Flagstar Financial Inc (NYCB) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. This is Sal DiMartino, and I'd like to thank you for joining the management team of New York Community for today's conference call.

大家，早安。我是 Sal DiMartino，我要感謝您加入紐約社區的管理團隊參加今天的電話會議。

Today's discussion of the company's third quarter 2022 results will be led by Chairman, President and CEO, Thomas Cangemi; joined by Chief Operating Officer, Robert Wann; and the company's Chief Financial Officer, John Pinto. Joining them on the call will be Sandro DiNello, President and CEO of Flagstar; and Lee Smith, President of Flagstar Mortgage.

今天關於公司 2022 年第三季度業績的討論將由董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Thomas Cangemi 主持；首席運營官羅伯特·萬恩加入；和公司的首席財務官約翰平托。 Flagstar 總裁兼首席執行官 Sandro DiNello 將與他們一起參加電話會議；和 Flagstar Mortgage 總裁 Lee Smith。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that certain comments made today by the management team of New York Community may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements we may make are subject to the safe harbor rules. Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and safe harbor language in today's press release and presentation for more information about risks and uncertainties, which may affect us.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，紐約社區管理團隊今天發表的某些評論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。我們可能會在make 受安全港規則的約束。請查看今天新聞稿和演示文稿中的前瞻性免責聲明和安全港語言，以獲取有關可能影響我們的風險和不確定性的更多信息。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Cangemi.

現在我想把電話轉給 Cangemi 先生。

Thank you, Sal. Good morning to everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss our third quarter 2022 performance. Before diving into the quarterly results and in anticipation of questions, I just want to say that neither New York Community nor Flagstar is going to comment on or address any questions regarding our pending merger on today's conference call.

謝謝你，薩爾。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們討論我們 2022 年第三季度的業績。在深入了解季度業績和預期問題之前，我只想說，紐約社區和 Flagstar 都不會在今天的電話會議上評論或解決有關我們未決合併的任何問題。

With that being said, let's turn now to our third quarter results. Overall, the company had a solid third quarter. Despite aggressive Fed tightening and an inverted yield curve, still, we produced solid loan and deposit growth, lower operating expenses and continued strong levels of asset quality, which remains our hallmark.

話雖如此，讓我們現在轉向我們的第三季度業績。總體而言，該公司第三季度表現穩健。儘管美聯儲積極收緊政策和收益率曲線倒掛，但我們仍實現了穩健的貸款和存款增長、較低的運營費用和持續強勁的資產質量水平，這仍然是我們的標誌。

In terms of the net interest margin, given our liability-sensitive balance sheet, not surprisingly, we witnessed margin compression during the quarter. However, we still reported diluted earnings per share of $0.31, excluding merger-related expenses. This was unchanged compared to the third quarter of last year and in line with consensus.

就淨息差而言，鑑於我們對負債敏感的資產負債表，毫不奇怪，我們在本季度目睹了利潤率壓縮。但是，我們仍報告每股攤薄收益 0.31 美元，不包括與合併相關的費用。這與去年第三季度相比沒有變化，符合共識。

Turning now to the main drivers of our quarterly performance. At the -- 3 consecutive quarters of double-digit loan growth, loan growth moderated as expected. Total loans held for investment rose nearly $450 million during the quarter to $49 billion compared to the previous quarter. Year-to-date, total loans held for investments are now up $3.2 billion or at 9% annualized.

現在轉向我們季度業績的主要驅動因素。在貸款連續三個季度兩位數增長的情況下，貸款增長如預期放緩。與上一季度相比，本季度持有的投資貸款總額增加了近 4.5 億美元，達到 490 億美元。年初至今，為投資而持有的貸款總額現已增加 32 億美元，年化增長率為 9%。

Loan growth continues to be centered on the multi-family specialty finance portfolios. At September 30, the multi-family portfolio totaled $37.2 billion, representing strong growth both on a year-to-date and a linked-quarter basis. Multi-family loans increased $407 million sequentially and $2.6 billion or 10% annualized since the beginning of this year.

貸款增長繼續以多戶專業金融組合為中心。截至 9 月 30 日，多戶家庭投資組合總額為 372 億美元，在年初至今和相關季度的基礎上均實現了強勁增長。自今年年初以來，多戶家庭貸款環比增長 4.07 億美元，年化增長率為 26 億美元或 10%。

We continue to take market share in the multi-family space. A recent survey by S&P Global Market Intelligence ranked NYCB as the second largest multi-family portfolio lender nationally. And we believe we are, by far, the largest multi-family portfolio lender in our nonluxury, rent-regulated lending niche in the New York City market.

我們繼續在多戶家庭領域佔據市場份額。 S&P Global Market Intelligence 最近的一項調查將 NYCB 列為全國第二大多戶家庭投資組合貸款人。我們相信，到目前為止，我們是紐約市市場上非奢侈品、租金監管的貸款利基市場中最大的多戶家庭投資組合貸款人。

Specialty finance loans also continued to increase, up $117 million to $4.3 billion compared to the previous quarter and up $755 million or 29% annualized, so far, in 2022. As of the third quarter, specialty finance had total commitments of $7.3 billion, up 11%, compared to $6.6 billion at the end of the second quarter. Of the current third quarter amount, 78% or approximately $5.7 billion are structured as floating rate obligations, tied to either prime or SOFR, which have and will continue to benefit the company in a rising interest rate environment.

專業金融貸款也繼續增加，與上一季度相比增加 1.17 億美元，達到 43 億美元，到 2022 年為止，年化增長 7.55 億美元或 29%。截至第三季度，專業金融的總承諾額為 73 億美元，同比增長11%，而第二季度末為 66 億美元。在當前第三季度的金額中，78% 或約 57 億美元是浮動利率債務，與主要或 SOFR 掛鉤，在利率上升的環境中已經並將繼續使公司受益。

I would also point out that, as of the end of the third quarter, we had approximately $7.4 billion of multi-family and CRE loans, which come up onto their contractual maturity or option repricing date over the next 2 years. This includes multi-family loans with an average weighted average coupon of 3.74%, $5.7 billion and $1.7 billion of CRE loans with an average weighted average coupon of 3.2%.

我還要指出，截至第三季度末，我們有大約 74 億美元的多戶和 CRE 貸款，這些貸款在未來 2 年的合同到期或期權重新定價日期到期。這包括平均加權平均息票率為 3.74% 的多戶貸款、57 億美元和 17 億美元的平均加權平均息票率為 3.2% 的 CRE 貸款。

Going forward, our loan yields should benefit from lower coupon [market] pricing to higher current market rates. In terms of this pipeline, as we head into the fourth quarter, it stands at a robust $2.3 billion compared to $2.5 billion in the previous quarter. Of this amount, 87% represents new money to the bank.

展望未來，我們的貸款收益率應受益於較低的票面 [市場] 定價和較高的當前市場利率。就這條管道而言，當我們進入第四季度時，它達到了強勁的 23 億美元，而上一季度為 25 億美元。其中，87% 是銀行的新資金。

On the liability front, we also grew our deposits during the quarter. Despite higher interest rates, which led to outflows in certain categories, total deposits increased $461 million compared to the previous quarter and have increased $6.6 billion or 25% annualized, so far, during 2022 to nearly $42 billion.

在負債方面，我們在本季度也增加了存款。儘管利率上升導致某些類別的資金流出，但總存款與上一季度相比增加了 4.61 億美元，到目前為止，2022 年期間已增加 66 億美元或 25% 的年增長率，達到近 420 億美元。

As you've heard me discuss many times over the past 18 months, the focus is on and will continue to be on deposit gathering. Last year, we re-emphasized bringing in more deposits from our borrowers, and we also launched our Banking as a Service initiative. We are pleased with the success we have gotten with those 2 programs and expect they will continue to be primary drivers of our deposit growth going forward.

正如您在過去 18 個月中多次聽到我討論的那樣，重點是並將繼續放在存款收集上。去年，我們再次強調從借款人那裡吸收更多存款，我們還推出了銀行即服務計劃。我們對這兩個項目所取得的成功感到高興，並預計它們將繼續成為我們未來存款增長的主要驅動力。

On a year-to-date basis, loan-related deposits were up just under $800 million or 26% annualized since we started refocusing on this deposit channel. During the first quarter of 2021, total loan-related deposits have increased $1.3 billion or about 37%. Additionally, business operating accounts are 32% of total loan-related deposits.

