3M (MMM) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the 3M Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加 3M 第三季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Thursday, October 24, 2019.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2019 年 10 月 24 日星期四錄製。

I would now like to turn the call over to Bruce Jermeland, Vice President of Investor Relations at 3M.

我現在想將電話轉給 3M 投資者關係副總裁 Bruce Jermeland。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。

Welcome to our third quarter 2019 business review.

歡迎來到我們的 2019 年第三季度業務回顧。

With me today are Mike Roman, 3M's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Nick Gangestad, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我在一起的是 3M 的董事長兼首席執行官 Mike Roman；和我們的首席財務官 Nick Gangestad。

Mike and Nick will make some formal comments, and then we'll take your questions.

Mike 和 Nick 會發表一些正式的評論，然後我們會回答你的問題。

Today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call are posted on our Investor Relations website at 3m.com under the heading Quarterly Earnings.

此次電話會議隨附的今天的收益發布和幻燈片演示已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站 3m.com 的“季度收益”標題下。

Before we begin, let me remind you of the dates for our future investor events.

在開始之前，讓我提醒您我們未來投資者活動的日期。

Please turn to Slide 2. Our Q4 earnings conference call will be held on January 28, 2020.

請轉到幻燈片 2。我們的第四季度收益電話會議將於 2020 年 1 月 28 日舉行。

Please note, we will be providing our 2020 guidance during our January call.

請注意，我們將在 1 月份的電話會議期間提供 2020 年的指導。

As a result, we will not be having a 2020 outlook meeting later this year.

因此，我們將不會在今年晚些時候召開 2020 年展望會議。

Please take a moment to read the forward-looking statement on Slide 3. During today's conference call, we will make certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M's future performance and financial results.

請花點時間閱讀幻燈片 3 上的前瞻性陳述。在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出某些預測性陳述，以反映我們目前對 3M 未來業績和財務業績的看法。

These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述基於對受風險和不確定性影響的未來事件的某些假設和預期。

Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-K lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.

我們最近的 10-K 表格的第 1A 項列出了一些可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的最重要的風險因素。

Please note that throughout today's presentation, we will be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

請注意，在今天的演講中，我們將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of today's presentation and press release.

可以在今天的演示文稿和新聞稿的附錄中找到對非公認會計原則措施的調節。

Please turn to Slide 4, and I'll hand it off to Mike.

請翻到幻燈片 4，我會把它交給邁克。

Mike?

麥克風？

Thank you, Bruce.

謝謝你，布魯斯。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。

The 3M team executed well and delivered a strong operational performance in the third quarter, building on our progress in the second quarter.

在我們在第二季度取得進展的基礎上，3M 團隊在第三季度表現出色並取得了強勁的運營業績。

While the macroeconomic environment remains challenging, we continued to effectively manage costs, improve productivity and invest for the future.

儘管宏觀經濟環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們繼續有效管理成本、提高生產力並為未來投資。

We exceeded the cost savings plan that we laid out in April, at the same time reducing inventory by $180 million.

我們超出了 4 月份制定的成本節約計劃，同時減少了 1.8 億美元的庫存。

This is on top of the $250 million reduction in Q2.

這是在第二季度減少 2.5 億美元的基礎上進行的。

Our underlying margins were strong, and we generated robust free cash flow with a conversion rate of 106%.

我們的基本利潤率很高，我們產生了強勁的自由現金流，轉換率為 106%。

At the same time, we are making good progress on our 4 strategic priorities for value creation: portfolio, transformation, innovation and people and culture.

與此同時，我們在價值創造的 4 個戰略重點方面取得了良好進展：投資組合、轉型、創新以及人員和文化。

For example, 2 weeks ago, we finalized our acquisition of Acelity, which is an exciting addition to 3M's Health Care portfolio.

例如，兩週前，我們完成了對 Acelity 的收購，這是對 3M 醫療保健產品組合的一個令人興奮的補充。

In Q3, we also divested our gas and flame detection business and announced the sale of our ballistic protection business, all part of our ongoing effort to optimize our portfolio.

在第三季度，我們還剝離了我們的氣體和火焰檢測業務，並宣佈出售我們的彈道防護業務，這是我們不斷優化投資組合的一部分。

Later in today's call, I will also discuss our guidance for the full year and provide an update on PFAS.

在今天的電話會議稍後，我還將討論我們對全年的指導，並提供有關 PFAS 的最新信息。

Please turn to Slide 5 for a summary of our third quarter results.

請轉到幻燈片 5，查看我們第三季度業績的摘要。

Organic growth company-wide was minus 1%.

公司範圍內的有機增長為-1%。

We continue to face softness in certain end markets, namely China, automotive and electronics, which represent 30% of our company.

我們在某些終端市場繼續面臨疲軟，即中國、汽車和電子產品，這些市場占我們公司的 30%。

Growth in the rest of our business was positive, and we saw strength in end markets such as residential construction, medical and consumer retail, which Nick will discuss.

我們其他業務的增長是積極的，我們看到了住宅建築、醫療和消費零售等終端市場的實力，尼克將對此進行討論。

We also continue to see good returns from our investments in innovation, including the priority growth platforms we have shared with you in the past.

我們還繼續從我們的創新投資中看到良好的回報，包括我們過去與您共享的優先增長平台。

Year-to-date, these platforms are up 9% as we create differentiated solutions for customers in areas such as auto electrification, connected safety and structural adhesives.

年初至今，隨著我們在汽車電氣化、互聯安全和結構粘合劑等領域為客戶創造差異化解決方案，這些平台增長了 9%。

Turning to EPS.

轉向EPS。

We delivered GAAP earnings of $2.72 per share, a 5% increase year-over-year.

我們實現了每股 2.72 美元的 GAAP 收益，同比增長 5%。

Please note that this includes a $0.14 benefit from the Q3 divestiture that I talked about earlier.

請注意，這包括我之前談到的第三季度資產剝離帶來的 0.14 美元收益。

We generated underlying margins of 23.8%, with all business groups above 23%.

我們的基本利潤率為 23.8%，所有業務部門的利潤率均高於 23%。

For the second consecutive quarter, we improved our margins on a sequential basis while reducing inventory, which shows that our productivity actions are working.

連續第二個季度，我們在減少庫存的同時連續提高了利潤率，這表明我們的生產力措施正在發揮作用。

We also saw notable improvements in both EMEA and Canada, 2 areas where we have deployed our new business processes end to end.

我們還在 EMEA 和加拿大看到了顯著的改進，我們在這兩個領域端到端部署了新的業務流程。

In these areas, we are seeing improved margins, better use of data analytics, lower inventories and enhanced customer service, which gives us continued confidence in our ability to realize the benefits from our transformation journey.

在這些領域，我們看到了利潤率的提高、數據分析的更好利用、庫存的減少和客戶服務的增強，這使我們對實現轉型之旅收益的能力繼續充滿信心。

In summary, I'm pleased with our team's progress in the third quarter.

總之，我對我們團隊在第三季度的進展感到滿意。

I thank them for their efforts and continued focus as we move forward.

我感謝他們在我們前進的過程中所做的努力和持續的關注。

That wraps up my opening remarks.

我的開場白到此結束。

I will come back with some additional comments after Nick takes you through the details of the quarter.

在尼克帶您了解本季度的詳細信息後，我會回來提供一些額外的評論。

Nick?

缺口？

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，邁克，大家早上好。

I'll start on Slide 6 with a recap of our third quarter sales performance.

我將從幻燈片 6 開始，回顧一下我們第三季度的銷售業績。

Third quarter organic sales declined 1.3%.

第三季度有機銷售額下降 1.3%。

Volumes were down 160 basis points, while selling prices were up 30 basis points.

成交量下降了 160 個基點，而售價則上漲了 30 個基點。

The net impact of acquisitions and divestitures increased sales by 60 basis points, while foreign currency translation was a 130 basis point headwind to sales.

收購和剝離的淨影響使銷售額增加了 60 個基點，而外幣折算對銷售額造成了 130 個基點的阻力。

All in, third quarter sales in U.S. dollars declined 2% versus last year.

總而言之，第三季度以美元計算的銷售額比去年下降了 2%。

Looking at growth geographically, the U.S. declined 1% organically.

從地理上看，美國有機下降了 1%。

Consumer and Health Care each delivered solid growth in the quarter.

消費者和醫療保健在本季度均實現了穩健增長。

This was more than offset by declines in Safety and Industrial and Transportation and Electronics.

這被安全、工業、運輸和電子產品的下降所抵消。

These 2 businesses were impacted by weakness in end markets and channel inventory adjustments, which further softened as we moved through the quarter.

這兩項業務受到終端市場疲軟和渠道庫存調整的影響，隨著我們整個季度的發展，這種情況進一步減弱。

Asia Pacific declined 4% in Q3.

亞太地區第三季度下降 4%。

Japan's organic growth was up 3% with broad-based strength across most of our businesses.

日本的有機增長增長了 3%，我們大部分業務的基礎廣泛。

Organic growth was down 9% in China, driven by continued weakness in automotive, electronics and export-related markets.

由於汽車、電子和出口相關市場持續疲軟，中國的有機增長率下降了 9%。

For the year, we expect organic growth in China to be down mid-single digits.

今年，我們預計中國的有機增長將下降中個位數。

EMEA grew 2% with positive growth across all businesses.

EMEA 增長 2%，所有業務均實現正增長。

Latin America/Canada grew 3%, led by strong growth in Canada and Mexico.

拉丁美洲/加拿大增長 3%，主要得益於加拿大和墨西哥的強勁增長。

Please turn to Slide 7 for the third quarter P&L highlights.

請轉到幻燈片 7 了解第三季度的損益表亮點。

Company-wide, third quarter sales were $8 billion with operating income of $2 billion.

全公司第三季度銷售額為 80 億美元，營業收入為 20 億美元。

Operating margins were 25.2%, which included a 140 basis point benefit from the Q3 divestiture.

營業利潤率為 25.2%，其中包括第三季度剝離帶來的 140 個基點的收益。

Overall, I'm pleased that our actions to drive productivity continue to gain traction with strong underlying third quarter margins of nearly 24%.

總體而言，我很高興我們推動生產力的行動繼續獲得牽引力，第三季度的潛在利潤率接近 24%。

On the right-hand side of the slide, you can see the breakdown of our third quarter margin performance.

在幻燈片的右側，您可以看到我們第三季度利潤率表現的細分。

First, the biggest impact to Q3 margins was the year-on-year decline in organic volume, along with our actions to lower production volumes and reduce inventories to improve cash flow in the quarter.

首先，對第三季度利潤率的最大影響是有機產量的同比下降，以及我們降低產量和減少庫存以改善本季度現金流的行動。

Partially offsetting these headwinds were benefits from the restructuring actions taken in Q2 as well as net gains related to property sales.

