3M (MMM) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the 3M Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加 3M 第四季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Tuesday, January 28, 2020.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製，2020 年 1 月 28 日，星期二。

I would now like to turn the call over to Bruce Jermeland, Vice President of Investor Relations at 3M.

我現在想把電話轉給 3M 投資者關係副總裁 Bruce Jermeland。

Thank you and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，早上好。

Welcome to our fourth quarter 2019 business review and 2020 outlook.

歡迎閱讀我們的 2019 年第四季度業務回顧和 2020 年展望。

With me today are Mike Roman, 3M's Chief Executive Officer; and Nick Gangestad, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我在一起的是 3M 的首席執行官邁克·羅曼 (Mike Roman)；和我們的首席財務官 Nick Gangestad。

Mike and Nick will make some formal comments, and then we'll take your questions.

Mike 和Nick 將發表一些正式意見，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Please note that today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call are posted on our Investor Relations website at 3m.com under the heading Quarterly Earnings.

請注意，本次電話會議隨附的今天的收益發布和幻燈片演示發佈在我們的投資者關係網站 3m.com 的“季度收益”標題下。

Please turn to Slide 2. Before we begin, let me remind you of the dates for our 2020 quarterly earnings conference calls, which will be held on April 28, July 28 and October 27.

請轉到幻燈片 2。在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您 2020 年季度收益電話會議的日期，該電話會議將於 4 月 28 日、7 月 28 日和 10 月 27 日舉行。

Also note, we are planning to host an Investor Meeting in 2020.

另請注意，我們計劃在 2020 年舉辦投資者會議。

We will update you once we have finalized the date for the meeting.

確定會議日期後，我們會通知您。

Please take a moment to read the forward-looking statement on Slide 3. During today's conference call, we will make certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M's future performance and financial results.

請花點時間閱讀幻燈片 3 上的前瞻性聲明。在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出某些預測性聲明，以反映我們目前對 3M 未來業績和財務業績的看法。

These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述基於某些假設和對未來事件的預期，這些事件受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-K lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.

我們最新的 10-K 表格的第 1A 項列出了一些可能導致實際結果與我們的預測不同的最重要的風險因素。

Finally, please note that throughout today's presentation, we will be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

最後，請注意，在今天的整個演示過程中，我們將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標。

Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of today's presentation and press release.

非 GAAP 措施的對賬可在今天的演示文稿和新聞稿的附錄中找到。

Please turn to Slide 4, and I'll hand it off to Mike.

請轉到幻燈片 4，我會把它交給邁克。

Mike?

麥克風？

Thank you, Bruce.

謝謝你，布魯斯。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。

Our team executed well in the fourth quarter and delivered results that were in line with our expectations.

我們的團隊在第四季度表現良好，交付的結果符合我們的預期。

Although we continue to face growth challenges in certain end markets, our focus on productivity and cost management helped generate solid underlying margins and robust cash flow with a conversion rate of 186%.

儘管我們在某些終端市場繼續面臨增長挑戰，但我們對生產力和成本管理的關注幫助產生了穩固的基礎利潤和強勁的現金流，轉化率為 186%。

We also continue to build, invest and transform for the long-term success of 3M.

我們還為 3M 的長期成功繼續建設、投資和轉型。

Earlier today, we issued a press release on the next big phase of our transformation journey, a new global operating model and streamlined organizational structure, which I will discuss in more detail.

今天早些時候，我們就轉型之旅的下一個重要階段發布了新聞稿，即新的全球運營模式和精簡的組織結構，我將對此進行更詳細的討論。

Today, I will also provide an update on our ongoing commitment to sustainability and environmental stewardship, including PFAS.

今天，我還將更新我們對可持續發展和環境管理（包括 PFAS）的持續承諾。

Later in the call, I will come back to discuss our full year performance, including record cash flow and good progress on our strategic priorities, along with our outlook for 2020, where we expect to return to growth.

在電話會議的稍後部分，我將回來討論我們的全年業績，包括創紀錄的現金流和我們戰略重點的良好進展，以及我們預計將恢復增長的 2020 年展望。

Please turn to Slide 5, where I will begin with a summary of our fourth quarter results.

請轉到幻燈片 5，我將在其中開始總結我們的第四季度業績。

Organic growth company-wide in the fourth quarter was minus 2.6%, in line with our guidance.

第四季度全公司的有機增長為負 2.6%，符合我們的指引。

We continue to face softness in certain end markets, namely China, automotive and electronics, which impacted overall growth.

我們繼續面臨某些終端市場的疲軟，即中國、汽車和電子產品，這影響了整體增長。

We delivered adjusted earnings of $1.95 per share, which includes a $0.20 Q4 restructuring charge that I will discuss shortly.

我們實現了每股 1.95 美元的調整後收益，其中包括我將在稍後討論的 0.20 美元的第四季度重組費用。

Excluding that charge, we delivered EPS of $2.15, at the high end of our guidance.

不包括該費用，我們交付的每股收益為 2.15 美元，處於我們指導的高端。

Finally, we generated underlying margins of 20.7%, which includes a 140 basis point impact from the Acelity acquisition, while reducing inventory levels by $115 million.

最後，我們產生了 20.7% 的基本利潤率，其中包括 Acelity 收購帶來的 140 個基點的影響，同時將庫存水平降低了 1.15 億美元。

Overall, I'm pleased with our team's execution and our ongoing progress in driving operational improvements.

總的來說，我對我們團隊的執行力以及我們在推動運營改進方面的持續進展感到滿意。

Please turn to Slide 6. I have talked to you often about the strength and vitality of the 3M value model.

請翻到幻燈片 6。我經常與您談論 3M 價值模型的力量和活力。

We have deep competitive advantages, unique technology platforms, advanced manufacturing, leading brands and global capabilities, all of which make 3M greater than the sum of our parts.

我們擁有深厚的競爭優勢、獨特的技術平台、先進的製造、領先的品牌和全球能力，所有這些都使 3M 大於我們各個部分的總和。

At the same time, we constantly evolve and build on our foundation, which we are doing through our 4 strategic priorities, including transformation.

與此同時，我們通過 4 個戰略重點（包括轉型）不斷發展和鞏固我們的基礎。

Over the last several years, we have been on a journey to transform how we serve our customers, how we work and how we compete.

在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在改變我們為客戶服務的方式、工作方式和競爭方式。

The deployment of our ERP system has enabled new standardized business processes, new service models and new digitalization capabilities across 3M.

我們的 ERP 系統的部署使 3M 實現了新的標準化業務流程、新的服務模型和新的數字化能力。

In EMEA and Canada, where we are furthest along in our transformation, we are seeing enhanced customer service, improved margins, better use of data analytics and lower inventories.

在歐洲、中東和非洲和加拿大，我們在轉型中走得最遠，我們看到客戶服務得到改善、利潤率提高、數據分析得到更好利用和庫存減少。

We are starting to see the same improvements in service, analytics and inventories in the U.S. as well, which gives us continued confidence in our transformation journey.

我們也開始在美國看到服務、分析和庫存方面的同樣改進，這讓我們對轉型之旅充滿信心。

Importantly, our progress has enabled us to realign the company and further leverage our transformation capabilities.

重要的是，我們的進步使我們能夠重新調整公司並進一步利用我們的轉型能力。

As you know, in April of last year, we moved from 5 to 4 business groups to better align around our customers and our 4 go-to-market models.

如您所知，去年 4 月，我們從 5 個業務組轉移到 4 個業務組，以更好地圍繞我們的客戶和我們的 4 個上市模型進行調整。

This was the first step in our realignment.

這是我們重組的第一步。

Since then, we have been working on reorganizing the entire company around our new business groups to take full advantage of our new capabilities.

從那時起，我們一直致力於圍繞我們的新業務部門重組整個公司，以充分利用我們的新能力。

On January 1, we implemented a new streamlined global operating model designed to improve growth and operational efficiency.

1 月 1 日，我們實施了一種新的簡化的全球運營模式，旨在提高增長和運營效率。

In the new model, our business groups now have full responsibility for all facets of strategy, portfolio and resource prioritization across our entire global operations.

在新模式中，我們的業務部門現在對我們整個全球運營的戰略、投資組合和資源優先排序的所有方面負有全部責任。

Under the prior model, area and country teams had responsibility for setting priorities in their respective regions, part of a distinct international organization.

在以前的模式下，地區和國家團隊負責在各自的地區設定優先事項，這是一個獨特的國際組織的一部分。

Now all of our international people report directly into the business groups and functions that they are part of, and there is no longer a separate international team.

現在，我們所有的國際員工都直接向他們所屬的業務部門和職能部門報告，不再有單獨的國際團隊。

This new model has clear benefits to both 3M and our customers.

這種新模式對 3M 和我們的客戶都有明顯的好處。

First, it will drive more accountability to our business groups to strengthen performance and serve both global and local customers.

首先，它將推動我們的業務部門承擔更多責任，以加強績效並為全球和本地客戶提供服務。

Second, it will enable stronger customer insights in order to drive more powerful innovation.

其次，它將提供更強大的客戶洞察力，以推動更強大的創新。

Third, it will empower our people with more freedom to make decisions and increase speed and service to our customers.

第三，它將賦予我們的員工更多的決策自由，並提高為客戶提供的速度和服務。

Fourth, it will make us more efficient and help us continue to drive margin expansion by reducing layers, streamlining structure and simplifying reporting lines.

第四，它將提高我們的效率，並幫助我們通過減少層級、精簡結構和簡化報告線來繼續推動利潤增長。

Finally, it will allow us to leverage similarities across markets while maintaining the robust local capabilities and expertise that help differentiate 3M.

最後，它將使我們能夠利用不同市場的相似性，同時保持強大的本地能力和專業知識，幫助 3M 脫穎而出。

3M has both experience and success operating in a global model such as this.

3M 在這樣的全球模式中既有經驗，也有成功的經驗。

For several years, our electronics and auto OEM businesses have operated in a global model, and we've seen stronger customer alignment along with better service, innovation and efficiency.

幾年來，我們的電子和汽車 OEM 業務一直以全球模式運營，我們看到了更強的客戶一致性以及更好的服務、創新和效率。

In addition to our new model, we also made changes in 2019 to the way we support our business groups.

除了我們的新模式，我們還在 2019 年改變了我們支持業務團隊的方式。

To optimize the customer experience in each of our go-to-market models, we consolidated manufacturing, supply chain and customer operations into a seamless end-to-end enterprise operations organization.

為了優化我們每個上市模型中的客戶體驗，我們將製造、供應鍊和客戶運營整合到一個無縫的端到端企業運營組織中。

This team plays a critical role in tailoring service and expertise to the needs of our customers and has been a key driver in enabling us to reduce inventory levels.

該團隊在根據客戶需求定制服務和專業知識方面發揮著關鍵作用，並且一直是使我們能夠降低庫存水平的關鍵驅動力。

We also brought together key capabilities around the world as part of a new global corporate affairs organization in order to advance our brand and reputation and build on our history as one of the best places to work around the world.

