NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the NMI Holdings third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 NMI Holdings 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to John Swenson, NMI Management. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給 NMI 管理部門的約翰·斯文森 (John Swenson)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to the 2024 third-quarter conference call for National MI. I'm John Swenson, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Joining us on the call today are Brad Shuster, Executive Chairman; Adam Pollitzer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Aurora Swithenbank, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，接線生。下午好，歡迎參加全國 MI 2024 年第三季電話會議。我是約翰‧斯文森 (John Swenson)，投資者關係與財務部副總裁。今天加入我們電話會議的有執行主席布拉德舒斯特 (Brad Shuster)； Adam Pollitzer，總裁兼執行長；以及我們的財務長 Aurora Swithenbank。

Financial results for the quarter were released after the close today. The press release may be accessed on NMI's website located at nationalmi.com under the Investors tab.

該季度的財務業績於今天收盤後發布。新聞稿可在 NMI 網站Nationalmi.com 的「投資者」標籤下存取。

During the course of this call, we may make comments about our expectations for the future. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements. Additional information about the factors that could cause actual results or trends to differ materially from those discussed on the call can be found on our website or through our regulatory filings with the SEC.

在這次電話會議期間，我們可能會就我們對未來的期望發表評論。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中所包含的結果有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果或趨勢與電話會議中討論的結果或趨勢存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，可以在我們的網站或透過我們向 SEC 提交的監管文件中找到。

If and to extent the company makes forward-looking statements, we do not undertake obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent developments. Further, no one should rely on the fact that the guidance of such statements is current at any time other than this call.

如果公司做出前瞻性陳述，我們不承擔根據後續發展在未來更新這些陳述的義務。此外，除了本次電話會議之外，任何人都不應依賴這樣的事實：此類聲明的指導在任何時候都是最新的。

Also note that on this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP measures. In today's press release and on our website, we provided a reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable measures under GAAP.

另請注意，在本次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計原則措施。在今天的新聞稿和我們的網站上，我們提供了這些衡量標準與公認會計準則下最可比衡量標準的調節表。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Brad.

現在，我將把電話轉給布拉德。

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to report that in the third quarter, National MI again delivered strong operating performance, continued growth in our insured portfolio, and record financial results. Our lenders and their borrowers continue to turn to us for critical down payment support. And in the third quarter, we generated $12.2 billion of NIW volume, ending the period with a record $207.5 billion of high-quality, high-performing insurance in force.

謝謝約翰，大家下午好。我很高興地向大家報告，第三季度，National MI 再次實現了強勁的營運業績，我們的保險組合持續成長，並創下了創紀錄的財務業績。我們的貸方及其借款人繼續向我們尋求關鍵的首付支援。第三季度，我們產生了 122 億美元的 NIW 金額，以創紀錄的 2,075 億美元的高品質、高性能有效保險結束這段時期。

In Washington, our conversations remain active and constructive, and we believe there is broad recognition in D.C. about the value that the private mortgage insurance industry provides, offering borrowers down payment support and efficient access to mortgage credit, while also placing private capital in front of the taxpayer to absorb risk and loss in a downturn.

在華盛頓，我們的對話仍然活躍且富有建設性，我們相信華盛頓對私人抵押貸款保險行業提供的價值有廣泛的認可，為借款人提供首付支持和有效獲得抵押信貸的機會，同時也將私人資本置於優先考慮的位置。

At National MI, we recognize the need to provide borrowers with a fair and small opportunity to access the housing market, establish a community identity and build long-term wealth through homeownership, and we are proud to have helped nearly 2 million borrowers to date. Overall, we had a terrific third quarter and are well positioned to continue to lead with impact and drive value for our people, our customers and their borrowers and our shareholders going forward.

在 National MI，我們認識到需要為借款人提供公平而小的機會進入房地產市場、建立社區身份並透過擁有住房建立長期財富，我們很自豪迄今為止已幫助了近 200 萬借款人。總體而言，我們的第三季表現出色，並且處於有利位置，可以繼續為我們的員工、客戶及其借款人和股東帶來影響力和價值。

With that, let me turn it over to Adam.

那麼，讓我把它交給亞當。

Thank you, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone. National MI continued to outperform in the third quarter, delivering significant new business production, consistent growth in our insured portfolio, and record financial results. We generated $12.2 billion of NIW volume and ended the period with a record $207.5 billion of high-quality, high-performing primary insurance in force.

謝謝布拉德，大家下午好。國民保險在第三季度繼續跑贏大市，實現了顯著的新業務產出，我們的保險投資組合持續增長，並創下了創紀錄的財務業績。我們產生了 122 億美元的 NIW 金額，並以創紀錄的 2,075 億美元有效的優質、高性能主要保險結束了這段時期。

Total revenue in the third quarter was a record $166.1 million. We delivered GAAP net income of $92.8 million or $1.15 per diluted share and a 17.5% return on equity.

第三季總收入達到創紀錄的 1.661 億美元。我們實現了 GAAP 淨利潤 9,280 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.15 美元，股本回報率為 17.5%。

Overall, we had an exceptionally strong quarter and are confident as we look ahead. The macro environment and housing market have remained broadly resilient in the face of elevated interest rates. Our lender customers and their borrowers continue to rely on us in size for critical down payment support. And we see an attractive and sustained new business opportunity fueled by long-term secular trends.

總體而言，我們度過了一個異常強勁的季度，並且對未來充滿信心。面對利率上升，宏觀環境和房地產市場整體保持彈性。我們的貸方客戶及其借款人繼續依賴我們的規模來提供關鍵的首付支援。我們看到了由長期趨勢推動的有吸引力且持續的新商機。

We have an exceptionally high-quality insured portfolio covered by a comprehensive set of risk transfer solutions and our credit performance continues to stand ahead. Our persistency remains well above historical trend, and when paired with our strong NIW volume, has helped to drive consistent growth and embedded value gains in our insured book. And we continue to manage our expenses and capital position with discipline and efficiency, building a robust balance sheet that's supported by the significant earnings power of our platform.

我們擁有極其優質的受保投資組合，涵蓋一整套全面的風險轉移解決方案，並且我們的信用表現繼續保持領先。我們的持續性仍然遠高於歷史趨勢，並且與我們強勁的 NIW 數量相結合，有助於推動我們保險帳簿的持續成長和內含價值收益。我們繼續以紀律和效率管理我們的費用和資本狀況，在我們平台的巨大盈利能力的支持下建立穩健的資產負債表。

Notwithstanding these strong positives, however, macro risks do remain, and we've maintained a proactive stance with respect to our pricing, risk selection, and reinsurance decisioning. It's an approach that has served us well and continues to be the prudent and appropriate course.

