O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the O'Reilly Automotive, Incorporated fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 earnings call. My name is Richard and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions). Please note that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Tom McFall. Mr. McFall, you may begin.

    歡迎參加歐萊利汽車公司2016年第四季及全年財報電話會議。我是理查德,將擔任本次電話會議的接線生。 (接線生操作說明)。請注意,本次會議正在錄音。現在我將把電話交給湯姆·麥克福爾先生。麥克福爾先生,您可以開始了。

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • Thank you, Richard. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us. During today's conference call, we will discuss our fourth-quarter 2016 results and our outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2017. After our prepared comments, we will host a question-and-answer period.

    謝謝理查德。大家早安,感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。在今天的會議上,我們將討論2016年第四季的業績以及對2017年第一季和全年的展望。在我們作完發言後,我們將進行問答環節。

  • Before we begin this morning, I'd like to remind everyone that our comments today contain certain forward-looking statements and we intend to be covered by and we claim the protection under the Safe Harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as estimate, may, could, will, believe, expect, would, consider, should, anticipate, project, plan, intend or similar words. The Company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors described in the Company's latest Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and other recent SEC filings. The Company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call. At this time, I'd like to introduce Greg Henslee.

    在今天上午會議開始之前,我想提醒大家,我們今天的發言包含一些前瞻性陳述,我們打算並聲明這些陳述受1995年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中關於前瞻性陳述的「安全港」條款的保護。您可以透過諸如「估計」、「可能」、「可以」、「打算」、「相信」、「預期」、「會」、「考慮」、「應該」、「預計」、「計劃」、「打算」或類似詞語來識別這些陳述。由於本公司截至2015年12月31日止年度的最新10-K表格年度報告以及其他近期提交給美國證券交易委員會(SEC)的文件中所述的若干重要因素,本公司的實際業績可能與任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中任何前瞻性陳述的義務。現在,我謹介紹格雷格‧亨斯利先生。

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Thanks, Tom and good morning, everyone and welcome to the O'Reilly Auto Parts fourth-quarter conference call. Before we begin our discussion of our fourth-quarter results and our plans for 2017, I'd like to take a few minutes to discuss the announcement we made in our press release yesterday of the promotion of Greg Johnson and Jeff Shaw to Co-Presidents of O'Reilly.

    謝謝湯姆,大家早安,歡迎參加歐萊利汽車配件公司第四季財報電話會議。在開始討論第四季度業績和2017年計劃之前,我想先花幾分鐘時間談談我們昨天在新聞稿中宣布的格雷格·約翰遜和傑夫·肖晉升為歐萊利聯席總裁的消息。

  • As we've discussed many times in the past, our Company's promote from within philosophy and our deliberate commitment to succession planning are highly critical components of our strategy to build the very best team in our industry. In conjunction with that strategy, we are extremely pleased to have Greg and Jeff assume the elevated leadership roles of Co-Presidents of the Company. Greg and Jeff have both proven time and again their exceptional leadership qualities and their contributions over the last three decades are a reason why O'Reilly consistently provides excellent service to our customers and generates the best results in our industry.

    正如我們過去多次討論的那樣,公司內部晉升的理念以及我們對繼任計畫的堅定承諾,是我們打造業內最佳團隊策略中至關重要的組成部分。基於此策略,我們非常高興地宣布格雷格和傑夫將擔任公司聯席總裁這一重要領導職務。格雷格和傑夫都已多次證明了他們卓越的領導才能,他們在過去三十年中的貢獻正是歐萊利能夠持續為客戶提供優質服務並取得業內最佳業績的關鍵所在。

  • Greg and Jeff truly are long-term success stories. Greg began his career with Mid-State Automotive Distributors as a part-time distribution center team member 34 years ago and officially joined Team O'Reilly with our acquisition of Mid-State in 2001. Over the years, Greg has held key positions in information technology and throughout our distribution and operations group where his leadership has been instrumental in the development of our industry-leading network of 27 distribution centers before taking on his current broader role as Executive Vice President of Supply Chain. As Co-President, Greg is now responsible for the Company's merchandising, inventory management, advertising, as well as the added responsibilities for information technology, legal, loss prevention, risk management, human resources and finance.

    格雷格和傑夫堪稱長期成功的典範。格雷格34年前以兼職配送中心員工的身份加入Mid-State Automotive Distributors,開啟了他的職業生涯。 2001年,隨著Mid-State被O'Reilly收購,他正式加入O'Reilly團隊。多年來,格雷格在資訊科技以及配送和營運部門擔任過多個重要職位,他的領導才能對我們業界領先的27個配送中心網路的建立起到了至關重要的作用。如今,他擔任供應鏈執行副總裁,負責公司更廣泛的業務。身為聯合總裁,格雷格現在負責公司的商品銷售、庫存管理、廣告宣傳,以及資訊科技、法律、防損、風險管理、人力資源和財務等其他事務。

  • Jeff's career with O'Reilly began 27 years ago when he joined the Company as a parts specialist at one of our stores in our hometown in Springfield, Missouri. During his tenure with the Company, Jeff has served in every leadership role in our store operations group from store manager through his current role as Executive Vice President of Store Operations and sales and he has been instrumental in several acquisitions during his tenure beginning with the key role he played in our first major acquisition of Hilo Auto Supply in Texas in 1998. Now, as Co-President, Jeff is responsible for the Company's store and distribution operations teams, as well as expansion, acquisitions and real estate.

    傑夫在歐萊利的職業生涯始於27年前,當時他加入公司,擔任位於我們家鄉密蘇裡州斯普林菲爾德一家門市的零件專員。在公司任職期間,傑夫擔任過門市營運團隊的每一個領導職務,從門市經理一路晉升至目前的門市營運和銷售執行副總裁。在他的任期內,他主導了多項收購,其中最關鍵的莫過於1998年我們對德克薩斯州希洛汽車用品公司的首次重大收購。如今,身為聯席總裁,傑夫負責公司的門市和配送營運團隊,以及公司擴張、收購和房地產業務。

  • Again, I could not be more proud of the many years of service Greg and Jeff have provided our Company and I am excited about the leadership they will provide to Team O'Reilly in their new roles as Co-Presidents. Greg and Jeff are on the call with me this morning, along with Tom McFall, our Chief Financial Officer and David O'Reilly, our Executive Chairman is also on the call.

    再次重申,我對格雷格和傑夫多年來為公司做出的貢獻感到無比自豪,也對他們將以聯合總裁的身份領導奧萊利團隊感到無比興奮。今天上午,格雷格和傑夫與我一起參加了電話會議,財務長湯姆·麥克福爾和執行董事長大衛·奧萊利也參加了會議。

  • I am once again pleased to begin our call today by congratulating Team O'Reilly on another strong year in 2016. We finished the year off with a comparable store sales increase of 4.8% in the fourth quarter, which matched our increase for the full year of 2016. The solid 4.8% comp store sales growth for 2016 was at the high end of our guidance of 3% to 5% and came on top of 7.5% and 6% in 2015 and 2014 respectively. Our ability to continue to grow our business and capture marketshare year in and year out is a testament to our team's commitment to providing excellent customer service and I want to thank each of our team members for their dedication to our Company's long-term success.

    今天,我再次很高興地在電話會議上祝賀奧萊利團隊在2016年又取得了驕人的成績。第四季度,我們的同店銷售額成長了4.8%,與2016年全年的增幅持平。 2016年4.8%的同店銷售額成長率達到了我們先前3%至5%的預期上限,而2015年和2014年的成長率分別為7.5%和6%。我們能夠持續發展業務並逐年擴大市場份額,這充分證明了我們團隊致力於提供卓越客戶服務的決心。我衷心感謝每一位團隊成員為公司長遠發展所做的貢獻。

  • For the fourth quarter, we grew total sales by 7.7% and for the full year, we generated 7.9% total sales growth. Our ongoing focus on growing sales profitably and controlling expenses translated our solid top-line performance into a record fourth-quarter operating profit of 19.4%. For the full year, we generated a record operating profit of 19.8%, which was a 77 basis point improvement over 2015.

    第四季度,我們的總銷售額成長了7.7%;全年總銷售額成長了7.9%。我們持續專注於實現獲利性銷售成長並控製成本,這使得我們穩健的營收表現轉化為第四季創紀錄的19.4%的營業利潤率。全年營業利益率也創下19.8%的歷史新高,較2015年提高了77個基點。

  • During the quarter, we generated earnings per share of $2.59, which represents an increase of 18% over the prior year. This quarter represents our 32nd consecutive quarter of EPS growth of 15% or greater, excluding the atypical tax benefit in the third quarter of 2015. For the year, we generated EPS of $10.73, which was an increase of 17% over the prior year. This year represents our eighth straight year we have generated annual EPS growth of 17% or greater and this remarkable track record of strong, consistent earnings growth is a reflection of the effectiveness of Team O'Reilly's customer service-oriented culture, our dual market strategy and our focus on profitable, sustainable growth.

    本季度,我們每股收益為 2.59 美元,較上年同期成長 18%。本季是我們連續第 32 季實現每股收益 15% 或以上的成長(不包括 2015 年第三季的特殊稅收優惠)。全年來看,我們每股收益為 10.73 美元,較上年同期成長 17%。今年是我們連續第八年實現年度每股收益 17% 或以上的增長,這一卓越的業績記錄體現了奧萊利團隊以客戶服務為導向的企業文化、雙市場戰略以及我們對盈利性可持續增長的專注。

  • When we look at our sales performance for the quarter, we saw solid demand to start the quarter in October. November was a little slower on the DIY side of the business as we saw headwinds to our business in the time period around the Presidential election and due to the lack of cold weather across many of our winter-sensitive markets. However, with the onset of colder temperatures in December, we drove a stronger sales trend to finish the year.

