Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Meritage Homes third-quarter 2024 analyst call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Emily Tadano, Vice President, Investor Relations and ESG. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎致電 Meritage Homes 2024 年第三季分析師電話。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係和 ESG 副總裁 Emily Tadano。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our analyst call to discuss our third quarter 2024 results. We issued the press release yesterday after the market closed. You can find it along with the slides we'll refer to during this call on our website at investors.meritagehomes.com or by selecting the Investor Relations link at the bottom of our homepage.

謝謝你，接線生。早安，歡迎分析師致電討論我們 2024 年第三季的業績。我們昨天收盤後發布了新聞稿。您可以在我們的網站 Investors.meritagehomes.com 上找到它以及我們在本次電話會議期間參考的幻燈片，或者選擇我們主頁底部的投資者關係連結。

Please refer to slide two, cautioning you that our statements during this call as well as in the earnings release and accompanying slides contain forward-looking statements. Those and any other projections represent the current opinions of management, which are subject to change at any time, and we assume no obligation to update them. Any forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain.

請參閱投影片二，提醒您我們在本次電話會議以及收益發布和隨附幻燈片中的聲明均包含前瞻性聲明。這些和任何其他預測代表了管理層當前的意見，可能隨時發生變化，我們不承擔更新這些意見的義務。任何前瞻性陳述本質上都是不確定的。

Our actual results may be materially different than our expectations due to a wide variety of risk factors, which we have identified and listed on this slide as well as in our earnings release and most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically our 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent 10-Qs. We've also provided a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our earnings release as compared to their closest related GAAP measures.

由於各種風險因素，我們的實際結果可能與我們的預期有重大差異，我們已在本投影片以及我們的收益發布和最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中識別並列出了這些風險因素，特別是我們的2023 年年度報告報告 10-K 表格和隨後的 10-Q 表格。我們也提供了收益報告中提到的某些非公認會計原則財務指標與其最相關的公認會計原則指標的調節表。

With us today to discuss our results are Steve Hilton, Executive Chairman; Phillippe Lord, CEO; and Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and CFO of Meritage Homes. We expect today's call to last about an hour. A replay will be available on our website later today. I'll now turn it over to Mr. Hilton. Steve?

今天與我們一起討論我們的結果的是執行主席史蒂夫希爾頓 (Steve Hilton)；菲利普·洛德，執行長；以及 Meritage Homes 執行副總裁兼財務長 Hilla Sferruzza。我們預計今天的電話會議將持續約一個小時。今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供重播。我現在把它交給希爾頓先生。史蒂夫？

Thank you, Emily. Welcome to everyone listening in on our call. I'll start by touching on what we're experiencing in the market today and cover some of our recent company news. Phillippe will share a little more information about the Gulf Coast acquisition we announced this morning and then highlight how our new strategic pivot is reflecting in our quarterly performance. And Hilla will provide a financial overview of the third quarter and forward-looking guidance.

謝謝你，艾米麗。歡迎大家收聽我們的電話。我將首先談談我們今天在市場上遇到的情況，並介紹我們最近的一些公司新聞。菲利普將分享更多有關我們今天早上宣布的墨西哥灣沿岸收購的信息，然後重點介紹我們的新戰略支點如何反映在我們的季度業績中。Hilla 將提供第三季的財務概覽和前瞻性指導。

Let me kick this off by welcoming our newest Board member, Ms. Erin Lantz, to the Meritage family. We look forward to her insights, particularly in technology and financial services. And for anyone that missed our release earlier this month, we also announced our continuation of the declassification process of our Board of Directors. We are proud to be able to continue to take on corporate governance initiatives that align with our shareholders -- with what our shareholders have told us is most important to them.

首先，我先歡迎我們最新的董事會成員 Erin Lantz 女士加入 Meritage 大家庭。我們期待她的見解，特別是在科技和金融服務方面。對於那些錯過了本月早些時候發布的信息的人，我們也宣布繼續董事會的解密過程。我們很自豪能夠繼續採取與我們的股東保持一致的公司治理舉措——股東告訴我們對他們來說最重要的事情。

Now let's turn to our Q3 results. Q3 was another strong quarter for Meritage, where we again demonstrated that our strategy focused on affordable move-in ready homes is resonating with home buyers. Our rate buydowns in July and August and the pullback in mortgage rates in September, all contributed to order volume that slightly outpaced traditional seasonality.

現在讓我們看看第三季的結果。第三季度是 Meritage 的另一個強勁季度，我們再次證明，我們專注於經濟實惠的可入住現成房屋的策略與購屋者產生了共鳴。我們在 7 月和 8 月的利率下調以及 9 月抵押貸款利率的回落，都導致訂單量略高於傳統季節性。

Our third quarter 2024 orders totaled 3,512 homes, and we achieved an average monthly absorption of 4.1. Our company record backlog conversion of 145% this quarter generated 3,942 home deliveries and home closing revenue of $1.6 billion.

我們 2024 年第三季的訂單總數為 3,512 套，每月均吸收量為 4.1 套。本季度，我們公司的積壓訂單轉換率為 145%，創下了 145% 的記錄，送貨上門次數為 3,942 次，送貨上門收入達 16 億美元。

Our 60-day closing commitment is gaining momentum across all our communities and was the driver behind our increasing backlog conversion rates. Home closing gross margin for the quarter was 24.8%, which, combined with SG&A leverage of 9.9%, resulted in diluted EPS of $5.34. As of September 30, 2024, we increased our book value per share 15% year over year to $139.02 and generated a return on equity of 17.2%.

我們的 60 天結帳承諾正在我們所有社區中獲得動力，也是我們不斷提高積壓訂單轉換率的驅動力。本季家庭收盤毛利率為 24.8%，加上 9.9% 的 SG&A 槓桿，攤薄後每股收益為 5.34 美元。截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們的每股帳面價值年增 15% 至 139.02 美元，股本回報率為 17.2%。

Now on to slide 4 for some recent acknowledgment of our corporate citizenship. We received the EPA's 2024 Indoor airPLUS Leader Award for the fourth year in a row for building homes that are designed to promote safer, healthier and more comfortable indoor environments by participating in the Indoor airPLUS program and offering enhanced indoor air quality protections.

現在轉到投影片 4，了解我們最近對企業公民的一些認可。我們連續第四年榮獲EPA 2024 年室內airPLUS 領導者獎，表彰我們通過參與室內airPLUS 計劃並提供增強的室內空氣質量保護，建造了旨在促進更安全、更健康和更​​舒適的室內環境的住宅。

As a result of our workplace culture and employee engagement, we were honored to earn the Great Place to Work certification for a second consecutive year. We also made the 2024 Fortune Best Places -- Best Workplaces in Construction list and Best Workplaces for Women list, as well as Arizona's Most Admired Companies for 2024.

由於我們的工作場所文化和員工敬業度，我們很榮幸連續第二年獲得「最佳工作場所」認證。我們還入選了 2024 年《財富》最佳場所——建築業最佳工作場所名單和最佳女性工作場所名單，以及 2024 年亞利桑那州最受尊敬的公司。

In August, we published our fourth annual ESG report, which also encompasses our Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. We encourage everyone to read it and know more about our efforts and progress related to sustainability and social initiatives. And with that, I'll now turn it over to Phillippe.

八月，我們發布了第四份年度 ESG 報告，其中還包括我們的氣候相關財務揭露工作小組。我們鼓勵每個人閱讀它並更多地了解我們在永續發展和社會倡議方面的努力和進展。現在，我將把它交給菲利普。

Thank you, Steve. I'll address our acquisition press release first, as we are guessing that is top of mind for everyone. This morning, we announced we completed our acquisition of the assets of Elliott Homes, a prominent private builder operating in the Gulf Coast. This marks our first acquisition since 2014 and is a great strategic fit for Meritage given the strength of the Gulf Coast markets in Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle and the alignment on affordability and product geared toward the first-time homebuyer.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。我將首先討論我們的收購新聞稿，因為我們猜測這是每個人最關心的問題。今天早上，我們宣布完成了對 Elliott Homes 資產的收購，Elliott Homes 是一家在墨西哥灣沿岸運營的著名私人建築商。這是我們自2014 年以來的首次收購，考慮到密西西比州、阿拉巴馬州和佛羅裡達州狹長地帶墨西哥灣沿岸市場的實力，以及面向首次購房者的負擔能力和產品的一致性，對於Meritage 來說是一次非常好的策略契合。

We are excited to be working with owner, Brandon Elliott and the opportunities we see in this underserved part of the country. With the supply of over 5,500 lots, we expect to generate meaningful volume from this new division in 2025 and beyond.

我們很高興能與業主布蘭登·埃利奧特（Brandon Elliott）合作，並看到我們在該國這個服務不足的地區看到的機會。憑藉超過 5,500 件的供應量，我們預計這個新部門將在 2025 年及以後產生有意義的銷售。

Now turning to slide 5. Our sales orders for the third quarter were 3,512 homes, with 92% of the volume coming from entry-level homes. Orders were slightly up 1% year over year, with both average community count and absorption pace relatively consistent across both third quarter periods of 2024 and 2023. This quarter's cancellation rate was 10%, remaining below our historical average in the mid-teens.

現在轉到投影片 5。我們第三季的銷售訂單為 3,512 間房屋，其中 92% 來自入門級房屋。訂單量較去年小幅增加 1%，2024 年和 2023 年第三季的平均社區數量和吸收速度都相對一致。本季的取消率為 10%，仍低於歷史平均值。

ASP on orders this quarter of $406,000 was down 6% from prior year due to geographic and product mix shift as well as increased financing incentive costs. Third quarter 2024 ending community count was 278 compared to 287 at June 30, 2024 and 272 at September 30, 2023.

由於地理和產品組合的變化以及融資激勵成本的增加，本季訂單平均售價為 406,000 美元，比去年同期下降 6%。2024 年第三季末的社區數為 278 個，而 2024 年 6 月 30 日為 287 個，2023 年 9 月 30 日為 272 個。

We brought 20 new communities online this quarter, bringing our total year-to-date openings to 90. While we are expecting to end the quarter with a higher community count, stronger demand than anticipated resulted in some early closeouts, and the timing of some community openings slipped into October.

本季我們上線了 20 個新社區，使年初至今開放的社區總數達到 90 個。雖然我們預計本季結束時社區數量會增加，但需求強於預期導致一些社區提前關閉，並且一些社區開放的時間推遲到了 10 月份。

With the Elliott acquisition, we should be comfortably about 300 stores at December 31, 2024, and a further double-digit year-over-year increase by the end of 2025 to help us achieve our 20,000 unit goal in approximately three years.

