Flagstar Financial Inc (NYCB) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. This is Sal DiMartino, and thank you for joining the management team of New York Community for today's conference call. We apologize for the long wait time for the call, but we were having technical issues with our vendor.

大家，早安。我是 Sal DiMartino，感謝您加入紐約社區的管理團隊參加今天的電話會議。對於電話等待時間過長，我們深表歉意，但我們與供應商之間存在技術問題。

Today's discussion of the company's 2022 results will be led by President and CEO, Thomas Cangemi, along with the company's Chief Financial Officer, John Pinto; and Lee Smith, President of Mortgage.

今天對公司 2022 年業績的討論將由總裁兼首席執行官 Thomas Cangemi 和公司首席財務官 John Pinto 主持；和 Mortgage 總裁 Lee Smith。

Before the discussion begins, I'd like to remind you that certain comments made today by the management team of New York Community may include forward-looking statements within the meanings of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements we may make are subject to the safe harbor rules. Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and safe harbor language in today's press release and investor presentation for more information about risks and uncertainties which may affect us.

在討論開始之前，我想提醒您，紐約社區管理團隊今天發表的某些評論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。此類前瞻性陳述我們可能會受到安全港規則的約束。請查看今天的新聞稿和投資者介紹中的前瞻性免責聲明和安全港語言，以了解有關可能影響我們的風險和不確定性的更多信息。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Cangemi.

現在我想把電話轉給 Cangemi 先生。

Thank you, Sal. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. This morning, we're going to focus on 4 topics: the Flagstar acquisition, the decision to restructure the mortgage business and our operating performance, along with our outlook for the new Flagstar.

謝謝你，薩爾。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。今天上午，我們將重點關注 4 個主題：Flagstar 的收購、重組抵押貸款業務的決定和我們的經營業績，以及我們對新 Flagstar 的展望。

2022 was a watershed year for New York Community, culminating in our acquisition of Flagstar, our largest acquisition to date, which closed on December 1. As you have heard me say many times on these calls and in one-on-one meeting, this is a transformational acquisition for us, and we've already seen some of the benefits you've outlined when the transaction was first announced. The transaction to a dynamic commercial banking model is underway, with a more diversified balance sheet, which was evident at year-end as commercial loans represented 33% of total loans compared to 24% before the merger announcement.

2022 年是紐約社區的分水嶺，最終我們收購了 Flagstar，這是我們迄今為止最大的收購，該收購於 12 月 1 日完成。正如您在這些電話會議和一對一會議上多次聽到我所說的那樣，這對我們來說是一次轉型收購，我們已經看到您在首次宣布交易時概述的一些好處。向動態商業銀行模式的交易正在進行中，資產負債表更加多元化，這一點在年底時顯而易見，因為商業貸款佔總貸款的 33%，而合併公告前這一比例為 24%。

Legacy Flagstar brings a number of new lending-related businesses to the new company, both of which are C&I businesses. All of these are higher-margin businesses, and they are typically tied to floating interest rates. These new businesses include a nationally recognized mortgage warehouse business, where we currently rank #2 in the country based on $11.5 billion of commitments outstanding.

Legacy Flagstar 為新公司帶來了許多與貸款相關的新業務，這兩項業務都是 C&I 業務。所有這些都是利潤率較高的業務，並且通常與浮動利率掛鉤。這些新業務包括全國公認的抵押貸款倉庫業務，我們目前根據 115 億美元的未償承諾在該國排名第二。

Building Finance is another great business, where we do business with 70% of the top 100 builders nationwide. These spreads in this marketplace is approaching 400 basis points in that particular business.

Building Finance 是另一項偉大的業務，我們與全國前 100 名建築商中的 70% 有業務往來。該市場中的這些價差在該特定業務中接近 400 個基點。

In addition, Flagstar has a significant wholesale banking operation focusing on several verticals. These loans are conservatively underwritten and also generate significant fee income that legacy NYCB did not have. Going forward, we plan to allocate more capital to these higher-margin businesses.

此外，Flagstar 擁有重要的批發銀行業務，專注於多個垂直領域。這些貸款是保守承保的，並且還產生了傳統 NYCB 所沒有的可觀費用收入。展望未來，我們計劃向這些利潤率較高的業務分配更多資金。

The same is also true on the funding side. Legacy Flagstar contributes a significantly lower cost deposit base, including traditional retail deposits and a large amount of commercial balances related to mortgage businesses, including escrow balances.

資金方面也是如此。 Legacy Flagstar 貢獻了成本顯著降低的存款基礎，包括傳統零售存款和大量與抵押貸款業務相關的商業餘額，包括託管餘額。

Additionally, both companies have a very strong market share position within each of the respective core markets, which will aid in acquiring more deposits as we grow.

此外，兩家公司在各自的核心市場中都擁有非常強大的市場份額，這將有助於隨著我們的發展獲得更多存款。

The benefits of Flagstar's deposit base are already evident in the fourth quarter results, as noninterest-bearing deposits increased to 21% of total deposits compared to 9% prior to the merger announcement.

Flagstar 存款基礎的好處在第四季度的業績中已經很明顯，因為無息存款佔總存款的比例從合併公告前的 9% 增加到 21%。

Another important benefit is to our interest rate sensitivity. Our sensitivity to interest rate changes has improved materially due to the acquisition. As you will recall, legacy New York Community has historically been liability-sensitive, while legacy Flagstar was significantly asset-sensitive. On a combined basis, the new company will have a more balanced interest rate sensitivity position, and we will have more flexibility in managing our sensitivity to market rate changes.

另一個重要的好處是我們的利率敏感性。由於收購，我們對利率變化的敏感度有了實質性的提高。您會記得，傳統的紐約社區歷來對負債敏感，而傳統的 Flagstar 對資產非常敏感。綜合來看，新公司的利率敏感性狀況將更加平衡，我們將更加靈活地管理對市場利率變化的敏感性。

Given the nature of our new asset classes, paired with lower cost funding mix, the new company will be able to enjoy a stronger margin going forward. As for our mortgage business, we disclosed earlier today actions aim to optimize our mortgage platform. The substantial and aggressive shift in Fed monetary policy over the past year resulted in significantly higher mortgage rates. This rapid increase has cycled refinancing activity and also dampened purchase activity.

鑑於我們新資產類別的性質，再加上成本較低的融資組合，新公司未來將能夠享有更高的利潤率。至於我們的抵押貸款業務，我們今天早些時候披露了旨在優化抵押貸款平台的行動。過去一年美聯儲貨幣政策的重大和激進轉變導致抵押貸款利率大幅上升。這種快速增長已經循環再融資活動，也抑制了購買活動。

While legacy Flagstar was proactive throughout 2022 in rightsizing its mortgage business, the mortgage market is expected to remain challenged in 2023, with annual originations volume expected to decline by 25% year-over-year to $1.8 trillion after dropping 46% last year compared to 2021. Therefore, shortly after the transaction closed, we made the strategic decision to swiftly restructure the business, which occurred late last week.

儘管傳統的 Flagstar 在整個 2022 年都積極調整其抵押貸款業務，但抵押貸款市場預計到 2023 年仍將面臨挑戰，年發放量預計將同比下降 25% 至 1.8 萬億美元，而去年同比下降 46% 2021 年。因此，在交易完成後不久，我們做出了迅速重組業務的戰略決策，該決策於上週晚些時候發生。

To better reflect demand and a line to where our strength lie, our distributed retail channel will shift to a branch-footprint only model resulting in a 69% reduction in the number of retail home lending offices. Mortgage origination headcount is expected to decline to less than 800 FTEs compared to a high of 2,100 FTEs in 2021. Headcount reduction represents approximately 10% of total employees at the defined company's prerestructuring.

為了更好地反映需求和我們的優勢所在，我們的分佈式零售渠道將轉變為僅限分支機構的模式，從而使零售房屋貸款辦公室的數量減少 69%。與 2021 年 2,100 名 FTE 的高位相比，抵押貸款發放員工人數預計將下降至 800 名以下。裁員約佔所定義公司重組前員工總數的 10%。

These decisions are among the most difficult our senior leadership team has to make However, they are necessary to ensure the long-term success and viability of our mortgage business. These actions are expected to improve profitability in the mortgage business during the current down-cycle, while still allowing us to participate in the upside in the event the interest rate environment becomes more favorable.

這些決定是我們的高級領導團隊必須做出的最困難的決定之一，但是，它們對於確保我們抵押貸款業務的長期成功和生存能力是必要的。預計這些行動將在當前的下行週期中提高抵押貸款業務的盈利能力，同時在利率環境變得更加有利的情況下仍允許我們參與上行。

Despite these actions, we remain one of the top players in the mortgage business. We are a leading bank originator for the mortgages, the sixth largest subservicer and the second largest warehouse lender. In addition, we continue to lend in all 6 channels and remain committed to the correspondent broker business.

儘管採取了這些行動，我們仍然是抵押貸款業務的主要參與者之一。我們是抵押貸款的領先銀行發起人、第六大次級服務商和第二大倉庫貸款人。此外，我們繼續通過所有 6 個渠道提供貸款，並繼續致力於代理經紀業務。

Turning now to our 2022 operating performance. Despite the significant shift in Fed policy last year, 2022 was still another record year for the company. On a non-GAAP basis, we reported fully diluted EPS of $1.23 for full year 2022, relatively unchanged compared to the $1.24 we reported for 2021. Net income available to common stockholders, as adjusted, totaled $603 million for full year 2022 compared to $585 million in 2021. Our net income in 2021 was a record at that time, and in 2022, we broke that record.

現在轉向我們 2022 年的經營業績。儘管美聯儲去年的政策發生了重大轉變，但 2022 年對該公司來說仍是創紀錄的一年。在非 GAAP 基礎上，我們報告 2022 年全年的完全稀釋每股收益為 1.23 美元，與我們報告的 2021 年的 1.24 美元相比基本沒有變化。經調整後，普通股股東可獲得的淨收入在 2022 年全年總計 6.03 億美元，而 585 美元百萬在 2021 年。我們 2021 年的淨收入當時是創紀錄的，而在 2022 年，我們打破了這一記錄。

While our financials were impacted by 1 month of combined results, legacy New York Community performed extremely well with strong organic growth in loans and deposits. Multifamily loans increased $3.5 billion or 10% to $38.1 billion compared to 2021, with virtually all of the growth coming organically. Specialty Finance loans rose $912 million or 26% during the year to $4.4 billion.

雖然我們的財務狀況受到 1 個月合併結果的影響，但傳統的紐約社區表現非常出色，貸款和存款的有機增長強勁。與 2021 年相比，多戶家庭貸款增加了 35 億美元或 10%，達到 381 億美元，幾乎所有增長都是有機增長。專業融資貸款在這一年中增加了 9.12 億美元或 26%，達到 44 億美元。

At the same time, organic deposit growth was $7.6 billion, up 22%. This includes about $3 billion in growth during the fourth quarter related to our government banking as a service business.

與此同時，存款有機增長 76 億美元，增長 22%。這包括與我們的政府銀行即服務業務相關的第四季度約 30 億美元的增長。

Our fourth quarter net interest margin improved 6 basis points to 2.28% compared to the prior quarter. Excluding the impact from prepayment income, the fourth quarter margin was 2.24%, up 9 basis points compared to the previous quarter, which is better than our original guidance.

與上一季度相比，我們第四季度的淨息差提高了 6 個基點，達到 2.28%。剔除預付款收入的影響，第四季度利潤率為 2.24%，較上一季度上升 9 個基點，好於我們最初的指引。

Our credit quality remains -- metric remain solid, and reflect the strong credit culture of both legacy organizations. NPAs to total assets equaled 17 basis points, while NPLs to total loans were 20 basis points, continuing to rank us among the best in the industry. These metrics are proof positive that our conservative underwriting standards have served us well over various business cycles. This one is a high-quality balance sheet should serve us well in the event of a downturn in the economy.

我們的信用質量保持不變——指標保持穩定，反映了兩個遺留組織強大的信用文化。不良資產佔總資產的比例為 17 個基點，不良貸款佔貸款總額的比例為 20 個基點，繼續位居行業前列。這些指標證明我們保守的承保標准在各種商業周期中為我們提供了良好的服務。這是一份高質量的資產負債表，在經濟不景氣的情況下應該能很好地為我們服務。

As for real estate trends in our primary New York City market, the residential rental market remains healthy despite some moderation in the effective median rent due to weaker performance in the luxury market, while our bread and butter nonluxury rent regulation niche remains very strong.

至於我們紐約市主要市場的房地產趨勢，儘管由於豪宅市場表現疲軟導致有效租金中位數有所放緩，但住宅租賃市場仍然健康，而我們的麵包和黃油非豪宅租金監管利基市場仍然非常強勁。

Manhattan multimedia rents in November rose nearly 20% year-over-year to 4,033, up month-over-month following 3 straight months of decline and up -- and was up 15.2% above the pre-pandemic levels. On the office front, Manhattan direct asking rents in the fourth quarter decreased 0.6% from the third quarter to $74.29 per square foot, while the office availability rate was up 18.7% or 30 basis points. Manhattan retail average asking rents recorded a 2.2% uptick quarter-over-quarter to $607 per square foot, the first increase since the fourth quarter of 2016 due to a resurgence in travel and tourism and consumer demand.

11 月曼哈頓多媒體租金同比上漲近 20% 至 4,033，在連續 3 個月下跌和上漲後環比上漲——比大流行前水平上漲 15.2%。在寫字樓方面，第四季度曼哈頓直接要價租金比第三季度下降 0.6% 至每平方英尺 74.29 美元，而寫字樓空置率上升 18.7% 或 30 個基點。曼哈頓零售平均租金要價環比上漲 2.2% 至每平方英尺 607 美元，這是自 2016 年第四季度以來的首次上漲，原因是旅遊業和消費者需求復蘇。

Also, as of year-end, our capital ratios remain very strong. Accordingly, last week, our Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per share on the company's common stock. The dividend is payable on February 16 to common shareholders record of February 6 based on last night's closing prices reflects a dividend yield of approximately 7%.

此外，截至年底，我們的資本比率仍然非常強勁。因此，上週，我們的董事會宣布派發公司普通股每股 0.17 美元的季度現金股息。根據昨晚的收盤價，股息將於 2 月 16 日支付給 2 月 6 日的普通股股東，股息收益率約為 7%。

Looking forward to 2023. This is what you can expect from the new company throughout the year and into 2024.

展望 2023 年。這是您對新公司全年和 2024 年的期望。

First, we're going to have one brand across the combined organization. The divisional bank concept has worked well for legacy NYCB, but we're mostly in the New York City metro region. Now that we are one of the largest regional banks in the country with 395 branches in 9 states, along with a national presence in several businesses, we are confident that a unified brand will position us to thrive.

首先，我們將在合併後的組織中擁有一個品牌。分區銀行概念對傳統的 NYCB 運作良好，但我們主要位於紐約市都會區。現在我們是美國最大的區域性銀行之一，在 9 個州擁有 395 家分行，並且在全國開展多項業務，我們相信統一的品牌將使我們蓬勃發展。

We will have 1 bank, 1 brand, 1 culture. A new brand will be Flagstar. While the Flagstar name will remain, the associated brand, look feel, logo, purpose and what the name stance will change. We plan to officially roll out the new logo and brand publicly in late 2023, but it will not be fully operational and used externally until systems conversion, which is scheduled to occur during the first quarter of 2024.

我們將擁有1家銀行、1個品牌、1種文化。一個新品牌將是 Flagstar。雖然 Flagstar 名稱將保留，但相關品牌、外觀、徽標、用途以及名稱立場將發生變化。我們計劃在 2023 年底正式公開推出新徽標和品牌，但要到系統轉換（計劃於 2024 年第一季度進行）之前，它才能全面運行和外部使用。

As for guidance, given the current outlook, we expect average loan growth of 5%, first quarter NIM to expand from fourth quarter levels to a range of 2.55% to 2.65%, including prepayments, which are expected to have less of an impact on the NIM going forward. First quarter gain on sale of mortgage loans of $18 million to $22 million; full year noninterest expense range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, excluding merger-related expenses and intangible asset amortization; and a full year tax rate of approximately 25.5%.

