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Operator
Operator
(audio in progress) (Operator Instructions) Please note this conference is being recorded.
(音訊正在進行中)(操作員指示)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。
I will now turn the conference over to our host, Emily Tadano, Vice President of Investor Relations and External Communications. Thank you. You may begin.
現在,我將會議交給主持人、投資者關係和外部溝通副總裁 Emily Tadano。謝謝。你可以開始了。
Emily Tadano - Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG
Emily Tadano - Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG
Thank you, Operator. Good morning, and welcome to our analyst call to discuss our second-quarter 2025 results. We issued the press release yesterday after the market closed. You can find it along with the slides we will refer to during this call on our website at investors.meritagehomes.com or by selecting the Investor Relations link at the bottom of our home page.
謝謝您,接線生。早安,歡迎參加我們的分析師電話會議,討論我們 2025 年第二季的業績。我們昨天在股市收盤後發布了新聞稿。您可以在我們的網站 investors.meritagehomes.com 上找到它以及我們在本次電話會議中將參考的幻燈片,或者透過選擇我們主頁底部的「投資者關係」連結找到它。
Please refer to slide 2, cautioning you that our statements during this call as well as in the earnings release and the accompany slides contain forward-looking statements. Those and any other projections represent the current opinions of management, which are subject to change at any time, and we assume no obligation to update them.
請參閱投影片 2,提醒您我們在本次電話會議以及收益報告和隨附幻燈片中的聲明包含前瞻性陳述。這些預測和任何其他預測均代表管理層的當前意見,這些預測隨時可能發生變化,我們不承擔更新這些預測的義務。
Any forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain. Our actual results may be materially different than our expectations due to a wide variety of risk factors, which we have identified and listed on this slide as well as in our earnings release and most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically our 2024 annual report on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q for subsequent quarters.
任何前瞻性陳述本質上都是不確定的。由於各種各樣的風險因素,我們的實際結果可能與我們的預期有重大差異,我們已在此投影片以及我們的收益報告和最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中識別和列出這些風險因素,特別是我們 2024 年 10-K 表年度報告和後續季度的 10-Q 表。
We've also provided a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our earnings release as compared to their closest-related GAAP measures. Share and per share amounts have been retroactively restated to reflect our January 2, 2025, stock split for all prior periods.
我們也提供了收益報告中提到的某些非 GAAP 財務指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標之間的對帳。股份和每股金額已追溯重述,以反映我們 2025 年 1 月 2 日對所有先前期間的股票分割。
With us today to discuss our results are Steve Hilton, Executive Chairman; Phillippe Lord, CEO; and Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and CFO of Meritage Homes. We expect today's call to last about an hour. A replay will be available on our website later today.
今天與我們一起討論業績的有執行董事長史蒂夫·希爾頓 (Steve Hilton)、首席執行官菲利普·洛德 (Phillippe Lord) 和 Meritage Homes 執行副總裁兼首席財務官希拉·斯費魯扎 (Hilla Sferruzza)。我們預計今天的通話將持續約一個小時。今天晚些時候我們將在我們的網站提供重播。
I'll now turn it over to Mr. Hilton. Steve?
現在我將把發言權交給希爾頓先生。史蒂夫?
Steven Hilton - Executive Chairman of the Board
Steven Hilton - Executive Chairman of the Board
Thank you, Emily. Welcome to everyone listening in on our call. Today, I'll start by touching on our second-quarter results and current market trends. Phillippe will cover our strategy, how our strategy helps us navigate the changing market conditions, and the highlights of our quarterly performance. Hilla will provide a financial overview of the quarter and forward-looking guidance.
謝謝你,艾米麗。歡迎大家收聽我們的電話會議。今天,我首先談談我們的第二季業績和當前的市場趨勢。Phillippe 將介紹我們的策略、我們的策略如何幫助我們應對不斷變化的市場條件以及我們季度業績的亮點。Hilla 將提供本季的財務概覽和前瞻性指導。
We are proud of our team's efforts to navigate the tougher selling conditions, and we secured orders of 3,914 homes in the second quarter of 2025. Our strategy's focus on move-in-ready inventory and the continued use of financing incentives allowed us to better compete in a challenging market because we provide our customers with certainty to help overcome strained consumer confidence.
我們為團隊在更嚴峻的銷售條件下所做的努力感到自豪,並在 2025 年第二季度獲得了 3,914 套房屋的訂單。我們的策略重點是可立即入住的庫存,並持續使用融資激勵措施,這使我們能夠在充滿挑戰的市場中更好地競爭,因為我們為客戶提供確定性,以幫助克服緊張的消費者信心。
This performance generated a strong average absorption pace of 4.3 net sales per month this quarter. In the second quarter of 2025, we delivered 4,170 homes. Our improved cycle times and move-in-ready spec strategy drove another quarter of backlog conversion above 200%.
這一業績使得本季平均吸收速度達到每月 4.3 筆淨銷售額。2025 年第二季度,我們交付了 4,170 間房屋。我們改進的週期時間和準備就緒的規格策略推動了積壓訂單轉換率再增加四分之一,達到 200% 以上。
We generated a home closing revenue of $1.6 billion this quarter and achieved adjusted home closing gross margin of 21.4%, excluding terminated land deal charges, which contributed to EPS -- diluted EPS of $2.04. We also increased our book value per share 10% year over year.
本季度,我們的房屋過戶收入達16億美元,調整後房屋過戶毛利率達21.4%(不包括已終止的土地交易費用),這部分貢獻了每股收益——稀釋後每股收益2.04美元。我們的每股帳面價值也較去年同期成長了10%。
It is well documented that home buying demand has softened over the last several quarters, and even more so this past quarter. Mortgage rates increased and remain volatile, while consumer hesitancy went up causing potential buyers to take an extended timeframe to commit to a home purchase.
有充分的證據表明,過去幾個季度購屋需求已經減弱,而上個季度尤其如此。抵押貸款利率上升且持續波動,而消費者猶豫不決的情緒上升,導致潛在買家需要更長的時間來承諾購買房屋。
And at the entry level segment, affordability remains the primary barrier to home ownership. We believe our strategy was designed to provide certainty and weather these challenges head on, and we remain positive on the long-term outlook of our industry, given favorable demographic trends.
在入門級市場,負擔能力仍是購屋的主要障礙。我們相信,我們的策略旨在提供確定性並迎接這些挑戰,並且鑑於有利的人口趨勢,我們對我們行業的長期前景仍然持樂觀態度。
And with that, I'll now turn it over to Philippe.
現在,我將把發言權交給菲利普。
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Steve. As Steve noted, we believe that Meritage is well positioned. Despite today's macro headwinds, we remain competitive and gain market share because we are choosing to focus on what we can control by having an agile business model with a go-to-market strategy which delivers certainty for customers during challenging times.
謝謝你,史蒂夫。正如史蒂夫所說,我們相信 Meritage 處於有利地位。儘管當今面臨宏觀逆風,我們仍然保持競爭力並獲得市場份額,因為我們選擇專注於我們能夠控制的領域,採用敏捷的商業模式和市場進入策略,在充滿挑戰的時期為客戶提供確定性。
First, we want to commend everyone at Meritage for their dedication and hard work to focus on these controllables. We were happy to share that our second quarter of 2025 ending community count was 312 active stores, the highest community count in company history, with more planned growth to come in the second half of the year.
首先,我們要讚揚 Meritage 的每一位員工,感謝他們為解決這些可控問題所付出的奉獻和努力。我們很高興地告訴大家,我們 2025 年第二季度的期末社區數量為 312 家活躍商店,這是公司歷史上最高的社區數量,並且計劃在下半年實現更多增長。
Further, our teams, once again, challenged themselves and were able to reduce our construction time from approximately 120 calendar days in the first quarter of 2025 to about 110 this quarter, which allows us to reduce our starts per community. These two achievements are laying the groundwork for continued growth, even during a time when there are macro factors that are challenging the entire industry.
此外,我們的團隊再次挑戰自我,將施工時間從 2025 年第一季的約 120 個日曆日縮短至本季度的約 110 個日曆日,這使我們能夠減少每個社區的開工數量。即使在宏觀因素對整個產業構成挑戰的時期,這兩項成就也為持續成長奠定了基礎。
Next, I want to underscore the agility of our affordable spec building strategy. We can build various levers at the local level to ensure we optimize every asset. Our operations and cost structure are more efficient when we are building, selling, and closing at a consistent pace of 4 net sales per month.
接下來,我想強調我們可負擔規格建立策略的靈活性。我們可以在地方層級建立各種槓桿,以確保優化每項資產。當我們以每月 4 筆淨銷售額的穩定速度進行生產、銷售和成交時,我們的營運和成本結構會更有效率。
We know that these savings and efficiencies can be used to offset the impact of increased incentives that are currently being offered to achieve the target. However, home building is a local business, and we look to balance pace and price on a community-by-community basis to ensure we are maximizing our financial performance.
我們知道,這些節省和提高的效率可以用來抵消目前為實現目標而提供的增加的激勵措施的影響。然而,房屋建築是一項地方性業務,我們希望在每個社區的基礎上平衡速度和價格,以確保最大限度地提高我們的財務表現。
As you have seen us do in the past, s sales pace starts to slow, we moderate our starts in order to maintain our targeted level specs, which is four to six monthsâ supply on the ground. We also change the pace of our of our starts based on our cycle times to ensure we have an optimal amount of ready inventory.
正如您過去看到的那樣,當銷售速度開始放緩時,我們會調整開工速度,以保持我們的目標水平規格,即四到六個月的地面供應量。我們還根據週期時間改變啟動速度,以確保我們擁有最佳數量的現成庫存。
As part of our agile business model, we exercise a disciplined yet flexible approach around our land strategy that helps us optimize our land positions on a market-by-market basis. We routinely review all of our land under control and determine if it still aligns with the changing market conditions. As a result of this analysis, we regularly terminate land deals that no longer fit our criteria, which in Q2 was approximately 1,800 lots.
作為我們敏捷業務模式的一部分,我們圍繞土地策略採取了嚴謹而靈活的方法,幫助我們根據每個市場優化土地地位。我們定期審查我們控制的所有土地,並確定它是否仍然符合不斷變化的市場條件。根據這項分析,我們定期終止不再符合我們標準的土地交易,第二季約有 1,800 塊土地。
Lastly, our go-to-market strategy provides the certainty that buyers are looking for today. Our 60-day closing commitment and move-in-ready offerings compete directly with resale inventory, but with all the benefits of a new home. And our focus on including our customers' brokers in the buying process make us a partner choice for both future homeowners and the broker community.