透過收購 Elliott，到 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們應該可以輕鬆擁有約 300 家門市，並在 2025 年底之前實現兩位數的同比增長，以幫助我們在大約三年內實現 20,000 家門市的目標。

As we are in the final days of October, I can also provide some high-level commentary on what we are seeing so far in Q4. Despite rates remaining volatile, we are seeing demand hold relatively steady, with October performance falling fairly in line with September.

由於我們正處於 10 月的最後幾天，我還可以對第四季度迄今為止所看到的情況提供一些高級評論。儘管利率仍然波動，但我們看到需求保持相對穩定，10 月的業績下滑與 9 月相當。

Moving to the regional level trends on slide 6. The central region comprised of our Texas markets had the highest regional average absorption pace of 4.6 per month and an average quarterly backlog conversion rate that has exceeded our minimum target of 125% for the last four quarters. With approximately 35% completed spec inventory in this region, we believe our product and price points will continue to allow us to gain market share.

轉到投影片 6 上的區域層級趨勢。由德州市場組成的中部地區的區域平均吸收速度最高，為每月 4.6，平均季度積壓訂單轉換率超過了我們過去四個季度 125% 的最低目標。該地區約 35% 的已完成規格庫存，我們相信我們的產品和價位將繼續讓我們獲得市場份額。

The West region experienced the largest year-over-year growth in average absorption pace to 4.2 per month in Q3 from 3.6 in the third quarter of 2023. We are continuing to see strength in one of our largest markets, Arizona, with attractive products at the right price points.

西部地區的平均吸收速度年增幅最大，從 2023 年第三季的每月 3.6 增加到第三季的每月 4.2。我們繼續看到我們最大的市場之一亞利桑那州的實力，以合適的價格提供有吸引力的產品。

Before I dive into the East region results, I wanted to comment on the recent devastation from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Our hearts go out to those who were impacted by storm damage and power outages in Florida and the Carolinas. We are happy to report that all of our employees are safe and accounted for.

在深入探討東部地區的結果之前，我想對最近颶風海倫和米爾頓造成的破壞發表評論。我們的心與佛羅裡達州和卡羅來納州遭受風暴破壞和停電影響的人們同在。我們很高興地報告，我們所有的員工都很安全並得到了照顧。

While our September closings were not materially affected, we were unable to facilitate sales for several days. In October so far, we have had minor damage to some of our communities and the power outages and gas outages early in the month have caused some minor construction delays.

雖然我們 9 月的成交量沒有受到重大影響，但我們有幾天無法促進銷售。10月份到目前為止，我們的一些社區受到了輕微損害，月初的停電和燃氣中斷導致了一些輕微的施工延誤。

We anticipate temporary labor dislocation as trade availability is diverted to hurricane repairs in the interim and some short-term impact of sales as potential customers recover from the hurricane. In the third quarter of 2024, the east region had an average absorption pace of 3.8 net sales per month, in line with traditional seasonality as the Florida markets are closer to return to historical levels of retail inventory.

我們預計，由於貿易供應將暫時轉移到颶風維修上，因此會出現暫時的勞動力混亂，而隨著潛在客戶從颶風中恢復過來，銷售也會受到一些短期影響。2024 年第三季度，東部地區的平均吸收速度為每月 3.8 份淨銷售額，與傳統季節性相符，因為佛羅裡達市場接近恢復零售庫存歷史水準。

Overall, we do expect markets to return to a more balanced new home versus resale equilibrium in the future, with some of our submarkets already experiencing increased competition from existing home inventory. It was with this expectation in mind that we embarked on our strategic evolution to bring our homes to a near completion stage before we start the sales process so we can meet a similar closing time line as existing resale.

總體而言，我們確實預計未來市場將恢復到新房與轉售之間更加平衡的平衡狀態，我們的一些子市場已經面臨著來自現有房屋庫存的日益激烈的競爭。正是懷著這種期望，我們開始了策略演變，在開始銷售流程之前使我們的房屋接近完工階段，以便我們能夠滿足與現有轉售相似的截止時間。

We believe our targeted market segments of entry-level and first move-up homes remains undersupplied even with the increase in retail listings and that our product continues to be attractive. We also have a competitive advantage related to affordability.

我們相信，即使零售房源數量增加，我們的入門級和首次升級房屋的目標細分市場仍然供應不足，而且我們的產品仍然具有吸引力。我們也擁有與負擔能力相關的競爭優勢。

As unlike existing home sellers, we can offer financing incentives. We are confident that our strategy allows us to target the largest piece of the potential homebuyer pool by effectively competing in this resale inventory, which we believe will help us continue to grow our market share even as existing home inventory reenters the market.

與現有房屋賣家不同，我們可以提供融資獎勵措施。我們相信，我們的策略使我們能夠透過有效競爭轉售庫存來瞄準潛在購房者群體中最大的一部分，我們相信這將有助於我們繼續擴大市場份額，即使現有房屋庫存重新進入市場。

Now turning to slide 7. With our high backlog conversion rate, we view our specs and backlog in the aggregate when we look at optimal levels for our targeted closings, as we know about the first four to six weeks of orders will become intra-quarter closings under our new strategy.

現在轉到投影片 7。憑藉我們的高積壓訂單轉換率，當我們考慮目標結單的最佳水平時，我們會查看總體規格和積壓訂單，因為我們知道，根據我們的新策略，前四到六週的訂單將成為季度內結單。

We believe our approximate 9,000 specs and backlog units at September 30, 2024, are the right level of inventory as we move into the last quarter of the year. We started nearly 3,800 homes in the third quarter of 2024.

我們相信，截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們的大約 9,000 個規格和積壓單位是進入今年最後一個季度時的正確庫存水準。我們在 2024 年第三季啟動了近 3,800 套房屋。

Although our start volume was down 5% year-over-year and 12% sequentially from Q2, our average starts pace was in line with our sales pace and traditional seasonality. We had nearly 6,800 spec homes in inventory as of September 30, 2024, up 38% from about 4,900 specs as of September 30, 2023.

儘管我們的開工量年減 5%，比第二季環比下降 12%，但我們的平均開工速度與我們的銷售速度和傳統季節性一致。截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們庫存有近 6,800 套規格住宅，比截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的約 4,900 套規格住宅增加了 38%。

This represented 24 specs per community this quarter with our targeted four to six months applied as we build up more mature specs to ensure we have the right inventory to meet our 60-day closing ready commitment.

這代表本季每個社區有 24 個規格，我們的目標是四到六個月，因為我們建立了更成熟的規格，以確保我們擁有正確的庫存來滿足我們 60 天的結帳準備承諾。

Of our home closings this quarter, 97% came from previously started inventory, up from 89% in the prior year. 33% of total specs were completed as of September 30, 2024. The first time since early 2019, we are at our target of 1/3 move-in ready homes.

本季我們的房屋成交量中，97% 來自先前開工的庫存，高於去年的 89%。截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，已完成總規格的 33%。自 2019 年初以來，我們首次實現了 1/3 入住現房的目標。

With nearly 45% of this quarter's closings also sold within the quarter, our new backlog continues to decline intentionally from about 3,600 as of September 30, 2023, to approximately 2,300 homes as of September 30, 2024. We expect this trend to stabilize once we continually are delivering homes within 60 days in all of our communities.

由於本季成交量的近45% 也在本季內售出，我們的新積壓房屋持續有意減少，從截至2023 年9 月30 日的約3,600 套減少到截至2024 年9 月30 日的約2,300套。我們預計，一旦我們在 60 天內持續在所有社區交付房屋，這一趨勢就會穩定下來。

Before I turn it over to Hilla, I do want to address what is likely going to be one of the Q&A topics, which is the volatile mortgage rate environment, as mortgage rates have continued to elevate through most of October. Our commentary is the same as it has been since the start of COVID in early 2020.

在我把它交給 Hilla 之前，我確實想解決可能成為問答主題之一的問題，即不穩定的抵押貸款利率環境，因為抵押貸款利率在 10 月的大部分時間裡持續上升。我們的評論與 2020 年初新冠疫情爆發以來的評論相同。

We are an agile organization that quickly interprets market cues and adjust accordingly. Our expansion into the top five homebuilder spot two years ago has allowed us to cost effectively focus on delivering quick-turning move-in ready homes while generating outsized profits and gaining market share.

我們是一個敏捷的組織，能夠快速解讀市場線索並做出相應調整。兩年前，我們躋身前五名住宅建築商行列，這使我們能夠以具有成本效益的方式專注於提供快速週轉的可入住房屋，同時創造巨額利潤並贏得市場份額。

With our commitment to growth, we have done and will continue to offer financial incentives, including rate buydowns for as long as they are deemed to be a helpful sales tool as we look to solve for affordable payments for our buyers and maintain our sales pace. We believe that homes in our target price point are undersupplied in the US, and the demand is strong at the right monthly payment.

憑藉我們對成長的承諾，我們已經並將繼續提供財務激勵措施，包括利率購買，只要它們被認為是有用的銷售工具，因為我們希望為買家解決負擔得起的付款問題並保持我們的銷售速度。我們認為，美國目標價位的房屋供應不足，並且在每月付款正確的情況下需求強勁。

While we do expect rates to be elevated for the near term, necessitating the continuation of heavier usage of interest rate buydowns, we also believe that with the influx of millennials and GenZers entering the home buying market, demand will remain consistent and solid. I'll now turn it over to Hilla to walk through our financial results. Hilla?

雖然我們確實預期短期內利率將會上升，因此需要繼續大量使用利率購買，但我們也相信，隨著千禧世代和 Z 世代湧入購屋市場，需求將保持一致和穩定。現在我將把它交給希拉來詳細介紹我們的財務表現。希拉？

Thank you, Phillippe. Let's turn to slide 8 and cover our Q3 results in more detail. We generated $1.6 billion of home closing revenue this quarter, which was a 2% year-over-year decrease, with 8% higher home closing volumes being fully offset by a 9% decrease in ASP on closings due to product and geographic mix.

謝謝你，菲利普。讓我們轉向投影片 8，更詳細地介紹我們的第三季結果。本季我們實現了16 億美元的房屋成交收入，年減2%，房屋成交量增加8%，但由於產品和地域組合導致房屋成交平均售價下降9%，這完全抵消了房屋成交量增長8 % 的影響。

Third quarter 2024 closing ASP also reflected higher utilization of financing incentives compared to both prior year and sequentially from Q2. Home closing gross margin of 24.8% decreased 190 bps in the third quarter of 2024 from 26.7% in the prior year.

2024 年第三季的最終平均售價也反映出，與去年和第二季相比，融資激勵措施的使用率更高。2024 年第三季房屋成交毛利率為 24.8%，較上年同期的 26.7% 下降 190 個基點。

Our 2024 margin reflected higher lot costs as anticipated, the increased utilization of financing incentives, and slightly lower leverage on fixed cost on lower home closing revenue, all of which were partially offset by lower direct costs and shorter cycle times.