    回顧本季銷售業績,10 月開局需求強勁。 11 月 DIY 業務略有放緩,這主要是由於總統大選前後以及許多對冬季需求較為敏感的市場缺乏寒冷天氣所致。然而,隨著 12 月氣溫下降,我們實現了強勁的銷售成長,並最終實現了全年銷售目標。

  • As we saw in the third quarter, the composition of our comparable store sales growth in the fourth quarter was very balanced with our professional and DIY sides of our business both contributing equally to our comparable store sales growth. For the full year, we saw steady increases in both comparable ticket average and transaction count with a slightly larger contribution from our professional ticket count; although our DIY ticket count growth continues to be solid. The increase in average ticket continues to be driven by the secular industry driver of parts complexity with no help from increases in selling price as reflation remains muted.

    正如我們在第三季所見,第四季同店銷售成長構成非常均衡,專業業務和DIY業務均對同店銷售成長做出了同等貢獻。全年來看,同店平均客單價和交易筆數均穩定成長,其中專業業務的客單價貢獻略高;儘管DIY業務的客單價成長依然穩健。平均客單價的成長持續受到零件複雜性這一長期產業因素的驅動,而由於通膨依然低迷,售價上漲並未起到推動作用。

  • On a category basis, we continue to see solid performance in key hard part categories such as brakes and chassis. With the onset of cold winter weather in December, our weather-related categories, such as batteries and HVAC performed very well. The lingering effects of last year's mild winter, which caused a gap through most of 2016 between the stores in weather-affected regions and the rest of the Company, have now ceased to exist as winter weather returned in December.

    從品類來看,煞車和底盤等關鍵零件品類持續保持穩健的表現。隨著12月寒冬的到來,電池和暖通空調等與天氣相關的品類表現尤其出色。去年暖冬的影響持續存在,導致2016年大部分時間裡,受天氣影響地區的門市與公司其他地區的門市業績存在差距。但隨著12月寒冬的到來,這種差距已不復存在。

  • For 2017, we are establishing comparable store sales guidance of 3% to 5%. Over the past three years, the improving health of the economy and increase in employment and the associated increase in commuter miles has been a key driver of the growth in miles driven, which are up 3% year-to-date through November 2016 after seeing an increase of 3% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2014.

    2017年,我們設定了同店銷售額成長3%至5%的預期。過去三年,經濟狀況的改善、就業人數的增加以及由此帶來的通勤里程的增加,一直是推動行駛里程成長的關鍵因素。截至2016年11月,行駛里程年增3%,而2015年和2014年的增幅分別為3%和1.7%。

  • In developing our guidance for 2017, we expect for these gains to be sustainable and to see additional positive tailwinds from a modest increase in miles driven as employment remains stable and the macroeconomic environment gradually improves. We expect to see continued growth in miles driven specifically in the population of out-of-warranty vehicles as better engineered and manufactured vehicles are capable of being reliably driven at higher mileages if reasonably maintained, which is being proven out in the continued stable low scrappage rates.

    在製定2017年業績指引時,我們預期這些成長動能將得以持續,並且隨著就業維持穩定和宏觀經濟環境逐步改善,行駛里程的適度成長將帶來額外的利好因素。我們預計,隨著車輛設計和製造流程的改進,如果維護得當,車輛行駛里程能夠可靠地達到更高的水平,尤其是在保固期外的車輛中,行駛里程將持續增長,而持續穩定的低報廢率也證明了這一點。

  • Our guidance expectations include an assumption that our customers will see some pressure from increases in gas prices. However, even with an anticipated increase, gas prices are still low in relative terms and we believe consumers will be able to readily adjust.

    我們的預期包含一項假設,即我們的客戶將面臨汽油價格上漲的一定壓力。然而,即使預期價格上漲,汽油價格目前仍處於相對較低的水平,我們相信消費者能夠迅速適應。

  • Finally, our comparable store sales expectations assume inflation will remain muted as we have seen for the past several years. To the extent that we begin to see inflation in our industry, our sales would benefit from rising selling prices. Against this stable industry backdrop, we are extremely confident in our team's commitment to providing the highest levels of service in our industry and in our ability to continue to gain marketshare.

    最後,我們對同店銷售的預期是基於通膨將保持溫和態勢,正如過去幾年我們所看到的。如果產業內開始出現通膨,我們的銷售額將受益於售價上漲。在這種穩定的行業背景下,我們對團隊致力於提供業內最高水準的服務以及我們持續擴大市場份額的能力充滿信心。

  • Our first quarter represents our most difficult comparison for the year on a two and three-year stacked basis as we compare against the 6.1% and 7.2% comparable store sales increases we generated in the first quarter of 2016 and 2015 respectively. Our first quarter is also typically the most volatile from a weather standpoint as January and February, our lowest volume months, can be impacted by the severity of winter weather.

    從過去兩年或三年的累積基數來看,我們第一季的業績是全年最難比較的,因為我們2016年和2015年第一季的同店銷售額分別成長了6.1%和7.2%。此外,從天氣角度來看,第一季通常也是波動最大的季度,因為1月和2月是我們的銷售淡季,容易受到冬季嚴寒天氣的影響。

  • December's severe winter weather drove strong demand for our products, but as we started of 2017, the milder January temperatures resulted in softer demand. However, we still have at least a month of winter left and the timing of the arrival of spring has a big impact on first-quarter results. As a result of these factors, we feel it is prudent to establish our comparable store sales guidance range at 2% to 4% for the first quarter.

    12月的嚴寒天氣推動了我們產品的強勁需求,但進入2017年,1月較為溫和的氣溫導致需求有所放緩。然而,冬季至少還有一個月的時間,春季的到來時間對第一季的業績影響巨大。有鑑於這些因素,我們認為將第一季同店銷售額成長預期設定在2%至4%之間是審慎之舉。

  • We are establishing our full-year 2017 operating profit guidance at a range of 20.1% to 20.5% of sales. The increase over the prior year is driven by gross margin improvements, which Tom will discuss more in detail in a moment, offset by some SG&A pressure, which Jeff will cover.

    我們預計2017年全年營業利益率將達到銷售額的20.1%至20.5%。與前一年相比,利潤率的成長主要得益於毛利率的提高(湯姆稍後會詳細討論),但同時也受到銷售、管理及行政費用(SG&A)壓力的影響(傑夫將對此進行闡述)。

  • For earnings per share, we are establishing our first-quarter guidance at $2.78 to $2.88 and for the full year, our guidance is $12.05 to $12.15. Our guidance includes all the shares repurchased through this call, but does not include any future share repurchases.

    對於每股收益,我們第一季的預期為2.78美元至2.88美元,全年預期為12.05美元至12.15美元。我們的預期包括透過本次電話會議回購的所有股份,但不包括任何未來的股份回購。

  • Before I finish up my prepared comments, I would like to again thank our team for another outstanding year in 2016. 2016 marks O'Reilly's 24th year as a public company and we have grown comparable store sales and set record revenue and operating income in each of those 24 years because of your consistent dedication to providing industry-leading service to all our customers every day and I am extremely proud of the job all of you do and I'm confident 2017 will be another record-setting year for Team O'Reilly. I will now turn the call over to Jeff Shaw. Jeff.

    在我結束準備好的演講之前,我想再次感謝我們的團隊在2016年取得的卓越成就。 2016年是歐萊利上市的第24個年頭,在這24年中,我們每年都實現了同店銷售額的增長,並創下了營收和營業利潤的新紀錄,這都歸功於你們始終如一地致力於為所有顧客提供行業領先的服務。我為你們所有人的工作感到無比自豪,我相信2017年歐萊利團隊將再創佳績。現在,我將把發言權交給傑夫·肖。傑夫。

  • Jeff Shaw - Co-President

    Jeff Shaw - Co-President

  • Thanks, Greg and good morning, everyone. I'd like to begin my remarks by also congratulating Team O'Reilly on another strong year in 2016. Once again, our team's focus on providing top-notch customer service allowed us to generate comparable store sales that led our industry. I'm especially pleased with our team's consistent execution of our dual market strategy. Your commitment to building and strengthening relationships with our professional customers allowed us to continue to win share and move up the call list, especially in our newer market areas while your outstanding service to our DIY customers also drove improved traffic and allowed us to gain more of our fair share on that side of the business.

    謝謝格雷格,大家早安。首先,我要祝賀奧萊利團隊在2016年又取得了驕人的成績。我們團隊始終專注於提供一流的客戶服務,這使得我們的同店銷售額再次領先於行業平均水平。我尤其對團隊始終如一地執行雙市場策略感到滿意。你們致力於與專業客戶建立和加強關係,這使我們能夠不斷贏得市場份額,並在客戶拜訪名單中名列前茅,尤其是在我們新開拓的市場區域。同時,你們為DIY客戶提供的卓越服務也帶來了客流量的提升,使我們在這一業務領域獲得了應有的份額。

  • Now we will spend a little time talking about our SG&A expense in 2016 and our outlook for 2017. For the fourth quarter, we levered SG&A by 47 basis points, driven by our strong sales results and expense control for the quarter. For the full year, we levered SG&A by 31 basis points, excluding a year-over-year benefit of 24 basis points as we calendared an adverse judgment in 2015 with the 2016 improvement also driven by comparable store sales results near the top end of our guidance range. Our increase in average SG&A per store for 2016 was 2.1%, which excludes the adverse judgment headwind in 2015.

    接下來,我們將簡單介紹一下我們2016年的銷售、管理及行政費用(SG&A)以及2017年的展望。第四季度,由於強勁的銷售業績和當季有效的費用控制,我們的SG&A槓桿率為47個基點。全年來看,我們的SG&A槓桿率為31個基點,其中不包括2015年因不利判決而產生的24個基點的同比收益,而2016年的改善也得益於同店銷售額接近我們預期範圍的上限。 2016年,我們每家店的平均SG&A增加了2.1%,這不包括2015年不利判決帶來的不利影響。

  • As we discussed last quarter, we manage our store-level expense to ensure we provide excellent customer service that develops and maintains long-term relationships. Given additional headwinds we faced this year from healthcare and credit card costs, we are pleased with the improved operating margin our team delivered in 2016.

