Mercer International Inc (MERC) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Mercer International's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call today is Juan Carlos Bueno, President and Chief Executive Officer of Mercer International; and Robert [Richard] Short, CFO and Secretary. I will now hand the call over to Richard Short.

早安，歡迎參加美世國際 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議由美世國際總裁兼執行長胡安·卡洛斯·布埃諾 (Juan Carlos Bueno) 主持。財務長兼秘書羅伯特·[理查德]·肖特。我現在將把電話轉給理查德·肖特。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I'll begin by touching on the financial and operating highlights of the second quarter before turning the call over to Juan Carlos to provide further color into the markets, our operations and our strategic initiatives. Also for those of you that have joined the call today by telephone, there is presentation material that we have attached to the Investors section of our website.

大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。我將首先介紹第二季度的財務和營運亮點，然後將電話轉給胡安·卡洛斯，以進一步介紹市場、我們的營運和我們的策略舉措。另外，對於今天透過電話參加電話會議的人來說，我們已在我們網站的投資者部分附加了簡報資料。

Before turning to our results, I would like to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements in this morning's conference call. According to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, I'd like to call your attention to the risks related to these statements, which are more fully described in our press release and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在討論我們的結果之前，我想提醒您，我們將在今天早上的電話會議中發表前瞻性聲明。根據1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款，我想提請您注意與這些聲明相關的風險，這些風險在我們的新聞稿以及公司向證券和證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了更全面的描述。

This quarter, our EBITDA totaled $30 million compared to Q1's EBITDA of $64 million. The lower results were driven by 37 days of planned major maintenance downtime split between two mills compared to no downtime in Q1. We estimate the planned downtime adversely impacted our EBITDA by approximately $60 million.

本季度，我們的 EBITDA 總額為 3,000 萬美元，而第一季的 EBITDA 為 6,400 萬美元。業績較低的原因是兩家工廠計劃進行 37 天的重大維護停機，而第一季沒有停機。我們估計計劃內的停機對我們的 EBITDA 產生了約 6000 萬美元的不利影響。

After adjusting for the planned maintenance downtime impact, the improved operating results were primarily driven by higher pulp sales realizations. Our pulp segment contributed quarterly EBITDA of $32 million, and our solid wood segment contributed quarterly EBITDA of $3 million. You can find additional segment disclosures in our Form 10-Q, which can be found on our website and the SEC's.

在調整計畫維護停機影響後，經營績效的改善主要是由於紙漿銷售收入的增加所致。我們的紙漿部門貢獻了 3,200 萬美元的季度 EBITDA，我們的實木部門貢獻了 300 萬美元的季度 EBITDA。您可以在我們的 10-Q 表格中找到其他分部披露信息，該表格可以在我們的網站和 SEC 的網站上找到。

Strong demand for pulp in Q2, combined with softwood supply interruptions in Finland pushed prices higher than Q1 in all our major markets. In China, the Q2 average NBSK net price was $811 per ton, up to $66 from Q1.

第二季紙漿需求強勁，加上芬蘭軟木供應中斷，導致我們所有主要市場的價格高於第一季。在中國，第二季NBSK平均淨價為每噸811美元，較第一季上漲66美元。

European NBSK list prices averaged $1,602 per ton in the current quarter, an increase of $202 from Q1. And the North American NBSK list price averaged $1,697 per ton in the current quarter, an increase of $257 from Q1.

本季歐洲 NBSK 平均標價為每噸 1,602 美元，比第一季上漲 202 美元。本季北美NBSK平均標價為每噸1,697美元，較第一季上漲257美元。

The North American NBHK average Q2 list price was $1,437 per ton, up $214 from Q1. The price gap between softwood and hardwood pulp narrowed slightly this quarter in China, with the average Q2 net eucalyptus hardwood price at $735 per tonne, up $73 from Q1.

北美NBHK第二季平均標價為每噸1,437美元，比第一季上漲214美元。本季中國針葉木漿和闊葉木漿的價差略為縮小，第二季桉樹闊葉木平均淨價為每噸 735 美元，比第一季上漲 73 美元。

Total pulp sales volumes in the second quarter decreased by 132,000 tonnes to 433,000 tons, driven by lower production from planned maintenance downtime and the disposition of our equity interest in the Cariboo Mill at the end of Q1.

第二季紙漿總銷量減少 132,000 噸，至 433,000 噸，原因是計劃維護停機導致產量下降以及第一季末我們在 Cariboo 工廠的股權處置。

All our mills ran well this quarter. In Q2, we had a total of 44 days of downtime at our mills, which included 37 days for planned annual maintenance and 7 days due to slower than expected startups. In Q1, we had no planned maintenance downtime.

本季我們所有工廠都運作良好。第二季度，我們工廠總共停工 44 天，其中包括 37 天計畫年度維護和 7 天由於啟動慢於預期而停工。第一季度，我們沒有計劃內的維修停機。

After adjusting for the planned maintenance and impact of the disposition of our equity interest in the Cariboo Mill at the end of Q1, pulp production was flat from the first quarter. For our solid wood segment, lumber pricing was mostly flat as modestly higher prices in Europe were offset by lower prices in the US market. Overall in Q2, lumber markets remained weak.

在對計畫維護和第一季末處置 Cariboo 工廠股權的影響進行調整後，紙漿產量與第一季持平。對於我們的實木部門，木材價格基本上持平，因為歐洲價格的小幅上漲被美國市場價格的下跌所抵消。整體而言，第二季木材市場依然疲軟。

The random links US benchmark for Western SPF number 2 and [btr] average price was $386 per thousand board feet in Q2 compared to $447 in Q1. Today, that average benchmark price for Western SPF and btr is around $355 per thousand board feet, about 16% decrease from the beginning of Q2.

