Olin Corp (OLN) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Olin Corporation's first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加奧林公司（Olin Corporation）2026 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，本活動將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, Olin's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Steve.

現在我想把會議交給奧林投資人關係總監 Steve Keenan。Steve，請開始。

Thank you, Nick. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to review Olin's first quarter 2026 results. Please keep in mind that today's discussion, together with the associated slides, as well as the question-and-answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance. Please note these are forward-looking statements and that Olin's actual results could differ materially from those projected.

謝謝你，Nick。各位早安。感謝各位今天加入我們，一同回顧奧林 2026 年第一季的業績表現。請記得，今天的討論（包含相關投影片）以及隨後的問答環節，將包含對未來績效之估計或預期的陳述。請注意，這些屬於前瞻性陳述，奧林的實際結果可能與所預測者有重大差異。

Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in yesterday's first quarter earnings press release. A copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the Investors section under Past Events. Our earnings press release and related financial data and information are available under Press Releases.

可能導致實際結果與我們預測不同的部分因素，已在我們最新的 Form 10-K 之「風險因素」章節，以及昨日發布的第一季財報新聞稿中（不限於此）加以說明。今日逐字稿與投影片將公布於我們網站「投資人」專區的「過往活動」項下。我們的財報新聞稿及相關財務數據與資訊則可於「新聞稿」項下取得。

With me this morning are Ken Lane, Olin's President and CEO; and Todd Slater, Olin's CFO. We'll start with some prepared remarks, then we'll look forward to taking your questions. I'll now turn the call over to Olin's President and CEO, Ken Lane.

今天早上與我一同出席的有奧林總裁暨執行長 Ken Lane，以及奧林財務長 Todd Slater。我們將先進行準備好的發言，接著期待回答各位的提問。現在我把電話交給奧林總裁暨執行長 Ken Lane。

Thanks, Steve. Thank you to everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your time and your continued interest in Olin.

謝謝你，Steve。也感謝各位今天加入我們。感謝各位撥冗，以及持續關注奧林。

Let's start on slide 3 for a view of our first quarter highlights. Amid a very dynamic operating environment in the first quarter, the Olin team executed with discipline, maintaining focus on running our assets safely and reliably, removing structural costs through our Beyond250 program and preserving liquidity, all while staying firmly committed to our value-first commercial approach.

我們先看投影片第 3 頁，了解第一季重點。在第一季極為動態的營運環境下，奧林團隊以紀律執行，持續專注於安全且可靠地運轉資產、透過 Beyond250 計畫移除結構性成本並維持流動性，同時堅定落實我們「價值優先」的商業策略。

That discipline translated into positive results in the first quarter and sets the stage for stronger earnings in the coming months. During the first quarter, our Epoxy business returned to profitability, and we saw early signs of demand growth for Winchester commercial ammunition.

這份紀律在第一季轉化為正向成果，並為未來幾個月更強勁的獲利奠定基礎。第一季期間，我們的環氧樹脂（Epoxy）業務恢復獲利，同時也看到 Winchester 商用彈藥需求成長的早期跡象。

The Iran conflict introduced significant disruption across global petrochemical supply chains. Sharply higher crude oil prices and freight rates disproportionately impacted non-US producers, further reinforcing the structural cost advantage of US Gulf Coast assets such as Olin's. While these dynamics did not materially benefit our first quarter results due to normal pricing lags, they meaningfully improved the outlook for the second quarter.

伊朗衝突對全球石化供應鏈造成顯著擾動。原油價格與運費大幅上升，對非美國生產商的衝擊相對更大，進一步凸顯美國墨西哥灣沿岸資產（如奧林資產）的結構性成本優勢。由於正常的價格傳導時滯，這些動態並未對我們第一季業績帶來實質助益，但確實大幅改善了第二季的展望。

Looking ahead, the near-term backdrop has shifted more in favor of US producers than where we were at the beginning of the year. While the duration of Middle East disruptions remains uncertain, we believe the full impact is still unfolding as global supply chains continue to tighten. We're seeing significant inventory drawdowns and deferred maintenance temporarily helping bridge supply gaps. This creates a more constructive environment as the year progresses.

展望未來，短期環境相較年初已更有利於美國生產商。雖然中東擾動的持續時間仍不確定，但我們認為其全面影響仍在發酵，因全球供應鏈持續收緊。我們看到庫存明顯去化，以及遞延維修暫時協助彌補供應缺口。隨著年度推進，這將形成更具建設性的環境。

Olin is well positioned to navigate this dynamic environment, supported by our advantaged asset base, improving cost structure, and strong cash generation. As regional customers increasingly prioritize security of supply, we have the flexibility to increase operating rates and capture value while maintaining our value-first commercial approach.

在具優勢的資產基礎、持續改善的成本結構與強勁的現金創造能力支撐下，奧林已做好準備以因應此一動態環境。隨著區域客戶愈發重視供應安全，我們具備彈性可提高開工率並掌握價值，同時維持我們「價值優先」的商業策略。

Now turn to slide 4 for a deeper review of Chlor Alkali Products & Vinyls. First-quarter results reflected lower operating costs driven by Beyond250 and lower-than-expected maintenance turnaround costs. Merchant chlorine demand was seasonally soft but improved from the fourth quarter with year-end customer destocking behind us.

現在請看投影片第 4 頁，更深入回顧氯鹼產品與乙烯基（Chlor Alkali Products & Vinyls）。第一季結果反映了 Beyond250 帶動的營運成本下降，以及低於預期的歲修（maintenance turnaround）成本。商品氯（merchant chlorine）需求受季節性影響偏弱，但在年末客戶去庫存告一段落後，較第四季有所改善。

We saw chlorine demand into water treatment and crop protection rebound nicely in mid-March as US temperatures warmed. Caustic soda continues to be the stronger side of the ECU. Global demand is stable against the backdrop of tightening supply and a rising cost curve for non-US producers, which sets up for improved earnings as we move through the year.

隨著美國氣溫回暖，我們在 3 月中旬看到氯在水處理與作物保護領域的需求明顯回升。燒鹼（caustic soda）仍是 ECU 中較強的一端。在供應收緊、且非美國生產商成本曲線上移的背景下，全球需求維持穩定，這為我們在今年推進過程中帶來獲利改善的契機。

Several Asian vinyls producers have declared force majeure due to limited access to feedstocks and rapidly increasing costs. This disruption constrains Chlor Alkali production, reducing the availability of co-produced caustic soda. While China has been less affected given its significant coal-based vinyls production, the net impact has been a meaningful reduction in global supply. Trade publications estimate that 6% to 9% of annual vinyls capacity is impacted globally.

