Strategy Inc (MSTR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

MicroStrategy 最近舉辦了一次網路研討會,討論了他們的比特幣策略、財務表現和融資活動。在網路研討會期間,他們強調了其持有的大量比特幣,並宣布了一項新的 420 億美元資本計劃。該公司報告軟體收入下降,但雲端訂閱服務有所成長。

他們還討論了比特幣持有量、優先股發行和債務到期計劃。講者強調了與比特幣和最大化股東價值相關的不同融資策略的重要性。 MicroStrategy 為投資者提供了比比特幣更合規和信用的優勢。他們專注於透過智慧槓桿實現股東價值最大化,並根據市場情況調整 BTC 財務營運。

在網路研討會期間,演講者也討論了上市公司使用比特幣作為抵押品發行投資等級固定收益證券的可能性。 Phong Le 介紹了融資的最新情況,並強調了 BTC 財務框架的重要性。

總體而言,網路研討會為 MicroStrategy 對比特幣的態度、財務策略和融資活動提供了寶貴的見解。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations

    Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations

  • I'll now walk you through the agenda for today's call. First, Phong Le will cover the business highlights for the first quarter of 2025. Second, Andrew Kang will cover the financial results for the first quarter of 2025. And then Michael Saylor will provide an in-depth strategic review of our Bitcoin Treasury Strategy. And lastly, we will open it up to Q&A.

    我現在將向大家介紹今天電話會議的議程。首先,Phong Le 將介紹 2025 年第一季的業務亮點。其次,Andrew Kang 將介紹 2025 年第一季的財務表現。然後,邁克爾·塞勒 (Michael Saylor) 將對我們的比特幣財務策略進行深入的策略評估。最後,我們將開放問答環節。

  • With that, now I'll turn the call over to Phong Le, President and CEO of Strategy.

    現在,我將把電話轉給 Strategy 總裁兼執行長 Phong Le。

  • Phong Le - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Phong Le - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Shirish. Hello, everyone. I'd like to welcome all of you to today's webinar. With just a few days to go, I'm excited to invite you all to Strategy World 2025. Next week, May 5 through 8th in Orlando, Florida. Sure you may want, thank you.

    謝謝你,Shirish。大家好。歡迎大家參加今天的網路研討會。距離高峰會僅剩幾天時間,我很高興邀請大家參加 2025 年策略世界大會。下週,5 月 5 日至 8 日在佛羅裡達州奧蘭多。當然,你可能想要,謝謝。

  • Come meet our software customers, partners, and employees, explore our innovations in AI and BI and engage with global corporate and thought leaders shaping the future of Bitcoin for corporations. You can visit our website to register if you haven't already, and I look forward to seeing many of you in Orlando.

    來見見我們的軟體客戶、合作夥伴和員工,探索我們在人工智慧和商業智慧方面的創新,並與全球企業和思想領袖一起塑造企業比特幣的未來。如果您還沒有註冊,可以訪問我們的網站進行註冊,我期待在奧蘭多見到你們。

  • Moving on to the Bitcoin highlights for Q1 2025, strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world, now holding 553,555 Bitcoins, with the total Bitcoin market value of $52 billion as of April 28th. In the first four months of 2025, we acquired an additional 106,085 Bitcoin for a total purchase cost of $9.9 billion an average price of approximately $93,600.

    展望 2025 年第一季的比特幣亮點,該策略仍然是世界上最大的比特幣企業持有者,目前持有 553,555 個比特幣,截至 4 月 28 日,比特幣總市值為 520 億美元。2025 年頭四個月,我們又收購了 106,085 個比特幣,總購買成本為 99 億美元,平均價格約為 93,600 美元。

  • In Q1 2025, Bitcoin's momentum accelerated meaningfully, driven by a series of landmark government actions. Most notably, the Trump administration announced the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This bold move marked the first time a sovereign government publicly recognized Bitcoin as a national reserve asset.

    2025 年第一季度,在一系列具有里程碑意義的政府行動的推動下,比特幣的發展勢頭顯著加速。最值得注意的是,川普政府宣佈建立戰略比特幣儲備。這一大膽舉措標誌著主權政府首次公開承認比特幣為國家儲備資產。

  • In parallel, the administration's broader pro Bitcoin regulatory stance has further legitimized the asset class and attracted heightened institutional interests, setting the stage for deeper integration of Bitcoin into the US financial system.

    同時,美國政府更廣泛的支持比特幣監管立場進一步使該資產類別合法化,並吸引了越來越多的機構興趣,為比特幣更深層地融入美國金融體系奠定了基礎。

  • On the capital markets front, we have also made significant progress. In the first quarter of 2025 and quarters to date, in Q2 2025, we raised $6.6 billion net proceeds through our at the market or ATM equity offering program and raised $2 billion through the issuance of a convertible note offering.

    在資本市場方面,我們也取得了重大進展。在 2025 年第一季及迄今為止的幾個季度中,即 2025 年第二季度,我們透過市場或 ATM 股票發行計劃籌集了 66 億美元的淨收益,並透過發行可轉換票據籌集了 20 億美元。

  • We also raised $1.4 billion through our newly listed preferred stock, Strike and Strife. We expect to continue issuing innovative fixed income securities and seek to enable our common stock to outperform Bitcoin via intelligent leverage.

    我們也透過新上市的優先股 Strike 和 Strife 籌集了 14 億美元。我們預計將繼續發行創新的固定收益證券,並尋求透過智慧槓桿使我們的普通股表現優於比特幣。

  • Strategies added to its balance sheet in every single quarter since August 2020, across 60 plus announcements and 100% of our Bitcoin holdings remain fully unencumbered, demonstrating our long-term conviction and unmatched consistency in executing our Bitcoin strategy. This makes us the most committed corporate holder of Bitcoin globally, representing 2.6% of all Bitcoin in existence.

    自 2020 年 8 月以來,我們每季都會將策略添加到資產負債表中,已發布 60 多個公告,我們 100% 的比特幣持有量仍然完全不受限制,這表明了我們在執行比特幣策略方面的長期信念和無與倫比的一致性。這使我們成為全球最堅定的比特幣企業持有者,佔現有比特幣總量的 2.6%。

  • As the chart shows, our pace of accumulation accelerated meaningfully over the past two quarters, reflecting both market opportunity and strong treasury operations execution. As the world's first and largest Bitcoin treasury company, we remain hyper-focused on capital markets innovation and our Bitcoin operations to strategically accumulate more Bitcoin.

    如圖所示,過去兩季我們的累積速度顯著加快,反映了市場機會和強勁的財務營運執行力。身為全球首家也是最大的比特幣財務公司,我們始終高度關注資本市場創新和比特幣業務,以策略性地累積更多比特幣。

  • We've now utilized $37.3 billion of capital to increase our Bitcoin holdings and drive shareholder value. That capital was acquired through three primary mechanisms. First, $10.6 billion of debt issuances, of which $8.2 billion in aggregate principle is outstanding. And second, $1.4 billion in perpetual preferred equity through Strike and strife, reflecting investor demand for both yield and Bitcoin-linked instruments. Third, $25.9 billion of Class A common stock issuances, and fourth, $836 million of cash flows from software operations.

    我們現在已經利用 373 億美元的資本來增加我們的比特幣持有量並提高股東價值。該資本是透過三種主要機制獲得的。首先,發行106億美元的債務,其中未償還本金總額為82億美元。其次,透過 Strike and strife 發行 14 億美元永久優先股,反映了投資者對收益和比特幣掛鉤工具的需求。第三,發行259億美元的A類普通股;第四,軟體業務產生的現金流量8.36億美元。

  • As we reflected in this quarter's capital markets activity, 2025 continues the momentum we built in late 2024, with $10 billion already raised year-to-date through a diversified mix of securities. This included $6.6 billion in equity and $3.4 billion in fixed income instruments, demonstrating the breadth of our investor support and the strength of our market access. These offerings reflect our ability to tap multiple capital sources efficiently and strategically.

    正如我們在本季的資本市場活動中所反映的那樣,2025 年將延續我們在 2024 年底建立的勢頭,今年迄今已透過多元化證券組合籌集了 100 億美元。其中包括 66 億美元的股票和 34 億美元的固定收益工具,展現了我們投資者支持的廣度和市場准入的強度。這些產品反映了我們有效且策略性地利用多種資本來源的能力。

  • Q1 demonstrated that the $18.1 billion raised in Q4 wasn't a one-off. We're operating at a new baseline. Rather, it represents the foundation of our evolving and scalable capital strategy. In terms of the largest treasuries in the world, we've gone from virtually negligible to now the 13th largest in treasury compared to the S&P 500 universe, entirely through our Bitcoin holdings, and we're growing fast. Over the next two to four years, we believe we have the potential to surpass many of the companies ahead of us on this list, continuing to scale our Bitcoin treasury with conviction and discipline.

    Q1 顯示第四季籌集的 181 億美元並非一次性的。我們正在一個新的基準上運作。相反,它代表了我們不斷發展和可擴展的資本策略的基礎。就世界上最大的國債而言,我們已經從幾乎可以忽略不計發展到現在與標準普爾 500 指數相比排名第 13 位,這完全是透過我們的比特幣持有實現的,而且我們正在快速增長。在接下來的兩到四年裡,我們相信我們有潛力超越這份名單上的許多公司,繼續堅定信念、自律地擴大我們的比特幣儲備。

  • Five years ago, when we embarked on the Bitcoin journey, we were the only corporation with the courage and conviction to do so. Today, there are over 70 publicly listed companies globally holding over 700,000 Bitcoin who are adopting our playbook. There are newer corporate entrants adopting Bitcoin, and some are recurring Bitcoin stackers like us.

    五年前,當我們踏上比特幣之旅時,我們是唯一一家有勇氣和信念這樣做的公司。如今,全球有超過 70 家上市公司持有超過 70 萬比特幣,並且正在採用我們的策略。有一些較新的企業開始採用比特幣,還有一些像我們一樣是比特幣的常客。

  • We welcome all corporates to Bitcoin and are extremely proud to see Bitcoin treasury companies emerging in the US, Japan, India, France, and other countries.

    我們歡迎所有企業加入比特幣,並非常自豪地看到比特幣財務公司在美國、日本、印度、法國和其他國家湧現。

  • We believe our unique attributes and track record of transparent investor relations, conviction in our Bitcoin strategy, innovative offerings, high volatility, combined with the scale of our Bitcoin holdings will continue to differentiate us.

    我們相信,我們獨特的屬性和透明的投資者關係記錄、對比特幣策略的信念、創新的產品、高波動性以及我們持有的比特幣規模將繼續使我們脫穎而出。

  • Since we adopted our Bitcoin strategy in 2020, micro strategy stock has outperformed every major asset class in every S&P 500 company, appreciating 2,870 2,887% today. To put that in perspective, Bitcoin itself is up 692%. The S&P 500 has risen just 65% over the same period. And while Nvidia has been the top performing S&P 500 stock during this period, with an 874% gain, we've outperformed Nvidia by more than 3X. It's not even close.

    自 2020 年我們採用比特幣策略以來,微策略股票的表現優於標準普爾 500 指數成分股公司的所有主要資產類別,如今上漲了 2,870 至 2,887%。從這個角度來看,比特幣本身上漲了 692%。標普 500 指數同期僅上漲了 65%。雖然 Nvidia 在此期間一直是標準普爾 500 指數中表現最好的股票,漲幅達 874%,但我們的表現比 Nvidia 高出 3 倍多。根本就不接近。

  • If you look at the last 12 months, we've similarly outperformed all the largest companies, as well as all the key indices. And if you look at the last three months, when the broader market when the broader macro markets witnessed the most volatility since 2020, we still managed to outperform the magnificent seven and key indices.

    如果回顧過去 12 個月,我們的表現同樣優於所有最大的公司以及所有關鍵指數。如果你回顧過去三個月,當大盤,當宏觀市場經歷了自 2020 年以來最劇烈的波動時,我們仍然成功跑贏了七大主要指數。

  • Our performance metrics speak to the uniqueness and strength of our position in the market. Since launching our Bitcoin strategy, micro strategy, MSTR has not only outperformed Bitcoin itself, but every stock in the S&P 500. That kind of return doesn't happen by accident. It's the result of strategic focus, intelligent leverage, and our disciplined execution. We're also one of the most heavily traded and closely watched equities in the market today, both in spot and in options markets.

    我們的績效指標反映了我們在市場中的獨特地位和實力。自從推出我們的比特幣策略、微策略以來,MSTR 的表現不僅優於比特幣本身,而且優於標準普爾 500 指數中的每一隻股票。這種回報並非偶然發生。這是策略重點、智慧槓桿和嚴格執行的結果。我們也是當今市場上交易最活躍、最受關注的股票之一,無論是在現貨市場或選擇權市場。

  • MSTR consistently ranks among the top across open interest, daily trading volume is a percentage of market cap. This level of engagement reflects more than just price action. It's a sign of growing institutional interest, retail participation, and the market's recognition of strategy as the capital market center of gravity for Bitcoin.

    MSTR 在未平倉合約中一直名列前茅,每日交易量佔市值的百分比。這種參與程度反映的不僅是價格行為。這顯示機構興趣、散戶參與度不斷增長,以及市場對比特幣策略作為資本市場重心的認可。

  • Now, I'll turn to our capital plan. In October of last year, we introduced the 2121 plan, a bold but disciplined framework to raise $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in fixed income capital. We designed it to be agile, scalable, and responsive to market dynamics. Since then, we've reported having raised $20.9 billion in equity and $6.4 billion in fixed income capital, meaning we're 65% complete.

    現在,我將談談我們的資本計劃。去年 10 月,我們推出了 2121 計劃,這是一個大膽但嚴謹的框架,旨在籌集 210 億美元的股權資本和 210 億美元的固定收益資本。我們將其設計為敏捷、可擴展且能夠響應市場動態。自那時起,我們報告稱已籌集了 209 億美元的股權資本和 64 億美元的固定收益資本,這意味著我們已完成 65%。

  • Notably, 99% of the equity portion has been completed in a mere 6 months. We believe the accelerated progress is a testament to the strength of our market access and the credibility we've built with all groups of investors who've demonstrated increasing demand for our securities.

    值得注意的是,僅用6個月就完成了99%的股權部分。我們相信,加速進展證明了我們的市場准入實力以及我們在所有投資者群體中建立的信譽,這些投資者對我們的證券的需求日益增加。

  • So what's next? Remember our original inspiration from The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything. The number was 42 for a $42 billion dollar capital plan. And given our success, we're now going to double down with the new plan, the 4242 capital plan. That's $42 billion in equity and $42 billion in fixed income targeted through the end of 2027 and inclusive of our original $2121 billion dollar capital plan.

    那麼下一步是什麼?記住我們最初的靈感來自《銀河系漫遊指南》,這是關於生命、宇宙和一切的終極問題的答案。這項資本計畫的規模為 420 億美元,其中涉及 42 個。鑑於我們所取得的成功,我們現在將加倍努力實施新計劃,即 4242 資本計劃。截至 2027 年底,我們的股權投資目標為 420 億美元,固定收益投資目標為 420 億美元,其中包括我們最初的 2,1,210 億美元資本計畫。

  • This gives us the scale to pursue our strategy with conviction and the flexibility to continue to adapt across market cycles. So to that end, we're pleased to announce that today we've filed for a new $21 billion ATM program.

    這使我們有足夠的規模堅定地推行我們的策略,並有足夠的靈活性繼續適應市場週期。為此,我們很高興地宣布,今天我們已經申請了一項新的 210 億美元 ATM 計劃。

  • Later in the presentation, Michael will share with you a framework for how we think about our securities and credit risk as it pertains to our Bitcoin strategy, including illustrative examples of how this framework would apply to the different types of securities we've offered. MSTR or convertible bonds, strike and strife. We're excited about this opportunity to discuss the framework, which we believe is helpful for understanding our capital financing decisions.

    在演講的後面,麥可將與大家分享一個框架,說明我們如何看待與我們的比特幣策略相關的證券和信用風險,包括該框架如何應用於我們提供的不同類型證券的說明性範例。MSTR 或可轉換債券、罷工和衝突。我們很高興有機會討論該框架,我們相信這有助於理解我們的資本融資決策。

  • Under the new 4242 plan, we're 32% complete. That leaves us with around $57 billion of additional capital to be raised through the end of 2027. As we move forward, we'll focus more on the fixed income side of our plan for instruments like strike, strife, convertible notes, and potentially new structures we may explore over time.

    根據新的 4242 計劃,我們已經完成了 32%。這意味著到 2027 年底我們將有大約 570 億美元的額外資本需要籌集。隨著我們繼續前進,我們將更專注於計劃中的固定收益方面,包括罷工、衝突、可轉換票據等工具,以及我們可能隨著時間的推移探索的潛在新結構。

  • At the same time, we'll continue to utilize the equity ATM when conditions are favorable, and when it represents an accretive and efficient option for our shareholders. The market has shown strong demand for instruments, and we tend to continue tapping new pools of capital in a thoughtful, value accretive manner, while maintaining a discipline leverage ratio between 20% and 30%, allowing us to responsibly scale while maximizing long-term value.

    同時,當條件有利且股權 ATM 對我們的股東來說是一種增值且高效的選擇時,我們將繼續利用股權 ATM。市場對工具表現出強勁的需求,我們傾向於繼續以深思熟慮、增值的方式挖掘新的資本池,同時保持 20% 至 30% 之間的紀律槓桿率,使我們能夠負責任地擴大規模,同時最大化長期價值。

  • We intend to remain highly efficient with our use of our overall capital. We have $185 million of total fixed annual obligations for interest and dividends, which we can cover using a fraction of our daily trading volume as new stock issuances. To put in perspective, our ATM activity this year alone has raised $6.6 billion. And our obligations represent just 3% of the daily traded volume of our equity, and less than 1% of the total equity we've raised in the last 12 months.

    我們打算繼續有效率地利用我們的整體資本。我們每年的利息和股息固定支出總額為 1.85 億美元,我們可以透過發行新股來彌補每日交易量的一小部分。換個角度來看,光是今年我們的 ATM 活動就籌集了 66 億美元。我們的債務僅占我們股票每日交易量的 3%,占我們過去 12 個月籌集的總股本的不到 1%。

  • As a result, we're comfortable raising additional fixed income capital to buy more Bitcoin without being restricted by available cash or cash flow from our software operations to service all of our interests and dividend obligations.

    因此,我們可以輕鬆地籌集額外的固定收益資本來購買更多的比特幣,而不受可用現金或軟體營運現金流的限制,以支付我們所有的利息和股息義務。

  • Mike will explain later why the strategy is highly accretive to our shareholders. We're tracking well ahead of our KPI targets for 2025. Year-to-date, we've achieved a 13.7% BTC yield, putting us well on pace to reach our full year target of 15%.

    麥克稍後會解釋為什麼該策略對我們的股東具有很高的增值效果。我們正在順利實現 2025 年的 KPI 目標。今年迄今為止,我們已實現 13.7% 的 BTC 收益率,這讓我們有望實現 15% 的全年目標。

  • BTC yield reflects the Bitcoin gain we generated through our Treasury operations. Our BTC gain is approximately 61,500 BTC years today. Representing a BTC dollar gain of $5.8 billion in the current at the current Bitcoin price.

    BTC 收益率反映了我們透過財務營運產生的比特幣收益。今天我們的 BTC 收益約為 61,500 BTC 年。按照當前的比特幣價格計算,這意味著 BTC 美元收益為 58 億美元。

  • Given our strong year to day performance in the favorable market environment, we're raising our KPI targets for 2025. We've raised our BTC yield target from 15% to 25%, reflecting confidence in our ability to create value for our shareholders.

    鑑於我們在有利的市場環境下今年的業績表現強勁,我們提高了 2025 年的 KPI 目標。我們已將 BTC 收益率目標從 15% 提高到 25%,這反映了我們對為股東創造價值的能力的信心。

  • And at the same time, we're increasing our BTC dollar gain target from $10 billion to $15 billion. These new targets better reflect the scale of our strategy and the value we believe we can unlock through discipline Bitcoin acquisitions. We remain disciplined in the use of both the ATM and other capital raising sources, doing so in a way to achieve our BTC yield and BTC dollar gain targets.

    同時,我們將 BTC 美元收益目標從 100 億美元提高到 150 億美元。這些新目標更好地反映了我們的策略規模以及我們相信可以透過嚴格的比特幣收購釋放的價值。我們在使用 ATM 和其他融資來源時保持紀律,以實現我們的 BTC 收益和 BTC 美元收益目標。

  • I'm now I'm going to turn the call over to Andrew, who will discuss our financials for the quarter in further detail.

    現在我將把電話轉給安德魯,他將進一步詳細討論我們本季的財務狀況。

  • Andrew Kang - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Andrew Kang - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Phong. I will begin with a quick review of the software results, and then go into more detail on our Bitcoin results.

    謝謝你,Phong。我將首先快速回顧軟體結果,然後詳細介紹我們的比特幣結果。

  • In Q1, total software revenues were approximately $111 million down 3.6% year over year. The lower product license revenues along with support revenues in Q1 continues to be as expected, and our overall revenue trend continues to reflect the ongoing transition of our software business from on-prem to the cloud.