然而，儘管有這些強勁的積極因素，宏觀風險仍然存在，我們在定價、風險選擇和再保險決策方面保持了積極主動的立場。這種方法對我們很有幫助，而且仍然是審慎而適當的做法。

In the third quarter, we continued to make targeted changes to further manage our mix of new business by risk cohort and geography. And in October, we secured a series of new reinsurance treaties that will provide us with forward flow coverage, comprehensive risk protection, and efficient PMIERs funding for our next several years of new business production.

第三季度，我們繼續進行有針對性的變革，以進一步按風險群體和地理管理我們的新業務組合。10 月份，我們達成了一系列新的再保險條約，這些條約將為我們未來幾年的新業務生產提供遠期流量保障、全面的風險保護和高效的 PMIER 資金。

More broadly, we've been encouraged by the continued discipline that we see across the private MI market. Underwriting standards remain rigorous, and the pricing environment remains balanced and constructive. Overall, we had a terrific quarter, delivering strong operating performance, continued growth in our insured portfolio and record financial results.

更廣泛地說，我們對整個私人 MI 市場持續的紀律感到鼓舞。承保標準仍然嚴格，定價環境保持平衡和建設性。總體而言，我們度過了一個出色的季度，實現了強勁的營運業績，保險投資組合持續成長，財務業績創紀錄。

Looking ahead, we're well positioned to continue to serve our customers and their borrowers, invest in our employees and their success, drive growth in our high-quality insured portfolio and deliver through the cycle growth returns and value for our shareholders.

展望未來，我們有能力繼續為我們的客戶及其借款人提供服務，投資於我們的員工及其成功，推動我們高品質保險投資組合的成長，並為我們的股東提供整個週期的成長回報和價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to Aurora.

有了這個，我就把它交給奧羅拉。

Thank you, Adam. I'm pleased to report that we again achieved record financial results in the third quarter. Total revenue was a record $166.1 million, and we delivered GAAP net income of $92.8 million or $1.15 per diluted share and a 17.5% return on equity. We generated $12.2 billion of NIW volume and our primary insurance in force grew to $207.5 billion, up 2% from the end of the second quarter, and 7% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

謝謝你，亞當。我很高興地報告，我們在第三季再次取得了創紀錄的財務表現。總收入達到創紀錄的 1.661 億美元，我們實現了 GAAP 淨利潤 9,280 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.15 美元，股本回報率為 17.5%。我們產生了 122 億美元的 NIW 金額，有效的主要保險增長至 2,075 億美元，較第二季末增長 2%，較 2023 年第三季增長 7%。

12-month persistency was 85.5% in the third quarter compared to 85.4% in the second quarter. Persistency continues to serve as an important driver of the growth and embedded value of our insured portfolio.

第三季的 12 個月持續率為 85.5%，而第二季為 85.4%。持久性持續成為我們保險投資組合成長和內在價值的重要驅動力。

Net premiums earned in the third quarter were a record $143.3 million compared to $141.2 million in the second quarter and $130.1 million in the third quarter of 2023. Net yield for the quarter was 28 basis points, consistent with the second quarter. Core yield, which excludes the cost of our reinsurance coverage and the contribution from cancellation earnings was 34.3 basis points also unchanged from the second quarter.

第三季淨保費收入達到創紀錄的 1.433 億美元，而第二季為 1.412 億美元，2023 年第三季為 1.301 億美元。本季淨收益率為 28 個基點，與第二季一致。核心收益率（不包括再保險成本和取消收益的貢獻）為 34.3 個基點，也與第二季持平。

Investment income was $22.5 million in the third quarter compared with $20.7 million in the second quarter and $17.9 million in the third quarter of 2023. We saw continued growth in investment income during the period as we deployed new cash flows and rolling maturities at favorable new money rates.

2023 年第三季投資收益為 2,250 萬美元，而第二季投資收益為 2,070 萬美元，第三季投資收益為 1,790 萬美元。在此期間，我們看到了投資收入的持續成長，因為我們以有利的新貨幣利率部署了新的現金流和滾動期限。

Total revenue was a record $166.1 million in the third quarter, up 2% compared to the second quarter and 12% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Underwriting and operating expenses were $29.2 million in the third quarter compared to $28.3 million in the second quarter. Our expense ratio was 20.3% in the quarter, compared to 20.1% in the second quarter.

第三季總營收達到創紀錄的 1.661 億美元，較第二季成長 2%，較 2023 年第三季成長 12%。第三季的承保和營運費用為 2,920 萬美元，而第二季為 2,830 萬美元。本季我們的費用率為 20.3%，而第二季為 20.1%。

We had 5,712 defaults at September 30, and our default rate was 87 basis points at quarter end compared to 76 basis points at June 30. Claims expense in the third quarter was $10.3 million compared to $276,000 in the second quarter and $4.8 million in the third quarter of 2023.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們有 5,712 筆違約，季末的違約率為 87 個基點，而 6 月 30 日為 76 個基點。第三季的索賠費用為 1,030 萬美元，而第二季為 276,000 美元，2023 年第三季為 480 萬美元。

We have a uniquely high-quality insured portfolio and our credit experience continues to benefit from the discipline with which we have shaped our book. The strong position of our existing borrowers and the broad resiliency we've seen in the housing market.

我們擁有獨特的高品質受保投資組合，我們的信貸經驗繼續受益於我們制定本書的紀律。我們現有借款人的強勢地位以及我們在房地產市場看到的廣泛彈性。

Interest expense in the third quarter was $7.1 million and reflects the run rate savings we achieved with our successful debt refinancing in May. GAAP net income was $92.8 million, up 1% from -- compared to $92.1 million in the second quarter and 11% compared to $84 million in the third quarter of 2023.

第三季的利息支出為 710 萬美元，反映了我們透過 5 月成功的債務再融資實現的運行率節省。公認會計準則淨利潤為 9,280 萬美元，較第二季的 9,210 萬美元成長 1%，較 2023 年第三季的 8,400 萬美元成長 11%。

Diluted EPS was $1.15, up 1% compared to $1.13 in the second quarter and 14% compared to $1 in the third quarter of 2023.

稀釋後每股收益為 1.15 美元，比第二季的 1.13 美元成長 1%，比 2023 年第三季的 1 美元成長 14%。

Total cash and investments were $2.8 billion at quarter end, including $148 million of cash and investments at the holding company. We have $425 million of outstanding senior notes and our $250 million revolving credit facility remains undrawn and fully available.

