諾基亞 (NOK) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Nokia's Second Quarter 2021 Conference Call. I'm David Mulholland, Head of Nokia's Investor Relations. Today, we have Pekka Lundmark, our President and CEO; along with our CFO, Marco Wiren, connected with us via video and audio from our Espoo offices.

各位女士、先生，早安。歡迎參加諾基亞 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。我是 David Mulholland，諾基亞投資人關係主管。今天與會的有我們的總裁暨執行長 Pekka Lundmark，以及我們的財務長 Marco Wiren，兩位皆透過視訊與音訊自埃斯波（Espoo）辦公室連線。

During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding our future business and financial performance, and these statements are predictions that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may therefore differ materially from the results we currently expect. Factors that could cause such differences can be both external as well as internal operating factors. We have identified such factors in the section titled Operating and financial review and prospects-Risk factors of our 2020 annual report on Form 20-F, as well as our other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

在本次電話會議中，我們將就未來業務與財務表現發表前瞻性陳述；這些陳述屬於預測，並涉及風險與不確定性。因此，實際結果可能與我們目前預期的結果有重大差異。造成差異的因素可能來自外部，也可能來自內部營運因素。我們已在 2020 年度 Form 20-F 年報中「營運與財務回顧及展望—風險因素」章節，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中，辨識並說明了相關因素。

Within the presentation today, unless stated otherwise, references to growth rates will mostly be on a constant currency growth rate basis, and margins will be based on our comparable reporting. Please note that our results release, the complete report with tables and the presentation on our website include comparable results information in addition to the reported results information. Our complete financial tables available on our website includes a detailed explanation of the content of the comparable information and a reconciliation between the comparable and the reported information. Today's stock exchange release and presentation can be found on our Investor Relations website.

在今天的簡報中，除非另有說明，成長率的提及多以固定匯率（constant currency）成長率為基礎，而利潤率則以我們的可比（comparable）口徑呈現。請注意，我們的業績新聞稿、網站上的完整報告（含表格）以及簡報，除已報告（reported）結果資訊外，亦包含可比結果資訊。我們網站上提供的完整財務表格，包含對可比資訊內容的詳細說明，以及可比與已報告資訊之間的調節。今日的證交所公告與簡報可於我們的投資人關係網站查閱。

With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Pekka.

接下來，我想把電話會議交給 Pekka。

Thank you, David, and hello, everyone, and thanks for joining the call. I hope you and your families remain safe and well. Our great start to 2021 continued in Q2, and this has enabled us to increase our outlook for the full year. My presentation today will include a brief overview of our financial performance, followed by an update on the progress we have made in each business group against the strategy we outlined earlier in the year. I will then hand over to Marco to go through the financial performance in more detail.

謝謝你，David。各位好，感謝加入本次電話會議。希望你和家人都平安健康。我們在 2021 年的強勁開局於第二季延續，這也使我們得以上調全年展望。我今天的簡報將先簡要概述我們的財務表現，接著更新各事業群在年初所提出策略下的進展。之後我會把時間交給 Marco，請他更詳細說明財務表現。

As highlighted on the slide, in the second quarter, we delivered 9% constant currency net sales growth. That was primarily driven by Network Infrastructure with 20% growth in constant currency and strong performance across all product areas. We are benefiting from a robust end-market dynamic, particularly in Fixed Networks, but we are also achieving meaningful market share gains and very strong demand for submarine networks.

如投影片所示，第二季我們實現固定匯率下淨銷售成長 9%。這主要由網路基礎設施（Network Infrastructure）帶動，固定匯率成長 20%，且各產品領域表現強勁。我們受惠於強勁的終端市場動能，尤其是在固定網路（Fixed Networks）方面；同時，我們也取得顯著的市占提升，並在海底網路（submarine networks）方面看到非常強勁的需求。

Nokia Technologies saw new deals in automotive and some one-off brand licensing deals. In addition, our underlying recurring royalty base expanded double digits year-on-year. Positively despite being in the reset phase of the strategy, both Mobile Networks and Cloud and Network Services also delivered growth in constant currency. Profitability-wise, our comparable gross margin expanded 270 basis points year-on-year. This benefited from a one-off software deal in Mobile Networks, but we saw a strong underlying expansion even excluding that deal. Comparable operating margin came in ahead of our expectations as strong growth in Network Infrastructure and good cost discipline across businesses drove good operating leverage. This shows that the underlying potential of the business exists but we still see headwinds into the second half of the year, which we will visit later.

諾基亞技術（Nokia Technologies）在車用領域取得新合約，並達成一些一次性的品牌授權交易。此外，我們的基礎經常性權利金（royalty）收入基礎年增達雙位數。正面的是，儘管策略仍處於重整階段，行動網路（Mobile Networks）以及雲端與網路服務（Cloud and Network Services）也都在固定匯率下實現成長。在獲利能力方面，我們的可比毛利率年增 270 個基點。這受惠於行動網路的一筆一次性軟體交易，但即使排除該交易，我們仍看到強勁的基本面擴張。可比營業利益率優於我們預期，因網路基礎設施的強勁成長，以及各業務良好的成本紀律，帶來良好的營運槓桿。這顯示業務的內在潛力確實存在，但我們仍預期下半年將面臨逆風，稍後會再說明。

Back in March, we announced our new 3-phase strategy to achieve sustainable profitable growth and technology leadership. In Q2, we saw progress in a number of areas against this strategy. The most notable of these in Q2 were our major product launch just over a month ago in Mobile Networks, our established technology leadership in Network Infrastructure that has seen us gain market share, and in the new automotive license -- and the new automotive licenses signed in Nokia Technologies. I will revert to these highlights in more detail shortly, but I just want to emphasize that we are seeing progress in all areas of the business and across all elements of the strategy. I am grateful and proud of how quickly the Nokia team has adapted to our new operating model and we are already starting to see some benefits from the new structure. Our business groups are taking clear accountability and ownership for their financial performance, which has helped expand margins.

回到 3 月，我們宣布新的三階段策略，以實現可持續的獲利成長與技術領導地位。第二季，我們在多個領域依此策略取得進展。其中第二季最值得注意的是：行動網路在一個多月前的重大產品發表、網路基礎設施既有的技術領導地位帶動我們取得市占，以及諾基亞技術簽署新的車用授權——以及新簽訂的車用授權。我稍後會更詳細回到這些重點，但我想強調的是，我們在業務各領域以及策略各要素上都看到進展。我很感激也很自豪諾基亞團隊能如此迅速地適應新的營運模式，而我們也已開始看到新架構帶來的一些效益。各事業群對其財務表現承擔明確責任並擁有主導權，這有助於擴大利潤率。

Let's now look into some of the specifics of the quarter, business group by business group and starting with Mobile Networks. Earlier in the year, we said we were targeting full portfolio competitiveness through 2021. The launch of our new AirScale radio and baseband product platforms at the end of June was a major piece of that. All the new AirScale product platforms are based on new ReefShark system on chips, and as a result, this launch was key to us remaining on track with our ReefShark targets. As a reminder, we said that by year-end, we want 70% of shipments to be ReefShark-based with a target of increasing 100% by the end of 2022. The launch included a series of new massive MIMO active antenna radios, all of which are the industry's widest bandwidth support of up to 400 megahertz. This can help operators to make efficient use of fragmented spectrum allocations. The new ReefShark SoCs will also be used in our 8T8R radio in addition to massive MIMO.

接下來我們按事業群逐一檢視本季細節，先從行動網路開始。今年稍早我們表示，目標是在 2021 年內達成全產品組合的競爭力。6 月底推出全新的 AirScale 無線電與基頻（baseband）產品平台，是其中的重要一環。所有新的 AirScale 產品平台皆採用新的 ReefShark 系統單晶片（SoC），因此此次發表對我們維持 ReefShark 目標進度至關重要。提醒一下，我們表示到年底希望 70% 的出貨採用 ReefShark，並以在 2022 年底提升至 100% 為目標。此次發表包含一系列新的 massive MIMO 主動天線無線電產品，全部支援業界最寬的頻寬，最高可達 400 兆赫（MHz）。這可協助營運商更有效率地利用碎片化的頻譜配置。新的 ReefShark SoC 除了用於 massive MIMO，也將用於我們的 8T8R 無線電產品。

I would also like to highlight that our 32TRX massive MIMO active antenna, which is typically enjoying the largest volumes in operator deployments, is the industry's lightest. This is a very important factor for customers in terms of ease of deployment and loading of site infrastructure. With the new baseband boards, we now can take the box of having common baseband for 5G and previous radio technologies. The baseband products we have launched can support up to 90,000 connected users with 84 gigabits per second air interface throughput. We expect to have largely caught up with the competition by the end of the year, and as you can see from these features, in some areas, we could even lead the market.

我也想特別強調，我們的 32TRX massive MIMO 主動天線（通常在營運商部署中擁有最大出貨量）是業界最輕的。對客戶而言，這在部署便利性以及基地台基礎設施承載（loading）方面是非常重要的因素。透過新的基頻板卡（baseband boards），我們現在可以勾選「5G 與既有無線電技術共用基頻」這一項。此次推出的基頻產品可支援最多 90,000 名連線用戶，並提供每秒 84Gb 的空中介面吞吐量。我們預期在年底前大致追上競爭對手；而從這些特性也可看出，在某些領域我們甚至可能領先市場。

Importantly, for both our commitment to efficiency and sustainability, the baseband product is also up to 75% more power-efficient. This is important not only for us but for our customers as well as we all work to reduce our environmental footprint. Nokia remains committed to our stated goal of reducing our greenhouse gas emissions, including in the use of our products, by 50% between 2019 and 2030. The new AirScale products will really help us to hit that figure.

