M&T Bank Corp (MTB) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Please stand by. Your program is about to begin. (Operator Instructions) Welcome to the M&T Bank first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. And I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Wendelboe, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請稍候。您的程式即將開始。（操作員指示）歡迎參加 M&T 銀行 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁史蒂夫溫德爾博 (Steve Wendelboe)。請繼續。

Thank you, Margaux, and good morning. I'd like to thank everyone for participating in M&T's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call, both by telephone and through the webcast.

謝謝你，瑪歌，早安。我要感謝大家透過電話和網路直播參加 M&T 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。

If you have not read through the earnings release we issued this morning, you may access it along with the financial tables and schedules by going to our website at mtb.com. Once there, you can click on the Investor Relations link and then on the Events and Presentations link. Close captioning has been provided for webcast participants.

如果您還沒有閱讀我們今天早上發布的收益報告，您可以訪問我們的網站 mtb.com 查看它以及財務表格和時間表。到達那裡後，您可以點擊“投資者關係”鏈接，然後點擊“活動和演示”鏈接。已提供網路直播參與者隱藏式字幕。

Also, before we start, I'd like to mention that today's presentation may contain forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information are included in today's earnings release materials and in the investor presentation, as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. The presentation also includes non-GAAP financial measures as identified in the earnings release and investor presentation. The appropriate reconciliations to GAAP are included in the Appendix.

另外，在我們開始之前，我想提一下，今天的演示可能包含前瞻性資訊。有關此資訊的警告聲明包含在今天的收益發布資料和投資者介紹中，以及我們的美國證券交易委員會文件和其他投資者資料中。該報告還包括收益報告和投資者報告中確定的非公認會計準則財務指標。與 GAAP 的適當對帳包含在附錄中。

Joining me on the call today is M&T's Senior Executive Vice President and CFO, Daryl Bible. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Daryl.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 M&T 的高級執行副總裁兼財務長 Daryl Bible。現在我想把電話轉給達裡爾。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. First, I will begin with our purpose on slide 3. Our purpose is to make a difference in people's lives. We are committed to serving not only our customers, but also supporting communities where we live and work, inspiring our 22,000 employees and delivering for our shareholders.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。首先，我將從投影片 3 開始介紹我們的目的。我們的目標是改變人們的生活。我們致力於不僅服務我們的客戶，還支持我們生活和工作的社區，激勵我們的 22,000 名員工並為我們的股東帶來回報。

In René's annual shareholder letter, he notes that we operate in an environment in which change is the only constant. In these uncertain times, M&T starts from a position of strength with a strong liquidity, capital levels, and capital generation. This position of strength reflects our consistent adherence to the fundamentals of liquidity management, capital allocation, and transparency.

在雷內 (René) 的年度股東信中，他指出，我們所處的環境中唯一不變的就是變化。在這些不確定的時期，M&T 憑藉強大的流動性、資本水準和資本生成能力佔據優勢地位。這一優勢地位反映了我們始終堅持流動性管理、資本配置和透明度的基本原則。

The strength of this operating model allows M&T to continue to perform through the peaks and valleys of the macroeconomic cycles, and support our customers and communities in the moments that matter most. As highlighted on slide 4, we continue to receive notable recognition, including 13 Greenwich Coalition awards for our small business and middle market segments. And we were included in Fortune's Most Admired and Most Innovative Company list.

這種營運模式的優勢使得 M&T 能夠在宏觀經濟週期的高峰和低谷中繼續保持良好的業績，並在最重要的時刻為我們的客戶和社區提供支援。正如幻燈片 4 所強調的，我們繼續獲得顯著的認可，包括針對我們的小型企業和中型市場部門的 13 項格林威治聯盟獎。我們也被《財星》雜誌列入「最受讚賞、最具創新力的公司」名單。

Turning to slide 6, which shows the results for the first quarter. Our first-quarter results represent a strong start to the year with several successes to highlight. Net interest margin increased 8 basis points, reflecting our efficient balance sheet and the strength of our deposit franchise. We executed $662 million in share repurchases as we continue toward an 11% CET1 ratio in 2025, while also growing tangible book value per share by 2%.

翻到投影片 6，顯示的是第一季的結果。我們第一季的業績為今年帶來了強勁的開端，並取得了許多值得強調的成功。淨利差增加了 8 個基點，反映了我們高效的資產負債表和存款特許經營的實力。我們執行了 6.62 億美元的股票回購，並繼續努力在 2025 年實現 11% 的 CET1 比率，同時每隻有形帳面價值成長 2%。

Fee income grew 5% since the first quarter of '24 or 10% if you exclude last year's BLG distribution. Asset quality continued to improve with a $516 million reduction in commercial criticized balances and a $150 million reduction in nonaccrual loans. Our net charge-offs of 34 basis points were below our full-year expectations of 40 basis points.

自 2024 年第一季以來，費用收入成長了 5%，如果不包括去年的 BLG 分配，則成長了 10%。資產品質持續改善，商業不良貸款餘額減少 5.16 億美元，非應計貸款減少 1.5 億美元。我們的淨沖銷額為 34 個基點，低於全年預期的 40 個基點。

Now let's look at the specifics for the first quarter. Diluted GAAP earnings per share were $3.32, down from $3.86 in the prior quarter. Net income was $584 million compared to $681 million in the linked quarter. M&T's first-quarter results produced an ROA and ROCE of 1.14% and 8.36%, respectively.

現在讓我們來看看第一季的具體情況。稀釋後 GAAP 每股收益為 3.32 美元，低於上一季的 3.86 美元。淨收入為 5.84 億美元，而上一季為 6.81 億美元。M&T 第一季的業績顯示，ROA 和 ROCE 分別為 1.14% 和 8.36%。

Slide 7 includes supplemental reporting of M&T's results on a net operating or tangible basis. M&T's net operating income was $594 million compared to $691 million in the linked quarter. Diluted net operating earnings per share were $3.38, down from $3.92 in the prior quarter. Net operating income [muted] an ROTA and ROTCE of 1.21% and 12.53%.

投影片 7 包括 M&T 淨營業或有形績效的補充報告。M&T 的淨營業收入為 5.94 億美元，而上一季為 6.91 億美元。每股攤薄淨營業收益為 3.38 美元，低於上一季的 3.92 美元。營業淨收入[減弱] ROTA 和 ROTCE 分別為 1.21% 和 12.53%。

Next, let's look a little deeper into the underlying trends that generated our first-quarter results. Please turn to slide 8. Taxable-equivalent net interest income was $1.71 billion, a decrease of $33 million or 2% from linked quarter. The lower NII was primarily driven by two fewer days and lower average earning assets, partially offset by favorable deposit costs.

接下來，讓我們更深入地了解第一季業績的潛在趨勢。請翻到第 8 張投影片。應稅淨利息收入為 17.1 億美元，較上一季減少 3,300 萬美元，降幅為 2%。NII 較低主要是因為借款天數減少兩天以及平均收益資產減少，但優惠的存款成本部分抵消了這一影響。

Net interest margin was 3.66%, an increase of 8 basis points from the prior quarter. The primary drivers of the increase in margin include continued securities growth and lower wholesale, funding, and time deposits; and favorable deposit pricing, with interest-bearing deposit cost declining 27 basis points.

淨利差為3.66%，較上季增加8個基點。保證金增加的主要驅動因素包括證券持續成長以及批發、融資和定期存款減少；存款定價優惠，計息存款成本下降27個基點。

Turning to slide 10 to talk about average loans. Average loans and leases decreased $0.9 million to $134.8 billion. Lower CRE balances were partially offset by the growth in C&I, consumer, and residential mortgage. C&I loans grew 1% to $61 billion, driven by continued strength in the corporate, institutional, and fund banking. CRE loans declined 6% to $26.3 billion, reflecting payoffs and paydowns and muted origination activity with increased market competition.

翻到第 10 張投影片討論平均貸款。平均貸款和租賃減少 90 萬美元，至 1,348 億美元。較低的 CRE 餘額被 C&I、消費者和住宅抵押貸款的成長部分抵消。受企業、機構和基金銀行業務持續強勁的推動，商業和工業貸款成長 1%，達到 610 億美元。商業房地產貸款下降 6% 至 263 億美元，反映出隨著市場競爭加劇，貸款還款和償還量以及貸款發放活動減少。

Residential mortgage loans were relatively unchanged at $23.2 billion. Consumer loans grew 1% to $24.3 billion, reflecting increases in recreational finance and indirect auto loans. Loan yields decreased 11 basis points to 6.06%, as lower rates on variable loans and lower nonaccrual interest was partially offset by-fixed rate loan repricing and a smaller drag on our cash flow hedges.

住宅抵押貸款基本上保持不變，為 232 億美元。消費貸款成長 1%，達到 243 億美元，反映了休閒金融和間接汽車貸款的成長。貸款收益率下降 11 個基點至 6.06%，因為浮動利率貸款利率降低和非應計利息降低被固定利率貸款重新定價和現金流對沖的拖累較小部分抵消。

Turning to slide 11, our liquidity remains strong. At the end of the first quarter, investment securities and cash, including cash held at the Fed, totaled $57.9 billion, representing 28% of total assets. Average investment securities increased $0.8 billion. The yield on the investment securities increased 12 basis points to 4%, as the yield for new purchases exceeded the yield on maturing securities.

