奧馳亞 (MO) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2017 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加奧馳亞集團 2017 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。今天的電話會議計劃持續約 1 小時，包括奧馳亞管理層的講話和問答環節。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bill Marshall, Vice President, Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將電話轉給奧馳亞客戶服務部投資者關係副總裁 Bill Marshall 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Bridget. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. We're here this morning with Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO; and Billy Gifford, Altria's CFO, to discuss Altria's 2017 fourth quarter and full year business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing these results, which is available on our website at altria.com and through the Altria Investor app.

謝謝你，布里奇特。早上好，感謝您加入我們。今天早上我們和奧馳亞的 CEO Marty Barrington 在這裡。和奧馳亞首席財務官比利吉福德討論奧馳亞 2017 年第四季度和全年業務業績。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份提供這些結果的新聞稿，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 altria.com 和奧馳亞投資者應用程序上獲得。

During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2016. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statement section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's board. The timing of share repurchases depends on marketplace conditions and other factors.

在我們今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們會將結果與 2016 年同期進行比較。我們的評論包含前瞻性和警示性聲明以及對未來結果的預測。請查看今天收益發布結束時的前瞻性和警示性聲明部分，了解可能導致實際結果與預測存在重大差異的各種因素。未來的股息支付和股票回購仍由奧馳亞董事會酌情決定。股票回購的時機取決於市場條件和其他因素。

Altria reports its financial results in accordance with the U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect the comparability of reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release.

奧馳亞根據美國公認會計原則報告其財務業績。今天的電話會議將包含報告和調整後的各種運營結果。調整後的結果不包括影響報告結果可比性的特殊項目。這些非公認會計原則財務措施和對賬的描述包含在今天的收益發布中。

Now I'll turn the call over to Marty.

現在我將把電話轉給 Marty。

Thanks, Bill. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining the call. Altria had another strong year in 2017. We delivered outstanding financial performance and continued to focus on rewarding our shareholders. In 2017, we grew adjusted diluted earnings per share 11.9%, built on the success of our core tobacco businesses and complemented by the effects of federal income tax reform. We paid out more than $4.8 billion in dividends and repurchased more than $2.9 billion in Altria's shares. We are extremely proud of our company's long-term track record of creating value for our shareholders. From the end of 2012 through 2017, we paid shareholders $21 billion in dividends and repurchased more than $6 billion in shares.

謝謝，比爾。大家早上好，感謝您加入電話會議。奧馳亞在 2017 年又是強勁的一年。我們實現了出色的財務業績，並繼續專注於回報我們的股東。 2017 年，我們的調整後稀釋每股收益增長了 11.9%，這得益於我們核心煙草業務的成功以及聯邦所得稅改革的影響。我們支付了超過 48 億美元的股息，並回購了超過 29 億美元的奧馳亞股票。我們為公司在為股東創造價值方面的長期記錄感到非常自豪。從 2012 年底到 2017 年，我們向股東支付了 210 億美元的股息，並回購了超過 60 億美元的股票。

Altria's total shareholder return of 9.4% in 2017 follows 4 consecutive years of 20-plus percent returns. Over this 5-year period, our total shareholder return of 181% outperformed both the S&P 500 and the S&P Food, Beverage and Tobacco Index by more than 70%.

奧馳亞 2017 年的股東總回報率為 9.4%，此前連續 4 年的回報率為 20% 以上。在這 5 年期間，我們 181% 的股東總回報率比標準普爾 500 指數和標準普爾食品、飲料和煙草指數高出 70% 以上。

Let's look first at our full year results, and then we'll say a word about the recently enacted tax reform legislation before turning to 2018 guidance.

讓我們先看看我們的全年業績，然後在轉向 2018 年指導之前，我們會談談最近頒布的稅制改革立法。

In 2017, we continued to maximize the core while innovating for the future. Our core tobacco businesses delivered strong income growth and expanded their already-high margins despite a year that presented some unique challenges in each business. We also, in 2017, accomplished several important strategic initiatives for future success, including making significant progress toward our goal of becoming the U.S. leader in authorized noncombustible reduced-risk products. We advanced our lead market commercialization plans for IQOS, prepared a modified risk tobacco product application for Copenhagen Snuff and invested in new innovative products at Nu Mark.

2017年，我們在創新未來的同時，繼續做大核心。我們的核心煙草業務實現了強勁的收入增長，並擴大了本已很高的利潤率，儘管這一年對每個業務都提出了一些獨特的挑戰。 2017 年，我們還為未來的成功完成了幾項重要的戰略舉措，包括在實現成為美國授權非易燃低風險產品領導者的目標方面取得重大進展。我們推進了 IQOS 的領先市場商業化計劃，為哥本哈根鼻煙準備了修改後的風險煙草產品申請，並在 Nu Mark 投資了新的創新產品。

Our smokeable segment strategy continues to be to maximize income while maintaining momentum on Marlboro and Black & Mild over the long term. In 2017, the smokeable products segment delivered strong adjusted operating company's income growth of 7% and expanded adjusted OCI margins by 3 percentage points to 51.2%.

我們的可吸煙細分市場戰略繼續是最大化收入，同時保持萬寶路和 Black & Mild 的長期發展勢頭。 2017 年，可吸煙產品部門實現了強勁的調整後運營公司收入增長 7%，調整後的 OCI 利潤率擴大了 3 個百分點至 51.2%。

Across our brand metrics, Marlboro continues to have category-leading equity, strong demographics, and of course, it's highly profitable. As for retail share, it remains the leading brand by far, but Marlboro declined by 0.4 share point to 43.3% for the year. The decline is explained by the challenging dynamics we've been describing, specifically the effects of California's $2 per pack SET increase and elevated competitive activity, which continued into the fourth quarter.

在我們的品牌指標中，萬寶路繼續擁有領先的資產、強大的人口統計數據，當然，它的利潤也很高。至於零售份額，它仍然是迄今為止的領先品牌，但萬寶路下降了 0.4 個百分點至 43.3%。下降的原因是我們一直在描述的具有挑戰性的動態，特別是加州每包 2 美元的 SET 增加和競爭活動增加的影響，這種情況一直持續到第四季度。

We look at share performance over the long term. And from 2011 through 2017, Marlboro's share grew by an average of about 0.1 of a point annually. But there's no question that 2017 presented a share challenge to PM USA, which it is addressing by reallocating marketing resources and investing in product and packaging innovation. On the products side, Marlboro Black Label and Marlboro Ice are the latest innovations from Marlboro. In October, PM USA announced the expansion of Marlboro Black Label in California and Washington state. And this week, PM USA began its national expansion of Marlboro Ice. Marlboro Ice enhances Marlboro's menthol offerings and comes in an innovative reseal pack.

我們著眼於長期的股票表現。從 2011 年到 2017 年，萬寶路的份額平均每年增長約 0.1 個百分點。但毫無疑問，2017 年給 PM USA 帶來了份額挑戰，它正在通過重新分配營銷資源和投資於產品和包裝創新來解決這個問題。在產品方面，萬寶路黑標和萬寶路冰是萬寶路的最新創新。 10 月，PM USA 宣佈在加利福尼亞州和華盛頓州擴展萬寶路黑標。本週，美國 PM 開始在全國范圍內擴展萬寶路冰。萬寶路冰增強了萬寶路的薄荷醇產品，並採用創新的密封包裝。

In November, PM USA expanded Benson & Hedges menthol into select stores in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, DC to complement Marlboro's menthol portfolio. We expect these and other actions planned for 2018 to help stabilize Marlboro share and enhance PM USA's premium offerings for the long term.

11 月，PM USA 將 Benson & Hedges 薄荷醇擴展到馬里蘭州、弗吉尼亞州和華盛頓特區的精選商店，以補充萬寶路的薄荷醇產品組合。我們預計 2018 年計劃的這些和其他行動將有助於穩定萬寶路的份額並長期提升 PM USA 的優質產品。

From a portfolio perspective, with the Nat Sherman acquisition in 2017, Altria now has a presence in the super-premium cigarette segment. Since the acquisition, we successfully integrated Nat Sherman, expanded its cigarette production capabilities, and aligned them with our strong distribution system. In the fourth quarter, the Nat Sherman team began a lead market test in Colorado for its reposition brand, Nat's. We're very pleased with the early results and excited about the opportunity to compete more effectively in the super-premium segment.

