挪威郵輪 (NCLH) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

挪威郵輪控股公司 2024 年第二季業績出色,超乎預期,並第三次提高全年指引。他們注重體驗回報和投資回報的策略方法正在產生積極的成果,需求、定價和預訂量都強勁。

該公司的財務表現超出預期,調整後的 EBITDA 和每股盈餘成長,營運利潤率提高,營收指引上調。他們也專注於船隊優化和運力成長,包括新船和現有船的增強。

該公司的永續發展計畫「Sail」和「Sustain」在 2023 年實現了關鍵里程碑。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Donna, and I will be your operator. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder to all participants, this conference call is being recorded.

    早安,歡迎參加挪威郵輪控股公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫唐娜,我將是您的接線生。 (操作員說明) 謹提醒所有與會者,本次電話會議正在錄音。

  • I will now turn the conference over to your host, Sarah Inmon. Ms. Inmon, please proceed.

    現在我將會議交給主持人莎拉英蒙 (Sarah Inmon)。英蒙女士,請繼續。

  • Sarah Inmon - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

    Sarah Inmon - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

  • Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us for our second-quarter 2024 earnings and business update call. I'm joined today by Harry Sommer, President and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings; and Mark Kempa, Executive Vice President and CFO.

    大家,早安。感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第二季財報和業務更新電話會議。今天,挪威郵輪控股公司總裁兼執行長 Harry Sommer 也加入了我的行列。執行副總裁兼財務長 Mark Kempa。

  • As a reminder, this conference call is being simultaneously webcast on the company's Investor Relations website at www.nclhltd.com/investors. Throughout the call, we will refer to a slide presentation that can be found on our Investor Relations website. Both the conference call and the presentation will be available for replay for 30 days following today's call.

    謹此提醒,本次電話會議同時在公司投資者關係網站 www.nclhltd.com/investors 上進行網路直播。在整個電話會議中,我們將參考可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到的幻燈片簡報。電話會議和簡報均可在今天電話會議後 30 天內重播。

  • Before we begin, I would like to cover a few items. Our press release with second-quarter 2024 results was issued this morning and is available on the investor relations website.

    在開始之前,我想先介紹一些內容。我們的 2024 年第二季業績新聞稿已於今天上午發布,可在投資者關係網站上查看。

  • This call includes forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statement contained in our earnings release.

    本次電話會議包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致我們的實際結果與此類陳述有重大差異。這些聲明應與我們的收益發布中包含的警示聲明結合起來考慮。

  • Our comments may also reference non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release and presentation.

    我們的評論也可能參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益發布和演示中包含了與最直接可比較的公認會計準則財務指標和其他相關揭露的調節。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Harry. Harry?

    說到這裡,我想把電話轉給哈利。哈利?

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for our second-quarter 2024 earnings call.

    謝謝莎拉,大家早安。感謝您今天參加我們的 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

  • This is an exciting time for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings. The second quarter has surpassed our expectations with results exceeding guidance on all key metrics, allowing us to increase our full-year guidance for the third time this year.

    對於挪威郵輪控股公司來說,這是一個令人興奮的時刻。第二季的業績超出了我們的預期,所有關鍵指標都超出了指導,這使我們今年第三次提高了全年指導。

  • At our Investor Day, we emphasized our unwavering commitment to balancing return on experience, what we call ROX; and return on investment, or ROI. This strategy is clearly yielding results.

    在投資者日,我們強調了我們對平衡體驗回報(我們稱之為 ROX)的堅定承諾;以及投資報酬率(ROI)。這項策略顯然正在取得成果。

  • We are witnessing robust demand with strong pricing and booking volumes leading to record-breaking advanced ticket sales. This demand, coupled with our onboard offering and high-quality service, has led to strong guest satisfaction scores while we continue to effectively control costs.

    我們看到強勁的需求、強勁的定價和預訂量導致破紀錄的預售票。這種需求,加上我們的機上產品和高品質的服務,在我們繼續有效控製成本的同時,帶來了很高的賓客滿意度。

  • These indicators affirm that our strategic approach is positioning us for sustained, long-term success on our well-defined path forward for continued growth to achieve our Charting the Course strategy, which includes ambitious 2026 financial and sustainability targets.

    這些指標證實,我們的策略方法使我們能夠在明確的持續成長道路上取得持續、長期的成功,以實現我們的「規劃路線」策略,其中包括雄心勃勃的 2026 年財務和永續發展目標。

  • Today, I'm excited to discuss some of our key milestones for the second quarter and the factors that drove our enhanced guidance for the remainder of 2024, which we'll also see how the pillars and initiatives under our Charting the Course strategy are moving the needle for our business.

    今天,我很高興討論第二季度的一些關鍵里程碑,以及推動我們加強 2024 年剩餘時間指導的因素,我們還將看到「制定路線」戰略下的支柱和舉措如何發展我們的業務的針。

  • As these are strongly underpinned by our global sustainability program, Sail and Sustain, we're also excited to share the progress outlined in our recent sustainability report. Later in the call, I will hand it over to Mark, who will provide more color on our second-quarter performance and updated outlook for 2024.

    由於這些都得到了我們的全球永續發展計畫 Sail 和 Sustain 的大力支持,我們也很高興分享我們最近的永續發展報告中概述的進展。稍後在電話會議中,我將把它交給 Mark,他將為我們第二季度的業績和 2024 年的最新前景提供更多資訊。

  • We kicked off the second quarter with impressive momentum, continuing the positive trends from the beginning of 2024 and proudly executing on our exceptional performance pillar. As you can see on slide 4, our second-quarter results beat guidance across the board.

    我們以令人印象深刻的勢頭開啟了第二季度,延續了 2024 年初以來的積極趨勢,並自豪地執行了我們卓越的業績支柱。正如您在投影片 4 中看到的那樣,我們第二季的業績全面超出了預期。

  • Adjusted EBITDA grew 14% and adjusted EPS was up 33%. Notably, we did our year-end target of decreasing net leverage by 1.5 turns a full six months early. As we move forward, we remain committed to further deleveraging with a clear focus on attaining a 2026 target of mid-4 times.

    調整後 EBITDA 成長 14%,調整後每股盈餘成長 33%。值得注意的是,我們提前了整整六個月實現了將淨槓桿率降低 1.5 倍的年終目標。在前進過程中,我們仍致力於進一步去槓桿,明確重點是實現 2026 年約 4 倍的目標。

  • These strong results also allowed us to raise our full-year revenue and earnings guidance. We now expect to end the year with adjusted operational EBITDA margin of 34.5%, a full 400-basis-point improvement over 2023, which puts us well on the way to our 2026 target of approaching historical margin levels of 39%.

    這些強勁的業績也使我們能夠提高全年收入和獲利指導。現在,我們預計今年年底調整後的營運 EBITDA 利潤率為 34.5%,比 2023 年足足提高了 400 個基點,這使我們有望實現 2026 年接近 39% 的歷史利潤水平的目標。

  • We also increased our adjusted EPS guidance for the full year to $1.53, an approximate 120% increase over 2023 and an impressive step forward towards our 2026 target of $2.45. And lastly, we are on track to achieve double-digit adjusted ROIC by year end. This acceleration in our financial results speaks volumes about our team's dedication and hard work.

    我們也將全年調整後每股盈餘指引提高至 1.53 美元,比 2023 年成長約 120%,朝 2026 年 2.45 美元的目標邁出了令人印象深刻的一步。最後,我們預計在年底前實現兩位數的調整後投資報酬率。我們財務表現的加速體現了我們團隊的奉獻精神和辛勤工作。

  • Turning to slide 5. I want to emphasize how our long-term growth platform pillar is set to deliver measured capacity growth and optimize our fleet to drive strong financial returns. Historically, capacity growth has driven outsized revenue and adjusted EBIT growth, and we expect this trend to continue with the incorporation of larger and more efficient, state-of-the-art vessel [store] fleet we shall now give some updates on.

    轉向幻燈片 5。從歷史上看,運力成長推動了巨額收入和調整後的息稅前利潤成長,我們預計隨著更大、更有效率、最先進的船隊的加入,這一趨勢將繼續下去,我們現在將提供一些最新情況。

  • Turning to slide 6. We are currently focused on our next two new ships being delivered into 2025, both currently scheduled for an on-time delivery. Our first milestone in the quarter was the float out of Norwegian Aqua, which we celebrated with our partner, Fincantieri.

    轉向幻燈片 6。我們本季的第一個里程碑是挪威 Aqua 的上市,我們與合作夥伴 Fincantieri 一起慶祝了這一事件。

  • Norwegian Aqua, the first ship in the next-generation Prima-Plus class is an evolution of the previous Prima-class ship and will be 10% larger. This space allows for more innovative offerings, including the world's first ever hybrid rollercoaster and waterslide, the Aqua Slidecoaster.

    挪威 Aqua 號是下一代 Prima-Plus 級的第一艘船,也是先前 Prima 級船的演變,尺寸將增加 10%。這個空間可以提供更多創新產品,包括世界上第一個混合過山車和滑水道——Aqua Slidecoaster。

  • We are also building a digital sports complex with an interactive LED floor and our most expensive 360-degree outdoor promenade, the Ocean Boulevard. We cannot wait for Aqua to make her debut in April 2025.

    我們也正在建造一個數位體育中心,配有互動式 LED 地板和我們最昂貴的 360 度戶外長廊——海洋大道。我們迫不及待地期待阿克婭在 2025 年 4 月首次亮相。

  • Most recently, we also celebrated the float out of Oceanis Allura (sic - see slide 6, "Oceania Allura") at the Fincantieri shipyard in Genoa. This marks the transition to the vessel from dry-dock to fitting-out berth, initiating the final stages of construction.

    最近,我們也在熱那亞芬坎蒂尼造船廠慶祝了 Oceanis Allura(原文如此,請參閱投影片 6,「Oceania Allura」)的下水儀式。這標誌著該船從乾船塢過渡到舾裝泊位,開始了建造的最後階段。

  • Allura will redefine luxury with its designer-inspired interiors, including opulent suites, sophisticated lounges, and exceptional new dining menus. Scheduled to enter service in the Mediterranean in July 2025, she will follow her normal summer season with winter voyages in the Caribbean.