作為新的全球企業事務組織的一部分，我們還匯集了世界各地的主要能力，以提升我們的品牌和聲譽，並鞏固我們作為全球最佳工作場所之一的歷史。

As a result of these actions, today, we are announcing a restructuring charge as we move quickly to our new alignment.

作為這些行動的結果，今天，我們宣布一項重組費用，因為我們迅速轉向我們的新聯盟。

The restructuring includes streamlining our organization by reducing approximately 1,500 positions spanning all business groups, functions and geographies.

重組包括精簡我們的組織，裁員約 1,500 個職位，涵蓋所有業務部門、職能和地區。

On a pretax basis, we took a restructuring charge of $134 million in Q4 and we expect annual pretax savings of $110 million to $120 million, with $40 million to $50 million in 2020.

在稅前基礎上，我們在第四季度收取了 1.34 億美元的重組費用，我們預計每年稅前節省 1.1 億至 1.2 億美元，到 2020 年將節省 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元。

In our new structure, we will also report geographic results under 3 areas beginning in Q1 of 2020: the Americas; Europe, Middle East, Africa; and Asia Pacific, with the same level of detail and transparency as we always have.

在我們的新結構中，我們還將從 2020 年第一季度開始報告 3 個地區的地理結果：美洲；歐洲、中東、非洲；和亞太地區，與我們一如既往的詳細程度和透明度。

Ultimately, as I've communicated to all 3Mers, this is a defining moment for our enterprise.

最後，正如我與所有 3Mers 溝通的那樣，這對我們的企業來說是一個決定性的時刻。

We are modernizing how we run our business and building an organization for the future, and I'm more confident than ever in our journey to transform into a more agile, more efficient and more competitive enterprise.

我們正在使我們的業務運營方式現代化，並為未來構建一個組織，我比以往任何時候都更有信心在我們轉型為更敏捷、更高效和更具競爭力的企業的過程中。

Please turn to Slide 7. Being a leader in sustainability and environmental stewardship is core to 3M and is a value that matters deeply to our employees, our stakeholders and to me personally.

請轉到幻燈片 7。成為可持續發展和環境管理領域的領導者是 3M 的核心，也是對我們的員工、利益相關者和我個人都非常重要的價值觀。

We started our groundbreaking Pollution Prevention Pays program more than 40 years ago, and we have continued to step up our leadership to address climate and environmental challenges.

40 多年前，我們啟動了開創性的污染防治付費計劃，並且我們不斷加強領導力，以應對氣候和環境挑戰。

Last year, we moved our St.

去年，我們搬了我們的聖。

Paul headquarters to 100% renewable electricity while committing to move our entire global operations to renewable energy by 2050.

Paul 總部採用 100% 可再生電力，同時承諾到 2050 年將我們的整個全球業務轉移到可再生能源。

3M also produces a broad range of solutions that help our customers reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, from our smog-reducing roofing granules to our films that make homes, electronics and automobiles more energy-efficient.

3M 還生產範圍廣泛的解決方案，幫助我們的客戶減少溫室氣體排放，從減少煙霧的屋頂顆粒到使家庭、電子產品和汽車更加節能的薄膜。

From a governance perspective, we are also strengthening oversight of strategies related to sustainability, R&D and commercialization.

從治理的角度來看，我們也在加強對與可持續性、研發和商業化相關的戰略的監督。

In November, our Board established a Science, Technology and Sustainability Committee to ensure we are building on our strong innovation capabilities while advancing our already high standards for product and environmental stewardship.

11 月，我們的董事會成立了科學、技術和可持續發展委員會，以確保我們在加強我們強大的創新能力的同時，推進我們已經很高的產品和環境管理標準。

This commitment to sustainability includes stewardship of water, one of our most precious resources.

這種對可持續發展的承諾包括對水的管理，水是我們最寶貴的資源之一。

As part of our responsibility, we are proactively managing PFAS, guided by the principles of sound science, corporate responsibility and transparency.

作為我們責任的一部分，我們在健全科學、企業責任和透明度原則的指導下，積極管理 PFAS。

We are committed to being part of the solution to ensure communities have confidence in their water.

我們致力於成為解決方案的一部分，以確保社區對他們的水有信心。

This includes addressing contamination at sites where we produced or disposed of PFAS.

這包括解決我們生產或處置 PFAS 的場所的污染問題。

In addition, we will work with our customers and our other stakeholders in connection with other sites where PFAS concerns exist.

此外，我們將與我們的客戶和其他利益相關者合作，處理存在 PFAS 問題的其他場所。

Our efforts under these commitments led to a litigation-related pretax charge of $214 million in the fourth quarter, split roughly equally between the following 2 items: First, we updated our assessment of environmental matters and litigation related to our manufacture and disposal of PFAS, which included expanding our evaluation to other 3M sites that may have used certain PFAS material.

我們在這些承諾下的努力導致第四季度與訴訟相關的稅前費用為 2.14 億美元，大致平均分配給以下兩項：首先，我們更新了對環境問題的評估以及與我們製造和處置 PFAS 相關的訴訟，其中包括將我們的評估擴展到可能使用某些 PFAS 材料的其他 3M 站點。

Second, we updated our assessment of customer-related litigation based on ongoing settlement discussions.

其次，我們根據正在進行的和解討論更新了對客戶相關訴訟的評估。

At the same time, we continue to work with the EPA and other authorities to ensure we are fulfilling our ongoing commitment to environmental stewardship.

與此同時，我們繼續與 EPA 和其他當局合作，以確保我們履行對環境管理的持續承諾。

As previously disclosed, in 2019, 3M discovered and voluntarily informed the EPA and appropriate state authorities that discharges from our Decatur, Alabama facility may not have complied with permit requirements.

正如之前披露的那樣，2019 年，3M 發現並自願通知美國環保署和有關州當局，我們位於阿拉巴馬州迪凱特的工廠排放的污染物可能不符合許可要求。

We immediately idled the relevant processes and took steps to address these issues.

我們立即停止了相關流程，並採取措施解決這些問題。

In connection with our Decatur disclosures, 3M received a grand jury subpoena from the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Northern District of Alabama in late December 2019, and we are cooperating with this inquiry.

關於我們的 Decatur 披露，3M 於 2019 年 12 月下旬收到了美國阿拉巴馬州北區檢察官辦公室的大陪審團傳票，我們正在配合這項調查。

In addition, in Q4 of 2019, as part of our compliance assessment of similar sites, we identified and also disclosed to the EPA and appropriate state authorities similar discharge issues at our Cordova, Illinois facility.

此外，在 2019 年第四季度，作為我們對類似場地合規性評估的一部分，我們發現並向 EPA 和相關州當局披露了我們伊利諾伊州科爾多瓦工廠的類似排放問題。

We continue to support the EPA and the Alabama and Illinois state environmental authorities to help resolve these matters.

我們將繼續支持 EPA 以及阿拉巴馬州和伊利諾伊州的環保部門幫助解決這些問題。

We have a strong, cross-functional team in place that is actively managing our environmental stewardship and PFAS.

我們擁有一支強大的跨職能團隊，積極管理我們的環境管理和 PFAS。

And moving forward, we will continue to update you as developments unfold.

展望未來，隨著事態的發展，我們將繼續為您更新。

If you haven't already, I encourage you to visit our PFAS stewardship website, which can be found on our Investor Relations site under the heading About 3M.

如果您還沒有，我鼓勵您訪問我們的 PFAS 管理網站，該網站可以在我們的投資者關係網站上的關於 3M 標題下找到。

That wraps up my opening remarks.

我的開場白到此結束。

I will come back to discuss our full year performance along with our 2020 guidance after Nick takes you through the details of the quarter.

在 Nick 帶您了解本季度的詳細信息後，我將回來討論我們的全年業績以及我們的 2020 年指導意見。

Nick?

缺口？

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝邁克，大家早上好。

I'll start on Slide 8 with a recap of our fourth quarter sales performance.

我將從幻燈片 8 開始回顧我們第四季度的銷售業績。

Fourth quarter organic sales declined 2.6%.

第四季度有機銷售額下降 2.6%。

Volumes were down 340 basis points, while selling prices were up 80 basis points.

成交量下降了 340 個基點，而售價上漲了 80 個基點。

The net impact of acquisitions and divestitures increased sales by 5.1 percentage points, while foreign currency translation was a 40 basis point headwind to sales.

收購和剝離的淨影響使銷售額增加了 5.1 個百分點，而外幣換算對銷售額造成了 40 個基點的不利影響。

All in, fourth quarter sales in U.S. dollars grew 2.1% versus last year.

總而言之，以美元計算的第四季度銷售額與去年同期相比增長了 2.1%。

Looking at growth geographically, U.S. organic growth declined 3%, primarily due to declines in the Transportation and Electronics and Safety and Industrial businesses.

從地域增長來看，美國的有機增長下降了 3%，這主要是由於運輸和電子以及安全和工業業務的下滑。

Asia Pacific declined 3% in Q4, with Japan down 7%, primarily due to a decline in our electronics business.

亞太地區在第四季度下降了 3%，日本下降了 7%，這主要是由於我們電子業務的下滑。

Organic growth was up 1% in China.

中國的有機增長率為 1%。

This result is primarily due to last year's easier comparison.

這一結果主要是由於去年的比較更容易。

EMEA declined 3%, while Latin America/Canada was flat.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區下降了 3%，而拉丁美洲/加拿大持平。

Please turn to Slide 9 for the fourth quarter P&L highlights.

請轉到幻燈片 9 了解第四季度損益亮點。

Company-wide, fourth quarter sales were $8.1 billion, with adjusted operating income of $1.5 billion.

全公司第四季度銷售額為 81 億美元，調整後營業收入為 15 億美元。

Adjusted operating margins were 19%, which included a negative 170 basis point impact from restructuring.

調整後的營業利潤率為 19%，其中包括重組帶來的 170 個基點的負面影響。

Considering this impact, fourth quarter operating margins were right in line with our expectations.

考慮到這一影響，第四季度營業利潤率符合我們的預期。

On the right-hand side of this slide, you see the components of our margin performance in the fourth quarter.

在這張幻燈片的右側，您可以看到我們第四季度利潤率表現的組成部分。

Lower organic volumes and our continued efforts to reduce inventories to improve cash flow were both headwinds to margins year-over-year.

較低的有機銷量和我們繼續努力減少庫存以改善現金流都是同比利潤率的不利因素。

Partially offsetting these headwinds were benefits from our Q2 restructuring actions.

我們第二季度的重組行動帶來的好處部分抵消了這些不利因素。

In total, these factors resulted in a 110 basis point reduction to margins versus last year's fourth quarter.

總的來說，這些因素導致利潤率比去年第四季度下降了 110 個基點。

Acquisitions and divestitures combined reduced margins by 140 basis points, mainly related to our acquisition of Acelity.

收購和資產剝離合計使利潤率降低了 140 個基點，這主要與我們對 Acelity 的收購有關。

Higher selling prices, along with slightly lower raw material costs, contributed 70 basis points to fourth quarter margins.