同樣重要的是，為了實現我們對效率與永續的承諾，該基頻產品的能源效率最高可提升 75%。這不僅對我們重要，對客戶也同樣重要，因為我們都在努力降低環境足跡。諾基亞仍致力於既定目標：在 2019 年至 2030 年間，將溫室氣體排放（包括產品使用階段的排放）降低 50%。新的 AirScale 產品將能大幅協助我們達成該目標。

The customer response to the launch has so far been very strong. If you want to launch -- if you watched the launch video on our website, you can see a number of the customer endorsements we have received. The baseband products are already shipping with general availability later in the year. And meanwhile, our radio products are expected to start shipping later in the year with general availability coming early in 2022. In fact, the introduction of the new baseband board has been the fastest from the time of making the product decision to shipping product in at least 2 decades. And it may be the fastest-ever in Nokia's wireless business. This is due to improvements in product development processes and tooling.

目前客戶對此次發表的回應非常強勁。如果你想了解發表內容——如果你看過我們網站上的發表影片，你可以看到我們收到的多項客戶背書。基頻產品已開始出貨，並將於今年稍晚全面供貨（general availability）。同時，我們的無線電產品預計於今年稍晚開始出貨，並於 2022 年初全面供貨。事實上，新基頻板卡從做出產品決策到開始出貨的導入速度，至少是過去 20 年來最快，甚至可能是諾基亞無線業務史上最快。這得益於產品開發流程與工具（tooling）的改善。

Regarding progress on our 5G KPIs, we continued to see a good improvement in our ReefShark SoC-based deployment with 54% of 5G shipments in Q2. As said, that is on track to reach our 70% goal by the end of this year. On the conversion rate, excluding China, or the conversion rate that we are targeting and forecasting excluding China, remains approximately 90%, but it has improved slightly in the quarter. We believe this number is now stabilizing and we see opportunities for it to improve, although the timing of those deals is uncertain.

關於我們 5G KPI 的進展，我們持續看到以 ReefShark SoC 為基礎的部署有良好改善，第二季 5G 出貨中有 54% 採用 ReefShark。如前所述，這符合我們在今年底達到 70% 目標的進度。在轉換率方面，排除中國後——或我們在排除中國情況下所鎖定並預測的轉換率——仍約為 90%，但本季略有改善。我們認為這個數字目前正在趨於穩定，且仍有機會進一步提升，儘管相關交易的時點仍不確定。

And finally, I would like to note the progress we have made with customers, including winning back a customer in Canada and the recently announced share we have provisionally won in the China Mobile tender. In China, as you will have seen, we were recently awarded 4% market share in the China Mobile and China Broadcast Network, 700 megahertz 5G joint bid positioning us as the third vendor. We believe this is a good endorsement of our improved product quality.

最後，我想提到我們在客戶方面取得的進展，包括在加拿大贏回一位客戶，以及近期宣布我們在中國移動招標中暫時取得的份額。在中國，如各位所見，我們近期在中國移動與中國廣電網路（China Broadcast Network）700 兆赫 5G 聯合投標中獲得 4% 的市占，使我們成為第三大供應商。我們認為這是對我們產品品質提升的良好肯定。

Moving on to Network Infrastructure. We have seen extremely strong growth in this business group in the first half with growth driven by all the businesses. Our Fixed Networks business continues to benefit from what we believe is a structural shift from operators across the globe to increase home broadband connectivity. This has been accelerated as many workforces are likely to move to a hybrid home-office working model in the future. Nokia will actually be doing the same. We have also seen a significant acceleration in demand for our fixed wireless access solutions. I would also note that we are seeing good market share momentum in many areas of Network Infrastructure. This has been key to enabling our growth performance this year, and we have continued to work hard to deliver on our customers' increasing demand despite the global semiconductor shortage.

接下來談到網路基礎設施（Network Infrastructure）。我們在上半年看到此業務群組呈現極為強勁的成長，且成長動能來自所有業務。我們的固定網路（Fixed Networks）業務持續受惠於我們所認為的結構性轉變：全球各地的電信營運商正提高家庭寬頻連線能力。由於未來許多勞動力可能轉向「居家—辦公室」混合工作模式，這一趨勢已被加速。諾基亞實際上也將採取相同作法。我們也看到對固定無線接取（fixed wireless access）解決方案的需求顯著加速。此外我也要指出，我們在網路基礎設施的多個領域正看到良好的市占動能。這是促成我們今年成長表現的關鍵，我們也持續努力在全球半導體短缺的情況下，仍能交付客戶日益增加的需求。

As we look towards the second half of the year, we faced tougher year-on-year comparisons from a growth perspective, but we feel confident about our midterm opportunities as we see a strong opportunity pipeline which, combined with new product launches to come in the second half of the year, should increase our product differentiation further. I want to highlight 2 other points from Q2 for Network Infrastructure. The first is that our optical business continues to make good progress. And the second is that we are also seeing strong momentum in submarine networks, as our previously mentioned backlog continues to flow through into sales as deployments progress.

展望下半年，從成長角度來看，我們將面臨較嚴峻的年對年比較，但我們對中期機會仍具信心，因為我們看到強勁的機會管線；再加上下半年即將推出的新產品，應可進一步提升我們的產品差異化。我想就網路基礎設施在第二季再強調兩點。第一，我們的光學（optical）業務持續取得良好進展。第二，我們也看到海底網路（submarine networks）動能強勁，因為先前提到的在手訂單（backlog）隨著部署推進，正持續轉化為銷售。

Next is our Cloud and Network Services business, which continues to make good progress on its portfolio rebalancing. As a reminder, that includes focusing our R&D efforts on areas where we see strong growth opportunities in the midterm. I would highlight good progress in 2 areas already. Our 5G core product now has over 150 customers and over 200 networks. We also made good progress with our private wireless enterprise solutions and now have more than 340 customers. Work is clearly still continuing in Cloud and Network Services as we refine our product -- as we refine our focus areas for the business to improve its financial performance, but I was pleased with the progress we saw in Q2.

接著是雲端與網路服務（Cloud and Network Services）業務，該業務在產品組合再平衡方面持續取得良好進展。提醒一下，這包括將研發（R&D）資源聚焦在我們認為中期具強勁成長機會的領域。我想先點出兩個領域已取得的良好進展。我們的 5G 核心網（5G core）產品目前已有超過 150 家客戶、超過 200 張網路。我們在私有無線企業解決方案（private wireless enterprise solutions）方面也取得良好進展，目前客戶數已超過 340 家。雲端與網路服務顯然仍在持續推進，我們正持續精煉產品——也就是精煉該業務的聚焦領域以改善其財務表現，但我對第二季所見到的進展感到滿意。

And finally, onto Nokia Technologies. As already mentioned, we signed 2 automotive licensing agreements in Q2, including with Daimler. This shows the underlying strength of our portfolio and the growth prospects in the increasingly connected automotive market. We also continue to renew our industry-leading patent portfolio with investment in 5G, 6G and multimedia R&D.

最後談到諾基亞技術（Nokia Technologies）。如先前所提，我們在第二季簽署了 2 份汽車授權協議，其中包括與戴姆勒（Daimler）的協議。這顯示我們專利組合的內在實力，以及在日益互聯的汽車市場中的成長前景。我們也持續透過投資 5G、6G 與多媒體研發，更新我們業界領先的專利組合。

Before I hand over to Marco to look at the financials in more details, I wanted to touch on our progress with enterprise customers. For many years, we have been working to expand into the enterprise market, and this has paid off with double-digit growth in both the last 2 years. In Q2, we saw a slight decline in enterprise sales, although in the first half, we still achieved solid 9% growth in constant currency. This slowdown in Q2 was largely a reflection of tough year-on-year comparisons and the lumpiness that can be present in some of the larger enterprise deals. However, we continue to make good progress in the business. We signed 63 new customers in Q2 and continue to have confidence in the pipeline for the full year.

在我把時間交給 Marco 更深入說明財務之前，我想先談談我們在企業客戶方面的進展。多年來，我們一直致力於拓展企業市場，而這在過去兩年都帶來了雙位數成長。在第二季，我們看到企業銷售略有下滑，但在上半年，以固定匯率計（constant currency）我們仍達成穩健的 9% 成長。第二季的放緩主要反映了較嚴峻的年對年比較，以及部分大型企業交易可能出現的波動性（lumpiness）。然而，我們在該業務上仍持續取得良好進展。我們在第二季簽下 63 家新客戶，並且對全年機會管線仍具信心。

I will now hand over to Marco for a little more detail.

