甲骨文 (ORCL) 2004 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, my name is Katy and I will be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Retek conference. All lines have been placed on mute. After the speakers' remarks there will be a question and answer period. If you would like to ask a question during this time press star then the number 1 on the keypad. To withdraw your question press star then the number 2 on the keypad. Thank you.

各位早安，我叫Katy，今天將擔任本次會議的主持人。歡迎各位參加Retek電話會議。目前所有線路均已設為靜音。在講者致詞結束後，將進行問答時間。若您希望在此期間提問，請在電話鍵盤上按星號鍵再按數字1。若要取消提問，請按星號鍵再按數字2。謝謝。

I would now like to turn the call over to Al Galgano. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想把電話交給Al Galgano。先生，請開始。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝，接線員。

I would like to welcome everyone to Retek fourth quarter conference. I'm Al Galgano. With me in the room today are Marty Leestma and Gregory Effertz.

歡迎各位參加Retek第四季電話會議。我是Al Galgano。今天在會議室與我一同出席的有Marty Leestma與Gregory Effertz。

Please be advised today's call is being taped and will be available for replay for a period of one week. The replay can be accessed in the U.S. and Canada by dialing 1-800-642-1687. Please use the number 3308982. Also this call is being webcasted and will be archived on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.Retek.com.

請注意，今天的電話會議將全程錄音，並提供為期一週的重播。美國與加拿大地區可撥打1-800-642-1687收聽重播。請使用代碼3308982。此外，本次電話會議亦同步網路直播，並將存檔於我們網站www.Retek.com的投資人關係頁面。

Now on today's call, after a brief presentation by management, we will open it up to your questions. But before we begin, please be advised that statements made during the course of this conference call that are not historical are forward-looking statements in nature including statements regarding the company's future growth and financial results, as well as any statement containing the words "believes", "anticipates", "expects" and similar such words. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. For a detailed discussion of these risk factors and uncertainties, please see the company's filings with the SEC.

今天的電話會議將先由管理團隊做簡短簡報，之後開放各位提問。但在開始之前，請注意：本次電話會議中所作、非屬歷史事實的陳述，均屬前瞻性陳述，包括關於公司未來成長與財務結果的陳述，以及任何包含「相信」、「預期」、「期望」等或類似字眼的陳述。此類前瞻性陳述涉及已知與未知的風險、不確定性及其他因素，可能導致實際結果與這些陳述存在重大差異。關於上述風險因素與不確定性的詳細討論，請參閱公司向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件。

With that I would like to hand the call over to Marty Leestma. Marty?

接下來我想把電話交給Marty Leestma。Marty？

Thanks, Al, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Al，各位早安。

I'll make a few remarks on the fourth quarter results and then Greg will take you through financials in more detail before I come back with some commentary on the market and our 2005 outlook.

我會先就第四季業績做幾點說明，接著由Greg更詳細帶各位看財務數據，之後我會再回來補充對市場的看法以及我們對2005年的展望。

The bottom line is that I'm very pleased by our financial results for the fourth quarter. This was a solid quarter for Retek. This quarter we continued to demonstrate the leverage of our model, as well as ability to generate record levels of performance in what continues to be a challenging environment for software sales. During the quarter we reported $0.07 of operational earnings per share. This exceeded the high end of our previous guidance and marks our third highest quarter since becoming a public company in 1999. We produced an excess of $16 million of free cash flow during the quarter, resulting in cash balances of nearly $103 million and we booked nearly $16 million of growth contract revenue. When you couple this performance with the strength of our balance sheet, the power of our new technology platform, and an organizational structure that supports a more effective go to market strategy, I believe it points to a model that can sustain solid levels of profitability and is highly envied in the market. From a technology standpoint, we are happy with the traction that we are seeing from version 11 of our application suite, which we call Retek Xi. As you may remember, the three original development partners for this product were Gap, Galeries Lafayette in France, and Tesco in the UK. Since then, other new clients that are using components of Xi include Best Buy, Office Depot, Argos and William Sonoma. Most recently, we have signed new Xi agreements with Jean-Louis Partnership -- the largest department store chain in the UK -- hub distributors and Matahari, an Indonesian retailer.

總而言之，我對我們第四季的財務表現非常滿意。這對Retek而言是穩健的一季。本季我們持續展現商業模式的槓桿效益，以及在軟體銷售環境仍具挑戰的情況下，創造創紀錄績效水準的能力。本季我們公布每股營運盈餘為0.07美元。此結果高於我們先前財測區間的上緣，並且是自1999年成為上市公司以來第三高的單季表現。本季我們創造超過1,600萬美元的自由現金流，使現金餘額接近1.03億美元，並認列近1,600萬美元的成長合約收入。若將此表現與我們資產負債表的強勁、新技術平台的威力，以及支持更有效市場推進策略的組織架構結合起來，我相信這指向一個能夠維持穩健獲利水準、且在市場上備受稱羨的模式。從技術面來看，我們對應用套件第11版（我們稱之為Retek Xi）所展現的市場動能感到滿意。各位或許記得，該產品最初的三家共同開發夥伴為Gap、法國的Galeries Lafayette，以及英國的Tesco。此後，其他使用Xi部分元件的新客戶包括Best Buy、Office Depot、Argos與William Sonoma。最近，我們也與Jean-Louis Partnership——英國最大的百貨連鎖——以及hub distributors與印尼零售商Matahari簽署了新的Xi協議。

Acceptability for this application suite is growing and we would expect it to accelerate over the coming quarters. With our new application suite and the alignment of our organization into a solution unit structure, we believe we are well positioned with the right go to market strategy and the right product foot print to be successful. We are already seeing solid traction from the solution units in terms of size and quality of the respective sales pipelines. For example, our store and multi-channel retailing solution set has been in place for less than a year and has seen a 4 fold increase in its pipeline over that period. The unit has closed 3 large deals, the most recent being a multimillion dollar transaction with Best Buy in which they purchased our point of sale offering.

這套應用套件的市場接受度正在提升，我們預期未來幾季將加速成長。憑藉我們新的應用套件，以及將組織調整為解決方案事業單位（solution unit）架構，我們相信已具備正確的市場推進策略與合適的產品布局（product footprint），足以取得成功。就各解決方案事業單位而言，我們已在各自的銷售管線規模與品質上看到良好動能。例如，我們的門市與多通路零售解決方案組合推出未滿一年，其銷售管線在此期間已成長4倍。該事業單位已完成3筆大型交易，最近一筆是與Best Buy的數百萬美元交易，Best Buy購買了我們的銷售點（POS）產品。

In late October, we announced the Armani group, a world wide industry leader in the luxury fashion sector with over 304 stores, had chosen to expand its relationship with Retek. The Armani group is currently engaged in a global invitation of the Retek point of sales solution. During the fourth quarter we signed deals with five new clients. We are happy to announce that this performance exceeds the combination of the prior three quarters. Four of the deals we signed during the quarter had a contract value that is greater than $1 million. We are excited by this performance and are hopeful that we will continue to see this type of traction as we move forward into 2005.

在10月底，我們宣布Armani集團——奢侈時尚領域的全球產業領導者、擁有超過304家門市——已選擇擴大與Retek的合作關係。Armani集團目前正進行Retek銷售點解決方案的全球導入。第四季期間，我們與五家新客戶簽署合約。我們很高興宣布，這項表現超過前三個季度的合計。本季簽署的交易中，有四筆合約價值超過100萬美元。我們對此表現感到振奮，並期盼在邁入2005年後仍能持續看到這樣的動能。

And a final note, I'd like to say how pleased and excited we are to have the technology and assets of Syncra Systems to the Retek application suite. In order to extend our supply chain management offering, in November Retek acquired the assets and liabilities of Syncra. Syncra is the leading best of breed provider of CPSR technology which allows retailers to work with suppliers on promotion planning, consumer demand forecasting and inventory management. The acquisition of Syncra extends the reach of Retek's suite of supply chain solutions, allowing to retailers to incorporate the insights of their suppliers to create better plans and forecasts and more effectively respond to changing conditions. Retek has packaged Syncra Solution into three solutions which are available immediately. They are Retek Syncra Exchange which collects, transforms, manages and analyzes supply chain and demand chain data, Retek Promotion Planning which manages the life cycle of promotion, store openings and new product introductions, and Retek Co-Managed Inventory, a highly flexible web based planning engine that allows retailers and manufacturers to work together to improve order, planning and delivery. In addition, Syncra Systems brings a strong relationship with the world wide retail exchange. Retek is committed to continuing this support and relationship and offer a hosted solution based Retek Syncra technology. Retek promotion planning is currently powering the WWRE's collaborative planner solution. We look forward to the leverage that this product set will give us with both current and prospective clients.