    第一季度,軟體總營收約為 1.11 億美元,年減 3.6%。第一季產品授權收入和支援收入的下降仍然符合預期,我們的整體收入趨勢繼續反映出我們的軟體業務從本地到雲端的持續轉變。

  • Our cloud results in Q1, subscription services revenues increased 62% year over year and now make up approximately 33% of total revenues, continuing our quarter over quarter double digit growth. Our subscription billings also grew again by 38% in Q1 to $24.5 million.

    我們第一季的雲端運算業績顯示,訂閱服務營收年增 62%,目前約佔總營收的 33%,持續維持季兩位數的成長。我們的訂閱費用在第一季也再次成長了 38%,達到 2,450 萬美元。

  • The decline in product license revenues and support revenues continue to be offset by growth in cloud, and we continue to see growth in demand from our cloud platform and anticipate this trend to continue and strengthen in the coming quarters.

    產品授權收入和支援收入的下降繼續被雲端運算的成長所抵消,我們繼續看到雲端平台的需求成長,並預計這一趨勢將在未來幾個季度繼續並加強。

  • Lastly, cost of revenues were $34 million up 13% compared to Q1 of last year. The increase was driven primarily by higher cloud hosting costs, which we expect to continue in future periods as a direct result of our growth in cloud.

    最後,收入成本為 3,400 萬美元,與去年第一季相比成長了 13%。這一成長主要是由於雲端託管成本上升所致,我們預計未來這一成長將持續,這直接導致了我們雲端運算業務的成長。

  • Moving on to Bitcoin, we adopted fair value accounting for our Bitcoin Holdings on January 1 this year, which has fundamentally changed how we value our Bitcoin Treasury assets.

    談到比特幣,我們在今年 1 月 1 日採用了公允價值會計來核算我們的比特幣持有量,這從根本上改變了我們對比特幣國庫資產的估值方式。

  • The left of this slide, we began the year with our Bitcoin Holdings valued just under $42 billion. On January 1, on adoption of the new rule, we recognized $17.9 billion to our beginning balance of retained earnings, which was the difference between the carrying value on our books and the fair value based on Bitcoin price as of $1231.

    在這張投影片的左側,我們今年年初的比特幣持股價值略低於 420 億美元。1 月 1 日,新規則實施後,我們確認了 179 億美元的期初留存收益餘額,這是我們帳面價值與基於比特幣價格 1231 美元的公允價值之間的差額。

  • One fundamental difference now under fair value accounting is that our holdings are marked on the last day of every quarter, not throughout the quarter as before. Any new bitcoin purchased during the quarter are initially held at the purchase price of those bitcoins, and all prior quarter and new quarter purchases are fair value as of the last day of each quarter.

    現在公允價值會計的一個根本區別是,我們的持股是在每個季度的最後一天進行標記,而不是像以前一樣在整個季度進行標記。本季度購買的任何新比特幣最初都以該比特幣的購買價格持有,並且所有前一季和新季度的購買都是截至每個季度最後一天的公允價值。

  • In Q1, the price of Bitcoin declined from approximately $93,400 at the end of the year. To roughly $82,400 at the end of Q1, resulting in a $4.9 billion dollar unrealized fair value loss on our pre-Q1 holdings. We also purchased throughout the course of Q1 an additional 80,715 Bitcoin at an average price of approximately $94,900 representing $7.7 billion of new purchases.

    第一季度,比特幣價格從年底的約 93,400 美元下跌。至第一季末約為 82,400 美元,導致我們第一季前持有的未實現公允價值損失為 49 億美元。我們還在第一季額外購買了 80,715 個比特幣,平均價格約為 94,900 美元,相當於 77 億美元的新購買量。

  • So, why On the last day of Q1, because the market price of Bitcoin was approximately $82,400 these new purchases also reflected a fair value decline of about $1 billion. As a result, our overall Q1 unrealized fair market value loss was $5.9 billion which flowed directly through our income statement.

    那麼,為什麼在第一季的最後一天,由於比特幣的市場價格約為 82,400 美元,這些新購買也反映了約 10 億美元的公允價值下降。因此,我們第一季未實現的公平市價損失總額為 59 億美元,直接計入我們的損益表。

  • The next slide is an illustration on how fair value could impact the current quarter.

    下一張投影片說明了公允價值如何影響本季。

  • This waterfall chart begins with our March 31 Bitcoin Holdings on the left, valued at $43.5 billion. Since 331, we have seen a substantial recovery in Bitcoin price, which has increased since the end of Q1. Using a Bitcoin price of $95,000 as an example, the change in Bitcoin price would reflect an illustrative $6.6 billion dollar unrealized fair value gain on a Bitcoin held at the end of the previous quarter.

    該瀑布圖從左側的 3 月 31 日比特幣持有量開始,價值 435 億美元。自331以來,我們看到比特幣價格大幅回升,自第一季末以來一直在上漲。以比特幣價格 95,000 美元為例,比特幣價格的變化將反映上一季末持有的比特幣 66 億美元的未實現公允價值收益。

  • In Q2 so far, we have purchased an additional 25,370 Bitcoin at an average price of $89,303 which represents a $2.3 billion dollar investment. At the example price, the new Q2 purchases would reflect an increase of roughly $100 million in fair market value. In this illustration, our unrealized fair market value gain would be approximately $6.7 billion and the market value of our total Bitcoin held today would reflect the fair value of approximately $52.6 billion.

    到目前為止,第二季我們又買了 25,370 個比特幣,平均價格為 89,303 美元,相當於 23 億美元的投資。以範例價格計算,第二季的新採購將反映公平市場價值增加約 1 億美元。在這個例子中,我們未實現的公平市價收益約為 67 億美元,而我們今天持有的比特幣總量的市場價值將反映約 526 億美元的公允價值。

  • As Phong mentioned, Q1 was a milestone quarter for us with the IPOs of two new innovative preferred equity offerings. Strike, our 8% convertible preferred, is trading with an effective yield of roughly 9%. Since launch, Strike has delivered an 8.4% price return, outperforming the median return of all press offered since 2015.

    正如 Phong 所提到的,第一季對我們來說是一個里程碑,我們進行了兩筆新的創新優先股的 IPO。我們的 8% 可轉換優先股 Strike 的實際收益率約為 9%。自推出以來,Strike 的價格回報率已達 8.4%,超過了 2015 年以來所有媒體的平均回報率。

  • Strike is trading with an average daily volume of roughly $33 million which is nearly 80 times the typical trading volumes, demonstrating strong institutional demand and a deepening market for this product, which is strengthened through a $21 billion ATM, institutional block trades, and follow on retail demand.

    Strike 的每日平均交易量約為 3,300 萬美元,幾乎是典型交易量的 80 倍,顯示機構需求強勁且市場不斷深化,而 210 億美元的 ATM、機構大宗交易和後續零售需求進一步增強了這一市場。

  • Strife, are 10% fixed coupon perpetual preferred, has shown even stronger liquidity and investor demand and has quickly emerged as a top tier preferred instrument. With a price return of 7.5% since issuance, it has meaningfully outpaced the broader preferred market as well. Average daily volume for Strife has been $26 million again significantly higher than the peer set.

    Strife 是 10% 固定票面利率的永久優先債券,其流動性和投資者需求更為強勁,並迅速成為頂級優先債券工具。自發行以來,其價格回報率為 7.5%,也顯著超過了更廣泛的優先市場。Strife 的每日平均交易量再次達到 2,600 萬美元,遠高於同業。

  • When you compare the strong BTC risk and BTC credit profiles of these reps, there is tremendous unlock through the eventual recognition of the underlying BTC support of these instruments and the potential changes in the rate environment in the future.

    當你比較這些代表的強大 BTC 風險和 BTC 信用狀況時,透過最終識別這些工具的底層 BTC 支援以及未來利率環境的潛在變化,可以獲得巨大的釋放。

  • Both strike and strike stand out as one of the most liquid and high-performing preferred stocks issued in the last decade. They serve to provide innovative securities to institutional investors, insurance companies, Bitcoin longs, retail investors, as well as the broader fixed income universe.

    strike 和 strike 都是過去十年發行的流動性最強、表現最好的優先股之一。它們為機構投資者、保險公司、比特幣多頭、散戶投資者以及更廣泛的固定收益領域提供創新證券。

  • This slide highlights why we believe strike and strike are structurally superior to traditional debt.

    這張投影片強調了我們為什麼認為罷工和罷工在結構上優於傳統債務。

  • These instruments provide us with permanent capital with no maturity, no refinancing risk, no restrictive covenants, and no collateral requirements. They're also publicly listed, giving us flexibility to tap follow-on capital as needed, both institutionally and for retail investors.

    這些工具為我們提供了無期限、無再融資風險、無限制性契約、無抵押要求的永久資本。它們也是公開上市的,這使我們能夠根據需要靈活地為機構投資者和散戶投資者吸引後續資本。

  • In contrast, traditional bonds comes with fixed maturities, repayment, or refinancing risk, and often require covenants and collateral. Over a thirty-year period that can lead to significant leakage from refinancing costs and added operational complexity. Our preferred equity allows us to maintain leverage without repayment risk while providing durability and scalability. Bitcoin is a 100 plus year asset. These instruments provide 100 plus year exposure.

    相較之下,傳統債券具有固定的到期日、償還或再融資風險,並且通常需要契約和抵押品。在三十年的時間裡,這可能會導致再融資成本的嚴重流失並增加營運複雜性。我們的優先股使我們能夠保持槓桿率而無償還風險,同時提供持久性和可擴展性。比特幣是一項擁有 100 多年歷史的資產。這些儀器可提供超過 100 年的曝光時間。

  • In Q1, we issued a new $2.0 billion dollar convertible note which was well received by the market. The notes due March 2030 have a 0% coupon and price with a 35% conversion premium reflecting a conversion price of $433 per share. We also redeemed our 2027 convertible notes in Q1, and our nearest debt maturity is now not until late 2028. The remainder of our scheduled debt maturities are evenly spread out through 2032 with a weighted average scheduled debt maturity of approximately 4.9 years.

    第一季度,我們發行了新的 20 億美元可轉換債券,受到市場熱烈歡迎。2030 年 3 月到期的票據的票面利率和價格為 0%,轉換溢價為 35%,轉換價格為每股 433 美元。我們也在第一季贖回了 2027 年可轉換票據,而我們最近的債務到期日要到 2028 年底。我們剩餘的預定債務到期日平均分佈在 2032 年,加權平均預定債務到期日約為 4.9 年。

  • We now have $8.2 billion of total unsecured convertible debt outstanding with a low blended interest rate of approximately 0.42%. Since issuance, nearly all of our converts have increased in value significantly. On a blended basis, convertible bonds are up 62%, even outperforming Bitcoin itself.

    我們目前未償還的無擔保可轉換債務總額為 82 億美元,混合利率較低,約 0.42%。自發行以來,幾乎所有兌換物的價值都大幅增加。綜合來看,可轉換債券上漲了 62%,甚至超過了比特幣本身。

  • What is even more striking in strategies converts in comparison to other traditional securities such as US high yield and investment corporates and other US convertible bonds. The traditional convert market has historically offered investors such as hedge fund hedge funds access to volatility across different industries and asset classes. The innovation we introduced through our converts still provide volatility, but our converts offer increased volatility through Bitcoin exposure.

    與美國高收益投資公司和其他美國可轉換債券等其他傳統證券相比,策略轉換更加引人注目。傳統的轉換市場歷來為對沖基金等投資者提供了跨不同行業和資產類別波動的管道。我們透過轉換器引入的創新仍然提供了波動性,但我們的轉換器透過比特幣曝光提供了更大的波動性。

  • The differentiation of our converts from others is the credit coverage that we offer, which Michael will discuss in more detail shortly. Strategy was the largest issue of convert issuer of converts in 2024, and our success can be attributed to expanding the investor base of this historically closed market.

    我們的皈依者與其他皈依者的區別在於我們提供的信貸覆蓋範圍,邁克爾稍後將對此進行更詳細的討論。該策略是 2024 年最大的可轉換債券發行人,我們的成功可以歸功於擴大這個歷史上封閉的市場的投資者基礎。

  • In addition to traditional hedge funds, we have seen increasing participation from long only investors, and now with access for retail investors through vehicles like the BMAX ETF, the Bitcoin corporate treasury convertible bond ETF.

    除了傳統的對沖基金外,我們還看到多頭投資者的參與度不斷提高,現在散戶投資者也可以透過 BMAX ETF、比特幣公司國債可轉換債券 ETF 等工具參與其中。

  • Our outstanding debt and preferred securities, including converts, strike, and strife, are significantly supported by the value of our Bitcoin reserves and even more so by the scale of our common equity market value.

    我們的未償還債務和優先證券(包括可轉換債券、罷工債券和衝突債券)在很大程度上受到我們比特幣儲備價值的支持,甚至更多地受到我們普通股市場價值規模的支持。

  • As of April 28, we have $109 billion in equity market cap. And so we have about $100 billion in equity cushion and over $43 billion in Bitcoin cushion over our fixed income liabilities. The point is that we believe our capital structure is extremely well fortified.

    截至 4 月 28 日,我們的股票市值為 1,090 億美元。因此,我們的固定收益負債擁有約 1,000 億美元的股票緩衝和超過 430 億美元的比特幣緩衝。關鍵是我們相信我們的資本結構非常穩固。

  • This chart gives you a simple way to think about our capital stack across both seniority and volatility. To the far right, you'll see MSTR equity. That's your full exposure to our high performance Bitcoin strategy.

    這張圖表為您提供了一種簡單的方法來思考我們的資本結構,包括資歷和波動性。在最右邊,您會看到 MSTR 股權。這就是您對我們的高效能比特幣策略的全面了解。

  • Then there's Strike, our convertible preferred. That's a step up in seniority and it pays an 8% dividend, but it also gives investors some upside through equity conversion to MSGR. Above that is stripe, our 10% perpetual preferred. It's non-convertible, non-callable, and really meant for the kind of capital that wants long dated fixed income exposure to our balance sheet without the volatility of the equity. And at the top we've got our convertible notes, senior instruments with capped upside but higher protection in the capital structure.

    接下來是 Strike,我們首選的敞篷車。這是資歷的提升,它支付 8% 的股息,但它也透過股權轉換為 MSGR 為投資者帶來一些好處。上面是條紋,我們的 10% 永久優先股。它不可轉換、不可贖回,真正適用於那些希望在資產負債表中長期持有固定收益、但又不受股票波動影響的資本。在最頂層,我們有可轉換票據,這是一種具有上限但資本結構中保護程度更高的高級工具。

  • So what you're seeing here is a full spectrum of choices whether someone wants equity upside, yield with optionality, or pure senior exposure. That's what makes our overall capital structure so scalable. We are building a platform where investors can pick their spot on the risk return curve, and we can raise capital intelligently from each part of that curve.

    因此,您在這裡看到的是一系列的選擇,無論人們是想要股票上漲、選擇性的收益,還是純粹的優先風險敞口。這就是我們的整體資本結構如此具有可擴展性的原因。我們正在建立一個平台,投資者可以在風險回報曲線上選擇自己的位置,我們可以從曲線的每個部分智慧地籌集資金。

  • Thank you for your time today and for your continued support of strategy. I'll now turn the call over to Michael for his remarks.

    感謝您今天抽出時間並繼續支持我們的策略。現在我將把電話轉給邁克爾,請他發言。

  • Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board

    Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board

  • Okay, I want to thank everybody for being with us today, and I'm going to start with an observation. Strategy is the world's most widely held Bitcoin security, and you could think of it as the most widely held Bitcoin proxy. In fact, substantially more widely held than any of the spot ETFs in the world.

    好的,我想感謝大家今天的到來,我將從一個觀察開始。Strategy 是世界上持有最廣泛的比特幣證券,您可以將其視為持有最廣泛的比特幣代理。事實上,其持有範圍比世界上任何現貨 ETF 都更加廣泛。

  • We did some review of that in the past few months, and we found that there are 13,000 institutions that have accounts holding MSTR. And these institutions are not just asset managers, a lot of pension funds, insurance companies, and even sovereign wealth funds. We traced 814,000 retail accounts. And we have 500 plus ETFs and funds and indices that we're embedded in like the NASDAQ 100, the Russell 1,000, the MSCI index.

    過去幾個月我們對此進行了一些審查,發現有 13,000 家機構擁有持有 MSTR 的帳戶。而這些機構不只是資產管理公司,還有很多退休基金、保險公司,甚至還有主權財富基金。我們追蹤了 814,000 個零售帳戶。我們擁有 500 多個 ETF、基金和指數,例如納斯達克 100 指數、羅素 1000 指數和 MSCI 指數。

  • Some of these are extraordinary. For example, the Norway sovereign Wealth Fund, it's benefiting every single citizen of Norway. We've traced our holdings to insurance companies that have millions of beneficiaries. And pension funds that have many millions of beneficiaries. So all told, our best estimate is $55 million beneficiaries who are either indirect holders of MSTR or they're beneficiaries of the institutions that are invested in MSTR.

    其中一些是非同尋常的。例如挪威主權財富基金,它使挪威的每位公民受益。我們已經追蹤到我們的持股屬於擁有數百萬受益人的保險公司。以及擁有數百萬受益人的退休基金。總而言之,我們最好的估計是受益者為 5500 萬美元,他們要么是 MSTR 的間接持有者,要么是投資於 MSTR 的機構的受益者。

  • We can go to the next slide.

    我們可以轉到下一張投影片。

  • I'd like to talk a bit about our BTC models, and you're probably familiar with BTC yield and BTC gain because we've talked about those a lot over the past 6 months. But in fact, I get lots of questions about how the company is going to continue to outperform Bitcoin, how are we going to continue to grow the stock, what is the basis for the premium to NAV?

    我想談談我們的 BTC 模型,您可能熟悉 BTC 收益率和 BTC 收益,因為我們在過去 6 個月中已經討論過這些內容。但事實上,我收到了很多問題,例如公司將如何繼續跑贏比特幣,我們將如何繼續增加股票,資產淨值溢價的基礎是什麼?

  • And, in and of themselves, yield and gain only tell you part of the story. If you want to understand how we create shareholder value, we have to look out, much more than just the common, the current period. We're looking at a decade and we're considering the consequences of all of our capital markets transactions. And so, we internally use a variety of these BTC metrics, and I'm sharing them with you today. And I'm going to explain how we use them, how we think about them.

    而且,就其本身而言,收益和收益只能告訴你故事的一部分。如果你想了解我們如何創造股東價值,我們必須關注的不僅僅是常見的當前時期。我們正在展望未來十年,並考慮所有資本市場交易的後果。因此,我們內部使用各種 BTC 指標,今天我與大家分享這些指標。我將解釋我們如何使用它們,如何思考它們。

  • Some of them are valuation metrics, some of them are credit metrics. We've got some that are forecast metrics if we go to the next slide, like volatility and ARR, and then we have treasury metrics where we're calculating the value of our treasury and we have metrics that allow us to assess how accretive. Any particular trade or any particular transaction is at any point in time. We even have some risk metrics. We have not just credit risk metrics for the credit instruments, but we have BTC risk metrics where we assess. the hurdle rates and the breakeven points of our various capital markets transactions.

    其中一些是估值指標,一些是信用指標。如果我們進入下一張投影片,我們會看到一些預測指標,例如波動性和 ARR,然後我們有財務指標,用於計算財務的價值,我們有一些指標可以讓我們評估增值程度。任何特定的貿易或任何特定的交易都是在任何時間點發生的。我們甚至有一些風險指標。我們不僅有針對信用工具的信用風險指標,還有我們評估的 BTC 風險指標。我們各種資本市場交易的最低收益率和損益平衡點。

  • So let's dive right in.

    那麼就讓我們開始吧。

  • First of all, the degree to which any capital markets transaction is a creative and going to create shareholder value as a function of some outlook or expectations. One thing that's really important is, what do you think about BTC? Do you think that Bitcoin is going to go up 0% a year forever? And if you do, we call that a skeptic. Do you think that, Bitcoin is going to track the S&P index about 10% a year or so on average? We call that a traitor.

    首先,任何資本市場交易的創造性程度以及創造股東價值的程度都取決於某種觀點或期望。真正重要的一點是,您對 BTC 有何看法?您認為比特幣每年的漲幅將永遠是 0% 嗎?如果你這麼做了,我們就稱之為懷疑論者。您認為比特幣每年平均會跟隨標準普爾指數上漲 10% 左右嗎?我們稱之為叛徒。

  • Do you think that Bitcoin looks like a magnificent 7 stock or a digital, a dominant digital monetary network, a Google, a Microsoft, and Amazon? Those normally have growth rates of 20%. We call that an investor, a tech investor. If you will. And then, do you believe that Bitcoin is destined to demonetize lots of other assets as digital capital? That makes you a maximalist. My long-term forecast personally that I shared last July in Nashville was that I thought Bitcoin was going to go up 29% ARR on average for the next 21 years.