至於指導，鑑於目前的前景，我們預計第一季度 NIM 的平均貸款增長率為 5%，將從第四季度的水平擴大到 2.55% 至 2.65%，包括預付款，預計對NIM 向前發展。第一季度出售抵押貸款收益為 1800 萬至 2200 萬美元；全年非利息支出範圍為 13 億美元至 14 億美元，不包括與合併相關的費用和無形資產攤銷；全年稅率約為 25.5%。

Finally, I would like to send a big shout out to all of our employees at both banks, none of what we have accomplished so far would have been possible without their patient support and hard work. Their commitment to our customers and borrowers over the past several years has truly been remarkable. My sincere thanks for them all.

最後，我想向我們兩家銀行的所有員工致以熱烈的掌聲，我們今天取得的成就離不開他們的耐心支持和辛勤工作。他們在過去幾年中對我們的客戶和借款人的承諾確實非常出色。我衷心感謝他們所有人。

With that, we would be happy to answer any questions you may have. We will do our very best to get to all of you within the time remaining. But if we don't, please feel free to call us later today. Operator, please open the line for questions.

這樣，我們很樂意回答您的任何問題。我們將盡最大努力在剩餘時間內與大家取得聯繫。但如果我們不這樣做，請隨時在今天晚些時候給我們打電話。接線員，請打開問題線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question has come from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Congrats on closing the deal. I guess maybe the first question, if I heard you correctly, Tom, I think you mentioned systems conversion not until first quarter of '24. Sounds a bit longer than usual. Just wondering if there are any reasons why it's going to take that long to move -- due the systems conversion? And secondly, just remind us in terms of the cost savings from the franchise and where you think the expense base resets once you have all the expense savings tied to the deal? Maybe as we think about post conversion, what it looks like.

恭喜完成交易。我想也許是第一個問題，如果我沒聽錯的話，湯姆，我想你直到 24 年第一季度才提到系統轉換。聽起來比平時長一點。只是想知道是否有任何原因導致移動需要那麼長時間——由於系統轉換？其次，請提醒我們特許經營的成本節省，以及一旦您擁有與交易相關的所有費用節省，您認為費用基礎會重置在哪裡？也許當我們考慮轉換後時，它看起來像什麼。

All right. Let's start with the latter question for us. And by the way, we apologize for the wrong delay this morning. That was unfortunate, but we do apologize for that. I should have talked about the overall expense run rate going forward. We gave out guidance level, $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion for 2023. Bear in mind, we continue to put these companies together through synergies. When we first announced the transaction, we estimated about $125 million of merger-related cost benefits, exclusive of the mortgage business, specifically. So we kind of called that out when we looked at the combined operation. So we're assuming that.

好的。讓我們從後一個問題開始。順便說一句，我們為今天早上的錯誤延誤道歉。那很不幸，但我們為此深表歉意。我應該談談未來的整體費用運行率。我們給出了 2023 年 13 億至 14 億美元的指導水平。請記住，我們將繼續通過協同作用將這些公司整合在一起。當我們首次宣布交易時，我們估計與合併相關的成本收益約為 1.25 億美元，具體而言，不包括抵押貸款業務。因此，當我們查看合併操作時，我們有點把它說出來了。所以我們假設。

Obviously, we're restructuring mortgage going into 2023. That is taking place as we speak. So in addition to that, we also have the ongoing continuation of synergies throughout 2023, and also a substantial benefit, most likely in the first quarter of 2024, going back to the actual system conversion, which we have planned. This is a full-blown conversion of all systems. So this is going to be a substantial undertaking for the bank. We feel very confident that's the right appropriate time frame, but it's going to be our largest conversion. And a lot of, I'll call it, upgrade systems that we're getting on a combined basis will be part of that conversion. So we're taking this process, obviously, very seriously. We want to make sure that we have the appropriate time to integrate.

顯然，我們正在對 2023 年的抵押貸款進行重組。就在我們說話的時候，這正在發生。因此，除此之外，我們還將在整個 2023 年繼續保持協同效應，並且很可能在 2024 年第一季度獲得實質性收益，回到我們計劃的實際系統轉換。這是所有系統的全面轉換。因此，這對銀行來說將是一項艱鉅的任務。我們非常有信心這是合適的時間框架，但這將是我們最大的轉換。很多，我稱之為，我們在合併的基礎上獲得的升級系統將成為該轉換的一部分。所以我們顯然非常認真地對待這個過程。我們要確保我們有適當的時間進行整合。

So clearly, first quarter of 2024 is where we're targeting. I would not expect that to become any earlier than that. So first quarter of 2024 is the date. But a lot of work has been done as far as choices on systems, a substantial amount of decision-making has gone into what's best for the customer. And we're changing a lot on the NYCB side to upgrade ourselves to be more in the regional bank space into other technology system that we don't currently have. So it goes all into that upgrade. So we're super excited about the opportunity, but it's going to take a little bit of time. And at the same time, I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're also going to be rebranding into the first quarter as well.

很明顯，2024 年第一季度是我們的目標。我不希望那會比那更早。所以日期是 2024 年第一季度。但是就係統的選擇而言，已經做了很多工作，大量的決策已經進入最適合客戶的範圍。我們在 NYCB 方面進行了很多改變，以將自己升級為更多地在區域銀行領域進入我們目前沒有的其他技術系統。所以它全部用於升級。所以我們對這個機會感到非常興奮，但這需要一點時間。同時，我在準備好的發言中提到，我們也將在第一季度進行品牌重塑。

So going back to the cost structure, I feel highly confident that, that range is very reasonable. But we feel that, historically, the company has been an integrated institutions. We have a great road map here. We spent a lot of time getting to know each other. At the same time, we're building an institution that's going to be very diverse. And in our run rate has some build-out of additional, we'll call, cost centers that are going to drive revenue opportunities on a combined basis. And I think that range is a reasonable range given that we are restructuring mortgage on a combined basis. So I think the range that we gave you, $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion. Hopefully, we'll come in towards the front end of the range, but we feel pretty confident about that.

所以回到成本結構，我非常有信心，這個範圍是非常合理的。但我們覺得，從歷史上看，公司一直是一個綜合性機構。我們這裡有一個很棒的路線圖。我們花了很多時間來了解彼此。與此同時，我們正在建設一個非常多元化的機構。在我們的運行率中有一些額外的構建，我們稱之為成本中心，這些成本中心將在綜合基礎上推動收入機會。我認為這個範圍是一個合理的範圍，因為我們正在合併重組抵押貸款。所以我認為我們給你的範圍是 13 億美元到 14 億美元。希望我們會進入該範圍的前端，但我們對此非常有信心。

I guess on the -- given all the investments you're making, and I think it all makes sense, is it fair to assume like that's a steady state expelling? Like you might get some savings towards the systems conversion next year, but then you're also investing in the franchise?

我想——考慮到你所做的所有投資，我認為這一切都是有道理的，假設這是一個穩態驅逐是否公平？就像你可能會在明年的系統轉換中節省一些錢，但你也在投資特許經營權？

That's a fair statement, Ebrahim. We didn't give out 2024 guidance, but you do have a lot of the system conversion -- will result in significant overlap on technology as well as in benefits of the cost. Maybe John, if you want to add some more color to that.

這是一個公平的聲明，易卜拉欣。我們沒有給出 2024 年的指導，但你確實有很多系統轉換——這將導致技術上的重大重疊以及成本效益。也許約翰，如果你想為它添加更多顏色。

Yes, I think that's right. You'll see some of those, that $125 million in savings, come through over the next couple of months as part of the process we're going through. And then there'll be more, as Tom just mentioned, that will come once the systems conversion is done in Q1 of 2024. -- so I think Abraham, you're right, that makes a lot of sense as to -- where we can kind of see a steady state going forward, at least in '23 d '24.

是的，我認為這是對的。作為我們正在經歷的過程的一部分，您會在接下來的幾個月中看到其中的一些，即 1.25 億美元的節省。然後會有更多，正如湯姆剛才提到的，一旦系統轉換在 2024 年第一季度完成後就會出現。 - 所以我認為亞伯拉罕，你是對的，這很有意義 - 哪裡我們可以看到一種穩定的狀態向前發展，至少在 23 到 24 年是這樣。

So Ebrahim, just to go back to the concept of the conversion. This is really a transformational transaction for the bank. We said that all along. We're moving towards a commercial banking model. And with that commercial banking model, there are a lot of technology tools that we are going to implement as part of the combined NewCo. That's what's pushing out the diversion maybe a quarter or 2, and that's why we feel very confident that the date makes sense for us. This is not the historical NYCB thrift model, we are going to a commercial banking model with unique technology tools that are consistent with regional banks of our size.

所以 Ebrahim，回到轉換的概念。這對銀行來說確實是一次轉型交易。我們一直這麼說。我們正在走向商業銀行模式。通過這種商業銀行模式，我們將作為合併後的新公司的一部分實施許多技術工具。這就是將轉移時間推遲四分之一或兩個的原因，這就是為什麼我們非常有信心這個日期對我們有意義。這不是歷史上的 NYCB 節儉模式，我們將採用與我們規模的區域性銀行一致的獨特技術工具的商業銀行模式。

Understood. That's helpful. And just on a separate question. You gave the first quarter NIM guide. How do we think about the net interest margin on the 2 scenarios in a world where rates just stay higher for longer, how do you think the NIM plays out? And then on the -- if rates get cut, do you still expect the balance sheet to be liability sensitive and benefit from -- the NIM benefiting from rate cuts?

明白了。這很有幫助。只是在一個單獨的問題上。你給出了第一季度的 NIM 指南。在利率保持較高時間更長的世界中，我們如何看待這兩種情況下的淨息差，您認為 NIM 如何發揮作用？然後 - 如果降息，您是否仍然期望資產負債表對負債敏感並從中受益 - NIM 從降息中受益？

I'll start the conversation, I'm going to defer to John. But big picture, we're assuming that we're going to have probably 2 more hikes coming in the short term and probably a pause and probably -- looking at the forward curve, an adjustment towards November is for the first cut. That's really much playing through the forward curve. But the reality is that where we stand today on positioning, we're probably -- flexible probably -- maybe 4%, 5%-ish liability senitive going into this most likely par situation in Q1. We have the capacity to move plus or minus 5% very easily.

我會開始談話，我會聽從 John 的意見。但從大局來看，我們假設短期內可能還會有 2 次加息，可能會暫停，而且可能——看看遠期曲線，11 月的調整是為了第一次降息。通過遠期曲線，這真的很重要。但現實是，我們今天在定位方面的立場，我們可能 - 可能是靈活的 - 可能是 4%，5% 左右的責任敏感度進入第一季度這種最有可能的平價情況。我們有能力很容易地移動正負 5%。

So right now, just by putting the balance sheet together, without any restructuring, without any sales of assets, we're sitting here just probably slightly liability sensitive and we have the ability to pivot very quickly. So maybe, John, if you want to add some more color towards the sensitivity on the market rates.

所以現在，只要把資產負債表放在一起，沒有任何重組，沒有任何資產出售，我們坐在這裡可能只是對負債略微敏感，我們有能力非常迅速地進行調整。所以也許，約翰，如果你想為市場利率的敏感性添加更多顏色。

Yes. And just to highlight what Tom said, now that we're not as significantly liability-sensitive as NYCB has been historically, it just gives us the opportunity to be able to manage towards a neutral-asset base depending on market conditions. So slightly liability sensitive now. We are forecasting the 2 rate hikes in February and March, which is really what's impacting the margin in 2023. That cut at the end of the year really doesn't have much of an impact in the 2023 guide.

是的。只是為了強調湯姆所說的，現在我們不像 NYCB 歷史上那樣對負債敏感，它只是讓我們有機會能夠根據市場條件管理中性資產基礎。現在對責任有點敏感了。我們預測 2 月和 3 月將加息 2 次，這確實會影響 2023 年的利潤率。年底的降息對 2023 年指南確實沒有太大影響。

And Tom, you mentioned the restructuring of the balance sheet, like -- should we be expecting any meaningful restructuring once there's clarity on the path of Fed interest rates?

湯姆，你提到了資產負債表的重組，比如——一旦美聯儲利率路徑明確，我們是否應該期待任何有意義的重組？

Look, I think the reality is that we put the company together at year-end. We have an opportunity to look at some of the assets that, in particular, mortgage rate that we can structure into a opportunity for liquidity. And liquidity is expensive right now. So if we go into cash or short-term securities, we're not going at 0 anymore. It's around approaching close to 5%, assuming 2 more rate increases. So we have flexibility here. We believe that eventually, when the securitization markets open and we have lots of liquidity we can pour through, given the assets that were acquired through the fact that transaction, some of those resi portfolios and other asset classes. But the reality is it goes back to the opportunity to really deploy capital into higher-margin businesses.

看，我認為現實是我們在年底將公司整合在一起。我們有機會研究一些資產，特別是我們可以構建為流動性機會的抵押貸款利率。現在流動性很昂貴。因此，如果我們進入現金或短期證券，我們將不再處於 0。假設再加息 2 次，它大約接近 5%。所以我們在這裡有靈活性。我們相信，最終，當證券化市場開放時，考慮到通過交易獲得的資產、其中一些 resi 投資組合和其他資產類別，我們可以傾注大量流動性。但現實是，它可以追溯到將資本真正部署到利潤率更高的業務中的機會。

We're being very cautious in respect to pricing. We have a very interesting opportunity in front of us regarding yields. And if you think about our multifamily business, they're in -- averaging in the 3s and the market is closer to 6 right now. We're not seeing a lot of refinance active. We're not seeing a lot of purchase activity, but we are seeing is that we still have about $8 billion over the next few years, repricing, mandatory repricing. And they have to make a decision, and that market is a much higher rate environment.

我們在定價方面非常謹慎。關於收益率，我們面前有一個非常有趣的機會。而且，如果您考慮我們的多戶家庭業務，他們的平均收入為 3 美元，而市場目前接近 6 美元。我們沒有看到很多再融資活動。我們沒有看到很多購買活動，但我們看到未來幾年我們仍有大約 80 億美元，重新定價，強制重新定價。他們必須做出決定，那個市場是一個更高利率的環境。

Assuming the Fed holds this for longer, I think our customers will have to just go into a different option, which will be a higher interest rate to do nothing. So we'll manage through that very carefully. We're seeing about half of those loans go right into our new product, which is a sell for product, which is a floating rate product, which is great for interest rate risk, but we're endorsing that as a company. But we feel very confident that we can move the portfolio to a higher-yielding asset class. At the same time, be very focused on the best yielding opportunities in the marketplace because we have diversification.

假設美聯儲持有它的時間更長，我認為我們的客戶將不得不選擇不同的選擇，這將是更高的利率而無所作為。所以我們會非常謹慎地解決這個問題。我們看到這些貸款中大約有一半直接用於我們的新產品，這是一種出售產品，這是一種浮動利率產品，這對利率風險很有幫助，但我們作為一家公司認可這一點。但我們非常有信心可以將投資組合轉移到收益更高的資產類別。同時，要非常關注市場上收益最好的機會，因為我們有多元化。

Now this bank -- now has a very well diverse vertical opportunity. And we're going to make sure that we maximize our capital spend to ensure better margins going forward. Starting the year off at a much stronger margin with the opportunity to redeploy capital into higher-margin businesses is an attractive position to be in.

現在這家銀行 - 現在擁有非常多樣化的垂直機會。我們將確保最大限度地提高資本支出，以確保未來獲得更高的利潤率。以更高的利潤率開始新的一年，並有機會將資本重新部署到利潤率更高的業務中，這是一個有吸引力的位置。

Our next questions come from the line of Mark Fitzgibbon with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Fitzgibbon 與 Piper Sandler 的對話。

Tom -- Tommy, I wonder if you could help us think about total fee income in, say, the first quarter. I know it's volatile given mortgage bumpiness, but help us think about the combined company's fee income capabilities.

湯姆 - 湯米，我想知道你是否可以幫助我們考慮第一季度的總費用收入。我知道鑑於抵押貸款的顛簸，它是不穩定的，但幫助我們考慮合併後公司的費用收入能力。

So look, we have a lot of moving parts here that's new to the company, in particular the capital markets activity. I think that, that's going to be -- again, it's not modeled in, it's not anticipated as part of the synergies of the merger, benefits of the merger. But we think that now that we have a capital markets division that's going to look at options for our customer base to put on derivative synthetic positions to hedge their loan products. I think that's going to be a great benefit to the bank.

