M&T Bank Corp (MTB) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the M&T Bank third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    歡迎參加M&T銀行2025年第三季財報電話會議。(操作人員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Wendelboe, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    現在我將把會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁史蒂夫溫德爾博。請繼續,先生。

  • Steven Wendelboe - Senior Vice President, Market & Investor Relations

    Steven Wendelboe - Senior Vice President, Market & Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Katie, and good morning. I'd like to thank everyone for participating in M&T Bank's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. If you have not read the earnings release we issued this morning, you may access it along with the financial tables and schedules by going to our Investor Relations website at ir.mtb.com.

    謝謝你,凱蒂,早安。感謝各位參加 M&T 銀行 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。如果您還沒有閱讀我們今天早上發布的收益報告,您可以訪問我們的投資者關係網站 ir.mtb.com 查看該報告以及財務表格和附表。

  • Also, before we start, I'd like to mention that today's presentation may contain forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information are included in today's earnings release materials and in the investor presentation, as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials. Presentation also includes non-GAAP financial measures as identified in the earnings release and investor presentation. The appropriate reconciliations to GAAP are included in the appendix.

    另外,在開始之前,我想提一下,今天的演講可能包含前瞻性資訊。有關此資訊的警示性聲明已包含在今天的收益發布資料和投資者簡報中,以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和其他投資者資料中。簡報還包括獲利報告和投資者簡報中確定的非GAAP財務指標。附錄中包含了與公認會計原則 (GAAP) 的相應調節表。

  • Joining me on the call this morning is M&T's Senior Executive Vice President and CFO, Daryl Bible. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Daryl.

    今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的是 M&T 銀行高級執行副總裁兼財務長 Daryl Bible。現在我想把電話交給達裡爾。

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. M&T continues to serve as a trusted partner for our customers and communities, bringing together people, capital, and ideas to make a difference. Earlier this quarter, we released our 2024 sustainability report, which highlights our community impact and the progress we've made towards meeting our sustainability goals.

    謝謝你,史蒂夫,大家早安。M&T 將繼續作為客戶和社區值得信賴的合作夥伴,匯聚人才、資本和創意,創造改變。本季度早些時候,我們發布了 2024 年永續發展報告,重點介紹了我們對社區的影響以及我們在實現永續發展目標方面取得的進展。

  • Highlights include $5 billion in sustainable lending and investments, and over $58 million contributed to nonprofits through corporate giving and the M&T Charitable Foundation. We are also proud to share that M&T is now the top SBA lender across our footprint by total volume, as of the end of the SBA fiscal year September 30. Our small business enterprise continues to be an important component of our support for entrepreneurs and local economy.

    亮點包括 50 億美元的可持續貸款和投資,以及透過企業捐贈和 M&T 慈善基金會向非營利組織捐贈的超過 5,800 萬美元。我們也很自豪地宣布,截至 9 月 30 日 SBA 財政年度結束,M&T 銀行已成為我們業務覆蓋範圍內 SBA 貸款總額最高的貸款機構。我們的小型企業一直是支持創業家和當地經濟的重要組成部分。

  • Turning to slide 4. Our businesses and leaders, notably our women in leadership, continue to receive accolades from the industry, including recognition of our Wilmington Trust team and individual recognition for leaders across the bank. Turning to slide 6, which shows the results for the third quarter. Our third-quarter results reflect M&T's continued momentum with several successes to highlight.

    翻到第4張投影片。我們的業務和領導者,特別是我們的女性領導者,不斷獲得業界的讚譽,包括對威爾明頓信託團隊的認可和對全行領導者的個人認可。請看第 6 張投影片,其中顯示了第三季的結果。我們第三季的業績反映了M&T持續的發展勢頭,其中有幾項成功值得一提。

  • We produced strong returns with operating ROTA and ROTCE of 1.56% and 17.13%. Our net interest margin expanded to 3.68%, demonstrating our relatively neutral asset sensitivity, well-controlled deposit and funding costs, and the continued benefit of fixed rate asset repricing. Strong fee income performance we have seen throughout the year continued with fee income, excluding notable items, reaching a record level.

    我們取得了強勁的回報,營運 ROTA 和 ROTCE 分別為 1.56% 和 17.13%。我們的淨利差擴大至 3.68%,這表明我們資產敏感性相對中性,存款和融資成本控制良好,以及固定利率資產重新定價的持續益處。今年以來,我們一直看到強勁的手續費收入表現,扣除重大項目後,手續費收入達到了創紀錄的水平。

  • Revenues grew more than expenses, resulting in our third-quarter efficiency ratio of 53.6%. Asset quality continues to improve with a $584 million, or 7%, reduction in commercialized criticized balances, and $61 million or 4% reduction in nonaccrual loans. We increased our quarterly dividend per share by 11% to $1.50 and executed a $409 million in share repurchases are also growing tangible book value per share by 3%.

    營收成長超過支出成長,使得我們第三季的效率比率達到 53.6%。資產品質持續改善,商業化不良貸款餘額減少了 5.84 億美元,降幅達 7%;非應計貸款減少了 6,100 萬美元,降幅達 4%。我們將季度每股股息提高了 11%,達到 1.50 美元,並執行了 4.09 億美元的股票回購,這也使每股有形帳面價值增加了 3%。

  • Now let's look at the specifics for the third quarter. Diluted GAAP earnings per share were $4.82, up from $4.24 in the prior quarter. Net income was $792 million compared to $716 million in the linked quarter. M&T's third-quarter results produced an ROA and ROCE of 1.49% and 11.45%, respectively.

    現在讓我們來看看第三季的具體情況。稀釋後每股收益為 4.82 美元,高於上一季的 4.24 美元。淨利為7.92億美元,而上一季為7.16億美元。M&T 第三季的業績顯示,其資產回報率 (ROA) 和資本回報率 (ROCE) 分別為 1.49% 和 11.45%。

  • The third quarter included a notable fee item of $28 million related to the distribution of an earn-out payment to M&T associated with the 2023 sale of our CIT business, adding $0.14 to EPS. Slide 7 includes supplemental reporting of M&T's results on a net operating or tangible basis. M&T's net operating income was $798 million, compared to $724 million in the linked quarter. Diluted net operating earnings per share were $4.87, up from $4.28 in the prior quarter.

    第三季包括一筆與 2023 年出售 CIT 業務相關的、向 M&T 支付的 2,800 萬美元的顯著費用項目,使每股收益增加了 0.14 美元。第 7 頁補充報告了 M&T 公司按淨營業或有形基礎計算的表現。M&T銀行的淨營業收入為7.98億美元,上一季為7.24億美元。稀釋後每股淨營業收益為 4.87 美元,高於上一季的 4.28 美元。

  • Next, we look a little deeper into the underlying trends that generated our third-quarter results. Please turn to slide 8. Taxable equivalent net interest income was $1.77 billion, an increase of $51 million, or 3%, from the linked quarter. The net interest margin was 3.68%, an increase of 6 basis points from the prior quarter. This improvement was driven by a positive 4 basis points related to the prior quarter catch-up premium amortization on certain securities, positive 3 basis points from higher asset liability spread mostly from continued fixed asset repricing, partially offset by lower contribution of net free funds.

    接下來,我們將更深入地了解促成我們第三季業績的潛在趨勢。請翻到第8張幻燈片。應稅等值淨利息收入為 17.7 億美元,較上一季增加 5,100 萬美元,增幅為 3%。淨利差為3.68%,較上一季成長6個基點。這項改善主要得益於上一季某些證券的追趕溢價攤銷帶來的 4 個基點的正增長,以及主要來自持續固定資產重新定價的資產負債利差擴大帶來的 3 個基點的正增長,但部分被淨自由資金貢獻的減少所抵消。

  • Turning to slide 10 to talk about average loans. Average loans and leases increased $1.1 billion to $136.5 billion. Higher commercial, residential mortgage, and consumer loans were partially offset by a decline in CRE balances. Commercial loans increased $0.7 billion to $61.7 billion, aided by growth in our corporate and institutional fund banking and loans to REITs.

    接下來請看第 10 張投影片,談談平均貸款額。平均貸款和租賃額增加 11 億美元,達到 1,365 億美元。商業貸款、住宅抵押貸款和消費貸款的增加被商業房地產貸款餘額的下降部分抵消。由於公司和機構基金銀行業務以及對 REIT 的貸款成長,商業貸款增加了 0.7 億美元,達到 617 億美元。

  • CRE loans declined 4% to $24.3 billion, reflecting the full quarter impact of last quarter's loan sale and continued payoffs and pay downs. Residential mortgage loans increased 3% to $24.4 billion. Consumer loans grew 3% to $26.1 billion, reflecting increases in recreational finance and HELOC, where our auto loans were largely stable from the second quarter. Loan yields increased 3 basis points to 6.14%, aided by continued fixed rate loan repricing, including a reduction in the negative carry on our interest rate swaps at sequentially higher nonaccrual interest.

    商業房地產貸款下降 4% 至 243 億美元,反映了上一季貸款出售的整個季度影響以及持續的償還和減額。住宅抵押貸款成長3%,達到244億美元。消費貸款成長 3% 至 261 億美元,反映出休閒金融和房屋淨值信用額度貸款的成長,而汽車貸款與第二季相比基本保持穩定。貸款收益率上升 3 個基點至 6.14%,這得益於持續的固定利率貸款重新定價,包括降低我們利率互換的負收益,而非應計利息則逐週上升。

  • Turning to slide 11. Our liquidity remains strong. At the end of the third quarter, investment securities and cash held at the Fed totaled $53.6 billion, representing 25% in total assets. Average investment securities increased $1.3 billion to $36.6 billion. In the third quarter, we purchased a total of $3.1 billion in securities with an average yield of 5.2%. The yield on the investment securities increased to 4.13%, reflecting the prior quarter catch-up premium amortization on certain securities and continued fixed rate securities repricing benefit.