從投資組合的角度來看，隨著 2017 年對 Nat Sherman 的收購，奧馳亞現在在超高檔捲菸領域佔有一席之地。自收購以來，我們成功整合了 Nat Sherman，擴大了其捲菸生產能力，並將其與我們強大的分銷系統相結合。在第四季度，Nat Sherman 團隊開始在科羅拉多州對其重新定位品牌 Nat's 進行領先市場測試。我們對早期結果感到非常滿意，並對有機會在超高端市場更有效地競爭感到興奮。

We continue to build our portfolio of non-combustible nicotine-containing products for authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In USSTC, we have the most profitable, non-combustible tobacco business in the world. The smokeless segment delivered outstanding adjusted OCI growth of more than 11% in 2017 despite the voluntary recall. Copenhagen continued to grow, and USSTC improved Skoal's overall profitability while investing behind its snus and blends offerings. Copenhagen's retail share grew 0.5 share point to 33.7%. On a combined basis, Copenhagen and Skoal retail share declined 0.9 share point, reflecting USSTC's continued focus on growing Copenhagen while refining its Skoal investments to enhance profitability. The product recall also affected retail share in the year, predominantly for Skoal. We're excited about USSTC's role in a regulatory framework that recognizes the continuum of risk. The MRTP application for Copenhagen Snuff is on schedule to be submitted this quarter.

我們繼續建立我們的不可燃含尼古丁產品組合，以獲得美國食品和藥物管理局的授權。在 USSTC，我們擁有世界上最賺錢的不可燃煙草業務。儘管自願召回，無菸部門在 2017 年實現了超過 11% 的出色調整後 OCI 增長。哥本哈根繼續增長，USSTC 提高了 Skoal 的整體盈利能力，同時對其鼻煙和混合產品進行投資。哥本哈根的零售份額增長 0.5 個百分點至 33.7%。哥本哈根和 Skoal 零售份額合計下降 0.9 個百分點，反映出 USSTC 繼續專注於發展哥本哈根，同時完善其 Skoal 投資以提高盈利能力。產品召回還影響了該年度的零售份額，主要是 Skoal。我們對 USSTC 在承認風險連續性的監管框架中的作用感到興奮。哥本哈根鼻煙的 MRTP 申請將按計劃在本季度提交。

In e-vapor, Nu Mark grew MarkTen's volume by approximately 60% driven by expanded distribution and category growth. MarkTen had a full year national retail share of approximately 12.5% in mainstream channels. Nu Mark expanded the distribution of MarkTen Bold to approximately 25,000 stores. At Investor Day, we displayed Nu Mark's expanded product portfolio, which it built through a combination of internal development, joint development with PMI, strategic partnerships and acquisitions. These products include APEX and VIM by MarkTen, which are 2 close tank systems, and MarkTen Elite and CYNC, which are 2 pod-based products.

在 e-vapor 方面，Nu Mark 在擴大分銷和類別增長的推動下，將 MarkTen 的銷量增長了約 60%。 MarkTen 在主流渠道的全年全國零售份額約為 12.5%。 Nu Mark 將 MarkTen Bold 的分銷範圍擴大到約 25,000 家門店。在投資者日，我們展示了 Nu Mark 擴展的產品組合，它通過內部開發、與 PMI 的聯合開發、戰略合作夥伴關係和收購相結合而建立。這些產品包括 APEX 和 MarkTen 的 VIM，它們是 2 個封閉罐系統，以及 MarkTen Elite 和 CYNC，它們是 2 個基於 pod 的產品。

In Heated Tobacco, the team at PM USA has made significant progress on its commercialization plans for IQOS, including a consumer engagement program and the development of digital strategies. The team is ready to act promptly upon FDA authorization of IQOS.

在加熱煙草方面，PM USA 的團隊在 IQOS 的商業化計劃上取得了重大進展，包括消費者參與計劃和數字戰略的製定。該團隊已準備好在 FDA 授權 IQOS 後立即採取行動。

So in summary, we're very pleased with our performance through a dynamic and challenging year.

總而言之，我們對我們在充滿活力和充滿挑戰的一年中的表現感到非常滿意。

Let's now turn to the recently enacted tax reform legislation. As we mentioned earlier, the strong 2017 results from our operating businesses were complemented by tax reform. As a result of a one-time deemed repatriation tax related to the legislation, the dividends we received from AB InBev last year were tax-free on an adjusted basis and lowered our 2017 adjusted tax rate. Beginning in 2018 and going forward, our results will benefit from the lower 21% U.S. federal statutory corporate rate and lower taxes on AB InBev dividends.

現在讓我們轉向最近頒布的稅收改革立法。正如我們之前提到的，我們經營業務的強勁 2017 年業績得到了稅收改革的補充。由於與立法相關的一次性遣返稅，我們去年從百威英博收到的股息在調整後是免稅的，並降低了我們 2017 年調整後的稅率。從 2018 年開始，我們的業績將受益於較低的 21% 美國聯邦法定公司稅率和較低的百威英博股息稅。

So let's turn to our guidance for 2018. We expect to deliver full year 2018 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.90 to $4.03 per share from a 2017 adjusted diluted EPS base of $3.39. This range represents a growth rate of 15% to 19% from 2017 and reflects expected higher net earnings as a result of tax reform net of strategic long-term investments we are making in our business. These investments are focused on key areas of long-term growth, including innovative product development and launches, including IQOS, regulatory science, equity enhancements to our brands, retail fixtures and future retail concepts. For example, our guidance reflects both anticipated investments in the IQOS lead market and equity enhancements designed to help stabilize Marlboro's share.

因此，讓我們轉向我們對 2018 年的指導。我們預計 2018 年全年調整後的攤薄每股收益將從 2017 年調整後的攤薄每股收益 3.39 美元基礎上實現 3.90 美元至 4.03 美元。該範圍代表 2017 年 15% 至 19% 的增長率，反映了由於稅制改革扣除我們在業務中進行的戰略性長期投資後預期的更高淨收益。這些投資集中在長期增長的關鍵領域，包括創新產品開發和發布，包括 IQOS、監管科學、我們品牌的股權增強、零售固定裝置和未來零售概念。例如，我們的指導既反映了對 IQOS 領先市場的預期投資，也反映了旨在幫助穩定萬寶路份額的股權增強。

Our 2018 plan includes reinvestment of approximately 1/3 of the total tax reform benefit we are receiving with a moderating level of investment in subsequent years. We believe this balanced approach will deliver annual adjusted diluted EPS growth rates above our long-term 7% to 9% aspiration through 2020.

我們的 2018 年計劃包括將我們獲得的稅收改革總收益的大約 1/3 進行再投資，隨後幾年的投資水平將有所緩和。我們相信，這種平衡的方法將使調整後的年度攤薄後每股收益增長率高於我們到 2020 年 7% 至 9% 的長期目標。

Before turning the call to Billy, today, we announced my decision to retire later this year when I turn 65. I'll step down following our annual shareholder meeting in May, after 25 years of service with the company. Though this change won't occur until May, let me say a word about it, and most especially about Howard and Billy. Through its long-term succession planning process, the board has elected Howard Willard to serve as the company's next Chairman and CEO. Howard is immensely qualified to lead Altria, having served in numerous leadership positions during his 25-year career with us. Billy Gifford has been elected to serve as a Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, reflecting his leadership and the valuable contributions he's made to our company. I just can't imagine 2 leaders more qualified and ready to take our company forward. Howard and Billy, with the other talented members of our leadership team, have been key contributors to the strategies that have delivered our strong results for the last several years. I firmly believe our business is well positioned for future success, and I'm confident we have the right leadership in Howard, Billy and the team to deliver continuing winning results.

今天，在將電話轉給比利之前，我們宣布了我在今年晚些時候 65 歲時退休的決定。在為公司服務 25 年後，我將在 5 月召開年度股東大會後辭職。雖然這種變化要到五月才會發生，但讓我談談它，尤其是霍華德和比利。通過其長期的繼任計劃過程，董事會選舉霍華德威拉德擔任公司下一任董事長兼首席執行官。霍華德非常有資格領導奧馳亞，他在我們的 25 年職業生涯中擔任過多個領導職位。 Billy Gifford 被選為副主席兼首席財務官，這反映了他的領導才能以及他對我們公司的寶貴貢獻。我無法想像有 2 位領導者更有資格並準備好帶領我們的公司前進。霍華德和比利，以及我們領導團隊的其他才華橫溢的成員，是過去幾年為我們帶來強勁成果的戰略的關鍵貢獻者。我堅信我們的業務已經為未來的成功做好了準備，我相信我們在霍華德、比利和團隊中擁有正確的領導力，能夠持續取得成功。

Now here's Billy with more detail on our performance.

