(MGA) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Magna International Q3 2022 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加麥格納國際 2022 年第三季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Friday, November 4, 2022. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Louis Tonelli, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

提醒一下，本次會議將於 2022 年 11 月 4 日星期五錄製。現在我很高興將會議移交給投資者關係副總裁 Louis Tonelli。請繼續。

Thanks, Tina. Hello, everyone, and welcome to our conference call covering our Q3 '22 results. Joining me today are Swamy Kotagiri, Vince Galifi and Pat McCann. Yesterday, our Board of Directors met and approved our financial results for Q3 '22. We finished -- we issued our press release this morning outlining our results. You'll find the press release, today's conference call webcast, the slide presentation to go along with the call and our updated quarterly financial review all in the Investor Relations section of our website at magna.com. Before we get started, just as a reminder, the discussion today may contain forward-looking information or forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities legislation.

謝謝，蒂娜。大家好，歡迎參加我們關於 22 年第三季度業績的電話會議。今天加入我的還有 Swamy Kotagiri、Vince Galifi 和 Pat McCann。昨天，我們的董事會開會並批准了我們 22 年第三季度的財務業績。我們完成了——我們今天早上發布了我們的新聞稿，概述了我們的結果。您可以在我們網站 magna.com 的投資者關係部分找到新聞稿、今天的電話會議網絡直播、電話會議的幻燈片演示以及我們更新的季度財務回顧。在我們開始之前，提醒一下，今天的討論可能包含適用證券立法含義內的前瞻性信息或前瞻性陳述。

Such statements involve certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties, which may cause the company's actual or future results and performance to be materially different from those expressed or implied in these statements. Please refer to today's press release for a complete description of our safe harbor disclaimer.

此類陳述涉及某些風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致公司的實際或未來結果和業績與這些陳述中明示或暗示的存在重大差異。有關我們安全港免責聲明的完整說明，請參閱今天的新聞稿。

Please also refer to the reminder slide included in today's deck related to today's commentary. And with that, I'll pass it over to Swamy.

另請參閱今天的套牌中包含的與今天的評論相關的提醒幻燈片。有了這個，我會把它交給斯瓦米。

Thank you, Louis. Good morning, everyone. Happy to be here to provide a general update on Magna as well as our Q3 results. Key takeaways from today's call. We continue to manage through a difficult operating environment and our results for the third quarter improved both on a year-over-year basis and on a sequential basis compared to last quarter, excluding the disappointing performance at certain facilities, which impacted our third quarter and is contributing to our reduced outlook, our results were in line with our expectations.

謝謝你，路易斯。大家，早安。很高興在這裡提供有關麥格納的一般更新以及我們的第三季度業績。今天電話會議的主要內容。我們繼續在艱難的經營環境中進行管理，與上一季度相比，我們的第三季度業績同比和環比都有所改善，不包括某些設施令人失望的業績，這影響了我們的第三季度和正在導致我們下調前景，我們的結果符合我們的預期。

We expect another sequential improvement of earnings in Q4, including as a result of efforts to secure cost recoveries from customers, and we have reduced our sales and margin outlook for 2022, mainly reflecting increased operating inefficiencies and lower production assumptions. And while we are highly focused on addressing short-term external and internal challenges, we continue to make progress on our go-forward strategy to drive our future business.

我們預計第四季度的收益將再次連續改善，包括努力確保從客戶那裡收回成本，並且我們降低了 2022 年的銷售額和利潤率前景，主要反映了運營效率低下的增加和生產假設的降低。雖然我們高度專注於解決短期的外部和內部挑戰，但我們繼續在推進戰略方面取得進展，以推動我們未來的業務。

Let me briefly cover the current dynamics impacting the industry. We continue to experience supply constraints in particular, semiconductors. Improvement in the second half of 2022 is not as much as expected. At this point, we anticipate some ongoing scheduled choppiness through the end of the year and into the first half of 2023. Input costs remain elevated with higher energy costs in Europe, the most recent factor. We continue to make progress in customer recoveries and our discussions with customers continue. Relative to our previous outlook, we expect only a modest increase in our net input cost for 2022.

讓我簡要介紹一下影響該行業的當前動態。我們繼續面臨供應限制，尤其是半導體。 2022年下半年的改善不如預期。在這一點上，我們預計到今年年底和 2023 年上半年會出現一些持續的波動。隨著歐洲能源成本的上漲，投入成本仍然很高，這是最近的一個因素。我們繼續在客戶恢復方面取得進展，我們與客戶的討論仍在繼續。相對於我們之前的展望，我們預計 2022 年的淨投入成本只會小幅增加。

The stronger U.S. dollar relative to other currencies in which we operate, particularly the euro, continues to negatively impact our reported results. And there remains risk going forward that high inflation and rising interest rates will impact auto consumers. In terms of tailwinds, dealer vehicle inventories remained below historical levels. And to this point, underlying auto demand remains resilient and constrained by tight supply and global auto forecasters continue to expect increased light vehicle production in the coming years.

相對於我們經營的其他貨幣，尤其是歐元，美元走強繼續對我們報告的業績產生負面影響。未來仍存在高通脹和利率上升將影響汽車消費者的風險。在順風方面，經銷商車輛庫存仍低於歷史水平。到目前為止，潛在的汽車需求仍然具有彈性，並受到供應緊張的限制，全球汽車預測師繼續預計未來幾年輕型汽車產量將增加。

Now turning to our third quarter earnings. Relative to the third quarter of 2021, consolidated sales were $9.3 billion, up 17%. On an organic basis, sales were up 27% compared to a 24% increase in global light vehicle production, representing 3% weighted growth over market. This outgrowth includes the impacts of continuing customer recoveries. EBIT margin increased 190 basis points to 4.8%. Increased vehicle production was the largest positive factor.

現在轉向我們的第三季度收益。相對於 2021 年第三季度，綜合銷售額為 93 億美元，增長 17%。在有機基礎上，銷售額增長了 27%，而全球輕型汽車產量增長了 24%，佔市場加權增長率的 3%。這種結果包括持續客戶恢復的影響。息稅前利潤率增長 190 個基點至 4.8%。汽車產量增加是最大的利好因素。

Higher net input costs was the most significant offsetting factor in Q3. Our EBIT margin improved year-over-year in every operating segment. Our adjusted EPS rose 91% to $1.07 for the quarter, and our use of free cash flow was $210 million in Q3.

較高的淨投入成本是第三季度最重要的抵消因素。我們在每個運營部門的息稅前利潤率均同比提高。本季度調整後的每股收益增長 91% 至 1.07 美元，第三季度我們使用的自由現金流為 2.1 億美元。

During the quarter, we repurchased 3.1 million shares using $180 million in cash and paid out another $125 million to shareholders in the form of dividends. Pat will take you through the details of our revised '22 outlook later. Let me take you through the broad strokes. Compared to our previous outlook, we are reducing adjusted EBIT margin at the midpoint by about 30 basis points to a range of 4.8% to 5%, mainly related to 3 factors. We are experiencing a higher level of operating inefficiency in a few facilities.

在本季度，我們使用 1.8 億美元現金回購了 310 萬股股票，並以股息的形式向股東支付了另外 1.25 億美元。 Pat 稍後將帶您了解我們修訂後的 22 年展望的詳細信息。讓我帶你大致了解一下。與我們之前的展望相比，我們將調整後的息稅前利潤率中點下調約 30 個基點至 4.8% 至 5% 的範圍，主要與 3 個因素有關。我們在一些設施中遇到了更高水平的運營效率低下。

The EBIT impact from these operating inefficiencies is about 15 basis points. The most significant is the BES facility that we have highlighted last quarter. We have identified the issues and action plans are in place. We expect progress in improving the run rate of losses going forward. Our lower volume assumptions in North America and Europe resulted in lower sales and relative to our last outlook, we are seeing more disruption costs from production schedule changes. These are partially offset by a contribution on higher sales in China.

