恩智浦 (NXPI) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q3 2018 NXP Semiconductors Earnings Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 2018 年第三季度恩智浦半導體收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Jeff Palmer, VP of Investor Relations.

我現在想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Palmer。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Thanks, Ahmani, and good morning to everyone.

謝謝，Ahmani，大家早上好。

Welcome to the NXP Semiconductors Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加恩智浦半導體 2018 年第三季度財報電話會議。

With me on the call today is Rick Clemmer, our CEO; and Peter Kelly, our CFO.

今天與我通話的是我們的首席執行官 Rick Clemmer；和我們的首席財務官彼得凱利。

If you've not obtained a copy of our third quarter 2018 earnings press release, it can be found at our company website under the Investor Relations section at nxp.com.

如果您尚未獲得我們 2018 年第三季度收益新聞稿的副本，可以在我們公司網站的 nxp.com 投資者關係部分下找到它。

Additionally, we've posted on our Investor Relations website a supplemental earnings summary presentation and a document of our historical financials to assist you in your modeling efforts.

此外，我們還在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了一份補充收益摘要演示文稿和一份我們的歷史財務文件，以幫助您進行建模工作。

This call is being recorded and will be available for replay from our corporate website.

此通話正在錄音中，可從我們的公司網站重播。

Our call today will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

我們今天的電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致恩智浦的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。

These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the macroeconomic impact on the specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for financial results for the fourth quarter of 2018.

這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於關於宏觀經濟對我們經營所在的特定終端市場的影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們對 2018 年第四季度財務業績的預期的聲明。

Please be reminded that NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements.

請注意，恩智浦不承擔公開修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

For a full disclosure on our forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release today.

有關我們前瞻性陳述的完整披露，請參閱我們今天的新聞稿。

Additionally, during our call today, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude the impact of purchase price accounting, restructuring, stock-based compensation, impairment, merger-related costs and other charges that are primarily driven by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance.

此外，在我們今天的電話會議中，我們將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，其中不包括購買價格會計、重組、基於股票的補償、減值、合併相關成本和其他主要由離散驅動的費用的影響管理層認為與恩智浦的基礎核心運營業績沒有直接關係的事件。

Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to most directly comparable GAAP measures in our third quarter 2018 press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 6-K and be available on NXP's website in the Investor Relations section.

根據 G 條例，恩智浦在 2018 年第三季度新聞稿中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬，該新聞稿將通過表格 6-K 提供給 SEC，並可在恩智浦網站的投資者關係部分。

I'd like to now turn the call over to Rick.

我現在想把電話轉給 Rick。

Thanks, Jeff, and welcome, everyone, to our conference call today.

謝謝，傑夫，歡迎大家參加我們今天的電話會議。

Overall, our revenue growth in the third quarter was good, and our results were better than our guidance.

總體而言，我們第三季度的收入增長良好，我們的業績好於我們的預期。

We resumed our buyback program, and as of yesterday, we have now returned just under $5 billion to our owners and also initiated a $0.25 per share cash dividend.

我們恢復了我們的回購計劃，截至昨天，我們已經向我們的所有者返還了不到 50 億美元，並且還發起了每股 0.25 美元的現金股息。

Our outlook for the fourth quarter reflects a wider-than-normal top line revenue range due to the cloudy demand environment.

由於多雲的需求環境，我們對第四季度的展望反映了高於正常的收入範圍。

Our top line revenue expectations are driven by content gains, which, combined with improved operating expense control and lower share count, should result in earnings above analysts' expectations.

我們的收入預期受到內容收益的推動，再加上運營費用控制的改善和股票數量的減少，應該會導致收益高於分析師的預期。

Before we discuss the details of the third quarter, we'd like to make a few comments on the trends we're seeing in our business.

在我們討論第三季度的細節之前，我們想對我們在業務中看到的趨勢發表一些評論。

We do not have any unique insight into the macroeconomic environment.

我們對宏觀經濟環境沒有任何獨特的見解。

We can only speak to what our customers and supply chain partners are telling us and what in turn is reflected in our order books.

我們只能談論我們的客戶和供應鏈合作夥伴告訴我們的內容，以及我們的訂單簿中反映的內容。

We've realized there is a significant amount of investor angst about the next couple of quarters in the semiconductor market.

我們已經意識到，未來幾個季度的半導體市場存在大量投資者焦慮。

What we've seen in the automotive market is a modest slowdown primarily due to the WLTP testing bottlenecks in Europe and lower car sales in China.

我們在汽車市場看到的是適度放緩，這主要是由於歐洲的 WLTP 測試瓶頸和中國汽車銷量的下降。

As it pertains to the industrial MCU market, we've seen a slight sequential weakening of order rates through distribution in China, which we believe reflects the heightened sense of caution by our customers on placing orders, given the shifting in the uncertain landscape in global trade and tariffs.

由於涉及工業 MCU 市場，我們看到通過中國分銷的訂單率略有下降，我們認為這反映了鑑於全球不確定格局的變化，我們的客戶在下訂單時更加謹慎。貿易和關稅。

To be clear, we have not experienced any weakness in the typical leading indicators, including unusual backlog cancellations or any program cancellations.

需要明確的是，我們在典型的領先指標中沒有遇到任何弱點，包括異常的積壓取消或任何計劃取消。

It is also not clear to us that there is any excess NXP inventory in our customer supply chain.

我們也不清楚我們的客戶供應鏈中是否存在任何多餘的恩智浦庫存。

In summary, while the environment is uncertain, we feel customer demand is okay, and we are making the right product development investments, which are aligned with the right customer engagements.

總而言之，雖然環境不確定，但我們認為客戶需求還可以，我們正在做出正確的產品開發投資，這與正確的客戶互動相一致。

Taken together, we are confident that we will successfully achieve our strategic and financial goals as presented at our recent Analyst Day.

總而言之，我們相信我們將成功實現我們在最近的分析師日上提出的戰略和財務目標。

Now looking at the specifics of the third quarter.

現在看第三季度的具體情況。

Total revenue was $2.45 billion, an increase of 2% year-over-year.

總收入為 24.5 億美元，同比增長 2%。

Our HPMS segment revenue was $2.35 billion, up 3% year-on-year.

我們的 HPMS 部門收入為 23.5 億美元，同比增長 3%。

On an operating segment perspective, automotive third quarter revenue was $990 million, up 4% year-on-year, with advanced analog and RADAR contributing to the year-on-year growth, while reduced pulls of automotive MCUs from Tier 1 customers impacted the overall year-on-year growth we've been experiencing.

從運營部門的角度來看，汽車第三季度收入為 9.9 億美元，同比增長 4%，高級模擬和雷達推動了同比增長，而來自一級客戶的汽車 MCU 拉動減少影響了我們一直在經歷的整體同比增長。

Looking forward, design win momentum continues to be strong.

展望未來，設計製胜勢頭繼續強勁。

In strategic areas like our S32 family of next-generation automotive MCUs, RADAR transceivers and battery management systems, the design win momentum is just explosive.

在我們的 S32 系列下一代汽車 MCU、RADAR 收發器和電池管理系統等戰略領域，設計獲胜勢頭簡直是爆炸性的。

Within Secure Connected Devices, or SCD, third quarter revenue was $717 million, up 1% year-on-year, driven by the continued demand for general-purpose multimarket MCUs, which were up high single digit, somewhat offset by a significant decline in demand for mobile transaction solutions due to a strong new customer ramp during the previous year 2017.

在安全連接設備 (SCD) 中，第三季度收入為 7.17 億美元，同比增長 1%，這主要得益於對通用多市場 MCU 的持續需求，這些 MCU 呈高個位數增長，但在一定程度上被由於 2017 年新客戶的強勁增長，對移動交易解決方案的需求。

We continued to see solid design win momentum with our MCU and application process or portfolio.

我們繼續通過我們的 MCU 和應用程序流程或產品組合看到穩固的設計贏得勢頭。

We've recently announced the new i.MX RT600 crossover processor, and the customer interest is very strong.

我們最近發布了新的 i.MX RT600 跨界處理器，客戶的興趣非常濃厚。

We continued to innovate in the mobile transaction area with our new integrated single-chip secure element and embedded NFC radio, which is ramping into high volume on new phones this year.

我們通過新的集成單芯片安全元件和嵌入式 NFC 無線電繼續在移動交易領域進行創新，今年將在新手機上大批量生產。

We also extended our thought leadership in mobile security into the IoT security space.

我們還將我們在移動安全方面的思想領導地位擴展到了物聯網安全領域。

We see strong customer activity with our new A71 security family, which is aimed at providing in-node security for IoT cloud-connected devices like video cameras, smart home gateways and industrial PLC controllers.

我們看到我們新的 A71 安全系列的客戶活動強勁，該系列旨在為攝像機、智能家居網關和工業 PLC 控制器等物聯網雲連接設備提供節點內安全。

in Secure Interface & Infrastructure, or SI&I, third quarter revenue was $511 million, up 5% year-on-year, due to the early 5G network trial deployments at our North American carriers.

在安全接口和基礎設施 (SI&I) 方面，由於我們北美運營商的早期 5G 網絡試驗部署，第三季度收入為 5.11 億美元，同比增長 5%。

Our customers view NXP as having the broadest portfolio of RF technologies, brand for structured applications, spanning LDMOS and GaN high-power amplifiers for traditional macro base stations, with massive MIMO and millimeter wave products for the last mile applications.

我們的客戶認為恩智浦擁有最廣泛的射頻技術組合、結構化應用品牌、跨越傳統宏基站的 LDMOS 和 GaN 大功率放大器，以及用於最後一英里應用的大規模 MIMO 和毫米波產品。

We see 5G as both the content and share gain opportunity.

我們將 5G 視為內容和份額獲取機會。

Lastly, in Secure Identification Solutions, or SIS, third quarter revenue was $133 million, down 4% year-on-year due to lower demand for bank card products.

最後，在安全識別解決方案（SIS）中，由於對銀行卡產品的需求下降，第三季度收入為 1.33 億美元，同比下降 4%。

Turning to our distribution channel performance.

