O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon, and I'll be your operator for today. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎來到奧萊利汽車公司。2019年第二季財報電話會議。我叫布蘭登，今天由我來為您接聽電話。（操作說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. McFall. You may begin, sir.

現在我將把電話轉給麥克福爾先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Brandon. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. During today's conference call, we'll discuss our second quarter 2019 results and our outlook for the third quarter and full year of 2019. After our prepared comments, we'll host a question-and-answer period.

謝謝你，布蘭登。各位早安，感謝各位的參與。在今天的電話會議上，我們將討論我們 2019 年第二季的業績以及我們對 2019 年第三季和全年的展望。在我們發表完準備好的評論後，我們將進行問答環節。

Before we begin this morning, I'd like to remind everyone that our comments today contain forward-looking statements, and we intend to be covered by and we claim the protection under the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as estimate, may, could, will, believe, expect, would, consider, should, anticipate, project, plan, intend or similar words. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors described in the company's latest annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018, and other recent SEC filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call.

在今天早上開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述，我們打算受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中關於前瞻性陳述的安全港條款的保護，並聲稱受到該條款的保護。你可以透過諸如估計、可能、可以、將、相信、預期、會、考慮、應該、預計、預測、計劃、打算或類似詞語等前瞻性詞語來識別這些陳述。由於公司截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日止年度的最新 10-K 表格年度報告和其他最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的幾個重要因素，公司的實際業績可能與任何前瞻性聲明存在重大差異。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

At this time, I'd like to introduce Greg Johnson.

在此，我謹向大家介紹格雷格·約翰遜。

Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the O'Reilly Auto Parts second quarter conference call. Participating on the call with me this morning are Jeff Shaw, our Chief Operating Officer and Co-President; and Tom McFall, our Chief Financial Officer. David O'Reilly, our Executive Chairman, is also present.

謝謝你，湯姆。各位早安，歡迎參加歐萊利汽車配件公司第二季電話會議。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的有我們的營運長兼聯席總裁傑夫·肖，以及我們的財務長湯姆·麥克福爾。我們的執行主席大衛·奧萊利也出席了會議。

I'd like to begin our call today thanking Team O'Reilly for their continued dedication to providing the excellent service that earns our customers' business every day. Our team remains relentlessly committed to our customers and the growth of the O'Reilly brand in all of our markets.

今天，我首先要感謝奧萊利團隊，感謝他們一直以來致力於提供優質服務，而正是這種服務贏得了我們客戶的信賴和支持。我們的團隊始終不懈地致力於服務客戶，並推動 O'Reilly 品牌在我們所有市場的發展。

In the second quarter, we generated a 3.4 comparable store sales growth as our core underlying business was very solid. However, we faced some adverse weather headwinds during the quarter, which resulted in comparable store sales coming in towards the bottom end of our guidance range. We saw a strong start to our quarter in April but experienced unseasonably cool and rainy weather in many of our markets as we moved through the quarter, which significantly impacted the demand we typically see in seasonal peak season categories.

第二季度，由於我們的核心業務非常穩健，我們的同店銷售額成長了 3.4%。然而，本季我們遭遇了一些不利的天氣因素，導致同店銷售額接近我們預期範圍的下限。4 月我們的季度開局強勁，但隨著季度推進，我們許多市場都經歷了異常寒冷多雨的天氣，這嚴重影響了我們通常在季節性旺季類別中看到的需求。

As we called out in our press release yesterday, the significant precipitation we have seen thus far in 2019 has also delayed new store construction and pushed back our anticipated new store opening schedule, which Jeff will discuss in his prepared comments. The combination of these top line pressures, coupled with continued headwinds in SG&A expenses from an inflationary cost environment, resulted in our second quarter earnings per share performance of $4.51, falling below our guided range of $4.55 to $4.65. We are not pleased whenever our actual results fall short of our expectations, but remain confident in the drivers of underlying demand in the automotive aftermarket and in the ability of our team to outperform our competition and grow market share.

正如我們在昨天的新聞稿中提到的那樣，2019 年至今我們所經歷的大量降雨也延誤了新店建設，並推遲了我們預期的新店開業時間表，傑夫將在他準備好的發言中討論這個問題。這些營收壓力，加上通膨成本環境導致銷售、一般及行政費用持續上漲，導致我們第二季每股收益為 4.51 美元，低於我們先前預期的 4.55 美元至 4.65 美元。每當實際結果不如預期時，我們都會感到不滿，但我們仍然對汽車售後市場的潛在需求驅動因素以及我們團隊超越競爭對手、擴大市場份額的能力充滿信心。

Now I'd like to provide some additional color on the composition of our second quarter comparable store sales results. Both the DIY and professional sides of our business contributed positively to our comp growth in the second quarter, with professional again being the stronger contributor. In aggregate, comparable store sales gains continued to be driven by increased average ticket as a result of continued increasing parts complexity and inflation. Comparable ticket counts for the quarter were flat with solid growth on the professional side offset by a pressure to the DIY ticket counts, consistent with our recent trends as customers on this side of the business remain more susceptible to rising prices.

現在我想就我們第二季同店銷售業績的組成做一些補充說明。第二季度，我們公司的 DIY 和專業業務都對同業成長做出了積極貢獻，其中專業業務的貢獻更大。總體而言，由於零件複雜性不斷增加和通貨膨脹，平均客單價上漲繼續推動同店銷售成長。本季可比票數持平，專業領域的穩健成長被DIY票數的壓力所抵消，這與我們最近的趨勢一致，因為這部分業務的客戶更容易受到價格上漲的影響。

On a year-over-year basis, we experienced product acquisition inflation driven by tariffs and other input cost increases passed on from our suppliers. As has been the historical practice in our industry, these acquisition cost increases have been rationally passed through to increase pricing.

與去年同期相比，由於關稅和其他投入成本上漲（這些成本上漲是由供應商轉嫁的），我們的產品採購成本出現了通膨。正如我們行業以往的做法一樣，這些採購成本的增加都被合理地轉嫁到價格上，從而提高了產品價格。

During mid-June, the additional round of 15% tariffs went into effect, and we anticipate the related acquisition price increases will be passed along in selling price. However, we expect the incremental benefit in same SKU pricing will likely be offset by pressure to ticket counts and good, better, best product mix headwinds.

6月中旬，新一輪15%的關稅生效，我們預期相關的收購價格上漲將會轉嫁到銷售價格上。然而，我們預期相同 SKU 定價的增量收益可能會被客單價壓力和「好」、「更好」、「最佳」產品組合帶來的不利影響所抵消。

Next, I would like to provide some additional details on category performance and the cadence of our comparable store sales growth during the second quarter. As I previously mentioned, the quarter started off well but demand slowed as we moved into May and June. Typically, we see a seasonal increase during these months in heat-related categories such as air conditioning and refrigerants. However, with the unseasonably cool and rainy weather in many of our markets in May and June, we experienced sluggish demands in these categories. Excluding the headwinds we saw on these categories, we saw -- we continued to see solid demand in both sides of our business, in line with our expectations, and are pleased with the performance of key under car hard part categories, including brakes, ride control and chassis. We continued to have a positive outlook on the strength of our industry, including positive trends in core underlying demand drivers, steadily increasing miles driven and increasing age and complexity of vehicles. While weather conditions can cause short-term volatility in our business, our team remains focused on providing the best possible service to our customers every day in all of our markets, and this consistency in execution drives our ability to take share in all market conditions.

接下來，我想提供一些關於品類表現以及第二季同店銷售成長節奏的更多細節。正如我之前提到的，本季開局良好，但隨著進入五月和六月，需求放緩。通常情況下，在這些月份裡，與高溫相關的類別（例如空調和冷媒）的需求會出現季節性增長。然而，由於五月和六月我們許多市場出現異常涼爽的多雨天氣，這些類別的需求表現疲軟。撇開這些類別中遇到的不利因素不談，我們看到——我們業務的各個方面都繼續保持強勁的需求，符合我們的預期，並且對汽車底盤關鍵硬部件類別（包括剎車、行駛控制和底盤）的表現感到滿意。我們對產業的強勁前景依然保持樂觀，包括核心潛在需求驅動因素的正面趨勢、行駛里程的穩定成長以及車輛車齡和複雜性的增加。雖然天氣狀況可能會為我們的業務帶來短期波動，但我們的團隊始終專注於每天在所有市場為客戶提供最好的服務，這種執行上的一致性推動了我們在所有市場條件下都能佔據市場份額的能力。

With more normal summer weather we have experienced thus far in the quarter, we're off to a solid start in the third quarter and are establishing our third quarter comparable store sales guidance in 3% to 5%. Based on the first half performance and our unchanged expectations for the demand conditions in our industry, we are maintaining our full year comparable store sales guidance of 3% to 5%.