最後補充一點：我們非常高興且期待能將Syncra Systems的技術與資產納入Retek應用套件之中。為了延伸我們的供應鏈管理產品，Retek於11月收購了Syncra的資產與負債。Syncra是CPSR技術的領先同級最佳（best of breed）供應商，該技術可讓零售商與供應商在促銷規劃、消費者需求預測與庫存管理方面協同合作。收購Syncra擴大了Retek供應鏈解決方案套件的涵蓋範圍，使零售商能納入供應商的洞察，以制定更佳的計畫與預測，並更有效地因應變動的環境。Retek已將Syncra解決方案封裝為三項可立即提供的解決方案。分別為：Retek Syncra Exchange（用於蒐集、轉換、管理與分析供應鏈與需求鏈資料）、Retek Promotion Planning（用於管理促銷活動、開店與新品導入的生命週期），以及Retek Co-Managed Inventory（一套高度彈性的網頁式規劃引擎，讓零售商與製造商共同合作，以改善訂單、規劃與交付）。此外，Syncra Systems也帶來與全球零售交易所（WWRE）的強大合作關係。Retek承諾將持續提供此支援與合作關係，並提供以Retek Syncra技術為基礎的託管式解決方案。Retek Promotion Planning目前正為WWRE的協同規劃師（collaborative planner）解決方案提供核心支援。我們期待這套產品組合能在現有與潛在客戶兩方面為我們帶來更大的槓桿效益。

With that I'd like to turn it over to Greg for a review of the financials.

接下來我想把時間交給 Greg，請他回顧一下財務表現。

Thanks, Marty and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Marty，各位早安。

Let me take a moment and echo Greg sentiments regarding our financial results. For the fourth quarter, our non-GAAP earnings per share totaled $0.07. Along with this marking our ninth quarter of sequential improvement, we have also recognized positive earnings in each of the quarters of 2004. Our operating income, excluding non-cash and nonoperating charges, increased by more than $22 million on a year-over-over basis.

我先花一點時間呼應 Greg 對我們財務結果的看法。第四季，我們的非 GAAP 每股盈餘合計為 0.07 美元。除了這是我們連續第九季逐季改善之外，我們也在 2004 年每一季都認列了正向獲利。我們的營業利益（排除非現金及非營業性費用）較去年同期增加超過 2,200 萬美元。

On a GAAP basis, our EPS totalled $0.08 for the quarter. This is the highest since becoming a public company. Revenue totaled $39.8 million in the fourth quarter, composed of $21.7 million of license and maintenance, and services of $18.1 million. License and maintenance revenue breaks down as follows, maintenance of $11 million, funded development of $1.5 million and software was the balance. While license and maintenance revenues was down sequentially, the fourth quarter represents the second consecutive quarter that signed contract values exceeded recognized license revenue, thus resulting in an increase of backlog for the quarter of over $5 million. We anticipate that we have seen the low end of revenue levels in the fourth quarter and we expect improvements throughout 2005. With improved license revenue visibility, we are anticipating total revenues to be in the range of $41 to $44 million for the first quarter with software license revenues in the $23 to $25 million range with an expected licensed revenue to be $3 to $5 million. For the quarter, gross margin levels held up well, exceeding 50 percent for the third consecutive quarter. Our services business continues to record strong results by leveraging our internal resources, displacing third-party contractors and maintaining high utilization rates. Also, license and maintenance gross margins continue to improve sequentially, driven by strong margin performance in maintenance and funded development revenues.

以 GAAP 基礎計算，本季每股盈餘為 0.08 美元。這是自我們成為上市公司以來的最高水準。第四季營收合計 3,980 萬美元，其中授權與維護收入 2,170 萬美元，服務收入 1,810 萬美元。授權與維護收入拆分如下：維護 1,100 萬美元、受資助開發 150 萬美元，其餘為軟體授權。雖然授權與維護收入較前一季下滑，但第四季已是連續第二季簽約合約金額高於已認列的授權收入，因此本季積壓訂單（backlog）增加超過 500 萬美元。我們預期第四季已是營收水準的低點，並預期 2005 年將逐季改善。在授權收入能見度提升下，我們預期第一季總營收將落在 4,100 萬至 4,400 萬美元區間，其中軟體授權收入約 2,300 萬至 2,500 萬美元，預期授權收入為 300 萬至 500 萬美元。本季毛利率表現穩健，連續第三季超過 50%。我們的服務業務持續透過運用內部資源、取代第三方承包商並維持高稼動率而繳出強勁成果。此外，授權與維護毛利率也持續逐季改善，主要受惠於維護與受資助開發收入的強勁毛利表現。

On an absolute basis, operating expenses declined slightly in the fourth quarter with an increase in G&A cost related to Sarbanes-Oxley compliance and year end accrual adjustments being offset by declines in research and development cost. We anticipate sales and marketing expense increases over the next several quarters as we augment our team within the go to market solution unit, as well as launch the marketing programs in the near term.

以絕對金額來看，第四季營業費用小幅下降；與《沙賓法案》（Sarbanes-Oxley）遵循相關的一般及行政（G&A）成本增加，以及年底應計調整所帶來的增加，被研發成本下降所抵銷。我們預期未來幾季銷售與行銷費用將增加，因為我們將在市場推進（go-to-market）解決方案事業單位擴編團隊，並在近期啟動行銷方案。

On a reported revenue basis, slightly over 60 percent came from North America with the balance to international. From a customer perspective, over 50 percent of licensed revenue was driven by a strategic customer base, 45 from tactical customers and other customers comprise less than 5 percent for the quarter. Head count during the quarter declined to 532 at the end from 551 as of September 30th. As we have previously discussed on other calls, these declines are the result of our realignment into our organization into solution unit structure. As we transition through this process, we identified areas of redundancy as well as areas that required headcount addition in order to augment the team. During the quarter, the number of quota carrying sales reps increased to 34 from 32 at the end of the prior quarter.

以已報告營收來看，略高於 60% 來自北美，其餘來自國際市場。從客戶角度來看，超過 50% 的授權收入由策略型客戶群帶動，45% 來自戰術型客戶，其他客戶本季占比不到 5%。本季期末員工人數由 9 月 30 日的 551 人降至 532 人。如同我們先前在其他電話會議中討論過的，這些下降是我們將組織重新調整為解決方案事業單位架構的結果。在轉型過程中，我們辨識出重複的職能領域，也辨識出為了強化團隊而需要增補人力的領域。本季具業績配額（quota）責任的業務代表人數由上一季期末的 32 人增加至 34 人。

From a cash flow and balance sheet perspective we had an exceptional quarter. During the quarter, we generated more than $16 million of cash flow to close out our second consecutive year of positive operating cash. As of December 31st, cash and investments totalled nearly $103 million, a $14 million increase from the third quarter and for the first time our cash balances exceeded $100 million since becoming a public company. This performance is particularly impressive since it included a cash outlay of nearly $5 million for the purchase of Syncra during the quarter. Deferred revenue increased nearly $4 million to $42 million as of the end of the fourth quarter.

從現金流與資產負債表角度來看，本季表現非常出色。本季我們創造超過 1,600 萬美元的現金流，並以此結束連續第二年營運現金流為正。截至 12 月 31 日，現金與投資合計接近 1.03 億美元，較第三季增加 1,400 萬美元，且自成為上市公司以來首次現金餘額超過 1 億美元。這項表現尤其令人印象深刻，因為其中包含本季為收購 Syncra 支出近 500 萬美元的現金。遞延收入增加近 400 萬美元，至第四季期末達 4,200 萬美元。

To repeat, our guidance for the first quarter of 2005, total revenue of $41 to $44 million, based on that top line performance, services margins at or slightly less than 30 percent and an increased spend in sales and marketing, we are expecting operational non-GAAP EPS to be in the 4 to 6 range for the quarter.

