ArcelorMittal SA (MT) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call today to discuss our performance and progress in the second quarter and first half of 2026. Leading today's call will be our Group CFO, Mr. Genuino Christino.

各位下午好。我是安賽樂米塔爾投資人關係團隊的 Daniel Fairclough。感謝各位今天參加本次電話會議，與我們一同討論 2026 年第二季及上半年之表現與進展。今天的電話會議將由本集團財務長（CFO）Genuino Christino 先生主持。

Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation, which was published this morning on our website. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide 21 of that presentation. And following opening remarks from Genuino, we will be moving directly to the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) And with that, I'll hand over the call to Genuino.

在開始之前，我想先提幾項例行事項。如同以往，我們不會逐頁講解今天早上已在官網發布的業績簡報。不過，我確實想提醒各位注意該簡報第 21 頁的免責聲明。在 Genuino 的開場致詞之後，我們將直接進入問答環節。(接線員指示) 那麼，接下來我把電話交給 Genuino。

Thanks, Daniel. Welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. As usual, I will keep my remarks brief. Let me start with safety, which remains our highest priority. ArcelorMittal's safety transformation continues to deliver measurable progress. The frequency rate of lost time injuries in the first six months of the year represented was a record low for our company. While we are encouraged by these improvements, we remain firmly focused on driving further progress.

謝謝你，Daniel。各位好，感謝參加今天的電話會議。如同往常，我會簡短說明。我先從安全談起，安全仍是我們的最高優先事項。安賽樂米塔爾的安全轉型持續帶來可衡量的進展。今年前六個月的失能傷害頻率（LTI frequency rate）創下公司歷史新低。儘管我們對這些改善感到鼓舞，但我們仍將堅定聚焦於推動進一步進展。

Turning now to the business. I would like to focus on three key points. First, we are seeing positive near-term momentum across the business. The operating environment has improved through the first half of the year, driving improved results and with positive momentum across all segments.

接著談到業務。我想聚焦三個重點。第一，我們看到整體業務在短期內呈現正向動能。今年上半年營運環境改善，帶動業績提升，且各事業部門皆呈現正向動能。

There is more improvement to come. EBITDA for the second quarter improved to $2.1 billion. This represents a margin of $155 per tonne, which is well above our previous through-the-cycle averages. Our European segment delivered EBITDA per tonne of $98, which is a three-year high and demonstrates the early signs of the improved policy backdrop.

後續仍有更多改善可期。第二季 EBITDA 提升至 21 億美元。這相當於每噸 155 美元的利潤率，明顯高於我們過去跨景氣循環的平均水準。我們的歐洲事業部每噸 EBITDA 達 98 美元，為三年新高，顯示政策環境改善的初步跡象。

Importantly, these results do not yet reflect the benefits of the new TRQ trade tool, which are becoming increasingly evident. Customer engagement is higher, our order book is getting stronger and prices are bucking the normal seasonal trends. Reflecting these positive dynamics, we have announced production restarts in Spain, Poland and more recently, France.

重要的是，這些結果尚未反映新 TRQ 貿易工具所帶來的效益，而該效益正日益明顯。客戶互動更為熱絡、訂單能見度（order book）持續轉強，價格也正在逆轉一般季節性走勢。反映這些正向動態，我們已宣布在西班牙、波蘭，以及近期在法國重啟生產。

As we head into August, we have our full suite of blast furnaces in operation. And as a result, we are guiding to third quarter shipments to be stable to higher than the second quarter, which would represent a powerful counterseasonal outcome. Underlying free cash flow in the first half was strong, annualizing at $2.5 billion, excluding seasonal working capital investments and strategic growth CapEx.

進入 8 月時，我們的高爐群將全數投入運轉。因此，我們指引第三季出貨量將與第二季持平至更高，這將是強勁的反季節性表現。上半年基礎自由現金流表現強勁，若年化約為 25 億美元（不含季節性營運資金投入與策略性成長資本支出）。

This is a strong outcome at this stage of the cycle and provides the foundation for continued investments and returns of capital to shareholders. This brings me to my second point, our differentiated portfolio of strategic growth projects and the opportunities that we are developing into growth options.

在景氣循環的此一階段，這是相當強勁的成果，並為持續投資及回饋股東奠定基礎。這也帶到我的第二點：我們具差異化的策略性成長專案組合，以及我們正在培育為成長選擇權的機會。

The medium- and long-term outlook for our business is supported by a number of powerful megatrends. Steel remains a critical enabler of electrification, renewable energy and data center infrastructure. At the same time, growing investment in infrastructure and defense is supporting steel demand across many of our core markets. India is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing major steel markets in the world, with demand expected to approximately double over the next decade.

我們業務的中長期展望受到多項強勁的巨型趨勢（megatrends）所支撐。鋼鐵仍是電氣化、再生能源與資料中心基礎設施的關鍵推動者。同時，基礎建設與國防投資增加，也在我們多個核心市場支撐鋼鐵需求。預期印度將持續是全球成長最快的主要鋼鐵市場之一，未來十年需求可望約翻倍。

ArcelorMittal has the products, people, capabilities and geographical footprint to capture the opportunities these long-term trends create. For several years now, we have been consistently funding our strategic growth projects. These high-return projects are expected to contribute new incremental EBITDA of $1.8 billion from 2026 onwards, providing a clear pathway to structurally higher earnings and returns through the cycle.

安賽樂米塔爾具備產品、人才、能力與地理布局，可掌握這些長期趨勢所創造的機會。過去數年，我們持續為策略性成長專案提供資金。這些高報酬專案預期自 2026 年起可貢獻新增（incremental）EBITDA 18 億美元，為跨景氣循環的結構性更高獲利與報酬提供清晰路徑。

What differentiates ArcelorMittal is not only the quality of our growth opportunities, but also the breadth of future options available to us. We have unique exposure to India, where we have a long-term plan to grow capacity to 40 million tonnes per annum. In Brazil, we are evaluating downstream growth opportunities that leverage our low-cost asset base and long slab position to create higher-value products.

安賽樂米塔爾的差異化不僅在於成長機會的品質，也在於我們可選擇的未來選項之廣度。我們在印度擁有獨特布局，並有長期計畫將產能提升至每年 4,000 萬噸。在巴西，我們正評估下游成長機會，運用我們的低成本資產基礎與長板坯（slab）優勢，打造更高附加價值產品。

In the US, we are advancing studies for potential second EAF at Calvert, building on the successful execution of the first EAF. In Liberia, our extensive resource base and established infrastructure provide further capital-efficient growth optionality. As with our capital allocation decisions, growth investments must compete for capital and ensure that we are on course to deliver increasing returns on capital employed.

在美國，我們正推進 Calvert 潛在第二座電弧爐（EAF）的研究，並以第一座 EAF 的成功執行為基礎。在賴比瑞亞，我們龐大的資源基礎與既有基礎設施，提供進一步具資本效率的成長選擇權。如同我們的資本配置決策，成長投資必須競爭資本，並確保我們正朝著提升投入資本報酬率（ROCE）的方向前進。

My final point is that we have all the elements in place to continue creating shareholders' value. The steel industry continues to evolve. Markets are becoming increasingly regionalized, supported by trade measures that promote domestic production. This aligns strongly with ArcelorMittal's business model of local production to serve local demand.

我的最後一點是：我們已具備持續創造股東價值的所有要素。鋼鐵產業仍在持續演變。在促進國內生產的貿易措施支持下，市場正變得更加區域化。這與安賽樂米塔爾「在地生產、服務在地需求」的商業模式高度一致。

We believe this regionalization trend should support higher sustainable profitability and returns across the cycle. At the same time, supportive policy momentum, the earnings contribution from our strategic growth projects, the future growth options that we are developing and our exposure to powerful long-term demand trends, are key drivers of higher earnings, returns on capital and free cash flow over time.

我們相信，這股區域化趨勢應可在景氣循環中支撐更高且更可持續的獲利能力與報酬。同時，政策面正向動能、策略性成長專案的獲利貢獻、我們正在培育的未來成長選擇權，以及我們對強勁長期需求趨勢的曝險，都是推動未來更高獲利、資本報酬與自由現金流的關鍵驅動因素。

Achieving our cost of capital is not a goal, but a minimum expectation for our business. We are allocating capital to projects that can generate returns well in excess of our cost of capital. The value we create for shareholders is then amplified via our consistent capital return policy, progressively growing the base dividend as earnings power of the business grows and consistent share buybacks.