轉到第 11 張投影片，我們的流動性依然強勁。第一季末，包括在聯準會持有的現金在內的投資證券和現金總額為579億美元，佔總資產的28%。平均投資證券增加了 8 億美元。由於新購買證券的收益率超過到期證券的收益率，投資證券的收益率上升了 12 個基點，達到 4%。

In the first quarter, we purchased $2.6 billion in debt securities at an average yield of 4.9%. The duration of the portfolio at the end of the quarter was 3.6 years. And the unrealized pretax loss on the available-for-sale portfolio was $8 million or less than 1 basis point CET1 drag if included in regulatory capital.

第一季度，我們購買了 26 億美元的債務證券，平均收益率為 4.9%。本季末投資組合的久期為3.6年。可供出售投資組合的未實現稅前損失為 800 萬美元，如果計入監理資本，則低於 1 個基點的 CET1 拖累。

Turning to slide 12. Average total deposits declined $3.4 billion or 2% to $161.2 billion. A sequential decline included $0.7 billion decline in broker deposits, while the remainder of the decline was concentrated in commercial and business banking, partially reflecting seasonal lower balances. Average noninterest-bearing deposits declined $1.1 billion to $45.4 billion. Excluding broker deposits, average noninterest-bearing deposit mix in the first quarter was relatively unchanged at [30.2%].

翻到第 12 張投影片。平均總存款減少 34 億美元，或 2%，至 1,612 億美元。連續下降包括經紀存款減少 7 億美元，其餘下降集中在商業和企業銀行業務，部分反映了季節性餘額較低。平均無息存款減少 11 億美元至 454 億美元。不包括經紀人存款，第一季平均無息存款組合相對不變，為[30.2%]。

Interest-bearing deposit costs decreased 27 basis points to 2.37%. We saw favorable deposit declines across business lines. Higher level of broker and retail time deposit maturities in the quarter also contributed to the deposit cost decline.

計息存款成本下降27個基點至2.37%。我們看到各業務線的存款都出現下降。本季經紀商和零售定期存款到期日的增加也導致存款成本下降。

Continuing on slide 13, noninterest income was $611 million compared to $657 million in the linked quarter. We saw continued strength across fee income categories, with increases in mortgage banking, service charges, trust, and brokerage fee income.

延續第 13 張投影片，非利息收入為 6.11 億美元，而上一季為 6.57 億美元。我們看到各費用收入類別持續保持強勁勢頭，其中抵押銀行、服務費、信託和經紀費收入均增加。

Recall that the fourth quarter included an $18 million net gain from the sale of noncore securities and a $23 million BLG distribution. Excluding these items from the prior quarter, noninterest income declined by $5 million sequentially.

回想一下，第四季包括出售非核心證券的 1,800 萬美元淨收益和 2,300 萬美元的 BLG 分配。若不計上一季的這些項目，非利息收入將季減 500 萬美元。

Mortgage banking revenues were $118 million compared to $117 million in the fourth quarter. Residential mortgage banking revenues increased $6 million sequentially to $82 million, reflecting the partial-quarter benefit from new subservicing. We expect to reach the full run rate on this subservicing in the second quarter.

抵押貸款銀行業務收入為 1.18 億美元，而第四季為 1.17 億美元。住宅抵押貸款銀行業務收入環比增加 600 萬美元，達到 8,200 萬美元，反映了新次級服務帶來的部分季度收益。我們預計該次級服務的運作率將在第二季達到最高。

Commercial mortgage banking revenues decreased $5 million to $36 million, reflecting lower gains on the sale of commercial mortgage loans. Other revenues from operations decreased $34 million to $142 million, mostly reflecting the fourth-quarter $23 million BLG distribution.

商業抵押貸款銀行收入減少 500 萬美元至 3,600 萬美元，反映出商業抵押貸款銷售收益下降。其他經營收入減少 3,400 萬美元至 1.42 億美元，主要反映了第四季 2,300 萬美元的 BLG 分配。

Turning to slide 14, we continue to execute on our expense plans. Noninterest expenses were $1.42 billion, an increase of $52 million from the prior quarter. Last year's fourth quarter included $35 million in notable expenses related to the redemption of certain M&T trust preferred obligations, expenses associated with corporate real estate optimization, partially offset by pension-related credit.

翻到第 14 張投影片，我們繼續執行我們的費用計畫。非利息支出為 14.2 億美元，較上一季增加 5,200 萬美元。去年第四季包括與贖回某些 M&T 信託優先債務相關的 3,500 萬美元顯著費用、與企業房地產優化相關的費用，部分被退休金相關信貸所抵銷。

Salary and benefits increased $97 million to $887 million, mostly reflecting $110 million of seasonally higher compensation expense related to stock-based compensation, payroll-related taxes, and other employee benefit expenses.

薪資和福利增加了 9,700 萬美元，達到 8.87 億美元，主要反映了與股票薪資、薪資相關稅費和其他員工福利費用相關的季節性較高薪資費用 1.1 億美元。

As usual, we expect those seasonal factors to decline significantly as we enter the second quarter. Other cost of operations decreased $50 million to $118 million, primarily reflecting the previously mentioned fourth-quarter notable items. The efficiency ratio was 60.5% compared to 56.8% in the linked quarter.

與往常一樣，我們預計進入第二季時這些季節性因素將大幅下降。其他營運成本減少 5,000 萬美元至 1.18 億美元，主要反映了前面提到的第四季度顯著項目。本季效率比率為 60.5%，上一季為 56.8%。

Next, let's turn to slide 15 for credit. Net charge-offs for the quarter totaled $114 million or 34 basis points, decreasing from 47 basis points in the linked quarter. Charge-offs were relatively granular in the first quarter, with the five largest charges amounting to less than $30 million in total, representing both C&I and CRE credits.

接下來，我們翻到第 15 張投影片來看表揚。本季淨沖銷總額為 1.14 億美元，即 34 個基點，低於上一季的 47 個基點。第一季的沖銷金額相對較小，五項最大沖銷總額不到 3,000 萬美元，包括 C&I 和 CRE 抵免。

Nonaccrual loans decreased $150 million or 9% to $1.5 billion. The nonaccrual ratio decreased 11 basis points to 1.14% driven largely by payoffs, charge-offs, and upgrades out of nonaccrual. In the fourth quarter, we reported a provision of $130 million compared to the net charge-offs of $114 million.

非應計貸款減少 1.5 億美元，即 9%，至 15 億美元。非應計比率下降 11 個基點至 1.14%，主要原因是非應計利息的支付、沖銷和升級。第四季度，我們報告的撥備為 1.3 億美元，而淨沖銷額為 1.14 億美元。

The allowance to loan ratio increased 2 basis points to 1.63%, reflecting growth in certain consumer loan portfolios as well as a modest deterioration in the macroeconomic forecast. The increase was not related to changes in the underlying credit performance, which is mostly in line with expectations.

撥備貸款比率上升 2 個基點至 1.63%，反映出某些消費貸款組合的成長以及宏觀經濟預測的輕微惡化。此成長與基礎信貸表現的變化無關，基本上符合預期。

Please turn to slide 16. We estimate that the level of criticized loans will be $9.4 billion compared to $9.9 billion at the end of December. The improvement from the linked quarter was driven by $667 million decline in CRE criticized balances, partially offset by a $150 million increase in C&I.

請翻到第 16 張投影片。我們估計，受批評的貸款金額將達到 94 億美元，而 12 月底為 99 億美元。與上一季相比，業績改善的原因是 CRE 受批評餘額減少了 6.67 億美元，但被 C&I 增加 1.5 億美元部分抵銷。

Within C&I, the increase in criticized was concentrated in a motor vehicle and recreational finance dealers. The CRE criticized decline was primarily within multifamily, office, healthcare, construction, and was driven by payoffs, paydowns, and upgrades to past status. Improved leasing, occupancy, and cash flows in healthcare and multifamily helped drive the improvement in the CRE criticized.

在工商業領域，受到批評的增加主要集中在機動車輛和休閒金融經銷商。受到批評的 CRE 下滑主要發生在多戶住宅、辦公大樓、醫療保健、建築領域，原因是還款、還款和對過去地位的升級。醫療保健和多戶住宅領域的租賃、入住率和現金流的改善有助於推動受到批評的企業房地產的改善。

Turning to slide 19 for capital. M&T CET1 ratio at the end of the first quarter was an estimated 11.5% compared to 11.68% at the end of the fourth quarter. The decline in the CET1 ratio reflects increased capital distributions, including $662 million in share repurchases, partially offset by continued strong capital generation. AOCI impact on the CET1 ratio from available-for-sale securities and pension-related components combined would be approximately a positive 6 basis points if included in regulatory capital.

翻到第 19 張投影片，了解資本狀況。第一季末的 M&T CET1 比率估計為 11.5%，而第四季末為 11.68%。CET1 比率的下降反映了資本分配的增加，包括 6.62 億美元的股票回購，但被持續強勁的資本生成部分抵消。若納入監理資本，AOCI 對可供出售證券和退休金相關成分合計對 CET1 比率的影響將約為正 6 個基點。

Now turning to slide 20 for the outlook. First, let's begin with the economic backdrop. The economic backdrop remains dynamic in light of the developments over the past several weeks. Recent economic data is mixed with strong job gains but moderating wage growth. Our recent readings show weakening business and consumer sentiment and easing inflation.