    正如我們上個季度所討論的,我們透過控制門市層面的支出,確保提供卓越的客戶服務,從而建立並維護長期的客戶關係。鑑於今年醫療保健和信用卡成本帶來的額外挑戰,我們對團隊在2016年實現的營業利潤率提升感到滿意。

  • Looking forward to 2017, we expect per store SG&A to grow at 1.5% to 2% for the year as we expect to see continued pressure from increased wage rates, higher expected medical costs, additional investments in our internal information system capabilities and costs to convert the acquired bond stores. As we saw in 2016, this is our current plan, but it could change as we will continue to prudently manage SG&A expenses both up and down based on ongoing sales trends and the opportunities we see in the marketplace.

    展望2017年,我們預期單店銷售、管理及行政費用(SG&A)將成長1.5%至2%,主要原因是薪資水準上漲、預期醫療成本增加、內部資訊系統能力提升、收購保稅門市的改造費用等因素將持續構成成長壓力。正如我們在2016年所見,這是我們目前的計劃,但可能會根據銷售趨勢和市場機遇,審慎地調整SG&A費用,並可能進行相應調整。

  • For the quarter, we opened 69 net new stores bringing us to our goal of 210 new stores for the year. During 2016, we opened new stores in 39 different states and we continue to be very pleased with the performance of our new stores in both expansion and backfill markets. As we discussed on our last call, our plan is to open 190 net new stores in 2017, which is below our typical new store target as we plan to devote significant resources to converting the Bond stores we acquired in December.

    本季我們淨增69家門市,接近全年210家新店的目標。 2016年,我們在39個州開設了新店,我們對新店在擴張和填補市場的表現都非常滿意。正如我們在上次電話會議上討論的那樣,我們計劃在2017年淨增190家門店,這低於我們通常的新店目標,因為我們計劃投入大量資源來改造我們在12月份收購的Bond門店。

  • We will again spread our new store openings across our footprint with planned new store openings in 37 states. Our growth will be concentrated in our newer expansion markets in the Northeast, Florida, and the Mid-Atlantic supported by our recent DC additions in Devens, Massachusetts and Lakeland, Florida and our upcoming expansion in 2017 in Greensboro, North Carolina.

    我們將繼續擴大新店開幕規模,並計劃在37個州開設新店。我們的成長將集中在東北部、佛羅裡達州和中大西洋地區的新興市場,這得益於我們近期在馬薩諸塞州德文斯和佛羅裡達州萊克蘭新增的配送中心,以及我們即將於2017年在北卡羅來納州格林斯伯勒的擴張計劃。

  • In 2017, we will also see continued backfill in existing markets in Texas and the Great Lakes, supported by our newer DCs in San Antonio and Chicago, as well as several other markets across the country. Our organic growth plans in 2017 reflect the continuation of a consistent strategy we've deployed throughout our history. The key to opening great new stores and taking share in new markets is to develop strong store teams, which live the O'Reilly culture and provide excellent customer service and to support those teams with the critical tools they need to take care of their customers.

    2017年,我們將繼續在德州和五大湖區現有市場進行補貨,並藉助位於聖安東尼奧和芝加哥的新建配送中心以及全國其他多個市場的支持。我們2017年的有機成長計畫體現了我們一貫策略的延續。開設優質新店並在新市場取得份額的關鍵在於打造一支強大的門市團隊,讓他們實踐歐萊利的企業文化,提供卓越的客戶服務,並為他們提供服務客戶所需的關鍵工具。

  • We have the distribution capacity throughout our chain, which allows us to spread out our store growth across the country so we can take the time we need to put in the best team in place when we open a new store. The significant investments we've made in our expansive supply chain infrastructure also ensure our stores have the parts they need to compete in each of our markets.

    我們擁有覆蓋整個連鎖網路的強大配送能力,這使我們能夠將門市擴張分散到全國各地,從而在開設新店時有充足的時間組建最優秀的團隊。我們對龐大的供應鏈基礎設施進行了大量投資,也確保了我們的門市能夠獲得在各個市場競爭所需的零件。

  • From day one, every new store, even a store in a brand-new market area for O'Reilly, receives access to the broadest parts availability in the industry, including five night a week delivery from a distribution center usually supplemented with multiple daily deliveries from a DC or a hub store. It isn't easy or inexpensive to provide this level of service to our stores and it certainly isn't easy to replicate, but providing the best parts availability to our customers is built into our culture, as well as our business model.

    從開幕第一天起,每一家新店,即使是位於歐萊利全新市場區域的門市,都能獲得業內最全面的零件供應,包括每週五晚由配送中心送貨,通常還會輔以配送中心或樞紐門市的每日多次送貨。為門市提供如此高水準的服務並非易事,成本也不低,而且複製起來也絕非易事,但為客戶提供最佳的零件供應已融入我們的企業文化和商業模式之中。

  • Our ability to control expenses and efficiently execute our intensive supply chain strategy while still expanding our distribution network and adding new stores is a significant competitive advantage. As I have said in the past, there's a tremendous amount of work that goes into opening new stores and DCs and I'm proud of the great work our entire team does to support our growth.

    我們能夠在控製成本、高效執行密集型供應鏈策略的同時,不斷拓展分銷網絡、開設新店,這是我們一項顯著的競爭優勢。正如我之前所說,開設新店和配送中心需要投入大量精力,我為我們整個團隊為支持公司發展所付出的辛勤努力感到自豪。

  • Finally, I'd like to finish up today by providing an update on our previously announced acquisition of Bond Auto Parts. We closed on the acquisition in early December and we are very excited about the great professional parts people who have joined our team and the outstanding opportunity we have to grow on the solid foundations of success the Bond family has established in New England.

    最後,我想就我們之前宣布的收購邦德汽車配件公司一事作個最新進展匯報。我們已於12月初完成收購,非常高興有這麼多優秀的專業配件人員加入我們的團隊,也為我們有機會在邦德家族在新英格蘭地區奠定的堅實成功基礎上繼續發展壯大而感到無比興奮。

  • Over the course of our history, we've proven our ability to very effectively acquire existing store chains, implement our dual market strategy and instill the O'Reilly culture in the new store teams. One of the best results of these acquisitions have been the outstanding leaders we've added to our team. In fact, many of the members of our senior management team have joined O'Reilly as a result of a prior acquisition and we are confident that we are building a great team in the Northeast.

    縱觀我們的發展歷程,我們已證明自身有能力高效收購現有連鎖店,實施雙市場策略,並將歐萊利的企業文化融入新門市團隊。這些收購帶來的最佳成果之一,便是我們為團隊增添了許多傑出的領導者。事實上,我們許多高階管理團隊成員都是透過先前的收購加入歐萊利的,我們有信心在東北地區打造一支卓越的團隊。

  • I will close my comments by again congratulating Team O'Reilly on their strong performance in 2016. Our team continues to set the standard for our industry and our most difficult competition every year is outperforming the high bar we've set for ourselves. Every day, we must continue to provide unwavering customer service that surpasses expectations and continues to earn our customers' business. And I am confident we have the team in place to outhustle and outservice our competitors and take marketshare again in 2017. Now I will turn the call over to Tom.

    最後,我要再次祝賀奧萊利團隊在2016年取得的優異成績。我們的團隊持續引領業界潮流,而我們每年最大的競爭對手都在不斷超越我們自己設定的高標準。我們必須每天堅持提供一致的卓越客戶服務,超越客戶的期望,贏得客戶的持續信賴。我相信,我們擁有一支強大的團隊,能夠在2017年超越競爭對手,再次奪回市場份額。現在,我將把發言權交給湯姆。

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • Thanks, Jeff. I would also like to congratulate all of Team O'Reilly on another outstanding year. Now we will take a closer look at our fourth-quarter results and provide some additional guidance for 2017. For the quarter, sales increased $150 million comprised of a $91 million increase in comp store sales, a $59 million increase in non-comp store sales, a $1 million increase in non-comp non-store sales and a $1 million decrease from closed stores.

    謝謝傑夫。我也要祝賀奧萊利團隊全體成員又度過了出色的一年。現在我們將仔細分析第四季的業績,並對2017年做出一些展望。本季,銷售額成長了1.5億美元,其中同店銷售額成長了9,100萬美元,非同店銷售額成長了5,900萬美元,非同店非門市銷售額成長了100萬美元,而關閉門市造成的銷售額下降了100萬美元。

  • For 2017, we are establishing our full-year total revenue guidance at a range of $9.1 billion to $9.3 billion. For the quarter, gross margin was 53.1% of sales and improved 35 basis points over the prior year, in line with our expectations as we continue to realize the benefit of acquisition cost decreases we secured earlier in the year and the LIFO headwind was minimal in the fourth quarter. For the year, gross margin was 52.5% of sales, an improvement of 22 basis points over the prior year. This was right in the middle of our beginning of the year guidance of 52.3% to 52.7% as we benefited from better-than-expected acquisition improvements and leverage on distribution costs offset in part by full-year LIFO headwinds of $49 million, which exceeded the prior-year amount by $21 million.

    2017年全年總營收預期為91億美元至93億美元。本季毛利率為銷售額的53.1%,較上年同期提升35個基點,符合預期。這主要得益於我們持續受惠於年初實現的收購成本降低,且第四季後進先出法(LIFO)帶來的不利影響微乎其微。全年毛利率為銷售額的52.5%,較上年同期提升22個基點。這一數字恰好處於年初預期的52.3%至52.7%區間。我們受惠於超出預期的收購收益和分銷成本的槓桿效應,但部分被全年後進先出法(LIFO)帶來的4900萬美元不利影響所抵消,該影響較上年同期高出2100萬美元。

  • Looking forward to 2017, we expect gross margin to be in the range of 52.8% to 53.2% of sales. The improvement is a result of anniversarying the significant LIFO headwinds in 2016 with a lower expected LIFO headwind in 2017 while annualizing the acquisition improvements from the last year. We assume pricing in the industry will remain rational.