達到我們的資本成本並非目標，而是我們業務的最低期待。我們將資本配置於可產生遠高於資本成本報酬的專案。接著，我們透過一貫的資本回饋政策放大對股東創造的價值：隨著企業獲利能力提升，逐步提高基本股利，並持續進行庫藏股買回。

As I conclude, the message is simple. I would like everyone to take away three key points from today's call. First, we are seeing positive momentum across the business. Our results are improving, market conditions are strengthening and the benefits of the recent policy change support the outlook.

在我結語時，訊息很簡單。我希望各位從今天的電話會議帶走三個重點。第一，我們看到整體業務呈現正向動能。我們的業績正在改善，市場狀況持續轉強，而近期政策變更的效益也支撐展望。

Second, we have a differentiated portfolio of strategic growth opportunities together with future growth options that provides a clear pathway to structurally higher earnings and returns through the cycle. Third, we clearly have the right elements in place to create a long-term shareholder value. We are focused on improving returns on capital, value-creating organic growth, maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet and delivering strong shareholder returns.

第二，我們擁有具差異化的策略性成長機會組合，以及未來成長選擇權，為跨景氣循環的結構性更高獲利與報酬提供清晰路徑。第三，我們顯然已具備創造長期股東價值的正確要素。我們聚焦於提升資本報酬、創造價值的有機成長、維持強健的投資等級資產負債表，並為股東帶來強勁回報。

With that, Daniel, I believe we can go to our Q&A.

以上，Daniel，我想我們可以進入問答環節。

Great. Thank you, Genuino. So we have a queue of questions in front of us. And the first one we will take from Alain at Morgan Stanley.

好的。謝謝你，Genuino。我們目前有一串問題在排隊。第一個問題我們將請 Morgan Stanley 的 Alain 提問。

A couple of questions from my side. Firstly, on Europe, can you talk a bit more about your outlook for that division? You've announced the restart of Fos-sur-Mer. Your order books appear to inflect. How should we expect your pricing dynamic to evolve into Q3 and Q4 after taking into account the lags?

我這邊有幾個問題。首先，關於歐洲，能否再多談一些你們對該事業部的展望？你們已宣布重啟 Fos-sur-Mer。你們的訂單簿似乎出現拐點。在考量滯後效應後，我們應該如何預期你們在第三季與第四季的定價動態演變？

And should we expect any incremental ramp-up costs that can hold your margins back for Europe? That's my first question.

另外，歐洲方面是否會有任何額外的爬坡（ramp-up）成本，可能壓抑你們的利潤率？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. Thank you, Alain. First of all, I think what we are seeing in Europe, it's all very positive, right? If you look at our guidance for quarter three in terms of shipments being higher or flat to slightly higher than the second quarter, as you know, that's not the usual trend. That speaks for what we are seeing in terms of the order book.

是的。謝謝你，Alain。首先，我認為我們在歐洲看到的一切都非常正面，對吧？如果你看我們對第三季的指引，就出貨量而言將高於或持平至略高於第二季；如你所知，這並不是通常的趨勢。這反映了我們在訂單簿方面所看到的情況。

We are booking right now -- already for quarter four. So it's all playing out very, very well, I would say, and that's the reason why we have brought back the furnaces. So we have three furnaces that are running. We will be running actually all of our furnaces in Europe from quarter three onwards. We are also seeing, which is also not what you would typically expect just before the summer breaks in Europe, right?

我們現在就已經在接第四季的訂單了。所以我會說一切進展得非常、非常順利，這也是我們把高爐重新啟動的原因。因此我們有三座高爐正在運轉。從第三季開始，我們實際上將在歐洲運轉我們所有的高爐。我們也看到一些情況——這在歐洲暑假前通常不太會出現，對吧？

So typically, at this point of the year, you would see prices kind of drifting a little bit lower. And that's not what you see, right? Of course, I'm not going to comment on evolution of prices from here, but looking at the indexes right now, they are moving in the right direction, right? So that's very good to see. Imports should be lower as a result of TRQ.

通常在一年中的這個時點，你會看到價格有點往下漂。但現在你並沒有看到這種情況，對吧？當然，我不會評論接下來價格的走勢，但就目前的指數來看，它們正朝著正確的方向移動，對吧？所以看到這點非常好。由於 TRQ（關稅配額），進口量應該會降低。

I would expect the company to continue to now regain market share from imports, as we talked before. And when we talked about -- when we think about the margins of the production that we're going to be bringing back, I think the message is same, Alain, that we talked about before.

我預期公司將會如我們先前談到的那樣，持續從進口手中重新奪回市占率。而當我們談到——當我們思考我們將要恢復的產量之利潤率時，我認為訊息和之前一樣，Alain，我們先前已談過。

As you know, I mean, as we bring back this capacity, we benefit from the fixed cost absorption, right, because we don't really expect to be adding much in terms of fixed costs as we bring back the capacity. But at the same time, you're going to have more carbon costs, right? So you need to balance that. Overall, our expectation is that this tonnes should be even more profitable than what we have today.

如你所知，當我們把這些產能帶回來時，我們會受益於固定成本的吸收，對吧？因為在恢復產能的同時，我們並不預期會增加太多固定成本。但同時，你會有更多的碳成本，對吧？所以你需要在兩者之間取得平衡。整體而言，我們的預期是，這些噸數的獲利能力將會比我們目前的水準更高。

That's very clear. And the second question is around Section 232, which is in two parts. So firstly, the US may roll out an onshoring investment plan for aluminum, where companies become eligible to import aluminum at a reduced tariff if they are building new capacity in the US.

非常清楚。第二個問題是關於 232 條款（Section 232），分成兩部分。首先，美國可能會推出一項鋁的回流投資（onshoring）計畫：若公司在美國興建新產能，便可符合資格以較低關稅進口鋁。

Are you having similar conversations with policymakers in the US to improve the economics of a potential second EAF at Calvert? That's one. And then sticking with Section 232, there are talks about Mexico potentially adopting a Section 232-style tariff framework as part of a revamped USMCA, Essentially, this would push Section 232 to the Mexican border. How would the setup impact your Mexican business if it were to happen?

你們是否也在與美國的政策制定者進行類似的對話，以改善在 Calvert 建置第二座電弧爐（EAF）的經濟性？這是第一點。另外同樣關於 232 條款，目前也有討論墨西哥可能在新版 USMCA 下採用類似 232 條款的關稅架構；本質上，這會把 232 條款推到墨西哥邊境。如果真的發生，這樣的安排會如何影響你們在墨西哥的業務？

Daniel, do you want to take this one?

Daniel，你要回答這題嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Genuino. So yes, thanks, Alain, for the question. I think starting obviously with North America, Section 232, interesting development with aluminum that you noted. Obviously, we've -- in the past couple of quarters, this subject has come up in our results conference calls.

好的。謝謝你，Genuino。所以，是的，謝謝你，Alain，這個問題。我想先從北美、232 條款談起，你提到鋁方面的發展，確實很有意思。顯然，在過去幾個季度，這個議題在我們的業績電話會議中也多次被提及。

But I think just to take a step back, I think it's clear that ArcelorMittal is very committed to our franchise in the US and North America more broadly. We have a record of innovation. We have our global R&D resources. We have our leading customer service in terms of quality and delivery.

但我想先退一步看，我認為很清楚的是，ArcelorMittal 對我們在美國、以及更廣泛的北美市場的既有版圖（franchise）非常投入。我們有創新紀錄。我們有全球研發資源。在品質與交付方面，我們也有領先的客戶服務。

So we really have a tremendous amount to offer our customers in the US. So the US policy objective, I think, is very much around encouraging domestic melt-and-pour capacity, and that's very much aligned with the investments that we have already been making at Calvert. So Genuino talked about the EAFs at Calvert in his opening remarks. EAF, the first EAF, the existing project that continues to ramp up very well.

