M&T Bank Corp (MTB) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the M&T Bank third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 M&T Bank 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Brian Klock, Head of Market and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給市場和投資者關係主管 Brian Klock。請繼續。

Thank you, Todd, and good morning. I'd like to thank everyone for participating in M&T's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call both by telephone and through the webcast. If you have not read the earnings release we issued this morning, you may access it, along with the financial tables and schedules, by going to our website, www.mtb.com.

謝謝你，托德，早安。我要感謝大家透過電話和網路直播參加 M&T 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。如果您還沒有閱讀我們今天早上發布的收益報告，您可以訪問我們的網站 www.mtb.com 來獲取該報告以及財務表格和時間表。

Once there, you can click on the Investor Relations link and then on the Events and Presentations link. Closed captioning has also been provided for those following along on the webcast.

到達那裡後，您可以單擊投資者關係鏈接，然後單擊活動和演示鏈接。也為那些關注網路廣播的人提供了隱藏式字幕。

Also, before we start, I'd like to mention that today's presentation may contain forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information are included in today's earnings release materials and in the investor presentation, as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials.

另外，在我們開始之前，我想提一下，今天的演示可能包含前瞻性資訊。有關此資訊的警告性聲明包含在今天的收益發布資料和投資者簡報中，以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他投資者資料中。

The presentation also includes non-GAAP financial measures, as identified in the earnings release and investor presentation. The appropriate reconciliations to GAAP are included in the Appendix. Joining me on the call this morning is M&T's Senior Executive Vice President and CFO, Daryl Bible.

該簡報還包括收益發布和投資者簡報中確定的非公認會計準則財務指標。附錄中包含了與 GAAP 的適當調整。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的是 M&T 的高級執行副總裁兼財務長 Daryl Bible。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Daryl.

現在我想把電話轉給達裡爾。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. As you will hear on today's call, the third-quarter results represent M&T's continued strength through a dynamic economic environment. We continue to support our communities that we serve.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早安。正如您將在今天的電話會議上聽到的那樣，第三季業績代表了 M&T 在充滿活力的經濟環境中的持續實力。我們繼續支持我們所服務的社區。

For the 16th consecutive year, M&T Bank is among the nation's top 10 SBA lenders, ranking number one in Baltimore, Buffalo, Connecticut, Delaware, Syracuse, and Washington, DC. We recently launched the third phase of our (technical difficulty) which will provide $25 million to nonprofits focused on financial inclusion and economic growth across New England, Long Island, and New York's Westchester County.

M&T 銀行連續 16 年躋身全美 10 大 SBA 貸款機構，在巴爾的摩、布法羅、康涅狄格州、特拉華州、錫拉丘茲和華盛頓特區排名第一。我們最近啟動了第三階段（技術難度），將向專注於新英格蘭、長島和紐約威徹斯特縣金融包容性和經濟成長的非營利組織提供 2500 萬美元。

We also recently updated several environmental goals, including offsetting 100% of our electricity use with renewable energy by 2030 and establishing interim reduction targets for scope 1 and 2 emissions.

我們最近也更新了多項環境目標，包括到 2030 年用再生能源抵銷 100% 的用電量，以及製定範圍 1 和範圍 2 排放的臨時減排目標。

Turning to slide 5, our employees and products continue to receive awards from consumer, business, and trade organizations. Turn to slide 7 which shows the results of the third quarter. As noted in this morning's press release, we released our third-quarter results as we continue to make progress on the plans we laid out in January.

轉向幻燈片 5，我們的員工和產品繼續獲得消費者、商業和貿易組織的獎項。請參閱投影片 7，其中顯示了第三季的結果。正如今天早上的新聞稿中所指出的，我們發布了第三季度業績，我們繼續在一月份制定的計劃上取得進展。

There are several successes to highlight. Net interest margin and net interest income grew sequentially as we continue to grow loans while reducing our CRE concentration. In fact, since the fourth quarter of 2023, we have grown average loans by nearly $2 billion while reducing CRE by over $4 billion, and growing C&I and consumer loans.

有幾項成功值得強調。隨著我們繼續增加貸款並降低商業房地產集中度，淨利差和淨利息收入環比增長。事實上，自 2023 年第四季以來，我們的平均貸款增加了近 20 億美元，同時 CRE 減少了超過 40 億美元，工商業和消費貸款也有所增加。

Funding costs was well managed in this quarter, with a 4-basis-point decline in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities. We restarted our share repurchase program in the third quarter and executed $200 million in share repurchases, and grew our CET1 ratio to over 11.5%. Non-interest income reached a high point in the third quarter, if you exclude the prior gains on our two divestitures.

本季融資成本管理良好，帶息負債成本下降4個基點。我們在第三季重新啟動了股票回購計劃，執行了 2 億美元的股票回購，並將我們的 CET1 比率提高到了 11.5% 以上。如果排除我們先前兩次資產剝離帶來的收益，非利息收入在第三季達到了高點。

This was achieved by even considering the foregone fee income from those two sold businesses, demonstrating the resiliency and strength of our diversified business model. Asset quality continued to improve this quarter, with reduction in both non-accrual balances and commercial criticized loans and net charge-offs below the full-year outlook.

即使考慮到這兩家被出售業務所放棄的費用收入，也能實現這一目標，證明了我們多元化業務模式的彈性和實力。本季資產品質持續改善，非應計餘額和商業批評貸款和淨沖銷均低於全年預期。

Now let's look at the specifics for the third quarter. Diluted GAAP earnings per share were $4.02 for the third quarter, improved from $3.73 in the second quarter. Net income for the quarter was $721 million compared to $655 million in the linked quarter, an increase of 10%. M&T's third-quarter results produced an ROA and ROCE of 1.37% and 10.26%, respectively.

現在讓我們來看看第三季的具體情況。第三季稀釋後 GAAP 每股收益為 4.02 美元，高於第二季的 3.73 美元。本季淨利潤為 7.21 億美元，較上一季的 6.55 億美元成長 10%。M&T第三季業績的ROA和ROCE分別為1.37%和10.26%。

The CET1 ratio remained strong, growing at 11.54% at the end of the third quarter, and tangible book value per share grew 5%. Of note, the third quarter included a discrete tax benefit of $14 million for an $0.08 EPS benefit.

CET1比率維持強勁，第三季末成長11.54%，每股有形帳面價值成長5%。值得注意的是，第三季包括 1,400 萬美元的離散稅收優惠，每股收益為 0.08 美元。

Slide 8 includes supplemental reporting of M&T's results on a net operating and tangible basis. M&T's net operating income for the third quarter was $731 million, compared with $665 million in the linked quarter. Diluted net operating earnings per share were $4.08 for the recent quarter, up from $3.79 in the second quarter. Net operating income yielded an ROTA and ROTCE of 1.45% and 15.47% for the recent quarter.

投影片 8 包括 M&T 在淨營運和有形基礎上的結果的補充報告。M&T 第三季的淨營業收入為 7.31 億美元，而上一季的淨營業收入為 6.65 億美元。最近一個季度的稀釋後每股淨營運收益為 4.08 美元，高於第二季的 3.79 美元。最近一個季度的淨營業收入產生的 ROTA 和 ROTCE 分別為 1.45% 和 15.47%。

Next, let's look a little deeper into the underlying trends that generated our third-quarter results. Please turn to slide 9. Taxable equivalent net interest income was $1.74 billion, an increase of $8 million or 1% from the linked quarter. The net interest margin was 3.62%, an increase of 3 basis points from the second quarter.

接下來，讓我們更深入地了解產生第三季業績的基本趨勢。請翻到投影片 9。應稅等值淨利息收入為 17.4 億美元，較上一季增加 800 萬美元，即 1%。淨利差3.62%，較第二季上升3個基點。

The primary drivers of the increase to the margin were a positive 3 basis points from fixed asset repricing, mostly in the investment portfolio and consumer loans; positive 3 basis points from earning asset mix; positive 2 basis points from deposit and wholesale funding mix and cost, partially offset by a negative 4 basis points from lower non-accrual interest; and a negative 1 basis point for all other items. Non-accrual interest amounted to $12 million compared to $30 million in the second quarter.

利潤率上升的主要驅動力是固定資產重新定價上漲3個基點，主要是投資組合和消費貸款；獲利資產組合帶來正 3 個基點；存款及批發融資組合及成本帶來正 2 個基點，部分被非應計利息下降帶來的負 4 個基點所抵銷；所有其他項目負 1 個基點。非應計利息為 1,200 萬美元，而第二季為 3,000 萬美元。

Turn to slide 11 to talk about average loans. Average loans and leases increased slightly to $134.8 billion. Similar to the trend that we saw last several quarters, C&I growth outpaced the decline in CRE. C&I loans grew 3% to $59.8 billion, driven by increases in fund banking, dealer commercial services, mortgage warehouse, and franchise lending.

前往投影片 11 討論平均貸款。平均貸款和租賃略有增加，達到 1,348 億美元。與我們過去幾季看到的趨勢類似，商業和工業的成長超過了商業房地產的下降。受基金銀行業務、經銷商商業服務、抵押貸款倉庫和特許經營貸款成長的推動，工商業貸款成長 3%，達到 598 億美元。

Middle market utilization declined modestly, while dealer floor plan utilization increased from the second quarter as a result of slower auto sales and new model arrivals. CRE loans declined 8% to $29.1 billion, reflecting continued low originations and paydowns as we continue to manage our CRE concentrations.