更高的售價以及略低的原材料成本為第四季度的利潤率貢獻了 70 個基點。

And finally, foreign currency, net of hedging impacts, increased margins by 10 basis points.

最後，扣除對沖影響後的外匯利潤率增加了 10 個基點。

Let's now turn to Slide 10 for a closer look at earnings per share.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 10 仔細查看每股收益。

Fourth quarter adjusted earnings were $1.95 per share and, as Mike noted, included a $0.20 impact from our Q4 restructuring, which was not factored into our prior guidance.

第四季度調整後收益為每股 1.95 美元，正如 Mike 指出的那樣，其中包括我們第四季度重組帶來的 0.20 美元影響，這沒有被納入我們之前的指導中。

Accounting for this item, earnings were $2.15 per share, right in line with the high end of our guidance range.

考慮到這一項目，每股收益為 2.15 美元，正好符合我們指導範圍的上限。

Looking at the components of our year-on-year earnings performance.

查看我們同比收益表現的組成部分。

The net impact of organic growth, inventory reductions and other items I covered on the prior slide reduced fourth quarter per share earnings by $0.13.

有機增長、庫存減少和我在上一張幻燈片中提到的其他項目的淨影響使第四季度每股收益減少了 0.13 美元。

Acquisitions and divestitures combined reduced fourth quarter earnings by $0.11 per share versus last year, primarily due to Acelity.

收購和剝離使第四季度每股收益與去年同期相比減少了 0.11 美元，這主要是由於 Acelity。

Please note that this result includes the impacts of both financing and tax costs.

請注意，此結果包括融資和稅收成本的影響。

While early, Acelity is off to a good start, as our team delivered results better than expected.

雖然早期，Acelity 有了一個良好的開端，因為我們的團隊交付的結果好於預期。

Turning to tax rate.

轉向稅率。

Our fourth quarter adjusted tax rate was 20.3% versus 20.5% last year.

我們第四季度的調整後稅率為 20.3%，而去年為 20.5%。

As noted with acquisitions, M&A and restructuring categories in this table include their own year-on-year tax impacts, with the remaining impact of $0.05 reflected in this line.

如本表中的收購、併購和重組類別所指出的，包括它們自己的同比稅收影響，剩餘影響 0.05 美元反映在該行中。

And finally, average diluted shares outstanding declined 1.7% versus Q4 last year, adding $0.03 to per share earnings.

最後，與去年第四季度相比，稀釋後的平均流通股下降了 1.7%，每股收益增加了 0.03 美元。

Please turn to Slide 11 for a look at our cash flow performance.

請轉到幻燈片 11 查看我們的現金流量表現。

As Mike noted, we delivered another quarter of robust free cash flow, with fourth quarter free cash flow of $1.8 billion.

正如 Mike 指出的那樣，我們又交付了一個季度強勁的自由現金流，第四季度的自由現金流為 18 億美元。

For the full year, free cash flow increased 10% to $5.4 billion, as our teams delivered strong working capital management throughout 2019.

全年，自由現金流增長 10% 至 54 億美元，因為我們的團隊在整個 2019 年提供了強有力的營運資本管理。

Fourth quarter conversion was 186%, which included a 27 percentage point benefit from the significant litigation-related charges.

第四季度轉換率為 186%，其中包括與訴訟相關的重大費用帶來的 27 個百分點的收益。

Fourth quarter capital expenditures were $538 million, with the full year totaling $1.7 billion.

第四季度資本支出為 5.38 億美元，全年總計 17 億美元。

Also during the fourth quarter, we returned $1 billion to shareholders via dividends and gross share repurchases.

同樣在第四季度，我們通過股息和股票回購總額向股東返還了 10 億美元。

And for the full year, we returned $4.7 billion.

全年，我們返還了 47 億美元。

Please turn to Slide 12, where I will summarize the business group performance for Q4.

請翻到幻燈片 12，我將在其中總結第四季度的業務集團業績。

I will start with our Safety and Industrial business, which declined 2.8% organically in the quarter.

我將從我們的安全和工業業務開始，該業務在本季度有機下降了 2.8%。

Our personal safety and industrial minerals businesses delivered mid-single-digit organic growth in the quarter, while the balance of the portfolio declined.

我們的人身安全和工業礦物業務在本季度實現了中個位數的有機增長，而投資組合的餘額則有所下降。

Looking geographically, organic growth increased in Latin America/Canada, while Asia Pacific, the U.S. and EMEA each declined.

從地域上看，拉丁美洲/加拿大的有機增長有所增加，而亞太地區、美國和 EMEA 均有所下降。

Safety and Industrial's fourth quarter operating margins were 20.9%.

Safety and Industrial 第四季度的營業利潤率為 20.9%。

Overall, margins continue to be solid when considering negative organic growth, inventory reductions and restructuring impacts.

總體而言，考慮到負有機增長、庫存減少和重組影響，利潤率繼續穩固。

Moving to Transportation and Electronics.

轉向運輸和電子。

As expected, fourth quarter sales were down 5.9% organically compared to last year, impacted by end market softness worldwide.

正如預期的那樣，受全球終端市場疲軟的影響，第四季度銷售額與去年同期相比有機下降 5.9%。

Our electronics-related businesses showed sequential improvement, despite year-over-year being down mid-single digits organically, as demand remained soft in consumer electronics and factory automation end markets.

我們的電子相關業務呈現連續改善，儘管同比有機下降中個位數，因為消費電子和工廠自動化終端市場的需求仍然疲軟。

Our automotive OEM business was down 5%, a bit better than fourth quarter global car and light truck builds, which were down 6%.

我們的汽車 OEM 業務下降了 5%，略好於第四季度全球轎車和輕型卡車製造業務下降 6%。

Transportation and Electronics fourth quarter operating margins were 20.8%.

運輸和電子第四季度營業利潤率為 20.8%。

Similar to Safety and Industrial, margins were impacted by lower sales, inventory reductions and restructuring.

與安全和工業類似，利潤率受到銷售額下降、庫存減少和重組的影響。

Turning to our Health Care business.

轉向我們的醫療保健業務。

Organic growth was flat year-over-year against last year's strong comparison.

與去年的強勁對比相比，有機增長同比持平。

Growth was led by mid-single-digit increases in health information systems and food safety.

健康信息系統和食品安全的中個位數增長帶動了增長。

Medical solutions, our largest business, was up slightly, while oral care declined low single digits in the quarter.

我們最大的業務醫療解決方案略有增長，而口腔護理業務在本季度下降了低個位數。

Looking geographically, growth was led by Latin America/Canada and EMEA, while the U.S. declined.

從地域上看，增長由拉丁美洲/加拿大和 EMEA 引領，而美國則有所下降。

Health Care fourth quarter operating margins were 21.3%, impacted by nearly 8 percentage points from the combination of the M*Modal and Acelity acquisitions, along with restructuring.

醫療保健第四季度的營業利潤率為 21.3%，受到 M*Modal 和 Acelity 收購以及重組的影響近 8 個百分點。

Taking these factors into account, margins were up 100 basis points year-over-year.

考慮到這些因素，利潤率同比增長了 100 個基點。

Lastly, fourth quarter organic growth for our Consumer business was flat.

最後，我們消費者業務的第四季度有機增長持平。

Sales were led by mid-single-digit growth in home improvement and low single-digit growth in home care, while stationery and office and consumer health care declined.

家居裝修的中個位數增長和家庭護理的低個位數增長帶動了銷售額，而文具和辦公用品以及消費者保健品則有所下降。

Looking at Consumer geographically, Latin America/Canada grew mid-single digits.

從地域上看消費者，拉丁美洲/加拿大增長了中個位數。

The U.S. was up nearly 1%, while EMEA and Asia Pacific declined.

美國上漲近 1%，而 EMEA 和亞太地區則下跌。

Consumer's operating margins were a strong 23.4%, up 3 percentage points year-over-year, driven by portfolio and footprint actions we have been executing in this business.

消費者業務的營業利潤率高達 23.4%，同比增長 3 個百分點，這得益於我們一直在該業務中執行的投資組合和足跡行動。

That wraps up our review of fourth quarter results.

我們對第四季度業績的回顧到此結束。

Please turn to Slide 13, and I'll hand it back over to Mike.

請轉到幻燈片 13，我會把它交還給 Mike。

Mike?

麥克風？

Thank you, Nick.

謝謝你，尼克。

As I look at 2019, I'm encouraged how our team responded to the challenges we faced in our end markets: stepping up our execution, improving operations and driving strong cash flow as we move through the year.

回顧 2019 年，我對我們的團隊如何應對我們在終端市場面臨的挑戰感到鼓舞：在我們度過這一年的過程中加強執行力、改善運營並推動強勁的現金流。

We finalized the restructuring we announced in April, effectively managed costs and reduced inventory levels by $370 million.

我們完成了 4 月份宣布的重組，有效地管理了成本並將庫存水平降低了 3.7 億美元。

With respect to the full year numbers, organic growth company-wide was minus 1.5%.

就全年數據而言，全公司範圍內的有機增長為負 1.5%。

We posted adjusted earnings of $9.10 per share, which included a $0.21 benefit from the divestiture of our gas and flame detection business.

我們公佈的調整後每股收益為 9.10 美元，其中包括剝離我們的氣體和火焰檢測業務帶來的 0.21 美元收益。

We increased cash flow by 10% year-over-year to $5.4 billion, an all-time high for our enterprise, while delivering a strong conversion rate of 118%.

我們的現金流同比增長 10% 至 54 億美元，創下我們企業的歷史新高，同時實現了 118% 的強勁轉化率。

Additionally, we posted a good return on invested capital of 18%, including the impact of acquisitions.

此外，我們公佈了 18% 的良好投資回報率，包括收購的影響。

In 2019, we also returned $4.7 billion to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

2019 年，我們還通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 47 億美元。

And last year marked our 61st consecutive year of dividend increases.

去年是我們連續第 61 年增加股息。

Please turn to Slide 14.

請轉到幻燈片 14。

Beyond financial results, I view 2019 as a fundamentally significant year for 3M as we implemented major change to position us well for the future.

除了財務業績，我認為 2019 年對 3M 來說是具有根本意義的一年，因為我們實施了重大變革，為未來做好準備。

Earlier, I talked about how we are accelerating the pace of our transformation, and we also made significant progress on our other 3 priorities for long-term growth and value creation.

早些時候，我談到了我們如何加快轉型步伐，我們還在其他 3 個長期增長和價值創造優先事項上取得了重大進展。

I'll make a few comments on each, starting with portfolio.

我將從投資組合開始，對每個進行一些評論。

The ongoing review and reshaping of our portfolio is critical to maximizing value across our company.

對我們產品組合的持續審查和重塑對於實現整個公司的價值至關重要。

Since 2012, we have moved from 40 businesses to 23, while completing more than 10 divestitures and 14 acquisitions.

自 2012 年以來，我們的業務從 40 家增加到 23 家，同時完成了 10 多項資產剝離和 14 項收購。

In 2019, we continued to actively manage our portfolio, with particular progress in strengthening our Health Care business.

