Methanex Corp (MEOH) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Kate and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Methanex Corporation first quarter 2025, results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

早安.我叫凱特，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Methanex Corporation 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。所有線路均已靜音，以防止任何背景噪音。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

I would now like to share the conference call over to the director of investor relations at Methanex, Ms. Sarah Herriott, please go ahead, Ms. Herriott.

現在，我想將電話會議內容分享給 Methanex 的投資者關係總監 Sarah Herriott 女士，請繼續，Herriott 女士。

Good morning everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2025 ,results conference call. Our 2025, first quarter news release, management discussion and analysis, and financial statements can be accessed from the Financial tabs, financial reports tab of the investor relations page on our website at Methanex.com. I would like to remind our listeners that our comments and answers to your questions today may contain forward-looking information. This information by its nature is subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause the stated outcome to differ materially from the actual outcome. Certain material factors, or assumptions were applied in drawing the conclusions or making the forecast or projections, which are included in the forward-looking information. Please refer to our first quarter 2025, MDNA and to our 2024, annual report for more information.

大家早安。歡迎參加我們的 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。您可從我們網站 Methanex.com 上的投資者關係頁面的「財務」標籤、「財務報告」標籤存取我們的 2025 年第一季新聞稿、管理層討論與分析以及財務報表。我想提醒我們的聽眾，我們今天對您的問題的評論和回答可能包含前瞻性資訊。此資訊本質上具有風險和不確定性，可能導致所述結果與實際結果有重大差異。在得出結論或做出預測或預期時，應用了某些重要因素或假設，這些都包含在前瞻性資訊中。請參閱我們的 2025 年第一季 MDNA 和 2024 年年度報告以了解更多資訊。

I would also like to caution our listeners that any projections provided today regarding Methanex's future financial performance are effective as of today's date. It is our policy not to comment on or update this guidance between quarters. For clarification, any references to revenue, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, adjusted income, or adjusted earnings per share, made in today's remarks, reflect our 63.1% economic interest in the Atlas facility, our 50% economic interest in the E facility, and our 60% interest in waterfront shipping. In addition, we report our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income to exclude the mark to market impact on share-based compensation and the impact of certain items associated with specific identified events.

我還想提醒我們的聽眾，今天提供的有關 Methanex 未來財務業績的任何預測均自今天起有效。我們的政策是不在季度之間對該指南進行評論或更新。需要澄清的是，今天的評論中提到的任何收入、EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA、現金流、調整後收入或調整後每股收益都反映了我們在 Atlas 設施中的 63.1% 的經濟利益、我們在 E 設施中的 50% 的經濟利益以及我們在海濱航運中的 60% 的利益。此外，我們報告調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的淨收入，以排除以市價計價對股權激勵的影響以及與特定已識別事件相關的某些項目的影響。

These items are Non-GAAP measures and ratios that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. We report these Non-GAAP measures in this way because we believe they are a better measure of underlying operating performance, and we encourage analysts covering the company to report their estimates in this manner. I would now like to turn the call over to Methanex's President and CEO, Mr. Rich Sumner, for his comments and a question and answer period.

這些項目是非公認會計準則指標和比率，沒有公認會計準則規定的任何標準化含義，因此不太可能與其他公司提出的類似指標進行比較。我們以這種方式報告這些非公認會計準則指標，因為我們相信它們能夠更好地衡量潛在的營運業績，並且我們鼓勵負責該公司的分析師以這種方式報告他們的估計。現在，我想將電話轉給 Methanex 總裁兼執行長 Rich Sumner 先生，請他發表評論並進行問答。

Thank you, Sarah, and good morning everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to discuss our first quarter of 2025, results. Our first quarter averaged realized price of $404 per ton and produced sales of approximately $1.7 million tons generated just $248 million and adjusted net income of $1.30 per share.

謝謝你，莎拉，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們，討論我們 2025 年第一季的業績。我們第一季的平均實現價格為每噸 404 美元，銷售額約為 170 萬美元，每噸僅產生 2.48 億美元的收入，調整後每股淨收入為 1.30 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was higher compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to a higher average [sized] price and higher produced sales.

調整後的 EBITDA 與 2024 年第四季相比有所上升，主要原因是平均 [尺寸] 價格上漲和產量增加。

As we entered the first quarter, Methanol markets were very tight, with numerous supply constraints across the industry, leading to pressure on global inventories.

進入第一季度，甲醇市場非常緊張，整個產業的供應受到許多限制，導致全球庫存面臨壓力。

In the Atlantic basin, supply was restricted by planned and unplanned outages, gas feedstock constraints, and restricted flows from the Middle East caused by the conflicts in the region.

在大西洋盆地，由於計畫內和計畫外的停運、天然氣原料限制以及中東地區衝突導致的流量限制，天然氣供應受到限制。

In the Pacific Basin, supply was restricted primarily from very low operating rates in Iran, which we estimate at well below 50% through the first quarter.

在太平洋盆地，供應受到限制，主要原因是伊朗的開工率非常低，我們估計第一季伊朗的開工率遠低於 50%。

These conditions led to pressure on global inventories and high Methanol pricing through most of the first quarter.

這些情況導致全球庫存壓力加大，第一季大部分時間甲醇價格居高不下。

Conditions in the Atlantic basin improved through the first quarter as plants returned from planned and unplanned outages, as well as increased supply flows from the Middle East into Europe. And as a result, we saw a decrease in Methanol pricing in the Atlantic from high levels as we moved into the second quarter. In the Pacific, we've seen some improvement in operating rates in the basin with increased production from Iran, although coastal inventories in China remained well below prior year average levels through April. In China, we've seen methanol spot pricing decrease by approximately $20 per metric ton from Q1 levels, which we believe is driven by the anticipation of increased supply into the market and some moderation in global energy pricing impacting marginal production costs and MTO affordability. We estimate the current marginal cost of production in China in the $270 to $280 per ton range.

隨著電廠從計畫內和計畫外停機中恢復運行，以及中東向歐洲的供應量增加，大西洋盆地的狀況在第一季有所改善。因此，進入第二季後，我們看到大西洋地區的甲醇價格從高點回落。在太平洋地區，隨著伊朗產量的增加，我們看到該盆地的開工率有所提高，儘管截至 4 月份，中國沿海庫存仍遠低於去年平均水準。在中國，我們看到甲醇現貨價格較第一季水準下降了約 20 美元/公噸，我們認為這是由於預期市場供應增加以及全球能源價格有所緩和，從而影響了邊際生產成本和 MTO 的可負擔性。我們估計中國目前的生產邊際成本在每噸 270 至 280 美元之間。

We posted our second quarter European quarterly price at €625 per ton, representing a €75 decrease from the first quarter. Our posted prices for North America, Asia Pacific, and China were flat in April and decreased in May.

我們公佈的第二季歐洲季度價格為每噸 625 歐元，比第一季下降了 75 歐元。我們在北美、亞太地區和中國的公佈價格四月持平，五月有所下降。

We're closely monitoring the impact of potential tariffs on global economic activity and are cautiously managing our business through this period of uncertainty. Although the direct impact of tariffs on our business currently is limited, an economic slowdown would impact methanol demand.

