ArcelorMittal SA (MT) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team.

各位下午好。我是來自安賽樂米塔爾投資人關係團隊的 Daniel Fairclough。

Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal's performance and progress in the first quarter of 2026. Leading today's call will be our Group CFO, Mr. Genuino Christino.

感謝各位參加本次電話會議，討論安賽樂米塔爾在 2026 年第一季的業績表現與進展。今天的會議將由本集團財務長（CFO）Genuino Christino 先生主持。

Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the presentation that was published on our website this morning. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on Slide 20 of that presentation. Following opening remarks from Genuino, we will move directly to the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

在開始之前，我想先說明幾項例行事項。如同以往，我們不會逐頁講解今天早上已在官網發布的簡報。不過，我確實想提醒各位注意該簡報第 20 頁的免責聲明。在 Genuino 發表開場致詞後，我們將直接進入問答環節。(接線員指示)

And with that, I will hand the call over to Genuino.

那麼，我現在把電話交給 Genuino。

Thanks, Daniel. Welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. As usual, I will keep my remarks brief and much of what I say will echo the messages from recent quarters. That reflects the consistency of our performance, the clarity of our focus and the discipline with which we continue to execute our strategy.

謝謝你，Daniel。各位好，感謝參加今天的電話會議。如同以往，我會簡短說明，我所談的許多內容也會呼應近幾季的訊息。這反映了我們表現的一致性、聚焦方向的清晰度，以及我們持續以紀律執行策略的方式。

What we are delivering at the bottom of the cycle positions us very well for the near future, particularly as more favorable policy conditions translate into a stronger operating environment with improving margins and returns.

我們在景氣循環底部所交出的成果，使我們在不久的將來具備非常有利的定位，特別是當更有利的政策條件轉化為更強的營運環境、帶動利潤率與報酬改善之際。

Alongside the impact of our growth strategy, this supports the free cash flow outlook and the delivery of consistent capital returns to shareholders. But first, I want to address safety. Our multi-year safety transformation program is now delivering more consistent and improved outcomes across our organization.

再加上我們成長策略的影響，這也支持自由現金流的展望，並能持續為股東提供穩定的資本回饋。但首先，我想談談安全。我們為期多年的安全轉型計畫，如今正為整個組織帶來更一致且更佳的成果。

Leadership expectations are clearly defined, risk management practices are being applied more uniformly and our focus on process safety has expanded across installations. Advanced analytics, including AI are strengthening these efforts, for example, enabling early identification of workers entering hazardous areas and triggering fast alerts and interventions that human monitoring alone.

領導階層的期望已明確界定，風險管理作法正更一致地被採用，而我們對製程安全的重視也已擴展至各項裝置與設施。先進分析（包含 AI）正在強化這些努力，例如可及早辨識進入危險區域的員工，並觸發快速警示與介入措施，這是僅靠人工監控所難以做到的。

Most importantly, the sustained focus on safety is translating to tangible improvements in performance across the group. We provide a more detailed account of this progress in the sustainability report published last week, which I encourage you to review for a fuller picture of how we are advancing our safety objectives. Now I want to focus this quarter on three key points.

最重要的是，對安全的持續聚焦正轉化為整個集團在績效上的具體改善。我們在上週發布的永續報告中更詳細說明了這項進展，我鼓勵各位閱讀，以更全面了解我們如何推進安全目標。接下來，我想在本季聚焦三個重點。

First and foremost, our results consistently demonstrate clear structural improvements. In the first quarter, we delivered EBITDA of $131 per tonne, up $15 per tonne year-on-year and around 50% higher than our historical average margins.

第一，也是最重要的，我們的業績持續展現明確的結構性改善。第一季我們的 EBITDA 為每噸 131 美元，年增每噸 15 美元，且約較我們歷史平均利潤率高出 50%。

This clearly demonstrates the strengthening of our underlying earnings power over recent years. Importantly, this performance does not yet reflect the significantly stronger price environment seen in recent months, which we expect to be more fully evident in our second quarter results. Underlying free cash flow performance was robust.

這清楚顯示近年來我們的基礎獲利能力正在增強。重要的是，這項表現尚未反映近幾個月顯著更強的價格環境；我們預期這將在第二季業績中更充分顯現。基礎自由現金流表現強勁。

Excluding the seasonal working capital investment and the strategic growth CapEx, underlying free cash flow was running at an annualized rate of over $2 billion. Again, considering where we are in the cycle, this represents a strong outcome.

若排除季節性的營運資金投入以及策略性成長資本支出（CapEx），基礎自由現金流的年化水準超過 20 億美元。同樣地，考量我們所處的景氣循環位置，這是一個強勁的成果。

Consistent and disciplined execution of our strategy is driving improved performance and providing the capacity to continually invest with discipline and focus and materially enhance the future earnings potential of ArcelorMittal. This brings me to my second point, our compelling growth opportunities, which clearly set us apart from our peers.

我們一貫且有紀律地執行策略，正推動績效改善，並提供持續以紀律與聚焦進行投資的能力，從而實質提升安賽樂米塔爾未來的獲利潛力。這也帶到我的第二點：我們極具吸引力的成長機會，明顯使我們有別於同業。

We are allocating capital to the highest return opportunities. This includes projects that are actively enabling the energy transition, expanding our iron ore mining capacity and adding new value-added capabilities. We recently approved an EAF investment in Dunkirk.

我們將資本配置到報酬率最高的機會上。這包括積極促進能源轉型的專案、擴充我們的鐵礦石採礦產能，以及新增高附加價值能力。我們近期已核准在敦克爾克（Dunkirk）的電弧爐（EAF）投資。

The decision was enabled by the more supportive policy backdrop, the cost visibility from a competitive long-term energy contract and the support of the French government. Our EAF projects are expected to deliver incrementally high EBITDA to provide an acceptable return on the capital deployed.

此一決策得以推進，係因更具支持性的政策背景、具競爭力的長期能源合約所帶來的成本可視性，以及法國政府的支持。我們的 EAF 專案預期將帶來額外的較高 EBITDA，以使投入資本獲得可接受的報酬。

So we have reflected Dunkirk together with the previously announced EAF projects in Sestao and Gijon into the expected EBITDA impact from strategic projects. This now stands at an incremental $1.8 billion from 2026 onwards. My final point is on the positive outlook, which is underpinned by trade policy.

因此，我們已將敦克爾克與先前公布的塞斯陶（Sestao）與希洪（Gijon）EAF 專案一併納入策略性專案的預期 EBITDA 影響。自 2026 年起，該增量目前為 18 億美元。我的最後一點是正向展望，而其基礎來自貿易政策。

Given the change to trade policy, the steel sector today offers much more defensive characteristics, particularly in Europe than it did in the past. More effective trade protections are leading to increasingly regionalized market structures, enabling domestic producers to recapture market share from unfairly subsidized imports.

鑑於貿易政策的變化，鋼鐵產業如今展現出更強的防禦性特質，尤其在歐洲，相較過去更為明顯。更有效的貿易保護正促使市場結構日益區域化，使本土生產商得以從不公平補貼的進口品手中重新奪回市占。

The biggest shift occurring in Europe. We are very pleased with the agreement achieved in the new Tariff Rate Quota tool in Europe. As a result, we can expect this to be in effect from July 1, 2026. Together with CBAM, this underpins our positive outlook for our European business.

最大的轉變發生在歐洲。我們對歐洲新的關稅配額（Tariff Rate Quota）工具所達成的協議感到非常滿意。因此，我們預期該措施將自 2026 年 7 月 1 日起生效。再加上 CBAM，這支撐了我們對歐洲業務的正向展望。

We are seeing stronger customer engagement, higher order inquiries and customers shifting more towards domestic supply. This is apparent in the material improvement in steel prices and spreads since the start of the year.

我們看到客戶互動更為積極、訂單詢問增加，且客戶更傾向轉向本土供應。這也反映在今年以來鋼價與價差的顯著改善上。

As a result, despite the volatility of energy markets caused by the conflict in Iran, we continue to expect our production and shipments to improve across all regions in 2026. And we should see a clear improvement in our EBITDA in all Steel segments next quarter.

因此，儘管伊朗衝突導致能源市場波動，我們仍預期 2026 年各區域的產量與出貨量將持續改善。而且在下一季，我們應可看到所有鋼鐵事業部門的 EBITDA 明顯提升。

As I conclude, the message is simple. We are consistently delivering structurally improved results while executing our strategy with discipline. Our high-return growth opportunity to differentiate us from our peers as does our track record of capital returns through the consistent application of our policy.

在我總結時，訊息很簡單。我們在以紀律執行策略的同時，持續交出結構性改善的業績。我們具高報酬的成長機會使我們有別於同業，我們也透過一貫落實資本配置政策，在資本回饋方面建立了良好紀錄。

That framework has already delivered a 38% reduction in our share count and a doubling of the dividend over the past 5 years. At the same time, we have advanced the business strategically, enhancing resilience and structurally improving returns on capital, all achieved while maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet.

