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Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Hello, everyone, and good evening. I'm Shirish Jajodia, Corporate Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations at Strategy. I will be your moderator for strategies 2025 fourth-quarter earnings webinar.
大家好,晚上好。我是 Shirish Jajodia,Strategy 公司的財務主管兼投資者關係主管。我將擔任本次「2025 年第四季收益策略」網路研討會的主持人。
We will start the call with a 60 minutes presentation starting with Andrew Kang followed by Phong Le and then Michael Saylor. This will be followed by a 30 minutes interactive Q&A session with four Wall Street equity analyst and four Bitcoin analysts.
我們將以 60 分鐘的演講開始本次電話會議,首先由 Andrew Kang 進行演講,然後是 Phong Le,最後是 Michael Saylor。接下來將進行 30 分鐘的互動問答環節,屆時將有四位華爾街股票分析師和四位比特幣分析師參與。
Before we proceed, I will read the Safe Harbor statement. Some of the information we provide in this presentation regarding our future expectations, plans, and prospects may constitute forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to various important factors, including fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and the risk factors discussed in our current report on Form 8-K filed with the SEC on October 6, 2025, and under the caption Risk Factors in Strategy's quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC on November 3, 2025, and the risks described in other filings that Strategy may make with the SEC from time to time.
在繼續之前,我將宣讀安全港聲明。本次簡報中有關我們未來預期、計劃和前景的一些資訊可能構成前瞻性陳述。由於各種重要因素,實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明存在重大差異,這些因素包括比特幣價格的波動,以及我們在 2025 年 10 月 6 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格當前報告中討論的風險因素,以及 Strategy 在 2025 年 11 月 3 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的表格 10-Qegy 標題中討論的風險因素(Qegy)可能不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中所述的風險。
We assume no obligations to update these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today.
我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務,這些聲明僅代表截至今日的觀點。
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Andrew Kang, the CFO of Strategy.
接下來,我將把電話交給 Strategy 的財務長 Andrew Kang。
Andrew Kang - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Andrew Kang - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Thank you, Shirish, and thank you everyone for joining our call today. I'll start by touching on a few of our highlights for Q4 as well as for the full year 2025. We closed the year with 713,502 bitcoin on our balance sheet, which represented approximately 3.4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. This reflects continued discipline around Bitcoin accumulation through the fourth quarter and further reinforces our position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world.
謝謝Shirish,也謝謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。首先,我將重點介紹我們第四季以及 2025 年全年的一些亮點。年底時,我們的資產負債表上共有 713,502 枚比特幣,約佔比特幣總量的 3.4%。這反映了我們在第四季度對比特幣累積的持續自律,並進一步鞏固了我們作為全球最大企業比特幣持有者的地位。
Also during 2025, we successfully raised over $25 billion of total capital funding growth across our treasury strategy and expanding our product ecosystem. We now have five listed preferred equity securities, which has broadened investor access across yield, duration, and risk profile. Our execution throughout the year puts us in a position to enter 2026 with a stronger balance sheet, more access to liquidity, and upside when hopefully, Bitcoin price rallies soon.
此外,在 2025 年,我們成功籌集了超過 250 億美元的資金,用於我們的財務策略和擴展我們的產品生態系統。我們現在有五種上市優先股證券,這拓寬了投資者在收益率、期限和風險狀況方面的投資管道。我們全年的執行情況使我們有能力在 2026 年擁有更強勁的資產負債表、更多的流動性,並且預計在比特幣價格很快上漲時獲得更大的收益。
Next slide. 2025 overall was a very important year, with several strategic corporate events that I think strengthened our foundation as the world's leading Bitcoin treasury company. We adopted fair value accounting at the beginning of the year, which provided greater investor and market transparency of our Bitcoin holdings, which are now, as you know, marked to market each quarter. Second Treasury and IRS guidance confirmed that unrealized Bitcoin gains would not be subject to additional corporate alternative minimum tax.
下一張投影片。總的來說,2025 年是非常重要的一年,我們舉辦了幾項具有戰略意義的企業活動,我認為這些活動鞏固了我們作為世界領先的比特幣金庫公司的地位。今年年初我們採用了公允價值會計方法,這提高了投資者和市場對我們比特幣持有量的透明度,正如您所知,這些比特幣現在每個季度都會按市值計價。第二份財政部和國稅局的指導意見確認,未實現的比特幣收益將不會受到額外的企業替代最低稅的約束。
We also received the first-ever credit rating for a Bitcoin treasury company, which marked an important step, I think, in institutional recognition and setting the foundation for future progress.
我們還獲得了比特幣金庫公司有史以來的第一個信用評級,我認為這標誌著我們在獲得機構認可和為未來發展奠定基礎方面邁出了重要一步。
And lastly, in Q4 we established a $2.25 billion cash reserves, which provides over 2.5 years of dividend coverage. This is an important enhancement to our overall risk management framework and supports our ability to meet our interest and dividend obligations through market cycles like the one we are seeing today.
最後,我們在第四季建立了 22.5 億美元的現金儲備,可提供超過 2.5 年的股息保障。這是對我們整體風險管理框架的重要改進,有助於我們在像今天這樣的市場週期中履行我們的利息和股息義務。
And lastly, MSCI confirmed that digital asset treasury companies will remain eligible for inclusion in its global market indices, which we believe was the appropriate outcome. And I'll touch a little bit more about that later on in my presentation.
最後,MSCI 確認數位資產財資公司仍有資格納入其全球市場指數,我們認為這是一個恰當的結果。我稍後會在演講中更詳細地談到這一點。
Next slide. Thank you. Turning to our Q4 financial results, we reported an operating loss of $17.4 billion and a net loss of $12.6 billion. These results were obviously driven by the quarter-end decline in Bitcoins fair value under our mark to market accounting.
下一張投影片。謝謝。再來看我們第四季的財務業績,我們報告的營業虧損為 174 億美元,淨虧損為 126 億美元。這些結果顯然是比特幣以市值計價的會計方法計算出的季度末公允價值下降所導致的。
Next slide. For the full year, we reported an operating loss of $5.4 billion and a net loss of $4.2 billion. We updated our target range for the full year 2025 precisely because our results are highly dependent on Bitcoin price and can move meaningfully based on market conditions. It's important to call out that our full-year results were within our target guidance based on where Bitcoin price ended the year.
下一張投影片。全年來看,我們報告的營業虧損為 54 億美元,淨虧損為 42 億美元。我們更新了 2025 年全年的目標範圍,正是因為我們的業績高度依賴比特幣價格,並且會根據市場狀況而顯著變化。值得一提的是,根據比特幣年底的價格,我們的全年業績符合預期目標。
And while accounting outcomes may fluctuate quarter to quarter, our long-term focus remains unchanged. We are committed to increasing Bitcoin per share in building durable shareholder value over the long term.
儘管會計結果可能每個季度都有波動,但我們的長期關注點始終不變。我們致力於提高每股比特幣價值,從而在長期內創造持久的股東價值。
Next slide. Turning to our Bitcoin KPI performance for the full year. At the start of the year, we established clear KPI targets tied to Bitcoin per share growth, while recognizing a wide range of possible Bitcoin price outcomes.
下一張投影片。接下來來看看我們全年的比特幣KPI表現。年初,我們制定了與比特幣每股成長相關的明確KPI目標,同時也意識到比特幣價格可能會出現各種不同的結果。
Under those conditions, we delivered a BTC yield of 22.8% for the year, beating the lower end of our target range, which was set at 22% to 26%. That translated into a total BTC gain of 101,873 bitcoin and a BTC dollar gain of $8.9 billion, also beating the lower end of our target range. I think the key takeaway is that even with significant volatility in Bitcoin price, our strategy remained disciplined, and we executed against our KPIs of increasing Bitcoin per share and compounding shareholder value for the long term.
在這種情況下,我們實現了 22.8% 的 BTC 年收益率,超過了我們設定的 22% 至 26% 的目標範圍的下限。這轉化為比特幣總收益 101,873 個,比特幣美元收益 89 億美元,也超過了我們目標範圍的下限。我認為關鍵在於,即使比特幣價格波動劇烈,我們的策略仍然嚴謹,我們也實現了提高每股比特幣價值和長期提升股東價值的關鍵績效指標。
Next slide. Since adopting Bitcoin as our treasury asset in 2020, we've consistently added Bitcoin per share each year. 2025 was yet another strong year in this regard. And building on the momentum of prior years and demonstrating our ability to add more Bitcoin per share in both good markets and in challenging ones as well, our focus remains unchanged. As I mentioned before, our goal is to systematically increase Bitcoin per share over time, regardless of near term market cycles and continue to deliver durable BTC value for our long-term investors.
下一張投影片。自從2020年將比特幣納入我們的資產配置以來,我們每年都持續增加每股比特幣的持有量。 2025年在這方面又是個強勁成長的年份。憑藉著前幾年的發展勢頭,以及在市場行情好壞的情況下都能增加每股比特幣數量的能力,我們的重點依然不變。正如我之前提到的,我們的目標是隨著時間的推移系統性地提高每股比特幣的價值,不受短期市場週期的影響,並繼續為我們的長期投資者帶來持久的比特幣價值。
Next slide. One more, thank you. Now, turning to the balance sheet, we'll start at the top here. Our digital assets increased from $23.9 billion at the end of 2024 to $58.9 billion at the end of 2025. This was due to a $17.9 billion increase in fair value at the beginning of the year balance as well as the fair value of the Bitcoin we added in 2025. As a result, we ended the year with also $2.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Of which, as I mentioned earlier, $2.25 billion of that represents our USD cash reserve.
下一張投影片。再來一次,謝謝。現在,我們來看資產負債表,從頂部開始。我們的數位資產從 2024 年底的 239 億美元增加到 2025 年底的 589 億美元。這是由於年初帳面公允價值增加了 179 億美元,以及我們在 2025 年新增的比特幣的公允價值。因此,到年底我們持有的現金及現金等價物為 23 億美元。正如我之前提到的,其中 22.5 億美元是我們的美元現金儲備。
As of the end of 2025, we now carry also a $1.9 billion deferred tax liability, which just reflects the accounting difference between the market value and the cost basis of our Bitcoin. I'll remind everyone this is a balance sheet item. It is not a cash tax obligation and it does change quarter to quarter with the price of Bitcoin.
截至 2025 年底,我們也背負著 19 億美元的遞延所得稅負債,這只反映了我們比特幣的市場價值與成本基礎之間的會計差異。我提醒大家,這是資產負債表上的一個項目。這不是現金稅款,會隨著比特幣價格的季度波動而改變。
Moving -- can you go back, please? In terms of long-term debt, we ended the year at $8.2 billion, which takes into account a new convertible bond as well as an equalization of a prior convert, which we executed both in early 2025. As we said before, we do not plan to issue any new convertible debt in the future and we'll focus on assessing strategic liability management opportunities to the extent market conditions make sense. And overtime, we intend to reduce our leverage to further enhance our credit profile.
搬家-你能回去嗎?就長期債務而言,我們年底的債務總額為 82 億美元,其中包括我們在 2025 年初發行的新可轉換債券以及對先前可轉換債券的等額化。正如我們之前所說,我們未來不打算發行任何新的可轉換債券,我們將專注於評估策略負債管理機會,並在市場條件允許的情況下採取行動。隨著時間的推移,我們計劃降低槓桿率,以進一步提升我們的信用狀況。
We also added $6.9 billion of preferred equity, diversifying our capital raising channels, and as a result, total equity including both preferred and common rose to $51.1 billion at the end of the year, up from $22.8 billion a year ago. We added $6.9 billion of preferreds through five distinct IPOs, as well as subsequent ATM activity. And our common equity increased to $44.2 billion through our ATM. We deployed all that capital in an accretive manner to acquire more Bitcoin.
我們還增加了 69 億美元的優先股,使我們的融資管道多樣化,因此,截至年底,包括優先股和普通股在內的總權益增至 511 億美元,高於一年前的 228 億美元。我們透過五次不同的 IPO 以及隨後的 ATM 活動,增加了 69 億美元的優先股。透過我們的自動櫃員機,我們的普通股淨值增加到 442 億美元。我們將所有資金以增值方式投入使用,以獲得更多比特幣。
As I mentioned before, we delivered 22.8% BTC yield, and we established the cash reserve. I'd say the year-over-year growth of our capital base strengthens our balance sheet and provides more a more durable base to continue raising capital efficiently and acquiring more Bitcoin over the long term.
正如我之前提到的,我們實現了 22.8% 的比特幣收益率,並建立了現金儲備。我認為,我們資本基礎的逐年增長增強了我們的資產負債表,並為我們長期有效地籌集資金和獲取更多比特幣提供了更持久的基礎。
All right. Next slide. At the end of Q3 -- sorry at end of Q4 -- sorry, at the end of Q3, the market value of our Bitcoin position was approximately $73.2 billion. That was based on a Bitcoin price of about $114,000. During Q4, Bitcoin, as we all know, experienced a price decline which drove the total unrealized fair value loss of $17.4 billion. Quarter to quarter moves like this can be sharp, can also be unsettling, but it's important to emphasize that our strategy is built for the long term. It's built to withstand short-term price volatility. Even short-term extreme conditions like we're seeing today and importantly, even in a volatile environment, we continue to execute. We purchased an additional 32,470 bitcoin in Q4 for approximately $3.1 billion.
好的。下一張投影片。第三季末——抱歉,是第四季末——抱歉,是第三季末,我們持有的比特幣市值約為 732 億美元。這是基於比特幣價格約為 114,000 美元計算的。眾所周知,比特幣在第四季度經歷了價格下跌,導致未實現公允價值總損失達 174 億美元。像這樣的季度間波動可能會很劇烈,也可能令人不安,但重要的是要強調,我們的策略是為長期發展而製定的。它旨在抵禦短期價格波動。即使是像今天這樣短期的極端情況,更重要的是,即使在動盪的環境中,我們也會繼續執行。我們在第四季額外購買了 32,470 枚比特幣,價值約 31 億美元。
Next slide. For the full year 2025, the market value of our Bitcoin holdings increased by approximately $17 billion from $41.8 billion at the end of 2024 to $58.9 billion at the end of 2025. And during the year, we added approximately 225,000 bitcoin. We also recognized and unrealized fair value loss of about $5.4 billion across the year, but we significantly expanded our Bitcoin position, right. We increased our total holdings from 447,000 bitcoin to 672,500 bitcoin for the year.
下一張投影片。2025 年全年,我們持有的比特幣市值從 2024 年底的 418 億美元增加到 2025 年底的 589 億美元,增幅約為 170 億美元。年內,我們新增了約 225,000 個比特幣。我們也確認了全年約 54 億美元的未實現公允價值損失,但我們大幅增加了比特幣的持倉,對吧。今年,我們的比特幣總持有量從 447,000 枚增加到 672,500 枚。
Next slide. Our total interest and dividend obligations are now $888 million, which is made up of about $35 million in interest on our converts. That represents an average cost of about 42 basis points. It's also made up of $713 million in dividend obligations from our cumulative preferreds, an additional $140 million related to our non-cumulative preferreds. You can see it here at the bottom our cash reserve of $2.25 billion which was established in Q4 now provides over 2.5 years of interest and dividend coverage and it's an important and direct benefit to our debt and credit investors.
下一張投影片。我們目前的利息和股息負債總額為 8.88 億美元,其中包括約 3500 萬美元的可轉換債券利息。這相當於平均成本約為 42 個基點。其中還包括來自我們累積優先股的 7.13 億美元股息義務,以及與我們的非累積優先股相關的 1.4 億美元額外義務。您可以看到,我們在第四季度建立的 22.5 億美元現金儲備,現在可以提供超過 2.5 年的利息和股息覆蓋,這對我們的債務和信貸投資者來說是一個重要而直接的好處。
Next slide. And lastly, in October, MSCI opened a public comment period around the proposal that could have excluded companies whose digital asset holdings represented more than 50% of total assets. We felt it was important for us to be a voice on this matter, and we submitted formal written feedback to MSCI. We noted that this threshold would, in our opinion, be discriminatory towards digital assets. It's arbitrary. And in many ways, I think the proposal was unworkable and that it rested on a mischaracterization of strategy. As a result, MSCI determined not to implement their initial proposal, and as a result, we have not been excluded from MSCI's indices.
下一張投影片。最後,在 10 月份,MSCI 就該提案開啟了公眾意見徵詢期,該提案可能會將數位資產持有量佔總資產 50% 以上的公司排除在外。我們認為在這個問題上發表意見很重要,因此我們向 MSCI 提交了正式的書面回饋。我們注意到,我們認為這項門檻對數位資產具有歧視性。這是任意的。在很多方面,我認為該提議是不可行的,而且它建立在對策略的錯誤解讀之上。因此,MSCI 決定不實施其最初的提議,因此,我們沒有被排除在 MSCI 指數之外。
I've note Strategy is an operating company. We have 30-plus years of history and software and tech. We have 1,500 employees last year. In 2025, we generated $477 million in annual. And while our Bitcoin holdings has grown significantly from a balance sheet perspective, we are an operating company with a treasury balance sheet built upon a commodity.
我注意到 Strategy 是一家營運公司。我們擁有超過30年的歷史、軟體和技術經驗。我們去年有1500名員工。2025年,我們每年創造了4.77億美元的收入。雖然從資產負債表的角度來看,我們的比特幣持有量已經大幅成長,但我們是一家營運公司,其資金資產負債表是建立在商品基礎上的。
And lastly, look on a final note, I just want to say thank you. We appreciate the strong support we received from both active and passive retail and institutional investors, regulators, and policymakers, all in support of our efforts on index inclusion. We thank you for that. I think there's still some more work to be done and we look forward to working with the industry in the coming year on that as well.
最後,我想說聲謝謝。我們感謝來自主動型和被動型零售投資者、機構投資者、監管機構和政策制定者的大力支持,他們都支持我們為將股票納入指數所做的努力。我們對此表示感謝。我認為還有一些工作要做,我們也期待在未來一年與業界就此展開合作。
So with that, I will turn over to Phong, our CEO. Thank you.
那麼,接下來我將把麥克風交給我們的執行長 Phong。謝謝。
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Andrew. First, I just want to acknowledge I understand the market conditions for today's call is challenging and the fact that we have thousands of people watching this as a testament to your intellect, your curiosity, and for many of you, your conviction. So thanks everyone for joining us today.
謝謝你,安德魯。首先,我想承認,我理解今天市場環境充滿挑戰,成千上萬的人觀看這次電話會議,這證明了你們的智慧、好奇心,以及對你們中的許多人來說,你們的信念。感謝各位今天收看我們的節目。
I also want to share look some of you bought Bitcoin or MSTR in the last year. This is your first downturn. My advice is to hold on. Remember the fundamentals that cause you to buy Bitcoin. It's because Bitcoin is the digital transformation of capital or maybe it's because it's the hardest and most ethical form of money or because you believe in a non-sovereign, sensor resistant store of value.
我還想分享一下,看看你們當中有些人去年買了比特幣或MSTR。這是你第一次遭遇經濟低迷。我的建議是堅持下去。記得促使你購買比特幣的基本因素。或許是因為比特幣代表了資本的數位轉型,又或許是因為它是最難取得、最符合道德規範的貨幣形式,也或許是因為你相信一種非主權、抗感測器的價值儲存手段。
None of these fundamentals have changed. They didn't changed in the last year. They haven't changed in the last 18 years. For the MicroStrategy shareholders and the Strategy shareholders now remember the fundamentals of why you bought into MSTR common. Because we are levered and amplified Bitcoin, we're built to outperform Bitcoin over the long run.
這些基本原則都沒有改變。過去一年他們沒有任何變化。過去18年裡,他們沒有任何改變。對於 MicroStrategy 股東和 Strategy 股東來說,現在請記住你們當初購買 MSTR 普通股的基本原因。因為我們使用的是槓桿放大後的比特幣,所以我們注定會在長期內跑贏比特幣。
It could be because you see us as digital innovators. We invented the enterprise, business intelligence software space in the 1990s, and we invented digital treasury companies in 2020. Or it's because you believe in the management team that's here today. None of that's changed in the last year.
這可能是因為你們把我們視為數位創新者。我們在 20 世紀 90 年代開創了企業商業智慧軟體領域,並在 2020 年開創了數位財務公司。或許是因為你相信現在的管理團隊。過去一年裡,這些情況都沒有改變。
And for those of you who have been with us on this journey since 2020, you've seen other periods of Bitcoin and MSTR downturns, and you held on, and you were rewarded for your conviction, so thank you. And perhaps I ask that you share your wisdom and your confidence with those who are newer to the Community's. X is a great place to do this. In person is a great place to do this, and a great opportunity to get together in person.