因此，我們確實能為美國客戶提供非常多的價值。我認為美國的政策目標很大程度上是鼓勵國內的熔煉與澆鑄（melt-and-pour）產能，而這與我們已在 Calvert 進行的投資高度一致。Genuino 在開場致詞中談到了 Calvert 的電弧爐（EAF）。EAF，也就是第一座電弧爐，現有專案持續爬坡得非常順利。

We expect full capacity to be achieved later in this second half of the year. And to remind everybody, that's a state-of-the-art facility, first of its kind capable of producing the most demanding exposed automotive grades. And similarly, our new electrical steels project at Calvert, that's going to be producing the most sophisticated non-grain-oriented steels, and that's progressing very much to plan.

我們預期在今年下半年稍晚達到滿產。提醒大家，這是一座最先進的設施，屬於同類首創，能夠生產要求最嚴苛的外露級（exposed）汽車用鋼種。同樣地，我們在 Calvert 的新電工鋼專案將生產最先進的無取向（non-grain-oriented）電工鋼，目前也正按計畫推進。

The second EAF, it's a very strong project. It would further increase our domestic US melt-and-pour capacity. It would make Calvert less dependent on imported sources of slab. So it's very consistent with that overall US policy objective of producing steel domestically and having those robust supply chains. Any potential savings from the policy would, I think, ultimately be determined by the Department of Commerce.

第二座 EAF 是一個非常強的專案。它將進一步提升我們在美國本土的熔煉與澆鑄產能。它會讓 Calvert 對進口鋼胚（slab）來源的依賴降低。因此，這與美國整體政策目標——在國內生產鋼鐵並建立強韌供應鏈——非常一致。任何來自政策的潛在節省，我認為最終將由商務部（Department of Commerce）決定。

So consideration would be given to the resources that are committed, the national security benefits of any commitment and the commercially reasonable time period necessary to complete the project. So none of that we can answer at this stage. But I think what I can say at this stage is, and just referencing the opening remarks in the presentation, is that we are moving forward with the detailed engineering for the second EAF.

因此，會考量已承諾投入的資源、任何承諾所帶來的國家安全效益，以及完成該專案在商業上合理所需的時間期間。所以這些在現階段我們都無法回答。但我想此刻我能說的是，並呼應簡報開場致詞：我們正在推進第二座 EAF 的詳細工程設計。

We're incorporating the lessons learned from the first EAF project to optimize this. And as and when we've got any updates, we will share those with you in due course. And then just on your second question, I think it almost answers itself. I think, first of all, we have a strong business in North America. We're focused on producing locally for local demand.

我們正在納入第一座 EAF 專案的經驗教訓，以進一步優化。而在我們有任何更新時，會在適當時機與各位分享。至於你的第二個問題，我想幾乎不言自明。首先，我們在北美有一個強健的業務。我們專注於在地生產以滿足在地需求。

And I think we've long advocated for a greater policy alignment between the countries of the USMCA and very much broadening out the Section 232 border to the whole region and really creating this steel fortress North America. So Mexico continues to have relatively high import penetration compared to many of the other markets.

而且我認為我們長期以來一直主張 USMCA 各國之間應有更高程度的政策一致性，並將 232 條款的邊界擴大到整個區域，真正打造「北美鋼鐵堡壘」。因此，相較於許多其他市場，墨西哥的進口滲透率仍然相對偏高。

So further improvements really are needed. So I think the -- obviously, we can't confirm any of what you talked about in your question, but any move in that direction, we would be encouraging. So we're really advocating for a greater regional alignment, helping to reduce tariff-related costs across the North American business. So let's see what happens, but any progress there would clearly be a positive for our North American business. Great.

所以確實還需要進一步改善。因此，我想——顯然我們無法證實你在問題中提到的任何內容，但若朝那個方向邁進，我們會予以鼓勵。所以我們確實在倡議更高程度的區域一致性，協助降低北美業務中與關稅相關的成本。所以就看看會如何發展，但那方面的任何進展，顯然都會對我們的北美業務帶來正面影響。很好。

So I think we'll move to the next question, which we'll take from Ephrem at Citi.

所以我想我們會進入下一個問題，我們將請花旗的 Ephrem 提問。

So two questions. Firstly, can you talk about the level of inventories you're seeing in Europe? The messaging from the steel industry was that if TRQ came on, the slightly higher level of inventories carried over from last year will mean volumes will not pick up immediately, but your guidance for 3Q suggests otherwise, with much better seasonal shipments in the third quarter.

兩個問題。第一，您能談談您在歐洲看到的庫存水位嗎？鋼鐵產業的說法是，如果 TRQ 上路，去年延續下來的略高庫存水位將意味著出貨量不會立刻回升，但你們對第三季的指引卻顯示相反，第三季的季節性出貨將明顯更好。

So is the inventory levels now significantly lower to enable that shipment increase? And then secondly, both related, do the extension of free allowances to 2038 by the EU tweak any of your investment or decarbonization plans in Europe? And then given the blast furnaces that you are bringing back on right now, do you have enough carbon allowances for it? Or is it something that you will have to buy from the market?

所以目前庫存水位是否已顯著降低，足以支撐出貨增加？第二個問題也相關：歐盟將免費配額延長至 2038 年，是否會調整你們在歐洲的任何投資或減碳計畫？另外，鑑於你們現在正重新啟動高爐，你們是否有足夠的碳配額？還是你們必須從市場購買？

Okay. Thanks, Ephrem. So let me take your first question, and Daniel will comment on the ETS and the carbon cost. So inventories in Europe, Ephrem, I think what we saw during the quarter was pretty much what we were anticipating and we discussed during our first quarter. Imports were still elevated in the second quarter, right?

好的。謝謝你，Ephrem。我先回答第一個問題，Daniel 會就 ETS 與碳成本做補充。關於歐洲庫存，Ephrem，我認為我們在本季看到的情況大致符合我們的預期，也就是我們在第一季時討論過的。第二季進口仍然偏高，對吧？

And however, when you look at on a half year against half year of last year, you see that it's relatively stable, right? So -- and as we also talked about in quarter one, we don't really see that inventories are so excessive in Europe, right? And you can see that in our guidance. And perhaps that's because we are also more exposed to South, through France and Spain. And as we know, that's the region that is going to be also replacing most of the imports, so a large part of the imports.

不過，若以半年對半年、與去年同期相比，你會看到其實相對穩定，對吧？因此——而且如同我們在第一季也談到的，我們並不認為歐洲的庫存過度偏高，對吧？你也可以從我們的指引中看出來。也許這是因為我們在南歐的曝險較高，透過法國與西班牙。而我們知道，那個區域也將取代大部分的進口，因此會承接很大一部分的進口替代。

But we feel very -- so when we look at our order books and we look how the engagement from customers, it's all developing nicely, I would say. We talked also about how prices are evolving, which typically, when you have high inventories, you would not see that happening, right? So that gives us confidence to provide this guidance, and we feel good about it. Daniel, do you want to talk about carbon?

但我們感覺非常——當我們看我們的訂單簿、以及客戶的互動程度，一切都在良好發展，我會這麼說。我們也談到價格的走勢；通常若庫存很高，你不會看到那樣的情況發生，對吧？所以這讓我們有信心給出這個指引，我們對此感覺良好。Daniel，你要談談碳的部分嗎？

Yes, sure. So on the topic of ETS, I think just to take a step back, first of all, I think it's clear that the Commission is now really finally recognizing the challenges facing industry in Europe and really taking concrete actions to support it. So for steel, we've seen the new carbon border. The CBAM, that's been in place since the 1st of January. The new TRQ trade tool has been in place since the beginning of this month.

好的，當然。關於 ETS，我想先退一步說，首先很明顯，執委會現在終於真正認知到歐洲產業所面臨的挑戰，並且採取具體行動來支持它。就鋼鐵而言，我們看到新的碳邊境機制。CBAM，自 1 月 1 日起已經生效。新的 TRQ 貿易工具也自本月初起生效。

And these are very important developments, which are really reshaping the outlook for the steel industry in Europe. The ETS review, that's another important component of this. And the current proposals really do, I think, represent a step in the right direction. So it reflects this ongoing recognition and that decarbonization objectives do need to be balanced with industrial competitiveness.