我們正在密切關注潛在關稅對全球經濟活動的影響，並在這段不確定時期謹慎管理我們的業務。雖然目前關稅對我們業務的直接影響有限，但經濟放緩會影響甲醇需求。

Today, we have not seen an impact on methanol demand, and we expect demand in the second quarter to be higher than the first quarter, given increased seasonal activity and construction and mobility, as well as higher MTO operating rates. MTO operating rates are expected to increase given increased supply availability in the market from seasonally higher operating rates from the methanol industry in the second quarter.

目前，我們尚未看到甲醇需求受到影響，並且考慮到季節性活動和建設及流動性的增加，以及 MTO 開工率的提高，我們預計第二季的需求將高於第一季。由於第二季甲醇產業季節性開工率上升，市場供應增加，預計 MTO 開工率將會上升。

Now turning to our operations, methanal production in the first quarter was lower compared to the 4th quarter, with lower production from Geismar, Trinidad, and Egypt. In Geismar, production was lower due to a planned turnaround at G2 and an unplanned outage at G3 at the end of February. G2 successfully restarted in March and is operating at full rates. We announced this morning that G3 has successfully restarted and has begun producing methanol. Our team worked closely with Johnson Matthey, the technology provider, during the outage to complete a root cause analysis and revised startup plan, which was successfully executed by the team.

現在談談我們的營運情況，第一季的甲醛產量與第四季相比有所下降，其中蓋斯馬、特立尼達和埃及的產量較低。在蓋斯馬，由於 G2 計劃檢修和 2 月底 G3 意外停產，產量有所下降。G2 於 3 月成功重啟並全速運轉。我們今天早上宣布，G3 已成功重啟並開始生產甲醇。我們的團隊在停電期間與技術提供者莊信萬豐密切合作，完成了根本原因分析和修改後的啟動計劃，並成功執行了該計劃。

In Chile, I'm very happy to share that both plants have been operating at full rates and production was higher in the first quarter due to better reliability and a technical constraint being removed during the outage that occurred in November 2024. We have gas contracts in place with Chilean and Argentinian producers until 2030 and 2027 respectively, which underpin approximately 55% of the site's gas requirements year round.

在智利，我很高興地告訴大家，兩家工廠都已滿載運轉，由於可靠性更高，且 2024 年 11 月停電期間技術限制被消除，第一季的產量更高。我們與智利和阿根廷生產商簽訂了分別有效期至 2030 年和 2027 年的天然氣合同，可滿足該站點全年約 55% 的天然氣需求。

We continue to expect seasonality and production, but are seeing positive developments making full gas supply for a two-lit operation available for longer periods.

我們繼續預期季節性和產量，但看到積極的發展，為雙燈操作提供更長的全面天然氣供應。

In Egypt, the first quarter of production was 20,000 tons lower than the fourth quarter due to gas curtailments that were driven by gas supply demand balances in the country. We're monitoring the gas market closely and would expect to experience some curtailments in 2025, particularly in the summer months, depending on gas supply and demand dynamics.

在埃及，由於該國天然氣供需平衡導致天然氣減產，第一季產量比第四季減少了 20,000 噸。我們正在密切關注天然氣市場，預計 2025 年會出現一些減產現象，特別是在夏季，這取決於天然氣的供需動態。

Now turning to our current financial position and outlook, we ended the first quarter with $1 billion and $31 million dollars of our share of cash and continued and continued access to our $500 million dollar undrawn revolving credit facility. As a reminder in the fourth quarter, we executed our OCI acquisition financing plan, including issuing a $600 million bond. And the securing $650 million dollar term loan a commitments from our banking partners. The completion of these financing arrange arrangements gives us financial capacity to complete the OCI acquisition and flexibly achieve our deleveraging plan.

現在談談我們目前的財務狀況和前景，第一季結束時，我們擁有 10.31 億美元的現金，並可以繼續使用 5 億美元的未提取循環信貸額度。提醒一下，在第四季度，我們執行了 OCI 收購融資計劃，包括發行 6 億美元的債券。並獲得我們銀行合作夥伴承諾的 6.5 億美元定期貸款。這些融資安排的完成使我們有財務能力完成OCI收購並靈活實現我們的去槓桿計劃。

We are continuing to progress the regulatory process and expect the transaction to close in Q2 2025.

我們正在繼續推進監管流程，預計交易將於 2025 年第二季完成。

Our 2025, priorities are to safely, reliably and efficiently operate our business, close the OCI transaction and achieve the identified synergies and direct all free cash flow to reduce leverage. We do not anticipate significant growth capital over the next few years and remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility, paying particular attention to the prevailing economic environment.

我們 2025 年的首要任務是安全、可靠、有效率地經營我們的業務，完成 OCI 交易並實現確定的協同效應，並引導所有自由現金流以降低槓桿率。我們預計未來幾年資本不會大幅成長，並將繼續專注於維持強勁的資產負債表和財務靈活性，並特別關注當前的經濟環境。

Based on our second quarter European posted price, along with our April and May posted pricing in North America, China, and Asia Pacific, our April and May average real life price range is forecasted between approximately $360 and $370 per metric ton.

根據我們第二季在歐洲公佈的價格以及我們在北美、中國和亞太地區四月和五月公佈的價格，我們預測四月和五月的平均實際價格範圍約為每公噸 360 美元至 370 美元。

Based on this lower forecasted average realized price, coupled with lower produced sales due to the G3 outage, we expect lower adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2025, compared to the first quarter. We would now be happy to answer questions.

基於這一較低的預測平均實現價格，再加上 G3 停電導致的產量下降，我們預計 2025 年第二季的調整後 EBITDA 將低於第一季。我們現在很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson with Scotchabank. Your line is open.

（操作員指令）。您的第一個問題來自蘇格蘭銀行的 Ben Isaacson。您的線路已開通。

Thank you very much and good morning everyone. I have two questions.

非常感謝，大家早安。我有兩個問題。

Rich, the first one is on capital allocation. I'm sure it's one you've been asked before. When you, when the OCI deal was announced, your stock was $40 and the weighted average spot price was about $350 or so. Now the stock is $30 the weighted average price is getting closer to $300. So the buyback return opportunity has has improved, and from a time value of money point of view, the OCI return has kind of taken a very slight decline. Balance sheet risk has increased slightly. I'm not asking whether or not there's an opportunity to do buybacks instead of OCI. My question is, How flexible is the board willing to be on this type of calculus? What is the threshold that they think about when deciding whether to pivot into something like buybacks versus completing this transaction without being criticized of too much short termism?

Rich，第一個是關於資本配置的。我確信你之前也問過這個問題。當 OCI 交易宣佈時，您的股票價格為 40 美元，而加權平均現貨價格約為 350 美元左右。現在股價為 30 美元，加權平均價格接近 300 美元。因此，回購回報機會已經改善，而從貨幣時間價值的角度來看，OCI 回報則略有下降。資產負債表風險略有增加。我並不是問是否有機會進行回購而不是 OCI。我的問題是，董事會對於這種類型的運算願意有多大的彈性？在決定是否轉向回購之類的行動，還是完成這筆交易而不被批評為過於短期主義時，他們考慮的門檻是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Ben. I think, when we talk about capital allocation and we look at our priorities for capital, number one, we want to have a strong balance sheet and be able to maintain our business through all cycles. And when we did the, and the second thing is also looking at growth capital and when we looked at both of those opportunities with the OCI acquisition, we're very excited about the value that creates for the company, but what we were committed to and remain committed to is the levering the balance sheet, and that's the continued focus for all of our free cash generation right now until we get to a place where we are, where we were pre-deal, with a much stronger asset base, having brought on those assets, so. That's the main focus and right now we're not considering share repurchases at this moment.

