NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the NMI Holdings Inc third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加NMI Holdings Inc. 2025年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to John Swenson of management. Please go ahead.

現在我將會議交給管理部的約翰‧斯文森先生。請開始吧。

Thank you, Gary. Good afternoon, and welcome to the 2025 third quarter conference call for National MI. I'm John Swenson, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Joining us on the call today are Brad Shuster, Executive Chairman; Adam Pollitzer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Aurora Swithenbank, our Chief Financial Officer. Financial results for the quarter were released after the close today. The press release may be accessed on NMI's website located at nationalmi.com under the Investors tab.

謝謝 Gary。下午好，歡迎參加 National MI 2025 年第三季業績電話會議。我是投資者關係和財務副總裁 John Swenson。今天參加會議的還有執行董事長 Brad Shuster、總裁兼執行長 Adam Pollitzer 以及財務長 Aurora Swithenbank。本季財務業績已於今日收盤後發布。您可以在 National MI 網站 nationalmi.com 的「投資者」專欄下查看新聞稿。

During the course of this call, we may make comments about our expectations for the future. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements. Additional information about the factors that could cause actual results or trends to differ materially from those discussed on the call can be found on our website or through our filings with the SEC.

在本次電話會議中，我們可能會對未來預期發表評論。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中所包含的內容有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果或趨勢與本次電話會議討論內容存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，請訪問我們的網站或查閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

If and to the extent the company makes forward-looking statements, we do not undertake any obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent developments. Further, no one should rely on the fact that the guidance of such statements is current at any time other than the time of this call. Also note that on this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP measures. In today's press release and on our website, we provided a reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable measures under GAAP.

公司若作出前瞻性陳述，並不承擔因後續發展而更新這些陳述的任何義務。此外，除本次電話會議召開之時外，任何人均不應依賴此類陳述的指導意見在任何其他時間仍然有效。另請注意，在本次電話會議中，我們可能會提及某些非GAAP指標。在今天的新聞稿和公司網站上，我們提供了這些指標與最接近的GAAP指標的調節表。

Now I'll turn the call over to Brad.

現在我把電話交給布拉德。

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to report that in the third quarter, National MI again delivered standout operating performance, continued growth in our insured portfolio and strong financial results. Our lenders and their borrowers continued to turn to us for critical down payment support. And in the third quarter, we generated $13 billion of NIW volume, ending the period with a record $218.4 billion of high-quality, high-performing primary insurance-in-force.

謝謝約翰，大家下午好。我很高興地報告，在第三季度，National MI再次取得了卓越的營運業績，我們的保險組合持續成長，財務表現也十分強勁。我們的貸款機構及其借款人繼續尋求我們的關鍵首付支援。第三季度，我們新增了130億美元的淨保單額度，最終以創紀錄的2184億美元高品質、高績效的有效保單額結束了該季度。

In Washington, our conversations remain active and constructive, and there continues to be broad recognition in DC of the unique and valuable role that the private mortgage insurance industry plays, offering borrowers low-cost down payment support and access to mortgage credit while also placing private capital in front of the taxpayer to absorb risk and loss in a downturn and ultimately ensure the safety and soundness of the conventional mortgage market.

在華盛頓，我們的對話仍然積極且富有建設性，華盛頓特區也繼續廣泛認識到私人抵押貸款保險行業所發揮的獨特而寶貴的作用，它為借款人提供低成本的首付支持和獲得抵押貸款信貸的機會，同時將私人資本置於納稅人之前，以在經濟低迷時期吸收風險和損失，並最終確保傳統抵押貸款市場的安全和穩健。

National MI and the broader private mortgage insurance industry have never been stronger or better positioned to provide this critical down payment support than we are today. And we're excited to continue working with Director Pulte, other members of the administration and the leadership teams of Fannie and Freddie to advance their important goal of helping more Americans than ever unlock the dream of homeownership.

National MI 和更廣泛的私人抵押貸款保險行業從未像今天這樣強大，也從未像今天這樣有能力提供這項至關重要的首付支持。我們很高興能繼續與普爾特主任、其他政府成員以及房利美和房地美的領導團隊合作，推動他們幫助更多美國人實現擁有住房夢想的重要目標。

With that, let me turn it over to Adam.

那麼，接下來就交給亞當吧。

Thank you, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone. National MI continued to outperform in the third quarter, delivering significant new business production, consistent growth in our insured portfolio and strong financial results. We generated $13 billion of NIW volume and ended the period with a record $218.4 billion of high-quality, high-performing primary insurance-in-force.

