美光科技 (MU) 2005 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

    下午好,女士們,先生們。

  • My name is Jason, and I will be your conference facilitator today.

    我叫傑森,今天我將成為您的會議主持人。

  • At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Micron Technology fourth-quarter and fiscal year-end 2005 conference call.

    在此,我想歡迎大家參加美光科技 2005 年第四季度和財年末的電話會議。

  • All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

    所有線路都已靜音,以防止任何背景噪音。

  • After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

    演講者發言後,將進入問答環節。 (操作員說明)。

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Kipp Bedard.

    現在,我很高興將發言權交給您的主持人 Kipp Bedard。

  • Sir, you may begin your conference.

    先生,您可以開始您的會議了。

  • Kipp Bedard - IR

    Kipp Bedard - IR

  • Thank you, Jason.

    謝謝你,傑森。

  • I'd like to also welcome everyone to Micron Technology's fourth-quarter and fiscal year-end 2005 financial release conference call.

    我還想歡迎大家參加美光科技公司 2005 年第四季度和財政年度末財務發布電話會議。

  • On the call today and joining us remotely is Steve Appleton, Chairman, CEO and President.

    今天電話會議並遠程加入我們的是董事長、首席執行官兼總裁史蒂夫·阿普爾頓。

  • In the room with me is Mr. Bill Stover, Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer;

    與我同在一個房間的是財務副總裁兼首席財務官 Bill Stover 先生;

  • Mike Sadler, Vice President of Worldwide Sales; and Mark Durcan, Chief Technical Officer and Vice President of R&D.

    Mike Sadler,全球銷售副總裁;以及首席技術官兼研發副總裁 Mark Durcan。

  • This conference call, including audio and slides, is also available on Micron's homepage on the Internet at Micron.com.

    本次電話會議,包括音頻和幻燈片,也可以在 Micron 的互聯網主頁 Micron.com 上找到。

  • If you have not had an opportunity to review the fourth-quarter 2005 financial press release, it is available on our website again at Micron.com.

    如果您沒有機會查看 2005 年第四季度財務新聞稿,請再次訪問我們的網站 Micron.com。

  • Our call will be approximately 60 minutes in length.

    我們的通話時間約為 60 分鐘。

  • There will be a taped audio replay of this call available later this evening at 5:30 PM daylight savings time.

    今晚晚些時候,夏令時下午 5:30 將提供這次通話的錄音重播。

  • You may reach that by dialing 973-341-3080, using a confirmation code of 6146538.

    您可以使用確認碼 6146538 撥打 973-341-3080 來實現。

  • This replay will run through Thursday, October 6, 2005 at 5:30 PM again daylight savings time.

    此重播將在 2005 年 10 月 6 日星期四下午 5:30 再次進行夏令時。

  • A webcast replay will be available on the Company's website until September 29, 2006.

    2006 年 9 月 29 日之前,公司網站上將提供網絡廣播重播。

  • We encourage you to monitor our website at Micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the Company, including information on the various financial conferences that we will be attending.

    我們鼓勵您在整個季度監控我們的網站 Micron.com,以獲取有關公司的最新信息,包括我們將參加的各種財務會議的信息。

  • During the course of this call, we may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the Company and the industry.

    在本次電話會議期間,我們可能會就公司和行業的未來事件或未來財務業績做出預測或其他前瞻性陳述。

  • We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions, and that actual events or results may differ materially.

    我們希望提醒您,此類陳述是預測,實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

  • We refer you to the documents the Company files on a consolidated basis from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the Company's most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q.

    我們建議您參考公司不時向證券交易委員會提交的綜合文件,特別是公司最近的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格。

  • These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause the actual results for the Company on a consolidated basis to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements.

    這些文件包含並確定了可能導致公司在綜合基礎上的實際結果與我們的預測或前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異的重要因素。

  • These certain factors can be found on the Company's website.

    這些特定因素可以在公司網站上找到。

  • Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements.

    儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的,但我們不能保證未來的結果、活動水平、業績或成就。

  • We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of the presentation to conform these statements to actual results.

    我們沒有義務在演示日期之後更新任何前瞻性陳述,以使這些陳述符合實際結果。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call now over to Mr. Bill Stover.

    有了這個,我想現在把電話轉給比爾斯托弗先生。

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • Thanks, Kipp.

    謝謝,基普。

  • I'll first go over summary financial results for the fiscal year and the fourth quarter ended September 1st for those listeners, who may not yet have access to our press release.

    我將首先為那些可能無法訪問我們的新聞稿的聽眾回顧本財年和截至 9 月 1 日的第四季度的財務業績摘要。

  • For the fiscal year, net sales totaled $4.9 billion, and the Company recorded net income of $188 million or $0.29 per diluted share.

    本財年,淨銷售額總計 49 億美元,公司錄得淨收入 1.88 億美元或每股攤薄收益 0.29 美元。

  • These results broadly reflect the fruit of several years' diversification and R&D investment efforts.

    這些結果大致反映了幾年多元化和研發投資努力的成果。

  • One example of our success is our CMOS imaging business, which grew 200% year over year to become the leading CMOS image sensor provider in the industry and our highest gross margin product line.

    我們成功的一個例子是我們的 CMOS 成像業務,該業務同比增長 200%,成為業內領先的 CMOS 圖像傳感器供應商和我們最高毛利率的產品線。

  • The balance sheet reflects significant improvement over just a quarter ago.

    資產負債表反映了僅在一個季度前的顯著改善。

  • Since third-quarter end, Micron has reduced its total debt by over $125 million and reduced total inventory by approximately $50 million.

    自第三季度末以來,美光已將其總債務減少了超過 1.25 億美元,並將總庫存減少了約 5000 萬美元。

  • During our third-quarter conference call, we communicated that we had tolerance for the inventory build and finished goods of PC DRAM.

    在我們的第三季度電話會議中,我們表示我們對 PC DRAM 的庫存構建和成品有容忍度。

  • Our market assessment was validated during the fourth quarter as seasonal demand indeed did allow us to draw down inventories at better pricing than was available earlier in the year.

    我們的市場評估在第四季度得到了驗證,因為季節性需求確實使我們能夠以比今年早些時候更好的價格減少庫存。

  • For the fourth quarter, net sales totaled $1.26 billion, and the Company recorded net income of 43 million or $0.07 per diluted share.

    第四季度,淨銷售額總計 12.6 億美元,公司錄得淨收入 4300 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.07 美元。

  • In the quarter, our CMOS sensors and PSRAMs each achieved 40% growth quarter over quarter, and our NAND flash business grew five-fold.

    本季度,我們的 CMOS 傳感器和 PSRAM 均實現了 40% 的環比增長,我們的 NAND 閃存業務增長了五倍。

  • Gross margin for the year came in at 23%.

    全年毛利率為 23%。

  • And as you can see from the chart, the fourth quarter rebounded to 22%.

    從圖表中可以看出,第四季度反彈至 22%。

  • Gross margin improvement in the fourth quarter was directly attributable to further product mix shifts to image sensors and specialty DRAM and products, including pseudo-static and synchronous DRAM and a relative stability of average selling prices in a period in which the Company achieved significant cost reductions.

    第四季度毛利率的改善直接歸因於產品組合進一步轉向圖像傳感器和特種 DRAM 和產品,包括偽靜態和同步 DRAM,以及公司實現顯著成本降低期間平均售價的相對穩定.

  • The gross margin on TECH Semiconductor products was slightly lower than the overall reported gross margin of 22% for the fourth quarter.

    TECH Semiconductor 產品的毛利率略低於第四季度報告的整體毛利率 22%。

  • That's a significant improvement in margin on TECH products, which resulted from the lag pricing arrangement and increased average selling prices for the mix of products they supply.

    這是 TECH 產品利潤率的顯著提高,這是由於滯後定價安排和他們供應的產品組合的平均售價增加所致。

  • Selling, general and administrative expenses have stayed in the 85 to $90 million band throughout fiscal 2005.

    整個 2005 財年,銷售、一般和管理費用一直保持在 85 到 9000 萬美元之間。

  • We expect a quarterly run rate in 2006 to be between 85 and $95 million, in part influenced by the effect of stock option expensing, which took effect at the beginning of our fiscal 2006 year.

    我們預計 2006 年的季度運行率將在 85 到 9500 萬美元之間,部分受到股票期權費用的影響,該費用在我們 2006 財年年初生效。

  • Research and development expense for the fourth quarter was $151 million, the run rate that held for most of fiscal 2005 as an overall reduction of $150 million comparing 2005 to fiscal 2004.

    第四季度的研發費用為 1.51 億美元,與 2005 財年相比 2004 財年總體減少了 1.5 億美元,這是 2005 財年大部分時間的運行率。

  • Future R&D expenses will vary significantly with the number of wafers dedicated to new device development and qualification and likely range in the near-term between 150 and $175 million.

    未來的研發費用將隨著專用於新設備開發和認證的晶圓數量而有很大差異,近期可能在 150 至 1.75 億美元之間。

  • From this slide, you can see that cash flow provided by operations for the fiscal year improved again relative to the prior year.

    從這張幻燈片中,您可以看到本財年運營提供的現金流相對於上一年再次有所改善。

  • The improvement reflects our successful diversification into specialty DRAM and CMOS image sensors, and capital spending for fiscal 2005 came in at about 1.3 billion.

    這一改進反映了我們在特種 DRAM 和 CMOS 圖像傳感器領域的成功多元化,2005 財年的資本支出約為 13 億美元。

  • This early in fiscal 2006, our forecast for capital spending is a range between 1 billion and 1.5 billion.

    在 2006 財年初,我們對資本支出的預測在 10 億到 15 億之間。

  • As of year end, Micron had cash and investment balances approximating $1.3 billion; total debt declined to 1.17 billion at fiscal year end.

    截至年底,美光的現金和投資餘額約為 13 億美元;財政年度末總債務降至 11.7 億美元。

  • During the fourth quarter, we repaid the remaining $100 million balance of a $210 million subordinated note that was scheduled due in September 2005.

    在第四季度,我們償還了原定於 2005 年 9 月到期的 2.1 億美元次級票據的剩餘 1 億美元餘額。

  • Call protection on our $632 million of convertible notes expired in February 2006.

    我們 6.32 億美元可轉換票據的贖回保護於 2006 年 2 月到期。

  • Those notes, which are due in 2010, are convertible into common stock at a conversion price of $11.79 per share.

    這些票據將於 2010 年到期,可按每股 11.79 美元的轉換價格轉換為普通股。

  • I'll turn our commentary over to Mike.

    我會把我們的評論交給邁克。

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • Thanks, Bill.

    謝謝,比爾。

  • Heading out of the quarter, we assumed we'd see an early seasonal boost from computers and cell phones, the primary driver of the demand for our semiconductor components.

    在本季度末,我們假設我們會看到計算機和手機的早期季節性增長,這是我們半導體組件需求的主要驅動力。

  • With a quarter now behind us, I would say that things unfolded just about as expected.

    現在已經落後了四分之一,我想說事情的發展與預期的差不多。

  • The demand strength did result in increased commodity DRAM prices off the lows observed in the prior quarter.

    需求強勁確實導致商品 DRAM 價格從上一季度的低點上漲。

  • We saw relative price stability and enhanced gross margins across the balance of the product portfolio.

    我們看到產品組合餘額的相對價格穩定和毛利率提高。

  • We had another strong quarter of executing on our goals of growing business in mobile phones, server and consumer electronic markets with a mild reduction in dependence on the commoditized desktop and notebook personal computer markets.