由於原料取得受限且成本快速上升，數家亞洲乙烯基生產商已宣布不可抗力（force majeure）。此一擾動限制了氯鹼產量，降低了共生產的燒鹼供給。雖然中國因其大量以煤為基礎的乙烯基產能而受影響較小，但整體淨效應仍是全球供給顯著下降。貿易刊物估計，全球約有 6% 至 9% 的年度乙烯基產能受到影響。

All of this drove a sharp spike in global pricing in late March, with levels now moderating as inventories are depleted. US export EDC prices significantly increased since January. We expect EDC and caustic soda pricing to stabilize at higher levels compared to earlier in the year as shortages persist and production costs remain high. Olin has announced a total of $185 per ton in domestic caustic soda price increases for implementation in the first half of 2026. We continue to aggressively implement the balance of our price announcements.

上述因素在 3 月下旬推升全球價格急劇上漲，而目前隨著庫存被消耗，價格水準正逐步回落並趨於溫和。自 1 月以來，美國出口 EDC 價格大幅上升。我們預期，隨著短缺持續且生產成本維持高檔，EDC 與燒鹼價格將在較年初更高的水準上趨於穩定。奧林已宣布 2026 年上半年在美國國內燒鹼累計每噸 185 美元的漲價措施。我們將持續積極落實其餘的漲價公告。

Slide 5 provides a look at our Epoxy results. First quarter 2026 marks an important milestone as our Epoxy business returned to profitability. We expect full-year Epoxy performance to be meaningfully improved with our return to profitability driven by several well-executed actions. Our Epoxy team has grown our European business in the wake of regional rationalizations. Our new European cost structure is on course to deliver $40 million to $50 million of annual cost improvement.

投影片第 5 頁呈現我們的環氧樹脂（Epoxy）業績。2026 年第一季是一個重要里程碑，因為我們的環氧樹脂業務恢復獲利。我們預期全年環氧樹脂表現將顯著改善；此次恢復獲利是由多項執行到位的行動所驅動。在區域產能理性化之後，我們的環氧樹脂團隊擴大了歐洲業務。我們新的歐洲成本結構正按計畫推進，預計可帶來每年 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元的成本改善。

Our Formulated Solutions portfolio continues to provide a high margin platform for growth with a strategic focus on electronics, semiconductors, and power generation. And our recent plant closure in Guarujá, Brazil will further improve our cost structure and strengthen supply integration. In addition to these actions, we are focused on raising prices, which have been significantly depressed due to subsidized Asian supply.

我們的配方解決方案（Formulated Solutions）產品組合持續提供高毛利的成長平台，策略重點聚焦於電子、半導體與發電領域。而我們近期關閉巴西 Guarujá 的工廠，將進一步改善成本結構並強化供應整合。除上述行動外，我們也專注於提高價格；目前價格因受補貼的亞洲供給而被大幅壓低。

Olin announced March and April epoxy resin price increases totaling more than $1,200 per ton in North America and EUR1,300 per metric ton in Europe. We expect these increases to offset the higher feedstock and transportation costs.

奧林宣布 3 月與 4 月的環氧樹脂漲價：北美合計超過每噸 1,200 美元，歐洲則為每公噸 EUR1,300。我們預期這些漲幅將抵銷較高的原料與運輸成本。

Let's now turn to slide 6 for an update on our Winchester business. Winchester's first quarter performance was a significant improvement. The team took decisive actions in the second half of last year to rebalance channel inventories and position the business for improved commercial volume and price. As a result, we have regained commercial pricing traction, and retail shipments are moving back into alignment with out-the-door sales. As retailer purchases align, we would expect to realize a commercial volume uplift of mid-to high-single digits year-over-year.

接著請看投影片第 6 頁，更新我們的 Winchester 業務。Winchester 第一季表現顯著改善。團隊在去年下半年採取果斷行動，重新平衡通路庫存，並使業務定位於提升商用銷量與價格。因此，我們已重新取得商用定價動能，零售出貨也正回到與終端銷售（out-the-door sales）一致的水準。隨著零售商採購趨於一致，我們預期商用銷量可實現年增中至高個位數的提升。

Raw material costs remain a headwind, particularly copper, as well as brass and propellants. We expect that our pricing actions, once implemented, will offset the majority of 2025 cost inflation. However, we expect to continue to see cost pressure as we go through the year. We're continuing to operate a disciplined make-to-demand model that aligns to our value-first commercial approach.

原物料成本仍是逆風，尤其是銅，另包括黃銅與推進劑。我們預期，一旦定價措施落實，將可抵銷 2025 年成本通膨的大部分影響。然而，我們預期在今年推進過程中仍將持續面臨成本壓力。我們將持續以紀律化的「依需求生產」（make-to-demand）模式營運，並與我們「價值優先」的商業策略保持一致。

As a result, we're building a strong commercial backlog while tightly managing our working capital. Winchester is a core part of Olin's portfolio. With its iconic global brand, long-standing relationships with leading retailers, the U.S. military, and a broad base of international customers, the business is well-positioned to deliver durable, long-term growth and value creation.

因此，我們在嚴格管理營運資金的同時，正建立強勁的商用訂單積壓（backlog）。Winchester 是奧林產品組合的核心部分。憑藉其具代表性的全球品牌、與主要零售商及美國軍方的長期合作關係，以及廣泛的國際客戶基礎，該業務具備良好條件，可帶來穩健、長期的成長與價值創造。

I'll now turn the call over to Todd for a look at our financial highlights.

現在我把電話交給 Todd，請他帶我們看一下財務重點。

Thanks, Ken. Let's review our cash flow, liquidity, and financial foundation. Our top priority continues to be generating strong cash flow to preserve and further enhance liquidity. In February, we took proactive steps to amend our bank credit facilities, providing greater covenant flexibility through late 2027. As a result, we maintain full access to our revolving credit facility and $1.3 billion of available liquidity.

謝謝你，Ken。讓我們檢視我們的現金流、流動性與財務基礎。我們的首要任務仍是產生強勁的現金流，以維持並進一步提升流動性。2 月，我們主動採取措施修訂銀行授信額度，將契約條款（covenant）的彈性延長至 2027 年底。因此，我們仍可完全動用循環信用額度，並擁有 13 億美元的可用流動性。

Our debt structure is well-organized with manageable tranches and staggered bond maturities over the coming years, and no maturities before 2029. As is typical with seasonal working capital needs, net debt and leverage increased in the first quarter. We expect net debt to rise during the first half of 2026 as we make payments to resolve legacy litigation matters. Now, let me take a moment to discuss our outlook for expected uses of cash in 2026.

我們的債務結構規劃良好，分期規模可控，且未來數年債券到期日分散，並且在 2029 年之前沒有到期。依季節性營運資金需求的典型情況，第一季淨負債與槓桿比率上升。我們預期 2026 年上半年，隨著我們支付款項以解決歷史訴訟事項，淨負債將上升。接下來，我想花點時間談談我們對 2026 年預期現金用途的展望。

First, regarding cash taxes. We anticipate receiving refunds from prior years related to clean hydrogen production tax credits under Section 45V as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Factoring in these refunds, we expect 2026 to essentially be a cash-free tax year, plus or minus $20 million. We are proactively managing our capital spending, targeting approximately $200 million with a focus on funding sustaining capital expenditures to ensure safe and reliable operations of our assets.

