Mercer International Inc (MERC) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Mercer International's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call today is Juan Carlos Bueno, Mercer's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Richard Short, Mercer's Chief Financial Officer and Secretary.

早安，歡迎參加美世國際 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有美世總裁兼執行長 Juan Carlos Bueno 和美世財務長兼秘書 Richard Short。

I will now hand the call over to Richard.

我現在將電話交給理查。

Thank you, Michelle, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I will begin by touching on the financial and operating highlights of the second quarter, before turning the call over to Juan Carlos to provide further color into the markets, our operations, and our strategic initiatives. Also, for those of you that are joined today's call by telephone, there is presentation material that we have attached to the Investors section of our website. But before turning to our results, I would like to remind you that we will make forward-looking statements in this morning's conference call.

謝謝你，米歇爾，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。我將首先介紹第二季的財務和營運亮點，然後將電話交給胡安·卡洛斯，進一步介紹市場、我們的營運和策略舉措。此外，對於今天透過電話參加會議的各位，我們已將簡報資料附加到我們網站的「投資者」部分。但在討論我們的結果之前，我想提醒您，我們將在今天上午的電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述。

According to the Safe Harbor Provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, I'd like to call your attention to the risks related to these statements, which are more fully described in our press release and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

根據1995年私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款，我想提請您注意與這些聲明相關的風險，這些風險在我們的新聞稿和公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了更詳細的描述。

This quarter, our EBITDA was negative $21 million, a significant decrease from Q1's positive EBITDA of $47 million. The key drivers of the lower results included a negative foreign exchange impact from a weaker dollar, primarily on our euro and Canadian dollar denominated costs and expenses, which reduced EBITDA by approximately $26 million relative to Q1.

本季度，我們的 EBITDA 為負 2,100 萬美元，較第一季的正 EBITDA 4,700 萬美元大幅下降。業績下滑的主因包括美元走弱的負面外匯影響，主要影響到我們以歐元和加幣計價的成本和費用，導致 EBITDA 較第一季減少約 2,600 萬美元。

Lower pulp prices in China negatively impacted EBITDA by roughly $8 million and led to a noncash hardwood inventory impairment of $11 million. We also incurred higher fiber costs for both our Pulp and Solid Wood segments. Our Pulp segment had negative quarterly EBITDA of $10 million in Q2, and our Solid Wood segment had negative EBITDA of $5 million. You can find additional segment disclosures in our Form 10-Q, which can be found on our website and that of the SEC.

中國紙漿價格下跌對 EBITDA 產生了約 800 萬美元的負面影響，並導致非現金硬木庫存減值 1,100 萬美元。我們的紙漿和實木部門的纖維成本也增加了。我們的紙漿部門第二季的季度 EBITDA 為負 1000 萬美元，實木部門的 EBITDA 為負 500 萬美元。您可以在我們的 10-Q 表格中找到其他分部披露信息，該表格可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上找到。

In the second quarter, our NBSK pulp sales realizations decreased compared to the first quarter due to the ongoing uncertain global trade environment impacting demand from China.

在第二季度，由於持續不確定的全球貿易環境影響了中國的需求，我們的 NBSK 紙漿銷售實現量與第一季相比有所下降。

In North America, NBSK published prices modestly increased due to both stable demand and supply constraints, while in Europe, prices were stable. In Q2, the NBSK net price in China was $734 per tonne, a decrease of $59 from Q1. The North American NBSK list price averaged $1,820 per tonne, an increase of $67 from Q1. The European NBSK list price averaged $1,553 per tonne, flat compared to Q1. Hardwood sales realizations remain largely unchanged in Q2 compared to Q1 as lower prices in China were offset by higher prices in North America.

在北美，由於需求穩定和供應限制，NBSK 公佈的價格小幅上漲，而在歐洲，價格保持穩定。第二季度，中國NBSK淨價為每噸734美元，較第一季下降59美元。北美 NBSK 標價平均為每噸 1,820 美元，較第一季上漲 67 美元。歐洲 NBSK 標價平均為每噸 1,553 美元，與第一季持平。由於中國價格的下跌被北美價格的上漲所抵消，第二季硬木銷售實現量與第一季相比基本保持不變。

The North American NBHK average Q2 list price was $1,310 per tonne, up $42 from Q1. In China, the Q2 average net price for NBHK was $533 per tonne, a decrease of $45 from Q1. As a result, the average price gap between NBSK and NBHK in China for the quarter was about $200 per tonne, a gap we anticipate will be sustained in the second half of 2025.

北美 NBHK 第二季平均標價為每噸 1,310 美元，較第一季上漲 42 美元。在中國，NBHK第二季平均淨價為每噸533美元，較第一季下降45美元。因此，本季中國 NBSK 和 NBHK 的平均價格差距約為每噸 200 美元，我們預計這一差距將持續到 2025 年下半年。

In addition, lower Chinese Hardwood prices resulted in us recording an $11 million noncash inventory write-down this quarter. Pulp sales volumes in the second quarter decreased by 51,000 tonnes to 427,000 tonnes. This decrease is due to weaker demand caused by the ongoing uncertainties in the global trade landscape. Pulp production was flat in Q2 compared to Q1. We had 23 days of planned maintenance downtime in Q2 compared to 22 days in Q1. But we also had a total of six days of downtime related to a slow start-up from Celgar's Q1 shut.

此外，中國硬木價格下跌導致我們本季記錄了 1,100 萬美元的非現金庫存減記。第二季紙漿銷售量減少5.1萬噸至42.7萬噸。這一下降是由於全球貿易格局持續的不確定性導致需求疲軟。第二季紙漿產量與第一季持平。第二季我們的計畫維護停機時間為 23 天，而第一季為 22 天。但由於 Celgar 的 Q1 關閉導致啟動緩慢，我們也總共經歷了六天的停機時間。

In the third quarter of 2025, we had a total of 18 days of planned maintenance downtime. This includes 14 days at our Rosenthal mill and 4 days at our Celgar mill. For our Solid Wood segment, realized lumber prices increased about 10% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. This was primarily due to higher realized prices in the European market, a result of reduced supply and steady demand, while realized prices in the US market were essentially flat.

2025 年第三季度，我們總共進行了 18 天的計畫維護停機。其中包括在 Rosenthal 工廠工作 14 天以及在 Celgar 工廠工作 4 天。對於我們的實木部門，第二季的木材實際價格與第一季相比上漲了約 10%。這主要是由於歐洲市場供應減少、需求穩定，導致實際價格上漲，而美國市場的實際價格基本上持平。

The Random Lengths US benchmark price for Western SPF number two and better averaged $472 per 1,000 board feet in Q2, down from $492 per 1,000 board feet in Q1. Today, that benchmark for Western SPF number two and better is around $533 per thousand board feet, an increase of about $90 from the beginning of 2025. In Q2, lumber production decreased to about 120 million board feet or 6% from Q1 due to planned maintenance at our Friesau mill.

第二季度，西部 SPF 2 號及以上木材的隨機長度美國基準價格平均為每 1,000 板英尺 472 美元，低於第一季的每 1,000 板英尺 492 美元。如今，西方 SPF 2 級及以上木材的基準價格約為每千板英尺 533 美元，比 2025 年初上漲了約 90 美元。由於弗里索工廠的計畫維護，第二季的木材產量較第一季下降至約 1.2 億板英尺，降幅為 6%。

Lumber sales volumes also decreased to 121 million board feet, down about 8% from Q1, reflecting the lower production. Electricity sales for the quarter totaled 216 gigawatt hours, an 8% decrease from Q1 due to planned maintenance downtime at the Stendal mill. Q2 pricing decreased to about $90 per megawatt hour from $112 in Q1 caused by lower spot prices in Germany.

木材銷售量也下降至 1.21 億板英尺，較第一季下降約 8%，反映出產量下降。本季電力銷售總量為 216 吉瓦時，由於 Stendal 工廠計劃停機維護，比第一季下降 8%。由於德國現貨價格較低，第二季價格從第一季的每兆瓦時 112 美元降至約 90 美元。

Fibre costs for both our Pulp and Solid Wood segments increased in Q2 compared to Q1 due to strong demand in Germany and higher logistics costs in Western Canada. Our Mass Timber operations within the Solid Wood segment had lower revenues in Q2 compared to Q1 as the prevailing market uncertainty is impacting project timelines and overall market momentum. However, we believe this is a temporary headwind, and we continue to see strong and growing underlying interest in Mass Timber and expect improved results going into 2026.