再次重申，我們對 2005 年第一季的指引為：總營收 4,100 萬至 4,400 萬美元；在此營收表現基礎上，服務毛利率約為 30% 或略低於 30%，且銷售與行銷支出增加，我們預期本季營運層面的非 GAAP 每股盈餘將落在 0.04 至 0.06 美元區間。

With that I'd like to turn it back over to Marty for some additional comments.

接下來我想把時間交回給 Marty，請他補充一些意見。

Thanks, Greg. Before we get to the question and answer section of this call, let me take a few minutes to give you my perspective on the environment as we move into 2005.

謝謝你，Greg。在進入本次電話會議的問答環節之前，我想先花幾分鐘談談我們邁入 2005 年時，對整體環境的看法。

In general, my management team and I are gaining confidence from what we are seeing in the marketplace. We believe the signs are pointing towards an environment in which retailers will increase their IT spend. We maintain our philosophy of cautious optimism and feel that the environment will modestly improve each quarter in 2005. While this holiday season was not the across-the-board homerun that the marketplace was anticipating, it did show pockets of strength good enough in the end, when what turned out to be a solid 2004 for many of the retailers that we work with. We believe that as retailers step off into 2005 their sentiments regarding IT investment will be driven by the confidence that they gained from their performance last year and their desire to drive similar levels of year-over-over growth.

整體而言，我和我的管理團隊從市場上看到的情況中，正逐步建立信心。我們相信跡象顯示零售商將增加其 IT 支出。我們維持審慎樂觀的理念，並認為 2005 年的環境將在每一季小幅改善。雖然這個假期旺季並非市場原先期待的全面大爆發，但確實呈現出一些強勢區塊，最終也讓我們合作的許多零售商在 2004 年交出穩健的成績。我們相信，當零售商邁入 2005 年時，其對 IT 投資的態度將受到去年業績所帶來的信心，以及希望推動類似年增率成長水準的意願所驅動。

While many of the industry analysts have said that IT spending has hit a budget inflection point, we prefer to take a more cautious approach in predicting the magnitude of this inflection. Though I do not endorse the exact numbers that some of the analysts are putting out there, I do believe directional the thesis is correct and increased spending will result from a significant pent up demand after what has been a long period of under investment in IT. For a great many retailers -- to a great extent many retailers have not been investing in technology since Y2K in the tech boom. Because levels did improve last year and year-over-year growth was less of an issue, there was less emphasis on technology investment. But the landscape is changing and we believe that there are several drivers of the new demand for IT investment. Certainly, excess retail capacity, replacement cycles in stores and the supply chain, as well as the emergence of science and intelligence in retail decisions are key drivers of the growth cycle that we are entering. But let's not discount what we refer to as the "Wal-Mart factor" and the pressure that they put on retailers to change business practices and set new standards. Also evident is the emergence of disruptive technologies and standards. RFID is a case in point.

儘管許多產業分析師表示 IT 支出已到達預算的拐點，我們仍傾向以更審慎的方式來預測此拐點的幅度。雖然我不認同部分分析師提出的精確數字，但我確實相信其方向性的論點是正確的：在長期 IT 投資不足之後，顯著的累積需求將帶動支出增加。對許多零售商而言——在很大程度上，許多零售商自千禧年（Y2K）科技榮景以來就未在技術上投入。由於去年水準有所改善，且年增成長不再是那麼大的問題，因此對技術投資的重視程度較低。但市場版圖正在改變，我們認為新的 IT 投資需求有數個驅動因素。零售產能過剩、門市與供應鏈的汰換週期，以及零售決策中科學化與智慧化的興起，都是我們即將進入之成長循環的關鍵驅動因素。但我們也不應低估我們所稱的「沃爾瑪因素（Wal-Mart factor）」以及其對零售商施加的壓力，迫使其改變商業作法並建立新標準。同時也可見顛覆性技術與標準的興起。RFID 就是一個例子。

While we believe that many were too optimistic about the amount of time and effort it would take to implement RFID technologies, this is a standard that we believe will change the landscape over the next 3 to 5 years. Our industry thesis that retailers will start to increase their spending on packaged retail applications in 2005 and beyond was very evident last week at the NRF conference, with a sharp increase in attendees and exhibitors from the previous years, as well as a significant increase in private meetings with customers and prospects. From what I saw, I believe that Retek had the largest sales presence and greatest number of new products at the conference. In many respects, last week's conference was a very successful re-coming out for our Xi best of rate enterprise products along with many of the existing critical parts of the solution set. We are hopeful that the interest we saw will translate into additional revenues for us over time.

雖然我們認為許多人對導入 RFID 技術所需的時間與投入過於樂觀，但我們相信這項標準將在未來 3 到 5 年改變產業版圖。我們「零售商將在 2005 年及之後開始增加對套裝零售應用軟體支出」的產業論點，上週在 NRF 大會上非常明顯：與往年相比，與會者與參展商大幅增加，且與客戶及潛在客戶的私下會議也顯著增加。就我所見，我相信 Retek 在會議上擁有最大的銷售陣容以及最多的新產品。在許多方面，上週的大會可說是我們 Xi 同級最佳（best of breed）企業產品，以及解決方案組合中許多既有關鍵部分的一次非常成功的重新亮相。我們希望我們看到的興趣能隨時間轉化為我們的額外營收。

But where do we believe the opportunities are in the near term? If last week's NRF conference in excellent New York City was any indication, the store was one of the big focuses on the show floor. With the recent introduction of Retek store and multichannel solutions, we believe that our more effective go to market strategy and the power of our product foot print align well with the demand that we are seeing from the marketplace. We believe that the point of sales and customer management applications will continue to offer us growth opportunities.

但那麼，在短期內我們認為機會在哪裡？如果上週在極佳的紐約市舉行的 NRF 大會有任何指標意義的話，門市端是展場上其中一個主要焦點。隨著近期推出 Retek 門市與多通路解決方案，我們相信更有效的市場進入策略，以及我們產品佈局的力量，與我們從市場端看到的需求高度契合。我們相信銷售點（POS）與客戶管理應用將持續為我們帶來成長機會。

Other products that we believe will offer expanded opportunities and will be accretive in fiscal 2005 revenues and earnings, are analytical solutions, such as mark down optimization, assortment planning and space optimization. Until now, this sector has been mostly served by small, private companies that have lacked the scale to be effective in this market. As a result of our solid technology base and the leverage of our business model, we believe this space opens new opportunities for Retek. The growth in our pipeline over the last few quarters supports this thesis. Supply chain and warehouse management will also offer opportunities in 2005 as retailers look to streamline operations and focus on expense management. We believe that the key areas of focus will be advanced inventory planning, labor and warehouse management, as well as inventory optimization.

我們認為其他將帶來擴大機會、並在 2005 會計年度的營收與獲利上具增益效果的產品，包括分析型解決方案，例如降價（markdown）最佳化、商品組合規劃與空間最佳化。迄今為止，這個領域多由規模較小的私人公司服務，而這些公司缺乏在此市場有效競爭所需的規模。憑藉我們穩固的技術基礎以及商業模式的槓桿效益，我們相信這個領域為 Retek 開啟了新的機會。過去幾季我們銷售管線的成長支持了這項論點。隨著零售商尋求精簡營運並聚焦費用管理，供應鏈與倉儲管理在 2005 年也將提供機會。我們相信關鍵的聚焦領域將是進階庫存規劃、勞動力與倉儲管理，以及庫存最佳化。

A recent acquisition of Syncra rounds out our offerings in CPFR and gives us leverage with both new and existing clients. On a final note, let me reiterate our growing confidence from the opportunities that we see in our business as we step off into 2005. We believe that we have taken the right steps to bring a fully integrated quality set of products to the market and deliver on what others in the industry are still only talking about. Internally, we have created a business model that has the scale and leverage to be successful in any type of business environment and we have organized a team of associates that can assure success. Externally, we believe there are several drivers that stimulate demand for retail package software applications and increase IT spend levels. Recently, an AMR analyst said in a research alert that Retek Xi changes the game. While this is true, I believe that we have changed the game in many more respects as we continue to reset the playing field and set the new standards in the industry.