自我們開始重新關注這一存款渠道以來，年初至今，與貸款相關的存款增加了不到 8 億美元，年化增長率為 26%。 2021 年第一季度，與貸款相關的存款總額增加了 13 億美元，增幅約為 37%。此外，企業經營賬戶佔貸款相關存款總額的 32%。

Banking as a Service deposits totaled $7.9 billion at third quarter 2022. Our BaaS deposits fall generally into 3 verticals: traditional BaaS, which totals $5.3 billion in deposits; mortgage as a service, which caters to mortgage banking and servicing companies, totaling $2 billion; and government banking as a service, which caters to states and municipalities as well as the U.S. Treasury's preloaded debit card program, totaling $579 million.

截至 2022 年第三季度，銀行即服務存款總額為 79 億美元。我們的 BaaS 存款通常分為 3 個垂直領域：傳統 BaaS，存款總額為 53 億美元；抵押即服務，為抵押銀行和服務公司提供服務，總額為 20 億美元；和政府銀行即服務，為各州和市政府以及美國財政部的預載借記卡計劃提供服務，總額為 5.79 億美元。

Mortgage as a service and government as a service are 2 verticals expected to drive current growth within the overall Banking as a Service segment. Recently, the company won 2 new BaaS mandates. Both of these should result in fee income and deposit growth opportunities for the company.

抵押即服務和政府即服務是兩個垂直領域，預計將推動整個銀行即服務領域的當前增長。最近，該公司贏得了兩項新的 BaaS 授權。這兩者都應該為公司帶來手續費收入和存款增長機會。

Moving on to one of the company's hallmarks: credit. Our asset quality and credit trends remain superb and continue to rank the company as among the best in the industry. Nonperforming assets totaled $50 million, down $6 million compared to $56 million in the prior quarter and were 8 basis points of total assets. Additionally, we recorded 0 net charge-offs during the current third quarter compared to $7 million of net recoveries last quarter. The strong asset quality metrics reflect our conservative underwriting practices and historically low level of losses in our core portfolios.

繼續討論公司的標誌之一：信用。我們的資產質量和信用趨勢保持良好，並繼續將公司列為行業中的佼佼者。不良資產總額為 5,000 萬美元，比上一季度的 5,600 萬美元減少 600 萬美元，佔總資產的 8 個基點。此外，我們在當前第三季度記錄了 0 次淨沖銷，而上一季度的淨回收為 700 萬美元。強勁的資產質量指標反映了我們保守的承保做法以及我們核心投資組合的歷史低水平損失。

Before moving on to the next topic, I'd like to provide a brief update on the New York City real estate environment. New York City residential real estate remains healthy, and commercial real estate continues to gradually improve. Monthly median rents for Manhattan multi-family apartments jumped 21% year-over-year to about $4,000, so the third highest on record. Median rents appear to have stabilized at record high levels as well.

在繼續下一個主題之前，我想簡要介紹一下紐約市房地產環境的最新情況。紐約市住宅地產保持健康，商業地產繼續逐步改善。曼哈頓多戶型公寓的月租金中位數同比增長 21% 至約 4,000 美元，是有記錄以來的第三高。租金中位數似乎也穩定在創紀錄的高位。

Turning now to the commercial side. Average retail asking rents in Manhattan recorded a quarterly uptick, rising for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2016. Manhattan third quarter 2022 office leasing surged to a post-pandemic high. This was driven by several large relocations and the continuing fight to quality trend, particularly in Midtown. Also, the Manhattan availability rate decreased at 18.4%, with positive absorption for the first time in 12 quarters.

現在轉向商業方面。曼哈頓的平均零售要價錄得季度上升，這是自 2016 年第四季度以來的首次上升。曼哈頓 2022 年第三季度的寫字樓租賃飆升至大流行後的高位。這是由幾次大型搬遷和對質量趨勢的持續鬥爭推動的，特別是在中城。此外，曼哈頓的可用率下降了 18.4%，12 個季度以來首次出現正吸收。

New York City office occupancy increased in September likely due to many large companies urging their employees to return to office. Similarly, there was a significant increase in MTA ridership, seated diners in New York City, evidence in continuing strength in New York City economic activity. Each of these drivers are evidence of continuing strength in the New York City economy.

由於許多大公司敦促員工重返辦公室，紐約市辦公室 9 月份的入住率可能有所增加。同樣，紐約市的 MTA 乘客人數和就餐人數也顯著增加，這表明紐約市的經濟活動持續強勁。這些驅動因素中的每一個都是紐約市經濟持續強勁的證據。

Moving on now to the income statement. Third quarter net interest income totaled $326 million, up $8 million or 3% on a year-over-year basis. Excluding the impact from prepayment penalty income, net interest income on a non-GAAP basis increased $14 million or 5% to $360 million on a year-over-year basis. In terms of the net interest margin, excluding the impact from prepayments, third quarter NIM declined 23 basis points on a linked-quarter basis at 2.15%. This was due to a higher cost of funds given aggressive Fed policy tightening.

現在轉到損益表。第三季度淨利息收入總計 3.26 億美元，同比增長 800 萬美元或 3%。排除預付款罰款收入的影響，按非公認會計原則計算的淨利息收入同比增長 1400 萬美元或 5%，達到 3.6 億美元。剔除預付款影響的淨息差方面，第三季度淨息差環比下降 23 個基點至 2.15%。這是由於美聯儲積極收緊政策導致資金成本上升。

On the expense front, our noninterest expense remained in check despite continuing to make investments. Noninterest expense totaled $136 million during the third quarter, which includes $4 million of merger-related expenses. Excluding this item, operating expenses were $132 million, down $2 million compared to the previous quarter and up 2% on a year-over-year basis.

在費用方面，儘管繼續進行投資，我們的非利息費用仍然受到控制。第三季度的非利息費用總計 1.36 億美元，其中包括 400 萬美元的合併相關費用。不計此項，運營費用為 1.32 億美元，比上一季度減少 200 萬美元，同比增長 2%。

At yesterday's meeting, the Board of Directors declared a $0.17 dividend on our common shares. The dividend will be paid on November 17 to common shareholders of record as of November 7. Based on yesterday's closing stock price, this translates into an annualized dividend yield of 7.6%.

在昨天的會議上，董事會宣布對我們的普通股派發 0.17 美元的股息。股息將於 11 月 17 日支付給截至 11 月 7 日登記在冊的普通股股東。根據昨天的收盤價，這意味著年化股息收益率為 7.6%。

With that, we will be happy to answer any questions you may have. We will do our very best to get all of you within the time remaining. But if we don't, please feel free to call us later today or during the week. Operator, please open the line for questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您可能有的任何問題。我們將盡最大努力在剩餘的時間內讓你們所有人。但如果我們不這樣做，請隨時在今天晚些時候或一周內給我們打電話。接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess, first, maybe let's start with the margin outlook in terms of what you expect to happen in the third -- in the fourth quarter. And give us some color around, if you could, your views around, one, where you see the margin [troughing] if you assume the forward curve plays out as is over the next few quarters? And then anything in terms of the BaaS deposits that helps you mitigate that margin pressure. So -- yes.

我想，首先，也許讓我們從你預計第三季度——第四季度會發生什麼的利潤率展望開始。如果可以的話，給我們一些顏色，你的觀點，一個，如果你假設未來曲線在接下來的幾個季度中表現出來，你會看到邊際[低谷]？然後是任何可以幫助您減輕保證金壓力的 BaaS 存款。所以——是的。

Sure, Ebrahim. I'm going to pass on the question on the margin to our CFO, Mr. Pinto. John?

當然，易卜拉欣。我將把空白處的問題轉給我們的首席財務官平托先生。約翰？

Yes. On the margin front, when we look at the fourth quarter, what we expect -- and we'll talk about it in really 2 different ways, right? If we assume the Flagstar deal would have closed on October 1, we'll look at what the impact of that transaction would be. So when you look at where we start from the third quarter, ex prepay at 2.15%, we would be up 40 basis points in the fourth quarter. That's our forecast with Flagstar closing on October 1.

是的。在利潤方面，當我們看第四季度時，我們的預期是什麼——我們會用兩種不同的方式來討論它，對吧？如果我們假設 Flagstar 交易將於 10 月 1 日完成，我們將看看該交易的影響。因此，當您查看我們從第三季度開始的情況時，預付利率為 2.15%，我們將在第四季度上漲 40 個基點。這是我們對 Flagstar 將於 10 月 1 日收盤時的預測。

Exclusive of Flagstar, we expect the margin, ex prepay, to be around 1.95%. So down 20 basis points on a stand-alone basis, slightly better than what we did in the third quarter. So the impact of Flagstar for the fourth quarter, we're looking at a 60 basis point benefit when you look at margin, ex prepay.