由於德國需求強勁以及加拿大西部物流成本上升，我們第二季度紙漿和實木部門的纖維成本與第一季相比均有所增加。由於目前的市場不確定性影響了專案時間表和整體市場勢頭，我們實木部門的大規模木材業務第二季的收入低於第一季。然而，我們認為這只是暫時的不利因素，我們繼續看到市場對大規模木材的潛在興趣強勁且不斷增長，並預計 2026 年業績將有所改善。

In Q1, we announced our One Goal, One Hundred program. This initiative focuses on cost reduction and operational efficiencies with a target to improve our profitability by $100 million by the end of 2026 using 2024 as a baseline. To date, we have approximately $5 million in cost savings with an anticipated total of $25 million of cost savings for 2025. We also expect our implemented operational efficiencies to further improve profitability. Juan Carlos will provide more details on our progress on this initiative.

在第一季度，我們宣布了「一個目標，一百個目標」計畫。該計劃的重點是降低成本和提高營運效率，目標是以 2024 年為基準，到 2026 年底將獲利能力提高 1 億美元。到目前為止，我們已經節省了約 500 萬美元的成本，預計到 2025 年總共將節省 2,500 萬美元的成本。我們也希望我們實施的營運效率能進一步提高獲利能力。胡安·卡洛斯將提供有關這項倡議進展的更多細節。

We reported a consolidated net loss of $86 million for the second quarter or $1.29 per share compared to a net loss of $22 million or $0.33 per share in the first quarter. In Q2, we consumed $35 million of cash compared to $3 million in Q1. This increase was primarily driven by lower EBITDA, partially offset by a $21 million decrease in our net working capital excluding noncash items, due in part to working capital reductions from our One Goal, One Hundred initiative.

我們報告第二季的綜合淨虧損為 8,600 萬美元，即每股 1.29 美元，而第一季的淨虧損為 2,200 萬美元，即每股 0.33 美元。在第二季度，我們消耗了 3500 萬美元現金，而第一季為 300 萬美元。這一增長主要由於 EBITDA 下降，但被不包括非現金項目的淨營運資本減少 2,100 萬美元所部分抵消，部分原因是我們的「一個目標，一百」計劃減少了營運資本。

In Q2, we invested a total of $24 million in capital across our facilities. These investments include upgrades to the log yards at Friesau and Torgau. These strategic projects are expected to enhance efficiencies, positioning us favorably for improvements in the Solid Wood market. At the end of Q2, our strong liquidity position totaled $438 million, comprised of about $146 million of cash and $292 million of undrawn revolvers.

在第二季度，我們向所有工廠共投資了 2,400 萬美元。這些投資包括對弗里索和托爾高的原木場進行升級。這些策略項目可望提高效率，為我們在實木市場的改善奠定有利基礎。截至第二季末，我們的強勁流動資金總額為 4.38 億美元，其中包括約 1.46 億美元的現金和 2.92 億美元的未提取循環信貸額度。

That ends my overview of the financial results. I'll now turn the call over to Juan Carlos.

我對財務結果的概述到此結束。現在我將把電話轉給胡安·卡洛斯。

Thanks, Rich. Trade uncertainty resulting from tariffs and global trading disputes was the main driver behind our disappointing Q2 results. This is despite the fact that our products are now being tariffed up to this point. Market uncertainty, coupled with excess supply of cheap hardwood fiber locally has caused Chinese demand for imported hardwood pulp to weaken resulting in an 8% decrease in prices with a single knockdown effect on softwood when compared to Q1.

謝謝，里奇。關稅和全球貿易爭端導致的貿易不確定性是我們第二季業績令人失望的主要原因。儘管我們的產品現在已被徵收關稅，但情況仍然如此。市場不確定性，加上國內廉價闊葉木纖維供應過剩，導致中國對進口闊葉木漿的需求減弱，導致價格與第一季相比下降了 8%，對軟木產生了單一的打擊效應。

In addition, trade disputes have caused the US dollar to weaken dramatically against the euro and Canadian dollar. This US dollar weakness created almost $26 million of negative EBITDA for us relative to Q1. All these uncontrollable factors create significant macroeconomic headwinds for our business.

此外，貿易爭端導緻美元兌歐元和加幣大幅貶值。美元疲軟導致我們的 EBITDA 與第一季相比為負近 2,600 萬美元。所有這些不可控的因素都為我們的業務帶來了巨大的宏觀經濟阻力。

We continue to focus on the things we can control. For example, we're beginning to see improvements in our reliability as our mills ran well this quarter.

我們繼續關注我們能夠控制的事情。例如，由於本季我們的工廠運作良好，我們開始看到可靠性的提高。

Early in the second quarter, we launched a company-wide program aimed at identifying $100 million in cost savings and profitability improvement opportunities by the end of 2026 when compared with 2024. Our organization has actively embraced this program, which is known internally as One Goal, One Hundred. At the end of Q2, we achieved $5 million of cost savings and have already identified an additional $20 million by the end of this year.

在第二季初，我們啟動了一項全公司範圍的計劃，旨在與 2024 年相比，到 2026 年底找到 1 億美元的成本節約和盈利能力提昇機會。我們的組織積極接受了這個計劃，內部稱之為「一個目標，一百個目標」。在第二季末，我們實現了 500 萬美元的成本節約，並且已經確定在今年年底前再節省 2,000 萬美元。

This initiative also includes targeting working capital reductions of $20 million as well as another $20 million in CapEx reductions. Beyond this, we have started to unlock some significant reliability improvements that combined with additional cost savings next year, gives us high confidence that we will reach our $100 million target by the end of 2026. In parallel, our working capital and CapEx reduction plans are tracking exactly as planned.

該計劃還包括減少 2000 萬美元的營運資金以及另外 2000 萬美元的資本支出。除此之外，我們已經開始實現一些重大的可靠性改進，再加上明年的額外成本節約，我們非常有信心在 2026 年底實現 1 億美元的目標。同時，我們的營運資金和資本支出削減計畫正按計畫進行。

The trade war has created an unprecedented level of uncertainty in the markets in general. As a reminder, on average, we sell about 200,000 tonnes of pulp into the US annually. About half of this volume is hardwood pulp. We also export from Germany about 200 million board feet of lumber to the US.

貿易戰為整個市場帶來了前所未有的不確定性。提醒一下，我們平均每年向美國銷售約 20 萬噸紙漿。其中約有一半是硬木紙漿。我們也從德國向美國出口約 2 億板英尺的木材。

Today, these products do not have any tariffs applied to them. However, lumber is subject to Section 232 review by the US Department of Commerce. So it is unclear if tariffs will be applied at some point in time. This reviews to be completed before the end of the year, but we expect decisions will be made beforehand.

如今，這些產品不徵收任何關稅。然而，木材須遵守美國商務部第 232 條的審查。因此，目前尚不清楚是否會在某個時間點徵收關稅。此次審查將於今年年底前完成，但我們預計將提前做出決定。

In contrast, our main import from the US into Canada is woodchips for our Celgar pulp mill, which today amounts to about 45% of the fiber consumption of the mill. There are no counter tariffs currently applied to this fiber.

相較之下，我們從美國進口到加拿大的主要產品是供應給 Celgar 紙漿廠的木片，目前這部分木片約佔該廠纖維消耗量的 45%。目前，尚未針對該纖維徵收反關稅。

As I previously mentioned, our businesses are being impacted by the secondary effects of tariffs as this uncertain business environment directly affects the regular trade flows of the commodities we produce and forces delaying construction projects that we aim to serve. In addition to the above, the weaker dollar has an immediate effect on our cost basis on our receivable balances. With this global economic uncertainty in the background, our Board has taken the difficult decision to suspend our dividend.

正如我之前提到的，我們的業務受到關稅的副作用的影響，因為這種不確定的商業環境直接影響到我們生產的商品的正常貿易流動，並迫使我們想要服務的建設項目推遲。除上述因素外，美元疲軟也會對我們的應收帳款餘額的成本基礎產生直接影響。在全球經濟不確定的背景下，我們的董事會做出了暫停派息的艱難決定。

We view the suspension as temporary, but prudent from a capital allocation standpoint as we focus on debt reduction and navigate the uncertainty impacting our industry. Our Board of Directors remains committed to a competitive dividend as the market uncertainty dissipates on our balance sheet strengthens.

我們認為暫停是暫時的，但從資本配置的角度來看是謹慎的，因為我們專注於減少債務並應對影響我們行業的不確定性。隨著市場不確定性的消散，我們的資產負債表增強，我們的董事會仍然致力於提供有競爭力的股息。

Our EBITDA of negative $21 million reflects a heavy maintenance quarter. Our Peace River mill was down for 20 days. Stendal took a short three-day shut. And as a reminder, Celgar's Q1 shut had six days of slow start up in Q2.

