5000 家門店，我參加了開幕典禮。令人難以置信的是，進店的顧客中有很多人對我們在這裡感到感激、高興，對新店充滿熱情，對店舖的裝修風格印象深刻。因此，我們在促銷方面做了很多工作，並組建了一支優秀的團隊到店裡，以確保門市能夠順利開業。坦白說，這些年來，我們在這方面比以前做得更好了。如今，我們的新店開幕速度已經超過了幾年前的水平，我們對新開的門市感到滿意，無論是填補市場空缺還是拓展新店市場。

And our next question comes from Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙古特曼。

First question is on sales. I wanted to ask how do you know if some of the strength that you saw in September, October wasn't just this hurricane rebound that you mentioned and that you don't see -- that trends won't soften from there? I guess, maybe you can talk to some geographic markets or categories of parts.

第一個問題是關於銷售的。我想問一下，您如何確定您在九月和十月看到的某些強勁勢頭不僅僅是您提到的颶風反彈，而且您也沒有看到——這種趨勢會從此減弱？我想，或許你可以和一些地理市場或零件類別談談。

Yes, that's how we would know, Simeon, is simply because we know the effect that those regions that were affected, what they can -- what effect they can have and did have based on the detail we obviously see on the whole company. And we know that, that was -- that is not the primary reason of the improvement, although we did have -- we have had some rebound in those markets. But there just isn't enough scale there to cause us to -- cause an effect on the whole company the way that you might be alluding to.

是的，西蒙，我們之所以知道，是因為我們知道受影響地區的影響，以及它們可能造成和已經造成的影響，這都是基於我們對整個公司情況的了解。我們知道，那並不是改善的主要原因，儘管我們確實在這些市場上取得了一些反彈。但那裡的規模還不夠大，不足以對我們——像你可能暗示的那樣對整個公司產生影響。

Got it. Okay. And then I want to ask about the sweet spot. We've talked a lot a bit -- a lot about it, and there's a lot of ways to slice it. I mean, clearly, 2017 wasn't the year it happened, or at least it was clouded by weather, but it would seem like 2018 should be a year where, mathematically, the number of cars in that sweet spot do increase. Do you agree with that? And is there any rhyme or reason for it to occur earlier or later in next year?

知道了。好的。然後我想問最佳平衡點是什麼。我們已經談論了很多——關於這件事，有很多種切入點。我的意思是，很顯然，2017 年並沒有發生這種情況，或者至少受到了天氣的影響，但從數學角度來看，2018 年應該是汽車數量處於最佳位置的一年。你同意嗎？那麼，明年發生的時間是提前還是延後，是否有某種規律或原因呢？

No. I agree with you that we should begin seeing it in 2018. The 2008 to 2011 cars will be on the tail end of the demand curve, and their presence in the vehicle population and the number of those cars won't be as impacting on the overall demand in the industry.

不。我同意你的看法，我們應該從2018年開始看到這種情況。2008 年至 2011 年款的汽車將處於需求曲線的尾端，它們在汽車保有量中的存在以及這些汽車的數量不會對整個行業的整體需求產生太大影響。

And our next question comes from Dan Wewer from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 公司的 Dan Wewer。

Greg, I want to follow up on that same topic. Back in 2008, the company had an unexpected weakening of same-store sales along with the economy. It had a nice rebound of 4.6% in 2009, a little bit of a similar pullback in 2012 results, followed by a recovery to 4.3% comps in 2013. When you think about next year, do you think that we're set up for a snapback in comp sales maybe to at least the midpoint of 3%? It sounds like you're a little bit more bullish on vehicle demographics as well for next year.

