恩智浦 (NXPI) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the NXP Semiconductors Third Quarter 2019 Conference Call.

    女士們,先生們,感謝您的支持,歡迎參加恩智浦半導體 2019 年第三季度電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    (操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • (Operator Instructions).

    (操作員說明)。

  • I would now like to hand the call over to your speaker today, Jeff Palmer.

    我現在想把今天的電話交給你的發言人,傑夫帕爾默。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Please go ahead, sir.

    請繼續,先生。

  • Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

    Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Daniel, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝丹尼爾,大家早上好。

  • Welcome to the NXP Semiconductors 2019 earnings call.

    歡迎參加恩智浦半導體 2019 年財報電話會議。

  • With me on the call today is Rick Clemmer, NXP's CEO; Kurt Sievers, NXP's President; Peter Kelly, our CFO.

    今天與我通話的是恩智浦首席執行官里克克萊默;恩智浦總裁Kurt Sievers;我們的首席財務官彼得·凱利。

  • If you've not obtained a copy of our earnings press release, it can be found at our company website under the Investor Relations section.

    如果您沒有獲得我們的收益新聞稿副本,可以在我們公司網站的投資者關係部分找到。

  • This call is being recorded and will be available for a replay from our corporate website.

    此通話正在錄音中,可從我們的公司網站重播。

  • Our call today will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially than management's current expectations.

    我們今天的電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述,這些風險和不確定性可能導致恩智浦的業績與管理層目前的預期存在重大差異。

  • These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to statements regarding the macroeconomic impacts on specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for the financial results for the fourth quarter 2019.

    這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於關於宏觀經濟對我們經營所在的特定終端市場的影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們對 2019 年第四季度財務業績的預期的陳述。

  • Please be reminded that NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements.

    請注意,恩智浦不承擔公開修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • For a full disclosure on forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release.

    有關前瞻性陳述的完整披露,請參閱我們的新聞稿。

  • Additionally, during our call today, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude the impact of purchase price accounting, restructuring, stock-based compensation, impairment, merger-related costs and other charges that are driven primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance.

    此外,在我們今天的電話會議中,我們將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標,其中不包括購買價格會計、重組、基於股票的薪酬、減值、合併相關成本和其他主要由離散驅動的費用的影響管理層認為與恩智浦的基礎核心運營業績沒有直接關係的事件。

  • Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our third quarter 2019 press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and is available on NXP's website at the Investor Relations section.

    根據 G 條例,恩智浦在 2019 年第三季度新聞稿中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬,該新聞稿將以 8-K 表形式提交給 SEC,可在恩智浦網站上查閱:投資者關係部分。

  • I'd now like to now turn the call over to Rick.

    我現在想把電話轉給 Rick。

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Jeff, for those informative details.

    謝謝,傑夫,提供這些信息豐富的細節。

  • And welcome everyone to our conference call today.

    歡迎大家參加我們今天的電話會議。

  • NXP delivered revenue of $2.3 billion for the third quarter.

    恩智浦第三季度實現收入 23 億美元。

  • Our sales were near the high end of our guidance.

    我們的銷售額接近我們指導的高端。

  • We demonstrate good expense control, and we successfully delivered improved operating profitability, above the high end of our guidance range.

    我們展示了良好的費用控制,並且我們成功地提高了運營盈利能力,高於我們指導範圍的高端。

  • Taken together, this resulted in $631 million of free cash flow generation.

    總而言之,這產生了 6.31 億美元的自由現金流。

  • Kurt and Peter will provide specific detail later.

    Kurt 和 Peter 稍後將提供具體細節。

  • Looking forward, we continue to be optimistic that our product portfolio investments are addressing our customers' long-term requirements.

    展望未來,我們繼續樂觀地認為我們的產品組合投資正在滿足客戶的長期需求。

  • We see initial signs of the demand environment from our customers appear to have somewhat stabilized.

    我們看到客戶需求環境的初步跡像似乎已有所穩定。

  • We believe the worst of the year-on-year declines in our strategic automotive and industrial markets are behind us.

    我們相信,我們的戰略汽車和工業市場同比下滑最嚴重的時期已經過去。

  • Specifically, our Q4 guidance for automotive points to low single-digit decline year-on-year versus the high single-digit decline we've experienced year to date.

    具體而言,我們對汽車的第四季度指導指出,同比下降幅度較低,而我們今年迄今經歷的單位數下降幅度較大。

  • Additionally, our guidance for industrial business points to a mid-single digit decline versus the mid-teens decline seen year to date.

    此外,我們對工業業務的指導指向中個位數的下降,而今年迄今的下降幅度為十幾歲。

  • While we are encouraged by the recent stabilization, and in some cases, improved demand, the shape and timing of any significant market reacceleration is clearly uncertain.

    雖然我們對最近的穩定以及在某些情況下需求的改善感到鼓舞,但任何重大市場重新加速的形式和時間顯然都不確定。

  • What we continue to do is manage our cost and expenses and believe as a company, we are well positioned for a resumption in consistent demand.

    我們將繼續做的是管理我們的成本和費用,並相信作為一家公司,我們已經做好了恢復持續需求的準備。

  • Regardless of the current demand environment, our focus is on delivering unique and differentiated solutions, while enabling our customers to be successful in their target markets.

    無論當前的需求環境如何,我們的重點是提供獨特和差異化的解決方案,同時使我們的客戶能夠在其目標市場取得成功。

  • We measure our success by attaining high RMS, or relative market share positions, in our target markets to drive true leadership, which should result in defensible long-term franchises based on truly innovative and competitive solutions.

    我們通過在目標市場中獲得高 RMS 或相對市場份額地位來衡量我們的成功,以推動真正的領導地位,這應該會產生基於真正創新和有競爭力的解決方案的可靠的長期特許經營權。

  • As we were successful in this regard, we are rewarded with lasting customer relationships, and we gain valuable insight into long-term requirements, which enable to us optimize our R&D decisions and investments.

    由於我們在這方面取得了成功,我們獲得了持久的客戶關係的回報,並且我們獲得了對長期需求的寶貴洞察力,這使我們能夠優化我們的研發決策和投資。

  • Ultimately, this creates a virtuous cycle of product and customer alignment that will enable us to continue to deliver solid results to our shareholders.

    最終,這將創造一個產品和客戶一致的良性循環,這將使我們能夠繼續為我們的股東提供可靠的結果。

  • Over the course of the last year, we have reviewed with you several new product initiatives that reflect and underpin our strategic investment process.

    在過去的一年中,我們與您一起審查了幾項反映和支持我們戰略投資流程的新產品計劃。

  • As an example, in automotive, we've discussed our goals for our level 2 and level 3 ADAS business.

    例如,在汽車領域,我們已經討論了我們的 2 級和 3 級 ADAS 業務的目標。

  • Specifically, in RADAR, we continued to see our order rates rising and increasing customer engagements, which reinforce our projected 25% to 30% compounded annual growth over the next several years.

    具體而言,在 RADAR 中,我們繼續看到我們的訂單率上升和客戶參與度增加,這加強了我們預計未來幾年 25% 至 30% 的複合年增長率。

  • Additionally, in Q4, we will begin to ramp our RFCMOS 77 gigahertz front-end transceiver to a leading North American solution supplier.

    此外,在第四季度,我們將開始將我們的 RFCMOS 77 GHz 前端收發器推向北美領先的解決方案供應商。

  • Along with our market-leading RADAR processors, connectivity and software in a complete system solution.

    連同我們市場領先的雷達處理器、連接性和軟件,形成一個完整的系統解決方案。

  • This is a great validation of investments and customer commitments we made over the last several years.

    這是對我們在過去幾年中所做的投資和客戶承諾的一個很好的驗證。

  • The success we have seen with our multiple chip -- our multichip RADAR solution sets the stage for the investments and the integration of the RADAR transceiver and processor into a single-chip solution, which we've already begun to undertake.

    我們在多芯片方面所取得的成功——我們的多芯片 RADAR 解決方案為投資和將 RADAR 收發器和處理器集成到單芯片解決方案中奠定了基礎,我們已經開始著手進行。

  • Additionally, a few years ago, we invested in vehicle to everything, our secure V2X solutions based on DSRC WiFi technology, another offering in our ADAS portfolio.

    此外,幾年前,我們投資了車聯網,我們基於 DSRC WiFi 技術的安全 V2X 解決方案,這是我們 ADAS 產品組合中的另一項產品。

  • It's taken longer than we had anticipated to see material transaction of this technology and use case.

    看到這項技術和用例的實質性交易花費的時間比我們預期的要長。

  • However, we are pleased that Volkswagen has announced the new 2020 Golf, their highest selling vehicle in Europe, which will come standardly equipped with NXP RoadLINK secure V2X solution.

    然而,我們很高興大眾汽車宣布推出新款 2020 Golf,這是他們在歐洲銷量最高的車型,它將標配 NXP RoadLINK 安全 V2X 解決方案。

  • Currently, European roads are being equipped with DSRC based V2X technology with 5,000 kilometers planned through the end of 2019.

    目前,歐洲道路正在配備基於 DSRC 的 V2X 技術,計劃到 2019 年底行駛 5,000 公里。

  • While V2X is not yet material in terms of revenue generation, it is another clear proof point that our automotive customers view NXT as a thought leader, which is making the right long-term investments to enable their success and to reduce the number of accidents and save lives.

    雖然 V2X 在創收方面尚不重要,但另一個明確的證據表明,我們的汽車客戶將 NXT 視為思想領袖,它正在進行正確的長期投資,以實現成功並減少事故和拯救生命。

  • In addition to RADAR and V2X, the other new automotive product initiatives we have shared with you include BMS, as witnessed by our success with the Volkswagen MEB platform, digital clusters and ultra-wideband are all progressing as we have anticipated.

    除了 RADAR 和 V2X,我們與大家分享的其他汽車新產品計劃包括 BMS,我們在大眾 MEB 平台上的成功見證了我們的成功,數字集群和超寬帶都在如我們預期的那樣取得進展。

  • This reinforces our belief that our automotive growth subset can grow 25% to 30% compounded growth rate in total even in a more challenging global production environment.