第二季度採取的重組行動以及與房地產銷售相關的淨收益部分抵消了這些不利因素。

In total, these factors resulted in a 160 basis point reduction to margins versus last year's third quarter.

總的來說，這些因素導致利潤率與去年第三季度相比下降了 160 個基點。

Acquisitions and divestitures contributed a net 100 basis points to margins, primarily due to the gain from this quarter's divestiture, which was partially offset by the M*Modal acquisition.

收購和資產剝離為利潤率貢獻了 100 個基點，主要是由於本季度資產剝離帶來的收益，這部分被 M*Modal 收購所抵消。

Higher selling prices continued to more than offset raw material inflation, contributing 30 basis points to third quarter margins.

較高的售價繼續抵消了原材料通脹，為第三季度的利潤率貢獻了 30 個基點。

While selling prices came in a bit lower than expected, our sourcing efforts reduced raw material costs, resulting in a net benefit, which we expect to continue as we move forward.

雖然銷售價格略低於預期，但我們的採購努力降低了原材料成本，產生了淨收益，我們預計隨著我們的前進，這將繼續下去。

And finally, foreign currency net of hedging impacts increased margins by 80 basis points.

最後，扣除對沖影響的外幣利潤率提高了 80 個基點。

Let's now turn to Slide 8 for a closer look at earnings per share.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 8 來仔細看看每股收益。

Third quarter earnings were $2.72 per share, which included a $0.14 benefit from this quarter's divestiture.

第三季度每股收益為 2.72 美元，其中包括本季度剝離帶來的 0.14 美元收益。

Excluding this benefit, overall earnings were solid as the 3M team delivered strong operational performance.

不計此收益，由於 3M 團隊提供了強勁的運營業績，因此整體收益穩健。

Looking at the components of our year-on-year earnings performance, the net impact of organic growth, inventory reductions and the other items that I covered on the prior slide reduced third quarter per share earnings by $0.16.

從我們同比收益表現的組成部分來看，有機增長、庫存減少和我在上一張幻燈片中涵蓋的其他項目的淨影響使第三季度每股收益減少了 0.16 美元。

Acquisitions and divestitures combined increased third quarter earnings by $0.10 per share versus last year.

與去年相比，收購和資產剝離合計使第三季度每股收益增加了 0.10 美元。

Foreign currency net of hedging was an additional $0.05 per share tailwind in the quarter.

本季度扣除對沖的外匯淨額為每股額外增加 0.05 美元。

Our third quarter underlying tax rate contributed $0.08 to per share earnings year-on-year.

我們第三季度的基本稅率為每股收益同比貢獻了 0.08 美元。

The lower rate is primarily a function of last year's tax reform and the benefits it created for U.S.-based companies with a significant portion of their manufacturing in the U.S. And finally, we reduced average diluted shares outstanding by 2.6% versus Q3 last year, which added $0.07 to per share earnings.

較低的稅率主要是由於去年的稅收改革及其為美國公司在美國製造的大部分製造所帶來的好處最後，我們將平均攤薄流通股與去年第三季度相比減少了 2.6%，這每股收益增加 0.07 美元。

Please turn to Slide 9 for a look at our cash flow performance.

請轉到幻燈片 9 了解我們的現金流表現。

As Mike noted, we delivered very strong cash flow in the third quarter.

正如邁克所說，我們在第三季度提供了非常強勁的現金流。

Free cash flow was $1.7 billion with a conversion rate of 106%, which included a negative 27 percentage point combined impact from the Q3 divestiture and cash payouts of previously accrued respiratory-related legal settlements.

自由現金流為 17 億美元，轉換率為 106%，其中包括第三季度資產剝離和先前累積的呼吸相關法律和解的現金支付帶來的 27 個百分點的負綜合影響。

For the full year, as a result of increasing cash flow, we are raising our expectations for conversion to a range of 105% to 110% versus 95% to 105% previously.

對於全年，由於現金流量增加，我們將轉換預期從之前的 95% 到 105% 提高到 105% 到 110% 的範圍。

Third quarter capital expenditures were $349 million and remain on track to be in the range of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion for the year.

第三季度資本支出為 3.49 億美元，全年有望在 16 億美元至 17 億美元之間。

During the quarter, we paid $828 million in cash dividends to shareholders and returned $142 million to shareholders through growth share repurchases.

本季度，我們向股東支付了 8.28 億美元的現金股息，並通過增長股票回購向股東返還了 1.42 億美元。

Please turn to Slide 10, where I'll summarize the business group performance for Q3.

請轉到幻燈片 10，我將在其中總結第三季度業務組的表現。

I will start with our Safety and Industrial business, which declined 3.3% organically in the quarter.

我將從我們的安全和工業業務開始，該業務在本季度有機下降了 3.3%。

Similar to the first half of the year, we saw a continued end market softness and channel inventory reductions, which impacted most of our portfolio.

與今年上半年類似，我們看到終端市場持續疲軟和渠道庫存減少，這影響了我們的大部分產品組合。

Looking geographically, Safety and Industrial's organic growth was led by a 2% increase in EMEA and a 1% increase in Latin America/Canada, while the U.S. and Asia Pacific each declined.

從地域上看，歐洲、中東和非洲地區增長 2%，拉丁美洲/加拿大增長 1%，而美國和亞太地區均有所下降，引領安全和工業部門的有機增長。

Safety and Industrial's third quarter operating margins were 26.8%, which included a 3.9 percentage point benefit from the gas and flame detection divestiture.

安全與工業公司第三季度的營業利潤率為 26.8%，其中包括從氣體和火焰檢測剝離中獲得的 3.9 個百分點的收益。

Overall, underlying margins in this business were solid in the quarter when considering negative organic growth and inventory reductions.

總體而言，考慮到負有機增長和庫存減少，本季度該業務的基本利潤率穩健。

Moving to Transportation and Electronics.

轉向運輸和電子行業。

Third quarter sales were down 3.4% organically compared to last year.

與去年相比，第三季度有機銷售額下降了 3.4%。

The electronics-related businesses declined high single digits organically as demand remained soft in consumer electronics, semiconductor and factory automation end markets.

由於消費電子、半導體和工廠自動化終端市場的需求仍然疲軟，電子相關業務有機地下降了高個位數。

Our automotive OEM business was down 3%, in line with third quarter global car and light truck builds.

我們的汽車 OEM 業務下降了 3%，與第三季度全球汽車和輕型卡車的產量一致。

Advanced materials grew mid-single digits organically, while both transportation safety and commercial solutions each grew low single digits.

先進材料有機地增長了中個位數，而運輸安全和商業解決方案均增長了低個位數。

Geographically, Latin America/Canada grew 7%.

從地域上看，拉丁美洲/加拿大增長了 7%。

EMEA was up 1% organically, while the U.S. and Asia Pacific each declined mid-single digits.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區有機增長 1%，而美國和亞太地區均下降中個位數。

Transportation and Electronics third quarter operating margins were 25.2%, down 250 basis points.

運輸和電子第三季度的營業利潤率為 25.2%，下降 250 個基點。

Similar to Safety and Industrial, margins were impacted by lower sales and inventory reductions.

與安全和工業類似，利潤率受到銷售額下降和庫存減少的影響。

Turning to Health Care, the business delivered 2% organic growth in Q3.

轉向醫療保健，該業務在第三季度實現了 2% 的有機增長。

Organic growth was broad-based across most of our Health Care business.

我們的大部分醫療保健業務都有廣泛的有機增長。

Growth was led by a high single-digit increase in health information systems.

增長是由衛生信息系統的高個位數增長帶動的。

We continue to invest in this business, including this year's acquisition of M*Modal, which recently launched a new AI clinical documentation software that provides real-time insights to clinicians.

我們繼續投資這項業務，包括今年收購 M*Modal，該公司最近推出了一款新的 AI 臨床文檔軟件，可為臨床醫生提供實時洞察。

Medical solutions, our largest business in health care, was up low single digits in the quarter.

醫療解決方案是我們最大的醫療保健業務，在本季度增長了個位數。

We are excited to have Acelity joining this team, which Mike will cover shortly.

我們很高興 Acelity 加入這個團隊，Mike 將很快介紹這個團隊。

Food safety grew organically mid-single digits, with oral care up slightly.

食品安全有機增長中個位數，口腔護理略有增長。

Separation and purification was down mid-single digits primarily due to softness in China.

主要由於中國的疲軟，分離和純化下降了中個位數。

Looking geographically, Health Care grew across each area.

從地理上看，醫療保健在各個領域都有所增長。

Health Care's third quarter operating margins were 26.7%, impacted by 1.5 percentage points from the M*Modal acquisition.

醫療保健公司第三季度的營業利潤率為 26.7%，受到 M*Modal 收購的 1.5 個百分點的影響。

Also impacting margins were inventory reductions, Acelity acquisition-related costs and investments in priority growth platforms.

影響利潤率的還有庫存減少、Acelity 收購相關成本和對優先增長平台的投資。

Lastly, third quarter organic growth for our Consumer business was nearly 3%.

最後，我們消費者業務第三季度的有機增長接近 3%。

Sales were led by mid-single-digit growth in home improvement and low single-digit growth in consumer health care, while stationery and office and home care declined.

銷售由家居裝修的中個位數增長和消費者醫療保健的低個位數增長引領，而文具、辦公室和家庭護理則下降。

We saw continued strength in many of our leading brands, in particular, Filtrete, Command and Nexcare.

我們看到我們許多領先品牌的持續實力，特別是 Filtrete、Command 和 Nexcare。

Looking at Consumer geographically, EMEA, Latin America/Canada and the U.S. each grew low single digits while Asia Pacific declined.

從地域上看消費者，歐洲、中東和非洲、拉丁美洲/加拿大和美國均以低個位數增長，而亞太地區則有所下降。

Consumer's operating margins were 23.2% in the third quarter, up slightly year-over-year.

第三季度消費者的營業利潤率為 23.2%，同比略有上升。

That wraps up our review of third quarter results.

這結束了我們對第三季度業績的審查。

Please turn to Slide 11, and I'll hand it back over to Mike.

請翻到第 11 張幻燈片，我會把它交還給 Mike。

Mike?

麥克風？

Thank you, Nick.

謝謝你，尼克。

I would like to make a few comments about our acquisition of Acelity, which was finalized earlier this month.

我想就我們本月早些時候完成的收購 Acelity 發表一些評論。

We are excited as we bring together 2 innovative companies focused on improving health care outcomes for patients.

我們很高興將兩家專注於改善患者醫療保健結果的創新公司聚集在一起。

Acelity offers an impressive range of medical solutions, including their groundbreaking negative pressure wound therapy.

Acelity 提供一系列令人印象深刻的醫療解決方案，包括其開創性的負壓傷口治療。

They are an ideal fit within our Health Care portfolio, complementing our existing business and further accelerating 3M as a leader in advanced wound care, which is a significant and growing market.

