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Operator
Operator
Welcome to the M&T Bank fourth-quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Brian Klock, Head of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
歡迎參加 M&T 銀行 2024 年第四季和全年收益電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。現在,我想將會議移交給企業發展和投資者關係主管 Brian Klock。請繼續。
Brian Klock - Executive Vice President, Head of Market and Investor Relations
Brian Klock - Executive Vice President, Head of Market and Investor Relations
Thank you, Todd, and good morning. I'd like to thank everyone for participating in M&T's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call, both by telephone, and through the webcast. If you have not read the earnings release we issued this morning, you may access it along with the financial tables and schedules by going to our website www.mtb.com. Once there, you can click on the investor relations link, and then on the events and presentations link. Closed captioning has also been provided for webcast participants.
謝謝你,托德,早安。我要感謝大家透過電話和網路直播參加 M&T 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。如果您還沒有閱讀我們今天早上發布的收益報告,您可以訪問我們的網站 www.mtb.com 查看它以及財務表和時間表。到達那裡後,您可以點擊投資者關係鏈接,然後點擊活動和演示鏈接。也為網路直播參與者提供了隱藏字幕。
Also before we start, I'd like to mention that today's presentation may contain forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information are included in today's earnings release materials and in the investor presentation as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials.
在我們開始之前,我想提一下,今天的演講可能包含前瞻性資訊。有關此資訊的警告聲明包含在今天的收益發布資料和投資者介紹以及我們的美國證券交易委員會文件和其他投資者資料中。
The presentation also includes non-GAAP financial measures as identified in the earnings release and in the investor presentation. The appropriate reconciliations to the GAAP are included in the appendix.
本報告還包括收益報告和投資者報告中確定的非公認會計準則財務指標。附錄中包含了與 GAAP 的適當對帳。
Joining me on the call this morning is M&T's Senior Executive Vice President and CFO, Daryl Bible. And I'd like to turn the call over to Daryl.
今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的還有 M&T 高級執行副總裁兼財務長 Daryl Bible。我想將電話轉給 Daryl。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Thank you, Brian, and good morning everyone. First, I'd like to begin with our purpose on slide 3. M&T's success continues to be driven by our purpose, making a difference in people's lives. We do this by not only empowering our customers to meet their financial needs, but by supporting the communities where we live and work.
謝謝你,布萊恩,大家早安。首先,我想從投影片 3 上的我們的目的開始講。M&T 的成功繼續由我們的目標所推動,即為人們的生活帶來改變。我們這樣做不僅是為了幫助客戶滿足他們的財務需求,也是為了支持我們生活和工作的社區。
As M&T continues to grow, we remain committed to a relationship-based model. We believe our unique knowledge of customers, capital, and community allows us to deliver customized solutions that make an impact. In 2024, this impact was evident across the footprint.
隨著M&T的不斷發展,我們依然致力於以關係為基礎的模式。我們相信,我們對客戶、資本和社區的獨特了解使我們能夠提供產生影響的客製化解決方案。到 2024 年,這種影響將在整個足跡中顯現出來。
In addition to the positive social, environmental, and governance accomplishments highlighted on slide 4, this December M&T issued our first sustainability bond in conjunction with the publication of our sustainability financing framework, which will guide future issuances.
除了幻燈片 4 中強調的積極的社會、環境和治理成就之外,今年 12 月,M&T 還發行了首隻可持續發展債券,同時發布了可持續發展融資框架,該框架將指導未來的發行。
As highlighted on slide 5, M&T to garner -- continues to garner awards for the work in 2024, including recognition from industry of our talent achievements and local charitable efforts.
正如幻燈片 5 所強調的那樣,M&T 將在 2024 年繼續獲得獎項,包括業界對我們的人才成就和當地慈善工作的認可。
Now let's turn to slides 7 and 8. Before we get into the fourth quarter, I want to pause and reflect on some of the highlights for 2024. First, I want to take a moment to recognize the hard work and dedication of our 22,000 colleagues, who allowed us to have such a successful year.
現在讓我們翻到幻燈片 7 和 8。在進入第四季度之前,我想停下來回顧一下 2024 年的一些亮點。首先,我要感謝我們 22,000 名同事的辛勤工作和奉獻精神,他們使我們度過瞭如此成功的一年。
In 2024, we focused on four priorities, including building our New England and Long Island markets, optimizing our resources through simplification, making our systems and processes resilient and scalable, and continuing to develop and scale our risk management.
2024 年,我們專注於四個優先事項,包括建立新英格蘭和長島市場、透過簡化優化資源、使我們的系統和流程具有彈性和可擴展性,以及繼續開發和擴大我們的風險管理。
The progress we made on these priorities and related enterprise initiatives will allow the bank to continue to grow and scale in coming years. Our focus on fundamentals is reflected in several of our financial accomplishments in 2024.
我們在這些優先事項和相關企業措施上的進展將使該銀行在未來幾年繼續發展和擴大規模。我們對基本面的關注體現在我們 2024 年的多項財務成就中。
We executed our financial plan for the year and the results met or exceeded the outlook we discussed last January for NII, fee income, expenses, and average loans and deposits. We made significant progress on our CRE concentration, reaching what we believe is a target level.
我們執行了今年的財務計劃,結果達到或超過了我們去年 1 月討論的 NII、費用收入、支出以及平均貸款和存款的前景。我們在企業房地產集中度方面取得了重大進展,達到了我們認為的目標水準。
Our capital levels continue to grow through the year and remain strong, as we restarted our share repurchase program in the third quarter. We actively managed our interest rate sensitivity through our hedging program and securities portfolio, to shift our balance sheet toward a more rate neutral position.
由於我們在第三季重啟了股票回購計劃,我們的資本水準全年持續成長並保持強勁。我們透過對沖計劃和證券組合積極管理我們的利率敏感性,從而將我們的資產負債表轉向更利率中立的位置。
We manage credit riskm meaningfully reducing non-accrual and commercial criticized balances and having net charge-offs come in largely in line with our expectations. This focus on the fundamentals positions M&T for 2025 and beyond, and is reflected in our 2024 results, with net operating earnings per share of $14.88, ROTA and ROTCE of 1.3% and 14.54%, and 11% growth in tangible book value per share.
我們管理信用風險,有效減少不提列和商業批評餘額,淨沖銷基本上符合我們的預期。對基本面的關注為M&T 2025 年及以後的發展做好了準備,這也反映在我們的2024 年業績中,每股淨營業收益為14.88 美元,ROTA 和ROTCE 分別為1.3% 和14.54%,每股有形帳面價值成長11%。
Turn to slide 9, which shows the results for the fourth quarter. Our fourth quarter results reflect the continuation of a strong performance we have through the year. There are several successes to highlight. NII was largely stable compared to the third quarter, even considering 100 basis points in rate cuts since the start of the easing cycle in September.
翻到投影片 9,它顯示的是第四季的結果。我們的第四季業績反映出我們全年強勁表現的延續。有幾項成功例子值得強調。即使考慮到自 9 月寬鬆週期開始以來利率已下調 100 個基點,NII 與第三季相比仍基本穩定。
Average total loans grew for the fifth consecutive quarter, demonstrating our ability to more than offset the planned reduction in our CRE concentration. Average total deposits grew by over $3 billion sequentially, while interest bearing deposit costs declined 24 basis points, reflecting the quality of our deposit franchise.
平均貸款總額連續第五個季度增長,顯示我們有能力抵消商業房地產集中度計劃的減少。平均總存款環比增長超過 30 億美元,而計息存款成本下降 24 個基點,反映了我們存款特許經營的品質。
We excluded $200 million -- we executed $200 million in share repurchases and grew CET1 ratio to 11.67%. Fee income excluding notable items reached another high point for the fourth quarter, aided by the strength in mortgage and trust. Asset quality continued to improve, with a $1 billion reduction in commercial criticized loans, and $236 million reduction in non-accrual loans.
我們扣除了 2 億美元——我們執行了 2 億美元的股票回購,並將 CET1 比率提高至 11.67%。由於抵押貸款和信託業務的強勁增長,扣除重大項目的費用收入在第四季度再創高點。資產品質持續改善,商業銀行不良貸款減少10億美元,非應計貸款減少2.36億美元。
Now let's look at the specifics for the fourth quarter. Diluted earnings per share were $3.86, down from $4.02 in the prior quarter. Net income for the quarter was $681 million compared to $721 million in the linked quarter.
現在我們來看看第四季的具體情況。每股攤薄收益為 3.86 美元,低於上一季的 4.02 美元。本季淨收入為 6.81 億美元,上季為 7.21 億美元。
M&T's fourth quarter results produced an ROA and ROCE of 1.28% and 9.75% respectively. The CET1 ratio remains strong, growing to 11.67% at the end of the fourth quarter. And tangible book value per share grew 1%.
M&T 第四季的業績顯示,ROA 和 ROCE 分別為 1.28% 和 9.75%。CET1比率依然強勁,第四季末成長至11.67%。每股有形帳面價值成長了 1%。
The fourth quarter included several notable items, a securities gain of $18 million or $0.08 per share related to the sale of non-core investments, expense associated with the redemption of certain M&T trust preferred obligations amounting to $20 million or $0.09 per share, this action has a three year earn back.
第四季包括幾個值得注意的項目,與出售非核心投資有關的證券收益為1800 萬美元或每股0.08 美元,與贖回某些M&T 信託優先債務相關的費用為2000 萬美元或每股0.09美元,這項行動有三年的回報期。
Corporate real estate optimization related to expenses amounting to $27 million or $0.12 per share, and a pension related credit within expenses amounting to $12 million or $0.05 per share benefit.
企業房地產優化相關費用為 2,700 萬美元或每股 0.12 美元,以及費用內的退休金相關信貸為 1,200 萬美元或每股 0.05 美元。
Slide 10 includes supplemental reporting of M&T's results on net operating or tangible basis. M&T's net operating income for the fourth quarter was $691 million or $731 million in the linked quarter.
投影片 10 包括 M&T 基於淨營業利潤或有形資產的補充報告。M&T 第四季的淨營業收入為 6.91 億美元,上季為 7.31 億美元。
Diluted net operating earnings per share were $3.92 for the recent quarter, down from $4.08 in the prior quarter. Net operating income yielded an ROTA and ROTCE and 1.35% and 14.66% for the recent quarter.
本季每股攤薄淨營業收益為 3.92 美元,低於上一季的 4.08 美元。最近一個季度的淨營業收入產生了 ROTA 和 ROTCE 分別為 1.35% 和 14.66%。
Next, we look a little deeper into the underlying trends that generated our fourth quarter results. Please turn to slide 11. Taxable equivalent net interest income was $1.74 billion, largely unchanged from the linked quarter.
