NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the NMIH Holdings Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 NMIH Holdings 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. John Swenson. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給約翰·斯文森先生。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to the 2023 Third Quarter Conference Call for National MI. I'm John Swenson, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Joining us on the call today are Brad Shuster, Executive Chairman; Adam Pollitzer, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ravi Mallela, Chief Financial Officer; and Nick Realmuto, our Controller. Financial results for the quarter were released after the close today. The press release may be accessed on NMI's website located at nationalmi.com under the Investors tab.

謝謝你，接線生。下午好，歡迎參加 2023 年第三季全國 MI 電話會議。我是約翰‧斯文森 (John Swenson)，投資者關係與財務部副總裁。今天加入我們電話會議的有執行主席布拉德舒斯特 (Brad Shuster)； Adam Pollitzer，總裁兼執行長；馬萊拉 (Ravi Mallela)，財務長；以及我們的財務總監 Nick Realmuto。該季度的財務業績於今天收盤後發布。新聞稿可在 NMI 網站Nationalmi.com 的「投資者」標籤下存取。

During the course of this call, we may make comments about our expectations for the future. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements. Additional information about the factors that could cause actual results or trends to differ materially from those discussed on the call can be found on our website or through our regulatory filings with the SEC.

在這次電話會議期間，我們可能會就我們對未來的期望發表評論。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中所包含的結果有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果或趨勢與電話會議中討論的結果或趨勢存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，可以在我們的網站或透過我們向 SEC 提交的監管文件中找到。

If and to the extent the company makes forward-looking statements, we do not undertake any obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent developments. Further, no one should rely on the fact that the guidance of such statements is current at any time other than the time of this call.

如果公司做出前瞻性陳述，我們不承擔任何義務在未來根據後續發展更新這些陳述。此外，任何人都不應依賴這樣一個事實：此類聲明的指導在本次電話會議之外的任何時間都是最新的。

Also note that on this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP measures. In today's press release and on our website, we provided a reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable measures under GAAP. Now I'll turn the call over to Brad.

另請注意，在本次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計原則措施。在今天的新聞稿和我們的網站上，我們提供了這些衡量標準與公認會計準則下最可比衡量標準的調節表。現在我將把電話轉給布拉德。

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to report that in the third quarter, National MI again delivered standout operating performance, continued growth in our insured portfolio and record financial results. .

謝謝約翰，大家下午好。我很高興地向大家報告，第三季度，National MI 再次實現了出色的營運業績，我們的保險組合持續成長，財務業績創歷史新高。 。

Our lenders and their borrowers continue to turn to us for critical down payment support. And in the third quarter, we generated $11.3 billion of NIW volume, ending the period with a record $194.8 billion of high-quality, high-performing insurance-in-force.

我們的貸方及其借款人繼續向我們尋求關鍵的首付支援。第三季度，我們產生了 113 億美元的 NIW 保額，以創紀錄的 1,948 億美元的高品質、高性能有效保險保額結束這段時期。

While the macro risk environment continues to evolve, we remain greatly encouraged by the resiliency of the housing market, the exceptional performance of our high-quality insured portfolio and the broader success we're achieving across our business.

儘管宏觀風險環境不斷變化，但房地產市場的彈性、高品質保險投資組合的卓越表現以及我們在整個業務中取得的更廣泛的成功仍然令我們深受鼓舞。

In Washington, our conversations remain active and constructive. Policymakers, regulators, the FHFA and the GSEs remain highly focused on promoting broader access and affordability to the housing market. And we believe there is broad recognition of the unique and valuable role that the private mortgage insurance industry plays in this regard.

在華盛頓，我們的對話仍然活躍且富有建設性。政策制定者、監管機構、聯邦住房金融局 (FHFA) 和政府支持企業 (GSE) 仍然高度關注促進更廣泛的住房市場准入和可負擔性。我們相信，私人抵押貸款保險行業在這方面發揮的獨特而有價值的作用已得到廣泛認可。

At National MI, we recognize the need to provide all borrowers with a fair and equitable opportunity to access the housing market, establish a community identity and build long-term wealth through homeownership. Our products and the support we provide are more important today than ever before and we see an increasing opportunity to support borrowers at a time when they need us most.

在 National MI，我們認識到需要為所有借款人提供公平公正的機會進入房地產市場、建立社區認同並透過擁有住房建立長期財富。如今，我們的產品和我們提供的支援比以往任何時候都更加重要，我們看到在藉款人最需要我們的時候為他們提供支援的機會越來越多。

Overall, we had a terrific third quarter and are well positioned to continue to lead with impact and drive value for our people, our customers and their borrowers and our shareholders going forward.

總體而言，我們第三季的業績非常出色，並且處於有利位置，可以繼續為我們的員工、客戶及其借款人和股東帶來影響力和價值。

With that, let me turn it over to Adam.

那麼，讓我把它交給亞當。

Thank you, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone. National MI continued to outperform in the third quarter, delivering significant new business production, strong growth in our insured portfolio and record financial results. We generated $11.3 billion of NIW volume and ended the period with a record $194.8 billion of high-quality, high-performing insurance-in-force. Total revenue in the third quarter was a record $148.2 million, and we delivered record GAAP net income of $84 million or $1 per diluted share and a 19% return on equity.

謝謝布拉德，大家下午好。國民保險在第三季度繼續表現出色，實現了顯著的新業務產出、保險組合的強勁增長以及創紀錄的財務業績。我們產生了 113 億美元的 NIW 金額，並以創紀錄的 1,948 億美元的高品質、高性能有效保險結束了這段時期。第三季的總收入達到創紀錄的 1.482 億美元，我們實現了創紀錄的 GAAP 淨利潤 8,400 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1 美元，股本回報率為 19%。

Overall, we had an exceptionally strong quarter and are confident as we look ahead. The macro environment and housing market in particular, have remained resilient in the face of increasing interest rates. We see a sustained new business opportunity with our lender customers and their borrowers continuing to rely on us in size for critical down payment support.