截至季末，現金和投資總額為 28 億美元，其中控股公司的現金和投資為 1.48 億美元。我們有 4.25 億美元的未償還優先票據，我們的 2.5 億美元的循環信貸額度仍未提取且完全可用。

In October, S&P upgraded our financial strength and issuer ratings to A- and BBB-, respectively. We're pleased that they recognize the quality of our insured portfolio, track record of underwriting performance and profitability and broadly balanced and diversified capital structure in their decision.

10 月份，標準普爾將我們的財務實力和發行人評級分別上調至 A- 和 BBB-。我們很高興他們在決策中認可了我們承保投資組合的品質、承保業績和盈利能力的良好記錄以及廣泛平衡和多元化的資本結構。

Shareholders' equity as of September 30 was $2.2 billion and book value per share was $27.67. Book value per share, excluding the impact of net unrealized gains and losses in the investment portfolio was $28.71, and up 4% compared to the second quarter and 17% compared to the third quarter of last year.

截至9月30日的股東權益為22億美元，每股帳面價值為27.67美元。扣除投資組合中未實現淨損益的影響，每股帳面價值為28.71美元，比第二季成長4%，比去年第三季成長17%。

In the third quarter, we repurchased $16.9 million of common stock retiring 443,000 shares at an average price of $38.04. As of September 30, we had $108 million of repurchase capacity remaining under our existing program. In October, we entered into a series of new quota share in excess of loss reinsurance treaties, which together will provide us with forward flow coverage and comprehensive risk protection for our next several years of new business production at an estimated 4% pretax cost of capital.

第三季度，我們回購了價值 1,690 萬美元的普通股，以平均價格 38.04 美元回購了 443,000 股。截至 9 月 30 日，我們現有計畫下仍有 1.08 億美元的回購能力。10 月份，我們簽訂了一系列超出損失再保險條約的新配額份額，這將為我們未來幾年的新業務生產提供遠期流量覆蓋和全面的風險保護，預計稅前資本成本為 4% 。

Reinsurance has long been a core pillar of our credit risk management strategy working to mitigate the potential and volatility in our insured portfolio and has consistently provided us with a deep, secure and efficient source of growth capital to fund our peers' needs. We have significant experience, strong secondary market relationships and a track record of leading with innovation across the risk transfer spectrum. The deals we have just secured are among the best we've ever achieved in terms of their cost, capacity and duration and serve to highlight the quality of our insured portfolio and the differentiation we have achieved through our comprehensive credit risk management framework.

長期以來，再保險一直是我們信用風險管理策略的核心支柱，致力於減輕我們保險組合的潛力和波動性，並始終為我們提供深厚、安全和高效的成長資本來源，以滿足同行的需求。我們擁有豐富的經驗、強大的二級市場關係以及在風險轉移領域中領先創新的記錄。我們剛剛獲得的交易在成本、容量和期限方面都是我們有史以來取得的最佳交易之一，這凸顯了我們承保投資組合的品質以及我們透過全面的信用風險管理框架實現的差異化。

At quarter end, we reported $3 billion of total available assets under Premier's and $1.7 billion of risk-based required assets. Excess available assets were $1.3 billion. Overall, we achieved standout financial results during the quarter, delivering consistent growth in our high-quality insured portfolio, record top line performance, continued expense efficiency and strong bottom line profitability and returns.

截至季末，我們報告了 Premier 下的可用資產總額為 30 億美元，以及基於風險的所需資產為 17 億美元。剩餘可用資產為 13 億美元。總體而言，我們在本季度取得了出色的財務業績，高品質的保險投資組合實現了持續增長，創紀錄的營收業績，持續的費用效率以及強勁的盈利能力和回報。

And with that, let me turn it back to Adam.

說到這裡，讓我把話題轉回亞當身上。

Thank you, Aurora. We had a terrific quarter, once again delivering significant new business production, consistent growth in our insured portfolio and record financial results.

謝謝你，奧羅拉。我們度過了一個出色的季度，再次實現了顯著的新業務產出、保險投資組合的持續增長以及創紀錄的財務業績。

Looking ahead, we're confident. We have a strong customer franchise a talented team that's driving us forward every day, an exceptionally high-quality book covered by a comprehensive set of risk transfer solutions, a robust balance sheet, and the significant earnings power of our platform. We are leading the MI market with discipline and distinction and are well positioned to continue delivering differentiated growth, returns and value for our shareholders.

展望未來，我們充滿信心。我們擁有強大的客戶群、每天推動我們前進的才華橫溢的團隊、包含一整套風險轉移解決方案的高品質書籍、穩健的資產負債表以及我們平台的強大盈利能力。我們憑藉紀律和卓越優勢引領 MI 市場，並處於有利地位，能夠繼續為股東提供差異化的成長、回報和價值。

Thank you for joining us today. I'll now ask the operator to come back on so that we can take your questions.

感謝您今天加入我們。我現在請接線員回來，以便我們回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Terry Ma, Barclays.

（操作員指示）Terry Ma，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, thank you. Good afternoon. Maybe just starting with credit. The year-over-year increase in new notices this quarter accelerated and the cure rate was also lower. So I'm just curious if there is anything episodic that you observed? Or are we just starting to see a more material impact of vintage seasoning trying to play a role?

嘿，謝謝你。午安.也許只是從信用開始。本季新增病例年增幅加快，治癒率也較低。所以我很好奇你是否觀察到了什麼情景？或者我們剛開始看到老式調味料試圖發揮作用帶來的更多物質影響？

Yes, Terry, I'll take that. I'd say, broadly speaking, we are greatly encouraged by the credit performance of our portfolio overall, including the trends that you're noting in our default population. Some of that obviously is the broad resiliency that we continue to see in the housing market and strength of the economy. They set quite a favorable backdrop.

是的，特里，我會接受的。我想說，從廣義上講，我們對我們投資組合的整體信用表現感到非常鼓舞，包括您在我們的違約群體中註意到的趨勢。其中一些顯然是我們在房地產市場和經濟實力中繼續看​​到的廣泛彈性。他們設定了相當有利的背景。

More importantly, though, our existing borrowers remain well situated. We have an incredibly high-quality book by all objective measures. And we're continuing to see that translate through to industry-leading credit experience.

