挪威郵輪 (NCLH) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Maria and I will be your operator. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder to all participants, this conference call is being recorded.

    早上好,歡迎參加挪威郵輪控股公司 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我叫瑪麗亞,我將擔任您的接線生。(操作員指示)提醒所有參與者,本次電話會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Sarah. Ms. Inmon, please proceed.

    現在我想將會議交給主持人莎拉。伊蒙女士,請繼續。

  • Sarah Inmon - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

    Sarah Inmon - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

  • Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings and business update call. I'm joined today by Harry Sommer, President and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings; and Mark Kempa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝你,瑪麗亞,大家早安。感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季和全年財報和業務更新電話會議。今天和我一起出席的還有挪威郵輪控股公司總裁兼執行長 Harry Sommer;以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Mark Kempa。

  • As a reminder, this conference call is being simultaneously webcasted on the company's investor relations website. We will also make reference to a slide presentation during this call, which can be found on our website. Both the conference call and presentation will be available for a replay for 30 days following today's call.

    提醒一下,本次電話會議正在公司投資者關係網站上同步進行網路直播。我們還將參考本次電話會議中的幻燈片演示,您可以在我們的網站上找到。電話會議和簡報將在今天的電話會議結束後的 30 天內提供重播。

  • Before we begin, I would like to cover a few items. Our press release with fourth quarter and full year 2024 results was issued this morning and is available on our website. This call includes forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements should be considered in conjunction with a cautionary statement contained in our earnings release.

    在我們開始之前,我想先談幾點。我們今天早上發布了有關 2024 年第四季和全年業績的新聞稿,可在我們的網站上查閱。本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致我們的實際結果與此類陳述有重大差異。這些聲明應與我們的收益報告中包含的警告聲明一起考慮。

  • Our comments may also reference non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release and presentation.

    我們的評論也可能參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益報告和介紹中包含了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳以及其他相關揭露。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Harry Sommer. Harry.

    說到這裡,我想把電話轉給哈里·索默 (Harry Sommer)。哈利。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today to share our exceptional fourth quarter and full year 2024 results. Throughout 2024, we remained laser focused on our vision of having our guests vacation better and experience more.

    謝謝你,莎拉,大家早安。我很高興今天能在這裡分享我們出色的第四季和 2024 年全年業績。在整個 2024 年,我們始終專注於我們的願景,讓我們的客人享受更好的假期並體驗更多。

  • I am thrilled with the enhancement to our product offering and guest experiences, and I'm particularly excited about the groundbreaking innovations to our ships debuting in 2025, Norwegian Aqua and Oceania's Allura.

    我對我們的產品供應和賓客體驗的提升感到非常興奮,我對我們 2025 年首次亮相的遊輪——挪威海遊輪 (Norwegian Aqua) 和大洋郵輪 (Oceania) 的 Allura 的突破性創新感到特別興奮。

  • Our strong execution throughout the year has led to outstanding financial performance with record results on the top line for revenue and net yield, which once again beating guidance when combined with our disciplined cost control initiatives, drove our margins up almost 500 basis points and resulted in record adjusted EBITDA.

    我們全年的強勁執行力帶來了出色的財務業績,收入和淨收益均創下歷史新高,再次超出預期,再加上我們嚴格的成本控制舉措,利潤率上升了近 500 個基點,並實現了創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA。

  • These results demonstrate that the initiatives supporting our charting the course strategy are paying off and position us firmly on track to achieve the 2026 financial and sustainability targets that we introduced this past May. Our charting the course strategy with its vision to have our guests vacation better and experience more guided our transformational achievements in 2024.

    這些結果表明,支持我們制定路線圖策略的舉措正在取得成效,並使我們堅定地走在實現今年 5 月提出的 2026 年財務和永續發展目標的軌道上。我們制定的航向策略旨在讓客人享受更美好的假期並體驗更多精彩,這指導了我們在 2024 年取得的轉型成就。

  • Under the strategic framework built on our four pillars of people, product, growth platform, and performance, we delivered on significant initiatives across our three brands, set ambitious long-term financial targets, and announced a historic fleet expansion program.

    在以人才、產品、成長平台和業績四大支柱為基礎的策略框架下,我們在三大品牌上實施了重大舉措,設定了雄心勃勃的長期財務目標,並宣布了歷史性的車隊擴張計劃。

  • I'll begin my remarks today by walking through key highlights in progress across each of our four pillars and our sustainability strategy, which underpins charting the course. Lastly, I will comment on the demand environment and how our offerings continue to drive record guest satisfaction scores.

    今天,我將首先介紹我們四大支柱和永續發展策略中的進展,這些進展是規劃方向的基礎。最後,我將評論需求環境以及我們的服務如何繼續提高創紀錄的客戶滿意度分數。

  • Or while maintaining disciplined cost management, the balancing of return of investment and return on experience, or ROI and ROX as we like to call it. I'll then turn the call over to Mark, who will provide more detailed commentary on our results and discuss our outlook for 2025.

    或者在保持嚴格的成本管理的同時,平衡投資回報和經驗回報,或者我們喜歡稱之為 ROI 和 ROX。然後,我將把電話轉給馬克,他將對我們的結果提供更詳細的評論,並討論我們對 2025 年的展望。

  • Starting on slide 4, I want to emphasize how our cultural transformation has been a driving force behind our success in 2024. The introduction of our value anchors set the foundation for the behaviors we prioritize as an organization. This shift in mindset has enabled us to achieve remarkable results across all aspects of our business, both shoreside and shipboard.

    從第 4 張投影片開始,我想強調我們的文化轉型如何成為我們在 2024 年成功的動力。我們的價值錨的引入為我們作為一個組織優先考慮的行為奠定了基礎。這種思維轉變使我們在岸上和船上業務的各個方面都取得了顯著的成果。

  • Our team members have embraced these changes with enthusiasm, and the successful invitation of our chart in the course strategy demonstrates that when we align our culture with our business objectives, we can create meaningful change. As I look ahead to 2025, I am confident that the cultural foundation we have built will continue to accelerate our transformational journey.

    我們的團隊成員熱情地接受了這些變化,並且我們的圖表在課程策略中的成功邀請表明,當我們將我們的文化與我們的業務目標相結合時,我們就能創造有意義的變化。展望2025年,我相信我們已經建立的文化基礎將繼續加速我們的轉型之旅。

  • Moving to slide 5, I'm particularly proud of the significant brand enhancements we achieved in 2024. For example, we successfully rolled out a repositioning campaign for our largest brand, Norwegian Cruise Lines Experience More At Sea.

    轉到第 5 張投影片,我對我們在 2024 年取得的重大品牌提升感到特別自豪。例如,我們成功地為我們最大的品牌挪威郵輪公司「海上體驗更多」開展了重新定位活動。

  • This new brand position underscores NCL's commitment to providing guests with more variety, more elevated offering, more of what they love, and more value while vacationing with Norwegian Cruise Line. We also made important investments in our guests' experience.

    這個新的品牌定位凸顯了 NCL 致力於為乘坐挪威郵輪度假的客人提供更多選擇、更高品質的服務、更多他們喜愛的事物和更高的價值。我們也對客人的體驗進行了重要的投資。

  • A prime example is the now completed fleet-wide rollout of Starlink Wi Fi, significantly improving the bandwidth, speed and reliability of onboard internet. We've also expanded our itineraries with additional ports of call across the fleet, as well as enhanced dining and entertainment options, as well as new and exciting onboard activities and shore excursion offerings.

    一個典型的例子是目前已完成全船範圍的 Starlink Wi Fi 部署,顯著提高了船上網路的頻寬、速度和可靠性。我們還擴大了行程,增加了船隊的停靠港口,增強了餐飲和娛樂選擇,並提供全新、令人興奮的船上活動和岸上遊覽服務。

  • During the year, we formed strategic partnerships that enhance our brands, including Norwegian's partnership with the National Hockey League and region's partnership with Aston Martin, Aramco Formula One Team. These initiatives, among a myriad of other enhancements during 2024, underscore our commitment to aligning product offerings with what our guests value.

    在這一年中,我們建立了提升品牌的策略夥伴關係,包括挪威與國家冰球聯盟的合作關係以及該地區與阿斯頓馬丁、阿美一級方程式車隊的合作夥伴關係。這些舉措以及 2024 年期間的許多其他改進措施凸顯了我們致力於使產品供應與客人的價值保持一致的承諾。

  • Flipping to slide 7, I want to highlight our significant achievements in our long-term growth platform pillar during 2024. Historically, measured capacity growth has driven outsized revenue and earnings growth, and with our most comprehensive new build order in our history announced last April, on top of the existing orders in place, we are set up to continue creating real long-term value for both our customers and our other stakeholders.

    翻到第 7 張投影片,我想強調我們在 2024 年長期成長平台支柱方面取得的重大成就。從歷史上看,可衡量的產能成長推動了超額的收入和盈利增長,並且隨著我們去年 4 月宣布的歷史上最全面的新建訂單,在現有訂單的基礎上,我們將繼續為客戶和其他利益相關者創造真正的長期價值。

  • With a total of 13 ships in order. We are set to significantly enhance our offerings and guest experiences further across all three brands, allowing us to significantly leverage our scale and strengthen our commitment to innovation and outstanding guest experiences while continuing to maintain measured and disciplined capacity growth, allowing us to continue to drive outsized revenue and earnings growth.

    總共有13艘船正在訂購中。我們將進一步大幅提升三大品牌的產品和服務品質和賓客體驗,從而充分利用我們的規模優勢,加強對創新和卓越賓客體驗的承諾,同時繼續保持有節制、有紀律的運力增長,從而繼續推動超額的收入和盈利增長。

  • Looking to 2025, we are excited to introduce two state of the art vessels to our world class fleet. Norwegian Aqua, debuting in April 2025, represents an evolution as the inaugural vessel of our next generation Prima plus Class, and will be 10% larger than the first Prima Class ship and have improved fuel efficiency.

    展望 2025 年,我們很高興為我們的世界級船隊引進兩艘最先進的船隻。挪威海天號 (Norwegian Aqua) 將於 2025 年 4 月首次亮相,作為我們下一代 Prima plus Class 的首艘船,它代表著一次進化,將比第一艘 Prima Class 船大 10%,並且燃油效率更高。

  • I can't wait to sail on Aqua in April and experience the groundbreaking attractions, especially the innovative Aqua sly coaster, the first ever hybrid attraction that combines the thrills of a roller coaster with the rush of a waterslide along with other amenities such as a larger pool deck, reimagined dining experiences, new entertainment, including our immersive [Prince tribute] show, revolution, a celebration of Prince.

