Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Meritage Homes fourth quarter 2024 analyst call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, it is now my pleasure to introduce Emily Tadano, Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG. Emily, you may now begin.

問候。歡迎參加 Meritage Homes 2024 年第四季分析師電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在，我很高興介紹投資者關係和 ESG 副總裁 Emily Tadano。艾米麗，你現在可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our analyst call to discuss our fourth quarter 2024 results. We issued the press release yesterday after the market closed. You can find it along with the slides we'll refer to during this call on our website at investors.meritagehomes.com or by selecting the Investor Relations link at the bottom of our home page.

謝謝您，接線生。早安，歡迎參加我們的分析師電話會議，討論我們 2024 年第四季的業績。我們昨天在市場收盤後發布了新聞稿。您可以在我們的網站 investor.meritagehomes.com 上找到它以及我們在本次電話會議中參考的幻燈片，或者透過選擇我們主頁底部的「投資者關係」連結找到它。

Please refer to slide 2 cautioning you that our statements during this call as well as in the earnings release and accompanying slides contain forward-looking statements. Those and any other projections represent the current opinions of management, which are subject to change at any time, and we assume no obligation to update them. Any forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain.

請參閱投影片 2，提醒您我們在本次電話會議以及收益報告和隨附幻燈片中的聲明包含前瞻性陳述。這些以及任何其他預測均代表管理層的當前意見，這些意見可能隨時發生變化，我們不承擔更新這些意見的義務。任何前瞻性陳述本質上都是不確定的。

Our actual results may be materially different than our expectations due to a wide variety of risk factors, which we have identified and listed on this slide as well as in our earnings release and most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically our 2023 annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent 10-Qs. We have also provided a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our earnings release as compared to their closest related GAAP measures.

由於各種風險因素，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預期有重大差異，我們已在此投影片以及我們的收益報告和最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中識別和列出這些風險因素，特別是我們 2023 年 10-K 表年度報告和隨後的 10-Q 表。我們也提供了收益報告中提及的某些非 GAAP 財務指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標的對帳表。

As a reminder, on today's call and in our earnings presentation, the first quarter 2025 guidance reflects the 2-for-1 stock split completed on January 2, 2025. However, historical metrics for 2024 and earlier are not adjusted for the stock split. With us today to discuss our results are Steve Hilton, Executive Chairman; Phillippe Lord, CEO; and Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and CFO of Meritage Homes.

提醒一下，在今天的電話會議和我們的收益報告中，2025 年第一季的指引反映了 2025 年 1 月 2 日完成的二比一股票分割。不過，2024 年及之前的歷史指標並未根據股票分割進行調整。今天與我們一起討論業績的有執行主席史蒂夫希爾頓 (Steve Hilton)； Phillippe Lord，執行長；以及 Meritage Homes 執行副總裁兼財務長 Hilla Sferruzza。

We expect today's call to last about an hour. A replay will be available on our website later today. I'll now turn it over to Mr. Hilton. Steve?

我們預計今天的通話將持續約一個小時。今天晚些時候我們將在網站上提供重播。現在我將把話題交給希爾頓先生。史蒂夫？

Thank you, Emily. Welcome to everyone listening in our call. Today, I'll start by highlighting our 2024 results. Philippe will cover how our new strategy drove our results and talk about our quarterly performance. Hilla will provide a financial overview for the fourth quarter and forward-looking guidance.

謝謝你，艾米麗。歡迎大家收聽我們的電話會議。今天，我首先要介紹我們 2024 年的表現。Philippe 將介紹我們的新策略如何推動我們的業績並談論我們的季度業績。Hilla 將提供第四季度的財務概覽和前瞻性指引。

First, let me start by welcoming our newest Board member, Ms. Geisha Williams, to Meritage. We look forward to her insights and contributions to our Board. The Board has been committed to continuous and ongoing Board refreshment in order to balance institutional knowledge from long-tenured directors with fresh perspectives from new members.

首先，我歡迎我們最新的董事會成員 Geisha Williams 女士加入 Meritage。我們期待她為我們的董事會提供見解和貢獻。董事會一直致力於持續不斷更新董事會，以平衡長期任職董事的機構知識與新成員的新觀點。

Over the past five years, we have reduced the average tenure of our Board members, enhanced the diversity of perspectives and experiences of our Board by adding five new directors. Now let's turn to our results. The fourth quarter of 2024 capped off another representative year for Meritage.

在過去五年中，我們增加了五名新董事，縮短了董事會成員的平均任期，並增強了董事會觀點和經驗的多樣性。現在我們來看看結果。2024 年第四季為 Meritage 又一個代表性的年份畫上了句號。

Our fourth quarter 2024 deliveries of 4,044 homes combined with home closing gross margin of 23.2% and SG&A leverage of 10.8% resulting in diluted EPS of $4.72. 2025 marks both the official start of the first full year of operations under our new move-in strategy and Meritage's 40th year anniversary.

我們在 2024 年第四季交付了 4,044 套房屋，房屋成交毛利率為 23.2%，銷售、一般及行政費用槓桿率為 10.8%，攤薄每股收益為 4.72 美元。 2025 年既是我們新進駐策略下正式開始營運的第一個完整年度，也是 Meritage 成立 40 週年。

Over the past four decades, we've been on an incredible journey from the first home we built in Arizona to now be built nearly 200,000 homes for families across 12 states. We have a great management team at Meritage and our commitment to growing the business has driven us to where we are today.

在過去的四十年裡，我們經歷了一段不可思議的歷程，從在亞利桑那州建造的第一所房屋，到現在為 12 個州的家庭建造了近 20 萬棟房屋。Meritage 擁有出色的管理團隊，我們致力於發展業務，推動我們取得了今天的成就。

To celebrate this anniversary, I'd like to recap some highlights from the full year 2024 and reflect on Meritage's success over the last several years. We generated our highest annual closing volume of 15,611 homes, and despite our average sales price coming down to below $400,000 by the end of the year, we still achieved a company high closing revenue of $6.3 billion in 2024.

為了慶祝這個週年紀念日，我想回顧一下 2024 年全年的一些亮點，並反思 Meritage 在過去幾年取得的成功。我們的年度成交量最高，為 15,611 套房屋，儘管到年底我們的平均售價已降至 40 萬美元以下，但我們在 2024 年仍然實現了公司最高的 63 億美元的成交收入。

Our full-year home closing gross margin of 24.9% remained historically elevated and was still above our long-term target. We are proud of what we were able to accomplish this year as we navigate through a volatile mortgage rate environment. Our book value per share expanded 21% over a three-year compounded average growth rate from 2022 to $143.98 per share.

我們全年房屋成交毛利率為 24.9%，仍處於歷史高位，高於我們的長期目標。在經歷了動盪的抵押貸款利率環境後，我們為今年所取得的成就感到自豪。我們的每股帳面價值從 2022 年起三年複合平均成長率成長了 21%，達到每股 143.98 美元。

We have generated and maintained a mid- to high double-digit return on equity over the last three years ending 2024 with an ROE of 16.1%. We earned over $1 billion in annual EBITDA for each year over the last three years. Our construction cycle times have returned to our historical average of 120 calendar days in the fourth quarter of 2024.

截至 2024 年的過去三年中，我們實現並維持了中高兩位數的股本回報率，股本回報率為 16.1%。過去三年，我們每年的 EBITDA 都超過 10 億美元。我們的施工週期已於 2024 年第四季恢復至歷史平均 120 個日曆天。

At the peak of the supply chain issues in 2023, we were over 190 days. That was also when our backlog conversion dropped to around 50%. And as of December 31, 2024, our backlog conversion reached a company record of 177%. We've also demonstrated our commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

2023年供應鏈問題最嚴重的時候，我們超過了190天。那時我們的積壓轉換率也下降到了 50% 左右。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們的積壓訂單轉換率達到了公司最高的 177%。我們也展示了向股東返還資本的承諾。

We have purchased nearly 6% of our outstanding shares in Meritage stock since the start of 2022. And combined with quarterly cash dividends we initiated in 2023, we have returned almost $0.5 billion to shareholders in the last three years.

自 2022 年初以來，我們已購買了近 6% 的 Meritage 流通股。加上我們在 2023 年發起的季度現金股息，我們在過去三年中向股東返還了近 5 億美元。

To top it all off, Meritage first achieved top 5 builder status at the end of 2022 and has held that title for two years in a row. We know -- we will know definitely in the next couple of weeks or so, but I believe we have retained the top five position based on 2024 closings. And we did all of this while delivering our customers a first-rate experience.

最重要的是，Meritage 在 2022 年底首次獲得前 5 名建築商地位，並連續兩年保持該頭銜。我們知道——我們將在接下來的幾週內確切知道結果，但我相信根據 2024 年的收盤價，我們仍保持了前五名的位置。我們在做到這一切的同時，也為客戶提供了一流的體驗。

We give our highest customer satisfaction scores in 2024 with an avid score of 95%. As we move forward in 2025, we are excited about our opportunity to increase our market share as we compete against new build and resale homes alike.

我們給出了 2024 年最高的客戶滿意度分數，即 95% 的熱切評分。隨著我們邁入 2025 年，我們很高興有機會在與新建房屋和轉售房屋的競爭中增加我們的市場份額。

And with that, I'll now turn it over to Philippe.

現在我將把發言權交給菲利普。

Thank you, Steve. First, let me start by saying that we at Meritage feel very grateful that our Southern California employees and families are not directly impacted by the wildfires. Our hearts go out to everyone who has been and continues to be. Our communities are not directly affected. Our foundation will contribute $500,000 to the relief efforts as we hope for a quick rebuild and recovery.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。首先，我要說的是，Meritage 公司非常慶幸我們的南加州員工和家屬沒有受到野火的直接影響。我們向所有曾經和現在還在的人表示慰問。我們的社區沒有受到直接影響。我們的基金會將為救援工作捐贈 50 萬美元，希望能夠盡快重建和恢復。

As we shared on our last call, we entered the Gulf Coast markets at the end of October by completing the acquisition of Elliott Homes. Now to add to that new footprint, we also recently expanded our Alabama operations to include our start-up in Huntsville, a thriving market with economic expansion, job growth and immigration. We've been acquiring land in the Huntsville area for several quarters and plan to open our first community to sales there later this year.

