Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Opendoor Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Elise Wang, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到 Opendoor 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係副總裁 Elise Wang。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon. Details of our results and additional management commentary are available in our earnings release and shareholder letter, which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.opendoor.com. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website.

謝謝，下午好。我們的業績和其他管理層評論的詳細信息可在我們的收益發布和股東信中找到，這些信息可以在我們網站 investor.opendoor.com 的投資者關係部分找到。請注意，此次電話會議將同時在公司網站的投資者關係部分進行網絡直播。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that could be deemed forward-looking, including, but not limited to, statements regarding Opendoor financial condition, anticipated financial performance, business strategy and plans, market opportunity and expansion and management objectives for future operations.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，以下討論包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。除歷史事實陳述外，所有陳述均可視為前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於有關 Opendoor 財務狀況、預期財務業績、業務戰略和計劃、市場機會以及未來運營的擴張和管理目標的陳述.

These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. Additional information that could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Opendoor's most recent annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, as updated by our periodic report filed after that 10-K.

這些聲明既不是承諾也不是保證，不應過分依賴它們。此類前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此處討論的結果存在重大差異。在 Opendoor 截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格最新年度報告的風險因素部分中，可以找到可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的其他信息，該部分由我們在之後提交的定期報告中更新那個10-K。

Any forward-looking statements made in this conference call, including responses to your questions, are based on management's reasonable current expectations and assumptions as of today, and Opendoor assumes no obligation to update or revise them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. The following discussion contains references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The company believes these non-GAAP financial measures are useful to investors as supplemental operational measurements, to evaluate the company's financial performance. For a reconciliation of each of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP metric, please see our website at investor.opendoor.com.

本次電話會議中作出的任何前瞻性陳述，包括對您問題的回答，均基於管理層截至今日的合理當前預期和假設，Opendoor 不承擔更新或修改這些陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他，除非法律要求。以下討論包含對某些非 GAAP 財務指標的引用。公司認為這些非 GAAP 財務指標作為補充運營指標對投資者有用，可用於評估公司的財務業績。如需將這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標進行核對，請訪問我們的網站 investor.opendoor.com。

I will now turn the call over to Carrie Wheeler, Chief Executive Officer of Opendoor.

我現在將把電話轉給 Opendoor 的首席執行官 Carrie Wheeler。

Good afternoon. Also on the call with me today is Christy Schwartz, our Interim Chief Financial Officer; and Dod Fraser, President of Capital Markets and Enterprise business (sic) [Open Exchange]. I'm looking forward to speaking with you today not only because it's my first earnings call as CEO, but because of our clarity as to the path ahead, which I believe will make Opendoor stronger than before. While navigating a major housing cycle has not been easy, we've never lost sight of our vision. We are building a managed marketplace for residential real estate that will enable consumers to buy, sell and move at the tap of a button. Challenging times like these have the benefit of increasing urgency, demanding focus and putting teamwork front and center that's energizing and part of why I decided to take the CEO role. It's clear to me what our value proposition is for customers and where we need to focus at this moment. I also believe deeply in what we're building towards.

下午好。今天與我通電話的還有我們的臨時首席財務官 Christy Schwartz；和資本市場和企業業務總裁（原文如此）[Open Exchange] 的 Dod Fraser。我期待今天與您交談，不僅因為這是我作為首席執行官的第一次財報電話會議，還因為我們對未來的道路很清楚，我相信這將使 Opendoor 比以前更強大。雖然駕馭一個主要的房地產週期並不容易，但我們從未忘記我們的願景。我們正在為住宅房地產建立一個託管市場，讓消費者只需輕按一下按鈕即可購買、出售和搬家。像這樣充滿挑戰的時代有利於增加緊迫性、要求專注以及將團隊合作放在首位和中心，這是充滿活力的，也是我決定擔任 CEO 角色的部分原因。我很清楚我們對客戶的價值主張是什麼，以及我們目前需要關注的地方。我也深信我們正在建設的目標。

Our value proposition is incredibly strong. About 99% of home sellers still go through the traditional real estate process, a process that remains offline and certain and totally broken. Customers come to us because they create the certainty and convenience of our cash offer that they cannot get anywhere else. Even in this moment of high spreads, we are able to convert over 10% of resellers and earn an NPS of nearly 80. We stand alone in what we're able to offer consumers today. Given our current coverage of almost 30% of all real estate transactions in the U.S. today between our buy-box and the markets we're in, we have a significant runway for future growth.

我們的價值主張非常強大。大約 99% 的房屋銷售商仍在經歷傳統的房地產流程，這個流程仍然是離線的、確定的和完全中斷的。客戶來找我們是因為他們為我們的現金報價創造了確定性和便利性，這是他們在其他任何地方都無法獲得的。即使在這個高價差的時刻，我們也能夠轉換超過 10% 的經銷商並獲得近 80 的 NPS。我們在今天能夠為消費者提供的服務中獨樹一幟。鑑於我們目前覆蓋了美國近 30% 的房地產交易，在我們的購買箱和我們所在的市場之間，我們有一個重要的未來增長跑道。

As for right now, we are highly focused on stabilizing our core business and ultimately returning to positive free cash flow, and we're making solid progress. As of year-end, we sold or were in contract to sell 2/3 of the loss making homes acquired before the housing market reset, also known as our Q2 cohort, and we expect we'll be behind it shortly. The homes we've acquired since the reset are outperforming our expectations and are on track to deliver contribution margins in line with our 4% to 6% annual margin target once they're fully sold.

至於現在，我們高度專注於穩定我們的核心業務並最終恢復正的自由現金流，我們正在取得穩固的進展。截至年底，我們已出售或已簽約出售 2/3 在房地產市場重置前獲得的虧損房屋，也稱為我們的第二季度隊列，我們預計我們很快就會落後。自重置以來我們收購的房屋的表現超出了我們的預期，並且在完全售出後有望實現我們 4% 至 6% 的年利潤率目標。

However, we've lowered our acquisition volumes via higher spreads in our offers, coupled with lower marketing spend. We expect to keep relatively high spreads in the near term given continued uncertainty into how the housing market will perform. That said, we have reduced our spreads from last year's record level based on early indicators of stabilization in the housing market, and we'll continue to do so as we see more consistent positive macro sign. Ultimately, we would expect lower spreads to translate into higher acquisition volumes. In the meantime, we're going to manage our cost structure in light of how expected volumes are pacing this year and next with the goal of returning the business to adjusted net income profitability in 2024, assuming some normalization in the housing market.

然而，我們通過提高報價的價差以及較低的營銷支出來降低我們的收購量。鑑於房地產市場的表現持續存在不確定性，我們預計短期內將保持相對較高的利差。也就是說，根據房地產市場穩定的早期指標，我們已經將利差從去年的創紀錄水平降低，並且隨著我們看到更一致的積極宏觀信號，我們將繼續這樣做。最終，我們預計較低的價差將轉化為更高的收購量。與此同時，我們將根據今年和明年的預期交易量來管理我們的成本結構，目標是在 2024 年將業務恢復到調整後的淨收入盈利能力，假設房地產市場出現一定程度的正常化。

In addition to stabilizing our first-party business, we are aligning on 3 key areas in 2023 to further our progress towards building the managed marketplace for residential real estate. First is to enable more sellers to choose Opendoor. No matter the macro backdrop, sellers value the certainty and simplicity that an Opendoor offer provides. This year we're focused on diversifying our demand funnel so that more home sellers start the journey with Opendoor. The recent launch of our Zillow partnership is one key example set to substantially increase our reach in a scalable and efficient way. We're also expanding our List with Certainty product, which gives sellers the option of listening on the MLS while retaining the certainty of an Opendoor offer that they can take it any time.