首先，關於現金稅。我們預期將收到與過往年度相關的退稅，該退稅源自《2022 年通膨削減法案》下第 45V 條的清潔氫氣生產稅額抵免。將這些退稅納入考量後，我們預期 2026 年基本上將是一個現金稅為零的年度，上下浮動約 2,000 萬美元。我們也正主動管理資本支出，目標約 2 億美元，重點在於資助維持性資本支出，以確保資產安全且可靠地運作。

We expect to continue our nearly century-long history of uninterrupted quarterly dividend payments. As we further strengthen our financial resilience, any remaining excess cash flow after the preceding capital allocation priorities will be used to reduce our outstanding debt. We remain firmly committed to managing our balance sheet in a way that maximizes our financial flexibility for the future. We anticipate ending the year with a debt leverage ratio of just above 4 times.

我們預期將延續近百年來不中斷的季度股利發放紀錄。隨著我們進一步強化財務韌性，在完成前述資本配置優先事項後，任何剩餘的超額現金流將用於降低未償債務。我們仍堅定致力於以能最大化未來財務彈性的方式管理資產負債表。我們預期年底的債務槓桿比率將略高於 4 倍。

Looking forward, our goal remains to average below 2 times leverage across the cycle. Our team's focus is on generating cash, strict cost control, and advancing our Beyond250 structural cost reduction program and a value-first commercial approach.

展望未來，我們的目標仍是在景氣循環中平均將槓桿比率維持在 2 倍以下。我們團隊的重點是創造現金、嚴格成本控管，並推進 Beyond250 結構性成本削減計畫，以及以價值優先的商業策略。

Before I turn the call back to Ken, I want to comment on Beyond250. The program is designed to permanently remove structural costs, not simply “trim around the edges”. We have a clear line of sight to more than $250 million of cumulative savings by 2028. We delivered $44 million of structural savings last year and expect to deliver an incremental $100 million to $120 million in 2026.

在我把電話交回給 Ken 之前，我想談談 Beyond250。此計畫旨在永久移除結構性成本，而不只是「修修補補」。我們清楚可見到在 2028 年前累計節省超過 2.5 億美元的路徑。我們去年實現了 4,400 萬美元的結構性節省，並預期在 2026 年再額外實現 1 億至 1.2 億美元。

Every day, we continue to expand our Beyond250 scope with a focus on people and processes. We're making great progress on safety with record performance in the first quarter. Our efficiency gains are well socialized and measurable. For example, we've nearly doubled our Freeport, Texas, time on tools. We have transformed our maintenance planning by leveraging historical data and AI tools to evolve from a reactive, time-based scheduling to a proactive risk-based approach.

我們每天都持續擴大 Beyond250 的範疇，聚焦於人員與流程。我們在安全方面進展顯著，第一季創下紀錄表現。我們的效率提升已廣為宣導且可衡量。舉例來說，我們在德州 Freeport 的「工具作業時間」（time on tools）幾乎翻倍。我們也運用歷史資料與 AI 工具，改造維修規劃，從被動、以時間為基礎的排程，演進為主動、以風險為基礎的方法。

We've streamlined the organization, reducing site headcount by 15% while reducing our reliance on contractors and improving reliability. To sum up, we are preserving a durable balance sheet, generating healthy cash flows, and maintaining a prudent capital structure to drive long-term shareholder value.

我們已精簡組織，在降低對承包商依賴並提升可靠性的同時，將廠區人力編制減少 15%。總結來說，我們正維持穩健的資產負債表、創造健康的現金流，並維持審慎的資本結構，以推動長期股東價值。

Ken, let me hand the call back to you.

Ken，我把電話交回給你。

Thanks, Todd. Let's finish up with slide 8 and our outlook for the second quarter. With improved pricing and seasonally higher demand, we expect to realize significantly improved earnings in our CAPV business. Our second quarter outlook includes an estimated impact from an unplanned Vinyls outage at our Freeport, Texas, plant. We're expecting to restart these assets late next week. Olin's value-first commercial approach has preserved our ECU values through an extended trough, and provides an attractive starting point as we begin the next cycle.

謝謝，Todd。讓我們以第 8 張投影片與第二季展望作結。隨著價格改善與季節性需求走高，我們預期 CAPV 事業將實現顯著改善的獲利。我們的第二季展望包含德州 Freeport 工廠 Vinyls（氯乙烯/乙烯基）裝置非計畫性停機的估計影響。我們預期將在下週稍晚重啟這些資產。Olin 以價值優先的商業策略，讓我們在延長的景氣谷底期間仍能維持 ECU 價值，並在我們開始下一個循環時提供具吸引力的起點。

Looking out a little further, the Chlor Alkali supply-demand dynamics are favorable with limited additional capacity, the likelihood of further asset rationalization, and a still to come housing and construction demand recovery. Chlor Alkali is well-positioned to rebound from this historic trough.

再往前看一些，氯鹼（Chlor Alkali）的供需動態偏向有利，新增產能有限，資產進一步合理化的可能性存在，且住房與建築需求復甦仍在後續。氯鹼業務具備從這次歷史性谷底反彈的良好條件。

In our Epoxy business, we expect to see earnings improvement with higher seasonal demand, improved pricing, and continued cost improvements. We're realizing the benefits of being a strong, integrated local producer as customers seek reliable supply in the face of tremendous uncertainty.

在我們的環氧樹脂（Epoxy）業務方面，我們預期在季節性需求走高、價格改善以及持續的成本改善帶動下，獲利將提升。面對高度不確定性，客戶尋求可靠供應，我們作為強大且一體化的在地生產商，正持續實現其效益。

Winchester second quarter results are also expected to improve sequentially, with higher commercial ammunition volume and pricing and higher military sales. With that, we expect to deliver second quarter adjusted EBITDA in the range of $160 million to $200 million, a significant sequential improvement.

Winchester 第二季結果也預期將較前一季改善，受惠於商用彈藥銷量與價格提高，以及軍用銷售增加。因此，我們預期第二季調整後 EBITDA 將落在 1.6 億至 2 億美元區間，較前一季大幅改善。

Operator, we're now ready to begin Q&A.

接線員，我們現在準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global Advisors.

（接線員指示）Hassan Ahmed，Alembic Global Advisors。

Just a question on the guidance. Obviously, you guys did $86 million or so in EBITDA in Q1 and are guiding to, I mean, if I were to take the midpoint, call it $180 million in Q2. So I'm just trying to get a better sense of bridging that $100 million or so in incremental EBITDA.