    展望2017年,我們預期毛利率將佔銷售額的52.8%至53.2%。這一增長得益於2016年後進先出法(LIFO)帶來的顯著不利影響被2017年預期較低的LIFO不利影響所抵消,以及去年收購帶來的收益按年調整。我們預計行業定價將保持合理水準。

  • Our effective tax rate for the year was 36.6% of pretax income, which was in line with our expectation. Looking at 2017, we expect our tax rate to be approximately 37% for the year with the increase driven by a lower amount of benefit from certain work tax credits. On a quarterly basis, we expect the rate to be relatively consistent with the expectation of the third quarter being slightly less as we adjust our tax reserves for the tooling of open tax periods. These estimates are subject to resolution of open audits and our success in qualifying pre-existing job tax credit programs.

    本年度實際稅率為稅前收入的36.6%,與預期相符。展望2017年,我們預計全年稅率約為37%,成長的主要原因是部分就業稅收抵免的收益減少。按季度來看,我們預計稅率將保持相對穩定,但第三季稅率預計會略低,因為我們需要調整未決稅期的稅務準備金。這些預估取決於未決審計的解決情況以及我們能否成功獲得現有就業稅收抵免計畫的資格。

  • For the year, free cash flow was $978 million, which was a $111 million increase from the prior year driven by increased income and a larger decrease in net inventory. Our guidance for 2017 is $930 million to $980 million, which, at the midpoint, is slightly below our strong 2016 results as we expect the decrease in our net inventory investment on a year-over-year basis will be less offset in part by our planned increase in net income.

    本年度自由現金流為9.78億美元,較上年增加1.11億美元,主要得益於營收成長及淨存貨大幅下降。我們對2017年的自由現金流預期為9.3億美元至9.8億美元,取中間值後略低於我們2016年的強勁業績,因為我們預計淨存貨投資同比下降的影響將被計劃中的淨收入增長部分抵消。

  • Moving to inventory per store. At the end of the quarter, it was $575,000, which was flat compared to the end of 2015. Our ongoing goal is to ensure we grow per store inventory at a lower rate than the comparable store sales growth we generate and we are pleased with the management of our inventory in 2016. However, as Greg discussed earlier, we finished the year on a strong sales trend, which put us in a favorable inventory position at the end of the year. Accordingly, for 2017, we expect our per-store inventory to increase by 1.5% to 2%. This growth rate is still below our comparable store sales growth estimate and we expect to continue our success of effectively deploying inventory in 2017.

    接下來談談單店庫存。本季末,單店庫存為57.5萬美元,與2015年底持平。我們始終致力於確保單店庫存增速低於同店銷售增速,並且我們對2016年的庫存管理感到滿意。然而,正如格雷格之前提到的,我們以強勁的銷售勢頭結束了這一年,這使得我們在年底的庫存狀況良好。因此,我們預計2017年單店庫存將成長1.5%至2%。這一增速仍低於我們對同店銷售額增速的預期,我們預計2017年將繼續保持高效率的庫存管理。

  • Our AP to inventory ratio finished the fourth quarter at 106%, which was an increase of 7% over the prior year as we benefited from incrementally improved terms and solid (technical difficulty) volumes. For the year ended 2017, we expect to see a marginal improvement in our AP to inventory ratio to approximately 107% as we incrementally improve our vendor terms, but face structural impediments to further significant increases in our AP percentage.

    我們的應付帳款與庫存比率在第四季末達到106%,較上年同期成長7%,這得益於條款的逐步改善和穩健的銷量(克服了技術難題)。我們預計,隨著供應商條款的逐步改善,2017年全年應付帳款與庫存比率將小幅改善至約107%,但由於結構性因素,應付帳款比率的進一步大幅增長將受到阻礙。

  • Capital expenditures for the year ended up at $476 million, which was right in the middle of our guidance. For 2017, we are forecasting CapEx at $470 million to $500 million. The minor increase is driven primarily by the conversion of the acquired Bond stores, increased investment in our over-the-road vehicle fleet and store technology infrastructure upgrades offset in part by a reduced number of new stores.

    本年度資本支出最終達到 4.76 億美元,與我們先前的預期基本一致。我們預計 2017 年資本支出將在 4.7 億美元至 5 億美元之間。此次小幅成長主要源自於收購的 Bond 門市的改造、對公路運輸車隊的投資增加以及門市技術基礎設施的升級,但部分成長被新店數量減少所抵消。

  • Moving onto debt, we finished the fourth quarter with an adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.63 times, still well below our targeted range of 2 to 2.25 times. We continue to believe that our stated range is appropriate for our business and will move into this range when the timing is appropriate. We continue to execute our share repurchase program and for the calendar year 2016, we repurchased 5.7 million shares for an aggregate investment of $1.5 billion at an average share price of $264.21.

    關於負債方面,我們第四季末的調整後負債與EBITDA比率為1.63倍,仍遠低於我們設定的2至2.25倍的目標區間。我們仍然認為,我們設定的目標區間適合我們的業務,並將在適當的時機將債務水準調整至該區間。我們繼續執行股票回購計劃,2016年全年,我們以平均每股264.21美元的價格回購了570萬股股票,總投資額達15億美元。

  • Since the inception of our buyback program through yesterday's earnings release, we've repurchased 57.9 million shares for an aggregate investment of $7.1 billion at an average share price of $122.91. We continue to view our buyback program as an effective means of returning available cash to our shareholders after we take advantage of opportunities to invest in our business at a higher rate of return and we will continue to prudently execute our program with an emphasis on maximizing long-term returns for our shareholders.

    自我們啟動股票回購計畫至昨日發布財報以來,我們已回購5,790萬股股票,總投資額達71億美元,平均每股價格為122.91美元。我們始終認為,在把握機會以更高回報率投資公司業務後,股票回購計畫是向股東返還可用現金的有效途徑。我們將繼續審慎執行該計劃,重點在於最大限度地提高股東的長期回報。

  • Finally, I would like to once again thank the entire O'Reilly team for their continued dedication to the Company's success. Congratulations on another outstanding year. This concludes our prepared comments and at this time, I'd like to ask Richard, the operator, to return to the line and we will be happy to answer your questions.

    最後,我要再次感謝奧萊利團隊全體成員為公司的成功所做的持續貢獻。恭喜大家又度過了輝煌的一年。以上就是我們準備好的發言,現在請接線生理查德回到接線台,我們將樂意回答各位的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Matt Fassler, Goldman Sachs.

    謝謝。 (操作說明)馬特·法斯勒,高盛集團。

  • Matt Fassler - Analyst

    Matt Fassler - Analyst

  • My first question relates to tax refunds and the cadence thereof. Is this something that you think may have started to impact your business quarter-to-date at this stage and is your sense that any changes in timing are essentially resolved by the end of the March quarter?

    我的第一個問題與退稅及其節奏有關。您認為這是否已經開始對貴公司本季迄今的業務產生影響?您是否認為任何時間上的變化都將在三月底前基本解決?

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • Yes, I think it is something that late in the quarter so far has had some impact because the early filers, which are generally the most economically incentivized customers to get their money as quick as they can, that we would have seen some benefit in that last year towards the end of January, first of February and we have not seen that yet because of the delay. I think most of that trues up before the end of the quarter, but I don't really know for sure, but I would suspect that most of it trues up by the end of the quarter.

    是的,我認為本季末的延遲確實產生了一些影響,因為那些提前申報的客戶(他們通常是最有經濟動機盡快拿到錢的客戶)原本應該在去年1月底2月初就看到一些收益,但由於延遲,我們至今還沒有看到。我認為大部分影響會在本季末得到解決,但我不能完全確定,不過我估計大部分問題會在季度末得到解決。

  • Matt Fassler - Analyst

    Matt Fassler - Analyst

  • Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. This relates to LIFO. It sounds, Tom, like LIFO was I think you said negligible in Q4. Obviously, it's had some impact in understanding the cadence of gross margin pretty consistently over the past several years. As you think about the outlook for 2017, based on what you see for pricing, based on raw material costs, should this be close to a zero for the year or more like close to what we had seen in prior years ex that bulge that you had in early 2016?

    明白了。還有一個後續問題。這和後進先出法(LIFO)有關。湯姆,你之前說過,第四季後進先出法的影響可以忽略不計。顯然,在過去幾年裡,它對毛利率的波動產生了一定的影響。展望2017年,根據你對定價和原物料成本的判斷,你認為毛利率全年會接近零,還是會像往年那樣接近,例如2016年初的那次激增?

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • We still have a few opportunities that we are working on and a couple of them are pretty significant that we know about right now. Our expectation is that we are going to see be about half as much LIFO headwind in 2017 as we saw in 2016.

    我們目前仍在推進一些項目,其中有幾個項目相當重要。我們預計2017年後進先出法(LIFO)面臨的阻力將約為2016年的一半。

  • Matt Fassler - Analyst

    Matt Fassler - Analyst

  • That's comparing against 2016 as reported with those couple of big numbers?

    這是與2016年公佈的那幾個重要數字相比嗎?

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Matt Fassler - Analyst

    Matt Fassler - Analyst

  • Great. Okay, thank you so much, guys.

    太好了。非常感謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lasser, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的麥可·拉塞爾。

  • Michael Lasser - Analyst

    Michael Lasser - Analyst

  • So your guidance assumes that comp trends will accelerate as you move out of the first quarter. Aside from the weather and slightly easy compares and maybe some of the tax issues, is there anything else that you see that should drive the acceleration? There's going to be some snow in the Northeast in the next day or two, but if this is the last blast of winter, how long will that act as an overhang for the industry?