轉向我們的分銷渠道表現。

We continued to manage closely the total months of inventory in the distribution channel at 2.4 months.

我們繼續密切管理分銷渠道的總庫存月數為 2.4 個月。

We consistently target to maintain 2.5 months of supply plus or minus a 0.5 month in the channel.

我們一貫的目標是在渠道中維持 2.5 個月的供應加減 0.5 個月。

Distribution as a percent of total revenue continues to average about 55%, which is split between our mass market channel customers and our fulfillment channel for strategic customers.

分銷佔總收入的百分比繼續平均保持在 55% 左右，這分為我們的大眾市場渠道客戶和我們的戰略客戶履行渠道。

Given the uncertain environment, we are paying very close attention to the trends in the channel, staying close to our distribution partners.

鑑於不確定的環境，我們非常關注渠道的趨勢，與我們的分銷合作夥伴保持密切聯繫。

Before I pass the call to Peter, I'd like to announce our decision to shift how we report our revenue.

在我將電話轉給彼得之前，我想宣布我們決定改變我們報告收入的方式。

Beginning January 1, 2019, we will report our revenue in terms of 4 specific end markets: automotive, industrial and IoT, mobile and communications infrastructure and other.

從 2019 年 1 月 1 日開始，我們將根據 4 個特定終端市場報告我們的收入：汽車、工業和物聯網、移動和通信基礎設施等。

After multiple discussions with investors and sell-side analysts, we believe there are greater insights to be gained by making the shift to end markets.

經過與投資者和賣方分析師的多次討論，我們相信通過轉向終端市場可以獲得更多見解。

We recommend that all investors review the Analyst Day deck on our website, as it provides the market size and growth potential of the addressable end markets.

我們建議所有投資者查看我們網站上的分析師日甲板，因為它提供了可尋址終端市場的市場規模和增長潛力。

What we see is our unique opportunities to drive revenue in each end market.

我們看到的是我們在每個終端市場增加收入的獨特機會。

We will post a historical reconciliation of the new end-market focus to the existing operating segment structure.

我們將發布新的終端市場重點與現有運營部門結構的歷史調整。

And I'd like to pass the call over to Peter for a review of our financial performance.

我想把電話轉給彼得，讓他審查我們的財務業績。

Thank you, Rick, and good morning to everyone on today's call.

謝謝你，瑞克，今天電話會議上的每個人早上好。

As Rick has already covered the drivers of the revenue during the quarter, I'll move to the financial highlights.

由於 Rick 已經介紹了本季度收入的驅動因素，我將轉向財務亮點。

In summary, overall revenue performance was better than our midpoint guidance, although we did experience some softness in demand primarily from our partners in Greater China and, to a lesser extent, our Tier 1 automotive customers, who didn't pull material at the rate originally anticipated.

總而言之，整體收入表現好於我們的中點指引，儘管我們確實經歷了一些需求疲軟，主要來自我們在大中華區的合作夥伴，在較小程度上，我們的一級汽車客戶並沒有以這種速度拉動材料原本預計的。

Our non-GAAP operating profit was 30%, and cash flow continues to be strong.

我們的非公認會計準則營業利潤為 30%，現金流繼續強勁。

Our balance sheet continues to be in excellent condition, with a leverage ratio of 1.4x, which is below our long-term target.

我們的資產負債表繼續保持良好狀態，槓桿率為 1.4 倍，低於我們的長期目標。

Focusing on the details of Q3.

關注第三季度的細節。

Total revenue was $2.45 billion, up 2% year-on-year.

總收入為 24.5 億美元，同比增長 2%。

We generated $1.29 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 53 basis points, down 70 basis points year-on-year due to a slightly weaker product mix.

我們產生了 12.9 億美元的非美國通用會計準則毛利潤，報告非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 53 個基點，由於產品組合略微疲軟，同比下降 70 個基點。

Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $563 million, up $14 million year-on-year and slightly above the growth in our revenue.

非美國通用會計準則運營費用總額為 5.63 億美元，同比增長 1400 萬美元，略高於我們的收入增長。

But this was a reduction of $28 million from the second quarter and about 2/3 of this reduction was from lower bonus accruals and 1/3 was from general OpEx management.

但這比第二季度減少了 2800 萬美元，其中約 2/3 來自較低的獎金應計，1/3 來自一般運營支出管理。

The lower bonus accrual rate will continue to benefit us in the fourth quarter before returning to a more normal rate in 2019.

較低的獎金累積率將在第四季度繼續使我們受益，然後在 2019 年恢復到更正常的比率。

From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $733 million, and non-GAAP operating margin was 30%, down 80 basis points year-on-year, reflecting the previously mentioned items.

從總營業利潤來看，非美國通用會計準則營業利潤為7.33億美元，非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為30%，同比下降80個基點，反映了前述項目。

Interest expense was $34 million, noncontrolling interest was $13 million and cash taxes for ongoing operations were $33 million.

利息支出為 3400 萬美元，非控股權益為 1300 萬美元，持續經營的現金稅為 3300 萬美元。

Stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings, was $83 million.

不包括在我們的非公認會計原則收益中的基於股票的薪酬為 8300 萬美元。

Now I'd like to turn to the changes in our cash and debt.

現在我想談談我們的現金和債務的變化。

Our total debt at the end of Q3 was $6.36 billion, an increase of $1 billion due to the bridge loan facility we entered into during the quarter.

我們在第三季度末的總債務為 63.6 億美元，由於我們在本季度簽訂的過橋貸款安排而增加了 10 億美元。

Cash was $1.94 billion, and net debt was $4.41 billion.

現金為 19.4 億美元，淨債務為 44.1 億美元。

We exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of approximately $3.18 billion.

本季度末，我們過去 12 個月調整後的 EBITDA 約為 31.8 億美元。

Our ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of Q3 was 1.4x, and our non-GAAP interest coverage was nearly 22x.

截至第三季度末，我們的淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.4 倍，我們的非 GAAP 利息覆蓋率接近 22 倍。

During the quarter, we returned $4.6 billion to our shareholders and bought 49 million shares as part of our share repurchase program.

在本季度，我們向股東返還了 46 億美元，併購買了 4900 萬股股票，作為我們股票回購計劃的一部分。

We also announced the cash dividend, and an initial cash payment of $0.25 per share was paid on October 5. Our balance sheet includes an accrual of $346 million for the payments of a deemed dividend tax on the buybacks we made.

我們還宣布了現金股息，並於 10 月 5 日支付了每股 0.25 美元的初始現金支付。我們的資產負債表包括應計 3.46 億美元，用於支付我們回購的視為股息稅。

As a reminder, this payment does not go through the P&L and is likely to be paid in cash to the Dutch tax authorities in the fourth quarter.

提醒一下，這筆款項不通過損益表，很可能在第四季度以現金支付給荷蘭稅務機關。

Turning to our working capital metrics.

轉向我們的營運資金指標。

Days of inventory was 100 days, a reduction of 11 days sequentially.

庫存天數為100天，環比減少11天。

Days receivable was 32 days, an increase of 1 day sequentially.

應收天數32天，比上一期增加1天。

And days payable was 74, a decline of 16 days versus the prior quarter.

應付天數為 74 天，比上一季度減少 16 天。

Taken together, our cash conversion cycle was 58 days, an increase of 6 days versus the prior quarter.

綜合來看，我們的現金周轉週期為 58 天，比上一季度增加了 6 天。

Cash flow from operations was $2.62 billion, as we received a $2 billion termination fee in the quarter.

運營現金流為 26.2 億美元，因為我們在本季度收到了 20 億美元的終止費。

Our net CapEx was $155 million, resulting in a free cash flow of $2.46 billion.

我們的淨資本支出為 1.55 億美元，產生了 24.6 億美元的自由現金流。

Turning now to our expectations for the fourth quarter.

現在轉向我們對第四季度的預期。

We currently anticipate total revenue will be in a range of about down 5% to up 1% sequentially; at the midpoint of our range, about down 2% or $2.39 billion.

我們目前預計總收入將在環比下降約 5% 至上升 1% 的範圍內；在我們範圍的中點，下跌約 2% 或 23.9 億美元。

We anticipate the following trends in the business: auto is expected to be down mid-single digits sequentially; Secure Connected Devices is expected to be up low single digits sequentially; Secure Interface & Infrastructure is expected to be down mid-single sequentially; Secure Identification Solutions is expected to be down low single digits; and we anticipate revenue from corporate and other to be approximately $90 million.

我們預計該業務將呈現以下趨勢：汽車預計將環比下降中個位數；安全連接設備預計將連續增長個位數；安全接口和基礎設施預計將連續下降中單；安全識別解決方案預計將下降個位數；我們預計來自企業和其他方面的收入約為 9000 萬美元。

We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 53%, plus or minus 70 basis points.

我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率約為 53%，上下浮動 70 個基點。

Operating expenses are expected to be about $551 million plus or minus about $10 million.

運營費用預計約為 5.51 億美元，上下浮動約 1000 萬美元。

And taken together, we see non-GAAP operating margin to be about 30% plus or minus 100 basis points.

綜合來看，我們認為非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率約為 30% 上下 100 個基點。

We anticipate cash tax to be about $30 million plus or minus $1 million and estimate interest expense to be about $57 million, as we are considering refinancing our bridge loan and extending our debt maturities if conditions allow it.

我們預計現金稅約為 3000 萬美元正負 100 萬美元，估計利息費用約為 5700 萬美元，因為我們正在考慮為過渡貸款再融資並在條件允許的情況下延長債務期限。

Noncontrolling interest will be about $13 million plus or minus $1 million.

非控股權益約為 1300 萬美元，正負 100 萬美元。

I'd like to provide an update on our share repurchase program.

我想提供有關我們股票回購計劃的最新信息。

As previously mentioned, by the end of Q3, we bought back 49 million shares at a cost of $4.6 billion.