我有一個關於財測的問題。很明顯你們第一季 EBITDA 大約是 8,600 萬美元，而你們對第二季的指引，如果取中位數，大約是 1.8 億美元。所以我想更清楚了解，這大約 1 億美元的 EBITDA 增量是如何銜接出來的。

I mean, how much are you guys getting from Beyond250? How much of that is some of these opportunities that you guys see via the conflict in the Middle East? How much from sort of incremental, sort of, call it caustic and EDC export opportunities?

也就是說，你們從 Beyond250 得到多少？有多少來自你們因中東衝突而看到的一些機會？又有多少來自額外的，例如苛性鈉與 EDC 的出口機會？

Good morning, Hassan. Thank you for the question. The bridge to between Q1 to Q2 really is, there are a lot of variables that are contributing to that. The largest one is going to be improvement in CAPV from the first quarter. That is going to be driven by improved pricing. Yes, we're going to continue to have some headwinds related to the turnaround costs, but assets are going to be running again, and so we will have higher volume in the second quarter, as well as higher pricing in the second quarter for CAPV.

早安，Hassan。謝謝你的提問。從第一季到第二季的銜接，確實有很多變數在共同影響。其中最大的一項將是 CAPV 相較第一季的改善，這將由價格改善所驅動。是的，我們仍會面臨與歲修成本相關的一些逆風，但資產將重新運轉，因此第二季 CAPV 的銷量會更高，同時第二季 CAPV 的價格也會更高。

So both of those things are going to drive a big part of it, but we are going to continue to see benefits from improved costs in the second quarter. Again, netting out the impact from the turnaround. Now we've also built into that outlook, some of the impact or the impact that we currently estimate related to the outage in the Vinyls assets down at Freeport. We are expecting to have those assets restarted late next week, so that is reflected there.

因此，這兩項將推動其中很大一部分；同時，我們也將在第二季持續看到成本改善帶來的效益——同樣是在扣除歲修影響後。此外，我們也已在該展望中納入目前估計的影響，也就是 Freeport 當地 Vinyls 資產停機所造成的影響。我們預期下週稍晚會重啟這些資產，因此已反映在其中。

So that unfortunately takes a little bit out and we've certainly want to make sure we get that done timely and safely, because it's important to get those assets back up when we're seeing the pricing environment that we are for those products. If you look at Epoxy and Winchester, we're going to continue to see improvements in the Epoxy business. So we'll see the seasonal uplift that we normally see for Epoxy. So we are going to see improving demand.

因此，不幸的是這會稍微拉低一些表現；我們也確實希望確保能及時且安全地完成，因為在我們看到這些產品目前的價格環境時，讓這些資產恢復運轉非常重要。若看環氧樹脂與 Winchester，我們將持續看到環氧樹脂業務的改善。我們會看到環氧樹脂通常會出現的季節性上升，因此需求將改善。

And like I said in the prepared remarks, the team did an outstanding job really trying to position Olin as the last integrated epoxy producer in Europe, and being able to leverage that into a stronger market position with respect to volume growth in 2026 versus 2025. So that's going to continue into the second quarter.

而且如同我在事先準備的發言中所說，團隊做得非常出色，努力將 Olin 定位為歐洲最後一家一體化環氧樹脂生產商，並能將此優勢轉化為更強的市場地位，特別是在 2026 年相較 2025 年的銷量成長方面。因此，這將延續到第二季。

And then the momentum that we saw building from Winchester and the actions that Winchester took late last year to really start to rebalance things, because last year was sort of the perfect storm with higher costs, lower demand, and high inventories. That really has all corrected with the exception of the cost side of that equation, but inventories are certainly back where they're much more comfortable, let's say.

接著是我們看到 Winchester 動能的累積，以及 Winchester 在去年底採取的行動，確實開始重新平衡整體狀況，因為去年可說是「完美風暴」：成本更高、需求更低、庫存偏高。除了成本面這個等式的一端之外，其他基本上都已修正；但庫存確實已回到更令人安心的水位。

And demand has started to come back. So we are seeing year-over-year growth for the first time in over a year. So that is very good to see. All of those things combined is what creates that uplift, but again, the biggest uplift is going to be coming out of CAPV.

而且需求已開始回升。因此，我們首次在一年多以來看到年增成長。這點非常令人振奮。所有這些因素加總起來，才形成這波上行，但再次強調，最大的上行將來自 CAPV。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

Frank Mitsch，Fermium Research。

Good morning. I wanted to get your thoughts on pricing as we exit 2Q. I mean, I think you have a fairly good line of sight on where you stand today and what your plans are in terms of getting price increases in June. As you think about the average 2Q price across your company versus where you're going to exit 2Q, I would imagine that sets up at a higher level for 3Q. So any way that you can kind of give us some orders of magnitude around expectations on the momentum on the pricing side?

早安。我想請教您對於我們在走出第二季（2Q）時的定價看法。我的意思是，我認為你們對目前所處位置，以及你們在 6 月推動漲價的計畫，應該有相當清晰的能見度。當你們思考公司整體第二季平均價格，相較於你們在第二季末的出場水準，我想這會讓第三季（3Q）的起點落在更高的水準。因此，是否能請你們以某種方式給我們一些量級上的概念，說明在定價動能方面的預期？

Good morning, Frank. Thanks for joining. As you can imagine, yeah, we already saw -- we'll start with CAPV. In the first quarter, we were already seeing momentum with caustic pricing coming out of the fourth quarter into the first quarter before everything started happening around the world that we saw late in the first quarter. So we're going to see that improvement really start to hit in Q2, but even with the lag that we see in some of the product lines and some of the businesses, yes, there's going to be good momentum continuing into the third quarter, and I expect that that's going to carry through the year, to be honest with you. So if I think about CAPV, you think about caustic, you think about EDC, those are really going to be the two big needle movers. Those price levels are going to continue to be elevated versus where we thought they were going to be at the beginning of the first quarter.

早安，Frank。謝謝你加入。如你所想，是的，我們已經看到——我先從 CAPV 談起。第一季時，我們已經看到苛性鈉價格的動能，從第四季延續到第一季，在第一季末全球各地發生我們所看到的那些事件之前就已出現。因此，我們會看到這項改善在第二季（Q2）真正開始反映出來；但即便在部分產品線與部分業務上存在我們看到的滯後效應，是的，良好的動能仍將延續到第三季，我坦白說，我預期這會一路延續到今年全年。所以如果我看 CAPV，你想到苛性鈉，你想到 EDC，這兩項將會是最主要的關鍵驅動因素。這些價格水準將持續高於我們在第一季初所預期的水準。

We do see that continuing into the third quarter. Some of the dynamics that we've seen, though, is we had a really fast run-up in these prices, and then we saw them moderate a little bit. And what we saw happening in the market is people who had inventory, as you would expect, they were pushing a lot of that volume into the markets when the prices were spiking.