由於本季迄今我們經歷了較為正常的夏季天氣，第三季開局良好，我們第三季同店銷售額預期成長 3% 至 5%。根據上半年的業績以及我們對產業需求狀況不變的預期，我們維持全年同店銷售額成長 3% 至 5% 的預期。

For the quarter, our gross margin of 52.8% was a 36 basis point improvement over second quarter 2018 margin and in line with our full year gross margin guidance.

本季度，我們的毛利率為 52.8%，比 2018 年第二季的毛利率提高了 36 個基點，符合我們全年的毛利率預期。

During the quarter, our slower-than-anticipated seasonal sales resulted in a mixed benefit to gross margin percentage, and the year-over-year stability in gross margin highlights our industry's ability to pass along acquisition price increases. For the year, we're leaving our full year gross margin guidance unchanged at 52.7% to 53.2% of sales. Although based on year-to-date results and second half expectations, we now expect to be above the midpoint.

本季度，由於季節性銷售低於預期，毛利率受到好壞參半的影響，而毛利率同比保持穩定，凸顯了我們行業將收購價格上漲轉嫁給消費者的能力。今年，我們維持全年毛利率預期不變，仍為銷售額的 52.7% 至 53.2%。儘管根據年初至今的業績和下半年的預期，我們現在預計會高於中點。

Our operating profit dollar growth was 4% for the second quarter and 4.5% for the first half of 2019, and we continue to expect our full year operating profit as a percent of sales to be within our previously guided range of 18.7% to 19.2%.

2019 年第二季營業利潤美元成長率為 4%，2019 年上半年為 4.5%，我們繼續預期全年營業利潤佔銷售額的百分比將達到我們先前預期的 18.7% 至 19.2% 的範圍內。

For earnings per share, we're establishing our third quarter guidance at $4.73 to $4.83. We are maintaining our full year EPS guidance of $17.37 to $17.47. Based on our year-to-date results, expected headwinds from delayed new store openings and continued anticipating pressure to SG&A, we expect to come in near the bottom of the range. Our full year guidance includes the impact of shares repurchased through the call but does not include any additional share repurchases.

對於每股收益，我們第三季的預期為 4.73 美元至 4.83 美元。我們維持全年每股收益預期為 17.37 美元至 17.47 美元。根據我們今年迄今的業績，以及新店開幕延遲帶來的預期不利因素和持續的銷售、一般及行政費用壓力，我們預期業績將接近預期範圍的下限。我們的全年業績指引包含了透過此認購計畫回購的股份的影響，但不包括任何額外的股份回購。

Before I turn the call over to Jeff, I would like to again thank our team of over 81,000 dedicated team members for their continued dedication and commitment to our customers. We remain very confident in the long-term drivers for demand in our industry, and we believe we're very well positioned to capitalize on this demand by consistently providing industry-leading services to our customers every day.

在將電話交給傑夫之前，我想再次感謝我們超過 81,000 名敬業的團隊成員，感謝他們對客戶的持續奉獻和承諾。我們對產業需求的長期驅動因素仍然充滿信心，我們相信，透過每天持續為客戶提供業界領先的服務，我們完全有能力抓住這一需求。

I'll now turn the call over to Jeff Shaw. Jeff?

現在我將把電話交給傑夫·肖。傑夫？

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to join Greg in thanking Team O'Reilly for their hard work and steadfast method to outhustling the competition to earn our customers' business by providing the best service in our industry. Our team continues to successfully navigate a choppy sales environment by staying focused on the fundamentals of our business and ensuring we are doing everything possible to take care of our customers.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。我謹代表格雷格感謝奧萊利團隊的辛勤工作和堅定不移的努力，他們透過提供業內最佳服務，超越競爭對手，贏得了客戶的信任。在銷售環境動盪的情況下，我們的團隊依然能夠成功應對，這得益於我們始終專注於業務的基本要素，並確保我們盡一切可能照顧好我們的客戶。

I'd like to begin my comments today by discussing our SG&A results for the quarter and provide some color on our approach to executing our business model and managing expenses. SG&A as a percent of sales was 33.6%, a deleverage of 64 basis points from 2018. On average per store SG&A basis, our SG&A grew 3.4%, which is higher than our expectations for the quarter, while total SG&A dollar spend was on plan. The majority of the deleverage from the prior year was expected as we continue to see structural cost pressure from rising wage rates and other variable costs in a tight labor market. At the same time, we continue to invest in our goals to continually enhance customer service both in-store and in our omni-channel and technology initiatives.

今天我想先談談我們本季的銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）業績，並簡要介紹一下我們執行業務模式和管理費用的方法。銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比為 33.6%，比 2018 年下降了 64 個基點。以每家門市的平均銷售、管理及行政費用計算，我們的銷售、管理及行政費用增加了 3.4%，高於我們對本季的預期，而銷售、管理及行政費用總額則符合計畫。由於勞動市場緊張，薪資上漲和其他變動成本持續帶來結構性成本壓力，因此前一年的大部分去槓桿化都在預期之中。同時，我們將繼續投資，不斷提升店內、全通路以及技術方面的客戶服務水準。

The higher-than-expected per store SG&A growth is the result of delays in new store openings. When a new store's opening day is pushed back a month or 2, a portion of the staff for the new store has already been hired and is in training in an existing store. Adjusting for these delays is extremely difficult, especially in this tight labor market. Our field management teams have flexibility to adjust staffing levels to appropriately respond to persistent trends in our business but will not adjust drastically in short periods of time in an attempt to hit a short-term target. We're very confident in this strategy and feel that our consistency in delivering excellent customer service in all market conditions has been critical to our long-term success. However, we do encounter pressure to our SG&A when facing sales volatility, particularly when we experience significant weather-driven swings in the business in the short term. We constantly evaluate the opportunities we have to drive increased sales and profitability. We can and will prudently adjust expenses over time when appropriate for our business.

單店銷售、管理及行政費用成長高於預期，是因為新店開幕延遲造成的。當一家新店的開幕日期推遲一到兩個月時，新店的部分員工已經招聘完畢，並在現有門市接受培訓。要應對這些延誤極為困難，尤其是在當前勞動市場緊張的情況下。我們的現場管理團隊可以靈活調整人員配備水平，以適當應對業務中的持續趨勢，但不會為了達到短期目標而在短時間內進行大幅調整。我們對這項策略非常有信心，並認為無論在何種市場條件下，我們始終如一地提供卓越的客戶服務，這對我們的長期成功至關重要。然而，當面臨銷售波動時，我們的銷售、一般及行政費用會面臨壓力，尤其是在短期內業務受到天氣因素影響而出現顯著波動時。我們不斷評估各種能夠提升銷售額和獲利能力的機會。我們能夠並且將會在適當的時候，根據業務需要謹慎地調整支出。

As Greg discussed earlier, as we look forward to the remainder of 2019, we continue to have a positive outlook for the demand in our industry and are maintaining our sales guidance. As a result, we're also maintaining our guidance range for full year growth in SG&A per store of 2.5% to 3% with the expectation we will come in towards the higher end of that range based on the results in the first half of 2019.

正如 Greg 之前所討論的，展望 2019 年剩餘時間，我們仍然對行業需求持樂觀態度，並維持我們的銷售預期。因此，我們維持全年每店銷售、管理及行政費用成長2.5%至3%的預期範圍，並預期根據2019年上半年的業績，我們將接近該範圍的上限。

Next, I'd like to provide an update on our store expansion during the quarter and our plans for the remainder of the year. In the second quarter, we opened 43 net new stores, bringing our total 2019 store openings to 105 through the first 6 months of the year. While the construction, installation and opening of over 100 stores in the first half of the year is a result of a significant amount of hard work and dedication by our team, we unfortunately are well behind the planned schedule for new store openings we established coming into 2019. This shortfall is the result of the significant level of precipitation we saw in markets with new store projects in development. Consistent with our approach in previous years, our projected calendar for new store openings is more heavily weighted towards the front half of the year, which affords us the opportunity to put a new team in place and let them get their feet underneath them before entering the busy summer season.

接下來，我想向大家報告一下本季我們門市的擴張情況以及今年剩餘時間的計畫。第二季度，我們淨增 43 家門市，讓 2019 年上半年的門市總數達到 105 家。雖然今年上半年我們完成了 100 多家門市的建設、安裝和開業，這離不開我們團隊的辛勤付出和奉獻精神，但遺憾的是，我們遠遠落後於我們在 2019 年初制定的新店開業計劃。這一缺口是由於我們在正在開發新店項目的市場中看到了大量的降水所造成的。與往年的做法一致，我們預計新店開業的計劃將更多地集中在上半年，這讓我們有機會組建一支新團隊，讓他們在進入繁忙的夏季之前站穩腳跟。

We're accustomed to seeing and adjusting to delays for any number of reasons, including weather, and typically would not have a material impact to our overall schedule. Unfortunately, the wet weather in 2019 has been widespread and persistent enough on a week-to-week basis that it has delayed many projects for extended periods of time and has impacted our overall schedule significantly. As Greg mentioned earlier, this delay created top line pressure in our second quarter that will persist as we catch up in the back half of the year. However, we remain very confident we'll achieve our goal of opening at least 200 new net new stores for 2019.