接下來,我們將更深入探討影響第四季業績的根本趨勢。請翻到第 11 張投影片。應稅等值淨利息收入為 17.4 億美元,與上一季基本持平。
NII for the fourth quarter was $25 million, and non-accrual interest compared to $12 million in the third quarter. And net interest margin was 3.58%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the prior quarter. And the primary drivers of a decrease to the margin were a negative 10 basis points related to lower contribution of free funds, partially offset by a positive 3 basis points on the fixed asset -- fixed rate asset repricing, deposit 3 basis points from higher non-accrual interest.
第四季的NII為2500萬美元,非應計利息為1200萬美元,而第三季為1200萬美元。淨利差為3.58%,較上季下降4個基點。而導致保證金減少的主要因素是自由資金貢獻減少導致的負10 個基點,但被固定資產重新定價導致的正3 個基點部分抵銷-固定利率資產重新定價、存款利率因非經常性收入增加而下降3 個基點。
Turn to slide 13 to talk about average loans. Average loans and leases increased $1 billion to $135.7 billion. C&I and consumer growth continue to outpace the decline in CRE, similar to the trend in the past several quarters.
翻到第 13 張幻燈片討論平均貸款。平均貸款和租賃增加了 10 億美元,達到 1,357 億美元。商業與工業且消費者成長持續超過CRE的下降,與過去幾季的趨勢類似。
C&I loans grew 2% to $60.7 billion, driven by strength in dealer commercial services, fund banking, and corporate and institutional. CRE loans declined 4% to $27.9 billion. CRE as a percent of Tier 1 capital and the allowance is estimated to be 136% at the end of the fourth quarter.
受經銷商商業服務、基金銀行以及企業和機構業務強勁推動,商業和工業貸款成長 2%,至 607 億美元。商業房地產貸款下降 4% 至 279 億美元。卓越房地產經紀佔一級資本的百分比,預計第四季末的撥備額為 136%。
Residential mortgage loans were relatively unchanged at $23.1 billion. Consumer loans grew 5% to $24 billion, reflecting increases in recreational finance and indirect auto loans. Loan yields decreased 21 basis points to 6.17% as lower rates on variable loans were partially offset by fixed rate loan repricing, a smaller drag related to cash flow hedges, and higher non-accrual interest.
住宅抵押貸款相對保持不變,為 231 億美元。消費貸款成長 5%,達到 240 億美元,反映了休閒金融和間接汽車貸款的成長。貸款收益率下降 21 個基點至 6.17%,因為浮動利率貸款利率的下降被固定利率貸款重新定價、現金流量對沖相關的拖累較小以及非應計利息的增加部分抵消。
Turning to slide 14, our liquidity remains strong. At the end of the fourth quarter, investment securities and cash including cash out at the Fed totaled $54.8 billion, representing 26% of total assets. Average investment securities increased $2.7 billion. The yield on investment securities increased 18 basis points to 3.88%, as the yield on new purchases exceeded the yield on maturing securities.
轉到第 14 張投影片,我們的流動性仍然強勁。截至第四季末,美聯儲存放現金(包括現金流出)等投資證券及現金總額為548億美元,佔總資產的26%。平均投資證券增加了 27 億美元。投資證券收益率上升18個基點至3.88%,因為新購買的收益率超過了到期證券的收益率。
In the fourth quarter, we purchased over $3.3 billion in securities at an average rate of 4.96%. The duration of the investment portfolio at the end of the quarter was 3.7 years, and the unrealized pre-tax loss on the available for sale portfolio was $205 million or 10 basis points CET1 drag, if included in regulatory capital.
第四季度,我們以平均4.96%的利率購買了超過33億美元的證券。季度末投資組合的久期為 3.7 年,可供出售投資組合的未實現稅前損失為 2.05 億美元,或 10 個基點的 CET1 拖累(如果計入監管資本)。
Turning to slide 15, we remain focused on growing customer deposits and saw a solid deposit growth in the fourth quarter. Average total deposits rose $3.1 billion or 2% to $164.6 billion, reflecting $2.6 billion increase in non-broker deposits.
轉到第 15 頁,我們仍然專注於增加客戶存款,並在第四季度看到存款穩定成長。平均總存款增加 31 億美元或 2%,達到 1,646 億美元,其中非經紀存款增加 26 億美元。
Deposit growth was concentrated in commercial, business banking, and institutional services. While consumer deposits declined, reflecting lower time deposit balances. Average non-interest bearing deposits rose $0.4 billion to $46.5 billion, primarily related to trust demand deposits within our institutional services segment.
存款成長集中在商業、企業銀行和機構服務領域。而消費者存款則下降,反映出定期存款餘額的減少。平均無息存款增加 0.4 億美元至 465 億美元,主要與我們機構服務部門內的信託活期存款有關。
Non-interest bearing deposits were largely stable in our other segments. Excluding broker deposits, the average non-interest bearing deposit mix in the fourth quarter was 30.4%. Interest bearing deposit costs decreased 24 basis points to 2.64%.
我們其他部門的無利息存款基本上穩定。不包括經紀人存款,第四季平均無息存款結構為 30.4%。計息存款成本下降24個基點至2.64%。
Continuing on slide 16 non-interest income was $657 million compared to $606 million in the linked quarter. Trust income increased $5 million to $175 million from higher sales and fees in corporate trust and agency services. Mortgage banking revenues were $117 million compared to $109 million in the third quarter.
繼續看第 16 張投影片,非利息收入為 6.57 億美元,而上一季為 6.06 億美元。由於企業信託和代理服務的銷售額和費用增加,信託收入增加了 500 萬美元,達到 1.75 億美元。抵押貸款銀行收入為 1.17 億美元,而第三季為 1.09 億美元。
Commercial mortgage banking revenues were the main driver, increasing $7 million from the linked quarter to $41 million, reflecting higher gains on the sale of commercial mortgage loans. Other revenues from operation increased $24 million to $176 million, from a $23 million distribution from M&T's investment in BLG and strong syndication and other loan and letter of credit fees, which increased $5 million. Security gains of $18 million mostly reflect the realized gains on the sale of non-core investments.
商業抵押貸款銀行收入是主要推動力,較上一季增加 700 萬美元,達到 4,100 萬美元,反映出商業抵押貸款銷售收益增加。其他營運收入增加了 2,400 萬美元,達到 1.76 億美元,其中 M&T 對 BLG 的投資分配為 2,300 萬美元,強勁的銀團貸款和其他貸款及信用證費用增加了 500 萬美元。1800萬美元的證券收益主要反映非核心投資出售所實現的收益。
Turning to slide 17, non-interest expenses were $1.36 billion, an increase of $60 million from the prior quarter. Salaries and benefits increased $15 million to $790 million, inclusive of higher incentive compensation. Equipment and occupancy increased $8 million to $133 million from our new data center starting to come online.
第 17 頁,非利息支出為 13.6 億美元,比上一季增加了 6,000 萬美元。工資和福利增加了 1500 萬美元,達到 7.9 億美元,其中包括更高的激勵薪酬。隨著我們的新資料中心開始投入使用,設備和占用費增加了 800 萬美元,達到 1.33 億美元。
Other costs from operations increase $40 million to $168 million, reflecting the redemption of certain M&T trust preferred obligations and expenses associated with corporate real estate optimization, partially offset by pension related credit. The efficiency ratio was 56.8% compared to 55% in the third quarter. On an adjusted basis when excluding notable items, the efficiency ratio was 55.3%.
其他營運成本增加 4,000 萬美元,達到 1.68 億美元,反映了某些 M&T 信託優先債務的贖回以及與企業房地產優化相關的費用,部分被退休金相關信貸所抵消。效率比率為56.8%,而第三季為55%。經過調整後,剔除重大項目,效率比率為55.3%。
Next let's turn to slide 18 for credit. Net interest charge offs for the quarter totaled $160 million or 47 basis points, up from 35 basis points in the linked quarter. The two largest charge offs totaled $34 million and more C&I loans in unrelated industries, one, a marine dealer and the other in manufacturing.
接下來我們翻到第 18 張投影片來看。本季淨利息沖銷總額為 1.6 億美元,即 47 個基點,高於上一季的 35 個基點。兩筆最大的沖銷總額為 3,400 萬美元,以及無關行業的更多 C&I 貸款,其中一筆是船舶經銷商,另一筆是製造業。
Overall CRE related charge offs remain modest. Net charge offs for the full year were 41 basis points, which is in line with our expectations. Non-accrual loans decreased to $36 million or 12% to $1.7 billion. Non-accrual ratio decreased 17 basis points to 1.25%, driven largely by upgrades out of non-accrual as well as pay offs and charge offs.
總體而言,CRE 相關的沖銷額仍然不大。全年淨沖銷額為 41 個基點,符合我們的預期。非應計貸款減少至 3,600 萬美元,降幅 12%,至 17 億美元。非應計比率下降 17 個基點至 1.25%,主要由於非應計費用的升級以及還款和沖銷。
In the fourth quarter, we recorded a provision of $140 million, compared to net charge offs of $160 million. The allowance to loan ratio decreased 1 basis point to 1.61%, partially related to the reduction in criticized loans including those in non-accrual status.
第四季度,我們記錄了 1.4 億美元的撥備,而淨沖銷額為 1.6 億美元。撥備貸款比率下降1個基點至1.61%,部分與受批評的貸款(包括非應計貸款)的減少有關。
Please turn to slide 19. When we file our 10-K in February, we estimate that the level of criticized loans to be $9.9 billion compared to $10.9 billion at the end of September. The improvement from the linked quarter was driven by a $302 million decline in C&I, and $691 million decline in CRE criticized balances. Within C&I, the decline in criticized was concentrated in services, health services and dealer segments.
請翻到第 19 張投影片。當我們在二月提交 10-K 報告時,我們估計被批評的貸款金額為 99 億美元,而九月底的數字為 109 億美元。與上一季相比,業績改善的原因是,C&I 下降 3.02 億美元,以及 CRE 受批評餘額下降 6.91 億美元。在消費與工業領域,受到批評的減少主要集中在服務、醫療服務和經銷商領域。
The CRE criticized decline was primarily within office, retail, health care, hotel and construction. Improve cash flows in many of the portfolios that were impacted by COVID, namely health care, hotel and retail, and active refinance market helped drive the improvement in CRE criticized.