格雷格，我想繼續探討這個主題。2008年，受經濟情勢影響，該公司同店銷售額意外下滑。2009 年實現了 4.6% 的良好反彈，2012 年業績略有回落，隨後在 2013 年恢復至 4.3% 的同店銷售額。展望明年，您認為同店銷售額是否有可能迅速回升，至少達到 3% 的中點？聽起來你對明年的汽車市場前景也比較樂觀。

Dan, what I'd say is that having been a little bit surprised this year with the softness that we experienced, we -- you don't know how a year is going to play out when do your plan. And Tom and his team do an outstanding job budgeting and forecasting and so forth. But what I would say is we have much easier compares next year, and we've had tough compares for several years in a row now. So I would say that on the tail end of what we would view as this air bubble in the vehicle population and the easier compares, yes, we would expect to have a better comp store sales year next year than what we had this year. And while we haven't done the work for our -- to forecast and set our plan and give guidance yet, I'm hopeful that we will arrive at a point at the end of this year based on our performance in the fourth quarter that we have confidence in setting a more aggressive comp store sales plan for next year.

丹，我想說的是，今年我們所經歷的疲軟讓我們有點意外，但是——你制定計劃的時候，並不知道一年會如何發展。湯姆和他的團隊在預算、預測等方面做得非常出色。但我想說的是，明年我們的比較基數要小得多，而我們已經連續幾年面臨比較基數很大的情況了。所以我認為，在汽車保有量泡沫逐漸消退、比較數據更容易統計的情況下，明年同店銷售應該會比今年好。雖然我們還沒有完成預測、制定計劃和提供指導的工作，但我希望，根據我們第四季度的業績，到今年年底，我們將有信心為明年制定一個更積極的同店銷售計劃。

Also, you commented on the feedback from your commercial customers and they indicated they think the weakness is impacting them as well. What are they saying about the dealers' service business? The public companies have been showing that their service business has been strengthening. Is there a risk that they're having some impact on that down-the-street mechanic and that could be having some influence on their softer results?

此外，您也對商業客戶的回饋進行了評論，他們表示認為這項缺陷也對他們產生了影響。他們對經銷商的售後服務業務有何評價？上市公司已經證明，它們的服務業務一直在增強。他們會不會對街角的修車師傅產生一些影響，導致他們的業績下滑？

Well, I think that there is something to that, Dan. I think that the shops that do diagnostic work and drivability work that's relatively technical, I think that the dealers are doing -- have done a better job in the last several years of trying to hang onto some of that business. Not necessarily because of the revenue and profit generated from the repairs, although that's beneficial, but more so because they're trying to get the next new car buy. The people that buy new cars and go through a warranty process where they have warranty work done at the dealer, they try to hang on to them thinking that if they're a new car buyer, someone that is going to buy a new car versus a used car, that they have a better chance of getting that next new car sale if they do a good job from a service standpoint. So I think that some of our competitors, depending -- I mean, some of our customers, depending on how technical of a shop it is, does view the dealers as being a significant competitor. And when it comes to the shops that do primarily undercar, brake work, alignments, tires, chassis and suspension work relative to alignments and tire wear, I don't think they're nearly as exposed to that, and they don't have an issue with the dealers because the dealers, I don't think just do -- they don't do that much of that kind of work.

嗯，我覺得這話有一定道理，丹。我認為，那些從事診斷工作和駕駛性能測試等技術性較強的工作的店鋪，經銷商在過去幾年裡為了留住這些業務做得更好了。倒不一定是因為維修帶來的收入和利潤（雖然這很有利），更重要的是，他們想促成下一輛新車的銷售。那些購買新車並經歷保固流程（即在經銷商處進行保固工作）的人，會努力維持保修，他們認為，如果他們是新車買家，而不是二手車買家，那麼如果他們在服務方面做得好，他們就更有可能獲得下一輛新車的銷售。所以我認為，我們的一些競爭對手，我的意思是，我們的一些客戶，取決於商店的技術水平，確實將經銷商視為重要的競爭對手。至於那些主要從事底盤、煞車、四輪定位、輪胎、底盤和懸吊相關工作的修理店，我認為他們受到的影響要小得多，而且他們和經銷商之間也沒有問題，因為經銷商，我認為——他們不做那麼多這類工作。

And our next question comes from Bret Jordan from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的布雷特喬丹。

Could you talk about the comp, the magnitude of the comp improvement? Some of the suppliers are talking about some, I guess, almost good POS data from their perspective on September, and maybe talk about how much we saw improvement as the quarter progressed. And then, maybe regional spread. You talked about the central states being the weakest, but if you could give us some idea of sort of the spread between worst and best?

