NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the NMI Holdings second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 NMI Holdings 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意此通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. John Swenson of management. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議轉交給管理階層的 John Swenson 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to the 2024 second-quarter conference call for National MI. I'm John Swenson, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Joining us on the call today are Brad Shuster, Executive Chairman; Adam Pollitzer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Aurora Swithenbank, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，接線生。下午好，歡迎參加全國 MI 2024 年第二季電話會議。我是約翰‧斯文森 (John Swenson)，投資者關係與財務部副總裁。今天加入我們電話會議的有執行主席布拉德舒斯特 (Brad Shuster)； Adam Pollitzer，總裁兼執行長；以及我們的財務長 Aurora Swithenbank。

Financial results for the quarter were released after the close today. The press release may be accessed on NMI's website located at nationalmi.com under the Investors tab. During the course of this call, we may make comments about our expectations for the future. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements.

該季度的財務業績於今天收盤後發布。新聞稿可在 NMI 網站Nationalmi.com 的「投資者」標籤下存取。在這次電話會議期間，我們可能會就我們對未來的期望發表評論。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中所包含的結果有重大差異。

Additional information about the factors that could cause actual results or trends to differ materially from those discussed on the call can be found on our website or through our regulatory filings with the SEC. If and to the extent the company makes forward-looking statements, we do not undertake any obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent developments.

有關可能導致實際結果或趨勢與電話會議中討論的結果或趨勢存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，可以在我們的網站或透過我們向 SEC 提交的監管文件中找到。如果公司做出前瞻性陳述，我們不承擔任何義務在未來根據後續發展更新這些陳述。

Further, no one should rely on the fact that the guidance of such statements is current at any time other than the time of this call. Also note that on this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP measures. In today's press release and on our website, we provided a reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable measures under GAAP.

此外，任何人都不應依賴這樣的事實：此類聲明的指導在本次電話會議之外的任何時間都是最新的。另請注意，在本次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計原則措施。在今天的新聞稿和我們的網站上，我們提供了這些衡量標準與公認會計準則下最可比衡量標準的調節表。

Now I'll turn the call over to Brad.

現在我將把電話轉給布拉德。

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to report that in the second quarter, National MI again delivered strong operating performance, continued growth in our insured portfolio, and record financial results.

謝謝約翰，大家下午好。我很高興地向大家報告，第二季度，National MI 再次實現了強勁的營運業績，我們的保險組合持續成長，並創下了創紀錄的財務業績。

We also achieved a notable milestone, closing the second quarter with a record $203.5 billion of high-quality, high-performing insurance-in-force. It's the first quarter our insured portfolio has surpassed $200 billion. And the size and strength of our portfolio today serves to highlight the consistent and significant success we've been delivering for so long.

我們也實現了一個顯著的里程碑，第二季結束時，高品質、高效能的有效保險金額達到創紀錄的 2,035 億美元。這是我們的保險投資組合首次超過 2000 億美元。今天我們投資組合的規模和實力凸顯了我們長期以來所取得的持續而重大的成功。

National MI was formed with a goal to provide a differentiated commitment and standard of service and a clear vision as to how we should engage in the market to drive value for our borrowers, our lender customers, our employees, and our shareholders. And it's remarkable to reflect on all that we have achieved to date.

National MI 的成立目標是提供差異化的承諾和服務標準，以及我們應如何參與市場，為借款人、貸方客戶、員工和股東創造價值的清晰願景。反思我們迄今為止所取得的一切成就是非常了不起的。

We've helped over 1.8 million borrowers gain access to a mortgage and open the door to affordable and sustainable homeownership in communities across the country. We've established a broadly diversified national customer franchise serving over 1,500 lenders from a foundation of partnership, trust, and innovation.

我們已幫助超過 180 萬借款人獲得抵押貸款，並為全國各地社區的負擔得起且可持續的住房所有權打開了大門。我們以合作、信任和創新為基礎，建立了廣泛多元化的全國客戶群，為 1,500 多家貸方提供服務。

We've attracted a talented, dedicated team who drive our success every day and cultivated a culture of collaboration, integrity, and performance. And we have consistently outperformed, delivering exceptionally strong operating and financial results quarter after quarter.

我們吸引了一支才華橫溢、敬業的團隊，他們每天都在推動我們取得成功，並培養了協作、誠信和績效的文化。我們的業績一直表現出色，每季都取得了異常強勁的營運和財務業績。

We are leading the private mortgage insurance industry with discipline and distinction. And I am as excited as I've ever been about the opportunity that we have to continue to outperform as we go forward.

我們以紀律和卓越的態度引領私人抵押貸款保險行業。我對我們在前進過程中必須繼續表現出色的機會感到一如既往的興奮。

With that, let me turn it over to Adam.

那麼，讓我把它交給亞當。

Thank you, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm delighted to talk to you today as I share Brad's excitement about our milestone success and his confidence in the opportunity we have as we look ahead. I'm also pleased to welcome Aurora Swithenbank as our new CFO.

謝謝布拉德，大家下午好。我很高興今天與您交談，因為我與 Brad 一樣對我們里程碑式的成功感到興奮，並且對我們展望未來所擁有的機會充滿信心。我還很高興歡迎奧羅拉瑞士銀行 (Aurora Swithenbank) 擔任我們的新任財務長。

Aurora brings a wealth of experience and proven track record as a senior finance leader to National MI. And you'll have an opportunity to get to know her going forward. Now to discuss the second quarter where we continued to outperform, delivering significant new business production, strong growth in our insured portfolio, and record financial results.

Aurora 為 National MI 帶來了作為高級財務領導者的豐富經驗和良好業績記錄。今後您將有機會了解她。現在討論第二季度，我們繼續表現出色，實現了顯著的新業務生產，我們的保險投資組合強勁增長，並創下了創紀錄的財務業績。

We generated $12.5 billion of NIW volume and ended the period with a record $203.5 billion of high-quality, high-performing primary insurance-in-force. Total revenue in the second quarter was a record $162.1 million. GAAP net income was a record $92.1 million or $1.13 per diluted share. And adjusted net income was a record $97.6 million or $1.20 per diluted share, up 11% compared to the first quarter and 26% compared to the second quarter of 2023.

我們創造了 125 億美元的國家利益豁免 (NIW) 金額，並以創紀錄的 2,035 億美元優質、高性能的有效主要保險結束了這段時期。第二季總營收達到創紀錄的 1.621 億美元。GAAP 淨利潤達到創紀錄的 9,210 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.13 美元。調整後淨利達到創紀錄的 9,760 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.20 美元，較第一季成長 11%，較 2023 年第二季成長 26%。

GAAP return on equity was 18.3% for the quarter, and adjusted ROE was 19.4%. Overall, we had an exceptionally strong quarter and are confident as we look ahead. The macro environment and housing market have remained resilient in the face of elevated interest rates.

本季 GAAP 股本回報率為 18.3%，調整後 ROE 為 19.4%。總體而言，我們度過了一個異常強勁的季度，並且對未來充滿信心。面對利率上升，宏觀環境和房地產市場仍保持彈性。

Our lender customers and their borrowers continue to rely on us in size for critical downpayment support. And we see an attractive and sustained new business opportunity fueled by long-term secular trends. We have an exceptionally high-quality insured portfolio, and our credit performance continues to stand ahead.

