Magna International Inc (MGA) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Q4 and year-end 2021 results and 2022 outlook. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded, Friday, February 11, 2022. Now I would like to turn the conference over to Louis Tonelli, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

問候，歡迎來到 2021 年第四季度和年終業績以及 2022 年展望。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的電話正在錄音，時間為 2022 年 2 月 11 日星期五。現在我想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Louis Tonelli。請繼續。

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to our conference call covering our '21 results and our 2022 outlook. Joining me today are Swamy Kotagiri, Vince Galifi and Pat McCann. Yesterday, our Board of Directors met and approved our financial results for 2021 as well as our financial outlook. We issued a press release this morning outlining each of these.

謝謝你。大家好，歡迎參加我們的電話會議，討論我們的 21 年業績和 2022 年展望。今天加入我的還有 Swamy Kotagiri、Vince Galifi 和 Pat McCann。昨天，我們的董事會開會並批准了我們 2021 年的財務業績以及我們的財務展望。我們今天早上發布了一份新聞稿，概述了其中的每一項。

You'll find the press release, today's conference call webcast, the slides presentation go along with the call and our updated quarterly financial review all in the Investor Relations section of our website at magna.com.

您可以在我們網站 magna.com 的投資者關係部分找到新聞稿、今天的電話會議網絡直播、電話會議中的幻燈片演示以及我們更新的季度財務回顧。

Just before we get started, this is a reminder, the discussion today may contain forward-looking information or forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Such statements involve certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties which may cause the company's actual or future results and performance to be materially different from those expressed or implied in these statements. Please refer to today's press release for a complete description of our safe harbor disclaimer. Please also refer to the reminder slide included in our deck today related to our commentary.

在我們開始之前，提醒一下，今天的討論可能包含適用證券立法含義內的前瞻性信息或前瞻性陳述。此類陳述涉及某些風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致公司的實際或未來結果和業績與這些陳述中明示或暗示的存在重大差異。有關我們安全港免責聲明的完整說明，請參閱今天的新聞稿。另請參閱我們今天的套牌中包含的與我們的評論相關的提醒幻燈片。

This morning, we will cover our '21 highlights as well as our Q4 results. We'll then provide our '22 outlook and lastly run through our financial strategy. And with that, I'll pass it over to Swamy.

今天早上，我們將介紹我們的 '21 亮點以及我們的第四季度業績。然後，我們將提供我們的 '22 展望，最後貫穿我們的財務戰略。有了這個，我會把它交給斯瓦米。

Thank you, Louis. Good morning, everyone. We've been busy over the last few days, taking our Board through our annual results and our business plans. Today, I'll recap 2021, comment on our results and address our outlook.

謝謝你，路易斯。大家，早安。在過去的幾天裡，我們一直很忙，向董事會介紹我們的年度業績和業務計劃。今天，我將回顧 2021 年，評論我們的結果並闡述我們的前景。

2020 was a very challenging year that was dominated by the global turmoil caused by COVID. In 2021, the auto industry was severely impacted by supply chain disruptions, most notably the lack of availability of semiconductor chips. Once again, we found ourselves working closely with our customers to manage through the challenges to mitigate the impact on production.

2020 年是充滿挑戰的一年，主要由 COVID 引起的全球動盪主導。 2021 年，汽車行業受到供應鏈中斷的嚴重影響，最明顯的是缺乏半導體芯片。再一次，我們發現自己與客戶密切合作，以應對挑戰，減輕對生產的影響。

While I'm not happy with our financial results in 2021, when I sit back and think about the efforts and performance of our team, whether it be winning new businesses, launches or other operational excellence activities, I was extremely pleased with the results we achieved. It is a testament to our people that we manage through yet another difficult operating environment. Our culture of collaboration and execution comes through once again in '21.

雖然我對 2021 年的財務業績並不滿意，但當我坐下來思考我們團隊的努力和表現時，無論是贏得新業務、推出還是其他卓越運營活動，我對我們的業績感到非常滿意達到。這是對我們員工的證明，我們在另一個艱難的運營環境中進行管理。我們的協作和執行文化在 21 年再次出現。

In 2020, the first half of the year was severely impacted by COVID-related production shutdowns globally, while the second half saw a strong vehicle production rebound. In each of the first 3 quarters of 2021, we experienced sequential weakening of vehicle production as the semi chip availability became progressively worse. In addition to the lower production, inefficiencies driven by the unpredictable production schedules of our customers drove higher-than-typical decremental margins.

2020年上半年，受新冠肺炎疫情全球停產的嚴重影響，下半年汽車產量出現強勁反彈。在 2021 年前三個季度的每個季度，我們都經歷了汽車生產的連續疲軟，因為半導體芯片的可用性越來越差。除了產量下降之外，我們客戶不可預測的生產計劃導致的低效率推動了高於典型的遞減利潤率。

The fourth quarter saw some sequential recovery in production but global volumes were still down 17% from the fourth quarter of 2020. As a result of this cadence, our sales of $9.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 were down 14% year-over-year. However, organic sales outperformed our underlying markets by 6% in the quarter. EBIT margin declined year-over-year to 5.6%, while increasing from 2.9% in Q3. Our adjusted EPS was $1.30 for the quarter. And free cash flow in Q4 was $729 million, ending the year at $1.3 billion.

第四季度產量環比回升，但全球銷量仍比 2020 年第四季度下降 17%。由於這種節奏，我們在 2021 年第四季度的銷售額為 91 億美元，同比下降 14%。年。然而，本季度的有機銷售額比我們的基礎市場高出 6%。息稅前利潤率同比下降至 5.6%，而第三季度為 2.9%。我們本季度調整後的每股收益為 1.30 美元。第四季度的自由現金流為 7.29 億美元，年底為 13 億美元。

Now let us look at some highlights for 2021. Keeping our employees safe throughout the pandemic has been and will continue to be our top priority. We have been evolving and updating our protocols and facilitating testing and vaccination programs globally to help protect the health and safety of our employees.

現在讓我們來看看 2021 年的一些亮點。在整個大流行期間確保員工安全一直是並將繼續是我們的首要任務。我們一直在發展和更新我們的協議，並在全球範圍內促進檢測和疫苗接種計劃，以幫助保護我們員工的健康和安全。

We remain focused on three key priorities: Building awareness; creating an inclusive workforce, including through training and leveraging tools and recruiting to help remove any bias during screening. To continue to cultivate a culture of learning, we have launched several new education programs for employees facilitating further development. And among the many awards we received, Magna has been recognized for the fifth consecutive year being named Forbes World's Best Employer for 2021.

我們仍然專注於三個關鍵優先事項：創建一個具有包容性的員工隊伍，包括通過培訓和利用工具以及招聘來幫助消除篩選過程中的任何偏見。為了繼續培養學習文化，我們為員工推出了幾項新的教育計劃，以促進進一步的發展。在我們獲得的眾多獎項中，麥格納連續第五年被評為 2021 年福布斯全球最佳雇主。

We never lost sight of the importance of operational excellence. Last year, we committed to being carbon neutral in our European operations by 2025 and globally by 2030. This should place us among industry leaders in Europe and North America.

我們從未忘記卓越運營的重要性。去年，我們承諾到 2025 年在我們的歐洲業務中實現碳中和，到 2030 年在全球範圍內實現碳中和。這將使我們成為歐洲和北美的行業領導者。

We managed through the year-long supply chain challenges while working diligently with our customers to minimize production disruptions. And our focus on operational excellence and innovation led to customer recognition. Last year, we received our highest ever customer recognition awards, 122 in total.

我們克服了長達一年的供應鏈挑戰，同時努力與客戶合作，盡量減少生產中斷。我們對卓越運營和創新的關注獲得了客戶的認可。去年，我們總共獲得了 122 個客戶認可獎，這是我們有史以來最高的獎項。

Now let me comment on growth. We outgrew our market in 2021 by 4%. This exceeded the outgrowth we anticipated in our initial outlook last year. In fact, we achieved that outgrowth in each of our major regions: North America, Europe and Asia. And we launched new technologies that have significant growing addressable markets, namely e-drives, advanced driver assist systems and EV battery enclosures. We expect these product areas to keep driving our growth for many years to come.

現在讓我評論一下增長。到 2021 年，我們的市場增長速度超過了 4%。這超出了我們在去年的初步展望中預期的增長。事實上，我們在每個主要地區都實現了這一增長：北美、歐洲和亞洲。我們推出了具有顯著增長目標市場的新技術，即電子驅動器、高級駕駛輔助系統和電動汽車電池外殼。我們預計這些產品領域將在未來許多年繼續推動我們的增長。

Finally, I would like to touch on our innovation. We demonstrated the successful commercialization of our innovation activities over the past few years. We were awarded new business in a number of core areas. This includes a recently announced driver monitoring system for a German-based OEM. We won the CES Best Innovation Award for our icon digital RADAR, which is going into production this year. We also continued to expand our collaboration with a growing ecosystem of entities to help accelerate time to market for our innovative products.

最後，我想談談我們的創新。在過去幾年中，我們展示了我們創新活動的成功商業化。我們在多個核心領域獲得了新業務。這包括最近為一家德國 OEM 發布的駕駛員監控系統。我們的標誌性數字雷達贏得了 CES 最佳創新獎，該雷達將於今年投入生產。我們還繼續擴大與不斷發展的實體生態系統的合作，以幫助加快我們創新產品的上市時間。

And lastly our commitment to innovation continues. Over the past year, we increased investments in megatrend areas to position us for the future.

最後，我們對創新的承諾仍在繼續。在過去的一年裡，我們增加了對大趨勢領域的投資，為未來做好準備。

Normally, I will be passing off to Vince, and I've heard this statement over many years, Don did it and I did it for the last quarter. He is here with us. Instead, I'll pass the call to Pat McCann, our new CFO, who will first take us through the financials. But before I do, I would like to thank Vince for continuing to be a mentor to both Pat and I. Pat?

通常情況下，我會冒充文斯，而且我多年來一直聽到這種說法，唐做到了，我在最後一個季度也做到了。他和我們在一起。相反，我將把電話轉給我們的新首席財務官 Pat McCann，他將首先帶領我們了解財務狀況。但在此之前，我要感謝文斯繼續擔任帕特和我的導師。帕特？

Thanks, Swamy, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone is staying safe and healthy. I'm happy to be speaking with all of you as CFO. I would like to start by thanking Vince, who has helped me immensely over the years and have supported me while I have prepared for my new role. It will be evident that Swamy, Vince and I are fully aligned on Magna's disciplined returns-based approach to capital allocation.

謝謝，斯瓦米，大家早上好。我希望每個人都保持安全和健康。作為首席財務官，我很高興與大家交談。首先，我要感謝文斯，他多年來對我提供了極大的幫助，並在我為新角色做準備時一直支持我。很明顯，斯瓦米、文斯和我完全贊同麥格納嚴格的基於回報的資本配置方法。

Today, I will cover our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2021. I'll do a shorter-than-usual version of our quarterly review to allow more time to cover our outlook and financial strategy. More detail on our financials is included in the appendix.

今天，我將介紹我們 2021 年第四季度和全年的財務業績。我將對我們的季度審查進行比平時更短的版本，以便有更多時間來介紹我們的前景和財務戰略。附錄中包含有關我們財務狀況的更多詳細信息。

As Swamy said, both 2020 and 2021 were impacted by significant global events. '20 was affected by COVID-related production shutdowns, particularly in the first half of the year. 2021 was impacted by semi chip shortages. Overall, global light vehicle production only increased 4% in '21. Our consolidated sales rose 11% year-over-year. On an organic basis, our sales increased 5% compared to a weighted global production increase of 1%, driving a 4% weighted growth over market for the year. Mainly as a result of the higher year-over-year sales, our adjusted EBIT margin and EPS also rose.