這些運營效率低下對息稅前利潤的影響約為 15 個基點。最重要的是我們上個季度強調的 BES 設施。我們已經確定了問題並製定了行動計劃。我們預計未來在改善虧損運行率方面會取得進展。我們在北美和歐洲的較低銷量假設導致銷售額下降，相對於我們上次的展望，我們看到生產計劃變化帶來的中斷成本增加。這些都被中國更高銷售額的貢獻所部分抵消。

Together, the volume, sales and schedule volatility impact is approximately 10 basis points. Lastly, there has been some movement in a couple of areas of our net input costs, but overall, we are expecting about $20 million in higher costs, which is essentially the impact of lower sales of scrap steel and aluminum compared to our previous outlook as a result of lower market prices. Despite bringing our outlook down, we still expect improved sequential earnings in Q4 relative to Q3, mainly reflecting lower net input costs, partially offset by higher engineering expense.

數量、銷售和進度波動的影響加在一起約為 10 個基點。最後，我們的淨投入成本的幾個方面出現了一些變化，但總體而言，我們預計成本將增加約 2000 萬美元，這主要是由於與我們之前的展望相比，廢鋼和鋁的銷售量下降，因為市場價格下跌的結果。儘管我們下調了展望，但我們仍預計第四季度的連續盈利將比第三季度有所改善，這主要反映了較低的淨投入成本，部分被較高的工程費用所抵消。

While we are tackling short-term industry challenges, we continue to take steps in our go-forward strategy. We are leveraging Magna's capabilities and platform technologies in areas such as 48-volt battery management, software stack and sensors to enter growing adjacent mobility markets such as micromobility. Our recent Yulu investment allows us to enter the world's largest growth market for 2-wheeled electrified mobility with India's largest 2-wheel electrified mobility as a service business and through both our collaboration with Cartken and our own internally developed robots we are addressing last-mile delivery.

在應對短期行業挑戰的同時，我們將繼續在我們的前進戰略中採取措施。我們正在利用麥格納在 48 伏電池管理、軟件堆棧和傳感器等領域的能力和平台技術，進入不斷增長的相鄰移動市場，如微移動。我們最近對 Yulu 的投資使我們能夠通過印度最大的兩輪電動出行即服務業務進入世界上最大的兩輪電動出行增長市場，並通過我們與 Cartken 的合作以及我們自己內部開發的機器人，我們正在解決最後一英里的問題送貨。

In the area of powertrain electrification, we are launching hybrid DCTs for Stellantis, starting with Jeep and Fiat models. Our agreement also includes additional future hybrid models for Europe. Our scalable hybrid technology is an important step in helping our customers electrify their fleet to improve fuel efficiency and performance and to meet regulatory requirements.

在動力總成電氣化領域，我們正在為 Stellantis 推出混合動力 DCT，從 Jeep 和 Fiat 車型開始。我們的協議還包括歐洲未來的其他混合動力車型。我們的可擴展混合動力技術是幫助客戶實現車隊電氣化以提高燃油效率和性能並滿足監管要求的重要一步。

To date, we have been awarded hybrid DCT business with 3 global OEMs, BMW, Mercedes and Stellantis. Earlier this year, we broke ground in our LG joint venture on a new facility in Mexico that will supply inverters, motors and onboard chargers. This is an important step in our ability to support our customers' powertrain electrification plans in North America.

迄今為止，我們已與 3 家全球 OEM、BMW、Mercedes 和 Stellantis 獲得混合動力 DCT 業務。今年早些時候，我們在墨西哥的 LG 合資企業破土動工，新工廠將提供逆變器、電機和車載充電器。這是我們支持北美客戶動力系統電氣化計劃的重要一步。

Lastly, we recently won another Automotive News PACE Award, our 6th such award in the past 8 years or a solution that offers real-time die adjustments during the stamping process. We are also awarded an Automotive News PACE pilot innovation to watch for a better-performing aluminum die-cast alloy used for structural applications. The innovation provides both a lower cost and lower carbon footprint. These awards recognize our efforts to drive innovation and technological advancements across Magna and very proud of our continued success here.

最後，我們最近贏得了另一個汽車新聞 PACE 獎，這是我們在過去 8 年中獲得的第 6 個此類獎項，或者是在沖壓過程中提供實時模具調整的解決方案。我們還獲得了汽車新聞 PACE 試點創新，以觀察用於結構應用的性能更好的鋁壓鑄合金。該創新提供了更低的成本和更低的碳足跡。這些獎項表彰了我們在麥格納推動創新和技術進步的努力，並為我們在這裡的持續成功感到自豪。

With that, I'll pass the call over to Pat.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給帕特。

Thanks, Swamy, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a detailed review of the quarter. Global vehicle production increased 24% in the quarter with all key markets up by a similar percentage. Our consolidated sales were $9.3 billion, up 17% from the third quarter of 2021. On an organic basis, our sales increased 27% year-over-year, representing a 3% weighted growth over market in the quarter. The increase was primarily due to higher global vehicle production, higher assembly volumes, the launch of new programs and price increases to recover certain higher input costs. These were partially offset by the negative impact of foreign currency translation, lower sales in Russia and customer price concessions.

謝謝，斯瓦米，大家早上好。我將從對該季度的詳細回顧開始。全球汽車產量在本季度增長了 24%，所有主要市場的增長幅度相似。我們的綜合銷售額為 93 億美元，比 2021 年第三季度增長 17%。在有機基礎上，我們的銷售額同比增長 27%，較本季度市場加權增長 3%。這一增長主要是由於全球汽車產量增加、裝配量增加、新項目的推出以及價格上漲以收回某些較高的投入成本。這些被外幣換算、俄羅斯銷售額下降和客戶價格優惠的負面影響部分抵消。

Adjusted EBIT was $441 million and adjusted EBIT margin increased 190 basis points to 4.8%, which compares to 2.9% in Q3 2021. The higher EBIT percent in the quarter reflects earnings on higher sales, commercial settlements, a $45 million provision on an engineering services contract with ever ground in Q3 2021, higher tooling contribution and divestitures of loss-making entities. These are partially offset by higher net input costs, operating inefficiencies at a facility in Europe, higher launch and net warranty costs and reduced earnings on lower sales at facilities in Russia.

調整後息稅前利潤為 4.41 億美元，調整後息稅前利潤率增長 190 個基點至 4.8%，而 2021 年第三季度為 2.9%。本季度較高的息稅前利潤百分比反映了銷售收入增加、商業結算、工程服務撥備 4500 萬美元在 2021 年第三季度與 Ever ground 簽訂合同，更高的工具貢獻和虧損實體的剝離。這些被較高的淨投入成本、歐洲工廠的運營效率低下、較高的啟動和淨保修成本以及俄羅斯工廠銷售額下降導致的收益減少部分抵消。

Equity income was down $7 million year-over-year to $27 million in the quarter. The decline reflects higher net input costs at certain equity-accounted entities and higher electrification spending in our LG JV to support new launches and additional growth, partially offset by earnings on higher sales at certain equity-accounted entities.

本季度股票收入同比下降 700 萬美元至 2700 萬美元。下降反映了某些權益核算實體的淨投入成本較高，以及我們的 LG 合資企業為支持新產品發布和額外增長而增加的電氣化支出，部分被某些權益核算實體較高的銷售額所抵消。

Our adjusted effective income tax rate came in at 25.5%. The higher rate compares to Q3 2021 was due to lower R&D credits and a change in the mix of earnings, partially offset by favorable changes in reserves for uncertain tax positions.

我們調整後的有效所得稅率為 25.5%。與 2021 年第三季度相比，較高的利率是由於較低的研發信貸和收入組合的變化，部分被不確定的稅收狀況的準備金的有利變化所抵消。

Net income attributable to Magna was $308 million, up $138 million compared to Q3 2021, reflecting higher EBIT and lower interest expense, partially offset by the higher income tax rate. Diluted EPS was $1.07 compared to $0.56 last year. Foreign exchange reduced our EPS by about 8% -- sorry, $0.08 per share.

歸屬於麥格納的淨收入為 3.08 億美元，與 2021 年第三季度相比增加了 1.38 億美元，這反映了更高的息稅前利潤和更低的利息費用，部分被更高的所得稅率所抵消。稀釋後每股收益為 1.07 美元，而去年為 0.56 美元。外匯使我們的每股收益減少了約 8%——抱歉，每股 0.08 美元。

I will now review our cash flows and investment activities. During the third quarter of 2022, we generated $591 million in cash from operations before changes in working capital and invested $353 million in working capital. Investment activities in the quarter included $364 million for fixed assets, a $125 million increase in investments, other assets and intangibles and $25 million for our investment in Yulu mobility. Overall, we used $210 million of free cash flow in Q3.