總體而言，我們度過了一個異常強勁的季度，並且對未來充滿信心。面對利率上升，宏觀環境，尤其是房地產市場仍保持彈性。我們看到了持續的新商機，我們的貸方客戶及其借款人繼續依賴我們的規模來提供關鍵的首付支援。

We have an exceptionally high-quality insured portfolio and our credit performance continues to stand ahead. Our persistency remains well above historical trends and when paired with our current NIW volume has helped to drive continued growth and embedded value gains in our insured book.

我們擁有極其優質的保險投資組合，並且我們的信用表現繼續保持領先。我們的持續性仍然遠高於歷史趨勢，與我們目前的 NIW 數量相結合，有助於推動我們保險帳簿的持續成長和內含價值收益。

We've led with innovation in the risk transfer markets and have secured comprehensive reinsurance coverage on nearly all of the policies we've ever originated. And we continue to manage our expenses and capital position with discipline and efficiency, building a robust balance sheet that is supported by the significant earnings power of our platform.

我們引領了風險轉移市場的創新，並為我們發起的幾乎所有保單提供了全面的再保險保障。我們繼續以紀律和效率管理我們的費用和資本狀況，建立由我們平台的巨大盈利能力支持的穩健的資產負債表。

Notwithstanding these strong positives, however, macro risks do remain, and we have maintained a proactive stance with respect to our pricing, risk selection and reinsurance decisioning. It's an approach that has served us well and continues to be the prudent and appropriate course.

然而，儘管有這些強勁的積極因素，宏觀風險仍然存在，我們在定價、風險選擇和再保險決策方面保持了積極主動的立場。這種方法對我們很有幫助，而且仍然是審慎而適當的做法。

More broadly, we've been encouraged by the continued discipline that we've seen across the private MI market. Underwriting standards remain rigorous, and the pricing environment remains balanced and constructive. Overall, we had a terrific quarter, delivering strong operating performance, continued growth in our insured portfolio and record financial results.

更廣泛地說，我們對整個私人 MI 市場持續的紀律感到鼓舞。承保標準仍然嚴格，定價環境保持平衡和建設性。總體而言，我們度過了一個出色的季度，實現了強勁的營運業績，保險投資組合持續成長，財務業績創紀錄。

Looking ahead, we're well positioned to continue to serve our customers and their borrowers, invest in our employees and their success, drive growth in our high-quality insured portfolio and deliver through the cycle growth, returns and value for our shareholders.

展望未來，我們有能力繼續為我們的客戶及其借款人提供服務，投資於我們的員工及其成功，推動我們高品質保險投資組合的成長，並為我們的股東提供整個週期的成長、回報和價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to Ravi.

有了這個，我會把它交給拉維。

Thank you, Adam. We delivered record financial results in the third quarter with significant new business production, strong growth in our high-quality insured portfolio, record top line performance, favorable credit experience, continued expense efficiency and record bottom line profitability.

謝謝你，亞當。我們在第三季度取得了創紀錄的財務業績，新業務產量顯著，高品質的保險投資組合強勁增長，創紀錄的頂線業績，良好的信貸體驗，持續的費用效率和創紀錄的底線盈利能力。

Total revenue in the second quarter was a record $148.2 million. GAAP net income was a record $84 million or $1 per diluted share, and our return on equity was 19%.

第二季總營收達到創紀錄的 1.482 億美元。 GAAP 淨利潤達到創紀錄的 8,400 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1 美元，股本回報率為 19%。

We generated $11.3 billion of NIW and our insurance-in-force grew to $194.8 billion, up 2% from the end of the second quarter and 9% compared to the second quarter of 2022.

我們產生了 113 億美元的 NIW，有效保險額增至 1,948 億美元，較第二季末成長 2%，較 2022 年第二季成長 9%。

12-month persistency was 86.2% in the third quarter compared to 86% in the second quarter. Persistency continues to serve as an important driver of the growth and embedded value of our insured portfolio.

第三季的 12 個月持續率為 86.2%，而第二季為 86%。持久性持續成為我們保險投資組合成長和內在價值的重要驅動力。

Net premiums earned in the third quarter were a record $130.1 million, compared to $126 million in the second quarter. We earned $864,000 from the cancellation of single premium policies in the third quarter compared to $1.1 million in the second quarter.

第三季淨保費收入達到創紀錄的 1.301 億美元，而第二季為 1.26 億美元。第三季取消躉繳保費保單為我們帶來了 864,000 美元的收入，而第二季為 110 萬美元。

Net yield for the quarter was 27 basis points, up from 26.7 basis points in the second quarter. Core yield, which excludes the cost of our reinsurance coverage and the contribution from cancellation earnings was 33.9 basis points, up from 33.8 basis points in the second quarter.

本季淨收益率為 27 個基點，高於第二季的 26.7 個基點。核心收益率（不包括再保險成本和取消收益的貢獻）為 33.9 個基點，高於第二季的 33.8 個基點。

Investment income was $17.9 million in the third quarter compared to $16.5 million in the second quarter. Total revenue was a record $148.2 million in the third quarter, up 4% compared to the second quarter and 13% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Underwriting and operating expenses were $27.7 million in the third quarter, compared to $27.4 million in the second quarter.

第三季的投資收入為 1,790 萬美元，而第二季的投資收入為 1,650 萬美元。 Total revenue was a record $148.2 million in the third quarter, up 4% compared to the second quarter and 13% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Underwriting and operating expenses were $27.7 million in the third quarter, compared to $27.4 million in the second四分之一.

Our expense ratio was 21.3% compared to 21.8% in the second quarter. We had 4,594 defaults as of September 30 compared to 4,349 as of June 30, and our default rate was 74 basis points at quarter end.

我們的費用率為 21.3%，而第二季為 21.8%。截至 9 月 30 日，我們有 4,594 筆違約，而截至 6 月 30 日，我們有 4,349 筆違約，季末我們的違約率為 74 個基點。

Claims expense in the third quarter was $4.8 million compared to $2.9 million in the second quarter. We have a uniquely high-quality insured portfolio and our claims experience continues to benefit from the discipline with which we have shaped our book and the strong position of our existing borrowers as well as the broad resiliency we're seeing in the housing market.