    Allura 將以其設計師風格的內部重新定義奢華,包括華麗的套房、精緻的休息室和獨特的全新餐飲菜單。她計劃於 2025 年 7 月在地中海投入使用,隨後將在正常的夏季航行後在加勒比海進行冬季航行。

  • Oceania was also busy this quarter with the return to service of Marina after an extensive refurbishment. This all-encompassing rejuvenation includes the addition of three new dining options and reimagined penthouse suites.

    大洋洲本季也很忙,因為碼頭經過大規模整修後重新投入使用。這次全方位的復興包括增加三個新的餐飲場所和重新設計的頂層套房。

  • And just as we add more capacity and new features on existing ships, we are also excited for enhancements to our destination and home ports. We're increasing our sailing two exciting destinations, such as Bermuda and Great Stirrup Cay, where we plan to complete construction of our two-ship pier towards the end of next year.

    正如我們在現有船舶上增加更多運力和新功能一樣,我們也對目的地和母港的增強感到興奮。我們正在增加兩個令人興奮的目的地的航行,例如百慕達和大馬鐙島,我們計劃在明年底完成兩船碼頭的建設。

  • We'll also be adding a new home port to our roster in 2025, JAXPORT in Jacksonville, Florida. And in April 2026, NCL will make its return to Philadelphia after a 17-year hiatus. With the addition of Philadelphia, NCL will now service seven of the top 10 largest metropolitan regions in the United States.

    2025 年,我們還將在我們的名冊中添加一個新的母港,即佛羅裡達州傑克遜維爾的 JAXPORT。 2026 年 4 月,NCL 將於時隔 17 年重返費城。隨著費城的加入,NCL 現在將為美國十個大都市區中的七個提供服務。

  • We are excited about our deployment, and our guests are as well, as shown by our booking trends, which you can see on slide 7. The company continues to experience strong consumer demand.

    我們對我們的部署感到興奮,我們的客人也感到興奮,正如我們的預訂趨勢所示,您可以在幻燈片 7 中看到這一點。

  • In the second quarter, we continued to see strong bookings, with our 12-month forward book position at the upper end of our optimal range on strong pricing. During the second quarter, we observed continued strength in onboard revenue as well, which was driven by our guests' continued enjoyment of our shore excursions and onboard amenities, including specialty restaurants and communication services which had been bolstered by the continued implementation of Starlink across the fleet.

    第二季度,我們的預訂量持續強勁,由於定價強勁,我們的 12 個月遠期預訂部位處於最佳範圍的上限。在第二季度,我們觀察到船上收入也持續強勁,這是由於我們的客人繼續享受我們的岸上遊覽和船上設施,包括特色餐廳和通信服務,這些都得益於星鏈在全球範圍內的持續實施。

  • Additionally, pre-booked onboard revenue per capacity day showed solid growth, increasing by 15% as more guests opted for pre-cruise purchases. And as we've seen from prior experience, higher pre-cruise spend typically results in higher overall spend throughout the guest's cruise journey.

    此外,隨著越來越多的客人選擇在遊輪前購買,每個運力日的預訂船上收入也呈現穩健增長,增長了 15%。正如我們從之前的經驗中看到的那樣,較高的遊輪前支出通常會導致客人在整個遊輪旅程中的總體支出較高。

  • As a result, our net yield grew 6.3% during the second quarter, surpassing our guidance by a full 200 basis points. During the second quarter, about 3% of our capacity was originally scheduled to be in the Middle East region with high-teen percentages on our Oceania and Regent brands scheduled to be in that region.

    結果,我們第二季度的淨收益率成長了 6.3%,超出了我們的指導整整 200 個基點。在第二季度,我們約 3% 的產能原計劃位於中東地區,其中大洋洲和麗晶品牌的高百分比產能計劃位於該地區。

  • The cancellation of these itineraries resulted in a very short resell cycle. Despite the setback, results for this quarter were strong enough to offset this, underscoring the robust demand environment for cruises and the agility and effectiveness of our team to overcome difficult challenges.

    這些行程的取消導致轉售週期非常短。儘管遭遇挫折,但本季的業績足以抵消這一影響,凸顯了郵輪需求的強勁環境以及我們團隊克服困難挑戰的敏捷性和有效性。

  • Without a doubt, our financial performance exceeded our expectations. And we're therefore raising our yearly net yield growth guidance, increasing 100 basis points, from 7.2% to 8.2%.

    毫無疑問,我們的財務表現超出了我們的預期。因此,我們將年度淨收益率成長指導上調了 100 個基點,從 7.2% 提高到 8.2%。

  • It is worth noting that our occupancy guidance remains essentially unchanged as we were already guiding to full ships. So the entire increase in our guidance is on the back of stronger pricing. As such, we are anticipating strong pricing growth across all four quarters in 2024.

    值得注意的是,我們的入住率指導基本上保持不變,因為我們已經指導滿船。因此,我們指導的整體成長是在定價走強的背景下實現的。因此,我們預計 2024 年四個季度的價格都會強勁成長。

  • Turning to slide 8. To continue cementing our leading position beyond 2024, I'm excited to announce that our second-quarter advanced ticket sales surpassed the first quarter, increasing 11% year over year and reaching a new all-time high of $3.9 billion. This success was driven by robust pricing, a dynamic deployment mix, coupled with increased pre-sale packages and capacity growth.

    轉向幻燈片 8。 。這一成功得益於穩健的定價、動態的部署組合以及預售包的增加和容量的成長。

  • Now moving on to what is at the core of our Charting the Course strategy, our sustainability program, Sail and Sustain. In June, we were pleased to resolve our annual sustainability report.

    現在我們來談談我們制定路線策略的核心內容,即我們的永續發展計畫「航行與維持」。六月,我們很高興地解決了年度永續發展報告。

  • On slide 9, we summarize some of our main 2023 highlights, which underscore our commitment to integrating sustainability into our overall business approach. So notable accomplishments include achieving our 2024 targets, which equipped 50% of our fleet with shore power Technology a full year early.

    在投影片 9 中,我們總結了 2023 年的一些主要亮點,這強調了我們將永續發展納入整體業務方法的承諾。顯著的成就包括實現我們的 2024 年目標,提前一年為我們 50% 的船隊配備岸電技術。

  • We remain on track to equip 70% of our fleet with this technology by 2025. In fact, we recently celebrated the launch of shore power at Port Miami, making it the first major cruise port on the US East Coast to offer shore power at five of its terminals, including our own Terminal B, the pearl of Miami.

    我們仍有望在2025 年之前為70% 的船隊配備這項技術。港口。

  • We also reached our goal of testing 20% of our fleet with biodiesel blends by expanding tests to four more ships throughout 2023. Our new target is 40% of our fleet to test biodiesel by 2024.

    我們還透過在 2023 年將測試範圍擴大到另外四艘船,實現了用生物柴油混合物測試我們船隊 20% 的目標。

  • Finally, doubling down on our people excellence pillar, we continue diversifying our sourcing, having spent over $635 million with small businesses and businesses with minority, women, veteran, or economically disadvantaged qualifications in 2023. And most recently, Forbes named us as the best American employer for women, a milestone we are particularly pleased with.

    最後,在我們的人才卓越支柱上加倍努力,我們繼續實現採購多元化,到2023 年,我們已在小型企業和具有少數族裔、女性、退伍軍人或經濟弱勢資格的企業上花費了超過6.35 億美元。

  • Our journey does not stop here. We remain dedicated to advancing towards our Sail and Sustain targets going forward, maintaining high standards of operational excellence, and creating lasting value for our business in various stakeholders through sustainable practices. I couldn't be more proud of our entire team for all of these impressive accomplishments.

    我們的旅程不止於此。我們仍然致力於實現未來的航行和永續目標,保持卓越營運的高標準,並透過永續實踐為我們的業務為各個利害關係人創造持久的價值。我為我們整個團隊所取得的所有這些令人印象深刻的成就感到無比自豪。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Mark to walk you through our financial results and outlook. Mark?

    接下來,我將把它交給馬克,讓他向您介紹我們的財務表現和前景。標記?

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Harry, and good morning, everyone. My commentary today will focus on our very strong second-quarter 2024 financial results, our improved full-year 2024 guidance, and our increasingly solid financial position. Unless otherwise noted, my commentary on 2024 net yield and adjusted net cruise cost, ex fuel PCD, are on a constant currency basis and comparisons are to the same period in 2023.

    謝謝你,哈利,大家早安。我今天的評論將重點關注我們非常強勁的 2024 年第二季度財務業績、改進的 2024 年全年指導以及我們日益穩固的財務狀況。除非另有說明,我對 2024 年淨收益和調整後淨遊輪成本(不包括燃油 PCD)的評論均以固定匯率為基礎,並與 2023 年同期進行比較。

  • Let's begin with our second-quarter results, which are highlighted on slide 10. In short, we exceeded guidance across the board, outpacing our targets for the quarter. Starting with the top line, results were impressive, with net yield increasing 6.3%, exceeding our guidance of 4.3% by 200 basis points.

    讓我們從投影片 10 中突出顯示的第二季業績開始。從營收開始,業績令人印象深刻,淨收益率成長 6.3%,比我們 4.3% 的指導值高出 200 個基點。

  • Several factors contributed to the exceptionally strong top-line growth in the quarter, which included robust demand for European, Caribbean, and Alaskan sailings, where the majority of our capacity is deployed this quarter; stronger than anticipated onboard revenue and [closing] sailing demand; and finally, the redeployment of canceled Red Sea sailings were better than our initial expectations.

    有幾個因素促成了本季異常強勁的營收成長,其中包括對歐洲、加勒比海和阿拉斯加航線的強勁需求,我們本季的大部分運力都部署在這些地區;船上收入和[關閉]航行需求強於預期;最後,取消的紅海航行的重新部署比我們最初的預期要好。

  • Looking at costs, adjusted net cruise cost, ex fuel PCD, came in below guidance at $163, primarily due to the timing of certain expenses that will now fall into the third quarter. As expected, our unit costs this quarter included approximately $9 from higher dry-dock days and related costs as compared to '23.

    就成本而言,調整後的遊輪淨成本(不包括燃油 PCD)低於指導值 163 美元,主要是由於某些費用現在將進入第三季。正如預期的那樣,與 23 年相比,我們本季的單位成本包括約 9 美元的乾船塢天數和相關成本。

  • Excluding the impact of the dry-docks, our adjusted next cruise cost, e -fuel PCB. would have been flat year over year, once again demonstrating our ability to fully offset the impacts of inflation with our disciplined cost savings initiatives across the entire organization.