謝謝布拉德，大家下午好。 National MI在第三季繼續保持優異表現，實現了顯著的新業務成長、保單組合的持續成長以及強勁的財務業績。我們創造了130億美元的新業務量，並以創紀錄的2184億美元高品質、高績效的有效保單總額結束了本季。

Total revenue in the third quarter was a record $178.7 million, and we delivered GAAP net income of $96 million or $1.22 per diluted share and a 15.6% return on equity. Overall, we had a terrific quarter and are confident as we look ahead.

第三季總營收創下1.787億美元的歷史新高，我們實現了9,600萬美元的GAAP淨利潤，即每股攤薄收益1.22美元，股本回報率為15.6%。總體而言，我們度過了一個非常出色的季度，對未來充滿信心。

The macro environment and housing market have remained resilient through an extended period of headline volatility. Our lender customers and their borrowers continue to rely on us in size for critical down payment support, and we see an attractive and sustained new business opportunity fueled by long-term secular trends and furthered by the recent improvement in mortgage rates. We have an exceptionally high-quality insured portfolio covered by a comprehensive set of risk transfer solutions and our credit performance continues to stand ahead.

儘管市場波動持續，但宏觀環境和房地產市場仍保持韌性。我們的貸款機構客戶及其借款人繼續依賴我們提供關鍵的首付支持，我們看到了由長期趨勢推動、近期抵押貸款利率改善所帶來的極具吸引力且可持續的新業務機會。我們擁有高品質的保險組合，並配備了一套全面的風險轉移解決方案，我們的信貸表現持續領先。

We're delivering consistent growth in embedded value gains in our insured book, and we continue to manage our expenses and capital position with discipline and efficiency, building a robust balance sheet that's supported by the significant earnings power of our platform.

我們在保險業務中實現了持續的內含價值成長，並繼續以嚴謹高效的方式管理支出和資本狀況，建立了穩健的資產負債表，這得益於我們平台強大的獲利能力。

Taken together, we see a clear opportunity for continued outperformance. Notwithstanding these strong positives, however, macro risks do remain, and we've maintained a proactive stance with respect to our pricing, risk selection and reinsurance decisioning. It's an approach that has served us well and continues to be the prudent and appropriate course.

綜上所述，我們看到了持續超越市場平均的明顯機會。然而，儘管存在這些強勁的利多因素，宏觀風險仍然存在，因此我們在定價、風險選擇和再保險決策方面始終保持積極主動的態度。這種做法行之有效，而且仍然是審慎且恰當的策略。

More broadly, we remain encouraged by the continued discipline that we see across the private MI market. Overall, we had a terrific quarter, delivering strong operating performance, consistent growth in our insured portfolio and strong financial results. We're in the market every day with a clear mandate and purpose offering a low-cost, high-value solution that helps borrowers bridge the down payment gap and meaningfully reduces the cash required at the closing table.

更廣泛地說，我們對整個私人抵押貸款保險市場持續展現的穩健作風感到鼓舞。總體而言，我們本季表現出色，實現了強勁的營運業績、保險組合的持續成長以及穩健的財務成果。我們每天都以明確的使命和目標活躍在市場上，提供低成本、高價值的解決方案，幫助借款人彌補首付缺口，並大幅降低最終成交所需的現金。

In the process, we help to make homeownership more affordable and achievable for millions of Americans and communities across the country with coverage that works to insulate the GSEs and taxpayers from risk and loss in a downturn. Looking ahead, we're well positioned to continue to serve our customers and their borrowers, invest in our employees and their success, drive growth in our high-quality insured portfolio and deliver through the cycle growth, returns and value for our shareholders.

在這個過程中，我們透過提供保險保障，幫助數百萬美國民眾和全國各地社區更輕鬆地實現擁有住房的夢想。我們的保險保障能夠有效抵禦經濟衰退帶來的風險和損失，並保護政府支持企業（GSE）和納稅人。展望未來，我們已做好充分準備，繼續為客戶及其借款人提供服務，投資於員工並助力其發展，推動高品質保險組合的成長，並在經濟週期中為股東創造成長、回報和價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to Aurora.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給奧羅拉。

Thank you, Adam. We again delivered standout financial results in the third quarter. Total revenue was a record $178.7 million, GAAP net income was $96 million or $1.22 per diluted share and return on equity was 15.6%. We generated $13 billion of NIW and our primary insurance-in-force grew to $218.4 billion, up 2% from the end of the second quarter and 5% compared to the third quarter of 2024.