    我迫不及待地想在四月乘坐 Aqua 遊輪,體驗那些突破性的遊樂設施,尤其是創新的 Aqua 過山車,這是有史以​​來第一個將過山車的刺激與水滑梯的衝擊結合在一起的混合遊樂設施,還有其他設施,如更大的泳池甲板、重新設計的餐飲體驗、新的娛樂活動,包括我們身臨其 Prince 的 [Prince 革命。

  • Enhanced spa services, a three bedroom duplex suite, and brand new activities in our innovative game zone and a glow court which will set new standards for guest entertainment at sea. She's truly breathtaking. Additionally, we are eagerly anticipating the debut of Oceania Cruises Aura in July.

    增強的水療服務、三臥室複式套房以及我們創新遊戲區和發光球場的全新活動,將為海上客人娛樂樹立新標準。她確實令人驚嘆。此外,我們熱切期待大洋郵輪 Aura 號於 7 月首次亮相。

  • This magnificent vessel exemplifies our commitment to upscale cruising, featuring meticulously crafted designer suites, sophisticated lounges, and of course, world-class dining venues that Oceania is known for, including the introduction, the reintroduction of our signature French restaurant Jacques, which is a crowd favorite with our guests.

    這艘宏偉的遊輪體現了我們對高檔遊輪的承諾,擁有精心設計的套房、高檔休息室,當然還有大洋郵輪聞名的世界級餐飲場所,包括我們招牌法國餐廳 Jacques 的引入和重新引入,該餐廳深受我們客人的喜愛。

  • Finally, let me highlight some significant investments in our private island strategy, particularly at Great Stirrup Cay. We are making a critical investment in a new two shift year scheduled to open in late 2025. This strategic enhancement at one of our highest rated ports will be a game changer for our guests experience.

    最後,讓我強調我們在私人島嶼戰略中的一些重大投資,特別是在大馬鐙島。我們正在對計劃於 2025 年底開始的新的兩班制進行重要投資。我們評級最高的港口之一的這項戰略升級將徹底改變我們客人的體驗。

  • With the infrastructure upgrade, we anticipate welcoming over 1 million guests to the island in 2026, a significant Increase from the approximately 400,000 guests that visited in 2024 and supported by a shift to a more Caribbean deployment beginning in late '25.

    隨著基礎設施的升級,我們預計 2026 年該島將迎來超過 100 萬遊客,較 2024 年的約 40 萬遊客有顯著增長,並且得益於從 25 年底開始向加勒比地區部署的轉變。

  • Looking ahead, this positions us well to make targeted investments to further enhance both the guest experience and financial returns from this premier destination. We are committed to establishing the island as a cornerstone of our Caribbean offering, ensuring an exceptional and unforgettable experience for our guests.

    展望未來,這使我們能夠進行有針對性的投資,進一步提升遊客體驗和這個頂級目的地的財務回報。我們致力於將島嶼打造為我們加勒比地區服務的基石,確保為我們的客人提供非凡而難忘的體驗。

  • Let me now turn to our fourth pillar, exceptional performance. As shown on slide 7, our record setting results in 2024 stem from four key factors delivering outstanding vacation experiences, execution from shoreside and shipboard teams, strategic initiative advancements, and disciplined cost management.

    現在讓我來談談我們的第四個支柱,卓越表現。如投影片 7 所示,我們在 2024 年創下的紀錄源自於四個關鍵因素:提供卓越的度假體驗、岸上和船上團隊的執行力、策略性舉措的進步以及嚴格的成本管理。

  • This execution, combined with strong market demand throughout the year, sets us up well to achieve our charting the course target. I am proud to report that we generated record revenue, record net yield growth, and record adjusted dividend 2024, significantly surpassing even our own initial and repeatedly upwardly revised projections throughout the year.

    此次執行,加上全年強勁的市場需求,為我們實現規劃航向的目標奠定了良好的基礎。我很自豪地報告,我們創造了創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的淨收益增長和創紀錄的 2024 年調整後股息,甚至大大超過了我們自己最初以及全年多次上調的預測。

  • While Mark will provide. More detailed commentary shortly, I would like to highlight some of our financial achievements for the year. Net yield increased a record 10% in 2024, surpassing our initial February guidance by 450 basis points.

    而馬克將提供。不久之後我會給出更詳細的評論,我想強調我們今年的一些財務成就。2024 年淨殖利率創紀錄地成長了 10%,比我們 2 月的初始指引高出 450 個基點。

  • This outstanding overperformance reflects strength across all brands and itineraries complemented by strong onboard spend. These results not only validate our strong execution and positioning but also underscore the strong consumer demand for cruise.

    這一出色的表現反映了所有品牌和行程的強勁表現,以及強勁的機上消費。這些結果不僅驗證了我們強大的執行力和定位,也凸顯了消費者對郵輪的強勁需求。

  • While 2024's exceptional performance sets a historic benchmark, we accept further growth to align with our growth algorithm of low to mid digit yield growth. Last February we announced our cost saving targets aiming to maintain flat unit costs through 2024.

    雖然 2024 年的出色表現樹立了歷史標桿,但我們接受進一步的成長,以符合我們低至中位數收益率成長的成長演算法。去年二月,我們宣布了成本節約目標,旨在在 2024 年保持單位成本穩定。

  • Today I'm proud to report that we were able to accomplish this ambitious goal through rigorous cost management and a fundamental shift in our organizational culture while maintaining our excellent guest experience. Our performance is particularly noteworthy as we achieved an approximately 900 basis point spread between our unit costs, including the dry dock impact, and our net yield in 2024.

    今天,我很自豪地報告,我們透過嚴格的成本管理和組織文化的根本轉變,在保持卓越客戶體驗的同時,實現了這個雄心勃勃的目標。我們的表現尤其引人注目,因為我們在 2024 年實現了單位成本(包括乾船塢影響)與淨收益之間約 900 個基點的利差。

  • And these results are just the beginning. The momentum from our cost containment initiatives from increased efficiencies, elimination of waste, and more strategic purchasing has created palpable excitement throughout the organization, and we remain committed to building on this foundation as we move through 2025 and beyond.

    而這些結果只是個開始。我們透過提高效率、消除浪費和更具策略性的採購來控製成本,這項措施的動能已在整個組織內引起了明顯的興奮,我們將繼續致力於在此基礎上繼續前進,邁向 2025 年及以後。

  • But more importantly, we have been able to do this and enhance the guest experiences with all three brands reporting record guest satisfactions for us in 2024. 2024's impressive results demonstrates that our strategic initiatives and algorithm are delivering as planned.

    但更重要的是,我們已經能夠做到這一點,並提升了客人體驗,三個品牌在 2024 年都為我們報告了創紀錄的客人滿意度。 2024 年令人印象深刻的結果表明,我們的策略舉措和演算法正在按計劃進行。

  • Our adjusted operational EBITDA margin expanded by nearly 500 basis points to 35.5%, while our adjusted ROIC improved 320 basis points to just under 11%. Notably, our net leverage ratio decreased 2 full times to 5.3 times, making significant progress on strengthening our balance sheet. These metrics clearly show that we are on track to achieve our 2026 charting the course targets and validates both our strategic direction and execution capabilities.

    我們的調整後營運 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了近 500 個基點,達到 35.5%,而我們的調整後 ROIC 提高了 320 個基點,達到略低於 11%。值得注意的是,我們的淨槓桿率下降了整整2倍至5.3倍,在加強資產負債表方面取得了重大進展。這些指標清楚地表明,我們預計將實現 2026 年規劃目標,並驗證了我們的策略方向和執行能力。

  • Moving to slide 8, sustainability underpins our entire corporate strategy, and our sale and sustain program continues to drive positive environmental and social impact through its five key pillars reducing environmental impact, sailing safely, strengthening communities, empowering people, and operating with integrity.

    轉到投影片 8,永續性是我們整個公司策略的基礎,我們的銷售和維持計畫透過減少環境影響、安全航行、加強社區、增強人民權能和誠信經營的五大關鍵支柱繼續推動積極的環境和社會影響。

  • In 2024, we received notable recognition for our efforts, including the ESG Leader Gold Award and an A rating from MSCI. Operationally, we've made significant progress with nearly half of our fleet now tested with biodiesel blends, charging 60% by the end of this year.

    2024 年,我們的努力獲得了顯著認可,包括 ESG 領導者金獎和 MSCI 的 A 級評級。在營運方面,我們取得了重大進展,目前我們車隊中近一半的車輛都已使用生物柴油混合物進行測試,到今年年底充電率將達到 60%。

  • We're also continuing to invest in shore power capabilities with almost 60% of our fleet equipped to connect when appropriate shoreside infrastructure is available. We were the first to connect in the Port of Seattle at Tier 66 during the 2024 cruise season and partner with PortMiami to launch the first major shore power installation on the US East Coast.

    我們也將繼續投資岸電能力,當合適的岸上基礎設施可用時,我們近 60% 的船隊都配備了岸電連接設施。我們是 2024 年巡航季節中第一個在西雅圖港 66 級停靠的船隻,並與邁阿密港合作在美國東海岸啟動首個大型岸電裝置。

  • Switching to slide 9, I'm pleased to report continued exceptional customer demand across our portfolio through the fourth quarter, which drove net yield up 9%. Throughout the year, our strategic execution in this robust demand environment delivered outstanding results.

    切換到投影片 9,我很高興地報告,第四季度我們整個產品組合的客戶需求持續異常旺盛,推動淨收益率上升了 9%。全年我們在強勁需求環境下的策略執行取得了出色的成果。

  • Looking ahead, the momentum continues into 2025 as we remain, at the optimal book position for the next 12 months with particularly impressive demand for summer sailings in Europe and Alaska. Based on these strong fundamentals and despite headwinds caused by the strong US dollar and timing of drybacks in Q1, we are projecting a 4.5% pricing increase for full year '25, which will drive net yield growth of 3%.

    展望未來,這一勢頭將持續到 2025 年,因為我們仍將保持未來 12 個月的最佳預訂狀態,尤其是歐洲和阿拉斯加夏季航行的需求非常強勁。基於這些強勁的基本面,儘管美元走強和第一季乾餾時間帶來不利因素,我們預計 25 年全年價格將上漲 4.5%,這將推動淨收益率成長 3%。

  • With that, I'll hand the quote over to Mark to go over financial results in more detail. Mark.

    說完這些,我將把報價交給馬克,讓他更詳細地介紹財務結果。標記。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Harry, and good morning, everyone. My commentary today will focus on our fourth quarter 2024 financial results, 2025 guidance and our financial position.

    謝謝你,哈利,大家早安。我今天的評論將集中在我們 2024 年第四季的財務表現、2025 年指引和我們的財務狀況。

  • Unless otherwise noted, 2024 and 2025 net yield and adjusted net cruise cost ex field per capacity day metrics are in a constant currency basis, and comparisons are to the same period in 2024. Let me begin with our fourth quarter results on slide 10.