    您認為比特幣看起來像是一支宏偉的 7 支股票,還是一支數位、一個主導的數位貨幣網路、一個谷歌、一個微軟和亞馬遜?這些的成長率通常為20%。我們稱之為投資者,技術投資者。如果你願意的話。那麼,您是否認為比特幣注定會取代許多其他資產成為數位資本?這讓你成為一個極端主義者。我個人的長期預測是,去年 7 月我在納許維爾分享了比特幣在未來 21 年內平均 ARR 將上漲 29%。

  • So you can see my forecast over the next 21 years. It's about a maximalist forecast on average for a long period. If you are more aggressive than that, and in the near term, especially over the next five years, or 10 years, you might have a shorter time horizon or you might just think that the base case is conservative and you might have a more bullish case. You might be a double maxi and think a 40% gain is coming, or even a triple maxi and think of 50% a year ARR as possible.

    所以你可以看到我對未來 21 年的預測。這是關於長期平均的最大預測。如果你比這更積極,並且在短期內,特別是未來五年或十年,你可能會有一個更短的時間範圍,或者你可能只是認為基本情況是保守的,你可能會有一個更樂觀的情況。您可能是雙重最大投資者,認為將獲得 40% 的收益,甚至是三重最大投資者,認為每年 50% 的 ARR 是可能的。

  • So just keep those numbers in mind as we do this analysis, because the important takeaway is Your view of the equity and the credit instruments as an investor will be a function of your view of BTC. So first point to be made. Why do people want to hold MSTR? What drives the premium to NAV? What creates the magnetic appeal or the gravitational attraction of this asset? Well, one thing is the volatility, and we have a volatility which is higher than BTC. It is also higher than any of the S&P 500.

    因此,當我們進行分析時,請記住這些數字,因為重要的一點是,作為投資者,您對股票和信用工具的看法將取決於您對 BTC 的看法。首先要說明的是。人們為什麼想要持有 MSTR?是什麼推動了資產淨值溢價?是什麼創造了這種資產的磁力吸引力或引力?嗯,一件事是波動性,我們的波動性高於 BTC。它也高於標準普爾 500 指數中的任何一個。

  • When you have that kind of volatility, you can generate yield by simply selling that volatility. We've quantified that value of that volatility in a metric we call the MSTR rate. Think of it as the simple annualized yield you can generate by selling at the market call options with a 30-day to expiry. If you just keep rolling those call options and keep selling them all the time.

    當你有這種波動性時,你只需出售該波動性即可獲得收益。我們以稱為 MSTR 率的指標量化了該波動率的值。可以將其視為以市場價格出售到期日為 30 天的看漲期權可以獲得的簡單年化收益率。如果您只是不斷滾動這些看漲期權並不斷出售它們。

  • You generate 103% simple annualized yield on MSTR. That's substantially higher than Nvidia or II and its substantially higher than the NASDAQ 100. You can look at it as, again, it's like the magnetic attraction to capital. People might very well buy MSTR to sell that ball, not even knowing what BTC is, not even knowing what MSTR is. All they know is they want that 103%. Now, another point that I'll make is, if you're in a taxable account, you're getting a 103% yield that's taxable, and so your after-tax is going to be 70%, 60%, whatever that is.

    您在 MSTR 上獲得了 103% 的簡單年化收益率。這遠高於 Nvidia 或 II,也遠高於納斯達克 100 指數。你可以把它看作是對資本的磁力吸引力。人們很可能會購買 MSTR 來賣掉那個球,甚至不知道 BTC 是什麼,甚至不知道 MSTR 是什麼。他們只知道他們想要那 103%。現在,我要說的另一點是,如果您有一個應稅帳戶,您將獲得 103% 的應稅收益,因此您的稅後收益將是 70%、60% 或無論多少。

  • But if you're in a tax-free account or a tax advantaged account, it could be a retirement account, or if you're an offshore ball trader, if you're sitting in Dubai or you're sitting in a zero income tax environment, and you reinvest this rate, you can get to 200% or more annualized yield. So, of course, that makes our security, MSTR globally interesting to traders and very interesting to people that would simply like to sell all and another point that I'd make is that when you're considering an equity to solve all on, what you'd like is volatility. You would also like liquidity, you would also like durability. You want 103 vol with $5 billion of equity trading every day, and you want it to continue for a decade and you need, you want credibility, so think volatility, liquidity, durability, credibility.

    但如果你有一個免稅帳戶或稅收優惠帳戶,它可能是一個退休帳戶,或者如果你是一個離岸交易員,如果你在杜拜或你處於零所得稅環境中,並且你以這個利率進行再投資,你可以獲得 200% 或更高的年化收益率。因此,當然,這使得我們的證券 MSTR 在全球範圍內對交易者俱有吸引力,並且對那些只想全部出售的人來說也非常有趣,我想說的另一點是,當您考慮用股票來解決所有問題時,您想要的是波動性。您也會喜歡流動性,您也會喜歡耐用性。您希望波動率達到 103,每天的股票交易達到 50 億美元,並且您希望這種波動率持續十年,而且您需要可信度,因此請考慮波動性、流動性、持久性和可信度。

  • And now think about three classes of companies. Weak struggling companies occasionally are volatile, but their underlying operating business is losing money, so they're not durable. So if you have a volatile business and you're losing cash, it's interesting to trade for a while, but the trade doesn't stick around. And yeah, on the other hand, strong companies, well-run companies, the Microsofts of the world.

    現在考慮一下三類公司。實力較弱、苦苦掙扎的公司偶爾會出現波動,但其基本營運業務正在虧損,因此它們不具備持久性。因此,如果你的業務不穩定並且正在虧損,那麼交易一段時間可能會很有趣,但不會持續下去。是的,另一方面,強大的公司、經營良好的公司,就像微軟一樣。

  • They actually have a management team that engages in very decisive actions to strip the volatility away from the balance sheet and strip the volatility away from the P&L. So, the primary philosophy and dynamic of a well-run company is to get rid of the volatility. And, if you have a meme company, a meme stock of sorts, or a random company, you might get massive volatility either for a good reason or a bad reason.

    他們實際上有一個管理團隊,採取非常果斷的行動來消除資產負債表中的波動性,消除損益表中的波動性。因此,經營良好的公司的首要理念和動力是擺脫波動性。而且,如果你有一家迷因公司、某種迷因股票或隨機公司,你可能會因為好的原因或壞的原因而經歷巨大的波動。

  • But the management team normally doesn't have credibility and durability. How are you going to keep it for a decade? And so you see what we have done. Is we have created a volatility engine. When you take volatility, when you take a fire and you cultivate it becomes, a furnace. And if you're smart, you make it a reactor, and it becomes a power plant.

    但管理團隊通常缺乏可信度和持久性。你要如何將它保存十年?所以你看到了我們所做的一切。我們已經創建了一個波動引擎。當你採取揮發性時,當你採取火併進行培養時,它就變成了熔爐。如果你夠聰明的話,你可以把它變成反應堆,然後它就變成發電廠了。

  • And, of course, what we're doing is creating a crypto reactor that could run for a long period of time. So that's, that rate combined with the credibility of the management team and the transparency and the durability, plus the liquidity that actually drives and attracts a lot of capital, to MSTR.

    當然,我們正在做的是創建一個可以長期運行的加密反應器。因此,該利率與管理團隊的信譽、透明度和持久性以及流動性相結合,實際上推動並吸引了大量資本進入 MSTR。

  • Next Now let's talk about equity analytics. On any given day, we consider how are we going to raise money and how do we generate yield? How do we generate gain? How do we generate shareholder value. So, if we were to sell $100 million of MSTR equity at a multiple to average of two, then generally what happens is we capture a BTC dollar gain of half of that. The spread is 50%, we capture $50 million of that is the gain. That is the accretive component, to the existing common stock shareholders. That converts to a BTC gain of 526 Bitcoin. That converts into a yield that is dividing our BTC gain by our entire stack of Bitcoin works out to 9 basis points.

    接下來我們來談談股票分析。在任何一天,我們都在考慮如何籌集資金以及如何產生收益?我們如何產生收益?我們如何創造股東價值。因此,如果我們以平均兩倍的價格出售價值 1 億美元的 MSTR 股權,那麼通常我們會獲得其中一半的 BTC 美元收益。利差為 50%,我們獲得其中 5,000 萬美元的收益。對於現有普通股股東來說,這是一個增值部分。這相當於獲得了 526 個比特幣的收益。這就轉化為收益率,即用我們的 BTC 收益除以我們的整個比特幣儲備,得出 9 個基點。

  • So we're capturing a yield by selling the equity, and buying the Bitcoin. When we do that with convertible notes, we do it at is at a 0 coupon up 40 in this model, and we're just using that to make the math simple. The same transaction with converts would result in a 12 basis point yield, a $64 million dollar BTC dollar gain, a 64% spread if you will, and we get not 526 Bitcoin, but 676.

    因此,我們透過出售股票和購買比特幣來獲取收益。當我們使用可轉換票據進行此操作時,我們在此模型中以 0 票息、上漲 40 的方式進行操作,我們只是使用它來簡化計算。同樣的可轉換交易將產生 12 個基點的收益率,6,400 萬美元的 BTC 美元收益,如果你願意的話,利差為 64%,我們得到的不是 526 個比特幣,而是 676 個。

  • If we do the same thing with Strike, given our general model for Strike, which is an 8% dividend and a 150% conversion premium, now you're saying we're getting to a 15 basis point yield, 842 Bitcoin, and $80 million gain, that's an 80% spread.

    如果我們對 Strike 做同樣的事情,考慮到 Strike 的一般模型,即 8% 的股息和 150% 的轉換溢價,現在你說我們獲得了 15 個基點的收益率、842 比特幣和 8000 萬美元的收益,那就是 80% 的利差。

  • So you see the leverage is getting greater that 842 Bitcoin is achieved without dilution to the common stock. So all of the capital, all of the investment income or the capital gain, if you will, from the 842 Bitcoin forever will accrue to the existing shareholders, the existing common shareholders, and not to the new strike shareholders. So that's how we're creating an upside opportunity.

    因此,您會看到槓桿越來越大,在不稀釋普通股的情況下實現了 842 比特幣。因此,如果你願意的話,842 比特幣的所有資本、所有投資收入或資本利得將永遠歸於現有股東、現有普通股股東,而不是新的罷工股東。這就是我們創造上行機會的方式。

  • Now when we go to strife is the simplest model because We're selling $100 million of a preferred, we're not diluting the common stock at all. So we've got a $100 million dollar gain of Bitcoin without any share dilution, works out to 1,0053 Bitcoin, and that's a 19 basis point yield.

    現在,當我們陷入困境時,這是最簡單的模型,因為我們正在出售 1 億美元的優先股,我們根本沒有稀釋普通股。因此,我們獲得了 1 億美元的比特幣收益,沒有任何股份稀釋,相當於 1,0053 比特幣,收益率為 19 個基點。

  • So there you go, you see, as we go to more debt-like instruments, we're generating less dilution, there are more creative, and they generate a higher BTC dollar gain. That, we call BTC KPIs, we report that upfront. We can immediately calculate these numbers and you're seeing them, generally week by week. Now let's go to the next part of the analysis.

    所以你看,當我們採用更多類似債務的工具時,我們產生的稀釋就會減少,創造力會增強,並且它們會產生更高的 BTC 美元收益。我們稱之為 BTC KPI,我們會提前報告。我們可以立即計算出這些數字,並且您可以每週都看到它們。現在我們進入下一部分的分析。

  • Think about the next 10 years, when we sell that $100 million of equity, we capture the $50 million dollar gain upfront. Okay, that's great. That is shareholder value created. But in fact, the question is what happens over the next 10 years? And we use 10 years as a long time frame. Most investors don't really have patience, long time or forever is about 10 years. So you'll see a lot of analysis here that's about 10 year analytics.

    想想未來 10 年,當我們出售 1 億美元的股權時,我們可以預先獲得 5,000 萬美元的收益。好的,太好了。這就是創造的股東價值。但事實上,問題是未來10年會發生什麼事?我們以 10 年為一個較長的時間框架。大多數投資者實際上沒有耐心,長期或永遠大約是 10 年。因此,您會在這裡看到很多有關 10 年的分析。

  • What you can see here is If you're a maximalist like me, and like many of our common stock shareholders are maximalist, and you crank in a 30% BTC ARR forecast, that $100 million of capital grows to be $1379 million, in year 10.

    您可以在這裡看到,如果您像我一樣是極端主義者,並且像我們的許多普通股股東一樣,都是極端主義者,並且您以 30% 的 BTC ARR 預測,那麼 1 億美元的資本將在第 10 年增長到 13.79 億美元。

  • So now, what has happened? Well, we've created $50 million in gain one time, but we've actually created a lot of investment income. And half of that investment income is attributable to the equity dilution, and so the new shareholders are benefiting from it, but the other half of the investment income is captured by the common stock shareholders that existed before the transaction. So that's what we call a BTC dollar income.

    那麼現在發生了什麼事?嗯,我們一次性創造了5000萬美元的收益,但實際上我們創造了很多投資收益。其中一半的投資收益歸因於股權稀釋,因此新股東從中受益,但另一半的投資收益則由交易前存在的普通股股東獲得。這就是我們所說的 BTC 美元收入。

  • BTC dollar income is the value that's created for the common stock shareholders of MSTR by having sold the $100 million of equity. And if you ask the question, well, how much value is created for the shareholders over the course of the decade? Well, it works out to be the gain plus the dollar income, and so you end up with value of $689 million. So we call it BTC dollar value, $689 million.

    BTC美元收入是MSTR透過出售1億美元股權為普通股股東創造的價值。如果你問這個問題,那麼,十年間為股東創造了多少價值?嗯,結果是收益加上美元收入,所以最終的價值是 6.89 億美元。因此我們稱之為 BTC 美元價值,6.89 億美元。

  • Now, you can take the ratio of the value created to the capital raised, and that works out to what we call BTC torque. That's sort of a return on capital measure. What is our return on capital? 6.9 X. So, Why is that valuable? Well, if you want to outperform BTC, then you're going to need to find a way to get leverage. So that torque is leverage that allows the MSTR equity to outperform BTC over time.

    現在,你可以將創造的價值與籌集的資本之比計算出來,這就是我們所說的 BTC 扭力。這是一種資本報酬率衡量標準。我們的資本報酬率是多少?6.9 X. 那麼,為什麼它有價值?好吧,如果你想要超越 BTC,那麼你就需要找到一種獲得槓桿的方法。因此,扭矩是一種槓桿,它使得 MSTR 股權隨著時間的推移能夠超越 BTC。

  • If you want to drive up the price of the value of the stock, or if you want to drive up the MSTR stock, you have to create value. And you can see right here if we create $689 million of either gains or incremental investment income without dilution, that is the value creation. So we're creating a $6.9 of value. For every $1 of capital we raise, when we do this kind of transaction. Now, there's another metric you can calculate, which is BTC multiple. And BTC multiple in this case is equal to the total BTC Nav, like 1,379 million over the equity issued.

    如果你想提高股票價格,或者如果你想提高 MSTR 股票價格,你就必須創造價值。您可以看到,如果我們創造 6.89 億美元的收益或增量投資收入而不稀釋,這就是價值創造。因此我們創造了 6.9 美元的價值。當我們籌集每 1 美元的資金時,我們都會進行此類交易。現在,您可以計算另一個指標,即 BTC 倍數。在這種情況下,BTC 倍數等於 BTC Nav 總額,即發行股權的 13.79 億。

  • And you can see that the equity was $690 million or so. So, in this case, and this makes total common sense, right? We started with an MA of two. We sold $100 million of equity, half of it was a gain, the investment income and the attributable to that gained amount is one half and the investment income that's attributable to the equity dilution is the other half.

    您可以看到股權約為 6.9 億美元。那麼,在這種情況下,這是完全常識的,對吧?我們從兩個 MA 開始。我們出售了 1 億美元的股權,其中一半是收益,投資收益和歸因於該收益的金額是一半,歸因於股權稀釋的投資收益是另一半。

  • Now, I think that if you look at this BTC multiple, that will tend to set the floor for mNAV. It's not the ceiling, it's not necessarily the average there. There are about a dozen other factors that drive a premium to BTC and they drive the mNAV North. One of them in isolation, is our equity sales or our equity financing here. And so, yeah, focus upon the two BTC multiple and, think that if we do a lot of, capital markets activity around a two multiple, that will tend to drive the mNAV toward or above, or keep it above two.

    現在,我認為如果你看一下這個 BTC 倍數,它將傾向於為 mNAV 設定底線。這不是上限,也不一定是平均值。還有大約十幾個其他因素推動 BTC 溢價並推動 mNAV 上漲。其中之一就是我們的股權銷售或股權融資。因此,是的,專注於 2 BTC 倍數,並認為如果我們圍繞 2 倍數進行大量資本市場活動,這將傾向於推動 mNAV 接近或高於 2,或保持在 2 以上。

  • And the degree of impact it has, of course, is a function of how fast we raise capital and the amount of capital we raise relative to the existing Bitcoin NavV. Now, there are three possible objectives of our capital markets activity. The first and the principal objective is drive up the price of MSTR.

    當然,它的影響程度取決於我們籌集資金的速度以及相對於現有比特幣 NavV 籌集的資金量。現在,我們的資本市場活動可能有三個目標。第一個也是最主要的目標是提高MSTR的價格。

  • Second, outperform BTC. third, increase, the mNAV. And if you think about it, you said, well, which one do you want the most? Well, you want the price of MSTR to be maximized, but the other two are consistent with it. And how are we going to do these things? Well, it's a function of raising capital at a high spread such that we create shareholder value at the fastest possible rate. So, bear in mind this charts the baseline.

    第二,跑贏BTC。第三,增加 mNAV。如果你考慮一下,你會說,那麼,你最想要哪一個?好吧,你希望 MSTR 的價格最大化,但其他兩個的價格與之保持一致。我們該如何做這些事情呢?嗯,它的作用是以高利差籌集資金,以便我們以最快的速度創造股東價值。因此,請記住這是基線圖表。

  • Now let's go ahead and look at what happens if we substitute convertible bonds. Well, the converts have 40% leverage in them. And so what you can see here is that our torque goes up to 8.9%. So there's a lot more torque on this, almost $9 of value creation for every dollar a capital raise, or $9 a BTC dollar value for every dollar capital raise. And you see the BTC multiple moves to 2.8. So that's going to tend to drive up or support a much higher mNAV. It's also going to tend to create more BTC dollar income, for the common stock shareholders.

    現在讓我們繼續看看如果我們替換可轉換債券會發生什麼。那麼,皈依者擁有 40% 的影響力。所以您可以看到我們的扭力上升到了 8.9%。因此,這方面的扭力要大得多,每籌集一美元資金,就會創造近 9 美元的價值,或者每籌集一美元資金,就會創造 9 美元的 BTC 價值。你會看到 BTC 倍數移動到 2.8。因此,這將趨向於推高或支援更高的 mNAV。它也將為普通股股東創造更多的 BTC 美元收入。

  • Now let's go to what happens if we go to strike. At strike, you can see we have a higher premium, and so now the torque is even increasing, the return on capital looks even more impressive. Of course, a 150% premium ought to do that. And what you can see is the expected equity dilution, and this is the theoretical equity dilution is much lower. The BTC multiple goes to four. You could imagine that tons of financing of strike will tend to justify an mNAV of more than four, if we can if we can change this to be a substantial mix to our capital raising on an isolated basis.

    現在讓我們看看如果我們罷工會發生什麼。在執行時,你可以看到我們有更高的溢價,所以現在扭矩甚至在增加,資本回報率看起來更加令人印象深刻。當然,150% 的保費應該可以實現這一點。你所看到的是預期的股權稀釋,而理論上的股權稀釋要低得多。BTC 倍數上升至 4。你可以想像,如果我們可以將其改變為單獨籌集資金的實質組合,那麼大量的罷工融資往往會證明 mNAV 超過 4 是合理的。

  • Now there are Couple of other dynamics here. One point I make is this is really on an isolated basis, and it's a theoretical calculation because as a practical matter, the $340 million of equity you see, in year 10 is sitting in the strike instrument. And if strike is generating a dividend, it's quite likely that people that buy strike will never want to convert strike into equity. They have the right to do so, but they may not do it.

    現在這裡還有其他一些動態。我想說的一點是,這實際上是基於孤立基礎的,而且是一種理論計算,因為實際上,第 10 年的 3.4 億美元股權處於執行工具中。如果罷工產生了股息,那麼購買罷工的人很可能永遠不會想將罷工轉換為股權。他們有權這麼做,但他們可能不會這麼做。

  • So this is an example of, a theoretical equity dilution, but practically speaking, you're getting a lot of leverage from this instrument, because you're attracting a new class of investors and they don't want to actually convert this to pure equity if they're buying it in order to hold it for the liquidation preference and the dividend. But you can see, Torque is improving, multiple is improving, and we're generating $10 of BTC dollar value for every dollar capital that we raise.

    所以這是一個理論上的股權稀釋的例子,但實際上,你從這個工具中獲得了很多槓桿,因為你吸引了一類新的投資者,如果他們購買它是為了持有清算優先權和股息,他們並不想把它轉換成純股權。但你可以看到,扭力正在提高,倍數正在提高,我們籌集的每一美元資本都在產生 10 美元的 BTC 美元價值。

  • Now, let's talk about Strife. So the Torque for Strife increases to 12.8%. You see a lot of Torque because at the end of the 10 years, you've only issued $100 million of equity. That's equity that we assume we issued to pay the dividends. We've got $1.37 billion of NAV. What's interesting here is you see the BTC multiple goes to 13.8. So strife is incredibly leveraging to the common stock shareholders, and it generates potentially extremely high return on asset and extremely high return on equity.