除了穩定我們的第一方業務外，我們還在 2023 年的 3 個關鍵領域進行調整，以進一步推進我們在建立住宅房地產託管市場方面的進展。首先是讓更多的賣家選擇Opendoor。無論宏觀背景如何，賣家都重視 Opendoor 提供的確定性和簡單性。今年，我們專注於使我們的需求渠道多樣化，以便更多的房屋銷售商開始使用 Opendoor 的旅程。我們最近推出的 Zillow 合作夥伴關係是一個重要的例子，它將以可擴展和高效的方式大幅增加我們的影響力。我們還擴展了我們的 List with Certainty 產品，它讓賣家可以選擇在 MLS 上收聽，同時保留他們可以隨時接受的 Opendoor 報價的確定性。

Second, is to realize greater operational efficiencies throughout the business by shifting our focus from building for scale and velocity to strengthening our foundational pricing, operations and customer platforms. This includes continued improvement in pricing capabilities to increase offer competitiveness and inventory turns. We will also invest in refactoring our tech platform and infrastructure to enhance productivity and reduce fixed expenses. We are going after at least 100 basis points of margin improvement from all these initiatives by year-end, the full impact of which we expect to realize in 2024. I'll be disappointed if we don't do better than that.

其次，是通過將我們的重點從建立規模和速度轉移到加強我們的基礎定價、運營和客戶平台，從而在整個業務中實現更高的運營效率。這包括持續改進定價能力，以提高報價競爭力和庫存周轉率。我們還將投資重構我們的技術平台和基礎設施，以提高生產力並減少固定開支。到年底，我們將通過所有這些舉措至少提高 100 個基點的利潤率，我們預計這些舉措的全部影響將在 2024 年實現。如果我們不能做得更好，我會感到失望。

And finally, we're building exclusives, our third-party product offering that will be critical to creating a managed marketplace. This will position Opendoor to have a mix of on- and off-balance sheet transaction volumes to enable capital-efficient market share gain for years to come.

最後，我們正在構建獨家產品，我們的第三方產品供應對於創建託管市場至關重要。這將使 Opendoor 擁有資產負債表內和表外交易量的組合，以在未來幾年實現資本高效的市場份額增長。

We plan to scale this product in 3 phases: First, we're focused on perfecting the consumer experience. Second, we will build liquidity and network effects in an individual market. And third, we'll refine our playbook and scale to all markets. Given our highly focused investment approach this year, we expect to be in Phases 1 and 2 for 2023, meaning we'll go deep in selected markets to build liquidity and selection that's required for a great user experience. While our ambitions remain significant long term, we're realigning our near-term goal to 30% of transactions in our marketplace by the end of the year in those markets where we've launched exclusive.

我們計劃分三個階段擴展該產品：首先，我們專注於完善消費者體驗。其次，我們將在單個市場中建立流動性和網絡效應。第三，我們將完善我們的劇本並擴展到所有市場。鑑於我們今年高度集中的投資方法，我們預計將在 2023 年進入第一和第二階段，這意味著我們將深入選定的市場，以建立良好用戶體驗所需的流動性和選擇。雖然我們的長期目標仍然很重要，但我們正在將我們的近期目標重新調整為到今年年底在我們推出獨家服務的市場中占我們市場交易量的 30%。

As we look ahead, we're energized about our future. We set clear goals that will stabilize the business in the short term while strengthening our foundation for the long term. And we believe we have the team, the balance sheet and plans in place to ensure we realize these goals. With every customer we serve, we're more convinced that the current process of buying and selling a home is broken and that Opendoor is in a position like no other to continue to transform the status quo and be the category winner that we've always envisioned.

展望未來，我們對未來充滿活力。我們設定了明確的目標，這些目標將在短期內穩定業務，同時鞏固我們的長期基礎。我們相信我們擁有適當的團隊、資產負債表和計劃來確保我們實現這些目標。對於我們服務的每一位客戶，我們更加確信當前的房屋買賣流程已經被打破，而 Opendoor 處於一個與眾不同的位置，可以繼續改變現狀並成為我們一直以來的類別贏家設想。

With that, I'll pass the call over to Christy to discuss our financial highlights.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給克里斯蒂來討論我們的財務亮點。

Thanks, Carrie. Our fourth quarter results reflect actions taken since Q2 to navigate changes in the housing market. We delivered $2.9 billion of revenue, down 25% versus prior year due to slower resale clearance rates and our decision to reduce our acquisition pace beginning midyear during a time of significant market uncertainty. However, we ended the full year with $15.6 billion in revenue, which was 94% higher than 2021. This growth was driven by our strong first half performance. We purchased 3,427 homes in the fourth quarter, down 64% versus the prior year. For the full year, we acquired 34,962 homes, down 5% versus 2021. Our gross profit was 2.5%, and our contribution margin was negative 7.2% in the fourth quarter, which reflects our resale mix that is weighted to the Q2 cohort of longer-dated lower-margin homes as well as the seasonal softness typically seen in the fourth quarter.

謝謝，嘉莉。我們第四季度的業績反映了自第二季度以來為應對房地產市場變化而採取的行動。我們實現了 29 億美元的收入，比上年下降 25%，原因是轉售清算率放緩，以及我們決定在市場不確定的時期從年中開始降低收購步伐。然而，我們全年的收入為 156 億美元，比 2021 年增長 94%。這一增長是由我們強勁的上半年業績推動的。我們在第四季度購買了 3,427 套房屋，與去年同期相比下降了 64%。全年，我們收購了 34,962 套房屋，與 2021 年相比下降了 5%。我們的毛利潤為 2.5%，第四季度的邊際貢獻為負 7.2%，這反映了我們的轉售組合加權到第二季度更長的人群-過時的低利潤房屋以及第四季度通常出現的季節性疲軟。

Our new book of homes or homes we offered on starting in July of last year is performing well above our expectations and off to a stronger start than acquisition cohorts from prior years. This demonstrates the strength of our value proposition, which despite record spreads still enables us to create attractive cohorts in a negative HPA environment. Notwithstanding the macro challenges we faced beginning in the second quarter of 2022, our full year contribution margin was 3.4% compared to our annual contribution margin target of 4% to 6%. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $351 million and adjusted operating expenses totaled $144 million in the fourth quarter, both consistent with guidance. We ended 2022 with adjusted EBITDA loss of $168 million versus adjusted EBITDA of $58 million in 2021.