謝謝亞當。我們第三季再次取得了優異的財務表現。總營收創下1.787億美元的新高，GAAP淨利為9,600萬美元，即每股攤薄收益1.22美元，股本回報率為15.6%。我們創造了130億美元的淨可支配收入（NIW），主要保單有效總額增長至2184億美元，較第二季度末增長2%，較2024年第三季度增長5%。

12-month persistency was 83.9% in the third quarter compared to 84.1% in the second quarter. Net premiums earned in the third quarter were a record $151.3 million, compared to $149.1 million in the second quarter and $143.3 million in the third quarter of 2024.

第三季12個月保單持續率為83.9%，而第二季為84.1%。第三季淨保費收入創歷史新高，達1.513億美元，第二季為1.491億美元，2024年第三季為1.433億美元。

Net yield for the quarter was 28 basis points, consistent with the second quarter. Core yields, which excludes the cost of our reinsurance coverage and the contribution from cancellation earnings was 34.2 basis points also unchanged from the second quarter.

本季淨收益率為28個基點，與第二季度持平。剔除再保險成本和取消收益貢獻後的核心收益率為34.2個基點，也與第二季持平。

Investment income was $26.8 million in the third quarter compared to $24.9 million in the second quarter and $22.5 million in the third quarter of 2024. Total revenue was a record $178.7 million in the third quarter compared to $173.8 million in the second quarter and $166.1 million in the third quarter of 2024.

第三季投資收益為 2,680 萬美元，而第二季為 2,490 萬美元，2024 年第三季為 2,250 萬美元。第三季總營收創下 1.787 億美元的紀錄，而第二季為 1.738 億美元，2024 年第三季為 1.661 億美元。

Underwriting and operating expenses were $29.2 million in the third quarter compared to $29.5 million in the second quarter. Our expense ratio was a record low 19.3% in the quarter, highlighting the significant operating leverage embedded in our business and the success we have achieved in efficiently managing our cost base. We have a uniquely high-quality insured portfolio and our credit performance continues to stand out.

第三季承保和營運費用為2,920萬美元，低於第二季的2,950萬美元。本季費用率創歷史新低，僅19.3%，凸顯了我們業務中蘊含的顯著營運槓桿效應以及我們在有效控製成本方面的成功。我們擁有獨特的高品質保險組合，信貸表現也持續優異。

We had 7,093 defaults at September 30 compared to 6,709 at June 30, and our default rate was 1.05% at quarter end. Claims expense in the third quarter was $18.6 million compared to $13.4 million in the second quarter, reflecting normal seasonal activity and the continued growth and seasoning of our portfolio. GAAP net income for the quarter was $96 million and diluted earnings per share was $1.22. Adjusted net income was $95.7 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.21.

截至9月30日，我們的違約案例為7,093起，而6月30日為6,709起，季末違約率為1.05%。第三季理賠支出為1,860萬美元，高於第二季的1,340萬美元，這反映了正常的季節性活動以及我們投資組合的持續成長和成熟。本季GAAP淨利為9,600萬美元，攤薄後每股收益為1.22美元。調整後淨利為9,570萬美元，調整後攤薄後每股收益為1.21美元。

Total cash and investments were $3.1 billion at quarter end, including $148 million of cash and investments at the holding company. Shareholders' equity at September 30 was $2.5 billion and book value per share was $32.62. Book value per share, excluding the impact of net unrealized gains and losses in the investment portfolio was $33.32, up 4% compared to the second quarter and 16% compared to the third quarter of last year.

截至季末，公司現金及投資總額為31億美元，其中包括控股公司持有的1.48億美元現金及投資。截至9月30日，股東權益為25億美元，每股帳面價值為32.62美元。剔除投資組合未達到淨收益及損失的影響後，每股帳面價值為33.32美元，較第二季成長4%，較去年第三季成長16%。

In the third quarter, we repurchased $24.6 million of common stock, retiring 628,000 shares at an average price of $39.13, through quarter end, we've repurchased a total of $319 million of common stock, retiring 11.3 million shares at an average price of $28.25. We have $256 million of repurchase capacity remaining under our existing program.

第三季度，我們回購了價值 2,460 萬美元的普通股，以平均每股 39.13 美元的價格註銷了 62.8 萬股。截至季末，我們已累計回購了價值 3.19 億美元的普通股，以平均每股 28.25 美元的價格註銷了 1,130 萬股。根據我們現有的回購計劃，我們還有 2.56 億美元的回購額度。

At quarter end, we reported $3.4 billion of total available assets under PMIERs and $2 billion of risk-based required assets. Excess available assets were $1.4 billion. Overall, we achieved standout financial results during the quarter, delivering consistent growth in our high-quality insured portfolio, record top line performance and expense efficiency and strong bottom line profitability and returns.