我們的貸方客戶及其借款人繼續依賴我們的規模來提供關鍵的首付支援。我們看到了由長期趨勢推動的有吸引力且持續的新商機。我們擁有極其優質的保險投資組合，並且我們的信用表現繼續保持領先。

Our persistency remains well above historical trends and when paired with our strong NIW volume, has helped to drive consistent growth and embedded value gains in our insured book. And we continue to manage our expenses and capital position with discipline and efficiency, building a robust balance sheet that's supported by the significant earnings power of our platform.

我們的持續性仍然遠高於歷史趨勢，與我們強大的 NIW 數量相結合，有助於推動我們保險帳簿的持續成長和內含價值收益。我們繼續以紀律和效率管理我們的開支和資本狀況，在我們平台的巨大盈利能力的支持下建立穩健的資產負債表。

Notwithstanding these strong positives, however, macro risks do remain. And we've maintained a proactive stance with respect to our pricing, risk selection, and reinsurance decisioning. It's an approach that has served us well and continues to be the prudent and appropriate course.

然而，儘管有這些強勁的積極因素，宏觀風險仍然存在。我們在定價、風險選擇和再保險決策方面一直保持積極主動的立場。這種方法對我們很有幫助，而且仍然是審慎而適當的做法。

More broadly, we've been encouraged by the continued discipline that we see across the private MI market. Underwriting standards remain rigorous, and the pricing environment remains balanced and constructive. Overall, we had a terrific quarter, delivering strong operating performance, continued growth in our insured portfolio, and record financial results.

更廣泛地說，我們對整個私人 MI 市場持續的紀律感到鼓舞。承保標準仍然嚴格，定價環境保持平衡和建設性。總體而言，我們度過了一個出色的季度，實現了強勁的營運業績，保險投資組合持續成長，並創下了創紀錄的財務業績。

Looking ahead, we're well positioned to continue to serve our customers and their borrowers, invest in our employees and their success, drive growth in our high-quality insured portfolio, and deliver through the cycle growth, returns, and value for our shareholders.

展望未來，我們有能力繼續為我們的客戶及其借款人提供服務，投資於我們的員工及其成功，推動我們高品質保險投資組合的成長，並為我們的股東提供整個週期的成長、回報和價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to Aurora.

有了這個，我就把它交給奧羅拉。

Thank you, Adam. I'm excited to join National MI. I am pleased to report that we achieved record financial results in the second quarter, with significant new business production, strong growth in our high-quality insured portfolio, record top-line performance, favorable credit experience, continued expense efficiency, and record net income and earnings per share.

謝謝你，亞當。我很高興加入國家 MI。我很高興地向大家報告，我們在第二季度取得了創紀錄的財務業績，新業務產量顯著，優質保險投資組合強勁增長，創紀錄的營收業績，良好的信貸體驗，持續的費用效率以及創紀錄的淨利和每股盈餘。

Total revenue in the second quarter was a record $162.1 million. Adjusted net income was a record $97.6 million or $1.20 per diluted share, and adjusted return on equity was 19.4%. We generated $12.5 billion of NIW, and our primary insurance-in-force grew to $203.5 billion, up 2.1% from the end of the first quarter and 6.4% compared to the second quarter of 2023.

第二季總營收達到創紀錄的 1.621 億美元。調整後淨利達到創紀錄的 9,760 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.20 美元，調整後股本回報率為 19.4%。我們產生了 125 億美元的國家利益豁免，我們的有效主要保險增長至 2035 億美元，比第一季末增長 2.1%，比 2023 年第二季度增長 6.4%。

12-month persistency was 85.4% in the second quarter compared to 85.8% in the first quarter. Persistency remains well above historical trend and continues to serve as an important driver of growth and embedded value in our insured portfolio.

第二季的 12 個月持續率為 85.4%，而第一季為 85.8%。持續性仍遠高於歷史趨勢，並持續成為我們保險投資組合成長和內含價值的重要驅動力。

Net premiums earned in the second quarter were a record $141.2 million, compared to $136.7 million in the first quarter and $126 million in the second quarter of 2023. Net yield for the quarter was 28 basis points, up from 27.6 basis points in the first quarter.

第二季淨保費收入達到創紀錄的 1.412 億美元，而 2023 年第一季為 1.367 億美元，第二季為 1.26 億美元。本季淨收益率為 28 個基點，高於第一季的 27.6 個基點。

Core yield, which excludes the cost of our reinsurance coverage and the contribution from cancellation earnings was 34.3 basis points, up from 34.1 basis points in the first quarter. Investment income was $20.7 million in the second quarter compared to $19.4 million in the first quarter. We saw continued growth in investment income during the period as we deployed new cash flows and reinvested rolling maturities at favorable new money rates.

核心收益率（不包括再保險成本和取消收益的貢獻）為 34.3 個基點，高於第一季的 34.1 個基點。第二季投資收益為 2,070 萬美元，而第一季投資收益為 1,940 萬美元。在此期間，我們部署了新的現金流並以有利的新貨幣利率對滾動期限進行再投資，投資收入持續成長。

Total revenue was a record $162.1 million in the second quarter, up 3.8% compared to the first quarter and 13.6% compared to the second quarter of 2023. Underwriting and operating expenses were $28.3 million in the second quarter compared to $29.8 million in the first quarter.

第二季總營收達到創紀錄的 1.621 億美元，較第一季成長 3.8%，較 2023 年第二季成長 13.6%。第二季的承保和營運費用為 2,830 萬美元，而第一季為 2,980 萬美元。

Our expense ratio was a record low 20.1% in the quarter, highlighting the significant operating leverage embedded in our business and the success we've achieved in efficiently managing our cost base. We have long signaled our expectation to achieve and sustain a low to mid-20s expense ratio and are proud to be delivering on this goal.

本季我們的費用率創歷史新低 20.1%，凸顯了我們業務中蘊藏的巨大營運槓桿以及我們在有效管理成本基礎方面的成功。我們長期以來一直表示，我們期望實現並維持 20 多歲左右的低至 20 多歲的費用比率，並為實現這一目標感到自豪。

We have a uniquely high-quality insured portfolio, and our credit performance continues to stand ahead. We had 4,904 defaults at June 30 compared to 5,109 at March 31. And our default rate declined to 76 basis points at quarter-end. Claims expense in the second quarter was $276,000 compared to $3.7 million in the first quarter.

我們擁有獨特的高品質保險組合，我們的信用表現繼續保持領先。截至 6 月 30 日，我們有 4,904 起違約事件，而 3 月 31 日為 5,109 起。季度末我們的違約率下降至 76 個基點。第二季的索賠費用為 276,000 美元，而第一季的索賠費用為 370 萬美元。

Interest expense was $14.7 million compared to $8 million in the first quarter. Interest expense in the second quarter included $7 million of nonrecurring costs incurred in connection with the successful refinancing of our senior notes and revolving credit facility. GAAP net income was a record $92.1 million or $1.13 per share -- per diluted share.

利息支出為 1,470 萬美元，而第一季為 800 萬美元。第二季的利息支出包括因我們的優先票據和循環信貸額度的成功再融資而產生的 700 萬美元的非經常性成本。GAAP 淨利潤達到創紀錄的 9,210 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.13 美元。

Adjusted net income, which excludes costs incurred in connection with our debt refinancing, was a record $97.6 million or $1.20 per diluted share. That's up 10.7% compared to the first quarter and 25.9% compared to the second quarter of 2023. Total cash and investments were $2.6 billion at quarter-end, including $149 million of cash and investments at the holding company.