它們非常適合我們的醫療保健產品組合，補充我們現有的業務，並進一步加速 3M 作為先進傷口護理領域的領導者，這是一個重要且不斷增長的市場。

Acelity has annual revenues of $1.5 billion.

Acelity 的年收入為 15 億美元。

And year-to-date, they have delivered organic growth of 5% and EBITDA growth of more than 10%.

年初至今，他們實現了 5% 的有機增長和 10% 以上的 EBITDA 增長。

We look forward to leveraging the fundamental strengths of 3M, especially our global reach and technologies, to build upon these results and drive even greater value.

我們期待利用 3M 的基本優勢，尤其是我們的全球影響力和技術，在這些成果的基礎上再接再厲，創造更大的價值。

We expect the acquisition to be $0.25 dilutive to GAAP EPS in the first 12 months or $0.35 accretive, excluding purchase accounting and anticipated onetime expenses related to the transaction.

我們預計收購將在前 12 個月對 GAAP 每股收益稀釋 0.25 美元或增加 0.35 美元，不包括購買會計和與交易相關的預期一次性費用。

We are pleased to welcome the talented people of Acelity to our 3M team and are confident in the value this acquisition will deliver to our customers and our shareholders.

我們很高興歡迎 Acelity 的優秀人才加入我們的 3M 團隊，並對此次收購將為我們的客戶和股東帶來的價值充滿信心。

Please turn to Slide 12, where I will discuss our guidance.

請轉到幻燈片 12，我將在其中討論我們的指導。

Today, we are updating our guidance to incorporate the Acelity acquisition along with our expectation of continued softness in China, automotive and electronics.

今天，我們正在更新我們的指引，將收購 Acelity 以及我們對中國、汽車和電子產品持續疲軟的預期納入其中。

With one quarter remaining in the year, we are providing our guidance for Q4.

今年還剩四分之一，我們正在為第四季度提供指導。

We anticipate earnings in the range of $2.05 to $2.15 and an organic sales decline of 1% to 3%.

我們預計收益在 2.05 美元至 2.15 美元之間，有機銷售額下降 1% 至 3%。

On this slide, you will also see our updated full year guidance for EPS and organic growth.

在這張幻燈片上，您還將看到我們更新的全年每股收益和有機增長指南。

Before turning to Q&A, I would like to make a few comments related to PFAS.

在轉向問答之前，我想就 PFAS 發表一些評論。

We continue to proactively manage this issue, and I would like to provide some specific updates of what we have done since our last earnings call.

我們將繼續主動管理這個問題，我想提供一些自上次財報電話會議以來我們所做工作的具體更新。

As you may know, in early September, we testified before a congressional subcommittee in Washington, D.C. We reminded the committee that the weight of scientific evidence does not show that PFAS cause adverse human health effects at current or historical levels, a position shared by public health agencies and independent science review panels.

如您所知，9 月初，我們在華盛頓特區的一個國會小組委員會作證 我們提醒委員會，科學證據的重要性並未表明 PFAS 在當前或歷史水平上對人類健康造成不利影響，公眾認同這一立場衛生機構和獨立的科學審查小組。

In our testimony, we also announced a number of commitments that build upon our existing efforts related to PFAS, including supporting new coordinated research into PFAS; establishing a clearinghouse to share best practices on detection, measurement and remediation; supporting nationwide science-based regulation; and continuing to work with former customers to help ensure that unused AFFF-containing PFOS is properly handled.

在我們的證詞中，我們還宣布了一些基於我們現有的與 PFAS 相關的努力的承諾，包括支持對 PFAS 進行新的協調研究；建立信息交換所，分享檢測、測量和補救方面的最佳實踐；支持以科學為基礎的全國性監管；並繼續與以前的客戶合作，以幫助確保正確處理未使用的含 AFFF 的 PFOS。

We also reaffirmed our commitment to ongoing remediation of our manufacturing facilities and historical disposal sites.

我們還重申了對我們的製造設施和歷史處置場進行持續整治的承諾。

With respect to litigation, the AFFF multi-district litigation is still in the early phases.

在訴訟方面，AFFF 跨區訴訟仍處於初期階段。

And at this time, no trials have been scheduled.

目前，還沒有安排任何試驗。

Outside of AFFF, the earliest we expect other product-related trials to begin would be in the spring of 2020.

除了 AFFF，我們預計其他與產品相關的試驗最早將在 2020 年春季開始。

Moving forward, we will continue to keep you updated as developments unfold.

展望未來，隨著事態發展，我們將繼續為您提供最新信息。

In summary, as I look across our company, I see the strength of the 3M model.

總之，縱觀我們公司，我看到了 3M 模式的優勢。

We have deep competitive advantages in our unique technology platforms, advanced manufacturing, global capabilities and leading brands.

我們在獨特的技術平台、先進的製造、全球能力和領先品牌方面擁有深厚的競爭優勢。

We also have experienced teams that know how to manage through macroeconomic slowdowns, which our businesses tend to see early.

我們還擁有經驗豐富的團隊，他們知道如何應對宏觀經濟放緩，而我們的業務往往很早就看到了這種情況。

In these situations, we put an even greater emphasis on improving our operational performance and reducing costs, enabling us to generate strong cash flow, as we did again in the third quarter.

在這種情況下，我們更加重視提高運營績效和降低成本，使我們能夠產生強勁的現金流，就像我們在第三季度所做的那樣。

And throughout the business cycle, we remain focused on winning with our customers and keeping them at the core of everything we do, a great strength at the heart of the 3M culture.

在整個商業周期中，我們始終專注於贏得客戶，並將他們作為我們所做一切的核心，這是 3M 文化核心的強大力量。

As a result, we are well positioned to lead out of this slowdown and deliver strong growth and premium returns as our markets recover.

因此，我們有能力在市場復甦時引領經濟放緩，並提供強勁的增長和溢價回報。

Thank you for your attention, and we will now take your questions.

感謝您的關注，我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Andrew Kaplowitz。

Mike or Nick, can you give us more color into your revenue guidance for Q4?

邁克或尼克，您能否在第四季度的收入指導中為我們提供更多色彩？

If you look at sales comps, they're reasonably close between Q3 and Q4.

如果您查看銷售比較，它們在第三季度和第四季度之間相當接近。

You're forecasting continued deceleration at the midpoint of your guide.

您在指南的中點預測持續減速。

So you're expecting some of your markets to still get worse in Q4, and could you give us some color by segment?

所以你預計你的一些市場在第四季度仍然會變得更糟，你能給我們一些細分的顏色嗎？

Are the biggest changes there in Safety and Industrial?

安全和工業領域的最大變化是什麼？

And then in Health Care, are you not going to reach the high end of your range?

然後在醫療保健領域，你不會達到你的範圍的高端嗎？

And how much of that is the China slowing that you mentioned?

你提到的中國經濟放緩有多少？

Yes, Andy.

是的，安迪。

I would say when you look at Q3 versus Q4, Q4 has a very similar dynamic to Q3.

我想說，當您查看 Q3 與 Q4 時，Q4 的動態與 Q3 非常相似。

And when you start with industrial production, GDP, they're pretty much in line quarter-to-quarter.

當你從工業生產開始時，GDP，它們幾乎每個季度都保持一致。

We, as I said in my remarks, are still anticipating some -- that slowing in China, automotive and electronics to continue through Q4 so that outlook continues to remain the same.

正如我在講話中所說，我們仍然預計中國、汽車和電子產品的放緩將持續到第四季度，因此前景將繼續保持不變。

I would say our view of Q4 is, on the top line, much like Q3 and with a range around it.

我想說的是，我們對第四季度的看法最重要的是，與第三季度非常相似，並且有一個範圍。

And then we are -- and our focus continues, as you expect, to focus on execution.

然後我們是 - 正如您所期望的那樣，我們的重點繼續放在執行上。

There are growth opportunities.

有成長機會。

That 70% that has positive growth in Q3, there are growth opportunities there so we're going to be pursuing those aggressively, and there are -- much of Health Care is part of that.

這 70% 在第三季度實現了正增長，那裡有增長機會，所以我們將積極追求這些機會，而且大部分醫療保健都是其中的一部分。

Okay, Mike.

好的，邁克。

And maybe shifting gears.

也許換檔。

Nick, can you give us more color on how you're thinking about all the moving pieces around margin?

尼克，你能給我們更多關於你是如何思考邊緣周圍所有移動部分的顏色嗎？

Obviously, good performance in the quarter.

顯然，本季度表現良好。

You had guided to around 23% in Q3, and you came in closer to 24% ex the divestiture.

您在第三季度引導至 23% 左右，而您在剝離前接近 24%。

So you talked about second half restructuring, currency, tailwind, lessening impact from -- into a destock and then you've got the transformation optimization ramping up.

所以你談到了下半年的重組、貨幣、順風、減少影響——到去庫存，然後你就加快了轉型優化。

So can you talk about which of these variables were better than expected?

那麼你能談談其中哪些變量比預期的要好嗎？

And if it's possible, could you give us some early color on how you're thinking about these variables into 2020?

如果可能的話，您能否給我們一些關於您如何考慮到 2020 年的這些變量的早期信息？

Okay, Andy.

好的，安迪。

Quite a bit you asked there.

你在那裡問了很多。

First of all, we are -- I am very pleased with our margin performance in Q3.

首先，我們 - 我對我們在第三季度的利潤率表現感到非常滿意。

When we strip out the gain on our divestiture, nearly 24%, and we're seeing productivity actions that we're taking gain traction.

當我們剔除資產剝離的收益時，將近 24%，我們看到我們正在採取的生產力行動獲得了牽引力。

And at the same time, we're continuing to lower our production volumes and inventories with our focus on improving cash flow.

與此同時，我們將繼續降低產量和庫存，重點是改善現金流。

So very pleased with that.

對此非常滿意。

Now when we look at what's going on in the margin performance itself in the quarter, there's about 150 basis points that we lay out that's negatively impacted from organic growth, inventory reductions and other items.

現在，當我們查看本季度利潤率表現本身的情況時，我們列出的大約 150 個基點受到有機增長、庫存減少和其他項目的負面影響。

And about 1/3 of that headwind is just directly related to the lower organic growth.

大約 1/3 的逆風與較低的有機增長直接相關。

And then the remaining 2/3 is tied in with our lower production, lowering our inventory levels and is partially being offset and being benefited by our restructuring actions, which are coming in exactly as we expected.

然後剩下的 2/3 與我們較低的產量相關，降低了我們的庫存水平，並且部分被我們的重組行動所抵消和受益，這些行動完全符合我們的預期。

And we also had a gain on the sale of some property that I'll just go into a little more depth on.

我們還從一些房產的銷售中獲得了收益，我將對此進行更深入的討論。

We continue to do -- have a portfolio process where we're reviewing our assets that we have in place looking for are they optimal and can we be moving to more cost-effective operations.

