Mercer International Inc (MERC) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Mercer International's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On this call today is Juan Carlos Bueno, Mercer's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Richard Short, Mercer's Chief Financial Officer and Secretary.

早安，歡迎參加美世國際2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有：美世總裁兼執行長胡安·卡洛斯·布埃諾；以及美世首席財務官兼秘書理查德·肖特。

I will now hand the call over to Richard.

現在我將把電話交給理查。

Thanks, Michelle. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I will begin by touching on the financial and operating highlights of the third quarter before turning the call to Juan Carlos to provide further color into the markets, our operations and our strategic initiatives. Also, for those of you that have joined today's call by telephone, there is presentation material that we have attached to the Investors section of our website.

謝謝你，米歇爾。各位早安。感謝您今天收看我們的節目。我將先簡要介紹第三季的財務和營運亮點，然後再將電話轉交給胡安·卡洛斯，讓他進一步闡述市場、我們的營運和策略舉措。此外，對於今天透過電話參加會議的各位，我們已將演示材料附在了我們網站的投資者關係部分。

But before turning to our results, I would like to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements in this morning's conference call. According to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, I'd like to call your attention to the risks related to these statements, which are more fully described in our press release and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

但在介紹我們的業績之前，我想提醒各位，我們將在今天早上的電話會議上發表一些前瞻性聲明。根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款，我想提請各位注意與這些聲明相關的風險，這些風險在我們的新聞稿和公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中均有更詳細的描述。

This quarter, our EBITDA was negative $28 million, including a $20 million non-cash inventory impairment, a decrease from negative EBITDA of $21 million in the second quarter. One of the key drivers of our results was negative pressure on pulp pricing and demand from global economic and trade uncertainty.

本季度，我們的 EBITDA 為負 2,800 萬美元，其中包括 2,000 萬美元的非現金存貨減值，較第二季的負 EBITDA 2,100 萬美元有所下降。我們的業績主要受全球經濟和貿易不確定性對紙漿價格和需求造成的負面壓力影響。

We had lower sales realizations for both softwood and hardwood pulp, which negatively impacted EBITDA by roughly $15 million, and was also a key factor behind our non-cash inventory impairment charge. In the third quarter, our pulp segment had negative quarterly EBITDA of $13 million, while the solid wood segment had negative EBITDA of $9 million. Additional segment disclosures are available in our Form 10-Q, which can be found on our website and that of the SEC.

軟木漿和硬木漿的銷售實現率均有所下降，導致 EBITDA 減少了約 1500 萬美元，這也是我們產生非現金存貨減損費用的關鍵因素。第三季度，我們的紙漿業務部門的季度 EBITDA 為負 1,300 萬美元，而實木業務部門的 EBITDA 為負 900 萬美元。更多分部揭露資訊請參閱我們的 10-Q 表格，該表格可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上找到。

Third quarter average published prices for NBSK and NBHK pulp decreased across all our markets compared to the second quarter. This decrease was due to weakened demand caused by a sustained uncertain global economic and trade environment.

第三季度，我們所有市場上的NBSK和NBHK紙漿平均公佈價格均較第二季下降。這一下降是由於持續不確定的全球經濟和貿易環境導致需求疲軟。

The price decline in China was further impacted by an oversupplied paper market and the increase in integrated pulp production. NBSK pulp prices faced additional pressure from the increased substitution of softwood with lower-cost hardwood. In the third quarter, the NBSK net price in China was $690 per tonne, a decrease of $44 from the second quarter.

中國紙張價格下跌也受到紙張市場供應過剩和紙漿一體化生產增加的進一步影響。由於軟木越來越多地被成本較低的硬木替代，NBSK紙漿價格面臨更大的壓力。第三季度，中國NBSK淨價為每噸690美元，比第二季下降了44美元。

The European NBSK list price averaged $1,497 per tonne, a decrease of $56 from the prior quarter, while the North American NBSK list price decreased $120 in the second quarter, averaging $1,700 per tonne. The market price gap between NBSK and NBHK in China was about $190 per tonne this quarter, a slight decrease from the roughly $200 in the second quarter.

歐洲 NBSK 標價平均為每噸 1497 美元，比上一季下降了 56 美元；北美 NBSK 標價在第二季度下降了 120 美元，平均為每噸 1700 美元。本季中國NBSK和NBHK之間的市場價格差約為每噸190美元，較第二季的約200美元略有下降。

In China, the third quarter average NBHK net price was $503 per tonne, down $30 compared to the second quarter, and the North American third quarter price was $1,203, down $107 per tonne. As mentioned previously, the third quarter included a $20 million non-cash inventory impairment, primarily driven by lower pulp prices. Of this amount, approximately $15 million was attributed to hardwood inventories and the remainder was primarily against softwood inventories.

在中國，第三季NBHK平均淨價為每噸503美元，較第二季下降30美元；北美第三季價格為每噸1,203美元，下降107美元。如前所述，第三季包括 2,000 萬美元的非現金存貨減值，主要原因是紙漿價格下跌。其中約 1500 萬美元歸因於硬木庫存，其餘部分主要歸因於軟木庫存。

Pulp sales volumes in the third quarter increased by 26,000 tonnes to 453,000 tonnes. Pulp production in the third quarter was -- of 459,000 tonnes was flat compared to the second quarter. We had 20 days of planned maintenance downtime in the third quarter compared to 23 days in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2025, we had 18 days of planned maintenance downtime at our Stendal mill.

第三季紙漿銷售量增加2.6萬噸，達45.3萬噸。第三季紙漿產量為 459,000 噸，與第二季持平。第三季計畫內維護停機時間為 20 天，而第二季為 23 天。2025 年第四季度，我們的 Stendal 工廠有 18 天的計畫內維護停機時間。

For our solid wood segment, lumber pricing in the third quarter was relatively stable compared to the second quarter in both the US and European markets, as reduced supply offset relatively weak demand. The Random Lengths US benchmark price for Western SPF number 2 and better averaged $477 per thousand board feet in the third quarter, a modest increase from $472 per thousand board feet in the second quarter. Today, that benchmark price for Western SPF number 2 and better is around $460 per thousand board feet, a modest increase from the beginning of 2025.

就我們的實木業務而言，第三季美國和歐洲市場的木材價格與第二季相比相對穩定，因為供應減少抵消了相對疲軟的需求。第三季度，Random Lengths 美國西部 SPF 2 號及以上木材的基準價格平均為每千板英尺 477 美元，比第二季度的每千板英尺 472 美元略有上漲。如今，西部 SPF 2 號及以上木材的基準價格約為每千板英尺 460 美元，比 2025 年初略有上漲。

In the third quarter, lumber production decreased by about 4% to 150 million board feet from the second quarter due to planned maintenance at our Friesau mill. Lumber sales volumes also decreased to 110 million board feet, down about 9% from the second quarter, reflecting the lower production and timing of sales.

第三季度，由於弗里紹工廠的計畫維護，木材產量比第二季度減少了約 4%，至 1.5 億板英尺。木材銷售量也下降至 1.1 億板英尺，比第二季下降約 9%，反映出產量下降和銷售時間表的變化。

Electricity sales for the quarter totaled 204 gigawatt hours, a 6% decrease from the second quarter due to planned turbine maintenance at the Rosenthal and Celgar mills. Third quarter pricing increased to about $106 per megawatt hour, up from $90 in the second quarter, driven by higher spot prices in both Canada and Germany.

本季電力銷售總量為 204 吉瓦時，比第二季度下降了 6%，原因是 Rosenthal 和 Celgar 工廠計劃進行渦輪機維護。受加拿大和德國現貨價格上漲的推動，第三季電價上漲至每兆瓦時約 106 美元，高於第二季的 90 美元。

Fiber costs for both our pulp and solid wood segments were flat in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. Overall fiber costs remained high in Germany with strong sawlog demand and constrained supply, while in Canada, demand was stable.

第三季度，我們紙漿和實木業務的纖維成本與第二季度相比持平。由於德國原木需求強勁而供應受限，整體纖維成本仍居高不下；而在加拿大，需求則保持穩定。

Our mass timber operations within the solid wood segment had stable revenues in the third quarter compared to the second quarter as the elevated interest rates in the US continue to impact project timelines and overall market momentum.