    我們在手機、服務器和消費電子市場增長業務的目標上又實現了一個強勁的季度,對商品化台式機和筆記本個人電腦市場的依賴略有下降。

  • We should expect this theme to continue moving forward.

    我們應該期待這個主題繼續向前發展。

  • We achieved sequential megabyte shipment growth of about 30% relative to the prior quarter.

    與上一季度相比,我們實現了約 30% 的連續兆字節出貨量增長。

  • Without a healthy PC-driven demand environment, it would not have been possible for us to achieve this growth in conjunction with the realization of a commodity DRAM price-per-bit increase.

    如果沒有健康的 PC 驅動的需求環境,我們就不可能在實現商品 DRAM 每比特價格上漲的同時實現這一增長。

  • Most industry experts are projecting PC unit growth to exceed 10% in calendar 2005.

    大多數行業專家預計 PC 單位在 2005 年的增長率將超過 10%。

  • Our customers are forecasting DRAM demand increases, driven both by unit growth and accelerating memory content per system.

    我們的客戶預測 DRAM 需求將增長,這得益於單位增長和每個系統內存內容的加速。

  • In summary, we are quite pleased with the DRAM demand that is being created by the PC manufacturers and their end customers.

    總之,我們對 PC 製造商及其最終客戶創造的 DRAM 需求感到非常滿意。

  • We are in new territory in the computing market with respect to multiple memory interfaces concurrently driving substantial DRAM demand.

    在多個內存接口同時推動大量 DRAM 需求方面,我們處於計算市場的新領域。

  • In years past, the model called for a rapid wholesale transition from one architecture to the next with very little overlap and demand.

    在過去的幾年裡,該模型要求從一種架構快速整體過渡到另一種架構,幾乎沒有重疊和需求。

  • While there appears to be no question that the mainstream is headed towards the DDR2 interface, there continues to be significant demand for both synchronous DRAMs and DDR architectures from the computing market.

    雖然主流似乎毫無疑問正在走向 DDR2 接口,但計算市場對同步 DRAM 和 DDR 架構的需求仍然很大。

  • As we look out on horizon of processor and chipset roadmaps, this segmented demand should sustain for sometime into the future.

    當我們展望處理器和芯片組路線圖時,這種細分需求應該會持續到未來的某個時間。

  • We're pleased with this situation and believe that it plays into our strength as one of the few DRAM providers with an expansive portfolio that covers the three architectures across several densities of components and modules.

    我們對這種情況感到滿意,並相信它發揮了我們作為少數 DRAM 供應商之一的優勢,該供應商擁有廣泛的產品組合,涵蓋了多種組件和模塊密度的三種架構。

  • These are exciting times for us in the mobile phone arena.

    在手機領域,這對我們來說是激動人心的時刻。

  • The market is expanding in terms of unit volumes and a wide variety of applications being enabled in mobile handsets -- is creating more demand for semiconductor content from Micron.

    市場在單位數量和手機中啟用的各種應用方面正在擴大 - 正在創造對美光半導體內容的更多需求。

  • The camera-enabled phone penetration rate will approach 50% this year, and we have become the largest image sensor shareholder supporting this boom.

    今年帶攝像頭的手機滲透率將接近50%,我們已成為支持這一熱潮的最大圖像傳感器股東。

  • We're now engaged commercially and growing share with every major mobile handset maker in the world.

    我們現在與世界上每一個主要的手機製造商進行商業合作,並且份額不斷增長。

  • Our customers are quite pleased with the image quality being enabled by our silicon and the commercial success that is being achieved as a result of having access to our technology and operational infrastructure.

    我們的客戶對我們的芯片實現的圖像質量以及由於使用我們的技術和運營基礎設施而取得的商業成功感到非常滿意。

  • We are proud of our achievements in fiscal 2005 with the imaging products and technology.

    我們為 2005 財年在影像產品和技術方面取得的成就感到自豪。

  • As I mentioned, we are now the number one shareholder.

    正如我所提到的,我們現在是第一大股東。

  • We believe we are the only major provider of CMOS sensors that is currently growing share.

    我們相信我們是目前市場份額不斷增長的唯一主要 CMOS 傳感器供應商。

  • We have demonstrated the industry's smallest pixels at 1.7 Micron and are shipping sensors with 2.2 Micron pixels.

    我們已經展示了業界最小的 1.7 微米像素,並且正在運送具有 2.2 微米像素的傳感器。

  • We have established a solid foundation, not only in the mobile phone market but also in consumer products, medical applications, and in the automotive industry.

    我們已經奠定了堅實的基礎,不僅在手機市場,而且在消費產品、醫療應用和汽車行業。

  • Our model of drafting image sensor production off the memory process technology is proving to be efficient from both an R&D and capital deployment standpoint.

    從研發和資本部署的角度來看,我們從內存工藝技術中起草圖像傳感器生產的模型被證明是有效的。

  • The family of low-power DRAM products inclusive of cellular RAM is complementary to our image sensors in mobile phone and other handheld applications, such as digital still cameras and personal digital assistants.

    包括蜂窩 RAM 在內的低功耗 DRAM 產品系列與我們在手機和其他手持應用(例如數碼相機和個人數字助理)中的圖像傳感器相得益彰。

  • As customers strive to simplify their supply networks, we offer them the advantage of one-stop shopping for both imaging and memory needs.

    隨著客戶努力簡化他們的供應網絡,我們為他們提供一站式購物的優勢,以滿足成像和內存需求。

  • As new applications are being enabled in mobile phones that require large amounts of memory, our ability to offer both memory and imaging chips puts us in a unique position to provide value and competitive advantage to our customers in this space.

    隨著需要大量內存的手機啟用新的應用程序,我們提供內存和成像芯片的能力使我們處於獨特的位置,可以為我們在這個領域的客戶提供價值和競爭優勢。

  • As we have mentioned in past sessions, we completed our commercial entry into the mass storage NAND/Flash business and saw our first quarter of significant revenue and margin contribution from these products.

    正如我們在過去的會議中提到的,我們完成了大容量存儲 NAND/Flash 業務的商業進入,並看到我們第一季度從這些產品中獲得了可觀的收入和利潤貢獻。

  • Demand for Flash is explosive and being driven by USB drives, detachable memory cards, solid-state MP3 players, mobile phones and a variety of other consumer electronic products.

    閃存需求呈爆炸式增長,受到 USB 驅動器、可拆卸存儲卡、固態 MP3 播放器、手機和各種其他消費電子產品的推動。

  • The Flash opportunity is large, growing rapidly and is an ideal means for Micron to effectively leverage both the capital and research and development spending taking place in the DRAM business.

    閃存機會巨大,增長迅速,是美光有效利用 DRAM 業務中的資本和研發支出的理想手段。

  • From our vantage point, the end markets are quite healthy in terms of end customer demand with both the PC and cell phone markets again growing double-digit percentages this calendar year.

    從我們的角度來看,終端市場在終端客戶需求方面相當健康,PC 和手機市場在本日曆年再次以兩位數的百分比增長。

  • The products that our customers are developing and bringing to market continue to gain momentum in terms of richness of semiconductor content, in particular, content that fits nicely into Micron's product portfolio.

    我們的客戶正在開發並推向市場的產品在半導體內容的豐富性方面繼續獲得動力,特別是與美光產品組合完美契合的內容。

  • As each quarter goes by, we are making more progress toward enabling a richer mix of Micron revenues into what we believe can be sustainably higher margin markets.

    隨著每個季度的流逝,我們在將更豐富的美光收入組合到我們認為可以持續提高利潤率的市場方面取得了更大的進展。

  • Thanks for your continued support, and I will turn it back to Kipp.

    感謝您一直以來的支持,我會將其轉回給 Kipp。

  • Kipp Bedard - IR

    Kipp Bedard - IR

  • Thanks, Mike.

    謝謝,邁克。

  • We would now like to take questions from callers.

    我們現在想回答來電者的問題。

  • Two reminders please, Steve is joining us remotely, so I will be directing more questions than normal.

    請提醒兩次,史蒂夫正在遠程加入我們,所以我將提出比平時更多的問題。

  • Secondly, if you're using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset when asking questions so that we can hear you clearly.

    其次,如果您使用的是免提電話,請在提問時拿起聽筒,以便我們清楚地聽到您的聲音。

  • With that, we would like to open it to questions.

    有了這個,我們想提出問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

    (操作員說明)。

  • Adam Parker, Sanford Bernstein.

    亞當·帕克,桑福德·伯恩斯坦。

  • Adam Parker - Analyst

    Adam Parker - Analyst

  • Just one point of clarity and a question.

    只有一點清楚和一個問題。

  • Bill, did you say that the gross margin on TECH was lower than the overall corporate average but above the commodity PC DRAM you produced during the quarter?

    比爾,您是否說 TECH 的毛利率低於整體公司平均水平,但高於您在本季度生產的商品 PC DRAM?

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • Yes, the statement we made was slightly below the indicated 22% overall gross margin for the fourth quarter and certainly higher than the core DRAM.

    是的,我們所做的聲明略低於第四季度 22% 的整體毛利率,當然高於核心 DRAM。

  • Adam Parker - Analyst

    Adam Parker - Analyst

  • For the core DRAM.

    對於核心 DRAM。

  • Okay, great.

    好,太棒了。

  • Could you provide a capital spending guidance number for 2006 fiscal year, please?

    請您提供 2006 財年的資本支出指導數字,好嗎?

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • I indicated this early in fiscal year 2006; it's a pretty wideband.

    我在 2006 財年年初就指出了這一點;這是一個相當寬的帶寬。

  • So it's 1 billion to 1.5 billion.

    所以是10億到15億。

  • So it will take some time for that to shape up.

    因此,這需要一些時間才能形成。

  • Adam Parker - Analyst

    Adam Parker - Analyst

  • (indiscernible) you falling on, on that?

    (聽不清)你摔倒了?

  • Because given the revenue growth and what seems to be lower kind of capital spending, you are therefore having a capital spending to sales ratio that's declining kind of meaningfully.

    因為考慮到收入增長和似乎較低的資本支出,因此您的資本支出與銷售比率正在顯著下降。

  • Can you talk about this new revenue?

    你能談談這個新的收入嗎?

  • I don't know if Kipp or Steve or whoever wants to answer this, but can you talk about this new sort of revenue diversification?

    我不知道是 Kipp 還是 Steve 或任何人想回答這個問題,但你能談談這種新的收入多元化嗎?

  • And what do you think that does to your structural capital intensity over the next 2, 3 years?

    您認為這對您未來 2、3 年的結構性資本密集度有何影響?

  • Kipp Bedard - IR

    Kipp Bedard - IR

  • Steve, would you like to take that one?

    史蒂夫,你想拿那個嗎?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • Hey, Kipp, let me jump in here.

    嘿,基普,讓我跳到這裡。

  • You know, Adam, we really have somewhat of a bifurcation in the model, if you will.

    你知道,亞當,如果你願意的話,我們的模型確實有些分歧。

  • Clearly, the capital draft, if you will, of the products that don't need the leading-edge process -- they may need leading-edge talk technology -- it's just not the leading-edge process itself.

    顯然,如果你願意的話,那些不需要前沿工藝的產品的資本草案——它們可能需要前沿的談話技術——它只是不是前沿工藝本身。

  • Clearly, that will be successful in driving down the capital needs to bring those products to the market.