正如我們在上次電話會議上所分享的，我們在 10 月底完成對 Elliott Homes 的收購，進入了墨西哥灣沿岸市場。現在，為了擴大新的業務範圍，我們最近還擴大了我們在阿拉巴馬州的業務，包括位於亨茨維爾的初創企業，亨茨維爾是一個經濟擴張、就業成長和移民不斷增加的蓬勃發展的市場。我們已經在亨茨維爾地區收購土地幾個季度了，並計劃今年稍後在那裡開放我們的第一個社區進行銷售。

Next, I want to touch on the backdrop of Q4. As expected, the homebuilding industry has returned to somewhat historical patterns and experienced relatively normal sales [paid] seasonality in the fourth quarter, although the volatility in the rate environment certainly added to the complexity.

接下來，我想談談第四季的背景。正如預期的那樣，住宅建築業已經恢復到某種歷史模式，並在第四季度經歷了相對正常的銷售[支付]季節性，儘管利率環境的波動無疑增加了複雜性。

While the Fed cut rates in September and November, mortgage rates increased instead of decreasing after such actions, causing us to extend and expand our financial incentive commitments to our customers. With our focus on affordability, we secured 3,304 orders with an average monthly absorption of 3.9, slightly better than what we would have expected to achieve during the typical slower quarter year.

儘管聯準會在9月和11月降息，但這些舉措之後抵押貸款利率不降反升，迫使我們延長並擴大對客戶的財務激勵承諾。由於我們注重價格承受能力，我們獲得了 3,304 份訂單，平均每月吸收量為 3.9，略好於我們預期在典型的較慢季度期間實現的水平。

As a result of our 60-day closing commitment, which includes carrying inventory to a more advanced construction stage prior to releasing the home for sale, our backlog conversion rate was 177% this quarter, which generated 4,044 home deliveries and home closing revenue of $1.6 billion. Home closing gross margin was 23.2% which, combined with SG&A leverage up 10.8%, resulted in diluted EPS of $4.72 for the fourth quarter of 2024.

由於我們實施了 60 天的成交承諾，包括在房屋出售之前將庫存轉移到更高級的建設階段，本季度我們的積壓訂單轉換率為 177%，共交付 4,044 套房屋，房屋成交收入達 16 億美元。房屋成交毛利率為 23.2%，加上銷售、一般及行政費用槓桿率上漲 10.8%，導致 2024 年第四季的稀釋每股收益為 4.72 美元。

Now turning to slide 4. Our sales orders for the fourth quarter were 3,304 homes with 91% of the volume coming from entry-level homes, which was up from 88% in the prior year. Orders were 14% higher year-over-year due to an 8% increase in average sourcing pace, up from 3.6 per month in the fourth quarter of 2023 and a 5% increase in average communities.

現在翻到幻燈片 4。我們第四季的銷售訂單為 3,304 間房屋，其中 91% 來自入門房屋，高於去年同期的 88%。訂單量年增 14%，原因是平均採購速度增加了 8%，高於 2023 年第四季的每月 3.6 個，平均社區增加了 5%。

The cancellation rate this quarter was 10%. This low rate is partially due to the implementation of our move-in strategy, which shortens the time line from sale to close and reduces buyer hesitation. ASP on orders this quarter of $400,000 were down 4% from prior year due to a greater utilization of financing incentives as well as product and geographic mix shift.

本季的取消率為 10%。這一低利率部分歸功於我們實施的入住策略，該策略縮短了從銷售到成交的時間並減少了買家的猶豫。由於融資激勵措施的更多利用以及產品和地理組合的轉變，本季 40 萬美元訂單的平均售價較上年下降 4%。

With our focus on affordability, we have been and will continue to offer our financing including rate buydowns for as long as they are needed for us to maintain our sales pace and help buyers solve for an affordable payment. Fourth quarter 2024 ending community count was 292, increasing 5% from 278 at September 30, 2024, and 8% from 270 at December 31, 2023.

由於我們注重可負擔性，我們一直並將繼續提供我們的融資，包括利率買斷，只要我們需要它們來維持我們的銷售速度並幫助買家解決可負擔的付款問題。2024 年第四季期末社區數量為 292 個，較 2024 年 9 月 30 日的 278 個增加 5%，較 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 270 個增加 8%。

The count as of December 31, 2024, does not include any communities from the Elliott Homes acquisition. We spent the first couple of months post acquisition starting homes in our Gulf Coast division and will release these homes for sale as soon as they are 60 days from completion. This quarter, 39 new communities came online, bringing our total full year openings to 129.

截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的數量不包括 Elliott Homes 收購的任何社區。收購後的頭幾個月，我們開始在墨西哥灣沿岸分部建造房屋，並將在完工後 60 天內立即將這些房屋出售。本季度，有 39 個新社區上線，使我們全年新開社區總數達到 129 個。

With our goal of 20,000 units by 2027, we anticipate a double-digit year-over-year increase in community count by the end of 2025. Before I cover our operational performance this quarter, I wanted to provide some high-level commentary on what we are seeing so far in Q1.

我們的目標是到 2027 年擁有 20,000 個單位，預計到 2025 年底社區數量將實現兩位數的同比增長。在介紹本季的營運業績之前，我想對第一季迄今為止的情況提供一些高層評論。

Consistent with commentary from other builders so far, January started off a little slower, but we saw the return of demand in the back of the month and continue to feel comfortable that the upcoming spring selling season will be healthy, especially with the recent rollout of our national sales event.

與迄今為止其他建築商的評論一致，一月份開始時銷售速度略慢，但我們看到月底需求回升，並且繼續對即將到來的春季銷售季節感到樂觀，尤其是隨著我們最近推出全國銷售活動，這將是健康的。

Moving to the regional level trends on slide 5. The average is absorption pace improved year-over-year across all of our regions in the fourth quarter of 2024. The central region comprised of our Texas market had the highest regional average absorption pace of 4.7 per month and a quarterly backlog conversion rate of over 200%. We have intentionally increased our complete speculatory in advance of the spring selling season in this region and believe we are well positioned here.

轉到投影片 5 上的區域層面的趨勢。2024 年第四季度，我們所有地區的平均吸收速度都比去年同期都有所提高。我們德州市場組成的中部地區擁有最高的區域平均吸收速度，為每月 4.7 筆，季度積壓轉換率超過 200%。在該地區春季銷售旺季到來之前，我們有意增加了我們的整體投機量，並相信我們在這裡處於有利地位。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the East region had an average absorption pace of 3.8 net sales per month and includes several of our startup divisions. Although we are experiencing more levels of retail in the Florida market, existing homes are not necessarily comparable to our ASPs, our offerings and typically don't represent direct competition.

2024 年第四季度，東部地區的平均吸收速度為每月 3.8 個淨銷售額，其中包括我們的幾個新創部門。儘管我們在佛羅裡達市場正在經歷更多層次的零售，但現有住宅不一定能與我們的 ASP 和產品相媲美，而且通常不代表直接競爭。

West region experienced 10% year-over-year growth in average absorption pace to 3.3 net sales per month in Q4. While Colorado and Salt Lake City remain some of our more challenging markets due to affordability issues, we continue to see strength throughout the rest of the West region in Arizona and California. Looking to the balance of 2025, we believe favorable demographics for our product offering and undersupply of homes at our price point and stability in the job market will drive solid housing demand for affordable homes at the right monthly payment, which aligns with our strategy.

西部地區第四季平均吸收速度年增 10%，達到每月 3.3 筆淨銷售額。儘管由於負擔能力問題，科羅拉多州和鹽湖城仍然是我們最具挑戰性的市場，但我們繼續看到亞利桑那州和加州其他西部地區的強勁表現。展望2025年，我們相信，有利於我們產品供應的人口統計數據、符合我們價格水平的住房供應不足以及就業市場的穩定，將推動對月供合適的經濟適用房的穩定住房需求，這符合我們的戰略。

Now turning to slide 6. Under our new strategy, we look at the total specs and backlog to assess our desired inventory levels. Most of the orders in the first 4 to 6 weeks of the quarter will become intra-quarter closings. We are comfortable with our approximate 8,600 spec and backlog units as of December 31, 2024 as we head into the spring of 2025.

現在翻到幻燈片 6。根據我們的新策略，我們會根據整體規格和積壓訂單來評估所需的庫存水準。本季前4至6週的大部分訂單將成為季內成交。隨著我們即將進入 2025 年春季，截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們對大約 8,600 個規格和積壓單位感到滿意。

We started nearly 3,600 homes in the fourth quarter of 2024, which was down 6% sequentially. Since our cycle times are back to our historical averages, we can now align our spec starts more closely with sales. We had over 7,000 spec homes in inventory as of December 31, 2024, up 20% from 5,900 specs as of December 31, 2023.

我們在 2024 年第四季開工近 3,600 棟房屋，季減 6%。由於我們的周期時間已恢復到歷史平均水平，我們現在可以使我們的規格開始與銷售更加緊密地結合。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們的庫存樣品屋超過 7,000 套，比 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 5,900 套樣品屋增加 20%。

This represents a little more than 24 specs per community this quarter, which was on the upper end of our four to six-month supply target as we prepare for the higher spring selling season demand. As expected, we have been completing our specs to a later stage of construction prior to listing them for sale to ensure our customers can benefit from our 60-day closing ready commitment. As such, we increased the percentage of completed specs to 40% as of December 31, 2024.

這意味著本季每個社區的規格略多於 24 個，這是我們為迎接春季銷售旺季更高需求而準備的四到六個月供應目標的上限。正如預期的那樣，我們在將其掛牌出售之前就已經完成了後期施工的規範，以確保我們的客戶能夠從我們 60 天的成交準備承諾中受益。因此，截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們將完成規格的百分比提高到 40%。

As we continue to execute on our new strategic shift, we will be reevaluating our optimal complete spec targets. Of our home closings this quarter, 98% came from previously started inventories, up from 92% in the prior year.

隨著我們繼續執行新的策略轉變，我們將重新評估我們的最佳完整規格目標。本季我們成交的房屋中，98%來自先前開始出售的庫存，高於去年同期的 92%。

With over 50% of this quarter's closing also sold within the quarter, our ending backlog declined intentionally from about 2,500 units as of December 31, 2023, to approximately 1,500 homes at December 31, 2024. We believe we are very near our stable point of spec count with our current backlog conversion case.

由於本季成交的房屋中有超過 50% 也在本季內售出，我們的期末積壓房屋數量有意從 2023 年 12 月 31 日的約 2,500 套減少到 2024 年 12 月 31 日的約 1,500 套。我們相信，就我們目前的積壓轉換案例而言，我們已經非常接近規格數量的穩定點。

I will now turn it over to Hilla to walk through our financial results. Hilla?