    除非另有說明,2024 年和 2025 年的淨收益和調整後的淨遊輪成本(不包括場地每容量天數)指標均以固定貨幣計算,並與 2024 年同期進行比較。讓我從第 10 張投影片上的第四季業績開始。

  • Once again, our fourth quarter results came in ahead of guidance, with net yield growing 9%. The 210 basis point outperformance was driven by strength across brands and geographies, as well as strong onboard spend.

    我們的第四季業績再次超出預期,淨收益率成長 9%。210 個基點的優異表現得益於品牌和地理的強勁成長以及強勁的機上支出。

  • Adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel, was slightly above guidance, ending the quarter at $157 mainly driven by increased variable compensation due to our strong performance. Excluding this and the $6 dry dock impact, adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel would have decreased year over year, demonstrating the benefits of our transformation initiatives.

    調整後的淨郵輪成本(不含燃油)略高於預期,本季末為 157 美元,主要原因是我們業績強勁導致浮動薪資增加。除此之外,加上 6 美元的乾船塢影響,調整後的郵輪淨成本(不含燃料)將同比下降,這證明了我們轉型舉措的效益。

  • The combination of healthy top line and strong cost control drove adjusted EBITDA of $468 million exceeding our guidance. Finally, adjusted net income for the quarter was $125 million dollars or adjusted EPS of $0.26, which included an approximately $70 million or $0.15 benefit due to foreign exchange rates.

    健康的營收和強大的成本控制相結合,推動調整後的 EBITDA 達到 4.68 億美元,超出了我們的預期。最後,本季調整後的淨收入為 1.25 億美元,或調整後的每股收益為 0.26 美元,其中包括因外匯匯率而產生的約 7,000 萬美元或 0.15 美元的收益。

  • A reminder that as foreign exchange rates move, we revalue both our debt and advanced ticket sales that are denominated in foreign currencies. While this appears as a benefit in the fourth quarter net income, the impact is a headwind in future periods when these advanced ticket sales are realized ultimately through the P&L.

    提醒一下,隨著外匯匯率的變化,我們會重新評估以外幣計價的債務和預售票銷售額。雖然這在第四季度的淨收入中看起來是一個好處,但當這些預售票銷售最終透過損益表實現時,其影響在未來時期將是一個阻力。

  • Now moving to our record full year 2024 results on slide 11. Let me start with our top line performance. We delivered exceptional results this year, with net yield increasing 10% compared to prior year. This represents the highest net yield growth in our company's history.

    現在轉到第 11 張投影片,了解我們創紀錄的 2024 年全年業績。讓我先從我們的營收表現說起。我們今年取得了出色的業績,淨收益率比上年增長了 10%。這是我們公司歷史上最高的淨收益成長。

  • At the same time, our disciplined cost management delivered strong results, further solidifying the commitments that we made at the beginning of last year. Our adjusted net crews cost one fuel per capacity day only increased $1 to $160 in 2024 when excluding the dry dock impact during the year.

    同時,我們嚴格的成本管理取得了強勁的成果,進一步鞏固了我們去年年初所做的承諾。如果排除當年的乾船塢影響,到 2024 年,我們調整後的淨船員每滿載天數一份燃料的成本僅增加 1 美元,達到 160 美元。

  • This result was achieved despite higher variable compensation due to our strong performance. Excluding this, our adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel would have decreased year to year.

    儘管浮動薪酬較高,但由於我們表現強勁,我們仍然取得了這一成績。除此之外,我們的調整後淨巡航成本(不含燃料)將逐年下降。

  • I am extremely proud of the significant progress we have made to streamline our cost base during the year, demonstrating our focus and commitment to our margin enhancement initiatives while still delivering an exceptional guest experience, and we expect this to continue in 2025 and beyond.

    我對我們今年在精簡成本基礎方面取得的重大進展感到非常自豪,這表明了我們對提高利潤率計劃的關注和承諾,同時仍然提供卓越的客戶體驗,我們預計這種情況將在 2025 年及以後繼續下去。

  • As a result of the strong net yield growth and cost savings initiatives during the year, our adjusted EBITDA came in at just over $2.45 billion while adjusted EPS came in at $1.82 which includes an approximate $0.10 benefit from FX, and our operating cash flow came in at just over $2 billion driving our leverage down 2 full turns to 5.3 times.

    由於本年度強勁的淨收益成長和成本節約舉措,我們的調整後 EBITDA 達到 24.5 億美元,而調整後的 EPS 達到 1.82 美元,其中包括來自外匯的約 0.10 美元收益,我們的經營現金流達到 20 億美元,推動我們的槓桿率下降了整整 2 倍。

  • Our exceptional 2024 performance demonstrates our successful operational execution while capitalizing on strong demand in the market, which positions us well along our path to achieve our charting the course 2026 financial targets. As we look ahead to 2025, we are committed to maintaining this momentum with continued focus and drive.

    我們 2024 年的出色表現證明了我們成功的營運執行力,同時充分利用了強勁的市場需求,這使我們在實現 2026 年財務目標的道路上處於有利地位。展望 2025 年,我們致力於繼續保持這一勢頭,繼續保持專注和動力。

  • Moving to slide 12, let me walk you through our 2025 outlook, starting with the first quarter. In the quarter, we are projecting pricing growth of 3.6% and net yield growth of 0.5%. The underlying drivers of this growth ratear occupancy is expected to be down 3% year over year, coming in at just over 101%.

    轉到第 12 張投影片,讓我從第一季開始向您介紹我們的 2025 年展望。本季度,我們預期價格成長 3.6%,淨收益率成長 0.5%。這一成長率的根本驅動因素是入住率預計將年減 3%,至略高於 101%。

  • As we discussed in our prior earnings call, we have two large ships, Norwegian Breakaway and Norwegian Bliss, that are repositioning from the Caribbean to Europe for dry docks during the quarter. As a result, we have a 71% increase in repositioning capacity days during the quarter.

    正如我們在先前的收益電話會議上所討論的那樣,我們有兩艘大型船隻,挪威逍遙號和挪威極樂號,將在本季度從加勒比海重新定位到歐洲的干船塢。因此,本季我們的重新定位容量天數增加了 71%。

  • These sailings naturally have a lower load factor than sailings in those vessels typical deployment in the Caribbean. To address these challenges in the future, we have established agreements with shipyards in the Caribbean that will allow us to perform dry docks closer to our core operating regions, reducing the need for lengthy repositioning sailings going forward.

    這些航行的載客率自然低於加勒比海地區典型部署的航行。為了應對未來的這些挑戰,我們與加勒比地區的造船廠達成了協議,使我們能夠在更靠近核心運營區域的地方進行乾船塢作業,從而減少未來長時間重新定位航行的需要。

  • Turning to pricing, we face a challenging year over year comparison. In the first quarter of '24, we delivered exceptional net per diem growth of 13%, driving a 16% net yield growth. Despite this challenging comparison, we expect pricing to increase 3.6% in the first quarter of 2025.

    談到定價,我們面臨同比挑戰。2024 年第一季度,我們實現了 13% 的出色淨每日津貼成長,推動了 16% 的淨收益成長。儘管這種比較具有挑戰性,但我們預計 2025 年第一季價格將上漲 3.6%。

  • This growth is particularly notable, given that, along with lower load factors, repositioning sailings typically generate lower prices as compared to typical itineraries. And finally, looking to the last three quarters of 2025, where deployments are more normalized, we expect our net yield to grow at a healthy 3.5%, driven by strong 4.6% pricing growth on the back of 7% capacity growth.

    這種成長尤其值得注意,因為除了載客率較低之外,重新定位航行通常會產生比典型行程更低的價格。最後,展望 2025 年最後三個季度,部署將更加正常化,我們預計淨收益率將以 3.5% 的健康速度成長,這得益於 7% 的產能成長和 4.6% 的強勁定價成長。

  • Turning to adjusted net cruises cost ex fuel, we expect Q1 growth of 3.9%, which includes an $8 impact of increased dry dock capacity days and related costs in the quarter. Excluding this, adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel, is expected to be up 2.1%, which is below inflation and higher than our cost growth for the remainder of the year due to costs associated with the delivery of Norwegian Aqua.

    談到調整後的淨郵輪成本(不含燃料),我們預計第一季將成長 3.9%,其中包括本季乾船塢容量天數增加和相關成本的 8 美元影響。除此之外,調整後的淨郵輪成本(不含燃料)預計將上漲 2.1%,低於通貨膨脹率,但高於今年剩餘時間的成本增長,原因是與交付挪威水上郵輪相關的成本。

  • Our unit cost growth will normalize going forward as we anticipate no meaningful dry dock impacts on our full year adjusted net cruise cost comparisons. We expect adjusted EBITDA to come in at $435 million and adjusted EPS at $0.08. Looking now at the full year, net yield growth is expected to be approximately 3%.

    由於我們預期乾船塢事件不會對全年調整後的淨郵輪成本比較產生重大影響,因此我們的單位成本成長將會正常化。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將達到 4.35 億美元,調整後的 EPS 將達到 0.08 美元。現在來看全年,淨收益率成長約為3%。

  • This growth is mainly driven by strong performance from our largest brand with more modest growth rates at our other brands that are absorbing outsized capacity growth. The recent appointment of our Chief Luxury Officer positions us well to enhance yields and margins across these brands going forward.

    這一成長主要得益於我們最大品牌的強勁表現,而其他品牌的成長率則較為溫和,因為吸收了過大的產能成長。我們最近任命的首席奢侈品長使我們能夠在未來提高這些品牌的收益率和利潤率。

  • Driving more into the cadence of net yield throughout the year, we expect a temporary moderation and growth in the first quarter due to factors that I previously mentioned.

    隨著全年淨收益率節奏的進一步提升,我們預計由於我之前提到的因素,第一季將出現暫時的放緩和成長。

  • The subsequent three quarters, which better reflect our core business operations, are projected to grow at approximately 3.5%, primarily driven by strong net per diem growth of approximately 4.6%, which is in line with our long-term algorithm.

    隨後的三個季度將更能反映我們的核心業務營運情況,預計將成長約 3.5%,主要受約 4.6% 的強勁淨每日津貼成長推動,這符合我們的長期演算法。

  • Turning to unit cost, building on our strong cost control performance in 2024, we intend to continue this momentum into 2025 and are targeting our adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel to grow by 1.25%, well below anticipated inflation rates.