在過去 5 年中，該架構已使我們的流通股數減少 38%，並使股利倍增。同時，我們也在策略上推進業務，提升韌性並結構性改善資本報酬率，而這一切都是在維持強健的投資等級資產負債表的情況下達成。

With that, Daniel, I believe we can begin the Q&A.

以上，Daniel，我想我們可以開始問答了。

Great. Thank you, Genuino. So we have quite a long questions -- list of questions already. So we will move to the first, which we'll take from Alan.

很好。謝謝你，Genuino。我們目前已經有相當長的問題——問題清單。那我們先從第一位開始，請 Alan 提問。

Thank you for taking my question, Daniel, and good afternoon, everyone. A couple of questions from my side. The usual question is probably a good place to start. If you can walk us through the usual profit bridges Q1 versus Q2? And where do you see the greatest delta in prices and volumes? And how are your divisional costs evolving sequentially, including the CO2 cost implications in Europe?

Daniel，謝謝讓我提問，各位下午好。我這邊有幾個問題。先從一個常見問題開始可能比較合適。你能否帶我們走一遍第一季相較第二季的常規獲利橋接（profit bridge）？你認為價格與銷量的最大變動（delta）會出現在哪些部分？另外，你們各事業部門的成本按季變化如何，包括歐洲 CO2 成本影響？

That's the first question. Thanks.

這是第一個問題。謝謝。

So I will ask Daniel to start with the bridge. Daniel, do you want to kick it off?

那我先請 Daniel 從橋接開始。Daniel，你要先開場嗎？

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Genuino. And it's a very simple bridge, which you've already alluded to, I think, in your opening remarks, you referenced that we expect all of the Steel segments to improve in the second quarter relative to the first quarter. And the drivers behind that improvement are common across the segments. So it's a theme of improved volumes and improved prices.

好，當然。謝謝你，Genuino。而且這個橋接其實很簡單，你在開場致詞裡我想已經提到過了，你提到我們預期所有鋼鐵事業部在第二季相較第一季都會改善。而推動這項改善的因素在各事業部是共通的。也就是出貨量提升與價格提升的主題。

So that's applicable to Europe. It's applicable to North America, and it's applicable to Brazil?

所以這適用於歐洲。也適用於北美，並且也適用於巴西？

Yeah. Perhaps then I will add, Daniel. I mean the point on carbon cost, I mean, as you know, I mean, we have the new benchmarks, right, from beginning of the year, and that's ETS 4.2. So I'm sure you know what it means in terms of reduction of free allowances, right? But I think what is important here, and we have in our results is that now with CBAM, which so far, based on what we can see, is proving to be very effective, right?

是的。或許我再補充一下，Daniel。關於碳成本的部分，如你所知，我們從年初開始有新的基準，對，就是 ETS 4.2。所以我相信你知道這在減少免費配額方面代表什麼，對吧？但我認為這裡重要的是，而且我們在業績裡也反映出來的是，現在有了 CBAM，就目前我們所看到的情況，它證明是非常有效的，對吧？

I mean we see that prices since the introduction of CBAM has moved up by this year, just look at the index almost EUR100, right? And you don't see that yet in our results. You see, of course, the costs in Europe already, right, as we accrue the higher CO2 costs, but you don't see yet the benefits of CBAM, that's I would say. So that should come, of course, from quarter two onwards.

我的意思是，我們看到自從引入 CBAM 以來，今年價格已經上移，只要看一下指數就接近上升了約 100 歐元，對吧？而你在我們的業績裡還看不到這一點。你當然已經在歐洲看到成本，對吧，因為我們提列了更高的 CO2 成本，但你還沒有看到 CBAM 的效益，我會這麼說。所以這當然應該會在第二季起開始反映出來。

Thank you. And my second question is, if you're able to give us some qualitative color on the European customer behavior, how receptive are they to the new pricing frameworks both CBAM and the upcoming safeguard? And are you worried about inventory levels in Europe? Or are you seeing any client retrenchment because of the Middle Eastern conflict? So any color you can give us on your customer profile in Europe today would be much appreciated.

謝謝。我的第二個問題是，若你能就歐洲客戶行為提供一些定性說明：他們對於新的定價架構（包括 CBAM 以及即將上路的保障措施）接受度如何？你們是否擔心歐洲的庫存水位？或者你們是否看到因中東衝突而出現任何客戶縮手？所以若能就你們目前在歐洲的客戶輪廓提供一些說明，將非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah. Well, I made some comments in my prepared opening remarks, right? We are seeing more activity. The order book is good. So when I compare where we were last year, I would say the order book is stronger.

是的。我在事先準備的開場致詞裡已經做了一些評論，對吧？我們看到活動增加。訂單簿狀況良好。所以如果我拿去年相比，我會說訂單簿更強。

We see customers trying to develop the relationships -- so that is all supportive, Alan. That's good. So -- and that's why, I mean, we feel, of course, confident to confirm the guidance that we discussed at the time of Q4 results, higher shipments in Europe year-on-year, right?

我們看到客戶正嘗試建立關係——所以這些都對我們有利，Alan。這很好。所以——也因此，我的意思是，我們當然有信心確認我們在第四季業績時所討論的指引：歐洲出貨量將年增，對吧？

And I would expect our second half actually to be stronger than the first half, which is, as you know, unusual. Typically, our second half is weaker. But because of everything that we are discussing here, I would expect shipments in the second half to be actually stronger.

而且我預期我們下半年其實會比上半年更強，這如你所知是不尋常的。通常我們下半年會比較弱。但基於我們在這裡討論的一切，我預期下半年的出貨量實際上會更強。

Yeah. So I think it's all moving in the right direction.

是的。所以我認為一切都朝著正確方向發展。

Great. Bastian, Deutsche Bank.

很好。接下來是德意志銀行的 Bastian。

Yeah, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. My first one is also a follow-up actually on maybe your guidance, particularly on the steel production side in Europe specifically, which was, I guess, very low in terms of production in Q1.

是的，午安，謝謝讓我提問。我的第一個問題也是追問，可能是關於你們的指引，特別是歐洲鋼鐵生產端，第一季的產量我想是相當低。

And you talked about the maintenance, but shipments were down quite a lot as well, which I guess one could say is a little bit surprising given the impact from CBAM we've seen already as well as maybe some withdrawal from imports.

你們談到維修保養，但出貨量也下滑不少；考量到我們已經看到 CBAM 的影響，以及可能有一些進口撤出，我想有人會覺得這有點令人意外。

So I'm wondering how far we will see a real catch-up in the second quarter driving very strong year-on-year growth and whether you would be able to even give a bit more detail on that, that would be great. That's my first question.

所以我想了解第二季會在多大程度上出現真正的追趕，從而帶動非常強勁的年增成長；如果你能提供更多細節就太好了。這是我的第一個問題。

Yeah. Sure, Bastian. Yes, you're right. So we are, of course -- and as we discussed in Q4, we had maintenance in some of our facilities, right? And we have just 1 or 2 days ago, restarted one of our furnaces in Poland.

好的。當然可以，Bastian。是的，你說得對。所以我們當然——如同我們在第四季所討論的，我們在部分設施進行了維修保養，對吧？而且就在一兩天前，我們已經重啟了波蘭的一座高爐。

And we continue to work on our furnace in France and Spain. So we're going to be in a position to bring back the capacity as and when we see the demand, right? And as a result, the furnace in Poland is already -- we are ramping up that as we speak. I mean inventories, and I have not really touched on it, so I should do it now. I mean we know that imports were quite elevated in Q4, right?

我們也持續在法國與西班牙的高爐上進行作業。因此，我們將能在看到需求時，適時把產能帶回來，對吧？因此，波蘭的高爐已經——我們正在如你所見地逐步拉升產能。至於庫存，我其實還沒談到，所以我現在應該說明一下。我們知道第四季進口量相當高，對吧？

We saw imports coming down in quarter one, right? But evidence suggests that imports, at least at the beginning of quarter two elevated. So you still have players to try, of course, to get materials here before the new TRQ starts from July 1.

我們看到第一季進口量下降，對吧？但跡象顯示，至少在第二季初期，進口量仍偏高。所以你仍然看到一些業者試圖——當然——在 7 月 1 日新的 TRQ 上路前把材料運進來。

Having said that, we don't believe that inventories are too high. I mean, of course, they are higher than, I would say, normal levels, but not so high. So our expectation is that the new TRQ comes into place, this inventory should normalize relatively quickly.

話雖如此，我們不認為庫存過高。我的意思是，當然它們比我所說的正常水位要高，但沒有高到那種程度。所以我們的預期是，新的 TRQ 一旦實施，這些庫存應該會相對快速地回到正常水位。

Okay. And in terms of what this means for, I guess, the overall cycle, I guess there are some players in the market, which do expect that imports in the second quarter will basically go up before they fade in the second half. Is this the view you do share as well?

了解。那就整體循環而言，我想市場上有些參與者預期第二季進口量基本上會上升，然後在下半年回落。這也是你們認同的看法嗎？

And I guess, what is your view maybe particularly also on the pricing side, prices have been very strong already. But is your view that rely comes third quarter, we will see further price dynamic most likely kicking in, in Europe?