我們確實看到這種情況延續到第三季。不過，我們觀察到的一些動態是：這些價格曾非常快速地上漲，之後又稍微回落。而我們在市場上看到的是，手上有庫存的人如你所預期，在價格飆升時把大量的量推向市場。

And so we see that coming down, and we think that once that has played through, and you got to remember even today, with talk about there being a ceasefire and everything in the Middle East, Brent oil is still over $100 a barrel, and you're looking at natural gas here in the US at $2.70, $2.80. That's still a really sizable advantage for US producers.

因此我們看到那股力量正在消退，我們認為一旦這些影響消化完畢——而且你要記得，即使到今天，市場在談中東可能停火等等，布蘭特原油仍然在每桶 100 美元以上；而你看美國這邊的天然氣在 2.70、2.80 美元。這對美國生產商而言仍是相當可觀的優勢。

And in addition to that, you've taken basically out of the market all of that sanctioned oil that was going into a lot of assets in Asia at a significant discount that was creating a big distortion in the market. All of that is now gone. So that is going to be very constructive for pricing as we go into the third quarter. So generally speaking, I think you're just going to start to see it in Q2, but really see it even more as you go out later in the year.

此外，基本上你已經把那些受制裁、以大幅折價流向亞洲許多資產、並造成市場重大扭曲的原油供給移出了市場。那些現在都不見了。因此，這將在我們進入第三季時對定價非常有利。總體而言，我認為你會在第二季開始看到這些影響，但在今年稍晚時會看得更明顯。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

Mike Sison，Wells Fargo。

When you think about 2Q, the $160 million to $200 million, how would you sort of describe the earnings levels? Are we approaching a mid-cycle sort of number? It doesn't feel like peak, particularly on volume. So just when you think about where pricing is going to set up, and then as you head in longer term, do you think some of this is sustainable where maybe '27 can -- will have structurally higher pricing and margins for the industry?

當你們看第二季（2Q）那個 1.6 億到 2 億美元的區間時，你們會如何描述獲利水準？我們是否正在接近某種中周期（mid-cycle）的數字？感覺不像是高峰，尤其在出貨量方面。所以當你們思考定價將如何定位，以及更長期來看，你們是否認為其中一些是可持續的，讓例如 2027 年可能——將會在結構上擁有更高的產業定價與利潤率？

Good morning, Mike. Thanks for joining. As you think back to what we had said at Investor Day, we're not anywhere near what we would consider our normalized level of earnings. We definitely have seen an improvement from where we were at the beginning of the first quarter. There's no doubt about that, but even with this step up in earnings that we're going to see in Q2 and later in the year, I think what it really reflects is what we tried to emphasize at the Investor Day back at the end of 2024, which is the fact that there is a lot of leverage in Olin's portfolio.

早安，Mike。謝謝你加入。回想我們在投資人日所說的，我們離我們認為的常態化獲利水準還差得很遠。毫無疑問，我們確實看到相較第一季初已有改善；但即便我們將在第二季以及今年稍晚看到這一步的獲利提升，我認為它真正反映的是我們在 2024 年底投資人日試圖強調的一點：Olin 的投資組合具有很大的槓桿效應。

And when you start to see demand come back and you do start to see the supply-demand balance get more normalized, as we've said, there is a lot of leverage here to the upside. So we're not anywhere close to being at a normalized or what you may call mid-cycle level of earnings. We think that that's still out in the future.

當你開始看到需求回來，並且供需平衡開始更趨於常態化時，正如我們所說，這裡有很大的向上槓桿。因此，我們離常態化、或你可能稱之為中周期的獲利水準還差得很遠。我們認為那仍在未來。

Once we start to see things like housing recovery -- recover and infrastructure and general construction coming back in both Europe and in the US, which is going to happen. And I just want to remind you what I had said on the call as well. It is very constructive when you look at the outlook for Chlor Alkali supply and demand. The amount of additional capacity that is being added, the amount of rationalization that has happened and probably will continue to happen is going to be really constructive for us.

一旦我們開始看到像是房市復甦——回升，以及歐洲與美國的基礎建設與一般建築活動回來——這是會發生的。我也想提醒你我在電話會議上提到的：當你看氯鹼（Chlor Alkali）供需展望時，這是非常有利的。新增產能的規模、已經發生且可能還會持續發生的產能出清（rationalization），都將對我們非常有利。

So there is still much more leverage here in Olin still to come, and you're just seeing the beginning of some of that now. So when you ask about long-term sustainability, yes, I mean, we're in the trough and we're going to come out of the trough. And I do think that the markets that we're in and the markets that we serve are really set up well to see that sooner than maybe others.

因此，Olin 仍有更多的向上槓桿尚待釋放，而你現在看到的只是其中一部分的開始。所以當你問到長期可持續性，是的，我的意思是，我們正處於谷底，並且將走出谷底。我也確實認為，我們所處的市場以及我們服務的市場，條件已經相當到位，可能會比其他市場更早看到這一點。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

Patrick Cunningham，Citi。

Hi, good morning. You alluded to some of this price normalization, obviously, EDC being the one that's top of mind. I guess, first, what sort of sensitivity should we expect on EDC prices or perhaps you could help us with the price levels that are embedded within the outlook. And just in terms of the volume uplifts, or value rather, how much is embedded within the Braskem arrangement versus how much opportunistic volume do you have to sell here?

嗨，早安。你們提到了一些價格常態化的情況，顯然 EDC 是大家最關注的。我想先問，對於 EDC 價格，我們應該預期多大的敏感度？或者你們是否能協助我們了解，展望中所隱含的價格水準大概是多少？另外，就量的提升——或更精確地說是價值提升——Braskem 的安排中隱含了多少？以及你們這邊還有多少可機會性出售的量？

Good morning, Patrick. Thank you for the question. So one of the things if you look at how we're trying to manage the portfolio, we have talked a lot about having optionality, especially around our chlorine outlets and how we're able to flex that as we see markets recover. But we also want to have a diverse set of options. It's not just about having one big option. We want to have multiple options because all of these markets will recover at different rates.

早安，Patrick。謝謝你的問題。如果你看我們如何管理投資組合，其中一件事是我們談了很多關於保有選擇權（optionality），特別是圍繞我們的氯產品出路（chlorine outlets），以及在市場復甦時我們如何彈性調整。但我們也希望擁有多元的選項組合。不只是擁有一個很大的選項；我們希望有多個選項，因為這些市場的復甦速度會各不相同。

EDC is clearly one that's really important for us. The strategic relationship that we announced with Braskem is one that will be very accretive for us through the cycle, but that only represents part of our EDC volume. We continue to have also part of that EDC portfolio for us that will have a spot exposure, but we're trying to get a balance there. We don't want to have everything spot. We don't want to have everything that's in a long-term contract. And we're doing that to be able to optimize and create the highest value that we can for Olin through the cycle. That is our strategy.