受到批評的CRE下滑主要發生在辦公室、零售、醫療保健、旅館和建築領域。改善受 COVID 影響的許多投資組合的現金流,即醫療保健、酒店和零售業,以及活躍的再融資市場有助於推動受到批評的 CRE 的改善。
Turning to slide 22 for capital. M&T's CET1 ratio at the end of the fourth quarter was an estimated 11.67% compared to 11.54% at the end of the third quarter. The increase was due to continued strong earnings, net of $200 million in share repurchases.
翻到第 22 張投影片,了解資本。M&T 第四季末的 CET1 比率估計為 11.67%,而第三季末為 11.54%。成長的原因在於持續強勁的獲利,扣除 2 億美元的股票回購。
At the end of the year, the negative AOCI impact in the CET1 ratio from the available for sale portfolio and the pension related components combined would be approximately 4 basis points.
截至年底,可供出售投資組合和退休金相關部分對 CET1 比率造成的 AOCI 負面影響約為 4 個基點。
Now let's turn to slide 24 for outlook. Let's begin with the economic backdrop. Economy again remained resilient to the end of the year. We estimate GDP growth will come in at 2.8% for 2024, with the fourth quarter data is published.
現在我們翻到第 24 張投影片來了解展望。讓我們先從經濟背景開始。到年底,經濟再次保持彈性。隨著第四季數據的公佈,我們預計 2024 年 GDP 成長率將達到 2.8%。
Consumer spending remains solid, though we know challenges for some segments reflected by increasing credit delinquency. The labor market remained sturdy in the fourth quarter, while job growth and wage growth, supportive of consumer spending continued economic expansion.
儘管我們知道信貸違約增加等因素反映出某些領域面臨挑戰,但消費支出仍保持穩健。第四季勞動市場維持強勁,就業成長和薪資成長支撐消費支出,推動經濟持續擴張。
We continue to see a soft landing as the most likely outcome for the US economy. Inflation ticked up a bit in the fourth quarter, but we expect it will decelerate going forward. With the economic backdrop, let's review our non-interest income outlook.
我們仍然認為軟著陸是美國經濟最有可能的結果。通貨膨脹率在第四季度略有上升,但我們預計未來將會放緩。在經濟背景下,讓我們回顧一下我們的非利息收入前景。
We expect tangible equivalent net interest income to be $7.1 billion to $7.2 billion, with the net interest margin increasing through the year and averaging in the mid-360s. Our interest rate sensitivity remains relatively neutral, aided by the balance sheet actions we took in 2024, including adding forward starting hedges and building our securities portfolio.
我們預計有形等值淨利息收入將達到 71 億美元至 72 億美元,淨利差將全年增加,平均達到 360 左右。我們的利率敏感度保持相對中性,這得益於我們在 2024 年採取的資產負債表行動,包括增加遠期對沖和建立我們的證券投資組合。
However, shifts in the shape of the yield curve will drive variability in the NII outlook. We expect full year average loan and lease balances to be $137 billion to $139 billion. This reflects continuing growth in C&I and consumer, with more modest growth in residential mortgages.
然而,殖利率曲線形狀的變化將導致 NII 前景的變化。我們預計全年平均貸款和租賃餘額為 1,370 億美元至 1,390 億美元。這反映了工商業和消費支出的持續成長,而住宅抵押貸款的成長則較為溫和。
Four year average commercial real estate balances are expected to decline in 2024, but we expect the balances to grow modestly in the second half of the year as we build the pipeline and begin to offset pay offs and pay downs with new originations.
預計 2024 年四年平均商業房地產餘額將下降,但隨著我們建立管道並開始用新資金抵消還款和還首付款,我們預計下半年餘額將小幅增長。
Four year average deposit balances are expected to be $164 billion to $166 billion. We remain focused on growing customer deposits at a reasonable cost, and expect to reduce our reliance on non-customer funding sources.
預計四年平均存款餘額為 1,640 億美元至 1,660 億美元。我們仍然專注於以合理的成本增加客戶存款,並期望減少對非客戶資金來源的依賴。
Turning to fee income, we expect non-interest income to be $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion. A continued growth in non-interest income is driven by growth in our core businesses which we expect will drive higher revenues and mortgage banking, merchant trust and service charges.
談到費用收入,我們預計非利息收入為 25 億美元至 26 億美元。非利息收入的持續成長是由我們核心業務的成長所推動的,我們預計這將推動更高的收入和抵押銀行、商業信託和服務費。
Additional mortgage subservicing which is included in our outlook adds to our ongoing growth. The interest rate environment remains dynamic. However, our diversified product set should help provide relative stability from our fee income businesses.
我們展望中包含的額外抵押貸款次級服務將有助於我們的持續成長。利率環境依然動態。然而,我們多樣化的產品組合應該有助於為我們的手續費收入業務提供相對的穩定性。
Continuing with expenses, we anticipate total non-interest expense including intangible amortization to be $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion. The outlook includes our first quarter seasonal salary and benefit increase, which is estimated to be $110 million. Also included in the outlook is approximately $43 million for intangible amortization.
繼續討論費用,我們預計包括無形攤銷在內的總非利息費用將達到 54 億美元至 55 億美元。該預期包括我們第一季的季節性工資和福利成長,預計為 1.1 億美元。預期中還包括約 4,300 萬美元的無形資產攤銷。
Our business clients remain focused on closely managing their expenses, allowing the bank to make targeted investments in projects and business opportunities that support our enterprise priorities. Regarding credit, we expect net charge offs for the full year to again be near 40 basis points, with continued normalization in the consumer portfolio and improvements from commercial credit costs.
我們的商業客戶仍然專注於密切管理他們的費用,這使得銀行能夠對支持我們企業重點的專案和商業機會進行有針對性的投資。至於信貸方面,我們預計全年淨沖銷額將再次接近 40 個基點,消費組合將繼續正常化,商業信貸成本也將改善。
We expect taxable equivalent tax rate to be approximately 24.5%. As it relates to capital, we expect to reach 11% CET1 ratio in 2025, with our 11.67% CET1 ratio at the end of 2024, and the expectation for continued strong capital generation. Quarterly share repurchases are expected to be higher than the third and fourth quarter of 2024.
我們預計應稅等值稅率約為24.5%。在資本方面,我們預計 2025 年 CET1 比率將達到 11%,2024 年底 CET1 比率將達到 11.67%,並且預計將繼續強勁成長資本。預計季度股票回購量將高於 2024 年第三季和第四季。
In 2025, we remain committed to our four priorities, including growing our New England and Long Island markets, optimizing resources through simplification, making our systems resilient and scalable, and continuing to scale and develop our risk management capabilities. Continued progress and completion of these priorities will enable the bank to continue to grow in the future, both organically and inorganically.
2025 年,我們將繼續致力於四大重點,包括發展新英格蘭和長島市場、透過簡化優化資源、增強系統彈性和可擴展性,以及繼續擴大和發展我們的風險管理能力。這些優先事項的持續推進和完成將使該銀行未來能夠繼續實現有機和無機成長。
To conclude on slide 25. Our results underscore an optimistic investment thesis. M&T has always been a purpose driven organization, with successful business model that benefits all stakeholders including shareholders.
最後在投影片 25 上結束。我們的結果強調了樂觀的投資論點。M&T 一直是目標驅動的組織,擁有成功的商業模式,使包括股東在內的所有利害關係人受益。
We have a long track record of credit outperforming through all economic cycles while growing within the markets we serve. We remain focused on shareholder returns and consistent dividend growth. And finally, we are a disciplined acquirer and prudent spirit of shareholder capital.
我們在信貸方面擁有長期優異的業績記錄,經歷了各個經濟週期,並在我們服務的市場中不斷發展。我們仍然關注股東回報和持續的股息成長。最後,我們是一家紀律嚴明的收購者,具有審慎的股東資本精神。
Now let's open the call to questions before which Todd will briefly review the instructions.
現在讓我們開始提問,在此之前,Todd 將簡要回顧一下說明。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.
(操作員指示) 摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Hi, good morning.
嗨,早安。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Good morning, Manan.
早安,馬南。
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Daryl, can you unpack your comments on capital and buybacks? I think you've said previously that you can stay above an 11% CET1 ratio, and do about $2 billion in buybacks. I don't know if I should be reading too much into the tilde 11% guide on CET1. Does that imply you can do more than $2 billion this year and bring that capital ratio down from 11.7%?
達裡爾,您能闡述一下對資本和回購的評論嗎?我記得您之前曾說過,您可以保持 11% 以上的 CET1 比率,並進行約 20 億美元的回購。我不知道我是否應該過度解讀 CET1 的 11% 指南。這是否意味著你今年可以投入超過 20 億美元,並將資本比率從 11.7% 降至最低?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Manan, we feel comfortable that we can basically operate our company at 11%, where we are today, and what the economy looks like, and all that. So our plans are to bring our ratios down throughout the year. We'll be opportunistic from that, but it's also going to be driven by our RWA growth, how much our loan growth is and all that.
馬南,我們對公司基本上能夠以 11% 的成長率運作感到很放心,不管我們現在的狀況如何,也不管經濟狀況如何。因此,我們的計劃是全年降低這一比例。我們會從中抓住機會,但這也將受到我們的 RWA 成長、我們的貸款成長多少等等因素的驅動。
We aren't going to push and make loans that don't make sense. We're going to do what is what we always do, to serve our customers and communities. But it's fluid right now, whether we're going to have a strong loan growth in '25 or something maybe not as strong.
我們不會推銷或發放不合理的貸款。我們將會一如既往地為客戶和社區服務。但目前情況還不確定,我們在 25 年的貸款是否會強勁成長,或者可能不會那麼強勁。
So we'll have a lot of flexibility there to do that. But if the plan came out, and we actually hit our plan that we expect for '25, we'd probably do a little bit over $2 billion with that loan growth. If we have less loan growth, we'll do more share repurchase. If we have more loan growth, we do less share repurchase.
因此,我們可以有很大的靈活性來做到這一點。但如果計劃出台,而我們確實實現了預計 25 年的計劃,那麼我們的貸款成長可能會略超過 20 億美元。如果我們的貸款成長減少,我們將進行更多的股票回購。如果我們的貸款成長更多,我們就會減少股票回購。
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Great, very clear. Thank you. And on criticized loans, they were done nicely about $1 billion. The question is what is driving that the most right now, and what matters most for that to continue to come down in 2025? Is it the short end, the long end? Is it getting updated financials from your borrowers and the upgrades that come from that? What's most important from here?