我們將繼續這樣做——有一個投資組合流程，我們正在審查我們現有的資產，尋找它們是否最佳，我們是否可以轉向更具成本效益的運營。

We continually do that.

我們不斷地這樣做。

In the third quarter, we consummated a transaction disposing of an office building that resulted in a net benefit of about 50 basis points to our margin or about between $0.06 and $0.07 per share.

在第三季度，我們完成了一項出售辦公樓的交易，為我們的利潤率帶來了約 50 個基點的淨收益，即每股約 0.06 美元至 0.07 美元。

So those are the main things going on in the quarter from a margin perspective.

因此，從利潤率的角度來看，這些是本季度發生的主要事情。

If I -- as far as next year, Andy, I think it's really too early.

如果我——就明年而言，安迪，我認為現在還為時過早。

We're still focused on delivering 2019.

我們仍然專注於交付 2019 年。

We'll give guidance on that in January.

我們將在一月份對此提供指導。

Our next question comes from the line of John Walsh with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Walsh。

I guess maybe going back to electronics and automotive markets, maybe even China as well.

我想可能會回到電子和汽車市場，甚至可能還會回到中國。

In the Q, you have the reported numbers.

在 Q 中，您有報告的數字。

You kind of gave us some direction on the local currency growth on the call, but are you actually seeing the second derivative start to improve in those end markets?

你在電話會議上給了我們一些關於當地貨幣增長的方向，但你真的看到這些終端市場的二階衍生品開始改善了嗎？

So if you look at some of the external data, electronic markets declined, have kind of stabilized at least where they are in terms of negatives and gotten a little bit better sequentially.

因此，如果您查看一些外部數據，電子市場下跌，至少在負面情況下已經穩定下來，並且順序有所好轉。

Auto could potentially flip next year as second derivative gets better.

隨著二階導數變得更好，汽車明年可能會翻轉。

But can you talk specifically to your businesses in those that touch those markets, what you saw in the quarter?

但是，您能否具體談談您在這些市場中的業務，您在本季度看到了什麼？

Sure, John.

當然，約翰。

Yes.

是的。

Just to maybe kind of look across all of those, starting with automotive.

只是為了看看所有這些，從汽車開始。

So automotive, the build rates are still negative.

所以汽車，建造率仍然是負的。

And actually, I would say, the projections -- they were worse than the projections, maybe a bit better than what we saw in the first half but still negative.

實際上，我想說的是預測——它們比預測更糟糕，可能比我們在上半年看到的要好一點，但仍然是負面的。

And so that was something that is an update to how we look at the second half of the year.

因此，這是我們對下半年的看法的更新。

I think we had a more conservative view of the overall projections, and so we were planning for this.

我認為我們對整體預測的看法更為保守，因此我們正在為此進行計劃。

We did see additional channel reactions to those negative build rates.

我們確實看到了對這些負構建率的額外渠道反應。

We had talked about in the Q2 call that we thought a majority of the channel response to the decline in automotive and electronics more broadly took place in the first half of the year, but we did see some additional adjustments, a big part of that in -- I would say in China, but more broadly than that as well.

我們在第二季度電話會議中談到，我們認為大部分渠道對汽車和電子產品下滑的反應發生在今年上半年，但我們確實看到了一些額外的調整，其中很大一部分是在——我會說在中國，但范圍更廣。

Electronics continued to be a drag in terms of the end markets.

電子產品繼續拖累終端市場。

They were negative growth as well.

它們也是負增長。

There are some signs out there that people are optimistic it's going to improve.

有一些跡象表明人們樂觀地認為它會有所改善。

We saw some early indications that semiconductors is looking like it might start to improve.

我們看到了一些早期跡象，表明半導體看起來可能會開始改善。

Certainly, there's been some consumer electronics OEMs and brands that have talked about increasing sales.

當然，也有一些消費電子 OEM 和品牌商談論增加銷售額。

We've yet to see that necessarily play through the supply chain for us but it's -- I think the Q3, Q4, what I said earlier to Andy's comment, we see auto, electronics and China kind of in line between Q3 and Q4.

我們還沒有看到這必然會在我們的供應鏈中發揮作用，但它是 - 我認為第三季度、第四季度，正如我之前對安迪的評論所說的那樣，我們看到汽車、電子產品和中國在第三季度和第四季度之間保持一致。

So we haven't seen that -- what you'll call a bottom and an upturn yet, although there are some signs in the electronics side anyway that there's an outlook for improvement coming.

所以我們還沒有看到 - 你會稱之為底部和好轉，儘管電子方面有一些跡象表明有改善的前景。

Okay.

好的。

And then, I guess, as we think about at least the acquisitions -- and I know you don't want to get into next year, but maybe we can talk about the underlying you're seeing in the back half this year.

然後，我想，當我們至少考慮收購時——我知道你不想進入明年，但也許我們可以談談你在今年下半年看到的潛在因素。

Obviously, M*Modal will flip from being a headwind to a tailwind based on your prior guidance for that business.

顯然，根據您之前對該業務的指導，M*Modal 將從逆風轉變為順風。

We have Acelity coming in.

我們有 Acelity 進來。

But can you talk about the underlying Health Care business either in terms of incrementals if you were to take out all the noise?

但是，如果您要消除所有噪音，您能否以增量的方式談論潛在的醫療保健業務？

Are you seeing anything different than history?

你有沒有看到與歷史不同的東西？

Or maybe just help us understand what's going on there on an underlying basis.

或者也許只是幫助我們從根本上了解那裡正在發生的事情。

John, just to clarify, are you talking about growth or margin when you're saying that?

約翰，澄清一下，你說的是增長還是利潤？

Oh, sorry, on the margin side.

哦，對不起，在邊緣方面。

On the margin side because there's going to be a lot of noise in that margin number, particularly on Q4 with the acquisition dilution.

在邊際方面，因為該邊際數字中會有很多噪音，特別是在第四季度收購稀釋。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for clarifying that, John.

感謝您澄清這一點，約翰。

So what we're seeing in Health Care from a year-on-year margin performance, the biggest thing, as I said earlier, is coming from our M*Modal acquisition.

因此，我們從醫療保健行業的同比利潤率表現中看到，正如我之前所說，最重要的是來自我們對 M*Modal 的收購。

And yes, that will start to flip next year.

是的，這將在明年開始翻轉。

Other things going on there, we're continuing to invest in a number of priority growth platforms.

那裡發生的其他事情，我們將繼續投資於一些優先增長平台。

Those are a number of growth platforms that you've seen us lay out, and Health Care has a disproportionate amount of those and we continue to invest in that.

這些是您已經看到我們佈局的許多增長平台，而醫療保健擁有不成比例的數量，我們將繼續對此進行投資。

We -- also in the current quarter is some investments we're making as we get ready for the Acelity -- as we were getting ready for the Acelity acquisition.

我們 - 在本季度也是我們正在為 Acelity 做準備的一些投資 - 因為我們正在為 Acelity 的收購做準備。

That's part of that.

這是其中的一部分。

Just from a historical standpoint, you know we in -- we reorganized this business earlier this year and added our separation and purification business to be part of this.

從歷史的角度來看，你知道我們在今年早些時候重組了這項業務，並增加了我們的分離和純化業務。

And I think, John, you know we restated and shared what those were.

我想，約翰，你知道我們重申並分享了這些內容。

On a restated basis for last year and the year before that, the Health Care business was operating on about a 28% operating income margin.

在重述去年和前一年的基礎上，醫療保健業務的營業利潤率約為 28%。

Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Maybe just starting with the Health Care division, not so much on the margin side which I think you clarified, but maybe organic growth.

也許只是從醫療保健部門開始，而不是我認為你澄清的邊際方面，但可能是有機增長。

So I think the organic growth year-to-date in Health Care is running at about 2% or so.

所以我認為今年迄今為止醫療保健領域的有機增長大約在 2% 左右。

Just wondered, when you're looking at that maybe over the next 12 months, what are you expecting to accelerate that number?

只是想知道，當你在接下來的 12 個月裡看到這個數字時，你期望什麼會加速這個數字？

And related to it, separation and purification rolled over.

與此相關的，分離和提純翻了個身。

It sounded like having been flattish in Q2.

聽起來第二季度一直很平淡。

How long do you expect that downturn to last?

你預計這種低迷會持續多久？

And maybe tied to Health Care, the Acelity GAAP dilution has shrunk a bit versus what you'd said at the time of the deal.

可能與醫療保健有關，與您在交易時所說的相比，Acelity GAAP 稀釋度有所縮小。

What drove that?

是什麼推動了它？

So Julian, I would start with just this remains a very attractive business.

所以朱利安，我會從這仍然是一個非常有吸引力的業務開始。

The end markets are very attractive with some strong growth trends.

終端市場非常有吸引力，具有一些強勁的增長趨勢。

The demographics play well here.

人口統計在這裡發揮得很好。

So as we look forward, we see that as a strong growth driver for us.

因此，展望未來，我們認為這是我們強大的增長動力。

If you look in the quarter, the 2% growth, it was positive across nearly all of Health Care, and it was led by good growth again in health information systems.

如果你看一下本季度 2% 的增長，幾乎所有醫療保健領域都是積極的，這主要得益於衛生信息系統的良好增長。

And food safety, strong growers.

和食品安全，強大的種植者。

Medical solution was up low single digits.

醫療解決方案上漲了個位數。

The headwind that we faced was separation and purification, as you talked about, and that was primarily due to elevated channel inventories in a few areas of the world, and one of those is China where we have a significant separation and purification business.

正如您所說，我們面臨的逆風是分離和純化，這主要是由於世界上一些地區的渠道庫存增加，其中之一是我們在中國擁有重要的分離和純化業務。

So that was the headwind.

所以這是逆風。

We did have -- both drug delivery and oral care were up slightly in the quarter, and we expect drug delivery to continue to improve sequentially as we go forward.

我們確實有——本季度的藥物輸送和口腔護理均略有上升，我們預計隨著我們的發展，藥物輸送將繼續改善。

And oral care continues to grow strongly globally.

口腔護理在全球範圍內繼續強勁增長。

We saw some softness in the U.S., and we think the strength globally will carry us to better growth as we move ahead.

我們在美國看到了一些疲軟，我們認為隨著我們的前進，全球的實力將使我們實現更好的增長。

So the overall markets of strong portfolio and the medical solutions business getting stronger with the integration of Acelity.

因此，隨著 Acelity 的整合，強大的產品組合和醫療解決方案業務的整體市場變得更加強大。

By the way, the results in health information are reflecting some of the early synergies that we're getting from our M*Modal acquisition, bringing those teams together.

順便說一句，健康信息的結果反映了我們從 M*Modal 收購中獲得的一些早期協同效應，將這些團隊聚集在一起。

That's really starting to play out in the market for us as well with our customers.

對於我們以及我們的客戶來說，這真的開始在市場上發揮作用。

So I think we do see it improving as we go into next year.

