NatWest Group PLC (NWG) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. As usual, I'm here with Katie. I'll start with a brief introduction before Katie takes you through the numbers, and we'll then open it up for questions.

各位早安，感謝今天加入我們。照例，我與 Katie 一起出席。我會先做簡短開場介紹，接著由 Katie 帶各位看數字，之後我們會開放提問。

We started the year with strong momentum across our three businesses and made good progress against each of our three strategic priorities. First, we continue to pursue disciplined growth. In Retail Banking, we increased our share of the mortgage market as we expand our offering and announced new partnerships such as becoming the exclusive mortgage provider for Rightmove.

我們以三大業務的強勁動能展開新的一年，並在三項策略重點上都取得良好進展。第一，我們持續追求有紀律的成長。在零售銀行方面，隨著我們擴大產品供給，我們提升了房貸市場占有率，並宣布新的合作夥伴關係，例如成為 Rightmove 的獨家房貸提供銀行。

In Private Banking & Wealth Management, our acquisition of Evelyn Partners makes a strong addition to the group. The transaction is progressing well, and we expect it to complete in the second quarter, subject to the usual regulatory approval. In Commercial & Institutional, we are the leading bank for UK start-ups, and we grew our share this quarter as we onboarded 24,000 new start-ups, a 25% uplift on the same period last year, supported by easier agentic onboarding.

在私人銀行與財富管理方面，我們收購 Evelyn Partners 為集團帶來強而有力的補強。交易進展順利，預期在取得一般所需的監管核准後，將於第二季完成。在商業與機構業務方面，我們是英國新創企業的領先往來銀行，本季在更便捷的代理式（agentic）開戶流程支持下，我們新增承作 24,000 家新創企業，較去年同期增加 25%，並因此提升了市占率。

Second, we are leveraging our investments in simplification and have delivered over GBP100 million of additional cost savings in the first quarter. We employ over 12,000 software engineers, and we are complementing that talent with artificial intelligence. So over 40% of our code is now written by AI, and we are scaling agentic software development. Typically, our development process for new customer propositions requires 12 engineers and takes 6 weeks. But in some scenarios, with a team of 3 engineers and 7 agents, we can deliver in just 6 hours, making us more productive and delivering faster for our customers.

第二，我們正發揮在簡化方面的投資效益，並在第一季額外實現超過 1 億英鎊的成本節省。我們聘有超過 12,000 名軟體工程師，並以人工智慧補強這些人才。因此，目前超過 40% 的程式碼由 AI 撰寫，我們也正在擴大代理式軟體開發。一般而言，我們開發新的客戶方案需要 12 名工程師並耗時 6 週；但在某些情境下，透過 3 名工程師與 7 個代理（agents）的團隊，我們可在短短 6 小時內交付，提升生產力並更快為客戶提供服務。

Third, we continue to manage our balance sheet actively, helping to free up capacity for further growth and allocate capital dynamically in this fast-changing environment.

第三，我們持續積極管理資產負債表，協助釋放更多容量以支持進一步成長，並在這個快速變動的環境中動態配置資本。

So let's turn now to the financial headlines. Customer lending grew 6.6% year-on-year to GBP400 billion, whilst customer deposits grew 2.6% to GBP445 billion. Lending growth of GBP7.3 billion in the first quarter was well balanced across our businesses, including GBP3.3 billion in mortgages and GBP3.8 billion in Commercial & Institutional. We also provided over GBP10 billion of climate and transition finance, taking the total to GBP29 billion since last July, making good progress towards our GBP200 billion 2030 target.

接著來看財務重點。客戶放款年增 6.6% 至 4,000 億英鎊，客戶存款則成長 2.6% 至 4,450 億英鎊。第一季放款增加 73 億英鎊，在各業務間分布均衡，其中房貸增加 33 億英鎊，商業與機構業務增加 38 億英鎊。我們也提供超過 100 億英鎊的氣候與轉型融資，使自去年 7 月以來的累計金額達 290 億英鎊，朝 2030 年 2,000 億英鎊目標持續取得良好進展。

Deposits increased by GBP3.1 billion in the first quarter with growth in Corporate & Institutional, partly offset by an expected decrease in Retail and Private Banking as customers use their savings to make annual tax payments. Assets under management and administration grew 16.9% year-on-year to GBP57 billion. 23,000 people invested with us for the first time during the quarter, with net inflows to assets under management of GBP900 million. Taken together, client assets and liabilities have increased to just over GBP900 billion, up 5.2% year-on-year, in line with our 2028 annual growth rate target of more than 4%.

第一季存款增加 31 億英鎊，其中企業與機構業務成長，部分被零售與私人銀行存款的預期下降所抵銷，因客戶動用儲蓄支付年度稅款。管理與代管資產（AUMA）年增 16.9% 至 570 億英鎊。本季有 23,000 人首次透過我們進行投資，管理資產淨流入 9 億英鎊。綜合而言，客戶資產與負債合計已增至略高於 9,000 億英鎊，年增 5.2%，符合我們 2028 年 CAL 年成長率超過 4% 的目標。

Income grew 6.9% to GBP4.2 billion, and costs were up 4.8% to GBP2 billion as we increased our operating leverage and reduced our cost/income ratio by 2.1% points to 46.5%. Our return on tangible equity was 18.2%, driving strong capital generation of 65 basis points in the first quarter. Earnings per share grew 15.5% year-on-year to 17.9p. Tangible net asset value per share was up 15.1% to GBP4, and we continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with a CET1 ratio of 14.3%.

收入成長 6.9% 至 42 億英鎊，成本上升 4.8% 至 20 億英鎊；隨著我們提升營運槓桿，成本／收入比下降 2.1 個百分點至 46.5%。有形股東權益報酬率（RoTE）為 18.2%，帶動第一季強勁的資本生成 65 個基點。每股盈餘年增 15.5% 至 17.9 便士。每股有形淨資產價值上升 15.1% 至 4 英鎊；我們持續維持強健的資產負債表，普通股權益第一類資本（CET1）比率為 14.3%。

Since we announced our full year results in February, conflict in the Middle East has clearly increased geopolitical uncertainty. While sentiment is now more considered, we have yet to see any material impact on our customers. Both households and corporates remain resilient with historically high levels of savings and low levels of debt and arrears. In light of this uncertainty, we have revised our economic scenarios and now expect higher inflation with interest rates remaining at 3.75% for the rest of the year, resulting in slower economic growth and a modest increase in unemployment.

自我們在 2 月公布全年業績以來，中東衝突顯然加劇了地緣政治不確定性。雖然市場情緒目前更為審慎，但我們尚未看到對客戶造成任何重大影響。家庭與企業仍具韌性，儲蓄水準處於歷史高位，負債與逾期水準偏低。鑑於此不確定性，我們已調整經濟情境，並預期通膨將更高、利率在今年剩餘期間維持 3.75%，因此經濟成長放緩、失業率小幅上升。

This means we have taken an additional provision in the first quarter of GBP140 million, which reflects our macroeconomic assumptions, not our credit performance, which remains strong. With rates staying higher for longer, we now expect full year income to be at the top end of the GBP17.2 billion to GBP17.6 billion range we set out in February.

因此，我們在第一季額外提列 1.4 億英鎊的準備金，這反映的是我們的總體經濟假設，而非我們的信用表現；我們的信用表現仍然強勁。在利率維持較高水準更久的情況下，我們目前預期全年收入將落在我們 2 月提出的 172 億至 176 億英鎊區間的上緣。

So we remain confident about the outlook and our 2026 guidance. That confidence is underpinned by the knowledge that we have built a resilient business, which is well positioned for a broad range of macro environments. We have a clear strategic focus on growth that delivers good returns with a prime lending portfolio that's well diversified and largely secured. We have invested and simplified so that we are now the most efficient large UK bank with a cost-to-income ratio that continues to improve, and we are actively managing our balance sheet.

因此，我們對前景以及 2026 年指引仍具信心。這份信心來自我們已建立具韌性的業務模式，能在多種總體環境下保持良好定位。我們在成長策略上聚焦於能帶來良好報酬的成長，擁有多元分散且以擔保為主的優質放款組合。我們已投資並完成簡化，使我們成為英國大型銀行中效率最高者，成本／收入比持續改善，同時我們也積極管理資產負債表。

For example, we have taken the opportunity of a sharp move upwards in the yield curve to accelerate the increase in our structural hedge, supporting income growth in the years ahead. We have also increased our capital efficiency significantly in recent years, driving high levels of capital generation. All these factors have contributed to our strong performance in the Bank of England stress tests, giving us confidence in our outlook and guidance not just this year, but over the medium term.

例如，我們把握殖利率曲線大幅上移的機會，加速提高我們的結構性避險（structural hedge），以支持未來數年的收入成長。近年來我們也顯著提升資本效率，帶動高水準的資本生成。上述因素共同促成我們在英格蘭銀行壓力測試中的強勁表現，使我們不僅對今年的展望與指引有信心，也對中期表現充滿信心。

With that, I'll hand over to Katie to take you through the numbers in more detail.

接下來我把時間交給 Katie，請她帶各位更詳細地看數字。

Thank you, Paul. My comments for the first quarter use the fourth quarter as a comparator. Income, excluding notable items, reduced 1.1% to GBP4.2 billion, and total operating costs were 9.2% lower at GBP2 billion, delivering 11.6% growth in operating profit before impairment to GBP2.3 billion. The impairment charge was GBP283 million, equivalent to 26 basis points of loans, including the charge for our updated economic scenarios that Paul mentioned. This resulted in operating profit of GBP2 billion, with profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of GBP1.4 billion, and return on tangible equity was 18.2%.

謝謝你，Paul。我對第一季的評論將以第四季作為比較基準。剔除重大項目後的收入下降 1.1% 至 42 億英鎊；總營運成本下降 9.2% 至 20 億英鎊，使減值前營業利益成長 11.6% 至 23 億英鎊。減值費用為 2.83 億英鎊，相當於放款的 26 個基點，其中包含 Paul 提到、因我們更新經濟情境而產生的費用。因此，營業利益為 20 億英鎊，歸屬普通股股東之獲利為 14 億英鎊，有形股東權益報酬率為 18.2%。

Turning now to income. Income, excluding notable items, was GBP4.2 billion. Excluding the impact of two fewer days in the quarter, income across the 3 businesses continued to grow, supported by both volumes and margin. Net interest margin was 247 basis points, up 2 basis points due to deposit margin expansion and a small benefit from funding and other, with lending margin declining by 2 basis points, mainly driven by mortgages.

接著看收入。剔除重大項目後的收入為 42 億英鎊。若排除本季少了兩天的影響，三大業務的收入仍持續成長，並同時受惠於量與利差。淨利差為 247 個基點，增加 2 個基點，主要來自存款利差擴大，以及資金與其他項目帶來的小幅助益；放款利差則下降 2 個基點，主要受房貸影響。

As you heard from Paul, our 2026 guidance now assumes that the Bank of England base rate remains at 3.75% this year rather than coming down to 3.25%. Together with our revised economic scenarios, this means we now expect income, excluding notable items, to be at the top end of our GBP17.2 billion to GBP17.6 billion range, excluding the impact of Evelyn Partners.

如同 Paul 所說，我們目前的 2026 年指引假設英格蘭銀行基準利率今年維持在 3.75%，而非下調至 3.25%。結合我們修訂後的經濟情境，這表示我們現在預期剔除重大項目後的收入將落在 172 億至 176 億英鎊區間的上緣，且不包含 Evelyn Partners 的影響。

Turning now to customer assets and liabilities, or CAL. You will recall we introduced our 2028 growth target for CAL in February. I am pleased we are entering another year with strong growth, continuing our track record. Our CAL increased by GBP8.4 billion or 0.9% in the quarter to GBP900 billion. This includes lending growth of GBP7.3 billion, deposit growth of GBP3.1 billion and a reduction in assets under management and administration of GBP1.8 billion as strong AUM inflows were offset by market movements. I'll touch on each of these elements in turn.

接著看客戶資產與負債（CAL）。各位應記得我們在 2 月提出了 2028 年 CAL 的成長目標。我很高興我們以強勁成長進入新的一年，延續我們一貫的紀錄。本季 CAL 增加 84 億英鎊（或 0.9%）至 9,000 億英鎊。其中包含放款成長 73 億英鎊、存款成長 31 億英鎊，以及管理與代管資產減少 18 億英鎊，因管理資產（AUM）強勁淨流入被市場波動所抵銷。接下來我將依序說明這些要素。

We are reporting another quarter of strong broad-based loan growth across the group with gross loans to customers up by GBP7.3 billion. Retail Banking and Private Banking & Wealth Management balances grew GBP3.5 billion or 1.5%. This comprises GBP3.3 billion in mortgage lending and GBP200 million in unsecured lending. Mortgage stock share increased marginally to 12.6%, and we have a robust pipeline following record applications in March.