這些都是非常重要的發展，正在重塑歐洲鋼鐵產業的前景。ETS 檢討是其中另一個重要組成部分。而目前的提案，我認為確實代表朝正確方向邁出一步。它反映出持續的認知：減碳目標確實需要與產業競爭力取得平衡。

So we see a number of positive elements, including the extension of the free allocation phaseout, the changes to the ETS cap that improve long-term availability of allowances and greater support for industrial decarbonization through things like the Decarbonization Bank.

因此我們看到一些正面要素，包括延長免費配額的退場期、調整 ETS 上限以改善長期配額供給，以及透過「減碳銀行」等方式對產業減碳提供更大支持。

But our key concern does remain aligning rising carbon costs with the conditions needed for decarbonization at scale. So we're going to continue to engage constructively on a framework that supports both decarbonization and maintains industrial competitiveness. And then on your last point, just in terms of incremental carbon costs, I think Genuino referenced it in his earlier remarks.

但我們的核心關切仍在於：如何讓上升的碳成本與大規模減碳所需的條件相匹配。因此我們將持續以建設性的方式參與，推動一個同時支持減碳並維持產業競爭力的框架。至於你最後一點，關於增量碳成本，我想 Genuino 在先前的發言中也提到了。

I think it's something that we mentioned on the call last quarter as well. So as we increase our production in Europe, you should anticipate that this will increase our carbon cost in Europe. So that's something that you need to be balancing in your projections. But Genuino was very clear in saying that this will be more than outweighed by the operating leverage, the fixed cost absorption.

我想這也是我們在上一季電話會議中提過的。因此，隨著我們提高在歐洲的產量，你應該預期我們在歐洲的碳成本會上升。所以這是你在預測中需要納入平衡的因素。但 Genuino 也非常清楚地表示，這將被營運槓桿、固定成本吸收所帶來的效益遠遠抵銷。

So those new tonnes that we're bringing on being incrementally more profitable than what we've just posted today. Great. Thanks, Ephrem. So with that, we will move to the next question, which we'll take from Reinhardt at Bank of America.

因此，我們新增的那些噸數，其增量獲利能力會高於我們今天剛公布的水準。很好。謝謝你，Ephrem。那麼接下來我們進入下一個問題，請美國銀行的 Reinhardt 提問。

First, I just want to ask about your slab network in the Western Hemisphere. To what extent do you have spare capacity in Brazil and especially now with the Calvert EAF ramping up, how much capacity do you think you have to be able to divert into Europe if the market maybe needs some extra tonnes?

首先，我想問一下你們在西半球的板坯網絡。你們在巴西有多少閒置產能？尤其是現在 Calvert 的 EAF 正在爬坡，你們認為有多少產能可以在市場可能需要額外噸數時轉向供應歐洲？

We are running our facilities in Brazil today at full capacity. The flat business is running. So all the furnaces are running. Of course, we have plenty of optionality to divert volumes where we see the opportunities, right? I mean, of course, the Group will always have priority. As you know, we have high-quality slabs coming not only from the same 3 million tonnes of slabs. We have also Tubarao also producing slabs. So we have something that I think is unique to ArcelorMittal.

我們目前在巴西的設施是滿載運轉。扁平材業務在運行。所以所有的爐都在運轉。當然，我們有很大的彈性，可以在看到機會時把量導向需要的地方，對吧？我的意思是，當然，集團永遠會優先。如你所知，我們有高品質板坯供應，不僅來自那 300 萬噸的板坯。我們的 Tubarao 也在生產板坯。所以我認為這是安賽樂米塔爾獨有的優勢。

And we talked about it in the past that we will see finally what happens and the ability of other mills in Europe to take their market share of the lower imports. But ArcelorMittal remain well positioned here to, if necessary, to bring slabs. We have more downstream capacity that we can utilize if we see that opportunity. So yes, so the Group is, I would say, in a unique position here to capitalize on its footprint.

而且我們過去也談過，我們將最終看到歐洲其他鋼廠在進口下降後，能在多大程度上取得其市場份額。但安賽樂米塔爾在這方面仍然處於有利位置，如有需要，可以引入板坯。我們也有更多下游產能可以利用，如果我們看到那個機會。所以是的，我會說集團在這裡處於一個獨特的位置，可以利用其版圖優勢。

That's very clear. And maybe just a question on your order book comments into 3Q. Can you give us a sense of how much of that sort of stable to up or, I guess, seasonal outperformance is due to market share gains? And how much of that would you estimate is just end market activity being better than expected?

這很清楚。另外想就你們對第三季訂單簿的評論問一下。你能否讓我們了解一下：那種穩定到上升、或我想是季節性優於預期的表現，有多少是來自市占率提升？又有多少你估計只是終端市場活動比預期更好？

Well, clearly, I mean, the demand picture in Europe has not really changed much, right, compared to what we discussed. So the demand in Europe is suppressed -- it's stable, right? Which is good because in the prior years, as we talked about as well, the real demand in Europe was declining.

嗯，很明顯，我是說，歐洲的需求情況其實沒有太大改變，對吧，相較於我們之前討論的。所以歐洲需求仍然受到壓抑——但它是穩定的，對吧？這是好事，因為在前幾年，如同我們也談到的，歐洲的實際需求是在下滑。

And this year, our expectation is for the real demand to stabilize, which I would say it's encouraging. It's a good start, right? So the demand picture is not really changing so much. So then it's really -- I mean, it's a function of the reduced level of imports that we are expecting with TRQ. So that's how we are seeing the evolution here.

而今年，我們的預期是實際需求將趨於穩定，我會說這令人鼓舞。這是一個好的開始，對吧？所以需求面並沒有太大變化。因此這真的——我的意思是——主要取決於我們預期在 TRQ 之下進口水準會下降。這就是我們所看到的演變。

Great. So I think we'll take the next question now from Tristan at BNP Exane.

很好。那我想我們現在請 BNP Exane 的 Tristan 提出下一個問題。

Maybe just a quick follow-up on the order book. Were you able to quantify it in Europe? It's up year-on-year, but by how much? Is it double digit?

我想就訂單簿再快速追問一下。你們是否能量化歐洲的情況？年增是上升的，但上升了多少？是雙位數嗎？

Tristan, look, I mean, I think our guidance is quite clear, right? So -- and if you look at our deck, our slides, we have provided the drop in shipments in '25 and '24, Q3 against Q2. You can see that it's mid- to high single digit in terms of drop in shipments quarter-on-quarter, Q3 against Q2. And the guidance is for stable or slightly higher. I think that's quite specific guidance, I would say.

Tristan，你看，我的意思是，我認為我們的指引相當清楚，對吧？所以——如果你看我們的簡報、投影片，我們已提供 2025 年與 2024 年第三季相較第二季的出貨下滑幅度。你可以看到，就出貨的季對季下滑而言，第三季相較第二季是中到高個位數的下滑。而指引是維持穩定或略高。我認為這是相當具體的指引。

And as I talked about also before, we are now really looking at Q4. So it's -- we are in a good position, in a strong position here. Again, a very good level of engagement from customers. So it's all developing, as I said, quite well.

而且如我先前也提到的，我們現在其實是在看第四季。所以——我們目前處於良好、而且很強的位置。同樣地，客戶的互動與投入程度非常好。所以一切都如我所說，發展得相當順利。

Okay. No, that's fair. Another question on Europe. Do you think there is a decent probability that the price-setting tonne for HRC in Europe could be the tariff paying imports? Or do you think that there's going to be sufficient domestic capacity, especially in the near term?

好的。不，這樣說很合理。另一個關於歐洲的問題。你認為歐洲熱軋捲（HRC）的定價噸位，有相當機率會由需支付關稅的進口來決定嗎？還是你認為國內產能會足夠，尤其是在短期內？

And also on the supply side, do you see a risk of seeing some idle facilities in Europe getting purchased by foreign slab producer and transform into re-rolling centers? Is that something that you would consider as a risk?

另外在供給端，你是否看到歐洲一些閒置設施被外國板胚生產商收購，並轉型為再軋中心的風險？這是你們會視為風險的事情嗎？

Yes. So maybe I will start and Daniel will add, Tristan. So first part of your question, I think what we are still missing in Europe, to be honest, is this pickup in demand, right? So as we were discussing, so demand is now relatively flat, the real demand. If you look at the World Steel Association, they have a positive forecast for next year.

