(MGA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Q4 and year-end 2022 results and 2023 outlook conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Friday, February 10, 2023. I would now like to turn the conference over to Louis Tonelli, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 2022 年第四季度和年終業績以及 2023 年展望電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2023 年 2 月 10 日星期五進行錄製。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Louis Tonelli。請繼續。

Thanks, Chris. Hello, everyone, and welcome to our conference call covering our '22 results and our 2023 outlook. Joining me today are Swamy Kotagiri, Vince Galifi and Pat McCann. Yesterday, our Board of Directors met and approved our financial results for 2022 as well as our financial outlook. We issued a press release this morning outlining both of these. You'll find the press release, today's conference call webcast, the slide presentation to go along with the call and our updated quarterly financial review all in the Investor Relations section of our website at magna.com.

謝謝，克里斯。大家好，歡迎參加我們的電話會議，內容涉及我們的 22 年成果和 2023 年展望。今天加入我的是 Swamy Kotagiri、Vince Galifi 和 Pat McCann。昨天，我們的董事會開會並批准了我們 2022 年的財務業績以及我們的財務展望。我們今天早上發布了一份新聞稿，概述了這兩者。您可以在我們網站 magna.com 的投資者關係部分找到新聞稿、今天的電話會議網絡廣播、電話會議幻燈片演示以及我們更新的季度財務回顧。

Before we get started, just as a reminder, the discussion today may contain forward-looking information or forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Such statements involve certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties, which may cause the company's actual or future results and performance to be materially different from those expressed or implied in these statements. Please refer to today's press release for a complete description of our safe harbor disclaimer. Please also refer to the reminder slide today included in our presentation that relates to our commentary.

在我們開始之前，提醒一下，今天的討論可能包含適用證券立法含義內的前瞻性信息或前瞻性陳述。此類陳述涉及某些風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致公司實際或未來的結果和業績與這些陳述中明示或暗示的結果和業績存在重大差異。請參閱今天的新聞稿，了解我們安全港免責聲明的完整說明。另請參閱今天包含在我們的演示文稿中與我們的評論相關的提醒幻燈片。

This morning, we'll cover our 2022 highlights as well as our Q4 results. We'll then provide our 2023 outlook and lastly, run through our financial strategy. And with that, I'll pass it over to Swamy.

今天早上，我們將介紹 2022 年的亮點以及第四季度的業績。然後我們將提供我們的 2023 年展望，最後，貫穿我們的財務戰略。然後，我將把它傳遞給 Swamy。

Thank you, Louis. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll recap 2022, comment on our results and address our outlook. 2022 was another difficult year for the automotive industry and for Magna. The year started with continued supply chain disruptions, most notably the lack of semiconductor chips, which was expected to improve considerably during '22, but instead remain an issue throughout the year. Although vehicle built recovered from the 2021 levels, OEM production schedules remained volatile throughout 2022, which drove significant inefficiencies in our operations, including tapped labor, overtime and staffing availability issues to name a few. It also had an adverse impact on our ability to achieve our continuous improvement plans and optimize our cost structure across the company.

謝謝你，路易斯。大家，早安。今天，我將回顧 2022 年，評論我們的結果並闡述我們的展望。 2022 年對汽車行業和麥格納來說又是艱難的一年。這一年開始時供應鏈持續中斷，最顯著的是缺乏半導體芯片，預計這在 22 年期間會大幅改善，但在全年仍然是一個問題。儘管車輛製造從 2021 年的水平恢復，但 OEM 生產計劃在整個 2022 年仍然不穩定，這導致我們的運營效率嚴重低下，包括挖掘勞動力、加班和人員可用性問題等等。它還對我們實現持續改進計劃和優化整個公司的成本結構的能力產生了不利影響。

We also started 2022 expecting net input cost inflation of about $275 million year-over-year. The conflict in the Ukraine created additional input cost pressure, particularly in energy, and China's zero COVID policy resulted in lockdowns and further supply chain pressures. These factors drove an additional $290 million of net cost headwinds, primarily energy-related. Despite significant cost volatility through 2022, we were able to slightly improve from our revised $565 million in net input cost from our April Q1 call. We ended at $530 million for the year.

我們還預計從 2022 年開始，淨投入成本通脹將同比增長約 2.75 億美元。烏克蘭的衝突造成了額外的投入成本壓力，尤其是在能源方面，而中國的零 COVID 政策導致封鎖和進一步的供應鏈壓力。這些因素導致額外的 2.9 億美元淨成本逆風，主要與能源相關。儘管到 2022 年成本波動很大，但我們能夠從 4 月份第一季度電話會議中修訂後的 5.65 億美元淨投入成本中略有改善。我們當年的收入為 5.3 億美元。

In the context of this industry environment, a tremendous amount of effort was expanded by our team to manage through the challenges, launch business, negotiate customer recoveries and resolve commercial items. We were also successful in booking a record amount of business for Magna. So while we are not happy with our 2022 results as a whole, and especially with underperformance in some of our facilities, I am appreciative of the tremendous efforts made across the company.

在這種行業環境的背景下，我們的團隊付出了巨大的努力來應對挑戰、開展業務、談判客戶恢復和解決商業項目。我們還成功地為 Magna 預訂了創紀錄的業務量。因此，雖然我們對 2022 年的整體業績不滿意，尤其是我們的一些設施表現不佳，但我對整個公司所做的巨大努力表示讚賞。

Unfortunately, we ended a difficult year with disappointing Q4 results relative to our expectations entering the quarter. Although our sales of $9.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022 were up 5% year-over-year compared to our outlook, Q4 sales were lower and mix was negative with our operating segments down almost $400 million, excluding complete vehicles and the impact of foreign exchange.

不幸的是，相對於進入本季度的預期，我們以令人失望的第四季度業績結束了艱難的一年。儘管我們在 2022 年第四季度的銷售額為 96 億美元，與我們的預期相比同比增長 5%，但第四季度的銷售額較低且組合為負，我們的運營部門減少了近 4 億美元，不包括整車和外匯。

Turning back to year-over-year. EBIT margin for Q4 declined to 3.7%. This was due to both internal and external factors. Internal factors included higher warranty expense, which cost [us about] 35 basis points, provisions against certain balance sheet amounts about 30 basis points and operating underperformance at a facility in Europe by approximately 25 basis points. External factors included continued inefficiencies caused by ongoing last-minute reductions in OEM production schedules and a customer footprint decision that resulted in our having to take asset impairment charges, which was about 5 basis points. These were partially offset by higher commercial resolutions, which positively impacted us by about 25 basis points.

回到年復一年。第四季度的息稅前利潤率下降至 3.7%。這是由於內部和外部因素造成的。內部因素包括更高的保修費用，這使 [我們] 花費了大約 35 個基點，某些資產負債表金額的準備金約為 30 個基點，以及歐洲一家設施的運營表現不佳約 25 個基點。外部因素包括由於 OEM 生產計劃在最後一刻不斷減少而導致的持續低效率，以及導致我們不得不承擔資產減值費用的客戶足跡決定，這大約是 5 個基點。這些被更高的商業決議部分抵消，這對我們產生了大約 25 個基點的積極影響。

Our adjusted EPS was $0.91 for the quarter, ending the year at $4.10, and mainly as a result of lower EBIT, free cash flow in Q4 was $340 million, which was below our 2022 outlook.

我們調整後的本季度每股收益為 0.91 美元，年底為 4.10 美元，主要是由於息稅前利潤較低，第四季度的自由現金流為 3.4 億美元，低於我們 2022 年的預期。

I recognize that we have operations that have underperformed our expectations this past year. However, operational excellence remains core to Magna, a key differentiator and a fundamental element of our strategy going forward. Although we incurred additional cost to do so, we once again managed to minimize disruption to OEM production despite continued supply chain challenges and volatile schedules. Our customers continue to recognize our efforts in operational excellence and innovation. Last year, we received 107 customer awards, and our progress continues towards net carbon neutrality in our operations.

我認識到我們的業務在過去一年中的表現低於我們的預期。然而，卓越運營仍然是麥格納的核心，這是一個關鍵的差異化因素，也是我們未來戰略的基本要素。儘管我們為此付出了額外的成本，但儘管供應鏈面臨持續挑戰且時間表不穩定，我們還是再次設法將對 OEM 生產的干擾降到最低。我們的客戶繼續認可我們在卓越運營和創新方面所做的努力。去年，我們獲得了 107 個客戶獎項，我們在運營中繼續朝著淨碳中和邁進。

Part of how we address operational excellence is through a focus on people. We developed the operational management accelerator program to enhance the technical breadth of our future general managers and leaders. This will ensure we can fill the pipeline of future leadership across Magna. And I'm proud that Magna received 14 leading employer recognitions this past year, including from Forbes for the sixth consecutive year as world's best employer.

我們解決卓越運營的部分方式是通過關注人。我們開發了運營管理加速器計劃，以提高我們未來總經理和領導者的技術廣度。這將確保我們能夠填補麥格納未來領導層的空缺。我感到自豪的是，麥格納在過去的一年裡獲得了 14 項主要雇主的認可，其中包括連續第六年被福布斯評為全球最佳雇主。

Turning to sales growth. We outgrew our markets in 2022 by 7%. And once again, we achieved this outgrowth in each of our major regions, North America, Europe and Asia. We were awarded a record amount of business, about $11 billion annually for 2022. This represents more than 30% above the average of our last 5 years of awards. We expect this to drive strong sales growth over market and improved returns as these programs launch. And we signed an agreement to acquire Veoneer Active Safety. This will further accelerate our growth and position us as a leader in the fast-growing ADAS market. We have begun planning to ensure a smooth integration of the business once the transaction closes this year.

轉向銷售增長。到 2022 年，我們的市場增長速度超過了 7%。再一次，我們在北美、歐洲和亞洲的每個主要地區都實現了這種增長。我們獲得了創紀錄的業務量，到 2022 年每年約 110 億美元。這比我們過去 5 年的平均水平高出 30% 以上。隨著這些計劃的啟動，我們預計這將推動市場銷售強勁增長並提高回報。我們簽署了收購 Veoneer Active Safety 的協議。這將進一步加速我們的發展，並使我們成為快速增長的 ADAS 市場的領導者。我們已開始計劃確保在今年交易完成後順利整合業務。

Finally, we remain committed to innovation. We were awarded substantial new business in a number of core innovation areas. This includes battery enclosures, E-Drives, Driver Monitoring Systems and Smart Access Power Doors. We won another automotive news -- PACE award, our sixth such award in the past 8 years.

最後，我們仍然致力於創新。我們在多個核心創新領域獲得了大量新業務。這包括電池外殼、電子驅動器、駕駛員監控系統和智能門禁電動門。我們獲得了另一個汽車新聞 - PACE 獎，這是我們在過去 8 年中第六次獲得此類獎項。

Our commitment to innovation continues. As we communicated last year, we increased our R&D investments in mobility megatrend areas in 2022 to support awarded programs and opportunities.