    翻到第11張幻燈片。我們的流動性依然強勁。第三季末,聯準會持有的投資證券和現金總額為 536 億美元,佔總資產的 25%。平均投資證券規模增加13億美元,達366億美元。第三季度,我們共購買了價值 31 億美元的證券,平均殖利率為 5.2%。投資證券收益率上升至 4.13%,反映了上一季某些證券的追趕溢價攤銷以及固定利率證券持續的重新定價收益。

  • The duration of the investment portfolio at the end of the quarter was 3.5 years, and the unrealized pretax gain on available-for-sale portfolio was $163 million, or 8 basis points CET1 benefit, if included in regulatory capital. While not subject to the LCR requirements, M&T estimates that its LCR on September 30 was 108%, exceeding the regulatory minimum standards that would be applicable if we were a Category III institution.

    截至季末,投資組合的久期為 3.5 年,可供出售投資組合的未實現稅前收益為 1.63 億美元,如果計入監管資本,則相當於 8 個基點的 CET1 收益。儘管不受 LCR 要求的約束,但 M&T 估計其 9 月 30 日的 LCR 為 108%,超過瞭如果我們是 III 類機構時適用的監管最低標準。

  • Turning to slide 12. Average total deposits declined $0.7 billion to $162.7 billion. Noninterest-bearing deposits declined $1.1 billion to $44 billion, mostly from lower commercial noninterest-bearing deposits related to a single customer client.

    翻到第12張投影片。平均總存款減少0.7億美元,至1,627億美元。不計息存款存款減少了 11 億美元,至 440 億美元,主要原因是與單一客戶相關的商業無息存款減少。

  • We continue to consider the entirety of the customer relationships as we assess our overall deposit funding mix. Interest-bearing deposits increased $0.4 billion to $118.7 billion driven by growth in commercial and business banking, offset by the decline in consumer and institutional deposits. Interest-bearing deposit costs decreased 2 basis points to 2.36%, aided by lower retail prime time deposit costs and lower interest checking costs across other business lines.

    在評估整體存款資金結構時,我們將繼續全面考慮與客戶的關係。受商業和企業銀行業務成長的推動,計息存款增加 0.4 億美元,達到 1,187 億美元,但被消費者和機構存款的下降所抵消。受零售黃金時段存款成本下降以及其他業務線利息會計成本下降的推動,計息存款成本下降 2 個基點至 2.36%。

  • Continuing on slide 13. Noninterest income was $752 million compared to $683 million in the linked quarter. We saw continued strength across all fee income categories. Mortgage banking revenues were $147 million, up from $130 million in the second quarter. Residential mortgage revenues increased $11 million sequentially to [$108 million] from higher servicing fee income.

    繼續第13頁幻燈片。非利息收入為 7.52 億美元,而上一季為 6.83 億美元。我們看到所有費用收入類別都持續保持強勁勢頭。抵押貸款銀行業務收入為 1.47 億美元,高於第二季的 1.3 億美元。由於服務費收入增加,住宅抵押貸款收入季增 1,100 萬美元,達到 1.08 億美元。

  • Commercial mortgage banking increased $6 million to $39 million. Trust income was related -- was relatively unchanged at $181 million as the prior quarter seasonal tax preparation fees were largely offset by growth in wealth management and fee income. Trading and FX increased $6 million to $18 million from higher commercial customer swap activity.

    商業抵押貸款業務成長600萬美元,達到3,900萬美元。信託收入與此相關——基本上保持不變,為 1.81 億美元,因為上一季季節性報稅費用的增長很大程度上被財富管理和費用收入的增長所抵消。由於商業客戶掉期交易活動增加,交易和外匯交易額增加了 600 萬美元,達到 1,800 萬美元。

  • Other revenues from operations increased $39 million to $230 million, reflecting $28 million distribution of an earn-out payment, $20 million Bayview distribution, and the gain on the sale of equipment leases. These items were partially offset by $25 million notable items in the prior quarter.

    其他營運收入增加 3,900 萬美元至 2.3 億美元,其中包括 2,800 萬美元的盈利支付分配、2,000 萬美元的 Bayview 分配以及出售設備租賃的收益。這些項目被上一季 2500 萬美元的重大項目部分抵銷。

  • Turning to slide 14. Noninterest expenses for the quarter were $1.36 billion, increase of $27 million from the prior quarter. Salaries and benefits increased $20 million to $833 million, reflecting one additional working day and higher severance-related expense, which increased $17 million sequentially. FDIC expense decreased $9 million to $13 million, mostly related to the reduction and estimated special assessment expense.

    翻到第14張投影片。本季非利息支出為 13.6 億美元,比上一季增加 2,700 萬美元。工資和福利增加了 2000 萬美元,達到 8.33 億美元,這反映了多出一個工作日以及與遣散相關的支出增加,該支出環比增加了 1700 萬美元。FDIC 支出減少了 900 萬美元,降至 1300 萬美元,主要與減少和預計的特別評估費用有關。

  • Other costs of operations increased $23 million to $136 million, reflecting higher expense associated with the supplemental executive retirement savings plan due to market performance and the impairment of renewable energy tax credit investment. The energy -- the efficiency ratio was 53.6%, compared to 55.2% in the linked quarter.

    其他營運成本增加了 2,300 萬美元,達到 1.36 億美元,這反映出由於市場表現和再生能源稅收抵免投資減值,補充高管退休儲蓄計劃的相關支出增加。能源效率比為 53.6%,而上一季為 55.2%。

  • Next, on slide 15 for credit. Net charge-offs for the quarter were $146 million, or 42 basis points, increasing from 32 basis points in the linked quarter. The increase in net charge-offs reflects the resolution of several previously identified C&I credits, the largest -- the two largest of which totaled $49 million. CRE losses remain muted in the third quarter.

    接下來,請看第 15 頁,以便獲得學分。本季淨沖銷額為 1.46 億美元,即 42 個基點,比上一季的 32 個基點增加。淨沖銷額的增加反映了先前確定的幾項工商業信貸的解決,其中最大的兩項總額達 4,900 萬美元。商業地產第三季損失依然不大。

  • Nonaccrual loans decreased by $61 million. The nonaccrual ratio decreased 6 basis points to 1.1% driven largely by payoffs, paydowns, charge-offs of commercial and CRE nonaccrual loans. In the third quarter, we recorded a provision for credit losses of $125 million compared to net charge-offs of $146 million. Included in the provision expense is a $15 million provision for unfunded commitments related to the letter of credit to a commercial customer. The allowance for loan loss as a percent of total loans decreased 3 basis points to 1.58%, reflecting lower criticized loans.

    非應計貸款減少了 6,100 萬美元。非應計比率下降 6 個基點至 1.1%,主要原因是商業和商業房地產非應計貸款的償還、減免和核銷。第三季度,我們提列了 1.25 億美元的信貸損失準備金,而淨沖銷額為 1.46 億美元。準備金支出中包含 1500 萬美元的未兌現承諾準備金,該承諾與向商業客戶開立的信用證有關。貸款損失準備金佔貸款總額的百分比下降了 3 個基點至 1.58%,反映出受批評貸款減少。

  • Please turn to slide 16. The level of criticized loans was $7.8 billion, compared to $8.4 billion at the end of June. The improvement from the linked quarter was largely driven by $671 million decline in CRE criticized balances. The decline in CRE criticized balances was broadly based with lower criticized balances across nearly all property types.

    請翻到第16頁。受批評貸款的總額為 78 億美元,而 6 月底為 84 億美元。與上一季相比,業績的改善主要得益於商業房地產不良貸款餘額減少了 6.71 億美元。商業地產受批評餘額的下降是普遍現象,幾乎所有類型的房地產受批評餘額都有所下降。

  • Turning to slide 19 for capital. M&T's CET1 ratio was an estimated 10.99%, unchanged from the second quarter. The stable CET1 ratio reflects capital distributions including $409 million in share repurchases, offset by continued strong capital generation. In the third quarter, we also increased our quarterly dividend by 11% to $1.15. The AOCI impact on the CET1 ratio from available-for-sale securities and pension-related components combined would be approximately 13 basis points if included in regulatory capital.

    接下來請看第 19 張投影片,了解資金狀況。M&T 的 CET1 比率估計為 10.99%,與第二季持平。穩定的 CET1 比率反映了資本分配,其中包括 4.09 億美元的股票回購,但被持續強勁的資本產生所抵消。第三季度,我們也將季度股息提高了 11%,至 1.15 美元。如果將可供出售證券和退休金相關部分計入監理資本,則 AOCI 對 CET1 比率的影響約為 13 個基點。

  • Now turning to the slide for the outlook. First, let's begin with the economic backdrop. The economy continues to hold up well despite ongoing concerns and uncertainty regarding tariffs and other policies. The passage and signing of The One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law removed one source of uncertainty and also gave businesses more incentive to invest in new capital. The economy bounced back in the second quarter after having contracted in the first.

    現在就來看看展望方面的幻燈片。首先,讓我們從經濟背景說起。儘管關稅和其他政策方面持續存在擔憂和不確定性,但經濟仍保持良好勢頭。《一項偉大的法案》的通過和簽署成為法律,消除了一個不確定因素,也為企業投資新資本提供了更多動力。第一季經濟萎縮後,第二季經濟出現反彈。

  • Consumer spending proved resilient despite tariff impacts. Businesses continued engaging in CapEx, though it was heavily in tech, software, and transportation and equipment, while spending on new buildings remained in decline.

    儘管受到關稅影響,消費者支出依然保持韌性。企業繼續進行資本支出,儘管主要集中在科技、軟體、運輸和設備領域,而用於新建築的支出則持續下降。

  • Although overall economic activity was resilient, we remain attuned to the risk of the slowdown in coming quarters due to the weakening labor market. The possibility of declining jobs, or the rise in the unemployment rate, would likely cause weaknesses in consumer spending and possibly business CapEx, too.

    儘管整體經濟活動表現出韌性,但由於勞動力市場疲軟,我們仍然密切關注未來幾季經濟放緩的風險。就業機會減少或失業率上升的可能性,可能導致消費者支出疲軟,也可能影響企業資本支出。

  • We continue to monitor the possibility of a prolonged government shutdown and the potential impact on our customers, communities and broader economy. We remain well positioned for a dynamic economic environment with a strong liquidity, strong capital generation, and a CET1 ratio of nearly 11%.