    現在,我們來談談 Strife。因此 Strife 的扭力增加至 12.8%。您會看到大量的 Torque,因為在 10 年後,您只發行了 1 億美元的股權。這是我們假設發行來支付股利的股權。我們的資產淨值是 13.7 億美元。有趣的是,你會看到 BTC 倍數上升到 13.8。因此,衝突對於普通股股東來說具有極大的槓桿作用,並且它可能產生極高的資產回報率和極高的股本回報率。

  • Now, let's look at, broader cases here. Coming back to my chart. You can see that when we do these transactions, only a small part of the story is the BTC gain, right? $50 million worth of gain immediately, but we're looking at $639 million as the share of, BTC of investment income attributable, to the shareholders, without expected dilution. So the real BTC dollar value, $689 million of which less than 10% of it is the gain upfront. Most of the leverage you can see is really coming on the back end of the transaction. And you can see as we go to the right, you're getting to a substantially larger value creation, 800 million, 1 billion, 1.3 billion. That's all assuming a 10 year time horizon, 30% ARR, and 2 times NAV.

    現在,讓我們看看更廣泛的案例。回到我的圖表。您可以看到,當我們進行這些交易時,故事中只有一小部分是 BTC 收益,對嗎?立即獲得價值 5,000 萬美元的收益,但我們認為 6.39 億美元是歸屬於股東的 BTC 投資收益份額,不會出現預期的稀釋。因此,BTC 的實際美元價值為 6.89 億美元,其中不到 10% 是預付收益。您所看到的大部分槓桿實際上都出現在交易的後端。您可以看到,當我們向右移動時,您將獲得更大的價值創造,8 億、10 億、13 億。這一切都假設了 10 年的時間範圍、30% 的 ARR 和 2 倍的 NAV。

  • Now let's look at other cases. I'm going to show you BTC Torque for one times Nav. If we were to sell equity at one times mNAV, then you can see there there isn't any Torque, right? Yeah, if you're basically selling the equity at the mNAV. You're not really creating shareholder value on an isolated basis. That is the first order result of the capital market transaction is simply to expand the equity capital of the company.

    現在讓我們看看其他案例。我將向您展示 BTC Torque 的一次導航。如果我們以 mNAV 的 1 倍價格出售股票,那麼您會發現沒有任何扭矩,對嗎?是的,如果你基本上是以 mNAV 出售股票。你其實並不是孤立地創造股東價值。也就是說,資本市場交易的首要結果就是擴大公司的股本。

  • By the way, that's not necessarily a bad idea. You might be expanding the equity capital of the company, making the other credit instruments more creditworthy. You might increase liquidity, you might actually increase volatility because of name recognition and for a lot of other second order reasons, but On an isolated basis, you're not generating torque here. If you look at the convertible notes, You generate a little bit of torque. You can still generate some Torque, and if you're a maximalist, you expect 30% AR, you're going to generate a 3.9 Torque, $4 for every dollar capital.

    順便說一句,這不一定是個壞主意。您可能正在擴大公司的股本,使其他信貸工具更具信譽。您可能會增加流動性,實際上您可能會因為知名度和許多其他二階原因而增加波動性,但從孤立的角度來看,您不會在這裡產生扭矩。如果你看一下可轉換票據,你就會產生一點扭力。您仍然可以產生一些扭矩,如果您是一個極端主義者,您期望 30% 的 AR,那麼您將產生 3.9 扭矩,每美元資本產生 4 美元。

  • So you can generate shareholder value using convertible financing if you are very bullish on Bitcoin. When you go to strike, it becomes easier. For strike, you can see you're generating a lot of shareholder value here, even just as a trader with a more skeptical outlook, and the torque, increases, a bit faster.

    因此,如果您非常看好比特幣,您可以使用可轉換融資來創造股東價值。當你去打擊時,事情就變得更容易了。對於罷工,你可以看到你在這裡創造了很多股東價值,即使只是一個懷疑的交易員,扭矩也會增加得更快一些。

  • But of course, the real strategy if you've got a low mNAV, to get the engine going, is you're selling strife because Strife is generating extreme torque. Strife is generating 13 X, $13 for every dollar a capital raise, even with mNAV of one. And so you see the strife numbers go from 1.6% as a trader all the way up to 56 X if you're a triple maxi. So that's our one mNAV chart. Let's look at it for other multiples. Here's two mNAV's.

    但當然,如果你的 mNAV 較低,那麼讓引擎運轉起來的真正策略就是出售衝突,因為衝突會產生極大的扭力。即使 mNAV 為 1,Strife 也能產生 13 倍的收益,即每籌集 1 美元資本就能產生 13 美元的收益。因此,您會看到衝突數字從交易員的 1.6% 上升到三重最大值的 56 X。這就是我們的一張 mNAV 圖表。讓我們看看其他倍數。這是兩個 mNAV。

  • Now, what you see here is when you get to two times mNAV, you can generate pretty decent torque with the equity, $7 for every $1 capital raised. You can generate a lot more with the converts. You can generate a ton with strike, and then strife, what you'll notice is the torque is exactly the same. It is invariant to the mNAV, right? It's just a, it's a pure fixed income instrument.

    現在,您看到的是,當您達到 mNAV 的兩倍時,您可以用股權產生相當不錯的扭矩,每籌集 1 美元資本即可產生 7 美元。您可以透過轉換產生更多收益。你可以透過打擊產生一噸,然後衝突,你會注意到扭矩是完全相同的。它對於 mNAV 來說是不變的,對嗎?它只是一種純粹的固定收益工具。

  • Now let's go to 3 times mNAV. Now you see it 3 times mNAV and you're starting to generate a, $9 for every $1 capital raised, over the 10 years if you're a maximalist. And of course it that really improves the returns to convertible notes and strike dramatically. And you know what doesn't get any better? Strife, right? Strife, torque is exactly the same regardless of what the mNAV is. But you see that it, it's getting easy to generate torque with MSTR and convertible notes as the mNAV increases.

    現在讓我們轉到 3 倍 mNAV。現在你看到它是 mNAV 的 3 倍,如果你是一個極端主義者,那麼在 10 年內,你每籌集 1 美元資本就會開始產生 9 美元的收入。當然,這確實提高了可轉換票據的回報率,並帶來了巨大的收益。你知道什麼情況沒有變得更好嗎?衝突吧?Strife,無論 mNAV 是多少,扭力都是完全相同的。但您會發現,隨著 mNAV 的增加,使用 MSTR 和可轉換票據產生扭矩變得越來越容易。

  • Now, let's take a look at BTC multiple. This is also instructive. So you're sitting with an a multiple of one, your BTC mNAV is or BTC NAV is equal to your BTC equity. And what you can see is it doesn't really matter what your outlook is for BTC. Your Baltimore one and with converts, it's 1.4, and with Strike, it's going to get, there is a little bit of sensitivity, you can get up to a 2.3, a 2.3 multiple to 2.4. Tou can see when mNAV is pretty low, you have to go to strike or to strike, but now look at strife, look at the BTC multiples for that. You're going from 1 to 57. And if you're a Bitcoin maximalist, and you think you're going to get 30% ARR, you're getting 13.8 multiple.

    現在,我們來看看 BTC 倍數。這也是很有啟發的。因此,您擁有的倍數是 1,您的 BTC mNAV 或 BTC NAV 等於您的 BTC 權益。你會發現,你對 BTC 的展望如何並不重要。您的巴爾的摩版本,加上轉換率,是 1.4,而有了 Strike,它會變得有一點敏感度,您可以獲得高達 2.3,2.3 倍數到 2.4。你可以看到,當 mNAV 相當低時,你必須去打擊或打擊,但現在看看衝突,看看 BTC 倍數。你要從 1 到 57。如果你是比特幣極端主義者,並且你認為你將獲得 30% 的 ARR,那麼你將獲得 13.8 倍。

  • You could imagine driving the mNAV up, from 2 to 3 to 4 to 5 to 6 using strife type financing. Even when the mNAV is one, right? The mNAV could be one, but the issue is how much capital do you have? How much bitcoin do you have that's collateral? Because if you have a lot of Bitcoin that serves as collateral and you can sell a lot of strife or other kinds of currency swaps or fixed income instruments, you're going to actually put leverage back into the capital structure and you're going to drive that mNAV back up. And of course, you're going to drive out performance against BTC as well.

    你可以想像使用衝突型融資將 mNAV 從 2 提高到 3、4、5、6。即使 mNAV 是 1,對嗎?mNAV 可能是一個,但問題是你有多少資本?你有多少比特幣作為抵押?因為如果你有大量比特幣作為抵押品,並且你可以出售大量的衝突或其他類型的貨幣掉期或固定收益工具,你實際上會將槓桿重新放回資本結構中,並且你會推動 mNAV 回升。當然,你也會提高對 BTC 的表現。

  • Let's look at two. When mNAV goes to two. Well now you can see the equity is pretty, it's pretty predictable. two actually no matter what your BTC forecast is. And strife is pretty predictable as well, but the convertible notes start to become more effective and strike becomes a lot more effective when you're doing that capital raising at two and at three.

    讓我們來看兩個。當 mNAV 變為 2 時。現在您可以看到公平性相當高,而且相當可預測。二其實無論你的 BTC 預測是什麼。衝突也是可以預見的,但是當你在兩點和三點融資時,可轉換票據開始變得更有效,罷工變得更有效。

  • Now you see convertible financing at two at three, and you might very well put a floor of four or five mNAV underneath the stock, and with Strike you're getting to numbers like 456. With Strife, of course, Strife doesn't really care. So, this gives you a sense of the sensitivities of BTC torque and BTC multiples to mNAV. Now let's try to chart it.

    現在,你可以看到可轉換融資的價格為 2 至 3 美元,你很可能會將股票的 mNAV 設定為 4 至 5 美元,而使用 Strike,你就會得到 456 這樣的數字。當然,對 Strife 來說,Strife 並不在乎。因此,這讓您了解 BTC 扭力和 BTC 倍數對 mNAV 的敏感度。現在讓我們嘗試繪製圖表。

  • We've got a yield curve, and I'm showing you the BTC yield curve and On one side of the yield curve is strife, and what you can see is, I've created the yield curves for various mNAVs ranging from one to two to three to four to five. So when the mNAV is one, you've got a very steep yield curve, and you can see here that you're getting max yield with strife and some with strike, and then you're getting a bit with the converts. I mean, they all work and then you see the equity isn't generating any BTC yield.

    我們有一條殖利率曲線,我向你們展示的是 BTC 殖利率曲線,殖利率曲線的一側是衝突,你們可以看到,我為各種 mNAV 創建了殖利率曲線,從一到二到三到四到五。因此,當 mNAV 為 1 時,您會得到一條非常陡峭的殖利率曲線,您可以在這裡看到,透過衝突可以獲得最大收益率,透過罷工可以獲得一些收益率,然後透過轉換可以獲得一些收益率。我的意思是,它們都有效,然後你會發現股權並沒有產生任何 BTC 收益。

  • But as the mNAV increases, the yield curve flattens. And of course, you can see, at a yield at an mNAV of two, you're getting decent healthy yield across all parts of the yield curve. And as the mNAV increases and it flattens, then you can see the yields on the equity and the convertible equity instruments start to approach the yields from the hard, from strike and from strife. And this is important to keep in mind. Let me convert that to spreads for you.

    但隨著 mNAV 的增加,殖利率曲線趨於平緩。當然,您可以看到,當收益率為 2 時,您可以在殖利率曲線的所有部分獲得相當健康的收益率。隨著 mNAV 的增加和趨於平緩,您會看到股票和可轉換股票工具的收益率開始接近艱難、罷工和衝突帶來的收益率。牢記這一點很重要。讓我為您將其轉換為利差。

  • Spread is the percentage of the capital we raise, that results in a gain to the shareholders. That is, how much of the capital is an accretion, if I've got a spread, I've got an mNAV of five, that means when I sell $100 million worth of equity, $80 million is the value of the gain. And so our shareholders are capturing 80% of this, of that capital, right? 80% spread. So you can see here that, strife is a 100% spread instrument. Strike, generates spreads anywhere from 60% to 92%, based upon the mNAVs. The converts will generate spreads from 29% to 86%. And of course, MSTR, if the mNAV is one, it generates no spread. When the, but when the mNAV is two, it's 50% spread. There's a pretty big difference between two and one, massive difference. When you get to three, it's 67% spread, and that is 2/3 of all the capital you raise is a gain generating yield for the shareholders, and that yield is what allows us to outperform.

    利差是我們籌集的資本中為股東帶來收益的百分比。也就是說,有多少資本是增值的,如果我有一個利差,我的 mNAV 是 5,這意味著當我出售價值 1 億美元的股權時,8000 萬美元就是收益的價值。所以我們的股東就佔了其中 80% 的資本,對嗎?傳播率為 80%。所以你可以看到,衝突是一種 100% 傳播的工具。根據 mNAV,Strike 產生的利差在 60% 到 92% 之間。轉換將產生 29% 至 86% 的利差。當然,如果 mNAV 為 1,MSTR 就不會產生利差。但當 mNAV 為 2 時,其價差為 50%。二和一之間存在著相當大的差異,巨大的差異。當達到三倍時,利差為 67%,也就是說,您籌集的所有資本的三分之二為股東帶來了收益,而這種收益正是我們能夠跑贏大盤的關鍵。

  • Why don't we go to the next slide. So you're asking the question probably, well, this is all well and fine. If I'm selling these fixed income instruments, I'm getting a higher yield, I'm generating a higher spread, but what's the risk, you've got an 8% coupon or dividend on strike, you've got a 10% dividend on strife. So we think about what is the hurdle rate that we have to overcome in order to avoid missing our numbers or in this case, If I report that we generated a 100%, 100% spread on strife, and we show you BTC gain equal to $100 million.

    我們為什麼不轉到下一張投影片呢?所以你可能會問這個問題,嗯,這一切都很好。如果我出售這些固定收益工具,我會獲得更高的收益,產生更高的利差,但風險是什麼,你有 8% 的息票或股息,你有 10% 的股息。因此,我們會思考,為了避免錯過我們的數字,我們必須克服的最低收益率是多少,或者在這種情況下,如果我報告我們在衝突中產生了 100%、100% 的利差,我們會向您展示相當於 1 億美元的 BTC 收益。

  • Well, under what circumstances would that not be true in a decade? And the answer is, as long as BTC ARR is north of 7.2%, then that gain holds. So in essence, the hurdle rate is 7.2% for strife. The hurdle rate for strike is 6.1%. the hurdle rate for the converts is 2%. And the hurdle rate for the equity, intuitively, this should not be surprising, is 0%. As long as the Bitcoin is appreciating more than 0%, then there will have been a gain and a yield on an equity transaction.

    那麼,十年後在什麼情況下這種情況不會發生呢?答案是,只要 BTC ARR 高於 7.2%,那麼收益就會維持。因此,從本質上講,衝突的最低收益率是 7.2%。罷工的最低收益率為6.1%。轉換者的最低收益率為 2%。從直覺上看,股權的最低收益率為 0%,這並不奇怪。只要比特幣的升值幅度超過0%,那麼股票交易就會有收益和收益率。

  • And so, generally, most of our equity investors expect BTC to appreciate more than 7.2%. and, as I said, the maximus thinks 30%. So generally, if you believe BTC is going up, 1,020, 30%, most of the financing we're doing is comfortably above these hurdle rates, which means that when we say we generated a BTC yield of some percentage or a BTC gain of something, I think you can be comfortable that it's a reasonable metric, for you, to take into account.

    因此,總體而言,我們的大多數股票投資者預計 BTC 的升值幅度將超過 7.2%。而且,正如我所說,最高人民法院認為是 30%。因此,一般來說,如果您相信 BTC 會上漲 1,020,即 30%,那麼我們所做的大部分融資都遠高於這些最低收益率,這意味著,當我們說我們產生了一定百分比的 BTC 收益率或 BTC 收益時,我認為您可以放心,這是一個合理的指標,您可以將其考慮在內。

  • Now, let's think about break evens. Under what circumstances would it be a mistake will to have done in these financings? Or another way to say it is, are there any circumstances under which we don't create shareholder value? I'm using a 10 year time frame. And so I'm going to show you some numbers. If we sell equity at one times mNAV and the price of BTC is 95,000, the break-even price is 95,000 in 10 years, and the and the BTC, ARR or the break-even rate is 0%.

    現在,讓我們考慮一下損益平衡。在什麼情況下,這些融資行為將會是個錯誤?或者換句話說,在什麼情況下我們不會創造股東價值?我使用 10 年的時間範圍。所以我要給你們展示一些數字。如果我們以 1 倍 mNAV 的價格出售股權,且 BTC 的價格為 95,000,則 10 年後的損益平衡價格為 95,000,而 BTC、ARR 或損益平衡率為 0%。

  • That's kind of common sense. Now, what if I sell it in mNAV of 2? Well, the break even price drops to 47,000. Bitcoin could decrease 6% a year for a decade, and you would still be better off as a common stock shareholder with us having done that transaction. So, in fact, when we're selling equity at mNAVs of 2,345, we're de-risking.

    這是一種常識。現在,如果我以 2 的 mNAV 出售它會怎樣?那麼,損益平衡價格就降到了 47,000。比特幣可能在十年內每年下跌 6%,但如果您作為與我們進行這筆交易的普通股股東,您的收益仍然會更好。因此,事實上,當我們以 2,345 的 mNAV 出售股票時,我們正在降低風險。

  • The company, we're not increasing the risk. And so you can see here, I've got the breakeven prices and the break even rates for the equity for the converts. I've got it for strike, I've got it for strife, common, it's kind of a bit of a surprise, but, we sell a lot of strife. We attach a 10% dividend to it, but it turns out that even if, Bitcoin goes up 0% a year, we're still breaking even over the 10 years. So we're not actually taking, I think, as much risk as it might be perceived by a traditional investor who doesn't really think hard about what's going on here. Let me show you some pictures to make this easier.

    對於公司來說,我們不會增加風險。所以您可以在這裡看到,我得到了轉換者的股權的損益平衡價格和損益平衡利率。我有用於罷工的,也有用於衝突的,很常見,這有點令人驚訝,但是,我們賣了很多衝突。我們為其附加 10% 的股息,但事實證明,即使比特幣每年上漲 0%,我們在 10 年內仍能達到收支平衡。因此,我認為,我們實際上並沒有承擔像傳統投資者所認為的那麼大的風險,因為傳統投資者並沒有認真考慮這裡發生了什麼。讓我給你看一些圖片以使這更容易理解。

  • This is a break-even price for equity over the 10 years, and what you can see is that if you thought that Bitcoin was going to go down to $65,000 a coin over 10 years, and you had a chance to sell it at two times mNAV, you should do it right? Whenever a a BTC treasury company, a BTC company is selling at 2,345 times mNAV, they're de-risking the entire value proposition for their investors. They're not increasing risk at all. And you can see, if you get a chance to actually sell equity at five times mNav, Bitcoin could crash to $20,000 a coin and you would have created shareholder value having done it over a decade.

    這是 10 年內股權的盈虧平衡價格,您可以看到,如果您認為比特幣的價格將在 10 年內跌至每枚 65,000 美元,並且您有機會以兩倍的 mNAV 出售它,您應該這樣做,對嗎?每當 BTC 財務公司以 2,345 倍 mNAV 的價格出售時,他們就會為投資者降低整個價值主張的風險。它們根本沒有增加風險。您可以看到,如果您有機會以五倍的 mNav 出售股票,比特幣價格可能會跌至每枚 20,000 美元,而您在十多年內這樣做就會創造股東價值。

  • Let's go to the next slide. This shows that same break even price for convertible notes. And as you can see, it's really, it's a lot less risky than you might think it is. I mean, you're staring at the numbers. Bitcoin can literally go down and you're, you would have wanted to have done this. And this is on an isolated basis too. That is to say, we're just isolating this transaction. We're not considering the second and third order benefits of having raised billions of dollars of capital.

    我們來看下一張投影片。這表示可轉換票據的損益平衡價格相同。如您所見,它的風險確實比您想像的要小得多。我的意思是,你正盯著這些數字。比特幣確實可能會下跌,而你也會想這麼做。這也是孤立的情況。也就是說,我們只是隔離這個交易。我們沒有考慮籌集數十億美元資金所帶來的第二和第三級利益。

  • If you raise extra capital, you get more liquidity, you might get more volatility, the ball will go up, people will come in, it'll increase the MSTR rate, it'll attract new capital, etc. So. There's a lot of integrated benefits from this, but on an isolated basis, there's the break even price.

    如果你籌集了額外的資本,你就會獲得更多的流動性,你可能會獲得更多的波動性,球會上升,人們會進來,它會提高 MSTR 率,它會吸引新的資本,等等。所以。這有很多綜合效益,但單獨來看,還有損益平衡價格。

  • Let's go to the next. So you see what Strike. The breaking price is a function of mNAV, and it's a lot less correlated than the equity is, but you can see the higher the mNAV, the less risk there is. And the truth is, when you're doing a transaction like this, it's kind of beneficial, to you under most circumstances it de-risks the balance sheet.