我們 2024 年的利潤率反映了預期的批次成本上升、融資激勵措施的利用率增加以及房屋成交收入下降導致固定成本槓桿略有下降，所有這些都被直接成本下降和周期時間縮短部分抵消。

Our cycle times improved about seven days from Q2 to Q3 to around 125 calendar days. We are nearly back to our target of about 120 calendar day cycle time, which would allow us to turn our WIP inventory 3 times a year.

從第二季到第三季度，我們的週期時間縮短了約 7 天，減少到約 125 個日曆日。我們幾乎回到了大約 120 個日曆日週期時間的目標，這將使我們能夠每年將 WIP 庫存週轉 3 次。

Labor capacity remained consistent during the quarter, but given some temporary disruptions to trade availability related to the aftermath of the hurricanes that Phillippe mentioned, Q4 cycle times may be impacted in certain parts of the country. We have been able to reduce direct costs on a per square foot basis each quarter since Q1 of last year as a result of dedicated efforts by our purchasing team, our streamlined operations, which allow us to capture volume discounts from our national vendors and the general increased capacity in those supply chains.

本季勞動力產能保持穩定，但考慮到菲利普提到的颶風後果導致貿易供應出現暫時中斷，該國某些地區的第四季週期時間可能會受到影響。自去年第一季以來，我們每個季度都能夠降低每平方英尺的直接成本，這得益於我們的採購團隊的不懈努力，以及我們簡化的運營，這使我們能夠從國內供應商和一般供應商那裡獲得批量折扣。

On a year-over-year basis, our margins reflect about 4% lower cost per square foot this quarter versus 2023. As we have commented on in the past, while still above historical levels, land development cost increases have been stabilizing over the last several quarters. As a reminder, we have already turned over the majority of our communities from pre-COVID land, so the go-forward impact from higher lot costs will be less material in 2025 and beyond.

與去年同期相比，我們的利潤率反映了本季每平方英尺的成本比 2023 年降低了約 4%。正如我們過去評論的那樣，儘管土地開發成本的增長仍高於歷史水平，但過去幾個季度一直保持穩定。提醒一下，我們已經從新冠肺炎疫情前的土地上移交了大部分社區，因此，到 2025 年及以後，更高的地塊成本對未來的影響將較小。

SG&A as a percentage of third quarter 2024 home closing revenue of 9.9% improved from 10.1% in the third quarter of 2023, due primarily to lower performance-based compensation costs. It's important to note that this quarter, total commissions as a percentage of home closing revenue were flat year-over-year again.

SG&A 佔 2024 年第三季房屋成交收入的百分比為 9.9%，較 2023 年第三季的 10.1% 有所改善，這主要是由於基於績效的薪酬成本降低。值得注意的是，本季總佣金佔房屋成交收入的百分比再次與去年同期持平。

Specifically, external commission rates were the same as Q3 2023 despite our higher co-broke participation as our strategic relationships reduce the need for ad hoc bonuses and incentives. We remain excited and engaged to deepen our relationship with the broker community, which is proving to be a differentiator for us. We expect commissions as a percentage of home closing revenue to remain relatively steady for the rest of the year.

具體而言，儘管我們的共同破產參與度較高，但外部佣金率與 2023 年第三季相同，因為我們的策略關係減少了對臨時獎金和激勵措施的需求。我們仍然興奮並致力於加深我們與經紀商社區的關係，事實證明這對我們來說是一個差異化因素。我們預計佣金佔房屋成交收入的百分比在今年剩餘時間內將保持相對穩定。

For full year 2024, we continue to forecast SG&A guidance of 10% or under. Longer term, we are targeting a 9.5% SG&A percentage of home closing revenue as we grow our existing markets and leverage our overhead platform to reach our 20,000 unit milestone.

對於 2024 年全年，我們繼續預測 SG&A 指引為 10% 或以下。從長遠來看，隨著我們發展現有市場並利用我們的管理平台達到 20,000 台的里程碑，我們的目標是 SG&A 佔成交收入的 9.5%。

The financial services profit of $3.1 million included $3 million of write-offs related to rate lock unwind costs in the first quarter of -- in the third quarter of 2024. The financial services profit of $5.7 million in the third quarter of 2023 had no such write-offs. The third quarter's effective income tax rate was 21.6% this year compared to 22.4% for the third quarter of 2023.

金融服務利潤 310 萬美元，包括 2024 年第三季與第一季利率鎖定解除成本相關的 300 萬美元沖銷。2023 年第三季金融服務利潤 570 萬美元沒有此類沖銷。今年第三季的有效所得稅率為 21.6%，而 2023 年第三季的有效所得稅率為 22.4%。

Both periods benefited from energy tax credits on qualifying homes under the Inflation Reduction Act. Overall, lower home closing revenue and gross profit led to an 11% year-over-year decrease in the third quarter 2024 diluted EPS to $5.34 from $5.98 in 2023.

這兩個時期都受益於《通貨膨脹減少法案》下符合資格的房屋的能源稅收抵免。總體而言，房屋成交收入和毛利下降導致 2024 年第三季稀釋後每股收益從 2023 年的 5.98 美元降至 5.34 美元，年減 11%。

Looking at our year-to-date results, we are proud of what we've been able to accomplish in a volatile markets and attribute these successes to our scale and strategic focus on delivering affordable, quick move-in ready homes. On a year-over-year basis, order for the first nine months of 2024 exceeded last year by 10%, or just over 1,000 units. Closings were up 15% as our backlog conversion hit triple digits in all quarters, and our home closing revenue increased 7% to $4.7 billion.

縱觀我們今年迄今為止的業績，我們對在動蕩的市場中取得的成就感到自豪，並將這些成功歸功於我們的規模和戰略重點，即提供價格實惠、快速入住的現成房屋。與去年同期相比，2024 年前 9 個月的訂單量比去年同期增加了 10%，即略高於 1,000 台。我們的積壓訂單轉換率在所有季度都達到了三位數，成交額增長了 15%，我們的成交收入增長了 7%，達到 47 億美元。

We had an 80 bps improvement in home closing gross margin to 25.5% from improved cycle times and cost reductions, and our SG&A as a percentage of home closing revenue improved to 9.8%. All in, we exceeded our long-term targets on every metric so far this year, generating a net earnings increase of 14% to $613.5 million or $16.72 in diluted EPS.

由於週期時間縮短和成本降低，我們的房屋成交毛利率提高了 80 個基點，達到 25.5%，SG&A 佔房屋成交收入的百分比提高到 9.8%。總而言之，今年迄今為止，我們在各項指標上都超出了長期目標，淨利潤增長了 14%，達到 6.135 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 16.72 美元。

Before we move on to the balance sheet, I want to cover our Q3 2024 customers' credit metrics. As expected, our buyer profile remained relatively consistent with our historical averages, with FICO scores in the 730s; DTIs around 41, 42; and LTVs still in the mid-80s. As about 80% of our home closings in Q3 had some sort of financing incentives, that number is consistent with our mortgage company capture rate.

在我們討論資產負債表之前，我想先介紹一下 2024 年第三季客戶的信用指標。正如預期的那樣，我們的買家概況與我們的歷史平均水平保持相對一致，FICO 分數在 730 分以上； DTI 約為 41、42； LTV 仍處於 80 年代中期。由於第三季約 80% 的房屋成交有某種融資激勵措施，因此該數字與我們的抵押貸款公司捕獲率一致。

On to slide 9. Our capital allocation is focused on both organic growth and shareholder returns to enhance shareholder value. This quarter, we continued to accelerate our investment in the business by spending about $659 million on land acquisition and development, which was up 23% from prior year.

轉到投影片 9。我們的資本配置注重有機成長和股東回報，以提高股東價值。本季度，我們持續加快業務投資，在土地收購和開發方面支出約 6.59 億美元，比上年增長 23%。

On a year-to-date basis, our land spend has totaled $1.7 billion. We are on track for full year 2024 land spend of $2 billion to $2.5 billion and continue to expect our go-forward annual spend to be similar.

今年迄今為止，我們的土地支出總計 17 億美元。我們預計 2024 年全年土地支出將達到 20 億至 25 億美元，並繼續預期未來的年度支出將與此類似。

As we nearly tripled our quarterly cash dividend on a year-over-year basis to $0.75 per share in 2024 from $0.27 per share in 2023, our cash dividend totaled $27.1 million in the third quarter of this year and $81.6 million on a year-to-date basis.

由於我們將季度現金股息年增近兩倍，從2023 年的每股0.27 美元增至2024 年的每股0.75 美元，今年第三季度我們的現金股息總計為2,710 萬美元，去年同期為8,160 萬美元。

We repurchased $30 million of shares in Q3 to catch up on our systematic plan of $15 million per quarter. To date in 2024, we have spent $85.9 million on share buybacks, repurchasing 1.4% of our shares outstanding at December 31, 2024. $99.1 million remained available under our authorization program at quarter end.

我們在第三季回購了 3000 萬美元的股票，以趕上我們每季 1500 萬美元的系統計劃。2024 年迄今，我們已花費 8,590 萬美元用於股票回購，回購了截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日已發行股票的 1.4%。

Turning to slide 10. Even though the land market has been constrained as public and private builders alike are growing their land portfolio, we were able to secure and put nearly 7,800 net new lots under control this quarter, representing an estimated 48 future communities.

轉到投影片 10。儘管由於公共和私人建築商都在增加土地投資組合，土地市場受到限制，但本季度我們仍能夠獲得併控制近 7,800 個淨新地塊，預計將有 48 個未來社區。

In the third quarter of 2023, we put approximately 5,000 net new lots under control. We continue to find land in our geographies. And although the competition is tight, we are still able to make deals pencil with our underwriting standards, assuming today's ASPs and costs. As Phillippe mentioned earlier, since our Elliott Homes transaction closed in October, both incremental lots are not yet reflected in our numbers.

2023年第三季度，我們控制了約5,000個淨新地塊。我們繼續在我們的地區尋找土地。儘管競爭很激烈，但假設當今的平均售價和成本，我們仍然能夠按照我們的核保標準進行交易。正如菲利普之前提到的，自從我們的 Elliott Homes 交易於 10 月結束以來，這兩個增量地塊尚未反映在我們的數據中。

As of September 30, 2024, we under-controlled a total of about 74,800 lots, equating to a 4.8 year supply, in line with our target of four to five years. We also had nearly 41,600 lots that were still undergoing diligence at the end of the third quarter.