中間市場利用率小幅下降，而由於汽車銷售放緩和新車型上市，經銷商平面圖利用率較第二季度增加。商業不動產貸款下降 8%，至 291 億美元，反映我們持續管理商業不動產集中度，發放貸款和還款金額持續較低。

CRE as a percent of Tier 1 capital and allowance is estimated to be 148% at the end of the third quarter. Residential mortgage loans were relatively unchanged at $23 billion. Consumer loans grew 4% to $22.9 billion, reflecting growth in recreational finance and indirect auto loans. Loan yields were unchanged at 6.38% as lower non-accrual interest was largely offset by the benefit of fixed-rate loan repricing, and mix shift.

截至第三季末，CRE 佔一級資本和準備金的百分比預計為 148%。住宅抵押貸款相對不變，為 230 億美元。消費貸款成長 4%，達到 229 億美元，反映出娛樂金融和間接汽車貸款的成長。貸款收益率保持在 6.38% 不變，因為較低的非應計利息在很大程度上被固定利率貸款重新定價和混合轉變的好處所抵消。

Turning to slide 12, our liquidity remains strong. At the end of the third quarter, investment securities and cash, including cash held at the Fed, totaled $59 billion, representing 28% of total assets. The average investment securities increased $1.3 billion. The yield on securities increased 9 basis points to 3.7%, as the yield on new purchases exceeded the yield on maturing securities.

轉向幻燈片 12，我們的流動性仍然強勁。截至第三季末，投資證券和現金（包括存放在聯準會的現金）總計590億美元，佔總資產的28%。平均投資證券增加了 13 億美元。證券收益率上升 9 個基點至 3.7%，因為新購買證券的收益率超過了到期證券的收益率。

In the fourth quarter, we have $1 billion in securities maturing at an average yield of 1.8%, which we intend to reinvest. The duration of the investment portfolio at the end of the quarter was 3.6 years. And the unrealized pre-tax gain on the available for-sale portfolio was $68 million or 3 basis points CET1 benefit, if included in regulatory capital.

第四季度，我們有 10 億美元的證券到期，平均收益率為 1.8%，我們打算對其進行再投資。截至本季末，投資組合的期限為3.6年。若包含在監理資本中，可供出售投資組合的未實現稅前收益為 6,800 萬美元，即 3 個基點的 CET1 收益。

Turning to slide 13, we remain focused on growing customer deposits and are pleased with the overall deposit performance. Average total loans declined $2 billion or 1% to $161.5 billion, reflecting a $1.1 billion decline in broker deposits and a $0.9 billion decline in non-broker deposits. Commercial and business banking grew total average deposits from the second quarter, while consumer deposits declined sequentially as we continue to manage more rate-sensitive deposits.

轉向投影片 13，我們仍然專注於增加客戶存款，並對整體存款表現感到滿意。平均貸款總額下降 20 億美元，或 1%，至 1,615 億美元，反映經紀人存款減少 11 億美元，非經紀人存款減少 9 億美元。商業和企業銀行業務的平均存款總額較第二季度有所增長，而消費者存款則因我們繼續管理對利率敏感的存款而環比下降。

Average non-interest-bearing deposits decline $1.6 billion to $46.2 billion from an expected [CRE]-related decline in trust demand deposits and modest continued disintermediation within commercial and consumer. Excluding broker deposits, average non-interest-bearing deposit mix in the third quarter was 30.7%. Interest-bearing deposit costs decreased 2 basis points to 2.88%.

平均無息存款下降 16 億美元至 462 億美元，原因是與信託活期存款預期相關的 [CRE] 下降以及商業和消費者內部適度持續的脫媒。不包括經紀存款，第三季平均無利息存款組合為30.7%。計息存款成本下降2個基點至2.88%。

Continuing on slide 14, non-interest income was $606 million compared to $584 million in the linked quarter. Trust income was $170 million, unchanged from the prior quarter, with second-quarter seasonal tax prep fees of $4 million, offset by strong equity market performance and sales performance at ICS.

繼續看投影片 14，非利息收入為 6.06 億美元，而相關季度的非利息收入為 5.84 億美元。信託收入為 1.7 億美元，與上一季持平，第二季季節性稅務準備費用為 400 萬美元，被強勁的股票市場表現和 ICS 的銷售業績所抵消。

Mortgage fees were $109 million compared to $106 million in the second quarter. Commercial mortgage fees increased $4 million from the linked quarter to $34 million, reflecting an uptick in the origination activity. Service charges increased $5 million to $132 million from both consumer and commercial, mostly related to the number of processing days in the quarter. Other revenues from operations were unchanged at $152 million.

抵押貸款費用為 1.09 億美元，而第二季為 1.06 億美元。商業抵押貸款費用較上一季增加 400 萬美元，達到 3,400 萬美元，反映出發起活動的增加。消費者和商業服務費用增加了 500 萬美元，達到 1.32 億美元，主要與本季的處理天數有關。其他營運收入維持不變，為 1.52 億美元。

Turning to slide 15. Non-insurance expenses were $1.3 billion, an increase of $6 million from the second quarter. Salary and benefits increased $11 million to $775 million, reflecting one additional working day. Deposit insurance decreased $12 million, reflecting the prior-quarter $5 million incremental special assessment.

轉到投影片 15。非保險費用為 13 億美元，較第二季增加 600 萬美元。工資和福利增加了 1,100 萬美元，達到 7.75 億美元，增加了一個工作日。存款保險減少 1,200 萬美元，反映出上一季增量特別評估 500 萬美元。

Other costs from operations increased $12 million to $128 million, driven mostly by M&T's obligation, under various agreements, to share in losses stemming from certain litigation of Visa. The efficiency ratio of 55% was largely unchanged from the second quarter.

其他營運成本增加了 1,200 萬美元，達到 1.28 億美元，主要原因是 M&T 根據各種協議有義務分擔 Visa 某些訴訟造成的損失。55%的效率與第二季基本持平。

Let's turn to slide 16 for credit. Net charge-offs for the quarter were $120 million or 35 basis points, down from 41 basis points in the linked quarter. The three largest charge-offs in the quarter totaled $37 million, combined with and represented two C&I loans and one office CRE loan.

讓我們翻到投影片 16 來了解一下。該季度的淨沖銷額為 1.2 億美元，即 35 個基點，低於相關季度的 41 個基點。本季最大的三筆沖銷總額為 3,700 萬美元，包括兩筆 C&I 貸款和一筆辦公室 CRE 貸款。

Non-accrual loans decreased $98 million or 5% to $1.9 billion. The non-accrual ratio decreased 8 basis points to 1.42%, driven largely by a decrease in CRE non-accruals from upgrades out of non-accrual as well as several large payoffs and paydowns.

非應計貸款減少 9,800 萬美元，即 5%，至 19 億美元。非應計比率下降 8 個基點至 1.42%，主要是由於非應計費用升級導致商業地產非應計費用減少以及幾次大額支付和付款。

In the third quarter, we recorded a provision of $120 million compared to a net charge-off of $120 million. The allowance-to-loan ratio decreased 1 basis point to 1.62% as a result of continued improvements in asset quality and improvements in the macroeconomic outlook, partially offset by growth in certain portfolios.

第三季度，我們記錄了 1.2 億美元的撥備，而淨沖銷額為 1.2 億美元。由於資產品質持續改善和宏觀經濟前景改善，撥貸比下降1個基點至1.62%，但部分投資組合的成長抵銷了此影響。

Please turn to slide 17. When we file our Form 10-Q in a few weeks, we estimate that the level of criticized loans will be at $10.9 billion compared to $12.1 billion at the end of June. The improvement from the linked quarter was driven by a $315 million decline in C&I and $830 million decline in CRE criticized balances.

請翻至投影片 17。當我們在幾週內提交 10-Q 表格時，我們估計受到批評的貸款水準將為 109 億美元，而 6 月底為 121 億美元。上一季的改善是由於 C&I 下降了 3.15 億美元，CRE 批評餘額下降了 8.3 億美元。

Slide 18 provides additional detail on the C&I criticized balances. The largest C&I criticized balance decreases were within the motor vehicle and recreational finance dealers, and manufacturing segments, with smaller changes across most other industries. The decline within the motor vehicle and recreational finance dealers mostly reflects improvements in debt service coverage ratios, and normalizing profit margins within the RV segment.

投影片 18 提供了有關 C&I 批評餘額的更多詳細資訊。工商業和工業界最受批評的餘額下降發生在機動車輛和娛樂金融經銷商以及製造領域，而大多數其他行業的變化較小。機動車輛和休閒金融經銷商的下降主要反映了償債覆蓋率的提高以及房車細分市場利潤率的正常化。

Slide 19 includes the detail on CRE criticized balances. The largest CRE criticized declines were within healthcare and construction, with continued but more modest declines in most other property types except for office. Within healthcare, we saw an uptick in repayment activity as improvements in occupancy and rent growth, combined with declining long-term rates, allowed for more viable takeouts.