我們繼續致力於創新。正如我們去年所傳達的那樣，我們在 2022 年增加了對移動大趨勢領域的研發投資，以支持獲獎項目和機會。

With that, Pat, I'll pass it off to you.

有了這個，帕特，我會把它傳遞給你。

Thanks, Swamy, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a detailed review of our financial results. As Swamy indicated, our 2022 results were impacted by continued significant disruptions in OEM production schedules, mainly due to supply chip shortages and input cost inflation in our primary markets to levels we have not experienced for decades. Overall, global light vehicle production increased 6% in 2022 or 5% weighted for our geographic sales. Our consolidated sales rose 4% year-over-year. On an organic basis, our sales increased 12%, driving a 7% weighted growth over market for the year and (inaudible) customer recoveries.

謝謝，Swamy，大家早上好。我將從詳細回顧我們的財務業績開始。正如 Swamy 所指出的那樣，我們 2022 年的業績受到 OEM 生產計劃持續嚴重中斷的影響，這主要是由於供應芯片短缺和我們主要市場的投入成本膨脹到我們幾十年來從未經歷過的水平。總體而言，2022 年全球輕型汽車產量增長 6%，按我們的地域銷售額加權增長 5%。我們的綜合銷售額同比增長 4%。在有機的基礎上，我們的銷售額增長了 12%，推動了全年 7% 的市場加權增長和（聽不清）客戶復甦。

However, our adjusted EBIT margin and EPS declined during 2022. The [single] most significant factor being input cost headwinds, net of customer recoveries, which reduced our consolidated EBIT margins by about 150 basis points. The start-stop production impacts, while difficult to quantify, were also a meaningful headwind, negating some of the positive impact of higher sales.

然而，我們調整後的息稅前利潤率和每股收益在 2022 年有所下降。[單一] 最重要的因素是投入成本逆風，扣除客戶回收，這使我們的綜合息稅前利潤率降低了約 150 個基點。起停生產的影響雖然難以量化，但也是一個有意義的逆風，抵消了銷售額增加的一些積極影響。

In addition, operating inefficiencies at a BES facility in Europe cost us about 35 basis points. Entire engineering to support our activities in electrification and ADAS negatively impacted margin by 25 basis points. Partially offsetting these favorable was favorable commercial resolutions that benefited margin by about 45 basis points.

此外，歐洲 BES 設施的運營效率低下讓我們損失了大約 35 個基點。支持我們在電氣化和 ADAS 方面活動的整個工程對利潤率產生了 25 個基點的負面影響。部分抵消了這些有利因素的是有利的商業決議，使利潤率提高了約 45 個基點。

For the fourth quarter, global light vehicle production increased 5% as North America increased 7%, China increased 3%, while Europe declined 1%. On a Magna-weighted basis, production increased 5% in the fourth quarter. Our consolidated sales were $9.6 billion compared to $9.1 billion in Q4 2021. We had strong relative sales performance in the quarter with organic sales outperforming weighted production by 8%, again, in part due to customer recoveries However, continued OEM production schedule volatility negatively impacted our pull-through on the higher sales.

第四季度，全球輕型汽車產量增長 5%，北美增長 7%，中國增長 3%，而歐洲下降 1%。在麥格納加權基礎上，第四季度產量增長了 5%。我們的綜合銷售額為 96 億美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 91 億美元。我們在本季度的相對銷售表現強勁，有機銷售額優於加權生產 8%，同樣，部分原因是客戶恢復。然而，持續的 OEM 生產計劃波動產生了負面影響我們對更高銷售額的拉動。

We had disappointing EBIT margin performance in the quarter, which resulted in Q4 EPS that was also lower than we expected and lower than 2021. Let me take you through the specifics on our margin. Adjusted EBIT was $356 million, and adjusted EBIT margin decreased 190 basis points to 3.7%, which compares to 5.6% in Q4 2021. The lower EBIT percentage in the quarter reflects higher engineering spend for electrification autonomy, increased net warranty expense, higher launch costs, operational inefficiencies at a facility in Europe and provisions recorded against accounts receivable and other balances. These are partially offset by the impact of foreign currency translation, commercial resolutions and higher contribution on sales, although significantly hampered by OEM production volatility.

我們在本季度的息稅前利潤率表現令人失望，導致第四季度每股收益也低於我們的預期，低於 2021 年。讓我向您詳細介紹一下我們的利潤率。調整後息稅前利潤為 3.56 億美元，調整後息稅前利潤率下降 190 個基點至 3.7%，而 2021 年第四季度為 5.6%。本季度較低的息稅前利潤百分比反映了電氣化自主工程支出增加、淨保修費用增加、啟動成本增加，歐洲一家設施的運營效率低下以及針對應收賬款和其他餘額記錄的準備金。儘管受到 OEM 生產波動的嚴重阻礙，但外幣換算、商業決議和更高的銷售額貢獻的影響部分抵消了這些影響。

As we indicated in our early warning press release last month, some of these items were not anticipated when we provided our outlook in early November 2022. In particular, the net warranty costs, the provision against AR and other balances and the timing of net engineering expense.

正如我們在上個月的預警新聞稿中指出的那樣，我們在 2022 年 11 月上旬提供展望時並未預料到其中一些項目。特別是淨保修成本、對 AR 和其他餘額的準備金以及淨工程的時間安排費用。

Turning to a review of our cash flows and investment activities. In the fourth quarter of 2022, we generated $501 million in cash from operations before changes in working capital and a further $755 million from working capital. Investment activities in the quarter included $750 million for fixed assets and $186 million for increase in investments, other assets and intangibles. Overall, we generated $340 million of free cash flow in Q4. We also paid $126 million in dividends in the quarter.

轉向審查我們的現金流量和投資活動。 2022 年第四季度，我們在營運資金變動前從運營中產生了 5.01 億美元的現金，另外還從營運資金中產生了 7.55 億美元。本季度的投資活動包括 7.5 億美元的固定資產和 1.86 億美元的增加投資、其他資產和無形資產。總體而言，我們在第四季度產生了 3.4 億美元的自由現金流。我們還在本季度支付了 1.26 億美元的股息。

Growing our dividend remains an element of our stated financial strategy. And yesterday, our Board approved an increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.46 per share, reflecting the Board and management's collective confidence in the outlook for our business. We have increased our dividend per share at an average growth rate of 11% going back to 2010.

增加股息仍然是我們既定財務戰略的一個組成部分。昨天，我們的董事會批准將季度股息上調至每股 0.46 美元，這反映了董事會和管理層對我們業務前景的集體信心。自 2010 年以來，我們以平均 11% 的增長率增加了每股股息。

And now I will pass it back to Swamy for comments before I get into the specifics of our outlook. Please note that our outlook excludes the pending acquisition of Veoneer Active Safety.

現在，在我詳細介紹我們的前景之前，我會將它傳回 Swamy 以徵求意見。請注意，我們的展望不包括對 Veoneer Active Safety 的未決收購。

Thanks, Pat. Over the past couple of years, we've been highlighting our go-forward strategy to propel our business into the future. While it is still early days and despite the difficult industry environment, we are making progress in our strategy. You're going to see that this progress is reflected in our 3-year outlook, mainly through investments in megatrend areas. We start to see some results of our strategy over the next 3 years, but most of the benefits are expected to be realized beyond our outlook period.

謝謝，帕特。在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在強調我們的前瞻性戰略，以推動我們的業務走向未來。雖然現在還處於早期階段，儘管行業環境艱難，但我們的戰略正在取得進展。您將看到這一進展反映在我們的 3 年展望中，主要是通過對大趨勢領域的投資。我們開始在未來 3 年看到我們戰略的一些成果，但大部分收益預計將在我們的展望期之後實現。

As always, our outlook reflects both tailwinds and headwinds. Now in terms of tailwinds, we're launching content on a number of new programs, which is contributing to sales growth. Compared to 2022, we anticipate higher global auto production growth during our outlook period, although the growth rate is well below what we expected a year ago. As I said earlier, we continue to increase our business in megatrend areas, particularly electrification and autonomy. This additional business is leading to increased investment.

一如既往，我們的前景反映了順風和逆風。現在，就順風而言，我們正在推出一些新節目的內容，這有助於銷售增長。與 2022 年相比，我們預計在展望期內全球汽車產量將實現更高增長，儘管增長率遠低於我們一年前的預期。正如我之前所說，我們將繼續增加我們在大趨勢領域的業務，尤其是電氣化和自治領域。這種額外的業務導致投資增加。

In terms of headwinds in our outlook, while we experienced some improvement in 2022, we expect continued OEM production schedule volatility, primarily due to semiconductor supply constraints. Our business is facing further inflationary input cost impacts compared to 2022, especially in labor and energy as well as lower scrap revenue. We expect incremental input cost headwinds, net of recoveries of approximately $150 million for 2023. However, I'll tell you that we continue to pursue additional recoveries associated with ongoing input cost inflation. Our prices need to more closely reflect the cost environment we're currently operating in.

就我們前景的不利因素而言，雖然我們在 2022 年經歷了一些改善，但我們預計 OEM 生產計劃將持續波動，這主要是由於半導體供應限制。與 2022 年相比，我們的業務面臨進一步的通貨膨脹投入成本影響，尤其是在勞動力和能源以及較低的廢料收入方面。我們預計增量投入成本逆風，扣除 2023 年約 1.5 億美元的回收。但是，我會告訴你，我們將繼續尋求與持續投入成本通脹相關的額外回收。我們的價格需要更密切地反映我們目前運營的成本環境。

Lastly, with the existing macro environment, there is a risk that auto demand may be negatively impacted.

最後，在現有的宏觀環境下，汽車需求存在受到負面影響的風險。

So how does all this translate in our key financial metrics? We expect continued strong organic sales growth in the range of 6% to 8% on average per year over our outlook period. We anticipate margin expansion of 230 basis points or more from 2022 to 2025. Our engineering investments in megatrend areas should continue to average about $900 million annually before customer recoveries. And capital spending is expected to increase mainly to support our significant business growth, particularly in megatrend areas. Lastly, we expect our free cash flow generation, which has been impacted by the industry environment over the past couple of years to significantly improve over our outlook period, as margins expand and get through our heavy period of investment for growth. As a result of the increased investment spending and the pending acquisition of Veoneer Active Safety, we plan to increase our debt during 2023.

那麼所有這些如何轉化為我們的關鍵財務指標？我們預計在我們的展望期內，有機銷售額將持續強勁增長，平均每年增長 6% 至 8%。我們預計從 2022 年到 2025 年利潤率將增長 230 個基點或更多。在客戶恢復之前，我們在大趨勢領域的工程投資平均每年應繼續保持在 9 億美元左右。預計資本支出將增加，主要是為了支持我們顯著的業務增長，尤其是在大趨勢領域。最後，我們預計在過去幾年中受到行業環境影響的自由現金流的產生將在我們的展望期內顯著改善，因為利潤率會擴大並度過我們為增長而進行的大量投資時期。由於投資支出增加和即將收購 Veoneer Active Safety，我們計劃在 2023 年增加債務。

As we continue to execute against our long-term strategy, our #1 priority in 2023 is operational excellence to improve margins and returns as well as the seamless integration of the Veoneer Active Safety business once the transaction closes.