EDC 顯然是對我們非常重要的一項。我們與 Braskem 宣布的策略性關係，將在整個景氣循環中對我們非常具增益（accretive），但那只代表我們 EDC 量的一部分。我們也仍保留 EDC 投資組合中的一部分，會有現貨（spot）曝險，但我們正試圖在其中取得平衡。我們不希望全部都是現貨；也不希望全部都在長約之下。我們這麼做，是為了能在景氣循環中為 Olin 最佳化並創造我們所能達到的最高價值。這就是我們的策略。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research Partners。

Thank you and good morning. Ken, can you provide an update on your EDC and VCM operations at Freeport? Last quarter, I think you flagged a major triennial plant turnaround, and in your prepared remarks this morning, I thought I heard reference to an unplanned outage. So, I'm not sure if those are related or unrelated, but maybe you can kind of talk through the operational outlook there in the quarter.

謝謝，早安。Ken，您能否就 Freeport 的 EDC 與 VCM 營運提供最新進度？上季我記得您提到一次重大的三年期工廠大修，而在您今天早上的事先準備發言中，我似乎也聽到提及一次非計畫性停機。所以我不確定兩者是否相關或無關，但也許您可以談談本季該處的營運展望。

Sure. Thanks for the question, Kevin. Yeah, we -- in the second quarter, we completed that turnaround that we had started talking about at the last earnings call. You may recall that we talked about that bridging across the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter, but we did successfully complete that, restarted the VCM assets in Freeport, and that all went very well. The team did an outstanding job executing that turnaround safely, a little bit ahead of schedule, and on budget.

當然。謝謝你的提問，Kevin。是的，我們——在第二季完成了那次我們在上次財報電話會議就開始談到的大修。你可能記得我們提到那次大修跨越第一季末與第二季初，但我們確實順利完成，並在 Freeport 重新啟動 VCM 資產，一切進展非常順利。團隊在安全前提下出色地執行了這次大修，進度略早於原定時程，且符合預算。

So it was very good, very well executed. Unfortunately, we've had an unplanned event here recently that has brought down the Vinyls assets at Freeport. As I said earlier, we're in the middle of running through our RCA, making sure that we've got everything established to be able to restart those assets safely. And the current plan is to restart those assets late next week, and I've got confidence that the team is going to be able to do that and execute on that as well as they did with the turnaround.

所以整體而言非常好、執行得很到位。不幸的是，我們最近發生了一起非計畫性事件，導致 Freeport 的 Vinyls 資產停機。如我先前所說，我們正在進行 RCA（根本原因分析），確保已建立所有條件以便能安全地重新啟動這些資產。目前計畫是在下週末前後重啟這些資產，我有信心團隊能做到，並且像大修時一樣把執行做得很好。

So all of that looks to be coming back into good condition and good shape here in the next week or so.

因此，這些狀況看起來在接下來一週左右就會恢復到良好狀態與良好運作。

Josh Spector, UBS.

Josh Spector，UBS。

Good morning. I wanted to ask broadly just about caustic dynamics here. I think -- I mean, obviously you're going for additional pricing, and you've alluded to that. But when I look at Asia pricing relative to US pricing, I mean, the US seems to have moved to a bit of a premium here. And typically, caustic production is going to increase as PVC production increases over the next few months.

早安。我想從整體面來問一下苛性鈉的供需動態。我想——我的意思是，顯然你們正在爭取進一步的漲價，你們也提到過。但當我看亞洲價格相對於美國價格時，我的意思是，美國這邊似乎已經出現了一些溢價。而通常，隨著未來幾個月 PVC 產量增加，苛性鈉產量也會增加。

So really the question is, how do you expect North America prices to move higher if North America is going to maybe have more caustic to deal with in a few months and the manufacturing backdrop isn't that strong? I guess, what am I missing on the pricing dynamic that pushes that even higher from here?

所以真正的問題是，如果北美在幾個月後可能會面臨更多苛性鈉需要消化、而製造業景氣背景又沒那麼強，你們預期北美價格要如何再往上走？我想問的是，在推動價格從這裡再上去的動態上，我漏掉了什麼？

Good morning, Josh. Thank you for joining us. There are a lot of dynamics going on in the caustic market that I think people probably underestimate, and thinking linearly about what's happening is and saying what happened in the past is what's going to happen in the current environment. There are so many things that have changed when you think about freight rates, you think about the disruptions just in the supply chains.

早安，Josh。謝謝你加入我們。苛性鈉市場有很多動態，我想大家可能低估了；若用線性思維去看正在發生的事，並認為過去發生的事在當前環境也會同樣發生，可能會失準。當你想到運費、想到供應鏈的各種中斷，有太多事情已經改變了。

So I'll give you an example. There used to be caustic coming into the East Coast from Europe, there was caustic coming in from the West Coast from Asia, and that's pretty much gone now. So all of those dynamics are very different than if you just look at a price in a reported index in Asia or somewhere else. It really becomes, well, what's the availability of product that drives the pricing as much as looking at the arbitrage, because you've got a big step up in freight costs as well.

我舉個例子。過去有苛性鈉從歐洲運到美國東岸，也有苛性鈉從亞洲運到美國西岸，而現在這些幾乎都消失了。所以，這些動態與你只看亞洲或其他地方某個報價指數上的價格，是非常不同的。真正影響定價的，除了看套利之外，更多是產品可得性，因為運費成本也大幅上升。

So that is going to be driving the dynamics here for really the foreseeable future. I don't see that changing. But I want to back up to the first quarter because we're all focused on what's happening just right now. Even back between the fourth quarter and the first quarter, with stable demand, we were already seeing price momentum with caustic. There was an overcorrection last year in caustic. The market was tighter than what people believed, and you saw that begin to recover even before what we see happening currently in the Middle East.

因此，這將在可預見的未來驅動這些市場動態。我不認為這會改變。但我想回到第一季，因為我們都只聚焦在眼前正在發生的事。其實早在第四季到第一季之間，在需求穩定的情況下，我們就已經看到苛性鈉的價格動能。去年苛性鈉出現了過度修正。市場其實比大家以為的更緊，你也看到在目前中東情勢之前，市場就已開始回升。

So all of that, I still believe is constructive for the pricing environment around caustic, and so we're still going to be bullish as we look forward because we think that nothing has fundamentally changed. You've taken capacity off, demand is relatively stable, costs are higher, prices should go up in that environment.

所以綜合以上，我仍然認為苛性鈉的定價環境是建設性的；往前看我們仍會偏多，因為我們認為基本面沒有根本改變。你已經移除了部分產能，需求相對穩定，成本更高，在那樣的環境下價格就應該上升。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

Matthew Blair，TPH。

Thanks, and good morning, Ken and Todd. Ken, I think you mentioned that 6% to 9% of global Vinyls capacity is currently offline due to the Iran war. Is that also a good estimate for global ECU capacity that's offline? And perhaps more importantly, in terms of the duration how quickly could these assets return and how quickly could supply chain normalize if there was a true ceasefire, peace deal announced tomorrow?