投影片 19 包含有關 CRE 批評餘額的詳細資訊。商業房地產受到批評最多的下降是醫療保健和建築領域，除辦公大樓外，大多數其他房地產類型的下降仍在持續，但幅度較小。在醫療保健領域，我們看到還款活動增加，因為入住率和租金成長有所改善，加上長期利率下降，使得外送變得更加可行。

The decline in construction criticized was aided by improved project performance and loan modifications and curtailments, as borrowers continue to support these projects. The largest factor that drove (technical difficulty) versus prior quarters was the amount of upgrades that occurred in the quarter.

由於借款人繼續支持這些項目，項目績效的改善以及貸款的修改和削減也促進了受到批評的建築業的下降。與前幾季相比，推動（技術難度）的最大因素是本季發生的升級量。

Turning to slide 20 for capital. M&T's CET1 ratio at the end of the third quarter was an estimated 11.54% compared to 11.45% at the end of the second quarter. The increase was due to continued strong earnings and a $200 million share repurchase in the third quarter. At the end of the third quarter, the negative AOCI impact on the CET1 ratio from available for-sale securities and pension-related components, combined, would be approximately 4 basis points.

前往投影片 20 了解資本。M&T 第三季末的 CET1 比率估計為 11.54%，而第二季末為 11.45%。這一成長歸因於持續強勁的獲利以及第三季 2 億美元的股票回購。到第三季末，可供出售證券和退休金相關成分對 CET1 比率的負面 AOCI 影響總計約為 4 個基點。

Now turning to slide 21 for the outlook. Let's begin with the economic backdrop. The economy remains resilient in the third quarter, with GDP growth expected to come in stronger than we had projected. The labor market has slowed but remains healthy.

現在轉向幻燈片 21 來了解前景。讓我們從經濟背景開始。第三季經濟仍保持彈性，GDP 成長預計將強於我們的預期。勞動市場已經放緩，但仍保持健康。

Though we see a soft landing scenario as having the highest probability, the possibility remains for a mild recession brought on by legged impact and rate hikes. The consumer spending has slowed, alleviating inflation pressure for many goods and services. Recently, inflation has nearly returned to the Fed's target of 2%.

儘管我們認為軟著陸的可能性最高，但由於長期影響和升息帶來的溫和衰退的可能性仍然存在。消費者支出放緩，緩解了許多商品和服務的通膨壓力。最近，通膨已接近回到聯準會2%的目標。

Now turning to the outlook. Our outlook for the full-year NII is unchanged from our last update, while the outlook from the full-year fees, expenses, and net charge-offs is unchanged from the ranges we initially discussed in January and maintained through the year.

現在轉向前景。我們對全年 NII 的展望與上次更新相比沒有變化，而全年費用、開支和淨沖銷的展望與我們最初在一月份討論並全年維持的範圍沒有變化。

That said, with three quarters complete, we will focus on the outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect taxable equivalent NII to be at least $1.73 billion, implying a full-year NII near the top end of the range we provided previously. Net interest margin is expected to be in the low 360s. Our outlook incorporates the latest forward curve that has an additional 50 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year.

也就是說，隨著三個季度的結束，我們將重點放在第四季度的前景。我們預計應稅 NII 等值至少為 17.3 億美元，這意味著全年 NII 接近我們之前提供的範圍的上限。預計淨利差將在 360 左右。我們的展望包含最新的遠期曲線，該曲線在年底前額外降息 50 個基點。

We expect continued loan growth and average total loans of approximately $136 billion, with growth in C&I and consumer and lower CRE balances. Total deposits are expected to be at least $160 billion as we continue to focus on growing core customer deposits. We expect interest-bearing deposit beta of approximately 40% for the first couple of interest rate cuts.

我們預計貸款將持續成長，平均貸款總額約為 1,360 億美元，其中 C&I 和消費者將成長，而 CRE 餘額將減少。隨著我們繼續專注於增加核心客戶存款，預計存款總額將至少達到 1,600 億美元。我們預計前幾次降息的帶息存款貝塔值約為 40%。

Security balances are expected to continue to grow in the fourth quarter. Our outlook for the fourth-quarter non-interest income is about $600 million, reflecting continued strength in mortgage and trust, partially offset by other fee categories. Fourth-quarter expenses, including intangible amortization, are expected to be about $1.32 billion due to the timing of projects coming online.

預計第四季度安全餘額將繼續增長。我們對第四季度非利息收入的預期約為 6 億美元，反映出抵押貸款和信託業務的持續強勁，但部分被其他費用類別所抵消。由於專案上線時間的原因，包括無形攤銷在內的第四季支出預計約為 13.2 億美元。

This reflects continued investment in our key priorities and initiatives for closely managing our expenses. We continue to expect net charge-offs for the full year to be near 40 basis points. Our outlook for the tax rate for the fourth quarter is about 24.25%. And the preferred dividends are expected to be approximately $36 million. We plan to continue the $200 million share repurchase in the fourth quarter.

這反映出我們對關鍵優先事項和密切管理支出措施的持續投資。我們繼續預計全年淨沖銷將接近 40 個基點。我們對第四季稅率的展望約為24.25%。優先股股息預計約3600萬美元。我們計劃在第四季繼續進行 2 億美元的股票回購。

To conclude, on slide 22, our results underscore an optimistic investment thesis. M&T has always been a purpose-driven organization with a successful business model that benefits all stakeholders, including shareholders.

最後，在投影片 22 上，我們的結果強調了樂觀的投資論點。M&T 一直是一家以目標為導向的組織，擁有成功的商業模式，使包括股東在內的所有利害關係人受益。

We have a long track record of credit outperforming for all economic cycles while growing within the markets we serve. We remain focused on shareholder returns and consistent dividend growth. Finally, we are a disciplined acquirer and prudent steward of shareholder capital.

我們擁有在所有經濟週期中信貸表現優異的長期記錄，同時在我們服務的市場中不斷發展。我們仍然關注股東回報和持續的股息成長。最後，我們是一個紀律嚴明的收購者和股東資本的謹慎管理者。

Now let's open the call to questions, before which our operator will briefly review instructions.

現在讓我們開始提問，在此之前我們的接線員將簡要回顧一下說明。

(Operator Instructions) Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指令）Gerard Cassidy，RBC 資本市場。

Hi, Daryl. How are you?

嗨，達裡爾。你好嗎？

Good. How are you doing, Gerard?

好的。你好嗎，傑拉德？

Good. Thank you. Daryl, over the years, M&T has done a great job in managing their capital and returning excess capital to shareholders. You pointed out today that your CET1 ratio is a very strong 11.5%, and you have the buyback going on again in the fourth quarter.

好的。謝謝。Daryl，多年來，M&T 在管理資本並將多餘資本返還給股東方面做得非常出色。您今天指出，您的 CET1 比率非常強勁，為 11.5%，並且您在第四季度再次進行回購。

Can you share with us where do you think the CET1 ratio is at an optimal level? And to get there, could you increase the share repurchases as you go forward into 2025? And once we also get the final Basel III endgame, do you guys know what to expect?

能跟我們分享一下您認為CET1比率處於最佳水準嗎？為了實現這一目標，您能否在進入 2025 年時增加股票回購？一旦我們也獲得巴塞爾協議 III 的最終結局，你們知道會發生什麼嗎？

Yeah, thanks, Gerard. First, I just want to start with that. We have a lot of flexibility when it comes to capital, with a CET1 ratio of 11.5%. And we have really no negative impact on the AOCI, and we have strong capital generation.

是的，謝謝，傑拉德。首先，我想從這個開始。我們在資本方面有很大的靈活性，CET1 比率為 11.5%。我們對 AOCI 確實沒有負面影響，而且我們有強大的資本生成能力。

That said, as we continue to move forward into the end of the fourth quarter and into 2025, we will continue to look at the economy. The economy continues to grow now. But if we decide to slow down, that could impact potential increases to share repurchase.

也就是說，隨著我們繼續進入第四季末和 2025 年，我們將繼續關注經濟。現在經濟持續成長。但如果我們決定放慢腳步，可能會影響股票回購的潛在成長。

We've made great progress on our criticized loans. They've come down now two consecutive quarters. We expect fourth quarter to be also a really strong decrease in criticized. And we believe we're at the point now that our CRE exposure is where we want it to be. And we are now -- the pipeline is starting to build from that perspective.

我們在受到批評的貸款問題上取得了很大進展。他們現在已經連續兩個季度下降。我們預計第四季的批評數量也會大幅減少。我們相信，現在我們的商業房地產投資已經達到了我們想要的水平。現在，我們正在從這個角度開始建立管道。

So I believe in 2025, we will return more capital to shareholders as long as it plays out, as mentioned, what I just talked about. We will probably switch to dollar amounts and target more of a CET1 ratio. So for example, we might say we'll buy back in 2025 if we want to stay above 11% CET1 ratio, and do repurchases. And that depends on how much loan growth and RWA growth that we have on the balance sheet.