由於美國高利率持續影響專案進度和整體市場勢頭，我們實木領域的大宗木材業務在第三季的收入與第二季相比保持穩定。

However, despite the headwinds, our mass timber business has developed a healthy order book as we continue to see growing interest in mass timber and expected improvement -- and we expect to improve results in 2026.

然而，儘管面臨諸多不利因素，我們的大宗木材業務訂單量依然保持健康增長，因為我們持續看到市場對大宗木材的興趣日益濃厚，並預期業務將有所改善——我們預計 2026 年業績將有所提升。

We continue to make progress on our One Goal, One Hundred program. As a reminder, this initiative focuses on cost reduction and operational efficiencies with a target to improve our profitability by $100 million by the end of 2026, using 2024 as a baseline.

我們的「一個目標，一百人」計劃持續取得進展。再次提醒大家，這項計畫的重點是降低成本和提高營運效率，目標是在 2024 年為基準年，到 2026 年底將我們的獲利能力提高 1 億美元。

We currently expect to realize approximately $30 million in cost savings and reliability improvements by the end of 2025. Juan Carlos will provide more details on our progress on this initiative. We reported a consolidated net loss of $81 million for the third quarter or $1.21 per share compared to a net loss of $86 million or $1.29 per share in the second quarter.

我們目前預計到 2025 年底，將實現約 3,000 萬美元的成本節約和可靠性提升。胡安·卡洛斯將提供更多關於我們這項計劃進展的細節。第三季綜合淨虧損為 8,100 萬美元，即每股虧損 1.21 美元，而第二季淨虧損為 8,600 萬美元，即每股虧損 1.29 美元。

In the third quarter, we consumed about $48 million of cash compared to $35 million in the second quarter. This increase was primarily driven by lower EBITDA. In the third quarter, we invested a total of $30 million in capital across our facilities.

第三季度，我們消耗了約 4,800 萬美元現金，而第二季為 3,500 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於 EBITDA 下降所致。第三季度，我們在各個設施中總共投入了 3,000 萬美元的資金。

These investments were primarily for maintenance, but also included upgrades to the log yards at Friesau and Torgau. The upgrades are expected to enhance efficiencies, positioning us favorably for improvements in the solid wood market.

這些投資主要用於維護，但也包括對弗里紹和托爾高木材堆場的升級改造。此次升級可望提高效率，使我們在實木市場的改善中處於有利地位。

At the end of the third quarter, our strong liquidity position totaled $376 million, comprised of about $98 million of cash and $278 million of undrawn revolvers. That ends my overview of the financial results. I'll now turn the call over to Juan Carlos.

第三季末，我們強勁的流動性狀況總計達 3.76 億美元，其中包括約 9,800 萬美元現金和 2.78 億美元未提取循環信貸額度。我的財務表現概述到此結束。現在我將把電話交給胡安·卡洛斯。

Thanks, Rich. This quarter's operating results were disappointing, mainly due to trade uncertainty, which created significant industry headwinds such as China increasing its paper exports to Europe, thus negatively impacting European paper producers.

謝謝你，里奇。本季經營業績令人失望，主要原因是貿易不確定性，這給產業帶來了重大不利因素，例如中國增加了對歐洲的紙張出口，從而對歐洲造紙生產商產生了負面影響。

The economic uncertainty created by tariffs and trade disputes is negatively impacting demand for both paper and lumber. Another factor this quarter was the $200 price gap between hardwood and softwood pulp, which incentivizes certain customers to use more hardwood in their furnish.

關稅和貿易爭端造成的經濟不確定性對紙張和木材的需求都產生了負面影響。本季另一個因素是硬木漿和軟木漿之間 200 美元的價格差距，這促使某些客戶在家具中使用更多的硬木。

In spite of these factors, demand for softwood pulp has been steady, but weak hardwood pricing is holding softwood prices down despite strong overall softwood fundamentals. In addition, the ongoing trade disputes are putting downward pressure on the US dollar, which negatively affects our operating results.

儘管存在這些因素，但對軟木紙漿的需求一直保持穩定，但疲軟的硬木價格壓低了軟木價格，儘管軟木整體基本面強勁。此外，持續不斷的貿易爭端給美元帶來了下行壓力，這對我們的經營業績產生了負面影響。

This US dollar weakness increased our operating costs by almost $11 million compared to Q2. While these uncontrollable factors create significant macroeconomic headwinds for our business, we continue to focus on the things we can control. In this sense, we have made good progress on our mill reliability, and our cost control initiatives are gaining traction.

美元走軟導致我們的營運成本比第二季增加了近 1,100 萬美元。儘管這些不可控因素為我們的業務帶來了巨大的宏觀經濟逆風，但我們將繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情。從這個意義上講，我們在提高工廠可靠性方面取得了良好進展，我們的成本控制措施也正在取得成效。

As a reminder, in the second quarter, we launched a company-wide program aimed at identifying $100 million in cost savings and profitability improvement opportunities by the end of 2026 when compared with 2024. We have named this program One Goal, One Hundred.

提醒一下，我們在第二季度啟動了一項全公司範圍的計劃，旨在到 2026 年底與 2024 年相比，確定 1 億美元的成本節約和盈利能力提昇機會。我們將這個計畫命名為「一個目標，一百人」。

Currently, we expect to achieve $30 million of cost and reliability-related savings by the end of 2025. This initiative also includes targeting working capital reductions of $20 million, as well as $20 million in CapEx reductions relative to our previous 2025 guidance.

目前，我們預計到 2025 年底，在成本和可靠性方面可節省 3,000 萬美元。這項計畫還包括將營運資金減少 2,000 萬美元，以及將資本支出減少 2,000 萬美元（相對於我們先前 2025 年的指引）。

A significant part of the One Goal, One Hundred program relates to reliability improvements that, combined with additional cost savings expected to be realized next year, gives us high confidence that we will reach our $100 million target by the end of 2026. In parallel, our working capital and CapEx reduction plans are tracking as planned.

「一個目標，一百」計畫的重要組成部分是提高可靠性，再加上預計明年將實現的額外成本節約，我們有信心在 2026 年底前實現 1 億美元的目標。同時，我們的營運資金和資本支出削減計畫正按計畫進行。

The trade war has created an unprecedented level of uncertainty in the markets in general. However, we are beginning to have clarity on the direct impacts of tariffs on our business. During the quarter, the US Department of Commerce concluded their Section 232 review on lumber. European lumber is now subject to a 10% tariff, as is Canadian lumber.

貿易戰為整個市場帶來了前所未有的不確定性。然而，我們開始逐漸清楚地了解關稅對我們業務的直接影響。本季度，美國商務部完成了對木材的第 232 條款審查。歐洲木材和加拿大木材現在都要繳納 10% 的關稅。

The 10% incremental tariff on Canadian lumber brings the total duty and tariff impact to about 50% on average for Canadian lumber. As a result, we have already seen Canadian lumber curtailment announcements, and we expect more to come.

對加拿大木材加徵 10% 的關稅，使加拿大木材的總關稅和關稅影響平均達到約 50%。因此，我們已經看到加拿大宣布削減木材產量，預計未來還會有更多此類消息。

This will create a reduced supply of residual chips for pulp mills and will inevitably create pressure on fiber costs. We feel, however, that our Celgar mill is well positioned, given its ability to access the US fiber market and our ability to harvest and process whole logs. Nonetheless, we expect to see some cost inflation.

這將導致紙漿廠剩餘木片的供應減少，並不可避免地對纖維成本造成壓力。不過，我們認為，鑑於 Celgar 工廠能夠進入美國纖維市場，我們有能力收穫和加工整根原木，因此我們的 Celgar 工廠處於有利地位。儘管如此，我們預計成本會出現一些上漲。

On the other hand, our Peace River mill's hardwood supply will not be impacted. Today, our pulp shipments to the US from Canada are not impacted by tariffs as pulp is CUSMA compliant. As mentioned, our main import from the US into Canada is wood chips for our Celgar pulp mill, which today amounts to about 45% of the fiber consumption of the mill. We have the ability to grow this percentage slightly going forward if required. Most importantly, there are no counter tariffs applied to this fiber.