截至季末，我們報告稱，PMIER項下可用資產總額為34億美元，風險加權所需資產為20億美元。超額可用資產為14億美元。整體而言，本季度我們取得了卓越的財務業績，高品質保險組合持續成長，營收和費用效率均創歷史新高，淨利潤和回報率也表現強勁。

With that, let me turn it back to Adam.

那麼，現在讓我把話題轉回給亞當。

Thank you, Aurora. We had a terrific quarter, once again delivering significant new business production, consistent growth in our high-quality insured portfolio and stand out financial results. We have a strong customer franchise, a talented team driving us forward every day, an exceptionally high-quality book covered by a comprehensive set of risk transfer solutions and a robust balance sheet supported by the significant earnings power of our platform.

感謝Aurora的支持。我們本季表現出色，再次實現了顯著的新業務成長，高品質保險組合持續擴大，並取得了優異的財務業績。我們擁有強大的客戶基礎，一支才華橫溢、銳意進取的團隊，以及一套完善的風險轉移解決方案，支撐著高品質的業務組合，同時，我們平台的強大盈利能力也為我們穩健的資產負債表提供了有力保障。

Taken together, we are well positioned to continue to serve our customers and their borrowers, invest in our employees and their success drive growth in our high-quality insured portfolio and deliver through the cycle growth, returns and value for our shareholders.

綜上所述，我們有能力繼續為我們的客戶及其借款人提供服務，投資於我們的員工，他們的成功將推動我們高品質保險組合的成長，並在周期中為我們的股東帶來成長、回報和價值。

Thank you for joining us today. I'll now ask the operator to come back on so we can take your questions.

感謝您今天收看我們的節目。現在我請接線生重新連線，以便我們回答您的問題。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

Terry Ma，巴克萊銀行。

Just wanted to start off with credit. As I look at new defaults in the quarter, it was up only about 5% year-over-year, that's a noticeable step down from the pace of year-over-year increases that you've seen in the last 10 quarters. So maybe just any color on kind of what happened in the quarter? And as we look forward, how should we expect kind of new defaults kind of emerge like when we factor in kind of seasoning and everything?

首先我想談談信貸方面。我查看了本季的新增違約案例，發現年比僅成長了約5%，這與過去十個季度的年增率相比明顯放緩。所以，能否請您就本季的具體情況做個簡要說明？展望未來，考慮到貸款的累積效應等因素，我們該如何預測新增違約案例的出現？

Yeah. Terry, good question. Look, I'd say broadly speaking, we're still greatly encouraged by the performance of our portfolio overall including the trends, obviously, in the default population. The impact of seasonality coming through this year was a bit more muted, which is encouraging. I think we trace that to a few things, right?

是的，特里，問得好。總的來說，我們對投資組合的整體表現，包括違約人群的趨勢，仍然感到非常鼓舞。今年季節性因素的影響相對較小，令人欣慰。我認為這可以歸因於以下幾個方面，對吧？

We got broad resiliency that we've seen in the macro environment, and so that continues to set a favorable backdrop. We have an incredibly high-quality insured book and our existing borrowers, broadly speaking, remain well situated, and we're seeing that continue to translate through to our credit experience.

我們從宏觀環境的整體韌性中看到了這一點，這繼續為我們創造了有利的背景。我們擁有極高品質的保險業務組合，而且總體而言，我們現有的借款人財務狀況良好，我們看到這些優勢也持續體現在我們的信貸業務中。

The increase in our default experience that you noted some amount of that traces to seasonality, right? We tend to see seasonally a seasonal uptick in default experience as we roll through the second half of the year, and some portion of it traces to what we've talked about for a while now the seasoning, just the natural growth and seasoning of our book. As we look forward, we do expect that seasonality will continue to come through, and so we'll see an additional impact seasonally in Q4.

您提到的預設體驗成長部分原因在於季節性因素，對嗎？我們通常會在下半年看到預設體驗出現季節性成長，這部分原因也與我們之前討論過的「成熟期」有關，也就是我們書籍的自然增長和完善過程。展望未來，我們預計這種季節性因素仍將持續，因此第四季度我們將看到季節性因素的進一步影響。

And we do also expect that as we roll forward over the longer term, we'll continue to see that normalization in our credit experience but overall, we're delighted with how our portfolio is performing. It's exceptionally high quality, and we're encouraged by the trends that we saw in the third quarter and really year-to-date.