所以我認為我們確實看到它在進入明年時有所改善。

And Julian, in regards to the improved guidance that we're giving in regards to Acelity, we had previously said that in the first 12 months, we expected it to be $0.35 dilutive to GAAP earnings, and we now expect it to be $0.25 dilutive in the first 12 months to GAAP earnings.

朱利安，關於我們提供的關於 Acelity 的改進指導，我們之前曾說過，在前 12 個月，我們預計它將對 GAAP 收益稀釋 0.35 美元，我們現在預計它會稀釋 0.25 美元前 12 個月的 GAAP 收益。

That $0.10 better EPS impact is primarily related to lower-than-expected financing costs.

每股收益提高 0.10 美元主要與低於預期的融資成本有關。

We saw interest rates from the time we announced that to when we actually obtained that financing improve.

從我們宣布這一點到我們實際獲得融資時，我們看到利率有所改善。

That's one piece and the most significant piece.

這是一件，也是最重要的一件。

We also are seeing better-than-expected EBITDA projections for that business than we were assuming back in May when we announced this deal.

我們還看到，該業務的 EBITDA 預測好於我們在 5 月份宣布這筆交易時的假設。

That's good to hear.

聽起來還不錯。

Maybe one quick follow-up, switching tack, just looking at the firm-wide P&L for Q3.

也許是一個快速的跟進，轉換策略，只看第三季度公司範圍的損益表。

Very good performance on SG&A to sales coming in at 18%.

SG&A 的表現非常好，銷售額達到 18%。

Just wondered how much you thought that was sort of variable cost or something temporary like currency affecting that number or that ratio and how much is related to fixed cost reduction efforts that, Mike, you've been putting in place in the last 12 months and whether that sort of lower SG&A to sales run rate may be sustainable.

只是想知道你認為這是多少可變成本或某種暫時的東西，比如影響該數字或比率的貨幣，以及與邁克，你在過去 12 個月中一直在實施的固定成本削減工作有多大關係，並且這種較低的 SG&A 與銷售運行率是否可持續。

The -- if I look at this year-on-year, third quarter last year to third quarter this year, we're down about 80 basis points year-on-year.

- 如果我看一下去年第三季度到今年第三季度的同比數據，我們同比下降了大約 80 個基點。

That's a combination of a couple of things.

這是幾件事的結合。

First of all, FX is not having a very material impact on that on -- as a percent of revenue because it affects both the numerator and the denominator.

首先，外匯對收入的百分比沒有非常實質性的影響，因為它影響分子和分母。

Not a big change there.

那裡變化不大。

The 2 biggest things, Julian, that are impacting that, one is the restructuring actions that we took in second quarter.

朱利安影響最大的兩件事，一是我們在第二季度採取的重組行動。

We're seeing that benefit.

我們看到了這種好處。

The second -- and that I would see as sustained.

第二個——我認為這是持續的。

The other thing that's impacting that is the gain we had on the sale of the building that I mentioned earlier.

影響這的另一件事是我們在出售我之前提到的建築物時獲得的收益。

That will not be a repeated action.

那不會是重複的動作。

It's about half and half.

大約是一半一半。

And Julian, I would just add.

還有朱利安，我想補充一下。

As Nick said, we're executing well against our plan for the restructuring actions.

正如尼克所說，我們的重組行動計劃執行得很好。

Our teams are also responding to the dynamics that we see in the market, and I think you see good operational and cost discipline as part of every business.

我們的團隊也在對我們在市場上看到的動態做出反應，我認為您將良好的運營和成本紀律視為每項業務的一部分。

So those are both playing through.

所以這些都在發揮作用。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Andrew Obin。

Just a question, sort of another broad question on growth as we think auto probably will remain a headwind specifically North America even if China bottoms into 2020.

只是一個問題，有點像另一個關於增長的廣泛問題，因為我們認為即使中國在 2020 年觸底，汽車可能仍將是一個逆風，特別是北美。

Just wondering, what kind of set of macro assumptions do we need for 3M to grow top line organically in 2020 overall?

只是想知道，我們需要什麼樣的宏觀假設才能讓 3M 在 2020 年整體實現有機增長？

I'm not asking for your forecast, but if you could just outline what's the baseline macro scenario that gets 3M growing in 2020.

我不是在問你的預測，但如果你能概述一下 3M 在 2020 年增長的基本宏觀情景是什麼。

Yes.

是的。

Andrew, I'm probably not ready to give the forecast, but I would say what you talked through, just automotive and electronics, and you think about broader across what we've been talking about in our businesses, absent a recession and -- or some other major downturn in the markets in 2020, we expect to have positive growth across the company.

安德魯，我可能還沒有準備好給出預測，但我想說的是你所說的，只是汽車和電子產品，你會更廣泛地考慮我們在業務中一直在談論的內容，沒有經濟衰退和 -或 2020 年市場出現其他重大低迷，我們預計整個公司將實現正增長。

You'll see, at least in a year-over-year comparable improvement, less headwinds in automotive and electronics.

你會看到，至少在與去年同期相比的可比改進中，汽車和電子產品的逆風減少了。

As I talked about earlier, we're seeing some early signs that we might have some upside in electronics going forward.

正如我之前所說，我們看到一些早期跡象表明我們可能會在電子產品方面取得一些進展。

That has to play out yet.

那還得上演。

I -- we are focused on Q4, and Q4 will tell us a lot about what to expect certainly in early 2020.

我——我們專注於第四季度，第四季度將告訴我們很多關於 2020 年初肯定會發生的事情。

But absent a recession, we expect to have positive growth.

但如果沒有衰退，我們預計會有正增長。

And just a follow-up on electronics.

只是對電子產品的跟進。

Historically, you guys have been very good at calling out electronics a lot better than other suppliers into the industry.

從歷史上看，你們在電子產品方面做得比其他供應商要好得多。

It seems it was one area of the shortfall in the quarter.

這似乎是本季度短缺的一個領域。

Can you give us more specifics as to what subsegments within electronics end market -- and I'm looking at one of the slides where you give the full-blown disclosure.

您能否向我們詳細說明電子終端市場中的細分市場 - 我正在查看您提供全面披露的幻燈片之一。

What specific end markets or products drove deceleration this quarter versus previous quarter?

與上一季度相比，哪些特定的終端市場或產品推動了本季度的減速？

I mean Slide 18.

我的意思是幻燈片 18。

I'm referring to Slide 18.

我指的是幻燈片 18。

Yes.

是的。

I'll talk about the 4 end markets in electronics broadly that are -- that we talk about when we talk about driving our growth.

我將廣泛地討論電子產品的 4 個終端市場——當我們談論推動我們的增長時，我們會談論這些市場。

Consumer electronics, we saw softness in that, continue to come through in Q3.

消費電子產品，我們看到了疲軟，在第三季度繼續出現。

Factory automation, there's no sign that that's turning around at this point, and that also remains soft.

工廠自動化，目前還沒有跡象表明情況正在好轉，而且仍然很軟。

Auto electrification, we saw lower build rates in Q3 in automotive electrification-related platforms and makes and models, and so that was impacted by the overall auto build rate.

汽車電氣化方面，我們看到第三季度汽車電氣化相關平台、品牌和型號的建造率較低，因此受到整體汽車建造率的影響。

And so that -- we still had some growth in our auto electrification portfolio but not as strong as we'd seen earlier in the year.

因此——我們的汽車電氣化產品組合仍有一些增長，但不如我們今年早些時候看到的那麼強勁。

And then semiconductor, I would say it declined into the quarter.

然後是半導體，我會說它在本季度有所下降。

But as I said, there may be some early signs that we'll see that pick up as we go forward.

但正如我所說，可能有一些早期跡象表明，隨著我們的前進，我們會看到這種回升。

So that's kind of the view of the 4. So really 3 of them are -- were soft in the quarter, and our frame is to -- that's the outlook for Q4 as well.

這就是這 4 家公司的看法。所以他們中的 3 家公司在本季度表現疲軟，我們的框架是——這也是第四季度的前景。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫圖薩。

So given you weren't going to do the kind of year-end meeting, will there be a point where you guys kind of -- it just seems to me like a lot has changed since we last kind of sat down and walked through the strategy like a little less than a year ago.

因此，鑑於你們不打算參加那種年終會議，你們會不會有一點——在我看來，自從我們上次坐下來走過策略就像不到一年前一樣。

Will there be a time here in the next 6 months or so and certainly in the context of like maybe what you might learn on the PFAS front, where we'll kind of all get together and reset kind of the long-term view?

在接下來的 6 個月左右的時間裡，是否會有一段時間，當然，在你可能會在 PFAS 方面學到的東西的背景下，我們會聚在一起，重新設定長期的觀點？

Or are you still of the view that it's steady as she goes, there's really no change to kind of the longer-term framework and algorithm you provided last fall or winter, whenever that was, in Minnesota?

或者你是否仍然認為它是穩定的，你去年秋天或冬天在明尼蘇達州提供的長期框架和算法真的沒有改變嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Steve, certainly, the first year of our 5-year plan hasn't turned out as we anticipated given the slowdown in those key end markets we've been talking about.

史蒂夫，當然，鑑於我們一直在談論的那些關鍵終端市場的放緩，我們 5 年計劃的第一年並沒有像我們預期的那樣實現。

We do have -- parts of our 5-year plan that are, just as a reminder, are doing well.

我們確實有——我們的 5 年計劃的部分內容，提醒一下，做得很好。

We're on strong -- we're on track for strong performance in free cash flow conversion and return on invested capital, but you're talking about growth when we look at growth in the outlook.

我們表現強勁——我們有望在自由現金流轉換和投資資本回報方面取得強勁表現，但當我們看到前景增長時，你正在談論增長。

Our Q4 earnings calls, where we'll give an outlook for next year, which is really the next indicator of where we are to get back on track with the longer 5-year plan, I think we are taking the right actions.

我們將在第四季度財報電話會議上給出明年的展望，這確實是我們將在更長的 5 年計劃中重回正軌的下一個指標，我認為我們正在採取正確的行動。

I think it's early to -- today to give an update on the 5-year plan, but we'll be looking for the right time to do that as we come out of our guide for next year.

我認為今天就 5 年計劃進行更新還為時過早，但我們將在明年的指南中找到合適的時間來做這件事。

Okay.

好的。

So there's no like -- you're still kind of, hey, we'll see what happens here and we may or may not reset that.

所以沒有像 - 你仍然有點，嘿，我們會看看這裡會發生什麼，我們可能會或可能不會重置它。

I mean is there a chance that you'd look at that?

我的意思是你有機會看那個嗎？

Or is there basically no chance, that this is basically just a cyclical element in your first year and you'll assume everything kind of bounces back?

或者基本上沒有機會，這基本上只是你第一年的一個週期性因素，你會假設一切都會反彈？

We're always looking at the long-term plan versus what we see in the markets.