我們的 EBITDA 為負 2,100 萬美元，反映出本季維護工作繁忙。我們的和平河工廠停工了 20 天。施滕達爾短暫休息了三天。需要提醒的是，Celgar 在第一季關閉的工廠在第二季啟動時有六天的緩慢。

In Q2, the combined effect of uncontrollable negative market impacts, including a weakening of the US dollar and Pulp pricing and the associated hardwood inventory impairment reduced our EBITDA by almost $45 million compared to Q1. These were the results of the indirect impact of tariffs and trade uncertainty.

在第二季度，美元和紙漿價格疲軟以及相關的硬木庫存減值等不可控的負面市場影響的綜合作用導致我們的 EBITDA 與第一季度相比減少了近 4500 萬美元。這是關稅和貿易不確定性間接影響的結果。

Even though we carried good momentum during Q1, the strength changed very quickly as we entered into Q2. Midway through the quarter, the Chinese market weakened dramatically on concerns and uncertainty on tariff costs and the availability of export markets. Today, Pulp prices in China appear to have hit the floor. Given that we're now in the seasonally low summer period, we don't expect Pulp prices to regain any positive momentum until the fourth quarter.

儘管我們在第一季保持了良好的勢頭，但進入第二季後，實力迅速發生了變化。本季中期，由於對關稅成本和出口市場可用性的擔憂和不確定性，中國市場急劇疲軟。如今，中國紙漿價格似乎已觸底。鑑於目前正處於夏季季節性淡季，我們預計紙漿價格要到第四季才會恢復積極勢頭。

While some trade agreements are beginning to take shape, the global trade landscape continues to be unclear. We will continue to work on mitigation strategies and remain flexible to manage through the uncertainty. In the meantime, we continue to maintain an open dialogue with our customers, government officials, and our industry associations and are prepared to take swift action redirecting products to other geographies as necessary and adjusting our operations accordingly depending on the scenario that actually plays out, once the dust settles and the tariff map is completed.

儘管一些貿易協定開始形成，但全球貿易格局仍然不明朗。我們將繼續致力於緩解策略，並保持靈活性以應對不確定性。同時，我們繼續與客戶、政府官員和行業協會保持公開對話，並準備在塵埃落定、關稅圖完成後，迅速採取行動，根據需要將產品轉移到其他地區，並根據實際情況調整我們的營運。

Turning to the Pulp markets. Softwood pricing is expected to remain weak through the summer months. However, we are confident that overall demand for softwood will be steady in the midterm, which when combined with reduced supply will create some upward pricing pressure in most markets in the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026. In the second quarter, hardwood pricing remained weakened significantly in China due to weak paper demand and increased domestic pulp supply. Conversely, hardwood pricing in North America was resilient due to steady demand.

轉向紙漿市場。預計整個夏季軟木價格仍將保持疲軟。然而，我們相信，中期對軟木的整體需求將保持穩定，再加上供應減少，將在 2025 年第四季和 2026 年對大多數市場造成一些上行價格壓力。第二季度，由於紙張需求疲軟以及國內紙漿供應增加，中國硬木價格持續大幅走弱。相反，由於需求穩定，北美硬木價格保持彈性。

As we have highlighted in previous calls, we believe that the ability of paper makers to substitute hardwood pulp in the place of softwood pulp is limited as most of the substitution options have already been exhausted, and understand that while customers will continue to push the limits given the wide gap that still persists between the two fibers, only a marginal amount will still be possible. In total, our Pulp production was flat at almost 460,000 tonnes compared to Q1.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中所強調的那樣，我們認為造紙商用硬木漿替代軟木漿的能力是有限的，因為大多數替代方案已經用盡，並且我們理解，儘管考慮到兩種纖維之間仍然存在的巨大差距，客戶將繼續突破極限，但仍然只有少量的替代選擇。總體而言，我們的紙漿產量與第一季持平，為近 46 萬噸。

Our lumber production was down slightly relative to Q1 by about 6% due to planned maintenance at our Friesau mill. Overall, we are pleased with our lumber production and look forward to the incremental lumber production at our Torgau mill going forward. As a reminder, we expect the increased annual capacity to be about 100,000 cubic meters of dimensional lumber or roughly 65 million board feet.

由於弗里索工廠的計劃維護，我們的木材產量與第一季相比略有下降，約 6%。總體而言，我們對我們的木材產量感到滿意，並期待未來托爾高工廠的木材產量不斷增加。提醒一下，我們預計年產能將增加至約 10 萬立方公尺規格木材或約 6,500 萬板英尺。

In Q2, our overall pulp fiber costs were up slightly relative to Q1. In Germany, we saw increased demand for sawlogs which pushed up the price of sawmill chips, while in Canada, costs were up slightly due to the increased logistic costs. The increased demand for sawlogs in Germany also pushed the price of fiber up for sawmilling business.

第二季度，我們的整體紙漿纖維成本相對於第一季略有上漲。在德國，我們看到對鋸木的需求增加，從而推高了鋸木廠木片的價格，而在加拿大，由於物流成本增加，成本略有上漲。德國對鋸木的需求增加也推高了鋸木廠的纖維價格。

Looking ahead to Q3, we expect fiber costs to modestly decrease for our pulp business and increase by about 10% for Solid Wood business as harvesting levels in Germany are very low due to lack of calamity wood. The business environment for Solid Wood segment remains consistent with Q1. Our Solid Wood segment continues to be held back by a weak European economy and the impact of high interest rates on the construction industry, despite some modest price improvements on certain grades in the US lumber market.

展望第三季度，我們預期紙漿業務的纖維成本將小幅下降，而實木業務的纖維成本將增加約 10%，因為德國因缺乏災木而導致採伐量非常低。實木部門的經營環境與第一季保持一致。儘管美國木材市場某些等級的實木價格略有上漲，但我們的實木部門仍然受到歐洲經濟疲軟和高利率對建築業影響的阻礙。

As a result, our Solid Wood segment posted a negative EBITDA of $5 million in Q2 with higher European lumber pricing not offsetting the sustained weak demand for pallets. Looking ahead, we feel -- we are seeing the beginning of improved economic recovery growth in Germany and Europe in general, which we believe will bring improved pallet pricing. As a reminder, $1 per pallet increase or roughly 10%, will put this business into a very positive cash flow position.

因此，我們的實木部門第二季的 EBITDA 為負 500 萬美元，歐洲木材價格上漲未能抵消持續疲軟的托盤需求。展望未來，我們感覺到——我們看到德國和整個歐洲的經濟復甦成長開始改善，我們相信這將帶來托盤價格的改善。提醒一下，每托盤增加 1 美元或大約 ​​10%，將使該業務的現金流狀況非常良好。

Given the economic forces affecting the US construction activity, US lumber pricing would be volatile in the short term. Currently, weak housing construction due to high mortgage rates is a headwind, but the expected implementation of significantly higher antidumping and countervailing duties is expected to push lumber prices up. It may also result in the curtailment of some Canadian sawmills, which could create additional pricing tailwinds.

鑑於影響美國建築活動的經濟力量，美國木材價格短期內將會出現波動。目前，抵押貸款利率高企導致房屋建設疲軟，這是一個不利因素，但預計將實施大幅提高的反傾銷和反補貼稅，預計將推高木材價格。這也可能導致一些加拿大鋸木廠減產，從而產生額外的價格順風。

In contrast, we expect modest upward pricing pressure in the European market, primarily due to increasing sawlog prices. However, any meaningful long-term improvement in either the European or US markets will be dependent on improved economic conditions and lower interest rates.

相較之下，我們預期歐洲市場價格將出現溫和上漲壓力，主要原因是鋸木價格上漲。然而，歐洲或美國市場的任何有意義的長期改善都將取決於經濟狀況的改善和利率的降低。

The cost competitive configuration we have in Friesau gives us the flexibility to have a strong presence in Europe, the US and the quality sensitive Japanese market. In Q2, 40% of our lumber volume was sold in the US as we continue to optimize our mix of products and target markets to current conditions.

我們在弗里索擁有的成本競爭力配置使我們能夠靈活地在歐洲、美國和對品質敏感的日本市場佔據強勢地位。在第二季度，我們 40% 的木材銷售銷售至美國，我們將繼續根據當前情況優化產品組合和目標市場。

Looking forward, we believe the US lumber market will be driven by favorable homeowner demographics. Additionally, factors that we believe will improve lumber market dynamics include potential Canadian sawmill curtailments in the aftermath of higher softwood lumber duties and relatively low housing stock. Combined, we expect these factors will put sustained positive pressure on the supply-demand balance of this business in the midterm.