隨著我們繼續執行我們的長期戰略，我們在 2023 年的第一要務是卓越運營以提高利潤率和回報，以及在交易完成後無縫整合維寧爾主動安全業務。

Now I'll pass the call back to Pat to take you through the details.

現在，我會將電話轉回給帕特，讓您了解詳細信息。

Thanks, Swamy. I'll start with the key assumptions in our outlook. Our outlook reflects relatively modest increases in vehicle production in each of our key regions relative to 2022. For '23, our global light vehicle assumption is up about 2%. In North America and Europe, our two largest markets, volumes in 2023 remain well below levels experienced in 2019. However, we expect the increased production in both markets through 2025. In China, we expect a modest decline in '23 and growth from 2023 to 2025. We assume exchange rates and our outlook will approximate decent rates. This reflects a slightly weaker Canadian dollar and Chinese RMB and slightly stronger euro in each case relative to 2022. Net-net, the impact of currency to our outlook is expected to be negligible.

謝謝，斯瓦米。我將從我們展望中的關鍵假設開始。我們的前景反映了我們每個關鍵地區的汽車產量相對於 2022 年的相對溫和增長。對於 23 年，我們的全球輕型汽車假設增長了約 2%。在我們最大的兩個市場北美和歐洲，2023 年的產量仍遠低於 2019 年的水平。但是，我們預計到 2025 年這兩個市場的產量都會增加。在中國，我們預計 23 年將適度下降，從 2023 年開始增長到 2025 年。我們假設匯率和我們的前景將接近體面的匯率。這反映出相對於 2022 年加元和人民幣略微走弱，歐元略微走強。淨值，貨幣對我們前景的影響預計可以忽略不計。

I will start with our consolidated outlook. We expect consolidated sales to grow by 6% to 8% on average per year out to 2025 reaching almost $45 billion and potentially as high as $47 billion. The growth is largely driven by the higher vehicle production and content growth, including as a result of the launch of new technologies across our portfolio. These are partially offset by the end of production on certain programs and the disposition of a manual transmission facility. On an organic basis, we expect consolidated sales growth to also be between 6% and 8% on average per year out to 2025. Excluding complete vehicles, we expect our organic sales to grow between 8% and 10% on average.

我將從我們的綜合展望開始。我們預計到 2025 年，綜合銷售額將以平均每年 6% 至 8% 的速度增長，達到近 450 億美元，並可能高達 470 億美元。增長主要是由更高的汽車產量和內容增長推動的，包括在我們的產品組合中推出新技術的結果。這些部分被某些節目的製作結束和手動傳輸設施的處置所抵消。在有機基礎上，我們預計到 2025 年，綜合銷售額平均每年增長 6% 至 8%。不包括整車，我們預計我們的有機銷售額平均增長 8% 至 10%。

For 2023, we expect organic sales growth of between 5% and 9% compared to global production of 2% or weighted growth of about 3.5%. You'll see that this growth requires additional capital. In addition, we are expecting significant sales growth from unconsolidated joint ventures over the next few years, including our LG JV for electrification components and systems, our integrated E-Drive JV in China and a new seating JV in North America.

到 2023 年，我們預計有機銷售額增長 5% 至 9%，而全球產量增長 2% 或加權增長約 3.5%。您會發現這種增長需要額外的資金。此外，我們預計未來幾年未合併的合資企業的銷售額將顯著增長，包括我們的 LG 電氣化組件和系統合資企業、我們在中國的集成 E-Drive 合資企業以及在北美的新座椅合資企業。

We expect our consolidated margin to be in the 4.1% to 5.1% range in 2023. As Swamy noted, we expect continued input cost pressures in 2023 but we are focused on mitigating higher manufacturing costs, via operational improvements and additional inflation recoveries. Relative to 2022, our '23 margin is expected to benefit from contribution on higher sales, operational improvement initiatives, lower warranty costs and the impact of certain AR and other provisions incurred in the fourth quarter of '22. Offsetting these are lower expected commercial resolutions compared to 2022, higher net input costs of about $150 million, including $50 million related to lower scrap sales, lower license and royalty income and higher launch and new facility costs.

我們預計 2023 年的綜合利潤率將在 4.1% 至 5.1% 之間。正如 Swamy 指出的那樣，我們預計 2023 年投入成本壓力將持續存在，但我們專注於通過改善運營和額外的通脹復甦來緩解更高的製造成本。相對於 2022 年，我們的 23 年利潤率預計將受益於銷售額增加、運營改進計劃、保修成本降低以及 22 年第四季度發生的某些 AR 和其他準備金的影響。抵消這些的是與 2022 年相比較低的預期商業決議，較高的淨投入成本約 1.5 億美元，其中包括與廢料銷售減少、許可和特許權使用費收入減少以及啟動和新設施成本增加相關的 5000 萬美元。

While we do not provide a quarterly outlook, we do expect '23 earnings to be lowest in the first quarter of '23, in fact, below the Q4 level and improve sequentially as we move throughout the year. We expect a step-up in margins from '23 to 2025. This is largely driven by a contribution on higher anticipated sales, continued execution of operational improvement initiatives, higher equity income and lower launch and new facility costs. Many of the same factors that are impacting consolidated sales and margins out to 2025 are also impacting our segments. In the interest of time, we will not run through the segment detail. However, we are happy to discuss any questions.

雖然我們不提供季度展望，但我們確實預計 23 年第一季度的收益將是 23 年第一季度的最低水平，實際上低於第四季度的水平，並且隨著我們全年的移動而連續改善。我們預計從 23 年到 2025 年的利潤率將有所提高。這主要是由於預期銷售額增加、運營改進計劃的持續執行、股權收益增加以及啟動和新設施成本降低的貢獻。許多影響到 2025 年合併銷售額和利潤率的相同因素也影響著我們的細分市場。為了節省時間，我們不會詳細介紹細分市場。但是，我們很樂意討論任何問題。

Next, I would like to cover some of the highlights of our financial strategy. We have been consistent in communicating our capital allocation principles over the years, and I'd like to reiterate these. We want to maintain a strong balance sheet, ample liquidity with high investment-grade ratings, invest for growth through organic and inorganic opportunities along with innovation spending and finally, return capital to shareholders.

接下來，我想介紹一下我們財務戰略的一些亮點。多年來，我們一直在傳達我們的資本分配原則，我想重申這些原則。我們希望保持穩健的資產負債表、充足的流動性和高投資評級，通過有機和無機機會以及創新支出投資增長，最後將資本返還給股東。

As we begin 2023, our leverage ratio is just above the high end of our target range, substantially due to the recent impacts of the auto environment -- EBITDA. As Swamy noted earlier, given our investment needs and capital spending, working capital and to fund the acquisition of Veoneer Active Safety, we plan to increase debt in 2023. We expect to maintain high investment-grade ratings with credit rating agencies. And based on our current plans, we anticipate bringing our leverage ratio back into our target range by the end of 2024.

2023 年伊始，我們的槓桿率剛好高於目標範圍的高端，這主要是由於近期汽車環境的影響——EBITDA。正如 Swamy 之前指出的那樣，鑑於我們的投資需求和資本支出、營運資金以及為收購 Veoneer Active Safety 提供資金，我們計劃在 2023 年增加債務。我們預計將維持信用評級機構的高投資級評級。根據我們目前的計劃，我們預計到 2024 年底，我們的槓桿率將回到我們的目標範圍內。

We are entering a period of somewhat cyclical capital investment to support growth, similar to what we experienced in 2016 to 2018. We expect capital spending to be approximately $2.4 billion for 2023 and to modestly decline from these levels out to 2025. Compared to our 2022 level, about $1 billion of our incremental capital spending in the '23 to '25 period relates to our upcoming sales growth in megatrend areas during and beyond our outlook period. This includes almost $500 million in capital in 2023 alone. Based on our current plans, CapEx to sales will reach a peak this year before beginning to decline again.

我們正在進入一個週期性資本投資支持增長的時期，這與我們在 2016 年至 2018 年經歷的情況類似。我們預計 2023 年的資本支出約為 24 億美元，到 2025 年將從這些水平小幅下降。與我們的 2022 年相比水平，我們在 23 到 25 年期間增加的資本支出中約有 10 億美元與我們在展望期間和之後即將到來的大趨勢領域的銷售增長有關。這包括僅在 2023 年就有近 5 億美元的資本。根據我們目前的計劃，資本支出與銷售額的比值將在今年達到頂峰，然後再次開始下降。

The global and industry challenges have hampered our free cash flow over the past few years. And based on our increased capital spending in the near-term, will impact free cash flow. However, based on our current plans, we expect significantly improving free cash flow throughout our outlook period.

過去幾年，全球和行業挑戰阻礙了我們的自由現金流。根據我們近期增加的資本支出，將影響自由現金流。然而，根據我們目前的計劃，我們預計在整個展望期內自由現金流將顯著改善。

In summary, we expect continued organic sales above market, increased investments to support further growth and opportunities in megatrend areas, margin expansion over outlook period, including through ongoing operational improvement activities, and increasing free cash flow as sales and margins expand in our gross spending subside.

總而言之，我們預計有機銷售額將繼續高於市場，增加投資以支持大趨勢領域的進一步增長和機會，展望期內利潤率將擴大，包括通過持續的運營改進活動，以及隨著銷售額和利潤率在我們總支出中的擴大而增加自由現金流塌陷。

As Swamy said, we are highly focused on the integration of Veoneer Active Safety and getting back into our targeted leverage range over the next couple of years.

正如 Swamy 所說，我們高度關注 Veoneer Active Safety 的整合，並在未來幾年內回到我們的目標槓桿範圍。

Thank you for your attention. We will be happy to answer your questions.

感謝您的關注。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

Just a couple of questions on the sort of the near-term and midterm outlook. I mean, if we look at the '22 to '23 numbers, I mean, you can certainly argue that the small decremental margin, right, as earnings could go down, even the sales go up on the low end, but then you could get something to sort of 13% or sort of mid-teens, depending if you want to include the unconsolidated sales in there. It's kind of a wide range. And I know you kind of highlighted some of the factors here. But I mean, if you were to think about sort of the extreme to the downside, what do you think would really drive that? I mean the upside seems, like it's kind of more normal in the process, but the downside seems like it's pretty extreme. What would take you to that low end of the range?