我們從去年 7 月開始提供的新房屋或房屋的表現遠高於我們的預期，並且比前幾年的收購隊列有更好的開端。這證明了我們價值主張的力量，儘管創紀錄的價差仍然使我們能夠在負面的 HPA 環境中創造有吸引力的群體。儘管我們從 2022 年第二季度開始面臨宏觀挑戰，但我們的全年貢獻率為 3.4%，而我們的年度貢獻率目標為 4% 至 6%。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 3.51 億美元，調整後的運營費用總計 1.44 億美元，均符合指引。到 2022 年，我們的調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 1.68 億美元，而 2021 年調整後的 EBITDA 為 5800 萬美元。

Turning to our balance sheet. As of the end of the year, we had total capital of $2 billion comprised of $1.3 billion in unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities and $670 million of equity invested in our homes. In addition, we had $12 billion in non-recourse asset-backed facilities, which is significantly in excess of current inventory levels. We expect that we will reduce our committed capacity in 2023. This will lower our required restricted cash levels and associated interest costs.

轉向我們的資產負債表。截至年底，我們的總資本為 20 億美元，其中包括 13 億美元的不受限制的現金、現金等價物和有價證券，以及 6.7 億美元的房屋股權投資。此外，我們還有 120 億美元的無追索權資產支持貸款，這大大超過了當前的庫存水平。我們預計我們將在 2023 年減少承諾的產能。這將降低我們所需的受限現金水平和相關的利息成本。

As we enter 2023, we are highly focused on preserving capital and operating with strong cost discipline, our goal is to return the business to positive adjusted net income upon delivering approximately $10 billion of annualized retail revenue, which we expect to achieve by mid-2024. Assuming some normalization in the housing market, we expect to be able to return to this pace by resuming the market share we had 3 years ago, adjusted for the more than doubling of our market footprint.

進入 2023 年，我們高度重視資本保全和嚴格控製成本運營，我們的目標是在實現約 100 億美元的年度零售收入後，使業務恢復正調整後淨收入，我們預計到 2024 年年中實現這一目標.假設房地產市場出現一定程度的正常化，我們預計能夠通過恢復 3 年前的市場份額（根據我們的市場足跡翻了一番以上進行調整）來恢復到這種速度。

We are continuing to operate with a cautious stance in the near term as we believe the Fed's actions will continue to dictate the outlook for housing. That said, as Carrie mentioned, we have started to see some early signs of housing stabilization, which has, in turn, allowed us to reduce spreads from the record levels we were embedding for most of the back half of last year.

我們在短期內繼續以謹慎的態度操作，因為我們相信美聯儲的行動將繼續決定房地產的前景。也就是說，正如 Carrie 提到的那樣，我們已經開始看到一些住房穩定的早期跡象，這反過來又使我們能夠降低我們在去年下半年大部分時間嵌入的創紀錄水平的利差。

In terms of guidance, we expect our Q1 revenue to be between $2.45 billion to $2.65 billion and adjusted EBITDA loss to be between $350 million and $370 million. Adjusted OpEx, which we define as the delta between contribution margin and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be around $130 million. Consistent with this guidance, we expect our contribution margins will trough in the first quarter before returning to positive levels in the second half of the year as we increase our new book of inventory.

在指導方面，我們預計第一季度收入在 24.5 億美元至 26.5 億美元之間，調整後的 EBITDA 虧損在 3.5 億美元至 3.7 億美元之間。調整後的運營支出，我們將其定義為邊際貢獻與調整後的 EBITDA 之間的差值，預計約為 1.3 億美元。根據這一指引，我們預計我們的邊際收益將在第一季度觸底，然後隨著我們增加新庫存，在下半年恢復到正水平。

2023 is an important year for Opendoor. We will lean into our core strengths and operate with agility and efficiency across the business to ensure that we exit the year stronger and more resilient. We will also invest our capital wisely, focusing on the initiatives that best position us for long-term sustainable growth. Our goal remains to be a profitable market leader and generational company.

2023 年對於 Opendoor 來說是重要的一年。我們將依靠我們的核心優勢，在整個業務中靈活高效地運營，以確保我們以更強大、更有彈性的方式結束這一年。我們還將明智地投資我們的資本，專注於最能使我們實現長期可持續增長的舉措。我們的目標仍然是成為盈利的市場領導者和世代相傳的公司。

I will now open the call for questions.

我現在將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Nick Jones with JMP Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Nick Jones 與 JMP Securities 的對話。

Great. If I could ask two. First, just around kind of negative unit margins. When we think about the full year, it sounds like maybe the first half will still be negative. And then improve in the back half. Is that the right way to think about it? And then I have a follow-up.

偉大的。如果我能問兩個。首先，大約是負單位利潤率。當我們考慮全年時，聽起來上半年可能仍然是負面的。然後在後半段提高。這是正確的思考方式嗎？然後我有一個後續行動。

Nick, I'll return it over to Christy, the new voice on our call today. Just by way of background, Christy's been with Opendoor for 6 years. She's our Chief Accounting Officer and has very capably accepted the interim CFO role. So I'll hand over to you, Christy.

尼克，我會把它還給克里斯蒂，她是我們今天通話的新代言人。僅作為背景，Christy 已經在 Opendoor 工作了 6 年。她是我們的首席會計官，非常乾練地接受了臨時首席財務官的角色。所以我會交給你，克里斯蒂。

Nick, happy to take the question. We expect to return to positive unit margins by the second half of 2023. Right now, our results are reflecting a mix of old book and new book, and we've added some transparency on the margins of each book into our shareholder letter. We've been very focused on selling our old book as expeditiously as possible while also preserving margins, and we expect 85% to be pulled through or in contract by the end of Q1.

尼克，很高興接受這個問題。我們預計到 2023 年下半年將恢復正單位利潤率。目前，我們的結果反映了舊書和新書的混合，我們在股東信中增加了每本書利潤率的透明度。我們一直非常專注於盡快出售我們的舊書，同時保持利潤率，我們預計到第一季度末將有 85% 的訂單完成或簽訂合同。

As soon as we cycle through the Q2 offer cohort, we entered new book inventory, and we feel really good about those margins. The new book of inventory delivered 9.7% contribution margin in Q4 and we expect it to perform in line with our target of 4% to 6% contribution margin once fully flow through. So as such, we expect to return to positive unit margins by the second half as the mix of inventory we're selling shifts back to the new book.

一旦我們通過第二季度的報價隊列進行循環，我們就會進入新書庫存，我們對這些利潤感到非常滿意。新的庫存賬簿在第四季度實現了 9.7% 的邊際貢獻，我們預計一旦全部流出，它的表現將符合我們 4% 至 6% 的邊際貢獻目標。因此，隨著我們銷售的庫存組合轉向新書，我們預計到下半年將恢復正單位利潤率。

Great. And then maybe on just some of the efficiencies, can you maybe unpack where we should look to see those show up as we progress through 2023.

偉大的。然後也許只是一些效率，你能不能打開我們應該看到的地方，以便在我們到 2023 年的過程中看到這些效率。

Yes. I mean I'll take that, Nick. It's Carrie. I mean it's really across the entirety of our business. It will show up a little bit in the CM line, but it will also show up in our variable SG&A in our fixed OpEx structure. It's really a host of initiatives designed to improve margins, reduce cost, increase operating efficiency, what have you. So it will show up across the board.