第三季的索賠費用為 480 萬美元，而第二季的索賠費用為 290 萬美元。我們擁有獨特的高品質保險組合，我們的索賠經驗繼續受益於我們制定帳簿的紀律、現有借款人的強勢地位以及我們在房地產市場看到的廣泛彈性。

Interest expense in the quarter was $8.1 million. Net income was a record $84 million or $1 per diluted share, up 5% compared to $0.95 per diluted share in the second quarter and 12% compared to $0.90 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2022.

本季利息支出為 810 萬美元。淨利潤達到創紀錄的8,400 萬美元，即稀釋後每股1 美元，與第二季稀釋後每股0.95 美元相比增長5%，與2022 年第三季稀釋後每股0.90 美元相比增長12 %。

Total cash and investments were $2.4 billion at quarter end, including $134 million of cash and investments at the holding company.

截至季末，現金和投資總額為 24 億美元，其中控股公司的現金和投資為 1.34 億美元。

Shareholders' equity as of September 30 was $1.8 billion, and book value per share was $21.94. Book value per share, excluding the impact of net unrealized gains and losses in the investment portfolio was $24.56, up 4% compared to the second quarter and 18% compared to the third quarter of last year.

截至9月30日的股東權益為18億美元，每股帳面價值為21.94美元。扣除投資組合中未實現淨損益的影響，每股帳面價值為24.56美元，比第二季成長4%，比去年第三季成長18%。

In the third quarter, we repurchased $19.2 million of common stock, retiring 675,000 shares at an average price of $28.51. As of September 30, we had $208 million of repurchase capacity remaining under our existing program.

第三季度，我們回購了 1,920 萬美元的普通股，以 28.51 美元的平均價格回購了 675,000 股。截至 9 月 30 日，我們現有計畫下仍有 2.08 億美元的回購能力。

At quarter end, we reported total available assets under PMIERs of $2.6 billion and risk-based required assets of $1.4 billion. Excess available assets were $1.2 billion.

截至季末，我們報告 PMIER 下的可用資產總額為 26 億美元，基於風險的所需資產為 14 億美元。剩餘可用資產為 12 億美元。

In summary, we delivered standout financial results during the third quarter with continued growth in our high-quality insured portfolio, record top line performance, favorable credit experience and continued expense efficiency driving record bottom line profitability and strong returns.

總而言之，我們在第三季度取得了出色的財務業績，高品質的保險投資組合持續增長，創紀錄的營收業績，良好的信貸體驗以及持續的費用效率推動了創紀錄的盈利能力和強勁的回報。

With that, let me turn it back to Adam.

說到這裡，讓我把話題轉回亞當身上。

Thank you, Ravi. Overall, we had a terrific quarter, once again delivering significant new business production, continued growth in our high-quality insured portfolio and record financial performance.

謝謝你，拉維。總體而言，我們度過了一個出色的季度，再次實現了顯著的新業務產出，高品質的保險投資組合持續成長，並創下了創紀錄的財務業績。

Looking forward, while the macro environment continues to evolve, we are encouraged by the tremendous resiliency that we've seen in the economy and housing market thus far and are confident that the disciplined approach we've taken to managing our business from day 1 will continue to drive our performance.

展望未來，雖然宏觀環境不斷變化，但我們對迄今為止在經濟和房地產市場中看到的巨大彈性感到鼓舞，並相信我們從第一天起就採取的嚴格業務管理方法將繼續推動我們的業績。

We have a strong customer franchise, a talented team driving us forward every day, an exceptionally high-quality book covered by a comprehensive set of risk transfer solutions and a robust balance sheet supported by the significant earnings power of our platform. Taken together, we are well positioned to continue delivering differentiated growth, returns and value for our shareholders.

我們擁有強大的客戶群、每天推動我們前進的才華橫溢的團隊、包含一整套風險轉移解決方案的高品質書籍，以及由我們平台的巨大盈利能力支持的穩健的資產負債表。總而言之，我們有能力繼續為股東提供差異化的成長、回報和價值。

Thank you for joining us today. I'll now ask the operator to come back on so we can take your questions.

感謝您今天加入我們。我現在請接線員回來，以便我們回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

Just wanted to talk a little bit about the expense ratio. Again, tick down and '23 will be a step forward versus '22. At what point do you sort of asymptotically approach the threshold where you don't continue to build operating leverage? And what level would you see that sort of -- what ratio would you see that being?

只是想談談費用比率。再次勾選，「23」將比「22」向前邁出一步。什麼時候你會逐漸接近不再繼續建立營運槓桿的門檻？你會看到什麼樣的水平——你會看到什麼樣的比例？

Yes, Rick, it's nice to hear from you. I'll start and then let Ravi answer with specifics about expense ratio in the quarter and where it might trend, but I want to offer a broader perspective on our operating expenses and how we think about it really as a strategic matter.

是的，瑞克，很高興收到你的來信。我將首先讓拉維回答有關本季度費用比率及其可能趨勢的具體信息，但我想就我們的營運費用以及我們如何將其真正視為戰略問題提供更廣泛的視角。

Broadly speaking, we have always been focused on managing our business with discipline and efficiency. And candidly, we believe that we have a sustained expense advantage with the lowest absolute dollars of operating expense in the MI sector by a wide margin.

從廣義上講，我們始終專注於以紀律和效率管理我們的業務。坦白說，我們相信我們擁有持續的費用優勢，在 MI 行業中營業費用絕對值最低，並且大幅領先。

In terms of the benefits that we always talk about that you'll recognize, the financial impact is an obvious one, right? Lower expenses allow us to generate consistently stronger returns naturally. But there's also a real strategic aspect, real strategic value that's often overlooked and it feeds directly into our risk management approach and the flexibility that we have to more actively shape the profile of our high-quality insured portfolio.