我們報告本集團本季再度呈現強勁且廣泛的貸款成長，對客戶的總貸款增加了73億英鎊。零售銀行以及私人銀行與財富管理的餘額增加35億英鎊，或1.5%。其中包含33億英鎊的房貸放款與2億英鎊的無擔保放款。房貸存量市占率小幅上升至12.6%，且在3月創紀錄的申請量之後，我們的案件管線相當穩健。

Commercial & Institutional lending increased by GBP3.8 billion or 2.4%. This includes growth in corporate and institutions, driven by good demand across a broad range of sectors, including project finance, renewables and utilities and funds lending, together with increased lending in commercial mid-market, notably in commercial real estate and the housing sector. You will also see we have provided a detailed breakdown of our financial institution exposures, including private credit in the appendix of our presentation.

商業與機構放款增加38億英鎊，或2.4%。其中包含企業與機構業務的成長，主要受多元產業的良好需求帶動，包括專案融資、再生能源與公用事業，以及基金放款；同時商業中型市場的放款亦增加，尤其是在商用不動產與住宅領域。您也會看到，我們已在簡報附錄中提供金融機構曝險的詳細拆解，包括私募信貸。

Turning now to deposits. Customer deposits increased by GBP3.1 billion despite the expected higher seasonal tax outflows. Commercial & Institutional deposits increased by GBP5.1 billion. This was partly offset by a slight decline in Retail Banking and Private Banking & Wealth Management deposits as a result of higher customer tax payments of GBP10.3 billion. Retail Banking outflows were partly offset by growth in current account and ISA balances. Overall, our deposit mix remained broadly stable.

接著談存款。儘管如預期出現較高的季節性稅款流出，客戶存款仍增加31億英鎊。商業與機構存款增加51億英鎊。這部分被零售銀行以及私人銀行與財富管理存款的小幅下降所抵銷，原因是客戶稅款支付增加103億英鎊。零售銀行的資金流出部分被活期帳戶與ISA餘額成長所抵銷。整體而言，我們的存款結構大致維持穩定。

Turning now to assets under management. Assets under management and administration closed the quarter at GBP56.7 billion. We are pleased with positive AUM net inflows of GBP0.9 billion, which equates to 8.2% of opening AUM, demonstrating continued client confidence and strong momentum. There was a reduction in assets under administration of GBP1.4 billion, driven by gilt redemptions to support client tax payments. Overall, balances were impacted by negative market movements of GBP1.7 billion. However, these were reversed during April.

接著談受託管理資產。受託管理與受託行政資產在本季末為567億英鎊。我們對AUM淨流入9億英鎊感到滿意，約相當於期初AUM的8.2%，顯示客戶信心持續以及強勁動能。受託行政資產減少14億英鎊，主要因英國公債到期償還以支應客戶稅款支付。整體餘額亦受到17億英鎊的負面市場波動影響；不過，這些影響在4月已出現反轉。

Turning now to costs. Other operating expenses were GBP2 billion, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year and a decrease of 8.3% compared with the fourth quarter. Our cost/income ratio in the quarter was 46.5%. We are pleased with the progress we've made on our transformation, and we made decisions to accelerate investment spend and incur higher restructuring costs in the first quarter, which drove the overall cost growth year-on-year. The reduction from the fourth quarter is mainly due to ongoing cost savings as well as lower bank levies. We remain confident in the delivery of our full year 2026 cost guidance of around GBP8.2 billion, though our cost profile will be uneven throughout the year.

接著談成本。其他營運費用為20億英鎊，年增4.8%，較第四季下降8.3%。本季成本／收入比為46.5%。我們對轉型進展感到滿意，並在第一季決定加速投資支出並承擔較高的重組成本，帶動整體成本年增。相較第四季的下降，主要來自持續的成本節省以及較低的銀行徵費。我們仍有信心達成2026全年約82億英鎊的成本指引，但全年成本走勢將不會均勻。

Turning now to our updated macroeconomic assumptions. Following a period of global macro uncertainty, we have revised our economic assumptions. In our revised base case, we assumed inflation now means CPI will peak at 3.5% in 2026 rather than fall to 2% by the end of the year. This means interest rates stay higher for longer, and we assume the bank rate remains at 3.75% throughout the year. We expect lower GDP growth of 0.4% and a modest increase in unemployment to a peak of 5.7%, above our previous assumptions of 5.4%. This remains at levels we are comfortable with in terms of lending risk appetite and credit quality. We will continue to review our assumptions as the situation progresses.

接著談我們更新後的總體經濟假設。在一段全球宏觀不確定性期間之後，我們已修訂經濟假設。在修訂後的基準情境中，我們假設通膨意味著CPI將於2026年見頂至3.5%，而非在今年年底前降至2%。這表示利率將在較高水準維持更久，我們假設銀行利率全年維持在3.75%。我們預期GDP成長較低，為0.4%，失業率溫和上升至高點5.7%，高於先前假設的5.4%。就放款風險偏好與信用品質而言，這仍在我們可接受的水準。我們將隨情勢發展持續檢視相關假設。

Our balance sheet remains well provisioned with an expected credit loss of GBP3.7 billion and ECL coverage ratio of 84 basis points. Our latest scenarios also show that even if we were to give 100% weight to our new moderate downside scenario, this would increase Stage 1 and 2 ECL by GBP99 million or 2 basis points.

我們的資產負債表仍維持充足的提存，預期信用損失（ECL）為37億英鎊，ECL覆蓋率為84個基點。我們最新的情境也顯示，即使我們對新的「中度下行情境」給予100%權重，第一與第二階段ECL也僅會增加9,900萬英鎊，或2個基點。

Turning now to the impairment charge. The impairment charge for the quarter was GBP283 million, equivalent to 26 basis points of loans. This includes a charge of GBP140 million as a result of changes in economic scenarios and total post-model adjustment releases of GBP34 million as elements were effectively consumed by changes in our economic scenarios. Excluding these, our underlying impairment charge was 16 basis points. There were no new signs of stress across our 3 businesses, and the current credit performance of our book remains strong. We continue to expect a loan impairment rate below 25 basis points for 2026. So our guidance is unchanged.

接著談減損費用。本季減損費用為2.83億英鎊，相當於貸款的26個基點。其中包含因經濟情境變動而產生的1.40億英鎊費用，以及模型後調整（post-model adjustment）釋回合計3,400萬英鎊，因部分項目實際上已被經濟情境變動所消耗。排除上述因素後，我們的基礎減損費用為16個基點。我們三大業務並未出現新的壓力跡象，資產組合目前的信用表現仍然強勁。我們仍預期2026年的貸款減損率低於25個基點，因此指引維持不變。

Turning now to capital. We ended the quarter with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 14.3%, up 30 basis points since the end of the year. Capital generation before distributions was strong at 65 basis points. This includes 69 basis points from earnings. Other regulatory capital movements added 16 basis points. Growth in risk-weighted assets consumed 21 basis points of capital, and our usual accrual for ordinary dividend payments reduced capital by a further 37 basis points.

接著談資本。我們以普通股權第一級資本比率（CET1）14.3%結束本季，較年末上升30個基點。分配前的資本生成強勁，為65個基點，其中69個基點來自盈餘。其他監理資本變動貢獻16個基點。風險加權資產成長消耗21個基點資本，而我們對普通股股利支付的例行應計則使資本再下降37個基點。

Risk-weighted assets increased by GBP2.7 billion. GBP4.3 billion of business movements broadly reflects our lending growth and increased market risk. This was partly offset by a reduction of GBP2.2 billion as a result of actively managing our RWAs to create capacity for further growth. Other movements included FX and immaterial CRD IV model updates. We remain confident in our ability to continue generating strong capital from earnings and to manage risk-weighted assets and expect around 200 basis points of capital generation before distributions this year, whilst operating at a CET1 ratio of around 13%.

風險加權資產增加27億英鎊。其中43億英鎊的業務變動大致反映我們的放款成長與市場風險上升；部分被22億英鎊的下降所抵銷，該下降源於我們主動管理RWA以為進一步成長創造容量。其他變動包含外匯以及不具重大性的CRD IV模型更新。我們仍有信心持續由盈餘產生強勁資本並管理風險加權資產，並預期今年分配前資本生成約200個基點，同時將CET1比率維持在約13%的營運水準。

Turning now to guidance. We now expect income, excluding notable items, to be at the top end of our range of GBP17.2 billion to GBP17.6 billion, excluding the impact of the Evelyn Partners acquisition. All our other guidance and targets remain unchanged.

接著談指引。我們目前預期，扣除重大項目後的收入將落在172億至176億英鎊區間的上緣，且不包含Evelyn Partners收購案的影響。其他所有指引與目標均維持不變。

And with that, I'll hand back to the operator for Q&A. Thank you.

那麼，我把時間交還給主持人進行問答。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（主持人指示）

Andrew Coombs, Citi.

花旗，Andrew Coombs。

Morning, thank you for taking my questions. If I could just have one on loan and deposit growth and then I guess the second on average interest-earning assets. On the loan and deposit growth, again, it's a strong performance Q-on-Q, again, led by C&I. If I speak to any investor, particularly those outside the UK they always struggle to link the economic performance in the UK with the strong loan growth and loan demand that you're seeing. So perhaps you can just touch upon what drove the loan and deposit growth, particularly in C&I, where is that demand coming from? How sustainable do you think it is throughout the remainder of the year and into next year?

早安，謝謝讓我提問。我想先問一題關於貸款與存款成長，第二題則是關於平均計息資產。就貸款與存款成長而言，本季環比表現依然強勁，且同樣由商業與機構（C&I）帶動。若我與任何投資人交流，特別是英國以外的投資人，他們總是很難把英國的經濟表現與你們所看到的強勁貸款成長與貸款需求連結起來。因此也許你們可以談談是什麼驅動了貸款與存款成長，特別是在C&I方面，需求來自哪裡？你們認為在今年剩餘時間以及到明年，這樣的成長有多可持續？

And then the second question, I mentioned that loans are up Q-on-Q, deposits up Q-on-Q, but your average interest-earning assets are down 0.2% Q-on-Q. And it seems to be due to a reduction in the liquid asset buffer. So perhaps you could just touch upon that as well and what's driving the disconnect between the average interest-earning assets and the movement in the loan balances. Thank you.

第二個問題，我提到貸款環比上升、存款環比上升，但你們的平均計息資產卻環比下降0.2%。看起來是因為流動性資產緩衝下降所致。因此也請你們談談這點，以及是什麼造成平均計息資產與貸款餘額變動之間的落差。謝謝。

Thanks, Andy. Okay, Katie, why don't I take lending and deposits and then you come back on AIEA.

謝謝，Andy。好的，Katie，不如我先回答放款與存款，然後你再補充AIEA。

Okay.

好的。

Good stuff. So Andy, as you say, good, strong growth on both sides of the balance sheet, pleased on lending and deposits, especially as you know the context of quarter 1 deposits is always higher outflows because of tax payments. Why don't I give an overview, and then I'll drop down into C&I because I'm conscious you wanted some specific color there.

很好。所以Andy，正如你所說，資產負債表兩端都有良好且強勁的成長；我們對放款與存款都感到滿意，尤其如你所知，第一季存款的背景一向是因稅款支付而出現較高的資金流出。不如我先做個概述，接著再深入談C&I，因為我知道你希望在那部分得到更具體的說明。

So lending overall, I'd say it's pretty broad-based. You can see growth in mortgages. You can see growth in C&I. You can see growth in unsecured within Retail as well. And within C&I, you can see it through different business lines. I'd also add that the pipeline remains pretty strong as well in both businesses. So we're encouraged by that. So not only is the activity good, the pipeline -- I was going through it yesterday and -- Wednesday actually, the pipeline of activity looks strong looking ahead into quarter 2 and quarter 3. And as you know, we've consistently grown above market, growth on the lending side. I'll come back to some of the reasons why I think that's true.

就整體放款而言，我會說相當廣泛。你可以看到房貸成長；你可以看到C&I成長；你也可以看到零售端無擔保放款的成長。而在C&I內部，你也能從不同業務線看到成長。我也要補充，兩個業務的案件管線仍相當強勁，我們對此感到鼓舞。因此不只是當期活動良好，管線——我昨天在檢視，——其實是週三，往前看第二季與第三季的活動管線看起來也很強。且如你所知，我們在放款端一直維持高於市場的成長。我會再回到我認為之所以如此的一些原因。

On deposits, two sides to this. As I said, we've got the tax outflows in Retail and Private Banking. They were up 28% year-on-year. So it's a big number, GBP10 billion of deposits. And that was offset by growth in C&I, which was from a combination of things. Some of that was operational deposits, some of that was interest-bearing deposits. I think there, when you think about the size of our corporate and commercial franchise, the reality is we benefit as deposits flow onto corporate balance sheets.

