Mercer International Inc (MERC) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Mercer International's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call today is Juan Carlos Bueno, Mercer's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Richard Short, Mercer's Chief Financial Officer and Secretary.

早安，歡迎參加美世國際 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有美世總裁兼執行長 Juan Carlos Bueno 和美世財務長兼秘書 Richard Short。

I will now hand the call over to Richard. You may go ahead.

我現在將電話交給理查。你可以繼續。

Thanks, Lacy. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining the call today. I will begin by touching on the financial and operating highlights of the first quarter before turning the call to Juan Carlos to provide further color into the markets, our operations, and our strategic initiatives. Also, for those of you that have joined today's call by telephone, there is a presentation material that we've attached to the Investors section of our website.

謝謝，萊西。大家早安。感謝您今天參加電話會議。我將首先介紹第一季的財務和營運亮點，然後請胡安·卡洛斯進一步介紹市場、我們的營運和策略舉措。此外，對於今天透過電話參加會議的各位，我們在網站的「投資者」部分附上了一份簡報資料。

But before turning to our results, I would like to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements in this morning's conference call. According to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, I'd like to call your attention to the risks related to these statements, which are more fully described in our press release and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

但在討論我們的結果之前，我想提醒您，我們將在今天上午的電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述。根據 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款，我想提請您注意與這些聲明相關的風險，這些風險在我們的新聞稿和公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了更詳細的描述。

This quarter, our EBITDA was $47 million compared to Q4 EBITDA of $99 million. The lower results are primarily attributed to 22 days of planned major maintenance downtime at our Celgar mill compared to no planned downtime in Q4. We estimate this downtime adversely impacted our EBITDA by approximately $30 million in direct costs and lower production.

本季度，我們的 EBITDA 為 4,700 萬美元，而第四季的 EBITDA 為 9,900 萬美元。業績較低主要是因為 Celgar 工廠計劃進行 22 天的重大維護停機，而第四季度沒有計劃停機。我們估計，此次停工對我們的 EBITDA 造成了約 3000 萬美元的直接成本和產量下降的不利影響。

Our Q1 results when compared to Q4 were also negatively impacted by foreign exchange. Our pulp segment contributed quarterly EBITDA of $50 million in Q1 and our solid wood segment EBITDA essentially broke even. You can find additional segment disclosures in our Form 10-Q, which can be found on our website and that of the SEC.

與第四季相比，我們的第一季業績也受到外匯的負面影響。我們的紙漿部門在第一季貢獻了 5000 萬美元的季度 EBITDA，而我們的實木部門 EBITDA 基本上實現收支平衡。您可以在我們的 10-Q 表格中找到其他分部披露信息，該表格可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上找到。

In the first quarter, NBSK published prices mostly increased in all our key markets compared to Q4 due to stable demand and supply constraints. However, our sales realizations were relatively flat due to the normal lag in realizing the benefit of higher prices. In Q1, the European NBSK list price averaged $1,550 per tonne, an increase of $50 from Q4 and the North American NBSK list price averaged $1,753 per tonne, an increase of $66 from Q4. In China, the NBSK net price was $793 per tonne in Q1, an increase of $26 from Q4.

第一季度，由於需求穩定和供應受限，NBSK 在所有主要市場公佈的價格與第四季度相比均有所上漲。然而，由於實現更高價格帶來的好處存在正常的滯後，我們的銷售實現情況相對穩定。第一季度，歐洲 NBSK 標價平均為每噸 1,550 美元，較第四季上漲 50 美元，北美 NBSK 標價平均為每噸 1,753 美元，較第四季上漲 66 美元。在中國，第一季 NBSK 淨價為每噸 793 美元，較第四季上漲 26 美元。

Hardwood sales realizations were essentially flat in Q1 compared to Q4 as higher prices in China were offset by lower prices in North America. In China, the Q1 average NBHK net price was $578 per tonne, up $30 compared to Q4, resulting in the average price gap this quarter between NBSK and NBHK in China being $215 per tonne. We believe the price gap is beginning to widen. The North American NBHK average Q1 list price was $1,268, down $30 from Q4.

由於中國價格上漲被北美價格下跌所抵消，第一季硬木銷售實現量與第四季基本持平。在中國，第一季NBHK平均淨價為每噸578美元，較第四季上漲30美元，導致本季度中國NBSK與NBHK的平均價格差距為每噸215美元。我們認為價格差距正在開始擴大。北美 NBHK 第一季平均標價為 1,268 美元，較第四季下降 30 美元。

Pulp sales volumes in the first quarter increased by 26,000 tonnes to 478,000 tonnes. This increase is attributed to the timing of sales. We had 22 days of planned downtime in Q1 compared to no days of scheduled downtime in Q4, which negatively impacted Q1 EBITDA by about $30 million in direct costs and reduced production. After adjusting for the scheduled downtime, pulp production modestly increased from the fourth quarter, driven by improved production at our Canadian mills.

第一季紙漿銷售量增加2.6萬噸，達到47.8萬噸。這一成長歸因於銷售時機。第一季我們有 22 天的計劃停機時間，而第四季度沒有計劃停機時間，這對第一季的 EBITDA 產生了約 3000 萬美元的直接成本和產量減少的負面影響。調整計畫停機時間後，受加拿大工廠產量提高的推動，紙漿產量較第四季略有增加。

In the second quarter of 2025, we had 18 days of planned maintenance downtime at our Peace River mill and three days of planned maintenance downtime at our Stendal mill, which combined should have roughly the same EBITDA effect as the Q1 Celgar shut. For our solid wood segment, realized lumber prices increased in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. This was driven by higher prices in both the US and European markets, which was a result of reduced supply and steady demand.

2025 年第二季度，我們的 Peace River 工廠計劃停工維護 18 天，Stendal 工廠計劃停工維護 3 天，兩者合計產生的 EBITDA 效應與第一季 Celgar 關閉工廠的效應大致相同。對於我們的實木部門，第一季的木材實際價格與第四季相比有所上漲。這是由於美國和歐洲市場價格上漲所致，而價格上漲是由於供應減少和需求穩定。

The random lengths US benchmark for Western SPF number two and better, average price was $492 per thousand board feet in Q1 compared to $435 per thousand board feet in Q4. Today, that benchmark price for Western SPF number two and better is around $485 per thousand board feet, an increase of about $40 from the beginning of the year.

西部 SPF 2 號及以上隨機長度美國基準，第一季平均價格為每千板英尺 492 美元，而第四季為每千板英尺 435 美元。如今，西方 SPF 2 級及以上木材的基準價格約為每千板英尺 485 美元，比年初上漲了約 40 美元。

Lumber production was a near record 128 million board feet in Q1, up 12% from Q4 due to seasonal downtime in the fourth quarter. Lumber sales volumes were also a near record at 131 million board feet, up about 6% from Q4. Electricity sales totaled 235 gigawatt hours in the quarter, which was about the same as Q4. Pricing in Q1 modestly increased to about $112 per megawatt hour from $109 in Q4 due to higher spot prices in Germany.

第一季木材產量接近創紀錄的 1.28 億板英尺，由於第四季季節性停工，比第四季成長 12%。木材銷售量也接近歷史最高水平，達到 1.31 億板英尺，較第四季成長約 6%。本季電力銷售總量為235吉瓦時，與第四季大致相同。由於德國現貨價格上漲，第一季的價格從第四季的每兆瓦時 109 美元小幅上漲至約 112 美元。

In Q1, our pulp segment had stable fiber costs compared to Q4. For our solid wood segment, per unit fiber costs increased in Q1, driven by strong demand for sawlogs in Germany. Our mass timber operations within the solid wood segment maintained stable sales volumes in Q1 compared to Q4. We continue to see strong and growing underlying interest in mass timber.

與第四季相比，第一季我們的紙漿部門的纖維成本保持穩定。對於我們的實木部門，由於德國對鋸木的強勁需求，第一季每單位纖維成本增加。與第四季相比，我們實木部門的大規模木材業務第一季的銷售量保持穩定。我們持續看到人們對大規模木材的潛在興趣日益濃厚。

However, the prevailing high-interest rate environment is currently impacting project timelines and overall market momentum. We believe this is a temporary headwind. Currently, we are seeing some planned project start dates slipping from 2025 into 2026.

然而，目前普遍的高利率環境正在影響專案時間表和整體市場勢頭。我們認為這只是暫時的逆風。目前，我們看到一些計劃的項目開始日期從 2025 年推遲到 2026 年。

We reported a consolidated net loss of $22 million for the first quarter or $0.33 per share compared to a net income of $17 million or $0.25 per share in the fourth quarter. We consumed about $3 million of cash in Q1 compared to about $54 million in Q4. You will recall we repaid $100 million of senior notes in Q4 last year, which was partially offset by strong operational cash flow generation.

