Methanex Corp (MEOH) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is John, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Methanex Corporation's fourth-quarter 2024 results conference call.

早安.我叫約翰，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Methanex Corporation 2024 年第四季業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the conference call over to the Director of Investor Relations at Methanex, Ms. Sarah Herriott. Please go ahead, Ms. Herriott.

現在，我想將電話會議轉給 Methanex 投資者關係總監 Sarah Herriott 女士。請繼續，赫里奧特女士。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth-quarter 2024 results conference call. Our 2024 fourth-quarter news release, management's discussion and analysis, and financial statements can be accessed from the Financial Reports tab of the Investor Relations page on our website at methanex.com.

大家早安。歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第四季業績電話會議。我們的 2024 年第四季新聞稿、管理層討論和分析以及財務報表可從我們網站 methanex.com 上的投資者關係頁面的財務報告標籤中存取。

I would like to remind our listeners that our comments and answers to your questions today may contain forward-looking information. This information by its nature is subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause the stated outcome to differ materially from the actual outcome. Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts or projections, which are included in the forward-looking information. Please refer to our fourth-quarter 2024 MD&A and to our 2023 annual report for more information.

我想提醒我們的聽眾，我們今天對您的問題的評論和回答可能包含前瞻性資訊。這些資訊本質上受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致所述結果與實際結果有重大差異。在得出結論或做出預測或預期時，我們應用了某些重要因素或假設，這些因素或假設包含在前瞻性資訊中。請參閱我們的 2024 年第四季 MD&A 和 2023 年年度報告以獲取更多資訊。

I would also like to caution our listeners that any projections provided today regarding Methanex's future financial performance are effective as of today's date. It is our policy not to comment on or update this guidance between quarters.

我還想提醒我們的聽眾，今天提供的有關 Methanex 未來財務業績的任何預測均自今天起有效。我們的政策是不在季度之間對該指南進行評論或更新。

For clarification, any references to revenue, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, adjusted income, or adjusted earnings per share made in today's remarks reflect our 63.1% economic interest in the Atlas facility, our 50% economic interest in the Egypt facility, and our 60% interest in Waterfront Shipping.

需要澄清的是，今天的評論中提到的任何收入、EBITDA、調整後的EBITDA、現金流、調整後收入或調整後每股收益均反映了我們在 Atlas 工廠的 63.1% 的經濟利益、我們在埃及工廠的 50% 的經濟利益以及我們在 Waterfront Shipping 的 60% 的利益。

In addition, we report our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income to exclude the mark-to-market impact on share-based compensation and the impact of certain items associated with specific identified events. These items are non-GAAP measures and ratios that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and, therefore, unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies.

此外，我們報告調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的淨收入，以排除以市價計價對股權激勵的影響以及與特定事件相關的某些項目的影響。這些項目是非 GAAP 指標和比率，沒有 GAAP 規定的任何標準化意義，因此不太可能與其他公司提出的類似指標進行比較。

We report these non-GAAP measures in this way because we believe that they are a better measure of underlying operating performance, and we encourage analysts covering the company to report their estimates in this matter.

我們以這種方式報告這些非公認會計準則指標，因為我們相信它們能夠更好地衡量潛在的經營業績，並且我們鼓勵該公司的分析師就此事報告他們的估計。

I would now like to turn the call over to Methanex's President and CEO, Mr. Rich Sumner, for his comments and a question-and-answer period.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Methanex 總裁兼執行長 Rich Sumner 先生，請他發表評論並進行問答。

Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today as we discuss our fourth-quarter 2024 results.

謝謝你，莎拉，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們討論 2024 年第四季的業績。

I'd like to start the call by thanking our global team for their ongoing dedication to safety. We achieved the best safety performance on record for the company in 2024 and in a year of meaningful changes in our operating assets, and these results are a demonstration of the team's commitment to responsible care across the group.

首先，我想感謝我們的全球團隊對安全的持續奉獻。2024年，也是公司經營資產發生重大變化的一年，我們取得了公司有史以來最佳的安全業績，這些成績證明了整個集團團隊對負責任關懷的承諾。

Now turning to the financial and operational review of the company for the fourth quarter. Our fourth-quarter average realized price of $370 per tonne and produced sales of approximately 1.5 million tonnes generated adjusted EBITDA of $224 million and adjusted net income of $1.24 per share.

現在來談談公司第四季的財務和營運審查。我們第四季的平均實現價格為每噸 370 美元，銷售量約為 150 萬噸，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.24 億美元，調整後淨收入為每股 1.24 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was higher compared to the third quarter of 2024, primarily due to a higher average realized price and higher produce sales. For the full year of 2024, we had an average realized price of $355, produced sales of just over 6 million tonnes and generated adjusted EBITDA of $764 million and adjusted net income of $252 million or $3.72 per share.

調整後的 EBITDA 與 2024 年第三季相比有所上升，主要原因是平均實現價格上漲和產品銷售增加。2024 年全年，我們的平均實現價格為 355 美元，銷售略高於 600 萬噸，調整後 EBITDA 為 7.64 億美元，調整後淨收入為 2.52 億美元或每股 3.72 美元。

Now turning to short-term methanol pricing and market dynamics. We entered the fourth quarter with very tight market conditions in the Atlantic Basin, underpinned by stable demand and low operating rates from several key advice sources with these conditions remaining through the quarter.

現在來談談短期甲醇定價和市場動態。進入第四季度，大西洋盆地的市場狀況非常緊張，受穩定的需求和來自幾個關鍵建議來源的低運營率支撐，這些情況持續整個季度。

In the Pacific Basin, we entered the fourth quarter in a more balanced market with stable production and healthy inventories from lower methanol to olefins operating rates in the third quarter. Through the fourth quarter, conditions in the Pacific tightened because of increased operating rates from MTO producers, combined with increasing supply constraints, particularly from Iran. Consequently, MTO operating rates decreased late in the fourth quarter with this trend continuing into the first quarter.

在太平洋盆地，進入第四季度，市場更加平衡，由於第三季度甲醇至烯烴的開工率較低，生產穩定，庫存充足。第四季度，由於 MTO 生產商開工率提高，加之供應限制增加（尤其是來自伊朗的供應限制），太平洋地區的情況趨緊。因此，MTO 開工率在第四季末下降，並且這種趨勢一直持續到第一季。

Overall, tight market conditions globally led to an increased methanol pricing environment in the fourth quarter and into 2025. Our global average realized price of $370 per metric tonne was $14 higher than the previous quarter.

整體而言，全球市場緊張導致第四季及 2025 年甲醇價格環境上漲。我們的全球平均實現價格為每公噸 370 美元，比上一季高 14 美元。

Methanol pricing strength continued into the first quarter of 2025 with our European quarterly price posted at EUR700 per tonne, representing a EUR130 per tonne increase from the fourth quarter. Our posted prices for North America and China increased in January and rolled in February. And in Asia Pacific, we increased posted prices in January and February.