就存款而言，這裡有兩個面向。如我所說，我們在零售與私人銀行端有稅款流出，年增28%。所以這是一個很大的數字，約100億英鎊的存款。而這部分被C&I的成長所抵銷，這來自多種因素的組合。其中一部分是營運性存款，一部分是計息存款。我認為，當你考量我們企業與商業業務版圖的規模時，現實是：當存款流入企業資產負債表時，我們會受益。

If you look into Retail, actually, personal current accounts were up, which is good. That's obviously healthy from a number of factors. And we are starting to see the impact of our -- what we call our Boxed proposition where we're providing savings products to companies like AA, Saga at Sainsbury's, et cetera. So that's also supporting Retail deposits. So that hopefully gives you a kind of big picture view.

如果你看零售端，實際上個人活期帳戶是增加的，這很好。這顯然在多項因素下都是健康的表現。而且我們開始看到我們——我們稱之為Boxed方案——的影響，我們向像AA、Saga、Sainsbury's等公司提供儲蓄產品。因此這也在支撐零售存款。希望這能讓你對整體情況有一個大致的視角。

On C&I specifically, demand has been strong. I think we're very well positioned on what I'd call some of the structural drivers. So project finance, infrastructure, transition finance, utilities, funds lending, energy transition, et cetera. And I think what you can see is the growth in those parts of the market is bigger than, let's call it, the UK systems growth. So I think that helps to explain why our C&I franchise captures the opportunities there, but also outperforms the market.

就C&I而言，需求一直很強。我認為我們在一些我稱之為結構性驅動因素上處於非常有利的位置。因此，專案融資、基礎建設、轉型融資、公用事業、基金放款、能源轉型等等。我想你可以看到，這些市場部分的成長高於——姑且稱之為——英國整體系統的成長。因此我認為這有助於解釋為何我們的C&I業務能夠把握那裡的機會，同時也能跑贏市場。

As I said, the pipelines are strong. So to your point on sustainability, I think those trends are -- they're structural trends, not kind of short-term opportunistic trends. So I think the lending growth and the lending pipelines will continue to support sustainable growth. So net-net, good balance sheet performance. C&I, yes, but also on the Retail side of the business as well. So hopefully, that gives you a bit of color.

如我所說，案源管線很強。因此就你提到的永續性而言，我認為那些趨勢——它們是結構性趨勢，而不是那種短期的機會性趨勢。所以我認為放款成長與放款案源管線將持續支撐可持續的成長。總體而言，資產負債表表現良好。C&I是如此，零售端的業務也是如此。希望這能提供一些補充說明。

Katie?

Katie？

Sure. Thanks very much, Andy. So you're absolutely right. When you look at AIEAs, they were sort of stable in the quarter. They were down kind of 0.2%. A couple of things within there. So reduction reflects the optimization of our surplus liquidity. We repaid around GBP4 billion of TFSME at the end of Q4, and we deployed surplus liquidity to meet our customer loan demand, which we've just been talking about, in a quarter of seasonally lower deposit growth.

好的。非常感謝，Andy。你說得完全正確。當你看AIEAs時，本季大致持平，約下降0.2%。其中有幾點因素。下降反映了我們對超額流動性的最佳化。我們在第四季末償還了約40億英鎊的TFSME，並將超額流動性用於滿足我們的客戶貸款需求——也就是我們剛剛談到的——而本季存款成長具有季節性偏低。

If you look at the kind of the Q1 loan growth of GBP7.3 billion versus the GBP3.1 billion of deposit growth, there's a natural kind of mismatch within there. What I would say is we're 3% higher than AIEAs a year ago, and we do expect them to grow from here going forward as our customer lending increases.

如果你看第一季貸款成長73億英鎊，相較於存款成長31億英鎊，當中自然會有某種不匹配。我想說的是，我們的AIEAs較一年前高出3%，而且我們確實預期，隨著客戶放款增加，AIEAs從現在起將會往上成長。

Great thanks very clear. Thanks, Katie.

很好，謝謝，很清楚。謝謝你，Katie。

Thanks, Andy.

謝謝，Andy。

from Alvaro Serrano, Morgan Stanley.

下一位是Morgan Stanley的Alvaro Serrano。

Hi, hopefully you can hear me okay. Good morning.

嗨，希望你們聽得到我。早安。

Morning, we can hear you clearly.

早安，我們聽得很清楚。

I actually had two questions related to spreads. And the first one is on mortgages. At least I had the expectation of a step down in spread on mortgages in Q1, given the roll-off of the COVID ones. But actually, the spread has held up reasonably well versus my expectations, at least. I think they contributed [324]. Can you -- maybe this one is for Katie, but can you maybe talk to if there's still sort of headwinds ahead and talk to the mortgage front book spreads?

我其實有兩個與利差相關的問題。第一個是房貸。至少我原本預期，考量到COVID期間的房貸到期退出，第一季房貸利差會下滑。但實際上，利差表現比我預期的要穩健，至少就我看是如此。我想它們貢獻了[324]。你們——也許這題給Katie——能否談談接下來是否仍有逆風，以及房貸前台（front book）利差的情況？

And then similarly on commercial, the spreads there, compared to base rates, have been increasing steadily the last 8 quarters or so as you grow the book. What kind of business are you underwriting there? And what do you think it can -- should it continue to improve? Or how do you see the outlook on pricing on corporates as well, commercial? thank you.

然後同樣在商業端，那裡的利差相對於基準利率，在你們擴張資產組合的同時，過去大約8個季度一直穩步上升。你們在那裡承作的是什麼類型的業務？你認為它是否能——或應該——繼續改善？或者你如何看待企業端、商業端的定價前景？謝謝。

Okay. Great, Alvaro. Katie, do you want to start with mortgage?

好的。很好，Alvaro。Katie，你要先從房貸開始嗎？

Yeah, absolutely. Thanks very much. Alvaro, so if we look at Q1, we continue to write mortgages at front book spreads that were below the back book as we did through last year, which we talked about a lot, very much in line with our strategy of delivering steady growth at attractive returns. So I'd say our year-to-date margins are in line with expectations. We did see a bit of volatility in March.

好的，當然。非常感謝。Alvaro，如果我們看第一季，我們持續以低於存量（back book）的前台利差承作房貸，就像去年一整年一樣——我們也談了很多——這非常符合我們的策略：以具吸引力的回報實現穩健成長。所以我會說，我們年初至今的利差表現符合預期。我們在3月確實看到一些波動。

We repriced every two days, so that's 11 kind of changes in 22 days, which I think is a great testament to the flexibility we've built into the system. And we can even see that ability to handle that increased mortgage demand as a result of that investment in the platform and digitization, which has meant we've been able to execute new business at margins which are ahead of the back book in April, which is great to see.

我們每兩天就重新定價一次，也就是在22天內做了11次調整，我認為這很好地證明了我們在系統中建立的彈性。我們甚至也看到，因為對平台與數位化的投資，我們具備處理增加的房貸需求的能力，這也意味著我們在4月能以高於存量（back book）的利差承作新業務，這很令人欣慰。

You're absolutely right to mention the COVID mortgages. We are seeing a little bit of the book margins being impacted by that churn of the five-year COVID era mortgages, and they're rolling off at spreads that are higher than we're currently writing. I would expect that to have worked its way through during the rest of this year. So we expect a little bit of pressure from this on the book margin over the coming quarters.

你提到COVID房貸完全正確。我們確實看到，五年期COVID時期房貸的周轉（churn）正在影響資產組合利差，它們到期退出時的利差高於我們目前新承作的利差。我預期這個影響會在今年剩餘時間逐步反映完畢。因此我們預期，未來幾個季度資產組合利差會因此承受一些壓力。

But I guess as I go to where we are today, where we're writing the mortgages at front book spreads, which are below the back book, what we're seeing is it's starting to bring that back book margin down. We're kind of writing now, you've heard me talk a lot about this kind of below 70 basis points over the last number of quarters. That's kind of continued. And as I look at that number, I think that we will see the book margin to reprice to around 60 basis points over the course of this year. Interestingly, April margins have been above the back book, and we're pleased we were able to capture that.

但我想回到我們目前的狀況：我們以低於存量（back book）的前台利差承作房貸，而我們看到的是，這開始把存量利差往下拉。我們現在承作的水準——你也聽我在過去幾個季度多次提到——大致低於70個基點，這種情況仍在延續。當我看這個數字時，我認為今年內資產組合利差會重新定價到大約60個基點。有趣的是，4月的利差高於存量（back book），我們也很高興能夠把握到。

So I talked to you, remember at the year-end, Alvaro, around 1 to 2 basis points impact on our NIM walk per quarter throughout this year. You absolutely saw that already in our walk. This quarter, you should expect to see that. What I'd also really encourage you is don't forget to see that you have the deposit margin expansion that's going to more than offset that negative. Hopefully, Alvaro, that gives you what you need.

所以我在年末時跟你談過，Alvaro，今年每一季在我們的NIM變動拆解（walk）中，大約會有1到2個基點的影響。你在我們這一季的拆解中已經清楚看到。接下來你也應該會看到。我也很想提醒你別忘了：存款利差擴張將會遠遠抵銷這個負面影響。希望這能回答你的問題，Alvaro。

Paul, are you going to do the commercial spread or shall I -

Paul，你要回答商業利差，還是我——

Yes, happy to.

是的，我很樂意。

Okay, perfect.

好的，太好了。

Thanks, Katie, and thanks, Alvaro. On commercial spreads, a couple of general points first. I would say, Alvaro, actually, commercial lending margins, I would see them as fairly stable on a product-by-product basis. So that's how I'd think about it. There's obviously always a mix effect depending on where you write the business. But there's been no material deltas, changes over the recent past nor would we expect it going forward. So that's, I guess, one positioning piece. Secondly, in our commercial book, a significant proportion of customers are paying variable rates. So you will see that -- you will see kind of rates reprice in line with short-term rates and how that changes. So hopefully, those 2 points just contextualize what you'll be looking at in terms of the commercial lending book.

謝謝，Katie，也謝謝你，Alvaro。關於商業利差，我先講幾點一般性的看法。我會說，Alvaro，其實商業放款利差以單一產品來看是相當穩定的。我會用這種方式來思考。當然，視你承作業務的所在領域不同，會有組合效應。但近期並沒有重大的差異或變化，未來我們也不預期會有。因此這算是一個定位上的說明。第二，在我們的商業放款組合中，相當比例的客戶支付的是浮動利率。因此你會看到——你會看到利率會隨短期利率及其變動而重新定價。希望這兩點能為你在觀察商業放款組合時提供一些背景。

If you drop down into the individual businesses or asset classes within the commercial and institutional bank, there's different dynamics. Obviously, at the very small end, margins are much higher, but the total value of lending there is small relative to the overall commercial book. So whilst we're growing that business, and it's higher-margin business, from a weighted average perspective, the impacts are relatively limited. In the commercial mid-market, that's a competitive space across the field. But depending upon the asset class, the margins can vary quite a lot. So if it's social housing, lower margins, but very high risk-adjusted returns; commercial real estate, thinner margins, more of a commoditized product.

如果你再往下看商業與機構銀行內的個別業務或資產類別，動態會有所不同。顯然，在最小型的那一端，利差要高得多，但那裡的放款總量相對於整體商業放款組合而言較小。因此即使我們在成長那塊業務、而且它是高利差業務，從加權平均的角度來看，影響相對有限。在商業中型市場（mid-market），那是一個全市場競爭激烈的領域。但依資產類別不同，利差可能差異很大。例如社會住宅，利差較低，但風險調整後報酬非常高；商用不動產，利差較薄，更偏向商品化的產品。

And then at the large corporate side, obviously, you've got the kind of revolver aspect to that, but also where you've got kind of project financing and infrastructure finance, a bit of the same dynamics as my example on social housing. At a spread level, margins are relatively tight. But given the capital treatment, the risk-adjusted returns are very attractive. So they're all very good areas to deploy capital at good returns.

然後在大型企業端，顯然你有循環信貸（revolver）的那一塊，但也有專案融資與基礎建設融資，動態上有點類似我在社會住宅例子中提到的情況。在利差層面，利潤率相對偏緊。但考量到資本處理方式，風險調整後報酬非常具吸引力。所以這些都是以良好報酬部署資本的很好的領域。

So nothing major to call out, I'd say, on commercial spreads, but that hopefully gives you a bit of the contours of how that business works. Thanks, Alvaro.

所以我想在商業利差方面沒有什麼重大需要特別指出的，但希望這能讓你大致了解這項業務的運作輪廓。謝謝你，Alvaro。

Benjamin Toms, RBC.