謝謝，早安，Ken 和 Todd。Ken，我想你提到目前因伊朗戰爭，全球約有 6% 到 9% 的 Vinyls 產能離線。這是否也是全球 ECU 產能離線的合理估計？另外更重要的是，就持續時間而言，如果明天真的宣布全面停火、達成和平協議，這些資產能多快回來、供應鏈能多快恢復正常？

Good morning, Matthew. Well, maybe I'll start with your second question because I think a ceasefire's already been announced, and it still is disrupted. I think this is going to linger for quite a while. And if you look at these supply chain disruptions in the past, even it's not a light switch. You don't turn this back on and everything goes back to normal. Ships get out of position, feedstocks are not available for a period of time, and that lingers for weeks, months, typically.

早安，Matthew。也許我先回答你的第二個問題，因為我認為停火其實已經宣布了，但供應仍然受干擾。我認為這會持續相當一段時間。回顧過去的供應鏈中斷，這不是電燈開關，不是你把它打開就一切恢復正常。船舶會偏離原本位置，一段時間內原料供應不足，而這通常會延續數週、數月。

So that's why I'm optimistic that structural support for higher prices and benefits for companies like Olin, who have assets in regions that have good access to low energy and raw materials, is going to be constructive for us. I don't see that really reversing in the short term. I think it's going to take a little bit longer.

因此我才會樂觀地認為，對於像 Olin 這樣在具備低能源與原料取得優勢地區擁有資產的公司而言，支撐更高價格的結構性因素與帶來的效益，將對我們有利。我不認為短期內會反轉；我認為還需要更長一點時間。

Going back to your first question. The 6% to 9% that's been reported for Vinyls capacity that's offline, yeah, I mean, if you don't have a place to put the chlorine, then the ECUs are not going to be produced. So yes, I do believe that that is a good proxy for thinking about that.

回到你的第一個問題。外界報導有 6% 到 9% 的 Vinyls 產能離線——是的，我的意思是，如果你沒有地方去消化氯，那 ECU 就不會被生產。所以是的，我確實認為這是思考該問題的一個良好替代指標。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

David Begleiter，德意志銀行。

Thank you. Good morning. Ken, on your Vinyl strategy, has the conflict in the last two months influenced your thinking on how you pursue a Vinyl strategy down the road? And just a housekeeping item, on slide 15, the turn on expenses, does the Q2 forecast of $42 million include the unplanned outage? If not, how much is that unplanned outage in Vinyl?

謝謝。早安。Ken，關於你們的 Vinyl 策略，過去兩個月的衝突是否影響了你對未來如何推進 Vinyl 策略的想法？另外一個行政性問題：在第 15 頁投影片，關於 turn on expenses，第二季預估的 4,200 萬美元是否包含這次非計畫性停機？如果沒有，這次 Vinyl 的非計畫性停機大約是多少？

Good morning, David. Appreciate you joining us. So the vinyls strategy is not impacted by what's going on in the world today. It's still an important market for us and one that we are focusing on longer term to make sure that we have access to that. When we think about all of the options that we've discussed, extending the current agreement that we've got with our fenceline customer at Freeport is still a priority for us, but there are other good options that we are looking at, and one thing that I would say is this probably -- I shouldn't say probably. This does make some of the other options around partnerships look more attractive, especially to some of the partners that we're working with. So that is a good thing, but it doesn't change our focus on wanting to grow in the vinyls space longer term. So, the strategy is still intact. It's just we've got to continue to work through the options that are in front of us.

早安，David。感謝你加入我們。所以，Vinyls 策略不會受到當今世界所發生事情的影響。這仍然是我們的重要市場，也是我們長期聚焦、確保能取得相關布局的領域。當我們思考先前討論過的所有選項時，延長我們在 Freeport 與鄰廠客戶（fenceline customer）現有的協議仍是我們的優先事項，但我們也在評估其他不錯的選項。我想說的一點是，這可能——我不該說可能。這確實讓一些關於合作夥伴關係的其他選項看起來更具吸引力，特別是對我們正在合作的一些夥伴而言。這是好事，但不會改變我們長期希望在 Vinyls 領域成長的聚焦。因此，策略仍然完整不變；只是我們必須持續把眼前的各項選項逐一推進。

The question that you had around the turnaround expenses for the second quarter, that does not include the unplanned events that we're talking about at Freeport. That would be an incremental impact in the second quarter that, again, we've reflected in the outlook that we gave.

你先前關於第二季檢修（turnaround）費用的問題，其中不包含我們在 Freeport 所談到的那些非計畫性事件。那將會在第二季帶來額外的影響，而我們也已再次把這點反映在我們所提供的展望之中。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

Arun Viswanathan，RBC Capital Markets。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Hope you guys are well. I guess, what -- my main question is really on the duration of the earnings power here. You're guiding to about $180 million for Q2. Various peers of yours in the space have given various lengths of time for normalization between, call it, three to six months. Is that kind of how you're looking at things? And I guess, you do have some capacity that's entering the industry in the next 6 to 12 months from debottlenecking as well as a new plant coming on maybe in a few years.

早安。謝謝讓我提問。希望各位都一切安好。我想——我主要的問題其實是關於這裡獲利能力能維持多久。你們指引第二季大約 1.8 億美元。你們在同業中有些公司對於回歸常態所需時間給了不同的區間，大概是三到六個月。你們也是這樣看嗎？另外，我想你們也看到未來 6 到 12 個月產業會有一些產能進來，來自去瓶頸（debottlenecking），以及可能在幾年後投產的新廠。

Just wondering if you're still feeling that caustic is going to be tight through that period or ultimately if we'll settle in a little bit of a oversupplied situation, and if we do kind of put all that together, does that mean that maybe we're kind of looking at a year that's kind of twice your first half or do you see upside to that?

想請教你們是否仍認為在那段期間燒鹼（caustic）會維持吃緊，或最終我們會落在稍微供過於求的狀態；如果把這些因素都放在一起，是否代表我們可能看到全年大概是上半年兩倍左右，還是你們認為還有上行空間？

Good morning, Arun. Yeah. Listen, I'm not going to get into the business of trying to speculate how long this is going to go. I did say earlier, and I do believe this is going to carry through the year, this year, at least the impacts, because costs are going to be higher.