但更重要的是，我們現有的借款人狀況仍然良好。從所有客觀標準來看，我們的書品質都非常高。我們將繼續看到這轉化為領先業界的信貸體驗。

At September 30, our default rate was 87 basis points, which we track as the lowest in the industry by far. Our default count did increase, as you noted, in the third quarter, I'd say this -- one, it should be expected, and it really reflects a combination of what we would call normal seasonal trends and also the growth in natural seasoning of our portfolio. And I know there's been a lot of focus through the course of calls for the industry on these items. And so I do want to elaborate a bit and make sure that everyone understands what we talked what it is that we're talking about when we say seasonal and seasoning dynamics.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的違約率為 87 個基點，這是迄今為止業內最低的。正如您所指出的，我們的違約數量確實在第三季度有所增加，我想說的是——一，這是可以預料到的，它確實反映了我們所說的正常季節性趨勢和自然調味成長的結合我們的投資組合。我知道，在呼籲業界關注這些項目的過程中，大家都非常重視。因此，我確實想詳細說明一下，並確保每個人都理解我們所說的內容，當我們說季節和調味動態時，我們所說的話。

In terms of seasonality, we typically see an uptick in default experience as we move through the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, borrowers benefit from what I'll call net cash inflows, right? Some of them receive bonuses and many more of them are receiving tax refunds, all of which bolsters credit performance in the first half.

就季節性而言，隨著下半年的到來，我們通常會看到違約體驗上升。今年上半年，借款人受益於我所謂的淨現金流入，對嗎？其中一些人獲得獎金，更多人獲得退稅，所有這些都提振了上半年的信貸表現。

One, it helps borrowers who are in default, cure out of their default status, and it also helps ensure that performing borrowers stay current on their loans. When we roll into the second half of the year, those net cash inflows are replaced by net cash outflows.

第一，它可以幫助違約的借款人擺脫違約狀態，並且還有助於確保表現良好的借款人繼續償還貸款。當我們進入下半年時，這些淨現金流入將被淨現金流出所取代。

In the third quarter, what we typically see is that those inflows themselves stop, right? It's not bonus season or time for tax refunds. And so that lack of inflow coming in into the third quarter causes a seasonal shift in credit experience that seasonal shift then continues in the fourth quarter when many households increase their spending for the holidays. And so a new outflow actually comes in. That's what it is that we talk about when we see seasonal patterns in our credit performance at default population and default experience.

在第三季度，我們通常看到的是這些資金流入本身停止，對吧？現在不是獎金季節或退稅時間。因此，第三季資金流入不足會導致信貸體驗出現季節性變化，而這種季節性變化會在第四季度繼續下去，當時許多家庭增加了假期支出。因此，實際上出現了新的資金流出。當我們看到違約人口和違約經驗的信用表現的季節性模式時，我們所討論的就是這個問題。

In terms of growth and seasoning, we've talked about this one for a while now, we simply have a larger portfolio and expect our default count will increase with the growth and natural seasoning of our book, particularly as our more recent 2022 and even 2023 production begin to come into a period of normal loss incurrence. And so that's really what came through. There's nothing else to it that we would point to in the third quarter.

在成長和老化方面，我們已經討論這個問題有一段時間了，我們只是擁有更大的投資組合，並預計我們的違約數量將隨著我們賬簿的增長和自然老化而增加，特別是隨著我們最近的2022 年甚至2023年生產開始進入正常虧損期。這就是真正發生的事情。我們在第三季沒有什麼可以指出的。

Got it. That's helpful color. And then I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks, you guys made some targeted changes by risk cohort. Can you maybe just give a little bit more color and maybe just talk about what you observed to kind of make you implement these changes? Thank you.

知道了。這是有用的顏色。然後我想你在準備好的發言中提到，你們按風險群做了一些有針對性的改變。您能否提供更多的信息，並談談您觀察到的使您實施這些更改的內容？謝謝。

Sure. Look, I'd say, broadly speaking, we're always monitoring the market. We're always tracking developments in the risk environment. And we always talk about risk-based pricing as a dominant theme, and that has changes in the risk environment develop that will make changes in our pricing.

當然。我想說，從廣義上講，我們一直在監控市場。我們始終追蹤風險環境的發展。我們總是將基於風險的定價作為主導主題，而風險環境的變化也會導致我們的定價改變。

We do this all the time. In the third quarter, the magnitude of changes are posture towards engaging in the market where we see value, where we see opportunity. None of that fundamentally shifted. We're still broadly encouraged by what we're seeing across all markets nationally.

我們一直這樣做。在第三季度，變化的幅度是參與我們看到價值和機會的市場的態度。這些都沒有發生根本性的改變。我們仍然對全國所有市場的情況感到廣泛鼓舞。

Where we do see differences, but we've seen them now for a few quarters is differences emerging in certain local markets, right? So Florida and Texas being in the headlines, but some other areas, where we saw some of the most significant house price increases during the pandemic rally, but we're now seeing a fairly sharp supply/demand and what I call affordability constraint emerge. And so we continually are refining where we are in Rate GPS, and that was the case again in the third quarter just as it's been at every point since we introduced the engine.

我們確實看到了差異，但我們現在已經看到了幾個季度的差異，這些差異是在某些當地市場出現的，對吧？因此，佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州成為頭條新聞，但其他一些地區，我們在大流行反彈期間看到了一些最顯著的房價上漲，但我們現在看到相當尖銳的供需關係以及我所說的負擔能力限制的出現。因此，我們不斷完善我們在 GPS 速率方面的進展，第三季度的情況再次如此，就像我們推出引擎以來的每一點一樣。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯·喬治，KBW。

Hey, everyone, good afternoon. I wanted to ask about the mark-to-market LTV on the delinquent portfolio. Obviously, your claims paid has been pretty minimal. And as long as home prices remain steady. Is that a reasonable expectation that claims paid will remain low?

嘿，大家下午好。我想詢問拖欠投資組合按市值計價的 LTV。顯然，您支付的索賠金額非常小。只要房價維持穩定。所支付的索賠將保持在較低水平，這是合理的預期嗎？

I will give you the mark-to-market on the defaulted portfolio, which is roughly 73%. And so that has come down a little bit quarter over quarter, and it should be expected as our 2022 population out amid reference to the seasoning of the portfolio. But as those vintages, which inherently have a little bit less embedded equity just given the HBA path over the past two years. But that is the number at $73.

我將向您提供預設投資組合的按市值計價，大約為 73%。因此，這一數字比上一季有所下降，隨著我們的 2022 年人口隨著投資組合的變化而減少，這一點應該是可以預料到的。但考慮到過去兩年 HBA 的發展軌跡，這些年份的嵌入股權本質上會少一些。但這是 73 美元的數字。

Yes. And Bose, to your question on expectations for actual claim payments out the door. Look, we established reserves for loans that are in default status and delinquent status, based on our expectations of our ultimate claim exposure and responsibility for zones.