Benjamin Toms，RBC。

Hey, Ben.

嗨，Ben。

Hey, Ben.

嗨，Ben。

Morning. Thank you guys for taking my question. The first one is on your income guidance, which you've upgraded to the top end of your previously provided range. Just wanted to kind of get some color, your thoughts on whether you'd characterize this guidance as being conservative. I'm just noting that consensus is kind of still quite a way above that guidance and whether you're comfortable with that gap?

早安。謝謝各位回答我的問題。第一個問題是關於你們的收入指引，你們已將其上調至先前提供區間的上緣。我想請你們補充一些看法：你們是否會將這個指引描述為偏保守？我注意到市場共識仍明顯高於該指引，你們對這個落差是否感到自在？

And then secondly, there's been some pretty fairly intense competition in the ISA -- cash ISA deposit market, and NatWest Group competing but one of your large peers is not. Can you just talk a little bit about how you weigh up collecting deposit volumes versus margins at a group level at the moment? Thank you very much.

第二，ISA——現金 ISA 存款市場的競爭相當激烈，NatWest Group 也在競爭，但你們的一家大型同業並沒有參與。你們能否談談目前在集團層面，如何權衡吸收存款量與利潤率之間的取捨？非常感謝。

Great. Thanks, Ben. I'll take the guidance and income, Katie, and then you can talk a little bit around Retail savings and ISAs. Okay. So yes, as you said, Ben, we've strengthened the income guidance. We're guiding to the top end of the range, of the GBP17.2 billion to GBP17.6 billion. We're doing that for a couple of reasons. One, you can see the momentum in quarter 1. So the underlying performance has been good, which is great.

很好。謝謝你，Ben。我來回答指引與收入的部分，Katie，接著你可以談談零售儲蓄與 ISA。好的。是的，如你所說，Ben，我們強化了收入指引。我們指引落在先前區間的上緣，也就是 172 億英鎊到 176 億英鎊。我們這麼做有幾個原因。第一，你可以看到第一季的動能，因此基本面表現良好，這很棒。

And then you've got the kind of net effect of the change in economics. Obviously, we've changed our rate assumptions. You've seen that from two cuts. Assumed two cuts now to 0. But we've also assumed -- you have to follow the logic through. You would assume if you have -- if you don't have rate reductions, it would be reasonable to expect some small softening in demand. So we've assumed that. But net-net, we see that as positive to income. So that's kind of how we're positioning at the top end.

第二是經濟環境變化的淨影響。顯然，我們調整了利率假設。你已經看到我們從原先假設兩次降息，改為現在假設降息次數從 2 次變成 0 次。但我們也同時——你必須把邏輯推演下去——如果沒有降息，合理來說需求可能會有些微轉弱，因此我們也納入了這個假設。不過整體而言，我們認為對收入是正面的。所以這就是我們把指引定位在上緣的方式。

We haven't changed the guidance for RoTE. We're maintaining the greater than 17% there, but we're increasingly confident on that. As I said in February, and I'll say again, it's always a greater -- that's always been a greater than guidance, and we always aim to beat our target. So we haven't changed that, but we're increasingly confident because obviously, the conditions for that are supportive. I should point out, I think, it's obvious, but that all excludes Evelyn.

我們沒有調整 RoTE 的指引，仍維持在高於 17%，但我們對達成更有信心。正如我在二月說過、我也再說一次，這一直都是「高於」的指引，我們一向以超越目標為目標。所以我們沒有改，但信心提高，因為顯然相關條件是有利的。我想也需要指出，這些都不包含 Evelyn。

But net-net, Ben, I would say it's a good start. We're confident around '26, hence, the nudge up in guidance. We haven't changed '28. But obviously, you can see from the trends that it's -- the conditions are supportive towards the medium term as well.

但總體來說，Ben，我會說這是個好的開始。我們對 2026 年很有信心，因此才小幅上調指引。我們沒有改 2028 年的目標。但顯然，從趨勢你也看得出來，中期的環境條件同樣是支持性的。

Thanks very much. Ben, so I guess if I look at our ISAs and the kind of recent activity, I think the first thing I would really say is we see really strong relationship value in our fixed term deposits. We have high retention rates, greater than 80%, and some of those are retained in the higher-margin instant-access products as well as us also having an opportunity in the future to engage with these customers on investment products, and we've seen good growth there as well this quarter with a lot of new investors coming in, but we also expect that ambition to kind of grow and that's supported by the acquisition of Evelyn Partners, obviously, in this last quarter.

非常感謝。Ben，若我看我們的 ISA 以及近期的活動，我首先想說的是：我們在定期存款上看到非常強的關係價值。我們的留存率很高，超過 80%，其中一部分也會留在利潤率更高的即時存取產品上；同時，未來我們也有機會與這些客戶互動、推廣投資產品。本季我們也看到那邊有良好成長，有許多新投資人加入；而且我們也預期這個企圖心會持續成長，這也受到我們在上一季收購 Evelyn Partners 的支持。

During Q1, with the volatility that we saw in the swap markets, we actively managed our hedging across both our assets and liabilities, which enabled us to really price effectively on the fixed rate deposits. Overall, you can see our deposit mix has been stable, both at the group level and in Retail. When I look at fixed rate ISA specifically, the balances are small in the context of the group, low single-digit percentages of deposits. And in terms of overall deposit dynamics and margins, really very happy with the progress, particularly around things like current account growth, and we expect to see ongoing group deposit margin expansion in the coming quarters. So overall, a real comment on balance across the portfolio. Thanks.

在第一季，隨著我們在交換利率市場看到的波動，我們在資產與負債兩端都主動管理避險，這使我們能夠在定期存款的固定利率定價上更有效率。整體而言，你可以看到我們的存款組合在集團層面與零售端都維持穩定。若我特別看固定利率 ISA，其餘額在集團脈絡下很小，只占存款的低個位數百分比。就整體存款動態與利潤率而言，我們對進展非常滿意，尤其是像活期帳戶成長這類項目；我們也預期未來幾季集團存款利潤率將持續擴張。總體而言，這是對整體投資組合平衡的一個評論。謝謝。

Thank you. Yeah. Well, I'd add one small thing on that, actually, Ben, because I've got the pricing tables in front of me. It's quite interesting when you look through. And as Katie said, we've been very thoughtful about how we manage the volatility in swap rates and how we play that back into pricing to maintain margins. And you can see you've got three or four of the larger banks ahead of us on pricing. But as Katie alluded to, the volumes have been encouraging. So I think we've been very thoughtful in how we're playing in that market.Thanks. Thanks.

謝謝。是的。Ben，我其實想再補充一點，因為我手上有定價表。你仔細看會很有意思。正如 Katie 所說，我們在如何管理交換利率波動、以及如何把它反映回定價以維持利潤率方面，一直非常審慎。你可以看到，有三到四家較大的銀行在定價上比我們更高。但如 Katie 所提到的，量的表現令人鼓舞。所以我認為我們在參與這個市場的方式上非常周全。謝謝。謝謝。

Guy Stebbings, BNP Paribas.

Guy Stebbings，BNP Paribas。

Hey, Guy.

嗨，Guy。

Hi, good morning there. Thanks for the question. I think, I just have one sort of broad question on the income guidance for this year and the assumptions sort of underpinning it. It's clear in terms of what you're doing on policy rate. But in terms of the long end of the curve, when you're thinking about the hedge reinvestment, could you confirm what the assumption is there?

嗨，早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想我只有一個比較宏觀的問題，關於今年的收入指引以及支撐它的假設。就政策利率而言你們的作法很清楚。但就殖利率曲線長端而言，當你們在考慮避險再投資時，能否確認你們在那裡的假設是什麼？

Then in terms of volumes, I'm just trying to work out whether you're assuming slightly more sort of conservative macroeconomic assumptions as per the ECL models, but that would be going against sort of the positive comments you're saying in terms of what you're actually seeing on lending volumes, et cetera. So can you clarify what sort of expectations are on volumes?

另外在量的方面，我想弄清楚你們是否採用了稍微更保守的總體經濟假設（如 ECL 模型所用），但這似乎又與你們對實際看到的放款量等所做的正面評論相反。你們能否釐清對量的預期是什麼？

And then on mortgage spreads, just in light of the comment you made there, I'm just trying to understand whether anything has changed. So you've talked about the stock of the back book trending down towards 60. I presume that's kind of entirely consistent with what you were expecting a few months back. And actually, your comment on April being above the back book is slightly encouraging. So could you just confirm if those mortgage spread trends are sort of in line, better or worse than what you were thinking a month or 2 ago? Thanks.

最後關於房貸利差，考量你剛才的評論，我想了解是否有任何變化。你們談到存量的舊貸組合（back book）趨勢往 60 下降。我推測這完全符合你們幾個月前的預期。而且你們提到四月高於舊貸組合，這稍微令人鼓舞。所以你們能否確認，這些房貸利差趨勢與你們一兩個月前的想法相比，是符合、較好或較差？謝謝。

Great. Thanks, Guy. Very clear. Katie, you got any preference on order? We've got hedge, volume...

很好。謝謝你，Guy。非常清楚。Katie，你對回答順序有偏好嗎？我們有避險、量……

I'll start off with spreads and hedge and then why don't you come back in on volume? Yeah.

我先從利差和避險開始，然後你再回來補充量的部分，好嗎？

Yeah.

好。

Perfect. Thanks so much. If I look at the hedge, first of all, a few things just to kind of share with you on that. So first of all, when we talked about the hedge at the year-end, we said that we would increase our structural hedge this year above GBP200 billion as -- and then you've seen it, as deposit balances have grown and equity base will increase given the business growth.

太好了。非常感謝。先看避險的部分，我想先跟你分享幾點。首先，在年末我們談到避險時，我們說今年會把結構性避險提高到 2,000 億英鎊以上——而你也已經看到，隨著存款餘額成長，以及因業務成長使股權基礎增加。

What we did earlier in Q1 was as we saw those yield curves move really sharply higher in the quarter, we did take a decision to accelerate the increase of our product hedge. So we added about GBP5 billion additional in Q1. So that means that we've locked in income for the outer years and, of course, modestly reduced our rate sensitivity as a result of that.

我們在第一季較早的時候，當看到殖利率曲線在該季大幅上移時，我們決定加速提高產品避險。因此我們在第一季額外增加了約 50 億英鎊。這表示我們已為較遠年度鎖定了收入，當然也因此小幅降低了我們的利率敏感度。

When I look at the kind of first three months of the year overall, we're reinvesting our product hedge at about 3.8%. That's against guidance I've given you at the year-end of 3.5%. I would now expect that reinvestment rate on average for the whole year and given what we've seen also in April to be around 3.9% on the product hedge and 4.7% on the equity hedge, which is up from 4.5% as we go through there. So as I look at those kind of current assumptions of rates, the growth that we've seen, I do continue to expect total hedge income will grow annually through to 2030 as you see the improved levels that we spoke about in February.

當我整體回顧今年前三個月的情況時，我們以約 3.8% 的水準再投資我們的產品避險。這相較於我在年末給各位的指引 3.5%。基於我們在 4 月也看到的情況，我現在預期全年平均的再投資利率，產品避險約為 3.9%，股權避險約為 4.7%，較先前的 4.5% 上升。就目前這些利率假設與我們看到的成長而言，我仍預期總避險收入將逐年成長直到 2030 年，正如各位在 2 月我們談到的改善水準所見。

If I then look to your mortgage spreads, you've got it completely right. Mortgage margin is very much in line with our expectations. They are currently a little bit better. I would encourage you not to bank that forever, but we're very happy with how the team are managing the book at the moment. We can see the reduction in book margins absolutely being driven by refinancing.

如果我再看你提到的房貸利差，你完全說對了。房貸利潤率非常符合我們的預期，目前還略好一些。我會建議你不要把這當作永遠都會如此，但我們對團隊目前管理這個資產組合的方式非常滿意。我們看到資產組合利潤率的下降，確實是由再融資所驅動。

If you think a little bit of our mix, 30% of the book will reprice this year and the roll-off is a little over 90 basis points on a blended basis. So that really drives the stock margin lower over the course of the year, completely in line with our expectations and very much in line with the income guidance that we've given you throughout this year and upgrading this morning.

如果你稍微想一下我們的組合結構，今年約有 30% 的資產組合會重新定價，而到期滾落在加權後的綜合基礎上略高於 90 個基點。因此，這確實會在一年當中推動存量利潤率走低，完全符合我們的預期，也非常符合我們今年以來一直給各位的收入指引，以及今天早上上調後的指引。

On volumes, Guy, so this -- as you say, this kind of tried to thread the needle a little bit between, I guess, the logic of the kind of mechanistic logic of the economic assumptions versus activity year-to-date and pipelines. And I think that's what we're trying to balance. If you take the logic of the economic assumptions through, i.e., higher for longer, slight tick up in unemployment and slower growth, then the logic of that would be, you would see some softening in, for example, the mortgage market vis-a-vis our original predictions and likewise, some softening in business lending. So that's what the economic assumptions drive.