現在我將把目光轉向希拉 (Hilla) 來介紹我們的財務表現。希拉？

Thank you, Phillippe. Let's turn to slide 7 and cover our Q4 results in more detail. We generated $1.6 billion of home closing revenue this quarter, which was a 3% year-over-year decrease but primarily resulted from 5% lower ASPs, offset by a 2% pickup in closing volumes to 4,044 units.

謝謝你，菲利普。讓我們翻到第 7 張投影片，更詳細地介紹我們的第四季業績。本季我們創造了 16 億美元的房屋成交收入，較去年同期下降 3%，但主要原因是平均售價下降 5%，但成交量增加 2% 至 4,044 套。

The drop in ASP was a combination of great utilization of financing incentives as well as product and geographic mix shift. While a greater percentage of our customers needed assistance with rates this quarter, the cost per home was lower compared to Q4 of 2023 but did increase sequentially from the third quarter of 2024, in line with the corresponding increases in mortgage rates.

平均售價的下降是融資激勵措施的大量利用以及產品和地理組合轉變的結果。雖然本季有更大比例的客戶需要利率方面的幫助，但與 2023 年第四季相比，每套房屋的成本較低，但與 2024 年第三季相比確實有所增加，與抵押貸款利率的相應增長保持一致。

As we mentioned previously, we anticipate the use of financing incentives to remain elevated for the near future. Comp closing gross margin of 23.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 was down 200 bps from 25.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Our 2024 margin reflects greater utilization of financing incentives and higher log costs, which were partially offset by lower direct costs and shorter construction cycle times.

正如我們之前提到的，我們預計在不久的將來融資激勵的使用仍將保持在高位。2024 年第四季的同店毛利率為 23.2%，較 2023 年第四季的 25.2% 下降 200 個基點。我們的 2024 年利潤率反映了融資激勵措施的更大利用和更高的原木成本，但直接成本的降低和施工週期的縮短部分抵消了這些影響。

We are still targeting a long-term gross margin of 22.5% to 23.5%. Breaking down the components of gross margin as land and development costs are still running above historical averages, we expect log costs to remain elevated in 2025 and 2026.

我們仍將長期毛利率目標定為22.5%至23.5%。由於土地和開發成本仍然高於歷史平均水平，因此將毛利率的組成部分細分，我們預計原木成本在 2025 年和 2026 年仍將保持高位。

Conversely, we have been able to reduce direct cost on a per square foot basis each quarter since the beginning of 2023 due to a combination of our purchasing team's ongoing cost negotiations, the volume discounts from our increased production and the overall increased capacity in most supply chains. On a year-over-year basis, our margins reflect about 3% lower cost per square foot this quarter versus 2023.

相反，由於我們的採購團隊持續進行的成本談判、產量增加帶來的批量折扣以及大多數供應鏈整體產能的提高，自 2023 年初以來，我們每個季度都能夠降低每平方英尺的直接成本。與去年同期相比，本季我們的利潤率與 2023 年相比每平方英尺成本下降了約 3%。

Our cycle times improved another five days from Q3 to Q4, and we are now at our target build time of an average of 120 calendar days, which is also driving gross margin savings. Going forward, maintaining the cycle time would allow us to turn our inventory 3 times a year and keep a lower volume of specs on hand. And lastly, during the quarter, labor capacity remained consistent.

從第三季到第四季度，我們的週期時間又縮短了五天，現在我們的目標建造時間是平均 120 個日曆日，這也推動了毛利率的節省。展望未來，保持週期時間將使我們能夠每年週轉庫存三次，並保持較低數量的庫存。最後，在本季度，勞動力能力保持一致。

Top of mind right now are tariffs and the immigration policy. We do not have any clarity at this point. But as an industry, we have experienced extreme supply chain constraints a couple of years back and are routinely dealt with labor shortages, especially over the past decade. For Meritage, our all-spec strategy has and will continue to allow us to pivot and offer a substitute if product availability or cost issues arise.

目前最受關注的是關稅和移民政策。目前我們還不清楚這一點。但作為一個行業，我們幾年前就經歷了極端的供應鏈限制，並且經常面臨勞動力短缺的問題，尤其是在過去十年。對於 Meritage 而言，如果出現產品可用性或成本問題，我們的全規格策略已經並將繼續允許我們調整並提供替代品。

We have been expanding our sourcing channels over the past several years, particularly since COVID, so we remain nimble and ready to adjust to any potential international trade implications. We are confident that our people and our strategy will help us successfully navigate any future headwinds.

過去幾年，尤其是自疫情爆發以來，我們一直在擴大採購管道，因此我們保持靈活，隨時準備好應對任何潛在的國際貿易影響。我們相信，我們的員工和策略將幫助我們成功克服未來的任何阻力。

Turning back to the P&L. SG&A as a percentage of home closing revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 10.8% compared to 10.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023. While Q4 represents a 90 bps increase from Q3 this year, we are pleased that we were able to maintain our leverage relatively in line with last year on lower revenue and in a tougher selling environment, which showed an increase in external commission.

回到損益表。2024 年第四季度，銷售、一般及行政費用佔房屋成交收入的百分比為 10.8%，而 2023 年第四季為 10.7%。雖然今年第四季的槓桿率較第三季增加了 90 個基點，但我們很高興能夠在收入較低和銷售環境更為嚴峻的情況下，將槓桿率維持在與去年基本相當的水平，這表明外部佣金有所增加。

Once the mortgage rates moved in the wrong direction this quarter, we intentionally adjusted commissions as they are commonly used selling tool in challenging markets and can be used interchangeably with higher marketing spend or greater utilization of incentives to drive sales. We are confident that our strong relationships with the broker community continue to be a differentiator for us, and we plan to use all available tools, including increased commissions or incentives to drive our desire orders volume.

一旦本季抵押貸款利率出現錯誤的方向，我們就會有意調整佣金，因為它們是充滿挑戰的市場中常用的銷售工具，並且可以與更高的行銷支出或更多地利用激勵措施來推動銷售。我們相信，我們與經紀人社群的牢固關係將繼續成為我們的差異化因素，我們計劃使用所有可用的工具，包括增加佣金或獎勵來推動我們期望的訂單量。

Full year SG&A as a percentage of home closing revenue was 10.1%, fairly consistent with 2023, as higher commissions impacted the incremental leverage gained on higher revenue. Our long-term target for SG&A as a percentage of home closing revenue is 9.5% or better as we grow our markets and leverage our overhead platform.

全年銷售、一般及行政費用佔房屋成交收入的百分比為 10.1%，與 2023 年基本一致，因為更高的佣金影響了更高收入所獲得的增量槓桿。隨著我們市場的成長和管理費用平台的利用，我們的長期目標是銷售、一般及行政費用佔房屋成交收入的百分比達到 9.5% 或更高。

The fourth quarter's effective income tax rate was 22.1% this year compared to 23.2% for the fourth quarter of 2023. Both periods benefited from energy tax credits on qualifying homes under the Inflation Reduction Act with some incremental qualifying homes in 2024 driving the tax savings.

今年第四季的有效所得稅率為 22.1%，而 2023 年第四季的有效所得稅率為 23.2%。根據《通膨削減法案》，這兩個時期的合格住房均享有能源稅收抵免，其中 2024 年一些增量合格住房將推動稅收節省。

For 2025, the IRA implemented higher threshold to achieve these tax credits, and we anticipate fewer of our homes will qualify. While we are not planning to eliminate or pull back on any of our energy-efficient offerings, we have elected not to add these new requirements to our homes.

到 2025 年，IRA 將實施更高的門檻來獲得這些稅收抵免，我們預計符合條件的房屋將減少。雖然我們並不打算取消或撤回任何節能產品，但我們選擇不在我們的家中增加這些新的要求。

We do not believe that the incremental cost to earn energy tax credits will be viewed as value accretive by our customers and will not meaningfully benefit our homes, especially as we continue to focus on affordability. We remain fully committed to building 100% energy-efficient homes going forward.

我們不認為獲得能源稅收抵免的增量成本會被我們的客戶視為增值，並且不會為我們的家庭帶來真正的利益，特別是當我們繼續關注可負擔性的時候。我們將繼續全力致力於建造 100％ 節能住宅。

Overall, lower home closing revenue and gross profit led to a 12% year-over-year decrease in fourth quarter 2024 diluted EPS to $4.72 from $5.38 in 2023. I will add a little to Steve's comments about full year 2024 results. As compared to 2023, orders were up 11%, closings were up 12% and our home closing revenue increased 5% to $6.3 billion.

總體而言，房屋成交收入和毛利下降導致 2024 年第四季攤薄每股收益從 2023 年的 5.38 美元年減 12% 至 4.72 美元。我將對史蒂夫關於 2024 年全年業績的評論進行一些補充。與 2023 年相比，訂單量增加了 11%，成交量增加了 12%，我們的房屋成交收入增加了 5%，達到 63 億美元。

Full year 2024 home closing gross margin of 24.9% was slightly up from 24.8% for full year 2023 due to lower direct costs and improved cycle times, which were partially offset by greater utilization of financing incentives and higher lot costs. Net earnings increased 6% to $786 million, and our diluted EPS totaled $21.44 for the year. Before we move on to the balance sheet, I wanted to cover our Q4 2024 customer credit metrics.

2024 年全年房屋成交毛利率為 24.9%，略高於 2023 年全年的 24.8%，原因是直接成本降低和週期時間縮短，但融資激勵措施的利用率提高和地塊成本上升部分抵消了這一影響。淨利潤成長 6% 至 7.86 億美元，全年攤薄每股收益總計 21.44 美元。在我們討論資產負債表之前，我想先介紹一下我們 2024 年第四季的客戶信用指標。

As expected, our buyer profile remained relatively consistent with our historical averages with FICO scores in the mid 730s and DTI around 41 to 42. LTVs were still in the mid-80s. On to slide 8. We maintained a healthy balance sheet at December 31, 2024, with nothing drawn on our credit facility and a net debt to cap of 11.7%.

正如預期的那樣，我們的買家情況與歷史平均水平保持相對一致，FICO 分數在 730 多分左右，DTI 在 41 到 42 左右。LTV 仍處於 80 年代中期。轉到投影片 8。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們的資產負債表保持健康，沒有動用任何信貸額度，淨債務上限為 11.7%。

As we continue to grow our land position, our net debt to cap ceiling remains in the mid-20s range. We ended the year with $652 million in cash compared to $921 million at December 31, 2023, as we increased our investments in real estate and also completed the Elliott acquisition this quarter.