對於自 2020 年以來一直陪伴我們走過這段旅程的各位,你們經歷了比特幣和 MSTR 的其他低迷時期,你們堅持了下來,你們的信念也得到了回報,所以非常感謝你們。或許我也想請您與社群新成員分享您的智慧和信心。X 是個做這件事的好地方。面對面交流是實現這一目標的絕佳方式,也是大家面對面聚會的絕佳機會。
Next slide, please, as Bitcoin for corporations, we will have our 6th Annual Bitcoin for Corporations in Las Vegas in three weeks, February 23 through 26. Love to see you there. It's a great place to get together and learn about Bitcoin, Bitcoin treasury companies, digital credit, digital capital, and digital money. And it's also a great place to see our software business in action. And as Andrew mentioned, our software business constitutes 1,500 employees and over 3,000 customers. And they'll be there, showcasing the transformation of intelligence and the intersection of AI and BI.
請看下一張投影片,作為企業導向的比特幣,我們將在三週後的2月23日至26日在拉斯維加斯舉辦第六屆年度企業的比特幣大會。真希望能在那裡見到你。這裡是大家聚在一起學習比特幣、比特幣金庫公司、數位信貸、數位資本和數位貨幣的好地方。這裡也是了解我們軟體業務實際運作的好地方。正如安德魯所提到的,我們的軟體業務擁有 1500 名員工和 3000 多名客戶。他們將親臨現場,展示智慧的轉型以及人工智慧和商業智慧的交匯點。
And I would like to know, we had a great year last year in our software business. We saw a big cloud transition as our revenue went from decline to increase at 3%. And our cloud revenue went up 65% year over year. So I invite you all to join us in Las Vegas February 23 through 26.
我想知道,去年我們的軟體業務取得了巨大的成功。我們經歷了巨大的雲端轉型,營收也從下降轉為成長,成長 3%。我們的雲端收入年增了 65%。所以我邀請大家於2月23日至26日與我們一起在拉斯維加斯相聚。
Next slide. Take a step back. This is our business. We have been buying and holding Bitcoins since the third quarter of 2020, every single quarter. We now have 713,502 bitcoin, with the total acquisition cost of $54 billion and a $76,000 average Bitcoin purchase price. Recognizing now that Bitcoin is below the average Bitcoin price, you might ask the question, what does that mean? It really doesn't mean anything, right? It doesn't mean that we have any issues servicing our debt or paying the dividends on our preferreds. We don't have any covenants or triggers that say when Bitcoin price goes below our average Bitcoin purchase price that anything has to occur other than we continue with our strategy.
下一張投影片。後退一步。這是我們的業務。自 2020 年第三季以來,我們每個季度都在買入並持有比特幣。我們現在擁有 713,502 個比特幣,總獲取成本為 540 億美元,平均比特幣購買價格為 76,000 美元。既然現在比特幣的價格低於平均價格,你可能會問,這代表什麼?其實這根本沒什麼意義,對吧?但這並不意味著我們在償還債務或支付優先股股息方面有任何問題。我們沒有任何契約或觸發條件規定,當比特幣價格低於我們的平均比特幣購買價格時,除了我們繼續執行我們的策略之外,必須發生任何事情。
Next slide. 2025, as Andrew mentioned, was a pretty big year for us in the capital markets. As you see here in 2024, we raised $22.6 billion, and we actually outstripped that number in 2025. The big change last year was we moved from convertible debt $6.2 billion in '24 and $2 billion in '25. The $7 billion are preferred. We invented digital credit, and we invented the preferred market, which now other Bitcoin treasury companies are moving into issuing perpetual preferreds. We're pretty excited about this. You'll see here we had five IPOs.
下一張投影片。正如安德魯所提到的,2025年對我們來說是資本市場非常重要的一年。正如你所看到的,2024 年我們籌集了 226 億美元,而 2025 年我們實際上超過了這個數字。去年最大的變化是,我們把2024年的可轉換債券發行量從62億美元減少到2025年的20億美元。70億美元是首選方案。我們發明了數位信用,也發明了優先股市場,現在其他比特幣財資公司正朝著發行永續優先股的方向發展。我們對此感到非常興奮。你會看到我們這裡有五家公司進行了首次公開發行(IPO)。
The other thing I'll note here is that year-to-date 2026, in the face of a tougher Bitcoin market, we were able to in one month raise an additional $3.9 billion of capital and for the most part, buy Bitcoin with that.
我還要指出一點,2026 年至今,儘管比特幣市場情況嚴峻,我們仍然在一個月內籌集了額外的 39 億美元資金,並且大部分資金都用於購買比特幣。
Next slide. So what are those big numbers mean? How do you think about that? In 2024, we were the largest US issuer of equity in the entire country. Last year, 2025, we were once again the largest issuer of equity. We were 8% of the entire equity capital markets, 6% to the common equity market, and 33% of the preferred equity market. We are getting people to invest in our company through equity raises and preferred raises and turn that into Bitcoin, Bitcoin per share, and Bitcoin yield to our shareholders. And we're doing it with the intersection of traditional finance of some of the largest banking partners in the world, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Moelis, TD, Benchmark, Clear Street have all been participants in these markets, and they give us distribution out to wealth management and to retail and to institutions. So we've been very successful in the last year with continuing our strategy.
下一張投影片。那麼,這些大數字意味著什麼呢?你對此有何看法?2024年,我們是美國全國最大的股票發行商。去年,也就是 2025 年,我們再次成為最大的股權發行人。我們佔整個股權資本市場的 8%,佔普通股市場的 6%,佔優先股市場的 33%。我們正在透過股權融資和優先股融資吸引人們投資我們公司,並將這些投資轉化為比特幣、每股比特幣以及為股東帶來的比特幣收益。我們正在與世界上一些最大的銀行合作夥伴——摩根士丹利、巴克萊銀行、Moelis、TD、Benchmark、Clear Street——的傳統金融領域合作,這些合作夥伴都參與了這些市場,他們為我們提供了財富管理、零售和機構分銷管道。因此,過去一年我們繼續執行既定策略,並且取得了巨大成功。
Next slide. You'll see here in addition to getting folks to participate in our equity raises and our equity capital markets, we continue to add more and more research analyst. Here, you can see price targets and you can see they all have buy ratings on Strategy.
下一張投影片。你會發現,除了讓人們參與我們的股權融資和股權資本市場之外,我們還在增加研究分析師的數量。在這裡,你可以看到價格目標,並且可以看到它們在 Strategy 上都獲得了買入評級。
Next slide. So let me talk about digital credit and what are we doing in digital credit and why digital credit is important.
下一張投影片。那麼,讓我來談談數位信貸,以及我們在數位信貸領域正在做些什麼,以及為什麼數位信貸如此重要。
Next slide. First, I mentioned 2025 marked the launch of digital credit, and we launched five different instruments. We started with Strike, which is convertible digital credit, and it was really a gateway from convertible debt which we no longer are issuing to a convertible preferred note. We then launched Strife, which was our most senior of our instruments, the first fixed perpetual digital credit instrument. And after that, we launched our most junior ones, Stride. And as you can see, the size gets bigger and bigger with each one. And then we launched the most important which was Stretch, which is $2.5 billion in our first digital credit instrument.
下一張投影片。首先,我提到 2025 年標誌著數位信貸的推出,我們推出了五種不同的工具。我們最初推出了 Strike,這是一種可轉換數位信用,它實際上是從我們不再發行的可轉換債券過渡到可轉換優先票據的途徑。隨後我們推出了 Strife,這是我們最高級的工具,也是第一個固定永續數位信用工具。之後,我們推出了低齡兒童的Stride品牌。正如你所看到的,每一件的尺寸都越來越大。然後我們推出了最重要的產品 Stretch,這是我們首個數位信貸工具,規模達 25 億美元。
And then in November, we went to the euro market and launched Stream, which is USD717 million and the importance of this is accessing a European market and those who want euro exposure. Our plan with Stream is to overtime uplist it into a regulated retail accessible market, and we're excited to do that over the course of this year.
然後,在 11 月,我們進軍歐元市場,推出了 Stream,規模達 7.17 億美元。此舉的重要性在於進入歐洲市場,滿足那些希望投資歐元區的人的需求。我們與 Stream 的計劃是逐步將其推向受監管的零售市場,我們很高興能在今年內實現這一目標。
Next slide. Here's the overview of digital credit. I think the most notable here is to look at as an example of the liquidity that we're experiencing in Stretch, $118 million traded a day over the last 30 days. As a comparison, typical US based prefers trade $1 million a day. These are very liquid and very interesting instruments. The dividend at 11.25% and a tax equivalent basis 18%. And you also see the volatility here at 7%. So it's an instrument where we've been able to start to target a very finite price close to $100 and drive that volatility down to 7%.
下一張投影片。以下是數位信用的概述。我認為最值得注意的例子是,Stretch 的流動性在過去 30 天內每天的交易額達到 1.18 億美元。相較之下,典型的美國企業每天更喜歡進行價值 100 萬美元的交易。這些儀器非常靈活,也很有趣。股息率為 11.25%,稅收等效基準為 18%。而且您還可以看到這裡的波動率為 7%。因此,我們已經能夠將目標價格設定在接近 100 美元的非常具體的水平,並將波動性降低到 7%。
Let's go to the next slide. So what is 2025, the third quarter, and the rest of 2026 been about? It's really been about seasoning our digital credit. And by seasoning, I mean, maturing the market and making the instrument more creditworthy. So it went -- after we launched Stretch in July 25, there are a couple actions we took that made the credit more creditworthy and a better investment first and Andrew mentioned it, the CAMT guidance was a big deal. This is a big change by Treasury and IRS acknowledging the importance of the digital asset ecosystem and that there should be no unrealized capital gains taxes on Bitcoin. Period.
我們來看下一張投影片。那麼,2025 年第三季以及 2026 年剩餘時間都在討論些什麼呢?這其實就是在提升我們的數位信用水準。所謂“熟成”,我的意思是讓市場成熟,使該工具更具信譽。事情就是這樣——在 7 月 25 日我們推出 Stretch 之後,我們採取了一些措施,使信貸更具信譽,成為更好的投資,正如 Andrew 所提到的,CAMT 指導意義重大。這是財政部和國稅局的重大變革,表明他們承認了數位資產生態系統的重要性,並且不應該對比特幣徵收未實現資本利得稅。時期。
The second thing is we got an S&P rating at B- issuer credit rating, which is a starting point for us to be able to access different types of investors in the credit mark.
第二件事是,我們獲得了標普 B- 發行人信用評級,這為我們接觸不同類型的信用市場投資者奠定了基礎。
November 4, we got to what really was our target was to get Stretched to trade at par $100 for the first time. $100 is important because it decreases the volatility instrument. It shows that we're able to do something that no other preferred instrument has done its past, which is to target a specific price and it allows us to raise more via our ATM. And then we added our US dollar reserve. At the same time since we launched Stretch, we have added 105,732 bitcoin to our balance sheet. That's about 16% more. These are all actions we took to make our digital credit stronger over time.
11月4日,我們終於達成了最初的目標,讓Stretched的價格首次達到100美元的平價。 100美元之所以重要,是因為它能降低該工具的波動性。這表明我們能夠做到其他任何首選工具過去都無法做到的事情,那就是設定一個特定的價格目標,這使我們能夠透過我們的 ATM 籌集更多資金。然後我們又加入了美元儲備。同時,自從我們推出 Stretch 以來,我們的資產負債表上增加了 105,732 個比特幣。那大約多了16%。這些都是我們為逐步增強我們的數位信用所採取的措施。
Next slide. So what is Stretch? Why are we so enamored and excited about Stretch? Why did I say 2026 is the coming out party for Stretch? Stretch is one of the most attractive instruments and securities in the market today. It pays an 11% effective yield, 18% on a tax equivalent basis. We've paid monthly dividends on time, on schedule, and we have said that we expect the return of capital treatment for the next 10 years. We'll run our business to be able to give everybody tax deferred earnings for the next 10 years.
下一張投影片。那麼,什麼是拉伸?我們為什麼如此迷戀和興奮於 Stretch?我為什麼說 2026 年是 Stretch 的亮相之年?Stretch是目前市場上最具吸引力的工具和證券之一。其實際收益率為 11%,以稅收等效基準計算為 18%。我們按時按計劃支付了每月股息,並且我們曾表示,我們預計未來 10 年將恢復資本待遇。我們將以這樣的方式經營業務,以便在未來 10 年內為所有人提供延稅收益。
We're targeting $100 price, the volatility 7% is actually decreased recently to 6%, and we have mechanisms above and below that price to keep the price stable is quite a bit of fee to financial engineering, and it's extremely over collateralized after you take out all instruments that are senior to Stretch. We still have 5.6x collateral over Stretch, and so it's an over collateralized instrument.
我們的目標是 100 美元,波動率從 7% 降至最近 6%,我們在該價格之上和之下都有機制來保持價格穩定,這需要大量的金融工程費用,而且在扣除所有優先於 Stretch 的工具後,抵押品嚴重超額。我們仍然擁有 5.6 倍於 Stretch 的抵押品,因此這是一個超額抵押的工具。
And then after that, we've added $2.25 billion of US dollar reserves. So we have two to three years of dividend coverage. And I'd mentioned the liquidity of Stretch trading extremely well, is Nasdaq listed. It has a four-letter ticker, is easily accessible to folks. It's now accessible in Robinhood and CashApp, and pretty much anywhere else that you can buy a security.
之後,我們又增加了22.5億美元的美元儲備。因此,我們有兩到三年的股利保障。我之前提到過,Stretch 的流動性非常好,而且它在納斯達克上市。它的股票代碼只有四個字母,很容易被人們取得。現在可以在 Robinhood 和 CashApp 上購買,幾乎在任何可以購買證券的地方都可以購買。
Next slide. So let's talk about our balance sheet. I've seen a lot of questions. We get them from investors, we get them from shareholders, we get them from people on X. What's going on with Strategy's balance sheet? Are you worried that when Bitcoin price drops that you are going to have issues with your convertible bonds? Are you going to have issues paying your dividends or going to have to sell Bitcoin? The short answer is I'm not worried. We're not worried. And no, we're not having issues.
下一張投影片。那我們來談談資產負債表吧。我看到了很多問題。我們從投資者那裡獲得資金,我們從股東那裡獲得資金,我們從X平台上的其他人那裡獲得資金。 Strategy公司的資產負債表現在的情況如何?您是否擔心比特幣價格下跌時,您的可轉換債券會出現問題?你們會面臨支付股息的問題,還是必須出售比特幣?簡而言之,我並不擔心。我們並不擔心。不,我們沒有遇到任何問題。
What's the reason? One, we have BTC reserve that $60 billion. This was as of last Friday. Now, it's $45 billion. And our equity, our enterprise value still trades above our Bitcoin reserve. Our convertible debt, that's the notes that come due or preferred equity doesn't come due, is that about 10% leverage for the latest Bitcoin price as of today. We still have about 13% leverage. So the $8.2 billion that come due is 13% level.
原因是什麼?第一,我們有價值 600 億美元的比特幣儲備。這是截至上週五的情況。現在是450億美元。我們的股權和企業價值仍然高於我們的比特幣儲備。我們的可轉換債券(即到期債券或優先股,而優先股不會到期)以今天的比特幣最新價格計算,槓桿率約為 10%。我們仍有約13%的槓桿率。因此,到期的 82 億美元相當於 13% 的水平。
How do you think about 13% leverage? Those who do not spend a lot of time in the debt world, you might say wow, 13% sounds like a lot. Let me show you how we compare at 13% to the S&P 500 universe.
你覺得13%的槓桿率怎麼樣?那些不常接觸債務領域的人可能會說,哇,13%聽起來很多。讓我來向您展示一下,我們的收益率(13%)與標普500指數相比如何。
Next slide. First thing is when you take your leverage, you take out the cash that we have. So our net debt is $6 billion. As I mentioned, our net leverage is 10% and it's 13% were the most recent Bitcoin price. If you look on the bottom left-hand side, this is how we compare it to the S&P 500 universe, right? We have 10% currently, 13% leverage.
下一張投影片。首先,當你利用槓桿時,你要拿出我們現有的現金。因此,我們的淨債務為60億美元。正如我之前提到的,我們的淨槓桿率為 10%,而根據最近的比特幣價格計算,淨槓桿率為 13%。如果你看一下左下角,這就是我們將其與標普500指數進行比較的方式,對吧?我們目前持股比例為10%,槓桿率為13%。
If you're a AAA rated investment-grade company, your bonds are trading as AAA rated, you have 23% leverage. If you're BBB rated high yield, you have 32% leverage. We have of half the leverage of investment grade company, a third of the leverage of the high-yield company.
如果你是AAA級投資級公司,你的債券也是以AAA級交易,那麼你的槓桿率為23%。如果你的債券評級為 BBB 高收益債券,你的槓桿率為 32%。我們的槓桿率只有投資等級公司的一半,高收益公司的三分之一。
How about looking at it by sector? Strategy at 13%, but it looks like a tech company which is low capital, low assets, high income. They're levered at about 15.7%. Compare us to asset heavy, high debt companies and industries, utilities, or real estate. They're levered at 42% to 48%. We are not a highly levered company.
不妨按產業來看?策略收益率為 13%,但看起來像是一家低資本、低資產、高收入的科技公司。它們的槓桿率約為 15.7%。將我們與資產密集、高負債的公司和產業、公用事業或房地產進行比較。它們的槓桿率在 42% 到 48% 之間。我們不是一家高槓桿公司。
Next slide. What about our convertible debt? Not very highly leveraged, so that's good. But what happens when our convertible debt comes due over the next five or six years? Are we worried that we're not going to be able to pay back our convertibles? No, not really. You see here the net debt is $6 billion compared to a Bitcoin reserve of $59 billion, now $45 billion.
下一張投影片。我們的可轉換債券怎麼辦?槓桿率不高,很好。但是,當我們的可轉換債券在未來五、六年內到期時會發生什麼事呢?我們是否擔心無法償還敞篷車的貸款?不,其實不是。您可以看到,淨債務為 60 億美元,而比特幣儲備為 590 億美元,現在為 450 億美元。
In the extreme downside, if we were to have a 90% decline in Bitcoin price and the price was $8,000, which I still think is pretty hard to imagine, that is the point at which our Bitcoin reserve equals our net debt and we will not be able to then pay off of our convertibles using our Bitcoin reserve, and we'd either look at restructuring, issuing additional equity, issuing an additional debt. And let me remind you this is over the course of the next five years. So I'm not really worried at this point in time, even with Bitcoin drops that we're not going to be able to service or convertible debt.
在極端不利的情況下,如果比特幣價格下跌 90%,跌至 8000 美元(我認為這仍然很難想像),那麼我們的比特幣儲備將等於我們的淨債務,我們將無法使用比特幣儲備償還可轉換債券,屆時我們將考慮重組、發行額外股票或發行額外債務。請記住,這指的是未來五年內的情況。所以,即使比特幣價格下跌,我目前也不擔心我們無法償還或轉換債務。
All that said, it's staggered over time. We have put days between 2027 and 2032, and our plan is to equitize that over time. And if we're not able to equitize it, we'll find different ways to restructure the debt.
儘管如此,這個過程是分階段進行的。我們已經確定了 2027 年至 2032 年之間的日期,我們的計劃是隨著時間的推移逐步實現公平分配。如果無法實現股權化,我們將尋找其他方式來重組債務。
Next slide. Of course, we have this Bitcoin reserve, and what does it really do for us? It creates long-term durability. That's why we've been building it up, that's why we've added about 16% over the last nine months to our Bitcoin reserve. It gives us long-term durability to issue more credit ultimately. And as we issue our credit, the dividends will rise.
下一張投影片。當然,我們有比特幣儲備,但它究竟能為我們帶來什麼好處呢?它具有長期耐用性。這就是我們一直在增加比特幣儲備的原因,也是我們在過去九個月將比特幣儲備增加了約 16% 的原因。它賦予我們長期的可持續性,最終使我們能夠發放更多信貸。隨著我們發放信貸,股利也會增加。
Dividends, as Andrew explained, $888 million. We have 67 years of dividend coverage with our Bitcoin reserve. If Bitcoin goes up 1.5% a year, that's our breakeven ARR. We could just sell the incremental Bitcoin that we get, not that that's what we'll do to pay our dividends. So we don't need a large increase in Bitcoin price to be able to service our dividends primarily through Stretch.
正如安德魯解釋的那樣,股息為 8.88 億美元。我們的比特幣儲備足以支付67年的股息。如果比特幣每年上漲 1.5%,那就是我們的損益兩平點 ARR。我們完全可以把獲得的額外比特幣賣掉,但我們不會用這種方式來支付股息。因此,我們不需要比特幣價格大幅上漲,就能主要透過 Stretch 支付股息。
Next slide. Our US dollar reserve, which I'm very happy we put in place in Q4 and solidified in Q1, it's $2.25 billion. That's 30 months of different end coverage, 2.5 years of dividend coverage. So if we were not able to raise capital, which we've shown that we've been able to do through equity issuances, we could sit here do nothing and pay off our dividends over or satisfy our dividends over 30 months using this reserve.
