美光科技 (MU) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon.

    下午好。

  • My name is Sherry, and I will be your conference facilitator today.

    我的名字是雪莉,今天我將成為你的會議主持人。

  • At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Micron's Fourth Quarter 2019 Financial Release Conference Call.

    在這個時候,我想歡迎大家參加美光 2019 年第四季度財務發布電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

    (操作員說明)謝謝。

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. Farhan Ahmad, Head of Investor Relations.

    現在我很高興將發言權交給您的主持人,投資者關係主管 Farhan Ahmad 先生。

  • You may begin your conference.

    你可以開始你的會議了。

  • Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

    Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

  • Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technology's fourth fiscal quarter 2019 financial conference call.

    謝謝大家,歡迎參加美光科技 2019 財年第四季度財務電話會議。

  • On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO; and Dave Zinsner, Chief Financial Officer.

    今天與我通話的是總裁兼首席執行官 Sanjay Mehrotra;和首席財務官 Dave Zinsner。

  • Today's call will be approximately 60 minutes in length.

    今天的通話時間約為 60 分鐘。

  • This call, including the audio and slides, is also being webcast from our Investor Relations website at investors.micron.com.

    此次電話會議(包括音頻和幻燈片)也將通過我們的投資者關係網站investors.micron.com 進行網絡直播。

  • In addition, our website contains the earnings press release and the prepared remarks filed a short while ago.

    此外,我們的網站還包含收益新聞稿和不久前提交的準備好的評論。

  • Today's discussion of financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified.

    除非另有說明,否則今天對財務結果的討論將在非公認會計原則財務基礎上進行。

  • A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures can be found on our website, along with the convertible debt and capped call dilution table.

    可以在我們的網站上找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬,以及可轉換債務和上限看漲期權稀釋表。

  • As a reminder, a webcast replay will be available on our website later today.

    提醒一下,今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供網絡直播重播。

  • We encourage you to monitor our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on the various financial conferences that we will be attending.

    我們鼓勵您在整個季度監控我們的網站 micron.com,以獲取有關公司的最新信息,包括我們將參加的各種財務會議的信息。

  • You can follow us on Twitter @MicronTech.

    您可以在 Twitter @MicronTech 上關注我們。

  • As a reminder, the matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements.

    提醒一下,我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述。

  • These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today.

    這些前瞻性陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與今天的陳述存在重大差異。

  • We refer you to the documents we filed with the SEC, specifically our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q, for a discussion of the risks that may affect our future results.

    我們向您推薦我們向 SEC 提交的文件,特別是我們最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格,以討論可能影響我們未來結果的風險。

  • Although we believe that the expectations reflected in forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements.

    儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的,但我們不能保證未來的結果、活動水平、業績或成就。

  • We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after today's date to conform these statements to actual results.

    我們沒有義務在今天之後更新任何前瞻性陳述以使這些陳述符合實際結果。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay.

    我現在將把電話轉給 Sanjay。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Farhan.

    謝謝你,法爾漢。

  • Good afternoon.

    下午好。

  • Fiscal 2019 was another solid year of execution as we continue to transform the New Micron.

    隨著我們繼續改造新美光,2019 財年又是一個穩健的執行年。

  • Despite the challenging industry environment, we achieved the second-best year in our history of revenue, free cash flow and earnings, which underscores the strength of the New Micron.

    儘管行業環境充滿挑戰,但我們在收入、自由現金流和收益方面取得了歷史上第二好的一年,這凸顯了新美光的實力。

  • We improved structural profitability by further reducing the technology gap with competitors and by strengthening our product portfolio.

    我們通過進一步縮小與競爭對手的技術差距和加強我們的產品組合來提高結構盈利能力。

  • We also made progress on our $10 billion share repurchase program by returning $2.7 billion to our shareholders.

    我們還通過向股東返還 27 億美元,在 100 億美元的股票回購計劃上取得了進展。

  • In the fiscal fourth quarter, the Micron team's strong execution resulted in financial performance exceeding our guidance ranges.

    在第四財季,美光團隊的強大執行力使財務業績超出了我們的指導範圍。

  • Market trends were broadly consistent with our expectations discussed on the last earnings call.

    市場趨勢與我們在上次財報電話會議上討論的預期大體一致。

  • DRAM demand bounced back as the factors that impacted calendar first half demand largely dissipated.

    由於影響日曆上半年需求的因素已基本消散,DRAM 需求反彈。

  • NAND elasticity is driving robust demand growth, causing industry inventories to improve rapidly.

    NAND 彈性正在推動強勁的需求增長,導致行業庫存迅速改善。

  • While the demand recovery in DRAM and NAND is encouraging, we remain mindful of ongoing macroeconomic and trade uncertainties.

    雖然 DRAM 和 NAND 的需求復蘇令人鼓舞,但我們仍然關注持續的宏觀經濟和貿易不確定性。

  • I will provide more color on our view of the market after the review of progress on our key strategic objectives.

    在審查了我們關鍵戰略目標的進展後,我將提供更多關於我們對市場的看法。

  • Since 2016, the actions we have taken to reduce our cost structure, increase our mix of high-value solutions and enhance our customer engagement and go-to-market strategy have significantly improved our profitability relative to our peers.

    自 2016 年以來,我們為降低成本結構、增加高價值解決方案組合以及增強客戶參與度和進入市場戰略而採取的行動顯著提高了我們相對於同行的盈利能力。

  • In fiscal 2019, our DRAM cost per bit declines led the industry and exceeded our internal plans despite the headwinds from our announced reduction in wafer starts.

    在 2019 財年,我們的 DRAM 每位成本下降領先於行業,並超出了我們的內部計劃,儘管我們宣布減少晶圓開工量的不利因素。

  • In the fiscal fourth quarter, we began mass production and volume shipments of the industry's first 1Z products, giving Micron feature size leadership for DRAM.

    在第四財季,我們開始量產並量產業界首款 1Z 產品,使美光在 DRAM 特徵尺寸方面處於領先地位。

  • We are also making good progress migrating more of our production to leading-edge nodes.

    我們在將更多生產遷移到前沿節點方面也取得了良好進展。

  • While we enter fiscal 2019 with more than half of our bit production on 20-nanometer or older nodes, we ended the fiscal year with approximately 3/4 on 1X and beyond, with a meaningful portion on 1Y.

    雖然我們進入 2019 財年時,我們一半以上的比特生產是在 20 納米或更早的節點上生產的,但我們以大約 3/4 的 1X 及以後的產量結束了本財年,其中 1Y 的部分很有意義。

  • As previously announced, we are expanding cleanroom space in our Taichung, Taiwan site to support future node transitions of our existing wafer capacity, and we expect output from this facility in calendar 2021.

    正如之前宣布的那樣,我們正在擴大我們在台灣台中工廠的潔淨室空間,以支持我們現有晶圓產能的未來節點轉換,我們預計該設施將在 2021 日曆年實現產出。

  • In NAND, we continued to outpace industry cost declines during fiscal 2019.

    在 NAND 方面,我們在 2019 財年繼續超過行業成本下降的速度。

  • 96-layer 3D NAND is continuing to increase as a portion of our mix.

    作為我們組合的一部分,96 層 3D NAND 繼續增加。

  • Meanwhile, we achieved our first yielding dies using replacement gate or RG for short.

    同時,我們使用替換澆口或簡稱為 RG 實現了我們的第一個良率模具。

  • This milestone further reduces the risk for our RG transition.

    這一里程碑進一步降低了我們 RG 過渡的風險。

  • As a reminder, our first RG node will be 128 layers and will be used for a select set of products.

    提醒一下,我們的第一個 RG 節點將有 128 層,將用於一組精選產品。

  • We don't expect RG to deliver meaningful cost reductions until fiscal 2021 when our second-generation RG node is broadly deployed.

    我們預計 RG 在 2021 財年廣泛部署第二代 RG 節點之前不會顯著降低成本。

  • Consequently, we are expecting minimal cost reductions in NAND in fiscal 2020.

    因此,我們預計 2020 財年 NAND 的成本降幅最小。

  • Our RG production deployment approach will optimize the ROI of our NAND capital investments.

    我們的 RG 生產部署方法將優化我們的 NAND 資本投資的投資回報率。

  • In addition, we announced the grand opening of our Singapore cleanroom expansion in August.

    此外,我們宣佈在 8 月隆重開設新加坡潔淨室擴建項目。

  • This will enable the transition of our existing NAND wafer capacity to future generations of 3D NAND technology.

    這將使我們現有的 NAND 晶圓產能過渡到下一代 3D NAND 技術。

  • We are continuing to make solid progress with our 3D XPoint product development and remain on track to launch our initial products in calendar 2019.

    我們將繼續在 3D XPoint 產品開發方面取得穩固進展,並繼續按計劃在 2019 年推出我們的初始產品。

  • Now turning to highlights by markets.

    現在轉向市場亮點。

  • In SSDs, the industry transition from SATA to NVMe in fiscal 2019 continued at a rapid rate.

    在 SSD 方面,2019 財年從 SATA 到 NVMe 的行業轉型繼續快速發展。

  • While we have been late to the NVMe market, our progress positions us to gain share starting in fiscal 2020.

    雖然我們在 NVMe 市場上遲到了,但我們的進步使我們能夠從 2020 財年開始獲得份額。

  • For OEMs, building on strong growth last quarter, we more than tripled revenue shipments of our NVMe client SSD sequentially with sales penetration in multiple Tier 1 PC OEMs.

    對於原始設備製造商而言,在上個季度強勁增長的基礎上,我們的 NVMe 客戶端 SSD 的收入出貨量環比增長了兩倍多,並在多個 1 級 PC 原始設備製造商中實現了銷售滲透。

  • Our QLC-based NVMe consumer SSD was a best-selling SSD on Amazon Prime Day in North America.

    我們基於 QLC 的 NVMe 消費級 SSD 是北美 Amazon Prime Day 上最暢銷的 SSD。

  • Our consumer SSD segment achieved record revenue and unit shipments with bits posting triple digit percentage growth year-over-year driven by our strategy to pursue channel expansion that extends our geographical and customer reach.

    我們的消費級 SSD 部門實現了創紀錄的收入和單位出貨量,在我們追求渠道擴張以擴大我們的地理和客戶範圍的戰略的推動下,位元實現了三位數的同比增長。

  • Price elasticity is driving an increase in attach rates and capacities, leading to solid demand growth across client and consumer SSDs.