    顯然,這將成功降低將這些產品推向市場的資本需求。

  • Of course, the counter to that is that's not necessarily true of the NAND memory, which does continue to drive you towards an advanced process.

    當然,與此相反的是,NAND 內存不一定如此,它確實會繼續推動您走向先進工藝。

  • So to the extent that we continue to expand in that market, it will of course counter the effect that we're getting by having other products that don't need the advanced technology.

    因此,就我們在該市場繼續擴張而言,它當然會抵消我們通過擁有其他不需要先進技術的產品而獲得的影響。

  • I do not think we can as of yet assess exactly what those implications are because it depends on how far each of those product groups expand.

    我認為我們目前還不能準確評估這些影響是什麼,因為這取決於每個產品組的擴展程度。

  • There's no question for us overall if we were solely in NAND, if you will, or if we were solely in the computing DRAM, there is no question that it would drive our capital needs much higher than it will for the model that we have right now.

    如果我們只在 NAND 中,或者如果我們只在計算 DRAM 中,對我們來說毫無疑問,毫無疑問,它會推動我們的資本需求遠遠高於我們正確的模型現在。

  • Adam Parker - Analyst

    Adam Parker - Analyst

  • I see.

    我懂了。

  • One last thing, I know I asked a similar question on the June call, but you know there's a lot of rumblings about Intel and what they might do in the NAND Flash arena.

    最後一件事,我知道我在 6 月的電話會議上問了一個類似的問題,但你知道有很多關於英特爾以及他們在 NAND 閃存領域可能會做什麼的傳言。

  • Do you think what they do might impact your plans?

    你認為他們的所作所為會影響你的計劃嗎?

  • Is there any sort of apprehension or excitement or anything about what Intel could do in that space?

    對於英特爾可以在該領域做什麼,是否有任何擔憂或興奮?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • Yes, well obviously, we cannot speak for them.

    是的,很明顯,我們不能代表他們說話。

  • I do not think it's going to change our plans in terms of trying to grow our presence in critical mass in that market.

    我認為這不會改變我們試圖在該市場擴大我們在臨界規模的影響力的計劃。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Douglas Freedman, American Technology.

    道格拉斯弗里德曼,美國科技公司。

  • Douglas Freedman - Analyst

    Douglas Freedman - Analyst

  • If you guys could expand a little bit on your plans in NAND and how quickly you're looking to ramp in that business?

    如果你們可以稍微擴展一下 NAND 的計劃,那麼你們希望以多快的速度涉足該業務?

  • And you touched a little bit on the capital intensity.

    你談到了資本密集度。

  • How much of the capital budget do you think is going to be consumed by your NAND expansion versus DRAM and CMOS?

    您認為與 DRAM 和 CMOS 相比,您的 NAND 擴展將消耗多少資本預算?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • Fortunately, for us, as we stated before, the capacity is somewhat fungible between DRAM and NAND.

    幸運的是,正如我們之前所說,DRAM 和 NAND 的容量在某種程度上是可互換的。

  • So there is somewhere between a 90 to a 95% crossover.

    所以有一個介於 90% 到 95% 之間的交叉點。

  • As a result, we don't have to decide where that gets allocated to go forward; we just have to continue to put that in place.

    因此,我們不必決定分配到哪裡來繼續前進;我們只需要繼續落實到位。

  • So when you think about what that means for us, effectively, we have the ability to expand NAND on our current path.

    因此,當您考慮這對我們意味著什麼時,實際上,我們有能力在當前路徑上擴展 NAND。

  • Now one thing I should say is that essentially a large percentage of the Boise facility is already being ramped on NAND.

    現在我要說的一件事是,博伊西工廠的很大一部分已經在 NAND 上投入使用。

  • As you know, we have the Virginia facility, which we stated that we're basically 50% on DRAM, and we can allocate that second half any way that we want.

    如您所知,我們有弗吉尼亞工廠,我們說我們基本上 50% 使用 DRAM,我們可以按照我們想要的任何方式分配下半年。

  • And then of course beyond that, we will just have to see where the market drives us.

    當然,除此之外,我們只需要看看市場驅動我們的方向。

  • But from where we sit today, we actually -- because we are only partially ramped in Boise itself on the NAND -- from where we sit today, are output will continue to grow significantly in the next 12, 18 months.

    但從我們今天所處的位置來看,我們實際上——因為我們在 NAND 上的 Boise 本身只是部分增加——從我們今天所處的位置來看,未來 12、18 個月的產量將繼續顯著增長。

  • Adam Parker - Analyst

    Adam Parker - Analyst

  • I guess what I'm trying to figure out is, if you were to invest capital at a faster rate, would you be able to expand your share in the NAND market?

    我想我想弄清楚的是,如果你以更快的速度投資資本,你是否能夠擴大你在 NAND 市場的份額?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • Well, I mean the answer to that is yes.

    嗯,我的意思是答案是肯定的。

  • But when you say invest in a capital rate, that means two things for us -- we can continue to convert current capacity, and we can invest in new capacity.

    但是當你說投資資本利率時,這對我們來說意味著兩件事——我們可以繼續轉換現有產能,我們可以投資新產能。

  • So those in combination will ultimately determine how fast that grows.

    因此,這些組合最終將決定增長的速度。

  • But we currently are converting current capacity.

    但我們目前正在轉換現有產能。

  • We are in the discussions right now, as we look at our capital plan, how much new capacity would be put in place for NAND.

    我們現在正在討論我們的資本計劃,為 NAND 增加多少新產能。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Masdea, Credit Suisse First Boston.

    Michael Masdea,瑞士信貸第一波士頓。

  • Randy Abrams - Analyst

    Randy Abrams - Analyst

  • This is Randy Abrams for Michael Masdea.

    這是 Michael Masdea 的 Randy Abrams。

  • First question, just want to see if you look ahead to the next few months, what are your expectations for the production ramp in DRAM and then also your outlook for growing your non-memory products?

    第一個問題,只是想看看您是否展望未來幾個月,您對 DRAM 的產量增長有何期望,以及您對發展非內存產品的前景如何?

  • Kipp Bedard - IR

    Kipp Bedard - IR

  • Yes, Randy, this is Kipp.

    是的,蘭迪,這是基普。

  • We're looking at high-single digits for bit production moving forward over the next couple quarters, and that's a combination of both DRAM and NAND bit.

    我們正在關注未來幾個季度比特生產的高個位數,這是 DRAM 和 NAND 比特的組合。

  • Randy Abrams - Analyst

    Randy Abrams - Analyst

  • Beyond that, maybe talk about your visibility now or trends in the PC market, how behavior has been from some of your customers over the last couple weeks for both desktops and notebooks.

    除此之外,也許可以談談您現在的知名度或個人電腦市場的趨勢,過去幾週您的一些客戶對台式機和筆記本電腦的行為如何。

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • This is Mike speaking.

    這是邁克在說話。

  • First of all, we're right in the middle of what we had expected would be a seasonally strong demand period.

    首先,我們正處於我們預期的季節性強勁需求期的中間。

  • And I think things are playing out from a demand standpoint about like we expected.

    而且我認為從需求的角度來看,事情正在像我們預期的那樣發展。

  • By the way, our belief is -- if we aggregate our customers' DRAM demands for calendar Q4 timeframe, which roughly coincides with our fiscal Q1, we're looking at about a 17% quarter-over-quarter increase in demand, which again kind of matches what our expectations would be.

    順便說一句,我們的信念是——如果我們匯總客戶對日曆 Q4 時間框架的 DRAM 需求,這與我們的第一財季大致一致,我們預計需求環比增長約 17%,這再次有點符合我們的期望。

  • Now with respect to the components of demand, we are continuing to see a shift towards stronger notebook sales than desktop sales.

    現在,就需求的組成部分而言,我們繼續看到筆記本電腦銷售比台式機銷售更強勁的轉變。

  • For us, that's really I do not care.

    對我們來說,那真的是我不在乎。

  • It's essentially the same components that are going into notebooks just on a slightly different module.

    它本質上與筆記本電腦中的組件相同,只是模塊略有不同。

  • But it is the same components that are going in notebooks as desktops.

    但筆記本電腦中的組件與台式機相同。

  • We are still continuing to see a gradual shift from a DDR interface to DDR2 in terms of the sweet spot memory for PCs.

    就個人電腦的最佳內存而言,我們仍在繼續看到從 DDR 接口到 DDR2 的逐漸轉變。

  • Randy Abrams - Analyst

    Randy Abrams - Analyst

  • And just one final question, if you were to take the midpoint of your CapEx budget for fiscal '06, how much difference could you get in DRAM?

    最後一個問題,如果你要取 06 財年資本支出預算的中點,你能在 DRAM 中獲得多少差異?

  • And then how much growth could you get say in your non-memory products?

    那麼你的非內存產品能有多少增長呢?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • Randy, that would require us to give you a more accurate accounting of where we are going to allocate those wafers, as Steve was describing.

    蘭迪,這將要求我們更準確地說明我們將在哪里分配這些晶圓,正如史蒂夫所描述的那樣。

  • So again, we will give it to you in a combination fashion, where we look to be somewhere in that 45 to 55% bit growth range for fiscal '06 over '05.

    因此,我們將再次以組合方式將其提供給您,我們希望在 06 財年到 05 財年的 45% 到 55% 位增長范圍內。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Richard Prati, American Technology.

    Richard Prati,美國科技公司。

  • Richard Prati - Analyst

    Richard Prati - Analyst

  • Could you just comment given your diversification efforts into new product areas and decreasing exposure to PC-related, what would your ability over the next 12 to 24 months be to generate free cash flow and remain state-of-the-art and leading-edge on your technology?

    鑑於您在新產品領域的多元化努力以及與 PC 相關的風險減少,您能否發表評論,您在未來 12 到 24 個月內產生自由現金流並保持最先進和領先優勢的能力如何?關於你的技術?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • Well, as I had mentioned before to Steve, there is two ways to look at technology.

    好吧,正如我之前對史蒂夫提到的,有兩種看待技術的方式。

  • State-of-the-art technology and CMOS imaging is a much different issue than state-of-the-art technology for a computing DRAM.

    最先進的技術和 CMOS 成像是一個與計算 DRAM 的最先進技術大不相同的問題。

  • So you have to look at the way that our business is dividing itself.

    所以你必須看看我們的業務是如何劃分的。

  • And so our capital expenditures for the process requirements for DRAM are clearly going down as we get less exposed to that market.

    因此,隨著我們對該市場的接觸減少,我們對 DRAM 工藝要求的資本支出明顯下降。

  • The capital expenditures for NAND though -- because it needs leading-edge process -- will obviously have to either go up, or we would not keep paying through the advancement of technology.

    不過,NAND 的資本支出——因為它需要領先的工藝——顯然要么必須增加,要么我們不會繼續通過技術進步來支付費用。

  • And so that part of the business still has to have capital investment.

    因此,這部分業務仍然需要進行資本投資。

  • It is really the non -- call it the non-advanced process memory -- and there's lots of it, by the way, whether it's pseudo-static RAM or low-power DRAM or some of these other derivatives.

    它確實是非——稱之為非高級進程內存——順便說一句,它有很多,無論是偽靜態 RAM 還是低功耗 DRAM 或其他一些衍生產品。

  • Those markets are actually growing, and they do not require the same capital investment level either.

    這些市場實際上正在增長,它們也不需要相同的資本投資水平。

  • Obviously, we are comfortable where we're at with our ability to invest in capital.