最後,我們的市場進入策略提供了當今買家所尋求的確定性。我們 60 天的成交承諾和可立即入住的服務可與轉售庫存直接競爭,但同時具備新房的所有優勢。我們專注於讓客戶的經紀人參與購買過程中,這使我們成為未來房主和經紀人社區的合作夥伴選擇。
We believe our strategy and agility have allowed us to maximize our earnings while continuing to have a strong balance sheet with a focus on liquidity. We are making all of these decisions with the bigger framework of our capital allocation decisions. To align with prevailing macro dynamics, we have intentionally toggled between our spend on land and a focus on shareholder returns, which Hilla will cover later.
我們相信,我們的策略和敏捷性使我們能夠實現收益最大化,同時繼續保持強勁的資產負債表並專注於流動性。我們是在資本配置決策的更大框架下做出所有這些決定的。為了順應當前的宏觀動態,我們有意在土地支出和股東回報之間進行切換,Hilla 稍後將對此進行介紹。
Now turning to slide 4. Demand remained healthy during the spring selling season as we worked through affordability concerns on a customer-by-customer basis. Second-quarter 2025 orders were 3% higher year over year due to a 7% increase in average community count that was partially offset by a 4% decrease in average absorption pace. The cancellation rate of 10% this quarter remained lower than historical average, given the limited time between sale to close with our 60-day closing-ready commitment.
現在翻到幻燈片 4。由於我們針對每位客戶解決了負擔能力問題,春季銷售季節的需求保持強勁。2025 年第二季訂單量年增 3%,原因是平均社區數量增加了 7%,但平均吸收速度下降了 4%,部分抵消了這一增長。由於我們承諾 60 天的成交準備時間,從銷售到成交的時間有限,本季 10% 的取消率仍低於歷史平均值。
Average absorption pace decreased to 4.3 in the second quarter of 2025 from 4.5 per month in the prior year, but was in line with our target of spring selling sales pace greater than 4 per month. Under normal market conditions, we expect a sales pace that is higher in the first half of the year and a little lower in the second half of the year, balancing to around 4 net sales per store annually.
2025 年第二季度,平均吸收速度從去年的每月 4.5 下降到 4.3,但符合我們春季銷售速度每月超過 4 的目標。在正常市場條件下,我們預期上半年的銷售速度較高,下半年的銷售速度略低,平均每家店每年的淨銷售額約為 4 家。
ASP on orders this quarter of $395,000 was down 5% from prior year due to a greater utilization of rate buy down financing incentives. We offer a wide range of incentives to our customers, and rate buy downs continue to be the most attractive offering in the majority of our markets as they drive affordability and help our customers solve for a monthly payment.
由於更多地利用了利率買斷融資激勵措施,本季訂單的平均售價為 395,000 美元,比去年下降了 5%。我們為客戶提供各種各樣的激勵措施,而利率買斷仍然是我們大多數市場中最具吸引力的優惠,因為它們可以提高負擔能力並幫助我們的客戶解決每月的還款問題。
Our second-quarter 2025 ending community count was 312. This was up 9% year over year compared to 287 at June 30, 2024, and also up 8% compared to 290 at March 31, 2025. During the quarter, we brought over 50 new communities online with additional community count growth in the second half of the year. We reiterate our outlook of double-digit year-over-year growth for our 2025 year-end community count.
截至 2025 年第二季度,我們的社區數量為 312 個。與 2024 年 6 月 30 日的 287 家相比,年增 9%,與 2025 年 3 月 31 日的 290 家相比,也成長了 8%。本季度,我們上線了 50 多個新社區,下半年社區數量也有所增加。我們重申對 2025 年底社區數量實現兩位數同比增長的展望。
As for early July indications, the first few weeks exhibited normal seasonality and a slower pace. July is traditionally one of the slowest sales months, and the timing of the 4th of July holiday caused the month to start slower than anticipated, but demand has improved to normal seasonality since then. We believe we can continue to solve affordability concerns and achieve our internal sales targets through our incentive offerings and broker relationships.
從七月初的情況來看,前幾週呈現正常的季節性,且成長速度較慢。7 月傳統上是銷售最慢的月份之一,而 7 月 4 日假期的時間導致該月開始時銷售速度低於預期,但此後需求已恢復到正常的季節性。我們相信,透過我們的激勵措施和經紀人關係,我們可以繼續解決負擔能力問題並實現我們的內部銷售目標。
Moving to the regional trend levels on slide 5, the central region had our highest average absorption pace of 5.2 in the second quarter, followed by the east with 4.1 net sales per month. The West region had an average absorption pace of 3.9.
轉到幻燈片 5 上的區域趨勢水平,中部地區在第二季度的平均吸收速度最高,為 5.2,其次是東部地區,每月淨銷售額為 4.1。西部地區平均吸收速度為3.9。
During the quarter, we continued to see diversity in performance across the country with some of our markets experiencing healthy demand, while others were more impacted by the elevated mortgage rates and growing retail supply. Although no market is immune to the current economic conditions, we saw a relatively strong demand and sales performance in Arizona, Dallas, Houston, and Southern California. Florida, Colorado, Austin, and San Antonio continued to face more challenging conditions with increasing existing inventory and stretched affordability, while the balance of our markets were performing as expected.
在本季度,我們繼續看到全國各地業績表現的多樣性,部分市場需求強勁,而其他市場則受到抵押貸款利率上升和零售供應成長的影響。儘管沒有一個市場能夠免受當前經濟狀況的影響,但我們看到亞利桑那州、達拉斯、休士頓和南加州的需求和銷售表現相對強勁。佛羅裡達州、科羅拉多州、奧斯汀和聖安東尼奧繼續面臨更具挑戰性的條件,現有庫存不斷增加,負擔能力日益緊張,而我們其他市場的表現則符合預期。
Now turning to slide 6. We started approximately 4,000 homes in the second quarter of 2025, 5% less than last year's Q2, given our faster cycle times while aligning with the current sales volume. We will continue to review seasonal sales patterns and our approved cycle times when planning for our starts pace per community in Q3 and beyond.
現在翻到幻燈片 6。鑑於我們的周期時間較短且與當前銷售量保持一致,我們在 2025 年第二季度開工建設了約 4,000 套房屋,比去年第二季度減少了 5%。在規劃第三季及以後每個社區的起步速度時,我們將繼續審查季節性銷售模式和我們批准的週期時間。
With over 200% backlog conversion, our ending backlog declined from 2,700 units as of June 30, 2024, to 1,700 homes as of June 30, 2025. The lower ending backlog balance is an intentional output of our strategy as we are able to convert sales to closings quicker. The higher backlog conversions and shorter cycle times are also generating improved [WIP] asset turns, helping us to achieve home inventory terms of around 3 times per year.
隨著積壓訂單轉換率超過 200%,我們的期末積壓訂單從截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日的 2,700 套減少到截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的 1,700 套。較低的期末積壓訂單餘額是我們策略的有意成果,因為我們能夠更快地將銷售轉換為成交。更高的積壓轉換率和更短的周期時間也提高了 [WIP] 資產週轉率,幫助我們實現每年約 3 次的房屋庫存週轉率。
As we gain additional experience and consistency under our new strategy, we will be re-evaluating our target for backlog conversion rate this year. Since about half of our deliveries have been generated from inner quarter sales for several quarters now, we consider the aggregate of total specs and backlog to determine the right inventory levels of each of our communities.
隨著我們在新策略下獲得更多經驗和一致性,我們將重新評估今年的積壓轉換率目標。由於我們幾個季度以來大約一半的交付量都來自季度內銷售,因此我們會考慮總規格和積壓訂單的總和來確定每個社區的正確庫存水準。
We have had approximately 8,700 specs and backlog units as of June 30, 2025, as compared to over 9,200 units at June 30, 2024. We had approximately 6,900 spec homes in inventory as of June 30, 2025, up 400 units from over 6,500 specs as of June 30, 2024, and up 2% sequentially from Q1. While the total number of specs slightly increased, our specs per store held steady at approximately 22 specs per community this quarter, which corresponds to about five months' supply in the middle of a four- to six-month target.
截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,我們擁有約 8,700 個規格和積壓單位,而 2024 年 6 月 30 日則有超過 9,200 個單位。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,我們的庫存規格房約為 6,900 套,比 2024 年 6 月 30 日的 6,500 多套規格房增加了 400 套,比第一季環比增長 2%。雖然規格總數略有增加,但本季我們每家商店的規格保持穩定,每個社區約為 22 個規格,這相當於四到六個月目標中間的五個月的供應量。
As a reminder, to have the appropriate amount of inventory to meet our 60-day closing-ready commitment, we intentionally release our homes for sale when they're nearly move-in ready. So similar to Q1, we maintain our percentage of complete specs at 38% as of June 30, 2025.
提醒一下,為了擁有足夠數量的庫存來滿足我們 60 天的成交承諾,我們特意在房屋即將準備好入住時才將其出售。與第一季類似,截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,我們的完整規格百分比保持在 38%。
We continue to balance our inventory levels to ensure success in our go-to-market strategy and offer customers peace of mind. Our strategic focus and community count growth create an opportunity for near-term growth during time of economic transition.
我們持續平衡庫存水平,以確保我們的市場進入策略成功,並讓客戶安心。我們的策略重點和社區數量的成長為經濟轉型時期的短期成長創造了機會。
With that, I will now turn it over to Hilla to walk through our financial results.
現在,我將把時間交給希拉 (Hilla) 來介紹我們的財務表現。
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Philippe. Let's turn to slide 7 and cover our Q2 results in more detail. Second-quarter 2025 home closing revenue of $1.6 billion was 5% lower compared to prior-year despite a 1% increase in closing volume, primarily as a result of increased utilization of financing incentives, which drove our ASP on closings lower to $387,000 per home.
謝謝你,菲利普。讓我們翻到第 7 張投影片,更詳細地介紹一下我們的第二季業績。2025 年第二季房屋成交收入為 16 億美元,儘管成交量增加了 1%,但與去年同期相比下降了 5%,這主要是由於融資激勵措施的利用率增加,導致每套房屋的成交平均售價下降至 387,000 美元。
Home closing gross margin of 21.1% in the second quarter of 2025 was down 480 bps from 25.9% in the second quarter of 2024, reflecting the increased use of financing incentives and higher lot costs partially offset by improved direct costs and cyclical times. Our Q2 2025 margins also included terminated land deal walkaway charges of $4.2 million compared to $1.4 million in the prior year. Excluding these charges, adjusted margins were 21.4% and 26% in the second quarters of 2025 and 2024 respectively.