另外，我想也請教你們對價格面的看法：價格已經非常強勁。但你們是否認為到了第三季，我們很可能會在歐洲看到進一步的價格動能開始發酵？

Or will it take longer to maybe digest and work through, I guess, inventory overhang, whatever disruptions we could see?

或者可能需要更長時間來消化並處理，例如庫存壓力、以及我們可能看到的任何干擾？

Well, Bastian, I mean, what we are seeing, I mean, we saw prices actually moving up during the quarter, right, actually accelerating from beginning of the Iran war, also in response, right, to cost pressures. So I think it's fair to say that imports in quarter two should still be high, right, as we discussed because just it's normal, right?

嗯，Bastian，我的意思是，我們所看到的是——我們看到價格在本季其實是走升的，對吧，而且自伊朗戰爭開始以來還加速上行，同時也是對成本壓力的反應，對吧？所以我認為可以合理地說，第二季進口量應該仍會偏高，對吧？如同我們討論的，因為這就是正常現象，對吧？

So players are trying to get the materials here before the new TRQ. But again, it's not ideal, of course. We're going to need to work through that. But we don't expect that to really be to take the market long to absorb that. And of course, on prices, as you know, we cannot comment, right? We can -- I can only refer you to what we are seeing. If you look at the index, it's right? I mean we have a nice -- not only prices increasing during the year, but it's spreads, right?

所以業者正試圖在新的 TRQ 之前把材料運進來。但再說一次，這當然不理想。我們需要把這些消化掉。但我們不預期市場需要很長時間才能吸收。至於價格，如你所知，我們不能評論，對吧？我們——我只能請你參考我們所看到的情況。如果你看指數，它是——對吧？我的意思是，我們看到一個不錯的——不僅是年內價格上升，還有價差（spreads），對吧？

So when you look at the spreads also evolving positively, also as a result of introduction of CBAM at the beginning of the year. I think we need to look at the European market. As we have always been saying, right, it is the combination of the two CBAM and TRQ that is very, very powerful here, right? And we have one piece, and we're going to have the second piece now from July 1.

因此，當你看到價差也在正向演變時，這也部分是因為年初導入了CBAM。我認為我們需要看看歐洲市場。正如我們一直在說的，CBAM與TRQ兩者的組合在這裡非常、非常有力，對吧？我們已經有了其中一塊拼圖，而第二塊將從7月1日起到位。

Okay. Great. Maybe a very quick one on India, which you didn't mention in your early second quarter indication. I guess we have seen decent performance actually in Q1. Prices also picked up, but then there is obviously the energy situation. So I guess, what is the trajectory for India into the second quarter?

好的。很好。也許很快問一下印度，你在先前對第二季的初步指引中沒有提到。我想我們在第一季其實看到不錯的表現。價格也回升了，但顯然還有能源情勢。所以我想問，印度進入第二季的走勢會是如何？

Yeah. It's also good. You're right. So because of the DRI, we are more exposed to gas in India. But as you know, I mean, we have -- we are fully hedged, Bastian.

是的。也很好。你說得對。因為DRI，我們在印度對天然氣的曝險更高。但如你所知，我們——我們已經完全避險了，Bastian。

So we don't expect cost pressure coming from gas in India. So we are fully hedged. And the price environment has also improved, which already benefited Q1, right? And we would expect also a good second quarter for our Indian operations.

因此我們不預期印度的成本壓力會來自天然氣。所以我們已經完全避險。而且價格環境也改善了，這已經讓第一季受益，對吧？我們也預期印度營運在第二季會有不錯的表現。

Reinhardt, Bank of America.

Reinhardt，美國銀行。

Hi, Daniel. Hi, Genuino. Thanks for taking my question.

嗨，Daniel。嗨，Genuino。謝謝你回答我的問題。

First one, maybe just we've spoken a lot about inventories, and it seems like it's creating a bit of an uncertain picture around when this domestic demand will kind of kick in. What are you seeing across the European steel industry in terms of capacity mobilization -- outside of the actions that you've taken, do you think that the European industry is ready for the challenge of producing that additional volume?

第一個問題，也許我們談了很多庫存，看起來它讓國內需求何時會真正啟動變得有點不確定。就歐洲鋼鐵產業而言，你看到的產能動員情況如何——撇開你們已採取的行動不談，你認為歐洲產業是否已準備好迎接生產額外產量的挑戰？

Well, Reinhardt, I'm not going to talk much about what the competition is doing, right? I think what we have been saying very consistently is that ArcelorMittal is in a good position, right, to take our market share of the reduced imports and we can do more, right?

嗯，Reinhardt，我不會多談競爭對手在做什麼，對吧？我認為我們一直非常一致地在說的是，ArcelorMittal處於有利位置，對吧？可以承接因進口減少而釋出的市占，而且我們還能做得更多，對吧？

So to the extent that others cannot, so then we're going to be in a good position as we talked about, we have a lot of flexibility here. So we have the finances that we can bring back. We have the possibility to bring back blast furnaces.

所以在其他人做不到的程度上，我們就會處於有利位置。正如我們談到的，我們在這裡有很大的彈性。我們有財務能力可以把產能拉回來。我們也有可能讓高爐重新投產。

We have more downstream capacity. So we're going to be in a good position here to make sure that the market is supplied that we don't have any shortages in the -- as a result of this.

我們有更多下游產能。因此我們會處於有利位置，確保市場得到供應，不會因此而出現任何短缺。

Understood. That's very clear. Just maybe a second question on the Dunkirk EAF investment. You're looking to do any kind of downstream additions there or to get any changes in your product mix maybe out of that capacity as you go through the capital allocation?

了解。非常清楚。第二個問題想問敦克爾克EAF投資。在資本配置的過程中，你們是否打算在那裡增加任何下游投資，或是藉由那個產能對產品組合做一些調整？

So can you repeat the question? I'm not sure that I got it.

你可以重複一下問題嗎？我不確定我是否聽懂了。

Yeah, sure sir. So as you're converting over to EAF, are you looking to add any downstream investment as well, any kind of finishing capacity as part of that project?

好的，當然，先生。也就是說，當你們轉換為EAF時，是否也打算增加任何下游投資，例如任何精整產能，把它作為該專案的一部分？

No, not really. We're going to be able to, of course and that's why the CapEx can be reduced to some extent because we're going to be able to still use some of the equipment there, right? And downstream will, of course, be intact.

不，並不是真的。當然我們將能夠——這也是為什麼資本支出可以在一定程度上降低，因為我們仍然能夠使用那裡的一些設備，對吧？而下游當然會保持完整。

We're going to be able to -- so basically, what you're changing is the upstream, right? So instead of the blast furnace and the converters, you're going to have the EAF, the ladle furnaces and then we're going to just follow the normal process of that plant.

我們將能夠——所以基本上，你改變的是上游，對吧？也就是把高爐和轉爐改為EAF、鋼包爐，然後我們就按照該廠的正常流程往下走。

So we should be in a position to achieve the same mix, which [non-characters] as you know, it's quite high. We have a very quality high order book there, which we, of course, it's very important for us to protect. And that's exactly the idea here that we should be in a position to produce the same grades as we can today with the blast furnace.

因此我們應該能夠達到相同的產品組合，[non-characters] 如你所知，這個比例相當高。我們那裡有非常高品質的高階訂單簿，當然，對我們而言保護它非常重要。而這正是這個構想的核心：我們應該能夠生產與今天使用高爐相同的鋼種等級。

Boris, Kepler Cheuvreux.

Boris，Kepler Cheuvreux。

Hi, Genuino.

嗨，Genuino。

Thank you for taking my question. The first question is about the new capacity restarts at both in France and Dabrowa in Poland and plus EAF capacity in Spain. How much capacity are you bringing back with those new furnaces?

謝謝你回答我的問題。第一個問題是關於法國與波蘭Dabrowa兩地的新產能重啟，以及西班牙的EAF產能。透過這些新爐子，你們將恢復多少產能？

And the second question would be on North America. Are you still facing the same headwind about the tariffs, Section 232? And can you share with us the expectations you might have for the coming renegotiation of USMCA agreement?

第二個問題是關於北美。你們是否仍面臨同樣的逆風，也就是關稅、232條款？另外，你能否分享你們對即將到來的USMCA協議重新談判的預期？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah. So we have a couple of questions there. So the first one on the capacity in Europe. So all these furnaces, they are 2-plus million tonnes. So they are relatively large-sized furnaces.

是的。這裡有幾個問題。先談第一個，歐洲的產能。這些爐子每座都是200萬噸以上。所以它們是相對大型的爐子。

As I mentioned before, so we started global already, and we are getting ready in force and also in Spain, right? And we'll, of course, announce when we are ready to bring these furnaces back up, right? But we're just doing all the work so that we are in a position to restart them when we need them, right?