除 Flagstar 外，我們預計除預付款外的保證金約為 1.95%。因此，單獨下降 20 個基點，略好於我們在第三季度的表現。因此，Flagstar 對第四季度的影響，當您查看預付款前的保證金時，我們會看到 60 個基點的收益。

For the BaaS deposits, when we talk about the BaaS deposits, as we talked about on the last couple of calls, they are primarily floating rate, right? And they have high betas, especially the mortgage as a service deposits. Their beta is very close to 100%. The other deposits are a little less than that when you look at some of the other Banking as a Service deposits that we've brought in.

對於 BaaS 存款，當我們談到 BaaS 存款時，正如我們在最近幾次電話會議中談到的那樣，它們主要是浮動利率，對吧？而且他們的貝塔係數很高，尤其是抵押即服務存款。他們的測試版非常接近 100%。當您查看我們引入的其他一些銀行即服務存款時，其他存款要少一些。

So we're monitoring that. The goal is, of course, to bring other operating accounts tied to those and continue to build out those relationships, and also to build out the government as a deposit relationship. So that's where the benefit, hopefully, we're going to see when those deposits start to come in because those are noninterest-bearing deposits.

所以我們正在監控它。當然，目標是讓其他運營賬戶與這些賬戶相關聯並繼續建立這些關係，並將政府建設為存款關係。所以這就是好處，希望我們能看到這些存款何時開始出現，因為這些存款是無息存款。

Ebrahim, it's Tom. I'd just add that, that has started. We were awarded a very significant government as a service contract we kicked in at the end of October. That is going to be significant as we go into the period ahead. In addition to that, we have a number of wins on the government side that starts to kick in, in addition to that in 2023. So we're excited about the impact of that because that is all zero-cost deposits.

易卜拉欣，是湯姆。我只是補充一點，這已經開始了。我們在 10 月底簽訂了一份非常重要的政府服務合同。隨著我們進入未來時期，這將是重要的。除此之外，除了 2023 年之外，我們還在政府方面取得了一些勝利，這些勝利開始發揮作用。所以我們對它的影響感到興奮，因為這都是零成本存款。

And John, just going back to your 1.95% margin outlook, ex prepay, do you expect the cost of deposit increase that we saw this quarter to accelerate next quarter? Or because of some of these deposit dynamics, we expect that to be a little more tempered versus the third quarter increase?

約翰，回到你 1.95% 的保證金前景，預付前，你是否預計我們本季度看到的存款成本增加會在下個季度加速？或者由於其中一些存款動態，我們預計與第三季度的增長相比會有所緩和？

Yes. I mean, we saw that the third quarter was difficult from a deposit beta perspective, no doubt. We expect, with these government deposits to come in, that, that will get a little bit better or hopefully stabilize at those -- at that third quarter level.

是的。我的意思是，毫無疑問，從存款貝塔的角度來看，我們看到第三季度是困難的。我們預計，隨著這些政府存款的到來，情況會好一些，或者有望穩定在第三季度的水平。

Got it. And I guess, just one question. I appreciate, Tom, what you mentioned about the deal upfront. But clearly, you still think it's -- you still expect to close the deal based on what John said and what you have in your slide deck. Given the change in the macro, has anything changed from your perspective, and I'm not sure if anyone from Flagstar is on the line, that would make you think differently about the strategic merits of the deal today or November 1 versus when the deal was announced?

知道了。我猜，只有一個問題。湯姆，我很欣賞你前面提到的交易。但很明顯，您仍然認為它是 - 您仍然希望根據約翰所說的以及您在幻燈片中的內容完成交易。鑑於宏觀的變化，從你的角度來看有什麼變化，我不確定是否有來自 Flagstar 的人在線，這會讓你對今天或 11 月 1 日交易的戰略價值有不同的看法。被宣布？

Right. Let me be clear. My opening comments are relatively clear. We're not going to speak specifically about the pending merger. However, as far as going back to our discussion of the transaction itself, we're very comfortable that this business combination is a powerful opportunity for companies to come together and build a Newco that has good diversity, a tremendous and unique opportunity on the deposit side and funding and give us an opportunity to transition a thrift commercial to a commercial banking enterprise.

正確的。讓我說清楚。我的開場白比較清楚。我們不會具體談論即將進行的合併。然而，回到我們對交易本身的討論，我們很高興這次業務合併是一個強大的機會，可以讓公司走到一起，建立一個具有良好多樣性的新公司，一個巨大而獨特的存款機會邊和資金，讓我們有機會將節儉的商業轉變為商業銀行企業。

We're excited about that. I'm not going to be specific about the transaction itself. But clearly, when we came out with this partnership, and I know Sandro and Lee are on the line, we were very, very positive about the concept of putting these balance sheets together. Sandro, did you want to add anything? Sandro?

我們對此感到興奮。我不會具體說明交易本身。但很明顯，當我們建立這種夥伴關係時，我知道 Sandro 和 Lee 已經上線，我們對將這些資產負債表放在一起的概念非常非常積極。桑德羅，你想補充什麼嗎？桑德羅？

Did you reference me, Tom?

你提到我了嗎，湯姆？

I know they referenced if you're on the line. Yes, Sandro and Lee are on the line. But Sandro, by all means, feel free.

我知道如果您在線，他們會參考。是的，Sandro 和 Lee 在線。但是桑德羅，無論如何，感覺自由。

Yes, sure. Thanks, Tom, and thanks for the question, Ebrahim. Look, if this was Flagstar's earnings call, I would start out by telling you that it's the best quarter we've ever had. Not the most profitable quarter, but the best quarter because if you look at our margin, 9 years ago, it was under 2% and virtually all of our income came from mortgage. Our margin now is over 4%, with the far majority of it coming from banking.

是的，當然。謝謝，湯姆，謝謝你的問題，易卜拉欣。看，如果這是 Flagstar 的財報電話會議，我會首先告訴你這是我們有史以來最好的季度。不是最賺錢的季度，而是最好的季度，因為如果你看看我們 9 年前的利潤率，它不到 2%，而且我們幾乎所有的收入都來自抵押貸款。我們現在的利潤率超過 4%，其中大部分來自銀行業。

We've got a high-quality loan portfolio. We've got efficient funding. And while much smaller due to market conditions, we're still profitable in our mortgage business, where many originators are not. And that mortgage business will be there to take full advantage of the next refinancing market, which will come. We don't know when, but it will come. And on top of all that, we have a very formidable servicing business.

我們擁有高質量的貸款組合。我們有有效的資金。雖然由於市場條件的原因要小得多，但我們在抵押貸款業務中仍然有利可圖，而許多發起人卻沒有。抵押貸款業務將充分利用即將到來的下一個再融資市場。我們不知道什麼時候，但它會來的。最重要的是，我們擁有非常強大的服務業務。

And when you look at our expenses, we've been able to manage them to revenues. Our efficiency ratios have declined pretty significantly. So if given the opportunity, getting back to your question, combining this company with NYCB, taking what they do well, running the similar playbook that we've run as we rebuilt Flagstar, I'm excited about our ability to produce something very, very special going forward.

當您查看我們的費用時，我們已經能夠將它們管理為收入。我們的效率比已經顯著下降。因此，如果有機會，回到你的問題，將這家公司與 NYCB 結合起來，利用他們做得好的地方，運行我們在重建 Flagstar 時運行的類似劇本，我對我們生產一些東西的能力感到非常興奮，非常特別的前進。

And just one, Sandro, since you mentioned it was one of the best quarters for Flagstar. Pardon my lack of familiarity, but it sounds like your outlook for margin is relatively flat next quarter versus this quarter. Is that implying that margin has peaked through the cycle?

只有一個，桑德羅，因為你提到它是旗星最好的宿舍之一。請原諒我不熟悉，但聽起來您對下個季度的利潤率前景與本季度相比相對持平。這是否意味著利潤率已在整個週期中達到頂峰？

Well, Ebrahim, what we -- how we try to structure our balance sheet, viewing ourselves as an independent organization, is we feel very comfortable with the 4% margin with our business model. So given what we believe we can get out of mortgage in this environment, what we believe we can get out of servicing in this environment and the servicing piece of it is pretty certain and 4% margin on top of a clean loan book, I think the bottom line number feels really good.