所以看，我們這裡有很多對公司來說是新的活動部分，特別是資本市場活動。我認為，這將是——再一次，它沒有被建模，它沒有被預期為合併協同效應的一部分，合併的好處。但我們認為，現在我們有一個資本市場部門，該部門將為我們的客戶群尋找選擇，以建立衍生合成頭寸來對沖他們的貸款產品。我認為這將對銀行大有裨益。

In addition to that, we could also be creative for our multifamily customers as well to offer those similar products. And we're not going to put on long duration of paper without any synthetic position, which drives into fee income. At the same time, I'm going to defer to Lee Smith, because he's obviously running the mortgage business, and that's always going to be a very interesting opportunity if the mortgage business does start to pick up. But reality is that we're starting at probably the low points. So we're hoping it doesn't get much worse than this, but we're starting at the low. So maybe Lee Smith could add some color on fee income between servicing and mortgage production. Lee?

除此之外，我們還可以為我們的多戶家庭客戶提供創意，並提供類似的產品。而且我們不會在沒有任何合成頭寸的情況下長期持有紙質文件，這會增加費用收入。與此同時，我要聽從 Lee Smith 的意見，因為他顯然在經營抵押貸款業務，如果抵押貸款業務開始好轉，那將永遠是一個非常有趣的機會。但現實是我們可能從低點開始。所以我們希望它不會比這更糟，但我們是從低點開始的。因此，也許李·史密斯可以在服務和抵押生產之間的費用收入上增加一些色彩。李?

Yes. Thanks, Tom. And we provided this in the guidance. So we're guiding for Q1 gain on loan sale to be between $18 million and $22 million. And then the net return on the MSR asset is -- we're guiding 8% to 10%. I think we'll be at the top end of that range. So if you combine those 2 numbers, we're sort of in the $45 million, $50 million range from a fee income point of view on the mortgage origination side.

是的。謝謝，湯姆。我們在指南中提供了這一點。因此，我們指導第一季度貸款銷售收益在 1800 萬美元至 2200 萬美元之間。然後 MSR 資產的淨回報率是——我們指導 8% 到 10%。我認為我們將處於該範圍的頂端。因此，如果您將這兩個數字結合起來，從抵押貸款發起方的費用收入角度來看，我們的收入大約在 4500 萬美元到 5000 萬美元之間。

And then we've obviously got loan admin income on the servicing side, given our significant subservicing business. Now from a GAAP accounting point of view, the reason offset as it relates to the interest we pay on escrows, which should really be up in the net interest income line, and so we're going to get a benefit from that. Even though you don't quite see from a GAAP point of view, when we break out the servicing P&L, you do see that fee income given the significant subservicing business we have.

然後，鑑於我們的重要服務業務，我們顯然在服務方面獲得了貸款管理收入。現在從 GAAP 會計的角度來看，抵消的原因與我們支付的託管利息有關，這實際上應該在淨利息收入線中，所以我們將從中受益。儘管從 GAAP 的角度來看你不太清楚，但當我們打破服務損益表時，你確實看到了收費收入，因為我們擁有大量的服務業務。

Yes. So with that being said, just to add on to Lee's commentary, assuming there is a Fed pause and it good moves the other way, say, towards the end of this year, that will also generate higher fee income because. Now the cost of that liability becomes much lower as we manage that servicing portfolio.

是的。因此，話雖這麼說，只是為了補充 Lee 的評論，假設美聯儲暫停並採取相反的方式，比如在今年年底，這也將產生更高的費用收入，因為。現在，隨著我們管理該服務組合，該責任的成本變得低得多。

Okay. Great. And then, Tommy, could you share with us sort of the timing and cost associated with rebranding?

好的。偉大的。然後，湯米，你能和我們分享一下與品牌重塑相關的時間和成本嗎？

So we're not going to throw a cost number out there, it's ongoing. We feel very comfortable that we've done a ton of work over the past 2 years now on really setting the NewCo, which is going to be the new Flagstar. A lot of spend has been already taken place. As far as the branding efforts for the future, move towards '24 than '23, I'd say where the dollar outlay will come in. But where we stand right now money has been spent on setting up the brand itself, our vision, our mission, obviously our position in the marketplace. And obviously, there'll be new signage to all of the 395 locations. It's all going to be, as we said, one cohesive brand and one culture, one name, and that will start towards the back end of 2023 and with maybe some marketing dollars going into 2024 run rate.

所以我們不會在那裡拋出一個成本數字，它正在進行中。我們感到非常欣慰的是，我們在過去 2 年中為真正設置 NewCo 做了大量工作，這將成為新的 Flagstar。已經發生了很多支出。至於未來的品牌推廣工作，向 24 年而不是 23 年邁進，我想說的是美元支出的來源。但我們現在所處的位置，錢已經花在建立品牌本身，我們的願景上，我們的使命，顯然是我們在市場上的地位。顯然，所有 395 個地點都會有新的標牌。正如我們所說，這一切都將成為一個有凝聚力的品牌和一種文化，一個名字，這將在 2023 年底開始，並且可能會有一些營銷資金進入 2024 年的運行率。

And last question I had for you was on the loan-to-deposit ratio. Is there a level at which you'd sort of cap that wouldn't exceed?

我要問你的最後一個問題是關於貸存比。有沒有一個你不會超過的上限水平？

So Mark, I would say big picture is that our passion, as you can see over the past few years, we've done a significant shift in how we're funding the balance sheet, right? There's been a lot more deposit growth. We're looking at alternative solutions to fund our business. That's going to be part of our DNA going forward. We are focusing on funding this balance sheet very differently than it was historically. We want to get away from our dependency on nontraditional funding. We believe that various mortgage as a service businesses, the government as a service business are focused that and really trying to take the embedded nature of mortgage and go after the clientele as a $90 billion organization, could put us in a very unique position to gather more deposits.

所以馬克，我想說大局是我們的熱情，正如你在過去幾年中看到的那樣，我們在為資產負債表提供資金的方式上發生了重大轉變，對吧？存款增長更多。我們正在尋找替代解決方案來為我們的業務提供資金。這將成為我們未來 DNA 的一部分。我們專注於為這個資產負債表提供資金，這與以往截然不同。我們希望擺脫對非傳統資金的依賴。我們相信，各種抵押貸款即服務業務、政府即服務業務都專注於此，並且真正嘗試利用抵押貸款的內在本質並作為一個價值 900 億美元的組織來追逐客戶，這可以使我們處於一個非常獨特的位置來聚集更多的存款。

We were very successful a few years back when we started the mandatory initiative of "If we're going to lend you money, we need to have a deposit relationship. " That's going to be the culture going forward. So our passion here is to be less funded wholesale, be funded more traditional in nature and we're doing -- and we're looking at all avenues to bring in a mix of funding that light is better so we can have a much better cost of fund and better stability on our funding mix. If you think about the magnitude of our wholesale book of liabilities, if you replace that with, we'll call it, true core deposits, it's a game changer for multiple. So the goal here is to be less dependent on mortgage, less dependent on wholesale and focus on multiple expansion over time.

幾年前我們非常成功，當時我們啟動了“如果我們要藉錢給你，我們需要有存款關係”的強制性倡議。這將成為未來的文化。因此，我們在這裡的熱情是減少批發資金，在本質上獲得更多傳統資金，我們正在做——我們正在尋找所有途徑來引入光線更好的資金組合，這樣我們就可以擁有更好的資金成本和更好的資金組合穩定性。如果您考慮一下我們的批發負債賬簿的規模，如果您將其替換為我們稱之為真正的核心存款，它會改變多個遊戲規則。因此，這裡的目標是減少對抵押貸款的依賴，減少對批發的依賴，並專注於隨著時間的推移進行多次擴張。

And that's our passion. That's our business model every day. It's within our DNA. It's not going to happen overnight. And we said that, when I took over as CEO, this is culturally where we're going, and we're making that long-term vision of trying to change the dynamic of the traditional thrift model towards a commercial banking model.

這就是我們的熱情。這就是我們每天的商業模式。它在我們的 DNA 中。這不會在一夜之間發生。我們說過，當我接任首席執行官時，這就是我們的文化方向，我們正在製定長期願景，試圖將傳統節儉模式的動態轉變為商業銀行模式。

Our next question has come from the line of Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Compass Point 的 Dave Rochester。

And congrats on the deal.

並祝賀這筆交易。

Been a long time, David, but we're very pleased to be here.

很長一段時間了，大衛，但我們很高興來到這裡。

Yes. Yes, absolutely. Go see it. Just on the puttable advances you guys have, is it fair to say that the margin result this quarter and the guide for next quarter includes the repricing of all the like $1 billion or so of those advances that you have at this point? So you're not really expecting a cliff repricing of that in 2Q or beyond?

是的。是的，一點沒錯。去看看吧。就你們所擁有的可回售預付款而言，可以公平地說本季度的保證金結果和下一季度的指南包括對你們目前所擁有的大約 10 億美元的預付款進行重新定價嗎？所以你真的不希望在第二季度或以後出現懸崖式重新定價嗎？

Yes. If you look at -- I mean, we do have a lot of borrowings coming due in 2023. So when you look at that amount, we have probably just under $7 billion coming due in 2020 in the first quarter of '23. And that -- yes, and that's the that's in the guidance. The cost of that is in the $330 million range, $340 million range. So there'll be a bit of a lift there, but nothing significant. There are puttable on the books, as you mentioned, but they're spread out on what their lockout dates are. So we don't expect to have that, the cliff issue that we had in the third and the fourth quarter of 2022.

是的。如果你看——我的意思是，我們確實有很多藉款將在 2023 年到期。所以當你看這個數額時，我們可能有不到 70 億美元將在 2020 年第一季度到期。那——是的，這就是指南中的內容。其成本在 3.3 億美元左右，3.4 億美元左右。所以那裡會有一點提升，但沒什麼大不了的。正如您所提到的，賬簿上有可推銷的，但它們的鎖定日期是分散的。因此，我們預計不會出現我們在 2022 年第三和第四季度遇到的懸崖問題。

Dave, I would just say, to John's point, we want to have some flexibility to go into '23, depending on our balance sheet renewability, depending where rates start to normalize here and we have an opportunity to really look at the assets that we've acquired and see what assets we're going to hold. There has been no restructuring as of year-end. We priced -- we looked at the marketplace. We believe when the marketplace becomes more opportunistic for us to think about maybe reshipping our proceeds into maybe a debt reduction or a debt restructure, that's always on the table, we'll look at what makes sense in the marketplace.

戴夫，我只想說，對於約翰的觀點，我們希望有一些靈活性進入 23 年，這取決於我們的資產負債表的可更新性，取決於利率在這裡開始正常化的位置，我們有機會真正審視我們的資產收購併查看我們將持有哪些資產。截至年末未發生重組。我們定價——我們觀察了市場。我們相信，當市場變得更加機會主義時，我們可以考慮將我們的收益重新分配到債務減少或債務重組中，這總是擺在桌面上，我們將看看在市場上什麼是有意義的。

But clearly, having the optionality is going to be important, especially with most likely a pause coming. And perhaps at the back end of the curve continues to be steep like this, we may have some opportunity to take on some cheaper funding, at the same time keep some money relatively short to pay down some debt. Because obviously, the short-term money is very expensive right now. So we have that optionality on the table.

但顯然，擁有選擇性將很重要，尤其是在很可能出現暫停的情況下。也許在曲線的後端繼續像這樣陡峭，我們可能有機會接受一些更便宜的資金，同時保持一些相對較短的資金來償還一些債務。因為顯然，短期資金現在非常昂貴。所以我們在桌面上有這種選擇權。

Yes. To your point on reducing the debt. Just on the deposit side, you guys have obviously been working on a number of deposit initiatives that you talked about earlier and in prior calls. But I was just wondering if you can size the new opportunities that you now have post the deal close? I know you talked about the warehouse customer deposits that you could go after previously once you close the deal, if you could just kind of size that, how big that opportunity is at this point and then hit on any other areas that you could point to.

是的。關於減少債務的觀點。就存款方面而言，你們顯然一直在致力於你們之前和之前的電話中談到的一些存款計劃。但我只是想知道您是否可以評估交易完成後您現在擁有的新機會？我知道你談到過一旦你完成交易你可以追求的倉庫客戶存款，如果你能確定這個規模，這個機會在這一點上有多大，然後找到你可以指出的任何其他領域.

I always said when we announced the transaction, I envisioned the embedded nature of just mortgage alone is a $10 billion opportunity. I felt highly confident that with Lee Smith's business regarding, the escrow business, the loans that we service for others, as well as the warehouse business, it's a tremendous opportunity in respect to the type of credit facility that we offer some of our clients given our size now. Our balance sheet at $90 billion, managing this business as being #2 in warehouse in the country, gives us a good shot at really bringing in real funding opportunities for the bank.

我總是說，當我們宣布交易時，我設想僅抵押貸款的嵌入式性質就是 100 億美元的機會。我非常有信心，對於 Lee Smith 的業務，託管業務，我們為他人提供的貸款以及倉庫業務，就我們為某些客戶提供的信貸便利類型而言，這是一個巨大的機會我們現在的尺寸。我們的資產負債表為 900 億美元，將這項業務管理為全國第二大倉庫，這讓我們有機會真正為銀行帶來真正的融資機會。

That being said, we still have a very interesting opportunity to take the technology that NYCB commonly have that's going to improve when we combine with Flagstar to make further improvements to start banking the mortgage business. I think the mortgage business, given the magnitude of our positioning, could have a lot more deposits attached to it. Maybe, Lee, if you want to add some color to the opportunity here on the mortgage side. But this is really what we saw from day 1, that we could easily build that up.

話雖這麼說，我們仍然有一個非常有趣的機會來利用 NYCB 通常擁有的技術，當我們與 Flagstar 結合以進一步改進以開始銀行抵押貸款業務時，這些技術將會得到改進。我認為，鑑於我們定位的規模，抵押貸款業務可能會有更多的存款。也許，李，如果你想在抵押貸款方面為這裡的機會增添一些色彩。但這確實是我們從第一天開始就看到的，我們可以很容易地建立它。

In addition to the other lines of areas that we're building up, which includes government as a service, doing some technology deposit opportunities, as well as going after the legacy NYCB customers to ensure that we make loans with deposits. So maybe, Lee, if you want to add some color on the lending -- the deposit-gathering opportunity on the mortgage side.

除了我們正在建設的其他領域之外，其中包括政府即服務、提供一些技術存款機會，以及追尋 NYCB 的傳統客戶以確保我們以存款發放貸款。所以，李，如果你想在貸款上增加一些色彩——抵押貸款方面的存款收集機會。

Yes. I think to Tom's point, and he's mentioned mortgage as a service for 18 months now. I mean we have, today, about $4.2 billion of escrow deposits from our servicing and subservicing book. And NYCB has at least a couple of billion of escrow deposits. And so we can bring more of those deposits in from the people that we're subservicing for, not just the deposits attached to the loans that we're servicing or subservicing but other escrow deposits that they have with other institutions.

是的。我認為湯姆的觀點，他提到抵押貸款作為一項服務已有 18 個月了。我的意思是，今天我們的服務和訂閱簿中有大約 42 億美元的託管存款。 NYCB 至少有幾十億的託管存款。因此，我們可以從我們為其提供服務的人那裡帶來更多的存款，不僅僅是我們正在服務或提供服務的貸款所附的存款，還有他們在其他機構的其他託管存款。

And then to Tom's point, given the technology the New York Community Bank has that we haven't had at Flagstar, there's an opportunity to go and raise core deposits from our TPO base. And remember, we're dealing with about 3,000 TPOs, correspondents, brokers, by having this sort of technology that allows them to do their business banking with New York Community Bank. And I think that's a big opportunity, and we can also take that technology to our warehouse customers as well, which we haven't done previously. So I think we can go and bring more escrow deposits in as well as core deposits as a result of the enhanced technology.

然後湯姆的觀點是，鑑於紐約社區銀行擁有我們在 Flagstar 沒有的技術，我們有機會從我們的 TPO 基地籌集核心存款。請記住，我們正在與大約 3,000 名 TPO、代理人、經紀人打交道，通過這種技術，他們可以在紐約社區銀行開展商業銀行業務。我認為這是一個很大的機會，我們也可以將這項技術也帶給我們的倉庫客戶，這是我們以前沒有做過的。所以我認為我們可以通過增強的技術帶來更多的託管存款和核心存款。

Yes. And like I indicated, we are a major credit provider for some of these clients. And when you get to that point where we are their primary credit facility, we should have a shot at of all of the deposit opportunities that they typically utilize in the marketplace. Not a guarantee, but clearly, the more money you have on the table, the more opportunity you have to really drive the relationship opportunity.