所以我相信到2025年，只要能達到我剛才談到的效果，我們就會向股東回饋更多的資本。我們可能會轉向美元金額，並以 CET1 比率為目標。例如，如果我們想將 CET1 比率保持在 11% 以上，我們可能會說我們會在 2025 年回購，並進行回購。這取決於我們資產負債表上的貸款成長和 RWA 成長量。

I know 11% is higher than what you would need long term. But we're working on our long-term targets and, probably, will have something to say about that in the next quarter or so.

我知道 11% 比您長期需要的要高。但我們正在努力實現長期目標，並且可能會在下個季度左右對此發表一些看法。

Very good. Very helpful. And then as a follow-up -- and I'm not asking for '25 guidance because I know that won't come until possibly January. But it looks like your net interest income has troughed. It looks like the first quarter, based upon slide 9, that net interest income bottomed. And you're gradually growing out net interest income and the margins obviously expanding.

非常好。非常有幫助。然後作為後續行動 - 我不會要求 '25 指導，因為我知道這可能要到一月份才會出現。但看起來你的淨利息收入已經觸底。根據幻燈片 9，看起來第一季淨利息收入已觸底。淨利息收入逐漸成長，利潤率明顯擴大。

If the forward curve is correct and if the Fed -- and I know these are big ifs. But if the forward curve is correct and the Fed is correct in that it's going to lower the Fed funds rate, possibly, to 3 to 3.5% by the end of next year and we get a positive slope in the curve, can you kind of frame out -- should this growth that you're seeing continue and possibly accelerate in 2025, just based -- aside from growing your balance sheet -- but just based on interest rates?

如果遠期曲線是正確的，如果聯準會——我知道這些都是很大的如果。但是，如果遠期曲線是正確的，而且美聯儲是正確的，因為它可能會在明年年底前將聯邦基金利率降低到 3% 至 3.5%，並且我們的曲線斜率是正的，你能不能框架——你所看到的這種增長是否會在2025 年繼續下去，並可能加速，只是基於——除了資產負債表的增長之外——但僅僅基於利率？

You start off with a very rosy scenario. Let me just say that our team has worked really hard this past year in '24. And we are really neutral in net interest income and really happy that happened just as the Fed started lowering rates. So we're really fortunate for that.

你從一個非常樂觀的場景開始。我只想說，我們的團隊在過去的24年裡工作得非常努力。我們對淨利息收入的看法確實是中性的，並且很高興在聯準會開始降息之際發生了這種情況。所以我們真的很幸運。

If you look at what's going on, we have really good roll-on and roll-off rates in a lot of our fixed asset portfolios. I know it's hard for you, as analysts, to really understand and get those numbers into your models.

如果你看看正在發生的事情，我們的許多固定資產投資組合都有非常好的滾存率和滾存率。我知道，作為分析師，您很難真正理解這些數字並將其放入您的模型中。

But if you look at auto and RV, resi mortgage, and our investment portfolio, all those continue to reprice positively this quarter. We expect that to continue next quarter and into 2025. So that's a positive for us. Upward sloping curve would enhance that potentially.

但如果你看看汽車和房車、房地產抵押貸款以及我們的投資組合，所有這些都在本季繼續積極重新定價。我們預計這種情況將持續到下個季度直至 2025 年。所以這對我們來說是積極的。向上傾斜的曲線將增強這種潛力。

On the deposit side, I just see it's the strength of our company, Gerard. It is our strong foundation that we have. We have really strong, stable, core operating deposits. We're seeing now an initial downward beta of 40%.

在存款方面，我只看到這是我們公司的實力，傑拉德。這是我們擁有的堅實基礎。我們擁有非常強大、穩定的核心營運存款。我們現在看到初始貝塔值下降了 40%。

That's at the higher end of the range that we talked about previously, so that's strong. And when you look at hedging, we know we already have locked in hedges improvements in our swap book that we're going to, basically, reprice our hedges.

這是我們之前討論過的範圍的高端，所以很強勁。當你看對沖時，我們知道我們已經在掉期帳簿中鎖定了對沖改進，基本上我們將重新定價我們的對沖。

If you look at the cash flow hedges, point to point, they should go up about 55 basis points. And the fair value hedges should go up about 37 basis points, point to point, in '25. That's if rates don't even change. So that's probably very positive.

如果逐點查看現金流對沖，它們應該會上漲約 55 個基點。25 年，公允價值避險應逐點上升約 37 個基點。如果利率沒有變動的話。所以這可能是非常積極的。

So we have a lot of good things going on. Plus, we're growing loans. Even when we were shrinking CRE, we were able to eke out loan growth. So our businesses are performing really well, both on the CRE and C&I side, as well as our consumer businesses.

所以我們有很多好事發生。另外，我們正在增加貸款。即使我們正在收縮商業房地產，我們仍然能夠維持貸款成長。因此，我們的業務表現非常好，無論是在商業房地產、商業和工業方面，還是我們的消費業務。

So I would say we have positive mix benefit as we move forward, as we continue to grow that. So that gives me a lot of confidence that NII, net interest margin, should continue to improve.

所以我想說，隨著我們前進，隨著我們繼續發展，我們將獲得積極的混合效益。因此，這讓我很有信心，NII（淨利差）應該會繼續改善。

Very good. Very helpful. Thank you.

非常好。非常有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Good morning, Daryl.

早安，達裡爾。

Good morning.

早安.

Just question on -- you mentioned the criticized loans' declined. I'm just wondering, do we need rates to go much lower for CRE criticized loans to come down over the coming quarters?

只是問一下——你提到了受到批評的貸款被拒絕了。我只是想知道，我們是否需要大幅降低利率，才能讓 CRE 批評的貸款在未來幾季下降？

And could we see a big, like, stair-step decline at some point early next year when you -- I don't know -- get updated appraisals, financials from these borrowers? And what are the implications? Does it really change your thought process as a result on the 11% CET1 or where the reserve ratio is today at 1.60?

當你——我不知道——從這些借款人那裡得到最新的評估和財務數據時，我們是否會在明年初的某個時候看到大幅的、階梯式的下降？這有何影響？11% CET1 或今天的準備率 1.60 真的會改變您的思考過程嗎？

Yeah, thanks for the question, Ebrahim. What I would tell you is, this quarter, I pointed out in the prepared remarks, the biggest difference in the third quarter versus the past several quarters is that we actually had a lot of upgrades in our rolls.

是的，謝謝你的提問，易卜拉欣。我要告訴你的是，這個季度，我在準備好的發言中指出，第三季度與過去幾季最大的區別是，我們的捲實際上有很多升級。

When rates fall, we can have more takeouts and paydowns from that. And that's occurring, obviously, with rates coming down, but we're getting actually good upgrades now. If you look, specifically, in our healthcare sector that we had, the operations really started to improve.

當利率下降時，我們可以從中獲得更多的收益和付款。顯然，隨著費率的下降，這種情況正在發生，但我們現在實際上得到了很好的升級。如果你具體看看我們的醫療保健部門，你會發現營運確實開始改善。

Their occupancy and rents were more positive, and they were cash flowing better. And that's really positive. You have to remember that in our criticized book that we have, in total, 91% is paying current. So that's really, really good.

他們的入住率和租金更加積極，現金流也更好。這確實是積極的。你必須記住，在我們受到批評的書中，我們總共有 91% 的人在支付活期費用。所以這真的非常非常好。

If you look at our CRE construction book, that also dropped a fair amount. And that was really driven by interest rates and also just stabilization that you're seeing in the marketplace, the projects that we have. And one of the strengths M&T has with all of our lending is really the clients that we lend to. We really have really strong client selection. And people are committed to supporting their credits and believe that they're the right things. They want to hold on to them.

如果你看一下我們的商業房地產建設手冊，你會發現這也下降了相當多的金額。這實際上是由利率以及您在市場上看到的穩定性以及我們擁有的項目所驅動的。M&T 在所有貸款方面的優勢之一實際上是我們貸款的客戶。我們確實有非常強大的客戶選擇。人們致力於支持他們的信用並相信他們是正確的。他們想抓住他們。

And you're seeing that really come through, and you're seeing this now come through as we're starting to get upgrades. The other thing that we saw this quarter is our RV dealers, [three at three] significant RV dealers. They were able to get rid of their excess inventory in 2022, and that really helped from an upgrade perspective.

您會看到這確實實現了，並且隨著我們開始升級，您會看到這一點現在已經實現了。本季我們看到的另一件事是我們的房車經銷商，[三對三]重要的房車經銷商。他們能夠在 2022 年擺脫多餘的庫存，從升級的角度來看，這確實有幫助。

So we have a lot of momentum in criticized. I'm very optimistic. Fourth quarter will continue to be a very strong -- and continue into '25. So I think we have momentum there, and it probably won't be a direct line down, Ebrahim. But I think the trajectory is definite down, and I feel very positive about that.

所以我們有很大的動力去批評。我很樂觀。第四季將繼續表現強勁，並持續到 25 年。所以我認為我們在那裡有動力，而且可能不會是直接下降，易卜拉欣。但我認為軌跡肯定會下降，我對此感到非常積極。

Understood. And just maybe, Daryl, so you mentioned drivers of loan growth. You had pretty good C&I growth the last few quarters. Is this still coming through partly driven by the People's acquisition and kind of the footprint you acquired there? And are we done with the runoff in CRE? Could that kind of flatline from here, or is that still going to be declining somewhat from third-quarter levels?