下一張投影片。我很高興我們在第四季度建立了美元儲備,並在第一季鞏固了這項儲備,目前儲備金額為 22.5 億美元。這相當於 30 個月的不同期末保障,2.5 年的股利保障。因此,如果我們無法籌集資金(我們已經證明我們能夠透過發行股票來籌集資金),我們可以什麼都不做,利用這筆儲備金在 30 個月內支付股息或滿足股息要求。
Next slide. And as I mentioned, since we took -- since we received a B- stable outlook credit rating from S&P, we've taken a lot of positive actions to improve this. Will the S&P increase it from B-? I think if they were to make an evaluation today, they likely would, but they just make a valuations every year or so. They don't want to move fast in terms of what the credit rating is, but we've added a US dollar reserve $2.25 billion. I'll remind you that the first $1.44 billion were raised in eight days.
下一張投影片。正如我之前提到的,自從我們獲得標普B-穩定展望信用評級以來,我們採取了很多積極措施來改善這種情況。標普會將其評級從B-上調嗎?我認為如果他們今天進行評估,他們很可能會這樣做,但他們只是每年進行一次估值。他們不想在信用評級方面迅速採取行動,但我們已經增加了 22.5 億美元的美元儲備。我提醒各位,首批 14.4 億美元是在八天內籌集到的。
The second is we've been able to maintain a robust access to capital to raise $9.5 billion in three months and 72,300 bitcoins. It will be shown that we're highly liquid and able to access capital, and we paid it -- paid dividends every single month, every single quarter since our credit rating.
第二點是,我們一直能夠保持充足的資金來源,在三個月內籌集了 95 億美元和 72300 個比特幣。事實證明,我們擁有很高的流動性,能夠獲得資金,而且我們也確實這樣做了——自從我們獲得信用評級以來,每個月、每個季度都支付了股息。
Next slide. So what we're going to do to make Stretch even better? In addition to improving the credit quality, we've been working with brokerages like Robinhood and CashApp to get Stretch and preferreds listed there. Robinhood in fact launched the first-ever preferreds on their platform because of the demand and the liquidity that they saw in the Stretch.
下一張投影片。那麼,我們該如何讓 Stretch 變得更好呢?除了提高信貸品質外,我們還與 Robinhood 和 CashApp 等經紀公司合作,將 Stretch 和優先股列入這些平台。事實上,Robinhood 之所以在其平台上推出首批優先股,是因為他們看到了 Stretch 市場的需求和流動性。
We've been working with wire houses, wealth management, broker-dealers, RIAs to help explain the Stretch. We've integrated Stretch now into crypto. So just like you saw MSTR turn into MSTY, MSTU, et cetera, we're seeing Buck and other coins like Saturn and APYX, A-P-Y-X, and tradfi platforms starting to launch products on top of Stretch, and we expect over time, Stretch will be tokenized. We'll integrate with ETFs also.
我們一直在與券商、財富管理公司、經紀交易商、註冊投資顧問 (RIA) 合作,以幫助解釋 Stretch。我們已將 Stretch 整合到加密貨幣領域。就像你看到 MSTR 變成了 MSTY、MSTU 等等一樣,我們看到 Buck 和其他代幣,如 Saturn 和 APYX、A-P-Y-X,以及 tradfi 平台開始在 Stretch 之上推出產品,我們預計隨著時間的推移,Stretch 將會被代幣化。我們也將與ETF進行整合。
We started -- we've been involved in industry conference, leveraged finance conferences, teaching sessions and so we're telling everybody about Stretch, and we engaged in digital marketing. You might have seen ads on X or YouTube or Wall Street Journal. And of course, we have strategy.com, Strategy app, interviews and podcast. We want everyone to be aware of digital credit because we think it's an amazing product for an investor, and we think it helps build the Strategy flywheel on the Bitcoin flywheel over time.
我們從一開始——我們參與了行業會議、槓桿融資會議、教學課程,所以我們向所有人宣傳 Stretch,並且我們從事數位行銷。你可能在X網站、YouTube或《華爾街日報》上看過廣告。當然,我們還有 strategy.com 網站、Strategy 應用程式、訪談和播客。我們希望每個人都了解數位信貸,因為我們認為它對投資者來說是一個很棒的產品,而且我們認為它有助於隨著時間的推移在比特幣飛輪的基礎上建立策略飛輪。
I do want to update a slight change to our Stretch guidance. In the past, we've said that we're going to base our actions on Stretch on a five-day VWAP at the end of the month. What we found is that Stretch trade is very interestingly around dates like our record date and our payment date. Our record date falls before the five days at the end of the month and that's where we've seen people try to buy Stretch through the get in before the record days, so we thought the better view of Stretch price is to look over the course of the entire month.
我想對我們的伸展運動指導做一些小小的改變。過去我們曾說過,我們將根據月底五天的成交量加權平均價格 (VWAP) 來決定 Stretch 的行動。我們發現,Stretch 交易的出現時間非常有趣,往往與我們的記錄日期和付款日期等日期重疊。我們的記錄日是在月底的五天之前,我們看到有人試圖在記錄日之前買入 Stretch,所以我們認為更好地了解 Stretch 的價格是觀察整個月的情況。
So the VWAP range, by which will look at the price of Stretch and make determinations on what to do with our rate, will be based on the entire month. So as an example for January. If we were to have made that change in January, it would have been January 1 through January 31; for February will be February 1 through February 28.
因此,VWAP 範圍(我們將根據 Stretch 的價格來決定如何處理我們的費率)將基於整個月份。以一月份為例。如果我們在 1 月做出這項改變,那麼改變的日期將是 1 月 1 日至 1 月 31 日;2 月份的改變的日期將是 2 月 1 日至 2 月 28 日。
Next slide. So we talked about digital credit and the importance of digital credit is what it does for a digital equity. Digital credit amplifies our common equity. And I just looked at these numbers were as of last Friday. As of today, MSTR is up 48% since we started this strategy. Bitcoins up 36% since we started this strategy, and we've outperformed the Mag 7, Gold, S&P 500. We're amplified Bitcoin, designed to outperform Bitcoin, and our belief is Bitcoin will outperform every other asset class in the world over time.
下一張投影片。所以我們討論了數位信用,數位信用的重要性在於它對數位資產的作用。數位信貸增強了我們的共同權益。我剛才查看的這些數據截至上週五。截至今日,自我們開始實施該策略以來,MSTR 已上漲 48%。自從我們開始採用該策略以來,比特幣上漲了 36%,我們的表現優於 Mag 7、黃金和標普 500 指數。我們是增強型比特幣,旨在超越比特幣,我們相信隨著時間的推移,比特幣的表現將超越世界上所有其他資產類別。
Next slide. How do we create amplify Bitcoin? How do we outperform Bitcoin? We produce Bitcoin per share. We increase Bitcoin per share, which is the change of Bitcoin per share is Bitcoin yield. And you look here over the course of the last six years, we've increased Bitcoin per share every single year. That's why we outperformed Bitcoin.
下一張投影片。我們如何創建 Amplify Bitcoin?我們如何跑贏比特幣?我們每股產出比特幣。我們增加了每股比特幣的價格,每股比特幣價格的變動就是比特幣殖利率。你看,在過去的六年裡,我們每年都在提高每股比特幣的價格。這就是我們跑贏比特幣的原因。
If you buy 1 bitcoin at the beginning of the year, you'll have 1 bitcoin at the end of the year. If you buy one share of Strategy at the beginning of the year 2025, you would have had 23% more Bitcoin at the end of the year 2025. We increased Bitcoin per share, and we call that increased Bitcoin yield.
如果你在年初購買 1 個比特幣,那麼到年底你仍然會擁有 1 個比特幣。如果你在 2025 年初購買一股 Strategy 股票,到 2025 年底你將擁有比現在多 23% 的比特幣。我們提高了每股比特幣的數量,我們稱之為比特幣收益率的提高。
Next slide. So how do we think about this over the course of the next seven years? I showed you what we've done in the last six years. The way we're going to increase Bitcoin per share over the course of the next six to seven years is we are going to sell digital credit. And what does digital credit due by selling digital credit? We generate amplification by generating amplification. We increase Bitcoin per share by increasing Bitcoin per share. MSTR common outperforms Bitcoin. It's a very simple formula.
下一張投影片。那麼,在接下來的七年裡,我們該如何看待這個問題呢?我向你們展示了我們過去六年所做的工作。未來六到七年內,我們將透過出售數位信用來提高每股比特幣的價值。出售數位信用會產生哪些數位信用費用?我們透過產生放大效應來產生放大效應。我們透過增加每股比特幣的數量來增加每股比特幣的數量。MSTR普通股的表現優於比特幣。這是一個非常簡單的公式。
And what are the inputs? How much digital credit can we sell, which is how much Stretch can we sell? Here is an assumption that on a base of $60 billion of Bitcoin, if we can sell 10% of digital credit, which is $6 billion, this is what this might look like over time. And you say $6 billion that a lot or is that a little? Well, last year we sold $7 billion of digital credit, and when we raised over $25 billion in the equity capital market. So we think this is a fairly conservative assumption, $6 billion.
輸入參數有哪些?我們可以賣出多少數位信用額度,也就是我們可以賣多少 Stretch 額度?假設比特幣總市值達到 600 億美元,如果我們能賣出 10% 的數位信用(即 60 億美元),那麼隨著時間的推移,情況可能會變成這樣。你說60億美元很多還是很少?去年,我們售出了價值 70 億美元的數位信貸,並在股權資本市場籌集了超過 250 億美元的資金。所以我們認為這是一個相當保守的假設,60億美元。
This assumes a 10% dividend rate, which is where we are right now, and that we're issuing equity to pay for the insurance for the dividend of our digital credit at 1.34x mNAV, right. And so I'll call this a low scenario. If we have this low scenario over the course of seven years will increase Bitcoin per share 1.4x. That's a 5% annual Bitcoin yield.
這假設股息率為 10%(我們目前的情況就是如此),而我們正在發行股票來支付我們數位信貸股息的保險,保費為 1.34 倍 mNAV,對吧。所以我會把這種情況稱為低風險情況。如果按照這種低利率情景,七年後比特幣每股價格將上漲1.4倍,相當於每年5%的比特幣殖利率。
Next slide. What if we can do a little bit better? What if we can assume 16% of digital credit sales or not $6 billion, but $10 billion? What if the Fed lowers interest rates or we're able to low interest rates on our digital credit down to 9%? And what if the view of this causes investors to believe will increase Bitcoin per share and mNAV goes up and we have amplified Bitcoin and MSTR, we'll get to 1.75x mNAV. This scenario with the 30 -- assumption at 30% Bitcoin ARR gets us to a 2x increase in Bitcoin per share over seven years, which is a 10% annual BTC yield.
下一張投影片。如果我們能做得更好一點呢?如果我們假設數位信用卡銷售額的 16% 不是 60 億美元,而是 100 億美元,那會怎麼樣?如果聯準會降低利率,或者我們能夠將數位信貸的利率降至 9% 呢?如果這種觀點導致投資者相信比特幣每股價格上漲,mNAV 上升,並且我們放大了比特幣和 MSTR 的價值,我們將達到 mNAV 的 1.75 倍,那會怎麼樣?如果假設比特幣年化收益率 (ARR) 為 30%,則七年內每股比特幣價值將成長 2 倍,即年化比特幣收益率為 10%。
Next slide. What is a more aggressive scenario look like? Maybe we can assume 20% digital credit sales. We're able to drive the dividend rate down to 8%, and our mNAV goes up to 2.25x. Then we can increase Bitcoin per share of 2.5 times over seven years and a 14% annual Bitcoin yield. That's another scenario.
下一張投影片。更具侵略性的方案是什麼樣的?或許我們可以假設數位信用卡銷售額佔20%。我們可以把股利率降到 8%,同時將本益比提高到 2.25 倍。然後,我們可以在七年內將每股比特幣價值提高 2.5 倍,並實現 14% 的年比特幣收益率。那是另一種情況。
And I'll go to the final slide in my section. Ultimately, this is the strategy of the company: we're going to issue digital credit through Stretch. We're going to amplify the common equity because of it, it increases our Bitcoin per share and we outperformed Bitcoin.
接下來我將轉到我這部分的最後一張投影片。歸根結底,這就是公司的策略:我們將透過 Stretch 發行數位信用。因此,我們將增加普通股權益,這將提高我們每股的比特幣價值,而且我們的表現優於比特幣。
What are the levers that we can play with? How much digital credit can we sell? How attractive can we make Stretch? How well do we market it? How well do we distribute it? With higher demand, we can lower the cost of credit. And we'll increase the mNAV. That's the thesis for the company, and that's what we're excited to do, and that's what we're going to focus on in 2026.
我們可以利用哪些手段?我們可以出售多少數位信用額度?我們能讓Stretch變得多有吸引力?我們的市場推廣做得如何?我們的分發情況如何?需求增加,我們就能降低信用成本。我們將增加 mNAV。這就是公司的理念,也是我們樂於去做的事情,更是我們在 2026 年要專注在的事情上。
So with that, I will pass it over to Michael.
那麼,接下來我將把麥克風交給麥可。
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Thank you, Phong. I'm delighted to have you join us today. Why don't we go to the next slide?
謝謝你,Phong。很高興今天你能加入我們。我們為什麼不進入下一張投影片呢?
All of our strategy is based upon looking at the fundamentals and taking a 10-year view. And so when you consider the fundamentals of digital capital, you have to start with most important regulator in the entire world, and that is the President of the United States. We have a Bitcoin president, and he's intent upon making America the Bitcoin superpower, the crypto capital, the world, and the leader in digital assets. I don't think you can underestimate the importance of having support for the industry and digital capital at the very top of the political structure.
我們所有的策略都基於對基本面的分析,並著眼於未來十年。因此,在考慮數位資本的基本原則時,你必須從全世界最重要的監管機構開始,那就是美國總統。我們有一位比特幣總統,他決心讓美國成為比特幣超級大國、加密貨幣之都、世界之都、數位資產的領導者。我認為,在政治結構的最高層獲得對產業和數位資本的支持至關重要,這一點怎麼強調都不為過。
Now, equally important, if we look at the cabinet that's been put in place on the next slide, is he the entire government is now embraced Bitcoin. When I say embrace Bitcoin, what I mean is 18 months ago, there was one person in the government that had an awareness of it and was skeptical to neutral or grudgingly accepting of it, and everyone else in government was either negatively inclined or they were ignorant of it. And now, there are 12 individuals I'd want to highlight.
現在,同樣重要的是,如果我們看一下下一張投影片中已經組成的內閣,就會發現整個政府現在都接受了比特幣。我說要擁抱比特幣,我的意思是,18 個月前,政府裡只有一個人了解比特幣,但他對比特幣持懷疑態度,或者說是中立態度,或者勉強接受,而政府裡的其他人要么持否定態度,要么對比特幣一無所知。現在,我想重點介紹12位人物。
Here, J.D. Vance, the Vice President; Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary; Paul Atkins, the Head of the SEC; number four, Kevin Warsh, who was just who is the Fed Chair Nominee who understands digital assets, understands the use case of Bitcoin. This is a tremendous move forward for us, a big fundamental shift.
這裡,有副總統 J.D. Vance;財政部長 Scott Bessent;美國證券交易委員會主席 Paul Atkins;還有第四位,聯準會主席提名人 Kevin Warsh,他了解數位資產,也了解比特幣的用途。這對我們來說是一次巨大的進步,一場根本性的轉變。
Then now you can look at the head of the SEC, the head of the Treasury, and the head of the Fed, as all appreciating the pivotal role of digital assets and the growth of the country and the economy.
現在,你可以看到美國證券交易委員會主席、財政部長和聯準會主席都認識到數位資產對國家和經濟成長的關鍵作用。
And if you go to the second line, you see the head of intelligence, the head of the Small Business Administration, the head of Federal Housing, the head of Health and Human services, all Bitcoin believers.
如果你翻到第二行,你會看到情報部門負責人、小企業管理局局長、聯邦住房管理局局長、衛生與公眾服務部局長,他們都是比特幣的信徒。
And then Michael Selig, the CFTC Chairman; David Sacks, who's doing a wonderful job; Howard Lutnick, Commerce Secretary; and even Kash Patel. So if you considered that, we went from one neutral to a Bitcoin president and 12 positive constructive. This is great fundamentals for us, and I don't think we can lose sight of this because everything that follows in the marketplace is very much influenced by the political structure of the world.
還有美國商品期貨交易委員會主席邁克爾·塞利格;工作非常出色的大衛·薩克斯;商務部長霍華德·盧特尼克;甚至還有卡什·帕特爾。所以如果你考慮到這一點,我們就從一位中立人士變成了一位比特幣總統,還有 12 位積極建設性人士。這對我們來說是很好的基本面,我認為我們不能忽視這一點,因為市場接下來的一切都深受世界政治結構的影響。
On the next slide. Capital Hill has embraced Bitcoin. We've got bipartisan consensus that the United States should embrace digital assets, should embrace digital capital, should be a leader. That is not a debate. No one is saying that there's one party in favor of digital capital, another party against it. That's a big deal.
下一頁。國會山莊已經接受了比特幣。我們已經達成兩黨共識,美國應該擁抱數位資產,擁抱數位資本,並成為這方面的領導者。那根本不是爭論的問題。沒有人說一方支持數位資本,另一方反對數位資本。那可是件大事。
So although the political process is complicated, the fact that we have moved from an asset which was a scary speculative thing and maybe a legitimate, to a legitimate asset that most reasoned politicians and regulators and policymakers believe they need to move constructively forward with.
因此,儘管政治過程很複雜,但事實是,我們已經從一種可怕的投機性資產(也許合法)轉變為一種合法資產,大多數理性的政治家、監管機構和政策制定者都認為他們需要建設性地推進這項資產。
Let's go to the next slide. Big banks are embracing Bitcoin. Roll the clock back 18 months and this Harvey Ball diagram is pretty much blank, mostly blank. And so when you actually look at the top financial institutions and you ask the question, do they allow IBIT trading? Well, there's an avalanche of support there that's flipped in 12 months.
我們來看下一張投影片。大型銀行正在擁抱比特幣。把時間倒回 18 個月前,這張哈維鮑爾的圖表幾乎是空白的,大部分都是空白的。所以,當你真正審視那些頂級金融機構,並提出這樣的問題時,你會想:他們是否允許 IBIT 交易?嗯,那裡的支持浪潮在 12 個月內發生了翻天覆地的變化。
The second question is, do they offer credit against IBIT? That's a big deal. 12 months ago was almost impossible to get a loan or margin loan against IBIT. Now, there are many banks coming into space.
第二個問題是,他們是否提供以 IBIT 為抵押的信貸?這可是件大事。 12個月前,幾乎不可能以所得稅抵免貸款或保證金貸款。現在,許多銀行都涉足太空領域。
Would they let you trade BTC? Now, you have banks that are announcing support for that. You have banks announcing support to custody BTC, and you have banks announcing intent to offer credit against BTC.
他們會允許你交易比特幣嗎?現在,一些銀行已經宣布支持這種做法。一些銀行宣布支持託管比特幣,其他銀行則宣布打算提供以比特幣為抵押的信貸服務。
Again, this is an extraordinary sea change we cannot underestimate the value. I think that the fundamentals of the industry are driven by the banks creating credit. One bank can create as much credit as all the Bitcoin miners can create in Bitcoin in a year. So each bank that turns on Bitcoin-backed credit lines might be the equivalent of another having for the network.
再次強調,這是一次非同尋常的巨變,我們不能低估它的價值。我認為,該行業的基本面是由銀行創造信貸所驅動的。一家銀行一年內創造的信用總量,相當於所有比特幣礦工一年內創造的比特幣總量。因此,每個開通比特幣支持信貸額度的銀行,對網路而言都相當於另一個銀行。
Let's go to the next slide. TradFi and fintech have embraced Bitcoin. If you look at the number of accounts with BTC trading asset, there's a pretty clear bullish trend here, both across crypto, native exchanges, fintech and the old banks and brokerages and banks and the wealth management channel. Those are large numbers. Fundamentally, we're going from an asset class and no one could buy if they wanted to, to an asset class where everyone is competing to facilitate access and exposure.
我們來看下一張投影片。傳統金融和金融科技產業已經接受了比特幣。如果你看一下比特幣交易資產的帳戶數量,你會發現無論是在加密貨幣領域、原生交易所、金融科技領域,還是在傳統銀行、經紀公司和財富管理管道,都存在著非常明顯的上漲趨勢。這些數字很大。從根本上說,我們正在從一個沒人能買到的資產類別,轉變為一個每個人都在競爭以促進獲取和投資機會的資產類別。
The next slide. This is the ETF trend. ETFs are embracing Bitcoin 125 ETFs, or ETFs launched 1.4 million Bitcoin held in them are very consistent trend up and to the right.