    談到單位成本,基於我們在 2024 年強大的成本控制業績,我們打算將這一勢頭延續到 2025 年,併計劃將調整後的淨郵輪成本(不含燃料)增長 1.25%,遠低於預期的通貨膨脹率。

  • This low unit cost growth comes after a year of only 1% cost growth and is a testament to our culture change and disciplined execution. This success is driven by the transformation office's ongoing strategic initiatives, which continue to identify and implement sustainable efficiencies across our organization, but that do not impact the guest experience.

    這一較低的單位成本增長是在前一年成本僅增長 1% 之後出現的,這證明了我們的文化變革和嚴格的執行力。這項成功得益於轉型辦公室正在進行的策略性舉措,這些舉措繼續在整個組織內確定和實施可持續的效率,但不會影響客戶體驗。

  • These efforts are not just short-term fixes. They represent structural changes that will generate value for years to come. Now I want to give you some detail on the timing of cost throughout the year. As I previously mentioned, the first quarter is the only period where we face year by year comparison impacts from dry docks and a related decline in capacity days, as well as the delivery of Aqua.

    這些努力不僅僅是短期的解決方案。它們代表著未來幾年將產生價值的結構性變化。現在我想向大家詳細介紹一下全年成本的時間安排。正如我之前提到的,第一季是我們面臨乾船塢和相關容量天數下降以及 Aqua 交付逐年影響的唯一時期。

  • For the remainder of 2025, we expect to have essentially flat unit costs reflecting our continued focus on efficiency and strong cost discipline. The spread between our net yield and unit costs for the last three quarters of the year will reach approximately 300 basis points.

    在 2025 年剩餘時間內,我們預計單位成本將基本持平,這反映出我們對效率和嚴格成本控制的持續關注。今年最後三個季度,我們的淨收益率與單位成本之間的差距將達到約300個基點。

  • These quarters better represent our core business, and this performance significantly exceeds our long-term algorithm while demonstrating our commitment to our Charting the Cource targets. As a result of the cost savings initiatives and strong net yield growth, we are expecting full year adjusted EBITDA of $2.72 billion which is net of an approximately $70 million headwind from both FX and fuel.

    這些季度更好地代表了我們的核心業務,而這種表現大大超出了我們的長期演算法,同時也表明了我們對「繪製路線圖」目標的承諾。由於成本節約措施和強勁的淨收益成長,我們預計全年調整後的 EBITDA 為 27.2 億美元,扣除外匯和燃料帶來的約 7,000 萬美元的不利因素。

  • Adjusted EPS for the year is expected to be $2.05 setting us up well to achieve our 2026 charting the course targets. Similar to adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS also includes an approximately $70 million or $0.15 headwind from both FX and fuel.

    預計今年調整後的每股盈餘為 2.05 美元,為我們實現 2026 年規劃目標奠定了良好基礎。與調整後的 EBITDA 類似,調整後的 EPS 也包括來自外匯和燃料的約 7,000 萬美元或 0.15 美元的逆風。

  • Moving on to our margins on slide 13, the combination of a more efficient cost structure and strong top-line growth drove significant margin enhancements in 2024, with adjusted operational even of margins improving almost 500 basis points to 35.5%.

    再來看看第 13 張投影片上的利潤率,更有效率的成本結構和強勁的營收成長相結合,推動了 2024 年利潤率的大幅提升,調整後的營運利潤率提高了近 500 個基點,達到 35.5%。

  • For 2025, we expect our margins will continue to strengthen, reaching approximately 37%. These improvements position us well to achieve our 2026 charting the course margin target of approximately 39%. On slide 14, I discussed our balance sheet and debt maturity profile.

    到 2025 年,我們預計利潤率將持續提高,達到約 37%。這些改進使我們有條件實現 2026 年約 39% 的航線利潤率目標。在第 14 張投影片上,我討論了我們的資產負債表和債務到期狀況。

  • In 2024, we made important strides in liability management and strengthening the balance sheet. We began in March refinancing our backstop commitment from secured to unsecured and repaid $250 million of 9.75% senior secure notes to 2028, our highest rate debt at the time.

    2024年,我們在負債管理和強化資產負債表方面取得了重要進展。我們從 3 月開始將我們的擔保承諾從有擔保再融資為無擔保,並在 2028 年之前償還了 2.5 億美元的 9.75% 優先擔保票據,這是我們當時利率最高的債務。

  • We continued in September with the refinancing of $315 million of notes due December 2024 with 6.25% unsecured notes due 2030, with the remaining balance of the $250 million paid at maturity. More recently, in January of this year, we successfully issued $1.8 billion of 6.75% quarter unsecured notes through 2032, which were used to replace $600 million of secured debt with unsecured debt and $1.2 billion to refinance a portion of our [5 and 7/8] notes due 2026.

    9 月份,我們繼續對 2024 年 12 月到期的 3.15 億美元票據進行再融資,其中包括 2030 年到期的 6.25% 無擔保票據,剩餘的 2.5 億美元將在到期時支付。最近,在今年 1 月,我們成功發行了價值 18 億美元的 6.75% 季度無擔保票據,有效期至 2032 年,用於將 6 億美元的擔保債務替換為無擔保債務,並用於為 2026 年到期的部分 [5 和 7/8] 票據進行再融資。

  • We also upsized our revolving credit facility to $1.7 billion and extended its tenure with improved terms. Through these strategic transactions, we have optimized our collateral utilization, further strengthening our capital structure while supporting our growth trajectory.

    我們也將循環信貸額度提高至 17 億美元,並延長其期限並改善其條件。透過這些策略交易,我們優化了抵押品利用率,進一步加強了資本結構,同時支持了我們的成長軌跡。

  • The rating agencies are also taking notice of our progress, with both S&P's and Moody's recently upgrading our credit ratings with a positive outlook. Moving to leverage on slide 15, the company has been delivering on its track record of net leverage reduction. During 2024, we reduced our net leverage to full terms, ending the year at 5.3 times.

    評級機構也注意到了我們的進展,標準普爾和穆迪最近都以樂觀的前景提高了我們的信用評級。轉到幻燈片 15 上的槓桿率,該公司一直在履行其淨槓桿率降低的記錄。2024 年,我們將淨槓桿率降至最高水平,年底為 5.3 倍。

  • We are confident we can continue making meaningful progress on this front going forward, driven by our organic cash generation and scheduled amortization payments. Looking to 2025, we expect to bring down net leverage to approximately 5 times or better.

    我們有信心,在有機現金產生和預定攤銷支付的推動下,我們可以繼續在這方面取得有意義的進展。展望2025年,我們預期淨槓桿率將降至約5倍或更高。

  • This comes after net leverage temporarily increases to 5.7 times in the first quarter due to the delivery of Aqua in March. Ending the year at approximately 5 times or better demonstrates the company remains on track to achieve our 2026 target of the mid-4s, and I am confident that our continued focus on deleveraging will further strengthen our balance sheet and create value for our shareholders in the many years to come.

    此前,由於 3 月 Aqua 的交付,第一季淨槓桿率暫時上升至 5.7 倍。今年年底的本益比約為 5 倍或更高,表明公司仍有望實現 2026 年 4 倍左右的目標,我相信,我們繼續專注於去槓桿將進一步加強我們的資產負債表,並在未來許多年為我們的股東創造價值。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to Harry for closing remarks.

    好了,現在請 Harry 做最後發言。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Mark. Looking at slide 16, I want to take a moment to once again recognize the significant progress that we made during 2024 on our key charting the course financial targets. Adjusted operational EBITDA margin improved approximately 500 basis points.

    謝謝你,馬克。看第 16 張投影片,我想花點時間再次回顧我們在 2024 年關鍵的財務目標規劃方面取得的重大進展。調整後的營業 EBITDA 利潤率提高了約 500 個基點。

  • Adjusted EPS grew by 161% to $1.82. Net leverage declined two full terms, and our adjusted ROIC ended up 320 basis points at just about 11%. These exceptional results were made possible through the dedication of over 40,000 employees who worked tirelessly to provide our guests with memorable vacations at great value.

    調整後每股收益成長 161% 至 1.82 美元。淨槓桿率下降了整整兩個學期,我們的調整後 ROIC 最終上升了 320 個基點,約 11%。這些卓越的成績歸功於超過 40,000 名員工的辛勤付出,他們孜孜不倦地工作,為我們的客人提供難忘且超值的假期。

  • It is truly an honor to work side by side with this outstanding team and witness what we can accomplish together. At our investor day back in May, we set our 2026 targets based on a straightforward executable plan backed by an experienced management team, outstanding staff, a clear [strategy and] a performance driven culture designed to drive meaningful results and shareholder value and an extraordinary guest experience.

    能夠與這個優秀的團隊並肩工作並見證我們共同的成就,我感到非常榮幸。在五月的投資者日上,我們根據一個簡單易行的計劃設定了 2026 年的目標,該計劃由經驗豐富的管理團隊、優秀的員工、明確的[戰略和]以績效為導向的文化提供支持,旨在推動有意義的成果和股東價值以及非凡的客戶體驗。

  • Given our strong progress towards these targets in 2024 and our expected continued momentum in 2025, I am more confident than ever that our strategy is working and our execution is delivering results. I look forward to what 2025 will bring as we continue charting our course towards our bright future.

    鑑於我們在 2024 年實現這些目標方面取得了巨大進展,並且預計 2025 年將繼續保持這一勢頭,我比以往任何時候都更加相信我們的策略正在發揮作用,我們的執行正在取得成果。我期待著 2025 年將會帶來什麼,我們將繼續規劃邁向光明未來的道路。

  • With that, we will now move on to the question and answer portion of the call, and I will hand the line back to our operator.

    這樣,我們現在將進入通話的問答部分,然後我將把線路交還給我們的接線員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的莉齊‧多夫 (Lizzie Dove)。

  • Lizzie Dove - Analyst

    Lizzie Dove - Analyst

  • Hi there, thanks for taking the question. My first question is on bookings color. You did give some color, which I appreciated, but wondering if you could go a bit deeper and just talk about the different brands you made a comment about the biggest brand performing the best and some of the luxury brands may be lagging a little bit with the capacity growth.

    您好,感謝您提出這個問題。我的第一個問題是關於預訂顏色。您確實給出了一些細節,我很感激,但我想知道您是否可以更深入地談談不同的品牌,您評論說最大的品牌表現最好,而一些奢侈品牌在產能增長方面可能有點滯後。

  • Curious just if you can expand on that. And then anything about different geographies and cadence of 2Q through 4Q.

    只是好奇你是否可以進一步闡述這一點。然後是關於不同地理位置以及第二季度到第四季度的節奏的任何資訊。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Oh, good morning, Lizzie, and thank you for the question. Listen, I think we're reasonably happy with our booking pace that we've been seeing both in Q4 and for the first two months of the year. I think we referenced in our prepared remarks that we're particularly happy with Europe and Alaska, which has really have outperformed for us for the summer period for this year.