好吧，易卜拉欣，我們如何嘗試構建資產負債表，將自己視為一個獨立的組織，我們對我們商業模式的 4% 利潤率感到非常滿意。因此，鑑於我們認為我們可以在這種環境下擺脫抵押貸款，我們相信我們可以在這種環境下擺脫服務，並且服務部分是非常確定的，並且在乾淨的貸款賬簿之上有 4% 的保證金，我認為底線數字感覺非常好。

So at this point, I think the challenge is managing the betas on the deposit side in a way that doesn't compromise the margin going forward because there's going to be margin pressure, and there's no question about it. But I think that we're very comfortable at Flagstar that we can hang in there in that 4% range going forward.

所以在這一點上，我認為挑戰在於以一種不會影響未來保證金的方式管理存款方面的貝塔，因為會有保證金壓力，這是毫無疑問的。但我認為我們在 Flagstar 非常舒服，我們可以在 4% 的範圍內保持穩定。

So that's my outlook. And I mean, we only give you outlook for the next quarter, but we're confident about that, at least, for the next quarter. And I think, overall, as I said, given our business model, that's a margin that works very well for us.

這就是我的看法。我的意思是，我們只為您提供下一季度的展望，但我們對此至少對下一季度充滿信心。而且我認為，總的來說，正如我所說，鑑於我們的商業模式，這對我們來說非常有效。

Our next question comes from the line of Bernard Von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Bernard Von Gizycki。

So my first question is, so you still had good growth in the multi-family portfolio. But as you noted, it moderated, but it seems in line with expectations. I'm just wondering, with rates continuing to rise, is there a level of rates where that couldn't drive growth to peers who might be pricing maybe a bit more aggressively like the agencies?

所以我的第一個問題是，你在多戶家庭投資組合中仍然有良好的增長。但正如你所指出的，它有所緩和，但似乎符合預期。我只是想知道，隨著利率繼續上漲，是否存在不能推動同行增長的利率水平，這些同行可能像代理商一樣定價可能更激進一些？

It's interesting. It's been a very interesting pipeline going into Q4. Q3 is typically a seasonality quarter for us. Q4 pipeline is relatively strong. The coupon is extremely strong, given the -- I mean, if you look on a year-over-year comparison basis, we're going from a 3% market to a 6% market overnight, which is powerful towards repricing this book of business.

這真有趣。進入第四季度是一個非常有趣的管道。第三季度對我們來說通常是一個季節性季度。 Q4管道比較強勁。優惠券非常強大，考慮到-我的意思是，如果您按年進行比較，我們將在一夜之間從 3% 的市場變為 6% 的市場，這對重新定價商業。

So we anticipated moderate growth in the second half of 2022. We probably grew a little bit better than we expected as we go into the pipeline. So our overall net loan growth for the year it's still going to come in around 8% to 9.5%. So even if we're at the consistent level of third quarter, which is unlikely, given fourth quarter activity typically is a robust activity, in general, coming off of a seasonality quarter of Q3.

因此，我們預計 2022 年下半年將出現溫和增長。隨著我們進入管道，我們的增長可能比我們預期的要好一些。因此，我們今年的整體淨貸款增長仍將保持在 8% 至 9.5% 左右。因此，即使我們處於第三季度的穩定水平（這不太可能），考慮到第四季度的活動通常是強勁的活動，一般來說，它是在第三季度的季節性季度之後出現的。

So it's been an interesting opportunity here, given where the agencies are today, where the shape of the curve is. And I think, in general, most portfolio lenders are getting good economics. And I think the opportunity here is moving that coupon from the low 3s to the market, which is significantly higher than low 3s.

所以這是一個有趣的機會，考慮到機構今天的位置，曲線的形狀。而且我認為，總的來說，大多數投資組合貸款人的經濟狀況都很好。我認為這裡的機會是將優惠券從低 3s 轉移到市場，這明顯高於低 3s。

So we're excited about what's coming due. We've offered some unique options for our customers that are going into the repricing period. And we're trying to move our balance sheet to more interest rate risk -- to an interest rate risk compatible towards getting away from liability sensitivity to asset sensitivity.

所以我們對即將發生的事情感到興奮。我們為即將進入重新定價期的客戶提供了一些獨特的選擇。我們正試圖將我們的資產負債表轉向更多的利率風險——轉向與擺脫負債敏感性與資產敏感性相適應的利率風險。

And offering SOFR options has been a well-received option for our customers, and it seems like a high percentage of those customers are opting for a SOFR option. And we'll then -- we'll work on moving our balance sheet to more asset sensitivity. I think that sets us very well to look at this large book of business towards more of a SOFR option in a rising rate environment.

對於我們的客戶來說，提供 SOFR 選項一直是一個廣受歡迎的選項，而且這些客戶中似乎有很大一部分選擇了 SOFR 選項。然後我們將 - 我們將努力將我們的資產負債表轉移到更高的資產敏感性。我認為這使我們能夠很好地看待這本大型商業書籍，以便在利率上升的環境中更多地選擇 SOFR。

And as far as the agency is concerned, I think, in the long run, as we focus on merger plans, we're going to have a capital markets tool that will allow us to be more competitive. We're going to be able to offer an option that could compete on a derivative perspective to do long-term financing and take those fixed rate loans and swap them out to floating rate.

就該機構而言，我認為，從長遠來看，當我們專注於合併計劃時，我們將擁有一個資本市場工具，這將使我們更具競爭力。我們將能夠提供一種選擇，可以從衍生產品的角度進行競爭，以進行長期融資，並將這些固定利率貸款換成浮動利率。

So I think that's going to be another competitive opportunity on the benefits of the merger. So we're looking forward to the capital markets benefit. And that also comes with some fee income opportunity as well.

因此，我認為這將是合併收益的另一個競爭機會。所以我們期待資本市場受益。這也帶來了一些收費收入機會。

So we're still very, very bullish about valuations and sponsorships, but we're also cognizant that things have slowed down because of substantial interest rate increases that happened in such a short period of time. Going from 3% in the beginning of the year to 6% at the market is a big move. So we should benefit on repricing the portfolio, which could really bode well for future margin benefits.

因此，我們仍然非常非常看好估值和讚助，但我們也認識到，由於在如此短的時間內發生的大幅加息，事情已經放緩。從年初的 3% 到市場上的 6% 是一個很大的舉措。因此，我們應該從重新定價投資組合中受益，這對未來的利潤收益來說確實是個好兆頭。

Okay. Great. I appreciate that color. And obviously, I understand about the commentary on the pending deal. But I was just wondering, recently you filed some S-4s and you provided a better snapshot of some of the assumptions from the time of the deal announcement to 3/31 and 6/30 of this year. I was just wondering, could you provide us any updates on your tangible book value or earnings accretion estimates? Or anything you can comment on that?

好的。偉大的。我很欣賞那種顏色。顯然，我了解有關待定交易的評論。但我只是想知道，最近您提交了一些 S-4，並且您提供了從交易宣布之時到今年 3/31 和 6/30 的一些假設的更好快照。我只是想知道，您能否向我們提供有關您的有形賬面價值或收益增值估計的任何更新？或者你可以對此發表評論嗎？

John?

約翰？

Yes. So when we announced the deal on the tangible book value side, we're at 3.5% accretive. When we looked at it, and we talked about it in June, that tangible book accretion jumped pretty dramatically. It's almost probably 8% or 9%. Our estimate now is at 9/30, it's come back down around that 4% level, and it's really just due to the purchase accounting adjustments given the changes in interest rates. But it's highly dependent on where those -- where interest rates are at the day of closing. So that's where we look at it. We're still probably right around that same level, a little better than when we originally anticipated the deal.

是的。因此，當我們宣布有形賬面價值方面的交易時，我們的增值率為 3.5%。當我們看到它並在 6 月份談論它時，有形的書籍增長非常顯著。它幾乎可能是 8% 或 9%。我們現在的估計是 9/30，它已經回落到 4% 左右的水平，這實際上只是由於利率變化導致的採購會計調整。但這在很大程度上取決於收盤日的利率在哪裡。這就是我們看待它的地方。我們可能仍處於同一水平，比我們最初預期的交易要好一點。

Okay. Got it. That 4% you said is as of 9/30?