    價格彈性正在推動附加率和容量的增加,從而導致客戶端和消費類 SSD 的需求穩健增長。

  • We are also making solid progress on advancing our road map of NVMe SSDs for the enterprise and cloud markets.

    我們還在推進面向企業和雲市場的 NVMe SSD 路線圖方面取得了堅實的進展。

  • In fiscal 2019, we introduced the high-performance 9300 line of NVMe products targeting high-end data center applications and are looking forward to increasing adoption of this product.

    在 2019 財年,我們推出了針對高端數據中心應用的高性能 9300 系列 NVMe 產品,並期待該產品的採用率越來越高。

  • In mobile, our portfolio featuring the industry's lowest-power and highest-density products is enabling our customers to bring differentiated capabilities to the market and helping us deliver outstanding financial performance in a challenging industry environment.

    在移動領域,我們以業界最低功耗和最高密度產品為特色的產品組合使我們的客戶能夠為市場帶來差異化功能,並幫助我們在充滿挑戰的行業環境中提供出色的財務業績。

  • In fiscal 2019, we delivered mobile revenue that was down only 3% from 2018's record performance despite a significant drop in market pricing and the impact from the addition of Huawei to the Entity List.

    在 2019 財年,儘管市場定價大幅下降以及華為加入實體清單的影響,我們的移動收入僅比 2018 年的創紀錄表現下降了 3%。

  • Our mobile margins were resilient and our managed NAND bit shipments in fiscal 2019 more than tripled year-on-year driven by growth of MCP and discrete NAND eMMC and UFS products.

    在 MCP 和離散 NAND eMMC 和 UFS 產品增長的推動下,我們的移動利潤率具有彈性,我們在 2019 財年管理的 NAND 位出貨量同比增長了兩倍多。

  • In the fiscal fourth quarter, we started volume shipments of a new leading-edge UFS-based MCP that uses our 1Z LPDRAM.

    在第四財季,我們開始批量出貨使用我們的 1Z LPDRAM 的基於 UFS 的新型 MCP。

  • This new UFS MCP will bring flagship-like performance and densities to mid- and high-end smartphones.

    這款全新的 UFS MCP 將為中高端智能手機帶來旗艦級的性能和密度。

  • We are also leading the industry in power efficient, high-bandwidth LP5 DRAM, which positions us well as 5G begins to accelerate in 2020.

    我們還在高能效、高帶寬 LP5 DRAM 方面處於行業領先地位,這使我們在 2020 年 5G 開始加速時處於有利地位。

  • In data center, customer inventories for DRAM have reduced significantly, driving solid sequential demand growth for server solutions in both cloud and enterprise markets.

    在數據中心,DRAM 的客戶庫存顯著減少,推動了雲和企業市場對服務器解決方案的持續需求增長。

  • New processor platforms are also creating an uptick in demand for higher-density and higher-performance DRAM modules.

    新的處理器平台也對更高密度和更高性能的 DRAM 模塊的需求增加。

  • In graphics, we saw strong sequential bit growth with increases for graphics cards and gaming consoles as normal buying resumed following inventory reductions in DRAM.

    在圖形方面,隨著 DRAM 庫存減少後恢復正常購買,我們看到了強勁的連續位增長,圖形卡和遊戲機的增長。

  • In the PC market, DRAM module and SSD shipments continued the growth trend from last quarter as CPU shortages further subsided.

    在個人電腦市場,隨著CPU短缺的進一步消退,DRAM模塊和SSD的出貨量延續了上季度的增長趨勢。

  • In automotive, we continued to increase revenue year-over-year despite weak auto industry unit sales and a challenging DRAM industry environment.

    在汽車領域,儘管汽車行業銷量疲軟且 DRAM 行業環境充滿挑戰,但我們的收入仍同比繼續增長。

  • Our growth was supported by secular content increases, our superior quality and well-established customer relationships.

    我們的增長得益於長期內容的增長、我們卓越的質量和良好的客戶關係。

  • LP4 shipments in the fiscal fourth quarter were over 5x higher year-over-year as lower-power DRAM becomes increasingly important for new infotainment and ADAS systems.

    由於低功耗 DRAM 對於新的信息娛樂和 ADAS 系統變得越來越重要,第四財季的 LP4 出貨量同比增長 5 倍以上。

  • We continue to have leading industry share in automotive.

    我們在汽車領域繼續保持領先的行業份額。

  • Before talking about the market outlook, I want to provide an update on our business with Huawei and the ongoing impact of trade uncertainties.

    在談論市場前景之前,我想先介紹一下我們與華為的業務以及貿易不確定性的持續影響。

  • As we noted last quarter, we started shipping some products to Huawei that are not subject to Export Administration Regulations and Entity List restrictions.

    正如我們上個季度所指出的,我們開始向華為運送一些不受出口管理條例和實體清單限制的產品。

  • In the fiscal fourth quarter, sales to Huawei declined sequentially and were down meaningfully from the levels we anticipated prior to the addition of Huawei to the Entity List.

    在第四財季,對華為的銷售額環比下降,低於我們在將華為加入實體清單之前的預期水平。

  • We have applied for licenses with the Department of Commerce that would allow us to ship additional products, but there have been no decisions on licenses to date.

    我們已經向商務部申請了許可,允許我們運送更多產品,但迄今為止還沒有關於許可的決定。

  • We see ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations.

    我們看到圍繞美中貿易談判的持續不確定性。

  • If the Entity List restrictions against Huawei continue and we are unable to get licenses, we could see a worsening decline in our sales to Huawei over the coming quarters.

    如果實體清單對華為的限制繼續存在,我們無法獲得許可證,我們可能會看到未來幾個季度我們對華為的銷售額將進一步下降。

  • Now turning to our market outlook, which assumes that the macroeconomic environment doesn't materially deteriorate from current levels.

    現在轉向我們的市場前景,假設宏觀經濟環境不會從當前水平實質性惡化。

  • I'll begin with our industry outlook and then turn to Micron's outlook for DRAM and NAND.

    我將從我們的行業展望開始,然後轉向美光對 DRAM 和 NAND 的展望。

  • The DRAM and NAND industry demand growth in the second half of calendar 2019 compared to the first half is primarily being driven by a normalization of inventories at most customers and secular growth trends in various end markets.

    與上半年相比,2019 年下半年 DRAM 和 NAND 行業的需求增長主要受到大多數客戶庫存正常化和各種終端市場長期增長趨勢的推動。

  • In recent months, we have seen increased demand from customers headquartered in Mainland China, some of whom could be making strategic decisions to build higher levels of inventory in the face of increased trade tensions between the U.S. and China as well as Japan and Korea.

    最近幾個月,我們看到總部位於中國大陸的客戶的需求增加,面對中美以及日本和韓國之間的貿易緊張局勢加劇,其中一些客戶可能會做出戰略決策以建立更高水平的庫存。

  • Our view of calendar 2019 DRAM industry bit demand growth remains unchanged at mid-teens, with supply exceeding demand due to previously discussed factors that impacted first half calendar 2019 demand.

    我們對 2019 年 DRAM 行業位需求增長的看法保持不變,由於之前討論的影響 2019 年上半年需求的因素,供大於求。

  • Based on our early view of calendar 2020, we expect the industry to see bit demand growth of high teens to 20%, above supply growth of only mid-teens, which should help normalize supplier inventories and enable a healthy industry environment.

    根據我們對 2020 年日曆的早期看法,我們預計該行業的比特需求增長將達到 20%,高於僅中位數的供應增長,這將有助於使供應商庫存正常化並營造健康的行業環境。

  • We expect the long-term DRAM bit demand growth CAGR to be mid to high teens.

    我們預計長期 DRAM 位需求增長 CAGR 將處於中高水平。

  • Turning to NAND industry outlook, demand elasticity and industry supply reductions are resulting in improving market conditions and declining industry inventory.

    轉向NAND行業前景,需求彈性和行業供應減少導致市場狀況改善和行業庫存下降。

  • On the supply side, CapEx and wafer start cuts across the industry are leading to supply reductions.

    在供應方面,整個行業的資本支出和晶圓開工削減導致供應減少。

  • A power outage at a competitor's fab also reduced industry supply and inventory.

    競爭對手工廠的停電也減少了行業供應和庫存。

  • We now expect calendar 2019 industry bit demand growth in the low to mid-40% range, which will exceed industry bit supply growth of approximately 30%.

    我們現在預計 2019 年日曆行業鑽頭需求增長在 40% 的中低範圍,這將超過行業鑽頭供應增長約 30%。

  • Based on our view of calendar 2020, we estimate industry bit demand growth of high 20s to low 30% range, with supply growing somewhat below demand.

    根據我們對 2020 年日曆的看法,我們估計行業鑽頭需求增長在 20% 到 30% 的範圍內,供應增長略低於需求。

  • We believe that NAND industry margins, which are at the lowest levels in the last 10 years, should start increasing for the rest of the year.

    我們認為,處於過去 10 年最低水平的 NAND 行業利潤率應該會在今年餘下時間開始增加。

  • We expect the long-term NAND bit demand growth CAGR to be in the low 30% range.

    我們預計長期 NAND 位需求增長 CAGR 將在 30% 的低位範圍內。

  • Specific to Micron's DRAM outlook, we are seeing solid demand from customers across multiple segments.

    具體到美光的 DRAM 前景,我們看到多個細分市場的客戶需求強勁。

  • This is improving our inventory, and we have started to see pockets of tight supply, particularly in leading-edge nodes.

    這正在改善我們的庫存,我們已經開始看到供應緊張的情況,特別是在前沿節點。

  • However, we still have elevated inventory levels on older nodes.

    但是,我們仍然在舊節點上提高了庫存水平。

  • As a result, we are continuing with the previously disclosed DRAM wafer start reductions of 5%.

    因此,我們將繼續之前披露的 DRAM 晶圓開始減少 5%。

  • We expect Micron's calendar 2019 bit supply growth to be slightly below industry demand growth of mid-teens and expect our calendar 2020 DRAM bit supply growth to be close to the market demand growth.

    我們預計美光 2019 年日曆位供應增長將略低於 10 年中期的行業需求增長,並預計我們 2020 年日曆 DRAM 位供應增長將接近市場需求增長。

  • We also expect our DRAM cost reductions to moderate in fiscal 2020 to high single digits.

    我們還預計我們的 DRAM 成本將在 2020 財年放緩至高個位數。

  • As we have said before, the increasing complexity of more advanced DRAM nodes is resulting in slower pace of cost declines for the industry.