現在翻到第 20 張投影片來了解展望。首先，讓我們從經濟背景開始。從過去幾週的發展來看，經濟背景依然充滿活力。近期的經濟數據好壞參半，就業成長強勁，但薪資成長放緩。我們最近的數據顯示企業和消費者信心正在減弱，通膨正在緩解。

The ultimate impact on tariffs on the broader economy remains unknown at this point. That uncertainty is reflected in recent equity market and rate volatility. We ended the first quarter well positioned for a dynamic economic environment of strong liquidity, strong capital generation, and a CET1 ratio at 11.5%. With that economic backdrop, let's review our net interest income outlook.

目前，關稅對整體經濟的最終影響仍不得而知。這種不確定性反映在近期的股市和利率波動。我們在第一季結束時處於有利地位，處於充滿活力的經濟環境中，流動性強勁，資本生成能力強，CET1 比率為 11.5%。在這樣的經濟背景下，讓我們回顧一下淨利息收入前景。

We expect taxable-equivalent net interest income to be $7.05 billion to $7.15 billion, with net interest margin increasing through the year and averaging in the mid- to high 3.60s. We expect the full-year average loan and lease balances to be $135 billion to $137 billion.

我們預計應稅淨利息收入為 70.5 億美元至 71.5 億美元，淨利差全年將增加，平均在 3.60 左右。我們預計全年平均貸款和租賃餘額為 1,350 億美元至 1,370 億美元。

The lower loan outlook reflects lower CRE balances with elevated payoffs and paydowns and muted originations. Full-year average deposit balances are expected to be $162 billion to $164 billion. We remain focused on growing customer deposits at a reasonable cost while also considering loan growth.

貸款前景較低反映了企業房地產餘額較低、還款額和還款額增加以及貸款發放量減少。預計全年平均存款餘額為1,620億美元至1,640億美元。我們仍專注於以合理的成本增加客戶存款，同時也考慮貸款成長。

Turning to fee income, we expect noninterest income to be at the high end of the $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion range. The environment remains dynamic. However, our diversified product set should help provide relative stability from our fee income businesses. Continuing with expenses, we anticipate total noninterest expense, including intangible amortization, to be $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion.

談到費用收入，我們預計非利息收入將達到 25 億美元至 26 億美元的高端。環境依然處於動態之中。然而，我們多樣化的產品組合應該有助於為我們的手續費收入業務提供相對的穩定性。繼續討論支出，我們預計包括無形攤銷在內的非利息總支出將達到 54 億美元至 55 億美元。

Our business lines remain focused on closely managing their expenses, allowing the bank to continue to target investments in projects and business opportunities that support our enterprise priorities. Regarding credit, we continue to expect net charge-offs for the full year to be near 40 basis points.

我們的業務線仍然專注於密切管理其費用，使銀行能夠繼續有針對性地投資於支持我們企業重點的專案和商業機會。關於信貸，我們繼續預期全年淨沖銷額將接近 40 個基點。

We also expect criticized loans to continue to decline in 2025. As it relates to capital, we expect the CET1 ratio to reach 11% in 2025. But we'll monitor the economic backdrop and adjust as needed. The level of share repurchases will vary with RWA growth.

我們也預計，到 2025 年，受批評的貸款將繼續下降。就資本而言，我們預計 CET1 比率將在 2025 年達到 11%。但我們會監測經濟背景並根據需要進行調整。股票回購水準將隨著 RWA 的成長而變化。

As shown on slide 21, we remain committed to our four priorities, including growing our New England and Long Island markets, optimizing our resources through simplification, making our systems resilient and scalable, and continuing to scale and develop our risk management capabilities.

如投影片 21 所示，我們仍然致力於我們的四個優先事項，包括發展我們的新英格蘭和長島市場、透過簡化優化我們的資源、使我們的系統具有彈性和可擴展性，以及繼續擴大和發展我們的風險管理能力。

To conclude on slide 22, our results underscore an optimistic investment thesis. M&T has always been a purpose-driven organization, with a successful business model that benefits all stakeholders, including shareholders.

在第 22 張投影片上總結一下，我們的結果強調了一個樂觀的投資論點。M&T 一直是目標驅動的組織，擁有成功的商業模式，使包括股東在內的所有利害關係人受益。

We have a long track record of credit outperforming through all economic cycles while growing within the markets we serve. We remain focused on shareholder returns and consistent dividend growth. Finally, we are a disciplined acquirer and prudent steward of our shareholder capital.

我們擁有長期的信用記錄，在所有經濟週期中都表現出色，並且在我們服務的市場中不斷發展。我們仍然關注股東回報和持續的股息成長。最後，我們是嚴謹的收購者，也是股東資本的審慎管理者。

Now let's open the call up to questions, before which Margaux will briefly review the instructions.

現在讓我們開始提問，在此之前，瑪歌將簡要回顧說明。

(Operator Instructions) Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

（操作員指示） Ken Usdin，自主研究。

Thank you very much. Good morning, Daryl. So one question just on the NII. You mentioned that the environment has meaningfully changed. And we see a smaller balance sheet here, offset by a little bit better of a NIM output.

非常感謝。早安，達裡爾。我只問一個關於 NII 的問題。您提到環境已經發生了有意義的變化。我們看到這裡的資產負債表規模較小，但 NIM 產出略有改善。

Are you noticing anything in terms of the deposit flow activity, more specifically in terms of how much more mix shift you might expect and how much more you might be able to also continue to work down that higher cost liability side? Thanks.

您是否注意到存款流動活動方面的任何情況，更具體地說，您是否注意到您可能預期的組合變化有多少，以及您可能還能夠在多大程度上繼續降低成本較高的負債方面？謝謝。

Yeah, Ken, we are definitely -- we did lower the guidance on deposits. But I think we feel pretty comfortable that we'll probably be at the higher end of the deposit range. So having really good growth of our businesses across the board, whether it's commercial, small business, consumer, our ICS business kind of grows as activity in the marketplace is growing.

是的，肯，我們確實降低了存款指導價。但我認為我們感覺相當舒服，我們可能會處於存款範圍的高端。因此，我們的業務全面實現了良好成長，無論是商業、小型企業或消費者，我們的 ICS 業務都隨著市場活動的成長而成長。

So I think where we feel pretty positive on the deposit growth. And we'll use those additional deposits if we don't have loan growth to either pay off higher liabilities in the marketplace that we have on the balance sheet, cheaper funding. Or we'll put it at the Fed and just got more liquidity on hand, one or the other. But we feel good about on the deposit side.

因此我認為我們對存款成長持相當樂觀的態度。如果我們的貸款沒有成長，我們將使用這些額外的存款來償還資產負債表上的市場更高負債，或獲得更便宜的融資。或者我們將其存入美聯儲，從而獲得更多的流動性，二者必居其一。但我們對存款方面感覺良好。

Okay. And second one on fees. The first quarter, $611 million or so, but you're still talking about the high end of $2.6 billion. I noticed that -- I don't believe -- was there a Bayview distribution in the first quarter? Was that pushed? And can you just talk about the ramp that you get from here going forward and your confidence in getting towards that higher end on fees? Thanks.

好的。第二個是關於費用。第一季約為 6.11 億美元，但您談論的仍然是 26 億美元的高端。我注意到——我不相信——第一季有 Bayview 分銷嗎？那是被推的嗎？您能否談談今後的費用成長以及您對達到更高費用水準的信心？謝謝。

Yeah. So you are right, Bayview, we did not get a distribution in the first quarter. We kind of took it out for the rest of the year. We may or may not get a distribution from Bayview. They're working on some things internally.

是的。所以你是對的，Bayview，我們在第一季沒有獲得分配。我們在一年餘下的時間裡都把它拿出來了。我們可能會或可能不會從 Bayview 獲得分配。他們正在內部處理一些事情。

So we will do, but if you look at all of our other businesses that we're having, we're having really good growth across. I would expect our fee businesses to grow from where we are in the first quarter, I think, significantly in the second, third, and first quarters. We have a lot of momentum across all of our businesses. Our trust businesses are strong.

我們會這樣做，但如果你看看我們所有的其他業務，你會發現我們的整體成長都非常好。我預計我們的收費業務將在第一季的基礎上大幅成長，而且在第二季、第三季和第一季都將大幅成長。我們所有業務都發展勢頭強勁。我們的信託業務很強大。

If you look at ICS, they're doing really well. And they're structured loan agency businesses and activity, also bringing in deposits activity. So that's really positive. Our service charges are actually performing really well right now.

如果你看一下 ICS，你會發現他們做得非常好。它們是結構化的貸款代理業務和活動，也帶來存款活動。這確實是積極的。目前我們的服務費其實表現非常好。

From a mortgage banking perspective, if rates come down and then -- who knows which way the yield curve is going to go. But we are positioned to have really good mortgage revenues, both on the commercial and residential side from originations.

從抵押貸款銀行的角度來看，如果利率下降，那麼——誰知道殖利率曲線將如何變化。但我們的定位是獲得非常好的抵押貸款收入，無論是商業還是住宅方面的收入。

You did see the increase in our numbers now this quarter from additional subservicing. That could have other opportunities for growth, potentially as that kind of continues to grow. Brokerage services are strong. So I think net-net, overall, I think we're pretty positive on our fees.