調整後淨利（不包括與債務再融資相關的成本）達到創紀錄的 9,760 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.20 美元。與 2023 年第一季相比成長 10.7%，與第二季相比成長 25.9%。截至季末，現金和投資總額為 26 億美元，其中控股公司的現金和投資為 1.49 億美元。

In May, we completed the refinancing of our outstanding debt issuing $425 million of five-year senior unsecured notes and renewing our $250 million five-year revolving credit facility on incrementally favorable terms.

5 月份，我們完成了未償債務的再融資，發行了 4.25 億美元的五年期高級無抵押票據，並以逐步優惠的條件續簽了 2.5 億美元的五年期循環信貸安排。

We're pleased with the success that we've achieved in the market. Our refinancing was leverage neutral, and we lowered our cost of debt capital from [7.38%] from the notes we redeemed to 6% with this issuance. We expect to save approximately $3.5 million in interest expense annually with the success of this deal.

我們對在市場上的成功感到高興。我們的再融資是槓桿中性的，我們將本次發行的債務資本成本從我們贖回的票據的[7.38%]降低到6%。透過此次交易的成功，我們預計每年可節省約 350 萬美元的利息支出。

Shareholders' equity as of June 30 was $2 billion, and book value per share was $25.65. Book value per share, excluding the impact of net unrealized gains and losses in the investment portfolio, was $27.54. That's up 4.2% compared to the first quarter and 17.1% compared to the second quarter of last year.

截至 6 月 30 日，股東權益為 20 億美元，每股帳面價值為 25.65 美元。每股帳面價值（不包括投資組合中未實現淨損益的影響）為 27.54 美元。與第一季相比成長 4.2%，與去年第二季相比成長 17.1%。

In the second quarter, we repurchased $26.8 million of common stock, retiring 844,000 shares at an average price of $31.79. As of June 30, we had $124.9 million of repurchase capacity remaining under our existing program. At quarter-end, we reported total available assets under PMIERs of $2.8 billion and risk-based required assets of $1.7 billion. Excess available assets were $1.2 billion.

第二季度，我們回購了 2,680 萬美元的普通股，以 31.79 美元的平均價格回購了 844,000 股。截至 6 月 30 日，我們現有計畫下剩餘的回購能力為 1.249 億美元。截至季末，我們報告 PMIER 下的可用資產總額為 28 億美元，基於風險的所需資產為 17 億美元。剩餘可用資產為 12 億美元。

Overall, we delivered standout financial results during the quarter, with strong growth in our high-quality insured portfolio and record top-line performance, favorable credit experience, and continued expense efficiency, driving record bottom-line profitability and strong returns.

總體而言，我們在本季度取得了出色的財務業績，高品質的保險投資組合強勁增長，創紀錄的營收業績，良好的信貸體驗以及持續的費用效率，推動創紀錄的底線盈利能力和強勁的回報。

With that, let me turn it back to Adam.

說到這裡，讓我把話題轉回亞當身上。

Thank you, Aurora. We had a terrific quarter, once again delivering significant new business production, strong growth in our insured portfolio, and record financial performance.

謝謝你，奧羅拉。我們度過了一個出色的季度，再次實現了顯著的新業務生產、保險投資組合的強勁增長以及創紀錄的財務業績。

Looking ahead, we're confident, we have a strong customer franchise, a talented team that's driving us forward every day, an exceptionally high-quality book covered by a comprehensive set of risk transfer solutions, a robust balance sheet, and the significant earnings power of our platform. We are leading the MI market with discipline and distinction and are well positioned to continue delivering differentiated growth, returns, and value for our shareholders.

展望未來，我們充滿信心，我們擁有強大的客戶群、每天推動我們前進的才華橫溢的團隊、包含一整套風險轉移解決方案的高質量書籍、穩健的資產負債表以及可觀的收益我們平台的力量。我們憑藉紀律和卓越優勢引領 MI 市場，並處於有利地位，能夠繼續為股東提供差異化的成長、回報和價值。

Before closing, I also want to note how proud I am that, for the ninth consecutive year, National MI has been recognized as a Great Place to Work. Great Place to Work is a global authority on workplace culture, employee experience, and leadership, and partners with Fortune magazine to produce the annual Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For list. We believe that the quality of our team and the culture that we've established are key competitive advantages, and it's gratifying to again be recognized for these strengths.

在結束之前，我還想指出，我是多麼自豪，國家 MI 連續第九年被評為「最佳工作場所」。Great Place to Work 是工作場所文化、員工體驗和領導力方面的全球權威，並與《財富》雜誌合作推出了年度《財富》100 家最佳工作公司名單。我們相信，我們團隊的素質和我們所建立的文化是關鍵的競爭優勢，很高興這些優勢再次得到認可。

With that, I'll ask the operator to come back on so we can take your questions.

之後，我會請接線生回來，以便我們回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Doug Harter, UBS.

（操作員說明）Doug Harter，UBS。

Thanks. You've now seen the core yield kind of trend up for the past couple of quarters. Can you just talk about your expectations for that going forward, and kind of how the new premiums you're writing kind of compared to the in-force core yield?

謝謝。您現在已經看到過去幾季核心報酬率呈上升趨勢。您能否談談您對未來的期望，以及您所寫的新保費與有效核心報酬率相比如何？

Sure. Our premium yield has been trending higher for several consecutive quarters, and we saw continued strength in this quarter. And in terms of drivers, it's really two things.

當然。我們的保費收益率連續幾季呈上升趨勢，本季我們看到了持續的強勢。就驅動程式而言，這實際上是兩件事。

It's the continued strength of our persistency experience, and it's the cumulative gains that we've achieved in the new business pricing over the past year plus. So our net yield -- I'm not sure if that was part of your question -- it reflects this core strength and further benefited from the credit performance during the quarter, since we had lower losses, driving an increase in our profit commission and a decline in reinsurance costs.

這是我們堅持不懈的經驗的持續優勢，也是我們過去一年多在新業務定價中取得的累積收益。因此，我們的淨收益率——我不確定這是否是你問題的一部分——它反映了這一核心優勢，並進一步受益於本季度的信貸表現，因為我們的損失較低，推動了我們的利潤佣金的增加和再保險成本下降。

And Doug, just to layer on to that, I'd say broadly speaking, what we're achieving now from a new business standpoint is generally accretive to the overall yield profile of the portfolio. It's a constructive environment for us.

道格，我想說的是，從廣義上講，從新的業務角度來看，我們現在所取得的成就通常會增加投資組合的整體報酬率。這對我們來說是一個建設性的環境。

Great. Thank you, both.

偉大的。謝謝你們，兩位。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Firstly, Aurora, congratulations on the role and welcome. Look forward to working with you.

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。首先，奧羅拉（Aurora），祝賀你的角色並歡迎。期待與您合作。

In terms of the cure activity, obviously, the -- I just want to check, is there anything unusual to call out? I mean, the cures were higher than new defaults this quarter. We've seen cure activity particularly strong in the last few quarters.