    正如我們之前所說,更先進的 DRAM 節點日益複雜,導致行業成本下降速度放緩。

  • As our DRAM inventory improves, we are committed to maintaining price discipline.

    隨著我們 DRAM 庫存的改善,我們致力於維持價格紀律。

  • While we are having to respond to some aggressive market pricing, we have started walking away from some transactions as we look to optimize our profitability.

    雖然我們不得不對一些激進的市場定價做出反應,但我們已經開始放棄一些交易,因為我們希望優化我們的盈利能力。

  • Turning to Micron's NAND outlook, we expect our calendar 2019 bit growth to be slightly above industry supply growth, and in calendar 2020, we expect Micron's bit supply growth to be significantly below the industry demand growth as we transition a limited portion of our wafer starts to our first-generation replacement gate node and use inventory to support customer demand.

    談到美光的 NAND 前景,我們預計 2019 日曆年的位元增長將略高於行業供應增長,而在 2020 年日曆中,我們預計美光的位元供應增長將大大低於行業需求增長,因為我們過渡了有限部分的晶圓開工到我們的第一代替換門節點並使用庫存來支持客戶需求。

  • Supply growth will also be impacted by our previously announced wafer start reductions of approximately 10%.

    供應增長也將受到我們先前宣布的晶圓開工減少約 10% 的影響。

  • We are seeing some capacity tightness in our back-end manufacturing operations due to significant increases in demand for high-capacity NAND products.

    由於對高容量 NAND 產品的需求顯著增加,我們的後端製造業務出現了一些產能緊張。

  • This is another data point of elasticity kicking in on high-value NAND solutions.

    這是高價值 NAND 解決方案的另一個彈性數據點。

  • While NAND and DRAM market conditions are showing some promising signs, in order to bring our supply in line with the market demand, we are targeting our fiscal 2020 front-end equipment CapEx to be reduced by more than 30% from fiscal 2019.

    雖然 NAND 和 DRAM 市場狀況顯示出一些可喜的跡象,但為了使我們的供應符合市場需求,我們的目標是 2020 財年前端設備資本支出比 2019 財年減少 30% 以上。

  • Our CapEx decision is also influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty and low industry profitability.

    我們的資本支出決策還受到宏觀經濟不確定性和行業盈利能力低的影響。

  • Our front-end CapEx outlook reflects our strategy for limited ramp of our first RG node.

    我們的前端資本支出前景反映了我們第一個 RG 節點的有限增長戰略。

  • While we are reducing front-end equipment CapEx, we are spending significantly more on shell space to enable future node transitions and also investing in a new SSD packaging facility in Penang, Malaysia.

    雖然我們正在減少前端設備資本支出,但我們在外殼空間上的支出顯著增加,以實現未來的節點轉換,並且還在馬來西亞檳城投資了一個新的 SSD 封裝設施。

  • As always, we will maintain flexibility and discipline while investing appropriately for Micron's long-term success.

    與往常一樣,我們將保持靈活性和紀律性,同時為美光的長期成功進行適當投資。

  • I want to emphasize that our goal is to manage our DRAM and NAND bit supply growth CAGR in line with industry demand.

    我想強調的是,我們的目標是根據行業需求管理我們的 DRAM 和 NAND 位供應增長 CAGR。

  • As we catch up on the technology and cost gaps to best-in-class competitors in DRAM and transition to RG technology in NAND, our supply growth may fluctuate, but we expect the medium to long-term growth rate of our supply to approximately equal the rate of demand growth across both NAND and DRAM markets.

    隨著我們在 DRAM 領域趕上與一流競爭對手的技術和成本差距,並在 NAND 領域向 RG 技術過渡,我們的供應增長可能會出現波動,但我們預計我們的供應中長期增長率將大致持平NAND 和 DRAM 市場的需求增長率。

  • We are also focused on maximizing the ROI of our CapEx investments, and for this reason, we are not emphasizing wafer capacity growth, but instead focusing on bit growth driven by technology transitions.

    我們還專注於最大限度地提高資本支出的投資回報率,因此,我們不強調晶圓產能增長,而是關注技術轉型驅動的比特增長。

  • In addition, some of our CapEx is dedicated to increasing our internal capacity for assembly, packaging and test, which helps us drive cost reductions without adding any bit growth and has good ROI.

    此外,我們的一些資本支出專門用於提高我們的內部組裝、封裝和測試能力,這有助於我們在不增加任何比特增長的情況下推動成本降低,並具有良好的投資回報率。

  • I'll now turn it over to Dave to provide our financial results and guidance.

    我現在將把它交給戴夫來提供我們的財務結果和指導。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Sanjay.

    謝謝,桑傑。

  • As Sanjay mentioned, Micron delivered resilient performance throughout a challenging year for the industry, highlighted by fiscal Q4 results that exceeded our guided ranges for revenue and earnings.

    正如 Sanjay 所提到的,美光在整個行業充滿挑戰的一年中實現了彈性表現,特別是第四季度財報業績超出了我們的收入和收益指導範圍。

  • As market conditions evolved during the year, we curtailed our planned operating expenses and capital expenditures, allowing us to preserve margins and generate healthy free cash flow.

    隨著年內市場狀況的變化,我們削減了計劃的運營費用和資本支出,使我們能夠保持利潤率並產生健康的自由現金流。

  • We achieved our first corporate investment-grade rating, strengthened our balance sheet and meaningfully reduced our share count.

    我們獲得了首個企業投資級評級,加強了我們的資產負債表並顯著減少了我們的股票數量。

  • All in all, fiscal 2019 was a year of stellar progress that sets Micron up for attractive growth as industry conditions recover.

    總而言之,2019 財年是取得顯著進步的一年,隨著行業狀況的複蘇,美光將實現有吸引力的增長。

  • Turning to our recent financial results.

    轉向我們最近的財務業績。

  • Total fiscal Q4 revenue was approximately $4.9 billion.

    第四財季總收入約為 49 億美元。

  • Revenue was up 2% sequentially and down 42% year-over-year.

    收入環比增長 2%,同比下降 42%。

  • Revenue exceeded our guidance range largely due to better-than-expected demand.

    收入超出我們的指導範圍主要是由於好於預期的需求。

  • Full fiscal 2019 revenue totaled $23.4 billion, down 23% year-over-year.

    2019財年全年收入總計234億美元,同比下降23%。

  • Fiscal Q4 DRAM revenue was $3.1 billion, representing 63% of total revenue.

    第四財季 DRAM 收入為 31 億美元,佔總收入的 63%。

  • DRAM revenue increased 1% sequentially and declined 48% year-on-year.

    DRAM 收入環比增長 1%,同比下降 48%。

  • Bit shipments grew approximately 30% sequentially and in the mid-teens percent range year-on-year as customer inventories improved significantly.

    由於客戶庫存顯著改善,位元出貨量環比增長約 30%,同比增長約 10%。

  • ASP declined approximately 20% sequentially.

    平均售價環比下降約 20%。

  • For full fiscal 2019, DRAM revenue was $15.2 billion, down 28% from fiscal 2018 as bits grew in the low single digit percent range and ASP declined approximately 30%.

    整個 2019 財年,DRAM 收入為 152 億美元,比 2018 財年下降 28%,原因是位在低個位數百分比範圍內增長,而 ASP 下降了約 30%。

  • Fiscal Q4 NAND revenue was approximately $1.5 billion or 31% of total revenue.

    第四財季 NAND 收入約為 15 億美元,佔總收入的 31%。

  • Revenue was up 5% sequentially, but declined 32% year-on-year.

    收入環比增長 5%,但同比下降 32%。

  • Bit shipments grew in the low to mid-teens percent range sequentially.

    位出貨量環比增長在低至百分之十幾的範圍內。

  • ASP declined in the upper single digit percent range.

    平均售價在上個位數百分比範圍內下降。

  • We're starting to see supply tightness in portions of the NAND market and prices are beginning to increase.

    我們開始看到部分 NAND 市場供應緊張,價格開始上漲。

  • Full fiscal 2019 NAND revenue was $6.9 billion, down 12% from fiscal 2018 as ASP declines of mid-40s percent range more than offset strong bit shipment growth.

    整個 2019 財年 NAND 收入為 69 億美元,比 2018 財年下降 12%,因為 ASP 下降 40% 左右,抵消了強勁的位出貨量增長。

  • Now turning to our revenue trends by business unit.

    現在轉向按業務部門劃分的收入趨勢。

  • Revenue for the Compute and Networking Business Unit was $1.9 billion in fiscal Q4, a decline of 8% sequentially and down 56% year-over-year.

    第四財季計算和網絡業務部門的收入為 19 億美元,環比下降 8%,同比下降 56%。

  • ASP declines across most segments continue to be the leading cause of lower revenue.

    大多數細分市場的平均售價下降仍然是收入下降的主要原因。

  • For the fiscal year, revenue was $10 billion, down 35% year-over-year.

    本財年收入為 100 億美元,同比下降 35%。

  • Revenue for the Mobile Business Unit in fiscal Q4 was $1.4 billion, up 20% sequentially and down 26% year-over-year.

    第四財季移動業務部門的收入為 14 億美元,環比增長 20%,同比下降 26%。

  • Both DRAM and NAND bits had strong growth driven by seasonality and continued content growth in smartphones.

    受季節性因素和智能手機內容持續增長的推動,DRAM 和 NAND 位均實現了強勁增長。

  • Our mobile business gained share in the year driven by a stronger product portfolio.

    在更強大的產品組合的推動下,我們的移動業務在這一年獲得了份額。

  • For the full fiscal year, MBU revenue was $6.4 billion, down only 3% from fiscal 2018.

    整個財年,MBU 收入為 64 億美元,僅比 2018 財年下降 3%。

  • Revenue for the Storage Business Unit in fiscal Q4 was $848 million, an increase of 4% from fiscal Q3 and down 32% year-over-year.

    第四財季存儲業務部門的收入為 8.48 億美元,比第三財季增長 4%,同比下降 32%。

  • For the fiscal year, SBU revenue was $3.8 billion, down 24% from fiscal 2018.

    本財年,SBU 收入為 38 億美元,比 2018 財年下降 24%。

  • And finally, revenue for the Embedded Business Unit was $705 million in fiscal Q4, up 1% from fiscal Q3 and down 24% from the prior year.

    最後,第四財季嵌入式業務部門的收入為 7.05 億美元,比第三財季增長 1%,比上年下降 24%。

  • For the fiscal year, EBU revenue was $3.1 billion, down 10% from fiscal 2018.