    所以您的預測是基於這樣的假設:隨著第一季的結束,同業比較趨勢將會加速。除了天氣、相對較低的基數以及一些稅務問題之外,您認為還有哪些因素會推動這項加速?未來一兩天東北地區會有一些降雪,但如果這是冬季的最後一場暴雪,那麼它會對整個行業造成多久的負面影響?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • We had some pretty good winter weather in December, so I don't think that the lack of winter, if we don't have much more winter weather, would be as potentially impacting as it was related to last winter. So we would expect it to be able to more of a normalized spring and summer related to winter weather. But, like we said, we still have a month of winter to go, so it's yet to be seen, but there are some pretty mild trends going on.

    12月份的冬季天氣相當不錯,所以我認為,如果冬季天氣不再像去年冬天那麼嚴重,那麼今年的冬季氣候應該不會像去年冬天那樣影響巨大。因此,我們預計今年的春季和夏季天氣會更加正常,冬季天氣也會相對溫和。但是,正如我們所說,冬季還有一個月才結束,所以最終結果如何還有待觀察,不過目前來看,天氣趨勢確實比較溫和。

  • Our expectation is that the fundamentals of our industry, our confidence in our ability to continue the cadence that we are on from a comp store sales perspective under more normalized conditions where we are not comparing to these tax delays and stuff like that that we are in, that we will get back to a comp store range that would be in that 3% to 5% range and that we feel confident at this point that for the year that we would end the year in that range.

    我們預計,在更正常的情況下,我們行業的基本面,以及我們對自身能力的信心(從同店銷售的角度來看),即在不再受稅收延遲等因素影響的情況下,我們將能夠繼續保持目前的節奏,同店銷售額將恢復到 3% 到 5% 的水平,並且我們目前有信心,今年年底我們將達到這個水平。

  • Michael Lasser - Analyst

    Michael Lasser - Analyst

  • And my follow-up question is, Greg, you've been around the industry for a long time and there's, obviously, a lot of attention on some of the emerging competition within the space. What measures are you watching to ensure that the marginal demand for the industry, particularly on the DIY side, isn't moving online and becoming more sensitive to price transparency? If that becomes a risk, how do you expect to see it?

    我的後續問題是,格雷格,你在這個行業待了很久,顯然,大家都很關注這個領域內一些新興的競爭對手。你正在關注哪些措施,以確保產業(尤其是DIY領域)的邊際需求不會轉移到線上,並且對價格透明度更加敏感?如果這成為一種風險,你預計會如何應對?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Well, I've been a little surprised by the interest that there's been in a transition to online recently. We've not seen much in our business that's led us to be very concerned about it, but we have read a lot of the reports and I saw the thing in the New York Post and stuff like that. There really hasn't been a lot changed on our end. Our best barometer of that is we have a lot of field guys that me and Jeff and Greg and Tom and every one on our management team know very well and we encourage them to be outspoken with us about competitive pressures that they feel and we have just not seen a change in that competitive pressure. Customers would tell you or you would hear things from them about their concerns, things like that.

    嗯,最近大家對線上轉型表現出的濃厚興趣確實讓我有點意外。就我們公司而言,目前還沒有出現什麼特別令人擔憂的情況,但我們確實閱讀了很多相關報道,例如我在《紐約郵報》上看到的那篇。就我們自身而言,並沒有太大的改變。我們最好的判斷標準是,我們有很多第一線員工,我和傑夫、格雷格、湯姆以及我們管理團隊的每一位成員都非常了解他們,我們也鼓勵他們暢所欲言地告訴我們他們感受到的競爭壓力,而我們目前並沒有看到這種競爭壓力有任何變化。客戶也會直接告訴我們,或者我們會從他們那裡聽到一些關於他們擔憂的事情。

  • We are in a business, and I don't want to go into a lot of detail about the things that we bring to the table that maybe an online retailer wouldn't, but these online retailers have been around for a long time and I realize that Amazon is the strongest and the best run. I, obviously, have a lot of respect for them and I am a customer for household items and other things. But one of the things that -- or some of the things that are a barrier to entry for these guys are that we are in a very technical business. Let's talk about the DIY side for a minute. When a customer has a problem with their car, whether it is a -- their car won't start, let's say. They don't really know what's wrong; they know it could be either a battery, or alternator or a starter motor. If they can jumpstart their car or somehow get it to our store, we are going to be able to tell them what's wrong. We will go out of the store and test it. We will help them install a battery. We will get them lined up with a technician to help solve their problem if they can't. Many times their problems are what I call drivability problems. They are related to sensors or emission system things that cause the check engine light to come on or a variety of things.

    我們身處一個行業,我不想過多贅述我們提供的、其他線上零售商可能無法提供的服務,但這些線上零售商已經存在很長時間了,我也意識到亞馬遜是最強大、運作最好的。顯然,我非常尊重他們,我自己也是他們的顧客,購買家居用品和其他商品。但對他們來說,進入這個行業的一個障礙是──或者說,我們身處一個技術性很強的產業。我們不妨談談DIY方面。當顧客的汽車出現問題時,比如說,他們的車無法啟動。他們並不清楚具體原因;他們知道可能是電池、發電機或起動馬達的問題。如果他們能夠啟動汽車,或設法把車開到我們的店裡,我們就能告訴他們問題所在。我們會到店外測試。我們會幫他們安裝電池。如果他們自己無法解決問題,我們會安排技術人員協助他們。很多時候,他們的問題都屬於我所謂的駕駛性能問題。這些問題通常與感測器或排放系統有關,會導致引擎故障燈亮起或其他各種故障。

  • We have highly experienced trained professionals in our stores to help them solve these problems. Many times, customers, when they come in to buy a part, they don't really know what the part is called. They think it's bad, it looks bad. We will test it for them. We may lead them down another path. It's a highly technical business. And then on top of all that, learning and developing the science to know what inventory you need in different markets takes time and experience and that's the reason that our Company -- one of the reasons we've done so well is because we've been so good at that. Plus there's almost 36,000 part stores in the US. It's very convenient to get parts and there is a high immediacy of need when you have a car problem. Not that there aren't accessories and other things that can wait and do.

    我們門市配備了經驗豐富的專業人員,可以幫助顧客解決這些問題。很多時候,顧客來店購買零件時,其實並不知道零件的名稱。他們覺得零件壞了,或者看起來有問題。我們會幫他們檢測,並可能推薦其他合適的零件。這是一個技術性很強的行業。此外,了解不同市場所需的庫存量需要時間和經驗,而這正是我們公司——我們之所以能如此成功的原因之一——在於我們在這方面做得非常出色。而且,美國有近36,000家零件商店。購買零件非常方便,而且當汽車出現問題時,零件的需求往往非常迫切。當然,有些配件和其他東西可以稍後再買。

  • On the professional side, which there's been some talk about what an online retailer can do on the professional side, and gosh, I just see that so difficult for them to penetrate when I think about the relationships that we have with our professional customers and the dependency that they have on us to provide them training and guidance and access to tools and the equipment to keep their tools running and their equipment running and how quickly they need parts and how if they are not sure maybe of a model year change where a car might take one of two parts, we will send them both, then bring the other one back. We will match up parts for them. The list goes on and on and on of the things that we do. Plus we are making a distribution center inventory available to them in many markets, six, eight times a day, which is -- I think that the online retailers, while they'll, as they have proven over the years, they will continue to take a little bit of marketshare here and there. I don't see them nearly as one of our most prominent competitors.

    在專業領域,有人討論過網路零售商能做什麼,但說實話,我覺得他們很難打入這個領域。想想我們和專業客戶的關係,想想他們依賴我們為他們提供培訓、指導,以及工具和設備,以確保他們的工具和設備正常運作。他們急需零件,例如,如果他們不確定某個車型年份的零件是否需要更換,我們會把兩種零件都寄給他們,然後再把另一種零件寄回來。我們會幫他們配對零件。我們提供的服務數不勝數。此外,我們在許多市場每天六到八次向他們提供配送中心的庫存。我認為,雖然線上零售商這些年來已經證明了他們會繼續搶佔一些市場份額,但我並不認為他們會是我們最主要的競爭對手。

  • Michael Lasser - Analyst

    Michael Lasser - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Carolina Jolly, Gabelli.

    卡羅琳娜·喬利,加貝利。

  • Carolina Jolly - Analyst

    Carolina Jolly - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my call. After that question, I really wanted to ask if you have any data around where you are taking share because it really seems like you are able to take share. And if you can direct any of that comment to the do it for me versus the do it yourself segment.

    感謝您接聽我的電話。問完那個問題後,我想請教您是否有關於市場佔有率成長的數據,因為您似乎確實能夠取得不錯的市場佔有率。另外,能否請您談談您提到的「代客服務」和「自助服務」這兩個細分市場的情況?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Well, I think the do it for me business is growing a little faster than, on a macro basis, than the DIY business and considering that we are comping about the same on both, I would speculate that we are gaining a little more share on the DIY side right now than we would be on the do it for me side. Geographically, we perform well in many markets. Generally speaking, where we are growing the fastest are in our expansion markets like in the Southeast and the Northeast in areas like that where our stores are newer and we have more to gain from competitors who have business already and we are in there trying to get what business we can. So I would say in those markets is where we are gaining most of the marketshare.

    嗯,我認為從宏觀角度來看,「代客服務」業務的成長速度略快於「自己動手做」業務。考慮到我們在這兩個領域的競爭格局大致相同,我推測我們目前在「自己動手做」領域的市佔率成長可能略高於「代客服務」領域。從地理上看,我們在許多市場都表現出色。總的來說,我們成長最快的地區是我們正在擴張的市場,例如東南部和東北部。在這些地區,我們的門市比較新,可以從已經擁有一定業務的競爭對手那裡獲得更多收益,而我們正在努力爭取盡可能多的業務。因此,我認為我們在這些市場中獲得了大部分市場份額。

  • Carolina Jolly - Analyst

    Carolina Jolly - Analyst

  • Thanks. And just to follow up on that, a lot of the data that has also been spoken about is that you have better fill rates. I don't know if you are able to speak to that, but are you also able to gain share through those better fill rates? And previously you had spoken about, I guess, picking up do it for me talent. Do you have any comments around that?