是的。Tristan，也許我先回答，Daniel 再補充。就你問題的第一部分，老實說，我認為我們在歐洲目前仍缺少的是需求回升，對吧？如我們一直在討論的，需求、也就是實際需求，目前相對持平。如果你看世界鋼鐵協會，他們對明年有正向的預測。

We have all these programs announced in various countries that should support. We talked a little bit about the megatrends as well, electrification. So I think we remain in the medium to long term, optimistic that demand in Europe should start to move in the right direction as well, right? More recently, we have seen PMIs also moving in positive territory, which is encouraging. So I think if you get to a scenario where demand improves, why not, right?

我們也看到各國宣布了各種應該能提供支撐的方案。我們也稍微談到一些大趨勢，例如電氣化。所以我認為在中長期，我們仍然樂觀，歐洲需求也應該會開始朝正確方向發展，對吧？最近我們也看到 PMI 進入正向區間，這令人鼓舞。所以我認為如果出現需求改善的情境，為什麼不可能呢？

So then it might be that actually imports -- the import parity will establish the European prices. But that's -- I think that's -- we are still some time. We have to see how the competition, how the other mills also bring capacity, what they can actually do, right? So I think it's early days, really, to talk about this.

那麼確實可能會是進口——也就是進口平價（import parity）來建立歐洲的價格。但我認為——我們距離那個情況還需要一些時間。我們必須看看競爭態勢、其他鋼廠如何恢復產能、他們實際能做到什麼，對吧？所以我認為現在談這個還言之過早。

One thing is for sure, as we bring capacity back and competition does the same, the marginal cost of production in Europe should rise. And that should, of course, support prices in Europe. Daniel, do you want to talk a little bit about the re-rollers and --

有一點可以確定的是，當我們把產能帶回來、競爭對手也做同樣的事時，歐洲的邊際生產成本應該會上升。而這當然會支撐歐洲的價格。Daniel，你要不要談一下再軋廠（re-rollers）以及--

Yes. Yes, sure. So I think it's clear that European policy is there to promote competitiveness of domestic capacity, domestic production. So I think it's clear that the Commission does not want to see capacity close. They want to see capacity remain competitive.

是的。好的。我認為很清楚，歐洲政策的方向是促進本土產能、本土生產的競爭力。所以我認為很清楚，執委會不希望看到產能關閉。他們希望產能保持競爭力。

They want the industry to continue to support employment, et cetera. So in your scenario, I think I would -- it would reinforce further actions from the Commission and putting slabs into the TRQ quota tool. So I think that it's probably just a question of time before slabs become part of TRQ just to make sure that, that's not a long-term risk to steel production in Europe.

他們希望產業持續支持就業等等。所以在你描述的情境下，我認為——這會進一步強化執委會採取行動，並把板胚納入 TRQ 關稅配額工具。因此我認為板胚成為 TRQ 的一部分，可能只是時間問題，以確保這不會成為歐洲鋼鐵生產的長期風險。

All right. That's very clear. And if I could just squeeze a quick one on China. I noticed you put China restructuring as a potential upside in the presentation. I don't think that was there before. Does that mean you've seen some positive sign or expect anything in the coming year? Or am I just reading too much out of it?

好的。非常清楚。如果我可以再快速問一個關於中國的問題。我注意到你們在簡報中把中國重整列為一個潛在上行因素。我記得之前沒有。這是否表示你們看到一些正面跡象，或預期明年會有什麼動作？還是我解讀過度了？

Unfortunately, yes, Tristan, to be honest, I mean, we know, I mean -- and we have discussed that, right? So we know that it has to happen at some point in time. It's just not possible for us to say when and how. But I think it's clear that it eventually will need to happen. I mean, you still have -- as we know, I mean, half of the industry in China at least, burning cash is not something that we see is sustainable.

老實說，不幸的是，是的，Tristan。我們知道——而且我們也討論過，對吧？我們知道這在某個時間點必須發生。只是我們無法說明何時以及如何發生。但我認為很清楚，最終它必須發生。

But when and how it happens is difficult to precise. But that, of course, when it does and international prices then would then normalize, that, of course, would support the industry, not only in Europe but across the globe for sure.

但它何時、以及如何發生，很難精確說明。但當它真的發生、國際價格隨之回歸正常時，當然會支撐產業，不僅在歐洲，也肯定會在全球範圍內。

Great. Thanks, Tristan. So we'll move now to take the next question from Andrew at UBS.

很好。謝謝你，Tristan。那我們現在請 UBS 的 Andrew 提出下一個問題。

Can you hear me okay?

你們聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

聽得到。

Yes, great. And so I just wanted to follow up on -- first of all, just on the CapEx projects that aren't included in the $1.8 billion long-term guidance. Curious what the time scale is in terms of steps to implementation. It sounds like Hazira is already an approved study, as you put in the presentation.

好，太好了。我想追問——首先，關於未納入 18 億美元長期指引的資本支出（CapEx）專案。我想了解從現在到落地執行的時間尺度大概是怎樣的。聽起來 Hazira 如你們在簡報中所說，已經是核准的研究案。

So I'm kind of curious where we go from here, construction timeline, like how certain is this? And maybe just expand out some of those other projects? And then I have a follow-up on the decarbon Europe.

所以我有點好奇接下來會怎麼走，施工時程之類的，這件事的確定性有多高？也許也請你們再多談一些其他專案？然後我還有一個關於歐洲去碳化（decarbon） 的追問。

Yes. Sure, Andrew. Andrew, as you know, we have been investing in a good list of projects now for a couple of years, right? And we are starting to see the benefits, right, already in 2025, '26, we have $700 million out of the $1.8 billion that we should be capturing this year. We captured already $300 million in H1.

是的。當然可以，Andrew。Andrew，如你所知，我們這幾年一直在投資一系列相當多的專案，對吧？而我們已經開始看到效益，對吧——在 2025、2026 年，我們今年應該能從 18 億美元中實現 7 億美元。我們在上半年已經實現了 3 億美元。

So we have another $400 million that we believe we should be captured in H2, and there is more to come. So -- and then what we are trying to do is to show the old opportunities and unique opportunities that we have when we look at across our portfolio, right? And I think, again, it's quite unique to ArcelorMittal, given our presence in these five regions that are very attractive from a demand point of view.

所以我們還有另外 4 億美元，我們相信應該會在下半年實現，而且後面還會有更多。所以——我們想做的是，展示當我們檢視整個投資組合時所看到的既有機會與獨特機會，對吧？而且我認為，考量我們在五個地區的布局、而這些地區從需求角度看都非常具吸引力，這對安賽樂米塔爾（ArcelorMittal）而言確實相當獨特。

So you see us looking at more investments in Brazil, downstream, which makes a lot of sense for us. We have a low-cost base in Brazil. We are long slabs. The country is short value-added products. So it's just something that makes a lot of sense for us, and we are advancing the engineering work. The same is true for Calvert, the second EAF. So we are also progressing there with the engineering work.

所以你看到我們正在巴西下游領域評估更多投資，這對我們而言非常合理。我們在巴西擁有低成本的成本基礎。我們的板坯供給充足。而該國則缺乏高附加價值產品。因此這對我們來說非常有道理，我們也正在推進工程設計工作。Calvert（第二座電弧爐，EAF）的情況也是如此。所以我們在那邊的工程工作也在持續推進。

And of course, we have India where our ambition is very significant, right? And thinking about the CapEx, for sure, we're going to be completing this year a number of projects. So Liberia is a good example. The expansion of Serra Azul is another example. So we're going to be also completing the EAF in US.

當然，我們在印度的雄心非常大，對吧？談到資本支出（CapEx），可以肯定的是，我們今年將完成多個專案。賴比瑞亞就是一個很好的例子。Serra Azul 的擴建是另一個例子。所以我們也將完成美國的電弧爐（EAF）。

So we are creating space within our envelope to add some of these other projects, right? So as and when we complete the engineering work and we feel we have a good solution, then we will take that to our Board and then we will announce more details, timelines and contributions, et cetera, et cetera. But I think you should take that this company will continue to grow, and that's something that differentiates us as well.