早安，Arun。是的。聽著，我不打算去猜測這會持續多久。我先前確實說過，而且我也相信，至少這些影響會延續到今年全年，因為成本將會更高。

I think people are probably going to be expecting a higher security premium when you think about supply coming out of other regions that have been, frankly, dumping product into Europe's and the US's markets. I think we're seeing a premium for local supply. I think that's going to continue. So even if you see energy prices settle down, there are going to be longer term kind of hangover effects here that I do think are going to be beneficial for Olin. There's no doubt about that, but going back to what I said earlier, too, just around the setup for looking at coming out of the trough and supply-demand outlook for Chlor Alkali, is much more positive than I think maybe you're thinking right now, because I'm not sure you’ve got to factor in all the pluses and the minuses that have happened over the last year, 1.5 years, 2 years even, with assets that have been closed in Europe and the US and Latin America.

我認為當你想到供應來自其他地區——坦白說，那些地區一直在把產品傾銷到歐洲與美國市場——大家可能會期待更高的安全性溢價。我們看到本地供應有溢價，我認為這會持續。因此即便你看到能源價格回落，仍會有較長期的「宿醉效應」，我確實認為這將對 Olin 有利。這點毫無疑問。不過回到我先前也提到的，關於從谷底復甦以及氯鹼（Chlor Alkali）供需展望的布局，其實比你現在可能想的更正面，因為我不確定你是否已把過去一年、1.5 年、甚至 2 年間發生的所有正負因素都納入考量，包括歐洲、美國與拉丁美洲關閉的資產。

We've seen assets closed in Asia even. And so you look at that, plus there is limited, there's really very little new capacity coming online between now and the end of the decade. Again, I feel very, very bullish about the outlook for the markets that we're playing in and don't see any reason to have a different view on that.

我們甚至也看到亞洲有資產關閉。因此你把這些放在一起看，再加上從現在到本十年末新增產能有限——實際上幾乎沒有什麼新產能會上線。再次強調，我對我們所參與市場的前景非常、非常看多，也看不出有任何理由需要改變這個看法。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

John Roberts，Mizuho。

Thank you. For your export, EDC business, how are you thinking about the competition from China? Most of their coal-based capacity is inland and their coastal capacity is probably ethylene constrained. How do you think the dynamics there are going to play out in the next few months?

謝謝。關於你們出口的 EDC 業務，你們如何看待來自中國的競爭？他們多數以煤為基礎的產能在內陸，而沿海產能可能受乙烯供給限制。你認為未來幾個月那邊的動態會如何發展？

Good morning, John. It's a very good question. Obviously, one that's important for us, with the EDC business that we've got. We are going to see a step up in volume in the second quarter, and prices have moved up significantly from where they were. If you just think back to last year, the price really got overdone and was dropping far more quickly than it needed to in the environment that we were in.

早安，John。這是個非常好的問題。顯然，對我們而言也很重要，因為我們有 EDC 業務。第二季我們會看到出貨量上升，而價格也已從先前水準顯著回升。若你回想去年，價格其實被拉得過頭，在當時的環境下下跌速度遠比必要的更快。

Okay, we are where we are. Things have improved since then and have gotten to a healthier level in terms of prices that we see. The fact that you just mentioned that a lot of that capacity is inland in China, again, will increase the cost to get that EDC to market. Our costs have gone down. They've not gone up. So, we're able to serve the market more competitively at a better price.

好，現況就是如此。自那之後情況已改善，價格也回到我們認為較健康的水準。你剛提到中國很多產能在內陸，這會提高把 EDC 運到市場的成本。我們的成本是下降的，並沒有上升。因此，我們能以更具競爭力的成本、以更好的價格來服務市場。

And so that is going to be constructive for us as we look forward to the second quarter and the third quarter. And again, I think that's going to continue through the end of the year. Pricing is going to get back to a more, what I would consider, a more normal level for where we are in the supply-demand environment because things got overdone, and I mentioned this just a few minutes ago. The sanctioned oil that's sloshing around in the market, that now has been curtailed. The volume that's still there is going to be priced much higher than it was previously, and that is going to be beneficial to us.

因此，當我們展望第二季與第三季時，這對我們會是正向的。而且我認為這會一路延續到年底。價格將回到一個更——我會說——更正常的水準，符合目前供需環境，因為先前確實被拉得過頭，我在幾分鐘前也提到過。市場上四處流動的受制裁原油，現在已被抑制；仍在市場上的那部分量，價格會比先前高得多，而這將對我們有利。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

Vincent Andrews，Morgan Stanley。

Yesterday or the other day when Chemours reported, they indicated that they'd signed a agreement with you for the 2028-plus period instead of building the plant that they announced back in December of 2024. So could you help us understand the impact to you? Are those tons going to be more profitable, less profitable, about the same as what you're -- how you're monetizing them today?

昨天或前天 Chemours 公布財報時提到，他們與你們簽了一份涵蓋 2028 年以後期間的協議，而不是去興建他們在 2024 年 12 月宣布的那座工廠。你能否協助我們理解這對你們的影響？那些噸數的獲利性會更高、較低，還是大致與你們目前變現（monetizing）的方式差不多？

Good morning, Vincent. Thank you for joining us. Anytime that we can do a strategic partnership like we've done here with Chemours, and it is similar to Braskem, where we're working with an industry leader like Braskem, industry leader in vinyls in Brazil. You've got the industry leader in Chemours for titanium dioxide, and we've created something that is accretive for Olin. This is a long-term supply deal that will start in 2028.

早安，Vincent。謝謝你加入我們。只要我們能像這次與 Chemours 一樣做出策略性合作夥伴關係——這也類似於 Braskem，我們與像 Braskem 這樣的產業領導者合作；Braskem 是巴西乙烯基（vinyls）產業的領導者——而 Chemours 則是二氧化鈦的產業領導者——我們打造出對 Olin 具增益（accretive）的安排。這是一份長期供應協議，將於 2028 年開始。

These are the sorts of optionality that we want to put in place in our portfolio that gives us the ability through the cycle to generate stronger earnings, and certainly, we're very happy with the relationship with Chemours and looking forward to expanding that in 2028, but as you can imagine, we're not going to disclose any further details around that agreement, but it certainly is a win-win for both Olin and Chemours.

這些正是我們希望在投資組合中建立的選擇權（optionality），讓我們能在景氣循環中創造更強的獲利；當然，我們對與 Chemours 的關係非常滿意，也期待在 2028 年擴大合作。但如你所想，我們不會披露該協議的更多細節；不過這確實是 Olin 與 Chemours 的雙贏。

As there are no further questions, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ken Lane for closing comments.

由於沒有其他問題，問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Ken Lane 作結語。

Thank you very much. And listen, we appreciate everybody's time this morning. We appreciate your interest in Olin, and we look forward to giving you an update at our second quarter earnings call later this year. Thank you very much. Have a safe weekend.

非常感謝。也請聽我說，我們感謝各位今天早上的時間，感謝各位對 Olin 的關注；我們也期待在今年稍晚的第二季法說會上向各位更新。非常謝謝。祝各位週末平安。

Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的簡報。您現在可以中斷連線。