截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們總共控制了約 74,800 手，相當於 4.8 年的供應量，符合我們四到五年的目標。截至第三季末，我們還有近 41,600 塊地塊仍在進行盡職調查。

While our cash position remains high, we are actively sourcing off-balance sheet land financing to allow us to accelerate growth in our land portfolio without overtaxing our balance sheet. We continue to view off-balance sheet financing as a vehicle for incremental growth as we work towards our 20,000 unit milestone.

雖然我們的現金狀況仍然很高，但我們正在積極尋求表外土地融資，以使我們能夠加速土地投資組合的成長，而不會給我們的資產負債表帶來過重的負擔。在我們努力實現 20,000 台里程碑的同時，我們繼續將表外融資視為增量成長的工具。

To help offset the gross margin headwind from off-book land, these supplemental communities will deliver additional closings which will generate improved leverage of fixed costs in both gross margin and SG&A. About 64% of our total lot inventory at September 30, 2024, was owned, and 36% was optioned compared to prior year, where we had a 74% owned inventory and a 26% option lot position. We owned 66% and optioned 34% of our lots at June 30, 2024.

為了幫助抵銷帳外土地的毛利率不利因素，這些補充社區將提供額外的交割，這將提高毛利率和銷售、管理費用方面固定成本的槓桿。截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們的總庫存中約 64% 為自有庫存，36% 為期權，而去年我們擁有 74% 的自有庫存和 26% 的期權倉位。截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日，我們擁有 66% 的股權並選擇了 34% 的股權。

Before we share our guidance, we would like to take a moment and describe our guidance methodology. Historically, we have had visibility in our backlog to several quarters of closings, so our revenue, margin, and to a greater extent, EPS, were all fairly known.

在分享我們的指導之前，我們想花點時間描述我們的指導方法。從歷史上看，我們可以清楚地看到幾個季度的結帳積壓，因此我們的收入、利潤率以及更大程度上的每股收益都是眾所周知的。

With our strategic shift, our backlog at any quarter end doesn't reflect even a full quarter's closing. Coupled with our accelerated production time lines and volatility in the interest rate markets that results in high variability and offered financing incentives, our ability to model margins in EPS on homes that are not yet sold is somewhat limited beyond the current quarter.

隨著我們的策略轉變，我們在任何季度末的積壓訂單甚至不能反映整個季度的結束情況。再加上我們加快的生產時間線和利率市場的波動導致了高度的波動性並提供了融資激勵，我們對尚未出售的房屋的每股收益進行利潤率建模的能力在本季度之後受到了一定的限制。

While we do believe that our strategy of focusing on pace over price will result in our ability to control the volume of desired sales and closings, the mix and profitability associated with such homes is a fairly wide range. Therefore, starting this quarter, we will continue to provide our regular guidance for the subsequent quarter, including ranges for closing units, revenue, margin, EPS, and tax rates, where we will guide to full year closing units and home closing revenue only to avoid continued revisions that may cause uncertainties around our financial performance.

雖然我們確實相信，我們關注速度而非價格的策略將使我們有能力控制所需的銷售量和成交量，但與此類房屋相關的組合和盈利能力範圍相當廣泛。因此，從本季度開始，我們將繼續提供下一季度的常規指導，包括成交單位、收入、利潤率、每股收益和稅率的範圍，其中我們將僅指導全年成交單位和家庭成交收入避免可能為我們的財務表現帶來不確定性的持續修訂。

And with that, I'll direct you to slide 11 for our guidance. As a reminder, under the new strategy, our stronger backlog conversion means that closings are converting to sales in real time, which shifts our quarterly peak closing volume away from Q4.

接下來，我將引導您查看投影片 11 以獲取指導。提醒一下，在新策略下，我們更強的積壓轉換意味著結單正在即時轉換為銷售，這使得我們的季度結單量高峰遠離了第四季。

In light of today's market conditions, we're projecting the following for Q4 2024: total closings between 3,750 and 3,950 units, home closing revenue of $1.5 billion to $1.59 billion, home closing gross margin of 22.5% to 23.5% and effective tax rate of about 22.5% and diluted EPS in the range of $4.10 to $4.60.

根據當今的市場狀況，我們對2024 年第四季的預測如下：房屋成交總量在3,750 至3,950 套之間，房屋成交收入為15 億至15.9 億美元，房屋成交毛利率為22.5% 至23.5% ，有效稅率為約 22.5%，稀釋後每股收益在 4.10 美元至 4.60 美元之間。

For full year 2025, we're anticipating closings of 16,500 to 17,500 units and $6.7 billion to $7.1 billion in home closing revenue, both of which include the Elliott Homes acquisition. This implies a double-digit year-over-year growth at the midpoint of our Q4 2024 and full year 2025 guidance. With that, I'll turn it back over to Phillippe.

2025 年全年，我們預計房屋成交量將達到 16,500 至 17,500 套，房屋成交收入將達到 67 億至 71 億美元，其中均包括對 Elliott Homes 的收購。這意味著我們 2024 年第四季和 2025 年全年指導的中點將實現兩位數的同比增長。這樣，我會把它轉回給菲利普。

Thank you, Hilla. To summarize on slide 12, our solid third quarter '24 financial performance demonstrated that our strategic evolution resulting in quick turning, move-in ready homes, drove strength in our absorption pace, and helps us maintain elevated home closing gross margins.

謝謝你，希拉。總結投影片12，我們24 年第三季穩健的財務業績表明，我們的策略演變導致了快速週轉、可入住的現成房屋，推動了我們吸收步伐的強勁，並幫助我們維持了較高的房屋結算毛利率。

Although the mortgage rate market remains choppy, short term, we believe that the expectation of lower rates over the next several quarters and the ongoing combination of favorable demographics and an undersupply of homes will be constructive for homebuyer demand and will enable us to keep growing our market share. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for instructions on the Q&A. Operator?

Although the mortgage rate market remains choppy, short term, we believe that the expectation of lower rates over the next several quarters and the ongoing combination of favorable demographics and an undersupply of homes will be constructive for homebuyer demand and will enable us to keep growing our市場占有率.現在，我將把電話轉給接線員，以獲取有關問答的說明。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）Stephen Kim，Evercore ISI。

Yes. Appreciate all the color. Yes, a lot of questions here, but I'll just basically start with the production side of the equation. I mean, things have really changed over the last year or so. I remember a time when you were hesitant to think you could do a backlog turn greater than 80%. Now, it looks like you're guiding at the high end to maybe even double that into -- in your fourth quarter.

是的。欣賞所有的顏色。是的，這裡有很多問題，但我基本上將從等式的生產方面開始。我的意思是，在過去一年左右的時間裡，情況確實發生了變化。我記得有一次，您對於是否可以將積壓訂單週轉率提高到 80% 以上猶豫不決。現在，看起來你正在高端指導，甚至可能在第四季度將其翻倍。

So I wanted to talk to you a little bit about what your long-term targets are for backlog turns, number of specs per community. I think you shared that your target -- your historical cycle time was 120 days. I wanted to know whether you're anticipating that, that could go lower? So just basically to understand how you're thinking about what the modeling would look like for backlog turns and your spec levels and how you're going to run your business going forward?

因此，我想與您談談您的長期目標是積壓訂單數量、每個社區的規格數量。我認為您分享了您的目標——您的歷史週期時間是 120 天。我想知道你是否預期這個數字會更低？那麼，只是簡單地了解您如何考慮積壓訂單週轉和您的規格等級的建模以及您將如何繼續經營您的業務？

Yeah. Thanks, Stephen. Appreciate the questions. I would say that the earlier long-term targets we took out recently this year, we targeted sort of 125% backlog conversion. But obviously, we also indicated team that we were going to study our business during that time, specifically under the shift to holding homes later in the sales process to do a 60-day move-in guarantee for our customers.

是的。謝謝，史蒂芬。感謝您提出的問題。我想說的是，我們今年最近制定的長期目標是 125% 的積壓訂單轉換率。但顯然，我們也向團隊表明，我們將在那段時間研究我們的業務，特別是在銷售過程後期向持有房屋的轉變，為我們的客戶提供 60 天的入住保證。

With that change, we have been operating closer to 145% over the last few quarters. So we're still evaluating this. But I think where we are is probably where we're going to end up. So we're targeting something north of 125% at this point. Obviously, that can be impacted by cycle times.

經過這項變化，我們在過去幾季的營運率接近 145%。所以我們仍在評估這一點。但我認為我們所處的位置可能就是我們最終的結局。因此，我們目前的目標是 125% 以上。顯然，這可能會受到週期時間的影響。

Our cycle times are almost where we would like to be, where we're turning assets 3 times a year. We're about -- we're at about 125 days. We think we can get that down a little bit more, which will be helpful and help us get us to that 145% backlog conversion number. And then finally, the number of specs per community.

我們的周期時間幾乎達到了我們想要的水平，我們每年資產週轉 3 次。我們大約還有 125 天。我們認為我們可以再降低一點，這將很有幫助，並幫助我們實現 145% 的積壓轉換率。最後，每個社區的規格數量。

Again, we feel like we're pretty much there. We want four to six months of spec inventory considering we're converting the 145% of our backlog. So we should be converting one-third of those intra quarter every single time in restarting those. So we always like to have one-third of our specs move in ready, one-third of our specs right behind that, and then have one-third of our specs right behind that. I think we're pretty much there.

再一次，我們感覺我們已經差不多了。考慮到我們正在轉換 145% 的積壓訂單，我們需要四到六個月的規格庫存。因此，我們每次重新啟動時都應該在季度內轉換其中的三分之一。因此，我們總是希望先準備好三分之一的規格，然後再準備三分之一的規格，然後再準備三分之一的規格。我想我們已經差不多了。

If our cycle times can continue to improve and stabilize, we obviously can carry less specs because the cycle times allows us to do so. But I would say this quarter is pretty much within the range of where we're going to be as we think about our long-term targets on a go-forward basis.

如果我們的週期時間可以繼續改善和穩定，我們顯然可以攜帶更少的規格，因為週期時間允許我們這樣做。但我想說，當我們考慮未來的長期目標時，本季幾乎在我們預期的範圍內。

Okay. What do you mean this quarter, Phillippe, you mean 3Q or you mean 4Q?

好的。Phillippe，這個季度你指的是第三季還是第四季？

Q3. As you look at our Q4 guidance, we're guiding to something relatively similar.

Q3。當您查看我們的第四季度指導時，我們正在指導一些相對相似的內容。

Except for your backlog? Terms can be a lot higher, but I heard you on the 145%, kind of on an annualized kind of run rate. So that's great.

除了你的積壓？條款可能要高得多，但我聽說你說的是 145%，有點像年化運行率。那太好了。

Okay. Second question, I mean, I know there's going to be a lot of questions about the market conditions and all that. I'll let others ask those, and I'll be listening to that eagerly as well. But I wanted to ask you about the acquisition of Elliott and in particular, your approach to land.