    謝謝。另外,我想跟進一下,之前提到的許多數據都顯示你們的訂單完成率更高。不知道您是否能就此談談,但您是否也透過更高的訂單完成率獲得了市場份額?還有,您之前好像提到招募「代勞型」人才。您對此有什麼看法嗎?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Yes, I think we have an incredible fill rate. Our business is built around this high availability model, making sure that we have a lot of SKUs available on a same-day basis multiple times a day and I think we are the best in our industry at making a wide array of parts available to our customers and it's one of the reasons that our Company has done as well as it has over the years and this goes way, way back. This is not a new thing. I think when the O'Reilly family was running the business as a small company, they quickly recognized that if you have a part and you can get it to the customer quicker than everybody else that you are going to win.

    是的,我認為我們的供貨率非常高。我們的業務模式就是圍繞著這種高可用性展開的,確保我們每天多次提供大量SKU的當日供貨。我認為我們在為客戶提供種類繁多的零件方面是業內最佳,這也是我們公司多年來取得如此成就的原因之一,而且這種模式由來已久。這並非什麼新鮮事。我認為,當歐萊利家族還在經營這家小公司時,他們很快就意識到,如果你擁有所需的零件,並且能夠比其他任何人都更快地將其送到客戶手中,你就能贏得市場。

  • When it comes to talent and recruiting, the second part of your question was about that, I think that we are a desired employer. I think that people that know parts and are good parts people, they like to work for us. We equip them with the tools that they need to be successful and one of the most important tools that we have put them with is this availability that we are talking about. It's hard to be a great parts person if you don't have access to the parts and we put our professional parts people in a position to where they have excellent access to a wide array of parts to take care of our professional customers and our DIY customers.

    關於人才和招聘,也就是您問題的第二部分,我認為我們是一家理想的雇主。我認為那些了解零件並且是優秀的零件專家的人都喜歡在我們這裡工作。我們為他們配備了成功所需的各種工具,其中最重要的工具之一就是我們剛才提到的這種便捷的零件供應。如果無法取得所需的零件,就很難成為優秀的零件專家。我們確保專業的零件專家能夠方便地取得各種零件,以便更好地服務我們的專業客戶和DIY客戶。

  • Carolina Jolly - Analyst

    Carolina Jolly - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Baker, Deutsche Bank.

    麥克貝克,德意志銀行。

  • Mike Baker - Analyst

    Mike Baker - Analyst

  • Wanted to ask you a couple questions on pricing. First, you said you are not expecting or don't have any inflation in your comp estimates, but what about inflation on oil and other liquids and lubricants? Shouldn't we expect some inflation there and if so, will that help incrementally to your comp guidance?

    關於定價,我想問您幾個問題。首先,您說您的同業估值中沒有預期或考慮任何通貨膨脹,但是石油、其他液體和潤滑油的價格通膨呢?我們是否應該預期這些價格會有一些上漲?如果是這樣,這是否會對您的同業估值預期產生一定影響?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Tom will take that.

    湯姆會接受的。

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • We are not very good at projecting our commodity costs. To the extent that we do see some increase, we would expect to see some increases as oil prices go up and we have some LIFO headwinds from reducing acquisition costs on hard parts that we would expect to net out, but we don't anticipate seeing a wide enough effect on products to have inflation help drive our comparable store sales this year.

    我們不太擅長預測大宗商品成本。如果確實出現成本上漲,我們預期油價上漲會帶來一些影響,同時由於我們降低了零件的採購成本,後進先出法(LIFO)也會帶來一些不利影響,這些影響預計會相互抵消。但我們預期這些影響不會對產品產生足夠大的影響,不足以推動今年的同店銷售成長。

  • Mike Baker - Analyst

    Mike Baker - Analyst

  • And so I guess similarly there wouldn't then be much impact on your gross margins from that type of inflation?

    所以我想,這種通貨膨脹應該不會對你們的毛利率造成太大影響吧?

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Mike Baker - Analyst

    Mike Baker - Analyst

  • Okay. Then on the other side as it still relates to pricing, I hear what you're saying about online competitors perhaps not taking a lot of marketshare, but do you still think that, with the price visibility, that's increased now from some of these competitors that there is no pricing pressure? I understand that consumers need to come into your stores for the advice and whatnot, but do you expect to see consumers come in with pricing from Amazon and insist you guys match that price?

    好的。關於價格方面,我明白您說的線上競爭對手可能沒有佔據太多市場份額,但您是否仍然認為,隨著價格透明度的提高(尤其是部分競爭對手的價格),價格壓力已經消失了?我理解消費者需要到實體店諮詢等等,但您是否預料到消費者會拿著亞馬遜的價格來要求您匹配呢?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • I think that, over time, as price transparency on equivalent product continues to increase that that's likely to happen. I think it happens some today and we equip our team members with how to deal with that. We don't let a customer that needs a part leave our store without that part in their hand.

    我認為,隨著同類產品價格透明度的不斷提高,這種情況很可能會逐漸發生。我認為目前這種情況已經有所發生,我們也對團隊成員進行了相應的應對訓練。我們絕對不會讓需要某件零件的顧客空手而歸。

  • Mike Baker - Analyst

    Mike Baker - Analyst

  • So at this point, is there any hit from that incorporated in your gross margin outlook or is it too small to matter now? So how should we think about that ongoing?

    那麼,目前來看,這是否會對您的毛利率預期造成影響?或者影響太小,現在還無關緊要?我們該如何看待這個問題?

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • It's too small to matter now.

    現在這件事太小了,無關緊要。

  • Mike Baker - Analyst

    Mike Baker - Analyst

  • Okay. Appreciate the color.

    好的。欣賞一下這顏色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan Wewer, Raymond James.

    Dan Wewer,Raymond James。

  • Dan Wewer - Analyst

    Dan Wewer - Analyst

  • Greg, the greenfield store growth rate slows in 2017. Is that a signal that O'Reilly wants to maintain the flexibility or the capacity to make additional acquisitions such as Bond in the upcoming year?

    格雷格,2017 年綠地門市的成長速度放緩。這是否意味著 O'Reilly 希望保持靈活性或能力,以便在未來一年進行更多收購,例如收購 Bond?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Well, really moving to 190 was simply to better accommodate the integration of Bond with the teams that we have to put in new stores. But, as you know, Dan, we are opportunistic and somewhat aggressive right now with looking at companies that we feel like would be good fits for us and there's several of the smaller regional players out there that many would fit well in our geography and fit well in our business. So, yes, we are in a good position to continue our strategy of acquiring companies that make sense for us in 2017 and beyond.

    其實,搬到190號大樓主要是為了更好地整合Bond與我們新店團隊的合作。但是,丹,你也知道,我們現在比較積極主動,會去尋找那些我們認為適合我們的公司。市面上有許多規模較小的區域性企業,它們在地理分佈和業務方面都很契合我們的市場。所以,是的,我們有能力在2017年及以後繼續推進收購策略,收購那些對我們有意義的公司。

  • Dan Wewer - Analyst

    Dan Wewer - Analyst

  • I know during the past couple of years you've talked about the difficulty in securing real estate in the Northeast. Has that eased up any for you?

    我知道過去幾年您一直談到在東北地區購置房產的困難。現在這種情況有緩解嗎?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Well, it's a challenging real estate market. There is no open retail lots just waiting for us to come along, so you have to be pretty creative in the way you put in new stores. Then, of course, cost is a factor, so you have to be a little more confident sometimes in the amount of volume that you can do in a location if you're going to take on the rent that it sometimes takes up there.

    嗯,現在的房地產市場競爭激烈。沒有現成的零售地塊等著我們開,所以開設新店一定很有創意。當然,成本也是一個重要因素,所以如果你要承擔那裡的高昂租金,你必須對某個地段的營業額更有信心。

  • But I think we have learned a lot as we've explored the Northeast and bought real estate and I think our position up there is incrementally improving, but no question real estate is tough up there. It makes it a little more advantageous for us to consider some of the acquisitions that we could potentially make up there as exemplified with what we did with VIP and now with Bond.

    但我認為,隨著我們探索東北地區併購置房產,我們學到了很多。我認為我們在那裡的地位正在逐步提升,但毫無疑問,那裡的房地產市場競爭激烈。正因如此,我們才更有理由考慮在那裡進行一些潛在的收購,就像我們之前收購VIP以及現在收購Bond一樣。

  • Dan Wewer - Analyst

    Dan Wewer - Analyst

  • And just a follow-up question. The vehicle miles driven data the last couple of years has shown a lot more strength in the Western markets than in the Upper Midwest and the Northeast and that seems to be correlating with industry sales trends as well. Would you expect a reversion to the mean where the Upper Midwest and Northeast industry trends would improve relative to the West going forward?

    還有一個後續問題。過去幾年的車輛行駛里程數據顯示,西部市場的表現遠強於中西部北部和東北部地區,而且這似乎也與行業銷售趨勢相符。您是否預期未來會出現均值回歸,即中西部北部和東北部的行業趨勢相對於西部地區會有所改善?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Dan, I don't know. It's always tough to determine the drivers of miles driven differences between regions of the country. Tom or Jeff, I don't know if you guys have an answer to that, but I don't really have a good opinion on that.