接下來我把時間交給 Marco，請他提供更多細節。

Thank you, Pekka, and good morning, everyone, from my side as well. I will now provide some more detail on our financial performance in the second quarter. As Pekka already mentioned, we continue to benefit from strengthening end markets. We have also increased our forecast for our addressable market in 2021 and we now estimate that the total addressable market will grow by 5% in constant currency in 2021. And this is up from the previous estimate of 3%. And the increase has primarily been driven by Mobile Networks where we have seen rising investments in 5G. Note also that our forecast for mobile RAN growth in U.S. dollars would be consistent with the estimates for 2021 from third parties just like Dell'Oro.

謝謝你，Pekka，各位早安，我這邊也向大家問好。接下來我將就我們第二季的財務表現提供更多細節。如 Pekka 先前提到，我們持續受惠於終端市場走強。我們也上調了 2021 年可服務市場（addressable market）的預測，目前估計 2021 年整體可服務市場將以固定匯率計成長 5%。這高於先前 3% 的估計。這次上調主要由行動網路（Mobile Networks）所帶動，因為我們看到 5G 投資上升。另請注意，我們以美元計的行動 RAN 成長預測，將與第三方（例如 Dell'Oro）對 2021 年的估計一致。

If we investigate the drivers of our revenue growth, all of our business groups grew in constant currency. We saw particularly strong growth again from Network Infrastructure, as Pekka explained earlier, and Nokia Technologies as we signed new automotive licenses. From a regional perspective, the largest contributors in absolute terms in our growth were India and Latin America, up 75% and 57%, respectively, in constant currencies. And both regions benefited from stronger LTE deployments and demand for our fixed IP and optical products. In Europe, we saw significant growth in 5G deployments with resilience in most other areas of the business. North America saw a robust performance despite the headwinds on market share and pricing based on the contracts negotiated in 2020. In Greater China, we saw a continuation of the strong Mobile Network capacity deployments that we saw in Q1.

若進一步檢視營收成長的驅動因素，我們所有業務群組（business groups）以固定匯率計皆呈現成長。正如 Pekka 先前所說，我們再次看到網路基礎設施帶來特別強勁的成長；而諾基亞技術則因我們簽署新的汽車授權而成長。從區域角度來看，就絕對金額而言，對成長貢獻最大的地區是印度與拉丁美洲，以固定匯率計分別成長 75% 與 57%。兩個地區皆受惠於更強勁的 LTE 部署，以及對我們固定 IP 與光學產品的需求。在歐洲，我們看到 5G 部署顯著成長，且業務其他多數領域展現韌性。北美在 2020 年談定合約所帶來的市占與定價逆風下，仍呈現強勁表現。在大中華區，我們延續了第一季所見到的行動網路容量部署強勁態勢。

One area we wanted to provide some more visibility on our progress this quarter is our gross margin. And this quarter has shown the importance of gross margin expansion in driving our overall financial performance. At the group level, our gross margin saw a slight headwind from product mix as we saw stronger growth in lower-margin products, including Fixed Networks and submarine. This was then offset by better regional mix along with volume benefits and good cost control under our new operating model, giving much greater accountability to the business groups for their financial performance. Finally, we would also -- we also benefit from FX and Mobile Networks' one-off software deal, which has been previously mentioned, and that contributed about 1/3 of our gross margin expansion.

本季我們希望就一個面向提供更多能見度：毛利率（gross margin）。本季顯示毛利率擴張在推動整體財務表現上的重要性。在集團層級，我們的毛利率因產品組合而受到些微逆風，因為我們在較低毛利產品（包括固定網路與海底網路）上看到更強勁的成長。隨後，較佳的區域組合、規模效益以及在新營運模式下良好的成本控管抵銷了這些影響；新營運模式讓各業務群組對其財務表現承擔更高的責任。最後，我們也——我們也受惠於匯率（FX）以及先前提到的行動網路一次性軟體交易，該項約貢獻了我們毛利率擴張的三分之一。

If we then focus on specifically on Mobile Networks, whilst we have seen some financial benefits from our product mix shifting towards 5G ReefShark-based products, there are also other important factors to be aware of that are driving our progress. In Mobile Networks, regional mix was of limited benefit, but we saw a significant improvement from the new operating model. You also see the FX benefit and the impact of the Mobile Networks one-off in the quarter.

若將焦點放在行動網路（Mobile Networks），雖然我們確實因產品組合轉向以 5G ReefShark 為基礎的產品而獲得一些財務效益，但也有其他重要因素需要留意，這些因素正推動我們的進展。在行動網路方面，區域組合帶來的助益有限，但我們從新營運模式中看到顯著改善。同時你也會看到匯率帶來的效益，以及本季行動網路一次性項目的影響。

And looking at the group comparable operating margin performance, you can clearly see the structural improvements we're making in our operating margin. We did face some one-off benefits in the quarter, but even despite those, we continue to make good structural progress. Our cost base remains well-managed. In addition to the benefit of the MN one-off, we saw positive fluctuation in other operating income and expenses related to both etching and venture fund gains. It is also worth noting that in Q2, the stronger business outlook led to greater incentive accruals that partially offset our efforts and cost. Despite this progress, it is worth noting that we face many headwinds still in the second half of the year, as Pekka will highlight in our guidance, but we are encouraged by the progress we've made.

再看集團可比營業利益率（comparable operating margin）的表現，你可以清楚看到我們在營業利益率上所做的結構性改善。本季確實有一些一次性利多，但即使扣除這些因素，我們仍持續取得良好的結構性進展。我們的成本基礎仍維持良好管理。除了行動網路一次性項目的助益外，我們也看到其他營業收入與費用出現正向波動，與蝕刻（etching）以及創投基金收益（venture fund gains）相關。另值得注意的是，在第二季，由於業務展望轉強，激勵金提列（incentive accruals）增加，部分抵銷了我們在成本上的努力與成效。儘管有這些進展，仍需指出下半年我們仍面臨許多逆風，正如 Pekka 在展望指引中將強調的，但我們對已取得的進展感到鼓舞。

And then moving to the financial performance of our individual BGs. I already touched upon the gross margin performance in Mobile Networks earlier, and the comparable operating margin in Mobile Networks, excluding the one-off, would have been essentially stable year-on-year as the improved gross margin was offset by higher R&D investments. In Network Infrastructure, we saw good evidence on how our plan from the Capital Markets Day is playing out. The growth in the business, combined with stable gross margin and stable OpEx, led to strong expansion in operating margins. Now we do expect to see some increased R&D expense in the second half of the year as we continue to invest in the future products to extend our differentiation, but we are pleased to see the operating performance that we have in H1.

接著談各個業務群組（BGs）的財務表現。我先前已提到行動網路的毛利率表現；而行動網路的可比營業利益率若排除一次性項目，年對年基本上將維持穩定，因為毛利率改善被較高的研發投資所抵銷。在網路基礎設施方面，我們看到資本市場日（Capital Markets Day）所提出計畫正在落實的良好證據。業務成長加上毛利率穩定與營業費用（OpEx）穩定，帶動營業利益率強勁擴張。我們確實預期下半年研發費用將有所增加，因為我們持續投資未來產品以延伸差異化，但我們對上半年（H1）的營運表現感到滿意。

And Nokia Technologies. Just like Pekka mentioned, we benefited from 2 automotive licensing agreements signed in the quarter, and the underlying revenue run rate grew and is now between EUR 1.4 billion to EUR 1.5 billion per year. The quarter was largely uneventful from a cash perspective. We generated strong operating profit, but then we saw a meaningful net working capital increase as we paid 2020-related performance incentives to employees and also invested in inventory as we continue to see rising demand for our products and freight payables were largely stable in the quarter. We further reduced the sale of receivables in the quarter. And at this point, I'm very pleased with the underlying cash performance in the business. We have now delivered also a fifth quarter of positive free cash flow. And in quarter 2, we generated about EUR 80 million of free cash flow.

最後是諾基亞技術（Nokia Technologies）。如 Pekka 所提，我們受惠於本季簽署的 2 份汽車授權協議，基本營收運行率（underlying revenue run rate）也成長，目前每年約在 14 億至 15 億歐元之間。就現金角度而言，本季大致平穩。我們創造了強勁的營業利益，但隨後看到淨營運資金（net working capital）明顯增加，原因是我們支付了與 2020 年相關的員工績效獎酬，並且在需求持續上升下增加庫存投資，而運費應付帳款（freight payables）在本季大致維持穩定。我們也在本季進一步降低應收帳款出售（sale of receivables）。就目前而言，我對業務的基本現金表現非常滿意。我們也已連續第五季達成正向自由現金流（free cash flow）。在第二季，我們產生約 8,000 萬歐元的自由現金流。

And the final point I wanted to make today was to remind you of the value Nokia has within our venture funds. In recent quarters, you've seen a positive revaluation gain impacting our other operating income as investments within various funds have matured. Whilst there is never any guarantee of performance, these investments have delivered typically between 15% to 20% IRRs to Nokia by maturity. There have also been other benefits to Nokia's core business in both licensing opportunities and partnerships with companies within the venture funds. Some of the investments within the venture fund have now seen cash distributions back to Nokia, and we continue to have about EUR 760 million book value of assets in our balance sheet that we believe can be accretive to Nokia's value creation going forward.

