奧馳亞 (MO) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2018 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加奧馳亞集團 2018 年第一季度收益電話會議。

Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and question-and-answer session.

今天的電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括奧馳亞管理層的講話和問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services.

我現在想將電話轉給奧馳亞客戶服務部投資者關係副總裁 Bill Marshall 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jennifer.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。

We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO, to discuss Altria's 2018 first quarter business results.

今天早上我們和奧馳亞的 CEO Marty Barrington 在這裡。和奧馳亞首席財務官比利吉福德討論奧馳亞 2018 年第一季度的業務業績。

Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results, which is available on our website at altria.com, and through the Altria investor app.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份提供這些結果的新聞稿，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 altria.com 和奧馳亞投資者應用程序上獲得。

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2017.

在我們今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們會將結果與 2017 年同期進行比較。

Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results.

我們的評論包含前瞻性和警示性聲明以及對未來結果的預測。

Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

請查看今天收益發布結束時的前瞻性和警示性聲明部分，了解可能導致實際結果與預測存在重大差異的各種因素。

Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board.

未來的股息支付和股票回購仍由奧馳亞董事會酌情決定。

The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors.

股票回購的時機取決於市場條件和其他因素。

Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles.

奧馳亞根據美國公認會計原則報告其財務業績。

Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis.

今天的電話會議將包含報告和調整後的各種運營結果。

Adjusted results exclude special items that affect the comparability of reported results.

調整後的結果不包括影響報告結果可比性的特殊項目。

Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release.

這些非公認會計原則財務措施和對賬的描述包含在今天的收益發布中。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Marty.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給馬蒂。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

We're off to a fast start to the strong year of EPS growth, to which we've guided with adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 30.1% in the first quarter.

我們在每股收益增長強勁的一年中快速開局，我們在第一季度調整後的攤薄每股收益增長 30.1% 為指導。

Altria's leading tobacco businesses, diverse income streams and strong balance sheet provide us with numerous levers to deliver strong performance over the long term.

奧馳亞領先的煙草業務、多樣化的收入來源和強大的資產負債表為我們提供了許多槓桿來實現長期的強勁業績。

For example, in the first quarter, we benefited from a lower tax rate as a result of federal income tax reform, something for which we long advocated.

例如，在第一季度，由於聯邦所得稅改革，我們受益於較低的稅率，這是我們長期以來一直倡導的。

We also reported higher equity earnings from our investment in Anheuser-Busch InBev and higher adjusted operating company's income in the smokeless products segment.

我們還報告了我們對 Anheuser-Busch InBev 的投資的更高股權收益以及更高的調整後運營公司在無菸產品領域的收入。

We paid shareholders nearly $1.3 billion in dividends in the first quarter, announced an out-of-cycle quarterly dividend increase of 6.1% and repurchased $513 million in shares.

我們在第一季度向股東支付了近 13 億美元的股息，宣布非週期季度股息增長 6.1%，並回購了 5.13 億美元的股票。

We also continued our progress toward our aspiration of U.S. leadership in authorized noncombustible reduced risk products.

我們還繼續朝著美國在經授權的非易燃低風險產品方面的領導地位邁進。

As we've previously discussed, we are reinvesting about 1/3 of our tax reform benefit into strategic areas for long-term growth.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們正在將大約 1/3 的稅收改革收益再投資到戰略領域以實現長期增長。

These include innovative product development and launches, including IQOS, regulatory science, equity enhancements to our brands, retail fixtures and future retail concepts.

其中包括創新產品開發和發布，包括 IQOS、監管科學、我們品牌的權益增強、零售固定裝置和未來零售概念。

The timing of these investments will vary by operating segment, and some may be impacted by external factors, such as of the timing of an IQOS market order from the FDA.

這些投資的時間將因運營部門而異，有些可能會受到外部因素的影響，例如 FDA 下達 IQOS 市場訂單的時間。

As a result, we, once again, encourage investors to focus on full year performance against our strategies rather than a quarter-by-quarter segment result, which may be noisier than usual.

因此，我們再次鼓勵投資者關注我們戰略的全年業績，而不是可能比平時更嘈雜的季度業績。

We also continue to invest in our employees.

我們還繼續投資於我們的員工。

In the first quarter, we were pleased to share with our employees a portion of our tax reform benefit to recognize their ongoing contributions to our success.

在第一季度，我們很高興與員工分享我們的部分稅收改革福利，以表彰他們對我們成功的持續貢獻。

These one-time bonuses totaled about $22 million or $3,000 per nonexecutive full-time employee, and that expense flowed through our operating company's first quarter financials.

這些一次性獎金總計約為 2200 萬美元或每位非執行全職員工 3000 美元，這筆費用流向了我們運營公司第一季度的財務狀況。

So with that overview, let's discuss the operating segment results.

因此，通過該概述，讓我們討論運營部門的結果。

In the smokeable products segment, our strategy is to maximize income, while maintaining momentum on Marlboro and Black & Mild.

在可吸煙產品領域，我們的戰略是最大化收入，同時保持萬寶路和 Black & Mild 的勢頭。

This year, we're investing behind product expansions, packaging innovations and brand equity to stabilize Marlboro share and expand our company's overall share in the growing menthol and super-premium segments.

今年，我們在產品擴展、包裝創新和品牌資產方面進行投資，以穩定萬寶路的份額，並擴大我們公司在不斷增長的薄荷醇和超高端市場的整體份額。

For example, in the first quarter, PM USA expanded Marlboro Ice nationally.

例如，在第一季度，PM USA 在全國范圍內擴展了萬寶路冰。

Marlboro Ice offers a unique, crisp and cool-to-the-finish experience, which appeals to competitive adult menthol smokers.

萬寶路冰提供獨特、清脆和涼爽的體驗，吸引有競爭力的成年薄荷醇吸煙者。

Its innovative reseal pack is the first of its kind in the U.S., further differentiating the brand.

其創新的密封包裝是美國同類產品中的第一個，進一步區分了該品牌。

After only 8 weeks, Marlboro Ice is being sold in about 130,000 retail stores and has very high reorder rates.

僅 8 週後，Marlboro Ice 就在大約 130,000 家零售店銷售，並且重新訂購率非常高。

Marlboro Ice is supported with prominent point-of-sale materials and retail intercepts with competitive adult menthol smokers to further promote awareness and trial, we're encouraged by its performance thus far, which is meeting our expectations in helping to stabilize Marlboro share.

萬寶路冰得到了突出的銷售點材料和零售攔截的支持，與有競爭力的成年薄荷醇吸煙者進一步提高了意識和試驗，我們對其迄今為止的表現感到鼓舞，這符合我們在幫助穩定萬寶路份額方面的期望。

Another equity investment is a new Marlboro rewards program in Texas called Points West.

另一項股權投資是德克薩斯州一項名為 Points West 的新萬寶路獎勵計劃。

Through this program, adult smokers 21-plus earn points by scanning unique codes printed inside their Marlboro packs, which can then be redeemed for gear, coupons and charitable donations.

通過該計劃，21 歲以上的成年吸煙者通過掃描印在萬寶路包裝內的獨特代碼來賺取積分，然後可以兌換裝備、優惠券和慈善捐款。

After just 10 weeks in the market, over 100,000 adult smokers have engaged with Points West, which is generating news and excitement for the brand among adult smokers, increasing adult smoker digital reach and engagement and growing brand loyalty.

上市僅 10 週後，已有超過 100,000 名成年吸煙者與 Points West 合作，這為該品牌在成年吸煙者中帶來了新聞和興奮，增加了成年吸煙者的數字影響力和參與度，並提高了品牌忠誠度。

It's also worth highlighting that the engineering that enables these unique codes to be printed at PM USA scale and manufacturing speed is a major innovation.

還值得強調的是，使這些獨特代碼能夠以 PM USA 規模和製造速度打印的工程是一項重大創新。

As a result of these and other efforts, Marlboro retail share grew 1/10 of a share point sequentially to 43.2% versus the fourth quarter 2017 share.

由於這些和其他努力，萬寶路零售份額比 2017 年第四季度的份額環比增長 1/10 個百分點至 43.2%。

In the super-premium, tobacco and water segment, Nat's continues to perform very well in Colorado.

在超高檔、煙草和水領域，Nat's 在科羅拉多州繼續表現出色。

Nat Sherman is building awareness and trial of Nat's among adult smokers, and we're pleased with its market share performance.

Nat Sherman 正在提高成年吸煙者對 Nat's 的認識和試用，我們對其市場份額表現感到滿意。

Nat's is sourcing competitive share in this segment, and adult smokers are responding positively to the product, its advertising campaign and the packaging.

Nat's 正在這一細分市場中尋找有競爭力的份額，成年吸煙者對產品、廣告活動和包裝反應積極。

Based on these strong results in June, Nat Sherman will expand Nat's into 13 additional states across the western U.S.

基於 6 月份的這些強勁業績，Nat Sherman 將把 Nat's 擴展到美國西部的另外 13 個州。

In the smokeless products segment, USSTC delivered strong adjusted OCI growth of 27.3% in the first quarter as it lapped the 2017 voluntary product recall and grew pricing.