    丹,我不知道。要確定不同地區行駛里程差異的驅動因素總是很困難。湯姆或傑夫,我不知道你們有沒有答案,但我確實對此沒有好的看法。

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • What we would tell you is that the accuracy of that data, while we think it directionally is a very good barometer for us, the regional exact miles are -- a lot of estimations go into that calculation. From a long-term perspective, I think it has more to do with where is the population growth in the US and that ultimately will drive the miles driven differences in regions.

    我們想告訴您的是,雖然我們認為這些數據在方向上是一個很好的參考指標,但具體的區域里程數——因為計算中包含了很多估算——的準確性還有待提高。從長遠來看,我認為這更取決於美國人口成長的分佈情況,而人口成長最終將導致各地區里程數的差異。

  • Dan Wewer - Analyst

    Dan Wewer - Analyst

  • That's a good point. Thank you.

    說得有道理。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alan Rifkin, BTIG.

    艾倫·里夫金,BTIG。

  • Alan Rifkin - Analyst

    Alan Rifkin - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Tom, could you maybe provide a little bit of color with respect to the free cash flow guidance for 2017, why, even at the high end, that would be flat versus 2016? Why would it not continue to grow in 2017 and beyond? Then I have a follow-up, please.

    非常感謝。湯姆,您能否詳細解釋2017年的自由現金流預期?為什麼即使按照最高預期,也只能跟2016年持平?為什麼2017年及以後不會繼續成長?我還有一個後續問題,請問。

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • The key difference there is just the expected year-over-year increase in our AP to inventory ratio that we saw 7% increase in 2016 over 2015 and our expectation is that, while we will increase it somewhat, we won't see that 7% increase. Therefore we won't drive as much reduction in working capital.

    關鍵差異在於我們預期應付帳款與存貨比率將較去年同期上漲。 2016年該比率較2015年增長了7%,而我們預計今年雖然該比率會略有上升,但不會達到7%的增幅。因此,我們不會大幅削減營運資本。

  • Alan Rifkin - Analyst

    Alan Rifkin - Analyst

  • Okay. And then my second question, if you can maybe provide, Greg, an update on what's happening in South Florida, how many stores you have there today, how many you forecast of the 17 openings? And then also as a wider picture, certainly, Jeff and Greg's promotions are obviously well-deserved and congratulations, gentlemen, but, Greg, does this signal any intention on your part to do anything different with your longer-term career at O'Reilly?

    好的。那麼我的第二個問題是,格雷格,您能否提供南佛羅裡達的最新情況?你們目前在那裡有多少家店?您預計17家新店開幕後會有多少家?另外,從更宏觀的角度來看,傑夫和格雷格的晉升當然是實至名歸,恭喜兩位先生!但是,格雷格,這是否意味著您在奧萊利的長期職業發展中有什麼新的計劃?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Okay, I will answer that question first, then talk about Florida. It really is recognition of the leadership roles that these two individuals play in our Company. They do a great job. I will be 57 years old, so I won't be CEO forever, but I have no immediate plans to not be CEO. And when that time comes, it will be announced and we will do it the right way. I don't think that long term I can't foresee a time that I wouldn't be involved with the Company right now. So we are talking down the road if anything were to happen. So I wouldn't relate anything that we've done here with Greg and Jeff to something like that.

    好的,我先回答這個問題,然後再談談佛羅裡達的事。這確實是對這兩位在我們公司中發揮的領導作用的認可。他們做得非常出色。我今年57歲了,​​所以不可能永遠擔任CEO,但我目前沒有卸任的計畫。到時候,我們會正式宣布,並且會以適當的方式進行。從長遠來看,我認為我目前不會退出公司。所以我們討論的是未來可能發生的情況。因此,我不會把我們和Greg、Jeff一起做的任何事情與那件事聯繫起來。

  • In Florida, today, we have 163 stores, most of which are supplied out of Orlando. We continue to progress South. We've got stores bumping up against Fort Lauderdale and Miami, Fort Myers. So our expansion in that area has been significant and very successful. We continue to have great success with the new stores we've opened down there. We've been very fortunate for some time now to have had a great team of auto parts guys down there that are able to recruit good auto parts guys and we have some strong regional competitors down there that we feel like we've done well against. So we continue to grow and have continued expansion plans down there this year. A material part of our new store openings this year will be in Florida.

    目前,我們在佛羅裡達州擁有163家門市,其中大部分由奧蘭多供貨。我們正持續向南擴張,門市已遍佈勞德代爾堡、邁阿密和邁爾斯堡附近地區。因此,我們在該地區的擴張規模顯著且非常成功。新開的門市也持續取得巨大成功。我們很幸運,長期以來在當地擁有一支優秀的汽車零件團隊,他們能夠招募到優秀的汽車配件人才。雖然當地也有一些強大的區域競爭對手,但我們認為自己已經取得了不錯的成績。因此,我們將繼續發展壯大,並計劃今年繼續在該地區擴張。今年新開店中,很大一部分將位於佛羅裡達州。

  • Alan Rifkin - Analyst

    Alan Rifkin - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you very much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Basham, Wedbush.

    Seth Basham,Wedbush。

  • Seth Basham - Analyst

    Seth Basham - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot. Good morning and congratulations to Jeff and to Greg. My question is around omnichannel. You mentioned that you're ramping up some investments in information systems. Can you speak more broadly about where those are and what your omnichannel strategy is going forward?

    非常感謝。早上好,恭喜傑夫和格雷格。我的問題是關於全渠道的。您提到正在加大對資訊系統的投資。能否更詳細地談談這些投資的重點以及您未來的全通路策略?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Tom, do you want to take that?

    湯姆,你想拿嗎?

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • Sure. When we look at our investments in IT, it's across a broad spectrum of things. We are going to launch a new website here beginning of the second quarter, which is the step in the right direction for us from an omnichannel standpoint. Our real goal is to make sure that we have a seamless transaction however our customers would like to start the transaction. Often in our business, it starts with looking up a part online, finding out what you might need, what the availability is, making sure that we can transition the start of that transaction and pull it up in the store, make sure we identify the customer, make sure we can maintain visibility of what type of vehicles they work on and really maintain that connection with the customer. As Greg talked about earlier, our customers are primarily coming to our store for advice, so if they start online, we want to be able to continue that transaction in the store.

    當然。我們在IT方面的投資涵蓋範圍很廣。我們將在第二季初推出一個全新的網站,從全通路的角度來看,這是我們朝著正確方向邁出的一步。我們的真正目標是確保無論客戶選擇何種方式開始交易,都能獲得流暢的體驗。在我們的業務中,通常情況下,客戶會先在線查找所需的零件,了解零件的庫存情況,然後我們確保能夠順利地將交易流程轉移到實體店,並識別客戶身份,了解他們維修的車輛類型,從而真正與客戶保持聯繫。正如Greg之前提到的,我們的客戶來店主要是為了尋求建議,因此,如果他們從線上開始,我們希望能夠在實體店繼續完成交易。

  • Seth Basham - Analyst

    Seth Basham - Analyst

  • That's helpful. As a percentage of your business, where is it now and where do you think it will be in five years in terms of the transactions that are started online?

    這很有幫助。就您目前的業務量而言,線上交易佔比是多少?您認為五年後線上交易量會佔比是多少?

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • It continues to be a relatively small portion where right now we are tracking primarily order online pick up in store. Our opportunity there is to better tie when our customers are looking at availability and looking up parts and getting information on how to repair their vehicles -- obviously, it's primarily the DIY side -- and making sure we maintain that data for when they come into the store. Right now, if they don't actually transact online, we are not capturing that when they walk in the store. But a high percentage of our customers are investigating their fixes online.

    目前,我們主要追蹤的是線上訂購到店自提的訂單,而這部分訂單佔比仍然相對較小。我們的機會在於更好地了解顧客何時查看庫存、查找零件以及獲取車輛維修資訊(顯然,這主要涉及DIY維修),並確保在他們到店時也能獲取到這些數據。目前,如果顧客沒有在線上完成交易,我們就無法記錄他們到店時的相關資訊。但實際上,我們很大一部分顧客都會在線上尋找維修方案。

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • And Seth, if I can just add something to that. A pretty material part of our B2B business is transacted online and has been for some time. We were one of the first companies to go to an online type of ordering platform back pre-Internet. We did it using what they call ASCI terminals back in the day at 1200 baud modems and it worked for us. And so we've continued to build on that and today, a material part of our B2B business is transacted online.

    塞思,我再補充一點。我們B2B業務中相當大一部分交易都是在線上進行的,而且這種情況已經持續了一段時間。早在網路普及之前,我們就是最早一批採用線上訂購平台的公司之一。當時我們用的是所謂的ASCI終端,搭配1200波特率的數據機,效果很好。所以我們一直在不斷發展,如今,我們B2B業務中相當一部分交易都是在線上進行的。

  • Seth Basham - Analyst

    Seth Basham - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you, guys.

    明白了。謝謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley.

    西蒙古特曼,摩根士丹利。

  • Simeon Gutman - Analyst

    Simeon Gutman - Analyst

  • Good morning and congratulations, Greg and Jeff. My question first for Greg, there's been a lot of noise around the segment lately. We talked about online. I think tax was mentioned. You mentioned weather. I feel like a lot of the noise is louder outside of the industry and I think your guidance projects calm and steadiness. I just wanted to get a sense is there anything we are missing. Underlying trends seem fine. You talked about miles driven staying healthy. Can you assess current state, anything you haven't said already?