隨機連結美國西部 SPF 2 號基準和 [btr] 平均價格在第二季為每千板英尺 386 美元，而第一季為每千板英尺 447 美元。如今，西方 SPF 和 BTR 的平均基準價格約為每千板英尺 355 美元，較第二季初下降約 16%。

For Q3, we are expecting generally flat lumber prices in the US and European markets as demand is expected to remain weak. In the second quarter, we recognized a noncash goodwill impairment of $34 million, or $0.51 per share related to the Torgau facility as a result of ongoing weakness in the European lumber pallet and biofuel markets. Juan Carlos will have more to say on this in a moment.

對於第三季度，我們預計美國和歐洲市場的木材價格將基本持平，因為需求預計將保持疲軟。第二季度，由於歐洲木材托盤和生物燃料市場持續疲軟，我們確認與托爾高工廠相關的非現金商譽減值為 3,400 萬美元，即每股 0.51 美元。胡安·卡洛斯稍後將對此發表更多言論。

Lumber production for Q2 was $111 million board feet, down 12% due to planned maintenance. Lumber sales volumes were $117 million board feet in Q2, down 4%, reflecting the lower production. Our consolidated electricity sales volume totaled 219 gigawatt hours in the quarter, down about 41 gigawatt hours from Q1, reflecting the lower production at our mills.

第二季木材產量為 1.11 億板英尺，由於計畫維護而下降 12%。第二季木材銷量為 1.17 億板英尺，下降 4%，反映出產量下降。本季我們的綜合售電量總計 219 吉瓦時，比第一季減少約 41 吉瓦時，反映出我們工廠的產量較低。

Pricing in Q2 was essentially flat at about $91 per megawatt hour from $94 in Q1. In Q2, our pulp and solid wood segment's fiber costs were both flat compared to Q1 a supply remains stable. Production for our solid wood segments mass timber operations was strong in Q2 at 11,000 cubic meters, an increase of about 54% from Q1 due to the timing of mass timber projects.

第二季的價格基本上持平，從第一季的 94 美元每兆瓦時約為 91 美元。第二季度，我們的紙漿和實木部門的纖維成本與第一季相比均持平，供應保持穩定。由於大規模木材項目的時機安排，我們的實木部門大規模木材業務的產量在第二季度強勁，達到 11,000 立方米，較第一季增長約 54%。

We reported a consolidated net loss of $68 million for the second quarter or $1 and $0.01 per share compared to a net loss of $17 million or $0.25 per share in Q1, we consumed about $11 million of cash in Q2 compared to about $40 million in Q1.

我們報告第二季度綜合淨虧損為6800 萬美元，即每股1 美元和0.01 美元，而第一季淨虧損為1700 萬美元，即每股0.25 美元。現金，而第一季消耗了約4000 萬美元。

Our net working capital was lower by -- in Q2 by roughly $49 million, which provided the cash to repay $45 million of borrowings on our revolving credit facilities. As our operating cash flow improves, we will continue to target offers opportunistic debt reduction. At the end of Q2, our liquidity position totaled $581 million, a modest improvement from Q1 and comprised $263 million of cash and about 4317 million of undrawn revolvers.

第二季度，我們的淨營運資本減少了約 4,900 萬美元，這為我們的循環信貸額度償還 4,500 萬美元的借款提供了現金。隨著我們經營現金流的改善，我們將繼續瞄準提供機會性債務削減。截至第二季末，我們的流動性部位總計 5.81 億美元，較第一季略有改善，其中包括 2.63 億美元現金和約 43.17 億未提取左輪手槍。

Finally, our Board has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share for shareholders of record on September 25, for which payment will be made on October 3, 2024.

最後，我們的董事會於 9 月 25 日批准向登記在冊的股東派發每股 0.075 美元的季度股息，並將於 2024 年 10 月 3 日支付。

That ends my overview of the financial results. I'll now turn the call over to Juan Carlos.

我對財務表現的概述到此結束。我現在將電話轉給胡安·卡洛斯。

Thanks, Rich. Our Q2 operating results were positively impacted by significantly improved pulp pricing, our mass timber business and lower energy costs. These positive effects were more than offset by planned maintenance downtime, which negatively impacted our Q2 EBITDA when compared to Q1 by about $60 million.

謝謝，里奇。我們第二季的經營業績受到紙漿價格顯著提高、我們的大量木材業務和能源成本降低的正面影響。這些正面影響被計劃內的維修停機時間所抵消，與第一季相比，這對我們第二季的 EBITDA 產生了約 6,000 萬美元的負面影響。

Overall, all our mills ran well this quarter, but the planned downtime and related slow start-ups negatively impacted our sales volume relative to Q1's record pulp sales volumes. Our lower Q2 sales volumes also reflect the divestment of the Cariboo mill at the end of Q1.

總體而言，本季度我們所有的工廠都運作良好，但計劃內的停機和相關的緩慢啟動對我們的銷售（相對於第一季創紀錄的紙漿銷售）產生了負面影響。我們第二季銷售量的下降也反映了第一季末 Cariboo 廠的撤資。

I am pleased to note also that within our solid wood segment, our mass timber business was able to execute on some tight deadlines this quarter, which resulted in positive operating results. I will have more to say about this in a moment.

我還很高興地註意到，在我們的實木部門，我們的大型木材業務能夠在本季度的一些緊迫的期限內執行，從而產生了積極的經營業績。稍後我將對此進行更多闡述。

As Rich noted, this quarter, we wrote off the goodwill we recorded with the acquisition of Torgue, regardless of the technical rules around accounting for goodwill, the fact is, the pallet and lumber businesses in Europe have been weaker for longer than we anticipated, and this is due to a number of factors, including the high interest rate environment in Europe that has had a dramatic negative impact on the construction business with a direct impact on lumber prices.