正如斯瓦米所說，2020 年和 2021 年都受到重大全球事件的影響。 '20 受到與 COVID 相關的生產停工的影響，尤其是在今年上半年。 2021 年受到半芯片短缺的影響。總體而言，21 世紀全球輕型汽車產量僅增長 4%。我們的綜合銷售額同比增長 11%。在有機基礎上，與全球加權產量增長 1% 相比，我們的銷售額增長了 5%，推動了今年市場的 4% 加權增長。主要由於同比銷售額較高，我們調整後的息稅前利潤率和每股收益也有所上升。

For the fourth quarter, global light vehicle production declined 17% as a result of year-over-year reductions of 20%, 28% and 10% in North America, Europe and China, respectively. On a Magna-weighted basis, production declined 20% in the fourth quarter compared to Q4 2020. Consolidated sales were $9.1 billion compared to $10.6 billion in Q4 2020. We had strong relative sales performance in the quarter with organic sales outperforming weighted production by 6%, largely as a result of the lower year-over-year sales, adjusted EBIT and EPS declined from the fourth quarter of 2020.

第四季度，由於北美、歐洲和中國分別同比下降 20%、28% 和 10%，全球輕型汽車產量下降了 17%。按麥格納加權計算，第四季度的產量與 2020 年第四季度相比下降了 20%。合併銷售額為 91 億美元，而 2020 年第四季度為 106 億美元。我們在本季度的相對銷售表現強勁，有機銷售額比加權產量高 6 倍%，主要是由於同比銷售額下降，調整後的息稅前利潤和每股收益從 2020 年第四季度開始下降。

As with the past couple of quarters, a more informative comparison is reviewing sequential results. Comparing Q4 to Q3 of 2021, global light vehicle production was up 21%, driven principally by China and Europe as chip-related production shutdown subsided to some degree. Our sales were up 15% due to higher production and the launch of new programs, partially offset by negative program mix and foreign currency translation.

與過去幾個季度一樣，更多信息比較是回顧連續結果。與 2021 年第四季度和第三季度相比，全球輕型汽車產量增長 21%，主要受中國和歐洲推動，芯片相關停產在一定程度上有所緩解。由於產量增加和新節目的推出，我們的銷售額增長了 15%，但部分被負面節目組合和外幣換算所抵消。

All of our segments experienced sequential increases in sales.

我們所有的部門都經歷了銷售額的連續增長。

Comparing the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2021, our adjusted EBIT increased from $229 million to $508 million, and EBIT margin rose from 2.9% in Q3 to 5.6% in Q4. The adjusted EBIT increase reflected a number of factors: Higher earnings on increased sales, the $45 million provision on engineering contracts with Evergrande recorded last quarter, government R&D incentives received this past quarter and higher commercial settlements. These were partially offset by higher input costs and increased transactional foreign exchange losses.

與 2021 年第三季度相比，我們調整後的息稅前利潤從 2.29 億美元增加到 5.08 億美元，息稅前利潤率從第三季度的 2.9% 上升到第四季度的 5.6%。調整後的息稅前利潤增長反映了多個因素：銷售額增加帶來的收益增加、上季度與恆大簽訂的工程合同準備金為 4500 萬美元、上個季度獲得的政府研發獎勵以及更高的商業結算。這些被較高的投入成本和增加的交易外匯損失部分抵消。

I will now review our cash flows and investment activities. During the fourth quarter of 2021, we generated $849 million in cash from operations before changes in working capital and an additional $502 million in working capital. Investment activities in the quarter included $549 million in fixed assets; a $105 million increase in investments, other assets and intangibles; $63 million to finalize the LG Magna joint venture; $31 million for a small acquisition; and $45 million in public and private equity investments. Free cash flow was $729 million in Q4.

我現在將回顧我們的現金流和投資活動。在 2021 年第四季度，在營運資本變動之前，我們從運營中產生了 8.49 億美元的現金，另外還有 5.02 億美元的營運資本。本季度的投資活動包括 5.49 億美元的固定資產；投資、其他資產和無形資產增加 1.05 億美元； 6300 萬美元用於敲定 LG Magna 合資企業； 3100 萬美元用於小規模收購；以及 4500 萬美元的公共和私募股權投資。第四季度的自由現金流為 7.29 億美元。

We also repurchased $251 million of our common shares and paid $127 million in dividends. Growing our dividend as part of our stated financial strategy. And yesterday, our Board approved a 5% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.45 per share, reflecting the Board and management's collective confidence in the outlook for our business. We have increased our dividend per share at an average growth rate of 12% going back to 2020.

我們還回購了 2.51 億美元的普通股，並支付了 1.27 億美元的股息。作為我們既定財務戰略的一部分，增加我們的股息。昨天，我們的董事會批准將我們的季度股息增加 5% 至每股 0.45 美元，這反映了董事會和管理層對我們業務前景的集體信心。自 2020 年以來，我們以 12% 的平均增長率增加了每股股息。

And now, I will pass it to Swamy for a few introductory comments before getting into the specifics of our outlook.

現在，我將把它傳遞給 Swamy 以進行一些介紹性評論，然後再詳細介紹我們的前景。

At our investor event last April, I articulated our go-forward strategy for growth. We are on track with our strategy to further strengthen our position in megatrend areas, drive operational excellence, and look to leverage our unique position in the industry to unlock new opportunities. I look forward to giving you the details of our progress at our investor event in May.

在去年四月的投資者活動中，我闡述了我們的發展戰略。我們的戰略正在步入正軌，以進一步加強我們在大趨勢領域的地位，推動卓越運營，並希望利用我們在行業中的獨特地位來開啟新的機遇。我期待在 5 月的投資者活動中向您詳細介紹我們的進展情況。

But today, I'm going to focus on our 3-year outlook, which I'm really excited about. It reflects our go-forward strategy to remain a leader in mobility. You're going to see that we continue to increase our investments in megatrend areas, and that much of the growth associated with these investments will be realized beyond our outlook period.

但是今天，我將專注於我們的 3 年展望，我對此感到非常興奮。它反映了我們在移動領域保持領先地位的前進戰略。您將看到我們繼續增加對大趨勢領域的投資，並且與這些投資相關的大部分增長將在我們的展望期之後實現。

Specifically in the outlook, we see both tailwinds and headwinds. In terms of tailwinds, we are launching content on a number of new programs, which is contributing to sales growth. I will come back to that shortly. Related to last year's outlook, we have an increase in business awards and are seeing opportunities in megatrend areas, particularly electrification and autonomy.

特別是在展望中，我們看到了順風和逆風。在順風方面，我們正在推出一些新節目的內容，這有助於銷售增長。我很快就會回來。與去年的展望相關的是，我們的商業獎勵有所增加，並且在大趨勢領域看到了機會，特別是電氣化和自動化。

With the current robust auto demand and low dealer inventory levels, we expect a favorable production environment extending into 2024. And our operational excellence initiatives are expected to contribute to margin improvement through our outlook period.

鑑於當前強勁的汽車需求和較低的經銷商庫存水平，我們預計有利的生產環境將延續到 2024 年。我們的卓越運營計劃預計將有助於在我們的展望期內提高利潤率。

In terms of headwinds in our outlook, we expect continued semiconductor supply constraints to impact production in '22. The supply chain in general remains relatively vulnerable, which could also impact vehicle production. And our business is facing inflationary input cost impacts in areas such as commodities, labor, energy, logistics and other areas, some of which are expected to be short term in nature and others being more enduring.

就我們前景的不利因素而言，我們預計持續的半導體供應限制將影響 22 年的生產。總體而言，供應鏈仍然相對脆弱，這也可能影響汽車生產。我們的業務在商品、勞動力、能源、物流和其他領域面臨通脹投入成本影響，其中一些預計是短期的，而另一些則更持久。

We expect weaker operating results in the first half of the year relative to the second primarily as a result of semiconductor availability, which negatively impact production more significantly in the first half.

我們預計上半年的經營業績相對於下半年較弱，主要是由於半導體的可用性，這對上半年的生產產生了更大的負面影響。

So how does all of this translate in our key financial metrics? We expect to continue strong sales growth through our outlook period and we have confidence in our outlook. About 90% of our 2024 sales are already booked. In spite of inflationary input cost pressures and increased engineering activities in megatrend areas, margins are expected to expand in each year of our outlook.

那麼所有這些如何轉化為我們的關鍵財務指標呢？我們預計在我們的展望期內將繼續強勁的銷售增長，我們對我們的前景充滿信心。我們 2024 年的銷售額中約有 90% 已被預訂。儘管存在通脹投入成本壓力和大趨勢領域的工程活動增加，但我們預計在我們展望的每一年中，利潤率都會擴大。

Our engineering investments in megatrend areas should increase to an average of about $900 million annually before customer recoveries. Capital spending is also expected to increase largely as a result of investments to support the growth in our outlook. Lastly, free cash flow generation from our business is expected to remain strong, reflecting our operating performance and our disciplined approach to investment. This should allow us to further invest for growth and return capital to shareholders.

在客戶恢復之前，我們在大趨勢領域的工程投資應增加到平均每年約 9 億美元。由於投資支持我們的前景增長，預計資本支出也將在很大程度上增加。最後，我們的業務產生的自由現金流預計將保持強勁，這反映了我們的經營業績和我們嚴謹的投資方法。這應該使我們能夠進一步投資以實現增長並將資本返還給股東。

The industry is undergoing a significant shift towards electrified powertrains. In particular, OEMs are bringing an increased number of [BES] to market. We have been communicating for some time now that the vast majority of our product portfolio is powertrain agnostic and the electrification is, in fact, an opportunity for us. And Magna has significant content on electric vehicles that are launching this year across the globe.

該行業正在向電氣化動力系統進行重大轉變。特別是，OEM 正在將越來越多的 [BES] 推向市場。一段時間以來，我們一直在溝通，我們的絕大多數產品組合都與動力系統無關，而電氣化實際上對我們來說是一個機會。麥格納擁有關於今年在全球推出的電動汽車的重要內容。

Just to name a few, we have over $3,500 in content on the Cadillac Lyriq, about $2,000 on the F-150 Lightning, about $1,000 on BMW iX, about $500 each on Xpeng and Smart SUVs and around $900 on the NIO ES7. These vehicles shown are well above our average content in the respective markets. These are just some of the many vehicle launches around the world that are contributing to the sales growth in our outlook.

僅舉幾例，我們在凱迪拉克 Lyriq 上的內容超過 3,500 美元，在 F-150 Lightning 上約 2,000 美元，在 BMW iX 上約 1,000 美元，在 Xpeng 和 Smart SUV 上各約 500 美元，在 NIO ES7 上約 900 美元。顯示的這些車輛遠高於我們在各自市場的平均含量。這些只是全球眾多汽車發布中的一部分，它們有助於我們展望的銷售增長。

With that, I will pass it back to Pat.

有了這個，我會把它傳回給帕特。

Thanks, Swamy. Let me start with the key assumptions on our outlook. Our outlook reflects increased vehicle production in each of our key regions relative to 2021.

謝謝，斯瓦米。讓我從對我們前景的關鍵假設開始。我們的展望反映了相對於 2021 年，我們每個關鍵地區的汽車產量都有所增加。

In North America and Europe, our two largest markets, volumes in 2022 remained well below levels experienced in 2019, pre-COVID. And China production is also slightly lower. However, we expect increased production through 2024. We assume exchange rates in our outlook will approximate recent rates. This reflects a weaker euro relative to '21, which negatively impacts our reported sales going forward.