2025 年第二季房屋成交毛利率為 21.1%,較 2024 年第二季的 25.9% 下降 480 個基點,反映出融資激勵措施的使用增加和地塊成本的提高,但直接成本和週期時間的改善部分抵消了這一影響。我們的 2025 年第二季利潤率還包括終止土地交易的放棄費用 420 萬美元,而上一年為 140 萬美元。不包括這些費用,2025 年第二季和 2024 年第二季的調整後利潤率分別為 21.4% 和 26%。
As we look at the components of margin, we note that despite some green shoots in the current pricing of land, the land basis that is reflected in our closings was acquired and developed several years ago and remains elevated due to the higher-than-normal land development costs experienced since 2022. While we've not yet seen these costs start to notably decline, we have seen them stabilize, and we are in the midst of ongoing efforts to actively rebid land development spend.
當我們研究利潤的組成部分時,我們注意到,儘管當前土地定價出現了一些回升跡象,但我們成交量中反映的土地基礎是幾年前獲得和開發的,並且由於自 2022 年以來土地開發成本高於正常水平,因此仍然處於高位。雖然我們還沒有看到這些成本開始大幅下降,但我們已經看到它們趨於穩定,而且我們正在不斷努力積極重新競標土地開發支出。
During the quarter, we were successful in reducing our direct costs by more than 1% per square foot year over year. We also achieved direct cost savings sequentially from Q1 to Q2.
在本季度,我們成功地將每平方英尺的直接成本比去年同期降低了 1% 以上。我們也從第一季到第二季連續實現了直接成本節約。
In addition to lumber prices trending down, our higher volume combined with stronger national vendor partnerships and our purchasing team's negotiations led to the incremental savings. Labor also seems to be more available in our markets, potentially stemming from slower multi-family construction and reduced starts in the industry.
除了木材價格呈下降趨勢外,我們更高的銷售量、更強大的全國供應商合作夥伴關係以及我們採購團隊的談判也帶來了增量節省。我們的市場上勞動力似乎也更加充足,這可能是由於多戶型住宅建設放緩以及行業開工率下降所造成的。
Our Q3 margin guidance reflects the current incentive environment, our actual land costs, the savings in the directs from lower prices, and improved cycle times. On a sequential basis, Q3 margins incorporate some lost leverage from Q2, since we have already closed most of the high volume of the spring selling season orders in Q2, and July, which now generates about one-third of our closing volume for Q3 under our new strategy, is one of our slowest months of sales, as Philippe already mentioned. Our pace typically picks up in August and September, but most of those closings won't occur until Q4.
我們的第三季利潤率指引反映了當前的激勵環境、我們的實際土地成本、因價格降低而直接節省的成本以及縮短的周期時間。按順序計算,第三季度的利潤率包含了第二季度的一些損失,因為我們已在第二季度完成了大部分春季銷售季節的高銷量訂單,而正如 Philippe 已經提到的那樣,7 月份是我們銷售最慢的月份之一,根據我們的新戰略,7 月份目前占我們第三季度銷量的三分之一左右。我們的步伐通常會在八月和九月加快,但大多數交易要到第四季才會完成。
Our longer-term gross margin target remains at 22.5% to 23.5% under normal market conditions, which is about 300 bps higher than where we were pre-COVID due to our structural differences since that time. We are a larger scale company with a different operating model today, which we believe permanently improves our gross margin trajectory from our historical averages. We believe this target is achievable with even just a small pullback from the current above-normal levels of incentives being utilized by a large percentage of our customers.
在正常市場條件下,我們的長期毛利率目標仍為 22.5% 至 23.5%,由於自那時以來我們的結構性差異,這比 COVID 之前的水平高出約 300 個基點。如今,我們是一家規模更大的公司,擁有不同的營運模式,我們相信這將永久改善我們的毛利率軌跡,使其超越歷史平均水平。我們相信,即使只是將目前大部分客戶所使用的高於正常水平的激勵措施稍微減少一點,這一目標也是可以實現的。
SG&A as a percentage of home closing revenue in the second quarter of 2025 was 10.2% compared to 9.3% in the second quarter of 2024, primarily as a result of higher commissions, start-up costs for our newer divisions, carry costs related to increased spec inventory as well as some lost leverage. Given the tougher selling conditions, commission rates were higher year over year, and our marketing spend also increased respectively. Our [co-broke] percentage is in the low-90s and remains similar to Q1 this year.
2025 年第二季度,銷售、一般及行政費用佔房屋成交收入的百分比為 10.2%,而 2024 年第二季度為 9.3%,這主要是由於佣金增加、新部門的啟動成本、與規格庫存增加相關的持有成本以及一些槓桿率損失。鑑於銷售條件更加嚴峻,佣金率較去年同期提高,我們的行銷支出也有所增加。我們的[共同經紀商]百分比在 90% 以下,與今年第一季相似。
Under our new strategy, the higher volume of specs result in an increase in utilities, cleaning, and landscaping costs, all of which are included as a component of our selling expenses. We are assessing all SG&A components to ensure we have the appropriate overhead to align with the current operating environment.
根據我們的新策略,規格數量的增加會導致公用事業、清潔和景觀美化成本的增加,所有這些都包含在我們的銷售費用中。我們正在評估所有銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 組成部分,以確保我們擁有適當的管理費用來適應當前的營運環境。
There are also some AI opportunities we are pursuing that can help us further streamline operations in the future. We are maintaining our long-term SG&A target of 9.5% once we achieve higher closing volumes.
我們也正在尋求一些人工智慧機會,以幫助我們在未來進一步簡化營運。一旦我們實現更高的成交量,我們將維持 9.5% 的長期銷售、一般及行政費用率目標。
The second quarter's effective income tax rate was 23.9% this year compared to 22.1% for the second quarter of 2024. The higher tax rate in 2025 reflects fewer homes qualifying for energy tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, given the new higher construction thresholds required to earn the tax credit this year.
今年第二季的有效所得稅率為 23.9%,而 2024 年第二季的有效所得稅率為 22.1%。2025 年更高的稅率意味著,根據《通貨膨脹削減法案》,符合能源稅收抵免條件的房屋數量會減少,因為今年獲得稅收抵免所需的建築門檻更高。
Overall, lower gross margins as well as higher SG&A and tax rates led to a 35% year-over-year decrease in the second-quarter 2025 diluted EPS to $2.04 from $3.15 in 2024. We also generated a return on equity of 12.5% for the 12 months ended June 30, 2025.
總體而言,較低的毛利率以及較高的銷售、一般及行政費用和稅率導致 2025 年第二季稀釋每股收益同比下降 35%,從 2024 年的 3.15 美元降至 2.04 美元。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的 12 個月內,我們的股本回報率也達到了 12.5%。
To highlight just a few results from the first half of 2025, on a year-over-year basis, orders were flat, closings were down 1%, and our home closing revenue decreased 6% to $3 billion. Adjusted home closing gross margin of 21.7%, excluding terminated deal charges was 420 bps lower than 2024. SG&A as a percentage of home closing revenue was 10.7%, and net earnings decreased 35% to $270 million with $3.73 in diluted EPS.
僅舉幾個 2025 年上半年的業績來看,與去年同期相比,訂單持平,成交量下降 1%,房屋成交收入下降 6% 至 30 億美元。調整後的房屋成交毛利率為 21.7%,不包括終止交易費用,比 2024 年低 420 個基點。銷售、一般及行政費用佔房屋成交收入的 10.7%,淨收益下降 35% 至 2.7 億美元,稀釋每股收益為 3.73 美元。
Before we move on to the balance sheet, I want to discuss our customers' second quarter credit metrics. As expected, our buyer profile remained relatively consistent with our historic historical averages, with FICO scores in the 730s and DTIs around 41 to 42. LTVs were in the high-80s.
在我們討論資產負債表之前,我想先討論一下我們客戶的第二季信用指標。正如預期的那樣,我們的買家概況與歷史平均值保持相對一致,FICO 分數在 730 多,DTI 在 41 到 42 左右。LTV 高達 80 多。
This strong credit profile validates our belief that there is still a deep buyer pool that can purchase our homes and that as of today, student loans are not a material headwind. The current market slowing isn't just a qualification or affordability issue, but also a function of weakened consumer sentiment.
強勁的信用狀況證實了我們的信念:仍有大量買家可以購買我們的房屋,而且截至今天,學生貸款還不是實質的阻力。目前的市場放緩不僅是資格或負擔能力問題,也是消費者情緒減弱的結果。
Onto slide 8. Our balance sheet remained healthy at June 30, 2025, with cash of $930 million, nothing drawn on our credit facility, and net debt to cap of 14.6%. Additionally, earlier this month, we refinanced our revolving credit facility to extend the maturity from 2029 to 2030. We are committed to our long-term growth trajectory while managing to a strong balance sheet and maintaining our investment-grade credit rating.
轉到投影片 8。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,我們的資產負債表仍保持健康,現金為 9.3 億美元,沒有提取任何信貸額度,淨債務上限為 14.6%。此外,本月初,我們對循環信貸額度進行了再融資,將期限從 2029 年延長至 2030 年。我們致力於長期成長軌跡,同時管理強勁的資產負債表並維持投資等級信用評等。
As such, our net debt to cap ceiling remains in the mid-20% range. We aligned our capital spend with current market conditions. We reduced land acquisition and development spend, net of land development reimbursements to $509 million for the second quarter of 2025. This was a 12% decrease from $576 million in the prior year. Accordingly, we are lowering our full-year land spend target from $2.5 billion to $2 billion given today's economic uncertainties.
因此,我們的淨負債與上限比率仍維持在 20% 左右。我們根據當前的市場狀況調整了資本支出。我們將 2025 年第二季的土地收購和開發支出(扣除土地開發補償金)減少至 5.09 億美元。這比上年的 5.76 億美元下降了 12%。因此,鑑於當今經濟的不確定性,我們將全年土地支出目標從 25 億美元下調至 20 億美元。
We also shifted our capital dollars to return more cash to shareholders this quarter, exceeding our programmatic threshold. We again tripled our $15 million quarterly commitment in the second quarter of 2025, demonstrating that we can and will repurchase shares opportunistically based on market conditions. We spent $45 million to buy back over 674,000 shares in Q2, recognizing the current undervaluation of our stock.