是的。正如我所指出的，我們是其中一些客戶的主要信貸提供者。當你到達我們是他們主要信貸機構的地步時，我們應該嘗試他們通常在市場上利用的所有存款機會。不是保證，但很明顯，你手上的錢越多，你真正推動這段關係的機會就越多。

In addition to that, thinking about the C&I opportunity, we have a long history here of not being in the market with boots on the ground on a stand-alone basis, legacy NYCB. Flagstar has made that transition. The goal here on a combined basis is to have boots on the ground focused on C&I, mid-market type companies. And given that we've been in this business since 1840 -- the mid-1800s, we have a shot at really catapulting deposit growth initiative when it comes to boots on the ground on C&I side.

除此之外，考慮到 C&I 的機會，我們在這裡有著悠久的歷史，沒有在獨立的基礎上在市場上推出靴子，即傳統的 NYCB。 Flagstar 已經實現了這一轉變。這裡的綜合目標是讓地面上的靴子專注於 C&I、中端市場類型的公司。鑑於我們自 1840 年以來一直從事這項業務 - 1800 年代中期，當涉及到 C&I 方面的實地靴子時，我們有機會真正推動存款增長計劃。

So all our C&I activity that's being done at Flagstar is being integrated into NYCB we have, like I indicated in our opening commentary, a lot of verticals here that's going to be deposit driven. As we start focusing on the lending facilities, we're going to focus on deposit growth. And deposit growth is going to be core value towards our DNA to improve the balance sheet metrics of this company.

因此，我們在 Flagstar 進行的所有 C&I 活動都被整合到 NYCB 中，就像我在開場評論中指出的那樣，這裡有很多垂直行業將由存款驅動。當我們開始關注貸款便利時，我們將關注存款增長。存款增長將成為我們 DNA 的核心價值，以改善該公司的資產負債表指標。

Sounds good. Maybe one last quick one. Just back on your comment that you're upgrading systems, what are some of the bigger systems that you're going to be upgrading?

聽起來不錯。也許最後一個快速。關於您正在升級系統的評論，您將要升級哪些更大的系統？

I would just -- we're going into a complex platform with Fiserv. We have a DNA platform. They have a architect lab. A hybrid version of something very unique, best opportunity as our core. But interesting to that, we also have a relationship with -- they have a relationship with Salesforce on a business development opportunity. That could be very powerful for the company. I think that's very unique that we haven't had here at NYCB that we can utilize throughout the entire organization.

我只想——我們將與 Fiserv 一起進入一個複雜的平台。我們有一個 DNA 平台。他們有一個建築師實驗室。一些非常獨特的東西的混合版本，最好的機會作為我們的核心。但有趣的是，我們也有關係——他們在業務發展機會上與 Salesforce 有關係。這對公司來說可能非常強大。我認為這是非常獨特的，我們在 NYCB 還沒有可以在整個組織中使用的東西。

For example, even the front-end system on loan process, their front end is very advanced, more in line with the regional bank model. They use Encino, we don't have Encino. So there's opportunities here that are significantly ramping up ourselves to a regional player when it comes to technology utilization. At the same time, we've also given Flagstar, on the commercial services side, an opportunity to really upstart the treasury function, the treasury capability of our current relationship that we have with Fiserv commercial services, which is -- it's been very successful for us. We've been really growing our core deposit base for our customers what the commercial services technology platform, where 5 years ago that was not an offering. And that has changed our ability to solidify the relationship lending on the deposit side.

比如就連貸款流程的前端系統，他們的前端都非常先進，更符合區域性銀行的模式。他們使用 Encino，我們沒有 Encino。因此，在技術利用方面，這裡有機會顯著提升我們成為區域參與者的機會。與此同時，我們還為 Flagstar 在商業服務方面提供了一個真正提升財務職能的機會，我們目前與 Fiserv 商業服務的關係的財務能力，這是非常成功的為我們。我們一直在為我們的客戶擴大我們的核心存款基礎，這是商業服務技術平台，而 5 年前那還不是一個產品。這改變了我們在存款方面鞏固關係貸款的能力。

So that's going to be, I think, a big win for the folks over Flagstar, to utilize that technology. So collectively, there's a lot of moving parts here. But we, like I said, moving away from a traditional thrift model to more of a commercial regional model when it comes to the tech -- the tech stack. And there's probably 10 other items that I can't disclose. I did throw a couple of names out there. But there's a lot of moving parts here, Dave, that's going to really enhance the experience of the customer regarding the new Flagstar.

因此，我認為，對於 Flagstar 的人們來說，利用這項技術將是一個巨大的勝利。所以總的來說，這裡有很多活動部件。但是，就像我說的那樣，在技術方面，我們正在從傳統的節儉模式轉向更多的商業區域模式——技術堆棧。可能還有其他 10 項我不能透露。我確實在那里扔了幾個名字。但這裡有很多活動部件，戴夫，這將真正提升客戶對新 Flagstar 的體驗。

Our next questions come from the line of Brody Preston with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Brody Preston。

Tom, I just wanted to follow up on the expense commentary. I'm sorry if I missed it, but did you -- could you tell us what the cost savings are from the mortgage restructure and the timing of when those kind of work in to 2023? And then separately, kind of what's a good run rate for operating expenses for the first quarter of the year.

湯姆，我只想跟進費用評論。如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，但是你能告訴我們抵押貸款重組節省了多少成本，以及這些工作到 2023 年的時間嗎？然後分別是今年第一季度運營費用的良好運行率。

So obviously, the first quarter is going to be the highest quarter because it's always the highest quarter of the year with payroll taxes and the like. But we embarked upon the mortgage repositioning and restructuring of that line, that channel, in late January. So you'll see that benefit going through towards the back end of Q1. The number is significant. As I indicated in our opening commentary, we're taking it down from to turn around 800 FTEs, where before at the high, in '21, that was 2,100. So it's a significant downsizing when it comes to a line of business.

很明顯，第一季度將是最高的季度，因為它始終是一年中工資稅等最高的季度。但我們在 1 月下旬開始對該線路、該渠道進行抵押貸款重新定位和重組。因此，您會在第一季度末看到這種好處。這個數字很重要。正如我在開場評論中指出的那樣，我們正在將其從 800 FTE 降低到 800 左右，而在 21 世紀的最高點之前，它是 2,100。因此，就業務線而言，這是一次重大的裁員。

That being said, there is a benefit there on cost reduction. At the same time, we took into account the revenue offset of that as well, right? So because you're taking out an unused balance sheet opportunity, so you have to look at the revenue side. And we also went into, I'll call it, shared services tied to embedded mortgages. So all in, that number is well over -- of a $100 million stand-alone. But at the same time, we also have our own cost structure that we have to focus on, on a combined basis on just the synergies of the company's combining. And that number is, as indicated back in -- when we announced the deal, is about $125 million.

話雖如此，降低成本是有好處的。同時，我們也考慮了它的收入抵消，對吧？因此，因為您正在取消未使用的資產負債表機會，所以您必須查看收入方面。我們還涉足，我稱之為與嵌入式抵押貸款相關的共享服務。所以總而言之，這個數字遠遠超過了 - 1 億美元的獨立。但與此同時，我們也有自己的成本結構，我們必須在合併的基礎上關注公司合併的協同效應。正如我們在宣布交易時所指出的那樣，這個數字約為 1.25 億美元。

Lee Smith has done a phenomenal job over the past 1.5 years managing a very tough business. He's always managed the business well. But 2022 was a challenging year, so they've been cutting and cutting and cutting. At the end of the day, we looked at the business at the fourth quarter and we wanted to make sure that this business is not losing any money. So we think that at this stage of the game, where we focus on mortgage, we're at a position where we have optionality to make a lot of money in the mortgage market change, but we're not going to be losing money in the current environment. That's important as we set the stage with the run rate.

在過去的 1.5 年裡，Lee Smith 在管理一項非常艱難的業務方面做得非常出色。他總是把生意管理得很好。但 2022 年是充滿挑戰的一年，所以他們一直在削減、削減和削減。歸根結底，我們查看了第四季度的業務，我們希望確保該業務不會虧損。所以我們認為，在遊戲的這個階段，我們專注於抵押貸款，我們處於可以選擇在抵押貸款市場變化中賺很多錢的位置，但我們不會虧錢當前環境。這很重要，因為我們為運行率奠定了基礎。

And think about the concept I was explaining on the call is that we want to be in a position where our multiple is not tied solely to mortgage and our multiple is tied to a balanced revenue stream. Having this unique structure on mortgage, traditionally consistent with a lot of the regional banks of our size, and having an embedded nature in mortgage, we have a great opportunity to look at the multiple as more of a commercial bank like multiple as we transition to a true commercial bank from a thrift model on the funding side.

想想我在電話中解釋的概念是，我們希望處於這樣一個位置，即我們的倍數不僅僅與抵押貸款掛鉤，而且我們的倍數與平衡的收入流掛鉤。擁有這種獨特的抵押貸款結構，傳統上與我們規模的許多區域性銀行一致，並且在抵押貸款中具有嵌入式性質，我們有很好的機會將倍數視為商業銀行的倍數，就像我們過渡到倍數一樣一家真正的商業銀行，來自資金方面的節儉模式。

So clearly, we want to focus on multiple expansion. We think this is one of the pieces to the puzzle to get there, and we acted promptly right after the closing, given the conditions in the marketplace. So when it comes to cost structure, like a guidance at $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, we hope to be on the low end of that guide. But clearly, we think it's a number that's achievable for us and that the cost structure starts to see discernible adjustments starting in February. But there's a lot of moving parts here because you have to look at both mortgage revenue and mortgage expense. Maybe, Lee, do you want to add some commentary on the mortgage (inaudible) of this journey, and this is your hard work and effort, which we want to commend for the effort as well.

很明顯，我們要專注於多重擴張。我們認為這是實現這一目標的關鍵之一，鑑於市場條件，我們在交易結束後立即採取了行動。因此，當談到成本結構時，比如 13 億美元至 14 億美元的指導，我們希望處於該指導的低端。但很明顯，我們認為這是一個我們可以實現的數字，並且成本結構從 2 月開始出現明顯的調整。但是這裡有很多變化的部分，因為你必須同時考慮抵押貸款收入和抵押貸款費用。也許，Lee，你想對這次旅程的抵押（聽不清）添加一些評論，這是你的辛勤工作和努力，我們也想讚揚你的努力。

Yes. Thanks, Tom. I mean it's a significant restructuring. There is going to be noise in the first quarter because we're still running off the pipeline as it relates to the branches that were closing down. We're paying severance. And then there's going to be some payments as we exit certain leases. We will isolate that as a restructuring charge. But there's going to be noise in the first quarter as a result of that from a cost point of view. When I think it will be very clean will be April 1. But having said that, and as Tom alluded to, we're going to start seeing benefits from what we've done as soon as February, given we executed on this restructuring last Thursday.

是的。謝謝，湯姆。我的意思是這是一次重大的重組。第一季度會有噪音，因為我們仍在關閉管道，因為它與關閉的分支機構有關。我們支付遣散費。然後，當我們退出某些租約時，將會有一些付款。我們將把它作為重組費用分離出來。但從成本的角度來看，第一季度會出現噪音。我認為 4 月 1 日會非常乾淨。但話雖如此，正如湯姆所暗示的那樣，我們將在 2 月份開始看到我們所做的事情帶來的好處，因為我們去年執行了這次重組週四。

Got it. Okay. And Tom, maybe just one follow-up on the expenses. Just given the conversion isn't happening until the first quarter, I guess, what percent of the 1 25 should we think about being more 2024 oriented versus 2023?

知道了。好的。湯姆，也許只是關於費用的一項後續行動。鑑於轉換要到第一季度才會發生，我想，我們應該考慮 1 25 中有多少百分比是更面向 2024 年而不是 2023 年？

Brody, I'd say half. But again, we've done a lot of transactions in our lifetime. We are going to -- we have hit the ground running hard. We know what we have to do as far as integration. This is typical when we look at transactions. And there's an opportunity here on a stand-alone basis. Like I indicated, we looked at the business ex mortgage when we announced the deal. We looked at a run rate was probably like $1.6 billion to almost $1.7 billion in total cost structure, and we tacked on about 1 25 ex mortgage.

布羅迪，我會說一半。但同樣，我們一生中做過很多交易。我們將 - 我們已經開始努力。就整合而言，我們知道我們必須做什麼。當我們查看交易時，這是典型的。這裡有一個獨立的機會。就像我指出的那樣，當我們宣布交易時，我們研究了抵押貸款業務。我們查看了總成本結構的運行率可能在 16 億美元到近 17 億美元之間，我們增加了大約 1 25 的前抵押貸款。

But mortgages changed, as I indicated, Lee has taken out a lot of cost in '22. We think this is it. This is where we feel very confident that we're lean. I think this is probably the lowest headcount that Flagstar has had and probably close to -- probably maybe 8, 9 years now. So I think we're in a very good position to really capitalize. A lot of investment in technology has been made by Flagstore and on the mortgage side we can benefit here. The servicing platform is substantial. There's a great opportunity to think about cross selling some product on the servicing side, both on a HELOC loan position as well as deposit gathering efforts.

但是抵押貸款發生了變化，正如我所指出的，Lee 在 22 年已經承擔了很多費用。我們認為就是這樣。這就是我們非常有信心認為自己是精益的地方。我認為這可能是 Flagstar 擁有的最低人數，並且可能接近 - 可能是 8、9 年來的最低水平。所以我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置，可以真正利用。 Flagstore 在技術方面進行了大量投資，在抵押貸款方面我們可以從中受益。服務平台豐富。這是一個很好的機會，可以考慮在服務方面交叉銷售某些產品，無論是在 HELOC 貸款頭寸還是在收集存款方面。

So we're in a good spot. It's a difficult decision when you have to make these types of significant restructuring efforts. But at this stage of the game, at that type of FTE, with this magnitude of the business and our presence, we have an opportunity here to really drive revenue at the appropriate time if there's a resurgence in opportunity in the mortgage business.

所以我們處在一個好位置。當您必須進行這些類型的重大重組工作時，這是一個艱難的決定。但在遊戲的這個階段，在那種類型的 FTE 中，憑藉如此龐大的業務和我們的存在，如果抵押貸款業務的機會復蘇，我們有機會在適當的時候真正推動收入。

Got it. And then maybe just switching over to the...

知道了。然後也許只是切換到...

Just one other point. The goal here was not to bleed. You don't want to hemorrhage red as we come together. And Lee was challenged last year, every quarter was a challenge when it comes to the changing interest rate environment. And we're going through quarterly repositioning on FTEs to a point where we looked at the business versus balance sheet, versus not balance sheet utilization. We really want to go back to the traditional mortgage banking model, where you had used balance sheet very selectively, and we are getting our gain on sale opportunity and we build the servicing portfolio as a revenue stream. So we have a barbell strategy over time depending on market interest rates.

還有一點。這裡的目標不是流血。當我們走到一起時，你不想流血。 Lee 去年受到了挑戰，在不斷變化的利率環境方面，每個季度都是一個挑戰。我們正在對 FTE 進行季度重新定位，以達到我們查看業務與資產負債表而不是資產負債表利用率的地步。我們真的很想回到傳統的抵押貸款銀行模式，在這種模式下，您非常有選擇地使用資產負債表，我們正在獲得銷售機會，我們將服務組合構建為收入來源。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們有一個槓鈴策略取決於市場利率。

Got it. And then maybe if I could just switch to the deposit base real quick. You mentioned the forward curve a couple of times on the call today, Tom. So I wanted to ask, near term kind of where do you see your cost of interest-bearing deposits or your deposit beta going as the Fed kind of continues to hike early in the year and then pauses? And then secondarily, just given the back end of the forward curve is starting to head down, how are you thinking about structuring your deposits from a maturity perspective?

知道了。然後也許我可以快速切換到存款基礎。湯姆，你今天在電話中多次提到遠期曲線。所以我想問一下，隨著美聯儲在今年年初繼續加息然後暫停，你認為你的生息存款成本或存款貝塔值在哪裡？其次，鑑於遠期曲線的後端開始下降，您如何考慮從期限角度構建您的存款？

I'll defer that question to John Pinto, our CFO, John?