展望未來，我們相信美國木材市場將受到有利的房主人口統計的推動。此外，我們認為將改善木材市場動態的因素包括加拿大鋸木廠在軟木關稅提高和房屋存量相對較低的情況下可能縮減產量。綜合起來，我們預計這些因素將在中期內對該業務的供需平衡產生持續的正面壓力。

Shipping pallet markets remained weak with the pallet pricing staying generally flat due to the overhang of the European economy, particularly in Germany. Once the economy begins to show signs of recovery, we expect pallet prices to recover towards more historical levels allowing Torgau to deliver significant shareholder value.

由於歐洲經濟（尤其是德國）的不景氣，運輸托盤市場依然疲軟，托盤價格基本上保持穩定。一旦經濟開始出現復甦跡象，我們預計托盤價格將恢復至歷史水平，從而使托爾高能夠為股東帶來顯著的價值。

Heating pallet prices were up in Q2, which is unusual, given the seasonality of this product, but higher German fiber costs created supply constraints and drove prices up. We expect demand and prices to be slightly lower in Q3.

加熱托盤價格在第二季度上漲，考慮到該產品的季節性，這是不尋常的，但德國纖維成本上漲造成供應限制並推高價格。我們預計第三季的需求和價格將略有下降。

With regard to our Mass Timber business, we have seen steady growth in the number of incoming projects inquiries. In the last two quarters, the potential sales volumes of these inquiries have exceeded $400 million and equates to well over 100 projects per quarter. And as a result, our order book is growing. The projects we are bidding on and winning today are meant to be constructed nine months from now, well into 2026.

就我們的大規模木材業務而言，我們看到專案諮詢數量穩定成長。在過去兩個季度中，這些諮詢的潛在銷售額已超過 4 億美元，相當於每季超過 100 個項目。因此，我們的訂單量正在成長。我們今天競標並中標的項目預計將在九個月後，也就是 2026 年建成。

While our orders -- while our work orders for Q3 remain weak, revenue will start picking up momentum in Q4 to the point that we're planning on ramping up one of our facilities to two shifts in the early part of next year. Today, our Mass Timber backlog of projects sits at about $68 million. We remain confident that the environmental, economic speed of construction aesthetics, benefits of Mass Timber will allow this building product to grow in popularity at a pace similar to what happened in Europe. As such, we're highly confident in this business being a growth engine for Mercer.

雖然我們的訂單——雖然我們第三季的工作訂單仍然疲軟，但收入將在第四季度開始回升，以至於我們計劃在明年年初將我們的一個工廠的班次增加到兩班。如今，我們的大規模木材工程積壓金額約為 6,800 萬美元。我們堅信，大規模木材的環境、經濟、建築美學和效益將使這種建築產品以與歐洲類似的速度普及。因此，我們非常有信心這項業務將成為美世的成長引擎。

We are well positioned to take advantage of that market growth as we have roughly 30% of North American cross-laminated timber production capacity, a broad range of product offerings, including design-assist and installation services and a large geographic footprint with manufacturing sites in the Northwest as well as Southeast giving us competitive access to the entire North American market.

我們擁有約 30% 的北美交叉層壓木材生產能力、廣泛的產品系列（包括設計協助和安裝服務）以及遍布西北和東南的生產基地的廣闊地理覆蓋範圍，使我們能夠以競爭性的方式進入整個北美市場，因此我們完全有能力利用這一市場增長機會。

As part of our objective to keep all of our partners running reliably, we planned major maintenance shutdowns at all mills throughout the year. Our remaining shut schedule is as follows: in Q3, Rosenthal will be down for 14 days or about 14,300 tonnes; and Celgar will take 4 days or 5,300 tonnes. In Q4, Stendal will be down for 18 days or 37,100 tonnes.

為了確保所有合作夥伴可靠運行，我們計劃全年對所有工廠進行大規模維護停工。我們剩餘的停產計畫如下：第三季度，Rosenthal 將停產 14 天，或約 14,300 噸；Celgar 將停產 4 天，或 5,300 噸。第四季度，Stendal 將停駛 18 天，停運量為 37,100 噸。

In light of recent economic uncertainty, we have reduced planned CapEx and now expect to spend about $100 million on capital projects in 2025. This capital budget is heavily weighted to maintenance, environmental and safety projects and includes both Torgau's lumber expansion project and Celgar's recently completed woodroom project.

鑑於近期經濟的不確定性，我們減少了計劃的資本支出，目前預計 2025 年在資本項目上花費約 1 億美元。此資本預算主要用於維護、環境和安全項目，包括 Torgau 的木材擴建項目和 Celgar 最近完成的木屋項目。

We're currently conducting a FEL-2 engineering review for a potential carbon capture project at our Peace River mill. We have a lot of work to do given where we are in the project, but we're excited about the potential that such a venture could have on the economics of this mill. As we look forward, we believe that products like mass timber, green energy, lumber, pulp, and lignin will play increasingly important roles in displacing carbon-intensive products.

我們目前正在對 Peace River 工廠的潛在碳捕獲項目進行 FEL-2 工程審查。考慮到我們目前在專案中的狀況，我們還有很多工作要做，但我們對這樣的合作可能會對這家工廠的經濟帶來的潛在影響感到非常興奮。展望未來，我們相信，大規模木材、綠色能源、木材、紙漿和木質素等產品將在取代碳密集產品方面發揮越來越重要的作用。

Products like concrete and steel for construction or plastic for packaging. Furthermore, the potential demand for sustainable fossil fuel substitutes is very significant and has the potential to be transformative to the wood products industry.

用於建築的混凝土和鋼材或用於包裝的塑膠等產品。此外，對永續化石燃料替代品的潛在需求非常大，並有可能改變木製品產業。

We remain committed to our 2030 carbon reduction targets and believe our products form part of the climate change solution. In fact, we believe that demand for our low carbon products will dramatically increase as the world looks for solutions to reduce its carbon emissions. We remain bullish on the long-term value of pulp and are committed to better balance our company through our growth in our lumber and mass timber businesses.

我們仍然致力於實現 2030 年的碳減排目標，並相信我們的產品是氣候變遷解決方案的一部分。事實上，我們相信，隨著世界尋求減少碳排放的解決方案，對我們的低碳產品的需求將急劇增加。我們仍然看好紙漿的長期價值，並致力於透過木材和大規模木材業務的成長來更好地平衡我們的公司。

Overall, our Q2 operating results were disappointing, and equally frustrating given the cause for a weak earnings lies in this uncertain business environment created by global trade challenges. We believe our businesses have strong fundamentals and when combined with our debt reduction strategy, we are poised to create significant shareholder value.

整體而言，我們的第二季經營業績令人失望，同樣令人沮喪的是，獲利疲軟的原因在於全球貿易挑戰造成的不確定的商業環境。我們相信，我們的業務基礎強勁，再加上我們的減債策略，我們將創造巨大的股東價值。

We will continue to pursue the benefits of our One Goal, One Hundred program and continue to improve the reliability of our mills to strengthen our resilience. We remain committed to increasing shareholder value by reducing our leverage through aggressive cost reduction programs, strong reliability and prudent capital management.

我們將繼續追求「一個目標，一百個」計畫的效益，並繼續提高工廠的可靠性，以增強我們的彈性。我們將繼續致力於透過積極的成本削減計劃、強大的可靠性和審慎的資本管理來降低我們的槓桿率，從而提高股東價值。

Thanks for listening, and I will now turn the call back to Michelle for questions. Thank you.

感謝您的聆聽，現在我將把電話轉回給米歇爾，請她回答問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Roger Spitz, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）美國銀行的羅傑·斯皮茨。

Can you provide any information on other cash flow items like 2025 cash taxes and perhaps all the way through 2025 operating cash flow less the $100 million of CapEx.

您能否提供有關其他現金流量項目的信息，例如 2025 年現金稅，以及 2025 年營運現金流減去 1 億美元資本支出的資訊。

Roger, it's Richard. So we expect our tax for the year to be about $20 million, $25 million cash tax. And then I'm not sure -- so our CapEx, we mentioned we're targeting $100 million, interest probably around $110 million, and working capital should be slightly negative, if not flat for the year. Does that answer your question?

羅傑，我是理查。因此，我們預計今年的稅收約為 2000 萬美元，現金稅為 2500 萬美元。然後我不確定——所以我們的資本支出，我們提到我們的目標是 1 億美元，利息大概在 1.1 億美元左右，營運資本應該略為負值，如果不是全年持平的話。這回答了你的問題嗎？

I'm sorry, a slight outflow flash.