本季我們也轉移了資本金,向股東返還更多現金,超過了我們的計畫門檻。2025 年第二季度,我們再次將季度承諾金額增加了兩倍,達到 1500 萬美元,這表明我們能夠並將根據市場情況適時回購股票。我們在第二季花了 4500 萬美元回購了超過 674,000 股股票,承認我們股票目前被低估。
To date, in 2025, we have spent $90 million on share buybacks, reducing our December 31, 2024, outstanding share accounts by almost 2%. As of June 30, 2025, $219 million remain available to repurchase under our share authorization program.
截至目前,我們在 2025 年已花費 9,000 萬美元用於股票回購,導致截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的流通股帳戶減少了近 2%。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,根據我們的股份授權計劃,仍有 2.19 億美元可供回購。
We increased our quarterly cash dividend 15% year over year to $0.43 per share in 2025 from $0.375 per share in 2024. Our cash dividends totaled $31 million in the second quarter of 2025 and $61 million year to date. We returned a total of $76 million of cash to shareholders in the second quarter of 2025 and $151 million for the first half of this year as we intentionally slowed our land spend, and we calibrated our capital allocations to maximize returns in prevailing market environment.
我們將季度現金股利從 2024 年的每股 0.375 美元年增 15% 至 2025 年的每股 0.43 美元。2025 年第二季我們的現金股利總額為 3,100 萬美元,年初至今的現金股利總額為 6,100 萬美元。由於我們有意放緩土地支出,並調整了資本配置以在當前市場環境下實現回報最大化,我們在 2025 年第二季度向股東返還了總計 7600 萬美元的現金,今年上半年則返還了 1.51 億美元。
Slide 9. In the second quarter of 2025, we put approximately 1,800 net new lots under control. This balance is net of the 1,800 lots that we terminated as part of our routine quarterly review of land deals that no longer met our underwriting standards. In the second quarter of 2024, we put nearly 8,700 net new lots under control. As of June 30, 2025, we owned or controlled a total of about 81,900 lots, equating to 5.3 years' supply of the last 12 month closings. We also had nearly 26,200 lots that were still undergoing diligence as of the end of the second quarter, giving our strong land portfolio (technical difficulty)
幻燈片 9。2025年第二季度,我們控制了約1,800個淨新地塊。這筆餘額是扣除我們在例行季度審查中終止的 1,800 個不再符合承保標準的土地交易後的餘額。2024年第二季度,我們控制了近8,700個淨新地塊。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,我們總共擁有或控制約 81,900 個地塊,相當於過去 12 個月收盤價的 5.3 年供應量。截至第二季末,我們還有近 26,200 個地塊仍在進行盡職調查,這為我們強大的土地投資組合提供了(技術難度)
As of June 30, we owned or controlled all of the land we need for the next several quarters. About 66% of our total lot inventory at June 30, 2025, and 2024, was owned and 34% optioned. Our maximum ceiling for option land remains in the 40% range.
截至 6 月 30 日,我們擁有或控制了未來幾季所需的所有土地。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日及 2024 年 6 月 30 日,我們的總地塊庫存中約有 66% 為自有,34% 為選擇權。我們的選擇土地的最大上限仍在 40% 的範圍內。
Finally, I'll direct you to slide 10 for our guidance. Due to volatility in the market at this time and our high backlog conversions, we have little visibility beyond the next quarter. Therefore, we are only providing Q3 guidance.
最後,我將引導您到第 10 張投影片以獲取我們的指導。由於目前市場波動以及我們的積壓訂單轉換量較高,我們對下一季之後的前景預測不多。因此,我們僅提供第三季指引。
For Q3 2025, we are projecting total home closings between 3,600 and 3,900 units, home closing revenue of $1.4 billion to $1.56 billion, home closing gross margin of around 20%, and effective tax rate of about 24.5%, and diluted EPS in the range of $1.51 to $1.86.
對於 2025 年第三季度,我們預計房屋成交總量在 3,600 至 3,900 套之間,房屋成交收入在 14 億美元至 15.6 億美元之間,房屋成交毛利率約為 20%,有效稅率約為 24.5%,稀釋每股收益在 1.51 美元至 1.86 美元之間。
With that, I'll turn it back over to Philippe.
說完這些,我就把發言權交還給菲利普。
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Hilla. In closing, I want to highlight on slide 11 that we have worked hard to create a business model that maximizes return and is flexible enough to allow us to navigate successfully through periods of economic transition. Our spec strategy provides a flexibility and efficient cost structure to maintain the right level WIP to live inventories.
謝謝你,希拉。最後,我想在第 11 張投影片上強調,我們一直努力創造一種能夠最大化回報且足夠靈活的商業模式,使我們能夠成功度過經濟轉型時期。我們的規格策略提供了靈活性和高效的成本結構,以維持適當的 WIP 等級和即時庫存。
We are offering consumers affordability and certainty in their home ownership journey and believe our go-to-market strategies makes us resilient as we compete with resale and grow our market share. In Q2, we achieved community count expansion and shorter cycle times to prepare us for future growth opportunities and also demonstrated our commitment to discipline land spend, and growth in the business while increasing our return of cash to shareholders. Through our operations and capital allocation strategy, we are focused on maximizing returns.
我們為消費者提供負擔得起的住房和確定性的購房體驗,並相信我們的行銷策略使我們在與轉售競爭和擴大市場份額時具有韌性。在第二季度,我們實現了社區數量的擴大和週期時間的縮短,為未來的成長機會做好了準備,同時也表明了我們致力於控制土地支出和業務成長,同時增加對股東的現金回報。透過我們的營運和資本配置策略,我們專注於實現回報最大化。
With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for instructions on the Q&A. Operator?
現在,我將把電話轉給接線員,以獲取有關問答的指示。操作員?
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And at this time, we will conduct our question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)
謝謝。此時,我們將進行問答環節。(操作員指示)
Trevor Allison, Wolfe Research.
特雷弗·艾利森(Trevor Allison),沃爾夫研究公司。
Trevor Allinson - Analyst
Trevor Allinson - Analyst
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Appreciate your high backlog conversion rate and the volatile environment really limits your visibility into the full-year volume. So I guess the question on what you're seeing regarding absorption rates on new communities, I think previously you'd expected that as you bring on a significant number of new communities, you would expect to see pretty good absorption rates, relative to the average on those. Can you just comment on how that is trended versus what you expected?
你好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。感謝您的高積壓轉換率,並且動蕩的環境確實限制了您對全年交易量的了解。所以我想問一下您所看到的新社區的吸收率,我想您之前曾預料到,隨著您引入大量新社區,您會看到相對於平均水平而言相當不錯的吸收率。您能否評論一下與您的預期相比趨勢如何?
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thank you for the question. It's trended pretty well. As you can see from the Q2 results, we opened up 50 stores and achieved 4.3 net sales per month in that quarter. So they opened up and met our expectations, as it relates to what we were thinking we were going to get from those communities.
是的。謝謝你的提問。它的趨勢非常好。從第二季的業績可以看出,我們在該季度開設了 50 家門市,每月實現 4.3 億美元的淨銷售額。因此他們開放了我們的期望,因為這與我們期望從這些社區獲得的東西有關。
Trevor Allinson - Analyst
Trevor Allinson - Analyst
Okay. Definitely encouraging to hear. And then the second question is somewhat related on community count specifically. You've had a really nice growth there expecting more in the second half. Can you talk about the cadence that you're expecting in the second half?
好的。聽到這個消息絕對令人鼓舞。第二個問題與社區數量具體相關。你們在那裡取得了非常好的成長,預計下半年會有更好的發展。能談談您對下半場的預期節奏嗎?
You talk about up double digits by the fourth quarter by any community count. Any additional color on what exactly you're thinking with double digits? And then with what you have in the pipeline, any early reads on where 2026 community count could grow? Thanks.
你說到第四季度,任何社區統計的數字都會上升到兩位數。關於你對兩位數的具體理解,還有其他解釋嗎?然後,根據您現有的計劃,對於 2026 年社區數量可能增長到什麼程度,有什麼早期預測嗎?謝謝。
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thank you again. I think this was a really big quarter for us, Q2; we knew we were going to get a big pop here. I think from here the rest of it is pretty even flowed between Q3 and Q4 to achieve the double-digit community growth. We still feel that we're going to end the year there.
是的。再次感謝您。我認為第二季度對我們來說非常重要;我們知道我們會在這裡獲得巨大的成功。我認為從現在開始,其餘部分將在第三季和第四季之間均勻流動,以實現兩位數的社區成長。我們仍然覺得我們將在那裡結束這一年。
As it relates to 2026, still doing a lot of planning around that. But we expect another solid year of double-digit growth between the beginning of that year and the end of 2026.
就 2026 年而言,我們仍在做大量規劃。但我們預計,從今年年初到 2026 年底,中國經濟將再次實現兩位數的穩健成長。
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. Trevor, I think we touched on this a little bit in various conversations, but the double-digit growth is not going to be 10.0, but it's also not going to be 20. So it's somewhere in between, but it's going to be north of 10.
是的。特雷弗,我想我們在各種對話中都談到了這一點,但這兩位數的增長不會是 10.0,也不會是 20。所以它介於兩者之間,但會在 10 以上。
Operator
Operator
Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.
艾倫·拉特納(Alan Ratner),澤爾曼與合夥人公司。
Alan Ratner - Analyst
Alan Ratner - Analyst
Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks as always for the detail. So first question on the volume outlook, understanding not updating the full-year guidance I'm just trying to think through how you're positioned from a volume standpoint for the remainder of the year.
嘿,大家好。早安.一如既往地感謝您的詳細資訊。因此,關於銷售前景的第一個問題,請理解不更新全年指導,我只是想從銷量的角度思考您在今年剩餘時間內的定位。
If I look at your homes under construction and the specs and backlog of about 8,700, and I look at the closings year to date, it would still seem like if the market cooperates here, your position to deliver 16,000-plus homes is like not too far off from where you were before. I just want to make sure I'm thinking about that correctly.