就治療活動而言，顯然，我只是想檢查一下，是否有任何異常情況？我的意思是，本季的治癒率高於新的違約率。我們看到過去幾季的治療活動特別強勁。

How are you guys thinking of the trend in cure activity here? And like, really, the default rate is what I'm trying to get at. Like, do you think it increases as more of the '21, '22 portfolio enters its peak loss years? Do you think this is the -- like, the current rate is stable in this market backdrop in these conditions? Just your outlook on default rate, and what's driving the cure activity to be so strong?

你們如何看待這裡的治療活動趨勢？事實上，違約率正是我想要得到的。例如，您認為隨著更多「21」、「22」投資組合進入虧損高峰年，這一數字會增加嗎？您認為在這些條件下的市場背景下，目前的利率是否穩定？您對違約率的看法是什麼？

Sure. Well, why don't we parse it in terms of, one, what are we seeing actually developed in the quarter? And is there anything specific underlying the performance that we saw? And then two, we could talk about the go forward and how we think about what I'll call broadly a normalization.

當然。好吧，我們為什麼不從以下幾個方面來分析它：一，我們看到本季實際開發了什麼？我們看到的表現有什麼具體的基礎嗎？然後第二點，我們可以討論未來的發展，以及我們如何思考我所說的大體上的正常化。

Maybe I'll ask Aurora to touch on the cure experience that we saw in the quarter, and then I can talk about the go-forward.

也許我會請奧羅拉（Aurora）談談我們在本季看到的治療經驗，然後我可以談談下一步的進展。

Sure. We're really encouraged by the credit performance, obviously, of the overall portfolio, including the trends in our default population. In terms of specific ins and outs on the quarters, everything was pretty constructive in the quarter. Our new notice rate declined; our cure rate improved to the highest level in the past two years. And overall, the default population declined.

當然。顯然，整個投資組合的信用表現（包括我們違約人口的趨勢）確實令我們感到鼓舞。就本季的具體情況而言，本季的一切都非常有建設性。我們的新通知率下降了；我們的治癒率提高到近兩年來的最高水準。整體而言，預設人口有所下降。

Now we do generally expect to see some quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q1 and Q2. So we typically see worse performance in the fourth quarter around the holidays. People start to catch up in the first quarter around tax refund season. And you do see some of those seasonal benefits leading into the second quarter.

現在我們普遍預期第一季和第二季會出現一些季度較上季改善。因此，我們通常會在假期前後的第四季看到更糟糕的表現。一季度退稅季前後人們開始追趕。您確實會看到一些進入第二季的季節性收益。

So we do see that seasonal impact in the quarter that we've just discussed. But overall, borrowers remain well situated with strong credit profiles. They're in loans that were originated under very rigorous underwriting review and used to fund the purchase (inaudible). And many, as you indicated, continue to benefit from significant esthetic equity positions.

因此，我們確實看到了我們剛才討論的季度的季節性影響。但總體而言，借款人的信用狀況仍然良好。它們的貸款是在非常嚴格的承保審查下發放的，並用於為購買提供資金（聽不清楚）。正如您所指出的，許多人繼續受益於重要的美學資產地位。

Yeah. So in terms of the go-forward, right, it's a really strong quarter for us. Borrowers are performing when they run into issues. They've generally been able to recover and cure their defaults before we see claims develop.

是的。因此，就未來而言，這對我們來說是一個非常強勁的季度。借款人在遇到問題時表現良好。在我們看到索賠進展之前，他們通常能夠恢復並糾正其違約行為。

Looking ahead -- and Mihir, you touched on this. We talked about it for quite some time now. We do expect that our default count will increase over time, both with the natural growth and seasoning of our portfolio and that seasoning really as some of the more recent business begin to migrate into sort of typical loss in current periods.

展望未來——米希爾，你談到了這一點。我們已經討論了很長一段時間了。我們確實預計，隨著時間的推移，我們的違約數量將會增加，這既是由於我們投資組合的自然增長和老化，也是因為一些最近的業務開始轉變為當前時期的典型損失。

And with that, we do expect that, over time, we'll see a broader normalization of our credit experience after what's really been an extended record run. But overall, our performance continues to be quite strong. We're really encouraged by, obviously, what happened and what we saw developed in the portfolio so far. And we're optimistic as we look forward, just really given the strength of our underlying portfolio quality and how well positioned borrowers are today across the board.

因此，我們確實預計，隨著時間的推移，在經歷了長期的創紀錄運行之後，我們將看到我們的信貸體驗更廣泛地正常化。但總體而言，我們的表現仍然相當強勁。顯然，我們對迄今為止所發生的事情以及我們在投資組合中看到的發展感到非常鼓舞。考慮到我們的基礎投資組合品質的實力以及借款人目前的整體狀況，我們對未來感到樂觀。

Got it. Okay. In terms of the expense outlook, just I think your guidance that was reiterated in the prepared remarks was for low to mid-20s expense ratio. But like, you are basically at the bottom of that range already.

知道了。好的。就費用前景而言，我認為您在準備好的發言中重申的指導意見是針對 20 多歲中低水準的費用比率。但是，你基本上已經處於該範圍的底部了。

Presumably, you're still getting more scale. So I'm just wondering, like, is there something that's going to push the expense ratio higher the next couple of quarters? Like, why wouldn't it go below the range you've guided to?

據推測，您的規模仍在擴大。所以我只是想知道，是否有什麼因素會在接下來的幾季推高費用比率？例如，為什麼它不會低於你指導的範圍？

Mihir, so let me also just draw distinction, and it's an important one. What I will refer to is that our goals and we've shared that our goals over the long term are to be delivering low to mid-20s expense ratio. We're really proud to be achieving that.

Mihir，所以讓我也來區分一下，這是一個重要的區別。我要提到的是，我們的目標以及我們所分享的長期目標是實現 20 多歲左右的低至 20 多歲的費用率。我們非常自豪能夠實現這一目標。

It's specifically not guidance, right? And so don't take it, please, as guidance either for this year or for the longer term. It's really a goal that we have in how we want to manage our business, the discipline that we want to maintain from an expense efficiency standpoint. But it's not specific guidance. As to the go-forward, we'll also not give you guidance, but Aurora will give you some context at least.

具體來說，這不是指導，對吧？因此，請不要將其視為今年或長期的指導。這其實是我們如何管理業務的目標，也是我們從費用效率的角度想要維持的紀律。但這不是具體指導。至於下一步，我們也不會為您提供指導，但 Aurora 至少會給您一些背景資訊。

So we've always been focused on managing the business with discipline and trying to be efficient. And we're really proud of the record low 20.1% expense ratio in the quarter. But as we look out, we do expect to see some growth in net operating expenses. And we continue to want to invest in our people, systems, risk management strategies, and overall growth throughout the year.

因此，我們始終專注於按紀律管理業務並努力提高效率。我們對本季 20.1% 的創紀錄低費用率感到非常自豪。但正如我們所看到的，我們確實預計淨營運費用將會出現一些成長。我們繼續希望全年投資於我們的人員、系統、風險管理策略和整體成長。

Okay. Thank you for taking my question.

好的。感謝您回答我的問題。

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

里克·肖恩，摩根大通。

Hey, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. And Aurora, welcome. Just two things; one is sort of the big picture.