因此我們正在我們的資本支出框架內騰出空間，以便加入其中一些其他專案，對吧？所以當我們完成工程工作並且覺得已有良好方案時，我們就會提交董事會，然後公布更多細節、時程與貢獻等資訊，等等。但我認為你應該理解，這家公司將會持續成長，而這也是我們的差異化之一。

Yes. Okay. That's clear. And on the EAF projects and obviously, you've advanced Dunkirk. I mean given all the support you've received from the EU around the TRQ and obviously, now the ETS phase out and things like that, I'm curious how you're seeing those other potential decarb projects that were talked about a few years ago.

是的。好的。很清楚。關於電弧爐（EAF）專案，顯然你們已推進敦克爾克（Dunkirk）。我的意思是，考量到你們從歐盟在關稅配額（TRQ）方面獲得的支持，以及現在排放交易體系（ETS）逐步取消等因素，我很好奇你們如何看待幾年前討論過的其他潛在脫碳專案。

I mean, is -- what comes next? Is it Ghent? Is it Germany? And I mean, DRI, you've kind of said that doesn't really make sense in the next few years, in the past. But with all this support, is DRI potentially becoming more viable and given the supply chain insecurity, do you need to build DRI capacity in Europe in the future rather than relying on like the merchant HBI market when obviously, there's growing EAF supply in the European market?

我的意思是——接下來是什麼？是根特（Ghent）嗎？是德國嗎？另外，關於直接還原鐵（DRI），你們過去曾表示未來幾年並不太有意義。但在這些支持之下，DRI 是否可能變得更可行？以及在供應鏈不安全的情況下，未來你們是否需要在歐洲建立 DRI 產能，而不是依賴商業化的熱壓塊鐵（HBI）市場？畢竟歐洲市場的電弧爐（EAF）供給正在增加。

Yes. Well, Andrew, to be honest, right now, I mean, it's not really part of our plans, right? I mean you saw what we are doing in Dunkirk. We have already, within the Group, DRI capacity, right? And as we know, we still have to see the conditions for DRI in Europe to develop.

是的。嗯，Andrew，坦白說，就目前而言，這並不在我們的計畫之內，對吧？你也看到我們在敦克爾克所做的事情。而且我們集團內部已經有 DRI 產能，對吧？同時我們也知道，歐洲要發展 DRI 的條件仍有待觀察。

I mean we know where price -- gas prices are. We know what is the availability of hydrogen. What is the price, right? So today, it's very hard to see. We don't see it yet, that the conditions for DRI are present.

我們知道天然氣價格目前在哪個水準。我們知道氫氣的可得性如何。以及價格是多少，對吧？所以在今天，真的很難判斷。我們還看不到 DRI 所需的條件已經具備。

It's challenging. I mean we have one -- the only DRI we operate in Europe in Hamburg, and we know how difficult it is. And in terms of sequencing, at this point in time, the focus is Dunkirk. And of course, we have done already. So when you think about all this change that we discussed, that Daniel talked about, the ETS, I think we are in a strong position because we have already done a lot of work on all of these projects, right?

這很具挑戰性。我的意思是，我們在歐洲營運的 DRI 只有一座——漢堡（Hamburg）的那座，我們知道那有多困難。就推進順序而言，在目前這個時間點，重點是敦克爾克。而且當然，我們已經做了很多。所以當你想到我們討論過的所有變化、Daniel 提到的 ETS 等，我認為我們處於有利位置，因為我們在這些專案上已經做了大量工作，對吧？

So as we learn more from the Commission, the change to the ETS, I think we're going to be in a position to move. But what is important and the message remains the same, that we will invest when it makes economic sense, when we can earn a decent return on our capital. Otherwise, we will -- as I talked about in my opening remarks, there is a competition in this Group for capital, right? And we will fund the projects that can deliver the highest returns, and that's what we will continue to do.

隨著我們從歐盟執委會進一步了解 ETS 的變更，我認為我們將具備推進行動的條件。但重要的是，訊息仍然相同：我們會在具備經濟合理性時投資，也就是當我們能在資本上取得合理回報時。否則——正如我在開場致詞中提到的——集團內部存在資本競爭，對吧？我們會為能帶來最高回報的專案提供資金，而這也是我們將持續做的事情。

Great. Thanks, Andy. So we'll move now to take a question from Boris at Kepler.

很好。謝謝，Andy。接下來我們請 Kepler 的 Boris 提問。

I would start with the usual bridge into Q3. If you could share the dynamics you see for Q3, not only for Europe, but the other regions? And yes, that's the first question.

我先從一貫的第三季（Q3）銜接分析開始。你們能否分享一下你們對第三季的動態觀察，不僅是歐洲，也包括其他地區？是的，這是第一個問題。

Daniel, do you want to walk them through the bridge?

Daniel，你要不要帶大家走一遍這個銜接分析（bridge）？

Yes. Yes, sure. So I think the -- it's a very simple bridge. So Genuino talked about the positive outlook, the positive outlook for the third quarter, the positive outlook for the second half as a whole. So it's -- yes, so it's a very simple bridge. We expect all steel segments to improve sequentially into the third quarter.

是的。好的，當然。所以我認為——這是一個非常簡單的銜接分析。Genuino 談到了正向展望：第三季的正向展望、以及整個下半年的正向展望。所以——是的，這是一個非常簡單的銜接分析。我們預期所有鋼鐵業務分部在第三季將較前一季改善。

The key themes for the Group as a whole being higher steel shipments, we would expect higher average selling prices to be reflected in the third quarter as well. But there will be some additional costs. Genuino referred to it in previous remarks, particularly higher carbon costs as our European production increases.

就集團整體而言，關鍵主題是鋼材出貨量增加；我們也預期較高的平均售價會在第三季反映出來。但也會有一些額外成本。Genuino 在先前的發言中提到，特別是隨著我們歐洲產量增加，碳成本會更高。

So those are the key themes for the third quarter. I think for the second half as a whole, we obviously would expect that momentum to hopefully continue into the fourth quarter. Normally, fourth quarter is a better quarter from a volume standpoint than the third quarter. And in the previous questions, we've been talking about momentum on pricing and spreads right now, which would obviously come through to results with appropriate lags.

以上就是第三季的關鍵主題。我認為就整個下半年而言，我們當然希望這股動能能延續到第四季。通常從量的角度來看，第四季會比第三季更好。而在前面的問題中，我們也談到目前價格與價差的動能，這些顯然會在適當的時間落後後反映到業績上。

And then the other thing just to highlight, I think, in terms of the outlook, not part of your question, but we have reiterated again the prospect of positive free cash flow this year, not just this year but beyond. And I think that should be quite clear in your modeling. We've got working capital unwind, higher profitability in the second half of the year, and that combination should be quite powerful from a free cash flow perspective.

另外還想強調一點，關於展望——雖然不是你問題的一部分——我們再次重申今年有望實現正的自由現金流，不僅是今年，未來也會如此。我想這在你的模型中應該要相當清楚。我們有營運資金回收（working capital unwind）、以及下半年更高的獲利能力，而這樣的組合從自由現金流角度來看應該會相當強勁。

Very clear. My second question is on Europe. There are two questions in one. Where do you see the potential for margins in Europe? We are now sitting at $98, as you mentioned. It's quite a jump from $70 in Q1. What kind of potential do you see? And more generally, in Europe now that you have a better backdrop, more supportive by direct and trade defense. Do you see scope for consolidation? And is it now a place you would look differently in the current setup?

非常清楚。我的第二個問題是關於歐洲。其實是兩個問題合在一起。你們認為歐洲的利潤率潛力在哪裡？如你所提到，我們目前在 98 美元。相較第一季（Q1）的 70 美元，這是相當大的跳升。你們看到的潛力有多大？更廣泛地說，在歐洲現在有更好的大環境、並且在直接措施與貿易防衛方面更具支持性之下，是否有整併的空間？而在目前的架構下，這是否會成為你們以不同方式看待的市場？你們會因此改變對歐洲的看法嗎？

Yes, Boris, so let me take this one. Thank you. Look, in terms of where margins should -- what is the potential for margins, I think it's -- I'm very encouraged when I look at -- if you look at our profitability in Q2, Europe, very close to $100 already, right? And as we talked about, we have not yet seen the benefits of the TRQ.