很好,非常清楚。謝謝。對於受到批評的貸款,他們妥善處理了約 10 億美元。問題是,目前推動這一趨勢的主要因素是什麼?是短端,還是長端?它是否從借款人那裡獲得最新的財務資訊以及由此帶來的升級?從現在起什麼才是最重要的?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah. So for the fourth quarter, what really drove it was, if you remember the yield curve really dropped in August September time frame, and we were able to get a lot of placements with a lot of our customers through our RCC business. So the highest percentage of reduction in our criticized balances was basically full pay offs.
是的。因此,對於第四季度來說,真正的推動因素是,如果您還記得的話,殖利率曲線在 8 月至 9 月期間確實下降了,我們能夠透過 RCC 業務與許多客戶進行大量配售。因此,我們所批評的餘額減少的最高百分比基本上是全額還清。
The next largest high was upgrades. So we still have a lot of businesses still curing and getting better. We talked about it in prepared remarks, some of the COVID industries that were impacted now have much stronger P&Ls, and that's impacting.
下一個最高值是升級。因此,我們仍有許多企業正在努力康復並變得更好。我們在準備好的演講中談到了這一點,一些受到影響的 COVID 行業現在擁有更強勁的損益表,這正在產生影響。
And then finally, we did have some partial pay downs and some charge offs. But the biggest driver was that the yield curve. Now as you look into 2025, right now, the yield curve is a lot steeper than it was back at the end of the third quarter.
最後,我們確實有一些部分付款和一些沖銷。但最大的驅動因素是殖利率曲線。現在展望 2025 年,目前的殖利率曲線比第三季末的殖利率曲線陡峭得多。
So if it stays in that neighborhood and we're up 90 basis points-plus, we'll probably have less loans being cured by permanent placements from that perspective. So I think some of the curing of the criticized might slow down a bit.
因此,如果利率保持在這個區間,並且上漲 90 個基點以上,從這個角度來看,透過永久性存款解決的貸款可能會減少。因此我認為對一些受到批評的解決速度可能會慢一點。
The pace of the Fed reductions, right now it's one or two reductions in 2025, that really helps our C&I portfolio, mainly in the leverage lending area. And if that continues to come down more than that, that would be more positive. So we still expect to have improvement in our criticized commercial loans.
聯準會降息的步伐,目前是2025年降息一到兩次,這確實有助於我們的C&I投資組合,主要是在槓桿貸款領域。如果這一數字繼續下降,那將是更積極的。因此,我們仍然希望受到批評的商業貸款能夠有所改善。
But from what we see today, based upon the projections of the Fed, and based upon where the yield curve is today, we'll have a much more modest reduction than what we had in 2024. But the good news is we got basically out of a lot of credits that were higher risk, and our criticized balances that we have left on the books right now are a better quality criticized book. So we feel really good at where we are.
但從我們今天看到的情況來看,根據聯準會的預測,以及根據今天的殖利率曲線,我們的降幅將比 2024 年小得多。但好消息是,我們基本上擺脫了大量高風險的信貸,現在我們帳面上剩餘的受批評餘額是品質更好的受批評帳簿。所以我們對自己目前的狀況感到非常滿意。
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
So it sounds like from a credit perspective, from a charge off perspective, your outlook hasn't really changed. And I know in the past, you've said that you've been a lot more punitive on classifying those criticized loans.
因此,從信用角度、從沖銷角度來看,您的觀點並沒有真正改變。我知道,您過去曾說過,對那些受到批評的貸款進行分類時會採取更加嚴厲的措施。
So as the base of decline in the criticized loans slows, does that change how you're thinking about the actual impact to the income statement from the credit of the portfolio? Or is that still pretty much in line with how you thought about it before?
那麼,隨著受到批評的貸款基數下降放緩,這是否會改變您對投資組合信貸對損益表的實際影響的看法?或者這仍然與您之前的想法一致?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
So from a charge off perspective, I know that's not through the income statement, our retail consumer portfolios are normalizing. So we think that's going to be a little bit higher than what it was in '24. But we believe that our commercial credits, both C&I and CRE will continue to come down in net charge offs.
因此,從沖銷的角度來看,我知道這不是透過損益表,我們的零售消費者投資組合正在正常化。因此我們認為這將比24年的水平略高一些。但我們相信,我們的商業信用(包括C&I和CRE)的淨沖銷額將繼續下降。
Now from a provision perspective, I think provision wise, we feel really good at our current allowance levels, and when you look at what we're could see in the future, we would expect allowance levels to basically based upon the growth that we have in loans, coupled with the economic conditions that basically impact these industries.
現在從撥備的角度來看,我認為撥備方面,我們對目前的撥備水平感到非常滿意,當你看到我們未來可能看到的情況時,我們預計撥備水平將基本基於我們現有的成長貸款,再加上影響這些產業的經濟狀況。
Right now, the economic conditions and what we're seeing from the models and the projections are pretty tame. But we're having some loan growth, so we're providing to it from that perspective. Depending on loan growth, we'll provide more on day one. If we have less loan growth, we'll have less provision.
目前,我們從模型和預測中看到的經濟狀況相當溫和。但我們的貸款正在成長,所以我們從這個角度提供貸款。根據貸款成長情況,我們將在第一天提供更多貸款。如果貸款成長放緩,我們的撥備也會減少。
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah.
是的。
Operator
Operator
Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research.
比爾‧卡卡什(Bill Carcache),沃爾夫研究公司。
Bill Carcache - Analyst
Bill Carcache - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning Daryl.
謝謝。早安,達裡爾。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Morning.
早晨。
Bill Carcache - Analyst
Bill Carcache - Analyst
I wanted to start off on the progress you've made in reducing your CRE exposure. It's been well reflected in your declining stress capital buffer. But as you reflect on that improvement, what's been the response from the client side, you're there for them. But have they noticed a difference as you've actively taken that concentration ratio from 136% -- on to 136% from 183%.
我想先介紹一下你在減少 CRE 風險方面取得的進展。這充分反映在您不斷下降的壓力資本緩衝。但是,當您反思這種改進時,客戶端的反應是什麼,您就在那裡為他們服務。但是,當您主動將集中度從 136% 提升至 183% 時,他們是否注意到了差異?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
You know, I would say, Peter D'Arcy and his team have done a tremendous job, really managing through what we've been going through the last couple of years. We have been basically doing some more placements with some of our customers.
你知道,我想說,彼得·達西 (Peter D’Arcy) 和他的團隊做得非常出色,他們確實幫助我們度過了過去幾年所經歷的一切。我們基本上一直在與一些客戶進行更多的安置。
\We did some few sales as well over the last couple of years. But those have been more what I would call non-core customer related relationships for the most part. So we're -- our core customer base is still intact. Even though we weren't really lending much in CRE over the last couple of years, they are now know that the pipeline is open and we're now working with them.
\過去幾年我們也做了一些銷售。但在大多數情況下,這些更多的是我所說的非核心客戶相關關係。因此,我們的核心客戶群仍然完好無損。儘管過去幾年我們並沒有在商業房地產領域提供太多貸款,但他們現在知道管道已經暢通,而且我們正在與他們合作。
If we actually look at the pipeline in CRE, we have about a $1.5 billion in pipeline now there, which is starting to build, which is nice. But I say overall, I think our core customers are still very loyal and support M&T. And the ones that haven't been supportive of their credits or more financial oriented were the ones that we kind of we are more aggressive on, trying to put them out of the bank.
如果我們實際上看一下 CRE 中的管道,我們現在有大約 15 億美元的管道,並且正在開始建設,這是一件好事。但總的來說,我認為我們的核心客戶仍然非常忠誠並支持 M&T。而那些不支持信貸或缺乏金融意識的銀行,我們會採取更積極的措施,試圖將他們從銀行中趕出去。
Bill Carcache - Analyst
Bill Carcache - Analyst
As a follow-up on your earlier credit comments, Daryl could you frame the stress in the portfolio if we were to get no more cuts from here versus two to three more? Is it going to be enough relief for some of your borrowers if we didn't get any more cuts from here?
作為您先前關於信貸評論的後續問題,Daryl,如果我們不再降息,而是再降息兩到三次,您能否描述一下投資組合面臨的壓力?如果我們不再採取任何減稅措施,這對部分借款人來說是否足以減輕負擔?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, but I mean, obviously, if rates stay where they are, there will be some stress in the system. We still are concerned with office, but office is going to play out over a longer time period. We had a nice reduction in our office criticized this quarter, but that doesn't remove all the risk that you have out there.
是的,但我的意思是,如果利率保持在當前水平,系統顯然就會面臨一些壓力。我們仍然關注辦公室,但辦公室將在更長的時間內發揮作用。本季度,我們辦公室受到的批評有所減少,但這並不能消除所有風險。
But the fundamentals are still really getting better. Our construction book seems to be on track, doing really well. Our other parts of CRE if you look at it from a hotel, retail, multi-family basis, all seem to be performing well and as expected.
但基本面仍在不斷好轉。我們的施工進度似乎進展順利,進展非常順利。如果從旅館、零售、多戶型家庭的角度來看,我們商業不動產的其他部分似乎都表現良好,符合預期。
So I'm not going to say we aren't going to have any more increases to criticized or no more charge offs. But from what we see today and what we've basically were able to move off the balance sheet already, we think a much better criticized book that we have, and it will have less of an impact moving forward on our financials.
因此,我不會說我們不會對批評增加任何幅度,也不會再有沖銷。但從我們今天看到的情況以及我們基本上已經能夠從資產負債表中移除的內容來看,我們認為我們目前的帳簿受到了更好的批評,並且它對我們的財務狀況的影響較小。
Bill Carcache - Analyst
Bill Carcache - Analyst
And if I could squeeze in one last one, your comments on capital return are very clear, and the relationship between whether we get faster or slower loan growth being a driver of the level of a buyback. But if we did get any kind of acceleration in loan growth, how much of that would you expect to drop to the bottom line and ultimately drive greater positive operating leverage, versus the level that you'd look to reinvest in the business?
如果我可以再補充一點的話,你對資本回報的評論非常清楚,以及貸款成長更快或更慢與回購水準的關係。但是,如果我們的貸款成長確實有所加速,那麼您預計其中有多少會下降到利潤線,並最終帶來更大的正營運槓桿,而不是您希望在業務中再投資的水平?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
No, I'm basically just going to tell you. We're going to basically be at 11% CET1 ratio. It's going to be driven by our RWA growth. And depending on that, we'll determine how many share repurchases we do this year.