另一方面，我們和平河工廠的硬木供應不會受到影響。目前，我們從加拿大向美國出口的紙漿不受關稅影響，因為紙漿符合美墨加協定 (CUSMA) 的規定。如前所述，我們從美國進口到加拿大的主要原料是木片，用於我們的 Celgar 紙漿廠，目前約佔該廠纖維消耗量的 45%。如有需要，我們有能力在未來略微提高這個比例。最重要的是，這種光纖無需繳納任何反向關稅。

Our EBITDA of negative $28 million reflects 20 days of planned downtime, maintenance downtime, including 16 days at our Rosenthal mill and lower pulp prices in all markets. Overall, pulp markets weakened significantly in the third quarter. Seasonality-driven weak paper demand, combined with low fiber costs in China, contributed to this weakening.

我們的 EBITDA 為負 2800 萬美元，反映了 20 天的計劃內停機、維護停機（包括羅森塔爾工廠的 16 天停機）以及所有市場紙漿價格的下降。整體而言，紙漿市場在第三季大幅走弱。季節性因素導致紙張需求疲軟，加上中國纖維成本低廉，加劇了紙張需求的疲軟。

We believe these market dynamics have also encouraged opportunistic pulp substitution in some paper grades as paper producers are running their machines more slowly, given the overcapacity. In addition, we believe pulp destocking by paper producers is putting additional pressure on pulp prices. At present, we believe paper producers' pulp inventories are low, supported by the availability of prompt delivery pulp.

我們認為，由於產能過剩，造紙商放慢了機器運轉速度，這些市場動態也助長了某些紙張等級中的機會主義紙漿替代現象。此外，我們認為造紙生產商減少紙漿庫存也給紙漿價格帶來了額外的壓力。目前，我們認為造紙生產商的紙漿庫存較低，這得益於紙漿的快速交付。

Looking ahead, we expect to see some modest NBSK price improvements late in Q4 and into Q1 of 2026 as the impact of the announced European NBSK curtailments impact Chinese port stock and the (technical difficulty)

展望未來，我們預計在第四季末和2026年第一季度，NBSK價格將出現小幅上漲，因為歐洲宣布的NBSK減產措施將影響中國港口庫存。（技術難題）

Please stand by. We are experiencing a technical difficulty. Please stand by. Pardon me. This is your host. Please stand by. Your conference will resume momentarily. Thank you for your patience. Your conference will resume momentarily.

請稍候。我們遇到了技術故障。請稍候。對不起。這是您的主持人。請稍候。您的會議即將繼續進行。感謝您的耐心等待。您的會議即將繼續進行。

Richard, I see that you have rejoined. Are you able to hear me, sir?

理查德，我看到你已經重新加入了。先生，您聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, I can.

是的，我可以。

Okay, sir, you may proceed.

好的，先生，您可以繼續了。

Thank you. Thank you, Michelle. Apologies for the disconnect. We don't know exactly what happened. So I'll repeat the last statement. Looking ahead, we expect to see some modest NBSK price improvements late in Q4 and into Q1 of 2026 as the impact of the announced European NBSK curtailments impact Chinese port stock and the impact of delisting of low-quality Russian pulp from Shanghai Futures Exchange is realized.

謝謝。謝謝你，米歇爾。抱歉連線中斷了。我們並不清楚究竟發生了什麼事。所以我再重複一遍剛才的話。展望未來，我們預計在 2026 年 4 月下旬至 2026 年 1 月期間，NBSK 價格將出現一些小幅上漲，因為歐洲宣布的 NBSK 減產措施將對中國港口庫存產生影響，而低品質俄羅斯紙漿從上海期貨交易所退市的影響也將逐漸顯現。

Despite the recent announcement of trade deals, the global trade landscape continues to be unclear. We expect this trade uncertainty will persist at least through the near term, likely keeping commodity prices subdued. However, we remain optimistic that once trade clarity returns, markets will begin to normalize.

儘管近期宣布了一些貿易協議，但全球貿易格局仍然不明朗。我們預計這種貿易不確定性至少在短期內會持續存在，這可能會使大宗商品價格保持低迷。然而，我們仍然樂觀地認為，一旦貿易狀況恢復明朗，市場就會開始正常化。

In total, our pulp production was flat at almost 460,000 tonnes compared to Q2. As part of our objective to keep all of our pulp mills running reliably, we planned major maintenance shutdowns at all mills throughout the year.

與第二季相比，我們的紙漿總產量基本上持平，約 46 萬噸。為了確保所有紙漿廠可靠運行，我們計劃全年對所有工廠進行重大維護停機。

Our Q4 shut schedule has Stendal down for 18 days for about 36,000 tonnes. Our lumber production was down slightly relative to Q2 by about 4% due to maintenance that was scheduled at our Friesau mill. Overall, we are pleased with our lumber production.

我們第四季的停產計畫包括 Stendal 工廠停產 18 天，產量約為 36,000 噸。由於弗里紹工廠計劃進行維護，我們的木材產量與第二季度相比略微下降了約 4%。總體而言，我們對我們的木材產量感到滿意。

And even though the ramp-up of our Torgau mill incremental lumber capacity has been slower than anticipated, we do expect to realize the increased annual capacity rate of about 100,000 cubic meters of dimensional lumber, or roughly 65 million board feet, by the end of the year.

儘管我們托爾高工廠的木材產能成長速度比預期要慢，但我們預計到今年年底，年產能將增加約 10 萬立方公尺規格材，或約 6,500 萬板英尺。

Pulp fiber costs were essentially flat relative to Q2. In Germany, reduced demand for pulp logs pushed fiber prices down modestly, while in Canada, costs were up slightly due to increased logistic costs. However, on the sawlog side, reduced supply due to limited harvesting pushed our fiber costs up as expected compared to Q2.

與第二季相比，紙漿纖維成本基本持平。在德國，紙漿原木需求減少，導致纖維價格小幅下降；而在加拿大，由於物流成本增加，成本略有上漲。然而，在鋸材方面，由於收割量有限導致供應減少，我們的纖維成本如預期般比第二季度上升。

Looking ahead to Q4, we expect fiber costs to increase for both our pulp and sawmill businesses. Our pulp business will be impacted by reduced sawmill residual availability. And our German pulp mills will also face increased seasonal competition for wood chips from biofuel producers, while our German sawmilling business adapts to the impact of reduced harvesting levels.

展望第四季度，我們預期紙漿和鋸木廠業務的纖維成本都會增加。鋸木廠剩餘原料供應減少將對我們的紙漿業務造成影響。我們的德國紙漿廠也將面臨來自生物燃料生產商日益激烈的季節性木片競爭，而我們的德國鋸木廠業務也在適應採伐量減少的影響。

In Germany, we expect harvesting levels to improve as the lumber market improves, while in Canada, lower fiber availability will keep prices under pressure on fiber unless the demand side of the equation changes.

在德國，我們預計隨著木材市場的改善，採伐量將會提高；而在加拿大，除非需求方面發生變化，否則纖維供應減少將使纖維價格持續承壓。

The business environment for our solid wood segment was consistent with Q2. Our solid wood segment continues to be held back by a weak European economy and the impact of high interest rates on the construction industry and high mortgage rates despite some modest price improvements on certain grades in the US lumber market.

我們實木業務板塊的商業環境與第二季保持一致。儘管美國木材市場某些等級的價格略有上漲，但由於歐洲經濟疲軟、高利率對建築業的影響以及高抵押貸款利率，我們的實木業務仍然受到阻礙。

This segment is also facing the impact of higher wood costs in the short term. As a result, our solid wood segment posted a negative EBITDA of $9 million in Q3 with essentially flat lumber pricing and sustained weak demand for pallets.

短期內，該領域也面臨木材價格上漲的影響。因此，由於木材價格基本上持平，托盤需求持續疲軟，我們的實木業務部門第三季 EBITDA 為負 900 萬美元。

Given the many economic forces affecting US construction activity, US lumber pricing could be volatile in the short term. Currently, weak housing construction due to high mortgage rates is a headwind, but the implementation of significantly higher antidumping and countervailing duties is expected to push lumber prices up as the resulting production capacity reductions begin to materialize. However, the market has been slow to react due to large volumes of lumber being shipped prior to the implementation of the higher duties and tariffs.

鑑於影響美國建築活動的許多經濟因素，美國木材價格短期內可能會出現波動。目前，由於抵押貸款利率高企，房屋建設疲軟是一個不利因素，但隨著大幅提高的反傾銷稅和反補貼稅的實施，預計由此導致的產能下降將推高木材價格。然而，由於在實施更高關稅之前已有大量木材出貨，市場反應遲緩。

In contrast, we expect modest upward pricing pressure in the European market, primarily due to increasing sawlog prices. However, any meaningful long-term improvement in either the European or US markets remain dependent on improved economic conditions and lower interest rates.