是的。Bose，關於您對實際索賠付款預期的問題。看，我們根據我們對最終索賠風險和區域責任的預期，為處於違約狀態和拖欠狀態的貸款建立了準備金。

And so we can't tell you where the actual dollars out the door will trend. But obviously, we're establishing reserves with an expectation that some subset of the loans that are in our default population today will progress through towards a claimable outcome. And we'll have to obviously satisfy our obligation there.

因此，我們無法告訴您實際的美元走勢。但顯然，我們建立儲備金的目的是希望今天違約群體中的部分貸款將逐步實現可索賠的結果。顯然我們必須履行我們的義務。

Okay. Great. Thanks. And then actually just switching to the investment portfolio. I don't know if you said this, but what's the new money yield versus the current yield of the portfolio?

好的。偉大的。謝謝。然後實際上只是切換到投資組合。我不知道你是否這麼說過，但新的資金收益率與投資組合當前的收益率相比是多少？

So the current yield on the portfolio is 3.1%. And obviously, interest rates are bouncing around quite a bit, but we're seeing new money being put to work in and around 5%.

因此目前投資組合的報酬率為 3.1%。顯然，利率大幅波動，但我們看到新資金投入使用的利率在 5% 左右。

Okay. Great. Thanks.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。

Doug Harter, UBS.

道格·哈特，瑞銀集團。

Thanks. Hoping we could talk a little bit more about kind of the competitive dynamic for NIW. This quarter saw one player kind of take significant share, while everyone else was kind of in a similar situation. So can you just expand on what you're seeing in terms of pricing on new business?

謝謝。希望我們能更多地討論 NIW 的競爭動態。本季度，一名球員佔據了相當大的份額，而其他人都處於類似的情況。那麼您能否擴展一下您在新業務定價方面所看到的情況？

Yeah. Look, maybe I'll comment first on price and then just give a broader perspective on moves. What we see is that industry pricing is generally stable and, we would say, rational. We're really encouraged by the discipline that we see across the market and what we interpret as a really deliberate approach that the industry is taking.

是的。聽著，也許我會先評論價格，然後對走勢給予更廣泛的視角。我們看到，產業定價整體穩定，可以說是理性的。我們對整個市場上看到的紀律以及我們所理解的行業正在採取的真正深思熟慮的方法感到非常鼓舞。

We think today, where we should be at a point of balance where most importantly, we've got to make sure that we're fully and fairly supporting our customers and their borrowers. And at the same time, using rate among other tools, but using rate to appropriately protect our balance sheet, our returns and our ability to deliver long-term value for shareholders, that's where we see the market today.

我們認為，今天我們應該處於一個平衡點，最重要的是，我們必須確保我們充分、公平地支持我們的客戶及其借款人。同時，在其他工具中使用利率，但使用利率來適當保護我們的資產負債表、我們的回報以及我們為股東提供長期價值的能力，這就是我們今天看到的市場。

In terms of the movements you noted, look, there's always some amount of movement quarter to quarter. There's always going to be some natural fluctuation in part just based on how your customers are doing, right? If you're winning more business from a set of customers who themselves are on the upswing, you could see a natural pickup and the opposite holds true as well. And then layer on to that, the fact that everyone has their own point of view, right?

就您注意到的變動而言，看，每季總會有一定程度的變動。總是會有一些自然波動，部分取決於您的客戶的行為，對嗎？如果您從一組本身處於上升期的客戶那裡贏得了更多業務，您可能會看到自然的成長，反之亦然。然後再說一點，每個人都有自己的觀點，對嗎？

Everyone is making their own decisions on risk on mix on rate adequacy all the time. And so you could see things naturally move around a little bit. We can't really speculate as to what the decisioning strategy or what's happening inside one of our competitors. But overall, we've seen discipline in the market and a broadly constructive and balanced pricing environment for quite some time, and that remains the case today.

每個人一直在就利率充足性的組合風險做出自己的決定。所以你可以看到事物自然地移動一點。我們無法真正推測我們的競爭對手的決策策略或內部發生的情況。但總體而言，我們已經看到市場紀律和廣泛建設性且平衡的定價環境已經有一段時間了，而且今天仍然如此。

All right. Great. Appreciate the color.

好的。偉大的。欣賞顏色。

Nate Rickman, Bank of America.

內特·里克曼，美國銀行。

You guys previously guided to like incremental operating expense growth. You used some more like internal investments, but your expense ratio is still trending towards that like low end of like 28% to 25% in that long-term range. I'm just curious like how you expect expenses to trend from the year and like what would net you closer to that high end of that range?

你們之前指導喜歡增量營運費用成長。您使用了更多類似內部投資的資金，但您的費用比率仍然趨向於長期範圍內 28% 至 25% 的低端。我只是好奇您預計今年的支出趨勢如何，以及什麼會讓您更接近該範圍的高端？

Sure. I'm happy to take that. So it was a strong quarter, and we're always managing the business with discipline and efficiency, and we're pleased to have delivered the 20.3% expense ratio that you saw this quarter.

當然。我很樂意接受。因此，這是一個強勁的季度，我們始終以紀律和效率來管理業務，我們很高興實現了您在本季度看到的 20.3% 的費用率。

In terms of quarter-to-quarter moves, there's nothing particular in the quarter that I would point to. And although we do expect natural growth in our expense base, just in line with normal inflationary trends, I don't think there's anything specific that I'd point to in terms of near-term investments that we are going to make that are fundamentally going to alter that picture.

就季度變動而言，我認為本季沒有什麼特別之處。儘管我們確實預計我們的支出基礎會自然增長，與正常的通膨趨勢一致，但我認為，就我們將要進行的短期投資而言，我認為從根本上講，我沒有指出任何具體的內容。那張照片。

Yeah. We're going through our planning process now. I'm just sort of thinking, both in the immediate term and over the long term. And as you should expect, right, we're here to manage our business for the long term. And for the long term, means that we need to be making long-term investments. And so just the natural areas, investing in our people, our systems, our risk management strategies, and our growth will continue to be a focus for us, and obviously, doing that in a way that allows us to maintain the discipline that we've achieved so far is something we're focused on.