近期收購 Syncra 使我們在 CPFR（協同規劃、預測與補貨）方面的產品更臻完整，並讓我們能同時在新客戶與既有客戶上發揮槓桿效益。最後我想再次強調，當我們邁入 2005 年之際，基於我們在業務中所看到的機會，我們的信心正持續提升。我們相信我們已採取正確步驟，將一套完全整合且高品質的產品帶到市場，並交付產業中其他人仍僅停留在口頭討論的成果。在內部，我們建立了一個具備規模與槓桿、能在任何類型商業環境中成功的商業模式，並組織了一支能確保成功的團隊。在外部，我們相信有數個驅動因素能刺激對零售套裝軟體應用的需求並提高 IT 支出水準。近期，一位 AMR 分析師在研究快訊中表示 Retek Xi 改變了遊戲規則。雖然這確實如此，但我相信，隨著我們持續重塑競爭場域並在產業中建立新標準，我們在更多層面上都已改變了遊戲規則。

I appreciate you all listening and now I think we are ready to open up for questions.

感謝各位的聆聽，現在我想我們已準備好開放提問。

Operator, before we open up to questions I would like to remind everybody to please limit their questions to two parts, one question and a follow-up and then please go back into queue in the interest of making sure that everybody gets a chance to ask their questions. So again limit it to only two parts to the question.

接線員，在我們開放提問之前，我想提醒大家，為了確保每個人都有機會提問，請將問題限制為兩個部分：一個問題加上一個追問，之後請回到隊列中。所以再次提醒，請將每次提問限制為僅兩個部分。

Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

接線員，我們現在準備開始接受提問。

[ Operator Instructions ] Your first question from Robin Roberts.

[ 接線員指示 ] 你的第一個問題來自 Robin Roberts。

Hi, Marty. You talk about the demand in the marketplace has been picking up. Can you give us some quantity -- quantitative measures in terms of how does your pipeline look compared to same quarter, same time last year and also sequentially in terms of size and/or the stages of the deal in the pipeline?

嗨，Marty。你提到市場需求正在回升。你能否提供一些量化指標——就你的銷售管線而言，與去年同一季、同一時間相比，以及按季相比，在規模和／或管線中交易所處階段方面是如何？

I think I mentioned that in my comments, Robin. If I compare it to a year ago, even the last two quarters, we are seeing significant increase in the pipeline. The number of folks that we get that are inquiring and want to come in and visit us is also growing as well. I'd say 2 to 3 times of where we were a year ago at this time.

我想我在評論中提到過，Robin。如果和一年前相比，甚至是最近兩個季度相比，我們看到銷售管線顯著增加。向我們詢問並希望來拜訪我們的人數也在增加。我會說大約是我們一年前此時的 2 到 3 倍。

Okay. And also along those lines you started to say that the market has been picking up in September quarter and also second half of '04 you released Xi. So when you put the two factors together plus your average selling cycle is about 9 to 12 months, does that mean that in looking forward starting in the June quarter we're really going to see acceleration in your revenue and also contract bookings?

好的。另外，沿著這個思路，你開始提到市場在 9 月季度回升，而且在 2004 年下半年你們發布了 Xi。所以把這兩個因素加在一起，再加上你們平均銷售週期約 9 到 12 個月，是否意味著往前看，從 6 月季度開始，我們真的會看到你們營收以及合約簽訂（bookings）加速？

I don't know that I would agree that our cycles, there is an average of 9 to12. It really depends on what products we are seeing. In some of the in-store applications we are seeing cycles that are faster than that. So the real challenge is going to be what are retailers going to do in terms of spend. A year ago people thought we were overly conservative when a lot of the market was saying that 2004 was the year that tech was really going to take off. We are seeing the same cautiousness from all our customers and prospects that we saw last year. They certainly have money that they're budgeting but it's not been approved to spend. So we're going to have to monitor that over time and see if they start unleashing some of these funds to spend over the course of the year. So we do believe that it's going to increase. I just can't nail down exactly when and in what quarter we think people are going to get enough confidence to do more things and spend more money.

我不確定我是否同意我們的週期平均是 9 到 12 個月。這其實取決於我們看到的是哪些產品。在某些門市端應用上，我們看到的週期比那更快。因此真正的挑戰將是零售商在支出方面會怎麼做。一年前，當市場上很多人都在說 2004 年將是科技真正起飛的一年時，人們認為我們過於保守。我們從所有客戶與潛在客戶身上看到的謹慎態度，與去年相同。他們當然有編列預算，但尚未核准支出。因此我們必須隨時間推移持續觀察，看看他們是否會在一年當中開始釋放部分資金來支出。所以我們確實相信它會增加。只是我無法精確鎖定到底何時、在哪一個季度，人們會有足夠信心去做更多事情並花更多錢。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question from Phil Allings.

下一個問題來自 Phil Allings。

Hi. Phillip here at Bear Stearns. Just wanted to get a better sense on expectations for the gross margins going forward you had. An improvement in the gross margin line particularly with respect to software licenses. How should we be modeling that going forward?

嗨。我是 Bear Stearns 的 Phillip。我想更清楚了解你們對未來毛利率的預期。你們的毛利率線，特別是軟體授權方面，有所改善。我們在往後應該如何建模（預估）？

As I talked about we saw some good improvement around maintenance, as well as the funded. On a modeling basis we've kind of always given guidance in something to the low 70's. So 70, 71, maybe next quarter, slightly increasing going forward. And then looking at services margins again, around 30.

如我所談到的，我們在維護收入以及 funded（已資金支持的部分）方面看到一些不錯的改善。就建模而言，我們一向給的指引大致在 70% 出頭。所以 70、71，也許下季，往後略為上升。至於服務毛利率，再次大約在 30% 左右。

So you saw an increase in your deferred revenue this quarter. In the past you've sort of given a sense of where you thought that was headed going forward. What can you tell us at this point as far as deferred going forward?

所以你們本季遞延收入增加了。過去你們曾大致說明你們認為未來走向會如何。就遞延收入往後的情況，你目前能告訴我們什麼？

Again, what I would anticipate around deferred is we, something around $40 million, somewhere in the range of the high 30s to the low 40s. I think we're within that range where we'd expect it to be. Bounce around $4 to $5 million, around that number.

同樣地，對於遞延收入，我預期大約在 4,000 萬美元左右，約落在 3,000 多萬美元後段到 4,000 多萬美元初段的區間。我認為我們就在我們預期的範圍內。大概會在 400 萬到 500 萬美元之間上下波動，圍繞那個水準。

So you're not expecting it to be up in the next couple of quarters?

所以你們不預期接下來幾個季度會再往上？

No. No. Again it's driven by cash collections ahead of revenues. So I would anticipate it again being somewhere right around $40 million.

不。不。同樣地，這是由於現金收款早於收入認列所驅動。因此我仍預期它大致會在 4,000 萬美元左右。

All right. Do you have any sense at this point where head count may end up at the end of the year?

好的。你目前是否大致知道，到年底員工人數可能會落在什麼水準？

Hey, Phil? Can I ask you to please just go back into queue? That was the second part. We'd like to make sure we get more people on the line.

嗨，Phil？我可以請你先回到等候隊列嗎？那是第二個部分。我們想確保有更多人能加入通話。

Fair enough. Thanks.

可以理解。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Andre [Glucal].

下一個問題來自 Andre [Glucal]。

Yes. Thank you. Two questions. Greg, was the focus being for '05 on point solutions, do you anticipate the average duration of average time over which you work as a contracter to go down?

是的。謝謝。兩個問題。Greg，既然 2005 年的重點是單點解決方案（point solutions），你是否預期你們以承包商身分工作的平均合約期間／平均投入時間會縮短？

We're certainly not seeing it in the near term, talking about 3 and 4 Q. We continue to see probably on average the items that are recognized related to the spread around 5 quarters.

我們在短期內確實沒有看到這種情況，這裡指的是第 3 季和第 4 季。我們仍然看到，平均而言，與遞延攤提相關、被認列的項目大約分散在 5 個季度左右。

Okay. And then, secondly, now that the Xi is out, do you expect the funded R&D will keep growing as a percent of rating and as a percentage of booking?