正如 Rich 指出的那樣，本季度，我們沖銷了收購 Torgue 時記錄的商譽，無論商譽會計的技術規則如何，事實是，歐洲的托盤和木材業務比我們預期的更疲軟，這是由於多種因素造成的，包括歐洲的高利率環境對建築業產生了巨大的負面影響，直接影響了木材價格。

And in addition, the unprecedented slowdown of the German economy has reduced the commercialization of goods, which is critical for the pallet business. But despite this write-down we continue to expect to realize significant shareholder value from this investment, including the synergies we identified as part of our acquisition strategy. We're currently ahead of schedule on our capital investment at Torgue that will expand the mill's dimensional lumber capacity and expect to begin to see the benefit of this investment in mid-2025.

此外，德國經濟前所未有的放緩降低了商品的商業化程度，這對托盤業務至關重要。但儘管進行了這種減記，我們仍然期望從這項投資中實現顯著的股東價值，包括我們確定為收購策略一部分的協同效應。目前，我們對 Torgue 的資本投資已提前完成，該投資將擴大工廠的規格材產能，並預計在 2025 年中期開始看到這項投資的效益。

In Q2, we invested roughly $20 million in our operations. As previously announced, our stronger operating results outlook has allowed us to adjust our plan 2024 capital spending to be between $120 million. You will recall that last quarter we restarted both our Torgue lumber expansion project and the Spokane sorting line project. Both of them will provide significant added value and were originally contemplated as part of our investment strategy for each mill.

第二季度，我們在營運方面投資了大約 2000 萬美元。如同先前所宣布的，我們更強勁的經營業績前景使我們能夠將 2024 年資本支出計畫調整至 1.2 億美元之間。您可能還記得，上個季度我們重新啟動了托格木材擴建計畫和斯波坎分類線計畫。它們都將提供顯著的附加價值，最初被視為我們對每家工廠投資策略的一部分。

We remain optimistic about our cash generation forecast for the remainder of 2024, and we'll be prioritizing debt reduction as we move forward.

我們對 2024 年剩餘時間的現金產生預測保持樂觀，並且在前進過程中我們將優先考慮減少債務。

Overall pulp markets improved significantly in the quarter with both the European and North American markets showing the most improvement. We were seeing improved demand from European paper and tissue producers. This demand was primarily the result of merchant destocking and logistical challenges around Chinese imports. To a lesser extent, we were also seeing demand increases in North America.

本季整體紙漿市場顯著改善，其中歐洲和北美市場的改善最為明顯。我們看到歐洲紙張和生活用紙生產商的需求有所改善。這種需求主要是由於中國進口商品的商家去庫存和物流挑戰所造成的。在較小程度上，我們也看到北美的需求增加。

The permanent closure of NBSK mills in the last two years, the impact of the finished transport strike and the significant unplanned downtime at one of the Finland's largest mills created softwood supply challenges further tightening the supply demand dynamics.

過去兩年NBSK工廠的永久關閉、成品運輸罷工的影響以及芬蘭最大工廠之一的嚴重計劃外停機給軟木供應帶來了挑戰，進一步加劇了供應需求動態。

Looking forward, we expect modest downward pulp price pressure into the third quarter due to slower seasonal paper demand. However, we expect some positive pricing pressure late in Q3 and through Q4 due to both ongoing global softwood supply challenges and increased seasonal paper demand.

展望未來，由於季節性紙張需求放緩，我們預計第三季紙漿價格將面臨適度下行壓力。然而，由於持續的全球軟木供應挑戰和季節性紙張需求的增加，我們預計第三季末和第四季會出現一些正面的價格壓力。

We're closely monitoring the Canadian railway union labor issues and have taken steps to mitigate the potential impact it may have. In Q2, we produced 422,000 tonnes of pulp compared to 539,000 tonnes in Q1. This reduction was due to the impact of the 44 days of major maintenance that we had in Q2, plus the divestment of Cariboo mill at the end of Q1.

我們正在密切關注加拿大鐵路工會的勞工問題，並已採取措施減輕其可能的潛在影響。第二季度，我們生產了 422,000 噸紙漿，而第一季為 539,000 噸。這一減少是由於我們在第二季度進行的 44 天大維護以及第一季末 Cariboo 工廠撤資的影響。

Our remaining major maintenance downtime in 2024 scheduled as follows. In Q3, Rosenthal will take a 14 day maintenance shut and Celgar will take a four day mini shut, which will amount to about 20,000 tons production loss in total. And we won't have any maintenance planned shutdown in Q4.

我們 2024 年剩餘的主要維修停機時間安排如下。第三季度，Rosenthal 將進行為期 14 天的維護停產，Celgar 將進行為期 4 天的小規模停產，總計產量損失約 2 萬噸。我們在第四季度不會有任何計劃的停機維護。

As a reminder, Celgar will not have major maintenance shut in 2024 as the mill has moved to an 18-month maintenance schedule. Our solid wood segment results benefited from improved mass timber sales in Q2, but it was not enough to compensate for the impact of lower lumber prices on average with some small pockets of improvement in Europe. While the US market weakened.

需要提醒的是，Celgar 在 2024 年不會進行重大維護，因為工廠已將維護計畫改為 18 個月。我們的實木部門業績受惠於第二季木材銷售的提高，但這不足以彌補木材平均價格下降的影響，歐洲有一些小幅改善。而美國市場則走弱。

High interest rates globally continue to weigh on housing starts and construction in general. We expect Q3 lumber prices to stay essentially flat. There may be some short term lumber pricing upside due to recently announced lumber production curtailments the current forest fire situation in Western Canada and the potential for a prolonged Canadian railway strike.