甲醇價格強勢持續到 2025 年第一季度，我們的歐洲季度價格為每噸 700 歐元，比第四季每噸上漲 130 歐元。我們在北美和中國公佈的價格在一月上漲，二月下跌。在亞太地區，我們在一月和二月提高了公佈的價格。

Comparing methanol demand in 2024 to 2023, we estimate global methanol demand increased by approximately 3 million tonnes, which included relatively flat year-over-year demand for methanol to olefins given supply constraints in the industry.

將 2024 年的甲醇需求與 2023 年的甲醇需求進行比較，我們估計全球甲醇需求將增加約 300 萬噸，其中包括由於行業供應限制，甲醇制烯烴的需求同比相對持平。

In 2025, we expect methanol demand to grow at a similar rate to 2024, driven by demand from traditional chemical applications as well as energy applications with operating rates in methanol to olefins, again playing a critical role in balancing the market. We expect incremental supply will come from full year production of G3 and from the Malaysian Serawak plant, which we understand recently started producing methanol.

到 2025 年，我們預計甲醇需求將以與 2024 年相似的速度成長，這主要受傳統化學應用以及能源應用需求的推動，其中甲醇制烯烴的開工率再次在平衡市場方面發揮關鍵作用。我們預計增量供應將來自 G3 的全年生產以及馬來西亞沙撈越工廠，據我們了解，該工廠最近已開始生產甲醇。

Looking beyond 2025, we continue to see favorable supply and demand dynamics with traditional chemical and energy applications demand expected to outpace supply, given limited capacity additions projected in the industry.

展望 2025 年以後，我們將繼續看到有利的供需動態，鑑於預計的行業產能增加有限，傳統化學和能源應用的需求預計將超過供應。

Now turning to our operations. Methanex production in the fourth quarter was higher compared to the third quarter with higher production from Geismar, Chile, New Zealand, and Egypt. Our production was higher than our produced sales in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to an inventory build that produced methanol from these higher production levels.

現在來談談我們的營運。Methanex 第四季的產量與第三季相比有所增加，其中蓋斯瑪 (Geismar)、智利、紐西蘭和埃及的產量均有所增加。由於庫存增加，從這些較高的生產水準中生產出了甲醇，因此 2024 年第四季我們的產量高於生產銷售額。

In Geismar, production was higher during the fourth quarter with G3 operating at full rates in October and December. In mid-November, we took a proactive shutdown of G3 to inspect some of the newly commissioned equipment to ensure reliability. The plant successfully restarted and resumed full operating rates in December and has been operating at high rates since the restart.

在蓋斯瑪，第四季產量更高，G3 在 10 月和 12 月全速運轉。11月中旬，我們主動關閉了G3，以檢查一些新投入使用的設備，確保可靠性。該工廠於12月成功重啟並恢復滿載運轉，自重啟以來一直保持高負載運轉。

In Chile, I'm very happy to share that both plants have been operating at full rates and that after a brief maintenance outage in November, we produced 150,000 tonnes of methanol in December which is the highest monthly level of production we've reached in Chile since 2007.

在智利，我很高興地告訴大家，兩家工廠都已滿載運轉，並且在11月份短暫停機維護之後，我們在12月份生產了150,000噸甲醇，這是自2007年以來我們在智利達到的最高月產量。

We have gas contracts in place with Chilean and Argentina gas producers until 2030 and '27, respectively which underpin approximately 55% of the site's gas requirements year-round. We continue to expect seasonality in production but are seeing positive developments making full gas supply for a two-plant operation available for longer periods. Based on contracted gas, 2025 production is expected to be between 1.3 million and 1.4 million tonnes, which would result in the fourth consecutive annual increase in production from Chile.

我們與智利和阿根廷的天然氣生產商簽訂了分別有效期至2030年和2027年的天然氣合同，這可以滿足該基地全年約55%的天然氣需求。我們仍然預計生產將受到季節性的影響，但我們看到積極的發展，使得雙工廠的天然氣供應能夠持續更長時間。根據合約天然氣，預計2025年產量將在130萬至140萬噸之間，這將導致智利產量連續第四年增加。

In Egypt, production increased compared to the third quarter as temperatures moderated the gas balances in the country stabilized, and we operated at close to full rates based on improved gas availability. We're monitoring the gas market closely and would expect to experience some curtailments in 2025, particularly in the summer months, depending on gas supply and demand dynamics.

在埃及，由於氣溫趨於平穩，天然氣平衡趨於穩定，產量與第三季度相比有所增加，而且由於天然氣供應量改善，我們幾乎以滿載生產。我們正在密切關注天然氣市場，預計 2025 年會出現一些減產現象，尤其是在夏季，這取決於天然氣的供需動態。

In New Zealand, production in the fourth quarter was higher compared to the third quarter with the restart of our Motunui 2 plant in November. In August, operations were temporarily idled as we entered short-term commercial arrangements to provide contractual natural gas into the New Zealand electricity market until the end of October 2024.

在新西蘭，隨著 11 月 Motunui 2 工廠的重啟，第四季度的產量比第三季度有所提高。8 月份，我們達成了短期商業協議，將向紐西蘭電力市場提供合約天然氣，直至 2024 年 10 月底，因此業務暫時停頓。

Based on the current outlook from gas suppliers, we expect 500,000 to 700,000 tonnes of production from New Zealand in 2025, which will be dependent on gas availability and any on selling of gas into the electricity market to support New Zealand's energy needs.

根據目前天然氣供應商的預測，我們預計 2025 年紐西蘭的天然氣產量將達到 50 萬至 70 萬噸，這取決於天然氣供應情況以及向電力市場銷售天然氣以滿足紐西蘭的能源需求。

In 2025, we have three turnaround schedules that will impact our production in the first three quarters. Our expected equity production guidance for 2025 is approximately 7.5 million equity tonnes, which includes the impact of these turnarounds and forecast for gas feedstock availability outside of North America but excludes any incremental production from OCI assets post-acquisition closing dates. Actual production may vary by quarter based on timing of turnarounds, gas availability, unplanned outages, and unanticipated events.

2025年，我們有三個檢修計劃，這將影響我們前三個季度的生產。我們對 2025 年的預期權益產量指引約為 750 萬噸，其中包括這些轉變的影響以及對北美以外地區天然氣原料供應的預測，但不包括收購結束後 OCI 資產的任何增量產量。實際產量可能因週轉時間、天然氣供應情況、計劃外停機和意外事件而因季度而異。

Now turning to our current financial position and outlook. We ended the fourth quarter with $879 million of our share of cash and continued access to our $500 million undrawn revolving credit facility. During the fourth quarter, we repaid the $300 million bond with cash generated from operations and executed our OCI acquisition financing plan, including issuing a $600 million bond and securing a $650 million term loan A commitment from our banking partners. The completion of these arrangements gives us the financial capacity and flexibility to complete the OCI acquisition and our targeted deleveraging plan.