我們已經習慣了因各種原因（包括天氣）造成的延誤，並會做出相應的調整，通常不會對我們的整體進度造成實質影響。不幸的是，2019 年的潮濕天氣影響範圍廣、持續時間長，每週都如此，導致許多專案長時間延誤，並對我們的整體進度造成了重大影響。正如格雷格之前提到的那樣，這一延誤給我們的第二季度帶來了營收壓力，這種壓力將持續到我們下半年追趕進度的時候。但是，我們仍然非常有信心實現2019年至少新增200家門市的目標。

Now before I turn the call over to Tom, I'd like to provide an update on a couple of other expansion projects. During the second quarter, we successfully completed the conversion of 20 Bennett Auto Supply stores acquired at the end of 2018 and merged the remaining 5 stores into existing O'Reilly locations. The Bennett team has been a great addition, and we're pleased with the opportunities to continue to grow our business in Florida, which remains a key growth market for us.

在將電話交給湯姆之前，我想先報告其他幾個擴建項目的最新進展。第二季度，我們成功完成了 2018 年底收購的 20 家 Bennett Auto Supply 門市的改造，並將剩餘的 5 家門市併入現有的 O'Reilly 門市。Bennett 團隊的加入為我們帶來了極大的幫助，我們很高興有機會繼續在佛羅裡達州發展業務，佛羅裡達州仍然是我們重要的成長市場。

Finally, I'm pleased to report that we continue to progress on schedule in the development of our 3 DC projects with planned new facilities in Twinsburg, Ohio, just South of Cleveland; in Lebanon, Tennessee in the Metro Nashville market; and in Horn Lake, Mississippi, just South of Memphis. We've established an aggressive schedule for these projects with a planned opening of Twinsburg in the fourth quarter followed by Lebanon opening in the first half of 2020 and Horn Lake opening in the second half of 2020. Our DC team has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to successfully manage multiple ongoing new distribution projects while consistently achieving the high standard of service to allow our stores to get hard-to-find parts in our customers' hands faster than our competitors. We're the industry leader in the investments we've made to establish a robust distribution infrastructure that supports the best parts availability in the aftermarket, and we will aggressively work to enhance our distribution capabilities to maintain this competitive advantage.

最後，我很高興地報告，我們的 3 個數據中心項目正在按計劃推進，計劃在俄亥俄州克利夫蘭以南的 Twinsburg、田納西州納什維爾都市區市場的 Lebanon 以及密西西比州孟菲斯以南的 Horn Lake 建設新的設施。我們為這些項目制定了積極的進度計劃，計劃在第四季度開放 Twinsburg，然後在 2020 年上半年開放 Lebanon，在 2020 年下半年開放 Horn Lake。我們的配送中心團隊已多次證明其有能力成功管理多個正在進行的新配送項目，同時始終保持高標準的服務，使我們的門市能夠比競爭對手更快地將難以找到的零件送到客戶手中。我們在投資方面處於行業領先地位，建立了強大的分銷基礎設施，為售後市場提供最佳的零件供應，我們將積極努力提高我們的分銷能力，以保持這一競爭優勢。

As important as the physical locations of our 27 DCs and our network of 350 hub stores are to our strategy, it's equally important that we execute on our business model of deploying the right inventory at the right location within our supply chain and effectively and efficiently delivering the right part to our customers faster than our competitors. We're extremely confident in the ability of our teams to execute at a high level and lead the industry in inventory availability, but we will not rest on our past success as we strive to expand our industry-leading advantage. I'd like to once again thank our store and distribution teams for their continued dedication to providing the best customer service in our industry. Despite the fluctuations in industry demand we experienced in the first half of the year, our team has produced solid results, and we're in a great position to finish the year strong.

雖然我們 27 個配送中心和 350 個樞紐門市的實際位置對我們的策略至關重要，但同樣重要的是，我們要執行我們的商業模式，即在供應鏈中的正確位置部署正確的庫存，並比競爭對手更快地將正確的零件高效地交付給我們的客戶。我們對團隊的執行能力充滿信心，相信他們能夠高水準地執行任務，並在庫存可用性方面引領行業，但我們不會止步於過去的成功，我們將繼續努力擴大我們行業領先的優勢。我再次感謝我們的門市和配送團隊，感謝他們一直以來致力於提供業界最佳的客戶服務。儘管今年上半年產業需求有所波動，但我們的團隊取得了穩健的成績，我們完全有能力在年底前取得佳績。

Now I'll turn the call over to Tom.

現在我把電話交給湯姆。

Thanks, Jeff. I would also like to thank all of Team O'Reilly for their continued commitment to our customers, which drove our solid results in the second quarter.

謝謝你，傑夫。我還要感謝 O'Reilly 團隊的所有成員，感謝他們對客戶的持續投入，正是這種投入推動了我們第二季度取得穩健的業績。

Now we'll take a closer look at our quarterly results. For the quarter, sales increased $134 million, comprised of an $81 million increase in comp store sales, a $54 million increase in noncomp store sales, which includes the contribution from the acquired Bennett stores, and $1 million increase in noncomp, nonstore sales and a $2 million decrease from closed stores. For 2019, we continue to expect our total revenue to be $10 billion to $10.3 billion.

現在我們將仔細看看我們的季度業績。本季銷售額成長 1.34 億美元，其中包括同店銷售額成長 8,100 萬美元，非同店銷售額成長 5,400 萬美元（包括收購的 Bennett 門市的貢獻），非同店、非門市銷售額成長 100 萬美元，以及因門市關閉而減少 200 萬美元。我們預計 2019 年的總收入將達到 100 億美元至 103 億美元。

As Greg previously mentioned, our gross margin was up 36 basis points for the quarter as we saw benefits from product mix. On a year-over-year basis, second quarter gross margin also benefited from the sell-through of [on hand] inventory that was purchased prior to the tariff-driven acquisition price increases which went into effect at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 and the corresponding retail and the wholesale price increases. Within our guidance expectations coming into 2019, this benefit to gross margin was expected to be more significant to gross margin in the first half of the year. And as Greg mentioned earlier, we are leaving our full year guidance unchanged, but our actual results will be impacted by the most recent round of tariffs and the timing of corresponding market price increases. We remain confident that margins will remain rational in our industry as the nondiscretionary nature and immediacy of need of the parts we sell affords us and our competitors significant pricing power.

正如 Greg 先前提到的，由於產品組合帶來的好處，我們本季的毛利率提高了 36 個基點。與去年同期相比，第二季毛利率也受益於在 2018 年底和 2019 年初關稅驅動的採購價格上漲以及相應的零售和批發價格上漲之前購買的庫存的銷售。在我們2019年的預期中，此利好因素預計在上半年對毛利率的提升更為顯著。正如格雷格之前提到的，我們維持全年業績預期不變，但我們的實際業績將受到最新一輪關稅以及相應市場價格上漲時間的影響。我們仍然相信，由於我們所售零件的非可自由支配性和即時需求性，使我們和我們的競爭對手擁有相當大的定價權，因此我們行業的利潤率將保持合理水準。

Our second quarter effective tax rate was 23.9% of pretax income, slightly above our expectations and comprised of base rate of 24.4%, which was on plan, reduced by 0.5% benefit from share-based compensation, which was less than expected. This compares to the second quarter of 2018 rate of 21.5% of pretax income, which was comprised with a base rate of 24.5%, reduced by a 3% benefit for share-based compensation. For the full year of 2019, we continue to expect an effective tax rate of approximately 23.5%, comprised of base rate of 24.1%, reduced by a benefit of 0.6% per share-based compensation. While the benefit from share-based compensation will fluctuate from quarter to quarter, we expect these variations to even out over the course of the year and are leaving our full year tax rate expectation unchanged. We expect our base rate to be relatively consistent with the exception of the third quarter, which may be lower due to the totaling of certain open tax periods.

我們第二季的實際稅率為稅前收入的 23.9%，略高於我們的預期，其中包括 24.4% 的基本稅率（符合計畫），減去 0.5% 的股權激勵收益（低於預期）。相比之下，2018 年第二季的稅率為稅前收入的 21.5%，其中基本稅率為 24.5%，扣除了 3% 的股份支付收益。2019 年全年，我們預計實際稅率約為 23.5%，其中基本稅率為 24.1%，每股股份支付的薪酬可享 0.6% 的折扣。雖然股權激勵帶來的收益會逐季波動，但我們預計這些波動會在一年內趨於平衡，因此我們對全年稅率的預期保持不變。我們預計基準稅率將相對穩定，但第三季除外，由於某些未結稅期的累計，第三季的基準稅率可能會較低。

Now we'll move on to free cash flow and the components that drove our results for the quarter and our guidance expectations for the full year of 2019. Free cash flow for the first 6 months of 2019 was $541 million versus $632 million in the first 6 months of 2018, with the reduction driven by increased CapEx and a higher accounts receivable balance, which is timing related due to the date -- day of the week the quarter ended, offset in part by higher pretax income and a reduction in our net inventory investment. For the full year, we're maintaining our free cash flow guidance in the range of $1 billion to $1.1 billion.