嘿，大家。感謝您提出我的問題。還有奧羅拉，歡迎你。只有兩件事；一個是大局。

If we look at the portfolio now from an insurance-in-force or risk-in-force perspective, about 29% of the portfolio is now '23, '24 vintage loans. They are very different from an affordability perspective than the core of the portfolio. Is one of the things that we need to think about over time sort of a bifurcation of this portfolio in terms of credit performance?

如果我們從有效保險或有效風險的角度來看現在的投資組合，大約 29% 的投資組合現在是 23、24 年的舊貸款。從負擔能力的角度來看，它們與投資組合的核心非常不同。隨著時間的推移，我們需要考慮的事情之一是該投資組合在信用表現上的分歧嗎？

Yeah. Rick, it's a good question. Look, I'd say it's certainly the case to a certain extent, but let me parse it, right?

是的。瑞克，這是個好問題。你看，我想說在某種程度上確實是這樣，但讓我解析一下，對嗎？

So our most recent vintages -- and let's put 2022 into the mix there because the note rate underlying our 2022 book -- really, the back end of it is also meaningfully higher than that sort of the historical lows that we saw in the 2020 and 2021 books.

因此，我們最近的年份 - 讓我們將 2022 年納入其中，因為我們 2022 年書籍的基礎票據利率 - 實際上，它的後端也明顯高於我們在 2020 年看到的歷史低點，並且2021 年書籍。

But regardless of the vintage, the approach that we've taken to underwriting to risk selection to managing our mix has been the same. And so whether it's the first-half '24, full-year 2023, or 2019, 2020 vintage, they're all high quality, right?

但無論年份如何，我們在承保風險選擇和管理我們的組合方面所採取的方法都是相同的。所以無論是 24 年上半年、2023 年全年，還是 2019 年、2020 年年份，它們都是高品質的，對吧？

We've applied that same rigor in risk selection as we always have. We've sourced comprehensive reinsurance protection on all of those vintages. And so there's really -- there's no notable difference in the underlying borrower loan level, geographic, or product risk attributes that underpin different vintage years of production. And so the real difference is, one, are the note rate; and two, are the amounts of embedded equity.

我們一如既往地嚴格選擇風險。我們為所有這些年份提供了全面的再保險保障。因此，支撐不同年份生產的基礎借款人貸款水準、地理或產品風險屬性確實沒有顯著差異。因此，真正的差別在於，一是票據利率；二是票據利率。第二，是嵌入權益的金額。

Now the note rate actually, which I think is what you're focused on, we don't necessarily expect that that will be a core driver of differences in credit performance. Because, remember, everything is going through a rigorous underwriting process.

實際上，我認為您所關注的是票據利率，我們不一定期望這將成為信貸表現差異的核心驅動因素。因為，請記住，一切都經過嚴格的承保流程。

And so yes, the profile, the loan. and the headline affordability on, say, an early '24 loan versus a 2020 or 2021 mortgage is different. But the borrowers who qualified for that loan in 2024 is equally well qualified with whatever the headline credit statistics are for that particular loan, that particular purchase, as they were in 2020 or 2021.

是的，個人資料、貸款。例如，24 年早期貸款與 2020 年或 2021 年抵押貸款的整體負擔能力是不同的。但在 2024 年有資格獲得該貸款的借款人與 2020 年或 2021 年一樣，同樣符合該特定貸款、特定購買的整體信用統計數據。

There is, I'd say, an intangible benefit, right? And there may be an extra motivation for a borrower in 2020 or 2021 to try to stay current on their loan because the intangible value of having a 3% or sub-3% note rate. And we'll have to see how that plays out.

我想說，這是無形的好處，對嗎？2020 年或 2021 年，借款人可能會有額外的動機嘗試繼續償還貸款，因為 3% 或低於 3% 的票據利率具有無形價值。我們必須看看結果如何。

But the much bigger difference -- driver of differences that we expect to emerge over time is simply the amount of embedded equity, right? The borrowers who took out loans in 2020, 2021 purchased a home, have seen record amounts of home price appreciation, significant equitization of that risk. And that provides them with both incentive to stay current and options to cure their default if they ultimately fall behind that may not be available for more recent borrowers.

但更大的差異——我們預計隨著時間的推移會出現差異的驅動因素只是嵌入股權的數量，對嗎？在 2020 年、2021 年貸款購買房屋的借款人見證了創紀錄的房價上漲，這種風險顯著資產化。這不僅為他們提供了保持最新狀態的動力，也為他們提供了在最終落後的情況下解決違約問題的選擇，而這對最近的借款人來說可能是無法獲得的。

So we do expect that, over time, we'll see differences in the performance of different vintages. But it's not because of the underlying credit profile of the borrower or the underlying note rate. It's really because of the HPA path from origination.

因此，我們確實預計，隨著時間的推移，我們會看到不同年份的表現有差異。但這並不是因為借款人的基本信用狀況或基本票據利率。這實際上是因為從起源開始的 HPA 路徑。

Got it. It's really helpful distinction, Adam. Thank you. And then just a small weird question. In general, persistency seemed pretty consistent across the vintages. We did, for some reason, at least within our model showing the 2020 persistency ticked down more severely than any of the other cohorts.

知道了。這確實很有幫助，亞當。謝謝。然後只是一個奇怪的小問題。總的來說，各年份的持久性似乎相當一致。出於某種原因，我們確實這麼做了，至少在我們的模型中顯示，2020 年的持久性比任何其他群體下降得更嚴重。

I'm curious if that's something you guys observed. Is it just structural due to the passage of time, or is it something we need to think about as we build our models out?

我很好奇你們是否觀察到了這一點。這只是由於時間的推移而產生的結構性問題，還是我們在建立模型時需要考慮的問題？

Yeah, it's a good question. I can't give you a specific guidance from a modeling standpoint. We'll share with you what we're observing.

是的，這是一個好問題。我無法從建模的角度為您提供具體的指導。我們將與您分享我們所觀察到的情況。

So remember, the lower the underlying note rate, the more of the monthly payment that goes towards principal paydown. So there is a dynamic where you'll -- even though you have this remarkably low underlying note rate -- and that's obviously, largely eliminated refinancing activity -- you do have this just natural paydown dynamic on the loans that factors through. And it does feed into the persistency calculation itself.

因此請記住，基礎票據利率越低，用於償還本金的每月付款就越多。因此，即使你的基礎票據利率非常低，而且顯然很大程度上消除了再融資活動，你也會有一種動態，你確實會對所影響的貸款有這種自然的還款動態。它確實會影響持久性計算本身。

The other one, though, is like the lock-in type, the lock-in effect for existing homeowners because of the intangible value, the huge benefit of having a 3% or sub-3% note rate. At the same time, families do have needs, right? And over time, you may need more space. You may have a different financial situation. You want a different living experience.

然而，另一種就像鎖定類型，由於無形價值而對現有房主產生鎖定效應，即擁有 3% 或低於 3% 票據利率的巨大好處。同時，家庭也確實有需求，對嗎？隨著時間的推移，您可能需要更多空間。您可能有不同的財務狀況。你想要不一樣的生活體驗。

And a lot of that, we think, is going towards refinancing remodeling, perhaps -- sorry, not refinancing -- remodeling, which could be funded with a HELOC or some other type of additional leverage on the home. When that happens, we do see that there's an appraisal that source. And that appraisal may give rise to some degree of cancellation activity on some of those vintages that still have really low underlying note rates. And so there's a degree of that coming through.