隨著我們繼續擴大土地持有量，我們的淨債務與資本上限比率仍然保持在 25% 左右。由於我們增加了對房地產的投資，並在本季度完成了對 Elliott 的收購，我們截至今年年底的現金餘額為 6.52 億美元，而 2023 年 12 月 31 日的現金餘額為 9.21 億美元。

Our capital allocation in the fourth quarter of 2024 remains centered on investing in growth and returning shareholders -- cash to shareholders. This quarter, we spent about $742 million on land acquisition and development, which was up 13% from prior year. This is inclusive of the Elliott acquisition.

我們在 2024 年第四季的資本配置仍然以投資成長和回報股東為中心——向股東提供現金。本季度，我們在土地收購和開發上花費了約 7.42 億美元，比上年增長了 13%。其中包括 Elliott 的收購。

For full year 2024, our land spend totaled $2.5 billion. We expect full year land spend to be around $2.5 billion for the next several years. As we nearly tripled our quarterly cash dividend on a year-over-year basis to $0.75 per share in 2024 from $0.27 per share in 2023, our cash dividends totaled $27 million this quarter and about $109 million for full year 2024. We spent $40 million to buy back nearly 220,000 shares in Q4, well above our $15 million systematic quarterly commitment.

2024 年全年，我們的土地支出總計 25 億美元。我們預計未來幾年全年土地支出將達到 25 億美元左右。由於我們的季度現金股息比去年同期幾乎增加了兩倍，從 2023 年的每股 0.27 美元增至 2024 年的每股 0.75 美元，本季度我們的現金股息總額為 2700 萬美元，2024 年全年約為 1.09 億美元。我們在第四季度花費了 4,000 萬美元回購了近 220,000 股，遠高於我們 1,500 萬美元的季度系統承諾。

On a full-year basis, we spent nearly $126 million on share buybacks, repurchasing over 730,000 shares or 2% of our shares outstanding at the beginning of the year. During the fourth quarter of 2024, our Board approved an additional $250 million in authorized share repurchases. And as of year-end, $309.1 million remain available to repurchase under the program. We returned a total of $235 million of cash to shareholders in 2024, a 138% increase year-over-year.

全年我們花了近 1.26 億美元用於股票回購，回購了超過 73 萬股，佔年初流通股的 2%。2024 年第四季度，我們的董事會批准了額外 2.5 億美元的授權股票回購。截至年底，該計劃下仍有 3.091 億美元可供回購。2024年，我們向股東返還了總計2.35億美元的現金，年增138%。

And as we announced earlier this month, given our confidence in Meritage's long-term growth trajectory, subsequent to year-end, we completed a 2-for-1 stock split on January 2, 2025. Turning to slide 9. In the fourth quarter of 2024, we secured and put about 14,400 net new lots under control. This included the approximately 5,500 lots we obtained through the acquisition. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we put just over 7,600 net new lots under control.

正如我們本月早些時候宣布的那樣，鑑於我們對 Meritage 長期成長軌蹟的信心，在年底之後，我們於 2025 年 1 月 2 日完成了 2 比 1 的股票分割。翻到第 9 張投影片。2024 年第四季度，我們取得並控制了約 14,400 個淨新地塊。其中包括我們透過收購獲得的約5,500塊土地。2023 年第四季度，我們控制了超過 7,600 個淨新地塊。

As of December 31, 2024, we owned or control a total of about 85,600 lots, equating to 5.5-year supply of 2024 closings but fairly in line with four to five years of forward-looking 2025 demand. We also had nearly 33,500 lots that were still undergoing diligence at the end of the fourth quarter. As we accelerate our land acquisition to support our goal of 20,000 units in about three years' time, we are actively sourcing off-balance sheet land financing to ensure our balance sheet is not overburdened.

截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們總共擁有或控制約 85,600 個地塊，相當於 2024 年成交量的 5.5 年供應量，但與 2025 年前瞻性四到五年的需求相當一致。截至第四季末，我們還有近 33,500 個地塊仍在接受盡職調查。隨著我們加快土地收購以支持我們在大約三年內實現 20,000 套的目標，我們正在積極尋找表外土地融資，以確保我們的資產負債表不會負擔過重。

About 62% of our lot inventory at December 31, 2024, was owned and 38% was optioned compared to prior year where we had a 72% owned inventory and a 28% owned lot position. Finally, I'll direct you to slide 10 for our guidance.

截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們的地塊庫存中約有 62% 為自有，38% 為選擇，而去年同期我們的自有庫存為 72%，地塊自有率為 28%。最後，我將引導您到幻燈片 10 來獲取我們的指導。

Based on current market conditions, we are now guiding to full year 2025 closings of 6,250 to 16,750 units and $6.6 billion to $6.9 billion in home closing revenue. We are projecting the following for Q1 2025: total closings between 3,200 and 3,500 units; home closing revenue of $1.26 billion to $1.40 billion; comp closing gross margin of around 22%; an effective tax rate of about 24%; and diluted EPS in the range of $1.59 to $1.83.

根據目前的市場狀況，我們預計 2025 年全年房屋成交量將達到 6,250 至 16,750 套，房屋成交收入將達到 66 億至 69 億美元。我們預測 2025 年第一季的情況如下：總成交量在 3,200 至 3,500 台之間；房屋成交收入為 12.6 億美元至 14 億美元；同期毛利率約22%；有效稅率約為24%；稀釋每股收益在 1.59 美元至 1.83 美元之間。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Philippe.

說完這些，我會把話題轉回給菲利普。

Thank you, Hilla. To summarize on slide 11. Looking at our full year 2024 results, we are proud of what we've been able to accomplish in a volatile market and attribute the success to our scale and strategic focus on delivering affordable moving-ready homes.

謝謝你，希拉。在第 11 張投影片中做總結。回顧我們 2024 年全年的業績，我們為在動盪的市場中取得的成就感到自豪，並將成功歸功於我們的規模和提供經濟實惠的入住房屋的戰略重點。

As we look into the spring selling season, we will lean into pay-over price and our new strategy to continue growing our market share and creating further long-term value for our shareholders.

展望春季銷售旺季，我們將依靠支付價格和新策略來繼續擴大我們的市場份額並為股東創造進一步的長期價值。

With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for instructions on the Q&A. Operator?

說完這些，我現在將把電話轉給接線員，以獲取有關問答的指示。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

Great. First, I'd love to focus around kind of the drivers of the gross margin trajectory, obviously, incentives having a huge part, a huge role in this and looking for a little bit of a further easing in the first quarter. How should we think about, to the extent that incentives stabilized here in the first quarter, are there any other kind of puts and takes that we should anticipate as 2025 progresses relative to locked costs or construction costs? And just kind of curious about -- even if you have upcoming community mix changes that might impact the 22% starting point that you see in the first quarter, again, if incentives kind of stay where they are currently.

偉大的。首先，我想專注於毛利率走勢的驅動因素，顯然，激勵措施在其中起著很大的作用，我希望第一季能進一步放鬆這一限制。我們應該如何思考，在第一季激勵措施已經穩定的前提下，隨著 2025 年的進展，相對於鎖定成本或建設成本，我們是否還應該預期其他類型的收益和利弊？我只是有點好奇——即使即將發生的社區組合變化可能會影響您在第一季看到的 22% 的起點，如果激勵措施保持在目前的水平。

Thanks for the question, Mike. I think overall this is just a function of the incentives. When we're closing and selling so many of our homes in the same quarter, the current market is what we're modeling. So it's primarily an incentive issue. Although, as Philippe mentioned, the slight pullback in demand in the first couple of weeks of January is causing us to model a slightly lower volume which, as you know, also impacts the margin. So this is just modeled on what we're seeing in the market today. There's definitely opportunity for improvement if the volume picks up or if we can pull back on the cost of financing incentives.

謝謝你的提問，麥克。我認為整體來說這只是激勵機制的作用。當我們在同一季度完成並銷售大量房屋時，當前市場就是我們所模擬的。所以這主要是一個激勵問題。不過，正如菲利普所提到的，一月份前幾週需求略有回落，導致我們預測銷量會略有下降，這也會影響利潤。這只是根據我們今天在市場上看到的情況建模的。如果數量增加或我們能夠降低融資激勵成本，那麼肯定存在改進的機會。

Okay. Great. I guess secondly, with maybe a little bit of a softer start to the year, I'm also just curious about if -- again, if demand kind of stays where it is today, are there other levers -- would you be on track in effect to hit the full year closings guidance?

好的。偉大的。其次，由於今年年初可能會稍微疲軟一些，我也很好奇，如果需求保持在今天的水平，是否還有其他槓桿作用，您是否能實現全年收盤預期？

Or would you need to take other measures like perhaps even raising incentives further to get to that full year closings guidance? Just trying to understand again like what the assumptions for the market backdrop would be when looking at 2Q to 4Q?

或者您需要採取其他措施，例如進一步提高激勵措施以達到全年收盤預期？只是想再次了解，從第二季到第四季度，市場背景的假設是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. This is Phillippe. I think we feel very comfortable with our full year closing guide based on current market conditions which are getting better as we move through January. So we're optimistic that January was just a little bit slow for other reasons and the spring selling season is starting to materialize in a way that makes more sense based on the current pattern.

是的。謝謝，麥克。這是菲利普。我認為，根據目前的市場狀況，我們對我們的全年收盤指南感到非常滿意，而且隨著一月份的到來，市場狀況正在好轉。因此，我們樂觀地認為，一月份的銷售只是由於其他原因而略微放緩，而根據目前的模式，春季銷售旺季正開始以更合理的方式到來。

But I think we're still going to be relatively conservative given that we're operating in a 7% mortgage rate environment, and we're not expecting that to get any better. So we feel really comfortable that we can hit our number in that environment with current incentive structure based on the current demand we're seeing.

但我認為，考慮到我們是在 7% 的抵押貸款利率環境下運作的，我們仍然會保持相對保守，而且我們預計情況不會有任何改善。因此，我們非常放心，在當前需求和當前激勵結構的支持下，我們可以在這種環境下實現我們的目標。

I'm optimistic actually that rates are going to hopefully settle down here and maybe get a little bit better. And then I think we can possibly recover in February and March and get back to a 17,000 number over time. We have the lots and the inventory and the communities to achieve 17,000 units, but we're just being conservative based on the 7% mortgage rate environment.

事實上，我樂觀地認為利率有望穩定下來，甚至可能略有改善。然後我認為我們可能在二月和三月恢復，並隨著時間的推移回到 17,000 的數字。我們擁有足夠的地塊、庫存和社區來實現 17,000 套住房，但是基於 7% 的抵押貸款利率環境，我們只是採取保守態度。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納（Alan Ratner），澤爾曼及合夥人公司。

Nice job in a tough sales environment in the quarter. Phillippe, I think you kind of somewhat answered the question I had in your last comment about having the lots and the communities for 17,000 closings.