我今天想提出的最後一點，是提醒各位 Nokia 在我們創投基金中所擁有的價值。近幾季，隨著各基金中的投資逐步成熟，您已看到正向的重估收益，並反映在我們的其他營業收入中。雖然績效從來沒有任何保證，但這些投資在到期時通常為 Nokia 帶來約 15% 至 20% 的 IRR。這些創投基金中的公司也為 Nokia 的核心業務帶來其他效益，包括授權機會以及合作夥伴關係。創投基金中的部分投資如今也已向 Nokia 進行現金分配，而我們的資產負債表上仍約有 7.6 億歐元帳面價值的資產，我們相信未來可為 Nokia 的價值創造帶來增益。

Now back to you, Pekka.

現在交回給你，Pekka。

Thank you, Marco. Given the strong Q2 and first half results, we have today revised our full year 2021 outlook upwards. From a net sales perspective, we now expect to land between EUR 21.7 billion and EUR 22.7 billion, as we are now assuming actual currency rates for the first half and that the end of June rate continues into the second half. We have also revised our comparable operating margin outlook, now expecting it to be in the range of 10% to 12%. While our first half results provide a strong foundation for the rest of the year, we still expect the earlier communicated headwinds to impact us in the second half.

謝謝你，Marco。鑑於第二季以及上半年表現強勁，我們今天上調了 2021 全年展望。就淨銷售額而言，我們目前預期將落在 217 億歐元至 227 億歐元之間，因為我們現在假設上半年採用實際匯率，且 6 月底的匯率水準延續至下半年。我們也修訂了可比營業利益率展望，現在預期區間為 10% 至 12%。雖然上半年結果為今年其餘時間奠定了強勁基礎，但我們仍預期先前所溝通的不利因素將在下半年對我們造成影響。

More specifically, this is related to market share and pricing in North America in regards to contracts made in 2020. Therefore, we still expect typical quarterly earnings seasonality to be less pronounced in 2021. In addition, we continue to accelerate R&D investments. And of course, we are also monitoring the component situation, working very closely with our suppliers to ensure we can meet the strong customer demand we are seeing. We have also adjusted our free cash flow and comparable return on invested capital guidance today based on our first half results.

更具體而言，這與北美市場在 2020 年簽訂合約所涉及的市占率與定價有關。因此，我們仍預期 2021 年典型的季度獲利季節性將不那麼明顯。此外，我們持續加速研發投資。當然，我們也在監控零組件供應情況，並與供應商非常緊密合作，以確保能滿足我們所看到的強勁客戶需求。我們也基於上半年結果，於今日調整了自由現金流以及可比投入資本報酬率的指引。

So in summary, I'm pleased with our strong performance in the first half of the year. Our team has done a great job in establishing such a firm foundation. But as we have said, it is important to bear in mind that our results benefited from some one-offs, and we have a lot of work ahead of us. We are only in the first phase of our strategy execution. But with a good start for the year, we are confident that we are on the right track to achieve our long-term targets. Thank you.

總結來說，我對今年上半年的強勁表現感到滿意。我們的團隊在建立如此穩固的基礎方面做得非常出色。但正如我們所說，重要的是要記住，我們的結果受惠於一些一次性因素，而我們前方仍有大量工作要做。我們仍處於策略執行的第一階段。但在今年有了良好開局之下，我們有信心正走在正確的軌道上，以達成我們的長期目標。謝謝。

Thank you, Pekka. We'll now move over to the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) With that, I'll hand over to the operator, Rachel, who will give the instructions.

謝謝你，Pekka。接下來我們將進入問答環節。(Operator Instructions) 接著我把時間交給接線員 Rachel，由她說明相關指示。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Dominik Olszewski from Morgan Stanley.

(Operator Instructions) 您的第一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Dominik Olszewski。

So the main question would be whether you could discuss the puts and takes around the outlook for 2023. Obviously, you had a very strong performance in the first half of this year and improved guidance for this year. So could you just talk about the puts and takes for 2023? Obviously, no change to the midterm outlook. So that's the main question.

主要問題是，您是否可以談談 2023 年展望的利多與利空因素。顯然，您今年上半年表現非常強勁，並且上調了今年的指引。因此，能否請您談談 2023 年的利多與利空？顯然，中期展望沒有改變。所以這是主要問題。

And then the follow-up is just around the gross margin bridge you gave showing the fixed business and the submarine networks business was a drag on gross margin. So given you feel confident in those businesses, going forward in terms of backlog, can you talk about whether those become less sort of a headwind going forward?

接著追問是關於您提供的毛利率橋接分析，其中顯示固定網路業務與海底網路業務對毛利率造成拖累。因此，鑑於您對這些業務未來在手訂單的信心，能否談談這些因素往後是否會成為較小的逆風？

Okay. Thank you. If I take the first one and, Marco, if you gross margin question. Look, we are still in the early stages of executing on our strategy. Of course, we are really happy with the H1 results, but there were also some one-offs that were helping us there, and then we have the earlier communicated headwinds in the second half of the year. So H1 provides a very good foundation, but it's only 4 months since we announced our 2023 outlook. So we do not see a reason to change it today.

好的，謝謝。第一個我來回答，Marco 你來回答毛利率的問題。你看，我們仍處於策略執行的早期階段。當然，我們對上半年（H1）的結果非常滿意，但其中也有一些一次性因素在幫助我們，此外，下半年還有先前已溝通的不利因素。因此，上半年提供了非常好的基礎，但距離我們公布 2023 年展望也才 4 個月，所以我們目前看不出有理由在今天做出調整。

And what comes to the mix changes and their impact on our gross margins mixes are going up and down quarter-by-quarter. And that's why we believe that it's better to look in the longer term, the business. Of course, if we have continuation of a strong growth in our lower-margin businesses, that will hit and -- our future gross margins and whatever mixes we see, those have been already taken into account in our guidance for '21 as well. So I would say that there's the puts and takes in all of our businesses, not only with these 2.

至於組合變化及其對毛利率的影響，產品組合會隨季度上下波動。因此，我們認為從較長期的角度來看業務會更好。當然，如果我們低毛利業務持續強勁成長，將會影響我們未來的毛利率；而不論我們看到何種組合變化，這些也都已納入我們對 2021 年的指引之中。所以我會說，我們所有業務都有利多與利空因素，不僅僅是這兩項。

Your next question comes from Alex Duval from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Alex Duval。

Yes, firstly, your gross margins are obviously very strong. You've quantified the product mix benefits in wireless but it would be interesting to know a bit more about the extent to which customers now reward you with better prices to add a mobile product, in the extent to which mobile gross margins have further to expand in coming quarters or years if you make further improvements on the wireless side.

是的，首先，你們的毛利率顯然非常強勁。你們已量化了無線業務中產品組合帶來的效益，但我想更了解的是，客戶在你們新增行動產品時，是否會以更好的價格回饋你們；以及如果你們在無線端持續改善，未來幾季或幾年行動業務毛利率是否還有進一步擴張的空間。

And then my quick follow-up would just be on Network Infrastructure revenues. You referenced the strength and the growth there. I wondered to what extent do you see that as sustainable given you did reference work-from-home demand being a booster, which arguably could start to run into hard comps at some point. I'm wondering if there are key product cycles you could point us to or whether you're seeing sustainable demand driven by digitalization more broadly.

接著我快速追問關於網路基礎設施（Network Infrastructure）營收。你們提到該業務的強勁與成長。我想了解在你們也提到居家辦公需求帶來提振、而這可能在某個時間點面臨較高比較基期的情況下，你們認為這樣的成長在多大程度上是可持續的？我想知道是否有關鍵的產品週期可以指出，或是你們看到更廣泛的數位化所驅動的可持續需求。

Okay. Thanks, Alex. So if I take the Network Infrastructure and Marco continues to be our gross margin expert, right? So Network Infrastructure, of course, I mean, look, 20% growth in the quarter, and you saw even some higher numbers in the individual businesses. We do believe that there is some kind of structural underlying changes in the market, especially the home connectivity, home broadband connectivity. And then actually, we are starting to see the effects of the 5G deployment also when you need connectivity for base stations, and all that capacity that is then needed is then also boosting the IP and Optical Networks market.

好的，謝謝你，Alex。那我先回答網路基礎設施，Marco 繼續擔任我們的毛利率專家，對吧？關於網路基礎設施，當然，你看，本季成長 20%，而你也看到個別業務甚至更高的數字。我們確實相信市場存在某種結構性的底層變化，特別是在家庭連線、家庭寬頻連線方面。實際上，隨著 5G 部署推進，當你需要基地台的連線能力時，我們也開始看到其效應，而所需的容量也進一步推升 IP 與光網路市場。

And there are reasons to believe that this trend will continue. And when you then move to the next phase of the mobile network development when the small cells and millimeter-wave radios start to get more common, you will need even more capacity in base station connectivity. So we are optimistic about the structural development of this market. But just to be realistic on numbers, we will already, in the second half, start facing tougher comparables. So don't just automatically assume that these percentages will continue. But structurally, good market going forward.