是的。我的意思是我會接受的，尼克。是嘉莉。我的意思是它確實涉及我們的整個業務。它會在 CM 行中顯示一點點，但它也會在我們固定的 OpEx 結構中顯示在我們的變量 SG&A 中。它實際上是一系列旨在提高利潤率、降低成本、提高運營效率的舉措，你有什麼。所以它會全面出現。

Our next question comes from the line of Jay McCanless with Wedbush.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jay McCanless 與 Wedbush 的對話。

I guess the first one, could you talk again, I missed what you were saying about the 100 bps, I guess, of cost reductions by 24% from structural efficiencies and cost savings. Could you break that out, please?

我想第一個，你能再說一遍嗎，我想我錯過了你所說的 100 個基點，即結構效率和成本節約帶來的 24% 的成本削減。你能把它拆開嗎？

Yes, I'm happy to. It's Carrie again. We been here today in a moment where we have lower volumes in the system, it is a perfect opportunity for us, frankly, to go off to a lot of basis points we have in the system and just be more efficient. We've been building for years for scale and velocity and now we want to build for long-term efficiency and really build more durable savings back into the business. Those dates are going to come -- as I just said to Nick, across a whole host of areas. Some of it will show up in the contribution margin line, i.e., in the unit line. Some of them go up in our variable SG&A, just in the efficiency of our operators, our home ops team, market ops. It will show up also with lower fixed OpEx over time as you reduce some of our direct spend. Those are initiatives that we are going after through the course of 2023. The full impact of them, we don't expect to realize though until 2024. And that's where the 100 basis points will show up next year.

是的，我很樂意。又是嘉莉。我們今天來到這裡的時候，系統中的交易量較低，坦率地說，這對我們來說是一個絕佳的機會，可以利用我們在系統中擁有的很多基點，從而提高效率。多年來，我們一直在為規模和速度而建設，現在我們希望為長期效率而建設，並真正為企業創造更持久的儲蓄。那些日期將會到來——正如我剛剛對尼克所說的那樣，跨越許多領域。其中一些會出現在貢獻邊際線中，即單位線中。其中一些在我們可變的 SG&A 中上升，只是在我們的運營商、我們的家庭運營團隊、市場運營的效率方面。隨著時間的推移，隨著您減少我們的一些直接支出，它也會顯示出較低的固定運營支出。這些是我們將在 2023 年期間採取的舉措。它們的全部影響，我們預計要到 2024 年才能實現。這就是明年 100 個基點將出現的地方。

And then, I guess, the second question, you bought 3,400 homes this quarter. Is something more along that number or, call it, sub-5000, is that a better run rate, I guess, for where the business is now? And especially if you're going to be taking down facility capacity in your credit facilities this year is running at kind of that slower 3,000 to 5,000 pace what we should expect over the next 4 quarters.

然後，我想，第二個問題，你本季度購買了 3,400 套房屋。我想，這個數字還有更多的東西，或者稱之為低於 5000 的東西，對於現在的業務來說，這是更好的運行率嗎？特別是如果你今年要降低信貸設施的設施容量，那麼我們在接下來的 4 個季度應該以 3,000 到 5,000 的速度運行。

Yes. I'll take the first part of the question, just comment a little bit about where we're pacing right now in terms of acquisitions and how it's showing up. And then I'll turn it over to Don to talk through how we're thinking about capital structure and for new things in light of where we're pacing the volume.

是的。我將回答問題的第一部分，只是評論一下我們目前在收購方面的步伐以及它的表現。然後我會把它交給 Don 來談談我們如何考慮資本結構以及根據我們調整交易量的地方來考慮新事物。

The first part of your question is two components to volumes right now. One is what's going on in the market. And the second is what's going on with our spread. And on the market side, sellers are on the sidelines. I mean I think we all know that. Transactions are down 40% year-on-year. If you look across our markets in our buy-box, new listings are the lowest they've ever been since 2004. And that just means there are fewer sellers in the market for us to engage with right now.

您問題的第一部分現在是卷的兩個組成部分。一是市場上正在發生的事情。第二個是我們傳播的情況。在市場方面，賣家處於觀望狀態。我的意思是我想我們都知道這一點。交易量同比下降 40%。如果您在我們的 buy-box 中查看我們的市場，新上市是自 2004 年以來的最低水平。這只是意味著我們現在可以接觸的市場上的賣家越來越少。

On our end, we're continuing to bid high spreads into our offers. And as you know, high spreads for us means lower offers, lower offers led to lower conversion, at least some of the contracts. We have to decrease our spreads a fair bit since late last year with their record levels and I expect we'll continue to do so just given seasonal tailwinds as we come into the new year and also the fact that the housing market is starting to firm up a little bit. But the reality is the housing market remains uncertain, and we're going to continue to operate at a [fairly order] of caution and we'll continue to operate with high spreads for the foreseeable future.

在我們這邊，我們將繼續為我們的報價提供高價差。如您所知，對我們而言，高點差意味著較低的報價，較低的報價導致較低的轉換率，至少是某些合約。自去年年底以來，我們的利差達到了創紀錄的水平，因此我們必須將利差適當降低一些，我預計我們將繼續這樣做，因為我們進入新的一年時會出現季節性順風，而且房地產市場開始走強一點點。但現實是房地產市場仍然不確定，我們將繼續以[相當]謹慎的方式運作，在可預見的未來，我們將繼續以高息差運作。

So that's on volumes. We don't break out where we're pacing specifically on volumes. I can tell you (inaudible) tends to be a jumping off point for a lot of home sellers to get back in the market. And as we've been decreasing spreads since last year, there's a lag in our business between offer to contract and we do expect to see a pickup in volume as we move through the second quarter. Seasonality goes on throughout the entire year. We're seeing tailwinds right now. Seasonality shows up in the form of a slower back half we increased spreads in the back half. But that's not how you think about volumes for the pace of the year. Dod, do you want to talk a little bit about how we're thinking about sizing facilities?

所以這是在數量上。我們不會打破我們具體在數量上的節奏。我可以告訴你（聽不清）往往是許多房屋賣家重返市場的起點。由於我們自去年以來一直在降低價差，因此我們的業務在報價和合同之間存在滯後，我們確實希望在第二季度時看到交易量有所回升。季節性貫穿全年。我們現在看到順風。季節性以較慢的後半部分形式出現，我們增加了後半部分的點差。但這不是你如何考慮今年的速度。 Dod，你想談談我們是如何考慮規模化設施的嗎？

Yes, happy to. I think -- I mean, just to highlight this, inventory balances at the end of the year were $4.5 billion, and we have $12 billion in capacity. So that is more than adequate for the financing and sort of forward view of where we're headed. So -- and I think the other piece that's important to highlight is lenders like to be utilized. And so taking down that capacity is something we've done in modulating that capacity for the 7 years that I've been here. So I think it's something we're very comfortable with, reducing and feel like we will still have ample capacity to account for any upside to inventory.