下一張投影片。這就是ETF的趨勢。ETF 正在擁抱比特幣,125 隻比特幣 ETF(或稱為 ETF)已發行,其中持有 140 萬枚比特幣,這些 ETF 呈現出非常一致的上漲趨勢。
Next. And this is the corporate trend. There was nothing in 2019. We were the first serious player. We were lonely for a bit. Then we went to 33. We were 64 and 2024, and now, we're 194. This is clearly explosive growth and there's a signal here.
下一個。這就是企業的發展趨勢。2019年什麼都沒有。我們是第一個認真對待此事的人。我們當時感到有點孤獨。然後我們去了33。我們曾經是 64 歲,現在是 194 歲。這顯然是爆發式增長,其中蘊含著某種訊號。
Next. The public markets are embracing Bitcoin. Look at these IPOs that have taken place this year. Bullish, Circle, Gemini, BitGo, Kraken that's coming. And then Coinbase, Block, and Robin would have all been included in the S&P 500. So I see this as a very bullish indicator and a fundamental improvement in the structure of the industry.
下一個。公開市場正在接受比特幣。看看今年已經進行的這些IPO。Bullish、Circle、Gemini、BitGo、Kraken 即將到來。那麼 Coinbase、Block 和 Robin 都將納入標普 500 指數。所以我認為這是一個非常看漲的指標,也是產業結構的基本改善。
The concern du jour is quantum computers, and many people ask, do quantum computers represent a threat to Bitcoin? I would note that the quantum computing concern and quantum FUD is just the latest in a long litany and a parade of horrible FUD that has been taking place since the beginning of Bitcoin. There was functionality FUD. Bitcoins not functional enough, so it will fail if it needs smart contracts. And then people thought it was a Ponzi and then they thought it was too volatile and then they thought, well, there was a bug in it and maybe it'll be 51% attacked. Maybe the Chinese control too much of it.
目前人們關注的焦點是量子計算機,許多人都在問,量子計算機是否會對比特幣構成威脅?我想指出,對量子計算的擔憂和量子領域的恐懼、懷疑和不確定性(FUD)只是自比特幣誕生以來一系列可怕的FUD中的最新一起。存在著功能性恐懼、不確定性和懷疑論。比特幣的功能還不夠完善,所以如果需要智慧合約,它將會失敗。然後人們認為這是一個龐氏騙局,然後他們又認為它波動性太大,然後他們又想,嗯,它裡面有漏洞,也許會被攻擊 51%。或許中國人對它的控制力太強了。
And then there was the Chinese. Shut it down. It was the opposite of the China FUD, it was the China nonrace. And then we had all manner of block size wards and bandwidth flood and then there was a uses, electricity FUD and then there was the wealth concentration FUD and then of course, then there was another crypto will be better.
然後還有中國人。關閉它。它與針對中國的恐懼、不確定和懷疑(FUD)截然相反,它是針對中國的非種族歧視。然後我們經歷了各種各樣的區塊大小限制和頻寬氾濫,然後出現了關於用途、電力方面的 FUD,然後又出現了關於財富集中方面的 FUD,當然,之後又出現了另一種加密貨幣會更好的說法。
What I would say is whenever dealing with each of these concerns, we have to take them seriously. We have to consider them, but we have to remember two things. One, the two words on the back of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy; don't panic. Most important two words, more important than everything in the encyclopedia or the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.
我想說的是,在處理這些問題時,我們都必須認真看待。我們必須考慮這些因素,但我們必須記住兩件事。第一,正如《銀河系漫遊指南》封底上的兩個字:不要驚慌。最重要的兩個字,比百科全書或《銀河系漫遊指南》中的所有內容都重要。
The second observation, the Hippocratic Oath; do no harm. And so whenever you're faced with the challenge in any system or any network, you have to make sure you don't panic. You're not railroaded into doing something foolish or destructive. And you also can't do something that causes harm. You don't want an iatrogenic intervention where the cure is worse than the disease.
第二準則,希波克拉底誓言:不傷害他人。因此,無論何時你在任何系統或任何網路中遇到挑戰,你都必須確保自己不要驚慌失措。你不會被強迫去做愚蠢或具有破壞性的事情。而且你也不能做任何會造成傷害的事情。你肯定不希望出現醫源性幹預,導致治療效果比疾病本身更糟。
So our position on quantum computing: one, we think it's probably 10 or more years away before there's a threat that is the consensus. It's a promising technology, but it's still nations. Many industries including finance and defense are dependent upon traditional cryptography. They face the same risks. There's a significant global investment going into building quantum resistant protocols. Not just in the Bitcoin community, across all communities. The Bitcoin community is specific, is engaged on research and development. In these efforts, there's good work that's taking place.
所以,我們對量子運算的立場是:第一,我們認為在量子運算構成威脅之前,可能還需要 10 年或更長時間才能達成共識。這項技術很有前途,但目前仍受各國影響。包括金融和國防在內的許多行業都依賴傳統密碼學。他們面臨同樣的風險。全球範圍內,大量資金正投入建構抗量子協議。不僅限於比特幣社區,而是所有社區都存在這種情況。比特幣社群具有很強的針對性,致力於研發。在這些努力中,確實有一些卓有成效的工作正在進行中。
If Bitcoin requires an upgrade, there will be global consensus. Right now, there isn't global consensus that exist in cryptographic libraries are at risk, and to stampede into a hypothetical fix before there's consensus would introduce new attack surfaces and new complexity and new failure modes that don't currently exist. It's very similar to over vaccinating, and it's like, well, there's a there's a .001% chance that the kid might get a disease. So we're going to vaccinate them just in case. But of course, 3% of the people to get the vaccine have side effects. So it's very important that we don't over insure, over vaccinate, overtreat, over worry.
如果比特幣需要升級,將會達成全球共識。目前,對於加密庫中存在的安全漏洞尚未達成全球共識,在達成共識之前貿然提出假設性的解決方案,將會引入新的攻擊面、新的複雜性以及目前尚不存在的新故障模式。這和過度接種疫苗非常相似,就好像,嗯,孩子患病的機率只有 0.001%。所以,為了以防萬一,我們打算給他們打疫苗。當然,接種疫苗的人中有 3% 會出現副作用。所以,我們千萬不要過度投保、過度接種疫苗、過度治療、過度擔憂。
It's the famous president of the United States, he said. If you see any problems driving down the road, nine of them will probably drive themselves into a ditch before they get to you.
他說,那是美國著名的總統。如果你在路上開車時發現任何問題,其中九個問題車輛可能在你遇到它們之前就已經開進溝裡了。
So the one thing you can't do is you can't buy 100 expensive insurance policies that cost collectively 100% of all your operating income to insure against something which is 2% likely to happen. That's why you have to be very thoughtful about addressing these risks and you have to address them at the right time. Not too soon, not too late. But because too soon, you probably don't have the right technology and you're over ensuring too late, you accept the risk that you shouldn't. That's why consensus is very important.
所以有一件事你不能做,那就是你不能買 100 份昂貴的保險單,這些保單的總成本相當於你所有營業收入的 100%,去防範只有 2% 的可能性發生的事情。所以,你必須認真考慮如何應對這些風險,並且必須在適當的時機應對它們。不早也不晚。但因為操之過急,你可能還沒有合適的技術;而過度謹慎又為時已晚,所以你承擔了本不該承擔的風險。所以,達成共識非常重要。
Bitcoin will be stronger if and when that quantum upgrade takes place. And so Bitcoin is upgradable. And Bitcoin can be upgraded to be stronger and we of course, are optimist. And we believe that the human race will accept challenges and will upgrade to meet those challenges and do it in a rational fashion. And Bitcoin has a history of meeting challenges and irrational fashion such that the stronger and you can see all those examples.
如果這種量子升級發生,比特幣將會變得更強。因此,比特幣是可以升級的。比特幣可以升級變得更強大,我們當然是樂觀的。我們相信,人類會接受挑戰,並會提升自身能力以應對這些挑戰,而且會以理性的方式做到這一點。比特幣一直以來都以各種方式應對挑戰和非理性行為,例如,它越強大,你就能看出其中的種種例子。
Last, but probably most important on this slide. Strategy, we are going to initiate a Bitcoin security program that coordinates with the global cybersecurity community, the global crypto security community, and the global Bitcoin security committee in order to help and contribute to consensus and solutions to address the quantum computing threat, as well as any other emergent security threats that evolved. We think it's reasonable and appropriate for us to do this given our large responsibility as a Bitcoin holder. But we want to do it in a very responsible fashion, and we want to make sure that we coordinate with the global cyber crypto/Bitcoin security community because there are a lot of very, very brilliant minds here. There's a lot of good work being done and it's likely that consensus will form and solutions will form at the right time in a responsible fashion. So that's our view on quantum.
最後,但或許也是本頁最重要的內容。戰略方面,我們將啟動一個比特幣安全計劃,與全球網路安全社群、全球加密安全社群和全球比特幣安全委員會協調合作,以幫助和促進共識和解決方案,從而應對量子運算威脅以及任何其他新出現的安全威脅。鑑於我們身為比特幣持有者所肩負的重大責任,我們認為這樣做是合理且恰當的。但我們希望以非常負責任的方式進行,並且我們希望確保與全球網路加密貨幣/比特幣安全社群進行協調,因為這裡有很多非常非常傑出的人才。目前有很多卓有成效的工作正在進行,而且很可能在適當的時候,以負責任的方式達成共識並找到解決方案。這就是我們對量子力學的看法。
Next slide. Digital credit. Our company existed -- we structure and we secure Bitcoin. We're a digital credit issuer. If you look at this chart, what you can see is that the natives volatility or the natural volatility of Bitcoin is about 45%. For a 45% vol asset to draw down, 45% shouldn't shock anybody, right? And I know the Bitcoin looks like it's drawn down about 45% since its all-time high four months ago. So a 45% draw down on a 45% vol asset is probably to be expected just like an 80% drawdown when it was an 80% vol asset.
下一張投影片。數字信用。我們公司存在的意義就是建構和保障比特幣的安全。我們是一家數位信貸發行機構。如果你看一下這張圖表,你會發現比特幣的原生波動率或自然波動率約為 45%。對於波動率為 45% 的資產來說,下跌 45% 應該不會讓人感到意外,對吧?我知道比特幣自四個月前的歷史高點以來,似乎已經下跌了約 45%。因此,波動率為 45% 的資產出現 45% 的回撤可能是可以預期的,就像波動率為 80% 的資產出現 80% 的回撤一樣。
On the other hand, what you can see pretty clearly is that Strategy has stripped that volatility off of BTC with Strike, which was 32%; Stride, 27%; Strife, 24%; and Stretch down to 7%. So we are stripping the volatility off of Bitcoin and there is conservation of energy and conservation of volatility and so the volatility that we strip off of the credit instruments accrues to the common equity. And so that's why MSTR 63% vol, but it's not really complicated piece of engineering, it is just is very pure financial engineering. There's a group of people that want low vol principal protected instruments that are credit instruments and there are other people that want high vol, high performance.
另一方面,我們可以很清楚地看到,Strategy 已經透過 Strike(32%)、Stride(27%)、Strife(24%)和 Stretch(7%)等策略,將 BTC 的波動性降低了不少。因此,我們正在消除比特幣的波動性,而能量守恆,波動性守恆,所以我們從信用工具中消除的波動性會累積到普通股中。所以這就是 MSTR 波動率為 63% 的原因,但它不是一個複雜的工程,而是一個非常純粹的金融工程。有一部分人想要波動性低、本金有保障的信用工具,而另一部分人則想要波動性高、收益高的工具。
Next slide. I think of us as a digital credit vehicle, our job, we are thrusting forward. We are actually moving through space, through issuing digital credit. Digital credit is the product, Bitcoin is the backing collateral. The secret or the most important thing for us to do is to build the vehicle in the most robust, fault tolerant way that we can, the most scalable way we can.
下一張投影片。我認為我們就像一個數位信貸工具,我們的工作就是不斷向前發展。我們實際上是在透過發行數位信貸來拓展我們的視野。數位信貸是產品,比特幣是抵押品。對我們來說,秘訣或最重要的事情,就是以最穩健、容錯性最高、可擴展性最強的方式來製造車輛。
You could think of it as a Bitcoin battery and then a US dollar battery, and we have lots of options. We have options to run on the US dollar reserve. We have the option to sell equity. We have the option to sell Bitcoin. We have the option to sell Bitcoin derivatives, and we keep our options open so that we can do the best thing for all of our stakeholders, our common stock shareholders, we want to do the right thing for the MSTR common stock shareholders. We want to do the right thing for the credit holders of the digital credit instruments, and we want to do the right thing for the Bitcoin community. And we believe that if we're rational and thoughtful, then we get a good outcome which is BTC positive, MSTR positive, STRC positive.
你可以把它想像成比特幣電池,然後再想像成一個美元電池,我們有很多選擇。我們可以選擇利用美元儲備進行營運。我們可以選擇出售股權。我們可以選擇出售比特幣。我們可以選擇出售比特幣衍生品,我們保留所有選擇權,以便為我們所有的利益相關者,特別是我們的普通股股東,做最好的事情。我們希望為MSTR的普通股股東做正確的事。我們想為數位信用工具的持有者做正確的事,我們也想為比特幣社群做正確的事。我們相信,如果我們理性思考,就能得到好的結果,即比特幣價格上漲、MSTR 價格上漲、STRC 價格上漲。
Next slide. Companies exist to cover capital into cash flows and essence. You have capital investors and you have credit investors. The credit investor wants $10,000 a month forever. And the capital investor gets $1 million of real estate with no cash flows for the next 30 years and maybe they'll get more than 10% a year, maybe they'll get 20%, 30% a year performance.
下一張投影片。公司的存在是為了將資本轉化為現金流和本質。投資者分為資本投資者和信用投資者。這位信貸投資者想要每月持續獲得 1 萬美元的收入。資本投資者獲得價值 100 萬美元的房地產,未來 30 年內不會產生現金流,但他們每年可能獲得超過 10% 的收益,甚至可能獲得 20%、30% 的收益。
But it's pretty straightforward that the world's built on capital, the world runs on credit. BTC is digital capital. STRC is digital credit. We -- it takes an operating company to transform capital into credit.
但顯而易見的是,世界建立在資本之上,世界依靠信貸運作。比特幣是數位資本。STRC是數位信用。我們-需要一家營運公司才能將資本轉化為信貸。
If we were a real estate development company, we could take $50 billion of capital, buy a bunch of land in New York City, build a bunch of buildings, market the buildings, rent the buildings, and generate cash flows. That's a way to do this, but you take on all sorts of liability, all sorts of counterparty risk, operating risk. It takes a lot of time. You have property taxes, employment taxes, income taxes, usage taxes, et cetera. That's the 20th century way to actually create credit from capital.
如果我們是一家房地產開發公司,我們可以投入 500 億美元的資金,在紐約市購買大量土地,建造大量建築物,推銷這些建築物,出租這些建築物,並產生現金流。這是一種方法,但你要承擔各種各樣的責任、各種各樣的交易對手風險和營運風險。這需要花費很多時間。你需要繳房產稅、僱傭稅、所得稅、使用稅等等。這就是20世紀利用資本創造信用的方式。
Well, we've taken a much faster route. We would just take the money, buy Bitcoin, and just issue the credit and we skip all the intermediate steps. That makes us extremely technically efficient and makes us extremely economically efficient. It makes us extremely tax efficient.
我們選擇了一條更快捷的路線。我們只需拿到錢,購買比特幣,然後直接發放信用額度,跳過所有中間步驟。這使我們在技術和經濟上都極為有效率。這使我們的稅務效率極高。
Next slide. At the core, what are we doing right? We're transforming that capital into credit. We're taking BTC and we're converting it into a currency, whether it's a US dollar or euro. We're stripping the risk by over collateralizing it. If you have $5 of Bitcoin and it falls by 80%, then you've got $1 a Bitcoin. But when you have $1 of STRC back by $5 of Bitcoin and it falls by 80%, you still got $1 of STRC backed by $1 of Bitcoin. So we're stripping or reducing the risk by the BTC rating.
下一張投影片。從根本上講,我們做對了什麼?我們正在將這些資本轉化為信貸。我們把比特幣兌換成貨幣,無論是美元還是歐元。我們透過超額抵押來降低風險。如果你有價值 5 美元的比特幣,它下跌了 80%,那麼你每個比特幣就只值 1 美元了。但是,當你有價值 1 美元的 STRC 由價值 5 美元的比特幣支持,即使它下跌了 80%,你仍然擁有價值 1 美元的 STRC 由價值 1 美元的比特幣支持。所以,我們透過比特幣評級來降低風險。
And then we're also taking other actions to reduce risk. We're an operating company, we can raise capital, we can sell equity, we can refinance, we can strip risk by taking a 2-year obligation or a 10-year obligation and stretching it out to a 20-year obligation. So operating companies can do these things.
此外,我們也正在採取其他措施來降低風險。我們是一家營運公司,我們可以籌集資金,我們可以出售股權,我們可以進行再融資,我們可以透過將 2 年或 10 年期債務延長至 20 年期債務來消除風險。所以營運公司可以做這些事。
We we're also damping the volatility. We damped volatility by building the collateral, by building the US dollar value, by adjusting the dividends, by adjusting the ATM programs, by adjusting our capital markets behavior, and we adjust these things minutely -- every minute, maybe even every second. We have programs to adjust all of our activity so as to damp volatility, and we're very engaged, and we are very focused on it.
我們也在抑制波動性。我們透過增加抵押品、提升美元價值、調整股息、調整自動櫃員機計劃、調整資本市場行為來抑制波動,而且我們對這些方面進行細緻的調整——每分鐘,甚至可能每秒。我們制定了調整所有活動的方案,以降低波動性,我們非常積極地參與其中,並高度重視這一點。
Of course, and then we distil the yield from the capital asset in order to create a fixed income yield rate. And of course, we're compressing the duration. Instead of telling you to wait 10 years in order to get a 30% return, we're giving the 18-year old cash flow this month and every month, so 10 years of duration is 120 months. We're converting 120 months into one-month duration.
當然,然後我們從資本資產中提煉出收益,以創建固定收益收益率。當然,我們也會縮短時長。我們不會告訴你需要等待 10 年才能獲得 30% 的回報,而是給這位 18 歲的人提供本月及以後每個月的現金流,因此 10 年的期限相當於 120 個月。我們將 120 個月轉換為 1 個月。
And so when people say what does the company do, the company transforms digital capital into digital credit. Are these things valuable? Of course they're valuable. There's a $300 trillion market for credit. It's extraordinarily valuable. And the key is for us to create the best credit in the world and to create the best credit you can using digital capital.
所以當人們問這家公司是做什麼的時,這家公司將數位資本轉化為數位信用。這些東西值錢嗎?它們當然很有價值。信貸市場規模高達300兆美元。它極其珍貴。關鍵在於我們要創造世界上最好的信貸,並利用數位資本為您創造最好的信貸。
Let's go to the next slide. How do we benchmark ourselves against the other credit alternatives? Well, the bank accounts might give you 40 basis points, the money markets are giving you 360 basis points. Actionable. Insurance companies don't pay tax, and endowments don't pay tax, but actual real people. Families do. Private companies do. Public companies pay tax. The world's full of people that have to pay tax, and so 360 basis points of money markets works out to might be only 180 basis points if you live in New York or California after tax.
我們來看下一張投影片。我們如何將自己與其他信貸替代方案進行比較?銀行帳戶可能給你 40 個基點,而貨幣市場能給你 360 個基點。可執行。保險公司不繳稅,退休基金也不繳稅,但真實的人要繳稅。家人確實會這樣做。私營公司確實如此。上市公司繳稅。世界上有很多人需要繳稅,因此,貨幣市場360個基點的收益,如果你住在紐約或加利福尼亞,稅後可能只有180個基點。
Clearly, what we have here is a yield starved environment. The base rate is and the risk free rate is 360 basis points taxable. And that means that all the conventional credit instruments are pegged to that like mortgage-backed securities, investment-grade bonds, junk bonds. They all traded very small premiums or spreads over that risk free rate. And STRC is paying 11.3% at par, 11.25% at par.
顯然,我們現在面臨的是一個產量極低的環境。基準利率為,無風險利率為 360 個基點,應稅。這意味著所有傳統的信貸工具都與此掛鉤,例如抵押貸款擔保證券、投資等級債券、垃圾債券。他們交易的溢價或價差都非常小,僅高於無風險利率。STRC 的收益率分別為 11.3% 和 11.25%。
And so you can see here that it's 3 times more on a pretax basis. But on a tax equivalent basis, it's like a bank account and in Miami that pays you 18%. It would be much more. It'd be like a bank account to pay you 22% or 23% in New York City or San Francisco. So we think we've been able to create a very compelling credit instrument versus other credit instruments. It's just two to four times better.