我們報告第一季的綜合淨虧損為 2,200 萬美元，即每股 0.33 美元，而第四季的淨收入為 1,700 萬美元，即每股 0.25 美元。我們在第一季消耗了約 300 萬美元的現金，而第四季則消耗了約 5,400 萬美元的現金。您會記得，我們​​去年第四季償還了 1 億美元的優先票據，但強勁的營運現金流部分抵銷了這筆償還金額。

In Q1, our net working capital, excluding non-cash items, increased roughly $23 million due to seasonal working capital movements. We expect most of this working capital build to reverse in Q2. In Q1, we invested a total of $20 million in capital across our facilities. This included the completion of the woodroom upgrade at our Celgar mill. This project is expected to decrease our reliance on sawmill residuals and lower per unit fiber costs.

在第一季度，由於季節性營運資本變動，我們的淨營運資本（不包括非現金項目）增加了約 2,300 萬美元。我們預計大部分營運資本的累積將在第二季逆轉。在第一季度，我們向各個工廠共投資了 2,000 萬美元。其中包括完成我們 Celgar 工廠的木材室升級。該專案預計將減少我們對鋸木廠殘餘物的依賴並降低單位纖維成本。

At the end of Q1, our liquidity position totaled $471 million, comprised of about $182 million of cash and $289 million of undrawn revolvers. Finally, our Board has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share for shareholders of record on June 26, for which payment will be made on July 3, 2025.

截至第一季末，我們的流動資金總額為 4.71 億美元，其中包括約 1.82 億美元的現金和 2.89 億美元的未提取循環信貸額度。最後，董事會批准向 6 月 26 日登記在冊的股東派發每股 0.075 美元的季度股息，股息將於 2025 年 7 月 3 日支付。

That ends my overview of the financial results. I'll now turn the call over to Juan Carlos.

我對財務結果的概述到此結束。現在我將把電話轉給胡安·卡洛斯。

Thanks, Rich. I would like to begin with the topic we get asked most, which is tariffs. As it stands today, our products are not being subject to tariffs. The pulp and mass timber we import from Canada into the US and the lumber we import from Germany into the US are currently not subject to tariffs, but they're subject to a Section 232 review due to be published no later than November 2025. In addition, the wood chips we import into Canada from the US are not included in the counter tariffs that Canada has said it could apply.

謝謝，里奇。我想從我們最常被問到的話題開始，那就是關稅。目前情況是，我們的產品不受關稅約束。我們從加拿大進口到美國的紙漿和大宗木材以及從德國進口到美國的木材目前不受關稅限制，但它們需要接受第 232 條審查，該審查結果最遲將於 2025 年 11 月公佈。此外，我們從美國進口到加拿大的木片並不包括在加拿大表示可能實施的反關稅範圍內。

To give our direct tariff exposure some context, on average, we sell about 200,000 tonnes of pulp into the US annually. About two-thirds of this volume is hardwood pulp. We also export from Germany about 200 million board feet of lumber to the US. In contrast, our main import from the US into Canada is wood chips for our Celgar pulp mill, which today amounts to about 35% of the fiber consumption of the mill.

為了讓我們了解直接關稅風險的背景，我們平均每年向美國銷售約 20 萬噸紙漿。其中約三分之二是硬木紙漿。我們也從德國向美國出口約 2 億板英尺的木材。相較之下，我們從美國進口到加拿大的主要產品是用於 Celgar 紙漿廠的木屑，目前佔該廠纖維消耗量的 35% 左右。

We are experiencing some exposure in the form of secondary effects, particularly as it relates to a weaker US dollar, and to a lesser degree, a weaker pulp demand in China and in the US lumber market. We're watching trade policy developments closely and have contingency plans in place to mitigate any potential tariff impact.

我們正在經歷一些次要影響，特別是與美元走弱有關，以及在較小程度上，中國和美國木材市場紙漿需求減弱。我們正在密切關注貿易政策的發展，並制定應急計劃以減輕任何潛在的關稅影響。

With this global economic uncertainty in the background, we have refined our 2025 plan to ensure we can deliver on our top priorities, which are maximizing the operating rates of our mills and generating cash to reduce debt. As such, we have launched a company-wide program that targets $100 million that will be generated from improved operational efficiency as well as cost savings by the end of 2026 when compared to 2024.

在全球經濟不確定的背景下，我們完善了 2025 年計劃，以確保我們能夠實現首要任務，即最大限度地提高工廠的營運率並產生現金以減少債務。因此，我們啟動了一項全公司範圍的計劃，目標是到 2026 年底（與 2024 年相比）透過提高營運效率和節省成本創造 1 億美元的收入。

In addition, in 2025, we are targeting a reduction of inventories of $20 million and a reduction of our 2025 CapEx of another $20 million. Our efforts are well underway to achieve this goal of $100 million of improvement in our bottom-line results, and I am confident we will reach this goal. We look forward to sharing updates on our progress as time progresses.

此外，到 2025 年，我們的目標是減少 2,000 萬美元的庫存，並將 2025 年的資本支出再減少 2,000 萬美元。我們正在努力實現將我們的底線業績提高 1 億美元的目標，我相信我們一定能夠實現這一目標。我們期待隨著時間的推移分享我們的進展更新。

In Q1, our mills ran well. Our EBITDA of $47 million reflects a heavy maintenance quarter that saw our Celgar mill down for 22 days. We also experienced the weakening of the US dollar, which negatively impacted our results relative to Q4 last year.

第一季度，我們的工廠運作良好。我們的 EBITDA 為 4700 萬美元，反映了一個大修季度，我們的 Celgar 工廠停工了 22 天。我們也經歷了美元疲軟，這對我們的業績產生了與去年第四季相比的負面影響。

That said, there is a potential benefit for our Celgar mill as the weaker dollar should enhance the mill's purchasing power for US sourced fiber, which accounts, as I said earlier, for roughly 35% of its supply. Fiber costs were up in Germany, most notably for our sawmills. And although pulp pricing was generally up, we sold a larger proportion of hardwood pulp this quarter compared to Q4, which negatively impacted our mill nets.

儘管如此，這對我們的 Celgar 工廠來說也是一個潛在的好處，因為美元疲軟應該會增強工廠對美國纖維的購買力，正如我之前所說，美國纖維約佔其供應量的 35%。德國的纖維成本上漲，尤其是我們的鋸木廠。儘管紙漿價格普遍上漲，但與第四季相比，本季我們銷售的硬木紙漿比例較大，這對我們的工廠淨利潤產生了負面影響。

Positive market momentum continued in the second quarter. But as I just mentioned, we're beginning to see the impact of global economic uncertainty negatively affecting buying patterns and pricing in some of our markets. We're also expecting to see some modest fiber cost inflation and lower energy sales prices in the second quarter. In the meantime, the US dollar weakened further in this first month of the current quarter and is under pressure of the US government's proposed punitive tariff regime.

第二季市場持續保持積極動能。但正如我剛才提到的，我們開始看到全球經濟不確定性的影響對我們一些市場的購買模式和定價產生了負面影響。我們也預期第二季纖維成本將出現小幅上漲，能源銷售價格也將下降。同時，本季第一個月美元進一步走弱，並受到美國政府擬議的懲罰性關稅制度的壓力。

The ultimate impact of trade barriers remains unclear and is likely to remain this way until the third quarter, but we will continue to work on mitigation strategies and remain flexible to manage through the uncertainty. In the meantime, we continue to maintain an open dialogue with our customers, government officials and our industry associations. We're prepared to take swift action redirecting products to other geographies if necessary and adjusting our operations accordingly depending on the scenario that actually plays out.

貿易壁壘的最終影響仍不明朗，而且這種影響很可能持續到第三季度，但我們將繼續致力於緩解策略，並保持靈活性以應對不確定性。同時，我們繼續與客戶、政府官員和行業協會保持公開對話。如果有必要，我們準備迅速採取行動，將產品轉移到其他地區，並根據實際情況調整我們的營運。

Now turning to the pulp markets. Softwood pricing is expected to remain strong in most markets. We continue to believe that overall demand for softwood will be steady in the mid-term, which when combined with reduced supply, will create some upward pricing pressure in most markets in the second quarter of 2025.

現在轉向紙漿市場。預計大多數市場的軟木價格仍將保持強勁。我們仍然相信，中期內軟木的整體需求將保持穩定，再加上供應減少，將在 2025 年第二季對大多數市場造成一些價格上漲壓力。

In the first quarter, hardwood pricing strengthened in China due to seasonally strong demand and weakened supply due to heavy South American producer maintenance. Conversely, hardwood pricing weakened in North America due to the weaker demand.