不,我基本上只是想告訴你。我們的 CET1 比率基本上將達到 11%。這將受到我們的 RWA 成長的推動。我們將根據這一情況來確定今年回購多少股票。
Bill Carcache - Analyst
Bill Carcache - Analyst
Very helpful. Thanks for taking my questions Daryl.
非常有幫助。感謝 Daryl 回答我的問題。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.
美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Hey, good morning.
嘿,早安。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Good morning.
早安.
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
I guess a couple of follow-up questions. I just -- when you think about the margin outlook and your margin guidance, if we don't see any move from the Fed, and if you can remove loan growth, like how do you think the trajectory of the NIM plays itself out from here?
我想還有幾個後續問題。我只是——當你考慮利潤前景和利潤指引時,如果我們沒有看到美聯儲採取任何行動,如果你可以消除貸款增長,那麼你認為淨利差的軌跡會如何發展?
Like should we think about it as the bankbook repricing should continue to be a tail end, and deposit costs are stable to lower, or is that not the right framework? And how to think about what NIM would do in a static balance sheet?
例如,我們是否應該認為銀行存摺重新定價應該繼續處於尾聲,存款成本保持穩定甚至降低,或者這不是正確的框架?那麼如何思考NIM在靜態資產負債表中會扮演什麼角色呢?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, so high level Ebrahim. We feel pretty good that our net interest margin should continue to increase throughout 2025. If you look at where we are and what makes us say that, when you look at our receive swap portfolio, we've already have locked in and it's going to increase.
是的,易卜拉欣的水平很高。我們非常有信心,我們的淨利差將在 2025 年繼續增加。如果你看看我們現在的情況以及是什麼讓我們這麼說,當你看看我們的接收掉期投資組合時,我們已經鎖定了,而且還會增加。
If you start with the fourth quarter of 2024 and look at the fourth quarter of 2025, we have over a 50 basis point increase in that book. And that's a given. If you look at our fixed rate repricing assets on the asset side of the balance sheet, the investment portfolio, consumer loans, and residential mortgage loans, it's going to be dependent on what the shape of the curve is there.
如果從 2024 年第四季開始,並展望 2025 年第四季度,我們會發現該帳面價值增加了 50 個基點以上。這是理所當然的。如果你看看資產負債表資產方的固定利率重新定價資產、投資組合、消費貸款和住宅抵押貸款,它將取決於曲線的形狀。
But I feel pretty good that the investment portfolio from point to point, from fourth quarter to fourth quarter should be up 20 to 25, 30 basis points, depending on the shape of the curve. Consumer loans and residential mortgage loans of maybe 10 to 20 basis points over that time period. So that's all really good.
但我覺得投資組合從一個點到另一個點,從第四季到第四季應該會上漲 20 到 25 到 30 個基點,這取決於曲線的形狀。在這段時間內,消費貸款和住宅抵押貸款可能會增加 10 到 20 個基點。這一切都非常好。
If you look at the other side of the balance sheet, we ran our models with two Fed cuts out there. So these are really driven by Fed actions. We still believe that we will have good repricing going down in our non-maturity deposits. Successfully, I think our deposit pages will reach 50% in 2025.
如果你看看資產負債表的另一邊,我們會發現我們的模型已經採用了聯準會兩次降息的政策。因此,這些實際上是由聯準會的行動所推動的。我們仍然相信,我們的非定期存款將實現良好的重新定價。成功的話,我認為我們的存款頁面到 2025 年將達到 50%。
Time deposits will have almost 100 basis point improvement point to point in that cost, which is really positive. And wholesale funds will also have a nice large improvement. So I feel pretty good with the trends that we see, and this trajectory of where our net interest margins going to go.
定期存款的成本將逐點提高近 100 個基點,這確實是正面的。批發基金也會有較大的改善。因此,我對我們所看到的趨勢以及我們的淨利差未來的走勢感到非常滿意。
But a lot depends on the shape of the curve. And you know, you saw yesterday, there's a big move back down on all that. So it's a volatile environment, but we're really neutral from a short end perspective, from a Fed move, and really just really looking at the longer end. But you know, truly trying to manage through and do things that make sense for our balance sheet and our customers.
但這很大程度上取決於曲線的形狀。你知道,你昨天看到了,所有這些都大幅回落。因此,這是一個動盪的環境,但從短期角度、從聯準會的舉措來看,我們確實持中立態度,而實際上只是著眼於長期。但你知道,我們確實在努力管理並做一些對我們的資產負債表和客戶有意義的事情。
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
That's helpful. And this is a separate question on the four priorities you lay out on slide 23. As we think about the expense outlook for this year, you have some larger tech projects going on. Does that set the stage for sort of lower expenses, more efficiencies over the next few years, or do you think the level of investment spend is likely to continue for the medium term as we think about where efficiency ratio of (inaudible) are headed?
這很有幫助。這是關於您在第 23 張幻燈片中列出的四個優先事項的單獨問題。當我們考慮今年的支出前景時,您會發現一些較大的技術項目正在進行中。這是否為未來幾年降低費用、提高效率奠定了基礎,或者您認為,當我們考慮(聽不清楚)的效率比率走向時,投資支出水準可能會在中期內持續下去?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, so when you look at our expenses -- first, I wanted to thank all my colleagues in the company, we had 2024 and you know, we spent a fair amount of money on some significant projects. We're doing the same thing again 2025.
是的,所以當你看看我們的開支時——首先,我想感謝公司裡的所有同事,我們有 2024 年,你知道,我們在一些重大項目上花了相當多的錢。2025年我們將再次做同樣的事情。
But we're very disciplined here, and doing what's best for the corporate of the company. So I really appreciate everybody taking that settlement and doing that. When I look at 2025 and beyond, right now, we have six, I would say major investments going on in the company.
但我們在這裡非常自律,並且盡最大努力為公司謀福利。因此我真的很感謝大家接受並這樣做。當我展望 2025 年及以後時,我認為目前我們公司正在進行六項重大投資。
Out of those six investments, I call three of them as really big investments that will happen once every several decades. So if you look at the cloud and data center would have been three new data centers. You don't do that very often, that probably every 10 to 20 years.
在這六項投資中,我認為其中三項是幾十年一遇的真正大投資。因此,如果你看一下雲端和資料中心,你會發現有三個新的資料中心。你不會常常這樣做,大概每10到20年才會發生一次。
We're putting in a new general ledger system, a financial system, that's also probably every 10 or 20 years. From a commercial perspective, we've really close to finishing up our corporate services and fulfillment of how we manage risk in that area, still working on a commercial services.
我們正在建立一個新的總帳系統、一個財務系統,這可能每10年或20年就會更新一次。從商業角度來看,我們已經接近完成我們的企業服務,並實現了我們如何管理該領域的風險,目前我們仍在致力於商業服務。
But once we get that done and completed, that won't get changed probably for another decade or so. So those are really big investments, but once we get them done, I think those will fall off. I think you have other investments that we're making as well.
但一旦我們完成這項工作,大概十年左右的時間都不會改變。所以這些都是非常大的投資,但是一旦我們完成它們,我認為這些投資就會減少。我認為我們也在進行其他投資。
At the same time as we invest in data and analytics, we're always going to be investing in data analytics. That's just core to the customers, how we serve our customers and all that, that is critical of what we do. Our digital is basically table stakes.
在我們投資數據和分析的同時,我們也將始終投資於數據分析。這對客戶來說是核心,我們如何為客戶服務等等,這對我們的工作至關重要。我們的數字基本上就是賭注。
We have to continue to improve and offer really good digital services and all that. So that's good. Treasury management and other things that support our clients are things we will continue to invest in over time. So when I look at it is we got a big hump we're going through right now with some major projects, and there's other projects we're also doing at the same time that will probably linger on into the expense run rate.
我們必須繼續改進並提供真正優質的數位服務等等。這很好。我們將繼續在財務管理和其他支援客戶的事情上進行投資。所以,我認為我們現在在一些主要項目上遇到了很大困難,而且我們同時在做的其他項目可能會影響費用運行率。
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Understood. Thanks for taking my questions.
明白了。感謝您回答我的問題。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Gerard Cassidy, RBC.
加拿大皇家銀行的傑拉德·卡西迪。
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Hey, Daryl.
嘿,達裡爾。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Hey Gerard, how you doing?
嘿,傑拉德,你好嗎?
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Good, thanks. I'd like you to see if you could frame out first the expansion, you talked about the focus on New England and Long Island. And through organic growth, how long do you think it will take you to get to the levels or the contribution to the consolidated numbers that these areas that you've targeted for these areas. And that -- in saying that, how big do you think they could get as a percentage of the total pie? What's the ideal kind of exposure?
很好,謝謝。我想請您先概述一下擴張計劃,您之前談到了對新英格蘭和長島的關注。透過有機成長,您認為需要多長時間才能達到您所設定的水平或對這些領域的綜合數字做出貢獻。而且——話雖如此,您認為他們能佔據總份額的多少百分比?理想的曝光方式是怎麼樣的?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah. Well, Gerard, what I would look at is what we had in Baltimore. We got into the Baltimore market with the all first transaction about 20 years ago. And if you look at that and where we are today 20 years later, we're a dominant player in the city of Baltimore.
是的。好吧,傑拉德,我想看看我們在巴爾的摩所擁有的東西。大約 20 年前,我們透過第一筆交易進入了巴爾的摩市場。如果你看看這一點,再看看 20 年後的今天,我們已經成為巴爾的摩市的主導者。
So our plans are to be very similar to that in the markets in New England. Whether it takes 20 years or whether it's something shorter, that really depends on if we have inorganic growth in those periods. But right now, we're increasing our business bankers, we're increasing commercial lenders, increasing wealth managers, and people are starting to notice us there.
所以我們的計劃與新英格蘭市場的計劃非常相似。無論需要 20 年還是更短的時間,這實際上取決於我們在此期間是否實現了無機成長。但現在,我們正在增加商業銀行家、商業貸款人和財富經理的數量,人們開始注意到我們。
We actually were one of the larger players in SPA in 2024, even with a really small branch distribution. So we're having an impact, but I think our impact will continue to increase and grow as we continue to put more investments there. And then if we have opportunities at some point to do inorganic, that would just speed up the process there as well.