如前所述，截至第三季度末，我們以 46 億美元的成本回購了 4900 萬股股票。

Since September 30, we repurchased an additional 5 million shares and have completed the previously announced $5 billion buyback.

自 9 月 30 日起，我們又回購了 500 萬股股票，並完成了此前宣布的 50 億美元回購。

Additionally, the NXP Board of Directors has approved the company to utilize the remainder of the buyback authorized by shareholders at our general meeting in June.

此外，恩智浦董事會已批准公司在 6 月的股東大會上使用股東授權的剩餘回購股份。

So we now have the authorization to buy back an additional 15 million shares.

因此，我們現在有權回購額外的 1500 萬股股票。

As of September 30, our share count was 296 million, and we would suggest that for modeling purposes, you use an average share count for the fourth quarter of 295 million shares.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的股票數量為 2.96 億股，我們建議出於建模目的，您使用第四季度 2.95 億股的平均股票數量。

Finally, I have several housekeeping issues I'd like to address in follow-up to the Analyst Day.

最後，我想在分析師日的後續行動中解決幾個內務管理問題。

Although markets continue to be difficult to predict and, as Rick described, are somewhat murky, we firmly believe we can outgrow the market by 1.5x in the coming 3 years and remain comfortable with our 3-year compound annual growth rate of 5% to 7% revenue growth.

儘管市場仍然難以預測，並且正如 Rick 所描述的那樣，有些模糊，但我們堅信我們可以在未來 3 年內以 1.5 倍的速度增長市場，並且對我們 5% 的 3 年復合年增長率保持滿意7%的收入增長。

Secondly, we'll return all excess cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends and expect to run our leverage level of 2x.

其次，我們將通過回購和分紅將所有多餘的現金返還給股東，並期望我們的槓桿水平達到 2 倍。

Disappointingly, it now looks like the Dutch government will not repeal the deemed dividend tax on buybacks, so we will continue to consider alternatives to minimize these payments.

令人失望的是，現在荷蘭政府似乎不會廢除對回購徵收的股息稅，因此我們將繼續考慮替代方案以盡量減少這些支付。

Thirdly, clearly, our gross margins are not where we want them to be, but we plan to be at 55% exiting the fourth quarter of 2019, as I described in the Analyst Day.

第三，很明顯，我們的毛利率不是我們想要的，但我們計劃在 2019 年第四季度達到 55%，正如我在分析師日所描述的那樣。

Fourth, I'd like to update you with an improved view of the cash taxes we gave you at the Analyst Day.

第四，我想向您介紹我們在分析師日為您提供的現金稅的改進視圖。

We currently believe the effective rate on a cash basis will be 5%, 7% and 11%, respectively, for 2019, '20 and '21.

我們目前認為，2019 年、20 年和 21 年的現金有效利率將分別為 5%、7% 和 11%。

Fifth, and finally, as we've mentioned previously, we also have to pay incidental cash taxes related to the sale of standard products and the Qualcomm breakup fee, both of which occurred in prior periods and have been recorded in the provisions for income tax in the period they occurred.

第五，也是最後，正如我們之前提到的，我們還必須支付與標準產品銷售和高通分手費相關的附帶現金稅，這兩者都發生在前期，並已計入所得稅準備金。在它們發生的時期。

At this point in time, our revised estimate for these incidental cash payments will be $80 million in -- 8-0, in 2019 and $40 million, 4-0, in 2020.

在這個時間點，我們對這些附帶現金支付的修訂估計將在 2019 年以 8-0 為 8000 萬美元，在 2020 年以 4-0 為 4000 萬美元。

So with that, I'd like to turn it back to the operator for your questions.

因此，我想將其轉回給運營商以解決您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

Congratulations on the solid results, given the macro backdrop.

鑑於宏觀背景，祝賀取得了可靠的結果。

Rick, my first question is just on SI&I.

Rick，我的第一個問題是關於 SI&I。

It was nice to see the pickup in the quarter, and as you mentioned in your prepared comments, you kind of have attributed it to a single U.S. carrier early deployment of 5G.

很高興看到本季度的回升，正如您在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，您將其歸因於一家美國運營商早期部署 5G。

I'm wondering if you could just give us a little bit more detail on what you think the 5G opportunity is on SIS -- I'm sorry, SI&I.

我想知道您能否就您認為 SIS 上的 5G 機會向我們提供更多細節——對不起，SI&I。

You talked about it being both a content and a share story.

你談到它既是一個內容，也是一個分享故事。

Can you try to put some numbers around that for us?

你能試著給我們一些數字嗎？

Yes, it's a little premature to talk about the actual size of it since it's early on in the deployment stage.

是的，現在談論它的實際大小還為時過早，因為它處於部署階段的早期。

But I think we've talked a little bit at the Analyst Day, John, about the massive MIMO opportunity for kind of the last mile.

但我想我們在分析師日上談了一點，約翰，關於最後一英里的大規模 MIMO 機會。

And clearly, what we saw in Q3 was some of the trial deployments taking place in that area and an opportunity for us, really, to be able to take what we believe to be a pretty unique technology to that.

很明顯，我們在第三季度看到的是在該地區進行的一些試驗部署，這對我們來說是一個機會，真的，能夠採用我們認為非常獨特的技術。

And we think there's clearly some opportunities.

我們認為顯然有一些機會。

As you know, our expectations for SI&I over the next 3 years are pretty shallow, and that's because it's a combination of things.

如您所知，我們對未來 3 年的 SI&I 的期望非常淺，這是因為它是多種因素的結合。

Actually, in the current quarter, our DN product area, actually, showed some upside as well.

實際上，在本季度，我們的 DN 產品領域實際上也顯示出一些上升空間。

But clearly, with the legacy roll off of the network processors on the PowerPC side, we don't plan on that on a sustainable basis.

但很明顯，隨著 PowerPC 端網絡處理器的遺留問題，我們不會在可持續的基礎上對此進行計劃。

I think we could see some upside in SI&I through a combination of our enterprise products that will sell per attach, along with our MCU portfolio, but on the 5G itself, I think it's an opportunity that we see that will be fairly -- we'll not get ahead of ourselves relative to the opportunity associated with that.

我認為我們可以通過將我們的企業產品與我們的 MCU 產品組合相結合來看到 SI&I 的一些上升空間，但在 5G 本身上，我認為這是一個我們認為公平的機會——我們相對於與此相關的機會，我們不會超越自己。

I think we're trying to be sure that we get the technology engagements and we win the design wins, and then when 5G is actually deployed significantly, we'll be able take advantage of it.

我認為我們正在努力確保我們獲得技術合作並贏得設計勝利，然後當 5G 實際得到大量部署時，我們將能夠利用它。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then for my follow-up, guys, you gave us good color by your product segments and expectations in the December quarter.

然後對於我的後續行動，伙計們，你們在 12 月季度的產品細分和期望給了我們很好的色彩。

I might have missed this, but could you talk about what your expectation for your distribution channel in Q4 is?

我可能錯過了這一點，但您能否談談您對第四季度分銷渠道的期望是什麼？

Do you expect sell-in to be below sell-through?

您是否期望賣出低於賣出？

How do we see -- or how do you guys see inventories progressing through the December quarter?

我們如何看待——或者你們如何看待 12 月季度的庫存進展？

Well, John, we think our distribution inventory is in pretty good shape at 2.4 months.

好吧，約翰，我們認為我們的分銷庫存狀況良好，為 2.4 個月。

We actively managed that, specifically in this last quarter as the environment changed as we went through the quarter.

我們積極地管理了這一點，特別是在最後一個季度，因為我們經歷了這個季度，環境發生了變化。

We were actively engaged being sure that we had the right level of distribution inventory, and we think we'll do the same thing into Q4.

我們積極參與以確保我們擁有合適的分銷庫存水平，我們認為我們將在第四季度做同樣的事情。

I think it's still a very cloudy picture.

我認為這仍然是一個非常多雲的畫面。

The economy continues to be good, production rates continue to be okay in most areas, but the concern over tariffs and the trade war clearly have our customers where they're being cautious in their inventory purchase and their backlog commitments to be sure that they don't get overextended.

經濟繼續向好，大多數地區的生產率繼續保持良好，但對關稅和貿易戰的擔憂顯然讓我們的客戶在庫存採購和積壓承諾方面保持謹慎，以確保他們不這樣做不要過度擴張。

And I think we're going to go through that for some period of time, and it will require us to be very well aligned with our distribution partners to be sure we have the right level of inventory in place to take advantage of the market opportunities, but be sure we don't have too much inventory in place.

而且我認為我們將經歷一段時間，這將需要我們與我們的分銷合作夥伴保持良好的一致，以確保我們擁有適當的庫存水平以利用市場機會，但請確保我們沒有太多庫存。

And our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

I had, first, a question on gross margin.

首先，我有一個關於毛利率的問題。

It came in just maybe a hair light in the quarter, the guide looks a little light.

它可能只是在該季度發出的光，指南看起來有點光。

I know you said a weaker product mix, but in the quarter, a secure interface is very strong.

我知道您說產品組合較弱，但在本季度，安全界面非常強大。

I would have thought that would have had higher margins, which might have helped.

我原以為那會有更高的利潤率，這可能會有所幫助。

So if you could you give us any maybe further view on other drivers of gross margins beyond product mix, utilization, pricing, anything else that may be impacting that.

因此，如果您能給我們進一步了解產品組合、利用率、定價以及其他可能影響毛利率的其他因素。

And then around the -- as you kind of work toward the 55% exiting 2019, what should that trajectory look like given where we're starting from today?

然後圍繞 - 當您朝著 2019 年退出的 55% 努力時，考慮到我們從今天開始的位置，該軌跡應該是什麼樣子？

Yes, we were 30 basis points light, which is $7 million on a $1.3 billion [of cost].

是的，我們是 30 個基點，即 13 億美元 [成本] 中的 700 萬美元。

Yes, just a hair.

是的，只是一根頭髮。

Yes, I mean to be honest, I don't have that much control over it.

是的，我的意思是說實話，我對它沒有太多的控制權。

There's lots of moving things that go on, certainly, on volume, your yields, your pluses and minuses.