好的。第二個問題，我的意思是，我知道會有很多關於市場狀況等問題。我會讓其他人問這些，我也會熱切地傾聽。但我想問您有關收購 Elliott 的情況，特別是您對土地的態度。

So the first thing, Hilla, could you provide us some more like necessary color we need for modeling around Elliott? Give us a sense for the closings, the backlog you may have acquired, purchase accounting, things of that nature?

那麼，第一件事，希拉，你能為我們提供一些更多的東西，例如我們圍繞埃利奧特建模所需的顏色嗎？讓我們來了解結帳情況、您可能獲得的積壓訂單、採購會計等類似性質的事情？

And then to round out kind of the land, I think you had hinted in the past about maybe working on some kind of a different land structure or something like that. But I was curious if you had any update there or if your thinking had evolved there?

然後為了完善土地，我想你過去曾暗示過可能會研究某種不同的土地結構或類似的東西。但我很好奇你是否有任何更新或你的想法是否在那裡發生了變化？

Got it. Thank you, Stephen. So just a little bit of color on Elliott. We did not acquire any WIP. So we will have no purchase price adjustments for the material write-down that you have in WIP.

知道了。謝謝你，史蒂芬。所以，對艾略特來說，只是一點點色彩。我們沒有獲得任何 WIP。因此，我們不會對您在製品中的材料減記進行採購價格調整。

We are going to be starting units in Q4. I know we're in Q4, so we're going to be starting units shortly. We expect to benefit from those closings towards the end of Q1. So you will start to see the performance of the assets that we acquired, it will all be newly started assets and no acquired WIP.

我們將在第四季啟動單位。我知道我們正處於第四季度，所以我們很快就會啟動單位。我們預計將從第一季末的這些交割中受益。因此，您將開始看到我們收購的資產的表現，這些資產都是新啟動的資產，沒有收購的 WIP。

All in the margins on the acquired assets should be coming in at or north of our current margin. We were able to strike a win-win deal with the Elliott team, and the net impact is going to be margin accretive, not dilutive, which is a little bit unusual for land transactions.

所收購資產的所有利潤率應等於或高於我們目前的利潤率。我們能夠與埃利奧特團隊達成雙贏的協議，其淨影響將是利潤增值，而不是稀釋，這對於土地交易來說有點不尋常。

And you should start to see -- again, we look to carry a four- to five-year supply of lots. There's maybe a little bit of a longer tail here. So I wouldn't take the 5,500 lots and divide it by five and say that's the annual run rate. But it's going to be something a little bit south of that but not materially south of that. So that's our long-term trend for the Gulf Coast -- the new Gulf Coast division.

你應該開始看到——我們再次希望擁有四到五年的批次供應。這裡的尾巴可能有點長。因此，我不會將 5,500 塊地塊除以 5，然後說這是年運行率。但這將是稍微偏南一點，但實質上不會偏南。這就是我們墨西哥灣沿岸的長期趨勢——新的墨西哥灣沿岸部門。

As far as our off-balance sheet land, we keep promising that we'll discuss it. It's something that's going to be finalized here internally in the next two to three days. So you should be hearing from us about the off-balance sheet structure, something fairly material we will be disclosing on our January earnings call.

至於我們的表外土地，我們一直承諾我們會討論它。這將在接下來的兩到三天內在內部敲定。因此，您應該會聽到我們關於表外結構的消息，我們將在 1 月的財報電話會議上揭露一些相當重要的內容。

But it's going to be finalized in the next few days? So meaning it won't go into effect until 1Q? Or will it actually go into effect in 4Q, we just won't know about it until January?

不過這幾天就要敲定了？這意味著它要到第一季才會生效嗎？或者它實際上會在第四季度生效，只是我們要到一月份才能知道？

Yes, it will go into effect in 4Q. It will be part of our 4Q numbers. It's going to be an incremental growth. So it's not something that's going to happen on day 1. So the start of the relationship will begin in Q4. You will see evidence of it in our Q4 numbers, and then it will grow beyond that.

是的，它將在第四季生效。它將成為我們第四季數據的一部分。這將是一個漸進式的成長。所以這不會是第一天就會發生的事。因此，這種關係將從第四季開始。您將在我們第四季度的數據中看到這一點的證據，然後它的成長將超出此範圍。

Got you. Okay. Great. Well, looking forward to hearing more about that and thanks very much for all the color guys.

明白你了。好的。偉大的。好吧，期待聽到更多相關信息，並非常感謝所有有色人種。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，Zelman & Associates。

Thanks for all the detail and a nice job in the quarter. First question on gross margin. You guys have been pretty transparent about your expectation for margins to kind of normalize closer to 22.5% to 23.5%. And it looks like based on your 4Q guide that you expect to get within that range this upcoming quarter.

感謝您提供的所有細節以及本季度的出色工作。第一個問題是關於毛利率。你們對利潤率正常化到接近 22.5% 至 23.5% 的預期非常透明。根據您的第四季指南，您預計下一季將達到該範圍。

At the same time, I know there's a lot of moving pieces on a quarterly basis. I know there's some fixed costs associated with your COGS. I know incentives obviously play a pretty big part of that as well. So I'm just curious if you can kind of parse through the guide for roughly 200 basis points of sequential pressure on margin?

同時，我知道每個季度都會有很多變化。我知道您的銷貨成本有一些固定成本。我知道激勵措施顯然也發揮了很大的作用。所以我很好奇您是否可以透過該指南解析大約 200 個基點的保證金連續壓力？

How much of that is higher incentive levels? How much of that is mix? And should we anticipate if incentives remain elevated, is there a possibility, at least in the near term, you might dip a little bit below that normalized range?

其中有多少是更高的激勵水平？其中有多少是混合的？我們是否應該預期，如果激勵措施仍然較高，至少在短期內，是否有可能會稍微低於正常範圍？

So thanks for the question, Alan. I think when we guided a couple of quarters ago to what we thought the long-term range was going to be, I don't think we anticipated quite the level of heavy incentives that we're seeing right now. I think the incentive volume, as you've heard from several of our peers that have also released results already, it's been a little bit heavier than expected. Interest rates did the opposite of what people expected after the Fed announcement.

謝謝你的提問，艾倫。我認為，當我們在幾個季度前製定我們認為的長期範圍時，我認為我們並沒有預料到我們現在所看到的大規模激勵措施的水平。我認為，正如您從我們的幾位同行那裡聽到的那樣，他們也已經發布了結果，激勵量比預期的要重一些。利率的表現與聯準會聲明後人們的預期相反。

So our numbers for Q4 reflect a higher expectation for incentives even in what we're seeing, even in what we saw in our Q3 results, which is the lion's share of the pullback. The material decline from the current quarter to the next quarter is all anticipated increased utilization of incentives.

因此，我們第四季的數據反映了對激勵措施的更高期望，即使是我們所看到的情況，甚至是我們在第三季結果中看到的情況，這是回調的最大部分。從本季到下一季的大幅下降都是預期激勵措施利用率的增加。

I think we're all waiting with bated breath to see when the rates will come down, and there will be a positive impact. So I don't know that we're forecasting another further pullback in incentives. I think, as we head into the spring selling season, hopefully, the tides will turn and head in the other direction. So our long-term margin, I don't think is at risk of coming in lower.

我認為我們都在屏息以待，看看利率何時會下降，並且會產生正面的影響。所以我不知道我們是否預測激勵措施會再次進一步縮減。我認為，當我們進入春季銷售季節時，希望潮流會轉向另一個方向。因此，我認為我們的長期利潤率不會有下降的風險。

I'm not sure we're anticipating currently for quarters to fall in below that. But again, we'll be actively monitoring the interest rate markets and adjusting accordingly. I think we've said this several times (technical difficulty) what's happening in the market today is just manifesting itself in our financial statements quicker than some of our peers because of our quick backlog conversion.

我不確定我們目前預計幾季會低於該水平。但我們將再次積極監控利率市場並進行相應調整。我想我們已經說過好幾次了（技術難度），今天市場上發生的事情只是因為我們快速的積壓轉換而比一些同行更快地在我們的財務報表中體現出來。

So while we've been alluding to and seeing in our sales volume that's coming through our P&L, I think our peers are seeing it a couple of quarters later, but it's a general industry trend.

因此，雖然我們一直在透過損益表暗示並看到我們的銷量，但我認為我們的同行在幾個季度後就會看到這一點，但這是該行業的總體趨勢。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

Hi, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Wanted to delve in, I think you kind of already alluded to this, Hilla, but around the cadence of incentives throughout the quarter. It sounds like it ended at a high note and that's what you're further projecting into the fourth quarter. I was hoping if you could just remind us where incentives are as a percent of sales price and how that compares to normal levels, let's say, pre-COVID?

你好，謝謝。大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。想深入研究，我想你已經提到過這一點，希拉，但圍繞著整個季度的激勵節奏。聽起來它以高調結束，這就是您對第四季度的進一步預測。我希望您能提醒我們，激勵措施佔銷售價格的百分比，以及與正常水平（比如說，新冠疫情之前）相比如何？

Yeah. They're definitely running north of pre-COVID. Pre-COVID, it was anywhere between 3% and 6%, depending on the nature of the market. Right now, they're running a couple of hundred bps above that. So there's definitely increased incentives today from a normal market, which is why we're comfortable that on a long-term basis our gross margin targets are so correct because we do expect a pullback in the utilization of financing incentives long term.

是的。他們肯定是在新冠疫情之前向北跑。在新冠疫情之前，這一比例在 3% 到 6% 之間，具體取決於市場的性質。目前，它們的運行速度比該值高出數百個基點。因此，今天正常市場的激勵措施肯定會增加，這就是為什麼我們對長期毛利率目標如此正確感到放心，因為我們確實預計長期融資激勵措施的使用會有所回落。

We're not modeling that right now. The current dynamics in the interest rate environment don't allow us to model that, although we're hopeful that will happen sometime in '25. So the guidance that you're seeing from us is at the current exit interest rate utilization, not even so much as of September 30, but currently, right?

我們現在還沒有對此進行建模。當前利率環境的動態不允許我們對此進行建模，儘管我們希望這會在 25 年的某個時候發生。因此，您從我們這裡看到的指導是當前的退出利率利用率，甚至不是 9 月 30 日的那麼多，但目前，對嗎？

We're at the end of October, and we have a whole month's worth of sales, a lot of which will close in this quarter. So we have fairly good visibility as to what the current interest rate environments are requiring us to offer.