謝謝，本。我認為，當我們談論資本配置並考慮資本的優先事項時，首先，我們希望擁有強勁的資產負債表並能夠在所有周期中維持我們的業務。當我們這樣做的時候，第二件事也是關注成長資本，當我們關注 OCI 收購的兩個機會時，我們對為公司創造的價值感到非常興奮，但我們致力於並將繼續致力於利用資產負債表，這是我們目前所有自由現金產生的持續關注點，直到我們達到交易前的水平，擁有更強大的資產基礎，帶來這些資產，所以。這是主要關注點，目前我們暫時不考慮股票回購。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Thank you for that. And then my follow up question is on Iran.

謝謝你。我的後續問題是關於伊朗的。

Can you give an update for in terms of what you know about this port explosion and how it impacts methanol, whether it's trade, nearby capacity, storage, and then also what is your latest intel in terms of the impact that sanctions or the ramp of enforcement of sanctions are having on Iran methanol flow.

您能否提供關於這次港口爆炸的最新消息以及它對甲醇的影響，包括貿易、附近的產能、儲存，以及您對制裁或製裁執行力度加大對伊朗甲醇流動的影響的最新消息。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Yeah, thanks, Ben. So first and foremost though, that was a really tragic event that happened in Iran and it, we don't believe that's impacted methanol in any way, but obviously that's something that, they're going to have to review and figure out what that does in from a safety and operational perspective, but not impacting methanol as it relates to sanctions. I think what we saw through Q4 and Q1 is we saw Iran probably at at some of the lowest points we've seen in from an operating, which is mainly because of the gas situation there we believe a lot of residential demand combined with how the gas infrastructure performs and obviously that has to do with the impact of sanctions on their ability to produce and explore and invest in infrastructure there. So we saw well below 50% operating rates through Q1. We are starting to see increased rates as we come out of the winter period. We get most of our intel by looking at trade flows statistics, so we don't have a lot of insight into actually how each plant is operating and we continue to monitor that, but we are expecting, an increase in Iran flows into coastal China in the coming months.

是的，謝謝，本。因此，首先，這是伊朗發生的一次真正悲慘的事件，我們認為這不會對甲醇產生任何影響，但顯然他們必須從安全和營運的角度進行審查並弄清楚這會產生什麼影響，但不會對與制裁有關的甲醇產生影響。我認為，從第四季度和第一季的情況來看，伊朗的天然氣供應可能處於運營以來的最低點，這主要是因為那裡的天然氣狀況，我們認為大量的住宅需求加上天然氣基礎設施的表現，顯然這與制裁對其生產、勘探和投資基礎設施的能力的影響有關。因此，我們看到第一季的營運率遠低於 50%。隨著冬季的結束，我們開始看到費率上漲。我們的大部分情報都是透過查看貿易流量統計數據獲得的，因此我們對每個工廠的實際運作情況沒有太多的了解，我們會繼續監測這一點，但我們預計，未來幾個月流入中國沿海地區的伊朗原油數量將會增加。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)。您的線路已開通。

Morning, so great that G3 is starting to ramp back up over the last little while here. When you think about that plant and some of the challenges you've had on its a bit of a different set up configurations and have other plants, and I think that of a configuration sort of requires.

早上好，太好了，G3 在過去的一段時間裡又開始恢復了。當您考慮該工廠以及您遇到的一些挑戰時，它的設定配置有點不同，並且有其他工廠，我認為這是一種配置要求。

What's the right word, like more user experience, competence, getting to know the asset better? Can you talk about that as the team learns to run this asset better.how much confidence you have you can run this plant at 95% like your other plants, or if, or do you have to model for more maintenance, more downtime, more issues, going forward.

正確的詞語是什麼？例如更多的使用者體驗、能力、更了解資產？當團隊學會更好地運行這項資產時，您能否談談這一點？您有多大信心可以像其他工廠一樣以 95% 的效率運作工廠？或者，您是否必須為未來更多的維護、更多的停機時間、更多的問題進行建模？

Oh thanks, Joel, the big thing for us was getting the right restart startup conditions for the ATR so that was, that has been the challenges we've worked through. We worked really closely with Jay with Johnson Matthey as well as bringing third parties here, to help us through that process and. What we did is we've now got restart conditions. This startup went very smooth, we've also built in validation checks that would tell us, the two issues we experienced and all of our validation checks have looked really good. And these conditions can be, would also be used any time we go to, if we ever have the plant come down for maintenance or an unplanned and unplanned maintenance, so we expect that these conditions look really good, everything's checked out and we feel really good about the ability for this plant to be up and running on a sustained basis and, planning for high reliability, so. We have to, we obviously have to, prove that out and have a sustained run, but the startup went extremely smooth and we're very happy with where we're at right now.

哦，謝謝，喬爾，對我們來說最重要的是為 ATR 獲得正確的重啟啟動條件，這就是我們一直在努力克服的挑戰。我們與莊信萬豐的傑伊密切合作，並引入第三方來幫助我們完成這一過程。我們所做的就是我們現在有了重啟的條件。這次啟動非常順利，我們還內建了驗證檢查，可以告訴我們遇到的兩個問題，我們所有的驗證檢查看起來都非常好。這些條件可以、也可以在我們任何時候使用，如果我們需要工廠停機維護或進行計劃外和計劃外的維護，所以我們預計這些條件看起來非常好，一切都經過檢查，我們對該工廠持續運行的能力感到非常滿意，併計劃實現高可靠性，所以。我們必須，顯然我們必須證明這一點並持續運行，但啟動過程非常順利，我們對目前的狀況非常滿意。

Okay, and then you have a busy month or so coming up, right? I guess you're going to close the OCI assets in the next immediate weeks. Have you been able to get some more color on how Naga and Beaumont have ramped up? I've seen things that they're doing better than they have in the past, or is this you really only get on site once you close the deal.

好的，接下來的一個月你會很忙，對嗎？我猜你會在接下來的幾週內關閉 OCI 資產。您是否能夠進一步了解 Naga 和 Beaumont 的發展？我看到他們所做的事情比過去要好，或者這只是在達成交易後才真正進入現場。

It is more we get on site once we close the deal and we hear about industry operating rights through the same news reports or industry analysts that a lot of people read both those plants have come off of turnarounds recently, So that's a bonus for us and but we will we're on our way to move through the regulatory process in Q2 and are excited to bring those world-class assets into our supply chain.