在我們最大的兩個市場北美和歐洲，2022 年的銷量仍遠低於 2019 年 COVID 之前的水平。而中國的產量也略低。但是，我們預計到 2024 年產量將增加。我們假設我們展望中的匯率將接近近期匯率。這反映出歐元相對於 21 年疲軟，這對我們報告的未來銷售額產生了負面影響。

I will start with our consolidated outlook. We expect consolidated sales to grow by 7% to 9% on average per year out to 2024, reaching $44.6 billion and potentially as high as $47.1 billion. The growth is driven by higher vehicle production and content growth, including as a result of many new technologies across our portfolio. These are partially offset by foreign exchange, the end of production on certain programs and net dispositions.

我將從我們的綜合展望開始。我們預計到 2024 年，綜合銷售額將平均每年增長 7% 至 9%，達到 446 億美元，可能高達 471 億美元。這一增長是由更高的汽車產量和內容增長推動的，包括我們產品組合中許多新技術的結果。這些被外匯、某些計劃的生產結束和淨處置部分抵消。

On an organic basis, we expect consolidated sales to grow between 8% and 10% on average per year out to 2024. Excluding complete vehicles, we expect our organic sales to grow between 10% and 12% on average. In addition, we are expecting significant sales growth from unconsolidated joint ventures over the next few years including from our LG e-powertrain joint venture, our integrated e-Drive JV in China and a new seating joint venture in North America.

在有機基礎上，我們預計到 2024 年，綜合銷售額平均每年增長 8% 至 10%。不包括整車，我們預計有機銷售額平均增長 10% 至 12%。此外，我們預計未來幾年未合併的合資企業的銷售額將顯著增長，包括我們的 LG 電動動力總成合資企業、我們在中國的綜合 e-Drive 合資企業和在北美的新座椅合資企業。

We expect our consolidated margin to expand in 2022 and then again out to '24. Relative to '21, our 2022 margin benefits from contribution on higher sales, lower production inefficiencies from unpredictable OEM production schedules and operational excellence initiatives. These are expected to be partially offset by higher input costs and engineering investments to support new program awards and to capitalize on growing opportunities in megatrend areas.

我們預計我們的綜合利潤率將在 2022 年擴大，然後再次擴大到 24 年。相對於 21 年，我們 2022 年的利潤率受益於更高的銷售額、來自不可預測的 OEM 生產計劃和卓越運營計劃帶來的更低的生產效率。這些預計將被更高的投入成本和工程投資部分抵消，以支持新的項目獎勵並利用大趨勢領域的增長機會。

We also expect a meaningful step up in margins in '23. This is largely driven by contribution on higher anticipated sales, operational excellence initiatives and lower application engineering in megatrend areas. And we expect additional margin expansion in '24 primarily driven by higher sales and operational excellence initiatives.

我們還預計 23 年的利潤率會顯著提高。這主要是由於在大趨勢領域對更高預期銷售額、卓越運營計劃和更低應用工程的貢獻。我們預計 24 年的利潤率將進一步擴大，這主要是由更高的銷售額和卓越運營計劃推動的。

Many of the same factors that are impacting consolidated sales and margins out to 2024 are also impacting our segments. In the interest of time, we will not run through the segment detail. However, they are included in the appendix and we're happy to discuss any questions on them.

到 2024 年影響綜合銷售額和利潤率的許多相同因素也在影響我們的細分市場。由於時間關係，我們不會詳細介紹細分市場。但是，它們包含在附錄中，我們很樂意討論有關它們的任何問題。

Next, I would like to cover some of the highlights of our financial strategy. We have been consistent in communicating our capital allocation principles over the years, and I would like to reiterate these now. We want to maintain a strong balance sheet, ample liquidity and high investment-grade ratings, invest for growth through organic and inorganic opportunities along with innovation spending and return capital to shareholders.

接下來，我想介紹一下我們財務戰略的一些亮點。多年來，我們一直在傳達我們的資本分配原則，現在我想重申一下。我們希望保持強勁的資產負債表、充足的流動性和高投資級評級，通過有機和無機機會以及創新支出和向股東返還資本來實現增長。

Over the last couple of years, our capital spending has been below normal levels as a result of the environment. As we get into our outlook period, spending reflects the capital required to support the growth in sales. We expect capital spending to be approximately $1.8 billion for 2022 and remain relatively level out to '24. We expect further strong free cash flow totaling about $6 billion over the next 3 years.

在過去幾年中，由於環境原因，我們的資本支出一直低於正常水平。隨著我們進入展望期，支出反映了支持銷售增長所需的資本。我們預計 2022 年的資本支出約為 18 億美元，並在 24 年保持相對平穩。我們預計未來 3 年自由現金流將進一步強勁，總額約為 60 億美元。

In summary, we are executing our go-forward strategy. We plan to further grow our business with particular sales acceleration in megatrend areas, execute on our plans to expand margins, including through operational excellence, generate solid free cash flow to further fuel growth and return capital to shareholders and accelerate investments to support growth on the car of the future.

總之，我們正在執行我們的前進戰略。我們計劃進一步發展我們的業務，特別是在大趨勢領域加速銷售，執行我們擴大利潤率的計劃，包括通過卓越運營，產生穩定的自由現金流以進一步推動增長並向股東返還資本，並加速投資以支持增長未來的汽車。

We hope to see many of you in May at our investor invest where we will elaborate on our go-forward strategy.

我們希望在五月份看到你們中的許多人在我們的投資者投資中詳細闡述我們的前進戰略。

Thanks for your attention. We'll be happy to answer your questions.

感謝您的關注。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll proceed with our first question on the line with Mr. John Murphy of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（操作員說明）我們將繼續與美銀美林的約翰墨菲先生進行第一個問題。

Pat, welcome to the call. Just -- a first question, if I look at Slide 23, which is your light vehicle production assumptions and Slide 25, your 2024 sales, it looks like your sales through -- - from '21 to '24 growing largely or essentially right in line at the midpoint with production. So I'm just curious, it seems like the growth above market that you had kind of fades away in your outlook. And it looks like it's complete vehicle assembly largely. But I just -- what's the key driver? Is it there just the mix? Or what's going on there?

帕特，歡迎來電。只是 - 第一個問題，如果我看一下幻燈片 23，這是您的輕型汽車生產假設和幻燈片 25，您的 2024 年銷售額，看起來您的銷售額從 21 年到 24 年在很大程度上或基本上在增長在生產線的中點。所以我只是好奇，看起來你所擁有的高於市場的增長在你的前景中消失了。看起來它很大程度上是完整的車輛組裝。但我只是——關鍵驅動因素是什麼？它只是混合嗎？或者那裡發生了什麼？

Yes. If you go back, John, to where we were -- what we were expecting in 2021, we are sort of flat relative to production. Our organic growth at the end of the year is plus 4. So starting point is higher for one thing. We also said that our expectation for the '21 to '24 time frame is like 1% to 3% on average per year.

是的。約翰，如果你回到我們所處的位置——我們對 2021 年的預期，相對於生產而言，我們有點持平。我們在年底的有機增長是加 4。所以起點更高。我們還表示，我們對 21 至 24 年時間框架的預期平均每年為 1% 至 3%。

If you look at excluding the impact of complete vehicles, which has had an impact on our overall growth, we're back at the kind of 1% to 3% per year in the '21 to '24 time frame. So certainly, complete vehicles is negatively impacting our overall growth rate. And we're not talking about here is unconsolidated sales, which is growing significantly over our time period.

如果排除整車的影響，這對我們的整體增長產生了影響，我們會在 21 到 24 年的時間範圍內回到每年 1% 到 3% 的水平。因此，整車無疑對我們的整體增長率產生了負面影響。而且我們在這裡談論的不是非合併銷售，它在我們的時間段內顯著增長。

Yes. Yes. That helps quite a bit. And just a second question. I mean, as the automakers are focusing more and more on AV and EV investments. There's this idea, and I think this makes a lot of sense that they are going to outsource more and more parts of the vehicle, even outside those systems, which really lays in the sweet spot of Magna and your business.

是的。是的。這很有幫助。還有第二個問題。我的意思是，隨著汽車製造商越來越關注 AV 和 EV 投資。有這個想法，我認為這很有意義，他們將外包越來越多的車輛部件，甚至在這些系統之外，這確實是麥格納和您的業務的最佳選擇。

I'm just curious if you're seeing any incremental quoting on class A stampings, if you will, or other parts where there might be greater opportunity for you to take on more and more of the vehicle as they focus their investment dollar and even capital on AVs and EVs?

我只是好奇你是否看到任何關於 A 類沖壓件的增量報價，如果你願意的話，或者其他可能有更多機會讓你承擔越來越多車輛的部分，因為他們專注於他們的投資，甚至投資 AV 和 EV？

John, this is Swamy. As we see today, definitely, from a perspective of capabilities and capacity, we are well positioned if that comes through. But as we sit here today and look at the cadence of the sourcing activity, we don't see a significant shift as of yet, but that is to be seen.

約翰，這是斯瓦米。正如我們今天所看到的，毫無疑問，從能力和能力的角度來看，如果能夠做到這一點，我們將處於有利地位。但是，當我們今天坐在這裡查看採購活動的節奏時，我們還沒有看到重大轉變，但這有待觀察。

But like you said, if you look at what we have in terms of footprint and capabilities, we should be well positioned to address that piece.

但就像你說的那樣，如果你看看我們在足跡和能力方面擁有什麼，我們應該能夠很好地解決這個問題。

Got it. And then just lastly, I apologize on the outlook, one more question on the 8.1%, 8.6% range. It's the same as what you're expecting in '23, we're looking at a little bit higher revenue base. I mean, is this the ultimate margin as sort of this 8.1%, 8.6% range? You think that Magna tops out at? Or is there potential over time as you grow in the business mix maybe shifts to potentially even get higher on margins?

知道了。最後，我就前景道歉，還有一個關於 8.1%、8.6% 範圍的問題。這與您在 23 年的預期相同，我們正在尋找更高的收入基礎。我的意思是，這是 8.1%、8.6% 範圍內的最終利潤率嗎？你認為麥格納的優勢在哪裡？或者隨著時間的推移，隨著業務組合的增長，是否有可能會轉變為潛在的利潤率甚至更高？

John, when we think about the margin here, I think there's so many components we have to consider mix. I think the one thing that's changed year-over-year is some of the input costs have increased. When we do go out, we see significant input cost increases in '22. Some of those costs will stabilize, I would say, as we go through the outlook period. Some of them won't. When we think about labor, I think there's been a reset to some degree on the labor cost, whereas others will come off.

約翰，當我們考慮這裡的利潤時，我認為我們必須考慮混合的因素太多了。我認為每年發生變化的一件事是一些投入成本增加了。當我們走出去時，我們看到 22 年投入成本顯著增加。我想說，隨著我們進入展望期，其中一些成本將趨於穩定。其中一些不會。當我們考慮勞動力時，我認為勞動力成本在一定程度上有所重置，而其他成本則會下降。

We've also seen a step-up in our investments for megatrend areas, which is going to impact our margins in the short term, but going to drive growth in the longer term.

我們還看到我們對大趨勢領域的投資有所增加，這將在短期內影響我們的利潤率，但從長遠來看將推動增長。

Got it. And I'm sorry, if I could sneak in one more, just on the Ambassador Bridge. It's not because you guys are Canadians, although you probably have a better perspective than I do as a New Yorker, what's going on up there.

知道了。很抱歉，如果我能再偷偷溜進去，就在大使橋上。這不是因為你們是加拿大人，儘管你們可能比我作為紐約人有更好的視角，但那裡發生了什麼。

But I mean, are you running into any issues with, I mean, it's not shipping -- it's trucking, and any kind of disruption around that? Or is that just a hiccup that you guys will be able to work through and the industry you think will work through?