在本季嚴峻的銷售環境下，我們做得很好。菲利普，我想你在某種程度上回答了我在你上一條評論中提出的問題，關於擁有 17,000 個成交地段和社區的問題。

But I guess I'll ask it a little bit differently in the sense of, if I interpret your prior comments, I think that you have a fairly similar strategy as some other spec builders in that you're more volume focused and price and margin are going to be a lever to achieve a certain closing number or volume target.

但我想我會以稍微不同的方式來問這個問題，如果我解釋你之前的評論，我認為你有一個與其他一些規格建造者非常相似的策略，即你更注重數量，價格和利潤將成為實現某個收盤數字或數量目標的槓桿。

With your margin at 22%, I guess my question is, is there a level where that shifts a little bit, where you lighten up a bit on the volume? Or are you willing to take that margin lower if need be to achieve that target?

您的利潤率為 22%，我的問題是，在某個水平上是否會有一點變化，在某個水平上您會稍微降低一點數量？或者，如果需要實現該目標，您是否願意降低利潤率？

Yes, great question. I don't know if the market is that elastic at a 7% rate environment. Based on kind of what we're seeing today, we feel like achieving 4 to 4.5 net sales per store. At least 22 to 23 is probably the sweet spot for us and optimizes our land book. If rates get better, I think we can lower incentives and possibly get a little bit more. I would argue that if rates get better, we'll go after volume more aggressively.

是的，很好的問題。我不知道在 7% 的利率環境下市場是否具有如此大的彈性。根據我們今天看到的情況，我們預計每家商店的淨銷售額將達到 4 到 4.5。至少 22 到 23 可能是我們的最佳點，並且可以優化我們的土地登記。如果利率改善，我認為我們可以降低激勵措施，並可能獲得更多。我認為，如果利率改善，我們就會更積極地追求交易量。

If rates get worse, we're just going to have to increase our incentives to achieve the same volume. So that's how we're kind of looking at it. We obviously would take lower margins if rates got worse because we still got to maximize our pace. But if rates got better, I think we could get pace and margin at the same time.

如果利率變得更糟，我們只需要增加激勵措施來實現相同的產量。這就是我們看待這個問題的方式。如果利率進一步惡化，我們顯然會降低利潤率，因為我們仍然需要最大限度地提高我們的速度。但如果利率提高，我認為我們可以同時獲得速度和利潤。

I think you heard from several of our peers already, it's not a demand issue. There's definitely demand out there in the marketplace. It's an affordability issue. We're not going to cut margins to something that doesn't make sense, but we still have quite a bit of breathing room between where we are today and where -- what we think we'll need to do considering we're already a 7% interest rate. So I think that we're fairly comfortable that we'll be able to achieve the margins that we've set out there.

我想您已經從我們的幾位同行那裡聽說了，這不是一個需求問題。市場上肯定存在需求。這是一個負擔能力的問題。我們不會將利潤率削減到沒有意義的程度，但是考慮到我們已經有 7% 的利率，我們認為我們需要做的是在當前水平和我們需要採取的行動之間還有相當大的喘息空間。因此我認為，我們相當有信心能夠實現我們設定的利潤。

Perfect. That's helpful. And then as we just kind of think about the build up to 20,000 closings to '27. So if we take the midpoint of your '25 guide, call it, 5% growth, plus or minus, would seem to suggest you need to accelerate that to 10% annually in '26 and '27. Do you feel like you have the organic growth for that? Or is M&A a possibility or likelihood to contribute towards that?

完美的。這很有幫助。然後，我們就想想到 27 年，關閉店舖的數量將達到 20,000 家。因此，如果我們取 25 年指南的中點，即 5% 的成長率（正負）似乎意味著您需要在 26 年和 27 年將其加速到每年 10%。您是否覺得自己已經實現了有機成長？或者，併購是否有可能或有可能對此做出貢獻？

Yes. I think with our acquisition of Elliott Homes and then the entry into Huntsville, we have more than enough of a market platform to get to 20,000 units by increasing our market share across our existing footprint. So really no M&A.

是的。我認為，透過收購 Elliott Homes 並進入亨茨維爾市場，我們有足夠的市場平台來透過增加現有業務的市場份額達到 20,000 套的銷售量。因此實際上不存在併購。

We might buy land portfolios here and there, but no real company M&A in that strategy at 20,000 units. And we have all the land we need right now to achieve that growth in 2026 and 2027. We really are only buying land at this point to grow from '27 to '28. The land book's in place, the community count's in place to get there in our existing footprint.

我們可能會到處購買土地組合，但在該策略中不會有 20,000 個單位的真正公司併購。我們現在擁有實現 2026 年和 2027 年成長所需的所有土地。我們目前購買土地只是為了實現 27 年至 28 年的成長。土地登記簿已經到位，社區人數也已到位，以便在我們現有的足跡上實現目標。

As we mentioned, we have about 86,000 lots owned and under control already and another 33,000 lots that we're working through diligence. So to Philippe's point, that 100,000 plus-ish lots are already available if we want to pull the trigger.

正如我們所提到的，我們已經擁有並控制了大約 86,000 個地塊，另外還有 33,000 個地塊我們正在盡職調查中。所以正如菲利普所說，如果我們願意採取行動的話，已經有超過 10 萬個地塊可供出售。

John Lovallo, UBS.

瑞銀的約翰·洛瓦洛。

The first one is at the midpoint, the sales guide implies about 6.5% year-over-year growth. So if we think about SG&A and leverage, I mean, how are you thinking about the ability to get to 10% or below sort of as you guys talked about in 2024?

第一個是中間值，銷售指南暗示年增約 6.5%。因此，如果我們考慮銷售、一般和行政費用以及槓桿率，我的意思是，您如何看待達到 10% 或以下的能力，就像您在 2024 年談論的那樣？

Yes. I think our long-term goals for SG&A as we go from here to 20,000 units is to get to 9.5% or better. The path on the way there, it just kind of really depends on the market and what we're seeing with commissions. And then we're investing quite a bit in our new strategy.

是的。我認為，從現在到 20,000 個單位，我們的銷售、一般及行政開支的長期目標是達到 9.5% 或更高。實現這一目標的路徑實際上取決於市場和我們所看到的佣金情況。然後我們對新策略投入了大量資金。

We have infrastructure that we have to put into place. We have IT and technology that we have to put in place. So we think we can operate at 10% or better on our way up to the 20,000 units. But the real goal is to set our business up to get to 9.5% or better at 20,000 units.

我們擁有必須落實的基礎建設。我們擁有必須落實的 IT 和技術。因此我們認為，在達到 20,000 個單位的目標過程中，我們的營運效率可以達到 10% 甚至更高。但真正的目標是讓我們的業務在 20,000 台銷售時達到 9.5％ 或更高。

Understood. And then obviously there's a lot of concern about certain markets in terms of inventory, I mean, Texas being one of the more broader markets. I think Austin in particular, I mean, your performance there was really strong with absorption in Texas up 14%. Just curious if you could give us any color on what you're seeing across the major markets in Texas in terms of overall inventory and just demand, perhaps.

明白了。顯然，人們對某些市場的庫存非常擔憂，我的意思是，德州是更廣泛的市場之一。我認為尤其是奧斯汀，那裡的表現非常強勁，德州的吸收量增加了 14%。我只是好奇您是否可以告訴我們有關德克薩斯州主要市場總體庫存和需求的信息。

Yes. Great question. I'll probably answer it a couple of different ways. I mean, our absorption in Texas was strongest in the company in this current environment. So I think the market is still very, very strong. We have great locations and great communities and a great price point.

是的。好問題。我可能會用幾種不同的方式來回答這個問題。我的意思是，在當前環境下，我們在德州的吸收能力是公司最強的。所以我認為市場仍然非常非常強勁。我們擁有優越的地理位置、優越的社區和優越的價格。

So I think we're doing quite well. It's really a submarket-by-submarket conversation versus a market-by-market conversation. There are certain submarkets in Austin and San Antonio and even probably Houston and Dallas that has slowed down a little bit more due to affordability than, I would say, existing homes. But then there are also some markets throughout that footprint that are doing quite well.

所以我認為我們做得很好。這實際上是一個針對子市場而非整個市場的對話。奧斯汀、聖安東尼奧，甚至休士頓和達拉斯的某些子市場由於負擔能力的原因，其成長速度比現有住房略慢一些。但在整個這一範圍內也有一些市場表現相當良好。

And the other thing I would say is when you look at their resale -- we look at where resale is coming back. It's really not coming back at our price point with our product offering and our community offering. So the resell doesn't really compete directly with what we're offering.

我想說的另一件事是，當你看他們的轉售時——我們會看轉售的回流點。我們的產品和社區服務確實沒有回到我們的價格。因此轉售實際上並不與我們的產品直接競爭。

So from our perspective, based on the research that we're doing, even though resale environment is returning to a more normal state, most of it's not really competitive to what we're offering.

因此，從我們的角度來看，根據我們正在進行的研究，儘管轉售環境正在恢復到更正常的狀態，但大多數轉售環境與我們提供的產品相比並沒有真正的競爭力。

And just to state the obvious, they are paying the 7% on the retail for their mortgages, which is again why the new build space continues to have an advantage in today's interest rate environment.

顯而易見的是，他們支付的零售抵押貸款利率為 7%，這也是為什麼新建築在當今的利率環境下仍然具有優勢的原因。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

艾林森（Trevor Allinson），沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

First, we get a lot of questions from investors about homebuilder completed inventory levels. Clearly, your business model is designed to have more completed or near completed inventory level so that you can up your 60-day guarantee. The comment we hear from investors is that in a slower market, completed inventory could perhaps be a little riskier from a price discounting perspective. Question is, do you share that view? And then if not, can you talk about why you disagree with that view?

首先，我們收到了許多投資者關於房屋建築商完工庫存水準的問題。顯然，您的商業模式旨在擁有更完整或接近完整的庫存水平，以便您可以提高 60 天的保證期。我們從投資者那裡聽到的評論是，在市場放緩的情況下，從價格折扣的角度來看，已完成的庫存可能會有更大的風險。問題是，您是否同意這個觀點？如果不是，您能談談為什麼您不同意該觀點嗎？

Well, at the macro level, obviously, this is a supply and demand business. In my humble opinion, demand is still much stronger than the current supply markets, even with new homebuilders filling the gap that the existing home market currently isn't filling because of a lock-in effect. So I think currently, I don't share that view. I think we're still in -- we're meeting the demand that's out there because the existing home market is not.