在無菸產品領域，USSTC 在第一季度實現了 27.3% 的強勁調整後 OCI 增長，因為它超過了 2017 年的自願產品召回並提高了定價。

Total smokeless segment retail share grew at 1/10 of a share point, led by Copenhagen, which grew 1.1 share points in the quarter to 34.3%.

在哥本哈根的帶動下，無菸細分市場的總零售份額增長了 1/10 個百分點，該季度增長了 1.1 個百分點，達到 34.3%。

USSTC also expended Copenhagen's Southern Blend into 13 states across the Western U.S. in the first quarter.

USSTC 還在第一季度將哥本哈根的 Southern Blend 擴展到美國西部的 13 個州。

Skoal retail share declined 1.2 share points in the quarter to 16.2% as USSTC focuses on growing its profitability, while investing behind blends and snus for adult smokers seeking noncombustible alternatives.

Skoal 零售份額在本季度下降 1.2 個百分點至 16.2%，因為 USSTC 專注於提高其盈利能力，同時為尋求非可燃替代品的成年吸煙者投資混合和鼻煙。

The company expanded Skoal spearmint tobacco blend pouches in the first quarter, and plans to update packaging on Skoal Snus in the second quarter to broaden its appeal among adult smokers and dual users.

該公司在第一季度擴大了 Skoal 留蘭香煙草混合袋，併計劃在第二季度更新 Skoal Snus 的包裝，以擴大其在成年吸煙者和雙重用戶中的吸引力。

In pursuit of Altria's innovation aspiration, we're investing behind the 3 most promising noncombustible product platforms with the potential to reduce harm, smokeless tobacco and oral nicotine products, e-vapor and heated tobacco.

為了追求奧馳亞的創新願望，我們正在投資於 3 個最有希望的具有減少危害潛力的不可燃產品平台、無菸煙草和口服尼古丁產品、電子蒸汽和加熱煙草。

USSTC is already the largest, most profitable noncombustible business in the world, and the company is pursuing FDA authorization to market products with reduced risk claims.

USSTC 已經是世界上最大、利潤最高的不燃材料企業，該公司正在尋求 FDA 的授權，以銷售具有降低風險聲明的產品。

And in March, the company took an important step in that regard by submitting a Modified-Risk Tobacco Product application for Copenhagen Snuff, and we're looking forward to engaging with the FDA on our application.

3 月，該公司在這方面邁出了重要一步，提交了一份針對哥本哈根鼻煙的改良風險煙草產品申請，我們期待與 FDA 就我們的申請進行合作。

In e-vapor, Nu Mark grew volume by approximately 30% in the quarter, driven by expanded distribution and benefiting from category growth.

在 e-vapor 方面，Nu Mark 在本季度的銷量增長了約 30%，這得益於擴大分銷和受益於類別增長。

Nu Mark also expended MarkTen Elite, a pod-based closed system product, to over 6,000 stores in the first quarter.

Nu Mark 還在第一季度將基於 pod 的封閉系統產品 MarkTen Elite 擴展到 6,000 多家商店。

In heated tobacco, PM USA continues to await the completion of FDA's review of PMI's IQOS PMTA application.

在加熱煙草方面，PM USA 繼續等待 FDA 完成對 PMI 的 IQOS PMTA 申請的審查。

PM USA's initial lead market plans are ready and will announce its location upon FDA authorization.

PM USA 的初步領先市場計劃已準備就緒，並將在 FDA 授權後宣布其位置。

At that point, PM USA will begin to build product inventory, while activating its marketing plan.

屆時，PM USA 將開始建立產品庫存，同時啟動其營銷計劃。

We use a range of tools to build adult smoker awareness, intrigue and demand in the lead market, while also preparing for additional lead markets.

我們使用一系列工具來建立成人吸煙者在鉛市場中的意識、興趣和需求，同時也為更多的鉛市場做準備。

Let's touch briefly on FDA news.

讓我們簡要介紹一下 FDA 的新聞。

The first quarter was an active one for the agency, which published 3 Advance Notices of Proposed Rulemaking, including one on a proposed nicotine standard for combustible cigarettes.

第一季度對該機構來說是一個活躍的季度，該機構發布了 3 份擬議規則制定的預先通知，其中包括一份關於可燃香煙尼古丁標準的提議。

Earlier this month, the agency announced a policy change regarding its treatment of substantial equivalence applications for provisional products.

本月早些時候，該機構宣布了一項關於處理臨時產品實質性等效申請的政策變更。

And you'll recall that we've been expecting these actions since last July when the FDA announced its new regulatory framework.

你會記得，自去年 7 月 FDA 宣布其新的監管框架以來，我們一直在期待這些行動。

As we said before, these are complex and nuanced issues, and any potential product standard will undergo a rigorous multi-year science and evidence-based process.

正如我們之前所說，這些都是複雜而微妙的問題，任何潛在的產品標準都將經過嚴格的多年科學和循證過程。

We're preparing our submissions on each of the ANPRMs, and we'll actively engage throughout this process.

我們正在準備對每個 ANPRM 的提交，我們將積極參與整個過程。

So once again, we're off to a good start.

所以再一次，我們有了一個好的開始。

Thus, we're reaffirming our guidance to deliver full year 2018 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.90 to $4.03 per share from a 2017 adjusted diluted EPS base of $3.39.

因此，我們重申我們的指導方針，即從 2017 年調整後的攤薄每股收益基數 3.39 美元實現 2018 年全年調整後的攤薄每股收益 3.90 美元至 4.03 美元。

This range represents a growth rate of 15% to 19% from 2017.

這個範圍代表了從 2017 年起 15% 到 19% 的增長率。

With that, I'll turn it over to Billy to provide more detail.

有了這個，我會把它交給比利來提供更多細節。

Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，Marty，大家早上好。

Let's start with a deeper look at the smokeable products segment.

讓我們從更深入地了解可吸煙產品部分開始。

Smokeable segment adjusted OCI decreased 2% in the quarter, primarily driven by cigarette volume declines, strategic business investments and higher resolution expenses, partially offset by higher pricing.

可吸煙部門調整後的 OCI 在本季度下降了 2%，主要是由於捲菸銷量下降、戰略業務投資和更高的分辨率費用，部分被更高的定價所抵消。

Smokeable adjusted OCI margins declined 1.2 percentage points to 49.7%.

可吸煙調整後的 OCI 利潤率下降 1.2 個百分點至 49.7%。

We estimate that the cigarette industry volume declined about 5.5% in the first quarter.

我們估計一季度捲菸行業銷量下降約 5.5%。

There are a number of factors at play here, most notably the impact of the California state excise tax increase, which went into effect in April of last year.

這裡有許多因素在起作用，最顯著的是加利福尼亞州消費稅上調的影響，該稅於去年 4 月生效。

We believe the effects of the California SET were further amplified this quarter due to pantry loading that inflated volume in the year-ago period.

我們認為，由於食品儲藏室裝載量在去年同期膨脹，本季度加州 SET 的影響進一步擴大。

We also continue to see adult tobacco consumers moving between tobacco categories, as evidenced by e-vapor category growth.

我們還繼續看到成年煙草消費者在煙草類別之間移動，電子蒸汽類別的增長就是明證。

And while we continue to be net positive about the strength of the adult tobacco consumer, recent gas price increases could be impacting purchase decisions in the short term.

儘管我們繼續對成年煙草消費者的實力持積極態度，但最近的天然氣價格上漲可能會在短期內影響購買決定。

We continue to closely monitor these and other factors, and have good plans in place for all volume scenarios.

我們將繼續密切關注這些因素和其他因素，並針對所有數量情景制定良好的計劃。

Our smokeable segment reported domestic cigarette volume declined 4.2%, primarily driven by the industry's rate of decline and retail share declines, partially offset by trade inventory movements.

我們的可抽部分報告國內捲煙銷量下降 4.2%，主要是由於行業下降率和零售份額下降，部分被貿易庫存變動抵消。

When adjusted for trade inventory movements, smokeable segment cigarette volume declined an estimated 7%.

經貿易庫存變動調整後，可抽部分捲菸量估計下降了 7%。

The cigar business continues to perform well, growing reported shipment volume 3% in the quarter.

雪茄業務繼續表現良好，本季度報告的出貨量增長了 3%。

In the smokeless products segment, USSTC grew adjusted OCI 27.3% in the first quarter as it lapped the 2017 voluntary recall and grew pricing.

在無菸產品領域，USSTC 第一季度調整後的 OCI 增長了 27.3%，因為它超過了 2017 年的自願召回並提高了定價。

Adjusted OCI margins expanded 7.8 percentage points to 69%.

調整後的 OCI 利潤率擴大 7.8 個百分點至 69%。

Smokeless industry volume declined an estimated 1% over the past 6 months, while USSTC's reported domestic shipment volume was essentially flat in the first quarter.

過去 6 個月，無菸行業銷量估計下降了 1%，而 USSTC 報告的第一季度國內出貨量基本持平。

We urge caution when comparing year-over-year volume estimates for the smokeless segment.

在比較無菸部分的同比銷量估計時，我們敦促謹慎行事。

First quarter 2017 volume was particularly noisy as the voluntary product recall involved removing significant volume from the marketplace, and then replenishing that volume with fresh product.

2017 年第一季度的銷量特別嘈雜，因為自願產品召回涉及從市場上移除大量產品，然後用新鮮產品補充該數量。

Turning to our alcohol assets.