現在我們將討論自由現金流以及推動本季業績的各項因素，並展望 2019 年全年業績預期。2019 年上半年的自由現金流為 5.41 億美元，而 2018 年上半年為 6.32 億美元，減少的原因是資本支出增加和應收帳款餘額增加，這與季度結束的日期（星期幾）有關，部分被稅前收入增加和淨庫存投資減少所抵消。我們對全年的自由現金流預期維持在 10 億美元至 11 億美元之間。

Inventory per store at the end of the quarter was 610,000, which was down slightly from the beginning of the year and up 1.6% from this time last year. We continue to expect to grow per store inventory in the range of 2% to 2.5% this year as a result of acquisition cost increases and the fourth quarter opening of the Twinsburg DC putting pressure on the growth percentage.

本季末每家門市的庫存量為 61 萬件，比年初略有下降，比去年同期成長 1.6%。由於採購成本增加以及第四季度 Twinsburg 配送中心的開幕給成長百分比帶來壓力，我們預計今年每家門市的庫存成長率仍將保持在 2% 至 2.5% 之間。

Our EPD inventory ratio at the end of the second quarter was 108%, which is up from 106% from the end of 2018. We still expect to finish 2019 at approximately 106%.

第二季末，我們的 EPD 庫存比率為 108%，高於 2018 年底的 106%。我們仍預計 2019 年的完成率將達到 106% 左右。

Finally, capital expenditures for the first half of the year were $296 million, which is up $71 million from the same period of 2018, driven by our ongoing investments in new distribution projects, the conversion of the bonds -- excuse me, conversion of the Bennett stores and new store growth and technology investments. We continue to forecast CapEx to come in between $625 million and $675 million of the full year.

最後，今年上半年的資本支出為 2.96 億美元，比 2018 年同期增加了 7,100 萬美元，這主要得益於我們對新分銷項目的持續投資、債券的轉換——抱歉，是 Bennett 商店的轉換以及新店的成長和技術投資。我們繼續預測全年資本支出將在 6.25 億美元至 6.75 億美元之間。

Moving on to debt. We finished the second quarter with an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.35x as compared to our ratio of 2.23x at the end of 2018. The increase in our leverage ratio reflects our May bond issuance and borrowings on our unsecured revolving credit facility. We're below our stated leverage target of 2.5x, and we'll approach that number when appropriate.

接下來談談債務問題。在第二季末，我們調整後的負債與 EBITDA 比率為 2.35 倍，而 2018 年底的比率為 2.23 倍。我們的槓桿率上升反映了我們5月份發行的債券以及我們無擔保循環信貸額度的借款。我們目前的槓桿率低於既定目標 2.5 倍，我們會在適當的時候接近這個目標。

We continued to execute our share repurchase program. And year to date, we repurchased 2.6 million shares at an average share price of $359.63 for a total investment of $921 million. Subsequent to the end of the second quarter and through the date of our press release, we repurchased 0.2 million shares at an average price of $380.79. We remain very confident the average price -- repurchase price is supported by expected discounted future cash flows of our business, and we continue to view our buyback program as an effective means of returning available cash to our shareholders.

我們繼續執行股票回購計畫。今年迄今為止，我們以平均每股 359.63 美元的價格回購了 260 萬股股票，總投資額為 9.21 億美元。在第二季結束後至新聞稿發布之日，我們以平均每股 380.79 美元的價格回購了 20 萬股股票。我們仍然非常有信心，平均價格——回購價格能夠得到我們業務預期未來現金流折現的支持，我們繼續將回購​​計劃視為向股東返還可用現金的有效手段。

Before I open up our call to your questions, I'd like to thank the O'Reilly team for their dedication to our company and our customers. This concludes our prepared comments.

在正式開始回答大家的問題之前，我想感謝 O'Reilly 團隊對我們公司和客戶的奉獻。我們的發言到此結束。

And at this time, I'd like to ask Brandon, the operator, to return to the line, and we'll be happy to answer your questions.

此時，我想請接線生布蘭登回到電話線，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And from Jefferies, we have Bret Jordan.

（操作說明）傑富瑞集團的布雷特·喬丹也出席了活動。

Just a follow-up on your inflation commentary. I mean I guess as we look at anniversarying last year's tariffs but then some potential new tariff additions this year, how do you see the inflation stacking up in the second half of the year?

關於您之前提到的通貨膨脹問題，我還有一些補充。我的意思是，考慮到去年關稅政策的周年紀念日，以及今年可能新增的一些關稅，您認為下半年的通膨情況會如何？

So our second quarter inflation was a little bit over 2, similar to the first quarter. We would expect as these tariffs start hitting our acquisition costs that we will flow through that into price. So we would expect that we'll see a higher number. Originally we thought 2 for the year with it easing in the back half, but that looks like there will be additional pressure there. It will depend on how long these tariffs stay in place. Our plan right now is that they will continue as is.

因此，我們第二季的通貨膨脹率略高於 2%，與第一季相近。我們預計，隨著這些關稅開始影響我們的採購成本，我們將把這些成本轉嫁到價格中。因此，我們預計會看到更高的數字。我們原本以為今年會是 2 場，下半年會有所緩解，但現在看來下半年會面臨更大的壓力。這將取決於這些關稅措施將持續多久。我們目前的計劃是他們將繼續維持現狀。

Okay. Great. And then a question, I guess, when you look around the market, you talked about even in this space of slow demand, pricing was pretty rational. Are you seeing any either pass-through of tariffs in lower prices from competitors or more aggressive activity around, I don't know, small commercial accounts or large national accounts?

好的。偉大的。然後我想問一個問題，當你環顧市場時，你提到即使在需求疲軟的情況下，定價也相當合理。您是否觀察到競爭對手透過降低價格來轉嫁關稅，或針對小型商業客戶或大型國家客戶採取更積極的促銷活動？

Jeff, do you want to take that one?

傑夫，你想接那個任務嗎？

Well, I mean for the most part, I mean, everybody is under the same pressure from the price increases. And what we're seeing in the field is everybody is adjusting their prices accordingly. I mean any time there's pressure on sales, you'll see some competitors try to use price as a tool to gain business. But for the most part, that's not the case.

嗯，我的意思是，在很大程度上，每個人都面臨物價上漲帶來的同樣壓力。我們看到的情況是，大家都在相應地調整價格。我的意思是，每當銷售面臨壓力時，你都會看到一些競爭對手試圖利用價格作為贏得業務的手段。但大多數情況下並非如此。

Yes. I mean -- yes, I'm sorry. We -- it's been very rational, Bret, and to Jeff's point, any exceptions to that from some of these small regional players I wouldn't attribute to tariffs or inflation, it's just typically some of the things they do during the course of a quarter.

是的。我的意思是——是的，我很抱歉。我們——一直以來都非常理性，布雷特，而且正如傑夫所說，如果某些小型區域性企業出現例外情況，我不會將其歸因於關稅或通貨膨脹，這只是他們在一個季度內通常會做的一些事情。

From Goldman Sachs, we have Kate McShane.

來自高盛的凱特·麥克沙恩。

Just after these first 2 quarters of cost being closer to 3% than the 5%, we're wondering what you're seeing that gives you confidence that you could potentially still reach the high end of that range. And do you have an estimate of how much your business was impacted by the wet weather?

在前兩個季度成本接近 3% 而不是 5% 之後，我們想知道是什麼讓您有信心仍然能夠達到該範圍的上限。您能否估算一下，潮濕天氣對您的業務造成了多大影響？

What we would tell you is when we look at our category-by-category performance that our underlying nonseasonal business has been very strong. Where we've run into problems are our seasonal business. We would tell you that absent the pressure we saw in the HVAC refrigerant category that Greg spoke to, we would have been happy with our comps this quarter. So when we look at the rest of the year we always plan for a normal weather and that core underlying demand for hard parts remains good and gives us confidence in the last -- second half of the year.

我們想告訴大家的是，從我們按類別劃分的業績來看，我們非季節性業務的整體表現非常強勁。我們遇到的問題主要集中在季節性業務方面。我們可以告訴您，如果沒有格雷格提到的暖通空調冷媒類別中的壓力，我們對本季的業績比較結果會感到滿意。因此，展望今年剩餘時間，我們總是以正常的天氣為前提進行規劃，而對零件的核心潛在需求依然良好，這讓我們對今年下半年充滿信心。

Okay. And just with the delayed store openings, I just can't, of the top of my head, recall a time when this has been the case before. Is it purely just weather? Or is it just -- is there more specific circumstances as to why this is happening now than maybe not happening before? Is it the timing of the number of stores versus...