是的。我們現在正在經歷我們的規劃過程。我只是在思考，無論是短期或長期。正如您所料，我們的目標是長期管理我們的業務。從長遠來看，意味著我們需要進行長期投資。因此，自然領域、對我們的員工、我們的系統、我們的風險管理策略和我們的成長的投資將繼續成為我們的重點，顯然，這樣做的方式使我們能夠保持我們的紀律。的成就是我們關注的重點。

That's helpful. And then on persistency, it was very stable quarter-over-quarter, but we did see some like great movement onto the tail end of the quarter. I'm just curious if you saw any changes there to persistency like intra-quarter? And do you expect that to change in the near term?

這很有幫助。然後就持久性而言，季度環比非常穩定，但我們確實在季度末看到了一些類似的巨大變化。我只是好奇您是否看到了像季度內這樣的持久性方面的任何變化？您預計這種情況在短期內會改變嗎？

Yeah. Look, I'd say, as we look forward, I'll talk about the look forward and then talk about anything we noted, certainly, persistency remains well above historical trends today. And as we look out into Q4 and into next year, we do expect that, that will remain the case, but that will probably see some natural trending off of our recent peaks as we go forward.

是的。聽著，我想說，當我們展望未來時，我將談論展望，然後談論我們注意到的任何事情，當然，持久性仍然遠高於今天的歷史趨勢。當我們展望第四季度和明年時，我們確實預計情況仍將如此，但隨著我們的前進，可能會看到一些自然趨勢脫離最近的峰值。

In terms of the rate volatility that we saw intra-quarter, boy, it was just so quick, right? I mean rates lagged down by 100 basis points or so, but just for such a short period of time and then bounce back up so sharply and so quickly that we wouldn't expect that to have a meaningful impact or give us meaningful insight into, say, sensitivities within the portfolio.

就我們在季度內看到的利率波動而言，天哪，速度太快了，對吧？我的意思是，利率下跌了100 個基點左右，但只是持續了很短的一段時間，然後又如此急劇、如此迅速地反彈，以至於我們不會期望這會產生有意義的影響或給我們帶來有意義的見解，例如，投資組合內的敏感度。

We can see a bit of uptick in refinancing activity, which is valuable, right? It's an opportunity for us to capture some incremental NIW, recapture whatever is in rotation from our portfolio, but we're talking a matter of weeks of opportunity there.

我們可以看到再融資活動增加，這很有價值，對吧？這對我們來說是一個獲得一些增量國家利益豁免、重新獲得我們投資組合中的任何輪換的機會，但我們談論的是幾週的機會。

Makes sense. That's all from me. Thank you.

有道理。這就是我的全部。謝謝。

Maxwell Fritscher, Truist.

麥克斯韋·弗里徹，真理論者。

I'm calling on for Mark Hughes. Can you give us a sense on how you see mortgage activity trending thus far in 4Q, October in the, I guess, first few days in November?

我請馬克·休斯來。您能給我們介紹一下您如何看待迄今為止 10 月第四季以及 11 月前幾天的抵押貸款活動趨勢嗎？

Sure. Maybe I'll give you a broader perspective because we don't provide intra-period updates or candidly, guidance on our own production. But I'll talk just more broadly about the market and kind of how we see the opportunity developing as we roll into next year.

當然。也許我會給你一個更廣闊的視角，因為我們不提供期內更新或坦誠地指導我們自己的生產。但我將更廣泛地談論市場以及我們如何看待明年的機會發展。

Generally speaking, we expect that the new business opportunity in the MI market will be similar next year to what we've seen this year, which for us is a very strong year overall, where the long-term secular drivers of demand and activity that we've talked about as key continue to come through, where resiliency in house prices supports incrementally larger loan sizes and where candidly, with rates moving higher again, affordability constraints, drive an increasing number of borrowers to the private MI market for downpayment support.

一般來說，我們預計明年 MI 市場的新商機將與我們今年所看到的類似，這對我們來說總體上是非常強勁的一年，需求和活動的長期驅動因素我們已經討論了關鍵的繼續出現，房價的彈性支持逐步擴大的貸款規模，坦白說，隨著利率再次走高，負擔能力的限制，促使越來越多的借款人進入私人MI市場尋求首付支持。

Our sense is that 2024 MI industry NIW volume is pacing to be roughly, call it, around $285 billion plus/minus or so. And we expect a similarly attractive environment in 2025.

我們的感覺是，2024 年 MI 產業 NIW 規模大致約為 2,850 億美元上下左右。我們預計 2025 年也會出現同樣有吸引力的環境。

Obviously, things can always shift depending on how rates continue to develop and how the macro environment evolves, that could create some incremental opportunity or headwind, but our outlook is still is quite positive for where the industry will trend next year.

顯然，事情總是會發生變化，這取決於利率如何繼續發展以及宏觀環境如何演變，這可能會創造一些增量機會或逆風，但我們對該行業明年的趨勢的前景仍然相當樂觀。

Yeah. That's great color. That's all from me. Thank you.

是的。那顏色真棒。這就是我的全部。謝謝。

Geoffrey Dunn, Dowling.

傑弗裡·鄧恩，道林。

Thanks. Good afternoon. Are you able to share the profit commission threshold on the new --?

謝謝。午安.能分享新的利潤佣金門檻嗎？——？

Sure. The -- on the quota shares, so there's quite a bit of detail in our 10-Q on this. There's a subsequent event put now, which will give you all the details, but the profit commission is up to 62% on our 2025 quota share treaty. We also fully placed our 20% 2026 quota share treaty at the same profit commission level, and we partially placed our 2027 quota share at a 61% threshold.

當然。關於配額份額，因此我們的 10-Q 中對此有相當多的細節。現在有一個後續活動，將為您提供所有詳細信息，但根據我們的 2025 年配額份額協議，利潤佣金高達 62%。我們也將 2026 年 20% 的配額份額完全置於相同的利潤佣金水平，並將 2027 年的部分配額份額置於 61% 的門檻。

Yeah. So Geoff, these are tied for the most -- say, the lowest margins, right, highest profit commissions that we've ever achieved. And we locked in three years' worth of coverage as were said there's a little bit that we'll have to place as a stub for '27, but they're terrific, terrific deals, and we're really happy with the execution we were able to achieve.

是的。所以，傑夫，這些與我們所實現的最高利潤佣金有關——比如說，最低的利潤，對的，最高的利潤佣金。我們鎖定了三年的報道價值，正如我們所說，我們必須將一些內容作為 27 年的存根，但它們是非常棒的交易，我們對我們的執行非常滿意能夠實現。

Right. And then the average provision for notice this quarter was down sequentially. Is that mix driven? Or are there any fundamental changes in your reserving assumptions?