是的，很高興。我想——我的意思是，為了強調這一點，年底的庫存餘額為 45 億美元，我們有 120 億美元的產能。因此，這對於融資和對我們前進方向的前瞻性看法來說綽綽有餘。所以 - 我認為另一件需要強調的重要事情是貸款人喜歡被利用。因此，在我來這裡的 7 年裡，我們在調整這種能力時所做的就是降低這種能力。所以我認為這是我們非常滿意的事情，減少並感覺我們仍然有足夠的能力來解決庫存的任何上行問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Helfstein 和 Oppenheimer 的對話。

This is Chad on for Jason. So you talked about 30% of your 23 transactions going through exclusives in markets where the marketplace is launched. Two questions on that. First, any sense what percent of your total markets you'll be launched in kind of by the end of the year? And then do you believe that, that's driving the return to positive unit economics in the back half? Or is that just kind of the improvement in the new home cohorts?

這是傑森的乍得。所以你談到你的 23 筆交易中有 30% 是在市場推出的市場上通過獨家交易進行的。有兩個問題。首先，到今年年底，您將在總市場中推出多少百分比？然後你是否相信，這會推動後半段單位經濟效益的回歸？或者這只是新家庭群體的一種改善？

Chad, our focus right now for 3P or for Marketplace is really to refine and test in the local market. We're excited about the signal we're seeing so far. And we're seeing sellers being very excited to opt into the program. We have about 3% share of the listings in the market that we're trialing right now. So off to an encouraging start. But we really want to focus on, first, perfecting the customer experience and then step #2 is to build density and liquidity so that we can own that market, and we'll do that before we want to kind of spread out further. I don't know the number of markets will be at by the end of the year. It's -- we have given an actual target. It will be a relatively, I think, small number right now, but we are hoping the pace to acquire a number by the end of the year and into 2024. It's unrelated to what Christy said as to how contribution margins are going to play out for the rest of the year. That entirely has to do with the mix between our old book as we sell that off and that our new book becomes the vast majority to all of our margins in the second half.

乍得，我們現在對 3P 或 Marketplace 的關注點實際上是在本地市場進行改進和測試。我們對目前看到的信號感到興奮。我們看到賣家對選擇加入該計劃感到非常興奮。在我們目前正在試用的市場上，我們擁有大約 3% 的份額。一個令人鼓舞的開始。但我們真的想專注於，首先，完善客戶體驗，然後第二步是建立密度和流動性，這樣我們就可以擁有這個市場，我們會在我們想要進一步擴展之前做到這一點。我不知道到年底會有多少市場。這是 - 我們已經給出了一個實際目標。我認為，目前這將是一個相對較小的數字，但我們希望在今年年底和 2024 年之前獲得一個數字。這與克里斯蒂所說的貢獻利潤率將如何發揮作用無關在今年剩下的時間裡。這完全與我們出售舊書和我們的新書在下半年成為我們所有利潤的絕大部分之間的混合有關。

Our next question comes from the line of Ygal Arounian with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ygal Arounian。

I want to just go back to the macro for a second. And you're talking about stabilization and just kind of in the last couple of weeks, we start to see rates go back up a little bit and start to see that impact mortgage demand again. So just wanted to get a sense of what you're building into your spreads and what you're thinking on the macro as we move forward and you're bringing your spreads down a little bit. Just want to understand what your expectations are for the house market as we work our way through the rest of the year?

我想先回到宏觀上。你說的是穩定，就在過去幾週，我們開始看到利率回升一點，並開始再次看到這對抵押貸款需求的影響。因此，只是想了解一下您在利差中構建的內容以及您在我們前進時對宏觀的看法，並且您正在將利差降低一點。只是想了解您對今年餘下時間的房屋市場的期望是什麼？

Yes. Happy to answer. So look, if you look at the -- where the market is right now. We're continuing to see very low supply in the market, really multi-decade lows continuing. New listings are the lowest since 2004. So that's a good setup for more stable pricing in 2023. I think it's also important to keep in mind that how sort of the risk that we're taking from a housing price perspective, we typically own homes for, call it, 4 months. So that's the duration of exposure we're taking. And if you look at home price appreciation, we have a fun chart in the back of our shareholder letter, that shows month-over-month home price appreciation.

是的。樂於回答。所以，如果你看一下——市場現在的位置。我們繼續看到市場供應量非常低，實際上是幾十年的低點。新掛牌量是 2004 年以來的最低水平。因此，這是 2023 年價格更穩定的良好設置。我認為，同樣重要的是要記住，從房價的角度來看，我們承擔的風險有多大，我們通常擁有房屋因為，稱之為 4 個月。這就是我們正在接受的曝光時間。如果你看房價升值，我們在股東信函的背面有一張有趣的圖表，顯示了房價逐月升值。

If you look at the first half of the year, you almost all was going back into the 80s, you see very strong home price appreciation and then that moderates in the back half of the year. So this is the point of the year where given the strong leading indicators we've seen in January, we've been able to reduce those spreads. We continue, though, to be very cautious in the back half of the year, to your point around interest rate volatility and how that could flow through to the impact on consumer demand. So our base case is that spread will actually need to increase in the back half of the year, especially if the Fed has to raise rates higher to combat inflation higher than people are expecting.

如果你看看今年上半年，幾乎所有人都回到了 80 年代，你會看到房價上漲非常強勁，然後在下半年放緩。因此，鑑於我們在 1 月份看到的強勁領先指標，我們已經能夠降低這些價差，這是今年的關鍵時刻。不過，我們在今年下半年繼續非常謹慎，就你關於利率波動的觀點以及它如何影響消費者需求而言。因此，我們的基本情況是，利差實際上需要在今年下半年增加，尤其是如果美聯儲不得不加息以應對高於人們預期的通脹。

Got it. And in terms of your market expansion, buy-box and all those things, have you -- understanding we're on risk off mode and not purchasing the level of homes were purchasing last year. Can you pull back in any of the markets, is your overall strategy changed? I'm guessing it hasn't really changed, but is it -- does the pace of it change? Have you pulled back anywhere? Have you pulled back on your buy-box at all? Or is that maybe just not holds in the near term until we get back to a more normalized market.

知道了。就你的市場擴張、購買框和所有這些事情而言，你是否理解我們處於風險規避模式，而不是購買去年購買的房屋水平。你能在任何一個市場撤退嗎，你的整體策略是否改變了？我猜它並沒有真正改變，但它——它的速度改變了嗎？你有沒有退縮？你有沒有拉回你的購買框？或者，在我們回到一個更加正常化的市場之前，這種情況可能不會在短期內成立。

I think the way that we've tackled this today and in the past is through spread dispersion. So we will account for changes or higher risk by market or even by price point by charging a different spread. And so you can see that play out both in terms of specific markets as well as within pockets within markets sort of ZIP code or otherwise. And so that's really the lever by which we adjust pricing to account for that risk. So it's not coming back on buybacks to be specific for adjusting the spread starting customers based on the riskiness of (inaudible).