    顯然,我們對自己的資本投資能力感到滿意。

  • And Bill has already giving you the range of the 1 to 1.5 billion.

    比爾已經給了你 1 到 15 億的範圍。

  • I think that we feel like that's going to get accomplished, what we need to get accomplished in both parts of those businesses.

    我認為我們覺得這將會完成,我們需要在這些業務的兩個部分完成。

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • Steve, I might add that the synchronous business certainly has had a stability and longevity to it and is one of our strongest margin and a very nice cash flow off of that business.

    史蒂夫,我可能會補充一點,同步業務確實具有穩定性和壽命,並且是我們最強勁的利潤之一,也是該業務的非常好的現金流。

  • And we anticipate that that is going to continue for sometime period.

    我們預計這將持續一段時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Lau, Jefferies Co.

    傑富瑞公司的約翰·劉

  • John Lau - Analyst

    John Lau - Analyst

  • Focusing more on demand products, what do you think the sweet spot is today, and where do you see that going next year?

    更多地關注需求產品,你認為今天的最佳點是什麼,你認為明年會怎樣?

  • I think you guys are on 4 gigabits right now.

    我認為你們現在使用 4 Gb。

  • So in terms of the new capacity, you mentioned also Boise and Virginia, how's about in the expansion of yopi (ph) fabs in Italy?

    那麼就新產能而言,您還提到了博伊西和弗吉尼亞州,在意大利擴建 yopi (ph) 晶圓廠的情況如何?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • I will talk about the market standpoint from where the sweet spot is and where we think it's going, John.

    約翰,我將從最佳點在哪里以及我們認為它的發展方向談談市場觀點。

  • This is Mike.

    這是邁克。

  • And I think well, I will defer to Steve on the fabrication strategy with respect to NAND.

    而且我認為,我會在 NAND 的製造策略上聽從史蒂夫的意見。

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • Where our primary product today is the 2 gigabit component.

    我們今天的主要產品是 2 Gb 組件。

  • We are actually shipping it in the form of 2 gigabits, 4 gigabits and 8 gigabits via stacking it.

    我們實際上是通過堆疊以 2 Gb、4 Gb 和 8 Gb 的形式運送它。

  • So I would say the sweet spot today in terms of demand would probably be at the 2 gigabit level.

    所以我想說,今天的需求最佳點可能是 2 吉比特水平。

  • And I think we would expect that to shift to 4 gigabit components next year.

    我認為我們預計明年將轉向 4 千兆位組件。

  • Many of those 4 gigabit components, by the way, will be shipped in the form of a two chip or a four chip stack to make a gigabyte or 2 gigabyte memory stack, if you will.

    順便說一句,這 4 Gb 組件中的許多將以 2 芯片或 4 芯片堆棧的形式發貨,以製造千兆字節或 2 千兆字節的內存堆棧,如果您願意的話。

  • Kipp Bedard - IR

    Kipp Bedard - IR

  • Did we get your questions answered?

    我們是否回答了您的問題?

  • John Lau - Analyst

    John Lau - Analyst

  • And the fab question?

    和晶圓廠的問題?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • On the fab -- in particular with respect to Italy -- the Italian operation is actually ramping the imaging business, and that's going well.

    在晶圓廠——尤其是在意大利——意大利的業務實際上正在擴大成像業務,而且進展順利。

  • But we expect that will continue to be the case.

    但我們預計情況將繼續如此。

  • It will move more -- it will continue to have more of its resources allocated to imaging over the next year, 1.5 year as we continue to finish that ramp.

    它會移動得更多——它將在明年(1.5 年)繼續將更多資源分配給成像,因為我們將繼續完成這一增長。

  • We think that is the best use of the capacity that we have there.

    我們認為這是對我們現有能力的最佳利用。

  • Does that answer your question?

    這是否回答你的問題?

  • John Lau - Analyst

    John Lau - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Glen Yeung, Citigroup.

    花旗集團的 Glen Yeung。

  • Glen Yeung - Analyst

    Glen Yeung - Analyst

  • Thanks, nice quarter.

    謝謝,不錯的季度。

  • I have a couple or three real short questions and then two maybe a bit more in-depth.

    我有幾個或三個真正的簡短問題,然後兩個可能更深入一點。

  • First one was just in terms of revenues in the quarter.

    第一個只是在本季度的收入方面。

  • Was Flash revenue greater than image sensor revenue in the quarter?

    本季度 Flash 收入是否高於圖像傳感器收入?

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • No, it did not quite reach that level.

    不,它還沒有達到那個水平。

  • Glen Yeung - Analyst

    Glen Yeung - Analyst

  • Just by the sound, it sounds kind of close.

    光聽聲音,就有點近了。

  • Is that a fair assessment?

    這是一個公平的評價嗎?

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Glen Yeung - Analyst

    Glen Yeung - Analyst

  • Then, it's kind of a response to a previous question about state of business right now.

    然後,這是對先前關於當前業務狀況的問題的回應。

  • One of your competitors has been suggesting that they may be seeing some cancellation from a major U.S.

    您的一位競爭對手一直暗示他們可能會看到來自美國主要地區的一些取消。

  • OEM, and frankly our firm has not been able to confirm that.

    OEM,坦率地說,我們公司無法證實這一點。

  • But just any thoughts you may have on potential DRAM cancellations in this kind of market?

    但是,您對此類市場中潛在的 DRAM 取消可能有任何想法嗎?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • We're not seeing any cancellations.

    我們沒有看到任何取消。

  • As I mentioned, the demand environment is quite robust.

    正如我所提到的,需求環境非常強勁。

  • So we feel pretty good about demand.

    所以我們對需求感覺很好。

  • I would suggest that my observation is that on the supply-side -- the supply-side DDR2 is a little bit ahead of where demand is.

    我建議我的觀察是在供應方面——供應方面的 DDR2 有點領先於需求。

  • So we're starting to -- we have seen some mild price pressure in the DDR2 area.

    所以我們開始 - 我們已經看到 DDR2 領域的一些溫和的價格壓力。

  • And my observation again would be that if we looked at the market right today, DDR2 supply probably exceeds demand.

    我再次觀察到,如果我們現在看市場,DDR2 供應可能超過需求。

  • So that maybe what the other supplies are referring to.

    所以這可能是其他用品所指的。

  • But certainly, we are not experiencing any cancellations to the extent that we are able to meet the commercial requirements of the customers.

    但可以肯定的是,在我們能夠滿足客戶的商業需求的範圍內,我們沒有遇到任何取消。

  • Glen Yeung - Analyst

    Glen Yeung - Analyst

  • And so if I look at inventory right now, would you say that it's pretty comfortable except for maybe a bit of DDR2 of kind of where you guys are?

    因此,如果我現在查看庫存,您會說它非常舒適,除了可能有點像你們那裡的 DDR2 嗎?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • I can only speak for our case;

    我只能代表我們的情況;

  • I cannot speak for anybody else.

    我不能代表任何人。

  • But yes, we are quite comfortable.

    但是,是的,我們很舒服。

  • Glen Yeung - Analyst

    Glen Yeung - Analyst

  • And then, I guess the two other sort of bigger questions maybe for Steve -- one is, your thoughts on the supply/demand balance for 2006 in the PC DR (ph) space to begin with.

    然後,我想史蒂夫可能還有另外兩個更大的問題——一個是,你對 2006 年 PC DR (ph) 領域的供需平衡的看法。

  • Then, the second question is, what are your thoughts on consolidation in the industry both in terms of your willingness to consolidate and whether or not you think it is actually going to happen at all?

    然後,第二個問題是,您對行業整合的看法是什麼,無論您是否願意整合,以及您是否認為它真的會發生?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • Well, on the first question about the supply-and-demand balance actually, you know Mike may be a little better situated to answer than I will.

    好吧,關於供需平衡的第一個問題,你知道邁克可能比我更適合回答。

  • Clearly in terms of the supply side, you know it is going to depend on how much of the capacity that has been forecasted to come online.

    顯然,就供應方面而言,您知道這將取決於預計將有多少產能上線。

  • It only comes online.

    它只上線。

  • As you know that a lot of that tends to evaporate the more difficult the market or if pricing doesn't come up and they don't quite raise the capital and they make a little bit less investment.

    如您所知,如果市場越困難,或者如果沒有定價並且他們沒有完全籌集資金,他們的投資就會少一點,其中很多往往會蒸發。

  • Although, I think it would be a good assumption there will be capacity brought online by some of our competitors.

    雖然,我認為這是一個很好的假設,我們的一些競爭對手會帶來在線容量。

  • And then I'm going to defer the demand to Mike, and he can comment about that in a second.

    然後我將把要求推遲給邁克,他可以在稍後發表評論。

  • But with respect to the consolidation, you know, there is really only five of us that develop technology anymore.

    但是關於整合,你知道,我們真的只有五個人開發技術了。

  • And consolidation among those five of course is always speculative.

    當然,這五者之間的整合總是投機性的。

  • You can read the media reports just like I do in terms of one or two of them.

    您可以像我一樣閱讀媒體報導中的一兩個。

  • We don't really know where some of that stands right now as they try to do their internal evaluations of what they should do with their businesses.

    當他們試圖對他們應該如何處理他們的業務進行內部評估時,我們真的不知道其中一些現在處於什麼位置。

  • I will say though that if there is consolidation opportunities for us to look at, we are definitely going to take a look at them.

    我會說,如果我們有整合機會,我們肯定會看看它們。

  • We still think the industry will consolidate.

    我們仍然認為該行業將整合。

  • And as a result, we of course -- if you look at our history -- have participated in that in various forms.

    因此,我們當然——如果你看看我們的歷史——以各種形式參與其中。

  • If the opportunity presents itself, then we will continue to look at it.

    如果機會出現,那麼我們將繼續關注它。

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • On the demand side next year, I think we've got to two boomers with respect to demand creation occurring next year.

    在明年的需求方面,我認為在明年的需求創造方面,我們有兩個嬰兒潮一代。

  • One on the PC side would be the new Microsoft operating system, which is going to be a product I believe in the second half of '06.

    PC 方面的一個將是新的 Microsoft 操作系統,我相信它會成為 06 年下半年的產品。

  • We are expecting, based on input from our customers, that they are going to start putting Vista compliance -- from a hardware standpoint, Vista-compliant systems out into the marketplace in the early part of next year.

    根據客戶的意見,我們預計他們將在明年年初開始將 Vista 兼容——從硬件的角度來看,兼容 Vista 的系統推向市場。

  • That really is going to result in we believe an effect of doubling on memory content per system.

    這確實會導致我們相信每個系統的內存內容翻倍的效果。

  • You know, those things only occur once every few years.

    你知道,這些事情每隔幾年才會發生一次。

  • And when they occur, they typically result in a huge incremental jump in terms of memory content.

    當它們發生時,它們通常會導致內存內容的巨大增量跳躍。

  • So we have got that working for us from a demand standpoint in PCs in '06.

    因此,從 06 年 PC 需求的角度來看,我們已經為我們工作了。

  • On the Flash side, of course, we had the continued encroachment of solid-state MP3 players on hard disk drive-based MP3 players occurring really throughout the rest of this year and into '06.

    當然,在 Flash 方面,固態 MP3 播放器繼續蠶食基於硬盤驅動器的 MP3 播放器,這在今年餘下的時間和 06 年確實發生了。

  • And I think that is going to result in a real boost in demand that some of the third-party market research firms are not really accounting for either.