是的，Boris，那我來回答這題。謝謝。你看，就毛利應該落在哪裡——毛利的潛力有多大而言，我覺得——我很受鼓舞，因為我看到——如果你看我們第二季在歐洲的獲利能力，已經非常接近 100 美元了，對吧？而且如我們所談到的，我們尚未看到 TRQ 的效益。

So clearly, there is potential for us to do better. I will not, of course, volunteer a number, but I think we have not yet seen the potential, right, which is very encouraging. And then to your second point in terms of consolidation in Europe, I think we have always seen the benefits of consolidation.

所以很明顯，我們有進一步做得更好的空間。當然我不會主動給出一個數字，但我認為我們還沒有看到全部的潛力，對吧，這非常令人鼓舞。然後就你第二點、關於歐洲的整併而言，我想我們一直都看得到整併帶來的好處。

As we know, Europe is more fragmented than some other regions. It could benefit from consolidation. But ArcelorMittal, as you know, we are already very large. Our focus is on running our assets. So we have a lot of opportunities. We have some of the best assets in Europe. So that's our focus to run our -- earn our cost of capital. That's the focus that we have set for ourselves.

如我們所知，歐洲比其他一些地區更為分散。它可能會受益於整併。但如你所知，ArcelorMittal 我們已經非常大。我們的重點在於把我們的資產經營好。所以我們有很多機會。我們在歐洲擁有一些最好的資產。所以我們的重點是經營我們的——賺取我們的資本成本。這就是我們為自己設定的重點。

Great. Thanks, Boris. We'll move now to take a question from Bastian at Deutsche Bank.

很好。謝謝，Boris。我們現在轉到德意志銀行的 Bastian 提問。

I have one on the mining business. So I guess you're holding on to the 18 million tonne guidance for Liberia. There's a slide in your pack as well, but it doesn't have the numbers. Can you maybe help us with the shipment number for Liberia for the first half so that we can gauge roughly what you're still expecting in the second? That's my first question.

我有一題關於採礦業務。所以我想你們仍維持賴比瑞亞 1,800 萬噸的指引。你們資料包裡也有一張投影片，但沒有數字。你能否提供賴比瑞亞上半年出貨量的數字，讓我們大致評估你們下半年仍預期多少？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. Sure, Bastian. So when you look at the Liberia project, I think we are -- it's progressing well. So we have two of the lines of the concentrator that are running. We are ramping up the second, getting ready to start the third one. We continue to guide for 18 million tonnes, so as per plan. And the production in Liberia is up very significantly already. You can see that year-on-year.

是的。當然可以，Bastian。所以當你看賴比瑞亞專案時，我認為我們——進展良好。所以我們的選礦廠有兩條產線正在運轉。我們正在爬坡第二條，並準備啟動第三條。我們仍維持 1,800 萬噸的指引，所以按計畫進行。而且賴比瑞亞的產量已經大幅提升。你可以看到年對年表現。

And in the second half, we need to ship about 10 million tonnes to get to this 18 million. So we feel that we can achieve that. We have the port, the rail, the infrastructure, it's all in place. And as we talked about in our MD&A in the earnings release, because of the very heavy rainy season that we experienced, we had some delays in shipments, which we expect to catch up in quarter three. So all in all, I would expect shipments to see already an improvement in shipments in Q3.

而在下半年，我們需要出貨大約 1,000 萬噸才能達到 1,800 萬噸。所以我們覺得可以達成。我們有港口、鐵路、基礎設施，一切都已就位。而且如我們在財報新聞稿的 MD&A 中所談到的，由於我們經歷了非常嚴重的雨季，我們的出貨有一些延遲，我們預期會在第三季追趕回來。所以總體而言，我預期第三季出貨量就會看到改善。

Got you. And then just coming back briefly to, I guess, some of the earlier questions, particularly with regards to the re-rolling capacity and the implications of slabs coming in. Slabs are obviously not yet part of these safeguards. Is there a number you have in mind how much capacity European re-rollers could potentially ramp up here? Is there a number you would put out there as to how much of the supply gap could be filled by re-rollers until potential safeguards on slabs may potentially be introduced as well?

了解。然後我想簡短回到一些較早的問題，特別是關於再軋產能以及進口板胚帶來的影響。板胚顯然還不在這些保障措施之內。你們心中是否有一個數字，歐洲再軋廠可能在這裡把產能提高多少？你們是否願意提出一個數字，說在板胚可能也被納入保障措施之前，再軋廠可以填補多少供給缺口？

Yes. Bastian, I -- to be honest, it's not something that we are overly concerned. I think in Europe today, the re-rollers, they have been there forever, right? And they have established supply chains, they are operating today, right? So they will -- I believe they will continue to operate. So I would not worry so much about that at this point.

是的。Bastian，老實說，這不是我們特別擔心的事情。我想在今天的歐洲，再軋廠一直都存在，對吧？而且他們已建立供應鏈，他們目前也在營運，對吧？所以他們——我相信他們會持續營運。所以在這個時間點我不會太擔心。

Okay. Fair enough. But do you have a number in mind as to how much capacity these guys really can ramp up?

好的。可以理解。但你心中有沒有一個數字，這些業者實際上能把產能拉升多少？

No, I'm not going to comment on that, Bastian.

不，我不會對此發表評論，Bastian。

Yes. And I think just to complement, Genuino, or just to reiterate what you just said, I think we really don't see a lot of spare rolling capacity in Europe, and that can be ramped up. I think the earlier question was very different because that was a question about potentially closing primary capacity in Europe and replacing that with imported slabs to then be re-rolled.

是的。我想補充一下，Genuino，或只是重申你剛才說的，我認為我們確實看不到歐洲有很多可用的閒置軋鋼產能可以拉升。我想先前那個問題非常不同，因為那是在問：是否可能關閉歐洲的一次產能，並以進口板胚來取代，然後再進行再軋。

So that would be a very, very different scenario and clearly something that we would expect to be -- the European Commission to not want to see and to take action to prevent that from happening. And that's why I was referencing slab becoming potentially part of the tariff rate quota tool.

所以那會是非常、非常不同的情境，而且顯然我們預期——歐盟執委會不會希望看到那樣的情況，並會採取行動防止其發生。這也是為什麼我提到板胚可能會被納入關稅配額（TRQ）工具的一部分。

But that's not a near-term risk or dynamic. And the near-term opportunity for additional rolling in Europe, we really just don't see that as being fundamental to the near-term supply-demand outlook. Great. Thanks, Bastian. So I think we'll move now to take our last question, which will be from Cole at Jefferies.

但那不是短期的風險或動態。而就短期而言，歐洲額外的再軋機會，我們確實不認為它會是短期供需展望的關鍵因素。很好。謝謝，Bastian。那我想我們現在進入最後一個問題，將由 Jefferies 的 Cole 提問。

I'd just like to follow up on two of the new slides that you've got in the deck. The first is on your Sustainable Solutions business. You're talking about $750 million of EBITDA medium term. I'd just like a little bit more color, what gives you confidence in delivering that number because $750 million is more than some smaller steel companies are delivering at the moment. So just some quantification of that.

我想跟進你們簡報裡兩張新的投影片。第一張是關於你們的永續解決方案（Sustainable Solutions）業務。你們談到中期 EBITDA 7.5 億美元。我想要更多一些細節：是什麼讓你們有信心能達成這個數字？因為 7.5 億美元比一些較小的鋼鐵公司目前的表現還要高。所以希望能有一些量化說明。

And then following up on that is the comment that you made about using steel on your slide 19 on -- effectively for the transformation. How do you see steel playing its role?

然後接著是你在第 19 張投影片上提到使用鋼材——基本上是為了轉型。你怎麼看鋼材在其中扮演的角色？

So thank you, Cole. Thank you for your question on Sustainable Solutions. It's something that we are very excited about. And I will address this one, and I will ask Daniel to talk about your second question. So as you can see, I mean, we are making good progress with our Sustainable Solutions division, right?

所以謝謝你，Cole。謝謝你關於永續解決方案的提問。這是我們非常興奮的一件事。我會先回答這題，然後我會請 Daniel 來談你的第二個問題。所以如你所見，我的意思是，我們在永續解決方案事業部的進展不錯，對吧？

So we are already running the run rate, as you can see, it's already in excess of $500 million. And we are executing projects that will add to profitability of this division, the renewables, the investments that we are making in India. So we are developing another gigawatt of capacity there, renewable, which is very good in terms of returns, IRR.