如我之前提到的，我們已經在全球啟動了，我們也在法國以及西班牙做準備，對吧？當然，當我們準備好讓這些爐子重新啟動時，我們會公告，對吧？但我們正在做所有工作，確保在需要時能夠重啟它們，對吧？

In North America, look, I mean, the USMCA, I mean, it's early days. I think we have to wait to see really how it starts, right? It's probably wouldn't be right for me to speculate. The only thing I can say is that we hope that the outcome will be one that we feel that we can operate as a single block, right?

至於北美，USMCA——現在還算早期。我認為我們必須等待，看看它實際上如何展開，對吧？我推測可能不太合適。我唯一能說的是，我們希望結果會是讓我們覺得可以作為一個單一整體來運作，對吧？

I think for us, for our business, what would be ideal is that we have Mexico, we have Canada, putting the same barriers against the imports that we have similar protection as we have in the United States, right? And then the material then can flow. So that's what I would say. I think we have to wait there, Boris.

我認為對我們、對我們的業務而言，最理想的是墨西哥、加拿大對進口設置與美國相同的障礙，也就是我們能獲得與美國類似的保護，對吧？然後材料就可以流通。這就是我會說的。我想我們得再等等，Boris。

Okay. And just the current headwind that we still something like $150 million per quarter due to that.

好的。那目前的逆風是否仍然大約是每季1.5億美元，因為那個因素所致？

Yes, there is no change there. The headwinds remain basically the same, Boris.

是的，那裡沒有任何變化。逆風基本上仍然一樣，Boris。

Great. Tristan, BNP Paribas.

很好。Tristan，法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）。

I have two questions. The first one is a question on North America and Section 232. We've seen recently that there could be some relief for Mexican, Canadian producer to build new capacity in the US to supply the auto market. Do you believe this could be retroactively applied to your first Calvert EAF?

我有兩個問題。第一個問題是關於北美與《232條款》。我們最近看到，可能會對墨西哥、加拿大的生產商在美國新建產能以供應汽車市場提供一些紓困。你認為這可能會追溯適用於你們第一座 Calvert 電弧爐（EAF）嗎？

And if not, is that a consideration for the potential second one?

如果不會，這是否會成為潛在第二座的考量？

Yeah, Tristan. So I think it's important to be clear, right? So that today, we are not receiving any tariff relief, right? And all imports into the US, including from Canada and Mexico continue to pay Section 232, 50% tariffs. I think you know our position on tariffs, which is very consistent.

是的，Tristan。所以我認為重要的是要講清楚，對吧？就目前而言，我們沒有收到任何關稅減免，對吧？所有進口到美國的產品，包括來自加拿大與墨西哥的，仍需支付《232條款》50%的關稅。我想你也知道我們對關稅的立場，一直都非常一致。

For over 20 years, we have been arguing that the global steel industry has been suffering from overcapacity and continuously pushing for fair trade, whether it is in the US, Brazil, Europe, Canada or other parts of the world.

二十多年來，我們一直主張全球鋼鐵產業正受產能過剩所苦，並持續推動公平貿易，不論是在美國、巴西、歐洲、加拿大或世界其他地區。

So we do fully support the Section 232. But we also support being able to operate, as I was saying before, as one regional market across North America and that there are no tariffs on steel that is melted and put in Canada and Mexico. And as you know, we have been seriously considering the second EAF in Calvert as the US is an attractive market to make steel.

因此我們完全支持《232條款》。但我們也支持能夠如我先前所說，把北美作為一個區域市場來運作，且對於在加拿大與墨西哥熔煉並澆鑄的鋼材不課徵關稅。而且如你所知，我們一直在認真考慮在 Calvert 建設第二座電弧爐（EAF），因為美國是一個具吸引力的鋼鐵生產市場。

And in terms of potential tariff release, as you know, tax has been now published, designed to stimulate additional investments in the US, and we are analyzing it. So it's a lot of details has now been published, and we're just going through that. And the answer is not really a clear yes. We still need to study it. And I just want to also just take the opportunity as a lot has been written on this topic.

至於潛在的關稅減免，如你所知，現在已公布了相關稅務措施，旨在刺激在美國的額外投資，我們正在分析。所以現在公布了很多細節，我們正在逐一檢視。答案並不是很明確的「是」。我們仍需要研究。我也想藉此機會補充一下，因為關於這個主題外界已經寫了很多。

I would actually like to also take the opportunity to confirm that we are contributing steel to the White House Ballroom. So approximately 600 tonnes have been delivered to date. As you know, we have a track record of both supplying strong high-quality steels to US customers and donating steel to iconic buildings and projects around the world that showcase its strength and flexibility.

我也想藉此機會確認，我們正在為白宮宴會廳提供鋼材。截至目前約已交付600噸。如你所知，我們一向既為美國客戶供應堅固且高品質的鋼材，也曾向全球具代表性的建築與專案捐贈鋼材，以展示其強度與可塑性。

Just to give an example, when the Freedom Tower was one of the strongest steel in the world, they came to our facilities. So we are pleased to add the White House to the list of iconic American buildings where our steel will stand strong for years in this country. So we just need to wait a bit more. We're going to go through the details, and then we're going to be in a position to update everyone.

舉例來說，當自由塔需要世界上最強的鋼材之一時，他們就來到我們的工廠。因此，我們很高興把白宮也加入這份美國代表性建築名單，未來多年我們的鋼材都將在這個國家堅固屹立。所以我們還需要再等一下。我們會把細節看完，然後就能向大家更新。

Okay. No, that's clear, but that's a potential thing to consider. My second question is on the green steel economics in Europe. I was a bit surprised to see that you were only targeting $200 million of EBITDA for your three EAF projects.

好的。不，這很清楚，但這是一個可能需要考慮的事項。我的第二個問題是關於歐洲綠色鋼鐵的經濟性。我有點驚訝看到你們對三個電弧爐（EAF）專案的 EBITDA 目標只有2億美元。

Because if I understood correctly, Sestao in Spain is potentially adding another 1 million tonne of new volumes. Gijon is replacing 1 million tonne and Dunkirk is replacing 2 million tonnes. So that's close to 4 million tonnes of EAF steel.

因為如果我理解正確，西班牙 Sestao 可能會新增約100萬噸的新產量。Gijon 是替換100萬噸，而敦克爾克（Dunkirk）是替換200萬噸。所以合計接近400萬噸的電弧爐鋼。

And it does not look like there are much of productivity gains or green steel premiums baked into that. So maybe if you could discuss a little bit the high-level assumptions you're making and perhaps the delta is on the cost base and if you expect a big increase there from moving from BF to EF.

而且看起來並沒有把太多生產力提升或綠色鋼鐵溢價納入其中。所以也許你可以談談你們所採用的高層次假設，以及差異可能是在成本基礎上；另外，從高爐（BF）轉到電爐（EF）後，你們是否預期成本會大幅上升。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah. Well, Tristan, there are a couple of points there, right? I think it is important to appreciate that we are talking about -- we are just giving you the incremental EBITDA, right? So it's incremental to what we are adding today. So -- and as you know, the idea here is that we're going to be except for Sestao, where we are really increasing capacity. In Dunkirk, we're going to be replacing one furnace.

是的。嗯，Tristan，這裡有幾點，對吧？我認為重要的是要理解，我們談的是——我們只是提供增量 EBITDA，對吧？也就是相對於我們目前所做的新增部分。所以——而且如你所知，這裡的想法是，除了 Sestao 我們確實在擴增產能之外，在敦克爾克，我們將替換一座高爐。

So we are not really looking to increase capacity. So what you have is really what is incremental. And then I think it's also important to take into account the amount of the investments, right? And that's why we were so focused as a company to make sure that we have the right conditions, right, so that we can justify this investment. That's why the focus on making sure that we have visibility in terms of CBAM, visibility in terms of imports [ERQ].

因此我們並不是要真正增加產能。所以你看到的其實就是增量部分。另外我認為也要把投資金額納入考量，對吧？這也是為什麼我們公司非常專注於確保具備正確的條件，對吧？以便我們能夠合理化這項投資。因此我們聚焦於確保在 CBAM 方面有可見度、在進口方面有可見度[ERQ]。

We have visibility in terms of our energy contract, which we now have for this project, as you know. So I would encourage you also to look at what is the net amount of this CapEx, right? And then in the case of Dunkirk, not only you're going to have the 50% support through the white certificates, but we're going to also be in a position to avoid the reline of the furnace that we're going to be replacing.

我們在能源合約方面也有可見度，而如你所知，我們現在已為這個專案取得能源合約。所以我也建議你看看這些資本支出（CapEx）的淨額，對吧？此外，就敦克爾克而言，你不僅會透過白色證書獲得50%的支持，我們也能避免對將被替換的高爐進行重新砌襯（reline）。

So that's why in the end, we feel that we're going to be in a position to earn a return on our investment. And when it comes to the assumptions, we don't want to be too specific about it, Tristan. As you can imagine, this is also commercially sensitive.