我認為我們今天和過去解決這個問題的方法是通過擴散。因此，我們將通過收取不同的價差來解釋市場甚至價格點的變化或更高的風險。因此，您可以看到這既在特定市場方面發揮作用，也在市場內的口袋內（郵政編碼或其他方面）發揮作用。因此，這確實是我們調整定價以應對該風險的槓桿。因此，回購不會根據（聽不清）的風險專門調整起始客戶的價差。

Our next question comes from the line of Justin Patterson with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Justin Patterson。

Great. Carrie, I wanted to go back to exclusive to start with. Can you talk about the steps to build the density in those markets and just really get the supply you need to succeed with that and perhaps just frame helps to the core business? And then just a secondary question on the Zillow relationship. I know it's very, very early here, but could you just talk about how we think about the pace of that relationship expanding, moving into new markets, how do you think about the conversion quality from that funnel versus some of the other channels you lean on?

偉大的。嘉莉，我想回到獨家開始。您能否談談在這些市場建立密度的步驟，並真正獲得成功所需的供應，也許只是框架有助於核心業務？然後只是關於 Zillow 關係的次要問題。我知道現在還很早，但您能否談談我們如何看待這種關係的擴張速度、進入新市場，您如何看待該漏斗與您所依賴的其他一些渠道的轉化質量在？

Justin, do you want to bring the first part of your first question, you broke up there a little bit for me. I had a hard time hearing that.

賈斯汀，你想帶上你第一個問題的第一部分嗎，你在那里為我分手了一點。我很難聽到那個。

Sorry about that. The first question was just around Phase 2 with the exclusives product. Can you talk about just the steps needed to build density and market for that?

對於那個很抱歉。第一個問題是關於獨家產品的第 2 階段。您能談談為此建立密度和市場所需的步驟嗎？

It's really about aggregating supply and then from there, aggregating buyer demand, which we haven't had started on through our 1P business, but it's really about bringing more buyers into the system over time.

這實際上是關於聚合供應，然後從那裡聚合買家需求，我們還沒有通過我們的 1P 業務開始，但它實際上是關於隨著時間的推移將更多買家帶入系統。

On the Zillow side, as you said, it's early. We had a Valentine's Day launch. So far, so good. We're optimistic and enthusiastic about the prospects for that partnership where we'll expect to launch it in more markets over the course of the year. But for us, we think it's going to be a very interesting and accretive marketing channel for us and just allow us to put our brand and our offer in front of a lot more home sellers.

在 Zillow 方面，正如您所說，現在還為時過早。我們有一個情人節發布。到目前為止，一切都很好。我們對這種夥伴關係的前景感到樂觀和熱情，我們希望在這一年中將其推向更多市場。但對我們來說，我們認為這對我們來說將是一個非常有趣和增值的營銷渠道，並且讓我們能夠將我們的品牌和我們的報價展示在更多的房屋銷售商面前。

Our next question comes from the line of Curtis Nagle with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Curtis Nagle。

Great. Carrie, I just wanted to focus a sec on spreads. So the new cohorts, you took up spreads, led to some nice contribution margins so far, albeit a lower volumes. I'm not sure if I heard this incorrectly, but it sounds like you might be pulling back spreads a little bit as we go further into the year. And if that's the case, how does that impact potential contribution margins if that was the case?

偉大的。嘉莉，我只想花點時間關注點差。因此，新的隊列，你接受了利差，到目前為止帶來了一些不錯的貢獻利潤率，儘管數量較低。我不確定我是否聽錯了，但隨著我們進入今年，聽起來你可能會稍微縮減利差。如果是這樣的話，如果是這樣的話，這將如何影響潛在的貢獻利潤率？

I think the comment we made is, one, we have been pulling -- we even reduced these spreads since late last year when they were at record levels. Peak uncertainty, record level spreads, and we were reducing them as we come into the new year, 2 reasons, seasonal tailwind; and two, we have seen signs the housing market is stabilizing, the comment that Dod made earlier about where we are in terms of HPA prospects, the underpinning of houses with supply and (inaudible) what have you. We expect to continue to do so for a while. That being said, seasonal tailwinds turn into seasonal headwinds in the second half of the year, every year.

我認為我們發表的評論是，第一，我們一直在拉動——自去年年底創紀錄水平以來，我們甚至降低了這些利差。峰值不確定性，創紀錄的價差，我們在進入新的一年時正在減少它們，2 個原因，季節性順風；第二，我們已經看到房地產市場正在穩定的跡象，國防部早些時候就我們在 HPA 前景方面所做的評論，房屋供應的支撐以及（聽不清）你有什麼。我們希望在一段時間內繼續這樣做。話雖如此，每年下半年，季節性順風都會變成季節性逆風。

So there is some chance that we will look to like raise spreads again in the back half of the year. We'll see, I mean this is -- I think the beauty of our business is that it's dynamic, and we're able to raise a response to what we're seeing in the market, and we'll continue to do so as we get more signal.

因此，我們有可能在今年下半年再次提高利差。我們會看到，我的意思是——我認為我們業務的美妙之處在於它是動態的，我們能夠對我們在市場上看到的情況做出回應，我們將繼續這樣做隨著我們獲得更多信號。

Okay. Got it. And then just a follow-up on the 1Q guidance. For the $370 million to $390 million negative EBITDA -- how should we think about the GAAP gross margins that would be incorporated into that?

好的。知道了。然後只是對 1Q 指南的跟進。對於 3.7 億美元至 3.9 億美元的負 EBITDA——我們應該如何考慮將納入其中的 GAAP 毛利率？

Curtis, I'll take that. We don't generally provide guidance on GAAP gross margin. You can kind of back into contribution margin using adjusted EBITDA and adjusted OpEx and you can look at our -- you can look at the table for the new book and old book of inventory in our shareholder letter to get an idea of the margins, the gross margins that we're seeing on those 2 books. There's also a breakout of inventory by new book and old book in the shareholder letter that would be helpful.

柯蒂斯，我會接受的。我們通常不提供有關 GAAP 毛利率的指導。您可以使用調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的運營支出回到邊際收益，您可以查看我們的 - 您可以查看我們股東信中的新賬簿和舊賬簿表格，以了解利潤率，我們在這兩本書上看到的毛利率。股東信中還有新書和舊書的庫存突破，這將有所幫助。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tomasello with KBW.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Ryan Tomasello。

Can you maybe provide a bit more detail for how you plan to get to adjusted net income profitability at $10 billion of revenue. What assumptions you're baking in there for contribution margins, mix of 1P, 3P, OpEx, et cetera. I guess just running some back of the envelope math, assuming 5% contribution margins, implies that you're assuming significant efficiencies on either the financing or OpEx side or maybe baking in higher unit economics altogether. So just trying to understand the moving pieces there.

你能否提供更多細節，說明你計劃如何在 100 億美元的收入下獲得調整後的淨利潤。您在其中針對貢獻邊際、1P、3P、OpEx 等的組合做出了哪些假設。我想只是運行一些信封數學，假設 5% 的貢獻利潤率，意味著你假設在融資或運營支出方面有顯著的效率，或者可能完全在更高的單位經濟學中烘烤。所以只是想了解那裡的活動部分。

Yes, I'm happy to take that one, Ryan. Number one, it bears mentioning, we're highly focused on returning our business to adjust net income profitability as quickly as possible. For us, the tipping point is $10 billion of annualized revenue to get there. And we believe we should get back there by, say, the middle of 2024, assuming #1 assumption, a more normalized home environment. If you go back at 2019 and look at where we were, which is a more good analog for a normal housing market and you think about the share we have back then, and you adjusted for just where we are today, which is 4x bigger in terms of the combination of additional buy-box expansion in new markets. With like-for-like share, frankly, even a little less than like-for-like share gets you back to $10 billion in 2024. So that's on the top line.