相較之下，我們預期歐洲市場價格上漲壓力將較為溫和，主要原因是原木價格上漲。然而，歐洲或美國市場的任何有意義的長期改善仍然取決於經濟狀況的改善和利率的降低。

The cost-competitive configuration we have in Friesau gives us the flexibility to maintain a strong presence in Europe and the US, while also serving a quality-sensitive Japanese market. In Q3, 44% of our lumber volume was sold in the US as we continue to optimize our mix for products and target markets to current conditions.

我們在弗里紹採用的成本具有競爭力的配置，使我們能夠靈活地在歐洲和美國保持強大的市場地位，同時也能服務於對品質要求較高的日本市場。第三季度，我們44%的木材銷售銷售至美國，我們將繼續根據當前情況優化產品組合和目標市場。

Looking forward, we believe the US lumber market will be driven by favorable homeowner demographics. Additionally, factors that we believe will improve lumber market dynamics include potential Canadian sawmill curtailments in the aftermath of higher softwood lumber duties and relatively low housing stock. Combined, we expect these factors will put sustained positive pressure on the supply-demand balance of this business in the short to midterm.

展望未來，我們認為美國木材市場將受到有利的房主人口結構因素的推動。此外，我們認為，提高軟木材關稅和相對較低的房屋存量可能會導致加拿大鋸木廠減產，這些因素將改善木材市場動態。綜合來看，我們預期這些因素將在短期至中期內對該產業的供需平衡產生持續的正面壓力。

European shipping pallet markets remain weak with pricing staying generally flat due to the overhang of the European economy, particularly in Germany. However, once the economy begins to recover, we expect pallet prices to recover towards more historical levels, allowing Torgau to deliver significant shareholder value.

由於歐洲經濟，特別是德國經濟的疲軟態勢，歐洲貨運托盤市場依然疲軟，價格整體保持穩定。然而，一旦經濟開始復甦，我們預計托盤價格將回升至更接近歷史水平，從而使 Torgau 能夠為股東創造顯著價值。

We're optimistic we will see that recovery start in 2026. As a reminder, a $1 per pallet increase or roughly 10% will put our pallet business into a clear positive cash flow position. Heating pallets prices were flat relative to Q2. We expect demand and prices to be slightly higher in Q4 due to higher seasonal demand and supply concerns as a result of higher German fiber costs.

我們樂觀地認為，經濟復甦將於2026年開始。再次提醒，每托盤價格上漲 1 美元（約 10%）將使我們的托盤業務實現明顯的正現金流。加熱托盤的價格與第二季相比持平。由於德國纖維成本上漲導致季節性需求增加和供應擔憂，我們預計第四季度需求和價格將略有上漲。

With regards to our mass timber business, we continue to see a steady volume of incoming project inquiries. In the last two quarters, the potential sales volumes of these inquiries have been about $400 million and equate to well over 100 projects per quarter.

就我們的大宗木材業務而言，我們持續收到穩定的專案諮詢量。在過去的兩個季度中，這些詢價的潛在銷售額約為 4 億美元，相當於每季超過 100 個項目。

And as a result, our order book continues to grow. The projects we're bidding on and winning today are meant to be constructed about nine months from now or well into 2026. We expect revenue will start picking up momentum now to the point that we're planning on ramping up one of our facilities to two shifts in the early part of 2026. Today, our mass timber backlog of projects sits at about $80 million.

因此，我們的訂單量持續成長。我們今天競標並得標的項目，預計在九個月後或2026年下半年動工。我們預計收入將開始加速成長，因此我們計劃在 2026 年初將我們的一家工廠的產能提升至兩班制。目前，我們的大批量木材項目積壓金額約為 8000 萬美元。

We remain confident that the environmental, economic, speed of construction and aesthetic benefits of mass timber will allow this building product to grow in popularity at a pace similar to what happened in Europe.

我們仍然相信，大體量木材在環境、經濟、施工速度和美觀方面的優勢，將使這種建築產品以類似歐洲的速度流行起來。

We're also seeing increasing interest for data center construction applications in an effort to reduce the carbon footprint of these facilities. This is exciting for us because we're well positioned to capture this growth due to the location of our industry-leading North American capacity and our technical capabilities. As a result, we are highly confident in this business being a growth engine for Mercer.

我們也看到，人們對資料中心建設應用越來越感興趣，希望藉此減少這些設施的碳足跡。這對我們來說令人興奮，因為憑藉我們行業領先的北美產能和技術能力，我們完全有能力抓住這一成長機會。因此，我們對這項業務成為美世成長引擎充滿信心。

We have roughly 30% of North American cross-laminated timber production capacity, a broad range of product offerings, including design assist and installation services, and a large geographic footprint with manufacturing sites in the Northwest, as well as the Southeast, giving us competitive access to the entire North American market.

我們擁有北美約 30% 的交叉層壓木材生產能力，提供廣泛的產品，包括設計協助和安裝服務，並且擁有廣泛的地域覆蓋，在西北部和東南部均設有生產基地，這使我們能夠以具有競爭力的方式進入整個北美市場。

In light of the ongoing economic uncertainties, our planned CapEx spend is about $100 million in 2025. This capital budget is heavily weighted to maintenance, environmental and safety projects that includes both Torgau's lumber expansion project and Celgar's recently completed woodroom project.

鑑於當前經濟情勢的不確定性，我們計劃在 2025 年投入約 1 億美元用於資本支出。此資本預算的重點是維護、環境和安全項目，其中包括 Torgau 的木材擴建項目和 Celgar 最近完成的木材加工廠項目。

While we're still early in our planning, we expect 2026 CapEx to be meaningfully lower than our 2025 spend as we prioritize our liquidity through this trough. We're in the process of conducting a FEL-2 engineering review for a potential carbon capture project at our Peace River mill.

雖然我們的規劃還處於早期階段，但我們預計 2026 年的資本支出將比 2025 年的支出大幅降低，因為我們將優先保障這段低谷時期的流動性。我們正在對位於和平河工廠的潛在碳捕獲項目進行 FEL-2 工程審查。

This project is a few years away from potential completion, but we're excited about the prospective economic benefits such a venture could bring to this mill. We remain committed to our 2030 carbon reduction targets and believe our products form part of the climate change solution.

這個項目距離最終完成還有幾年時間，但我們對這個項目可能為這家工廠帶來的經濟效益感到非常興奮。我們仍然致力於實現2030年碳減排目標，並相信我們的產品是應對氣候變遷解決方案的一部分。

We also believe that products like mass timber, green energy, lumber, pulp and lignin will play important roles in displacing carbon-intensive products, products like concrete and steel for construction or plastic for packaging.

我們也認為，大塊木材、綠色能源、木材、紙漿和木質素等產品將在取代高碳排放產品方面發揮重要作用，例如用於建築的混凝土和鋼鐵，或用於包裝的塑膠。

In addition, the potential demand for sustainable fossil fuel substitutes is significant and has the potential to be transformative to the wood products industry. As a result, we remain bullish on the long-term value of our products and what they can bring to society and our stakeholders.

此外，對永續化石燃料替代品的潛在需求龐大，有可能對木材產品產業產生變革性影響。因此，我們仍然對我們產品的長期價值以及它們能為社會和我們的利害關係人帶來的價值充滿信心。

Overall, our Q3 operating results were disappointing, driven by a number of industry headwinds. These headwinds are expected to persist in the fourth quarter. And as a result, we're taking further actions as liquidity remains our top priority.

整體而言，受許多產業不利因素的影響，我們第三季的經營業績令人失望。預計這些不利因素將在第四季持續存在。因此，我們將採取進一步措施，因為流動性仍然是我們的首要任務。

While we have made good progress on advancing our One Goal, One Hundred program and remain committed to rebalancing our portfolio of assets, we're also implementing decisive measures to support our liquidity position.

雖然我們在推動「一個目標，一百個資產」計劃方面取得了良好進展，並且仍然致力於重新平衡我們的資產組合，但我們也正在採取果斷措施來支持我們的流動性狀況。

These steps include further cost reductions, capital expenditure reductions and other working capital measures that combined will improve our balance sheet. Above all, we are committed to prudent financial management.