關於近期和中期前景的幾個問題。我的意思是，如果我們看一下 22 到 23 年的數字，我的意思是，你當然可以爭辯說小的遞減利潤率，對，隨著收益可能下降，即使是低端銷售額也會上升，但你可以獲得大約 13% 或大約 15% 左右的收益，具體取決於您是否要在其中包括未合併的銷售額。範圍很廣。我知道你在這裡強調了一些因素。但我的意思是，如果你要考慮某種極端的不利因素，你認為真正會推動它的是什麼？我的意思是，好的方面似乎在這個過程中比較正常，但不利的一面似乎非常極端。什麼會把你帶到範圍的低端？

I think some of the things that I mentioned, right, have been difficult to quantify. And the one significant that shows up in my mind is the production volatility. Just to give a context and put some amount of magnitude around it without naming customers or platforms, if I just look across the major customers that they have, there are some programs where the volumes are in the 50% to 60% of the contracted plan. On top of that, at these low volume numbers, the variability of the production schedule is hovering anywhere between 35% to 50%. And that is a significant inefficiency hit in terms of managing labor, looking at (inaudible) labor or just looking at the overall cost structure. I would say that is one significant impact.

我認為我提到的一些事情，對，很難量化。在我腦海中出現的一個重要因素是生產波動。只是為了提供一個背景並在不命名客戶或平台的情況下對其進行一定程度的量化，如果我只查看他們擁有的主要客戶，就會發現一些項目的數量佔合同計劃的 50% 到 60% .最重要的是，在這些低產量下，生產計劃的可變性徘徊在 35% 到 50% 之間。在管理勞動力、查看（聽不清）勞動力或僅查看整體成本結構方面，這是一個嚴重的低效率問題。我想說這是一個重大影響。

The other one is energy in Europe, how it ends up and how it progresses. And obviously, the third one is a significant headwind in terms of inflation and input costs. And it's a complex equation that we're trying to solve here. And that's kind of the reason why -- and looking at the geopolitical and macroeconomic issues, I think are the reason for the broader range that we're looking at. And I think we'll be able to get a little bit more granularity as the year goes by.

另一個是歐洲的能源，它如何結束以及如何發展。顯然，第三個在通貨膨脹和投入成本方面是一個重大的逆風。這是一個我們試圖在這裡解決的複雜方程式。這就是為什麼 - 看看地緣政治和宏觀經濟問題，我認為這是我們正在研究更廣泛範圍的原因。而且我認為隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠獲得更多的粒度。

And Swamy, the one plant -- or it seems like there's one plant in Europe that's causing you problems. I mean this kind of happens from time to time, there's one underperformer in the large portfolio. Can you kind of highlight or give us some details around what's going on with that? Because it sounds like it's called out as one specific plant and what the turnaround process is there?

還有 Swamy，只有一種植物——或者看起來歐洲只有一種植物給你帶來了麻煩。我的意思是這種情況時有發生，大型投資組合中有一個表現不佳。你能強調一下或給我們一些關於這件事的細節嗎？因為聽起來它被稱為一個特定的工廠，所以周轉過程是什麼？

Yes, John. It's a BES facility, and I think I talked about it in the last 2 quarters. And it's basically the planning and efficiency, and I talked about a little bit in looking at the specifications and how it was underestimated, which led to a lot of constraints on production capacity and [strike]. But the good news is that over the last 2 quarters, it has been stabilized and the expected impact that we have planned in Q4 came as we expected. So I think the facility is stable, and we are continuing to improve in 2023.

是的，約翰。這是一個 BES 設施，我想我在過去的兩個季度裡談到過它。基本上是計劃和效率，我在看規格和如何被低估時談到了一點，這導致了對產能和 [罷工] 的很多限制。但好消息是，在過去的兩個季度中，它已經穩定下來，我們在第四季度計劃的預期影響如我們所料。所以我認為設施是穩定的，我們將在 2023 年繼續改進。

But I think I've mentioned in the past, it takes a little bit of time to balance the capacity back to normal. Some of the outsourcing that we bring back in get the stability that is needed, put the capacity that was needed. I'm confident that we are on the right path in that one. But you're right, that is the one facility that has had a significant impact in the numbers on the underperformance bucket.

但我想我在過去已經提到過，需要一點時間來平衡容量恢復正常。我們帶回的一些外包獲得了所需的穩定性，提供了所需的能力。我相信我們在這方面走的是正確的道路。但你是對的，這是一個對錶現不佳的數據產生重大影響的設施。

Okay. And then just second on the midterm, the '23 to '25 in your guidance, I mean, you once again, kind of 27% incremental. So after what we're seeing from '22 to '23, I think there's a little bit of consternation that those might be a little bit on the optimistic side. I mean is this really a question of the markets normalizing on volume and volatility and cost inflation normalizing? Or is there something else that you can really control that will drive that kind of upside?

好的。然後是中期的第二個，在你的指導中，'23 到'25，我的意思是，你再次增加了 27%。因此，在我們從 22 年到 23 年看到的情況之後，我認為有一點驚愕，即這些可能有點樂觀。我的意思是，這真的是市場在交易量和波動性上正常化以及成本通脹正常化的問題嗎？或者還有其他你可以真正控制的東西會推動這種上升趨勢嗎？

There's a couple -- yes, a few factors, John. I think one definitely is -- we can just hope, right? We are hoping that the market stabilizes, but we can just bank on that. Some of it is accelerated continuous improvement, how we're looking at it. We have had discussions in '22 on recoveries with customers and they continue to happen, and we have started those discussions for '23 already back in the Q4 of '22. So they really know where we stand. And it's not just limited to 2023. There is pre-2023 discussions that continue to be had.

有幾個——是的，有幾個因素，約翰。我認為肯定是——我們只能希望，對吧？我們希望市場穩定下來，但我們只能指望這一點。其中一些是加速持續改進，我們是如何看待它的。我們在 22 年與客戶就恢復進行了討論，並且這些討論仍在繼續，我們已經在 22 年的第四季度開始了 23 年的討論。所以他們真的知道我們的立場。而且它不僅限於 2023 年。2023 年之前的討論仍在繼續。

So it's a mix of all of those. But I think we're also looking at the operational efficiency and excellence that I talked about is going to be a key priority, right, get back to the cash flow generation, looking at not even having the surprises that we've had, looking at true causes and how do we make it better. So it's a combination of those.

所以這是所有這些的混合。但我認為我們也在關注我談到的運營效率和卓越性將成為一個關鍵優先事項，對吧，回到現金流的產生，看看甚至沒有我們已經擁有的驚喜，看看真正的原因以及我們如何讓它變得更好。所以它是這些的組合。

Seems like you're being awful polite given the volatility in the schedules that you're being given. Just lastly, real quick on Veoneer, what will be the financial impact? If you can just remind us on cash out the door accretive when it becomes accretive? And if we think about that in the context of the balance sheet. Does that put us in a position where there's likely to be no buybacks in '23 and '24 as capital is allocated in that direction that balance sheet normalizes?

鑑於給你的日程安排的波動性，你似乎太客氣了。最後，Veoneer 真的很快，財務影響會是什麼？如果你能提醒我們現金何時增值？如果我們在資產負債表的背景下考慮這一點。這是否使我們處於 23 年和 24 年可能沒有回購的位置，因為資本是朝著資產負債表正常化的方向分配的？

John, it's Pat. Let me -- maybe I'll answer those in reverse order, if that's okay? So if you think about the share buybacks, our financial strategy has been pretty clear, which is #1 priority is investment grade ratings, #2 is to grow the business. And then if there's cash left over after those activities, we'd be returning it through share buybacks.

約翰，是帕特。讓我——也許我會以相反的順序回答這些問題，如果可以的話？因此，如果你考慮股票回購，我們的財務戰略已經非常明確，第一優先是投資等級評級，第二是發展業務。然後，如果在這些活動之後還有剩餘現金，我們將通過股票回購將其返還。

Given the capital levels and the acquisition of Veoneer, our intention would be that we're not going to have any share buybacks in 2023, and we will normalize come back within our targeted leverage ratios and that we would obviously revisit that in 2024.

考慮到資本水平和對 Veoneer 的收購，我們的意圖是我們不會在 2023 年進行任何股票回購，我們將在我們的目標槓桿率範圍內正常化，並且我們顯然會在 2024 年重新審視它。

Veoneer itself, on the acquisition, we're still targeting a midyear close on that transaction. On a stand-alone basis, they're expected to be post breakeven in 2023, on a full year basis, where it's going to be marginally decremental in 2023, given the PPA that we have in there. As we move into '24, the first full year of ownership, we expect it to be breakeven at the Magna level excluding PPA.

Veoneer 本身，在收購方面，我們仍然瞄準該交易的年中收盤。在獨立的基礎上，他們預計將在 2023 年全年實現盈虧平衡，考慮到我們在那裡的購電協議，到 2023 年將略有下降。隨著我們進入 24 年，也就是擁有所有權的第一個完整年度，我們預計它在不包括 PPA 的 Magna 水平上實現收支平衡。

I mean the cash out the door for that?

我的意思是現金出門？

The transaction price is approximately $1.5 billion.

交易價格約為15億美元。

Our next question is from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

So a question on your actions. What are you doing specifically, what's the plan to improve these very disappointing results, Swamy? I mean I see you call out cutting discretionary costs and securing more inflation recoveries, which may or may not be in your control, but let's assume -- I think the market's going to assume not fully in your control. You addressed a plant in Europe. But is it time -- from my history covering Magna, there's never really been -- it's been a long time since you've done like a more sweeping restructuring because you always have the Magna way and is continuously happening. But is there -- is this a chance when your margins are falling and your CapEx is rising into this environment where you need to do something a little more significant on the restructuring side. If you could be specific with how we should think of that, that would be great.

所以關於你的行為的問題。 Swamy，你具體在做什麼，改善這些非常令人失望的結果的計劃是什麼？我的意思是我看到你呼籲削減可自由支配的成本並確保更多的通脹復甦，這可能在你的控制範圍內，也可能不在你的控制範圍內，但讓我們假設——我認為市場將假設不完全在你的控制範圍內。你對歐洲的一家工廠發表講話。但現在是時候了嗎——從我對 Magna 的了解來看，從來沒有真正發生過——你已經很久沒有進行更徹底的重組了，因為你總是有 Magna 的方式，而且還在不斷發生。但是，當您的利潤率下降並且您的資本支出正在上升到您需要在重組方面做一些更重要的事情的環境時，這是否有機會。如果您能具體說明我們應該如何考慮這一點，那就太好了。

Fair point. Very good question. I think if you think back from 2018 timeframe, we did actually restructure and talked about the cost base. And unfortunately, with the COVID and everything, we didn't see the impact that we thought we would but we did see it and we got to offset by a lot of stuff. So that's one.