我會把這個問題交給我們的首席財務官 John Pinto，John？

So yes, if we look at deposit betas, the balance sheet is really broken out into 2 different types, right? If you're looking at our deposits tied to either mortgage as a service, banking as a service and some of the brokered business, that's high beta. It's remained high beta since the beginning of the of the rate hike cycle. And then if you look at the more retail, the more stable piece from both legacy NYCB and legacy Flagstar, they have been much, much lower betas, of course, than that. They started to tick up. I think like just about everyone have seen, other banks have seen over the last couple of quarters. So we'll monitor that as well.

所以是的，如果我們看一下存款貝塔，資產負債表真的分為兩種不同的類型，對吧？如果您正在查看我們與抵押貸款即服務、銀行即服務和一些經紀業務相關的存款，那是高貝塔值。自加息週期開始以來，它一直處於高貝塔值。然後，如果你看看傳統 NYCB 和傳統 Flagstar 的更多零售、更穩定的產品，當然，它們的貝塔值要低得多。他們開始滴答作響。我想就像幾乎每個人都看到的那樣，其他銀行在過去幾個季度也看到了。所以我們也會監控它。

But when you look at where the curve is, it gets I think what Tom was talking about a little bit earlier, we do have a lot of flexibility in the borrowing base as well. So we'll be able to look at both where our deposits are funded and how they're funded, as well as borrowings to ensure we're ready for either of those positionings, right, either liability sensitive, slightly liability sensitive. Or if we needed to move, we could move that to asset sensitivity without too much difficulty with some shrinkage on the asset side. So I think we have the opportunity to do both there. And I think our deposit base, like I mentioned, is kind of split between what's in normal retail and what we have in the banking as a service business.

但是，當您查看曲線的位置時，我會想到湯姆之前所說的內容，我們在藉貸基礎上也確實有很大的靈活性。因此，我們將能夠查看我們的存款的資金來源和資金來源，以及借款，以確保我們為這些定位做好準備，對，無論是對負債敏感，還是對負債敏感。或者，如果我們需要移動，我們可以將其移動到資產敏感度，而不會有太大困難，資產方面會出現一些縮水。所以我認為我們有機會在那裡做這兩件事。而且我認為我們的存款基礎，就像我提到的那樣，在正常零售和我們在銀行即服務業務中所擁有的之間存在某種分歧。

So Brody, This is Tom, just to follow up on that. I made a very clear commentary probably about 1.5 years ago, that if you go from 0 to a much higher rate environment, now we'll just reiterate the .0 to, let's say, 5% I don't think you're hiding from people getting paid on excess liquidity. So that's the marketplace. So this is a phenomena in the financial services business right now. That money is very expensive right now and people want to get paid. The reality is that this company we have now is not going to be 20%, 30% liability sensitive, we're going to be closer to neutral.

布羅迪，我是湯姆，只是想跟進一下。我大概在 1.5 年前做了一個非常明確的評論，如果你從 0 到更高的利率環境，現在我們將重申 .0 到，比方說，5% 我不認為你在隱藏來自因流動性過剩而獲得報酬的人。這就是市場。所以這是目前金融服務行業的一種現象。這筆錢現在非常昂貴，人們希望得到報酬。現實情況是，我們現在擁有的這家公司不會對 20%、30% 的責任敏感，我們將更接近中立。

I think that's the game changer for us as we look at this combined business of Flagstar and NYCB, that we're going to position ourselves to not be vulnerable to rates going up. We want to take advantage of rates up and down as a business model. And that's the unique to some of the verticals, the type of assets we're going to have at a floating rate and having a better funding mix. So I think that's really the benefit of the merger that we're super excited about today. And I think, like I said, we put we put the banks together and we're around 4%, 5% liability sensitive without any repositioning or any assets. And we think that we have a lot of liquidity if we want to tap liquidity at the appropriate time, assuming market conditions warrant that.

當我們審視 Flagstar 和 NYCB 的合併業務時，我認為這對我們來說是遊戲規則的改變者，我們將把自己定位為不易受到利率上漲的影響。我們希望利用利率的上升和下降作為一種商業模式。這是某些垂直領域的獨特之處，我們將以浮動利率擁有這種資產，並擁有更好的資金組合。所以我認為這真的是我們今天非常興奮的合併的好處。而且我認為，就像我說的那樣，我們把銀行放在一起，我們的負債敏感度約為 4%，5%，沒有任何重新定位或任何資產。我們認為，如果我們想在適當的時候利用流動性，假設市場條件允許的話，我們就有很多流動性。

So I think having optionality is good here. And I think that the new Flagstar is a much bigger balance sheet with a lot of great clients that we can service. These are -- I call them the 5-star clients that we're going to go after and bank them and go after the funding opportunity. But our DNA is going to focus on getting great deposits to fund this institution very differently than the traditional thrift model.

所以我認為在這裡有選擇性很好。而且我認為新的 Flagstar 是一個更大的資產負債表，擁有許多我們可以服務的偉大客戶。這些是——我稱他們為我們將要追求的五星級客戶，並將他們存入銀行並尋求融資機會。但我們的 DNA 將專注於獲得大量存款來為這個機構提供資金，這與傳統的節儉模式截然不同。

Our next questions come from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Manan Gosalia 與摩根士丹利的對話。

You noted the $3 billion contribution from banking as a service product for government entities. Can you talk a little bit more about the growth opportunity there, especially given that those are lower-cost deposits?

您注意到銀行作為政府實體的服務產品貢獻了 30 億美元。你能多談談那裡的增長機會嗎，特別是考慮到那些是低成本的存款？

So we've done a really solid job on partnering with our fintech providers, and this has been a very good line of business for the bank as an alternative solution for funding the balance sheet. This particular program in the fourth quarter was driven off the California inflation stimulus benefit that was out there. We were the bank partner, we've been provider along with a very large tech company that partnered into the money network card business. That will dissipate, but that was another program that we rolled up.

因此，我們在與我們的金融科技提供商合作方面做得非常紮實，這對銀行來說是一個非常好的業務線，可以作為為資產負債表提供資金的替代解決方案。第四季度的這一特殊計劃是從現有的加州通脹刺激措施中脫穎而出的。我們是銀行合作夥伴，我們一直是供應商，與一家合作進入貨幣網絡卡業務的大型科技公司合作。那會消散，但那是我們推出的另一個程序。

Bear in mind, we've also made mention that we are the U.S. Treasury been provider for money network cause going forward and anything that the treasury does on the card side. So we have the opportunity to continue to build the business. As well as other municipals at the state level for a lot of the unemployment funds that we process under the Money Network cards business. So that business is going really well. We have a bunch of onboarding happening in 2023. I will tell you that it's hard to predict what quarter they come in. So we don't really count them because they come in, and they're fairly large.

請記住，我們還提到我們是美國財政部，一直是貨幣網絡的提供者，因為未來以及財政部在卡方面所做的任何事情。所以我們有機會繼續建立業務。以及我們在貨幣網絡卡業務下處理的大量失業基金以及州一級的其他市政當局。所以這項業務進展順利。我們將在 2023 年進行大量入職培訓。我會告訴你，很難預測他們會在哪個季度進入。所以我們並沒有真正計算他們，因為他們進來了，而且他們相當大。

And what's interesting about this model is that not only do we ramp up the opportunity to work with our technology providers, but we're also able to get our bankers into the municipal side of things, so the actual core deposit banking. So some of these relations resulted in a pure deposit relationship, either payroll for a state, doing some operating activity for the state, and it's been meaningful in respect to the deposit opportunity. This is something that we go up and give the top institutions in the country and all the top technology companies, and it's an RFP process. And we've been very successful over the past 1.5 years, but it does take time to onboard.

這種模式的有趣之處在於，我們不僅增加了與我們的技術提供商合作的機會，而且我們還能夠讓我們的銀行家進入市政方面，即實際的核心存款銀行業務。因此，其中一些關係導致了純粹的存款關係，要么是國家的工資單，要么是為國家做一些經營活動，這對存款機會來說是有意義的。這是我們向國內頂級機構和所有頂級科技公司提供的東西，這是一個 RFP 流程。在過去的 1.5 年裡，我們一直非常成功，但上船確實需要時間。

So I don't want to give any, we'll call it, aggressive vision of how much can come on. But when they do come on, it becomes meaningful. So for example, California was about $3 billion average balance and the cost of that was 0. We have some other programs that are coming in this year. depending on how quickly they ramp up U.S. Treasury, that could be depending on what program is actually endorsed by the government, and we would be then the company that's ready to go if they issue cards at their will when they're ready to make a decision on funding.

所以我不想給出任何，我們稱之為積極的願景，可以實現多少。但是當它們出現時，它就變得有意義了。因此，例如，加利福尼亞州的平均餘額約為 30 億美元，其成本為 0。今年我們還有一些其他計劃。取決於他們增加美國財政部的速度，這可能取決於政府實際認可的項目，如果他們準備好發行卡片時，我們將成為準備好的公司資金的決定。

So it's an interesting program. It's a good line of business. It's 1 of our 3 pillars of the banking as a service business that we carved out along with mortgage and tech, and it's been very successful. It started out back during the pandemic. and we were a very large balance sheet provider for stimulus payments and we were able to hold some nice balances for a considerable traded time on the cards side, and we continue to leverage off of that.

所以這是一個有趣的節目。這是一個很好的行業。這是我們與抵押貸款和技術一起開闢的銀行即服務業務的三大支柱之一，並且非常成功。它是在大流行期間開始的。我們是一個非常大的刺激支付資產負債表提供者，我們能夠在卡方面的相當長的交易時間內持有一些不錯的餘額，我們將繼續利用這一點。

Got it. And can you just remind us of the seasonality within the banking as a service portfolio?

知道了。您能否提醒我們銀行即服務組合中的季節性？

I think -- I mean, there's obviously the 3 components. The one that's very seasonal is obviously escrow payments. When you have mortgages coming in and out, you have tax payments, but we think that's going to be something that we could really drive further deposit opportunity. Like I indicated in my previous commentary, on the Lee Smith's business, there's tremendous opportunity to really be focused on managing the P&I payments and the tax payments for our large customers that we do business with, both on the warehouse side as well as on the servicing side.

我認為 - 我的意思是，顯然有 3 個組成部分。季節性很強的顯然是託管付款。當你有抵押貸款進出時，你要納稅，但我們認為這將是我們真正可以推動進一步存款機會的事情。就像我在之前的評論中指出的那樣，在 Lee Smith 的業務中，有巨大的機會真正專注於管理與我們有業務往來的大客戶的 P&I 支付和納稅，無論是在倉庫方面還是在服務端。

And that number can -- it goes up and down depending when the payments go back to the municipalities on the tax side, but there's always the P&I payments coming through. And we have a long history under AmTrust Mortgage to manage that. So I think we have a few billion dollars of pre-consolidation with Flagstar. As we indicated, I think he was at $4 billion. So we're probably around $6 billion now. But I see a $10 billion opportunity there, just by the current client base as we go after it. It's very volatile with respect to interest rates. There's a cost to that. But as things start to normalize on the interest rate side, we have an opportunity to have a different funding mechanism versus traditional -- nontraditional wholesale funding that the bank has been accustomed to.

這個數字可以——它會上下波動，這取決於稅收何時返回市政當局，但總有 P&I 付款。我們在 AmTrust Mortgage 的管理下擁有悠久的歷史。所以我認為我們與 Flagstar 有數十億美元的預整合。正如我們所指出的，我認為他身價 40 億美元。所以我們現在可能大約有 60 億美元。但我看到那裡有 100 億美元的機會，就在我們追求它的當前客戶群。它在利率方面非常不穩定。這是有代價的。但隨著利率方面的事情開始正常化，我們有機會擁有一種不同於銀行已經習慣的傳統 - 非傳統批發融資的融資機制。

So another source of opportunity. And the ones that we have credit with, I really feel the clients will be a credit with, I feel that we could do a better job on banking that client. And that's what we're going to go after. As we indicated, the true operating activity, that we could be helpful given our size and balance sheet and our technology offerings as well.

所以另一個機會來源。而那些我們值得信賴的人，我真的覺得客戶會值得信賴，我覺得我們可以在為該客戶提供銀行業務方面做得更好。這就是我們要追求的。正如我們所指出的，真正的經營活動，我們可以提供幫助，因為我們的規模和資產負債表以及我們的技術產品。

Our next questions come from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

I wanted to start on NIM. So I appreciate the 1Q '23 guidance. But Tom, what does that mean in the release? Here you say you expect 2023 margin above where you ended the year, I would think that would be on a spot basis, maybe consistent with 1Q '23 guidance. Can you talk through that?

我想從 NIM 開始。所以我很欣賞 1Q '23 的指導。但是湯姆，這在發布中意味著什麼？在這裡你說你預計 2023 年的利潤率高於你年底的水平，我認為這將是現貨，可能與 23 年第一季度的指導一致。你能談談嗎？

I'll give a broad discussion of front and John will go into the details. But we're kind of indicating that we have 1 month of Flagstar at the fourth quarter going into our current NIM on a historical look-back basis for Q4, and we've been in the low 2 20. Was it 2 28? John.

我將對 front 進行廣泛的討論，John 將深入討論細節。但是我們有點表明我們在第四季度有 1 個月的 Flagstar 進入我們當前的 NIM 在第四季度的歷史回顧基礎上，我們一直處於低位 2 20。是 2 28 嗎？約翰。

2 28.

2 28。

So if you think about our guide for Q1 at 2 55 to 2 65, we have the benefit of a lot more floating rate assets, different verticals that are priced to footing rating indices. At the same time, we have a significant amount of customers that are rolling into their option period. So for example, in Q4, we had about $0.5 billion of multifamily loans that went to sell for plus 2 25 and 2 50.

因此，如果您考慮一下我們對第一季度 2 55 至 2 65 的指南，我們將受益於更多的浮動利率資產，不同的垂直行業根據基礎評級指數定價。與此同時，我們有大量客戶正在進入他們的選擇期。因此，例如，在第四季度，我們有大約 5 億美元的多戶家庭貸款以 2 25 和 2 50 的價格出售。

2 50

2 50

2 50 coming off a 3% coupon. So that's adding to the benefit of repricing, when you think about the choices going forward -- absent the funding side, on the asset side, we really do have a unique opportunity to have a lot more assets repricing into the marketplace as well as a much more we call higher-yielding offering when it comes to the floating rate instrument, and more of a focus to allow our customers to utilize derivatives to finance their long term as an alternative solution and traditional fixed rate terms.

2 50 減免 3% 的優惠券。因此，當你考慮未來的選擇時，這增加了重新定價的好處——在資產方面沒有資金方面，我們確實有一個獨特的機會讓更多的資產重新定價進入市場以及當談到浮動利率工具時，我們更多地稱之為高收益產品，並且更多地關注允許我們的客戶利用衍生品為其長期融資作為替代解決方案和傳統固定利率條款。

So we've been proactive on running out the capital markets activity that Flagstar offers to their customers to some of our larger multifamily players that are doing larger transactions we want to synthetically structure for the balance sheet. So we really do have an interesting series of choices on the verticals to really drive capital into businesses that are high-yielding businesses. That being said, the funding is where you have still pressure. Obviously, I indicated about a 4%, 5% liability sensitivity as we close the books at year-end, but that's going to have a couple more rate hikes. And obviously, the forward curve has a pause for a while, so we're going to deal with that.

因此，我們一直在積極開展 Flagstar 向他們的客戶提供的資本市場活動，這些活動是我們一些較大的多戶家庭參與者正在進行我們希望為資產負債表綜合構建的較大交易。因此，我們在垂直領域確實有一系列有趣的選擇，可以真正將資本推向高收益企業。話雖這麼說，資金是你仍然有壓力的地方。顯然，當我們在年底結賬時，我指出了大約 4%、5% 的負債敏感性，但這將有幾次加息。顯然，遠期曲線有一段時間的停頓，所以我們要處理這個問題。

But ultimately, we think we can move that 5% to neutrality very quickly depending on where we want to position some of these assets. So I think we do have higher margins going back to my point. We're starting in the low 2s and we're already in the mid-2s in the start of the year. So it's a different margin business given that we have new asset classes going into 2023. And with the focus of really building out more C&I business as a homework for the company, in addition to our legacy businesses, which we're going to support, we'll have a lot more choices, Steven, which will drive margin.