    我們進入下一個吧。所以你看到了什麼是 Strike。違約價格是 mNAV 的函數,其相關性比股票低得多,但您可以看到 mNAV 越高,風險越小。事實是,當你進行這樣的交易時,它對你來說是有好處的,在大多數情況下,它可以降低資產負債表的風險。

  • Next, and of course S

    接下來,當然是 S

  • Next, And trife, this is very simple. 85,000, 85,000, right? Doesn't matter what the mNAV is, it doesn't and you can figure out that if you think that BTC is going up in value, then probably this is a good idea if it's going down, it's probably not a great idea.

    接下來,還有 trife,這個很簡單。 85,000,85,000,對吧?mNAV 是多少並不重要,你可以發現,如果你認為 BTC 的價值正在上升,那麼這可能是一個好主意;如果它的價值正在下降,那麼這可能不是一個好主意。

  • Let's go to the next. So now I'm going to talk about, the $100 billion dollar question, which is, why does MSTR trade at a multiple to BTC NAV? And, there's a lot of misconceptions about this, and people, you hear all sorts of things, people think it, they don't really understand why, and, I think I'd like to share some of my observation as to why.

    我們進入下一個吧。所以現在我要談這個價值 1000 億美元的問題,那就是為什麼 MSTR 的交易價格是 BTC NAV 的數倍?對此有許多誤解,人們聽到各種各樣的說法,認為這是事實,但他們並不真正理解為什麼,我想分享一些我的觀察。

  • First of all, MSTR, the security, has a compliance advantage over BTC, the commodity, or BTCpot ETFs for many investors. Many classes, many investors, either they have their money, locked up in funds where they're not allowed by the trustee or the custodian to buy BTC. They, there are many wealth managers that won't let you buy the ETFs.

    首先,對許多投資者來說,證券 MSTR 比商品 BTC 或 BTCpot ETF 具有合規優勢。許多階層、許多投資者要麼將自己的錢鎖定在基金中,要麼不被受託人或託管人允許購買 BTC。他們,有很多財富經理人不會讓你買 ETF。

  • There are countries like in the UK where there are examples where they would let you buy MSTR but you couldn't buy BTC. There are places, there are many brokers, they will let you buy MSTR, they won't let you buy the BTC Spot ETF. So, when the security has a compliance advantage, then there are pools of capital that are going to buy it because their choice is to not get any BTC exposure or to do it through MSTR. That creates a premium to NavV.

    在某些國家,像是英國,他們允許你購買 MSTR,但不允許你購買 BTC。有很多地方,有很多經紀人,他們會讓你買 MSTR,但他們不會讓你買 BTC 現貨 ETF。因此,當證券具有合規優勢時,就會有資金池購買它,因為他們的選擇是不獲得任何 BTC 風險敞口或透過 MSTR 來購買。這使得 NavV 產生溢價。

  • The second point, MSTR is a credit advantage to BTC. If I have an, if I have a security trading on the NASDAQ, that's deeply liquid, I could borrow against it by a margin loan. Maybe I get a sour plus 100 basis point loan. That means that, I have a lot of capital, and now it's liquid I can borrow against it from, a big bank that I trust. I can't borrow at sour plus 100 basis points against BTC from my Morgan Stanley or JPMorgan or Bank of America or fill in the name of a big bulge bracket bank. So I can't get margin loans on BTC at all. And in most cases, you can't get a margin loan against BTC spot ETFs. It's very hard to find people that will extend margin credit. So this impacts the market in two ways.

    第二點,MSTR對BTC來說是一個信用優勢。如果我有在納斯達克交易的證券,並且流動性很強,我可以透過保證金貸款來借款。也許我會得到一筆利率加 100 個基點的貸款。這意味著,我擁有大量資本,現在這些資本是流動的,我可以向我信任的一家大銀行借款。我無法向摩根士丹利、摩根大通或美國銀行以 BTC 利率加 100 個基點借款,也無法以大型投行的名義借款。所以我根本無法獲得 BTC 的保證金貸款。而且在大多數情況下,你無法獲得 BTC 現貨 ETF 的保證金貸款。很難找到願意提供保證金信貸的人。這會以兩種方式影響市場。

  • One I could buy a bunch of MSTR and hold it forever and just live off of loans that I take against it while it appreciates. And that's a nice strategy. The other way it impacts is if I had a portfolio with fill in the blank. If I had $100 million of equities, I could buy a million dollars of MSTR borrowing the money from my prime broker with no cash down. So people can buy and leverage into a company that has a credit advantage, and then they can borrow against it and margin it.

    一是我可以購買大量 MSTR 並永遠持有,並在其升值期間靠抵押借入的貸款生活。這是一個很好的策略。它產生的另一種影響是,如果我有一個填空的投資組合。如果我有 1 億美元的股票,我可以從我的主經紀商那裡借錢購買 100 萬美元的 MSTR,無需支付現金。因此,人們可以購買並利用具有信用優勢的公司,然後可以以此為抵押進行借款並獲得保證金。

  • And so you have to ask the question, if you live in a neighborhood and the houses on the left side of the street are eligible for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgages, and the houses on the right side of the street, you have to pay cash for and you can't put a mortgage on, all things being equal, if the two houses are identical on either side of the street, which house is going to have the higher price?

    所以你必須問這個問題,如果你住在一個街區,街道左側的房子有資格獲得房利美或房地美抵押貸款,而街道右側的房子,你必須支付現金,你不能提供抵押貸款,在其他條件相同的情況下,如果街道兩邊的兩棟房子完全相同,哪棟房子的價格會更高?

  • And I don't think it's complicated to figure out that if I can borrow the money to buy the house on the left side of the street, I'll pay more for that house because there's no money down and there's 20% deposit. And if I have to come up with cash to buy the house on the right side of the street, I'm going to offer less as a cash buyer because it takes me 20 extra years of my life to come up with cash. I mean, it's not complicated, right? It's financeable and BTC is not really being financed. I don't know of any major bank in the world that will finance BTC, and I, and it's very difficult, to find anybody that'll finance BTC spot ETFs.

    我認為這並不複雜,如果我可以藉錢買街道左側的房子,我會為那所房子支付更多錢,因為沒有首付,而且有 20% 的押金。如果我必須拿出現金來購買街道右側的房子,那麼作為現金買家,我會出價較低,因為我需要額外花費 20 年的時間來籌集現金。我的意思是,這並不複雜,對吧?它是可融資的,而 BTC 實際上並沒有得到融資。我不知道世界上有哪家大型銀行願意為 BTC 提供融資,而且我也很難找到任何願意為 BTC 現貨 ETF 提供融資的銀行。

  • So let's go to the third point. MSDR has a higher volatility than BTC. And, we talked about it, if Bitcoin is trading with a ball of 50, we'll often be times be 80. If it's 60, we might be 90. That results in a higher MSTR rate than say the IIT rate. That means that, you have a larger, deeper, richer options market. Why would I want to accept 60% when I could get 100%, right? I mean, it's very simple apples to apples thing. So the volatility drives the options market, drives the yields, attracts capital.

    那我們來討論第三點。MSDR 的波動性比 BTC 更高。而且,我們討論過,如果比特幣以 50 的價格進行交易,那麼我們通常會將其倍數設為 80。如果是 60,那我們可能是 90。這導致 MSTR 稅率高於 IIT 稅率。這意味著,你擁有更大、更深、更豐富的選擇權市場。當我可以獲得 100% 時,我為什麼要接受 60% 呢,對嗎?我的意思是,這是非常簡單的蘋果與蘋果之間的事。因此,波動性推動選擇權市場、推動收益率並吸引資本。

  • The next point I'll make is that the options they have that higher simple annualized interest rate for those selling ball, and that makes it possible to create ETF instruments like MSTY and IMST. And those, ETFs, they basically are selling the ball of MSTR and they have very high annualized dividend yields. So for a typical investor that wants to capture a 100%, 150%, 200% dividend yield by selling the ball, they don't want to, it's difficult to trade in the options market and so maybe they just buy MSTY or IMST.

    我接下來要說的一點是,對於那些出售股票的人來說,他們的選擇是更高的簡單年化利率,這使得創建 MSTY 和 IMST 等 ETF 工具成為可能。那些 ETF 基本上都在出售 MSTR 的股票,而且它們的年化股息殖利率非常高。因此,對於想要透過出售股票來獲得 100%、150%、200% 股息收益率的典型投資者來說,他們並不想這樣做,因為在期權市場上交易很困難,所以他們可能只會購買 MSTY 或 IMST。

  • That makes it easier for investors to monetize that volatility. How popular is this? Well, MSTY, today looked like it had $3.1 billion or $3.2 billion of AUM in it, and IMST has raised something like $40 million of capital in a few weeks, a week or two weeks or something, not that long. And so these are attracting capital flows when they, and they're attracting capital that wants to monetize that volatility. And they're part of our emerging ecosystem.

    這使得投資者更容易將波動性貨幣化。這有多受歡迎?嗯,MSTY 今天看起來擁有 31 億美元或 32 億美元的 AUM,而 IMST 在幾週、一周或兩週左右的時間內籌集了大約 4000 萬美元的資金,時間並不長。因此,當它們吸引資本流動時,它們會吸引那些想要將波動性貨幣化的資本。它們是我們新興生態系統的一部分。

  • And so why MSTR? Because we're the most liquid, we're the most volatile, we're the most durable. And we're the most credible place to get that. So our equity is becoming volatile, liquid collateral for traders, and that creates a demand for the equity that drives up the price of the equity as these instruments are delta hedged or as people buy the underlying equity so they can sell the [coed cos].

    那為什麼是 MSTR?因為我們的流動性最強,波動性最強,而且最持久。我們是獲取這些資訊的最可靠的地方。因此,我們的股票正在成為交易員的波動性、流動性抵押品,這創造了對股票的需求,推高了股票價格,因為這些工具是 delta 對沖的,或者當人們購買基礎股票以便出售[男女同校 cos]。

  • My next point I'll make is that our convertible bonds, they attract capital from a new class of arbitragers and hedge funds that otherwise they wouldn't buy BTC and otherwise they wouldn't buy BTC spot ETFs. So if you're unique, you've got a differentiator and we're an operating company, we can issue convertible bonds. A spot ETF cannot, and there isn't any comparable type instrument on top of a BTC commodity.

    我接下來要說的是,我們的可轉換債券吸引了新一類套利者和對沖基金的資本,否則他們不會購買 BTC,也不會購買 BTC 現貨 ETF。因此,如果你是獨一無二的,你有差異化優勢,而我們是一家營運公司,我們就可以發行可轉換債券。現貨 ETF 不能,而且 BTC 商品之上也沒有任何可比較類型的工具。

  • That takes me to my next point, which is BMAX, which is another ETF that was launched. It provides investors with a very convenient way to access MSTR converts. So most investors, if you're not QIB or 144 A certified or compliant, you can't just buy the convertible bonds, they're over the counter traded. But you could buy BMAX and BMAX buys, it's like 80% or something exposed to MSTR convertible bonds.

    這就引出了我的下一個觀點,即 BMAX,這是另一隻新推出的 ETF。它為投資者提供了一種非常便捷的方式來存取 MSTR 轉換。因此,對於大多數投資者來說,如果您未獲得 QIB 或 144 A 認證或合規,您就無法直接購買可轉換債券,因為它們是在場外交易的。但你可以購買 BMAX,而 BMAX 買入的金額相當於 80% 左右的 MSTR 可轉換債券。

  • So, that's a unique, characteristic of MSTR again, the uniqueness, the opportunity is a differentiator. MSTR, the security is included in QQQ, MSCI, and crypto indices. And as we get built into all these ETFs, that drives passive capital flow. And so, on a day when the NASDAQ 100 is surging up 2%, there's a lot of capital, that's going to go into the risk on trade. It's going to go into QQQ that will find its way to us. That is an advantage over underlying BTC. The BTC ETFs and BTC itself, they're not in the NASDAQ index. And so, if you're wondering, why would there be more demand for our stock because we're a security and because we do get index like this.

    所以,這又是 MSTR 的一個獨特之處,獨特性、機會就是差異化因素。MSTR,該證券包含在 QQQ、MSCI 和加密指數中。隨著我們融入所有這些 ETF,這將推動被動資本流動。因此,當納斯達克 100 指數飆升 2% 時,大量資本將投入交易風險。它將進入 QQQ,然後找到我們。這是相對於基礎 BTC 的一個優勢。BTC ETF 和 BTC 本身並不包含在納斯達克指數中。所以,如果您想知道,為什麼我們的股票會有更多需求,因為我們是證券,而我們確實獲得了這樣的指數。

  • The next point I'm making is that the MSTR brand is recognized worldwide and so our brand recognition and our scale, they drive superior investor interest. It's very common, and it's very interesting. To note, if you combine this with the next point, many investors, they're obligated, to invest in securities or they're biased toward investing in securities, because the history of commodities is not good, right? The only commodity that you could ever invest in over the long term is gold and gold is considered to be, kind of, a slow debt asset.

    我想說的下一點是,MSTR 品牌在全球範圍內得到認可,因此我們的品牌知名度和規模能夠吸引更多投資者的興趣。這是很常見的,也是很有趣的。需要注意的是,如果將這一點與下一點結合起來,許多投資者有義務投資證券,或者傾向於投資證券,因為商品的歷史並不好,對嗎?唯一可以長期投資的商品是黃金,而黃金被認為是一種慢速債務資產。

  • So most investors, the great majority of their money is made investing in securities. So when I'm speaking at investor conferences and I'm telling everybody how great Bitcoin is, and I'm giving them 100 reasons why Bitcoin is great, it's not uncommon that they say, well, I decided to buy your stock. I don't have to ask them. They like, well, I get it, the Bitcoin is great, but my prime broker doesn't handle Bitcoin, and I just want to buy the security. It's quick, easy, it's marginable. I can buy it in fifteen seconds. And people can't, it's like, why did Domino's Pizza get successful? Domino's Pizza was successful because people like pizza, and because anywhere in the country, you could pick up the phone, call the opera and say, give me Domino's and say, hey, send a pizza. And you know that there's a Domino's pizza somewhere close to you. And it's like, I, the brand is weaker for the next 100 pizza companies. Maybe their pizza is better, but I just don't know who's in the place I'm traveling to.

    因此,大多數投資者的大部分資金都是透過投資證券獲得的。因此,當我在投資者會議上發言並告訴每個人比特幣有多棒,並給他們 100 個理由來說明比特幣為什麼棒時,他們通常會說,好吧,我決定購買你的股票。我不需要問他們。他們喜歡,好吧,我明白,比特幣很棒,但我的主要經紀人不處理比特幣,我只想購買證券。它快捷、簡單、可用。我可以在十五秒內買到它。人們卻無法理解,為什麼達美樂披薩會成功?達美樂披薩之所以成功,是因為人們喜歡披薩,也因為在全國任何地方,你都可以拿起電話,打給歌劇院,說,給我達美樂,然後說,嘿,送個披薩來。你知道你附近有一家達美樂披薩店。在我看來,對於接下來的 100 家披薩公司來說,這個品牌的影響力比較弱。也許他們的披薩比較好,但我只是不知道我要去的地方有誰。

  • So, it's just like, why do people buy Diet Coke? I go to a restaurant and I ask for some other kind of coke. They don't have it. And then I ask for diet, whatever. They don't have it, and I get frustrated. And after I get beat down cause I don't have it, I think, I'm just going to ask for Diet Coke cause I know there's a 95% chance they're going to have it.

    那麼,這就像,人們為什麼要買健怡可樂?我去一家餐館,我要了其他種類的可樂。他們沒有。然後我問飲食,不管怎樣。他們沒有,我感到很沮喪。當我因為沒有而感到沮喪時,我想,我只會要一杯健怡可樂,因為我知道他們有 95% 的可能性會有。

  • So you're an investor, you have a lot of money, you don't have a lot of attention span, what is this Bitcoin thing? What's the stock I can buy, micro strategy or strategy, I see that on the screen. The brand does matter. It makes things easier, it's, if I'm going to buy the third best or the fourth best or the fifth best, I got to research it. I don't, no one's heard of it before. There's a lot of impedance.

    所以你是投資者,你有很多錢,但你的注意力不集中,比特幣是什麼?我可以買什麼股票,微策略還是策略,我在螢幕上看到。品牌確實很重要。這讓事情變得更容易,如果我要買第三好的、第四好的或第五好的,我必須研究它。我不知道,之前沒人聽過。存在很大的阻抗。

  • And so, with that, you see, the next point I'll make is that MSTR represents the strongest BTC exposure in the strongest capital market. A lot of people want to buy a stock in the United States on the NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange. They trust it, and if you're looking for BTC exposure, give me the biggest and give me in the safest place. It's very simple.

    因此,您看,我要說的下一點是,MSTR 代表著最強大的資本市場中最強大的 BTC 曝險。很多人都想在納斯達克和紐約證券交易所買美國股票。他們信任它,如果你正在尋找 BTC 曝光,請給我最大的,並給我最安全的地方。這很簡單。

  • The last 3 points I make on this NAB thing is that Strike is a unique security. It's a lot more leverage than equity. It's a lot more leverage than a convertible bond. Again, as I pointed out, it's quite possible we'll sell, we could sell a lot of Strike, billions and billions of dollars of it that's backed by a lot of equity and the equity never, the conversion rate never takes place because people don't choose to convert it to common equity. And so you're creating a lot of leverage when you finance with Strike. And you're acquiring a new class of investors that maybe would be afraid to invest in common equity because it's too much of a roller coaster.

    關於 NAB 這件事,我要說的最後三點是,Strike 是一種獨特的證券。它的槓桿作用比股權大得多。它的槓桿作用比可轉換債券大得多。再次,正如我指出的,我們很可能會出售,我們可能會出售大量的 Strike,價值數十億美元的,這些股票是由大量股權支持的,而股權永遠不會轉換,因為人們不會選擇將其轉換為普通股。因此,當您使用 Strike 融資時,您會創造很大的槓桿作用。你正在吸引一批新的投資者,他們可能不敢投資普通股,因為投資普通股就像坐雲霄飛車一樣。

  • By the way, there are a lot of people who might like Bitcoin and they're afraid to invest in a spot ETF because what they want is kind of like Bitcoin with guardrails and or Bitcoin with the downside insurance policy and Strike looks more like something with guardrails, than just buying the straight spot ETF that gives you pure Bitcoin ball.

    順便說一句,很多人可能喜歡比特幣,但他們不敢投資現貨 ETF,因為他們想要的是帶有護欄的比特幣或帶有下行保險政策的比特幣,而 Strike 看起來更像是帶有護欄的東西,而不是直接購買可以給你純比特幣球的現行 ETF。

  • Strife, another example of a unique fixed income security. It attracts new types of capital. It's a perpetual dividend. There's no one offering a 10% dividend at par forever. It's very uncommon to see that. I've never seen that in any other security. And it's also, as Andrew pointed out, these things are high performing, but they're very liquid. And the fact that they're high performing and liquid is a is an appeal to an investor, and they draw new capital and as capital flows into strike and strive, that's extremely accretive and leveraging for the performance of the equity.

    Strife,另一個獨特的固定收益證券的例子。它吸引了新型資本。這是永久性的股息。沒有人會永遠提供 10% 的面額股息。這種情況非常罕見。我從未在任何其他安全措施中見過這種情況。而且,正如安德魯指出的那樣,這些東西性能很好,但流動性很強。它們的高績效和高流動性對投資者來說很有吸引力,它們吸引新的資本,隨著資本流入罷工和奮鬥,這對股權的表現具有極大的增值和槓桿作用。

  • If you study banks, you'll notice the number one strategy of most banks in order to create leverage for the common stock is they issue preferred stock. It's a safe way to do it. It's mezzanine capital, mezzanine equity, if you will. And so, you could say we're doing something innovative, but we're all Also lifting a page from the book of conventional banking by putting in place this mezzanine capital structure. And if you were to ask any bank, why do you do it, the answer is it's good for our common stock. It increases the yield, the dividend on the common stock without creating risk on the balance sheet.

    如果你研究銀行,你會發現大多數銀行為了創造普通股槓桿的首要策略是發行優先股。這是一種安全的方法。如果你願意的話,這就是夾層資本,夾層股權。因此,你可以說我們正在做一些創新的事情,但我們也正在透過建立這種夾層資本結構來借鏡傳統銀行的做法。如果你問任何一家銀行為什麼要這樣做,答案是這對我們的普通股有好處。它增加了普通股的收益率和股息,而不會對資產負債表帶來風險。

  • The last point I make here is that We have the potential to generate BTC yield in perpetuity via fixed income securities. The mNAV could go to zero. We can still generate yield by selling strike, selling strife, selling other corporate bonds, selling any fixed income instrument, and we also can scale up the sales of those things. In essence, if we're selling something 10x over collateralized by BTC, we can basically sell preferred instruments or equal to 10% of the capital structure and if Bitcoin goes up, we just keep scaling up the preferred instrument in the same way. So this is an opportunity that it isn't like it's one and done. It's like we could reasonably be doing this forever, because there's always going to be a demand, for USD yield.