在量的部分，Guy，如你所說，我們某種程度上是在兩者之間取得平衡：一方面是經濟假設的機械式邏輯，另一方面是年初至今的活動與管線。我想這就是我們試圖平衡的地方。若沿著經濟假設的邏輯推演，也就是「高利率維持更久」、失業率小幅上升以及成長放緩，那麼其邏輯會是：例如相較於我們原先的預測，你會看到房貸市場略為轉弱，同樣地，企業放款也會略為轉弱。這就是經濟假設所驅動的結果。

Then when you look at the activity, as you rightly point out, what we've said is quarter 1 has been very strong on the kind of lending side. The pipelines in the respective businesses look strong. So the activity is there. I guess what we're trying to do is strike the right balance between optimism on that side, but also, I guess, the reality of how the economics play out over the course of the next nine months might impact demand. And we factored that into how we've guided toward the changed guidance to the top end of the range. So hopefully, that just unpacks a little bit how we're thinking about it.

接著再看活動面，如你正確指出的，我們說過第一季在放款端非常強勁，各業務的管線看起來也很強，因此活動確實存在。我想我們試圖做的是在這一端的樂觀與另一端的現實之間取得適當平衡：也就是未來九個月經濟如何演變可能會影響需求。我們已把這點納入考量，並據此將指引調整至區間上緣。希望這能稍微說明我們的思考方式。

Jonathan Pierce, Jefferies.

Jonathan Pierce，Jefferies。

Hey, Jonathan.

嗨，Jonathan。

Hello. You all right? Yes. Good. I've got two questions, please. The first, the other C&I noninterest income, it's been running at about GBP230 million to GBP240 million a quarter for the last 6 quarters, dropped down to GBP170 million in the first quarter. It does feel like there was a bit of a one-off in there. I don't know if you can quantify how big that was and whether you've seen anything else coming through since the end of March?

你好。你們還好嗎？是的。很好。我有兩個問題。第一個，其他 C&I 非利息收入，過去 6 個季度每季大約在 2.30 億到 2.40 億英鎊之間，但第一季降到 1.70 億英鎊。感覺裡面有一些一次性因素。我不確定你們能否量化那有多大，以及自 3 月底以來是否還看到其他因素出現？

Secondly, more broadly on this impairment sensitivity, just trying to get a feel as to how much confidence you have of -- I've asked you this before, Katie, actually, in the IFRS 9 ECL models. I mean you're telling us today that the weighted average assumption for GDP growth is about 0.3%, 0.4% a year next couple of years. The downside is minus 0.4% this year and minus 1.6% next year. It's also got unemployment going up to 6.2% next year, I think.

第二個，更廣泛地談到減損敏感度，我想了解你們對 IFRS 9 ECL 模型的信心有多高——其實我以前也問過你，Katie。你們今天告訴我們，未來幾年 GDP 成長的加權平均假設約為每年 0.3%、0.4%。下行情境是今年 -0.4%、明年 -1.6%。另外失業率明年會升到 6.2%（我記得是這樣）。

But you're telling us your ECL in that scenario would only increase by about GBP99 million. Now I get that that's a general provision measure. But by definition, the ECL on those Stage 1 and 2 is reflective of losses you expect in the future on the performing book. So are you genuinely confident? And if so, why more qualitatively in this idea that even if we saw a recession, even if we saw unemployment moving into the 6s, your impairment charge ex any initial ECL build would not move up very significantly at all? Thanks a lot.

但你們又告訴我們，在那個情境下你們的 ECL 只會增加約 9,900 萬英鎊。我理解那是一般性備抵的衡量方式。但按定義，第一階段與第二階段的 ECL 反映的是你們對表現良好資產組合未來預期損失的估計。所以你們真的有信心嗎？如果是，能否更定性地說明：即使我們看到衰退、即使失業率升到 6% 多，你們的減損費用（不含任何初始 ECL 增提）也不會顯著上升的原因？非常感謝。

Good. Thanks, Jonathan. I'll take the first one. Katie, you can take the second one.

好的，謝謝，Jonathan。第一個我來回答。第二個 Katie 你來回答。

Sure.

好的。

So yeah, Jonathan, your characterization is right. So actually pretty stable income line in the last 6 quarters, dropped off -- the C&I noninterest income dropped off in quarter 1 '26. If you look at that compared to '25, it's, I think, GBP20 million versus GBP64 million. Not exclusively, but almost exclusively, it's explained by sterling rates, as you say, so kind of one-off. You've seen that across lots of desks and lots of banks. So we have a relatively small rates business. It's obviously -- it's indexed to sterling, given what we are as NatWest. So that really explains the delta that you're seeing there. And you'll see yes, GBP64 million in quarter 1 '25 and GBP20 million in quarter 1 '26. That's a big part of the difference versus the previous quarters.

所以是的，Jonathan，你的描述是對的。過去 6 個季度這條收入線其實相當穩定，但 C&I 非利息收入在 2026 年第一季下滑。如果你把它跟 2025 年相比，我記得是 2,000 萬英鎊對 6,400 萬英鎊。雖然不是完全，但幾乎完全可以用英鎊利率來解釋，正如你所說，算是一次性因素。你在很多交易台、很多銀行都看到這種情況。我們的利率業務相對較小，而且很明顯——以 NatWest 的性質而言——它是以英鎊為指標。因此這就解釋了你看到的差異。你會看到 2025 年第一季是 6,400 萬英鎊，而 2026 年第一季是 2,000 萬英鎊。這是相較於前幾季差異的一大部分。

A couple of things I'd say, it's obviously very small in the context of the overall revenue line. And also given the more subdued volatility, we'd expect improvements as we go through quarter 2 onwards, not just in that line, but overall on C&I noninterest income. So I think you're seeing it and reading it pretty accurately there.

我想補充兩點：第一，放在整體營收線的脈絡下，這其實非常小。第二，鑑於波動性較為溫和，我們預期從第二季起會有所改善，不僅是這一條線，整體 C&I 非利息收入也會改善。所以我認為你對這件事的觀察與解讀相當準確。

Okay, Katie?

好的，Katie？

Sure. On impairments, thanks, Jonathan. But as I look at it, I mean, these are models that we test extensively. They go through both our own verification and independent verification, and they're also kind of reviewed very closely by kind of external parties. So I am comfortable in them. And I think that the thing that I do like with IFRS 9 is this concept, which is in and around the kind of PMA.

好的。關於減損，謝謝你，Jonathan。就我來看，這些模型我們做了大量測試，會經過我們內部驗證與獨立驗證，也會由外部單位非常仔細地審視。所以我對它們是有信心的。我認為 IFRS 9 有一個我很喜歡的概念，就是與 PMA 相關的這個概念。

So that kind of enables me where there are moments of discomfort. And you can see that we sometimes have them when you can see in different classifications, it's wider than just the kind of the sort of economic uncertainty. So when you see other numbers in there, you can go actually, that's a bit of the model they're kind of working on. So completely comfortable on the models is what I would say first.

因此，當出現一些讓人不安的時刻時，它能讓我有所依據。你也會看到我們有時確實會遇到這種情況，因為在不同分類中，你會看到不僅僅是經濟不確定性，還有更廣泛的因素。當你看到裡面有其他數字時，你可以說：其實那是模型在運作的一部分。所以我首先要說的是，我對這些模型完全有信心。

And you're right, if I look to the ECL on kind of Stage 1 and 2, if I went 100% kind of to the downside, it suggests an extra GBP99 million. But I would remind you that Stage 1 and Stage 2, so there would be some Stage 3 losses. They are impossible for us to quantify as to what they would be. So we don't seek to attempt that. So I would probably suggest to you that the actual charge could be a bit higher if that was the case.

你說得對，如果我看第一階段與第二階段的 ECL，若我 100% 採用下行情境，顯示會額外增加 9,900 萬英鎊。但我要提醒你，第一階段與第二階段之外，還會有一些第三階段的損失；我們無法量化它們會是多少，因此我們不嘗試去估計。所以我可能會建議你：若真是那種情況，實際的費用可能會略高一些。

Obviously, that's not our base case just now. In terms of what we're looking at. We -- at this stage, we are happy with the base case. We're happy with the guidance that we've done. We've obviously added a bit on the mezz, 110 net, a little bit out of PMA. That's just kind of mechanics of the calculation, which has taken us to the 26 basis point charge this quarter. But if I take out that mezz, we've overlaid, it's kind of 16 basis points. So what we can see is a good, well-diversified, well-performing book to date.

當然，那並不是我們目前的基本情境。就我們正在觀察的情況而言——在這個階段，我們對基本情境感到滿意，也對我們給出的指引感到滿意。我們顯然在 mezz 上加了一點，淨額 110，並從 PMA 釋出了一點。那只是計算機制所致，使得本季費用率來到 26 個基點。但如果我把我們加上的 mezz 拿掉，大約是 16 個基點。因此我們看到的是：截至目前，一個良好、分散度高且表現良好的資產組合。

We've given you a good estimate if we were to move. But at the moment, obviously, we're comfortable and happy to have that little bit of extra buffer as we enter a little bit of greater uncertainty than we've seen recently. So comfortable at this stage, Jonathan. Thank you.

如果我們要搬遷，我們已經給了你一個不錯的估算。但就目前而言，很明顯，我們感到安心且也很樂於在我們進入一段比近期所見更不確定的時期時，保有那一點額外的緩衝。因此在這個階段我們很安心，Jonathan。謝謝。

Thanks, Katie.

謝謝，Katie。

Benjamin Caven-Roberts, Goldman Sachs.

Benjamin Caven-Roberts，高盛。

Hey, Ben.

嗨，Ben。

Hey, Ben.

嗨，Ben。

Morning. Thanks very much for the presentation and for taking the questions. Just two for me, please. First, a follow-up on the cost of risk. I see you mentioned about 60% of mortgage balances now with customer rates above 4%. How are you thinking about the refinancing profile for that remaining portion and the extent to which those customers are moving on to rates a fair bit higher than what they had expected when entering those mortgages? I know you do stress rate assumptions as well when issuing the mortgage originally, but clearly, a lot of volatility in swaps and rate expectations right now. So just keen to hear your thoughts on that.

早安。非常感謝簡報並回答問題。我有兩個問題。第一個是關於風險成本的追問。我看到你提到目前約 60% 的房貸餘額，其客戶利率已高於 4%。你們如何看待剩餘那部分的再融資輪廓，以及這些客戶轉到比他們在承作房貸時所預期更高的利率的程度？我知道你們在最初核發房貸時也會採用壓力利率假設，但目前掉期與利率預期的波動顯然很大。所以想聽聽你們對此的看法。

And then secondly, thanks a lot for the extra disclosure on the financial institutions. If we look at that business and private credit altogether, how are you thinking about the growth of that book? Is it something you expect to grow more quickly or more slowly relative to the recent past? And have you changed your strategy at all in terms of the underwriting there? Thank you.

第二，謝謝你們對金融機構業務提供更多揭露。如果把該業務與私募信貸合併來看，你們如何看待這本帳的成長？相較於近期過去，你們預期它會成長得更快還是更慢？另外，你們在那邊的承作／授信審核策略是否有任何改變？謝謝。

Great. Thank you, Ben. Katie, you go for first question.

很好。謝謝你，Ben。Katie，你先回答第一個問題。

Yes. In terms of cost of risk, Ben, so you're absolutely right. There's -- and you've obviously -- you've got far in the pack this morning. So Slide 32 kind of lays it out really nicely.

好的。就風險成本而言，Ben，你說得完全正確。這裡——而且你顯然——你今天早上已經翻到很後面了。所以第 32 頁投影片把它講得很清楚。

So I guess a couple of things I would talk about as we look at our prime mortgage book. So obviously, the level of security gives us a lot of comfort. Our sort of greater than 3-month arrears are below the sector average and quite significantly so. So it's well underwritten. And I guess the guide on the financing of the remaining 40% that aren't on customer rates over 4%, we do kind of use what's happened in the last couple of years to kind of help guide us on that.

我想在看我們的優質房貸組合時，有幾點可以談。首先，擔保品水準讓我們很安心。我們逾期超過 3 個月的比率低於同業平均，而且低得相當明顯，所以承作品質良好。至於剩下那 40% 尚未落在客戶利率高於 4% 的部分之再融資指引，我們確實會參考過去幾年的實際發生情況來作為判斷依據。

So what you've seen in that time, obviously, there has been wage growth across the different areas. People who are coming up are very aware that they're coming up. They are -- what we see has been really interesting over the last couple of months is our kind of a greater increase on the use of the 2-year versus the one year. If you look at our -- sorry, versus the five-year, forgive me, if we look at our kind of 5-year fixed as a percentage of our fixed book, it's about 66% five-year. But actually, if I look just at what's even been happening in the last little while, that's kind of flipped almost completely to that we're writing about 77% 2-year at the moment.