正確的。然後，本季的平均通知準備金連續下降。這是混合驅動的嗎？或者您的保留假設有什麼根本性的改變嗎？

Yeah. So look, we carried -- a couple of things, we carried at the end of the third quarter, roughly $25,000 -- sorry, $24,000 average reserve for NOV at September 30, and that compares to about $25,000 per NOD at June 30. So I'd say no fundamental shifts there, right?

是的。所以看，我們在第三季末持有了一些東西，大約為25,000 美元——抱歉，9 月30 日的NOV 平均準備金為24,000 美元，而6 ​​月30 日每個NOD 的準備金約為25,000美元。所以我想說那裡沒有根本的轉變，對嗎？

Our default population in Q3 has generally similar attributes to our default population at the end of the second quarter, right, in terms of ticket, FICO, DTI, LTV, other key variables. There's always small differences in the underlying that can come through as small differences in our reserve picks and particularly just because we have such a small number of defaults themselves. You can get small differences that sort of roll through.

我們第三季的違約群體與第二季末的違約群體總體上具有相似的屬性，對吧，就機票、FICO、DTI、LTV 和其他關鍵變數而言。底層證券總是存在微小的差異，這些差異可能會透過我們的儲備金選擇的微小差異而反映出來，特別是因為我們本身的違約數量如此之少。你可能會得到一些小小的差異，這些差異會逐漸消失。

But generally speaking, nothing really shifted. And I say more broadly though, one of the keys for us that we've talked about for a while now is that for reserving purposes, and generally in terms of embedding conservatism and discipline in how we manage, but explicitly for reserving purposes that we continue to anchor more to our downside forecast when we're setting reserves. We did that at Q3 just as we had done in the second quarter.

但總的來說，沒有什麼真正改變。但我更廣泛地說，我們已經討論了一段時間的關鍵之一是為了保留目的，通常是在我們的管理方式中嵌入保守主義和紀律，但明確地為了保留目的，我們當我們設定準備金時，繼續更關注我們的下行預測。我們在第三季就這樣做了，就像我們在第二季所做的那樣。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）Rick Shane，摩根大通。

Hey, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions this afternoon. I'd like to talk a little bit about cumulative default formation over time. When does formation sort of peak? Obviously, I realize it's cumulative, but when do you see the trajectory start to flatten out in terms of timeline for --?

嘿，大家。感謝您今天下午回答我的問題。我想談談隨著時間的推移累積違約形成的情況。形成何時達到頂峰？顯然，我意識到它是累積的，但是你什麼時候看到軌跡在時間軸上開始變平？——？

It's a great question, Rick. So I want to say, obviously, a lot depends on, right, the environment in which those loans themselves originated, how those borrowers are situated and what develops after they took out their mortgage, right?

這是一個很好的問題，瑞克。所以我想說，顯然，很大程度上取決於這些貸款本身產生的環境、這些借款人的處境以及他們取出抵押貸款後的發展，對嗎？

And if the 2020 and 2021 vintages will have far from normal experience because of the record run of house price appreciation, the buoyant labor market that we have, right, for an extended stretch and still have on the labor side after those origination years.

如果由於房價創紀錄的上漲，2020 年和 2021 年的情況將遠非正常情況，那麼我們的勞動力市場將在很長一段時間內保持活躍，並且在這些年份之後勞動力方面仍然存在。

But if we step back from any specific year and instead just talk conceptually, what we typically see is that peak loss incurrence for a vintage occurs roughly between years three and year six after the origination.

但如果我們從任何特定的年份退一步，只是從概念上討論，我們通常會看到，一個年份的損失高峰大約發生在起源後的第三年和第六年之間。

And if you think about it, this makes sense, right? So essentially, when a borrower is taking out a loan, right, they're making the decision to buy a home, that decision is driven, one, by life events. Typically, that many of them may have got Mary had kids want to put down roots in a particular community, oftentimes a financial decision, right? They may do the rent versus buy calculus, and they'll also look at housing as a way for them to save and build wealth over the long term.

如果你仔細想想，這是有道理的，對吧？因此，從本質上講，當借款人申請貸款時，他們正在做出購買房屋的決定，這項決定是由生活事件所驅動的。通常情況下，他們中的許多人可能想讓瑪麗的孩子在某個特定的社區紮根，這通常是一個財務決定，對嗎？他們可能會計算租金與購買的權衡，他們也會將住房視為長期儲蓄和累積財富的一種方式。

There's a very heavy emotional aspects to it, right? For many borrowers, they're taking on the single largest financial obligation that they'll ever carry. And when you make that decision, you don't do it lightly, right? What you're really saying is you're providing a signal around the confidence that you have in your job prospects, the confidence you have in your household financial profile, your ability to service carry that debt, stay current on it, and obviously have a successful outcome with that purchase.

其中有非常沉重的情感因素，對吧？對於許多藉款人來說，他們正在承擔有史以來最大的單一財務義務。當你做出這個決定時，你不會輕易做出決定，對嗎？你真正想說的是，你正在提供一個信號，圍繞你對工作前景的信心、你對家庭財務狀況的信心、你承擔債務的能力、保持最新債務的能力，並且顯然有這次購買取得了成功的結果。

But like any forecast, right, like any forecast, the ability to predict with accuracy goes down, the longer in the forecast horizon that you stretch. And so that indication, that sort of personal indication statement and confidence that borrowers are signaling typically hold true for those first three years, barring a meaningful shift in the environment in which they've made that decision.

但就像任何預測一樣，準確預測的能力會隨著預測範圍的延長而下降。因此，借款人發出的這種個人指示聲明和信心通常在前三年都適用，除非他們做出決定的環境發生有意義的變化。

But by the time you get to year three or so, right, it could start free a little bit. You can have unexpected things that have developed that have stranger household position, job changes, job loss, all things that can be introduced. And so you typically see then that conviction, the performance can lag from years three by the time that you get to year six, a borrower who's been servicing their debt responsibly consistently for six years.

但當你到了第三年左右的時候，對吧，它可能會開始免費一點。你可能會發生意想不到的事情，例如陌生的家庭地位、工作變動、失業，所有可以介紹的事情。因此，您通常會看到這樣的信念，即到第六年時，績效可能會從第三年滯後，借款人六年來一直負責任地償還債務。

Even if their original forecast, if you will, doesn't hold, that original statement they're making affirmative statement about their position and their wherewithal to service the debt may have shifted, but they have found ways. They built equity, they built wealth. They generally advanced in their careers. They've enjoyed some amount of wage growth and it becomes then obviously a different story in year six, and on. And so that's why we tend to see from years three through six.