轉向我們的酒類資產。

After a challenging 2017, Ste.

在充滿挑戰的 2017 年之後，Ste。

Michelle grew volume and revenue in the quarter, with wine shipment volume up 6.1%.

米歇爾在本季度的銷量和收入都有所增長，葡萄酒出貨量增長了 6.1%。

While adjusted OCI declined $4 million, substantially all of that was due to the onetime employee bonuses Marty discussed.

雖然調整後的 OCI 下降了 400 萬美元，但基本上所有這些都是由於 Marty 討論的一次性員工獎金。

In beer, adjusted equity earnings from our Anheuser-Busch InBev investment were $225 million in the first quarter, reflecting Altria's share of AB InBev's fourth quarter results.

在啤酒方面，第一季度我們對百威英博投資的調整後股權收益為 2.25 億美元，反映了奧馳亞在百威英博第四季度業績中的份額。

And of course, we continue to reward shareholders while returning significant cash to them through dividends and share repurchases.

當然，我們繼續獎勵股東，同時通過股息和股票回購向他們返還大量現金。

In March, we raised our dividends 6.1% to reflect final 2017 results, and we expect to maintain our dividend payout ratio target of approximately 80% of adjusted diluted EPS.

3 月份，我們將股息上調 6.1% 以反映 2017 年的最終業績，我們預計將維持調整後稀釋每股收益約 80% 的股息支付率目標。

We repurchased 8 million shares in the first quarter at an average share price of $64.33 for a total cost of $513 million.

我們在第一季度以 64.33 美元的平均股價回購了 800 萬股股票，總成本為 5.13 億美元。

This leaves approximately $500 million remaining in the current $1 billion repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of the year.

這使得當前 10 億美元的回購計劃中剩下大約 5 億美元，我們預計該計劃將在今年年底前完成。

With that, we'll wrap up, and Marty and I will be happy to take your questions.

這樣，我們就結束了，Marty 和我很樂意回答你的問題。

While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com.

在編譯電話時，我會提醒您，今天的收益發布和我們的非 GAAP 對賬可在 altria.com 上獲得。

We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items.

我們還發布了我們通常的季度指標，其中包括定價、庫存和其他內務管理項目。

Operator, do we have any questions?

接線員，我們有什麼問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) We will take questions from the investment community first.

（操作員說明）我們將首先回答投資界的問題。

Your first question will come from Chris Growe with Stifel.

您的第一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

So, Marty, I wanted to sort of ask you first off, if I could.

所以，馬蒂，如果可以的話，我想先問問你。

There's been some controversy around the rate of growth in vapor and e-cigarettes and the resulting weakness in cigarette volumes.

關於蒸汽煙和電子煙的增長率以及由此導致的捲煙銷量疲軟存在一些爭議。

And you said this in your remarks, and Billy did, I just wonder if you could give some perspective on the growth of the e-vapor category in total.

你在評論中說了這點，比利也說了，我只是想知道你是否可以對電子蒸汽類別的總體增長給出一些看法。

There's more than just measured channels, which is what we see.

我們看到的不僅僅是測量的通道。

And then how you're thinking maybe affecting cigarette volume, I don't know if you can give a number there, but just give us an idea of kind of what to expect for the year, if possible.

然後你怎麼想可能會影響捲菸量，我不知道你是否可以在那裡給出一個數字，但如果可能的話，請告訴我們今年的預期。

Yes.

是的。

So the vapor category has grown.

因此，蒸汽類別已經增長。

You'll remember, Chris, there was a period when it grew fast, when it first came into the market.

克里斯，你會記得，當它第一次進入市場時，有一段時間它發展迅速。

And then flat, and then now it's growing again.

然後是平的，然後現在又開始增長了。

This is consistent, I think, with what we've been saying all along, which is as the technologies get better, and particularly as adult smokers are able to learn about the products that we would expect migration over time, and that's why we're -- have the innovation aspiration we do.

我認為，這與我們一直在說的一致，即隨著技術的進步，特別是隨著成年吸煙者能夠了解我們期望隨著時間推移而遷移的產品，這就是為什麼我們'重新——擁有我們所做的創新願望。

So the numbers are hard to come by, as you know.

因此，如您所知，這些數字很難獲得。

We can look at the measured channels.

我們可以查看測量的通道。

It looks to us like the volume was up in '17 about 11% and, at least in measured channels, is moving much faster than that this year.

在我們看來，17 年的交易量增長了約 11%，至少在測量渠道中，增長速度比今年快得多。

It's very hard to get numbers around the other channels, e-commerce and some of the vape shops.

很難從其他渠道、電子商務和一些電子菸商店獲得數據。

Listen, in terms of volume, in the cigarette category, I think Billy covered it pretty well, which is there are a number of factors which affect cigarette industry volume.

聽著，就數量而言，在捲菸類別中，我認為比利很好地涵蓋了它，即有許多因素會影響捲菸行業的數量。

And it happens over time.

它會隨著時間的推移而發生。

Our view on this, we don't guide on volume, as you know, Chris, but we expect for that rate to moderate as we go through '18 because we're going to lap the California SET.

我們對此的看法，我們不指導音量，正如你所知，克里斯，但我們預計隨著 18 年的到來，這個速度會放緩，因為我們將在加利福尼亞州 SET 上跑一圈。

I'd also remind people that the rates tend to be a little bit lumpy.

我還要提醒人們，費率往往有點不穩定。

If I look at 2017, for example, by quarter, the rates were 3%, 4.5%, 3.5% and 4.5%, and then it smoothed out to about 4%, which is in the long-term range.

例如，如果我看一下 2017 年，按季度計算，利率分別為 3%、4.5%、3.5% 和 4.5%，然後逐漸平滑到 4% 左右，處於長期範圍內。

I remind everybody, I won't go through the mechanics because I know you all know this, but we have a very highly developed model to monitor this, which comprises both secular decline rate and price elasticity.

我提醒大家，我不會介紹機制，因為我知道你們都知道這一點，但我們有一個非常發達的模型來監控這一點，它包括長期下降率和價格彈性。

And we look at a number of factors in the secular decline rates, including the migration of smokers to other technologies.

我們研究了長期下降率的一些因素，包括吸煙者向其他技術的遷移。

So we're keeping an eye on that, but we have good plans for '18.

所以我們一直在關注這一點，但我們對 18 年有很好的計劃。

We've reaffirmed.

我們再次確認。

We have confidence in the plan.

我們對該計劃充滿信心。

As probably lastly just worth reminding ourselves that, over time, there have been other predictions about trend breaks in the cigarette volume decline that have not materialized.

最後可能值得提醒自己的是，隨著時間的推移，還有其他關於捲菸銷量下降趨勢突破的預測尚未實現。

I remember once in around '11 or '12 about vapor, and it was going to be an immediate disruptor.

我記得在 11 年或 12 年左右有一次關於蒸汽，它會立即成為破壞者。

It turned out not to be true.

事實證明這不是真的。

And then on the other side, we remember gas prices dropped and consumers did better, and we were somewhat predicting it was going to go up.

另一方面，我們記得汽油價格下降，消費者表現更好，我們有點預測它會上漲。

So we look at it over time, we monitor regularly and we'll be ready for whatever comes.

因此，我們會隨著時間的推移對其進行研究，定期進行監控，我們將為任何發生的事情做好準備。

Okay.

好的。

Just -- good color there.

只是——那裡的顏色很好。

I have just one follow-up question, which is in terms of your spending, we know you're spending some of these tax savings back behind the business.

我只有一個後續問題，即關於您的支出，我們知道您將這些節稅中的一部分用於支持業務。

And I'm not going to get into the quarters here, but has that spending started aggressively already?

而且我不打算進入這裡的季度，但是這種支出已經開始積極了嗎？

And we saw Marlboro sequentially improve a little bit.

我們看到萬寶路依次有所改善。

Can we attribute some of that to some of the incremental spending already?

我們可以將其中一些歸因於一些增量支出嗎？

Or is that still to come?

還是那還來得及？

No.

不。

Yes, we're spending.

是的，我們正在消費。

I mean, it's in our plans for '18.

我的意思是，這是我們 18 年的計劃。

And you're right, we're not going to guide by the quarters.

你是對的，我們不會按宿舍來指導。

But Chris, if you look at the national launch of Marlboro Ice, if you look at the expansion of MarkTen Elite, if you look at the filing of the MRTP application for Copenhagen Snuff and so forth, you can see that those investments are starting to flow through in those important long-term places.

但是 Chris，如果你看看 Marlboro Ice 在全國范圍內的推出，如果你看看 MarkTen Elite 的擴張，如果你看看哥本哈根鼻煙的 MRTP 申請等等，你可以看到這些投資開始流經那些重要的長期場所。

And I think we've got a year to go, but again, we're encouraged by Marlboro stabilizing sequentially from the last quarter.

而且我認為我們還有一年的時間，但萬寶路從上一季度開始連續穩定，這再次讓我們感到鼓舞。

Your next question is from Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Bonnie Herzog。

I have a couple of questions on IQOS.

我有幾個關於 IQOS 的問題。

Could you guys give us an update on your expectations for the PMTA timing?

你們能否告訴我們您對 PMTA 時間安排的最新期望？

And then I'd like to hear from you on what your -- what you think are the prospects for IQOS in the U.S. in light of the adoption curve that Philip Morris highlighted in Japan.