在那段期間你看到的情況是，顯然各領域都有薪資成長。即將到期需要轉貸的人也很清楚自己快到期了。過去幾個月我們觀察到一個很有意思的現象：相較於五年期（抱歉，我是說相較於五年期固定），兩年期的使用增加得更多。如果看我們固定利率組合中五年期固定的占比，大約是 66%。但如果只看最近一段時間的情況，幾乎完全反轉——我們目前新承作大約 77% 是兩年期。

So customers, they understand what they're doing. They are understanding what they need to do in terms of managing their exposure. We do see them looking to lock in refinancing early so that they can get the benefit of the rate, and they've certainly been preparing for this. And as we talk to them as they go through those transitions. Obviously, it's a big change when you go from your COVID rate to the new rate, but it's something people have definitely been looking for, and we've seen them managing it really, really quite well, I would say.

所以客戶是理解自己在做什麼的。他們也理解在管理自身曝險方面需要做什麼。我們確實看到他們傾向提早鎖定再融資，以便享有當下的利率，而且他們也一直在為此做準備。當我們在他們轉換期間與他們溝通時，從疫情期間的利率轉到新的利率當然是很大的變化，但這是大家早就預期會發生的事；而且我會說，我們看到他們的管理做得非常、非常好。

And Paul, on your credit.

Paul，關於你的信貸問題。

Yes, yes. So Ben, so yes, so I'm glad you liked and have seen the new disclosure. We hope that's helpful to everybody.

是的，是的。Ben，很高興你喜歡並且也看到了新的揭露。我們希望這對大家都有幫助。

In terms of the kind of outlook for the -- obviously, it's a very broad business when you look at the breakdown there. But in terms of the areas that you referenced, we have been growing the business, I guess, over a number of years, but it's been in a very disciplined way.

就該業務的展望而言——顯然，從你看到的拆分來看這是一個非常廣泛的業務。但就你提到的那些領域，我們在過去幾年確實一直在成長，不過是以非常嚴謹自律的方式在成長。

If you look at limits there, they haven't really moved since this time last year, so quarter 2 '25. Likewise, we haven't materially changed our risk appetite. We're always very focused on being senior lender, good protection from first loss, making sure that the risk-adjusted returns are supported. So our strategy really has been not around growing limits, but prioritizing risk-adjusted returns versus volume-driven growth. As you know, we haven't been involved in any of the recent public names.

如果看那裡的額度，自去年同期，也就是 2025 年第二季以來，其實沒有太大變動。同樣地，我們也沒有實質改變風險偏好。我們一向非常專注於作為優先順位放款人、取得良好的第一損失保護，並確保風險調整後報酬獲得支持。因此我們的策略其實不是擴大額度，而是優先追求風險調整後報酬，而非以量驅動的成長。如你所知，我們沒有參與近期任何公開市場的那些名稱。

Looking forward, what I would expect actually is to see some of the spreads to widen, so i.e., the same business, the same risk, but actually better risk-adjusted returns. That would be my assumption because as you know, a lot of that business is relatively short term in nature, so you get to reprice. So that's how we're seeing. Hopefully, that gives you a sense of it in terms of limits, but also, I guess, business strategy, which is returns led rather than volume-led. Thanks.

展望未來，我的預期其實是利差可能會擴大，也就是同樣的業務、同樣的風險，但風險調整後報酬更好。這是我的假設，因為如你所知，這類業務很多本質上是相對短期的，所以可以重新訂價。這就是我們的看法。希望這能讓你對額度以及（我想）業務策略有個概念：以報酬為導向，而不是以規模為導向。謝謝。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Chris Cant, Autonomous.

Chris Cant，Autonomous。

Are you there, Chris?

Chris，你在線上嗎？

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions Two, please. On corporate banking, commercial banking, in the context of what we've got going on in the Middle East, are there any areas of your book that you'd be more nervous on, please? And I'm not thinking specifically just about oil price as an input here. I guess there is the potential for product shortages or oil-related product shortages regardless of price if this persists. So are there any sectors that you're nervous on when you're speaking to your corporate customers, what are they worried about?

早安。謝謝讓我提問。我有兩個問題。第一個關於企業銀行與商業銀行：在目前中東局勢的背景下，你們的放款組合中是否有任何領域會讓你們更緊張？我不是只把油價當作唯一的輸入因素來看。我想如果情勢持續，即使價格不變，也可能出現產品短缺或與石油相關產品的短缺。所以你們在與企業客戶對談時，有哪些產業是你們比較擔心的？他們又在擔心什麼？

And on the comment around refi of the mortgage book, my understanding there is that customers essentially have sort of a bit of a free option to lock in, but then change products if rates shift after they've preemptively locked in. Are there any risks to you and to kind of NII later in the year given swap volatility. Just conscious, I guess, the value of that option being given to customers is arguably higher right now. So any comments on how you manage that, how we should think about that would be appreciated. Thank you.

第二個是關於房貸組合再融資的評論：我的理解是，客戶基本上有點像是有一個免費選擇權可以先鎖定，但如果在他們預先鎖定之後利率又變動，他們仍可更換產品。鑑於掉期波動，這是否會在今年稍晚對你們以及淨利息收入（NII）帶來任何風險？我想現在給客戶的那個選擇權價值可能更高。所以若能評論你們如何管理、以及我們應如何看待，將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thanks, Chris. I'll take the first. Katie, you take the second. On the -- I guess, the kind of core mid-market commercial bank, Chris, obviously, we're staying very close to all the various sectors and also the different regions there. It's very consciously a very diversified book. We gave you quite a lot of breakdowns on the relative sectors and segments.

謝謝，Chris。第一個我來回答。Katie，你回答第二個。就——我想，核心的中型市場商業銀行這塊，Chris，很明顯我們會非常密切關注各個產業以及不同地區。這本來就是一個非常刻意高度分散的組合。我們也提供了相當多關於各產業與各分項的占比拆分。

In terms of -- to your specifics around sectors or subsectors that might see greater impacts. Probably similar to some of the previous kind of challenges, I would say, sectors like agriculture, aspects of hospitality and leisure. So where you see some of the -- not just what you call pure energy input prices, but you have fuel, fertilizer, food, et cetera, where you see exposure there would be areas that we are -- we will pay more attention to. And as we've done in the past, we work closely with those sectors if support packages are needed. We're not at that stage yet, and we're seeing no deterioration.

就你具體提到可能受到較大影響的產業或次產業而言，我會說可能與先前一些挑戰類似，例如農業、以及餐旅與休閒的某些部分。也就是你看到的不只是所謂純粹的能源投入價格，還包括燃料、肥料、食品等等；在這些曝險較高的地方，我們會——我們會投入更多關注。也如同過去一樣，如果需要支援方案，我們會與這些產業密切合作。我們目前還沒到那個階段，而且我們沒有看到任何惡化。

I think generally, what I'd say, if you think back through what we're seeing in the Middle East, what we saw through the tariff period, a similar time last year through Ukraine and even through the pandemic, customers are -- I'd say business customers are a lot more adaptable and resilient than maybe they were prior to the pandemic. Their ability to change their cost base and/or pass on costs, the kind of the way in which they've engineered their business models over time have given them more flexibility.

我想整體而言我會說，如果你回顧我們在中東看到的情況、在關稅期間看到的情況、去年同期在烏克蘭的情況，甚至在疫情期間的情況，客戶——我會說企業客戶——比起疫情前可能更具適應力與韌性。他們調整成本結構和／或轉嫁成本的能力，以及他們隨時間對商業模式所做的設計與改造，都讓他們更有彈性。

So what we see is a faster response, but also greater adaptability, which ironically, I think is down to the fact that a lot of these businesses and sectors have had to face a lot over the course of the last four or five years. So that's how we see it. But there are probably two sectors that are kind of on our minds. Katie?

所以我們看到的是更快的反應速度，同時也有更強的適應力；諷刺的是，我認為這其實是因為在過去四、五年間，許多這些企業與產業不得不面對很多挑戰。所以我們是這樣看的。不過，可能有兩個產業是我們特別放在心上的。Katie？

Sure. Thanks very much. And then your great question, Chris, we've kind of watched this happen historically, we've seen other peaks. But look, it's something that we manage incredibly tightly on this. We've got very sophisticated modeling that we have in play. We based on it looking very much at the kind of individual kind of customer behavior, looking at what happened in other periods of interest rate volatility, who would move, who would kind of stick.

當然。非常感謝。Chris，你這個問題問得很好；我們也一直在歷史上觀察到這種情況，我們看過其他高峰。但你看，這是我們管理得非常嚴密的一件事。我們有非常精密的模型在運作，會非常著重於個別客戶行為，並回顧在其他利率波動期間發生了什麼、哪些人會轉移、哪些人會留下。

You heard me mention earlier today as well that what we've done and the investment that we've done within our mortgage system has allowed us to kind of be able to react really, really quickly. I mentioned that we repriced 11 times over the course of 22 days during March. I mean that is a significant change from where we were a number of years ago. So very comfortable with the dynamic overall.

你也聽到我今天稍早提到，我們在房貸系統上的投入與投資，讓我們能夠非常、非常快速地反應。我提到過，我們在3月的22天內調價了11次。我的意思是，這相較於幾年前的狀況，是一個非常顯著的改變。所以對整體的動態我們非常有信心。

What I would kind of add is that we do see that most people who do refinance with us do ultimately kind of stick with us as well. So there's that good kind of customer engagement, which is just -- is really, really critical. We're also kind of largely locked in already for our forthcoming roll-offs.

我想補充的是，我們確實看到，大多數在我們這裡再融資的客戶，最終也會繼續留在我們這裡。所以客戶黏著度與互動良好，而這點——非常、非常關鍵。我們對於即將到期的到期滾降（roll-offs）也在很大程度上已經鎖定了。

But I would say all of these things are embedded in the guidance that I've talked about today about the book actively kind of repricing to 60 bps over the course of the year. And so while we manage it actively, but I don't see it will be something that would change what I've said to you this morning already on that number. Thank you very much, Chris.

但我會說，所有這些因素都已經反映在我今天談到的指引之中，也就是我們會在一年內主動將資產組合重新定價約60個基點。因此我們會積極管理，但我不認為這會改變我今天早上已經跟你說過的那個數字。非常感謝你，Chris。

Thanks, Katie.

謝謝，Katie。

Sheel Shah, JPMorgan.

Sheel Shah，摩根大通。

Hi, Sheel.

嗨，Sheel。

Hi, guys. First question on corporate deposits, please, because this is a line item that has remained under GBP200 billion or so for the last two years, and we're finally seeing a lot of growth come through the business. And not only the growth, but also the rates that you're paying on these corporate deposits, looking at your other disclosure looks to be declining as well. So I'd be interested to get some insight as to what's happening there?

嗨，各位。第一個問題想請教公司存款，因為這個科目在過去兩年一直維持在約2,000億英鎊以下，而我們終於看到業務出現很大的成長。不僅是成長，你們在這些公司存款上支付的利率，從你們其他揭露來看似乎也在下降。所以我想了解一下那邊發生了什麼？

And then secondly, on the cost base, I know the first quarter had some increased investment in restructuring costs, but you also mentioned on the call earlier that the cost profile will be uneven through the year. So just wondering how you're thinking about that across the remainder of the quarters? Thanks.

第二個問題是關於成本基礎。我知道第一季因重整成本的投資而有所增加，但你們在稍早的電話會議也提到，今年的成本走勢會不均勻。所以想請問你們如何看待接下來各季的情況？謝謝。

Thanks, Sheel. I'll take deposits. Katie, cost, yes? So I'm pleased you've noticed the trajectory there, Sheel. Deposits in the commercial bank is a big area of strategic focus for the team and has been, I would say, increasingly over the course of the last 18 months. So part of the performance momentum there is around focus.

謝謝你，Sheel。我來回答存款的部分。Katie，成本部分你來，好嗎？所以我很高興你注意到那個趨勢，Sheel。商業銀行的存款是團隊的重大策略重點，而且我會說，在過去18個月裡這個重點愈來愈強。因此那邊的動能表現，有一部分來自於聚焦。

Given also the growth we've seen in lending, there's been a natural need to increase deposits in the commercial bank. So focus has played a part. But we've also broadened the product range. We've also digitized parts of the product range as well. So we've got business focus. We've got enhanced proposition for different segments within the commercial and corporate bank.