好的。第二個問題，現在 Xi 已經推出，你是否預期由客戶資助的研發（funded R&D）會持續成長，無論是占營收的百分比，或占訂單（booking）的百分比？

Again, on that it has more to do with the relation of deals that were signed in nearing the end of 2004 and 3 and 4Q and the reason we're expecting a pickup in $3 to $5 million next quarter is related to deals signed earlier in the year. Most of the business signing 2005, that would be queued up and delivered late in '05 into '06.

同樣地，這更多取決於在 2004 年接近年底、以及第 3、4 季簽下的交易之組合關係；而我們預期下季會增加 300 萬到 500 萬美元，則與年初簽下的交易有關。至於 2005 年簽下的大多數業務，會排入佇列並在 2005 年底到 2006 年期間交付。

Operator, next question.

接線員，下一個問題。

Your next question comes from Peter Coleman. Mr. Coleman, your line is now open.

下一個問題來自 Peter Coleman。Coleman 先生，您的線路已開通。

Thanks, guys. Marty, just sort of following up on the gross margin question, not necessarily talking about the numbers per se, but how much of that can you contribute to your ability to sort of walk away or manage some of the projects in the past that might have not been as profitable and sort of what are you seeing generally speaking in the marketplace from a pricing perspective?

謝謝，各位。Marty，我想延續毛利率的問題，不一定是談數字本身，而是其中有多少可以歸因於你們有能力在某種程度上抽身、或管理過去一些可能沒那麼獲利的專案？另外，從定價角度來看，你們整體上在市場上看到什麼趨勢？

Well, Peter, I think I made it pretty public when I came on board a couple years ago that I believe that Retek had gotten into some areas that were really outside the core confidence. We were taking on some of the bigger integration engagements and we were primed. Where we are right now is that, if it's a big deal we have strategic partners we work with. So I believe we've got this aligned into the space where we should be. Our involvement is around product configuration, product expertise, deep retail deals, those kind of things. I'm comfortable with where we are at. What I'm seeing in the market is that people are continuing to break up into smaller chunks. Where 2 or 3 years ago they would swallow a $25 or $30 million project. Right now they are breaking up into buying cycles. It's more of a $5 to $10 million mentality. That doesn't mean they're not going to add multiple phases to this that eventually get there to the $25 or $30 million number. It's just that they're putting in a piece of the time and looking for a, kind of a 6 to 12 month pay back and I would anticipate that discipline to continue to be there for quite some time.

Peter，我想我在兩年前加入時就相當公開地表示，我認為 Retek 進入了一些真正超出核心能力範圍的領域。我們承接了一些更大型的整合案，而我們也已經準備就緒。我們目前的做法是：如果是大型案子，我們會與策略夥伴合作。因此我相信我們已把定位調整到應該在的範圍。我們的參與主要圍繞在產品設定、產品專業、深度零售專案等這類事情。我對我們目前的位置感到放心。我在市場上看到的是，客戶持續把專案拆成更小的區塊。兩、三年前他們可能會一口氣吞下 2,500 萬或 3,000 萬美元的專案。但現在他們把它拆成不同的採購週期。更像是 500 萬到 1,000 萬美元的心態。這不代表他們不會在後續加入多個階段，最終仍達到 2,500 萬或 3,000 萬美元的規模。只是他們會先做其中一部分，並尋求大約 6 到 12 個月的回收期；我預期這種紀律在相當長一段時間內都會持續。

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. I don't remember if you mentioned on the call anything about your efforts into the mid-market and how that may have looked in the quarter.

了解。再追問一個很快的問題。我不記得你是否在電話會議中提到你們在中型市場（mid-market）的推進工作，以及本季表現如何？

The mid-market was solid and we continue to push into that. We are not making a change there. That's a long term and as a team that's focused and dedicated to going after it, we believe it's good business for us. We've had some very successful announcements with engagements like the Gymboree. So that continues to be part of our focus and will be moving forward.

中型市場表現穩健，我們也會持續推進。我們不會在這方面做出改變。這是長期策略，而且我們有一個專注且投入的團隊在開拓；我們相信這對我們是門好生意。我們也有一些非常成功的公告，例如像 Gymboree 這樣的合作案。因此這仍會是我們的重點之一，並會持續往前推進。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Your next question comes from Brad Whitt.

下一個問題來自 Brad Whitt。

Good morning. I guess getting back to Andre's question a little bit. Marty, you mentioned the three areas of near term opportunity and those sound mostly like point solutions. Is it correct to assume you'll be recognizing more of what you book during the quarter? Over the next couple quarters?

早安。我想稍微回到 Andre 的問題。Marty，你提到短期機會的三個領域，聽起來大多是單點解決方案。是否可以假設你們在季度內會認列更多當季所簽下的訂單？在接下來幾個季度？

It really depends on the size of the overhead and what kind of stuff that we're being asked to do in addition to that. So you know if it's a pure stand alone where they take our stuff and run it off the shelf, we would recognize in the quarter there are some, I think, some sensitivities now with the Sarbanes-Oxley stuff that are more conservative when auditors look at what we're doing. If we continue to kind of do significant engagements even though it's around a point solution, we may also have to spread it. I don't think there's an assumption that says because we're just selling a point of sale deal or a supply chain planning deal, that we're going to take it as point. It really comes down to what we're doing around it, what kind of enhancements we are doing and customizations we're doing and that's going to dictate whether we spread it or take it as a point.

這真的取決於專案的規模（overhead）以及除了那之外客戶還要求我們做哪些事情。所以你知道，如果是純粹的獨立案子，他們直接採用我們的產品、像買現成品一樣上架就用，我們就會在當季認列；但我認為現在因為《薩班斯—奧克斯利法案》（Sarbanes-Oxley）相關要求，審計師在檢視我們的作法時會更保守，因而存在一些敏感性。如果我們仍在做相當程度的專案投入，即便是圍繞單點解決方案，我們也可能必須攤提認列。我不認為可以假設：因為我們只是賣一個 POS（銷售點）案子或供應鏈規劃案子，就一定會一次性認列。關鍵在於我們在周邊做了什麼、做了哪些增強與客製化；這將決定我們是攤提認列，還是一次性認列。

Okay. And then another question, I know you said your book to bill was positive the last two quarters of this year. But year-over-year it looks like your bookings are down about 45 percent. I'm just curious do you have, what is the backlog going into this year look like compared to going in last year and since revenue did decline or software revenue did decline sequentially every quarter in '04, I'm curious as to how do we get to a positive increase in '05 quarter over quarter?

了解。另外一個問題，我知道你說今年最後兩季的接單／出貨比（book-to-bill）是正向的。但若以年對年來看，你們的訂單金額似乎下滑約 45%。我想了解的是：今年年初的在手訂單（backlog）相較於去年年初看起來如何？而且既然 2004 年營收（或軟體營收）每一季都呈現連續下滑，我也想知道 2005 年要如何做到季度對季度的正成長？

We talked about that. We anticipated, as we had into the end of the year that based upon contract value and recognizing those revenues that we would kind of hit the bottom trough in 4Q. We believe that's where we are. Regarding the year-over-year comparison, on a year-over-year comparison actuals, we have backlogged about $8 million.

我們談過這點。我們預期在年底時，基於合約價值以及這些收入的認列節奏，我們會在第 4 季觸底。我們相信現在就是那個位置。至於年對年的比較，以實際數字來看，我們的在手訂單大約少了 800 萬美元。

I'm sorry. You're off about $8 million?

抱歉。你的意思是少了大約 800 萬美元？

About $8 million from where we ended up.

大約少了 800 萬美元，相較於我們最後的結果。

So $8 million less in the backlog as you enter the year? From a year ago?

所以，當你進入新年度時，積壓訂單（backlog）比去年同期少了800萬美元？相較於一年前？

Correct. And then we talked about the trend in the recent quarters that obviously have all been positive to that.

正確。然後我們也談到最近幾個季度的趨勢，顯然在那方面都是正向的。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Your next question comes from Mark Verbeck.

下一個問題來自 Mark Verbeck。

Thank you. Can you give us a little more color in terms of the specific products that you are selling? Which versions -- are people all going with Xi at this point or previous -- are some people still going with the previous version? You mentioned Best Buy buy POS. What other kinds of applications are we seeing selling in the quarter?