    本財年,EBU 收入為 31 億美元,比 2018 財年下降 10%。

  • The consolidated gross margin for fiscal Q4 was 30.6%, above our guidance range due to our strong execution, improving demand and slightly better pricing.

    第四財季的綜合毛利率為 30.6%,高於我們的指導範圍,原因是我們執行力強、需求改善和定價略好。

  • Q4 gross margins included approximately 200 basis point negative impact or approximately $100 million due to the underutilization charges at IMFT.

    由於 IMFT 的未充分利用費用,第四季度的毛利率包括約 200 個基點的負面影響或約 1 億美元。

  • Starting in fiscal Q1 and continuing for the foreseeable future, we expect to incur an underutilization impact of approximately $150 million per quarter, with about half the impact consisting of noncash items.

    從第一財季開始並在可預見的未來持續,我們預計每季度將產生約 1.5 億美元的未充分利用影響,其中約一半的影響由非現金項目組成。

  • Over time, as our 3D XPoint business ramps, this underutilization impact will be mitigated.

    隨著時間的推移,隨著我們 3D XPoint 業務的增長,這種未充分利用的影響將得到緩解。

  • But as you can expect, it takes time to commercialize a new breakthrough technology.

    但正如您所料,將一項新的突破性技術商業化需要時間。

  • Meanwhile, we will continue to look for ways to optimize our costs and will provide updates on material progress over time.

    同時,我們將繼續尋找優化成本的方法,並將隨著時間的推移提供有關重大進展的更新。

  • With respect to U.S. tariffs on imports from China, with continued mitigation, we were able to contain their impact on our consolidated gross margin in fiscal Q4 to less than 20 basis points.

    關於美國對中國進口產品徵收的關稅,通過持續緩解,我們能夠將其對第四財季綜合毛利率的影響控制在 20 個基點以下。

  • Operating expenses were $797 million and included some onetime expenses.

    運營費用為 7.97 億美元,其中包括一些一次性費用。

  • We continue to control our expenses tightly, and our SG&A as a percent of revenue is meaningfully lower than our competitors.

    我們繼續嚴格控制開支,我們的 SG&A 佔收入的百分比明顯低於我們的競爭對手。

  • Fiscal Q4 operating income was $694 million, representing 14% of revenue.

    第四財季營業收入為 6.94 億美元,佔收入的 14%。

  • Operating margin was down 38 percentage points year-over-year and down 9 percentage points from fiscal Q3.

    營業利潤率同比下降 38 個百分點,較第三財季下降 9 個百分點。

  • Our full fiscal 2019 operating income was $7.8 billion or 33% of our fiscal year revenue.

    我們 2019 財年的全部營業收入為 78 億美元,占我們財年收入的 33%。

  • Our fiscal Q4 effective tax rate was 8.8%.

    我們第四季度的有效稅率為 8.8%。

  • For the fiscal year, our effective tax rate was approximately 7.3%, which included the tax benefit we recorded in fiscal Q3.

    在本財年,我們的有效稅率約為 7.3%,其中包括我們在第三財季記錄的稅收優惠。

  • Going forward, we expect our tax rate to be mid to high single digits.

    展望未來,我們預計我們的稅率將達到中高個位數。

  • Non-GAAP earnings per share in fiscal Q4 were $0.56, down from $1.05 in fiscal Q3 and $3.53 in the year ago quarter.

    第四財季非美國通用會計準則每股收益為 0.56 美元,低於第三財季的 1.05 美元和去年同期的 3.53 美元。

  • For full fiscal 2019, our non-GAAP earnings per share was $6.35, down from $11.95 in fiscal 2018.

    對於整個 2019 財年,我們的非公認會計原則每股收益為 6.35 美元,低於 2018 財年的 11.95 美元。

  • Turning to cash flows and capital spending, we generated $2.2 billion in cash from operations in fiscal Q4, representing 46% of revenue.

    談到現金流和資本支出,我們在第四財季的運營中產生了 22 億美元的現金,佔收入的 46%。

  • For full fiscal 2019, cash from operations was $13.2 billion, representing 56% of revenue, down from $17.4 billion or 57% of revenue in fiscal 2018.

    2019 財年全年,運營現金為 132 億美元,佔收入的 56%,低於 2018 財年的 174 億美元,佔收入的 57%。

  • Cash flow margins remained almost flat due to effective working capital management.

    由於有效的營運資金管理,現金流量利潤率幾乎持平。

  • During the quarter, net capital spending was approximately $2 billion, down from $2.2 billion in the prior quarter.

    本季度,淨資本支出約為 20 億美元,低於上一季度的 22 億美元。

  • For full fiscal 2019, our net CapEx was $9.1 billion, up from $8.2 billion in fiscal 2018, but down meaningfully from the $10 billion to $11 billion plan we originally had entering fiscal 2019.

    對於整個 2019 財年,我們的淨資本支出為 91 億美元,高於 2018 財年的 82 億美元,但明顯低於我們最初進入 2019 財年的 100 億美元至 110 億美元的計劃。

  • We expect our fiscal 2020 net CapEx to be in the range of $7 billion to $8 billion, down meaningfully from fiscal 2019.

    我們預計我們 2020 財年的淨資本支出將在 70 億美元至 80 億美元之間,較 2019 財年顯著下降。

  • We expect that CapEx for buildings and back-end manufacturing will increase significantly from last year, while the front-end equipment CapEx will decline more than 30% year-on-year.

    我們預計建築和後端製造的資本支出將比去年大幅增加,而前端設備的資本支出將同比下降 30% 以上。

  • Looking at cash generation, we generated adjusted free cash flow of approximately $260 million in fiscal Q4 compared to $500 million in fiscal Q3 and $3.1 billion in the year ago quarter.

    在現金產生方面,我們在第四財季產生了約 2.6 億美元的調整後自由現金流,而第三財季為 5 億美元,去年同期為 31 億美元。

  • Adjusted free cash flow for fiscal 2019 was $4.1 billion, down from $9.2 billion in fiscal 2018.

    2019 財年調整後的自由現金流為 41 億美元,低於 2018 財年的 92 億美元。

  • We received notice for approximately $180 million of convertible note redemptions in the quarter, which will remove approximately 4 million shares from our ongoing share count in fiscal Q1.

    我們在本季度收到了約 1.8 億美元可轉換票據贖回的通知,這將從我們在第一財季的持續股票數量中刪除約 400 萬股。

  • For full fiscal 2019, we returned approximately $2.7 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks, representing 65% of free cash flow, at an average purchase price of $40.

    在整個 2019 財年,我們以回購的形式向股東返還了大約 27 億美元,佔自由現金流的 65%,平均購買價格為 40 美元。

  • Including these share repurchases and our convertible note redemptions, we reduced our average diluted share count by 80 million shares in fiscal 2019, representing 7% of shares outstanding.

    包括這些股票回購和我們的可轉換票據贖回,我們在 2019 財年將平均稀釋後的股票數量減少了 8000 萬股,佔已發行股票的 7%。

  • We remain committed to returning at least 50% of our annual free cash flow to shareholders in the form of share repurchases in the future.

    我們仍然致力於在未來以股票回購的形式將至少 50% 的年度自由現金流返還給股東。

  • Days of inventory was 131, down from 143 days in fiscal Q3.

    庫存天數為 131 天,低於第三財季的 143 天。

  • Inventory ended the quarter at $5.1 billion, increasing from $4.9 billion at the end of fiscal Q3.

    本季度末庫存為 51 億美元,高於第三財季末的 49 億美元。

  • We will continue to focus on reducing our days of inventory and expect to see further reduction in fiscal Q1.

    我們將繼續專注於減少庫存天數,並預計第一財季將進一步減少。

  • As mentioned before, we are seeing pockets of tight supply in certain parts of our business.

    如前所述,我們看到我們業務的某些部分供應緊張。

  • Our long-term normalized inventory target has increased over time to above 100 days as a result of greater process complexity and the broadening of our product portfolio to high-value solutions, such as SSDs that require longer assembly and test cycle time.

    我們的長期標準化庫存目標隨著時間的推移增加至 100 天以上,這是由於工藝複雜性提高以及我們的產品組合擴展到高價值解決方案,例如需要更長組裝和測試週期的 SSD。

  • Total cash ended the quarter at $9.2 billion, up quarter-over-quarter, largely as a result of our $1.75 billion investment-grade debt issuance.

    本季度末總現金為 92 億美元,環比增長,主要是由於我們發行了 17.5 億美元的投資級債券。

  • Our total debt increased to $5.9 billion.

    我們的總債務增加到 59 億美元。

  • Total liquidity ended fiscal Q4 at $13 billion.

    第四季度末總流動性為 130 億美元。

  • We are holding approximately $1.4 billion of liquidity for the acquisition of the IMFT joint venture expected in fiscal Q1 '20.

    我們持有大約 14 億美元的流動資金,用於收購預計在 20 財年第一季度的 IMFT 合資企業。

  • This acquisition will eliminate approximately $700 million of member debt financing and will be funded by drawing down $1.25 billion from our term loan facility secured in fiscal Q4.

    此次收購將消除約 7 億美元的成員債務融資,並將通過從我們在第四財季獲得的定期貸款融資中提取 12.5 億美元來提供資金。

  • Before moving on to guidance, I want to share some expected changes to our upcoming reporting.

    在繼續指導之前,我想分享一些對我們即將發布的報告的預期變化。

  • We continue to evaluate planned technology node transitions, capital spending and reuse rates for NAND equipment.

    我們將繼續評估計劃中的技術節點轉換、資本支出和 NAND 設備的重複使用率。

  • Based on our preliminary assessment, we anticipate changing the depreciable life of our NAND equipment from 5 to 7 years beginning in fiscal Q1 '20.

    根據我們的初步評估,我們預計從 20 財年第一季度開始,我們的 NAND 設備的折舊壽命將從 5 年更改為 7 年。

  • This change will reduce our depreciation expense included in cost of goods sold for Q1 by approximately $80 million and increasing to approximately $100 million to $150 million per quarter for the remainder of fiscal 2020.

    這一變化將使我們包含在第一季度銷售成本中的折舊費用減少約 8000 萬美元,並在 2020 財年剩餘時間內每季度增加到約 1 億至 1.5 億美元。

  • As a reminder, depreciable life for DRAM equipment is already 7 years.

    提醒一下,DRAM 設備的折舊壽命已經是 7 年。

  • Also starting in Q1, we expect to change how we report MCP revenue, which we currently include within NAND revenue.