就我們經常談論的您會認識到的好處而言，財務影響是顯而易見的，對吧？較低的費用使我們自然能夠持續產生更強勁的回報。但還有一個真正的策略面，真正的策略價值經常被忽視，它直接影響我們的風險管理方法和我們必須更積極地塑造我們高品質保險投資組合的靈活性。

As a financial matter, we write business and price our policies to generate an adequate return on capital, right? We need premium revenue coming in to absorb our operating expenses, our loss costs, our funding needs and taxes. And with our expense advantage, we simply don't need to have a higher concentration of higher risk, higher-yielding business coming in to cover our operating base. And so we can and have been achieving best-in-class returns while also taking the most proactive and disciplined approach to managing our mix of business and a large part of that flexibility and our ability to deliver consistently strong returns while being the most discerning from a risk standpoint, actually traces a lot to the discipline that we continue to carry on the operating expense side.

作為財務問題，我們撰寫業務並對保單定價以產生足夠的資本回報，對吧？我們需要溢價收入來吸收我們的營運費用、損失成本、資金需求和稅收。憑藉我們的費用優勢，我們根本不需要更集中的高風險、高收益業務來涵蓋我們的營運基礎。因此，我們能夠而且一直在實現一流的回報，同時採取最積極主動和最嚴格的方法來管理我們的業務組合，並在很大程度上實現靈活性和我們提供持續強勁回報的能力，同時保持最敏銳的洞察力。從風險的角度來看，實際上很大程度上可以追溯到我們在營運費用方面繼續執行的紀律。

So I'll let Ravi answer the specifics about operating expense, but we really think about expense advantage as a core strategic advantage for us, not just the numbers and a model expense ratio.

因此，我將讓拉維回答有關營運費用的具體問題，但我們確實將費用優勢視為我們的核心策略優勢，而不僅僅是數字和模型費用比率。

And Adam, I would just add that where that strength comes from and that advantage comes from just us having the smallest head count by a wide margin. And we also benefit from a de novo IT platform that's scalable, efficient and flexible. And a lot of that benefit came through again in Q3 with our 21.3% expense ratio.

亞當，我想補充一點，這種力量和優勢來自於我們擁有最少的人數。我們也受惠於可擴展、高效且靈活的從頭 IT 平台。第三季度，我們的費用比率達到 21.3%，許多好處再次反映出來。

And really, we've talked about this in the past, Rick, we do expect our dollars of OpEx to grow because we continue to invest in people, technology, risk management and in growth. But we're really happy about the way our expense profile in particular, has performed over time, and our expense ratio is really what we're focused on.

事實上，我們過去已經討論過這個問題，Rick，我們確實預計我們的營運支出會成長，因為我們繼續投資於人員、技術、風險管理和成長。但我們對我們的費用狀況尤其是隨著時間的推移的表現感到非常高興，而且我們的費用比率確實是我們關注的重點。

Now OpEx, we think we're going to continue to be in our long-term range of mid- to low 20s, and we're delighted to achieve that in Q3, and we're certainly optimistic about managing in a disciplined manner and driving efficiency for the future.

現在，我們認為營運支出將繼續保持在 20 左右的長期範圍內，我們很高興在第三季度實現這一目標，我們當然對以嚴格的方式進行管理持樂觀態度，並且為未來提高效率。

Yes. Look, rate of improvement is obviously going to slow from such a low base. We've got the lowest expense ratio broadly, the lowest dollars of expense absolutely in the industry. So we'll see where that trend is going forward. But right now, we're in a really good position with the efficiency we carry.

是的。看起來，從如此低的基數來看，改善速度顯然會放緩。我們的費用率總體上是業界最低的，絕對是業界中最低的費用。因此，我們將看看這一趨勢的未來發展。但現在，我們的效率確實處於非常有利的位置。

No. I appreciate the comments on the strategic benefit or advantage it creates as well. I mean at the end of the day, I probably am a little more numbers in the model guy and focused on that, but it's an important observation as well.

不。我也很欣賞對其所創造的戰略利益或優勢的評論。我的意思是，歸根結底，我可能會在模型中扮演更多的角色並專注於這一點，但這也是一個重要的觀察。

Next question comes from Bose George with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Bose George。

It looks like your provision for new notices has trended down, especially compared to 1Q where it was up pretty meaningfully. Is that accurate? And can you just discuss drivers for reserving for new notices and how that's kind of changed over the past year?

看來你們對新通知的準備金呈下降趨勢，特別是與第一季相比，第一季的準備金大幅上升。準確嗎？您能否討論一下預訂新通知的司機以及過去一年中這種情況發生了怎樣的變化？

So Bose, nice to hear from you. Certainly new defaults. What I would say, generally, they've had the same attributes as they have in recent quarters. What I would highlight to you is that we've been in a rising home price environment. We've essentially had 3 additional months to model into our reserving process.

Bose，很高興收到您的來信。當然是新的預設值。我想說的是，總的來說，他們具有與最近幾季相同的屬性。我想向您強調的是，我們一直處於房價上漲的環境中。我們基本上還有 3 個月的時間來模擬我們的預訂流程。

And I would just say, broadly speaking, we tend to anchor to downside scenarios. And that really does come into our Q3 position. But we've moderated the expectation for strain, just given the broad resiliency in the macro environment, and frankly, how house prices have been performing so far. And so you see that change sort of quarter-over-quarter driven by those aspects.

我只想說，從廣義上講，我們傾向於錨定下行情境。這確實屬於我們第三季的位置。但考慮到宏觀環境的廣泛彈性，以及坦白說，到目前為止房價的表現，我們已經緩和了對壓力的預期。所以你會看到這種變化是由這些方面推動的季度環比變化。

Okay. It definitely makes sense. And then actually, you have a statistic, the quarterly runoff -- and I was just curious how that ties in with the annual persistency because that number has kind of ticked up over the last couple of quarters. Is that just a quarterly persistency or just -- yes, can you just discuss that?