所以你可以看到,稅前價格是原來的 3 倍。但從稅收角度來看,它就像一個銀行帳戶,在邁阿密,它可以為你帶來 18% 的收益。數量會更多。這就像在紐約市或舊金山開銀行帳戶,可以給你 22% 或 23% 的利息。因此,我們認為我們已經創造出一種與其他信貸工具相比極具吸引力的信貸工具。它比以前好兩到四倍。
Let's go to the next slide. We don't just benchmark ourselves against other credit instruments. We also benchmark ourselves against all the other non-US dollar currencies. And what you can see here is the US dollar has got a 370-basis-point risk free rate, but the Korean won the Canadian currency, the Euro, Singapore dollars, Japanese yen, Swiss francs, they're much they're much weaker.
我們來看下一張投影片。我們並非僅以其他信貸工具為基準。我們也以所有其他非美元貨幣作為基準。您可以看到,美元的無風險利率為 370 個基點,但韓元兌加元、歐元、新加坡元、日圓、瑞士法郎都大幅貶值。
And so fundamentally, you can think of the Stretch rate as the risk-free rate and the Bitcoin ecosystem. It's like the Bitcoin rate short end of the yield curve. So we are working to find the yield curve, like what's -- if you're willing to accept no guarantee of yield and 10-year duration then you get the Bitcoin rate, which is, right now, 35%, 40%, we expect that going to be 30% over time. But if you want to go to the short end of the yield curve to the one month end, then 11.3% right is the rate.
因此,從根本上講,你可以把拉伸利率看作是無風險利率和比特幣生態系統。這就像比特幣利率在殖利率曲線短端的表現。所以我們正在努力尋找殖利率曲線,例如——如果你願意接受沒有收益率保證且期限為 10 年,那麼你就會得到比特幣的收益率,目前是 35%、40%,我們預計隨著時間的推移會達到 30%。但如果你想選擇殖利率曲線的短期部分,也就是一個月末的殖利率,那麼正確的利率是 11.3%。
We think that this is great. It's just a very compelling opportunity. Clearly, we believe the killer app of digital capital is digital credit. And oftentimes people joke, it takes $100 to understand Bitcoins, maybe it takes 1,000 hours to become a Bitcoin maximalist. It only takes 10 seconds to understand Stretch. Stretch is 11.25% dividend yield paid monthly. That's it, right? It's a 10-second idea.
我們認為這很棒。這確實是一個非常難得的機會。顯然,我們認為數位資本的殺手級應用是數位信貸。人們經常開玩笑說,了解比特幣需要 100 美元,而成為比特幣狂熱分子可能需要 1000 個小時。只要10秒鐘就能理解「伸展」的意思。Stretch 的股息殖利率為 11.25%,按月支付。就是這樣,對吧?這是一個只需10秒鐘就能想出來的點子。
Let's go to the next slide. Okay. Here's the actual four-month snapshot, and this is an interesting comparison, Stretch versus Bitcoin. What's the difference between credit and capital?
我們來看下一張投影片。好的。以下是四個月的實際快照,這是一個有趣的對比,Stretch 與比特幣。信貸和資本有什麼差別?
Well, in the last four months, Bitcoin is traded down 30% through February 1, Stretch is up 1%. And so it doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at this chart. If you're a retiree, if you're a corporate treasurer, if you're a fixed income investor, if you're any kind of investor, and you look at these two charts of your crypto curious, you think you might like Bitcoin. You look at this and you think, well, I like. It I just can't stand the wall. And you can see why do you want 30% draw down and no dividends? Or do you want 1% price appreciation and 5.3% paid dividends with an ongoing 11.25% dividend rate, and with the company ,that's making a commitment to stabilize that price to target 100 and do whatever it takes, including raise the dividend.
在過去四個月裡,截至 2 月 1 日,比特幣下跌了 30%,而 Stretch 上漲了 1%。所以,看懂這張圖表並不需要什麼高深的專業知識。如果你是退休人士,如果你是公司財務主管,如果你是固定收益投資者,如果你是任何類型的投資者,並且你對加密貨幣感興趣,那麼你看了這兩張圖表,你可能會喜歡比特幣。你看到這個,然後想,嗯,我喜歡。我就是受不了這堵牆。所以你現在明白為什麼你想要30%的回撤和沒有股息了吧?或者,你想要1%的股價上漲和5.3%的股息支付,以及持續11.25%的股息率,並且公司承諾將股價穩定在100美元的目標水平,並會不惜一切代價,包括提高股息。
So we believe that what we're doing is expanding the market. We're bringing new capital -- with new forms of investors into the digital asset space. And where we're making -- we're creating sort of a gateway product or an on-ramp to digital assets and digital capital by way of STRC.
所以我們相信我們正在做的是擴大市場。我們正在為數位資產領域引入新的資本——以及新型的投資者。我們正在打造的——我們正在透過STRC打造一種通往數位資產和數位資本的門戶產品或入口。
And of course, we're still very early on. This is like the first five months of seasoning of STRC. We think that after 12 months we'll have a better picture, and clearly, in some cases with credit instruments, people have to see it for two, three, four years before they actually want to buy it.
當然,我們現在還處於非常早期的階段。這就像STRC的前五個月熟成期。我們認為 12 個月後情況會更明朗,而且很明顯,在某些情況下,對於信貸工具,人們需要觀察兩到三年甚至四年才會真正想要購買。
So we think that STRC is going to continue to seize and continue to harden, continue to stabilize, continue to build AUM, build liquidity, and we will continue to make progress on volatility over the coming two, three, four years. So it's a very straightforward exercise on our part.
因此我們認為,STRC 將繼續鞏固和加強,繼續穩定,繼續增加資產管理規模,增加流動性,並且在未來兩到三年、四年內,我們將繼續在波動性方面取得進展。所以對我們來說,這是一項非常簡單的任務。
This is the flagship product of the company. At this point, everything we're doing in the capital structure is to improve the liquidity, decrease the volatility, increase the AUM, increase the credit worthiness, decrease the risk, improve the standing of Stretch, and you can extrapolate what that might mean with everything else that we do going forward.
這是公司的旗艦產品。目前,我們在資本結構方面所做的一切都是為了改善流動性、降低波動性、增加資產管理規模、提高信用評級、降低風險、改善 Stretch 的地位,你可以推斷這對我們未來所做的一切意味著什麼。
Let's go to the next slide. There's a picture of that volatility. We started with a higher vol. We're working it down. We do things like create the USD reserve, we adjust the dividend rate, we do no harm. We don't sell it if it's not at our target. I mean, all of these things are active decisions every day, every minute of the day.
我們來看下一張投影片。這裡有一張反映這種波動性的圖片。我們一開始的音量就比較大。我們正在努力減少它。我們做一些事情,例如建立美元儲備,調整股息率,我們不會做任何有害的事情。如果達不到我們的目標,我們就不會賣。我的意思是,這一切都是每天每時每刻都需要主動做出的決定。
Next. And we're pleased that we are building AUM, it is scaling, and it's not going to be a straight line up into the right. We're going to have good months. We're going to have great weeks. We're going to have bad weeks, we're going to have bad months. That's okay. We're in this for the long term. By the way, the long term means 4 years is the short number, 10 years is the target number, 7 years is the middle.
下一個。我們很高興看到資產管理規模正在成長,並且正在擴大,但這不會是一條直線向上發展的道路。接下來的幾個月會很不錯。接下來的幾週將會非常精彩。我們會經歷糟糕的幾週,也會經歷糟糕的幾個月。沒關係。我們是著眼於長遠發展。順便說一下,長期是指短期,4年是短期,10年是目標,7年是中期。
So as Phong pointed out, we're looking out seven years thinking. Well, we can if we do what we're what we're doing, we can double Bitcoin per share over seven years if we execute well, and then we're looking at this over that seven-year timeframe and thinking about how we actually make this into a truly great -- the greatest credit instrument in the world.
正如 Phong 指出的那樣,我們著眼於未來七年進行思考。如果我們繼續做我們正在做的事情,並且執行得當,我們可以在七年內將比特幣每股價格翻倍。然後,我們將著眼於這七年的時間框架,思考如何才能真正將其打造成為世界上最偉大的信貸工具。
Next slide. Phong had alluded to the fact that it's much more liquid. I think Stretch traded something like nearly $300 million today, a huge number, right? And it's trading consistently above $100 million. That's unheard of.
下一張投影片。Phong曾暗示過,它的流動性更強。我認為Stretch今天的交易額接近3億美元,這是一個巨大的數字,對吧?而且它的交易價格一直穩定在1億美元以上。這簡直是聞所未聞。
A lot of people list perhaps over the counter. They trade $100,000 a day. And then they publicly listed they trade $1 million a day. So these things in the first 12 months were already off the charts by a factor of [$100 million] more.
很多人可能會把這些列為非處方藥。他們每天的交易額為10萬美元。然後他們公開宣布,他們每天的交易額為100萬美元。所以,在最初的 12 個月裡,這些事情的發生率已經遠遠超過了之前的水平,達到了 1 億美元。
And Phong noted, but we didn't dwell on it. We were 33% of the preferred stock issuance last year. We are transforming the preferred equity markets. We're digitally transforming them. We're just like we revolutionized and shook up the convertible bond market until we were the largest convertible bond issuer. We're now shaking up the preferred equity market and becoming the largest preferred equity issuer. It's because we're putting an innovative asset together with an innovative security, together with innovate business strategy, and the way we manage our ATMs, the way we manage our company.
Phong也注意到了這一點,但我們並沒有太多糾結。去年,我們佔優先股發行量的33%。我們正在變革優先股市場。我們正在對它們進行數位化改造。我們就像當年徹底改變和撼動了可轉換債券市場一樣,最終成為最大的可轉換債券發行人。我們正在撼動優先股市場,並成為最大的優先股發行者。這是因為我們將創新的資產與創新的安全措施、創新的商業策略以及我們管理 ATM 的方式、我們管理公司的方式結合起來。
Next. This is a chart we're very proud of. Even though Bitcoin has struggled. If you look at the Bitcoin price, we've been increasing the BTC rating of Stretch even as the Bitcoin price has been falling, right? So we're increasing the collateralization of this. We're decreasing the risk of this. And we're doing it through programmatic, thoughtful risk management on our balance sheet.
下一個。我們非常自豪地發布了這張圖表。儘管比特幣一直舉步維艱。如果你觀察比特幣的價格,你會發現即使比特幣價格一直在下跌,我們仍然提高了 Stretch 的 BTC 評級,對吧?所以我們正在增加這筆交易的抵押品。我們正在降低這種風險。我們正在透過對資產負債表進行系統化、周全的風險管理來實現這一目標。
Next slide. Bitcoin is at 43% ARR, 45% vol asset, digital credit, Stretch is 11.25%, 7% vol, it might jump up to 10% volume sometimes. Maybe we get it down to 5% vol, 4% vol, 3% vol, 2% vol, I don't know where we'll get it, but it seems like it's going to be single digits.
下一張投影片。比特幣的年化收益率 (ARR) 為 43%,波動率為 45%(資產),數位信用額度為 11.25%,波動率為 7%,有時波動率可能會飆升至 10%。也許我們可以把它降到 5% 的波動率、4% 的波動率、3% 的波動率、2% 的波動率,我不知道我們最終能降到多少,但看起來會是個位數。
And then the third layer is digital money. Our view for that is less than 1% vol, 1% vol, 0% vol digital money, you know, can we actually create something that pays 6% to 8%? That's got the roll of all.
第三層是數位貨幣。我們對此的看法是,波動率低於 1%、1%、0% 的數位貨幣,你知道,我們真的能創造出 6% 到 8% 的收益率嗎?這就是全部內容。
We can't do it ourselves. We won't do it, but we welcome partnerships with other companies, with ETFs, with tradfi projects, with banks, with crypto token projects. So a lot of other people can use Stretch and they can step it down. They can make it 80% Stretch, 20% cash.
我們自己做不到。我們不會這樣做,但我們歡迎與其他公司、ETF、交易金融項目、銀行、加密代幣項目建立合作關係。所以很多人可以使用 Stretch,他們可以逐步降低難度。他們可以安排 80% 的款項用於分期付款,20% 的款項用於現金。
People going to step Stretch down, they're going to lever it down. They're going to lever it up. They're going to mix it. They're going to manage. They're going to actively put in management and volatility buffers and liquidity buffers and put it in various regulatory containers.
人們會降低拉伸強度,他們會降低它。他們會利用槓桿效應。他們會把它們混合在一起。他們會撐過去的。他們將積極建立管理緩衝、波動性緩衝和流動性緩衝,並將其置於各種監管框架內。
Next slide. You can deliver digital money as coin like a savings coin. You can deliver it as a fund, a private fund or a public fund, an ETF, or you can deliver it as an account on a crypto exchange or a bank. We welcome all those partnerships. Our view with Stretch is we're going to market it to the general public, we're going to market it to credit investors, we're going to market it to enterprises, we're going to market it to corporate treasurers and corporate CFOs. We're going to offer you two to four times more than your existing treasury strategy, and we're going to also work these OEM relationships in order to build great partnerships so people can create insanely good digital money products based on our digital credit.
下一張投影片。你可以像儲蓄幣一樣以硬幣的形式發放數位貨幣。您可以將其以基金、私募基金或公募基金、ETF 的形式交付,也可以將其以加密貨幣交易所或銀行帳戶的形式交付。我們歡迎所有這些合作關係。我們對 Stretch 的看法是,我們將向一般大眾、信貸投資者、企業、公司財務主管和公司財務長推銷它。我們將為您提供比您現有資金管理策略高出兩到四倍的方案,我們還將利用與 OEM 廠商的關係,建立良好的合作夥伴關係,以便人們能夠基於我們的數位信用創建極其優秀的數位貨幣產品。
Next slide. Quick review of illustrative models. We're looking out seven years. And so, one model is we target 5% BTC yield, then we increase Bitcoin per share by 1.4% over the seven years,. The mid case is we target 10% BTC yield.
下一張投影片。快速回顧範例模型。我們展望未來七年。因此,一種模型是,我們以 5% 的比特幣收益率為目標,然後在七年內將每股比特幣價格提高 1.4%。中間方案是我們的目標是10%的比特幣收益率。
Let's go to that slide. Yeah, 10% BTC yield. In that case, we'll double Bitcoin per share over seven years. And the high end would be a higher yield than we 2.5x Bitcoin per share.
我們來看那張幻燈片。是的,比特幣收益率為10%。那樣的話,我們將在七年內讓每股比特幣的價格翻倍。而高端產品的收益率將高於每股 2.5 倍比特幣。
What is our objective? Our objective is to double your Bitcoin per share over seven years. I mean, I would be disappointed if we don't double Bitcoin per share over a seven-year timeframe. This chart actually shows how the amplification works in practice by selling digital credit. We create an amplification.
我們的目標是什麼?我們的目標是在七年內將您的每股比特幣價值翻倍。我的意思是,如果七年內比特幣每股價格沒有翻一番,我會很失望的。這張圖表實際上展示了透過出售數位信用來實現放大效應的實踐過程。我們製造了一種放大效應。
So if Bitcoin ARR was 10%, we could achieve a 12% to 19% AR%. If Bitcoin was the 30% ARR, we could achieve a 36% to 45% if we execute on our strategy. So clearly, the equity is for vol junkies and performance junkies, they want to outperform. This is how we believe you can best outperform Bitcoin in the most responsible fashion while doing the most good for the world. And for the other in the spectrum for the credit investors that can't stand the vol, they want principal protection and low volume and no currency risk and they want clear yield and they want tax efficient treatment, well then, they have digital credit and Stretch specifically.
因此,如果比特幣的年化收益率 (ARR) 為 10%,我們可以實現 12% 到 19% 的年化收益率 (AR%)。如果比特幣的年化收益率 (ARR) 為 30%,那麼如果我們執行我們的策略,我們可以實現 36% 到 45% 的年化收益率。顯然,股票是為那些追求波動和業績的投資者準備的,他們想要獲得超額收益。我們認為,透過這種方式,您可以以最負責任的方式獲得比比特幣更高的收益,同時為世界做出最大的貢獻。而對於另一類信貸投資者來說,他們無法忍受波動性,他們想要本金保障、低交易量、無貨幣風險、明確的收益以及稅收優惠,那麼,他們可以選擇數位信貸,特別是 Stretch。
Let's go to the next slide. So I would end with this thought, right? Bitcoin is digital capital. We believe in it. We will continue to advocate for it, and for the pure capital investor, you should buy it.
我們來看下一張投影片。所以,我想以這個想法作為結尾,對嗎?比特幣是數位資本。我們對此深信不疑。我們將繼續倡導購買,對於純粹的資本投資者來說,你們應該購買。
Stretch is digital credit. If you don't know what you want but you believe in digital assets and you believe in digital capital, you probably want Stretch? It's 11.25% dividend, paid monthly. Tax deferred. If you're a corporate treasurer, if you're a retiree, if you're -- if you've got money that you need three months from now to pay your kids' tuition, but you want to invest it in more than 2% after tax well then, Stretch is an option for you. So Stretch clearly is the flagship product.
Stretch 是一種數位信用額度。如果你不知道自己想要什麼,但你相信數位資產和數位資本,那你可能想要的是 Stretch?股息率為11.25%,按月支付。稅收遞延。如果你是公司財務主管,如果你是退休人員,如果你——如果你有一筆錢需要在三個月後支付孩子的學費,但你想在稅後獲得超過 2% 的收益進行投資,那麼 Stretch 就是你的選擇。所以很明顯,Stretch是旗艦產品。
And if you believe in the future of digital credit and you want to invest in the company that is making it possible and you would buy our equity and if you do that, you should probably have a seven-year time horizon because we're long-term thinkers. Every day is not going to be a great day every week, every month.
如果你相信數位信貸的未來,並且想要投資實現這一目標的公司,那麼你可以購買我們的股權。如果你這樣做,你可能需要七年的投資期限,因為我們是長遠思考者。不可能每天都是好日子,不可能每週、每個月都是好日子。
If our thesis is wrong for 100 years, the equity won't work, and we'll run out of money to pay the dividends at some point in 100 years. If our thesis doesn't work for 10 years straight, if that doesn't work, then the credit will pay -- the dividends will get paid, the equity won't be a great investment for.
如果我們的理論在 100 年內都是錯誤的,那麼股權投資將無法運作,100 年後的某個時候我們將沒有錢支付股息。如果我們的理論連續 10 年都行不通,如果這行不通,那麼信貸就會得到回報——股息會得到支付,但股權投資就不會很划算。
But if we actually execute and if over the next 7 to 10 years things work out fine, the company is well managed, well collateralized, and responsibly structured so that we can stand difficult months, difficult quarters, even difficult years or two- or three-year cycles at a time. We've done it before, and we're prepared to do it going forward.
但如果我們真的執行,並且在接下來的 7 到 10 年裡一切順利,公司管理良好、抵押充足、結構合理,那麼我們就可以一次性度過艱難的幾個月、幾個季度,甚至幾年或兩三年的周期。我們以前做過,以後也會繼續做。
So with that, thank you, and I think I'll pass over the floor to open Q&A.
那麼,謝謝大家,接下來我將把發言權交給問答環節。
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, Michael. We are now going to proceed to the interactive live Q&A section of our webinar. I would like to welcome all our Q&A guests and invite them to come on video. (Event Instructions)
謝謝你,麥可。現在我們將進入網路研討會的互動問答環節。我謹代表問答環節歡迎所有嘉賓,並邀請他們透過視訊連線參與。(活動須知)
Lance Vitanza, TD.
蘭斯·維坦扎,TD。
Lance Vitanza - Analyst
Lance Vitanza - Analyst
Thank you, all, for taking the questions and for the call. My question is, since the beginning of the year, I can count three weeks over which your Bitcoin acquisitions have generated negative slightly negative but negative Bitcoin yield. Now, I'm all in favor of buying Bitcoin even when times are tough, but shouldn't the goal be to increase Bitcoin per share at all times rather than just increasing the total amount of Bitcoin that you that you own? And maybe you could just talk about the strategy or the thinking that went into those three particular weeks and what that could mean going forward?
感謝各位回答問題並接聽電話。我的問題是,從年初到現在,我可以統計到有三週你的比特幣購買行為產生了負收益,雖然略微為負,但確實是負收益。現在,我完全贊成即使在經濟困難時期也購買比特幣,但是目標難道不應該是始終提高每股比特幣的價格,而不僅僅是增加你擁有的比特幣總量嗎?或許您可以談談那三週的策略或思路,以及這對未來意味著什麼?