但最終，我們認為我們可以非常迅速地將這 5% 轉移到中性，這取決於我們希望將其中一些資產置於何處。所以我認為我們確實有更高的利潤率回到我的觀點。我們從低 2s 開始，我們已經在今年年初進入 mid-2s。因此，鑑於我們將在 2023 年擁有新的資產類別，因此這是一項不同的保證金業務。除了我們將支持的傳統業務之外，我們的重點是真正建立更多的 C&I 業務作為公司的功課，史蒂文，我們將有更多選擇，這將提高利潤率。

Yes. Do you think you can hold in -- because the next quarter is going to be the first quarter where we have the new company, right, for the full quarter. Do you think you can hold NIM in this 1Q range beyond the first quarter through the rest of the year?

是的。你認為你可以堅持嗎 - 因為下個季度將是我們擁有新公司的第一個季度，對，整個季度。你認為你可以在今年剩餘時間裡將 NIM 保持在第一季度之後的這個 1Q 範圍內嗎？

You're not going to get me to a point to give forward guidance on the margin, but it's a good try. We typically give Q1 -- we give a 3-month outlook on margin. I think the unique opportunity here is that we have a different balance sheet, we have a different positioning, we have unique asset classes. We're still challenged, as all banks are challenged, on the funding side. If we could be successful in moving some of these wholesale liabilities into true core deposits, then it's a game changer for our multiple.

你不會讓我對邊緣給出前瞻性指導，但這是一個很好的嘗試。我們通常給出第一季度——我們給出 3 個月的利潤率展望。我認為這裡獨特的機會是我們有不同的資產負債表，我們有不同的定位，我們有獨特的資產類別。在資金方面，我們仍然面臨挑戰，因為所有銀行都面臨挑戰。如果我們能夠成功地將其中一些批發負債轉化為真正的核心存款，那麼這將改變我們的倍數。

That's the strategy. That's not going to be an overnight strategy, but we've done a lot of work over the past 2.5 years. But we're starting the year very strong with a solid margin compared to standalone NYCB with the benefits of a much higher average margin for the year, knowing that we're going to have probably an increase tomorrow and another increase in March, which will hit all banks in respect to excess liquidity, including NYCB. And we still have to contend with our liability funding on the wholesale side that's repricing, and then it'll stabilize.

這就是策略。這不會是一蹴而就的戰略，但我們在過去 2.5 年裡做了大量工作。但與獨立的 NYCB 相比，我們今年開局非常強勁，利潤率穩固，這得益於今年平均利潤率高得多，我們知道明天可能會增加，三月份可能會再次增加，這將在流動性過剩方面打擊了所有銀行，包括 NYCB。而且我們仍然必須在重新定價的批發方面應對我們的負債融資，然後它會穩定下來。

If I could follow up..

如果我能跟進..

John, maybe some color.

約翰，也許有些顏色。

The only other item and we mentioned it earlier on the government as a service deposits, right? We had that program really kick off at the end of 2022. And then we see -- now we start to see really the utilization of those funds that we're seeing that start to roll down as we would have expected in the first quarter, and that is noninterest-bearing accounts. So that's just another item for -- that we'll see that's beneficial in the first quarter that we lose a lot of that benefit when we go forward.

唯一的其他項目，我們之前提到過政府作為服務存款，對嗎？我們在 2022 年底真正啟動了該計劃。然後我們看到 - 現在我們開始真正看到這些資金的利用率，我們看到這些資金的利用率開始下降，正如我們在第一季度所預期的那樣，那是無息賬戶。所以這只是另一個項目——我們將在第一季度看到這是有益的，當我們繼續前進時，我們會失去很多好處。

Yes. I would add, internally, when we look at the business even on the multifamily side, going back to 2012, 2013, we had a high fee income opportunity and the actual yield on that asset class is much higher because of the propensity of prepayment. We ended the year this year at the lowest level of prepayment activity compared to the financial crisis. Literally, if you go back, it was significantly lower than we had anticipated. And we had a very strong year. We had another record year in earnings, but you get -- the multiple is what it is. We were liability sensitive.

是的。我要補充的是，在內部，當我們甚至在多戶家庭方面審視業務時，可以追溯到 2012 年、2013 年，我們有很高的手續費收入機會，而且由於提前還款的傾向，該資產類別的實際收益率要高得多。與金融危機相比，我們今年年底的預付款活動處於最低水平。從字面上看，如果你回去，它會大大低於我們的預期。我們度過了非常強勁的一年。我們的收入又創下了新紀錄，但你會得到 - 倍數就是它。我們對責任很敏感。

But if you think about where we ended up about $45 million in total prepayment activity, if you go back to '13, that number was $140 million. So we're off by over $100 million and the portfolio is probably substantially larger than it is today than it was back in '13. So there's tremendous opportunity to really get that coupon from a 3% coupon to the market and be very cognizant of the fee embedded in that structure to drive margin. But we have a very conservative estimate in our forecast internally, even though we don't go out the full year, of how this asset class will react. Because the asset class is very stable right now. There is no activity on prepay. There's no large purchase transaction activity. We think that will change once rates start to become more expected based on the borrowing base. Right now, customers are not doing a whole lot. So we're kind of having a larger balance sheet with lower yields. And as they reprice, we're getting a nice benefit on that particular core asset class.

但是，如果您考慮一下我們在預付款活動總額中結束了大約 4500 萬美元，如果您回到 13 年，這個數字是 1.4 億美元。因此，我們減少了超過 1 億美元，而且投資組合可能比現在比 13 年時大得多。因此，有巨大的機會真正從 3% 的優惠券中獲得優惠券進入市場，並非常了解該結構中嵌入的費用以提高利潤率。但我們在內部預測中有一個非常保守的估計，即使我們沒有出去全年，這個資產類別將如何反應。因為資產類別現在非常穩定。沒有關於預付款的活動。沒有大的購買交易活動。我們認為，一旦基於借貸基礎的利率開始變得更具預期性，這種情況就會發生變化。現在，客戶並沒有做很多事情。因此，我們的資產負債表規模更大，收益率更低。當他們重新定價時，我們在該特定核心資產類別上獲得了不錯的收益。

Got it. Tom, if I could also ask, so if I look at the guidance, the average loan growth of around 5% for full year '23, which doesn't make sense because you have Flagstar for the full year of 2023. What's the base that you're comparing that to?

知道了。湯姆，如果我也可以問的話，那麼如果我看一下指導意見，23 年全年的平均貸款增長率約為 5%，這沒有意義，因為你有 2023 年全年的 Flagstar。基數是多少你拿它來比較？

Look, we're very conservative right now. It's early in the year. Last year, we had 10% net loan growth on multifamily. A lot of that was driven because market conditions have changed. Like I indicated, we're not going to have the activity until customers are comfortable on pulling down equity and buying and selling asset classes. That's not happening in the marketplace today. So you're going to have a larger asset class for longer. But I think we have a conservative model that we're going to be very focused on making sure we get the best economics given the market condition.

看，我們現在非常保守。現在是年初。去年，我們的多戶家庭貸款淨增長了 10%。其中很大一部分是因為市場條件發生了變化。就像我指出的那樣，在客戶對拉低股票和買賣資產類別感到滿意之前，我們不會開展這項活動。今天的市場上並沒有發生這種情況。所以你將擁有更大的資產類別更長時間。但我認為我們有一個保守的模型，我們將非常專注於確保我們在市場條件下獲得最佳經濟效益。

And Steven, as you know, it's expensive right now to finance short term. So when you look at, let's say, a 3-year average life financing against a multifamily credit to average life, we need to get paid economically. That number is around 6% in the market, 2 25 off the 5-year treasury. And that's where we're holding our line, I think that's the right economics for us as we look at the lines of businesses. So when you think about 5% net loan growth, I think that's reasonable. We always come out with a conservative estimate. If it changes, it changes, but it's early on. And given that most customers are really kind of sitting on the side also trying to figure out what their funding needs are going to be in a very unique changing interest rate environment, I think it's reasonable.

史蒂文，正如你所知，現在短期融資很昂貴。所以當你看，比方說，一個 3 年的平均生活融資對多戶家庭信貸的平均生活，我們需要經濟地獲得報酬。這個數字在市場上約為 6%，比 5 年期國債低 2 25。這就是我們堅持的方向，我認為這對我們來說是正確的經濟學，因為我們看的是業務線。所以當你考慮 5% 的淨貸款增長時，我認為這是合理的。我們總是得出一個保守的估計。如果它改變了，它就會改變，但現在還很早。考慮到大多數客戶真的是坐在一邊，也在試圖弄清楚在一個非常獨特的不斷變化的利率環境中他們的資金需求是什麼，我認為這是合理的。

Warehouse could change dramatically, dramatically if these rates go down, if for some reason we're in a different rate environment. So at the back end of this year, we have $11.5 billion warehouse book that has about $3 billion outstanding, that number could double very quickly. So we have an opportunity at very high spreads along with some of the other lines of businesses. So we really are being conservative, and we want to be conservative. So 10% was a big year for us on a stand-alone basis. And if you take Flagstar's held for investment portfolio out of the resi side, they were relatively flat or down slightly for the year given the challenge in the mortgage business.

如果由於某種原因我們處於不同的費率環境中，如果這些費率下降，倉庫可能會發生巨大變化。所以在今年年底，我們有 115 億美元的倉庫賬簿，其中約有 30 億美元未償還，這個數字可能會很快翻一番。因此，我們有機會與其他一些業務一起獲得非常高的利差。所以我們真的很保守，我們想要保守。所以 10% 對我們來說是一個獨立的大年。如果你將 Flagstar 持有的投資組合從 resi 方面剔除，考慮到抵押貸款業務面臨的挑戰，它們今年相對持平或略有下降。

Got it. Okay. So just to clarify, you're assuming 5% over full year 2022 average loan?

知道了。好的。所以澄清一下，你假設 2022 年全年平均貸款增加 5%？

It's an early guide.

這是一個早期的指南。

Our next question has come from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

John, just to make sure I'm clear on the expenses. The midpoint of your guide is pretty good to consensus, call it, $50 million or $60 million. The amortization expense, need a little help there. It looks like it was $5 million, which would annualize to about $60 million. Is that about the right amortization expense for the year?

約翰，只是為了確保我清楚費用。您指南的中點非常適合達成共識，稱其為 5000 萬美元或 6000 萬美元。攤銷費用，需要一點幫助。看起來是 500 萬美元，年化後約為 6000 萬美元。那是關於當年正確的攤銷費用嗎？

Yes, it is. When you look at this change in the interest rate environment, not only did it have impacts on the purchase accounting adjustments for loans and securities. But also for CDI. I think originally, we expected CDI to be at a much lower number when we announced the deal, but it's definitely changed given this interest rate environment. So yes, when you look at that -- all intangible amortizations that $5 million, that $5 million a month is a good run rate for 2023.

是的。當你觀察利率環境的這種變化時，它不僅對貸款和證券的購買會計調整產生了影響。但也適用於 CDI。我認為最初，我們在宣布交易時預計 CDI 的數字要低得多，但鑑於這種利率環境，它肯定會發生變化。所以是的，當你看那個——所有無形攤銷 500 萬美元，每月 500 萬美元是 2023 年的良好運行率。

Yes. On the $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, that excludes amortization of CDI. That's exclusive of amortization.

是的。在 13 億美元至 14 億美元中，不包括 CDI 的攤銷。這不包括攤銷。

No -- yes, that makes sense. It looks like they offset each other. In terms of the accretion, John, any -- what's the accretable yield that might be considered in the guide? Or how should we think about accretion income as a margin contributor?

不——是的，這是有道理的。看起來他們互相抵消了。就增生而言，約翰，指南中可能考慮的增生產量是多少？或者我們應該如何考慮作為保證金貢獻者的增值收入？

Yes. So the way to think about it is we have benefits coming in from accretion from the loan and the security side, and that's partially offset from CDs, sub-debt and the trust preferred. So you're looking probably on average in the $10 million range, I would say, from an accretion perspective per month. That we'll probably see. The hard part about getting exact guidance on that is when you look at the Flagstar loan portfolio, especially and even some of the securities portfolios, the floating rate pieces are marked pretty close to par, if not really at par from an interest rate risk perspective.

是的。因此，考慮它的方式是我們從貸款和安全方面的增加中獲得好處，這部分抵消了 CD、次級債務和首選信託。所以你可能平均在 1000 萬美元的範圍內，我會說，從每月增長的角度來看。我們可能會看到。獲得準確指導的難點在於，當你查看 Flagstar 貸款組合時，尤其是甚至一些證券組合，浮動利率部分被標記為非常接近面值，如果從利率風險的角度來看不是真正的面值.

Some of the more fixed rate items has much deeper discounts. So it really depends on the speeds that start to come in on those. So we're trying to be conservative as to the speed in which those discounts will come back to us. But you could see some swings in that as payoffs come because you've got to recapture some of those pretty big discounts as you go forward.

一些更固定利率的項目有更大的折扣。所以這真的取決於開始進入的速度。因此，我們試圖對這些折扣返回給我們的速度保持保守。但隨著回報的到來，你可能會看到其中的一些波動，因為你必須在前進的過程中重新獲得一些相當大的折扣。

Yes. Again, just to put my accounting hat on, offsetting that in 2024, assuming most of the CDs are short term, and that discount -- that band premium will be gone and you have the possibility of higher accretion in the funnel.

是的。再一次，只是為了把我的會計帽子戴上，抵消 2024 年，假設大多數 CD 是短期的，並且折扣 - 波段溢價將消失，你有可能在漏斗中增加更多。

Yes, the CD mark is -- yes, it's definitely a little bit shorter than the security in the loan mark, yes.

是的，CD 標記是——是的，它肯定比貸款標記中的安全性短一點，是的。

Okay. $10 million a month will flow through the margin. and that's included in the guidance, correct?

好的。每月 1000 萬美元將流經保證金。這包含在指南中，對嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay. And then I just want to come back to Steve's question, just to make sure I'm totally buttoned up. The held-for-sale loans were about $1 billion. I guess question one, is that about plus or minus where we should think about held for sale? And the guide for mid-single digit, I'm looking at your average balance sheet, that's a -- is that off a $56 billion base? Is that what you're using?

好的。然後我只想回到史蒂夫的問題，只是為了確保我完全搞定了。持有待售貸款約為10億美元。我猜第一個問題是，我們應該考慮持有待售的正負值是多少？中個位數的指南，我在看你的平均資產負債表，那是——它是在 560 億美元的基礎上嗎？那是你正在使用的嗎？

The mid-single -- for the loan growth?

中單——為了貸款增長？

Yes.

是的。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

No -- yes, it's based off of the spot loan balance at 12/31. So 69 -- so we're doing a 12/31, the 5% 12/31 '23 -- to get back to the previous question, as compared to the, call it, 12/31 '22 spot to spot.

不——是的，它基於 12/31 的即期貸款餘額。所以 69——所以我們正在做 12/31，即 5% 12/31 '23——回到上一個問題，與所謂的 12/31 '22 點對點相比。

As far as the loans held for sale, so maybe Lee Smith can have some color on the business, since we got Lee on the call. Lee?

就持有待售貸款而言，李·史密斯可能會對業務有所了解，因為我們接到了李的電話。李?

Yes. No, I think that $1 billion that you mentioned, you can expect us to be in that ZIP code $1 billion, $1.5 billion throughout '23. Obviously, we're in one of the toughest mortgage markets for the last 25 years. And so when we look at where activities now, I think that $1 billion to $1.5 billion is a good estimate for the remainder of '23 for available for sale.

是的。不，我認為你提到的 10 億美元，你可以期望我們在整個 23 年的郵政編碼中達到 10 億美元，15 億美元。顯然，我們處於過去 25 年來最艱難的抵押貸款市場之一。因此，當我們看看現在的活動時，我認為 10 億到 15 億美元是對 23 年剩餘時間可供出售的一個很好的估計。

Our next questions come from the line of Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Winter with D.A.戴維森。

Can you just give an update on the capital priorities going forward, and maybe some thoughts on share buybacks?

您能否介紹一下未來資本優先事項的最新情況，也許還有一些關於股票回購的想法？

I'll start out with the first priority. Our dividend will continue at the current rate, and that's been a priority historically and we're very confident there. Obviously, we had a substantial -- an accounting event at year-end. Markets have changed, and we had to deal with that in respect to capital. So we traded some of the book value benefit to the earnings accretion going forward under the capital side, so that did have an impact. That being said, I'll defer to John specifically on how we're going to get that back. And obviously, where our capital stack currently sits, but going back to my priority, is we're going to continue to paying the current dividend rate for the combined shareholder base.