    排除乾船塢的影響,我們調整了下一次巡航成本,e-fuel PCB。年比持平,再次證明我們有能力透過整個組織嚴格的成本節約措施來充分抵消通貨膨脹的影響。

  • These initiatives, combined with robust top line growth, has yielded strong results. Adjusted EBITDA came in at approximately $588 million, surpassing our guidance of $555 million, resulting in a year-over-year increase of 14%. Adjusted EPS was $0.40, exceeding our guidance of $0.32, an increase of 33% compared to the same quarter last year.

    這些舉措與強勁的收入成長相結合,取得了強勁的成果。調整後 EBITDA 約 5.88 億美元,超過我們指引的 5.55 億美元,年增 14%。調整後每股收益為 0.40 美元,超過我們指引的 0.32 美元,比去年同期成長 33%。

  • Overall, we are extremely pleased with our second-quarter performance. Strong top-line growth, combined with our ongoing cost reduction initiatives, enabled us to surpass our guidance metrics for the quarter. This strong momentum positions us well as we look ahead. And as a result, we are raising our earnings guidance, as highlighted on slide 11.

    總的來說,我們對第二季的表現非常滿意。強勁的營收成長,加上我們持續的成本削減舉措,使我們超越了本季的指導指標。這種強勁的勢頭使我們在展望未來時處於有利地位。因此,我們正在提高獲利指引,如幻燈片 11 所示。

  • We are thrilled to announce that for the third time this year, we have raised our full-year guidance, reflecting the strong performance and strength of our business. Since our initial guidance in February, net yield growth is expected to increase 280 basis points to 8.2%. And we have maintained our adjusted net cruise cost, ex fuel PCD, guidance which, excluding the impact of dry-docks, is expected to be flat for the year. I will go into more detail on this a bit later in my remarks.

    我們很高興地宣布,今年我們第三次提高了全年指導,反映了我們業務的強勁業績和實力。自我們 2 月的初步指引以來,淨收益率成長預計將增加 280 個基點,達到 8.2%。我們維持調整後的淨遊輪成本(不包括燃油 PCD)指導,排除乾船塢的影響,預計今年將持平。我將在稍後的發言中對此進行更詳細的討論。

  • As a result of the strong top line and sub-inflationary unit cost growth, we have increased our guidance for adjusted EBITDA by $150 million from $2.2 billion to $2.35 billion. All of this is flowing to the bottom line, resulting in an increase in our adjusted EPS guidance of approximately 25%, underscoring our impressive operational execution and strong market demand. These results mark significant progress towards achieving our Charting the Course 2026 targets as we outlined in May.

    由於強勁的收入和低於通膨的單位成本增長,我們將調整後 EBITDA 的指導值從 22 億美元提高到 23.5 億美元,增加了 1.5 億美元。所有這些都流向了利潤,導致我們調整後的每股盈餘指引增加了約 25%,突顯了我們令人印象深刻的營運執行力和強勁的市場需求。這些結果標誌著我們在實現 5 月制定的 2026 年規劃目標方面取得了重大進展。

  • Moving on to a more detailed look at our guidance on slide 12. We outlined our expectations for the third quarter and full year, as well as the implied metrics for the fourth quarter.

    接下來更詳細地了解我們在投影片 12 上的指導。

  • Starting with net yield, we anticipate net yield growth of almost 6.5% in the third quarter. This growth is driven by several factors. Over 70% of our sailings in the third quarter are in Europe and Alaska, regions where we are experiencing strong demand from North American customers.

    從淨收益率開始,我們預計第三季淨收益率將成長近6.5%。這種成長是由多種因素推動的。第三季我們超過 70% 的航班都在歐洲和阿拉斯加,這些地區的北美客戶需求強勁。

  • Continued strong onboard revenue trends, combined with healthy pre-booking for onboard amenities. Unlike Q2 and Q4, this quarter is unaffected by disruptions from the Middle East cancellations and reroutings. These favorable trends and our ongoing momentum have allowed us to increase our full year net guidance to 8.2%.

    船上收入趨勢持續強勁,加上船上設施的預訂情況良好。與第二季和第四季不同,本季並未受到中東航班取消和改道造成的干擾。這些有利的趨勢和我們持續的勢頭使我們能夠將全年淨指引提高至 8.2%。

  • I want to emphasize that our latest guidance implies a healthy net yield growth of 5% for the fourth quarter. This builds off of an impressive 8% growth in 2023 that was underpinned by 14% pricing. Our Q4 2024 growth also comes in the face of headwinds from rerouted Middle East sailings which comprised 10% of our deployment in the fourth quarter and was disproportionately weighted to our luxury brands.

    我想強調的是,我們的最新指引意味著第四季淨收益率將達到 5% 的健康成長。這是建立在 2023 年令人印象深刻的 8% 成長基礎上的,而這一成長的基礎是 14% 的定價。我們 2024 年第四季的成長也面臨中東航線改道帶來的阻力,中東航線占我們第四季部署的 10%,並且對我們的奢侈品牌的權重不成比例。

  • Now, turning our attention to adjusted net cruise cost, where our guidance remains unchanged, a true testament to the diligent efforts of the entire organization. For the third quarter, we anticipate adjusted net cruise cost, ex fuel PCD, to increase by 3.3% to $156 from $151 in the same period last year.

    現在,我們將注意力轉向調整後的遊輪淨成本,我們的指導保持不變,這是整個組織辛勤努力的真實證明。對於第三季度,我們預計調整後的遊輪淨成本(不包括燃油 PCD)將從去年同期的 151 美元增加 3.3% 至 156 美元。

  • I would like to highlight a few points about the quarterly numbers as there are many moving parts, and I will get into that -- those yearly changes later in my remarks. First, in Q3 of last year, we recognized approximately $2 of nonrecurring benefits.

    我想強調有關季度數字的幾點,因為有很多變化的部分,我將在稍後的演講中討論這些年度變化。首先,在去年第三季度,我們確認了約 2 美元的非經常性福利。

  • Second, keep in mind the timing of expenses. As I mentioned previously, our Q2 unit costs were better than expected primarily due to timing differences of certain expenses between Q2 and Q3. Consequently, on a year-over-year basis, Q3 unit costs are up.

    其次,要注意支出的時間。正如我之前提到的,我們第二季的單位成本優於預期,主要是由於第二季和第三季之間某些費用的時間差異。因此,與去年同期相比,第三季的單位成本有所上升。

  • However, this is merely a timing issue. And for the full year, excluding the impact of dry-docks, we still expect our unit cost to remain essentially flat and in line with our prior guidance.

    然而,這只是一個時間問題。對於全年來說,排除乾船塢的影響,我們仍然預計我們的單位成本將基本保持不變,並與我們先前的指導一致。

  • And third, I will mention variable compensation. We are recognizing higher variable compensation due to our business outperforming initial forecasts. And this has a disproportionate weighting in the third quarter, consistent with the seasonality of our earnings.

    第三,我要提到可變薪酬。由於我們的業務表現超出了最初的預測,我們認識到更高的可變薪酬。這在第三季的權重不成比例,這與我們收益的季節性一致。

  • As a result of strong net yield growth and cost savings initiatives, our third-quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $870 million, which is driving adjusted EPS of $0.92, a 21% increase over the same period in 2023.

    由於強勁的淨收益成長和成本節約舉措,我們第三季度調整後 EBITDA 預計為 8.7 億美元,這推動調整後每股收益為 0.92 美元,比 2023 年同期增長 21%。

  • Moving to slide 13. I'd like to revisit our net yield guidance since our Q1 results in May and highlight the confidence and strength we are seeing for the latter half of 2024. At our Investor Day, we increased our full-year guidance, indicating that the majority of the uplift was expected in the second half of the year.

    轉向投影片 13。預計大部分成長將在今年下半年實現。

  • Giving more detail on this now, we had expected that about $35 million of the $50 million adjusted gross margin improvement, or an increase of 120 basis points of net yield, to materialize in the second half. Today, we are raising our full-year guidance once again with an additional $35 million improvement in adjusted gross margin or 120 basis points in the second half. This positions us to achieve solid net yield growth of 5.9% in the back half of 2024.

    現在提供更多細節,我們預計下半年將實現 5,000 萬美元調整後毛利率改善中的約 3,500 萬美元,即淨收益率增加 120 個基點。今天,我們再次上調全年指引,下半年調整後毛利率額外提高 3,500 萬美元,即 120 個基點。這使我們能夠在 2024 年下半年實現 5.9% 的穩健淨收益率成長。

  • Moving to slide 14. I want to dive a bit deeper into our margin enhancement initiatives. As we stated at our Investor Day, a key pillar of our algorithm is boosting margins and reducing cost across the entire organization. And we continue to see these fruits -- the fruits of these efforts during 2024.

    前往投影片 14。正如我們在投資者日上所說,我們演算法的一個關鍵支柱是提高整個組織的利潤並降低成本。我們將繼續看到這些成果——2024 年這些努力的成果。

  • During the first and second quarters, we have been able to keep our unit costs flat, excluding dry-dock. And as I mentioned earlier, due to the timing, this metric will increase in the third quarter, but should decline in the fourth quarter.

    在第一季和第二季度,我們的單位成本保持不變(不包括乾船塢)。正如我之前提到的,由於時間安排,該指標將在第三季增加,但在第四季應該會下降。

  • And as a result, our adjusted net cruise cost, ex fuel PCD, will be essentially flat year over year, fully offsetting inflation as well as the increased variable compensation due to the company's strong performance. This speed is not easy and is the result of the tireless work of our entire organization and transformation team. I am confident that we will be able to continue this momentum in the years that come.

    因此,我們調整後的淨遊輪成本(不包括燃油 PCD)將基本與去年同期持平,完全抵消了通貨膨脹以及由於公司業績強勁而增加的可變薪酬。這個速度得來不易,是我們整個組織和轉型團隊不懈努力的結果。我相信,我們將能夠在未來幾年繼續保持這一勢頭。

  • Turning to slide 15, we can clearly see the impact of our disciplined approach to earnings and returns as outlined during our recent Investor Day. The key elements of our algorithm are straightforward, improved net yields and rigorous cost management drive margin expansion. That margin expansion, in conjunction with controlled capacity growth, results in substantial adjusted EPS growth.