    我們將繼續關注政府長期停擺的可能性及其對我們的客戶、社區和更廣泛的經濟可能造成的影響。我們擁有強勁的流動性、強大的資本創造能力,以及接近 11% 的 CET1 比率,因此我們已做好充分準備迎接充滿活力的經濟環境。

  • Now turning to outlook. We have three quarters of the year complete, we will focus on the outlook on the fourth quarter. We expect taxable equivalent NII of approximately $1.8 billion, which implies full-year NII excluding notable items to be at the low end of the $7 billion to $7.15 billion range, in line with the outlook we discussed in September. Fourth-quarter net interest margin is expected to be approximately 3.7%.

    現在來談談前景。今年前三個季度已經過去,我們將重點放在第四季度的展望。我們預計應稅等值淨利息收入約為 18 億美元,這意味著不計重大項目的全年淨利息收入將處於 70 億美元至 71.5 億美元區間的低端,這與我們 9 月份討論的展望一致。預計第四季淨利差約為3.7%。

  • Our forecast reflects two additional rate cuts in the fourth quarter. We expect continued loan growth and average total loans of $137 million to $138 million with growth in C&I, residential mortgage, and consumer, and a moderating pace in CRE decline. Average deposits are expected to be $163 billion to $164 billion. Our outlook for the fourth-quarter noninterest income was $670 million to $690 million, reflecting continued strength in mortgage, trust, service charges, and commercial services. We expect other revenues from operations to revert toward a more normalized levels.

    我們的預測顯示,第四季還將有兩次降息。我們預計貸款將繼續成長,平均貸款總額將達到 1.37 億美元至 1.38 億美元,其中商業和工業貸款、房屋抵押貸款和消費貸款將成長,而商業房地產貸款的下降速度將放緩。預計平均存款額為 1,630 億美元至 1,640 億美元。我們對第四季度非利息收入的預期為 6.7 億美元至 6.9 億美元,反映出抵押貸款、信託、服務費和商業服務持續強勁成長。我們預計其他營運收入將恢復到較正常的水平。

  • This would imply full-year noninterest income, excluding notable items, well above the top end of our prior range of $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion. Fourth-quarter expenses, including intangible amortization, are expected to be $1.35 billion to $1.37 billion. This would imply full-year expense in the top half of our prior outlook of $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion. This is being driven by an increase in professional services.

    這意味著全年非利息收入(不計重大項目)將遠高於我們先前預測的25億至26億美元區間的上限。第四季預計支出(包括無形資產攤銷)為 13.5 億至 13.7 億美元。這意味著全年支出將達到我們先前預測的 54 億美元至 55 億美元的上半部。這是由專業服務需求的成長所驅動的。

  • Net charge-offs for the fourth quarter are expected to be 40 to 50 basis points, with a full-year net charge-offs of less than 40 basis points. Our outlook for the fourth quarter tax rate is 23.5% to 24%. We offer -- we plan to operate with a CET1 ratio in the 10.75% to 11% range for the remainder of the year. We will be opportunistic with share repurchases, are also continuing to monitor the economic backdrop and asset quality trends.

    預計第四季淨沖銷額為 40 至 50 個基點,全年淨沖銷額低於 40 個基點。我們對第四季稅率的預期為 23.5% 至 24%。我們提供—我們計劃在今年剩餘時間內將 CET1 比率維持在 10.75% 至 11% 的範圍內。我們將伺機回購股票,同時也將持續關注經濟情勢和資產品質趨勢。

  • As shown on slide 21, we remain committed through our four priorities, including growing our New England and Long Island markets, optimizing our resources through simplification, making our systems resilient and scalable, and continuing to scale and develop our risk management capabilities. To conclude on slide 22, our results underscore an optimistic investment thesis. M&T has always been a purpose-driven organization with a successful business model that benefits all stakeholders, including shareholders.

    如投影片 21 所示,我們將繼續致力於我們的四大優先事項,包括發展新英格蘭和長島市場、透過簡化優化資源、使我們的系統具有彈性和可擴展性,以及繼續擴大和發展我們的風險管理能力。最後,在第 22 張投影片中,我們的結果強調了一種樂觀的投資觀點。M&T 一直是一家以目標為導向的組織,擁有成功的商業模式,使包括股東在內的所有利害關係人受益。

  • We have a long track record of credit outperforming through all economic cycles while growing within the markets we serve. We remain focused on share order returns and consistent dividend growth. Finally, we are a disciplined acquirer and a prudent steward for shareholder capital.

    我們在所有經濟週期中都保持著優異的信貸業績,並在我們服務的市場中不斷成長。我們將繼續專注於股票訂單回報和持續的股息成長。最後,我們是一家行事嚴謹的收購方,也是股東資本的謹慎管理者。

  • Now let's open the call up to questions before which Katie will briefly review the instructions.

    現在我們開始接受提問,在此之前,凱蒂會簡單回顧一下操作說明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

    (操作說明)Scott Siefers,Piper Sandler。

  • R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

    R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Daryl, thank you for taking the question. I wanted to -- wanted to ask first on loan growth. So really good traction in a few components of the loan portfolio, but CRE is still moderating, albeit at a slower pace. Maybe just sort of a thought on where we stand with the actual inflection of the CRE book, sort of timing and magnitude, stuff like that?

    達裡爾,謝謝你回答這個問題。我想——我想先問一下貸款成長方面的情況。因此,貸款組合中的某些部分確實取得了不錯的進展,但商業房地產市場仍在放緩,儘管成長放緩。也許可以稍微思考一下,我們目前對商業房地產書籍的實際轉折點處於什麼位置,例如時間節點和幅度等等?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. So if you want to talk about CRE and our customer since CRE, I would say it's looking like much more of a rebound now. The amount of production that's being done and that's going through our system, and our approval rates are double what they were in prior quarters. So we're really producing and having a lot more activity. Still having some payoffs and pay downs overall, but we feel very optimistic on the growth of that coming in the next quarter or two.

    是的。所以,如果你想談談商業房地產以及我們自商業房地產以來的客戶,我會說現在看來,情況已經明顯好轉。目前的生產量以及透過我們系統處理的產品數量,還有我們的核准率,都是前幾季的兩倍。所以我們確實在大量生產,而且活動也更加頻繁了。雖然整體上仍存在一些收益和損失,但我們對未來一兩個季度的成長前景非常樂觀。

  • If you look at the areas that we're really focused on right now, it's primarily in multifamily with industrial close second. We also are interested in looking at retail, hotel, and healthcare. That's on a case-by-case basis. But office, we know pretty much we're still looking to reduce there. But that had overall, I think we're really moving in the right direction and feel very good of what we're seeing and have real good positive trends moving forward.

    如果你看看我們目前真正關注的領域,你會發現主要是多戶住宅,工業地產緊隨其後。我們也對零售、飯店和醫療保健產業感興趣。這要視具體情況而定。但是在辦公室方面,我們基本上很清楚,我們仍然希望減少這方面的支出。但總的來說,我認為我們正朝著正確的方向前進,對我們所看到的感到非常滿意,並且未來會有非常好的積極趨勢。

  • R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

    R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Perfect. Okay. Thank you. And then maybe just if you could expand upon your thoughts on sort of M&T's position in the now consolidating large regional environment, just kind of given all the events in the last few weeks. So I think you all have been quite transparent about what you'd be interested in and have such a history of discipline. But just curious now that we're actually seeing activity.

    完美的。好的。謝謝。然後,鑑於最近幾週發生的所有事件,您能否詳細闡述您對 M&T 在當前整合的大型區域環境中的地位的看法?所以我覺得你們都非常坦誠地表達了自己的興趣所在,而且你們也都有著非常自律的特質。但現在我們確實看到有活動了,所以很好奇。

  • How do you sort of balance the -- maybe finite regulatory window, need to have willing sellers? Does that cause you at all to sort of expand your geographic base a little to increase the number of possibilities? Or will you simply kind of stay close to your [knitting]?

    如何平衡-或許有限的監理窗口期和需要有願意出售的賣家這兩者之間的關係?這是否會讓你稍微擴大一下你的地理範圍,以增加可能性?還是你只會待在離你很近的地方?[針織]?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Scott, we've been very successful with the model that we've had for a very long time. And our strategy is really to continue to grow share and customers in the markets that we serve. So I'm sure an acquisition will come at some point down the road, I'm not sure when that's going to be. When it happens, it will probably be within our footprint, may stretch into another footprint a little bit depending on who the company is that we partner with from that perspective.

    斯科特,我們長期以來一直採用的這種模式非常成功。我們的策略是繼續在我們服務的市場中擴大份額和客戶群。所以我相信,收購遲早會發生,但我不知道具體是什麼時候。如果這種情況發生,很可能在我們業務範圍內,也可能稍微擴展到其他業務範圍,這取決於我們與哪家公司合作。

  • But it's going to happen when it happens, Scott. Our strategy works. If you look at our performance in our earnings, all really strong, and we're going to continue to execute on the strategy and be very successful.

    但事情該發生的時候自然會發生,史考特。我們的策略奏效了。從我們的獲利表現來看,各項指標都非常強勁,我們將繼續執行該策略,並取得巨大成功。

  • R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

    R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Perfect. All right, thank you very much, Daryl.

    完美的。好的,非常感謝你,達裡爾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

    Gerard Cassidy,RBC。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Just to follow up on what you just said about the approvals on commercial real estate. I think you said they're double from what they were prior. Can you share with us a little deeper, how did that happen or what's changed to have more approvals?

    我只是想就您剛才提到的商業地產審批問題做個補充說明。我想你說過它們的數量是之前的兩倍。您能否更詳細地跟我們分享一下,這是如何發生的,或者說是什麼改變了審批流程?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • I think as we ramp back up and with our new systems and processes that we have earlier in the year, we just weren't running as smoothly as possible. That has eased up now, both our team and Peter D'Arcy's [world], our first-line folks as well as in the credit area, which Rich Barry and his team are working much closely together with the people on the line, and things are just flowing through a lot easier.