但我的意思是，您是否遇到任何問題，我的意思是，它不是運輸——它是卡車運輸，以及圍繞它的任何形式的中斷？或者這只是你們能夠克服的一個小問題，而你認為可以克服的行業？

I think in the long term, I'm sure we'll work through. But as of right now, there is -- we're constantly monitoring it, John. And there is -- some of the OEM customers have had to idle or cut production requirements. They're adjusting, I should say, the production schedules. And we're kind of starting to see some initial impact in some areas versus the other, for example, (inaudible) facilities and so on. So we're watching it closely. I definitely hope that it will get resolved quickly.

我認為從長遠來看，我相信我們會解決的。但就目前而言，有 - 我們一直在監控它，約翰。還有——一些 OEM 客戶不得不閒置或削減生產要求。我應該說，他們正在調整生產計劃。我們開始在某些領域看到與其他領域相比的一些初步影響，例如（聽不清）設施等。所以我們正在密切關注它。我絕對希望它會很快得到解決。

We'll get to our next question on the line from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們將從亞當·喬納斯（Adam Jonas）與摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的台詞中討論下一個問題。

It's so interesting your outlook is so balanced compared to many of your OEM customers that are guiding for really significant increases in margin over the next few years. So it's a nice dose of reality.

與您的許多 OEM 客戶相比，您的前景如此平衡，這些客戶正在指導未來幾年的利潤率真正顯著增長，這非常有趣。所以這是一個很好的現實。

Swamy, where are you most concerned? You highlighted commodities. I mean, amongst the commodities, and particularly metals, what's giving you the most concern right now?

斯瓦米，你最擔心哪裡？你強調了商品。我的意思是，在大宗商品中，尤其是金屬中，你現在最關心的是什麼？

I think it's a mix a little bit, Adam, as you look at the stuff. Some of the commodities like steel, we are on resell, a significant portion of it. Some of it we have in the free market. A large part of resin also on resell. Some of it is not, especially the polyethylene-based specialty resins and so on and so forth. A little bit on aluminum and copper. But most of the times, we are indexed on resale program. And the rest, we have to manage through as the market is fluctuating.

亞當，當你看這些東西時，我認為它有點混合。一些商品，如鋼鐵，我們正在轉售，其中很大一部分。其中一些我們在自由市場上擁有。很大一部分樹脂也在轉售。有些不是，特別是聚乙烯基特種樹脂等等。關於鋁和銅的一點點。但大多數時候，我們都被轉售計劃索引。其餘的，我們必須在市場波動時進行管理。

But I wouldn't say one is significantly different than the other. There's a bunch of commodities that we are closely monitoring. And the supply is going to be one of the key things that we have to look at and how our tiered suppliers are managing that is going to be also an important thing to closely monitor.

但我不會說一個與另一個有顯著不同。我們正在密切關注大量商品。供應將是我們必須關注的關鍵事項之一，我們的分層供應商如何管理這也是密切監控的重要事項。

And then just a follow-up on Steyr. You have -- and Graz, very highly anticipated launch for this November. Was curious if there was -- if that looked on track from your perspective or anything you wanted to call out there? And what are -- any update on plans or timing or milestones regarding your decision of a North American contract manufacturing location?

然後只是對斯太爾的跟進。你有 - 和格拉茨，非常期待今年 11 月的發布。好奇是否有——如果從你的角度來看是正常的，或者你想在那裡說什麼？以及關於您決定北美合同製造地點的計劃、時間或里程碑的任何更新是什麼？

For the anticipated launch, we are -- both the teams are working together well and progressing well, I should say, Adam, right? But more specifics, I would leave for the OEM to comment.

對於預期的發布，我們 - 兩個團隊合作良好，進展順利，我應該說，亞當，對嗎？但更具體的，我會留給 OEM 發表評論。

In terms of looking just at various opportunities in Graz, they continue. In the North American footprint, like I've said before, very open to the idea of having the footprint here. As I've always said, I think it's important to have a little bit of visibility on the product plan, even though it starts off at a lower volume if there is enough visibility in the long term. I think we'll be looking forward to have their footprint in North America.

就在格拉茨尋找各種機會而言，他們繼續。正如我之前所說，在北美的足跡中，對在這裡擁有足蹟的想法非常開放。正如我一直說的那樣，我認為對產品計劃有一點可見性很重要，即使從長遠來看，如果有足夠的可見性，它的數量也會較低。我想我們會期待他們在北美的足跡。

We'll get to our next question on the line from Itay Michaeli from Citigroup.

我們將從花旗集團的 Itay Michaeli 在線回答我們的下一個問題。

First question, just wanted to go into the -- some of the incremental investments you're making this year on the megatrends. I was hoping you could quantify kind of the year-over-year impact there. It sounds like that's mostly in power solution -- power and vision.

第一個問題，只是想談談你今年在大趨勢上所做的一些增量投資。我希望你能量化那裡的同比影響。聽起來這主要是在電源解決方案中——電源和願景。

Maybe, Swamy, talk about some of the opportunities for revenue from these investments coming beyond, I think, 2024. I hope you could maybe quantify or talk about kind of where specifically you are investing on the EV and autonomy side?

也許，斯瓦米，談談這些投資的一些收入機會，我認為，2024 年以後。我希望你可以量化或談談你在電動汽車和自動駕駛方面具體投資的地方？

Yes, Itay. I think, as you said, a lot of the investment that we're talking about is in that region from an engineering investment perspective.

是的，伊泰。我認為，正如您所說，從工程投資的角度來看，我們正在談論的很多投資都是在該地區進行的。

If you look at the electrification side of things, between the -- I think if you look at the overall managed sales, by 2024, we are going to be in the $2 billion range. And in our LG joint venture that we talked about, we continue to see a 50% CAGR over the next -- or during the planned period, I should say.

如果你看看電氣化方面，我認為如果你看看整體管理銷售額，到 2024 年，我們將在 20 億美元的範圍內。在我們談到的 LG 合資企業中，我們繼續看到未來 50% 的複合年增長率 - 或者在計劃期間，我應該說。

In the ADAS area, last we talked about, 20-plus percent CAGR. And as we look at the plan period now from '21 to '24, we are even seeing a 30% CAGR. So I would say the investments that we have made and the platform technologies are starting to yield results, and we continue to see that going forward.

在 ADAS 領域，我們上次談到了 20% 以上的複合年增長率。當我們查看現在從 21 年到 24 年的計劃期時，我們甚至看到了 30% 的複合年增長率。所以我想說我們所做的投資和平台技術開始產生成果，我們將繼續看到這一點。

Specific areas, e-drives, larger addressable market for us, like we said before, not just the all-wheel drive, 4-wheel drive. Now, we are looking at all drives. So that is an expanded addressable market.

特定領域，電動驅動，對我們來說更大的潛在市場，就像我們之前說的，不僅僅是全輪驅動，四輪驅動。現在，我們正在查看所有驅動器。所以這是一個擴大的潛在市場。

On the ADAS side, we have, as we said, the building blocks in terms of the sensor suite, the compute and the software infusion capabilities. I briefly mentioned about our RADAR going into production and also a program with a German OEM on the driver monitoring system, and we also continue to see further traction in that product line.

正如我們所說，在 ADAS 方面，我們擁有傳感器套件、計算和軟件注入能力方面的構建塊。我簡要提到了我們的 RADAR 投入生產以及與德國 OEM 合作的駕駛員監控系統項目，我們還繼續看到該產品線的進一步發展。

And Itay, I think the other thing we should consider when we talk about investments in megatrend areas, there's the portion that flows through P&L as gross engineering expense. The other part that's -- and that's primarily in our P&V segment, as you pointed out.

Itay，我認為當我們談論對大趨勢領域的投資時，我們應該考慮的另一件事是，流經損益的部分作為總工程費用。正如您所指出的，另一部分主要是在我們的 P&V 領域。

The other large investment we're making is in our BES segment, and that's primarily in the form of capital as we launch battery enclosures. So we're investing now for battery enclosures that are going to be launching throughout the outlook period. We recently started the launch of the Hummer here in Michigan.

我們正在進行的另一項大型投資是在我們的 BES 部門，這主要是我們推出電池外殼時的資本形式。因此，我們現在正在投資將在整個展望期內推出的電池外殼。我們最近開始在密歇根推出悍馬。

That's all very helpful. And just a quick follow-up, and I apologize if I did miss it before, but I was hoping we can go through the bridge and complete vehicle assembly between kind of the prior outlook for 2023 that you had versus the updated outlook today for kind of the top line and margins as well?

這一切都非常有幫助。只是一個快速的跟進，如果我之前錯過了，我深表歉意，但我希望我們能夠在你之前的 2023 年展望與今天更新的展望之間通過橋樑並完成車輛組裝頂線和邊距？

Yes. If you look at 2023, we had -- we would have had the BMW 5 Series in there for most of the year, and that continues to be the case for 2024 and I would drag another year. So that program if it ends in '23, if -- it's not into '24.

是的。如果你看一下 2023 年，我們會有 - 我們會在一年中的大部分時間裡有 BMW 5 系，而且到 2024 年仍然如此，我會再拖一年。因此，如果該程序在 23 年結束，那麼它不會在 24 年結束。

Now we do have the Fisker program that launches, but there's different accounting. So you have always had kind of a full cost accounting and value-added accounting. Well, that's the 5 Series, a full cost basis. So a much higher unit -- price per unit and the Fisker program is on a value-added basis, so much lower unit price.

現在我們確實啟動了 Fisker 計劃，但有不同的會計處理方式。所以你一直有一種完整的成本會計和增值會計。嗯，這就是 5 系列，一個完整的成本基礎。因此，單位價格要高得多，而 Fisker 計劃是基於增值的，因此單位價格要低得多。

So even though the volumes in the plant are not that significantly different, but the revenues are quite different.

因此，即使工廠的產量差異不大，但收入卻大不相同。

We'll get to our next question on the line from Peter Sklar with BMO Capital Markets.

我們將回答 BMO Capital Markets 的 Peter Sklar 的下一個問題。

Just looking at your initial 2024 guidance, you're showing a lot of equity income growth over the plan period. I take if that's coming from some of these joint ventures, the partnership with LG, the partnership with HASCO. So I'm not surprised that the revenue is ramping up, but I was surprised at the growth of equity income, given that there would be initial ramp periods as those joint ventures begin to build. So just wondering if you could add a little flavor on what's driving the equity income growth?

只需查看您最初的 2024 年指導，您就會發現在計劃期內股票收入增長很多。我認為這是否來自其中一些合資企業，與 LG 的合作夥伴關係，與 HASCO 的合作夥伴關係。所以我對收入的增長並不感到驚訝，但我對股權收入的增長感到驚訝，因為隨著這些合資企業的開始建立，會有最初的增長期。所以只是想知道你是否可以在推動股票收入增長的因素上增加一點味道？

Peter, it's Pat. I think when you look at the equity income, what I would consider, you're right, a lot of the growth is coming from those joint ventures. And what you have to consider is in the early -- where we are today is we're investing heavily, the engineering spend to launch a lot of these programs in the EV markets. When we get out to 2024, a large portion of these programs will be launched generating revenues. So it's a combination of lower application engineering in the future, combined with margin on sales that are going to be generated.