所以我們目前的年化運行水準（run rate），如你所見，已經超過 5 億美元。而且我們正在執行一些專案，會提升這個事業部的獲利能力，包括再生能源，以及我們在印度所做的投資。所以我們正在那裡再開發 1GW 的再生能源產能，從報酬、IRR 的角度來看非常好。

It allows us to have this very stable levels of EBITDA and free cash flow as we are enjoying with the first project that we completed in India. Second part of the growth story there is our sustainable construction business. So that's panels, profiles that we are developing. We have already a strong base in Europe.

它讓我們能夠擁有非常穩定的 EBITDA 與自由現金流水準，就像我們在印度完成的第一個專案所享有的一樣。那裡成長故事的第二部分是我們的永續建築業務。也就是我們正在開發的板材、型材。我們在歐洲已經有很強的基礎。

We are now expanding the footprint into India, into US, in Brazil. We have recently acquired a company producing the same products in Brazil. We are developing greenfields as you can see in our Sustainable section in our earnings release, a greenfield also in US.

我們目前正將版圖擴展至印度、至美國、以及巴西。我們近期在巴西收購了一家生產相同產品的公司。我們也在開發綠地項目，正如你在我們財報新聞稿的「永續」章節所見，在美國也有一個綠地項目。

We are starting this business there, something that we have a lot of the expertise. So those are the drivers, really, of the increase in this division in the near term. Daniel, do you want to talk about the second part?

我們正在那裡啟動這項業務，而這正是我們具備大量專業能力的領域。因此，這些確實是推動本事業部門在短期內成長的動因。Daniel，你要談談第二部分嗎？

Yes, sure. Thanks, Genuino. And yes, thanks for the question as well, Cole, because this is obviously a very topical theme, electrification. It's one of the clear megatrends, and it's a megatrend that I think people are getting quite excited about. But within that excitement, I think the role that steel will play in this is not being recognized.

好的，當然。謝謝你，Genuino。Cole，也謝謝你的提問，因為這顯然是一個非常熱門的主題：電氣化。這是明確的巨型趨勢之一，而且我認為大家對此相當興奮。但在這股熱潮之中，我認為鋼鐵在其中將扮演的角色並未被充分認知。

And when we think about the build-out of renewables, the build-out of transmission, it just won't be achieved without steel. So steel is very much fundamental to this theme of electrification. So we've taken the opportunity to try and put some numbers around it, and this is page 19 of the slide deck that we published this morning.

當我們思考再生能源的建置、輸電網的建置時，沒有鋼鐵就不可能達成。因此，鋼鐵對於電氣化這個主題而言是非常根本的。所以我們把握機會嘗試用一些數字來量化，這在我們今天早上發布的簡報第19頁。

And it's simply just looking at the projections through 2035 for electricity generation in the various different regions. We've applied some standardized assumptions, external assumptions rather than our own assumptions around the steel intensity of that generation. And once you put it all together, it's a very significant number, almost 300 million tonnes of steel would be required to achieve these electrification goals through 2035 ex China.

這只是單純檢視到2035年，各個不同地區的發電量預測。我們採用了一些標準化假設，是外部假設而非我們自己的假設，來估算該發電所需的鋼材強度（steel intensity）。把這些整合起來後，得到的數字非常可觀：為了在2035年前（不含中國）達成這些電氣化目標，幾乎需要3億噸鋼材。

So it's an important theme. We have good exposure to it. If you look at our product portfolio, we produce all of the steels that are going to be required to achieve these goals. Think about Magnelis and our other products, which are well suited to solar, think about heavy plate for wind, electrical steels, this is going to be -- have a key role to play, and we're producing that -- or going to be producing that in the key regions and then, of course, the overall transmission.

所以這是一個重要的主題。我們對此有良好的曝險。如果你看我們的產品組合，我們生產達成這些目標所需的所有鋼種。想想Magnelis以及我們其他非常適用於太陽能的產品；想想用於風電的厚板；電工鋼也將——扮演關鍵角色，而我們正在生產——或將在關鍵地區生產這些產品；當然還包括整體的輸電。

So we believe that the demand is going to be interesting. We have the product portfolio to be applied to it. And yes, we just took the opportunity to put some numbers around it.

因此我們相信需求將會很有看頭。我們具備可應用於此的產品組合。而是的，我們只是把握機會用一些數字來加以量化。

And then just the one division that wasn't mentioned on the quarter-on-quarter was the Indian JVs. Just wondering if you could give any color on that into the third quarter and fourth quarter.

另外，剛才在季對季的討論中，有一個事業部門沒有被提到，就是印度的合資企業（JVs）。想請問你們能否就第三季與第四季提供一些看法？

Well, thank you for asking, Cole. So as you can see, the performance in Q2 was strong. So we had record level of shipments, run rate at about 8 million tonnes. So our expectation is for the division to continue to do well in quarter three and quarter four. The focus is, of course, other than continue to run the existing operations on our projects.

好的，謝謝你的提問，Cole。如你所見，第二季的表現很強勁。我們的出貨量創下紀錄水準，年化運行率約為800萬噸。因此我們預期該事業部門在第三季與第四季將持續表現良好。當然，除了持續運行既有營運之外，重點也放在我們的專案上。

As you know, we are doubling the capacity there. That is also progressing. Yes. So I think demand is strong. We continue to see a very strong level of demand. Prices have moved up. They have recovered from the low levels that we saw at the beginning of the year. So I think it's all -- we see good developments there. So we should continue to see strong performance in the second half as well.

如你所知，我們正在把那裡的產能加倍。這項工作也在推進中。是的。所以我認為需求強勁。我們持續看到非常強勁的需求水準。價格已經上升。也已從年初我們看到的低檔水準回升。因此我認為整體而言——我們看到那裡有良好的發展。所以我們在下半年也應該會持續看到強勁的表現。

Great. Thanks, Cole. Genuino, that was our last question. So I'll hand back to you for any closing remarks.

很好。謝謝你，Cole。Genuino，那是我們最後一個問題。所以我把時間交回給你，請你做任何結語。

Thank you, Daniel, and thank you, everyone. Before we close, let me briefly reflect on the key message from today's discussion. First, we are seeing positive momentum across the business with results expected to improve across all segments. Early indicators in Europe are already encouraging, giving us confidence as we enter the second half of 2026 with momentum continuing to build into 2027.

謝謝你，Daniel，也謝謝各位。在結束之前，讓我簡要回顧今天討論的關鍵訊息。第一，我們看到整體業務呈現正向動能，預期所有事業群的業績都將改善。歐洲的早期指標已令人鼓舞，讓我們有信心在進入2026年下半年時，動能將持續累積並延伸至2027年。

Second, we have a differentiated portfolio of strategic growth opportunities and future growth options. We are well positioned to benefit from some of the most important changes that are reshaping the global steel industry. This, in turn, provides a clear pathway to structurally higher earnings and returns through the cycle.

第二，我們擁有具差異化的策略性成長機會組合，以及未來的成長選項。我們已做好準備，可望受惠於正在重塑全球鋼鐵產業的一些最重要變化。而這也為我們提供一條清晰路徑，使我們在景氣循環中實現結構性更高的獲利與報酬。

And finally, we have all the elements in place to continue growing earnings, returns on capital and free cash flow. Structural demand drivers in a more regionalized steel industry creates opportunity. ArcelorMittal's disciplined capital allocation and strategy execution, while maintaining a solid investment-grade balance sheet, provides a strong foundation for future value creation.

最後，我們已具備所有要素，可持續提升獲利、資本報酬率與自由現金流。在更區域化的鋼鐵產業中，結構性需求驅動因素創造了機會。ArcelorMittal嚴謹的資本配置與策略執行，同時維持穩健的投資等級資產負債表，為未來價值創造提供了堅實基礎。

With that, I will close today's call. And if you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Daniel and his team. Thank you again for joining us, and I look forward to speak with you soon. Enjoy the summer, and please stay safe and keep those around you safe as well. Thank you very much.

以上，我將結束今天的電話會議。若你有任何後續問題，請聯繫Daniel及其團隊。再次感謝各位參與，我期待很快能再與各位交流。祝各位夏日愉快，也請注意安全，並確保你周遭的人也同樣安全。非常感謝。