我現在將回顧我們的現金流和投資活動。在 2022 年第三季度，我們在營運資本變動之前從運營中產生了 5.91 億美元的現金，並在營運資本上投資了 3.53 億美元。本季度的投資活動包括固定資產 3.64 億美元，投資、其他資產和無形資產增加 1.25 億美元，以及我們對 Yulu 流動性的投資 2500 萬美元。總體而言，我們在第三季度使用了 2.1 億美元的自由現金流。

We also repurchased $180 million of our common shares and paid $125 million in dividends. At the end of the third quarter, our adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.39, and our liquidity remains strong at $4.6 billion, including $1.1 billion in cash.

我們還回購了 1.8 億美元的普通股並支付了 1.25 億美元的股息。在第三季度末，我們的調整後債務與調整後 EBITDA 之比為 1.39，我們的流動性仍然強勁，為 46 億美元，其中包括 11 億美元現金。

Next, I will cover our outlook. In North America and Europe, our most significant markets, we slightly reduced our vehicle production expectations from our previous outlook, and we increased our volumes in China. We assume exchange rates and our outlook will approximate recent rates. Given recent currency moves, we now expect a weaker euro, Canadian dollar and RMB for 2022 relative to our previous outlook. We have reduced and narrowed our expected ranges for segment and consolidated sales, largely reflecting lower volumes and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, in particular, relative to the euro.

接下來，我將介紹我們的前景。在我們最重要的市場北美和歐洲，我們從之前的展望中略微下調了汽車產量預期，並增加了在中國的銷量。我們假設匯率和我們的展望將接近近期匯率。鑑於最近的貨幣走勢，我們現在預計 2022 年歐元、加元和人民幣將相對於我們之前的展望走弱。我們已經減少並縮小了我們對細分市場和綜合銷售的預期範圍，主要反映了銷量下降和美元走強，特別是相對於歐元而言。

As Swamy indicated earlier, we reduced and narrowed our EBIT margin expectations. We now expect a margin range of 4.8% to 5% compared to 5% to 5.4% previously. We slightly raised and narrowed our equity income expectations. Our expectation for net income attributable to Magna has been reduced and narrowed largely to reflect lower sales and lower adjusted EBIT margin and we lowered our expectations for capital spending this year.

正如斯瓦米早些時候所說，我們降低並縮小了息稅前利潤率預期。我們現在預計利潤率範圍為 4.8% 至 5%，而之前為 5% 至 5.4%。我們略微上調和收窄了我們的股票收入預期。我們對歸屬於麥格納的淨利潤的預期已經降低和收窄，主要是因為銷售額下降和調整後息稅前利潤率下降，我們下調了對今年資本支出的預期。

Lastly, we reduced our free cash flow projections to the range of $400 million to $600 million. This mainly reflects expected lower earnings and higher working capital, partially offset by lower capital spending. With respect to higher working capital, we have been carrying increased levels of safety stock, given ongoing supply chain volatility. We had expected that to decline by year-end. We are now assuming to remain above normal levels through the end of 2022. The higher working capital also reflects a change in timing of tooling collections.

最後，我們將自由現金流預測下調至 4 億至 6 億美元。這主要反映了預期的較低收益和較高的營運資本，部分被較低的資本支出所抵消。關於更高的營運資金，鑑於供應鏈的持續波動，我們一直在增加安全庫存水平。我們曾預計到年底會下降。我們現在假設到 2022 年底將保持在正常水平之上。較高的營運資金也反映了工具收集時間的變化。

In summary, our third quarter results were improved over both last year and last quarter, although we had expected a little bit better. We anticipate further sequential earnings improvement in the fourth quarter. We continue to focus on making improvements in our unperforming operations, managing our costs and obtaining customer recoveries to help address the current challenges and we are making ongoing progress in our go-forward strategy.

總而言之，我們第三季度的業績比去年和上一季度都有所改善，儘管我們預計會好一些。我們預計第四季度的盈利將進一步連續改善。我們將繼續專注於改善我們表現不佳的運營、管理我們的成本和獲得客戶回收以幫助應對當前的挑戰，我們正在我們的前進戰略中不斷取得進展。

Thanks for your attention this morning. We would be happy to answer your questions.

感謝您今天早上的關注。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from John Murphy, Bank of America.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

Just a first question on the implied guide for the fourth quarter. I think at the midpoint of the range, the revenue was like $9.6 billion and the adjusted EBIT is about $550 million. So a marked improvement sequentially from the third quarter and a pretty significant improvement in profitability. Just wondering what the key factors are sequentially that are driving that because I mean it also looks like -- I mean, it's about $110 million improvement in EBIT sequentially and only $360 million improvement in revenues sort of at the midpoint. So it implies sort of some big incrementals as well.

只是關於第四季度隱含指南的第一個問題。我認為在該範圍的中點，收入約為 96 億美元，調整後的息稅前利潤約為 5.5 億美元。因此，與第三季度相比有顯著改善，盈利能力也有相當顯著的改善。只是想知道推動這一趨勢的關鍵因素是什麼，因為我的意思是它看起來也像 - 我的意思是，EBIT 環比增長約 1.1 億美元，而收入僅增長 3.6 億美元，處於中點。所以它也暗示了一些大的增量。

John, thanks for the question. So looking from Q3 to Q4, we provide a range. And if you look at the midpoint, I think roughly where you're looking that math makes sense. Big picture, when we had sales, we're seeing increased volumes from Q3 into Q4, but we're also expecting higher recoveries as we progress through the year. A good portion of that is booked through revenues as well. And then the offset against that would be foreign exchange headwinds on translation. On the margin side, as you look at our progression of customer recoveries and our input costs on a net basis, we're expecting improvements in Q4 relative to Q3. And then there's some small puts and takes, primarily spending and timing of engineering and then D&A increasing just a normal course as programs launch. Those would be the big drivers, John?

約翰，謝謝你的問題。因此，從第三季度到第四季度，我們提供了一個範圍。如果你看看中點，我認為你在看的地方大致上數學是有道理的。從大局來看，當我們有銷售時，我們看到從第三季度到第四季度的銷量有所增加，但隨著我們全年的進展，我們也預計會有更高的回收率。其中很大一部分也通過收入入賬。然後抵消這一點將是翻譯方面的外匯逆風。在利潤率方面，當您查看我們的客戶恢復進展和我們的淨投入成本時，我們預計第四季度相對於第三季度會有所改善。然後是一些小的投入和投入，主要是工程的支出和時間安排，然後隨著項目的啟動，D&A 增加了正常的課程。那些將是大司機，約翰？

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a second question. The commercial sentiment seemed like they're reasonably material, certainly in the third quarter and the fourth quarter. Pat, can you kind of allude to or really detail whether they are relative to cost inflation or relative to some of the costs that you're incurring from volatility and schedules that the automakers seem to be playing ball with? And how we should think about those go forward? So maybe third quarter actual, what you're expecting for the fourth quarter actual, how much of that is in period? And what is it specifically for cost inflation or volatility in schedules as well?

好的。這很有幫助。然後只是第二個問題。商業情緒似乎相當重要，尤其是在第三季度和第四季度。帕特，您能否暗示或真正詳細說明它們是否與成本膨脹有關，或者與您因汽車製造商似乎在玩球的波動和時間表而產生的一些成本有關？以及我們應該如何看待這些前進？所以也許第三季度實際，你對第四季度實際的期望，有多少是在這個時期？特別是對於成本膨脹或時間表的波動性又是什麼？

When we're breaking out our commercial recoveries, John, we're speaking specifically not about customer recoveries related to input costs or production volatility. That's reflected in our 565 or 570 number that we've been guiding previously. When we talk about commercial recoveries, this is normal course recoveries that we would have every month, I would say. So there's ups and downs. It just happened this quarter that they tended to go in our favor, but it covers areas such as (inaudible) launch production schedules, program cancellations. So there's a whole list -- launch list of issues that go into that category, and they bounce around from quarter-to-quarter like we said in the discussions, they just went in our favor this quarter, but we don't forecast those in our numbers.