現在來談談我們當前的財務狀況和前景。截至第四季度，我們持有 8.79 億美元的現金，並可繼續使用 5 億美元未使用的循環信貸額度。第四季度，我們用經營活動產生的現金償還了 3 億美元債券，並執行了 OCI 收購融資計劃，包括發行 6 億美元債券，並從我們的銀行合作夥伴處獲得 6.5 億美元定期貸款 A 承諾。這些安排的完成使我們擁有了完成 OCI 收購和目標去槓桿計畫的財務能力和靈活性。

We're continuing to progress the regulatory process as planned. Looking forward to 2025, our priorities are focused on closing the OCI transaction, safely and efficiently integrating the assets, achieving the identified synergies, and reducing leverage by repaying $550 million to $600 million in debt over the next 18 months, assuming a $350 realized methanol price. Beyond this, we do not anticipate significant growth capital over the next few years and remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility.

我們正繼續按計劃推進監管進程。展望 2025 年，我們的首要任務是完成 OCI 交易，安全有效地整合資產，實現確定的協同效應，並透過在未來 18 個月內償還 5.5 億至 6 億美元的債務來降低槓桿率（假設甲醇實際價格為 350 美元）。除此之外，我們預計未來幾年資本不會大幅成長，而是繼續專注於維持強勁的資產負債表和財務彈性。

With strong free cash flow capability from our existing assets, which we expect to be strengthened by the OCI acquisition, we're positioned to execute a balanced approach that includes deleveraging and shareholder distributions, depending on future market conditions and methanol pricing.

我們現有資產擁有強大的自由現金流能力，預計透過收購 OCI 將會增強這項能力，我們能夠根據未來的市場狀況和甲醇定價，實施包括去槓桿和股東分配在內的平衡方法。

Based on our first quarter European posted price, along with our January and February posted prices in North America, China, and Asia Pacific, our January and February average realized price range is forecasted to be between approximately $395 and $405 per metric tonne. Based on this higher forecasted average realized price, coupled with our produced sales expected to normalize closer to fourth quarter production levels, we expect significant higher -- significantly higher adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2025 compared to fourth quarter.

根據我們第一季在歐洲公佈的價格以及我們在北美、中國和亞太地區一月份和二月份公佈的價格，我們預計一月份和二月份的平均實現價格區間約為每公噸 395 美元至 405 美元。基於這一較高的預測平均實現價格，再加上我們預計生產的銷售額將接近第四季度的生產水平，我們預計 2025 年第一季的調整後 EBITDA 將較第四季大幅增加。

We'd now be happy to answer questions.

我們現在很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Hamir Patel, CIBC Capital Markets.

(操作員指示) Hamir Patel，CIBC 資本市場。

Rich, are you able to give us an update on how the regulatory approvals for the OCI deal are progressing and should we still assume a close sometime in the first half?

Rich，您能否向我們介紹一下 OCI 交易的監管核准進度？

Yeah. It's -- thanks, Hamir. We're progressing things well as planned, and we're going through the process in both Europe and the US as we discussed previously. And right now, the expectation is to close in the first half. It's looking like it's going to be looking like it's more Q2 close sometime in the first half of the year, but I got Q2 close right now. So we're getting things all prepared for that and starting to plan integration as we get ready for regulatory approvals.

是的。這是—謝謝，哈米爾。我們的工作進展順利，正如我們之前討論過的，我們正在歐洲和美國進行這項進程。目前，預計將在上半年結束。看起來第二季可能會在今年上半年的某個時候結束，但我現在已經知道第二季結束了。因此，我們正在為此做好一切準備，並在等待監管部門批准的同時開始規劃整合。

Okay. Great, Rich. Thanks so much. And last question I had was, could you speak to what you're hearing about output levels from the Iranian methanol industry? It seems like from some of the trade reports that they were barely running in December. If you have any insights into how much has come back and potential for further supply disruptions there this year?

好的。太好了，Rich。非常感謝。我的最後一個問題是，您能談談您所聽到的有關伊朗甲醇產業產量水平的情況嗎？從一些貿易報告來看，他們 12 月幾乎沒有開展業務。您是否了解今年回流的數量以及進一步供應中斷的可能性？

Yeah. Well, we don't have direct insight but what we do is track a lot of the flows and import statistics into the -- mainly into China, and we've seen a significant reduction in imports into China. which is impacting inventory levels there. It would indicate that you're right. There is not a lot of production coming through in December and likely into January.

是的。嗯，我們沒有直接的了解，但我們所做的是追蹤大量的流量和進口統計數據——主要是中國，我們發現中國的進口量大幅減少。這影響了那裡的庫存水準。這表示你是對的。12 月以及 1 月的產量不會很多。

And I think the energy crisis that Iran is going through is pretty well publicized. So they're having quite a difficult time just from keeping the residential demand supplied and that's significantly impacting industry and methanol production.

我認為伊朗正在經歷的能源危機已廣為人知。因此，他們在滿足居民生活需求方面遇到了很大困難，這對工業和甲醇生產產生了嚴重影響。

So we think that, that probably leads to constrained supply particularly through the winter here, but likely as we saw last year, maybe a more prolonged impact of that through the first quarter and possibly into the second quarter, but we're going to continue to monitor it.

因此，我們認為，這可能會導致供應受限，特別是在整個冬季，但可能就像我們去年看到的那樣，這種影響可能會持續更長時間，持續到第一季甚至第二季度，但我們會繼續監測。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的喬爾傑克遜 (Joel Jackson)。

Just following up on a question, I think you just said. So you said -- I think you said that you expect sales of methanol in Q1 to be similar to production levels in Q4. Is that right?

我想您剛才已經回答過一個問題。所以您說 - 我想您說過，您預計第一季的甲醇銷售將與第四季度的生產水平相似。是嗎？

That's correct, yeah.

是的，沒錯。

Now it seemed like it would be higher in Q1 because if I take your guidance and I factor and turn around, like it seems like production should be similar in Q1 versus Q4 when you add 400,000 tonnes of inventory build in Q4. So can you tell us what would production look like in Q1 versus Q4? And then aren't you drawing down the inventory?

現在看來，第一季的產量似乎會更高，因為如果我聽從你的指導，並考慮到因素並扭轉局面，當你在第四季度增加 400,000 噸庫存時，第一季度和第四季度的產量似乎應該相似。那麼您能告訴我們第一季和第四季的產量情況如何嗎？那你不是在減少庫存嗎？

Well, we're -- I don't think we're going to be drawing. It's an inventory build of produced product because there's a bit of a change in our system. When we bring in -- our overall inventory levels are the same, but we're bringing in more produced with more production, which means a change from produced methanol to our own produced methanol, which is a good thing for us. So we've got an inventory build of produce, not an overall inventory build.