    我在這裡要說的最後一點是,我們有潛力透過固定收益證券永久地產生 BTC 收益。mNAV 可能會降至零。我們仍然可以透過出售罷工債券、出售衝突債券、出售其他公司債券、出售任何固定收益工具來獲得收益,而且我們還可以擴大這些東西的銷售。本質上,如果我們出售 BTC 抵押品 10 倍以上的資產,我們基本上可以出售優先工具或相當於資本結構的 10%,如果比特幣上漲,我們只需以同樣的方式繼續增加優先工具的規模。所以這是一個機會,但它並不是一次性的。我們可以合理地永遠這樣做,因為美元收益的需求總是存在的。

  • And if you believe that, BTC is going to have the performance of the S&P index or more, then you'll always be able to swap BTC yield for USD yield and capture a spread. And if we can do that, then we can create performance which is superior to BTC. And we can maintain a multiple of NAV.

    如果您相信 BTC 的表現將與標準普爾指數持平甚至更高,那麼您將始終能夠將 BTC 收益率換成美元收益率並獲得利差。如果我們能做到這一點,那麼我們就能創造出優於 BTC 的效能。我們可以維持淨值的倍數。

  • I tend to think that a very reasonable way to calculate the right BTC premium for the company would be to take the expected BTC yield and multiply it by a multiple of 10 to 20. So if we can generate 25% BTC yield, then 10 times that would be a 250% premium to NAV, an mNAV of 3.5%. If you will, and if we can, if you put a 20 multiple on it, you could get, find your way to a 500% premium, to NAV. And so, You look at all these things in their entirety, and then you take into account the rate at which we raise capital and the spread at which we raise the capital, then all of those things give you a sense of how we outperform Bitcoin and how we grow the NAV.

    我傾向於認為,計算公司正確的 BTC 溢價的一個非常合理的方法是將預期的 BTC 收益率乘以 10 到 20 的倍數。因此,如果我們能夠產生 25% 的 BTC 收益率,那麼 10 倍的收益率將達到 NAV 的 250% 溢價,即 mNAV 為 3.5%。如果您願意,如果我們可以的話,如果您將其乘以 20,您就可以獲得 500% 的溢價,即資產淨值。因此,你從整體上看待所有這些事情,然後考慮到我們籌集資金的速度和籌集資金的利差,所有這些事情都會讓你了解我們如何超越比特幣以及我們如何增加資產淨值。

  • Let's go to the next section. One thing. Yeah, let's go to the next page, sorry. Yeah. What's our strategy to maximize shareholder value?

    我們進入下一部分。有一件事。是的,讓我們進入下一頁,抱歉。是的。我們實現股東價值最大化的策略是什麼?

  • Well, continuously adjust the rate and the mix of our BTC Treasury operations based on market conditions. We're going to work the yield curve. When the yield curve is steep, we go to the far end of the yield curve and we do fixed income. When the yield curve is flat, we work all sides of the yield curve. And also there's a function of how much demand is there in the market for every type of security we're selling.

    嗯,根據市場情況不斷調整我們的 BTC 財務營運的利率和組合。我們將計算殖利率曲線。當殖利率曲線陡峭時,我們會轉向殖利率曲線的遠端並進行固定收益。當殖利率曲線平坦時,我們會計算殖利率曲線的所有邊。此外,我們還需要考慮市場對我們所銷售的每一種證券的需求量。

  • And then we're balancing near term capture of BTC yield and gain with long-term BTC value creation. Yeah, I mean, I can maximize the yield and the gain this year, but I also got to look out over the next decade. And as you can see from my slides, 90% of the gain is going to be over the 10 year period that follows the transaction. So we're always balancing short term versus long term, just like, Amazon did that for 20 years.

    然後,我們在短期內獲取 BTC 收益和利潤與長期 BTC 價值創造之間取得平衡。是的,我的意思是,我可以最大化今年的產量和收益,但我也必須專注於未來十年。正如您從我的幻燈片中看到的,90% 的收益將在交易後的 10 年內實現。因此,我們總是在短期和長期之間取得平衡,就像亞馬遜 20 年來所做的那樣。

  • The goal is to drive up the stock price, to drive MSTR to the max, and then to grow the company and reach its full potential. So, we will support mNAV. Right? And are, we are seeking to drive it up over time. So, when you look at the mNAV and you're wondering what are we thinking? Well, we're thinking, we want it to go up, not down. We're never acting to hammer it down. When the mNAV is expanding and when there's massive demand in the marketplace, then of course, we're looking to sell and, convert that into a BTC Gain, a BTC Yield, and BTC. Income and BTC value over time.

    目標是提高股價,最大限度地推動 MSTR,然後發展公司並充分發揮其潛力。因此,我們將支援 mNAV。正確的?並且,我們正在努力隨著時間的推移提高這一水平。那麼,當您查看 mNAV 時,您會想知道我們在想什麼?嗯,我們在想,我們希望它上升,而不是下降。我們永遠不會採取行動來壓制它。當 mNAV 擴大且市場需求巨大時,我們當然會尋求出售並將其轉換為 BTC 收益、BTC 收益率和 BTC。收入和 BTC 價值隨時間的變化。

  • So, the best way, of course, for us to generate the, to support the is maximize intelligent leverage with strike, with strife and other fixed income instruments. We'll be educating the capital markets to build demand for every type of security we issue, so there's a lot of investor relations and education. We will work to attract capital, new forms of capital, by creating innovative securities for new classes of investors.

    因此,當然,對我們來說,產生和支持的最佳方法是透過罷工、衝突和其他固定收益工具來最大限度地發揮智慧槓桿的作用。我們將對資本市場進行教育,以建立對我們發行的每種證券的需求,因此需要大量的投資者關係和教育。我們將努力為新類型的投資者創造創新證券,以吸引資本和新型資本。

  • Strife is a new type of security. Strike is a new type of security. We have other ideas for new types of security. Securities that would attract capital from global markets, attracting capital from Japan or Europe or Canada or other markets, and also attract capital from other classes of investors, different types of investors that want a different risk return ball profile, and yield profile. And so we have some flexibility there.

    衝突是一種新型的安全。Strike 是一種新型的安全措施。我們對新型安全還有其他想法。這些證券不僅能吸引來自全球市場的資本,還能吸引來自日本、歐洲、加拿大或其他市場的資本,還能吸引來自其他類別投資者的資本,不同類型的投資者希望獲得不同的風險回報球狀況和收益狀況。因此我們在這方面具有一定的彈性。

  • We're going to create and share BTC credit metrics and models that can assist investors in valuing and assessing the risk of BTC collateralized credit instruments. And we're going to pursue credit ratings for our fixed income securities. So the credit side of this is really important because as you can see from my torque and my multiple calculations, the thing that will drive our out performance that allows us to achieve a 2x BTC return or get mNAVs of 4,568. If we want to drive that up, if we want to drive our performance up, if we want 2 times or 3 times the volatility of BTC, over time, then we need to develop the credit markets.

    我們將創建和分享 BTC 信用指標和模型,以幫助投資者評估和評估 BTC 抵押信用工具的風險。我們將對我們的固定收益證券進行信用評級。因此,信用方面非常重要,因為正如您從我的扭矩和多次計算中看到的那樣,推動我們業績增長的因素使我們能夠實現 2 倍 BTC 回報或獲得 4,568 的 mNAV。如果我們想要提高這一水平,如果我們想要提高我們的業績,如果我們想要隨著時間的推移,BTC 的波動性增加 2 倍或 3 倍,那麼我們就需要發展信貸市場。

  • And I've thrown a lot of metrics at you, and I've talked about a lot of things. We have a lot of securities, but lest there be any confusion, MSTR, the common equity that is, that's the principal metric for shareholder value creation and company performance. So if you're asking what is winning? Winning is maximizing the price of MSTR, right? I mean, if I have a choice of driving the price up by a factor of 10 and having mNAV be three, or having the price go up by a factor of two and have mNAV be six.

    我已經向你們提出了很多指標,也談了很多事情。我們有許多證券,但為了避免混淆,MSTR,即普通股,是股東價值創造和公司績效的主要指標。那如果你問什麼是勝利?勝利就是要最大化 MSTR 的價格,對嗎?我的意思是,如果我可以選擇將價格上漲 10 倍,使 mNAV 為 3,或將價格上漲 2 倍,使 mNAV 為 6。

  • I think that you would want me to drive the price up by a factor of 10, not a factor of two. So we're always thinking about the, what is going to maximize, MSTR shareholder value creation, and we're balancing every other, metric against it. Now, I've talked about BTC credit and that's important to our strategy. So why don't we go into a bit more detail on that, because I think that's also very important.

    我想你會希望我將價格提高 10 倍,而不是 2 倍。因此,我們一直在思考如何最大化 MSTR 股東價值創造,我們正在平衡所有其他指標。現在,我已經談到了 BTC 信用,這對我們的策略很重要。那我們為什麼不更詳細地討論一下這個問題呢,因為我認為這也很重要。

  • I'm going to share with you our BTC credit model and our credit analysis. So let's just start with a few important metrics. The BTC rating, that would be the amount of collateral we have versus in BTC divided by the liability. So we have $10 of Bitcoin against a $1 liability, that would be a BTC rating of $10. And BTC risk is the probability of that liability, that debt instrument being under collateralized by BTC at the end of its term. I've got $10 of collateral, I got $1 bond or $1 of debt, and it's 5 years. In 5 years, am I still going to have the $1 to cover the liability? That's the risk.

    我將與大家分享我們的BTC信用模型和信用分析。那我們就從幾個重要的指標開始吧。BTC 評級是我們擁有的抵押品數量與 BTC 數量之比除以負債。因此,我們有 10 美元的比特幣來對抗 1 美元的負債,那麼 BTC 評級就是 10 美元。BTC 風險是指該負債、該債務工具在其期限結束時無法以 BTC 提供抵押的可能性。我有 10 美元的抵押品,1 美元的債券或 1 美元的債務,期限為 5 年。五年後,我還能有 1 美元償還債務嗎?這就是風險。

  • BTC credit, that's the credit spread necessary to offset the risk for a given security. How much more credit spread? How much more yield do I need to be paid every year in order to offset that BTC risk that I'm thinking that exists. And the BTC credit hurdle, that is the BTC ARR necessary to create an investment grade instrument. How bullish would you have to be on Bitcoin for you to look at This credit instrument and say this should be investment grade. And our proxy for investment grade is a 100 basis point credit spread, just so you know.

    BTC 信用,這是抵銷特定證券風險所需的信用利差。信用利差還有多少?為了抵​​銷我認為存在的 BTC 風險,我每年需要獲得多少額外的利益。BTC 信用門檻,即創建投資等級工具所必需的 BTC ARR。您對比特幣有多看好才能看待這種信貸工具並說它應該是投資級的。我們對投資等級的衡量標準是 100 個基點的信用利差,您知道嗎。

  • Now, it turns out that that credit model is driven by some forecast assumptions. What do you expect the ARR to be? What do you expect the volatility to be over time? And so now I'm going to show you how this play out, in our capital structure. Let's go to the next slide.

    現在,事實證明該信貸模型是由一些預測假設所驅動的。您預計 ARR 是多少?您預計隨著時間的推移波動性會如何?現在我將向你們展示這在我們的資本結構中是如何發揮作用的。我們來看下一張投影片。

  • Here's BTC risk. Okay, what you can see is that If I actually ask the question, what is the risk of a 10x over collateralized instrument? I have $10 of Bitcoin for every dollar I owe. If the volatility is $70 right? You'll see it's 16 basis points. There's a 0.16% probability you'll be under-collateralized in a one year horizon. And of course, If you've only got $2 of Bitcoin for every $1 of debt, and you've got a $70 there's 26% BTC risk. So there's a zone, high volatility, low BTC rating, where you're looking like junk. And there's another zone where you're looking like investment rate. Now let's take this and apply this to our capital structure.

    這是 BTC 風險。好的,您可以看到,如果我真的問這個問題,那麼 10 倍抵押工具的風險是什麼?我每欠一美元,就有 10 美元的比特幣。如果波動率是 70 美元,對嗎?你會發現它是 16 個基點。在一年內,您出現抵押不足的機率為 0.16%。當然,如果每 1 美元的債務只有 2 美元的比特幣,而你有 70 美元,那麼 BTC 風險就是 26%。因此,存在一個區域,波動性高,BTC 評級低,你看起來就像垃圾。還有另一個區域,您可以關注投資率。現在讓我們將其應用到我們的資本結構中。

  • Can we change the slide? Okay. Sorry, this is a bit more elaborate BTC risk matrix. What this is showing you is how the risk builds up over time. And so if you have a five, a BTC rating of five and you've got a five-year bond, then that's, and you've got a 50 vol that says that you've got a 19% BTC risk, a 19% risk of being under collateralized at the end of the five years. And you can see over 10 years, you're looking at a 41% risk. So risk will increase with higher vol, risk will increase with higher duration, risk will increase with lower BTC rating.

    我們可以換幻燈片嗎?好的。抱歉,這是一個更複雜的 BTC 風險矩陣。這向您展示了風險如何隨著時間的推移而增加。因此,如果您的 BTC 評級為 5,並且您有五年期債券,那麼,您的波動率為 50,這意味著您的 BTC 風險為 19%,五年期末抵押不足的風險為 19%。您可以看到,10 年後的風險為 41%。因此,風險會隨著波動率的增加而增加,風險會隨著持續時間的增加而增加,風險會隨著 BTC 評級的降低而增加。

  • Let's go to the next slide. This is our existing capital structure. So, I'm showing you eight fixed income instruments. Let's assume that you're a skeptic. You actually think that Bitcoin is not going up. Bitcoin is going to trade 0% ARR for the next decade. So you're I, I'll say skeptic because I think if you thought Bitcoin was going to zero tomorrow, you're not going to buy any of these instruments. But hardcore skeptic thinks Bitcoin is not going to perform like the S&P index. So, if you actually calculate the BTC rating of these instruments, this is not hard. You can see the senior credit instruments is the 28 convert, it's 52 times over collateralized.

    我們來看下一張投影片。這是我們現有的資本結構。因此,我向你們展示八種固定收益工具。我們假設你是個懷疑論者。你居然覺得比特幣不漲了。未來十年,比特幣的交易 ARR 將為 0%。所以,我會說你是懷疑論者,因為我認為如果你認為比特幣明天會歸零,你就不會購買任何這些工具。但堅定的懷疑論者認為比特幣的表現不會像標準普爾指數那樣。因此,如果你實際計算這些工具的 BTC 評級,這並不難。您可以看到高級信貸工具的轉換率為 28%,其抵押率是 52 倍。

  • The next one is 13 times over collateralized. So now, what's the most junior fixed income instrument? It would be strike, which is 5.3 times over collateralized. So what you can see is, now, what is the BTC risk? Well, the duration of the converts is short, so the duration of the 28 node is 2.4. That means the risk is literally 0%. And the credit spread, the BTC credit you would have to have to, to offset the risk is rounded down from one basis point, it's 0. So there is zero likelihood, in a very small likelihood that we're not going to have, a billion dollars of Bitcoin collateral to pay this note off in 2.4 years. That makes intuitive sense, right? You have to have a 98% drawdown on the Bitcoin.

    下一個是抵押品的13倍。那現在,最初級的固定收益工具是什麼?這將是執行價格,是抵押品的 5.3 倍。那麼現在您可以看到的是,BTC 風險是什麼?嗯,皈依者的持續時間很短,所以 28 節點的持續時間是 2.4。這意味著風險實際上為 0%。而信用利差,也就是你必須擁有的 BTC 信用,為了抵銷風險,從一個基點向下捨入,即 0。因此,我們不可能,甚至極不可能,在 2.4 年內用 10 億美元的比特幣抵押品來償還這筆債務。這很有道理,對吧?你必須對比特幣進行 98% 的縮水。

  • Now the question is, what's the market credit spread? Well, the market thinks that that's a 500 credit spread instrument. So the pricing of that is 500 credit spread, market credit spread, the BTC credit rating is 0. That means the premium is 500 basis points. If we go to the 29 convert, what you can see is that the BTC credit calculation is 21 basis points for the skeptic. The market credit spread is 975 basis points. Massive spread premium. If you go to the 2030, you could take the 48 basis point BTC credit, compare it to the market credit spread of 1,075. So all down the line, what you see is for the converts.

    現在的問題是,市場信用利差是多少?嗯,市場認為這是一個 500 信用利差工具。因此其定價為 500 信用利差,市場信用利差,BTC 信用評級為 0。這意味著溢價為500個基點。如果我們轉到 29 個轉換,你會看到,對於懷疑論者來說,BTC 信用計算是 21 個基點。市場信用利差為975個基點。巨額價差溢價。如果你到 2030 年,你可以獲得 48 個基點的 BTC 信貸,並將其與 1,075 的市場信貸利差進行比較。所以從整體來看,你所看到的都是皈依者。

  • There are massive spread premiums. The market credit spreads are actually at the level of distressed debt. A junk bond index is like 380 basis points, 400 basis points. This is double junk, triple junk. It's like the market thinks that the company is going to fail tomorrow and it trades the credit like that. But in fact, even if you're a skeptic on Bitcoin, the BTC credit rating would be somewhere between 21 bits and 200 bits. Now you can see how you would rate the preferred. They have a longer duration, 10 years and 11 years. You would come up with a credit rating of 470 bits if you're a skeptic, for strife and 5,014 for strike of Eurosceptic. There's still a substantial spread premium.

    存在巨大的價差溢價。市場信用利差實際上處於不良債權的水平。垃圾債券指數例如是380個基點,400個基點。這是雙重垃圾,三重垃圾。就好像市場認為這家公司明天就會倒閉,然後就以這樣的方式進行信貸交易。但事實上,即使你對比特幣持懷疑態度,BTC 的信用評級也會在 21 位到 200 位之間。現在您可以看到如何評價首選。它們的期限較長,分別為10年和11年。如果您是懷疑論者,您的信用評級將為 470 位;如果您是衝突論者,您的信用評級將為 5,014 位。仍然存在相當大的價差溢價。

  • Now, if you're a credit investor, you might very well take the spread premium and think, well, if I can close the spread premium, I multiply that by the effective duration of the instrument, that's how much the instrument could trade up. There's an opportunity there if these things get rated properly. Now, let's look at the same capital structure if you're a Bitcoin maxi, a maximalist. When you, if you think Bitcoin is going up 30% a year, look at the BTC risk, it's 00000, 1%, 1%, 1%. and then the BTC credit spread or credit rating, it looks like one bits, two bits, eight bits, 14,13,13. So this has a profound impact on your view of the preferred stocks, right? All of a sudden, the preferred stocks are looking like they're trading at a 600% spread premium. Because they're not that risky for a Bitcoin believer. They're just trading in a massive credit spread.

    現在,如果你是一個信貸投資者,你很可能會接受價差溢價,並想,好吧,如果我可以關閉價差溢價,我將其乘以該工具的有效久期,這就是該工具可以交易的金額。如果這些事物得到適當的評級,那麼就有機會。現在,讓我們看看如果你是比特幣極端主義者,一個極端主義者,同樣的資本結構。如果你認為比特幣每年會上漲 30%,看看 BTC 的風險,它是 00000、1%、1%、1%。然後是BTC信用利差或信用評級,它看起來像一位,兩位,八位,14,13,13。那麼這對您對優先股的看法產生了深遠的影響,對嗎?突然之間,優先股的交易價差似乎溢價 600%。因為對比特幣信徒來說,它們並沒有那麼危險。他們只是在進行巨額信用利差交易。

  • Maybe even more so for the convertible bonds, right? Now you're seeing 1,000 basis point spread premiums over what you might expect to be the risk. So, this is an interesting opportunity for all sorts of investors, right? For equity investors, for fixed income investors, etc. Let's take this a little bit further. Next slide.

    對於可轉換債券來說可能更是如此,對嗎?現在,您看到的利差溢價比您預期的風險高出 1,000 個基點。那麼,對於各類投資人來說,這都是一個有趣的機會,對嗎?對於股票投資者、固定收益投資者等,讓我們進一步探討。下一張投影片。

  • This shows you BTC credit values across various classes of investors. So you see, if you're a skeptic, you might think that the right BTC credit rating for the convert coming to 2032 is 238 basis points. But if you think the Bitcoin is going to perform like the S&P index, it becomes 100 basis points. If you're an investor and you think it's like a big tech stock, it becomes 40 basis points. And if you're a maximalist, it becomes 14.

    這向您展示了不同類別投資者的 BTC 信用價值。所以你看,如果你是個懷疑論者,你可能會認為到 2032 年轉換的正確 BTC 信用評級是 238 個基點。但如果你認為比特幣的表現會像標準普爾指數那樣,那麼它就會變成 100 個基點。如果你是投資者,你認為它就像一檔大型科技股,它就會變成 40 個基點。如果你是極端主義者,那麼這個數字就會變成 14。

  • So you can see the credit risk and your view of the credit is very much a function of your view of Bitcoin, and the difference is with the preferred stocks are equally strong. I've got the market credit spread, and then on the right, I've got a fascinating metric. BTC credit hurdle. We're going to make this very simple, right? Which is how fast or how much does BTC have to go up in value each year over the next decade for this credit instrument to be deemed investment grade? Like what's it take for it to have a credit of less than 100 basis points a year to offset the risk? And what you can see is for the, for four of the six converts, Bitcoin could decrease and it would still be investment grade by our BTC credit standards.