    轉向投影片 15,我們可以清楚地看到我們在最近的投資者日期間概述的嚴格的收益和回報方法的影響。我們演算法的關鍵要素很簡單,提高淨產量和嚴格的成本管理可推動利潤率擴張。利潤率的擴張,加上受控的產能成長,導致調整後的每股盈餘大幅成長。

  • Moreover, this adjusted EPS growth, when paired with our disciplined capital allocation strategy, allows us to prioritize debt repayment in the short to midterm. This approach not only reduces our net leverage, but also strengthens our balance sheet and enhances our adjusted ROIC, which, by the way, is on target to hit double digits this year, another important milestone toward our 2026 target of 12%.

    此外,調整後的每股盈餘成長與我們嚴格的資本配置策略相結合,使我們能夠在中短期內優先償還債務。這種方法不僅降低了我們的淨槓桿率,還增強了我們的資產負債表並提高了調整後的投資回報率,順便說一句,今年的投資回報率目標將達到兩位數,這是我們實現2026 年12% 目標的另一個重要里程碑。

  • During the second quarter, we improved our trailing 12-month adjusted operational EBITDA margin to 33%. As we close out the year, we anticipate ending with a margin of 34.5%, marking a substantial improvement of 400 basis points from 2023. This progress is a significant milestone as we strive toward our target of approaching historical margins of approximately 39%.

    第二季度,我們將過去 12 個月的調整後營運 EBITDA 利潤率提高至 33%。當我們結束今年時,我們預計利潤率將達到 34.5%,比 2023 年大幅提高 400 個基點。

  • Now, let's shift to our balance sheet and debt maturity profile on slide 16, which has not changed significantly since Q1. During the quarter and as expected, our 6% 2024 exchangeable notes converted to shares. And our net maturity is our $565 million notes due 2024 which we are expecting to refinance and/or partially repay by its maturity in December.

    現在,讓我們轉向投影片 16 上的資產負債表和債務到期情況,該情況自第一季以來沒有發生重大變化。在本季度,正如預期的那樣,我們 6% 的 2024 年可交換票據轉換為股票。我們的淨到期日是 2024 年到期的 5.65 億美元票據,我們預計將在 12 月到期前進行再融資和/或部分償還。

  • Turning over to leverage on slide 17. We are proud that we achieved our net leverage goal six months ahead of schedule, reducing our leverage by approximately 1.5 turns and ending the quarter at 5.9 times. Achieving leverage in the 5s is no small feat since we ended 2023 at 7.3 times. As you know, we are on a multi-year deleveraging journey to derisk the balance sheet, targeting the mid-4s; and this quarter's results are another significant milestone in that journey.

    轉向幻燈片 17 上的槓桿率。我們很自豪我們提前六個月實現了淨槓桿率目標,將槓桿率降低了約 1.5 倍,本季度結束時為 5.9 倍。自 2023 年底我們的槓桿率為 7.3 倍以來,達到 5 倍的槓桿率並非易事。如您所知,我們正在進行多年的去槓桿化之旅,以消除資產負債表的風險,目標是 4 歲以下人口;本季的業績是這一歷程中的另一個重要里程碑。

  • In closing, I want to emphasize that this has been an exceptional quarter where we surpassed guidance across all key metrics. This momentum has enabled us to raise our full-year guidance for the third time. This is all a testament to the strategy we outlined at our Investor Day and that I discussed earlier. We are excited about the second half of the year and remain confident in our strategy going forward.

    最後,我想強調,這是一個特別的季度,我們在所有關鍵指標上都超越了指導。這一勢頭使我們第三次提高了全年指引。這一切都證明了我們在投資者日概述以及我之前討論過的策略。我們對今年下半年感到興奮,並對未來的策略充滿信心。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to Harry for closing remarks.

    說到這裡,我將把它轉回給哈利做結束語。

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • Well, thank you, Mark. I want to close by reminding everyone of the ambitious targets and strategies that we laid out in Investor Day just two months ago, which are listed on slide 17 (sic - 18). Our board vision is to provide guests with exceptional vacation experiences, allowing them to vacation better and experience more.

    嗯,謝謝你,馬克。最後,我想提醒大家注意兩個月前我們在投資者日制定的雄心勃勃的目標和策略,這些目標和策略列在投影片 17(原文如此 - 18)中。我們董事會的願景是為客人提供非凡的度假體驗,讓他們享受更好的假期,體驗更多。

  • This vision is the foundation of our Charting the Course strategy, supported by our four pillars: people excellence, guest-centric product offering, long-term growth platform and exceptional performance. These pillars are all underpinned by our commitment to sustainability through our Sail and Sustain program. This new strategy and vision lead to a simple yet powerful earnings and return algorithm that Mark discussed earlier that will help us deliver on our 2026 financial targets.

    這個願景是我們制定路線策略的基礎,並得到我們四大支柱的支持:卓越的人才、以客戶為中心的產品供應、長期成長平台和卓越的績效。這些支柱都以我們透過航行和永續計畫對永續發展的承諾為基礎。這個新策略和願景催生了馬克之前討論過的簡單而強大的收益和回報演算法,它將幫助我們實現 2026 年的財務目標。

  • Our entire management team is driven and focused on this new strategy, and I'm positive that this quarter's results gives you even greater confidence that we are on track to achieve our long-term goals. We are optimistic about our future and look forward to sharing this journey of growth and success with you.

    我們的整個管理團隊都在推動並專注於這項新策略,我相信本季的業績讓您更有信心,相信我們正在實現長期目標。我們對未來感到樂觀,並期待與您分享這段成長和成功的旅程。

  • With that, I'll hand the call back over to the operator to begin our Q&A session.

    這樣,我會將電話轉交給接線員以開始我們的問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, Harry. (Operator Instructions) Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

    謝謝你,哈利。 (操作員說明)Steve Wieczynski,Stifel。

  • Steve Wieczynski - Analyst

    Steve Wieczynski - Analyst

  • Yeah. Hey, guys. Good morning. Congrats on the results here. So Harry or Mark, in terms of booking trends, it seems like you're obviously well booked out for this year. And as you noted, most of your bookings today are for 2025 or beyond.

    是的。大家好。早安.恭喜這裡的結果。哈利或馬克,就預訂趨勢而言,今年的預訂顯然已經滿了。正如您所指出的,您今天的大部分預訂都是 2025 年或以後的。

  • So just wondering, as we kind of look out to 2025, if you're seeing pretty much strength across all itineraries at this point. Or are there certain itineraries that are getting more attention right now?

    所以我想知道,當我們展望 2025 年時,您是否看到此時所有行程都表現強勁。或是現在有哪些行程受到更多關注?

  • And then you also noted you're at the high end of your -- what you call your optimal book position. But has that optimal book position changed at all, given how much further out your customers are booking these days?

    然後你也注意到你正處於你所謂的最佳帳面位置的高端。但是,考慮到您的客戶現在預訂的距離有多遠,最佳預訂位置是否發生了變化?

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • So I'll take that one, Steve. It's Harry. First off, thanks for the kind work. We were very happy with our results this quarter and our increased guidance for the year as well.

    所以我會接受那個,史蒂夫。是哈利。首先,感謝您的友善工作。我們對本季的業績以及今年增加的指導感到非常滿意。

  • So two different questions, I'll do my best to address both. On the booking trends, not really seeing any key patterns there. We're happy with the strength across the board. We're seeing good strength in the Caribbean, Europe, Alaska, exotics, all the places that we go to.

    這是兩個不同的問題,我會盡力解決這兩個問題。在預訂趨勢上,並沒有真正看到任何關鍵模式。我們對整體實力感到滿意。我們在加勒比海、歐洲、阿拉斯加、異國情調以及我們去過的所有地方都看到了良好的實力。

  • We were pretty meticulous going into '25 with our itinerary planning to do a good job of balancing our demand and supply by region of the world. And we seem to generally be successful.

    進入 25 年,我們非常仔細地規劃了行程,以很好地平衡世界各地區的需求和供應。我們似乎總體上是成功的。

  • But I'll point out one thing that I'm particularly pleased with is Alaska and Europe for next summer. And please don't take that as a comment that I'm not pleased with anything else. We're pleased with everything, but that's one area that seems to be doing particularly well and a little bit ahead of our expectations. So we're happy with that.

    但我要指出的一件事是我特別滿意的是明年夏天的阿拉斯加和歐洲。請不要將此視為我對其他任何事情不滿意的評論。我們對一切都很滿意,但有一個領域似乎做得特別好,並且有點超出我們的預期。所以我們對此感到滿意。

  • In terms of your second comment about whether or not our view of book position has changed, I think so. I think if you were to compare this, for example, to 2019, which is last normal year way back when, I would say that our optimal book position is probably a little bit ahead. But I think that's just due to better analytics, better revenue management tools, better thought to the future.

    關於您關於我們對書籍立場的看法是否改變的第二條評論,我認為是的。我認為,例如,如果您將其與 2019 年(這是去年的正常年份)進行比較,我會說我們的最佳帳面位置可能會領先一些。但我認為這只是由於更好的分析、更好的收入管理工具以及對未來更好的思考。

  • I just want to reiterate, perhaps save a question from someone else in the future, our goal is not to be at record booked positions. Our goal is to be an optimum booked position such that we can maximize yield.

    我只是想重申一下,也許以後不會有人問我們這個問題,我們的目標不是達到創紀錄的預訂位置。我們的目標是成為最佳預訂位置,以便我們能夠最大限度地提高收益。

  • We don't take record booked positions to the bank; we take yield to the bank. And we have calibrated our tools such that sometimes it's okay to slow down bookings in order to raise prices. And one thing that we're particularly proud of that I mentioned in my prepared remarks is we have really seen robust pricing for 2025, up significantly compared to this time last year for '24.

    我們不會向銀行記錄預訂部位;我們將收益存入銀行。我們已經校準了我們的工具,有時可以放慢預訂速度以提高價格。我在準備好的發言中提到的一件讓我們特別自豪的事情是,我們確實看到了 2025 年的強勁定價,與去年 24 年同期相比大幅上漲。

  • And that's something that, obviously, we're going to continue to do our best on to deliver towards our '25 and '26 long-term financial goals, which we mentioned on Investor Day.