您確實看到本季我們的業務量因額外的次級服務而有所增長。這可能還有其他成長機會，並且可能會持續成長。經紀服務實力雄厚。所以我認為，總體而言，我們對我們的費用持相當樂觀的態度。

Okay. Thanks, Daryl.

好的。謝謝，達裡爾。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Good morning, Daryl. I guess, in your remarks, you mentioned tariff uncertainties were reflected in the stock markets and in interest rates. Just, if you don't mind, talk to us about any anecdotal sort of feedback from your customers over the last week or two around tariffs? Are you seeing CapEx decisions being pulled back? Just would love any color there. And then how is that informing your outlook on C&I growth?

早安，達裡爾。我想，您在演講中提到關稅的不確定性反映在股票市場和利率上。如果您不介意的話，能否跟我們談談過去一兩週內您的客戶對關稅的任何軼事回饋？您是否看到資本支出決策被撤回？只是喜歡那裡的任何顏色。那麼這對您對 C&I 成長的展望有何影響？

Yeah. All of that's fair. So I think if you look at it overall and you saw the [sentiment] numbers, we're both weak on the consumer and on the business side. If you start with the consumer, from just looking at our debit card activity, our spending patterns are still pretty much intact there. So I think we're pretty consistent.

是的。這一切都是公平的。所以我認為，如果你從整體上看，並且看到了（情緒）數據，你會發現我們在消費者和商業方面都很薄弱。如果從消費者開始，僅從我們的金融卡活動來看，我們的消費模式仍然基本上完好無損。所以我認為我們相當一致。

We are seeing -- and it could just be short lived -- but in our indirect channels on the consumer side, a lot of loan volume coming in auto, marine, and RV, maybe people rushing before higher prices. So -- but that's really good volume there. In the bottom 20%, consumer has been struggling for the last several years, and we'll continue to probably continue to struggle.

我們看到——這可能只是短暫的——但在我們消費者方面的間接管道中，大量的貸款來自汽車、船舶和房車，也許人們在價格上漲之前就蜂擁而至。所以——但那裡的音量確實很好。在底層 20% 的消費者過去幾年一直在苦苦掙扎，我們可能還會繼續苦苦掙扎。

Business-wise, our customers actually really wanted to make a lot of investments. They want to do acquisitions. They are just really on pause right now. I think it's just lack of confidence. They don't know what the rules of the road are right now. Things keep changing in the DC. And until that settles out a little bit, I think they're going to be on hold until they come through.

從商業角度來看，我們的客戶實際上確實想進行大量投資。他們想要進行收購。他們現在確實處於暫停狀態。我認為這只是缺乏信心。他們不知道現在的交通規則是什麼。華盛頓特區的情況不斷改變。直到情況稍微穩定下來，我認為他們會繼續等待，直到他們成功。

That said, we've been able to grow our C&I business. We grew nicely. If you look at it in our middle market space, we had good growth there. We had growth in fund banking, corporate, and institutional. Our dealer commercial services grew. So we're growing really well in that space.

也就是說，我們已經能夠發展我們的 C&I 業務。我們成長得很好。如果你看一下我們的中端市場，你會發現我們在那裡取得了良好的成長。我們的基金銀行業務、企業和機構業務均有所成長。我們的經銷商商業服務不斷發展。所以我們在該領域發展得非常好。

It's really our CRE portfolio, it's really where the challenges are. And that's really a portfolio that's having us shrink and lower our loan guidance for the most part.

這確實是我們的 CRE 投資組合，也是真正的挑戰。這實際上是一種投資組合，它在很大程度上使我們縮減並降低我們的貸款指導。

That's helpful. And I guess, maybe the other thing on capital. You mentioned CET1 to 11% depending on RWA growth. Just give us -- how price sensitive you are. I mean, I think the stock's come down a fair bit relative to where you repurchased during the first quarter.

這很有幫助。我想，也許還有關於資本的其他事。您提到 CET1 達到 11% 取決於 RWA 成長。只需告訴我們您對價格的敏感度如何。我的意思是，我認為相對於第一季回購的股票而言，該股票的價格已經下跌了不少。

Like how quickly could we see if customers remain on pause, that M&T gets to 11%? Yeah. And you mentioned also opportunistic buyer as regards to capital. Like are there any deals to be done and given just all the macro uncertainties right now? Thanks.

例如，如果客戶繼續暫停，我們多久能看到 M&T 達到 11%？是的。您也提到了資本方面的機會主義買家。例如，考慮到目前所有的宏觀不確定性，是否有任何交易可以達成？謝謝。

So with the volatility in the marketplace -- I emphasized in the prepared remarks, we really do have strong capital and liquidity. Our capital is the real capital. Our AOCI actually is a positive 6 basis points. So we feel good about that.

因此，面對市場的波動——我在準備好的發言中強調過，我們確實擁有強大的資本和流動性。我們的資本才是真正的資本。我們的 AOCI 其實是正 6 個基點。因此我們對此感到很高興。

We will monitor market conditions. We still plan to start our share repurchase back on Wednesday when we come back out. And we're just monitoring. If we see the economy go into a negative spend down, we might slow down or pause. But until we see that, right now, the trends for the most are pretty uneventful.

我們將監測市場狀況。我們仍計劃在周三回來時開始股票回購。我們只是在監視。如果我們看到經濟陷入負支出下滑，我們可能會放慢腳步或暫停。但直到我們看到這一點之前，目前，大多數趨勢都相當平淡。

And we'll just kind of play it as we go. I know it's not good guidance for you, but we got to kind of just have to see how things play out. But we're prepared to start with share repurchases on Wednesday and just monitor the economic conditions.

我們只是邊玩邊玩。我知道這對你來說不是一個好的指導，但我們只需要看看事情會如何發展。但我們準備從週三開始回購股票，並監測經濟狀況。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy），加拿大皇家銀行。

Hi, Daryl.

你好，達裡爾。

Hey, Gerard. How're you doing?

嘿，傑拉德。你好嗎？

Good. Thank you. Can you give us some color on your insights regarding the regulatory environment? We're reading a lot about the regulators look to ease up, if you will, on some of the regulatory requirements.

好的。謝謝。您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您對監管環境的見解？我們讀到了很多關於監管機構希望放鬆一些監管要求的文章。

There's a lot of talk about the supplementary leverage ratio and the leverage ratio. But they seem to pertain to our biggest banks, the trillionaire banks. Are you seeing anything on the horizon that would be very beneficial to the regional banks like yourself from the regulatory stuff that you're hearing and seeing?

關於補充槓桿率和槓桿率的討論很多。但它們似乎與我們最大的銀行、兆富翁銀行有關。從您所聽到和看到的監管內容來看，您是否看到了對像您這樣的地區性銀行非常有利的趨勢？

Yeah, I just want to start with, it really doesn't matter to us who's actually in DC in the administration, Republican or Democrat. We perform and do well. You look at our People's acquisition that was done under the Biden administration. So we can do business either way.

是的，我首先想說的是，對我們來說，誰在華盛頓執政，是共和黨人還是民主黨人，其實並不重要。我們表現出色。你看看拜登政府時期我們人民的收購。因此無論哪種方式我們都可以做生意。

From a regulatory perspective, I would tell you, the people that are getting in the seats tend to be much more focused on having our industry help grow the economy and really have an impact positively to it. You're seeing that with acting chair in the FDIC.

從監管角度來看，我想告訴你，獲得這些席位的人往往更關注我們的行業如何幫助經濟成長，並真正對經濟產生積極影響。您在擔任聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 代理主席時就看到了這一點。

He actually came out this past week. He actually is pulling back on some of the RRP stuff. We're in the first wave, so we actually had this stuff already prepared and completed. And we're pulling back on that. So that's a positive. But Head of Supervision Bowman is really looking at tailoring. I think that's a really good positive for us. I think that would be good.

他其實是上週才出櫃的。他實際上正在撤回一些 RRP 產品。我們處於第一波，因此我們實際上已經準備好並完成了這些東西。我們正在撤回這項舉措。這是積極的。但主管監督鮑曼真正關注的是裁縫師。我認為這對我們來說確實是一件好事。我認為那會很好。

OCC and CFPB are also, I think, very positive. So I think, generally, they're more pro-business, more trying to grow the economy. And you could see some tweaks around the Tier 1 leverage ratio, the SLR, stress testing, Basel III, LCR, long-term debt, RRP.

我認為，OCC 和 CFPB 也非常積極。所以我認為，整體而言，他們更支持商業，更努力地發展經濟。您還可以看到一級槓桿率、SLR、壓力測試、巴塞爾協議 III、LCR、長期債務、RRP 等方面的一些調整。

And hopefully, maybe they pull back on all the regulatory reporting. We've produced thousands of reports to the government officials. And I'm sure we can weed out some of that information as well. So -- but I think it's an opportunity-rich environment to actually make some improvements and be more efficient.

希望他們能夠撤回所有監管報告。我們已經向政府官員提交了數千份報告。我相信我們也可以剔除其中的一些資訊。所以——但我認為這裡是一個充滿機會的環境，可以真正做出一些改進並提高效率。

Very good. Thank you. And then as a follow-up to your comment about loan growth and how the commercial real estate portfolio is making it more challenging, can you dive into that a little further? Is it your choice to kind of continue to shrink it? Or is there just not -- your customers are paying off, and you can't grow it? What's some of the color behind the challenges within the commercial real estate portfolio?