同時，鑑於我們在放款上看到的成長，商業銀行自然也需要增加存款，所以聚焦確實扮演了角色。但我們也擴大了產品範圍，並且把部分產品範圍數位化。因此我們有業務面的聚焦，也有針對商業與企業銀行內不同客群分層的更強產品主張。

And as you'd expect us to have, we also have a much broader focus on transaction banking, which obviously brings high-value operational deposits. And to your point, depending on the nature of those deposits, high liquidity value, but also in relative terms versus interest-bearing deposits, good cost of funding. So it's a strategic focus supported by a number of operational and tactical activities that support our client base but also help the LDR.

而且如你所預期，我們也更廣泛地聚焦於交易銀行業務，這顯然能帶來高價值的營運性存款。就你提到的點而言，視存款性質而定，這些存款具有高流動性價值；同時相較於計息存款，在資金成本上也更具優勢。因此這是一個策略重點，並由多項營運與戰術性活動支撐：既支持我們的客戶基礎，也有助於存放比（LDR）。

Katie?

Katie？

Costs, sure, absolutely. So you're absolutely right. Q1 is a little bit higher than normal, reflecting some of our decisions to front-load investments and restructuring costs alongside staff and inflation-related increases from 2025. But you'd expect me to say this, it's our history. It's what we deliver every single year. We are really confident in hitting our cost guidance of around GBP8.2 billion. That excludes the impact of Evelyn. I'm just going to take the opportunity just to talk a little bit about Evelyn costs. We'll share more about that as well when we kind of -- once we've kind of finished the acquisition and things like that, which is going well.

成本部分，當然，沒問題。你說得完全正確。第一季確實比平常高一些，反映了我們決定將投資與重整成本前置，同時也反映自2025年起的人員與通膨相關的增加。但你也會預期我會這麼說——這是我們的歷史，也是我們每一年都能交付的成果。我們非常有信心達成約82億英鎊的成本指引。這不包含Evelyn的影響。我也想藉此機會稍微談一下Evelyn的成本。我們也會在——一旦完成收購等事項後——分享更多細節；目前進展良好。

But there are a few things that you need to be thinking about that will impact some of those Evelyn costs as they come through. Obviously, first, we've got day one transaction costs. That was included in our guidance of the 130 basis points of capital. We've obviously got the operating costs that will come through from the point of consolidation in terms of Evelyn's own costs. We're then familiar, we talked a lot about the cost to achieve in terms of the GBP150 million total cost to achieve to drive the GBP100 million of cost synergies.

但有幾件事你需要納入考量，因為它們會影響Evelyn的部分成本在後續反映出來。首先，會有交割日（day one）的交易成本；這已包含在我們資本影響130個基點的指引之中。其次，自合併入帳起，Evelyn自身的營運成本也會反映出來。接著，我們也很熟悉、也談了很多的「達成成本」（cost to achieve），也就是為了實現1億英鎊的成本綜效而需要投入的總達成成本1.5億英鎊。

And finally, we are going to have ongoing amortization of the intangibles that will be created upon completion. That doesn't impact our capital generation going forward as we've incurred that as part of the capital impact of the 130 basis points.

最後，在完成後，因交易而產生的無形資產將會有持續的攤銷。這不會影響我們未來的資本生成，因為我們已將其作為130個基點資本影響的一部分而承擔。

Obviously, I'll give you more detail when we get to the point of completion. But when you think of lumpiness, think of -- they're absolutely rock solid on their 8.2. That's where they'll land because they always do. But there will be a little bit as Evelyn comes in. So think about that in your models of those four different kind of categories. Hopefully, that's helpful to you, Sheel, as well.

當然，等到完成時我會提供更多細節。但你在思考「不均勻」時，可以這樣想——他們對82億英鎊的目標是絕對穩如磐石的；最後就會落在那裡，因為他們每次都做得到。但隨著Evelyn併入，會有一些小幅的波動。因此在你的模型裡，請把這四種不同類別納入考量。希望這對你也有幫助，Sheel。

Great. Thanks, Sheel.

很好。謝謝你，Sheel。

Aman Rakkar, Barclays.

Aman Rakkar，巴克萊。

Good morning.

早安。

Good morning.

早安。

Good morning.

早安。

Hopefully you can hear me okay, sorry.

希望你們聽得到我，抱歉。

Yeah, we can yes.

有的，我們聽得到。

I had two questions then. So could I just trouble you on the deposit margin, please? I think that 2 bps deposit margin Q-on-Q contribution, I think it's the softest uplift Q-on-Q. And obviously, you've got multiple moving parts in that, notably a massive structural hedge tailwind, but presumably offset by compression on kind of actual deposit spreads in the quarter.

我有兩個問題。第一個想請教存款利差（deposit margin）。我認為本季存款利差對季增（Q-on-Q）的貢獻是2個基點，這看起來是對季增最疲弱的提升。而且你們那裡有多個變動因素，尤其是結構性避險（structural hedge）帶來很大的順風，但推測在本季應該被實際存款利差的壓縮所抵消。

So I was interested in your sense of the deposit margin contribution on a sequential basis in coming quarters, please? And to what extent do you think this kind of intense deposit competition dynamic, particularly for term deposits, I mean, lots of people writing term deposits at negative spread kind of feeds into that would be really helpful.

所以我想請問你們對於未來幾季存款利差貢獻在序列（sequential）上的看法？以及你們認為目前這種激烈的存款競爭態勢，特別是定期存款——我的意思是，很多同業在承作定存時是以負利差——這會在多大程度上影響上述走勢？如果能說明會很有幫助。

And then the second question was a broader question just around actually the income dynamic beyond this year because it feels like there's a building confidence around the income profile beyond this year, principally because of the interest rate environment. It's not really materially moving the needle on this year's guide as much as it perhaps will do on the forward look, not least because of the structural hedge.

第二個問題比較宏觀，關於今年以後的收入動態。感覺市場對今年以後的收入輪廓愈來愈有信心，主要是因為利率環境。它對今年指引的影響似乎沒有對前瞻展望那麼大，尤其是因為結構性避險。

But I'm thinking about the cadence for net interest income through the course of this year is presumably going to be quite robust, right, in terms of what it means for next year. So is that the right characterization? And kind of what do you as a management team do with that, the kind of building confidence on the income outlook in the medium term versus what is quite an uncertain near-term dynamic in the Middle East?

但我在想，今年淨利息收入在全年推進的節奏（cadence）應該會相當強勁，對明年的意涵也會很正面，對吧？所以這樣的描述是否正確？以及作為管理團隊，你們會如何運用這種對中期收入展望逐步建立的信心，來對應中東地區短期動態仍相當不確定的情況？

Thank you. Perfect. So deposit margin, 2 basis points in this quarter. I think you need to just think a little bit about the overall movement in balances in the quarter. So you've got tax outflows, GBP10.3 billion. They are predominantly in January. Some do dribble into February, but they are predominantly there. We're confident around the deposit margin expansion will be greater in the coming months as we move forward from here.

謝謝。很好。所以本季存款利差為2個基點。我認為你需要稍微從本季整體餘額變動來思考。也就是說，你有稅款流出，103億英鎊。這些主要發生在1月。有些會延續到2月，但主要都在那段期間。我們有信心，隨著接下來幾個月往前推進，存款利差的擴張幅度會更大。

If we then look at kind of income beyond 2026, we expect annual income growth through 2026 to 2028. We're confident in that growth trajectory. Obviously, disciplined growth across lending, deposits and AUMAs continue in line with our CAL target of greater than 4%. That will obviously be boosted by the Evelyn Partners acquisition when it comes online.

如果我們再看2026年之後的收入，我們預期2026年至2028年年度收入將持續成長。我們對這條成長軌跡有信心。當然，放款、存款與AUMA的有紀律成長將持續，並符合我們CAL大於4%的目標。當Evelyn Partners的收購案上線後，這也將進一步帶動成長。

The higher for longer interest rate environment, we've got -- now got the terminal bank rate of 3.75% alongside the actions that we took in -- already taken in Q1 to move higher in the yield curve, meaning that we are increasingly confident on the income tailwind from the structural hedge, supporting income all the way through to 2030. You've got other variables like customer behavior, competitor behavior around pricing and macroeconomics.

在「高利率維持更久」的環境下，我們現在的終端銀行利率為3.75%，再加上我們在第一季已採取的行動、將部位往殖利率曲線較高端移動，這意味著我們對結構性避險所帶來的收入順風愈來愈有信心，並可一路支撐收入到2030年。你還有其他變數，例如客戶行為、同業在定價上的行為，以及總體經濟。

We'll see how these develop. But again, you can see what we've got in terms of our economics in there. And given that kind of interest rate sensitivity that we have, we do see that as a net positive for income beyond 2026. So overall, confident and building on our confidence that we had when we spoke to you in February as well. Thanks very much, Aman.

我們會觀察這些因素如何發展。但同樣地，你可以看到我們在其中的經濟假設。而鑑於我們對利率的敏感度，我們確實認為這對2026年之後的收入是淨正面影響。整體而言，我們有信心，而且也延續了我們在2月與各位溝通時的信心。非常感謝，Aman。

Yeah, and as to your final point, Aman, how do management characterize that? I think as Katie finished there, net-net, it feels like we're in a stronger position on income and returns, both '26, but also looking out to '28.. Thanks.

是的，關於你最後一點，Aman，管理層如何描述？我想如Katie剛才總結的，整體來看，我們在收入與報酬方面處於更強的位置，不僅是2026年，也包括展望到2028年。謝謝。

Amit Goel, Mediobanca.

Amit Goel，Mediobanca。

Hi, thank you. Hopefully, you can hear me okay.

嗨，謝謝。希望你們聽得到我。

Yeah, we've got you crystal clear.

是的，我們聽得非常清楚。

Great, good stuff. Yeah, so two, one, just kind of following up. I suppose just on Slide 30, just on that deposit margin and contribution, just trying to reconcile on each of the divisions, it seems like the cost is coming down, but on the group, it's flattish. So I just wanted to check what's driving that?

太好了，很好。那我有兩點，第一個算是追問。我想針對第30頁，關於存款利差與貢獻，我試著在各事業部之間對照，似乎成本在下降，但在集團層面卻大致持平。所以我想確認一下，這背後的驅動因素是什麼？

And then secondly, just on Evelyn, just curious how the business -- I mean, if you've got any color in terms of how the business has been developing since the acquisition announcement and I guess, during the first quarter and beyond in terms of AUA. So just anything on that would be helpful. Thank you. Great.

第二個是關於Evelyn，我想了解一下該業務——我是說，如果你們能提供一些色彩，說明自收購公告以來，以及我猜第一季與之後，在AUA方面業務發展如何。任何相關資訊都會很有幫助。謝謝。很好。

Okay. You go first.

好的。你先回答。

The first one, absolutely. So if you look at the businesses, what that is, is that's representing the customer rate on deposits or loans, whereas if I look at the group number, it's the overall cost, including hedging. So it's not perfectly like-for-like as you look across those two lines.

第一個問題，當然可以。如果你看各個業務，那裡呈現的是存款或貸款的客戶利率；但如果我看集團數字，那是包含避險在內的整體成本。因此，當你在這兩條線之間對照時，並不是完全可比（like-for-like）。

Paul, Evelyn?

Paul，Evelyn呢？

Yeah, So Amit, obviously, I can't comment on a business that we don't yet own. So that wouldn't be appropriate. What I would say is in terms of the planning to closure is going very well. We're moving at pace. We hope to announce that in the coming months. The work on -- the appropriate work on integration is progressing really well. You can see from our AUMA performance as in NatWest, the AUM performance, the strength, net new money above 8%, again, despite the market movements, top quartile investment performance. The -- going back to the AUM, kind of 10% up on year-on-year, which is great.

是的，Amit，顯然我不能評論一家我們尚未擁有的企業，所以那樣不合適。我能說的是，就從規劃到完成交割而言進展非常順利。我們正加速推進，希望在未來幾個月宣布。關於整合的相關工作也進展得非常好。你可以從我們在NatWest的AUMA表現、也就是AUM表現看到其強勁：淨新增資金超過8%，即使在市場波動之下仍然如此；投資績效位居同業前四分位。回到AUM，年增大約10%，這很棒。

So there's a limit. There's obvious limits to what I can say. But in the work that we're doing so far, we're very encouraged. I've spoken at length around the scale and the capabilities that Evelyn will bring. I think if you look at the success we're starting to have around retail investments and premier investment in the NatWest space, the acquisition of Evelyn is only going to accelerate that.