    這強化了我們的信念,即即使在更具挑戰性的全球生產環境中,我們的汽車增長子集也能以 25% 至 30% 的複合增長率總體增長。

  • In the industrial and IoT market, our crossover processors are continuing to see solid traction with revenue run rate tracking at a -- nearly a $60 million per year run rate.

    在工業和物聯網市場,我們的跨界處理器繼續受到強勁的牽引力,其收入運行率跟踪每年接近 6000 萬美元。

  • Very nice performance for an innovative new product, and we are in the early days of the design to revenue cycle with multiple customers, which should result in the doubling of our crossover business in 2020 and several following years.

    對於一款創新的新產品來說,性能非常好,我們正處於與多個客戶的設計到收入周期的早期階段,這應該會導致我們的跨界業務在 2020 年和接下來的幾年中翻倍。

  • Within the mobile end market interest in our new ultra-wideband products, which really enables an intersection of the mobile and auto access market, continues.

    移動終端市場對我們新的超寬帶產品的興趣仍在繼續,它真正實現了移動和汽車接入市場的交叉。

  • Both BMW and Volkswagen announce support for the NXP-based solutions during the most recent quarter for the secure access, theft protection and other use cases.

    BMW 和 Volkswagen 在最近一個季度宣布支持基於 NXP 的解決方案,用於安全訪問、防盜和其他用例。

  • In the increased attach rate of our secure mobile, while it continues as the customer's base continues to broaden.

    在我們的安全手機連接率增加的同時,隨著客戶群的不斷擴大,它還在繼續。

  • Now the one area that we've not spent a lot of time on, about our efforts in the communication infrastructure end market and specifically around the transition towards 5G networks.

    現在,我們沒有花很多時間在一個領域,關於我們在通信基礎設施終端市場的努力,特別是圍繞向 5G 網絡的過渡。

  • We have several opportunities in the buildout of 5G networks.

    我們在建設 5G 網絡方面有幾個機會。

  • The first is in radio frequency power solutions.

    首先是射頻電源解決方案。

  • These are subsystems which are installed in the remote radio head unit up on the cellular towers.

    這些是安裝在蜂窩塔上的遠程無線電頭單元中的子系統。

  • Our products take analog signals and amplify the signals in radio frequency domain, enabling communications between cell towers and mobile handsets.

    我們的產品採用模擬信號並放大射頻域中的信號,實現手機信號塔和手機之間的通信。

  • In the 4G generation of base stations, we offered high-power LDMOS power amplifiers for 1 to 4 transmitter radio systems.

    在 4G 代基站中,我們為 1 到 4 個發射機無線電系統提供了大功率 LDMOS 功率放大器。

  • To provide our customers with increased bandwidth in a fixed frequency spectrum, we have developed a wide range of low-power highly integrated products for massive MIMO RF Power systems.

    為了在固定頻譜中為我們的客戶提供更高的帶寬,我們為大規模 MIMO 射頻電源系統開發了廣泛的低功耗高度集成產品。

  • This can be thought of as a rays of amplifiers in nearly the same physical footprint as 4G remote radio heads, but with up to 32 or 64 instinct transmit paths, providing upwards of 10x the data rate versus the 4G systems.

    這可以被認為是與 4G 遠程無線電頭端幾乎相同物理足蹟的放大器射線,但具有多達 32 或 64 條本能傳輸路徑,與 4G 系統相比,提供高達 10 倍以上的數據速率。

  • As the industry transitions towards the 5G standard with higher frequency bands, we have developed solutions across the complete sub-6 gigahertz spectrum, leveraging either our market leading LDMOS or GaN-based massive MIMO solutions.

    隨著行業向更高頻段的 5G 標準過渡,我們利用我們市場領先的 LDMOS 或基於 GaN 的大規模 MIMO 解決方案,開發了涵蓋完整的 sub-6 GHz 頻譜的解決方案。

  • Interestingly, we have innovated our LDMOS process technology to be able to operate up to about 3.5 gigahertz, roughly 30% higher frequency versus the 4G generation, while still delivering the required output power and efficiency.

    有趣的是,我們對 LDMOS 工藝技術進行了創新,使其能夠以高達約 3.5 GHz 的頻率運行,與 4G 一代相比,頻率提高了大約 30%,同時仍能提供所需的輸出功率和效率。

  • Furthermore, with our proprietary SiGe process technology, we have developed millimeter wave or ray-based solutions, supporting frequencies greater than 24 gigahertz for dense urban environments that we don't anticipate broad-based global millimeter wave buildouts to begin in earnest until late 2020 or early 2021.

    此外,憑藉我們專有的 SiGe 工藝技術,我們開發了毫米波或基於射線的解決方案,支持高於 24 GHz 的頻率,適用於密集的城市環境,我們預計在 2020 年底之前不會真正開始廣泛的全球毫米波建設或 2021 年初。

  • Taken together, NXP has the broadest, most innovative footprint of RF Power amplifiers for base station applications across the entire 5G frequency spectrum.

    總之,恩智浦擁有最廣泛、最具創新性的射頻功率放大器,適用於整個 5G 頻譜的基站應用。

  • From a market perspective, our analysis points to a serviceable market for RF Power systems for cellular base stations, growing to about $2.5 billion by 2024 or a 13% 5-year compounded annual growth rate.

    從市場角度來看,我們的分析表明蜂窩基站射頻功率系統的可服務市場到 2024 年將增長到約 25 億美元或 13% 的 5 年復合年增長率。

  • With NXP holding the #1 position in this market with a relative market share position of 1.8x the #2 player.

    恩智浦以 1.8 倍的相對市場份額位居該市場第一名,是第二名。

  • Additionally, we have other opportunities in the 5G buildout for NXP.

    此外,我們在 NXP 的 5G 建設中還有其他機會。

  • Our Digital Networking team has been awarded designs with a few OEMs to deploy CPE and also repeater equipment, which will complement and leverage the buildout of last-mile solutions in dense urban areas.

    我們的數字網絡團隊已獲得一些 OEM 的設計,以部署 CPE 和中繼器設備,這將補充和利用密集城市地區最後一英里解決方案的構建。

  • These solutions leverage our innovative 64-bit ARM multicore Layerscape processors, which embed our unique and proprietary Vespa programmable baseband engines.

    這些解決方案利用我們創新的 64 位 ARM 多核 Layerscape 處理器,其中嵌入了我們獨特的專有 Vespa 可編程基帶引擎。

  • This is a market which we bring unique programmable hardware and software capabilities, developed over many years focusing on the service provider market.

    這是一個我們帶來獨特的可編程硬件和軟件功能的市場,多年來專注於服務提供商市場。

  • These are purpose-built and optimized solutions, which result in high performance and low power consumption.

    這些是專門構建和優化的解決方案,可實現高性能和低功耗。

  • It's also a market with few focused competitors, and we believe our solutions offer NXP solid differentiation.

    這也是一個很少有集中競爭對手的市場,我們相信我們的解決方案提供了恩智浦的堅實差異化。

  • From a market's perspective, the deployments are tied to the buildout of 5G macro base station for last-mile solutions, which we estimate will begin broad-based rollout global volume production in late 2020 or early 2021.

    從市場的角度來看,這些部署與為最後一英里解決方案建設 5G 宏基站有關,我們估計這將在 2020 年末或 2021 年初開始在全球範圍內大規模量產。

  • Our analysis points to a serviceable market for these last-mile solutions, growing at a 30% to 35% basis on a 5-year compounded annual growth rate.

    我們的分析指出這些最後一英里解決方案的可用市場在 5 年復合年增長率的基礎上以 30% 至 35% 的速度增長。

  • We believe NXP has an opportunity to capitalize on the rollout of these last-mile solutions and further highlights customer belief in our fundamental IP and product development.

    我們相信恩智浦有機會利用這些最後一英里解決方案的推出,並進一步凸顯客戶對我們基礎 IP 和產品開發的信心。

  • In summary, our strategy continues to yield positive results, we will continue to drive focus in our strategic end markets, engaging with customers to deliver superior, highly differentiated products, regardless of the short-term fluctuations in demand.

    總而言之,我們的戰略繼續取得積極成果,我們將繼續專注於我們的戰略終端市場,與客戶互動以提供卓越、高度差異化的產品,無論需求的短期波動如何。

  • I'd like to now pass the call over to Kurt to discuss the results of the current quarter.

    我現在想把電話轉給庫爾特,討論本季度的結果。

  • Kurt Sievers - President

    Kurt Sievers - President

  • Thanks very much, Rick, and good morning, everyone.

    非常感謝 Rick,大家早上好。

  • We really appreciate you joining our call this morning.

    我們非常感謝您今天早上加入我們的電話會議。

  • Overall, our Q3 results were above the midpoint of our guidance.

    總體而言,我們的第三季度業績高於我們指導的中點。

  • With the contribution from the mobile and the industrial IoT markets stronger than planned, while demand in the communication infrastructure markets was slightly weaker and our automotive business performed just as anticipated.

    由於移動和工業物聯網市場的貢獻強於計劃,而通信基礎設施市場的需求略有減弱,我們的汽車業務表現符合預期。

  • Taken together, NXP delivered revenue of $2.3 billion, which combined with gross margin improvements and good expense control, enabled us to successfully deliver operating profitability above the higher end of our guidance range.

    總的來說,恩智浦實現了 23 億美元的收入,再加上毛利率的提高和良好的費用控制,使我們能夠成功地實現高於我們指導範圍上限的運營盈利能力。

  • Let me turn to the specific trends in Q3 in our focus end markets.

    讓我談談我們關注的終端市場第三季度的具體趨勢。

  • Starting with automotive.

    從汽車開始。

  • Revenue was $1.05 billion, down 7% year-on-year, in line with our guidance.

    收入為 10.5 億美元,同比下降 7%,符合我們的預期。

  • During the quarter, our automotive revenue declined 7% versus the year ago period, as anticipated, at a lesser rate of decline than in the previous quarter and showing 2% sequential growth.