一旦我們完成交易，我們就會到達現場，並透過許多人讀到的相同新聞報道或行業分析師了解行業經營權，這兩家工廠最近都已實現扭虧為盈，這對我們來說是一個額外的好處，但我們將在第二季度完成監管程序，並很高興將這些世界一流的資產納入我們的供應鏈。

If I just fit one more in, it looks like you're implying about a 40% discount rate so far to post the price in Q2. Is that the right level of discount rate we should be using as base case for the rest of the year, second half of the year, even after the OCI asset closes and after G3 is back running normal.

如果我再補充一點，看起來你暗示到目前為止在第二季公佈價格的折扣率約為 40%。這是我們應該使用的正確折扣率等級嗎？這是今年剩餘時間、下半年，甚至 OCI 資產關閉和 G3 恢復正常運作之後的基準情況。

-we gave a range of 360 to 370 for the poster price. It's probably on the higher end of that range for the few months.

-我們給的海報價格範圍是 360 到 370。這可能處於未來幾個月該範圍的較高水平。

Giving a discount rate, I think what we're looking at right now is always what's the level over China in our in our global ARP, and I think right now China's pricing in around 270, 280, and we're realizing this level. So we could see some moderation in that depending on the global supply demand balances and what we see on energy pricing, but right now we really focus on what's that real life pricing over for China and so hard to give you a discount rate. I mean, if you want to use that 40% and it's something we'd probably want to get back to you on, but right now we like the premiums that we're seeing over the in the market and we'll continue to track and monitor that as we move forward.

給出折扣率，我認為我們現在關注的始終是我們的全球 ARP 中中國的水平，我認為現在中國的定價在 270、280 左右，我們正在實現這一水平。因此，根據全球供需平衡和能源價格的情況，我們可以看到某種程度的緩和，但現在我們真正關注的是中國的實際價格，因此很難給出折扣率。我的意思是，如果你想使用那 40%，我們可能會就此回覆你，但目前我們喜歡我們在市場上看到的溢價，並且我們會繼續追蹤和監控這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS Financial. Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀金融的 Josh Spector。您的線路已開通。

Yeah, Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

是的，嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。

I wanted to ask two things on China. It's just one, where you talk about where prices are today. I mean, they've moved down decently over the last month. How do you think about the support level given where coal's moved towards? Does that leave more room to move down, or is there something where you'd say this is something that drives support here? And then second, just I know there's not really any direct trade flow here of the US into China, but just thinking about tariffs creating friction. Does that have any impact on Western basin supply at all in terms of some of the movements or Asia if that's one worth commenting on more. Thanks.

我想問兩個有關中國的問題。其中之一就是談論今天的價格。我的意思是，過去一個月它們已經大幅下降。考慮到煤炭的走向，您認為支撐位如何？這是否會留下更多下行空間，或者您是否認為這會推動這裡的支持？其次，我知道美國其實並沒有直接與中國進行貿易往來，但關稅問題會造成摩擦。就某些運動而言，這對西方盆地供應或亞洲供應是否有任何影響？如果這值得進一步評論的話。謝謝。

No, so, to answer your first question, the cost curve today is at that 270 to 280 level. That's a pretty firm cost curve, based on coal pricing and around [RMB]650 per ton, and we've seen coal pricing, it's right in kind of the range that the government kind of sets on where they target coal pricing to be.

不，所以，回答你的第一個問題，今天的成本曲線處於 270 到 280 的水平。這是一條相當堅挺的成本曲線，以煤炭價格為基礎，約為每噸 650 元人民幣，而且我們已經看到煤炭價格正好處於政府設定的煤炭價格範圍內。

So right now we've seen, we've tested our cost curve many times in this industry and it is quite resilient and responsive, and that's the level we see today and it's, the other, data check is MTO affordability and where Oliphant's pricing is at, and I would say that's another kind of data point that is pointing to around that 280 to slightly above level. So we think China's firmly in that in that space today because it relates to. Product movements and friction, isn't, we don't expect a lot of, there isn't a lot of US flows moving to China today. Actually there's there's no flows moving today. I think the biggest thing we'd be looking at, is just the impact of tariffs on export manufacturing out of China, and that's something we're going to be watching, because.

所以現在我們已經看到，我們已經在這個行業中多次測試了我們的成本曲線，它非常有彈性和響應能力，這就是我們今天看到的水平，另一個數據檢查是 MTO 的可負擔性以及 Oliphant 的定價，我想說這是另一種數據點，指向 280 左右到略高於水平。因此我們認為，中國今天在該領域堅定地佔據主導地位，因為它與之相關。產品流動和摩擦，我們預計不會有很多，目前沒有很多美國產品流向中國。實際上今天沒有任何流動。我認為我們最關注的是關稅對中國出口製造業的影響，這也是我們將要關注的事情，因為。

The Chinese manufacturing, a big proportion of that is for exports. The government's trying to stimulate domestic consumption as well, so there's actions being taken there, but that's something we're closely monitoring right now.

中國製造業很大一部分用於出口。政府也試圖刺激國內消費，因此正在採取一些行動，但這是我們目前正密切關注的事情。

I'm probably too tough to answer, but I'll try. It's just if you did have some downturn further from here in terms of China demand, would you see exports going into China needing to find a new home or would you see domestic assets shutting down? Is there any one of those that you would see as the more likely scenario?

我可能太難回答了，但我會盡力回答。只是，如果從現在起中國需求確實出現進一步下滑，您是否會看到出口到中國的商品需要尋找新的目的地，或者是否會看到國內資產關閉？您認為其中哪種情況更有可能發生？

It's pro, I mean, what we would see is if you got into, first off, we don't see a big impact because when you really boil it down, China is a big consumer of methanol. They consume about $60 million tons, about third of that is into traditional chemical applications and then if you look at how much of that is export, it, a ballpark might be about 50% of that and at about 15% of manufacturing from China goes into the US, so you get down to a pretty small number that we're monitoring, so we wouldn't expect to see a big reaction right now on demand.

這是有利的，我的意思是，我們會看到，如果你加入，首先，我們不會看到很大的影響，因為當你真正把它歸結起來時，中國是甲醇的消費大國。他們消耗了價值約 6000 萬噸的鋼材，其中約三分之一用於傳統化學應用，然後如果你看看其中有多少是出口，大概是 50% 左右，而中國製造的鋼材中約有 15% 銷往了美國，所以我們監測到的數字相當小，所以我們預計現在需求不會出現大的反應。

If you got into an oversupply situation, yeah, we'd probably see some moderation of operating rates in coastal China to balance the market, but not something we're seeing today, and we don't expect to see a big impact.

如果出現供應過剩的情況，是的，我們可能會看到中國沿海地區的開工率有所緩和，以平衡市場，但不是我們今天所看到的，我們預計不會看到大的影響。

It's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Hansen with Raymond James. Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Steve Hansen。您的線路已開通。

Yeah, good morning, guys. Thanks for the time. Just wanted to ask about risk mitigation as you move into the closing stages of the transaction here. What are the key steps you need to take or maybe some of the initiatives that you need to put in place to make sure you've got the risk managed as you take on these new assets? I'm thinking gas in particular. I know it's unhedged, any additional operational or offtake marketing type agreements, just walk us through how you can get a hold of that and take risk down and what's still a pretty uncertain environment. Thanks.