而且有理由相信這個趨勢將會延續。當你進入行動網路發展的下一階段，小型基地台（small cells）與毫米波無線電（millimeter-wave radios）開始更普及時，你將需要更多的基地台連線容量。因此，我們對這個市場的結構性發展抱持樂觀。但就數字而言，務實地說，我們在下半年就會開始面臨更具挑戰的比較基期。所以不要自動假設這些百分比會持續。但從結構面來看，未來市場仍然不錯。

And when it comes to the gross margin, as you saw in the bridge as well, we have regional mixes that impact positively volume and, of course, the cost. And -- but in the Mobile Networks, we have of course, the 5G ReefShark that is impacting, but also within that, there's cost elements that we have been able to improve and also in the Mobile Networks, services part is improving our gross margin in the quarter as well and as they've been cleaning up the portfolio and agreements as well. So there are different elements that are impacting how that will continue in the future. That, we will get back to you in our guidance. And of course, we -- our ambition is that we will be as good as we can and customers actually expecting as well that we have to show cost improvements in our products.

至於毛利率，如同你在橋接分析中所看到的，我們有區域組合對銷量與當然也對成本帶來正面影響。而在行動網路（Mobile Networks）方面，當然有 5G ReefShark 的影響，但同時其中也有成本要素是我們已能加以改善的；此外，在行動網路中，服務（services）部分本季也在提升我們的毛利率，因為他們也在清理產品組合與合約。因此，有不同要素會影響未來走勢。我們會在指引中再回覆你。當然，我們的企圖心是做到最好，而客戶也期待我們必須在產品上展現成本改善。

The next question is from Sandeep Deshpande from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Sandeep Deshpande。

Two quick questions, if I may. Firstly, as you're showing progress now in China, you've taken some share in China in the more recent auctions. Have you seen any progress with your updated products in the United States where -- which is the other region where you had a significant change in market share over the last few years?

如果可以的話，兩個簡短問題。第一，既然你們現在在中國展現進展，並且在近期的招標中取得了一些市占，你們是否在美國也看到你們更新後產品的進展？美國是你們過去幾年市占變化顯著的另一個地區。

And then secondly, on the gross margin in the mobile business. There clearly is a dent -- there is a hysteresis between your shipment of your ReefShark product and your revenue recognition of that ReefShark product. So I mean given that you are saying you're -- given where you are today in terms of shipping ReefShark-based products within your mobile business, where are you in terms of recognizing them in terms of your gross margin today?

第二，關於行動業務的毛利率。顯然，你們的 ReefShark 產品出貨與該 ReefShark 產品的營收認列之間存在落差——也就是有一種滯後效應。因此，我的意思是，考量你們所說的——以你們目前在行動業務中出貨以 ReefShark 為基礎的產品的情況來看，你們在毛利率層面對這些產品的認列進度目前到哪裡了？

Yes, thank you, Sandeep.

是的，謝謝你，Sandeep。

I will take -- same mix, yes, let's do this.

我會採用——相同的組合，是的，我們就這麼做。

So you take the gross margin part then. And yes, the U.S. market, I mean the good news is that these much-discussed headwinds in terms of market share and pricing, they have been quite well understood already since October last year when we, for the first time, started to talk about them because they relate to earlier things, earlier contracts, 2020 matters. We are actually pretty confident on the U.S. market situation. We have signed, as you have seen, 5-year 5G deals now with both T-Mobile and AT&T. And we also have to remember that Verizon continues to be a very big and important customer to us in many segment.

那麼你就先談毛利率的部分。是的，至於美國市場，我的意思是，好消息是，這些被廣泛討論、關於市占率與定價的逆風，其實自去年10月我們第一次開始談起時，就已經被相當充分地理解了，因為它們與更早之前的事情、較早的合約、2020年的事項有關。我們其實對美國市場的情勢相當有信心。我們已經如你所見，分別與T-Mobile與AT&T簽下了為期5年的5G合約。我們也必須記得，Verizon在許多領域仍然是我們非常大且重要的客戶。

And then the U.S. market is actually a lot more than these 3 large operators. There is a significant number of smaller operators that we are working with, and we are fairly confident in our position there. And on top of all of this, there is a growing enterprise market, private wireless market. And now as we have recently seen, there is a high likelihood that also the government-driven programs in terms of connectivity will increase going forward. So we have every reason to be optimistic about the U.S. market.

此外，美國市場其實遠不只這三大營運商。我們也與相當多的中小型營運商合作，對我們在那裡的地位也相當有信心。再加上，企業市場、私有無線市場正在成長。而且如我們近期所見，未來由政府推動、以連線為主的計畫也很可能會增加。因此，我們有充分理由對美國市場保持樂觀。

And when it comes to the Mobile Networks gross margin, before I touch upon the ReefShark shipments versus revenues, I just want to highlight once more that, remember, there are other factors as well that are important for the gross margin expansion and improvement that we've seen in the first half. And if we look at what Tommi and his team in Mobile Networks have done in 5G, the way we are producing and developing 5G is much more efficient today than it was just a year ago. Then of course, when we see the volumes are increasing, that will also impact our ability to improve the cost base in that product area.

至於行動網路（Mobile Networks）的毛利率，在我談到ReefShark出貨與營收認列之間的關係之前，我想再強調一次：請記得，還有其他因素也對我們上半年看到的毛利率擴張與改善很重要。如果我們看Tommi與他在行動網路團隊在5G方面所做的事情，我們現在生產與開發5G的效率，比一年前高出許多。當然，當我們看到出貨量增加時，也會影響我們在該產品領域改善成本基礎的能力。

In addition, that -- we have other areas in Mobile Networks, just like I mentioned about the services, that are impacting as well. When it comes to ReefShark, that's one part of the improvement and we said that there's about a 6-months delay between the shipment until we recognize that in our P&L. And I would say that, that's about the same today and it was a year ago. So you can use that as a rule of thumb and see about what is the relation between shipments and revenue cognition on ReefShark-based products.

此外——我們在行動網路還有其他領域，就像我提到服務那樣，也同樣在產生影響。就ReefShark而言，那是改善的一部分；我們也說過，從出貨到在損益表（P&L）中認列，大約有6個月的延遲。我會說，現在大致仍是如此，與一年前差不多。所以你可以把這當作一個經驗法則，用來判斷ReefShark相關產品的出貨與營收認列之間的關係。

The next question is from Sami Sarkamies from Nordea Markets.

下一個問題來自Nordea Markets的Sami Sarkamies。

My question would be on Mobile Networks where you're materially upgrading your margin assumptions. Can you explain what has surprised you on the upside this year and also why you have chosen not to move the goal post for '23, even though you will still materially benefit from a system-on-chip transition? And then maybe a follow-up, any reason why you couldn't get to Ericsson gross margin levels in Mobile Networks once you have completed the system-on-chip transition? I think they are at 44% excluding IPR revenues.

我的問題是關於行動網路，你們大幅上調了毛利率假設。能否說明今年有哪些超出預期的正面驚喜？以及為什麼你們選擇不調整2023年的目標，即使你們仍將從系統單晶片（system-on-chip）的轉換中獲得顯著效益？另外可能再追問一下：在完成系統單晶片轉換後，行動網路的毛利率為何不能達到愛立信（Ericsson）的水準？我認為他們在排除IPR收入後約為44%。

Thank you, Sami. If I start with that 2023, I think I actually already answered that question. Of course, we are pleased with our H1, even excluding the effect of some of the one-offs we've been talking about. The issues that are going to face us in the second half of the year, meaning that the typical seasonality that we have seen will be less pronounced this year and this is only 4 months since we published the '23 targets. So we do not feel that today is the right time to revisit them.

謝謝你，Sami。若我先談2023年，我想我其實已經回答過這個問題了。當然，我們對上半年（H1）的表現感到滿意，即使不計入我們一直在談的一些一次性因素。今年下半年我們將面臨的議題是：我們以往看到的典型季節性今年會不那麼明顯，而且距離我們公布2023年目標也才4個月。因此，我們認為現在不是重新檢視它們的適當時點。

Then when it comes to the Mobile Networks surprises, and then, Marco, you can then go deeper into the margins, if needed, but -- of course, one thing that has clearly changed in the last few months is the market itself. There is strong demand on the market. We have, as you saw, we upgraded also our market size, market growth forecast this year. Our product execution has been faster. We've been able to speed up there as Marco explained. And then on top of that, very good operational cost control. And here, I would say that the simplification of the operational model that we did where in the earlier setup, we had actually multiple, sometimes even 5, management team members being partially responsible for 1 Mobile Network deal. Now it's all in the Mobile Network business, and Tommi is fully responsible for that. So that is already showing its effects, positive effects.

接著談行動網路的正面驚喜——如果需要，Marco你可以再更深入談毛利率——當然，過去幾個月明顯改變的一件事是市場本身。市場需求強勁。我們也如你所見，上調了今年的市場規模與市場成長預測。我們的產品執行速度更快，正如Marco所解釋，我們能夠加速推進。此外，營運成本控管非常好。在這裡我會說，我們所做的營運模式簡化也發揮了作用：在先前的架構下，我們其實有多位、甚至有時多達5位管理團隊成員分別對同一個行動網路案子負部分責任。現在全部都歸在行動網路事業內，由Tommi全權負責。因此，這已經開始顯現其效果，正面的效果。

And just building on that, when it comes to the new operational model, it's extremely nice to see that each of the businesses have really taken that responsibility and focus on the cost, but also on a top line and seeing how can we improve the business. And we have totally different discussions today than we had before the new operational model, so I'm very pleased to see as well how that has landed.