    哦,早安,莉齊,謝謝你的提問。聽著,我認為我們對第四季和今年前兩個月的預訂速度感到相當滿意。我想我們在準備好的發言中提到過,我們對歐洲和阿拉斯加特別滿意,今年夏季這兩個市場的表現確實超出了我們的預期。

  • I think by brand, again, in our prepared remarks, we referenced the fact that that our luxury brands are just a little slower than we would have liked and in exchange the NCL brand is performing a little bit better, but nothing major. It's not a huge shift from one to another. I think bookings are where we need them to be, and I'll say steady as she goes.

    我認為,就品牌而言,在我們準備好的評論中,我們提到了這樣一個事實:我們的奢侈品牌比我們希望的要慢一點,而 NCL 品牌的表現則要好一點,但沒有什麼重大變化。從一個轉變到另一個轉變並不是巨大的。我認為預訂量是我們需要的,而且我會說她會穩步前進。

  • Lizzie Dove - Analyst

    Lizzie Dove - Analyst

  • Perfect. That's helpful. And then obviously, the 2024 results ended up being so much better than you thought initially and a much bigger delta between yield growth and cost growth than you kind of started out thinking.

    完美的。這很有幫助。顯然,2024 年的結果比你最初想像的要好得多,而且收益成長和成本成長之間的差距比你最初想像的要大得多。

  • I'm curious like how much of that is a pull forward versus just actual kind of overachievement of those cost savings? Or putting it a different way, you've talked about the $300 million in the past, between back then and 2026, like is there kind of more upside to that? Or how should we kind of be thinking about that?

    我很好奇,其中有多少是提前實現的,有多少是實際超額完成的成本節約?或者換句話說,您過去曾談到從那時到 2026 年的 3 億美元,那麼這是否還有更多的上升空間?或者我們該如何思考這個問題?

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So I'll give some broad color, and then I'll turn it over to Mark for some more specifics on this question. Yes, the cost savings, well, you have so many questions, I guess, yes, (inaudible) good answer. Let me be a little bit more specific. The cost savings have come in a little bit quicker than we initially expected, which is obviously a good thing. We want to start out with a reasonable and measured plan.

    因此我將給出一些廣泛的解釋,然後我將把它交給馬克來了解有關這個問題的更多細節。是的,節省成本,嗯,你有很多問題,我想,是的,(聽不清楚)很好的答案。讓我更具體一點。成本節省的速度比我們最初預期的要快一些,這顯然是一件好事。我們希望從一個合理且有分寸的計劃開始。

  • And as the year progresses, I give kudos to the entire management and staff for taking this cultural change seriously as I knew they would and overachieving our initial expectations. Mark, I'll let you comment on the pull forward and what that means for '[28] and --

    隨著時間的推移,我對全體管理層和員工表示敬意,因為他們認真對待這一文化變革,並且超出了我們最初的預期。馬克,我讓你評論一下這個向前拉動以及這對“[28] 和--

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Lizzie, thanks for the question. Look, we've been pretty consistent. We targeted a $300 million efficiency program over three years. We did accelerate or overachieve on some of that in year one. That said, we continue to harvest and we continue to see opportunities in both '25 and '26.

    莉齊,謝謝你的提問。瞧,我們一直都非常一致。我們的目標是在三年內投入 3 億美元實施一項效率計畫。我們在第一年確實加速或超額完成了一些任務。話雖如此,我們仍在繼續收穫,並且我們將繼續看到 25 年和 26 年的機會。

  • And I think that's really demonstrated in the fact that when you look at our net cruise cost guidance ex fuel, we're guiding 1.25 points. So to put that in context, if you think about where inflation is generally around 3% to 4%, we are actually guiding a couple of points below that.

    我認為這確實體現在當您查看我們的淨巡航成本指引(不含燃料)時,我們指導的是 1.25 點。因此,從具體情況來看,如果你考慮到通貨膨脹率一般在 3% 到 4% 左右,那麼我們實際上會引導低於這個水平的幾個點。

  • So we feel good about where we are. As I say every quarter, we gain more and more confidence around that. And everything we're doing is really streamlining and gaining more efficiencies, all on the premise without impacting the guest experience.

    因此我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。正如我每個季度所說的那樣,我們對此越來越有信心。我們所做的一切都是為了精簡流程、提高效率,所有這些都是在不影響客人體驗的情況下進行的。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I can't emphasize that point enough. I don't usually like to have two comments on one question. I think the point that Mark made about guest experience is the extraordinary importance. I referenced in my prepared remarks that we have record guest satisfaction scores at each of our three brands.

    我再怎麼強調這一點也不為過。我通常不喜歡對一個問題提出兩則評論。我認為馬克提出的關於客人體驗的觀點非常重要。我在準備好的發言中提到,我們的三個品牌都創下了顧客滿意度分數的新高。

  • And that's something that we diligently follow on a weekly voyage by voyage basis to make sure we stay on top of this. This starts with guests. It doesn't start with financials. This starts with guests. And if we can get the product right and happy guests, the financials follow, which is our 2024 results are testament to.

    我們在每週的航行中都認真跟踪這一情況,以確保我們始終處於領先地位。這要從客人說起。這並不是從財務開始的。這要從客人說起。如果我們能夠提供優質的產品並讓客人滿意,那麼財務狀況就會隨之而來,這就是我們 2024 年業績的證明。

  • Lizzie Dove - Analyst

    Lizzie Dove - Analyst

  • Awesome thank you.

    太棒了謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandt Montour, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的布蘭特‧蒙圖爾 (Brandt Montour)。

  • Brandt Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Montour - Analyst

  • Good morning everybody. Thanks for taking my question. You guys gave some helpful commentary on pricing the first quarter versus the rest of the year at [3.6] and [4.6] respectively, which are healthy rates. But I'm curious why you guys are penciling an occupancy loss ex the first quarter looks like 1 point in your guide, [105] versus [104] for 2Q through 4Q for 2025. Just curious if there's a mix issue or if that's an opportunity for you guys?

    大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。你們對第一季和今年剩餘時間的定價給了一些有益的評論,分別為 [3.6] 和 [4.6],這是健康的利率。但我很好奇,為什麼你們要預測入住率下降,例如第一季的入住率下降在你們的指南中是 1 點,[105],而 2025 年第二季至第四季的入住率下降為 [104]。只是好奇是否存在混合問題或這對你們來說是否是一個機會?

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would say, in Q1, we spoke to the issues with dry dock and repositioning cruises. So I hope that's self-explanatory what happened with the occupancy rates in that. Obviously, on the repositioning cruises to and from the dry dock, transatlantic cruises in January and February tend not to fill with lots of children, as you may imagine, which impacts those rates and the surrounding cruises as well.

    我想說,在第一季度,我們討論了乾船塢和重新定位遊輪的問題。所以我希望這能不言而喻地解釋入住率發生的變化。顯然,在往返乾船塢的重新定位遊輪上,一月和二月的跨大西洋遊輪往往不會載滿很多兒童,正如您可能想像的那樣,這會影響這些遊輪的票價以及週邊的遊輪票價。

  • But for the rest of the quarter, there is a bit of a mix issue, although on a long-term basis, as we discussed, we're transitioning more to have Caribbean basis, for example, in GSE, we talked about shifting from, I think it was 400,000 guests to 1 million guests from prior year to '26.

    但對於本季度的剩餘時間,存在一些混合問題,儘管從長遠來看,正如我們所討論的,我們正在向加勒比地區的基礎轉型,例如在 GSE,我們談到了從 400,000 名客人轉變為 100 萬名客人,從上一年到 26 年。

  • And '25, there's actually a slight shift the other way where our Asia, Africa and Pacific itineraries, I think we include this as one of slides in our presentation is actually up 20% from 9% to 11% of our total deployment.

    而'25,實際上我們的亞洲、非洲和太平洋行程有一個輕微的變化,我想我們在演示文稿的一張幻燈片中提到了這一點,實際上占我們總部署的比例從 9% 上升到了 11%,增長了 20%。

  • And we've also employed a larger ship on our longer Alaska runs, the Norwegian Joy is now doing our 9, 10 night Alaska runs, which also has a bit less of a family mix because they're longer in length. So I think those two changes in mix account for the entirety of the small change in occupancy that you see.

    我們在阿拉斯加的長途航行中也使用了更大的船,目前「挪威喜悅號」正在執行為期 9 至 10 晚的阿拉斯加航線,由於航程較長,因此家庭出遊的人數較少。所以我認為這兩個組合變化解釋了您所看到的入住率微小變化的全部原因。

  • Brandt Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Montour - Analyst

  • That's super helpful. And then just a follow-up, Harry, it was good to hear that you guys are seeing strong demand, particularly from US into Europe. Maybe you could just double-click on that. I mean obviously, is some of that easier comps?

    這非常有幫助。然後只是後續問題,哈利,很高興聽到你們看到了強勁的需求,特別是從美國到歐洲的需求。也許您只需雙擊它即可。我的意思是,顯然其中一些是比較簡單的嗎?

  • Obviously last year, you had there were some geopolitical events in late '23 that effected '24. But also just pre post-election, if you're seeing, if you saw any sort of change in booking behaviour? And then the third part of this multiparter, any sort of more recent hesitation or concerns around the geopolitical media cycle filtering into bookings?

    顯然,去年 23 年底發生的一些地緣政治事件影響了 24 年。但是,在選舉前後,您是否看到預訂行為有任何變化?那麼,在這個多部分文章的第三部分中,最近對於地緣政治媒體週期影響預訂有任何猶豫或擔憂嗎?

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So yes, three part follow-up question there. Let me cover them all. Yes, I wouldn't say that we had particularly soft comps for last year. I think last year, where we ended up with a 10% yield growth reflected good performance across all geographies.

    是的,這裡有三部分後續問題。讓我來一一介紹它們。是的,我不會說我們去年的業績特別疲軟。我認為,去年我們的收益率成長了 10%,這反映了所有地區的良好表現。

  • I don't think you can get to a 10% yield growth if there's really softness in any itinerary. So the fact that Europe is doing well for this year, I think, is just a reflection of a great customer product, good marketing, good acceptance for the experiences that we offer, which we're absolutely happy to see.

    我認為,如果任何行程真的很寬鬆,你就不可能達到 10% 的收益成長。因此,我認為,歐洲今年表現良好只是因為我們擁有優質的客戶產品、良好的行銷以及我們所提供體驗的良好接受度,對此我們感到非常高興。

  • In terms of behavior pre and post-election, the week of election was a challenging week as it is every four years, but that's one out of 200 weeks, so we don't necessarily worry about that. But I think since then, we've seen normal patterns. Nothing really extraordinary positive or negative since the election has occurred. I have answered the questions, sorry, move on.