2019 年，我們繼續積極管理我們的產品組合，在加強我們的醫療保健業務方面取得了特別進展。

We acquired Acelity, which accelerates 3M as a leader in advanced wound care; along with M*Modal's technology business, an ideal fit within our health information systems business.

我們收購了 Acelity，這加速了 3M 作為高級傷口護理領域領導者的地位；與 M*Modal 的技術業務一起，非常適合我們的健康信息系統業務。

The integration of Acelity is going well, and the business is off to a good start.

Acelity 的整合進展順利，業務開局良好。

And M*Modal is outperforming our expectations for both growth and income.

M*Modal 的表現超出了我們對增長和收入的預期。

We also announced that we will divest our drug delivery business, which will enable us to focus more resources on our core Health Care portfolio.

我們還宣布將剝離我們的藥物輸送業務，這將使我們能夠將更多資源集中在我們的核心醫療保健產品組合上。

Beyond our efforts in Health Care, last year, we sold our gas and flame detection business.

除了我們在醫療保健方面的努力，去年，我們還出售了我們的氣體和火焰檢測業務。

And earlier this month, we finalized the sale of our ballistic-protection business.

本月早些時候，我們完成了防彈業務的出售。

Managing our portfolio is an ongoing process, and we'll continue to act on opportunities to maximize value across 3M.

管理我們的產品組合是一個持續的過程，我們將繼續抓住機會，在 3M 實現價值最大化。

Our next priority is innovation, which is the heart of our enterprise.

我們的下一個優先事項是創新，這是我們企業的核心。

It differentiates 3M in the marketplace and supports organic growth and our long track record of delivering premium margins and return on invested capital.

它使 3M 在市場上脫穎而出，並支持有機增長和我們在提供溢價利潤和投資資本回報方面的長期記錄。

In 2019, we invested $3.6 billion in the combination of R&D and CapEx.

2019 年，我們在研發和資本支出方面投資了 36 億美元。

These investments enable us to invent unique products and solutions and then deliver them efficiently to our customers through our disruptive manufacturing process technologies.

這些投資使我們能夠發明獨特的產品和解決方案，然後通過我們顛覆性的製造工藝技術將它們高效地交付給我們的客戶。

That it is more than the breadth of our technology that sets us apart.

讓我們與眾不同的不僅僅是我們技術的廣度。

It's also our ability to share, combine and apply our technologies across 3M businesses.

這也是我們在 3M 業務中共享、組合和應用我們的技術的能力。

Our adhesives, for example, are in cars and airplanes, electronics and medical tapes and in the products you're most familiar with, such as Command strips and Post-it notes.

例如，我們的粘合劑用於汽車和飛機、電子產品和醫用膠帶以及您最熟悉的產品，例如命令條和便利貼。

And as the needs of our customers evolve, we constantly develop new capabilities and applications to stay at the forefront of innovation.

隨著客戶需求的發展，我們不斷開發新的功能和應用程序，以保持在創新的前沿。

Last year, we expanded our periodic table to 51 technology platforms as we further refined our expertise in areas like metamaterials, computer vision and advanced robotics.

去年，隨著我們進一步完善我們在超材料、計算機視覺和高級機器人等領域的專業知識，我們將元素週期表擴展到 51 個技術平台。

We also continue to see strong returns from investments in our priority growth platforms, which serve emerging and fast-growing markets.

我們還繼續看到我們優先增長平台的投資回報豐厚，這些平台服務於新興市場和快速增長的市場。

For the full year, these platforms grew 10% as we create differentiated solutions for customers around health care, transportation, safety and infrastructure.

全年，隨著我們圍繞醫療保健、交通、安全和基礎設施為客戶創建差異化解決方案，這些平台增長了 10%。

For example, automotive electrification grew 9% as we continue to drive good penetration, with particular strength in automotive displays and lightweighting solutions.

例如，隨著我們繼續推動良好的滲透，汽車電氣化增長了 9%，尤其是在汽車顯示器和輕量化解決方案方面。

Going forward, we will continue to use 3M innovation to solve tough problems for our customers, improve people's lives and help create a more sustainable world.

展望未來，我們將繼續利用 3M 創新為客戶解決棘手問題，改善人們的生活，幫助創造一個更加可持續發展的世界。

Turning now to people and culture, which is foundational to each of our other priorities.

現在轉向人和文化，這是我們其他每個優先事項的基礎。

In 2019, we took significant action to develop our people and invigorate our culture, and the transformation initiatives I discussed earlier are at the center of our efforts.

2019 年，我們採取了重大行動來發展我們的員工和振興我們的文化，而我之前討論的轉型計劃是我們努力的核心。

Our transformation journey is as much a cultural change as it is a technology change.

我們的轉型之旅既是文化變革，也是技術變革。

We are simplifying workflows, equipping our people with new systems and tools and empowering them with more autonomy to make faster decisions.

我們正在簡化工作流程，為我們的員工配備新的系統和工具，並賦予他們更多自主權以更快地做出決策。

Given the level of transformation within 3M, a key focus of our development is managing change, and I am pleased how our team is stepping up to embrace these changes.

鑑於 3M 內部的轉型水平，我們發展的一個關鍵重點是管理變革，我很高興我們的團隊正在加緊迎接這些變革。

At the same time, we are deepening our commitment to 3M's core values, including diversity and inclusion.

與此同時，我們正在加深對 3M 核心價值觀的承諾，包括多元化和包容性。

60% of our top 100 leaders are diverse.

我們的前 100 名領導者中有 60% 是多元化的。

1/3 of our corporate officers and Board members are women, and we are doing more to integrate inclusion into our daily life.

我們 1/3 的公司管理人員和董事會成員是女性，我們正在採取更多措施將包容融入我們的日常生活。

Of course, underpinning everything we do is our code of conduct.

當然，支撐我們所做的一切的是我們的行為準則。

And last year, 3M again was named one of the world's most ethical companies.

去年，3M 再次被評為全球最具商業道德的公司之一。

Overall, I'm pleased with the progress we made against each of our strategic priorities in 2019, and I am confident in how we are positioned heading into 2020.

總的來說，我對我們在 2019 年每個戰略重點方面取得的進展感到滿意，我對我們進入 2020 年的定位充滿信心。

Please turn to Slide 15.

請轉到幻燈片 15。

As a result of our work, we are well positioned to return to growth in 2020.

由於我們的工作，我們有能力在 2020 年恢復增長。

Our plan reflects our improved performance and an expectation for low but positive global macroeconomic growth.

我們的計劃反映了我們改進的業績以及對全球宏觀經濟低增長但積極增長的預期。

We anticipate organic growth of flat to 2%, along with earnings of $9.30 to $9.75 per share.

我們預計有機增長持平至 2%，每股收益為 9.30 美元至 9.75 美元。

We expect another year of robust cash flow, with a conversion rate of 95% to 105%.

我們預計又是一年強勁的現金流，轉換率為 95% 至 105%。

Finally, we anticipate a strong return on invested capital of 18% to 21%.

最後，我們預計投資資本回報率將達到 18% 至 21%。

In the appendix of our slide presentation, you will find additional details on our guidance, including a breakdown of our expectations for organic growth by business group and area.

在我們幻燈片演示的附錄中，您將找到有關我們指南的更多詳細信息，包括我們按業務集團和領域對有機增長的預期細分。

Before turning to Q&A, I have one additional announcement.

在開始問答環節之前，我有一個額外的公告。

Our Executive Vice President of International, Julie Bushman, has informed us of her intent to retire in April.

我們的國際執行副總裁 Julie Bushman 已告知我們她打算在 4 月退休。

Throughout her 36 years at 3M, Julie has been an exceptional leader and has created tremendous value for our company and our shareholders.

在 3M 的 36 年中，Julie 一直是一位傑出的領導者，為我們的公司和股東創造了巨大的價值。

Julie's leadership has been invaluable throughout her time leading our international team, including her role in working closely with me to lead the transformation announcements we discussed today.

在她領導我們的國際團隊期間，朱莉的領導能力是無價的，包括她與我密切合作，領導我們今天討論的轉型公告。

I thank Julie for her many years of service and many contributions.

我感謝朱莉多年的服務和許多貢獻。

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now take your questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束，現在我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

As far as the -- I mean, there's some noise out there with this virus in China and stuff, and you sell a fair amount of products into -- that benefit.

至於——我的意思是，在中國和其他地方有一些關於這種病毒的噪音，你向其中銷售了相當多的產品——這種好處。

But at the same time, there's some offsets and slower growth in China overall.

但與此同時，中國總體上存在一些抵消和增長放緩。

But when you think about, Mike, the cadence of returning growth in 2020, is there a sense of when?

但是，邁克，當你想到 2020 年恢復增長的節奏時，是否有一種何時的感覺？

Is it 1Q as you start to get into some easier comps?

當你開始進入一些更簡單的組合時，它是 1Q 嗎？

Or is it more towards the back end of the year?

還是更接近年底？

So Scott, I would start with -- the model for returning to growth in 2020 is based on that broader macro, that outlook for the broader macro.

所以斯科特，我首先要說的是——2020 年恢復增長的模型是基於更廣泛的宏觀經濟，即更廣泛宏觀經濟的前景。

It also is looking at some of those key markets that we talked about that were challenges for us in 2019.

它還關注我們談到的一些關鍵市場，這些市場在 2019 年對我們構成了挑戰。

China, for example, one of the challenges in 2019.

例如，中國是 2019 年的挑戰之一。

We see that in our model for 2020 returning to low to mid-single-digit growth for the total year.

我們在我們的 2020 年模型中看到，全年將恢復到中低個位數增長。

In both cases, I would say, we see growth strengthening as we move through the year.

在這兩種情況下，我想說的是，隨著我們度過這一年，我們看到增長在加強。

So Q1, positive growth for the overall enterprise in the middle range -- middle of the overall guidance of the range, maybe a little slightly lower end of the guidance of the range.

所以第一季度，整體企業在中間範圍內的正增長 - 範圍整體指導的中間，可能略低於範圍指導。

And China, in particular, before we got to the last couple of weeks with the coronavirus really becoming the focus, we were looking at a sluggish start to China in first quarter really based on automotive, and the build rate's expected to be down mid-single digits and maybe even high single digits.

尤其是中國，在我們進入冠狀病毒真正成為焦點的最後幾週之前，我們看到中國第一季度的低迷開局實際上是基於汽車，而且建造率預計將在中期下降個位數，甚至可能是高個位數。

And so it's -- that was kind of our pacing.

所以它 - 這是我們的節奏。

Now coronavirus, it's kind of changing things as we go.

現在冠狀病毒，它在我們前進的過程中正在改變一些事情。

And we're seeing what you're seeing.

我們正在看到你所看到的。

We're seeing increased demand for our respiratory protection products, and we're ramping up our production worldwide, in China, around the world to meet that demand.

我們看到對呼吸防護產品的需求不斷增加，我們正在全球、中國和世界各地提高產量以滿足這種需求。

At the same time, we're seeing what everybody else is seeing, that there's -- the businesses are shutting down, extending their shutdown beyond Lunar New Year.