現在，比利更詳細地介紹了我們的表現。

Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with some further color on the smokeable products segment. For the full year, smokeable segment reported cigarette shipment volume declined 5.1% primarily driven by the industry's rate of decline, retail share declines and one fewer shipping day. When adjusted for calendar differences, PM USA's cigarette shipment volume declined by an estimated 5%, and total industry cigarette volumes declined by 4%.

謝謝，Marty，大家早上好。讓我們從可抽吸產品部分的更多顏色開始。全年，可抽部分報告的捲煙出貨量下降了 5.1%，主要是由於行業下降速度、零售份額下降和運輸天數減少。根據日曆差異調整後，美國 PM 的捲煙出貨量估計下降了 5%，行業捲菸總銷量下降了 4%。

The fourth quarter reported cigarette shipment volume numbers were especially noisy with inventory movements, declining by 8.9%. When adjusted for inventory movements, PM USA's cigarette shipment volume declined by an estimated 6.5%. Total industry cigarette volume declined by an estimated 4.5%.

第四季度報告的捲煙出貨量數字因庫存變動而特別嘈雜，下降了 8.9%。經庫存變動調整後，PM USA 的捲煙出貨量估計下降了 6.5%。工業捲菸總銷量估計下降了 4.5%。

The cigar business continues to perform extremely well. For the full year, cigar volumes grew nearly 10% as Black & Mild volumes grew 10.7%. For the full year, smokeable segment adjusted OCI margins expanded by 3 percentage points to 51.2% driven primarily by higher pricing and lower SG&A expense. In the fourth quarter, adjusted OCI margins increased by 3.2 percentage points to 49.9%, primarily due to higher pricing, lower costs and lower promotional investments, partially offset by higher resolution expense.

雪茄業務繼續表現出色。全年，雪茄銷量增長近 10%，而 Black & Mild 銷量增長 10.7%。全年，可吸煙部門調整後的 OCI 利潤率增長了 3 個百分點，達到 51.2%，這主要是由於更高的定價和更低的 SG&A 費用。第四季度，調整後的 OCI 利潤率增長 3.2 個百分點至 49.9%，主要是由於更高的定價、更低的成本和更低的促銷投資，部分被更高的分辨率費用所抵消。

In the smokeless segment, USSTC's reported shipment volume declined by 1.4% for the full year, reflecting, in significant part, lost volume from the voluntary recall. After adjusting for trade inventory movements, USSTC estimates that adjusted smokeless products shipment volume declined by 2% for the year. In the fourth quarter, smokeless segment volumes declined by 0.6%. After adjusting for trade inventory movement, USSTC estimates that adjusted smokeless products shipment volume declined by 2.5%. USSTC estimates that smokeless products category volume was essentially unchanged over the past 6 months.

在無菸領域，USSTC 報告的全年出貨量下降了 1.4%，這在很大程度上反映了自願召回造成的出貨量損失。在對貿易庫存變動進行調整後，USSTC 估計，調整後的無菸產品出貨量全年下降了 2%。第四季度，無菸部分銷量下降了 0.6%。在對貿易庫存變動進行調整後，USSTC 估計調整後的無菸產品出貨量下降了 2.5%。 USSTC 估計，無菸產品類別的數量在過去 6 個月中基本沒有變化。

Smokeless products segment full year adjusted OCI margins expanded by 3.4 percentage points to 67.8% driven primarily by higher pricing and lower costs, partially offset by unfavorable mix. In the fourth quarter, adjusted OCI margins increased by 8.7 percentage points to 68.1% due primarily to the same factors.

無菸產品部門全年調整後的 OCI 利潤率增長 3.4 個百分點至 67.8%，主要是由於較高的定價和較低的成本，部分被不利的組合所抵消。第四季度，調整後的OCI利潤率增長8.7個百分點至68.1%，主要是由於相同的因素。

Turning to our alcohol assets. For the full year, wine segment adjusted OCI declined 12% due primarily to lower volume. In the fourth quarter, Ste. Michelle's adjusted OCI was essentially unchanged from the year ago period. In beer, fourth quarter adjusted equity earnings from our investment in Anheuser-Busch InBev were $251 million, reflecting AB InBev's third quarter results, which it reported in October. As a reminder, a year ago, we have essentially no adjusted fourth quarter equity earnings from our beer investment as a result of the 1 quarter reporting lag.

轉向我們的酒類資產。全年，葡萄酒部門調整後的 OCI 下降 12%，主要是由於銷量下降。在第四節，Ste。 Michelle 的調整後 OCI 與去年同期基本持平。在啤酒方面，我們對百威英博投資的第四季度調整後股權收益為 2.51 億美元，反映了百威英博在 10 月份公佈的第三季度業績。提醒一下，一年前，由於第一季度的報告滯後，我們的啤酒投資基本上沒有調整後的第四季度股票收益。

Marty mentioned tax reform, so let me take a moment to explain this in a bit more detail. There were 3 main effects of tax reform on our results and ongoing business. First, in 2017, we revalued our net deferred tax liabilities to reflect the new lower rate. We also incurred a one-time tax related to our share of accumulated earnings from our historic beer investment, often called a deemed repatriation tax. The net tax benefit of these items is reflected in our reported results, and we've included more details on our housekeeping page posted to Altria.com. Second, beginning in 2017 and going forward, we'll benefit from lower taxes on AB InBev dividends we receive. And third, we expect our 2018 adjusted tax rate to be between 23% and 24% primarily due to the lower corporate tax rate and lower taxes on ABI dividends.

馬蒂提到了稅收改革，所以讓我花點時間更詳細地解釋一下。稅制改革對我們的業績和持續業務產生了 3 個主要影響。首先，在 2017 年，我們重估了遞延所得稅負債淨額以反映新的較低稅率。我們還繳納了與我們從歷史啤酒投資中獲得的累積收益份額相關的一次性稅款，通常稱為視同遣返稅。這些項目的淨稅收優惠反映在我們報告的結果中，我們在發佈到 Altria.com 的客房服務頁面上提供了更多詳細信息。其次，從 2017 年開始，我們將受益於我們收到的百威英博股息的較低稅收。第三，我們預計 2018 年調整後的稅率將在 23% 至 24% 之間，主要是由於較低的公司稅率和較低的 ABI 股息稅。

Turning to our share repurchase program. We repurchased more than $2.9 billion in shares in 2017, including approximately $558 million in the fourth quarter, leaving $18 million in the program as of December 31. We subsequently completed the program in January, and yesterday, the board authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of 2018. We expect 2018 full year capital expenditures to be between $200 million and $250 million and depreciation and amortization expenses of approximately $210 million.

轉向我們的股票回購計劃。我們在 2017 年回購了超過 29 億美元的股票，其中包括第四季度的約 5.58 億美元，截至 12 月 31 日，該計劃剩餘 1800 萬美元。我們隨後在 1 月份完成了該計劃，昨天，董事會授權了新的 10 億美元股票回購計劃，我們預計將在 2018 年底完成。我們預計 2018 年全年資本支出在 2 億美元至 2.5 億美元之間，折舊和攤銷費用約為 2.1 億美元。

That concludes our prepared remarks, and Marty and I are now happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other housekeeping items.

我們準備好的發言到此結束，Marty 和我現在很高興回答您的問題。在編譯電話時，我會提醒您，今天的收益發布和我們的非 GAAP 對賬可在 altria.com 上獲得。我們還發布了我們通常的季度指標，其中包括定價、庫存和其他內務管理項目。

With that, operator, do we have any questions?

有了這個，接線員，我們有什麼問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Chris Growe with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

And Marty, I was surprised to see the news this morning, but I want to wish you well. It's obviously very well-deserved. So I just had a couple of questions very quickly.

還有馬蒂，今天早上看到這個消息我很驚訝，但我想祝你一切順利。這顯然是當之無愧的。所以我很快就提出了幾個問題。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Sure, sure. A couple of questions very quickly. I guess, I just -- we haven't heard from -- other than maybe a press release from Philip Morris, just it's this kind of the assessment at TPSAC meeting last week, and I guess, it's a bit of a mixed result that came out of the meeting in terms of the voting there. But -- and I realized it's not the binding decision. But so -- and maybe you could share your thoughts on how that process went and kind of how you're looking at 2018. It sounds like you do hopefully expect to launch that throughout the year.