    同樣從第一季度開始,我們預計將改變我們報告 MCP 收入的方式,我們目前將其包含在 NAND 收入中。

  • We will begin disaggregating MCP revenue into DRAM and NAND, which will reduce our reported NAND revenue and margins in FQ1 while increasing our DRAM revenue.

    我們將開始將 MCP 收入分解為 DRAM 和 NAND,這將減少我們在第一季度報告的 NAND 收入和利潤率,同時增加我們的 DRAM 收入。

  • We believe that this change will help improve the transparency of our DRAM and NAND businesses.

    我們相信這一變化將有助於提高我們 DRAM 和 NAND 業務的透明度。

  • Now turning to our financial outlook.

    現在轉向我們的財務前景。

  • As our portfolio strengthens and we improve our share in high-value segments, we're seeing growing demand for both DRAM and NAND and this is creating pockets of supply shortages, particularly in some leading-edge nodes and back-end manufacturing.

    隨著我們產品組合的加強和我們在高價值領域的份額的提高,我們看到對 DRAM 和 NAND 的需求不斷增長,這造成了一些供應短缺,特別是在一些領先的節點和後端製造中。

  • However, the market remains competitive and industry inventories continue to adjust to economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

    然而,市場仍然競爭激烈,行業庫存繼續根據經濟和地緣政治的不確定性進行調整。

  • Notwithstanding these challenges, we expect bit shipments for both DRAM and NAND to grow in fiscal Q1, with NAND increasing more than DRAM.

    儘管存在這些挑戰,我們預計 DRAM 和 NAND 的位出貨量將在第一財季增長,其中 NAND 的增長超過 DRAM。

  • With that in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for fiscal Q1 is as follows: We expect revenue to be in the range of $5 billion, plus or minus $200 million; gross margin to be in the range of 26.5%, plus or minus 150 basis points; and operating expenses to be approximately $780 million, plus or minus $25 million.

    考慮到這一點,我們對第一財季的非 GAAP 指導如下:我們預計收入將在 50 億美元上下兩億美元之間;毛利率為 26.5%,上下浮動 150 個基點;運營費用約為 7.8 億美元,上下浮動 2500 萬美元。

  • Based on a share count of approximately 1.13 billion fully diluted shares, we expect EPS to be $0.46, plus or minus $0.07.

    根據大約 11.3 億股完全稀釋後的股票數量,我們預計每股收益為 0.46 美元,上下浮動 0.07 美元。

  • Despite a variety of industry and trade-related challenges in fiscal 2019, Micron delivered strong financial results.

    儘管在 2019 財年面臨各種與行業和貿易相關的挑戰,美光仍實現了強勁的財務業績。

  • At our 2018 Analyst Day, we laid out how we believed Micron was structurally improved and able to weather the storm in even challenging periods for the industry.

    在 2018 年分析師日上,我們闡述了我們如何相信美光在結構上得到了改進,並且能夠在行業面臨挑戰的時期度過難關。

  • While we're not out of the woods, we are proud of our execution as we have moved through the current cycle.

    雖然我們還沒有走出困境,但我們為我們的執行感到自豪,因為我們已經度過了當前的周期。

  • We are exiting the fiscal year with a stronger product portfolio, deeper customer relationships and our highest liquidity and net cash position to date, and we have also made good progress on our share buyback program.

    我們以更強大的產品組合、更深入的客戶關係以及迄今為止最高的流動性和淨現金頭寸退出本財年,我們的股票回購計劃也取得了良好進展。

  • We are well positioned to emerge from the current cycle ready to capitalize on the secular growth trends driving our business.

    我們已經準備好從當前的周期中脫穎而出,準備好利用推動我們業務的長期增長趨勢。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay for concluding remarks.

    我現在將把電話轉給 Sanjay 做總結髮言。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Dave.

    謝謝你,戴夫。

  • Fiscal 2019 has been a solid year of accomplishments for the New Micron, as we continue to focus on structural improvements across a range of functions in the company, to take our performance to new heights.

    2019 財年是 New Micron 取得豐碩成果的一年,我們將繼續專注於公司一系列職能部門的結構改進,以將我們的業績提升到新的高度。

  • While we have made dramatic progress over the last couple of years, there is significant opportunity ahead of us to further improve our operations, drive product cost reductions, further improve engineering execution, build on our go-to-market strategy and initiatives, deepen customer engagements and enhance the core competitiveness of the company to best-in-class levels.

    雖然我們在過去幾年中取得了巨大的進步,但我們面前還有很大的機會來進一步改善我們的運營、推動降低產品成本、進一步改進工程執行、建立我們的上市戰略和計劃、深化客戶將公司的核心競爭力提升至一流水平。

  • As we look ahead, the long-term opportunities are exciting, and we are extremely enthusiastic about the momentum we have established at the New Micron.

    展望未來,長期機遇令人振奮,我們對在新美光建立的勢頭充滿熱情。

  • On October 24, we'll be hosting our second annual Micron Insight event, which will bring together leaders from across the industry to discuss how a world activated by data can transform the way we use information to enrich life and how memory and storage are vital to these efforts.

    10 月 24 日,我們將舉辦第二屆 Micron Insight 年度活動,該活動將匯集來自整個行業的領導者,討論數據激活的世界如何改變我們使用信息來豐富生活的方式,以及內存和存儲如何至關重要對這些努力。

  • We will be webcasting Micron Insight live from San Francisco, and I encourage you all to tune in.

    我們將在舊金山現場直播 Micron Insight,我鼓勵大家收聽。

  • We will now open for questions.

    我們現在開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Mark Delaney。

  • Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

    Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

  • So then to talk a little bit about your customers' inventory levels.

    那麼接下來談談您客戶的庫存水平。

  • One of the big concerns or debates in the financial community at the moment is whether the pickup in memory volumes that I think Micron has seen, is that mostly being driven by fundamentals or is this just potential inventory stocking because of some of the trade concerns?

    目前金融界最大的擔憂或爭論之一是,我認為美光已經看到內存量的回升,這主要是由基本面推動的,還是僅僅是由於一些貿易問題而導致的潛在庫存庫存?

  • And Sanjay, I think you maybe talked about a bit of both factors in your prepared comments and some potential inventory stocking but also inventory coming down in some important markets like data center.

    還有桑傑,我想你可能在準備好的評論中談到了這兩個因素和一些潛在的庫存庫存,還有一些重要市場(如數據中心)的庫存下降。

  • So maybe you can just kind of level set and put those things together and do you think the pickup in your business, is it primarily being driven by fundamentals or how much of this is maybe some of that inventory stocking because of trade concerns?

    所以也許你可以把這些東西放在一起,你認為你的業務的回升主要是由基本面推動的,還是有多少可能是由於貿易問題而導致的庫存?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • I think certainly the pickup in business is being driven by the industry fundamentals.

    我認為業務的回升當然是由行業基本面推動的。

  • I would just like to remind you that in the first half of calendar 2019 because of the inventory that the customers have built or had built up the demand to the producers was low yet the end-market demand for all applications continue to be robust.

    我想提醒您,在 2019 年上半年,由於客戶已經建立或已經建立對生產商的需求的庫存很低,但所有應用程序的終端市場需求仍然強勁。

  • And now as the customers have worked down their inventory to normal levels, the demand is coming back to the producers.

    現在,隨著客戶將庫存降至正常水平,需求又回到了生產商手中。

  • And as a result, you saw in our calendar Q, I mean, fiscal Q4 results our strong growth in DRAM bit as well as NAND.

    因此,您在我們的日曆 Q 中看到,我的意思是,第四財季導致我們在 DRAM 位和 NAND 方面的強勁增長。

  • And second half is the demand is back, the customer demand is back, and yes, there may be some level of inventory build in China due to the reasons that I've mentioned by certain customers, but I'll tell you that we do not think that, that inventory build is anywhere close to the kind of inventory build that had gone on in the second half of last year.

    下半年是需求回來了,客戶需求又回來了,是的,由於某些客戶提到的原因,中國可能會有一定程度的庫存增加,但我會告訴你,我們有不認為,庫存增加與去年下半年的庫存增加很接近。

  • So nowhere materially close to that level.

    所以在物質上沒有接近那個水平。

  • So overall, the industry environment in terms of demand return is certainly solid.

    因此,總體而言,需求回報方面的行業環境肯定是穩固的。

  • Certainly, in DRAM, there is still some supply, excess supply with the producers, but the inventory is improving fast.

    當然,在DRAM方面,還是有一些供應,生產商供應過剩,但庫存正在快速改善。

  • We talked about our inventory actually improving faster than what we perhaps anticipated some time ago and overall we even see some shortages in some leading-edge products, particularly on the DRAM side.

    我們談到我們的庫存實際上比我們前一段時間預期的要快得多,總體而言,我們甚至看到一些領先產品出現短缺,特別是在 DRAM 方面。

  • So overall, we think that industry inventory at the producers is being consumed at a rapid clip.

    因此,總體而言,我們認為生產商的行業庫存正在快速消耗。

  • The demand trends are back to normal levels.

    需求趨勢恢復到正常水平。

  • And especially when you look at the trends of through next year, 5G, you look at smartphone average capacities continuing to increase, both for NAND and DRAM, and cloud demand drivers continuing to be solid, new platforms, new CPU architectures being used that allow greater use and higher use of DRAM capacities as well as there are applications driving more DRAM and NAND.

    尤其是當您查看到明年 5G 的趨勢時,您會看到智能手機的平均容量持續增加,包括 NAND 和 DRAM,以及雲需求驅動因素繼續穩固,新平台、新 CPU 架構的使用允許DRAM 容量的更多使用和更高使用,以及驅動更多 DRAM 和 NAND 的應用程序。

  • So the demand trends, when I look at 2020, I believe that the industry demand/supply environment will be in a lot healthier place.

    所以需求趨勢,當我展望 2020 年時,我相信行業需求/供應環境將處於更健康的位置。

  • Yes, maybe calendar Q1 may have some cyclicality, but the industry fundamentals overall from demand/supply point of view I think in 2020 will be in a much healthier place.

    是的,也許第一季度日曆可能有一些週期性,但從需求/供應的角度來看,我認為整個行業基本面在 2020 年將處於更健康的位置。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Another way to look at this and kind of back it up mathematically is if you look at the year-over-year bit growth in the fourth quarter.

    另一種看待這一點並在數學上支持它的方法是,如果你看一下第四季度的同比增長。

  • It's only in the kind of 14% kind of range.