因此最終我們認為，我們將能夠在投資上取得回報。至於假設條件，我們不想講得太具體，Tristan。如你所想像，這在商業上也相當敏感。

We have our teams going out and marketing already for the future of this contracts, the green steel. I mean, as you know, for some time, at least we believe that this will be limited, right? And I think this is -- it's -- our teams are out there. So we don't want to be talking too much about the assumptions.

我們的團隊已經在外面為未來的合約、綠色鋼鐵進行行銷。我的意思是，如你所知，一段時間以來，至少我們認為這會是有限的，對吧？而我想這是——我們的團隊正在外面推進。所以我們不想對這些假設談得太多。

Great. Ephrem, Citi.

很好。Ephrem，花旗（Citi）。

I'm just trying to understand the Page 12, AMNS future growth optionality figures. There's 15 million tonnes from Hazira, 8 million tonnes from Andhra, which gives you 23. My understanding was that Hazira was after 15, there is an optionality of Phase 2a to 18 and then Phase 2b to 24.

我只是想理解第12頁，AMNS 未來成長選擇權（optionalities）的數字。Hazira 有1,500萬噸，Andhra 有800萬噸，加起來是2,300萬噸。我的理解是 Hazira 在達到1,500萬噸之後，還有第二階段2a可選擇到1,800萬噸，然後第二階段2b到2,400萬噸。

And then obviously, the Greenfield in Andhra is sort of separate. So is the Phase 2, being delayed? Is that how we should sort of interpret that in favor of pushing ahead with the Greenfield in Andhra in order to balance the balance sheet and skill sets?

然後很明顯，Andhra 的綠地（Greenfield）專案是另外一個獨立項目。所以第二階段是否被延後了？我們是否應該把這解讀為：為了平衡資產負債表與技能配置，而優先推進 Andhra 的綠地專案？

I think you're right. I mean, of course, we have to phase it, right? And absolutely right. So we have in front of us the two options. And it continues to be an option for us, right, to take Hazira further, and that will most likely happen over time as well.

我想你說得對。我的意思是，當然，我們必須分階段推進，對吧？而且你說得完全正確。所以我們面前有兩個選項。而且對我們而言，進一步推進 Hazira 仍然是一個選項，這也很可能會隨著時間推移而發生。

But right now, yeah, that's the sequencing that we see, right, and which is to start Andhra. And yes, and Hazira will remain an option for us as well as after we complete this first phase in Andhra, we can go also for another phase, right? So the 40 million tonnes vision for the Indian operations remain intact.

但就目前而言，是的，這就是我們看到的先後順序，也就是先啟動 Andhra。而且是的，Hazira 也仍將是我們的一個選項；在我們完成 Andhra 的第一階段之後，我們也可以再推進另一個階段，對吧？因此，印度營運 4,000 萬噸的願景仍然不變。

Thanks. And then you've said that obviously, your current energy situation is manageable, hedging and support of policies framework for insulates margins. Can you give us a sense of time line for that in terms of how long -- because, I mean, energy prices could remain high for 6 months, 12 months, 2 years.

謝謝。另外你提到，顯然你們目前的能源情勢是可控的，透過避險以及政策框架的支持來隔離利潤率的影響。你能否就時間軸給我們一些概念，也就是能維持多久——因為我的意思是，能源價格可能會在 6 個月、12 個月、2 年都維持在高位。

So if they remain for how long would your hedging policies cover it? And at what point do you think you and the industry will have to start thinking about energy surcharges in your steel?

所以如果它們維持高位，你們的避險政策可以覆蓋多久？以及在什麼時間點，你認為你們和整個產業將不得不開始考慮在鋼材中加收能源附加費？

Yeah. Well, specifically in India, we are -- our program goes -- it's a multiyear program, Ephrem. So I think we are in a good place there. So it's a multiyear. And even in Europe for gas, we will also have a multiyear plan program.

是的。嗯，特別是在印度，我們的方案是——這是一個多年期方案，Ephrem。所以我認為我們在這方面處於不錯的位置。所以它是多年期的。而且即使在歐洲，就天然氣而言，我們也會有一個多年期的計畫方案。

So I think we are -- as I said, I think we are in a good place.

所以我認為我們——如我所說，我認為我們處於一個不錯的位置。

Thank you. Cole, Jefferies.

謝謝。Cole，Jefferies。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I'd just like a little bit of color on the metals on iron ore, just the ramp-up on volumes and how you see that into the second quarter? Just any color you can provide? And then I'd also just like to follow up on imports into Europe ahead of the trade barriers. I mean we've seen a lot of logistics disruptions globally.

下午好。謝謝讓我提問。我想請你們就金屬業務中的鐵礦石提供一些補充說明，特別是產量爬坡的進度，以及你們如何看待進入第二季的情況？任何你能提供的補充都可以。另外我也想追問一下，在貿易壁壘生效前歐洲的進口情況。我的意思是，我們已經看到全球物流出現很多中斷。

Do you think that there's a possibility that everyone is expecting a lot of imports into Europe, but considering the supply chains, we just don't see them delivered in time or customers potentially pull back on some of those orders just considering they might not meet the delivery dates.

你是否認為有可能大家都預期會有大量進口進入歐洲，但考量到供應鏈狀況，我們可能看不到它們及時交付，或者客戶可能會撤回部分訂單，因為擔心無法符合交期。

Just any thoughts on that?

對此你有什麼看法？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah. So maybe I'll take this one, Daniel, and then maybe you can comment on iron ore. So you're right. So I think what we are seeing, of course, is at this point in time, what we are seeing is more a cost issue, right? We are seeing freight rates going up.

是的。所以也許我先回答這題，Daniel，然後你可以評論一下鐵礦石。你說得對。所以我認為我們目前看到的，當然，在這個時間點，我們看到的更多是成本問題，對吧？我們看到運費在上升。

And of course, some of the journey is also taking longer because of the conflict. But it's not something that we believe should be delaying the arrival of the materials. So I think that's why as we discussed, we feel that the second quarter should still end up with elevated levels of imports, right?

當然，由於衝突，有些航程也變得更長。但我們不認為這會延遲材料的到港。所以我想這就是為什麼如我們所討論的，我們認為第二季最終仍會出現較高水準的進口，對吧？

And as a final quarter and then from Q3 onwards, the new TRQ comes into play. And I would say that this window is now closed, right, as we are here almost the beginning of May, the window to imports, they are basically under the existing safeguards regime are getting close to an end.

而且作為最後一個季度，從第三季開始，新的 TRQ 就會生效。我會說這個窗口現在已經關閉了，對吧？因為我們現在幾乎是 5 月初了，進口的窗口——基本上在現行保障措施制度下——已接近結束。

And the fact that we don't have yet the quotas for the new TRQ split by country, I mean, it makes it even a little bit harder for imports, right? So that's what we are seeing.

而且我們尚未拿到按國家拆分的新 TRQ 配額，這也讓進口變得更困難一些，對吧？所以這就是我們看到的情況。

Dan, you want to talk about the iron ore?

Dan，你想談談鐵礦石嗎？

Yeah. Sorry, Cole, would you mind just repeating that question?

是的。抱歉，Cole，你介意把問題再重複一次嗎？

Just a little bit of color on the iron ore production that you're expecting into 2Q and any of the phasing through the year, just so we can think about that in the model?

就是想請你們就第二季預期的鐵礦石產量，以及全年各季度的節奏安排提供一些補充，讓我們可以在模型裡做推估。

Yeah, sure. So thank you. So we did have obviously a good start to the year in Liberia, another record production shipment quarter. So I think as we -- and that will just continue over the next three quarters. So we've signaled in our initial guidance at the beginning of the year that we expect to be at full capacity in the second half and to achieve at least 80 million tonnes of shipments.

好的，當然。謝謝。所以我們在賴比瑞亞年初確實有一個良好的開局，出貨量再創紀錄的一個季度。所以我認為，隨著我們——這種表現將在接下來三個季度持續。我們在年初的初始指引中已經表示，我們預期在下半年達到滿產，並實現至少 8,000 萬噸的出貨量。

So yeah, I would just be -- that's how we would be factoring it into the model. Some further improvement in the second quarter. I expect that we will navigate the rainy season through Q3. We continue to improve on our ability to navigate that. And then I would expect we should finish with a strong fourth quarter performance.

所以，是的，我們會以這樣的方式把它納入模型。第二季會有一些進一步改善。我預期我們將在第三季度過雨季。我們也持續提升我們應對雨季的能力。然後我預期第四季應該會以強勁的表現收尾。

And then maybe just following up on iron ore. You've been very clear that the energy situation is manageable across the rest of the business. But are there any things we should be thinking about in iron ore costs just for diesel, et cetera, on the mining side?

另外再追問一下鐵礦石。你們已經非常清楚地表示，能源情勢在其他業務範圍內是可控的。但在鐵礦石這邊，礦山端的柴油等成本，有沒有什麼是我們需要考量的？

I think the only thing I would call out, Cole, is freight, right? I think the profitability of mining in Q2 will depend, of course, much more, of course, where prices finally land and freight, right? So oil will have an impact as well. But based on what I see today, I would be more focused on prices and freight.