有道理。很好的問題。我想如果你回顧 2018 年的時間框架，我們實際上確實進行了重組並討論了成本基礎。不幸的是，對於 COVID 和一切，我們沒有看到我們認為會產生的影響，但我們確實看到了，我們必須用很多東西來抵消。這就是一個。

Discretionary spending and past recoveries are just a couple of elements that we're talking about. But I think like I said, one of the key factors is looking at -- production volatility is given. Hopefully, it gets better, but it's been that long enough. We are looking at how the discussions we had and how do we address it. So we can have a little bit of a more stable run rate and look at cost optimization across, whether it is to offset the labor inflation side of things, or some of the other cost inputs that are coming. That's going to be important for us. So that, I would say, is the more broad sweeping initiative across the company.

可自由支配的支出和過去的複蘇只是我們正在談論的幾個要素。但我認為，就像我說的那樣，關鍵因素之一是關注——生產波動是給定的。希望它會變得更好，但已經夠久了。我們正在研究我們的討論方式以及我們如何解決它。因此，我們可以有一點更穩定的運行率，並著眼於成本優化，無論是抵消勞動力通脹方面的事情，還是即將到來的其他一些成本投入。這對我們來說很重要。因此，我想說，這是整個公司範圍更廣的全面舉措。

In terms of restructuring, I think that is an annual process that we go through to see reconsolidation divestitures. If you look back in the last 3 years, we've done that and we continue to do so. But I think the key is going to be looking at how do we get the cost base and new cost base, given the volumes that we're seeing over the near-term and the midterm, which is not really recovering to the 2019 levels. I would say that is going to be the fundamental focus and priority for us, to get the class basis to where we need to give the volumes. And I think the volatility is something we have to take into account will be there, and we have to address it.

在重組方面，我認為這是我們看到重組資產剝離的年度過程。如果您回顧過去 3 年，我們已經做到了，而且我們會繼續這樣做。但我認為關鍵是要考慮我們如何獲得成本基礎和新的成本基礎，因為我們在近期和中期看到的數量並沒有真正恢復到 2019 年的水平。我想說的是，這將成為我們的基本重點和優先事項，讓班級基礎達到我們需要提供數量的地方。而且我認為波動是我們必須考慮的事情，我們必須解決它。

And if I can just add, Swamy. Sorry, Adam, when you think about that infrastructure, we -- Swamy mentioned, we have done significant restructuring. We've looked at the product portfolio and taken out -- whether it's significant groups. But the outlook we do provide on a, I would say, a adjusted basis. So we do have significant restructuring even in our 2020 to 2022 period, we recorded significant charges in Q4, and we're going to continue to restructure our footprint for a couple of reasons; one is [a vice transition] to the BEVs we're going to have transition has to happen there. But we're also transitioning our footprint from higher-cost regions into best-cost countries, and that's going to continue.

如果我可以補充一下，Swamy。抱歉，亞當，當你想到基礎設施時，我們——斯瓦米提到，我們已經進行了重大重組。我們已經查看了產品組合併取出 - 無論是重要的群體。但我們確實在調整後的基礎上提供了前景。因此，即使在 2020 年至 2022 年期間，我們也確實進行了重大重組，我們在第四季度記錄了大量費用，並且出於幾個原因，我們將繼續重組我們的足跡；一個是向 BEV 的[副過渡]，我們必須在那裡進行過渡。但我們也正在將我們的足跡從成本較高的地區轉移到成本最佳的國家，而且這種情況將繼續下去。

So when you look historically, where we have those cost, those are going to continue in the future as we move forward. And some of the margin improvement we're anticipating on the earlier question is driven by these restructuring actions.

因此，當你回顧歷史時，我們有這些成本，隨著我們的前進，這些成本將在未來繼續存在。我們在較早的問題上預期的一些利潤率改善是由這些重組行動推動的。

Just one follow-up on the capital intensity. You look back 10 years, 20 years on Magna and your CapEx has been around 4% of sales. And I've never seen it at 6%. You're going to be near there this year. You called out that, that's kind of temporary and it will decline thereafter. But beyond that, as we think of the shape of decline from 6%, are we -- is 4% the wrong number? Is a new normal, maybe closer to 5%? It seems like the capital intensity in the business might be structurally rising for the next few years. Am I wrong there? Should we kind of throw that 4% out the window?

只是關於資本密集度的一項後續行動。回顧麥格納 10 年、20 年，您的資本支出佔銷售額的 4% 左右。而且我從未見過它達到 6%。今年你將接近那裡。你喊出來了，那是暫時的，之後會下降。但除此之外，當我們考慮從 6% 開始下降的形狀時，我們是否 - 4% 是錯誤的數字？是新常態，可能接近 5%？未來幾年，該行業的資本密集度似乎可能會結構性上升。我錯了嗎？我們應該把那 4% 扔到窗外嗎？

I think in the near-term, Adam, the 4% would be below. I was at a very -- actually Swamy, myself, we were at a very capital-intensive group in our career. And really what you see when you look at a cycle where you have awards, the growth is just not lumpy. And right now, with the growth that's ahead of us, you're putting heavy investment in and this is beyond a Magna issue as well where you're growing with a new industry when you're looking at EV penetration is going up, and we're transitioning our portfolios from one to the other. But more importantly, we're growing with new products that requires significant capital.

我認為在短期內，亞當，4% 會低於這個水平。我在一個非常——實際上是斯瓦米，我自己，我們在我們的職業生涯中處於一個非常資本密集的集團。當你看到一個你有獎勵的周期時，你真的會看到，增長並不是顛簸的。現在，隨著我們前面的增長，你正在投入大量投資，這已經超出了麥格納的問題，當你看到電動汽車的普及率正在上升時，你正在與一個新行業一起成長，而且我們正在將我們的投資組合從一個轉移到另一個。但更重要的是，我們正在發展需要大量資金的新產品。

So we are above 5%. We expect to be above 5% through our outlook period but it's going to normalize. Where is it going to normalize down to? I see no reason it wouldn't normalize back down to where we've operated historically.

所以我們高於 5%。我們預計在我們的展望期內會超過 5%，但它會正常化。它將正常化到哪裡？我認為沒有理由不正常化回到我們歷史上的運營水平。

And a little bit more color, Adam. I think we operated generally around $1.8 billion or so, even for 2022, and we ended up at $1.7 billion. Some of it was deferrals into '23. And as I mentioned, we had a record level of awards in 2022. That means requires capital prior to program launches. And as I said, this is a 30% higher than 5-year average bookings. So I would say about $500 million of that is in 2023 alone is in the megatrend areas. This includes battery enclosures, which is the lion's share, and along with power and electrification and new mobility.

還有一點顏色，亞當。我認為即使到 2022 年，我們的運營總體上也約為 18 億美元左右，最終達到 17 億美元。其中一些是推遲到 23 年。正如我提到的，我們在 2022 年獲得了創紀錄的獎勵水平。這意味著在項目啟動之前需要資金。正如我所說，這比 5 年的平均預訂量高出 30%。所以我想說，僅在 2023 年，就有大約 5 億美元在大趨勢領域。這包括電池外殼，這是最大的份額，以及動力和電氣化以及新的移動性。

But I think as Pat mentioned, we expect this to be back to the normal levels. We are confident that how we see it unless there is a new business, which would be good news at that point. But the ratio should be back to where we historically have been.

但我認為正如帕特所說，我們希望這會回到正常水平。除非有新業務，否則我們對我們的看法充滿信心，這在那時將是個好消息。但該比率應該回到我們歷史上的水平。

But Adam, if I could just add, just to be clear, these investment decisions are return-based transactions, and we haven't compromised our return expectations. This is capital that we're growing. If you come back to our capital allocation strategy, its #1 priority is to grow the business, grow it internally, externally, whether it's greenfield, brownfield. But if we're generating returns at our appropriate expectations, that's our priority, and we continue down that path. We haven't made a decision to decrease returns with the objective of growing sales. This is -- the objective is to grow returns in the future and drive value for shareholders.

但是亞當，如果我可以補充一點，只是為了清楚起見，這些投資決策是基於回報的交易，我們並沒有損害我們的回報預期。這是我們正在成長的資本。如果你回到我們的資本配置策略，它的第一要務是發展業務，在內部和外部發展，無論是綠地還是棕地。但如果我們以適當的預期產生回報，那就是我們的首要任務，我們將繼續沿著這條道路前進。我們還沒有做出以增加銷售額為目標而減少退貨的決定。這是 - 目標是在未來增加回報並為股東創造價值。

Our next question is from the line of Peter Sklar with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Peter Sklar。

You've talked this morning about the elevated level of engineering costs that you're incurring. It sounds, like they're mostly related to vehicle electrification and ADAS. So can you talk about, like how do you get a return on that investment? Is there a customer reimbursement and this is a timing issue? Or do you recover it through the programs? And I assume you recover these costs through the programs. And when is the crossover point when these programs are [almost] sufficient? They ramp -- they've begun, they've ramped, they're of sufficient scale that you start to recover some of these costs?

你今天早上談到了你所承擔的工程成本的增加。聽起來，它們主要與車輛電氣化和 ADAS 有關。那麼你能談談，比如你如何獲得投資回報嗎？是否有客戶報銷，這是一個時間問題？還是通過程序恢復？我假設你通過這些項目收回這些成本。這些程序[幾乎]足夠時的交叉點是什麼時候？他們增加了——他們已經開始了，他們已經增加了，他們的規模足以讓你開始收回其中的一些成本？

Peter, I'll start and Swamy, jump in. So when you think about the engineering spend, we say they're elevated. I would say they're fairly consistent with our previous outlook where we would have been guiding. When you think about some of these new types of products we're getting into, they're higher engineering and we just spoke about capital intensity, and that applies in our industrial group where you buy assembly lines, brick, mortar that type.

Peter，我先開始，Swamy 加入。因此，當您考慮工程支出時，我們說它們增加了。我會說它們與我們之前的指導展望相當一致。當你想到我們正在研究的一些新型產品時，它們是更高的工程，我們剛剛談到了資本密集度，這適用於我們的工業集團，在那裡你購買裝配線，磚，砂漿那種類型。

When you move into electrification and ADAS type programs, your capital spend tends to be lower, but it's replaced with an engineering analysis. But our program analysis, our quoting models don't change. It's still viewed as a -- if we treat it effectively as a capital spend. So that's kind of the return profile.

當您進入電氣化和 ADAS 類型的項目時，您的資本支出往往會降低，但它會被工程分析所取代。但是我們的程序分析，我們的報價模型沒有改變。它仍然被視為 - 如果我們將其有效地視為資本支出。這就是回報情況。

When you think about the engineering spend that goes through our books, It is -- as you said, it's two pieces. There's a piece that's up some upfront payments prior to program prior to SOP. The second portion is you might have it recovered. So you'll see this other asset spend we referred to and this is guaranteed spending that we recover over the program life. And then the third obviously just comes through piece price recoveries. All that means a long answer, our expectations are we we're going to win, we're going to recover all that engineering spend and the returns on those programs are equal to the returns we achieved in the rest of our portfolio.