所以我能說的有其限制，這點很明顯。但就我們目前所做的工作而言，我們非常受到鼓舞。我已經多次談到Evelyn將帶來的規模與能力。我認為，如果你看我們在NatWest領域的零售投資與尊榮（Premier）投資方面開始取得的成功，收購Evelyn只會加速這一切。

So to me, the demand signals and the performance signals are good. Once we've closed, as Katie alluded to earlier in relation to the cost question, once we've closed, we'll obviously share a lot more detail in terms of the overall numbers and the plans, and we are eager to do that as soon as we can. Thanks, Amit.

因此，就我而言，需求訊號與績效訊號都不錯。一旦完成交割，正如Katie先前在成本問題上所提到的，我們將會分享更多關於整體數字與計畫的細節，而且我們也很希望能在可行的最早時間這麼做。謝謝，Amit。

Ed Firth, KBW.

Ed Firth，KBW。

Yeah, morning, everybody. Thanks for the questions. I just have two. The first one is just on detail. I think at the time of Evelyn, we were talking about GBP300 million of revenue and GBP300 million of costs in the first year. Is that still the right number we should be getting? So that was just my first question.

是的，各位早安。謝謝讓我提問。我只有兩個問題。第一個是細節問題。我記得在談Evelyn時，我們提到第一年約3億英鎊收入與3億英鎊成本。這仍然是我們應該採用的正確數字嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

Yeah, nothing has changed since the original disclosures, Ed. That's the best way to think about it.

Ed，自最初的揭露以來沒有任何改變。用這種方式來理解是最好的。

Perfect. Okay. And then the second question was related to Jonathan's question really about risk because I've just struck that in your sort of worst-case scenario, you're talking about a low few hundred millions of credit losses, I guess, something like that. I know it's more than GBP99 million, but it's not huge. And that's on a GBP30 billion tangible equity invest, and you're making pre-provision profits of GBP10 billion a year.

很好。好的。第二個問題其實與Jonathan關於風險的問題相關，因為我注意到在你們所謂的最壞情境中，你們談的是幾億英鎊出頭的信用損失，我猜大概是那樣。我知道會高於9,900萬英鎊，但也不算大。而這是建立在300億英鎊有形股東權益投入之上，你們每年稅前、提存前獲利有100億英鎊。

And so I'm just wondering, how do you think about appetite to risk? I mean, do you really feel confident that you're taking enough risk? Because it feels to me that potentially there's quite a gap there for you to be doing quite a lot more and growing revenue quite a lot faster than you are.

所以我在想，你們如何看待風險承擔意願？我的意思是，你們真的覺得自己承擔的風險夠嗎？因為在我看來，你們可能還有相當大的空間可以做更多，並讓收入成長得比現在快得多。

And I guess related to that, can I just ask about Slide 33 again? I mean it's a great slide, and thank you very much indeed for giving it to us. And I wish all the other banks would as well. But it does strike me that particularly your funds lending looks quite a lot bigger than I would ever have imagined. And is that -- I mean, I don't know the market that well, but I guess you do. You're a market leader in that space. Is that -- would you imagine that you are sort of bigger than most people? Or would you think that you're just a player and that's pretty standing? Because unfortunately, other people don't give us that type of a disclosure. But thanks so much.

另外也相關地，我可以再問一次第33頁嗎？那是一張很棒的投影片，非常感謝你們提供。我也希望其他銀行也能這樣揭露。但我確實注意到，特別是你們的基金放款規模看起來比我原先想像的大很多。那——我的意思是，我不太熟這個市場，但我想你們很熟。你們在這個領域是市場領導者。你們是否會認為自己比大多數同業都更大？還是你們覺得自己只是其中一個參與者，規模其實也算正常？因為很可惜，其他人沒有提供這類揭露。再次謝謝。

Great. Okay. Thanks, Ed. Good to hear from you. Quite a few different questions there. So we've got the kind of the extreme downside kind of credit piece. Katie, why don't you have a shot at that. I'll cover funds. And then there's a bit, I guess, linked to the -- just on lending risk appetite as well.

很好。好的。謝謝，Ed，很高興聽到你的提問。這裡有好幾個不同的問題。包括極端下行情境的信用損失部分。Katie，你先回答那一塊。我來談基金放款。然後我想也有一部分與——也就是放款風險承擔意願相關。

Yes, I'll crack on impairment, and you can jump in after that. So Ed, what I'd probably do is guide you a little bit. If you go after the call, on Page 27 of our IMS today, we gave you, I think, helpfully as a nonstandard Q1 disclosure, the -- what the -- our new change in our scenarios would be. And you can see that on the downside scenario for Stage 1 and Stage 2, it's GBP99 million additional.

好的，我先談減損，你之後可以補充。Ed，我可能會稍微引導你一下。你在電話會議後如果去看我們今天的IMS第27頁，我們以一個非標準的第一季揭露方式，提供了——我們情境變動後的新結果。我想這很有幫助。你可以看到，在下行情境下，第一階段與第二階段（Stage 1與Stage 2）是額外增加9,900萬英鎊。

But if you went to the extreme downside, that's a GBP1.7 billion hit. So really very different in terms of numbers. And you can also see that, that's obviously greater than the hit we would have had at the year-end in that space. So I would just -- I'd probably just rebalance your numbers a little bit on that. That's obviously just Stage 1 and Stage 2.

但如果你看極端下行情境，那會是17億英鎊的衝擊。所以在數字上其實差異非常大。你也可以看到，這顯然高於我們在年末時在該部分可能承受的衝擊。所以我會——我可能會建議你把你對那部分的數字稍微重新校準一下。當然，這裡指的只是第一階段與第二階段。

We would -- I would kind of point out that, that extreme downside is really quite far away from our base case. But obviously, it's blended into the number. I think we gave about 14% probability kind of weighting. So quite far out there, but it is something to kind of consider as you look at the numbers.

我們會——我想我會指出，那種極端下行情境其實離我們的基本情境相當遙遠。但顯然，它已被納入數字之中。我想我們給了大約 14% 的機率權重。所以那是相當遙遠的情境，但當你看這些數字時，仍值得納入考量。

And Paul, shall I come to you for the other?

Paul，另一個問題我可以請你回答嗎？

Yeah, yes, fine. Thank you, Katie. So on funds lending, I'm glad you liked the disclosure, right, I would say. On funds lending, that's a really long-standing business for us in excess of 20 years. A large part of that business is in our RBSI, which is our Channel Islands business, been in our disclosures for all that period of time. Probably worth diving in into a little bit of the detail.

嗯，是的，可以。謝謝你，Katie。關於基金放款，我很高興你喜歡我們的揭露，我會這麼說。基金放款對我們而言是一項超過 20 年的長期業務。其中很大一部分是在我們的 RBSI，也就是我們的海峽群島業務，這段期間一直都在我們的揭露中。或許值得再深入一些細節。

I wouldn't say we were a leader in that business. I'd say we're a strong player where we choose to participate. It's worth bearing in mind of that funds lending business, 80% of it is, I guess, what you know as subscription lines or capital call facilities. So that's where you kind of got exposure to LPs, and we take security charge over the LPs.

我不會說我們是這項業務的領導者。我會說，在我們選擇參與的領域，我們是很強的參與者。值得記住的是，在這項基金放款業務中，80% 是你所熟知的認購額度（subscription lines）或資本催繳融資（capital call facilities）。也就是說，你對 LP 有曝險，而我們會對 LP 的權益設定擔保權。

Typically, that's pretty short dated as well, just to give you a bit more context, one to three years. So when you look at that line, the best part of GBP17 billion is sublines. The other part is NAV, which is a smaller part, kind of GBP3 billion, GBP4 billion. And that's where you're seeing it, in effect, in a senior creditor when you're lending on to a particular asset.

通常這也相當短期，提供你一些背景，大約一到三年。所以當你看那一行數字時，約 170 億英鎊的大部分是 sublines。另一部分是 NAV，規模較小，大約 30 億到 40 億英鎊。那部分基本上是你在針對特定資產放款時，作為優先債權人所看到的。

Average LTVs, again, just to help you there, around 30%, and you've got an institutional investor base. So very long-standing business. It's been predominantly led out of our Channel Islands business, no historical losses. So a good business, but there'll be -- as you look across European US banks, you'll see different levels of exposure. I'd say we're strong, but certainly not a leader. Thanks.

平均 LTV（貸款價值比），再補充一下，大約在 30% 左右，而且你有機構投資人基礎。因此這是一項非常長期的業務，主要由我們的海峽群島業務主導，歷史上沒有損失。所以這是一門好生意，但當你放眼歐洲與美國的銀行時，你會看到不同程度的曝險。我會說我們很強，但肯定不是領導者。謝謝。

And in terms of risk, do we feel we've got the balance very much we're taking to get to his last question?

那就風險而言，我們是否覺得我們所承擔的風險與平衡，已足以回應他最後一個問題？

Yeah, I think I hear both -- I guess, Ed, I hear both sides of the story. From some investors, I hear they really value the low-risk business model, well-diversified credit base, high risk-adjusted returns that you see. And then you hear the other side is, could you take more risk.

是的，我想我兩邊的觀點都聽到了——我想，Ed，我聽到兩種說法。有些投資人很重視低風險的商業模式、分散良好的信貸基礎，以及你所看到的高風險調整後報酬。另一邊則會問：你們能不能承擔更多風險。

I think the way we've approached our different asset portfolios, both in retail and commercial, has stood us in good stead. It allows us to perform well with a low cost of risk. We generate a high cost -- a high amount of capital. Our RoTEs are obviously sector-leading. So it feels like that -- we've got the balance right.

我認為，我們在零售與商業兩端對不同資產組合的做法，一直讓我們處於有利位置。這使我們能以較低的風險成本表現良好。我們產生大量資本。我們的 RoTE 顯然是同業領先。所以感覺——我們的平衡是對的。

We do at times, increase our risk appetite. You go back over the course of the last couple of years, you can see some of the moves we've made in retail. We've broadened our addressable markets in mortgages and credit cards. But I kind of feel that a UK-centric low-risk business model, high capital generation serves us well. So it feels like we're in the right space. Hopefully, that gives you a bit of insight into how management think about it, Ed. Thanks.

我們確實會在某些時候提高風險偏好。回顧過去幾年，你可以看到我們在零售端做出的一些調整。我們擴大了房貸與信用卡的可服務市場。但我覺得，以英國為核心的低風險商業模式，加上高資本生成能力，對我們很有利。所以感覺我們處在正確的位置。希望這能讓你更了解管理層如何思考這件事，Ed。謝謝。

Thank you for all your questions today. I will now hand over to Paul for closing comments.

感謝你今天提出的所有問題。我現在把時間交給 Paul 做結語。

Yes, Thanks, Oliver. So I just want to close with, I think, a couple of key points, which I think are particularly important given the context we're in and I think demonstrate why we think we're very well positioned as a bank.

是的，謝謝你，Oliver。我想用幾個關鍵點作結，我認為在我們所處的背景下特別重要，也能說明為什麼我們認為自己作為一家銀行處於非常有利的位置。

The first one is our deposit franchise and the gearing that gives us to rates. Obviously, that's driven by our corporate franchise. It supports our revenue growth, especially in a higher for longer environment.

第一點是我們的存款特許經營（deposit franchise），以及它讓我們對利率變動具備的槓桿效應。顯然，這是由我們的企業客戶特許經營所驅動。在「高利率維持更久」的環境下，這能支撐我們的營收成長。

The second thing I would point to is the growth track record that we've built and continue to build and the targets that we've put out there. We think we've got a good track record and further opportunities across our three businesses. You can see also the progress we're making around cost management and our cost/income ratio and continuing benefits of operating leverage.

第二點我想指出的是，我們已建立並持續建立的成長紀錄，以及我們對外提出的目標。我們認為我們有良好的往績，且在三大業務上仍有進一步機會。你也可以看到我們在成本管理、成本／收入比方面的進展，以及營運槓桿帶來的持續效益。

And then to link it to Ed's question, if you look at the loan book and you look at the Bank of England stress tests, we are the most resilient bank under stress. I think that's as a consequence of our diversified business mix. So the lowest stress drawdown of any UK bank. So you add all that up together, superior returns, high capital generation, which can drive stronger distributions. So from my perspective, we feel very well placed as we look into the circumstances that face us.

再把它連結到 Ed 的問題，如果你看貸款組合，再看英格蘭銀行的壓力測試，我們是在壓力情境下最具韌性的銀行。我認為這是我們多元化業務組合的結果。因此，我們的壓力情境下資本下滑幅度（stress drawdown）是所有英國銀行中最低的。把這些加總起來，就是更優異的報酬、更高的資本生成能力，進而能推動更強的股東分配。所以就我而言，面對我們將要面臨的各種情勢，我們覺得自己處於非常有利的位置。

Thanks for your time. I hope you have a good weekend. Cheers.

謝謝你撥冗參與。祝你週末愉快。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。