抱歉，有輕微的流出閃光。

Yes. For working capital, yes, just a modest negative, yes.

是的。對於營運資金來說，是的，只是適度的負面，是的。

Sure. I think you just said cash tax of $25 million, but you've already kind of there in the first two quarters, no?

當然。我想您剛才說的是 2500 萬美元的現金稅，但您在前兩個季度就已經達到了這個數字，不是嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Or did I mishear you?

還是我聽錯了？

No, you're right, it's about $25 million for the year.

不，你說得對，一年大約是 2500 萬美元。

Okay. Got it. And my other question is, regarding the German revolver facility, can you remind us of the -- any maintenance covenants under that? And what kind of headroom you have given where you are as of June 30, draw?

好的。知道了。我的另一個問題是，關於德國左輪手槍設施，您能否提醒我們—其中有任何維護契約嗎？截至 6 月 30 日，您為自己留出了什麼樣的空間？

Yes, there's no maintenance covenants, and we have lots of headroom. The number escapes me, but it exceeds $100 million, probably like $150 million, $200 million-ish. So there's lots of capacity there. I just don't have the number off the top of my head But the --

是的，沒有維護契約，我們有很大的發展空間。我已經記不清具體數字了，但超過 1 億美元，可能是 1.5 億美元或 2 億美元左右。所以那裡有很多容量。我只是記不清具體數字，但--

(inaudible) covenants deployed?

（聽不清楚）契約已經部署？

Not all, but most.

不是全部，但大多數。

Sean Steuart, TD Cowen.

肖恩·斯圖爾特（Sean Steuart），TD Cowen。

I want to follow up on the balance sheet. Rich, I guess, just perspective on what -- given the capital intensity of the business and the exposure to maintenance downtime schedules, what's the minimum liquidity level you guys are comfortable with as sort of the baseline going forward?

我想跟進資產負債表。我想，Rich，只是從以下角度來看——考慮到業務的資本密集度和維護停機計劃的風險，你們認為作為未來基準的最低流動性水平是多少？

And then a follow-up on that. You're talking about flat to slightly negative working cap changes this year, but one, Carlos, you mentioned an opportunity to bring working cap down further as a part of broader cash management initiatives. Can you give a little bit of perspective on longer-term opportunities to bring working capital down?

然後對此進行跟進。您說的是今年的工作上限變化持平或略有下降，但是卡洛斯，您提到了作為更廣泛的現金管理舉措的一部分，進一步降低工作上限的機會。您能否就降低營運資本的長期機會發表一些看法？

Well, maybe I'll touch on that first. So we've got some initiatives around inventory, specifically wood inventory that will continue to push our working capital down. This is sort of an ongoing thing with the mills, managing those inventories. So we're confident that we'll get our One Goal, One Hundred target hit. And then, Sean, sorry, your first question --

好吧，也許我應該先談談這個。因此，我們針對庫存採取了一些舉措，特別是木材庫存，這將繼續降低我們的營運資金。這是工廠正在進行的一項工作，管理這些庫存。因此，我們有信心實現「一球百勝」的目標。然後，肖恩，抱歉，你的第一個問題--

Just minimum available liquidity that you're comfortable with, just given the capital intensity inherent in the business.

僅考慮業務固有的資本密集度，您所能接受的最低可用流動性。

Yes. We're a long way from being uncomfortable, I would say. So we've -- I don't know if I have a minimum number in mind, but we're not even close to that. When we look out and we look at the levers that we can still pull around CapEx, we've talked before, Sean, about the MOB is probably like $60 million or $70 million a year. And we could probably push that down if we needed to.

是的。我想說，我們距離感到不舒服還很遠。所以我們——我不知道我心中是否有一個最低數字，但我們甚至還沒有接近這個數字。當我們觀察並研究我們仍然可以利用資本支出的槓桿時，我們之前已經討論過，肖恩，MOB 大概是每年 6000 萬美元或 7000 萬美元。如果需要的話，我們或許可以降低這個數字。

So I mean, I think we've got, yes, plenty of room, not worried about liquidity at all at this point.

所以我的意思是，我認為我們有足夠的空間，目前完全不必擔心流動性。

Sandy Burns, Stifel, Nicolaus.

桑迪伯恩斯、史蒂費爾、尼可拉斯。

You mentioned how you had to take the write-down on the hardwood pulp side in the quarter. Just given how it looks like based on the production versus sales numbers on the softwood side. Your softwood inventories are probably at elevated levels. Maybe, one, can you comment if you would agree with that or how you view your softwood inventory levels and maybe related do you think there is the potential risk to have to take a noncash write-down on those inventories as well?

您提到了本季如何對硬木紙漿業務進行減記。只是根據軟木方面的生產與銷售數字給出其情況。您的軟木庫存可能處於較高水準。也許，首先，您能否評論一下您是否同意這一點，或者您如何看待您的軟木庫存水平，也許相關，您是否認為也存在對這些庫存進行非現金減記的潛在風險？

I can take that, at least the impairment part of it. Yes, we're not close to taking any impairments on softwood inventories. Inventory levels, I would say, are slightly elevated primarily in Canada, just due to the slower Chinese sales. But I wouldn't say we're uncomfortable with the inventory levels at this point.

我可以接受這一點，至少是其中的損害部分。是的，我們還沒有對軟木庫存產生任何減值。我想說，庫存水準略有上升，主要是在加拿大，這僅僅是由於中國銷售放緩所致。但我不會說我們對目前的庫存水準感到不舒服。

Okay. And then also maybe just to discuss your current liquidity. I mean, you discussed the covenants under the German revolver. I guess, under the Canadian revolver, anything that may start to -- you're getting close on or may trip up in the next quarter or so, given current conditions?

好的。然後也許只是討論一下您當前的流動性。我的意思是，您討論了德國左輪手槍下的契約。我想，在加拿大的循環政策下，考慮到目前的情況，任何事情都可能開始——你在下個季度左右接近或可能失敗？

No. So that covenant -- sorry, that revolver has a springing covenant that kicks in once you hit a certain threshold of borrowing, which again, we're not -- sort of, when you'd, sort of, top out on the overall facility. But again, not even close to that at this point. So yes, no concerns.

不。因此，那個契約——抱歉，那個循環信貸有一個生效契約，一旦你達到一定的借款額度，它就會生效，再說一次，我們不是——某種程度上，當你達到整體信貸額度的頂峰時。但目前為止，還遠遠沒有達到這個水準。是的，不用擔心。

Okay. And then lastly, just a follow-up on your previous comment, the $60 million to $70 million. Is that more like the maintenance CapEx level you're referring to?

好的。最後，針對您之前的評論，我想問一下 6000 萬到 7000 萬美元。這是否更像是您所指的維護資本支出水準？

Exactly. Yes. Sorry. Yes -- sorry, I used the term MOB, maintenance of business.

確切地。是的。對不起。是的——抱歉，我使用了術語 MOB，即業務維護。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示） Matthew McKellar，RBC 資本市場。

First, could you just talk through what you would expect to catalyze pulp prices gaining some momentum as we kind of get into the latter part of the year? Have you already seen enough production to come out of the market to put it in a more balanced position? Or what are you looking for there?

首先，您能否談談，隨著我們進入下半年，您預計哪些因素會促使紙漿價格上漲？您是否已經看到足夠的產量退出市場，從而使市場處於更平衡的地位？或者你在那裡尋找什麼？

Absolutely. Thanks for your question. Yes, we believe that there is positive momentum coming into the later part of the year as it comes to pulp prices. This is on the back of restocking after the low summer season process that we go through year after year. So as demand picks up, we do see that inventories will come down and there would be a need for restocking.

絕對地。謝謝你的提問。是的，我們相信今年下半年紙漿價格將出現正面動能。這是我們每年經歷的夏季淡季後重新進貨的過程。因此，隨著需求回升，我們確實看到庫存將會下降，並且需要補充庫存。

Now in the particular case of softwood, we do see the market being tight in terms of supply. In previous years, there's been several mill closures and capacity that have come down. We've seen some announcements of also additional closures in recent times, particularly in Finland or curtailments that will take some volumes out of the market as well. So when you add everything up, we do believe that once demand comes picking up from the low summer season, we would start feeling the pressure of the tight supply, and that would drive prices up for the second -- for the latest part of the year, let's say, end of Q3 and coming into Q4.