我們一直在關注長期計劃與我們在市場上看到的情況。

And I think as we get a better view of 2020, we'll incorporate that and then we'll come back to you.

我認為，當我們對 2020 年有了更好的了解時，我們會將其納入其中，然後再與您聯繫。

Okay.

好的。

And then just one last thing on kind of the leverage, the core underlying leverage.

然後是關於槓桿的最後一件事，即核心基礎槓桿。

I mean I appreciate you guys had some pretty significant inventory headwinds.

我的意思是，我很欣賞你們遇到了一些相當大的庫存逆風。

It still seems to me, especially with the property sale, that there's a bigger decremental kind of volume impact even when you strip out the impact with inventories.

在我看來，尤其是在房地產銷售方面，即使你剔除庫存的影響，也會對數量產生更大的遞減影響。

Is there anything that kind of changes that over the next couple of years?

在接下來的幾年裡，有什麼變化嗎？

Or are you guys spending more than you would otherwise be spending in kind of a tougher environment?

或者你們在更艱難的環境中花費的錢是否比你在其他情況下花費的更多？

I mean how do we think about the type of growth you guys need to have that kind of 40% incremental margin -- or some real leverage on the margin as things come back up?

我的意思是，我們如何看待你們需要擁有 40% 增量利潤率的增長類型——或者隨著事情的回升，對利潤率的一些真正槓桿作用？

Because it looks to me like the decremental leverage just remains a little bit tough when you strip out everything but volumes.

因為在我看來，當您剔除除交易量之外的所有內容時，遞減槓桿仍然有點困難。

Yes, Steve.

是的，史蒂夫。

When -- part of our year-on-year comparison is we're, as you noted, aggressively pulling out inventory out of our own supply chain.

什麼時候 - 正如您所指出的，我們的同比比較的一部分是，我們正在積極地將庫存從我們自己的供應鏈中撤出。

We're estimating year-on-year that's having a 150 to 200 basis point negative impact on our margins.

我們估計同比對我們的利潤率產生 150 到 200 個基點的負面影響。

So to partly answer your question, reaching a point of more stability on our amount of inventory in production that we have in our supply chain, that in itself is in the future going to start to create some of the tailwind to us when we've depleted that inventory out.

因此，為了部分回答您的問題，使我們在供應鏈中的生產庫存量達到一個更加穩定的點，這本身在未來將開始為我們創造一些順風，當我們已經耗盡了庫存。

And by the way, we -- in our guidance here, we are estimating that we're going to take about another $50 million of inventory out of our supply chain in the fourth quarter.

順便說一句，我們在這裡的指導中估計，我們將在第四季度從我們的供應鏈中再減少約 5000 萬美元的庫存。

Okay.

好的。

And then one last quick one on price cost.

然後是關於價格成本的最後一個快速的。

Is that materials benefit, that's kind of like detached from volume, right?

那是材料的好處嗎，這有點像脫離了體積，對吧？

So like if volume goes down, obviously, your materials are going to go down.

所以就像如果數量下降，很明顯，你的材料會下降。

Or is that -- how does that kind of reflect that dynamic?

或者是——這種情況如何反映這種動態？

Just remind me -- just remind us of that.

提醒我——提醒我們這一點。

Yes, that's detached from volume.

是的，這與音量無關。

That's looking at what we're getting from prices versus what we're paying for our raw materials, and we really don't factor in a volume component to that.

這是著眼於我們從價格中獲得的收益與我們為原材料支付的價格，我們實際上並沒有將數量因素考慮在內。

Our next question comes from the line of John Inch with Gordon Haskett.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Inch 和 Gordon Haskett 的觀點。

I just want to pick up on the point of the year-end meeting.

我只是想談談年終會議的要點。

Is this just a suspension for this year based on economy or influx?

這只是基於經濟或湧入的今年暫停嗎？

Or is this permanently you're not going to hold these anymore?

或者這是永久的，您將不再持有這些？

And if so, I'm actually curious, how do we get our gift bag of stocking stuffers?

如果是這樣，我真的很好奇，我們如何獲得我們的長襪禮品袋？

Well, John, it's definitely -- we think it's the right thing to do this year so we have really a clear view of what we saw in the quarter as we start the year.

好吧，約翰，這絕對是 - 我們認為這是今年做的正確事情，所以我們對今年開始時在本季度看到的情況有一個清晰的認識。

We think we can give a better outlook at the earnings call.

我們認為我們可以在財報電話會議上給出更好的前景。

We did it last year, too, and the dynamic was similar.

我們去年也這樣做了，而且動態是相似的。

We saw changes in the end markets coming, and we thought it was a better place to give, I think, just better quality outlook for the year.

我們看到終端市場即將發生變化，我們認為這是一個更好的地方，我認為，今年只有更好的質量前景。

So we're going to do it again this year.

所以今年我們要再做一次。

Yes, I don't disagree.

是的，我不反對。

Honestly, November last year was a little early just based on the way things were fluctuating.

老實說，僅基於事情的波動方式，去年 11 月還早了一點。

So it's not really that much of a surprise.

所以這並不是什麼大驚喜。

I do want to ask you, though, the U.S. did seem to step down in the quarter kind of versus the trajectory, and not sure that we're hearing that really from other companies.

不過，我確實想問你，美國似乎確實在本季度與軌跡相反，並且不確定我們是否真的從其他公司那裡聽到了這一點。

So I'm curious kind of what's your read, Mike and Nick, on the U.S. What kind of got worse?

所以我很好奇你讀到了什麼，邁克和尼克，關於美國的什麼變得更糟了？

Was there some inventory?

有存貨嗎？

Is this transitory?

這是暫時的嗎？

Or what's kind of going on in the underlying?

或者底層發生了什麼？

And Asia also seemed to get a little worse, too.

亞洲似乎也變得更糟了。

But I think you sort of explained that with the additional inventory step-down that kind of occurred in some of those end markets.

但我想你有點解釋說，隨著一些終端市場出現額外的庫存下降，這種情況發生了。

But what's going on in the U.S.?

但是在美國發生了什麼？

Sure, John.

當然，約翰。

IPI -- as I said earlier, IPI is kind of similar Q3 to Q4 worldwide.

IPI——正如我之前所說，IPI 在全球範圍內類似於 Q3 到 Q4。

But the U.S., we saw a significant decline in IPI and a revision down into third quarter, and Q4 actually is projected to go negative.

但在美國，我們看到 IPI 顯著下降並向下修正到第三季度，而第四季度實際上預計為負數。

So you're seeing a broader impact on industrial production, broader manufacturing.

因此，您會看到對工業生產、更廣泛的製造業的更廣泛影響。

We're certainly seeing that, and that's impacting our Safety and Industrial business.

我們當然看到了這一點，這正在影響我們的安全和工業業務。

Our auto business is certainly caught up in that.

我們的汽車業務肯定會受到影響。

We have good growth areas in much of Health Care.

我們在許多醫療保健領域都有良好的增長領域。

There are some segments -- consumer and retail spending continues to be strong in the U.S., and there are some other segments like construction, where we've seen significant growth opportunities.

有一些細分市場——美國的消費者和零售支出繼續強勁，還有一些其他細分市場，如建築業，我們已經看到了巨大的增長機會。

But that broader industrial manufacturing set of markets is weighing on the U.S. results.

但更廣泛的工業製造市場正在影響美國的業績。

And then we saw -- with that slowdown, we saw additional channel actions in the quarter.

然後我們看到——隨著經濟放緩，我們在本季度看到了額外的渠道行動。

And so that was part of what you saw coming through our numbers, especially our Safety and Industrial business.

這就是你從我們的數據中看到的一部分，尤其是我們的安全和工業業務。

And I'm assuming -- I mean, obviously, we all read -- saw the September, I assume, print.

我假設——我的意思是，很明顯，我們都讀過——我假設看到了九月的印刷品。

I'm assuming everything you've seen thus far in October does -- is the trend since September kind of more or less the same with respect to the United States?

我假設你在 10 月份到目前為止所看到的一切都是如此——自 9 月份以來的趨勢在美國方面是否或多或少相同？

Or is there any other difference thus far?

或者到目前為止還有其他區別嗎？

I realize that's -- we still got another week to go but...

我意識到那是-我們還有一周的時間，但是...

Well, I would say that as we've talked in the past, channel tends to react pretty quickly.

好吧，我想說的是，正如我們過去所說，頻道往往會很快做出反應。

So we -- it's early days in October.

所以我們 - 現在是 10 月的早期。

We'll see if there's additional reaction there.

我們將看看那裡是否有其他反應。

But I think I would say what I said earlier, that Q4 and Q3 kind of in line and October starting out as expected.

但我想我會說我之前所說的，第四季度和第三季度有點一致，10 月份按預期開始。

And then just lastly, Nick, on the $0.35 of Acelity accretion, how much -- like how should we spread that?

最後，尼克，關於 0.35 美元的 Acelity 增值，多少錢——比如我們應該如何傳播它？

There's obviously going to be some in the fourth quarter through the next 4 quarters.

在接下來的四個季度中，第四季度顯然會有一些。

How would you spread that?

你會如何傳播它？

And then what about the restructuring savings that we took in the second quarter from those actions?

那麼我們在第二季度從這些行動中獲得的重組節省又如何呢？

How much hit the third quarter?

第三季度打了多少？

And how would you expect again sequentially the restructuring savings from your second quarter actions to play out?

您將如何再次預期第二季度行動帶來的重組節省會如何發揮作用？

So the restructuring savings, just as a reminder, we expected an annualized benefit of $225 million to $250 million, where we expect $110 million of that to be -- impact the second half of this year.

因此，作為提醒，我們預計重組節省的年度收益為 2.25 億美元至 2.5 億美元，我們預計其中 1.1 億美元會影響今年下半年。

And that's playing out as we expected, and it's almost evenly split between Q3 and Q4.

這正如我們預期的那樣，在第三季度和第四季度之間幾乎平分秋色。

And then the balance of that, we expect to hit in the -- to benefit the first half of 2020.

然後是平衡，我們預計將在 2020 年上半年受益。

That's in regards to the restructuring.

這是關於重組的。

As far as Acelity, and now you're on to -- you're not talking about the GAAP impact but now from a $0.35.

就 Acelity 而言，現在您正在討論 - 您不是在談論 GAAP 的影響，而是現在從 0.35 美元開始。

Once we exclude the purchase accounting and the transaction and the integration costs, we expect that a large chunk of that is going to be hitting in Q4.

一旦我們排除了採購會計、交易和整合成本，我們預計其中很大一部分將在第四季度出現。

Right now, all we've guided, we expect about $0.15 on a GAAP basis.

目前，根據我們的指導，我們預計在 GAAP 基礎上約為 0.15 美元。

But on a non-GAAP basis, we're not providing guidance yet.