然後我想听聽你的意見，鑑於菲利普莫里斯在日本強調的採用曲線，你認為 IQOS 在美國的前景如何。

Do you guys foresee similar limitations along the adoption curve in the U.S.?

你們是否預見到美國採用曲線上的類似限制？

And I'd just like to hear from you what learnings you're taking from, again, what they're seeing in Japan right now.

我只是想听聽你從中學到了什麼，再說一遍，他們現在在日本看到了什麼。

Sure.

當然。

So I'm afraid we don't have much to offer you on timing because it remains at the FDA.

因此，恐怕我們在時間上沒有太多可以為您提供的信息，因為它仍在 FDA 手中。

And you know those time lines, Bonnie, and they continue to look at it.

你知道那些時間線，邦妮，他們會繼續關注它。

But we're hopeful we'll hear from them soon.

但我們希望很快能收到他們的來信。

We remain very excited about the prospects of bringing IQOS to the U.S. marketplace.

我們仍然對將 IQOS 帶入美國市場的前景感到非常興奮。

We think it's a very good product with a good sensory experience that has good satisfaction parallel to cigarettes.

我們認為這是一款非常好的產品，具有良好的感官體驗，與香煙一樣具有良好的滿意度。

There's no ash.

沒有灰燼。

There's no -- there's less odor, and it's a compelling harm reduction opportunity, as we know, from the application.

沒有 - 氣味更少，正如我們所知，這是一個引人注目的減少危害的機會，來自應用程序。

So I know there's been some discussion about its performance in Japan.

所以我知道有一些關於它在日本的表現的討論。

I know that you'll remember that when we've been asked to try to pick a market that we like, we've refrained from doing so.

我知道你會記得，當我們被要求嘗試選擇我們喜歡的市場時，我們沒有這樣做。

And I think that turns out to be right.

我認為事實證明這是正確的。

We're trying to gain the insights from each of the markets, apply them to what we think will happen in the U.S. market.

我們正試圖從每個市場中獲得洞察力，並將其應用於我們認為將在美國市場發生的事情。

It's also worth reminding people that we have a portfolio approach to harm reduction.

還值得提醒人們，我們有一個減少危害的組合方法。

So while we're very excited about IQOS, and we are going to be working very hard to convert adult smokers, we also have the largest smokeless business in the world, which is already profitable.

因此，雖然我們對 IQOS 感到非常興奮，並且我們將非常努力地轉變成年吸煙者，但我們也擁有世界上最大的無菸業務，這已經是盈利的。

And obviously, we're building a vapor business.

顯然，我們正在建立一個蒸汽業務。

So that's how we think about it in the context of our long-term strategy.

這就是我們在長期戰略背景下的思考方式。

And we don't get too excited about short-term information about IQOS.

而且我們對有關 IQOS 的短期信息並不太興奮。

We continue to believe in it, and we're really excited about bringing it to the U.S. market.

我們繼續相信它，我們真的很高興將它帶入美國市場。

Okay.

好的。

But then that does beg a follow-on question just in terms of, how do you guys envision IQOS interacting with the more developed e-cig markets than what you see outside of the U.S.?

但這確實引出了一個後續問題，即你們如何設想 IQOS 與比您在美國以外看到的更發達的電子煙市場互動？

Because, certainly, that's the case here.

因為，當然，這裡就是這種情況。

And then you touched on your full portfolio of reduced risk price.

然後你觸及了降低風險價格的全部投資組合。

So help us understand how you expect that to interact within your own portfolio.

因此，請幫助我們了解您希望如何在您自己的投資組合中進行互動。

Okay, well, that's what we're going to -- sure, good question.

好的，這就是我們要做的——當然，好問題。

That's what we're going to find out when we get to market.

這就是我們在進入市場時會發現的。

This is a product that has not been introduced to the U.S. market.

這是一款尚未進入美國市場的產品。

And I know you remember from our Investor Day presentation that our belief is that consumers, like in most categories, will segment along product lines, and we want to be there with the leading options.

我知道你還記得我們在投資者日的演講中，我們的信念是，與大多數類別一樣，消費者將按照產品線進行細分，我們希望擁有領先的選擇。

And so as the consumer segment, we will make investments behind the leading bets.

因此，作為消費者領域，我們將在領先的賭注背後進行投資。

And the honest answer is, no one will know how it will interact until we put it in the market and observe that.

誠實的答案是，在我們將其投放市場並觀察之前，沒有人會知道它會如何相互作用。

And that's one of the things we're going to learn as soon as we can get it there.

這是我們一旦能夠做到這一點就會學到的東西之一。

Okay.

好的。

One final question for me, if I may.

如果可以的話，給我最後一個問題。

Just on your smokeable operating income growth, which was negative, which is very unusual for you guys.

僅就您的可吸煙營業收入增長而言，這是負數，這對你們來說是非常不尋常的。

So just want to understand, how much of this was planned?

所以只是想了解，其中有多少是計劃好的？

I know you talked about stepping up spending, but I just really want to understand how we should think about this going forward.

我知道你談到了增加支出，但我真的很想了解我們應該如何看待這件事。

And then do you guys think that the stepped-up spending is resulting in the share stabilization you're looking for, for Marlboro?

那麼你們是否認為增加的支出會導致萬寶路的股價穩定？

Yes.

是的。

I think the investments are paying back.

我認為投資正在得到回報。

And this is why we have said for some time now, including when we guided early in the year, that long-term investors should look, I think, at our full year performance against our strategies, including these investments.

這就是為什麼我們現在已經說過一段時間了，包括在今年年初指導時，我認為長期投資者應該根據我們的戰略（包括這些投資）來看待我們的全年業績。

And by golly, we're guiding to a 15% to 19% EPS growth year, and we see 30% in the first quarter.

天哪，我們正在指導 15% 到 19% 的每股收益增長年，我們在第一季度看到 30%。

So I know it's tempting in some places to bore into the segment reporting for each quarter, but that's not how we think about it.

所以我知道在某些地方對每個季度的細分報告很感興趣，但這不是我們的想法。

And I think investors should think about it the same way, which is long-term growth and EPS.

我認為投資者應該以同樣的方式考慮它，即長期增長和每股收益。

And by the way, that gets converted into cash through the dividend payout ratio.

順便說一句，這通過股息支付率轉化為現金。

Your next question is from Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Judy Hong。

So Marty, I guess, I just wanted to go back to kind of the industry question and the interaction between combustibles and e-vapors.

所以馬蒂，我想，我只是想回到行業問題以及可燃物和電子蒸汽之間的相互作用。

And clearly, the stock price performance in the last couple of months, adjusted investors are really concerned about how much e-vapor category, particularly JUUL, is taking share away from your combustible product.

很明顯，過去幾個月的股價表現，調整後的投資者真的很關心電子蒸汽類別，尤其是 JUUL，正在從你的可燃產品中奪走多少份額。

So I'm just wondering if you have any response to that.

所以我只是想知道你是否對此有任何回應。

Or any data that you can share with us in terms of the interaction across those brands?

或者您可以在這些品牌之間的互動方面與我們分享的任何數據？

Well, there is interaction.

嗯，有互動。

And as you know -- and we've been predicting this as we bring innovative products to the marketplace.

如您所知，我們一直在預測這一點，因為我們將創新產品推向市場。

There is going to be interaction because if you will remember again from presentations we've made previously, we know about half of adult smokers are looking for products to migrate to, that offer them nicotine that they may want or need, but that offer them reduced terms.

將會有互動，因為如果您從我們之前所做的演示中再次記得，我們知道大約一半的成年吸煙者正在尋找可以遷移到的產品，這些產品為他們提供他們可能想要或需要的尼古丁，但也為他們提供減少條款。

So we would expect that over time.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們會期待這一點。

Now again, just another historical footnote.

再說一遍，這只是另一個歷史腳註。

We went back and we looked, and I have counted at least 5 brands in the e-vapor category that had very significant growth rates early, and then fell back to earth over time.

我們回去看了看，我統計了至少 5 個在電子菸類別中早期增長率非常顯著的品牌，然後隨著時間的推移又回到了現實。

And so this is not the first time that we have seen some excitement about a category growth.

因此，這不是我們第一次看到對類別增長的一些興奮。

And what we're learning is, is that you have to dimensionalize the size of the category.

我們正在學習的是，您必須對類別的大小進行維度化。

The category's about $90 billion retail in the United States.

該類別在美國的零售額約為 900 億美元。

We think vapor's probably about $3 billion of that in 2017.

我們認為 2017 年，Vapor 的價值可能約為 30 億美元。

So it remains a fraction of the overall category, and time will tell as adult smokers migrate.

所以它仍然是整個類別的一小部分，隨著成年吸煙者的遷移，時間會證明一切。

So again, we're the long-term people.

再說一次，我們是長期的人。

Our long-term strategy is to move them to innovative products, but I think it's worth remembering the history that there have been some rockets before that haven't sustained their trajectory.

我們的長期戰略是將它們轉移到創新產品上，但我認為值得記住的是，在此之前有一些火箭沒有保持它們的軌跡。

Okay.

好的。

And then, I guess, just when you kind of think about the FDA actions, so just in terms of it seems like there's a lot of concern around the youth access issue on e-vapor category.