Cole，我認為唯一要特別指出的是運費，對吧？我認為第二季礦業的獲利能力，當然更取決於價格最終落點以及運費，對吧？所以油價也會有影響。但就我今天看到的情況而言，我會更關注價格與運費。

Thank you. Andy, UBS.

謝謝。Andy，UBS。

I've got a few follow-ups to previous questions. Just on that potential tariff carve-out in North America. My understanding is it's based upon volumes sold just into the auto sector. So if you ship slabs from Mexico into Calvert, would you -- is it your understanding you potentially get some relief on those if they then be sold into auto? That's the first one. I've got a couple of ones to follow.

我有幾個針對先前問題的追問。先談北美可能的關稅豁免。我的理解是，它是以僅銷往汽車產業的銷售量為基礎。所以如果你們把鋼胚從墨西哥運到 Calvert，你們的理解是——如果之後賣到汽車產業——你們可能會在這些量上獲得一些減免嗎？這是第一個問題。我還有幾個要接著問。

Andy, as I said, I mean, we just got all these details, right? And the teams are busy going through that. So I don't want to anticipate the analysis. If you don't mind, I think we will address that with you next quarter. I'm sure we'll have more color and information to provide on that.

Andy，如我所說，我的意思是，我們才剛拿到所有這些細節，對吧？團隊正在忙著逐一研讀。所以我不想預先推論分析結果。如果你不介意的話，我想我們下個季度再跟你回覆這個問題。我相信到時我們會有更多補充說明與資訊可以提供。

Yeah. Okay. No worries. And just a couple of modeling ones. On the Ukraine contribution, I mean, that was obviously a drag in the first quarter. Can you quantify that on EBITDA? And do you see anything changing into 2Q?

是的。好的。沒問題。再問幾個建模方面的問題。關於烏克蘭的貢獻，我的意思是，這在第一季顯然是個拖累。你能量化一下對 EBITDA 的影響嗎？你覺得第二季會有任何變化嗎？

Yeah, it was -- Q1 was a challenging quarter for Ukraine, right? So energy prices, in particular, really very, very high. So as we discussed before, so Ukraine, they have been managing relatively well, right? So in the whole of 2025, as we discussed, at EBITDA level, they managed to be basically neutral, still free cash negative, of course, because of CapEx.

是的——第一季對烏克蘭來說是個具挑戰性的季度，對吧？所以能源價格，尤其是，真的非常非常高。所以如同我們之前討論過的，烏克蘭一直管理得相對不錯，對吧？所以在整個 2025 年，如同我們討論的，在 EBITDA 層面他們基本上做到持平，當然自由現金流仍為負，因為有資本支出（CapEx）。

Q1 EBITDA was negative as a result of the high energy costs. Energy has come down, so which is good news. So we do expect to do better in the second quarter, right? But as we know, the situation remains very challenging. But at least on that front, we expect to do better, and that has been really one of the key drivers of the result.

第一季 EBITDA 因高能源成本而為負。能源價格已經下來了，這是好消息。所以我們確實預期第二季會做得更好，對吧？但如我們所知，情勢仍然非常具挑戰性。但至少在這方面，我們預期會改善，而這確實一直是業績結果的關鍵驅動因素之一。

Okay. That's clear. And just finally on Mexico, the operating issues that you had last year, there was a little bit of overspill into 1Q. Like how material was that? I think you -- I think maybe in the fourth quarter, you called out 65 million hits. I mean what was the equivalent number in 1Q? Was it material?

好的。很清楚。最後再問一下墨西哥，去年你們遇到的營運問題，有一點延續到第一季。那有多重大？我記得你——我想你可能在第四季提到有 6,500 萬的衝擊。那第一季相當的數字是多少？有很重大嗎？

Yeah. So the evolution in Mexico is very good, right? We started the blast furnace, which is producing long products. So we were not yet at full capacity in Q1 in long. So we're going to be at full capacity in quarter two.

是的。所以墨西哥的進展非常好，對吧？我們啟動了高爐，該高爐生產長材。所以第一季我們在長材方面尚未達到滿載產能。所以我們會在第二季達到滿載。

So I would expect our production and shipments in North America to continue to improve as we move forward, right? But it's no longer, of course, the same magnitude that we had in prior quarters. So I think it's a very good evolution.

所以我預期，隨著我們往前推進，我們在北美的產量與出貨會持續改善，對吧？但當然，已不再是前幾季那種同等幅度的影響。所以我認為這是非常好的進展。

As we discussed at the time of Q4, you see profitability in North America almost doubling, and we should continue to see progress going forward in the second quarter. But production is now up and running, and it's only now the full capacity of this furnace that you should see in quarter two.

如同我們在第四季時討論的，你會看到北美的獲利能力幾乎翻倍，而我們在第二季也應該會持續看到進展。但目前產線已經啟動運轉，而你應該會在第二季才看到這座高爐的滿載產能。

Timna, Wells Fargo.

Timna，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）。

I wanted to actually double-click as the kids say these days on North America just a bit more, if I could. I think we obviously, as you pointed out in the last response, seen a nice benefit. It was the biggest contributor to Q1 over Q4 from rising prices. You have some locked up in annual contracts.

如果可以的話，我想就像現在孩子們說的那樣，對北美再「深入看一下」多一點。我想很明顯地，如你在上一個回答中指出的，我們看到不錯的受益。在第一季相較第四季的改善中，漲價是最大的貢獻來源。你們有一部分是鎖在年度合約裡。

Can you talk to us about how auto annual contracts fleshed out a bit or give us high level color on that? And then also, do you think that you could see the same order of magnitude in the US into Q2 given the pace of price increases? And then also I wanted some more color on how Calvert was ramping up?

你能談談汽車年度合約的進展，或給我們一些高層次的說明嗎？另外，考量美國價格上漲的速度，你覺得第二季在美國能看到同等量級的表現嗎？還有我也想多了解一下 Calvert 的爬坡進度？

Yeah. So automotive, I mean, as you know, in US, our contracts, they are really the negotiations happen throughout the year. It's a little bit more spread out compared to Europe. In Europe, we have a concentration really at the beginning of the year. In US, it's more, I would say, more like 30% Q1, 30% from quarter two and then the rest is 25% is Q3.

是的。所以汽車方面，你也知道，在美國，我們的合約談判其實是全年進行的。相較於歐洲，分布得更分散一些。在歐洲，我們的談判比較集中在年初。在美國，我會說大概是第一季 30%、第二季 30%，然後剩下的 25% 在第三季。

And so I think we are doing well. And as you know, we don't really comment so much on the outcome of these negotiations. But I have to say that they are going in line with our expectations. It's good. The ramp-up at Calvert, the EAF is progressing.

所以我認為我們做得不錯。而且如你所知，我們通常不太評論這些談判的結果。但我必須說，進展符合我們的預期。很好。Calvert 的爬坡方面，電弧爐（EAF）正在推進。

So in quarter 1, we were a little bit running above already 20%, 25%, and we are progressing. We believe that by the end of quarter 2, we should be at much higher levels. And we remain optimistic that we're going to be getting close to ending this ramp-up phase by the end of this year, Timna.

所以在第一季，我們已經略高於 20%、25% 的運轉水準，並且正在持續提升。我們相信到第二季末，我們應該會達到更高的水準。而且我們仍然樂觀，到了今年年底，我們將接近結束這段爬坡期，Timna。

Go ahead, Timna.

請繼續，Timna。

No, I just wanted to ask about if you would be able to quantify the extent of the price increase in Q1 over Q4, if that could be sustained given recent price strength continuing into Q2?

沒有，我只是想問，你們是否能量化第一季相較第四季的漲價幅度，以及在近期價格強勢延續到第二季的情況下，這是否能維持？

Yeah. Look, we're not going to be quantifying that, but I mean, I think you know very well how prices have moved up in the US I mean they continue to rise, and you should see that reflect in our results. We talked about automotive, the annual contracts and how much is resetting, right? So yeah.

是的。你看，我們不會去量化那個數字，但我想你很清楚美國價格是怎麼上來的——而且它們還在繼續上漲，你應該會看到這反映在我們的業績上。我們也談到汽車、年度合約以及有多少會重新定價，對吧？所以，是的。

Okay. And one further one, if I could, please. We're hearing a bit about switching away from aluminum to steel. In the US, of course, it's been a more extreme change in prices between the two. But even in Europe, to the extent that the BYDs are getting built and have more steel amount in them versus aluminum.

好的。如果可以的話，我再追問一個。我們聽到一些從鋁轉向鋼的趨勢。在美國，當然兩者之間的價格變動更為極端。但即使在歐洲，若比亞迪（BYD）在當地生產，且其用鋼量相對鋁更高。

So it would be great to get any observations that you're seeing on switching away from aluminum to steel and automotive things.

所以如果你能分享任何你們觀察到的、從鋁轉向鋼的情況，以及汽車端的相關動態，會很有幫助。

Yeah. So when we look at -- I think you're right. I think this is -- to be honest, it has been at least now less of an issue. We continue to be very focused on that, showing the benefits of steel to our customers. I think we have been very successful there, Timna, as you know.