當您考慮我們書籍中的工程支出時，正如您所說，它是兩部分。在 SOP 之前的計劃之前，有一部分需要預付款。第二部分是您可能會恢復它。所以你會看到我們提到的其他資產支出，這是我們在項目生命週期內恢復的保證支出。然後第三個顯然只是通過計件價格恢復來的。所有這一切都意味著一個很長的答案，我們的期望是我們將獲勝，我們將收回所有工程支出，這些項目的回報與我們在其他投資組合中獲得的回報相等。

And I think that's one of the things we said that we are expecting the net engineering to be relatively neutral to earnings through our after period and it's going to be $900 million annually as we have talked in the past. So just talking about the Q4, it's just a matter of timing.

而且我認為這是我們說過的事情之一，我們希望淨工程在我們的後期對收益相對中性，並且正如我們過去所說的那樣，每年將達到 9 億美元。所以只談Q4，只是時間問題。

Okay. And I believe I heard you say, Pat, that you expect that earnings are going through -- 2023 quarterly earnings are going to improve sequentially about the earnings level on an adjusted basis in Q1 would be less than the Q4 that you just reported today. And when I look at -- just looking at the industry vehicle production volumes, like North America and Europe are going to be up quarter-over-quarter. So why -- what are the dynamics that's causing Q1 to look a little bit weaker than Q4?

好的。我相信我聽到你說，帕特，你預計收益正在經歷 - 2023 年季度收益將連續改善，第一季度調整後的收益水平將低於你今天剛剛報告的第四季度。當我看 - 只看行業汽車產量時，北美和歐洲將環比增長。那麼為什麼 - 導致第一季度看起來比第四季度弱一點的動力是什麼？

So if you think about Q4, you normalize it for some of the unusuals, and we take that. I would say that's factors going one way. When we move into Q1, we did have some positive commercial settlements in Q4 that just the nature of how these discussions proceed, Peter, and a split of what's continuing versus what's new. Those discussions will [tend to resolve], so we're conservative in our accounting procedure. So we're going to only record those recoveries as incurred or received. So I think it's slightly below Q4 levels, Peter, and then we're going to see growth as we come through.

因此，如果您考慮 Q4，您會針對一些異常情況將其標準化，我們會接受。我會說這是單向的因素。當我們進入第一季度時，我們在第四季度確實取得了一些積極的商業和解，這些談判的性質就是這些討論的進行方式，彼得，以及繼續進行的內容與新內容的分歧。這些討論將 [趨於解決]，因此我們在我們的會計程序中是保守的。因此，我們將只記錄發生或收到的這些回收。所以我認為它略低於第四季度的水平，彼得，然後我們將看到增長。

And the other factor you have to consider is as we go through the year, we're expecting volatility in the industry to improve just as we move throughout the year. So I would say it's a combination of unusual items in Q4, it's the inflation recovery is being pushed into Q2, Q3, Q4 similar to what we experienced this year, and then normalization of the OEM production schedules.

你必須考慮的另一個因素是，隨著我們度過這一年，我們預計行業的波動性會隨著我們全年的發展而改善。所以我想說這是第 4 季度不尋常項目的組合，通脹復甦被推到第 2、3、4 季度，類似於我們今年經歷的情況，然後是 OEM 生產計劃的正常化。

Okay. And then just lastly, like one of the issues that you've raised for -- on the Q4 earnings has been higher warranty accruals. So what's going on? Is there any one program that caused this? Or is it just kind of random from quarter to quarter?

好的。最後，就像你提出的問題之一——第四季度的收益是更高的保修應計費用。發生什麼了？是否有任何一個程序導致了這種情況？還是每個季度都是隨機的？

No, Peter, I think this was specific, one product line or one program product in electronics that cost the warranty issue in the (inaudible) segment. Can't get into the specifics, obviously, with the customer in all of that. But it was one specific program, contained and understood. It is done. It's behind us, and it's related to electronics.

不，彼得，我認為這是特定的，電子產品中的一個產品線或一個程序產品導致了（聽不清）部分的保修問題。顯然，在所有這些方面都無法與客戶討論細節。但這是一個特定的程序，包含並理解。完成了。它在我們身後，它與電子產品有關。

Our next question is from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克德萊尼。

The company's 2025 EBIT margin outlook is about 100 bps lower than what the company thought it was going to do for 2024 when you gave that 3-year plan a year ago. The revenue views are pretty similar to what you think you'll do in '25 versus what you thought in '24. So it doesn't seem like there's any change to the revenue view that 3 years 4, but margins are now 100 bps or so lower. So could you bridge us what's changed on the EBIT margin potential of the business in 3 years?

公司 2025 年的息稅前利潤率前景比一年前你給出 3 年計劃時公司認為的 2024 年要低約 100 個基點。收入觀點與你在 25 年和 24 年的想法非常相似。因此，3 年 4 年的收入觀點似乎沒有任何變化，但利潤率現在降低了 100 個基點左右。那麼，您能否告訴我們 3 年內該業務的 EBIT 利潤率潛力發生了什麼變化？

Yes, I would say the most meaningful change from what we said last February to what we're talking about is lower volumes, right? We talked about the higher level of net input costs and lost sales and contribution from our business in Russia. I would say those are the significant points that account for the change.

是的，我會說從我們去年 2 月所說的到我們現在談論的最有意義的變化是銷量下降，對吧？我們談到了更高水平的淨投入成本以及我們在俄羅斯業務的銷售和貢獻損失。我會說這些是造成變化的重要因素。

And you've got to look at margin loss, right? Our percentage has been negatively impacted by increased revenues and costs from inflation. And I keep repeating this, but if the -- if you take into account the loss due to the volatility in production schedules, the inefficiencies, we're not discounting that. It will be fully done. Hopefully, it does, but that's been a negating factor, too.

而且您必須考慮保證金損失，對嗎？我們的百分比受到通貨膨脹帶來的收入和成本增加的負面影響。我一直在重複這一點，但如果 - 如果你考慮到由於生產計劃的波動和效率低下而造成的損失，我們不會打折。它將完全完成。希望它確實如此，但這也是一個否定因素。

Got it. And my second question was on the pricing environment and the ability for Magna to get recoveries from customers. Maybe you can elaborate a little bit more specifically on what happened in the fourth quarter? Because I know it was a positive in the quarter, but I don't think it was as much of a positive as the company had originally been guiding for. So what happened in the fourth quarter on recoveries? And can you talk a little bit more on what's assumed in recoveries for 2023 in terms of what would get the company to the lower end of the guidance? And what would have to happen with recoveries to get to the higher end of the guidance?

知道了。我的第二個問題是關於定價環境和麥格納從客戶那裡獲得補償的能力。或許你可以更具體地闡述一下第四季度發生的事情？因為我知道這在本季度是積極的，但我認為這並不像公司最初指導的那樣積極。那麼第四季度的複蘇情況如何？您能否更多地談談 2023 年復甦的假設是什麼將使公司達到指導的低端？為了達到指導的更高端，回收率會發生什麼？

I think, Mark, maybe I just want to clarify. We have guided to, from a net cost inflation-wise, was about $565 million in our Q1 April, and we ended up at $530 million. So that was one. I mean when we talk about settlements, I think we've got to take all of this into account as we've had discussions, right? Some of it is -- are coming in terms of more process-oriented long-term adjustments in terms of our recovery. Some of it is coming in lump sums. And some of it is offset to give back and so on.

我想，馬克，也許我只是想澄清一下。從淨成本通脹角度來看，我們在 4 月份第一季度的指導價約為 5.65 億美元，最終達到 5.3 億美元。那就是一個。我的意思是，當我們談論定居點時，我認為我們必須考慮到所有這些，因為我們已經進行了討論，對嗎？其中一些是 - 就我們的複蘇而言，更多以過程為導向的長期調整正在到來。其中一些是一次性付款的。其中一些被抵消以回饋等等。

So were the customers have, for example, a change in [Russian] footprint or volume agreements that -- contracts, that ends up in commercial settlements. So our guide to what we said the net inflation cost was going to be, I think we held and did better. Commercial settlements are really a little bit in terms of negotiations overall, which ended up in the fourth quarter.

例如，客戶是否有 [俄羅斯] 足跡或數量協議的變化 - 合同最終以商業結算形式出現。因此，我們對我們所說的淨通脹成本的指導是，我認為我們堅持並做得更好。商業和解在整體談判方面確實有點，在第四季度結束。

Just to add to that. So Swamy, you're exactly right. So relative to expectations, we outperformed and that's what drove the decrease from the $550 million down to the $530 million Mark, on a year-over-year basis, you're correct, where we do have headwinds on a year-over-year basis. So relative to expectations we outperformed on a year-over-year basis -- it's all for the quarter.

只是為了補充這一點。所以斯瓦米，你是完全正確的。因此，相對於預期，我們的表現優於預期，這就是導致同比下降的原因是從 5.5 億美元下降到 5.3 億美元，你是對的，我們確實遇到了同比逆風基礎。因此，相對於我們在同比基礎上的表現優於預期——這都是本季度的表現。

Okay. And just one last one for me, if I could, please. The warranty expense, I believe I heard it's contained to '22. So you're not expecting that to be an issue in the '23 guide. This underperforming facility, maybe you can elaborate how much of a headwind do you expect that to be (inaudible)?

好的。請給我最後一張，如果可以的話。保修費用，我相信我聽說它包含在 22 年。所以您不認為這會成為 '23 指南中的問題。這個表現不佳的設施，也許你可以詳細說明你預計會有多大的逆風（聽不清）？

Relative to '22, Mark, the operating facility in Europe is expected to be a positive. So as we said earlier, we have the headwinds of '22, relative to expectations. We move into '23, we're seeing improvements. We have this is full focus. We have a team dedicated to it. And we're driving to execute everything Swamy is talking about as far as increasing capacity, reducing the outsource, and we're seeing the benefits of those actions take place already, and they're going to continue to improve both throughout the year.

相對於'22，馬克，歐洲的運營設施預計將是積極的。因此，正如我們之前所說，相對於預期，我們面臨 22 年的逆風。我們進入 23 年，我們看到了改進。我們有這個是全焦點。我們有一個專門的團隊。我們正在推動執行 Swamy 所說的一切，包括增加容量、減少外包，我們看到這些行動的好處已經發生，而且它們將在全年繼續改進。

Our next question is from the line Itay Michaeli with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Itay Michaeli。

Just two questions for me. I was hoping that we could go through some of the segment margin walk on Slide 30 and particularly on a complete vehicle assembly for '23 and 2025.

只問我兩個問題。我希望我們能夠在 Slide 30 上完成一些細分市場利潤率走動，特別是在 23 年和 2025 年的整車裝配上。

And then just secondly, hoping you could also comment on kind of what you're seeing the latest on overall production volatility by region and whether you're starting to see any signs of stabilization that kind of supports the outlook for improvement in Q2 and beyond.