儘管分支機構分佈非常小,但我們實際上已成為 2024 年 SPA 中較大的參與者之一。所以我們正在產生影響,但我認為,隨著我們繼續在那裡投入更多資金,我們的影響力將繼續增加和成長。如果我們在某個時候有機會進行無機合成,那麼這也會加快這一進程。
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Very good. And then obviously you've got some great years of experience, and you've seen how regulatory changes have taken place over the years. Any thoughts on what to expect as we all know, with the incoming administration, there will be a new controller of the currency, and new head of the FDIC, as well as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and then the big news in my view at least was the resignation and the Vice Chair of Safety and Soundness at the Fed. Any thoughts or comments on the way you guys are looking at all of this?
非常好。顯然,您已經累積了多年的豐富經驗,並見證了多年來監管的變化。大家知道,隨著新政府的上任,將會有新的貨幣主管、新的聯邦存款保險公司負責人以及消費者金融保護局負責人,然後在我看來,會出現重大新聞至少是聯準會安全與穩健副主席的辭職。你們對這一切的看法有什麼想法或評論嗎?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, Gerard, I think we're very optimistic. I think we're hopeful that new administration puts people in place that basically are more balanced, really focus on their true risk of the industry. You look at Governor Powell's speech that she gave last week in California, that she and her priorities that she believes right now is prioritizing safety and soundness risk, which is really critical, important, committing to tailoring, and still making sure that happens, and also making sure we have increased transparency throughout the industry, and how things are done specifically stress testing, but other things there.
是的,傑拉德,我認為我們非常樂觀。我認為我們希望新政府任命的人員能夠更加平衡,真正關注產業的真正風險。看看鮑威爾州長上週在加州發表的講話,她認為目前的首要任務是優先考慮安全性和穩健性風險,這是非常關鍵、重要的,致力於量身定制,並確保做到這一點,同時確保我們提高整個行業的透明度,以及如何進行壓力測試,還有其他事情。
So, I think if we at M&T, we have our fundamentals of how we run the company very, very much aligned with that type of thinking. And we think, you can run a really good, successful bank if you just focus on the fundamentals, and that's what we try to do each and every day, and we think that's really important.
因此,我認為,在 M&T,我們經營公司的基本原則與這種思維非常一致。我們認為,只要你專注於基本面,你就能經營一家真正優秀、成功的銀行,這也是我們每天都在努力做的事情,我們認為這非常重要。
So we're optimistic and feel really good about it. And we'll just see what happens when President gets in office Monday, and starts making some decisions on regulatory people in these spots.
因此我們對此感到樂觀並且非常高興。我們只需觀察總統週一上任後將會發生什麼,並開始對這些地方的監管人員做出一些決定。
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Great, appreciate the color. Thank you, Daryl.
太棒了,很欣賞這個顏色。謝謝你,達裡爾。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
John Pancari, Evercore.
約翰‧潘卡里 (John Pancari),Evercore。
John Pancari - Analyst
John Pancari - Analyst
Morning, Daryl.
早安,達裡爾。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Morning, John.
早安,約翰。
John Pancari - Analyst
John Pancari - Analyst
Just on the credit if I could just go back to that, I appreciate the color you gave on that front. The -- just based upon the your outlook, if credit trends play out as you had noted, we expect a bit more stress in office but some improvement elsewhere.
僅就信用而言,如果我可以回顧這一點,我很欣賞你在這方面給予的色彩。——僅基於您的展望,如果信貸趨勢如您所說,我們預計辦公室的壓力會更大一些,但其他方面會有所改善。
Do you expect that you could see continued reserve releases through 2025? I know you put the reserve declined about a bit this quarter, very modest. But could you expect continued release if credit plays out as you had described?
您預計到 2025 年還會繼續釋放儲備嗎?我知道您說本季的儲備量有所下降,但幅度非常小。但如果情況正如您所描述的那樣,您還能期待繼續發行嗎?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
We definitely believe from a commercial CRE perspective, as things continue to improve, and we have less criticized loans, less non-accrual loans out there that you're going to see improvement in the allowance. On the other hand though, we are changing the mix of our investment or loan portfolio.
我們確實相信,從商業 CRE 的角度來看,隨著情況的不斷改善,受批評的貸款減少,不計息貸款減少,您將看到準備金的改善。但另一方面,我們正在改變投資或貸款組合的結構。
And that mix of the loan of the loan portfolio has more consumer assets associated to it. But those consumer assets with that, has a little bit higher allowance numbers. And we're really basically building a very diversified balance sheet, diversified revenue stream, and from that perspective.
而貸款組合中的貸款包含更多的與之相關的消費者資產。但是那些消費者資產的配額數會稍微高一些。從這個角度來看,我們實際上正在建立一個非常多元化的資產負債表和多元化的收入來源。
So I'm not going to say we can definitely release a lot of allowance because of that mix change that's happening. But I think within that mix change, you're seeing the commercial side of it definitely improving it get better. But on the consumer side, we get paid for these higher yields and higher returns that we're going to receive on that. So it makes sense all in all in the long run.
因此,我不會說,由於正在發生的混合變化,我們一定能夠釋放大量的配額。但我認為,在這種混合變化中,你會看到它的商業方面肯定會得到改善,變得更好。但在消費者方面,我們將因更高的收益和更高的回報而獲得報酬。所以從長遠來看,這總的來說是有意義的。
John Pancari - Analyst
John Pancari - Analyst
Okay. Thank you. And then just separately, back to the capital and M&A topic, I know you did mention that when you're looking at your markets of interest and broader expansion, inorganic would be an opportunity to speed up the process.
好的。謝謝。然後單獨回到資本和併購主題,我知道您確實提到過,當您考慮感興趣的市場和更廣泛的擴張時,無機融資將是一個加快這一進程的機會。
As you look at your markets, could you maybe just give us a more broadly your view, your updated view on whole bank deals particularly given the evolving regulatory backdrop that you just mentioned in terms of the upcoming Trump administration. Thanks.
當您審視您的市場時,您能否從更廣泛的角度向我們介紹您對整個銀行交易的最新看法,特別是考慮到您剛才提到的即將上任的特朗普政府不斷變化的監管背景。謝謝。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, I think we're optimistic. We'll see what happens when people get into the seats. And I think for us, we are really focused on our four priorities. And I firmly believe as we execute on these priorities, and we get things accomplished, people will want us to actually be more important or grow into other markets.
是的,我認為我們很樂觀。我們將看看當人們坐到座位上時會發生什麼。我認為對我們來說,我們真正關注的是我們的四個優先事項。我堅信,當我們執行這些優先事項並完成任務時,人們會希望我們變得更重要或擴大到其他市場。
I think we'll have a basically people pushing us or pulling us into those markets, and there will be demand for an M&T bank. When you look at M&T, where I kind of think of us kind of more is in the sweet spot, you have smaller banks in many of the markets that are also community oriented, but they don't have the platform or the scale to really offer what we can offer over, that that time period and what we do, how we go to market.
我認為基本上會有人推動或拉動我們進入這些市場,對 M&T 銀行的需求也會存在。當你看看 M&T 時,我認為我們處於最佳狀態,許多市場中都有規模較小的銀行,它們也是面向社區的,但它們沒有平台或規模來真正提供我們在那個時間段內可以提供的產品、我們所做的事情以及我們如何進入市場。
And then you have the bigger banks, bigger banks while they have the scale and the products and services, they tend to be more line of business oriented. And we feel M&T being community bank oriented is really a great fit for the New England markets.
然後你有更大的銀行,更大的銀行雖然擁有規模,產品和服務,但它們往往更注重業務線。我們認為,M&T 以社區銀行為導向,非常適合新英格蘭市場。
We think that's a great bank there, and we'll have a lot of success and how that actually plays out. So we're excited to continue to grow, and we actually believe the markets will basically push us into those other markets to make us be successful.
我們認為那是一家很棒的銀行,我們將會取得巨大的成功,並且看看它的實際表現。因此,我們很高興能夠繼續發展,我們確實相信市場將推動我們進入其他市場,從而讓我們取得成功。
John Pancari - Analyst
John Pancari - Analyst
Got it. Alright, thanks, Darryl.
知道了。好的,謝謝,達裡爾。
Operator
Operator
Peter Winter, D A Davidson.
彼得溫特、D·A·戴維森。
Peter Winter - Analyst
Peter Winter - Analyst
Good morning. Daryl, can you talk about borrower sentiment today in terms of loan demand? And what you think it'll take to get them to be more aggressive in terms of demand?
早安.達裡爾,您能從貸款需求的角度談談今天的借款人情緒嗎?您認為怎樣才能讓他們更積極地滿足需求?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, so if you look from a borrower perspective, what we're seeing right now in the marketplace is kind of a mixed bag, to be honest with you. If you look at our specialty businesses that we have, and look specifically like in corporate institutional fund banking, dealer financial services, all those seem to be pretty robust and going very strong.
是的,如果從借款人的角度來看,老實說,我們現在在市場上看到的情況是好壞參半。如果你看看我們的專業業務,特別是企業機構基金銀行、經銷商金融服務,你會發現這些業務似乎都相當強勁,發展勢頭強勁。
If you look at our middle market businesses that we have throughout our footprint, not as much so there. It tends to be a little bit more soft, I think waiting for more certainty to come out from the administration and how things play out.
如果你看看我們遍布全球的中階市場業務,你會發現情況並非如此。它傾向於更加溫和一些,我認為等待政府給予更多確定性的信息以及事態如何發展。
When you look from our perspective, we actually think 2025 and 2026 is going to be really good years. The administration seems to be very much pro-business, growing the economy. And we think as the economy and they're successful doing that, loan demand will follow at some point down the road. So we're optimistic, but right now, I would say it's probably a mixed bag.
從我們的角度來看,我們確實認為 2025 年和 2026 年將會是非常好年份。該政府似乎非常支持商業,促進經濟發展。我們認為,隨著經濟和他們的成功,貸款需求也將在未來某個時候隨之成長。所以我們很樂觀,但目前,我想說情況可能是好壞參半。
Peter Winter - Analyst
Peter Winter - Analyst
Got it, and then just as a follow-up. Can you talk about deposit competition, and would you say DDA migration has stabilized, and actually could start growing in '25?
明白了,然後就作為後續行動。您能談談存款競爭嗎?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, so we definitely saw all of our business lines, with the exception of ICS, we're pretty flat. So the disintermediate mediation seem to have basically gone away, and I think that's run its course. ICS had a really great quarter, and should have a great 2025, and actually contributed and we had positive growth in our non-interest bearing deposits. So we feel very positive from that perspective.