好的。這絕對是有道理的。事實上，你有一個統計數據，季度徑流——我只是很好奇它與年度持久性有何關係，因為這個數字在過去幾個季度有所上升。這只是一個季度的持續性還是只是——是的，你能討論一下嗎？

Yes, that's exactly right. So those are 12-month persistency number that we look at. It simply measures the business that was on our books 12 months earlier. What percentage of that remains as of September 30. The quarterly runoff -- technically run off is the inverse of persistency. But what that's looking at is the rate of runoff of the business that was on our books as of June 30 of this year, how much has run off by the time we get to September 30.

是的，完全正確。這些是我們關注的 12 個月持續性數字。它只是衡量 12 個月前我們帳面上的業務。截至 9 月 30 日，剩餘百分比是多少。季度徑流—從技術上講，徑流是持久性的倒數。但我們所關注的是截至今年 6 月 30 日我們帳面上的業務流失率，即到 9 月 30 日時流失了多少。

Okay. So if I annualize that, does it suggest that the runoff, the persistency is kind of better at a quarterly pace versus what we see on the annual number? Or is that not sort of doable?

好的。因此，如果我將其按年計算，是否表明按季度計算的徑流、持久性比我們在年度數據中看到的更好？或者說這不太可行​​？

No, it's going to be the inverse, right? So rate of runoff is the inverse of persistency. That which leaves us isn't obviously staying on our books, but we've talked for a while that our persistency in terms of the trend going forward.

不，這將是相反的，對嗎？所以徑流率是持久性的倒數。留給我們的顯然不會留在我們的書本上，但我們已經談論了一段時間我們對未來趨勢的堅持。

Right now, our persistency is well above historical trends. We expect that, that will remain the case, but we're probably getting to upper bounds as to where it will sit and may see some migration, whether it's a touch up, a touch down as we roll forward.

目前，我們的堅持遠高於歷史趨勢。我們預計情況仍將如此，但我們可能會達到其所處位置的上限，並且可能會看到一些遷移，無論是在我們向前滾動時向上還是向下。

Next question comes from Maxwell Fritscher with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Maxwell Fritscher。

I'm calling in for Mark Hughes. I'm sorry if I missed it, but were there any share buybacks this quarter?

我要找馬克·休斯。如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，這個季度有股票回購嗎？

Yes, there were. In Q3, we bought back $19.2 million of shares, approximately 675,000 shares in Q3.

是有。第三季度，我們回購了 1,920 萬美元的股票，即第三季約 675,000 股。

And the question was asked last quarter. Figured I -- it would be helpful to give you an updated view on what concerns NMI the most right now in the current environment with, as you mentioned, rising prices and still low default rates?

這個問題是上個季度提出的。我想，在當前環境下，正如您所提到的，價格上漲且違約率仍然較低，向您提供有關 NMI 目前最關心的問題的最新觀點會有所幫助嗎？

Yes. Look, I'd say it's our job as risk managers to look for concerns around every corner, and we certainly do that. So we stress ourselves around a whole variety of matters. We look internally, right? Are there things around how we're structured, what we're focused on, what we're doing that should give us cost for concern. Thankfully, there aren't. We're performing at an exceptionally high level and delivering real core operating strength across our portfolio, across our people, our culture, our expense base, our IT platform. So everything that it takes for us to manage the business internally.

是的。你看，我想說，身為風險管理者，我們的工作就是尋找各個角落的問題，我們當然會這樣做。所以我們在各種各樣的事情上給自己壓力。我們向內看，對嗎？我們的結構、我們的重點是什麼、我們正在做什麼等方面是否存在一些值得我們關注的成本。值得慶幸的是，沒有。我們的表現非常高，並在我們的產品組合、我們的員工、我們的文化、我們的費用基礎和我們的 IT 平台上提供真正的核心營運實力。因此，我們需要在內部管理業務所需的一切。

And so then we look externally. And we spent some time talking for a while now that we're in an environment where even though we've seen tremendous resiliency in the economy broadly and the housing market in particular, we still think that risk is elevated to a degree, right? We're not at the back end of whatever we're in right now. And candidly, over the last several months, we've seen, let's say, the volume in terms of external risk factors perhaps turn up a bit, right?

那我們就向外看。我們花了一些時間討論了現在我們所處的環境，儘管我們看到經濟廣泛，特別是房地產市場的巨大彈性，但我們仍然認為風險在一定程度上升高，對嗎？我們現在並沒有處於任何情況的最後階段。坦白說，在過去的幾個月裡，我們可以說，外部風險因素的數量可能會增加，對吧？

We have significant incremental geopolitical instability. We have this sector, the U.S. government shut down a few weeks forward. We still have long rates that are increasing with uncertainty as to what that will ultimately mean for the economy.

我們的地緣政治不穩定因素顯著增加。我們有這個部門，美國政府幾週後就關閉了。我們的長期利率仍在上升，但最終對經濟意味著什麼存在不確定性。

And so when -- we're focused on risk right now, the items that we're most focused on that we're most concerned about, naturally are those that will touch borrower performance and consumer performance, it's the macro, it's house price paths. It's where unemployment might go in response to all of these environmental factors that surround us.

因此，當我們現在關注風險時，我們最關注的項目自然是那些會影響借款人表現和消費者表現的項目，這是宏觀，是房價路徑。這就是我們周圍所有這些環境因素導致失業的原因。

Your next question comes from Eric Hagen with BTIG.

您的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Eric Hagen。

Can you maybe elaborate on what you're seeing with respect to what I think I heard you say is a balanced and constructive pricing market. And are you maybe surprised that it's not more competitive or being characterized that way, just given how slow new origination activity is in the market?

您能否詳細說明您所看到的關於我認為我聽到您所說的平衡和建設性定價市場的情況。考慮到市場上新的發起活動有多緩慢，您是否可能會感到驚訝，因為它沒有更具競爭力或以這種方式被描述？

No. It's -- again, it's a very good question. And let me touch then both on the origination environment itself as well as on the pricing environment. I'll start with pricing. But broadly speaking, we continue to be really encouraged by the discipline that we see across the market. And what I'd say is a really deliberate approach that the industry is taking.