現在是十月底，我們有整整一個月的銷售額，其中許多將在本季結束。因此，我們對目前的利率環境要求我們提供什麼有相當好的了解。

Okay. That's helpful. I guess, secondly, I would love to get your thoughts around, from a market perspective and certainly, as it relates to you guys as a company as well. Just the availability of finished lots came up yesterday on a competitor call that perhaps on some levels across markets, supply challenges are becoming a little more pronounced.

好的。這很有幫助。我想，其次，我很想從市場角度了解你們的想法，當然，因為這也與你們公司有關。昨天，競爭對手電話中提到了成品批次的供應情況，也許在整個市場的某些層面上，供應挑戰變得更加明顯。

Obviously, you just did the deal with Elliott, and that gives you the access to a good amount of lots in a new area. But bigger picture, how would you characterize given --- particularly given the emergence of maybe some additional land banking venues and partners. How do you characterize the availability of finished lots in this -- across your footprint? Has it gone up or down over the last couple of years? I'll stop there.

顯然，您剛剛與埃利奧特達成了交易，這使您能夠獲得新區域的大量地塊。但從更大的角度來看，你會如何描述——特別是考慮到可能出現一些額外的土地儲備場所和合作夥伴。您如何描述您的足跡中成品批次的可用性？過去幾年它是上漲還是下跌？我就到此為止。

Thank you for the question. Yes, I mean, it's gone down over the last decade. So we haven't seen finished lots for 10 years. We self-develop almost 90% of everything we do. The 10% of what we get that's finished is usually opportunistic in some way, and we've been doing that for some time.

謝謝你的提問。是的，我的意思是，在過去十年裡它有所下降。所以我們已經有10年沒有看到完工的土地了。我們所做的一切幾乎 90% 都是我們自行開發的。我們所完成的 10% 通常在某種程度上是機會主義的，而我們這樣做已經有一段時間了。

And we certainly don't see in the pattern not changing anytime soon. If not, it's only increasing. I think the finished lots that are available in the market are often heavily bid on, and you often have to pay a price that really doesn't hurdle because if a developer goes out there and puts the lots on the ground, they're expecting retail plus, plus, plus. So I would say the availability of finished lots is few and far between, except within M&A.

我們當然認為這種模式不會很快改變。如果沒有，它只會增加。我認為市場上現有的成品地塊經常出價很高，而且你通常必須支付一個實際上不存在障礙的價格，因為如果開發商走出去並將地塊放在地上，他們會期望零售加，加，加。所以我想說，除了併購之外，可用的成品數量很少。

Obviously, a lot of M&A is happening out there on private builders because they actually have finished lot inventory that you can get on today. Elliott Home certainly has some of those that's available to us. So I would characterize the availability of finished lots as scarce, beyond scarce. And I don't see that changing anytime soon.

顯然，私人建築商正在進行大量併購，因為他們實際上已經完成了您今天可以獲得的大量庫存。Elliott Home 當然有一些可供我們使用的東西。因此，我將成品的可用性描述為稀缺，甚至是稀缺。我認為這種情況不會很快改變。

Just to clarify, that's always been our expectation, right? Our four- to five-year supply of lots assumes it's going to take us a year to two for development. And then three-ish years to sell through the community. So I don't know that it's any different for us than what we've been modeling as Phillippe said for the last decade.

只是澄清一下，這一直是我們的期望，對嗎？我們四到五年的地塊供應假設我們需要一到兩年的時間來開發。然後用三年左右的時間透過社區進行銷售。所以我不知道這對我們來說與過去十年菲利普所說的我們所建模的有什麼不同。

One last quick one, if I could squeeze it in. Hilla, you mentioned that Elliott, you take the 5,500 divided by 5, maybe it's a little south of that. But let's say that, that's closer to like 1,000 lots or closings rather that could add to your '25 number. That's a 7% growth roughly off of your '24. And I think even before that, we were kind of looking for 10% type volume growth.

最後快一點，如果我能把它塞進去的話。Hilla，你提到 Elliott，你用 5,500 除以 5，也許有點偏南。但我們可以這麼說，這接近 1,000 手或成交量，而不是可以增加您的 '25 數字。與 24 歲時相比，大約增長了 7%。我認為即使在此之前，我們就在尋求 10% 的銷售成長。

So should we just be adding that to the normal 10%? I mean, is it out of bounds to think that you could be doing a 15%-plus closings growth next year?

那麼我們是否應該將其添加到正常的 10% 中？我的意思是，你認為明年的成交額成長可能超過 15%，這是否超出了界限？

Yeah. I'm not sure that we're guiding to 15% closing growth. We gave our guidance that includes the Elliott numbers. That 5,500 lot is a long-term run rate. So I'm not intimating that we're going to be in the 1,000-unit range in year one.

是的。我不確定我們的目標是 15% 的最終成長。我們給出了包括艾略特數字在內的指導。這 5,500 手是長期運行率。所以我並不是說我們第一年的銷售量就會達到 1,000 台。

The number that we have are inclusive of the Elliott transaction, their component of that is not four digits. So I think that the growth that you're seeing is primarily organic at that midpoint. That 17,000 units is primarily organic.

我們掌握的數字包括埃利奧特交易在內，其組成部分不是四位數。所以我認為你所看到的成長主要是在這個中點的有機成長。這 17,000 個單位主要是有機單位。

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

好的，太好了。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Wanted to follow up on the 4Q margin guide. If we look back over the past several years, you've consistently outperformed the top end of your margin guidance range. I think that was true in 3Q as well.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。希望跟進第四季的保證金指南。如果我們回顧過去幾年，您的業績一直高於利潤指導範圍的上限。我認為第三季也是如此。

And then as you alluded to, 4Q assumes a notable step down here sequentially, can you talk about the degree of conservatism that's built into that guide? And then what would you need to see happen for the bottom end of your guidance range to come into play?

然後，正如您所提到的，4Q 假設在此順序中顯著下降，您能談談該指南中內建的保守主義程度嗎？然後，您需要看到發生什麼情況才能使指導範圍的下限發揮作用？

Yes. So I think as you look at the past eight quarters where you have identified that we've outperformed, a lot of that was predicated on the fact that our business was shifting dramatically. We're going from 1MU to entry-level builder and then from entry level to all spec and from all specs to move-in ready. And so we just didn't have complete visibility and confidence in all the transition that was happening and how quickly it was happening. So we are guiding conservatively based on that.

是的。因此，我認為，當您回顧過去八個季度時，您會發現我們的表現出色，這在很大程度上是基於我們的業務正在發生巨大變化的事實。我們將從 1MU 發展到入門級建築商，然後從入門級發展到所有規格，再從所有規格發展到準備入住。因此，我們對正在發生的所有轉變及其發生的速度沒有完全的可見性和信心。因此，我們在此基礎上進行保守指導。

Now as you look at the last quarter in our guidance, we indicated to everybody that our margins were going to be down. And we slightly outperformed, but a lot of that just came in the form of a higher backlog conversion and a little bit less of utilization of rate locks.

現在，當您查看我們的指導中的最後一個季度時，我們向所有人表明我們的利潤率將會下降。我們的表現略勝一籌，但其中很大一部分只是以更高的積壓轉換和更少的利率鎖定利用率的形式出現。

So I think we're getting much tighter. And I would say, as we sit here in October, we don't think there's a lot of conservatism in our 4Q guide. That being said, I think rates would have to go higher than they currently are for us to perform below that midpoint, which I currently don't feel like they're doing.

所以我認為我們的關係越來越緊密。我想說的是，當我們十月坐在這裡時，我們認為我們的第四季指南中並沒有太多保守主義。話雖這麼說，我認為利率必須高於目前的水平才能讓我們的表現低於中點，但我目前不認為他們正在這樣做。

We have another maybe two or three weeks of sales that will close in Q4. And as we look out and see what sales we're procuring today, we don't see our financing costs going up. So I feel confident in our midpoint for 4Q.

我們可能還有兩到三週的銷售，將在第四季結束。當我們觀察到今天的銷售情況時，我們並沒有看到融資成本上升。因此，我對第四季的中點充滿信心。

Okay. Got you. Makes sense. And then my second question is somewhat related to that elasticity to rate movements. Can you talk about, in the third quarter, how demand responded when you did see rates decline pretty quickly in the second half of that quarter?

好的。明白你了。有道理。我的第二個問題與利率變動的彈性有一定關係。您能否談談，在第三季度，當您確實看到該季度下半年利率迅速下降時，需求有何反應？

And then others have talked about non-rate impacts to current demand conditions, things like the election. What is your expectation for demand in the spring if we don't get a move lower in rates, they could stay pretty consistent to where they're at, but we have some of the other noise such as the election behind us?

然後其他人談到了對當前需求狀況的非利率影響，例如選舉。如果我們不降低利率，您對春季的需求有何預期？

Yes. Thanks again, Trevor. So much like we said in the previous guidance, we felt like the back half of this year was going to be a more difficult sales environment because of the election because what rates we're going to potentially give. Because for the first time in many years, we experienced true seasonality.

是的。再次感謝，特雷弗。就像我們在之前的指導中所說的那樣，我們覺得由於選舉，今年下半年的銷售環境將變得更加困難，因為我們可能會給出什麼利率。因為多年來我們第一次經歷了真正的季節性。

And all of that has materialized. I think the only thing that has become more material has just been what rates have done after the Fed cut. The sales environment is extremely elastic to rates. If you look at our third quarter orders, September was our best month in a meaningful way because rates came down after the rate cut, and we saw increased demand environment. As rates have elevated through October, we've seen the demand moderate from September. So it is very, very, very elastic.

而這一切都已成為現實。我認為唯一變得更重要的是聯準會降息後利率的變動。銷售環境對價格極具彈性。如果你看我們第三季的訂單，你會發現 9 月是我們最好的一個月，因為降息後利率下降了，而且我們看到了需求環境的增加。由於 10 月利率一直在上升，我們發現需求從 9 月開始放緩。所以它非常非常有彈性。

That being said, we're guiding to 17,000 units next year, which is significant growth over where we currently sit. We're assuming 4-point net sales per month to do there based on our community count growth. So we're extremely confident about the demand environment. We think there are a lot of folks out there that want to buy a home. What we lack confidence in is just exactly what the cost of that demand is going to be in the form of financing and incentives.

話雖如此，我們明年的目標是 17,000 套，這比我們目前的水平有顯著增長。根據社區數量的成長，我們假設每月淨銷售額成長 4 點。所以我們對需求環境非常有信心。我們認為有很多人想要買房。我們缺乏信心的正是這種需求的成本將以融資和激勵的形式反映出來。

Yeah, makes sense. Appreciate all the color and good luck moving forward.

是的，有道理。欣賞所有的顏色並祝你好運。

John Lovallo, UBS.