好的。就商店開業延遲這一情況而言，我一時想不起來以前有過類似的情況。僅僅是天氣原因嗎？或者說，現在發生這種情況是否有比以前未發生這種情況更具體的原因？是門市數量與開幕時間的比較問題嗎？

We had a fairly aggressive plan in 2019 front-loaded to the first half of the year, but it's entirely weather related. I mean we've always got issues year-to-year when you're making a plan and a forecast. I mean it could be environmental, regulatory, whatever the case may be. There is always weather issues and normally the second quarter is the most volatile quarter of new store openings during the year. That's when we have the most impact from weather, and this year was just extremely tough and widespread and persistent. What I would add to that, Kate, is all of the locations for the year are in progress. So we're not looking for additional locations. It's just how quick we can get the doors open on the buildings.

我們在 2019 年制定了一個相當積極的計劃，重點放在上半年，但這完全取決於天氣。我的意思是，每年制定計劃和預測時，我們總是會遇到各種問題。我的意思是，可能是環境問題、監管問題，或其他任何原因。天氣因素總是存在的，而且通常來說，第二季度是一年中新店開業最不穩定的季度。當時天氣的影響最大，而今年的天氣狀況極為惡劣、影響範圍廣、持續時間長。凱特，我還要補充一點，今年的拍攝地點都在籌備中。所以我們目前不打算找其他地點。關鍵在於我們能多快打開建築物的門。

From Wells Fargo, we have Zack Fadem.

來自富國銀行的紮克法德姆。

You talked about the benefit of selling through pre-tariff merchandise at post-tariff pricing, curious how much of a tailwind this has been for you so far these year? And then as the more inflationary products start to roll in, in the back half, curious if you could walk us through the puts and takes here? And at what point do you think this dynamic could shift to a gross margin headwind?

您談到了以關稅後的價格銷售關稅前商品的優勢，我想知道今年到目前為止，這對您來說有多大的利多？然後，隨著通膨性產品在下半年陸續上市，您能否為我們解釋這裡的買入和賣出策略？你認為這種動態在什麼情況下會轉變為對毛利率的不利影響？

So we would tell you that the faster-moving products there's less benefit because those are the ones we're most quickly reordering. So it's more of the back end of the lines where we're seeing the benefit. And we tell you that it's a modest benefit, and it's something that helps our gross margin. But ultimately, we look at last buy -- what was our last buy purchase price, and that's how we're managing our business. So when we look at the ongoing forward tariffs, we're going to take a look and make sure that we're priced appropriately for the market. And looking at what margin we think we need to make and should make based on GM ROI of each product to set those prices. So we think that the impact will not be a negative going forward. And we think we'll be able to sustain our margin percentage.

因此，我們會告訴您，週轉速度快的產品收益較小，因為這些產品是我們最快需要重新訂購的。所以，我們更多是在生產線的後端看到了好處。我們告訴您，這只是一項適度的收益，但它有助於提高我們的毛利率。但歸根結底，我們會查看上次的進貨價格——也就是我們上次的進貨價格，這就是我們管理業務的方式。因此，當我們審視當前的遠期關稅時，我們會仔細查看並確保我們的定價符合市場需求。然後根據每種產品的毛利率投資報酬率，考慮我們需要和應該獲得的利潤率，以此來制定價格。因此我們認為，從長遠來看，其影響不會是負面的。我們認為我們能夠維持目前的利潤率。

Okay. And on the SG&A side, how much of the 64 basis points of deleverage would you specifically assign to the delayed new store openings? And going forward with SG&A per store expected up about 3% for the year, are there any other buckets where you anticipate a step down in the growth rate from here?

好的。在銷售、一般及行政費用方面，您會將 64 個基點的去槓桿化具體歸因於新店開幕延遲？預計今年每家店的銷售、管理及行政費用將成長約 3%，那麼您是否預期其他方面的成長率將從此放緩？

So last year, we talked about SG&A -- people invest in SG&A with the part of the funds they receive from the tax reduction. And then going forward, if we saw higher-than-average SG&A growth, we would expect to see inflationary pricing in the top line being a benefit. And that's what we've seen this year as the labor market continues to be tighter. So when we looked at our guide this year, we were going to anniversary some of those investments we made last year in store payroll, primarily more heavily weighted in the first and second quarter as they ramped up. We would tell you that when we look at our guidance and you look at the guidance from the beginning of the year, the midpoint of our operating profit was an expectation of a decrease because of those pressures. We would tell you that when you look at the second quarter specifically that most of the deleverage was planned based on these higher structural store payroll numbers, but that -- a meaningful amount is due to slower comp sales than expected and lighter noncomp sales due to the stores not opening at that time.

所以去年，我們討論了銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A)——人們用從稅收減免中獲得的資金的一部分投資於 SG&A。展望未來，如果我們看到銷售、一般及行政費用成長高於平均水平，我們預期營收中的通膨定價將帶來好處。今年以來，隨著勞動市場持續趨緊，我們也看到了這種情況。因此，當我們回顧今年的業績指南時，我們發現去年我們在門市薪資方面的一些投資即將到期，這些投資主要集中在第一季和第二季度，因為當時門市正在快速發展。我們會告訴您，當我們回顧年初的業績指引時，由於這些壓力，我們預期營業利潤的中點將會下降。我們會告訴你，具體到第二季度，大部分去槓桿化是基於較高的門店結構性工資數字而計劃的，但其中相當一部分是由於同店銷售額低於預期以及由於門店當時沒有開業而導致的非同店銷售額較低。

From Stephens Inc., we have Daniel Imbro.

來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Daniel Imbro。

Just a follow-up on the last SG&A question actually. One of your larger peers has talked more recently about investing more heavily into supply chain and DC wages. Are you feeling any specific pressures from those kind of investments in that part of your business or is it more broad-based wage pressure?

實際上，這是對上次銷售、管理及行政費用問題的後續詢問。你們的一家規模較大的同業最近談到要增加對供應鏈和配送中心工資的投資。您是否感受到來自該業務領域此類投資的具體壓力，還是感受到更廣泛的薪資壓力？

I'd say it's across the board. And we're seeing some wage pressure in some of our store markets that's driven by minimum-wage changes where they're escalating some of those that are on the West coast. But across the country, across really in the corporate office and the DCs and in the stores, we're seeing wage pressures and wages moving up. One of the biggest areas we've seen some wage pressures is with our DOT truck drivers and our DCs. That's become a very aggressive market. Supply hasn't kept up with demand over the last couple of years, and we've seen a lot of inflation and wage pressure there.

我認為這種情況普遍存在。我們看到，在一些門市市場，由於最低工資標準的變化，工資面臨一些壓力，其中西海岸的一些地區的最低​​工資標準正在提高。但實際上，在全國範圍內，無論是在公司總部、配送中心或門市，我們都看到了薪資壓力和薪資上漲的趨勢。我們發現，工資壓力最大的領域之一是我們的 DOT 卡車司機和配送中心員工。那已經變成了一個競爭非常激烈的市場。過去幾年，供應一直跟不上需求，我們看到那裡出現了很大的通貨膨脹和薪資壓力。

Okay. And then I think it was last quarter or the call before that, you guys talked about the market becoming more rational and being able to raise retail prices to offset some of these wage pressures. So curious if you still think the market's in a similar place? Or what's changed to keep you guys from being able to pass through, since these are industry-wide cost pressures, being able to pass it through in the form of inflation?

好的。然後，我想應該是上個季度或上個季度的電話會議上，你們談到市場將變得更加理性，能夠提高零售價格來抵消一些薪資壓力。所以，我很想知道你是否仍然認為市場現狀與之前類似？或者說，是什麼原因導致你們無法將這些成本轉嫁出去？因為這是整個產業普遍面臨的成本壓力，你們原本可以將其以通貨膨脹的形式轉嫁出去。

Well, I think we've spoken to the first and second quarter of same SKU inflation being up slightly over 2, which is a reflection of passing through the inflationary pressures across the cross retail through our pricing to cover both the tariffs and increase in expenses, and I think you see that in our increasing gross margin percentage.

嗯，我認為我們已經討論過第一季度和第二季度的同店商品價格通膨率略高於 2%，這反映出我們透過定價將跨零售的通膨壓力轉嫁出去，以彌補關稅和成本增加，我認為你可以從我們不斷增長的毛利率百分比中看到這一點。

From Wolfe Research, we have Chris Bottiglieri.

來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Bottiglieri。

Wanted to go into a little bit of tariffs? Just hoping you may be give us a lay of the land in terms of the percentage of SKUs affected and the levels of price increases. And then just for clarity, the next 15, those are the same SKUs affected or has that become more expensive SKU set? And then just like holistically thinking about this, given some of your reservations on deferred demand and customer trade down, is this something you've already seen in the first round of tariffs, that's what gives you the confidence that you won't see comps accelerate on the next 15? That'll be helpful.