    它僅在 14% 的範圍內。

  • So that kind of backs up the idea that this is really about industry fundamentals more so than it is about stocking inventory.

    因此,這支持了這樣一種觀點,即這實際上與行業基本面有關,而不是與庫存有關。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Congratulations on the solid results given the macro uncertainty.

    鑑於宏觀不確定性,祝賀您取得了可靠的結果。

  • Sanjay, I just have several questions just around the guided gross margins for the fiscal first quarter.

    桑傑,關於第一財季的指導毛利率,我有幾個問題。

  • If you look at the incremental hit you keep getting from IMFT that, that's more than offset by kind of the change in depreciation and yet you're still kind of getting sort of a 400 basis point drop sequentially in gross margin on kind of flattish to up revenue.

    如果你看一下你從 IMFT 不斷獲得的增量衝擊,那已經被折舊的變化所抵消了,但你的毛利率仍然會按順序下降 400 個基點,基本持平到增加收入。

  • And I know you guys don't comment about future pricing, but can you talk about other puts and takes around mix that might be negatively impacting kind of the gross margin?

    而且我知道你們不會對未來的定價發表評論,但你能談談其他可能對毛利率產生負面影響的看跌期權組合嗎?

  • And I guess given that the incremental cost of IMFT is probably driven by you taking receipt of the whole joint venture in the month of November, why wouldn't that hit get higher as you go into the fiscal second quarter and have it for the full quarter?

    而且我想鑑於 IMFT 的增量成本可能是由您在 11 月份接收整個合資企業推動的,為什麼當您進入第二財季並全部擁有它時,這個打擊不會變得更高? 25美分硬幣?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So yes let me kind of walk through a little bit of the puts and takes.

    所以是的,讓我稍微介紹一下看跌期權。

  • Obviously, pricing is a factor in the expectations around gross margins for the first fiscal quarter.

    顯然,定價是第一財季毛利率預期的一個因素。

  • And of course, we don't talk necessarily about forward pricing.

    當然,我們不一定要談論遠期定價。

  • But the second piece is cost.

    但第二部分是成本。

  • And as Sanjay mentioned, our cost declines for fiscal '20 in total will be kind of high single digits.

    正如桑傑所提到的,我們在 20 財年的總成本下降幅度將達到個位數。

  • That's lower than the cost declines we got in fiscal 2019 versus fiscal 2018.

    這低於我們在 2019 財年與 2018 財年相比的成本下降。

  • And so we are seeing a slower rate of cost declines for DRAM and that's, of course, something we've indicated was coming given the complexities that we face and as we migrate nodes.

    因此,我們看到 DRAM 的成本下降速度較慢,當然,鑑於我們面臨的複雜性以及遷移節點,我們已經表明這一點即將到來。

  • And as we talked about, obviously, on the NAND side, we're going to have very minimal cost declines as we kind of transition to replacement gate.

    正如我們所談到的,顯然,在 NAND 方面,隨著我們過渡到替代門,我們的成本下降幅度將非常小。

  • So those are certainly factors in that.

    所以這些肯定是其中的因素。

  • And I would tell you that the first quarter cost declines are very minimal.

    我會告訴你,第一季度的成本下降幅度很小。

  • The third piece is mix.

    第三部分是混合。

  • If you look at the mix from just a move to high-value solutions that, of course, is positive, but what is overshadowing that is the mix of NAND and DRAM.

    如果您從只是轉向高價值解決方案的組合來看,這當然是積極的,但掩蓋的是 NAND 和 DRAM 的組合。

  • And of course, NAND has a lower gross margin than DRAM.

    當然,NAND 的毛利率低於 DRAM。

  • And we will see likely a higher mix of NAND next quarter, which will affect gross margins negatively.

    下個季度我們可能會看到更高的 NAND 組合,這將對毛利率產生負面影響。

  • And then as you pointed out, there's 2 kind of unusual items, I guess, in the quarter.

    然後正如你所指出的,我猜本季度有兩種不尋常的物品。

  • One is the change in the useful life of NAND equipment.

    一是NAND設備使用壽命的變化。

  • That will be positive, but more than half of that will be offset by underutilization expenses associated with IMFT.

    這將是積極的,但其中一半以上將被與 IMFT 相關的未充分利用費用所抵消。

  • So those are kind of all the puts and takes of gross margins.

    所以這些都是毛利率的所有看跌期權。

  • I think it's likely that it will be a little higher from Q1 to Q2 in terms of underutilization expenses, but it was somewhat in the noise.

    我認為從第一季度到第二季度的未充分利用費用可能會略高一些,但這有點吵鬧。

  • We might be a little bit lower than $150 million of underutilization expense in fiscal Q1 and we might be a little higher than that in fiscal Q2.

    我們在第一財季的未充分利用費用可能略低於 1.5 億美元,但可能比第二財季略高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Mitch Steves。

  • Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

    Mitchell Toshiro Steves - Analyst

  • I just wanted to have a poke again around the gross margin question that was just asked.

    我只是想再次討論一下剛剛提出的毛利率問題。

  • But one of the bigger questions I have was just your commentary about pricing getting better, but then you're talking about gross margins going down on a higher revenue base.

    但我遇到的一個更大的問題就是你對定價變得更好的評論,但你說的是毛利率在更高的收入基礎上下降。

  • So if you offset that with depreciation as well, I mean, does that imply that November quarter should be the bottom for gross margins or are you guys implying that February can also be down sequentially?

    因此,如果你也用折舊來抵消這一點,我的意思是,這是否意味著 11 月季度應該是毛利率的底部,或者你們是否暗示 2 月也可能連續下降?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Well, I think clearly we're talking about NAND getting better.

    好吧,我認為我們顯然在談論 NAND 變得更好。

  • And we are seeing the early signs in DRAM of kind of the fundamentals getting better, demand is coming back, inventories on our balance sheet and on the industry's balance sheets are coming down.

    我們看到 DRAM 的基本面有所好轉的早期跡象,需求正在回升,我們資產負債表和行業資產負債表上的庫存正在下降。

  • Of course, that hasn't gotten completely to where it needs to be.

    當然,這還沒有完全達到它需要的地方。

  • And also Sanjay mentioned in his prepared remarks the market continues to be a bit competitive.

    桑傑還在他準備好的講話中提到,市場仍然有點競爭。

  • And so we'll have to see when that, all those things come together and supply kind of aligns with demand to drive a more healthier market for DRAM.

    所以我們必須看看什麼時候,所有這些東西都聚集在一起,供應與需求保持一致,以推動更健康的 DRAM 市場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPM.

    我們的下一個問題來自 JPM 的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • On your fiscal '20 DRAM outlook for high single digits cost reductions versus fiscal '19, is that how we should think about your longer-term annualized cost down profile given the higher complexity, capital intensity that you outlined or are there some impacts from the pullback in utilizations, drawdown of your own inventories and/or maybe a slower 1Z transition that's impacting the cost down profile as well?

    關於您在 20 財年 DRAM 與 19 財年相比高個位數成本降低的前景,鑑於您概述的更高複雜性、資本密集度或是否存在一些影響,我們應該如何考慮您的長期年度化成本下降情況利用率回落、您自己的庫存減少和/或可能會影響成本下降的較慢的 1Z 過渡?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • We definitely have some underutilization expenses in DRAM.

    我們肯定在 DRAM 中有一些未充分利用的費用。

  • Certainly, we have that built into our expectations for the first fiscal quarter.

    當然,我們已經將這一點納入了我們對第一財季的預期。

  • It may last into the second fiscal quarter.

    它可能會持續到第二財季。

  • And so that certainly is an impact.

    所以這肯定是一種影響。

  • But I would tell you that over time, as complexity of these nodes goes up and as capital intensity goes up, the cost declines are going to become more challenging.

    但我會告訴你,隨著時間的推移,隨著這些節點的複雜性增加和資本密集度的增加,成本下降將變得更具挑戰性。

  • So the high single digit will probably not be something we can routinely do year-to-year.

    因此,高個位數可能不會是我們每年都能例行公事的事情。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • And I'll just add that we are certainly narrowing the cost gap in terms of DRAM production cost overall.

    我只想補充一點,我們肯定會縮小整體 DRAM 生產成本的成本差距。

  • 1Z node is a good example of Micron's leadership, being the first one to introduce the 1Z node with the smallest feature size in the industry and the result of cost improvement that we are making on DRAM as well as, of course, the high-value solutions that are driving higher mix on the NAND side is a major improvement, 2,500-plus basis point improvement in our EBITDA margins versus the competition compared to the past 2016 time frame.

    1Z 節點是美光領先的一個很好的例子,它是第一個推出業界最小特徵尺寸的 1Z 節點,也是我們在 DRAM 上進行成本改進的結果,當然還有高價值在 NAND 方面推動更高混合的解決方案是一項重大改進,與過去 2016 年的時間框架相比,我們的 EBITDA 利潤率與競爭對手相比提高了 2,500 多個基點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mark Newman with Bernstein.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Newman 和 Bernstein。

  • Mark C. Newman - Senior Research Analyst

    Mark C. Newman - Senior Research Analyst

  • You talk about inventory down quite a bit Q-on-Q.

    你談到庫存下降了相當多的 Q-on-Q。

  • You gave some numbers on that.

    你給出了一些數字。

  • Do you have an even more break down on how that compares DRAM versus NAND?

    您對 DRAM 與 NAND 的比較有什麼更詳細的說明嗎?

  • And then looking forward to next-gen technology, you commented that it's quite difficult transition to replacement gate NAND.

    然後期待下一代技術,您評論說過渡到替代門 NAND 非常困難。

  • Can you give an update on the timing for that, where you are on the 96 layers for your current generation in terms of percentage of the output and give a little bit more detail on the timing for the ramp of replacement gate.

    您能否提供有關此時間的更新,就輸出的百分比而言,您在當前一代的 96 層上,並提供有關更換門斜坡時間的更多細節。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So Dave will comment on your inventory part of the question, but let me just address your question on the 96 layers.

    因此,Dave 將對問題的庫存部分發表評論,但讓我僅針對 96 層解決您的問題。

  • As we have said before, 96-layer execution has gone very well with the company.

    正如我們之前所說,公司的 96 層執行非常順利。

  • In terms of yield ramp, 96-layer technology has given us the fastest yield ramp of any other NAND technologies in the past.

    在良率提升方面,96 層技術為我們提供了過去任何其他 NAND 技術中最快的良率提升。

  • So we are very proud of that accomplishment and 96-layer is continuing to ramp during the course of our fiscal year 2020.