一定一定。幾個問題很快。我想，我只是 - 我們還沒有收到消息 - 除了可能來自菲利普莫里斯的新聞稿，只是上週 TPSAC 會議上的這種評估，我想，結果有點好壞參半就那裡的投票而言，會議退出了會議。但是——我意識到這不是具有約束力的決定。但是所以——也許你可以分享你對這個過程是如何進行的以及你如何看待 2018 年的看法。聽起來你確實希望在全年推出這個。

Yes. Look, it's been widely covered and analyzed, and I grew with much of what has been written about it. Chris, I think the best way to see it is it's an important step forward in the process that's required to get an MRTP approval, which we continue to believe will be the case. I thought that the teams who presented did an amazingly good job of presenting the science and the evidence and then responding to questions. I thought it was extremely important that the TPSAC was convinced very thoroughly, convinced, obviously, that IQOS significantly reduces exposure to constituents of concern. So we're looking forward to continuing to work with PMI and the FDA on that. And our view is that it had, if anything, a positive effect on the PMTA application.

是的。看，它已經被廣泛地報導和分析了，我在很多關於它的文章中成長。克里斯，我認為最好的方式是看到它是在獲得 MRTP 批准所需的過程中向前邁出的重要一步，我們仍然相信情況會如此。我認為展示的團隊在展示科學和證據然後回答問題方面做得非常出色。我認為 TPSAC 非常徹底地被說服，顯然，IQOS 顯著減少了對相關成分的暴露，這一點非常重要。因此，我們期待繼續與 PMI 和 FDA 合作。我們的觀點是，如果有的話，它對 PMTA 申請產生了積極影響。

That's great. And then just a question for you about your investments you're making in 2018. And I think you have a broad array of areas in which you're investing, and obviously, the tax benefit allows that. I'm curious, as we think about -- without getting too specific of course, but like as you -- you have a lot of investments in, say, reduced-risk product, done a lot of activity this year, as well as investments back in the underlying business. Is there any way you can better characterize where you're putting is most of the incremental investment dollar going behind reduced-risk products and MRTPAs and that kind of thing? Or is it more behind the base business?

那太棒了。然後只是一個關於你在 2018 年進行的投資的問題。我認為你有廣泛的投資領域，顯然，稅收優惠允許這樣做。我很好奇，正如我們所想的那樣——當然沒有太具體，但就像你一樣——你有很多投資，比如說，降低風險的產品，今年做了很多活動，以及投資於基礎業務。有什麼方法可以更好地描述您將大部分增量投資資金用於降低風險產品和 MRTPA 之類的東西？還是更落後於基礎業務？

It's both. And we tried to articulate it both in the release and then in our remarks, Chris. But I can try to give you an inflection point or two, if it'll help, within the bounds of trying to be wise about the competition. We have several areas that we've called out. So if you look at innovative products, which is obviously, a significant step forward for us, we have investments, and therefore, the IQOS launch, that's our plan. We expect to get that approval, and so we put investment there. We're going to expand MarkTen Elite, which is a pod-based product, and there's going to be an investment there. You remember from the Investor day, for example, that Brian Quigley was talking about, an expansion of our Verve product. And all of that, of course, has to be supported by regulatory science. So those of you who watched the TPSAC, I think now understand the importance of having very good science done and good clinical trials, and that all takes investment. In the core, what we're trying to do is to make sure that long-term equity of our brands is strong. That's why we have the successful business we have. So whether it's the national expansion of Marlboro Ice or what I described in the remarks around Benson & Hedges or improving our digital platform, those are all areas that we invest in. But we now have some benefits from the tax reform, and so it's a good year to make those further investments because they will pay long-term returns for shareholders. So I don't want to get into numbers, as you can appreciate, Chris, but those are the areas we're thinking about.

兩者都是。我們試圖在發布和我們的評論中闡明它，克里斯。但我可以試著給你一兩個拐點，如果它會有所幫助，在試圖對競爭保持明智的範圍內。我們已經提到了幾個領域。因此，如果您看一下創新產品，這顯然是我們向前邁出的重要一步，我們有投資，因此 IQOS 的推出，就是我們的計劃。我們希望獲得批准，因此我們在那裡進行了投資。我們將擴展基於 pod 的產品 MarkTen Elite，並且將在那裡進行投資。例如，你記得在投資者日，Brian Quigley 談到了我們 Verve 產品的擴展。當然，所有這些都必須得到監管科學的支持。所以那些觀看過 TPSAC 的人，我想現在明白了完成非常好的科學和好的臨床試驗的重要性，而這一切都需要投資。在核心，我們正在努力做的是確保我們品牌的長期資產是強大的。這就是我們擁有成功業務的原因。所以無論是萬寶路冰的全國擴張，還是我在圍繞 Benson & Hedges 的評論中描述的，或者改進我們的數字平台，這些都是我們投資的領域。但是我們現在從稅收改革中得到了一些好處，所以這是一個進行這些進一步投資的好年份，因為它們將為股東支付長期回報。所以我不想涉及數字，正如你所理解的那樣，克里斯，但這些是我們正在考慮的領域。

And your next question comes from Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Judy Hong。

And best wishes to you from me as well, Marty.

馬蒂，我也向你致以最良好的祝愿。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So I guess just going back to investments and kind of guidance, because I think that given Marlboro's relatively soft share performance in 2017, there's a lot of people concerned that this investment implies potential for sort of changes in terms of how you're thinking about pricing or promotions. So I guess, if you could just maybe elaborate on sort of that, not being the case, because it sounds like it's -- a lot of it is equity and innovation-driven activity. And then when you think about Marlboro, you talked about California and elevated competitive activity, so share performance for Marlboro outside of California, and how do you expect the share performance to progress in 2018 because, obviously, you're going to be starting to lap the California tax in April of this year?

所以我想回到投資和指導，因為我認為鑑於萬寶路在 2017 年相對疲軟的股票表現，很多人擔心這項投資意味著你的想法可能會發生某種變化定價或促銷。所以我想，如果你能詳細說明一下，但事實並非如此，因為這聽起來像是——其中很多是公平和創新驅動的活動。然後當你想到萬寶路時，你談到了加州和競爭活動的增加，所以萬寶路在加州以外的股票表現，以及你預計 2018 年的股票表現如何進步，因為很明顯，你將開始今年四月加稅？

Sure. I think the description is good, one about the investments, which is that is going to be equity and innovation-driven. Our strategy continues to be to maximize income in the smokeable segment while maintaining momentum. Momentum is best measured over time, I think, and it's best measured over multiple metrics. Share is one, and it's important, but it's not the only one. So I won't reprise this in full because I know you know it. But when we look at its equity, its demographics and its profitability, Marlboro is in really good shape. But you heard me call out unique challenges. When California, a market of that size, has a $2 per pack SET increase all at once, it disrupted the market there. The good news is that in the fourth quarter, Marlboro shares stabilized in California, so we're hopefully now in the section where we can reset from that base. What we're trying to do is to stabilize Marlboro share, which I believe the team has excellent plans to do in some of the remarks we've already made about that, and that's the objective. But it's always done within the context of the strategy, which is to maximize income. So it's about equity. It's about innovation. Of course, you have to compete, but we're mindful of how the category operates for us.

當然。我認為描述很好，關於投資，這將是股權和創新驅動的。我們的戰略仍然是在保持增長勢頭的同時最大限度地提高可吸煙部分的收入。我認為，最好是隨著時間的推移來衡量動量，最好是通過多個指標來衡量。分享是其中之一，它很重要，但不是唯一的。所以我不會完全重複這個，因為我知道你知道。但是，當我們查看其股權、人口結構和盈利能力時，萬寶路的狀況非常好。但是你聽到我提到了獨特的挑戰。當加州這個規模如此之大的市場，每包 SET 一次性上漲 2 美元時，它擾亂了那裡的市場。好消息是，在第四季度，萬寶路的股票在加州穩定下來，所以我們希望現在可以從那個基礎重新開始。我們正在努力做的是穩定萬寶路的份額，我相信團隊在我們已經發表的一些評論中已經有了很好的計劃，這就是目標。但它總是在戰略的背景下完成，即最大化收入。所以這是關於公平的。這是關於創新。當然，您必須競爭，但我們注意該類別對我們的運作方式。

Okay. And then just going back to guidance. So I know it's an unusual year just because you've got the tax benefit. But if you kind of strip out the tax benefit, given the reinvestment, it actually does imply very little, if at all, earnings growth. So I'm just curious, number one, has there not been a tax reform, would you have actually guided to kind of a flat year in 2018? And as shareholders, and I think this is probably more important question, as shareholders, how do you think they should assess whether these investments are really paying off? I mean, is it really about earnings growth being above your long-term targets? Would top line growth have to accelerate more meaningfully? Just understanding how you would recommend us to kind of assess whether these investments are actually the right investments.