非常好。謝謝。然後，作為您關於貸款成長以及商業房地產投資組合如何使其更具挑戰性的評論的後續，您能否進一步深入探討？您是否選擇繼續縮小它？或者只是沒有——您的客戶正在付款，而您卻無法增加收入？商業房地產投資組合面臨的挑戰背後隱藏哪些因素？

So what we've seen in the last quarter or two is that there's a lot more active lenders in this space. So you have a lot more people providing loan capital. And if you look at it, it's very competitive. So people are already being very aggressive on pricing and on structure.

因此，我們在過去一兩個季度看到，這個領域活躍的貸款機構增加了很多。因此，有更多的人提供貸款資本。如果你看一下，你會發現競爭非常激烈。因此人們在定價和結構方面已經非常積極。

And at M&T, we're very disciplined in how we make loans and put things on our balance sheet. And we're doing our best to support our customers and all that. But at the end of the day, we aren't going to put loans on that aren't structured properly from that perspective.

在 M&T，我們對貸款發放和資產負債表的編制非常嚴格。我們正在盡最大努力為客戶提供支援。但最終，從這個角度來看，我們不會發放結構不合理的貸款。

In the first quarter, when you look at the payoffs that we received, it was a much higher amount than what we expected. About half of them were known maturities that were coming through in the first quarter. Another 10% was just pulling forward maturities in later '25. But 40% was really pulling in maturities from '26 and beyond. And that's really where there's a lot of impact going on from that perspective.

在第一季度，當你看到我們收到的回報時，你會發現它比我們預期的要高得多。其中約有一半是已知到期且將在第一季到期的債券。另外 10% 只是將 25 年後期的到期日提前。但 40% 實際上是從 1926 年及以後開始到期的。從這個角度來看，這確實會產生很大的影響。

And given that [downcrease], it's not all bad. We've been able to remix our portfolio. So we actually have a lot less office exposure, which is good. We're also reducing a lot of the smaller credits, less than $5 million. And we're actually growing areas that we want to grow like multifamily and industrial. So it's not all bad.

考慮到[下降]，情況並非全是壞事。我們已經能夠重新組合我們的投資組合。因此，我們在辦公室的曝光率實際上要低得多，這是一件好事。我們也削減了大量小額信貸，金額低於 500 萬美元。我們實際上正在發展我們想要發展的領域，例如多戶住宅和工業。所以這也不全然是壞事。

I would say the pipeline is building, and we feel good that it will kind of level out over the next couple of quarters and start to grow. And we just continue to do that. I mean, at the end of the day, we'll have a smaller balance sheet and probably just repurchase back more stock.

我想說的是，管道正在建設中，我們感覺很好，它將在接下來的幾個季度中趨於平穩並開始成長。我們將繼續這樣做。我的意思是，到最後，我們的資產負債表將會變小，可能只會回購更多股票。

And, Daryl, just quickly on those maturities that were being pulled forward in '25 and '26 that were paid off, was that due to that competition that you referenced?

達裡爾，您能快速地問一下，25 年和 26 年提前還清的那些到期債務，是不是由於您提到的競爭造成的？

Part of that was competition. Some of it was some of our REIT customers decided to prepay early and all that. It was mixed.

其中一部分是競爭。部分原因是我們的一些房地產投資信託基金客戶決定提前預付款等等。它是混合的。

Okay, good. Thank you.

好的，很好。謝謝。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Good morning. You guys added a little bit to the loan loss reserves, even though the loans were down and the credit metrics were better. Can you just talk about how you tweak your macro outlook to support the higher reserves?

早安.儘管貸款減少了，信貸指標也好多了，但你們還是增加了一點貸款損失準備。您能否談談如何調整宏觀前景以支援更高的儲備？

Yeah, we did tweak it just because of what's going on in the marketplace, Matt. I think that's correct. Our provision probably would have been close to [110], if we did not have the tweaks. But we just wanted to wait the lower -- we have three scenarios. The scenario that has the downward pressure, we just increased that proportionately more so that you have higher unemployment rates and you have lower GDP rates.

是的，我們確實根據市場上發生的事情對其進行了調整，馬特。我認為這是正確的。如果我們沒有進行這些調整，我們的供給可能已經接近[110]。但我們只是想等待更低的——我們有三種情況。對於有下行壓力的情況，我們只是按比例增加了這個比例，導致失業率上升，GDP 成長率下降。

We didn't have it go into a recession, but we had it close just above that. It was 0.1% positive. So we were reflecting it. Obviously, if we do go into a recession, we'll probably would continue to add to the reserves appropriately as needed. But we just felt comfortable that that was the right thing to do, given everything that's going on and uncertainty in the marketplace.

我們並沒有陷入衰退，但已經接近衰退了。陽性率為 0.1%。所以我們正在反思它。顯然，如果我們確實陷入經濟衰退，我們可能會根據需要繼續適當增加儲備。但考慮到目前發生的一切以及市場的不確定性，我們只是覺得這是正確的做法。

Okay. That's helpful. And then separately, maybe I missed it, but what are the interest rate assumptions that you have within your net interest income guide? And just remind us your sensitivity to rate changes on both the short and long end of the curve? Thank you.

好的。這很有幫助。然後另外，也許我錯過了，但是您的淨利息收入指南中的利率假設是什麼？請提醒我們一下您對曲線短端和長端利率變動的敏感度是多少？謝謝。

Yeah. So our ALCO team and treasury has been working hard because rates keep changing and the curve keeps changing. So it's a very dynamic environment, for sure. What we have as our baseline with our forecast has four drops, the last one being in December, which isn't very significant. And we have the yield curve that we had on April 7, which is a relatively lower yield curve from that.

是的。因此，我們的 ALCO 團隊和財務部門一直在努力工作，因為利率不斷變化，曲線也不斷變化。所以這肯定是一個非常活躍的環境。我們的預測基準是四次下降，最後一次下降發生在 12 月，但幅度並不大。我們擁有 4 月 7 日的殖利率曲線，該曲線相對較低。

The way I would look at it, there's a lot of puts and takes here. From a net interest margin perspective, just high level, if rates on the curve continue to flatten out, if they go down, that would be a negative for margin. As we get more deposits, like Ken asked earlier, that could be good for NII, but maybe lower for margin if we deploy that in our liquidity portfolio.

在我看來，這裡有很多得失。從淨利差角度來看，如果曲線利率繼續趨於平緩，處於高水平，那麼對息差來說就是負面的。正如 Ken 之前所問的，隨著我們獲得更多存款，這可能對 NII 有利，但如果我們將其部署到流動性投資組合中，保證金可能會更低。

For higher margin, I'd say, obviously, a steeper curve would be helpful. And if we continue to maybe start to grow our loan book again, when CRE starts to come online, I think that would be possible and all that. So there's a lot of puts and takes there.

為了獲得更高的利潤，我想說，顯然更陡的曲線會有所幫助。如果我們繼續增加貸款金額，當 CRE 開始上線時，我認為這一切都是可能的。因此，這其中存在著許多得失。

That said, overall, I feel really good with margin trajectory, mid- to high 3.60s. Think overall profitability in the company is going to be really [strong], really strong capital generation. So I think we feel really good, and we can weather whatever the economy gives us, I think, very well.

話雖如此，總體而言，我對利潤軌跡感到非常滿意，在 3.60 秒中高位。我認為公司的整體獲利能力將會非常強勁，資本創造能力也會非常強勁。所以我認為我們感覺非常好，而且我認為我們可以很好地抵禦經濟給我們的一切影響。

Okay. And then just to summarize that, though, like as we think about the net interest income dollars, are you asset sensitive? Are you relatively neutral? Again, all things else being equal, but if rates are a little bit lower than you expect, how does that impact the dollars? Just calling a parallel shift down to keep it simple. Thanks.

好的。然後總結一下，當我們考慮淨利息收入時，您是否對資產敏感？您是相對中立的嗎？同樣，在其他所有條件相同的情況下，如果利率比你預期的略低，這會對美元產生什麼影響？只需調用平行向下移動即可保持簡單。謝謝。

Yeah. So our short end, we are definitely pretty neutral. It really does not impact us much one way or the other what direction the Fed does on rates. I think we're relatively good. And you saw our deposit betas are 50%-plus. So they're reacting like we thought they would react. So all that is coming in really well.

是的。因此，我們的短期目標是絕對保持中立。聯準會對利率採取何種方向的政策實際上不會對我們造成太大影響。我認為我們做得相對較好。您會發現我們的存款貝塔值超過 50%。所以他們的反應正如我們所料。所以一切都進展順利。

With the yield curve flattening, the -- we still have positive roll-up. So like in the consumer loan portfolio, it's probably repricing right now maybe 100 to 150 basis points more. If rates flatten down, it's going to still reprice positive, but maybe only 50 basis points better. So we still get the benefit. It's just less of a benefit.