再延伸補充一下，談到新的營運模式，很高興看到各個事業部都真正承擔起責任，聚焦於成本，也聚焦於營收，並思考如何改善業務。我們今天的討論內容，與新營運模式之前完全不同，所以我也很高興看到這個模式落地的成效。

The next question comes from Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自Raymond James的Simon Leopold。

I want to ask 2. One, I think is a quick one. The other one is a little bit more strategic. In terms of the quick one, with the award of the Chinese 700-megahertz project, I presume that's a little bit of a gross margin headwind. Could you help us understand how that particular project factors into your overall thinking, and if in fact, the assumption is correct?

我想問兩個問題。一個我想很快，另一個比較偏策略面。先談快的：關於拿下中國700MHz專案，我推測這對毛利率會有些逆風。你能否協助我們理解這個特定專案如何納入你們整體的思考之中，以及這個假設是否正確？

And then in terms of the strategic question, I want to get an understanding of your priorities, specifically in your optical business, given that you currently lag the sector leaders in technology and profitability. How do you address or solve those problems? Is your priority to close the product gap or the profitability gap? How can you do both?

接著是策略問題：我想了解你們的優先順序，特別是在光學業務方面，因為你們目前在技術與獲利能力上落後於產業領導者。你們要如何處理或解決這些問題？你們的優先順序是縮小產品差距，還是縮小獲利差距？你們如何同時做到兩者？

Okay. Just quickly, the China question, the effect on volumes and margins this year will be -- will not be material. We do not comment on margins on individual deals, but it is, of course, known that the Chinese market is highly competitive. And typically in these type of deals, the margin is lower in the beginning and then there is an opportunity to increase over time. But of course, 4% is 4%, it's not more. It's 19,200 base stations. So you have to put it into perspective. So it is not really material.

好的。先快速回答中國的問題：今年對出貨量與毛利率的影響將——不會是重大的。我們不評論單一交易的毛利率，但眾所周知，中國市場競爭非常激烈。通常在這類交易中，初期毛利率較低，之後有機會隨時間提升。但當然，4%就是4%，不會更多。這是19,200個基地台。所以你必須把它放在整體脈絡中看。因此它並不真正具有重大性。

Then, I mean, we are right now moving to the fifth generation of optical coherent technologies with the PSE-V architecture. We are seeing our technology competitiveness clearly increase. With this technology, we have optimized in a way the cost-to-performance ratio for the sweet spot of 400 gig and sometimes 600 gig connectivity in metro, regional and even long-distance networks. 800 gig can be implemented by 2x400 line card, but that's only a very small part, maybe 2% to 3% of the total demand at the moment. And that's why the full portfolio that we are now having with -- having launched PSE-V has greatly increased in competitiveness. And if and when there is then a phase where 800 with the direct implementation would become a mass market, we will certainly be there at the right time as well.

接著，我們目前正邁向第五代光學相干技術，採用PSE-V架構。我們看到自身的技術競爭力明顯提升。透過這項技術，我們以一種方式最佳化了成本與效能的比率，鎖定都會、區域，甚至長途網路中400G、以及有時600G連線的甜蜜點。800G可以透過2x400的線卡來實現，但那目前只占總需求非常小的一部分，可能只有2%到3%。因此，隨著我們推出PSE-V而形成的完整產品組合，競爭力已大幅提升。而如果、以及當未來800G以直接實作的方式進入大眾市場階段，我們也一定會在適當的時間點到位。

The next question is from Francois Bouvignies from UBS.

下一個問題來自UBS的Francois Bouvignies。

I have a follow-up on the 2023. So I know I understand that, Pekka, that you don't want to increase now because it's been only 4 months, and I totally understand that. I just wanted to understand the moving parts. So if we look at the full year '21, you already will have 10% to 12%; '23, you have 10% to 13%. If we look at -- this 10% to 12% already includes the headwinds of pricing, of Verizon, so something that possibly will be less of a headwind in the next 2 years.

我有一個關於2023年的追問。我知道、我理解你，Pekka，你不想現在上調，因為才過了4個月，我完全理解。我只是想了解其中的變動因素。如果我們看2021年全年，你們已經會有10%到12%；2023年，你們是10%到13%。如果我們看——這個10%到12%已經包含了定價與Verizon的逆風，所以這些在未來兩年可能會變成較小的逆風。

And then you have this AirScale, ReefShark benefit that would probably increase your cost -- improve your cost, sorry. Strong Network Infrastructure with structural demand with a positive mix if we look at your full year '23 guidance for operating margin for this division. And then you have the C-band in the U.S., which possibly with geographic mix. So my question is what -- is there anything that I missed? Or what kind of a headwind we should expect in the next 2 years that would offset negatively these drivers? Just trying to understand the moving parts, please.

然後你們還有AirScale、ReefShark帶來的效益，這可能會提高你們的成本——抱歉，是改善你們的成本。網路基礎設施（Network Infrastructure）也很強，結構性需求帶來正向組合，如果我們看你們對該事業部2023年全年營業利益率的指引。再來還有美國的C-band，可能也會帶來地理組合的影響。所以我的問題是：有沒有什麼我漏掉了？或者未來兩年我們應該預期哪些逆風，會在負面上抵銷這些驅動因素？只是想了解這些變動因素，謝謝。

Thank you, and I don't disagree with your facts, but again, H1 strong foundation boosted by certain one-offs. The component market situation will remain tight. There could be always surprises there. This will continue well into 2022. Some analysts are even saying -- this is not necessarily our estimate, but some are even saying that it will continue into 2023. So there is also -- even though we are seeing strong demand, there is also uncertainties there. So we just feel that this is not the right time. We are only 4 months into the execution of this strategy. We are still in the reset phase, and let's now focus on the day-to-day hard work and we do not want to speculate anything more on 2023.

謝謝你，我不否認你所陳述的事實，但再說一次，上半年強勁的基礎是受到某些一次性因素的提振。元件市場的情況仍將維持緊俏，這方面隨時都可能有意外狀況。這種情況將一路延續到 2022 年。甚至有些分析師表示——這不一定是我們的估計，但有些人甚至說會延續到 2023 年。因此，即使我們看到需求強勁，仍然存在不確定性。所以我們覺得現在不是合適的時機。我們執行這項策略才 4 個月。我們仍處於重置階段，現在就專注於日常的艱苦工作，我們不想再對 2023 年做更多揣測。

The next question is from Aleksander Peterc from Societe Generale CIB.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行 CIB 的 Aleksander Peterc。

Firstly, just on Network Infrastructure. If you look at the underlying businesses and the growth rates so far this year, could you comment whether you're gaining share in IP or in optical and in Fixed Access?

首先，關於網路基礎設施。如果你看今年迄今各項底層業務及其成長率，你能否評論一下你們是在 IP、光傳輸，還是固定接入方面取得市占率？

And the second, a small follow-up, just on the component situation, can you confirm that despite the tightness, you don't see any top line headwind in the current year from the component situation, i.e., no sale will be held back by the shortages?

第二個，小小的追問，關於元件供應情況，你能否確認儘管供應緊俏，你們並不認為今年會因元件問題而對營收造成逆風，也就是說，不會因缺料而延後出貨或銷售？

Okay. Thank you. If I take the component question, and, Marco, if you take the NI growth prospect question. I mean, as we have said, the component market is tight. And I think I said in -- after Q1 that you have to fight for your share every day, and that situation continues. We are on daily calls with many suppliers. We have been, for the most part, able to deal very well with this situation. But it actually is interestingly that we could grow even faster if there were more components available. But all this is included and assumed in our guidance. And of course, if it's any comfort as to regarding our ability to deal with the situation, as you saw, we upgraded our top line guidance by roughly EUR 1 billion. So it just shows that, yes, we are able to deliver. Then on top of that, I'm saying that it could even have been a bit more if there were more components available.

好的，謝謝。如果我先回答元件的問題，Marco 你來回答 NI 的成長前景問題。我的意思是，正如我們所說，元件市場很緊俏。我想我在——第一季之後提到過，你每天都必須為自己的份額而戰，而這種情況仍在持續。我們每天都與許多供應商通話。就大多數情況而言，我們一直能很好地應對這個局面。但有趣的是，如果有更多元件可用，我們其實可以成長得更快。不過，這些都已包含並反映在我們的指引之中。當然，如果這能讓大家對我們處理此情況的能力更安心一些，如你所見，我們把營收指引上調了約 10 億歐元。這就顯示，是的，我們有能力交付。除此之外，我也想說，如果元件供應更多，表現甚至可能還會再好一些。

And when it comes to the IP and Fixed Networks, these are the 2 areas, actually, where we have a technological advantage. We have, in the IP side, we've been gaining market shares in certain regions. And we see that we are actually taking -- getting closer to #1. In certain areas like Europe, we are #1 already. And definitely, the technological leadership is extremely important here. And this is one reason why we believe that in a tech -- high-tech industry, you have to have a very good focus on technology and securing that you are absolutely top-notch on technology side. And that's why we invest in R&D.