彼得，是帕特。我認為，當您查看股權收入時，我會認為，您是對的，很多增長來自這些合資企業。你必須考慮的是早期 - 我們今天的情況是我們正在大力投資，工程支出在電動汽車市場推出很多這些項目。到 2024 年，這些計劃中的很大一部分將啟動並產生收入。因此，它結合了未來較低的應用工程，以及將要產生的銷售利潤。

I mean, the LG joint venture already has sales and it's ramping up pretty significantly. So there's investment there. HASCO launched the Volkswagen program last year, continues to ramp up and there's another program that launches next year. So it's going to start having more higher sales. And so there's a change in the results as a result of the drive, the sale being much higher.

我的意思是，LG 合資企業已經有了銷售額，而且還在顯著增長。所以那裡有投資。 HASCO 去年啟動了 Volkswagen 計劃，並繼續加大力度，明年還會推出另一個計劃。因此，它將開始有更多更高的銷售額。因此，由於驅動力的結果，結果發生了變化，銷售額要高得多。

Okay. Another question I had is, I'm a little lost on how many e-drive awards you've received and have announced. Like just I forget when it was, I think it was last week or recently, you issued the press release on the Volkswagen platform where you're providing the secondary drive.

好的。我的另一個問題是，我對您獲得併宣布了多少個電動驅動器獎項感到有些迷茫。就像我忘記了它是什麼時候一樣，我想是上週或最近，您在提供輔助驅動的大眾汽車平台上發布了新聞稿。

So as I recall last time you spoke up three major e-drive awards and it's the Volkswagen program you talked about last week, is that part of that? Or is that a fourth program? Maybe you could just review where you are on e-drive awards?

所以我記得上次你談到了三個主要的電子驅動獎項，這是你上週談到的大眾汽車計劃，那是其中的一部分嗎？或者這是第四個程序？也許你可以回顧一下你在電子驅動獎上的位置？

Yes. Peter, happy to do that. You're right. The Volkswagen program is the first e-drive program, and we have talked about that before. We have another program, as I just said, that's launching in HASCO next year, that will be the second. And then last year, we were awarded two additional e-drive programs that include both the primary and secondary drives. So we have four currently.

是的。彼得，很高興這樣做。你說得對。大眾汽車計劃是第一個電動驅動計劃，我們之前已經討論過。正如我剛才所說，我們還有另一個計劃，明年將在 HASCO 推出，這將是第二個。去年，我們獲得了兩個額外的電子驅動計劃，其中包括主驅動器和輔助驅動器。所以我們目前有四個。

Lots of conversations. In fact, there's an acceleration in conversations with customers over the last 12 months, and that's mainly due to all the focus on EVs. And certainly, the LG partnership is a driver there. And we're looking at a bunch of additional quotes for this business.

很多對話。事實上，在過去的 12 個月裡，與客戶的對話加速了，這主要是由於所有焦點都集中在電動汽車上。當然，LG 的合作夥伴關係是其中的推動力。我們正在為這項業務尋找一堆額外的報價。

Okay. And the LG partnership, is that for components for the e-drive system? Or will the joint venture do the entire e-drive system? Or a bit of both?

好的。與 LG 的合作夥伴關係，是否適用於電子驅動系統的組件？還是合資企業會做整個電驅動系統？還是兩者兼而有之？

It's both, Peter, if you recall, it's for components, but also with any Japanese or Korean customers, they're responsible -- LG joint venture is responsible as the Tier 1 on the e-drive side.

彼得，如果你還記得的話，它既適用於組件，也適用於任何日本或韓國客戶，他們都有責任——LG 合資企業作為電動驅動器方面的 1 級負責。

Okay. And then just lastly, on the complete vehicle assembly where results were pretty strong in terms of operating income. You attributed that partially to government research and development incentives. I'm just wondering what they're related to and what was the magnitude -- those incentives must have been pretty significant if you called them out?

好的。最後，在整車組裝方面，就營業收入而言，結果相當強勁。您將其部分歸因於政府的研發激勵措施。我只是想知道它們與什麼有關，幅度有多大——如果你把它們叫出來，這些激勵措施一定非常重要？

Yes, Peter, they're basically R&D credits, similar to what you would see here in Canada. The way that program is structured in Austria, they do run through EBIT. The number is in the range of about $20 million, and it's a little bit more significant than we're used to because it covers out-of-period amounts as well.

是的，彼得，它們基本上是研發學分，類似於你在加拿大看到的。該計劃在奧地利的結構方式是通過息稅前利潤進行的。這個數字在 2000 萬美元左右，比我們習慣的要重要一些，因為它也涵蓋了期外金額。

We'll get to our next question on the line, from the line of Chris McNally with Evercore ISI.

我們將在 Chris McNally 與 Evercore ISI 的台詞中回答我們的下一個問題。

Just a follow-up on the margin question for Power & Vision and Body. On Power & Vision, you talked about the engineering up spend in '22. Can you just talk about -- is that the majority of the margin hit year-over-year? Or is it equally shared with things like component costs?

只是對 Power & Vision 和 Body 的邊際問題的跟進。在 Power & Vision 上，您談到了 22 年的工程支出。你能談談 - 大部分利潤是同比增長嗎？或者它是否與組件成本等共享？

So if you repeat the question, Peter -- sorry, Chris?

所以如果你重複這個問題，彼得——對不起，克里斯？

Yes. The down margin year-over-year in Power & Vision, you talked about the increased spending for R&D, ADAS programs, is that the majority of the hit? Or is if we were to rank order components, higher to prices and things like that are also a headwind?

是的。 Power & Vision 的利潤率同比下降，您談到研發、ADAS 項目的支出增加，這是主要的打擊嗎？或者，如果我們要對訂單組件進行排名，價格更高，諸如此類的事情也是逆風？

Just trying to find the right page, Chris, to get to what you're referring. Just give us a...

克里斯，只是想找到正確的頁面，以獲取您所指的內容。給我們一個...

If you look at Power & Vision, I think what you're seeing terms of the big impacts to the margin are going to be the inflationary input costs. And a big chunk of the engineering spend is coming through in 2022. So that those are the two biggest drivers of the decrease in margin in '22.

如果您查看 Power & Vision，我認為您所看到的對利潤率產生重大影響的條款將是通貨膨脹的投入成本。工程支出的很大一部分將在 2022 年完成。因此，這是 22 年利潤率下降的兩個最大驅動因素。

Okay. Perfect. And then Body where obviously things normalize pretty quickly next year? Could you just talk about how raw materials are flowing through? Obviously, you have steel recovery and you also have steel scrap. Just talk about some of the tailwinds there that get back your margin to sort of this 8% plus typical range.

好的。完美的。然後身體，顯然明年事情會很快恢復正常？你能談談原材料是如何流動的嗎？顯然，你有鋼鐵回收，你也有廢鋼。只需談談那裡的一些順風，它們可以使您的利潤率回到這個 8% 加上典型範圍的範圍內。

Chris, it's Pat. When I think about the BES segment, you're right, it's primarily a steel story with some resin on the exterior side. Specifically on the steel, we are primarily covered via resale or indexing programs, and we do have a benefit of being able to resell scrap steel in the market. Those markets tend to go together. So as we see steel coming off in the future, scrap recoveries will probably move in tandem, maybe a little bit quarterly delay or whatnot.

克里斯，是帕特。當我想到 BES 部分時，你是對的，它主要是一個鋼結構，外部有一些樹脂。特別是在鋼鐵方面，我們主要通過轉售或索引計劃進行覆蓋，我們確實有能力在市場上轉售廢鋼。這些市場往往會同時出現。因此，當我們看到未來鋼鐵價格下降時，廢鋼回收可能會同步移動，可能會出現季度延遲或類似情況。

I think the biggest driver when you look at the margin increasing from the 5.7% in '21, it's really driven by higher sales. And the other factor is we're expecting some stability to come back into the production schedules from our OEM customers. So if you recall, in '21, we did have some fairly high decrementals when you have these big capital-intensive plans. And when we return back, I think that's driving the majority of that improvement.

我認為，當您看到利潤率從 21 年的 5.7% 增長時，最大的驅動因素實際上是由更高的銷售額推動的。另一個因素是，我們預計 OEM 客戶的生產計劃會恢復一些穩定性。因此，如果您還記得，在 21 年，當您擁有這些大型資本密集型計劃時，我們確實有一些相當高的遞減量。當我們回來時，我認為這是推動大部分改進的原因。

Okay. That's great. So lower risk on raws. And then my final question, just on Steyr. I think it's been asked a couple of times, but I just wanted to clarify. In your slides, I think on Slide 53, you have the volumes basically in like a 130,000 to 140,000 unit range for 2024. As far as I know, I think the capacity is around 200,000. Is the Fisker number in there because we're -- I guess what I'm trying to wonder is with the BMW rolling off and all the opportunities you have, could you fill that capacity over the next couple of years? Or are we getting close to the point where you'd make a go, no-go decision on a new North American facility?

好的。那太棒了。所以降低原料的風險。然後是我的最後一個問題，就在斯太爾。我想它已經被問過幾次了，但我只是想澄清一下。在你的幻燈片中，我認為在幻燈片 53 上，2024 年的數量基本上在 130,000 到 140,000 個單位之間。據我所知，我認為容量約為 200,000 個。 Fisker 號碼在那裡是因為我們 - 我想我想知道的是隨著寶馬的推出以及你擁有的所有機會，你能在接下來的幾年裡填補這個容量嗎？還是我們正在接近您對新的北美工廠做出決定的地步？

So Chris, I think I would say, again, depending upon the mix and what the requirements are in the assembly and the paint and so on, I would take the capacity roughly to be around 170,000 to 180,000 in Graz and similar number in our joint venture in China.

所以克里斯，我想我會再說一次，根據混合以及裝配和油漆等方面的要求，我認為格拉茨的產能大約在 170,000 到 180,000 左右，我們聯合的數量也差不多在中國創業。

So I think as the BMW rolls off, we talked about the Fisker just starting at the end of this year and slowly ramping into '23 and '24. So there is a little bit of a transitionary time as BMW comes off, right, and Fisker ramps up and we continue to have many discussions on different variants and OEMs. So it's a lumpy business. It goes through the cycle, and we're having a whole bunch of conversations to utilize the capacity appropriately.

所以我認為隨著寶馬的推出，我們談到了 Fisker 剛剛從今年年底開始，並逐漸進入 23 和 24 年。因此，隨著寶馬的退出，Fisker 的崛起，我們將繼續就不同的變體和原始設備製造商進行許多討論，這是一個過渡時期。所以這是一樁雜亂無章的生意。它經歷了循環，我們正在進行大量對話以適當地利用容量。

And Fisker is in -- Fisker is in there. So you don't have -- there's only maybe 30,000 capacity there. If another big program came, you would need a significantly more capacity.

Fisker 在 - Fisker 在那裡。所以你沒有——那裡可能只有 30,000 個容量。如果另一個大項目來了，你將需要更大的容量。

Your next question on the line from Dan Levy from Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

First, I wanted to go back on one of the earlier questions of the fact that the margin guide for '24 is flat versus '23 despite the higher revenue. I think you mentioned increased commodities and I assume that, that's just a broader [capture] for input cost. So maybe you can just elaborate a bit more on that.

首先，我想回到早先的一個問題，即儘管收入較高，但 '24 的利潤率指南與 '23 持平。我認為您提到了增加的商品，我認為這只是投入成本的更廣泛[捕獲]。所以也許你可以詳細說明一下。

So if we're just thinking about input cost or cost inflation, what's in that bucket? How much cost inflation did you see in 2021? What are you assuming for 2022? What are you assuming beyond? And then what's the mitigation? What are you assuming on mitigation of those costs? Or are those costs all sticky?