嗯，我們——我想我們不會畫畫。這是生產產品的庫存構建，因為我們的系統發生了一些變化。當我們引進時 - 我們的整體庫存水準是一樣的，但是我們引進了更多的產量，這意味著從生產甲醇轉變為我們自己生產的甲醇，這對我們來說是一件好事。因此，我們的庫存是農產品庫存，而不是整體庫存。

And so where we are in, production should be similar, where we're operating is consistent with the fourth quarter. Right now, the assets are running really well. So we would expect a similar production level at this point. But we'll have to -- our focus is making sure we're delivering and performing on the assets.

因此，我們所處的狀況下，產量應該類似，我們的營運狀況與第四季一致。目前，資產運作狀況非常好。因此我們預計目前的生產水準將類似。但我們必須——我們的重點是確保我們能夠交付並履行資產。

So we expect that kind of production level would be more kind of our run rate that we would see coming through, assuming we keep production levels at really high levels they are today. Hopefully, that answers the question.

因此，我們預計，這種生產水準將更接近我們的運行率，假設我們將生產水準保持在今天的較高水準。希望這能回答這個問題。

Sure. And then I'll follow up. So your mid-cycle methanol, $350 methanol, you talked about before what you want to do as you close the OCI deal and pay down debt before we start buybacks?

當然。然後我會跟進。那麼，您之前談到的中期甲醇，即 350 美元的甲醇，在我們開始回購之前，當您完成 OCI 交易並償還債務時，您想做什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

I'm sure you saw the sensitivity here. We're not at $350 methanol or $400. I mean, can you just give a sense of if it's $400 methanol and not $350, like how many months quicker you get through that debt repayment? Or how do you think about it? What is $400 methanol versus $350 methanol mean and how fast you could be start buybacks?

我確信您已經意識到了這裡的敏感性。我們的甲醇價格還沒有達到 350 美元或 400 美元。我的意思是，你能否給出一個概念，如果甲醇的價格是 400 美元而不是 350 美元，你能快幾個月還清債務？或者您對此有什麼看法？$400 甲醇與 350 美元甲醇相比意味著什麼，您可以多快開始回購？

Yeah. So I think if we look at where we are at Q1, we would be at this methanol price with our assets performing the way they are. We would expect free cash flow in the $150 million or more range. So if you just kind of do the math, this is pre-OCI deal with our existing asset base producing or it is, that would be a 12-month time frame. But of course, we're going to plan for a lower methanol price environment, and we've got all the financing in place that we have.

是的。因此，我認為，如果我們看看第一季的情況，我們的甲醇價格將處於這個水平，我們的資產表現也將如此。我們預計自由現金流將在 1.5 億美元或更多。所以，如果你做一下計算，這就是 OCI 交易之前與我們現有的資產基礎生產相關的情況，或者說，這將是一個 12 個月的時間框架。但當然，我們將為較低的甲醇價格環境做好準備，而且我們已經準備好了所有的融資。

And right now, I think this is right because assuming a Q2 close, we're going to be bringing more cash to the table on close and are starting incremental leverage is going to be a lot lower than when we first came out with the deal announcement. So we're already making our way on our deleveraging as we operate every day in a tight methanol market, and that's what we're going to continue to focus on.

而現在，我認為這是正確的，因為假設第二季結束，我們將在結束時投入更多現金，並且開始的增量槓桿將比我們首次發布交易公告時低很多。因此，由於我們每天都在緊張的甲醇市場中運營，因此我們已經在進行去槓桿化，這也是我們將繼續關注的重點。

Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的本‧艾薩克森 (Ben Isaacson)。

I have two questions. First one is on New Zealand. Rich, last quarter on the call, you said to start modeling one plant in New Zealand going forward, and that's certainly consistent with your guidance. But the question is, when you said that, were you thinking 500,000 to 700,000 tonnes for the year? Or is this actually a step worse than you were thinking? And the reason why I'm asking is what is the risk that we completely lose methanol production in New Zealand in two or three years?

我有兩個問題。第一個是關於紐西蘭的。Rich，上個季度在電話會議上，您說未來將開始在新西蘭建立一家工廠，這肯定與您的指導一致。但問題是，當您這麼說的時候，您想到的產量是 50 萬至 70 萬噸嗎？或者這實際上比你想像的還要糟糕？我之所以問這個問題，是因為兩三年內紐西蘭徹底失去甲醇生產的風險有多大？

Yeah. So at the time when we were gearing to one plant operation, we were looking at -- working with our gas suppliers on the future deliveries of gas. And what we were seeing was enough gas to run a one plant operation, the actual rate is going to be determined on really looking closely at production for the year. And the range we've given also does include potentially some downside of methanol production, where we may be on selling some gas into the market.

是的。因此，當我們準備營運一家工廠時，我們正在考慮與我們的天然氣供應商合作，共同解決未來的天然氣輸送問題。我們看到的天然氣產量足以維持一個工廠的運營，實際產量將根據對全年產量的密切關注來確定。我們給出的範圍也確實包括甲醇生產可能帶來的一些負面影響，我們可能會向市場上出售一些天然氣。

But Ben, you're right, we do need to see a production and investment going into the upstream in New Zealand from where we are today to continue to support the one plant operation into the future. And that's something that we're going to be working on with gas suppliers as well as with the government who we believe is looking at a lot of the policies that have not been incentivizing right things for the upstream in the country, and we're 50% of the market.

但本，你是對的，我們確實需要看到生產和投資從現在開始流入紐西蘭的上游，以繼續支持未來的一家工廠的運作。我們將與天然氣供應商以及政府就此展開合作，我們認為政府正在研究許多未能為該國上游產業提供正確誘因的政策，而我們佔了 50% 的市場份額。

So we're going to be working through that, and we'll be giving guidance as we progress. So it's hard to say beyond this year, what is it going to look like? And is there a risk? Yeah, there's risk, and it's something that we're going to be working to preserve the long-term sustainability of our supply into New Zealand.

因此，我們將努力解決這個問題，並在進展過程中提供指導。因此很難預測今年以後的情況會是如何？有風險嗎？是的，存在風險，我們將努力保持對紐西蘭的長期可持續供應。

So -- but we'll continue to give updates. And right now, we do think it's one plant at less than full rates with the potential that some gas gets diverted depending on what happens in the country. And what's happening in the country when there's -- with the energy crisis partly because the lack of upstream and the government today recognizes that. So that's something we think there is a focus on, and that's something we'll be working towards.

所以——但我們會繼續提供更新。而現在，我們確實認為，這家工廠的產能還未達到滿載運轉，而且根據該國的情況，部分天然氣可能會被轉移。當國家出現能源危機時，部分原因是缺乏上游，政府今天已經意識到了這一點。因此，我們認為這是我們關注的重點，也是我們努力的方向。

Perfect. That's helpful. And then my second question is -- and I may have missed this when the OCI deal was announced. But does the regional mix shift of sales volume post OCI mean that you'll have a higher ASP, all else equal on $350 in methanol? And if so, does that also mean you'll have a higher margin on else equal?