我們也預計，從長遠來看，信貸狀況將繼續趨於正常化，但總體而言，我們對投資組合的表現非常滿意。其品質極高，我們對第三季以及年初至今的趨勢感到鼓舞。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just any color on the competitive environment. There has been some rumblings about a potential new entrant, so any color on kind of how to think about how the dynamic may or may not change like if there was a new entrant into the MI market.

明白了，這很有幫助。接下來，或許可以談談競爭環境。最近有傳言說可能會有新企業進入市場，所以想請您談談，如果真的有新企業進入MI市場，市場格局可能會發生怎樣的變化？

Yeah. It's -- I'd say, look, it's not necessarily new. I think there's been periodic chatter about new market entrants over the years. and we're aware of the latest effort that's out there. But I'd say we, perhaps more than anybody else know the challenges and difficulties that come with building a private MI business, it is not easy at all, right? It's really hard to raise the capital. It's really hard to build an MI specific operating platform. It's really hard to hire the right team to sign up customers, earn their trust and also manage through an extended J curve to get to a point of profitability. And when we look at things, say, today versus when we got our start back in 2011, the market is at a very different point today.

是的。其實，這並非什麼新鮮事。這些年來，關於新市場進入者的討論一直不時出現。我們也注意到了最新的嘗試。但我想說，或許我們比任何人都更了解打造私人MI企業所面臨的挑戰和困難，這絕非易事，對吧？籌集資金非常困難。建構一個專門針對MI的營運平台非常困難。組成合適的團隊來招攬客戶、贏得客戶信任，並順利度過漫長的J型成長曲線，最終實現獲利，更是難上加難。如果我們回顧一下，比如說，現在的情況與我們2011年創業之初相比，如今的市場已經截然不同了。

And so today, there is no clear need in the market, right? At this point, the 6 incumbent MI players are all serving the market incredibly well. We're showing up every day for lenders and their borrowers. We've got ample capacity to support their origination volume. We've got their trust we're offering, I think, broadly speaking, fair and valuable solutions for every borrower that comes through our market, and so it's difficult to know obviously exactly where things land.

所以，目前市場上並沒有明顯的市場需求，對吧？現階段，六家現有的抵押貸款中介機構都為市場提供了非常優質的服務。我們每天都在為貸款機構及其借款人提供服務。我們擁有充足的產能來支持他們的貸款發放量。我們贏得了他們的信任，我認為，總的來說，我們為每一位透過我們平台進入市場的借款人提供公平且有價值的解決方案。因此，很難準確預測最終結果。

We don't know what will happen with the latest rumors. But say, it's a very high bar, right? It takes a lot of capital, a very large amount of capital to fund the PMIERs compliance business. And if we were controlling first strings and thinking about making an investment in a new entrant ourselves, I'd say we'd be highly skeptical that now is the right time to do that, given all the challenges that we would see for anybody who came into the market today.

我們不知道最新的傳言會如何發展。但話說回來，門檻確實很高，對吧？要為PMIERs的合規業務提供資金，需要巨額資金。如果我們掌握主導權，並且考慮投資一家新進者，考慮到如今任何進入市場的企業都會面臨諸多挑戰，我們會非常懷疑現在是否是合適的時機。

And that's not because the market itself is challenges because the market is doing so well in the 6 companies that are there today are performing so well. So we'll see, ultimately, if somebody new came in, everybody -- the market will adapt around it. But I think going from discussions to actually having a fully funded, capitalized approved entity, that's a pretty wide gulf.

這並非因為市場本身面臨挑戰，因為目前這六家公司表現都非常出色，市場整體情況良好。所以最終我們會看到，如果有新公司加入，市場會做出相對應的調整。但我認為，從討論到最終擁有一個資金充足、資本齊全且獲得批准的實體，這中間還有相當大的差距。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯·喬治，KBW。

Can you give us an update on what you're seeing in terms of the strength of the consumer? Also just any housing markets that you're keeping an eye on where -- in terms of home prices or other signs of potential weakness.

您能否介紹一下目前觀察到的消費者信心強度狀況？另外，您目前關注的房地產市場有哪些？例如房價或其他可能出現疲軟跡象的地區？

Sure. Yeah. Good question. Look, I'd say broadly speaking, I noted in our prepared remarks, but we've been encouraged by the broad resiliency that we're seeing in the economy and the housing market for a while now. Headline unemployment remains low, inflation is cooled, consumers broadly speaking, are still spending businesses or continuing to make significant investments.

當然。是的。問得好。你看，總的來說，正如我在事先準備好的演講稿中提到的，我們對經濟和房地產市場展現出的整體韌性感到鼓舞。整體失業率仍然很低，通膨有所降溫，消費者整體仍在消費，企業也持續進行大量投資。

The equity market is continuing to set new highs. And so the overall picture today is an encouraging one. But for us, obviously, it's not just about today. It's also what comes tomorrow. And so we always think about risks that might be on the horizon.