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Yeah, we agree with you. We -- those -- we don't aim to reproduce those weeks. The times that we've actually done dilutive transactions on a Bitcoin per share basis where -- if you go back to the crypto winner, when we had to recapitalize some toxic debt on our balance sheet, we took out debt either it was like asset backed loans or senior debt that had EBITDA covenants that we felt were crippling the company's growth prospects. And so we didn't do it enthusiastically, but we did it because over the 10-year timeframe, we knew we needed to remove those toxic elements to our balance sheet.
是的,我們同意你的看法。我們──那些人──我們並不打算重現那些日子。我們曾經以比特幣每股為基礎進行過稀釋性交易——如果你回顧一下加密貨幣贏家,當我們不得不對資產負債表上的一些有毒債務進行過稀釋性交易——如果你回顧一下加密貨幣贏家,當我們不得不對資產負債表上的一些有毒債務進行資本重組時,我們舉債,要么是資產支持貸款,要么是帶有 EBITDA 契約的高級債務,我們認為這些債務正在削弱公司的增長前景。因此,我們並非出於熱情才會這樣做,而是因為我們知道,在 10 年的時間裡,我們需要清除資產負債表上的這些有害因素。
If you look at these three weeks when we took actions that were somewhat diluted, they all were generally associated with building up the US dollar reserve, and we did that in response to analysis and feedback from the market and some reflexive concerns that we wouldn't be able to pay the dividend if the equity capital markets closed us. So we wanted to get ahead of that and address the credit quality.
如果你回顧這三週我們採取的行動(這些行動在某種程度上被稀釋了),它們通常都與增加美元儲備有關,我們這樣做是為了回應市場的分析和反饋,以及一些本能的擔憂,即如果股票資本市場關閉,我們將無法支付股息。所以我們希望搶佔先機,解決信貸品質問題。
So the reason we did it and that the short answer is we do it to improve the creditworthiness of the company. And if we felt that there was a credit problem, we would do it. Right now, we feel that we've built the US dollar reserve to the level where we don't have a credit problem. We're good for the next few years. We don't have any of those other forms of debt, the senior debt or the asset-backed lending. So the balance sheet is in much better shape today.
所以我們這樣做的原因,簡而言之,是為了提高公司的信譽度。如果我們認為有信貸問題,我們就會採取行動。目前,我們認為美元儲備已經達到足以應對信貸問題的水平。未來幾年我們都沒問題。我們沒有其他形式的債務,例如優先債務或資產抵押貸款。因此,目前的資產負債表狀況要好得多。
Going forward, we wouldn't electively or programmatically issue equity to buy Bitcoin if it was going to decrease Bitcoin per share. We're -- we don't think that's a good idea. We would only take those actions when we feel like it's essential to defend the credit of the company because if people lose confidence in the credit, then that will ripple into losing confidence in the equity and then losing confidence in the business model in general. So it's a practical consideration, but I don't think we expect to see anything of that magnitude going forward because the first $2.25 billion of US dollar reserve was a big move.
展望未來,如果發行股票購買比特幣會導致每股比特幣價格下降,我們將不會主動或透過程式發行股票來購買比特幣。我們──我們認為這不是個好主意。只有當我們認為捍衛公司信譽至關重要時,我們才會採取這些行動,因為如果人們對公司的信譽失去信心,那麼就會產生連鎖反應,導致人們對公司的股權失去信心,進而對整個商業模式失去信心。所以這是一個實際的考量,但我認為我們預計未來不會再出現如此大規模的舉措,因為最初的 22.5 億美元美元儲備是一項重大舉措。
Lance Vitanza - Analyst
Lance Vitanza - Analyst
And just if I could just get a follow-up question regarding that $2.5 billion cash reserve, could you -- in theory, could you use that if you chose? Could you use that to redeem the $1 billion of converts that are puttable in September of '27?
我可否再問一個關於那 25 億美元現金儲備的後續問題?理論上講,如果您願意,您是否可以使用這筆錢?您能否用這筆錢贖回 2027 年 9 月可贖回的價值 10 億美元的可轉換債券?
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Yeah, we could. We can use it for any corporate purpose. We could use to pay dividends. We could use it to meet a credit obligation. We could use it to pay interest on a loan. We could use it for whatever.
是的,我們可以。我們可以將其用於任何公司用途。我們可以用這筆錢支付股息。我們可以用它來償還貸款。我們可以用它來支付貸款利息。我們可以把它用於任何用途。
Lance Vitanza - Analyst
Lance Vitanza - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Tom Lee, Fundstrat and Bitcoin.
Tom Lee、Fundstrat 和比特幣。
Tom Lee - Analyst
Tom Lee - Analyst
Hi. Thank you, everybody. Really useful presentation. I took a ton of notes.
你好。謝謝大家。非常實用的簡報。我記了很多筆記。
But I want to ask you a two-part question. I apologize, it's two parts. On slide 53, you talked about quantum vulnerability of Bitcoin. And I apologize, I know it's getting a little nerdy, but I know a lot of people have questions about quantum vulnerability because of course, Bitcoin could upgrade its network. But I know there's three types of wallets that remain quantum vulnerable. One is Satoshi because he used a pay to public key, a really old wallet. And then anyone who's sent Bitcoin reveals their public key. And then, as you know, the Taproot wallets actually are somewhat quantum vulnerable. So I think that's like 25% or 30% of all Bitcoin wallets out there.
但我想問你一個包含兩個部分的問題。抱歉,它分為兩個部分。在第 53 張投影片中,你談到了比特幣的量子脆弱性。我很抱歉,我知道這有點書呆子氣,但我知道很多人對量子漏洞有疑問,因為比特幣當然可以升級其網路。但我知道有三種類型的錢包仍然容易受到量子攻擊。其中一人是中本聰,因為他使用了支付公鑰,一個非常古老的錢包。然後,任何發送過比特幣的人都會公開他們的公鑰。而且,如您所知,Taproot 錢包實際上存在一定的量子安全漏洞。所以我認為這大概佔所有比特幣錢包的 25% 到 30%。
So the part one question is, I know MicroStrategy is a security expert. You have so much experience in security. Could you give us some idea of how Bitcoin and the core developers might think about addressing the quantum vulnerable wallets?
所以第一個問題是,我知道 MicroStrategy 是一家安全專家公司。您在安保方面經驗非常豐富。您能否談談比特幣及其核心開發者可能會如何考慮解決存在量子漏洞的錢包問題?
But the second part is, that's really a small part of story because there's only 4.4 million wallets that have even $10,000 worth of Bitcoin, which means whereas there's almost 1 billion accounts globally that have $10,000 of stocks, bonds, or cash, meaning the world hasn't really adopted Bitcoin yet. And so as you think about the rest of this year, could you give us what you think are some milestones or roadmaps that further drive Bitcoin adoption, which in turn help the price of Bitcoin?
但第二部分其實只是故事的一小部分,因為只有 440 萬個錢包擁有價值 1 萬美元的比特幣,而全球卻有近 10 億個帳戶擁有價值 1 萬美元的股票、債券或現金,這意味著世界還沒有真正接受比特幣。那麼,在展望今年剩餘時間時,您認為有哪些里程碑或路線圖可以進一步推動比特幣的普及,從而推高比特幣的價格?
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
So whether -- we're going to the first, quantum question, I don't think it's appropriate for us to advocate a particular solution or particular approach, nor a particular timeframe. I think that our role is to support all of the various communities and facilitate the evolution of consensus about what should be done, how it should be done, when it should be done. And I think that if you accelerate those and pressurize those processes, you end up solving a bunch of problems that don't exist in a way that maybe are iatrogenic. So we don't have a particular set of policy points that we wish to advocate right now, nor do I think it's really responsible or appropriate for us to do that.
所以,無論——我們來討論第一個量子問題,我認為我們不應該提倡特定的解決方案或特定的方法,也不應該提倡特定的時間框架。我認為我們的職責是支持各個不同的群體,並促進就應該做什麼、如何做、何時做達成共識。我認為,如果你加速這些過程並施加壓力,最終你會以一種可能造成醫源性傷害的方式解決許多原本不存在的問題。所以,我們現在並沒有什麼具體的政策要點想要提倡,而且我認為我們這樣做既不負責任也不合適。
I think that that will be emergent, exactly what should be done. By the way, it's not clear anything should be done ever. It's quite possible we'll actually pop out. You remember, the world was going to end in climate change, death, 26 years ago, and 26 years went by, and none of those things happened. We're going to run.
我認為這將是自然而然形成的,也正是應該做的。順便說一句,目前還不清楚是否應該採取任何行動。我們很有可能真的會突然出現。你還記得嗎? 26年前,人們說世界會因為氣候變遷和死亡而終結,26年過去了,這些事情一件都沒發生。我們要跑了。
Bitcoin was going to boil the ocean, use all the energy on earth as late as 2018, and that never happened. it's possible that whatever happens in the quantum domain will actually improve the security of the Bitcoin network. And inadvertently, before we have to even discuss the protocol change.
比特幣在2018年時還被認為會燒開海洋,耗盡地球上的所有能源,但這並沒有發生。量子領域的任何發展都有可能提升比特幣網路的安全性。而且,在我們甚至還來不及討論協議變更之前,就無意中發生了這種情況。
So I don't think there's any particular policies to be advocating right now other than to support all the various communities and facilitate consensus at the right time to do the right things.
所以我認為,除了支持各個社區並在適當的時候促進共識以做正確的事情之外,目前沒有什麼具體的政策需要提倡。
The second topic is really what are the catalysts for Bitcoin price to improve. I think the fundamental catalysts are regulatory support. We have the most constructive set of financial regulators in the history of the industry right now. The head of the Fed, the head of the Treasury, the head of the CFTC. The head of the SEC, and the White House has a digital assets czar, right? Those five things are massive bull flags. They're all very positive. And generally, you would expect that something good will come probably out of the CFTC or the SEC as they are constructive about facilitating financial companies to innovate in the digital asset space.
第二個話題是,比特幣價格上漲的催化劑是什麼。我認為根本性的催化劑是監管支持。我們現在擁有業內歷史上最具建設性的金融監管機構。聯準會主席、財政部長、美國商品期貨交易委員會主席。美國證券交易委員會主席和白宮都有一位數位資產主管,對吧?這五件事都是巨大的牛市訊號。他們都非常積極樂觀。一般來說,人們會期望美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)或美國證券交易委員會(SEC)能夠帶來一些好的結果,因為他們在促進金融公司在數位資產領域進行創新方面具有建設性作用。
I would have been skeptical about that two years ago, but I think for you to be skeptical about their support for digital innovation today would be ignoring all the words from everybody in those positions.
兩年前我或許會對此持懷疑態度,但我認為,如果你今天還對他們支持數位創新表示懷疑,那就等於無視了所有身居要職的人所說的話。
And I think that the second catalyst will be banking adoption, the formation of the banking credit networks as the large banks and as companies like Schwab they start to allow you to Bitcoin, custody Bitcoin, borrow against Bitcoin. They're going to legitimize the asset, and they're going to decrease the volatility of the asset. They're going to improve the usefulness of the asset.
我認為第二個催化劑將是銀行業對比特幣的接受度,以及銀行信貸網絡的形成,因為大型銀行和像嘉信理財這樣的公司開始允許你使用比特幣、託管比特幣、以比特幣為抵押進行貸款。他們將使該資產合法化,並降低該資產的波動性。他們將提高該資產的利用率。
You're aware of the announcement of the BlackRock Bitcoin Volatility Income Fund that came like about a week ago where they said they were going to sell volatility or generate income. And a of people that speculate that will decrease the volatility of Bitcoin and put more, a more stable floor into the asset.
您應該知道,大約一週前,貝萊德宣布推出比特幣波動率收益基金,他們表示將透過出售波動率來獲取收益。還有一些人推測,這將降低比特幣的波動性,並為這種資產帶來更穩定的基礎。
So I think the actions by big finance, the actions by the big banks and the actions by the financial regulators are the fundamentals. I mean, those are the fundamental things. And if you were to light a candle and pray to the gods of the crypto sphere, you would say, I want pro digital assets regulators. want pro digital assets banks, and I want pro digital assets, financial innovations, like BlackRock's bringing to the market, like we're bringing to the market, right, like STRC. But fundamentally, the industry is going to move forward because of enlightened regulation, engage thoughtful banking, and then innovative finance. And that's what we're doing and that's what we see right now.
所以我認為大型金融機構、大型銀行和金融監理機構的行動才是根本。我的意思是,這些都是最基本的事情。如果你點燃一支蠟燭,向加密貨幣領域的諸神祈禱,你會說,我想要支持數位資產的監管機構,我想要支持數位資產的銀行,我想要支持數位資產的金融創新,就像貝萊德正在帶給市場的,就像我們正在帶給市場的,對吧,就像STRC一樣。但從根本上講,該行業將向前發展,這得益於開明的監管、深思熟慮的銀行業務以及創新的金融。這就是我們正在做的,也是我們現在看到的。
Tom Lee - Analyst
Tom Lee - Analyst
Great. Thank you, Michael.
偉大的。謝謝你,麥可。
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Pete Christiansen, Citi.
Pete Christiansen,花旗集團。
Peter Christiansen - Analyst
Peter Christiansen - Analyst
Thank you. Good evening. Michael, I want to talk about events of the last week. On Friday, the president presented his nominee for next Fed chair, which exacerbated volatility across a number of asset classes, including Bitcoin. The good news is Kevin Warsh is on the tape that Bitcoin is the new gold so that's good. But I guess, my question is, how would strategies capital allocation framework possibly if it would change if the next Fed chair is perceived to be less independent perhaps maybe more tolerant of fiscal dominance. THAT made raise Bitcoin prices short term, but longer term, it may introduce increased rate volatility, which may be a challenge on the funding side. I'm just curious if you have any perspectives on how that might change the capital allocation framework for strategy. Thank you.
謝謝。晚安.邁克爾,我想談談上週發生的事情。週五,總統提名了下一任聯準會主席人選,這加劇了包括比特幣在內的多種資產類別的波動。好消息是,凱文沃什在錄音中表示比特幣是新的黃金,這很好。但我想問的是,如果下一任聯準會主席被認為獨立性較弱,或許對財政主導地位更加寬容,資本配置策略框架可能會如何改變?這可能會在短期內推高比特幣價格,但從長遠來看,它可能會導致利率波動加劇,這可能會給融資方面帶來挑戰。我只是好奇,您認為這可能會如何改變策略的資本配置框架?謝謝。
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
We try to be very reactive to market signals. For example, when our equity trades weak, we don't sell it. When our credit instruments are trading weak, when the cost of credit is too high, we don't sell them. The most obvious is STRC, if it trades below 100, we don't sell it.
我們力求對市場訊號做出快速反應。例如,當我們的股票交易疲軟時,我們不會賣出。當我們的信貸工具交易疲軟,信貸成本過高時,我們就不會出售它們。最明顯的例子是STRC,如果它的交易價格低於100,我們就不會賣出。
So in periods where the marketplace loses confidence in our particular credit instruments, we simply wait. In periods when the mNAV of the equity explodes to 3% or 3.5%, we might sell a $1 billion a day. So when the capital markets are enthusiastic about either the equity or the credit, we react to them. It's above our pay grade to set financial policy.
因此,在市場對我們的特定信貸工具失去信心的時期,我們只需等待。當股票的本益比飆升至 3% 或 3.5% 時,我們一天可能會賣出價值 10 億美元的股票。因此,當資本市場對股票或信貸市場熱情高漲時,我們會做出相對應的反應。制定財務政策超出了我們的職權範圍。
It's even above our pay grade to interpret like the financial policy. Like sometimes, the macroeconomy has one set of numbers and you would think it's good for Bitcoin, but it's bad for Bitcoin. Or another time you would say, well, if they do this, that should be good for us and it's not good for us. And then other times it's the opposite.
即使是像金融政策這樣的東西,也超出了我們的能力範圍。有時候,宏觀經濟出現一組數據,你可能會認為這對比特幣有利,但實際上對比特幣不利。或者你有時會說,如果他們這樣做,這對我們有好處,但實際上對我們沒有好處。而有時情況則恰恰相反。
I think the nice thing about our business is we have the option to do nothing, and we have a set of disciplined capital markets programs. They've moved from being discreet where it's like, well, we got to do a deal this quarter. What's the deal we're going to do in Q3? And we've moved from discreet 144A capital markets programs to continuous ATM type programs. And with the ATMs, if the market thinks that the cost of capital on an instrument like STRF should be 11%, well, we just don't want to sell it. We think it ought to go to 8%.
我認為我們業務的優勢在於我們可以選擇什麼都不做,而且我們還有一套嚴謹的資本市場計畫。他們已經從謹慎行事轉變為公開宣布:“我們這個季度必須完成一筆交易。”第三季我們要達成什麼協議?我們已從獨立的 144A 資本市場計劃轉向持續的 ATM 式計劃。至於 ATM 機,如果市場認為像 STRF 這樣的工具的資本成本應該是 11%,那我們就不想賣它。我們認為應該升至 8%。
So when the market takes STRF to 140 or whatever the price it is that we think is fair, then we will be open to issuing more. And when the market is bearish on those instruments, we don't. And the good thing about the business is if you think Bitcoin is going to fell in a number 30% a year, then our option is just do nothing. And we're a company that's a $45 billion, $50 billion company growing 30% a year. So that's our default.
所以,當市場將STRF的價格推高到140或我們認為合理的任何價格時,我們將考慮增發。當市場對這些工具持悲觀態度時,我們就不會這麼做。這個行業的好處在於,如果你認為比特幣每年會下跌 30%,那麼我們就可以什麼都不做。我們是一家市值 450 億美元到 500 億美元的公司,每年成長 30%。所以這是我們的預設值。
If you think Bitcoin is only going to grow 10% or 20% a year, our default is we just do nothing and we grow at the rate of Bitcoin and we're okay with that. And then if we think that there's something very accretive that's going to be good for the shareholders, then we will participate and we can participate in size 1 million a day, 100 million a day, 1 billion a day.
如果你認為比特幣每年只會成長 10% 或 20%,那麼我們的預設做法就是什麼都不做,我們的成長速度與比特幣的成長速度持平,我們也接受這種現狀。如果我們認為有非常有利於股東增值的項目,那麼我們就會參與,而且我們每天可以參與 100 萬美元、1 億美元、10 億美元。
And the truth is, Pete, sometimes, we get up in the morning, and we basically set up our programs and we think, well, nothing's going to happen today. And then five minutes before the market closes, a lot of stuff happens. It can literally change in 60 seconds. And again, that's beyond our control. We can't control how the markets will interpret all these things.
事實是,皮特,有時候,我們早上起來,基本上安排好一切,然後心想,嗯,今天什麼事都不會發生。然後,在市場收盤前五分鐘,發生了很多事情。它可能在短短 60 秒內發生變化。再說一遍,這超出了我們的控制範圍。我們無法控制市場將如何解讀所有這些事情。
What we can do is set up a rational set of credit structures so that we only issue credit when we think it's in the best interest of the company and we only issue equity when it's in the best interest of the company.
我們可以建立一套合理的信貸結構,以便我們只在認為符合公司最佳利益時才發放信貸,也只在符合公司最佳利益時才發行股權。
Peter Christiansen - Analyst
Peter Christiansen - Analyst
Thank you, Michael. Fair and helpful comments.
謝謝你,麥可。評論公正且有幫助。
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Lyn Alden, Lyn Alden investment Strategy.
Lyn Alden,Lyn Alden投資策略。
Lyn Alden - Analyst
Lyn Alden - Analyst
Thank you for the opportunity. Given the popularity of STRC, my question is focused on that. The company established that USD reserve, which I think shored up the confidence of these products and make them more attractive.
謝謝您給我這個機會。鑑於 STRC 的受歡迎程度,我的問題也集中在這一點上。該公司建立了美元儲備,我認為這增強了人們對這些產品的信心,使它們更具吸引力。
Right now, the USD reserve is on the website 30 months of coverage compared to the dividends of the preferreds. The other preferreds are fixed dividends. STRC is a variable dividend, which introduces some degree of uncertainty around how many months of coverage there are for the total amount of dividends payable. Do you have any kind of views on what you think is an appropriate minimum reserve relative to months of different dividend coverage? Or do you have a kind of a maximum that you'd be willing to pay on a dividend for STRC?
目前,美元儲備在網站上的覆蓋範圍相當於優先股股息的 30 個月。其他優先股均為固定股息。STRC 是一種可變股息,因此在支付的股息總額的覆蓋月份數方面存在一定程度的不確定性。您對不同月份的股利覆蓋率而言,您認為合適的最低儲備金是多少?或者,您對STRC的股息支付是否有一個最高限額?