    我認為,隨著我們逐步恢復運營,以及我們年初啟用的新系統和流程的實施,我們的運作並沒有盡可能地順暢。現在情況有所好轉,我們團隊和 Peter D'Arcy 的團隊,我們的第一線員工以及信貸部門的員工都比以前好多了。 Rich Barry 和他的團隊與第一線員工密切合作,事情進展得更順利。

  • And that's not just CRE. We're also seeing it on the C&I front. Both in commercial as well as in our business banking area. So I think the momentum is growing, and we're having a lot more success, and a lot more wins and seeing more loans go on the books.

    這不僅僅指商業房地產。我們在工商業領域也看到了這種情況。無論是在商業銀行領域還是在我們的企業銀行領域。所以我認為勢頭正在增強,我們取得了更大的成功,贏得了更多比賽,也看到更多的貸款進入了賬簿。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Very good. And then just a broader picture. If we step back for a moment, you've had in the past some very good insights on what's going on in Washington with the regulators, and we saw the notice of proposed rule-making on matters that require attention MRAs. Can you give us your view of how the regulatory environment is changing? And how that may help your profitability going forward, as well as maybe the industry?

    非常好。然後,再從更宏觀的角度來看這個問題。如果我們回顧一下,您過去對華盛頓監管機構的動向有一些非常好的見解,我們也看到了關於需要關注的事項的擬議規則制定通知。您能否談談您對監管環境變化的看法?這又將如何幫助你以及整個產業未來的獲利能力呢?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. One of the big things that's happened that we've started to see now is we used to always get -- when you have a review, you would get observations. And then if it was more serious, you might get an MRA, or something really serious, an MRIA from that perspective. Observations are now being given. And the way we treat observations is you have a year to get it fixed before they come back to next year and if it makes sense, then we go ahead and get them done.

    是的。我們現在開始看到的一件大事是,過去我們總是會收到——當你進行評論時,你會收到一些意見。如果情況更嚴重,你可能會接受 MRA 檢查;如果情況非常嚴重,從這個角度來看,你可能會接受 MRIA 檢查。現在正在進行觀察。我們處理觀察結果的方式是,你有一年的時間來解決問題,然後它們會在明年再次出現,如果這樣做是合理的,那麼我們就會繼續下去。

  • And that's what's really helped a lot. By just having a recommendation to do something, you don't have a whole process and everything else that you have to do when you're trying to cleanse an official issue like an MRA or MRIA. So just that itself, the timeline to get it done a lot faster, a lot less people working on it.

    而這確實幫了大忙。僅僅有一項建議,並不意味著你就可以去做某事,而當你試圖解決像 MRA 或 MRIA 這樣的正式問題時,你需要經歷整個流程以及其他所有事情。所以,僅憑這一點,就能大幅縮短完成時間,減少參與的人員。

  • As far as how much that actually reduces in head count and all that, I think it's -- definitely will be less people needed in the remediation areas. We'll probably try to redeploy those of folks in other areas throughout the company because those people were really important during -- experienced people that you want to keep in the company from that perspective.

    至於這究竟能減少多少人員數量等等,我認為——修復區域肯定需要的人員會減少。我們可能會嘗試將這些人從公司其他部門重新調配過來,因為這些人在當時非常重要——從這個角度來看,這些都是你想留在公司裡的經驗豐富的人才。

  • So I don't look at it as too much as an expense save. I look at it as a way of just things getting done a lot faster, a lot smoother. And it gives our teams a lot more energy to be more productive as well, which is really, really important, I think, as we kind of look forward.

    所以我並不把它看作是節省開支。我認為這是一種讓事情做得更快、更順利的方式。而且,這也能讓我們的團隊更有活力,提高生產力,我認為這對我們展望未來來說真的非常重要。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • And just to stick with this for a second. Obviously, the Basel III end game is coming up soon, maybe by the end of the year, first of next year. Many investors have identified the benefits to the money center banks. But in terms of regional banks, what do you see the potential benefits for you from the Basel III end game being a lot less onerous than what it was proposed in July of '23?

    就讓我們再堅持一下這個話題。顯然,巴塞爾協議 III 的最終目標即將到來,可能在今年年底,也可能在明年年初。許多投資者已經意識到貨幣中心銀行的優勢。但就區域性銀行而言,您認為巴塞爾協議 III 的最終目標比 2023 年 7 月提出的目標要寬鬆得多,這對您來說有哪些潛在好處?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Our hope is that it's a lot more straightforward, really focused on key areas that we really should try to figure out what the capital is. In that original proposal, they had adjustments for people [banks our size], which has a very low market operation markets that build something out, that really we had very little risk in. didn't make a lot of sense. What they were looking and what charging for operational risk didn't seem very logical from that perspective either.

    我們希望它能更直接明了,並且真正聚焦在我們應該努力弄清楚資金來源的關鍵領域。在最初的提案中,他們針對像我們這樣規模的銀行做出了一些調整,這些銀行的市場營運規模非常小,而我們實際上承擔的風險很小。這不太合理。從這個角度來看,他們所關注的以及對營運風險收取的費用似乎也不太合乎邏輯。

  • So I'm sure it'll be much more streamlined, more trimmed down, and really focused on what's really needed from a capital perspective for the industry as well as for M&T.

    所以我相信它會更加精簡、更加精簡,並且真正專注於從資本角度來看,該行業以及 M&T 真正需要的東西。

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

    Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Thank you. Appreciate the insights.

    謝謝。感謝您的見解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erika Najarian, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking my question. Just wanted to follow up on Scott's line of questioning. Daryl, you mentioned production picking up the approval rate that you just talked about with Gerard, but rates are, in theory, supposed to trend lower from here. How should we think about the push-pull between some of these loans getting [re-fied] away from you and the production?

    感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想跟進一下斯科特提出的問題。達裡爾,你剛才提到製作水準提高了你和傑拉德討論的認可度,但理論上來說,認可度應該會從此呈現下降趨勢。我們該如何看待這些貸款從你手中[重新確定]以及生產之間的拉鋸戰?

  • In other words, is the fourth quarter still a good inflection point for when CRE balances at bottom? When do we -- can we start seeing period-end balances start to tick upward in a more consistent way?

    換句話說,第四季是否仍然是商業房地產觸底平衡的良好轉折點?我們何時才能看到期末餘額開始以更穩定的方式成長?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • I'd love to tell you the fourth quarter is the bottom and we hope it is, but you don't really know for sure. It really depends on what payoffs are coming through. I will tell you though, in 2026, for the amount of maturity that we see coming due in '26, it's much less in '26 than what we had in '25. So we're starting out of the blocks in '26 with just less payoffs coming through, which is a positive. And with our production that we're growing, I think, will be really helpful.

    我很想告訴你第四季是谷底,我們也希望如此,但你無法真正確定。這主要取決於最終能獲得哪些回報。不過我要告訴你的是,2026 年到期的債務總額遠低於 2025 年的債務總額。所以,2026 年我們開局不錯,只是收益會減少,但這反而是個好消息。我認為,隨著我們產量的增長,這將非常有幫助。

  • So if I had to guess right now, it's probably bottoming in the first quarter. But maybe if we get fortunate enough, maybe it will be sooner than that. But we feel really good that it's going to bottom and start to grow though. It's going to be a really good earning asset to get back to the positive momentum.

    所以如果現在讓我猜的話,它可能會在第一季觸底。但如果我們夠幸運,也許會更快。但我們感覺情況會好轉,它將會觸底並開始成長。它將成為一項非常好的盈利資產,有助於重回正軌。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Got it. And maybe the second question, Daryl, is M&T has been known to be -- to have a conservative culture, and there has been a lot of credit noise recently, whether it's related to [NDFI] or credit pre-announcements, which always makes the market nervous. So you're in the first management team to sort of call out NDFI and additionally, the RWA treatment of NDFI via SSFA.

    知道了。達裡爾,或許第二個問題是,M&T 銀行一直以來都以保守著稱,而且最近信貸市場有很多噪音,無論是與非存款金融機構 (NDFI) 相關的,還是信貸預告,這總是會讓市場感到緊張。所以你是第一個公開批評 NDFI 以及透過 SSFA 對 NDFI 進行 RWA 處理的管理團隊之一。

  • So maybe my question is this, maybe walk us through what the NDFI exposure is for M&T? You did mention that loans to financial and insurance companies was the driver for C&I growth? And maybe help investors figure -- like what questions do we ask in order to really properly assess the credit risk from a go-forward perspective? Because all we're getting from other banks is that, don't worry about it, this is way less frequency and weigh narrower severity than a direct C&I loan.

    所以,我的問題是,能否請您介紹一下M&T的NDFI風險敞口是什麼?您之前提到過,對金融和保險公司的貸款是工商業成長的驅動力?或許還能幫助投資人弄清楚──例如,為了從未來角度真正正確評估信用風險,我們該問哪些問題?因為我們從其他銀行得到的答覆是,別擔心,這種情況發生的頻率要低得多,而且嚴重程度也比直接商業和工業貸款要輕得多。

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thank you for the question, Erika. So if you look at the -- our NDFI portfolio. If you look at it in total, for one of the lower exposures were probably 7% or 8% of total loans is what we have in that big bucket. We really focus on businesses in this bucket that we really believe in, and are really good performing businesses that are on the lower end of the risk scale. So I'll start with our top three categories.

    謝謝你的提問,艾莉卡。所以,如果你看一下我們的非發展金融機構投資組合。如果從整體來看,風險敞口較低的貸款可能佔總貸款額的 7% 或 8%,這就是我們在這個大類別中的貸款金額。我們真正關注的是我們真心看好、業績優異且風險較低的這類企業。那麼,我就先從我們前三名的類別開始說起。

  • Fund banking which helped with our loan growth this past quarter and pretty much throughout the year, and has been growing nicely. And those are capital call lines, and we do (inaudible). But if we -- if you want to take more risk, which we don't is you would do NAV lending, which we don't do from that perspective. So in that case, it's our choice to stay in the more conservative [brain].