能談談競爭對手的狀況，以及競爭對手改進的幅度嗎？一些供應商談到了他們眼中九月份一些還不錯的 POS 數據，他們可能還談到了隨著季度推進，我們看到了多大的改善。然後，或許會出現區域性傳播。您提到中部各州實力最弱，但您能否大致介紹一下實力最弱和最弱各州之間的差距？

Yes. Well, yes, we don't want to get into a lot of detail about our comps, specifically by month. But we said that September was the best month of the third quarter and that better trend has continued into the -- into the fourth quarter. Although we don't want to sound overly aggressive, because we know we have this tough compare coming in December and we have the headwinds from the holiday and the extra Sunday and so forth. But yes, I think that what you're hearing from suppliers would be reasonably accurate about the improvement that's been seen in September and October. And I'm sorry, I forgot the second half of your question.

是的。是的，我們不想過度透露我們的比較數據，特別是按月的數據。但我們說過，9 月是第三季表現最好的月份，而且這種好轉的趨勢一直延續到了第四季。雖然我們不想顯得過於激進，因為我們知道 12 月我們將面臨一個嚴峻的對比，我們還面臨著假期、額外的星期日等等帶來的不利影響。但是，我認為你從供應商那裡聽到的消息，關於九月和十月所取得的進步，應該是相當準確的。抱歉，我忘了回答你問題的後半部。

The regional spread, how much did the central states underperform your strong markets?

區域差異方面，中部各州的表現比你們強勁的市場遜色多少？

Right. Yes, the Central and East would be softer than our West. The West Coast and the western half of the country has been our best performing this past quarter.

正確的。是的，中部和東部地區會比西部地區更溫和。上個季度，西海岸和美國西部地區是我們表現最好的地區。

Okay. And then as a follow-up question, on M&A, obviously the GPC guys bought Monroe and Rochester, or are buying, and you'd done the Bond deal a year ago. Are you seeing more of the smaller independents, the undercar warehouses you talk about, that maybe are challenged in a soft environment looking to sell now?

好的。然後，關於併購，還有一個後續問題，顯然 GPC 的人收購了 Monroe 和 Rochester，或者正在收購，而你們一年前就完成了 Bond 的交易。您是否看到更多像您提到的那種規模較小的獨立企業，例如汽車底盤倉庫，它們可能在疲軟的市場環境下面臨挑戰，現在正尋求出售？

There's always a few out there that are ready to sell. Some overlap with us, which causes valuation to be a problem. But yes, I think the softness in the business causes more of them to be interested in selling than they are in times of robust business.

總是會有一些人準備出售。有些業務與我們重疊，這導致估值成為一個問題。但是，我認為，在市場疲軟時期，更多的人會傾向於出售房產，而不是在市場繁榮時期。

Our next question comes from Alan Rifkin from BTIG.

下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Alan Rifkin。

My first question relates to inflation, both with respect to commodity prices as well as wages. Greg, one of your chief competitors talked about that they were seeing some inflation in commodity pricing. I was wondering why at this point you're not really seeing that. And then as the second half to that first question, what are you seeing, if any, with respect to wage pressure inside your stores?