    因此,我們為這一成就感到非常自豪,並且在 2020 財年期間,96 層將繼續增加。

  • In fact, 96-layer will be the major driver of our NAND bit growth in fiscal year 2020.

    事實上,96 層將是我們 2020 財年 NAND 位增長的主要驅動力。

  • As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, with respect to replacement gate, we have seen now functionality and yielding dies.

    正如我在準備好的評論中提到的,關於更換澆口,我們現在已經看到了功能和屈服模具。

  • We are certainly quite encouraged by that and continue to work on technology and product development.

    我們當然對此感到非常鼓舞,並繼續致力於技術和產品開發。

  • In fiscal year 2020, 64-layer and 96-layer will continue to be the workhorse technologies and our replacement gate technology, of course, will have a small mix in fiscal year '20 and for us as well.

    在 2020 財年,64 層和 96 層將繼續成為主力技術,我們的替代門技術當然會在 20 財年和我們之間有少量組合。

  • Keep in mind, our first replacement gate node, which will have small production in fiscal year '20, will be a rather limited node because we'll be deploying it across select set of products.

    請記住,我們的第一個替代門節點(將在 20 財年小批量生產)將是一個相當有限的節點,因為我們將在選定的產品集中部署它。

  • It's our second-generation node which will, of course, come in the subsequent fiscal year that will position us well and resume the year-over-year strong cost reductions for us.

    當然,這是我們的第二代節點,它將在下一財年到來,這將使我們處於有利地位,並為我們恢復同比強勁的成本降低。

  • But basically, the 96-layer will continue to ramp during fiscal year '20 for us.

    但基本上,對我們來說,96 層將在 20 財年繼續增加。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So on the inventory question.

    所以關於庫存問題。

  • So we had 143 days of inventory in the third quarter.

    所以我們在第三季度有 143 天的庫存。

  • That came down to 131 days in the fourth fiscal quarter.

    在第四財季,這一數字降至 131 天。

  • If you kind of break that out between DRAM and NAND, DRAM was meaningfully below that and NAND was meaningfully above that.

    如果你在 DRAM 和 NAND 之間進行區分,DRAM 明顯低於該值,而 NAND 明顯高於該值。

  • I would say in terms of days.

    我會說天數。

  • Obviously, in absolute dollars, DRAM has more inventory than NAND.

    顯然,以絕對美元計算,DRAM 的庫存比 NAND 多。

  • I would say, you've got to remember there are 2 reasons why inventory was building for NAND.

    我想說,你必須記住,為什麼要為 NAND 建立庫存有兩個原因。

  • It was building as we kind of slowed down our supply, but customers were working down their inventory.

    當我們放慢供應速度時,它正在建設中,但客戶正在減少他們的庫存。

  • Now the adjustments we've made to our supply, both in terms of capital spending reductions and in terms of utilization adjustments, we have brought our inventory down pretty meaningfully this quarter.

    現在,我們對供應進行了調整,無論是在資本支出減少方面還是在利用率調整方面,我們在本季度都大幅降低了庫存。

  • We expect to bring it down again meaningfully next quarter.

    我們預計下個季度將再次有意義地降低它。

  • On the NAND side, we have elevated levels of inventory, but that's more strategic.

    在 NAND 方面,我們的庫存水平有所提高,但這更具戰略意義。

  • What we're trying to do is have some built up inventory in fiscal '19 that we can use in fiscal '20 to support the RG transition because the replacement gate transition will not drive a lot of bit growth.

    我們正在嘗試做的是在 19 財年積累一些庫存,我們可以在 20 財年使用這些庫存來支持 RG 過渡,因為替換門過渡不會推動大量位增長。

  • And so in order to support the increased demand next year, we will have to utilize this inventory for that purpose.

    因此,為了支持明年增加的需求,我們將不得不為此目的利用這些庫存。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自於 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to hit on your commentary around DRAM and undergrowing the industry in calendar '19.

    我只是想談談您對 DRAM 和 19 年日曆中該行業發展不足的評論。

  • Within that, is that largely driven by Huawei, perhaps more aggressive competitors in certain markets, change in mix?

    其中,這主要是由華為推動的,也許是某些市場上更具侵略性的競爭對手,是否會改變組合?

  • Would love to hear your thoughts on that.

    很想听聽你對此的看法。

  • And then as we move into calendar '20, what are your expectations vis-à-vis the market for your market share?

    然後,隨著我們進入 20 年日曆,您對市場份額的期望是什麼?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So in terms of overall bits, with respect to DRAM growth in terms of revenue, I mean, it has primarily been impacted by the customer inventories that were built up last year for the first half.

    因此,就整體比特而言,就收入方面的 DRAM 增長而言,我的意思是,它主要受到去年上半年積累的客戶庫存的影響。

  • And our overall DRAM shipments are in line with overall the industry in this regard.

    在這方面,我們的整體 DRAM 出貨量與整個行業一致。

  • And I think what we said is that the industry demand mid-teens and our overall supply growth during the calendar '19 to be slightly below the industry, of course, as a result some of the underutilization actions that we have taken.

    我認為我們所說的是,在 19 年日曆期間,行業的需求和我們的整體供應增長略低於行業,當然,這是我們採取的一些未充分利用的行動的結果。

  • And of course, there is an impact of Huawei in terms of our overall business.

    當然,華為對我們的整體業務也有影響。

  • We have said before that compared to the levels that we anticipated before Huawei's placement on the entity listing, our revenue is lower.

    我們之前說過,與華為實體上市之前我們預期的水平相比,我們的收入較低。

  • And of course, we are very much focused on continuing to diversify our revenue base.

    當然,我們非常專注於繼續使我們的收入基礎多樣化。

  • But yes, I mean, the Huawei entity listing does have an effect on some of our shipments to the customer.

    但是,是的,我的意思是,華為實體清單確實對我們向客戶的一些發貨產生了影響。

  • I mean, some of our overall shipments in the market.

    我的意思是,我們在市場上的一些整體出貨量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Raji Gill with Needham & Co.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Co. 的 Raji Gill。

  • Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

    Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

  • You had mentioned that you did see some elevated inventory levels in the lower process node.

    您曾提到您確實在較低的流程節點中看到了一些升高的庫存水平。

  • I was wondering if you can kind of elaborate on that particular comment.

    我想知道您是否可以詳細說明該特定評論。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • This is really related to some of our overall production and mix.

    這確實與我們的一些整體生產和組合有關。

  • And some of the older nodes have lower demand compared to our total supply available and therefore, that's where we are primarily running underutilization on the DRAM side.

    與我們的可用總供應量相比,一些較舊的節點的需求較低,因此,這就是我們主要在 DRAM 方面未充分利用的地方。

  • So it really is about the overall demand and this is good inventory that will overall will get consumed over time.

    所以這真的是關於整體需求,這是一個很好的庫存,隨著時間的推移總體上會被消耗掉。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Analyst

  • I was wondering if you could help me parse out the CapEx guidance a little bit more in detail.

    我想知道您是否可以幫助我更詳細地解析資本支出指南。

  • I know last quarter relative to the $9.1 billion you did for the full year, you talked about roughly $2 billion for kind of cleanroom and facility kind of CapEx.

    我知道上個季度相對於你全年所做的 91 億美元,你談到了大約 20 億美元用於潔淨室和設施類型的資本支出。

  • Was that the case?

    是這樣嗎?

  • And I think on the basis of that, what is that kind of CapEx spend specifically embedded in your fiscal '20 guidance?

    我認為在此基礎上,您的 20 財年指導中專門嵌入的那種資本支出是什麼?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • It was a little bit lower than the $2 billion number, but certainly a meaningful part of our spend.

    這比 20 億美元的數字略低,但肯定是我們支出的重要組成部分。

  • And you could probably parse out from what Sanjay said.

    您可能可以從 Sanjay 所說的內容中解析出來。

  • We expect that number to increase in fiscal '20 and the opposite is we expect the front-end equipment spend to decrease in fiscal 2020 versus fiscal 2019.

    我們預計該數字將在 20 財年增加,相反的是,我們預計 2020 財年的前端設備支出將比 2019 財年減少。

  • We'll obviously make another investment in the back end and we're expecting that to be roughly similar to what we're spending or what we spent in fiscal 2019.

    我們顯然會在後端進行另一項投資,我們預計這與我們的支出或 2019 財年的支出大致相似。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

  • Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

    Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

  • Just wondering on the same CapEx line, I know you guys talked about equipment CapEx being down 30%.

    只是想知道在同一資本支出線上,我知道你們談到設備資本支出下降了 30%。

  • So looks like close to $5 billion for fiscal '20, just wondering what the split would be on NAND and DRAM.

    所以 20 財年看起來接近 50 億美元,只是想知道 NAND 和 DRAM 的拆分情況。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • We don't tend to break that out, but I guess I would just tell you that our plan is to reduce front-end equipment spend in both DRAM and NAND next year.

    我們不傾向於打破這一點,但我想我只想告訴你,我們的計劃是明年減少 DRAM 和 NAND 的前端設備支出。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

    我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Two follow-ups.

    兩個後續。

  • We talked about the demand trends are positive, but I want to get a better assessment of how do you see data centers.

    我們談到需求趨勢是積極的,但我想更好地評估您如何看待數據中心。

  • There has been some conversation in industry that data center demand is seasonal.

    業界一直在討論數據中心的需求是季節性的。

  • Some argue that it is better than seasonal.

    有人認為它比季節性更好。

  • Sanjay, I want to get your view, how do you see the data center demand for both SSDs and server DRAM is tracking?

    Sanjay,我想听聽您的看法,您如何看待數據中心對 SSD 和服務器 DRAM 的需求正在跟踪?

  • And in that context, I'm surprised with your NAND bit demand projection for next year.

    在這種情況下,我對你們明年的 NAND 位需求預測感到驚訝。

  • This is well below historical trend of near 40%.

    這遠低於近 40% 的歷史趨勢。

  • What do you attribute this NAND demand trend into 2020 which in my opinion is well below trend line.

    您認為 2020 年這種 NAND 需求趨勢是什麼,我認為這遠低於趨勢線。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So with respect to the NAND demand trend in calendar year 2020, I mean, just keep in mind that in calendar 2018 the industry grew by approximately 45%, in calendar year '19 again by about 45% or so, low 40s to 45%.

    因此,關於 2020 日曆年的 NAND 需求趨勢,我的意思是,請記住,在 2018 日曆年,該行業增長了約 45%,在 19 日曆年再次增長了約 45% 左右,低 40 到 45% .