然後，我想，就在您考慮 FDA 的行動時，就電子蒸汽類別的青少年准入問題而言，似乎存在很多擔憂。

And obviously, there's been some letters being sent to some of the retailers.

顯然，有一些信件被發送給一些零售商。

Do you think that, that is a positive development in the sense that, that actually allows some of those dynamics to kind of shift a little bit more in favor of the combustibles?

你認為，從某種意義上說，這是一個積極的發展嗎？實際上，這實際上允許其中一些動態向有利於可燃物的方向轉變？

Or does this sort of undermine your plan to kind of develop the e-vapor category, IQOS as well as your Nu Mark products?

或者這是否會破壞您開發電子蒸汽類別、IQOS 以及您的 Nu Mark 產品的計劃？

Well, I hope it doesn't, but I think it's important that everybody understand that this is a category that comes with responsibility.

好吧，我希望它不會，但我認為重要的是每個人都明白這是一個帶有責任的類別。

And if those of us who have been here for some time understand that the responsibility actions we take, particularly in the area of youth access, are most important.

如果我們這些已經在這里工作了一段時間的人明白，我們採取的負責任的行動，特別是在青年准入領域，是最重要的。

And some of the developments we've seen, I think, may reflect that.

我認為，我們所看到的一些發展可能反映了這一點。

Other companies have not understood that as they've entered the market.

其他公司在進入市場時並不理解這一點。

It's why we work so hard on this in terms of youth access prevention and our trade programs and the like.

這就是我們在防止青少年進入以及我們的貿易計劃等方面如此努力的原因。

There is nothing inconsistent in my view.

在我看來，沒有什麼不一致的。

We're trying to develop innovative products for adults, while taking steps to limit their reach to young people.

我們正在努力為成年人開發創新產品，同時採取措施限制他們對年輕人的影響。

And we have done it for decades, and that's how we're running our e-vapor business.

我們已經這樣做了幾十年，這就是我們經營電子蒸汽業務的方式。

Okay.

好的。

And then question for you, Billy.

然後問你問題，比利。

Just obviously, you've bought back about $500 million of shares in the first quarter.

很明顯，你在第一季度回購了大約 5 億美元的股票。

You've got another $500 million left in your authorization, but your balance sheet is still pretty strong.

您的授權中還有 5 億美元，但您的資產負債表仍然相當強勁。

You're generating cash, and it seems like the stock price reaction recently would suggest that you could actually be much more aggressive in terms of the buyback.

你正在產生現金，最近的股價反應似乎表明你實際上可以在回購方面更加激進。

So do you have any updated thoughts in terms of how you think about the buyback for the balance of the year?

那麼你對今年餘額回購的看法有什麼更新的想法嗎？

Yes, Judy.

是的，朱迪。

As we said before, look, we buy back shares based on market conditions.

正如我們之前所說，看，我們根據市場情況回購股票。

We're currently in a program, and we'll evaluate that as we progress through the year.

我們目前正在進行一項計劃，我們將在這一年的進展中對其進行評估。

Your next question is from Vivien Azer with Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Vivien Azer 和 Cowen。

So thank you for the color on kind of the puts and takes on cigarette industry volumes.

因此，感謝您對捲菸行業的看跌期權和交易量的顏色。

I was wondering, just from an industry perspective, not necessarily for your volumes, do you have a sense of what that number would've been if you exclude California?

我想知道，只是從行業的角度來看，不一定是你的銷量，如果你排除加利福尼亞，你是否知道這個數字會是多少？

I don't.

我不。

Okay, no problem.

好的沒問題。

Just in terms of the dynamics within the cigarette category, Marty, I think over the last few quarters, we've been discussing some of the dynamics that are happening at the lower end of the category.

就捲菸類別的動態而言，Marty，我認為在過去幾個季度中，我們一直在討論該類別低端發生的一些動態。

And it looks like part of your disclosure, deep discount does continue to gain share.

它看起來像你披露的一部分，大幅折扣確實繼續獲得份額。

So could you offer a little bit more color on the dynamics that you're seeing at the low end, please?

那麼，您能否為您在低端看到的動態提供更多色彩，好嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Maybe 2 things, Vivien from our end.

也許有兩件事，我們這邊的薇薇安。

One is sort of the -- how the consumer is doing, and then a movement within discount.

一種是消費者的行為方式，然後是折扣範圍內的運動。

So we continue to be net positive on the consumer, but we're watchful of a few things to be sure.

因此，我們繼續對消費者持積極態度，但我們要注意一些可以確定的事情。

I mean, on the positive side, we're at full employment.

我的意思是，從積極的方面來說，我們處於充分就業狀態。

And competence remains good, and the housing starts look okay to us.

能力仍然很好，房屋開工對我們來說看起來還不錯。

On the watch out list, I think, is you haven't seen the wage gains that you might expect in a full employment environment.

我認為，在觀察名單上，您是否還沒有看到在充分就業環境中您可能期望的工資增長。

And of course, they're not evenly distributed.

當然，它們分佈不均。

Gas prices are up about 10% year-over-year, as you and some others have noted, and we're also watching to make sure that there aren't other costs that are kind of eating away at disposable income.

正如您和其他一些人所指出的那樣，天然氣價格同比上漲約 10%，我們也在關注確保沒有其他成本會蠶食可支配收入。

But net-net, I think we remain positive.

但是net-net，我認為我們仍然是積極的。

There is no question though that there are manufacturers in the marketplace that are investing behind trying to get the lowest-priced cigarette brand in the store, and you see that in the deep discount.

毫無疑問，市場上有些製造商正在投資，試圖在商店裡買到價格最低的捲煙品牌，你可以在大幅折扣中看到這一點。

So discount's about 24% according to our estimate, it's up about 3/10, which is a tick-up the from where it had been, all of that basically from the deep discount end.

因此，根據我們的估計，折扣約為 24%，上漲了約 3/10，這與之前的水平相比有所上升，所有這些基本上都是從大幅折扣結束時開始的。

It looks to us like about half of that is switching out from manufacturers discount.

在我們看來，其中大約一半是從製造商折扣中退出的。

And then the other 3/10, give or take, it's not quite this precise, but roughly, Vivian, comes from the remaining 75% there.

然後是另外的 3/10，給予或接受，不是那麼精確，但大致來說，Vivian，來自剩餘的 75%。

So there are consumers to be sure who will go into a trade channel and ask for the cheapest brand in the store, and there are some companies that are offering it to them.

因此，有些消費者確定誰會進入貿易渠道並要求商店中最便宜的品牌，並且有些公司正在提供給他們。

So I think that probably explains our view of what's happening in the discount category.

所以我認為這可能解釋了我們對折扣類別中正在發生的事情的看法。

Obviously, it's not an area of focus for us as we're focused on premium, especially Marlboro.

顯然，這不是我們關注的領域，因為我們專注於優質產品，尤其是萬寶路。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

If you take a step back, Marty, and I really appreciate your comments that, yes, when gas prices were good, like clearly it was apparent with cigarette volumes.

如果你退後一步，馬蒂，我真的很感謝你的評論，是的，當汽油價格很好時，很明顯，捲菸量很明顯。

And if we kind of go back to 2015 and look over the last 3 years, have you noticed any evolution in price elasticities?

如果我們回到 2015 年並回顧過去 3 年，您是否注意到價格彈性的任何演變？

No.

不。

And it's something we look at all the time, and we have not seen any change there.

這是我們一直在關注的東西，我們沒有看到任何變化。

All right.

好的。

That's good news.

那是好消息。

Last question for me on FDA.

關於 FDA 的最後一個問題。

I'm not sure if you're going to comment on this, but I'm going to try to ask the question anyway.

我不確定你是否會對此發表評論，但無論如何我都會嘗試提出這個問題。

I'm curious whether you think the FDA appreciates that the pharmacokinetic profile can be very different within e-cigarettes.

我很好奇你是否認為 FDA 理解電子煙中的藥代動力學特徵可能非常不同。

Because as I think about the ANPRM around characterizing flavors, anything that is a combustibles cigarette, and certainty what you guys are aspiring to do on IQOS, sits into a much more tightly regulated flavor profile.

因為當我考慮圍繞表徵風味的 ANPRM 時，任何屬於可燃香煙的東西，以及你們在 IQOS 上渴望做的事情的確定性，都屬於受更嚴格監管的風味特徵。

And I wonder whether they -- whether they're kind of looking at that, if the pharmacokinetic profile matters, and whether that informs how they're thinking about characterizing flavors or whether you think they should be?

我想知道他們是否——他們是否會考慮這一點，藥代動力學特徵是否重要，以及這是否會告知他們如何考慮表徵風味，或者你是否認為它們應該如此？

Sure.

當然。

I can't speak for the FDA, but I'm confident that they will look at that, along with a host of things.

我不能代表 FDA 發言，但我相信他們會考慮這一點，以及許多事情。

Our experience with them has been is that they're very thorough, and I think that they will look at the product performances.

我們與他們的經驗是他們非常徹底，我認為他們會關注產品性能。

And I'm sure with the flavor at ANPRM, it's just going to come up.

而且我敢肯定，ANPRM 的味道會很快出現。

So while I can't speak for them, it seems sensible to me that they would do that.