    因此,您可以看到信用風險和您對信用的看法很大程度上取決於您對比特幣的看法,而不同之處在於優先股同樣強勁。我得到了市場信用利差,然後在右邊,我得到了一個令人著迷的指標。BTC 信用障礙。我們會把這件事變得非常簡單,對吧?未來十年,BTC 每年的價值必須上漲多少或上漲速度有多快,才能讓這種信貸工具被視為投資等級?例如,每年不到 100 個基點的信用額度需要什麼才能抵銷風險?您可以看到,對於六種轉換中的四種,比特幣可能會下跌,但按照我們的 BTC 信用標準,它仍然屬於投資等級。

  • And you can see that the 31, the 32, they would require just BTC to go up 10% a year and they should be investment grade. And you can see that if you believe Bitcoin's going up about 16% a year, then the preferreds are investment grade. And so it's a very interesting way to see the world when you acknowledge that BTC is collateral.

    你可以看到,31、32,他們只需要 BTC 每年上漲 10%,就應該達到投資等級。您可以看到,如果您相信比特幣每年上漲約 16%,那麼優先股就是投資等級的。因此,當你承認 BTC 是抵押品時,這是一個非常有趣的世界觀。

  • Let's go to the next slide. Here's a nice graph. What you can see that as you move from skeptic to trader, all of these credit calculations, they fall below the junk grade threshold. Junk is 380 basis points right now. That's the index. And of course, once you get to like investor class, they're all looking investor grade, right? And so, this is a view of BTC credit that you can use.

    我們來看下一張投影片。這是一張漂亮的圖表。您可以看到,當您從懷疑論者轉變為交易者時,所有這些信用計算都低於垃圾級閾值。垃圾債殖利率目前為 380 個基點。這就是索引。當然,一旦你喜歡上了投資階層,他們都會看起來像是投資人級別,對嗎?因此,這是您可以使用的 BTC 信用視圖。

  • Let's go to the next slide. Here we calculated BTC credit across volatility. So Bitcoin is traded with a volatility between 40% and 80% over the last five years.

    我們來看下一張投影片。這裡我們計算了波動率下的 BTC 信用。因此,過去五年比特幣的交易波動率在 40% 到 80% 之間。

  • Recently, it's been in the 40 to 60 range. And so the real question is at what point do these things not become investment grade if I'm a Bitcoin maximalist? Right, you could see like around 60%, 65 ball, at what point do they become junk? Well, they almost don't become junk, right? Next slide.

    最近,它一直在 40 到 60 的範圍內。所以真正的問題是,如果我是比特幣極端主義者,這些東西什麼時候不會變成投資等級的?對,你可以看到大約 60%,65 個球,在什麼時候它們會變成垃圾?嗯,它們幾乎不會變成垃圾,對吧?下一張投影片。

  • The story is very different for the skeptic, right? If you're a skeptic, they stop being investment grade, when Bitcoin is more than 40 volt, and You can see they all, cross junk around 50. So, what you expect for volatility matters and what you expect for BTC AR matters. But we think that that these credit models are elucidating, especially for Bitcoin, for the crypto community, and for the world's full of fixed income investors that like Bitcoin. And so if you're a Bitcoin maximalist or you're a Bitcoin enthusiast, but you run a fixed income fund, a preferred stock fund, a convertible bond fund or a hedge fund.

    對於懷疑論者來說,情況就完全不同了,對嗎?如果你是一個懷疑論者,當比特幣的價格超過 40 伏特時,它們就不再是投資級的了,你可以看到它們都在 50 左右穿過垃圾級。因此,您對波動性的預期很重要,您對 BTC AR 的預期也很重要。但我們認為這些信用模型具有啟發性,特別是對於比特幣、加密社群以及世界上喜歡比特幣的固定收益投資者。因此,如果您是比特幣極端主義者或比特幣愛好者,但您管理固定收益基金、優先股基金、可轉換債券基金或對沖基金。

  • This all of a sudden starts to really make a difference to your thinking. Shall we go to the next slide? Here's the traditional credit ratings, and we're not credit rated, so I mentioned.

    這突然開始真正改變你的想法。我們看下一張投影片好嗎?這是傳統的信用評級,而我們沒有信用評級,所以我有提到。

  • One of our interests is to get credit rating agencies to cover and to start to rate this credit, but you can see if you thought the BTC credit was 50 basis points to 100 basis points, you could make a reasonable argument that this ought to be an AA rated instrument or some of them could be triple A rated instruments. And of course, what you can see right now is that the market treats them as less than CCC, they're just distressed debt. And so this is a massive opportunity. Next.

    我們的興趣之一是讓信用評級機構覆蓋並開始評級這種信貸,但您可以看到,如果您認為 BTC 信貸是 50 個基點到 100 個基點,那麼您可以合理地論證說,這應該是 AA 級工具,或者其中一些可能是 AAA 級工具。當然,您現在可以看到,市場對它們的評價低於 CCC,它們只是不良債。這是一個巨大的機會。下一個。

  • There are two ways to see the world. I, if you think about credit ratings, most credit ratings are created for companies that borrowed money that they don't have. And so a company needs a billion dollars, they don't have the billion dollars. They borrow a billion dollars and they promise to pay it back by creating a future expectation of cash flows, and they say, we're going to generate $250 million of cash flow each year, EBITDA multiples 4. And so the credit rating agency is literally handicapping the future expectation of cash flows, and they're green lighting the lending of money to a borrower that doesn't have the money.

    有兩種看待世界的方式。我,如果你考慮信用評級,大多數信用評級都是為那些借入了他們沒有的錢的公司創建的。因此,一家公司需要 10 億美元,但他們沒有 10 億美元。他們藉了 10 億美元,並承諾透過創造未來現金流預期來償還,他們說,我們每年將產生 2.5 億美元的現金流,EBITDA 倍數為 4。因此,信用評級機構實際上是在限制未來現金流的預期,並且他們為向沒有錢的借款人提供貸款開了綠燈。

  • There's another way to see the world, which is a company on the Bitcoin standard. We already have the money. We have $50 billion of money we could liquidate tomorrow if we needed to, and we want to borrow $10 billion. So if I have $5 for every $1 I want to borrow, I've already got the money, so the credit risk analysis isn't really a question of evaluating whether or not you'll generate the money in the future. It's really just evaluating whether you're going to lose the money you already have.

    還有另外一種看世界的方式,那就是比特幣標準的公司。我們已經有錢了。如果有需要的話,我們有 500 億美元的資金,明天就可以變現,而且我們想藉 100 億美元。因此,如果我每借 1 美元就能得到 5 美元,那麼我已經得到這筆錢了,所以信用風險分析實際上並不是評估你將來是否會賺到這筆錢的問題。這實際上只是評估您是否會損失您已有的錢。

  • And so there's a perverse irony here, which is that all of the credit instruments that MSTR has issued are over collateralized by five to one or more. There isn't a single investment grade company in the United States that is overcollateralized by even three to one. That is to say, our company has better collateral and our collateral position is stronger than any borrower that is rated by any credit agency in the United States. In fact, super investment grade might have 2 times or 2times to 3 times collateral coverage. But there's definitely a disruption coming in this market.

    因此,這裡存在著一個反常的諷刺,即 MSTR 發行的所有信貸工具的抵押率都是五比一或更多。美國沒有一家投資級公司的超額抵押率達到三比一。也就是說,我們公司擁有比美國任何一家信用機構評級的借款人更好的抵押品,我們的抵押品狀況更強。事實上,超級投資等級可能有2倍或2倍到3倍的抵押品覆蓋率。但這個市場肯定會出現混亂。

  • There's a reason that that all the borrowers don't have collateral, it's because either their treasury asset is a short dated sovereign debt. And of course the yield on short dated sovereign debt is much less than the cost of capital to borrow, so it makes no sense to hold that as collateral, right? Or the treasury asset is Bitcoin, in which case it totally makes sense to hold as collateral. But unless you're on the Bitcoin standard, you won't have any collateral and you can't tap the credit markets being over collateralized. So, what we're really engaged in here is introducing the idea of BTC as collateral and collateral-backed lending.

    所有借款人沒有抵押品的原因是,他們的國庫資產要不是短期主權債務。當然,短期主權債務的收益率遠低於借貸資本成本,因此將其作為抵押品是沒有意義的,對嗎?或者國庫資產是比特幣,在這種情況下,將其作為抵押品持有是完全合理的。但除非你採用比特幣標準,否則你將沒有任何抵押品,而且你也無法利用過度抵押的信貸市場。因此,我們在這裡真正要做的是引入 BTC 作為抵押品和抵押支持貸款的想法。

  • The idea of loaning money to someone that has collateral makes all the sense of the world if you're loaning to an individual or you're loaning to an institution. But it, and it happens all the time. If you're a JPMorgan or Citi and someone's got a large stock portfolio, you would loan to them based on that collateral. But it almost never happens with publicly traded companies because publicly traded companies don't hold security portfolios and they don't hold them because of the, because of securities laws that prevent them from capitalizing on securities. So we have, we are driving a new way to see the world. What happens if there's a bunch of public companies that have a bunch of collateral that's appreciating faster than the cost of capital and they want to borrow against it.

    不管你是向個人還是機構貸款,將錢借給有抵押品的人的想法都是非常合理的。但這種情況總是會發生。如果您是摩根大通或花旗銀行,而某人擁有大量股票投資組合,您會根據該抵押品向他們提供貸款。但在上市公司中,這種情況幾乎從未發生過,因為上市公司不持有證券投資組合,而且由於證券法阻止他們利用證券進行資本化,所以他們不持有證券投資組合。所以,我們正在以一種新的方式看待世界。如果有一批上市公司擁有大量抵押品,而這些抵押品的升值速度快於資本成本,而他們又想以此為抵押借款,會發生什麼事呢?

  • In theory, it all ought to become investment grade if you're properly collateralized at the right ball and the right BTC rating. In practice, none of it is right now. This is a campaign of awareness that we'll be waging over time. Next slide.

    理論上,如果你在正確的時間和正確的 BTC 評級下獲得適當的抵押,那麼這一切都應該成為投資等級。但實際上,現在這一切都不正確。這是一場我們將長期開展的提高意識的活動。下一張投影片。

  • This is a great chart. You wonder about upside and downside. Well, when you buy our equity, you're getting 40% of the upside, 40% of the downside, 80% of the upside, 80% of the downside. It's just linear risk, upside downside. And we've drawn that line. We've also calculated the delta and the downside of all of our convertible bonds and of strike. And what you can see right here is a lot of the converts, the 31, 32, 28, and 38, they're high delta instruments. They're giving you 80% to 100% of the upside of the MSDR common.

    這是一張很棒的圖表。您想知道好處和壞處。好吧,當您購買我們的股票時,您將獲得 40% 的上漲空間,40% 的下跌空間,80% 的上漲空間,80% 的下跌空間。這只是線性風險,有上行也有下行。我們已經劃定了這條線。我們也計算了所有可轉換債券和行權債券的 delta 值和下跌空間。您可以在這裡看到很多轉換器,31、32、28 和 38,它們都是高 delta 工具。他們將為您提供 MSDR 普通股 80% 至 100% 的上漲空間。

  • But they're giving you less than that much downside. They're actually, they're, if you look at the 2030 convert to, for a simple example, you're getting 75% of the upside and 15,10, 15% of the downside, right? If you look at the 29, convert, this is a fascinating one. It's about 60 delta. You're getting 60% of the upside and it trades below par. No downside, right? Unless the company defaults, you're going to get paid par, so it's got negative downside. You're getting a guaranteed yield to maturity, and you're getting a 60 delta instrument.

    但他們帶給你的不利影響卻沒有那麼多。實際上,如果你看一下 2030 年的轉換,舉一個簡單的例子,你會得到 75% 的上行空間和 15、10、15% 的下行空間,對嗎?如果你看一下 29,轉換,這是一個令人著迷的。大約是 60 delta。您獲得了 60% 的上漲空間,但交易價格卻低於票面價值。沒什麼缺點吧?除非公司違約,否則您將獲得平價賠償,因此它具有負面下行風險。您將獲得保證到期收益率,並獲得 60 delta 工具。

  • If you look at Strike is trading below par. So below the liquidation preference below par, but with something like a 35 delta. So, if you're an equity investor, these are all very compelling. You can construct a portfolio that's a 100% upside, 50% downside, or 100% upside, 60% downside, or 100% upside, 25% downside. They're very interesting opportunities. Right now, the market is very inefficient, and the pricing of these is very inefficient, because the market doesn't recognize BTC credit. There are a number of reasons why I'll get to in a second, but I invite all of you, to think about, these instruments because they are opportunities.

    如果你看一下 Strike,你會發現它的交易價格低於票面價值。因此,低於票面價值的清算優先權,但有類似 35 的 delta 值。因此,如果您是股票投資者,這些都非常引人注目。您可以建立一個上漲 100%、下跌 50% 或上漲 100%、下跌 60% 或上漲 100%、下跌 25% 的投資組合。這些都是非常有趣的機會。目前,市場效率非常低下,這些的定價也非常低效,因為市場不承認 BTC 信用。我馬上就會談到很多原因,但我請大家思考這些工具,因為它們是機會。

  • Next. So key takeaways of fixed income.

    下一個。固定收益的關鍵要點如下。

  • The credit markets are grounded in traditional finance practices and metrics. They have not yet embraced BTC as collateral. They have not adopted real-time risk management practices for BTC. You can calculate BTC risk, BTC credit every second, as, the price of Bitcoin changes, as the BTC rating changes, as the volatility changes, you can update it every day as the duration of the credit instruments shrinks, right? So they're traditional credit ratings are issued by an analyst once a year, and they go stale, and they're opaque. And you can now create very transparent, cryptocre metrics. The market's not there yet, but it's, this is an opportunity. The reason the credit instruments trade with such wide credit spreads is because the markets are traditional.

    信貸市場以傳統的金融實踐和指標為基礎。他們尚未接受 BTC 作為抵押品。他們沒有針對 BTC 採用即時風險管理實務。你可以計算每秒的 BTC 風險、BTC 信用,隨著比特幣價格的變化、隨著 BTC 評級的變化、隨著波動性的變化,隨著信用工具期限的縮短,你可以每天更新它,對嗎?因此,傳統的信用評級每年由分析師發布一次,而且這些評級已經過時,而且不透明。現在您可以建立非常透明、加密的指標。市場尚未成熟,但這是一個機會。信用工具交易具有如此大的信用利差的原因在於市場是傳統的。

  • Most of our MST are convert investors, they're arbitragers. They're not Bitcoin investors, they're not equity investors, they're not bond investors. Basically, they're buying $100 million of the bond, shorting $80 million of the stock, and so they're not bringing $100 million of capital to the bond, they're bringing much less capital. That's one of the reasons I believe that the bonds are valued the way they are valued. If we have long Bitcoin investors, long MSTR investors, or long fixed income investors or credit investors start to enter this space, then I think we're going to see those credit spreads and those spread premiums compress.

    我們的 MST 大多是轉換投資者,他們是套利者。他們不是比特幣投資者,不是股票投資者,也不是債券投資者。基本上,他們購買了 1 億美元的債券,賣空了 8,000 萬美元的股票,因此他們並沒有為債券帶來 1 億美元的資本,而是帶來了少得多的資本。這就是我相信債券估值方式正確的原因之一。如果我們有長期比特幣投資者、長期 MSTR 投資者、長期固定收益投資者或信貸投資者開始進入這個領域,那麼我認為我們將看到這些信貸利差和利差溢價壓縮。

  • The OTC market is one of the culprits. It's very inefficient. It's constrained. There are 144A regulations. You, and you have to be a qualified institutional buyer, and that means most retail and a lot of investors, they just, they can't buy these or it's a pain to buy them. And so that impairs the bond value, that impairs the liquidity as well, and that creates much wider credit spreads.

    場外交易市場是罪魁禍首之一。效率很低。它受到限制。有144A法規。你,你必須是一個合格的機構買家,這意味著大多數散戶和很多投資者,他們只是,他們不能買這些,或者買它們很麻煩。這會損害債券價值,也會損害流動性,並造成信用利差擴大。

  • Now, I've laid out, these BTC models and so I believe that there are strong reasons to treat MSTR fixed income securities as investment grade, even though the market assigns credit spreads comparable to distressed debt. I think if you think about it, if people agree with me, if they agree with us and they, and they like Bitcoin, they'll start to view the, they'll start to view Bitcoin. Not as a speculative asset, but as a safe haven asset, and they'll start to view these instruments not as distressed debt, but as investment grade debt.

    現在,我已經闡述了這些 BTC 模型,因此我相信,有充分的理由將 MSTR 固定收益證券視為投資級,即使市場分配的信用利差與不良債務相當。我想如果你仔細想想,如果人們同意我的觀點,如果他們同意我們的觀點,並且他們喜歡比特幣,他們就會開始看待比特幣。他們不再將這些工具視為投機資產,而是將其視為避險資產,他們將開始將這些工具視為投資等級債務,而不是不良債務。

  • And so as the perceptions of BTC evolve from speculative asset to safe haven, which is massive discussion in the community all the time, it's reasonable to expect major credit rating agencies to begin rating the MSTR credit instruments, just like we expect banks to embrace Bitcoin, just like we expect insurance companies to embrace, just like the US government, the state, the local, the city governments are embracing Bitcoin. The credit rating industry is going to embrace Bitcoin. It's just a question of when, which we can't be sure of.

    因此,隨著 BTC 的認知從投機資產演變為避風港,這一直是社區中熱議的話題,我們有理由預期主要信用評級機構將開始對 MSTR 信用工具進行評級,就像我們預期銀行會接受比特幣一樣,就像我們預期保險公司會接受比特幣一樣,就像美國政府、州政府、地方政府和市政府正在接受比特幣一樣。信用評級產業將會接受比特幣。這只是一個時間問題,我們無法確定。

  • MSTR has the potential to issue investment grade fixed income securities, and we could emerge as the world's first investment grade Bitcoin treasury company. I think this is a great opportunity for us. I don't think it's appreciated, but what happens if we get an investment grade? What happens if we're able to get our credit instruments rated? There will be new pools of capital will be incorporated in new indexes, new classes of investors will be able to buy these things. That capital will flow into our securities, then into Bitcoin. It will be beneficial to BTC, to MSTR, to all of our fixed income and credit securities, and it'll be beneficial to all the investors. Why?

    MSTR 有潛力發行投資等級固定收益證券,我們可能成為世界上第一家投資等級比特幣財務公司。我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。我認為它不會升值,但如果我們獲得投資級評級會發生什麼?如果我們能夠對我們的信用工具進行評級,會發生什麼情況?將會有新的資本池被納入新的指數,新的投資者類別將能夠購買這些東西。這些資金將流入我們的證券,然後流入比特幣。這將有利於 BTC、MSTR、我們所有的固定收益和信貸證券,也有利於所有投資者。為什麼?

  • Because if you're an investor that appreciates the value of Bitcoin, then those securities worth selling will offer a superior yield and better performance. I think we showed you our convertible bonds are outperforming the other converts. They're outperforming the junk bonds, they're outperforming investment grade bonds. They're out, our preferreds are outperforming other preferreds. It's not complicated. If you pay higher yield or give higher performance, and if you can show people that you have comparable credit risk or lower credit risk, then you're going to create demand for capital, right?

    因為如果你是一位重視比特幣價值的投資者,那麼那些值得出售的證券將提供更高的收益和更好的表現。我想我們已經向你們展示了我們的可轉換債券的表現優於其他可轉換債券。它們的表現優於垃圾債券,也優於投資等級債券。他們出局了,我們的優先股表現優於其他優先股。這並不復雜。如果您支付更高的收益或提供更高的績效,並且如果您可以向人們展示您具有可比較的信用風險或更低的信用風險,那麼您將創造對資本的需求,對嗎?

  • So if you believe in Bitcoin, if you're bitcoin maxi, then those securities do offer superior yield and superior performance. And they do offer substantially lower credit risk in your point of view because you believe Bitcoin is good collateral. And so that's an, it's a very important message, it's an important opportunity for us, so. On the next slide.

    因此,如果您相信比特幣,如果您是比特幣最大投資者,那麼這些證券確實能提供卓越的收益和卓越的表現。而且從您的角度來看,它們確實提供了相當低的信用風險,因為您認為比特幣是良好的抵押品。所以,這是一個非常重要的訊息,對我們來說是一個重要的機會。在下一張投影片上。

  • I've taken up a lot of your time today. I appreciate it. And I appreciate all of your attention, and I'm pretty much nearing the end here, and I'll end with a call to action for all of you and for every interested, investor, potential investor, anyone that's interested in Bitcoin or MSTR or if you simply, are an interested investor in making the right decision, what would I suggest? I think our investors should contact Moody's, S&P, and Fitch.