如果我看一下你們正在建造的房屋以及大約 8,700 套的規格和積壓量,再看看今年迄今為止的成交情況,似乎只要市場配合,你們交付 16,000 多套房屋的計劃就與以前相差無幾了。我只是想確保我對此的思考是正確的。
And I guess in general, are you scaling back spec starts at all here in the third quarter and will that have any impact on your ability to deliver homes this year or is that more of a '26 story?
我想,總的來說,你們是否會在第三季縮減規格開工規模,這會對你們今年交付房屋的能力產生影響嗎?還是這更像是 26 年的故事?
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thanks, Alan. I think you are thinking about it the right way. Q3, based on our high backlog conversion rate, is now going to be one of our lowest volume quarters because we basically closed out all the spring demand and then we obviously have July to start the quarter out. So that's really what's driving the lack of visibility and some of the macro conditions that we're experiencing. But we certainly have the community count and the inventory to achieve the numbers that you're mentioning. It's just a matter of whether the market will cooperate.
是的。謝謝,艾倫。我認為你的想法是正確的。根據我們較高的積壓轉換率,第三季將成為我們銷售最低的季度之一,因為我們基本上結束了所有的春季需求,而且我們顯然要在 7 月開始新季度。所以這才是導致我們目前所經歷的缺乏可見性和一些宏觀條件的真正原因。但我們確實有社區數量和庫存來達到您提到的數字。這只是市場是否配合的問題。
To your second question, we are slowing down starts because of our cycle times. And so we can reduce the amount of starts we have based on just the timing that's taken to build homes. And then we're ramping up starts because of our community count growth. But between those two things, I still think you'll see a slower Q3 to kind of match the seasonality of demand, but we're still starting quite a few specs in all these new communities that we're opening up between now and the end of the year.
對於您的第二個問題,由於我們的週期時間,我們正在放慢啟動速度。因此,我們可以根據建造房屋所需的時間來減少開工數量。隨著社區數量的成長,我們也開始加快腳步。但在這兩件事之間,我仍然認為你會看到第三季的成長速度會比較慢,以適應需求的季節性,但從現在到年底,我們仍然會在所有這些新社區中開始相當多的規格。
Alan Ratner - Analyst
Alan Ratner - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then just thinking through kind of cash, capital allocation, you've been buying back stock at a slightly greater rate than the kind of the quarterly commitment you've set forth. I'm just curious with you pulling back the land spend by $500 million, is there an opportunity -- or are you thinking about accelerating that buyback number even further? Because it would seem like that that should free up a pretty meaningful amount of cash in the back half of the year. Yeah, I don't know if I'm thinking about that correctly.
知道了。這很有幫助。然後,只要考慮現金和資本配置,您就會發現您回購股票的速度比您設定的季度承諾的速度略高一些。我只是好奇,你們將土地支出削減了 5 億美元,這是否有機會——或者你們是否考慮進一步加快回購金額?因為看起來這應該會在下半年釋放出相當可觀的現金。是的,我不知道我的想法是否正確。
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. We're definitely looking at rebalancing those two. Good catch on the fact that we're pulling back on the expected spend by $0.5 billion. So we're definitely going to be pressing on the gas on their repurchases while kind of just keeping an eye on the store. We do have quite a few communities opening, and all those need new specs as well, which is also a cash utilization for us.
是的。我們確實正在考慮重新平衡這兩者。我們很好地意識到了我們將預期支出削減了 5 億美元。因此,我們肯定會加強推動他們的回購,同時密切注意商店的情況。我們確實有不少社區開業,所有這些社區也都需要新的規格,這對我們來說也是現金利用。
So we're balancing all those pieces, but definitely an intentional rebalancing from the volume of land spend that maybe we projected coming into the year based on current economic conditions and redeploying that cash back into return of capital to shareholders.
因此,我們正在平衡所有這些部分,但肯定是有意重新平衡土地支出的數量,也許我們根據當前的經濟狀況預測今年的支出,並將這些現金重新部署為股東的資本回報。
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. And I would just say that with our stock trading where it is, it's just -- for us, you can expect us to continue to buy more than our programmatic commitment because of the value that we see in our stock.
是的。我只想說,就我們的股票交易情況而言,對於我們來說,你可以預期我們會繼續購買超過我們計劃承諾的數量,因為我們看到了股票的價值。
Alan Ratner - Analyst
Alan Ratner - Analyst
Well, based on my conversations with investors, I would imagine that that would be very well received, especially considering where the stock is at today.
嗯,根據我與投資者的談話,我認為這會受到熱烈歡迎,特別是考慮到今天的股票價格。
Operator
Operator
Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.
史蒂芬金 (Stephen Kim),Evercore ISI。
Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst
Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst
Yeah. Thanks a lot, guys. I appreciate the color. Touching up -- following up on the comment, I think, that Trevor made regarding this -- your new communities opening up being a boost to sales, am I right that communities, when they open up, they typically have a somewhat lower margin profile than when they're sort of later in their life? Is that a dynamic that, first of all, is true for you guys, and is that something we should be thinking about as to the impact of these communities on your margin?
是的。非常感謝大家。我很欣賞這個顏色。補充一下——我想,根據 Trevor 就此做出的評論——你們新社區的開放會促進銷售,我說得對嗎?新社區開放時的利潤率通常比它們後期開放時要低一些?首先,這對你們來說是一種真實的動態嗎?我們是否應該考慮這些社區對你們的利潤的影響?
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So yeah, I think traditionally when you open up a new community, you set it up to -- make sure you set it up to gain momentum because momentum is really important. It gives the consumer confidence. And so we certainly evaluate and make sure we price our new community openings to really achieve that momentum.
所以,是的,我認為傳統上當你開設一個新社區時,你會對其進行設置——確保你對其進行設置以獲得動力,因為動力非常重要。它給予消費者信心。因此,我們一定會進行評估並確保為新社區的開放定價,以真正實現這一勢頭。
I don't think it's fair to say that we open up new communities at lower margins just as a standard course of business. It's really sort of market by market. In today's environment, I think the theory of being more conservative when you open up to make sure you get those first sales is probably a reality just because of the amount of incentives out there in the market and whatnot. But I'd have to go back and look.
我認為,將以較低利潤率開闢新社區作為標準業務流程的說法並不公平。這確實是一個逐個市場的問題。在當今環境下,我認為在開放市場時採取更保守的政策以確保獲得第一批銷售的理論可能是現實,因為市場上存在大量激勵措施等等。但我必須回去看看。
A lot of the new communities we opened up this last quarter are really good locations and really good spots. So I feel pretty good that the margin profile was pretty good. But yes, to your point, we always traditionally try to open up a community and gain momentum, and usually, the number one lever to do that is pricing.
我們上個季度開放的許多新社區都擁有非常好的地理位置和地點。因此,利潤率狀況非常好,我感覺很好。但是的,正如您所說,我們總是傳統地嘗試開放一個社區並獲得動力,而通常,做到這一點的首要槓桿就是定價。
Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst
Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst
Yeah, appreciate that. Another question relates to some of the changes -- one of the changes you made in addition to guaranteeing move-in in 60 days. You've also changed the way in which your sales folk can cross-sell homes and communities that are not the one they're sitting in.
是的,非常感謝。另一個問題與一些變化有關——除了保證 60 天內入住之外,您還做出了一些改變。您也改變了銷售人員交叉銷售他們所在地區以外的房屋和社區的方式。
And I was curious, first of all, it seemed like it might be a really good thing for your strategy in terms of developing the relationships not just with the realtors but with also consumers who may be looking at more than one community. But I was wondering if you could give us some statistics on that? Like roughly what percent of your sales are done in a cross-sale manner?
我很好奇,首先,這似乎對您的策略來說是一件非常好的事情,因為不僅可以與房地產經紀人建立關係,還可以與可能關注多個社區的消費者建立關係。但我想知道您是否可以提供一些相關統計數據?例如,你們的銷售額中大約有多少百分比是以交叉銷售的方式完成的?
And secondarily, are you seeing any of your peers copying this or not? And if not, why do you think that is?
其次,您是否看到任何同行在抄襲此做法?如果不是,您認為原因是什麼?
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So I would say, first of all, the reason we're doing this, the cross-selling, is exactly what you highlighted. When we spoke to our customers and spoke to the realtors, they really create a relationship with a specific sales person and just because they don't want to buy a home in that community or the realtor doesn't want to sell a home in that community, they still want to work with that sales person. So cross-selling allows that relationship to translate across our communities, which is why we do it -- to build those deeper connections with our customers and with our realtors.
是的。所以我想說,首先,我們這樣做的原因,即交叉銷售,正是您所強調的。當我們與客戶和房地產經紀人交談時,他們確實與特定的銷售人員建立了關係,即使他們不想在那個社區買房,或者房地產經紀人不想在那個社區賣房,他們仍然想與那個銷售人員合作。因此,交叉銷售可以讓這種關係在我們的社區中轉化,這就是我們這樣做的原因——與我們的客戶和房地產經紀人建立更深的聯繫。
I'd have to get you stats on that, but I think it's pretty high because we're cross-selling across the entire company. So I think there's a lot of sales people in our business selling in communities that they don't -- quote, unquote aren't station to.
我必須向您提供相關統計數據,但我認為這個數字相當高,因為我們在整個公司範圍內進行交叉銷售。所以我認為我們公司中有很多銷售人員在他們不熟悉的社區進行銷售——引言,不引用。
But frankly, Stephen, we don't station them anymore. They are driving around, meeting with realtors, meeting with customers, showing homes, and we really don't tether on to a community anymore. So I think it's -- at some point, it's just going to become 100%.
但坦白說,史蒂芬,我們不再駐紮它們了。他們開車四處轉悠,與房地產經紀人會面,與客戶會面,展示房屋,我們真的不再局限於某個社區了。所以我認為,在某個時候,它會變成 100%。
The last thing you asked was whether competitors are following us. I would say yes, in some form or fashion. We see a lot of competitors starting to cross-sell. Lennar was one of the first ones to start doing it a long time ago in a couple of markets, but they probably still do it for different reasons.
你最後問的問題是競爭對手是否有在關注我們。我會以某種形式或方式回答是的。我們看到很多競爭對手開始交叉銷售。萊納 (Lennar) 是第一批在幾個市場開始這樣做的公司之一,但他們可能仍然在這樣做,原因各不相同。
They're still tethering their salespeople to a particular community but allowing them to cross sell. While in our case, we're not tethering them to that community, and all we do is cross-sell. I hope that's helpful.