當我們打破我們的商業回收時，約翰，我們特別不是在談論與投入成本或生產波動相關的客戶回收。這反映在我們之前指導的 565 或 570 號碼中。當我們談論商業回收時，我會說這是我們每個月都會有的正常課程回收。所以有起有落。本季度剛剛發生，他們傾向於對我們有利，但它涵蓋了諸如（聽不清）發布生產計劃、計劃取消等領域。所以有一個完整的清單——發布該類別的問題清單，就像我們在討論中所說的那樣，它們從一個季度到另一個季度反彈，它們在本季度對我們有利，但我們不預測那些在我們的數字中。

Okay. And then just lastly, Swamy, philosophically, there used to be buffer stocks in the automotive value chain that used to sit on dealer lots as finished goods. That's now been worked down pretty dramatically. And this buffer stocks seem to be backing up into the suppliers like yourselves. I mean how long do you think you're going to maintain these buffer stocks? And I mean how consequential do you think this will be to 2023? Or is this something that will get worked out early in 2023 and you'll be back to pretty lean just-in-time inventory levels?

好的。最後，Swamy 從哲學上講，汽車價值鏈中曾經有緩衝庫存，它們曾經作為成品存放在經銷商的批次中。現在已經大大減少了。而這種緩衝庫存似乎正在像你們這樣的供應商中備份。我的意思是你認為你會維持這些緩衝庫存多久？我的意思是你認為這對 2023 年會有多大的影響？或者這是否會在 2023 年初得到解決，您將恢復到相當精益的即時庫存水平？

John, great question. I think one of the big impacts that we have is due to the start-stop and because of trying to keep the continuity to the customers, obviously, leads to inventories within our plants and having these buffer stocks. The volatility has not improved as much as we had thought it would in the second half of this year. Hopefully, it does. And I think that will make a difference for sure in 2023. But if you just look at the production versus the slack in the value stream down to the Tier N, I think, is going to determine how stable can production releases be and not just the release but being able to stick to the release I think, is going to make a difference. I believe it's going to start improving. But to get to a state of equilibrium, I think it's going to be a little bit beyond the first half of 2023 from what we see today.

約翰，好問題。我認為我們產生的重大影響之一是由於起停和試圖保持對客戶的連續性，顯然，導致我們工廠內的庫存和這些緩衝庫存。波動性並沒有像我們在今年下半年預期的那樣改善。希望確實如此。我認為這肯定會在 2023 年產生影響。但如果你只看生產與價值流中的鬆弛到 N 層，我認為，將確定生產發布的穩定性，而不僅僅是發布但能夠堅持發布我認為會有所作為。我相信它會開始好轉。但要達到平衡狀態，我認為從我們今天所看到的情況來看，這將比 2023 年上半年略長一些。

And I'm sorry, Swamy, just one follow-up on that. Will you know -- will you have an idea of this stability? Or is it just going to happen when it happens? I mean any guideposts you could look to.

我很抱歉，Swamy，只是對此進行了一次跟進。你知道嗎——你對這種穩定性有一個概念嗎？或者它只是在它發生時才會發生？我的意思是您可以查看的任何指南。

So John, I think typically, if you had asked me the question.

所以約翰，我認為通常，如果你問我這個問題。

It might give you a hard time -- a hard question.

這可能會給你帶來困難——一個很難的問題。

No, no, no, it's fine. If you had asked the question about 2 or 3 years ago, right, we would have said, we really had a decent view into 13 to 15 weeks out, right? We get releases from the customer 13 to 15 weeks out, but the issue has been the releases don't materialize when you come to it, right? The parts are not picked up or something changes and so on and so forth. That has been the issue. So get the release and hopefully, the release sticks, I think, is what we are hoping for starting next year.

不，不，不，沒關係。如果您在 2 或 3 年前問過這個問題，對，我們會說，我們真的對 13 到 15 週的未來有一個不錯的看法，對吧？我們會在 13 到 15 週後從客戶那裡得到版本，但問題是當你來的時候版本並沒有實現，對吧？零件沒有被拾起或發生變化等等。這就是問題所在。所以得到發布，希望發布堅持，我認為，是我們希望從明年開始的。

The next question comes from Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

I just had a follow-up on the working capital safety stock question. Thanks for the clarity on maybe taking beyond first half for equilibrium, but what is the quantum of working cap that we kind of have trapped in the system just so we kind of have an idea of what's in the bathtub and what could come out over time? My first question.

我剛剛對營運資金安全庫存問題進行了跟進。感謝您明確表示可能需要超過上半年才能達到平衡，但是我們在系統中捕獲的工作上限是多少，所以我們對浴缸裡有什麼以及隨著時間的推移會出現什麼有所了解?我的第一個問題。

Yes. Adam, I think when you look at the working capital, it's a bunch of things, obviously, right? And it changes from quarter-to-quarter a little bit and part of it is due to these buffers that we've been talking about. I think it's difficult to quantify exactly. Maybe we can look at year-to-year. At this point, I would -- I won't be very accurate, Adam, to quantify exactly how much of that working capital is due to buffers versus other things. I would attribute most of the change to the normal average working capital that we have versus what we're seeing now, definitely to the buffers and the safety stock.

是的。亞當，我認為當您查看營運資金時，很明顯，這是一堆東西，對嗎？它每季度都會發生一點變化，部分原因是我們一直在談論的這些緩衝區。我認為很難準確量化。也許我們可以逐年看看。在這一點上，我會 - 我不會非常準確，亞當，要準確量化有多少營運資金是由於緩衝而不是其他因素造成的。我將大部分變化歸因於我們擁有的正常平均營運資金與我們現在看到的相比，絕對是緩沖和安全庫存。

And Adam, if I could just -- sorry, just getting some data, we did hear your question. But when we look at the working capital, Swamy's talking, there's a couple of buckets to it. So there's a safety stock that Swamy was referring to specifically. And when we look at that quarter, if we look -- if you look at our average inventory turns where we expect things to be, that number is probably in the $200 million type range.

亞當，如果我可以 - 抱歉，剛剛獲得了一些數據，我們確實聽到了你的問題。但是當我們查看營運資金時，斯瓦米說，它有幾個桶。因此，斯瓦米特別提到了一種安全庫存。當我們看那個季度時，如果我們看 - 如果你看我們的平均庫存周轉率，我們預計會出現這種情況，這個數字可能在 2 億美元的範圍內。

When you -- the other piece that is driving working capital higher than expectations when we get to year-end is really, when you look at -- the way the industry works, our working capital, our receivables are pretty automatic once they get into the system if they get paid per the OEMs, TNCs. The one area where we can get slippage and where we're realizing it is the timing of your PPAP approval and your collections on tooling. So that's also driving some of the higher receivables we see at year-end. So if you think about the inventory, $200 million of safety stock in that range and then the balance would be primarily related to timing of tooling collections.

當你 - 當我們到年底時，另一個推動營運資金高於預期的因素實際上是，當你看時 - 行業的運作方式，我們的營運資金，我們的應收賬款一旦進入就非常自動化如果他們按原始設備製造商、跨國公司獲得報酬，則該系統。我們可能會出現滑點並且我們意識到滑點的一個領域是您的 PPAP 批准時間和您在工具上的集合。因此，這也推動了我們在年底看到的一些更高的應收賬款。因此，如果您考慮庫存，則該範圍內有 2 億美元的安全庫存，然後餘額將主要與工具收集的時間有關。

That's really helpful color. Just as a follow-up, we're heading into a global downturn, we're in some form of global downturn already. And as a supplier, you felt it on the production schedules for years, you've already been in a downturn in many ways. So are you seeing any signs right now that your OEM customers might be cutting back on some of the science projects, focusing on more of the proven moneymakers like internal combustion? I mean argument could be made that when everyone is generating all-time high margins and money is free, that you can kind of launch on this -- the big ESG campaigns and the expensive stuff and sell loss-making EVs and AVs and all that. And maybe that posture changes into a downturn. I don't know if you're seeing any indication of that yet on the forward look to your customers?