當然，在數量、你的產量、你的優點和缺點方面，有很多令人感動的事情。

You have all sorts of crazy mix kind of things going on.

你有各種瘋狂的混合類型的事情發生。

But there was no one big specific thing.

但是沒有一件特別大的事情。

We just had lots of pluses and minuses there.

我們在那裡有很多優點和缺點。

I guess, I asked you more about Q4, about the guide?

我想，我問你更多關於第四季度的問題，關於指南？

Again, we said we'd be at 55% pending next year.

同樣，我們說明年我們將有 55% 的待定。

As we go from Q3 into Q4, yes, the mix looks like it could be a bit better, but volume is down a bit.

當我們從第三季度進入第四季度時，是的，混合看起來可能會好一些，但成交量有所下降。

And there's all sorts of things that go on, Stacy.

還有各種各樣的事情，斯泰西。

So I can't really give you a simple bridge from Q3 to Q4.

所以我真的不能給你一個從第三季度到第四季度的簡單橋樑。

And in terms of kind of how we progress to 55% next year, it won't be kind of a linear track.

就我們明年如何發展到 55% 而言，這不會是一種線性軌道。

And at this point, we're not guiding 2019 by quarter.

在這一點上，我們沒有按季度指導 2019 年。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

For my follow-up around OpEx, I know you said you'd reduce bonus payments in Q3 and that carries into Q4 and then, I guess, those come back with the new year.

對於我圍繞運營支出的後續行動，我知道您說過您將在第三季度減少獎金支付，這會延續到第四季度，然後，我猜，這些獎金會隨著新的一年回來。

I think you usually, typically, have raises and everything that happen in -- so how should we think about, I guess, OpEx seasonality into Q4 just maybe coming off a what would be a depressed Q4 base?

我認為您通常會加薪以及發生的所有事情-所以我們應該如何考慮，我猜，第四季度的運營支出季節性可能會從第四季度低迷的基數中走出來？

The way I think about it at a kind of simple level is, we were roughly $30 million lower from Q2 to Q3 and 2/3 of that $20 million was bonus and the other $10 million was real cuts we made, which we'd expect to maintain.

我從某種簡單的角度考慮的方式是，我們從第二季度到第三季度減少了大約 3000 萬美元，其中 2000 萬美元中有 2/3 是獎金，另外 1000 萬美元是我們實際削減的，這是我們預期的維持。

So as we go out of Q4, it's going to be increased by at least the $20 million for the bonus, assuming we perform next year and we can pay the bonus.

因此，當我們結束第四季度時，假設我們明年表現出色並且可以支付獎金，獎金將至少增加 2000 萬美元。

But -- and then as our revenue grows, then you would see our OpEx increase in line with revenue.

但是——然後隨著我們收入的增長，你會看到我們的運營支出隨著收入的增加而增加。

But the big nut, so to speak, is that $20 million.

但可以說，最重要的是 2000 萬美元。

Got it.

知道了。

You think you kind of like drift into the model like next year as you grow into it?

你覺得你有點喜歡像明年一樣進入這個模型，因為你長大了？

Sorry, say it again?

對不起，再說一遍？

I'm sorry, you have an OpEx model that you're running heavy on right now.

很抱歉，您有一個運營支出模型，您現在正在使用它。

You think you kind of drift into the model next year as you grow?

你認為隨著你的成長，你會在明年進入模特界嗎？

Yes, I'll stay on the -- we'll, what we say, 16% on R&D and...

是的，我會繼續——我們會說，16% 用於研發和...

8% SG&A.

8% SG&A。

8% in SG&A.

SG&A 8%。

That will be the -- ultimately, the worst case, yes.

那將是——最終，最壞的情況，是的。

Yes, I think that's the right way to think about it, Stacy.

是的，我認為這是正確的思考方式，斯泰西。

As we see the revenue strengthening, get through this cloudy period, we'll get back to the levels that we've talked about associated with OpEx.

當我們看到收入增加時，度過這段陰雲密布的時期，我們將回到我們討論過的與運營支出相關的水平。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Vivek Arya。

I think, Rick, you mentioned that you might have a new reporting structure.

我想，里克，你提到你可能有一個新的報告結構。

I agree.

我同意。

I think that will be a very useful thing to get a sense of the trend.

我認為這對於了解趨勢非常有用。

Is it possible to perhaps get a preview and see how your Q3 sales and then, importantly, Q4 outlook kind of roughly aligns with the new structure?

是否有可能獲得預覽並查看您的第三季度銷售情況，然後，重要的是，第四季度前景與新結構大致一致？

We'll come back to that at the start of the year and give you the details.

我們將在今年年初回到這個問題上，並為您提供詳細信息。

We can't change kind of in midstream.

我們不能在中游改變。

We want to do it in an orderly fashion and want to provide a bridge-to-bridge back at the time that we do that implementation.

我們希望以有序的方式進行，並希望在我們執行該實施時提供一個橋對橋的返回。

Okay.

好的。

Then for my follow-up, when I look, Rick, at the automotive business, I understand that Q4, you're seeing the deceleration, a lot of your peers are seeing the deceleration, so that's not unexpected.

然後對於我的後續行動，當我查看 Rick，汽車業務時，我了解到第四季度，你看到了減速，你的很多同行都看到了減速，所以這並不意外。

But when I look at Q3, growth rates have come down to kind of the mid-single digit, and I think you mentioned the slower fall of some of your MCU business.

但是當我查看第三季度時，增長率已經下降到中個位數，我認為您提到了您的一些 MCU 業務的緩慢下降。

This deceleration, is this more units?

這個減速，是不是多了個單位？

Is this more content?

這是更多內容嗎？

Because when I look at some of your peers in Q3, they still had pretty decent growth in automotive.

因為當我查看第三季度的一些同行時，他們在汽車領域的增長仍然相當可觀。

So how are you feeling about the automotive business overall?

那麼，您對汽車行業的整體感覺如何？

Yes, I think the automotive business is performing quite well.

是的，我認為汽車業務的表現相當不錯。

Actually, if you look at it, we had strong growth rate in the analog side as well as in RADAR solutions.

實際上，如果你看一下，我們在模擬方面以及雷達解決方案方面都有強勁的增長速度。

What happened was we had our OEM customers that reduced their pulls based on what they were seeing, again, create back kind of this fear, uncertainty and doubt about the economic environment.

發生的情況是，我們的 OEM 客戶根據他們所看到的情況減少了他們的拉動，再次製造了對經濟環境的這種恐懼、不確定性和懷疑。

We think that that's relatively short-lived.

我們認為這是相對短暫的。

There was no issue on content whatsoever.

內容上沒有任何問題。

It was just on actual volume and pulls from our major customers as they reduced their build plans as they went through the -- towards the end of the quarter.

這只是實際數量，並且來自我們的主要客戶，因為他們在本季度末減少了他們的構建計劃。

And remember that inventory is a vendor-managed inventory, so we only get it as they actually goes into production.

請記住，庫存是供應商管理的庫存，因此我們僅在它們實際投入生產時才獲得它。

So that kind of giving the confirmation of that kind of came in at the end of the quarter.

因此，這種對這種情況的確認是在本季度末出現的。

And to that, it's Jeff, I would just add, as we've noted at the Analyst Day, content is definitely the tailwind to the automotive business over the next several years.

對此，傑夫，我想補充一點，正如我們在分析師日所指出的那樣，內容絕對是未來幾年汽車業務的順風車。

So we don't see any issues to the content growth story whatsoever.

因此，我們認為內容增長故事沒有任何問題。

Clearly, we have to ebb and flow with global SAR, but that was never the key driver to our overall automotive business.

顯然，我們必須在全球 SAR 中起起落落，但這從來都不是我們整個汽車業務的關鍵驅動力。

And when you talk about it versus our peers, our mix is quite unique in automotive, being the largest semiconductor supplier into the automotive market.

當您與我們的同行相比時，我們的組合在汽車領域非常獨特，是汽車市場最大的半導體供應商。

The macro space clearly gets a little more linked in the near term to actual car production, but the ramp-up associated with new applications that we see and the opportunity to really provide safer driving is going to give us a real tailwind to help drive the growth that we see over the next few years.

宏觀空間在短期內顯然與實際汽車生產有更多的聯繫，但與我們看到的新應用相關的增長以及真正提供更安全駕駛的機會將為我們提供真正的順風來幫助推動我們在未來幾年看到的增長。

Our next question comes from William Stein with SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 William Stein。

First, a couple more on automotive.

首先，關於汽車的更多信息。

Rick, you talked about explosive growth in design wins in the quarter.

里克，你談到了本季度設計勝利的爆炸性增長。

I'm wondering if you can comment as to the mix of technologies.

我想知道您是否可以評論技術的組合。

I think at the Analyst Day and in the past, you've talked about a new opportunity in BMS.

我認為在分析師日和過去，您都談到了 BMS 的新機會。

Obviously, RADAR has been something that you've been talking about for a while.

顯然，RADAR 一直是您談論的話題。

There is also V2X.

還有V2X。

Any, not to say specific design wins, but technologies that you could highlight for us?

任何，不是說特定的設計獲勝，而是您可以為我們強調的技術？

And then I have a follow-up.

然後我有一個跟進。

Yes, I think you said it well.

是的，我認為你說得很好。

It's RADAR, it's battery management systems, and it's also our new S32 platform.

它是雷達，是電池管理系統，也是我們新的 S32 平台。

Now the S32 platform is one that we're behind on giving out to our customers, so it didn't contribute as many of the design wins in the most recent quarter.

現在，S32 平台是我們在向客戶提供方面落後的平台，因此它在最近一個季度的設計勝利中沒有貢獻那麼多。

But in RADAR and battery management systems, we continued to see explosive growth with, really, a unique opportunity to lead what were designed in at all of the major Tier 1s on RADAR and being able to drive that at a very rapid growth rate as we see the implementation to actually make driving safer here over the next couple of years.