即使他們最初的預測（如果你願意的話）並不成立，他們對自己的立場和償還債務的資金做出肯定性聲明的最初聲明可能已經發生了變化，但他們已經找到了方法。他們建立了股權，他們建立了財富。他們的職業生涯總體上取得了進步。他們享受了一定程度的薪資成長，但到了第六年及以後，情況顯然就不同了。這就是為什麼我們傾向於從第三年到第六年進行觀察。

As to the pattern within year three through six, I'll give you the one that you're not going to want, which is, it depends. It depends on the borrower. It depends on the book, the risk profile and the environment in which it's obviously developing.

至於第三年到第六年的模式，我會給你一個你不想要的模式，這取決於情況。這取決於借款人。這取決於書籍、風險狀況以及它明顯的發展環境。

No, Adam, look, it's a fair question, and I will follow up with a question you don't want in a second. But it's interesting to me because I would have assumed to some extent that once you get -- what you're describing makes total sense.

不，亞當，聽著，這是一個公平的問題，我會立即提出一個你不想要的問題。但這對我來說很有趣，因為我會在某種程度上假設，一旦你明白了——你所描述的就完全有意義了。

My experience would have been once you sort of get through that first year and digest what that means through a year that it becomes easier. But I think you're exactly right. It is job loss, health, divorce, and the further out you go, the greater risk that, that occurs.

我的經驗是，一旦你度過了第一年並消化了這一年的意義，事情就會變得更容易。但我認為你是完全正確的。失業、健康、離婚，你走得越遠，發生的風險就越大。

You had said you want to talk about things generically. I'd love to talk about one thing, specifically. And I don't want to put too fine a point on this. But if we look at the '23 -- or the '22 cohort so far versus the '22 cohort last year at the same time, the '23 cohort is actually doing a tad bit better. And again, I don't want to overread into that. But at least now as we look at the cumulative default table, '22 is the one that sort of jumps out.

你曾說過你想泛泛地談論一些事情。我想具體談談一件事。我不想對此過度強調。但如果我們同時觀察 '23 或 '22 群體與去年同期的 '22 群體，就會發現 '23 群體實際上做得更好一些。再說一次，我不想過度解讀這一點。但至少現在當我們查看累積違約表時，「22」是最突出的一個。

Is there anything fundamental fundamentally different about the '23 cohort that should actually cause it to be a little bit better than the '22? Or should we extrapolate the '22 for the '23?

'23 群體有什麼根本性的不同，實際上應該使它比 '22 群體更好一點嗎？或者我們應該用「22」推斷「23」？

Well, we don't give you guidance. So I know you want to talk specifics, but it becomes a bit easier to say we don't give you guidance. What I will say though is, let me focus on -- I'll just say broadly about the '22 and '23 books.

好吧，我們不給你指導。所以我知道你想談談具體細節，但說我們不給你指導會更容易。不過，我要說的是，讓我把重點放在——我只是廣泛地談論「22」和「23」書。

We think that they're performing exceptionally well. We're really pleased with how they've been developing. Those books for us are incredibly high quality, just like the rest of our portfolio. We have applied the same rigor to the risk selection and mix in shaping our '22 and '23 production as we have always done.

我們認為他們的表現非常出色。我們對他們的發展感到非常滿意。對我們來說，這些書的品質非常高，就像我們的其他書一樣。我們一如既往地嚴格執行風險選擇和組合，塑造 '22 和 '23 的產品。

If you look at the underlying risk characteristics on a vintage-by-vintage basis, they're quite similar, no notable differences. We sourced comprehensive reinsurance protection for both of those vintages, again, just as we've always done. So I'd say not to highlight difference in the two of those vintages.

如果你逐年觀察潛在的風險特徵，你會發現它們非常相似，沒有顯著的差異。正如我們一直以來所做的那樣，我們再次為這兩個年份提供了全面的再保險保障。所以我想說不要強調這兩個年份的差異。

But obviously, between our more recent production and prior year vintages. The key difference that we've talked about for some time now is simply the embedded equity position that underpins our more recent book years compared to the older vintages. Borrowers who bought their homes more recently just haven't seen the same record run at house price appreciation, as those borrowers who took out their loans and purchased their homes during the pandemic. But they're also benefiting, I'd say, broadly from still a strong macro backdrop, right, resilient housing market.

但顯然，在我們最近的生產和去年的年份之間。我們已經討論了一段時間的主要區別只是嵌入式股權頭寸，它支撐著我們最近的書籍年份與較早的年份相比。最近購買房屋的借款人並沒有看到與在大流行期間貸款併購買房屋的借款人一樣的房價升值記錄。但我想說，他們也廣泛受益於仍然強勁的宏觀背景，正確的，有彈性的房地產市場。

And so I'd say as we model it, I won't tell you how we model it out between '22 and '23, we do expect that both '22 and '23 will incur higher cumulative claim costs than our earlier book years than 2021 and earlier. Again, it's really the equity dynamic. We expect that performance, though, will continue to track in a really constructive and encouraging way. And I'll also share that our actual experience though, on both of those books is holding quite well versus our original price expectations.

所以我想說，當我們建模時，我不會告訴你我們如何在 22 到 23 之間建模，我們確實預計 22 和 23 都會比我們之前的書年產生更高的累積索賠成本2021 年及之前。再說一遍，這確實是股權動態。不過，我們預期這種表現將繼續以一種真正有建設性和令人鼓舞的方式進行。我也會分享，我們在這兩本書上的實際經驗與我們最初的價格預期相當不錯。

Got it. Okay. Yes. And again, recognizing the benchmarking needs versus 2020 and 2021, which could be two of your best cohorts ever is a little bit of a fall. So I appreciate the answer, Adam. Thank you.

知道了。好的。是的。再說一遍，認識到 2020 年和 2021 年（這可能是您有史以來最好的兩個時期）的基準測試需求有點下降。所以我很欣賞亞當的回答。謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back to management for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉交管理層致閉幕詞。

Thank you again for joining us. We'll be hosting our Annual Investor Day on Thursday, November 21, in New York and will be participating in the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference on December 10. We look forward to speaking with you again soon.

再次感謝您加入我們。我們將於 11 月 21 日星期四在紐約舉辦年度投資者日活動，並將參加 12 月 10 日舉行的高盛金融服務會議。我們期待很快再次與您交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。