因此，如果我們只考慮投入成本或成本膨脹，那麼這個桶裡有什麼？您在 2021 年看到了多少成本膨脹？你對 2022 年的假設是什麼？你在假設什麼？那麼緩解措施是什麼？您對減輕這些成本有何假設？或者這些成本都是粘性的？

So -- sorry, Dan, it's Pat again. So if we think about the -- I think your statement is correct. I would view it primarily as just higher input costs. And when we think about those higher input costs, it's going to cover items such as commodities, whether it's steel or resins. And when I talk about steel, obviously, that's on a net basis. We have resin, we would have copper, aluminum. But we also have areas such as freight, energy costs. We're seeing an uptick, primarily in Europe. And outside of third-party costs, we're also seeing an uptick in labor costs. And the labor cost in '21 were primarily more in the form of retentions or whatnot.

所以——對不起，丹，又是帕特。因此，如果我們考慮-- 我認為您的陳述是正確的。我主要將其視為更高的投入成本。當我們考慮那些更高的投入成本時，它將涵蓋商品等項目，無論是鋼鐵還是樹脂。當我談到鋼鐵時，顯然，這是基於淨值。我們有樹脂，我們有銅、鋁。但我們也有貨運、能源成本等領域。我們看到了上升趨勢，主要是在歐洲。除了第三方成本之外，我們還看到勞動力成本上升。 21 年的勞動力成本主要以保留或其他形式出現。

What we're seeing as we go into '22 is we are experiencing higher than historical wage increases in various parts of the world. So coming back to the numbers, if you think about 2021, from that -- if we go back compared to 2020, our uptick of input cost is probably in the range of about $80 million, of about $80 million $50 million related primarily to its commodities and third party costs and $30 million would be primarily labor.

進入 22 年，我們看到的是，我們正在經歷世界各地高於歷史水平的工資增長。所以回到數字上來，如果你考慮一下 2021 年，那麼如果我們回到 2020 年，我們的投入成本上升可能在大約 8000 萬美元的範圍內，大約 8000 萬美元 5000 萬美元主要與其相關商品和第三方成本以及 3000 萬美元將主要是勞動力。

As we roll forward into 2022, the additional uptick is in the range of about $275 million, and that split would be $190 million on commodities and the balance on labor primarily.

隨著我們進入 2022 年，額外的漲幅在 2.75 億美元左右，其中大宗商品和勞動力的餘額將分別為 1.9 億美元。

And then on...

然後...

Sorry, Dan, just to want to catch off. But sort of the first part of your question, when you're looking at the margin being flat from '23 to '24, when you start thinking about commodities, they tend -- they -- we're expecting them to come off. Labor's stickier. And when you look at '23 to '24, I think we do have an uptick on our labor cost that is going to stick.

對不起，丹，只是想趕上。但是你的問題的第一部分，當你看到從 23 年到 24 年的利潤率持平時，當你開始考慮商品時，它們往往——它們——我們預計它們會下降。工黨更粘人。當您查看 23 到 24 年時，我認為我們的勞動力成本確實會上升，而且會持續下去。

But we do a higher uptick in engineering through that period, I mean that's impacting the business in the short term.

但在此期間，我們在工程方面做了更高的提升，我的意思是這會在短期內影響業務。

Okay. So you're assuming full mitigation of the commodities or some of the commodities to come off, correct? .

好的。所以你假設商品完全緩解或一些商品會脫落，對嗎？ .

Yes. Yes, we have -- we've assumed in our plan that we have some recoveries. But the numbers I pointed out are on a net basis.

是的。是的，我們已經 - 我們在計劃中假設我們有一些恢復。但我指出的數字是基於淨值的。

Okay. And then next question is just on the LG JV, and I see the Power & Vision equity income and it's coming up. Maybe you could just provide some comments on the underlying profit because I think, Swamy, you mentioned earlier that it's 50% CAGR. But if I just compare the equity income from '21 to '24, it appears like it's a slight uptick. So is that just a reflection that you're getting the revenue, but it's still not a steady-state margin by 2024?

好的。然後下一個問題是關於 LG 合資企業的，我看到了 Power & Vision 的股權收入，而且它即將到來。也許您可以就基本利潤提供一些評論，因為我認為，Swamy，您之前提到它是 50% 的複合年增長率。但如果我只比較 21 年和 24 年的股權收入，它似乎略有上升。那麼，這是否只是反映您獲得了收入，但到 2024 年仍然不是穩定的利潤率？

I think it's fair to say that we're still investing in -- like we get to 2024. Unfortunately, we don't control the joint venture, and we're not able to get into what the profitability is. We clearly, we're in heavy investment mode and over time, with the sales growth, we'll get contribution, but we can't comment on the impact.

我認為公平地說，我們仍在投資——就像我們到 2024 年一樣。不幸的是，我們無法控制合資企業，也無法了解盈利能力。我們很清楚，我們處於重投資模式，隨著時間的推移，隨著銷售額的增長，我們會得到貢獻，但我們無法評論影響。

We also have, in our equity income, one of our joint ventures, which is planning pretty conservatively, it's conservative on the amount of recoveries that they intend to get or expect to get from customers. So that's impacting equity income in the short term.

在我們的股權收入中，我們還有一家合資企業，它的計劃相當保守，他們打算從客戶那裡獲得或期望從客戶那裡獲得的回收金額是保守的。因此，這會在短期內影響股權收入。

Okay. And then just lastly, maybe you could just provide a quick comment on the free cash. You're guiding to something flat to slightly below '21. I realize a big part of that is higher CapEx. But it seems like the EBIT increase should more than offset that. So maybe you could just provide some comments on the free cash dynamics?

好的。最後，也許你可以對免費現金提供一個快速評論。您正在引導一些平坦到略低於 21 年的東西。我意識到其中很大一部分是更高的資本支出。但似乎息稅前利潤的增長應該足以抵消這一點。所以也許你可以就自由現金動態提供一些評論？

So yes, just on the free cash flow, again, I think when you put in perspective of the range we're talking for CapEx, I think that investment is pretty significant compared to the delta in profitability.

所以，是的，就自由現金流而言，我認為當你考慮到我們談論的資本支出範圍時，我認為與盈利能力的增量相比，投資相當重要。

Yes, and (inaudible) passed it over to me here. So when you think about our capital spending, the other piece we have to consider is -- we talked about capital, and this would be capital where if you go to a plant and the (inaudible) say Magna on it, there's another significant increase and it's primarily when we get into the megatrend areas. When you talk about battery enclosures, there's a significant amount of investment of customer-owned [tool]. And when we're guiding that number out, we're seeing a $50 million to $75 million increase in that number as well.

是的，並且（聽不清）在這裡交給我。因此，當您考慮我們的資本支出時，我們必須考慮的另一部分是 - 我們談到了資本，這將是資本這主要是當我們進入大趨勢領域時。當您談論電池外殼時，客戶擁有的 [工具] 有大量投資。當我們指導這個數字時，我們看到這個數字也增加了 5000 萬到 7500 萬美元。

That's the other -- you see that in other assets.

那是另一個——你可以在其他資產中看到這一點。

We will get to our next question on the line from Mark Neville with Scotia Capital.

我們將回答來自 Scotia Capital 的 Mark Neville 的下一個問題。

I just want to make sure I understand and sort of to go back on this, what's happening in complete vehicles? So volumes will be flat. Sales are down, but that's Fisker accounting but you also have the BMW rolling off in 2024. Is that correct?

我只是想確保我理解並重新回到這一點，整車發生了什麼？所以成交量將持平。銷售額下降了，但那是 Fisker 的會計，但你也有寶馬在 2024 年推出。對嗎？

BMW rolls off late in '23, the second half of 2023.

寶馬在 23 年末，即 2023 年下半年推出。

Okay. And is there a different accounting for Fisker, is that right too?

好的。 Fisker 是否有不同的會計處理方式，對嗎？

Yes, we talked about even last year, we're accounting for it on a value-added basis. That said, a lot lower unit -- price per unit than we are with the rest of our programs, including BMW 5 Series. Engineering is also down a little bit than we are [expecting]. We've been generating a lot of engineering revenues, and we're expecting that to come off a little bit from the high levels we've seen over the last couple of years.

是的，我們甚至在去年就談到過，我們是在增值的基礎上計算的。也就是說，與我們其他項目（包括寶馬 5 系）相比，單位價格要低得多。工程也比我們[預期]下降一點。我們一直在創造大量的工程收入，我們預計這將比過去幾年的高水平有所下降。

Okay. Given the Fisker accounting, if it's just value-add, wouldn't sort of -- shouldn't we assume or wouldn't normally the margin be higher?

好的。考慮到 Fisker 的會計核算，如果它只是增值，那麼我們不應該假設或者通常情況下利潤率不會更高嗎？

Yes, it's (inaudible) higher. There are still some elements in there of goods that are included in the unit price, which keeps the margin down a little bit, but it is higher. It's just a lot of factors that are going through that line. And we actually highlighted a few of them in the appendix there, but it's more than just that Fisker that's going in there. (inaudible) there's some input costs that are impacting the margin, et cetera.

是的，它（聽不清）更高。商品裡面還有一些元素是包含在單價裡面的，這讓毛利稍微降低了一點，但是還是比較高的。只是有很多因素正在通過這條線。我們實際上在附錄中強調了其中的一些，但不僅僅是那個 Fisker。 （聽不清）有一些投入成本會影響利潤率，等等。

Okay. Pat, you mentioned some -- just -- you throwed some numbers in terms of inflationary pressures, I think you said $275 million for 2022. I missed the split.

好的。帕特，你提到了一些——只是——你在通脹壓力方面提出了一些數字，我想你說的是 2022 年的 2.75 億美元。我錯過了分裂。

Yes, so -- just to be clear, so it's $275 million incremental versus '21 on a net basis and the split is $190 million on commodities or third-party costs. And then $85 million would be primarily labor.

是的，所以——為了清楚起見，與 21 年的淨額相比，它增加了 2.75 億美元，商品或第三方成本的分攤為 1.9 億美元。然後 8500 萬美元將主要是勞動力。

Okay. I'm just curious what -- sort of what steps you can take, if any, surrounding the labor and energy? Again, I appreciate commodities move around, but I guess labor feels a little more structural. So what are some of the things you can do to sort of push that through or deal with that?

好的。我只是好奇你可以採取什麼步驟，如果有的話，圍繞勞動力和能源？同樣，我很欣賞商品的波動，但我想勞動力感覺更具結構性。那麼，您可以做些什麼來推動或處理它呢？

It's a mix, I would say, right? Some of it is continuing discussions with the customers, looking at productivity improvements within the -- within our operations. It's not one answer. We look at continuous improvements in (inaudible) and that's an ongoing exercise going forward to it. And some of it will be recovered in the new quotes as we go forward.

這是一個混合，我會說，對吧？其中一些正在與客戶繼續討論，著眼於我們運營中的生產力改進。這不是一個答案。我們著眼於（聽不清）的持續改進，這是一項持續不斷的工作。隨著我們前進，其中一些將在新報價中恢復。

Okay. One last question. Just in the 2024 outlook, I understand there's no comments around M&A, but just curious to get your updated thoughts there?

好的。最後一個問題。就 2024 年的展望而言，我知道沒有關於併購的評論，但只是想知道你的最新想法嗎？

Yes. I think like I always said, we look at the geography, the customer and the product strategy overall and try to look at what is the right way to go at either organic or inorganic. And the answer happens to be inorganic. Then, we look at what's the right approach to do that.

是的。我想就像我一直說的那樣，我們著眼於地理、客戶和整體產品戰略，並嘗試著眼於有機或無機的正確方法。答案恰好是無機的。然後，我們看看什麼是正確的方法來做到這一點。

Mark, it's Vince. First time I'm going to say something on this call, kind of more of my area looking at overall strategic initiatives with Swamy. On the M&A front, we typically do not build anything into our outlook, right? We only built in M&A that has happened or we've got a contract in place.