我們認為，其中很大一部分將用於為改造再融資，也許——抱歉，不是再融資——改造，這可以透過 HELOC 或其他類型的房屋額外槓桿來資助。當這種情況發生時，我們確實看到有一個評估來源。這種評估可能會導致某些年份的基礎票據利率仍然很低的取消活動。所以在某種程度上，這種情況正在發生。

Got it. Really interesting. Thank you, guys.

知道了。真的很有趣。謝謝你們，夥計們。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯·喬治，KBW。

Hey, everyone. Good afternoon. Actually, one more on losses. Can you just remind us -- in terms of -- is there a normalized loss ratio that you're underwriting to for your current books of business?

嘿，大家。午安.事實上，還有一個關於損失的問題。您能否提醒我們，您目前的業務帳簿是否有一個標準化的損失率？

No, so there's no target loss ratio per se, right? Our goal, ultimately, when we're pricing business, we want to price on, I'd say, a return neutral basis across the entirety of the risk spectrum. And that return that we target is a 15% unlevered return on PMIERs assets across the risk spectrum.

不，所以本身沒有目標損失率，對吧？我們的最終目標是，當我們對業務進行定價時，我想說的是，我們希望在整個風險範圍內的回報中性基礎上進行定價。我們的目標回報是 PMIER 資產在整個風險範圍內獲得 15% 的無槓桿回報。

Obviously, that's what we hope to achieve; that's our price expectation. Different risk cohorts have meaningfully different loss expectations embedded in that pricing framework. But there's no, say, normalized loss ratio that we either price to or that we would necessarily expect on a particular pool of business.

顯然，這就是我們希望實現的目標；這就是我們的價格預期。該定價框架中不同的風險群有著截然不同的損失預期。但是，對於特定的業務池，我們沒有定價或預期的標準化損失率。

Okay. Great. Thank you. And then could you just help me with the math on the reserve for the new notices in the quarter? I think you do it net of releases in IBNR. Is there sort of a gross number that you can give?

好的。偉大的。謝謝。然後你能幫我計算一下本季新通知的儲備金嗎？我認為您是在扣除 IBNR 發行版後才這樣做的。您可以提供一個總數字嗎？

Yeah. So it's a little -- the other item that just always gets a little bit interesting is the reserve table, the current year -- it's current year, not current period.

是的。所以它有點 - 另一個總是有點有趣的項目是保留表，當前年份 - 這是當前年份，而不是當前時期。

So embedded in the number that you see, which I believe is around $17 million or so, are actually also releases on the loans that had first emerged in defaults in the first quarter, that cured out. And so the number to focus on, though, is -- if you took away all of the favorable prior-period development, what we established for new notices in the quarter was $27 million.

因此，你看到的數字（我認為約為 1700 萬美元左右）實際上也釋放了第一季首次出現違約的貸款，這些貸款已得到解決。因此，要關注的數字是——如果剔除所有有利的前期發展，我們為本季的新通知確定的金額為 2700 萬美元。

Okay. Perfect. Great. Thank you.

好的。完美的。偉大的。謝謝。

Soham Bhonsle, BTIG.

Soham Bhonsle，BTIG。

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. And Aurora, welcome to the fold.

嘿，大家下午好。奧羅拉（Aurora），歡迎來到這裡。

I guess, first one, Adam, it looks like purchase NIW was up nicely this quarter for both you and your peer that just reported. But if I sort of look at the industry forecast, the range is sort of between negative to up modestly.

我想，第一個，Adam，對於您和您剛剛報告的同行來說，本季購買 NIW 的情況看起來不錯。但如果我看一下產業預測，就會發現這個範圍介於負值和適度上升之間。

So I guess, any sense for whether the MI product is sort of being able to penetrate the market more at this point given the stretch affordability? Or is it just a function of where folks are choosing to sort of pick up business in the quarter?

所以我想，考慮到可負擔性，MI 產品此時是否能夠更多地滲透市場有什麼意義嗎？或者這只是人們選擇在本季開展業務的地方的函數？

Yeah. So good question. Obviously, we've only had one other peer report, so we'll see how everything develops through the course of this week. And I can't necessarily speak to where they're focused.

是的。好問題。顯然，我們只有另一份同儕報告，所以我們將在本週看到一切的發展。我不一定能說出他們關注的焦點。

But I'd say in terms of our broad expectations for MI market size through -- for the full year, we still expect that 2024 overall will be very similar to the volume that the industry delivered in 2023. We still see those long-term underlying secular drivers of demand and activity come through. We see resiliency, and house prices, obviously, supports larger loan sizes even if origination activity by count is lower.

但我想說的是，就我們對全年 MI 市場規模的廣泛預期而言，我們仍然預計 2024 年的整體銷量將與 2023 年行業交付的數量非常相似。我們仍然看到需求和活動的長期潛在長期驅動因素正在顯現。我們看到了彈性，房價顯然支持更大的貸款規模，即使按數量計算的發起活動較低。

To a degree, I think you're right. Some of the affordability constraints that prevail more broadly across the market do mean that an increasing number of borrowers need MI support for their downpayment. But last year, industry NIW in 2023 was around $285 billion, and we expect that we'll have a similarly attractive environment when all is said and done this year.

在某種程度上，我認為你是對的。整個市場普遍存在的一些負擔能力限制確實意味著越來越多的借款人需要 MI 支援來支付首付。但去年，2023 年的產業 NIW 約為 2,850 億美元，我們預計今年歸根結底，我們將擁有一個同樣有吸引力的環境。

A little bit of movement up or down through the back half, depending on how interest rates trend and where the macro goes. But the $285 billion market, up or down, is a really constructive environment -- new business environment for us.

後半段會有一點向上或向下的波動，這取決於利率趨勢和宏觀走勢。但 2850 億美元的市場，無論上漲或下跌，都是一個真正具有建設性的環境——對我們來說是新的商業環境。

Yeah, makes sense. I guess, on HPA, we've seen a fair bit of inventory growth in some of the large housing markets, Texas, Florida. But home prices still seem to be sort of holding in these states. I think it's just a function of where, I guess, the inventory, the pricing is.

是的，有道理。我想，在 HPA 上，我們已經看到德克薩斯州、佛羅裡達州等一些大型房地產市場的庫存出現了相當大的增長。但這些州的房價似乎仍保持穩定。我認為這只是庫存和定價的函數。

But list prices have gone down, and price cuts have gone up. So I'm just wondering, how are you assessing sort of the risk to HPA in some of these core markets?

但標價下降了，降價幅度也加大了。所以我只是想知道，您如何評估其中一些核心市場的 HPA 風險？

Yeah. Look, it's something we need to monitor at all times. Broadly speaking, we've been really encouraged, obviously, by the resiliency that we've seen on a national basis. I think the June data that came out shows, broadly speaking, we're still setting new record highs, and that's encouraging.

是的。看，這是我們需要時時監控的事情。從廣義上講，顯然，我們在全國範圍內看到的彈性確實受到了鼓舞。我認為六月的數據顯示，總體而言，我們仍在創下新的紀錄高點，這是令人鼓舞的。

But you've touched on it exactly, right? We are seeing, I'd say, differences emerge in certain local markets, and we would identify really at the top of the list, parts of Florida and Texas, right, areas that saw some of the most significant price increases during the pandemic rally but that are now facing, I'd say, more pronounced supply-demand and affordability constraints.