是的,我們確實看到我們所有的業務線,除了 ICS 之外,都相當平穩。因此,非中介調解似乎已基本消失,我認為這一現像已經走到了盡頭。ICS 本季的業績表現非常出色,預計 2025 年也將表現優異,並且確實做出了貢獻,我們的無息存款也實現了正增長。因此從這個角度來看我們感到非常正面。
When you look at the growth that we had in deposits for the quarter, I think quarter we were up over $3 billion in deposits. That is really good. It was all customer oriented growth. It is very competitive in the marketplace.
當您查看本季我們的存款成長情況時,我認為本季我們的存款增加了 30 億美元以上。那真是太好了。這都是以客戶為中心的成長。市場競爭非常激烈。
But I think it comes back to, when I got the question earlier, I just M&T's model and how we go to market and how we serve our clients, people want to have the relationships all with one place that can basically fully serve their needs.
但我認為這又回到了之前我提出的問題,我只是談論 M&T 的模式以及我們如何進入市場以及如何服務我們的客戶,人們希望與一個能夠完全滿足他們需求的地方建立關係。
And I think we're basically being very successful at accomplishing that, and we're seeing really good traction there. You know, we expect our core deposit growth to be up a couple percent, 2% or 3% this next year. And I'm not saying it's not competitive, but we think that we can win with our services and competitive rates that we will pay out in the market price.
我認為我們基本上非常成功地實現了這一目標,並且我們看到了非常好的進展。你知道,我們預計明年我們的核心存款成長率將達到幾個百分點,2% 或 3%。我並不是說沒有競爭力,但我們認為我們可以憑藉我們的服務和有競爭力的價格以市場價格支付來贏得勝利。
Peter Winter - Analyst
Peter Winter - Analyst
Got it. Thanks Daryl.
知道了。謝謝 Daryl。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah.
是的。
Operator
Operator
Frank Schiraldi, Piper Sandler.
法蘭克希拉爾迪、派柏桑德勒。
Frank Schiraldi - Analyst
Frank Schiraldi - Analyst
Hey, good morning Daryl.
嘿,早上好,達裡爾。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Good morning Frank.
早安,弗蘭克。
Frank Schiraldi - Analyst
Frank Schiraldi - Analyst
Just trying to work through, some of the numbers you talked about just on the call here in terms of margins such as the pick-up and swaps and repricing securities and loan book and the deposit betas. And just wondering if we think about exit rate for 2025, just curious you'd be willing to talk about any guardrails there, seems like you could perhaps get to the sort of a [380] number. And, so just curious there or maybe just updated thoughts on more normalizing them as we move through the year.
只是想弄清楚您在電話會議上談到的一些關於利潤率的數字,例如接單和掉期以及重新定價證券和貸款帳簿和存款貝塔係數。我只是想知道,如果我們考慮 2025 年的退出率,只是好奇您是否願意談論那裡的任何護欄,似乎您可以得到 [380] 這樣的數字。因此,我只是感到好奇,或者可能只是更新了想法,以便在我們度過這一年時使它們更加正常化。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, I would love to tell you that, Frank, but it really depends on really the shape of the curve and what's going on in the marketplace. Like I said earlier, we're pretty neutral on the short end of the curve. We have an upward sloping yield curve. I think we'll have a much higher net interest margin. That's a good environment for margins.
是的,我很想告訴你這個,弗蘭克,但這實際上取決於曲線的形狀和市場的情況。正如我之前所說,我們對曲線的短端持中立態度。我們的殖利率曲線呈向上傾斜。我認為我們的淨利差將會更高。對於利潤來說這是一個良好的環境。
If it stays more flattish, it'll be less so from that perspective. So it's really hard to tell from that. But I'm optimistic. As we start 2025, I feel that we have a lot of good things in place, and have a lot of confidence in my teammates out there that are going to make things happen and really make us be successful.
如果它保持較為平坦的狀態,從這個角度來看,這種情況就不會那麼嚴重了。因此,這確實很難判斷。但我很樂觀。當我們進入 2025 年時,我覺得我們已經做好了很多準備,並且對我的隊友充滿信心,他們會讓事情發生並真正讓我們取得成功。
So I'm optimistic all that's going to play out, and whether it's going to be [380] or some other number, I can't really tell you today, but I feel really good about how it's going.
因此,我對一切進展都很樂觀,至於最終結果是 [380] 還是其他數字,我今天無法告訴你,但我對事情的進展感到非常滿意。
Frank Schiraldi - Analyst
Frank Schiraldi - Analyst
Okay. And then just follow-up on stock buybacks, presumably still going through (inaudible) again, you seem pretty comfortable with that 11% CET1 sort of regardless. But I'm just wondering aside from whether loan growth throughout the year turns out stronger or weaker than anticipated, is there otherwise back loading, anticipated repurchase activity, holding some back for later in the year, or do you think it should we expect a pretty consistent throughout 2025?
好的。然後只是跟進股票回購,大概仍在經歷(聽不清楚),無論如何,您似乎對 11% 的 CET1 相當滿意。但我只是想知道,除了全年貸款成長是否強於或弱於預期之外,是否還有其他回購活動,預期的回購活動,將一些資金留到今年晚些時候,或者你認為我們應該預期 2025 年是否仍保持相當一致?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
So what I would tell you is, we feel comfortable operating the company 11% of where we are today. That's kind of a short term capital target. What I believe is our long term capital target is probably going to be around 10%. And I think that's probably going to play out over the next year or two from that.
因此我想告訴你們的是,我們對公司目前 11% 的營運水準感到滿意。這是一種短期資本目標。我相信我們的長期資本目標大概會在 10% 左右。我認為這種情況可能會在未來一兩年內顯現出來。
As far as when we repurchase shares and all that is really going to be dependent on what we think the timing is, and whether we're opportunistic or not and whatever. So we aren't going to basically tell you guys. You guys can calculate what we're going to, how much we're going to buy back.
至於我們何時回購股票,這實際上取決於我們認為的時機,以及我們是否抓住機會等等。所以我們基本上不會告訴你們。你們可以算一下我們要買什麼,要回購多少。
I don't really know when we're going to buy back. We're going to be opportunistic and to see how it plays out from that. But I don't think 11% is done in '26 and '27, things continue to improve and all that. We can continue to push our capital ratios down closer to 10%.
我真的不知道我們什麼時候會回購。我們將抓住機會,看看結果會如何。但我不認為 11% 是在 26 年和 27 年實現的,情況還在持續改善。我們可以繼續將資本比率降低至接近 10%。
Frank Schiraldi - Analyst
Frank Schiraldi - Analyst
Okay, great. I appreciate it. Thanks.
好的,太好了。我很感激。謝謝。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah.
是的。
Operator
Operator
Erika Najarian, UBS.
瑞銀的埃里卡·納賈里安(Erika Najarian)。
Erika Najarian - Analyst
Erika Najarian - Analyst
Hi, good morning, and just to follow-up on that line of questioning, Daryl. I think it's an off cycle year this year for DFAST for Category IV banks. Are you planning to maybe address that stress capital buffer this year by opting to participate?
大家早安,我只是想跟進這個問題,達裡爾。我認為今年對 IV 類銀行的 DFAST 來說是非週期年。您是否計劃透過選擇參與來解決今年的壓力資本緩衝問題?
And also maybe I'll ask the second question here, like how should we read into the Federal Reserve press release that was issued in December 23, essentially saying that they were going to look to improve the transparency of the stress test, and also sort of the bank lawsuit and how that could sort of impact your path from you mentioned like 11% this year to over the long term 10%?
也許我會在這裡問第二個問題,例如我們應該如何解讀美聯儲 12 月 23 日發布的新聞稿,它基本上說他們將尋求提高壓力測試的透明度,並且銀行訴訟案以及這會如何影響您提到的今年的11% 到長期10% 的利率目標?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, so we actually did already opt in to the stress test. We notified the Fed and it was approved. So we are doing the stress test again. We firmly believe that with the reduction that we've had in CRE, and with reduction that we've had in our criticized and non-accrual balances, and the performance we've had in PP&R that we should stress test better than what we had did in '24.
是的,我們實際上已經選擇參加壓力測試。我們通知了美聯儲並且獲得了批准。因此我們正在再次進行壓力測試。我們堅信,隨著 CRE 的減少,隨著我們受到批評和非應計餘額的減少,以及我們在 PP&R 方面的表現,我們應該比我們在’24年就這麼做了。
Remember in '24 though, we were only one of three banks that dropped out of 30 banks, that we look at from that perspective. But we're hopeful that we can continue to drive it down. Our stress capital buffer is still too high from how we look at it, and we need to bring it down some more. So hopefully we'll make progress on that this year.
不過請記住,在 1924 年,我們是僅有的 3 家從這個角度退出的銀行之一。但我們希望能繼續降低這個數字。從我們的角度來看,我們的壓力資本緩衝仍然太高,我們需要進一步降低它。所以希望我們今年能夠取得進展。
As far as what the Fed came out, I think we applaud Governor or Chairman Powell on for being transparent and things to work on. We all work on things to get better, and I think all that is, is really important. So I think that is definitely in the right direction and look forward to having them do and move forward and making it a better process from that perspective.
就聯準會發布的消息而言,我認為我們讚揚鮑威爾主席的透明度和所做的努力。我們都在努力讓事情變得更好,我認為這一切都非常重要。因此我認為這絕對是正確的方向,並期待他們能夠採取行動、繼續前進,從這個角度使其成為一個更好的過程。
Erika Najarian - Analyst
Erika Najarian - Analyst
Great. That's helpful. Thanks Daryl.
偉大的。這很有幫助。謝謝 Daryl。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Thanks, Erika.
謝謝,Erika。
Operator
Operator
Christopher Spahr, Wells Fargo.
富國銀行的克里斯多福‧斯帕爾 (Christopher Spahr)。
Christopher Spahr - Analyst
Christopher Spahr - Analyst
Hi, good morning. So Daryl, you have a lot of comments about the investments you're putting into the company, and yet when I kind of look at the expense guide, it seems to be relatively measured. So I'm just wondering what are the sources of the cost savings or the offsets that you're getting within the franchise, and how repeatable those may be? Thanks.
嗨,早安。所以 Daryl,你對向公司投入的投資有很多評論,但當我查看費用指南時,它似乎是相對有節制的。所以我只是想知道您在特許經營中獲得的成本節約或補償的來源是什麼,以及這些來源的可重複性如何?謝謝。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, Chris, what I would tell you is, one of the things when I joined M&T and I knew the company pretty well from outside looking in. But one of the gems that you have here that I think is really, really important is our business leaders that we have and throughout the company that run their groups, they're all really entrepreneurial.