他們仍然將銷售人員束縛在特定的社區,但允許他們進行交叉銷售。而在我們的案例中,我們並沒有將他們束縛在那個社區,我們所做的只是交叉銷售。我希望這有幫助。
Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst
Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst
Yeah. Appreciate it guys.
是的。感謝你們。
Operator
Operator
John Lovallo, UBS.
瑞銀的約翰·洛瓦洛。
John Lovallo - Analyst
John Lovallo - Analyst
Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions as well. Wanted to talk about the gross margin. So the third-quarter gross margin seems like it's expected to decline about 140 basis points sequentially. I know you guys pointed to lower closings given the new strategy, higher land cost, and higher incentives. So as a starting point, I was hoping maybe you could bucket those three categories as -- to pertain to the 140 basis points decline.
大家早安。也感謝您回答我的問題。想談談毛利率。因此,預計第三季毛利率將季減約 140 個基點。我知道你們指出,考慮到新策略、更高的土地成本和更高的激勵措施,成交量會更低。因此,作為起點,我希望您可以將這三個類別歸類為 - 與 140 個基點的下降有關。
And then importantly, it seems like the fourth-quarter gross margin is expected to step up from -- sequentially from the third quarter. I wonder if you could just help us kind of put some context around the magnitude of that potential step-up.
重要的是,第四季的毛利率似乎預計會比第三季有所上升。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們大致了解一下這種潛在升級的程度。
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. So we actually didn't give any guidance on Q4. So, I don't think we're going to have any discussion about that. However, the commentary probably still stands. We did note that there's going to be a lost leverage in Q3 in our prepared remarks, and you can see that from the volume projections that we provided in the guidance. And that's really a function of July being a little bit of a tougher month, and that pick-up that you're seeing subsequent to that is really not going to materialize in closings until Q4.
是的。所以我們實際上沒有對第四季度給予任何指導。所以,我認為我們不會討論這個問題。然而,該評論可能仍然有效。我們確實在準備好的評論中指出,第三季將會出現槓桿損失,您可以從我們在指南中提供的交易量預測中看到這一點。這其實是因為 7 月的情況比較艱難,而之後看到的回升實際上要到第四季才會真正實現。
So I think that you're seeing that lost leverage is the primary driver of the pull-back in margins. If you recall from discussions in prior years, it can be 75 to 100 bps in lost leverage in gross margin alone from volume. So as we're looking at our expectations for Q3, and we know that the volume is going to be less, that the majority of the pull-back that you're seeing is lost leverage. As I said, we didn't give any guidance into Q4, and we didn't reiterate our full-year guidance, but putting logic together, if we're expecting a different volume for the last quarter of the year, any lost leverage could potentially be recovered if the units increase at that point in time.
所以我認為,槓桿率的喪失是利潤率回落的主要驅動因素。如果您還記得前幾年的討論,那麼僅從銷售來看,毛利率的損失就可能達到 75 到 100 個基點。因此,當我們展望第三季的預期時,我們知道交易量將會減少,您所看到的大部分回檔都是槓桿的喪失。正如我所說,我們沒有對第四季度做出任何預測,也沒有重申全年預測,但從邏輯上講,如果我們預計今年最後一個季度的銷量會有所不同,那麼如果銷量在那個時間點增加,任何失去的槓桿率都有可能得到恢復。
So I think that that's the majority. I don't know that the other categories make up meaningful buckets. It's primarily the lost leverage.
所以我認為這是大多數。我不知道其他類別是否構成有意義的儲存桶。這主要是失去了槓桿作用。
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
And just to amplify a few things that you [highlighted], the most built-to-order builders, their lowest leverage quarter is going to be Q1 because they close out all their backlog in Q4. For us, based on our new strategy, it's going to be Q3.
為了進一步強調您強調的幾點,大多數按訂單生產的建築商,其槓桿率最低的季度將是第一季度,因為他們將在第四季度結清所有積壓訂單。對我們來說,根據我們的新策略,這將是第三季。
And traditionally, July is the slowest month of sales across the whole year. Sometimes, December can be slow too, but July is traditionally the slowest. And then we start to see volume pick back up between September, October, and November. So that's kind of what we're currently expecting. But right now, it's tough to see with everything that's going on.
傳統上,七月是全年銷售最慢的月份。有時,十二月也可能很慢,但七月傳統上是最慢的。然後我們開始看到九月、十月和十一月之間的交易量回升。這正是我們目前所期待的。但現在,鑑於發生的一切,很難看清情況。
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. When you think about the fact that we closed out such a material portion of our backlog and we're coming in with a lower backlog, there's not that cushion to go into it. So some of those closings were accelerated into Q2. The strong volume that we're going to have in the back half in in sales in Q3 isn't going to close until Q4. So it kind of creates this dip in Q3, which as Philippe said, is a different quarter for other builders.
是的。當你考慮到我們已經完成瞭如此重要的部分積壓訂單,而我們的積壓訂單數量卻減少了,那麼我們就沒有那麼多的緩衝空間了。因此,部分交易在第二季加速完成。我們在第三季後半段的強勁銷售勢頭要到第四季才會結束。所以這在某種程度上造成了第三季的下滑,正如菲利普所說,對其他建築商來說,這是一個不同的季度。
John Lovallo - Analyst
John Lovallo - Analyst
Yeah. And I think that's really helpful clarity, particularly when people see the 20% in the third quarter and start trying to run rate that. And I think reiterating the 22.5% to 23.5% also is really helpful.
是的。我認為這確實很有幫助,特別是當人們看到第三季的 20% 並開始嘗試計算這一比率時。我認為重申 22.5% 至 23.5% 也確實有幫助。
But the second question would be, in terms of land cost inflation, curious what you're seeing today. And I know you talked about the potential for rebidding and some potential lower development costs. Curious when that may start rolling through. Is that fourth quarter, or is that more in 2026? And what would you expect kind of that land cost inflation to look like as we move into 2026?
但第二個問題是,就土地成本通膨而言,您今天看到了什麼?我知道您談到了重新競標的可能性以及降低開發成本的可能性。好奇什麼時候會開始實現這一點。那是第四季嗎,還是 2026 年以後?您預計到 2026 年土地成本通膨將會如何?
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So just to give you a feel for what's happening in the land market -- and I'm not sure I'm going to say anything different than what you've heard from others because we're all sort of competing for the same land -- but generally, the land market is slowing, which creates some opportunities to restructure deals, mostly terms and timing, breaking up deals into multiple takes, potentially closing a deal closer to being shovel-ready and things like that.
是的。因此,只是為了讓您了解一下土地市場的情況——我不確定我說的是否會與您從其他人那裡聽到的不同,因為我們都在競爭同一塊土地——但總的來說,土地市場正在放緩,這創造了一些重組交易的機會,主要是條款和時間,將交易分成多個部分,有可能使交易更接近於準備就緒的狀態等等。
We haven't really seen land prices, decline anywhere except a few distressed pieces here and there in certain locations. I'm not sure we should expect that at all until next year. I think most land sellers are patient. And we'll wait to see if this thing extends into 2026 before they start getting a little bit more [religion] on what their land's worth.
除了某些地方零星的幾塊不良土地外,我們實際上並沒有看到任何土地價格下跌。我不確定我們是否應該在明年之前期待這一點。我認為大多數土地賣家都是有耐心的。我們將拭目以待,看看這種情況是否會延續到 2026 年,屆時他們才會開始更相信自己的土地價值。
As far as rebidding land development jobs, we have seen some green shoots recently as we've gone out and rebid new jobs that we're about to start to develop for future phases of existing communities. We've seen more competitive bids, more people bidding. And therefore, we've seen some potential cost savings there.
就重新招標土地開發工作而言,我們最近看到了一些曙光,因為我們已經開始重新招標我們即將開始為現有社區的未來階段開發的新工作。我們看到了更具競爭力的投標,也看到了更多人參與投標。因此,我們看到了一些潛在的成本節約。
Those obviously wouldn't impact until the back half of 2026. It usually takes about six to nine months to develop land. We're sitting here in August -- sorry, July, almost August. So at the earliest you wouldn't really see that impact our P&L until second quarter, probably more like third quarter, fourth quarter of 2026.
顯然,這些要到 2026 年下半年才會產生影響。開發土地通常需要大約六到九個月的時間。我們現在正處於八月——抱歉,是七月,快到八月了。因此,最早也要到第二季度,或者更可能是 2026 年第三季或第四季度,你才會真正看到它對我們的損益表的影響。
Operator
Operator
Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。
Charles Perron-Piche - Analyst
Charles Perron-Piche - Analyst
Hi, everyone. This is Charles Perron from Susan's team. Just first on the -- with the rising for-sell inventory that we're seeing in the markets, are you making further changes to your approach to broker commission to support traffic and volume, especially in your new communities?
大家好。我是蘇珊團隊的查爾斯·佩隆 (Charles Perron)。首先,隨著我們在市場上看到的待售庫存不斷增加,您是否會進一步改變經紀人佣金的方式以支持客流量和交易量,特別是在您的新社區?
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
No. I mean, I think our enterprise-level strategy is to directly try to mirror and compete with the existing home market. So as that inventory comes back, we want to be a compelling choice to buy a new home over a used home. And as part of that strategy, we believe having a consistent and reliable commission structure for our realtors that they can count on, it's a key part of that.
不。我的意思是,我認為我們的企業級策略是直接嘗試反映和與現有的國內市場競爭。因此,隨著庫存的回升,我們希望成為購買新房子而非二手房的有力選擇。作為該策略的一部分,我們相信為我們的房地產經紀人提供一致、可靠且值得信賴的佣金結構是其中的關鍵部分。
We operate at a market rate, whatever the market rate is for that commission in that market, and in that submarket is where we position our external commissions. And that's it.
我們按照市場價格運營,無論該市場中該佣金的市場價格是多少,我們都將外部佣金定位在該子市場中。就是這樣。
I think there are, right now, in the competitive market there are a lot of people doing a lot of different incentives including doing some different realtor bonuses and things like that. So that's kind of an industry thing, not a Meritage thing. And in certain communities, we may do that as well where realtors are really driving the customer base in that market.
我認為,目前在競爭激烈的市場中,很多人都在採取不同的激勵措施,包括提供不同的房地產經紀人獎金等等。所以這是一種產業現象,而不是 Meritage 現象。在某些社區,我們可能也會這樣做,因為房地產經紀人確實推動著該市場的客戶群。
But generally, we don't do anything unique when we open up a new community versus an existing community. Our realtor strategy is market-based at kind of the MFA level.