馬克，是文斯。第一次我要在這次電話會議上說點什麼，我的領域更多地關注與 Swamy 的整體戰略計劃。在併購方面，我們通常不會在我們的前景中建立任何東西，對吧？我們只建立了已經發生的併購或者我們已經簽訂了合同。

So certainly, with the strength of our cash flow, our balance sheet strength and what's happening in the industry and the evolution of how well we're positioned, we obviously, as you can imagine, look at a whole bunch of things, and we have an overall strategic approach to our business.

因此，當然，憑藉我們現金流的實力、我們的資產負債表實力以及行業正在發生的事情以及我們定位的演變，我們顯然，正如你可以想像的那樣，著眼於一大堆事情，我們對我們的業務有一個整體的戰略方法。

And with the right opportunities, you shouldn't be surprised if we do use our balance sheet. We've used in the past. I expect we're going to continue to use it in the future to strengthen our overall product portfolio to support our customers.

有了合適的機會，如果我們確實使用我們的資產負債表，你不應該感到驚訝。我們過去用過。我預計我們將在未來繼續使用它來加強我們的整體產品組合以支持我們的客戶。

We'll get to our next question on the line from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答馬克德萊尼和高盛的下一個問題。

The company's outlook for global auto production looks pretty consistent with IHS. It is above some of the other auto Tier 1 supplier guidance. And so I'm hoping you can elaborate a bit more on how you're driving your outlook for production? How closely does it align with the OEM forecast that you're being given? And are you trying to factor in any conservatism given all of the supply chain issues?

該公司對全球汽車生產的展望與 IHS 非常一致。它高於其他一些汽車一級供應商指南。所以我希望你能詳細說明你是如何推動你的生產前景的？它與您獲得的 OEM 預測的吻合程度如何？考慮到所有供應鏈問題，您是否試圖將保守主義考慮在內？

I think if you look at '22, our outlook on a global basis is about 6% growth versus '21. In North America and Europe, I think we're a little bit more aligned. If you look at the '24, my reflection is that we're still a little bit conservative relative to IHS, at least in North America and Europe. So I mean, if you look at external forecasters, we definitely have our ear to the ground, at least in the short term, of what we're hearing from our groups and what they're hearing from their customers.

我認為，如果您查看 22 年，我們的全球前景與 21 年相比增長約 6%。在北美和歐洲，我認為我們更加一致。如果你看一下 24 年，我的看法是，相對於 IHS，我們仍然有點保守，至少在北美和歐洲是這樣。所以我的意思是，如果你看看外部預測者，我們肯定會密切關注，至少在短期內，我們從團隊那裡聽到的以及他們從客戶那裡聽到的。

So I mean, it's a combination. We have to put a stake in the ground at a point in time, and we don't know, of course, what others are doing. We'll look at the analyst roll in there where you guys are right, what you guys are expecting, when we come up with a collective view on outlook and then we finish our plans. That's kind of how we do it.

所以我的意思是，這是一個組合。我們必須在某個時間點把樁放在地上，當然，我們不知道其他人在做什麼。當我們對前景提出集體看法時，我們將看看分析師們在哪裡是對的，你們期待什麼，然後我們完成我們的計劃。這就是我們的做法。

Got it. That's helpful. And then my second question was on Optimus Ride, an acquisition the company did relatively recently. Maybe you can talk a bit more on the assets and [IP] that, that acquisition is bringing into Magna and how you plan to incorporate it into the development of the company overall?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我的第二個問題是關於 Optimus Ride，這是該公司最近進行的一項收購。或許您可以多談談資產和 [IP] 收購帶來的 Magna 以及您計劃如何將其納入公司的整體發展？

Mark, we've talked about continuing to look at different areas based on product strategy, and we have done a few things to continue to strengthen our foundation in ADAS and software in general. And with this acquisition, we welcomed about 130 employees there, had -- we thought the capabilities and the knowledge they had would add to what we're doing in the future function development and so on.

馬克，我們已經討論過繼續根據產品戰略研究不同的領域，並且我們已經做了一些事情來繼續加強我們在 ADAS 和一般軟件方面的基礎。通過這次收購，我們在那裡迎來了大約 130 名員工，我們認為他們所擁有的能力和知識將增加我們在未來職能開發等方面所做的工作。

Not commenting specifically on the [IP], but it really adds to the depth of the software in general and the ADAS piece in specific. And we will maintain the office in Boston. It's a rich area in terms of the ecosystem of economic institutions and just the software talent, so we'll continue to grow that as a region.

沒有特別評論 [IP]，但它確實增加了軟件的深度，特別是 ADAS 部分。我們將維持在波士頓的辦公室。就經濟機構的生態系統和軟件人才而言，這是一個豐富的領域，因此我們將繼續將其作為一個地區發展。

We'll get to our next question on the line from Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

我們將從富國銀行的 Colin Langan 那裡得到下一個問題。

I'm a little surprised by the commodity cost increase going from $50 million to $190 million, particularly if steel is heading in a downward direction or it has been. What are the big components of that $190 million increase if it's not steel?

我對商品成本從 5000 萬美元增加到 1.9 億美元感到有點驚訝，特別是如果鋼鐵正朝著下行方向發展，或者已經如此。如果不是鋼鐵，那麼這 1.9 億美元的增長的主要組成部分是什麼？

Colin, it's Pat again. So when you think about the commodity increase, I think I've covered off a few of the major items. Obviously, resins, we have much less resin on a resale program or indexing program. Just given the nature of the product, it's a harder -- it's a harder product to hedge against. So resin is obviously a big part of it.

科林，又是帕特。因此，當您考慮商品增長時，我想我已經掩蓋了一些主要項目。顯然，樹脂，我們在轉售計劃或索引計劃中的樹脂要少得多。考慮到產品的性質，它更難——它是一種更難對沖的產品。所以樹脂顯然是其中很大一部分。

The other big part is energy that's flowing through. We're seeing that in Europe on a lot of the -- like a lot of the input costs. What we're seeing as well is when we look at energy and some of the input costs, they're coming through the supply base as well in the form of surcharges, which are a little bit harder to control.

另一大部分是流經的能量。我們在歐洲看到了很多——比如很多投入成本。我們還看到，當我們查看能源和一些投入成本時，它們也以附加費的形式通過供應基地，這有點難以控制。

Specifically regarding steel, if you think about steel, and I understand steel prices have been coming off pretty steadily since towards the end of Q3 of last year, really, the timing of your contract and when you lock in, it's going to drive a lot of that value. So it's a bit of a three-party negotiation when you're dealing with your customers and the mills and we're in the middle. And when you lock in those contracts it really drives the steel pricing on a year-over-year basis.

特別是關於鋼鐵，如果你考慮鋼鐵，我知道自去年第三季度末以來鋼鐵價格一直在穩步下降，真的，你的合同時間和你鎖定的時間，這將推動很多那個值。因此，當您與客戶和工廠打交道時，這有點像三方談判，而我們處於中間。當你鎖定這些合同時，它確實推動了鋼鐵價格的同比增長。

The prices coming down in the scrap sales are a little as well, and that's kind of baked into there as well.

廢鋼銷售的價格也有所下降，這也有點影響。

Okay. And when I look at growth over market and if you look at '21 to '22 and I take out assembly, I'm coming up with something like an 11% growth. With your outlook for North America and Europe, up 16%. It seems like you're underperforming this year. Is that right? And is that just assuming some sort of platform mix drag relative to geographic benefit? What sort of -- one, are you actually underperforming the market this year? And then two, is that add any color on what platforms maybe you're dragging that growth over the market down?

好的。當我看市場增長時，如果你看 21 年到 22 年，我拿出組裝，我想出大約 11% 的增長。隨著您對北美和歐洲的展望，增長 16%。看來你今年表現不佳。是對的嗎？這是否只是假設某種平台混合阻力相對於地理利益？什麼樣的——一個，你今年的表現實際上落後於市場嗎？然後是兩個，這是否會在哪些平台上添加任何顏色，也許你正在拖累市場的增長？

Well, I don't think there's any particular classic, we give a range for our growth rates. And last year, we were kind of thinking the same thing. So we started the year kind of close to flat and we ended up at plus 4%, so the base is higher. But it's just the mix of programs that we have in the business that's driving the position. We still think excluding Steyr, we had growth in the entire period. We've also got a crystal that, sorry -- we've also got a disposition that we did in 2021, which is impacting overall sales.

嗯，我不認為有任何特別的經典，我們給出了我們的增長率範圍。去年，我們也有同樣的想法。因此，我們年初基本持平，最終上漲了 4%，因此基數更高。但這只是我們在業務中的項目組合推動了這一地位。我們仍然認為不包括斯太爾，我們在整個期間都有增長。抱歉，我們還有一塊水晶，我們還有一個我們在 2021 年所做的配置，這正在影響整體銷售。

Okay. And anything in particular in Power & Vision? That one seems to have the lowest growth year-over-year.

好的。尤其是在《權力與願景》中的任何內容？這似乎是同比增長最低的。

Power & Vision, in particular, has really strong growth over market over the last couple of years. We are 9% over the market in 2020 and 4% last year. So the base is certainly high there. And we have businesses in Power & Vision that are pretty established and so it isn't always going to grow fast in the market. And it just depends on the year, just the mix of programs and business.

尤其是 Power & Vision，在過去的幾年裡，在市場上的增長非常強勁。我們在 2020 年和去年分別比市場高出 9% 和 4%。所以那裡的基數肯定很高。我們在 Power & Vision 方面的業務已經相當成熟，因此它並不總是會在市場上快速增長。它只取決於年份，只是項目和業務的組合。

We'll get to our next question on the line from Rod Lache from Wolfe Research.

我們將回答來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache 的下一個問題。

This is Shreyas on for Rod. Just following up on that Power & Vision question. So it obviously has a lot of the secular growth elements in the business and like ADAS and e-Drive. And you talked about consolidated revenues up 9% to 10% through 2024. The market is up 9%. So a little bit of outgrowth. And I realize the JV part of the business is growing rapidly.

這是羅德的 Shreyas。只是跟進那個 Power & Vision 問題。所以它顯然在業務中有很多長期增長的元素，比如 ADAS 和 e-Drive。你談到到 2024 年綜合收入將增長 9% 到 10%。市場增長了 9%。所以有點長勢。我意識到合資企業的業務正在迅速增長。

But are there parts of the Power & Vision business that you expect will grow a lot slower over these next few years and maybe even shrink that you can talk about?

但是，您是否預計 Power & Vision 業務的某些部分在接下來的幾年中增長會慢得多，甚至可能會縮小，您可以談論一下嗎？

The Power & Vision has -- we have the mechatronics mirrors, lighting, ADAS. And in the powertrain, it's a combination of our transmission business and all-wheel drive, 4-wheel drive and the e-Drives. So there's kind of some of the areas which are growing fast, as we talk about with the rest of the market. Some of them are stable and have a very long runway for the next 10 years, which gives the stability, but those things are not growing as much as the other areas.

Power & Vision 有——我們有機電一體化後視鏡、照明、ADAS。在動力總成方面，它結合了我們的變速箱業務和全輪驅動、四輪驅動和電子驅動。因此，正如我們與市場的其他部分所討論的那樣，有些領域正在快速增長。其中一些是穩定的，並且在未來 10 年有很長的跑道，這提供了穩定性，但這些事情並沒有像其他領域那樣增長。

We cannot look specifically at each of the product lines. For example, the mirrors, that continue to grow with the market. Every vehicle has that. But we are looking at the combination of the mirrors and electronics in the driver monitoring system. So that's turning out to be a new product line.