明白了。達裡爾，也許你提到了貸款成長的驅動因素。過去幾個季度，C&I 成長相當不錯。這是否仍然部分是由人民的收購和你在那裡獲得的足跡所推動的？我們已經完成 CRE 的徑流了嗎？是否會從現在開始持平，或者仍然會比第三季度的水平有所下降？

Yeah, so let me start with the CRE first. So our pipelines are building in CRE. We haven't had large pipelines for a while there. So it's going to take us probably a couple quarters for those pipelines to fill up and start seeing it hit on the balance sheet.

是的，所以讓我先從 CRE 開始。所以我們的管道正在 CRE 中建造。我們已經有一段時間沒有大型管道了。因此，我們可能需要幾個季度的時間才能填滿這些管道並開始看到它出現在資產負債表上。

But we are making really good progress in our CRE portfolio, and that gives me confidence as we get into 2025. We won't be shrinking CRE, but we'll be growing CRE. So it's another oar in the water that will give us more momentum from a revenue growth perspective from that. So I think that's very positive.

但我們的商業房地產投資組合正在取得非常好的進展，這讓我對進入 2025 年充滿信心。我們不會縮減商業房地產，但我們會增加商業房地產。因此，從收入成長的角度來看，這是水中的另一支槳，將為我們帶來更多動力。所以我認為這是非常積極的。

As far as growth this quarter, it was continued growth. I mean, our specialty businesses that we have, corporate and institutional, fund banking, mortgage warehouse, franchise, all were really strong growers this quarter.

就本季的成長而言，是持續成長。我的意思是，我們擁有的專業業務，企業和機構、基金銀行、抵押倉庫、特許經營，本季都成長強勁。

When you saw the quarter play out, we were a little soft in the first part of the quarter, but we finished the quarter really strong. You can see it in end-to-period loan balances, and we have a lot of momentum going into the fourth quarter. So that's good.

當你看到本季的結果時，我們在本季的前半部分有點疲軟，但我們在本季結束時非常強勁。你可以在期末貸款餘額中看到這一點，我們進入第四季度有很大的動力。所以這樣很好。

When you look at our regions that we have, our middle market, the areas that really are the highlight there are Boston and Baltimore, New Jersey; York, PA; Richmond, Virginia. All those continue to progress and go really be positive. So I would say we have good momentum in the lending side and feel good about the revenue projections that we have.

當你看到我們擁有的地區、我們的中間市場時，真正的亮點地區是波士頓和新澤西州的巴爾的摩；賓州約克；弗吉尼亞州里士滿。所有這些都在繼續進步並且變得非常積極。所以我想說，我們在貸款方面有良好的勢頭，並且對我們的收入預測感到滿意。

And just one follow-up on the previous response you gave to Gerard. If we don't get a rate cut in the fourth quarter in November, December, or at least one of those, does that change your outlook on the NII and NIM from here?

這只是您之前給傑拉德的回覆的一個後續行動。如果我們沒有在 11 月、12 月第四季或至少其中一個降息，這是否會改變您對 NII 和 NIM 的展望？

Everything I said going through that list, Ebrahim, was structural that's going on in our balance sheet that has no impact on interest rates. So I feel comfortable that we're going up if rates stay flat or if they actually go up or down.

易卜拉欣，我在這份清單中所說的一切都是結構性的，發生在我們的資產負債表上，對利率沒有影響。因此，如果利率保持不變或實際上會上漲或下跌，我們就會上漲，我對此感到放心。

We're relatively neutral from an interest rate risk percentage, and it's hard to be exact. But we're as neutral as you can be with a balance sheet and the complexities that you have. So I feel good that we have an upward trajectory and margin, and net interest income.

從利率風險百分比來看，我們相對中性，而且很難準確。但我們對資產負債表和所面臨的複雜性盡可能保持中立。因此，我對我們的上升軌跡、利潤率和淨利息收入感到滿意。

That's helpful. Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning, Daryl.

嘿，早上好，達裡爾。

Good morning.

早安.

So I wanted to ask on deposit betas. I think you noted that you're assuming a 40% deposit beta in 4Q. Now, deposit betas on the way up are closer to the mid-50s, if I recall correctly. So do you expect that betas will accelerate from 4Q as you go into next year and as we see more rate cuts, and get closer to the betas that you saw on the way up?

所以我想問一下存款測試版。我想您已經注意到，您假設第四季度的存款貝塔率為 40%。現在，如果我沒記錯的話，存款貝塔值的上升接近 50 年代中期。那麼，隨著進入明年，隨著我們看到更多的降息，您是否預計貝塔值將從第四季度開始加速，並接近您在上升過程中看到的貝塔值？

Yeah. I think of it -- maybe it's my simple mind or whatever. But I think that if our betas went up, I think we peaked at about 55%. On the way down, we'll probably end up at 55% at some point. It's really the pace and how quickly you get there.

是的。我想起來了──也許是我頭腦簡單或是其他什麼原因。但我認為，如果我們的貝塔值上升，我認為我們的峰值約為 55%。在下降過程中，我們可能會在某個時候下降到 55%。這實際上是你達到目標的速度和速度。

But I felt really good about what we've been able to do at the end of September and feel good that we'll have a good -- at least, a 40% beta repricing down in the fourth quarter. And that, hopefully, will continue to move forward as we get into 2025.

但我對我們在 9 月底所做的事情感到非常滿意，並且對我們將在第四季度進行至少 40% 的測試版重新定價感到滿意。希望隨著我們進入 2025 年，這種情況將繼續向前發展。

But all things being equal, I don't think we're going back to where we were. But I feel very positive that our businesses are lowering rates. It was a lot of good planning that we had in the company. Our treasury team, with all the businesses, worked really hard to come up with good strategies and really good implementation. And we've tested that, and we're really good at where we're headed.

但在所有條件相同的情況下，我認為我們不會回到原來的狀態。但我對我們的企業正在降低利率感到非常積極。我們公司有很多很好的計劃。我們的財務團隊與所有企業一起努力工作，以製定良好的策略並實施良好的實施。我們已經對此進行了測試，並且我們非常擅長我們的發展方向。

Got it. And then just in terms of the loan growth you were just speaking about, as we get into next year, I mean, it sounds like loan growth will accelerate as you start to build those CRE loans.

知道了。然後就你剛才談到的貸款成長而言，隨著我們進入明年，我的意思是，隨著你開始建立這些商業房地產貸款，聽起來貸款成長將會加速。

In terms of funding that loan growth, do you expect to grow deposits in line with loan growth next year, or is there room to bring down the cash balances? I noticed that they didn't go down that much this quarter. Is there some room to utilize cash balances and maybe grow deposits a little bit slower next year?

在為貸款成長提供資金方面，您預計明年的存款成長是否與貸款成長保持一致，或者是否有降低現金餘額的空間？我注意到本季度它們並沒有下降那麼多。明年是否還有利用現金餘額的空間，存款成長速度是否會放緩一些？

Manan, I'm a big believer that we want to operate the company basically being always-on. When I say always-on, what that means is we are always out there trying to get deposits from all of our customers. We won't pay the highest rates, we won't pay the lowest rates, but we'll always be out there asking for deposits.

馬南，我堅信我們希望公司基本上永遠在線上。當我說「永遠在線」時，這意味著我們總是試圖從所有客戶那裡獲得存款。我們不會支付最高的利率，我們不會支付最低的利率，但我們將永遠在那裡要求存款。

We've had four consecutive quarters of customer growth in deposits. We will continue to focus on growing customer deposits. I think it's important -- if you think of a boat, if you're growing loans, you need to grow deposits so you don't go in a circle and all that.

我們的客戶存款已連續四個季度成長。我們將持續專注於增加客戶存款。我認為這很重要——如果你想到一艘船，如果你增加貸款，你就需要增加存款，這樣你就不會原地踏步等等。

So you need to continue to move going forward. I would actually like to grow deposits faster than loans, to be honest with you, and continue to shrink some of our non-core funding, if that's able, if we're able to do that.

所以你需要繼續前進。老實說，我實際上希望存款的成長速度快於貸款的成長速度，並繼續縮減我們的一些非核心資金，如果可以的話，如果我們能夠做到的話。

Got it. So it sounds like that core deposits continue to grow. You'll pay down some of the non-core funding. And would the securities balances grow as well as you move away from cash, or would you expect to stay at this level of cash?

知道了。因此，聽起來核心存款仍在持續成長。您將支付一些非核心資金。證券餘額會隨著您遠離現金而增長，還是您希望保持在這個現金水平？

If you look at where we are right now, we have about $59 billion between the two. We are putting more money into the investment portfolio. Again, we've been very methodical all year, increasing our investment portfolio increases. And that's played out really well for us.