好的。然後回到指導。所以我知道這是不尋常的一年，因為你有稅收優惠。但如果你去掉稅收優惠，考慮到再投資，它實際上並不意味著，如果有的話，盈利增長。所以我很好奇，第一，沒有稅收改革，你真的會引導到 2018 年的平穩年份嗎？作為股東，我認為這可能是更重要的問題，作為股東，你認為他們應該如何評估這些投資是否真的有回報？我的意思是，這真的是關於盈利增長高於您的長期目標嗎？收入增長是否必須更有意義地加速？只要了解您會如何推薦我們來評估這些投資是否真的是正確的投資。

Yes. I'm not going to tear its constituent parts -- apart as you can appreciate. But I think the best evidence of what we would have done, absent the tax reform, is what we have done, which is we have grown at about an 8% adjusted EPS growth rate through thick and thin. We obviously have the benefit of the tax reform. What we've tried to do is to be thoughtful about it, so that we can make the investments that are appropriate for the long term, reward shareholders. My goodness, 15% to 19% guidance at the adjusted EPS line. And remember, Judy, it's off a higher base right of $3.39. So we think that's the right thing to do. There will be some variability at the operating company income line because we make investments, and as you know, depending upon when they hit and the timing of each quarter, and what I would suggest investors is they just look past that because we continue to have strong operating companies that are consistent in their strategies, and we're guiding to 15% to 19% EPS growth. And then even though we don't guide past '18, we knew there would be interest in understanding what might happen in '19 and '20, and that's why we made the comment we did about we would expect to moderate the investments after that. So investors should expect that as well. I hope that's helpful to you, but I don't want to tear apart the adjusted guidance.

是的。我不會撕毀它的組成部分——除了你可以理解的。但我認為，在沒有稅制改革的情況下，我們所做的最好證據就是我們所做的，即我們經歷了風雨飄搖，調整後每股收益增長率約為 8%。我們顯然受益於稅制改革。我們試圖做的是深思熟慮，這樣我們才能做出適合長期的投資，回報股東。我的天哪，在調整後的每股收益線上有 15% 到 19% 的指導。請記住，朱迪，它的基礎權利較高，為 3.39 美元。所以我們認為這是正確的做法。運營公司的收入線會有一些變化，因為我們進行投資，正如你所知，這取決於它們何時發生以及每個季度的時間安排，我建議投資者他們只是看過去，因為我們繼續擁有戰略一致的強大運營公司，我們的目標是每股收益增長 15% 至 19%。然後，即使我們沒有超過 18 年，我們知道會有興趣了解 19 年和 20 年可能發生的事情，這就是為什麼我們發表評論說我們希望在那之後緩和投資.所以投資者也應該期待這一點。我希望這對您有所幫助，但我不想拆開調整後的指導。

And your next question comes from Adam Spielman with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的亞當·斯皮爾曼。

First of all, my congratulations on your retirement. I hope it goes very well.

首先，祝賀你退休。我希望一切順利。

Thank you, Adam.

謝謝你，亞當。

And just very quickly, there was a question that actually Judy asked that didn't get answered, which is an interesting one, is how we should judge the success or not of the investments. I guess there's one way of thinking about that is in terms of Marlboro market share. You've used the term stabilized. And I guess the question is, if at the end of 2018 you have the same market share as you had in 4Q '17, that's, in my mind, would be stabilized, but I would've thought you want to see it sort of core up towards the high 43s as opposed to just saying at around 43%. So I guess that's one question, and I do have a completely separate follow-up question on the tax.

很快，Judy 提出了一個沒有得到回答的問題，這是一個有趣的問題，就是我們應該如何判斷投資的成功與否。我想有一種思考方式是考慮萬寶路的市場份額。你已經使用了穩定這個詞。我想問題是，如果在 2018 年底你的市場份額與 17 年第四季度的市場份額相同，那麼在我看來，這將是穩定的，但我認為你希望看到它核心上升到 43% 的高位，而不是僅僅說在 43% 左右。所以我想這是一個問題，我確實有一個關於稅收的完全獨立的後續問題。

Okay. Let me take the first one then, Adam. I think when you are declining throughout 2017, the first order of business is to get it stabilized. So I think that's the sensible thing to do, and the way that we're going to do that is through equity investments and other means that I've already described, so I won't repeat that. I also think that it is helpful for people to remember that share is 1 of 4 measures that we use to measure to brand health, and so that's another way to answer Judy's question, which is, well, how is Marlboro's equity, how are its demographics, what is the profitability that it generates. And so those are good metrics, along with share, I think, to gauge the brand health. And I won't repeat again to you what you already know, which is those metrics are all very quite strong. We had a unique year with the share, and we're addressing it.

好的。讓我拿第一個，亞當。我認為當你在整個 2017 年下滑時，首要任務是讓它穩定下來。所以我認為這是明智的做法，我們要做的方式是通過股權投資和我已經描述的其他方式，所以我不會重複。我還認為這有助於人們記住份額是我們用來衡量品牌健康的 4 個指標中的一個，所以這是回答朱迪問題的另一種方式，那就是，萬寶路的資產如何，它的資產如何？人口統計，它產生的盈利能力是多少。因此，我認為這些都是很好的指標，以及份額，可以衡量品牌的健康狀況。我不會再向您重複您已經知道的內容，即這些指標都非常強大。我們在份額方面度過了獨特的一年，我們正在解決這個問題。

Yes. No, that's fair enough. And then just turning to the tax. Obviously, the national tax rate has gone to 21%. You're suggesting you're going to have a tax rate of 23% to 24%. And I was just wondering if you could highlight why and what the difference is between that 21% national rate and the 23%, 24% you expect to have.

是的。不，這很公平。然後只是轉向稅收。顯然，國家稅率已經達到了21%。您是在建議您的稅率為 23% 到 24%。我只是想知道你是否能強調一下為什麼以及 21% 的全國稅率與你期望的 23%、24% 之間的差異。

Yes, Adam. The major difference there between those 2 numbers that you're quoting is state tax impact. So that's an all-in number for us.

是的，亞當。您引用的這兩個數字之間的主要區別是州稅影響。所以這對我們來說是一個全押數字。

And your next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Bonnie Herzog。

And congratulations on your retirement, Marty. You'll be missed.

祝賀你退休，馬蒂。你會被想念的。

Thanks, Bonnie. Appreciate that.

謝謝，邦妮。感謝。

So my first question is on Marlboro. I guess, I wanted to hear from you guys if you were surprised with the magnitude of the sequential deterioration of the brand's share performance in the quarter. And then, how has some of your new line extension been performing on the brand such as Marlboro Ice?

所以我的第一個問題是關於萬寶路的。我想，如果您對本季度品牌股票表現的連續惡化幅度感到驚訝，我想听聽你們的意見。然後，你的一些新產品線在萬寶路冰等品牌上的表現如何？

Yes. Well, let me take the second part first. It's early, as you know. And I think you had a discussion with us at Investor Day about that. We continue to work through the effects of California, is the honest answer on the share question. And remember, we've got a quarter to go to lap it in 2018. But again, I'd encourage people to think about this over the long term. Again, I looked back over the last 6 years, on average, we gained about 1/10. In some years, it went up a lot, and then the questions were about, are you overheating Marlboro and how its going down because of California, and people get concerned about it. The brand health is a strong. We have excellent new innovation that we're bringing to the brand. I think the team has very good plans for 2018, and that's how we're thinking about it. And I think we're going to have a strong year in 2018.

是的。好吧，讓我先講第二部分。如你所知，現在還早。我想你在投資者日與我們討論過這個問題。我們繼續努力通過加州的影響，是對份額問題的誠實答案。請記住，我們在 2018 年還有四分之一的時間來完成它。但是，我再次鼓勵人們從長遠角度考慮這一點。同樣，我回顧過去 6 年，平均而言，我們獲得了大約 1/10。在某些年份，它上升了很多，然後問題是，你是否過熱萬寶路以及它是如何因為加利福尼亞而下降的，人們對此感到擔憂。品牌健康度很強。我們為品牌帶來了出色的新創新。我認為團隊對 2018 年的計劃非常好，這就是我們的想法。我認為我們將在 2018 年迎來強勁的一年。

Okay. And then switching gears a bit, just on PM USA. I was hoping you could give us an indication of where you think the FDA might be on your review of your PMTA for IQOS. So I'm just trying to get a sense of the 180-day clock, and has it stopped, restarted along the way, so just trying to get a sense of when you might expect to hear this vision on that. And then, do you guys think that the outcome of the TPSAC meeting, which given how the panel voted and the conversation, do you think that will have any bearing on the PMTA review process itself, just in terms of either the outcome or even timing?