但一般來說,當我們開闢一個新社區而不是現有社區時,我們不會做任何獨特的事情。我們的房地產經紀人策略是基於 MFA 級別的市場。
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. And just to clarify, I think a couple of our peers have already mentioned this, there's no denying the fact that that resale inventory is increasing across the US, but it's not necessarily a head-on competitor in All of our markets. The inventory that's coming online isn't necessarily entry level. A lot of it's aging.
是的。需要澄清的是,我想我們的一些同行已經提到了這一點,不可否認的是,美國各地的轉售庫存正在增加,但它不一定是我們所有市場的正面競爭對手。上線的庫存不一定是入門的。很多都已經老化了。
And as we mentioned, you typically are not able to get a financing incentive when you're buying from an individual homeowner. So it's not -- it hasn't created the drag that we had expected in the markets that have seen the return of the resale inventory. It's certainly there, and it's certainly a competitor, but it's not a head-to-head competitor.
正如我們所提到的,當您從個人房主那裡購買房屋時,通常無法獲得融資激勵。因此,它並沒有對轉售庫存回升的市場造成我們預期的拖累。它確實存在,也確實是一個競爭對手,但它並不是一個正面交鋒的競爭對手。
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I think that's a really important point. The incentives we're seeing out there aren't in the existing home space. The incentives that we're competing with right now are more in the new home space.
是的。我認為這是一個非常重要的觀點。我們所看到的激勵措施並不存在於現有的家庭空間。我們目前面臨的競爭誘因更多的是在新房領域。
Charles Perron-Piche - Analyst
Charles Perron-Piche - Analyst
That's very helpful color. Thanks, guys, for that. And it's nice to see that stick-and-brick costs were declining year over year this quarter. When you consider the recent decline in lumber and OSB against the potential for tariffs flowing through your P&L, do you see opportunities for further reductions going forward in your stick-and-bricks? And how does this play out in your third-quarter margin outlook?
這是非常有用的顏色。謝謝大家。很高興看到本季實體成本年減。當您考慮到近期木材和定向刨花板價格的下跌以及可能影響您損益表的關稅時,您是否認為您的傳統產品未來有機會進一步降價?這對您第三季的利潤前景有何影響?
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So most of our third-quarter homes have already been started. Actually, all of our third-quarter homes have already been started. So the guidance that we provided includes the sticks-and-bricks that we're experiencing right now.
是的。因此,我們第三季的大部分房屋已經開工。實際上,我們第三季的所有房屋都已開工。因此,我們提供的指導包括我們目前正在經歷的實際困難。
There's always an opportunity to reset, so our teams never stop rebidding, never stop competing for a lower price. I think several of our peers have also said that tariffs have not really flown through our numbers in any material way. We've been able to successfully push back on any tariff asks, and there haven't been nearly as many as we had anticipated.
總是有重新開始的機會,所以我們的團隊永遠不會停止重新競標,永遠不會停止競爭更低的價格。我想我們的幾位同行也說過,關稅其實並沒有對我們的數據產生任何實質的影響。我們已經成功拒絕了所有關稅要求,而且要求的金額遠沒有我們預期的那麼多。
Kind of trying to read the tea leaves is difficult, but at this point in time, we're not modeling any expectation for increases in our direct. We actually think that there's potential savings. We haven't modeled incremental savings, although we're going to continue to push internally to find those.
試圖解讀茶葉是困難的,但目前,我們還沒有對直接增加的任何預期進行建模。我們確實認為存在節省的潛力。我們還沒有對增量節省進行建模,儘管我們將繼續在內部努力尋找這些節省。
Operator
Operator
Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的麥可雷豪特。
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
Hi. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Wanted to start off with some of the comments around how to think about closing for the full year. I think Alan brought that up. And obviously, you have a decent amount perhaps of a thought around volume, I would assume, already. Gross margins, obviously, taking a little bit of a downward move in the third quarter and sensibly assuming a relatively stable backdrop. I know that might be a big assumption, but I'd assume that there's some way to think about 4Q even at this point.
你好。謝謝。大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。首先想談談關於如何考慮全年收尾的一些評論。我認為艾倫提到了這一點。顯然,我認為您可能已經對音量有了相當多的思考。顯然,毛利率在第三季略有下降,並合理地假設了相對穩定的背景。我知道這可能是一個很大的假設,但我認為即使在這個時候,還是有某種方法可以考慮 4Q。
I'm wondering about the pulling of the full-year guidance at this point in the year and if there's other variables outside of just what you're seeing today in terms of maybe being a little less certain that maybe we're not fully appreciating in terms of pulling the guidance rather than perhaps just adding a little bit of a wider range or maybe lowering the high end of the range versus what you had three months ago.
我想知道在今年這個時候下調全年指引的情況,以及除了今天看到的情況之外是否還有其他變量,這些變量可能不太確定,也許我們沒有完全理解下調指引的原因,而不是僅僅增加一點範圍,或者可能降低範圍的高端(與三個月前相比)。
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. It's a great question. I think it's all just really built on the lack of visibility we have right now with our current backlog. And you start to model out our current community count and our guidance for Q3, you can back into what our absorptions per store is. So I think that's pretty indicative of what we think the market's going to give to us.
是的。這是一個很好的問題。我認為這一切都是因為我們目前對目前積壓的工作缺乏了解。當你開始模擬我們目前的社區數量和我們對第三季度的指導時,你就可以回到我們每家商店的吸收量。所以我認為這很能說明我們認為市場會給予我們什麼。
And then we're optimistic that demand will trend the way it normally does seasonally. The example I gave earlier was that usually August and September and October pick up meaningfully from July. But based on the macro backdrop, I think we just don't -- we're not really too ready to commit to that until we see it.
然後我們樂觀地認為需求將按照正常的季節性趨勢發展。我之前舉的例子是,通常八月、九月和十月的價格會比七月有顯著回升。但基於宏觀背景,我認為我們只是不會——在我們看到它之前,我們還沒有準備好做出承諾。
July will close this quarter. August will close this quarter. If September is strong and October [followed the course], and our community count that's going to happen in the back half of the year, we can get to a pretty good number full year. But until we experience that, I just think that given our low backlog rate, it's tough to continue to giving out full-year guidance.
7月將結束本季。八月將結束本季。如果 9 月表現強勁、10 月也能保持良好勢頭,再加上我們在下半年進行的社區統計,那麼全年我們就能取得相當不錯的成績。但在我們經歷這種情況之前,我認為,鑑於我們的積壓率較低,很難繼續提供全年指引。
That's the kind of discussion we had with our Board and everyone else around the company. And we thought that was in our best interest.
這就是我們與董事會以及公司其他所有人的討論。我們認為這符合我們的最大利益。
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. So I'll just add; this is very, very obvious, but I'm just going to say it anyway because it needs to be said, if you look at the backlog that we have coming into the quarter at 1,700 units, we got it to 3,600 to 3,900 closings, we don't even have all of our closings yet for Q3. We have zero closings identified yet for Q4. So just because of the current market dynamics, we thought it didn't make sense to put a number out there and potentially be wrong one way or the other, up or down. We didn't think it was a responsible action to put a number out there that's, at this point, a guess.
是的。所以我只想補充一點;這是非常非常明顯的,但我還是要說,因為需要說一下,如果你看看我們本季度的積壓訂單量為 1,700 台,我們已經將其關閉到 3,600 到 3,900 台,我們甚至還沒有完成第三季度的所有關閉工作。目前我們尚未發現第四季有任何成交。因此,僅僅因為當前的市場動態,我們認為公佈一個數字是沒有意義的,而且不管是上漲還是下跌,這個數字都有可能出錯。我們認為,公佈這個目前還只是猜測的數字是不負責任的行為。
The market dynamics are moving around so quickly. It's tough to gauge them. We have a good level of confidence about Q3, even though we're coming into the quarter with less than half of those closings. So I think that, at this point, when we see market conditions stabilize and we see the community count opening trends stabilized, then we'll be able to provide better guidance on a go-forward basis.
市場動態瞬息萬變。很難去衡量它們。儘管進入第三季時我們的成交量還不到一半,但我們對第三季仍充滿信心。因此我認為,當我們看到市場狀況穩定下來,看到社區計數開放趨勢穩定下來時,我們將能夠在未來提供更好的指導。
But unlike many of our peers, we don't have any units currently sold beyond the current quarter. So it's really just a very educated guess on our end, which didn't seem like the right call.
但與許多同行不同的是,我們目前還沒有任何產品在本季之後就售出。所以這實際上只是我們根據事實做出的一個猜測,但似乎不是正確的猜測。
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
Right. No, I appreciate it. I just thought I'd kind of probe it a little bit more. So I appreciate you having the patience to answer that.
正確的。不,我很感激。我只是想進一步探究一下。所以我感謝您有耐心回答這個問題。
Secondly, I wanted to kind of explore a little bit on the gross margin side. You said, Hilla, that the 3Q decline versus 2Q primarily due to reduced leverage. But when I look at what you're expecting to generate from a revenue standpoint versus the back half of '24 -- you averaged about a 24% margin in the back half of '24. Your revenue guidance for third quarter, if you kind of -- it's a little bit less than the back-half average, but clearly there's a the change in cost structure or profitability.
其次,我想稍微探討一下毛利率方面的問題。希拉,您說第三季相對於第二季的下降主要是由於槓桿率降低。但是,當我從收入角度來看您預計與 24 年下半年相比會產生什麼收入時,我發現 24 年下半年的平均利潤率約為 24%。您對第三季的收入預期,如果是這樣的話——它比下半年的平均水平略低,但顯然成本結構或盈利能力發生了變化。
And I'm just kind of wondering in terms of year over year over the last several quarters -- actually maybe perhaps just more year to date, what have you seen in terms of headwinds from higher specifically just incentives, either financing incentives or just a more challenging pricing backdrop, that's impacted the gross margin year to date, and if you've seen that trend, presumably a headwind, continue throughout 2Q and you expect that to continue into 3Q in terms of incremental headwinds?
我只是有點好奇,就過去幾個季度的同比情況而言——實際上可能只是今年迄今為止的情況,您認為更高的具體激勵措施(無論是融資激勵措施還是更具挑戰性的定價背景)帶來了哪些不利因素,這些因素影響了今年迄今為止的毛利率,如果您發現這種趨勢(大概是不利因素)會持續整個第二季度,並且您預計這種趨勢會持續到第三季度,出現不利因素?