現在，就軟木而言，我們確實看到市場供應緊張。前幾年，已有多家工廠關閉，產能下降。我們最近看到了一些關於進一步關閉工廠的公告，特別是在芬蘭，或者說削減產量，這也將導致一些產量退出市場。因此，當你把所有因素加在一起時，我們確實相信，一旦需求從夏季淡季回升，我們就會開始感受到供應緊張的壓力，這將推高價格，即在今年晚些時候，比如說，第三季度末和第四季度。

For hardwood, it's a bit different because obviously, there is some excess capacity. But at the same time, as always, after the low summer season kicks in and we see some of the restocking happening, it would naturally go up again. Not materially, not significantly. We're not expecting a hockey stick on hardwood. We expect probably a better recovery on softwood than we see on hardwood in the later part of the year.

對於硬木來說，情況有點不同，因為顯然存在一些產能過剩。但同時，與往常一樣，在夏季淡季到來之後，我們看到一些補貨的發生，價格自然會再次上漲。不是實質的，也不是顯著的。我們並不期望曲棍球棒能擊打硬木。我們預計今年下半年軟木的復甦可能會比硬木更好。

Great. I'd like to ask just quickly about this carbon capture plant at Peace River as well. Is there anything you could share at this point, recognizing the project is pretty early stages, around how meaningful the project could be financially to Mercer? Or how we should think about a potential capital commitment there, if any?

偉大的。我也想快速詢問一下有關和平河碳捕獲工廠的情況。鑑於該專案尚處於早期階段，您現在能分享什麼嗎？該計畫對美世的財務意義有多大？或者我們應該如何考慮那裡的潛在資本承諾（如果有的話）？

Absolutely. As I mentioned earlier, we're very excited about how that project is progressing. And despite the fact that we're still a couple of years away from it becoming a reality. The fact is that we have completed FEL-1 with very good results. We're in the middle of FEL-2. We will go into feed already by the beginning of next year. So it's progressing in a very favorable way.

絕對地。正如我之前提到的，我們對該專案的進展感到非常興奮。儘管我們距離它成為現實還需要幾年的時間。事實上，我們已經完成了 FEL-1，並且取得了非常好的成果。我們正處於 FEL-2 之中。明年年初我們將進軍飼料領域。因此，一切進展順利。

Now the impact that this project may have on the mill is very significant, because when we look at the potential revenue stream that can come out of that, it would be tied to about 500,000 tonnes of CO2 that we can capture.

現在，這個項目可能對工廠的影響非常顯著，因為當我們考慮由此產生的潛在收入來源時，它將與我們可以捕獲的約 50 萬噸二氧化碳有關。

And given where the prices of CO2 credits are, we can easily come up with a number that is close or north of $100 million per year of revenue. And given how this project works, the costs associated with that revenue is very low. So it's a highly profitable venture for the mill. And obviously, it would be a very significant upgrade to the financials of the asset itself. It basically becomes a biorefinery with a -- of prime product, if you see -- if you put it that way that is -- that are those carbon credits.

考慮到二氧化碳排放額度的價格，我們可以很容易地得出一個接近或超過每年 1 億美元收入的數字。考慮到該項目的運作方式，與該收入相關的成本非常低。因此，對於工廠來說，這是一項利潤豐厚的投資。顯然，這對於資產本身的財務狀況來說將是一個非常重大的升級。它基本上變成了一個生物精煉廠，其主要產品是——如果你這樣說的話——那就是碳信用。

And remember that, that market when we negotiate those carbon credits, those contracts are 10-year contracts. So that means that the mill would have a guaranteed revenue for 10 years of $100 million per year. So that is why we see this as something that is strategically important for Peace River and for Mercer as a whole, because it opens the door of what we can do with carbon capture in other mills as well.

請記住，當我們談判碳信用時，這些合約都是 10 年期合約。這意味著該工廠將在 10 年內保證每年 1 億美元的收入。因此，我們認為這對 Peace River 和整個 Mercer 來說都具有戰略意義，因為它為我們在其他工廠進行碳​​捕獲打開了大門。

Now to the second part of your question around the capital requirement for it, it is obviously an expensive project. But when I say expenses, it's probably north of $500 million. However, the beauty of this is that, it is one of these -- these type of projects are incredibly supported by the government and by the state of Alberta. So we expect no less than 60% of it to be covered by grants. And then the remaining 40% or 35% that we're seeing would be up to us.

現在回到你問題的第二部分，關於它的資本要求，這顯然是一個昂貴的項目。但當我說費用時，它可能超過 5 億美元。然而，它的美妙之處在於，它是其中之一——此類項目得到了政府和阿爾伯塔省的大力支持。因此，我們預計其中不少於 60% 的資金將透過補助金來支付。剩下的 40% 或 35% 則由我們自己決定。

And in this particular case, this is a joint venture that we're doing with a company called Svante. And that's a 50/50 venture. So basically, half of that would be on us. When you bring it down it's a much smaller -- it's probably less than $100 million, what would be our share of the pie. So it becomes a bite-sized project with a very, very quick payback given the revenue stream that comes out of it.

在這個特殊的案例中，我們與一家名為 Svante 的公司建立了合資企業。這是一項各佔一半的投資。所以基本上，其中一半的費用要由我們負擔。當你把它降低時，它就會小得多——可能不到 1 億美元，這就是我們所佔的份額。因此，它成為一個小型項目，考慮到它產生的收入流，回報非常快。

Great. And if I could just fit in one more on Wood Products. Could you please remind us if Torgau is configured to produce lumber for the US markets? And how that $65 million board feet of incremental production plus maybe duties on Canadian lumber pushing higher could affect the geographical sales mix through the balance of the year?

偉大的。如果我可以在木製品方面再多說一點的話。您能否提醒我們托爾高是否配置為美國市場生產木材？那麼，6500 萬板英尺的增量產量加上可能上漲的加拿大木材關稅將如何影響全年的地理銷售組合？

And then, it sounds like you have visibility to Mass Timber revenue picking up in Q4. What kind of magnitude are we talking about? And how do you think about the timeline to get back to that revenue run rate we saw kind of Q2, Q3 of last year?

然後，聽起來您已經看到了 Mass Timber 收入在第四季度回升的跡象。我們談論的是什麼樣的量級？您認為恢復到去年第二季、第三季的營收運行率的時間表是怎樣的？

Absolutely. Yes. On Torgau, it is equipped and capable to supply the US market. As a matter of fact, that is already happening.

絕對地。是的。在托爾高，該公司擁有設備並有能力供應美國市場。事實上，這種情況已經發生了。

So we have basically pine 2x4's and studs coming out of Torgau into the US market. And it actually complements very nicely the offer that we have from SPF with Friesau. So that has actually come on in a very positive way. So we expect to see that capacity continue to grow.

因此，我們基本上有來自托爾高的松木 2x4 和立柱進入美國市場。它實際上很好地補充了 SPF 為 Friesau 提供的服務。因此這實際上是以非常積極的方式發生的。因此我們預期產能將持續成長。

As we were saying by the end of this year, we should be around 100,000 cubic meters of plane lumber being produced at Torgau and that should escalate the capacity that we have right now installed is about 250,000 cubic meters. So we still have a way to go in order to capture value from Torgau.

正如我們所說的，到今年年底，托爾高將生產約 100,000 立方米的刨花木材，這將提高我們目前的產能，目前約為 250,000 立方米。因此，我們要從托爾高獲取價值還有很長的路要走。

And if I can remind everybody, that was the thesis when we invested in Torgau, was the fact that despite of it being a pallet mill, we wanted to invest in it so that it could become a much more stronger sawmill from a lumber, plain lumber perspective. And that's what we're doing, and that's what we're proving right now, that the mill is capable of doing that. And gradually will continue to increase as time progresses. So we're satisfied with the way that is progressing and obviously look forward to having that full capacity of plain lumber out of Torgau. And which a big part of it goes into the US.

我可以提醒大家，我們投資托爾高時的論點是，儘管它是一家托盤廠，但我們希望對其進行投資，以便從木材、普通木材的角度來看，它能夠成為一家更強大的鋸木廠。這就是我們正在做的事情，也是我們現在要證明的事情，工廠有能力做到這一點。並且隨著時間的推移會逐漸持續增加。因此，我們對目前的進展感到滿意，並且顯然期待托爾高能充分發揮普通木材的產能。其中很大一部分流入了美國。

Now it will be an advantage when we think about the position that we are in producing out of Germany, both at Friesau and Torgau and we compare with the position that the Canadian sawmill industry is relative to the US with a countervailing duties and the antidumping duties going up. Obviously, that puts our German product in a much more competitive position relative to the Canadians.