這顏色真的很有幫助。作為後續行動，我們正走向全球衰退，我們已經處於某種形式的全球衰退中。作為供應商，您多年來一直在生產計劃中感受到它，您已經在許多方面處於低迷狀態。那麼，您現在是否看到任何跡象表明您的 OEM 客戶可能會削減一些科學項目，而專注於更多經過驗證的賺錢機構，例如內燃機？我的意思是可以說，當每個人都在創造空前的高利潤並且資金是免費的時，你可以在此基礎上推出——大型 ESG 活動和昂貴的東西，並銷售虧損的電動汽車和自動駕駛汽車等等.也許這種姿勢會轉變為低迷。我不知道您是否看到任何跡象表明您對客戶的前瞻性？

Yes. Great question, Adam. I think when we look at the long-term planning, we usually are at the table talking about strategically 3 to 5 years out. And we've always talked about what is the sustainable plan when I say that long-term plan, taking into account the transition of the product from where we are over the next 10 years. We haven't significantly changed or seen a change in terms of their portfolio or program management. And obviously, we have an internal view also as we work on different call it platforms or product lines, an assessment of what we think, right, for the next 5, 10 years. But I wouldn't say there has been a drastic shift on any of the customer viewpoints as we have various discussions today.

是的。好問題，亞當。我認為，當我們著眼於長期規劃時，我們通常會在桌邊談論戰略性的 3 到 5 年。當我說長期計劃時，我們一直在談論什麼是可持續計劃，考慮到我們在未來 10 年的產品過渡。我們在他們的投資組合或項目管理方面沒有顯著變化或看到變化。顯然，當我們在不同的平台或產品線上工作時，我們也有一個內部觀點，這是對我們對未來 5 年、10 年的想法的評估。但我不會說任何客戶的觀點都發生了巨大的轉變，因為我們今天進行了各種討論。

The next question comes from Peter Sklar, BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Peter Sklar。

Pat, I'm just a little confused on what the net impact is of the not normal course commercial recoveries, but all these extraordinary inflationary impacts you're feeling on energy, rent, et cetera. So what is the impact in Q3? And what is the impact in Q4 when you look at that elevated level versus the commercial recoveries that you benefited from in Q3 as you negotiated reimbursement for those extraordinary costs? Is it net-net a positive or negative? I'm just trying to figure out where you're at.

帕特，我對不正常的商業復甦的淨影響有點困惑，但是你對能源、租金等的所有這些非同尋常的通貨膨脹影響。那麼第三季度的影響是什麼？當您看到較高的水平與您在第三季度協商補償這些特別費用時從中受益的商業復甦時，第四季度的影響是什麼？ net-net 是正面的還是負面的？我只是想弄清楚你在哪裡。

Peter, let me try and clear it up. So when you're thinking about -- so forget about the commercial piece, if we're talking specifically about our 565, we've talked about historically, we would have guided in the range of about 200 basis points in Q1 and 200 basis points in Q2. When we got into Q3, the number is coming down and the impact, the headwind year-over-year would be in the range of about 180 basis points. And that's primarily as we -- our launch year from last year is a little bit elevated, but we're also -- our recoveries were back-ended. So when you work through the math, basically, we're looking as we move into Q4 with a minimal amount of input cost headwinds on a year-over-year basis, Peter?

彼得，讓我試著清理一下。因此，當您考慮時，請忘記商業部分，如果我們專門談論我們的 565，我們在歷史上已經討論過，我們會在第一季度和 200 個基點的範圍內指導第二季度的積分。當我們進入第三季度時，這個數字正在下降，其影響，與去年同期相比，逆風將在約 180 個基點的範圍內。這主要是因為我們 - 我們的發布年份比去年有所提高，但我們也是 - 我們的複蘇是後端的。因此，當您進行數學計算時，基本上，我們正在尋找進入第四季度時，每年的投入成本逆風最小，彼得？

Okay. And then the 180 basis points since you're talking about the 565, that's a net number. That's elevated cost less recoveries. Correct?

好的。然後是 180 個基點，因為你說的是 565，這是一個淨數字。那是提高成本減少回收率。正確的？

Everything on a net basis, that's correct, Peter.

一切都基於網絡，這是正確的，彼得。

Yes. Okay. Next question. Could we have an update on management's thinking on how things could potentially unfold in Germany this winter, if there is an energy shortage? And if the German government was required to rush an industry I mean, how do you think that would play out? Do you think that they would curtail production of the auto industry in Germany?

是的。好的。下一個問題。如果出現能源短缺，我們能否了解管理層對今年冬天德國可能會如何發展的看法？如果要求德國政府推動一個行業，我的意思是，你認為這會如何發展？你認為他們會削減德國汽車工業的生產嗎？

Yes. I think as you can imagine, Peter, this is a little bit more societal than just the industry. And at least from the information that we see, the natural gas stocks seem to be ahead compared to the normal years. But you have to see the harshness of the winter and the rest of the stuff. But from our conversation, the industry in general is talking to the policymakers to safeguard as much as possible, but that is something to be seen. It's no different than any supply shortage. It only takes one component, right, in the entire supply chain to stop vehicle production.

是的。我想你可以想像，彼得，這不僅僅是行業，它更具有社會意義。至少從我們看到的信息來看，與正常年份相比，天然氣庫存似乎領先。但是你必須看到冬天的嚴酷和其他的東西。但從我們的談話來看，整個行業都在與政策制定者交談，以盡可能地保護，但這是有待觀察的。這與任何供應短缺沒有什麼不同。在整個供應鏈中只需要一個組件就可以停止汽車生產。

I think we are part of all these conversations with OEMs and policymakers to stay at the table to understand it. Other than being remaining agile to address that as it comes along, there is not a whole lot that we can do from our side other than production planning to the extent possible.

我認為我們是與原始設備製造商和政策制定者進行所有這些對話的一部分，以便留在談判桌上以了解它。除了保持敏捷來解決這個問題之外，除了盡可能地進行生產計劃之外，我們無法從我們這邊做很多事情。

And just my last question, the -- in your discussion on the downward revision to the margin guidance, the 30 basis points due to plant inefficiencies, if I do my math correctly, that's about a loss of $27 million in the quarter. I think you touched on it last quarter, but do you mind reviewing this plant in Europe that's incurring most of the loss, what it does and what the issue is there?

就我的最後一個問題，在你關於下調利潤率指導的討論中，由於工廠效率低下而導致的 30 個基點，如果我的數學計算正確的話，這個季度大約損失了 2700 萬美元。我想你在上個季度談到了它，但你介意回顧一下這家在歐洲造成大部分損失的工廠，它做了什麼以及存在什麼問題？

Yes. Peter, I think just a correction, Pat, I think it's 15 basis points, right? And you're right, Peter, most part of it is in one facility, as you mentioned in Europe. If you just step back and look at it, we had a capacity constrained. There was a change -- a little bit of a change in the program kind of put the facility over the cliff in terms of the capacity constraints and therefore, had to do some outsourcing of parts both to internal Magna divisions and external.

是的。彼得，我認為只是一個修正，帕特，我認為是 15 個基點，對吧？你是對的，彼得，正如你在歐洲提到的，大部分都在一個設施中。如果您退後一步看一下，我們的容量就會受到限制。發生了變化——計劃的一點點變化使設施在產能限制方面處於懸崖邊，因此，不得不將一些零件外包給麥格納內部和外部部門。

As you can imagine, when you're shipping parts there is premium associated with it. And that is what has caused the issue that we are talking about. The issues have definitely been identified and there is an action plan in place clearly. As you can imagine, to rebalance the capacity, which will reduce the premium cost, it takes time.

正如您可以想像的那樣，當您運送零件時，會有與之相關的溢價。這就是導致我們正在討論的問題的原因。這些問題肯定已經確定，並且有明確的行動計劃。可以想像，要重新平衡容量，從而降低溢價成本，需要時間。

So the plan is in place. We understand the issue. Now it's just a matter of executing to that and bringing back capacity in an orderly way at reduced premium costs. I think that's what I meant when I talked about reducing glasses and improving run rates going forward.