    而且我認為這將導致需求的真正增長,而一些第三方市場研究公司也沒有真正考慮到這一點。

  • So those are two huge events I think occurring in '06.

    所以這是我認為發生在 06 年的兩件大事。

  • They are going to be big demand drivers.

    他們將成為巨大的需求驅動力。

  • And our expectation is that there is going to be some toggling from a capacity utilization standpoint -- some toggling of capacity from Flash to DRAM frankly speaking based on opportunistic profitability of the two.

    我們的預期是,從容量利用率的角度來看,將會有一些切換——坦率地說,基於兩者的機會盈利能力,容量從閃存到 DRAM 的切換。

  • And my belief is that those two big demand events next year as well as the ability from a supply side to toggle capacity utilization should result in a pretty good market environment for us.

    我相信,明年的這兩大需求事件以及供應方調整產能利用率的能力應該會給我們帶來一個非常好的市場環境。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs.

    吉姆·科維羅,高盛。

  • Jim Covello - Analyst

    Jim Covello - Analyst

  • Quick question on the image sensor business, Micron is obviously doing a terrific job on the market share side.

    關於圖像傳感器業務的快速問題,美光顯然在市場份額方面做得非常出色。

  • Some of your Korean competitors are making more noise about being more active in image sensors and the next-generation technologies.

    您的一些韓國競爭對手正在大肆宣傳在圖像傳感器和下一代技術方面更加活躍。

  • Do you think they are a credible threat, especially to your margins?

    你認為它們是一個可信的威脅嗎,尤其是對你的利潤?

  • Or do you think you'll be able to effectively beat them at the next-generation technologies as you have with the current generation?

    還是您認為您能夠像當前一代一樣在下一代技術上有效地擊敗他們?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • Steve, do you want to get that?

    史蒂夫,你想得到那個嗎?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • If I could jump in, Mike, real quick.

    如果我能跳進去,邁克,真的很快。

  • In terms of the competitive nature on the development side, there's no question that -- by the way one of them was probably in the sensor business before we were, and I think we've gone past them by quite a far margin.

    就開發方面的競爭性質而言,毫無疑問 - 其中一個可能在我們之前從事傳感器業務,我認為我們已經遠遠超過了他們。

  • So I think we're doing a great job there on the development side.

    所以我認為我們在開發方面做得很好。

  • Remember that as I mentioned earlier, the technology is not necessarily associated with kind of executing on a process roadmap; although, certainly, it is part of it.

    請記住,正如我之前提到的,該技術不一定與流程路線圖上的執行類型相關;雖然,當然,它是其中的一部分。

  • But it's the coupling of the development and how you think about the capability of the sensor itself.

    但這是開發的耦合以及您如何看待傳感器本身的能力。

  • We have been able to so far I think keep a pretty good lead.

    到目前為止,我認為我們已經能夠保持相當不錯的領先優勢。

  • Having said that, there is no question that the larger the market grows, the more people it will attract.

    話雖如此,毫無疑問,市場越大,吸引的人就越多。

  • Now fortunately, a lot of that technology is not simple to come up with and not simple to duplicate.

    現在幸運的是,很多這樣的技術都不容易想出,也不容易複製。

  • So we think that we are in a great position as we move forward in order to continue to be one of the leaders.

    因此,我們認為我們在前進的過程中處於有利位置,以便繼續成為領導者之一。

  • And what is interesting of course is that our sensors are in really all the handset manufacturers today, including some of our competitors.

    當然,有趣的是,我們的傳感器在當今所有的手機製造商中都有使用,包括我們的一些競爭對手。

  • I do think in general though, over time, what you will see is the companies that have tightly coupled, really think about it as design and development activity, tightly coupled with their capabilities and manufacturing and process -- that those companies will continue to be more successful over time because of the ability to optimize the performance of the device.

    我確實認為,總的來說,隨著時間的推移,你會看到緊密耦合的公司,真正將其視為設計和開發活動,與他們的能力、製造和流程緊密耦合——這些公司將繼續由於能夠優化設備的性能,隨著時間的推移更加成功。

  • So clearly, one or two of them will continue to be competitors, and they will be more successful I think in this space.

    很明顯,他們中的一兩個將繼續成為競爭對手,我認為他們在這個領域會更加成功。

  • But that doesn't necessarily mean it's more successful against us.

    但這並不一定意味著它對我們更成功。

  • Because there are still quite a few players that we think don't have the right model long-term.

    因為我們認為仍然有相當多的玩家長期沒有合適的模型。

  • Jim Covello - Analyst

    Jim Covello - Analyst

  • Terrific.

    了不起。

  • And then if I can ask a quick follow-up question on the commodity DRAM space and relative to NAND, the allocation of DRAM over to NAND's ability to kind of soak up some of the excess capacity coming online, if we fast forward -- if we go back to the beginning part of '05, I would say that we have had more DRAM allocated over to NAND than we thought.

    然後,如果我能問一個關於商品 DRAM 空間和相對於 NAND 的快速後續問題,DRAM 分配給 NAND 的能力有點吸收上線的一些過剩產能,如果我們快進 - 如果我們回到 05 年的開頭部分,我想說我們分配給 NAND 的 DRAM 比我們想像的要多。

  • We have had better PC unit growth than we thought and still the commodity DRAM pricing was kind of weaker than a lot of people expected.

    我們的 PC 單位增長比我們想像的要好,但商品 DRAM 的定價仍然比很多人預期的要弱。

  • Do you think that that could potentially be the same scenario for '06?

    您認為這可能與 06 年的情況相同嗎?

  • Outside of vista, is there a different dynamic there?

    在 vista 之外,那裡有不同的動態嗎?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • Mike, do you want to take that?

    邁克,你想拿那個嗎?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • Well, we've got the -- outside of Vista, there are no once in a 3 or 4 year type of events that are occurring.

    好吧,我們有——在 Vista 之外,沒有發生過 3 或 4 年一次的事件。

  • So we've got the Vista occurrence next year.

    所以我們明年會出現Vista。

  • Other than that, we've just got typical unit growth rate and of course content persistent growth that would normally be associated with new applications coming to PC.

    除此之外,我們剛剛獲得了典型的單位增長率,當然還有內容持續增長,這通常與進入 PC 的新應用程序相關聯。

  • It increased communication bandwidth and so forth.

    它增加了通信帶寬等等。

  • So, by the way, from a demand standpoint, we think those events are going to be sufficient to drive 50 percent-ish type of demand bit growth from the PC arena.

    因此,順便說一下,從需求的角度來看,我們認為這些事件將足以推動 PC 領域 50% 左右的需求增長。

  • Really with respect to what that means in terms of the supply/demand balance, as you know, it is impossible to predict.

    如您所知,就供需平衡而言,這實際上意味著什麼,這是無法預測的。

  • But the comforting factor for us is that for the first time really since the beginnings of the DRAM industry, we've got this other very, very large market -- that being the NAND Flash market -- that utilizes essentially the same tools as well as essentially the same kind of technology that is used for DRAM.

    但讓我們感到欣慰的是,自 DRAM 行業開始以來,我們第一次真正擁有了另一個非常非常大的市場——即 NAND 閃存市場——它也使用了基本相同的工具本質上與用於 DRAM 的技術相同。

  • That gives us as DRAM manufacturers, the ability to turn that knob if we get to a point where we are in an oversupply situation on DRAM.

    這給了我們作為 DRAM 製造商的能力,如果我們達到 DRAM 供應過剩的程度,我們就有能力轉動這個旋鈕。

  • So I think that is a different dynamic really that it really has never existed in the DRAM industry today.

    所以我認為這是一種不同的動態,它在今天的 DRAM 行業中從未存在過。

  • It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

    看看它是如何發揮作用的將會很有趣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Shawn Webster, JP Morgan.

    肖恩韋伯斯特,摩根大通。

  • Shawn Webster - Analyst

    Shawn Webster - Analyst

  • This is Shawn calling for Chris.

    這是肖恩在呼喚克里斯。

  • You talked a little bit about your DDR2, the DDR2 pricing environment.

    您談到了您的 DDR2,即 DDR2 定價環境。

  • Can you expand a little bit into DDR and SDRAM?

    你能稍微擴展到 DDR 和 SDRAM 嗎?

  • And then, I have a follow-up.

    然後,我有一個跟進。

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Just in general on the DRAM pricing front, the current environment is that DDR pricing is generally flat.

    總的來說,在 DRAM 定價方面,目前的環境是 DDR 定價普遍持平。

  • DDR2 pricing I mentioned; we're seeing some price pressure.

    我提到的 DDR2 定價;我們看到一些價格壓力。

  • So I think the direction or the near-term direction on DDR2 is probably going to be price decreases.

    所以我認為 DDR2 的方向或近期方向可能是價格下跌。

  • Synchronous DRAM pricing is generally flat as well.

    同步 DRAM 的定價也基本持平。

  • And our other DRAM products, just kind of the byproducts of the DRAM, would be a low-power mobile DRAM pseudo-static, and that's generally flattish as well.

    而我們的其他 DRAM 產品,只是 DRAM 的一種副產品,將是低功耗移動 DRAM 偽靜態,而且通常也很平淡。

  • So actually, in summary, everything generally flat with the exception of DDR2, where we are seeing some price pressure.

    所以實際上,總而言之,除了 DDR2 之外,一切都基本持平,我們看到了一些價格壓力。

  • Shawn Webster - Analyst

    Shawn Webster - Analyst

  • And on your wafers, I think last quarter you mentioned that you were at a wafer start rate of 60,000 wafers.

    在您的晶圓上,我認為您上個季度提到您的晶圓起始速度為 60,000 個晶圓。

  • And you thought it would increase a little bit.

    你認為它會增加一點。

  • Can you talk about what your wafer outs or wafer starts were this quarter and where you expect them to be by the end of fiscal '06?

    您能否談談本季度您的晶圓出貨量或晶圓起始量,以及您預計到 06 財年末它們會達到什麼水平?

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • That is correct.

    那是對的。

  • We hit our targets.

    我們達到了目標。

  • We're actually shipping a low 60,000 wafer outs per week, and that will be up a couple percent in fiscal Q1.

    實際上,我們每週出貨的晶圓數量僅為 60,000 片,這將在第一財季增長幾個百分點。

  • Shawn Webster - Analyst

    Shawn Webster - Analyst

  • Can you talk about where it will be at the end of fiscal '06?

    您能談談 06 財年末的情況嗎?

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • We will update you as we get into the next conference call.

    當我們進入下一次電話會議時,我們將更新您。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tim Luke, Lehman Brothers.

    蒂姆·盧克,雷曼兄弟。

  • Tim Luke - Analyst

    Tim Luke - Analyst

  • That's appropriate;

    這是合適的;

  • I'm calling from Korea.

    我是從韓國打來的。

  • I was just wondering, if you could have commented with respect to how you'd seen linearity through the quarter in general.

    我只是想知道,您是否可以就整個季度的線性度發表評論。

  • And then just remind us how that usually works as you move through the November quarter.

    然後提醒我們,在您度過 11 月季度時,這通常是如何運作的。

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • From a shipment standpoint?

    從出貨的角度?

  • Is that--?

    就是它 - ?

  • Tim Luke - Analyst

    Tim Luke - Analyst

  • Really, and also from an order development perspective too.

    真的,而且從訂單開發的角度來看也是如此。

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • Well, we typically see strength around the end of our customers' fiscal periods in demand.