全球範圍內的高利率繼續對新屋開工和整體建築施工造成壓力。我們預計第三季木材價格將基本持平。由於最近宣布的木材產量削減、加拿大西部目前的森林火災情況以及加拿大鐵路罷工的可能性，短期木材價格可能會上漲。

Any meaningful long-term improvement will be dependent on improved economic conditions. That said, we continue to believe that low lumber inventories, the large number of sawmill curtailments, relatively low housing stock, potential wood saw shortages created by Canadian forest fires and homeowner demographics are still very strong fundamentals for the construction industry, and this will put sustained positive pressure on the supply-demand balance of this business in the midterm.

任何有意義的長期改善都將取決於經濟狀況的改善。儘管如此，我們仍然認為，木材庫存低、鋸木廠大量削減、住房庫存相對較低、加拿大森林火災造成的潛在木鋸短缺以及房主人口統計數據仍然是建築業非常強勁的基本面，這將推動建築業的發展。

In Q2, 39% of our lumber sales volume was sold in the US as we continue to optimize our mix of products and target markets to current conditions. Today or mass timber order file sits at about $55 million. We continue to receive many inbound project inquiries on our finding developers are taking their projects to the point of being ready to execute once the interest rate environment improves.

第二季度，我們的木材銷售的 39% 銷往美國，我們不斷根據當前條件優化產品組合和目標市場。目前，大量木材訂單金額約為 5500 萬美元。我們繼續收到許多入境專案詢問，我們發現開發商正在將他們的專案做好準備，一旦利率環境改善，就可以執行。

Economic stability will meaningfully improve the short term demand for mass timber. In addition, we remain confident that the environmental, economic and aesthetic benefits of mass timber will allow this building product to grow in popularity at a pace similar to that, what we've seen in Europe.

經濟穩定將有意義地改善對大量木材的短期需求。此外，我們仍然相信，大體積木材的環境、經濟和美學效益將使這種建築產品以與我們在歐洲看到的類似的速度流行起來。

We are well positioned to take advantage of that market growth as we have roughly 35% of North American mass timber production capacity, our broad range of product offerings and a large geographic footprint giving us competitive access to the entire North American market.

我們處於有利地位，可以充分利用這一市場成長，因為我們擁有北美約 35% 的大規模木材生產能力，我們提供廣泛的產品系列和廣闊的地理足跡，使我們能夠以競爭優勢進入整個北美市場。

On the other hand, shipping pallets remain weak due to the overhang of the European economy, particularly in Germany. However, due to our efforts to improve our product mix, we saw a slight increase in average pallet prices in Q2. Once the economy begins to show signs of recovery, we expect pallet prices to return to normal levels, allowing this asset to deliver significant shareholder value.

另一方面，由於歐洲經濟，特別是德國經濟的過剩，運輸托盤仍然疲軟。然而，由於我們努力改善產品結構，第二季托盤平均價格略有上漲。一旦經濟開始顯示復甦跡象，我們預計托盤價格將恢復到正常水平，從而使該資產能夠為股東帶來可觀的價值。

Heating pellets were down slightly in Q2 due to expected seasonality in this market, but we expect demand and prices to increase in Q3 as customers build their winter stocks. As I previously noted, we have restarted strategic and high return CapEx projects at both our Torgue and Spokane mills. I've already spoken about Torque project, and I wanted to remind you our Spokane project was also originally envisioned as part of our investment strategy for this mill.

由於市場預期的季節性因素，加熱顆粒在第二季略有下降，但我們預計隨著客戶建立冬季庫存，第三季的需求和價格將會增加。正如我之前指出的，我們已經在托格和斯波坎工廠重啟了策略性和高回報資本支出項目。我已經談到了扭矩​​項目，我想提醒您，我們的斯波坎項目最初也是我們對該工廠投資策略的一部分。

This project is focused on the mill's wood in feed and sorting processes. Once this project is complete in mid-2025, the mill will be able to source lower-cost feedstock and processes into high quality lamp stock. Ultimately, this will significantly reduce the mill's fiber costs.

該項目的重點是工廠的木材進料和分選過程。一旦該項目於 2025 年中期完成，工廠將能夠採購成本較低的原料並加工成高品質的燈庫存。最終，這將顯著降低工廠的纖維成本。

In Q2, our overall pulp fiber costs were flat from Q1. In Germany, a steady supply of sandal chips resulted in modest cost decreases. And in Canada, our ramp-up of Peace River's wood room and our Celgar wood room strategy -- wood strategy also kept our fiber costs in check.

第二季度，我們的整體紙漿纖維成本與第一季持平。在德國，涼鞋片的穩定供應導致成本小幅下降。在加拿大，我們對 Peace River 木室的擴建和 Celgar 木室策略—木材策略也控制了我們的纖維成本。

Looking ahead, we expect our fiber costs to remain stable for both our pulp and solid wood businesses in Q3. I am pleased with our new lignin extraction plant ramp-up and the partnerships we have entered into to support the future commercialization of this product. I expect to share our vision for this product in the near future. As a reminder, this new lignin plant is a large step towards Mercer being able to develop a portfolio of novel offerings before going commercial with it.