如果你看看我們現在的處境，你會發現兩者之間的差距約為 590 億美元。我們正在將更多資金投入投資組合。同樣，我們這一年都非常有條理，增加了我們的投資組合。這對我們來說效果非常好。

You saw we had nice increases. We'll probably be in the 390s towards the end of the year, early first quarter, and 4% sometime in 2025 from a yield perspective. So we will continue to grow our investment portfolio. We have $1 billion in maturing in the fourth quarter. We'll probably invest $3 billion in the fourth quarter, and then we'll re-evaluate and see how '25 plays out.

你看到我們有很好的成長。從收益率的角度來看，我們可能會在年底、第一季初達到 390 左右，並在 2025 年某個時候達到 4%。因此，我們將繼續擴大我們的投資組合。我們第四季有 10 億美元到期。我們可能會在第四季度投資 30 億美元，然後我們將重新評估並看看 25 年後的表現如何。

From a cash-at-the-Fed perspective, we probably will operate with cash at Fed. No, at $20 billion, we won't probably go much lower than that. But I think we just have a lot of flexibility where we are right now. Right now, we're sitting on about $25 billion-plus at the Fed, so we got a lot of flexibility.

從聯準會現金的角度來看，我們可能會在聯準會使用現金進行操作。不，在 200 億美元的情況下，我們可能不會比這個數字低得多。但我認為我們現在有很大的靈活性。目前，我們在聯準會坐擁約 250 億美元以上的資金，因此我們擁有很大的靈活性。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Christopher Spahr, Wells Fargo.

克里斯多福‧斯帕爾，富國銀行。

Thank you. Good morning. So just a question on the loans (technical difficulty)

謝謝。早安.所以只是關於貸款的問題（技術難度）

You're breaking right now.

你現在就崩潰了。

Apologies. Can you hear me better now, or is this still bad?

抱歉。現在你能聽得更清楚了嗎？

I can now, yes.

我現在可以了，是的。

Okay. Sorry about that. Just for the loans in the fourth quarter relative to period end of $136 billion, is there upside to that if CRE stabilizes, or do you see some more runoff and paydowns in that portfolio and then stabilizing into 2025?

好的。對此感到抱歉。僅就第四季度的貸款而言，相對於期末的1,360 億美元，如果CRE 穩定下來，是否會有上行空間，或者您是否會看到該投資組合中有更多的徑流和還款，然後穩定到2025 年？

Yeah, I think you're going to see runoff in CRE for at least a couple more quarters, first quarter, for sure -- fourth quarter, first quarter, and maybe second quarter. It depends on how quickly our pipelines build and what type of loans that we're making, whether it's permanent or construction loans from that perspective.

是的，我認為你會在至少幾個季度內看到商業房地產的徑流，當然是第一季——第四季、第一季度，也許還有第二季。這取決於我們的管道建造速度以及我們發放的貸款類型，從這個角度來看是永久貸款還是建造貸款。

But we're going to operate with about 20% of our loan book being in CRE. It's kind of a mix that we're going to have moving forward from that projection. Pipelines are building. And Peter and his team will do a great job and try to meet the needs of our clients and communities as we move forward. So we'll do it the right way, but I wouldn't expect CRE balances to grow until mid-next year conservatively.

但我們將在經營過程中將 20% 左右的貸款存入 CRE。這是我們將從該預測中向前推進的混合。管道正在建設中。彼得和他的團隊將做得很好，並在我們前進的過程中努力滿足客戶和社區的需求。因此，我們會以正確的方式來做，但我保守地預期商業地產餘額要到明年年中才會成長。

Okay. And then during the quarter, you said that a 200-basis-point lower in rates could actually effectively wipe out the criticized loans in the CRE. Do I have that correct? And if so, then just kind of getting back to the earlier questions, like the timing, is it that last (technical difficulty)

好的。然後在本季度，您表示利率降低 200 個基點實際上可以有效消除 CRE 中受到批評的貸款。我說的對嗎？如果是這樣，那就回到之前的問題，例如時間安排，是最後一個嗎？（技術難度）

Yeah, I didn't get the last part of your question. Yeah, I got the first part. I didn't get the last part, Chris.

是的，我沒聽清楚你問題的最後一部分。是的，我得到了第一部分。我沒聽懂最後一部分，克里斯。

Sure. Apologies about the connection. What's the timing of that? If you do get 200 basis points lower in the curve, what's the timing for the benefits on the criticized CRE?

當然。關於連線的問題深表歉意。那是什麼時間呢？如果曲線確實下降了 200 個基點，那麼受批評的 CRE 何時會受益？

Yeah, so we have a good downward trajectory in criticized. I don't like to use the word wipe out. I don't think that's appropriate.

是的，所以我們在批評方面有一個良好的下降軌跡。我不喜歡用「消滅」這個詞。我認為這不合適。

We have a long-term history, Chris, of working with our clients and staying with them when things are stressful, and we will continue to do that. As long as they support their loans, then I will. So we're always going to have some criticized loans. That's just who we are. It's in our DNA. It also makes our clients very loyal to us. So that's going to continue from that perspective.

克里斯，我們有著與客戶合作並在遇到壓力時與他們在一起的悠久歷史，我們將繼續這樣做。只要他們支持他們的貸款，我就會支持。所以我們總是會有一些被批評的貸款。這就是我們。它存在於我們的 DNA 中。這也使我們的客戶對我們非常忠誠。因此，從這個角度來看，這將繼續下去。

But I do feel really good, fourth quarter trajectory down. I do believe that we will continue with a good trajectory down in 2025 and all that. But we aren't going to, quote, wipe out the criticized balances.

但我確實感覺很好，第四季的軌跡有所下降。我確實相信，到 2025 年，我們將繼續保持良好的發展軌跡。但我們不會，引用，消除被批評的餘額。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Dave Rochester, Compass Point.

戴夫·羅徹斯特，羅盤點。

Hey, good morning, guys. Nice quarter.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。不錯的季度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

On the deposit front, I appreciated the outlook on the beta, that 40% you mentioned. I was curious on what your thoughts were on the non-interest-bearing deposit piece as a part of that deposit outlook.

在存款方面，我很欣賞 Beta 版的前景，也就是你提到的 40%。我很好奇您對作為存款展望一部分的無息存款有何看法。

I know you're still running off broker deposits, so that's a part of that decline that you've been talking about for 4Q. Are you factoring in a little bit more runoff on the non-interest-bearing side within that? And can you talk about how close we are to a drop in those deposits?

我知道您仍在消耗經紀人存款，因此這是您一直在談論的第四季度下降的一部分。您是否在其中考慮了更多的無息方面的徑流？您能否談談我們距離這些存款下降還有多遠？

So when you look at our non-interest bearing, I would say that the commercial and consumer side is really slowed down significantly. There might be a little bit of disintermediation that occurs, but I wouldn't say very much as we move forward.

因此，當你看看我們的無息貸款時，我會說商業和消費者方面確實顯著放緩。可能會出現一點脫媒現象，但隨著我們的前進，我不會說太多。

I think what you have, though, in our non-interest bearing is just a function of who we are, is that we have balances from our ICS business. And those balances tend to be volatile. And sometimes, you see swings of that going back and forth.

不過，我認為，在我們的無息業務中，我們所擁有的只是我們是誰的一個功能，那就是我們從 ICS 業務中獲得了餘額。而這些餘額往往不穩定。有時，你會看到這種情況來回波動。

We will try to point those out and all that, but you're going to have some volatility with that. But I think for the most part, what we said several quarters ago that we thought we'd average around 30% non-interest bearing, I think that's playing out when you exclude our broker deposits from that perspective.

我們會盡力指出這些以及所有這些，但你會遇到一些波動。但我認為，在大多數情況下，我們幾個季度前所說的，我們認為我們的平均無息利率約為30%，我認為當你從這個角度排除我們的經紀人存款時，這種情況就會發生。

So I feel really good from a non-interest-bearing perspective. I think the thing, as you look forward, the value of free deposits, as rates come down, it's less. So we have to work harder to keep our interest rate spreads and margins higher, just because you aren't getting as much benefit from the non-interest bearing. And we're aware of that, and we're definitely keyed into how that plays out.

所以從無息角度來看我感覺非常好。我認為，正如你所期望的那樣，隨著利率下降，免費存款的價值會減少。因此，我們必須更加努力地保持我們的利差和利潤率更高，因為你沒有從無息中獲得那麼多的好處。我們意識到了這一點，我們肯定會關注它的結果。

Okay. Great, thanks. Switching to loan growth, appreciated all the color you gave on the drivers for 3Q. I think you mentioned those more specialty lines and that middle market utilization was actually down a little bit. When do you expect that utilization to start to move up more meaningfully? And if you could just talk about the competitive landscape within C&I overall, that'd be great.

好的。太好了，謝謝。轉向貸款成長，感謝您對第三季驅動因素的所有描述。我認為您提到了那些更專業的產品線，而中間市場的利用率實際上有所下降。您預計利用率何時會開始更有意義地上升？如果您能談談 C&I 整體的競爭格局，那就太好了。

Yeah. Well, within commercial, we did have the increase, like I said, in our dealer services. It seems like there's a lot more cars on the lots now, which is driving that utilization up, but net-net is still down. Some of it could be post-election. That's what people seem to be defaulting to when you talk to clients in the marketplaces.