股市持續創下新高，因此，今天的整體情勢令人鼓舞。但對我們而言，顯然，重要的不僅是今天，還有明天。所以我們始終關注著可能出現的風險。

And so when we parse through the data, I think we can all see it on the macro side, there are signs in the labor market of some degree of strain emerging. We're not seeing unemployment increase, and we don't have government data for the last little while, but there are certain private data points that we can look at. So we don't see unemployment increasing, but certainly, the pace of new hiring activity has slowed.

因此，當我們分析數據時，我認為從宏觀層面來看，勞動市場已經出現了一些緊張跡象。我們並未看到失業率上升，最近一段時間也沒有政府數據，但我們可以參考一些私人數據。所以，我們雖然沒有看到失業率上升，但新增招募活動的成長確實放緩了。

I think consumer confidence is down, particularly amongst certain borrower cohorts, and there's broad talks of -- I think we're terming it a K-shaped recovery. So we'll see what I'd say from our vantage point, it's still a really encouraging and resilient backdrop those macro and housing market but we're always focused on what might come.

我認為消費者信心有所下降，尤其是在某些特定借款群體中，目前普遍認為──我們稱之為K型復甦。所以，我們將拭​​目以待。從我們的角度來看，宏觀經濟和房地產市場仍然展現出令人鼓舞和韌性的背景，但我們始終關注未來可能發生的情況。

And then Bose, I think you asked a question about geos. And so yes, we've talked for a while now that there are certain geographies, Florida, Texas, the Sunbelt, Mountain West where we're seeing some -- either a declining pace of house price appreciation or a turn in prices with inventory building. And that's still the case. Those same markets, there's nothing new, the pressure isn't new, but we're still seeing, when we look at the world, those markets that have been soft for a little while now continue to show signs that they're soft, and we see continued strength, though, in the Northeast and the Midwest.

博斯，我想你問了一個關於地域性的問題。是的，我們之前討論過，某些地區，例如佛羅裡達、德克薩斯、陽光地帶、西部山區，房價漲幅要么放緩，要么隨著庫存增加而出現價格回落。這種情況依然存在。這些市場的情況並非新鮮事，壓力也並非新鮮事，但我們放眼全球，那些已經疲軟一段時間的市場仍然顯示出疲軟的跡象，而東北部和中西部地區則持續走強。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then actually just in terms of the reinsurance markets, can you just talk about what you're seeing there? Also, just I guess you guys are more active on the XOL side, just in terms of execution, like why there versus more on the ILN side?

好的，太好了，這很有幫助。那麼，就再保險市場而言，您能談談您觀察到的情況嗎？另外，我感覺你們在XOL方面更活躍，尤其是在執行方面，為什麼你們更傾向於XOL而不是ILN呢？

Sure. In terms of what we're seeing in the reinsurance market, reinsurance markets remain very robust, and we look at the pricing achieved by some of our competitors in the marketplace year-to-date, it's the best pricing that's ever been achieved. If we wind the clock back to 2024, we placed full XOL and quota share coverage for 2025, 2026 and a portion of the 2027 year with respect to the quota share. So we have a really nice runway in terms of our locked-in capacity in the traditional reinsurance market.

當然。就我們目前在再保險市場觀察到的情況來看，再保險市場依然非常強勁。我們觀察了一些競爭對手今年迄今在市場上的定價，發現這是有史以​​來最好的定價。如果我們把時間撥回到2024年，我們已經為2025年、2026年以及2027年的部分時間（就比例再保險而言）安排了全面的超額損失險和比例再保險。因此，就我們在傳統再保險市場的鎖定承保能力而言，我們擁有非常充足的保障。

So you may recall that in the third and fourth quarter of the year, the back part of the year, we typically engage with our reinsurance partners and talk about the opportunity to lock in further coverage for forward years or to optimize the coverage that we have in place. And so you may imagine, we're engaged in those discussions currently. And -- but again, it's a very strong reinsurance market backdrop leading into those conversations.

您可能還記得，在每年的第三和第四季度，也就是下半年，我們通常會與再保險合作夥伴進行溝通，探討鎖定未來幾年的保險保障，或優化我們現有的保險方案。所以您可以想像，我們目前正在進行這些討論。而且——再次強調，這些討論的背景是再保險市場非常強勁。

And with regards to ILN versus XOL, we like both of those markets. Both of them have been very good sources of capital for us as a company. Recently, we have been more biased towards the traditional reinsurance market. In particular, because it offers that forward coverage, which isn't available in the debt capital markets. And so that's been our recent preference just from a cost flexibility and speed of execution perspective. But we like both of those markets. And I think you should expect us in the fullness of time to be active across all different markets.