是的，大家早安。謝謝你的時間。我只是想問一下在交易進入最後階段時如何降低風險。您需要採取哪些關鍵步驟或需要採取哪些措施來確保在承擔這些新資產時能夠管理好風險？我特別想到的是天然氣。我知道這是無對沖的，任何額外的營運或承購行銷類型的協議，只要向我們介紹如何掌握它並降低風險，以及現在仍然相當不確定的環境。謝謝。

Thanks, Steve, yeah, no, we, I mean what we've done is already stood up a big integration management team that's looking at all aspects of the integration and ensure on day one we're going to be producing methanol safely and reliably as well as delivering to customers. Obviously we can't step into that business today, so but we've we've been planning as much as we can ahead of the transaction to be ready on day one. There really isn't, I don't, we don't see a lot of big risks and hurdles, but we've obviously been assessing all of the risks, and then trying to address everything we can. A big thing is, getting on the systems and being able to communicate, early and understand information flows, being able to bill and pay invoices, all of those things and we're thinking through all of that. So on day one we bring this on in a very seamless way and be able to incorporate this into our business as quickly as possible and then. And then really work on delivering on synergies which will take some time. So we've had a big team focused on this internally and working with OCI as much as possible ahead of the transaction while ensuring, all sensitivities to the to the regulatory process and that not being closed yet.

謝謝，史蒂夫，是的，不，我們，我的意思是我們所做的是已經建立了一個大型整合管理團隊，該團隊負責整合的各個方面，並確保第一天我們將安全可靠地生產甲醇並交付給客戶。顯然，我們今天無法涉足該業務，但我們已經盡可能地在交易前做好計劃，以便在第一天做好準備。確實沒有，我沒有，我們沒有看到很多大的風險和障礙，但我們顯然一直在評估所有風險，然後盡力解決所有問題。最重要的是，進入系統並能夠儘早溝通和了解資訊流，能夠開立帳單和支付發票，所有這些事情，我們正在考慮所有這些事情。因此，第一天我們就以非常無縫的方式實現這一點，並能夠盡快將其納入我們的業務中。然後真正努力實現協同效應，這需要一些時間。因此，我們有一個龐大的內部團隊專注於此事，並在交易前盡可能與 OCI 合作，同時確保所有敏感資訊都符合監管流程，並且尚未結束。

Okay, great, that's really helpful. And then just thinking back to the G3, recovery and startup now that's been been announced, is there, is there going to be gating milestones as it's going through, this new, I'll call it run rate process with the new catalyst in place or the new fixes to the ATR anyway, so how should we think about that? Is there planned ups and downs, to test out how it's going? I'm trying to get a sense of whether we should expect any sort of fluttering in the operating rate here in the next quarter or two.

好的，太好了，這真的很有幫助。然後回想一下現在已經宣布的 G3、復甦和啟動，在進行這個新過程時，是否會有門控里程碑，我稱之為運行率流程，有新的催化劑或對 ATR 的新修復，那麼我們應該如何看待這一點？是否有計劃的起伏來測試進度如何？我想了解一下未來一、兩個季度的營業率是否會出現波動。

So I think one distinction and maybe it's just something toclarify is this has all been about startup conditions and getting the unit to full operating rates. Once we've gotten to full operating rates, the auto the auto thermal reformer has operated really well at 100% operating rates. We operated at four months close to full capacity producing 600,000 tons. So once we get the unit up to full rates, it's operated extremely well. What we didn't have are startup conditions that either didn't produce it or didn't have pressure on the system that caused the catalyst damage.

因此我認為一個區別，也許只是需要澄清的是，這一切都與啟動條件和讓設備達到滿載運轉率有關。一旦我們達到滿載運轉率，自動熱重整器就能以 100% 的運轉率運作得非常好。我們四個月來幾乎滿載生產了60萬噸。因此，一旦我們讓設備達到全速率，它就會運行得非常好。我們所沒有的是啟動條件，要么沒有產生它，要么沒有對系統造成壓力，從而導致催化劑損壞。

And so what we've done through this step. And I feel very confident about that we validated through the processes that we now have startup conditions that allow us to get to that those high levels without doing any any damage within the unit. So there is no bringing down to tests. We're, we've got ourselves up to high operating rates and that's where we expect to be. Of course, any time we, if we were to have unplanned downtime, we would go in and inspect and just validate everything that we can't do while we're online, but everything online tells us, we're in good shape.

這就是我們透過這一步所做的事情。我非常有信心，我們已經透過流程驗證了我們現在擁有的啟動條件，這些條件使我們能夠達到那些高水平，而不會對設備造成任何損害。因此，沒有必要進行測試。我們已經達到了較高的營運率，這也是我們期望達到的水平。當然，任何時候，如果我們遇到計劃外的停機，我們都會進入檢查並驗證我們在線時無法做的所有事情，但網上的一切都告訴我們，我們狀況良好。

Okay, great. And then just one last one, and I apologize if I missed it earlier on some of the tariff talk, but is there any issue with bringing methanol in from Trinidad as you see it here today? Is there any, I don't know, risk to the tariff structure there and how that should impact sort of inbound flows, I guess more broadly from that from the country?

好的，太好了。然後最後一個問題，如果我之前錯過了一些關於關稅的討論，我深感抱歉，但是正如您今天所看到的，從特立尼達進口甲醇是否存在問題？我不知道那裡的關稅結構是否存在風險，以及這將如何影響來自該國的入境流量？我想更廣泛地說，這將如何影響來自該國的入境流量？

Yeah, so there is some limited flows of of Trinidad into into North America, mainly in the on the east coast supply chain, so there is a flat 10% tariff, right now, and it's pretty very minor and limited impact to the business, and that's something that we're working on right now.

是的，特立尼達流入北美的量有限，主要是在東海岸的供應鏈中，所以目前的統一關稅為 10%，這對業務的影響非常小且有限，這就是我們目前正在努力解決的問題。

Okay, very good. I appreciate your time.

好的，非常好。感謝您抽出時間。

Your next question comes from the line of [Hassan Ami with Olympic Global]. Your line is open.

你的下一個問題來自[哈桑阿米與奧林匹克全球]您的線路已開通。

Morning, Rich.

早上好，里奇。

Question around demand, over the last couple of years I take a look at a variety of sort of commodity chemicals out there, they've been pretty weak, maybe even some sort of, customers of yours. I'm just sort of thinking in terms of like polyurethane and the like, and I know that's a much smaller sort of piece of the pie, but I mean, as I read sort of some of your near term commentary. Particularly as you talked about some sequential demand declines in Q1. I mean, it just appears to me that they were, primarily call it for seasonal reasons, Lunar New Year and the like, maybe, slightly reduced MTO operating rates, and then, if I heard you correctly, you're talking about a sequential uptick in demand in In Q2, so with all of this volatility, macroeconomic volatility, some of your end markets being a little volatile, I mean, could you talk about how methanol demand is actually held up, far better than, some of the other commodities out there and what your expectations are, even in this sort of, reduced global GDP growth environment, over the next couple of quarters.