但你確實已經觸及它了，對吧？我想說的是，我們看到某些當地市場出現了差異，我們會確定最重要的是佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的部分地區，這些地區在大流行反彈期間出現了一些最顯著的價格上漲但我想說，現在面臨更明顯的供需和負擔能力限制。

And as a result, we do see that house prices are under pressure in certain local markets. And one of the keys for us is that Rate GPS provides us with the ability to price differently in different geographies to account for risk. And so we have in Rate GPS, the ability to price differently across 950 different MSAs.

因此，我們確實看到某些當地市場的房價面臨壓力。對我們來說，關鍵之一是，Rate GPS 使我們能夠在不同的地區進行不同的定價，以考慮風險。因此，我們在費率 GPS 中能夠對 950 個不同的 MSA 進行不同的定價。

And we have taken actions in markets where we see some of those indications, really rising inventories, a bit of pressure already emerging from a house price standpoint. We want to make sure that we're pricing for that risk appropriately when it's coming into our book and that we're managing the overall flow of that risk onto our balance sheet as well.

我們已經在市場上採取了行動，我們看到了一些跡象，庫存確實在增加，從房價的角度來看已經出現了一些壓力。我們希望確保，當該風險進入我們的帳簿時，我們能夠對其進行適當的定價，並且我們也能夠管理該風險在資產負債表上的整體流動。

Okay. Great. And then just a quick one, Aurora, on the buyback. I didn't hear a number for the quarter. If you could just provide that. And then just more broadly, which shares sort of trading at 1.5 times book. Just wondering how sensitive you are to valuation going forward. And is there a more systematic way to sort of return -- control your [ease] essentially to drive the ultimate return profile that you'd like? Thank you.

好的。偉大的。然後是一個快速的，奧羅拉（Aurora），關於回購。我沒有聽到該季度的數字。如果你能提供的話。更廣泛地說，該股的交易價格約為帳面價值的 1.5 倍。只是想知道您對未來的估值有多敏感。是否有一種更有系統的方法來排序回報——從本質上控制你的[輕鬆程度]以驅動你想要的最終回報概況？謝謝。

Sure. So the number was $26.8 million in the quarter, and that's a $31.79 average share price. And maybe I'll let Adam address the second piece of your question.

當然。因此，該季度的數字為 2,680 萬美元，平均股價為 31.79 美元。也許我會讓亞當回答你的第二個問題。

Yeah. Thanks, Aurora. Look, in terms of how we think about valuation impacting repurchase activity. Look, I think the core goal of our repurchase program is really to rightsize our funding profile, optimize our capital position, and support our strong mid-teen return goals over time.

是的。謝謝，奧羅拉。看，就我們如何看待影響回購活動的估值而言。看，我認為我們回購計畫的核心目標實際上是調整我們的資金狀況，優化我們的資本狀況，並隨著時間的推移支持我們強勁的中青少年回報目標。

We would obviously like to buy low and see our shares outperform. It's what we've been doing with great success for the last two years. I think we've repurchased now a little over $200 million of stock at an average price of $24.59. And so that goal of buying low and seeing our stock perform, we certainly met. But we don't have, I'd say, bright line valuation thresholds that really will sharply dictate how we proceed from where we are.

我們顯然希望低價買入，並看到我們的股票跑贏大盤。這就是我們過去兩年一直在做的事情，並且取得了巨大成功。我認為我們現在已經以 24.59 美元的平均價格回購了價值略高於 2 億美元的股票。因此，我們確實實現了低價買入並觀察我們的股票表現的目標。但我想說，我們沒有明確的估值門檻，這確實會嚴重決定我們如何從目前的情況出發。

As we look ahead, we expect that we'll continue to be in the market executing under our program, although it's also likely that we'll naturally see the pace of our execution activity fluctuate either up or down depending on where our stock price moves period to period. And with recent rally in our stock price, I wouldn't be surprised if we have a modestly slower pace of repurchase activity in Q3 as we see how valuation develops.

展望未來，我們預計我們將繼續根據我們的計劃在市場上執行，儘管我們也可能自然地看到我們的執行活動的節奏根據我們的股價變動而上下波動一個時期到一個時期。隨著近期股價的上漲，如果我們在第三季回購活動的步伐適度放緩，因為我們看到估值的發展情況，我不會感到驚訝。

Okay. Great. Thanks a lot for the thoughts.

好的。偉大的。非常感謝您的想法。

(Operator Instructions) Mark Hughes, Truist.

（操作員說明）Mark Hughes，Truist。

Yeah, thank you. Good afternoon. Aurora, what was the new money yield in the quarter?

是的，謝謝。午安.Aurora，本季的新貨幣收益率是多少？

So it's come off a little bit quarter over quarter. It's -- what I'd characterize as the high 4s, so between 4.75% and 5%. I'm sorry, was the question about the quarter or our current new money yield?

因此，它的季度比季度有所下降。我將其描述為高 4，即 4.75% 到 5% 之間。抱歉，問題是關於本季還是我們目前的新資金收益率？

I'll take both. It sounds like 4.75% or 5% for the quarter or how you're seeing that --

我兩個都要。聽起來這個季度的成長率是 4.75% 或 5%，或者你是如何看待的--

The number I just gave you, the 4.75% or 5%, is really our current new money yield. Where we're putting money to work -- where we put money to work in the quarter was a little bit north of 5%.

我剛才給你的數字，4.75%或5%，實際上是我們目前的新貨幣收益率。我們投入資金的地方—本季我們投入資金的地方略高於 5%。

And so I think on our last quarterly call, we said we were putting new money to work at 5% to 5.5%. It came down a little bit during the second quarter, again, still averaging above 5%. And now we're putting money to work in what I'd characterize as the high 4s.

因此，我認為在我們上一季的電話會議上，我們表示我們將以 5% 至 5.5% 的速度投入新資金。第二季再次略有下降，平均仍高於 5%。現在我們正在把錢投入到我所謂的「高 4」領域。

And Mark, all of which is still valuable for us. Obviously, the overall book yield on the current portfolio is 3%. So it still provides a nice uplift.

還有馬克，所有這些對我們來說仍然很有價值。顯然，目前投資組合的整體帳面收益率為 3%。所以它仍然提供了很好的提升。

Yes, exactly. Adam, you touched on, I think, a lot of the issues that go into this question, but the new pricing being accretive to the yield even as your loss experience continues to be quite good. You talked about a balanced and constructive competitive environment.

是的，完全正確。亞當，我認為你談到了這個問題的許多問題，但新的定價會增加收益，即使你的損失經歷仍然相當好。您談到了平衡和建設性的競爭環境。

One might think under the circumstances the yield would be perhaps neutral or maybe even dilutive to the overall premium yield. What does the kind of shifting the balance to make it more accretive in your opinion?

人們可能會認為，在這種情況下，收益率可能是中性的，甚至可能會稀釋整體保費收益率。在您看來，如何改變平衡才能使其更具增值性？

Yeah. I mean -- so look, also the March or we're talking about fractions of a basis point of movement, right? So it's not as that we went from 34.1 basis points of core yield last quarter to 37 now. I think we went from 34.1 to 34.3 basis points; so to put it into context there.