是的,克里斯,我想告訴你的是,當我加入 M&T 時,我從外部非常了解這家公司。但我認為,這裡真正重要的是,我們的商業領袖以及整個公司管理團隊的商業領袖都具有創業精神。
And they don't like to be told what to do, but they are really good at executing what and how they do it. So I give all the credit to my peers, and how they look and restructure their, their groups and how they make them more efficient, more automated, and how that all works. So I think that's really important, and we don't want to lose that.
他們不喜歡別人指揮他們做什麼,但是他們非常擅長執行他們所做的事情以及如何做。所以我把所有的功勞都歸功於我的同事,他們如何審視和重組他們的團隊,如何使他們更有效率,更自動化,以及這一切是如何運作的。所以我認為這非常重要,我們不想失去它。
I think that what makes us really unique in how successful when we go to market. Because if you look at our performance in 2024, I mean, what we were able to accomplish was pretty amazing, and I think '25 will be better than '24 as I look out.
我認為,我們的獨特之處在於我們進入市場時的成功。因為如果你看看我們在 2024 年的表現,我的意思是,我們所取得的成就相當驚人,而且我認為 2025 年會比 2024 年更好。
So I feel really good and definitely -- we definitely have more opportunities to optimize throughout the company and we will continue to execute and do that. And I know my peers around the company will help make that happen.
所以我感覺真的很好,而且我們肯定有更多的機會在整個公司進行優化,我們將繼續執行並做到這一點。我知道公司的同事們會幫助我們實現這個目標。
Christopher Spahr - Analyst
Christopher Spahr - Analyst
(technical difficulty) less head count over time, less manual operations? Just -- again, what are the underlying drivers for the savings?
(技術難度)隨著時間的推移,員工數量會減少,手動操作會減少?只是——再說一遍,節省的根本驅動力是什麼?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
I mean, with my head count obviously being the highest cost on our expense base that, that would definitely have to have some type of impact, but automation, new ways of doing things. On what we've done in the company, and it's, I don't know how many other entities have done this, but we have trained now people throughout our whole company to work in an agile form.
我的意思是,顯然員工人數是我們開支基礎中最高的成本,這肯定會產生某種影響,但自動化、新的工作方式卻可以實現。關於我們在公司所做的事情,我不知道有多少其他實體已經這樣做了,但我們現在已培訓全公司的人員以敏捷的方式工作。
You know, when I was in other places where I worked agile was more of a technology thing. And as technology people go off and do this stuff. We've trained all of our business leaders throughout the whole company, we call it the way we work, and how they basically work with technology and with other drivers of how the company works, and really works together as teams to make us better each and every day.
你知道,當我在其他地方工作時,敏捷更多的是一種技術。隨著科技的發展,人們開始做這些事。我們對整個公司的所有業務領導進行了培訓,我們稱之為我們的工作方式,以及他們如何與技術以及公司運作的其他驅動因素一起工作,並真正以團隊的形式一起工作,使我們每個人都變得更好並且每天。
And everybody is empowered to improve how they operate. It could be as simple as moving things from an Excel worksheet onto (inaudible) and all that. We've had dozens of those things in our finance area where we save you know, hundreds of hours doing that, or it could be more complex where we're offshoring some people out into other jobs and from lower skilled or whatever.
每個人都有權力來改善他們的運作方式。它可以像將內容從 Excel 工作表移動到 (聽不清楚) 等等一樣簡單。在我們的財務領域,我們已經有數十種這樣的做法,這樣做可以節省數百個小時,或者情況可能會更複雜,我們將一些人外包到其他工作崗位,或者從事技能較低的工作等等。
So we do a whole mixture of things, Chris, I'm not going to be too specific about that. I'm just going to hope that we continue to deliver really good numbers for you, and you're satisfied with that.
所以我們做了各種各樣的事情,克里斯,我不會太具體地談論這一點。我只是希望我們能繼續為您提供真正好的數據,並且您對此感到滿意。
Christopher Spahr - Analyst
Christopher Spahr - Analyst
Okay, thanks. And then one last follow-up, your office count shrunk a little bit over the last year. Do you expect that to expand going forward?
好的,謝謝。最後一個問題,去年你們的辦公室數量略有減少。您預計未來這趨勢會進一步擴大嗎?
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
From an office count perspective, I think we're kind of real close. It's -- I mean, it was within 100 FTE I think if I remember, look at the numbers year over year or something like that. So I think when you look at just how much our vacancy rate is, our vacancy rate is much larger than that.
從辦公室數量的角度來看,我認為我們已經非常接近了。這是 — — 我的意思是,如果我沒記錯的話,它是在 100 FTE 之內,看看逐年的數字或類似的東西。所以我認為,當你看到我們的空置率時,你會發現我們的空置率遠高於這個數字。
So we could have some volatility in those numbers. And I really look at what expenses that they're going to hit for the year and not so much the FTE.
因此這些數字可能會出現一些波動。我真正關注的是他們今年的開支,而不是全職當量 (FTE)。
Christopher Spahr - Analyst
Christopher Spahr - Analyst
All right. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。
Matt O'Connor - Analyst
Matt O'Connor - Analyst
Well, thanks for squeezing me in. Just a question on fees. I mean, the trends have been good. The outlook is solid, but do you feel like you need maybe a broader product set, both to boost kind of the contribution of fees to overall revenue.
好吧,謝謝你擠進來。我只想問一下費用。我的意思是,趨勢一直都很好。前景是穩固的,但您是否覺得可能需要更廣泛的產品組合,以提高費用對總收入的貢獻。
And then I guess I'm thinking specifically like in capital markets where more of your peers have kind of veered into that over the last several years, and you're still relatively small and some of the hedging services you provide and things like that.
然後我想我特別想到的是資本市場,過去幾年更多的同業已經轉向資本市場,而你們的規模仍然相對較小,而且你們還提供一些對沖服務之類的服務。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah. So we actually are growing out in that area. Peter D'Arcy and his team have put some investments in talent over the last couple of years, and we'll probably continue to do that in the next couple of years. But we are really focused on growing out the capital markets, investment banking pieces that make sense to serve our customers in the communities that we serve, from that perspective.
是的。所以我們實際上正在該領域不斷發展。過去幾年,Peter D'Arcy 和他的團隊在人才方面進行了一些投資,未來幾年我們可能會繼續這樣做。但從這個角度來看,我們真正關注的是發展資本市場和投資銀行業務,以便為我們服務的社區的客戶提供有意義的服務。
We also see some nice growth within our CRE platform. One of our people that works for Peter has really done amazing things, given us relationships with other non-bank entities out there. We have a relationship now with Blackstone, and it's connected to our RCC business, so that Blackstone can originate and actually do placements through the agencies now.
我們也看到我們的 CRE 平台實現了良好的成長。我們為彼得工作的一名員工確實做出了了不起的事情,使我們與其他非銀行實體建立了關係。我們現在與黑石集團建立了合作關係,而且它與我們的 RCC 業務相關,因此黑石集團現在可以透過代理商發起並實際進行融資。
And we're going to continue to do more of those things throughout that, we'll generate more fee income. You know, we will plan to continue to serve our CRE customers. But we think that our choices and options that we have now won't be just on balance sheet.
我們將繼續做更多這樣的事情,以獲得更多的費用收入。你知道,我們計劃繼續為我們的 CRE 客戶提供服務。但我們認為,我們現在的選擇和選項不僅體現在資產負債表上。
We have a lot of off balance sheet and growing off balance sheet alternatives that can really help drive and serve them as well as to serve our fee income. So I think we're headed in a really good direction. As far as mortgage goes, Matt, we've continued to hire producers both in commercial and residential.
我們擁有大量表外業務以及不斷成長的表外業務替代品,這些替代品能夠真正幫助推動和服務他們,同時也能為我們的費用收入提供服務。所以我認為我們正朝著一個非常好的方向前進。就抵押貸款而言,馬特,我們一直在繼續僱用商業和住宅領域的生產商。
And one of the things you may not know about us, but we have a really strong subservicing sector. We do subservicing for some of the largest mortgage originators in the industry and we're really good at it. We actually love the more challenging stuff from a servicing perspective because of our expertise there.
您可能不知道,我們的次級服務部門實力非常強大。我們為行業內一些最大的抵押貸款發起人提供次級服務,並且我們在這方面做得非常出色。從服務角度來看,我們實際上喜歡更具挑戰性的東西,因為我們在這方面擁有專業知識。
And then if you look at our ICS business, you know, they've had tremendous growth the last couple of years, I expect to have really good growth. She's -- we're expanding in Europe now. So that's something we're following our customers.
如果你看看我們的 ICS 業務,你會發現,過去幾年他們取得了巨大的成長,我預計也會有非常好的成長。她——我們現在正在歐洲擴張。這是我們關注客戶的事情。
Our customers have asked us to follow them to Europe, and we're following them and serving their needs there. So I think our fee income area is actually very positive, has a lot of good momentum, and will continue to grow and be a good positive revenue source.
我們的客戶要求我們跟隨他們進入歐洲,我們也正在跟隨他們並在那裡滿足他們的需求。因此,我認為我們的費用收入領域實際上非常積極,具有許多良好的發展勢頭,並且將繼續成長並成為良好的積極收入來源。
That said, I think net interest margins are also going to go up. So maybe from a mixed perspective, you may not see the benefit, but I think we got a lot of good revenue momentum going on in at M&T right now.
儘管如此,我認為淨利差也將上升。因此,也許從混合角度來看,您可能看不到好處,但我認為目前 M&T 的收入勢頭良好。
Matt O'Connor - Analyst
Matt O'Connor - Analyst
That's helpful. Thanks for the detail.
這很有幫助。謝謝你的詳細說明。
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah.
是的。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. At this time, we have no further questions in queue, I would like to turn the call back to Brian Klock for any additional or closing remarks.
謝謝。目前,我們沒有其他問題需要回答,我想將電話轉回給 Brian Klock,讓他做任何補充或結束語。
Brian Klock - Executive Vice President, Head of Market and Investor Relations
Brian Klock - Executive Vice President, Head of Market and Investor Relations
Again, thank you all for participating today. And as always, if clarification of any of the items in the call or news release is necessary, please contact our investor relations department at area code 7168425138 and have a great day.
再次感謝大家今天的參與。像往常一樣,如果需要澄清電話會議或新聞稿中的任何內容,請聯絡我們的投資者關係部(區號 7168425138),祝您有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
This does conclude the M&T Bank fourth-quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.
這確實結束了 M&T 銀行第四季和 2024 年全年財報電話會議。請立即斷開您的線路,祝您有美好的一天。