    本季度,我們的汽車收入與去年同期相比下降了 7%,正如預期的那樣,降幅低於上一季度,環比增長 2%。

  • Our core automotive product lines declined year-on-year, a reflection of lower auto production and the appreciated supply chain rationalization.

    我們的核心汽車產品線同比下降,這反映了汽車產量下降和供應鏈合理化受到讚賞。

  • However, revenue from the subset of our automotive growth product lines grew in the high single-digit range year-on-year during the quarter.

    然而,我們汽車增長產品線子集的收入在本季度同比增長了高個位數範圍。

  • Moving to industrial and IoT.

    轉向工業和物聯網。

  • Revenue was $426 million, down 14% year-on-year and up 9% sequentially, slightly better than our expectations.

    收入為 4.26 億美元,同比下降 14%,環比增長 9%,略好於我們的預期。

  • During the quarter, the primary source of weakness in industrial and IoT continued to be our general purpose microcontroller products.

    在本季度,工業和物聯網的主要疲軟來源仍然是我們的通用微控制器產品。

  • Remember, our industrial and IoT business is primarily serviced through our global distribution partners and it is heavily indexed to customers in the Asian markets, which appear to be particularly affected by the continued U.S.-China trade tensions.

    請記住,我們的工業和物聯網業務主要通過我們的全球分銷合作夥伴提供服務,並且與亞洲市場的客戶密切相關,這似乎特別受到中美貿易緊張局勢的持續影響。

  • Turning to mobile.

    轉向手機。

  • Revenue was $321 million, up 2% year-on-year, and up 8% sequentially above the high end of our guidance.

    收入為 3.21 億美元,同比增長 2%,環比增長 8%,高於我們的指導上限。

  • During Q3, despite reduced order rates at the largest Chinese handset customers, we did see robust seasonal ordering patterns from both other Chinese handset OEMs as well as our premium handset customer.

    在第三季度,儘管中國最大手機客戶的訂單率有所下降,但我們確實看到了來自其他中國手機 OEM 以及我們的高端手機客戶的強勁季節性訂單模式。

  • Both trends taken together underpin our view that growth in our mobile business will continue to be driven by increasing attach rates of our secure mobile technology associated with new use cases like transit ticketing amongst others.

    這兩種趨勢共同支持我們的觀點,即我們的移動業務的增長將繼續受到與新用例(如公交票務等)相關的安全移動技術的增加附加率的推動。

  • Lastly, communication infrastructure and other, revenue was $470 million, down 2% year-on-year, and down 6% sequentially below our guidance.

    最後,通信基礎設施和其他收入為 4.7 億美元,同比下降 2%,環比下降 6%,低於我們的預期。

  • From a product line trend perspective, we continued to see robust year-on-year growth trends associated with our RF Power solutions.

    從產品線趨勢的角度來看,我們繼續看到與我們的射頻電源解決方案相關的強勁的同比增長趨勢。

  • So just a little than our plans.

    所以只是比我們的計劃少一點。

  • The Digital Networking business came in line with expectations, while the secure card business was a little below our expectations.

    數字網絡業務符合預期,而安全卡業務則略低於我們的預期。

  • Let me highlight here several notable trends in the communications infrastructure market, which we do believe are truly benefiting NXP.

    讓我在這裡強調通信基礎設施市場的幾個顯著趨勢,我們認為這些趨勢確實使恩智浦受益。

  • These include the continued shift towards massive MIMO solutions, leveraging both LDMOS as well as gallium nitride based products.

    其中包括繼續轉向大規模 MIMO 解決方案,同時利用 LDMOS 和基於氮化鎵的產品。

  • We also see early traction with our millimeter wave engagements for dense urban areas.

    我們還看到了我們在密集城市地區開展毫米波活動的早期牽引力。

  • The positive tailwinds for our communication infrastructure business are robust.

    我們的通信基礎設施業務的積極順風是強勁的。

  • Now let me turn to our expectations for quarter 4. Our guidance reflects the ongoing stabilization in demand, mentioned earlier in our prepared remarks by Rick.

    現在讓我談談我們對第 4 季度的預期。我們的指導反映了需求的持續穩定,正如 Rick 在我們之前準備好的評論中提到的那樣。

  • We do believe the outlook appears to have stopped getting worse on a seasonal basis.

    我們確實認為,在季節性基礎上,前景似乎已經停止惡化。

  • So it is still not reflective of a return to growth.

    因此,它仍然不能反映恢復增長。

  • We are guiding quarter 4 revenue at $2.27 billion, flat sequentially on the third quarter, within the range of down 1% to up 2%.

    我們指導第四季度的收入為 22.7 億美元,與第三季度持平,在下降 1% 至上升 2% 的範圍內。

  • From a year-over-year perspective, this represents a decline of about 6% versus the same period a year ago, of which about 120 basis points is the elimination of the MSA versus the year ago period.

    從同比來看,這比去年同期下降了約 6%,其中約 120 個基點是取消了 MSA 與去年同期相比。

  • At the midpoint, we are anticipating the following sequential trends in our 4 businesses.

    在中點,我們預計我們的 4 項業務將出現以下連續趨勢。

  • Automotive is expected to be up mid-single digits versus Q3.

    與第三季度相比,汽車行業預計將增長中個位數。

  • Industrial and IoT is expected to be down in the mid-single-digit range on a percentage basis.

    工業和物聯網預計將在百分比基礎上下降到中個位數範圍內。

  • Mobile is expected to be slightly down in the low single digits on a percentage basis.

    預計移動設備將在百分比基礎上略微下降至低個位數。

  • And finally, communication infrastructure and other is expected to be down in the low single digits on a percentage basis.

    最後,通信基礎設施和其他方面的百分比預計將以低個位數下降。

  • In summary, our new product introductions, customer engagement levels and design win momentum in our strategic focus areas continue to be very, very positive.

    總之,我們在戰略重點領域的新產品推出、客戶參與度和設計贏得勢頭繼續非常非常積極。

  • And we do continue to be very optimistic about the mid- to long-term potential of NXP.

    我們確實繼續對恩智浦的中長期潛力非常樂觀。

  • Now I would like to pass the call to Peter for a review of our financial performance.

    現在我想把電話轉給彼得,讓他審查我們的財務業績。

  • Peter, over to you.

    彼得,交給你了。

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • Thank you, Kurt, and good morning to everyone on today's call.

    謝謝你,庫爾特,今天電話會議上的每個人早上好。

  • As Kurt has already covered the drivers of the revenue during the quarter and provided our revenue outlook for the fourth quarter, I'll move to the financial highlights.

    由於庫爾特已經涵蓋了本季度收入的驅動因素並提供了我們對第四季度的收入展望,我將轉向財務亮點。

  • In summary, our third quarter revenue performance was near the high end of our guidance range, which combined with good expense control, resulted in very strong non-GAAP operating profit.

    總而言之,我們第三季度的收入表現接近我們指導範圍的高端,再加上良好的費用控制,導致非公認會計準則營業利潤非常強勁。

  • But focusing on the details of the third quarter, total revenue was $2.27 billion, down 7% year-on-year, of which 120 basis points was the elimination of the MSA versus the year ago period.

    但關注第三季度的細節,總收入為 22.7 億美元,同比下降 7%,其中 120 個基點是取消 MSA 與去年同期相比。

  • We generated $1.2 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 53.7%, up 70 basis points year-on-year and in line with the midpoint of our guidance.

    我們創造了 12 億美元的非美國通用會計準則毛利潤,報告非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 53.7%,同比增長 70 個基點,符合我們指引的中點。

  • Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $531 million, down $32 million year-on-year and down $10 million from Q2.

    非美國通用會計準則運營費用總額為 5.31 億美元,同比減少 3200 萬美元,比第二季度減少 1000 萬美元。

  • This was $5 million better than the midpoint of our guidance.

    這比我們指導的中點高出 500 萬美元。

  • From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $687 million and non-GAAP operating margin was 30.3%, up 30 basis points year-on-year, despite a $180 million drop in revenue over the same period.

    從總營業利潤來看,非美國通用會計準則營業利潤為 6.87 億美元,非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 30.3%,同比增長 30 個基點,儘管同期收入下降了 1.8 億美元。

  • Non-GAAP interest expense was $66 million, cash tax for ongoing operations were $39 million and noncontrolling interest was $10 million, with cash tax and interest expense modestly better than the midpoint of guidance.

    非 GAAP 利息支出為 6600 萬美元,持續經營的現金稅為 3900 萬美元,非控股權益為 1000 萬美元,現金稅和利息支出略好於指導中點。

  • Stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings, was $84 million.

    不包括在我們的非公認會計原則收益中的基於股票的薪酬為 8400 萬美元。

  • Now I'd like to turn to the changes in our cash and debt.

    現在我想談談我們的現金和債務的變化。

  • Our total debt at the end of Q3 was $8.51 billion, down $33 million sequentially as we retired the remaining [stood] portion of our June 2021 debt.

    我們在第三季度末的總債務為 85.1 億美元,環比減少了 3300 萬美元,因為我們還清了 2021 年 6 月債務的剩餘部分。

  • Cash was $3.54 billion, a net debt of $4.97 billion, a decline sequentially because of solid cash generation during the third quarter.

    現金為 35.4 億美元,淨債務為 49.7 億美元,環比下降,原因是第三季度現金生成穩健。

  • We exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $3.13 billion, and our ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of the third quarter was 1.59x.

    我們以 31.3 億美元的過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 結束本季度,截至第三季度末,我們的淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.59 倍。

  • And our non-GAAP interest coverage was 10.4x.

    我們的非 GAAP 利息覆蓋率為 10.4 倍。

  • Our liquidity is excellent, and our balance sheet continues to be very strong.

    我們的流動性非常好,我們的資產負債表仍然非常強勁。

  • During the third quarter, we paid $70 million in cash dividends and announced a 50% increase in the annual dividend rate.