我的第一個問題與通貨膨脹有關，包括商品價格和薪資的通貨膨脹。格雷格，你的一個主要競爭對手提到，他們發現大宗商品價格出現了一些通貨膨脹。我想知道為什麼你到現在還沒真正意識到這一點。那麼，作為第一個問題的第二部分，您在門市中是否觀察到任何工資壓力？

Okay. Well on commodity pricing, and we've -- I'm sure that we are shopped electronically as we shop our competitors just ongoing, and we have seen a little bit of inflation in commodities over time. So we do see some benefit from that, although it's not material across of the scope of our whole inventory since the majority of our business is hard parts and batteries and things like that. Although we continue to be very aware of how our competitors price and look for every opportunity to adjust our prices where we see an opportunity to do so. On wages, I think we see the same pressures that our competitors see. It's well known throughout the country that several municipalities have their minimum wage set well above the U.S. minimum wage, and it's just we work to make sure that our stores are as productive as they can be, and Jeff Shaw and his team just do a great job of managing this. Jeff, you might talk a little bit about the productivity things and some of the things we're doing with our drivers from a routing standpoint, things like that, to help drive productivity in our stores, if you'd like.

好的。關於大宗商品定價，我相信我們和競爭對手一樣，一直在透過網路進行價格比較，而且我們已經看到大宗商品價格隨著時間的推移出現了一些通貨膨脹。因此，我們確實從中看到了一些好處，儘管這在我們整個庫存範圍內並不顯著，因為我們的大部分業務都是零件、電池之類的東西。儘管我們始終非常關注競爭對手的定價策略，並會尋找一切機會調整價格。在薪資方面，我認為我們面臨著與競爭對手相同的壓力。眾所周知，全國許多城市的最低工資標準都遠高於美國最低工資標準，而我們只是努力確保我們的門市盡可能高效運轉，傑夫·肖和他的團隊在這方面做得非常出色。Jeff，如果你願意的話，可以談談提高生產力方面的事情，以及我們從路線規劃的角度為司機們所做的一些事情，例如如何提高我們門市的生產力。

Yes. I mean, anytime there's low unemployment, I mean, there's going to be wage pressure, and these municipalities don't really help things. But when payroll goes up, you've got to manage productivity team member by team member, and we do that with various things, and we're using more and more technology all the time to try to leverage our team member productivity to keep our SG&A in line. So it's just the same thing we've always fought. I mean, we'll work through it and manage it quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year.

是的。我的意思是，任何時候失業率低，都會有薪資上漲的壓力，而這些市政當局並沒有真正幫助解決這個問題。但是，當薪資支出增加時，就必須逐一管理團隊成員的生產力，我們透過各種方式來實現這一點，並且我們一直在使用越來越多的技術來嘗試提高團隊成員的生產力，以控制銷售、一般及行政費用。所以，這和我們一直以來奮鬥的事情沒什麼兩樣。我的意思是，我們會逐季、逐年解決這個問題。

Alan, this is Greg Johnson. I'd like to just add to the commodity pricing question. I don't think we've seen anything out of the norm this year from a commodity pricing. The commodity -- a lot of the commodity pricing is based on pricing of various metals, fuel-based pricing, things like that. We see fluctuations every year, and we've been able to pass along most of those price increases.

艾倫，我是格雷格·約翰遜。我想就商品定價問題補充一點。我認為今年大宗商品價格並沒有出現任何異常情況。大宗商品－許多大宗商品的定價都是基於各種金屬的價格、燃料價格等等。每年價格都會出現波動，但我們已經能夠將大部分價格上漲轉嫁給消費者。

Okay. And just a follow-up, if I may. Greg Henslee, you said one of the factors, although further down on the list, that you thought was responsible for the weakness not only in your business, but for the industry, was the addressable vehicles over to 2008 to 2011 time period. That's a pretty long period of time, right, both during the recession as well as the year before and the year after. Does that length of time and the fact that you believe that it is influencing your business, does that maybe give you some pause in terms of changing just the near-term strategy since it looks like it's somewhat of a prolonged period of time, possibly taking down the new store growth just a little bit till we get to the other end of that?