是的，我很樂意接受那個，瑞安。第一，值得一提的是，我們高度關注恢復我們的業務以盡快調整淨收入盈利能力。對我們來說，轉折點是達到 100 億美元的年化收入。我們相信我們應該在 2024 年中期回到那裡，假設#1 假設，一個更正常的家庭環境。如果你回到 2019 年，看看我們當時的情況，這對正常的房地產市場來說是一個更好的類比，你想想我們當時的份額，然後你就我們今天的情況進行了調整，這是現在的 4 倍新市場中額外的購買框擴展的組合條款。坦率地說，如果按同類份額計算，即使比同類份額少一點，你也會在 2024 年回到 100 億美元。所以這是最重要的。

I don't think you have to squint too hard to get to that number. And then, by the way, add on much greater brand awareness than we had in 2019, much deeper partnership channel, what have you. And then on the margin side, I mean, we still think about the 1P business contributing 4% to 6%. But as I said in my earlier comments, we're going after at least 100 basis points of margin throughout the entire system and we'd expect to be back to normalized turns, call that 3 to 3.5 turns a year. I think you put all that together and you get to ANI positive. It does not have large assumptions for a mix of capital-light or asset-light business, i.e., 3P or certainty, for example. And again, our buyers is to be conservative in how we kind of put out these markers. And so we haven't embedded a lot of new product lines into that number. So we feel good about the $10 billion marker.

我不認為你必須瞇著眼睛才能得到那個數字。然後，順便說一句，增加比我們在 2019 年更高的品牌知名度，更深入的合作夥伴渠道，你有什麼。然後在利潤方面，我的意思是，我們仍然認為 1P 業務貢獻了 4% 到 6%。但正如我在之前的評論中所說，我們將在整個系統中追求至少 100 個基點的保證金，我們預計會回到正常化的轉折點，即每年 3 到 3.5 個轉折點。我認為你把所有這些放在一起，你就會得到 ANI 積極的結果。它沒有對輕資本或輕資產業務的組合進行大量假設，例如 3P 或確定性。再一次，我們的買家對我們如何放置這些標記要保守。所以我們沒有在這個數字中嵌入很多新產品線。因此，我們對 100 億美元的大關感覺良好。

Okay. Great. And then a quick follow-up would be just trying to understand how you're thinking about the capital requirements for the business once you move past the 2Q cohort here and the business mix transitions to a balance of both the 1P and 3P transactions. Is there a minimum level of cash you are targeting that provides you with a large enough balance sheet to support what will still be a capital-intensive 1P business while also providing you with enough flexibility to invest in scaling the 3P business, which I assume you would look to consider some marketing spend there to drive adoption?

好的。偉大的。然後快速跟進只是試圖了解一旦你在這裡超過 2Q 隊列並且業務組合過渡到 1P 和 3P 交易的平衡，你是如何考慮業務的資本需求的。您是否設定了最低現金水平，為您提供足夠大的資產負債表以支持仍將是資本密集型 1P 業務，同時為您提供足夠的靈活性來投資擴展 3P 業務，我假設您會考慮在那裡進行一些營銷支出以推動採用嗎？

Yes. Happy to answer that. So look, I think we're very comfortable executing our business plan with the $2 billion in capital that we have today, $1.3 billion in unrestricted cash. We don't guide beyond the first quarter. But to your point, we do have minimum cash requirements in our financing facilities, but those are substantially below where our current cash balance is. So I think the plan that we've articulated, the plan that we're going after, we are very comfortable with $2 billion in capital is more than enough to finance the plans we're marketing against.

是的。很高興回答這個問題。所以看，我認為我們非常樂意用我們今天擁有的 20 億美元資本和 13 億美元不受限制的現金來執行我們的業務計劃。我們不會在第一季度之後提供指導。但就你而言，我們的融資設施確實有最低現金要求，但這些要求大大低於我們目前的現金餘額。所以我認為我們已經闡明的計劃，我們正在追求的計劃，我們對 20 億美元的資本非常滿意，足以為我們正在營銷的計劃提供資金。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan McKeveny with Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Ryan McKeveny。

Just to come back to exclusives. I have a 3-part question, so I'll throw it out all at once. So you mentioned in the letter that you began to offer exclusives as an option to sellers in 4Q. So firstly, just any thoughts you can share on the initial reception from home sellers. Second part of the question, more generally, can you just talk about the value proposition of -- to home sellers of exclusives? I think we all understand the value prop around the 1P model with convenience and certainty of the cash offer, et cetera. But maybe you can talk about how you frame that value prop of ultimately, why would a seller go the 3P option compared to listing traditionally? And then the last piece, and I can come back to the -- sorry, it's a long question. Lastly, I think last quarter, you mentioned a 5% service fee for third-party transactions. Is that still the expectation? And is that 5% service fee? Is that specific to what a home seller would pay the list? Or is that possibly some combination of kind of a fee charge to the seller, but also fee charged to the home buyer?

只是為了回到獨家。我有一個由 3 部分組成的問題，所以我會一次性將其全部拋出。所以你在信中提到你在第四季度開始向賣家提供獨家銷售作為一種選擇。因此，首先，您可以分享關於賣家初次接待的任何想法。問題的第二部分，更籠統地說，你能談談——對獨家銷售商的價值主張嗎？我想我們都理解 1P 模型的價值支撐，以及現金報價的便利性和確定性等。但也許你可以談談你如何構建最終的價值支柱，與傳統上市相比，為什麼賣家會選擇 3P 選項？然後是最後一部分，我可以回到——抱歉，這是一個很長的問題。最後，我想上個季度，你提到了第三方交易的 5% 服務費。這還是期待嗎？那是5%的服務費嗎？這是否特定於房屋賣家將支付的清單？或者這可能是向賣方收取費用的某種組合，但也向購房者收取費用？

I'll do my best to remember all of that. Let me start the top. So we started with exclusive listings. That was taking our Opendoor owned inventory and windowing it in effect to buyers if they should come and buy the home on an as is where exceptional basis, and we have had really good success with that. We've had sales are going to be 15% to 20% in the first 2 weeks on those exclusive listing homes. I was using our inventory, and we continue to need to pursue that model.

我會盡力記住這一切。讓我開始頂部。所以我們從獨家列表開始。那就是利用我們的 Opendoor 擁有的庫存並將其有效地展示給買家，如果他們應該以特殊的方式來購買房屋，我們在這方面取得了非常好的成功。在前兩週內，這些獨家上市房屋的銷售額將達到 15% 至 20%。我正在使用我們的庫存，我們需要繼續追求這種模式。

Step 2, I think it's -- the second part of your question was around what the value prop to sellers. The value prop to them is, if they often are putting in their home in the marketplace, they're still looking at a scenario where they are not enduring more than one showing, then they have a limited window of time by which we are going to surface multiple offers for them, one from the institutional network that we have in our relationships, which we've had for years now, we can help monetize those and bring those offers to the floor that they can't otherwise get and we can bring other offers from other buyers in our network to them. And then they have the option to choose to take that price or not. They obviously also have the backup of our certain all cash offer, if that's something they want to be themselves. So it's a lot less (inaudible), less time. There's still certainty in the process again vastly superior to the traditional selling process today. That's the value prop to them.