    就選舉前後的行為而言,選舉周是每四年一次的充滿挑戰的一周,但這是 200 周中的一周,所以我們不一定擔心這一點。但我認為從那時起,我們就看到了正常的模式。自選舉以來,並沒有發生什麼特別積極或消極的事情。我已經回答了問題,抱歉,請繼續。

  • Brandt Montour - Analyst

    Brandt Montour - Analyst

  • Perfect thanks.

    非常感謝。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I've answered the question sorry, move on.

    是的,我已經回答了這個問題,抱歉,請繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Wieczynski, Stifel.

    史蒂費爾公司的史蒂夫‧維辛斯基 (Steve Wieczynski)。

  • Steven Wieczynski - Analyst

    Steven Wieczynski - Analyst

  • Hey guys, good morning. Congratulations on a strong fourth quarter. So Harry or Mark, as we think about the guidance for the year, if we think about the 3.5% yield growth that you're kind of expecting there in the second quarter through the fourth quarter. That's probably actually a little stronger than we were kind of looking for.

    大家好,早安。恭喜您第四季業績強勁。因此,哈利或馬克,當我們考慮今年的指導時,如果我們考慮到您預計第二季度到第四季度的 3.5% 的收益率增長。這可能實際上比我們期望的要強一些。

  • And look, you gave a lot of commentary around demand for Alaska, Europe, so that's probably part of that. But just maybe help us understand maybe how you're thinking about the onboard side of things as we think about kind of the middle to the latter part of the year.

    而且你看,你對阿拉斯加、歐洲的需求發表了很多評論,所以這可能是其中的一部分。但也許可以幫助我們了解,當我們考慮今年中後期的情況時,您對船上方面的事情有何看法。

  • It just seems like I guess what I'm trying to get here is, is there a potential upside to that 3.5% number based on maybe a little bit higher load factors plus on board?

    我只是想說,我在這裡想要知道的是,如果載客率和機上乘客人數稍微高一點,那麼 3.5% 這個數字是否還有上升空間?

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The guidance we provided are numbers that we feel confident with that we can deliver. I wouldn't necessarily imply that there's upside that we haven't yet factored in. it's the number that we believe in. We think a 3.5% yield growth on a 0.5% cost growth in the back three quarters of the year represents a very strong performance, especially coming off of the extraordinary performance last year.

    我們提供的指導是我們相信能夠實現的數字。我並不一定暗示我們還沒考慮到好處。這是我們相信的數字。我們認為,今年後三個季度,收益率成長 3.5%,成本成長 0.5%,這是一個非常強勁的表現,尤其是在去年業績表現優異的基礎上。

  • I'm not here to give new guidance 10 minutes after we just gave original guidance. In terms of onboard spend, our philosophy here is to have a databased department which takes a look at what guests want and provide guests more of what they want and we provide guests more of what they want.

    我不會在我們剛剛給出原始指導 10 分鐘後再在這裡給出新的指導。在船上消費方面,我們的理念是建立一個資料庫部門,了解客人的需求,並為客人提供更多他們想要的東西,我們也為客人提供更多他們想要的東西。

  • They gladly pay us for it. So it's not, I just want to be clear and this sort of goes with the first comment I made, this is not a finance driven organization. This is a customer-driven organization. And to the extent that we can deliver extraordinary products, whether it's on the crew side or in the case of your question, the onboard side, we can generate higher revenues.

    他們很樂意付錢給我們。所以不是,我只是想明確一點,這與我做的第一條評論一致,這不是一個受財務驅動的組織。這是一個以客戶為導向的組織。只要我們能夠提供卓越的產品,無論是在機組人員方面,還是在您所問的船上方面,我們都可以創造更高的收入。

  • We have an entire team that all they do day in and day out is take a look at the 13 different verticals we have of onboard revenue and make sure that we're delivering them to our guests in an exceptional way and then obviously, pricing it in a way that reflects the value.

    我們擁有一支完整的團隊,他們日復一日地專注於我們 13 個不同的船上收入垂直領域,確保我們以獨特的方式將這些收入提供給我們的客人,然後顯然以反映價值的方式定價。

  • Steven Wieczynski - Analyst

    Steven Wieczynski - Analyst

  • Okay. And then second question, maybe a bigger picture question around your capacity growth. And Harry, obviously, you have a decent amount of capacity coming online over the next, let's call it, 5 to 10 years being very evenly spread out.

    好的。第二個問題可能是關於產能成長的一個更大的問題。哈利,顯然,在接下來的 5 到 10 年內,你將有相當數量的產能上線,分佈非常均勻。

  • But maybe wondering how you're thinking about the retirement side of things given. If I kind of look at your fleet, you've got a handful of ships that are now in, let's call it, that 25 to 30 years age range. So is that something you guys are starting to contemplate?

    但也許想知道您是如何考慮退休方面的事情的。如果我看一下你們的船隊,你們有幾艘船的船齡都在 25 至 30 年之間。那麼這是你們開始考慮的事情嗎?

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Obviously, we always look at what the market is out there. But I'll just point out that our oldest ships in our fleet are from '98 and '99. So none of them have reached yet 30 years. And we believe our ships can even perhaps get to 35 years or beyond.

    是的。顯然,我們總是關注外面的市場狀況。但我只想指出,我們船隊中最古老的船隻是 1998 年和 1999 年建造的。所以他們都沒有活到30歲。我們相信我們的船舶甚至可以使用 35 年甚至更長。

  • So there still is a little bit of room there, if you will, before we have to be more aggressively considering ship retirements. We have also been very aggressive. One of the blessings of coming on after the previous CEO, which was a huge believer in investing in our product is our ships are extraordinarily well maintained.

    因此,在我們更積極地考慮船舶退役之前,如果你願意的話,那裡還有一點空間。我們也一直非常積極。在前任執行長非常相信投資我們的產品之後,我們的幸運之一就是我們的船舶保養得非常好。

  • I to visit them on a regular basis, and I'm very pleased with even the older ships in our fleet, how well they have stood up. So I don't think that there's anything imminent coming. But of course, we always keep our eye open. I think Mark wants to add to my comments.

    我定期去拜訪它們,我對我們艦隊中即使是較老的船隻也保持得如此完好感到非常滿意。所以我不認為會有什麼即將發生的事情。但當然,我們始終保持警戒。我想馬克想補充我的評論。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. And I think, Steve, around that question is, I think when you look at our prepared remarks and some of the activities that just occurred in January, around our revolver and related collateral, structurally, that puts us in a position where we can actually be in a position down the road should we desire to start disposing of vessels.

    是的。史蒂夫,我認為,圍繞這個問題,當你看到我們準備好的發言稿和一月份剛剛發生的一些活動時,圍繞我們的循環手槍和相關抵押品,從結構上講,這讓我們處於這樣一種境地:如果我們想要開始處置船隻,我們實際上可以處於這樣的境地。

  • Again, not indicating we're on that path. But it now allows us to explore that and set some of our strategy around that. So I think we have much more flexibility now than we had before, but it sets us well up into the future for the best outcome.

    再次強調,這並不表示我們正走在這條道路上。但現在我們可以探索這一點,並圍繞這一點制定一些策略。因此我認為我們現在比以前擁有更大的靈活性,而且它為我們未來取得最佳結果做好了準備。

  • Steven Wieczynski - Analyst

    Steven Wieczynski - Analyst

  • Okay. Yes. And Mark, that's what I was trying to figure out. Thanks for the color guys appreciate it.

    好的。是的。馬克,這正是我想要弄清楚的。謝謝大家對顏色的欣賞。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Of course, thank you.

    當然,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Daniel Politzer, Wells Fargo.

    丹尼爾‧波利策,富國銀行。

  • Daniel Politzer - Analyst

    Daniel Politzer - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to just follow up on Europe and maybe ask the question in a bit of a different way. How would you classify demand there versus Caribbean given seemingly different supply demand dynamics in those markets. I mean, can you maybe talk about the impact of the strong FX and strong dollar and if that's also providing some ongoing tailwind as it relates to demand?

    嘿,大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想繼續關注歐洲的情況,也許可以用稍微不同的方式來提出這個問題。鑑於這兩個市場供需動態看似不同,您如何對那裡的需求和加勒比地區的需求進行分類?我的意思是,您能否談談強勢外匯和強勢美元的影響,以及這是否也為需求提供了一些持續的順風?

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We've been seeing the strong demand in Europe for the entire booking season, even going back to last summer when summer '25 would have started booking. So I don't think it's particularly related to the strong US dollar. I think, it just is reflective of, as I mentioned in one of the previous questions, the great product offering that we have and the good marketing messaging that we get out to our guests.

    我們看到整個預訂季節歐洲的需求都很強勁,甚至可以追溯到去年夏天,當時 2025 年夏季就開始預訂了。所以我認為這與強勢美元沒有特別的關係。我認為,正如我在之前的問題中提到的那樣,它反映了我們提供的優質產品以及我們向客人傳達的良好行銷訊息。

  • So I haven't really seen that much change as the US dollar has strengthened since the election. Versus Caribbean. Listen, obviously, we've called out Europe and Alaska, so we're really, really happy. But I'll just point out that at least during the summer, Caribbean is a very small part of our deployment.

    因此,我並沒有看到美元自大選以來走強的太大變化。對加勒比海地區。聽著,顯然我們已經呼叫了歐洲和阿拉斯加,所以我們真的非常高興。但我只想指出,至少在夏季,加勒比地區只是我們部署的一小部分。

  • It gets down to about 9% in Q3. So the fact that we didn't necessarily point out Caribbean doesn't necessarily reflect a weakness. It just, I point to Alaska and Europe because on a combined basis, they're well over half of our deployment in the summer, and that's what we're focused on and particularly happy with.

    第三季這一比例下降至約 9%。因此,我們並未指出加勒比地區的問題並不一定反映出其弱點。我只是指出阿拉斯加和歐洲,因為從總體上看,它們占我們夏季部署的一半以上,而這正是我們關注的重點,並且對此特別滿意。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And Dan, as you think about that with the comments around the dollar, most of the vast majority of our guests are spending in US dollars, they're purchasing their cruise ticket in US dollars and their excursions.

    丹,正如您所想到的有關美元的評論,我們的絕大多數客人都是用美元消費的,他們用美元購買遊輪票和短途旅行。

  • So yes, while there could be some minor benefit around a stronger dollar, I don't think it's a huge driver one way or the other. Other than the fact, I would be remiss if I didn't remind the group today that we do see an impact from that in our overall earnings per share as a result of the stronger dollar. But that said, I think we're feeling good with those markets.