我將從第一優先開始。我們的股息將繼續以目前的速度發放，這在歷史上一直是優先事項，我們對此非常有信心。顯然，我們在年底有一個重要的會計事件。市場已經發生變化，我們不得不在資本方面應對這一變化。因此，我們將一些賬面價值收益交易到資本方面的未來收益增長中，因此確實產生了影響。話雖這麼說，但我會特別聽取約翰關於我們將如何取回它的意見。顯然，我們目前的資本堆棧在哪裡，但回到我的首要任務，我們將繼續為合併後的股東基礎支付當前的股息率。

And historically, the company has had a multifaceted capital plan when it's -- from payback to shareholders with dividends, and years ago, stock repurchases, of course. So first, the use of capital, as Tom said, is the dividend and the second is for growth. So any excess capital that we have after those 2 things, we would absolutely look at down the road a potential buyback as market conditions dictate.

從歷史上看，該公司有一個多方面的資本計劃——從用股息回報股東，當然還有幾年前的股票回購。因此，首先，正如湯姆所說，資本的使用是紅利，其次是增長。因此，在這兩件事之後我們擁有的任何多餘資本，我們絕對會根據市場條件的要求考慮未來的潛在回購。

Okay. And then just real quick, just on the $3.4 billion office exposure, just can you give a little bit more color on an update from a credit perspective on office?

好的。然後真的很快，就 34 億美元的辦公室曝光，你能從辦公室的信用角度為更新提供更多顏色嗎？

Yes. Well, both on office and really throughout the CRE and portfolio has been unbelievably strong from a credit perspective. We've seen -- we've seen no transition into the 30-day to 90-day buckets or delinquency buckets. Really, no real concerns even that have come out of the deferred loan process that we went through. Payments have been as we would have expected. So we've really started to see a little bit of occupancy kick up there as well. So the performance in that portfolio has been better than we originally expected coming out of the pandemic.

是的。好吧，從信用的角度來看，無論是在辦公室還是在整個 CRE 和投資組合中，都非常強勁。我們已經看到 - 我們沒有看到 30 天到 90 天桶或拖欠桶的過渡。真的，即使是我們經歷的延期貸款流程也沒有真正的擔憂。付款如我們所料。所以我們真的開始看到那裡的入住率也有所上升。因此，該投資組合的表現好於我們最初預期的大流行病表現。

I would just add to John's comments, strong sponsorship, very low LTV, very comfortable with the relationship, long-term relationship, lending tied to some of the multifamily investment as well, so there's a lot of history there on the NYCB stand-alone. We picked up some commercial real estate from the Flagstar folks as well on office, Not material amount, it's maybe about $1 billion, John, total -- is it total little less than billion.

我只想補充一下 John 的評論，強大的讚助，非常低的 LTV，對這種關係非常滿意，長期關係，貸款也與一些多戶投資相關，所以紐約市獨立銀行有很多歷史.我們從 Flagstar 的人那裡購買了一些商業地產，還有辦公室，不是實質性的金額，可能大約是 10 億美元，John，總計 - 總計不到 10 億美元。

Yes. Total office is $3.4 billion.

是的。辦公室總價值為 34 億美元。

$3.4 billion. And again, it goes back to the history, as John indicated, we're not seeing any negative trends and the LTV is relatively low. And in the event that we have to sit down and deal with a situation that has maybe some of credit deterioration, we think we're well protected as a sponsorship as well as overall value. I haven't seen any negative trends speed. It's been very, very solid.

34億美元。再一次，它可以追溯到歷史，正如約翰指出的那樣，我們沒有看到任何負面趨勢，而且 LTV 相對較低。如果我們不得不坐下來處理可能有一些信用惡化的情況，我們認為我們作為贊助商和整體價值得到了很好的保護。我還沒有看到任何負面趨勢速度。它非常非常堅固。

And when those loans come up for refinance, can you just maybe update LTVs or debt service coverage ratios when they come up for refinance?

當這些貸款需要再融資時，您能否在它們需要再融資時更新 LTV 或償債覆蓋率？

We have about $1 billion in '23 that's coming up in total CRE. That's not off...

我們在 23 年的 CRE 總額中有大約 10 億美元。那不是關...

It's not just office.

這不僅僅是辦公室。

And that kind of at the [5 68] coupon, and that coupon is probably closer to 7 and change now. And then next year in '24 is about another $1 billion. So we don't have a ton of money. Looks like it's 50% of the CRE book over the next 2 years coming due. And next year, I think it's a 5% coupon. So again, we think we have an up rate potential on repricing them. But when you look at the average LTV, I'm not sure if you have that on you, John, it's a pretty low average LTV.

那種在 [5 68] 的優惠券，那張優惠券可能接近 7，現在改變。然後明年在 24 年又增加了大約 10 億美元。所以我們沒有很多錢。看起來它是未來 2 年到期的 CRE 書籍的 50%。明年，我認為這是 5% 的優惠券。因此，我們再次認為我們有重新定價的潛力。但是當你看平均 LTV 時，我不確定你是否有這個，約翰，這是一個非常低的平均 LTV。

56.

56.

[56] average LTV on office. And I think we feel pretty confident that, again, we haven't seen at all any deterioration. As John indicated, a 30-day bucket, delinquency buckets or 0. I feel pretty good about that and given the current environment. But in the event, even during the pandemic, we had a handful of customers that we're thinking about maybe having issues, and we gave them some balance sheet, we gave them some relief, and ultimately, we got them to the other side.

[56] 平均 LTV 在辦公室。而且我認為我們非常有信心，我們沒有看到任何惡化。正如 John 所指出的，30 天的期限、拖欠期限或 0。考慮到當前的環境，我對此感覺非常好。但結果是，即使在大流行期間，我們也有一些客戶，我們認為他們可能有問題，我們給了他們一些資產負債表，讓他們鬆了一口氣，最終，我們把他們帶到了另一邊.

And in the event there was any maneuverability in the end, we're very comfortable on exiting the asset class, and there's plenty of investors that will look at these assets as, we'll call them, unique New York City assets that will be well owned, but would love to be owned by investors that are comfortable on taking the keys from the bank if necessary. We haven't had to have that problem right so far. But in the event we do, we have low leverage and we have strong sponsorship. So hopefully, the sponsors stay strong. And if they have to kick in some more equity to keep in going, that's the expectation.

如果最終有任何可操作性，我們對退出資產類別感到非常放心，並且有很多投資者將這些資產視為我們稱之為紐約市獨特的資產擁有良好，但希望由願意在必要時從銀行拿走鑰匙的投資者擁有。到目前為止，我們還沒有遇到過這個問題。但如果我們這樣做，我們的影響力很低，而且我們有強大的讚助。所以希望贊助商保持強大。如果他們必須投入更多資金才能繼續前進，那就是期望。

And they've been willing to kick in the equity, if needed?

如果需要，他們願意投入股權嗎？

We haven't had this conversation yet, but we're very focused on conservative underwriting, and that's how we look at our book. These are -- we don't have a huge portfolio relevant to the total balance sheet. But what loans we do have their relationship sponsorship type transactions that we're very comfortable that historically in the past, we have seen customers by checks. We've had a couple of handful over the past 6 to 9 months, and these are very large families that are comfortable on keeping their coveted asset classes in their families business.

我們還沒有進行過這次對話，但我們非常關注保守的承保，這就是我們看待我們的書的方式。這些是 - 我們沒有與總資產負債表相關的龐大投資組合。但是我們所做的貸款有他們的關係贊助類型的交易，我們在過去的歷史上非常舒服，我們通過支票看到了客戶。在過去的 6 到 9 個月裡，我們有幾個家族，這些都是非常大的家族，他們願意在家族企業中保留他們夢寐以求的資產類別。

Got it. Congratulations on closing this deal.

知道了。祝賀您完成這筆交易。

Thank you, Peter. It's been a journey, but we're looking to the future, we're super excited.

謝謝你，彼得。這是一段旅程，但我們展望未來，我們非常興奮。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Matthew Breese 與 Stephens 的對話。

Just to clarify, the $10 million a month of accretable yields, is that just for the first quarter of -- I'm assuming the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of '23? And if it's not, could you give us some sense for the cadence of accretable yield in '23? Usually, it's pretty front-end loaded. I just want to get a sense for the cadence there?

只是澄清一下，每月 1000 萬美元的可增加收益率，只是針對第一季度——我假設是今年第四季度或 23 年第一季度？如果不是，您能否讓我們了解 23 年可增長收益的節奏？通常，它是前端加載的。我只是想了解那裡的節奏？

Yes. I mean it can be front-end loaded, no doubt, but that's the average. That's what I would assume for 2023. You will have -- like I said, when you have some deep discounts and you do have some payoffs, you can have some spikes here and there. But no, I don't expect it to be dramatically different than that in '23. CD runoff will start in really in '24, which will benefit '24's number as well.

是的。我的意思是它可以被前端加載，毫無疑問，但這是平均水平。這就是我對 2023 年的假設。就像我說的那樣，當你有一些大幅折扣並且你確實有一些回報時，你會在這里和那裡出現一些尖峰。但不，我不認為它會與 23 年有很大不同。 CD 徑流將真正從 24 年開始，這也將有利於 24 年的數字。

Okay. And then just on the core NIM components, can you give us the year-end spot rate on interest-bearing deposits? And then what are incremental multifamily and commercial real estate yields coming on at today?

好的。然後就NIM的核心組成部分，你能告訴我們年末生息存款的即期利率嗎？那麼今天的多戶住宅和商業房地產的增量收益率是多少？

I'll go to the yield. So Matt, we're looking at, like I indicated, we're pushing towards 2 25-ish at the 5-year, we're trying to have around 6% on a traditional 5-year deal. Commercial is probably another 50 bps above that. We're not really doing a long-term financing. And if we do long-term financing, we're really pushing our capital markets group to sit down with the customer and structure something synthetically, which does change the economics for the bank as well as for the customer. So we're giving them more choices.

我會去產量。所以馬特，我們正在看，就像我指出的那樣，我們正在推動 5 年期 2 25-ish，我們試圖在傳統的 5 年期交易中獲得 6% 左右。商業可能再高出 50 個基點。我們並不是真的在做長期融資。如果我們進行長期融資，我們實際上是在推動我們的資本市場團隊與客戶坐下來，綜合構建一些東西，這確實會改變銀行和客戶的經濟狀況。所以我們給他們更多的選擇。

I indicated a lot of our customers that aren't doing a whole lot, they have an option and the option was a very expensive option. We gave them a third option, which is a SOFR option, which is 2 50 off of SOFR, and SOFR has been rising. So it's not as attractive as it was 6 months ago, but it's an alternative, and we're seeing probably half of our customers on the multifamily side opt into that choice, which we like that prefer for interest rate risk balance sheet management perspective. But a much higher coupon. I think I indicated that the commercial side, what's repricing. But in '23, we have about another $2.5 billion, around $388 million on the multi-side. And if you take in over the next 2 years, it's about -- but just about $6 billion on multi, but like a 3 70, 3 75 coupon and market yields are around 6%, assuming they all go into a 5-year structure, not doing a whole lot of 7-year tenure.

我指出我們的很多客戶並沒有做很多事情，他們有一個選擇，而這個選擇是一個非常昂貴的選擇。我們給了他們第三種選擇，就是SOFR的選擇，比SOFR減2 50，而且SOFR一直在漲。所以它不像 6 個月前那樣有吸引力，但它是一種選擇，我們看到可能有一半的多戶家庭客戶選擇了這種選擇，我們喜歡這種選擇，從利率風險資產負債表管理的角度來看。但是要高得多的優惠券。我想我指出了商業方面，什麼是重新定價。但在 23 年，我們還有大約 25 億美元，多方約 3.88 億美元。如果你在接下來的 2 年內接受，它大約 - 但只是大約 60 億美元，但像 3 70、3 75 息票和市場收益率約為 6％，假設它們都進入 5 年結構，沒有做很多 7 年的任期。

Reluctant to do that as we look at the marketplace. And in general, I think people are sitting on the sidelines right now. So we're getting the benefit of repricing just from the optionality of them making a choice. And in very rare circumstances, you've seen in property transactions. So we're probably -- we could have a higher balance for longer because there's less activity. As indicated in my previous comments, there's very little economic in our internal forecast for prepayment activity.

當我們審視市場時，不願意這樣做。總的來說，我認為人們現在都在觀望。因此，我們只是從他們做出選擇的可選性中獲得了重新定價的好處。在極少數情況下，您已經在房地產交易中看到過。所以我們可能 - 我們可以在更長時間內保持更高的平衡，因為活動更少。正如我之前的評論所述，我們對預付款活動的內部預測幾乎沒有經濟意義。

I think we had probably 1 of our worst years last year. We still had a strong -- it was a record year on earnings. We had $46 million of prepay, going back to the high of about $140 million in previous years going back to 2013. So we have the opportunity here for a great economic if the marketplace changes. But we're assuming that it's going to be relatively benign. So we're not -- even on our first quarter guide, we said the prepayments are not going to be impactful in any meaningful way going forward in this current rate environment.

我認為去年我們可能度過了最糟糕的一年。我們仍然有一個強大的——這是創紀錄的一年。我們有 4600 萬美元的預付款，回到前幾年大約 1.4 億美元的高位，可以追溯到 2013 年。因此，如果市場發生變化，我們就有機會實現巨大的經濟增長。但我們假設它會相對溫和。所以我們不是 - 即使在我們的第一季度指南中，我們也說過在當前的利率環境下，預付款不會以任何有意義的方式產生影響。

Great. I appreciate that. And then on the spot rate on interest-bearing deposits at year-end, quarter end.

偉大的。我很感激。然後是年末、季末的有息存款即期利率。

Yes. At year-end, the spot rate on interest-bearing deposits is 2 17.

是的。年末計息存款即期利率為 2·17。

Matt, just 1 point. So I want to talk about some of the other lines of business. I mean we have a great builder finance business. That number is close to 400 spread off of repricing for SOFR indices. We have fees involved in those types of businesses. We have the warehouse business, that's a substantial spread in the 200 basis point spread. We look at that as a great opportunity because we know that business very well. We're very comfortable with that business. Clearly, a very attractive yielding business.

馬特，只有 1 分。所以我想談談其他一些業務。我的意思是我們有一個偉大的建築金融業務。這個數字接近 SOFR 指數重新定價的 400 個價差。我們在這些類型的業務中收取費用。我們有倉庫業務，這是 200 個基點價差中的一個很大的價差。我們認為這是一個很好的機會，因為我們非常了解該業務。我們對這項業務非常滿意。顯然，這是一個非常有吸引力的收益業務。

And we have other C&I businesses that are part of the legacy flex are coming over that we think we're going to grow very, very nicely on a combined basis. Those spreads are very high. They're not near what we are typically accustomed to their floating rate, they have fees. They have structure behind them, and they have very good incremental benefits to the margin, which is going to be a capital deployment opportunity in 2023 and beyond. That is the game change that we're putting together here. So we're not just that one bank that does one thing. So we have many, many verticals, with different opportunities. And we're going to be very cautious given the rate environment to deploy capital to ensure we have the best capital allocation story to talk about us as we build a new Flagstar.

我們還有其他 C&I 業務，它們是遺留彈性的一部分，我們認為我們將在合併的基礎上非常非常好地增長。這些點差非常高。他們不接近我們通常習慣的浮動利率，他們有費用。他們背後有結構，而且他們對利潤率有很好的增量收益，這將是 2023 年及以後的資本配置機會。這就是我們在這裡匯集的遊戲規則改變。因此，我們不僅僅是一家只做一件事的銀行。所以我們有很多很多垂直領域，有不同的機會。考慮到部署資本的利率環境，我們將非常謹慎，以確保我們在建立新的 Flagstar 時擁有最好的資本配置故事來談論我們。

No. Understood, Tom. I appreciate all that. I did want to also touch on the government as a service deposits. Just considered it comes in, in lumps, and then it sounds like, as it's spent, it winds down. Could you give us a sense for the pace of attrition on the government as a service deposits? And is it expected to roll off to a near 0 towards the end of the year? Or is this something that holds a residual balancing can grow off of that residual year-over-year?

不，明白，湯姆。我很感激這一切。我確實還想談談政府存款即服務。只是考慮到它是成塊地進來的，然後聽起來就像它用完了一樣，它逐漸消失了。您能否讓我們了解政府作為服務存款的消耗速度？預計到年底它會下降到接近 0 嗎？或者這是保持剩餘餘額的東西可以從剩餘的同比增長中增長嗎？

So I'm going to start. I'm going to defer to John. We've done a lot of work around on expectation and modeling and doing regression analysis on how this would react, and we actually have an experience with the stimulus payments and how long they held on the balance sheet, more than we expect. So we conservatively model it, which is in our model. So we had a large benefit in the fourth quarter that came from the California stimulus opportunity that we would have -- that have been provided for. It's holding better than expected. Probably it will be there for longer than expected, but we model it conservatively.