關於需求的問題，在過去的幾年裡，我研究了各種各樣的大宗化學品，它們一直很弱，甚至可能是你們的某種客戶。我只是在考慮聚氨酯之類的東西，我知道這只是一小部分，但我的意思是，當我讀到你的一些近期評論時。特別是正如您所談到的第一季需求連續下降。我的意思是，在我看來，主要是由於季節性原因，例如農曆新年之類的，MTO 開工率可能略有下降，然後，如果我沒聽錯的話，您說的是第二季度需求的連續上升，所以在所有這些波動、宏觀經濟波動、您的一些終端市場有點波動的情況下，我的意思是，您能否談談您是否可以談論這種 GDP在成長放緩的環境下，對未來幾季的預期是什麼。

Sure, thanks, I, so right now again, I think I've talked about the makeup of demand for methanol. It's, when we look about 50% is traditional chemical applications, about 30% to 35% is energy applications, and the other 15% to 20% is methanol to [olefin], so. I mean, you start with the energy applications, those have been quite good for us, and when we're seeing those, we haven't seen big variability or or volatility in that demand, it's been really stable and growing, MTO is tends to be a balance on the industry, so when there's a lot of supply in the market, they tend to operate high rates and when the supply gets tight, they tend to operate low rates, so there's a bit of a. Noise and our demand because of the balancing act of MTO operating rates on our industry. The traditional chemical applications vary by, have varied by region, and that depends heavily on GDP in in each of the in each of the regions and. That's something we monitor really closely, and it's a lot of it goes into all the leading indicators of economic activity and so you go around the world and it hasn't been particularly strong, but we haven't seen weakness and it but it's something that we're watching and we're expecting relatively flattish when we say, seasonal demand is going to pick up. We're not talking about big increases in from a percentage basis, but It was seasonally low in Q1 and it it we expect it to be seasonally higher in the second quarter. Certainly auto housing, all those leading indicators are things that we're tracking and we're going to watch closely, but I think one of the things to note about our industry relative to other petrochemical industries is that we have seen, I would call it lower growth than we've seen historically. What we are seeing is limited supply, and I think that's one of the differentiation points. Existing supply and methanol has had a hard time keeping pace even with slower growth because of constraints around Iran, constraints around Russia, Venezuela, we've seen it in Trinidad, New Zealand, etc.

當然，謝謝，所以現在，我想我已經談論了甲醇需求的組成。我們發現大約 50% 是傳統化學應用，大約 30% 到 35% 是能源應用，另外 15% 到 20% 是甲醇制烯烴。我的意思是，從能源應用開始，這些對我們來說非常好，當我們看到這些時，我們沒有看到需求出現很大的變化或波動，它一直很穩定並且在增長，MTO 往往是行業的平衡，所以當市場上有大量供應時，他們傾向於高速率運行，當供應緊張時，他們傾向於低速率運行，所以有點。由於 MTO 開工率對我們行業產生平衡作用，因此噪音和我們的需求也隨之增加。傳統化學應用因地區而異，並且很大程度上取決於每個地區的 GDP。這是我們密切關注的事情，其中​​很大一部分都體現在經濟活動的所有領先指標中，所以放眼全球，雖然經濟並沒有特別強勁，但我們也沒有看到疲軟跡象，但我們正在觀察，我們預計季節性需求將會回升，並且會相對平穩。我們並不是談論百分比基礎上的大幅成長，但第一季的季節性低點是我們預期第二季的季節性高點。當然，汽車住房，所有這些領先指標都是我們正在跟踪並密切關注的，但我認為，相對於其他石化行業，我們的行業值得注意的一點是，我們已經看到，我認為它的增長率低於歷史上的水平。我們看到的是供應有限，我認為這是差異點之一。由於伊朗、俄羅斯、委內瑞拉、特立尼達和紐西蘭等國的限制，即使成長放緩，現有供應和甲醇也很難跟上步伐。

Because of those gas feedstock or geopolitical sanctions, very a variety of number of factors has led to existing supply to be constrained and not a lot of new capacity being added in the industry. So I think, I do think there's a bit of a differentiation that even with slower demand, methanol is not getting out of balance like we do see in some of the other other sectors.

由於天然氣原料或地緣政治制裁等多種因素導致現有供應受到限制，因此產業新增產能不多。所以我認為，我確實認為存在一些差異，即使需求放緩，甲醇也不會像我們在其他一些行業中看到的那樣失去平衡。

Understood, very helpful. And as a follow up on the feedstock side of things, particularly on the US natural gas side, I mean, obviously with the close of the OCI deal, your exposure is going to get larger in the US.

明白了，很有幫助。作為對原料方面的後續關注，特別是在美國天然氣方面，我的意思是，顯然隨著 OCI 交易的結束，您在美國的風險敞口將會更大。

I mean, it just seems that, you have arguments being made on both sides of natural gas prices. Obviously we've seen a fair degree of volatility in that gas prices. Crude oil prices have come under pressure. There's some sort of pundits out there talking about how they're potentially in a lower oil price environment, could be shut-ins in the permium, I mean how now as your exposure is rising in the US with all of this sort of noise around natural gas pricing.

我的意思是，看起來，雙方對天然氣價格都有爭論。顯然，我們已經看到天然氣價格出現相當程度的波動。原油價格面臨壓力。有一些專家在談論他們如何在低油價環境下可能被禁錮，我的意思是，隨著現在圍繞天然氣定價的各種噪音，你在美國曝光率正在上升。

How are you guys thinking about Nat gas? How are you guys thinking about your existing hedging program? How are you guys thinking about the hedging program on a go forward basis with, the OCI deal eventually closing?

你們對於天然氣有什麼看法？你們對於現有的對沖計畫有何看法？隨著 OCI 交易最終結束，你們如何看待對沖計畫的進展？

Oh thanks we look at it very closely, obviously, and right now as we actively are in the market with our rolling hedge program targeting to get certainty around our cost structure at around 70% operating rates, so that's where we are today on our current US assets and I think when what we're seeing is we have seen volatility in the short run, and we've seen the long run end of the curve actually coming down. So when you look at where the long end of the curve is, it's at, we're seeing 350 pricing or below, which is really positive for us. So, we're actively looking at what we want to do with OCI. We haven't had, we haven't taken any action on that to date. But it is trending positive to gas pricing that gives us a really good cost structure over that longer period. In the short term, what we've seen spot gas trading down, below $350 but when you look over 20, the remainder of 25 and into 26 and somewhat into 27, it's still in the $4 range and so. We're kind of, we can be a little opportunistic with the way we layer in, so we're looking at both the short term and the longer term, but we believe there's going to be opportunities to get a really good cost structure to underpin making our company stronger and more resilient with these assets.

哦，謝謝，顯然，我們非常仔細地研究了這個問題，現在我們積極地在市場上實施滾動對沖計劃，目標是確定我們的成本結構，使運營率達到 70% 左右，這就是我們目前的美國資產狀況，我認為，我們看到的是短期波動，而長期來看，曲線實際上正在下降。因此，當您查看曲線的長端時，我們看到定價為 350 或以下，這對我們來說確實是積極的。因此，我們正在積極研究如何利用 OCI。到目前為止，我們還沒有對此採取任何行動。但天然氣定價趨勢是正面的，這讓我們在較長時期內擁有了非常好的成本結構。短期內，我們看到現貨天然氣交易價格下跌，低於 350 美元，但當你看 20 美元以上、25 美元的剩餘價格、26 美元和 27 美元左右時，它仍然在 4 美元的範圍內，等等。我們在分層佈局的方式上有點機會主義，所以我們既著眼​​於短期，也著眼於長期，但我們相信，有機會獲得一個真正良好的成本結構，使我們的公司利用這些資產變得更強大、更有彈性。

Very helpful, Rich.