是的。所以當我們來看——我想你說得對。老實說，至少目前這已經比較不是一個問題。我們仍然非常專注在這件事上，向客戶展示鋼材的優勢。我想我們在這方面非常成功，Timna，如你所知。

So I think we continue to make improvements there. So it's not something that I would highlight to you as a big concern that we have at this point, right? But of course, we remain very focused on R&D, making sure that we have the right grades, we achieve what customers want. So we have successes. And so when we look at the level of intensity, steel intensity on average, we see relatively stability.

所以我認為我們會持續在這方面改進。因此這不是我此刻會特別強調、作為我們重大疑慮的事情，對吧？但當然，我們仍然非常專注於研發（R&D），確保我們有正確的鋼種等級，達成客戶想要的要求。所以我們有一些成功案例。因此當我們看平均的用鋼強度（steel intensity）水準時，我們看到相對穩定。

Tom, Barclays.

Tom，巴克萊（Barclays）。

Yeah, hey, thanks very much. Just one quick follow-up for me, just on Ukraine, you talked about obviously high energy costs having an impact in Q1. Are you seeing anything from CBAM impacting Ukraine? I guess one of your Ukrainian peers has called out CBAM as being quite a big disruptor for Ukrainian steel going into Europe. I think it's not exempt at the moment. There's been a few articles saying maybe some order cancellations.

是的，嗨，非常感謝。我這邊只有一個很快的追問，關於烏克蘭，你提到第一季顯然是高能源成本造成影響。你們有看到 CBAM 對烏克蘭造成任何影響嗎？我想你們的一家烏克蘭同業提到 CBAM 對烏克蘭鋼材出口到歐洲是相當大的干擾因素。我認為目前並沒有豁免。也有一些文章提到可能出現一些訂單取消。

Yeah, are you seeing any kind of impact there?

是的，你們有看到那邊有任何影響嗎？

Yeah. I think there was the expectation that Ukraine will be exempted, right? And they are not. And we believe that is right. There shouldn't be exemptions, right?

是的。我想原本大家預期烏克蘭會被豁免，對吧？但他們並沒有被豁免。而我們認為這是正確的。不應該有豁免，對吧？

At the same time, prices are increasing in Europe. So if you have the right cost base, of course, then you should be competitive. In our business, of course, we are focused in Ukraine on the domestic market, right, and also selling pig to different parts of the group. There's good demand for pig, which we continue to sell.

同時，歐洲的價格正在上升。所以如果你的成本基礎正確，當然你就應該具備競爭力。在我們的業務中，當然，我們在烏克蘭主要聚焦於國內市場，對吧，同時也把生豬銷售到集團的不同地區。生豬需求良好，我們也持續在銷售。

Sorry, I didn't quite catch that. Did you say it shouldn't be or it should be exempt from CBAM?

抱歉，我沒有完全聽清楚。你是說不應該，還是應該豁免 CBAM？

It shouldn't be an exemption.

不應該豁免。

Shouldn't. Okay. So you're focusing more on the domestic market. And you would say there was some kind of earnings impact that I guess, persists into Q2 if an exemption doesn't come through. Then just second question, just on sort of buyback thoughts really.

不應該。好的。所以你們更專注於國內市場。而你會說如果豁免沒有落實，那麼我猜會有某種獲利影響，並延續到第二季。那第二個問題是，關於回購方面的想法。

I mean I know your capital allocation policy hasn't changed. We haven't seen any buybacks for nearly a year now. If I look at your free cash over the last 12 months, it is positive. And I guess you're talking about earnings ramping up through the rest of the year. Is that sort of back on the cards potentially to restart that buyback program?

我的意思是，我知道你們的資本配置政策沒有改變。我們已經將近一年沒有看到任何回購了。如果我看你們過去 12 個月的自由現金流，是正的。而且我想你們也在談今年剩餘時間獲利會逐步提升。那是否有可能把重啟回購計畫重新提上日程？

Well, I think you're right. So you know our policy, right? And we had, by the way, in Q1, our first quarterly dividend which was paid. We remain very optimistic that we're going to be free cash flow positive this year. And then the policy will kick in.

嗯，我想你說得對。所以你知道我們的政策，對吧？順帶一提，我們在第一季支付了第一筆季度股利。我們仍然非常樂觀，認為今年會是自由現金流為正。然後政策就會啟動。

And based on the visibility that I have today, I see no reason why we would not go above the minimum 50% as we have been doing in the last couple of years. And if I can remind everyone, the policies has been really great. I mean we bought more than 38% of our stock. And I think we are close to restart that.

以我今天所掌握的能見度來看，我看不出我們有任何理由不會像過去幾年那樣，高於最低的 50%。如果我提醒大家，這個政策一直都非常好。我們回購了超過 38% 的股票。而我認為我們已接近重啟。

Okay. Great. And sorry, you just said I'm so optimistic free cash flow positive this year, then the policy will kick in. Does that mean the policy only kicks in once you sort of see the full year numbers in? Or is it more dynamic than that if you have visibility, you could start sooner?

好的。很好。抱歉，你剛剛說你非常樂觀今年自由現金流為正，然後政策就會啟動。這是否表示政策只有在你們看到全年數字出來之後才會啟動？還是說如果你們有能見度，它其實更具動態性、可以更早開始？

Yeah. I mean it is more dynamic.

是的。我的意思是，它更具動態性。

Great. [Max, ODDO].

很好。[Max，ODDO]。

So first question is you published last week a sustainability report where you cut your carbon emissions objective to minus 10% from minus 30% previously by 2030. I think the new objective is very dependent actually on being delivered on time in 2030. So my question is what would be, in your view, a more realistic time line for the 30% reduction?

第一個問題是，你們上週發布了一份永續報告，將 2030 年的碳排放目標從先前的 -30% 下修到 -10%。我認為新的目標其實非常依賴在 2030 年準時交付。所以我的問題是，以你們的看法，-30% 減排更現實的時間表會是什麼？

Is it the mid-30s, late 30s, even beyond? And how should we think about the sequencing of the next EAF projects in Europe? Are you waiting for Gijon to be delivered and ramped up before potentially launching investments? Or will it come perhaps even later?

會是在 2030 年代中期、後期，甚至更晚嗎？另外，我們應該如何看待歐洲下一批 EAF 專案的推進順序？你們是否會等到希洪（Gijon）交付並爬坡完成後，才可能啟動投資？還是可能更晚才會進行？

You want to start with this one, Daniel?

Daniel，你要先回答這題嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, Genuino. So I think you're right to observe the change to our 2030 target. We well flagged that, I think, in recent reports and communications. What's, I think, important to take away is that, that 2030 target is based on the announced projects.

好的。謝謝，Genuino。我想你觀察到我們 2030 目標的變更是正確的。我想我們在近期的報告與溝通中已經清楚提示過。我認為重要的是，2030 的目標是以已公告的專案為基礎。

So it's a number that we are confident we can achieve and that's why we updated it. In terms of the timing of the next EAF projects, I think if you look at our communications on our messaging, we've also been quite clear that our EAF projects are going to be sequential. So we don't expect significant overlap on any of our blast furnace to EAF project.

所以這是一個我們有信心能達成的數字，因此我們更新了它。至於下一批 EAF 專案的時程，我想如果你看我們的對外溝通與訊息，我們也很清楚表示 EAF 專案會採取依序推進。因此，我們不預期任何高爐轉 EAF 的專案之間會有顯著重疊。

So the focus right now is completing Gijon. We've just announced Dunkirk, and that will occupy us for the medium term. And then the intention and time is to obviously communicate on what the project that will then follow will be. So let's really focus on getting a smooth start to Dunkirk at this stage, and then we will update on the next project in due course.

所以目前的重點是完成希洪（Gijon）。我們剛宣布了敦克爾克（Dunkirk），而這將在中期占用我們的資源。接著，我們的意圖與時點當然是會溝通下一個接續的專案。所以現階段先專注於讓敦克爾克順利啟動，之後我們會在適當時機更新下一個專案。

Okay. And just the second and last one is about the German stimulus plan. So expectations in recent weeks have come down actually amid the red tape, other priorities perhaps an infra for the new German government. So what's your latest view on the topic?

好的。第二個也是最後一個問題是關於德國的刺激方案。最近幾週，由於官僚程序、以及新一屆德國政府可能有其他優先事項（例如基礎建設），市場預期其實有所下修。所以你們對這個議題最新的看法是什麼？

You were quite vocal previously on it saying that it could increase demand in Europe by around 2% per year over the next 10 years. Is that still your scenario? And when do you expect that to really kick in already next two 2026 or it's more of a story of 2027 or even 2028 based on your latest understanding?

你們之前對此相當直言，表示它可能在未來 10 年讓歐洲需求每年增加約 2%。這仍然是你們的情境假設嗎？依你們最新的理解，你們預期它何時會真正開始發酵——是 2026 年就會開始，還是更像是 2027 年甚至 2028 年的故事？

Well, I mean, to be honest, I mean, we don't see any significant change there. I mean when we look at the impact of the program. We start actually to see some activity, right? So I don't believe that the overall numbers that we talked about, they will change. I mean we -- at least that's not the intelligence that we have.