是的。我的意思是——所以看，還有三月，或者我們正在談論移動基點的分數，對吧？所以，我們的核心殖利率並不是從上個季度的 34.1 個基點升至現在的 37 個基點。我認為我們從 34.1 個基點升至 34.3 個基點；所以要把它放在上下文中。

Look, I'll touch on both a little bit more on yield and also just a little more on the pricing environment. I'd say from a pricing standpoint, what's most important is that we find that right point of balance, where we can fully and fairly support our customers and their borrowers, but at the same time, through all markets, but at the same time, make sure that we're charging a price in any given market that is appropriate to protect our balance sheet and our ability to deliver the returns and value that we think are necessary and appropriate for shareholders.

聽著，我將更多地討論產量和定價環境。我想說，從定價的角度來看，最重要的是我們找到正確的平衡點，我們可以充分、公平地支持我們的客戶及其借款人，但同時，透過所有市場，但同時，確保我們在任何特定市場上收取的價格適合保護我們的資產負債表以及我們為股東提供我們認為必要且適當的回報和價值的能力。

And right now, we believe that the market and what we're achieving in the market is at that point of balance, which is really constructive. As we look forward from a yield standpoint, we've had a nice bit of tailwind over the last several quarters, right, as Aurora mentioned, sort of our yield inflecting higher.

現在，我們相信市場和我們在市場上取得的成就正處於平衡點，這確實具有建設性。從收益率的角度來看，我們在過去的幾個季度中遇到了一些順風車，正如奧羅拉（Aurora）所提到的，我們的收益率有所上升。

In terms of our outlook, I think broadly speaking, I'm going to use 34.1 to 34.3 basis points as generally stable as opposed to necessarily marching dramatically higher. We do expect that our core yield is going to remain generally stable through the remainder of the year. And it's going to be supported by the strong persistency that we see and also the current pricing environment.

就我們的前景而言，我認為總體而言，我將使用 34.1 至 34.3 個基點作為整體穩定，而不是必然大幅走高。我們確實預計我們的核心殖利率將在今年剩餘時間內保持整體穩定。我們看到的強勁持久性以及當前的定價環境將為其提供支援。

Our net yields, though, it's going to benefit to a degree from that core stability, but it's also going to be impacted by two things. It's going to be impacted by anything that happens from a reinsurance standpoint. But much more importantly, it's going to be impacted by our loss experience. Because you'll recall that our profit commission and ceded losses actually run through to a degree through our premium revenue.

不過，我們的淨殖利率將在一定程度上受益於核心穩定性，但它也會受到兩件事的影響。從再保險的角度來看，它會受到發生的任何事情的影響。但更重要的是，它會受到我們的損失經驗的影響。因為您會記得，我們​​的利潤佣金和讓渡損失實際上在一定程度上透過我們的保費收入體現。

If losses increase and our ceded losses increase, it weighs down our profit commission, even though economically, we get the same reimbursement coming through as a claims benefit. And so that could cause some fluctuation up or down further in our net yield.

如果損失增加，我們的分讓損失增加，就會降低我們的利潤佣金，即使從經濟上來說，我們得到的報銷與索賠福利相同。因此，這可能會導致我們的淨收益率進一步波動。

So that's where we see things. It's a really constructive environment and really at a point of balance for what we're doing and leaning in to support borrowers and our customers and also what it allows us to deliver from a return standpoint.

這就是我們所看到的情況。這是一個真正具有建設性的環境，對於我們正在做的事情和傾向於支持借款人和我們的客戶以及它允許我們從回報的角度提供的東西來說，確實處於一個平衡點。

Appreciate that detail. Thank you.

欣賞這個細節。謝謝。

Scott Heleniak, RBC Capital Markets.

Scott Heleniak，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Yes, good evening. Just a question on NIW for the quarter. Wondering if you had any sense and you could share on what percent you think of NIW is first-time homebuyers and how that might compare with what we're seeing in the marketplace, which is still a low number of first-time homebuyers. But just wondering how your book might compare with kind of what's out there.

是的，晚上好。只是關於本季 NIW 的問題。想知道您是否有任何理智，可以分享一下您對 NIW 首次購房者的看法，以及與我們在市場上看到的情況相比如何，市場上首次購房者的數量仍然很少。但只是想知道你的書與市面上的書相比如何。

Look, broadly speaking, I think our product is primarily geared towards first-time homebuyers, right? They're the ones who typically need downpayment support the most. They're starting out. They don't have the savings, and they haven't benefited from equity appreciation on the home that they're selling to get to that 20% downpayment.

你看，從廣義上講，我認為我們的產品主要針對首次購屋者，對嗎？他們通常是最需要首付支持的人。他們要開始了。他們沒有積蓄，也沒有從他們為了獲得 20% 首付而出售的房屋的淨值升值中受益。

I don't have the stats off the top of my head, though, as to what portion of the $12.5 billion we wrote in the second quarter was for first-time homebuyers. But we're happy to follow up and share that with you.

不過，我並不清楚第二季我們寫下的 125 億美元中有多少部分是針對首次購屋者的。但我們很樂意跟進並與您分享。

Okay. Great. Yeah, the second question I have was just on the footnote you had about -- related to the reinsurance, the termination, and [commute] previously outstanding excess loss reinsurance agreement with Oaktown Re, July 25, 2023, and July 25, 2024. Is there going to be an impact in Q3 then that we should be aware of related to that?

好的。偉大的。是的，我的第二個問題就在你提到的腳註中——與2023年7月25日和2024年7月25日與Oaktown Re的再保險、終止和[通勤]之前未決的超額損失再保險協議有關。那麼我們應該意識到第三季是否會產生與此相關的影響？

Yeah, we're going to save about $700,000 per quarter in terms of just expense associated with that deal. And there's no impact to our PMIERs available assets. So we're constantly looking at the portfolio. We have of outstanding ILNs and quota shares and XOL and thinking about ways to optimize them and make them more efficient.

是的，就與該交易相關的費用而言，我們每季將節省約 70 萬美元。這對我們的 PMIER 可用資產沒有影響。所以我們一直在關注投資組合。我們擁有出色的 ILN、配額份額和 XOL，並正在思考如何優化它們並提高它們的效率。

Okay. Thanks a lot.

好的。多謝。

And just the team around the table has given me the stats we could share with you. Of the $12.5 billion, 52% was volume in support of first-time homebuyers.

會議桌旁的團隊已經給了我可以與您分享的統計數據。在 125 億美元中，52% 用於支持首次購房者。

Okay. That's great. That's well above the -- the number I keep seeing is somewhere around 30% to 40%. So that seems like it's above that. Appreciate it.

好的。那太棒了。這遠高於我一直看到的 30% 到 40% 左右的數字。所以這看起來像是在上面。欣賞它。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將會議轉交管理層發表閉幕詞。

Well, thank you again for joining us. We'll be participating in the JPMorgan Future of Financials Forum virtually on August 13 and 14, and the Barclays Financial Services Conference in New York on September 9. We look forward to speaking with you again soon.

好的，再次感謝您加入我們。我們將參加 8 月 13 日至 14 日舉行的摩根大通金融未來論壇，以及 9 月 9 日在紐約舉行的巴克萊金融服務會議。我們期待很快再次與您交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。