    我今天佔據了你很多時間。我很感激。我非常感謝你們所有人的關注,我的演講也接近尾聲了,最後,我將呼籲所有人以及每一位感興趣的投資者、潛在投資者、任何對比特幣或 MSTR 感興趣的人採取行動,或者如果你只是一個有興趣做出正確決定的投資者,我會有什麼建議?我認為我們的投資者應該聯繫穆迪、標準普爾和惠譽。

  • If you own our equity, if you own our debt, if you own our preferreds, you should call these credit rating agencies or any other credit rating agency, talk to your representative, and request that they begin to cover and rate these instruments. Everybody will benefit. When I say everybody, I mean, the entire 400 million people that like crypto, everyone that owns Bitcoin, everyone that owns MSTR, all 55 million of our beneficiaries, everyone that owns the debt, the credit rating agencies will benefit, right? The fixed income investors will benefit, and the world will benefit, right? This is just a good thing for the world. It's inevitable. That the credit rating industry should embrace Bitcoin and embrace this kind of, this kind of lending.

    如果您擁有我們的股權、如果您擁有我們的債務、如果您擁有我們的優先股,您應該致電這些信用評級機構或任何其他信用評級機構,與您的代表交談,並要求他們開始涵蓋和評級這些工具。每個人都會受益。當我說每個人時,我的意思是,所有 4 億喜歡加密貨幣的人、所有擁有比特幣的人、所有擁有 MSTR 的人、所有 5500 萬受益人、所有擁有債務的人、信用評級機構都會受益,對嗎?固定收益投資者將受益,全世界也將受益,對嗎?這對世界來說是一件好事。這是不可避免的。信用評級行業應該接受比特幣並接受這種類型的借貸。

  • If you're an equity investor, I would suggest you consider, take a hard look at the MSTR convertible bonds and strike. A lot of it, a lot of investors just have dismissed them out of hand because they're like, well, I just don't buy that. Or maybe they couldn't because it's over the counter, or maybe It's new or different, or they're just busy.

    如果您是股票投資者,我建議您考慮、仔細研究 MSTR 可轉換債券並採取行動。很多投資人直接否定了這些觀點,因為他們覺得,我不相信這些觀點。或者也許他們不能,因為它是非處方的,或者因為它是新的或不同的,或者他們只是很忙。

  • But if you're going to buy equity with 100% of the upside and 100% of the downside, it makes sense that you should consider an instrument that might give you 60% of the upside, and 10% or 0% or 5% of the downside, right? There, if you deem yourself to be smart in portfolio construction, there's a lot of very interesting portfolios that can be constructed when the market miss prices risk and miss prices exposure, and I think the equity investors could benefit from this because in my opinion, the fixed income instruments are undervalued relative to the equity right now.

    但是,如果您要購買具有 100% 上漲空間和 100% 下跌空間的股票,那麼您應該考慮一種可能為您帶來 60% 上漲空間和 10% 或 0% 或 5% 下跌空間的工具,這是有道理的,對嗎?如果你認為自己在投資組合建構方面很聰明,那麼當市場錯過價格風險和錯過價格敞口時,可以建立許多非常有趣的投資組合,我認為股票投資者可以從中受益,因為在我看來,固定收益工具相對於股票而言目前被低估了。

  • If you're a fixed income investor, your preferred stock or a corporate bond investor or convert investor, I would say you should reconsider the, these instruments. Think about them again. Think about them and, along the lines of the BTC credit, the BTC risk we've laid out, build your own models. One of our objectives is over time, we will go ahead and publish our BTC model to the world, we'll open source it, we'll make these things available. But, the math here is not complicated. You could pretty much do a similar type of math that I've showed you using chat GPT in deep research mode. If you want to anybody with a Bloomberg can do it, any qualified quant can do it.

    如果您是固定收益投資者、優先股或公司債投資者或轉換投資者,我建議您應該重新考慮這些工具。再想想他們。思考一下,並根據我們所列出的 BTC 信用和 BTC 風險,建立您自己的模型。我們的目標之一是,隨著時間的推移,我們將繼續向全世界發布我們的 BTC 模型,我們將開源它,我們將使這些東西可用。但是,這裡的數學並不複雜。您幾乎可以進行與我使用聊天 GPT 在深度研究模式下向您展示的類似的數學運算。如果你願意,任何擁有彭博社的人都可以做到,任何合格的量化分析師都可以做到。

  • I would encourage you to do it and think about how you feel about these things. Because in my opinion, the actual credit spreads, represent a substantial premium, to the BTC credit rating, and I think the BTC credit ratings are a valid way to see the world and to see the risk. If you're a retail or non-QIB investor, while you're locked out of the convert market because of 144A restrictions, I think you should consider BMAX. BMAX is a very innovative ETF, that gives, that's constructed to provide or provide convert exposure, to investors that aren't able or unwilling to buy the underlying convert. So look at instruments like that. Because, I think the convertible bonds, especially the short duration convertible bonds, again, they're treated like distressed debt, but they've got very high deltas.

    我鼓勵你這樣做,並思考你對這些事情的感受。因為在我看來,實際信用利差相對於 BTC 信用評級而言具有相當大的溢價,而且我認為 BTC 信用評級是觀察世界和風險的有效方式。如果您是散戶或非合格投資委員會 (QIB) 投資者,並且由於 144A 限製而被排除在轉換市場之外,我認為您應該考慮 BMAX。BMAX 是一種非常創新的 ETF,它為那些無法或不願購買標的轉換產品的投資者提供轉換敞口。那麼看看這樣的儀器。因為,我認為可轉換債券,特別是短期可轉換債券,再次被視為不良債務,但它們的 delta 值非常高。

  • And then my ask of all investors, every MST or watcher, every Bitcoin is educate your peers on the opportunities presented by Bitcoin. Talk about Bitcoin, and then talk to them about BTC equity and BTC credit. They're sophisticated subjects as you can tell by this elaborate mini tutorial I've given you. Most people don't understand them.

    然後,我要求所有投資者、每個 MST 或觀察者、每個比特幣讓你的同行了解比特幣帶來的機會。講比特幣,然後跟他們講BTC權益、BTC信用。正如您從我提供的這個精心設計的迷你教程中看到的那樣,它們是複雜的主題。大多數人不理解他們。

  • But it's in your interest to educate other investors in the benefit of Bitcoin. It's in your interest to explain the nuances and the MSTR equity opportunity. And if you're holding our convertible bonds, if you're holding these preferreds, and you talk to someone that actually makes investment in fixed income, if you introduce them this opportunity, it's good for them. It's good for Bitcoin, it's good for the world, it's good for you, it's good for the common stock. There are no losers, so we're basically in education mode here.

    但讓其他投資者了解比特幣的好處符合您的利益。解釋細微差別和 MSTR 股權機會符合您的利益。如果您持有我們的可轉換債券,如果您持有這些優先股,並且您與實際投資固定收益的人交談,如果您向他們介紹這個機會,這對他們來說是件好事。這對比特幣有好處,對世界有好處,對你有好處,對普通股也有好處。沒有失敗者,所以我們基本上處於教育模式。

  • Let me, these are my opinions. I will note that you can form your own opinions, but I think there's plenty of reason to think that they're reasonable opinions. Shall we go to the last slide? I just want to end with our principles. The, we presented these October 30th, last year, and they're just as valid today, just remind everybody, our plan is buy and hold BTC indefinitely, prioritize the MSDR common stock.

    讓我來告訴你,這些都是我的觀點。我會注意到你可以形成自己的觀點,但我認為有足夠的理由認為它們是合理的觀點。我們看最後一張投影片好嗎?我只想以我們的原則來結束我的演講。我們在去年 10 月 30 日提出了這些,它們今天同樣有效,只是提醒大家,我們的計劃是無限期地買入並持有 BTC,優先考慮 MSDR 普通股。

  • Treat all investors with respect, consistency and transparency. Structure our company to outperform BTC. We're working to create more of, more leverage than BTC. Keep acquiring Bitcoin, generate positive BTC yield, do this as rapidly and responsibly as we can, subject to market dynamics, and they literally change every day that we will issue innovative securities, backed by BTC from time to time if we think there's a market need for them. We'll think hard about it before we do it.

    尊重、一致、透明地對待所有投資者。建立我們的公司結構以超越 BTC。我們正在努力創造比 BTC 更多的槓桿。繼續收購比特幣,產生正的 BTC 收益,盡可能快速、負責任地做到這一點,受市場動態影響,而且它們實際上每天都在變化,如果我們認為市場有需求,我們會不時發行由 BTC 支持的創新證券。在做這件事之前我們會認真考慮。

  • When we do things, we try to make sure they're not just to create it, but they're also structurally, responsible and durable and scalable. We're going to protect the balance sheet. We want a pristine balance sheet, and finally, we're going to promote global adoption of BTC as a Treasury reserve asset.

    當我們做某事時,我們會努力確保它們不僅僅是創造,而且它們在結構上也是負責任的、持久的和可擴展的。我們要保護資產負債表。我們想要一份完美的資產負債表,最後,我們將推動全球採用 BTC 作為財政儲備資產。

  • So with that, I want to thank you for your time. I really do appreciate it. I know this went long, but hopefully we gave you a lot of food for thought. For many of you, I'm looking forward to seeing you in Orlando next week. We're going to go into deeper, details, and I'm sure that there'll be a lot of questions, and we're going to answer a lot of questions, and we're going to have a lot of other Bitcoin treasury companies there.

    因此,我要感謝您抽出時間。我真的很感激。我知道這篇文章很長,但希望我們能提供你很多值得思考的內容。對於你們中的許多人,我期待下週在奧蘭多見到你們。我們將進行更深入、更詳細的討論,我相信會有很多問題,我們也會回答很多問題,我們也會有許多其他比特幣財務公司參與。

  • And we will continue with our strategy to educate the market and build a very healthy BTC ecosystem for everyone involved. So, thank you for your support and wishing you the best.

    我們將繼續我們的策略,教育市場並為每個參與者建立一個非常健康的 BTC 生態系統。因此,感謝您的支持並祝您一切順利。

  • Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations

    Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Michael, for the very insightful, session today. I know we went to, a lot over the original one hour mark, but we'll take three quick questions here and I'll begin with the first one for Andrew.

    邁克爾,謝謝你今天非常有見地的演講。我知道我們的時間已經遠遠超出了原定的一個小時,但我們將在這裡回答三個簡短的問題,我將從第一個問題開始,問安德魯。

  • So now that you have adopted the fair value accounting, how do you feel about the big swings in earnings as a result of the Bitcoin price volatility?

    那麼,既然您已經採用了公允價值會計,您對比特幣價格波動導致的收益大幅波動有何看法?

  • Andrew Kang - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Andrew Kang - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Sure. Thanks, Shirish. I guess, first off, the fair value accounting, even with the swings, is far more transparent for our investors and more accurately reflects the true value of our Bitcoin holdings versus the previous accounting rules. So certainly a win for us and other companies adopting Bitcoin. The old accounting was in many ways a barrier.

    當然。謝謝,Shirish。我想,首先,即使存在波動,公允價值會計對我們的投資者來說也更加透明,並且與以前的會計規則相比,更準確地反映了我們持有的比特幣的真實價值。因此,對於我們和其他採用比特幣的公司來說,這無疑是一種勝利。舊的會計制度在許多方面都是一個障礙。

  • I feel like, but with that hurdle gone, we should continue to see a steady stream of new corporate adopters of Bitcoin as a treasury asset. So the transparency, I think, is vitally important. So how do we feel about the swings? We, of course, like the positive swings more than the negative swings, but the reality is that Bitcoin is volatile. So I think, overall I think we're unfazed by the downswings and we believe over time. There will be more upswings. As I noted earlier, my 95K Bitcoin price example would reflect a $6.7 billion dollar gain.

    我覺得,但隨著這項障礙的消失,我們應該繼續看到源源不絕的新創企業採用比特幣作為財務資產。因此我認為透明度至關重要。那麼,我們對這種波動有何感受呢?當然,我們更喜歡正向波動而不是負向波動,但現實是比特幣是不穩定的。所以我認為,總的來說,我們不會對下滑趨勢感到困擾,而且我們相信隨著時間的推移,情況會有所改善。還會有更多的上漲。正如我之前提到的,我的 95K 比特幣價格範例將反映 67 億美元的收益。

  • Right now, Bitcoin is trading closer to 96.5%. so today we're the end of the quarter and that were the price for, if that were the price at the end of the quarter, our unrealized gain would be closer to something like $7.6 billion in gain in a single quarter. So I think in the long term, we all believe that corn price is going to go up and over that same long term, our reported gains will reflect that same trend in our overall earnings.

    目前,比特幣交易價格接近 96.5%。所以今天我們到了本季的末期,這就是價格,如果這是本季末的價格,那麼我們的未實現收益將接近單季 76 億美元的收益。因此我認為從長遠來看,我們都相信玉米價格將會上漲,並且在同一個長期內,我們報告的收益將反映出我們整體收益的相同趨勢。

  • Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations

    Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations

  • Great. Thanks, Andrew.

    偉大的。謝謝,安德魯。

  • The next one is for Michael. What are your thoughts on the recent MSTR playbook adoptions from other companies and how does the company plan to sustain its leading role?

    下一個是給麥可的。您對其他公司最近採用的 MSTR 策略有何看法?該公司計劃如何保持其領先地位?

  • Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board

    Michael Saylor - Executive Chairman of the Board

  • I think it's a very virtuous cycle, and it's a mutually beneficial competition. The more companies that adopt the Bitcoin standard, the more legitimizing it is. As more companies adopt the Bitcoin standard, they're out there educating equity investors, and that brings more equity capital in the market. As they start to issue credit instruments, they will educate fixed income investors and credit investors that brings new capital to the market. There's only 450 Bitcoin a day, and so as we're all buying that Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin is stabilized, supported, and then driven up.

    我認為這是一個非常良性的循環,也是一種互利的競爭。採用比特幣標準的公司越多,其合法性就越強。隨著越來越多的公司採用比特幣標準,他們開始教育股票投資者,這為市場帶來了更多的股權資本。當他們開始發行信貸工具時,他們將教育固定收益投資者和信貸投資者,為市場帶來新的資本。每天只有 450 個比特幣,因此當我們都在購買比特幣時,比特幣的價格就會穩定下來、得到支撐,然後上漲。

  • And 99.9% of the capital in the world is invested in the traditional fiat physical financial economy, just we're just that 1% or 0.1%, and if it grows from 0.1% to 1%, then the advantages of accelerating institutional adoption are profound and they offset any possible competition for capital. I also think, each capital market needs its own, set of BTC companies. In France, you need a local French company, you need a local company in Brazil, you need a local company in Japan. You need, yeah, the US market could, can, absorb dozens and dozens of companies because there are so many ways to differentiate. And every company is going to have its own approach.

    而全球99.9%的資本都投資於傳統的法定實體金融經濟,我們只是那1%或0.1%,如果它從0.1%增長到1%,那麼加速機構採用的優勢是巨大的,它們可以抵消任何可能的資本競爭。我也認為,每個資本市場都需要自己的一套 BTC 公司。在法國,你需要一家法國本地公司,在巴西,你需要一家本地公司,在日本,你需要一家本地公司。是的,美國市場可以吸收數十家公司,因為有很多方法可以實現差異化。每家公司都會有自己的方法。

  • And of course, a lot of investors, they say one, incident or one data point is just a random point and 22, is a line maybe, but 3 is a trend, right? And so when you get to the point when there's 3,456 companies a lot of investors will be more comfortable investing in the space because they're going to want to limit their exposure to anyone to a certain risk responsibility in their portfolio, but they're going to look for the next one. So I think the more companies that Join, the better it is for Bitcoin, the better it is for the companies in the space, and they're really going to accelerate the transition to the Bitcoin standard such that the companies that don't join will find themselves pressured to join over time.

    當然,很多投資人說,一個事件或一個數據點只是一個隨機點,22 可能是一條線,但 3 是一種趨勢,對嗎?因此,當公司數量達到 3,456 家時,許多投資者會更願意投資該領域,因為他們希望將投資組合中任何一家公司的投資限制在一定的風險責任範圍內,但他們會尋找下一家公司。因此,我認為加入的公司越多,對比特幣就越有利,對該領域的公司也越有利,而且它們將真正加速向比特幣標準的過渡,這樣,那些不加入的公司就會發現自己隨著時間的推移而面臨加入的壓力。

  • Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations

    Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations

  • Great. And the last one here for Phong, can you please update us on the pace of capital raises under the 4242 plan and how you're thinking about striking the right balance between equity capital and the fixed income capital going forward, and how do you think about the impact of dilution from another $21 billion equity?

    偉大的。最後一個問題是,對於 Phong,您能否向我們介紹一下 4242 計劃下的資本籌集速度,以及您如何考慮在未來實現股權資本和固定收益資本之間的適當平衡,以及您如何看待另外 210 億美元股權稀釋的影響?

  • Phong Le - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Phong Le - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, I'll start with that. I think that's the big question that we spent the last two hours addressing, right? And, yeah, we have conviction in our capital raises and adding to our capital plan, and we talked about that. But, we, you have to start with why did we lay out a BTC financial framework because the existing fiat financial framework doesn't work for BTC. Right, so dilution, our BTC KPIs say we look at things on a BTC yield, BTC per share, BTC gain basis. And I think you saw in Mike's presentation, every single capital raise we've done via our ATM if you look at our strategy.com website, has been accretive on a BTC yield, and a BTC per share on a BTC gain basis.

    好吧,我就從那裡開始。我認為這是我們過去兩個小時一直在解決的大問題,對嗎?是的,我們對我們的資本籌集和增加資本計劃充滿信心,我們也討論過這一點。但是,我們,你必須先考慮為什麼我們要製定一個BTC金融框架,因為現有的法定金融框架對BTC不起作用。是的,所以稀釋,我們的 BTC KPI 表明我們根據 BTC 收益率、每股 BTC、BTC 收益來看待事物。我想您在 Mike 的演示中也看到了,如果您查看我們的strategy.com網站,您會發現我們透過 ATM 進行的每一次融資都以 BTC 收益為基礎實現增值,並且以 BTC 收益為基礎每股增加 BTC。

  • And so. If we issue an ATM or equity at greater than one times mNAV, all other things being equal, that's secretive and it's not diluted to shareholders. That said, if you look at fixed income instruments, those are even more creative. You look at BTC yield, all else being equal, but we need that fixed income, market to become more mature and more efficient. As mNAV rises, the yield curve starts to flatten and issuing equity starts to look more and more like issuing fixed income. And fixed income instruments do require more BTC ARR to get positive income. But I think the ask and for all of us who are interested in Bitcoin is we need to develop and make that market for fixed income more efficient, and that's an opportunity for strategy and that's an opportunity for Bitcoin.

    所以。如果我們以高於 mNAV 一倍的價格發行 ATM 或股票,在其他條件相同的情況下,這是秘密的,並且不會稀釋股東的權益。話雖如此,如果你看看固定收益工具,你會發現它們更有創意。你看看 BTC 報酬率,其他條件相同,但我們需要固定收益市場變得更成熟、更有效率。隨著 mNAV 上升,殖利率曲線開始趨於平緩,發行股票越來越像發行固定收益。而固定收益工具確實需要更多的 BTC ARR 才能獲得正收入。但我認為,對於我們所有對比特幣感興趣的人來說,我們需要開發固定收益市場並使其更有效率,這是一個策略機會,也是比特幣的機會。

  • It's not lost on us that we've pushed the ATM more heavily than we've pushed fixed income, but the market for fixed income is actually larger than the market for equity. So it, it's incumbent upon us, Bitcoin folks, to make the fixed income market become more efficient. We're going to work on that. And as that happens, we're going to continue to issue equity, issue debt, and we're going to do it in a way that's acced to our shareholders. So, I think it'll, the more everyone processes the last couple of hours, they'll start to understand the BTC financial framework and they'll understand how we had a strategy think about what we're doing to raise capital.

    我們並沒有忘記,我們對 ATM 的推動力度比對固定收益的推動力度更大,但固定收益市場實際上比股票市場更大。因此,我們比特幣用戶有責任讓固定收益市場更有效率。我們將致力於此。當這種情況發生時,我們將繼續發行股票、發行債券,我們將以一種我們股東同意的方式進行。所以,我認為,每個人處理過去幾個小時的時間越多,他們就會開始了解 BTC 財務框架,他們就會明白我們如何制定策略來思考我們正在做什麼來籌集資金。

  • Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations

    Shirish Jajodia - Corporate Treasurer, Head of Investor Relations

  • Excellent. I think that brings us to the end of this webinar, so, any final remarks from Phong?

    出色的。我想這次網路研討會到此結束了,那麼,Phong 還有什麼要說的嗎?

  • Phong Le - President, Chief Financial Officer

    Phong Le - President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, I want to share with Mike and Andrew and Shirish, thanks for everybody for sitting through and understanding more about how we think about Bitcoin and think about strategy over the last two hours and 10 minutes. We appreciate all of your support. For those who will be in Orlando next week, very excited to meet and interact with all of you. Those who won't, we'll talk to you again, in 12 weeks or so.

    是的,我想與 Mike、Andrew 和 Shirish 分享,感謝大家在過去的兩個小時十分鐘裡坐下來,進一步了解我們如何看待比特幣和策略。我們感謝您的所有支持。對於下週將在奧蘭多的人們,我非常高興與你們所有人見面並互動。對於那些不願意的人,我們將在大約 12 週後再次與您交談。

  • Thanks and have a good evening.

    謝謝,祝您晚上愉快。