    好吧,我們通常會在客戶的財政期結束時看到需求旺盛。

  • I do not know whether they are in the mode of deal cutting or what have you.

    我不知道他們是在削減交易模式還是你有什麼。

  • You'd have to ask them how it works.

    你必須問他們它是如何工作的。

  • But typically, we see demand strength or very, very small surge -- micro-surges is in demand, if you will, around the end of our quarters, our customers' fiscal periods -- which by the way don't coincide with our fiscal period.

    但通常情況下,我們會看到需求強勁或非常非常小的激增——如果你願意的話,在我們的季度末,我們客戶的財政期間,需要微量激增——順便說一下,這與我們的財政期間。

  • So for example, in the quarter that we're in currently, September would typically be a strong period for our customers.

    因此,例如,在我們目前所在的季度,9 月通常對我們的客戶來說是一個強勁的時期。

  • And I think that is occurring just about as expected.

    我認為這正如預期的那樣發生。

  • Tim Luke - Analyst

    Tim Luke - Analyst

  • I was also just wondering with respect to the CMOS image sensor area whether you could just clarify what the pricing outlooks had been.

    我也只是想知道關於 CMOS 圖像傳感器領域,您是否可以澄清定價前景。

  • Was that an area which is also expected to be fairly stable?

    那是一個預計也會相當穩定的區域嗎?

  • Or how have you seen that?

    或者你是怎麼看到的?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • For us, the pricing on CMOS sensors has been quite stable.

    對我們來說,CMOS 傳感器的價格相當穩定。

  • I would add that our customers are telling us that the pricing environment, particularly on the VGA sensors and 1 megapixel sensors, the pricing environment is becoming quite more competitive.

    我要補充一點,我們的客戶告訴我們,定價環境,特別是 VGA 傳感器和 1 兆像素傳感器,定價環境變得更具競爭力。

  • My perception is that our superior image quality has enabled us to obtain a significantly higher price than the industry average.

    我的看法是,我們卓越的圖像質量使我們能夠獲得遠高於行業平均水平的價格。

  • And it's also enabling us to -- both to hold market shares, while maintaining a significantly higher price.

    它還使我們能夠——既能持有市場份額,又能保持顯著更高的價格。

  • Tim Luke - Analyst

    Tim Luke - Analyst

  • Lastly with respect to inventory, having gone down this quarter, do you feel that it is at a level where you would expect it to move up from here?

    最後,關於庫存,本季度有所下降,您是否認為它處於您期望它從這裡上升的水平?

  • Or do you think there's further opportunities for it to move down based on what you see in terms of production and demand?

    或者您認為根據您在生產和需求方面的看法,它還有進一步下降的機會嗎?

  • Kipp Bedard - IR

    Kipp Bedard - IR

  • Generally feeling it is at a level necessary to support our customer base, other than what Mike indicated as some DDR2.

    一般來說,除了 Mike 所說的一些 DDR2 之外,它還處於支持我們客戶群的必要水平。

  • Mike?

    麥克風?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • Yes, I think that is accurate.

    是的,我認為這是準確的。

  • You know, it's really difficult to predict.

    你知道,這真的很難預測。

  • There's not much predictability in our customer demand from week to week.

    我們每週的客戶需求沒有太多可預測性。

  • So it would be really speculative for me to say what's going to happen to our inventory between now and the end of the quarter, let alone the end of next month.

    所以說從現在到本季度末我們的庫存會發生什麼,對我來說真的是投機性的,更不用說下個月末了。

  • But our inventory level today is at a level that we feel is necessary in order to provide adequate service to the customers.

    但是我們今天的庫存水平處於我們認為為向客戶提供足夠服務所必需的水平。

  • I don't foresee anything usual on the horizon.

    我沒有預見到任何常見的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Wong, A.G. Edwards.

    David Wong,A.G. 愛德華茲。

  • David Wong - Analyst

    David Wong - Analyst

  • First, just a quick clarification because I think you said you're expecting high-single digit bit production growth over the next couple quarters.

    首先,快速澄清一下,因為我認為您說過您預計未來幾個季度的比特產量將出現高個位數增長。

  • Do you mean per quarter?

    你是說每季度嗎?

  • Do you have single digit growth in each of the next couple of quarters as opposed to in total?

    在接下來的幾個季度中,您是否有單位數的增長,而不是總體增長?

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • Yes, that is correct.

    對,那是正確的。

  • David Wong - Analyst

    David Wong - Analyst

  • And sorry, can you guys quantify for us -- you did say that inventory had come down a bit today.

    抱歉,你們能幫我們量化一下嗎——你們確實說過今天庫存下降了一點。

  • Can you give us the weeks of inventory ending the quarter?

    你能告訴我們本季度結束時的庫存週數嗎?

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • In the range of a little over 3 weeks worth of finished goods inventory.

    在 3 週多一點的成品庫存範圍內。

  • David Wong - Analyst

    David Wong - Analyst

  • And my final question, average selling prices in the quarter firstly your PC DRAM and then overall?

    最後一個問題,本季度的平均售價首先是您的 PC DRAM,然後是整體價格?

  • And secondly, where does today's prices -- roughly how do those compare with your average prices through the quarter just finished?

    其次,今天的價格在哪裡 - 與剛剛結束的季度的平均價格相比大致如何?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • I don't have the absolute selling price in the prior quarter.

    我沒有上一季度的絕對售價。

  • I apologize.

    我道歉。

  • Today's selling prices on DDR would be about the same.

    今天 DDR 的售價大致相同。

  • On DDR2 may be slightly lower than where they were last quarter.

    在 DDR2 上可能略低於上一季度的水平。

  • On synchronous DRAM about the same.

    在同步DRAM上也差不多。

  • And if Bill has the absolute pricing --

    如果比爾有絕對定價——

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • That characterization is solid compared to the averages we picked up for the quarter.

    與我們在本季度獲得的平均值相比,這一特徵是可靠的。

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • So if I look at our average pricing, which I have in front of me now, our average pricing last quarter for example on a -- you know, we're high-volume parts, 256 megabyte DDR in the neighborhood of $3 per unit. 512 megabyte DDR in the neighborhood of $7 per unit.

    因此,如果我看一下我們現在擺在我面前的平均價格,例如我們上個季度的平均價格——你知道,我們是大批量零件,256 兆字節 DDR,每單位約 3 美元. 512 MB DDR,每單元 7 美元左右。

  • David Wong - Analyst

    David Wong - Analyst

  • Right, then it's about the same now you're saying?

    對了,你說的和現在差不多嗎?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • Roughly, yes.

    大致,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Krishna Shankar, JMP Securities.

    Krishna Shankar,JMP 證券公司。

  • Krishna Shankar - Analyst

    Krishna Shankar - Analyst

  • Congratulations on a nice quarter.

    祝賀你度過了一個美好的季度。

  • Can you rank quarter your gross margins by product line, especially the DRAM, CMOS (indiscernible)?

    您能否按產品線對您的毛利率進行四分之一排名,尤其是 DRAM、CMOS(音頻不清晰)?

  • Can you just give us the line total of your gross margins by product line?

    您能否按產品線向我們提供您的總毛利率?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • Yes, it hasn't changed much from last quarter -- image sensor, specialty DRAM, Flash, and then PC DRAM.

    是的,它與上一季度相比沒有太大變化——圖像傳感器、專用 DRAM、閃存,然後是 PC DRAM。

  • Krishna Shankar - Analyst

    Krishna Shankar - Analyst

  • And then in terms of the dramatic improvement in gross margin compared to revenue growth, would you characterize that just as NAND/Flash getting to sort of critical mass and covering all fixed costs?

    然後就毛利率與收入增長相比的顯著提高而言,您是否會認為這就像 NAND/Flash 達到某種臨界質量並涵蓋所有固定成本一樣?

  • What would be the key reason for the dramatic improvement in the gross margin percentage this quarter?

    本季度毛利率大幅提升的主要原因是什麼?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • There is a significant amount of that that we hoped comes across with regards of the cost improvements we're making across our manufacturing lines.

    關於我們在整個生產線上進行的成本改進,我們希望能夠實現其中的很大一部分。

  • Indicated that our 300 millimeter operations moved up significantly and are having very nice yields throughout manufacturing and improved noticeably -- and did acknowledge that there was significant improvement on the TECH Semiconductor gross margin as well.

    表明我們的 300 毫米業務顯著增長,並且在整個製造過程中的良率非常好,並且顯著提高 - 並且確實承認 TECH Semiconductor 的毛利率也有顯著改善。

  • So 20 to 25% of our product coming from that joint venture had noticeable improvement in margin.

    因此,我們來自該合資企業的產品中有 20% 到 25% 的利潤率顯著提高。

  • Krishna Shankar - Analyst

    Krishna Shankar - Analyst

  • So do you mean a stable, flattish pricing environment?

    那麼,您的意思是穩定、平坦的定價環境嗎?

  • Would you say that 40 to 50% of incremental revenue growth could translate to the gross profit line here going forward over the next quarter or so?

    你會說 40% 到 50% 的增量收入增長可以轉化為下個季度左右的毛利潤線嗎?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • Let me answer that in a way that we do have been in all of our product categories continued cost reductions really every quarter through the next year.

    讓我回答一下,我們確實在所有產品類別中都在持續降低成本,直到明年每個季度都在持續降低成本。

  • So in a flat pricing environment, then, yes, you would expect additional contribution.

    因此,在統一定價的環境中,是的,您會期望額外的貢獻。

  • Krishna Shankar - Analyst

    Krishna Shankar - Analyst

  • And then on NAND Flash, why don't you accelerate capacity expansion?

    然後在NAND Flash上,為什麼不加速擴容呢?

  • Why don't you accelerate your capital spending, given that you have good success in ramping up your -- it's a high growth market.

    既然您在增加您的資金方面取得了巨大成功,您為什麼不加快您的資本支出——這是一個高增長的市場。

  • And why don't we see that experiencing higher growth in terms of your production investment in NAND Flash?

    為什麼我們沒有看到您在 NAND 閃存的生產投資方面出現更高的增長?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • Well, we actually -- one thing that we can't forget about is that we have pretty high growth in a couple of other areas outside of NAND that are not computing DRAM.

    嗯,我們實際上 - 我們不能忘記的一件事是,我們在 NAND 之外的其他幾個不計算 DRAM 的領域有相當高的增長。

  • So in fact, we have had to allocate some of the resources that maybe that you would classify as being able to go to NAND to these other products.

    所以事實上,我們不得不將一些資源分配給這些其他產品,這些資源可能你會歸類為能夠使用 NAND。

  • Because you just heard from the ranking from Kipp on the gross margin side; we've actually still got two other products that are higher gross margins than the NAND, even though as you just described, the NAND environment is pretty good.

    因為你剛剛聽到 Kipp 在毛利率方面的排名;我們實際上還有另外兩種毛利率高於 NAND 的產品,儘管正如您剛才所描述的,NAND 環境非常好。

  • So we are not going to sacrifice that when we are also trying to make sure that we keep a leadership position in a couple of these other markets.

    因此,當我們也在努力確保我們在其他幾個市場中保持領先地位時,我們不會犧牲這一點。

  • So to the extent that we can accelerate, we will.

    因此,在我們可以加速的範圍內,我們會的。

  • But the other thing that you have to keep in mind is we do have a customer base that we have to service.

    但您必須記住的另一件事是我們確實有一個我們必須服務的客戶群。

  • And we have the integrity of the Company and an obligation to the Company to make sure that we look out for them as well.