    顯然,我們將繼續盡最大努力實現我們在投資者日提到的 25 和 26 長期財務目標。

  • Steve Wieczynski - Analyst

    Steve Wieczynski - Analyst

  • And Harry, maybe if I can ask one more real quick one here. But you made a remark in your prepared remarks about how you're Charting the Course targets are -- you used the word ambitious, which I think is a pretty interesting adjective there. So maybe I'm reading too much into that remark.

    哈利,也許我可以在這裡再問一個真正的問題。但你在準備好的評論中談到了你如何制定課程目標——你使用了「雄心勃勃」這個詞,我認為這是一個非常有趣的形容詞。所以也許我對這句話的解讀太多了。

  • But as we sit here today, I mean, if you guys are targeting double-digit ROIC by the end of this year and your target out to '26 is 12%, I mean that doesn't seem overly ambitious to us. So maybe that's not even a question, but I'll stop there and see how you would respond to that.

    但當我們今天坐在這裡時,我的意思是,如果你們的目標是在今年年底實現兩位數的ROIC,並且到26 年的目標是12%,我的意思是,這對我們來說似乎並不太雄心勃勃。所以也許這根本就不是一個問題,但我會就此打住,看看你會如何回應。

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • I'm not sure I read a question in there either, so I'll try to do my best to respond. Listen, when I say they're ambitious, I mean that we believe that it's the proper cadence that drives the company forward to have great results. So I wouldn't read that my comments that are ambitious, but I think they're crazy, optimistic, nor are they in such a way that we can achieve them.

    我也不確定我是否讀到了其中的問題,所以我會盡力回答。聽著,當我說他們雄心勃勃時,我的意思是我們相信,只有適當的節奏才能推動公司取得偉大的成果。所以我不會讀到我的評論是雄心勃勃的,但我認為它們是瘋狂的、樂觀的,而且它們也不是我們能夠實現它們的方式。

  • We're very much committed, and we are reiterating our support today that we're committed to hitting these targets in '26. And I think the commentary that we gave on book position, the visibility we have into '25, allows us to reiterate the goal that we think we're well on track to achieving that.

    我們非常堅定,今天重申我們的支持,我們致力於在 26 年實現這些目標。我認為我們對圖書位置的評論以及我們對 25 年的可見度使我們能夠重申我們認為我們正在順利實現這一目標的目標。

  • Steve Wieczynski - Analyst

    Steve Wieczynski - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thanks, Harry. Appreciate it.

    好的,太好了。謝謝,哈利。欣賞它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Ben Chaiken, Mizuho Securities.

    謝謝。 Ben Chaiken,瑞穗證券。

  • Ben Chaiken - Analyst

    Ben Chaiken - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I know you called out timing of the factor between 2Q and 3Q for costs, but it sounds like some incremental progress on the cost side as well that helped offset costs both in the quarter and the year. I'm not sure if there's anything you can elaborate on.

    嗨,早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我知道您提到了第二季度和第三季度之間成本因素的時間安排,但這聽起來像是成本方面的一些漸進進展,有助於抵消本季度和年度的成本。我不確定你是否有什麼可以詳細說明的。

  • Were these essentially incremental cost saves as part of the longer-term goal that you found early or maybe incremental opportunities? And I guess what I'm referring to is the incremental compensation expense yet essentially unchanged full-year cost guide. And then any quantification would be super helpful. Thanks. And then I have one more.

    這些本質上是增量成本節省是您早期發現的長期目標的一部分,還是增量機會?我想我指的是增量補償費用,但全年成本指南基本上不變。然後任何量化都會非常有幫助。謝謝。然後我還有一個。

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Good morning, Ben; this is Mark. So you're absolutely right. We continue to be very, very confident in achieving our cost reduction and waste elimination goals. So when you think about the full year, I think in the quarter, our costs were favorable.

    是的。早上好,本;這是馬克。所以你是完全正確的。我們對於實現降低成本和消除浪費的目標仍然非常非常有信心。因此,當你考慮全年時,我認為在本季度,我們的成本是有利的。

  • I think it was, what, $6 million, $7 million. That's just the timing between quarters. But when you step back and you think about that on a full-year basis, you are absolutely right. Due to better performance that we called out, we do have variable comp that is hitting us both in second quarter and second half of the year, disproportionately weighted to the third quarter.

    我想那是,六百萬美元,七百萬美元。這只是季度之間的時間安排。但當你退一步思考全年的情況時,你是絕對正確的。由於我們呼籲更好的業績,我們確實有可變的補償,這在第二季和下半年都會對我們造成影響,而第三季的權重不成比例。

  • So all in all, that indicates that we're actually pacing ahead in terms of our overall $100 million goal that we had committed for this year. So we continue to find new things. We continue to hone in and eliminate waste. We're committed to that and very happy on the progress we're seeing going forward.

    總而言之,這表明我們實際上正在朝著今年承諾的 1 億美元總體目標邁進。所以我們不斷地尋找新的東西。我們繼續磨練並消除浪費。我們致力於此,並對我們所看到的進展感到非常高興。

  • Ben Chaiken - Analyst

    Ben Chaiken - Analyst

  • Got you. That's helpful. And then switching gears, thinking longer term. Sir, are you -- I know the pier will be complete in October '25. Do you plan on making incremental investments in parallel with that opening or do you think it will be subsequent to?

    明白你了。這很有幫助。然後換個方向,考慮更長遠的事。先生,您是嗎?您是否計劃在開業的同時進行增量投資,或者您認為會在開業之後進行?

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • I think there'll be a little bit of both. I think there'll be some parallel investments, but I think this is a long-term development plan for us. As you know, we have one of the largest private islands in the Caribbean. We have lots of real estate to build on, and we have a long-term master plan. So I think you can look to have some -- see some things opening up in '25 with the pier, and more things will come in '26 and '27.

    我想兩者都會有一點。我認為會有一些平行投資,但我認為這對我們來說是一個長期發展計畫。如您所知,我們擁有加勒比地區最大的私人島嶼之一。我們有大量的房地產可供建設,我們有一個長期的總體規劃。所以我認為你可以看看 25 年碼頭會開放一些東西,更多的東西將在 26 和 27 年開放。

  • We are committed. We have a significant percentage, especially of our NCL fleet, visiting there in the winters and, even now, some in the summer as well. Perhaps you cut some of our deployment changes when we announced our '26 deployment for NCL a couple of weeks ago. And we plan to maximize our real estate and what we believe is a competitive advantage in the Caribbean with this island.

    我們承諾。我們有相當大的比例,尤其是我們的 NCL 機隊,在冬季訪問那裡,甚至現在,也有一些在夏季訪問。也許當我們幾週前宣布 NCL 的 '26 部署時,您削減了我們的一些部署變更。我們計劃透過這個島嶼最大化我們的房地產和我們認為在加勒比地區的競爭優勢。

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And Ben, I just want to highlight that that will be over time. We are not anticipating or should you expect there's going to be some level of ramped up CapEx over the next year or two. We will make measured, disciplined investments there while looking to repurpose dollars that were otherwise going to be spent within the organization. So again, it will be in a measured way and associated with returns that we would expect with such investment.

    本,我只是想強調,這將隨著時間的推移而發生。我們不預期也不應該預期未來一兩年資本支出會出現一定程度的增加。我們將在那裡進行有節制、有紀律的投資,同時尋求重新利用原本將在組織內花費的資金。因此,這將是一種經過衡量的方式,並與我們期望的此類投資回報相關聯。

  • Ben Chaiken - Analyst

    Ben Chaiken - Analyst

  • Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you.

    知道了。這非常有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

    謝謝。康納·坎寧安,Melius 研究中心。

  • Conor Cunningham - Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Analyst

  • Thank you. Mark, just sticking with costs. So the core cost performance seems to be tracking ahead. I just -- as you start to think about 2025, I realize you have some lingering dry-dock headwinds. Just any early reads on the puts and takes there. Like, for example, does the development of Jacksonville or the private island start to add incremental cost to next year in general? Just any thoughts there right now. Thank you.

    謝謝。馬克,只是堅持成本。因此,核心性價比似乎正在領先。我只是——當你開始思考 2025 年時,我意識到你有一些揮之不去的乾船塢逆風。只是對看跌期權和看跌期權的早期解讀。例如,傑克遜維爾或私人島嶼的開發是否會總體上開始增加明年的增量成本?現在只是有任何想法。謝謝。

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Good morning, Conor. Look, I think when you think about '25, we're not expecting any material headwinds from our core fundamental costs other than what we would expect against normal inflation, which, again, we've been very adamant we believe we can deliver sub-inflationary costs.

    是的。早安,康納。聽著,我認為,當你想到 25 年時,除了我們對正常通膨的預期之外,我們預計核心基本成本不會出現任何重大阻力,我們再次堅信,我們可以實現低於正常通膨的目標。通貨膨脹成本。

  • But things around the island or even, I think you mentioned, dry-docks. When we think about dry-docks year over year, there is no substantial step-up. I think our dry-dock days might change year over year. It's in the single-digit number.

    但是島上的事情,甚至,我想你提到過,幹船塢。當我們逐年考慮乾船塢時,並沒有出現實質的進步。我認為我們的乾船塢日可能會逐年變化。它是個位數。

  • Now there may be different capacity days in terms of timing of the dry-docks or similar of next year. But overall, that's not a headwind when you think about it from a 20,000-foot level.

    現在,就乾船塢或明年類似的時間安排而言,可能會有不同的運力日。但總的來說,當你從 20,000 英尺的高度考慮時,這並不是一個逆風。

  • So we're focused on -- as we've been saying, we're focused on our algorithm. We believe we can deliver sub-inflationary unit cost growth or better. And Q2 and our second-half guidance is another testament to that, that we're on a strong path toward that course.

    所以我們專注於——正如我們一直所說的,我們專注於我們的演算法。我們相信,我們能夠實現低於通貨膨脹率的單位成本成長或更好。第二季和我們下半年的指導再次證明了這一點,我們正在朝著這個目標邁進。

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • And the only additional color I'll add, as you asked specifically about Jacksonville, we have no material investment. That's an investment led by the local community, which obviously, we're going to partner with by bringing ships there long term. But the debt's on their dime, so to speak, not ours.