謝謝。你能否就你們正在銷售的具體產品提供更多細節？哪些版本——目前大家是否都選擇 Xi，還是之前的版本——是否仍有人採用舊版？你提到 Best Buy 購買 POS。本季我們還看到哪些類型的應用在銷售？

We still continue to sell big portions of our suite. We still had sales in merch. If you're asking me what appears to be hotter and I base that on pipeline, I would say definitely the in-store stuff. So point of sale, absolutely. We believe we're on the front end of a replacement cycle there. Most of the people that are out in the retail market, their solutions are 15-20 years old. They're generally old IBM or NCR application. So we look for traction continued there. For folks that have kind of made a foundation part of the business investments over the last couple years, things like inventory management and PO management, those guys are more interested in the optimization suite. So we get into that markdown pricing, shelf optimization, some of the demand forecasting. That's the next thing on their agenda. So I'd say those would be areas that we see growing pipeline. Supply chain and merch kind of remains steady and that stuff we predicted a year ago, that demand was going to be there but was going to be steady. We didn't think we would see big percent increase and the demand going up. And so far, that's pretty much played out.

我們仍持續銷售我們套件中的很大一部分。我們在商品管理（merch）方面仍有銷售。如果你問我哪些看起來更熱、而我以銷售管線（pipeline）為依據，我會說絕對是店內（in-store）相關的東西。所以，銷售點（POS）當然是。我們相信我們正處於那裡汰換週期的前端。多數在零售市場的業者，他們的解決方案已有15到20年歷史。通常是舊的 IBM 或 NCR 應用程式。因此我們預期那裡會持續有動能。至於過去幾年已把某些基礎投資納入業務的客戶，例如庫存管理與採購單（PO）管理，這些客戶對最佳化套件更感興趣。因此我們會切入降價（markdown）定價、貨架最佳化、以及部分需求預測。那是他們下一步的議程。所以我會說，這些是我們看到管線成長的領域。供應鏈與商品管理大致維持穩定，而這也符合我們一年前的預期：需求會存在，但會是穩定的。我們不認為會看到需求大幅百分比成長。到目前為止，基本上也確實如此。

Okay. And then specifically, what are you seeing in terms of RFID?

好的。那麼具體來說，你們在 RFID 方面看到什麼情況？

You know, we see a lot more pilots. We're involved in some of the pilots. I think the hype that was released 18 to 24 months ago, people have gotten beyond that and the reality has set in. RFID is a great technology but still a ways off from people really using it in driving forward.

你知道的，我們看到更多的試點（pilot）。我們也參與其中一些試點。我認為18到24個月前釋出的那波炒作（hype），大家已經走過去了，現實也逐漸浮現。RFID 是很棒的技術，但距離大家真正用它來推動業務前進，仍然還有一段路。

Frankly, because the infrastructure requirements to put in RFID are huge. So if we have suppliers and retailers that want to go on a pilot, it's pretty easy if we pick off a few thousand items and then we can manually do things as needed for RFID. If I take that into situations where I'm blowing it out from 100,000 to millions of SKUs, you've got to think through systems where every place they have a UPC number they now have to put an EPC. And we're talking for big clients thousands of programs in their current legacy that are going to have to be adjusted. That's still way off. We are coming out with some offerings over the course of the next 12 to18 months that will ease burden and try help with the transition to the foundation.

坦白說，因為導入 RFID 的基礎設施需求非常龐大。所以如果供應商與零售商想做試點，只要挑出幾千個品項，然後我們視需要以人工方式處理 RFID 相關作業，這很容易。但如果把它擴大到從10萬到數百萬個 SKU 的情境，你必須思考系統層面：凡是原本有 UPC 編碼的地方，現在都得改放 EPC。而對大型客戶而言，他們現有的舊系統（legacy）中有成千上萬個程式需要調整。這仍然還很遙遠。我們將在未來12到18個月內推出一些產品/方案，以減輕負擔並協助過渡到這個基礎架構。

But that's still the big chore. The technology is great. The price is coming down. It's going to have to come down a little bit faster and quicker before people really take off and can afford this to do across all their SKUs.

但那仍是最大的苦差事。技術很棒。價格正在下降。不過在大家真正起飛、並且有能力把它擴展到所有 SKU 之前，價格還必須再更快、更大幅度地下來一些。

Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.

好的。很好。非常感謝。

Your next question comes from Catriona Fallon. Ms. Fallon, your line is now open.

下一個問題來自 Catriona Fallon。Fallon 女士，您的線路已開通。

Excuse me about that. Just had a quick clarification question on the funded R&D? Did you say that for the March quarter you are expecting that to be between $3-5 million?

不好意思剛剛那樣。我有個關於受資助研發（funded R&D）的快速釐清問題。你是說你們預期3月季度會在300萬到500萬美元之間嗎？

Correct.

正確。

Okay. And just a quick follow-up and then I have a question on the competition. Percent of the deferred revenue that is product revenue. So the percent of the $42 million in total deferred that actually comes out in product revenue?

好的。再快速追問一下，然後我有一個關於競爭的問題。遞延收入（deferred revenue）中屬於產品收入的比例。也就是總遞延4,200萬美元中，實際會轉為產品收入的比例是多少？

Approximately 40 plus percent.

大約40%以上。

Okay. Great. And then my last question just around what you're seeing competitively. So I know on The Limited deal that SAP and Manugistics won, and I think JDA had a piece in there as well. It was my understanding that you were also talking to The Limited and I'm wondering what was it about that deal that either made you walk away or you've seen price competition and then specifically on SAP, how are you seeing them go after the retail space and how are you fighting that off and do the point solutions help you there?

好的。很好。最後一個問題是關於你們看到的競爭態勢。我知道在 The Limited 那筆案子上，是 SAP 和 Manugistics 得標，我想 JDA 也有參與其中一部分。我的理解是你們也曾與 The Limited 接洽，我想知道那筆交易是什麼原因讓你們選擇退出，或是你們看到價格競爭；另外特別針對 SAP，你們如何看他們切入零售領域、你們如何應對，而點式解決方案（point solutions）是否能在那裡幫到你們？

I'll be glad to address that. Everybody knows that we don't comment on particular customers, clients, or prospects. So you have to ask The Limited. I'm not aware of any announcements they made there. Our view on the marketplace, it continues to be very aggressive out there. Continues to be a buyer's market. We're seeing some shake out out there. The little guys are finding it hard to make money and continuing to take market shares. So I think you'll see consolidation there.

我很樂意回應。大家都知道我們不評論特定客戶、客戶端或潛在客戶。所以你得去問 The Limited。我不清楚他們是否有任何相關公告。我們對市場的看法是：外部競爭仍然非常激烈。仍然是買方市場。我們也看到一些洗牌正在發生。小型業者發現很難賺錢、也很難持續取得市占。所以我認為你會看到產業整併。

On SAP in general, they continue to say they're going to focus on retail. This is nothing new. This is something that we've been -- had a competitive landscape for the last 8 or 9 years. Those kind of things are going to continue to be out there. I would suspect the market will continue to shake out. You'll see more of the little guys falling by the way side. There will be more consolidation as people find ways to leverage their cost base across greater revenue. So I don't expect that to change. I expect it to kind of, that's what we're seeing over the course of the next 24 to 36 months.

就 SAP 整體而言，他們持續表示要聚焦零售。這並不新鮮。這是我們在過去8到9年一直面對的競爭態勢。這類情況會持續存在。我預期市場會繼續洗牌。你會看到更多小型業者逐漸被淘汰。隨著大家尋找方法把成本基礎攤到更大的營收規模上，將會出現更多整併。所以我不預期這會改變。我預期在未來24到36個月，我們看到的就是這樣的走勢。

Great. Thank you.

很好。謝謝。

Your next question from Alan Weinfeld.

下一個問題來自 Alan Weinfeld。

Hi, guys. Can you talk a little bit about the optimization area. I heard something about optimization time. That's a business where seniors competitors do a good deal of business with older solutions. What kind of opportunities do you see there towards longer term?