是的。嗯，在商業領域，正如我所說，我們的經銷商服務確實有所增加。現在停車場上似乎有更多的汽車，這推動了利用率的上升，但淨淨值仍然下降。其中一些可能是在選舉後進行的。當你在市場上與客戶交談時，人們似乎默認了這一點。

In the markets we serve, we have a lot of good things going on in the marketplaces. And I think there will be a lot of growth needs over time. It's just a matter of when that will happen. It's hard to actually pin that down, to be honest with you, Dave. But we are working as hard as we can, and we're there for our clients when they need us.

在我們服務的市場中，我們有很多好事發生。我認為隨著時間的推移，將會有很多成長需求。這只是什麼時候發生的問題。老實說，戴夫，很難真正確定這一點。但我們正在盡最大努力工作，當客戶需要我們時，我們就會為他們提供幫助。

If you look at lines, our lines can actually continue to grow. So we're actually making more lines available for our clients. So we are growing our customers and accounts from that perspective, and eventually, they will start to draw on them.

如果你看一下線路，我們的線路實際上可以繼續增長。因此，我們實際上正在為客戶提供更多線路。因此，我們從這個角度來發展我們的客戶和帳戶，最終，他們將開始利用它們。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Frank Schiraldi, Piper Sandler.

弗蘭克·席拉爾迪，派珀·桑德勒。

Morning, Daryl.

早安，達裡爾。

Morning, Frank.

早安，弗蘭克。

I know there's -- I guess, just one last one on loan growth. I mean, I know there's a lot of moving parts here. You mentioned the $136 billion in average for next quarter, which would be sort of 1% growth linked quarter.

我知道——我想，這只是關於貸款成長的最後一項。我的意思是，我知道這裡有很多活動部件。您提到下個季度的平均收入為 1,360 億美元，這相當於 1% 的成長相關季度。

Do you think that's a pretty good bogey even going forward from there, as you talk about pipelines building -- maybe [CREA] has a couple more quarters to trough. Is that a decent bogey, or do you think you could see quarterly growth maybe even accelerate from that sort of 1% linked quarter unannualized number?

當你談論管道建設時，你是否認為從那裡開始，這是一個相當好的柏忌——也許[CREA]還有幾個季度的低谷。這是一個不錯的禁忌嗎，還是您認為您可以看到季度成長甚至可能從那種 1% 的季度非年化數字加速？

We're still in the midst of our planning season for 2025, Frank. I would love to tell you that answer right now. I would say it's anywhere to maybe a little bit less than 1% continuously to maybe a little bit more than 1%. 1% might be an average, give or take.

弗蘭克，我們仍處於 2025 年的規劃季節之中。我很想現在就告訴你這個答案。我想說，它可能會持續低於 1%，也可能高於 1%。 1% 可能是平均值，無論是給予或接受。

We're going to do the right thing and support our customers and communities. That's the most important thing we do from that. We are very selective in the customers that we do business with from that.

我們將做正確的事並支持我們的客戶和社區。這是我們從中做的最重要的事情。我們對與之開展業務的客戶非常挑剔。

But that said, we will get as much growth as we think is prudent out in the marketplace. We aren't going to stretch or change our credit levels and all that. We'll just see how it plays out, but I'll give you more color in that next earnings call.

但話雖如此，我們將在市場上獲得我們認為謹慎的成長。我們不會擴大或改變我們的信用水平等等。我們只會看看結果如何，但我會在下一次財報電話會議上為您提供更多資訊。

Okay. Fair enough. And then you also talked about the repricing of the back book. And I think you just mentioned, on the security side, where you think yield could get to.

好的。很公平。然後您還談到了舊書的重新定價。我想你剛才提到了，在安全方面，你認為收益可以達到什麼程度。

If we -- just for modeling purposes, we think about the loan book repricing. You set aside rate movements for a minute -- and just -- any sort of color you can give in terms of where we sit now, which rates where they are currently, what you're seeing, or what the sort of pickup is on a quarterly basis on loan yields from the repricing of the back book?

如果我們——僅出於建模目的，我們會考慮貸款簿重新定價。你把利率變動擱置一分鐘——而且只是——你可以根據我們現在所處的位置給出任何類型的顏色，對他們當前所在的位置、你所看到的內容或正在進行的拾取類型進行評分以季度重新定價後帳簿的貸款收益率？

Yeah, so I'll give you a high level of what we're seeing this past quarter. So when you look at our C&I portfolio -- and we'll look at -- these are all fixed-rate loan categories.

是的，所以我將向您簡要介紹我們上個季度所看到的情況。因此，當您查看我們的 C&I 投資組合時（我們會看到），這些都是固定利率貸款類別。

The C&I fixed-rate loan is averaging up about 1% on what's rolling off, rolling on. The CRE is averaging up about 1.3%. Mortgage is averaging about a little over 2%, consumers at about 1.4%. Net-net, if you blend that all together, of all the fixed-rate loans rolling on, rolling off, it's around 150-basis-point benefit.

C&I 固定利率貸款在滾動滾動的情況下平均上漲約 1%。CRE 平均上漲約 1.3%。抵押貸款平均約 2% 多一點，消費者約 1.4%。淨淨額，如果你把所有這些加起來，所有滾動、滾動的固定利率貸款，大約有 150 個基點的收益。

Great. Okay. Thanks for the color.

偉大的。好的。謝謝你的顏色。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰‧潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore ISI。

Morning, Daryl.

早安，達裡爾。

Morning, John.

早安，約翰。

In terms of expenses, I mean, you put up some pretty good operating leverage this quarter. It looks like your outlook implies some continued positive operating leverage near term. Could you give us your thoughts as you look into 2025, what type of acceleration in that positive operating leverage is possible?

就費用而言，我的意思是，您本季提供了一些相當不錯的營運槓桿。看起來您的前景意味著短期內將持續存在積極的營運槓桿。展望 2025 年，您能否告訴我們您的想法，這種積極的營運槓桿可能會以何種形式加速？

I believe, right now, the Street's looking at about 150- to 200-basis-point positive operating leverage for you guys as we look into the full-year '25. Curious in your thoughts on what you believe is achievable.

我相信，現在，當我們展望 25 年全年時，華爾街正在為你們尋找大約 150 到 200 個基點的積極營運槓桿。對您認為可以實現的目標感到好奇。

Yeah. So we're still putting 2025 together. I do believe we will have positive operating leverage for 2025. Whether we're 150 or 200, I think you're in the neighborhood of where the plan will land out. But we aren't 100% have it all guided -- figured out. And everybody's agreed to it, but we will get there. I feel very confident we will get there from that.

是的。所以我們仍在整理 2025 年的數據。我確實相信 2025 年我們將擁有積極的營運槓桿。無論我們是 150 人還是 200 人，我認為您都在計劃落地的附近。但我們並沒有 100% 掌握所有的指導——弄清楚。每個人都同意這一點，但我們會實現這一目標。我非常有信心我們能夠實現這一目標。

If you look at the expenses that we guided, they were up a little bit in the fourth quarter. And that's mainly due to projects that we have. We have a fair amount of projects going on in the company, and we're making a lot of progress. We do have an increase there.

如果你看一下我們指導的費用，你會發現第四季的費用略有上升。這主要是由於我們擁有的項目。我們公司正在進行大量項目，並且取得了很大進展。我們確實在那裡有所增加。

The other thing that we're doing is, we've had a pretty good year from a performance perspective, both financially. We've made good progress on our asset quality and good loan and deposit growth, and just improving and getting some of our priorities accomplished.

我們正在做的另一件事是，從業績角度來看，無論是在財務方面，我們都度過了相當不錯的一年。我們在資產品質和良好的貸款和存款成長方面取得了良好進展，並且正在改進並完成我們的一些優先事項。

So we actually are increasing our corporate-wide incentives in the fourth quarter for payout for everybody for a good year. That said, I still feel that 2025 is going to be a better year than 2024, to be honest with you. We continue to have a lot more work to do and make progress. But we have a lot of positive momentum now and need to reward the people that are making it happen in the company and feel good about that.

因此，我們實際上在第四季度增加了全公司範圍的激勵措施，為每個人支付美好的一年。儘管如此，說實話，我仍然認為 2025 年會比 2024 年更好。我們還有很多工作要做並取得進展。但我們現在有很多積極的勢頭，需要獎勵那些在公司裡實現這一​​目標的人，並對此感到滿意。

Great. All right. Thank you. That's helpful. And then on the credit side, your loan loss reserve ratio as a percentage of loans ticked down a bit or so this quarter. I guess, they're around 162 basis points where it stands now.

偉大的。好的。謝謝。這很有幫助。然後在信貸方面，本季貸款損失準備金率佔貸款的百分比略有下降。我猜，目前的利率約為 162 個基點。

Where do you see that trending here? You cited the expected decline in criticized that you'll see in the quarter and then a pretty good trajectory there. Fair to assume continued modest decline here in that ratio. Is that fair to assume as you look out?

您在哪裡看到這種趨勢？您提到了本季批評的預期下降，然後出現了相當不錯的軌跡。可以合理地假設該比率繼續小幅下降。當你觀察時，這樣的假設公平嗎？

Yeah, I think when you look at it, this past quarter, we had some good macro factor positives, with prep fee being much more positive, that helped drive a downward drop in criticized, which is good.