所以雖然我不能代表他們說話，但對我來說他們會這樣做似乎是明智的。

Your next question is from Matt Grainger with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Matt Grainger。

I just have one question.

我只有一個問題。

The investment in -- that you made in the All Other segment this quarter was a bit below our expectations.

您本季度在所有其他部門所做的投資略低於我們的預期。

And I guess, I'm asking more in absolute rather than relative to my own expectations, but you highlighted expanding MarkTen Elite into 6,000 stories.

而且我想，我的要求更多的是絕對而不是相對於我自己的期望，但你強調將 MarkTen Elite 擴展到 6,000 個故事。

But given the magnitude of measured channel growth in the e-cigarette category, what are the constraints against more rapidly accelerating investment in the all other segment?

但考慮到電子菸類別的渠道增長幅度，在所有其他領域更快加速投資的製約因素是什麼？

Are there capacity constraints that are guiding that?

是否存在指導這一點的能力限制？

Or is it really just taking a more measured approach before you fully commit to one of the new technologies that you're supporting this year?

或者，在您完全致力於您今年支持的一項新技術之前，它真的只是採取了一種更加謹慎的方法嗎？

Yes, Matt.

是的，馬特。

There are really no constraints from a capacity standpoint.

從容量的角度來看，確實沒有任何限制。

Really, when you see that, you'll see fluctuations when you compare year-over-year, quarter-by-quarter.

確實，當您看到這一點時，當您逐季度比較時，您會看到波動。

There'll be puts and takes as we move through the year.

隨著我們度過這一年，將會有看跌期權。

And so we certainly are disciplined as we approach the e-vapor category, but no constraints that are limiting us.

因此，當我們接近電子蒸汽類別時，我們當然是有紀律的，但沒有限制我們的限制。

Your next question is from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

I guess, just continuing on with e-vapor and the topic du jour, I'm wondering what your analytics tell you about the demographic overlap between today's e-vapor consumer and really, I guess, the JUUL adopter specifically and your core smokeable segment consumer?

我想，繼續討論電子蒸汽和當前的話題，我想知道你的分析告訴你今天電子蒸汽消費者之間的人口統計重疊，我猜，特別是 JUUL 採用者和你的核心可吸煙部分消費者？

Because, I guess, I'm just trying to -- is there anything there that might make you more or less optimistic when you think about direct smokeable cannibalization risk on your brands from e-vapor, especially in the near term as JUUL growth remains robust and, for example, your MarkTen franchise grows?

因為，我想，我只是想 - 當您考慮到電子蒸汽對您的品牌造成的直接可吸食同類化風險時，是否有任何事情可能會讓您或多或少地感到樂觀，尤其是在短期內，因為 JUUL 的增長仍然存在強大的，例如，您的 MarkTen 特許經營權增長？

Maybe I'll take that up a level, Steve, so I don't -- be commenting about other people's products and competitive information, which we have, which I'm not particularly interested in sharing on a call.

史蒂夫，也許我會提高這個水平，所以我不會評論其他人的產品和競爭信息，我們擁有這些，我對在電話會議上分享這些信息並不特別感興趣。

But I think what we do know is that among adult smokers, it's pretty widely held that they are looking for alternatives, and that's true for both adult male and female smokers as well across the age cohorts.

但我認為我們所知道的是，在成年吸煙者中，人們普遍認為他們正在尋找替代品，成年男性和女性吸煙者以及整個年齡段的吸煙者都是如此。

I can say also that we take great care, when we're looking at the age cohorts, to make sure that we're focusing our efforts on adult smokers and so forth.

我還可以說，當我們查看年齡組時，我們非常小心，以確保我們將精力集中在成年吸煙者等身上。

But in terms of the interplay between one brand and our cigarette brand, I think that's a topic I'm not going to discuss on the call.

但就一個品牌與我們的捲煙品牌之間的相互作用而言，我認為這是我不打算在電話會議上討論的話題。

I hope you can appreciate that.

我希望你能欣賞這一點。

I do.

我願意。

I just thought I'd try.

我只是想我會嘗試。

Yes, I appreciate it.

是的，我很感激。

And I guess, separate tack on the topic.

我想，關於這個話題的單獨的大頭針。

As your vapor business grows and builds on some of the newer products that you're bringing to market, is there any update on how you're thinking about the profitability ramp and how you dimension where run rate margins might mature towards in that segment under the various growth scenarios that you're considering?

隨著您的蒸汽業務的增長並建立在您將推向市場的一些新產品的基礎上，您是否有任何關於您如何考慮盈利能力斜坡以及您如何確定運行率利潤率可能在該細分市場中走向成熟的更新您正在考慮的各種增長方案？

Yes.

是的。

I thought when we presented at Investor Day, and Jody took us through how he's thinking about it, what our aspiration for vapor is to be the leading e-vapor company in the United States that offers superior products to people who want them, and that we have cigarette margins -- cigarette-like margins at scale.

當我們在投資者日發表演講時，我想，喬迪向我們介紹了他的想法，我們對蒸汽的渴望是成為美國領先的電子蒸汽公司，為需要它們的人提供優質產品，並且我們有捲煙利潤——大規模的捲煙利潤。

And that continues to be our aspiration.

這仍然是我們的願望。

As the volume comes in, it helps us along that way.

隨著音量的增加，它會幫助我們沿著這條路走下去。

So we are bullish about the ability to build a business there that has cigarette-like margins.

因此，我們看好在那裡建立具有與香煙相似的利潤的業務的能力。

It's early right now, of course, and we're investing, and there's a lot of FDA spend.

當然，現在還為時過早，我們正在投資，FDA 有很多支出。

But over time, we're pretty bullish about that possibility.

但隨著時間的推移，我們非常看好這種可能性。

That's great.

那太棒了。

And if I could squeeze in one more.

如果我能再擠一個。

The various Advance Notices of Proposed Rulemaking that you've mentioned that the FDA had issued over the last several months, can you remind us of the expected time line from here of your responses and the likely news flow that you see associated with it?

您提到 FDA 在過去幾個月中發布的各種擬議規則制定的預先通知，您能否提醒我們從這裡開始您的回复的預期時間線以及您看到的與之相關的可能的新聞流？

Because just given what we saw in March, obviously, FDA-related headlines can certainly have an impact on how the market perceives risk around your stocks.

因為剛剛考慮到我們在 3 月份看到的情況，顯然，與 FDA 相關的頭條新聞肯定會對市場如何看待你的股票風險產生影響。

So just I think it's important to remain clear, right, about what may or may not lie ahead on that front.

所以我認為重要的是要保持清楚，正確，關於在這方面可能會或可能不會發生的事情。

Yes.

是的。

So if I remember this correctly, there are 90-day response deadlines to each of the ANPRMs.

因此，如果我沒記錯的話，每個 ANPRM 都有 90 天的回复期限。

And they all came out within about a week or so of each other.

他們都在大約一周左右的時間內出來。

I don't have the date in my head at the moment, but we can get you that.

我現在腦子裡沒有日期，但我們可以幫你搞定。

I think that we and others have asked for extensions.

我認為我們和其他人已經要求延期。

I mean, these are enormously complex topics they've asked on.

我的意思是，這些都是他們提出的非常複雜的話題。

And so they may be extended.

因此它們可能會被擴展。

And if that's of interest to you, Steve, I'll have Bill get you those dates.

如果你對此感興趣，史蒂夫，我會讓比爾給你提供這些日期。

I just don't have them top of the mind.

我只是沒有把它們放在首位。

But nominally 90 days, but there may be extensions for their replies.

但名義上是90天，但他們的回复可能會有延期。

And their replies will probably trigger some discussion of those as well.

他們的回复可能也會引發一些討論。

Your next question is from Owen Bennett with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Owen Bennett。

Just one question from me, I think, just following up on Vivian.

我想我只有一個問題，只是跟進 Vivian。

So you spoke about the deep discount competition, but could you comment on the promotional environment ex the deep discount brands, please?

所以你談到了深度折扣競爭，但是你能評論一下深度折扣品牌的促銷環境嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It continues, I would say, to stay competitive.

我想說，它繼續保持競爭力。

I don't think there's been any significant changes in the first quarter that I would call out from the typical back and forth on the promotional.

我認為第一季度沒有任何重大變化，我會從典型的促銷活動中來回呼籲。

Naturally, you have some folks that are expanding brands, and they put promotional devices in place, but I think it's anything materially different from the fourth quarter.

當然，有些人正在擴大品牌，他們採取了促銷手段，但我認為這與第四季度有本質上的不同。

Your next question is from Adam Spielman with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的亞當·斯皮爾曼。

Two questions, if I may.

兩個問題，如果可以的話。

The first one is on the discount segment within cigarettes.

第一個是香煙中的折扣部分。

How big does that have to get before you start getting concerned about it would be the first question.

在您開始關注它之前，它必須有多大將是第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

Well, we watch it carefully, obviously, given our focus on premium business.

好吧，顯然，鑑於我們專注於高端業務，我們會仔細觀察。

And you probably don't remember, Adam, there have been any periods in the past where the discount category grew such that we had to take action to compete more effectively there.

你可能不記得，亞當，過去曾有過折扣類別增長的時期，以至於我們不得不採取行動在那裡更有效地競爭。

I would say at 24% of the market, it's relatively stable, and you see us continuing to do a good job.