第一季度，由於季節性需求強勁，以及南美生產商大規模維護導致供應減弱，中國硬木價格走強。相反，由於需求減弱，北美硬木價格走弱。

More broadly, we continue to believe that the longer-term outlook for softwood pulp supply-demand dynamics is favorable due to the reduced supply and increasing demand for long fiber pulp. Despite the uncertainties of tariffs, we believe that the significant contrast between the supply-demand fundamentals for softwood and hardwood pulp will drive the price difference between these two grades to levels well beyond historical norms.

更廣泛地說，我們仍然認為，由於長纖維紙漿的供應減少和需求增加，軟木紙漿供需動態的長期前景是有利的。儘管關稅存在不確定性，但我們認為，針葉木漿和闊葉木漿供需基本面之間的巨大反差將導致這兩個等級之間的價格差異遠遠超出歷史正常水平。

At the moment, we believe the net price gap in China is growing. We expect a wider price differential to persist well into 2025. As a reminder, softwood represents roughly 85% of our annual pulp sales volumes.

目前，我們認為中國的淨價格差距正在擴大。我們預計，更大的價格差異將持續到 2025 年。提醒一下，軟木約占我們年度紙漿銷售量的 85%。

As we have highlighted in previous calls, we believe that the ability of paper makers to substitute hardwood pulp in the place of softwood pulp is limited due to most of the potential substitution options having already been implemented and that only a marginal amount would still be possible. All our mills ran well with Celgar being down for 22 days of planned maintenance equating to about 30,000 tonnes of lost production.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中所強調的那樣，我們認為造紙商用硬木紙漿替代軟木紙漿的能力有限，因為大多數潛在的替代方案已經實施，而且只有極少量的替代方案仍然可行。我們所有的工廠都運作良好，只有 Celgar 工廠因計畫維護而停工 22 天，相當於損失了約 3 萬噸的產量。

In total, we produced almost 460,000 tonnes in Q1. And after allowing for Celgar's shut, that equates to about a 20,000-tonne improvement over Q4 production.

總體而言，我們第一季的產量接近 46 萬噸。考慮到 Celgar 關閉產能後，產量比第四季度增加了約 20,000 噸。

In addition, our lumber production improved relatively to Q4 by over 10%. While we improved our production output this quarter, we continue to put strong emphasis on further improving the reliability of our assets across all businesses.

此外，我們的木材產量較第四季度提高了 10% 以上。在本季我們提高產量的同時，我們繼續大力強調進一步提高所有業務資產的可靠性。

In Q1, as expected, our overall pulp fiber costs were steady relative to Q4. In Germany, we saw increased demand for sawlogs, which pushed up the price of sawmill chips, while in Canada, costs were down slightly, thanks to our Peace River's woodroom as well as our fiber sourcing strategy in Celgar. The increased demand for sawlogs in Germany has also pushed the price of fiber up for our sawmilling business.

在第一季度，正如預期的那樣，我們的整體紙漿纖維成本相對於第四季度保持穩定。在德國，我們看到對鋸木的需求增加，這推高了鋸木廠木片的價格，而在加拿大，由於我們 Peace River 的木材室以及我們在 Celgar 的纖維採購策略，成本略有下降。德國對鋸木的需求增加也推高了我們鋸木業務的纖維價格。

Looking ahead to Q2, we expect fiber costs to remain stable for our pulp business and with a small increase of about 10% for our solid wood business. Our solid wood segment continues to be held back by a weak European economy and the impact of high interest rates on the construction industry despite some modest price improvements in the US lumber market.

展望第二季度，我們預期紙漿業務的纖維成本將保持穩定，實木業務的纖維成本將小幅上漲約 10%。儘管美國木材市場價格略有上漲，但我們的實木市場仍然受到歐洲經濟疲軟和高利率對建築業影響的阻礙。

As a result, our solid wood segment posted an almost breakeven EBITDA in Q1 with high US lumber pricing offsetting the sustained weak demand for pallets. Our mass timber business took a nice step forward in 2024.

因此，我們的實木部門在第一季實現了幾乎收支平衡的 EBITDA，因為美國木材的高價格抵消了持續疲軟的托盤需求。2024年，我們的大規模木材業務邁出了堅實的一步。

When our facilities were running full, but only on one shift, we saw meaningful profitability. The uncertainty surrounding the economy on the back of the trade war is forcing developers to delay the construction as they grow concern about potential cost escalations down the road given the long lead times of their projects, pushing them into late '25 or '26.

當我們的設施滿載運轉，但只進行一個班次時，我們就看到了可觀的獲利能力。貿易戰引發的經濟不確定性迫使開發商推遲建設，因為他們越來越擔心，由於專案建設週期較長，未來成本可能會上升，導致建設推遲到 2025 年末或 2026 年。

On the positive side, however, we are currently receiving an increasing volume of inbound project inquiries. Based on our order book today, we're expecting a weaker second and third quarter with improvement beginning in the fourth quarter. And at this point, we believe we will be ramping up one of our facilities to two shifts already in early 2026.

然而，從正面的一面來看，我們目前收到的專案諮詢數量正在增加。根據我們今天的訂單，我們預計第二季和第三季將會比較疲軟，但第四季將會開始好轉。目前，我們相信，到 2026 年初，我們的其中一個工廠將實現兩班倒的產能。

Today, our mass timber order pile sits at about $24 million. We remain confident that the environmental, economic, speed of construction and aesthetic benefits of mass timber will allow this building product to grow in popularity at a pace similar to what happened in Europe. As such, we're highly confident in this business being a growth engine for Mercer.

如今，我們的大宗木材訂單總額約為 2,400 萬美元。我們堅信，大規模木材的環境、經濟、施工速度和美學優勢將使這種建築產品以類似歐洲的速度普及。因此，我們非常有信心這項業務將成為美世的成長引擎。

We're well positioned to take advantage of that market growth as we have roughly 30% of North American cross-laminated timber production capacity, a broad range of product offerings, including design and installation services and a large geographic footprint with manufacturing sites in the Northwest as well as the Southeast, giving us competitive access to the entire North American market. We have positioned ourselves to be a one-stop shop for mass timber installations.

我們擁有約 30% 的北美交叉層壓木材生產能力、廣泛的產品系列（包括設計和安裝服務）以及遍布西北和東南的生產基地的廣闊地理覆蓋範圍，因此我們完全有能力利用這一市場增長機會，這讓我們具有進入整個北美市場的競爭優勢。我們將自己定位為大規模木材安裝的一站式商店。

We expect lumber pricing to be modestly weaker in the US market at the end of the second quarter due to the impact of the current economic environment on customer demand. In contrast, we expect modest upward pricing pressure in the European market, primarily due to increasing sawlog prices. However, any meaningful long-term improvement in either the European or US markets will be dependent on improved economic conditions and lower interest rates.

我們預計，由於當前經濟環境對客戶需求的影響，第二季末美國市場的木材價格將略有走弱。相較之下，我們預期歐洲市場價格將出現溫和上漲壓力，主要原因是鋸木價格上漲。然而，歐洲或美國市場的任何有意義的長期改善都將取決於經濟狀況的改善和利率的降低。

Now the cost competitive setup we have in Friesau gives us the flexibility to have a strong presence in Europe, the US, and the quality-sensitive Japanese market. In Q1, 39% of our lumber volume was sold in the US as we continued to optimize our mix of products and target markets to current conditions. We continue to believe that low lumber inventories, the large number of sawmill curtailments, reduced allowable cut limits, relatively low housing stock and homeowner demographics are still very strong fundamentals for the construction industry and this will put sustained positive pressure on the supply-demand balance of this business in the mid-term.

現在，我們在弗里紹擁有的成本競爭力使我們能夠靈活地在歐洲、美國和對品質敏感的日本市場佔據強勢地位。在第一季度，我們 39% 的木材銷售銷售至美國，我們繼續根據當前情況優化產品組合和目標市場。我們仍然相信，較低的木材庫存、大量的鋸木廠減產、減少的允許砍伐限額、相對較低的住房存量和房主人口統計數據仍然是建築行業非常強勁的基本面，這將在中期內對該行業的供需平衡產生持續的積極壓力。

Our shipping pallet market remains weak with pallet pricing staying flat due to the overhang of the European economy, particularly in Germany. Once the economy begins to show signs of recovery, we expect pallet prices to recover towards more historical levels allowing Torgau to deliver significant shareholder value. Heating pellet prices were up slightly in Q1 due to seasonality in this market and we expect demand and prices to be slightly lower in Q2 as warmer European temperatures take hold.