展望未來，我們預計第三季紙漿和實木業務的纖維成本將保持穩定。我對我們新的木質素提取工廠的擴建以及我們為支持該產品未來商業化而建立的合作夥伴關係感到高興。我希望在不久的將來分享我們對該產品的願景。提醒一下，這座新的木質素工廠是美世在商業化之前能夠開發出一系列新穎產品組合的一大進步。

We're excited about the future prospect of this product as a sustainable alternative to fossil fuel-based products such as in adhesives and advanced battery elements among many others. This aligns perfectly with our strategy, which involves expanding into green chemicals and products that are compatible with a circular carbon economy or adding shareholder value.

我們對該產品作為化石燃料產品（例如黏合劑和先進電池元件等）的可持續替代品的未來前景感到興奮。這與我們的策略完全一致，該策略涉及擴展到與循環碳經濟相容或增加股東價值的綠色化學品和產品。

As the world becomes more sensitive to reducing carbon emissions, we believe that products like lignin, mass timber, green energy, lumber and pulp, will play increasingly important roles in displacing carbon-intensive products. Products like concrete and steel for construction or plastic for packaging.

隨著世界對減少碳排放越來越敏感，我們相信木質素、大塊木材、綠色能源、木材和紙漿等產品將在取代碳密集產品方面發揮越來越重要的作用。產品如建築用混凝土和鋼材或包裝用塑膠。

Furthermore, the potential demand for sustainable fossil fuel substitutes is very significant and has the potential to be transformative to the wood products industry. We remain committed to our 2030 carbon reduction targets and believe our products form part of the climate change solution.

此外，對永續化石燃料替代品的潛在需求非常巨大，有可能為木製品產業帶來改變。我們仍然致力於實現 2030 年碳減排目標，並相信我們的產品是氣候變遷解決方案的一部分。

In fact, we believe that in the fullness of time, demand for low-carbon products will dramatically increase as the world looks for solutions to reduce its carbon emissions. We remain bullish on the long-term value of pulp and are committed to better balance our company through faster growth in our lumber and mass timber businesses.

事實上，我們相信，隨著世界尋求減少碳排放的解決方案，隨著時間的推移，對低碳產品的需求將會急劇增加。我們仍然看好紙漿的長期價值，並致力於透過木材和大宗木材業務的更快成長來更好地平衡我們的公司。

In closing, I am pleased that our pulp markets have improved and that we have the majority of our major maintenance behind us. We're expecting strong operating results from this segment in the second half of 2024.

最後，我很高興我們的紙漿市場有所改善，我們已經完成了大部分主要維護工作。我們預計該細分市場在 2024 年下半年將取得強勁的營運表現。

Regarding our solid wood segment, we expect weak economic conditions to continue to keep pressure on demand for construction products and pellets.

關於我們的實木部門，我們預計疲軟的經濟狀況將繼續對建築產品和顆粒的需求造成壓力。

Finally, we will remain focused on our cost saving initiatives, and we'll continue to prioritize debt reduction as we manage our cash and liquidity prudently. Thanks for listening, and I will now turn the call back to the operator for questions. Thank you.

最後，我們將繼續專注於成本節約舉措，並在審慎管理現金和流動性的同時繼續優先考慮減少債務。感謝您的聆聽，我現在將把電話轉回給接線員詢問問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Hamir Patel, CIBC.

（操作員指示）Hamir Patel，CIBC。

Hi, good morning. Juan Carlos, once the projects at the Torgue are completed, which I think are slated for mid-2025, how do you see the percent of your lumber shipments that you sell to the US changing?

嗨，早安。Juan Carlos，一旦 Torgue 專案完成（我認為該專案預計於 2025 年中期完成），您如何看待銷往美國的木材出口百分比的變化？

Hello, Hamir. Yes, what we are expecting with these investments is that once everything is concluded, we'll have about a 25% increase in our timber capacity. So we will be able to work with at least 200,000 cubic meters more of wood into our mill. When we look at our total plain lumber capacity, we're thinking that we may be able to add about 240,000 cubic meters of finding capacity.

你好，哈米爾。是的，我們對這些投資的期望是，一旦一切完成，我們的木材產能將增加約 25%。因此，我們的工廠將能夠多使用至少 200,000 立方米的木材。當我們查看我們的原材總產能時，我們認為我們可能能夠增加約 240,000 立方米的尋找產能。

So obviously, a part of that will be destined to the US. How much goes to the US will be determined as we normally do, based on how we see prices developing in Europe versus the US. If you think for a minute, I think it was last quarter or the quarter before that you were talking about how much was going to the US, I think we were up to 55% of our business going to the US a few quarters back.

顯然，其中一部分將運往美國。有多少流向美國將像往常一樣根據我們對歐洲與美國價格發展的看法來確定。如果你想一想，我認為你在談論有多少業務流向美國是在上個季度或前一個季度，我認為幾個季度前我們有多達 55% 的業務流向美國。

This quarter, we closed at 39%. And this is because we saw some important improvements in the UK and Ireland market. And therefore, we decided to divert a little bit more of lumber to that space. So we will keep on having that fluctuation I would say on average anywhere between 40% to up to 60% as a maximum would be the amount that would flow into the US at any given point in time.

本季度，我們的收盤率為 39%。這是因為我們看到英國和愛爾蘭市場出現了一些重要的改善。因此，我們決定將更多的木材轉移到該空間。因此，我們將繼續保持這種波動，我想說，平均在 40% 到 60% 之間，因為在任何給定時間點流入美國的金額最多為最大值。

Okay. Great. Thanks, Juan Carlos, that's helpful. I want to ask on the pulp side. There's been some reports recently in receive that Suzano is piloting a kind of new hybrid crane, which I think they called the UK strong to compete with softwood. How do you see the threat to NBSK from some of the innovations that are playing out on the hardwood side.