好的。知道了。你說的那 4% 是截至 9/30 的？

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dave Rochester 的 Compass Point。

For the NIM guidance, what are you guys assuming for those portable borrowings rolling into new structures? And then what are you rolling those into at this point?

對於 NIM 指南，你們對那些進入新結構的便攜式借款有何假設？然後你在這一點上把它們捲進什麼？

So we had a handful of portable borrowings put back to us in the third quarter, and then we had -- we'll have some that we're forecasting a large portion of them to get put back, given where rates are today, in the fourth quarter. And we're using -- we're hoping to fund it with deposits, of course.

因此，我們在第三季度將少量可移動借款歸還給我們，然後我們將有一些我們預測其中很大一部分會歸還，鑑於今天的利率，在第四季度。我們正在使用 - 當然，我們希望通過存款為其提供資金。

But any shortfall on the deposit side, we'll backfill with FHLB advances. We'll put some swap funding on, depending on where those levels are. The portable market is still out there, so we can look at some portables as we go forward as well. So it's really a mix of different liability structures that we'll look to refinance those portables into as they come back to us.

但是，如果存款方面出現任何短缺，我們將用 FHLB 預付款來補足。我們將投入一些互換資金，具體取決於這些水平的位置。便攜式市場仍然存在，所以我們也可以看看一些便攜式產品。因此，這實際上是不同責任結構的混合，我們將在這些便攜式設備回到我們身邊時對其進行再融資。

From an interest rate risk perspective, you're taking off money under a 3-month duration. Whatever you put it on, you're going to gather a little bit interest rate risk benefits in both the third and the fourth quarter by putting that out a little bit longer.

從利率風險的角度來看，您將在 3 個月的期限內取出資金。無論你放什麼，你都會在第三季度和第四季度通過延長一點時間來收集一點利率風險收益。

Dave, I would just add to that commentary that given the government project that we just started to book recently in October, that's going to be significant for the quarter. So this could be, on average, in the billions, between $2 billion to $3 billion on average for the quarter that would be at a 0% cost of funds. That's the middle class [Treasury] fund prepaid card program that we're involved in. That's a very good piece of business for the bank, and we'll be able to leverage that opportunity as we look at the repricing mechanism.

戴夫，我想補充一下，鑑於我們最近在 10 月份開始預訂的政府項目，這對於本季度來說將是重要的。因此，平均而言，這可能是數十億美元，本季度平均在 20 億至 30 億美元之間，資金成本為 0%。這就是我們參與的中產階級 [財政部] 基金預付卡計劃。這對銀行來說是一項非常好的業務，我們將能夠在研究重新定價機制時利用這一機會。

And in the big picture, if you think about the balance sheets and the assumption of coming together with a potential partnership with Flagstar, we have optionality as we choose how we want to move this balance sheet forward in the future. And that's going to be a very unique opportunity at the time as we assume we can put these balance sheets together. That's a really powerful position to be when it comes to having significant optionality on funding.

從大局來看，如果您考慮資產負債表以及與 Flagstar 建立潛在合作夥伴關係的假設，我們可以選擇在未來如何推進資產負債表。這在當時將是一個非常獨特的機會，因為我們假設我們可以將這些資產負債表放在一起。當涉及到資金的重大選擇權時，這是一個非常強大的位置。

So this is something we're focusing on a daily basis. It's fourth quarter, and we're excited about the new government piece of business that's coming on as well as the potential of balance sheet consolidation, which will give us some significant choices as we embark upon a transformational opportunity here.

所以這是我們每天都在關注的事情。現在是第四季度，我們對即將開展的新政府業務以及資產負債表整合的潛力感到興奮，這將為我們提供一些重要的選擇，因為我們在這裡開始了轉型機會。

Yes. So does that 20 basis points of pressure, does that include the $2 billion to $3 billion in deposits that you're hoping to get or expecting to get in the fourth quarter?

是的。那麼，這 20 個基點的壓力是否包括您希望或預計在第四季度獲得的 20 億至 30 億美元的存款？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. I think that would also assume 75 next week on -- and yet another 50 probably in December.

是的。我認為這也將假設下周有 75 人——可能在 12 月再增加 50 人。

Correct. Yes.

正確的。是的。

So it's just following consensus of the [merger].

所以它只是遵循[合併]的共識。

And then that also bakes in Flagstar's expectation that the margin does not go up in the fourth quarter as well, I would guess. Is that right? .

然後這也讓 Flagstar 預期第四季度的利潤率也不會上升，我猜。那正確嗎？ .

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes. Okay. Cool. And then just going back to the deal accretion. What were you guys saying is your updated math on the earnings accretion that you're expecting to get from that? I heard you on the tangible book part, I just -- I may have missed the earnings accretion piece.

是的。好的。涼爽的。然後回到交易增值。你們說的是你期望從中獲得的收益增長的最新數學嗎？我在有形書籍部分聽到了你的聲音，我只是 - 我可能錯過了收入增長部分。

Yes. We haven't given -- we haven't really commented on updated guidance on earnings accretion because it was really based originally on I/B/E/S Estimates. And I/B/E/S Estimates now really have consolidated deals in them. So the deal is still accretive. We don't see any need to change that guidance. We're pretty comfortable with what's out there. So we haven't specifically updated that from deal announcement.

是的。我們沒有給出——我們沒有真正評論關於收益增長的最新指引，因為它最初是基於 I/B/E/S 估計的。 I/B/E/S Estimates 現在確實在其中包含合併交易。所以這筆交易仍然是增值的。我們認為沒有必要更改該指南。我們對那裡的東西很滿意。所以我們還沒有從交易公告中具體更新這一點。

Got you. And what's your updated interest rate sensitivity if you close the deal on October 1?

得到你。如果您在 10 月 1 日完成交易，您更新後的利率敏感性是多少？

Yes. So we'll -- if we close the deal on October 1, right now, we're estimating would be slightly asset sensitive but pretty close to neutral.

是的。因此，如果我們現在在 10 月 1 日完成交易，我們估計會稍微對資產敏感，但非常接近中性。

Great. And then maybe just one last one on expenses. How are you thinking about 4Q or just the year overall? I know you got the annual guidance out there. Any updated thoughts there?

偉大的。然後可能只是最後一項費用。您如何看待第四季度或全年？我知道你得到了年度指導。那裡有任何更新的想法嗎？

Yes. I mean the annual guidance of $540 million, I think, will come in a little better. We did a little better this quarter with managing expenses. I would assume the fourth quarter will be right around that $134 million, $135 million range. That's kind of where we've been. So yes, I think we'll do a little better from a year perspective than we -- from our original estimate at $540 million. But the fourth quarter, I see coming at around that $135 million level. .

是的。我的意思是，我認為 5.4 億美元的年度指導會更好一些。本季度我們在管理費用方面做得更好。我假設第四季度將在 1.34 億美元、1.35 億美元左右。這就是我們去過的地方。所以是的，我認為從一年的角度來看，我們會比我們做得更好——從我們最初估計的 5.4 億美元來看。但第四季度，我預計將達到 1.35 億美元左右。 .

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Marinac with Janney Montgomery Scott.

我們的下一個問題來自 Christopher Marinac 和 Janney Montgomery Scott。

John and Tom, I wanted to ask just about the liquidity figures. From the last quarterly call report, it seemed that you had a very low level of flood securities, a lot of potential collateral. In fact, some of those measures were better now than it would have been pre-pandemic. So stand-alone, has anything changed at the end of September? And do you see any, I guess, ability to add more debt, if you wanted to, on the balance sheet?

約翰和湯姆，我想問一下流動性數據。從上一季度的電話報告來看，您的洪水證券水平似乎非常低，有很多潛在的抵押品。事實上，其中一些措施現在比大流行前要好。那麼單機，9月底有什麼變化嗎？我猜，如果你願意的話，你有沒有在資產負債表上看到任何增加債務的能力？

I'll start and then I'll pass it on to John. Bottom line, in the quarter, we looked at heavy liquidity position and put it into short-term U.S. treasuries inside of 6 months. So with that being said, there was an opportunity to take a lower yield in cash and move it into a -- we'll call it, a category that -- which is almost consistent with cash, which is 6-month treasury built inside of that as a strategic move as we saw rates significantly rising. And John, if you want to add anything?