由於歐洲經濟（尤其是德國）的不景氣，我們的運輸托盤市場仍然疲軟，托盤價格保持穩定。一旦經濟開始出現復甦跡象，我們預計托盤價格將恢復至歷史水平，從而使托爾高能夠為股東帶來顯著的價值。由於市場季節性因素，第一季供暖顆粒價格略有上漲，我們預計隨著歐洲氣溫回暖，第二季需求和價格將略有下降。

As part of our objective to keep all of our pulp mills running reliably, we are planning for major maintenance shutdowns at all mills throughout the year. Our current schedule is the following: in Q1, Celgar was down for 22 days, which is longer than usual for this mill. The woodroom project is now completed and being commissioned.

為了確保所有紙漿廠可靠運行，我們計劃全年對所有工廠進行大規模停工維護。我們目前的計劃如下：第一季度，Celgar 停工 22 天，比工廠的正常停工時間要長。目前，木屋工程已竣工並投入使用。

The post-shut start-up of the mill was lower than planned and resulted in 5 days of lost production, which will impact Q2, but is now running well. In Q2, Peace River was down for 18 days as they already went through their shutdown or about 24,000 tonnes and Stendal will take a short 3-day shut or roughly 6,000 tonnes.

工廠關閉後的啟動速度低於計劃，導致生產損失了 5 天，這將影響第二季度，但目前運作良好。在第二季度，Peace River 停產 18 天，因為他們已經關閉了約 24,000 噸，而 Stendal 將短暫關閉 3 天，約 6,000 噸。

In Q3, Rosenthal will be down for 14 days or about 14,000 tonnes and Celgar will take 4 days equivalent to 5,500 tonnes. And in Q4, Stendal will be down for 18 days equivalent to 37,000 tonnes. In total, that is 79 days of planned downtime compared to 57 in '24. The increase in 2025 planned maintenance days is due to Celgar not taking any major shut in 2024 now that it is on an 18-month maintenance cycle.

第三季度，羅森塔爾將停工 14 天，約 14,000 噸，而 Celgar 將停工 4 天，約 5,500 噸。第四季度，Stendal 將停產 18 天，相當於 37,000 噸。總體而言，計劃停機時間為 79 天，而 24 年為 57 天。2025 年計畫維護天數增加的原因是，Celgar 目前處於 18 個月的維護週期，因此在 2024 年不會進行任何重大停產。

In light of recent economic uncertainty, we have reduced planned CapEx and now expect to spend about $100 million on capital projects in 2025. This capital budget is heavily weighted to maintenance, environmental and safety projects and includes both Torgau's lumber expansion project and Celgar's recently completed woodroom project.

鑑於近期經濟的不確定性，我們減少了計劃的資本支出，目前預計 2025 年在資本項目上花費約 1 億美元。此資本預算主要用於維護、環境和安全項目，包括 Torgau 的木材擴建項目和 Celgar 最近完成的木屋項目。

Torgau's project will increase the volume of dimensional lumber available for the US market by about 240,000 cubic meters annually with upgrades to the log-in feed system and the addition of more planning capacity. We expect to reach a little bit over 100,000 cubic meters already in 2025. This was envisioned as part of our original investment thesis to increase the mill's value-added product mix and maximize potential synergies.

透過升級入庫進料系統和增加更多的規劃能力，托爾高的項目將使美國市場可用的規格木材數量每年增加約 24 萬立方公尺。我們預計到 2025 年產量將達到 10 萬立方公尺多一點。這是我們最初的投資理念的一部分，旨在增加工廠的增值產品組合併最大限度地發揮潛在的協同效應。

Our new lignin extraction pilot plant at Rosenthal continues to run exceptionally well. Our product development is going according to plan. We're excited about the future prospects of this product as a sustainable alternative to fossil fuel-based products like adhesives and advanced battery elements.

我們位於羅森塔爾的新木質素萃取中試工廠繼續運作良好。我們的產品開發正在按計劃進行。我們對該產品作為黏合劑和先進電池元件等化石燃料產品的可持續替代品的未來前景感到興奮。

We believe this product can be the foundation for a profitable business segment with strong growth potential. The fundamentals of this business align perfectly with our strategy, which involves expanding into green chemicals and products that are compatible with the circular carbon economy, while adding shareholder value on our existing asset base.

我們相信該產品可以成為具有強勁成長潛力的獲利業務部門的基礎。這項業務的基本面與我們的策略完全一致，即擴展到與循環碳經濟相容的綠色化學品和產品，同時在現有資產基礎上增加股東價值。

As the world becomes more demanding about reducing carbon emissions, we believe that products like mass timber, green energy, lumber, pulp and lignin will play increasingly important roles in displacing carbon-intensive products, products like concrete and steel for construction or plastic for packaging. Furthermore, the potential demand for sustainable fossil fuel substitutes is very significant and has the potential to be transformative to the wood products industry.

隨著世界對減少碳排放的要求越來越高，我們相信，大規模木材、綠色能源、木材、紙漿和木質素等產品將在取代碳密集型產品、建築用混凝土和鋼材或包裝用塑膠等產品方面發揮越來越重要的作用。此外，對永續化石燃料替代品的潛在需求非常大，並有可能改變木製品產業。

We remain committed to our 2030 carbon reduction targets and believe our products form part of the climate change solution. In fact, we believe that demand for low-carbon products will dramatically increase as the world looks for solutions to reduce its carbon emissions. We remain bullish on the long-term value of pulp and are committed to better balance our company through growth in our lumber and mass timber businesses.

我們仍然致力於實現 2030 年的碳減排目標，並相信我們的產品是氣候變遷解決方案的一部分。事實上，我們相信，隨著世界尋求減少碳排放的解決方案，對低碳產品的需求將急劇增加。我們仍然看好紙漿的長期價值，並致力於透過木材和大規模木材業務的成長來更好地平衡公司。

I would also like to note that we're beginning a FEL-2 engineering review on the potential for a carbon capture project at our Peace River mill. We have a lot of work to do given the early stages of this review, but we're excited about the potential a project like this could have on the economics of this mill. We will publish our 2024 sustainability report in the coming weeks. I invite you to go to our website and have a look at this report as it highlights our main initiatives and our progress on our sustainability-related targets.

我還想指出，我們正在開始對 Peace River 工廠的碳捕獲項目潛力進行 FEL-2 工程審查。鑑於此次審查尚處於早期階段，我們還有很多工作要做，但我們對這樣的項目可能對該工廠的經濟效益產生的潛力感到興奮。我們將在未來幾週內發布 2024 年永續發展報告。我邀請您造訪我們的網站並查看這份報告，因為它重點介紹了我們的主要舉措以及我們在永續發展相關目標方面取得的進展。

While I'm encouraged by the softwood pulp market outlook, it's disappointing to see the overall market uncertainty that the trade war unleashes. As a result and as I noted above, I have asked our operators to focus on driving efficiency through aggressively reducing costs while enhancing reliability to strengthen our resilience and readiness for potential tariff impacts, including being ready with various tariff mitigation strategies. We remain committed to increasing shareholder value by reducing our leverage through aggressive cost reduction programs, strong mill reliability, operational realization and prudent capital management.

雖然我對軟木漿市場的前景感到鼓舞，但看到貿易戰引發的整體市場不確定性卻令人失望。因此，正如我上面提到的，我已要求我們的營運商專注於透過積極降低成本來提高效率，同時提高可靠性，以增強我們的彈性和對潛在關稅影響的準備，包括準備好各種關稅緩解策略。我們將繼續致力於透過積極的成本削減計劃、強大的工廠可靠性、營運實現和審慎的資本管理來降低我們的槓桿率，從而提高股東價值。

Thanks for listening, and I will now turn the call back to the operator for questions. Thank you.

感謝您的聆聽，現在我將把電話轉回給接線員以回答問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Sandy Burns, Stifel.

（操作員指示）Sandy Burns，Stifel。

I was wondering, on slides 9 and 10, you mentioned exposure in the form of secondary effects and you are starting to see some negative impact on pricing in some markets. I was hoping you could elaborate on those bullet points, those comments a little bit more?

我想知道，在第 9 張和第 10 張投影片上，您提到了以次生效應形式出現的曝光，並且您開始看到對某些市場定價的一些負面影響。我希望您能更詳細地闡述這些要點和評論？

Yeah, absolutely, Sandy. The secondary effects when we talk about tariffs is basically related to things like the weakening of the US dollar. We're seeing also, which obviously is evident for us, it impacts all our cost basis out of Europe and out of Canada as well as our cash balances. And then when you look at demand in China, particularly, there has been quite a slowdown in the last few days.

是的，絕對如此，桑迪。當我們談論關稅時，其次要影響基本上與美元疲軟等因素有關。我們也看到，這對我們來說顯然是顯而易見的，它影響了我們在歐洲和加拿大以外的所有成本基礎以及我們的現金餘額。然後，當你觀察中國的需求時，你會發現過去幾天的需求已經明顯放緩。

Now they're going through a long weekend holiday. It's a 5-day holiday. We'll see how the reaction is when they return from holiday, but there's been a halt in buying in China. And obviously, that has put pressure on prices, more significantly on hardwood than on softwood, but still, we don't know if it's a one-off, if it's something that will be recovered after they come back from the holidays.