與此同時，我們看到了其他人所看到的——企業正在關閉，將關閉時間延長到農曆新年之後。

So we're really watching day to day what that's going to mean for our outlook for China.

所以我們真的每天都在關注這對我們對中國的前景意味著什麼。

But I'll give you kind of the frame we had and then how we're kind of looking at it as we see the updates day by day.

但我會給你一些我們擁有的框架，然後我們會如何看待它，因為我們每天都會看到更新。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful, Mike.

這很有幫助，邁克。

And just as a quick follow-up.

就像快速跟進一樣。

Will Acelity be accretive to your growth rate in 2020?

Acelity 會增加您在 2020 年的增長率嗎？

Will that be above your guidance range, in your view?

在您看來，這會超出您的指導範圍嗎？

So Scott, this is Nick.

斯科特，這是尼克。

We -- Acelity is, of course, incorporated in the guidance that we're giving there.

我們——當然，Acelity 已納入我們在那裡提供的指導中。

Throughout the year, most of its growth will be coming through what we report for acquisitions versus organic growth.

全年，其大部分增長將來自我們報告的收購與有機增長。

But when we compare it to the underlying growth that was a revenue that was there before we acquired it, we see its growth as accretive to the overall 3M growth rate that we're projecting.

但是，當我們將其與我們收購之前的收入基礎增長進行比較時，我們認為它的增長會增加我們預測的 3M 整體增長率。

Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nigel Coe 與 Wolfe Research 的合作。

Hey, so just wanted to touch on the additional PFAS charge here.

嘿，所以只想在這裡談談額外的 PFAS 費用。

I mean, I think I understand the Alabama and Illinois plant issues, but what's the trigger for the customer litigation charge?

我的意思是，我想我了解阿拉巴馬州和伊利諾伊州的工廠問題，但客戶訴訟費用的觸發因素是什麼？

I mean, obviously, it has to be a trigger to get you to recognize that charge.

我的意思是，很明顯，它必須是讓你認識到這一指控的觸發因素。

Maybe just touch on -- there's obviously a lot of speculation about EPA regulation.

也許只是觸及 - 顯然有很多關於 EPA 監管的猜測。

Where do you stand on that issue?

你在這個問題上的立場是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So maybe I'll take the charge first, Nigel.

所以也許我會先負責，奈傑爾。

So we played out in the prepared remarks that there are 2 aspects to the charge.

因此，我們在準備好的評論中指出，指控有兩個方面。

One is our ongoing commitment to resolve the issues where we manufacture and dispose of PFAS.

一是我們持續致力於解決我們製造和處置 PFAS 的問題。

The other part of the charge is related to really ongoing negotiations with customers [and -- as] part of our commitment is to do our part to help customers address the PFAS issues they face.

另一部分費用與與客戶真正持續的談判有關，[並且——作為我們承諾的一部分，我們將儘自己的一份力量幫助客戶解決他們面臨的 PFAS 問題。

And we've got -- our negotiations and mediation is far enough along that we can identify what's probable and estimable around a group of customer.

而且我們已經 - 我們的談判和調解已經足夠遠，我們可以確定圍繞一組客戶的可能和估計的內容。

It's multiple customers.

這是多個客戶。

It does account for the Wolverine cases that we've been -- we've talked about in the past, but it's multiple customers, and really the next step of what we can understand is probable and estimable.

它確實解釋了我們一直在討論的金剛狼案例——我們過去曾討論過，但它是多個客戶，我們真正可以理解的下一步是可能和可估計的。

So then in working with -- one of the commitments we did make in it last fall is to work in support of the EPA as we move forward with their regulatory plan around PFAS.

因此，在與我們合作時——我們去年秋天所做的其中一項承諾是，在我們推進他們圍繞 PFAS 的監管計劃時，支持 EPA。

They've got a -- they've laid out a plan to move forward.

他們有一個——他們已經制定了一個前進的計劃。

We are working to support that with our investment in research and understanding -- helping the understanding of PFAS, providing our data and really doing things like helping to provide a clearinghouse for all of the information and data around PFAS.

我們正在努力通過我們在研究和理解方面的投資來支持這一點——幫助理解 PFAS，提供我們的數據，並真正做一些事情，比如幫助為所有關於 PFAS 的信息和數據提供一個信息交換所。

And so we continue to be working in support of the EPA and our work on our resolving our manufacturing disposal sites and then also on moving the regulatory standards forward.

因此，我們將繼續努力支持 EPA 和我們解決我們的製造處置場所的工作，然後也推動監管標準向前發展。

A quick follow-on, on the 2020 guidance.

關於 2020 年指南的快速跟進。

On the cash flow, the $5.3 billion to $6 billion of free cash flow, are you simply assuming delevering of the balance sheet in the bridge?

在現金流方面，53 億至 60 億美元的自由現金流，您是否只是假設在橋樑中去槓桿化資產負債表？

Yes.

是的。

Nigel, when -- as we ended '19, we had debt-to-EBITDA ratio of roughly -- just a little over 2.5x.

奈傑爾，當我們結束 19 年時，我們的債務與 EBITDA 的比率大致為 - 略高於 2.5 倍。

We see that coming down probably about 50 basis points to be 2 or just slightly over 2x debt to EBITDA.

我們看到債務與 EBITDA 的比率可能下降約 50 個基點至 2 倍或略高於 2 倍。

So that's part of our overall capital structure planning in 2020.

因此，這是我們 2020 年整體資本結構規劃的一部分。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬里奇。

Mike, can you expand a little bit on the commentary on this, the new restructuring initiatives that you have in place and how that differs from business transformation?

邁克，你能否進一步闡述一下對此的評論，你已經實施的新重組計劃以及它與業務轉型有何不同？

Fully recognizing that it sounds like you're streamlining the organization as well, but any additional color you can provide there would be helpful.

充分認識到聽起來您也在精簡組織，但是您可以提供的任何其他顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes.

是的。

And Joe, what I laid out is really the next phase of our transformation journey, and it's taking advantage of everything that we've done, deploying the ERP, the ecosystem around it, the service models that we put in place, the capabilities -- the technical capabilities to really manage our business, digitize a lot of what we do to manage our operations and our business processes.

喬，我提出的實際上是我們轉型之旅的下一階段，它正在利用我們所做的一切，部署 ERP，圍繞它的生態系統，我們實施的服務模型，能力 - - 真正管理我們業務的技術能力，將我們為管理運營和業務流程所做的許多工作數字化。

And so it became clear that we could take full advantage of that with how we operate our businesses globally.

因此很明顯，我們可以充分利用我們在全球運營業務的方式。

And last spring, we announced moving from 5 to 4 businesses.

去年春天，我們宣布從 5 家企業轉移到 4 家企業。

At the time, it was -- it looked like a realignment of the company, but where does it go?

當時，它是——它看起來像是公司的重組，但它去哪兒了？

And this is really the next part of the story.

這真的是故事的下一部分。

We aligned around our customers and our go-to-market models.

我們圍繞我們的客戶和我們的上市模型進行調整。

And with the launch in the new year of the new model, we are going to operate globally around those go-to-market models.

隨著新模型在新的一年推出，我們將圍繞這些上市模型在全球開展業務。

And that includes how we operate our businesses everywhere around the world; it includes taking advantage of the capabilities we put in place with business transformation; and then it also includes this really consolidation of our manufacturing, supply chain and customer operations end-to-end to really optimize for those go-to-market models.

這包括我們在世界各地經營業務的方式；它包括利用我們在業務轉型中所具備的能力；然後它還包括我們端到端的製造、供應鍊和客戶運營的真正整合，以真正優化那些進入市場的模型。

So it's a significant change in really how we align the customers, how we bring our innovation to market, how we streamline and simplify 3M around the world.

因此，這對我們如何調整客戶、如何將創新推向市場、如何精簡和簡化 3M 在全球的方式來說是一個重大變化。

It is taking advantage of business transformation, but it's really multiplying that impact as we move ahead.

它正在利用業務轉型，但隨著我們的前進，它確實使這種影響倍增。

Okay.

好的。

And then maybe just my follow-on, focused on the Transportation and Electronics segment.

然後也許只是我的後續行動，專注於運輸和電子領域。

Clearly, that's a segment that has -- had a tough 2019, and I think that there's some optimism in 2020 that we'll potentially start to see a rebound, particularly in the electronics side of things.

顯然，這是一個在 2019 年表現不佳的細分市場，我認為 2020 年有一些樂觀情緒，我們可能會開始看到反彈，尤其是在電子產品方面。

And so if we were to start to see better growth, what kind of operating leverage would you guys expect to see out of that business?

因此，如果我們開始看到更好的增長，你們希望從該業務中看到什麼樣的運營槓桿？

And in your commentary, Mike, earlier around positive organic growth in the first quarter, is this a segment that is also going to be positive in Q1?

在你的評論中，邁克，早些時候圍繞第一季度的正有機增長，這是一個在第一季度也將實現正增長的細分市場嗎？

Yes, Joe, let me take that one.

是的，喬，讓我拿那個。

First of all, from -- to the second part of your question, Transportation and Electronics.

首先，從 - 到問題的第二部分，運輸和電子。

We've -- for the year, we've guided that negative 2% to positive 2% organic growth.

今年，我們已經將負 2% 的有機增長引導至正 2% 的有機增長。

Our view right now is we see all 4 quarters in that range right now.

我們現在的觀點是，我們現在看到該範圍內的所有 4 個季度。

And just to go a little off track, the Safety and Industrial business is the only one that we see a potential that, that one would be below its range in the first quarter and then in the next 3 quarters within the range that we've guided.

只是有點偏離軌道，安全和工業業務是我們唯一看到的潛力，該業務將在第一季度低於其範圍，然後在接下來的 3 個季度內低於我們的範圍引導。

As far as leverage that we expect in Transportation and Electronics, this is one of the businesses where, as we see us returning to growth in that, that this would be accretive and would be adding to our leverage that we see that.

就我們期望在運輸和電子領域的槓桿作用而言，這是我們看到我們恢復增長的業務之一，這將增加我們看到的槓桿作用。

A specific percentage, I'm -- we typically don't put out, but it would be beneficial, and we'd see the margins -- the accretive margins, they're very similar to what we see for the total company.

一個特定的百分比，我 - 我們通常不會推出，但這將是有益的，我們會看到利潤率 - 增加的利潤率，它們與我們對整個公司的看法非常相似。

That -- as we rebuild the revenue there, that we would be seeing that -- maybe an extra 10% going to increasing the margin as that -- as the revenue improves there.

那——當我們在那裡重建收入時，我們會看到——隨著那裡收入的改善，可能會增加 10% 的利潤率。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Obin。

This is David Ridley-Lane on for Andrew.

這是安德魯的大衛雷德利萊恩。

Can you provide details on how your core gross margin will trend in 2020, given the unusual inventory-related effects in 2019?