好的。如果可以的話，我再補充一點。格雷格·亨斯利，你曾說過，導致你的企業乃至整個行業疲軟的因素之一（儘管在列表中排名靠後），是 2008 年至 2011 年期間可尋址車輛的數量。那可是相當長的一段時間，包括經濟衰退期間以及衰退前一年和衰退後一年。考慮到時間跨度以及您認為它正在影響您的業務，這是否會讓您在改變近期策略方面有所猶豫？因為這似乎是比較長的時期，或許應該稍微放緩新店成長，直到我們度過這段時期？

No, it doesn't, Alan. And just to be -- I'm sure everyone understands this, but I'm going to say it anyway. What we're talking about is just simply the depressed new car sales during those years and there being fewer of those cars in the ideal sweet spot for selling auto parts, which is if you looked across the bell curve of the demand for parts, when that population decreases, it can have an effect. The reason I wouldn't look at it from the perspective you mentioned relative to maybe knowing that's coming and changing our growth is I feel like it's offset pretty significantly by the fact that cars just stay on the road longer. Some of the cars that are older that used to be cars that customers just wouldn't invest in because they were nearing their time to go to the scrapyard, that's just not the case as much. So I think that the effect of this, while it is a factor, is somewhat muted by the fact that there are just more cars on the road that are older that are still worthy of significant investment because they're still pretty good cars.

不，不是這樣的，艾倫。還有一點——我相信大家都明白這一點，但我還是要說。我們所討論的其實就是那幾年新車銷量低迷，導致汽車零件銷售的理想市場（即汽車數量較少的市場）的汽車數量減少。如果你觀察零件需求的鐘形曲線，你會發現當汽車數量減少時，就會產生影響。我不認為從你提到的那種角度來看，預知未來趨勢並改變我們的發展方式會帶來多大的影響，因為我覺得汽車行駛里程延長這一事實在很大程度上抵消了這種影響。有些老舊汽車，以前顧客根本不會投資購買，因為它們快要報廢了，但現在這種情況已經不那麼普遍了。所以我認為，雖然這是一個因素，但由於路上有很多老舊汽車仍然值得大量投資，因為它們仍然是相當不錯的汽車，因此這種影響在某種程度上被削弱了。

And our next question comes from Christopher Horvers from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的克里斯多福·霍弗斯。

So can you remind us how steep was the decline in the business in December? I know you benefited -- everyone benefited from the cold weather, but at the same time, you also had some headwinds that were starting to emerge with a Hispanic customer. I'm curious if you could also talk about what you're seeing there. Is that customer more stable now? And do you think that was a drag on your business as early as around the election time frame?

那麼，您能否提醒我們一下，12月的業務下滑幅度有多大？我知道你從中受益了——每個人都從寒冷的天氣中受益了，但同時，你也開始遇到一些不利因素，例如一位西班牙裔顧客。我很想知道你是否也能談談你在那裡看到了什麼。那位客戶現在更穩定了嗎？你認為這是否在選舉前後對你的生意造成了影響？

We don't give monthly comp numbers, but I’ll tell you, December -- the comp in December was approximately double what it was the other 2 months of the quarter. So it was a significant step up. And a lot of the business during December was directly related to real cold weather. It was batteries and other cold winter items that we sold during that period of time that -- we might replicate this again in December. We'll have to see. If we have real cold weather, then there should be a lot of batteries out there that are ready to fail, and a real cold snap across the country would cause them to fail. So we'll just have to see. But December was a material step up last year for us from a comp store sales basis compared to October and November. On the Hispanic customer, we think it's getting better. Jeff, you made some comments earlier that the -- what some of the RMs and DMs have been saying to you. So we think it's improving. And Jeff, you might have a comment relative to that.

我們不公佈月度業績數據，但我可以告訴你，12 月份的業績——12 月份的業績大約是該季度其他兩個月的兩倍。所以這是一次重大進步。12 月份的許多業務都與嚴寒天氣直接相關。那段時間我們賣出了電池和其他冬季保暖用品——我們可能會在 12 月再次複製這一成功。我們拭目以待。如果真的遇到嚴寒天氣，那麼市面上應該會有很多電池都容易失效，而席捲全國的寒流會導致它們全部失效。所以，我們只能拭目以待了。但與去年 10 月和 11 月相比，12 月的同店銷售額有了顯著提升。我們認為，對於西班牙裔顧客來說，情況正在好轉。Jeff，你之前說過一些話，指的是一些RM和DM跟你說的話。所以我們認為情況正在好轉。傑夫，你或許對此有什麼看法。

Yes. I mean, what we're hearing from some of the heaviest Hispanic markets is the operators feel that it's ticking back up. Foot traffic is picking up and some of the professional business is picking back up. So at this point, it's isolated, but we are hearing some positive comments, more than we've heard all year.