所以計劃已經到位。我們理解這個問題。現在只需執行此操作並以降低的溢價成本以有序的方式恢復產能。當我談到減少眼鏡和提高跑步率時，我想這就是我的意思。

The next question comes from Chris McNally, Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

So just a real quick one because I think the comments around Q4 were pretty important. So in the old framework, I think of the $560 million net, it was $400 million on an absolute basis in first half, $160 million implied in the second half. And I think the comments were that Q4 would almost be neutral. Does that mean that there's a chance that maybe by the first half of the year given the normal pace of the conversations that we could have a tailwind from this noncommercial recovery inflationary bucket?

所以只是一個真正快速的，因為我認為第四季度的評論非常重要。所以在舊框架中，我認為淨額為 5.6 億美元，上半年絕對值為 4 億美元，下半年隱含 1.6 億美元。我認為評論是第四季度幾乎是中立的。這是否意味著，鑑於對話的正常步伐，我們有可能在今年上半年從這個非商業復甦通脹桶中獲得順風？

Chris, so your math is bang on. So when you look at $200 million, $200 million, the $160 million brings us to the $560 million all in. So there's a little bit of leakage year-over-year when we get into Q4. I think when we get into headwinds and tailwinds for 2023, we are in the middle of working through our business planning process. And as you can imagine, the number of moving parts this year given inflation and energy, it's been an incredible process trying to work through it.

克里斯，所以你的數學很成功。因此，當您查看 2 億美元、2 億美元時，1.6 億美元將我們帶到了 5.6 億美元的全部收入。所以當我們進入第四季度時，與去年同期相比有一點洩漏。我認為，當我們進入 2023 年的逆風和順風時，我們正在完成我們的業務規劃流程。正如你可以想像的那樣，考慮到通貨膨脹和能源，今年活動部件的數量，這是一個令人難以置信的過程，試圖解決它。

If you remember, Chris, if you go back to our guidance from February of last year, we did break down inflation into a couple of buckets and we bucketed them basically between sticky inflation, primarily labor and then non-sticky inflation being commodities and since that time, energy as well. So when I think about a headwind, I don't think we're going to have a tailwind on labor, for sure. I think labor is a sticky type of scenario. We're going to work on automation projects and bringing efficiencies into the plants to negate those costs headwinds.

如果你還記得，克里斯，如果你回到我們去年 2 月的指導，我們確實將通貨膨脹分為幾個桶，我們基本上將它們分為粘性通脹，主要是勞動力，然後是非粘性通脹是商品，因為那個時候，精力也是。因此，當我想到逆風時，我認為我們肯定不會對勞動力產生順風。我認為勞動是一種棘手的情況。我們將致力於自動化項目並提高工廠的效率，以消除這些成本逆風。

When you think about the other bucket, primarily energy, it's really going to be dependent on what Swamy talked about earlier, whether it's rationing or one-off. That's one piece of it. But looking again just at the energy curves in Europe and where we settle, that's really going to be the big driver of how '23 shakes out. And then on top of all that, what we can recover as far as customer expectations? Sorry for the long answer.

當您考慮另一個桶時，主要是能源，它實際上將取決於斯瓦米之前談到的內容，無論是配給還是一次性。這是其中的一部分。但是再看看歐洲的能源曲線和我們定居的地方，這真的將成為 23 年如何擺脫的主要驅動力。然後最重要的是，就客戶期望而言，我們可以恢復什麼？對不起，答案很長。

No, it's very helpful. And then maybe a second on Steyr and a lot of the interesting things going on in obviously Autotech and the IRA, just sort of a 2-part question. Maybe an update or a reminder, discussed launching in the first half of next year. How does it work in terms of either cost overruns or the launch cadence, does Steyr take a little bit of a margin hit as you launched the program with them, just remind us how costs are shared. And then a bigger picture, Swamy, I'm sorry, I always ask this, but it sounds like there's the potential for a bigger move in Steyr in North America, it makes even more sense with everything domestic for IRA. So just any updates that you can share there on Steyr.

不，這很有幫助。然後可能是關於 Steyr 的一秒鐘，以及顯然 Autotech 和 IRA 中發生的許多有趣的事情，只是一個由兩部分組成的問題。也許是更新或提醒，討論在明年上半年推出。就成本超支或發布節奏而言，它是如何運作的，當您與他們一起啟動該計劃時，斯太爾是否會受到一點利潤衝擊，只是提醒我們如何分攤成本。然後是更大的圖景，斯瓦米，對不起，我總是問這個問題，但聽起來北美斯太爾有可能採取更大的行動，這對愛爾蘭共和軍來說更有意義。因此，您可以在 Steyr 上分享任何更新。

So I think from a perspective, the North American footprint, we've always said that, and I think the answer still remains if there is an appropriate business case, we are very open for the footprint in North America. There is obviously various discussions on the topic, and they continue. As we've always said, we have remained very disciplined to say. It has to make sense in the long run. On the other part, Honestly, I don't think it's right on our part to talk about cadence of launches and so on, we would leave that to the customer and let them talk through it. We have so many launches that we do with various customers. We don't comment on it and we would -- it will be not in the right place for us to talk about a customer cadence and launch here.

所以我認為從一個角度來看，北美足跡，我們一直這麼說，我認為如果有合適的商業案例，答案仍然存在，我們對北美的足跡非常開放。顯然有關於這個話題的各種討論，而且還在繼續。正如我們一直說的那樣，我們一直非常自律。從長遠來看，它必須有意義。另一方面，老實說，我認為我們談論發布的節奏等等是不對的，我們會把它留給客戶，讓他們討論。我們與不同的客戶進行瞭如此多的發布。我們不會對此發表評論，我們會 - 我們不適合在這裡談論客戶節奏和發布。

And maybe Swamy, I forget about the specific case, just typically in a launch year for a new program, is there an investment period on Magna's part where the -- if I think about BMW historically, where Steyr margins would get?

也許斯瓦米（Swamy），我忘記了具體案例，通常是在新項目的啟動年，麥格納是否有一個投資期——如果我從歷史上考慮寶馬，斯太爾的利潤會在哪裡？

I would say that, obviously, it depends very much on the ramp curve and the launch and it differs from customer to customer. How they get their milestones is going to drive that. But usually, right, we take that into account as we are going through the planning process. And to the extent when their plan changes, obviously, because of programs, the maturity and so on and so forth, that is what Pat talked about how the launch there is puts and takes from one quarter to the other, depending on customers and programs. It's very difficult to say it is a one particular cadence every time during the launch. I mean, we see, in some cases, there is more. In some cases, I think it just sticks to the plan exactly. So it's difficult to quantify, I'm not trying to go around, but I wish I could give you a more concrete answer.

我會說，顯然，它在很大程度上取決於斜坡曲線和發布，並且因客戶而異。他們如何獲得里程碑將推動這一點。但通常，是的，我們在進行規劃過程時會考慮到這一點。當他們的計劃發生變化時，顯然，由於程序、成熟度等等等等，這就是 Pat 談到的發布是如何從一個季度到另一個季度的，這取決於客戶和程序.很難說每次發布都是一個特定的節奏。我的意思是，我們看到，在某些情況下，還有更多。在某些情況下，我認為它完全符合計劃。所以很難量化，我不是想繞開，但我希望我能給你一個更具體的答案。

The next question comes from Joseph Spak, RBC CM.

下一個問題來自 RBC CM Joseph Spak。

Maybe just -- I know -- I think to John's first question, you talked a little bit about some of the factors here for the fourth quarter. If we single in specifically on BES and Power & Vision, where it seems like there's some larger quarter-over-quarter margin assumptions, it's almost like 190 basis points in BES and 150 in Power & Vision. I think BES, you sort of talked about, right, some of the efficiency improvements in Europe. I was wondering if you could help us help quantify maybe how much of that sequential improvement is there and what's driving the rest. And then what's driving the improvement in Power & Vision quarter-over-quarter?

也許只是——我知道——我想約翰的第一個問題，你談到了第四季度的一些因素。如果我們特別關注 BES 和 Power & Vision，似乎有一些更大的季度環比利潤率假設，它幾乎就像 BES 的 190 個基點和 Power & Vision 的 150 個基點。我認為 BES，你談到了，對，歐洲的一些效率改進。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們量化可能有多少連續改進，以及是什麼推動了其餘的改進。那麼是什麼推動了 Power & Vision 季度環比的改善？

Joe, we'll have to look at that. I don't -- sequentially, I don't have a good handle on looking at it by segment, I think.