但在雷達和電池管理系統方面，我們繼續看到爆炸式增長，這確實是一個獨特的機會，可以引領雷達上所有主要一級的設計，並能夠以非常快速的增長速度推動這一點，因為我們看看在接下來的幾年裡讓駕駛更安全的實施。

Great.

偉大的。

And the follow-up relates to margins, again.

後續行動再次與利潤有關。

I'm wondering if the company has done any sort of sensitivity analysis as to, let's say, you don't meet the revenue growth goals in this year.

我想知道公司是否做過任何類型的敏感性分析，比如說，你沒有達到今年的收入增長目標。

Understanding that's a 3-year view, but if 2019 winds up being flat or, let's say, even down 5%, would you still be able to get into the range of your targets?

了解這是一個 3 年的觀點，但如果 2019 年最終持平，或者甚至下降 5%，您是否仍然能夠進入您的目標範圍？

And sort of any comment as to what the biggest drivers would be besides just the leverage that you'd see -- operating leverage from revenue growth and the [price effects]?

除了你所看到的槓桿——來自收入增長和[價格效應]的運營槓桿之外，還有什麼關於最大驅動因素的評論？

Good question, Will.

好問題，威爾。

About 35% of our COGS is fixed, so you can do the math on volume.

我們大約 35% 的 COGS 是固定的，因此您可以根據數量進行計算。

I mean, it's not a science, but it gives you a good idea.

我的意思是，這不是一門科學，但它給了你一個好主意。

I think if the revenue was flat, yes, we'd be able to get into our gross margin range.

我認為如果收入持平，是的，我們將能夠進入我們的毛利率範圍。

We went through some of the bridges at the Analyst Day, and I think, directionally, they're right.

我們在分析師日通過了一些橋樑，我認為，從方向上講，它們是正確的。

There's -- it's not so much about volume as making sure the manufacturing teams are doing all the things they need to do on cost reduction with our suppliers and yield improvements, making sure the marketing teams are doing the right things on pricing.

有——與其說是數量，不如說是確保製造團隊在與我們的供應商一起降低成本和提高產量方面做他們需要做的所有事情，確保營銷團隊在定價方面做正確的事情。

But for this to see a real issue on gross margin, it'd actually be just an unbelievable downturn next year with absolute significant drops in revenue because at 35% fixed cost, we have a lot more flexibility now than we had it in the past.

但要讓毛利率出現真正的問題，明年實際上只是令人難以置信的低迷，收入絕對顯著下降，因為固定成本為 35%，我們現在比過去擁有更大的靈活性.

One thing I should just go back and add on auto when the question was asked about the MCU volume, part of that was related to the WLTP and the testing that was going on in Europe.

當被問及有關 MCU 體積的問題時，我應該返回並添加 auto 的一件事，其中一部分與 WLTP 和歐洲正在進行的測試有關。

It slowed the implementation.

它減慢了實施速度。

So that clearly was a factor in our results in Q3 that I should have just been more specific about a few minutes ago.

因此，這顯然是我們在第三季度的結果中的一個因素，我應該在幾分鐘前更具體一些。

Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Matt Ramsay 和 Cowen。

I just wanted to step back in a bigger picture, and I think Stacy might have some questions earlier around OpEx, specifically around getting into the model next year.

我只是想從更大的圖景中退後一步，我認為 Stacy 早些時候可能對 OpEx 有一些疑問，特別是關於明年進入模型的問題。

But one of the questions I get most often from investors on a go-forward basis is -- maybe we can talk about the investments you made in the core franchises of the business during that 20-month -- 21-month period under the Qualcomm umbrella of the deal.

但是，在前進的基礎上，我最常從投資者那裡得到的一個問題是——也許我們可以談談你在高通公司下的 20 個月——21 個月期間對業務核心特許經營權的投資交易的保護傘。

And it occurs to me that your OpEx has, actually, been managed quite well, but R&D spending is actually up on an absolute basis and as a percentage of revenue.

在我看來，您的運營支出實際上管理得很好，但研發支出實際上是在絕對基礎上增加的，佔收入的百分比。

And I guess, maybe you guys could talk a little bit about where you've focused investments during that period of time, particularly in the auto business?

我想，也許你們可以談談你們在那段時間裡把投資的重點放在哪裡，特別是在汽車行業？

And I guess, the pushback is, did you under-invest?

我想，阻力是，你投資不足嗎？

And is that going to come back on a go-forward basis in revenue?

這是否會在收入的基礎上回歸？

And it occurs to me that I think that you didn't.

我突然想到我認為你沒有。

So maybe you could just talk about that at a high level.

所以也許你可以在高層次上談論這個。

Yes.

是的。

I think, if anything, we were kind of -- we didn't take complete control of the investments we were making in R&D, but I think we were a little more gentle in cutting back to fit within a budget as we went through that 21-month period of time and now we get the benefit of it.

我認為，如果有的話，我們有點——我們沒有完全控制我們在研發方面的投資，但我認為我們在削減預算以適應預算時會更加溫和一些。 21個月的時間，現在我們得到了它的好處。

The investment we made to continue to solidify our position in RADAR, the ability to take what was some early opportunities in battery management and really invest to see that through to an opportunity are key areas that we think are key for us.

我們為繼續鞏固我們在 RADAR 中的地位而進行的投資，能夠抓住電池管理領域的一些早期機會並真正投資以看到機會是我們認為對我們至關重要的關鍵領域。

And in addition, our S32 micro platform sets us up very well in a unique position that no other competitor has the ability to drive.

此外，我們的 S32 微型平台使我們處於一個其他競爭對手無法驅動的獨特位置。

The ability to drive 16 nanometer finFET solutions while our competitors are now, at the same time, beginning to introduce 28-nanometer positions us in a very unique position quite well and will help drive our growth.

驅動 16 納米 finFET 解決方案的能力，而我們的競爭對手現在同時開始引入 28 納米，這使我們處於一個非常獨特的位置，並將有助於推動我們的增長。

In R&D investments, specifically in automotive, we've been increasing that.

在研發投資方面，特別是在汽車領域，我們一直在增加投資。

It's kind of 15% compounded growth rate based on where we were in the industrial and IoT space, investing in the crossover IoT and the ability to continue to solidify our position in the apps processor in the i.MX family and drive some unique platforms that will be able to actually address machine learning in the implementation of artificial intelligence is key areas that we've invested in as well.

這是 15% 的複合增長率，這取決於我們在工業和物聯網領域的位置、對跨界物聯網的投資以及繼續鞏固我們在 i.MX 系列應用處理器中的地位並推動一些獨特平台的能力將能夠在人工智能的實施中實際解決機器學習問題，這也是我們投資的關鍵領域。

In addition to that, we implemented the single-chip secure element in NFC radio.

除此之外，我們還在 NFC 無線電中實現了單芯片安全元件。

So I think there's no lack of investments that we've done.

所以我認為我們所做的投資並不缺乏。

We've made the right kind of investments.

我們進行了正確的投資。

In addition to what I talk about in automotive, we also have been investing in ethernet that will position us quite well to continue to strengthen our in-vehicle networking platforms and the leadership position that we've had in the car space and the domain controller opportunity that we see in auto.

除了我談到的汽車領域外，我們還一直在投資以太網，這將使我們能夠繼續加強我們的車載網絡平台以及我們在汽車領域和域控制器方面的領導地位我們在汽車中看到的機會。

So the opportunities have been there.

所以機會就在那裡。

We've been investing.

我們一直在投資。

There is no lack of investment that's been done during that 21-month period of time.

在這 21 個月的時間裡，不乏投資。

In fact, if anything, we've probably invested more than we would have if we were on a go-along basis to try to be sure that everything was set up to move forward.

事實上，如果有的話，我們可能已經投入了更多的資金，如果我們一直在努力確保一切都準備好向前推進的話。

So I don't think -- you can rest assured to tell investors there wasn't a lack of investment that puts anything in question going forward, but providing that capability of bringing security to the edge and what we see the opportunity to really create and support the disruption of the cloud from IoT and in ultra-wideband are the areas that really position us uniquely going forward and the reason why we feel very comfortable outgrowing the market by at least 50% and still feel comfortable with the kind of 6% to 8% compounded growth rate going forward.

所以我不認為——你可以放心地告訴投資者，並不缺乏投資會導致任何問題的發展，而是提供將安全帶到邊緣的能力以及我們認為真正創造的機會並支持物聯網和超寬帶對雲的破壞是真正使我們處於獨特地位的領域，也是我們感到非常自在的原因，超過了市場至少 50%，並且仍然對 6% 感到自在未來複合增長率為8%。

No, Rick, that's consistent with my view.

不，瑞克，這與我的觀點一致。

I'm just relaying some pushback that I've gotten.

我只是在轉述我收到的一些反對意見。

Just as a quick follow-up on SI&I given some fairly very good upside in Q3 and you've talked about it into Q4, how should we think about calibrating that expectation into what's probably a seasonally down Q1 just so we have the right sort of trajectory into Q1.

正如對 SI&I 的快速跟進給出了第三季度相當不錯的上漲空間並且您已經在第四季度談到了它，我們應該如何考慮將這種預期校準為可能是第一季度的季節性下降，這樣我們才能擁有正確的類型進入 Q1 的軌跡。

If there's anything you could add there, that'd be helpful.

如果您可以在其中添加任何內容，那將很有幫助。

Yes, we don't give guidance for Q1, but I do think that we may see some things that will be a little bit abnormal associated with 5G implementation.

是的，我們沒有為第一季度提供指導，但我確實認為我們可能會看到一些與 5G 實施相關的事情會有點不正常。

But it's really too early to say.

但現在說還為時過早。

And we'll come back and talk about that more when we give you our Q1 guidance.

當我們為您提供第一季度指導時，我們會回來討論更多。

Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾。

Congrats, especially on the cost and the cash return.

恭喜，尤其是在成本和現金回報方面。

Wanted to focus on the SCD part of the business.

希望專注於業務的 SCD 部分。

Some of the concerns people have in broad-based markets aren't just limited to auto, but also kind of general purpose microcontrollers, inventory and broad-based analog, those sorts of things.