至於 IP 與固定網路，這兩個領域其實是我們具備技術優勢的地方。在 IP 方面，我們在某些地區一直在提升市占率。我們看到自己其實正在——更接近第一名。在某些地區，例如歐洲，我們已經是第一名。而且技術領先在這裡絕對至關重要。這也是我們相信在科技——高科技產業中，你必須非常聚焦於技術，並確保你在技術面絕對是一流的原因。因此我們投資於研發。

The same actually goes for Fixed Networks. So if you look, we are the only one that can offer 25-gig solutions in the fixed networks. And this has definitely shown as a very good sales pitch towards our customers. And especially when we see that in the connectivity, demand is increasing very heavily, not only because of the 5G but also because of the COVID situation and remote and flexible working solutions. So I would say that in both those areas, we are definitely seeing a positive development.

固定網路其實也是同樣的情況。所以如果你看，我們是唯一能在固定網路提供 25G 解決方案的廠商。這點確實已成為對客戶非常有力的銷售訴求。尤其是當我們看到連線需求大幅增加，不僅因為 5G，也因為 COVID 的情況，以及遠距與彈性工作的解決方案。我會說，在這兩個領域，我們確實都看到正向的發展。

And maybe just to add, I mean, just looking purely at that number, so our first half top line growth in IP Networks is 15%; in Optical Networks, 10%; and Fixed Networks, 37%. We are saying that the market growth is maybe 4% or something like that. There could be faster-growing pockets, yes. But with these numbers, I think it's absolutely clear that we are taking market share.

另外補充一下，如果純粹看數字，我們上半年在 IP Networks 的營收成長是 15%；Optical Networks 是 10%；Fixed Networks 是 37%。我們認為市場成長可能是 4% 左右。當然，可能有一些成長更快的細分領域。但以這些數字來看，我認為非常清楚我們正在取得市占率。

The next question is from Andrew Gardiner from Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Andrew Gardiner。

Sort of a follow-up to that last one really on Network Infrastructure. Just to the point that you were making, really, I mean you're talking about the 4% growth in the TAM for NI this year, yet qualitatively, you're sounding very bullish and yet you haven't upgraded the TAM. I think I can see, as you guys have said, you're clearly gaining market share. So 2-part question. One, why is there not a bit more upside to that TAM given the end market trends you're seeing? And in terms of market share, you guys are showing real strength in fixed in terms of the year-on-year growth, submarine as well, perhaps to a slightly lesser extent in optical, but still good growth. Clearly, you've got a major competitor there in Huawei. Can you talk about the trade-war backdrop and how that -- this has been sort of obviously ongoing for a number of years now. Do you feel like the share gains that you're seeing now are -- you're being boosted by that effect in many of these markets, particularly outside of China?

算是延續上一題，仍然關於網路基礎設施。就你剛才提到的重點來說，我的意思是，你們談到今年 NI 的 TAM 成長 4%，但從質性描述上，你們聽起來非常樂觀，卻沒有上調 TAM。我想我能理解，正如你們所說，你們顯然正在提升市占率。所以是兩部分的問題。第一，鑑於你們看到的終端市場趨勢，為什麼 TAM 沒有更多上行空間？第二，關於市占率，你們在固定網路的年增成長非常強，海纜也很強，光傳輸可能稍弱一些但仍有不錯成長。顯然你們有一個主要競爭對手是華為。你能談談貿易戰的背景，以及——這件事顯然已持續好幾年。你們是否覺得目前看到的市占提升——在許多市場、特別是中國以外市場，是否受到這個因素的推動？

Yes, I don't think those things that you referred to that they would have, at least so far, been a big needle-mover in IP, optical or Fixed Networks. There has been occasional tenders or occasional situations where that could have played into it, but not in any big way. This really comes from our technology competitiveness. That is it.

是的，我不認為你提到的那些因素，至少到目前為止，會在 IP、光傳輸或固定網路方面造成很大的影響。偶爾會有一些標案或某些情境可能會受到影響，但並不是以很大的方式。這真的來自於我們的技術競爭力。就是這樣。

And then when it comes to the market size estimates. I think your question is fair. We have not yet seen what the -- and the markets analyst houses are saying about Q2. We don't have those numbers available yet. So let's see what they have said then we have to see if we keep this or if there is reason to change. But we are clearly seeing strength in this market.

至於市場規模的估計，我認為你的問題很合理。我們還沒有看到——市場分析機構對第二季的看法。我們目前還沒有那些數字。所以先看看他們怎麼說，然後我們再看是否維持這個估計，或是否有理由調整。但我們確實清楚看到這個市場的強勁動能。

The next question is from Daniel Djurberg from Handelsbanken.

下一個問題來自 Handelsbanken 的 Daniel Djurberg。

Congrats to a solid report. My question has mainly been asked already, but I could ask you about Japan perhaps. I think you mentioned in Q1 that it was a little bit product -- temporary product differences to your key components or Ericsson that had super-strong first half. Can you comment a little bit on the Japanese market outlook? And also I guess we saw APAC ex Greater China, I mean, was down 4% in the quarter.

恭喜你們交出一份穩健的報告。我的問題大多已經被問過了，但我或許可以問一下日本。我記得你們在第一季提到，日本那邊有一些產品——與你們關鍵元件相關的暫時性產品差異，或是 Ericsson 上半年表現非常強。你能否稍微評論一下日本市場的展望？另外我想我們也看到，亞太（不含大中華區）在本季下滑了 4%。

Yes, that was really -- APAC and Japan was the only market which was slightly down. We had 6 or 7 markets where we're growing. The primary country that affected that slightly negative number, remember, it was only slightly negative, was Korea. It was not Japan. The picture in Japan remains strong, and the same statement as we made after Q1 remains that there seem to be certain timing differences between -- in operators' plans between our -- in a way, our regions in 5G and then in some of our competitors' regions. And that is our understanding as to why you may have seen some differences in statements about growth in Japan.

是的，確實——亞太與日本是唯一略為下滑的市場。我們有 6 或 7 個市場在成長。造成那個略為負成長數字的主要國家——請記得，那只是略為負成長——是韓國，不是日本。日本的情況仍然強勁，而我們在第一季後所做的同樣說法仍然成立：看起來在營運商的計畫上——在某種程度上，我們在 5G 的區域與部分競爭對手的區域之間，似乎存在一些時點差異。這就是我們對於為何你可能會看到日本成長表述有所差異的理解。

And just building on that, remember that we are a customer -- or supplier to all top CSPs in Japan as well.

另外延伸補充一下，請記得我們也是日本所有主要 CSP 的客戶——或供應商。

The next question is from Robert Sanders from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Robert Sanders。

Just really one question, which is just about your commentary around North America on share loss and price erosion in the second half. I was just wondering if you thought that might continue into the first half because obviously with you saying a lot of the first half is temporary or onetime effects, there could be a difficult comparison to the first half of '22. So I just want to be certain that you are still on a growth path in the first half of '22 based on what you can see today.

其實就一個問題，關於你們對北美在下半年市占流失與價格侵蝕的評論。我想知道你們是否認為這可能會延續到上半年，因為顯然你們說上半年有很多是暫時或一次性因素，這可能會讓 2022 年上半年面臨較難的比較基期。所以我只是想確認，基於你們今天所看到的情況，你們在 2022 年上半年仍然是在成長軌道上。

Yes, thank you. I mean as I said, those things are related to mostly events before this year. So the effect on the second half will be stronger than in the first half, but that should really then be it for the most part. But we have not given, of course, 2022 guidance. I referred to what I said earlier that we remain kind of overall optimistic and confident on the North American market. There are no new headwinds, if you will, that would have surfaced after we first started to talk about this thing in October last year.

是的，謝謝。我的意思是，正如我所說，那些事情多半與今年之前的事件有關。因此對下半年的影響會比上半年更強，但之後大致上就會告一段落。不過我們當然還沒有提供 2022 年的指引。我只是呼應我先前說過的，我們對北美市場整體仍然保持某種程度的樂觀與信心。若你這麼說的話，並沒有在我們去年 10 月首次開始談這件事之後，又出現任何新的逆風。

The next question is from Richard Kramer from Arete Research.

下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Richard Kramer。

One for Pekka, one for Marco. Pekka, you talked about your conversion rate and people have asked you about market share. But inside your installed base, clearly, a lot of customers were shared with Huawei. So I'd like to know, and I'm certain that it's something you track, to what extent do you think your share gains are some sort of dividend which is coming in the wake of various carriers being obliged to exclude Huawei from many markets? How much do you think of the market share gains have come directly as a result of that?

一個給 Pekka，一個給 Marco。Pekka，你談到了你們的轉換率，也有人問你們的市占率。但在你們的已安裝基礎內，顯然有不少客戶是與華為共享的。所以我想知道，而且我確信這是你們會追蹤的，你認為你們的市占提升在多大程度上是某種「紅利」，也就是在各家電信商被迫在許多市場排除華為之後所帶來的？你認為市占提升有多少是直接因為這個原因？

And then for Marco, maybe you could give us a little insight into the licensing pipeline. Was the renewal with Samsung including cellular standard central patents? Because it's not entirely clear from that. And do you have any material renewals coming up in the next year or 2 that could change the outlook in terms of the run rate you've laid out for the licensing business?