非常有幫助，Rich。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Your next question comes from the line of Nelson Ng with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Nelson Ng。您的線路已開通。

Great, thanks and good morning everyone. First question just relates to New Zealand. Can you just talk a bit more about the gas supply situation there because, it looks like you diverted gas into one, and I think in the past it's typically been over the summer or the northern hemisphere summer.

太好了，謝謝，大家早安。第一個問題與紐西蘭有關。您能否再多談談那裡的天然氣供應情況，因為看起來你們將天然氣轉移到了其中一個地方，而且我認為過去通常是在夏季或北半球的夏季。

Do you expect, I guess the follow on question is, do you expect the.

您是否期望，我想接下來的問題是，您是否期望。

A diversions to the power sector to ramp up and can you decide when to divert gas, or does the, Offtaker do that?

電力部門的轉移量正在增加，您能決定何時轉移天然氣嗎，還是由承購者決定？

Thanks, no, on New Zealand gas, you're right, we did, we produced about 160,000 tons, during the quarter, so we're, we produced, less than full capacity of one plant. We are selling up a small portion of gas, and that was a contract that was passed of us and we negotiated.

謝謝，不，關於紐西蘭天然氣，您說得對，我們在本季度生產了大約 160,000 噸，所以我們的產量低於一家工廠的全部產能。我們正在出售一小部分天然氣，這是我們透過談判達成的合約。

Last year, as it relates, as we move into the winter months, it's more likely that we could see a a big ask on gas, which we would, we'd be very responsive to if that, if that's the case, so it's more an ask on us rather than us selling in, gas in New Zealand, I would say where we are today just with our suppliers.

去年，隨著我們進入冬季，我們更有可能看到對天然氣的大量需求，如果是這樣的話，我們會非常積極地響應，所以這更多的是對我們的要求，而不是我們在新西蘭銷售天然氣，我想說我們今天與供應商的現狀。

Our continued operations are, at one plant are dependent on gas production in New Zealand and it's something we continue to work really closely with our gas suppliers there. So, we're in this balance of, we need the gas to continue to maintain our minimum operating rates. There's some requirements of needs for the residential power. And so we're trying to balance all of that while working with our gas suppliers on their outlook for gas supply. So it's a pretty dynamic situation and we'll be able to give you more of an update on when we get through Q2 as to how that power sector and draw on gas plays out.

我們的一家工廠的持續營運依賴於紐西蘭的天然氣生產，我們將繼續與那裡的天然氣供應商密切合作。因此，我們處於這種平衡狀態，我們需要天然氣來繼續維持我們的最低營運率。對於住宅電力的需求有一些要求。因此，我們在與天然氣供應商合作制定天然氣供應前景的同時，試圖平衡所有這些因素。因此，這是一個相當動態的情況，當我們進入第二季度時，我們將能夠為您提供更多關於電力行業和天然氣消耗的最新消息。

And if methanol prices trend lower, are you able to Push more into the power sector or like you said it's more about them asking for it.--

如果甲醇價格走低，您是否能夠加大對電力產業的投入，或者像您所說的那樣，這更多的是他們要求的。 ——

It's more about.

更多的是。

Yeah, it is more about the demand supply balances in the country and what comes to us from request. Certainly we're there and we've always been responsive to that and we'll continue to be.

是的，這更多的是關於該國的供需平衡以及我們所請求的東西。當然，我們在那裡，我們一直對此作出回應，並將繼續這樣做。

Got it. Okay. And then just, switching topics a bit on the OCI, transaction, can you just talk about, which, key approvals are needed and if any have been received yet.

知道了。好的。然後，稍微轉換一下主題，關於 OCI 交易，您能否談談需要哪些關鍵批准，以及是否已經收到任何批准。

Yeah, it, we're going through the regulatory review process in both US and Europe, and those continue to progress, and that's the those are the remaining steps to move through approval of the transaction.

是的，我們正在經歷美國和歐洲的監管審查程序，這些程序仍在繼續進展，這就是交易批准的剩餘步驟。

Okay, got it. I I'll leave it there thanks.

好的，明白了。我會把它留在那裡謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH. Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matthew Blair。您的線路已開通。

Great, thank you and good morning, Rich. I want to circle back to the Q2 guide, so the 360 to 370, it seems to imply that the discount rate is getting worse in Q2 than it was in the first quarter.

太好了，謝謝你，早安，Rich。我想回到第二季指南，因此 360 到 370 似乎意味著第二季的折扣率比第一季更糟。

Are there any structural changes that would that would explain that, or is that just a function of the geographical mix?

是否存在可以解釋這現象的結構性變化，或者這只是地理組合的作用？

Yeah, no, I think, you probably shouldn't read too much into that. I think we'll probably be on the high end of the range, so I'm not sure what where you're calculating the percentage. Again, we're really focused in in kind of what will be the realized pricing over kind of what we think about the cost or the price that our region which is it's China. We have seen, inventories getting more healthy and. Through with more supply into the market, so as we trend through Q2 we'll just continue to track and there, directionally we have seen some moderation there. So, but I wouldn't be pointing you to a big, expansion in the discount. It's more pointing to where some of the stock markets have trended in the short term.

是的，不，我認為，你可能不應該對此進行過多的解讀。我認為我們可能會處於該範圍的高端，所以我不確定您在哪裡計算百分比。再說一次，我們真正關注的是實際定價，而不是我們所在地區（即中國）的成本或價格。我們已經看到，庫存變得更加健康。隨著市場供應量的增加，隨著我們進入第二季度，我們將繼續跟踪，並且從方向上看，我們已經看到了一些緩和。所以，但我不會向您指出折扣的大幅擴大。它更指出了部分股票市場的短期趨勢。

Sounds good. And then, you mentioned improving methanol demand in the second quarter in part due to higher MTO operates. Is there any numbers you you can share on where MTO utilization is today versus the average for the first quarter?

聽起來不錯。然後，您提到第二季甲醇需求增加，部分原因是 MTO 營運增加。您能否分享一些數據，說明目前 MTO 使用率與第一季平均利用率的比較？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, it's today it's pretty similar to the first quarter. It's around 75% to 80% operating rates, and that's where we are, we have seen when there's lots of supply available in the market, which we do think is Iran ramps up and we start to see more coastal. Product available in China that, we have seen them get into the above 90% and there's again there's about $21 million tons of capacity, so a 10% change means, kind of $2 million tons of of demand there, that will all be dependent on what's available in the market and as these plants come out of their maintenance.