鑑於 2019 年與庫存相關的異常影響，您能否提供有關 2020 年核心毛利率趨勢的詳細信息？

Yes, the gross margins and our overall margins, but a part of -- a big part of it will be our -- through our gross margin improvement.

是的，毛利率和我們的整體利潤率，但其中很大一部分將是我們的毛利率提高。

We see overall operating margins improving 50 to 100 basis points in 2020.

我們預計 2020 年整體營業利潤率將提高 50 至 100 個基點。

And in the first quarter, we expect them to be roughly flat prior to the impact of Acelity.

在第一季度，我們預計在 Acelity 的影響之前它們將大致持平。

Acelity, we again, we -- because that was not part of our base in the first quarter, we expect that will be a negative impact to our total company margins of about 100 basis points in the first quarter.

Acelity，我們再次，我們 - 因為這不是我們第一季度基礎的一部分，我們預計這將對我們第一季度的公司總利潤率產生約 100 個基點的負面影響。

And it will impact Health Care's margins by 400 to 500 basis points in the first quarter.

它將在第一季度影響 Health Care 的利潤率 400 到 500 個基點。

But the underlying margins in first quarter, excluding that, we see roughly flat and then some expansion because our primary inventory reductions that we were executing were occurring in the second, third and fourth quarter.

但第一季度的基本利潤率，不包括在內，我們看到大致持平，然後出現一些擴張，因為我們正在執行的主要庫存削減發生在第二、第三和第四季度。

And as we move into that range, then we -- that's when we expect to be seeing margin expansion, particularly gross margin expansion, in 2020.

當我們進入該範圍時，我們將在 2020 年看到利潤率增長，尤其是毛利率增長。

Got it.

知道了。

And for the follow-up, what are the sort of tailwinds you see within Health Care?

對於後續行動，您在醫療保健領域看到了什麼樣的順風？

And do you see potential upside to the 2% to 4% organic guidance for the full year as you get to the second half of the year?

當你進入今年下半年時，你是否看到全年 2% 到 4% 的有機指導有潛在的上升空間？

Yes.

是的。

If you look at 2020, David, Health Care is going to be a leader for growth for us, and that is really on some of the strengths that we saw coming out of 2019.

如果你看看 2020 年，大衛，醫療保健將成為我們增長的領導者，這實際上是基於我們在 2019 年看到的一些優勢。

We see continued strength in health information systems and with the M*Modal addition being part of that in our food safety business.

我們看到健康信息系統的持續發展，而 M*Modal 的加入是我們食品安全業務的一部分。

Our medical solutions business, we see that benefiting from the strong market -- outlook for market growth in Health Care.

我們的醫療解決方案業務，我們看到受益於強勁的市場——醫療保健市場增長的前景。

And so we see -- and again, I would say, continued strength in developing markets, helping to lead that growth forward.

因此，我們看到——我要說的是，發展中市場的持續強勁，有助於引領這種增長向前發展。

So it's some of the areas that we saw strengths in 2019.

因此，這是我們在 2019 年看到優勢的一些領域。

And then some of the things that we've been able to build upon with our acquisitions and leverage even stronger positions against a good macroeconomic outlook.

然後是我們能夠通過收購建立的一些東西，並利用更強大的地位來對抗良好的宏觀經濟前景。

Our next question comes from the line of John Inch with Gordon Haskett.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Inch 和 Gordon Haskett 的台詞。

Can we start on the EPS road map, Slide 27?

我們可以從 EPS 路線圖 Slide 27 開始嗎？

So you've dialed in minus $0.25 for 2019 headwinds.

因此，您已經為 2019 年的不利因素撥了 0.25 美元。

I think it's interesting it's not a range.

我認為這很有趣，它不是一個範圍。

It's an exact, precise number.

這是一個精確的數字。

What exactly is in that?

那裡面到底是什麼？

For example, like our compensation headwinds, so having to pay people more money, is that in there?

例如，就像我們的薪酬逆風一樣，所以不得不付給人們更多的錢，是嗎？

And anything you could say on that?

對此你有什麼要說的嗎？

Was there flex around it?

它周圍有彎曲嗎？

What is going on there?

那裡發生了什麼？

Yes, John, there's 2 precise things in there, which is why it's not a range.

是的，約翰，那裡有 2 個精確的東西，這就是為什麼它不是一個範圍。

About 1/3 of that is from gains we took in 2019 on disposal of certain properties, certain assets we had that I talked about during our third quarter earnings call.

其中約 1/3 來自我們在 2019 年處置某些財產和我在第三季度財報電話會議上談到的某些資產所獲得的收益。

The other 2/3 of that, John, is coming from variable compensation.

約翰，另外 2/3 來自可變薪酬。

With our results that were delivering -- delivered in 2019, our variable comp is below our planned variable comp level.

根據我們交付的結果——2019 年交付，我們的可變補償低於我們計劃的可變補償水平。

And we've built our plan for 2020 that we would be returning to planned variable comp.

我們已經制定了 2020 年的計劃，我們將返回計劃的可變補償。

And that's why we're calling that out as a 2019 headwind.

這就是為什麼我們將其稱為 2019 年的不利因素。

And can I ask you, Nick, why is that fixed?

我能問你嗎，尼克，為什麼那是固定的？

For instance, let's just say the economy got better as 2020 progressed and you did much better than your 0% to 2% core growth.

例如，假設經濟隨著 2020 年的進展而變得更好，並且你的表現比 0% 到 2% 的核心增長要好得多。

Does that variable number also not dial up?

難道那個可變號碼也不撥號？

Or is it kind of a fixed bonus?

或者它是一種固定的獎金？

Like, why wouldn't the $0.25 possibly dial a little bit higher as a drag?

就像，為什麼 0.25 美元不會作為拖累而上漲一點？

Yes.

是的。

So in 2020, if we start to see our compensation being different than that, then our normal practice would be that becomes part of productivity.

因此，到 2020 年，如果我們開始看到我們的薪酬與此不同，那麼我們的正常做法將是這成為生產力的一部分。

So if we are paying more than our planned variable comp, that would become a headwind to our productivity that we're projecting in 2020.

因此，如果我們支付的費用超過計劃的可變薪酬，那將成為我們預計 2020 年生產力的不利因素。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just as a follow-up, Nick, can you remind us what's going on -- or Mike, what's going on in Europe?

然後作為後續行動，尼克，你能提醒我們發生了什麼——或者邁克，歐洲發生了什麼？

I had in my notes -- I thought that you were sort of on deck to maybe downsize your European footprint, I think pro forma, like about 1/3 of production facilities, with a lot of this happening in the back half of '19.

我在我的筆記中有——我認為你在某種程度上可能會縮減你在歐洲的足跡，我認為形式上，比如大約 1/3 的生產設施，很多這樣的事情發生在 19 年的下半年.

Where do we stand on that?

我們的立場是什麼？

And I noticed that, for instance, Europe on the core sequentially got worse.

我注意到，例如，處於核心地位的歐洲依次變得更糟。

Was that actually -- was that self-inflicted because of this associated internal disruption or actions?

這實際上是因為相關的內部中斷或行為而造成的嗎？

Or is there something else?

還是有別的東西？

Just is it just macro in Europe?

僅僅是歐洲的宏觀經濟嗎？

Just where do we stand in Europe overall and the runway even to your 20% plus margins that you talked about at the last Analyst Meeting, Nick?

尼克，我們在整個歐洲以及你在上次分析師會議上談到的 20% 以上的利潤率究竟處於什麼位置？

Yes.

是的。

John, thanks for asking that question.

約翰，謝謝你提出這個問題。

And there are several moving parts in there.

那裡有幾個活動部件。

First, let me talk to the margin, and then I'll talk to the growth.

首先，讓我談談利潤率，然後再談談增長。

2019 was a very good year of progress for us, with our operating income margins again expanding in Europe to approximately 19%, very much along the trajectory that we were projecting that we would be on to be moving this to a 20% operating income margin by 2020.

2019 年對我們來說是進展非常順利的一年，我們在歐洲的營業收入利潤率再次擴大至約 19%，與我們預測的將營業收入利潤率提高到 20% 的軌跡非常吻合到 2020 年。

As part of that, we've been taking a number of action over the last few years.

作為其中的一部分，我們在過去幾年中採取了一些行動。

Some of them had been footprint actions, and we are starting to see some of that benefit manifest in our 2019 results going forward into 2020.

其中一些是足跡行動，我們開始在 2019 年到 2020 年的結果中看到其中的一些好處。

Also, there's been some portfolio adjustments, where there are certain product lines where we've been going through and prioritizing and deciding either to exit or to de-prioritize and de-resource.

此外，還有一些投資組合調整，在某些產品線中，我們一直在經歷並確定優先級並決定退出或取消優先級和資源。

And as we look at our organic growth in 2019 as well as, in particular, you're asking about fourth quarter of 2019, that's been impacted.

當我們審視 2019 年的有機增長時，尤其是您詢問 2019 年第四季度時，它受到了影響。

Impacted by 50 to 100 basis points of organic growth by some of our -- what we have planned and done from a portfolio standpoint as part of our move to shift our portfolio in Europe.

受到我們的一些有機增長 50 到 100 個基點的影響 - 我們從投資組合的角度計劃和做的事情是我們在歐洲轉移投資組合的一部分。

Much of the rest has been macro of what we're seeing.

其餘大部分都是我們所看到的宏觀。

Plus, a little bit right now what we're seeing in the fourth quarter is a comparison that we're going against fourth quarter last year in Europe.

另外，現在我們在第四季度看到的是我們與去年第四季度在歐洲進行的比較。

This was very much in the range we're expecting.

這非常符合我們的預期。

But macro, we're continuing to see auto builds down in Europe, and that does impact our overall EMEA results.

但宏觀上，我們繼續看到歐洲的汽車生產下降，這確實影響了我們在 EMEA 的整體業績。

But EMEA is up.

但是 EMEA 已經起來了。

Do you think it hits your 20% target in 2020 or maybe even a little bit better?

你認為它會在 2020 年達到你 20% 的目標，甚至更好一點嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We see ourselves very much in line to be hitting that.

我們認為自己非常有可能實現這一目標。

Could be a little ahead, but I wouldn't get too far ahead on that.

可能有點超前，但我不會超前太多。

We see ourselves right in line to be hitting that.

我們認為自己正好符合這一目標。

Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Deane Dray 與 RBC Capital Markets 的對話。

Mike, I was hoping to circle back on the restructuring announcement today, and I wanted to put it in context with what we're seeing across the multi-industry sector, where a number of companies are pursuing simplification via larger spinouts; bigger, bolder moves versus kind of what I would characterize at 3M has been more surgical.

邁克，我希望今天再談一下重組公告，我想把它與我們在多行業領域看到的情況結合起來，在這個領域，許多公司正在通過更大的分拆來尋求簡化；與我在 3M 描述的那種更大、更大膽的舉措相比，它更具手術性。

Have you looked -- as a result, you look more like an outlier in terms of your simplification approach.

你有沒有看過 - 結果，就你的簡化方法而言，你看起來更像是一個異常值。

Is it -- what's your response there?