    基金銀行業務幫助我們實現了上個季度乃至全年的貸款成長,並且一直保持著良好的成長勢頭。這些都是資本召回額度,我們確實如此。(聽不清楚)但是,如果您想承擔更大的風險(我們並不想承擔),您可以進行淨資產值貸款,而從這個角度來看,我們並不做淨資產值貸款。所以,在這種情況下,我們選擇繼續保持較保守的立場。[腦]。

  • The other category that we have, that we have a fair amount in our industrial CRE made up a lot primarily from our REIT activity that we have. And we say with really good conservative known REITs that perform really well. So very good from an institutional performance.

    我們還有另一類資產,即工業商業地產,其中相當一部分主要來自我們的房地產投資信託基金活動。我們說,那些表現非常出色的、知名的、保守型房地產投資信託基金(REITs)確實很不錯。從機構層面來看,表現非常出色。

  • The other business I'd like to call out is residential mortgage warehouse. Done properly from an operations perspective, you really can't lose money from a credit perspective, it's really an operational risk business. And if you have good operations and good controls in place, it's a really safe business to run from that perspective.

    我想特別提一下另一家企業,那就是住宅抵押貸款倉庫。從營運角度來看,如果操作得當,從信貸角度來看,你真的不會賠錢,這實際上是一種營運風險業務。從這個角度來看,如果營運得當,控制措施到位,那麼經營這項業務就非常安全。

  • So those are the ones that we have that are our largest. We do dabble in other ones. And we do lend to BDCs, but we only focus on public BDCs. We don't do private ones. We don't think there's enough disclosure and just more of higher risk oriented. So we kind of split that there.

    所以這些是我們最大的幾個。我們也涉獵其他領域。我們確實會向商業發展公司提供貸款,但我們只專注於公共商業發展公司。我們不做私人訂製。我們認為資訊揭露不足,而且風險導向專案更多。所以我們就在那件事上分成了兩派。

  • As far as your SSFA question goes, SSFA is basically transactions where you have securities or loans that are basically put on the balance sheet and a structure. So there's no recourse on the loans. So your ability to get paid back is straightly from the assets. I think the way we're looking at it is we have a very small exposure today, and you have to be selective on what assets you're going to put into these structures.

    至於你提出的 SSFA 問題,SSFA 基本上是指將證券或貸款放入資產負債表和結構中的交易。所以貸款沒有追索權。因此,你收回款項的能力直接來自資產。我認為我們現在看待這個問題的方式是,我們目前的風險敞口非常小,而且你必須謹慎選擇要投入這些結構的資產。

  • And we have one structure that has loans, another structure that has mortgages. Most of our structure that we have is more in ABL right now. But the thing you have to really look at when you look at SSFAs, it's procyclical. So you start off with a lower RWA, and it's because of the structure that you have. But as delinquencies increase as the economy turns down, then your RWA automatically increases.

    我們有一種貸款結構,另一種是抵押貸款結構。我們目前大部分的資產結構都集中在資產抵押貸款(ABL)領域。但當你研究 SSFA 時,真正需要關注的是它的順週期性。所以你的 RWA 一開始就比較低,這是因為你擁有的結構。但隨著經濟下滑導致違約率上升,你的RWA(風險加權資產)也會自動增加。

  • So when times are really bad stress, these portfolios will actually use up capital when you actually need capital the most from that standpoint. So we're aware of that, and we're just trying to take it very conservative from that perspective. Now, times are very benign now, but the times could get a lot worse at some point down the road, and you just want to make sure you don't have too much of this procyclical type structures on your balance sheet.

    所以,當情況非常嚴峻、壓力巨大時,這些投資組合實際上會消耗資金,而從這個角度來看,這正是你最需要資金的時候。所以我們意識到了這一點,並且從這個角度來看,我們正努力採取非常保守的做法。現在情況非常溫和,但未來某個時候情況可能會變得更糟,所以你要確保你的資產負債表上沒有太多這種順週期結構。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Pancari, Evercore.

    John Pancari,Evercore。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • On the capital front, I know you're at 10.99 CET1, and you -- net of the $409 million in buybacks. As you look out, I know you have your 10.75% to 11% target. Can you provide us your updated thoughts around that target? What is keeping you from moving that lower and as you get clarity on the regulatory front? And once you do have that confidence and the ability to move it lower, is the way to help us frame where you think a bank of your size and your regulatory considerations where you really could be operating at?

    在資本方面,我知道你們的 CET1 為 10.99,你們——扣除 4.09 億美元的股票回購後——淨額為 10.99。我知道你的目標是達到 10.75% 到 11%。您能否提供您對該目標的最新想法?是什麼原因導致你遲遲不願意進一步降低價格,尤其是在監管政策明朗化之後?一旦你擁有了這種信心和能力,能夠將價格降低,那麼,能否幫助我們確定你認為像你這樣規模的銀行,考慮到監管方面的因素,你真正可以運營的價格區間是多少呢?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, thanks for the question, John. So first, I'd start with when we look at where we're positioned right now, we definitely feel comfortable in repurchasing shares. We didn't buy back as much as we could have this past quarter just because we think the market was a little bit overheated and there was more risk into the environment. So we're a little bit cautious there.

    是的,謝謝你的提問,約翰。首先,從我們目前的處境來看,我們絕對有信心回購股票。上個季度我們沒有像預期那樣大量回購股票,因為我們認為市場有點過熱,而且市場環境有更多風險。所以我們在這方面有點謹慎。

  • Our credit quality continues to improve really well, and that will probably continue. So we feel good about that. And the other thing is we're a little bit price sensitive on how much we buy depending on when we buy it. So it went up much higher last quarter, and we just bought less on a daily basis. So I mean, right now, we could buy anywhere from $400 million to $900 million this quarter, depending on how we feel about the economy and how we think the value of the stock is.

    我們的信貸品質持續穩定提升,而且這種趨勢可能會持續下去。所以我們對此感到很滿意。還有一點就是,我們對價格比較敏感,購買數量會根據購買時間而有所不同。所以上個季度價格漲得更高,而我們每天的購買量就減少了。所以我的意思是,目前,我們本季可能會買 4 億到 9 億美元的股票,這取決於我們對經濟的看法以及我們對股票價值的看法。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • And in terms of your CET1 target, the 10.75% to 11% range. What would you need to see to move that lower?

    至於您的 CET1 目標,範圍是 10.75% 到 11%。你需要看到什麼才能讓它降價?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • That's a discussion we'll have with our Board later this quarter and when we get our strategic plan approved, and go through that. But as we continue to perform, we'll look for opportunities to potentially try to decrease our capital ratio down over time as that makes sense. But that's really a Rene and Board question, and we'll probably have something to say about that come our January earnings call.

    我們將在本季稍後與董事會討論這個問題,屆時我們的戰略計劃也將獲得批准,我們將仔細研究該計劃。但隨著我們業績的不斷提升,我們將尋找機會,在適當的時候嘗試降低我們的資本充足率。但這實際上是 Rene 和董事會需要討論的問題,我們可能會在 1 月的財報電話會議上對此發表一些看法。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. And then if I could just throw in one more. On the -- just on the loan front, I appreciate the color you gave around the appetite around CRE and some of the loan growth dynamics. Can you maybe talk about competition a bit? Are you seeing -- what are you seeing in terms of loan spreads?

    知道了。好的。如果可以的話,我再加一個。就貸款方面而言,我很欣賞你對商業房地產市場需求和貸款成長動態的分析。能稍微談談競爭嗎?您觀察到的貸款利差情況如何?

  • We're hearing a little bit more that competition is starting to bear down again and the larger banks are becoming even more of a formidable competitor to the regionals on the lending front. What are you seeing there in terms of front-end loan spreads on the commercial book?

    我們聽到越來越多的消息稱,競爭再次加劇,大型銀行在貸款方面對區域性銀行構成了更強大的競爭壓力。您認為商業貸款的前端貸款利差如何?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, no, it's definitely a much more competitive. If you take and look at all of our commercial businesses, which is C&I and CRE together, I would say spreads are down maybe 10 or 15 basis points approximately from what we were originating maybe a quarter ago. But we're still seeing really good production. We're doing really good in our business banking business.

    是的,競爭確實激烈得多。如果把我們所有的商業業務,包括工商業貸款和商業房地產貸款,加起來來看,我認為利差可能比大約一個季度前下降了 10 到 15 個基點。但我們仍然看到非常好的產量。我們的企業銀行業務做得非常好。

  • And we don't talk much about business banking because it's really more of a deposit gatherer. It's 3 times more deposits than loans, but they've had really big success in the last quarter or two in growing our loan book and continue to build that out, which is really good for us. It's smaller end of the commercial space and it's really serving our communities and our clients in the right space.

    我們很少談論商業銀行業務,因為它實際上更像是一個存款機構。存款是貸款的 3 倍,但在過去一兩個季度裡,我們在擴大貸款規模方面取得了巨大的成功,並且還在繼續擴大規模,這對我們來說真的很好。它屬於商業空間的中小型領域,但它確實在合適的空間中為我們的社區和客戶提供了服務。

  • So with that said, I think it's competitive, but from a pricing perspective, we're pretty efficient so we can still get our returns with its pricing.

    綜上所述,我認為它具有競爭力,但從定價的角度來看,我們的效率很高,因此我們仍然可以憑藉這樣的定價來獲得回報。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Got it. All right. Thanks, Daryl.

    知道了。好的。謝謝你,達裡爾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris McGratty, KBW.

    克里斯·麥格拉蒂,KBW。

  • Christopher McGratty - Analyst

    Christopher McGratty - Analyst

  • Daryl, if you think about operating leverage going into 2026, or the medium term, can you just speak to how you think this plays out in terms of widening, narrowing, and then the drivers between revenues and expenses?

    Daryl,如果你考慮一下 2026 年或中期內的經營槓桿,你能否談談你認為這會如何發展,是擴大、縮小,以及收入和支出之間的驅動因素?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • What do you say is narrowing?

    你認為什麼是縮小範圍?

  • Christopher McGratty - Analyst

    Christopher McGratty - Analyst

  • Just operating leverage. Is it going to widen or narrow?