是的，今天的情況與第一季非常相似。營運率約為 75% 至 80%，這就是我們所處的水平，我們看到市場上有大量供應，我們確實認為這是伊朗產量增加，我們開始看到更多的沿海地區供應增加。我們看到中國的產品利用率已達到 90% 以上，產能約為 2,100 萬噸，因此 10% 的變化意味著 200 萬噸的需求，這完全取決於市場上的供應情況以及這些工廠的維護情況。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jeffrey. Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自 Jeffrey 的 Laurence Alexander。您的線路已開通。

Good morning. Could you speak to, as you were assessing kind of trough scenarios for the OCI merger.

早安.您能否談談，您正在評估 OCI 合併的低谷情景。

You know how how severe a trough you considered and what sort of liquidity metrics you focused on.

您知道您考慮的低谷有多嚴重，以及您關注的是哪種流動性指標。

And secondly, could you give an update on what you're seeing on the shipping pipeline for methanol flex fuel capacity?

其次，您能否介紹一下甲醇靈活燃料運輸管路的最新情況？

Sure, thanks, Laurence. In terms of a trash trough scenario, we sort of plan the company in the balance sheet around a $250 per metric ton price. This is the lowest we see pricing go in a 12 month period and usually would only be in a sort of an economic shock type of event like a COVID or a financial crisis where we've seen that happen.

當然，謝謝，勞倫斯。就垃圾槽情境而言，我們在資產負債表中規劃的公司價格約為每公噸 250 美元。這是我們在 12 個月內看到的最低價格，通常只會在 COVID 或金融危機等經濟衝擊事件中才會出現這種情況。

The first thing that we do in terms of planning the company is having assets that are on the low end of the cost curve and cash positive through the cycle, which we think these assets would be, and then it's also just ensuring we have access to liquidity and so our undrawn credit, line is a, is available to us and that will be actually increased to $600 million. Post deal as well, so we have natural levers in our, in our business, typically when you see lower methanol price our gas contracts respond. Some of them are pinned to methanol price. In those lower environments we always see gas in North America tends to be a lot lower. We get foreign exchange on our fixed cost structure because the US dollar tends to strengthen and currencies against it tend to be weaker, and then we also look at other things like discretionary Capex and Opex and other measures that we would take in those types of environments. So we feel that we, we've properly planned for any trough scenario. We're certainly way far away from that today and we'd have to see a lot greater impact to get to anything that resembles that.

在規劃公司方面，我們做的第一件事就是擁有成本曲線低端的資產，並且在整個週期中擁有正現金，我們認為這些資產將會如此，然後還要確保我們能夠獲得流動性，這樣我們就可以獲得未提取的信貸額度，而這筆資金實際上將增加到 6 億美元。交易完成後，我們的業務中也存在天然的槓桿，通常當你看到甲醇價格下降時，我們的天然氣合約就會做出反應。其中一些與甲醇價格有關。在那些較低的環境中，我們總是看到北美的天然氣價格往往要低得多。我們在固定成本結構中採用外匯，因為美元趨於走強，而兌美元的貨幣趨於走弱，然後我們還會考慮其他因素，例如可自由支配的資本支出和營運支出，以及我們在這種環境下會採取的其他措施。因此，我們認為我們已經為任何低谷情況做好了適當的規劃。今天我們距離這個目標還很遙遠，我們必須看到更大的影響才能達到類似的效果。

Okay great just on the methonal flex fuel.

好的，僅使用甲醇靈活燃料就很棒。

Oh, sorry, yeah, we're, I think we'll start with the ships. We still see, all of the container ships and the outlook there is 350 plus ships coming into the market over the next four or five years. By the end of this year, the demand potential for all the ships that will be on the water would be close to about $3 million tons of demand potential. Of course that will depend on their their selection of fuel. Is it, are they going to burn methanol, or they burn conventional bunker fuels. Today, gray methanol, so call it conventional methanol, is, the affordability levels today, methanol would probably be higher than than low sulfur fuel oil, probably lower than marine gas oil, so. We're not sure what economic decisions shipping companies are going to make there, but obviously we're in a lot of discussions with them today on their needs. Giving you a demand forecast is difficult because those decisions have not been made structurally, so we're not seeing long term contracts for methanol quite yet, and we're working on. On making sure that methanol is available in all the major ports through relationships with bunkering companies, but difficult to give you a demand forecasts discussions around low carbon methanol also continue and, that becomes a a bit more of a cost decision and our regulations going to push that.

哦，對不起，是的，我想我們應該從船開始。我們仍然看到，所有貨櫃船和預計未來四到五年將有 350 多艘船進入市場。到今年年底，所有下水船舶的需求潛力將接近約 300 萬噸的需求潛力。當然，這取決於他們選擇的燃料。他們會燃燒甲醇嗎，還是燃燒傳統的船燃料？如今，灰色甲醇，也就是所謂的傳統甲醇，就目前的可負擔水平而言，甲醇的價格可能高於低硫燃料油，但可能低於船用柴油。我們不確定航運公司將做出什麼樣的經濟決策，但顯然我們今天就他們的需求與他們進行了大量討論。給你一個需求預測是困難的，因為這些決定還沒有從結構上做出，所以我們還沒有看到甲醇的長期合同，我們正在努力。透過與加油公司的關係，確保所有主要港口都有甲醇供應，但很難給出需求預測，有關低碳甲醇的討論仍在繼續，這更多地成為一個成本決策，我們的法規將推動這一點。

And our customers going to have willingness to pay. We have seen some positive signs from the IMO regarding both their percentage of lower carbon fuels they want to see go into the global fuel pool as well as pet potential penalties that would be applied if ship shipping companies are non-compliant. Those are have not been implemented and there's still lots of discussions, but the IMO has taken some steps to try to push forward with that and that's something we're watching really closely.

我們的客戶也願意支付。我們從國際海事組織看到了一些積極的信號，包括他們希望看到的進入全球燃料庫的低碳燃料的比例，以及如果航運公司不遵守規定可能會受到的處罰。這些尚未實施，仍有許多討論，但國際海事組織已採取一些措施試圖推動這些措施，這是我們密切關注的事情。

And then just lastly, the US proposals to implement fees on China-made or China owned ships or fleets ordering ships from China, does that create any arbitrage opportunities for you relative to competitors?

最後，美國提議對中國製造或中國擁有的船舶或從中國訂購船舶的船隊徵收費用，這是否會為貴公司相對於競爭對手創造套利機會？

I don't think it does, being, I guess it's being a Canadian company, do we have an opportunity to.

我不認為有，作為一家加拿大公司，我們有機會嗎？

Yeah, I think maybe it's, it depends on what type of ships we're talking about. The type of ships that we're building are medium range vessels that are smaller in size, so I think this more gets into larger container ships, but we can get back to you on that, on that question.

是的，我想也許這取決於我們談論的是什麼類型的船。我們正在建造的船舶類型是體型較小的中程船舶，因此我認為這更適用於大型貨櫃船，但我們可以就這個問題回覆您。

Yeah, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Richard Sumner.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給理查德·薩姆納先生。

Thank you for your questions and interest in our company. We hope you'll join us in July when we update you on our second quarter results.

感謝您的提問和對我們公司的關注。我們希望您能在 7 月加入我們，屆時我們將向您通報第二季的業績。

This concludes today's conference call. You may not disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您不能斷開連線。