想稍微談談關稅問題嗎？希望您能為我們介紹一下受影響的 SKU 百分比和價格上漲幅度等情況。為了更清楚說明，接下來的 15 個 SKU，是與之前相同的 SKU，還是價格較高的 SKU 組合？然後，從整體上考慮這個問題，考慮到您對需求延遲和客戶降級的一些保留意見，您是否已經在第一輪關稅中看到了這種情況，這是否讓您有信心在接下來的 15 年中不會看到同類產品加速降級？那會很有幫助。

Chris, I'll take the first part of that and let Tom back to back-end question. There's been a total -- I think, this is the fourth round of tariffs. The first was more of a component tariff increase and then we hit more and more SKUs in the second and third round. The third round was the most impactful. It was a 10%. And this latest round is an additional 15% on the 10% for basically the same base of SKUs. As we said in previous quarter calls, just because there was a tariff increase, either at the component level or at the SKU level of 10%, that doesn't mean that we're going to take the full 10% tariff on that. We direct import a very smaller subset of our SKU base. Most of our direct -- most of our import lines coming from China flow through one of our supplier's facilities here in the U.S. So the impact of tariffs is a little less for us than if we direct imported all of that product. So what we would expect and what we've seen thus far is this next round of 15%, we would also take a less than 15% increase on this round.

克里斯，我來處理前半部分，讓湯姆回去回答後端問題。總共已經──我想，這已經是第四輪關稅了。第一輪主要是零件關稅上漲，然後第二輪和第三輪我們又增加了越來越多的 SKU。第三輪的影響最大。是10%。最新一輪漲幅是在原有 10% 的基礎上再增加 15%，而 SKU 的基本基礎不變。正如我們在上一季度電話會議中所說，即使零件或 SKU 的關稅提高了 10%，也不代表我們將承擔全部 10% 的關稅。我們直接進口的 SKU 數量只占我們 SKU 函式庫的一小部分。我們大部分來自中國的直接進口產品都會經過我們位於美國的一家供應商的工廠。因此，關稅對我們的影響比我們直接進口所有這些產品要小一些。因此，我們預期以及目前所看到的是，下一輪15%的漲幅，我們也會接受低於15%的漲幅。

In relation to your second question, we started to see some inflation on commodity-type items second quarter of the last year. And as prices go up, especially on items that are more discretionary, what we see is pressure on our lower-end consumer, our DIY consumer, and that's been reflected in pressure around their traffic counts. We see less of that pressure on our professional side of the business as the general demographic there is less impacted by price increases. So when we look at rolling through this additional round of tariffs, we'd expect the professional side of business to be less impacted on traffic and see a benefit there in average ticket. On the DIY side, we'll see the ticket average go up, but we would expect to see additional pressure on traffic as people work harder to defer to save money.

關於你的第二個問題，我們從去年第二季開始看到大宗商品價格出現一些通膨。隨著物價上漲，尤其是非必需品的價格上漲，我們看到低端消費者和DIY消費者面臨壓力，這反映在他們的客流量上。在我們公司的專業領域，這種壓力較小，因為那裡的一般人群受價格上漲的影響較小。因此，當我們考慮實施這一輪額外的關稅時，我們預期專業業務方面的流量受到的影響較小，平均票價也會下降。就自助修車而言，我們預計平均罰單價格會上漲，但隨著人們為了省錢而更加努力地推遲修車，我們預計交通壓力會進一步增加。

Got you. That's helpful. And then just a quick strategic question. Is there anything you can do to address this? I know the tool thing's pretty difficult, but is there any way to diversify outside of China so you're not exposed to 1 country? Is that something that's feasible? Or would you lose some of the benefit of scale from doing that and it's just not a road worth traveling?

抓到你了。那很有幫助。然後，我還有一個簡短的策略性問題。您能採取什麼措施來解決這個問題嗎？我知道工具方面的事情很難，但是有沒有辦法將業務分散到中國以外，這樣就不會只限於一個國家？這可行嗎？或者這樣做會損失一些規模效益，以至於這條路根本不值得走？

No, it's definitely an option. It's just not a short-term option. We try and for years we've tried to diversify where we buy our products across multiple suppliers to mitigate risk and where we can across multiple countries to also mitigate some of that risk. So for brake category, for example, we've got brake products coming in from China, from India and from some other smaller countries. So we're continuing to work with our suppliers to see what alternate sourcing locations we have, but that's just typically not a short-term change because it's not like the capacity's sitting there in these other countries, they have to build that capacity.

不，這絕對是可行的選擇。這並非短期解決方案。多年來，我們一直努力使產品採購來源多元化，從多個供應商採購以降低風險，並盡可能從多個國家採購，以降低部分風險。例如，就煞車產品而言，我們有來自中國、印度和其他一些較小國家的煞車產品。因此，我們正在繼續與供應商合作，看看我們有哪些替代的採購地點，但這通常不是短期內就能實現的改變，因為其他國家並沒有現成的產能，他們必須建立起這樣的產能。

From Crédit Suisse, we have Seth Sigman.

來自瑞士信貸的塞思·西格曼。

I just wanted to clarify on the full year guidance. So I think the earlier comment was that you're expecting EPS to now be at the low end of the range for the year. Is that due to the first half performance or are you actually modifying your expectations for the second half as well?

我只是想澄清一下全年業績指引。所以我認為之前的評論是，你預計每股收益現在將處於今年預期範圍的低端。這是因為上半場的表現，還是你也調整了對下半場的期待？

Well, I think the specific word we used was lower. It's based on really 2 factors that are different: second quarter results and our expectation that we're going to continue to be -- have a drag from new store openings where we're not going to generate as many noncomp store sales dollars as we expected as we both catch up and stores that open later in the year don't generate quite as much revenue as they have a later date to start ramping up their business.

嗯，我想我們當時用的字是「更低」。這實際上基於兩個不同的因素：第二季度的業績，以及我們預計新店開業將繼續拖累業績，因為我們需要時間追趕，所以新店的非同店銷售額不會像預期那樣高；此外，今年晚些時候開業的門店由於業務起步較晚，收入也不會像預期那樣高。

Okay. Makes sense. And then a follow-up question on the gross margin. Can you just talk about the performance in the quarter, specifically you highlighted mix as a benefit. If you can quantify that, that would be really helpful. And then I think previously you talked about gross margin being flattish for the second half of the year. Is that still the right way to think about it? I mean you do have higher pricing now, I guess, incremental to what you expected previously. So should we actually expect that, that could be a little bit higher for the year or at least for the back half of the year?

好的。有道理。然後又問了一個關於毛利率的問題。您能否談談本季的業績，特別是您提到的產品組合優勢。如果你能量化這一點，那就太好了。然後，我想您之前也提到過，下半年的毛利率將保持穩定。這種思考方式現在還正確嗎？我的意思是，現在的價格確實比你之前預期的要高一些。所以，我們是否應該預期，今年的成長率可能會略高一些，或至少下半年的成長率會略高一些？

We've maintained our guidance. We think we'll be a little bit above the midpoint of the guidance. Seth, I'm sorry, will you repeat the first question?

我們始終堅持既定方針。我們認為我們的實際業績會略高於指導值的中點。塞思，不好意思，你能再說一次第一個問題嗎？

The first part was just around the gross margin performance in the quarter. You highlighted mix. I'm just wondering if you could quantify that.

第一部分主要討論了本季的毛利率表現。你突出顯示了混音。我只是想知道你是否能對此進行量化。

I'm sorry about that. We're not going to get into the nitty-gritty of the details, but what we would tell you is that a lot of the seasonal products in HVAC and refrigerant are big-ticket items but carry a lower gross margin percentage. So not having those sales hurt our comps but help our gross margin percentage mix.

對此我深感抱歉。我們不會深入探討細節，但我們想告訴您的是，暖通空調和冷媒領域的許多季節性產品價格很高，但毛利率卻較低。因此，這些銷售額的減少雖然影響了我們的同店銷售額，但有助於提高我們的毛利率比例。

From Wedbush Securities, we have Seth Basham.

來自 Wedbush Securities 的有 Seth Basham。

My question is around the trends between DIY and DIFM. If you could give us a sense of whether or not the performance gap of comps between those 2 customer segments widened this quarter relative to the last quarter, that would be helpful.

我的問題是關於 DIY 和 DIFM 之間的趨勢。如果您能告訴我們，與上一季相比，這兩個客戶群之間的同店銷售業績差距在本季度是否有所擴大，那將很有幫助。

Yes. Overall, the spread was very similar to what we saw last quarter with professional outcomping DIY.

是的。總體而言，這一差距與上個季度專業人士和 DIY 的結果非常相似。

Right. And as you look back further in 2018, was it a narrower gap than we've seen thus far in 2019?

正確的。回顧 2018 年，當時的差距是否比 2019 年至今所看到的差距要小？

It's been pretty similar for the last 4 quarters.

過去四個季度情況都差不多。

Got it. And just lastly, as you roll forward and you think about the impacts of tariffs and the pressure on DIY customer. Do you think this next round leading to higher price increases and more pressure on the DIYers' pocketbooks is going to lead to a further widening of the gap?