人們對基礎廣泛的市場的一些擔憂不僅限於汽車，還包括通用微控制器、庫存和基礎廣泛的模擬，諸如此類。

So wondered what you're seeing in that business, especially given that you're guiding it up sequentially in the fourth quarter?

所以想知道你在該業務中看到了什麼，特別是考慮到你在第四季度連續引導它？

The interesting thing about SCD is, it's a mix of products and so the mobile wallet, combined with the implementation of the mass market, general-purpose micros as well as our i.MX family.

SCD 的有趣之處在於，它是產品和移動錢包的組合，結合了大眾市場、通用 micros 以及我們的 i.MX 系列的實施。

Clearly, in China, we're seeing the FUD factor that we talked about where our customers are actually being somewhat slow in placing orders and being very diligent relative to their inventory levels.

顯然，在中國，我們看到了我們談到的 FUD 因素，我們的客戶實際上在下訂單時有些緩慢，並且相對於他們的庫存水平非常勤奮。

And that has an impact on the mass market micros.

這對大眾市場的微觀市場產生了影響。

And while we see slowing on a sequential basis in the growth rate, not a decline, but a slowing growth rate, still see the opportunity for growth year-over-year because of the position that we've had and the strong performance we had early on in the year.

雖然我們看到增長率連續放緩，不是下降，而是增長率放緩，但由於我們擁有的地位和我們擁有的強勁表現，仍然看到了同比增長的機會年初。

So I think for us, the opportunity is still there.

所以我認為對我們來說，機會仍然存在。

We still continue to be working with our distribution partners as the majority of that business -- clear majority of that business probably around 3/4 of it goes through the distribution channel.

我們仍然繼續與我們的分銷合作夥伴合作，因為該業務的大部分——顯然大部分業務可能有大約 3/4 是通過分銷渠道。

So it's really important that we work closely with our distribution partners to be sure that we get the technology out to customers where it can be implemented.

因此，我們與分銷合作夥伴密切合作以確保我們將技術提供給可以實施的客戶，這一點非常重要。

But as we see the opportunities in IoT and ability to really drive the utilization that the cloud supports in making IoT real, that business is really critical to be able to fulfill that opportunity.

但是，當我們看到物聯網中的機會以及真正推動雲支持使物聯網成為現實的利用的能力時，該業務對於能夠實現這一機會至關重要。

And so I think that, really, one of the tempering factors is, it's still those designs and the opportunities that we'll have even with people being a little more reluctant in placing orders in the near term as they're trying to figure out what's going on with the tariffs and trade war and, really, creating a significant amount of fear, uncertainty and doubt or FUD relative to the overall marketplace.

所以我認為，實際上，緩和因素之一是，即使人們在短期內不太願意下訂單，因為他們試圖弄清楚，仍然是那些設計和我們將擁有的機會關稅和貿易戰正在發生什麼，實際上，相對於整個市場，造成了大量的恐懼、不確定性和懷疑或 FUD。

Great.

偉大的。

And for my follow-up, I just want to go back to the auto side of things.

對於我的後續行動，我只想回到汽車方面。

Rick, you mentioned a couple of things, the FUD side for sure and then the WLTP side.

Rick，你提到了幾件事，肯定是 FUD 方面，然後是 WLTP 方面。

For that latter side of the equation, I realize that the former was the macro impact, it's difficult for you guys to project, but for the latter side, it seems like it's a transitional issue in Europe, might be a big one, but a transitional one nonetheless with that change in testing standards.

對於等式的後者，我意識到前者是宏觀影響，你們很難預測，但對於後者，這似乎是歐洲的一個過渡問題，可能是一個大問題，但然而，隨著測試標準的變化，這是過渡性的。

How do you view that kind of lull working its way through the system?

你如何看待這種通過系統運作的平靜？

And when do you think that headwind might abate for NXP?

您認為恩智浦的逆風何時會減弱？

Well, I think our customers are working closely to try to address that so that they'll get through that over a relatively short period of time.

好吧，我認為我們的客戶正在密切合作以嘗試解決這個問題，以便他們能夠在相對較短的時間內解決這個問題。

I don't think that's going to be a prolonged period.

我認為這不會是一個漫長的時期。

I think it will work through the supply chain here fairly quickly.

我認為它將很快通過這裡的供應鏈發揮作用。

And I think that it will continue to be a near-term factor as they go through their pulls, but we have the impression that they'll get back to kind of a normal ongoing basis here relatively soon and then it's going to be more dependent on actual car sales.

而且我認為這將繼續是他們進行拉動時的短期因素，但我們的印像是他們將在這里相對較快地恢復正常的持續基礎，然後它將更加依賴關於實際汽車銷售。

The interesting thing is, when people talk about the reduced sales of cars in China, the interesting thing is if you go back and look at over last 4, 5 years, July is always the lowest car sales month in China.

有趣的是，當人們談論中國汽車銷量下降時，有趣的是，如果你回過頭來看過去4、5年，7月一直是中國汽車銷量最低的月份。

And if you actually look at actual sales in August and September, while they were down from the previous year, they were actually increasing sequentially.

如果你真的看一下 8 月和 9 月的實際銷售額，雖然它們比上一年有所下降，但它們實際上是連續增長的。

And so I think part of it's going to depend on what happens with the Chinese government.

所以我認為部分原因將取決於中國政府會發生什麼。

When this happened a few years ago with the first time where there was decline in car sales, they actually changed the tax structure and car sales in China got back on track very quickly, and we'll see that take place.

幾年前發生這種情況時，汽車銷量第一次出現下滑，他們實際上改變了稅收結構，中國的汽車銷量很快就回到了正軌，我們會看到這種情況發生。

But the WLTP, specifically, we think it's only a 1 or 2 quarter issue.

但是 WLTP，具體來說，我們認為它只是一個 1 或 2 個季度的問題。

Our next question comes from Craig Hettenbach with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Craig Hettenbach。

Rick, 5G looks like a positive development.

Rick，5G 看起來是一個積極的發展。

You noted some of the North American market initial activity.

您注意到北美市場的一些初始活動。

As you look into 2019, can you just discuss kind of the visibility you have into additional 5G ramps and how you're thinking about the business?

展望 2019 年，您能否討論一下您對其他 5G 斜坡的可見性以及您對業務的看法？

Well, I think it's really going to depend on how that gets deployed.

嗯，我認為這真的取決於它是如何部署的。

I know early on, some of these last-mile implementations, they're doing those with FPGAs, which are extremely expensive.

我很早就知道，其中一些最後一英里的實現是使用非常昂貴的 FPGA 來實現的。

So I don't see those going to mass market associated with it.

所以我看不到那些進入大眾市場的人與之相關。

So I think they have to be able to get to a commercial solution that they can drive in a cost-effective manner the deployment associated with 5G, and it's not clear to me that that's taking place quite yet.

因此，我認為他們必須能夠找到一個商業解決方案，以經濟高效的方式推動與 5G 相關的部署，而我還不清楚這是否正在發生。

So I think it's an opportunity that clearly was a positive for us in Q3.

所以我認為這是一個在第三季度顯然對我們有利的機會。

We're being a little more cautious on the implementation in 2019 because we think they have to get to a cost-effective commercial implementation before we'll see the volumes actually begin to ramp on a significant basis.

我們對 2019 年的實施更加謹慎，因為我們認為他們必須先進行具有成本效益的商業實施，然後我們才能看到數量實際上開始顯著增加。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just as a follow-up regarding the overall environment, a couple of companies have talked about kind of a downtick in the month of September.

然後，作為對整體環境的跟進，幾家公司談到了 9 月份的下跌。

Can you just talk about kind of linearity in the quarter and how things progress and how kind of orders were up until October?

您能否談談本季度的線性度以及事情的進展情況以及截至 10 月的訂單情況？

So it depends on the business.

所以這取決於業務。

Each one of the businesses is separate.

每一項業務都是獨立的。

Clearly, the lion share of our automotive business is on vendor-managed inventories.

顯然，我們汽車業務的最大份額來自供應商管理的庫存。

So those pulls kind of begin to slow.

所以那些拉動開始放緩。

But August was kind of a vacation month as well, so it was down a little bit as well as we went through the vacation months in Europe associated with August.

但 8 月也是一個假期月份，所以隨著我們在歐洲度過與 8 月相關的假期月份，它也有所下降。

In September, I don't think we saw anything that continued to go down at all.

在 9 月，我認為我們根本沒有看到任何繼續下降的情況。

Again, I think it's really important to point out that while we see the growth slowing on a sequential basis, we still see positive growth year-over-year.

同樣，我認為非常重要的是要指出，雖然我們看到增長環比放緩，但我們仍然看到同比增長正。

And we don't see anything continuing to weaken or weaken more significantly from where we were in September.

而且我們沒有看到任何東西從 9 月份的情況繼續減弱或減弱。

The environment continues to be kind of status quo, although quite cloudy and still not really able to confirm getting back on the steady growth rate of the first half of the year.

環境繼續保持現狀，儘管相當多雲，仍然無法真正確認恢復到今年上半年的穩定增長速度。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Just back on the multi-market MCU, which is up high single digits.

回到多市場的 MCU 上，它的漲幅高達個位數。

So this is really good performance, and it bucked the trend of the overall general-purpose MCU segment, which was -- I think was only up about 1% to 2% in Q3 kind of looking at the SIA data.

所以這是非常好的性能，它逆勢而上整個通用 MCU 細分市場的趨勢——我認為從 SIA 數據來看，第三季度僅增長了 1% 到 2%。

This is even with some of the weaker demand trends in China.

即使在中國的一些需求趨勢疲軟的情況下也是如此。

So Rick, if you could just help us understand what are the geographies or applications that are helping to drive the above-market demand for your general-purpose MCU business?

那麼 Rick，您能否幫助我們了解哪些地區或應用有助於推動您的通用 MCU 業務的上述市場需求？

And within the SIA data, it looks like 32-bit also kind of outperformed year-over-year.