其次，希望您也能評論一下您所看到的按地區劃分的整體生產波動的最新情況，以及您是否開始看到任何支持第二季度及以後改善前景的穩定跡象.

It's Pat. I'll start with the first one as far as the margins in complete vehicles, and Swamy can jump in on the schedules. So looking at the complete vehicles, the margin from 2022 into 2023, there's a few factors that are driving that. In '22, we did have -- we did benefit from some customer settlements and licensing income, so we have licensed out at EE architecture. Both of those are expected to recur in 2023. Those two factors are a negative drag of about 70 basis points.

是帕特。就整車的利潤率而言，我將從第一個開始，Swamy 可以加入時間表。所以看看整車，從 2022 年到 2023 年的利潤率，有幾個因素在推動它。在 22 年，我們確實有——我們確實從一些客戶結算和許可收入中受益，所以我們已經在 EE 架構上獲得許可。預計這兩個因素都將在 2023 年再次出現。這兩個因素造成了大約 70 個基點的負面拖累。

The second bucket I would refer to is we do have higher input costs. This is an operation in Europe where we do have significant labor and energy headwinds. And at the same time, we do have engineering program specific costs that are accelerating in 2023 versus '22. Those two factors combined for about a 90 basis point impact.

我要提到的第二個桶是我們確實有更高的投入成本。這是在歐洲開展的一項業務，我們確實面臨著巨大的勞動力和能源阻力。與此同時，我們確實有工程項目的特定成本在 2023 年與 22 年相比正在加速。這兩個因素加在一起產生了大約 90 個基點的影響。

And then obviously, as we've discussed previously, we're transitioning that facility as we move certain programs out and launch new ones. And those costs are a drag on earnings just by the nature of incurring costs and lower revenues.

然後很明顯，正如我們之前所討論的那樣，我們正在轉移該設施，因為我們將某些程序移出並啟動新程序。這些成本只是由於產生成本和收入減少的性質而拖累收益。

Terrific. That's very helpful. And maybe just a comment on the production volatility.

了不起。這很有幫助。也許只是對生產波動的評論。

Yes. I think the production volatility in terms of a couple of programs, right, significantly lower than what the expected volumes were. And we always plan to some degree, launch-related costs where there's more than estimated, sometimes as the launches go through. And I think there is a little bit in terms of that level of cost associated with this transition that's been a drag.

是的。我認為就幾個項目而言，生產波動性大大低於預期的數量。我們總是在某種程度上計劃與發射相關的成本，這些成本超出了估計，有時是在發射進行時。而且我認為與這種過渡相關的成本水平有點拖累。

Our next question is from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Colin Langan 與 Wells Fargo 的合作。

Just wanted to follow-up on input costs. You noted it was $150 million for this year. Any color on what percent recoveries you're kind of assuming in that, so we can kind of gauge the sort of expectations there? And you said you ended at $530 million for '22. Is the long-term plan to get 100% of that? Any color on that? And of that, when you negotiated last year, is all of that locked in? Or do you have to renegotiate if costs don't come down versus (inaudible)?

只是想跟進投入成本。你注意到今年是 1.5 億美元。您假設其中的恢復百分比有任何顏色，因此我們可以衡量那裡的期望值嗎？你說你在 22 年以 5.3 億美元收場。獲得 100% 的長期計劃是什麼？上面有顏色嗎？其中，當你去年談判時，所有這些都被鎖定了嗎？或者，如果成本沒有下降（聽不清），您是否必須重新談判？

As I said in my previous comments and to a previous question, some of these settlements, right, are long-term (inaudible) changes in [Page 5] going forward programs being [invested], which takes a bit of volatility and so on. And some of it is just addressing the amount specific to the year of '22. But it does give us a framework and a precedent. So it's a combination of addressing both together. We won't get into the specifics of customers and how and what.

正如我在之前的評論和之前的問題中所說，其中一些和解是 [第 5 頁] 正在 [投資] 的未來計劃的長期（聽不清）變化，這需要一些波動等等.其中一些只是解決特定於 22 年的金額。但它確實為我們提供了一個框架和一個先例。所以它是同時解決這兩個問題的組合。我們不會深入了解客戶的具體情況以及方式和內容。

I can definitely say that we have started the discussions in Q4. The customers know where we stand. Obviously, we want the economics to reflect the currency in terms of where the market is. So it's a combination of those.

我可以肯定地說，我們已經在第四季度開始了討論。客戶知道我們的立場。顯然，我們希望經濟學根據市場所在位置來反映貨幣。所以它是這些的組合。

Like Pat mentioned, there's a lot of these discussions ongoing. And then we're going to use what we had in '22, but the discussions on '22, even or pre-'23, I would say it's not even done, right? So we continue to pursue recoveries on all aspects, not just for '23, but some elements of '22.

就像 Pat 提到的，有很多這樣的討論正在進行中。然後我們將使用我們在 22 年擁有的東西，但是關於 22 年甚至 23 年之前的討論，我會說它甚至還沒有完成，對吧？因此，我們繼續在各個方面尋求恢復，不僅是'23，還有'22 的一些元素。

I guess just put it another way, I mean, are you thinking of this as this is your portion of the costs that you're going to have to find ways of coming out over time? Or you're thinking customers, eventually, you'll be able to get this through customers in some period? As I think other slides have talked some of this -- is just a responsibility at this point.

我想換一種說法，我的意思是，你是否在考慮這個，因為這是你必須找到隨著時間的推移出現的成本的一部分？或者你在考慮客戶，最終，你將能夠在一段時間內通過客戶獲得這個？我認為其他幻燈片已經談到了其中的一些內容——此時只是一種責任。

Some of it is -- it's both, right? There are some which are indexed, some which are -- I talked about production volatility and scheduling. We definitely want -- we (inaudible) in helping. And as we said, we did not cause any disruptions, but it comes at a cost. So we have to work together to figure out how to reduce that volatility, so we can address the cost base and health efficiency overall.

其中一些是——兩者兼而有之，對吧？有些是索引的，有些是——我談到了生產波動和調度。我們絕對希望——我們（聽不清）提供幫助。正如我們所說，我們沒有造成任何中斷，但這是有代價的。因此，我們必須共同努力，找出減少這種波動的方法，這樣我們才能解決成本基礎和整體健康效率問題。

But on the other hand, we are not saying it's just everything outside. In my prepared comments, I did talk about continuous improvements in setting -- resetting, I would say, the cost base, but that can be done only to work together. So it's kind of a bilateral but there are some issues which we continue to push in terms of recoveries is wafer energy or commodity costs.

但另一方面，我們並不是說它只是外面的一切。在我準備好的評論中，我確實談到了設置方面的持續改進——重置，我想說，成本基礎，但這只能通過合作來完成。所以這是一種雙邊關係，但我們在恢復方面繼續推動的一些問題是晶圓能源或商品成本。

Got it. And just if I go to the slides last year, you targeted a pretty impressive $6 billion in free cash flow from '22 to '24. If I look at the slides this year, the same period looks like it's adding up to something less than $2 billion. I mean what are the main drivers here? Is it just -- obviously, CapEx has stepped up. And kind of why is that, it's only been a year? And then I assume a lot of it's the margin weakness. Anything else from a working capital perspective that's sort of impacting that number that we should be considering?

知道了。就在我去年看幻燈片的時候，你的目標是從 22 歲到 24 歲的自由現金流達到令人印象深刻的 60 億美元。如果我看一下今年的幻燈片，同期的總和似乎不到 20 億美元。我的意思是這裡的主要驅動因素是什麼？只是——顯然，資本支出已經增加了。為什麼會這樣，才一年呢？然後我認為其中很大一部分是利潤率疲軟。從營運資金的角度來看，還有什麼會影響我們應該考慮的數字嗎？

Colin, it's Pat. When I think of where we were last and where we stand today, I think the biggest variances are a few, right? We talked -- Swamy touched earlier on the margin question, if we just focus out to 2025. So we're impacted by we've seen significant volume, geopolitical issues in Europe that are driving volumes down for those effectively throughout our whole [level of] period, which drive the inflation significantly. If you think about our outlook, we provided last year, we updated in the appropriate book and reflect an additional $290 million primarily of energy cost. So we have -- and then the third thing, as Swamy said earlier, we were forced (inaudible) Russian operations.

科林，是帕特。當我想到我們過去的位置和今天的位置時，我認為最大的差異是少數，對吧？我們談過——如果我們只關注 2025 年，Swamy 早些時候談到了利潤率問題。因此，我們受到了影響，因為我們看到歐洲的大量地緣政治問題正在有效地推動我們整個 [level] 的交易量下降of] 期間，這顯著推動了通貨膨脹。如果你考慮一下我們去年提供的展望，我們在適當的書中進行了更新，並反映了額外的 2.9 億美元，主要是能源成本。所以我們 - 然後是第三件事，正如 Swamy 早些時候所說的那樣，我們被迫（聽不清）俄羅斯行動。

So you have on the P&L side, you have those factors driving our earnings. And then we have significant growth above where we expected last year. And when you think about that growth that flips into what we see in our cash flow statement, which is driving higher capital, whether it's accelerated, but it's significant capital to our growth. So long answer, but I think it's a combination of volumes, input costs offset and typically just the growth that's driving the cash.

所以你在損益方面，你有這些因素推動我們的收益。然後我們的增長顯著高於去年的預期。當你考慮到我們在現金流量表中看到的增長時，它正在推動更高的資本，無論它是否加速，但它對我們的增長來說是重要的資本。這麼長的答案，但我認為這是數量、投入成本抵消以及通常只是推動現金增長的組合。

Our next question is from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rod Lache 與 Wolfe Research 的合作。

As we look out to 2025, you do have the (inaudible) get back to over $3 billion of EBIT is similar for you back in 2018, but on much higher revenue and more capital than we saw back then. And I was just hoping you can address whether the business is structurally less profitable going forward. And I'm not -- I'm still not sure I understand what you're assuming with regard to the, I guess, it $680 million of higher input costs, the $150 million this year and the $530 million last year. Are you assuming that, that essentially gets recovered by mid-decade?

當我們展望 2025 年時，您確實有（聽不清）回到超過 30 億美元的息稅前利潤與 2018 年相似，但收入和資本比我們當時看到的要高得多。我只是希望你能解決該業務未來是否在結構上盈利能力下降的問題。而且我不是 - 我仍然不確定我是否理解你對 6.8 億美元的更高投入成本的假設，今年的 1.5 億美元和去年的 5.3 億美元。您是否假設到 20 世紀中期基本上會恢復？

So Rod, maybe I'll answer the second part of that question. Swamy can jump in on the first. On the -- so for 2022 versus 2021, we had net input cost headwinds of $530 million. And that's what was reflected as an EBIT hit, I would say. As we move into 2023, the additional $150 million is a combination of headwinds. We have inflationary costs primarily in Europe for -- well, labor is actually global, but we're seeing labor headwinds where we're operating the increases are in the mid-digits for above standard across the globe. And we also have continued energy headwinds in Europe. So those are the first two buckets driving headwinds into '23. And the other part of it -- that's $100 million on a net basis, net of recoveries.