    僅經營槓桿。它會變寬還是變窄?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Scott, banking is simple when it comes down to this long term. But it's really just growing revenue faster than expenses at the end of the day. We have a lot of momentum right now on our fee businesses. And if you look at our fees growing with trust, mortgage, and our commercial swath of products that we have in the commercial area to our customers there, we're going to grow that really strong again this next year.

    是的,史考特,從長遠來看,銀行業務其實很簡單。但歸根究底,這其實只是收入成長速度超過支出成長速度的問題。目前我們的收費業務發展勢頭強勁。如果你看看我們隨著信託、抵押貸款以及我們在商業領域為客戶提供的各種產品而不斷增長的費用,你會發現,明年我們將再次實現強勁增長。

  • So that's a positive. We have positive momentum on our net interest margin. We guided up for the fourth quarter. We're going to hit [370s]. So we have momentum there. And CRE is going to start growing as well. So we'll have all of our portfolios growing.

    這是個好消息。我們的淨利差呈現正向成長動能。我們為第四季做好了準備。我們將要擊中[370秒]。所以我們在這方面勢頭正盛。商業地產也將開始成長。這樣一來,我們所有的投資組合都會成長。

  • So I'm pretty positive that our earning assets will start to grow maybe a little bit faster. And we still have good expansion on our net interest margin from that. So I feel good overall, and I think that should come down to a good operating leverage number.

    所以我相當肯定,我們的獲利資產可能會開始以更快的速度成長。而且,我們的淨利差仍有良好的擴張空間。所以我感覺總體上不錯,我認為這應該歸功於良好的經營槓桿率。

  • Christopher McGratty - Analyst

    Christopher McGratty - Analyst

  • Thanks for that. And then I guess a quick follow up kind of two parts. One, I guess, the visibility into the improvement in the criticized that you've noted in the [crewbook]. I presume that will continue. And then secondly, I just noticed a nuance in kind of your geography question about M&A. I think you said adjacent markets. Just if you could unpack that for a minute, that would be great.

    謝謝。然後我想快速跟進一下,大概分成兩個部分。我想,首先,你所指出的被批評者的改進之處顯而易見。[船員手冊]。我估計這種情況還會持續下去。其次,我注意到你關於併購的地理問題存在一個細微差別。我想你指的是鄰近市場。如果你能花一分鐘時間詳細解釋一下,那就太好了。

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, so from a credit quality perspective, our nonaccrual loans came down to 1.1%, and that was really driven by both C&I and CRE. When you look at the criticized balances, it is really a function of the CRE portfolio. CRE portfolio basically decreased in every category in CRE, but really driven by multifamily and healthcare. And those were the drivers there.

    是的,從信貸品質的角度來看,我們的非應計貸款降至 1.1%,這主要是由商業和工業貸款以及商業房地產貸款共同推動的。當你審視那些受到批評的資產負債表時,你會發現這實際上是商業房地產投資組合的問題。商業房地產投資組合在商業房地產的各個類別中基本上都出現了下滑,但主要下滑是由多戶住宅和醫療保健行業造成的。那些就是當時的司機。

  • We're pretty optimistic that that will continue for the next several quarters. So we actually might think -- below [in this slide] out of our presentation in a quarter or two, because we'll be pretty much back to normal credit quality and normal operating from that perspective. So we feel really good and excited about that.

    我們相當樂觀地認為,這種情況將在未來幾季持續下去。所以,我們或許可以考慮——如下[本投影片],在一兩個季度後結束我們的演示,因為從這個角度來看,我們的信貸品質和營運將基本恢復正常。我們對此感到非常高興和興奮。

  • As far as the geography goes, well, the only -- I say expanded geography is if you buy a bank that's -- it's headquartered in one of the 12 states that we are, but they might have some exposure outside the 12 states that's really how you might get a little bit some more growth in another area. But it's still really focused on getting scale and density in these 12 states and in the District of Columbia where we operate.

    就地理位置而言,嗯,我所說的擴展地理位置的唯一途徑是,如果你收購一家總部位於我們所在的 12 個州之一的銀行,但他們可能在 12 個州之外有一些業務,這才是你在其他地區獲得更多增長的真正方式。但它仍然非常專注於在我們運營的這 12 個州和哥倫比亞特區獲得規模和密度。

  • Christopher McGratty - Analyst

    Christopher McGratty - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you. Appreciate it.

    完美的。謝謝。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

    馬南‧戈薩利亞,摩根士丹利。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • You noted in your credit comments, if you have one-timers in C&I NCOs that was embedded in the overall 42 basis point NCO number. And then I guess your guide for next quarter is $40 million to $50 million. Are there more lumpy items that you're expecting next quarter? And I guess the bigger picture question is, how do you expect that to trend into 2026 and what's a good, normalized NCO run rate for M&T?

    您在信用評論中提到,如果您在 C&I NCO 中有一次性交易,則該交易已包含在 42 個基點的 NCO 總數中。那我猜你們下個季度的預期收入是4000萬美元到5000萬美元。預計下個季度還會有更多體積較大的商品嗎?我想,更重要的問題是,你預計到 2026 年,這種情況會如何發展? M&T 的合理、正常的 NCO 運作率是多少?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, no, thank you for the question. So this quarter, our net charge-offs were [$146]. It's really driven by two large C&I loans. There were two contractors that added up to $49 million. And that's really what drove us higher than our 40 basis points this quarter.

    不,謝謝你的提問。因此,本季我們的淨沖銷額為[146 美元]這實際上是由兩筆數額龐大的工商貸款推動的。共有兩家承包商,總金額達 4,900 萬美元。而這正是我們本季業績超過 40 個基點的原因。

  • As far as you go next quarter, we could have maybe another one or so in the fourth quarter. But we still think that net-net, year to date, we will come in for the year under 40 overall. So I think that's where it's kind of shaking out from that perspective.

    至於下個季度,我們或許在第四季還會再出現一兩個案例。但我們仍然認為,從今年迄今的總虧損額來看,我們今年的總虧損額將低於 40 虧損。所以我覺得從這個角度來看,事情最終就是這樣發展出來的。

  • As far as next year goes, we aren't going to give any guidance yet and all that. But the economy, still overall, is in relatively good shape. There is stress in certain areas, but overall, it's still in really good shape. So I wouldn't expect much change one way or the other for '26. But we'll give you more of that in January.

    至於明年的情況,我們現在還不會給出任何指導意見。但總體而言,經濟狀況仍然相對良好。某些領域存在一些壓力,但總體而言,情況仍然非常好。所以我預計2026年不會有太大變動。但我們會在一月為您帶來更多相關資訊。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Got it. And then separately, you spoke about more room on the operating leverage side. Some of your peers have spoken about accelerating investments in AI and tech. Can you talk a little bit about what M&T is doing there? And if you will need to spend more next year as you invest there?

    知道了。然後,您還單獨談到了在經營槓桿方面還有更大的空間。你們的一些同行談到要加快對人工智慧和科技領域的投資。能簡單談談M&T銀行在那裡開展的業務嗎?如果你明年需要在那裡投資並增加支出呢?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. We definitely are spending a lot of money in the company. In the 2.5 years I've been here, we've had some really significant projects that we've started and that we're starting to finish up. Like our -- in my world and the finance world, the general ledger will go live probably in the next quarter or so. So that will be a big success and also a big drop in run rate.

    是的。我們公司確實投入了很多資金。在我來這裡的兩年半時間裡,我們已經啟動了一些非常重要的項目,並且正在逐步完成。就像我們一樣——在我的世界和金融界,總帳系統可能會在下一個季度左右上線。所以這將會是一次巨大的成功,但同時也會導致勝率大幅下降。

  • But we have other projects right behind that, that we're going to be investing in. We're putting in a new debit platform for all to serve our customers. That's going in. We're looking at commercial servicing system that needs to get upgraded, or consumer servicing system that needs to get upgraded. So there's other investments out there.

    但我們還有其他項目緊隨其後,我們將對這些項目進行投資。我們正在為所有客戶提供新的金融卡支付平台。進去了。我們正在研究需要升級的商業服務系統,或是需要升級的消費者服務系統。所以還有其他投資機會。

  • From a data center perspective, our two data centers are up and operating. We're still moving applications (inaudible) that will take another year or two to get that fully accomplished. And Mike Wisler and his team are putting as many applications we can up into the cloud. So we can maybe get out of doing some of the data centers, which in the long run will actually reduce costs.

    從資料中心的角度來看,我們的兩個資料中心都已啟動並運行。我們仍在推進一些應用程式(聽不清楚),還需要一到兩年的時間才能完全完成。麥克威斯勒和他的團隊正在盡可能地將應用程式遷移到雲端。這樣我們或許可以省去一些資料中心的建設,從長遠來看,這實際上會降低成本。

  • So I think our cost will be controlled. I think our revenues will grow more than our expenses. But we're going to continue to invest in our company and do the right thing and continue to have really strong service quality for our customers and really predictable, sustainable platforms that serve.

    所以我認為我們的成本會受到控制。我認為我們的收入成長速度將超過支出成長速度。但我們會繼續投資公司,做正確的事,繼續為客戶提供真正強大的服務質量,以及真正可預測、可持續的服務平台。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

    馬特‧奧康納,德意志銀行。

  • Matt O-Connor - Analyst

    Matt O-Connor - Analyst

  • Just a bigger picture question on credit, which is obviously driving (inaudible) today. We're seeing some of these kind of one-offs in commercial that, according to the media, are fraud related. But what are your thoughts in terms of like why we're seeing these events now with rates kind of coming down? I thought maybe that would have taken the pressure off. But just any big picture thoughts as you guys kind of sit around and think about the credit environment.

    這只是關於信貸的一個更宏觀的問題,顯然,信貸是當今(聽不清楚)的主要驅動力。我們看到商業領域出現了一些這類個別案例,據媒體報道,這些案例與詐欺有關。但就目前利率下降的情況來看,您認為為什麼會出現這些事件?我當時想,那樣或許能減輕一些壓力。但大家坐下來思考一下信貸環境這個大方向的問題吧。

  • I'm sure you have talked about some of these kind of positions out there if you don't have any -- just any thoughts on that?