完美的。這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是——當 OCI 交易宣佈時我可能錯過了這一點。但是，OCI 之後銷售量的區域結構變化是否意味著您將擁有更高的 ASP，而其他所有條件都相同，甲醇價格為 350 美元？如果是這樣，這是否也意味著在其他條件相同的情況下您將獲得更高的利潤？

So just on the ASP, I think the answer is in today's pricing environment where we're seeing premiums in -- outside of China, I think the answer is yes, a lot of the markets that -- the markets that we expect to be selling to will probably be mainly Atlantic based. So yes, on the higher realized price.

因此，僅就 ASP 而言，我認為答案是在當今的定價環境中，我們看到中國以外的溢價，我認為答案是肯定的，我們預計銷售的許多市場可能主要位於大西洋地區。是的，實際價格較高。

In terms of translating into higher profits. And we would have modeled all this into our forecast of earnings, and we used everything at a $350 price. So we would expect there to be a higher uplift in ARP, how that models back to our average realized price sort of remains to be seen on how differentials work in the industry.

就轉化為更高的利潤而言。我們會將所有這些都納入我們的獲利預測模型中，並且我們將所有價格都設為 350 美元。因此，我們預計 ARP 會有更高的提升，但如何將其模型回歸到我們的平均實現價格還有待觀察，這取決於行業差異如何發揮作用。

And one of the things that you'll see this year is we've produced down our sales, and that will probably be showing up mainly in China, but we'll also be reducing down purchases in the region. So net-net, it's not a -- it wasn't a big margin driving part of our business. And so you should expect a higher uplift in price but not necessarily tracking back to margin because that wasn't where we were earning a lot of the margins in our business.

今年您會發現的一個現象就是我們的銷量下降，這可能主要體現在中國，但我們也會減少該地區的購買量。所以，淨利並不是我們業務的主要動力。因此，你應該預期價格會有更大的上漲，但不一定會回到利潤率，因為這不是我們業務中賺取大量利潤的地方。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特（Josh Spector）

This is James Cannon on for Josh. I just wanted to double-click on one of the earlier questions on gas availability in New Zealand. You said that the guidance there reflects potential for some on-selling of gas. But could you just frame for us based on your pure gas supply, what the implied production would look like?

詹姆斯‧坎農 (James Cannon) 取代喬許 (Josh)。我只是想雙擊之前關於新西蘭天然氣供應情況的一個問題。您說那裡的指導反映了一些天然氣轉售的潛力。但是，您能否根據您的純天然氣供應，為我們估算一下隱含的產量是什麼樣的呢？

I think right now on gas, we're probably in the middle of that range or somewhere between $600,000 and $700,000 without any gas on selling, and that's going to be dependent on production out of the gas fields. And then if it goes lower than that, it's likely we would be selling into the gas market.

我認為，就目前的天然氣價格而言，在沒有任何天然氣出售的情況下，我們可能處於該範圍的中間位置，或者在 60 萬至 70 萬美元之間，而這將取決於天然氣田的產量。如果價格低於這個水平，我們很可能會將其賣到天然氣市場。

I will remind that from a business perspective, we when we've given our future forecast on earnings that we do have a few sites, Trinidad and New Zealand. These are, from a volume perspective, are still in our numbers, but from an overall earnings perspective, and our run rate ears are now representing a lot smaller proportion. And so right now, we do see a shift with G3 and now the OCI acquisition, where we are seeing a lot of the value uplift coming in North America and as well as upside around Chile today.

我要提醒的是，從商業角度來看，當我們給出未來獲利預測時，我們確實有幾個站點，特立尼達和紐西蘭。從數量的角度來看，這些仍然在我們的數字中，但從整體收益的角度來看，我們的運行率現在所佔的比例要小得多。所以現在，我們確實看到了 G3 和 OCI 收購的轉變，我們看到北美和智利週邊的價值大幅提升。

Yeah. That makes sense. And then just one more on the MTO affordability. I don't know if you mentioned that earlier. Could you just remind us where that sits right now?

是的。這很有道理。然後再問一個關於 MTO 可負擔性的問題。我不知道您之前是否提到過這一點。您能提醒我們一下它現在在哪裡嗎？

Yes, today, we see ethylene and propylene prices at around $850 to $900 per tonne, and that translates into around $300, somewhere between $280, $300 MTO affordability, but that's at a C2, C3 level. They also have integrated downstream. And when you factor in the integrated downstream, it's slightly higher or slightly -- could be slightly lower depending on where they're going.

是的，今天我們看到乙烯和丙烯的價格約為每噸 850 至 900 美元，這相當於 MTO 的可負擔價格在 300 美元左右，介於 280 美元至 300 美元之間，但這是處於 C2、C3 水平。他們也進行了下游整合。當你考慮到下游的綜合因素時，這個數字可能會稍微高一點或稍微低一點，這取決於他們的去向。

So we do think that we've seen pricing above that level in China, which is indicating that markets are tight and that we're -- we've seen it pushing to above right up to their highest kind of affordability for coastal MTO producers, that $310, $320 level.

因此，我們確實認為，我們已經看到中國的價格高於該水平，這表明市場緊張，而且我們已經看到價格上漲至沿海 MTO 生產商所能承受的最高水平以上，即 310 美元至 320 美元的水平。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德（Hassan Ahmed），Alembic Global。

Question on pricing. Obviously, there's been a fair degree of buoyancy across all the regions, but there continue to be sort of variances particularly in terms of North American pricing and Asian pricing. So how should we think about the delta between those two?

關於定價的問題。顯然，所有地區的定價都相當活躍，但仍存在一定差異，特別是在北美定價和亞洲定價方面。那麼我們該如何看待這兩者之間的差異呢？

I think right now, we see there are some more and more, what we'd say on the existing supply. There's more and more -- well, there's temporal constraints on supply, and then there's more structural constraints on supply. And so we saw the Atlantic markets getting a lot firmer because of European pressure on European producers. We've also seen Venezuela operating at low rates. Trinidad ourselves reduced production in Trinidad by 1 million tonnes.

我認為現在，我們看到越來越多的關於現有供應的情況。供應方面有越來越多的時間限制，還有更多的結構性限制。因此我們看到，由於歐洲對歐洲生產商施加壓力，大西洋市場變得更加堅挺。我們也看到委內瑞拉的利率處於低點。特立尼達我們自己將特立尼達的產量減少了100萬噸。

There's a plant in Equatorial Guinea that we don't think is operating methanol today. And so you've seen that those being somewhat -- some of that is temporary, but a lot of that is structural. So we've seen imports in particularly into Europe being under pressure. And there isn't a lot of free flows that are from maybe the Middle East that might balance the market because there's pressure on the trade. Firstly, there's a lot of uncontracted volume. And secondly, the trade routes through the Red Sea is effectively no one wants to take the risk to move brother.