知道了。最後，隨著你不斷向前發展，你會思考關稅的影響以及對DIY消費者的壓力。你認為下一輪價格​​上漲會給DIY愛好者帶來更大的經濟壓力，導致差距進一步擴大嗎？

I think it likely will. And it's not just that, Seth. It's the complexity of products that are impacting that as well. And it's not just our industry. We talk a lot about the average DIY consumer. Their spend is being impacted in everything they buy because of these tariffs. So their discretionary income and discretionary money they have to spend on nonessential items is just -- it's less than it was. And they will likely postpone any repairs that they don't have to make.

我覺得很有可能。塞思，事情還不止如此。產品的複雜性也是造成這種情況的原因之一。而且這不僅發生在我們這個行業。我們經常談論普通的DIY消費者。由於這些關稅，他們的所有消費都受到了影響。所以他們的可支配收入和可用於非必需品的可支配資金就比以前少了。他們很可能會推遲所有不必要的維修工作。

From Oppenheimer, we have Brian Nagel.

來自奧本海默公司的是布萊恩·納格爾。

It's David Bellinger on for Brian. So first, I want to push a little further on the monthly cadence of sales. Anything in particular there that you can point to in terms of underlying demand improving as the quarter progressed? Maybe certain category trends or geographical trends they could get into to help give us further comfort that comps in the back half of the year could potentially track better than what we've seen so far in the first 2 quarters?

大衛貝林格代替布萊恩上場。首先，我想進一步推進每月銷售節奏。就本季以來的潛在需求改善而言，您能否特別指出一些面向？或許他們可以深入研究某些品類趨勢或地理趨勢，以幫助我們進一步確信，下半年的同店銷售額可能會比前兩季的業績更好？

Sure. David, I'll take that and then I'll let Jeff speak to the regional trends. On the last call, the team talked about a more normal winter with the follow up -- with the normal weather, you have road conditions deteriorating, you have breaking of under car products, things like that -- or product categories rather. And that's -- to Tom's point earlier, that's what we saw in the quarter. So we had a more normal weather pattern for April. So April was the strongest month of the quarter. And then in May and into June, those weather patterns changed, and it was cooler weather than we normally see during that time of year, and much wetter across most of the country than we normally see. And that impacted primarily those heat-related categories that Tom spoke to and I said in my prepared comments. So what we would say is from a cadence standpoint, April would have been our strongest month of the quarter followed by June and then May would have been the softest month in the quarter.

當然。大衛，我來回答這個問題，然後我讓傑夫談談區域趨勢。在上次通話中，團隊討論了更正常的冬季及其後續情況——在正常的天氣下，道路狀況會惡化，汽車底盤產品會損壞等等——或者更確切地說是產品類別。正如湯姆之前所說，這就是我們在本季看到的情況。所以四月的天氣模式比較正常。所以四月是本季表現最好的一個月。到了五月和六月，天氣模式發生了變化，氣溫比往年同期要低，而且全國大部分地區的降雨量也比往年同期要大得多。這主要影響了湯姆提到的以及我在準備好的評論中提到的那些與高溫相關的類別。所以從節奏來看，4 月份是我們本季業績最好的月份，其次是 6 月份，而 5 月份則是本季業績最差的月份。

Got it. And then on the continued expense pressures you're seeing mostly on the wage side, are there any indication that those impacts are subsiding in any way? And how should we think about overall expense growth over the next couple of quarters if comps potentially track towards that lower end, the 3% to 5% range, and also as we begin to look more towards 2020?

知道了。那麼，關於您目前主要在工資方面看到的持續支出壓力，是否有任何跡象表明這些影響正在以任何方式緩解？如果同業比較數據可能趨向於較低的水平（3% 至 5%），而我們開始更展望 2020 年，那麼我們應該如何看待未來幾季的整體支出成長？

So our expectation is that payroll will continue to be a pressure item as unemployment stays very low and people are out there competing for folks. When we look at our SG&A, your expectation is that we're going to have solid sales for the last 2 quarters, absent -- with the exception of some pressure from new store opening timing but our comps will be solid and that our SG&A will come in at the high end of our average SG&A growth per store for the full year, which means being on plan for the third and fourth quarter.

因此，我們預計工資支出將繼續成為一個壓力項目，因為失業率仍然很低，而且人們都在激烈地爭奪人才。當我們審視我們的銷售、一般及行政費用時，我們預計在最後兩個季度，我們的銷售額將保持穩健，除了新店開業時間帶來的一些壓力外，我們的同店銷售額將保持穩健，並且我們的銷售、一般及行政費用將達到全年每店平均銷售、一般及行政費用的高端水平，這意味著第三季度和第四季度將按計劃進行。

From JPMorgan, we have Chris Horvers.

來自摩根大通的克里斯霍弗斯。

So just want to -- I want to follow up on the gross margin with respect to the tariffs and understand your comments, Tom. So is it that -- why wouldn't gross margin -- you see the similar gross margin benefit. So asked another way, are people not raising ahead of it and sort of waiting to roll into that acquired inventory and then raise the price on it? And is that sort of the different behavior in the competitive marketplace around pricing?

所以我想——我想跟進一下關於關稅的毛利率問題，並了解你的評論，湯姆。所以問題就在於——為什麼毛利率——你看不到類似的毛利率收益。換句話說，人們是不是提前漲價，等待消化這些已收購的庫存，然後再提高價格？這是否就是競爭激烈的市場中圍繞定價的不同行為模式？

Well, what we see is an uneven application of the increase of price. So some of it has to do with whether it was on the water, it depends on how much is in your supply chain here. What we've typically seen is that when the faster-moving items, which are the higher-value items, when you're starting to reorder those and then you sell through it, obviously, at a much faster rate, when you're reordering those at the higher prices and starting to sell through them, that's when we're seeing the prices be addressed in the market. So the slower-moving items that you have many more days of supply are the items where you get that benefit.

我們看到的是價格上漲應用不均衡的情況。所以，部分原因在於它是否在水上，這取決於你的供應鏈中有多少環節需要使用它。我們通常看到的是，當週轉速度較快、價值較高的商品開始補貨，然後以更快的速度售罄時，顯然，當你以更高的價格補貨並開始售罄時，我們就會看到市場上的價格問題得到解決。因此，那些週轉較慢、供應天數較多的商品才是你能從中受益的商品。

And the first time around last fall, did the prices go up more quickly on the slower-moving items?

去年秋季第一次出現這種情況時，週轉較慢的商品價格上漲速度是否更快？

Well, they go up across the line. Typically the tariffs will be addressed across the line. It's just when you are ordering them. What I would tell you is that the first round of tariffs, you -- the pass-through was more uneven than what we see here in the latest round of tariffs. Obviously, it's a bigger number. We've all gone through this process so we are expecting a more even, probably quicker application of those price increases.

嗯，它們越過那條線。通常情況下，關稅問題會透過各種管道來解決。就是在你訂購它們的時候。我想告訴你們的是，第一輪關稅的傳導效應比我們現在在最新一輪關稅中看到的要不均衡得多。顯然，這是一個更大的數字。我們都經歷過這個過程，所以我們期待價格上漲能夠更加平穩，速度也可能更快。

So does that suggest that -- so it seems like people in the marketplace are sort of feeling their way through this price increase. Is that the right way to think about it?

所以這是否意味著——看來市場上的人們正在摸索著應對這次價格上漲？這種思考方式正確嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Got it. And then in terms of -- understood. And then in terms of -- I'm not sure, just 2 follow ups. With May negative and then also from a regional performance, was this Midwest with the flooding and the rains, is it California, which is cooler versus the Northeast? Not sure if you touched on that yet.

知道了。然後就——理解了。至於後續問題——我不確定，只有兩個。五月的負成長以及區域性的表現，是指中西部地區遭遇洪水和降雨，還是指氣候比東北部涼爽的加州？不知道你是否已經談到這一點了。

Yes. May was not negative. We didn't have any negative months or weeks during the quarter. May was just softer than June and April. And Jeff, do you want to take the regional?

是的。五月並非負面事件。本季我們沒有出現任何虧損的月份或週。五月的氣溫比六月和四月低一些。傑夫，你想參加區域賽嗎？

On the regional performance, really, the underperformance we saw in the quarter was consistent across most of our markets as you'd expect with the weather conditions across the majority of the country. Where we experienced the most unfavorable wet weather we saw more impact on our business, especially our DIY business, and it's calling out the areas that were most impacted, that would be really the center part of the country and the West Coast.

就區域業績而言，正如你所預料的那樣，本季度我們在大多數市場都出現了業績不佳的情況，這與全國大部分地區的天氣狀況相符。在我們經歷最不利的潮濕天氣的地方，我們的業務受到了更大的影響，尤其是我們的 DIY 業務，報告指出受影響最大的地區實際上是該國中部和西海岸。

From Morgan Stanley, we have Simeon Gutman.

來自摩根士丹利的西蒙古特曼。

Ex the weather, if we look at the first half in total, not just the second quarter, do you have a sense of where the comp would end up? Would it be at the midpoint or could have been at the high end of the full year guidance?