    我相信你一定也討論過這類職位,如果你自己沒有相關職位的話——你對此有什麼想法嗎?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • People arguably have a lot of different ideas on this. I think one of the things we think about is we've seen stress out in the marketplace for a while. So if you look at the consumers, we've been saying for years that in the lower end, call it, the [20%, 100%] in lower end are really hurting in that space. And those are the ones that are paying the higher credit card yields and all that. And then just -- it's really tough for them when they have to pay these high interest rates.

    人們對此可能有很多不同的看法。我認為我們考慮的一點是,我們已經看到市場壓力持續了一段時間。所以,如果你看看消費者,我們多年來一直說,在低端市場,比如說,低端市場的[20%,100%]消費者在這個領域真的受到了很大的打擊。而這些人正是那些支付更高信用卡收益率的人。然後,當他們不得不支付如此高的利息時,對他們來說真的非常艱難。

  • If you look, we've tightened a little bit in our small business areas. So business banking has pulled back a little just because of some of the weakness we were seeing there in the last year or so. And we have a leasing business that also we tightened up there as well.

    如果你仔細觀察,你會發現我們在小型企業領域收緊了一些政策。因此,由於過去一年左右我們看到的一些疲軟跡象,商業銀行業務有所收縮。我們還有一個租賃業務,我們也加強了這方面的管理。

  • So on those areas, we're going to stress. I think there's things that we're just trying to tighten and see. But there's definitely stress out there and sometimes people can only go so long and then they have to kind of throw in the towel.

    所以,我們將重點放在這些領域。我認為有些事情我們只是想加以改進和觀察。但生活中確實存在壓力,有時人們只能堅持一段時間,然後就不得不放棄。

  • On the larger end commercial, there are sectors that have been impacted in certain situations, whether it's tariffs or just other operating private equity coming into buying some of these. Companies, sometimes it's a good thing, sometimes maybe not, because they aren't experienced in turn to run these companies, like the original teams were. So you see one-offs from that perspective. So there's things that you'd have to be careful for.

    從規模較大的商業領域來看,某些行業在某些情況下受到了影響,無論是關稅還是其他營運私募股權公司收購其中一些行業。對一些公司來說,這有時是件好事,有時可能並非如此,因為他們不像最初的團隊那樣有經驗來經營這些公司。所以從這個角度來看,你看到的都是個案。所以有些事情你需要格外注意。

  • What we really focus on is the fundamentals, Matt, and really try to make sure we're underwriting and looking at everything we can, making really good, sound decisions for the long term. We don't want to put loans on the books that aren't going to be there in the next year or two because of a credit situation. So we're trying to do that and trying to be really holistic.

    馬特,我們真正關注的是基本面,我們會盡力確保我們做好核保工作,並考慮所有可能的情況,為長遠做出真正好的、合理的決策。我們不希望因為信貸狀況而在一兩年內無法償還的貸款被列入帳目。所以我們正在努力做到這一點,並力求做到全面周到。

  • Rich Barry, our Chief Credit Officer, he stood up some verticals and some specialty areas for like our leverage lending area, and a couple of other areas, just to focus to make sure that we have controls in place in areas that we would deem as higher risk, in place. So I think we're doing all the right things, really trying to be guarded from that.

    我們的首席信貸長 Rich Barry 建立了一些垂直領域和一些專業領域,例如我們的槓桿貸款領域和其他幾個領域,目的就是為了確保我們在我們認為風險較高的領域採取了相應的控制措施。所以我覺得我們正在做所有正確的事情,努力避免這種情況發生。

  • But net-net, if rates come down more, I think that will relieve some of the pressure. But right now, I think you're just seeing some of the pressures from -- it's been elevated for a while.

    但總的來說,如果利率進一步下降,我認為這將緩解一些壓力。但目前,我認為你只是看到了某些壓力——這種壓力已經持續了一段時間。

  • Matt O-Connor - Analyst

    Matt O-Connor - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then I'm sure it's a lot easier to kind of get comfortable with your book. You originally (inaudible) evaluate it kind of on an ongoing basis. And I guess, hypothetically, if you were kind of looking at an external book, do you still feel like there's enough visibility where you could evaluate it or are there enough red flags, again, just kind of generally in credit, these headlines that you're seeing that, that might give you a little pause? All hypothetical, obviously.

    那很有幫助。這樣一來,你肯定更容易適應自己的書。你最初(聽不清楚)是持續不斷地對其進行評估。我想,假設一下,如果你在看一本外部書籍,你是否仍然覺得它有足夠的可見性讓你進行評估,或者是否存在足夠的危險信號,比如,一般來說,在信貸方面,你看到的這些標題可能會讓你猶豫一下?顯然,這一切都只是假設。

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • I think -- I mean, it sounds like you're trying to lead to a question if we do a due diligence on a company and you're looking at a credit book and all that. I mean, it really -- if that's where you're going, it really starts with the culture and do they underwrite similar to how we underwrite. And that needs to get established upfront from that perspective, and you really need to know that, and trust that.

    我覺得——我的意思是,聽起來你是想引出一個問題,如果我們對一家公司進行盡職調查,你會查看其信用記錄等等。我的意思是,如果你真的要去那裡,那一切都要從文化開始,看看他們的核保方式是否和我們類似。從這個角度來看,這一點需要事先確定下來,你真的需要知道這一點,並且相信這一點。

  • Like when we acquired People's, we knew day one that their culture was really similar to the M&T culture, and that would fit in quite nicely from that perspective. But when you look at stuff, you have to be really careful and ask a lot of questions, and information, and keep digging until you get satisfied.

    就像我們收購 People's 銀行一樣,我們從一開始就知道他們的文化與 M&T 銀行的文化非常相似,從這個角度來看,這將非常契合。但是當你觀察事物時,你必須非常小心,提出很多問題,收集信息,並不斷深入挖掘,直到你滿意為止。

  • I mean, I think that's the way it works. You have to do your homework. It all goes back down to fundamentals again.

    我的意思是,我覺得事情就是這樣運作的。你必須完成作業。一切最終還是要回歸基本面。

  • Matt O-Connor - Analyst

    Matt O-Connor - Analyst

  • Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.

    好的,這很有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dave Rochester, Cantor.

    戴夫·羅徹斯特,領唱。

  • David Rochester - Research Analyst

    David Rochester - Research Analyst

  • Back on your margin comment, you mentioned earlier, you had some momentum there guiding to the [370] level in 4Q. Do you see any upside potential of that going forward given your outlook for more Fed rate cuts on the one hand? And then given the repricing that you see you still have left to do on the fixed rate segments of your loan securities books?

    回到你之前提到的邊際收益評論,你在那方面有一些勢頭,引導第四季達到 [370] 水準。鑑於您一方面預期聯準會會進一步降息,您認為未來這方面還有任何上漲潛力嗎?那麼,考慮到您貸款證券帳簿中固定利率部分仍需進行重新定價,您又該如何應對呢?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • So I mean, what we have modeled right now is we have two cuts in this year and three cuts next year, so five cuts total. And when we do our modeling, our base scenario embeds the forward curve. So when you look at that, and then you look at it down 100, our down 100 is basically flat from an NII perspective. So that's really rates going down 200-plus basis points over 12 months from that. So I think we're very neutral from that perspective.

    所以我的意思是,我們目前的模型是,今年裁員兩次,明年裁員三次,總共裁員五次。當我們進行建模時,我們的基本情境會嵌入遠期曲線。所以當你觀察這一點,然後再觀察下降 100 倍的情況,從 NII 的角度來看,下降 100 倍的情況基本上是持平的。所以,利率實際上會在12個月內下降200多個基點。所以我覺得從這個角度來看,我們是非常中立的。

  • If rates go up 100, which is basically rates staying flat because you got the forward curve embedded into that, we were off just a touch so a little bit -- I guess, I'd say we were a little bit more liability sensitive on the way up a little bit. But the way our balance sheet is really structured is we have to hedge to kind of have the position that we are at. And if we don't do any hedging on how we operate within a year, we can become very asset sensitive very quickly, just naturally as things happen.

    如果利率上漲 100%,這基本上意味著利率保持不變,因為遠期曲線已經嵌入其中,我們先前的預測略有偏差,所以——我想,我會說我們在利率上漲的過程中對負債更加敏感一些。但實際上,我們的資產負債表結構決定了我們必須進行避險才能達到我們目前的狀況。如果我們一年內不採取任何對沖措施來應對我們的營運方式,隨著情況的發展,我們自然很快就會變得對資產非常敏感。

  • So we're constantly having to hedge to kind of neutralize our interest rate sensitivity from that perspective. So we feel really good about where our net interest margin is. We do have a piece of it, obviously, based upon the shape of the yield curve. That's also impactful for us. That's still -- we're still benefiting from that from a [roll-on roll-off] basis.

    因此,從這個角度來看,我們不得不不斷地進行對沖,以抵消我們對利率的敏感度。所以我們對目前的淨利差狀況非常滿意。顯然,根據殖利率曲線的形狀,我們掌握了其中的一部分資訊。這對我們來說也很有影響力。也就是說,我們仍然能夠從中受益,而且是按滾動方式循環利用的。

  • If you look at our loan book on the consumer book that we have, we're still probably getting about 75 basis point spread positive there. Investment portfolio is probably going to be anywhere from 50 to 75 basis points positive there from that perspective. So we're still benefiting from the roll on and roll off from that perspective. So that's really good.

    如果你看我們現有的消費貸款組合,我們可能仍然能獲得大約 75 個基點的正利差。從這個角度來看,投資組合的報酬率可能會在 50 到 75 個基點之間。所以從這個角度來看,我們仍然受益於滾動式開發和滾動式開發。那真是太好了。

  • And our deposit betas are 54%. We came in, and we think that's pretty much what it was when rates were going up. So coming down, we're going to mirror that as well. So we feel very good that will stay in the low to mid-50s from a beta perspective. So I think we got things positioned pretty well from a sensitivity perspective on NII and feel good of what we're guiding to.