    我們擁有公司的誠信,並且對公司有義務確保我們也關注他們。

  • And as a result, we are not going to do anything too drastic.

    因此,我們不會做任何過於激烈的事情。

  • We can make changes over time.

    我們可以隨著時間的推移做出改變。

  • But we are going to continue to meet those commitments and make this transition as we are able to as we go through time.

    但我們將繼續履行這些承諾,並隨著時間的推移盡可能地進行這種過渡。

  • Krishna Shankar - Analyst

    Krishna Shankar - Analyst

  • And my final question on the competitive environment, it seems that most amount of capacity in sort of the commodity DRAM areas, which has led to the pricing weakness has come out of Taiwan.

    關於競爭環境的最後一個問題,似乎導致價格疲軟的商品 DRAM 領域的大部分產能來自台灣。

  • Can you characterize the capital spending outlook and sort of the behavior of some of the Taiwan competitors, who seem to be adding the most of capacity in the commodity DRAM area?

    您能否描述一些台灣競爭對手的資本支出前景和行為,他們似乎在商品 DRAM 領域增加了最多的產能?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • Yes, I think the premise that you just outlined is true; that most of the capacity has -- it's either coming online or being forecasted to come online, really I'd say in some of these larger numbers, mid to late '06.

    是的,我認為您剛剛概述的前提是正確的;大部分容量都有 - 它要么上線,要么預計將上線,我想說的是,在 06 年中後期,我會說其中一些更大的數字。

  • Now, we don't know if that materializes.

    現在,我們不知道這是否會實現。

  • But typically, that is tied to how difficult the market is.

    但通常,這與市場的困難程度有關。

  • So I cannot speak for those companies.

    所以我不能代表這些公司。

  • They have announced plans to bring capacity online.

    他們已經宣布了將容量上線的計劃。

  • And we will just have to wait and see what actually happens.

    我們只需要等待,看看實際會發生什麼。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Lynch, Deutsche Bank.

    本·林奇,德意志銀行。

  • Ben Lynch - Analyst

    Ben Lynch - Analyst

  • Congrats on the particularly strong performance in the CMOS seamless sensor and NAND.

    祝賀 CMOS 無縫傳感器和 NAND 的特別強勁的性能。

  • I guess over the last 2 quarters or so, cumulatively, this business has sort of doubled I think 45% and then 40% growth.

    我想在過去的兩個季度左右,累積起來,這項業務已經翻了一番,我認為增長了 45%,然後增長了 40%。

  • Could you just try and break that growth down in terms of the cell phone market, CMOS seamless sensor penetration, your market share.

    您能否嘗試在手機市場、CMOS 無縫傳感器滲透率和您的市場份額方面打破這種增長。

  • I am just trying to deconstruct that growth a little bit if possible, please.

    如果可能的話,我只是想稍微解構這種增長。

  • Kipp Bedard - IR

    Kipp Bedard - IR

  • Ben, if I understand your question, you are referring specifically to our growth in the image sensor business.

    Ben,如果我理解您的問題,您具體指的是我們在圖像傳感器業務方面的增長。

  • You would like Mike maybe to detail the different market segments, the growth rates in those and then our position in that?

    您是否希望 Mike 詳細說明不同的細分市場、這些細分市場的增長率以及我們在其中的地位?

  • Ben Lynch - Analyst

    Ben Lynch - Analyst

  • Yes, that would be great, please.

    是的,那太好了,拜託。

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • The mobile phone market, Ben, is continuing to be the primary driver of our business.

    Ben 的手機市場仍然是我們業務的主要驅動力。

  • We have had some -- actually quite a bit of success in winning designs in the automotive business and in a consumer business, actually in the medical business as well.

    我們已經取得了一些——實際上在贏得汽車業務和消費者業務的設計方面取得了相當大的成功,實際上在醫療業務中也是如此。

  • But frankly speaking, those have not accounted for significant revenues to date.

    但坦率地說,迄今為止,這些並沒有帶來可觀的收入。

  • So most of the revenue growth you're seeing is coming from mobile phones.

    所以你看到的大部分收入增長來自手機。

  • Some commercial success in PC camera products and in digital still camera products as well.

    在 PC 相機產品和數碼相機產品中也取得了一些商業上的成功。

  • But the bulk of the revenue growth is coming from mobile phones.

    但大部分收入增長來自手機。

  • And I believe the seeds that we're planting in the automotive industry are going to bear fruit, significant fruit for us probably in the '07 timeframe.

    我相信我們在汽車行業播下的種子將會結出碩果,對我們來說可能會在 07 年的時間框架內結出碩果。

  • Ben Lynch - Analyst

    Ben Lynch - Analyst

  • I think, Mike, you said this year, full year, maybe 50% penetration, so I guess it's possibly even above that at the moment.

    我想,邁克,你說今年,全年,可能 50% 的滲透率,所以我想現在可能甚至更高。

  • And also if you could confirm that.

    如果你能證實這一點。

  • And also what do you estimate Micron's share in the current quarter, please?

    另外,請問您估計美光在本季度的份額是多少?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • We think there is about a one-in-three chance if you buy a camera phone, it's got a Micron sensor in it.

    我們認為,如果您購買可拍照手機,則大約有三分之一的機會,其中裝有美光傳感器。

  • Ben Lynch - Analyst

    Ben Lynch - Analyst

  • The other question I have is, it's difficult we're trying to construct a few different things from various elements.

    我的另一個問題是,我們很難嘗試從各種元素中構建一些不同的東西。

  • You gave us the CMOS image sensor and Flash businesses have grown.

    你給了我們CMOS圖像傳感器和閃存業務增長。

  • But is 15% the revenues?

    但是 15% 是收入嗎?

  • I guess you were sort of hinting that.

    我猜你是在暗示這一點。

  • CMOS image sensors is the bigger part of that.

    CMOS圖像傳感器是其中的重要部分。

  • Let's say it's 8, 9%, and it has doubled effectively in the last 2 quarters.

    假設它是 8% 和 9%,並且在過去兩個季度中有效地翻了一番。

  • In those 2 quarters, your overall revenues have sort of been flattish.

    在這兩個季度中,您的總體收入一直持平。

  • So let's say a couple of quarters ago, it was 4, 4.5%.

    因此,假設幾個季度前,它是 4%、4.5%。

  • I know it is clearly bigger than Flash back then.

    我知道它顯然比當時的 Flash 更大。

  • Ahead (ph) of just notes from a year ago in Q4 that at the time, Flash and CMOS image sensor or other stuff as you called it was 10 to 15% of total wafer starts.

    在一年前的第四季度剛剛指出,當時閃存和 CMOS 圖像傳感器或其他你稱之為的東西佔晶圓總啟動量的 10% 到 15%。

  • I guess I am trying to understand the dynamic between the wafer start allocation versus now you've finally got to a point where these two businesses seem to be a large part of your revenues.

    我想我正試圖了解晶圓開始分配與現在您終於達到這兩項業務似乎是您收入的很大一部分之間的動態。

  • Could you help us understand was that just sort of maybe particularly in NAND getting yields to acceptable levels?

    您能否幫助我們理解,這可能是特別是在 NAND 中將良率提高到可接受的水平?

  • And I know there is a bit of a lead lag between wafer starts and wafer outs, etc.

    而且我知道晶圓開始和晶圓輸出之間存在一些領先滯後,等等。

  • But if you could just help me understand a little bit of that please.

    但如果你能幫助我理解一點,請。

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • Hey, Kipp, let me jump in here real quick, and then you guys can add comments afterwards.

    嘿,Kipp,讓我快速進入這裡,然後你們可以添加評論。

  • You know, the thing that we have tried to really communicate I think over the last couple of years is that as we grow these businesses, we have to keep in mind that the DRAM market, in particular the computing DRAM market is not standing still.

    你知道,我認為在過去幾年裡,我們試圖真正溝通的事情是,隨著我們發展這些業務,我們必須記住 DRAM 市場,特別是計算 DRAM 市場並沒有停滯不前。

  • In other words, it's still growing at this 50% rate per year.

    換句話說,它仍然以每年 50% 的速度增長。

  • So what you are seeing is a discussion about revenues.

    所以你看到的是關於收入的討論。

  • I think if you were to look in terms of output, clearly our output was shifting to the non-computing DRAM.

    我認為,如果您從輸出的角度來看,顯然我們的輸出正在轉移到非計算 DRAM。

  • But that is being countered now by the ramp of the 300-millimeter facility.

    但這正在被 300 毫米設施的坡道所抵消。

  • So I actually had thought about this prior to the call in terms of how this would look in terms of break out.

    所以我實際上在電話會議之前就已經考慮過這個問題,這在爆發方面會是什麼樣子。

  • Because on the surface of things, even though we are I think higher percentage going to these other product areas than we were as we talked about it a quarter ago or two or three quarters ago.

    因為從表面上看,即使我們是,我認為與我們在一個季度前或兩三個季度前談論它時相比,進入這些其他產品領域的百分比更高。

  • But because of the 300-millimeter output coming online and then re-contributing the bits going into the DRAM space, it somewhat balanced it out, even though these others have been growing quite rapidly for us.

    但由於 300 毫米輸出上線,然後將位重新貢獻到 DRAM 空間,它在某種程度上平衡了它,儘管其他這些對我們來說增長很快。

  • So I think in terms of growth rate, there is no question that the growth rate in things like CMOS imagers have been outstripping everything to date.

    所以我認為就增長率而言,毫無疑問,像 CMOS 成像器這樣的產品的增長率已經超過了迄今為止的一切。

  • And the reason I say to date is, remember, the Flash market of course is growing at a pretty high rate as well.

    到目前為止,我說的原因是,請記住,Flash 市場當然也在以相當高的速度增長。

  • And really how that shakes out is still to be determined a little bit in terms of our resource allocation.

    真正如何擺脫這種情況還有待於我們的資源分配來確定。

  • But both of those will grow at a higher rate going forward than you are going to see the DRAM computing is for an obvious reason.

    但是,這兩者的增長速度都將高於你所看到的 DRAM 計算是出於一個明顯的原因。

  • Because we're reaching the levels in 300 millimeter that we said we would reach going back a year, 1.5 year ago.

    因為我們正在達到我們所說的 300 毫米的水平,我們說我們將在一年前,即 1.5 年前達到。

  • And of course, the growth rate now in that space is going to slow now that we are reaching those levels.

    當然,現在這個領域的增長率將會放緩,因為我們已經達到了這些水平。

  • And it will primarily be based upon yield improvements and process node transitions, etc.

    它將主要基於良率改進和工藝節點轉換等。

  • And as a result, we probably will start to have somewhat of a re-acceleration now in the percentage of our business that is attributable to the CMOS imaging and NAND product line.

    因此,我們現在可能會開始重新加速我們的業務百分比,這可歸因於 CMOS 成像和 NAND 產品線。

  • Ben Lynch - Analyst

    Ben Lynch - Analyst

  • It sounds like there's probably a few things that I guess if you take them all together, yes, it can work out.

    聽起來可能有幾件事我猜如果你把它們放在一起,是的,它可以解決。

  • Thank you very much for the explanation.

    非常感謝您的解釋。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Stephens (ph), Ivory Capital.

    Scott Stephens (ph),象牙資本。

  • Scott Stephens - Analyst

    Scott Stephens - Analyst

  • Can you talk about just where you are in terms of your cost structure per NAND presently?

    你能談談你目前在每個 NAND 的成本結構方面的情況嗎?