例如，如果考慮天氣因素，我們看整個上半場比賽，而不僅僅是第二節，你覺得比賽最終會如何發展？會是全年預期目標的中點，還是會達到上限？

We're not going to get into details that specific. What we would tell you is, especially given the second quarter, if weather was more normal and those categories that were impacted performed okay, we would be happy with our comps.

我們不會深入討論那麼具體的細節。我們想告訴大家的是，尤其是在第二季度，如果天氣更加正常，並且那些受影響的類別表現良好，我們會對我們的業績感到滿意。

Okay. That's fair. And I forget, was it the first quarter, did you make the similar comment that weather -- you underperformed. I remember there was a soft part of that quarter as well, maybe February. So look, I was just trying to get a sense of...

好的。這很合理。我忘了，是不是第一季度，你也說過類似的話，說天氣原因導致你們表現不佳。我記得那一季也有一段比較疲軟的時期，可能是二月。所以你看，我只是想了解一下…

So when we look at the first quarter, we had a deferral of a lot of the spring weather into April, which was a positive. And that get out and clean up in the spring is more of a DIY side of the business. And we caught up on that in April. When we look at the drivers of hard parts, we had a more normal winter from a precipitation standpoint, spring just didn't break quite as early. So when we look at the first quarter and the second quarter, we look at the core categories that really display long-term demand in our business, the wear parts, the under car parts, are people taking care of their vehicles, is there wear and tear on their vehicles, those categories have looked solid all year and thus translated into a more solid professional side of the business. The seasonal categories, when spring hit, how much air-conditioning business did we do, those have been a little bit of a headwind. When we look at the back half of the year, that core underlying demand for the key categories in our industry is what gives us confidence to reaffirm our guidance for the year.

所以當我們回顧第一季時，春季的許多好天氣都推遲到了四月份，這是一個積極的信號。而春天出去清理場地則比較屬於DIY的範疇。我們在四月解決了這個問題。從造成困難的因素來看，從降水量來看，今年冬天比較正常，但春天來得晚了一些。因此，當我們回顧第一季和第二季時，我們會專注於那些真正反映我們業務長期需求的核心類別，例如易損件、汽車底盤件，以及人們是否在保養他們的車輛，他們的車輛是否有磨損。這些類別全年表現都很穩健，因此也轉化為業務中更穩健的專業面向。季節性因素，例如春季到來時空調業務的業績，都為我們帶來了一些不利影響。回顧下半年，我們產業關鍵品類的核心潛在需求讓我們有信心重申全年業績預期。

Okay. That's helpful. My follow-up is your view on -- towards larger chains. I think it seems like the consolidation at the shop level is picking up a bit. And I know in the past, you've tended to veer away from some of these chains because it's not been good for margin. Just wanted to see if that's still the case?

好的。那很有幫助。我的後續問題是您對——走向大型連鎖店的看法。我覺得門市層面的整合似乎正在加速進行。我知道過去你往往會避開其中一些連鎖店，因為它們的利潤率不高。只是想確認一下現在情況是否仍然如此？

Well, there's a tremendous amount of shops in the country. And there has been some consolidation. When we look at performance, there's a lot of regional chains that do a fantastic job. When we partner, we want to partner with people that are providing great customer service, have a model that we're efficient in supplying. And we've got a lot of regional and national customers that fit that, and we do a lot of great business with them. So I wouldn't say that we would shy away from any of that business. We're going to make sure that we lead with service in all the business we do.

這個國家有很多商店。而且也出現了一些整合。從業績來看，很多區域連鎖店都做得非常好。當我們尋找合作夥伴時，我們希望與那些提供優質客戶服務、擁有我們能夠高效供應的模式的人合作。我們有許多符合這項條件的區域性和全國性客戶，我們與他們開展了很多很棒的業務。所以，我不會說我們會迴避任何這類業務。我們將確保在所有業務中都以服務為先。

And from UBS, we have Michael Lesser.

來自瑞銀集團的還有麥可‧萊瑟。

So thus far this year you've done a 3.3% comp or so in the first half. Last year, you did 3.8% comp for the full year. This year, you've had 100 basis points of incremental inflation, suggesting that units are below where they were last year running at a slower pace of growth than they were last year. But why would that...

所以今年到目前為止，你們上半年的業績提升幅度約為 3.3%。去年，你的全年薪資成長率為 3.8%。今年以來，通貨膨脹率增加了 100 個基點，這意味著單位價格低於去年的水平，成長速度也比去年慢。但為什麼會這樣呢…

I'm sorry. Did you cut off there, Michael?

對不起。邁克爾，你就在那兒停下來了嗎？

So my question is it seems like you're seeing a greater elastic demand to the price increases than what's suggested or than what's perceived by -- what you had assumed in your guidance. Your comps year-to-date are running below where they were last year. And this is with more inflation than you experienced last year.

所以我的問題是，您似乎觀察到的需求對價格上漲的彈性比您所建議的或您所假設的要大。今年迄今為止，貴公司的業績比去年同期有所下滑。而且今年的通膨率比去年還要高。

So what we would tell you is our professional business continues to be strong. We're seeing more of that volatility on the DIY side of the business. A lot of DIY business also carries a very low average ticket with high volumes when you look at some of the maintenance items and -- in some of the appearance items that we do business in. So appearance, obviously, has been under pressure with -- the late March weather wasn't very good. And when you look at things like oil changes, a lot of volume, not as high a ticket. Those are items that either the customer can forgo or defer and that has created pressure on DIY traffic. What we'll tell you is that the hard parts category has continued to perform well.

因此，我們可以告訴大家的是，我們的專業業務依然強勁。我們看到，DIY業務領域也出現了更多這種波動。許多 DIY 業務的平均單價都很低，但銷量卻很高，尤其是在我們經營的一些維護項目和外觀項目方面。所以，很顯然，外表受到了壓力——三月下旬的天氣不太好。而像換機油這類項目，雖然數量很多，但單價並不高。這些項目顧客要么可以放棄，要么可以推遲購買，這給自助購物的顧客帶來了壓力。我們可以告訴大家的是，零件類別的表現一直都很好。

So when you look at the second half of the year, do you -- is your expectation that consumer is not going to defer these projects as much, and that will -- that's what will drive an improvement in the business?

所以，展望下半年，您是否預期消費者不會像之前那樣推遲這些項目，而這將推動業務改善？

In the second half, when we look at it, there is less seasonal categories that drive our business than in the first half.

下半年，我們觀察一下，就會發現推動我們業務發展的季節性類別比上半年少。

Okay. And then coming back just to the longer-term outlook. It's been several years since O'Reilly has comped up 5%. Is the business now just in a different stage as the industry has become more consolidated, you're doing higher per store volume, that it's just going to be more difficult for O'Reilly to comp up 5%?

好的。然後，讓我們回到更長遠的展望。奧萊利已經好幾年沒有漲薪 5% 了。現在，隨著行業整合程度的提高，業務發展進入了不同的階段，單店銷售額也更高了，所以 O'Reilly 想要實現 5% 的同店銷售額增長就更難了？

We had the same question in 2010, 2011. What we would tell you is that our business is a cyclical business, kind of 7-year cycles. The professional side of the business is much more stable. When we see good DIY years for many different reasons, whether it's weather-driven, whether it's increase in miles driven, wages, when we have those good DIY years, that's when we see the industry outperform. When that DIY consumer is under pressure, you see the industry put up numbers not quite as good. And I tell you that at the current phase, we're in that beginning part. If we -- that second part where DIY customer is under pressure. If we look back 3 years, we saw a run of 3 years where the DIY business swung up. And it will go through these cycles over time.

我們在 2010 年和 2011 年也遇到同樣的問題。我們想告訴大家的是，我們的業務是週期性業務，大約每 7 年一週期。該行業的專業方面則穩定得多。由於各種原因，例如天氣、行駛里程增加、工資上漲等等，當出現一些 DIY 行業表現良好的年份時，我們就會看到整個行業表現優異。當DIY消費者面臨壓力時，你會發現該產業的表現就沒那麼好了。我告訴你，目前我們正處於這個階段的初期。如果我們－第二部分，也就是DIY客戶面臨壓力的部分。回顧過去三年，我們發現DIY產業經歷了連續三年的蓬勃發展。隨著時間的推移，它會經歷這些週期。

And we have reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Greg Johnson for closing remarks.

我們的提問時間已經到了。現在我將把電話交還給格雷格·約翰遜先生，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, Brandon. We'd like to conclude our call today by thanking the entire O'Reilly team for your continued hard work and delivering another solid quarter. I'd like to thank everyone for joining our call today, and we look forward to reporting our third quarter results in October. Thank you.

謝謝你，布蘭登。今天通話的最後，我們要感謝 O'Reilly 團隊全體成員的持續努力，感謝你們又一個季度取得了穩健的業績。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議，我們期待在10月公佈第三季業績。謝謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。