在 SIA 數據中，看起來 32 位的表現也比去年同期好一些。

Obviously, that's a strong leadership position for you guys, but I love to get your thoughts.

顯然，這對你們來說是一個強有力的領導職位，但我很想听聽你們的想法。

Yes.

是的。

So, Harlan, I think one of the key things that was a benefit for us in Q3, we brought our lead times back in check on kinetics.

所以，哈倫，我認為第三季度對我們有利的關鍵因素之一是，我們將交貨時間重新控制在了動力學上。

Early in the year, were talking about that we were out at 39-week lead times, which was just unacceptable for our customers, and we're downtime in the 14, 15-week lead time at the current basis.

今年早些時候，我們在談論我們在 39 週的交貨時間下，這對我們的客戶來說是不可接受的，而且我們在目前的基礎上在 14、15 週的交貨時間內停工。

So that transition -- obviously, as you go through that transition, it creates a little confusion with your distribution customers as well.

所以這種轉變——很明顯，當你經歷這種轉變時，它也會給你的分銷客戶造成一些混亂。

So we kind of gone through in Q3, but clearly, based on the results that you talked about, we would have gained share in Q3 based on the strong portfolio we have.

所以我們在第三季度經歷了一些，但很明顯，根據你談到的結果，我們將在第三季度獲得基於我們強大的投資組合的份額。

As you pointed out, we're really focused on 32-bit arm, we're not focused on 8-bit kind of general marketplace.

正如您所指出的，我們真正專注於 32 位 arm，我們並不專注於 8 位一般市場。

And I think that played out well for us.

我認為這對我們來說效果很好。

We continued to have the broadest platform in place with the high-performance kinetics and the LPC in the low end as well as in the apps processor on the i.MX in the product that we just announced recently on the first implementation of the crossover from i.MX technology, but had a micro cost associated with it.

我們繼續擁有最廣泛的平台，具有高性能動力學和低端 LPC 以及 i.MX 上的應用程序處理器，在我們最近剛剛宣布的產品中首次實現交叉i.MX 技術，但有與之相關的微成本。

So I think we continue to feel like we've got the broadest portfolio, the best portfolio for our customers, really trying to see how they can use the cloud to implement the disruption opportunity that people talk about as IoT.

所以我認為我們仍然覺得我們擁有最廣泛的產品組合，為我們的客戶提供最好的產品組合，真正想看看他們如何使用雲來實現人們所說的物聯網的顛覆機會。

For the last few years, everybody's been talking about IoT, but it was really hard to get your hands around what was real.

在過去的幾年裡，每個人都在談論物聯網，但很難掌握真實的東西。

And I think what we see is the clarity of being able to take advantage of the cloud now through the computing at the edge and bringing that secured, and I emphasize the word secure, computing to the edge to be able to get that.

我認為我們現在看到的是能夠通過邊緣計算來利用雲計算的清晰性，並帶來安全性，我強調安全這個詞，計算到邊緣能夠實現這一點。

But clearly, I think based on the results you talked about, we did gain share in Q3 and hope to be in a position with our portfolio to continue to maintain that going forward and grow it.

但很明顯，我認為根據你談到的結果，我們確實在第三季度獲得了份額，並希望能夠在我們的投資組合中繼續保持並發展它。

Good performance there.

那裡表現不錯。

Manufacturing utilization trends, 87% in Q3, how was the team positioning utilizations in Q4?

製造利用率趨勢，第三季度為 87%，團隊如何定位第四季度的利用率？

I think the interesting thing about that is you can't take as much out of that as you used to a couple of years ago on the utilization.

我認為有趣的是，你不能像幾年前那樣在利用率上從中得到那麼多。

One of the things that we're going through is, our individual factories have some unique requirements to be able to meet the ramp-up associated with our RADAR requirements internally as well as some of our others.

我們正在經歷的一件事是，我們的各個工廠有一些獨特的要求，能夠滿足與我們內部以及其他一些 RADAR 要求相關的提升。

So as we -- and we have our capacity limited in some of our analog side of our automotive business.

因此，我們在汽車業務的某些模擬方面的能力有限。

So as we implement the expanded capacity on that, I think that, that creates a little bit of a factor that's not as significant on the utilization itself.

因此，當我們對此實施擴展容量時，我認為這會產生一些對利用率本身並不重要的因素。

We continue to grow our external support as well, so I think, today, we're kind of a little over...

我們也在繼續增加我們的外部支持，所以我認為，今天，我們有點過頭了……

Just over 50%.

剛剛超過50%。

Yes, a little over 50% that's external.

是的，超過 50% 是外部的。

But the utilization, I don't think you can take as much about that on a quarterly basis and, specifically, right now as we go through the transition and trying to expand our capacity in RADAR as well as some of our unique analog capacity -- auto analog capacity, we'll go through a little bit of tempering of utilization to be able to bring up that capacity.

但是利用率，我認為您不能按季度對此進行太多處理，特別是現在，我們正在經歷過渡並試圖擴大我們在 RADAR 方面的能力以及我們的一些獨特的模擬能力 - - 自動模擬容量，我們將通過一些使用的鍛煉來提高該容量。

Overall, it would be about the same in Q4 as it was in Q3.

總體而言，第四季度與第三季度的情況大致相同。

But as Rick said, it's kind of a useless indicator these days.

但正如 Rick 所說，如今它是一種無用的指標。

And only what is a 12.5% of our COGS goes through the internal numbers, if you do some trends on that.

如果您對此進行一些趨勢分析，那麼只有 12.5% 的 COGS 會通過內部數據。

And then you have to look at it by factory.

然後你必須通過工廠來查看它。

So it's kind of interesting as an indicator, but it's kind of not very useful in terms of helping you understand what's going on, on the cost.

所以它作為一個指標有點有趣，但它在幫助你了解正在發生的事情和成本方面並不是很有用。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had a question on automotive, going into 2019.

我有一個關於汽車的問題，進入 2019 年。

Rick, you've talked about the design win momentum in MCUs with your S32 family.

Rick，您談到了 S32 系列在 MCU 中的設計獲胜勢頭。

You've talked about RADAR.

你談到了雷達。

You've talked about BMS as well.

您也談到了 BMS。

I know it's kind of early, but from a content growth perspective, how do you see momentum going into 2019?

我知道這有點早，但從內容增長的角度來看，您如何看待 2019 年的發展勢頭？

We -- what we talk about is over the 3-year period of time, I think '19 will be a clear indication in implementation associated with that.

我們 - 我們談論的是在 3 年的時間段內，我認為 19 年將清楚地表明與此相關的實施。

As we went through -- Kurt talked about at the Analyst Day that even with a 1% or 2% growth in actual car production, which we think still with the growth of the middle class in a developing world, specifically in China, but Southeast Asia as well, we'll see some production increase in cars.

正如我們所經歷的——庫爾特在分析師日談到，即使實際汽車產量增長 1% 或 2%，我們認為這仍然伴隨著發展中國家中產階級的增長，特別是在中國，但在東南部亞洲也是如此，我們將看到汽車產量有所增加。

But even without that, we'll see the content driving a significant opportunity for us to continue to grow kind of mid to high single digit through the implementation of RADAR and Level 2 and 3 capability of the car, which is -- we think we're in a very solid position to be able to continue to maintain our leadership position in the overall RADAR solution.

但即使沒有這一點，我們也會看到內容為我們提供了一個重要的機會，通過實施 RADAR 和汽車的 2 級和 3 級能力，繼續實現中高個位數增長，這就是 - 我們認為我們'處於非常穩固的地位，能夠繼續保持我們在整體 RADAR 解決方案中的領先地位。

The implementation of ethernet to be able to process data around the car at a much higher speed that's required for the implementation of ADAS, and the changed architecture of the car with the domain controllers and ability for the car companies to really look at a different implementation, which our S32 family of product fits very nicely into.

以太網的實施能夠以更高的速度處理汽車周圍的數據，這是實施 ADAS 所需的，以及具有域控制器的汽車架構的變化以及汽車公司真正考慮不同實施的能力，我們的 S32 系列產品非常適合。

So we feel very comfortable with our position in automotive and look forward to continuing to expand it.

因此，我們對我們在汽車領域的地位感到非常滿意，並期待繼續擴大它。

And I think that will take place in '19 as the first year of the 3-year basis that we've talked about at the Analyst Day.

我認為這將在 19 年作為我們在分析師日討論的 3 年基礎的第一年進行。

So is it fair to assume that you come in within the range of the 7% to 10% growth rate in 2019 as well?

那麼假設您在 2019 年也處於 7% 到 10% 的增長率範圍內是否公平？

Look, Toshiya, I don't think we're going to guide 2019.

聽著，Toshiya，我認為我們不會指導 2019 年。

I think we've laid out a 3-year target for our businesses, 7% to 10% for the automotive business, all driven by the different irons we have in the fire, as Rick laid out, but we're not going to guide '19 specifically.

我認為我們已經為我們的業務制定了一個 3 年的目標，汽車業務為 7% 到 10%，所有這些都是由我們在火中使用的不同鐵桿推動的，正如 Rick 所製定的，但我們不會專門指導'19。

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，夠公平的。

And then as a quick follow-up for Peter on gross margins, again, I just wanted to confirm, in a flattish revenue environment in 2019, are you still confident -- if that were to be the case, can you still hit that 55% gross margin target exiting the year?

然後作為彼得對毛利率的快速跟進，我只是想再次確認，在 2019 年收入持平的環境中，你是否仍然有信心——如果是這樣的話，你還能達到 55 % 毛利率目標退出今年？

And if so, what would be some of the drivers?

如果是這樣，一些驅動因素會是什麼？

Yes, and exactly the same drivers I described at the Analyst Day because the reality is even if it's flat, you will see changes in mix.

是的，和我在分析師日描述的完全一樣的驅動因素，因為現實是即使它是平的，你也會看到組合的變化。

But it's all about kind of how we drive our cost reduction and manage our pricing.