約翰‧洛瓦洛，瑞銀集團。

Hi, good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my questions as well. The first one is just -- Phillippe, just to follow up on one of the last comments you made. I thought earlier in the presentation, you guys may have indicated that October was similar to September from an order standpoint.

嗨，早上好，夥計們。也感謝您回答我的問題。第一個是——菲利普，只是為了跟進你最後發表的評論之一。我想在演示的早些時候，你們可能已經指出，從訂單的角度來看，十月與九月相似。

September seemed like it was pretty good. So I mean, is the order pace relatively consistent just at a higher incentive level? Or what's kind of the right way to think about the pace that you're seeing so far in September?

九月似乎還不錯。所以我的意思是，在較高的激勵水平下，訂單速度是否相對一致？或者，對於 9 月迄今所看到的速度，正確的思考方式是什麼？

Yeah, you're thinking about it the right way, which is why we're guiding to our fourth quarter margins. The demand is there. We feel very confident that we're able to go secure the pace, and we are a pace-driven business.

是的，您的思考方式是正確的，這就是我們指導第四季度利潤率的原因。需求就在那裡。我們非常有信心能夠保持節奏，而且我們是一家節奏驅動的企業。

So we feel confident we can go get our four month or so at the margins that we guided to because we have the financing incentives to go get there. So the demand environment remains extremely constructive.

因此，我們有信心能夠按照我們指導的利潤率實現四個月左右的目標，因為我們有融資激勵措施可以實現這一目標。因此，需求環境仍極具建設性。

It's the financing and incentive environment that is continuing to be volatile and just the cost and the expectation of consumers as it relates to incentives and financing to procure the sale.

融資和激勵環境持續波動，消費者的成本和期望也與促進銷售的激勵和融資有關。

Makes sense. And then I think you answered this, but I just want to make sure that I'm understanding it correctly. You guys maintain the sort of the long-term trend margin outlook. And so does that imply that if rates, in fact, do come down and who knows if they do and when they do, but that you would take the foot off the gas on the incentives and capture more margins? Is that the right way to think about that?

有道理。然後我想你回答了這個問題，但我只是想確保我理解正確。你們維持長期趨勢邊際前景。那麼，這是否意味著，如果利率確實下降了，誰知道會不會下降以及何時下降，但你會放鬆激勵措施並獲得更多利潤？這是正確的思考方式嗎？

100%, as long as we're getting our pace, right? And so there's a lot of things that move around in margins. It's not just financing, especially as you start to look out in future quarters. We have newer vintage land coming on, et cetera.

100%，只要我們跟上節奏，對吧？因此，有很多東西會在邊緣發生變化。這不僅僅是融資，尤其是當你開始關注未來幾季時。我們有新的復古土地即將推出，等等。

So our long-term targets are based on our long-term underwriting, the efficiencies that we've been able to create in our new operating model, our backlog conversion, our leverage, et cetera. But what can obviously move the needle positively or negatively on that is the incentive environment. It's not just solving the payment for the customer, but also what our competitors are doing in the environment.

因此，我們的長期目標是基於我們的長期核保、我們在新營運模式中創造的效率、我們的積壓訂單轉換、我們的槓桿率等等。但顯然能夠對此產生正面或負面影響的是激勵環境。它不僅僅是解決客戶的支付問題，還解決我們的競爭對手在環境中所做的事情。

So if rates go down, that would, I think, provide potentially a tailwind for margins. If rates stay high and even go higher, that could potentially present a headwind. Now, there are a lot of other things we can do to preserve margin in that environment.

因此，我認為，如果利率下降，這可能會為利潤率帶來潛在的推動力。如果利率維持在高位甚至更高，可能會帶來阻力。現在，我們可以採取許多其他措施來維持這種環境下的利潤。

We can navigate our cost structure a little bit differently. We can do things with pricing, et cetera. So I don't want to say that we're completely vulnerable to this. But yes, rates -- lower rates provide a tailwind, higher rates provide a headwind.

我們可以稍微不同地調整我們的成本結構。我們可以在定價等方面做一些事情。所以我不想說我們完全容易受到這種影響。但是，是的，利率——較低的利率帶來順風，較高的利率帶來逆風。

Yes. Phillippe mentioned it correctly, I don't think that we're guiding to -- I don't think it was remodeling once we have a couple more Fed announcements of rate cuts that the margins are going to increase. That's also going to increase the availability of resale inventory, which will impact a bit, ability to push pricing.

是的。菲利普提到的是正確的，我不認為我們正在引導——一旦我們有更多聯準會宣布降息，幅度將會增加，我不認為它正在重塑。這也將增加轉售庫存的可用性，這將對推動定價的能力產生一些影響。

So there's forces in both directions. I think we're fairly comfortable with our long-term margin guidance at this time. It doesn't mean that we're not going to be a little bit above, a little bit below. All around that based on what's happening quarter-to-quarter, but I think we're comfortable long term with that market -- with that margin range.

所以有兩個方向的力量。我認為我們目前對長期利潤指引相當滿意。這並不意味著我們不會高於或低於一點。所有這一切都基於每季發生的情況，但我認為我們對這個市場的長期發展感到滿意——在這個利潤範圍內。

Yeah, understood. Thank you guys.

是的，明白了。謝謝你們。

Carl Reichardt, BTIG.

卡爾雷查特 (Carl Reichardt)，BTIG。

Thanks everybody. I wanted to ask a little bit about Elliott to sort of more broadly. So the 20,000 unit goal you've got within three years, I mean, you'd be 17,000 next year at the midpoint. Does that presume any additional acquisitions?

謝謝大家。我想更廣泛地詢問一些關於艾略特的問題。因此，您在三年內實現的 20,000 台目標，我的意思是，明年的中點將達到 17,000 台。這是否意味著有任何額外的收購？

And then my thinking has been now that you've got the actual production model really dialed in. Is -- are you thinking more about trying to gain share within the markets you already are entering new since Elliott is really a very new and different market for you.

然後我的想法是，現在你已經真正撥入了實際的生產模型。您是否更多地考慮在您已經進入的新市場中爭取份額，因為 Elliott 對您來說確實是一個非常新且不同的市場。

So is it really an opportunistic deal, Phillippe? Or is this something that we could say sets a new direction for you for new geographies or doing more acquisitions to help get to that 20,000-unit goal?

那麼這真的是機會主義交易嗎，菲利普？或者我們可以說，這是否為您在新地區設定了新方向，或者進行更多收購以幫助實現 20,000 台目標？

Yes. Actually, Elliott was a very strategic deal for us. We've been looking at these markets for a while. They fit in nicely with our overall strategy to provide affordable housing. These markets are benefiting from a lack of affordability regionally in the states that are around here.

是的。事實上，埃利奧特對我們來說是一筆非常具有戰略意義的交易。我們關注這些市場已經有一段時間了。它們非常適合我們提供經濟適用房的整體策略。這些市場受益於週邊各州的區域負擔能力不足。

They still provide a great quality of life. They are attractive to first-time homebuyers move down and first move up. And the economies are actually really, really strong. So we've been thinking about getting into these markets organically or through M&A.

他們仍然提供優質的生活。它們對首次購屋者來說很有吸引力，先搬下來再搬上去。而且經濟其實非常非常強勁。因此，我們一直在考慮有機地或透過併購進入這些市場。

Elliott Homes was a great opportunity for us to partner with a great gentleman who built a phenomenal franchise in those markets so that we could go more quickly and scale from there. So it was very much a strategic fit.

Elliott Homes 對我們來說是一個與偉大的紳士合作的絕佳機會，他在這些市場上建立了非凡的特許經營權，這樣我們就可以更快地發展並從那裡擴大規模。所以這在很大程度上是一個策略契合。

As I said before, plan A is always to increase our market share organically in the markets we are. We are a top five builder across most of our markets. We think as a first-time entry-level spec builder, we should be a top three builder. As we think about where we can be a top three builder, we can easily get to 20,000 units through that growth.

正如我之前所說，A 計劃始終是在我們所在的市場中有機地增加我們的市場份額。我們是大多數市場中排名前五的建築商。我們認為，作為首次入門級規格建立商，我們應該成為前三名建造商。當我們考慮在哪裡可以成為前三名的建築商時，我們可以透過這種增長輕鬆地達到 20,000 套單位。

But we also have a number of markets that we have identified as strategic fits to our operating strategy and to our consumer segment strategy that we are looking at organically going into or acquiring the builder that would allow us to strategically enter that market at the right price.

但我們也有一些市場，我們已確定這些市場與我們的營運策略和消費者細分策略策略契合，我們正在考慮有機地進入或收購建築商，這將使我們能夠以合適的價格策略性地進入該市場。

So it's always been both of those, and we're going to deploy our capital appropriately as long as it's a good return to shareholder value. And we'll go from there. That being said, we don't have anything currently out there from an M&A standpoint that is actionable. We're looking at things, but we have a lot of growth planned organically for our existing markets.

因此，兩者始終都是如此，只要能夠為股東價值帶來良好的回報，我們就會適當地部署我們的資本。我們將從那裡開始。話雖如此，從併購的角度來看，我們目前沒有任何可行的措施。我們正在考慮一些事情，但我們為現有市場規劃了許多有機成長。

When we guided in June to 20,000 units on our investor calls, it was assuming all organic. So anything that we're doing now on is incremental.

當我們在 6 月在投資者電話會議上指導 20,000 個單位時，假設全部是有機的。所以我們現在所做的任何事情都是漸進的。

All right. And then just one thing. I think you said about $2.5 billion in spend or matched spend in '25 on land and development versus '24. Is your split between new land versus development likely to be similar to what it was in '24 too?

好的。然後只有一件事。我想你說過 25 年在土地和開發方面的支出或與 24 年相比約為 25 億美元。您對新土地與開發之間的分歧是否也可能與 24 世紀相似？

On a go-forward basis? Yes, probably a little bit heavier on land development. We've spent a lot of dollars acquiring land. And so we've mentioned about 90% of everything we acquire, we self-develop. So there's quite a bit of dollars going out the door on development. I think that the relative ratio between development and acquisition in '24 is fairly consistent on a go-forward basis.

在前進的基礎上？是的，土地開發可能有點重。我們花了很多錢買土地。我們已經提到，我們獲得的所有東西中，大約 90% 都是我們自行開發的。因此，有相當多的資金用於開發。我認為 24 年開發和收購之間的相對比例在未來的基礎上相當一致。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on stick and brick costs. We've seen lumber inflate in the last several weeks or just wood products in general actually. Can you talk a bit about what you're seeing there? Thoughts on the potential that, that path continues for that input cost. And then how does this strategy allow you to effectively price the homes as we do perhaps get some volatility in some of these core commodities?