是的。我的意思是，我們從一些西班牙裔人口最多的市場中了解到，營運商們感覺市場正在回升。人流量正在回升，一些專業業務也在恢復。所以目前來看，這只是個別事件，但我們聽到了一些正面的評價，比今年以來聽到的都要多。

Would -- could you venture, I mean, as you think about that customer, how much perhaps that, that's been a headwind, or whether the headwind, whether in the fourth quarter last year or in the first quarter, is it -- is it like 20 or 30 basis points? Or is it something more material?

您能否大膽推測一下，我的意思是，當您考慮這位客戶時，這或許是一個不利因素，或者說，無論是去年第四季度還是今年第一季度，這個不利因素的影響是 20 到 30 個基點嗎？或者，它指的是更物質的東西？

It would just be an absolute guess, and I'd rather not put a number on it. It's been a factor. There's been enough discussion about it and the information we get from a company called NPD, who you're probably familiar with, that outlines just general retail demand among the Hispanic customer base and where the Hispanic population is most prevalent in driving retail demand across the country has indicated that it's a factor. But it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for us to put a number on the impact.

這純粹是猜測，我不想給出確切的數字。這是一個因素。關於這個問題已經有很多討論了，我們從一家名為 NPD 的公司（你可能很熟悉這家公司）獲得的資訊表明，這是一個影響因素。該公司概述了西班牙裔客戶群的一般零售需求，以及西班牙裔人口在全國範圍內推動零售需求的最普遍情況。但即便不是不可能，我們也很難量化其影響。

Understood. And then just as a quick follow-up. Tom, does the shrink headwind continue as you look into the next few quarters? Is this at sort of a new rate of an accrual? Or was this just more of a one-time adjustment here in the third quarter?

明白了。然後，我再快速補充一點。湯姆，展望未來幾季，經濟萎縮的不利因素是否會持續？這是某種新的應計費率嗎？或者這只是第三季的一次性調整？

We would -- we spend a lot of time managing shrink. Our field team, DCs teams do an amazing job; our LP team does an amazing job. And I would tell you that this is just an oddity for us that kind of popped and probably had a lot to do with the timing at the -- of the end of the quarter, and how much inventory we had to move around in different ways based on the events that occurred during the quarter.

我們會——我們花很多時間來應付損耗。我們的現場團隊、配送中心團隊和物流團隊都做得非常出色；我們的物流團隊也做得非常好。我會告訴你，這只是我們遇到的一個奇怪現象，它突然出現，可能與季度末的時間點有很大關係，也與我們根據本季度發生的事件需要以不同方式調配的大量庫存有關。

And our next question comes from Chris Bottiglieri from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Bottiglieri。

The first one is clerical. Does your SG&A guidance, is that GAAP? Like, do you adjust that for the legal reserve and for the M&A? Like, how are you looking at that?

第一個是文員。你們的銷售、一般及行政費用指引符合公認會計準則嗎？例如，你會根據法定儲備和併購情況進行調整嗎？你是怎麼看待這件事的？

I'm sorry. Our SG&A guidance would be GAAP.

對不起。我們的銷售、管理及行政費用指引將依照公認會計準則 (GAAP) 執行。

GAAP. Okay. And then, so obviously, pretty impressive performance year-to-date. You're basically running flattish versus 3%. This is ex dollars. You strip out depreciation and rent out of your SG&A, versus running 3% for the prior years. I was maybe hoping you can kind of bridge that gap. Like how much is it incentive comp coming out of the SG&A base? How much -- is there any way -- any reason to think that some of these expenses could be pushed into 2018? I just kind of wanted to get your thoughts there.