現在，當我們考慮到我們在德國弗里紹和托爾高生產的地位，並與加拿大鋸木廠相對於美國的反補貼稅和反傾銷稅上升的地位進行比較時，這將是一個優勢。顯然，這使得我們的德國產品相對於加拿大產品具有更強的競爭力。

So for us, regardless of what happens with tariffs, we're obviously now much more competitive than the Canadians from that point of view. So that's something that is obviously very eager for us to continue in that direction.

因此對我們來說，無論關稅如何變化，從這個角度來看，我們現在顯然比加拿大人更具競爭力。因此，我們顯然非常渴望繼續朝這個方向努力。

And to your second question on Mass Timber. Yes, the order book is picking up steam as we go through. As one of the things that is probably important to explain as how this is different from what we saw last year, is the fact that last year, we had some very significant projects, large projects. We had the Walmart campus, which was a very big mega project. And we had also the Google project.

關於大規模木材的第二個問題。是的，隨著我們的進展，訂單量正在增加。可能需要解釋的是，這與去年的情況有何不同，去年我們有一些非常重要的項目，大型項目。我們有沃爾瑪園區，這是一個非常大的大型計畫。我們還有 Google 專案。

So there were two very large projects that commanded a big part of the revenue. And those projects are obviously very productive and we're very efficient for us. So that pushed our results very nicely in last year.

因此，有兩個非常大的項目佔據了很大一部分收入。這些項目顯然非常富有成效，而且我們的效率也很高。因此，這極大地推動了我們去年的業績。

This year as the year has come, the way it has come, those megaprojects are not there. So what we've seen is an incredible amount of growth on the smaller projects, and that's what has built up the momentum this year. Just an incredible amount of growth in smaller projects. And we do expect some of those mega projects to come back in '26 and '27. There's very good progress with several of them, given the reputation that we built for ourselves with some of the ones that we delivered.

今年，隨著情勢的轉變，那些大型計畫並沒有出現。因此，我們看到小型專案取得了令人難以置信的成長，這就是今年發展勢頭的形成原因。小型專案的成長速度令人難以置信。我們確實預計其中一些大型專案將在 2026 年和 2027 年恢復。鑑於我們透過一些計畫建立起來的聲譽，其中幾項工作都取得了非常好的進展。

We're highly confident that we'll get back on those mega project trends in '26 on top of the growth that we're seeing already on the smaller projects that we're picking up. So that's why we're very, very confident about the growth potential for this in 2026.

我們非常有信心，在我們已經看到的小型專案的成長的基礎上，我們將在 26 年恢復那些大型專案的趨勢。這就是為什麼我們對 2026 年的成長潛力非常有信心。

Cole Hathorn, Jefferies.

科爾·哈索恩，傑富瑞集團。

I'd just like to follow up on the Pulp market. I mean, we've seen Metsa Fibre take software downtime. We're seeing UPM take some software downtime in the Nordics, which hopefully reduces inventory levels and you talk about some potential recovery in the fourth quarter and into 2026. But I'm actually wondering what the lumber duties do to some of the Canadian sawmills and ultimately, the pulp mills. With the lumber duties at the moment, does this put some sawmills at risk, which reduces the available fiber to some of these -- of your competitor pulp mills?

我只是想關註一下紙漿市場。我的意思是，我們已經看到 Metsa Fibre 的軟體停機了。我們看到 UPM 在北歐地區的一些軟體出現停機，這有望降低庫存水平，並且您談到了第四季度和 2026 年可能出現的復甦。但我實際上想知道木材稅對加拿大的一些鋸木廠以及最終的紙漿廠會產生什麼影響。目前徵收的木材稅是否會使一些鋸木廠面臨風險，從而減少一些競爭對手紙漿廠的可用纖維？

Are we potentially going to see further supply disruptions in Canada now that we've got these lumber duties? I just like your thoughts around that and who's better placed versus not?

既然我們已經徵收了這些木材關稅，我們是否有可能看到加拿大進一步的供應中斷？我只是喜歡你對此的想法，誰的處境比較有利，誰的處境比較不利？

Perfect. I appreciate the call and the question. And yes, you're absolutely right in the diagnosis that you put forward. We share your opinion that with the countervailing duties going the way they have increased, that will put a lot of strain on sawmills in Canada. We would not be surprised if as a consequence of this increment in the countervailing duties and antidumping duties that more sawmills may need to close and shut down. And with that, obviously, what that would put is a lot more pressure on fiber or access to chips in BC in particular.

完美的。我很感謝您的來電和提問。是的，您提出的診斷完全正確。我們同意您的觀點，隨著反補貼稅的增加，這將對加拿大的鋸木廠帶來很大壓力。如果由於反補貼稅和反傾銷稅的增加而導致更多鋸木廠需要關閉，我們不會感到驚訝。顯然，這會對不列顛哥倫比亞省的光纖或晶片接入帶來更大的壓力。

That obviously doesn't play well for any of the mills located in BC. We feel we're very lucky that we are located, where we are located, that we have put in place a strategy two years ago to look at sourcing from the US rather than depending on BC. As I mentioned in the call earlier, 45% of our fiber is coming from the US. We have potential to increase that if we need, and it is very competitive fiber. So for us, we don't suffer. We're very well positioned, and we won't suffer if there is further closures of sawmills and whatnot.

這對於位於 BC 的任何一家工廠來說顯然都不是好事。我們感到非常幸運，因為我們兩年前就制定了從美國採購而不是依賴 BC 的策略。正如我之前在電話中提到的，我們 45% 的光纖來自美國。如果需要的話，我們有潛力增加這個數字，而且它是一種非常有競爭力的纖維。所以對我們來說，我們不會受苦。我們的定位非常有利，如果鋸木廠等進一步關閉，我們不會受到影響。

In comparison to others. I think that any other pulp mill, in BC in particular, especially those that are further up north they would suffer the consequence directly. And there could be potential for a pulp mill closure or further curtailment in Canada and not only in Finland, like we've seen.

與其他人相比。我認為任何其他紙漿廠，特別是不列顛哥倫比亞省的紙漿廠，尤其是那些位於較北部的紙漿廠，都將直接遭受後果。正如我們所見，不僅在芬蘭，加拿大也有可能關閉紙漿廠或進一步削減產量。

So yes, that all goes back to some of the reasons why we think that from a pricing perspective for softwood, the trend, no matter how you look at it, is upwards because from a supply perspective, there's going to be further and further constraints. And obviously, if fiber prices go up, that will also push breakeven prices for pulp mills go up and that kind of sets a little bit of the floor at what softwood can settle.

所以是的，這一切都回到了我們認為從軟木定價角度來看無論如何趨勢都是向上的一些原因，因為從供應角度來看，限制會越來越多。顯然，如果纖維價格上漲，那也會推高紙漿廠的損益平衡價格，從而為軟木的穩定價格設定一個底線。

So we see it today. The $700 is probably the floor price right now for softwood just as it's a little bit below $500 for hardwood. So for our mills, again, Celgar are pretty much okay under that circumstance. And in Peace River, obviously, we don't, since we have our FMA. We have no problem with access to fiber. It's pretty much the country have more fiber than what we need.

所以我們今天就看到了它。700 美元可能是目前軟木的底價，就像硬木的價格略低於 500 美元一樣。因此，對於我們的工廠來說，在這種情況下，Celgar 還是相當不錯的。而在 Peace River，顯然我們沒有，因為我們有 FMA。我們接入光纖沒有任何問題。這個國家的纖維產量基本上超過了我們的需求。

And then maybe expanding on that. I mean, I agree with kind of the $700 a tonne kind of cost curve support levels and if there was an exit in Canada, it would be material for the softwood markets to impact pricing. But if I look at your business in Europe, you are second to first cost quartile in Europe. Is there any kind of disclosure you can give on the relative profitability levels of your pulp operations in Europe versus Canada, just to kind of give a feel for where you are in Europe versus Canada. What the profitability like is in Europe?

然後也許會進一步擴展這一點。我的意思是，我同意每噸 700 美元的成本曲線支撐水平，如果加拿大有出口，這將對軟木市場產生重大影響。但如果我看一下您在歐洲的業務，您會發現您在歐洲的成本排名僅次於第一四分位數。您能否透露一下您在歐洲和加拿大的紙漿業務的相對盈利水平，以便讓您了解一下您在歐洲和加拿大的狀況。歐洲的獲利能力如何？

And maybe just frame the value of those European pulp mills. I mean, we had Metsa Fibre that recently built their expanded pulp mill, but the replacement value of those two European assets would be bordering $2 billion. I'm just wondering how you see the value of that European pulp mill system? If you can give any kind of color there, that would be helpful.