但在非公認會計原則的基礎上，我們還沒有提供指導。

But of that $0.35, we will be seeing -- we'll be seeing that more evenly spread over the next 4 quarters.

但是在這 0.35 美元中，我們將看到 - 我們將看到在接下來的 4 個季度中更均勻地分佈。

Maybe the point is through fourth quarter, what -- how much of the fourth quarter then is Acelity?

也許關鍵是到第四季度，那麼第四季度有多少是 Acelity？

Is that $0.15 of your fourth quarter guidance?

那是你第四季度指導的 0.15 美元嗎？

Yes.

是的。

In -- from a GAAP perspective, it's a $0.15 headwind to us in the fourth quarter and then another $0.10 headwind in the first 3 quarters of 2020.

從公認會計原則的角度來看，第四季度對我們來說是 0.15 美元的逆風，然後是 2020 年前三個季度的 0.10 美元的逆風。

Yes.

是的。

John, just to be clear, that is included in our guidance.

約翰，為了清楚起見，這包含在我們的指導中。

Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。

I'd like to circle back.

我想繞回去。

I know inventory has come up multiple times during this call, but maybe you can just clarify the interplay here.

我知道在這次電話會議期間庫存已經多次出現，但也許你可以在這裡澄清相互作用。

You're referring to customer channel inventory adjustments, and we've seen this multiple quarters now.

您指的是客戶渠道庫存調整，我們現在已經看到了多個季度。

You called it out with Safety and Industrial just because of lower demand.

僅僅因為需求較低，您就將其與安全和工業聯繫起來。

It gets reflected in your organic revenue growth, so we get that.

它反映在您的有機收入增長中，所以我們明白了。

But then as 3M, you're also taking inventory down.

但是作為 3M，你也在減少庫存。

You did $180 million this quarter.

你本季度賺了 1.8 億美元。

You said there's another $50 million.

你說還有5000萬美元。

The interplay between the 2, how -- what inventory are you actually taking down?

兩者之間的相互作用，您實際上要減少哪些庫存？

Is this all a result of lower customer demand?

這都是客戶需求下降的結果嗎？

And then, Nick, help us understand the cash flow impact as you liquidate this inventory.

然後，尼克，請幫助我們了解您清算此庫存時對現金流的影響。

Yes.

是的。

Deane, this is impacting our cash flow positively, and it's the single biggest driver why you're seeing us increase our estimate of cash flow generation for the full year as we're realizing these benefits of reducing inventory within our own walls.

迪恩，這對我們的現金流產生了積極的影響，這是您看到我們增加對全年現金流產生的估計的最大驅動力，因為我們正在意識到減少自己內部庫存的這些好處。

Some of that is in response to what we're doing responding to what we see a lower demand right now.

其中一些是為了回應我們正在做的事情，以回應我們現在看到的較低需求。

So that's part of it, Deane.

所以這是其中的一部分，迪恩。

But part of it is also that we're seeing opportunities for us to be managing our own supply chain more effectively.

但部分原因在於我們看到了更有效地管理我們自己的供應鏈的機會。

As part of what we've talked about for the last few years around business transformation, I would say we are starting to see some of that benefit, and that's part of the effect -- reason why we have this confidence that we can be bringing down our inventories and improving the cash flow as you're seeing.

作為過去幾年我們圍繞業務轉型所討論的內容的一部分，我想說我們開始看到其中的一些好處，這就是效果的一部分——為什麼我們有信心可以帶來如您所見，降低我們的庫存並改善現金流。

Deane, I would add that -- and we had a plan coming into the year to take down inventory significantly in follow-on to our go-live in the U.S. last year August.

迪恩，我要補充一點——我們計劃在今年內大幅減少庫存，以跟進我們去年 8 月在美國的上線。

We have built inventory ahead of that.

我們已經在此之前建立了庫存。

We talked a lot last year about what customers did Q2 to Q3, but we built inventory to manage through that.

去年我們談了很多關於客戶在第二季度到第三季度所做的事情，但我們建立了庫存來管理它。

We didn't take all of that out by the end of 2018 and had a plan to do that in 2019.

到 2018 年底，我們並沒有把所有這些都拿出來，而是計劃在 2019 年做到這一點。

And so what you're seeing part of -- a significant part of what we're doing is that plan and executing it while we see a slowdown and are having to manage our operations against that slowdown.

因此，您所看到的部分——我們正在做的一個重要部分是該計劃並在我們看到放緩並且必須針對這種放緩管理我們的運營時執行它。

That clarification was very helpful.

這種澄清非常有幫助。

And just as a follow-up, I know there were some SG&A questions, but it also looked like corporate costs came in lower.

作為後續行動，我知道有一些 SG&A 問題，但看起來公司成本也降低了。

Was that all -- was the real estate gain there?

這就是全部 - 是那裡的房地產收益嗎？

And then interest also looked lower and what were the dynamics there?

然後興趣也看起來更低，那裡的動態是什麼？

The real estate gain, that was all in corporate, Deane.

房地產收益，這一切都在公司，迪恩。

You're correct on that.

你是對的。

As far as interest expense, the total net interest expense came in slightly lower, and this will be the last, what I'll say, low quarter for a while.

就利息支出而言，淨利息支出總額略低，這將是最後一個，我會說，一段時間以來的低季度。

And this is part of the $0.15 guide we're seeing on Acelity because late in the quarter, we issued more debt, and we'll be seeing our interest expense increase in the fourth quarter.

這是我們在 Acelity 上看到的 0.15 美元指南的一部分，因為在本季度末，我們發行了更多債務，我們將看到第四季度的利息費用增加。

So we ran, I would say, pretty steady interest expense over the last 3 quarters.

因此，我想說，過去三個季度的利息支出相當穩定。

We'll be seeing that uptick in -- going into Q4.

我們將看到這種上升 - 進入第四季度。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Davis 與 Melius Research 的觀點。

Is there any color you can give us on how the rating agencies view the PFAS overhang?

關於評級機構如何看待 PFAS 懸垂，您能告訴我們任何顏色嗎？

Do they circle a number around it and call it 1 turn of debt or something like that?

他們是否在它周圍圈了一個數字並稱之為 1 輪債務或類似的東西？

And just -- or is it just not -- we're just not far enough along on that yet?

只是——或者不是——我們在這方面還不夠遠？

Scott, I'd describe it as I'd say both our rating agencies as well as everything -- everyone else on the equity side as well is interested in what that will be.

斯科特，我會像我們的評級機構和所有事物一樣描述它——股票方面的其他所有人也對這將是什麼感興趣。

It's something they're watching and monitoring just as we're monitoring, I'm sure same as you're monitoring as well.

這是他們正在監視和監視的事情，就像我們正在監視一樣，我敢肯定，您也在監視。

But there's not a specific thing that I know of that they're building in, in their estimates for that -- for our rating.

但是，在他們對此的估計中，我並不知道他們正在建立的具體事物 - 對於我們的評級。

Okay.

好的。

And I have -- cycle timing is always tough, but you're taking down inventories now and then presumably sometime in 2020, things will get better.

而且我有 - 週期時間總是很艱難，但你不時地減少庫存，大概在 2020 年的某個時候，情況會好轉。

I mean is there a top line impact, you think, missed orders or risk, at all in the inventory plan?

我的意思是，您認為庫存計劃中是否存在錯失訂單或風險？

Or is it just your inventory is so high that it's just -- that's just not an issue?

還是只是您的庫存太高以至於只是-這不是問題？

Yes.

是的。

Scott, I would say, really, what I was talking about, big part of our inventory actions this year are a follow-on to our go-live in the U.S. and that -- we don't see that impacting our service.

斯科特，我想說，真的，我在說什麼，我們今年的庫存行動的很大一部分是我們在美國上線的後續行動，而且我們認為這不會影響我們的服務。

That's -- we're getting us back to where we should be.

那就是——我們正在讓我們回到我們應該在的地方。

And I would say, we -- what I highlighted in EMEA and Canada, as we get deployed end to end, we actually see additional benefits, and we can get more efficient and manage cycle times differently, and days of inventory outstanding will go down and service will go up.

我想說的是，我們——我在歐洲、中東和非洲和加拿大強調的內容，隨著我們端到端部署，我們實際上看到了額外的好處，我們可以提高效率並以不同的方式管理週期時間，並且未清庫存天數將會下降服務會上升。

And so we're seeing that kind of virtuous combination.

所以我們看到了這種良性的組合。

So I don't -- nothing we're doing is putting at risk service, and I would say it's an indication that we're moving forward and getting in a position to have better service at lower inventories.

所以我不 - 我們所做的一切都不會危及服務，我想說這表明我們正在向前邁進，並能夠以較低的庫存提供更好的服務。

Are the customers holding less inventory, to your mind?

在您看來，客戶是否持有更少的庫存？

Well, when you go through distribution across a number of our models, they're all getting more efficient.

好吧，當您在我們的多個模型中進行分發時，它們都會變得更有效率。

They're driving out structure and cycle time as well.

他們也在推動結構和周期時間。

So I think some of what you see in inventory reductions in the channel is just them driving more efficient models.

因此，我認為您在渠道庫存減少中看到的一些情況只是它們推動了更高效的模型。

A big part of it this year is the slowdown in the end markets.

今年很大一部分原因是終端市場的放緩。

But in general, I think you're seeing all supply chains get more efficient.

但總的來說，我認為你看到所有供應鏈都變得更有效率。

At least the ones related to us, we are seeing them get more efficient inside our 4 walls and then with our channel partners as well.

至少與我們相關的那些，我們看到他們在我們的 4 牆內變得更有效率，然後與我們的渠道合作夥伴一起也是如此。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

So maybe my first question, just touching on the decremental margins.

所以也許我的第一個問題，只是觸及遞減的邊距。

I think, Nick, in your prepared comments, you highlighted the good decrementals in Safety and Industrial.

我認為，尼克，在你準備好的評論中，你強調了安全和工業方面的良好遞減。

And I'm just trying to figure out the divergence between the decrementals in that business versus the decrementals in the Transportation and Electronics business.

我只是想弄清楚該業務的遞減量與運輸和電子業務的遞減量之間的差異。

And so any insight that you can provide on either how much of that is either mix or end market-specific as to -- as opposed to how those businesses are being run and how to think about those decremental margins moving forward?

因此，您可以提供任何關於其中有多少是混合或最終市場特定的見解，而不是這些業務的運營方式以及如何考慮這些遞減的利潤率？

As far as the decrementals between SIBG versus TEBG, I think there's a lot of things in common, Joe, actually more than what they're different, where they're both seeing volume reductions impacting them as well as taking inventory out.

至於 SIBG 與 TEBG 之間的遞減量，我認為有很多共同點，Joe，實際上不僅僅是它們的不同之處，他們都看到產量減少對他們產生影響以及清空庫存。

On the TEBG side, there is also some mix benefit that's impacting the TEBG numbers a bit more than the SIBG numbers, partly from the geographies in which TEBG sells as well as the businesses where we're seeing the growth versus negative growth this quarter.