但這一切都與我們如何推動成本降低和定價管理有關。

But I think you have to be realistic with the economic environment we see.

但我認為你必須對我們所看到的經濟環境持現實態度。

We think it would be hard for the year to be flat based on the economic environment unless something more to weaken significantly in the general economic environment.

我們認為，基於經濟環境，今年很難持平，除非總體經濟環境進一步顯著減弱。

So while we're going through this cloudy period, I think you've got to be careful about not looking too far in the future associated with that so long as the robust economic environment is still in place.

因此，儘管我們正在經歷這段陰雲密布的時期，但我認為只要穩健的經濟環境仍然存在，您就必須小心不要將與此相關的未來看得太遠。

Clearly, the semiconductor industry is going to drive content gain after we get through this quarter or 2 of uncertainty associated with what's going on in the marketplace.

顯然，在我們度過與市場上正在發生的事情相關的本季度或第二季度的不確定性之後，半導體行業將推動內容收益。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, Peter, first question, trying to better understand kind of debt financing interest expense going forward and your means for additional buyback.

我想，彼得，第一個問題，試圖更好地了解未來的債務融資利息支出類型以及您進行額外回購的方式。

So could you tell us what kind of cash you need to run the business, what you're planning in terms of the debt refinancing, both the bridge and the cash convertible notes and how we should think about potential incremental debt on top of that in the coming months?

那麼你能告訴我們你需要什麼樣的現金來經營業務，你在債務再融資方面的計劃，包括過橋票據和現金可轉換票據，以及我們應該如何考慮潛在的增量債務未來幾個月？

Okay.

好的。

So we want to run 2x net debt for trailing 12-month EBITDA.

因此，我們希望為過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 運行 2 倍的淨債務。

So to the extent that the markets come upright, we would add additional debt.

因此，如果市場恢復正常，我們會增加額外的債務。

We've mentioned on my call kind of looking at that, so this quarter, we definitely look to replace the bridge with the bond that converts -- that comes due the end of next year, same thing we look to replace that with a convert.

我們在電話會議中提到過這種情況，所以本季度，我們肯定希望用可轉換的債券來取代橋樑——這將在明年年底到期，我們希望用轉換的債券來取代它.

And I guess, very, very roughly, a 2x net debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA.

我猜，非常非常粗略地，淨債務是過去 12 個月 EBITDA 的 2 倍。

That would say between now and the end of next year, you could buy back an additional $3 billion, very roughly and then in subsequent years $2-plus billion per year.

也就是說，從現在到明年年底，您可以再回購 30 億美元，非常粗略，然後在隨後的幾年中每年回購 2 多億美元。

But as Peter talked about replacing the convert, we probably would not be replacing the convert with a convert at the current equity price.

但是當彼得談到替換轉換者時，我們可能不會用當前股價的轉換者來替換轉換者。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

I mean, it's -- current equity prices could be absolutely be a bond, but that's a year away.

我的意思是，目前的股價絕對可能是一種債券，但那是一年之後的事了。

Got you.

得到你。

Great.

偉大的。

And I guess, as a follow-up, from a free cash flow margin perspective, I think you're running around 20% in the last 2 years, excluding the Qualcomm payment.

而且我想，作為後續行動，從自由現金流利潤率的角度來看，我認為你在過去 2 年中運行了大約 20%，不包括高通的付款。

So curious, can you kind of walk through how you plan to drive that higher?

很好奇，你能介紹一下你打算如何把它推得更高嗎？

You've talked about gross margin.

你談到了毛利率。

I imagine that flows right through.

我想那會直接流過。

Are there other drivers that you're working on?

您是否正在研究其他驅動程序？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

So the extent that EBIT margin increases, cash flow margin would increase.

因此，EBIT 利潤率增加的程度，現金流量利潤率就會增加。

So at a real simple level, EBIT margin will increase because gross margin will improve and OpEx percent will decline.

所以在一個真正簡單的層面上，息稅前利潤率會增加，因為毛利率會提高，而運營支出百分比會下降。

But your working capital will be kind of about what it is.

但你的營運資金將與它的本質有關。

So yes, I mean, it's directly connected with EBIT margins.

所以是的，我的意思是，它與息稅前利潤率直接相關。

Yes, I think one thing that we talked about at the Analyst Day is we might invest -- we plan to invest a little more in CapEx in the near term really to take advantage of some of the opportunities that we have with some of our unique processes that will be a little bit of a factor above the 5% for a short period of time.

是的，我認為我們在分析師日討論的一件事是我們可能會投資——我們計劃在短期內對資本支出進行更多投資，以真正利用我們擁有的一些獨特的機會在短時間內會稍微高於 5% 的過程。

But our cash flow position, we think, is in a very strong position and the growth of the business that we feel very good about, over the next 3 years, we'll continue to generate a huge amount of cash.

但我們認為，我們的現金流狀況非常強勁，我們對業務增長感到非常滿意，在未來 3 年，我們將繼續產生大量現金。

Our next question comes from Chris Danely with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Danely。

Just a quick question on, I guess, next year.

只是一個簡單的問題，我猜，明年。

So Rick, you talked about the murky environment right now.

所以瑞克，你現在談到了陰暗的環境。

If the environment stays "murky", conceptually, what should we be thinking about for Q1 revenue on a sequential basis?

如果環境仍然“模糊不清”，從概念上講，我們應該如何考慮第一季度的連續收入？

Like down 5% to 10% will be something reasonable range?

像下降 5% 到 10% 會是合理的範圍嗎？

We don't guide Q1.

我們不指導 Q1。

I mean, clearly, you can go and look historic seasonality, but we're not guiding Q1.

我的意思是，很明顯，你可以去看看歷史性的季節性，但我們不是在指導第一季度。

Yes, I think that one thing that you talked about though on the cloudy environment, if the economic environment stays as robust as it is, this cloudy environment cannot continue for a prolonged period of time.

是的，我認為您在多雲環境中談到的一件事，如果經濟環境保持如此強勁，這種多雲環境無法持續很長時間。

So long as production rates continue and the economic growth continues, you have to get back to a steady increase in production.

只要生產率繼續保持，經濟增長繼續，你就必須恢復生產的穩定增長。

So we don't anticipate that something is prolonged for an extended period of time unless the economic environment were to worsen because of the FUD factor associated with the tariffs and trade wars.

因此，除非與關稅和貿易戰相關的 FUD 因素導致經濟環境惡化，否則我們預計某些事情不會持續很長時間。

So if those don't materialize, we don't think this is -- this cloudy environment will continue for a prolonged period of time throughout next year.

因此，如果這些沒有實現，我們認為不會——這種多雲的環境將在明年持續很長一段時間。

Operator, we'll take one more call, and then we'll plan to wrap it up here today.

接線員，我們再接一個電話，然後我們計劃今天在這裡結束。

Our last question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Tore Svanberg 和 Stifel。

First question, Rick, you've talked about lead times for the microcontroller business, but can you talk about trends of your lead times for sort of the overall business over the last few quarters?

第一個問題，Rick，你談到了微控制器業務的交貨時間，但你能談談過去幾個季度整體業務的交貨時間趨勢嗎？

For the LPC business?

對於LPC業務？

No, for -- so lead times in general for your business.

不，因為 - 所以一般來說，您的業務的交貨時間。

You've talked specifically about microcontrollers earlier.

您之前已經專門討論過微控制器。

Yes.

是的。

No, I think, in general, that's kind of the typical lead time that we have is in that 12- to 16-week period of time across the board.

不，我認為，總的來說，這是我們擁有的典型交貨時間，即全面的 12 到 16 週的時間段。

So I don't think there's anything that's different in that.

所以我不認為這有什麼不同。

It depends on the actual manufacturing cycle time of some of our unique products, but we're pretty much in that typical lead time, and we see it in a very healthy situation right now.

這取決於我們一些獨特產品的實際製造週期時間，但我們幾乎處於典型的交貨時間，我們現在看到它處於非常健康的狀態。

And, Tore, you have to remember, most of the auto business, which is almost 50% of the revenue, runs on a vendor-managed inventory model, right, which is kind of theoretically 0 lead time business since we consign inventory to different build locations.

而且，Tore，你必須記住，大部分汽車業務，幾乎佔收入的 50%，都是在供應商管理的庫存模型上運行的，對，這在理論上是一種零交貨時間業務，因為我們將庫存委託給不同的建立地點。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And as my follow-up, Peter, do you have the CapEx number for next year, forecast at this point?

作為我的後續行動，彼得，你有明年的資本支出數字嗎？

At the Analyst Day, we said our normal run rate is 5%, but over the next 3 years, we could spend up to 7% per year.

在分析師日，我們說我們的正常運行率為 5%，但在接下來的 3 年中，我們每年最多可以花費 7%。

Thanks a lot.

非常感謝。

So once again, thanks for joining us today after our second quarter here following our 21-month quiet period with the Qualcomm transaction.

因此，再次感謝您在我們與高通交易的 21 個月靜默期之後的第二季度之後今天加入我們。

Clearly, as we've talked about, we think the near-term period and the cloudiness associated with it, we'll be able to work our way through.

顯然，正如我們已經談到的，我們認為近期和與之相關的多雲，我們將能夠通過我們的方式。

The key factors is with the overall growth in the economy, we think that this will not be a prolonged period of cloudiness that we'll work our way through to back to see a steady growth rate over the next few quarters.

關鍵因素是經濟的整體增長，我們認為這不會是一段長時間的陰雲密布，我們將繼續努力，在接下來的幾個季度看到穩定的增長率。

But clearly, the product position that we have, the design wins that we continue to win and the cash flow capability of our business is what excites us about the opportunity to create real shareholder value and look forward to your continued support.

但顯然，我們擁有的產品地位、我們繼續贏得的設計勝利以及我們業務的現金流能力讓我們有機會創造真正的股東價值並期待您的繼續支持。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you very much, everyone.

非常感謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

這確實結束了程序。

You may all disconnect.

你們都可以斷開連接。

Everyone, have a great day.

大家，有一個美好的一天。