    我要補充的唯一一點是,正如您具體詢問傑克遜維爾的情況一樣,我們沒有物質投資。這是一項由當地社區主導的投資,顯然,我們將與當地社區合作,將船隻長期帶到那裡。但可以這麼說,債務是他們的,而不是我們的。

  • Conor Cunningham - Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Analyst

  • Okay. Helpful. And then on the comment --

    好的。有幫助。然後關於評論——

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • I'm sorry, Conor. For color, same situation with Philadelphia, which we also announced.

    對不起,康納。對於顏色,與費城的情況相同,我們也宣布了這一點。

  • Conor Cunningham - Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Analyst

  • Okay. Helpful. Then on the comment of bookings for '25 and just where the curve sits. In the past, you've talked about the negative impact to having like longer, more immersive cruises that won't -- basically will inhibit you from getting back to 2019 occupancy levels. But just given the stated demand, like why wouldn't occupancy be a further tailwind into '25? Also that you just pushing rate in general for yields. Thank you.

    好的。有幫助。然後是關於 25 年預訂量以及曲線所在位置的評論。過去,您曾談到更長、更身臨其境的郵輪旅行的負面影響,但基本上會阻礙您恢復到 2019 年的入住率水平。但鑑於既定的需求,為什麼入住率不會成為 25 世紀的進一步推手?另外,您只是普遍推高收益率的利率。謝謝。

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • I'll just say, Conor -- and I hope I get to the essence of your question. Our core driver of revenue is the first and second guests in the cabin, not necessarily the third guests in the cabin. The third guest doesn't tend to pay very much.

    我只想說,康納——我希望我能明白你問題的本質。我們的核心收入驅動力是機艙內的第一位和第二位客人,不一定是機艙內的第三位客人。第三位客人往往不會付太多錢。

  • So our focus is really more on cabin occupancy than passenger occupancies because those third and fourth guests have been very small marginal benefit. So once again, this really gets to optimizing yield, not necessarily optimizing an occupancy number or something along those lines.

    因此,我們的重點實際上更多是客艙入住率而不是乘客入住率,因為第三和第四位客人的邊際效益非常小。因此,這實際上是為了優化產量,而不一定是優化入住率或類似的東西。

  • Conor Cunningham - Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Analyst

  • That's actually helpful. Thank you.

    這實際上很有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

    謝謝。馬修‧博斯,摩根大通。

  • Matthew Boss - Analyst

    Matthew Boss - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks and congrats on a nice quarter. So two-part question. Harry, on the robust demand that you cited into the back half of the year, could you elaborate on pricing power globally or just any pushback at all that you're seeing in any region?

    偉大的。感謝並祝賀您度過了一個愉快的季度。所以分為兩部分的問題。哈利,關於您提到的下半年的強勁需求,您能否詳細說明全球定價能力或您在任何地區看到的任何阻力?

  • And then, Mark, with the fourth-quarter net yield raised today and if we think about demand momentum, if demand momentum continued, I guess, how linear is the 2.5-point cost spread target multi-year? Thinking if net yields were to continue to outperform your plan, how best do I think about that 2.5-point cost spread?

    然後,馬克,隨著今天第四季度淨收益率的提高,如果我們考慮需求動力,如果需求動力持續下去,我猜,2.5 點的多年成本利差目標的線性如何?考慮一下如果淨收益率繼續優於您的計劃,我如何最好地考慮 2.5 點的成本利差?

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • Okay. Those are two good questions. I mean, I could crack at both of them and then Mark will do some cleanup after my second answer. Because the first one is relatively straightforward. The overwhelming majority of our demand, especially on the NCL brand, but even across Oceania region, comes from the North American consumer.

    好的。這是兩個好問題。我的意思是,我可以破解它們,然後馬克會在我的第二個答案後進行一些清理。因為第一個比較簡單。我們的絕大多數需求,尤其是 NCL 品牌的需求,但即使在整個大洋洲地區,也來自北美消費者。

  • So it really wouldn't be -- well, I'm happy to share what's happening in the rest of the world, which is really good as well. It wouldn't materially impact our numbers anyway. So I think that's a more important answer to the question. The European and Asian consumer is very -- is only, on the margin, important to us.

    所以真的不會——嗯,我很高興分享世界其他地方正在發生的事情,這也非常好。無論如何,這不會對我們的數字產生重大影響。所以我認為這是這個問題的更重要的答案。歐洲和亞洲消費者對我們來說非常重要,只是在邊緣上很重要。

  • But to be clear, they're doing well as well. We are happy with the demand out of Europe. We are happy with demand out of Latin America, Australia, all the places that we sell, core consumers in the US, and they continue to do well for us.

    但要明確說明的是,他們也做得很好。我們對歐洲的需求感到滿意。我們對拉丁美洲、澳洲、我們銷售的所有地方、美國的核心消費者的需求感到滿意,他們繼續為我們帶來良好的績效。

  • In terms of next year, listen, 2.5% is a baseline. Obviously, we are going to do everything in our power to overachieve on yield, and we're going to do everything in our power to overachieve on cost, I mean coming in with better cost. But I think 2.5% is a very good place to start. We only announced that about two months ago. We're still focused on that for '25 and '26.

    聽著,就明年而言,2.5% 是一個基準。顯然,我們將盡一切努力在產量上超額實現,我們將盡一切努力在成本上超額實現,我的意思是以更好的成本進入。但我認為 2.5% 是一個非常好的起點。我們大約兩個月前才宣布這項消息。我們仍然關注 25 和 26 年的情況。

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Matthew, just to highlight some things. So look, when we announced our targets, what I think it would be important to understand is, number one, there is no hockey stick implication or assumption that we're going to do X in '25, and we have to do X -- Y in '26. That was a very broad-based spread that we've committed to.

    是的。馬修,只是為了強調一些事情。所以,當我們宣布我們的目標時,我認為重要的是要理解的是,第一,沒有曲棍球棒暗示或假設我們將在 25 年做 X,而且我們必須做 X - - Y 在'26。這是我們承諾的基礎非常廣泛的傳播。

  • So what do I mean by that? Yes, there may be some variability between quarters either upward or downward of that. I mean it's very, very early when we look at '25 and '26. So I wouldn't get caught up on the quarterly spread; I would concentrate on the full year spread, which is what we're aiming for. And again, we're not assuming any sort of hockey stick scenario, and I think that's the important thing to keep in mind in your models and your thinking.

    那我這是什麼意思呢?是的,季度之間可能存在一些變化,無論是向上還是向下。我的意思是,當我們回顧 25 年和 26 年時,現在還非常非常早。這樣我就不會被季度利差所困擾;我會專注於全年的分佈,這就是我們的目標。再說一次,我們不會假設任何類型的曲棍球棒場景,我認為這是在你的模型和思維中要記住的重要事情。

  • Matthew Boss - Analyst

    Matthew Boss - Analyst

  • Great color. Best of luck.

    顏色很棒。祝你好運。

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • Thank you, Matt.

    謝謝你,馬特。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Brandt Montour, Barclays.

    謝謝。布蘭特·蒙圖爾,巴克萊銀行。

  • Brandt Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Montour - Analyst

  • Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. So the first one just on the fourth-quarter implied guide. I think the fourth-quarter implied guidance on our math per diems is something in the low-2 percentage range, and I think there's Middle East there. Can you -- Mark, can you just sort of quantifying what the Middle East impact is in the fourth quarter in particular?

    大家早安。感謝您提出我的問題。所以第一個只是關於第四季的暗示指導。我認為第四季度對我們每日每日津貼數學計算的隱含指導是在低 2% 的範圍內,而且我認為那裡有中東。馬克,您能否量化一下中東地區的影響,特別是第四季的影響?

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Look, good morning. As we've talked about before in the Middle East, I think, a call or two earlier in our -- in the year, we had said the Middle East Red Sea was about a 1 to 2-point impact for the year. And if you think about that on the quarters, it's disproportionately weighted to Q4 of this year because about 10% of our capacity was in that region.

    是的。瞧,早安。正如我們之前在中東討論過的那樣,我想,在今年早些時候的一兩次電話中,我們曾說過中東紅海對今年的影響約為 1 到 2 個點。如果你考慮一下各個季度的情況,你會發現今年第四季的權重不成比例,因為我們大約 10% 的產能位於該地區。

  • So I can't give you a full -- I'm not going to give you full or complete quantification for Q4, other than I would urge you to consider that it was 10% of our deployment that was disproportionately weighted on our luxury brand. So it is certainly weighing down on the fourth quarter.

    所以我不能給你一個完整的——我不會給你第四季度的全面或完整的量化,除了我會敦促你考慮到我們的部署的 10% 不成比例地偏重於我們的奢侈品牌。因此,這肯定會給第四季度帶來壓力。

  • That said, as I've also said in my remarks, fourth quarter of last year, we had 14% pricing growth and 8% yield. And even more importantly, I think when you look at the fourth quarter and the second half and you think about the progression that we've made over the last four to five months, we have continually increased our guidance for both the third and fourth quarters consistently.

    也就是說,正如我在發言中所說,去年第四季度,我們的定價成長了 14%,殖利率為 8%。更重要的是,我認為當你回顧第四季度和下半年,並考慮我們在過去四到五個月中取得的進展時,我們不斷增加對第三季度和第四季度的指導始終如一。

  • And I think that is a testament that we are seeing strength and we are seeing strong momentum. So I'll leave you with that, and -- but I think we're very satisfied with where we are. And hopefully, we can outperform that.

    我認為這證明我們正在看到力量,我們正在看到強勁的勢頭。所以我就剩下這個了,而且——但我認為我們對我們現在的處境非常滿意。希望我們能夠超越這一點。

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • And the only additional color, Brandt, that I'll add is we now -- as I said earlier in the Q&A session, we managed to yield, not to price. And we're guiding now to a 5-point yield increase year over year, which -- quite frankly, considering that we're guiding at 6% now for Q2 and Q3, we don't view that as a material difference.

    布蘭特,我要補充的唯一額外的顏色是我們現在——正如我在問答環節早些時候所說的,我們成功地實現了收益,而不是價格。我們現在指導收益率年增 5 個百分點,坦白說,考慮到我們現在對第二季和第三季的指導利率為 6%,我們不認為這是一個重大差異。

  • We don't go 6% one quarter, 5% another quarter as anything other than the normal ebbs and flows of businesses. So I think this conversation about some sort of deceleration can finally be put to bed. We tried last time, but we're obviously weren't successful. Hopefully, after this time, we can finally put that to bed.