我們無法具體查看每個產品線。例如，鏡子，隨著市場的發展而繼續增長。每輛車都有。但我們正在研究駕駛員監控系統中後視鏡和電子設備的組合。所以這變成了一個新的產品線。

So you can't really put a specific number on each one of these things. It's a mix. And I think as time goes on, it evolves, right? Some product lines will evolve faster than the other.

所以你不能真正為這些東西中的每一個都加上一個具體的數字。這是一個混合體。我認為隨著時間的推移，它會發展，對吧？一些產品線將比其他產品線發展得更快。

And the second, they're seeing the fastest growth in unconsolidated sales and it's Power & Vision group right, due to the LG joint venture and HASCO joint venture in particular.

其次，由於 LG 合資企業和 HASCO 合資企業，他們看到了非合併銷售額的最快增長，這就是 Power & Vision 集團。

Okay. And then you mentioned engineering spending is growing to $900 million -- megatrend engineering spending is growing $900 million in 2022. What was that spending in '21? And what are you assuming for 2024?

好的。然後你提到工程支出正在增長到 9 億美元——大趨勢工程支出在 2022 年將增長 9 億美元。21 年的支出是多少？你對 2024 年的假設是什麼？

We're talking about average annual numbers for the planned period. So if you look at just these average annual numbers, I would say it's about a $300 million increase as an average from the last plan period to now.

我們談論的是計劃期間的平均年數。因此，如果您只看這些年平均數字，我會說從上一個計劃期到現在，平均增加了大約 3 億美元。

Right. And that's gross spend. That's before recoveries and mark up.

對。這就是總支出。那是在恢復和標記之前。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. So basically, you're saying that it would be up to $1.2 billion by 2024 versus the $900 million in '22? I just want to make sure.

好的。所以基本上，你是說到 2024 年將達到 12 億美元，而 22 年為 9 億美元？我只是想確定一下。

No, we're just saying that we're expecting about $600 million on average overall in the last -- in our last outlook over the 3-year period. And now there's an uptick to about $900 million on average over the last year on the growth side -- growth spend.

不，我們只是說，在我們對 3 年期間的最後一次展望中，我們預計上一年的平均總收入約為 6 億美元。現在，在增長方面——增長支出平均比去年增加了約 9 億美元。

We'll get to our next question on the line from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.

我們將從布賴恩·約翰遜與巴克萊銀行的台詞中得到我們的下一個問題。

A lot of my questions have been grained already. So I want to ask kind of a bigger picture one. One of your large competitors that is considered role-model of the industry, Aptiv, recently made a large and fickly expensive software acquisitions. So -- and maybe there's a chance for Vince to talk a bit. How are you thinking about the role of software overall at Magna and potentially the need for acquisitions, which, of course, have been very common in multi-industry space to help you get there?

我的很多問題已經被細化了。所以我想問一個更大的圖片。您的一個被認為是行業榜樣的大型競爭對手 Aptiv 最近進行了大規模且昂貴的軟件收購。所以——也許文斯有機會談談。您如何看待軟件在 Magna 的整體角色以及潛在的收購需求，當然，這在多行業領域非常普遍，可以幫助您實現目標？

Yes. I think Brian, software is such a wide topic, and it is put under a broad umbrella. And if you look at the software capabilities and application, it's different in different product areas. But for sure, what you said is true that software will define a large part of the vehicle going forward.

是的。我認為布賴恩，軟件是一個如此廣泛的話題，它被放在一個廣泛的保護傘下。如果您查看軟件功能和應用程序，它會在不同的產品領域有所不同。但可以肯定的是，你所說的是真的，軟件將定義未來車輛的很大一部分。

Given that overall statement, we continue to look at what software and what role does it play, whether it's ADAS or whether it's mechatronics, whether it's powertrain and so on. So we continue to look at each of the specific areas of what the application software capabilities are. And therefore, the investments, whether organic or inorganic to complement that.

鑑於這一總體陳述，我們將繼續研究什麼軟件以及它扮演什麼角色，是 ADAS 還是機電一體化，是否是動力總成等等。因此，我們繼續研究應用軟件功能的每個特定領域。因此，投資，無論是有機的還是無機的，都可以補充這一點。

At a base level, there are some of the electrical architecture like we did with Fisker or with our Steyr business. We continue to look at the holistic view of what the vehicle is going to be, and we continue to add to that capability, right?

在基礎層面，有一些電氣架構，就像我們對 Fisker 或我們的 Steyr 業務所做的那樣。我們繼續著眼於車輛將成為什麼樣的整體觀點，並且我們繼續增加這種能力，對嗎？

So I think one of the unique things in Magna, which I think should be considered a role model is how we can actually integrate and think holistically of a whole vehicle and what each system means, right? So that's how we look at it.

所以我認為麥格納的一個獨特之處，我認為應該被視為榜樣的是我們如何真正整合和整體思考整個車輛以及每個系統的含義，對吧？所以我們就是這麼看的。

And does that mean you would want to be active across the software stack? Or are you thinking about specific domains or applications where you really want to focus your software expertise?

這是否意味著您希望在整個軟件堆棧中保持活躍？或者您是否正在考慮您真正想要專注於您的軟件專業知識的特定領域或應用程序？

We believe that we have to have a system viewpoint given our engineering -- full vehicle engineering and full vehicle manufacturing. And given the domains that we have, we look at domain specificity also, right? So given our portfolio, we continue to look at all of them.

我們認為，考慮到我們的工程——整車工程和整車製造，我們必須有一個系統的觀點。鑑於我們擁有的領域，我們也會關注領域特異性，對吧？因此，鑑於我們的投資組合，我們將繼續關注所有這些。

And how the stack develops and what OEMs will take on versus what the suppliers will take on is evolving, and we continue to track that.

堆棧的發展方式以及原始設備製造商將採取什麼措施與供應商將採取什麼措施正在演變，我們將繼續跟踪這一點。

[Tell me] one more question.

[告訴我] 還有一個問題。

Certainly. And we'll proceed with our final question from the line of Michael Glen from Raymond James.

當然。我們將繼續從 Raymond James 的 Michael Glen 中提出的最後一個問題。

You made the comment on the 2022 guidance regarding the 1H, 2H dynamic. Can you just provide a little bit more clarity on like how different will the two periods be as we're modeling this up?

您對 2022 年關於 1H、2H 動態的指導發表了評論。您能否更清楚地說明這兩個時期在我們建模時會有多不同？

Sorry. We don't provide quarterly, that's how to look at the overall numbers, we don't provide quarterly guidance, but definitely the impact of the chips is going to have -- is going to skew what you normally see as a stronger first half versus the second half.

對不起。我們不提供季度數據，這就是查看整體數據的方式，我們不提供季度指導，但芯片的影響肯定會產生 - 會扭曲你通常認為上半年更強勁的情況與下半場相比。

Okay. Because coming at like Q4, at the end of the day was you came out at $1.30 in EPS, and that was kind of well ahead of what consensus was forecasting. So are you expecting something different in Q1 versus what you saw in Q4? Does it get a little -- is there a little more pressure in Q1 that starts to take place?

好的。因為像第四季度一樣，最終你的每股收益為 1.30 美元，這遠遠超出了共識的預測。那麼，您是否期望第一季度與第四季度有所不同？有沒有一點——第一季度開始出現更多的壓力嗎？

Yes. We're not going to get into the details of just trying to walk from, let's say, the earnings, sort of margins in Q4 versus Q1. We don't provide that outlook. So like I said, it's more -- the direction is more related to the volumes in the first half versus the second half. We can't get into the details of what we expect in the first quarter or the first half on margins.

是的。我們不打算深入了解只是試圖從第四季度與第一季度的收益、利潤率等方面走出來的細節。我們不提供這種前景。所以就像我說的，它更多 - 方向與上半年與下半年的交易量更相關。我們無法詳細了解我們對第一季度或上半年利潤率的預期。

Okay. And just some thoughts on given where the free cash flow outlook is? Some thoughts on how you would proceed with the buyback in 2022?

好的。關於自由現金流前景在哪裡的一些想法？關於如何在 2022 年進行回購的一些想法？

Mike, we do have an open NCIB where we're able to buy up the 10% of our shares at any point in time. We have been active in the market. In the quarter just past, we did purchase $250 million. I think it's going to be consistent with our liquidity or our financial strategy, which is -- our #1 priority is to grow the business organically, inorganically. And if opportunities are not there, we're going to continue with the share buyback.

邁克，我們確實有一個開放的 NCIB，我們可以隨時購買我們 10% 的股份。我們一直活躍在市場上。在剛剛過去的一個季度，我們確實購買了 2.5 億美元。我認為這將與我們的流動性或我們的財務戰略保持一致，即我們的第一要務是有機地、無機地發展業務。如果沒有機會，我們將繼續進行股票回購。

When I think about the share buyback, what's nice about the buyback is we could turn it off. So if we do have an opportunity that comes up that is significant, we can turn it off and we have turned it off in the past. When we have looked at acquisitions, I think we're not going to change that strategy going forward.

當我考慮股票回購時，回購的好處是我們可以將其關閉。因此，如果我們確實有一個重要的機會出現，我們可以將其關閉，並且我們過去已經將其關閉。當我們考慮收購時，我認為我們不會改變未來的戰略。

Yes, Michael, it's Vince, just to add to that. I mean I've been part of this capital strategy kind of and how we evolve it over the years, it's been pretty consistent kind of -- we look at the leverage ratio. We look at the macroeconomic environment. We look at the opportunities that we see, and we've got to make sure we have enough liquidity.

是的，邁克爾，我是文斯，只是補充一下。我的意思是我一直是這種資本戰略的一部分，以及我們多年來如何發展它，它一直是相當一致的——我們看看槓桿率。我們著眼於宏觀經濟環境。我們著眼於我們看到的機會，我們必須確保我們有足夠的流動性。

And to the extent that there's excess liquidity, we've demonstrated over time that we'll return that to shareholders by way of buybacks. But as Pat talked about, I think with the buyback you've got flexibility turned on and off depending on the situation and our strategy in that area hasn't changed.

在流動性過剩的情況下，隨著時間的推移，我們已經證明我們將通過回購的方式將其返還給股東。但正如帕特所說，我認為通過回購，您可以根據情況打開和關閉靈活性，我們在該領域的策略沒有改變。

Mr. Kotagiri, there are no further questions. I'll turn it back to you.

Kotagiri先生，沒有其他問題了。我會把它還給你。

Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for listening in. I know we have had 2 straight years with difficult production environment and industry challenges still continue to persist. However, we remain confident in the strength of our business model and our ability to grow and generate earnings and free cash flow to create significant long-term value for our shareholders.

謝謝你。謝謝大家的聆聽。我知道我們已經連續兩年在艱難的生產環境和行業挑戰中繼續存在。然而，我們仍然對我們的商業模式的實力以及我們增長和產生收益和自由現金流為股東創造重大長期價值的能力充滿信心。

We stay focused on executing our go-forward strategy and look forward to seeing many or all of you in Detroit at our investor event in May. Stay safe, stay healthy and enjoy the rest of your day.

我們將繼續專注於執行我們的前進戰略，並期待在 5 月的投資者活動中在底特律見到你們中的許多人或所有人。保持安全，保持健康，享受一天的剩餘時間。

Thanks very much, and thank you, everyone. That does conclude the conference today. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines. Have a good day everyone.

非常感謝，也謝謝大家。這確實結束了今天的會議。我們感謝您的參與。你可以斷開你的線路。祝大家有個美好的一天。