喬，我們得看看那個。我沒有——我認為，我沒有很好地按順序查看它。

Sorry, Joe, when you look at a couple of big items, if you are focusing on Q3, there is -- we did have the unusual warranty charge in the P&V group, which will -- it's obviously it's a onetime in nature. So that's one of the big drivers. When you look as well as far as customer recoveries, those 2 big groups do drive a disproportionate amount of the change in headwinds, just given the -- how they're heavy industrial groups. So that's another piece of it. And so those are the 2 big of top of my head issues. But as Louis said, we have the detail, we'll just have to put it into a tight package for you.

抱歉，喬，當您查看幾個大項目時，如果您專注於第三季度，我們確實在 P&V 集團中收取了不尋常的保修費用，這顯然是一次性的。所以這是主要的驅動因素之一。從客戶恢復的角度來看，這兩個大集團確實推動了不成比例的逆風變化，只是考慮到它們是重工業集團。所以這是另一部分。所以這些是我最關心的兩大問題。但正如路易斯所說，我們有詳細信息，我們只需為您將其放入一個緊湊的包裝中。

We can follow-up. We can follow-up. I guess, maybe just one sort of quick one. You pointed to FX. Obviously, we could all sort of see that on our screens. I mean it seems like at current spot, that could be like maybe like $1.3 billion, $1.4 billion sort of top line hit to you next year. I was wondering if you could -- if you sort of -- if you think that sort of ballpark correct? And then just at the EBIT level, remind us, I think it's mostly translation, but is there also some transaction exposure you have within Europe or anything?

我們可以跟進。我們可以跟進。我想，也許只是一種快速的。你指的是外匯。顯然，我們都可以在屏幕上看到這一點。我的意思是，在目前的情況下，明年可能會達到 13 億美元，14 億美元的收入。我想知道你是否可以——如果你有點——如果你認為這種情況是正確的？然後就息稅前利潤而言，提醒我們，我認為主要是翻譯，但您在歐洲或其他地區是否也有一些交易風險？

And my recollection, Joe, from past about a $0.01 change in euro-U.S. dollar is about $150 million annually. So it is pretty significant. Canadian dollar U.S. less significant, but it's probably per $60 million per $0.01 change. So depending on what assumptions you're making there, the number is going to be pretty big.

我的回憶，喬，過去大約 0.01 美元的歐元兌美元匯率變化。美元每年約為 1.5 億美元。所以意義重大。加元 美元 不那麼重要，但可能是每 0.01 美元變化每 6000 萬美元。因此，根據您在那裡所做的假設，這個數字將會非常大。

Yes. Okay.

是的。好的。

Sorry, Joe, on the second part of your question, you're correct. It's primarily translation impact. We do have a mature foreign exchange hedging process at Magna, which negates the majority of the transactional impacts.

對不起，喬，關於你問題的第二部分，你是對的。它主要是翻譯影響。我們在麥格納確實擁有成熟的外匯對沖流程，這抵消了大部分交易影響。

Okay. And Swamy, I guess just a very big picture. I know you don't update the '24 targets you have, but at a very high level and no one sort of has a crystal ball on production. I just want to really understand, like if we do get back to the volume levels you assumed when you issued those targets, do you think that is still attainable? Or has something else happened since then that sort of structurally change that view? I guess, differently, like, is it really just sort of volume that's the key driver to sensitize what we should assume for '24 margin targets?

好的。 Swamy，我想這只是一個非常大的畫面。我知道你沒有更新你擁有的 '24 目標，但在一個非常高的水平上，沒有人在生產中擁有水晶球。我只是想真正理解一下，如果我們確實回到了你發布這些目標時假設的音量水平，你認為這仍然可以實現嗎？還是從那以後發生了其他事情，從結構上改變了這種觀點？我想，不同的是，它真的只是某種數量的關鍵驅動因素，讓我們對 24 年保證金目標的假設變得敏感嗎？

So Joe, I think it's a good question. I think if you just fundamentally look at our operations and our plan, I would say it's very sound. Like you said, the key things are, one is volume. And in my previous comments I did mention is also equally important is the inefficiencies that are caused due to this start-stop in production. I would say those from an operational perspective and to be very transparent, we have to address the underperformance that I talked about.

所以喬，我認為這是一個很好的問題。我認為，如果您從根本上看我們的運營和計劃，我會說這非常合理。就像你說的，關鍵是，一個是音量。在我之前的評論中，我確實提到同樣重要的是由於生產中的這種啟動停止而導致的效率低下。我會從運營的角度說這些，並且要非常透明，我們必須解決我談到的表現不佳的問題。

Other than that, if you look at the foundational part of it, I think we feel pretty good. The input costs and the inflation stickiness that Pat talked about is obviously going to have an impact on how we do and what we do. In short, I think if the extraneous events are not volatile and are not changing significantly, then I would say the margins that we have talked about are very reachable. So there is not an underlying that puts a question mark. We feel pretty confident, but we've got to address all these market conditions that we're going through right now.

除此之外，如果你看看它的基礎部分，我認為我們感覺很好。 Pat 談到的投入成本和通脹粘性顯然會對我們的工作方式和工作方式產生影響。簡而言之，我認為如果無關事件不是不穩定的並且沒有顯著變化，那麼我會說我們已經討論過的利潤是非常容易達到的。因此，不存在打上問號的底層證券。我們感到非常有信心，但我們必須解決我們現在正在經歷的所有這些市場條件。

The next question comes from Colin Langan of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Just to clarify, I mean, what is the light vehicle production assumption when we're looking quarter-over-quarter? Because your growth, I think, at the midpoint is something like 4%. I know a lot of suppliers are talking more flattish. I mean is that sort of 4%?

只是為了澄清，我的意思是，當我們查看季度環比時，輕型汽車生產假設是什麼？因為你的增長，我認為，在中點大約是 4%。我知道很多供應商說得更平淡。我是說那是4%？

You talk about global Q4?

你說的是全球Q4？

Yes. Just overall, Global Q4 what your kind of baseline is?

是的。總的來說，全球第四季度你的基線是什麼？

I can tell you -- so our assumption for the full year, so year-over-year is about plus 2%, which I think is pretty much in line with maybe even a little conservative about IHS. That's where we are, full year globally.

我可以告訴你——所以我們對全年的假設，即同比增長約 2%，我認為這與 IHS 的保守程度幾乎一致。這就是我們所在的地方，全球全年。

Okay. All right. And if I look at the Q4 sort of implied rate, margins sort of jumped to like 5, 7-ish at that point. How should we think of it? Is that the right launch sort of rate as we look into 2023? Or are there some seasonality or any maybe retroactive recoveries that are impacting that sort of exit rate?

好的。好的。如果我看一下第四季度的隱含利率，當時的利潤率會跳到 5、7 左右。我們應該如何看待它？當我們展望 2023 年時，這是正確的發射率嗎？或者是否存在影響這種退出率的季節性因素或任何可能的追溯性恢復？

Yes. I think all of the above apply, Colin. Like I said earlier, we're really in the middle of a budget cycle here that we're kicking off. We are going to come to the market in February with our Q4 results given that guidance. It wouldn't be fair for us to give a number at this point because what we're really trying to see is where we're going to land.

是的。我認為以上所有內容都適用，科林。就像我之前說的，我們真的處於我們正在啟動的預算週期的中間。鑑於該指導，我們將於 2 月帶著我們的第四季度業績進入市場。在這一點上給出一個數字對我們來說是不公平的，因為我們真正想要看到的是我們將要降落的地方。

Okay. And just lastly, any retroactive recoveries in the Q3 and Q4 results that we should be thinking about?

好的。最後，我們應該考慮在第三季度和第四季度的結果中是否有任何追溯性恢復？

Yes. So there are. If you think about the cadence of our headwinds on our net input cost of the 565 that we had guided earlier, it gives you a perspective that they were front-loaded. And part of that benefit in the second half of the year and part of it was just the year-over-year impact on the cost side of it. But the other piece of it is we are -- some of our recoveries are geared towards the back half of the year and a portion of that would relate to the first half.