    除了正常的業務潮起潮落之外,我們不會一個季度成長 6%,另一個季度成長 5%。所以我認為關於某種減速的討論終於可以結束了。我們上次嘗試過,但顯然沒有成功。希望這次之後,我們終於可以解決這個問題了。

  • Brandt Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Montour - Analyst

  • Thanks for that, Harry and Mark. So on a follow-up question, Marriott this morning talked about seeing a slightly lower ancillary spend across the system. The US was implicated in that.

    謝謝你,哈利和馬克。因此,在後續問題上,萬豪今天早上談到了整個系統的輔助支出略有下降。美國也捲入其中。

  • Again, broad-based, but slight -- you guys have your own real-time cash register. Are you seeing any wobbles or waivers in that onboard spend over the last few weeks? Sorry for the short-term question, but it's topical.

    再說一次,基礎廣泛,但意義不大——你們有自己的即時收銀機。您是否發現過去幾週船上支出有任何波動或豁免?抱歉問這個短期問題,但這是一個熱門話題。

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. I'll give you a short answer and then a longer answer. So the short answer is no. We are seeing no, absolutely zero, decrease in onboard spend. I think we mentioned in our prepared remarks, in fact, that the preselling of onboard is actually up considerably over the prior period that we comped it to.

    當然。我先給你一個簡短的答案,然後再給你一個較長的答案。所以簡短的回答是否定的。我們發現船上支出沒有減少,而且絕對是零。事實上,我認為我們在準備好的發言中提到,船上的預售實際上比我們同期的上一時期大幅增加。

  • The slightly longer answer is you need to keep in mind a couple of factors. The huge value gap between hotel ADRs and cruise line yields -- I think at our Investor Day, we referenced a 40% value gap, which really still means we have tremendous runway to go to catch up the hotels. We consider that a long-term tailwind for the company.

    稍微長一點的答案是您需要記住幾個因素。飯店 ADR 和郵輪公司收益率之間存在著巨大的價值差距——我想在我們的投資者日,我們提到了 40% 的價值差距,這實際上仍然意味著我們有巨大的跑道可以追趕飯店。我們認為這對公司來說是一個長期的推動力。

  • And also the fact that because our bookings pattern is so much further in advance, we have lots of opportunities to engage with our consumer and discuss with them all the value of being on our ship. I gave a little bit of the fact that the people are in our product the whole time. Unlike a hotel where people come and go, they are on the ship for extended periods of their vacation, which gives us a little bit of a tailwind there as well.

    事實上,由於我們的預訂模式提前了很多,我們有很多機會與消費者互動,並與他們討論在我們船上的所有價值。我透露了一點事實:人們一直都在我們的產品中。與人們來來去去的酒店不同,他們在船上度過了很長一段時間的假期,這也給我們帶來了一些順風。

  • So overall, the short answer is no cracks, no deterioration. If anything, it continues to be strong. And more long term, I think there are fundamental things that work in our favor, that make our business quite a bit more resilient than the hotel on the ancillary/onboard spend category.

    所以總的來說,簡短的答案是沒有裂縫,沒有惡化。如果有什麼不同的話,那就是它繼續保持強勢。從長遠來看,我認為有一些基本的事情對我們有利,使我們的業務在輔助/機上支出類別上比酒店更具彈性。

  • Brandt Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Montour - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thanks, everyone.

    完美的。感謝大家。

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • Next question?

    下一個問題?

  • Sarah Inmon - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

    Sarah Inmon - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

  • Donna?

    唐娜?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • My apologies. My mic was muted. Vince Ciepiel, Cleveland Research Company.

    我很抱歉。我的麥克風被靜音了。文斯‧西皮爾 (Vince Ciepiel),克里夫蘭研究公司。

  • Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

    Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

  • Great. So really encouraging to hear about the positive revision of the fourth quarter. And I think you used the word robust to describe what you're seeing for pricing for 2025. So it sounds like things are setting up pretty well for that low to mid-single-digit yield growth range that you target.

    偉大的。聽到第四季的正面修正真是令人鼓舞。我認為您使用「穩健」這個詞來描述您對 2025 年定價的預期。

  • Could you comment on how you think new hardware and maybe any itinerary or geographic type changes could impact yield for next year? Is it something that you think will be accretive, neutral, dilutive to yield? How should we be thinking about that?

    您能否評論一下您如何看待新硬體以及任何行程或地理類型的變化可能會影響明年的產量?您認為它會增加收益、中性收益、稀釋收益嗎?我們該如何思考這個問題?

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • I -- so thanks, Vince. I think the reiteration of the low to mid-single-digit yield growth for next year is spot on, and that continues to be our goal for '25 and '26. When we look at our deployment mix for '25 versus '24, obviously, there's some changes on the margin, but it's not a substantial change year over year. . Obviously, we didn't have any new hardware come online this year, which would be a tailwind for next year.

    我——非常感謝,文斯。我認為重申明年低至中個位數的收益率成長是正確的,這仍然是我們 25 年和 26 年的目標。當我們查看 '25 與 '24 的部署組合時,顯然,邊際上存在一些變化,但逐年變化並不是很大。 。顯然,我們今年沒有任何新硬體上線,這將是明年的推動力。

  • We have two ships coming on next year, one a little earlier, one towards the back half of the year. So I don't think that new ships will have a material impact as well. I think most of what you see next year is just going to be organic based on marketing, demand, tweaking revenue management tools, and just being more effective at executing in the company. So I don't think there's any huge one-time or ancillary items that impact yield for next year.

    明年我們有兩艘船即將開工,一艘稍早一點,一艘在今年下半年。所以我認為新船也不會產生實質影響。我認為你明年看到的大部分內容都將是基於行銷、需求、調整收入管理工具以及在公司中更有效地執行的有機內容。因此,我認為沒有任何巨大的一次性或輔助項目會影響明年的產量。

  • Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

    Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

  • Thanks. And an unrelated follow-up on loyalty. I know this is something we've talked about briefly in the past. Just curious you guys are at in that process and if you've given more thought or already taking steps to help reward folks for staying within the brand family across the portfolio of brands.

    謝謝。還有一個與忠誠度無關的後續行動。我知道這是我們過去簡短討論過的事情。只是好奇你們正處於這個過程中,以及你們是否給予了更多思考或已經採取措施來幫助獎勵那些留在品牌組合中的品牌家族的人們。

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Good question, Vince. it's not really something we're prepared to talk about yet. Obviously, what we see in the industry is on our radar screen, and we're studying it, but not really in a place to comment at the current time.

    好問題,文斯。我們還沒準備好談論這件事。顯然,我們在行業中看到的情況都在我們的雷達螢幕上,我們正​​在研究它,但目前還沒有真正發表評論的地方。

  • Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

    Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. James Hardiman, Citi.

    謝謝。花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

  • James Hardiman - Analyst

    James Hardiman - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning and thanks for taking my questions on. So you guys have done a great job the last couple of quarters and really implied in the guidance for the year, on the cost front, basically keeping net cruise cost flat, ex the dry-dock.

    嘿,早上好,感謝您回答我的問題。因此,你們在過去幾個季度做得很好,並且在今年的指導中真正暗示了在成本方面,基本上保持淨遊輪成本(乾船塢除外)持平。

  • Maybe help us think through how long you can continue to do that, i.e., as we think about this year, was there a disproportionate benefit from some of the cost saves that would inevitably slow next year? And I guess, conversely, how to think about inflation next year? Or could that flattish, ex dry-dock, trend continue for longer? Thanks.

    也許可以幫助我們思考您可以繼續這樣做多久,即,正如我們今年所思考的那樣,明年不可避免地會放緩的一些成本節省是否會帶來不成比例的好處?我想,相反,如何看待明年的通膨?或者說,這種平坦的、前幹船塢的趨勢會持續更久嗎?謝謝。

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Good morning, James; it's Mark. So thanks for the question. Look, as we've stated and, more importantly, as we've committed, we've said that we're targeting $300 million of savings over the course of the three years through 2026. And we're confident in that. It doesn't mean it's in the bag, but it's an ever-evolving journey.

    早上好,詹姆斯;是馬克。謝謝你的提問。看,正如我們所說,更重要的是,正如我們所承諾的那樣,我們的目標是在 2026 年之前的三年內節省 3 億美元。這並不意味著它已收入囊中,但這是一個不斷發展的旅程。

  • And we think we have the right tools. We have the right culture that's in place. We are seeing changes in the organization, and we're starting to eliminate waste effectively. And again, it remains to be seen, when you think about next year, what is inflation.

    我們認為我們擁有正確的工具。我們擁有正確的文化。我們看到組織發生了變化,我們開始有效地消除浪費。再說一遍,當你考慮明年時,什麼是通貨膨脹,還有待觀察。

  • We generally think of inflation as somewhere around 3%. And of course, we all know that could be up or down. But our goal is to mitigate some or all of that.

    我們通常認為通貨膨脹率約為 3%。當然,我們都知道這可能會上升或下降。但我們的目標是減輕部分或全部影響。

  • And what I can say is to date, and our performance indicates it, we are doing well on that track. And we're actually ahead of that track for 2024. So a bit early to comment on what 2025 is going to look like, but we have a lot of runway.

    我能說的是,到目前為止,我們的表現表明,我們在這條賽道上做得很好。事實上,我們已經領先 2024 年的軌道了。

  • We have a lot of annualization from initiatives that started this year that we'll get the full annualization of next year. So we're feeling comfortable on our targets, and we are laser-focused on this, in eliminating that waste but preserving the entire guest experience and the product that we're known to deliver.

    我們從今年開始的舉措中獲得了許多年化收益,我們將在明年獲得完整的年化收益。因此,我們對我們的目標感到滿意,並且我們全神貫注於此,消除浪費,但保留整個賓客體驗和我們眾所周知的產品。

  • James Hardiman - Analyst

    James Hardiman - Analyst

  • Got it. And then obviously, it's way too early to really handicap 2025 in terms of some of the key demand and cost factors. But I don't know if you could maybe help corral us in terms of some of the below-the-line items, as I think about interest expense, share count, D&A for next year.