我們認為赤道幾內亞有一家工廠目前沒有生產甲醇。因此，你已經看到了這些變化——其中一些是暫時的，但很多是結構性的。因此，我們看到進口尤其是歐洲的進口面臨壓力。而且來自中東的自由流動可能不多，無法平衡市場，因為貿易面臨壓力。首先，有大量未簽約交易量。其次，通過紅海的貿易路線其實沒有人願意冒險搬遷兄弟。

So we do think that these forces are in place for a lease now, and we're going to have to see how balance comes back into the markets as some of these temporal things change. But there are structural forces that we think are in place that aren't going to ease in any kind of short time frame.

因此，我們確實認為這些力量現在已經發揮作用，我們將不得不觀察隨著一些暫時性因素的變化，市場如何恢復平衡。但我們認為，現有的結構性力量不會在短時間內緩解。

So we do think that these premiums that we're seeing in Atlantic is likely to be there for at least into the near to medium term here. And then I think the -- we have seen premiums in Asia Pacific outside of China as well. The Asian market is probably trading at a $20 to $30 premium above China.

因此，我們確實認為，我們在大西洋看到的這些溢價很可能至少在近期至中期持續存在。然後我認為——我們也看到了中國以外亞太地區的溢價。亞洲市場的交易價格可能比中國市場高出 20 至 30 美元。

So today, that's sort of what we've seen and that those -- that tightness in the market sort of remains. And as we look forward, demand continues to grow and the supply constraints, we'll have to see how much actually gets in the market and then also geopolitical forces could put increased pressure on some of the supply into the industry as we see what impact the new US administration is going to have in certain jurisdictions as well.

所以今天，這就是我們所看到的，市場緊張的局面仍然存在。展望未來，需求將繼續增長，供應將受到限制，我們必須看看實際上有多少產品進入市場，同時地緣政治力量也可能對行業的部分供應施加更大壓力，因為我們也看到新美國政府將在某些司法管轄區產生什麼影響。

Understood. Very helpful. And as a follow-up, I guess, like a two-part thing on the North American sort of gas situation. I mean, obviously, Henry Hub prices are up meaningfully over the last several months. And obviously, you guys are doubling down on your North American capacity with the whole OCI acquisition. So how are you guys thinking about the hedging strategy as it exists today, will there be any changes to that?

明白了。非常有幫助。作為後續報道，我想，關於北美天然氣情勢的報道可以分成兩個部分。我的意思是，顯然，亨利中心的價格在過去幾個月大幅上漲。顯然，透過收購 OCI，你們將加倍提升北美的產能。那麼，你們如何看待現有的對沖策略？

And then sort of moving slightly away from the gas side, just -- I mean, obviously, a lot of noise around Canada tariffs and the like. How are you thinking about that? And I mean, would that have any -- if at all, there were any Canadian sort of tariffs imposed, would that have any impact on your trade flows and earnings?

然後稍微遠離天然氣方面，只是——我的意思是，顯然，圍繞加拿大關稅等有很多喧囂。您覺得這個怎麼樣？我的意思是，如果加拿大徵收任何關稅的話，這會對你們的貿易流量和收入產生影響嗎？

Thanks, Hassan. So I'll start with the gas side. We have seen spikes in the kind of what I call the short end of the spot pricing, which -- we think spot pricing is heavily impacted by weather and inventory levels. And so from that perspective, we expect volatility in the short term. And we -- our hedging strategy is to be 70% hedged and have the flexibility to participate in the market in that volatility, and we do take the risk in a short term that we see spikes, but we also get the benefit when it's below the forward curve.

謝謝，哈桑。因此，我將從氣體方面開始。我們看到所謂的現貨價格短端出現了飆升，我們認為現貨價格受到天氣和庫存水準的嚴重影響。因此從這個角度來看，我們預期短期內會出現波動。我們的對沖策略是進行 70% 的對沖，並且能夠靈活地參與市場波動，我們確實會在短期內承擔高峰的風險，但當價格低於遠期曲線時，我們也會獲得收益。

When we look at the forward curve, the forward curve stayed more steady, which is an indication, even -- we have even seen it coming down a little bit, which is an indication that the supply and demand balances look healthy from a supply perspective and from a cost structure perspective for us.

當我們觀察遠期曲線時，遠期曲線保持更加穩定，這表明，我們甚至看到它略有下降，這表明從供應角度和成本結構角度來看，供需平衡看起來很健康。

So we're -- we like the North American gas market and that was clearly something we took a very close look at when we did the OCI deal. And we like the structural forces there. And so I think this new administration is also looking for to increase supply across the oil and gas industry, which is positive, and there's other things that will obviously factor in there. But we like long-term North American gas.

所以我們 - 我們喜歡北美天然氣市場，這顯然是我們在進行 OCI 交易時非常密切關注的事情。我們喜歡那裡的結構力量。因此我認為新政府也在尋求增加石油和天然氣產業的供應，這是正面的，而且顯然還有其他因素也會影響這個結果。但我們看好長期北美天然氣。

When we look at trade policy and we're -- we think about tariffs, obviously, the big ones that are being discussed is Canada, Mexico, and then China. For us, as the acute business impact is pretty marginal. We have -- do have some product flowing from Medicine Hat across the border into the US, but we're talking about a pretty small volume for what we sell in a year.

當我們審視貿易政策時，我們會考慮關稅，顯然，正在討論的大國是加拿大、墨西哥，然後是中國。對我們來說，嚴重的業務影響相當小。我們確實有一些產品從梅迪辛哈特跨境流入美國，但相對於我們一年的銷售量來說，這個數量相當小。

And we have -- if that cost is difficult to recover. We have ways to manage it within our supply chain and the flexibility to deliver to customers from a different point at potentially a pretty marginal incremental cost. So no concern from that perspective.

我們已經這樣做了——如果這些成本很難收回的話。我們有辦法在供應鏈中管理它，並且可以靈活地從不同點以潛在的相當低的增量成本向客戶交付。所以從這個角度來說，無需擔心。

I think for us, we are now going to be a very big US producer. And so we'll add an exporter out of the US, and we'll have to really carefully look at potentially retaliatory tariffs. We don't have any US product going to China right now because there's already a tariff on methanol. And -- but it's something we'll be following really closely but don't really see any acute impact to our business.

我認為對我們來說，我們現在將成為美國非常大的生產商。因此，我們將增加一個美國以外的出口商，我們必須非常仔細地研究潛在的報復性關稅。目前我們沒有任何美國產品出口到中國，因為甲醇已經徵收關稅。而且 — — 但我們會密切關注此事，但實際上並不認為這會對我們的業務產生任何嚴重影響。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Now that the OCI transaction seems to be drawing closer and likely moves ahead as fully proposed, what do you need to do to get ready in advance? I'm just trying to think about supply chains, the broader marketing logistics mechanism or team that you've got in place. I mean, what do you need to do to be ready to take on all these tonnes as the transaction draws closer?

現在，OCI 交易似乎越來越近，並可能按計劃全面推進，您需要提前做好哪些準備？我只是試著思考供應鏈、更廣泛的行銷物流機製或您所擁有的團隊。我的意思是，隨著交易的臨近，你需要做什麼來做好準備來接收所有這些噸的貨物？

Thanks, Steve. We're busy doing a lot of integration planning right now. We're obviously still going through a regulatory process. So for us, it's being ready on day one. And we've got a great team in place on our side across all the functions, looking at the integration and it's a huge priority for the company right now.