    第三季度,我們支付了 7000 萬美元的現金股息,並宣布將年度股息率提高 50%。

  • Our capital return policy continues to be -- to return all excess cash to shareholders.

    我們的資本回報政策仍然是——將所有多餘的現金返還給股東。

  • I would remind you that since July 2018, we have returned $6.6 billion to our shareholders, including buying back 18% of the diluted share count.

    我想提醒您,自 2018 年 7 月以來,我們已向股東返還 66 億美元,其中包括回購 18% 的攤薄股份。

  • Turning to working capital metrics.

    轉向營運資金指標。

  • Days of inventory was 98 days, a decrease of 2 days sequentially, a quarter-on-quarter decline of $10 million.

    庫存天數為 98 天,環比減少 2 天,環比減少 1000 萬美元。

  • We continue to aggressively manage our distribution channel.

    我們繼續積極管理我們的分銷渠道。

  • And inventory in the channel is very healthy, 2.3 months; and within our long-term targets, though, slightly below the 2.4 months we normally expect to run.

    而且渠道庫存非常健康,2.3個月;不過,在我們的長期目標範圍內,略低於我們通常預期的 2.4 個月。

  • Days receivable were 32 days, flat sequentially.

    應收天數為 32 天,環比持平。

  • And days payable were 74 days, an increase of 7 days versus the prior quarter.

    應付天數為 74 天,比上一季度增加 7 天。

  • Taken together, our cash conversion cycle was 56 days, an improvement of 9 days versus the prior quarter.

    總而言之,我們的現金轉換週期為 56 天,比上一季度改善了 9 天。

  • Cash flow from operations was $746 million.

    運營現金流為 7.46 億美元。

  • Our net CapEx was $115 million, resulting in free cash flow of $631 million.

    我們的淨資本支出為 1.15 億美元,產生了 6.31 億美元的自由現金流。

  • Turning to our expectations for the fourth quarter.

    轉向我們對第四季度的預期。

  • As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate fourth quarter revenue to be about $2.27 billion, plus or minus $30 million; and at the midpoint, this is flat sequentially.

    正如庫爾特所說,我們預計第四季度收入約為 22.7 億美元,上下浮動 3000 萬美元;在中點,這是順序平坦的。

  • We expect non-GAAP gross margins to be about 54.2%, plus or minus 30 basis points.

    我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率約為 54.2%,上下浮動 30 個基點。

  • Operating expenses are expected to be about $545 million, plus or minus about $7 million.

    運營費用預計約為 5.45 億美元,上下浮動約 700 萬美元。

  • And taken together, we see non-GAAP operating margin to be about 30.2%, plus or minus about 30 basis points.

    綜合來看,我們認為非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率約為 30.2%,上下浮動約 30 個基點。

  • We estimate non-GAAP interest expense to be around $69 million, and anticipate cash tax related to ongoing operations to be about $39 million.

    我們估計非公認會計原則的利息支出約為 6900 萬美元,預計與持續運營相關的現金稅約為 3900 萬美元。

  • Noncontrolling interest will be about $9 million.

    非控股權益約為 900 萬美元。

  • And for the fourth quarter, we suggest that for modeling purposes, we use an average share count of about 285 million shares.

    對於第四季度,我們建議出於建模目的,我們使用約 2.85 億股的平均股數。

  • Finally, I have a few closing comments that I'd like to make.

    最後,我想說幾句結束語。

  • One, we currently have $3.5 billion of cash on our balance sheet.

    一,我們目前的資產負債表上有 35 億美元的現金。

  • On December 1, we plan to use $1.1 billion of this cash to pay down our convertible debt.

    12 月 1 日,我們計劃使用其中的 11 億美元現金來償還我們的可轉換債務。

  • And we anticipate using $1.76 billion to close our transaction for the Marvell asset, although, we're still waiting for the final regulatory approval from Taiwan.

    我們預計將使用 17.6 億美元來完成我們對 Marvell 資產的交易,不過,我們仍在等待台灣的最終監管批准。

  • As Kurt pointed out, we're pleased with our performance in the third quarter.

    正如庫爾特所指出的,我們對第三季度的表現感到滿意。

  • Our revenue was slightly better than guidance with the contribution from the mobile and industrial IoT markets, both a bit stronger than expected, while the automotive market was in line with our expectations and the comm infrastructure market was slightly weaker.

    由於移動和工業物聯網市場的貢獻,我們的收入略好於預期,均略強於預期,而汽車市場符合我們的預期,通信基礎設施市場略弱。

  • The challenge at this stage is to predict when a positive inflection in demand will occur.

    這個階段的挑戰是預測需求何時會出現積極的拐點。

  • Until we see a decidedly improve demand environment, we'll keep -- continue to keep a tight control on those items which are under our control, including gross margin, operating expenses and working capital, aiming to maximize the performance of the company.

    在我們看到需求環境明顯改善之前,我們將繼續 - 繼續嚴格控制我們控制的那些項目,包括毛利率、運營費用和營運資金,旨在最大限度地提高公司的業績。

  • Our non-GAAP gross margin has steadily improved over the last year, even as we navigate to the challenging top line demand environment.

    我們的非公認會計原則毛利率在過去一年中穩步提高,即使我們正面臨具有挑戰性的頂線需求環境。

  • Our non-GAAP gross margin improved again in the third quarter, and we anticipate further improvements into the fourth quarter.

    我們的非公認會計原則毛利率在第三季度再次提高,我們預計到第四季度會進一步改善。

  • However, as our guidance reflects, given our top line visibility, we do not believe we will achieve the 55% goal in Q4.

    然而,正如我們的指導所反映的那樣,鑑於我們的收入可見度,我們認為我們不會在第四季度實現 55% 的目標。

  • This is a significant disappointment driven by a lack of volume and the resulting under-recovery it drives to our costs.

    由於數量不足以及由此導致的回收不足導致我們的成本下降,這是一個巨大的失望。

  • However, I continue to have confidence in our ability to manage the cost which are under our control.

    但是,我仍然對我們管理可控成本的能力充滿信心。

  • So further, I would like to reiterate Kurt and Rick's comments: the market continues to be uncertain, and although we've certainly seen some positive signs, we're not ready yet to declare victory.

    因此,我想進一步重申 Kurt 和 Rick 的評論:市場仍然不確定,雖然我們確實看到了一些積極的跡象,但我們還沒有準備好宣布勝利。

  • In fact, after 5 quarters of year-on-year declines, achieving a flat year-on-year revenue for the first quarter of 2020 would feel like a positive move in an uncertain market environment.

    事實上,在經歷了 5 個季度的同比下滑之後,在不確定的市場環境中,實現 2020 年第一季度的同比收入持平,感覺像是一個積極的舉措。

  • Equally, I would remind you all that our operating expenses generally increase from Q4 to Q1 as we feel the impact the annual bonuses and fringe benefit resets.

    同樣,我要提醒大家,由於我們感受到年度獎金和附加福利重置的影響,我們的運營費用通常會從第四季度增加到第一季度。

  • So with that, I'd like to now turn it back to the operator and answer any questions you may have.

    因此,我現在想將其轉回給接線員並回答您可能遇到的任何問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • I wanted to focus on the automotive side first.

    我想首先關注汽車方面。

  • It's is good to see that, that's up subsequently in the quarter.

    很高興看到這一點,隨後在本季度有所上升。

  • So can you just talk about what's driving that up in the fourth quarter?

    那麼你能談談第四季度的推動因素嗎?

  • And then for the full year, you did very well getting closer to SAAR.

    然後一整年,你在接近 SAAR 方面做得很好。

  • How are you thinking about what NXP's growth rate in auto can be relative to SAAR conceptually in 2020 as you have inventory versus share gains and a bunch of potentially offsetting vectors?

    您如何看待恩智浦在汽車領域的增長率在 2020 年相對於 SAAR 的概念,因為您有庫存與股票收益以及一堆潛在的抵消向量?

  • Kurt Sievers - President

    Kurt Sievers - President

  • This is Kurt.

    這是庫爾特。

  • Let me take that question.

    讓我來回答這個問題。

  • Let me maybe start with saying what our latest market insights are.

    讓我先說一下我們最新的市場洞察力。

  • So IHS just published their latest SAAR numbers for this year and the forecast for next year, where they are saying they see a 6% decline for the SAAR for 2019 annually over '18.

    因此,IHS 剛剛發布了他們今年最新的 SAAR 數據和明年的預測,他們說他們認為 2019 年的 SAAR 比 18 年每年下降 6%。

  • And they estimate about flat for next year.

    他們估計明年基本持平。

  • That's the latest impact we have.

    這是我們的最新影響。

  • So unfortunately, that indeed indicates that it has further deteriorated this year.

    不幸的是,這確實表明它今年進一步惡化。

  • So we had earlier in the year, minus 4%, minus 5%, and now they end up at minus 6% decline for '19.

    所以我們在今年早些時候有負 4%、負 5%,現在它們在 19 年最終下降了負 6%。

  • We have always said that on a quarterly basis, you cannot really benchmark our revenue performance against the SAAR, given all the supply chain effects in-between.

    我們一直說,考慮到中間的所有供應鏈效應,你不能真正將我們的收入表現與 SAAR 進行對比。

  • At the same time, we do continue to clearly say that we have all reason to believe that our business is outgrowing the SAAR synced to the electronic content increase per car.

    與此同時,我們確實繼續明確表示,我們有充分的理由相信我們的業務正在超過與每輛車電子內容增長同步的 SAAR。

  • And I think we are now at a point going into Q4 where it appears that the supply chain should become more or less clean.

    而且我認為我們現在正處於進入第四季度的階段,供應鏈似乎應該或多或少變得乾淨。

  • So our growth, which you see in our business, it becomes more reflective of the true automotive demand from the OEMs.

    因此,您在我們的業務中看到的我們的增長,更加反映了原始設備製造商的真實汽車需求。

  • And that is indeed then leading to a annual, and that's how we look at it, annual growth rate in Q4, which is only minus 2% verses much higher declines in the earlier quarters, like minus 7% and minus 10% in Q3 and Q2.