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah. So I think this is a good point that the dynamics are fairly different than they were in 2024, right? It's primarily the incentive environment. So if you look at our ASP year over year, it's quite a material difference, right? I think we were from [411,000 to 387,000]. So it's that ASP differential that's causing the margin pullback in the ASP differential. A little bit of it is mix and product -- geographic mix and product -- but a big piece of it is increased use of incentives.
是的。所以我認為這是一個很好的觀點,即目前的動態與 2024 年相比有很大不同,對嗎?這主要是激勵環境。因此,如果你逐年查看我們的平均售價,你會發現有很大的差異,對嗎?我想我們來自[411,000 到 387,000]。因此,ASP 差異導致了 ASP 差異的利潤率回落。其中一小部分是組合和產品——地理組合和產品——但很大一部分是增加激勵措施的使用。
So as we kind of talked about it in the prepared remarks, there's a lot of buyer hesitancy. So even though folks may be able to qualify for a home, they want that comfort and security of that lower affordability point to get them over the fence to make that purchasing decision. So what we're seeing is an increased use of financing incentives.
正如我們在準備好的演講中談到的那樣,有很多買家猶豫不決。因此,即使人們可能有資格買房,他們也希望較低負擔能力點的舒適性和安全性能讓他們下定決心做出購買決定。因此,我們看到融資激勵措施的使用增加。
The financing incentive cost hasn't moved too much, but the number of folks that are asking for that financing incentive to be included with their home purchase has increased. So that's really the pullback that you're seeing in margin where you're looking at '24 to '25, and then kind of sequentially from Q1 to Q2 to Q3, it's really that increased utilization that is the main driver. Our costs are actually -- as we mentioned, are coming down.
融資激勵成本沒有太大變化,但要求將融資激勵納入購房計畫的人數增加。因此,這實際上是您在 24 年至 25 年間看到的利潤率回落,然後按順序從第一季到第二季度再到第三季度,利用率的提高才是主要驅動力。正如我們所提到的,我們的成本實際上正在下降。
So we're not really seeing anything else change in the profit equation. It's really just the fact that the topline number is lower because of that of that incentive usage. As a reminder, I know different builders record that differently. For us, that comes right off the top; it reduces ASP. We don't have it in financial services. So it's a function of reduced revenue, which for us, obviously, affects margin versus maybe some other folks that have it rolling through a different line item.
因此,我們實際上沒有看到利潤方程中的任何其他變化。事實上,由於使用了激勵措施,營業額較低。提醒一下,我知道不同的建築商對此有不同的記錄。對我們來說,這至關重要;它降低了平均售價。我們在金融服務領域沒有這種服務。因此,這是收入減少的結果,對我們來說,這顯然會影響利潤率,而其他一些透過不同項目進行收入減少的人則可能受影響。
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
And that's a great point, Hilla. And obviously, that also kind of ties into when you were talking about reduced operating leverage. I assume it's fair to say, or maybe not, maybe you can clarify, reduced operating leverage because of less revenue be -- that's really because of the increased use of incentives that's ultimately driving the lower gross margin. And the reduced operating leverage is a byproduct of those higher incentives. Is that fair or -- ?
希拉,你的觀點非常好。顯然,這也與您談論的降低經營槓桿有關。我認為可以公平地說,或者可能不是,也許你可以澄清一下,營業槓桿降低是因為收入減少——這實際上是因為激勵措施的使用增加,最終導致毛利率下降。而降低的經營槓桿是這些更高激勵措施的副產品。這樣公平嗎?-- ?
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Exactly. So the reduced leverage both as a component in gross margin and all the way down to SG&A right? Again, folks that are recording that as a financial services reduction, it's not. It's not showing in their SG&A. So our SG&A control has actually been very tight, but because of the lower per home ASP, the net percentage calculation is increasing even though the dollars are kind of doing what we thought that they could and should be doing. So you're 100% right, Mike.
確切地。那麼降低的槓桿率既是毛利率的一個組成部分,也是銷售、一般和行政費用的一部分,對嗎?再說一遍,有人將其記錄為金融服務減少,但事實並非如此。這並沒有體現在他們的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 中。因此,我們的銷售、一般和行政費用控制實際上非常嚴格,但由於每套房屋的平均售價較低,儘管美元在按照我們認為的可以而且應該的方式運作,但淨百分比計算仍在增加。所以你完全正確,麥克。
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
Okay. And then one last quick clarification, Hilla. You said earlier in the call that -- you were talking about year-over-year community count growth, I wasn't sure if you're referring to year-end '25 year-over-year growth or year-end '26 -- was an answer to a question talking about '26. And you said not 10.0%, but not 20%. I wasn't sure if you were referring to the year-end '25 or year-end '26 in terms of year-over-year growth.
好的。最後再快速澄清一下,希拉。您之前在電話中說過——您談論的是社區數量的同比增長,我不確定您指的是 25 年底的同比增長還是 26 年底的同比增長——這是對 26 年問題的回答。而且您說的不是 10.0%,也不是 20%。我不確定您指的是 25 年末還是 26 年末的同比增長。
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
You know what? Both. It's going to be both. So for sure '25, and we're expecting double-digit growth in '26 as well.
你知道嗎?兩個都。兩者皆有。因此,我們確信 25 年和 26 年都會達到兩位數的成長。
Operator
Operator
Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.
美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
Hi. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I was just following up on some of the prior questions on the fixed cost side. Can you give some color on the fixed costs that are in cost of goods? It would be really helpful if we could get a dollar amount so we sort of break out what the deleverage could be in the third quarter and what the leverage was in the second quarter?
你好。早上好,感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想回答一下之前關於固定成本方面的一些問題。能否詳細說明商品成本中的固定成本?如果我們能夠得到一個美元金額,那麼我們就能算出第三季的去槓桿率是多少以及第二季的槓桿率是多少,這將非常有幫助。
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. That's too detailed. We don't go into components of gross margin, but you guys can probably back into it if we're giving you the lost leverage pieces. We can tell you that it's mostly people costs, right?
是的。說的太詳細了。我們不深入研究毛利率的組成部分,但如果我們給你們失去的槓桿部分,你們可能會回到毛利率中。我們可以告訴你,這主要是人力成本,對嗎?
So there's superintendents and land acq and land dev team members that no matter how many homes we sell, they're still working. So it's really the leveraging of the human capital that's the primary driver.
因此,無論我們銷售多少房屋,主管、土地收購和土地開發團隊成員仍在工作。因此,人力資本的利用才是真正的主要動力。
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
Got it. Just the -- so the 140-basis-point step-down from 2Q to 3Q, that's all the leverage; that's not higher incentives quarter over quarter?
知道了。只是——所以從第二季到第三季下降了 140 個基點,這就是所有的槓桿;這不是每季都有更高的激勵嗎?
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
No. So it's not all deleverage. I think we've gone on record many times in the past that deleveraging from your highest quarter to your lowest quarter is typically 75 to 100 bps. So it's not the 140 basis points; it's just a large portion of that pullback. The rest is a million other factors going forwards and backwards -- product mix, geographic mix. It's a lot of other little things here and there.
不。所以這並非全是去槓桿。我認為我們過去已經多次記錄過,從最高季度到最低季度的去槓桿率通常為 75 到 100 個基點。所以這不是 140 個基點;這只是回呼的很大一部分。其餘的則是上百萬個其他因素的互動──產品組合、地理組合。這裡和那裡還有很多其他的小事。
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I mean, we're not currently thinking that incentives are going to rise between Q2 and Q3. They're already pretty high. But certainly July is a tough month, and we see some pretty aggressive stuff out there in July to kind of get through the summer slowdown.
是的。我的意思是,我們目前並不認為激勵措施會在第二季和第三季之間增加。它們已經相當高了。但七月無疑是一個艱難的月份,我們看到七月出現了一些相當激進的舉措,以度過夏季的低迷期。
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
Got it. Okay. So the fixed cost, the 75 basis points roughly from 2Q to 3Q of that. Okay.
知道了。好的。因此,固定成本從第二季到第三季約為 75 個基點。好的。
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah.
是的。
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
That's super helpful. And then in terms of the community count growth outlook, the double digit this year and then also targeting that for next year, can you talk about how many of those communities are in newer markets or expanding into additional markets versus places where there are like -- in the existing markets that you have today?
這非常有幫助。然後就社區數量成長前景而言,今年將達到兩位數,並且明年也將實現這一目標,您能否談談這些社區中有多少位於較新的市場或正在擴展到其他市場,以及有多少位於現有市場中?
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So we went into Jacksonville in Utah recently -- a couple of years ago. And then, of course, we bought Elliott Homes recently, which got us into the Gulf Coast. So other than those three, all the new community count growth we're talking about for this year or next year is in our existing footprint.
是的。幾年前,我們最近去了猶他州的傑克遜維爾。當然,我們最近收購了 Elliott Homes,這讓我們進入了墨西哥灣沿岸市場。因此,除了這三個之外,我們談論的今年或明年的所有新社區數量增長都在我們現有的範圍內。
But I would say we are overinvesting obviously in Jacksonville, Utah, and the Gulf Coast because we want to gain scale there. Although the Elliott Homes transaction came with almost 5,000 lots, so we have quite a few lots through that acquisition. But there is no new community growth between now and next year in markets that we're currently not in.
但我想說,我們顯然在傑克遜維爾、猶他州和墨西哥灣沿岸進行了過度投資,因為我們想在那裡擴大規模。儘管 Elliott Homes 交易涉及近 5,000 塊地皮,但我們透過那次收購獲得了相當多的地皮。但從現在到明年,在我們目前尚未進入的市場中,不會有新的社區成長。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And that ends our question-and-answer session. I'll hand the floor back to Phillippe Lord for closing remarks.
謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把發言權交還給菲利普·洛德 (Phillippe Lord) 來做結束語。
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thanks. I appreciate everyone joining our call today. Thank you so much for your interest in our organization, and we look forward to seeing everyone next quarter. Appreciate it very much.
是的。謝謝。我感謝今天參加我們電話會議的各位。非常感謝您對我們組織的關注,我們期待下個季度與大家見面。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, and that concludes today's call. All parties may now disconnect. Have a good day.
謝謝,今天的電話會議到此結束。各方現在都可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。