嗯，從宏觀層面來看，顯然這是一個供需問題。以我個人觀點，即使新房建築商填補了現有房屋市場目前因鎖定效應而未能填補的空白，需求仍然遠高於當前的供應市場。所以我認為目前我不同意這個觀點。我認為我們仍在滿足現有需求，因為現有房屋市場尚未滿足。

Over the long term, when we look at Meritage Homes specifically, we don't offer anything else but completed inventory. So I think where discounting becomes part of the equation is when we offer something else. When all you offer is specs, you can't buy a build-to-order and this is all we offer, there's not as much discounting that's required.

從長遠來看，當我們專門關注 Meritage Homes 時，我們除了完整的庫存外不提供任何其他東西。因此我認為當我們提供其他東西時折扣就會成為方程式的一部分。當您提供的只是規格時，您無法購買訂單生產的產品，而這正是我們提供的全部產品，因此不需要太多的折扣。

But when you have a bunch of specs in the community and you offer build-to-order in that community, that's where we saw in the past downturns where discounting really happened. So we kind of view our product very homogenous.

但是，當您在社區中擁有大量規格並且您在該社區中提供按訂單生產時，我們在過去的經濟低迷時期就看到了折扣的出現。因此我們認為我們的產品非常同質化。

And therefore, we're not feeling that over time we're going to have to discount our product more because we have more inventory. We're competing directly with the retail market. We're providing you a new home opportunity instead of buying a used home, and we don't feel like we'll have to discount that.

因此，我們並不認為隨著時間的推移我們會因為庫存增加而進一步降低產品折扣。我們正在與零售市場直接競爭。我們為您提供的是購買新房的機會，而不是購買二手房，我們不認為我們需要降低這一點。

Yes. I think -- I mean, there's two ways where folks that offer both -- see the penalty between non-spec. First is at initial purchase. If you have a spec home and then you can also go into the design studio and pick everything exactly the way you want it for yourself, you're going to expect a discount if you didn't have the opportunity to do that if it's offered.

是的。我認為 — — 我的意思是，提供這兩種服務的人有兩種方式來看待非規格之間的懲罰。首先是在初次購買時。如果您擁有一套樣品房，然後您還可以進入設計工作室，按照自己想要的方式挑選一切，如果您沒有機會這樣做，您會期望獲得折扣。

The second time is when builders accept a home that maybe had gone through that channel, and it was canceled and it comes back. Now it's at a disadvantage to the existing home inventory. So both intentional and unintentional specs cause that margin gap for folks that offer both patterns.

第二次是當建築商接受了可能已經透過該管道出售的房屋，但後來被取消並又回來了。現在它相對於現有的房屋庫存處於不利地位。因此，有意和無意的規格都會導致提供兩種模式的人出現利潤差距。

For us, if a home cancels, great, we just have a completed inventory home that we can sell fast. So for us, there is no variance because there is no comparable. .

對於我們來說，如果一套房屋被取消，那太好了，我們有一個可以快速出售的已完成的庫存房屋。所以對我們來說，不存在差異，因為沒有可比性。。

Yes. Makes a lot of sense. I appreciate that color. And then second question is on community count in 2025, talked about double-digit growth. How should we think about the cadence of that community count growth throughout the year? And does it skew more heavily to any one of your regions?

是的。非常有道理。我很欣賞那個顏色。第二個問題是關於 2025 年的社區數量，談到了兩位數的成長。我們該如何看待全年社區數量的成長節奏？它是否對你們的任何一個地區有更嚴重的偏見？

Regionally, I do think -- I have to look at that and I can follow up with you. We can follow up with a one-on-one call. I think it's probably happening more in the South and Southeast than it is other parts. But I would say it's happening everywhere.

從區域角度來看，我確實認為——我必須考慮這一點，然後才能跟進。我們可以透過一對一通話進行跟進。我認為這種現像在南部和東南部可能比在其他地區更常見。但我想說這種事隨處都在發生。

And then the cadence is just pretty much growth starting in Q2 and beyond. I think as we get Elliott Homes up and running, you'll see a pop starting in Q2 with all that activity popping in. And then -- so it's pretty steady growth out from here and mostly across all the regions, although probably skewed a little bit more to the Southeast.

然後節奏從第二季及以後開始基本上呈現成長趨勢。我認為，隨著 Elliott Homes 的啟動和運營，您將從第二季度開始看到各種活動的湧現。然後 — — 因此從這裡開始，它的增長相當穩定，並且基本上覆蓋所有地區，儘管可能更偏向東南部。

Stephen Kim, Evercore.

史蒂芬金（Stephen Kim），Evercore。

I appreciate all the color. I had to step off briefly so I hope I don't repeat anything. But I guess my first question relates to your longer-term land strategy. Hilla, you had sort of hinted that there might be something innovative coming there. Just curious if you could give us any update. And I guess as a prompt, I've been hearing that you're looking into expanding your JVs.

我欣賞這一切的色彩。我必須暫時離開一下，所以我希望不會重複任何事情。但我想我的第一個問題與您的長期土地策略有關。希拉，你似乎暗示過那裡可能會出現一些創新的東西。我只是好奇您是否能向我們提供任何最新消息。我想，作為提示，我聽說您正在考慮擴大您的合資企業。

Some folks in the industry have been talking about a level of financing availability that's quite high, I've been hearing in the multibillion-dollar range. And so I was curious if you could talk about what you're doing there and how we might see that affect your overall land holdings and inventory balance in the next, let's say, two to three years.

業內一些人一直在談論相當高的融資可用性水平，我聽說融資金額高達數十億美元。所以我很好奇，您能否談談您在那裡做什麼，以及我們可能會看到這將如何影響您在未來兩到三年的整體土地持有量和庫存平衡。

Thanks for the question, Stephen. And your little birdies telling you what's out there are correct. We actually have signed our first relationship with a partner on a joint venture structure that will allow us to finance land particularly in California in a significantly more efficient manner.

謝謝你的提問，史蒂芬。你的小鳥告訴你那裡發生的事情是正確的。事實上，我們已經與合作夥伴簽署了第一份合資協議，這將使我們能夠以更有效率的方式為加州的土地融資。

As everyone is aware, California is a fantastic place to buy land but it's also one of the most difficult parts of the country to get that land ready to go vertical. So we have a partner who is extremely well versed with California land development who is providing financing for some off-balance sheet structures for us.

眾所周知，加州是購買土地的絕佳地點，但它也是美國最難將土地用於垂直開發和建設的地區之一。因此，我們有一位非常熟悉加州土地開發的合作夥伴，他為我們的某些表外結構提供融資。

So you'll definitely see an increase of off-balance sheet usage for us, particularly in California. The structure is a little bit different than a traditional land bank, and we're not going to get into the minutiae of details on here. But it provides a healthy return for both parties in a way that's slightly more accretive than a traditional land bank structure.

因此，你肯定會看到我們的表外業務使用量增加，特別是在加州。其結構與傳統土地銀行略有不同，我們不會在這裡討論其細節。但它為雙方帶來了豐厚的回報，而且比傳統的土地儲備結構略有增值。

So we're going to give it a shot. We're going to roll with it for a little while, see how it works. We've already put a couple of deals into this venture. So we're already up and running. And then based on the success, which we expect to be fantastic, we'll see how we can roll something similar throughout the rest of the country.

所以我們要嘗試一下。我們將嘗試一段時間，看看它的效果如何。我們已經為這個企業簽署了幾項協議。因此我們已經開始運行了。然後，基於我們期望的巨大成功，我們將考慮如何在全國其他地區推廣類似的措施。

Got it. So -- but yes, okay. So my sense is that California venture is probably like longer-term, longer duration kind of stuff. I had a sense that you had already had some agreements in place for a broader across the country with maybe a couple of other players. Is that something you're still sort of -- you're going to work on this California venture like as an incubator or whatever, you're going to see it first before you go live with any other JVs?

知道了。所以 —— 但是是的，好的。所以我的感覺是，加州的投資可能是長期的、持續時間較長的。我感覺你已經和其他幾個參與者在全國範圍內達成了一些協議。您是否仍會這樣想——您將把這個加州企業作為孵化器或其他什麼來開展工作，在與任何其他合資企業合作之前，您會先了解它的情況嗎？

That's, I guess, the question. And would those other JVs also be longer duration? If you can kind of give us some sense of kind of the duration of these deals. Because everyone's got [Melrose] in mind, which is a much shorter duration kind of thing.

我想，這就是問題所在。其它合資企業的持續時間是否也會更長？如果您能告訴我們這些交易的持續時間是多少的話。因為每個人心裡想的都是《梅爾羅斯》，這是一部持續時間短得多的電影。

So first of all, we have not abandoned traditional land banking relationships. We do have other land banking relationships across the country. The joint venture structure is really more something -- so in California, everything takes a little bit longer so it's slightly longer duration. But I don't want to intimate that something is going in their pre-entitlement.

所以首先，我們並沒有放棄傳統的土地銀行關係。我們確實在全國各地擁有其他土地銀行關係。合資結構實際上更為重要——在加州，一切都需要更長的時間，因此持續時間會更長一些。但我不想暗示他們在權利方面有某些事情發生。

So it's not something that is happening on a significantly extended basis than an extended basis because everything in California is on an extended basis. So this is something that we're going to pilot. It's already working fairly well. And we're not abandoning existing land banking relationships. But if this structure proves to be as fruitful as we expect it to be, then it's probably something that we'll roll out in a similar fashion in other markets.

因此，這並不是在比長期基礎上顯著延長的基礎上發生的事情，因為加州的一切都是在長期基礎上發生的事情。這是我們要試行的。它已經運行得相當好了。我們不會放棄現有的土地銀行關係。但如果事實證明這種結構如我們預期的那樣富有成效，那麼我們可能會以類似的方式在其他市場推出它。

Yes. I think -- Stephen, this is Philippe, I'll just add. The opportunity we see at Meritage Homes is really some of these larger, longer-term deals across the country. And then the longer-term deals in California, just because of the regulatory environment, if we can place those in a JV structure, we think it drives tremendous capital efficiency.

是的。我認為——史蒂芬，這是菲利普，我只是補充一下。我們在 Meritage Homes 看到的機會實際上是全國範圍內的一些規模更大、期限更長的交易。然後，對於加州的長期交易，僅僅因為監管環境，如果我們能夠將其置於合資結構中，我們認為這將帶來巨大的資本效率。

Typically, those longer, bigger deals have more margin in them as well. So there's an opportunity to bring in a JV partner and pay a JV partner while also still preserving our normal homebuilding margins.