這些措施包括進一步降低成本、減少資本支出和其他營運資金措施，這些措施結合起來將改善我們的資產負債表。最重要的是，我們致力於審慎的財務管理。

Finally, the headwinds facing our industry have proven to be both longer and more severe than many anticipated. Global trade tensions haven't helped in this regard. However, our experienced management team has navigated through previous commodity downturns, and we have strong assets in our portfolio that will allow us to weather the storm.

最後，事實證明，我們行業面臨的逆風比許多人預期的持續時間更長、更嚴重。全球貿易緊張局勢在這方面並沒有起到幫助作用。然而，我們經驗豐富的管理團隊已經成功應對了以往的大宗商品低迷時期，而且我們的投資組合中擁有強大的資產，這將使我們能夠渡過難關。

I am also encouraged by the fact that today's weak commodity cycle is validating our long-term strategic plan, which revolves around transforming our pulp mills into biorefineries with additional revenue streams that can not only help balance our product mix but grant us further resilience during the pulp down cycles.

令我感到鼓舞的是，當前疲軟的大宗商品週期驗證了我們的長期戰略計劃，該計劃的核心是將我們的紙漿廠改造成生物煉製廠，增加收入來源，這不僅有助於平衡我們的產品組合，還能在紙漿行業低迷時期增強我們的韌性。

As such, we have made very good progress on this transformation with our lignin pilot plant in Rosenthal, a carbon capture pilot plant in Peace River and the work that we're doing in Stendal on sustainable aviation fuel.

因此，我們在羅森塔爾的木質素試驗工廠、和平河的碳捕獲試驗工廠以及我們在施滕達爾開展的可持續航空燃料研究方面，都取得了非常好的進展。

We will navigate through these turbulent times and implement our strategic plan by transforming our pulp mills into biorefineries. Thanks again for listening, and I will now turn the call back to the operator for questions. Thank you.

我們將克服這些動盪時期，透過將我們的紙漿廠改造成生物煉製廠來實施我們的戰略計劃。再次感謝您的收聽，現在我將把電話轉回給接線員，回答您的問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Sean Steuart, TD Cowen.

（操作說明）肖恩·斯圖爾特，TD Cowen。

Thank you. Good morning. Juan Carlos, I appreciate all the points on cost savings initiatives, working capital reductions and lower CapEx. Wondering if you can give some perspective on thinking around potential asset sales to expedite deleveraging on the balance sheet. Anything under consideration? And can you give us a sense of the scale?

謝謝。早安.胡安·卡洛斯，我非常同意你提出的所有關於節約成本、減少營運資金和降低資本支出的觀點。想請教您，能否就潛在的資產出售以加快資產負債表去槓桿化提供一些見解？有什麼正在考慮的嗎？您能為我們描述一下規模嗎？

Absolutely, Sean. Yeah, we've been looking at this in detail for the last few months. At this point, we're not at liberty to disclose anything. We do recognize, however, that the current market environment is not ideal for us for divestitures.

當然，肖恩。是的，過去幾個月我們一直在詳細研究這個問題。目前，我們不便透露任何資訊。但我們確實意識到，目前的市場環境並不適合我們進行資產剝離。

Okay. And on the broader softwood pulp market, it's an extended trough. Mill inventories still look really high. We're closer to the bottom (technical difficulty) Can you give perspective on how much capacity you think needs to be taken out permanently to right-size the industry to what demand will normalize to over the next few years?

好的。而就更廣泛的軟木漿市場而言，這是一個持續低迷的時期。工廠庫存仍然很高。我們離底部越來越近了（技術難題）。您能否就未來幾年內需求恢復正常水平後，行業規模需要永久性削減多少產能來調整到合適的水平給出一些看法？

Yeah, Sean, it's a very good question, not easy to answer with a precise number. We do see -- we have seen along the year several mills curtailing and curtailing for extended period of time. We know about a few in Finland specifically that were down for probably more than six months of the year.

是的，肖恩，這是一個很好的問題，很難用精確的數字來回答。我們確實看到——在過去一年中，我們已經看到一些工廠減產，並且減產時間延長。我們知道芬蘭有幾家公司，一年中可能有超過六個月的時間都處於停駛狀態。

And while those are important steps, they do not end up making the impact or having the impact as an announcement of a full closure will have as they are obviously temporary situations. We do think that given how long this trough has been and even though we do believe that we're, as you said, in the bottom of the price curve, there should be closures of pulp mills.

雖然這些措施很重要，但它們最終不會像宣布全面關閉那樣產生影響，因為它們顯然是暫時的措施。我們認為，鑑於此次低迷期已經持續了這麼長時間，儘管我們相信，正如你所說，我們正處於價格曲線的底部，但紙漿廠應該關閉。

We wouldn't be surprised if either some of the Finnish mills or the Canadian mills that have bigger situations or bigger problems to deal with access to fiber would be going belly-up.

如果一些芬蘭的紡織廠或一些加拿大的紡織廠，因為面臨更大的困境或更大的纖維取得問題而倒閉，我們不會感到驚訝。

The situation in Canada is obviously very complicated in the back of the additional tariffs. We've seen the announcements of several closures of sawmills, which -- as we already know and have said, that puts pressure on fiber on a market that is already tight on fiber, particularly in BC.

由於額外關稅的影響，加拿大的局勢顯然非常複雜。我們已經看到幾家鋸木廠宣布關閉，正如我們已經知道和說過的那樣，這會給本已供應緊張的纖維市場帶來壓力，尤其是在不列顛哥倫比亞省。

I think that gains a significant -- very strong significance. So we see those conditions in BC at least deteriorating significantly with the introduction of these tariffs and additional countervailing duties. As we said, in the case of Celgar, because of our location and because of our strategy, the fact that we're less dependent on that BC fiber gives us that edge.

我認為這具有非常重要的意義。因此，我們看到，隨著這些關稅和額外反補貼稅的引入，至少在BC省，這些情況正在顯著惡化。正如我們所說，就 Celgar 而言，由於我們的地理位置和策略，我們對 BC 光纖的依賴程度較低，這使我們擁有了優勢。

But obviously, that's not the case for many others in the interior of the province. So yes, again, in Germany, we have the advantage of having a forest around us. And even though the costs are going up, it's still fiber that we can access and have assets that are very competitive and they can still make money in these conditions, different from the Finnish mills or the Swedish mills that are facing very, very high wood costs in their normal traditional fiber baskets.

但顯然，對於該省內陸地區的許多其他人來說，情況並非如此。所以，是的，在德國，我們再次擁有被森林環繞的優勢。儘管成本不斷上漲，但我們仍然可以獲得纖維，並且擁有極具競爭力的資產，即使在這樣的條件下，他們仍然可以賺錢，這與芬蘭或瑞典的工廠不同，後者在其傳統的纖維業務中面臨著非常非常高的木材成本。

That's useful detail. That's all I have for now. Thanks very much.

這是個很有用的細節。我目前就只有這些。非常感謝。

Thank you, Sean.

謝謝你，肖恩。

Sandy Burns, Stifel.

Sandy Burns，Stifel。

Hi, good morning. I'm hoping you could talk a little bit more about the substitution issues that you mentioned this quarter. I mean, it's certainly been an ongoing issue for the industry. Would you say, the increase, is it more region-specific or end user specific? And maybe tied into that also, at what differential do you think that substitution then may abate?

您好，早安。我希望您能再詳細談談您在本季提到的替代問題。我的意思是，這無疑是該行業一直存在的問題。您認為這種成長更多是地域性的還是最終用戶性的？或許也與此相關，你認為這個替代效應會在什麼價差下減弱？

Yes, Sandy, very good question. As you well said, substitution has been going on for several years now. This is not a new concept. This is not something that we have not seen before. That's part of the growth that we all see in hardwood is on the back of substitution.

是的，桑迪，問得好。正如你所說，這種人員替換已經持續好幾年了。這並非一個新概念。這並非我們第一次見到這種情況。我們看到硬木產業的成長，部分原因在於替代效應。

And yeah, that's a reality and has been with us for several years. What is probably different this time around is that over the past few years, I think everybody has -- or paper producers of all kinds have taken their furnace to what they believe would be their limits on taking advantage of those price differentials between the two fibers.

是的，這的確是現實，而且已經持續好幾年了。這次可能不同的是，在過去的幾年裡，我認為每個人——或者說各種造紙商——都已經將他們的熔爐用到了他們認為利用這兩種纖維之間價格差異的極限。

Now, as that differential has grown significantly and well above what we've seen in previous years, then that kind of puts it to another level and another test of, okay, we thought we've done everything, can we do anything more?