至於ILN和XOL這兩個市場，我們都比較看好。它們一直是公司重要的資金來源。最近，我們更傾向於傳統的再保險市場，因為它能提供債務資本市場無法提供的長期保障。因此，從成本彈性和執行速度的角度來看，這是我們近期的偏好。但我們對這兩個市場都很看好。我相信，假以時日，我們終將活躍於所有不同的市場。

Mark Hughes, Truist.

馬克·休斯，Truist。

Yeah. the core yield, it's been holding pretty steady at 34 basis points. Is that a good run rate here? What moves that one way or the other in the kind of the near to medium term?

是的，核心報酬率一直穩定在34個基點。這個收益率算正常嗎？在中短期內，什麼因素會影響它？

Sure. I'm happy to start out here. It has been very stable, and that's obviously been supported by the tremendous persistency that we've had in the book and continue to have in the third quarter. So again, we would -- we don't give forward guidance, but given the strength of the in-force book, we would expect that plus/minus that kind of number for the core yield will be good. Obviously, the net yield is influenced by claims expense in the quarter and how that runs through our reinsurance contracts.

當然。我很高興能從這裡開始。公司一直非常穩定，這顯然得益於我們保單的強勁持續性，而且這種持續性在第三季也得以延續。所以，我們——我們不提供前瞻性指引——但鑑於現有保單的強勁表現，我們預期核心收益率的增減幅度應該會不錯。當然，淨收益率會受到當季理賠支出以及這些支出如何透過我們的再保險合約進行分配的影響。

And then any thoughts about the impact on persistency if we do see interest rates drop, that would be great from a new business perspective, a lot of purchase activity would ramp up presumably, but you get a lot of refi. How would you see the puts and takes if kind of you get a refi-ed market? And then if you can get multiple rounds of it, given the -- where recent borrowers have been borrowing at.

那麼，如果利率下降，對貸款持續性有何影響？從新業務的角度來看，這當然是好事，購屋活動可能會大幅增加，但同時也會帶來大量的再融資。如果出現再融資市場，您會如何看待其中的優缺點？考慮到近期借款人的借貸水平，如果再融資能夠持續多輪，又會如何呢？

Yeah. So I think as you termed it, there's both puts and takes. Our persistency was 83.9% in the third quarter, and as we noted, again, helped to drive continued growth in embedded value gains in our insured portfolio. Overall, our portfolio is broadly well situated because we've got a 5.2% weighted average note rate underpinning our exposure at quarter end. But it's not even, obviously, across the entirety of our book.

是的。所以我覺得正如你所說，既有利好也有利空。第三季我們的保單持續率達到了83.9%，正如我們之前提到的，這再次推動了我們保險組合中內含價值的持續成長。整體而言，我們的投資組合整體狀況良好，因為截至季末，我們5.2%的加權平均票據利率支撐了我們的曝險。但顯然，這種情況並非遍及我們所有的保單。

There are vintages parts of our in-force that have greater degrees of refi sensitivity, and where we will likely see an uptick in some prepayment speeds given the recent moves in rates, that's going to be natural, right? So that's the put.

我們現有貸款組合中有些年份較長的貸款對再融資更為敏感，鑑於最近的利率變動，我們可能會看到部分貸款的提前還款速度加快，這很正常，對吧？所以這就是我的看法。

The take, as you noted, though, is, one, some portion of the borrowers in our portfolio who will benefit from a refinancing today or very likely to still need MI coverage because while HPA has generally trended higher, it's trended higher at a normal, not record pace. And so there's an opportunity to see penetration of refinancing origination activity grow if there were -- if we saw an uptick in overall refi activity. As you noted, look, if rates lag down, to the point where we see a more pronounced pressure on persistency, we'd also expect to see a benefit in new business activity, NIW volume, bringing prospective buyers purchase demand off the sidelines.

正如您所指出的，關鍵在於：首先，我們投資組合中的部分借款人今天可以透過再融資獲益，或者很可能仍然需要抵押貸款保險 (MI)，因為雖然房屋抵押貸款利率 (HPA) 總體呈上升趨勢，但其上升速度屬於正常水平，而非創紀錄水平。因此，如果整體再融資活動回升，那麼再融資業務的滲透率就有機會成長。其次，正如您所指出的，如果利率持續下降，導致貸款持續率面臨更大壓力，我們預計新業務活動（即新貸款業務量）也會受益，從而促使潛在買家結束觀望狀態，開始購房。

And the one other one to note is there's a potential knock-on benefit from a credit experience standpoint, to a refinancing cycle, right? If we see refinancings accelerate, it's most likely just because of where the underlying note rates are that, that will come from our more recent vintages. And those are the vintages that we're looking at for that normalizing credit experience. If those vintages begin to turn over, it will take -- it will extend that normalization cycle from a credit performance standpoint.