And then a related question is, we are seeing some kind of early financial products that are out in the market that are looking to potentially leverage STRC given the goal of low volatility and high yield. Are you monitoring the space for leverage built on top of that as it could contribute to spikes of volatility should there be an issue in the market? Do you have any -- would you encourage that kind of thing or would you dissuade leverage from building on top of that increasingly kind of popular product? Thank you.
還有一個相關的問題是,我們看到市場上出現了一些早期金融產品,這些產品旨在利用 STRC 來實現低波動性和高收益的目標。您是否在關注基於此的槓桿空間,因為如果市場出現問題,這可能會導致波動性飆升?您對此有何看法?您會鼓勵這種做法,還是會阻止利用這種日益普及的產品進行開發?謝謝。
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I can start, Lyn. Thanks for the question. First, we said that we target two to three years of dividend coverage with our US dollar reserves, so we wouldn't want it to go below two years. I think three years would be pretty high.
我可以先開始,琳。謝謝你的提問。首先,我們說過,我們的目標是用美元儲備支付兩到三年的股息,所以我們不希望股息支付期限低於兩年。我覺得三年已經很久了。
And as far as whether we think there's a cap to the Stretch rate, we're pretty early on and we're sort of trying to understand what happens every single month at the end of the month. And that's why we have our guidance that we have, right? It's at 11 and a quarter. Could we take it to 12 potentially? But it's going to be a function of how do we keep the price within a tight range, right around that $100 and also a function of what happens to interest rates in general. But I don't think we have a cap right now. We're just going to have to see how this instrument plays out over time. So that's the answer on a Stretch overall.
至於我們是否認為拉伸率有上限,目前還處於早期階段,我們正在努力了解每個月月底會發生什麼。所以我們才有了現在這些指導意見,對吧?現在是11點15分。我們有可能把它增加到12個嗎?但這取決於我們如何將價格控制在100美元左右的狹窄範圍內,也取決於利率的整體走勢。但我認為我們目前還沒有上限。我們只能拭目以待,看看這件樂器最終的表現如何。所以,這就是關於伸展運動的整體答案。
And your second question, remind me.
至於你的第二個問題,提醒我一下。
Lyn Alden - Analyst
Lyn Alden - Analyst
The second question was around, we're seeing kind of early products potentially looking to lever it up for other customers. Do you perceive issues in that? Are you monitoring it? Would you encourage or dissuade that type of activity?
第二個問題是,我們看到一些早期產品可能會考慮推廣給其他客戶。你認為這其中有問題嗎?你們在監視嗎?你會鼓勵還是阻止這種行為?
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think anytime people create products on top of Stretch, there's some products that we've seen like Buck that have been issued that are. They're not levered products, but they're actually reducing the volatility down to about zero, and they're actually showing daily accruals as opposed to monthly accruals.
我認為任何時候人們在 Stretch 的基礎上創造產品,都會出現一些我們已經看到的產品,例如 Buck。它們不是槓桿產品,但實際上將波動性降低到接近零,而且它們實際上是按日計息,而不是按月計息。
So I think those are positive I think the extent people are going to build levered products one we can't release, we're not going to stop them and I think it leveraged adds liquidity adds certain extent interest in stretch and We'll see how it plays out over time, but I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing.
所以我認為這些都是正面的因素。我認為人們會製造槓桿產品,我們不能禁止他們這樣做,我們也不會阻止他們。我認為槓桿可以增加流動性,在某種程度上激發人們對擴張的興趣。我們會看看隨著時間的推移,情況會如何發展,但我並不認為這一定是一件壞事。
Lyn Alden - Analyst
Lyn Alden - Analyst
Thank you for the clarifications.
感謝您的澄清。
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Mark Palmer, Benchmark.
馬克·帕爾默,基準。
Mark Palmer - Equity Analyst
Mark Palmer - Equity Analyst
Thank you. A couple of questions. First of all, we have seen over the last year a tremendous number of new digital asset treasury companies formed, many of them focused on accumulating Bitcoin, others on accumulating other crypto tokens. What is your take on how this industry is likely to evolve in terms of the number of players, whether there's going to be a shakeout, if there is a shakeout, will there be a consolidation? And most importantly, what could this all mean for Strategy as it unfolds? Are there opportunities for the company to take advantage of that dynamic?
謝謝。幾個問題。首先,在過去一年中,我們看到大量新的數位資產管理公司成立,其中許多專注於累積比特幣,有些則專注於累積其他加密代幣。您認為這個產業未來可能會如何發展?參與者的數量會如何改變?是否會出現業界洗牌?如果出現洗牌,是否會出現產業整合?最重要的是,這一切對策略的未來發展意味著什麼?公司是否有機會利用這種動態?
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Yeah, I think every business has to have an operating model that works, that adds value if it's going to grow and prosper.
是的,我認為每個企業要發展壯大,都必須擁有一個行之有效的營運模式,能夠創造價值。
One model is just to provide Bitcoin exposure if people in the country in question can't get it any other way. There are a lot of people in the UK that bought our stock for four years because they just couldn't buy Bitcoin any other way. So if there's a value proposition in Brazil or in France or wherever, then maybe just you can be a simple Bitcoin holder.
其中一種模式是,如果相關國家的人們無法透過其他方式獲得比特幣,則為他們提供接觸比特幣的機會。在英國,許多人連續四年購買我們的股票,因為他們根本無法透過其他方式購買比特幣。所以,如果比特幣在巴西、法國或其他任何地方都有價值,那麼你或許可以成為一個普通的比特幣持有者。
I think another value proposition is to issue digital credit. And you can see that Strive and MetaPlanet have both pursued digital credit. If you're good at it, by the way, you can do digital credit and not be good at it. If you take on debt, you can't pay back, then that doesn't help the company. That hurts the company. But if you're good at digital credit, that could be another case.
我認為另一個價值主張是發行數位信用。你可以看到,Strive 和 MetaPlanet 都推出了數位信用產品。順便說一句,如果你擅長的話,你也可以做數位信貸,即使你不擅長。如果你背負了無法償還的債務,那對公司沒有任何幫助。這會損害公司利益。但如果你擅長數位信貸,那情況可能就不同了。
A third would be anything that uses capital. If these companies, if they want to generate Bitcoin yield, they're going to have to find some way to generate a benefit from the capital. You could underwrite insurance. You could support trading or derivatives trading by posting it as collateral. You can engage in derivatives trading. You could literally become a public company with a lot of capital that trades in the digital derivatives market, posting your Bitcoin as the collateral to take the trade and sell the volatility. It's a different business model.
第三類是任何需要使用資本的東西。如果這些公司想要獲得比特幣收益,他們就必須找到某種方式從資本中獲利。你可以從事保險承保工作。你可以將其作為抵押品,以支持交易或衍生性商品交易。您可以進行衍生性商品交易。你完全可以成為一家擁有大量資本的上市公司,在數位衍生性商品市場上進行交易,用你的比特幣作為抵押品進行交易並出售波動性。這是一種不同的商業模式。
What do I think? I think there's thousands of companies to get launched. Many don't succeed. Some will fail. Some get launched doing one thing and then they evolve into something different. Like look at our company, we evolved, in fact, you could argue that the most successful companies evolved through two, three, four stages in their life cycle. I mean, Apple didn't start out as a phone company for sure. And I think Elon, maybe he ends up being a robot company and not a car company, at Tesla. So I think that the winners will evolve and they'll find a niche.
我的想法是什麼?我認為有成千上萬家公司等待創立。很多人都失敗了。有些人會失敗。有些公司最初從事一種業務,然後逐漸發展成其他類型的公司。看看我們公司,我們不斷成長。事實上,可以說最成功的公司在生命週期中經歷了兩到三個階段的發展。我的意思是,蘋果公司最初肯定不是一家手機公司。我認為伊隆最終可能會把特斯拉變成機器人公司,而不是一家汽車公司。所以我認為,贏家會不斷發展,找到自己的定位。
And I think that the ones that don't evolve, if you're just a holding company, holding Bitcoin, not doing anything with it might you get bought up? Yeah, you might get bought. And would that be good for you?
我認為,如果一家公司只是持有比特幣卻不做任何利用,那麼它不與時俱進,最終可能會被收購?是的,你可能會被收買。那對你有好處嗎?
You're a lot better off -- if you have something people want to buy, for example, Sears, you know, had a future because it had a lot of real estate that somebody wanted to own. And if they didn't own the real estate, it would have been a much worse situation for them. So I think that, you're going to see all sorts of examples now and presumably, thousands and thousands of companies get launched and they all do different things. And we're very embryonic early on like in the first year or two years. 50 years from now, the debate will be who's the best Bitcoin backed insurance company, right? But 20, 30, 40 years from now and that company doesn't even exist right now.
如果你有人們想買的東西,比如西爾斯百貨,你知道,它之所以有未來,是因為它擁有很多有人想擁有的房地產,那你的情況就會好得多。如果他們不擁有這些房產,他們的處境會更糟。所以我認為,你現在會看到各種各樣的例子,而且可以預見的是,成千上萬家公司會成立,它們都做著不同的事情。我們現在還處於非常初級的階段,大概只有一兩年。 50年後,爭論的焦點將會是哪家公司是最好的比特幣支持的保險公司,對吧?但20年、30年、40年後,那家公司可能根本不存在了。
But on the other hand, what about us? Are they opportunities for us? Well, they were an opportunity for Strive. Strive did the deal with similar and they closed it quickly and they were able to build their capital base pretty rapidly. That's -- we see examples of that. There probably will be some mergers and acquisitions of other companies in various space that they put together their various assets in a synergistic way.
但另一方面,我們呢?這些對我們來說是機會嗎?這對 Strive 來說是一個機會。Strive 也進行了類似的交易,他們迅速完成了交易,並很快就累積了資本基礎。我們看到這樣的例子。未來可能會出現一些不同領域的公司進行併購,它們將各自的資產以協同效應的方式整合起來。
Our business is laser-like, monomaniacally focused on one thing right now. We want to make Stretch, STRC, the premier credit instrument in the digital world, the best digital credit in the world and maybe the best credit in the world.
我們的業務就像雷射一樣,目前一心一意地專注於一件事。我們希望將 Stretch (STRC) 打造成數位世界首屈一指的信貸工具,世界上最好的數位信貸,甚至可能是世界上最好的信貸。
If we can create a product that trades with less than 5% vol, that pays you 10% dividend with a stable $100 value and we pay a rock dividend, the question is who would want that? It's like everybody would want that. Why? I mean, why wouldn't you want it? Like what's the demand for that? It's infinite. So effective. If Stretch works, it's the ideal product. And the company that can create treasury credit based on digital capital has the ideal business model.
如果我們能創造出一款波動率低於 5%、股息率為 10%、價值穩定在 100 美元的產品,而且我們支付的股息非常可觀,那麼問題是,誰會想要這樣的產品呢?好像每個人都想要那樣。為什麼?我的意思是,為什麼你不要呢?市場對這種產品的需求量如何?它是無限的。效果顯著。如果Stretch有效,那它就是理想的產品。能夠基於數位資本創造國庫信用的公司擁有理想的商業模式。
And so we generally won't get distracted, right? The number one risk for us is a dilutive distraction. Everything else on our capital structure that undermines the credit of stretch, you know, is a question mark, right? So you have to be thinking about that. And then anything we might do that looks complicated or risky or different, anything that introduces a question in the mind of the stretch investor, can we pay the dividend? That's going to be deemed negative. Anything that introduces a question in the equity investor's mind, can you outperform Bitcoin?
所以,我們一般不會分心,對吧?我們面臨的最大風險是分散注意力,導致股權稀釋。我們資本結構中其他任何會削弱信用擴張能力的因素,你知道,都是一個問號,對吧?所以你必須考慮這個問題。然後,任何看起來複雜、冒險或與眾不同的事情,任何會讓激進投資者產生疑問的事情,例如“我們能支付股息嗎?”這將被視為負面結果。任何會讓股票投資人產生疑問的事情:你能跑贏比特幣嗎?
So generally, we're pretty skeptical on acquisitions because they take a long time. And then you might acquire something that you didn't want that you have to divest and then everybody wants to talk about how and why and how long it takes. And so I don't think -- I wouldn't say it's not a good strategy for other companies and other investors. There are other companies and other investors for which it's a great opportunity for them and they can make a lot of money and they will pursue it and God bless them.
所以總的來說,我們對收購持相當懷疑的態度,因為收購需要很長時間。然後你可能會得到一些你不想要的東西,你不得不賣掉它們,然後每個人都想討論如何、為什麼以及需要多長時間才能賣掉。所以,我不認為——我不會說這對其他公司和其他投資者來說不是一個好策略。還有其他公司和其他投資者認為這是一個絕佳的機會,他們可以賺很多錢,他們會抓住這個機會,願上帝保佑他們。
For us, we believe we've stumbled upon maybe the most promising product, STRC, after 20 capital markets transactions and all sorts of credit instruments, we think we found the best one for us and for the credit investor.
對我們來說,我們相信我們偶然發現了最有前途的產品——STRC。經過 20 筆資本市場交易和各種信貸工具,我們認為我們找到了最適合我們和信貸投資者的產品。
And we think we found a great business model, right? The treasury company, if you can generate return of capital dividends scalably and scale up the issuance of treasury credit, you've got maybe one of the most efficient business models in the world and one of the most compelling products in the world. So we don't want to do anything that would dilute that focus, undermine the credit of the balance sheet, or distract the management team from what we see as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
我們認為我們找到了一個很棒的商業模式,對吧?對於國庫公司而言,如果能夠規模化地產生資本回報股息並擴大國庫信貸的發行規模,那麼你可能就擁有了世界上最高效的商業模式之一,以及世界上最具吸引力的產品之一。因此,我們不想做任何會分散這種專注、損害資產負債表信譽或分散管理團隊注意力的事情,因為我們認為這是一個千載難逢的機會。
Mark Palmer - Equity Analyst
Mark Palmer - Equity Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Larry Lepard, Equity Management Associates.
Larry Lepard,股權管理協會。
Larry Lepard - Analyst
Larry Lepard - Analyst
Yeah, hi. Thanks for having me on, guys. First off, two great things in my view came out of the call. One, the whole guidance on the STRC rate. I mean, that's brilliant. I really love it. And it's going to help people like me who are buying STRC as kind of a solid retirement type of asset to understand where it's going. I have a question related to that, I'd like to put it to the end.
嗨,你好。謝謝你們邀請我來。首先,在我看來,這通通話帶來了兩件非常棒的事情。第一,關於STRC利率的全部指引。我的意思是,這太棒了。我真的很喜歡。這有助於像我這樣將STRC視為一種可靠的退休資產的人了解它的發展方向。我有一個相關的問題,我想把它放在最後問。
The second thing that I thought was really important was the notion that we're going to upgrade. You're going to upgrade and play a leadership role in the technical direction of Bitcoin. I think that's fabulous and a great way of addressing all the FUD around quantum, which I think is probably scared off a few of the bigger institutions who are looking at it. They're kind of saying, hey, who controls this whole thing?
我認為第二件非常重要的事情是,我們要進行升級改造。你將在比特幣的技術方向上進行升級並發揮領導作用。我認為這非常棒,也是解決圍繞量子技術的所有恐懼、不確定性和懷疑(FUD)的好方法,我認為這些恐懼、不確定性和懷疑可能會嚇跑一些正在關注量子技術的大型機構。他們其實是在說,嘿,到底是誰在掌控這一切?
Just back to first principles. I want to just kind of run through how I look at this and see if you as a management team agree. I'm a value investor. look for asymmetry. in my view right now, micro strategy is the most asymmetric value investment in the world. And most people don't understand it. And it's kind of stunning to me. My partner, David Foley, and I did a model, we've done several models and we've looked at it and said, if Bitcoin stays at $50,000 for four or five years, you can't break this company. It's unbreakable.
回歸基本原理。我想簡單談談我的看法,看看你們管理團隊是否同意。我是一名價值投資者,尋找不對稱性。在我看來,目前微觀策略是世界上最具不對稱性的價值投資。大多數人都不理解。這讓我感到非常驚訝。我和我的合夥人大衛·弗利做了一個模型,我們做了好幾個模型,我們研究後說,如果比特幣的價格在四到五年內保持在 5 萬美元,你不可能打垮這家公司。它堅不可摧。
The dilution we calculate, the dilution would maybe be 15% or 20%. So the downside case here in our view is really covered as a result of the fact that the debt's unsecured and the interest rate on it is very, very low. Some of it's convertible as we all know, and the preferred is really equity. So to me, you've got an unbelievable situation. I think a lot of people listening to this call are kind of wondering, hey, what's going on with the stock price? What's going on with Bitcoin?
我們計算出的稀釋倍數可能是 15% 或 20%。因此,我們認為,由於該債務是無擔保的,而且利率非常非常低,所以這裡的下行風險實際上已經受到控制。我們都知道,其中一些是可轉換的,而優先股實際上是股權。所以在我看來,你遇到的情況簡直不可思議。我想很多聽這次電話會議的人都在想,嘿,股價到底怎麼了?比特幣現在到底怎麼了?
My view on that is just that what's going on with Bitcoin is liquidity is really tight. And this is what's going to drive a big print at some time relatively soon. And it's also what's driving the stock market down. And Bitcoin has always been kind of a leading indicator of how much liquidity is out there. so things are tight right now. you see it, gold's getting hit, silver's getting hit. All of a sudden, many assets are getting hit. But we know that the basement trade is alive and well because gold and silver have just been on a tear.
我的看法是,比特幣目前面臨的問題是流動性非常緊張。而這正是近期內將引發大規模印刷事件的原因。而這正是導致股市下跌的原因。比特幣一直以來都是市場流動性的領先指標之一。所以現在流動性很緊張。你看,黃金和白銀都受到了衝擊。突然之間,許多資產都受到了衝擊。但我們知道,地下交易依然活躍且良好,因為黃金和白銀的價格一直在飆升。
And this reminds me very much of 2020 when gold and silver led first and Bitcoin followed harder. Bitcoin went up 6x in October of 2020 after gold had gone up 45% went and pilot pivoted and then COVID came along.
這讓我想起了2020年,當時黃金和白銀率先領漲,比特幣緊隨其後。2020 年 10 月,比特幣上漲了 6 倍,此前黃金上漲了 45%,市場開始轉向,然後新冠疫情爆發了。
So to me, what's going to happen here is this thing is going to be, you know, a 2-bagger, 5-bagger, 10-bagger, and most people don't really understand it. And the reason that's the case is kind of where he said,
所以我覺得,接下來會發生的是,這檔股票會漲兩倍、五倍、十倍,但大多數人並不真正理解這一點。而造成這種情況的原因,正如他所說:
Commodities are very, very hard business to invest in because they have long cycles and the average investor who's being marked quarter to quarter, month to month, year to year, can't show long time preference. He didn't use those words, but he was essentially saying the same thing, which is safe for [Dean's] point. And if you have the long time preference, you realize this is a commodity that has a fixed supply. The asymmetry, it's absolutely blowing my mind. So I just want to say congrats for all you're doing. I think it's a no-brainer that this is going to be a standing upside investment.
大宗商品投資非常非常困難,因為它們的周期很長,而普通投資者按季度、按月、按年計價,無法表現出長期偏好。他雖然沒有用那些詞,但他的意思其實是一樣的,這肯定符合[迪恩]的觀點。如果你有長期投資的偏好,你會意識到這是一種供應量固定的商品。這種不對稱性,簡直讓我嘆為觀止。所以我想對你所做的一切表示祝賀。我認為這絕對是一項長期穩定的投資,這點毋庸置疑。
I do have one specific question related to the Stretch product, and that is this. You're going to adjust it. Okay, so maybe you have to adjust it in a while to get more people to buy it. Fine. At some point, this is going to be a fabulous product. Everybody's going to want it. And if you of set the price at $100, could it ever adjust down? I mean, I'm buying it and I'll probably gift it to my kids because the tax basis will be zero, and I'll never sell it.
我有一個與 Stretch 產品相關的具體問題,那就是:你要調整一下。好吧,或許過段時間你需要做一些調整,才能吸引更多人購買。美好的。從某種意義上說,這將會是一款非常棒的產品。人人都想要它。如果將價格定為 100 美元,它有可能向下調整嗎?我的意思是,我買下它之後可能會把它送給我的孩子,因為它的稅基為零,我永遠不會賣掉它。
Could you think about setting a lower boundary on the yield? I mean, 11%, that's attractive. 9%%, 8%, 7%, those are all attractive. If it got so attractive that the yield on it started to go down to 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, that would be, I mean, if people looking at buying it thinking long, long term might wonder, huh, is there a boundary below which this thing can fall. And we'd be better, we'd be more comfortable buying it if we knew there was such a boundary on the yield.