是——你的回應是什麼？

Is it really company-specific?

真的是公司特有的嗎？

Are there opportunities to do something bigger?

有機會做更大的事情嗎？

Is that -- might be another next phase?

那是 - 可能是另一個下一階段嗎？

But if you could give us some color there, that would be helpful.

但如果你能給我們一些顏色，那會很有幫助。

Yes, Deane.

是的，迪恩。

We -- what I framed it up is this is part of our transformation journey.

我們——我認為這是我們轉型之旅的一部分。

And if you look back, even back to the Investor Day in November of 2018, we laid out a plan for margin improvement over our -- over the coming years, and a big part of that was from transformation.

如果你回顧過去，甚至回到 2018 年 11 月的投資者日，我們制定了未來幾年提高利潤率的計劃，其中很大一部分來自轉型。

So there was a plan by us to really keep moving forward in this.

所以我們制定了一個計劃，在這方面真正繼續前進。

This announcement today is the next phase of that plan to move forward with an alignment around those 4 go-to-market models, our customers, better leverage, all the business transformation investments we put in place.

今天的公告是該計劃的下一階段，該計劃將圍繞這 4 種上市模式、我們的客戶、更好的槓桿作用以及我們實施的所有業務轉型投資進行調整。

And we are optimizing as we go.

我們正在不斷優化。

We're building on the capabilities we've put in place.

我們正在建立我們已經具備的能力。

You saw that in 2019 start to come through our EMEA and Canada results in terms of margins and service and inventory management improving there.

你看到，在 2019 年，我們的 EMEA 和加拿大在利潤率、服務和庫存管理方面的結果開始得到改善。

We -- it was part of getting on top of inventory in North America too, as we deployed the new capabilities.

當我們部署新功能時，我們——這也是控制北美庫存的一部分。

And so I wouldn't call it a -- I wouldn't think of it as a -- one step in the middle of this.

因此，我不會將其稱為——我不會將其視為——中間的一步。

It's part of our transformation journey.

這是我們轉型之旅的一部分。

And so we'll continue to optimize off of this.

因此，我們將繼續對此進行優化。

This is -- enables -- the charge that we took in Q4 enables us to move quickly to the alignment, get the full benefit of it as we go forward.

這是 - 啟用 - 我們在第四季度進行的收費使我們能夠快速轉向對齊，並在我們前進的過程中充分利用它。

It's really, we think, going to be an important part of what positions us to deliver growth and better efficiency as we go through 2020 and beyond.

我們認為，這確實將成為我們在 2020 年及以後實現增長和提高效率的重要組成部分。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just staying on the restructuring, the payback for 2019, did -- that's $40 million to $50 million in savings.

然後繼續進行重組，2019 年的投資回報就做到了——節省了 4000 萬到 5000 萬美元。

Just based upon the size of the restructuring that seems a slower payback, does that have more to do with the timing of how you'll do these reductions?

僅基於似乎回報較慢的重組規模，這是否與您將如何進行這些削減的時間有更多關係？

Yes, Deane, that -- it really is a function of this.

是的，迪恩，這確實是一個功能。

As we move to streamline the -- our operations there, not all of it is happening right away.

當我們開始精簡我們在那裡的業務時，並不是所有的事情都會馬上發生。

There's parts of it that phase in over the course of the year, and that's why it's only having a $40 million to $50 million impact.

它的某些部分會在一年中逐步出現，這就是為什麼它只有 4000 萬到 5000 萬美元的影響。

Some of it, a minority position, part of that will come in the first half of the year.

其中一些，少數職位，其中一部分將在今年上半年出現。

The vast majority of that $40 million to $50 million comes in the second half of the year.

這 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元中的絕大部分來自今年下半年。

Our next question comes from the line of John Walsh with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Walsh 與 Crédit Suisse 的對話。

Wanted to talk about the price performance in the quarter and -- specific to the U.S., but happy if you want to broaden it out.

想談談本季度的價格表現——具體到美國，但如果你想擴大範圍，我會很高興。

As we think about that 1.7% price increase, that's a higher number than we've seen here in the past.

當我們考慮 1.7% 的價格上漲時，這個數字比我們過去在這裡看到的要高。

Is that price because of innovation and sustainable?

那個價格是因為創新而可持續嗎？

Or did you hold price, and that was kind of impacting why the volume was down in the U.S.?

或者你是否持有價格，這在某種程度上影響了美國交易量下降的原因？

John, the price growth -- first of all, let me expand it to the full year for U.S. price growth.

約翰，價格增長——首先，讓我將其擴大到美國價格增長的全年。

With that 1.7%, that brings our full year price growth to 80 basis points.

憑藉這 1.7%，我們的全年價格增長達到 80 個基點。

John, I think that's the more helpful number for you to look at and focus on.

約翰，我認為這是對你關注和關注更有幫助的數字。

Often, in a quarter-to-quarter basis, there's going to be what is it comparing to in the quarter in the prior year.

通常，在一個季度到一個季度的基礎上，與上一年的季度相比會有什麼變化。

So I wouldn't overreact to the 1.7%.

所以我不會對 1.7% 反應過度。

Our view is the 80 basis points that we did in the U.S. in total 2019, that's indicative of what we're doing.

我們的觀點是我們在 2019 年總共在美國所做的 80 個基點，這表明我們正在做的事情。

And to the first premise of your question, what we overall see in price growth is a function of the value we are creating.

對於你問題的第一個前提，我們總體上看到的價格增長是我們創造的價值的函數。

It's the innovation we have in our products and continuing to update the product lines and the products that we offer there.

這是我們在產品中的創新，並不斷更新我們在那裡提供的產品線和產品。

And that is a big driver of that.

這是一個很大的驅動力。

But I wouldn't focus on the 1.7%.

但我不會關注那 1.7%。

I'd focus more on the full year, the 80 basis points.

我會更關注全年，即 80 個基點。

Got you.

明白了

And then maybe coming at the flat to up 2% organic, just a different way.

然後可能會以不同的方式在公寓裡增加 2% 的有機率。

If we think about 2019, particularly on the automotive side, you did have some impact from channel inventory destocking.

如果我們考慮 2019 年，尤其是在汽車方面，渠道庫存去庫存確實會產生一些影響。

I don't know if it's possible, but have you thought about what the growth rate would look like just with the absence of those headwinds?

我不知道這是否可能，但你有沒有想過如果沒有這些逆風，增長率會是什麼樣子？

And how much of that kind of flat to 2% is just a normalization versus the macro getting any better?

這種持平到 2% 的情況有多少只是正常化，而宏觀經濟正在好轉？

Yes.

是的。

John, the return to growth of 0% to 2%, that is really reflecting both the macro and then I think a closer look at the markets that we've been challenged with in 2019.

約翰，增長恢復到 0% 到 2%，這確實反映了宏觀，然後我想仔細看看我們在 2019 年面臨挑戰的市場。

So electronics, automotive, China.

所以電子，汽車，中國。

And in 2019, as you noted, there was an impact from channel reactions.

正如您所指出的，在 2019 年，渠道反應產生了影響。

As they saw the decline in those markets, they reacted, took out inventory.

當他們看到這些市場的下滑時，他們做出了反應，拿出了庫存。

So part of the year-over-year, in those markets, comparison is going to be a more stable channel.

因此，與去年同期相比，在這些市場中，比較將成為一個更穩定的渠道。

We do see more balanced inventory in those channels.

我們確實在這些渠道中看到了更平衡的庫存。

I would say electronics, we're seeing the early signs of maybe some encouraging outlook in areas like semiconductor, fabrication and data centers.

我想說的是電子行業，我們在半導體、製造和數據中心等領域看到了一些令人鼓舞的前景的早期跡象。

In automotive, the outlook for the year is still negative build rates.

在汽車行業，今年的前景仍然是負建造率。

Slightly negative, I think, is the broader economic view.

我認為，更廣泛的經濟觀點略顯消極。

We're a little more conservative than that in a slower start to the year.

在今年開局較慢的情況下，我們比這更保守一些。

But again, I would say our view is -- also has that idea of balanced inventory in the face of those outlooks.

但我要說的是，我們的觀點是——面對這些前景，我們也有平衡庫存的想法。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的安德魯·卡普洛維茨。

Mike and Nick, can we go back to Health Care for a second?

邁克和尼克，我們可以再回到醫療保健領域嗎？

I know that you changed the reporting last year and put separation and purification, and that's in growth a little bit.

我知道你去年改變了報告，把分離和純化放在一起，這有點增長。

But you, I'm sure, recall that Health Care was supposed to be a 2% to 4% grower in '19 and reported a little under 2%, and the 4% to 6% due '23.

但是，我敢肯定，你記得醫療保健在 19 年應該是 2% 到 4% 的增長者，但報告略低於 2%，而 23 年到期的是 4% 到 6%。

So I know you're saying 2% to 4% for 2020.

所以我知道你說的是 2020 年 2% 到 4%。

Has the impact on Health Care just been, I guess, unexpected cyclicality?

我猜對醫療保健的影響是否只是意想不到的周期性？

Or have you sort of reassessed the long-term growth of the business?

或者您是否重新評估了業務的長期增長？

And is there any sort of thought about accelerating portfolio optimization in that particular business beyond selling drug delivery?

除了銷售藥物遞送之外，是否有任何關於加速該特定業務的投資組合優化的想法？

Well, Andy, I would say, as I highlighted in my speech, we have been focused with our portfolio actions on Health Care.

好吧，安迪，我想說的是，正如我在演講中強調的那樣，我們一直專注於我們在醫療保健方面的投資組合行動。

As you mentioned, drug delivery and the plan to divest that, adding Acelity, adding M*Modal into our health information systems.

正如您提到的，藥物輸送和剝離藥物輸送的計劃，添加 Acelity，將 M*Modal 添加到我們的健康信息系統中。

And if you go back to Q4, the growth -- organic growth in Q4 was positive across most of the portfolio.

如果你回到第四季度，增長——第四季度的有機增長在大多數投資組合中都是積極的。

It was led by mid-single-digit growth in health information systems and food safety.

它是由健康信息系統和食品安全的中等個位數增長帶動的。

Medical solutions was up slightly in the quarter.

醫療解決方案在本季度略有上升。

Oral care declined in the low single digits.

口腔護理以低個位數下降。

And so that was maybe the focus of the softer growth in Q4.

因此，這可能是第四季度增長放緩的焦點。

We did see strong growth geographically in areas like China and other parts of the world.

我們確實在中國和世界其他地區等地區看到了強勁的地理增長。

So that's kind of what we carry into 2020.

這就是我們進入 2020 年的目標。

And we see medical solutions improving.

我們看到醫療解決方案正在改進。

The market outlook there is strong, and our position is strong.

那裡的市場前景強勁，我們的地位也很穩固。

We see health information, food safety continuing.

我們看到健康信息、食品安全仍在繼續。

We see separation and purification getting a little better.

我們看到分離和純化越來越好。

And so we -- all of that together positions us in a stronger growth for the outlook for the total year.