好的。偉大的。謝謝，胡安·卡洛斯，這很有幫助。我想問紙漿方面。最近收到的一些報導稱，Suzano 正在試驗一種新型混合起重機，我認為他們稱英國有能力與軟木競爭。您如何看待硬木方面的一些創新對 NBSK 的威脅？

As always of those faults, we'll end up finding some space. The way that we see it is as we work through our customers and our teams, not only our sales team, but our market development teams of the technical guys that are working close with customers to make sure that their furnaces are properly set up for the products that they end up producing that bond. We keep on strengthening further and further substituting that with a with an unknown grade. I know it's going to be quite challenging.

像往常一樣，我們最終會找到一些空間。我們看待這個問題的方式是，我們透過我們的客戶和我們的團隊進行工作，不僅是我們的銷售團隊，還有我們的技術人員市場開發團隊，他們與客戶密切合作，以確保他們的熔爐能夠正確設置，以適應客戶的需求。我們不斷地進一步強化，並以未知等級的取代。我知道這將非常具有挑戰性。

So we have we have confidence in making sure that and with those customers that we've had long-standing relationship with our softwood pulp, that those will remain and therefore, we don't see this as a very significant threat. I wouldn't be surprised if a product like this ends up flowing more into a less demanding market, whether it's China or others that are qualities a bit more flexible. But in the case of some of the markets that we play with some of the customers that we play, I think it's going to be a bit more challenging.

因此，我們有信心確保與我們與針葉木漿建立長期合作關係的客戶保持這些關係，因此，我們不認為這是一個非常重大的威脅。如果這樣的產品最終更多地流入需求較低的市場，無論是中國還是其他品質更靈活的市場，我不會感到驚訝。但就我們與一些客戶合作的一些市場而言，我認為這將更具挑戰性。

Okay. Fair enough. But that's all I had. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

好的。很公平。但這就是我所擁有的一切。我會把它翻過來。謝謝。

Brandon Hall, CISC Asset Management.

布蘭登霍爾，中投證券資產管理公司。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just a real quick question about the pulp market. As you're seeing it right now, could you could you give a little color on what you're seeing in Asia. I guess some of the trade publications were saying the prices in Asia, we're moving down pretty substantially last week. I just wanted to see if you're seeing that and what the sort of play on interplay between what you see there and what happens in Europe?

嗨，早安。感謝您提出我的問題。這是一個關於紙漿市場的快速問題。正如您現在所看到的那樣，您能否為您在亞洲所看到的情況提供一些色彩？我猜一些貿易出版物說亞洲的價格上周大幅下降。我只是想看看你是否看到了這一點，以及你在那裡看到的情況與歐洲發生的情況之間有什麼樣的相互作用？

Absolutely, Brandon. Yeah obviously, there's we need to make two distinctions. The first one, what's happening on hardwood versus what's happening on softwood. Hardwood, it's undeniable that there has been a correction -- unimportant correction on hardwood of probably about $100, and this is on the back of Cerrado and from Suzano coming up, that was 2.6 million tonnes and also the Liangshan product in China -- project in China, that was 1.7 million tonnes.

當然，布蘭登。是的，顯然，我們需要做出兩個區分。第一個，硬木上發生的情況與軟木上發生的情況。硬木，不可否認的是，已經出現了調整——硬木的不重要調整可能約為100 美元，這是在Cerrado 和Suzano 即將推出的情況下進行的，產量為260 萬噸，還有中國涼山產品— —專案在中國，這一數字為170萬噸。

So that -- all that pulp coming to market, obviously that puts pressure, it makes sense that in a market that is oversupplied, you would start seeing some corrections very quickly and that is what has happened.

因此，所有進入市場的紙漿顯然都會帶來壓力，在供應過剩的市場中，你很快就會開始看到一些調整，而這就是所發生的情況。

However, the situation in softwood is different. If anything, softwood is still under a very tightness situation when it comes to supply. So very, very different from where we see hardwood. Even when we look at the demand to capacity ratio, the way it's evolving, we're saying that -- we're seeing that softwood is going to 93% next year and hardwood is going to go down to about 86%.

然而，軟木的情況有所不同。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是軟木的供應仍然非常緊張。與我們看到的硬木非常非常不同。即使當我們觀察需求與產能比率及其演變方式時，我們也會說——我們看到明年軟木將降至 93%，而硬木將降至 86% 左右。

So again, the pressure on hardwood will remain while softwood will be in a very different situation. That would mean that the spread between the two will expand. And obviously there's going to be some pressure on substitution and whatnot. But I think the fundamentals for softwood being so tight on supply are going to be still very relevant.

因此，硬木的壓力仍將存在，而軟木的情況將截然不同。這意味著兩者之間的價差將會擴大。顯然，替代品等方面將會面臨一些壓力。但我認為軟木供應如此緊張的基本面仍然非常重要。

Even if you think about I think it was recently this week, there was another announcement from another mill in Finland, that they're already thinking about laying people off and stopping for I think it's three months, what I understood it was and this is a big mill. If they stopped for three months, it's almost taking away another 200,000 tons of pulp in the upfront market in any given year if it's only three months.

即使你想想我認為最近這週，芬蘭的另一家工廠又發布了一項公告，他們已經在考慮裁員並停止了三個月，我認為是這樣的一個大磨坊。如果他們停產三個月，那麼在任何一年中，如果只停產三個月，前期市場上的紙漿幾乎就會再減少 20 萬噸。

So again, it just exacerbates the fact that supply on softwood continues to be tight and will be even tighter as we progress and that would have -- that will translate into is that even if hardwood drops by 100 like it did the drop in softwood would be mitigated pretty much and very limited.