嗨，各位。你們能談談最佳化（optimization）這個領域嗎？我聽到一些關於最佳化時程（optimization time）的說法。那是一個資深競爭對手用較舊解決方案也能做出不少生意的業務。從較長期來看，你們在那裡看到哪些機會？

Sure. Like I mentioned earlier, if you've made some investments where you're already replacing a lot of what we call some of the foundation merchandising systems, the optimization suite is where you go next. The reason we're excited about it, Alan, is the fact that we bring integration there. So if we go into things like assortment optimization or markdown optimization, we feed that back into the our pricing solutions and PO solutions and take advantage of what other people, of what customers have already installed. When the smaller guys come in, there's certainly some good players that have some good solutions out there but tend to focus just on an area, markdown optimization as an example. When you really look at improving the bottom lines of a retailer, it's not just about markdowns and many people get caught up in that. Our approach is broader based than that. We actually start with pricing optimization and try to remind people although there's good money to be made in markdowns, the first goal is to get the number markdowns down before you start figuring out how to not mark it down as much. Things like price, promo and markdown have got to be taken together along with inventory optimization to make sure we have not so much product on the shelve that markdowns is a huge deal. So we are actually bringing more of an integrated suite and then feeding that back to purchasing so that we don't overbuy. We really believe that's the edge that we have over these other guys that just have isolated solution sets that they are selling as one off.

當然。如同我先前提到的，如果你已經做了一些投資，正在替換我們所稱的一些基礎商品管理系統，那麼下一步就是導入最佳化套件。我們對此感到興奮的原因，Alan，在於我們能在那裡提供整合。因此，當我們切入例如品類/商品組合最佳化或降價（markdown）最佳化時，我們會把結果回饋到我們的定價解決方案與採購單（PO）解決方案中，並善用客戶既有已安裝的其他系統。當一些較小的廠商進來時，確實有些不錯的玩家提供不錯的解決方案，但往往只聚焦在某一個領域，例如降價最佳化。但當你真正要改善零售商的獲利底線時，並不只是降價而已，很多人會陷在這一點上。我們的方法比那更全面。我們其實是從定價最佳化開始，並試著提醒大家：雖然降價確實有不錯的獲利空間，但第一個目標是先把需要降價的次數/數量降下來，然後才去思考如何不要降那麼多。價格、促銷與降價必須與庫存最佳化一起整體考量，確保貨架上不會有過多商品，以致降價變成很大的問題。因此我們帶來的是更整合的套件，並把結果回饋到採購端，避免過度採購。我們真的相信，這就是我們相較於那些只賣單點、孤立解決方案組合的競爭對手所具備的優勢。

Question for Greg. There's 5 percent solution this quarter and I'm just wondering what solutions could become such a large number that it's really going to hurt recognized revenues -- lower recognized revenues in '05. Can you talk to what percentage you think point solutions get up to by the end of '05 and how that impacts the revenue recognition?

有個問題想問 Greg。本季有 5% 來自解決方案（solutions），我想知道哪些解決方案可能會變成這麼大的比重，以至於會影響已認列營收——也就是在 2005 年造成已認列營收降低。你能談談你認為到 2005 年底單點解決方案（point solutions）的占比可能會到多少，以及這對營收認列有何影響嗎？

Thanks, Allen. First let me clarify. When I talked about 5 percent coming from our other customer base, that's not strategic or tactical customers. That other, when I talk 5 percent represents customers that are not -- I'll call nontraditional retail tech customers. On a point solutions basis for the quarter, I think the number we took was somewhere between 10 and 15 percent of total -- of licensed revenues in the quarter and we were given guidance that said we anticipate the number moving around and being anywhere between 10 and 20 percent. We're right in the middle of that range again. We would anticipate a similar type number going forward.

謝謝你，Allen。我先澄清一下。我提到 5% 來自我們其他客戶基礎時，那不是策略型或戰術型客戶。我所說的那個「其他」5%，代表的是——我稱之為非傳統零售科技客戶。就本季的單點解決方案而言，我認為我們計入的比例大約介於總授權營收的 10% 到 15% 之間；而我們先前給的指引是，預期這個數字會在 10% 到 20% 之間波動。我們這次又落在這個區間的中間位置。我們預期未來也會維持類似的水準。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Edward [Hamilglan].

下一個問題來自 Edward [Hamilglan]。

Hi, Marty. Just had a question that relates more the relative proportion now that you're seeing selling into new customers versus your existing customer base. Where are you see more activity at and what would be your desired percentage?

嗨，Marty。我有個問題，主要是關於你們現在看到的：對新客戶銷售與對既有客戶基礎銷售的相對占比。你們在哪一邊看到更多活動？你們理想的比例會是多少？

Sure. There's a huge opportunity for us in our current customer base. Even you hear great talk about strategic customers which means they are using a bigger part of our foot print. We have 29 sellable solutions. The average customer has 8. So we certainly see a big opportunity and we're going to continue to harvest that. It's my belief though that we've got to continue to add new customers to the pipeline or eventually not having new customers is going to catch up to you. Our internal goal is to be at at least 50 percent to 60 percent new customers compared to old customers. Now the last quarters we didn't meet that. I think that was the sign of some of the toughness out there in the industry, which is why we are so happy about what we're able to post this quarter. But at a minimum what we are really shooting for is a 50/50 mix.

當然。我們在現有客戶基礎中有非常大的機會。你也常聽到大家談策略型客戶，意思是他們使用了我們更大範圍的產品版圖。我們有 29 個可銷售的解決方案。平均每位客戶使用 8 個。所以我們確實看到很大的機會，而且會持續去收割這些機會。但我也相信，我們必須持續把新客戶加入銷售管道，否則最終缺乏新客戶會反噬你。我們內部目標是：新客戶相對於舊客戶至少要達到 50% 到 60%。不過最近幾季我們沒有達到。我認為那反映了產業環境的艱難，這也是為什麼我們對本季能交出這樣的成績感到很高興。但至少，我們真正想達成的是 50/50 的組合。

Do you feel I guess the last few quarters or maybe the last year you've seen kind of like less in the way of the larger core merchandising systems. Do you think that's -- you need to see an environment that's good for those to start getting more penetration or do you think you're going to get more penetration and new customers from just the point solutions?

我想問的是，你是否覺得過去幾季或可能過去一年，你們在較大型、核心的商品管理系統（core merchandising systems）方面的案子變少了？你認為——需要等到這類環境變好，才會有更多滲透率嗎？還是你覺得你們會主要靠單點解決方案來取得更多滲透率與新客戶？

I don't think we need merch to take off to get new customers, if that's what you're asking. In fact, it's the other way. As we re-jiggered the organization and went after more of the solution unit approach, specifically going after new customers was one of the main drivers of this. Because I felt there were lots of opportunity that weren't tied to merch that we weren't getting invited to for a couple of reasons. One we weren't getting out there and telling people about what we had in the strength of our offering here. So I would actually say that focusing on some of the other non-merch areas should hopefully yield more customers for us than if we were just focusing on merch as the primary selling target and then if things like point of sale or fell off of it, going and seeing if we could get this business. Today we have teams that are motivated and quoted based on selling their solution units produces. So for me, that should drive up our opportunity to bring on more new customers.

如果你的問題是這個，我不認為我們需要商品管理（merch）業務起飛才能拿到新客戶。事實上，反而相反。當我們重新調整組織、採取更偏向解決方案事業單位（solution unit）的做法時，特別是鎖定新客戶就是其中一個主要驅動因素。因為我覺得有很多機會並不與 merch 綁在一起，而我們因為幾個原因沒有被邀請參與。其中一個原因是，我們沒有走出去讓市場知道我們在這裡的產品力道與供給強度。所以我會說，把重心放在一些非 merch 的領域，應該能為我們帶來比只把 merch 當作主要銷售目標更多的新客戶；而不是先賣 merch，然後像 POS 之類的再順帶看看能不能拿到。現在我們有一些團隊，他們的動機與配額（quota）是以銷售其解決方案事業單位的產品為基礎。所以對我來說，這應該會提高我們帶進更多新客戶的機會。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Richard Williams.

下一個問題來自 Richard Williams。

Hi. Good quarter. I wonder if you could give us sequential currencies impact on top line and bottom line?

嗨。這一季表現不錯。我想請問你們能否提供匯率對營收（top line）與獲利（bottom line）的季比影響？

No, I don't have that data.

不，我沒有那份資料。

Hey, Rich? I don't have that in front of me. We'll have to get back to you off line on that.