    這確實導致了年度,這就是我們如何看待它,第四季度的年增長率僅為負2%,而前幾個季度的降幅要高得多,比如第三季度的負7%和負10%, Q2。

  • We don't really guide for next year, Ross.

    羅斯,我們並沒有真正為明年提供指導。

  • And yet, I would say that once the supply chain is clear, we should expect that our growth by content should be reflected again in our numbers, against the SAAR.

    然而,我想說,一旦供應鏈清晰,我們應該期望我們的內容增長應該再次反映在我們的數字中,而不是 SAAR。

  • So there is some optimism here that with a more clean supply chain going forward, we should return to growth based on a flat SAAR.

    因此,這裡有一些樂觀的看法,即隨著供應鏈更加清潔,我們應該在 SAAR 持平的基礎上恢復增長。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • And then from my follow-up question, just wanted to hit on margins, one for Peter.

    然後從我的後續問題來看,只是想提高利潤,給彼得一個。

  • I think overall, people understand the gross margin side, you guys are doing a good job in a tough revenue comp.

    我認為總的來說,人們了解毛利率方面,你們在艱難的收入競爭中做得很好。

  • I was a little surprised the OpEx is going up as much as it is in the fourth quarter, given the discretionary tightness you guys have done so well to control throughout the year.

    考慮到你們全年控制的可自由支配的緊張程度,我對 OpEx 的增長與第四季度一樣多感到有點驚訝。

  • Can you just talk about a little bit about why that's going up, and does the increase in the fourth quarter diminish the size of the increase that we otherwise would have seen in the first quarter sequentially?

    您能否簡單談談為什麼會上升,第四季度的增長是否會減少我們在第一季度連續看到的增長幅度?

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • The single biggest item is actually a positive thing.

    最大的一項實際上是一件積極的事情。

  • We have a really significant number, I think it's actually just a bit over $10 million of tape-outs in excess of what we saw in the third quarter.

    我們有一個非常重要的數字,我認為它實際上只是比我們在第三季度看到的多出 1000 萬美元多一點。

  • And that's the single biggest item, Ross.

    這是最大的一項,羅斯。

  • So we have...

    所以我們有...

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • So it's a good thing.

    所以這是一件好事。

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • It's a good thing, but...

    這是一件好事,但是...

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • We're getting some of our MPIs out and shipping those to customers.

    我們正在推出一些 MPI 並將其運送給客戶。

  • And so there's a cost, obviously, as we take those and put those -- move those towards engagement with customers, Ross.

    因此,很明顯,當我們接受這些並投入這些時,就會產生成本——將這些轉移到與客戶的互動中,羅斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from William Stein with SunTrust.

    我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 William Stein。

  • William Stein - MD

    William Stein - MD

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Just following up on that a little bit.

    只是稍微跟進一下。

  • Peter, can you help us understand, I think we know -- or we're expecting margins to deteriorate a little bit in Q1 as you give price to customers in automotive and you have to incur some incremental accruals on the OpEx side.

    彼得,你能幫助我們理解嗎,我想我們知道——或者我們預計第一季度的利潤率會略有下降,因為你給汽車客戶定價,你必須在運營支出方面產生一些增量應計。

  • Any quantification that will help us modeling sequentially as we think out to Q1?

    當我們考慮到 Q1 時,有什麼量化可以幫助我們按順序建模?

  • And then how that might abate as we -- that effect might abate as we go through the year?

    那麼隨著我們這一年的發展,這種影響可能會如何減弱——這種影響可能會減弱?

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • I -- I mean, clearly, I don't want to guide Q1 at this stage.

    我 - 我的意思是,很明顯,我不想在這個階段指導 Q1。

  • I think you're right, Will, in the sense that from a gross margin perspective, you have the single biggest item is the annual price increases.

    我認為你是對的,威爾,從毛利率的角度來看,你擁有的最大項目是年度價格上漲。

  • And from OpEx, you have a reset on bonus.

    從運營支出中,您可以重置獎金。

  • So as an example, this year, we didn't hit our targets, so the bonus accrual is relatively small and you're probably talking about maybe an average of $10 million a quarter.

    舉個例子,今年,我們沒有達到我們的目標,所以應計獎金相對較少,你可能在談論平均每季度 1000 萬美元。

  • Whereas in 2020, if we were to assume our full bonus, we haven't kind of set all of our targets yet for 2020, you'd be talking more like $35 million a quarter.

    而在 2020 年,如果我們假設我們的全部獎金,我們還沒有設定 2020 年的所有目標,你說的更像是每季度 3500 萬美元。

  • You'd see an $8 million increase roughly for fringe benefits.

    你會看到附加福利大約增加了 800 萬美元。

  • But we should -- I don't think [MATs] cost will be as high as Q1 as they were in Q4.

    但我們應該——我認為 [MATs] 的成本不會像第四季度那樣高。

  • So I'm not sure I'd forecast OpEx lower in Q1 than Q4.

    所以我不確定第一季度的運營支出是否會低於第四季度。

  • But I'm not ready yet to give you an absolute number.

    但我還沒準備好給你一個絕對數字。

  • William Stein - MD

    William Stein - MD

  • It's still really helpful.

    它仍然很有幫助。

  • One follow up if I can.

    如果可以的話,跟進一個。

  • The mobile strength in Q3, it sounds like that was more of a unit's thing than a content thing, relative to your expectations at the start of the quarter.

    相對於您在本季度初的預期,第三季度的移動優勢聽起來更像是一個單位的事情而不是內容的事情。

  • Is that fair?

    這公平嗎?

  • And is the demand -- it sounds like it's a bit more dispersed than concentrated.

    是需求——聽起來它比集中更分散。

  • Maybe you could just provide a little color.

    也許你可以提供一點顏色。

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • I guess the units comes from the content, so they're directly linked.

    我猜這些單位來自內容,所以它們是直接鏈接的。

  • So you can't really separate the 2. I think the good point was, if you recall in Q2, we had our largest Chinese OEM that had a strong uptake as they broaden the deployment of the mobile wallet into more of their portfolio.

    所以你不能真正將 2 分開。我認為好的一點是,如果你在第二季度回想一下,我們擁有最大的中國 OEM,隨著他們將移動錢包的部署擴大到更多的產品組合,我們擁有強大的吸收力。

  • And in Q3, clearly, we had a broader base as well as the -- our Tier 1 customer increased volumes as well.

    顯然,在第三季度,我們擁有更廣泛的基礎,而且我們的一級客戶也增加了銷量。

  • But all the other Chinese customers showed strength in Q3 also.

    但所有其他中國客戶在第三季度也表現出實力。

  • So yes, we had a really strong quarter in Q3.

    所以是的,我們在第三季度有一個非常強勁的季度。

  • And I think it does continue to bode well for the continued deployment associated with the mobile wallet and the uptake associated with it as we project it going into the next couple of years where we think it can be 50% of all the smartphones.

    而且我認為這對於與移動錢包相關的持續部署以及與之相關的吸收來說確實是個好兆頭,因為我們預計它將進入未來幾年,我們認為它可能佔所有智能手機的 50%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Rick, I wanted to ask you a little bit -- given you have sort of a unique vantage point on the whole China-U.

    瑞克,我想問你一點——考慮到你對整個中美有著獨特的優勢。

  • S. trade issues.

    S. 貿易問題。

  • I'm kind of curious how you think that, that is impacting your business.

    我有點好奇你是怎麼想的,這會影響你的業務。

  • There has been some concern in the investment community that perhaps Chinese customers are pulling forward inventory; there's been other sort of checks that would suggest they're trying to keep inventory lean.

    投資界一直擔心中國客戶可能會增加庫存;還有其他類型的檢查表明他們正在努力保持庫存精簡。

  • Clearly, you're not suffering from any bans, but it'd be -- I'd be kind of curious to think whether or not there's a second derivative effect on bans on your revenue as well and how you might think business will trend, if there is a trade resolution?

    顯然,你沒有受到任何禁令的影響,但它會——我有點好奇地想一想禁令是否也會對你的收入產生二次衍生影響,以及你可能認為業務將如何發展,如果有貿易決議?

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, I think if there's trade resolution, it would be very positive.

    好吧,我認為如果有貿易解決方案,那將是非常積極的。

  • So I don't think is there is any doubt about that.

    所以我認為沒有任何疑問。

  • I think though that, we don't see a lot of inventory being put in place.

    我認為儘管如此,我們並沒有看到很多庫存到位。

  • In Q2, as we talked about it, the largest Chinese handset, they clearly were ramping their supply chain as they broaden the portfolio associated with it.

    在第二季度,正如我們所談到的,它是中國最大的手機,他們顯然正在擴大供應鏈,因為他們擴大了與之相關的產品組合。

  • But we didn't see a lot of inventory, it was really associated with their supply chain.

    但是我們沒有看到很多庫存,這確實與他們的供應鏈有關。

  • There has been comments that I've heard about other technologies like FPGAs where some of the Chinese guys were concerned about having adequate supply and put inventory in place.

    我聽說過一些關於 FPGA 等其他技術的評論,其中一些中國人擔心供應充足和庫存到位。

  • But we don't see really a lot of that in the areas that we serve at all, John.

    但在我們所服務的領域中,我們並沒有真正看到很多,約翰。

  • And we think it continues to bode well.

    我們認為這仍然是個好兆頭。

  • Clearly, I think our relationship with the Chinese customers has been positive and will continue to be positive for us going forward.

    顯然,我認為我們與中國客戶的關係一直是積極的,並將繼續對我們的未來產生積極影響。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And then Rick, just to follow up on some of your prepared comments about 5G and the comm infrastructure space.

    然後 Rick,只是為了跟進你準備好的關於 5G 和通信基礎設施空間的一些評論。

  • You guys have kind of put out a 3-year CAGR target for revenue in that space of somewhere between 0% to up 2%.

    你們已經提出了一個 3 年復合年增長率目標,該目標是在 0% 到 2% 之間。

  • Is it fair to say that what you talked about today on the RF Power side and sub-6 is contemplated in that?