因此，這再次加劇了這樣一個事實，即軟木供應持續緊張，而且隨著我們的進展，供應將會更加緊張，這將意味著，即使硬木像以前那樣下降 100，軟木的下降也會很大程度的緩解，而且非常有限。

So far, the softwood prices, they have come down a bit, I would say, probably less than $50, and that's more or less where we think they will most likely remain. Our belief is that as the year progresses and we get past the summer season of which obviously comes with low demand, both in Europe and in China, demand will pick up again and prices, we can recover a little bit of the lost ground in this Q3. Again not -- we don't expect that ground to be very significant in Q3. Hope that's helps so Brandan.

到目前為止，軟木價格已經下降了一點，我想說，可能低於 50 美元，我們認為它們最有可能保持在這個水平。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們已經度過了夏季，歐洲和中國的需求明顯較低，需求將再次回升，價格也將回升，我們可以收復一點失地。同樣不是 - 我們預計第三季的情況不會非常重要。希望這對布蘭登有幫助。

Yeah, that's good color. Thank you very much. And then in Germany and obviously, you talked the struggles, the economic struggles there. Are you seeing any signs of improvement there yet? Or is it sort of bouncing along this low level?

是的，這個顏色很好。非常感謝。然後在德國，顯然，你談到了那裡的鬥爭和經濟鬥爭。您是否看到任何改善的跡象？或者它是在這麼低的水平上反彈嗎？

It's still very timid. Obviously, we see that at least the European authorities interests are starting to come down, which is a good sign. However, Germany as a country and itself is probably lagging a little bit behind the rest of Europe, which is country to what everybody's used to, when Germany is the one that's leading the pace. And in this case, it's different. It is lagging behind a bit.

它還是很膽怯。顯然，我們看到至少歐洲當局的利益開始下降，這是一個好兆頭。然而，德國作為一個國家及其本身可能落後於歐洲其他國家，而歐洲其他國家卻是每個人都習慣的國家，而德國卻是領先的國家。而在這種情況下，情況有所不同。是有點落後了。

And that is probably the reason why we believe that the improvement or the recovery, especially in the construction sector, is going to take a bit longer than what you would expect. And that's what keeps us a bit more conservative on what we think we can expect from for either lumber prices or in the case of the German economy itself, what we can expect for the pallet prices in the short term.

這可能是為什麼我們認為改善或復甦，特別是在建築業，將需要比您預期更長的時間。這就是讓我們對木材價格或德國經濟本身的短期托盤價格預期更加保守的原因。

We're hoping for a more of a half second half 2025 have commencement of some signs of improvement. Because even if interest rates are cut now, that doesn't mean that immediately you will have an impact and lumber prices will go immediately up. We believe that there's a lag between one action and another. So that's a little bit of the timing that we have in our planning.

我們希望 2025 年下半年一半以上的時間能夠開始出現一些改善的跡象。因為即使現在降息，也不意味著立即就會產生影響，木材價格也會立即上漲。我們相信一項行動與另一項行動之間存在著滯後。這就是我們計劃中的一點時間安排。

Okay. Thanks very much for taking the questions.

好的。非常感謝您提出問題。

(Operator Instructions) [Keisha Capitec], TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）[Keisha Capitec]，TD Cowen。

Hi, good morning, everyone, it's Keisha on the line. You articulated a focus on deleveraging over the mid-term. Just curious about your updated thoughts on potential asset divestitures to expedite that?

大家早安，我是凱莎。您闡明了中期去槓桿化的重點。只是想知道您對潛在資產剝離以加快這一進程的最新想法嗎？

Hi Keisha. The only thing that we've got on the books right now for sale is Sentinel and that process is ongoing and we don't expect any further write-downs on that.

嗨，凱莎。我們目前帳面上唯一待售的東西是 Sentinel，並且該過程正在進行中，我們預計不會進一步對其進行減記。

Okay. Got it. Can you talk about your order file and how that varies throughout the cycle. Just getting trying to get a sense if there's any the order file timing lags reflected in your Q3 average price realization.

好的。知道了。您能談談您的訂單文件以及它在整個週期中的變化嗎？只是想了解第三季平均價格實現中是否反映出訂單文件時間落後。

But are you referring to a mass timber?

但你指的是大塊木材嗎？

No, sorry, pulp?

不，對不起，紙漿？

Yeah. So I guess maybe expand on what you mean by order file a little bit because we sell primarily spot in Asia. And in Europe, we basically sell the mills out every month. Yeah, we've got pretty low inventories across the board.

是的。所以我想也許可以稍微擴展一下您所說的訂單文件的含義，因為我們主要在亞洲銷售現貨。在歐洲，我們基本上每個月都會把工廠賣掉。是的，我們的庫存量非常低。

Got it. Okay, so it'll sell at every month, but, if you're selling to a customer, it wouldn't ship for, let's say, two weeks or three weeks at this point or what is that lag look like?

知道了。好的，所以它每個月都會出售，但是，如果您要向客戶出售，那麼它不會在兩週或三週內發貨，或者這種滯後是什麼樣的？

Okay, for delivery times, again it depends on Europe for it's a number of weeks like one to two weeks. Generally work depends where it's going, but in Asia would take 30 to 60 days to deliver.

好的，對於交貨時間，這又取決於歐洲，因為它需要幾週的時間，例如一到兩週。一般來說，工作取決於目的地，但在亞洲需要 30 到 60 天才能送達。

Okay. Got it. Yeah, I'm just trying to get a sense, prices are rolling off here, but maybe not all of that's going to be reflected in Q3, maybe some of that will bleed into Q4? Just trying to get a sense of the timing, but that's the color thing.