隨著殖利率曲線趨於平緩，我們仍然有正向的累積。因此，就像在消費貸款組合中一樣，它現在的重新定價可能要高出 100 到 150 個基點。如果利率趨於平穩，其價格仍將重新回到正值，但可能只會上漲 50 個基點。所以我們仍然可以獲得好處。只是好處不多。

I think the thing to really emphasize, though, is we have a lot of knowns in our balance sheet, which kind of gives us the comfort we're going to have strong margin and strong NII. We know for a fact that we have $4 billion of securities coming off at a yield of 3.5%. Depending on what the yield curve looks like, it's going to reprice higher, maybe 4.5%, maybe 5.5%, but it's going up.

不過，我認為真正需要強調的是，我們的資產負債表中有很多已知訊息，這讓我們確信我們將擁有強勁的利潤率和強勁的 NII。我們知道，我們有價值 40 億美元的證券，收益率為 3.5%。根據殖利率曲線的情況，它將會重新定價，可能是 4.5%，可能是 5.5%，但它會上升。

Consumer loans I just talked about, that's going to continue to reprice higher. Strong beta -- deposit beta is good. And then on the swap book, we know for a fact that our swap book is going to go up and accrete more over time up to 30 basis points. We should be in the [3.70s] by the end of the year and early '26.

我剛才談到的消費貸款，其價格將會繼續走高。強貝塔－存款貝塔很好。然後在掉期帳簿上，我們確實知道我們的掉期帳簿將會上升，並且隨著時間的推移會累積到 30 個基點。到今年年底和26年初，我們的成績應該可以達到[3.70]。

So all those are known, and all those are going to happen. And that's baked into our numbers and all that. So that gives us confidence that we're going to perform well and then tweaking on the edges either way if we're going to outperform or maybe be a little bit less. But net-net, overall, earnings will be strong.

所有這些都是已知的，而且所有這些都將會發生。這已經融入我們的數據和所有內容。因此，這給了我們信心，相信我們將會表現良好，然後我們會在各個方面進行調整，看看我們是否能夠表現得更好或更差一些。但整體而言，獲利將會很強勁。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning, Daryl. Just a follow-up on your point on the security side. Just given that the long end of the curve has been so volatile, how are you thinking about putting on more securities here? And what kind of duration would you be willing to take?

嗨，早上好，達裡爾。我只是想跟進一下您在安全方面的觀點。鑑於長期曲線一直如此波動，您如何考慮在此增持更多證券？您願意花多長時間？

Yeah. So we are very disciplined in how we're doing this. We're in it for the long term. It's kind of how we approach it. So our strategies really haven't changed.

是的。因此，我們在做這件事情時非常自律。我們會長期致力於此。這就是我們的處理方式。所以我們的策略其實沒有改變。

We are investing -- obviously, we cleansed our portfolio last year. So all we have is government-backed securities in our portfolio, whether they're treasuries, agencies, or municipalities. We don't have any non-agency stuff in the portfolio. So it's all liquid, $35 billion.

我們正在投資——顯然，我們去年清理了我們的投資組合。因此，我們的投資組合中只有政府支持的證券，無論是國債、機構債券或市政債券。我們的投資組合中沒有任何非代理項目。所以這些資金都是流動資金，350 億美元。

We've been buying -- about half of our purchases are basically nonconvex. So we're buying treasuries and CMBS in the marketplace. Obviously, we don't have the attractive yields that you do in the CMBS. But you know you're going to keep them over the -- [overall] maturity. And then the other half has been going into shorter CMOs and seasoned MBS.

我們一直在購買——大約一半的購買基本上是非凸的。因此我們在市場上購買國債和商業抵押貸款支持證券 (CMBS)。顯然，我們的收益率並不像商業抵押貸款支持證券 (CMBS) 那樣有吸引力。但你知道你會保留它們直至其成熟。另一半則轉向較短的 CMO 和經驗豐富的 MBS。

Our average duration, if you go back maybe two years ago, we were [4]. We're now in the [3.5] range, and we stayed in the [3.5] range and feel really good about how we're positioned. It's a portfolio for liquidity, and we're going to continue to use it for that if we need it.

我們的平均持續時間，如果你回顧大約兩年前，我們[4]。我們現在處於3.5的範圍內，我們保持在3.5的範圍內，對我們的排名感覺非常好。這是一個流動性投資組合，如果需要的話，我們將繼續使用它。

Got it. And maybe on loan growth -- or actually, the other side of the loan growth question is credit. And you've had some nice loan growth in C&I over the past few quarters. I think C&I is up 7% year on year, and that's clearly well above peers.

知道了。也許是貸款成長——或者實際上，貸款成長問題的另一面是信貸。過去幾個季度，商業和工業領域的貸款成長良好。我認為 C&I 年成長 7%，這顯然遠高於同行。

So how are you thinking about the credit performance of that book if we get a weakening macro environment from here? And I ask because I noticed that the declines in CRE criticized were actually in line with last quarter, but then you had some offsets on the C&I side.

那麼，如果我們從現在開始面臨宏觀環境的疲軟，您如何看待這本書的信用表現？我之所以問這個問題，是因為我注意到，受到批評的 CRE 下降實際上與上一季一致，但在 C&I 方面有一些抵消。

Yeah. Our CRE portfolio has been performing really well. We've stress-tested, looked at it backwards and forwards, and feel really good on the trajectory of that portfolio. That said, we have maybe a little bit of exposure in the greater DC area, a couple of hundred million, nothing significant, but things to watch out for in certain areas.

是的。我們的 CRE 投資組合表現非常出色。我們進行了壓力測試，反覆審視，對投資組合的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。話雖如此，我們可能在華盛頓特區有一點點曝光，幾億，沒有什麼重大的，但在某些地區需要注意的事情。

But net-net, overall, we feel CRE is going to perform and continue to perform very, very well from that perspective. Our C&I went up. It was really just idiosyncratic one customer, a large credit, a couple of hundred million, basically had some issues with a roll-up strategy for the big trucks that you see on the road and all that. And we think that's going to play out positively as the year goes. So we don't think there's any losses there.

但從這個角度來看，總體而言，我們認為 CRE 將會表現得非常非常好，並且會繼續表現得非常非常好。我們的 C&I 上升了。這實際上只是一個特殊的客戶，一筆數億美元的大額信貸，基本上對你在路上看到的大卡車的匯總策略有一些問題。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，這將會產生正面的影響。所以我們認為那裡沒有任何損失。

So net-net, overall, we still think that we will continue to lower our criticized throughout the year, not at the pace that we did in '24, but still at a measured pace. If things get really bad in the economy, which I don't think is going to happen, but if they do, then we can adjust accordingly. But right now, I think we're just seeing a slowdown for the most part.

因此，總體而言，我們仍然認為，我們將在全年繼續降低批評率，雖然速度不會像 24 年那樣，但仍會保持一定的步伐。如果經濟狀況真的變得糟糕，我認為這不會發生，但如果發生了，那麼我們可以做出相應的調整。但目前，我認為我們總體上只是看到了經濟放緩。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰·潘卡里（John Pancari），Evercore ISI。

Morning, Daryl.

早安，達裡爾。

Morning, John.

早安，約翰。

Just back to the loan growth. I know you gave some good color on the commercial real estate balances that are coming down and also seeing some growth selectively in C&I.

回到貸款成長問題。我知道您對商業房地產餘額下降做出了積極的評價，也看到了商業和工業領域的選擇性成長。

Within that average loan guidance of $135 billion to $137 billion, can you talk to us maybe -- can you break down the incremental CRE decline that you expect and where you expect that could bottom just given what you're seeing right now? And then perhaps maybe help us with how we should think about the pace of C&I loan growth as we look out through the remainder of the year? Thanks.

在 1,350 億美元至 1,370 億美元的平均貸款指引範圍內，您能否與我們談談——您能否細分一下您預期的增量 CRE 下降幅度，以及根據您目前看到的情況，您預計下降幅度可能在哪裡觸底？那麼，也許可以幫助我們思考一下，在今年剩餘時間內，我們該如何看待 C&I 貸款的成長速度？謝謝。

Yeah. So we expect right now our CRE portfolio, the bottom out on an average basis, probably by the fourth quarter. We think that pipeline is going to start to build -- it's building now. And it just has to go through and basically get on the books.

是的。因此，我們目前預計，我們的 CRE 投資組合的平均水準將觸底，可能在第四季。我們認為管道即將開始建設——現在正在建設中。它必須經過審核並記錄在案。

A lot of the new production on the pipeline is construction. So our construction loans won't actually start to fund up meaningfully for probably 12 to 15 months from that standpoint. But CRE is, I think, going to work its way through and start to grow momentum and grow positively.

管道上的許多新產品都是在建設中。因此，從這個角度來看，我們的建築貸款實際上可能在 12 到 15 個月內都不會開始有意義地籌集資金。但我認為，CRE 將會順利發展並開始獲得成長動力和正面成長。

For us, it's all about making sure it's -- we're serving client selection, the best customers out in the marketplace, making sure that the loans are structured really well. That helped us through some down periods. We won't lose that. So structure is really important to us. And we will compete on price if everything else falls into place from that perspective. So we'll just see.

對我們來說，一切都是為了確保——我們服務的客戶是市場上最好的客戶，確保貸款結構良好。這幫助我們度過了一些低迷時期。我們不會失去它。所以結構對我們來說非常重要。如果從這個角度來看其他一切都順利的話，我們將在價格上競爭。所以我們拭目以待。

But our C&I book portfolio, I think, is gaining momentum. Consumer is going really well. And we're -- actually we're going to try to grow a little bit in residential mortgage as well to help offset it. That said, portfolio -- we'll just see how it plays out overall.