    所以是的,雖然美元走強可能會帶來一些小的好處,但我認為它不會成為一個巨大的驅動力。除此之外,如果我今天不提醒大家,美元走強確實對我們的整體每股盈餘產生了影響,那我就是失職了。但話雖如此,我認為我們對這些市場感覺良好。

  • Daniel Politzer - Analyst

    Daniel Politzer - Analyst

  • Got it. That that makes sense. And then, look, there's obviously been some headlines lately, from the current administration on taxation of the cruise industry.

    知道了。這是有道理的。然後,你看,最近顯然有一些關於現任政府對郵輪業徵稅的頭條新聞。

  • I don't know to what extent you could comment, but if there's anything you could kind of opine on whether it relates to your exposure level of operating income that you, could be risked and maybe talk us through some of the puts and takes or even a history lesson on this area of the tax code.

    我不知道您能評論到什麼程度,但如果有什麼意見的話,您可以就它是否與您的營業收入風險敞口水平有關,以及您是否可能面臨風險,或許可以向我們講解一下稅法這一領域的一些利弊,甚至是歷史課。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll stay the history lesson, but I'm happy to think about the current environment. It's funny we had an over under how many questions into the earnings call with this tax thing come up for the first cruise line that has reported since the Commerce Secretary comments a little while back. Listen, this thing with [AA3] is really, really complicated and would obviously require legislative action to change.

    我會繼續學習歷史,但我很樂意考當前的環境。有趣的是,對於自商務部長不久前發表評論以來第一家公佈業績的郵輪公司來說,我們在收益電話會議上對稅收問題提出了多少問題卻多於預期。聽著,[AA3] 這件事真的非常複雜,顯然需要採取立法行動來改變。

  • Now considering how many moving pieces they are and the complexity of our business, and the complexity or the variety, if you will, of our deployment and the relatively short amount of time our ships are in US waters, it's really hard for us to speculate on what this would mean to us.

    現在考慮到它們有多少個活動部件以及我們業務的複雜性,以及我們部署的複雜性或多樣性,以及我們的船隻在美國水域停留的時間相對較短,我們很難推測這對我們意味著什麼。

  • So I won't. Perhaps over time, there'll be more clarity on what's going on, and we'll see then. But I will say that I'd be remiss if I didn't point out to some of the positive things that are coming out of the administration. I think this push for sustained piece in the Middle East and potentially between the Ukraine and Russia can be a significant tailwind for us in 2026.

    所以我不會。也許隨著時間的推移,事情會變得更加清晰,到時候我們就能看到。但我要說的是,如果我不指出政府所取得的一些正面成果,那我就太失職了。我認為,推動中東地區以及烏克蘭和俄羅斯之間持續的和平,將在 2026 年為我們帶來巨大的推動力。

  • And I'll take Russia as an example. In our Summer '26 deployment, we have one-third of our fleet, 11 ships that are going to be based in Northern Europe, and that's all without St. Petersburg being available. If St. Petersburg was to become available for the summer '26 season, I think as a company, with one-third of our fleet based in that region of the world, we could disproportionately benefit from positive things in that region.

    我以俄羅斯為例。在我們 2026 年夏季的部署中,我們有三分之一的船隊,即 11 艘船將駐紮在北歐,而這一切都是在聖彼得堡無法使用的情況下進行的。如果聖彼得堡能夠在 26 年夏季投入運營,我認為,作為一家擁有三分之一機隊駐紮在該地區的公司,我們可以從該地區的積極因素中獲得不成比例的利益。

  • So of course, as a human being, I hope for peace for purely humanitarian reasons. As a cruise operator, we think this can provide us a unique opportunity for the summer of '26 or if not for the summer of '26, for the summer of '27. We're here for the long term, and we are very pro the work that the administration is doing in trying to bring peace to those two regions.

    因此,當然,作為一個人,我純粹是出於人道主義原因希望實現和平。作為郵輪營運商,我們認為這可以為 2026 年夏天提供一個獨特的機會,或者如果不是 2026 年夏天,那就是 2027 年夏天。我們將長期在這裡,我們非常支持政府為為這兩個地區帶來和平所做的工作。

  • Daniel Politzer - Analyst

    Daniel Politzer - Analyst

  • Thanks, really helpful perspective and hopefully you guys hit the unders on the on the number of questions. Thanks.

    謝謝,這確實是一個很有幫助的觀點,希望你們能夠回答這些問題的數量。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • James Hardiman, Citi.

    花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

  • James Hardiman - Analyst

    James Hardiman - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. A quick follow-up on, I think it was Brendt's question earlier on occupancy. A lot of the color that you've given us would seem to suggest that the yield headwind from occupancy this year, it sort of feels more onetime-ish.

    嘿,早安。快速跟進一下,我認為這是 Brendt 之前關於入住率的問題。您提供給我們的許多資訊似乎表明,今年入住率帶來的收益逆風似乎更像是一次性的。

  • So maybe as we think about the go forward occupancy rate, I mean, you did 105% roughly in 2024. That's going to be mid-103 range in '25. What's that look like? And you did 107 in 2019, I might add. But what does that look like in 2026 and beyond?

    因此,當我們考慮未來的入住率時,我的意思是,到 2024 年,入住率大約是 105%。到 25 年,這一數字將達到 103 左右。那是什麼樣子的?我想補充的是,你在 2019 年完成了 107 項。但 2026 年及以後的情況會是如何呢?

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's a little early for us to give guidance for 2026, but I think the general comment that we may have a mild tailwind on occupancy in 2026, I think, is a correct way to look at things. We'll have a little less Asia, Africa, Pacific deployment. We'll have a little more Caribbean deployment, a little more shorter Caribbean deployment.

    現在給出 2026 年的指導還為時過早,但我認為,2026 年入住率可能會出現溫和的順風,這是正確的看待事物的方式。我們將減少在亞洲、非洲和太平洋地區的部署。我們將在加勒比地區進行更多部署,在加勒比地區進行更短時間的部署。

  • As we talked about, our ramp-up, for example, of visitors to GSC. So I think it is fair to expect a mild tailwind coming into '26, but it would be premature for me to comment by exactly how much that would be.

    例如,正如我們所討論的,GSC 的訪客數量正在增加。因此,我認為,預計 26 年將出現溫和的順風,但要我評論其具體程度還為時過早。

  • James Hardiman - Analyst

    James Hardiman - Analyst

  • Got it. Totally fair. And then along the same lines, obviously, it's pretty early for 2026, but you guys do have these Charting the Course targets that are out there. And so if I just look at 2025, the guide is for about 13% earnings growth that reaccelerates in 2026 to get to that [245] that's about 20% earnings growth.

    知道了。完全公平。然後沿著同樣的思路,顯然,對於 2026 年來說還為時過早,但你們確實有這些制定路線圖的目標。因此,如果我只看 2025 年,指導價格是獲利成長約 13%,2026 年將再次加速達到 [245] 約 20% 的獲利成長。

  • Obviously, capacity is accelerating a bit. Is there anything else worth calling out? Or what else would you call out? Let me ask the question that way. Obviously, you've got Great Stirrup Cay coming online, which should be a benefit. I didn't know if there's any sort of below-the-line opportunities.

    顯然,產能正在加速成長。還有什麼值得一提的嗎?或者您還會喊什麼?讓我這樣問這個問題。顯然,大馬鐙島 (Great Stirrup Cay) 已經上線,這應該是一個好處。我不知道是否有任何低於線下的機會。

  • Occupancy sounds like it's going to be a little bit better. So just sort of bridge the gap between where you're guiding '25 and where you've targeted '26.

    入住率聽起來會好一點。因此,這只是彌補了您所指導的 25 年目標和 26 年目標之間的差距。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll make a specific comment and then a general comment. I know you referenced the 13% improvement in EPS from '24 to '25. But I'll point out that if you adjust for the FX change that Mark talked about in his commentary, it's actually represented 29% of increase in EPS year over year on an FX-adjusted basis. And clearly, we don't expect, well, at least today, we don't expect the US dollar to continue to appreciate at the rate it is.

    我將先發表一個具體評論,然後再發表一個一般性評論。我知道您提到了 24 年至 25 年每股收益成長了 13%。但我要指出的是,如果你根據馬克在評論中提到的外匯變化進行調整,那麼外匯調整後的每股收益實際上比去年同期增長了 29%。顯然,我們預計,至少今天,美元不會繼續以目前的速度升值。

  • So that would be, make the '26 earnings growth, actually, a lower bar than the '25 earnings growth, not a higher bar. But I'll go back to our general, if you will, algorithm that we believe moderate capacity growth with low to mid-single digit yield growth and sub-inflationary cost growth all will lead to improving margins, strong cash flows, de-levering balance sheet and 100% allow us to achieve our Charting the Course targets in 2026.

    因此,實際上,26 年的獲利成長標準要低於 25 年的獲利成長標準,而不是更高。但是,如果您願意的話,我將回到我們的一般演算法,即我們相信適度的產能增長、低至中等個位數的收益率增長和低於通脹的成本增長都將導致利潤率的提高、強勁的現金流、去槓桿化的資產負債表,並 100% 使我們能夠在 2026 年實現我們的規劃路線目標。

  • James Hardiman - Analyst

    James Hardiman - Analyst

  • Got it, that's a good color. Thank you.

    明白了,這個顏色不錯。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vince Ciepiel, Cleveland Research.

    文斯·西皮爾(Vince Ciepiel),克里夫蘭研究公司。

  • Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

    Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

  • Great, thanks. I want to come back to Great Stirrup. I don't know if I catch the number right, that maybe it would be 1 million passengers in '26. It sounds a little bit higher maybe than previous targets. And what percentage of capacity do you envision stopping there in '26? And any way to frame up the potential yield benefit you might see from Great Stirrup?

    太好了,謝謝。我想回到大馬鐙。我不知道我記對了沒有,也許 1926 年的乘客人數是 100 萬人。這聽起來可能比之前的目標高一點。您預計 26 年那裡的運力將佔多少比例?有什麼方法可以概括出 Great Stirrup 可能帶來的潛在利益嗎?

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So 1 million passengers in '26, yes, you did hear that correctly. Yes, that is slightly higher than what we had previously talked about as we've now completely finalized our '26 deployment. So we're giving you the latest and most accurate numbers. I believe we're scheduled to have just over 3 million guests next year. Mark, can you help me on that one?

    所以 1926 年的乘客人數為 100 萬,是的,你沒聽錯。是的,這比我們之前談論的要略高一些,因為我們現在已經完全完成了 26 年的部署。因此,我們向您提供最新、最準確的數據。我相信明年我們預計會接待300多萬遊客。馬克,你能幫我一下嗎?

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, over 3 million guests.