好的。然後稍微切換一下，就在 PM USA 上。我希望你能給我們一個指示，說明你認為 FDA 可能在你對 IQOS 的 PMTA 的審查中處於什麼位置。所以我只是想了解 180 天的時鐘，它是否停止了，沿途重新開始，所以只是想了解您何時可能會聽到這個願景。然後，你們認為 TPSAC 會議的結果，考慮到小組的投票方式和對話，你們認為這會對 PMTA 審查過程本身有任何影響嗎，就結果甚至時間而言?

Yes. So on the timing, I wish I could give you more, but it's a kind of a processes within FDA, so I really don't have any insight to share with you on that, other than the nominal time line that's in the statue and, of course, the activity that FDA has undertaken on it. I've mentioned to another caller that we came away from the TPSAC believing that the team did an excellent job of presenting the case for the MRTP, and we remain very optimistic about that. And I don't think any damage was done at all to the PMTA. If anything, I mean, the TPSAC panel, which is, after all, an advisory panel, concluded that it reduced exposure relative to conventional cigarettes. And I would think that's an important thing that FDA will take into account in looking at the PMTA application.

是的。所以關於時間安排，我希望我能給你更多，但這是 FDA 內部的一種流程，所以我真的沒有任何見解可以與你分享，除了雕像中的名義時間線和，當然是 FDA 對其進行的活動。我曾向另一位來電者提到，我們離開 TPSAC 時認為該團隊在展示 MRTP 案例方面做得非常出色，我們對此仍然非常樂觀。而且我認為 PMTA 根本沒有受到任何損害。如果有的話，我的意思是，TPSAC 小組，畢竟是一個諮詢小組，得出的結論是，與傳統捲菸相比，它減少了接觸。我認為這是 FDA 在查看 PMTA 申請時將考慮的重要事項。

Okay. And if I could just squeeze in 1 final question before I drop is, would love to get your take on the consumer and what you're seeing right now with the consumer, especially in terms of some growth we're seeing behind the deep discount or maybe 4-tier cig volume, and then your expectations for the consumer in this interesting year with tax reform and potential greater disposable income, especially for your demographics.

好的。如果我能在我放棄之前最後一個問題是，我很想了解你對消費者的看法以及你現在對消費者的看法，特別是在我們看到大幅折扣背後的一些增長方面或者可能是 4 級香煙的數量，然後是您在這個有趣的一年中對消費者的期望，即稅收改革和潛在的更大可支配收入，尤其是對您的人口統計數據。

Sure. I'll give you the headline, then I'll give you the ledger. So the headline is I think we're net positive, okay? There are a number of continuing positive factors for our consumer. You know what they are, of course. But low unemployment, high consumer confidence, including from our consumer. We do see some wage gains starting to flow through, including with some minimum wage increases. Housing starts remain pretty stable, indeed, maybe up a tick. And it could be that tax reform will help our consumer. We certainly are hoping so. So I think those are all strong drivers. There are a few things that we watch. Naturally, we watch the excise tax environment. We're watching C-store trends, and we're watching gas prices. So we do this every month, and we look at all of those. But right -- where we are right now, I think it's net positive. We're a long way into an economic uptick, but net-net, I think we're pretty positive on the consumer.

當然。我會給你標題，然後我會給你分類帳。所以標題是我認為我們是淨積極的，好嗎？對於我們的消費者來說，有許多持續的積極因素。你當然知道它們是什麼。但失業率低，消費者信心高，包括來自我們的消費者。我們確實看到一些工資增長開始流入，包括一些最低工資的增加。房屋開工仍然相當穩定，實際上可能會有所上升。稅收改革可能會幫助我們的消費者。我們當然希望如此。所以我認為這些都是強大的驅動力。我們有幾件事值得關注。自然，我們會關註消費稅環境。我們正在關注 C 商店的趨勢，我們正在關注汽油價格。所以我們每個月都會這樣做，我們會查看所有這些。但是，正確 - 我們現在所處的位置，我認為這是淨積極的。我們距離經濟增長還有很長的路要走，但是淨網，我認為我們對消費者非常樂觀。

And your next question comes from Vivien Azer with Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Vivien Azer 和 Cowen。

I'll also extend my congratulations to you, Marty. 2 questions for me, please. First, on the comment on above-algorithm EPS flow-through 2020. I just wanted to be clear, that's in each of the next 3 years, it's not just a function of '18 being above algorithms. So as you kind of think about the average growth through 2020, it's going to be above 7% to 9%.

我還要向你表示祝賀，馬蒂。請給我2個問題。首先，關於 2020 年高於算法的 EPS 流的評論。我只是想澄清一下，這是在接下來的 3 年中的每一年，它不僅僅是 18 年高於算法的函數。因此，當您考慮到 2020 年的平均增長率時，它將超過 7% 到 9%。

I think I'll stick to what I said, so I don't get triple-wired here about guiding beyond the year in which we're guiding. So I'm -- I really have given you about as much as we can say about that without going astray there. What we're trying to communicate is because of the significant effect of tax reform, how we are thinking about it, not just for '18 but for '19 and '20. But I don't want to guide for '19 or '20. You just have to indulge me, Vivien, I'm sorry.

我想我會堅持我所說的，所以我不會在這裡對超出我們指導的那一年的指導感到三連。所以我 - 我真的已經給了你盡可能多的信息，而不會誤入歧途。我們試圖傳達的是因為稅收改革的顯著影響，我們是如何考慮它的，不僅僅是針對 18 年，而是針對 19 年和 20 年。但我不想指導 19 或 20 年。你只需要放縱我，薇薇安，對不起。

Certainly no. You can't fault me for trying, though. I wanted to follow up kind of on Bonnie's question, not necessarily about the consumer, and all of that makes a ton of sense. But specifically on your outlook for category volumes built in cigarettes and MST and, in particular, on the latter, the MST. If you could offer any thoughts on cross-category elasticities and the interaction with either cigarettes or e-cigarettes given the volume decline for the category.

當然沒有。不過，你不能因為我的嘗試而責怪我。我想跟進邦妮的問題，不一定是關於消費者的問題，所有這些都很有意義。但特別是關於您對捲菸和 MST 的類別數量的展望，特別是後者，MST。鑑於該類別的銷量下降，您能否就跨類別彈性以及與香煙或電子煙的相互作用提供任何想法。

Sure. We have some internal models on that, but I do think it's a fair conclusion that you do have movement between what an adult tobacco consumer is probably using products. I think the -- we estimate the category growth. The smokeless on a 6-month trailing basis, it's kind of flattish. It's probably due to 2 principal things. The first is price effects. There has been some pricing, including from excise taxes and interplay between the categories. And I would call out, in particular, vapor. We've seen this once before, and it looks to us like there may be some interplay between cigarette smokers, for example, who may be going to vapor instead of the smokeless. That said, when I look at how UST did in a year with flattish volumes for the industry, its ability to grow more than 11% and to keep Copenhagen growing despite a recall on top, that was really a testament to the job they did, and I commend the UST team.

當然。我們對此有一些內部模型，但我認為這是一個公平的結論，即在成年煙草消費者可能使用的產品之間確實存在變動。我認為 - 我們估計了類別的增長。在 6 個月的跟踪基礎上無菸，有點平淡。這可能是由於兩個主要的原因。首先是價格效應。有一些定價，包括消費稅和類別之間的相互作用。我會特別提到蒸汽。我們以前見過這種情況，在我們看來，吸煙者之間可能存在一些相互作用，例如，他們可能會變成蒸汽而不是無菸者。也就是說，當我看到 UST 在一年內該行業的銷量持平時，它的增長能力超過 11% 並保持哥本哈根的增長，儘管召回是最重要的，這確實證明了他們所做的工作，我讚揚 UST 團隊。

So just to be a little bit more specific then, do you think it's fair to kind of think of the MST category as flat now? I mean, obviously, like 5% growth, that was a long time ago at this point. But even kind of like 2% to 3%, is that reasonable anymore?

那麼，再具體一點，您認為現在將 MST 類別視為平坦是否公平？我的意思是，很明顯，就像 5% 的增長一樣，那是很久以前的事了。但即使是 2% 到 3%，這還合理嗎？

I don't know. We could only look at the data that we have. And we try to do it over a 6-month basis, Vivien, because there's a lot of movement up and down that distorts the numbers. But for the last 6-month period, it was flattish. I can't recall what it was on the last call, but it was in that range, I believe. So I can't predict what it's going to be, but we're watching it carefully because there is a lot of movement, I think, with the consumer within the categories.