但我認為，我們的 C&I 圖書組合正在蓬勃發展。消費者表現非常好。實際上，我們也將嘗試增加一點住宅抵押貸款，以幫助抵消這種影響。話雖如此，我們只需看看投資組合的整體表現如何。

But we're doing everything we can, but we're going to make sure we emphasize and really put loans on our books that we know won't be issues in the next couple of years and that will be good long-term assets for us.

但我們正在竭盡所能，但我們將確保我們強調並真正將我們知道在未來幾年不會成為問題的貸款記入我們的賬簿，這對我們來說將是良好的長期資產。

Okay. Great. And then it sounds like it's probably not the case, but are you seeing -- on that loan topic -- are you seeing any line utilization or line drawdowns out of precautionary concerns by borrowers given the recessionary environment? Any evidence of that at this point?

好的。偉大的。然後聽起來可能並非如此，但是您是否看到 - 關於貸款主題 - 考慮到經濟衰退環境，您是否看到借款人出於預防性考慮而使用信用額度或減少信用額度？目前有任何證據嗎？

No, not really. I mean, you look at the utilization this past quarter. Commercial is down -- about -- down about 1%. And really nothing hit our screens that showed any big draws or anything from that. And it's not like COVID where it was having draws every day. You saw your capital ratios come down.

不，不是真的。我的意思是，你看看上個季度的使用率。商業下降了約 1%。但實際上，我們的螢幕上並沒有顯示任何大抽獎或其他類似的東西。而且它不像 COVID 那樣每天都有抽籤。您會看到您的資本比率下降了。

It's not like that at all. There's really almost no additional activity. Behaviors have been pretty consistent, to be honest with you, than what we went through in the last down period with COVID.

根本不是那樣的。實際上幾乎沒有任何額外的活動。說實話，與我們在上次 COVID 低迷時期所經歷的行為相比，我們的行為一直非常一致。

Right. Well, that's good to hear. And then I'm sorry, just one more on deposits. It looks like you saw some pretty good end-of-period growth where balances were above the average and particularly in noninterest-bearing. Any read into that, or should we pay attention more so to the average deposit trajectory?

正確的。嗯，聽到這個消息真好。抱歉，我再問一個關於存款的問題。看起來你看到了一些相當不錯的期末成長，其中餘額高於平均水平，特別是無息餘額。對此有任何解讀嗎，或者我們應該更加關注平均存款軌跡？

The first quarter is always a low seasonal quarter for us. So it always drops in January, February, and starts to build back in March. You have to also remember, we have a lot of escrow deposits because of our mortgage servicing businesses that we have. So we tend to gain through the first half of the month, and then it kind of drops off in the second half of the month.

對我們來說，第一季始終是個淡季。因此，它總是在一月、二月下降，並在三月開始回升。您還必須記住，由於我們有抵押貸款服務業務，因此我們有很多託管存款。因此，我們往往在上半月獲得收益，然後在下半月下降。

And our ICS business and trust has a lot of activity, and that kind of comes and goes depending on what we have there. And we had some ICS deposits on the balance sheet at the end of the quarter as well. But that's all good funding to have, and it helps us manage our balance sheet and helps with NII overall.

我們的 ICS 業務和信託活動很多，這些活動會根據我們在那裡擁有的東西而來或去。並且在本季末，我們的資產負債表上也有一些 ICS 存款。但這些都是很好的資金，它可以幫助我們管理資產負債表，並有助於整體的NII。

Okay, great. Thanks, Daryl.

好的，太好了。謝謝，達裡爾。

Christopher Spahr, Wells Fargo.

克里斯多福‧斯帕爾，富國銀行。

Hi. Good morning. Thanks. Just a quick question. On long-term debt, just what is your perspective on like with sluggish loan growth? And I guess, you seem to be somewhat optimistic on deposits, like long-term loan-to-deposit ratio. And where do you see long-term debt kind of settling out?

你好。早安.謝謝。這只是一個簡單的問題。關於長期債務，您對貸款成長緩慢的情況有何看法？我想，您似乎對存款有些樂觀，例如長期貸款與存款比率。您認為長期債務將如何解決？

So our long-term debt, we are really focused on trying to reduce kind of broker deposits, Federal Home Loan Bank advances. I think our broker deposits are around $7 billion or $8 billion right now. So they're down from the peak of a 1, 1.5 years ago, and if you look at Federal Home Loan Bank advances at only $1 billion or $2 billion. So I think we're pretty much through that.

因此，對於我們的長期債務，我們真正關注的是減少經紀人存款和聯邦房屋貸款銀行的預付款。我認為我們經紀人的存款目前約為 70 億美元或 80 億美元。因此，它們已經從一年或一年半前的高峰下降了，如果你看看聯邦住房貸款銀行的預付款，現在只有 10 億美元或 20 億美元。所以我認為我們已經基本完成了。

Long-term debt we'll issue as needed, depending on what our customer growth is and what our loan growth is, all that being said. So we'll access it accordingly. I think there's some sub-debt down the road in the next year or so that we might have to issue it down to get our total capital ratios where they need to be. But net-net, overall, we'll do long debt when it makes sense.

我們將根據需要發行長期債務，這取決於我們的客戶成長和貸款成長。因此我們將採取相應的措施。我認為，在未來一年左右，我們可能必須發行一些次級債務，以使我們的總資本比率達到所需的水平。但整體而言，當情況合理時，我們會做多債務。

We've had spreads come in for us versus our peers, relatively well this past year or so. Obviously, with some volatility in the marketplace, spreads have gapped out. But it's consistent with everybody else in the marketplace from that point. And you can get deals done now just at a higher cost and all that. And right now, we really don't need a lot of funding. Our liquidity is really strong.

過去一年左右，我們與同行相比，利差相對較大。顯然，由於市場出現一些波動，利差已經出現跳空。但從那時起，它與市場上的其他所有人保持一致。現在你就可以達成交易，只是成本更高而已。而現在，我們確實不需要大量資金。我們的流動性確實很強。

Okay. Thank you. And as a follow-up on the expenses and what degree of flexibility on your guide range, like there's low-hanging fruit with some specific examples of your simplification efforts and maybe also then some potential settings on regulation? Thank you.

好的。謝謝。作為對費用的後續關注，以及您的指導範圍的靈活性程度，例如，有一些您簡化努力的具體例子，也許還有一些潛在的監管設定？謝謝。

I would say for the last couple of years that I've been part of M&T, our businesses and leaders have done a great job controlling their expenses. And this year is no exception to that. They're doing a great job for that.

我想說，在過去的幾年裡，我一直是 M&T 的一員，我們的企業和領導在控制開支方面做得很好。今年也不例外。他們在這方面做得很好。

If we actually did get into a bad recession period where revenue was really challenged, there are things we could do to pull on expenses. But right now, I'm still thinking we're going to drive positive operating leverage for the year. I think we still have a shot at that, still growing NII and fees. And we still have a modest increase on the expense side.

如果我們確實陷入嚴重的經濟衰退時期，收入面臨巨大挑戰，我們可以採取一些措施來控制開支。但現在，我仍然認為我們今年將實現積極的經營槓桿。我認為我們仍然有機會實現這一目標，繼續增加國家資訊基礎設施和費用。我們的支出方面仍有適度成長。

That said, if you look at our strategic projects, there are some strategic projects that we have to just get finished because we've been doing them for so long. So like the [GL], our data centers, cyber and our commercial [CDA] program, all those need to finish out. We're really close on a lot of these and should get those done.

話雖如此，如果你看看我們的策略項目，你會發現有些戰略項目我們必須完成，因為我們已經做了很長時間了。因此，像 [GL]、我們的資料中心、網路和商業 [CDA] 計劃一樣，所有這些都需要完成。我們在很多方面都已經非常接近目標，應該能夠完成。

The other ones are more newer. So if you really had to, you could slow some of that down from an expense perspective. We're also really focusing and working on how we can just deliver our products and services more efficiently in the back office.

其餘的都比較新。因此，如果確實需要，您可以從費用角度放慢一些速度。我們也真正關注並致力於如何在後台更有效地提供我們的產品和服務。

So I think you'll see a lot of realignment, some automation, and some workforce strategies potentially needed if we had to do something like that. So net-net, overall, I think we have flexibility on expenses, but really don't believe we have to pull the trigger now, still have a shooting for positive operating leverage.

因此，我認為，如果我們必須做這樣的事情，你會看到大量的調整、一些自動化以及一些可能需要的勞動力策略。因此，總體而言，我認為我們在支出方面具有靈活性，但真的不認為我們現在必須採取行動，我們仍然有機會實現積極的經營槓桿。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

彼得溫特（Peter Winter），地方檢察官戴維森。

Thanks. Good morning. Daryl, I was just wondering, given the increase in uncertainty, are there any loan portfolios maybe you're watching a little bit more closely? Or any portfolios causing you to tighten underwriting standards a little more?