還有一點要注意的是，從信貸體驗的角度來看，這可能會對再融資週期產生連鎖反應，對吧？如果我們看到再融資加速，很可能是因為基礎票據利率處於當前水平，而這主要來自我們近期的貸款。這些貸款正是我們所關注的信貸體驗正常化的來源。如果這些貸款開始更新換代，從信貸表現的角度來看，這將延長信貸體驗正常化的週期。

Appreciate that. And then were there any one timers in the expense ratio is obviously, as you say, a record number. Anything nonrecurring there? Or is that a good run rate?

非常感謝。那麼，費用率中是否存在一次性支出項目？正如您所說，這個數字顯然創下了紀錄。是否存在非經常性支出？或者說，這個費用率屬於正常水準？

I'd say, with regard to the expense ratio, there was nothing in particular that I'd point out in the quarter. And if you look at the raw dollars, it's within a couple of hundred thousand dollars of what we spent last quarter. And so there are a few positives and negatives, but again, nothing of note.

就費用率而言，本季沒有特別需要指出的地方。如果只看具體金額，與上季相比，差額在幾十萬美元以內。所以，有利有弊，但總的來說，沒有什麼值得特別關注的。

I would say if you're looking forward, typically, the second and third quarter are lightest in terms of expenses and the fourth, and then the first quarter tend to be heavier just in terms of both dollars of expense and also the ratio goes up during those quarters. And in the fourth quarter, that typically results from the accrual of some of our people-related expenses. So that's the only thing that I would note with regard to the fourth quarter.

展望未來，通常來說，第二季和第三季的支出最少，而第四季和第一季的支出則往往較高，無論是支出金額或支出比率都會上升。第四季度支出增加通常是由於一些人事相關費用的提列造成的。關於第四季度，我只想補充一點。

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

Rick Shane，摩根大通。

This is A.J. on for Rick. So if rates fall in refis do start to tick up, is there anything kind of proactive you can do to recapture MI on more of those loans? Could you maybe just walk through your playbook sharing your early experience you've had there?

這裡是A.J.替Rick問。如果再融資利率下降，然後又開始回升，您有什麼積極主動的措施來重新獲得更多此類貸款的抵押保險嗎？您能否分享一下您在這方面的早期經驗，談談您的策略？

Yeah. So I'd say on the margin, there are things that you might try to do. But more broadly, the most important piece of the playbook is to be everywhere in the market and be offering valuable solutions for our customers to be plugged in with as many lenders as possible and so that we could serve their borrowers.

是的。所以我覺得，從其他方面來看，你可以嘗試做一些事情。但更廣泛地說，最重要的策略是覆蓋市場的各個角落，為客戶提供有價值的解決方案，讓他們能夠與盡可能多的貸款機構對接，從而更好地服務他們的借款人。

We've noted for a while that 1 of the unique attributes that we have to our benefit is that our share of the new business environment is larger than our share of industry insurance-in-force. So to the extent that there is some amount of industry insurance-in-force that's in motion because it's refinancing, but still needs MI coverage. We have an opportunity, we think, to capture a little bit more of that than we will necessarily lose.

我們早就注意到，我們的一項獨特優勢在於，我們在新商業環境中的份額大於我們在現有行業保險中的份額。因此，如果現有產業保險中存在一些正在進行再融資但仍需要抵押保險的情況，我們認為，我們有機會從中獲得更多份額，而不是失去更多份額。

And so that's not a strategy per se, it's just where the numbers are. But the real strategy behind it is make sure that we are connected to our customers that we're offering them valuable solutions that were present for their borrowers across all markets so that, that business that is potentially in motion is a business that we can capture.

所以這本身算不上什麼策略，只是資料擺在那裡而已。但背後的真正策略是確保我們與客戶保持聯繫，為他們提供在所有市場都適用於其借款人的有價值的解決方案，這樣，我們就能抓住那些潛在的業務機會。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我將會議交還給管理階層，請他們作總結發言。

Thank you again for joining us. We look forward to speaking with you again soon.

再次感謝您的參與。我們期待盡快與您再次交流。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議已結束。感謝您參加今天的報告。您可以斷開連線了。