我不知道。我們只能查看我們擁有的數據。 Vivien，我們嘗試在 6 個月的基礎上完成這項工作，因為有很多上下波動會扭曲數字。但在過去的 6 個月裡，它是平淡無奇的。我不記得上次通話時是什麼，但我相信它在那個範圍內。所以我無法預測它會是什麼，但我們正在仔細觀察它，因為我認為這些類別中的消費者有很多變化。

And your next question comes from Nik Modi with RBC.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Nik Modi。

This is Russ Miller, on for Nik. Congrats, Marty, on your retirement.

我是 Russ Miller，代表 Nik。祝賀你，馬蒂，你退休了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

We were wondering if you could provide more color on the competitive activity you mentioned in the release. Outside of California, is the competitive activity isolated to a certain geography or more broad? Any color there would be helpful.

我們想知道您是否可以為您在發布中提到的競爭活動提供更多顏色。在加利福尼亞之外，競爭活動是否與某個地理區域或更廣泛的區域相隔離？那裡的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure. Well, '17 was lively, I would say, on the competitive front. We have a lot of product expansions by competitors, including on multiple SKUs. Some of them were regional. I think that's actually a good insight into how the category is working increasingly, which is we tend to talk about all the national numbers, but we do see regional activity, and we see some activity, for example, in chains. A few chains have gotten behind some discount products. That push -- that puts pressure on everybody's brand, including ours. But you don't really see it affecting us, the discount that is, at the national level. Certainly, in the Southeast, we have some areas where there are products that are very significantly priced below our products, and that puts pressure on everybody's products. So I would say that it's always competitive in our industry, and '17 was no different. It may have been on the high end of what we've observed over the last couple of years.

當然。好吧，我想說，17 年在競爭方面很活躍。我們有很多競爭對手的產品擴展，包括多個 SKU。其中一些是區域性的。我認為這實際上是對該類別如何越來越多地運作的一個很好的洞察，即我們傾向於談論所有國家數字，但我們確實看到了區域活動，並且我們看到了一些活動，例如連鎖活動。一些連鎖店已經落後於一些折扣產品。這種推動——給每個人的品牌帶來壓力，包括我們的品牌。但是您並沒有真正看到它對我們的影響，即全國范圍內的折扣。當然，在東南部，我們有些地區的產品價格明顯低於我們的產品，這給每個人的產品帶來了壓力。所以我想說它在我們的行業中總是很有競爭力的，17 年也不例外。它可能處於我們在過去幾年中觀察到的高端。

And could you provide any more detail on the MarkTen Bold rollout and what the early consumer response there is?

您能否提供有關 MarkTen Bold 推出的更多細節以及早期消費者的反應？

Yes. It's been very good. I mentioned, I think, in the remarks, Russ, that we're now in 25,000 stores. And I think the consumer has reacted very well to the product, and we like what we see with MarkTen Bold.

是的。這是非常好的。我認為，Russ 在評論中提到，我們現在有 25,000 家商店。而且我認為消費者對產品的反應非常好，我們喜歡我們看到的 MarkTen Bold。

And your next question comes from Matthew Grainger with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Matthew Grainger。

And congratulations, Marty, as well. And we'll miss having the opportunity to work with you.

祝賀你，馬蒂。我們會錯過與您合作的機會。

Thanks, Matt.

謝謝，馬特。

I guess, first question, just on the TPSAC meeting and the MRTP process. I know you've spoken about this a little bit, and I jumped on the call late, so apologies, if I missed anything. But just curious, lessons that you learned from those discussions and just the initial phase of the process so far, and not specifically to predict the outcome of the IQOS application, more just broader learnings that you can apply to trying to streamline the process for other applications you planned to file like for Copenhagen, for instance, in the future.

我想，第一個問題，只是關於 TPSAC 會議和 MRTP 流程。我知道你已經談到了一點，我遲到了，所以很抱歉，如果我錯過了什麼。但只是好奇，你從這些討論中學到的經驗教訓，只是迄今為止過程的初始階段，而不是專門預測 IQOS 應用程序的結果，更多的只是更廣泛的學習，你可以應用到嘗試簡化其他過程的過程例如，您計劃在未來為哥本哈根提交的申請。

Yes, I think that's a good question. I think we learn every time we go there. And I think, you and I may have discussed, we -- our presence during the Swedish match hearings and what we learned from that. Look, I think one takeaway is that the preparation really matters, and I thought that the teams were outstanding in that regard. I thought that they had complete mastery of the subject matter. They answered every question I thought very fully. But you can see the rigor that's going to be applied. That's probably the second insight, which is it is in the statute that these products should be approved. I continue to believe they are going to be approved. But there's no question that the applicant has to carry that burden, and that's how we're preparing our applications because we want to get the products approved. I think it's also useful to observe that there are TPSAC members and then the FDA itself, which will ultimately make the decision about whether it should be approved. I think that's another insight about the meeting dynamic that one can learn from, because after all, it is FDA that's going to decide it. But I think those are the insights, which is you need to have the science work done, you need to have a really good team that's going to present it, you need to anticipate the questions that will come, and then you really have to make the case for your product. And I continue to believe that's going to happen, and that's certainly what we're working toward.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的問題。我想我們每次去那裡都能學到東西。我想，你和我可能已經討論過，我們——我們在瑞典比賽聽證會上的出席以及我們從中學到了什麼。看，我認為一個要點是準備工作真的很重要，而且我認為球隊在這方面表現出色。我認為他們已經完全掌握了這個主題。他們非常全面地回答了我認為的每一個問題。但是您可以看到將要應用的嚴謹性。這可能是第二個見解，即這些產品應該在法規中獲得批准。我仍然相信他們會被批准。但毫無疑問，申請人必須承擔這個負擔，這就是我們準備申請的方式，因為我們希望產品獲得批准。我認為觀察 TPSAC 成員和 FDA 本身也很有用，它們最終將決定是否應該批准。我認為這是人們可以從中學習的關於會議動態的另一種見解，因為畢竟是 FDA 將決定它。但我認為這些是洞察力，你需要完成科學工作，你需要有一個非常優秀的團隊來展示它，你需要預測將會出現的問題，然後你真的必須做出您的產品的案例。我仍然相信這會發生，這肯定是我們正在努力的方向。

Okay, Marty. And then one question, just on the PM USA business, and you may have already said your piece on this. But I understand the comparative factors and the competitive dynamics that weighed on overall cigarette volumes. But I'm still just trying to understand the balance between the volume declines and the pricing realization during the quarter, the fact that promotional expenses were down, pricing was quite high. Is that -- I understand that, that's 1 quarter in time, but it's an unusual delivery of top line for you to have 7% to 8% price mix realization and volumes being down that much. Is there anything else you can add to why you chose to pull back on promotional expenses and felt that, that was the right approach to the business in Q4?

好的，馬蒂。然後是關於 PM USA 業務的一個問題，您可能已經就此發表了自己的看法。但我了解影響整體捲菸銷量的比較因素和競爭動態。但我仍然只是想了解本季度銷量下降和定價實現之間的平衡，促銷費用下降的事實，定價相當高。是嗎 - 我知道，那是 1 個季度的時間，但是對於您來說，實現 7% 到 8% 的價格組合併且銷量下降這麼多，這是一種不尋常的頂線交付。為什麼您選擇縮減促銷費用並認為這是第四季度業務的正確方法，您還有什麼可以補充的嗎？

Well, it's really the reallocation, I would say, rather than pulling back. And Matt, it really is true that these things flow in and out of quarters, and it's really hard to extrapolate from that. But I'll try to help you by referring to the full year numbers. So when I look at the smokeable business, which, again, which had the share challenge, we've got income growing at about 7%, above $8.5 billion. We've got good margin expansion of 3 percentage points to 51%. The volume hit us because, obviously, with a 4% industry decline and the share challenge, we took more of a volume decline than we would have liked. We've already talked about Marlboro. So I've got net pricing for the year at about 5.9%. I would say that's within the range, but it's probably at the higher end of the range. And the other thing I'd say about '18, which may help, is we -- PM USA has 1 more shipping day in '18 than we had in '17. So that's how we look at it. I think they had a terrific year, not without its challenges, but in a segment that you run for income, I thought that they really did a good job.