不，這又是一個非常好的問題。讓我談談起源環境本身以及定價環境。我將從定價開始。但總的來說，我們仍然對整個市場的紀律感到鼓舞。我想說的是，該行業正在採取一種經過深思熟慮的方法。

We've noted for a while now that rates have hardened and what we call laddered higher in view of emerging macro risks over the last year or so. And we were able to achieve incremental pricing where we believed it was both necessary and appropriate. Today, where we should be, right? We're at a point where pricing is meaningfully higher than it was in mid-2022. And it's holding in a constructive way.

我們已經注意到，鑑於過去一年左右出現的宏觀風險，利率已經走強，我們稱之為階梯式走高。我們能夠在我們認為必要且適當的情況下實現增量定價。今天，我們應該在哪裡，對吧？我們現在的定價明顯高於 2022 年中期的水準。而且它以一種建設性的方式保持著。

And from our vantage point, we're still focused every day on ensuring that we strike the right balance to fully and fairly support our customers and their borrowers but also recognize that macro risk from a forward look standpoint is still elevated, and we need to account for that through price and also for us, importantly through risk selection. And so we're not surprised at all.

從我們的角度來看，我們仍然每天專注於確保我們達到適當的平衡，以充分和公平地支持我們的客戶及其借款人，但我們也認識到，從前瞻性角度來看，宏觀風險仍然很高，我們需要透過價格來解釋這一點，對我們來說也是如此，重要的是透過風險選擇。所以我們一點也不感到驚訝。

We think that the heavy investment in the sector and the deployment of risk-based pricing tools lends itself to great value in an environment where the potential for risk is still more elevated.

我們認為，在風險潛力仍然較高的環境下，對該行業的大量投資和基於風險的定價工具的部署具有巨大的價值。

You touched on a question around origination volume. And obviously, look, we're not where we were at peak points during the pandemic with record years in 2020, 2021 and even a bit more in 2022. But it is still a very constructive environment, new business environment from an MI standpoint, right? Ours is primarily a purchase-driven product.

您談到了有關原始數量的問題。顯然，我們還沒有達到疫情期間的高峰，2020 年、2021 年甚至 2022 年都創下了紀錄。但從 MI 的角度來看，這仍然是一個非常有建設性的環境、新的商業環境，正確的？我們的產品主要是購買驅動型產品。

And to give you a sense, the purchase origination market this year is expected to come in at about $1.3 trillion, which is exactly the same size as in 2019. 2019 was a very constructive MIU business environment. And as we look forward to next year, general forecast contemplate around $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion purchase market, up from 2023, up from a pre-pandemic normalized level in 2019.

給大家一個感覺，今年的採購發起市場預計約為 1.3 兆美元，與 2019 年的規模完全相同。2019 年是一個非常有建設性的 MIU 商業環境。當我們展望明年時，整體預測認為 2023 年的購買市場規模約為 1.4 兆至 1.5 兆美元，高於 2019 年大流行前的正常水平。

And so yes, the headlines are obviously about a slowing level of activity on the origination side. We're seeing that stress emerge through the originators themselves, but ours as a primarily purchase-focused market, the new business opportunity is sustained at an attractive point.

所以，是的，頭條新聞顯然是關於發起方的活動水平放緩。我們看到壓力是透過發起者本身出現的，但我們作為一個主要以購買為中心的市場，新的商業機會持續在一個有吸引力的點。

Yes. That's really helpful. So is there a scenario where delinquencies could pick up at some point? I recognize that they're very low and stable to begin with. But is there a scenario where delinquencies could pick up with the severity rate that's applied to those delinquencies stays stable or even comes down? Or is it rational to assume that they kind of move together, if you will.

是的。這真的很有幫助。那麼，是否存在拖欠率可能會在某個時刻加劇的情況呢？我認識到它們一開始就非常低且穩定。但是否存在一種情況，即拖欠率可能會上升，而適用於這些拖欠率的嚴重率會保持穩定甚至下降？或者如果你願意的話，假設它們是一起移動的，這是合理的嗎？

So it's a good question. I'd say the expectations for both frequency and severity. So once -- what we tend to see happen is that the incidence of default is tied most directly to unemployment. When borrowers (inaudible), they've lost their jobs and importantly, they can't find reemployment opportunities very quickly, that's when we might see defaults increase, the number of defaults. .

所以這是一個好問題。我想說的是對頻率和嚴重程度的期望。因此，我們往往會看到違約發生率與失業最直接相關。當借款人（聽不清楚）時，他們失去了工作，重要的是，他們無法很快找到再就業機會，那時我們可能會看到違約增加，違約數量增加。 。

The actual reserve that we established against those defaults were the severity assumption but also the frequency assumption comes into play, right? So severity being -- if this default progresses to a claim payment, which is ultimately a foreclosure or some other means to which the borrower is being removed from their home and were presented with a claim. How much do we owe and frequency is, well, what's the likelihood that, that progression itself will happen. The incidence of default tied to primarily to unemployment. Both frequency and severity are more heavily influenced by house price paths.

我們針對這些違約建立的實際準備金是嚴重性假設，但頻率假設也發揮了作用，對嗎？因此，嚴重性在於，如果這種違約行為發展到索賠付款，這最終會導致喪失抵押品贖回權或透過其他方式將借款人從他們的房屋中驅逐出來並提出索賠。我們欠多少錢和頻率就是，這種進展本身發生的可能性是多少。違約發生率主要與失業有關。頻率和嚴重程度都更受房價路徑的影響。

And so generally speaking, we would assume that there's going to be a reasonably close relationship between house price path and unemployment levels because obviously, in a supply-demand-driven environment, demand is tied to gainful employment by many prospective borrowers. But that's not always the case. If we saw an increase in default activity, but we didn't see a corresponding stream come through the housing market in terms of house price paths we wouldn't necessarily see, I'll call it, a one-to-one relationship where you have an increase in default that's carried with a fundamental shift in the reserving assumptions.