    知道了。顯然,就某些關鍵需求和成本因素而言,現在就真正阻礙 2025 年的發展還為時過早。但我不知道你是否可以幫助我們處理一些線下項目,因為我正在考慮明年的利息支出、股票數量、D&A。

  • Obviously, your balance sheet is changing. You've got some converts. Any help with that math so we could all be maybe within the same ballpark.

    顯然,您的資產負債表正在改變。你已經有了一些皈依者。任何數學方面的幫助,這樣我們就可以在同一個範圍內。

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So first, on share count, I think we've been guiding to about 515 million or 516 million fully diluted. And I would expect that number to be very similar next year because that does assume that all of our convertibles that are out on the horizon are converted to shares.

    是的。首先,就股份數量而言,我認為我們一直在指導大約 5.15 億股或完全稀釋後的 5.16 億股。我預計明年這個數字將非常相似,因為這確實假設我們所有即將推出的可轉換債券都轉換為股票。

  • That is not our intention, of course, for our 2027 as we've always said. But the 2025 convertibles, we expect to convert to shares because we don't have another option.

    當然,正如我們一直所說的那樣,這並不是我們 2027 年的意圖。但對於 2025 年的可轉換債券,我們預期會轉換為股票,因為我們沒有其他選擇。

  • In terms of D&A, I think our D&A generally runs probably about 9.5% or so of gross revenue. And I would anticipate that it's probably going to be in that same zone going forward.

    就 D&A 而言,我認為我們的 D&A 通常大約佔總收入的 9.5% 左右。我預計未來它可能會處於同一區域。

  • And in terms of interest, again, I think we continue to make progress on the interest. We're guiding to what we guided to about $760 million or so this year. And I think that's about -- what is that, about 6.5% or so of gross.

    在興趣方面,我認為我們在興趣方面繼續取得進展。我們今年的目標是約 7.6 億美元。我認為這大約是——那是什麼,大約佔總收入的 6.5% 左右。

  • As we continue to pay down debt, as hopefully, we can take out some debt early, as we've potentially indicated with our 2024 December maturity, I think, hopefully, we can continue to see some improvement on that front. So I'm not going to give you a specific number on it. But think about where we are this year, $730 million, $740 million or s. I think that would probably be a consistent percent of gross revenue or better.

    隨著我們繼續償還債務,正如我們希望的那樣,我們可以提前償還一些債務,正如我們可能在 2024 年 12 月到期時表明的那樣,我認為,希望我們可以繼續看到這方面的一些改進。所以我不會給你具體的數字。但想想我們今年的處境,7.3 億美元、7.4 億美元或更多。我認為這可能是總收入的固定百分比或更好。

  • James Hardiman - Analyst

    James Hardiman - Analyst

  • Got it. Really helpful. Thanks, Mark.

    知道了。真的很有幫助。謝謝,馬克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

    謝謝。莉齊·多夫,高盛。

  • Lizzie Dove - Analyst

    Lizzie Dove - Analyst

  • Hi there. Thanks so much for taking the question and congrats on a nice set of results. I just wanted to ask about kind of the algo, I suppose, for net yield. It feels like maybe the growth side of things in terms of onboard and ticket was a touch lower than expected, but really, really nice kind of commissions leverage that you got there.

    你好呀。非常感謝您提出這個問題,並祝賀取得了一系列不錯的結果。我只是想問一下關於淨收益的演算法。感覺上在機上和機票方面的成長可能比預期要低一些,但你所獲得的佣金槓桿確實非常非常好。

  • So I guess any change of how you're kind of thinking about that longer term? And I'll ask my follow-up now is the -- how much more room to go is there on that commissions leverage that you're getting? And is that really just coming from more direct bookings, change in demographics that you're seeing? Any help there would be great. Thank you.

    所以我猜你對長期的看法有什麼改變嗎?我現在要問的是──你們獲得的佣金槓桿還有多少空間?這真的只是來自於更直接的預訂以及您所看到的人口統計數據的變化嗎?任何幫助都會很棒。謝謝。

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • Thank you, Lizzie. And we've seen the questions in your initial report this morning, too, so we appreciate the heads up on it.

    謝謝你,莉齊。今天早上我們也看到了你們在初次報告中提出的問題,因此我們非常感謝您的提醒。

  • So I'll just say at a high level. I understand how you drew the conclusion you did that the benefit was based on commission or direct bookings or something like that. But I just want to explain that was not the case. The entire benefit we saw in that line was as the result of better air purchasing.

    所以我只是從高層次來說。我理解您如何得出這樣的結論:收益是基於佣金或直接預訂或類似的東西。但我只是想解釋一下事實並非如此。我們在該系列中看到的全部好處是更好的空氣採購的結果。

  • So as you know, we bundle air on Oceania region, NCL, and anywhere between 35% and 60% of our guests depending on the brand and the regions. And as we're able to buy air more effectively, we pass on the savings to the guests, which results in lower gross revenue and lower air costs that they would show up in the commission transportation and other line, yet better net revenue because we believe our air program is a competitive advantage in driving demand.

    如您所知,我們在大洋洲地區、NCL 以及 35% 至 60% 的客人的任何地方捆綁航空服務,具體取決於品牌和地區。由於我們能夠更有效地購買空氣,我們將節省的費用轉嫁給客人,這會導致他們在佣金運輸和其他線路中表現出的總收入和航空成本降低,但淨收入會更好,因為我們相信我們的航空計劃是推動需求的競爭優勢。

  • So therefore, for us, having higher net revenue and lower gross revenue is actually a huge benefit, which I think an analyst community misunderstands. They think we missed on growth. It's actually a benefit. It means we're buying air more effectively, again, tackling on those savings to the guests, which allow us to have a more robust demand environment.

    因此,對我們來說,擁有更高的淨收入和更低的總收入實際上是一個巨大的好處,我認為分析師群體對此有誤解。他們認為我們錯過了成長。這實際上是一個好處。這意味著我們可以更有效地購買空氣,為客人節省開支,這使我們能夠擁有更強勁的需求環境。

  • In terms of how much more leverage there may be on buying air better, listen, we have a team. This is what they do. They -- we continue to do our best to contract with new carriers, especially both on the domestic and international front. That gives us more choices to offer our guests.

    至於更好地購買空氣可能有多大影響力,聽著,我們有一個團隊。這就是他們所做的。我們將繼續盡最大努力與新的營運商簽訂合同,尤其是在國內和國際方面。這讓我們為客人提供了更多選擇。

  • So I do not think we have run the entire course. I could sort of -- although it doesn't necessarily show up in cost, so it is officially part of the transformation office for the $300 million that Mark mentioned. Clearly, find air better and providing that benefit to the guest is a long-term benefit for the company.

    所以我認為我們還沒有跑完整個課程。我可以——儘管它不一定會體現在成本上,所以它正式成為馬克提到的 3 億美元轉型辦公室的一部分。顯然,找到更好的空氣並為客人提供這種好處對公司來說是一項長期利益。

  • Lizzie Dove - Analyst

    Lizzie Dove - Analyst

  • Thank you. That's helpful.

    謝謝。這很有幫助。

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • I think we have, operator, time for one more question.

    接線員,我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Dan Politzer, Wells Fargo.

    謝謝。丹‧波利策,富國銀行。

  • Dan Politzer - Analyst

    Dan Politzer - Analyst

  • Hey Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to follow up on that, the difference between gross and net. As we think about the remainder of the year and obviously, given that net yield guidance, should we think about that transportation and airfare costs continuing to be down year over year? Or should gross and net be changing at a similar pace for the rest of the year?

    嘿大家早安,感謝您提出我的問題。我只是想跟進一下毛額和淨額之間的差異。當我們考慮今年剩餘時間時,顯然,考慮到淨收益指導,我們是否應該考慮交通和機票成本繼續逐年下降?或者今年剩餘時間裡總量和淨值是否應該以類似的速度變化?

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • I think, Dan, generally speaking, to the extent we can continue to improve on that line item, we're going to continue to improve on it. Obviously, we are at the mercy of some of the market volatility in terms of whatever air does, but I think it's a good assumption to assume that we're going to continue to work hard on that and see improvement.

    我認為,丹,一般來說,只要我們能夠繼續改進該訂單項,我們就會繼續改進它。顯然,無論空氣如何變化,我們都會受到一些市場波動的影響,但我認為假設我們將繼續努力並看到改善,這是一個很好的假設。

  • So bit of a not exact answer because I think there is some variability there, but I think we're going to continue to see improvements there.

    這是一個不準確的答案,因為我認為那裡存在一些可變性,但我認為我們將繼續看到那裡的改進。

  • Dan Politzer - Analyst

    Dan Politzer - Analyst

  • Got it. And then obviously, you reached your year-end target for leverage pretty much in this quarter. How should we think about the year-end net leverage target at this point? If there's any way to just kind of help us as we think about the working capital and those other moving pieces in terms of your balance sheet and cash flow.

    知道了。顯然,您在本季幾乎達到了年終槓桿目標。此時我們該如何看待年末淨槓桿目標?當我們考慮營運資金以及資產負債表和現金流方面的其他變動因素時,是否有任何方法可以幫助我們。

  • Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Kempa - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I think the way to think about it is it provides us another solid milestone toward our 2026 target of mid-4s. I think, generally, the models out there know what our debt is -- net debt is. And I think you have a good handle on, obviously, where our EBITDA is. So we are making progress, and we think by year-end, we're going to see significant improvements in that quarter after quarter.

    是的。我認為思考它的方式是,它為我們實現 2026 年 4 歲左右的目標提供了另一個堅實的里程碑。我認為,一般來說,現有的模式知道我們的債務是什麼——淨債務是什麼。顯然,我認為您很清楚我們的 EBITDA 狀況。所以我們正在取得進展,我們認為到年底,我們將看到一個又一個季度的顯著改善。

  • Dan Politzer - Analyst

    Dan Politzer - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks so much.

    知道了。非常感謝。

  • Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

    Harry Sommer - Chief Executive Officer, President

  • Okay. So once again, I want to thank everyone for joining us today. We'll be around to answer any questions you may have. Have a great day, and we look forward to seeing you in our next call. Thanks, everyone.

    好的。我要再次感謝大家今天加入我們。我們將隨時回答您的任何問題。祝您有美好的一天,我們期待在下次通話中見到您。感謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy your day.

    謝謝。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路或退出網路廣播,享受美好的一天。