通常來說，那些期限較長、規模較大的交易也能夠帶來更多的利潤。因此，我們有機會引入合資夥伴並向合資夥伴付款，同時仍保持我們正常的房屋建築利潤率。

Yeah. That's awesome. Well, really interested to see how that evolves. Regarding your operating margin, it was really kind of you to address and volunteer that long-term sustainable level that you see for gross margin and SG&A. And I was struck by the fact that they were both basically the same as what you had told us about six or seven months ago, which I think is encouraging.

是的。太棒了。嗯，真的很想知道事情會如何發展。關於您的營業利潤率，非常感謝您主動提及並提出您認為的毛利率和銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）的長期可持續水平。令我震驚的是，它們與您六、七個月前告訴我們的內容基本相同，我認為這令人鼓舞。

But I know that the issue around longer-term sustainable margins is a huge debate point right now for the investor base. And most people think that operating margins are going to go back to the high single digits. And so you're obviously seeing something very different here.

但我知道，圍繞長期可持續利潤率的問題目前是投資者群體爭論的焦點。大多數人認為營業利潤率將回升至個位數的高點。所以你在這裡顯然看到了一些非常不同的東西。

I was curious if you could talk about -- if you could contextualize what we've seen in the last six to seven months, where there has been a very significant, noticeable reduction in the profitability coming out of the builders' community, and you're seeing some of that too, why that's not shaking your longer-term sustainable margin outlook. Because I think that's going to be something that would be very helpful for the investors to understand.

我很好奇，您能否談談——如果您可以具體說明一下我們在過去六到七個月中看到的情況，即建築商社區的盈利能力出現了非常顯著的下降，而您也看到了其中的一些情況，那麼為什麼這並沒有動搖您長期可持續利潤率的前景。因為我認為這對投資人理解這一點非常有幫助。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Steve. I think at the start of this, I'll just say, it all starts with how we buy land. So we bought 14,000 lots here in the last quarter. We're up to 85,000 lots from 60,000 lots. And as we look at those lots, although land has certainly gotten more expensive, we haven't had to compromise our long-term underwriting and what those -- what the margin profile can be on that land based on our current operational structure.

是的。謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。我認為，首先我想說，這一切都始於我們如何購買土地。因此，我們上個季度在這裡購買了 14,000 手。我們的手數從 60,000 手增加到了 85,000 手。當我們審視這些地塊時，雖然土地價格肯定已經上漲，但我們不必在長期承保方面做出妥協，也不必擔心基於我們目前的營運結構，這些土地的利潤率會是多少。

Now clearly, we're operating in an elevated incentive environment right now, but that is largely driven by the 7% interest rates. That's really what's impacting the last two quarters of margin. If those elevated incentive rates weren't running, we'd be well above our structural long term.

很明顯，我們目前處於較高的激勵環境中，但這主要是由 7% 的利率推動的。這才是真正影響過去兩季利潤率的因素。如果沒有這些高額的激勵利率，我們的長期結構將遠高於預期。

And once again, we're not having any issue finding land across our geographic footprint to support the long-term margins or better that we see going forward. Now if rates stay elevated for the next five years when we bring all that land into the market and we have to continue operating in this elevated incentive environment, but they could be lower like they are right now, but long term, in a normal rate environment, we feel very good about our long-term prospects given the land that we're buying.

再說一次，我們在尋找遍布我們地理範圍的土地以支持長期利潤或更好的未來利潤方面沒有遇到任何問題。現在，如果未來五年利率保持高位，當我們將所有土地投入市場時，我們必須繼續在這種高激勵環境中運營，但利率可能會像現在一樣較低，但從長遠來看，在正常的利率環境下，考慮到我們購買的土地，我們對我們的長期前景感到非常樂觀。

I would say that the margins that we tell about for Q1, as we said, are what we're seeing in the market literally right this minute. And also, you can tell by the guidance of the units, it's not going to be a high-volume quarter for us with our midpoint target is 16.5.

我想說的是，我們所說的第一季的利潤率就是我們此刻在市場上看到的利潤率。而且，從單位的指導中你可以看出，這對我們來說不會是一個高銷量的季度，因為我們的中點目標是 16.5。

So we should be able to hopefully come out of the year -- even if conditions hold flat, for the remainder of the year, you should see an accretion in the margin on sheer volume leveraging alone. So you should be able to get back into that long-term margin even in today's tough environment by the end of the year.

因此，我們應該能夠滿懷希望地走出今年的困境——即使情況保持不變，在今年剩餘的時間裡，你應該會看到，僅憑純粹的數量槓桿，利潤率就會增加。因此，即使在當今嚴峻的環境下，到今年年底您也應該能夠重新獲得長期利潤。

We delivered for the full year 2024 north of 24% margins, and that was in a very competitive interest rate environment where consumers were going through some bit of shock. And really Q3 and Q4 was the impact of that, but we still achieved well above our long-term targets. So I think we feel really comfortable based on our cost structure, our ability to drive efficiencies in this new operating model that we're going to be right where we need to be long term.

我們預計 2024 年全年利潤率將超過 24%，而當時的利率環境競爭非常激烈，消費者也受到了一定程度的衝擊。雖然第三季和第四季確實受到了這一影響，但我們的成績仍遠遠超出我們的長期目標。因此，我認為，基於我們的成本結構以及我們在這種新營運模式下提高效率的能力，我們感到非常放心，我們將長期處於我們需要的位置。

Carl Reichardt, BTIG.

BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

So you talked, I think, about cycle times vertically for house construction. I'm curious about cycle times on the development turning to horizontal, not entitlements but just the process once you start digging dirt to when you get to finish line. How would those cycle times sort of peak post COVID to now?

所以我認為，您垂直談論的是房屋建築的周期時間。我對開發轉向水平的周期時間感到好奇，不是權利，而是從開始挖掘泥土到到達終點線的過程。從新冠疫情之後到現在，這些週期時間的峰值如何？

Yeah. They're still really elevated. There's just not enough folks out there moving dirt. So the land development game has shrunk dramatically. We do most of our land development in-house. And so those times are very, very long right now. They've got long through COVID, and they really haven't shrunk since then.

是的。它們仍然非常高。只是沒有足夠的人去搬運泥土。因此土地開發業務規模大幅縮水。我們的大部分土地開發工作都是內部完成的。所以現在這些時間已經非常非常長了。它們在疫情期間已經存在了很長時間，從那時起它們確實沒有縮水。

They sort of stabilized at that longer level which is, frankly, about double what they were. That's kind of how we model our community count openings where we're doing self-development. They're stable, though, that's the good news.

它們在較長時期內保持穩定，坦率地說，大約是原來的兩倍。這就是我們在進行自我發展的過程中模擬社區計數開放的方式。但他們很穩定，這是好消息。

At least they're not moving around on us like they were for the last three years. They're pretty predictable at this point. They're pretty consistent at their point. They seem to be performing at that longer, elongated time line. But we're not seeing anything out there to suggest that those will come down at least in the short term.

至少他們不再像過去三年那樣對我們騷擾。在這一點上，它們是相當可預測的。他們的觀點相當一致。他們似乎正在那條更長、更拉長的時間線上表演。但我們沒有看到任何跡象表明這些數字至少在短期內會下降。

How many months, Philippe? Could you tell me?

菲利普，幾個月了？你能告訴我嗎？

I don't know exactly. I don't want to just speak off the cuff, but I know that they're at least double what they used to be when things were prior to COVID. So we can get back to you on the one-on-one, but I don't know exactly what those are.

我不太清楚。我不想即興發言，但我知道，與新冠疫情之前相比，現在的數量至少增加了一倍。因此，我們可以就一對一的問題回覆您，但我不知道具體是什麼。

Yeah. They also vary. I mean, you don't buy every piece of land in a state of completion, and there's different timelines across the country, as we just mentioned California is longer than maybe Arizona. And if you buy a piece of [roger] versus partially completed. So it's hard to have a number. It's just longer.

是的。它們也各有不同。我的意思是，你不會購買每一塊已完工的土地，而且全國各地的時間表也不同，正如我們剛才提到的，加州的時間表可能比亞利桑那州的時間表更長。如果你購買一塊[roger]而不是部分完成的。所以很難給一個數字。只是時間更長。

But what I do know is I look at every single land deal that comes through the company and they're not coming down.

但我所知道的是，我查看了該公司達成的每一筆土地交易，價格都沒有下降。

Okay. And then just, I mean, everyone all think about you as an entry-level builder building smaller houses, but you have at least a passel of move-down customers. And I'm curious if you can share or if you know maybe what percentage of your customer base is actually a move down previous owner of a home? And whether or not that changed during '24, you expect it to change as you go forward? Thanks.

好的。然後，我的意思是，每個人都認為你是一個建造小型房屋的入門級建築商，但你至少有一群搬下樓的客戶。我很好奇，您是否可以分享一下，或者您是否知道您的客戶群中有多少比例實際上是房屋的前業主？無論這種情況在 24 年是否發生了變化，您預計它會隨著前進而改變嗎？謝謝。

Yes. I mean move down is not necessarily just a previous owner of a home since we also have first time move up. But move down is a smaller percentage of our total business, maybe about a third all in.

是的。我的意思是向下移動並不一定只是房子的前房主，因為我們也有第一次向上移動的情況。但降價只占我們整個業務的比例較小，大概佔三分之一。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

My first question is just thinking high level about demand. If we do see fewer Fed rate cuts this year and perhaps that brings just more stability to mortgage rates regardless of what the level is, do you think that, that could be enough to get some people off the sidelines and to see perhaps some relative easing on some of the headwinds and the demand pressures that you've seen? Or do you think that rates actually need to come down in order to see a bigger increase in activity?

我的第一個問題只是從高層次思考需求。如果今年聯準會確實減少降息次數，或許無論抵押貸款利率處於什麼水平，這都會帶來更多的穩定性，您是否認為，這足以讓一些人不再袖手旁觀，並可能看到一些阻力和需求壓力得到相對緩解？或者您認為利率實際上需要下降才能看到活動的更大增長？

Yes. Great question. I feel like if they just stabilized, that would be very, very helpful. The spread is still way too wide as well, which makes it very expensive to buy the rate buydowns. So that would certainly be a tailwind for margins. And then if they came down while stabilizing, it would only be a huge benefit.

是的。好問題。我覺得如果他們穩定下來，那將會非常非常有幫助。利差仍然太大，這使購買利率回購的成本非常高。因此，這對於利潤率來說無疑是一個利好。然後，如果它們在穩定下來的同時下來，那將會帶來巨大的好處。

But I certainly agree with your thesis that a more predictable, stable, less volatile rate environment gives consumers confidence in what their numbers are going to be versus them trying to time the market, deciding whether it's a good time to buy or not would be very helpful.