我想說，在 24% 的市場中，它相對穩定，你會看到我們繼續做得很好。

So we don't have a tripwire that I'll call out, but it's something that we monitor.

所以我們沒有我會調出的絆線，但這是我們監控的東西。

Can you just remind us sort of back in -- my memory was in -- was suddenly in the sort of mid -- sort of 2004 period.

你能不能提醒我們有點回到 - 我的記憶在 - 突然處於那種中期 - 2004年的時期。

Sort of beyond that, it wasn't -- what sort of percentage was it at that point?

除此之外，它不是——當時是多少百分比？

I know you're not going to say sort of a 28.2% is suddenly going to do something.

我知道你不會說 28.2% 的人會突然做某事。

But sort of ballpark, are we talking 30% of it or 28%?

但是有點大概，我們是在談論其中的 30% 還是 28%？

Are we talking 35%?

我們是在說 35% 嗎？

I'll give you a different metric that we monitor, which is price gap.

我會給你一個我們監控的不同指標，那就是價格差距。

So I think that's probably the easier way to think about it.

所以我認為這可能是更簡單的思考方式。

You remember this from Marlboro probably and others.

你可能記得萬寶路和其他人的這一點。

Net gap gets out of line, and then we know we have to be mindful of that.

淨差距超出了界限，然後我們知道我們必須注意這一點。

The gap's right now at about 30%.

差距現在約為 30%。

And it can probably expand a bit, but that's probably the better number to look at, Adam.

它可能會擴大一點，但這可能是更好的數字，亞當。

Fine.

美好的。

Okay, that's very good.

好的，這非常好。

And then secondly, we haven't talked about -- much about smokeless in the Q&A.

其次，我們還沒有在問答中討論過很多關於無菸的問題。

Obviously, volume's roughly flat.

顯然，成交量大致持平。

As we think about the next quarter or 2, we've got the recall.

當我們考慮下一季度或第二季度時，我們已經召回了。

But if you sort of strip out the effects of the recall, should we sort of be thinking that this category is flat now?

但如果你去掉召回的影響，我們是否應該認為這個類別現在是平的？

And the other thing I was really surprised about was your strong margin.

我真正感到驚訝的另一件事是您的強勁利潤率。

And again, whether in the medium term you see significant upside from here or whether where it's going to be a much more gradual thing on the OCI margin?

再說一次，從中期來看，你是否看到了從這裡開始的顯著上漲，或者 OCI 邊際是否會變得更加漸進？

Yes.

是的。

Well, thanks for that because it allows me to observe this hard to grow margin from 69%.

好吧，謝謝你，因為它讓我觀察到利潤率從 69% 難以增長。

I mean, it's a very high margin category, isn't it?

我的意思是，這是一個利潤率很高的類別，不是嗎？

That's flatter a bit because of the recall.

由於召回，這有點平淡。

Obviously, we have a lot of costs in the first quarter of '17.

顯然，我們在 17 年第一季度有很多成本。

So the delta between this quarter and that, Adam, is flattened a bit by that.

所以這個季度和那個季度之間的三角洲，亞當，被拉平了一點。

But it's a high-margin business, there's no denying it.

但這是一項高利潤的業務，這是不可否認的。

I think it's fair to observe that the category has been flattish in terms of its volume growth.

我認為公平地觀察到該類別在數量增長方面一直持平。

It used to go about 5%, call it, and it's clearly slowed down a little bit to be flattish or down a little bit on the 6-month moving.

它曾經大約上漲 5%，稱之為，並且在 6 個月的移動中明顯放緩了一點點持平或下降了一點點。

There's probably a couple of reasons for that.

這可能有幾個原因。

One is something we've talked about earlier, which is there are consumers that are trying other products.

一個是我們之前談到的，即有消費者正在嘗試其他產品。

And secondly, the retail pricing is up more in '17 than it has been over '15 and '16.

其次，17 年的零售價格上漲幅度超過了 15 年和 16 年。

And I think that's had an effect on category growth, which is something we're also looking at.

我認為這對類別增長產生了影響，這也是我們正在關注的問題。

Okay.

好的。

And there was partly a tax rise, if I remember, in Pennsylvania?

如果我記得的話，賓夕法尼亞州有部分增稅？

Yes.

是的。

And MST also had an excise tax increase in California last year, too.

去年，MST 在加州也增加了消費稅。

Your next question is from Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Nik Modi。

So just 2 questions from my end.

所以我最後只有兩個問題。

First, on just general Marlboro trends, outside of California, can you guys like pinpoint the areas?

首先，關於加州以外的萬寶路的總體趨勢，你們能確定這些地區嗎？

I'm just curious like how broad-based it is versus, is it isolated in certain regions, markets where you could be a lot more tactical?

我只是好奇它的基礎有多廣泛，它是否在某些地區孤立，你可以更具戰術性的市場？

That's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

And then the second question is just maybe an update on MarkTen Bold, if you can give us any thoughts on kind of early consumer response.

然後第二個問題可能只是關於 MarkTen Bold 的更新，如果您能就消費者的早期反應向我們提供任何想法。

Sure.

當然。

Billy, you want to talk about Marlboro?

比利，你想談談萬寶路嗎？

Yes, I'll talk about Marlboro.

是的，我會談談萬寶路。

From a standpoint of being broad-based, it is broad-based, Nik.

從基礎廣泛的角度來看，它是基礎廣泛的，Nik。

From a standpoint of fine-tuning, we are always in the process of fine-tuning.

從微調的角度來看，我們總是在微調的過程中。

That's something that the PM USA team does very well.

這是美國總理團隊做得很好的事情。

And they'll outlook and adjust state-by-state to fine-tune the effectiveness of our spending related to Marlboro.

他們將逐個州進行展望和調整，以微調我們與萬寶路相關的支出的有效性。

MarkTen Bold, I think, is off to a good start, Nik.

我認為，MarkTen Bold 是一個良好的開端，Nik。

It's a very good product, particularly as it appeals, I think, to adult smokers who are looking for a similar experience there.

這是一個非常好的產品，特別是因為它吸引了我認為在那裡尋找類似體驗的成年吸煙者。

And so it's early days with MarkTen Bold, but the early feedback is very good.

因此，MarkTen Bold 還處於早期階段，但早期的反饋非常好。

And I guess, what I'm really trying to get at, maybe I should've been more explicit.

而且我想，我真正想表達的是什麼，也許我應該更明確一點。

The -- obviously, MarkTen Bold is your first foray with the salt technology.

- 顯然，MarkTen Bold 是您首次嘗試使用鹽技術。

And obviously, there's certain other products in the marketplace that have done very well with that technology.

顯然，市場上的某些其他產品在該技術上表現非常出色。

So I'm just trying to understand, how much of this is about the brand versus the actual experience?

所以我只是想了解，這有多少是關於品牌與實際體驗的？

And can you do more stuff at MarkTen Bold to get consumers to try it?

你能在 MarkTen Bold 做更多的事情來吸引消費者嘗試嗎？

Because obviously, with the salt technology, the consumer experience is a lot better.

因為很明顯，有了鹽技術，消費者的體驗會好很多。

Yes, it's true, and I think it's also format.

是的，這是真的，而且我認為這也是格式。

So I think in the e-vapor category, the product bundle is both the format, the satisfaction and the flavor.

所以我認為在電子菸類別中，產品包既是形式，也是滿足感和味道。

And so we have very good flavor there, and I think it has good satisfaction.

所以我們那裡的味道很好，我認為它很滿意。

But it is a cig-alike product, and that is a segment that is under some pressure in e-vapor.

但它是一種類似香煙的產品，這是一個在電子蒸汽中承受一定壓力的細分市場。

We've got, obviously, in MarkTen Elite, a pod-based product, which is a different formulation.

顯然，我們在 MarkTen Elite 中得到了一種基於 pod 的產品，這是一種不同的配方。

And what we're trying to do there is to match consumer expectations through different devices.

我們正在嘗試做的是通過不同的設備來滿足消費者的期望。

You may know, for example, there that the pod has about twice as much liquid as another competitive brand, and we're trying to meet the consumer where they want to be through different techniques.

例如，您可能知道，豆莢的液體量大約是另一個競爭品牌的兩倍，我們正試圖通過不同的技術滿足消費者的需求。

So I think we're going to see this for a while, Nik, as both formats, flavors and satisfaction are worked on in the category.

所以我認為我們會在一段時間內看到這一點，Nik，因為格式、口味和滿意度都在該類別中進行了研究。

And remember, we also have the complexity of the FDA rules that allow you to launch some products, but not others, given when they were in the marketplace.

請記住，我們還具有 FDA 規則的複雜性，允許您在市場上發布某些產品，但不能推出其他產品。

So it's that -- that's the bundle of things that we're working through.

所以就是這樣 - 這就是我們正在解決的問題。

But when I look at what Nu Mark has done, we have a very good offering in cig-alike.

但是，當我查看 Nu Mark 所做的事情時，我們在 cig-alike 方面提供了非常好的產品。

I think we have a very good offering now in a pod-based product.

我認為我們現在在基於 pod 的產品中提供了非常好的產品。

And through our interest in Avail, we're learning a lot about the open segment.