我將開始，然後將其傳遞給約翰。歸根結底，在本季度，我們著眼於大量流動性頭寸，並在 6 個月內將其投入短期美國國債。因此，話雖如此，有機會以較低的現金收益率將其轉移到 - 我們稱之為 - 一個幾乎與現金一致的類別，這是內置的 6 個月國庫這是一項戰略舉措，因為我們看到利率顯著上升。約翰，如果你想補充什麼？

Yes. So that's where you'll see the securities portfolio increased for us, which we haven't seen in a very long time. That is just putting on, as Tom mentioned, U.S. treasury securities, 6 months or under, just trying to pick up some yields based on what we could get at the Fed at the time.

是的。所以這就是你會看到我們的證券投資組合增加的地方，這是我們很長時間沒有看到的。正如湯姆所說，這只是增加了 6 個月或以下的美國國債，只是試圖根據我們當時在美聯儲可以獲得的收益來提高一些收益率。

Collateral-wise, it's just as good as cash. Liquidity, just as good, of course. These are high-quality liquid assets. So that's what that was. We're not looking to put duration on in that portfolio yet. We'll continue to monitor that. But with the strong loan growth that we've had, we haven't had a need for that. So that growth in the securities portfolio is really a liquidity -- just a liquidity play from cash to securities.

抵押品方面，它和現金一樣好。當然，流動性同樣好。這些都是優質的流動資產。所以就是這樣。我們還不打算在該投資組合中添加久期。我們將繼續對此進行監控。但隨著我們擁有強勁的貸款增長，我們不需要這樣做。因此，證券投資組合的增長實際上是一種流動性——只是從現金到證券的流動性遊戲。

Got it. And then just a follow-up question on the Banking as a Service deposits. As you look beyond a couple of quarters, I know these are high beta for the moment that -- is there any issue with retaining those funds? Or do you think actually that the retention is going to be high, and they'll just -- they'll behave differently as rates move around next year?

知道了。然後只是關於銀行即服務存款的後續問題。當你看到幾個季度之後，我知道這些目前是高貝塔值——保留這些資金有什麼問題嗎？或者你認為實際上留存率會很高，而且他們只是——隨著明年利率的變化，他們的行為會有所不同？

Sure. So I indicated in my prepared remarks that we're going to anticipate government as a service to ramp up here. It takes a while to get these contracts nailed down and put in place, and they're long-term contracts. So we have a nice book of business or business going forward.

當然。因此，我在準備好的講話中表示，我們將期待政府作為一種服務在這裡增加。確定這些合同並落實到位需要一段時間，而且它們是長期合同。所以我們有一本很好的商業或商業書籍。

We indicated that we have a very significant ramp up in Q4. I think it's about $400 million, $500 million a week in cash [drops], and it could go up to about $6 billion for 1 transaction. That's a significant piece of business. At the same time, we are the bank provided for U.S. Treasury. And as any programs that come out of the treasury department, we are now onboarding that. It's a long-term contract. We're very pleased about our partnership with First Data and Fiserv, so it's been a very good opportunity for the bank to use that type of funding.

我們表示，我們在第四季度有非常顯著的增長。我認為這大約是 4 億美元，每週 5 億美元的現金[下降]，一筆交易可能高達 60 億美元。這是一項重要的業務。同時，我們是為美國財政部提供的銀行。就像財政部門的任何項目一樣，我們現在正在接受它。這是一份長期合同。我們對與 First Data 和 Fiserv 的合作感到非常高興，因此這對銀行來說是一個很好的機會來使用這種類型的資金。

At the same time, we're committed to mortgage as a service. I think that's great opportunity on a planned merger with Flagstar, and we think there's a great opportunity there to build that. So that is probably more high beta because it is tied to SOFR index-type funding. But we're committed to that because we're going to be a large player, assuming the transaction closes. And when we come together, that mortgage as a service business could be very powerful as we work a lot of the correspondent customers.

同時，我們致力於抵押即服務。我認為這是與 Flagstar 計劃合併的絕佳機會，我們認為那裡有一個很好的機會來建立它。所以這可能是更高的貝塔係數，因為它與 SOFR 指數型融資有關。但我們致力於這一點，因為假設交易完成，我們將成為一個大玩家。當我們走到一起時，抵押即服務業務可能會非常強大，因為我們與許多代理客戶合作。

When it comes to traditional BaaS, we're out there working hard on -- working trying to get new business, and it's been a good journey for us. But I think, in general, we're focused on the 3 verticals. And ultimately, as we look at digitization, as a company, there's a tremendous opportunity to digitize the mortgage space. And that's where I think great opportunity will come.

談到傳統的 BaaS，我們正在努力工作——努力爭取新業務，這對我們來說是一段美好的旅程。但我認為，總的來說，我們專注於 3 個垂直領域。最終，當我們看待數字化時，作為一家公司，將抵押貸款空間數字化是一個巨大的機會。這就是我認為巨大的機會將會到來的地方。

And although it's not try to traditional BaaS, but our team in digital are focusing on a lot of projects that's going to hopefully lead towards some good deposit growth. We think there's a tremendous deposit opportunity on mortgage. Having the ability to transact loans, service phones and get the deposit activity, I think that's a tremendous benefit of the planned merger with Flagstar. So mortgage as a service is going to be a focus as well.

雖然它沒有嘗試傳統的 BaaS，但我們的數字團隊正在專注於許多項目，這些項目有望帶來一些良好的存款增長。我們認為抵押貸款存在巨大的存款機會。擁有處理貸款、服務電話和獲得存款活動的能力，我認為這是計劃與 Flagstar 合併的巨大好處。因此，抵押即服務也將成為焦點。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Alexopoulos。

This is Alex on for Steve. You mentioned the benefits from the Banking as a Service business. Do you expect any investments needed to scale this business and get those new opportunities?

這是史蒂夫的亞歷克斯。您提到了銀行即服務業務的好處。您是否期望擴大這項業務並獲得這些新機會所需的任何投資？

So we're going to be very mindful of what our requirements are here. So we've been adding staff. We have built out the Chief Digital Office directly reporting to the CEO, I think, as a priority. This is an interesting opportunity.

因此，我們將非常注意我們的要求。所以我們一直在增加員工。我認為，我們優先建立了直接向 CEO 匯報的首席數字辦公室。這是一個有趣的機會。

As indicated, mortgage, in our opinion, given the history of NYCB and Flagstar, there's a lot of long-term history on how to service the escrow account, the P&I payments. So that is embedded within the franchise, within our operating people. But we're going to move people around, and we're going to make sure we have the right support for these lines of businesses.

如前所述，我們認為，考慮到 NYCB 和 Flagstar 的歷史，抵押貸款在如何為託管賬戶提供服務、P&I 付款方面有很多長期歷史。所以它嵌入到特許經營權中，嵌入到我們的運營人員中。但我們要調動人員，我們要確保我們為這些業務線提供適當的支持。

I will tell you, the challenges is onboarding some of the unique opportunities in traditional BaaS because, obviously, it takes time; and its API interfacing within the core. And we're working on new opportunities within the core that can make it a lot more efficient, but we are staffing in that area. We're moving people around within the organization.

我會告訴你，挑戰在於利用傳統 BaaS 中的一些獨特機會，因為顯然這需要時間；及其核心內的 API 接口。我們正在核心內尋找可以提高效率的新機會，但我們正在該領域配備人員。我們正在組織內部調動人員。

I think that's also -- it's great when you put 2 big companies together and think about opportunities within the organization. There are going to be opportunities in the organization to shuffle people around, to support growth of different verticals within the company. And our vertical here on the funding side is going to transition from wholesale to more of a traditional-type funding mechanism, and part of that will be BaaS.

我認為這也是 - 當您將 2 家大公司放在一起並考慮組織內的機會時，這很棒。組織中將有機會對人員進行洗牌，以支持公司內不同垂直領域的發展。我們在融資方面的垂直領域將從批發轉向更多傳統類型的融資機制，其中一部分將是 BaaS。

In particular, government as a service has been -- it's been a long trajectory of getting them on to the balance sheet. We had a good run during the pandemic, and we were very successful there. That led us into other opportunities. But we have a bunch of transactions that we've won, and we plan on onboarding.

特別是，政府即服務一直是——讓它們進入資產負債表的過程很長。在大流行期間，我們的表現很好，我們在那裡非常成功。這使我們找到了其他機會。但是我們已經贏得了一堆交易，我們計劃入職。

So I think 2023 could be a nice pick-up there on very core stable accounts. Although they're not permanent because they do move on, but we do have the opportunity for an ongoing benefit of good funding sources as we look at the planned merger, as we look at our choices on balance sheet and look at this one vertical as clearly a different funding mechanism, that traditional -- nontraditional funding that NYCB is accustomed to.