在 TEBG 方面，還有一些混合收益對 TEBG 數字的影響比 SIBG 數字要大一些，部分來自 TEBG 銷售的地區以及我們看到本季度增長與負增長的業務。

So is it fair to assume then as -- things staying negative for the next couple of quarters, the decrementals then in the Transportation and Electronics business should remain kind of at pretty high levels, whereas you'll be able to manage Safety and Industrial a little bit better?

因此可以公平地假設 - 在接下來的幾個季度中，情況保持負面，運輸和電子業務的遞減量應該保持在相當高的水平，而您將能夠管理安全和工業好一點？

Yes.

是的。

Over time, Joe, as I'm sure you've observed this, too, TEBG will have higher incrementals and higher decrementals, partly given the fixed asset base that we have there that when things are going up, we tend to see a lot more of that fall to the bottom line.

隨著時間的推移，喬，我相信你也觀察到了這一點，TEBG 將有更高的增量和更高的減量，部分原因是我們在那裡擁有的固定資產基礎，當事情上升時，我們往往會看到很多更多的下降到了底線。

And when things are going down, we'll see more of that flow.

當事情下降時，我們會看到更多的這種流動。

So it'll tend -- it'll follow what's happening with our volumes in the coming quarters, Joe.

所以它會趨向 - 它會跟隨我們在未來幾個季度的交易量發生的事情，喬。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And then, Mike, maybe one question for you.

然後，邁克，也許有一個問題要問你。

As you kind of think about things on a higher level, not too long ago, you guys performed a strategic review of the health information systems business.

當你們在更高層次上思考問題時，不久前，你們對健康信息系統業務進行了戰略審查。

I'm just wondering, given what we're seeing in the markets today, is there another thought to kind of look across the portfolio closer to see if there's any opportunity from a divestiture standpoint?

我只是想知道，鑑於我們今天在市場上看到的情況，是否有另一種想法可以更仔細地審視投資組合，看看從剝離的角度來看是否有任何機會？

Joe, we are always evaluating our portfolios.

喬，我們一直在評估我們的投資組合。

It's an ongoing process.

這是一個持續的過程。

It's one of the things that we built to become a more active portfolio manager.

這是我們為成為更積極的投資組合經理而建立的目標之一。

It's really become an active, ongoing process.

它真的變成了一個積極的、持續的過程。

And we're focused in that.

我們專注於此。

As I've shared in the past, we're focused on optimizing the value of our portfolio on an ongoing basis and looking at everything from what we do with our organic investments to where we focus our acquisitions and what we do with -- to optimize all parts of our portfolio, including divestitures.

正如我過去分享的那樣，我們專注於持續優化我們投資組合的價值，並著眼於從我們對有機投資所做的事情到我們的收購重點以及我們所做的一切——到優化我們投資組合的所有部分，包括資產剝離。

And we showed examples again where we were -- when we identified parts of our portfolio that we could create greater value by divesting them, we're ready to take those actions.

我們再次展示了我們所處的示例——當我們確定了我們可以通過剝離它們來創造更大價值的部分投資組合時，我們已準備好採取這些行動。

So I think it's -- I think of it as a very active portfolio pipeline on an ongoing basis and something we -- top priority for us.

所以我認為這是 - 我認為它是一個非常活躍的投資組合管道，並且是我們的首要任務。

Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

So Nick, can we just go back to the inventory impacts?

那麼尼克，我們可以回到庫存影響嗎？

I think you said 150 to 200 basis points.

我想你說的是 150 到 200 個基點。

So was that $150 million to $200 million?

那是 1.5 億到 2 億美元嗎？

Can you just clarify that?

你能澄清一下嗎？

That was 150 to 200 basis points impact based on our year-on-year change in inventory levels and throughput that we're putting through our factories.

根據我們通過工廠的庫存水平和吞吐量的同比變化，這是 150 到 200 個基點的影響。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Can we just dig into that because I mean that implies a $400 million gross margin impact just based on the 150 on revenues?

我們可以深入研究一下，因為我的意思是這意味著僅基於 150 的收入就意味著 4 億美元的毛利率影響？

And theoretically, that comes back in 2020 as you stabilize inventories.

從理論上講，隨著您穩定庫存，這種情況會在 2020 年重新出現。

But it seems like apples-to-apples, you're cutting inventory by about $400 million excluding disposals.

但似乎蘋果對蘋果，你正在削減大約 4 億美元的庫存，不包括處置。

So I'm just wondering how on earth it can be as big as that impact just because of the fixed cost absorption.

所以我只是想知道它到底是如何因為固定成本吸收而產生如此大的影響的。

So maybe just kind of clarify that point, please.

所以也許只是澄清這一點，請。

So Nigel, part of that analysis is looking at how much we built inventories in the third quarter of 2018 compared to how much we reduced inventories in the third quarter of 2019.

因此，奈傑爾，該分析的一部分是研究我們在 2018 年第三季度建立了多少庫存，與我們在 2019 年第三季度減少了多少庫存。

In the third quarter of 2018, we were still building inventories fairly substantially, and that's now flipped.

在 2018 年第三季度，我們仍在相當大地增加庫存，而現在情況發生了逆轉。

So all of that 150 to 200 will not come -- pull forward into 2020 because some of it is a statement on the benefits we were getting in 2018.

因此，所有這 150 到 200 個都不會到來——提前到 2020 年，因為其中一些是關於我們在 2018 年獲得的好處的聲明。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

That helps.

這有幫助。

So we'll dig in off-line on that one as well.

因此，我們也會在離線狀態下進行挖掘。

And then you kind of alluded to this in the answer to I think Joe's question on the geographic mix location of the sales.

然後你在回答我認為喬關於銷售的地理組合位置的問題時提到了這一點。

And you're growing in EMEA, which is your lowest-margin region still.

你在歐洲、中東和非洲地區發展壯大，這仍然是你利潤率最低的地區。

You're declining heavily in Asia, which is your highest margin.

你在亞洲大幅下滑，這是你的最高利潤。

So maybe just address the mix impact that you're seeing right now on margin.

因此，也許只需解決您現在在保證金上看到的混合影響。

Yes.

是的。

So some of our businesses and that -- as we look geographically, Asia Pacific is one of our higher-margin places, and EMEA is one of our lower-margin places.

因此，我們的一些業務以及從地理上看，亞太地區是我們利潤率較高的地區之一，而歐洲、中東和非洲地區是我們利潤率較低的地區之一。

So geographic mix is having an impact on us.

因此，地理組合正在對我們產生影響。

On the EMEA side, you're accurate in saying it's one of our lower -- it is our lowest margin parts of the world.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，你準確地說它是我們較低的地區之一——它是我們世界上利潤率最低的地區。

However, I will point out, and thanks for bringing that up, we've been on a journey of increasing our margins there, and we are very pleased with the progress we've been making in 2019 on our progression to moving our West European margins up to 20%.

但是，我要指出，感謝您提出這一點，我們一直在努力提高我們的利潤率，我們對 2019 年在推動西歐移動方面取得的進展感到非常滿意利潤率高達 20%。

2019 has been a substantial step towards reaching that by 2020, and we're highly confident we'll be there by next year.

2019 年是朝著 2020 年實現這一目標邁出的重要一步，我們非常有信心在明年實現這一目標。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just one quick one, Nick, on the FX hedge, the 8 basis points of impact this quarter.

然後是一個快速的，尼克，關於外匯對沖，本季度的 8 個基點的影響。

How does that evolve going into 2020?

到 2020 年，這將如何發展？

Do we flip into a slight negative in 2020?

我們會在 2020 年轉為小幅負面嗎？

I mean any views on that?

我的意思是對此有何看法？

Depends on whether you're asking about margin or EPS.

取決於您詢問的是保證金還是每股收益。

We continue to have a number of unrealized gains that if currencies stay where they are, we'll see those gains flowing through in the next 2 years from our hedging.

我們繼續有一些未實現的收益，如果貨幣保持原狀，我們將看到這些收益在未來兩年內從我們的對沖中流出。

Right now, I'm not willing to say whether I think it's going to be a benefit or not because there's just too much volatility in the FX market to say.

現在，我不願意說我認為這是否會帶來好處，因為外匯市場的波動太大了。

But if you look at our 10-Q that we'll be issuing if -- we lay out here is the amount of unrealized FX hedging gains that will unwind in the next year or 2.

但是，如果您查看我們將發布的 10-Q，我們將在此處列出將在明年或 2 年解除的未實現外匯對沖收益的數量。

Our last question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies & Company.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies & Company 的 Laurence Alexander。

Just one last inventory question.

最後一個庫存問題。

On the last call, you had -- you reduced inventory by about $70 million more than in Q3, but the margin impact was about 50 basis points less.

在最後一次電話會議上，您的庫存比第三季度減少了約 7000 萬美元，但對利潤率的影響減少了約 50 個基點。

Is there a -- is that just simply because of the year-over-year comparison issue that you're speaking of?

是否有 - 僅僅是因為您所說的同比比較問題？

Or is that also because of which business lines you were reducing inventory in?

或者這也是因為您減少了哪些業務線的庫存？

No, Laurence.

不，勞倫斯。

It's solely a function of the comp that we're going against in 2018.

這只是我們在 2018 年反對的比賽的一個功能。

Okay.

好的。

And then just to clarify, the 200 -- the 150 to 200 basis points, I think, that Nigel was referring to, I think some of the questions on the call have framed it as a full year impact.

然後只是澄清一下，我認為奈傑爾所指的 200 - 150 到 200 個基點，我認為電話會議上的一些問題已將其視為全年影響。

Is it a full year impact?

是全年影響嗎？

Or is it just a Q3 impact?

還是只是第三季度的影響？

Yes.

是的。

That was just a Q3 comment on the impact it's having on our total margin.

這只是關於它對我們總利潤率的影響的第三季度評論。

That concludes the question-and-answer portion of our conference call.

我們電話會議的問答部分到此結束。

I will now turn the call back over to Mike Roman for some closing comments.

我現在將把電話轉回給 Mike Roman 以徵求一些結束意見。

To wrap up, I am pleased with our team's progress in the third quarter, which demonstrates the strength of the 3M model and our ability to perform across the business cycle.

最後，我對我們團隊在第三季度取得的進展感到高興，這證明了 3M 模式的實力以及我們在整個商業周期中的表現能力。

Moving forward, we are focused on delivering greater value for our customers and shareholders, building on the momentum from our execution and results in Q3, driving strong cash flow and improving growth.

展望未來，我們專注於為我們的客戶和股東創造更大的價值，利用我們在第三季度的執行和業績的勢頭，推動強勁的現金流並改善增長。

Thank you for joining us.

感謝您加入我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開您的線路。