嗯，老實說，我們沒有看到那邊有任何顯著變化。當我們看這個計畫的影響時，我們其實開始看到一些活動出現，對吧？所以我不認為我們之前談到的整體數字會改變。至少，這不是我們掌握到的資訊。

We will, of course, have to -- we'll keep monitoring that. But I think we are progressing as the progress is happening there.

當然我們會持續監測。但我認為那邊的進展正如其應有的方式在推進。

Okay. Thank you. Dominic, JPMorgan.

好的。謝謝。Dominic，摩根大通。

Hello. Thanks for taking my question. Just two quick questions. You've spoken and given us a lot of granularity on Europe. And again, just maybe coming back to the US given how tight we see that market at the moment, do you think there's any possibility that you actually run harder through Q2 than normal?

你好。謝謝讓我提問。兩個很快的問題。你們已經談了很多、也給了我們歐洲市場非常細的資訊。那再回到美國，鑑於我們目前看到市場非常吃緊，你認為第二季你們是否有可能比平常更高強度地運轉？

So obviously, we often see a summer slowdown. Do you think there is potential that given the state of lead times that you may run harder than normal? And second question, just on -- so any kind of obvious cash flow items we need to be aware of for Q2 modeling for the net debt bridge.

因為很明顯，我們常常會看到夏季放緩。考量到目前交期的狀況，你認為是否有可能比平常更高強度地運轉？第二個問題是——就第二季在建立淨負債變動（net debt bridge）模型時，有沒有任何明顯的現金流項目是我們需要留意的？

Dominic, so in US, I mean, as you know, I mean, we are running our facilities full. I mean, Calvert, we have been running at high levels, and that will continue, right? So where you're going to see improvements in terms of production shipments is going to be more really in Mexico and a little bit also in Canada, right?

Dominic，所以在美國，我的意思是，如你所知，我們的設施目前是滿載運轉。我的意思是，Calvert 我們一直以高水準運行，而且這種情況會持續，對吧？所以你會看到在產量出貨方面的改善，會更主要來自墨西哥，另外加拿大也會有一點，對吧？

And the focus in US for us right now is to ramp up EAF as we talked about, that will bring more results, so it should contribute to results. And the second part of the question, can you repeat that for me, please?

而我們目前在美國的重點，是如我們討論過的，加速提升 EAF 的產能爬坡，這會帶來更多成果，因此應該會對業績有所貢獻。至於問題的第二部分，你可以再重複一次給我嗎，麻煩？

But just in terms of modeling for net debt in Q2, are there any.

不過就第二季淨負債的建模而言，有沒有任何……

I would not -- Daniel, I would not focus so much in quarter two, right? I mean I guess my message is more really when I think about the year as a whole, as you know, we have -- typically, we will have a larger release of working capital in the second half. That should continue to be the case despite all the improvements that we are discussing, we are seeing, right?

我不會——Daniel，我不會那麼聚焦在第二季，對吧？我的意思是，我想我的訊息更偏向於從全年來看；如你所知，我們——通常在下半年會有較大的營運資金釋放。儘管我們正在討論、也正在看到的所有改善，這種情況應該仍會持續，對吧？

And we explained that because we built some strategic inventories at end of last year that we're going to be releasing. So despite all the good developments that we are seeing in terms of prices, volumes in the second half, our expectation is that for full year, working capital should not really be consuming a significant amount of cash, which should then support even more the free cash flow generation.

我們也解釋過，因為我們在去年年底建立了一些策略性庫存，接下來會釋放出來。所以儘管我們在下半年在價格、銷量方面看到許多正面發展，我們的預期是，就全年而言，營運資金不應該會實質消耗大量現金，進而更能支撐自由現金流的產生。

Is that helpful, Dominic? So I think the focus there just to reiterate is normally, the working capital movement in Q2, Q3 is not a major delta in the cash flow bridge, where it is a major delta is normally Q1 and Q4. So normally, we invest in working capital in the first quarter, and this year has been no different.

這樣有幫助嗎，Dominic？所以我想這裡的重點再重申一次：通常第二季、第三季的營運資金變動，在現金流橋接中不是主要的差異來源；主要差異通常出現在第一季和第四季。所以一般來說，我們會在第一季投入營運資金，而今年也不例外。

And then normally, we see a nice release of working capital in Q4 and Q2, Q3 normally that's broadly a wash. Great. So I think we will now move to the last question, which we're going to take from Matt at Goldman Sachs.

然後通常我們會在第四季看到相當不錯的營運資金釋放，而第二季、第三季通常大致上是相互抵銷。很好。所以我想我們現在會進入最後一個問題，我們將請 Goldman Sachs 的 Matt 提問。

Hey, Daniel, thanks for squeezing me in. Look, I have one question on your Indian operations, perhaps in two parts. Genuino, you mentioned costs are largely hedged, that's fine. But given India's reliance on gas imports primarily from the Middle East and some of your peers flagging shortages, could you outline where you're sourcing your gas from today and whether you've received any force majeure on future deliveries?

嗨，Daniel，謝謝你把我加進來。我有一個關於你們印度營運的問題，可能分成兩部分。Genuino，你提到成本大多已做避險，這沒問題。但考量到印度主要仰賴從中東進口天然氣，且你們一些同業提到供應短缺，你能否說明你們目前的天然氣來源，以及未來交付是否收到任何不可抗力通知？

And then just a follow-up, given your use of gas-based DRI and captive power, what measures can you realistically take to manage gas availability or reduce gas intensity across the Indian operations?

接著追問一下，考量你們使用以天然氣為基礎的 DRI 以及自備電力，你們在印度營運上，實際上可以採取哪些措施來管理天然氣供應，或降低天然氣使用強度？

So I think we are in a good place there as well. I mean we have different sources of gas. So we are not really dependent only on Middle East. So we are in a good place. So we have not had any force majeure. So we have received all our gas. We have no indication as we speak in end of April, beginning of May, no indication of force majeure.

所以我想我們在這方面也處於不錯的位置。我的意思是，我們有不同的天然氣來源。所以我們並不是只依賴中東。因此我們的狀況很好。我們沒有遇到任何不可抗力。所以我們已收到我們所有的天然氣。截至我們目前所知，在四月底、五月初，我們沒有任何不可抗力的跡象。

So I think we are -- as we discussed, I think we are in a good place there. So we are not expecting any disruptions because of availability for sure on the price and also on availability, it's not something that we are overly concerned at this point.

所以我想我們——如我們討論過的，我認為我們在這方面處於良好狀態。因此我們不預期會因供應可得性而出現任何中斷；當然在價格以及可得性方面，這不是我們目前特別擔憂的事情。

Great. So I'll hand back to Genuino for any closing remarks.

很好。那我把時間交回給 Genuino 做結語。

Yeah. So thank you, everyone. Before we close, let me briefly reflect on the key messages from today's discussion. First, our first quarter performance again demonstrates the structural improvement in the earnings power of ArcelorMittal. Margins are well above historical levels with the further benefits of more favorable policy still to accrue underlying free cash is annualizing at over $2 billion.

好的。所以謝謝各位。在結束之前，讓我簡要回顧一下今天討論的關鍵訊息。第一，我們第一季的表現再次展現了 ArcelorMittal 獲利能力的結構性改善。在更有利的政策效益尚待進一步體現之際，我們的利潤率已遠高於歷史水準；基礎自由現金流年化超過 20 億美元。

Second, we have a clear and differentiated growth pipeline. Our strategic investments are supporting our results and materially enhancing our future EBITDA potential. Finally, the positive outlook for our business is underpinned by more supportive trade policy, especially for Europe. More effective trade protections are fostering a more regionalized market structure, providing a robust platform for higher capacity utilization and profitability and higher and more consistent returns on capital employed.

第二，我們擁有清晰且具差異化的成長管線。我們的策略性投資正在支撐我們的業績，並實質提升我們未來 EBITDA 的潛力。最後，我們業務的正面展望，係由更具支持性的貿易政策所支撐，尤其是在歐洲。更有效的貿易保護正在促成更區域化的市場結構，為更高的產能利用率與獲利能力，以及更高且更一致的投入資本報酬率，提供穩健的平台。

Alongside the impact of our growth strategy, this supports the free cash flow outlook for ArcelorMittal and the delivery of consistent capital returns to shareholders. With that, I will close today's call. And if you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Daniel and his team.

再加上我們成長策略的影響，這些因素支撐 ArcelorMittal 的自由現金流展望，以及向股東提供一致的資本回饋。那麼，我將結束今天的電話會議。如果你有任何後續問題，請聯繫 Daniel 和他的團隊。

Thank you again for joining us, and I look forward to speaking with you soon. Stay safe and keep those around you safe as well.

再次感謝各位參與，我也期待很快再與各位交流。請注意安全，也請讓你身邊的人同樣保持安全。

Thank you.

謝謝。