所以我認為 2023 年對於非常核心的穩定賬戶來說可能是一個不錯的回升。儘管它們不是永久性的，因為它們確實會繼續前進，但是當我們查看計劃中的合併時，我們確實有機會持續受益於良好的資金來源，因為我們查看資產負債表上的選擇並將這一垂直視為顯然是一種不同的籌資機制，即 NYCB 習慣的傳統非傳統籌資機制。

Moving from a thrift to a commercial bank is the strategy, as Sandro indicated. He's been through his journey. We hope to do this together. And it's a very powerful change when you look at funding. So like I said in my opening remarks, funding, funding, funding, we're focused on that. We raised our focus on that. You see a significant shift on our ability to bring in deposits, and we're going to continue.

正如桑德羅所說，從儲蓄銀行轉向商業銀行是戰略。他經歷了他的旅程。我們希望一起做這件事。當您查看資金時，這是一個非常強大的變化。所以就像我在開場白中所說的那樣，資金、資金、資金，我們專注於這一點。我們提高了對這一點的關注。您會看到我們帶來存款的能力發生了重大轉變，我們將繼續下去。

And you touched on this briefly earlier, but can you talk about the fee opportunities that you're seeing from this Banking as a Service business as well?

您之前簡要地談到了這一點，但您能否談談您從銀行即服務業務中看到的收費機會？

No, I'd say, initially, it varies just on card fees. It's not significant, but they do add up when you have 5 million to 10 million cards. I'd say, a couple of pennies per card per month, it adds up. It's not significant to the total P&L, but we are seeing some nice fee income opportunities there, and it's consistent. As we onboard more municipals and more states throughout the country, we'll have more consistency of fee income. So it's another avenue that we're focusing to justify the investment in the business.

不，我會說，最初，它僅在卡費上有所不同。這並不重要，但是當您擁有 500 萬到 1000 萬張卡片時，它們確實會加起來。我會說，每張卡每月幾便士，它加起來。這對總損益而言並不重要，但我們在那裡看到了一些不錯的費用收入機會，而且是一致的。隨著我們在全國范圍內加入更多的市政當局和州，我們的收費收入將更加一致。因此，這是我們專注於證明對業務進行投資的另一條途徑。

And a follow-up to the comment you mentioned about the multi-family and commercial real estate loans repricing. Can you talk about the market rates for those loans and maybe specialty loans as well?

以及您提到的關於多戶和商業房地產貸款重新定價的評論的後續行動。你能談談這些貸款的市場利率，也許還有特殊貸款？

Yes. So on the specialty side, it's mostly SOFR plus the spread. It's been consistent. It's about 80% of our book is floating rate. We're doing predominantly mostly floating rate structure in the specialty. There were credit buy-up opportunities at very high quality, senior secured position. We've been in this business for a while now, and our team that runs it has done an excellent job. We've never had a late pay. We never had a charge-off. We never had a delinquency. So we're really positive on the asset quality of that. But it's been a good growth business.

是的。所以在專業方面，主要是 SOFR 加上點差。這是一致的。我們的書大約有 80% 是浮動利率。我們主要在專業領域進行浮動利率結構。在非常高質量的高級擔保職位上存在信貸收購機會。我們從事這項業務已經有一段時間了，我們的運營團隊做得非常出色。我們從來沒有拖欠過工資。我們從來沒有過扣款。我們從來沒有過犯罪。所以我們非常看好它的資產質量。但這是一個很好的增長業務。

We have quite a bit of commitment out there. So in the event that markets do have some volatility, there's a possibility that there'll be some good drawdowns, we'll make some good money on the drawdown. So we think that may happen given the uncertainty of markets in the current environment today.

我們有相當多的承諾。所以如果市場確實有一些波動，就有可能會有一些好的回撤，我們會在回撤中賺到一些錢。因此，鑑於當前市場環境的不確定性，我們認為這可能會發生。

In respect to this decree in multi, it's been a very significant increase in total interest rate cost to the borrowers. So going from 3% to 6% is real. So we're around that level right now. It's about [175 to 185] of the 5-year treasury. That's been a traditional short-term type multi-family product. We're really not quoting much on the back end on 10- and 7-year money. But if we do, do that, it's at higher spreads. And we're going to hopefully synthetically structure that if you want to put on-balance sheet so we can have a better interest rate risk profile going forward.

關於這項多項法令，借款人的總利率成本顯著增加。所以從 3% 到 6% 是真實的。所以我們現在就在那個水平。這大約是 5 年期國庫券的 [175 到 185]。那是一種傳統的短期型多戶型產品。對於 10 年期和 7 年期的資金，我們實際上並沒有在後端引用太多。但如果我們這樣做，就這樣做，它的點差更高。如果你想把它放在資產負債表上，我們希望能綜合構建這樣的結構，這樣我們就可以在未來有更好的利率風險狀況。

And on the CRE side, [tack] them over 50 basis points of that. So you're in the mid-6s right now to the market. So that's a sizable change, as indicated with the coupons in the 3s going to the 6s with a lot of money that has to be priced. And we offered a SOFR option. I think that's a good option for customers versus locking in 6%. They may take a 1-year approach towards floating in and hope that rates may come down in the future.

在 CRE 方面，[tack] 他們超過 50 個基點。所以你現在正處於市場的 6 年代中期。所以這是一個相當大的變化，正如 3s 中的優惠券轉到 6s 中所顯示的那樣，需要定價的錢很多。我們提供了 SOFR 選項。我認為與鎖定 6% 相比，這對客戶來說是一個不錯的選擇。他們可能會採取 1 年浮動的方法，並希望未來利率可能會下降。

But we're giving that option to customers, and it's been about a -- close to 50% receptivity with that as long as that are actually repricing in the period. And we think that's going to bode well for our future interest rate risk management opportunity when we think about the combined balance sheets going forward.

但是我們正在向客戶提供這種選擇，只要在此期間實際重新定價，它的接受度就接近 50%。當我們考慮未來的合併資產負債表時，我們認為這對我們未來的利率風險管理機會來說是個好兆頭。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自斯蒂芬斯公司的 Matthew Breese。

The new loan yields question was asked. I was curious, though, on the opposite side, what is the current spot rate of deposits?

提出了新的貸款收益率問題。不過，我很好奇，另一方面，目前的即期存款利率是多少？

So yes, as of 9/30, our current spot rate is 1.59%. 1.59%. That's on total interest-bearing deposits.

所以是的，截至 9/30，我們目前的即期匯率為 1.59%。 1.59%。這是計息存款總額。

Understood. Okay. And then if the Fed stops hiking in early '23, do you have any idea on where -- and perhaps when after the Fed stops hiking, you could see the core NIM stabilize for New York Community stand-alone?

明白了。好的。然後，如果美聯儲在 23 年初停止加息，你是否知道在哪裡——也許在美聯儲停止加息後，你可以看到紐約社區獨立的核心 NIM 穩定？

So Matt, we're not going to give forward guidance, but obviously, if that does take place, it's positive for a liability-sensitive balance sheet, ex the consolidation of Flagstar. So clearly, on a stand-alone basis, if we're running at the dot plots, we're planning for continuing hikes, and we're prepared for that. But in the event as they pivot, I think that's going to be a positive shift on a stand-alone basis for our business model.

所以馬特，我們不打算提供前瞻性指導，但顯然，如果確實發生這種情況，這對負債敏感的資產負債表來說是積極的，例如 Flagstar 的合併。很明顯，在獨立的基礎上，如果我們在點狀圖上跑步，我們正在計劃繼續徒步旅行，我們為此做好了準備。但如果他們轉向，我認為這對於我們的商業模式來說將是一個獨立的基礎上的積極轉變。

On a combined basis, we have an opportunity to really think about where we want to put our balance sheet, look at the transformational opportunity here and set the balance sheet for what's prepared for the future. And that's -- I think that's the real excitement of the upside.

綜合起來，我們有機會真正考慮我們想把資產負債表放在哪裡，看看這裡的轉型機會，並為未來準備資產負債表。這就是 - 我認為這是真正令人興奮的好處。

But in the event that we look on a stand-alone basis, we're prepared for the forward dot plot, and it is a period where we have rising interest rates continuing, I think, for the first quarter, then eventually going down towards the back end of '23. And with that being said, we're prepared for making sure that we have a solid focus on deposit gathering. We're going to continue focusing on building out a funding mechanism here as we go to the institution.