是的。所以有。如果您考慮一下我們之前指導的 565 淨投入成本的逆風節奏，它會讓您認為它們是前置的。下半年的部分收益和部分只是對成本方面的同比影響。但另一部分是我們——我們的一些復甦是針對今年下半年的，其中一部分與上半年有關。

But we have broken it down, so we haven't met that detail.

但是我們已經把它分解了，所以我們還沒有遇到那個細節。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Michael Glen at Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Michael Glen。

I just want to dig into the Europe Energy situation just a little bit more. So if we look back earlier this year, you guys had increased that cost guidance based on energy prices in Europe. And if you look at the way energy prices in Europe trended in front half of the year versus what we saw in Q3, in particular, you had some pretty significant escalation take place in the Europe energy market, but it doesn't feel like you guys saw much pressure from that. I'm just trying to understand how -- when we're looking at the spot market for natural gas, how we should think about that translating or impacting your results?

我只是想深入了解一下歐洲能源的情況。因此，如果我們回顧今年早些時候，你們已經根據歐洲的能源價格提高了成本指導。如果你看一下歐洲能源價格在今年上半年的走勢與我們在第三季度看到的情況，特別是，你在歐洲能源市場上發生了一些相當顯著的升級，但感覺不像你伙計們從中看到了很大的壓力。我只是想了解——當我們關注天然氣現貨市場時，我們應該如何看待轉化或影響你的結果？

Maybe I'll start, Pat, you can add. I think if you look at the energy cost, both the gross costs were higher and also expected recoveries were higher. But overall, I should say, the net cost for us are higher. Obviously, we can -- the discussions with the OEM are, I think they understand the issue, right, as we have some of these discussions. You can give a bit details obviously with the granularity of the discussions in each case, I would say that that's the key point, Pat?

也許我會開始，帕特，你可以添加。我認為如果你看一下能源成本，總成本和預期回收率都更高。但總的來說，我應該說，我們的淨成本更高。顯然，我們可以 - 與 OEM 的討論是，我認為他們理解這個問題，對，因為我們有一些討論。您可以在每種情況下的討論粒度上提供一些細節，我會說這是關鍵點，帕特？

Great. And I think the other thing, Mike, you have to think through as well as we do have hedging on energy to protect or lock in our secure supply related to that. So it's not -- we're just not looking at the 30-day forward curve and our numbers are moving up and down. The majority is what Swamy talked about that we're in to the customers, like most of our competitors on energy because it's such a significant impact. That's the first piece. And it spiked in Q3 for a short period of time. And if you look at the curves today, they're back down to March levels. So I think the market is really bouncing around, but we're tracking it and managing it with the customers.

偉大的。我認為另一件事，邁克，你必須仔細考慮，就像我們對能源進行對沖一樣，以保護或鎖定與此相關的安全供應。所以不是——我們只是沒有關注 30 天的遠期曲線，我們的數字在上下波動。大多數是斯瓦米所說的，我們對客戶的態度，就像我們在能源方面的大多數競爭對手一樣，因為它產生瞭如此重大的影響。這是第一塊。它在第三季度短暫飆升。如果你看今天的曲線，它們又回到了三月份的水平。所以我認為市場確實在反彈，但我們正在跟踪它並與客戶一起管理它。

So at this point, would you say then that energy is now largely on pass-through with customers? Has that now been embedded into your arrangements?

所以在這一點上，你會說現在能源主要是通過客戶傳遞嗎？現在是否已將其嵌入到您的安排中？

I think when -- so part of this, Mike, I think we're in a situation where in our main markets, we've operated in a virtually 0 inflation environment. Some of our other markets, whether it's in Brazil or Turkey or some of these evolving markets, we've had success in passing these costs through. So we're lifting that model and using it in our more traditional areas. On a go-forward basis, when you think about energy or anything else, we can derisk our quotes on. That's one thing we have done to move the economics into it. When you think about what Swamy's talking about, we're talking specifically going in with raw data, factual, a good portion of the cost. That's not just our utility bill. Those are surcharges coming through suppliers and some of those suppliers are direct suppliers. So we are going through with facts, with data fully transparent and having a discussion with them. And Mike, if you remember, we spoke earlier, it's an industry issue. It's not a Magna issue, and we've had more success when it's more of a broad industry issue.

我認為，邁克，這是其中的一部分，我認為我們的主要市場處於通脹幾乎為零的環境中。我們的其他一些市場，無論是巴西、土耳其還是其中一些不斷發展的市場，我們都成功地將這些成本轉嫁出去。因此，我們正在提升該模型並將其用於我們更傳統的領域。在前進的基礎上，當您考慮能源或其他任何事情時，我們可以取消我們的報價。這是我們為將經濟學納入其中所做的一件事。當您考慮 Swamy 所說的內容時，我們正在專門討論原始數據，事實，成本的很大一部分。這不僅僅是我們的水電費賬單。這些是通過供應商收取的附加費，其中一些供應商是直接供應商。因此，我們正在處理事實，數據完全透明並與他們進行討論。邁克，如果你記得，我們之前說過，這是一個行業問題。這不是麥格納的問題，當它是一個更廣泛的行業問題時，我們取得了更大的成功。

Okay. That's good information. And then finally, just in terms of what you're thinking about from a technology investment standpoint, you've shown appetite to invest in some early technology ventures over time. I'm just wondering, is there anything on the battery side, battery materials, battery technology. I know you produce the battery trays, but is there any appetite for you to step in and get involved in the battery in any significant way?

好的。這是很好的信息。最後，就您從技術投資的角度考慮的問題而言，隨著時間的推移，您已經表現出投資一些早期技術企業的興趣。我只是想知道，電池方面有什麼，電池材料，電池技術。我知道您生產電池托盤，但是您是否有興趣介入並以任何重要的方式參與電池？

So I think the -- I guess the appetite or our direction in investing in some of the technologies has always been very thoughtful. We have a road map in terms of where our technology and our products sit today and how we see them evolving given how the vehicle of the future is evolving. So it's very well thought through how we're doing what we do, and we are following that process.

所以我認為——我猜我們對某些技術投資的胃口或方向一直是非常周到的。我們有一張路線圖，說明我們的技術和產品今天所處的位置，以及考慮到未來車輛的發展方式，我們如何看待它們的發展。因此，我們對我們如何做我們所做的事情進行了深思熟慮，並且我們正在遵循這個過程。

On the specific topic on the batteries, I think as we sit back and look at it from a system perspective, as you said, we make the battery enclosures, but there is enough tank which gives us a front-row seat of understanding how the thermal management is done, how the controls from a battery management perspective. If you look at our LG joint venture, what we do there in terms of the onboard chargers and so on and so forth. I think from that perspective, we are focused on figuring out where can we play a role in the ecosystem. But I would say sales at the cell level is not something that we are currently looking at.

關於電池的具體話題，我認為當我們坐下來從系統的角度看待它時，正如你所說，我們製造了電池外殼，但是有足夠的水箱讓我們坐在前排了解電池如何熱管理完成後，如何從電池管理的角度進行控制。如果你看看我們的 LG 合資企業，我們會在車載充電器等方面做些什麼。我認為從這個角度來看，我們專注於弄清楚我們可以在生態系統中的哪些方面發揮作用。但我想說的是，我們目前正在關注的不是單元級別的銷售。

That was our final question. I'll turn the call back over to Swamy Kotagiri for any closing remarks.

那是我們的最後一個問題。我會將電話轉回給 Swamy Kotagiri 以獲取任何結束語。

Thanks, everyone, for listening in. We are obviously still facing a challenging industry environment. We remain focused on working with our customers to address cost inflation. And equally important, we are focused on addressing our underperforming operations. Thank you. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝大家的聆聽。我們顯然仍然面臨著充滿挑戰的行業環境。我們仍然專注於與客戶合作解決成本膨脹問題。同樣重要的是，我們專注於解決我們表現不佳的業務。謝謝你。享受你一天的剩餘時間。

Thank you. This does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Thank you, and have a good day.

謝謝你。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝您的參與，並要求您斷開線路。謝謝你，有一個美好的一天。