謝謝，史蒂夫。我們現在正忙於做大量的整合規劃。顯然，我們仍在經歷監管過程。所以對我們來說，第一天就要做好準備。我們在所有職能領域都擁有一支優秀的團隊，他們正在研究整合，這是公司目前的首要任務。

We're going to be -- the big thing is a safe and reliable integration and doing that as quickly as we can by doing it safely and reliably and we've got all of our teams looking at it. I don't -- for us right now, there's a big thing about can we process and operate the business on day one, and we're spending a lot of time trying to figure out, make sure that we're ready and well planned for the closing.

我們的首要任務是實現安全可靠的整合，並以安全可靠的方式盡快完成這一目標，我們所有的團隊都在關注這一點。我不知道——對我們來說，現在最重要的是我們能否在第一天處理和運營業務，我們花了很多時間來弄清楚，確保我們為結束做好了準備並做好了充分的計劃。

So right now, when you think about marketing and logistics, yeah, we understand the market and the supply chain as well. And we don't see any big complications there, but we're going to be thinking through everything really carefully as we go to execute this safely and reliably and efficiently as soon as we possibly can.

所以現在，當您考慮行銷和物流時，是的，我們也了解市場和供應鏈。我們沒有發現任何大的複雜情況，但我們會非常仔細地考慮一切，以便盡快安全、可靠、有效率地執行這項任務。

Okay. Helpful. And I just wanted to go back to the inventory question that was raised earlier by Joel. I think I understand the context around increasing your company produced product in inventory, that's end reason to me. But it was still a big number of $440,000 or whatever it was.

好的。很有幫助。我只是想回到喬爾之前提出的庫存問題。我認為我了解增加貴公司生產產品庫存的背景，這對我來說就是最終原因。但44萬美元或其他數字仍然是一個很大的數字。

How should we think about inventory levels of produced products going forward, maybe as maybe the question, just in the sense that do we expect some of that to draw down through the period in the first half of this year? How do we think about that level changing over time?

我們應該如何看待未來生產產品的庫存水平，也許這是一個問題，我們是否預計今年上半年庫存水準會下降？我們如何看待該水平隨著時間的推移而變化？

Yeah, I mean, I guess, hard to say. Overall inventory levels, we don't think when we finish the year here, our are necessarily high for our supply chain. So the mix between purchased and produced inventory, we think probably stays about the same, and it should be around 80% produced and 20% purchase. That's if we have our supply chains kind of steady. And so -- and that's where we are today. So I don't think we're going to see a big release.

是的，我想，很難說。我們認為，當我們在今年結束時，我們的整體庫存水準對於我們的供應鏈來說並不一定處於高位。因此，我們認為採購庫存和生產庫存之間的比例可能保持不變，即約 80％為生產庫存，20％為採購庫存。如果我們的供應鏈比較穩定的話。所以——這就是我們今天所處的境地。所以我不認為我們會見到重大的發布。

But when we do have a period like we went from -- we weren't operating in New Zealand. We are operating one plant in Chile. We didn't have G3 operating and Egypt was operating lower. So it's a significant build in the quarter to a more structural kind of inventory position at the end of the year, if that helps.

但是當我們確實有一段時期沒有在新西蘭開展業務時。我們在智利經營一家工廠。我們沒有 G3 運營，埃及的運營成本較低。因此，如果有幫助的話，這將是本季的重要建設，到年底將形成更具結構性的庫存狀況。

No, that's actually very helpful. And just one last one, if I may, is just around the court decision that you referenced in the release just so we all understand it. This is really around the ability for you to market the product coming off the Natgasoline plant. I think that was sort of the core of that legal case. And if you can confirm that -- maybe it's actually the question. Could you confirm that so we can understand how you'll be marking those tonnes?

不，這實際上非常有幫助。如果可以的話，我只想說最後一個問題，是關於您在新聞稿中提到的法院判決，以便我們大家都能理解。這實際上關係到您銷售天然氣工廠生產的產品的能力。我認為這就是該法律案件的核心。如果你能證實這一點——也許這實際上是一個問題。您能否確認這一點，以便我們了解您將如何標記這些噸位？

Yeah, it was -- the dispute was around the transferability of the joint venture partners rights, and that's rights for everything, operational decisions, financial decisions, and marketing decisions. And so right now, we believe that, that is now the decision is that those rights all transfer to a purchaser. And that's been -- that's the judgment of the court. And so that's exactly what we'd expect as those rights are now transferring on sales. Of course, there is an appeal process that we're not aware of what will happen there. And so something we still have to track, and we'll update you as things progress there.

是的，爭議在於合資夥伴權利的可轉讓性，即一切權利，包括營運決策、財務決策和行銷決策。因此現在，我們認為，現在的決定是將這些權利全部轉移給購買者。這就是──這是法院的判決。這正是我們所期望的，因為這些權利現在正在透過銷售轉移。當然，有一個上訴程序，我們不知道那裡會發生什麼。因此，我們仍需追蹤一些事情，並會在事情進展時向你通報。

Kevin Estok, Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的凱文·埃斯托克 (Kevin Estok)。

Just back on MTO operating rates. I know there's been some fluctuation in the back half of the year. I think Q3, maybe they're around like 65% and then around 85% in Q4. I guess where do they currently stand as of like early January (inaudible) currently? I just want to build up some assumptions here.

回到 MTO 開工率問題。我知道今年下半年出現了一些波動。我認為在第三季度，他們的比例可能在 65% 左右，而在第四季度，他們的比例可能在 85% 左右。我猜想截至 1 月初（聽不清楚）他們目前處於什麼位置？我只是想在這裡建立一些假設。

Yeah. Right now, we think that the operating rates are in the low 70s. And there's probably going to be increased pressure. There's a bit of a lag impact with Iran, as I ran operating rates, they sort of show up 30 to 45 days after the production impact. So we do expect that imports into China continue to be under pressure and MTO's a big buyer of Iranian imports.

是的。目前，我們認為營運率處於70%以下。而且壓力可能還會增加。伊朗的影響有點滯後，當我計算營運率時，它們會在生產影響發生後 30 到 45 天顯現出來。因此，我們確實預計中國的進口將繼續面臨壓力，而 MTO 是伊朗進口產品的最大買家。

So with that in the 70s right now, and it's something we're going to continue to watch really, at the end of the day, what this is, is balancing the market. It's really a supply-driven operating rate because there's just not enough supply available for them to run consistently. So in a lot of ways, the lower operating rates are indicative of a tight supply market.

因此，現在這個水平是 70 年代，我們將繼續真正關注，最終，這是為了平衡市場。這實際上是一種供應驅動的開工率，因為沒有足夠的供應來保證他們持續運作。因此，從許多方面來看，較低的開工率表明供應市場緊張。

Okay. Thank you. Appreciate it. And then just on discount rates. I guess, what are your expectations for the year or at least Q1 just given the higher overall average pricing?