謝謝。大家早安。我的第一個問題是關於棍子和磚塊的成本。過去幾週我們看到木材價格上漲，其實只是木製品價格上漲。您能談談您在那裡看到的情況嗎？考慮到對於該投入成本，這條路徑可能會持續下去。那麼，當我們可能會在某些核心商品中出現一些波動時，這種策略如何讓您有效地為房屋定價？

Yeah. So you're right, lumber has kicked up a bit over the last couple of weeks, although on the whole, the composite of all of our direct is kind of being exactly what we see in a normal market. Some things go up, some things go down. On average, there's maybe a little bit of a pickup, but it kind of corresponds with what we're seeing on the ASP side. So net-net, there's not a material drag from direct costs.

是的。所以你是對的，過去幾週木材價格有所上漲，儘管總體而言，我們所有直接木材的綜合情況與我們在正常市場中看到的情況完全一樣。有些東西上升，有些東西下降。平均而言，可能會有一點回升，但這與我們在 ASP 方面看到的情況相符。因此，直接成本並沒有造成實質的拖累。

With labor stabilizing, we're kind of seeing everything holding relatively within the bound of what we would consider a normal environment. So we're not seeing anything super outsized on the lumber market, although they have ticked up a bit. But overall, everything is still fairly in line.

隨著勞動力穩定，我們看到一切都相對保持在我們認為的正常環境範圍內。因此，儘管木材市場有所上漲，但我們並沒有看到任何超大型的產品。但整體而言，一切都還算順利。

The volatility in the cost that we said we are a quick turn builder, right? So you are going to see anything that's happening in the market displaying itself in our results fairly quickly.

我們說我們是一個快速週轉的建築商，對成本的波動性，對吧？因此，您很快就會看到市場上發生的任何事情都會在我們的結果中展現出來。

But with cost stabilizing and supply chain kind of returning back to normal levels, we're not seeing the variability in that today. We do have lumber locks that secure the most volatile and biggest individual component of the home. So we do have some straight lining there. But for the most part, we're not seeing tremendous movement like we had in direct in the last maybe three or four years.

但隨著成本穩定和供應鏈恢復到正常水平，我們今天沒有看到這種變化。我們確實有木材鎖來保護房屋中最不穩定和最大的單一部件。所以我們確實有一些直線。但在大多數情況下，我們沒有看到像過去三、四年那樣的直接巨大變化。

Okay. That's helpful color. And then maybe turning to capital allocation. You mentioned that you did buy back stock as you're trying to catch up a bit from earlier in the year. Just any thoughts here on how you're thinking about the shareholder return component of the business as we think about '25 and the strategy coming into full effect?

好的。這是有用的顏色。然後也許會轉向資本配置。您提到您確實回購了股票，因為您正試圖追趕今年早些時候的水平。當我們考慮 25 年以及策略全面生效時，您對業務的股東回報部分有何想法？

I don't think we have any guidance yet on capital allocations for 2025 and targets for shareholder return. We can definitely share those on our Q4 earnings call.

我認為我們還沒有關於 2025 年資本配置和股東回報目標的任何指導。我們絕對可以在第四季的財報電話會議上分享這些內容。

Okay. Thank you. Good luck with everything.

好的。謝謝。祝一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alex Barrón, Housing Research Center.

亞歷克斯·巴倫（Alex Barrón），住房研究中心。

Yeah. Great job on the quarter. I wanted to ask about Elliott, just to understand. So these existing communities, whatever homes are under way under construction and backlog. Basically, those are going to -- the previous owners are keeping and finishing those out and anything new is going to accrue to your benefit? Is that how it's going to play out?

是的。本季的工作非常出色。我想問一下艾利歐特的情況，只是為了了解一下。因此，這些現有社區，無論什麼房屋都在建設和積壓中。基本上，這些將 - 以前的所有者將保留並完成它們，並且任何新的東西都會為您帶來好處？事情會這樣發展嗎？

Yeah, but the only nuance is their existing communities were buying the remaining lots within the existing communities, and we'll start our homes on those. But anything that is under construction in the existing communities' models and sold with the Elliott team, we'll be keeping and securing the profits from those. So we're only buying the land and starting homes on the go-forward land, including inside existing communities.

是的，但唯一的細微差別是他們現有的社區正在購買現有社區內的剩餘土地，我們將在這些土地上開始我們的家。但是，任何在現有社區模型中正在建立並與 Elliott 團隊一起出售的東西，我們都將保留並確保從中獲得利潤。因此，我們只購買土地並在未來的土地上建造房屋，包括在現有社區內。

Okay. But I'm saying you guys are keeping all the team, right, like every salesperson and builders and all that stuff is now working for you?

好的。但我是說你們保留了所有的團隊，對吧，就像每個銷售人員和建築商一樣，所有這些東西現在都為你們工作了？

Yes. We don't have an operation in the Gulf Coast. So the Elliott team is joining our team, and we look forward to building a great company down there.

是的。我們在墨西哥灣沿岸沒有業務。因此，Elliott 團隊正在加入我們的團隊，我們期待在那裡建立一家偉大的公司。

Okay. Now I was briefly looking at their website, and it looks like their price points are pretty low. I mean, some homes are even as low as $170,000. Are you guys planning on continuing along those same price points? And if so, what's allowing that? Is the land just cheaper in those markets than in other markets?

好的。現在我簡單地瀏覽了他們的網站，看起來他們的價格相當低。我的意思是，有些房屋的價格甚至低至 17 萬美元。你們打算繼續保持同樣的價格嗎？如果是這樣，是什麼允許這樣做？這些市場的土地是否比其他市場便宜？

Yes, we love it. The lower, the better, more affordability for the folks. So as we currently sit here today, we plan to continue operating in the price points and submarkets that they're in. And to answer your question, they had some of the best margins we've ever seen from private builders.

是的，我們喜歡它。越低越好，老百姓更能承受。因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們計劃繼續在他們所處的價位和子市場中運作。為了回答你的問題，他們的利潤率是我們在私人建築商中見過的最好的。

So they've executed a very profitable business there, and you can get the land on the ground to achieve that affordability. Some of the low-low stuff is kind of some unique stuff that they were building. We're probably not going to continue too much with that. But their core operating model is a 30 and 40 Y product. And it's in the high 2s, low 3s, and we intend to build our franchise around that.

因此，他們在那裡開展了一項非常有利可圖的業務，您可以透過購買土地來實現這種負擔能力。一些低低的東西是他們正在建造的一些獨特的東西。我們可能不會繼續太多這樣的事情。但他們的核心營運模式是30年和40年的產品。它處於高 2 分、低 3 分，我們打算圍繞這一點建立我們的特許經營權。

Yeah, we're going to be building a lot of their products. So we're going to be maintaining, the fantastic product offering that they have down there. So you should expect to see that. And it's fully polluted to low cost is significantly less expensive in these markets, which is what allows the the lower price points but actually improve profitability.

是的，我們將生產他們的許多產品。因此，我們將維持他們在那裡提供的出色產品。所以你應該期待看到這一點。而且它完全污染了低成本，在這些市場上顯著便宜，這就是允許較低的價格點但實際上提高了盈利能力的原因。

Got it. Well, best of luck. Thanks.

知道了。好吧，祝你好運。謝謝。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush Securities.

傑伊‧麥肯利斯，韋德布希證券公司。

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. Actually, Alex stole most of the ones I had on Elliott. But I did want to ask, we've heard some of your competitors talk about the cost of these mortgage rates -- mortgage rate buydowns increasing.

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。事實上，亞歷克斯偷了我在艾利歐特上的大部分內容。但我確實想問，我們聽到你們的一些競爭對手談論這些抵押貸款利率的成本——抵押貸款利率購買不斷增加。

And I wanted to ask if that ratio of 25 bps of mortgage rate -- nominal rate is still costing about 100 basis points of gross margin? Or is that ratio increased now with some of the rate volatility we're seeing?

我想問的是，25 個基點的抵押貸款利率 - 名目利率是否仍然會損失約 100 個基點的毛利率？或者，隨著我們看到的一些利率波動，該比率現在是否增加？

Yeah. We have a slightly different structure on our rate locks. So I'm not sure that there's any rule of thumb that you can use for that. The costs are staying elevated, although we've changed our offering a little bit.

是的。我們的利率鎖定結構略有不同。所以我不確定是否有任何經驗法則可供您使用。儘管我們稍微改變了我們的產品，但成本仍然居高不下。

So the per home is not materially different, but the utilization of how many folks are using them and meeting the rate lock -- or I shouldn't even say meeting, I should say reaching the rate lock due to psychological fear about buying at a certain time in the market, that percentage is increasing.

因此，每個家庭的利用率並沒有本質上的不同，而是有多少人使用它們並滿足利率鎖定的利用率- 或者我什至不應該說會議，我應該說由於對購買的心理恐懼而達到利率鎖定在市場的某個時期，這個比例正在增加。

Yes. And then the other question I had -- and I jumped on a bit late, so I apologize. But how many communities is Elliott anticipated to add? And did you give any guidance for fiscal '25 community count growth?

是的。然後是我的另一個問題——我有點晚了，所以我道歉。但 Elliott 預計將增加多少個社區？您是否對 25 財年社區人數成長提供了任何指導？

Yeah, we did guide that we would finish comfortably over 300 to end this year, including the Elliott Homes acquisition. We also guided to double-digit growth for next year over that number. So that's what we provided in our release.

是的，我們確實預計到今年年底我們將輕鬆完成 300 多個項目，其中包括 Elliott Homes 的收購案。我們也預計明年將實現兩位數的成長。這就是我們在版本中提供的內容。

And then we're still evaluating exactly how money on a go-forward communities we're going to have with Elliott Homes. We want to make sure we understand not only which ones are going to be active, but how long they're going to be active before we give a final count on that, and we'll be prepared to do that in our next release.

然後我們仍在準確評估我們將透過 Elliott Homes 為未來的社區帶來多少資金。我們希望確保我們不僅了解哪些將處於活動狀態，而且還了解它們將活動多長時間，然後再進行最終計算，並且我們將準備在下一個版本中做到這一點。

Okay, great. Thank you. I appreciate it.

好的，太好了。謝謝。我很感激。

Thank you, operator. That was the last question.

謝謝你，接線生。這是最後一個問題。

It sure was. Over to you for any further or closing comments.

確實如此。如有任何進一步或結束評論，請交給您。

Thank you. I'd like to thank everyone who joined this call today for your continued interest in Meritage Homes. We hope you have a great rest of your day and a great rest of the week. (spoken in foreign language)

謝謝。我要感謝今天參加本次電話會議的所有人對 Meritage Homes 的持續關注。我們希望您度過愉快的一天和一周。（用外語說）

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。