現在他們正在享受一個長週末假期。這是一個5天的假期。我們將看看他們度假回來後的反應，但中國的購買活動已經停止了。顯然，這給價格帶來了壓力，硬木價格的壓力比軟木價格更大，但我們仍然不知道這是否是一次性的，還是假期過後價格會恢復。

But obviously, we see that this all uncertainty the tariffs coming in, coming out is just making people a little bit cautious about building inventories or having stuff shipped around the globe, not knowing when they arrive whether they're going to be subject to a different tariff or something different. So I think that's the comment around those collateral effects or indirect impacts that the tariffs are having.

但顯然，我們看到關稅的不確定性，這讓人們對建立庫存或將貨物運往全球各地變得有點謹慎，不知道貨物到達時是否會受到不同的關稅或其他影響。所以我認為這是有關關稅產生的附帶影響或間接影響的評論。

Okay, great. That was helpful. And second and last one for me. You did mention how given your typical lag in market pulp prices versus your realizations, your realizations were down a little bit this quarter versus the market prices up. I guess, we still got two months left in the quarter, and you said in an uncertain pricing environment. But is there anything else that we should be thinking about positively or negatively in those first quarter price increases impacting your second quarter realizations?

好的，太好了。這很有幫助。對我來說這是第二個也是最後一個。您確實提到過，鑑於市場紙漿價格與實現價格之間的典型滯後，本季度您的實現價格與市場價格相比略有下降。我想，本季還剩兩個月，而您說的是定價環境不確定。但是，第一季的價格上漲對第二季的實現有何影響，我們還應該從正面或負面的角度考慮什麼嗎？

We don't see necessarily a big delta there. I think there's going to be more positive than negative when it comes to pulp prices when you compare Q2 with Q1. And even lumber, also because there's a lag, even though we've seen some relatively softness -- a relative softness in lumber in the last few weeks, it takes a while for that to be dialed into the shipments. So my interpretation is that Q2 will be positive on prices for both pulp and lumber when compared to Q1.

我們並不認為那裡會出現很大的差異。我認為，如果將第二季與第一季進行比較，紙漿價格的正面影響將大於負面影響。甚至木材，也因為存在滯後，儘管我們看到了一些相對疲軟——過去幾週木材價格相對疲軟，但需要一段時間才能反映到出貨量中。因此，我的解讀是，與第一季相比，第二季的紙漿和木材價格都將呈現正態勢。

Sean Steuart, TD Cowen.

肖恩·斯圖爾特（Sean Steuart），TD Cowen。

A couple of questions. The cost savings objectives of $100 million by the end of 2026, can you give us some specific context on cost buckets, productivity improvement targets, specific assets that you're looking at there? And any context on the cadence of those costs flowing through over the next two years?

有幾個問題。到 2026 年底，成本節約目標為 1 億美元，您能否向我們提供一些有關成本範圍、生產力改進目標以及您正在關注的具體資產的具體背景資訊？能介紹一下未來兩年這些成本的流動節奏嗎？

Absolutely, Sean, good question. On the cost reduction program or the profitability enhancement program that we have launched, first of all, we started on it in the very beginning of the year. And since then, we've been able to already capture quite a bit of indication of where the buckets or where the opportunities lie.

絕對的，肖恩，這個問題問得好。關於我們推出的成本削減計劃或盈利能力提升計劃，首先，我們在年初就開始實施了。從那時起，我們已經能夠捕捉到相當多關於儲存桶在哪裡或機會在哪裡的跡象。

Now this program, as I mentioned, is company-wide. And we've obviously put a lot more emphasis on those assets that are in a weaker situation from a cash perspective. So assets like Torgau will have a much more dramatic turnaround from that perspective, just as Peace River. And we're looking at all aspects, whether it's matting, whether it's logistic costs, handling or overhandling of fiber, looking at every single detail that would allow us to identify opportunities for reduction.

正如我所提到的，這個專案是全公司範圍的。我們顯然更加重視那些從現金角度來看狀況較弱的資產。因此，從這個角度來看，托爾高 (Torgau) 等資產將出現更為顯著的轉變，就像 Peace River 一樣。我們正在研究所有方面，無論是墊子、物流成本、纖維處理或過度處理，研究每一個細節，以便我們發現減少的機會。

Just as well, we're doing a similar exercise in the other mills that are running extremely well, whether it's Stendal or Celgar or Rosenthal or Friesau. We've done also our restructuring already in mass timber. So there's a lot of things that are already underway.

同樣，我們也在其他運作良好的工廠進行了類似的演習，無論是 Stendal 還是 Celgar、Rosenthal 還是 Friesau。我們已經對大量木材進行了重組。所以很多事情已經在進行中了。

When you look at the $100 million overall, I believe that we should be able to get maybe $40 million or $50 million already in 2025 when we compile everything that we are -- have already done plus the things that are in progress. And then the balance would be coming next year.

如果從整體來看這 1 億美元，我相信到 2025 年，當我們把所有已經完成的工作以及正在進行的工作匯總起來時，我們應該能夠獲得 4000 萬或 5000 萬美元。然後平衡將會在明年到來。

Okay. Thanks a lot for the detail. And then just a follow-up on your pulp market outlook, and I appreciate everything you're saying for the second quarter with relative resilience in North America and Europe. I guess, through the latter half of the year, though, with China looking like it might be cracking, they're the dominant buyer globally, perspective on the ability to hold pricing for this industry in North America and Europe if China rolls over? Any perspective on what you're seeing for customer inventories in those markets? I guess, a broader perspective on how resilient those markets could be if China does weaken through the summer?

好的。非常感謝您的詳細資訊。然後，我想跟進您對紙漿市場的展望，我很欣賞您對第二季北美和歐洲相對彈性的預測。我想，到今年下半年，中國可能會崩潰，他們是全球的主要買家，如果中國轉變態度，那麼他們是否有能力在北美和歐洲維持這個產業的定價？您對這些市場的客戶庫存有何看法？我想，如果中國經濟在夏季確實走弱，那麼從更廣泛的角度來看，這些市場將具有怎樣的彈性？

Absolutely, Sean. In that respect, there's an element that comes into play, which is very relevant at this point in time and it is tariffs. When you look at the European pulp that flows into the US, well, that is now taxed or tariff, excuse me.

當然，肖恩。在這方面，有一個因素在發揮作用，這在目前非常重要，那就是關稅。當你看到流入美國的歐洲紙漿時，嗯，現在這些紙漿是要徵稅或徵收關稅的，對不起。

So that opens an opportunity for us in -- from Canada to become more competitive than the Europeans, which is something that obviously we are going to take advantage of because that allows us to ship products down south rather than across the ocean into China. So we are already moving our pieces so that we can have a bigger flow into the US than what we normally do. So it basically opens an opportunity for us in that regard.

因此，這為我們在加拿大變得比歐洲人更有競爭力提供了一個機會，顯然我們會利用這一點，因為這使我們能夠將產品運往南方，而不是跨越海洋進入中國。因此，我們已經開始行動，以便能夠有比平常更多的貨物流入美國。因此，這實際上為我們在這方面提供了機會。

Now as it comes to the price sustainability itself, what we believe is that still the supply situation for softwood is pretty constrained. That hasn't changed. And that is the biggest element that we believe will help keep the prices for softwood at levels similar to what we're seeing today. I don't expect any -- if there's any flip right now, I don't expect that flip to be sustained over time precisely due to those constraints on supply.

現在談到價格永續性本身，我們認為軟木的供應情況仍然相當受限。這一點沒有改變。我們認為，這是有助於將軟木價格維持在與今天相似的水平的最大因素。我並不期望有任何轉變——如果現在有任何轉變，我並不認為這種轉變會長期持續下去，正是由於供應方面的限制。

And the other thing that we need to cautious about is that overall, there's -- globally, there's still a lot of pressure from a fiber perspective, which obviously, as the cost of producing pulp goes up due to fiber going up, obviously, that puts even more stress on not allowing the prices to go down.

我們需要注意的另一件事是，總體而言，從全球來看，從纖維角度來看仍然存在很大的壓力，顯然，由於纖維價格上漲導致紙漿生產成本上升，這顯然給價格下跌帶來了更大的壓力。

Even more, if you add the currency impact on it, then there's another effect right there, because as you think of whether we're in Canada buying fiber in Canadian dollars or in Europe buying fiber in euros, obviously, those costs go up in US terms with the devaluation of the US dollar, which again puts a limit on how much the producers are willing to let their prices go down when their costs are already going up.