GAAP。好的。所以，很顯然，今年迄今的表現相當出色。你的成長率基本上是 3%，而不是 3%。這是不含稅美元的價格。您將銷售、一般及行政費用中的折舊和租金剔除，而前幾年則以 3% 的比例計算。我或許是希望你能幫我彌補這個差距。例如，激勵性薪酬中有多少是從銷售、管理及行政費用中扣除的？有多少理由認為這些費用可以延到 2018 年支付？我只是想聽聽你的想法。

I would tell you, it's just tight expense management and as we talked about before, we have variable compensation for every team member here at O'Reilly from a driver up through our executives. And the percent changes. Obviously, that number is under pressure this year. So there's some savings there that won't occur. But it's good expense management, good expense management of payroll, which is our biggest expense at both the DCs and in the stores. And we have a very -- the expenses that are volume based that go up when we have higher sales and more activity, we've done a good job managing.

我會告訴你，這只是嚴格的費用控制，而且正如我們之前討論過的，在 O'Reilly，從司機到高管，每個團隊成員的薪酬都是浮動的。百分比會改變。顯然，今年這個數字面臨壓力。所以有些節省是無法實現的。但這是良好的費用管理，尤其是薪資費用的管理，薪資是我們配送中心和門市最大的支出。而且，我們還有一些與銷售相關的費用，這些費用會在銷售額和業務量增加時上升，我們在管理這些費用方面做得很好。

Okay. Then just one brief one on LIFO. Those tailwinds have kind of slowed down a little bit, or I guess, initial headwinds, I call them lag tailwinds. How do you think about kind of your ability to extract better procurement from your vendors? Are you seeing anything change on those discussion points? Is there a certain percentage of your portfolio you've turned over in the last couple of years that makes those slower? Or how do you think about those?

好的。然後簡單介紹一下後進先出法（LIFO）。那些順風似乎減弱了一些，或者說，最初的逆風，我稱之為滯後順風。您如何看待您從供應商那裡獲得更優惠採購條件的能力？你覺得這些討論要點有什麼改變嗎？過去幾年裡，你的投資組合週轉率是否達到了一定比例，導致這些投資的報酬率下降？或者，你對這些有什麼看法？

Well, as Greg mentioned earlier, we have seen some commodity price inflation, and it's car parts where we continue to get better deals offset in part by inflation on some commodities. So we continue to work on getting great deals. But to the extent that we see commodity pricing increase, that could -- so if we see inflation provide tailwind to the top line and our industry has been pretty effective at pushing price increases for cost increases we receive.

正如格雷格之前提到的，我們已經看到一些大宗商品價格上漲，汽車零件方面我們繼續獲得更優惠的價格，但部分被某些大宗商品的通貨膨脹所抵消。因此，我們將繼續努力爭取優惠的價格。但如果大宗商品價格上漲，這可能會——因此，如果我們看到通貨膨脹為營收成長提供順風，而我們的產業在推動價格上漲以彌補成本上漲方面一直非常有效。

We have reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Greg Henslee for closing remarks.

我們的提問時間已到。現在我將把電話交還給格雷格·亨斯利先生，請他作總結發言。

Okay. Thank you, Allie. We'd just like to conclude our call today by thanking the entire O'Reilly team for our continued dedication to customer service in the third quarter and for the year. We look forward to finishing 2017 on a solid note and getting off to a strong start in 2018. I'd like to thank everyone on the call today for attending our call, and we look forward to reporting our fourth quarter of 2017 results in February. Thank you very much.

好的。謝謝你，艾莉。在今天的電話會議結束之際，我們衷心感謝 O'Reilly 團隊在第三季以及全年對客戶服務的持續奉獻。我們期待以穩健的成績結束 2017 年，並在 2018 年取得良好的開端。感謝今天所有參加電話會議的各位，我們期待在二月公佈 2017 年第四季的業績。非常感謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。