嗯，我想說，這真的是重新分配，而不是撤回。還有馬特，這些東西確實會進進出出，而且很難從中推斷出來。但我會嘗試通過參考全年數字來幫助您。因此，當我查看可吸煙業務時，再次面臨份額挑戰，我們的收入增長了約 7%，超過 85 億美元。我們的利潤率增長了 3 個百分點，達到 51%。銷量打擊了我們，因為顯然，隨著行業下滑 4% 和份額挑戰，我們的銷量下降幅度超出了我們的預期。我們已經討論過萬寶路。所以我今年的淨定價約為 5.9%。我會說這在範圍內，但它可能在範圍的高端。關於 18 年，我要說的另一件事可能會有所幫助，那就是我們 - PM USA 在 18 年的發貨日比我們在 17 年的發貨日多 1 天。所以我們就是這麼看的。我認為他們度過了非常棒的一年，並非沒有挑戰，但在你為收入而奔波的細分市場中，我認為他們確實做得很好。

And your next question comes from Michael Lavery with Piper Jaffray.

您的下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 和 Piper Jaffray。

And Marty, congrats, too. You'll be missed.

馬蒂，也恭喜你。你會被想念的。

Thanks, Michael.

謝謝，邁克爾。

Just wanted to touch back on the promotion side. I think one thing noticeably absent from your list of investments for 2018 is price, which I think investors would be encouraged by. But just in terms of some of the flexibility that you have there, can you touch on maybe how you're thinking about your positioning for Marlboro Ice? Will that have promotional spend or an introductory price similar to how a special blend or black first came on to the market?

只是想回到促銷方面。我認為你的 2018 年投資清單中明顯缺少的一件事是價格，我認為投資者會受到鼓舞。但是，就您在那裡擁有的一些靈活性而言，您能否談談您如何考慮您在萬寶路冰上的定位？是否會有類似於特殊混合或黑色首次進入市場的促銷支出或介紹價格？

No, it's going to have a mainline price, although we, obviously, will have offers to try to incent trial from competitive smokers.

不，它將有一個主線價格，儘管我們顯然會提供嘗試鼓勵有競爭力的吸煙者試用的提議。

Okay, great. That's helpful. And then as you touch on some of the color on the next couple of years, I realize you don't want to guide anything there. But if IQOS is approved for marketing authorization this year and gets into the market, it would presumably have a growing footprint over the next couple of years. Would some of the ability to moderate the spending over that same period be because a lot of the science costs come upfront and it's more 2018-heavy? Is that the right way to think about it?

好，太棒了。這很有幫助。然後當你在接下來的幾年裡觸及一些顏色時，我意識到你不想在那裡指導任何事情。但如果 IQOS 在今年獲得上市許可並進入市場，那麼它在未來幾年的足跡可能會越來越大。在同一時期減少支出的一些能力會不會是因為很多科學成本都是預先支付的，而且在 2018 年更加沉重？這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Well, I think there will be puts and takes. We have scenarios that we've built, depending upon what happens in the lead market. Obviously, if IQOS is a big hit as we believe and hope it will be, we will expand it and scale it up, and there will be costs associated with doing that. The -- most of the science work, I guess, would be -- would have been done on the PMTA under that scenario. But to the extent that further work needs to be done on the MRTP, we'll just have to see how that goes. This is the dilemma for us. We try to help you all with your modeling, but for us to tell you all the puts and takes would be to tell you something that we don't know until we see the year. So I'm trying to be careful about that.

好吧，我認為會有投入和投入。我們有我們已經建立的場景，這取決於領先市場中發生的情況。顯然，如果 IQOS 像我們相信和希望的那樣大受歡迎，我們將擴大它並擴大規模，這樣做會產生相關成本。在這種情況下，我猜大部分的科學工作將是在 PMTA 上完成的。但就 MRTP 需要做的進一步工作而言，我們只需要看看進展如何。這是我們的困境。我們試圖幫助你們所有人進行建模，但對我們來說，告訴你們所有的投入和投入就是告訴你們一些我們在看到這一年之前不知道的事情。所以我試圖對此保持謹慎。

And your next question comes from Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Priya Ohri-Gupta。

Marty, congratulations on the retirement. Billy, I was wondering if we could just get some thoughts from you around how you're thinking about your debt profile going forward. You have a couple of early chunky high-coupon maturities this year and next year. Given some of the tax law changes, how should we think about your prioritization of paying those down versus refinancing those in the debt market?

馬蒂，祝賀你退休。比利，我想知道我們是否可以從你那裡得到一些關於你對未來債務狀況的看法。今年和明年你有幾個早期的厚實的高息票到期。鑑於稅法的一些變化，我們應該如何考慮您在債務市場上支付首付和再融資的優先順序？

Yes, thanks for the question. As you know, when we look at the debt, you've seen us take advantage of marketplace conditions in the past. It's all marketplace contingent. We have to assess the marketplace and decide what we're going to do. If not, then we reach the maturity date, and we go ahead and pay those off. So it really is marketplace-dependent, and I'm not going to get ahead of ourselves on that.

是的，謝謝你的提問。如您所知，當我們查看債務時，您已經看到我們在過去利用了市場條件。這完全取決於市場。我們必須評估市場並決定我們要做什麼。如果沒有，那麼我們就到了到期日，我們繼續付清這些。所以它確實取決於市場，我不會在這方面超越自己。

(Operator Instructions) And you do have a follow-up question from Adam Spielman with Citi.

（操作員說明）您確實有來自花旗的 Adam Spielman 的後續問題。

I just want to -- so was thinking a lot about Marlboro. But I just like to return to the smokeless. Don't you think about Skoal and Cope all together? Obviously, your market share was down to the full year, 90 basis points, partly due to the recall. It has done a bit more than that in 4Q. And you said the Marlboro is the first order was to stabilize market share. But if we think of those 2 brands together, Cope and Skoal, how, in broad terms, do you think we should think about it playing out? Because I guess, there's some obviously some equity investments in those, if I'm not wrong.

我只是想 - 想了很多關於萬寶路的事情。但我只是喜歡回到無菸狀態。你不把 Skoal 和 Cope 放在一起嗎？顯然，您的市場份額下降到全年 90 個基點，部分原因是召回。它比第四季度做得更多。而你說的萬寶路是為了穩定市場份額的第一筆訂單。但是，如果我們將 Cope 和 Skoal 這兩個品牌放在一起考慮，從廣義上講，您認為我們應該如何看待它？因為我猜，如果我沒記錯的話，顯然有一些股權投資。

Correct. We're always investing in the equity of those brands, that's right. And the way we think about it -- no, that's all right. I think I have to trust your question. But if I don't, ask me again. But I think what you're really asking is what's the portfolio strategy there. And we've spoken about this in the past, and it hasn't changed. What we're trying to do is to unleash Copenhagen because it wants to grow, it's a terrific brand, and it's the aspirational brand in the category. We do have a brand that has large share in Skoal, and it has a role to play in the portfolio, particularly with respect to appealing to adult smokers who may want to come in to dipping, and that's why it has snooze, for example, and blends. But what we're trying to do is to increase the profitability of the overall portfolio, and we are doing that by changing the promotional mix on Skoal. So when you put those 2 constituent parts together, that's why you produce a year, for example, where you have income growth of greater than 11% is because Copenhagen is growing and because Skoal is more profitable.

正確的。我們一直在投資這些品牌的股權，這是對的。以及我們思考它的方式——不，沒關係。我想我必須相信你的問題。但如果我不這樣做，請再問我一次。但我認為你真正要問的是那裡的投資組合策略是什麼。我們過去曾談到過這一點，並且沒有改變。我們試圖做的是釋放哥本哈根，因為它想要成長，它是一個了不起的品牌，它是該類別中的理想品牌。我們確實有一個在 Skoal 中佔有很大份額的品牌，它可以在產品組合中發揮作用，特別是在吸引可能想要來蘸醬的成年吸煙者方面，這就是它打盹的原因，例如，和混合。但我們正在嘗試做的是增加整體投資組合的盈利能力，我們正在通過改變 Skoal 的促銷組合來做到這一點。因此，當您將這兩個組成部分放在一起時，這就是您生產一年的原因，例如，您的收入增長超過 11% 是因為哥本哈根正在增長，而且因為 Skoal 的利潤更高。

But when I look at the 4Q market share for Cope, I mean, I understand the point about Skoal, but it was flat. And presumably, you'd like it to grow, not be flat.

但當我查看 Cope 第四季度的市場份額時，我的意思是，我理解 Skoal 的觀點，但它持平。大概，你希望它成長，而不是平坦。

It did. It grew 0.5 share point for the year, so that's why we try not to get too bound up in the quarter.

它做了。它今年增長了 0.5 個份額點，所以這就是為什麼我們盡量不要在本季度過於拘束。

And at this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill Marshall for closing comments.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉回給比爾馬歇爾先生以結束評論。

Thank you all for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please contact us at Investor Relations.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，請通過投資者關係聯繫我們。

And thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。