    公平地說,您今天在 RF 功率方面和 sub-6 方面談到的內容就是在其中考慮的嗎?

  • But as we go to millimeter wave, it's not?

    但是當我們進入毫米波時,不是嗎?

  • And if that's the case, how might millimeter wave and your opportunity there impact that kind of CAGR that you have out there as a target?

    如果是這樣的話,毫米波和你在那裡的機會會如何影響你作為目標的那種複合年增長率?

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, so John, when we set those targets, we were coming out of a period of several years of declines in both the RF Power and Digital Networking business.

    好吧,約翰,當我們設定這些目標時,我們正經歷射頻功率和數字網絡業務數年下滑的時期。

  • Clearly, with the Digital Networking business going from around $800 million at the time we did the merger with Freescale down to in more like the $500 million range.

    顯然,數字網絡業務從我們與飛思卡爾合併時的 8 億美元左右降至 5 億美元左右。

  • So we did set those conservatively.

    所以我們確實保守地設置了這些。

  • I think what we're talking about, clearly, with the 5G opportunity should increase that growth rate.

    我認為我們正在談論的,顯然,5G 機會應該會提高增長率。

  • But it -- we don't think it'll change the total because it really just gives us room to cover the downturn that we've been through in automotive and industrial and still have the confidence in achieving our 5% to 7% compounded growth rate going forward.

    但是它——我們認為它不會改變總數,因為它真的只是讓我們有空間來應對我們在汽車和工業領域所經歷的低迷,並且仍然有信心實現 5% 到 7% 的複合增長率未來的增長率。

  • I do think that there is a real opportunity, as we talked about, for low teens growth rate in RF Power business with 5G deployment over the next few years, and with our leadership position, puts in a good position.

    正如我們所談到的,我確實認為,未來幾年射頻功率業務的低青少年增長率與 5G 部署存在真正的機會,並且憑藉我們的領導地位,我們處於有利地位。

  • And we're just making some early investments in the last mile with some of the customer engagements that could bode very well as well and end up with a couple hundred million dollars a year of revenue in the not too distant future.

    我們只是在最後一英里進行一些早期投資,一些客戶參與可能是個好兆頭,並最終在不久的將來每年獲得數億美元的收入。

  • So all of that's positive, but we're just kind of leaving our growth rates that we set a year and a half or so ago intact and not really changing those by piece at this point, John.

    所以所有這些都是積極的,但我們只是保持我們大約一年半前設定的增長率不變,而不是在這一點上真正改變這些,約翰。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Blayne Curtis。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to go back on the auto segment.

    我只是想回到汽車領域。

  • You mentioned, I think, the growth rate is growing teens.

    你提到,我認為,增長率正在增長青少年。

  • Just kind of curious with the -- you also mentioned the stabilization.

    只是有點好奇——你還提到了穩定性。

  • And with improving SAAR next year, the growth that you're seeing or the better than seasonal, I guess, in December you're seeing -- are you seeing any restocking of kind of the core components?

    隨著明年 SAAR 的改善,您看到的增長或比季節性更好的增長,我猜,您在 12 月看到的 - 您是否看到任何核心組件的補貨?

  • Or is the outperformance led by the growth areas?

    或者是增長領域的領先表現?

  • Kurt Sievers - President

    Kurt Sievers - President

  • Blayne, this is Kurt.

    布萊恩,這是庫爾特。

  • I -- first of all, let me slightly correct what you just said.

    我——首先,讓我稍微糾正一下你剛才說的話。

  • I think I didn't say that IHS talked about an improvement in SAAR next year; they see a flat SAAR on the low level which was achieved at the end of this year.

    我想我並沒有說 IHS 談到了明年 SAAR 的改進。他們看到今年年底實現的低水平 SAAR 持平。

  • I think it's a minor but maybe important detail.

    我認為這是一個次要但可能很重要的細節。

  • When you think about us, indeed, I'd say that the improvements you are seeing is probably not restocking, but it's just that the consumption reflects more the end demand.

    實際上,當您想到我們時,我會說您看到的改進可能不是補貨,而是消費更多地反映了最終需求。

  • Where earlier, at least in our business with smaller accounts and through distribution, it was marked by building down inventories.

    在早期,至少在我們擁有較小賬戶和通過分銷的業務中,它的特點是庫存減少。

  • And that appears to possibly be over now, which means we just see the real demand coming back again.

    這似乎現在可能已經結束,這意味著我們只是看到真正的需求再次回來。

  • I would be careful to say that's already restocking, probably not.

    我會小心地說那已經在補貨,可能不是。

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • If I could just add something, I think one of the things if you look at it, Blayne, and look at IHS projections, first half of '20 will be slightly up from second half of '19.

    如果我可以添加一些東西,我認為其中一件事,如果你看看它,Blayne,看看 IHS 的預測,20 年上半年將比 19 年下半年略有上升。

  • So that says we've kind of gotten to a minimum run rate based on their projections now.

    這就是說我們現在已經根據他們的預測達到了最低運行速度。

  • And then they'll see a resumption of growth in the second half of '20.

    然後他們將看到 20 年下半年恢復增長。

  • So -- but I do think that when you look at some of our customers in China and other places that we serve through distribution, we are beginning to see a little more of an uptick, which I think means that they've kind of worked their way through their inventory basis and we're beginning to see a little more of a positive perspective associated with it.

    所以——但我確實認為,當你查看我們在中國和我們通過分銷服務的其他地方的一些客戶時,我們開始看到更多的上升,我認為這意味著他們有點工作他們通過他們的庫存基礎,我們開始看到更多與之相關的積極觀點。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • And I just want to ask on the WiFi transition -- or transaction.

    我只是想問一下 WiFi 過渡——或交易。

  • You had targeted Q1 close, but thought might you could do a little earlier.

    您的目標是第一季度結束,但認為您可以早一點做。

  • It sounds like you're waiting for Taiwan.

    聽起來你在等台灣。

  • Just curious if you expect to close that in December, and if anything is in the guidance from that.

    只是好奇您是否希望在 12 月關閉它,以及是否有任何指導。

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Nothing is in the guidance.

    指導中沒有任何內容。

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • Nothing is in the guidance.

    指導中沒有任何內容。

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Nothing is in the guidance, and we would anticipate closing it sooner than first quarter.

    指導中沒有任何內容,我們預計會在第一季度之前關閉它。

  • But given the fact that there is a process in Taiwan that we really don't have clear insight into how long it will take, it would be inappropriate for us to really second-guess the actual timing.

    但考慮到台灣有一個過程,我們真的不清楚需要多長時間,所以我們不應該對實際時間進行真正的猜測。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to talk about, first, just the language in the release, it is a little bit improved.

    我想談談,首先,只是版本中的語言,它有點改進。

  • This is the first time I heard you talk about short-term demand environment stabilizing...

    這是我第一次聽你說短期需求環境趨於穩定...

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Stacy, you're kind of cutting out.

    斯泰西,你有點過分了。

  • We can't really hear you.

    我們真的聽不見你的聲音。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • I'm sorry, can you hear me now?

    對不起,你現在能聽到我的聲音嗎?

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, perfect.

    是的,完美。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • Let's try that again.

    讓我們再試一次。

  • So the language in the release has obviously a little bit improved this time.

    所以這次發布中的語言顯然有了一點改進。

  • I haven't heard you talk about short-term demand environment stabilizing for a while.

    好久沒聽你說短期需求環境企穩了。

  • At the same time, we're hearing a fair amount about sort of the distie challenges bottoming.

    與此同時,我們聽到了相當多的關於 distie 挑戰觸底的消息。

  • Is this statement just purely a channel statement that things have sort of bottomed in terms of the inventory flush, and we're just more representative now of end-to-end?

    這個聲明是否純粹是一種渠道聲明,即在庫存沖洗方面事情已經觸底,我們現在只是更具代表性的端到端?

  • Or are you actually seeing, to the extent that you have any visibility, actual improvement in customer end demand at this point?

    或者,在您有任何可見性的情況下,您是否真的看到了此時客戶端需求的實際改善?

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • So I think, Stacy, what we're seeing is, we've seen things stabilize, and we've seen some pockets of improvement or increased orders.

    所以我認為,史黛西,我們看到的是,我們已經看到情況穩定了,我們看到了一些改進或增加的訂單。

  • But really what we're trying to point to is the fact that if you look at it in our industrial and IoT segment, we were mid-teens year-over-year decline through the first 3 quarters of this year.

    但我們真正想要指出的是,如果你從我們的工業和物聯網領域來看,今年前 3 個季度的同比下降幅度為十幾歲左右。

  • And if you look at the midpoint of our projection, we'll be kind of mid-single digit.

    如果您查看我們投影的中點,我們將是中個位數。

  • So that's definitely a significant improvement.

    所以這絕對是一個顯著的改進。

  • And if you look at automotive, it's been kind of high single-digit decline year-over-year through the first 3 quarters.

    如果你看一下汽車,前三個季度的同比下降幅度是個位數。

  • And what we're -- at the midpoint, we're kind of at a 2% decline.

    我們現在的情況——在中點,我們有點下降了 2%。

  • So I think that's really what we're trying to talk about.

    所以我認為這正是我們想要談論的。

  • That's the basic indicator that we have that things are improving is based on the run rates that we have from our customers and their demands, we see that improving.

    這是我們的基本指標,表明情況正在改善,這是基於我們從客戶那裡獲得的運行率及其需求,我們看到這種改善。

  • Now you also have to look at our mobile and communications and infrastructure to get to the total.

    現在,您還必須查看我們的移動、通信和基礎設施才能得出總數。

  • And in total, we've been -- if you adjust for the MSA that we changed in the accounting, we've been kind of mid-single digit with the exception of Q2 where we were a little less than that.

    總的來說,我們一直 - 如果你調整我們在會計中改變的 MSA,除了第二季度我們略低於那個之外,我們一直是中等個位數。

  • And we'll be kind of -- we'll have a couple points improvement in the total even with a little bit of down take in the communications and mobile in Q4.