好的。知道了。是的，我只是想了解一下，價格正在下降，但也許並非所有這些都會反映在第三季度，也許其中一些會滲透到第四季度？只是想了解時間，但這就是顏色的問題。

Yeah. Okay, great.

是的。好的，太好了。

Sorry, go ahead. You about to say something.

抱歉，請繼續。你正要說些什麼。

No. Yeah, I was just going to say, if you're trying to use like an average like a 45 day average would probably be for your modeling purposes.

不。是的，我只是想說，如果您嘗試使用 45 天平均值之類的平均值，可能會用於建模目的。

Okay. Yeah, got it. That's a good wealth on things. So good pickup on the top line in the mass timber business. Is that EBITDA positive at this point?

好的。是的，明白了。這是一筆很好的財富。大眾木材業務的營收表現非常好。目前 EBITDA 是否為正值？

Yes, it is. It was EBITDA positive. I think things since Q4 of last year, it was the first time that it was EBITDA positive. It was very strong. It was strong this quarter.

是的。EBITDA 為正值。我認為自去年第四季以來，這是第一次 EBITDA 為正值。非常強烈。本季表現強勁。

So we're looking forward to the growth of that business in 2024, we're expecting it to be probably twice the amount of sales that we had in 2023. It should be around $110 million by the end of the year, and Q2 was particularly strong. There was some projects delayed from Q1 that ended up being kind of all compounded into Q2 that made us running against the clock in Q2.

因此，我們期待該業務在 2024 年實現成長，預計其銷售額可能是 2023 年銷售額的兩倍。到年底應該會達到 1.1 億美元左右，第二季尤其強勁。有一些項目從第一季推遲，最終全部合併到第二季度，這讓我們在第二季度爭分奪秒。

We delivered all the projects on time and no complaints whatsoever, quality on spec, everything very well produced and delivered. And that allowed us to run our mills more efficiently on one shift only at this point in time. So that's why Q2 was, I would say, a lot more stronger or stronger than what we had planned for as they were picking up a little bit of the slack from [20] from Q1.

我們按時交付了所有項目，沒有任何投訴，品質符合規格，一切都製作和交付得很好。這使我們能夠僅在此時以一班更有效率地運行我們的工廠。因此，我想說，這就是為什麼第二季度比我們計劃的要強大得多，因為他們彌補了第一季[20]的一些不足。

And this is on the back of customers delaying some of their projects. And therefore, we have to adjust with whatever the customer planning schedule is. And that's the situation that followed in Q2. In Q3 and in Q4, we don't have any more or very little of the big, big large-scale projects that we had at the beginning of the year. So that's a little bit of a change in dynamic. It's going to be smaller projects that we attend to during the second half of the year.

這是因為客戶推遲了一些專案。因此，無論客戶的計劃安排如何，我們都必須進行調整。這就是第二季的情況。在第三季和第四季度，我們沒有更多或很少有年初的大型專案。所以這是動態上的一點變化。我們在下半年將參與一些較小的項目。

Thanks for that. That's helpful. Juan Carlos, can you remind me what kind of EBITDA margins are you looking at for that -- for those sales?

謝謝你。這很有幫助。胡安·卡洛斯（Juan Carlos），您能提醒我一下，對於這些銷售，您希望獲得什麼樣的 EBITDA 利潤率？

We talk about EBITDA margins in the long term, more than specifically what we do right now. And we aim for fourth, 20% between 10% and 20% in the long run, it's going to be around 20% or more.

我們談論長期的 EBITDA 利潤率，而不是具體我們現在所做的事情。我們的目標是第四，20%，從長遠來看，在 10% 到 20% 之間，會在 20% 左右或更多。

That's what we expect of mass timber.

這就是我們對大量木材的期望。

Okay. And but right now, probably just low single digits I imagine, something in that range.

好的。但現在，我想可能只是低個位數，在這個範圍內。

Yeah.

是的。

Okay. Got you. That's all I had. Thanks very much, Juen.

好的。明白你了。這就是我所擁有的一切。非常感謝，胡恩。

Thank you. And the important thing Keisha just to expand on that, keep in mind that right now are the margins that we're seeing is running with one shift and not being able only in Q2, we've had those shifts practically for in our facilities.

謝謝。凱莎（Keisha）要擴展這一點的重要一點是，請記住，現在我們看到的利潤是一個班次，而不能僅在第二季度實現，我們實際上已經在我們的設施中進行了這些班次。

Going forward, when we as we expand this business, obviously the margins can grow as we can put two shifts or even three shifts into those facilities. So that is the key thing here is for us to grow this business in a way that we can add more shifts and take advantage of the capacity that we have installed and therefore I'll have better return on those fixed costs.

展望未來，當我們擴大這項業務時，顯然利潤會成長，因為我們可以在這些設施中實行兩班制甚至三班制。因此，對我們來說，關鍵是要以增加更多班次並利用我們已安裝的產能的方式發展這項業務，因此我將在這些固定成本上獲得更好的回報。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call over to Juan Carlos Bueno for closing remarks.

謝謝。我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。我想將電話轉給胡安·卡洛斯·布埃諾 (Juan Carlos Bueno) 致閉幕詞。

Okay. Thank you, Michelle, and thanks to all of you for joining our call. Rich and I are available to talk more at any time, so don't hesitate to call one of us. Otherwise, we look forward to speaking to you again on our next earnings call in November. Bye for now.

好的。謝謝你，米歇爾，也謝謝大家加入我們的電話會議。里奇和我可以隨時進行更多交談，因此請隨時致電我們中的一位。否則，我們期待在 11 月的下一次財報電話會議上再次與您交談。暫時再見。

This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.

程式到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。每個人都度過了愉快的一天。