    我們的存款β係數為54%。我們進來後,覺得利率上漲時的情況大致就是這樣。所以,下來的時候,我們也要複製這個做法。因此,從測試版的角度來看,我們非常有信心,價格會保持在 50 左右的低點到中位數。所以我覺得從 NII 的敏感度角度來看,我們已經把事情安排得相當不錯,並且對我們正在引導的方向感到滿意。

  • David Rochester - Research Analyst

    David Rochester - Research Analyst

  • So it sounds like it all adds up to some upside potential there to that [370] going forward, all else equal. Great. Maybe just back on your comments on the government shutdown and M&T being ready for that. It doesn't sound like you're too concerned about it right now given your comments, but when would you start to get worried about it from a credit perspective? How long would this have to drag on before you guys get more concerned about it?

    所以聽起來,在其他條件不變的情況下,[370] 未來可能會有一些上漲空間。偉大的。或許可以回到你之前關於政府停擺以及M&T銀行為此做好準備的評論上來。從你的評論來看,你現在似乎不太擔心這件事,但從信用角度來看,你什麼時候才會開始擔心呢?這件事要拖多久你們才會開始重視?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • From a government shutdown, we are monitoring and looking at various sectors that potentially could happen. Obviously, it hasn't been around long enough to know, but we've seen some stress in governing contractors. Obviously, this puts more stress on them because of the shutdown. So that's important. The SBA business has kind of shut down right now.

    政府停擺可能會對各個領域造成影響,我們正在密切關注並研究這一潛在後果。顯然,它存在的時間還不夠長,不足以了解情況,但我們已經看到承包商管理方面存在一些壓力。顯然,停工給他們帶來了更大的壓力。所以這一點很重要。美國小型企業管理局(SBA)的業務現在基本上已經停滯了。

  • So that's some stress from that. (inaudible) and FHA, we're looking at that to see what impact that might have. You have C&I healthcare from a reimbursement perspective, that will probably impact if it goes longer, reimbursements might slow down or stop. And then nonprofits that get grants and then government employees, which is heart and soul of the government and those people at all.

    所以這方面確實存在一些壓力。 (聽不清楚)我們正在調查聯邦住房管理局(FHA),看看這可能會產生什麼影響。從報銷的角度來看,您享有 C&I 醫療保健,如果這種情況持續下去,報銷速度可能會減慢或停止,這可能會產生影響。然後是獲得撥款的非營利組織,還有政府僱員,他們是政府的靈魂所在,也是所有人的靈魂所在。

  • So we're monitoring all those areas. I haven't really seen anything yet. But if it goes on a few months, I think you're starting to see some stress maybe.

    所以我們正在監測所有這些領域。我還沒真正看到任何東西。但如果這種情況持續幾個月,我想你可能開始感到壓力了。

  • David Rochester - Research Analyst

    David Rochester - Research Analyst

  • Yeah. Okay. Maybe just one last one. I was hoping you just give a little update on your exposure, if you have anything to the tricolor situation? I know you don't have any credit exposure, but if you just talk about anything like from a legal perspective or anything else there, it'd just be great to hear how you're assessing that risk just given Wilmington's roles there?

    是的。好的。或許就最後一個吧。我希望你能簡單更新一下你那邊的情況,如果你對三色旗的情況有什麼了解的話?我知道你沒有任何信貸風險敞口,但如果你能從法律或其他角度談談你的看法,那就太好了,我很想听聽你是如何評估威爾明頓在其中扮演的角色所帶來的風險的?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, happy to talk about it. So first of all, as we publicly reported, there are allegations of fraud, which is never good for an industry overall. And unfortunately, we will have, from time to time, but we expect that the industry will improve over time to make sure that such events happen less frequently. We are and always have been a very client-centric culture and company, and we will always strive to provide the best services and execution.

    是的,我很樂意談論這個主題。首先,正如我們公開報導的那樣,存在欺詐指控,這對整個行業來說絕非好事。不幸的是,這種情況偶爾會發生,但我們希望隨著時間的推移,業界能夠不斷改進,以確保此類事件發生的頻率降低。我們一直以來都是以客戶為中心的企業文化和公司,我們將始終努力提供最好的服務和執行。

  • We've got a thorough review of what we're looking at and enhancing our quality and service, and we still believe in our Corporate Trust business. Feel good about where we are and just looking for better ways to partner with our clients. Regarding your current question that you have, it clearly will play out over a long period of time. It's really not helpful to kind of speculate what's going to happen from that perspective.

    我們對正在關注和提升品質和服務方面的內容進行了全面審查,並且我們仍然對我們的企業信託業務充滿信心。我們對目前的狀況感到滿意,並正在尋找與客戶建立更好合作關係的方式。關於你目前提出的問題,顯然需要很長時間才能得到解答。從這個角度去猜測會發生什麼,其實也沒有什麼幫助。

  • We were -- our roles in the transaction, we have no lender exposure from M&T, or Wilmington Trust, whatsoever. We -- our roles that we have there were focused in the warehouse account bank and custodian, and on the securitization (inaudible) owner trustee, indenture trustee, custodian, [pain] agent, [not] register and certificate register. Those were our roles that we have from that perspective.

    我們在交易中扮演的角色是,我們與 M&T 銀行或 Wilmington Trust 沒有任何貸款方關係。我們-我們在那裡扮演的角色主要集中在倉庫帳戶銀行和託管人,以及證券化(聽不清楚)所有者受託人、契約受託人、託管人、[疼痛]代理人、[非]登記人和證書登記人。從這個角度來看,這就是我們所扮演的角色。

  • So there's no credit exposure that we have there. So I think that's really what we see right now, and we're just going through the process and seeing how things play out. And there will probably be people that see other people just because of the bankruptcy and what happens, but we'll see if we're impacted or not from that, we don't know.

    因此,我們在那裡沒有任何信用風險敞口。所以我覺得這就是我們目前所看到的,我們正在經歷這個過程,看看事情會如何發展。有人可能會因為破產和隨之而來的事件而與其他人接觸,但我們是否會受到影響,我們不得而知。

  • David Rochester - Research Analyst

    David Rochester - Research Analyst

  • All right. Thanks, Daryl. Appreciate it.

    好的。謝謝你,達裡爾。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Usdin, Autonomous.

    Ken Usdin,自主。

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

    Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • Daryl, just one quick one. You mentioned in the slides that the fourth-quarter expense stuff up, you pointed out professional services. I know you guys typically do have higher expenses, third to fourth. But I'm just wondering, is that a specific nuance that you're just finishing some projects or something like that?

    達裡爾,就問一個問題。你在投影片中提到第四季的支出出了問題,你特別指出了專業服務費用。我知道你們三、四線隊伍的開銷通常比較高。我只是好奇,這是不是代表你正在完成一些專案之類的?

  • And just obviously, we'll hear more in January about what next year's expenses look like, but I just want to know if that's atypical, or more kind of the normal ramp that we typically see towards year end?

    很顯然,我們會在一月份聽到更多關於明年支出情況的消息,但我只是想知道這是否屬於異常情況,還是更像是我們通常在年底看到的正常成長趨勢?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Ken, we have a lot of projects going on, and we're just trying to get some of them finished off. So it's kind of a cost of getting things done is just increase in expenses from a professional services perspective. We'll give you guidance for '26, and we will make sure that we have revenue growing faster than expenses.

    肯,我們有很多項目正在進行中,我們正在努力完成其中一些項目。所以,從專業服務的角度來看,完成工作的成本就是費用的增加。我們將為您提供 2026 年的指導,並確保我們的收入成長速度超過支出成長速度。

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

    Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • Okay. All right. Got it. Thanks for that clarification.

    好的。好的。知道了。謝謝你的解釋。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christopher Spahr, Wells Fargo.

    克里斯多福‧斯帕爾,富國銀行。

  • Christopher Spahr - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Spahr - Senior Analyst

  • Thanks for taking the question. First is the buybacks during the quarter and you kind of indicated like you were being a little price sensitive. Just with the accumulation of capital regulatory relief coming in, AOCI becoming even more favorable for you. I'm a little surprised that you kind of talked about kind of being price sensitive just given where the overall stock is and your accumulation of capital?

    感謝您回答這個問題。首先是本季的股票回購,而你似乎也表現出對價格有些敏感。隨著資本累積監管減免措施的出台,AOCI 對您來說將變得更加有利。考慮到股票的整體價格以及你累積的資本,我有點驚訝你居然會談到對價格比較敏感?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • We just have a grid that we have, Chris, in that depending on what the tangible book level is and what we're trading at, we have certain amounts that we buy at certain levels. And we adjusted it fluid from that perspective. But just like investors out there, we're investing in our company as well, and we think of it the same way.

    克里斯,我們只是有一個網格,根據實際帳面價值和我們的交易價格,我們會在特定的價位買入一定數量的股票。我們正是從這個角度對其進行了靈活調整。但就像其他投資者一樣,我們也在投資自己的公司,我們也是這麼想的。

  • Christopher Spahr - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Spahr - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And as a follow up, with five rate cuts kind of in the forward curve, what is your outlook for deposit growth over the next year or so?

    好的。其次,考慮到未來五年內利率將下調五次,您對未來一年左右的存款成長前景有何看法?

  • Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Daryl Bible - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. My guess is our deposit growth -- and we'll give you guidance in January. But deposit growth and loan growth shouldn't be much different than really the growth of the economy, plus or minus a little bit is what it is. So economy grows 2% or 3%, I think it would be in that same neighborhood.

    是的。我估計我們的存款成長率會很高——我們將在1月給出具體預測。但存款成長和貸款成長應該與經濟成長的實際成長相差不大,上下略有波動即可。所以經濟成長2%或3%,我認為結果應該也差不多。

  • Christopher Spahr - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Spahr - Senior Analyst

  • All right. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's Q&A. I will now turn the program back over to our presenters for any additional or closing remarks.

    謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把主持權交還給各位主持人,請他們作補充或總結發言。

  • Steven Wendelboe - Senior Vice President, Market & Investor Relations

    Steven Wendelboe - Senior Vice President, Market & Investor Relations

  • Thank you all for participating today, and as always, if clarification is needed, please contact our investor relations department. Have a good one.

    感謝各位今天的參與,如有任何疑問,請隨時聯繫我們的投資者關係部門。祝你一切順利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's event. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的活動到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。