    是的,超過 300 萬名客人。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So this would represent, say, 30% of all our guests would include a visit at Great Stirrup Cay. It'll be a little bit premature for me to comment again on '26 guidance. I won't comment on any yield benefit. But obviously, if we didn't think it was worth going there, we wouldn't.

    因此,這意味著,我們所有客人中的 30% 將參觀大馬鐙島。現在我再次對 26 年的指導意見發表評論還為時過早。我不會對任何收益發表評論。但顯然,如果我們認為不值得去那裡,我們就不會去。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And Vince, keep in mind, what we've announced so far is that we are completing the pier in the fourth quarter of this year. And most importantly, what that's going to allow us to do is deliver the product that we've actually sold to the customer.

    文斯,請記住,我們目前宣布的是,我們將在今年第四季完成碼頭的建設。最重要的是,這將使我們能夠將實際銷售的產品交付給客戶。

  • So I think that number one will be an overall just brand tailwind. But again, we will have more throughput in there in FY26, but I agree with Harry, it's a bit too premature to talk about what the yield benefit could be simply from adding a pier.

    所以我認為,第一點將是整體品牌的順風。但是,我們 26 財年的吞吐量將會更高,但我同意 Harry 的觀點,現在談論僅僅通過增加一個碼頭就能帶來什麼收益還為時過早。

  • Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

    Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

  • Thanks. That's helpful. And then to the earlier comments on hoping for peace and what that could mean for numbers, I thought that was a helpful way to quantify St. Petersburg. Any thoughts on what Middle East or Red Sea kind of opening up could mean how quickly things could adjust. Is that more of a '27 opportunity at this point? Or could there be any lift to '26 if things got a lot better, faster there?

    謝謝。這很有幫助。然後對於之前關於希望和平以及這對數字意味著什麼的評論,我認為這是量化聖彼得堡的有用方法。關於中東或紅海開放的任何想法都可能意味著事情可以多快調整。現在這是否更像是一個 27 的機會?或者如果情況變得更好、更快,那麼 26 年是否會有所提升?

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So I think you have it exactly right. I mean unlike north of Europe, where we have 11 ships positioned there already. So I'm not saying it would be easy, but it would be reasonable for us to adjust itineraries to take advantage of it opening in St. Petersburg if and when it was to happen.

    是的。所以我認為你的解釋完全正確。我的意思是,與歐洲北部不同,我們在那裡已經有 11 艘船了。所以我並不是說這很容易,但如果聖彼得堡奧運開幕的話,我們調整行程以利用這個機會是合理的。

  • And clearly, in '27, we will also have something like 11 ships or one-third of our fleet there. So even if we missed the opportunity in '26, there's a longer-term tailwind in '27. Middle East is a little bit more complicated because that's part of the deployment program where we positioned ships between the summer and winter.

    顯然,在27年,我們還將在那裡部署約11艘船,占我們艦隊的三分之一。因此,即使我們錯過了 26 年的機會,27 年也會出現更長期的順風。中東的情況稍微複雜一些,因為這是部署計劃的一部分,我們在夏季和冬季之間部署船隻。

  • So we would not change our deployment to take advantage of a Red Sea, Middle Eastern opening in the short term, I agree with you that likely would be more of a '27 item as you suggest.

    因此,我們不會在短期內改變我們的部署以利用紅海、中東的空缺,我同意你的觀點,這可能更像是你所建議的『27 專案』。

  • Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

    Vince Ciepiel - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

    康納·坎寧安(Conor Cunningham),Melius Research。

  • Conor Cunningham - Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Analyst

  • Everyone, thank you. Just going back to the book position commentary. I was under the impression that there may be some changes in inventory management. Can you just talk a little bit about that, what you're doing this year versus last year? It just seems like there's an opportunity to better utilize price? Just trying to understand it a little bit better. Thank you.

    謝謝大家。回到書籍立場評論。我的印像是庫存管理可能會發生一些變化。您能否稍微談一下,今年與去年相比您做了什麼?這似乎是一個更好地利用價格的機會?只是想更好地理解它。謝謝。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, good morning, Connor. Look, I think what we've said and what we've continued to say is every year, every quarter, we get better and better at improving our revenue management systems. And yes, while we continue to make what we believe are low cost technology improvements, that's part of our normal day to day business. So that's something we focus on week in, week out, quarter after quarter. It's a never-ending process.

    是的,早安,康納。聽著,我認為我們已經說過並且一直在說的是,每年、每個季度,我們都在越來越好地改善我們的收入管理系統。是的,雖然我們繼續進行我們認為低成本的技術改進,但這也是我們日常業務的一部分。因此,這是我們每週、每季都關注的事情。這是一個永無止境的過程。

  • As you well know, revenue management is an art as much as it is a science. But I don't think we've indicated that we're doing some sort of sweeping change. It's more of continuous refinement and improvement of our existing processes and technology.

    眾所周知,收益管理既是一門藝術,也是一門科學。但我不認為我們正在進行某種徹底的改變。這更多的是對我們現有流程和技術的不斷改進和改進。

  • Conor Cunningham - Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then I was hoping you could just touch on the demographic changes. And you've highlighted a lot of marketing efforts with partnerships in the deck and whatnot.

    好的。這很有幫助。然後我希望您能談談人口變化。您在演講中強調了與合作夥伴進行的大量行銷工作等等。

  • So are you seeing an influx of new to cruise and new to brand? Just trying to understand how like the ROIs on the marketing campaigns as you change some stuff. Thank you.

    那麼,您是否看到了新遊客和新品牌的湧入?只是想了解當你改變一些東西時行銷活動的投資回報率如何。謝謝。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you for the question. I can't point to anything meaningful one way or another. We continue to have roughly the same mix of new to cruise, new (inaudible) guests. We're happy with the mix we have today.

    謝謝你的提問。我無法以任何方式指出任何有意義的事情。我們繼續擁有大致相同的新遊輪乘客和新(聽不清楚)客人。我們對今天的組合很滿意。

  • I'll get the same commentary that Mark gave on revenue management systems that we have a team of data scientists that are constantly looking at our marketing efforts upper funnel, mid-funnel lower funnel to optimize to the best of our abilities across all three of our brands. We're happy with the direction it's going. But the continuous thing that we work on day in and day out.

    我會得到與馬克對收入管理系統相同的評論,我們擁有一個數據科學家團隊,他們不斷關注我們的行銷工作上層漏斗、中層漏斗和下層漏斗,以盡最大努力優化我們三個品牌。我們對它的發展方向感到滿意。但我們每天都在持續不斷地努力。

  • Maria, I believe we have time for one last question.

    瑪麗亞,我想我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robin Farley, UBS.

    瑞銀的羅賓法利。

  • Robin Farley - Analyst

    Robin Farley - Analyst

  • Great, thank you. I think on last quarter's call, you had given a little bit of color on your forward bookings, I think a little more detail. I think you had said that price and load factor in each quarter in 2025 was at the same or higher than last year.

    太好了,謝謝。我認為在上個季度的電話會議上,您對您的遠期預訂情況做了一些說明,我認為會更詳細一些。我想您說過,2025 年每季的價格和載客率將與去年持平或更高。

  • Could you kind of give us a sense of that? Or is there a difference in any of those quarters kind of how that is compared to last quarter? Thanks.

    您能給我們講一下這個嗎?或者與上一季相比,這些季度中是否存在差異?謝謝。

  • Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mark Kempa - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks for the question. Look, I think rather than focusing on is every quarter at higher load or higher pricing. I think the better question for us is, are we at our best optimal booked position whether it's on a 12 or 15 or 24 month basis.

    謝謝你的提問。你看,我認為重點不應該是每季更高的負荷或更高的價格。我認為對我們來說更好的問題是,我們是否處於最佳預訂位置,無論是 12 個月、15 個月還是 24 個月。

  • And I think the resounding answer to that based on our commentary is, yes, we are in what we believe is our optimal book position. We are focused on delivering the best economics out of the customer. We are not necessarily focused on the minutia between each quarter.

    我認為,根據我們的評論,對此的響亮回答是:是的,我們認為我們正處於最佳的圖書地位。我們致力於為客戶提供最佳的經濟效益。我們不一定關注每季之間的細節。

  • Yes, obviously, we monitor that. But you want us to be in our best optimal position versus thinking about any sort of records or anything like that. So no change in thinking or no change in our forward outlook, simply really focusing on what we believe important and is that optimal range.

    是的,顯然,我們會監控這一點。但是你希望我們處於最佳狀態,而不是考慮任何類型的記錄或類似的東西。因此,我們的思維沒有改變,我們的前瞻性也沒有改變,只是真正關注我們認為重要的事情以及最佳範圍。

  • Robin Farley - Analyst

    Robin Farley - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just a quick follow up on a totally different topic. I think I probably know what your answer will be, but just to get your official sort of thoughts about the [river] cruise business. Some others have been looking at that for the first time.

    好的。偉大的。然後我們再快速討論一下完全不同的話題。我想我可能知道您的答案是什麼,但我只是想了解您對(河流)遊輪業務的官方看法。其他一些人是第一次看到這個。

  • And I assume your focus and your balance sheet is mostly going to be really just focused on your core business and a lot of things you want to do in your existing business, but I get your official thoughts on that.

    我認為您的重點和資產負債表主要將集中在您的核心業務以及您想在現有業務中做的很多事情上,但我了解您對此的官方想法。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Robin, thank you for the question. I think that's exactly right. We have, I think, one of the most robust order books in the industry with 13 cruise ships on order, two being delivered this year, a book that extends out for the next decade. We are very passionate about what we do.

    羅賓,謝謝你的提問。我認為這是完全正確的。我認為,我們擁有業內最強勁的訂單之一,已訂購 13 艘遊輪,其中兩艘將於今年交付,訂單期限將持續到未來十年。我們對自己所做的事情充滿熱情。

  • We're very passionate about what we do today because we do it well, and we can deliver outstanding financial performance by delivering a guest experience. And we are putting all our efforts behind continuing to do that.

    我們對今天所做的事情充滿熱情,因為我們做得很好,並且我們可以透過提供優質的客戶體驗來實現出色的財務業績。我們將竭盡全力繼續這樣做。

  • If there are other brands that want to do something else, I leave that with them. But for our company, we are very happy with our current strategy and direction.

    如果其他品牌想要做其他事情,我會把這個留給他們去做。但對於我們公司而言,我們對目前的策略和方向非常滿意。

  • Robin Farley - Analyst

    Robin Farley - Analyst

  • Great, thank you very much.

    太好了,非常感謝。

  • Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Sommer - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So, once again, I want to thank everyone for joining us today. We'll be around all day today to answer any follow-up questions you may have. Thank you all very much and have a wonderful day.

    因此,我再次感謝大家今天的參加。我們今天全天都會為您解答任何後續問題。非常感謝大家,祝大家有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

    今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。