但是，如果我們單獨來看，我們已經為遠期點圖做好了準備，我認為這是一個利率持續上升的時期，第一季度，然後最終下降到'23 的後端。話雖如此，我們已準備好確保我們將重點放在存款收集上。當我們去該機構時，我們將繼續專注於在這裡建立一個資助機制。

And culturally, there's been a drive towards we make loans with deposits. We're not going to make the loans to the customers that are not going to bring the deposits. That's been a cultural shift here. That's been successful. As we talked about some of the other initiatives, it's all about deposits, deposits, deposits.

從文化上講，我們一直在推動我們用存款來貸款。我們不會向不會帶來存款的客戶提供貸款。這是這裡的文化轉變。那已經成功了。當我們談到其他一些舉措時，這都是關於存款、存款、存款的。

As we go forward here on our vision, as we transition from a thrift to a commercial bank with the acceleration of putting together 2 balance sheets, where, in Sandro's perspective, he's been working on this for quite some time, and you can see the results. You're seeing a very strong margin because of those assets that are all repricing, and its funding is very different than our funding.

隨著我們朝著我們的願景前進，隨著我們從儲蓄銀行過渡到商業銀行，加速整合兩張資產負債表，在 Sandro 看來，他已經為此工作了很長時間，你可以看到結果。由於這些資產都在重新定價，你會看到非常高的利潤率，而且它的資金與我們的資金非常不同。

Understood. Okay. And then just going back to the deal, what is the estimated first year accretion from the deal? And then at the current price, what is the expected bargain purchase gain?

明白了。好的。然後回到交易，預計交易的第一年增值是多少？那麼在當前價格下，預期的低價購買收益是多少？

So we'll start at the -- the bargain purchase gain is really highly dependent on 2 things, right, the final purchase accounting marks and the stock price at the day of closing. So we estimate it as of 9/30, given where we think the marks will come out and assuming a current stock price, we're just under a $200 million bargain purchase gain is our estimate.

因此，我們將從 - 低價購買收益實際上高度依賴於兩件事，對，最終購買會計標記和收盤當天的股票價格。因此，我們估計它截至 9/30，考慮到我們認為標記將出現的位置並假設當前股價，我們的估計是低於 2 億美元的廉價購買收益。

Like I said, those 2 items will be the driver, really, along with, of course, equity growth in the quarter on the Flagstar balance sheet. So that's our estimate right now. It moves around pretty significantly, depending on stock price and the final purchase accounting mark. Yes, due to interest rates, of course.

就像我說的那樣，這兩個項目將成為真正的驅動力，當然還有 Flagstar 資產負債表上本季度的股票增長。這就是我們現在的估計。取決於股票價格和最終的採購會計標記，它的波動相當大。是的，當然是因為利率。

On the -- we really haven't updated our guidance. I think I mentioned earlier on earnings accretion from the deal, so we're at that 16% level that we announced originally. So we haven't really updated that as we've gone along. We still believe the deal is highly accretive, especially in this marketplace.

關於 - 我們真的沒有更新我們的指導。我想我之前提到過這筆交易帶來的收益增長，所以我們處於最初宣布的 16% 的水平。所以我們還沒有真正更新，因為我們已經走了。我們仍然相信這筆交易具有很高的增值性，尤其是在這個市場上。

I will just say one point to that. The energy level and the time spent on analyzing the P&L and how these companies work together, we're pretty confident on our original cost savings estimates. And if anything, having this excess time to really understand how these processes work together, we feel very confident on what our estimates were on cost savings for sure.

我只想說一點。分析損益表以及這些公司如何合作所花費的精力和時間，我們對我們最初的成本節約估計非常有信心。如果有的話，有多餘的時間來真正了解這些流程是如何協同工作的，我們對我們對成本節約的估計肯定充滿信心。

Okay. And then just the merger termination date is less than a week away. Can you just talk about expectations for the deal if approvals are not obtained by then?

好的。然後距離合併終止日期還有不到一周的時間。如果屆時沒有獲得批准，你能談談對交易的期望嗎？

As indicated, I apologize if you [missed] reading my opening remarks, we're not going to discuss the pending merger transaction in respect to timing.

如前所述，如果您 [錯過] 閱讀我的開場白，我深表歉意，我們不會就時間問題討論未決的合併交易。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

I want to go back to a comment Sandro made earlier about they're excited, the optimism around the deal if -- I think the quote was "if given the opportunity." That, to me, reads regulators just slow playing the approvals. You both are on the call today, so it feels like the commitment from both parties is there. I guess, maybe a comment, is that the right kind of read?

我想回到桑德羅早些時候發表的關於他們很興奮的評論，如果——我認為這句話是“如果有機會”，那麼對這筆交易的樂觀態度。在我看來，監管機構只是放慢了審批速度。你們今天都在通話中，所以感覺雙方的承諾都在那裡。我想，也許是評論，那是正確的閱讀方式嗎？

So I guess you're addressing that to Sandro? (inaudible)

所以我猜你是在向桑德羅說這個？ （聽不清）

Yes. Well, if it's -- yes, my comment, I don't think you should read anything into it. Every earnings call we've had, we've always talked about what we think the opportunity is. And so we're being consistent with what we said previously. The regulatory process is what it is. And we're going to continue to work towards what it would be if we get an approval until such time as we don't get one.

是的。好吧，如果是--是的，我的評論，我認為您不應該閱讀任何內容。我們的每一次收益電話會議，我們總是談論我們認為機會是什麼。因此，我們與之前所說的保持一致。監管過程就是這樣。如果我們獲得批准，我們將繼續努力，直到我們沒有獲得批准。

So we're still focused on it. But no, I don't think you should read anything into any of our comments today, other than we're still hopeful because we see that the -- as we always have, we've seen that the opportunity and power of the combined organization is really something special.

所以我們仍然專注於它。但是不，我認為你不應該從我們今天的任何評論中讀到任何內容，除了我們仍然充滿希望，因為我們看到 - 正如我們一直擁有的那樣，我們已經看到合併的機會和力量組織真的很特別。

Okay. Just on the dividend. Obviously, you're comfortably earning it now, but maybe thoughts pro forma on the dividend, I guess, with or without Flagstar?

好的。就在股息上。顯然，你現在很舒服地賺到了，但我猜，不管有沒有 Flagstar，也許對股息的形式上的想法？

So look, we've had a long history here of a very strong dividend and this very focused capital management process. We are very comfortable with asset quality. We're very comfortable with how we look at our capital deployment. And going forward, we feel very strongly that we'll continue to pay a very strong dividend.

所以看，我們在這裡有著非常強勁的股息和非常集中的資本管理流程的悠久歷史。我們對資產質量非常滿意。我們對如何看待我們的資本部署感到非常滿意。展望未來，我們非常強烈地認為我們將繼續支付非常強勁的股息。

And obviously, this has been a history and culture of the company going back for decades. So we're very confident. The company had record earnings going into this -- in the beginning of the first half of this year. We're seeing some margin pressure based on substantial movements on Fed action.

顯然，這是公司幾十年來的歷史和文化。所以我們非常有信心。該公司在今年上半年取得了創紀錄的收益。基於美聯儲行動的重大變動，我們看到了一些保證金壓力。

However, over time, this company will navigate through it, and we'll have strong asset quality and foster, on a stand-alone basis, a very focused expense management philosophy to generate good returns to our shareholders and a very strong dividend. So that's always been our culture. On a projected combined basis, we just earn more money.

然而，隨著時間的推移，這家公司將度過難關，我們將擁有強大的資產質量，並在獨立的基礎上培養一種非常專注的費用管理理念，為我們的股東帶來良好的回報和非常強勁的股息。所以這一直是我們的文化。在預計的綜合基礎上，我們只會賺更多的錢。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. Mr. Cangemi, I'll turn the floor back to you for final comments.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。 Cangemi 先生，我會把發言權轉回給你，以徵求最後的意見。

Thank you again for taking the time to join us this morning and for the rest -- and your interest in NYCB. We look forward to chatting with you again at the end of January when we'll discuss our performance for the fourth quarter of 2022.

再次感謝您今天早上抽出寶貴時間加入我們，以及您對 NYCB 的興趣。我們期待在 1 月底再次與您交談，屆時我們將討論 2022 年第四季度的業績。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝你。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。