    而且我們會有點 - 即使在第四季度的通信和移動方面略有下降,我們也會在總數上提高幾分。

  • But -- so I think we clearly have seen a stabilization in some pockets of improved demand, in increased demand, but not anything that would lead us to really talk about a robust recovery underway at this point.

    但是 - 所以我認為我們顯然已經看到一些需求改善和需求增加的情況趨於穩定,但沒有任何事情可以讓我們真正談論此時正在發生的強勁復甦。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • And maybe to follow up on that on the longer term.

    也許從長遠來看會跟進。

  • Are you still holding to your longer-term growth, what was it, 5% to 7% (inaudible)...

    你還在堅持你的長期增長嗎,它是什麼,5% 到 7%(聽不清)......

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • We lost you again, Stacy.

    我們又失去了你,史黛西。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Can you hear me now?

    你能聽到我嗎?

  • This is very strange.

    這很奇怪。

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • Very strange.

    很奇怪。

  • To follow up on that.

    跟進。

  • Your long-term growth target is still being articulated, 5% to 7%, you're holding to it.

    你的長期增長目標仍在製定中,5% 到 7%,你會堅持下去。

  • Now that was originally put forth as a CAGR, it was 2018 to 2021 and obviously we've got a -- it's -- we've got a decline in 2019.

    現在它最初是作為複合年增長率提出的,它是 2018 年到 2021 年,顯然我們已經 - 它是 - 我們在 2019 年有所下降。

  • So what is the right way to think about this growth model given the new starting point?

    那麼,在新的起點下,思考這種增長模式的正確方法是什麼?

  • is it 5% to 7% off of the base we've seen in 2019?

    它是否比我們在 2019 年看到的基數下降了 5% 到 7%?

  • Or do you still think that we can get something closer to that 3-year CAGR off the 2018, which would imply more growth in 2020 and 2021?

    還是您仍然認為我們可以在 2018 年之後更接近 3 年的複合年增長率,這意味著 2020 年和 2021 年會有更多的增長?

  • And I guess if that's the case, what would be the drivers of that?

    我想如果是這樣的話,驅動因素是什麼?

  • Like how do we think about that long-term growth model in the context of where we're starting from?

    比如,在我們從哪裡開始的背景下,我們如何看待這種長期增長模式?

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • So, Stacy, I think what we're committed to is the 5% to 7% growth rate.

    所以,史黛西,我認為我們承諾的是 5% 到 7% 的增長率。

  • We said the categories may be different than what we talked about 1.5 years ago, as we look at that.

    我們說這些類別可能與我們在 1.5 年前談論的不同,因為我們看到了這一點。

  • We may not be able to quite achieve what we had laid out at the high end of automotive or the high end of industrial based on the fact that we've gone through this downturn.

    基於我們經歷了這次低迷的事實,我們可能無法完全實現我們在汽車高端或工業高端的佈局。

  • The positive thing is, mobile is growing quite nicely with the increased mobile wallet deployment as well as now ultra-wideband beginning to be shipping next year and in 2021.

    積極的一面是,隨著移動錢包部署的增加以及現在超寬帶將於明年和 2021 年開始出貨,移動設備的增長非常好。

  • And clearly, the 5G deployment gives us some upside.

    顯然,5G 部署給我們帶來了一些好處。

  • I mean that could drive that 0% to 2% to kind of high single-digit growth potentially.

    我的意思是,這可能會推動 0% 到 2% 的潛在高個位數增長。

  • But in total, we still are committed to the 5% to 7% growth rate.

    但總的來說,我們仍然致力於 5% 到 7% 的增長率。

  • And I think the key is, is that we have different knobs to turn to be sure that we can achieve that and accomplish that.

    我認為關鍵是,我們有不同的旋鈕可以轉動,以確保我們能夠實現這一目標並實現這一目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Craig Hettenbach with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Craig Hettenbach。

  • Craig Matthew Hettenbach - VP

    Craig Matthew Hettenbach - VP

  • Just a question, Kurt.

    只是一個問題,庫爾特。

  • Any update on BMS and in particular, things that you would highlight versus some of the incumbents that you think you're doing just from a future set perspective?

    BMS 的任何更新,特別是,您會強調的事情與您認為您正在做的一些現任者只是從未來設定的角度來看?

  • Kurt Sievers - President

    Kurt Sievers - President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thanks, Craig.

    謝謝,克雷格。

  • Well, the update is that we are on track, which is definitely good news.

    好吧,更新是我們正在走上正軌,這絕對是個好消息。

  • And I think we have all seen in Q3 a very large European OEM making a major announcement about their commitments, relative to new electric vehicles coming out.

    而且我認為我們都在第三季度看到了一家非常大的歐洲 OEM 就他們的承諾做出了重大宣布,相對於新電動汽車的推出。

  • And as we have kind of signposted earlier, we are quite a bit involved in this, not in one model, but actually across the board.

    正如我們之前所指出的那樣,我們參與了很多,不是在一個模型中,而是在整個過程中。

  • So if you will, this is a very clear evidence on our success over incumbents with one of the most, I would say, bullish commitments from a car company into building electric vehicles.

    因此,如果你願意的話,這是一個非常明確的證據,證明我們在現有企業中取得了成功,我想說的是,汽車公司對製造電動汽車的承諾是最樂觀的。

  • And that starts shipping as we speak.

    正如我們所說,這開始發貨。

  • So I mean this is not just somewhere in the future, but actually the first models out of that whole fleet across the couple of brands of that OEM are shipping as we speak.

    所以我的意思是,這不僅僅是在未來的某個地方,實際上,正如我們所說,該 OEM 的幾個品牌的整個車隊中的第一批車型正在發貨。

  • So what that means below the line is, we are on track to our BMS rollout, as we have discussed earlier, with pretty high growth rate into the next few years.

    因此,這意味著,正如我們之前討論的那樣,我們正在按計劃推出 BMS,未來幾年的增長率將相當高。

  • Let me just highlight, Craig, that we -- while we speak a lot about this one OEM and since the public announcement, that's very convenient for us to speak about it, we have a significantly broader base of design wins, too.

    讓我強調一下,克雷格,我們 - 雖然我們談論了很多關於這家 OEM 的事情,而且自從公開聲明以來,這對我們來說談論它非常方便,我們也擁有更廣泛的設計勝利基礎。

  • Differentiators against incumbents remain to be ASIL-D functional safety performance on a system level as well as the scalability, given our approach with microcontrollers and analog high-precision front ends.

    鑑於我們採用微控制器和模擬高精度前端的方法,與現有企業的區別仍然是系統級別的 ASIL-D 功能安全性能以及可擴展性。

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • And I guess the only thing I would add to that, Craig, is we follow -- I follow, personally, the announcement by some of the incumbents and always track that.

    克雷格,我想我唯一要補充的就是我們遵循——我個人遵循一些現任者的聲明,並始終跟踪它。

  • And every time we go back and look at it, we still think that we have a superior performance and a better product than some of the announcements that they're making.

    每次我們回過頭來看它,我們仍然認為我們擁有比他們發布的一些公告更出色的性能和更好的產品。

  • Craig Matthew Hettenbach - VP

    Craig Matthew Hettenbach - VP

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And just a follow-up for Peter.

    只是彼得的後續行動。

  • Understanding there's still some headwinds from the revenue on the gross margin line.

    了解毛利率線上的收入仍然存在一些不利因素。

  • Can you talk about just some of the levers you've been pulling to improve gross margin, and also maybe some benefits of mix over the next 12 to 18 months?

    您能否談談您為提高毛利率而一直在使用的一些槓桿,以及未來 12 到 18 個月混合的一些好處?

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think they're the same things.

    我認為它們是相同的東西。

  • I think in the long term, so over the next few years, our mix definitely helps us.

    我認為從長遠來看,所以在接下來的幾年裡,我們的組合肯定會對我們有所幫助。

  • As we look at kind of the MPIs that are coming out, you're not going to suddenly see us jump, but you'll see gradual improvements in gross margin in the long term.

    當我們查看即將推出的 MPI 時,您不會突然看到我們跳升,但從長遠來看,您會看到毛利率逐漸提高。

  • In the short term, it's all about blocking and tackling, making sure our partners give us the right pricing, making sure we're managing yields, test times, all that good stuff.

    在短期內,一切都是為了阻止和解決問題,確保我們的合作夥伴給我們正確的定價,確保我們管理產量、測試時間,以及所有這些好東西。

  • To be honest, the issue I have at the moment is, we have a long-term model of 55% to 57%.

    老實說,我目前的問題是,我們有一個 55% 到 57% 的長期模型。

  • I'd really like to get to 55% for full year 2020.

    我真的很想在 2020 年全年達到 55%。

  • But with the current market environment and the -- I'd say, the lack of visibility rather than visibility we have, it's hard to see how we do that really.

    但是在當前的市場環境和 - 我會說,缺乏可見性而不是我們所擁有的可見性,很難看出我們是如何做到這一點的。

  • And you saw that in Q4.

    你在第四季度看到了這一點。

  • So I do need -- I hate to admit it, but I do need a pickup in volume to be able to get to the 55% level.

    所以我確實需要——我不想承認,但我確實需要增加音量才能達到 55% 的水平。

  • And I'm surprised you didn't ask the question, one of the questions we were anticipating from you guys is, given revenue was towards the higher end of the guidance in Q3, why didn't gross margin improve a little bit above the guidance of 53.7%?

    我很驚訝你沒有問這個問題,我們期待你們提出的問題之一是,鑑於第三季度的收入接近指引的高端,為什麼毛利率沒有提高一點點53.7%的指導?

  • And the answer to that is our assembly and test -- internal assembly and test utilization was weaker than we thought in Q3.

    答案是我們的組裝和測試——內部組裝和測試的利用率比我們在第三季度想像的要弱。

  • Now to be honest, 30 basis points is $6 million.

    現在說實話,30 個基點是 600 萬美元。

  • So it's not that big a number anyway.