    早上好,恭喜Greg和Jeff。我先問Greg一個問題,最近這個領域有很多傳言。我們聊到了網絡,好像也提到了稅收,你還提到了天氣。我覺得很多傳言都來自業界之外,而你們的預測則展現出一種平靜和穩健的態勢。我只是想了解一下,我們是否遺漏了什麼。基本面看起來不錯。你提到了行駛里程對保持健康的重要性。你能評估一下目前的狀況嗎?還有什麼是你之前沒提到的嗎?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • I think I've said everything. We were just chatting amongst ourselves here before the call wondering if we'd be asked about Amazon because it's just something -- we were at our annual meeting with our store managers this week and we talked about a lot of things. We have a lot of tough competitors. I have yet to have anyone talk to me about Amazon as a competitor or online competitors. And I know that they are, but it's just not a big factor right now from a competitive standpoint, not that it can't be in the future and I obviously have a lot of respect for the great company that they have build there and again, I am a customer like most people. I think the things we talked about, just the tough year-over-year compares first quarter, mild weather in January and this delay in tax refunds are the reason that we have the 2% to 4% comp guidance for the first quarter. And I would refrain from reading more into it than just that.

    我想我該說的都說了。在電話會議之前,我們一直在閒聊,琢磨會不會有人問到亞馬遜,因為這事兒有點特殊——我們這周和門店經理們開了年度會議,聊了很多。我們有很多強勁的競爭對手。目前為止,還沒有人跟我提起過亞馬遜,或者說是線上競爭對手。我知道他們確實是,但就目前的競爭格局而言,這並不是說將來不會變成主要因素。我當然非常尊敬亞馬遜這家偉大的公司,而且,我跟大多數人一樣,也是他們的顧客。我覺得我們討論的那些因素,例如第一季同比數據不佳、一月份天氣偏暖以及退稅延遲,才是我們第一季業績預期在2%到4%的原因。除此之外,我建議大家不要過度解讀。

  • Simeon Gutman - Analyst

    Simeon Gutman - Analyst

  • Okay. And then I don't know if this was asked, but if you look at your next year, full-year guide and the composition of industry growth versus marketshare, you mentioned higher gas prices could pinch demand a little. I don't know if that I guess 3 to 5 is still intact, but does anything change in how you expect the industry to grow versus how much share you expect to gain in 2017?

    好的。還有,我不知道之前有沒有人問過這個問題,但如果你看一下你下一年的全年預測以及行業增長與市場份額的構成,你提到過油價上漲可能會稍微抑制需求。我不知道之前提到的3%到5%的比例是否仍然有效,但你對2017年行業增長方式以及預期市場份額增長的預期是否有任何變化?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • No, I think the cadence of industry growth and I think our success in taking marketshare, in addition to that growth, is pretty comparable in 2017 versus 2016. The challenge for our industry ongoing and this gas been a challenge for some time now is that as cars become more complex, we have to work harder to make sure that we are in a great position to keep customers that have cars out of warranty from going back to the dealers and choosing an aftermarket shop who buy parts from us and our competitors.

    不,我認為2017年行業成長的節奏以及我們在市佔率擴張方面的成功,與2016年相比基本上相當。我們產業持續面臨的挑戰,而且這個挑戰已經持續了一段時間,就是隨著汽車變得越來越複雜,我們必須更加努力,確保我們能夠有效地阻止那些車輛已過保固期的客戶回到經銷商處,轉而選擇從我們和競爭對手那裡購買零件的售後市場維修店。

  • So I think that, as an industry, we have got to continue to work to keep that business coming our way because as the cars become more complex, it becomes more and more difficult to build these parts and so forth. I think our industry has done great, but when I talk to our suppliers tonight, that will be one of the things I talk to them about is just the investments that we all have to make in making sure that we are in the best position we can possibly be to compete against our real competitors in the aftermarket and that is the OE dealers.

    所以我認為,作為一個行業,我們必須繼續努力,確保業務持續成長,因為隨著汽車變得越來越複雜,製造這些零件等等也變得越來越困難。我認為我們這個行業已經做得非常出色了,但今晚我和供應商們談話時,我會重點談到我們必須進行的投資,以確保我們處於最佳狀態,能夠與售後市場真正的競爭對手——原廠配套經銷商——展開競爭。

  • Simeon Gutman - Analyst

    Simeon Gutman - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks, Greg.

    好的,謝謝你,格雷格。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brett Jordan, Jefferies.

    Brett Jordan,傑富瑞集團。

  • Brett Jordan - Analyst

    Brett Jordan - Analyst

  • To that last question, your response that the cadence of industry growth in 2017 comparable to 2016, wouldn't it be more similar to 2012 where we had a very weak winter and we had a weak year in 2012 then some pickup in 2013? You don't think we are going to see acceleration in 2017 industry-wide?

    最後一個問題,您認為2017年產業成長的節奏與2016年相當,但這不是更像2012年嗎? 2012年冬季經濟情勢非常疲軟,全年整體成長乏力,直到2013年才回升。您認為2017年整個產業不會加速成長嗎?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • I am hopeful we do, Brett, and I agree with you that it probably would be a little more comparable to that, but when we talk about industry growth, I usually rely on what the associations project and so far, the people I've talk to at the various associations are projecting growth similar to what we would have seen last year. Tom, you may have some input on that?

    布雷特,我希望如此,我也同意你的看法,情況可能更接近實際情況。但說到產業成長,我通常參考產業協會的預測。到目前為止,我與各協會的代表交流後發現,他們預測的成長情況與去年基本持平。湯姆,你對此有什麼看法嗎?

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • Brett, what I would tell you is that when we look back at 2016, the second and third quarters were, they were solid quarters for us. When we go back to 2012, they were a little bit weaker than that. So that's why we think we are going to be more of a consistent basis and that's why we've given 3% to 5% guidance versus the comparison to 2012.

    布雷特,我想告訴你的是,回顧2016年,第二季和第三季對我們來說都是表現穩健的季度。而2012年的情況則略遜於此。因此,我們認為今年的業績會更加穩定,這也是為什麼我們給出的業績指引是比2012年增長3%到5%的原因。

  • Brett Jordan - Analyst

    Brett Jordan - Analyst

  • And that leads to another of my questions. On 2014, you talked a couple times about the marketshare gain on Q4. How did you see the underlying industry growth versus your comp? It seemed like the industry certainly didn't grow as well as you did last year, but do you have a feeling for what the spread might be marketshare versus just the rising tide?

    這引出了我的另一個問題。 2014年,您曾多次談到第四季的市佔率成長。您如何看待產業整體成長與同業公司相比的情況?看起來整個產業的成長確實不如您去年,但您是否認為市佔率成長與產業整體成長之間的差距可能有多大?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Do you have a comment on that, Tom?

    湯姆,你對此有什麼看法?

  • Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

    Tom McFall - EVP & CFO

  • We are going to watch and see how other people in the industry do here later in the month and maybe we'd have a better answer for you.

    我們會觀察一下本月稍後業界其他人的表現,或許到時候能給你一個更好的答案。

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Brett, I don't mean to oversimplify this, but I always look at what the associations say about industry growth and various indicators you can get through industry associations and so forth, but my most direct comparison is with our publicly traded competitors and privately owned companies, some of which I know the principles, finding out how they are doing and comparing it to how we did. And as you can see, that comparison has led us to the conclusion that we have gained quite a bit of marketshare over the last few years and under existing circumstances, I see no reason to think that that won't continue for 2017.

    布雷特,我並非想把事情簡單化,但我總是會關注產業協會對產業成長的評價,以及你能從產業協會等管道獲得的各種指標。不過,我最直接的比較對像是我們的上市競爭對手和一些我比較熟悉的私人公司,我會了解他們的經營狀況,然後和我們自己的情況做比較。正如你所看到的,這種比較讓我們得出結論:過去幾年我們獲得了相當可觀的市場份額,而且在目前的情況下,我認為沒有理由認為這種增長勢頭在2017年會停止。

  • Brett Jordan - Analyst

    Brett Jordan - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And then one last question. I think in your prepared remarks you said that the gap in regional performance had ceased to exist. Is that the case? And I guess as we look at what we've seen in January, are we, just because we have lost some of the winter in the Northeast, seeing a little bit of a slide back up here or is there anything meaningfully going on in different regions?

    好的,太好了。最後一個問題。我記得您在準備的發言稿中提到,區域間的表現差距已經消失。是這樣嗎?我想,如果我們回顧一月份的情況,是不是因為東北地區冬季持續時間縮短,所以出現了一些小幅回落?還是說不同地區的情況確實存在一些實質的改變?

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Well, we always have regional variations for a number of reasons, including the age of stores that exist in some regions versus others and things like that. What we were saying is that the difference that we felt like was driven by winter-sensitive markets or weather-sensitive markets as compared to those that might not be so weather-sensitive, that towards the end of the quarter, we saw that gap go away. To the extent that we have mild weather continue through the remainder of the winter, we would expect to see some of that gap come back.

    嗯,由於多種原因,我們總是會遇到區域差異,包括不同地區門市的店齡等等。我們先前提到,我們認為造成這種差異的原因在於,對冬季或天氣較為敏感的市場與對天氣較不敏感的市場之間存在差異。但到了季度末,這種差距已經縮小。如果冬季剩餘時間天氣持續溫和,我們預計這種差距會再次出現。

  • Brett Jordan - Analyst

    Brett Jordan - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Thank you.

    好的,太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Greg Henslee for closing remarks.

    提問環節時間已到。現在我將把電話交還給格雷格·亨斯利先生,請他作總結發言。

  • Greg Henslee - President & CEO

    Greg Henslee - President & CEO

  • Okay, thank you, Richard. We would like to again conclude our call by thanking the entire O'Reilly team for our strong 2016 results. We are pleased with our solid fourth-quarter and full-year results and we remain extremely confident in our ability to continue to aggressively and profitably gain marketshare in 2017. I would like to thank everyone for joining our call today and we look forward to reporting our 2017 first-quarter results in April. Thank you.

    好的,謝謝理查。我們再次感謝奧萊利團隊全體成員,感謝他們為我們2016年所取得的優異績效所做的貢獻。我們對第四季度和全年穩健的業績感到滿意,並且對2017年繼續積極、盈利地擴大市場份額的能力充滿信心。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議,我們期待在四月公佈2017年第一季的業績。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝各位。今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以斷開連線了。