第 2 步，我認為是——你問題的第二部分是圍繞對賣家的價值支撐。對他們來說，價值支撐是，如果他們經常將自己的家放在市場上，他們仍然在尋找一個他們不會忍受不止一次展示的場景，那麼他們有一個有限的時間窗口，我們可以為他們提供多個優惠，其中一個來自我們在關係中擁有的機構網絡，我們已經擁有多年，我們可以幫助將這些優惠貨幣化並將這些優惠帶到他們無法獲得的地板上，我們可以將我們網絡中其他買家的其他優惠帶給他們。然後他們可以選擇是否接受該價格。他們顯然也有我們某些全現金報價的支持，如果那是他們自己想要的。所以它更少（聽不清），更少的時間。這個過程仍然確定性再次大大優於今天的傳統銷售過程。這就是他們的價值支柱。

As for the economics, I suspect we'll continue to tinker with them an experiment over time. Today, we charge a 5% fee to the seller, and we're sharing some of that with the buyer. How that shakes out over time? I don't know. So I think I'm a little low to commit to this -- specific of the unit economics right now. That, for example, doesn't include AV services of cash. There's no tie that's growing there, all those things to come. But that is where we're at today.

至於經濟學，我懷疑我們會隨著時間的推移繼續對它們進行實驗。今天，我們向賣家收取 5% 的費用，並與買家分享其中的一部分。隨著時間的推移，這是如何發生變化的？我不知道。因此，我認為我對這一點的承諾有點低——具體到現在的單位經濟學。例如，這不包括現金 AV 服務。那裡沒有增長的領帶，所有這些事情都會發生。但這就是我們今天所處的位置。

That's great. One additional question. The comment about list with certainty. I don't believe I've heard you talk about that before. So maybe you can just expand on what that product is and how that kind of fits into the broader equation?

那太棒了。一個額外的問題。關於肯定列表的評論。我不相信我以前聽過你談論過那個。所以也許你可以擴展一下那個產品是什麼以及它如何適應更廣泛的方程式？

Yes. I mean in this high spread environment, the good news is that we can still convert 10% of sellers because they're indexing uncertainty convenience, but there's 90% that we're not addressing in the current high spread environment. We want to make sure that we still give them an option to move. And so we are -- we'll be expanding our list with certainty products. They can list their home on the market with us, to maximize market price, still retain the certainty of our own cash offer that they can take at any time. And so far, we're seeing about 20%, 25% of customers, choose with a certainty when presented with that option. So we're optimistic that we will be driving more asset-light volumes through that product over time in this environment.

是的。我的意思是，在這種高價差環境中，好消息是我們仍然可以轉換 10% 的賣家，因為他們正在索引不確定性便利，但在當前的高價差環境中，我們沒有解決 90% 的問題。我們想確保我們仍然給他們一個搬家的選擇。所以我們 - 我們將使用確定性產品來擴展我們的列表。他們可以和我們一起在市場上列出他們的房子，以最大化市場價格，仍然保留他們可以隨時接受的我們自己的現金報價的確定性。到目前為止，我們看到大約 20%、25% 的客戶在看到該選項時肯定會選擇。因此，我們樂觀地認為，隨著時間的推移，在這種環境下，我們將通過該產品推動更多的輕資產交易量。

Our last question comes from the line of Jay McCanless with Wedbush.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Jay McCanless 與 Wedbush 的對話。

So just Carrie, I wanted to push a little bit more on. If the mortgage market doesn't go down, the mortgage rate starts to go down, mortgage rates actually go up from here, and we see sellers be even more reluctant to get out of the house they're in now. I guess what's plan B? And what does the business look like in that scenario? Do you walk away from higher-priced markets, so you're not having to carry as much on the credit facilities you go heavier, I don't know, into whether it's payments to get listings, things like that. Just maybe walk us through an environment where rates go up instead of down.

所以只有嘉莉，我想再努力一點。如果抵押貸款市場不走低，抵押貸款利率開始下降，抵押貸款利率實際上會從這裡上升，我們看到賣家更不願意離開他們現在所在的房子。我想什麼是計劃B？在這種情況下，業務是什麼樣子的？你是否離開了價格較高的市場，這樣你就不必承擔那麼多的信貸額度，我不知道，是否需要支付上市費用，諸如此類。也許只是讓我們經歷一個利率上升而不是下降的環境。

Yes. I mean I'd say at the highest level, I think we show and hopefully what we've provided in the shareholder letter, we can still create attractive economics, attractive cohorts even in this environment of high rate, high mortgage rates, rate volatility, and we'd expect to continue to do so. Mortgage rates have been pretty volatile in the last couple of weeks. We're reflecting that in how we adjust for spreads. So we'll continue to do that through the course of the year. If volumes are -- continue to be suppressed for the industry and they continue to be down and that persists for a long period of time. I think we know this imperative that we manage our cost structure, our capital -- good news is we have a lot of it, but [very dear]. And so we compare that we mitigate losses and preserve book value, and we're going to manage the business with that in mind.

是的。我的意思是，我想在最高級別上說，我認為我們展示並希望我們在股東信中提供的內容，即使在這種高利率、高抵押貸款利率、利率波動的環境下，我們仍然可以創造有吸引力的經濟、有吸引力的群體，我們希望繼續這樣做。過去幾週抵押貸款利率波動很大。我們在調整價差的方式中反映了這一點。因此，我們將在這一年中繼續這樣做。如果銷量繼續受到行業的抑制，並且它們繼續下降並且持續很長一段時間。我認為我們知道管理我們的成本結構和資本的必要性——好消息是我們有很多，但是 [very dear]。因此，我們比較了我們減少損失和保留賬面價值的情況，我們將考慮到這一點來管理業務。

So we're not managing it to the absolute point of the trough today. But if I look ahead of 2024, if that's sort of the question in your comments and learn for a -- maybe longer trough period in the housing cycle, we'll take a harder look at our cost structure in light of that. We'll have to.

所以我們今天沒有把它管理到谷底的絕對點。但如果我展望 2024 年，如果這是你評論中的問題，並了解——可能是更長的房地產週期低谷期，我們將有鑑於此更仔細地審視我們的成本結構。我們必須這樣做。

Thank you. I would now like to hand the conference back over to Carrie Wheeler for closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在想將會議交還給 Carrie Wheeler 作閉幕詞。

I just want to thank everyone for joining and participating today. As hopefully you heard from us, we feel confident with the decisions we've made to date to navigate what has been a challenging housing environment are enabling us to achieve both our customer goals and our long-term financial objectives. So thank you, and we look forward to talking to you again soon.

我只想感謝大家今天的加入和參與。正如您從我們這裡聽到的那樣，我們對迄今為止為應對充滿挑戰的住房環境所做的決定充滿信心，這使我們能夠實現我們的客戶目標和長期財務目標。所以謝謝你，我們期待很快再次與你交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。