然後給 Marco，也許你可以讓我們稍微了解一下授權的管線。與三星的續約是否包含蜂巢式通訊標準的核心專利？因為從那點來看並不完全清楚。另外，未來 1 到 2 年內是否有任何重大續約可能發生，進而改變你為授權業務所提出的年化運行率（run rate）展望？

Yes, thank you. When we look at the Mobile Network market share, our estimate continues to be for this year that it would be 25% to 27%, excluding China. That is slightly lower than what we had last year. And as we said, we now expect and target that the conversion rate would stabilize, indicating that there would not be further market share losses. And hopefully, we will then start winning back customers and we have already done that now in China and in Canada. So there is -- there are cases, as you know, and as we have discussed, where operators for various, sometimes politically-driven reasons, have decided to change supply -- switch suppliers. And we have already estimated and I can confirm that, that we have won approximately 50% of such opportunities. But we are not publicly quantifying that, how much that would be in terms of revenue or margin.

是的，謝謝。當我們看行動網路（Mobile Network）的市占率時，我們今年的估計仍為 25% 到 27%，不含中國。這比我們去年略低一些。正如我們所說，我們現在預期並以此為目標，轉換率將趨於穩定，這表示不會再有進一步的市占流失。並且希望之後我們會開始贏回客戶，而我們現在已經在中國與加拿大做到這點。所以確實存在——如你所知、也如我們討論過的——一些案例，營運商因各種原因、有時是政治驅動的原因，決定改變供應——更換供應商。我們先前已估計，而且我可以確認，我們在這類機會中約贏得了 50%。但我們不會對外公開量化這在營收或毛利方面會是多少。

And when it comes to the pipeline in technologies, we basically have renewals continuously in different scales. And most of our agreements and what comes to also when the renewal is happening are confidential. But you could calculate that we have always a handful of renewals every year that we negotiate with, just like you've seen now that OPPO is, at the moment, on the table. So these are coming continuously. And this is normal business for technologies. So -- and when it comes to Samsung deal we signed with them, it is covering a wide area of video systems and so forth. And we're quite happy with that system or that agreement as well.

至於技術授權的管線，我們基本上在不同規模上持續有續約。大多數協議，以及續約發生的時間點，都是保密的。但你可以推算，我們每年總是會有少數幾個續約在談判，就像你現在看到 OPPO 目前正在桌上談的一樣。所以這些會持續出現。這是技術業務的正常運作。至於我們與三星簽的協議，它涵蓋了廣泛的影音系統等領域。我們對那個系統或那份協議也相當滿意。

The next question is from Frank Maaø from DNB.

下一個問題來自 DNB 的 Frank Maaø。

Congrats on a great quarter here. Most of my questions have been answered, but I want to just follow up on the market share situation, especially in Mobile Networks outside of the U.S. Now one thing is, of course, that in some countries, operators have been legally obliged to exclude Huawei or the Chinese vendors in general, but also there's a quite difficult chip supply situation for the market leader, potentially leading to inevitable loss of competitiveness. And as we have seen, Ericsson now also starting to win contracts in Chinese vendors' strongholds such as Malaysia for 5G and national network there. Now that is not due to legal obligations to exclude Huawei. Now to what extent are you seeing pipeline boost or contract wins that give you confidence with regards to being able to grow faster than the market also in Mobile Networks, especially in the light of these, yes, developments?

恭喜本季表現非常出色。我的大部分問題都已經得到回答，但我想就市占情況再追問一下，特別是美國以外的行動網路。當然，在一些國家，營運商依法必須排除華為或一般所稱的中國供應商；但同時，市場領導者也面臨相當困難的晶片供應情況，可能導致不可避免的競爭力下降。而我們也看到，Ericsson 現在開始在中國供應商的強勢地盤（例如馬來西亞的 5G 與全國網路）贏得合約。那並不是因為法律義務要排除華為。那麼，基於這些發展，你們在多大程度上看到管線增強或合約得標，讓你們有信心在行動網路上也能比市場成長更快？

Yes, look, as I said, we are estimating 25% to 27%, excluding China, this year and the market share decline seems now to have been stopped. And as I said earlier, we have -- on the swap cases, we have won approximately 50%. There have been occasional cases where some of our competitors have had delivery difficulties because of various reasons. I think I said earlier that they have not been -- I think I commented, Network Infrastructure business, I said that they would not have been kind of big needle-movers, the same thing in Mobile Networks. So we do not want to speculate on our competitors' ability to buy components. They have -- each and every one of us have to comment our own business. We do not want to comment on our competitors. We focus on our products, and we are highly confident that after the -- especially after the recent launches, we have regained so much of our product competitiveness that we are able to take care of our market share.

是的，你看，如我所說，我們今年估計不含中國為 25% 到 27%，而市占下滑現在看起來已經停止。並且如我先前所說，在更換供應商的案例中，我們約贏得了 50%。確實偶爾會有一些案例，我們的某些競爭對手因各種原因出現交付困難。我想我先前也說過——我在網路基礎設施（Network Infrastructure）業務那邊提到——這些不會是那種能大幅改變局面的因素，在行動網路也是一樣。因此，我們不想臆測競爭對手採購零組件的能力。他們——我們每一家公司都應該只評論自己的業務。我們不評論競爭對手。我們專注於我們的產品，而且我們非常有信心，尤其在近期產品推出之後，我們已恢復了相當多的產品競爭力，足以維持我們的市占率。

And now we have the conversion rate that we published is now slightly above 90%. And we also stated that we are optimistic about the development there, and we could see some improvements there going forward.

而且我們公布的轉換率目前略高於 90%。我們也表示對其發展感到樂觀，並且未來可能會看到一些改善。

The final question comes from Stefan Slowinski from Exane BNP Paribas.

最後一個問題來自 Exane BNP Paribas 的 Stefan Slowinski。

Yes, great. Marco, just a question for you on cash flow. If I look at the last 4 quarters, you had EUR 2.3 billion of cash flow positive each quarter despite presumably some headwinds in terms of unwinding of factoring and the lower gross margins. Were there any significant one-offs within those 12 months that benefited free cash flow? And when we look forward and we look at the improvements that are still to come in terms of gross margins and renewing some of those licensing deals, shouldn't we see that cash generation improve?

好的，很好。Marco，我想問你一個關於現金流的問題。如果我看過去 4 個季度，你每個季度都有 23 億歐元的正向現金流，儘管看起來應該有一些逆風，例如保理（factoring）回轉以及較低的毛利率。在這 12 個月內，是否有任何顯著的一次性因素（one-offs）有利於自由現金流？而往前看，隨著毛利率仍有改善空間，以及續約部分授權合約，難道我們不應該看到現金創造能力提升嗎？

Thank you. Yes, you are totally correct. We have had very good cash collection. And if you look especially quarter 1, that we had extremely good cash collection and came from accounts receivables. And that always when you have a big swings in working capital, these are a little bit like one-offs because you get the new level and this is exactly what happened. So and that's why the rolling 12 is very good because we're comparing very -- quite good second half last year and very good first half of this year. Working capital is always a swing factor.

謝謝。是的，你完全正確。我們的現金回收非常好。尤其如果你看第一季，我們的現金回收極佳，主要來自應收帳款。當營運資金出現大幅波動時，這些有點像一次性因素，因為你會到達一個新的水準，而這正是所發生的情況。所以這也是為什麼過去 12 個月滾動數據非常好，因為我們是在比較——去年下半年相當不錯，以及今年上半年非常好。營運資金一向是波動因素。

And now we've said going forward that we are aiming to increase our inventories specifically on the semiconductor side, as we've seen that supply is quite tight, and it's good to have a little bit more buffers here. Otherwise, in longer term, of course, I would say that our EBIT is pretty good measurement where our cash flow should land because our depreciations and CapEx are quite close to each other. And of course, when you have a big hikes in net sales, like we normally have seen in the past, in the fourth quarter that will also increase your accounts receivables, but normal development is basically based on what is our profit development.

而且我們也說過，往前看，我們的目標是增加庫存，特別是在半導體方面，因為我們看到供應相當吃緊，因此多一些緩衝是好的。除此之外，長期來看，我會說 EBIT 是衡量我們現金流應落點的相當好指標，因為折舊與資本支出（CapEx）彼此相當接近。當然，當淨銷售額大幅攀升時——就像我們過去通常在第四季看到的——也會增加應收帳款，但正常的發展基本上取決於我們的獲利發展。

That's great. Thank you, Stefan, and thank you to Marco and Pekka. Thank you everyone for your questions today. And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's call. I would like to remind you that during the call, we have made a number of forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may, therefore, differ materially from the results currently expected. Factors that could cause such differences can be both external as well as internal operating factors. We have identified these risks in more detail in the section titled Operating and financial review and Prospects-Risk factors of our 2020 annual report on Form 20-F as well as other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

太好了。謝謝你，Stefan，也謝謝 Marco 與 Pekka。也謝謝各位今天的提問。各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。我想提醒各位，在本次電話會議中，我們做出了一些前瞻性陳述，涉及風險與不確定性。因此，實際結果可能與目前預期的結果有重大差異。可能造成此類差異的因素，既可能是外部因素，也可能是內部營運因素。我們已在向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2020 年 Form 20-F 年報中「營運與財務回顧」以及「展望—風險因素」章節，以及其他申報文件中，更詳細地識別了這些風險。

With that, thank you very much for joining us, and enjoy the rest of your day. Goodbye.

就此，再次非常感謝各位參與，祝各位今天剩餘時間愉快。再見。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。本次會議現已結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報。您現在可以中斷連線。