更重要的是，如果再加上貨幣影響，那麼就會有另一種效果，因為無論我們是用加拿大元購買纖維，還是用歐元購買歐洲纖維，顯然，隨著美元貶值，這些成本以美元計算都會上升，這又限制了生產商在成本已經上漲的情況下願意降價的幅度。

So I think those are the elements that would allow us to believe that prices will tend to hold for the remainder of the year.

所以我認為這些因素讓我們相信價格在今年剩餘時間內將保持穩定。

That's great context. Just one follow-up there. The incremental volume you would move into the states, is that spot market activity? Are you able to contract that volume? How should we think about, I guess, relative discounts for what might be in the United States and Canada?

這是非常好的背景。僅此一次後續行動。您轉移到美國的增量量是現貨市場活動嗎？你能縮小那個體積嗎？我想，我們應該如何考慮美國和加拿大的相對折扣？

That's spot market activity. There are opportunities that we can take advantage of, and obviously, we will do. And that's -- when you look at our -- the way that we've dealt our business in Europe versus North America, it is different in that regard. Like most, if not all of our business in Europe is contracted. In the case of our North American mills, that is not the case. We have played traditionally a lot in the spot market. And yes, we have some contracts, but we used to play very much the market depending on what is more convenient to us.

這就是現貨市場活動。我們可以利用這些機會，而且顯然我們會這樣做。如果你看一下我們在歐洲和北美處理業務的方式，你會發現它們在這方面有所不同。就像大多數（如果不是全部）我們在歐洲的業務一樣，都是簽訂了合約的。就我們的北美工廠而言，情況並非如此。我們在現貨市場上有很多傳統的玩法。是的，我們有一些合同，但是我們過去常常根據對我們來說更方便的方式在市場上進行交易。

Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的馬修麥凱勒 (Matthew McKellar)。

First for me, if we do see meaningful Section 232 tariffs introduced by the US, how would you expect the lumber market to evolve both in the US and in Europe? And what kind of mitigation options would you have in this scenario?

首先，對我來說，如果美國確實實施了有意義的第 232 條關稅，您認為美國和歐洲的木材市場將如何發展？在這種情況下，您會採取哪些緩解措施？

Yes, Matthew. One of the things that we see in that regard is that before those tariffs come into effect, assuming that it's November, if they come into effect, and we have no idea if it's going to be 25% or nothing or 10%, who knows?

是的，馬修。我們在這方面看到的情況之一是，在這些關稅生效之前，假設是在 11 月，如果它們生效，我們不知道關稅是 25% 還是零，還是 10%，誰知道呢？

Between now and then, the countervailing duties in Canada are going to grow significantly. And that is already a known fact. They will grow from an average of 14% to about 30%. So that will favor competitively, let's put it, our fiber or lumber coming out of Germany. So we intend to basically capitalize on that opportunity that will happen regardless.

從現在到那時，加拿大的反補貼稅將會大幅增加。這已經是眾所周知的事實。它們將從平均14%增加到30%左右。因此，這將有利於我們的纖維或木材從德國出口。因此，我們打算從根本上利用這個無論如何都會出現的機會。

We know that, that is something that will come out in November or maybe sooner. The speculation is that it should be probably earlier than that. But again, since the Canadian lumber is going to be impacted already in a very significant way, the competitiveness of our product out of Friesau will increase by default. So that won't necessarily force us to move or change geographies for -- or destinations for our products. We are preparing Torgau as well. Torgau is starting to produce plain lumber, as I mentioned.

我們知道，這個消息將會在十一月或更早的時候發布。據推測，這個時間可能比這還要早。但是，由於加拿大木材已經受到非常嚴重的影響，弗里索產品的競爭力自然會增強。因此，這並不一定迫使我們搬遷或改變產品的地理位置或目的地。我們也正在準備托爾高。正如我所提到的，托爾高開始生產普通木材。

That was part of the initial thesis when we acquired the mill, not for it to be a pallet mill, but to gradually become a lumber mill. This is becoming a reality as we speak. And that market or one of the markets that we're aiming for that product is precisely the US market. It is a complementary product to what we already have in Friesau.

這是我們收購工廠時的最初想法的一部分，我們不是想把它打造成一個托盤廠，而是想逐漸把它打造成一個木材廠。正如我們所說，這正在成為現實。而這個市場，或者說我們針對該產品的市場之一，正是美國市場。它是我們在弗里紹已有產品的補充產品。

So those two combined go very well together with our customers. So that's the way that we see it. We don't see right now a situation where we would need to divert our product to different geographies, again, on the back of the fact that Canadian lumber will be less competitive by itself, unfortunately, due to the countervailing tariffs.

因此，這兩者結合起來對我們的客戶來說非常有利。這就是我們的看法。目前，我們還沒有看到需要將產品轉移到不同地區的情況，同樣，由於反補貼關稅，加拿大木材本身的競爭力將會下降。

Great. And then last for me, you made some comments around how you think softwood to hardwood substitution will be limited from here with lots already having played out. Do you have any, I guess, perspective you can share around in what end markets, either by product or geography that substitution story is further along versus where maybe there's further left to right?

偉大的。最後，您發表了一些評論，關於您認為從現在起軟木到硬木的替代將是有限的，而且許多替代已經發生。我想，您是否可以分享一些觀點，關於哪些終端市場（無論是按產品還是按地理位置）的替代故事更為深入，而哪些市場可能從左到右？

Absolutely. And this is something when you think about it, substitution is a concept that you've heard around for years. It's not something new. It's something that every time there's a price increase or a gap between the two fibers, we all talk about substitution. And yes, all customers, whether in specialties or tissue, they all try to push their furnaces to the limit to see how far they can go.

絕對地。如果你仔細想想，你會發現替代是一個你多年來一直聽說的概念。這並不是什麼新鮮事。每當兩種纖維的價格上漲或出現差距時，我們都會談論替代品。是的，所有客戶，無論是特種行業還是紙巾行業，他們都在嘗試將熔爐推向極限，看看它能走多遠。

We've talked to customers openly about it. And we always ask the question, how far are you in your substitution scale? Can you do more? Do you think that's what you've done is about it? And the answer that we get is the vast majority of what we could have done, we already did, and we did it several years ago. And we keep on adding at it little by little every time, but it's just small pieces here and there.

我們已經與客戶公開討論過此事。我們總是會問這樣一個問題：你的替代程度達到什麼程度了？你能做得更多嗎？您認為您所做的就是這件事嗎？我們得到的答案是，我們本來可以做的絕大多數事情我們已經做了，而且幾年前就做了。我們每次都會一點一點地添加，但只是這裡或那裡的一些小塊。

And this goes whether it's tissue or specialties because those are the markets where we play the most on right now. And yes, the answers that we get directly from them is what I just shared. Most of it has been done. Anything that is done right now is a little bit on top of it, but it's not a game changer. It's not something significant.

無論是紙巾還是特種產品，情況都是如此，因為這些都是我們目前投入最多的市場。是的，我們直接從他們那裡得到的答案就是我剛才分享的。大部分已經完成了。現在所做的任何事情都只是稍微超出了一點，但它不會改變遊戲規則。這不是什麼重要的事。

Cole Hathorn, Jefferies.

科爾·哈索恩，傑富瑞集團。

I'd just like your views on some of the raw material costs. You talked about sawlog costs going up kind of 10% in the Germany region. I'm just wondering, are you seeing kind of same sawlog costs as well as kind of wood chip and pulpwood costs or there's a diverging dynamic that you're seeing to your sawmills versus your pulp mills?

我只是想聽聽您對一些原材料成本的看法。您談到德國地區的鋸木成本上漲了 10%。我只是想知道，您是否看到鋸木成本以及木片和紙漿木材成本相同，或者您是否看到鋸木廠和紙漿廠的成本存在分歧？

And then I'd like to follow-up on the price stability that you're calling out in Europe and North America versus China. What do you think will help support that price stability in Europe versus China at this stage in softwood or even hardwood pulp, if you have a view there? Thank you.

然後我想跟進一下您所提到的歐洲和北美相對於中國的價格穩定性。如果您有看法，您認為現階段什麼將有助於維持歐洲相對於中國的針葉木或硬木紙漿價格穩定？謝謝。

Perfect. Thank you, Cole. Well, first of all, to your first question on the fiber cost increases, what we've seen is that the impact that we expect in Q2 versus Q1, that 10% increase, it's even more in the case of Torgau than anything else and a bit on Friesau.

完美的。謝謝你，科爾。嗯，首先，關於光纖成本上漲的第一個問題，我們看到的是，我們預計第二季度相對於第一季度的影響是 10% 的增長，在托爾高地區的影響比其他地區更大，在弗里索地區的影響也略有增加。

But it is on basically created by the fact that there is less calamity wood to be harvested while the demand is still normal. So you have a kind of unbalanced situation because you have a lesser amount of wood being harvested, and therefore, obviously, a push in prices.