嘿，Rich？我手邊沒有那個數據。我們得在會後再私下回覆你。

Okay. And secondly, any color on how some of the smaller competitors, potential competitors are doing now?

好的。第二個問題，能否談談一些較小的競爭者、潛在競爭者目前的狀況？

We could probably spend all day on it. Let me just comment in general on a few big ones that over the last 18 months people have asked me about. The smaller guys that we refer to as kind of the ankle biters, some of them are kind of doing okay, others are not. Certainly a year ago at this time people were pointing out what they thought with the bonds and their announcement around Staples is going to be a competitor to our more traditional merchandise offerings. My understand is that they are struggling quite a bit and they've had layoffs. Guys like ProfitLogics and Manugistics. Manu is struggling. Guys like Itu are struggling. ProfitLogics seems to be doing just okay. I don't think any of them are seeing some of the headlines and boom! They were a year ago when they were focused on just gobbling up market share and were doing it at the expense of cost and profitability -- or price and profitability. These guys matured more. We knew it was just a matter of time before they had to start making money and we think here in the last 3 quarters that reality set home and it's a much different landscape for those guys. So they have challenging times moving forward.

我們大概可以講上一整天。我先就過去 18 個月大家常問到的幾個較大的對象，做一些概括性的評論。我們稱之為「小麻煩」（ankle biters）的那些小廠，有些還算做得不錯，有些則不然。當然，一年前的這個時候，大家指出他們認為 Bonds 以及他們與 Staples 相關的公告，會成為我們較傳統商品管理產品的競爭者。據我了解，他們目前相當吃力，而且已經裁員。像 ProfitLogics 和 Manugistics 這些。Manu 的狀況很掙扎。像 Itu 這些也很掙扎。ProfitLogics 看起來只是還可以。我不認為他們任何一家還能看到一年前那種頭條式的爆發成長。當時他們只專注於吞食市占，並且以成本與獲利能力——或者說以價格與獲利能力——為代價。這些公司現在更成熟了。我們早就知道，他們遲早得開始賺錢；而我們認為在最近 3 個季度，這個現實已經真正落地，對他們而言的競爭版圖已經大不相同。因此他們未來會面臨具挑戰性的時期。

Just as the data points relate to NRF. Anything else besides NRF pointing to a trough at the current quarter?

正如這些數據點與 NRF 相關。除了 NRF 之外，還有其他任何跡象顯示本季可能觸底嗎？

A trough?

觸底？

Yeah. Just NRF seemed to kind of brighten people's spirits. I was just curious if there's anything else that would corroborate that?

對。只是 NRF 似乎有點提振了大家的士氣。我只是好奇是否還有其他因素可以佐證這一點？

The -- where people ended up in the holiday times was after a good Thanksgiving weekend things really fell off hard and people started to panic. We felt in the last couple weeks of the holiday season it did come back fairly strong and we ended up with a pretty good holiday season. So that's another thing we bank it on. What's the attitude of the business people and the executives moving forward and they're generally upbeat. They now have a challenge on their hands, obviously. And some of the reasons for our opinions moving forward is that in 2004 they were comping up against very weak 2003 and 2002. Because what we believe 2004 will end up being a very solid year for most people. They're going to be under pressure to again grow their businesses and it's going to be comping up against a pretty good 2004. So to some extent people get to kind of take a breather in 2004 and 2005 the pressure is going to be back on on each of these teams on what they're going to do to grow their business.

在假期期間，人們的情況是：在一個不錯的感恩節週末之後，情勢真的急轉直下，大家開始恐慌。我們覺得在假期季最後幾週，情況確實相當強勁地回升，最後我們的假期季表現相當不錯。所以這也是我們所倚賴的一個因素。至於企業人士與高階主管接下來的態度，他們整體上普遍樂觀。當然，他們現在手上也面臨挑戰。而我們對未來看法的一些原因是：2004 年他們是在與非常疲弱的 2003 年與 2002 年做比較。因此我們相信 2004 年最終對多數人而言會是非常穩健的一年。他們將再次承受成長業務的壓力，而且比較基期會是一個表現相當不錯的 2004 年。所以在某種程度上，大家在 2004 年可以稍微喘口氣，而到了 2005 年，壓力就會再度回到這些團隊身上：他們要如何讓業務成長。

Thanks a lot. Good luck!

非常感謝。祝你好運！

Again, to ask a question please press star then the number 1 on the telephone keypad. Your next question comes from Jim Yin.

再次提醒，如要提問，請在電話鍵盤上按星號再按 1。下一個問題來自 Jim Yin。

Yes. Thanks. Do you think your booking number for the last quarter was at any reflection of a budget flux at your end? If it is, do you expect this quarter booking number to be sequentially increase or decreasing as of last quarter? Thank you.

是的。謝謝。你認為上季的預訂（booking）數字是否反映了你們端的預算波動？如果是的話，你預期本季的預訂數字相較上季會呈現連續性增加還是減少？謝謝。

To answer the first part of the question, I guess the question is more on seasonality and we traditionally have not seen seasonality. That fourth quarter for us is traditionally higher than any other quarter. Regarding the forward-looking on contract value, we don't provide that type of guidance going forward.

先回答問題的第一部分，我想這個問題比較是在問季節性，而我們傳統上並未看到季節性。對我們而言，第四季傳統上會高於其他任何季度。至於對未來合約價值的展望，我們不提供那類型的前瞻性指引。

Operator, we'd like just one more question, okay?

接線員，我們只想再接一個問題，好嗎？

Your next question is a follow-up question from Robin Roberts.

下一個問題是 Robin Roberts 的追問。

Hi. When you look at your pipeline and a lot of different solutions unit, which solution unit do you think will be the major contributor of license or contract booking growth going forward and will you quantify that?

嗨。當你看你們的商機管道（pipeline）以及許多不同的解決方案事業單位時，你認為未來哪個解決方案事業單位會是授權或合約預訂成長的主要貢獻者？你能量化嗎？

I think earlier I talked about where my motion comes from and that's based on pipeline. So the in-store areas to our point of sale and customer or management areas, we expect will continue to grow. And then the planning and optimization solution unit again because of what I talked about, the need of people to really start figuring out not just what they'll mark down, how they're going to mark it down, how they're going to originally price it. So those two would be the ones where we would expect to see the bigger increase in pipeline and deals.

我想我先前談過我的動能來源，而那是基於商機管道。因此，門市端的領域——也就是我們的銷售點（POS）以及客戶或管理相關領域——我們預期會持續成長。另外，規劃與最佳化解決方案事業單位，基於我剛才提到的原因：人們需要真正開始釐清的不只是要降價哪些商品，還包括要如何降價、以及最初要如何定價。所以這兩個會是我們預期在商機管道與成交案量上會看到較大增幅的領域。

Right. Marty said over all pipelines are 2 to 3 times bigger now than same time last year. So does that mean POS and demand planning, their pipelines are actually, let's say 4 to 6 times bigger than last year?

了解。Marty 說整體商機管道現在是去年同一時間的 2 到 3 倍。那是否表示 POS 和需求規劃的商機管道其實是去年的 4 到 6 倍之類的？

You can't throw those comparisons. They had stronger growth and we'll leave it at that.

你不能用那樣的方式做比較。它們的成長較強，我們就先說到這裡。

Okay.

好的。

That's it. We'd like to end the call now. I'd like to thank everyone for his or her participation in today's fourth quarter earnings conference call. Again, please advise that today's call has been taped and will be available for replay for a period of one week subsequent to the call. The replay can be accessed in the US and Canada by dialing 800-642-1687. Please use the reservation number you used to get into today's call. Also this call has been webcast and will be archived on the investor page of our website at www.Retek.com. This concludes today's call. Thank you and goodbye.

就這樣。我們現在要結束本次電話會議。我要感謝各位參與今天的第四季財報電話會議。再次提醒，今天的電話會議已錄音，並將在會後一週內提供重播。在美國與加拿大可撥打 800-642-1687 收聽重播。請使用你進入今天電話會議時所用的預約號碼。此外，本次電話會議也已進行網路直播，並將存檔於我們網站 www.Retek.com 的投資人頁面。今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝，再見。

This concludes this conference call. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議結束。您現在可以掛線。