或許只是估算一下歐洲紙漿廠的價值。我的意思是，Metsa Fibre 最近擴建了他們的紙漿廠，但這兩個歐洲資產的重置價值將接近 20 億美元。我只是想知道您如何看待歐洲紙漿廠系統的價值？如果您可以提供任何顏色，那將會很有幫助。

Absolutely. Well, we have a very large pulp mill in Stendal. We're talking 740,000 tonnes of softwood capacity and Rosenthal being probably 370,000 tonnes or so. So one very large and one average size pulp mill. However, that average size pulp mill, it's Rosenthal, is an incredibly efficient pulp mill. It runs like clockwork. So when it comes to the competitiveness of it, it is up there and very, very, very high.

絕對地。嗯，我們在施滕達爾有一家非常大的紙漿廠。我們談論的是 74 萬噸軟木產能，而羅森塔爾的產能大概是 37 萬噸左右。因此，一個非常大的紙漿廠和一個平均規模的紙漿廠。然而，這家平均規模的紙漿廠，也就是羅森塔爾，卻是一家效率極高的紙漿廠。它運轉起來就像時鐘一樣。因此，就其競爭力而言，它是名列前茅的，而且非常非常高。

We feel very confident about the profit stream that comes from Rosenthal, even in times like these, we're well below -- our breakeven point is well below where the market sits nowadays. So those assets are very competitive.

我們對羅森塔爾的利潤流非常有信心，即使在這樣的時期，我們的損益平衡點也遠低於目前的市場水準。因此這些資產的競爭力非常強。

Celgar, very similar to Rosenthal. It has demonstrated and last year was testament to that. The profitability of Celgar last year was just as equivalent as Rosenthal, so very, very resilient, still positive even with pulp prices at the levels that they are right now. So when it comes to softwood, even with the prices that we see today, our mills -- all of our mills are profitable. And obviously, Stendal being the largest is obviously we take advantage of those economies of scale, and it becomes incredibly resilient.

Celgar，與Rosenthal非常相似。事實已經證明這一點，去年的情況也證明了這一點。Celgar 去年的盈利能力與 Rosenthal 相當，因此非常有彈性，即使紙漿價格處於目前的水平，其盈利能力仍然為正。因此，就軟木而言，即使以我們今天看到的價格，我們的工廠——我們所有的工廠都是盈利的。顯然，Stendal 是最大的，我們利用了規模經濟，它變得非常有彈性。

Now hardwood is a different -- it's a different story because obviously, we're located in Alberta and further far markets, logistic costs are more expensive to get the pulp out of there. And we're talking aspen pulp, not eucalyptus grown in Brazil. So obviously, our competitiveness on hardwood is different than when it comes to softwood.

現在硬木的情況有所不同——這是一個不同的故事，因為顯然，我們位於阿爾伯塔省和更遠的市場，將紙漿運出那裡的物流成本更高。我們談論的是白楊木漿，而不是巴西生長的尤加利。顯然，我們在硬木方面的競爭力與軟木方面的競爭力不同。

In terms of valuation, I wouldn't be able to give you a number that would -- it would be a guess at this point in time. But we're very confident about the high value of the assets that we have in both continents. Again, the value comes not only from the potential that they are offering today, but what they can also bring in the future.

就估值而言，我無法給你一個數字——目前這只是一個猜測。但我們對我們在兩大洲所擁有的資產的高價值非常有信心。再次強調，價值不僅來自於他們今天所提供的潛力，也來自於他們未來所能帶來的潛力。

We talk about lignin out of Rosenthal. That could be a very significant revenue stream for the mill. We have a pilot plant that is running. We have plans to build the commercial plant probably starting in 2027. That's what we aim for to have a project for commercial facility of lignin. That could generate three times as much value than what we get from energy revenues today.

我們談論羅森塔爾的木質素。這對工廠來說可能是非常重要的收益來源。我們有一個正在運作的試驗工廠。我們計劃於 2027 年開始建造商業工廠。這就是我們的目標，建立一個木質素商業設施項目。這可以產生比我們今天能源收入多三倍的價值。

In Stendal, we have a similar project looking also at gasification of black liquor and the potential that, that can bring and the fallback position being lignin on both assets. And in Stendal, we have the possibility of CO2 capture which is what we're doing in Peace River as we mentioned. So there's a lot of potential in the assets beyond what we're doing, and that's why we see them incredibly more valuable than just thinking of them as pure pulp assets. We see them strategically as by refineries, and we want to develop them that way.

在施滕達爾，我們有一個類似的項目，也在研究黑液氣化及其可能帶來的潛力，以及這兩項資產的後備地位——木質素。在施滕達爾，我們有可能捕獲二氧化碳，正如我們在和平河所提到的。因此，除了我們正在做的事情之外，這些資產還有很多潛力，這就是為什麼我們認為它們比僅僅將它們視為純紙漿資產更有價值。我們從戰略上將它們視為煉油廠，並且我們希望以這種方式來開發它們。

And then finally, if you permit me, I mean, we've heard a lot in Europe around Germany infrastructure spending, an improvement into 2026. I'm just wondering how you think about your pallets and lumber business, in particular, exposed to any form of either infrastructure spending or kind of recovery spending if the German government does give tax deductions like they're giving in the US for accelerated, depreciation, et cetera. Will Mercer be a beneficiary there?

最後，如果您允許的話，我的意思是，我們在歐洲聽到了很多關於德國基礎設施支出的消息，到 2026 年將會有所改善。我只是想知道，如果德國政府確實像美國一樣給予加速、折舊等稅收減免，您如何看待您的托盤和木材業務，特別是受到任何形式的基礎設施支出或復甦支出的影響。美世會從中受益嗎？

And then maybe, Richard, just a quick one. Are you expecting any energy rebates in your business in 4Q at all from Germany?

然後也許，理查德，只是一個快速的問題。您是否期望貴公司在第四季從德國獲得任何能源回扣？

Yes, on Germany, what we can see is that as you will mention, this push from the government for further spending is obviously very good news for the country as a whole. It would generate a lot of push for the economy. And if we have that push for the economy that it immediately translates into benefits for industry moving goods and if goods are being moved, then pallet prices -- pallet prices should go up, because pallet demand will obviously pick up naturally.

是的，關於德國，我們可以看到，正如您所提到的，政府推動進一步支出的舉措顯然對整個國家來說是個好消息。這將為經濟帶來很大的推動力。如果我們推動經濟發展，它會立即轉化為貨物運輸行業的利益，如果貨物被運輸，那麼托盤價格——托盤價格應該會上漲，因為托盤需求顯然會自然回升。

So -- and we are very sensitive, very sensitive to any price increase in pallet prices, as I mentioned before. So we're very energized by the policies that the current government has laid out and what that would mean for the German economy recovering, although we recognize that even though they have been announced already and that they are in place already, it doesn't have an immediate effect.

所以 - 正如我之前提到的，我們對托盤價格的任何上漲都非常敏感。因此，我們對現任政府制定的政策以及這些政策對德國經濟復甦的意義感到非常振奮，儘管我們認識到，儘管這些政策已經宣布並已到位，但不會立即產生效果。

So we do see a gradual improvement more into the second half of '26 than earlier than that. We wish it was faster, but I think these things will take time to simmer into all the economy and the different industries as well.

因此，我們確實看到 26 年下半年的情況比之前有所逐步改善。我們希望它能更快一些，但我認為這些事情需要時間來滲透到整個經濟和各個產業。

Rich, I'll pass it onto you, to the second part.

里奇，我會把它傳給你，到第二部分。

Yes. So no, we're not expecting any energy rebates in Germany or Europe in general. Yes.

是的。所以，我們並不期望德國或整個歐洲有任何能源回扣。是的。

I'm showing no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Juan Carlos for closing remarks.

我沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給胡安·卡洛斯，請他做最後發言。

Well, thank you, Michelle, and thanks to you all for joining our call. Rich and I are available to talk more at any time. So don't hesitate to call one of us. Otherwise, we look forward to speaking to you again on our next earnings call in November. Bye for now.

好吧，謝謝你，米歇爾，也謝謝大家參加我們的電話會議。我和 Rich 隨時可以進行進一步交談。所以不要猶豫，打電話給我們吧。否則，我們期待在 11 月的下一次收益電話會議上再次與您交談。暫時再見。

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

感謝您的參與。這確實結束了程序，您現在可以斷開連接了。祝大家有個愉快的一天。