現在，由於這一差距已經顯著擴大，遠遠超過了我們往年所看到的差距，這就把問題提升到了另一個層次，也對未來提出了新的考驗：好吧，我們以為我們已經竭盡全力了，還能做些什麼呢？

And I think that's what we've seen happening not only in Europe, we've seen that happening in China as well, where that price differential of $200 per tonne would allow them to -- would allow some of the producers to say, okay, well, now we're going to use less softwood and add more chemicals.

我認為，這種情況不僅在歐洲發生，在中國也發生了，每噸 200 美元的價格差異會讓一些生產商說，好吧，現在我們要減少軟木的使用，增加化學品的使用。

Or now that, again, there's a lot of capacity out there with machines running slowly, then that gives them the opportunity also to reduce the amount of softwood naturally. So those additional measures of adding chemicals or doing -- or taking things beyond the limits is what we see with this $200 price.

或者說，現在又有很多產能，但機器運轉緩慢，這也給了他們一個機會，可以自然地減少軟木的數量。所以，我們看到的200美元的價格，就是透過添加化學物質或採取其他措施——或者說，透過超越限制來實現的。

Now, it does have an impact, and we've discussed this with certain customers. It does have an impact on the end quality of the product. So there's limits to that. If you think about a paper towel that you buy, traditionally, if they were to just reduce even further the softwood, then the absorbency of the paper towel would not be the same. The properties would not be the same, and the customers would understand that the product has changed and the quality has deteriorated.

現在，這確實會產生影響，我們已經和一些客戶討論過這個問題。這確實會對產品的最終品質產生影響。所以這種做法也是有限制的。想想你平常買的紙巾，傳統上，如果他們進一步減少軟木的用量，那麼紙巾的吸水性就會不一樣了。產品特性將不再相同，顧客會明白產品已經改變，品質也下降了。

So there is a limit to it. What we've seen in terms of substitution recently with this $200 gap is about 2%. That's how we've measured it. When we look at our European customers and how much has gone, as we talk to them about how much they have changed, that's the dimension of it, 2% given this $200. But again, as you said at the beginning, this is on top of the substitution that has already been taking place for several years, which is, I think, on percentages much bigger than that.

所以它也是有限度的。最近我們看到，在這 200 美元的差距下，替代率約為 2%。我們就是這樣測量的。當我們審視我們的歐洲客戶以及他們所經歷的變化，當我們與他們交談，了解他們發生了多大的變化時，這就是問題的嚴重性，考慮到這 200 美元，2% 的增長率。但是，正如你一開始所說，這還不包括已經持續數年的球員替換，我認為替換的比例要大得多。

So do we see that maintaining? Well, we already are starting to see the gap closing a little bit. Hardwood is gaining some traction. There is some order around how hardwood producers are being able to push prices up. Still very little, $20 here and there, but it's a trend that is obviously encouraging.

所以我們是否看到了維持現狀？嗯，我們已經開始看到差距略有縮小了。硬木地板正逐漸受到歡迎。硬木生產商推高價格的方式有一定的規律可循。雖然金額仍然很少，零星只有 20 美元左右，但這顯然是一個令人鼓舞的趨勢。

If we close that gap to the $170s, $150s, then that -- the use of chemicals and the use of these things, these extreme measures, we don't see them continuing, and there could be more of a going back to where we were before the $200 gap.

如果我們能將差距縮小到 170 美元、150 美元，那麼——化學品的使用以及這些極端措施的使用——我們就看不到它們繼續下去了，而且我們可能會回到 200 美元差距出現之前的狀態。

And I guess, related to that, whether Mercer or other NBSK producers like just further discounted NBSK to close the gap and then at least get the volume, although at much lower margins?

我想，與此相關的是，Mercer 或其他 NBSK 生產商是否會進一步降低 NBSK 的價格來縮小差距，從而至少獲得銷量，儘管利潤率要低得多？

Obviously, when hardwood prices are that low, it puts a cap on softwood. When you think about a year ago, what everybody was talking about was that the softwood market was very tight and that there was no reason for softwood prices to deteriorate because it was just very, very tight.

顯然，當硬木價格如此之低時，軟木的價格也會受到限制。回想一年前，大家都在談論軟木市場供應非常緊張，軟木價格沒有理由下跌，因為供應實在非常非常緊張。

Then we got into a situation where hardwood continued to drop -- continue to drop and it pulls softwood down naturally. So I think that's a big element of the whole equation. It doesn't pull it completely down, and that's why the gap increases so much because there's some resilience in pulp.

然後我們就遇到了這樣的情況：硬木不斷下沉──不斷下沉，自然而然地把軟木也拉了下來。所以我認為這是整個問題中的一個重要因素。它不會完全將其拉下來，這就是為什麼縫隙會增加這麼多，因為紙漿有一定的彈性。

Otherwise, it would fall just as hardwood falls. It maintains certain value in it, and that's why that gap increases to $200 precisely because there's that inherent value in the softwood fiber. So we do feel that obviously, it's independent decisions on producers, whether they want to sacrifice price for volume.

否則，它就會像硬木一樣倒下。它本身俱有一定的價值，正因為軟木纖維具有這種內在價值，所以價格差距才會增加到 200 美元。因此我們認為，是否願意為了銷售而犧牲價格，顯然是生產者自己的獨立決定。

We have our own policy on it, and we know that we can sell everything that we produce. We have very good relationship with customers for many, many years, and that gives us that confidence and doesn't put us in a situation where we're forced to do things that we shouldn't be doing from a price perspective. So yeah, that's about that.

我們對此有自己的政策，我們知道我們生產的所有產品都能賣出去。多年來，我們與客戶保持著非常好的關係，這給了我們信心，也讓我們不會被迫去做一些在價格上不該做的事情。嗯，大概就是這樣。

Okay. And maybe a last one for me, shifting gears on the liquidity front, you mentioned asset sales. Any other liquidity-enhancing actions you could be considering? And I know, on the last call, in terms of minimum liquidity, you felt it was a long way from being uncomfortable.

好的。或許我還有一個問題，關於流動性方面，您提到了資產出售。還有其他可以考慮的增強流動性的措施嗎？我知道，在上一次通話中，就最低流動性而言，你覺得離感到不舒服還差得很遠。

How are you feeling about it now? Have you maybe had to start discussions with banks about maintaining liquidity during this rough period for the company and industry?

你現在感覺如何？在公司和產業面臨困境的這段時期，您是否需要與銀行展開討論，以維持流動性？

Yeah. We've started some of those discussions. We started discussions. For example, we have revolving facilities that are due in '27 that need to be renewed. We've started those conversations, and those are going very well.

是的。我們已經開始進行一些相關的討論。我們開始了討論。例如，我們有一些將於 2027 年到期的循環信貸額度需要續約。我們已經開始了這些對話，而且進展得非常順利。

There's no reason to believe that we won't be able to renew those if we decide to go for that. Also, looking at the senior notes coming in '28 and '29, there's still runway for them, but we're not necessarily waiting for all that runway to expire.

沒有理由相信如果我們決定這樣做，我們就無法續簽這些合約。此外，看看 2028 年和 2029 年即將到期的優先票據，它們還有時間，但我們不一定要等到所有這些時間都到期。

We're acting upon those things. So yes, we're looking at all the things that we have to do preemptively so that we don't let time go by and take us by surprise. We know that it's a complicated market that we're dealing with. We know that asset divestitures is part of the options that are out there.

我們正在採取相應行動。所以，是的，我們正在考慮所有需要提前做好的事情，以免時間流逝，讓我們措手不及。我們知道我們所處的市場非常複雜。我們知道，資產剝離是可供選擇的方案之一。

As I mentioned before, anybody would say today that probably the conditions are not the best for you to go out and try to sell something. Nonetheless, obviously, we look at options and are actively working on things, looking at what can be done on that end.

正如我之前提到的，現在任何人都會說，現在的條件可能不太適合你出去推銷東西。不過，很顯然，我們會考慮各種方案，並積極進行相關工作，研究這方面可以做些什麼。

But in the meantime, it's all about reducing the other things that we can reduce that are significant, focusing on working capital, and there's good progress that we've made. Same thing on CapEx. There's still room for us to reduce CapEx and focus basically on maintenance and leave some of those growth projects for later.