您能否考慮設定一個收益率的下限?我的意思是,11%,這很吸引人。 9%、8%、7%,這些也都很吸引人。如果它變得如此有吸引力,以至於收益率開始下降到 5%、4%、3%、2%,我的意思是,如果那些考慮長期投資的人可能會想,嗯,它的價格有沒有一個可以跌破的界限。如果我們知道收益率有這樣一個界限,我們會更好,也會更放心購買。
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I --
是的,我--
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Go ahead, Phong.
來吧,Phong。
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I can start, Larry. And we agree with all your points. I think there's a significant misunderstanding of the leverage on the balance sheet and how we're going to service our convertible debt over time and these ideas that if Bitcoin price goes below our cost basis, that becomes an issue.
我可以先開始,拉里。我們完全同意您的所有觀點。我認為大家對資產負債表上的槓桿率以及我們將如何長期償還可轉換債券存在嚴重的誤解,還有人認為如果比特幣價格跌破我們的成本基礎,就會出現問題。
And as I stated, Bitcoin needs to go down to $8,000 a coin and sit there for five years up until 2032 before we really have a problem being able to satisfy the convertible notes, so thank you for pointing that out.
正如我之前所說,比特幣需要跌到每枚 8000 美元,並在那裡維持五年,直到 2032 年,我們才會真正面臨償還可轉換債券的問題,所以感謝你指出這一點。
On the rate on Stretch right now technically the bottom of the rate would be so far but we think of the fact that we get capital from Stretch we put into Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is going to go up on average 30% a year so anything that we pay less than call it twenty percent is a creative to our shareholders.
就目前的Stretch利率而言,從技術上講,利率已經觸底,但考慮到我們從Stretch獲得的資金會投入比特幣,而比特幣平均每年會上漲30%,因此任何低於20%的利率對我們的股東來說都是一種創新。
I don't think it's something where you should sit there. and I think that we're going to drive it down the silver. If Stretch price goes to [$100] and sits at $100, we might take it down a couple percentage points, but I don't think -- and obviously depends on where silver goes but I don't think it's something that someone should think we're going to pull the rug out from under folks and drive it down to 1.
我覺得你不應該坐在那裡。而且我認為我們會把它開到銀色的軌道上。如果 Stretch 價格達到 [$100] 並保持在 $100,我們可能會將其下調幾個百分點,但我認為——這顯然取決於白銀的走勢——但我認為人們不應該認為我們會突然取消大家的預期,將其降至 1。
Larry Lepard - Analyst
Larry Lepard - Analyst
Yeah. I think stating that publicly to you know people who are buying stretch should be important just so people understand. And if you were to say something along the lines of we're not going to let it go below seven or something, because it's going to get to be really popular at some point in time. And those of us who are buying it are buying it with multi-decade timeframes, right?
是的。我認為公開向購買彈性布料產品的消費者說明這一點很重要,這樣人們才能理解。如果你說類似這樣的話:“我們不會讓它低於七點,因為它在某個時候會變得非常受歡迎。”而我們這些購買它的人,都是著眼於數十年的時間跨度來購買的,對吧?
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Yeah. Another point to make is we can't lower the rate more than 25 basis points a month. So we're always going to be very incremental and we would only lower the rate when in such a way that we thought it would stay in that zone of 99 to 101. Like we want to keep it targeted at 100.
是的。另一點要說明的是,我們每月降息幅度不能超過 25 個基點。所以我們總是會採取非常漸進的方式,只有當我們認為利率會維持在 99 到 101 的範圍內時,我們才會降低利率。我們希望將目標維持在 100。
So you might, five years from now, find out that the rational credit spreads that the market assigns us are 300 basis points instead of 600. And that people would like to buy this thing at 400 basis points over so for maybe. But we would very gradually get there and we would still expect STRC to be trading around a $100. And so we're not looking to do anything that is jarring to the price. We want the price to be stable.
所以,五年後你可能會發現,市場給我們設定的合理信用利差是 300 個基點,而不是 600 個基點。人們或許願意以高於 400 個基點的價格購買這件商品。但我們會非常緩慢地實現這個目標,我們仍然預期 STRC 的交易價格會在 100 美元左右。因此,我們不打算採取任何會對價格造成劇烈波動的措施。我們希望價格保持穩定。
As a practical matter, the reason that we would lower the dividend rate would be we had such an avalanche of demand. We had too much demand, and people want to buy infinite, and we don't want to sell infinite because we'll drive the BTC rating of STRC down. Like if hypothetically someone said, I want to buy a $100 billion of STRC tomorrow, you can see how we don't want to sell it because, because then that reflexive and that would undermine the credit quality and that would increase the volatility and that kind of works against everything.
實際上,我們降低股息率的原因是需求量激增。需求量太大,人們想無限量購買,但我們不想無限量出售,因為這會拉低 STRC 的 BTC 評級。假設有人說,我明天想買價值 1000 億美元的 STRC,你就能明白我們為什麼不想賣掉它,因為那樣會產生連鎖反應,從而損害信用質量,增加波動性,這對一切都不利。
So luckily for us, and practically, that's not going to happen. Like, yeah, they say, you know, it's good that we have time because otherwise everything would take place at the same time, all at once. All at once. We don't want stuff to happen all at once. So it will happen progressively. We'll be very thoughtful about it.
所以幸運的是,實際上,這種情況不會發生。是啊,他們說,你知道,我們有時間是件好事,否則所有事情都會同時發生。一下子。我們不希望所有事情同時發生。所以它會逐步發生。我們會認真考慮的。
Our goal is always for it to be extremely compelling to attract capital. And at the point where we feel like we've got too much capital, it would be a circumstance, Larry, where there was massive success of STRC and Bitcoin was lagging and MSTR equity premium was lagging. And there's that weird situation where it's hard for the company to increase its collateral base in order to back the credit. And then we would say, we have too much demand for the credit, so we need to click it down. But if there's over demand for the credit, it would still be pegged at 100. And we take it down 25 basis points.
我們的目標始終是使其具有極強的吸引力,從而吸引資本。而當我們感覺到資本過剩時,拉里,這種情況就是STRC取得了巨大成功,而比特幣卻表現不佳,MSTR的股權溢價也表現不佳。還有一種奇怪的情況,就是公司很難增加抵押品基礎來支持信貸。然後我們會說,信貸需求太大了,所以我們需要降低信貸額度。但如果信貸需求過剩,利率仍將維持在 100%。我們將其降低 25 個基點。
We're going to responsibly manage this so as to minimize volatility, maximize stability. And in all likelihood, it's going to be excessively compelling in terms of dividend rate for quite a while, because even though you believe in Bitcoin is collateral, and I believe in Bitcoin is collateral, we've got a lot of work to do with credit rating agencies and the Basel rules and traditional finance establishment before they recognize it as being good collateral. And as long as they don't, then that means probably the spreads are going to stay pretty compelling.
我們將負責任地管理此事,以最大限度地減少波動,最大限度地提高穩定性。而且很有可能,在相當長的一段時間內,它的股息率將極具吸引力,因為即使你相信比特幣是抵押品,我也相信比特幣是抵押品,但在信用評級機構、巴塞爾協議和傳統金融機構承認它是良好的抵押品之前,我們還有很多工作要做。只要這種情況不發生,那就意味著價差可能會保持相當有吸引力。
Larry Lepard - Analyst
Larry Lepard - Analyst
Thank you very much. Really appreciate it.
非常感謝。非常感謝。
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Andrew Harte, BTIG.
Andrew Harte,BTIG。
Andrew Harte - Equity Analyst
Andrew Harte - Equity Analyst
Hey, thanks for taking my question. So it'd be great to hear some examples of some of the doors that have been open since strategy got a credit rating. Back in the fall, I think it's opened potentially open doors to pension funds, insurance companies, and other really large institutional investors. And Michael, before we got on this webcast, you said something like times today that we're seeing with Bitcoin is when people are looking for insight and leadership. I guess, who better to ask, right? What is your expectation for conversations with these new potential investors with these really large pools of capital? If you could also shed some light on how the conversations to date, since you've gotten that credit rating have evolved. Thanks.
嘿,謝謝你回答我的問題。所以,如果能聽到一些自從策略獲得信用評級以來,哪些機會之門已經敞開的例子,那就太好了。去年秋天,我認為這為退休基金、保險公司和其他大型機構投資者打開了潛在的大門。邁克爾,在我們開始這次網路直播之前,你曾說過,我們現在看到的比特幣時代,正是人們尋求洞察力和領導力的時代。我想,還有誰比他們更適合回答這個問題呢?您對與這些擁有巨額資金的潛在新投資者的對話有何期待?如果您還能簡要說明一下,自從您獲得信用評級以來,雙方的對話是如何發展的,那就太好了。謝謝。
Andrew Kang - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Andrew Kang - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, I covered --
是的,我負責報道。--
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sorry. Go ahead, Andrew.
對不起。請繼續,安德魯。
Andrew Kang - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Andrew Kang - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
I was going to start and Phong, please jump in. Andrew, thank you for the question. I think the process with the rating agencies was an excellent process. I think we've noted that we've had a credit rating in the past. It was more based on the legacy business. This is the first time a Bitcoin treasury company with a framework specific to that was rated by a major credit agency.
我正要開始,Phong,請你插話。安德魯,謝謝你的提問。我認為與評級機構的合作過程非常出色。我想我們已經提到過,我們過去曾有過信用評級。它更多是基於傳統業務模式。這是第一個擁有專門針對比特幣交易的框架的比特幣金庫公司獲得主要信用評級機構的評級。
I think overall, the reaction has been what we had expected. Like there is now a public profile that investors can look to. It is opening up, I think, interest. I think it's still early though, right? I think a lot of us that have been in these types of markets know that the credit rating agencies take time to develop. I think we noted earlier in the presentation that we believe we've made strides since the relaunch of the rating that will continue to make progress.
總的來說,我認為大家的反應符合我們的預期。現在投資人可以參考公開的資料了。我認為這會激發人們的興趣。我覺得現在還為時過早,對吧?我認為,很多身處這類市場的人都知道,信用評級機構需要時間才能成長。我認為我們在先前的演示中已經提到,我們相信自從評級重新推出以來,我們已經取得了長足的進步,並將繼續取得進展。
I think there's more to do in that sense. It's of created a little bit of a floor, so to speak, because everything we do here will be incrementally increasing the capital base. It'll increase our ability to strengthen our balance sheet.
我認為在這方面還有更多工作要做。可以說,這為資本基礎創造了一個底線,因為我們在這裡所做的一切都將逐步增加資本基礎。這將增強我們改善資產負債表的能力。
And so I think in the long run, it may take longer than it would take a near term action, but I think that there's possible upside. I think that will continue to drive more large institutional demand. And to answer your question, I think that the reaction from the investor base has been net positive and certainly, the cash reserve has added onto that as well.
所以我認為從長遠來看,這可能比短期行動需要更長的時間,但我認為有潛在的好處。我認為這將繼續推動更多大型機構的需求。至於你的問題,我認為投資者的反應總體上是正面的,現金儲備也確實為此做出了貢獻。
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you. Mike, do you want to cover the second question or just general Bitcoin?
謝謝。麥克,你是想回答第二個問題,還是只想談談比特幣的整體情況?
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Just restate the question again.
請你再複述一次問題。
Andrew Harte - Equity Analyst
Andrew Harte - Equity Analyst
I was wondering how the conversations you've had with these really large pools, really large investors have come along. then, you know, before we got on, said times like this is when people are looking for insight and leadership. And so as you continue to have those conversations with people that are new to Bitcoin. What do you tell them in a day like today?
我想知道你與這些大型基金、大型投資人的對話進展如何。你知道,在我們開始之前,你說過,像現在這樣的時期,人們正需要真知灼見和領導力。所以,當你繼續與那些剛接觸比特幣的人進行這些對話時。在今天這樣的日子裡,你會對他們說什麼?
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
I think we've got an unprecedented number of invitations to financial conferences and meetings with investors in general. And I think that the amount of interest in this topic explodes. when the volatility explodes, the engagement explodes.
我認為我們收到了前所未有的金融會議和投資者會議邀請。我認為,當市場波動性加劇時,人們對這個主題的興趣也會激增。
What I would tell them is the same. We've kind of said for a while, Bitcoin's capital investment, your time horizon needs to be minimal four years. I would actually say look at the moving four-year, the simple moving 200-week average, the 200-week simple moving average or the four-year average. And I would invest like with a four-year DCA, dollar cost averaging type approach if you're going to invest in Bitcoin.
我會告訴他們同樣的話。我們之前說過,對於比特幣的資本投資,你的投資期間至少要四年。我建議看看四年移動平均值、200 週簡單移動平均值、200 週簡單移動平均值或四年平均值。如果你打算投資比特幣,我會採取四年期定投(DCA)策略。
And you really want to have the intent to hold the asset for a decade. And if you can't wait a decade with no cashflow, and if you can't stand the volatility, then I would say you ought to buy the credit.
而你真的應該有持有該資產十年的意願。如果你無法忍受十年沒有現金流的日子,也無法承受市場波動,那麼我建議你買信貸。
If you believe in digital assets or digital capital, you believe in Bitcoin, but you can't stand to wait for a decade and take the vol, you should buy the credit and just take the 11% tax deferred with much, much less volatility and with someone else stomaching the pain for you. And so I think it's kind of simple, right?
如果你相信數位資產或數位資本,相信比特幣,但你無法忍受等待十年並承受波動,你應該購買信用額度,享受 11% 的稅收遞延,波動性要小得多,而且有人替你承擔損失。所以我覺得很簡單,對吧?
You're -- you either don't believe in Bitcoin at all, and then you don't want the credit or the capital or, know, or you believe in Bitcoin as a maxi and you want the equity because you want to expect or you want Bitcoin as a sovereign, censorship resistant, long-term store of value to give to your great grandkids who may be living in a country you don't even live in right now, and you want to self-custody, then you buy the Bitcoin.
你要嘛完全不相信比特幣,那麼你既不想要信用,也不想要資本,或者,你知道,你相信比特幣是一種巨大的財富,你想要股權,因為你想有所期待,或者你想把比特幣作為一種主權的、抗審查的、長期的價值儲存手段,留給你的曾孫輩——他們可能生活在你現在都不居住的國家——而且你想保管自己。
Or you just think all this stuff looks really good, but you need the money back in September, then you think about the credit, right? And specifically the treasury credit, because the other credit instruments are too complicated. So I would say we're really at this point, pitching the credit, treasury credit as the first step in a Bitcoin journey for a traditional or conventional investor who believes in digital assets.
或者你覺得這些東西看起來都很不錯,但你需要在九月收回資金,然後你就會考慮信用問題,對吧?具體來說,就是國庫信貸,因為其他信貸工具太複雜了。所以我覺得我們現在真正要做的,是向相信數位資產的傳統投資者推廣國債信用,作為他們比特幣之旅的第一步。
Andrew Harte - Equity Analyst
Andrew Harte - Equity Analyst
Thank you, Michael.
謝謝你,麥可。
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
And we're pitching it to a lot of people. We're talking to a lot, right? So there's a lot of conversations. if anything, the volatility right here is the kind of the reason why you might want to have a product like STRC. If you're wondering, what's the justification? Well, just look at the two charts next to each other, and you figure out why you might want the credit instrument.
我們正在向很多人推廣它。我們跟很多人說話,對吧?所以有很多討論。如果說有什麼原因的話,那就是當前的市場波動性正是您可能需要像STRC這樣的產品的原因。如果你想知道的話,理由是什麼?你只要看看並排的兩張圖表,就能明白為什麼你需要這種信貸工具了。
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Dan Hillery, Buck.
丹·希勒里,巴克。
Dan Hillery - Analyst
Dan Hillery - Analyst
Hi, Shirish. Thanks for having me on, guys. So my question is as follows. The de-equitization of the convertible notes has seemed to be a bit of a headwind for the cost of capital across all the preferred equities. And if MSTR continues to trade below the convertible note conversion price, how many months before the put date would you guys consider refinancing or retiring the converts at a discount in order to lower the cost of capital across all the digital credit instruments?
你好,Shirish。謝謝你們邀請我來。所以我的問題如下。可轉換債券的非股權化似乎對所有優先股的資本成本構成了一定的不利影響。如果 MSTR 繼續以低於可轉換債券轉換價格的價格交易,那麼在贖回日之前多少個月,你們會考慮以折扣價對可轉換債券進行再融資或贖回,以降低所有數位信貸工具的資本成本?
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dan, we went through this in 2022 during Bitcoin winter, and our converts were at some point in time trading at $35 each and --
丹,我們在2022年比特幣寒冬期間經歷過這種情況,我們的轉換幣一度跌至每枚35美元。--
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
We can use $0.35 or $0.40 on the dollar.
我們可以使用 0.35 美元或 0.40 美元兌 1 美元。
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
$0.35 on the dollar. And we had considered whether it made sense to call -- to buy some of those back. And it never really made a lot of sense, especially if you live in a world where you think Bitcoin price is going to go up. So the converts aren't really this big overhang for us.
每美元0.35美元。我們曾考慮過是否該打電話——把其中一些股票買回來。而且這其實從來就沒什麼道理,尤其是在你以為比特幣價格會上漲的世界。所以,這些新成員對我們來說並不是一個很大的負擔。
And as I mentioned, you'd need Bitcoin price to go down to $8,000 and sit there for five, six years before it really becomes a problem. So it's not really something that we think about a lot of whether we're going to buy back any of the converts or if we're going to do something early with them right now.
正如我之前提到的,比特幣的價格需要跌到 8000 美元,並在那裡維持五到六年,才會真正成為一個問題。所以,我們並沒有過多考慮是否要回購任何已轉化的股份,或者現在是否要對他們採取一些早期行動。
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board
So I would say a year before we have a put event or a year before we have a redemption event, we certainly look at it and we look at the statistical likelihood of anything and then we evaluate whether or not it makes sense to refinance or hedge or mitigate anything. And if we were to do it, we would want to do it six months before the event took place. So right now, we're still far out of that window and it's not clear there's any event.
所以我想說,在發生賣出事件或贖回事件的前一年,我們肯定會進行考察,考察任何事情的統計可能性,然後評估再融資、對沖或減輕任何風險是否有意義。如果我們要做這件事,我們希望在活動舉辦前六個月完成。所以現在,我們離那個時間窗口還很遠,目前還不清楚是否會有任何事件發生。
The last time I looked at one of our puts, the one that was coming due earliest, the bond was already above par and so there is no risk to it. Certainly, when you're more than one year out, it's all hypothetical worrying about something that's unlikely to ever happen. When you get to one year out, you have to consider whether there's a risk, and then we're certainly not going to wait till one month before, before we deal with the risk. We wouldn't wait till the last few weeks or the last few months. We would probably do it with a few quarters buffer at the latest, which means we start thinking about a year before.
我上次查看我們的一份看跌期權(最早到期的那份)時,債券價格已經高於面值,因此沒有風險。當然,如果距離婚禮還有一年多的時間,那麼所有擔憂都只是假設,擔心一些不太可能發生的事情。提早一年的時候,你必須考慮是否有風險,我們當然不會等到接近一個月才去處理風險。我們不會等到最後幾週或最後幾個月。我們最遲可能會預留幾季的緩衝時間,這意味著我們要提前一年開始考慮。
Dan Hillery - Analyst
Dan Hillery - Analyst
That answered my question. Thanks.
我的疑問得到了解答。謝謝。
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations
Great. Thank you, everyone. This concludes the Q&A portion of the webinar. I would like to thank all the guests for their questions and all the attendees for tuning in live.
偉大的。謝謝大家。網路研討會的問答環節到此結束。我要感謝所有賓客提出的問題,以及所有收看直播的觀眾。
We had over 3,000 people join us live on Zoom webinar, over 4,000 people on YouTube livestream, and over 180,000 views on X livestream, so this should be one of the most viewed earnings call in our history. So appreciate all your interest and curiosity and thank you.
超過 3000 人透過 Zoom 網路研討會即時參與,超過 4000 人透過 YouTube 直播參與,超過 18 萬次透過 X 直播觀看,因此這應該是我們歷史上觀看次數最多的財報電話會議之一。非常感謝大家的關注與好奇。
I would like to now turn the call over to Phong for final closing remarks.
現在我將把電話交給 Phong,請他作最後的總結發言。
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Phong Le - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Look, I want to echo everyone's thoughts. Thank you for the analysts for joining us. Thank you for everybody for dialing into the call and listening. And thanks for those who are joining us online. I invite you all to join us in Las Vegas, February 23, 25 at Strategy World and Bitcoin for Corporations. And if we don't see you there, we'll see you again in three months in our next earnings call. Thanks, everyone.
我想附和大家的想法。感謝各位分析師的參與。感謝各位撥入電話會議並收聽。感謝各位線上參與。我誠摯邀請各位於2月23日及25日蒞臨拉斯維加斯,參加「戰略世界」和「企業比特幣」大會。如果您屆時未能參加,我們將在三個月後的下一次財報電話會議上再次與您見面。謝謝大家。