謝謝。早安.達裡爾，我只是想知道，鑑於不確定性的增加，您是否正在更密切地關注某些貸款組合？或者是否有任何投資組合導致您進一步收緊承保標準？

Yeah. There is a list of portfolios, obviously, that we are looking for and monitoring really well. If you look at it, retail trade is one, manufacturing -- you look at anything from construction, wholesale trade. So all those tend to be areas that we're watching very closely. From DOGE and the USAID perspective, we have seen some stress in our government contractors. Actually, we've had two smaller credits get downgraded in those areas.

是的。顯然，我們正在尋找並密切監控一系列投資組合。如果你看一下，零售貿易是其中之一，製造業——你可以看到建築業、批發貿易等任何東西。因此，所有這些都是我們密切關注的領域。從 DOGE 和 USAID 的角度來看，我們看到政府承包商面臨一些壓力。事實上，我們在這些地區已經有兩家規模較小的銀行的信用評等被下調。

And we're also monitoring our nonprofit portfolio. Nonprofits, we've had one that got downgraded. It focused especially on immigration and all that. So areas that -- where funding is adjusted for and how they're reacting to it could have some impact there.

我們也在監控我們的非營利投資組合。非營利組織，我們有一個被降級了。它特別關注移民問題和所有相關問題。因此，調整資金的領域以及他們對此的反應可能會產生一些影響。

That said, none of that is really meaningful to date that we've seen. But we are monitoring all these portfolios very closely, and we'll just see how the economy plays out.

話雖如此，迄今為止我們所看到的一切都沒有真正的意義。但我們正在密切關注所有這些投資組合，看看經濟將如何發展。

Got it. And just one housekeeping on the margin. I just want to clarify, you said that the exit rate should be around [3.70] this year. Is that correct?

知道了。邊緣處僅需進行一次家務管理。我只是想澄清一下，您說今年的退出率應該在 [3.70] 左右。對嗎？

No, I did not say that. I said that we are guiding for mid-3.60s to high 3.60s and that we have a good upward trajectory on our net interest margin.

不，我沒有這麼說。我說過，我們預期淨利差將在 3.60% 左右至 3.60% 左右之間，我們的淨利差呈現良好的上升趨勢。

Okay. Thanks, Daryl.

好的。謝謝，達裡爾。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Hi there. Yes, hi. Sorry, they just took away our physical phones. And so old people like me have to figure out how to unmute more quickly.

你好呀。是的，你好。抱歉，他們只是拿走了我們的實體手機。因此，像我這樣的老人必須想辦法更快地取消靜音。

Just a few follow-up questions, Daryl. So clearly, there are near-term sort of headwinds to growth. But as we think about everything that you described your balance sheet to be positioned and everything that you've said about growth, it does feel like -- again, just a follow-up to the questions on the exit rate, it does feel like the NII trajectory should be upward from here, if we just sort of dissect your guide and what you reported?

只是幾個後續問題，達裡爾。因此，很顯然，短期內經濟成長面臨一些阻力。但是，當我們思考您所描述的資產負債表的定位以及您所說的有關增長的一切時，我們確實感覺——再次，只是對退出率問題的跟進，如果我們只是剖析一下您的指南和您所報告的內容，我們確實感覺 NII 軌跡應該從現在開始向上？

Because you'll get the day count back in the second quarter, then it feels like we'll get to the [one-eighths] -- we have to get to the [one-eighths] for the low end of your guidance to be achieved. And if you have a smaller balance sheet that would imply a [3.70s] exit NIM as well?

因為你會在第二季度得到天數，然後感覺我們會達到 [八分之一] - 我們必須達到 [八分之一] 才能達到你指導的低端。如果你的資產負債表較小，這是否也意味著退出淨利息收益率為 [3.70 秒]？

Yeah. I mean, we talked earlier -- one of the analysts was talking about what happens with -- what interest rate environment you have, what the yield curve is, what the Fed actions really do, and also what the size of the balance sheet, both on the loan and deposit side. There's just a lot of puts and takes out there. Is it possible we can get in the [3.70s]? Yes, but it's not in our base forecast right now.

是的。我的意思是，我們之前談過——其中一位分析師正在談論會發生什麼——你所處的利率環境是什麼樣的，收益率曲線是什麼樣的，美聯儲的行動實際上產生了什麼影響，以及貸款和存款方面的資產負債表規模是多少。那裡有很多東西可以拿走。我們能進入[3.70秒]？是的，但它目前不在我們的基本預測中。

We're basically just trying to balance what we see today with all the risks and uncertainty we have in the marketplace. And if you give me a rate scenario, I'll give you my best estimate of what that rate scenario is from a margin perspective from that. I think your NII comment is positive. And I think that we -- NII should continue to move in an upward direction. I think that's right.

我們基本上只是試圖平衡我們今天所看到的情況與我們在市場上所面臨的所有風險和不確定性。如果您給我一個利率情景，我會從保證金角度對該利率情景做出最佳估計。我認為您的 NII 評論是正面的。我認為我們——NII 應該繼續朝著上升的方向發展。我認為那是對的。

Fair enough. We've gotten whipsawed by the curve and the [foray curve], for sure. And then a follow-up question. First is, if you could tell us in sort of in the CECL model, what your unemployment assumption is underpinning your current reserve?

很公平。毫無疑問，我們被曲線和[進軍曲線]所困擾。然後是一個後續問題。首先，如果您能告訴我們，在 CECL 模型中，您的失業假設是什麼支撐著您目前的儲備？

And then as a follow-up, somewhat related question, you are participating in the stress test this year. You did opt in. I'm wondering, since the Fed had put out the -- their own language and their own press release indicating that changes to administrative law is requiring them to reexamine the test itself, have you noticed any changes in the process yet in terms of the stress test, in terms of more transparency, more feedback?

然後作為後續的、有點相關的問題，您今年將參加壓力測試。您確實選擇加入。我想知道，自從聯準會發布自己的語言和新聞稿表明行政法的變化要求他們重新審查測試本身以來，您是否注意到壓力測試過程中有任何變化，在透明度更高、反饋更多方面？

And additionally, does the -- if you receive a smaller or a lower stress capital buffer, does that change the way you're also thinking about capital allocation in the go-forward?

此外，如果您收到較小或較低的壓力資本緩衝，這是否會改變您對未來資本配置的思考方式？

Yeah. Let me start with the stress testing one. We submitted our information at the end of March, early April. And we really have not heard anything from the Fed. It's kind of a normal year from a processing perspective. At least to date, that is what we've seen. We are optimistic, obviously, that to opt in, we thought we would have a lower stress capital buffer. We'll see if we're correct with that and all that.

是的。讓我從壓力測試開始。我們在三月底四月初提交了資訊。我們確實沒有聽到聯準會的任何消息。從處理角度來看，這是正常的一年。至少到目前為止，我們看到的是這樣的。顯然，我們很樂觀，認為選擇加入後，我們的壓力資本緩衝會較低。我們將看看我們的說法是否正確。

For us, I think it's just is meaningful that we can continue to drive that. Last year, we were one of three banks out of 30 that we're able to have a decrease. We went down [two-tenths], but we're still at the higher end of our stress capital buffer versus most of our peers in the industry.

對我們來說，我認為繼續推動這一點是有意義的。去年，我們是 30 家能夠實現降息的銀行之一。我們下降了 [十分之二]，但與業內大多數同行相比，我們的壓力資本緩衝仍處於較高水平。

So we're just trying to see if our balance sheet, basically de-risking what we have, is working and moving closer to the middle or maybe into the early or maybe top quartile or whatever of our peer group. So that's really what we're trying to do there. Obviously, other constituencies can look at that and can weigh in on what impact that has.

因此，我們只是想看看我們的資產負債表（基本上是降低我們擁有的風險）是否有效，並且是否更接近中間或可能進入早期或上四分位數或同行群體的任何水平。這就是我們真正想做的事。顯然，其他選區也可以看到這一點，並可以評估其影響。

I think long term, Erika, it might make an impact. But I don't think immediately given all the uncertainty in the marketplace, it's going to have much of an impact of what we're trying to do from a capital perspective. We're going to just really monitor to see if we actually go into a recession or not right now.

我認為從長遠來看，埃里卡，它可能會產生影響。但考慮到市場上的所有不確定性，我認為它不會立即對我們從資本角度所做的事情產生很大影響。我們將密切關注，看看我們現在是否真的陷入了經濟衰退。

As far as CECL goes, I would tell you that we're -- our unemployment rate averaged up now to be right around 5%, approximately. So I think that's probably [four-tenths] of a percent higher than what we were -- higher than that before we made the adjustment. It's obviously not a recessionary-type unemployment rate, but it did move up because of the changes that we made.

就 CECL 而言，我想告訴你，我們現在的平均失業率大約是 5% 左右。所以我認為這可能比我們進行調整之前的水平高出百分之四。這顯然不是衰退型的失業率，但由於我們所做的改變，失業率確實上升了。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Thank you. And that does conclude our questions. I would like to now turn the call back over to Steve Wendelboe for closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的疑問就此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給史蒂夫溫德爾博，請他做最後發言。

Again, thank you, all, for participating today. And as always, if clarification is needed, please contact our Investor Relations department at 716-842-5138. Thanks.

再次感謝大家今天的參與。與往常一樣，如果需要澄清，請聯絡我們的投資者關係部門，電話：716-842-5138。謝謝。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's program. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的節目到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。