但同時，我們也要努力減少其他一些重要的開支，並專注於營運資金，而且我們已經取得了不錯的進展。資本支出方面也是如此。我們仍有空間減少資本支出，主要集中在維護方面，並將一些成長項目留到以後再做。

So yes, there's things that we can do other than the usual cost reductions that are obviously in full motion already since the second quarter.

所以，是的，除了從第二季開始就全面實施的常規成本削減措施之外，我們還可以做一些其他事情。

Okay, great, thank you. And good luck with everything.

好的，太好了，謝謝。祝你一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hamir Patel, CIBC Capital Markets.

Hamir Patel，加拿大帝國商業銀行資本市場。

Hi, good morning. Juan Carlos, you indicated looking at reducing CapEx. What do you -- for 2026, what sort of range of CapEx outcomes that you could see?

您好，早安。胡安·卡洛斯，你曾表示正在考慮減少資本支出。您認為 2026 年資本支出結果可能會呈現怎樣的趨勢？

Hamir, it's Rich. We're sort of starting around $75 million, but we're looking to see if we can reduce that as well. So that's probably the ballpark we're going to play in for next year.

哈米爾，是里奇。我們最初的預算大概是7500萬美元，但我們也在考慮能否降低這個數字。所以這大概就是我們明年要達到的目標水準。

Okay, great. Thanks, Richard. And then, I guess, related to that, how should we think about the planned shuts for 2026? And is there any sort of maybe room to stretch some of those out?

好的，太好了。謝謝你，理查。那麼，我想，與此相關的是，我們應該如何看待 2026 年的計畫停工呢？有沒有可能把其中一些方案延長一些？

Yeah. In fact, for example, in 2026, we won't have a shut in Stendal. Stendal is under an 18 month cycle, an 18 month cycle that we're actually reviewing whether it could be a 2 year cycle. We were actually thinking about that for this particular year, but we decided to keep the 18 months. Otherwise, we wouldn't be having a shutdown right now.

是的。事實上，例如，到 2026 年，我們將不會有關閉的施滕達爾。Stendal 目前採用 18 個月的周期，我們正在審查是否可以將其改為 2 年的周期。我們其實也考慮過今年要不要這樣做，但我們決定還是保留 18 個月。否則，我們現在就不會面臨停工了。

So, that is good news for 2026, no shutdown in Stendal. On the other mills, Celgar is on an 18 month shutdown. And Peace River, we're looking to also moving a little bit beyond the traditional 12 months that we have for that mill. So yeah, we're stretching things on shutdowns for next year.

所以，對於 2026 年來說是個好消息，施滕達爾不會停工。Celgar 的其他工廠已停產 18 個月。對於 Peace River，我們也希望突破目前工廠傳統的 12 個月生產週期。是的，我們正在推遲明年的停工計畫。

Great, thanks, that's all I had. I'll turn it over.

太好了，謝謝，我只有這些了。我把它翻過來。

Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

Matthew McKellar，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Good morning. Thanks for all the details so far. Just one for me. How would you describe the industry supply-demand balance in North American mass timber right now? And with recent changes in capacity and the demand inflection we're seeing, what are your expectations for how that trends into 2026? Thanks very much.

早安.感謝您目前提供的所有詳細資訊。我只留一個。您如何描述目前北美大宗木材產業的供需平衡狀況？鑑於近期產能的變化以及我們所看到的市場需求拐點，您對 2026 年的發展趨勢有何預期？非常感謝。

Thank you, Matthew. As I was mentioning, or we were mentioning before, we're pretty excited about how we see mass timber developing. The amount of project inquiries, the amount of biddings that we're participating that I already talked about is very encouraging.

謝謝你，馬修。正如我之前提到的，或者我們之前提到的，我們對大規模木結構的發展前景感到非常興奮。正如我之前提到的，我們收到的項目諮詢數量和參與的投標數量都非常令人鼓舞。

Probably the biggest element there, and I think it's of incredible significance, is the AI data centers and all the transformative AI investments that are coming through. To give you some order of magnitude, when you think about the hyperscalers, I'm talking about the Googles, the Amazons, the Metas, those companies, the Amazons, their plan for the next four years includes a $2.6 trillion investment in construction of data centers.

其中最重要的因素，我認為也是極為重要的因素，就是人工智慧資料中心以及所有正在湧現的變革性人工智慧投資。為了讓你們對規模有個概念，當你們想到超大規模資料中心營運商時，我指的是Google、亞馬遜、Metas這些公司，亞馬遜在未來四年的計畫包括投資2.6兆美元用於資料中心建設。

So this is a massive amount of business that is going to come into North America. I don't think that right now, there is capacity installed that would be able to not even get close to serving the demand that will be coming.

所以，這將有大量的業務湧入北美。我認為目前已安裝的產能根本無法滿足即將到來的需求。

When we see the actions from other competitors, we see already the addition of some capacity coming next year, which will be very well absorbed with the market growing -- if you think for a minute, our own results, we were going to be moving from $50 million -- let's say, let's call it, $60 million this year to $130 million next year of sales.

從其他競爭對手的行動來看，我們已經看到明年將增加一些產能，隨著市場成長，這些產能將被很好地消化——想想我們自己的業績，我們今年的銷售額將達到 5000 萬美元，比如說，6000 萬美元，明年將達到 1.3 億美元。

And we're going to be doing second shift now in one of our mills and probably in one of our other assets as well during the course of the year. It just proves that there is an incredible demand that we will need to serve, and we all would need to shape up and do our best.

我們現在將在我們的一家工廠實行第二班制，而且可能在今年晚些時候，我們的另一個資產也將實行第二班制。這正好證明我們需要滿足龐大的需求，我們所有人都需要振作起來，做到最好。

Keep in mind, and this is important, over the last couple of years, as Europe has been more mature and those mills in Europe are running or have been running at full capacity for now several years, they've seen opportunities to direct some of their volumes to North America.

請記住這一點，這一點很重要，在過去的幾年裡，隨著歐洲的經濟發展日趨成熟，歐洲的工廠已經滿負荷運轉或已經滿負荷運轉了好幾年，他們看到了將部分產量轉移到北美的機會。

Even though they're shipping across the Atlantic at very high cost, it has been a good business for them. It keeps them running at full speed rather than slowing down. Well, now what they are seeing is that they have to pay 15% tariff, and their currency is 15% more expensive now. So that puts them at a lower competitiveness versus where they were just a year ago.

儘管跨大西洋運輸成本很高，但這對他們來說仍然是一筆不錯的生意。這樣可以讓他們保持全速運轉，而不是減速。現在他們看到的是，他們必須支付 15% 的關稅，而且他們的貨幣也貶值了 15%。因此，與一年前相比，他們的競爭力有所下降。

That is significant because that means there's going to be less product coming from Europe, more pressure on North American producers to cope with that demand that is -- that will continue to grow at a very good pace.

這意義重大，因為這意味著來自歐洲的產品將會減少，北美生產商將面臨更大的壓力來應對這種需求——這種需求將繼續以非常好的速度成長。

Again, the way these -- we have obviously very good connections with some of these hyperscalers. We're active with some of the projects that they're bringing to the market. We have gained some of those projects already. We have secured some of those projects.

再說一遍，我們與其中一些超大規模資料中心營運商有著非常良好的聯繫。我們積極參與他們推向市場的一些項目。我們已經拿下其中一些項目了。我們已經拿下其中一些項目。

Those are part of our backlog and part of our order book. So yeah, it's very encouraging. That's all I can say for that. And again, AI being a very, very significant driver for this.

這些都是我們積壓訂單和已下單訂單的一部分。是的，這非常令人鼓舞。我只能說這麼多了。人工智慧再次成為推動這現象的一個非常重要的因素。

Very helpful. Thanks very much. I'll bring it back.

很有幫助。非常感謝。我會把它帶回來。

(Operator Instructions) Cole Hathorn, Jefferies.

（操作說明）科爾·哈索恩，傑富瑞。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I've got three on my side. I'll take them one by one. The first on any items that you're expecting into the fourth quarter around kind of energy rebates and things like that from the German government for kind of energy-consuming industries. I'm just wondering if there's anything that we should be thinking about for your business for the fourth quarter, which might be positive.