但這主要是因為災木砍伐量減少，而需求量尚在正常水準。因此，就會出現一種不平衡的局面，因為採伐的木材數量較少，因此，價格顯然會上漲。

The difference between Torgau and Friesau is given by the mix of products that we have. Obviously, the Torgau -- the quality of Torgau now is increasing because we were used to produce and buy lower quality wood because we were producing only pallets. And now we're buying higher quality wood because we're producing lumber. So therefore, we are going to see just by that effect, a higher increase or relative increase in Torgau than we do in Friesau.

托爾高和弗里索之間的差異在於我們擁有的產品組合。顯然，托爾高——托爾高的品質現在正在提高，因為我們過去只生產托盤，所以習慣於生產和購買質量較低的木材。現在我們購買更高品質的木材，因為我們生產木材。因此，我們將看到，僅憑這種影響，托爾高的增幅或相對增幅將高於弗里紹。

Both of them are going up for the reasons that I just mentioned that there's less wood being harvested, but it shows more on Torgau because now we're producing lumber on top of pallets and just the quality of the lumber is required for that is different. In the case of our fiber costs for the pulp mills, we basically don't see any dramatic changes. We were considering them basically flat across the quarter. Maybe a very small increase in Rosenthal on chips, but very little, so less than 5%. But all in all, it's basically, I would say, for pulp, it's going to be relatively flat.

這兩個價格都在上漲，原因就是我剛才提到的採伐的木材減少了，但托爾高的情況更為明顯，因為現在我們在托盤上生產木材，而對木材的品質要求就不同了。就紙漿廠的纖維成本而言，我們基本上沒有看到任何劇烈的變化。我們認為它們在整個季度基本持平。羅森塔爾晶片的增幅可能很小，但很少，所以不到 5%。但總而言之，我想說，對於紙漿來說，它基本上會相對平坦。

And to your second point on pulp price stability, I would repeat a little bit of the comments made earlier. I think what we believe would hold that stability in Europe and in the US or North America is precisely the supply situation.

關於紙漿價格穩定性的第二點，我想重複之前的一些評論。我認為，我們認為能夠維持歐洲、美國或北美穩定的正是供應狀況。

And right now, one of the things that I think is on the back of everybody is particularly those that are European producers is the fact that with the -- again, with the currency changes, some of those costs have raised. If there's pulp moving from Europe into the US, that pulp is now being tariffed.

而現在，我認為每個人，特別是歐洲生產商，都面臨的一個問題是，隨著貨幣的變化，部分成本已經上升。如果有紙漿從歐洲運往美國，那麼這些紙漿現在就要被徵收關稅。

So there's additional elements that would make the Europeans that -- or some of the Europeans that were already concerned about their cost structure. We have seen already closures of mills in Finland late last year, just as we saw in Canada, we don't believe there's any relief from a cost perspective to them. If anything, I think it's -- with all this tariff situation, it's just got a bit more complicated.

因此，還有其他因素會讓歐洲人——或者一些歐洲人——擔心他們的成本結構。正如我們在加拿大看到的那樣，去年年底我們已經看到芬蘭的工廠關閉，我們認為從成本角度來看這不會給他們帶來任何緩解。如果有什麼不同的話，我認為——由於所有這些關稅情況，事情變得更加複雜了。

And therefore, we believe that, that weakness of supply is still going to be a significant element in the outcome of whatever we see pricewise. And that's what our theory on why pulp prices should remain relatively stable.

因此，我們認為，供應疲軟仍將是影響價格趨勢的重要因素。這就是我們關於紙漿價格應保持相對穩定的理論。

And then maybe just as a follow-up on China softwood futures, we've seen a step down. But to the point you were making around the European cost base that shifted up, I mean, wood costs in the Nordic region are elevated. Now they've got FX challenges considering your production base is in euros versus your sales prices in dollars. But the China softwood futures has moved lower and you're a big supplier to that region from Canada.

然後也許只是對中國軟木期貨的後續關注，我們看到了下降。但關於您提到的歐洲成本基礎上升，我的意思是北歐地區的木材成本上升了。現在他們面臨外匯挑戰，因為你們的生產基礎是歐元，而銷售價格是美元。但中國軟木期貨價格已經走低，而你們是加拿大該地區的重要供應商。

And I'm just wondering, is there anything that you think might be impacting the softwood futures like more supply coming out of Russia or ability to settle with some of the Russian softwood pulp. I'm just wondering if there's any dynamics that might be impacting either the domestic China resale or the China futures prices, because at $700 a tonne, I suppose you're kind of into the cost curve. I'm just wondering if there's anything that you can highlight there?

我只是想知道，您認為有什麼因素可能會影響軟木期貨，例如來自俄羅斯的供應增加或解決部分俄羅斯軟木漿的能力。我只是想知道是否存在可能影響中國國內轉售或中國期貨價格的動態，因為以每噸 700 美元的價格，我想你已經進入了成本曲線。我只是想知道您是否可以強調一下？

I think you hit it on the head, Cole, because Russian fiber flows, particularly in the exchange in China, is probably the most relevant fiber that is out there. And we know that it's the lower quality of all, and therefore, very difficult to compare that with prime Canadian fiber for that matter or European. So I think -- I do believe, just as you said, that the major factor creating that on balance on those futures is, in fact, Russian fiber. And it is not new.

科爾，我認為你說到了點子上，因為俄羅斯的光纖流通，特別是在中國的交易所，可能是目前最相關的光纖。我們知道它的品質較低，因此很難與優質加拿大纖維或歐洲纖維進行比較。所以我認為——我確實相信，正如你所說，總體而言，造成這些期貨價格波動的主要因素實際上是俄羅斯纖維。這並不是什麼新鮮事。

When you look back a year, when you look back over the last several months, that has been a predominant element of discussion when it comes to the futures market, the fact that it's so much heavy on Russian fiber being the one being transacted, the one being -- the one that is actually playing a big part in that market.

當你回顧一年，當你回顧過去幾個月，這一直是期貨市場討論的主要內容，事實上，俄羅斯纖維在期貨市場中佔有很大的比重，因為俄羅斯纖維是期貨交易中的一個重要組成部分，它實際上在期貨市場中發揮著重要作用。

So maybe if I lead you on from there, I probably shouldn't assume that the import price necessarily matches to the futures price or necessarily the domestic China retail price. There's potentially a gap where the import prices is a bit higher.

因此，如果我從那裡引導你，我可能不應該假設進口價格一定與期貨價格相匹配，或者一定與中國國內零售價格相符。進口價格可能存在略高的差距。

I agree.

我同意。

Cole, it's Rich here. One other thing to think about is with the weakening US dollar, the Chinese buyers will have -- they want a little bit more buying power as well.

科爾，我是里奇。另一件需要考慮的事情是，隨著美元走弱，中國買家也希望擁有更強的購買力。

(Operator Instructions) Roger Spitz, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）美國銀行的羅傑·斯皮茨。

Can you please remind us what was the EBITDA impact of the 2024 pulp mill turnarounds? You had 57 days downtime last year.

您能否提醒我們 2024 年紙漿廠轉虧為盈對 EBITDA 的影響為何？去年您有 57 天的停機時間。

So Roger, do you want that a total impact?

那麼羅傑，你想要產生全面的影響力嗎？

Yeah. Where I'm going with in this line of question is I'm trying to get a sense of how many -- what's the EBITDA impact of a day of turnaround? Like Celgar, that was $1.35 million turnaround. Now one of the questions I'll ask you is, obviously, not all turnarounds are the same and some are more expensive, some are less expensive. But I'm trying to get a rule of thumb to think about the impact of prior turnarounds and downtimes and how they impact your EBITDA?

是的。我提出這個問題的目的是想了解一天的周轉對 EBITDA 的影響有多大？和 Celgar 一樣，其獲利額為 135 萬美元。現在我要問您的一個問題是，顯然，並非所有的轉變都是一樣的，有些更昂貴，有些則更便宜。但我試圖透過經驗法則來思考先前的周轉和停工的影響以及它們如何影響您的 EBITDA？

Okay. Well, the rule of thumb is about, call it, $1.5 million a day. You can test that because last year's total impact was about $80 million.

好的。嗯，根據經驗，每天大約 150 萬美元。您可以對此進行測試，因為去年的總影響約為 8000 萬美元。

Perfect. And I know these turnarounds are planned way ahead of time, do you have days of turnaround for 2026 yet?

完美的。我知道這些轉變都是事先規劃好的，您是否已經為 2026 年做好了轉變的準備？

We do not, no.

我們沒有，沒有。

We do not. But for example, as we have some mills that are on an 18-month cycle, if we do the Stendal shut in 2024 in late 2025, we shouldn't have a shutdown in '26.