是的，我認為當你看到它時，上個季度，我們有一些良好的宏觀因素積極因素，準備費用更加積極，這有助於推動批評的下降，這是好的。

I think as you look forward, though, we are growing all of our lending categories, so you have a mix change that you're seeing occur in the balance sheet. And that mix change is more heavy on the consumer side. Consumers definitely have, for the most part, higher overall spreads and yields. But they also come with higher net charge-offs. So you're seeing a mix change.

不過，我認為，正如您所期望的那樣，我們正在增加所有貸款類別，因此您會看到資產負債表中發生了混合變化。這種組合變化對消費者來說更為重要。在大多數情況下，消費者肯定擁有更高的整體利差和收益率。但它們也帶來了更高的淨沖銷。所以你會看到混合變化。

So right now, we're feeling really good where we're operating right now, around 40. Could it be a little lower than that? Maybe. Could it be a little bit higher than that? Possibly. It really depends on how quick that mix change happens.

所以現在，我們感覺非常好，我們現在的營運情況大約是 40 歲左右。能比這個低一點嗎？或許。能不能比這個高一點點？可能吧。這實際上取決於混合變化發生的速度。

We look at it -- I have it, obviously, from a net overall spread and making sure we're getting the good returns on the assets that we're putting on our balance sheet. So it's a good capital use for our shareholders. So we think we're doing the right thing from that perspective. But I think it's the mix shift that could potentially play out over the next couple years of having just a little bit higher charge-off company as we get a little bit more diversified.

讓我們看看它——顯然，我從淨總體利差中得到了它，並確保我們在資產負債表上的資產獲得了良好的回報。因此，這對我們的股東來說是一個很好的資本用途。所以我們認為從這個角度來看我們正在做正確的事情。但我認為，隨著我們變得更加多元化，未來幾年可能會發生混合轉變，沖銷公司的費用會更高一些。

John, we are really trying to be a much more diversified company, not so much 100% relying on CRE. We never were 100%. But really try to have much more diversification, so we have strong consumer businesses, C&I businesses, as well as CRE businesses, and a lot of great fee businesses like ICS and wealth out in the marketplace.

約翰，我們確實在努力成為一家更多元化的公司，而不是 100% 依賴 CRE。我們從來都不是100%的。但我們確實要努力實現更加多元化，因此我們擁有強大的消費者業務、C&I 業務以及 CRE 業務，以及市場上許多出色的收費業務（例如 ICS 和財富）。

So really, if you look at all the things that we present at the investors and all that, it's really talking more of a diversified company as we move forward.

所以說真的，如果你看看我們向投資者展示的所有東西，你會發現，隨著我們的前進，它實際上更多地是在談論多元化的公司。

Thanks, Daryl. Very helpful.

謝謝，達裡爾。非常有幫助。

Yeah.

是的。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Hey, all. This is Nathan Stein on behalf of Matt O'Connor. I wanted to ask about the NIM trajectory, given it came in strong this quarter at 3.62%, and you expect it to be low 360s next quarter. So this is above your prior guide to be in the high 350s in the second half of the year.

嘿，全部。我是內森·斯坦，代表馬特·奧康納。我想問 NIM 軌跡，因為本季度它的表現強勁，為 3.62%，您預計下季度它會降至 360 度以下。因此，這超出了您之前預計下半年將達到 350 多美元的目標。

In September, I think you'd said a 360-range NIM makes sense for next year. Have your thoughts changed regarding the NIM trajectory, given how strong it's been to date?

在 9 月份，我想您曾說過 360 範圍的 NIM 對明年來說是有意義的。考慮到迄今為止 NIM 的發展勢頭有多強勁，您對 NIM 發展軌蹟的看法是否有所改變？

So what I would tell you is that I think we feel comfortable in the low 360s for a fourth-quarter margin. And we'll give you '25 guidance in January when we do our next earnings call.

所以我想告訴你的是，我認為我們對第四季度的利潤率處於 360 度的低水平感到滿意。我們將在 1 月召開下一次財報電話會議時向您提供 '25 指導。

But we're really positive about the momentum we have. Good repricing and reactivity on the deposit side is really going well, and good roll-on and roll-off rates on our fixed-rate loan assets as well. So I think we have a lot of positive momentum.

但我們對我們所擁有的勢頭非常樂觀。存款方面良好的重新定價和反應性確實進展順利，我們的固定利率貸款資產也有良好的滾存利率和滾存利率。所以我認為我們有很多積極的勢頭。

Okay, great. And then kind of a nuanced question, but other revenue was in line with 2Q levels. And I think you previously suggested it would come down a bit on lower syndication revenues and interchange fees.

好的，太好了。然後是一個微妙的問題，但其他收入與第二季的水平一致。我想你之前曾建議，由於銀團收入和交換費的降低，它會下降。

Did those come in a bit better than you'd expected, or was it something else that kind of helped these? And then how do you expect this fee line to trend going forward?

這些結果是否比你預期的要好一點，或者是其他東西幫助了這些？那麼您預計該費用線未來的趨勢如何？

Yeah. I would say that within the other, the two largest categories are loan syndications and merchant, and card fees. Those tend to be going very well, and that's really what drives that other category of those two line items for the most part.

是的。我想說，在另一個類別中，最大的兩個類別是貸款銀團和商家以及卡片費用。這些往往進展順利，這確實是在很大程度上推動這兩個訂單項目的其他類別的原因。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Zach Westerlind, UBS.

札克韋斯特林德，瑞銀集團。

Good morning, this is Zach on for Erika. I just had a quick follow-up on the expense question. And then you mentioned that there were some projects that are going to hit in the fourth quarter. Can you just clarify if those are kind of one-time-type projects, or is that expected to stay in the run rate?

早安，我是艾莉卡的紮克。我剛剛對費用問題進行了快速跟進。然後您提到有些項目將在第四季度啟動。您能否澄清一下這些項目是否屬於一次性項目，或者預計會保持在運行速度內？

It's a mix, Zach. Some of the things that come online, like our new data centers that we're putting on, are coming online fourth quarter. That's going to be in run rate. We also have some project expenses that we have, that are more being expensed in the fourth quarter from that.

這是一個混合體，扎克。一些上線的東西，例如我們正在建造的新資料中心，將於第四季上線。這將是運行率。我們還有一些專案費用，第四季的費用更多。

So it's really a mix that we have there. We'll give you '25 guidance in January and give you good projections. But like I said, I think we're going to have good, strong, positive operating leverage in 2025. So I feel good about that, and we'll give you more specifics as we get into January.

所以我們那裡確實是一個混合體。我們將在一月份為您提供 '25 指導並為您提供良好的預測。但正如我所說，我認為到 2025 年我們將擁有良好、強勁、積極的營運槓桿。所以我對此感覺很好，我們將在進入一月份時向您提供更多細節。

Helpful. Appreciate that. And then just on the credit front, clearly, you guys have made a bunch of progress with better -- net charge-offs trending down, credit quality trends looking pretty good. Can you just remind us how you think about like a through-the-cycle charge-off number, if you're able to kind of share your thoughts around that?

有幫助。很欣賞這一點。然後，在信貸方面，顯然，你們已經取得了一系列進展，淨沖銷趨勢下降，信貸品質趨勢看起來相當不錯。如果您能分享一下您的想法，能否提醒我們您如何看待整個週期的沖銷數字？

So if you look historically, our through-the-cycle charge-off is 34 basis points. But what I said on an earlier question is that the mix of our loan portfolio is changing. And as that portfolio mix changes, having more consumer as a percentage of total loans, that will drive higher [disallowance] balances.

因此，如果你回顧歷史，我們的整個週期沖銷是 34 個基點。但我在之前的問題上說過，我們的貸款組合正在改變。隨著投資組合的變化，消費者在總貸款中所佔的比例會增加，這將推動更高的[不允許]餘額。

It's still good. We look at it to make sure that we have a good net spread on those loans, good capital return on the loans that we're making there. So it's nothing to be concerned about. It's just that it's a mix change that you have as we continue to be a more diversified company moving forward.

還是不錯的。我們會對其進行審查，以確保這些貸款有良好的淨利差，我們在那裡發放的貸款有良好的資本回報。所以沒什麼好擔心的。只是隨著我們繼續成為一家更加多元化的公司，您所面臨的組合變化。

Got it. Thanks for taking my questions.

知道了。感謝您回答我的問題。

Yup.

是的。

Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Brian Klock for any additional or closing remarks.

謝謝。此時，我想將電話轉回給 Brian Klock，以獲取任何補充或結束語。

Again, thank you, all, for participating today. And as always, if clarification of any of the items in the call or news release is necessary, please contact our Investor Relations department at area code 716-842-5138. Thank you, and have a great day.

再次感謝大家今天的參與。與往常一樣，如果需要對電話會議或新聞稿中的任何內容進行澄清，請聯絡我們的投資者關係部門，電話區號 716-842-5138。謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you. This does conclude the M&T Bank third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a great day.

謝謝。M&T 銀行 2024 年第三季財報電話會議至此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，祝您有個愉快的一天。