因此，我們 - 所有這些共同使我們在全年前景中實現更強勁的增長。

Mike, that's helpful.

邁克，這很有幫助。

And then, Nick, just looking at the walk for 2020 again.

然後，尼克，再看看 2020 年的步行。

Do you still see the potential for additional property sales?

您是否仍然看到額外的房地產銷售潛力？

So there may be an element of conservatism in that item?

那麼該項目中可能存在保守主義因素嗎？

And then you talked about a pretty wide range for this year in terms of productivity impacts from $0 to $0.25.

然後你談到今年對生產力的影響範圍很廣，從 0 美元到 0.25 美元不等。

It seems that's like a little higher than usual.

好像比平時高了一點。

Is productivity more dependent on what organic growth is this year and that's why it's a little hard to pin down in 2020?

生產力是否更依賴於今年的有機增長，這就是為什麼很難確定 2020 年的生產力？

Andy, I just want to make sure you asked -- the potential for other property sales.

安迪，我只是想確定你問過——其他房產銷售的潛力。

And if that's what you said, no, we're not anticipating anything of any material magnitude on gains or losses from property sales in 2020.

如果那是你所說的，不，我們預計 2020 年房地產銷售的收益或損失不會有任何實質性的變化。

In terms of the range that we have for productivity between 0 and 25% -- $0.25.

就我們在 0 到 25% 之間的生產力範圍而言——0.25 美元。

That's -- it might be a little wider than normal.

那是——它可能比正常情況下寬一點。

And I think it does reflect as we're coming off a year where our margins were declining as we were having noticeable drops in inventory, as well as we're going through the transformation and the restructuring charges, we've called out and isolated the restructuring charges.

而且我認為這確實反映了我們即將結束一年的利潤率下降，因為我們的庫存明顯下降，而且我們正在經歷轉型和重組費用，我們已經呼籲並孤立重組費用。

But that's also a driver of our productivity, and we're isolating that.

但這也是我們生產力的驅動力，我們正在隔離它。

And just the interplay of that adds a little more complexity for that.

只是它們的相互作用為此增加了一點複雜性。

And we see the 0 to $0.25 is like our best estimate right now.

我們看到 0 到 0.25 美元是我們目前的最佳估計。

And of course, we're going to be striving to be on the higher end of that, but it's where we're building our plans right now.

當然，我們將努力做到更高端，但這是我們現在正在製定計劃的地方。

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

Just a follow-up on Andy's question a little bit on productivity, maybe a slightly different way.

只是對 Andy 關於生產力的問題的跟進，也許方式略有不同。

I guess, Nick, how does 0 end up in the range?

我想，尼克，0 怎麼會出現在這個範圍內？

You mentioned kind of the under-absorption and destocking issues, which I think caught you by surprise in the first quarter of last year, in particular on the volume drop.

你提到了吸收不足和去庫存問題，我認為這些問題在去年第一季度讓你感到意外，特別是在銷量下降方面。

What would be the driver of the lower end of that range?

該範圍低端的驅動因素是什麼？

Is it if demand is better?

是需求更好嗎？

And like you said, the incentive comp is a hit to productivity?

就像你說的，激勵補償會影響生產力嗎？

Just trying to understand what the downside could be or what would even drive the pressures to that.

只是想了解不利的一面是什麼，或者甚至會帶來壓力。

Josh, a couple things.

喬希，有幾件事。

First of all, as would typically be the expectation, if our growth is on the lower end of our range, I think that puts a little pressure to us on the lower end of the productivity range that we've laid out here.

首先，正如通常的預期那樣，如果我們的增長處於我們範圍的低端，我認為這會給我們在這裡列出的生產率範圍的低端帶來一點壓力。

And included in that productivity range, there's positive things that we're doing, such as where we're seeing where -- the utilization of our factories in comparison to 2019.

包括在生產力範圍內，我們正在做一些積極的事情，比如我們在哪裡看到——與 2019 年相比我們工廠的利用率。

But it's also -- we're also phasing into, as we do every year, wage inflation.

但它也是 - 我們也像每年一樣逐步進入工資通脹。

So offsetting wage inflation is part of that.

因此，抵消工資通脹是其中的一部分。

We also have other things that are impacted in there.

我們還有其他受影響的東西。

For example, what we've called out under other and -- other pension expense that hits the non-op line as being flat year-on-year, included in our productivity there is a -- between a $0.06 and $0.07 headwind for increased pension expenses that's part of that productivity number.

例如，我們在其他和 - 其他非運營線下的養老金支出同比持平，包括在我們的生產力中 - 增加的阻力在 0.06 美元到 0.07 美元之間養老金支出是該生產力數字的一部分。

So there's negative headwind -- there's headwinds we're facing in there as we face a 0 to 25%.

所以有負面的逆風——我們面臨著 0 到 25% 的逆風。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just on the demand outlook, I think, clearly, there was an expectation maybe a few months ago that we were on this kind of linear recovery into maybe a midyear, bigger inflection in demand across the industrial universe.

然後就需求前景而言，我認為，很明顯，幾個月前我們可能會出現這種線性複蘇，可能會進入年中，整個工業領域的需求將出現更大的變化。

It seems like January has been a little slower for everyone.

似乎一月份對每個人來說都有點慢。

If you guys had to snap the line today versus some of the potential maybe green shoots you could have been seeing 30 or 60 days ago, does anything seem pushed out or off track?

如果你們今天不得不打破界限，而不是 30 天或 60 天前可能看到的一些潛在的萌芽，是否有任何事情似乎被推遲或偏離了軌道？

Or is this just kind of a timing issue and we shouldn't read anything into January?

或者這只是一種時間問題，我們不應該在 1 月份閱讀任何內容？

Josh, I think you laid it out the way we looked at that low growth macroeconomic, especially in Industrial Production Index kind of view of that.

喬希，我認為你是按照我們看待低增長宏觀經濟的方式來闡述的，尤其是在工業生產指數方面。

It was getting better as we went through the year.

隨著我們度過這一年，情況越來越好。

That's the way we built our outlook for the year, our plan.

這就是我們建立今年展望和計劃的方式。

I would say the biggest change since that has been what's going on in China.

我想說自那以來最大的變化是中國正在發生的事情。

And it's -- that will be the -- have the biggest impact on how the first quarter plays out and then how we move further into the year.

它——這將是——對第一季度的表現以及我們如何進一步進入這一年產生最大的影響。

So I think that's the most important thing to be watching now.

所以我認為這是現在最重要的事情。

Our last question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Just a quick question following up on inventories.

只是一個關於庫存的快速問題。

I think, Nick or Mike, you'd said that you had a $370 million drawdown in 2019 overall.

我想，尼克或邁克，你說過你在 2019 年總體上減少了 3.7 億美元。

Maybe just help us understand what the margin impact of that drawdown was for the full year '19?

也許只是幫助我們了解縮編對 19 年全年的利潤率影響是什麼？

And also, as you sit here today, do you view your channel inventories at your customers and partners as being fairly normal?

而且，當您今天坐在這裡時，您是否認為您的客戶和合作夥伴的渠道庫存相當正常？

Or is there a bit more to go of destock in Q1?

或者在第一季度還有更多的去庫存？

And then switching back to 3M itself on inventory, you have that old medium-term goal of a $500 million reduction.

然後切換回 3M 本身的庫存，你有減少 5 億美元的舊中期目標。

Where do we stand on that?

我們的立場是什麼？

Julian, several questions all at once.

朱利安，同時提出幾個問題。

So first of all, on the $370 million of inventory reduction, our estimate that, that negatively impacted our operating margins or our gross margins in 2019 by 50 to 100 basis points.

因此，首先，關於 3.7 億美元的庫存減少，我們估計這對我們 2019 年的營業利潤率或毛利率產生了 50 到 100 個基點的負面影響。

That's true both for the fourth quarter and also true for the full year, both 50 to 100 basis points.

第四季度和全年都是如此，都是 50 到 100 個基點。

And we see that flipping to be part -- that's part of our guidance of a margin improvement in 2020, is having that headwind behind us.

我們看到翻轉是一部分——這是我們 2020 年利潤率改善指導的一部分，正在讓我們身後的逆風。

As far as channel inventories, there's always some puts and takes.

就渠道庫存而言，總有一些看跌期權。

I'd say we're seeing nothing abnormal right now with channel inventories.

我想說我們現在沒有看到渠道庫存有任何異常。

We have -- of course, as we've said throughout the year, we've seen some reductions in our inventory -- channel-held inventories.

我們 - 當然，正如我們全年所說的那樣，我們已經看到我們的庫存有所減少 - 渠道持有的庫存。

But right now, I'd characterize it as fairly normal where we stand with inventories.

但現在，我認為我們的庫存情況相當正常。

And then we -- in 2020, we do anticipate that we will bring down inventories a bit more.

然後我們——到 2020 年，我們確實預計我們會進一步降低庫存。

Not -- nothing on the magnitude of the $370 million that we did in 2019.

不——與我們在 2019 年所做的 3.7 億美元的規模相去甚遠。

But we expect we'll be -- we'll continue our progress of taking down our inventories slightly in 2020.

但我們預計我們會——我們將在 2020 年繼續取得略微減少庫存的進展。

As far as the guidance we had given prior of $500 million, we see the progress that we made in 2019 as most of that reduction getting us back to where we had -- were when we first said that, and some of that's starting to make progress on that $500 million.

就我們之前給出的 5 億美元的指導而言，我們看到了我們在 2019 年取得的進展，因為大部分減少讓我們回到了原來的狀態——我們第一次這麼說的時候，其中一些已經開始實現了這 5 億美元的進展。

We still see opportunities in the coming years for us to operate our supply chain even more efficiently and gather even more of that $500 million inventory reduction through our cash flow in the coming years.

我們仍然看到未來幾年有機會更有效地運營我們的供應鏈，並在未來幾年通過我們的現金流收集更多的 5 億美元庫存減少。

We've made some progress in '19, we'll make more in '20, and we'll make more in '21.

我們在 19 年取得了一些進展，我們將在 20 年取得更多進展，我們將在 21 年取得更多進展。

That concludes the question-and-answer portion of our conference call.

我們電話會議的問答部分到此結束。

I will now turn the call back over to Mike Roman for some closing comments.

我現在將把電話轉回 Mike Roman 以徵求一些結束意見。

To wrap up, in the fourth quarter, we leveraged the strengths of the 3M business model to navigate market conditions, while delivering strong cash flow and solid margins.

總而言之，在第四季度，我們利用 3M 商業模式的優勢來駕馭市場環境，同時提供強勁的現金流和可觀的利潤率。

We also continue to make significant progress on our transformation journey with the rollout of our new operating model.

隨著我們新運營模式的推出，我們還在轉型之旅中繼續取得重大進展。

We enter 2020 in a strong strategic and financial position, poised to return to growth and deliver value for our customers and shareholders.

我們以強大的戰略和財務狀況進入 2020 年，準備恢復增長並為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。

Thank you for joining us.

感謝您加入我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

我們感謝您的參與並請您斷開您的線路。