但我當然同意你的論點，即更可預測、更穩定、波動性更小的利率環境可以讓消費者對自己的數據充滿信心，而不是試圖把握市場時機，決定是否是購買的好時機，這將非常有幫助。

Stabilization in interest rate markets at whatever level also helps our cost on rate locks, right? They're also based on volatility expectations. So the stability would not just help consumer confidence. It would also help our cost structure on the rate locks.

無論利率市場在什麼水準上保持穩定，也有助於我們降低利率鎖定成本，對嗎？它們也基於波動性預期。因此，穩定不僅有助於增強消費者信心。這也有助於我們鎖定利率的成本結構。

Yeah. Okay. That's helpful. And then when you think about the year ahead and just the conditions that you're facing out there, any thoughts on how we should think about that conversion rate as we move into past the first quarter and into the rest of the year? Just anything there that we should be aware of or thoughtful of as we're going through this?

是的。好的。這很有幫助。然後，當您考慮未來的一年以及您面臨的條件時，當我們進入第一季和今年剩餘時間時，您應該如何看待轉換率？當我們經歷這一切時，有什麼是我們應該注意或考慮的嗎？

Are you talking about our backlog conversion rate?

您說的是我們的積壓轉換率嗎？

Yeah, yeah.

是啊是啊。

No, I think we feel pretty good about where it's at. Our strategy is fully rolled out at this point. So we're basically selling move-in ready homes across the country, except for probably Elliott Homes that we just acquired.

不，我想我們對目前的狀況感覺相當滿意。至此，我們的策略已全面展開。因此，我們基本上在全國各地銷售可入住的房屋，除了我們剛收購的 Elliott Homes。

So it'll take a little time for us to get there. So what you're seeing in the last couple of quarters is probably where we're going to run. The only thing that's out there that could impact that potentially any cycle time expansion. And right now, we're not seeing anything that would suggest our cycle times will get longer. But we'll see how the year goes.

所以我們需要一點時間才能到達那裡。因此，您在過去幾季所看到的可能就是我們將要走的路。唯一可能影響週期時間延長的因素是任何潛在因素。而現在，我們還沒有看到任何跡象顯示我們的週期時間會變得更長。但我們會看到今年的情況如何。

We appreciate that our current run rate is significantly north of our long-term guidance, and that's probably part of the genesis of the question. The reason that we're not changing our long-term guidance yet is we've only had two, three quarters after a partial rollout of the strategy. I think we need to have the strategy be live under a couple of other economic cycles, and then we'll have confidence to say if our prior long-term target is the right one or if we need to bring it back up.

我們意識到我們目前的運作率遠高於我們的長期指導水平，這可能是問題產生的部分原因。我們尚未改變長期指導的原因是，我們才剛實施了部分策略的兩到三個季度。我認為，我們需要在其他幾個經濟週期下實施這項策略，然後我們就有信心判斷我們先前的長期目標是否正確，或者我們是否需要將其再次上調。

Alex Barron, Housing Research Center.

住房研究中心亞歷克斯·巴倫 (Alex Barron) 說。

I was hoping you could help me understand your thought process around starts versus incentives versus sales pace. What I mean is what's sort of the main driver that you guys focus on in this sense? If let's say, you're targeting four sales a month, which would also imply roughly four starts a month.

我希望您能幫助我理解您關於開始、激勵和銷售速度的思考過程。我的意思是，從這個意義上來說，你們關注的主要驅動因素是什麼？假設您的目標是每月進行四次銷售，這也意味著每月大約有四次啟動。

But if the market isn't doing that, you then -- if you start to pile up, let's say, a few specs more than you were hoping, do you increase the incentive? Or do you slow down the starts space? How are you guys sort of thinking about that, balancing that?

但如果市場沒有這樣做，那麼——如果你開始堆積比你希望的多一些的規格，你會增加激勵嗎？還是你減慢了起始空間的速度？你們是如何考慮並平衡這個問題的？

Yeah, great question. I think at the end of the day, we want to do four or more a month per subdivision, and that drives everything else. So if we're achieving four per month, we're trying to maximize our margins at four a month.

是的，很好的問題。我認為最終我們希望每個細分市場每月完成四項或更多任務，這將推動一切。因此，如果我們要實現每月四次的目標，我們就會嘗試以每月四次的速度來最大化我們的利潤。

If we're not achieving four a month, we're adjusting incentives appropriately to get to four a month. The starts pace, at the end of the day, we just want to align with our sales pace. We're able to slow down starts modestly this year because our cycle times are much better, so we can now mirror our sales pace exactly. But at the end of the day, it's four a month and maximize margins if. We can't get four a month, we make adjustments to get to four a month and then align our starts pace appropriately.

如果我們每月沒有達到四次，我們會適當調整激勵措施以達到每月四次。歸根究底，我們只是希望起始速度與銷售速度保持一致。由於我們的周期時間好了很多，我們今年能夠適度放慢開工速度，因此我們現在可以準確地反映我們的銷售速度。但最終，每月有四次，並且可以最大化利潤。我們無法達到每月四次，因此我們會做出調整，達到每月四次，然後適當調整我們的起跑速度。

And does the competitive environment have a lot to do with that? In other words, like -- well, you mentioned interest rates, right? So interest rates are at 7%. But like let's say, if some other competitors are willing to drop their advertised rates to, I don't know, let's say, 3.5%. Even though that's a big hurt on margins, are you guys willing to chase that? Or is there some point where you say, well, maybe I won't get four sales a month, but I'm not going to drop my margins that low to try to get there.

競爭環境與此有很大關係嗎？換句話說，就像——嗯，你提到了利率，對吧？因此利率為7%。但是，如果其他競爭對手願意將廣告價格降低到，我不知道，比如說 3.5%。儘管這對利潤率會造成很大的傷害，但你們願意追求它嗎？或者你會說，好吧，也許我一個月不會賣出四件商品，但我不會為了達到這個目標而把利潤降得那麼低。

I mean, obviously, it's -- again, it's market by market, community by community. But if we're surrounded by a bunch of competitors that are willing to make adjustments and that is impacting our ability to get four a month, we're going to do what we need to do to get four a month.

我的意思是，顯然，這是—再說一次，這是一個市場一個市場、一個社區一個社區的事情。但如果我們周圍有一群願意做出調整的競爭對手，而這影響了我們每月獲得四份的能力，那麼我們就會盡我們所能，爭取每月獲得四份。

So we'll do whatever it takes to get for four a month based on the competitive environment. But our sense in general is that it's not so much the competition right now, it's the interest rate that's affecting our ability on a community-by-community basis to get four a month.

因此，我們將根據競爭環境，盡一切努力爭取每月獲得四個。但我們總體上的感覺是，目前的問題並不是競爭，而是利率影響了我們每個社區每月獲得四筆貸款的能力。

Jade Rahmani, KBW.

傑德·拉赫馬尼（Jade Rahmani），KBW。

In Phoenix, new listings look to be up about 10% year-over-year according to one broker. Have you seen that? And do you have any color as to what's driving that, I mean, if it's affecting your markets?

據一位經紀人稱，鳳凰城的新房源數量預計將年增約 10%。你見過嗎？您是否知道是什麼導致了這種現象，我的意思是，它是否影響了您的市場？

So for Phoenix particular, the existing home market, the retail inventory is up year-over-year. So it's out there. But again, as we said in our opening comments, a lot of that existing home product is not really in our price point or in our submarkets. Some of it's further out.

特別是對於鳳凰城現有的房屋市場來說，零售庫存較去年同期成長。所以它就在那裡。但是，正如我們在開場白中所說的那樣，許多現有的家居產品實際上並不在我們的價格範圍內，也不適合我們的子市場。有些地方比較遠。

So it's impacting a couple of communities here and there for sure. We're happy to make adjustments appropriately to compete with that. But overall, the Phoenix market is extremely strong. We're seeing tremendous job growth, tremendous immigration.

所以它肯定會對一些社區產生影響。我們很樂意做出適當的調整來應對這一競爭。但總體而言，鳳凰城市場極為強勁。我們看到了巨大的就業成長和龐大的移民數量。

So overall, our Phoenix prospects are looking really, really good. The other thing I would say is, once again, we offer rate locks and rate buydowns while the existing home market isn't really offering that. So that gives it a kind of competitive advantage. Even as retail starts to grow in these markets, we have a strategic advantage that we can leverage to capture sales.

所以總體來說，我們的菲尼克斯的前景看起來非常非常好。我想說的另一件事是，我們再次提供利率鎖定和利率買斷，而現有房屋市場實際上並沒有提供這些服務。這給了它一種競爭優勢。即使這些市場的零售業開始成長，我們仍然可以利用策略優勢來獲得銷售。

And then secondly, I think in your comments, you said there was a 4% sales price decline reflecting incentives. And I just wanted to check if the mortgage buydown incentive, which I believe is the predominant incentive, affects net realized sales price at all.

其次，我認為您在評論中說，銷售價格下降了 4%，反映了激勵措施。我只是想檢查抵押貸款買斷激勵措施（我認為這是主要的激勵措施）是否會影響淨實現銷售價格。

So the incentive does directly affect the average sales price that we report, although that's not the entire drop. There was also a notable shift out of our higher ASP region of the West into the East region. So it's both a shift in geographies, also a shift in product mix.

因此，激勵措施確實直接影響了我們報告的平均銷售價格，儘管這並不是全部的下降。我們的銷售價格也明顯從西部較高的地區轉移到了東部地區。所以這既是地域的轉變，也是產品結構的轉變。

We also noted that we have a higher percentage of our homes being the entry-level versus the first time move-up and the increased component that relates to the incentives. So we're not going to break out the different components but it's the combination. But we are verifying that the -- or confirming, I should say, that any incentives that we offer, financing or otherwise, from Meritage runs through average sales price.

我們也注意到，我們的入門級房屋比例高於首次購屋者，而且與激勵措施相關的部分也增加了。因此，我們不會分解不同的組件，而是將其組合起來。但我們正在驗證——或者說確認，我們提供的任何激勵措施，無論是融資還是其他，都是透過 Meritage 的平均銷售價格來實施的。

Thank you, operator. I'd like to thank everyone who joined this call today for your continued interest in Meritage Homes. We hope you have a great rest of your day. Goodbye.

謝謝您，接線生。我要感謝今天參加本次電話會議的所有人對 Meritage Homes 的持續關注。我們希望您今天剩餘的時間能夠過得很愉快。再見。

This will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開您的線路了。