所以我要開始了。我要聽從約翰的意見。我們圍繞預期和建模做了很多工作，並對這將如何反應進行了回歸分析，我們實際上對刺激支付以及它們在資產負債表上的持有時間有更多的經驗，這比我們預期的要多。所以我們保守地建模，這是在我們的模型中。因此，我們在第四季度從加州的刺激機會中獲得了很大的好處——我們已經提供了這些機會。它的表現比預期的要好。它存在的時間可能比預期的要長，但我們對其進行了保守建模。

Ultimately, that will go down to a tail to a point, and John can give you some details on the tail. At the same time, we have other ones ramping up in 2023, although not the same type of program, there will be consistent with unemployment programs that we manage. We have a large relationship with Jersey and others. We just picked up a big win recently with California, which will be a substantial benefit for the bank once it gets geared up. But again, it's the timing of it, Matt. It could happen in Q2, Q3. It really is as quick as government gets it up and running, and we're ready to react. But it's been a good business for us, and there's some fees involved. But more importantly, the average cost of those liabilities are very low, near -- next to 0 in most cases. And John, if you want to talk about some of the...

最終，這將下降到一個點，John 可以為您提供有關尾巴的一些細節。與此同時，我們還有其他計劃在 2023 年推出，雖然不是同一類型的計劃，但將與我們管理的失業計劃一致。我們與澤西島和其他國家有著密切的關係。我們最近剛剛在加州取得了巨大的勝利，一旦銀行做好準備，這將是一個巨大的好處。但同樣，這是時機，馬特。它可能發生在第二季度、第三季度。它真的和政府啟動和運行一樣快，我們已經準備好做出反應。但這對我們來說是一筆好生意，而且涉及一些費用。但更重要的是，這些負債的平均成本非常低，在大多數情況下接近於零。約翰，如果你想談談一些......

Yes, we've tried to model it, it's been pretty close to the modeling we saw with the economic impact stimulus payments. So there is a tail that will sit around, But the bulk of the deposits do go pretty quickly. and then you have like a slow draw after that. So yes, we will have deposits. As of -- I would assume at the end of the year, I don't think it's going to be that material of a number by then. But the first quarter will still have a really nice average balance and then it will start to come down from there.

是的，我們已經嘗試對其建模，它與我們在經濟影響刺激支付中看到的模型非常接近。所以有一條尾巴會停在那裡，但大部分存款確實很快就會消失。在那之後你有一個緩慢的抽籤。所以是的，我們會有存款。截至 - 我假設在今年年底，我認為到那時它不會成為那個數字的材料。但第一季度的平均餘額仍然非常好，然後會開始下降。

Okay. Understood. And then what are the remaining onetime costs from the deal and the mortgage restructuring? And then could you give us a sense for timing throughout the year when they will be taken?

好的。明白了。那麼交易和抵押貸款重組剩餘的一次性成本是多少？然後你能告訴我們全年的時間安排嗎？

Well, let Lee talk about the mortgage restructure, and John will get into some guesstimates on what we think we're going to -- we have left. Go ahead, Lee?

好吧，讓李談談抵押貸款重組，約翰將對我們認為我們將要做什麼進行一些猜測——我們已經離開了。去吧，李?

Yes, sure. So the cost with the restructuring that we've just actioned, we estimate to be $12 million to $13 million, and that is predominantly severance. But as I mentioned earlier, there are some leases that we need to get out of, so there's some costs associated with that. There's a couple of contracts that we are also going to exit. We're going to isolate that as a restructuring charge, and we will take that in the first quarter.

是的，當然。因此，我們剛剛採取的重組成本估計為 1200 萬至 1300 萬美元，其中主要是遣散費。但正如我之前提到的，我們需要退出一些租約，因此會產生一些相關成本。我們也將退出一些合同。我們將把它作為重組費用分離出來，我們將在第一季度進行。

In addition, we probably need 60 days, that's what we're estimating, to work off the pipeline, those loans a lot that are not yet closed of those offices that we've closed down. So that will take us through the end of March. And that's why earlier I mentioned that even though you're going to start seeing cost savings starting in February, there is noise as a result of the onetime restructuring charge, the runoff of the pipeline and I expect us to have a real clean run rate beginning April 1.

此外，我們可能需要 60 天，這就是我們的估計，以完成管道工作，那些我們已經關閉的辦公室尚未關閉的貸款很多。因此，這將帶我們度過 3 月底。這就是為什麼我早些時候提到，即使從 2 月開始你會開始看到成本節約，但由於一次性重組費用、管道的流失而產生噪音，我希望我們有一個真正的清潔運行率從 4 月 1 日開始。

And then on the merger-related charges, we'll see some in the next couple of quarters when it comes to primarily severance and just some consulting work to get through the consolidation of the 2 companies. So you'll see that as well in the coming quarters. And then there'll be some charges when we get to Q1 of 2024 when we get to the conversion date.

然後在與合併相關的費用方面，我們將在接下來的幾個季度看到一些主要涉及遣散費和一些諮詢工作以完成兩家公司的合併。所以你也會在接下來的幾個季度看到這一點。然後到 2024 年第一季度，當我們到達轉換日期時，將會收取一些費用。

Got it. Okay. Last one from me. Just overall capital levels, tangible common equity at 6.4%. Your total risk-based capital ratio is sub-12. Should we be contemplating any sort of common equity raise or subdebt raise to bolster these ratios? That's all I had.

知道了。好的。我的最後一個。就總體資本水平而言，有形普通股權益為 6.4%。您的總風險資本比率低於 12。我們是否應該考慮通過任何形式的普通股融資或次級債務融資來提高這些比率？這就是我的全部。

Yes. Thanks, Matt. I think given where the capital ratios are and just given the credit nature of the 2 balance sheets, 2 legacy bank balance sheets and the limited risk really from a charge-off and a provisioning perspective, we're comfortable where the capital ratios are. With a common equity Tier 1 ratio over 9%, that's a good spot for us to be given the loss content in those portfolios. So it's something we're going to, of course, continue to manage. And we believe the best use of the capital right now is primarily dividends and, of course, the fund growth. And then going forward, we can look at other capital initiatives depending on market conditions.

是的。謝謝，馬特。我認為，考慮到資本比率以及 2 個資產負債表的信用性質、2 個遺留銀行資產負債表以及從沖銷和撥備角度來看的有限風險，我們對資本比率感到滿意。由於普通股 1 級比率超過 9%，這是我們了解這些投資組合中損失內容的好時機。因此，這當然是我們要繼續管理的事情。我們認為，目前對資本的最佳利用主要是分紅，當然還有基金增長。然後展望未來，我們可以根據市場情況考慮其他資本計劃。

Our next questions come from the line of Christopher Marinac with Janney.

我們的下一個問題來自 Christopher Marinac 和 Janney 的對話。

Tom and John, I have a similar question as Matt on the capital. So is the 9 06 likely grow from here? Or is there a scenario where it may dip a little bit as the balance sheet is considered quarter-to-quarter?

湯姆和約翰，關於首都，我有一個與馬特類似的問題。那麼 9 06 可能從這裡開始生長嗎？或者是否存在一種情況，即資產負債表被認為是按季度計算的，它可能會略有下降？

I think it will grow.

我認為它會增長。

Yes. I mean the goal is to grow, I mean, it depends a little bit. One of the things we look at when we put both companies together is there's a large portion of the assets, but even though they have really low loss content in them, including multifamily, mortgage warehouse, they're 100% risk-weighted assets. So we do have that, that we have to kind of work through from a capital perspective. But the goal is, over time, to ensure our capital ratios are where we want them to be in our capital target. So that's no doubt the plan.

是的。我的意思是目標是成長，我的意思是，這取決於一點點。當我們將兩家公司放在一起時，我們看到的一件事是資產的很大一部分，但即使它們的損失內容非常低，包括多戶家庭、抵押倉庫，它們也是 100% 的風險加權資產。所以我們確實有，我們必須從資本的角度來解決這個問題。但我們的目標是，隨著時間的推移，確保我們的資本比率達到我們希望它們在我們的資本目標中的水平。所以這無疑是計劃。

And obviously, we're planning strong earnings growth as well to obviously increase our capital position.

顯然，我們還計劃實現強勁的盈利增長，以明顯增加我們的資本狀況。

And then the last question...

然後最後一個問題...

Just to be clear, we've traded off capital for accretion on the adjustment given the changes in interest rates. So you're getting a lot -- as John indicated, benefit as far as the marks on the assets and liabilities. So that does have an impact. You get that back over time. So we think you'll see some nice earnings per share growth as well.

需要明確的是，考慮到利率的變化，我們已經用資本換取了調整的增長。所以你得到了很多 - 正如約翰所指出的那樣，就資產和負債的標記而言，受益匪淺。所以這確實有影響。隨著時間的推移，你會得到它。因此，我們認為您也會看到不錯的每股收益增長。

Got it. And then last question, John, just has to do with how the banking as a service and government as a Service reprices over time. Do you have to have an absolute Fed cut before you can lower those rates, thinking out just a couple of quarters from now?

知道了。最後一個問題，約翰，只與銀行即服務和政府即服務如何隨時間重新定價有關。在降低這些利率之前，你是否必須讓美聯儲絕對降息，並考慮從現在開始的幾個季度？

Well, the government as a service deposits are primarily noninterest-bearing, or if there are, they're really specific as to exactly what those costs would be. On the banking as a service deposits, to see big cuts, you probably have -- to see big drops in those rates, you probably have to see some Fed cuts, especially in this environment. But times change and sooner or later, the spreads can narrow a little bit on what you're paying for a lot of those products. But I think we have to start to see a Fed pivot before we start to see some significant savings there.

好吧，政府即服務存款主要是不計息的，或者如果有的話，它們確實具體說明了這些成本究竟是多少。在銀行即服務存款方面，要看到大幅削減，你可能不得不看到這些利率大幅下降，你可能必須看到美聯儲降息，尤其是在這種環境下。但時代變了，遲早，你為很多這些產品支付的價差會縮小一點。但我認為，在我們開始看到那裡有一些顯著的儲蓄之前，我們必須開始看到美聯儲的轉向。

Okay. And are those banking as a service sold by maybe 3/4 or 2/3 of the Fed moves? Is that about right?

好的。那些銀行即服務是否由美聯儲 3/4 或 2/3 的舉措出售？這樣說對嗎？

Yes. I mean they're a range. Some are 100% beta and some are in that 75% range. So on the banking as a service side, it's a range of what's tied to -- tied to the change.

是的。我的意思是它們是一個範圍。有些是 100% 的 beta，有些則在 75% 的範圍內。因此，在銀行即服務方面，它是一系列與變化相關的東西。

Our next questions come from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Sorry, I know it's been a long call. Just one question, Tom. I think you mentioned multiple times around being -- becoming a commercial bank, multiple expansion for the stock. Give us a sense of what you think this combined franchise as we look beyond systems conversion next year. Like if you have any sense of where you think the bank is from a ROTC, ROE perspective, what the franchise should be earning in a steady-state environment.

對不起，我知道這是一個漫長的電話。只有一個問題，湯姆。我想你曾多次提到——成為一家商業銀行，股票的多次擴張。讓我們了解您對這個合併特許經營權的看法，因為我們明年將超越系統轉換。就像如果您從 ROTC、ROE 的角度了解您認為銀行的位置，特許經營權在穩態環境中應該賺取多少。

Look, I mean this is obviously going to be a block and tackle year. We're super excited about putting these companies together. The rebranding effort that's going to take place. We are transitioning to some great technology that's going to really assist our customer base. As we move towards commercial banking, we've got to work a lot on the funding side. And the company is going to be -- historically over the past couple of years, and we're earning just under 15% TCE, we should be in the high teens.

看，我的意思是這顯然將是一個攔截和解決的一年。我們對將這些公司整合在一起感到非常興奮。將要進行的品牌重塑工作。我們正在過渡到一些偉大的技術，這些技術將真正幫助我們的客戶群。隨著我們轉向商業銀行業務，我們必須在資金方面做很多工作。公司將會——從過去幾年的歷史來看，我們的 TCE 收入略低於 15%，我們應該處於高位。

And I think the reality in the high teens on a traditional multiple perspective with return on assets well north of 1%, 1 10, 1 20-ish, over time, it's going to take some work here. But the reality is that the balance sheet has changed dramatically. If you think about the lines of businesses that we're going to have, the verticals that will be priced, very different than historical fixed-rate lender that had vulnerabilities to rising interest rates. So we want to be better balanced.

而且我認為，從傳統的多重角度來看，青少年的現實情況是資產回報率遠高於 1%、1 10、1 20-ish，隨著時間的推移，這裡需要做一些工作。但現實是資產負債表發生了巨大變化。如果你考慮一下我們將要擁有的業務線，將要定價的垂直領域，與歷史上容易受到利率上升影響的固定利率貸款人截然不同。所以我們想要更好地平衡。

At the same time, we're going to get our cost structure right. We have work to do and going back to '23 as a block and tackle year, and we look at '24 and hopefully a different rate environment, we'll be able to take advantage of a better funding mix. We're going to go after the deposit funding. If we move that positioning to having better funding as a core competency of our #1 priority, that will change multiple. We feel very strongly that mortgage, on a percentage basis, because the bank is much larger, will be less of a concentration on total income stream. So we want to have less dependency on mortgage, less dependency in wholesale finance. And we believe that will give us a better blended multiple.

與此同時，我們將調整成本結構。我們有工作要做，回到 23 年作為一個塊和鏟球年，我們著眼於 24 年，希望有一個不同的利率環境，我們將能夠利用更好的資金組合。我們將追求存款資金。如果我們將這一定位轉變為擁有更好的資金作為我們第一要務的核心競爭力，那將會改變很多。我們非常強烈地認為，按百分比計算的抵押貸款，因為銀行規模大得多，所以對總收入流的集中度較低。所以我們希望減少對抵押貸款的依賴，減少對批發融資的依賴。我們相信這會給我們帶來更好的混合倍數。

And multiple expansion is going to be key as we look at the transformation to a commercial bank. We have all the parts in place. It's going to take time to block and tackle, but we have the road map and the system conversion will be done in the first quarter of '24. At the same time, we're going to be rolling out the verticals, proving to the marketplace that we're allocating capital to different lines of businesses that are better margin businesses. And now at the point, as a company, we're looking at loan by loan detail on a total return basis, and we'll allocate capital accordingly.

當我們著眼於向商業銀行轉型時，多重擴張將成為關鍵。我們已經準備好所有零件。阻止和解決需要時間，但我們有路線圖，系統轉換將在 24 年第一季度完成。與此同時，我們將推出垂直領域，向市場證明我們正在將資金分配給利潤率更高的不同業務線。現在，作為一家公司，我們正在以總回報為基礎逐筆查看貸款細節，我們將相應地分配資本。

And that's something very different when you have choice now. We have choice on a combined basis where, historically, we had limited choices when we had our business model. So we're excited about the business model. We think we have a great story to tell. This has been a long time and waiting, a lot of planning. And we're super excited about launching out the new Flagstar, the new brand.

當你現在有選擇時，這是非常不同的。我們可以在綜合基礎上進行選擇，從歷史上看，當我們擁有自己的商業模式時，我們的選擇是有限的。所以我們對商業模式感到興奮。我們認為我們有一個很棒的故事要講。這是一個漫長的等待，很多計劃。我們對推出新品牌 Flagstar 感到非常興奮。

Thank you. That is all the time we have for our question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand the call back over to management for any closing comments.

謝謝你。這是我們問答環節的全部時間。我現在想將電話轉回給管理層，徵求任何結束意見。

Thank you again for taking the time to join us this morning and for your interest in NYCB. We are creating a unique, multifaceted financial services organization that will no longer be reliant on any one particular line of business with a very exciting future. Thank you all.

再次感謝您今天早上抽出時間加入我們並對 NYCB 感興趣。我們正在創建一個獨特的、多方面的金融服務組織，它將不再依賴於任何一個具有非常令人興奮的未來的特定業務線。謝謝你們。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We do appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們非常感謝您的參與。您此時可以斷開線路，享受接下來的一天。