所以羅德，也許我會回答這個問題的第二部分。斯瓦米可以率先介入。在 - 所以對於 2022 年與 2021 年，我們的淨投入成本逆風為 5.3 億美元。我會說，這就是 EBIT 命中所反映的。隨著我們進入 2023 年，額外的 1.5 億美元是逆風的組合。我們的通貨膨脹成本主要在歐洲——好吧，勞動力實際上是全球性的，但我們看到勞動力逆風，我們正在經營的增長在全球範圍內高於標準的中等數字。我們在歐洲也面臨著持續的能源逆風。所以這些是前兩個水桶將逆風帶入 23 年。而它的另一部分——扣除回收後的淨額為 1 億美元。

The second part is scrap, and these are contractual scrap balances month to month per contract. So to answer your question, we have a $150 million incremental EBIT charge in '23 versus '22.

第二部分是廢料，這些是每個合同每月的合同廢料餘額。因此，為了回答您的問題，我們在 23 年和 22 年增加了 1.5 億美元的息稅前利潤。

Sorry, I was asking about whether you have that reversing by 2025. The combination of these headwinds. Are you anticipating that in this $3 billion of EBIT that you're projecting by then that, that has been fully recovered or resolved now?

抱歉，我問的是到 2025 年是否會出現這種逆轉。這些不利因素的結合。您是否預計到那時您預測的這 30 億美元的息稅前利潤已經完全恢復或解決？

No. So it's -- a portion would roll off, Rod, as contracts launch. So you have a combination of old economics, new economics. And as we continue our business and you think about our launch period, these inflationary headwinds started hitting roughly this time last year. So as we move forward and launch new business, that will reflect new economics. So -- 2025 portion would reflect a combination of old and new. So the answer is somewhere in between.

不，所以它是——一部分會隨著合同的啟動而減少，Rod。所以你有舊經濟學和新經濟學的結合。當我們繼續我們的業務並且您考慮我們的啟動期時，這些通貨膨脹的不利因素大約在去年這個時候開始出現。因此，隨著我們向前發展並開展新業務，這將反映新經濟學。所以 - 2025 部分將反映新舊結合。所以答案介於兩者之間。

And some of this rollover changes, like labor inflation is going to be sticky and we have to offset that in terms of continuous improvements and other, call it, structural improvements going forward and accelerate the continuous improvement as we talked about.

而其中一些翻轉變化，比如勞動力通脹將變得很棘手，我們必須在持續改進和其他方面抵消它，稱之為結構性改進，並加速我們談到的持續改進。

And to address the first part of your question, Rod, I'm confident that it is not a fundamental shift in the profile of the business, right? I think some of the things that we talked about is actually the transition of all these input cost effects and the higher investment that we're making for the businesses that we've won.

為了解決你問題的第一部分，Rod，我相信這不是業務概況的根本轉變，對吧？我認為我們討論的一些事情實際上是所有這些投入成本效應的轉變，以及我們為我們贏得的業務所做的更高投資。

I think as we transition through in the long-term, I believe there is no foundational or fundamental change in the profile of the business. So the 2018, in terms of percentages of ratios, we can get back to. But I think the more important part is that's weighing on us is the uncertainty of what's going on in the industry right now.

我認為，隨著我們長期過渡，我相信業務概況不會發生根本性或根本性的變化。所以 2018 年，就比率的百分比而言，我們可以回到。但我認為更重要的部分是給我們帶來壓力的是目前行業中正在發生的事情的不確定性。

And just Swamy, just in light of what's happening in the market and strategies of some of your peers, are you still of the view that diversification is a net positive for Magna? Or just given the complexity of issues in different parts of the company that we've seen over years, is there more benefit from focus on and having some of the businesses you're kind of independent response?

就 Swamy 而言，鑑於市場上正在發生的事情和一些同行的戰略，你是否仍然認為多元化對 Magna 來說是一個淨積極因素？或者只是考慮到我們多年來看到的公司不同部門的問題的複雜性，專注於某些業務並讓您獨立應對是否會帶來更多好處？

Yes, Rod, I think if I understood your question, you're talking about the portfolio of products and the focus related question. I tend to kind of look at what's happening in the industry and how the kind of the future is going to be designed or how is it going to be sourced is changing. And our customers that are shifting their organization even, whether it is the sourcing side of things or engineering side of things to be looking at more highly integrated systems. Some of the OEMs have already changed their organizations to address their aspect of it.

是的，Rod，我想如果我理解你的問題，你就是在談論產品組合和與焦點相關的問題。我傾向於關注行業中正在發生的事情，以及未來的設計方式或採購方式正在發生的變化。我們的客戶甚至正在改變他們的組織，無論是採購方面還是工程方面，都在尋找更高集成度的系統。一些原始設備製造商已經改變了他們的組織以解決他們的問題。

So I think we are at Magna not looking at body and chassis and seats and electronics and powertrain as independent. But more or less, what are the systems that are going to evolve going forward and how do we build those synergies to get a system approach solution to it.

所以我認為我們在麥格納並沒有將車身、底盤、座椅、電子設備和動力總成視為獨立的。但或多或少，哪些系統將在未來發展，我們如何建立這些協同作用以獲得系統方法解決方案。

With that said, we continuously look at each of these products how they evolve and how relevant are they going forward and what synergy values that we can bring. And if they are not, as we have done in the past, we'll do what is necessary.

話雖如此，我們會不斷關注這些產品中的每一個，它們是如何演變的，它們向前發展的相關性如何，以及我們可以帶來什麼樣的協同價值。如果他們不是，就像我們過去所做的那樣，我們將做必要的事情。

Our next question is from the line of Michael Glen with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Glen 和 Raymond James。

Just wanted to zone in a bit on the body and exteriors margins. Can you just highlight how the mega spend trend or incremental spending with megatrend is impacting that specific business? Is battery trade part of that segment? I guess I always thought it was somewhat agnostic to megatrends. But I'm just trying -- wondering if there's something there I should be thinking about?

只是想在身體和外部邊緣上劃一點。您能否強調大支出趨勢或大趨勢的增量支出如何影響該特定業務？電池貿易是該細分市場的一部分嗎？我想我一直認為它對大趨勢有些不可知論。但我只是在嘗試——想知道是否有什麼我應該考慮的？

Yes. I would say when we say it's agnostic, I think also the content that we have had and continue to have remains, although it evolves a little bit in material and process irrespective of the propulsion system. But an added addition to the product in that segment would be battery includes, right?

是的。我想說的是，當我們說它不可知時，我認為我們已經擁有並繼續擁有的內容仍然存在，儘管它在材料和工藝方面有所發展，與推進系統無關。但是，該細分市場中產品的附加功能是電池，對嗎？

As the electrification continues and we have the material mileage, the joining technologies as well as the asset base that has become a significant growth area. And we have seen that both in terms of wins of programs, but also you see the amount of investment we are making on business that's already been awarded. In some cases, it's expanding the volumes of the business that has been awarded.

隨著電氣化的繼續，我們的材料里程、連接技術以及資產基礎已成為重要的增長領域。我們已經看到，無論是在項目獲勝方面，還是在已經獲得獎勵的業務上，您都看到了我們的投資額。在某些情況下，它正在擴大已授予的業務量。

Okay. And for that $900 million number, are you able to break that down across -- how that splits across the various segments?

好的。對於這個 9 億美元的數字，您能否將其分解——如何拆分到各個細分市場？

I would say that $900 million is predominantly on the [CV] segment. As Pat talked about this year, whether it's electrification or electronics and so on are more, call it, engineering intensive. When we talk about BES, it's more capital intensive, right? But we also have to keep in mind that the asset base that we have, which is not program specific is an advantage for us, right?

我會說 9 億美元主要用於 [CV] 部分。正如帕特今年所說的那樣，無論是電氣化還是電子產品等等，都可以稱之為工程密集型。當我們談論 BES 時，它是資本密集型的，對吧？但我們也必須記住，我們擁有的資產基礎（不是特定於程序的）對我們來說是一個優勢，對嗎？

The new investments are related to the program specific once they come. And again, we follow the same philosophy of getting the right returns and looking at each of the programs.

新的投資一旦到來就與特定的項目相關。再一次，我們遵循獲得正確回報並查看每個程序的相同理念。

Yes. Okay. And the $11 billion of new business wins that you spoke about. So a; can you give some idea of how those spread across the various segments? And then as well, can you describe how the margin profile embedded in that $11 billion is different from what we've seen historically? Is it much lower on the front end of that versus what we've seen historically?

是的。好的。還有你所說的 110 億美元的新業務勝利。所以一個;你能說說這些是如何分佈在各個細分市場的嗎？然後，您能否描述一下這 110 億美元中嵌入的利潤率與我們以往看到的有何不同？與我們歷史上看到的相比，它的前端要低得多嗎？

Yes. I think as I said in my comments, I won't get into breaking up $11 billion by product line, but I definitely have mentioned and will repeat, it's across Magna. There is definitely an incremental business for the megatrend areas, and I talked about whether it's E-Drives, whether it's battery enclosures, whether it's driver monitoring systems and so on. And I just want to reiterate the business growth is always on the financial hurdles that we have followed before, which is return space, and the profile remains the same, right? So it is not a lower margins or lower hurdles financially. So I believe as we launch this business going forward, our returns profile and cash flow generation gets better.

是的。我認為正如我在評論中所說的那樣，我不會按產品線拆分 110 億美元，但我肯定已經提到並會重複一遍，它涉及 Magna。大趨勢領域肯定有增量業務，我講了是不是E-Drives，是不是電池外殼，是不是司機監控系統等等。我只想重申，業務增長始終取決於我們之前所遵循的財務障礙，即回報空間，並且概況保持不變，對嗎？因此，這不是較低的利潤率或較低的財務障礙。因此，我相信隨著我們未來推出這項業務，我們的回報狀況和現金流量產生會變得更好。

And there are no further questions on the line at this time. I'll turn the presentation back to Swamy for any closing remarks.

目前在線上沒有其他問題。我會將演示文稿轉回 Swamy 聽取任何結束語。

Thank you, Chris, and thanks, everyone, for listening into our call today. Industry conditions continue to be tough. We remain focused on controlling costs across the organization, improving underperforming operations and pursuing inflation recoveries from customers, all while executing our go-forward strategy. Enjoy the rest of your day, and thanks for listening again.

謝謝你，克里斯，也感謝大家今天聆聽我們的電話會議。行業環境依然嚴峻。我們仍然專注於控制整個組織的成本，改善表現不佳的運營並尋求客戶的通貨膨脹恢復，同時執行我們的前瞻性戰略。享受您今天剩下的時間，感謝您再次收聽。

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開您的線路。