我們沒有。但是，例如，由於我們的一些工廠的周期為 18 個月，如果我們在 2024 年或 2025 年底關閉 Stendal，那麼我們不應該在 2026 年關閉。

Got it. So Stendal is also 18 months?

知道了。那麼 Stendal 也是 18 個月嗎？

Yes, Stendal is on 18 months just as Celgar is on 18 months.

是的，Stendal 和 Celgar 都是 18 個月。

And how about -- could you remind me on Rosenthal and Peace River? How many months?

那麼—您能提醒我羅森塔爾和和平河嗎？幾月？

Peace River is on 12 and as well as Rosenthal.

和平河 (Peace River) 和羅森塔爾 (Rosenthal) 位於 12 號。

Got it. Is there -- are those assets set-up or with money you can set them up so you can get them on an 18-month turnaround cycle?

知道了。有沒有——這些資產是否已經設置好，或者您可以用錢來設置它們，以便您可以在 18 個月的周轉週期內獲得它們？

It is an objective, but it depends on, first of all, something that we need to review. It's obviously important that we check how the recovery boiler is behaving. That's one of the major pieces of equipment that we -- that determines whether you can stretch it or not stretch it. We talk to our insurance companies to make sure that they're comfortable with it. If they're not comfortable with it, obviously, we cannot go forward.

這是一個目標，但首先取決於我們需要審查的事情。檢查回收鍋爐的運作顯然非常重要。這是我們的主要設備之一——它決定了您是否可以拉伸它。我們與保險公司進行了溝通，以確保他們對此感到滿意。如果他們對此感到不舒服，顯然我們就無法繼續前進。

So it goes without saying that it is quite a bit of an exercise to demonstrate, particularly to the insurance companies that we can go to 18 months. And if we have the get-go from -- the green light from them, then we pursue it to that effect. And it is something that we obviously want to do in our mills and we've achieved already two of them and we keep on working on the other two as well.

因此，毋庸置疑，我們需要進行大量的工作來證明，特別是向保險公司證明我們可以延長 18 個月。如果我們得到了他們的批准，我們就會繼續努力。這顯然是我們想在我們的工廠裡做的事情，我們已經實現了其中兩個目標，我們也繼續努力實現另外兩個目標。

One more on this line of questioning. I know particularly in Germany for other kinds of operations, there's, I don't know what the word is, stipulated turnarounds. That's not the right word. But I don't know how does it work in Germany for pulp mills? Are there, whatever you call it, stipulated turnarounds or --?

關於這一類的問題，我再問一個。我知道，特別是在德國，對於其他類型的操作，有“規定的周轉時間”，我不知道這個詞是什麼。這不是正確的字眼。但我不知道德國的紙漿廠是如何運作的呢？是否有規定週轉時間，無論你如何稱呼它，或者--？

Did you mean regulations that require like regulations? Is that what you mean, Roger?

您指的是要求類似規定的法規嗎？羅傑，你是這個意思嗎？

Right. Regulations that say -- I'm using the wrong words here, I can't remember the right word. But I know that in like the chemical industry, it's written into law that you have to take a turnaround over a certain -- every periodic period like 12 months or 18 months or maybe 3 years or whatever it is for that particular operation. I just don't know whether that's the case in Germany for a pulp mill or not.

正確的。規定說——我在這裡用錯了詞，我記不起正確的詞了。但我知道，在化學工業中，法律規定你必須在一定的週期內進行週轉——每個週期例如 12 個月或 18 個月或 3 年，或者對於特定的操作來說，無論多長時間。我只是不知道德國的紙漿工廠是否也是如此。

Yeah, Roger. So I guess, the answer is no. I mean, these are high pressure vessels that we're dealing with, and obviously, there's a ton of regulations around them. But like, for example, Stendal is on an 18-month cycle. So we met -- whatever rules are in place there, we managed to work with the regulators and get the green light. So there's no reason why we couldn't do that with Rosenthal provided, as Juan Carlos said, we have -- meet all the requirements around the different boilers.

是的，羅傑。所以我猜答案是否定的。我的意思是，我們處理的是高壓容器，顯然，它們周圍有大量的法規。但是，例如，Stendal 的周期為 18 個月。因此，無論那裡有什麼規則，我們都設法與監管機構合作並獲得批准。因此，正如胡安·卡洛斯所說，我們沒有理由不能與羅森塔爾一起做到這一點，我們已經滿足了不同鍋爐的所有要求。

And to complement that, Roger, even though in the case of, for example, take Celgar, which went through that longer shut or Stendal, in the year that they don't have that shut because they're in the -- enjoying, let's say, the valley of the 18 months, we normally have a small one. So they normally stop for 3 or 4 days rather than the normal 2 weeks or whatever. So it's not that we don't do anything at all during that year that they have a free ride, no. There's usually a 3- to 4-day shut for other related matters that is always scheduled.

為了補充這一點，羅傑，即使以塞爾加（Celgar）為例，它經歷了更長時間的關閉，或者以施滕達爾（Stendal）為例，在他們沒有關閉的那一年，因為他們正處於 - 享受，比如說，18 個月的低谷，我們通常會有一個小的低谷。因此他們通常會停留 3 或 4 天，而不是正常的 2 週或其他時間。所以，並不是說我們在那一年裡什麼都不做，他們就可以免費搭車了，不是的。通常會有 3 到 4 天的停工時間，用於處理其他相關事宜。

Jim Cox, PPM America.

吉姆‧考克斯 (Jim Cox)，PPM 美國公司。

Sorry, Roger just asked the questions about the downtime that I was going to ask. Thanks.

抱歉，羅傑剛才問了我想問的有關停機時間的問題。謝謝。

Cole Hathorn, Jefferies.

科爾·哈索恩，傑富瑞集團。

I'd just like to ask around, are you seeing any change in order patterns from your pulp customers, either on the tissue side or into various end markets? And the reason I ask is because obviously, with US tariffs, I'm just wondering if there's some front-running and consumers stocked up in the US.

我只是想問一下，您是否發現紙漿客戶的訂單模式有任何變化，無論是在紙巾方面還是在各個終端市場？我之所以問這個問題，顯然是因為美國徵收了關稅，我只是想知道美國是否有搶先購買和消費者囤貨的情況。

And then maybe on the European side, we're also seeing very big divergence between what the consumer staples businesses are calling out from a demand perspective that's most relevant in the box market, right? Europe is up 2% to 3% and the US is down 2%. So I'm just wondering if there's any difference in customer stock levels or order patterns that are relevant? If not, I completely understand.

然後也許在歐洲方面，我們也看到消費必需品企業從與盒子市場最相關的需求角度所呼籲的內容之間存在很大分歧，對嗎？歐洲上漲2%至3%，美國下跌2%。所以我只是想知道客戶庫存水準或訂單模式是否有相關差異？如果沒有，我完全理解。

So far, Cole, we haven't experienced anything that would be impactful in either Europe or North America. In Europe, I think just the sole fact that it's mostly contract-based and that our customers usually follow their contracts and their deliveries are scheduled from the beginning of the year. Yes, we're not seeing any slowdown or any change at this point in time.

科爾，到目前為止，我們還沒有經歷任何會對歐洲或北美產生影響的事情。在歐洲，我認為唯一的事實是它主要是基於合約的，我們的客戶通常遵守合同，並且他們的交貨安排從年初開始。是的，目前我們沒有看到任何放緩或變化。

The only impact that we're seeing or the only effect that we're seeing is what I mentioned earlier around China that there's clearly something there around slowing down or checking or trying to figure out how to move forward. But no, in the case of Europe or even North America, we haven't seen much, at least that impact us, no. Again, the only -- I would repeat myself, the only thing that we've seen is an opportunity for our Canadian pulp into the US that we want to capitalize on. But that's about it.

我們所看到的唯一影響或我們看到的唯一效果是我之前提到的中國，那裡顯然存在一些放緩或檢查或試圖弄清楚如何前進的情況。但就歐洲甚至北美而言，我們並沒有看到太多影響，至少沒有。再說一遍，唯一的——我想重複一遍，我們看到的唯一機會就是將我們的加拿大紙漿打入美國，我們想利用這個機會。但僅此而已。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Juan Carlos. Thank you.

今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給胡安·卡洛斯。謝謝。

Okay. Thank you, Lacy, and thanks to all of you for joining our call. Rich and I are available to talk more at any time. So don't hesitate to call one of us. Otherwise, we look forward to speaking to you again on our next earnings call in August. Bye for now.

好的。謝謝你，Lacy，也謝謝大家參加我們的電話會議。我和 Rich 隨時可以進行進一步交談。所以不要猶豫，打電話給我們吧。否則，我們期待在八月的下一次收益電話會議上再次與您交談。暫時再見。

That concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。