因此，一般來說，我們假設房價走勢與失業率水準之間存在相當密切的關係，因為顯然，在供需驅動的環境中，需求與許多潛在藉款人的有酬就業掛鉤。但情況並非總是如此。如果我們看到違約活動增加，但我們沒有看到房地產市場在房價路徑方面出現相應的流動，我們不一定會看到，我稱之為一對一的關係，其中違約率增加，這伴隨著準備金假設的根本轉變。

Right. And Adam, I think you've mentioned this in the past that it's important to recognize that we don't apply sort of blanket assumptions to our reserving process. And so we do a loan level analysis every quarter and these are macro-driven models that allow us to come to a conclusion about our reserving process based on the individual profile of each of our defaulted borrowers.

正確的。亞當，我想你過去已經提到過這一點，重要的是要認識到我們不會在我們的預訂過程中應用某種籠統的假設。因此，我們每個季度都會進行貸款水平分析，這些是宏觀驅動的模型，使我們能夠根據每個違約借款人的個人資料得出有關我們的準備金流程的結論。

Your next question comes from Daniel (inaudible) with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的丹尼爾（聽不清楚）。

Your average portfolio yields continue to increase at a pretty nice clip. Can you just talk about like the dynamic between the yield on new investments versus the overall portfolio yield?

你的平均投資組合收益率持續以相當不錯的速度成長。能談談新投資報酬率與整體投資組合報酬率之間的動態嗎？

So we've seen yields inflect higher over the last few quarters. And -- and so from that perspective, it's generally -- it's been generally stable, and it's had a favorable trend in Q3. And what we're seeing with respect to net yield is -- it's been 27 basis points, and our core year yield was 33.9 basis points where both were up modestly. And I think we're benefiting from both the continued increases in persistency and the rate actions we've taken and those cumulative gains we've achieved in new business pricing over the last year plus. And it's balanced somewhat by the high-quality production that we generate and sometimes -- and that naturally comes in at sort of a different rate profile.

因此，我們看到過去幾季殖利率走高。所以從這個角度來看，總體來說，它總體上是穩定的，並且在第三季有一個有利的趨勢。我們看到的淨收益率是 27 個基點，我們的核心年收益率為 33.9 個基點，兩者均小幅上漲。我認為，我們正在受益於我們所採​​取的持續性和利率行動的持續成長，以及我們在過去一年多的新業務定價中取得的累積收益。它在某種程度上透過我們有時產生的高品質產品來平衡——這自然會以不同的速率曲線出現。

Also just to round it out. So we think about yield and the headline word yield across both the premium yield on the in-force portfolio and what it allows us to generate from a premium revenue standpoint. We've certainly been inflecting higher there for several quarters now, which is terrific. We also talk about yield in an increasingly focused way in terms of the investment portfolio.

也只是為了圓潤它。因此，我們會考慮有效投資組合的溢價收益率以及它允許我們從溢價收入的角度產生的收益和標題詞收益率。當然，我們已經連續幾個季度走高了，這非常棒。我們也以越來越集中的方式談論投資組合的收益率。

And from an investment portfolio standpoint, we're seeing the same dynamic. The pretax book yield on our portfolio was 2.8% and it continues to move higher as lower yielding maturities run off, and we're investing at meaningfully higher new money rates. To give you a spread for that delta that you're focused on, we're currently seeing new money opportunities at a blended average rate of around 5.5% compared to the 2.8% book yield on the portfolio. .

從投資組合的角度來看，我們看到了同樣的動態。我們投資組合的稅前帳面收益率為 2.8%，隨著低收益率到期債券的消失，該收益率繼續走高，而且我們正在以明顯更高的新貨幣利率進行投資。為了讓您關注的 Delta 利差，我們目前看到新的資金機會，混合平均利率約為 5.5%，而投資組合的帳面收益率為 2.8%。 。

That's great detail. And then you mentioned earlier, you have like a lot of active conversation with policymakers. I was just curious if you see any like regulatory developments that could materially change the business or like the industry or are things relatively quiet at the moment?

這是非常詳細的。您之前提到，您與政策制定者進行了很多積極的對話。我只是很好奇，您是否看到任何類似的監管發展可能會實質地改變業務或喜歡這個行業，或者目前情況相對平靜？

Yes. It's Brad. So as we said, we do have active dialogue with FHFA and GSEs. We always have and we value the consistency and transparency of that engagement.

是的。這是布拉德。正如我們所說，我們確實與 FHFA 和 GSE 進行了積極對話。我們一直以來都重視這種參與的一致性和透明度。

As you can imagine, there are a range of items that we discussed. Our most recent conversations surround access, affordability and fairness and those remain points of focus among a broad range of other issues, but nothing really critical pending right at the moment.

正如您可以想像的那樣，我們討論了一系列項目。我們最近的對話圍繞著准入、負擔能力和公平性，這些仍然是廣泛其他問題中的焦點，但目前沒有什麼真正重要的懸而未決的問題。

Your next question comes from Geoffrey Dunn with Dowling.

您的下一個問題來自道林的傑弗裡·鄧恩。

Adam, I wanted to ask you about vintage seasoning and specifically, there's going to come a time where the '22, '23 books, higher loan vintages, higher interest rates, they stick to season out and take more effect of the earnings profile and credit results, but I'm curious, as you look at the '19 through '21 vintages, are those developing along the same curves? Or is the unique low interest rate profile, maybe elongating those curves and is there any potential for that maybe softening when the '22 and '23 hit a couple of years out from now?

亞當，我想問你關於年份調味的問題，具體來說，將會有這樣一個時期，'22、'23 的書籍、更高的貸款年份、更高的利率，他們會堅持季節變化並對盈利狀況產生更大的影響，信用結果，但我很好奇，當你觀察 19 至 21 年份時，它們是否沿著相同的曲線發展？或者是獨特的低利率狀況，可能會拉長這些曲線，並且當幾年後的“22”和“23”到來時，這種曲線是否有可能軟化？

Yes. Jeff, it's a good question. And look, obviously, we spent a lot of time talking about how our existing borrowers, broadly speaking, are so well situated to manage through both good times and also to the extent that a stress environment emerges because they have significant embedded equity in their homes. Because we're in an environment today with high employment, very low unemployment, they're all gainfully employed. And because they are locked in with record low 30-year fixed rate notes that provide them with a manageable debt service obligation.