    所以無論如何,這並不是一個很大的數字。

  • But on the current environment, running the levels of revenue we have, it makes it really, really tough to get the revenue up, but I believe after-market does come back, we'll be able to get there.

    但是在目前的環境下,按照我們的收入水平,要提高收入真的非常困難,但我相信售後市場確實會回來,我們將能夠做到這一點。

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Craig, just to be specific, I think our long-term target is 53% to 57%.

    克雷格,具體來說,我認為我們的長期目標是 53% 到 57%。

  • We talked about 55% in the near term, but...

    我們在短期內談到了 55%,但是......

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • Oh, did I say 55%?

    哦,我說的是 55% 嗎?

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • You said 55%.

    你說55%。

  • Just a point to clarify.

    只是要澄清一點。

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Sorry, 53% to 57%, 55% the midpoint.

    對不起,53% 到 57%,55% 中點。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • But utilization will be key to that as well.

    但利用率也將是關鍵。

  • And I think that's an important element of our continued gross margin improvement.

    我認為這是我們持續提高毛利率的一個重要因素。

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • And that's an impact of just revenue and managing our inventory and all that good stuff.

    這只是收入和管理我們的庫存以及所有好東西的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from C.J Muse with Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自於 Evercore 的 C.J Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess first question, one of the more encouraging, I guess, data points coming out of your 10-Q, is that your OEM sales were flat year-on-year, while distie sales down 10%.

    我想第一個問題,我想,您的 10-Q 數據點中更令人鼓舞的一個問題是,您的 OEM 銷售額與去年同期持平,而 distie 銷售額下降了 10%。

  • So I guess 2-part question there.

    所以我猜那裡有兩部分的問題。

  • One, are you comfortable with where we are from a distie inventory perspective?

    第一,從 distie 庫存的角度來看,您對我們所處的位置感到滿意嗎?

  • And then two, as you see a recovery at least standing here today, do you think it'll be distie or OEM-led?

    然後兩個,當您看到至少今天站在這裡的複蘇時,您認為它將是由 distie 還是由 OEM 主導?

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, I think your point is -- it's a great observation, that most of the weakness that we have comes out of distribution.

    好吧,我認為你的觀點是 - 這是一個很好的觀察,我們的大部分弱點都來自分發。

  • If you look at what we've done on the distribution inventory, we've significantly reduced the inventory over the last few quarters to be able to maintain that 2.4 months and actually down at 2.3 months in the Q3 time frame, which we would anticipate would go back to the 2.4 months in Q4.

    如果您查看我們在分銷庫存方面所做的工作,我們在過去幾個季度中大幅減少了庫存,以便能夠維持 2.4 個月,實際上在第三季度時間框架內下降到 2.3 個月,這是我們預期的將回到第四季度的 2.4 個月。

  • We actually had some late shipments out on POS, late in the quarter that actually allowed our inventory to go down to the 2.3 months.

    實際上,我們在本季度末期的 POS 上有一些延遲發貨,這實際上使我們的庫存下降到 2.3 個月。

  • I think that we'll see a -- we will see an uptick in distribution.

    我認為我們會看到 - 我們會看到分佈增加。

  • I think it has tended, as you pointed out, to be more volatile than the OEM side.

    正如您所指出的,我認為它往往比 OEM 方面更不穩定。

  • And I think it will be more relevant towards the uptick associated with it.

    而且我認為這將與與之相關的上升更相關。

  • But as far as inventories, I think we're in good shape.

    但就庫存而言,我認為我們狀況良好。

  • And I don't think there is any issue associated with that, but I would anticipate that, that will be one of the early points where we'll see a real improvement in the total revenue.

    我認為這沒有任何問題,但我預計這將是我們看到總收入真正改善的早期階段之一。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Very helpful.

    很有幫助。

  • As my follow-up, and I know -- don't want to guide to Q1, so not asking near term.

    作為我的後續行動,我知道 - 不想指導 Q1,所以不要問近期。

  • But as you think about just, generally, for 2020 and you look at your mobile business and the increased attach rate of secure mobile wallet, how are you thinking about and what does your visibility look like today into the growth vector into 2020?

    但是,當您考慮到 2020 年的總體情況並查看您的移動業務以及安全移動錢包的附加率增加時,您如何考慮以及您今天對 2020 年增長向量的可見性如何?

  • Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

    Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

  • Kurt, you want to take that?

    庫爾特,你想拿那個嗎?

  • Kurt Sievers - President

    Kurt Sievers - President

  • I would say we are confident that the attach rate increase -- which is actually what is driving our mobile growth, attach rate increase of mobile wallets and [other shaded] applications does continue.

    我想說我們相信附加率的增長——這實際上是推動我們移動增長的原因,移動錢包和[其他陰影]應用程序的附加率增長確實會繼續。

  • I mean, there could always be quarterly fluctuations, mobile has a lot of seasonality.

    我的意思是,總是會有季度波動,移動有很多季節性。

  • But from a year-over-year perspective, we are very well on track with what we said in our Analyst Day last year that we see the attach rate growing from, I think we said 30% to 50% over the next 3 years.

    但從同比的角度來看,我們非常符合去年分析師日所說的,我們看到附加率從未來 3 年增長 30% 到 50%。

  • And we actually did a check earlier, how are we on that journey.

    實際上,我們之前確實進行了檢查,我們在這段旅程中的情況如何。

  • And it looks like we can be confident that we are very well on track on the journey, and that would indicate that the growth should reasonably continue.

    看起來我們可以確信我們在旅途中非常順利,這表明增長應該合理地繼續。

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • I think, C.J., one of the things that will be really interesting in the second half next year is -- as we begin to ship ultra-wideband, it just solidifies that position in mobile and solidifies our position with the mobile wallet.

    我認為,C.J.,明年下半年真正有趣的一件事是——隨著我們開始推出超寬帶,它鞏固了移動領域的地位,鞏固了我們在移動錢包方面的地位。

  • So I think that will be a significant contributing factor for us and continue to demonstrate our leadership as well as solidifying our overall position.

    因此,我認為這對我們來說將是一個重要因素,並繼續展示我們的領導力並鞏固我們的整體地位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James.

    我們的最後一個問題來自 Chris Caso 和 Raymond James。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • Just a follow-up question on the gross margin.

    只是關於毛利率的後續問題。

  • And Peter, last quarter, you talked about getting to -- the potential of getting to a 55% quarterly run rate on about flat year-on-year revenue, would suggest around the $2.4 billion level.

    彼得,上個季度,你談到了達到 - 在同比收入基本持平的情況下達到 55% 的季度運行率的潛力,將暗示大約 24 億美元的水平。

  • Is that still the right way to think about it going forward kind of once we kind of get to that revenue level, that's when we get that on a quarterly basis and obviously, the full year falls (inaudible)?

    一旦我們達到那個收入水平,那仍然是考慮它的正確方法嗎?那是我們按季度獲得的時候,很明顯,全年下降(聽不清)?

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • Yes, yes.

    是的是的。

  • (inaudible).

    (聽不清)。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Sorry, I said, yes.

    對不起,我說,是的。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • That's all right.

    沒關係。

  • Quick answer.

    快速回答。

  • Just...

    只是...

  • Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

    Peter Kelly - CFO, Executive VP of Strategy, M&A and Integration

  • It was kind of a rhetorical question, really.

    這是一個反問,真的。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • Right.

    對。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • The follow on from that is, there's been some talk with some of the trade tensions that some of the Chinese customers perhaps are tending to favor some of the non-U.

    接下來是一些貿易緊張局勢的討論,一些中國客戶可能傾向於支持一些非美國客戶。

  • S. solutions, given some of the trade situations and security of supply and such.

    S. 解決方案,考慮到一些貿易情況和供應安全等。

  • Is that something you're tending to see in your business now?

    這是您現在傾向於在您的業務中看到的東西嗎?

  • And going forward, do you think that provides you with somewhat of an advantage being domiciled outside the U.S.?

    展望未來,您認為這是否為您在美國以外的地方提供了一些優勢?

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • No, seriously, I think in -- with discussions with our customers, I think they appreciate the complexities of dealing with different-sourced technology.

    不,說真的,我認為在與我們的客戶討論時,我認為他們欣賞處理不同來源技術的複雜性。

  • And I think they have a lot of discussions about trying to move some of their production to us as well as other non-U.

    我認為他們有很多關於試圖將他們的一些作品轉移到我們以及其他非美國的討論。

  • S. sourced IP providers.

    S. 採購的 IP 提供商。

  • So we think that could be positive.

    所以我們認為這可能是積極的。

  • Obviously, that doesn't happen overnight or immediately, but it takes a period of time associated with it.

    顯然,這不會在一夜之間或立即發生,而是需要一段時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session.

    女士們,先生們,我們的問答環節到此結束。

  • I will now like to turn the call back over to Rick Clemmer for any closing remarks.

    我現在想將電話轉回給 Rick Clemmer 進行任何結束語。

  • Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

    Richard L. Clemmer - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thank you very much, operator.

    非常感謝您,接線員。

  • So thanks for joining us today.

    所以感謝您今天加入我們。

  • Obviously, we feel better than we did in previous quarters with the stability we see and are encouraged about the fact that year-over-year decline is significantly reduced with our guidance in Q4 and puts us in a solid position to get ready to move into 2020 with a ramp up of new products that will continue to differentiate NXP and show our leadership in deploying technology to be able to drive solutions for our customers.

    顯然,由於我們看到的穩定性,我們感覺比前幾個季度要好,並且對我們在第四季度的指導下同比下降顯著減少這一事實感到鼓舞,並使我們處於準備進入的穩固位置2020 年,隨著新產品的增加,恩智浦將繼續脫穎而出,並展示我們在部署技術方面的領導地位,以便為我們的客戶提供解決方案。

  • So thank you very much for your support, and have a good day.

    所以非常感謝您的支持,祝您有美好的一天。

  • Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

    Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you, everyone.

    謝謝大家。

  • Thank you, Daniel.

    謝謝你,丹尼爾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Thank you for participating.

    感謝您的參與。

  • You may now disconnect.

    您現在可以斷開連接。