  • And that then definitely, I mean, when you look at a multiyear CAGR, I think it does lead to calendar year '20 to be approximately in low 30s or in that range, high 20s to low 30s kind of range in terms of calendar year '20.

    那當然,我的意思是,當您查看多年復合年增長率時,我認為它確實會導致 20 年日曆年大約處於 30 年代低點或該範圍內,就日曆年而言,從 20 年代高到 30 年代低的範圍'20.

  • And I think what you have to realize is that with such aggressive pricing decline that had occurred in NAND over 2018 and 2019 time frame, elasticity definitely has kicked in substantially.

    而且我認為你必須意識到,隨著 NAND 在 2018 年和 2019 年時間框架內出現如此劇烈的價格下降,彈性肯定已經顯著發揮。

  • And as we said, pricing environment actually has started improving in NAND.

    正如我們所說,NAND 的定價環境實際上已經開始改善。

  • And some of the average capacity growth that you perhaps would have seen next year actually has been pulled in faster into this year as a result of some of these aggressive price declines that have occurred and have driven the usage of higher capacities in terms of increasing average capacities of SSDs, increasing the attach rate of SSDs as well as continuing to drive higher average capacities in the smartphone market as well.

    由於已經發生的一些激進的價格下跌,並推動了更高容量的使用,因此今年你可能會在明年看到的一些平均容量增長實際上已經加快到今年SSD 的容量,提高 SSD 的附加率,並繼續推動智能手機市場更高的平均容量。

  • So these are some of the factors that are absolutely playing an important role in terms of our assessment that for calendar year '20, the year-over-year bit growth will be high 20s to low 30s range.

    因此,就我們的評估而言,這些是絕對發揮重要作用的一些因素,即對於 20 年日曆年,比特幣的同比增長將在 20 多歲到 30 多歲的低範圍內。

  • Again, keep in mind that we still are a few months away from next calendar year and we, of course, will continue to assess the overall industry demand trend, but this is our latest projection on that.

    同樣,請記住,我們距離下一個日曆年還有幾個月的時間,當然,我們將繼續評估整個行業的需求趨勢,但這是我們對此的最新預測。

  • Your first question was around cloud and let me just point out that cloud definitely demand grew nicely for us on the DRAM side in FQ4, strong demand increase there.

    你的第一個問題是關於雲的,我只想指出,在第四季度,我們在 DRAM 方面的雲需求肯定增長良好,那裡的需求增長強勁。

  • And yes, the cloud demand from time to time can be somewhat lumpy.

    是的,雲需求有時會有些不穩定。

  • However, overall, demand growth trends on the cloud side continue to be solid.

    然而,總體而言,雲方面的需求增長趨勢繼續穩固。

  • In fact, we see cloud demand consumption, both for DRAM as well as for SSDs continue to be higher than the average of the respective DRAM and the NAND industries.

    事實上,我們看到 DRAM 和 SSD 的雲需求消耗繼續高於各自 DRAM 和 NAND 行業的平均水平。

  • So overall, cloud, again, new architectures, new CPU platforms that are really enabling more channels as well as usage of higher density of DRAMs as well as again, as I spoke earlier, the trend of AI applications, all of this is driving greater usage of memory and storage in cloud.

    總體而言,雲,再次,新架構,新 CPU 平台,真正啟用了更多通道以及更高密度的 DRAM 的使用,正如我之前所說,人工智能應用的趨勢,所有這些都在推動更大的發展雲中內存和存儲的使用。

  • So cloud, we see as absolutely strong.

    所以雲,我們認為是絕對強大的。

  • Cloud customers' inventories have normalized and it's back to normal levels.

    雲客戶的庫存已經正常化並恢復到正常水平。

  • Other than any aspects perhaps in China, as I talked about, of maybe some element of strategic inventory build by certain customers.

    正如我所談到的,除了可能在中國的任何方面之外,可能是某些客戶建立的戰略庫存的某些要素。

  • But overall, the cloud demand trends are solid.

    但總體而言,雲需求趨勢穩健。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

  • Ambrish Srivastava - MD of Semiconductor Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Ambrish Srivastava - MD of Semiconductor Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • Sorry to get back to NAND for fiscal '20 and I just wanted to reconcile the comments you made and I wanted to make sure I'm walking away with the right take away, is that you have limited cost down.

    很抱歉在 20 財年回到 NAND,我只是想調和您所做的評論,並且我想確保我走的正確,是因為您降低的成本有限。

  • And then you talked about very low gross margin.

    然後你談到了非常低的毛利率。

  • And you're also selling from already build inventory.

    而且您還從已經建立的庫存中進行銷售。

  • So what's the trade-off between all these factors as I compare your profitability in NAND versus competition in fiscal '20?

    那麼,當我比較您在 NAND 的盈利能力與 20 財年的競爭時,所有這些因素之間的權衡是什麼?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So I think in fiscal '20, the main focus for us on NAND will be to continue to increase the mix of high-value solutions.

    所以我認為在 20 財年,我們對 NAND 的主要關注點將是繼續增加高價值解決方案的組合。

  • I think in mobile, you have seen us increase managed NAND solutions in terms of share gains substantially.

    我認為在移動領域,您已經看到我們在份額收益方面大幅增加了託管 NAND 解決方案。

  • And I reported in my prepared remarks on the tremendous progress that we have made with our mobile business.

    我在準備好的評論中報告了我們在移動業務方面取得的巨大進展。

  • And most of it driven by the progress on the managed NAND side.

    其中大部分是由託管 NAND 方面的進展推動的。

  • And we plan to continue to increase that part of the business in fiscal year 2020.

    我們計劃在 2020 財年繼續增加這部分業務。

  • I also spoke about SSDs.

    我還談到了 SSD。

  • SSD was certainly a headwind in terms of share opportunities for us in fiscal year '19.

    就我們在 19 財年的分享機會而言,SSD 無疑是一個逆風。

  • And as we now have expanded our portfolio of NVMe solutions actually have introduced our first NVMe solutions during fiscal year '19 now.

    由於我們現在已經擴展了我們的 NVMe 解決方案組合,實際上已經在 19 財年推出了我們的第一個 NVMe 解決方案。

  • We can leverage those solutions to expand our opportunities in fiscal year 2020.

    我們可以利用這些解決方案在 2020 財年擴大我們的機會。

  • And we certainly look forward to resuming gaining share in SSD on fiscal year '20.

    我們當然期待在 20 財年恢復在 SSD 中的份額。

  • So I think that those are the important pieces of our strategy of continuing to drive healthier revenue mix of NAND in fiscal year 2020.

    因此,我認為這些是我們在 2020 財年繼續推動更健康的 NAND 收入組合戰略的重要組成部分。

  • And of course, we are extremely focused on cost reductions on assembly, test and nonmemory BOM as well which are important factors particularly when it comes to products like SSDs or multichip packages, et cetera.

    當然,我們非常注重降低組裝、測試和非內存 BOM 的成本,這些都是重要因素,尤其是在涉及 SSD 或多芯片封裝等產品時。

  • And we are making good progress on cost reductions on nonmemory part of the BOM as well.

    我們也在降低 BOM 的非內存部分的成本方面取得了良好進展。

  • So these are all opportunities for us in fiscal year '20, but no question that at the die level our cost reduction capabilities will be overall limited in terms of the cost reductions due to the RG transition that we talked about earlier.

    因此,這些都是我們在 20 財年的機會,但毫無疑問,由於我們之前談到的 RG 過渡,我們的成本降低能力總體上將受到限制。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our final question will come from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的最後一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I wonder if you could talk about if your forecasted demand will accelerate next year on the DRAM side.

    我想知道您是否可以談談您預測的明年 DRAM 方面的需求是否會加速。

  • Can you kind of break that down between units and content and just generally what's your expectation for DRAM content for smartphones and servers next year?

    您能否將其分解為單位和內容,以及您對明年智能手機和服務器的 DRAM 內容的總體預期?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • I think on the smartphone side, the average DRAM content if you look at it this year, it increased by nearly 25%, slightly above 3 gigabyte was the average capacity.

    我認為在智能手機方面,如果你看一下今年的平均 DRAM 內容,它增加了近 25%,略高於 3 GB 的平均容量。

  • Last year, expected to be in calendar year '19 around 4 and a pretty similar double-digit gains continuing.

    去年,預計將在 '19 日曆年 4 左右,並且繼續保持非常相似的兩位數增長。

  • 5G, if you look at Mobile World Congress, phones that were introduced there were 8-gigabyte and 12-gigabyte DRAM density in those phones.

    5G,如果你看看移動世界大會,那些手機中推出的手機分別有 8 GB 和 12 GB DRAM 密度。

  • So as 5G phones start selling in the marketplace, some of those phones are already introduced in the market today in some parts of the world and this will continue to build momentum during calendar year '20 and years beyond.

    因此,隨著 5G 手機開始在市場上銷售,其中一些手機今天已經在世界某些地區推出市場,這將在 20 日曆年及以後繼續形成勢頭。

  • Those phones will also require more DRAM.

    這些手機還需要更多的 DRAM。

  • And again, the phones are becoming more and more feature-rich.

    再一次,手機的功能越來越豐富。

  • More AI applications are being built into the smartphones today and rich video and imaging capability and a lot more intelligence behind all those applications.

    今天的智能手機中內置了更多的人工智能應用程序,豐富的視頻和成像功能以及所有這些應用程序背後的更多智能。

  • They require more DRAM as well.

    它們也需要更多的 DRAM。

  • So looking at next year, we will certainly be seeing continuing average capacity increases next year as well.

    因此,展望明年,我們肯定會看到明年的平均產能持續增長。

  • In fact, in calendar year 2020, if you look at industry projections, average capacity is expected to increase another 20% next year going to something closer to 5-gigabyte per smartphone.

    事實上,在 2020 日曆年,如果你看一下行業預測,明年平均容量預計將再增加 20%,達到每部智能手機接近 5GB 的水平。

  • But as I said before, the DRAM is not only about smartphone.

    但正如我之前所說,DRAM 不僅僅是智能手機。

  • It's other applications related to server as well where the average content continues to increase as well as the average content continues to increase in PCs as well with applications such as gaming driving higher need for more DRAM.

    與服務器相關的其他應用程序以及平均內容繼續增加以及 PC 中的平均內容繼續增加以及遊戲等應用程序推動了對更多 DRAM 的更高需求。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Thank you for participating.

    感謝您的參與。

  • You may now all disconnect.

    您現在可以全部斷開連接。