是的。傑夫，這是個好問題。顯然，我們花了很多時間討論我們現有的借款人，從廣義上講，如何能夠很好地應對好時光，以及出現的壓力環境，因為他們在房屋中擁有大量的嵌入資產。因為我們今天處於一個就業率高、失業率極低的環境，所以他們都是有酬就業的。而且因為他們被鎖定了史上最低的 30 年期固定利率票據，這為他們提供了可控的償債義務。

Obviously, as we look forward, as we sort of progress the production stream from '22 and through '23, we're seeing more and more borrowers in the portfolio that had equally strong credit characteristics as those who came into the portfolio in earlier periods, but they're carrying higher note rates.

顯然，正如我們所期待的，隨著我們從 22 年到 23 年的生產流程取得進展，我們看到投資組合中越來越多的借款人與早期進入投資組合的借款人具有同樣強大的信用特徵，但它們的票據利率更高。

And so what does that mean, right? What does that mean for portfolio performance going forward. I think one critical piece is that they are -- we're still seeing the same rigor -- the same rigor from an underwriting standpoint that's applied on the origination side. That hasn't shifted. These are borrowers that are fully vetted, that are tested where their ability to pay and support their mortgages is evaluated and there's an affirmative decision made upfront. So that's a positive. Even though the rate itself is higher, these are borrowers who've obviously been underwritten, assuming that rate will carry forward, and we're comfortable with the debt obligations that they have.

那麼這意味著什麼，對吧？這對未來的投資組合表現意味著什麼？我認為一個關鍵的一點是，我們仍然看到同樣的嚴格性——從承保的角度來看，同樣的嚴格性也適用於發起人。這一點沒有改變。這些借款人經過全面審查，接受測試，評估他們支付和支持抵押貸款的能力，並預先做出肯定的決定。所以這是積極的。儘管利率本身較高，但這些借款人顯然已經得到承保，假設利率將結轉，我們對他們所承擔的債務義務感到滿意。

As we look forward, the bigger driver of credit performance that we see that may shift the experience we see for the '22 and '23 production years compared to, say, 2019 through 2021, it's really the house price path, right? The borrowers who are in their homes and in their loans for several years now, benefited from an extraordinary house price appreciation environment through the course of the pandemic that we may not see again ever or certainly for some time.

展望未來，我們看到的信貸表現的更大驅動因素可能會改變我們在 22 和 23 生產年中看到的經驗，與 2019 年到 2021 年相比，這確實是房價路徑，對嗎？多年來一直在自己的房屋和貸款中的借款人受益於大流行期間非凡的房價升值環境，我們可能永遠不會或在一段時間內肯定不會再看到這種情況。

And so the appreciated equity position of the borrowers who begin to face stress just as a natural seasoning of the portfolio happens from the '22 and '23 book years will be different in its implication than what we see now and we've seen for the 2019 through 2021 borrowers. But that's not necessarily related to the note rate. It's really just about the house price path going forward.

因此，隨著 22 和 23 書年投資組合的自然調整，開始面臨壓力的借款人的股本頭寸升值，其含義將與我們現在看到的以及我們在過去幾年中看到的有所不同。2019年至2021 年的借款人。但這與票據利率沒有必然關係。這其實與未來房價的走勢有關。

At the end of the day borrower with 35 DTI, whether they get there with an 8% mortgage or a 3% mortgage still has a 35 DTI. A borrower with a 45 DTI, whether it's an 8% or 3% note rate, it's still the same calculation in terms of their, call it, their debt service coverage.

最終，擁有 35 DTI 的借款人，無論他們以 8% 抵押貸款還是 3% 抵押貸款到達那裡，仍然擁有 35 DTI。對於 DTI 為 45 的借款人，無論票據利率是 8% 還是 3%，就其償債覆蓋率而言，其計算結果仍然相同。

Okay. And then as you think about the assumptions you're making for your incremental reserving for particularly the assumption on home prices. How negative can you anchor given the tightness of the housing supply?

好的。然後，當您考慮為增量儲備所做的假設時，特別是對房價的假設。考慮到住房供應緊張，你能錨定多少負面影響？

Look, how negative can we anchor. I'd say, we have a responsibility to use -- to establish a best estimate. But for reserving purposes, we talked for some time that we always aim to take an appropriate but also an appropriately conservative view. And so in practice, what that generally means is that we do anchor more to our downside scenarios when setting our reserve position. We naturally have to balance that by what we're actually seeing today. What we see today has to inform at all times our view of what's going to happen tomorrow. .

看看，我們可以錨定到多麼消極的程度。我想說，我們有責任建立最佳估計。但出於保留的目的，我們討論了一段時間，我們始終致力於採取適當但也適當保守的觀點。因此，在實踐中，這通常意味著我們在設定儲備頭寸時確實更關注下行情景。我們自然必須根據我們今天實際看到的情況來平衡這一點。我們今天所看到的一切必須隨時告訴我們對明天將要發生的事情的看法。 。

And so as Ravi mentioned, at September 30, we did moderate our expectations for economic strain and house price declines that are embedded in our reserve position. But we also are still embedding a stress bias in our analysis.

正如拉維所提到的，在 9 月 30 日，我們確實緩和了對經濟壓力和房價下跌的預期，這些預期包含在我們的儲備金中。但我們的分析中仍存在壓力偏差。

This concludes our question and answer session. I'll now hand back for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將作結束語。

Well, thank you again for joining us. We'll be hosting our annual Investor Day on Thursday, November 16, in New York and will be participating in the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference on December 5. We look forward to speaking with you again soon.

好的，再次感謝您加入我們。我們將於 11 月 16 日星期四在紐約舉辦年度投資者日活動，並將參加 12 月 5 日舉行的高盛金融服務會議。我們期待很快再次與您交談。

This conference has now concluded. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

本次會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。