通過我們對 Avail 的興趣，我們學到了很多關於開放部分的知識。

So I think that's the right strategy.

所以我認為這是正確的策略。

Your next question is from Michael Lavery with Piper Jaffray.

您的下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 和 Piper Jaffray。

You mentioned on IQOS, obviously, assuming that it's approved for marketing authorization, that you would have a lead market, and then other lead markets.

顯然，您在 IQOS 上提到，假設它已獲得營銷授權，您將擁有一個領先市場，然後是其他領先市場。

And so it sounds a little bit like a measured approach.

所以這聽起來有點像一種衡量的方法。

How do you think about the range of scenarios?

您如何看待場景的範圍？

Is it something you could accelerate if the response is clear?

如果響應明確，您可以加速嗎？

Are there capacity limitations?

有容量限制嗎？

What are some of the things that frame how you think about the trajectory that would presumably build towards an ultimate national expansion?

您如何看待可能朝著最終國家擴張的軌跡，有哪些事情構成了您的想法？

Yes, good question.

是的，好問題。

We've built at least 3 scenarios that depend on the consumer reaction to it.

我們已經構建了至少 3 個取決於消費者對它的反應的場景。

We have contingency plans in place to scale at faster and faster scenarios.

我們制定了應急計劃，以在越來越快的情況下進行擴展。

Capacity, we do not expect to be an issue.

容量，我們預計不會成為問題。

We've got some things to learn, as you know, about pricing and the brand and how we go to market.

如您所知，我們需要學習一些關於定價和品牌以及我們如何進入市場的知識。

I mean, I don't want people to underestimate.

我的意思是，我不希望人們低估。

This is all new with IQOS as PMI has experienced.

正如 PMI 所經歷的，這對 IQOS 來說是全新的。

What we've tried to do is to have a program in place that allows us to learn quickly, make the adjustments we need and to scale fast depending upon its performance, which we continue to be optimistic about.

我們試圖做的是製定一個程序，使我們能夠快速學習，做出我們需要的調整，並根據其性能快速擴展，我們繼續對此持樂觀態度。

No, that's helpful.

不，這很有幫助。

And just back to gas prices as well for a minute.

再回到汽油價格一分鐘。

It was, depending on where exactly you've benchmarked it, about a 2 to even 4 or so point lift a couple of years ago.

幾年前，根據您對其進行基準測試的確切位置，它是大約 2 到 4 點左右的提升。

In terms of magnitude, obviously, the prices now are higher than in the last few years, but do you have any ability to quantify how much that may be driving some of the category pressure?

就數量而言，顯然，現在的價格比過去幾年要高，但你有能力量化這可能在多大程度上推動了一些類別的壓力嗎？

I think it's one of many factors.

我認為這是眾多因素之一。

It's not the same dramatic effect as when they dropped.

這與它們掉落時的戲劇效果不同。

I think that's fair to say.

我認為這樣說是公平的。

But because so much of the volume moves through convenience and gas, Michael, if it's up, I saw a figure, I think, $0.25 maybe year-over-year.

但是由於大量的交易量是通過便利和加油來轉移的，邁克爾，如果它上升了，我認為，我看到了一個數字，可能是每年 0.25 美元。

It's not insignificant.

這不是微不足道的。

And so we're keeping a close eye on it.

所以我們正在密切關注它。

It's not the same magnitude, but I think it's one of many factors that has affected the volume probably in our view.

它的幅度不一樣，但我認為在我們看來，這可能是影響交易量的眾多因素之一。

Okay.

好的。

And on Marlboro Ice, obviously, 130,000 stores is a tremendous reach.

顯然，在萬寶路冰上，130,000 家商店是一個巨大的覆蓋範圍。

I think you call on maybe twice that or something close to that.

我認為你可能會調用兩倍或接近這個值。

Is that something you expect to have further expansion potential?

您期望這具有進一步的擴展潛力嗎？

Or is it in the right places already or maybe somewhere in between?

還是它已經在正確的地方，或者可能介於兩者之間？

Well, we're about 8 weeks out.

好吧，我們還有大約 8 週的時間。

So we try to get to the right places fast.

所以我們試圖快速到達正確的地方。

And then, obviously, when brands continue to succeed, we'll get them in a wider distribution.

然後，很明顯，當品牌繼續取得成功時，我們會讓它們在更廣泛的分佈中得到推廣。

But we -- the way we do this is we set target distributions and dates, and we're right on track with Marlboro Ice.

但是我們——我們這樣做的方式是我們設定目標分佈和日期，我們正走在萬寶路冰的軌道上。

And given its success, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see it expand over time.

鑑於它的成功，看到它隨著時間的推移而擴展，我一點也不感到驚訝。

Okay.

好的。

One just last one.

一個只是最後一個。

On the MRTP for Snuff.

關於鼻煙的 MRTP。

Obviously, some of the FDA's own targeted timing is not strict.

顯然，一些FDA自己的針對性時機並不嚴格。

But just to understand when their theoretical clock starts, has that application been accepted already?

但只是為了了解他們的理論時鐘何時開始，該申請是否已被接受？

Because I think that's when they sort of begin the countdown.

因為我認為那是他們開始倒計時的時候。

I know you've submitted it, but is it sort of finally -- officially formally accepted by them?

我知道你已經提交了，但它最終——被他們正式接受了嗎？

No.

不。

You're getting pretty good at this about knowing all those technical stuff, Michael.

邁克爾，你在了解所有這些技術知識方面已經做得很好了。

It's been filed, but it has not been technically accepted, which takes some time for them to go through the application and dot the Is and cross the Ts.

它已提交，但尚未在技術上被接受，這需要一些時間才能讓他們通過申請並打點 Is 和跨越 Ts。

So I guess, in FDA's view, the clock has not yet started to run.

所以我猜，在 FDA 看來，時鐘還沒有開始運行。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question will come from Gil Alexandre with Darphil Associates.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題將來自 Darphil Associates 的 Gil Alexandre。

Could you give us an estimate of where excise tax increase at the state level may be coming from this year?

您能否給我們估計一下今年州級消費稅的增加可能來自哪裡？

And I have a second question.

我還有第二個問題。

Sure.

當然。

We've had 2 that have been passed this year.

今年我們已經通過了2個。

There's been one in Oklahoma, which was $1 a pack, and there was a second in Kentucky, which was $0.50 a pack.

俄克拉荷馬州有一個，每包 1 美元，肯塔基州有第二個，每包 0.50 美元。

We had proposals for about 26 of them.

我們對其中的 26 個提出了建議。

Some of the state legislators are now starting to wrap up, but we continue to see those as risks.

一些州立法者現在開始總結，但我們繼續將其視為風險。

But so far this year, anyway, those 2 I called out.

但今年到目前為止，無論如何，我叫出來的那兩個。

And could you give us an indication, now that you have passed the California excise tax, what the volume declines could be over next 12 months?

既然您已經通過了加州消費稅，您能否給我們一個指示，那麼未來 12 個月的銷量下降可能是多少？

I know...

我知道...

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

I just -- let me go back to where we started that maybe that you were not on the call early.

我只是 - 讓我回到我們開始的地方，也許你沒有提前打電話。

We don't guide on volume.

我們不指導音量。

What our observation was is that we would expect for the volume decline rate to moderate as we lap California going into the second quarter.

我們的觀察是，我們預計隨著加州進入第二季度，銷量下降率將會放緩。

You do have a follow-up question from Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.

您確實有來自富國銀行的 Bonnie Herzog 的後續問題。

I just wanted to get back in.

我只是想重新進去。

I had another question on Marlboro.

我還有一個關於萬寶路的問題。

I was hoping you could give us a sense of how the brand is performing so far in April now that you guys have lapped the California tax increase.

我希望你們可以讓我們了解該品牌在 4 月份迄今為止的表現，因為你們已經完成了加州的增稅。

Are you continuing to see sequential monthly improvements in share?

您是否繼續看到份額的連續每月增長？

I guess, it won't surprise you, Bonnie, to know that I'm not going to comment on the second quarter until we get to the second quarter.

我想，邦妮，知道在我們進入第二季度之前我不會對第二季度發表評論，這不會讓你感到驚訝。

You'll have to forgive me.

你必須原諒我。

All right.

好的。

One final, if I may.

一場決賽，如果可以的話。

I wanted to talk to you guys or clarify something with acquisitions.

我想和你們談談或者澄清一些關於收購的事情。

You've suggested in the past that you guys are open to exploring them, whether it's businesses or technology.

你過去曾建議你們對探索它們持開放態度，無論是商業還是技術。

So I guess, I'm asking if this is still true, especially given the strength of your balance sheet.

所以我想，我在問這是否仍然正確，特別是考慮到你的資產負債表的實力。

Yes, that remains true.

是的，這仍然是正確的。

I think Billy's description at the Investor Day and the CAGNY about our willingness to grow our business, both organically in the right scenario and non-organically, continues to be true.

我認為比利在投資者日和 CAGNY 上關於我們願意在正確的情況下有機地和非有機地發展我們的業務的描述仍然是正確的。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Bill Marshall for closing comments.

在這個時候，我想把會議轉給比爾馬歇爾先生結束評論。

Thank you all for joining our call this morning.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。

If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.

如果您有任何後續問題，請通過投資者關係聯繫我們。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。