好的。謝謝。非常感謝。然後只討論折扣率。我想問一下，鑑於整體平均價格較高，您對今年或至少第一季的預期是什麼？

Well, I think we probably haven't given guidance on discount rates. I do think what you will see a higher percentage of Atlantic-based sales, which should result in a higher discount rate than 2024 on average. But I'd also translates in, as we discussed earlier in the call, into a higher average realized price just given the markets selling and these are higher net back markets. So I think the higher discount is probably not the area to look at. It's probably the fact that we're realizing actually a higher price in our network.

嗯，我想我們可能還沒有給出關於折扣率的指導。我確實認為你會看到大西洋地區的銷售額佔比更高，這將導致比 2024 年平均更高的折扣率。但正如我們早些時候在電話會議中討論的那樣，考慮到市場的銷售情況，我還要將其轉化為更高的平均實現價格，而這些都是更高的淨回市場。因此我認為更高的折扣可能不是值得關注的領域。事實可能是，我們的網路價格實際上已經上漲了。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

Maybe sticking on the discount rates. As we think about the discount for 2025, is anything changing regarding how you're negotiating new methanol contracts for this year? And in particular, should we expect discount rates to generally increase as the year progresses?

也許會堅持折扣率。當我們考慮 2025 年的折扣時，今年您就新甲醇合約進行談判的方式有什麼變化嗎？具體來說，我們是否應該預期折扣率會隨著時間的推移而普遍增加？

I think what we're seeing is the Atlantic markets have been pretty constrained on supply. I think -- I don't think we -- you should expect a big deterioration in discount rates, but given the higher proportion of sales, our average discount may go up, but that's not the result of a big deterioration in discount rates. Again, I think that translates into higher pricing for the business, which is a positive.

我認為我們看到的是大西洋市場的供應相當緊張。我認為——我不認為我們——你應該預期折扣率會大幅下降，但考慮到銷售比例更高，我們的平均折扣可能會上升，但這並不是折扣率大幅下降的結果。再次，我認為這意味著企業定價會更高，這是一件正面的事情。

Sounds good. And then was there another New Zealand gas diversion benefit in the fourth quarter? And if so, what was the EBITDA impact there?

聽起來不錯。那麼第四季紐西蘭是否還有其他天然氣轉移收益？如果是的話，那麼這對 EBITDA 有何影響？

Yeah, there was. And we were diverting it up until the end of October. The number is around -- I believe it's around $30 million, but that obviously needs to be offset with that doesn't include the lost margin of not producing methanol, right? So we -- going forward, we'll be producing methanol and won't have the margin on the gas sales. And so all that needs to be factored in as we move forward.

是的，有。而我們一直將其轉移至十月底。這個數字大約是——我相信大約是 3000 萬美元，但這顯然需要抵消，還不包括不生產甲醇的利潤損失，對嗎？因此，我們—未來我們將生產甲醇，並且不會從天然氣銷售中獲得利潤。因此，我們在前進的過程中需要考慮所有這些因素。

(Operator Instructions) Nelson Ng, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示） Nelson Ng，RBC 資本市場。

Just a quick follow-up on Hassan's question on North American gas hedges. So I think prior to the OCI acquisition, you had gas hedge around 70% of North American production. And I believe you're buying the OCI plants without any gas hedges. So going forward, is that 70% the right level? And meaning you'll enter into a bunch of hedges later this year?

我只是想快速跟進哈桑關於北美天然氣對沖的問題。因此，我認為在收購 OCI 之前，您已經對北美約 70% 的天然氣產量進行了對沖。我相信您購買的 OCI 工廠沒有任何天然氣對沖。那麼展望未來，70% 是合適的水平嗎？這是否意味著您今年稍後會進行大量對沖？

Yeah. That will be -- today, we like our gas strategy, again, usually, we're about 70% hedged in the first three years and then a little less in the three to five-year period and then less again, beyond the five-year period. So -- and then we can opportunistically layer in more hedging as we get expiries as time passes and that strategy has worked well for us.

是的。那將是——今天，我們喜歡我們的天然氣策略，同樣，通常，我們在前三年的對沖量約為 70％，然後在三到五年期間對沖量會少一些，然後在五年之後再次減少。所以 — — 隨著時間的推移，隨著合約到期，我們可以適時進行更多對沖，這種策略對我們來說效果很好。

And right now, obviously, we're taking a close look at our hedging strategy as we planned for integration and closing of the OCI deal. But so we haven't layered anything in, in anticipation of that, and we'll be starting to do that as we get closer to the closing and bringing those assets into that same strategy.

而現在，顯然我們正在密切關注我們的對沖策略，因為我們正在計劃整合和完成 OCI 交易。但是，我們還沒有為此做好任何準備，我們將在接近完成時開始這樣做，並將這些資產納入同一策略。

Great. And then just one last one. Another clarification on the whole tariff situation with the US. So you mentioned that there is very limited trade between Canada and the US no exports from US to China. Does any methanol go to Mexico?

偉大的。還有最後一個。對美國整個關稅情況的又一次澄清。所以你提到加拿大和美國之間的貿易非常有限，美國沒有出口到中國。有甲醇運往墨西哥嗎？

No. Not in our system. There's very little -- there is some domestic actual production in Mexico with some demand there, but it's not a big methanol market.

不。不在我們的系統中。數量很少——墨西哥國內確實有一些甲醇產量，也有一些需求，但那裡的甲醇市場並不大。

Okay. So any tariffs would mainly be just the indirect impact of a slowdown in, I guess, domestic consumption or even global consumption, right?

好的。所以，任何關稅主要都只是國內消費甚至全球消費放緩的間接影響，對嗎？

Yeah, that's right. I think the one we watch -- just on China, 10% tariffs, that one of the -- where methanol is consumed in China is for export manufacturing. So we will look closely and if that impacts demand in China for manufacturing of exports that would be going to the United States.

是的，沒錯。我認為我們所關注的——僅就中國而言，10%的關稅，其中之一就是中國消耗甲醇用於出口製造。因此，我們將密切關注這是否會影響中國對美國製造業出口的需求。

And obviously, what is the roll-on impact, where does that manufacturing show up, and how long does that take, and the overall impact that, that may help on industry demand. But nothing acute to our business and for -- in terms of incremental costs or any risks there that we see today.

顯然，滾動影響是什麼，製造會出現在哪裡，需要多長時間，以及整體影響，這可能會對行業需求有所幫助。但對於我們的業務和增量成本或我們今天看到的任何風險而言，這並不嚴重。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Rich Sumner.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給里奇·薩姆納先生。

All right. Well, thank you for your questions and interest in our company. We hope you'll join us in April when we update you on our first quarter results.

好的。好吧，感謝您的提問和對我們公司的關注。我們希望您能在四月加入我們，屆時我們將向您報告第一季的業績。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。