早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。我這邊有三個人支持我。我會一個一個處理。首先，您預計第四季度德國政府將為能源消耗型產業提供能源補貼等措施。我只是想問一下，對於貴公司第四季的發展，有沒有什麼值得我們關注的正面因素？

Please stand by. We are experiencing a technical difficulty. Please stand by. Pardon me. This is your host. Please stand by. Your conference will resume momentarily.

請稍候。我們遇到了技術故障。請稍候。對不起。這是您的主持人。請稍候。您的會議即將繼續進行。

Richard, I see that you have rejoined. Are you able to hear me?

理查德，我看到你已經重新加入了。你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Sorry, folks.

抱歉，各位。

Okay. You may proceed.

好的。您可以繼續。

Apologies, Cole. I don't know what's happening today, but anyway.

抱歉，科爾。我不知道今天發生了什麼事，不過算了。

No problem. Let me start again.

沒問題。讓我重新開始。

Reflection of the markets.

反映市場狀況。

Richard, maybe you could help with one on any rebates or items that we should think about on the energy side in your German business. Is there anything like that we should expect in the fourth quarter?

理查德，或許你可以幫我們解答一下，關於你在德國的業務中，能源方面有哪些回扣或我們應該考慮的項目。第四季是否會出現類似的情況？

No, no rebates.

不，沒有退款。

Then, following on, on Germany on the lower -- well, elevated wood costs, you're referring to kind of the sawlog prices. Could you give a little bit of color on what you're seeing on the wood chips on that side?

然後，接著說說德國較低的——嗯，較高的木材成本，你指的是鋸材價格。你能描述一下你在那一側的木屑上看到的顏色嗎？

Absolutely, Cole. On the wood chips, the situation is, right now, the pallets or the biofuels are being sold at pretty good price levels. They're above EUR300 per tonne. That means that the pallet producers are able to buy wood chips at much higher prices than what we are able to buy. And therefore, they're taking obviously a significant piece of the equation and putting a lot of pressure on us when we go to those same sawmills and ask for our chips.

當然，科爾。目前木屑的情況是，托盤或生質燃料的售價相當不錯。它們的價格超過每噸300歐元。這意味著托盤生產商能夠以比我們高得多的價格購買木屑。因此，很明顯，他們佔據了等式中的重要部分，當我們去那些鋸木廠索取木屑時，他們會給我們很大的壓力。

So that is basically what's creating that increased volatility in prices for wood chips for pulp specifically. It's the impact of wood pallets. That's -- we'll have to wait and see how the winter plays out. If those conditions will persist or if it's a milder winter, those conditions will reverse quickly. We've seen these fluctuations before.

所以，這基本上就是造成紙漿用木片價格波動加劇的原因。這是木托盤的影響。那——我們只能拭目以待，看看這個冬天會如何發展。如果這些情況持續下去，或者如果冬季氣溫偏暖，這些情況將很快逆轉。我們以前也曾經遇到過這種波動。

We don't see them as structural changes. It's one business taking advantage of a very particular situation.

我們不認為這是結構性變化。這是某家企業利用特殊情況獲利的案例。

And then, we've seen West Fraser Timber, unfortunately, closing a sawmill in British Columbia that was announcing it yesterday. I'm just wondering how many do you need to see close before you kind of have that tipping point where too many wood chips are removed from the British Columbia market and we see a pulp mill really under pressure?

然後，不幸的是，我們看到 West Fraser Timber 關閉了位於不列顛哥倫比亞省的一家鋸木廠，該公司昨天宣布了這一消息。我只是想知道，要達到多少次這樣的臨界點，才會出現不列顛哥倫比亞省木屑市場消耗過多，導致紙漿廠面臨巨大壓力的情況？

I think that situation is already there, to be honest with you. Sometimes, I'm astonished by the fact that we haven't heard of any pulp closure because the situation in chip access is incredibly tight. You remember that two years ago, we divested Cariboo. We had 50% on Cariboo, together with West Fraser. And the reason for our divestiture from that business was precisely because we didn't see a future there in terms of fiber supply.

坦白說，我認為這種情況已經存在了。有時，我驚訝地發現，由於晶片獲取管道極為有限，我們竟然還沒有聽說過任何紙漿封存事件。你還記得兩年前我們剝離了 Cariboo 的股份嗎？我們和 West Fraser 一起，在 Cariboo 擁有 50% 的股份。我們之所以撤出該業務，正是因為我們看不到該業務在光纖供應方面的未來。

As I said earlier in the call, it's completely different for Celgar because we have the US as a very significant source that we can play at even higher levels than what we're doing already. So we're very limited to the dependence on British Columbia itself.

正如我之前在電話會議中所說，對於 Celgar 來說情況完全不同，因為我們有美國這個非常重要的市場，我們可以在這裡達到比我們現在所處水平更高的水平。因此，我們對不列顛哥倫比亞省本身的依賴非常有限。

But that's -- we're probably one of maybe two sawmills -- two pulp mills that have that luxury. The rest are stuck with BC chips. And yeah, there's incredible amount of pressure on them already.

但是，我們可能是僅有的兩家擁有這種條件的鋸木廠之一——或者說是兩家擁有這種條件的紙漿廠之一。其餘的人都只能用BC晶片。是的，他們已經承受著巨大的壓力。

And then, I've got a more challenging question, but I've been asked to ask it, around potential financing and government support from Canada, I mean, considering tariffs and industries like the paper and packaging industry in British Columbia that's under pressure. Have you investigated any opportunities to access much lower-cost financing from either the regional or kind of federal government there?

然後，我還有一個更具挑戰性的問題，但有人要求我問這個問題，那就是關於加拿大政府可能提供的融資和支持，我的意思是，考慮到關稅以及像不列顛哥倫比亞省的造紙和包裝行業這樣面臨壓力的行業。您是否調查過從地方政府或聯邦政府獲得成本較低的融資機會？

Well, we do a lot of lobbying as part of our industry associations. We are very, very active through the associations, as well as through direct contacts we have with, for example, Minister Parmar or even Premier Eby.

嗯，我們作為行業協會的成員，做了很多遊說工作。我們透過各種協會以及與帕爾馬部長甚至埃比總理的直接聯繫，開展了非常非常積極的活動。

So we do have interactions that -- where we bring to the table some of the issues that obviously are important for us. However, be reminded that since we -- most of the efforts that the BC government have put out are in favor of the lumber industry because, obviously, with all the tariff situation, that is the core of the focus.

所以我們之間確實存在一些互動——在這些互動中，我們會提出一些對我們來說顯然很重要的問題。但是，需要注意的是，由於我們——BC省政府所做的大部分努力都有利於木材行業，因為很明顯，在所有關稅問題上，木材行業是關注的焦點。

Beyond steel, beyond auto, beyond those things that we know are heavy in those conversations, lumber is the element. And then, that goes into sawmills, of which we have none. So we don't have access to particular credit lines or something that are more geared towards the lumber business, the sawmills that are in very difficult situation.

除了鋼鐵，除了汽車，除了我們都知道在這些討論中很重要的那些東西之外，木材才是關鍵元素。然後，這些木材會被運往鋸木廠，而我們這裡沒有鋸木廠。因此，我們無法獲得專門針對木材產業、處境非常艱難的鋸木廠的特定信貸額度或其他支援。

Now, with the counter tariffs adding up, with countervailing duties adding up and now additional tariffs, all these measures that the government have made public, they will benefit, hopefully, some of those sawmill companies. But again, we're not privy to those as our business is not through sawmilling.

現在，隨著反制關稅、反補貼稅以及新增關稅的不斷增加，政府已經公開了所有這些措施，希望這些措施能使一些鋸木廠公司受益。但是，我們並不了解這些訊息，因為我們的業務並非透過鋸木來實現。

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

I show no further questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to Juan Carlos for closing remarks.

目前隊列中沒有其他問題了。現在我謹將電話轉回給胡安·卡洛斯，請他作總結發言。

Okay. Thank you, Michelle, and thanks to all of you for joining our call. Rich and I are available, obviously, to talk more at any time. So don't hesitate to call one of us. Otherwise, we look forward to speaking to you again at our next earnings call in February. Bye for now.

好的。謝謝米歇爾，也謝謝各位參加我們的電話會議。當然，我和Rich隨時都願意進一步交談。所以，請隨時與我們聯繫。否則，我們期待在二月的下一次財報電話會議上再次與您交流。暫時再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接了。