  • You talk about the quintupling of the revenue, but obviously the production has not quintupling.

    你說收入翻了五倍,但顯然產量並沒有翻五倍。

  • So talk about kind of where you are in your cost structure and compared to competitors and where you will be kind of next year?

    那麼談談您在成本結構中的位置以及與競爭對手相比的位置以及明年的位置?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • It is hard for us to know of course where we are at compared to competitors.

    與競爭對手相比,我們當然很難知道自己處於什麼位置。

  • Let me just primarily characterize it in terms of where we sit today.

    讓我主要根據我們今天所處的位置來描述它。

  • Absolutely unequivocally, our cost structure on NAND will continue to decline I think fairly significantly going forward for two reasons.

    毫無疑問,我們在 NAND 上的成本結構將繼續下降,我認為未來相當顯著,原因有兩個。

  • One because we are still relatively small in scale building the NAND today; although, we still think our cost structure is pretty decent.

    一是因為我們今天構建 NAND 的規模仍然相對較小;儘管如此,我們仍然認為我們的成本結構相當不錯。

  • But it doesn't account for that big of our output yet.

    但它還沒有占我們輸出的那麼大。

  • And in addition to that, we originally inserted ourselves in the 90 nm 2 gig, which was where the market was at the time we introduced it, and we thought it would be.

    除此之外,我們最初將自己插入到 90 nm 2 gig 中,這是我們推出它時的市場所在,我們認為它會是。

  • But we're sampling the 72 nm, and it actually looks pretty good as well.

    但我們正在對 72 nm 進行採樣,它實際上看起來也相當不錯。

  • And of course, that will translate into a cost reduction also.

    當然,這也將轉化為成本降低。

  • So really at the end of the day, we have a lot of runway in front of us in our cost structure in that device.

    所以說真的,在我們的設備成本結構中,我們面前有很多跑道。

  • And actually, we think it's still even pretty good today.

    實際上,我們認為它今天仍然非常好。

  • And again, I can speak where our competition is, but we are pretty confident we are going to make significant strides in where we sit.

    再說一次,我可以說我們的競爭對手在哪裡,但我們非常有信心我們將在我們所處的位置取得重大進展。

  • Scott Stephens - Analyst

    Scott Stephens - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then Kipp, can you talk about just -- you have obviously generated some free cash and talked about where you guys will get in terms of how you view it going forward.

    然後基普,你能談談 - 你顯然已經產生了一些自由現金,並談到你們將如何看待未來的發展。

  • And talk about what a good construct of return on invested capital might be for going forward?

    並談談未來投資資本回報的良好結構可能是什麼?

  • And how you guys will -- how you think of return on invested capital, how we could calculate that and how that is connected to it to the free cash flow?

    你們將如何看待投資資本回報率,我們如何計算它以及它如何與自由現金流相關聯?

  • Kipp Bedard - IR

    Kipp Bedard - IR

  • I can take the first part of that, and then maybe Bill can address how we might calculate ROIC.

    我可以先做第一部分,然後比爾可以解決我們如何計算投資回報率的問題。

  • But I think you're referring to the fact that Steve alluded to earlier that we have got several product lines that are growing very rapidly that we would consider to be much less capital intensive than say the advanced process needed for NAND Flash and DRAM.

    但我認為你指的是史蒂夫早些時候提到的事實,即我們有幾條增長非常迅速的產品線,我們認為這些產品線的資本密集度要低於 NAND 閃存和 DRAM 所需的先進工藝。

  • So from that construct and in an environment where you have somewhat benign pricing, obviously, we believe our cash profile can look significantly different than it has over the last 5 years for example.

    因此,從這種結構來看,在定價略顯溫和的環境中,顯然,我們相信我們的現金狀況可能與過去 5 年的情況大不相同。

  • And Bill, would you like to take a swat at the ROIC calculation that perhaps we look at it internally?

    還有比爾,你想看看我們可能在內部查看的 ROIC 計算嗎?

  • Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

    Bill Stover - VP, Finance, CFO

  • Well, if you are just looking at it in a EBITDA reference, in the circumstance that for sometime period yet, we have got no tax rate to take into consideration.

    好吧,如果您只是在 EBITDA 參考中查看它,那麼在一段時間內,我們還沒有考慮到稅率。

  • And look at the combination of debt and equity as your denominator, you got a high-level view.

    看看債務和股權的組合作為你的分母,你有一個高層次的觀點。

  • And as Kipp has indicated, for over a year, 1.5 year now, we have had a very, very significant emphasis within the Company, where individual resource allocation decisions are being driven by an ROIC analysis.

    正如 Kipp 所指出的那樣,一年多來,現在 1.5 年,我們在公司內部非常非常重視,其中個人資源分配決策是由 ROIC 分析驅動的。

  • And we do believe that this quarter is a good indication that that is starting to pay off.

    我們確實相信本季度是一個很好的跡象,表明這已經開始得到回報。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bill Dezellem, Titan Capital Management.

    比爾·德澤勒姆,泰坦資本管理公司。

  • Bill Dezellem - Analyst

    Bill Dezellem - Analyst

  • We have a couple of questions.

    我們有幾個問題。

  • First of all, relative to the cost improvements that you see in the next couple of quarters, are there any factors that could or should lead to more than the normal trending down of cost were you see a real step function increase?

    首先,相對於您在接下來的幾個季度中看到的成本改善,如果您看到真正的階躍函數增加,是否有任何因素可能或應該導致超過正常的成本下降趨勢?

  • And then secondarily, relative to your participation in the NAND market, where or how or naught does Leehigh (ph) fit into your capacity expansion plan for the NAND market?

    其次,相對於您對 NAND 市場的參與,Leehigh (ph) 在哪里或如何或根本不適合您的 NAND 市場產能擴張計劃?

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • This is Steve.

    這是史蒂夫。

  • Let me start with the Leehigh question; then, I want turn it back to the other guys to comment on the other.

    讓我從 Leehigh 的問題開始;然後,我想把它轉回給其他人來評論另一個。

  • We clearly have kept Leehigh in our roadmap for expansion.

    我們顯然已將 Leehigh 保留在我們的擴張路線圖中。

  • Because it's a 300-millimeter capable facility.

    因為它是一個 300 毫米的設施。

  • As you know, we have made a significant investment there, and we continue to keep that facility either in a great state or actually we been bringing it forward if you will through time.

    如您所知,我們在那裡進行了重大投資,我們將繼續保持該設施處於良好狀態,或者如果您願意的話,實際上我們一直在推進它。

  • And so that facility is available and ready at the time we decide that we need it.

    因此,當我們決定需要它時,該設施就可用並準備就緒。

  • Now, we have not made that decision today, obviously.

    現在,顯然,我們今天還沒有做出這個決定。

  • But we continue to review that on an ongoing basis.

    但我們會持續不斷地審查這一點。

  • Bill Dezellem - Analyst

    Bill Dezellem - Analyst

  • (multiple speakers) If we were to choose to move forward way, would -- is there enough capital allocated in the budget in that 1 billion to 1.5 billion for fiscal '06 that would include that?

    (多位發言者)如果我們選擇向前推進,那麼 06 財年 10 億到 15 億的預算中是否有足夠的資金分配,包括這些資金?

  • Or would that be (multiple speakers) --

    或者會是(多位發言者)——

  • Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

    Steve Appleton - Chairman, CEO, President

  • Well, actually even if we were to move forward on it, remember the lead-time of the equipment, etc., it would not affect the fiscal '06 budget much anyhow.

    好吧,實際上,即使我們繼續前進,記住設備的交貨時間等,無論如何也不會對 06 財年的預算產生太大影響。

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • And Bill, on the cost side, as you know, we generally give a guidance of expecting around a 10% cost reduction per quarter.

    比爾,在成本方面,如您所知,我們通常給出的指導是預計每季度成本降低 10% 左右。

  • Certainly quarters like this, we can have even better than that type of performance.

    當然像這樣的季度,我們可以有比那種類型更好的表現。

  • In general, the items that will continue to drive costs for us will be improved 300 millimeter, in general continued improvement in yields and of course shrinks that we are working on all the time.

    總的來說,將繼續為我們增加成本的項目將提高 300 毫米,通常會繼續提高產量,當然還有我們一直在努力的縮小。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Root, Ode (ph) Asset Management.

    Andrew Root,Ode (ph) 資產管理。

  • Andrew Root - Analyst

    Andrew Root - Analyst

  • I get easily confused, so I just wanted to clarify something. 45 to 55% bit growth for fiscal '06, is that total memory bit, so then you will then decide how to split it between DRAM and NAND?

    我很容易感到困惑,所以我只是想澄清一些事情。 06 財年 45% 到 55% 的位增長,是總內存位,那麼您將決定如何在 DRAM 和 NAND 之間分配它?

  • Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

    Mike Sadler - VP, Worldwide Sales

  • That is correct.

    那是對的。

  • Andrew Root - Analyst

    Andrew Root - Analyst

  • So presumably, NAND grows faster.

    因此,據推測,NAND 的增長速度更快。

  • DRAM grows at something slower than the midpoint of that?

    DRAM 的增長速度比中點慢?

  • Kipp Bedard - IR

    Kipp Bedard - IR

  • And that is separate and apart from imaging unit growth.

    這與成像單元的增長是分開的。

  • Andrew Root - Analyst

    Andrew Root - Analyst

  • And then the second part was on image sensors.

    然後第二部分是關於圖像傳感器的。

  • Did you say that you had wins with all the Tier-1 OEMs?

    您是說您在所有一級 OEM 中都取得了勝利嗎?

  • Or that you are already shipping in volume to all the tier OEMs?

    或者您已經在向所有級別的 OEM 批量發貨?

  • Kipp Bedard - IR

    Kipp Bedard - IR

  • We certainly have wins with all of them.

    我們當然與他們所有人都取得了勝利。

  • And if I'm not mistaken, we are shipping in volume to all of them.

    如果我沒記錯的話,我們正在向所有這些公司批量發貨。

  • If we are not as of today, we will be by the end of our fiscal quarter.

    如果我們不是今天,我們將在我們的財政季度末完成。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nadeem Janmohamed, Lehman Brothers.

    Nadeem Janmohamed,雷曼兄弟。

  • Nadeem Janmohamed - Analyst

    Nadeem Janmohamed - Analyst

  • My question has been answered.

    我的問題已經得到解答。

  • Kipp Bedard - IR

    Kipp Bedard - IR

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • We'd like to thank everyone for participating on the call today.

    我們要感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

  • If you will please bear with me, I need to repeat the Safe Harbor protection language.

    如果你能容忍我,我需要重複安全港保護語言。

  • During the course of this call, we may have made forward-looking statements regarding the Company and the industry.

    在本次電話會議期間,我們可能對公司和行業做出了前瞻性陳述。

  • These particular forward-looking statements and all other statements that may have been made on this call that are not historical facts are subject to the number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially.

    這些特定的前瞻性陳述以及可能在本次電話會議上做出的所有其他非歷史事實的陳述均受風險和不確定性的影響,實際結果可能存在重大差異。

  • For information on the important factors that may cause actual results to differ materially, please refer to our filings with the SEC, including the Company's most recent 10-Q and 10-K.

    有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的重要因素的信息,請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件,包括公司最近的 10-Q 和 10-K。

  • Thank you again for joining us.

    再次感謝您加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • We ask that you disconnect all lines.

    我們要求您斷開所有線路。

  • And have a great day.

    祝你有美好的一天。