Methanex Corp (MEOH) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Tina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Methanex Corporation third-quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫蒂娜，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表 Methanex 公司歡迎各位參加 2025 年第三季業績電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to the Director of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Methanex, Ms. Jessica Wood-Rupp. Please go ahead, Ms. Wood-Rupp.

現在，我謹將會議交給 Methanex 公司企業發展與投資人關係總監 Jessica Wood-Rupp 女士。請繼續，伍德-魯普女士。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2025 results conference call. Our 2025 third quarter earnings release, management's discussion and analysis, and financial statements can be accessed from the Financial Reports tab of the Investor Relations page on our website at methanex.com.

各位早安。歡迎參加我們2025年第三季業績電話會議。您可以在我們網站 methanex.com 的投資者關係頁面的「財務報告」標籤中存取我們的 2025 年第三季收益報告、管理層討論與分析以及財務報表。

I would like to remind our listeners that our comments and answers to your questions today may contain forward-looking information. This information, by its nature, is subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause the stated outcome to differ materially from the actual outcome.

我想提醒各位聽眾，我們今天對你們問題的評論和回答可能包含前瞻性資訊。由於此類資訊的性質，存在風險和不確定性，可能導致所述結果與實際結果有重大差異。

Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing the conclusions or making the forecast or projections, which are included in the forward-looking information. Please refer to our third quarter 2025 MD&A and to our 2024 annual report for more information. I would also like to caution our listeners that any projections provided today regarding Methanex's future financial performance are effective as of today's date. It is our policy not to comment on or update this guidance between quarters.

在得出結論或做出預測或展望時，應用了一些實質因素或假設，這些因素或假設包含在前瞻性資訊中。有關更多信息，請參閱我們 2025 年第三季度管理層討論與分析報告以及 2024 年年度報告。我還要提醒各位聽眾，今天對 Methanex 未來財務表現所做的任何預測都僅截至今天有效。我們的政策是，季度之間不對本指南進行評論或更新。

For clarification, any references to revenue, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, adjusted income, or adjusted earnings per share made in today's remarks reflect our 63.1% economic interest in the Atlas facility, our 50% economic interest in the Egypt facility, our 50% interest in the Natgasoline facility, and our 60% interest in Waterfront Shipping. In addition, we report our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income to exclude the mark-to-market impact on share-based compensation and the impact of certain items associated with specific identified events.

為澄清起見，今天演講中提及的任何收入、EBITDA、調整後 EBITDA、現金流、調整後收入或調整後每股收益均指我們在 Atlas 工廠 63.1% 的經濟權益、我們在埃及工廠 50% 的經濟權益、我們在 Natgasoline 工廠 50% 的權益以及我們在 Water 的權益 60% 的權益。此外，我們報告的調整後 EBITDA 和調整後淨收入不包括按市值計價對股份支付的影響以及與特定已識別事件相關的某些項目的影響。

These items are non-GAAP measures and ratios that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. We report these non-GAAP measures in this way because we believe they are a better measure of underlying operating performance, and we encourage analysts covering the company to report their estimates in this manner.

這些項目屬於非GAAP指標和比率，沒有GAAP規定的任何標準意義，因此不太可能與其他公司提供的類似指標具有可比性。我們以這種方式報告這些非GAAP指標，因為我們認為它們能更好地衡量潛在的經營業績，我們也鼓勵追蹤該公司的分析師以這種方式報告他們的預測。

I would now like to turn the call over to Methanex's President and CEO, Mr. Rich Sumner, for his comments and a question-and-answer period.

現在，我想把電話交給 Methanex 的總裁兼執行長 Rich Sumner 先生，請他發表意見並回答問題。

Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to discuss our third quarter 2025 results. Our third quarter average realized price of $345 per tonne and produced methanol sales of approximately 1.9 million tonnes generated adjusted EBITDA of $191 million and adjusted net income of $0.06 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was higher compared to the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher sales of produced products, offset by our lower average realized price.

各位早安。感謝您今天蒞臨現場，與我們共同探討我們 2025 年第三季的業績。第三季平均實現價格為每噸 345 美元，甲醇產量約 190 萬噸，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.91 億美元，調整後每股淨收入為 0.06 美元。調整後的 EBITDA 比 2025 年第二季有所提高，主要是由於生產產品的銷售額增加，但被我們較低的平均實現價格所抵消。

I'll start by providing an update on our newly acquired assets and integration activities. During the third quarter, both the fully owned Beaumont plants as well as the 50% owned Natgasoline plant operated at high rates, produced a combined 482,000 tonnes of methanol and 92,000 tonnes of ammonia. We have a structured 18-month integration plan across all functions of the business to ensure we fully realize the expected benefits of this highly strategic transaction.

首先，我將報告我們新收購的資產和整合工作的最新進展。第三季度，全資擁有的博蒙特工廠和持股 50% 的納特加索林工廠均以高負荷運轉，共生產了 482,000 噸甲醇和 92,000 噸氨。我們制定了為期 18 個月的結構化整合計劃，涵蓋公司所有職能部門，以確保我們充分實現這項極具戰略意義的交易的預期收益。

We've begun executing on our integration plan and working with our new team members at these manufacturing sites on asset and safety reviews. On the supply chain side, we've integrated the new logistics operations into our business to ensure we meet customer needs while focused on planned synergies. Given normal inventory flows, the high rates of third quarter production from these new assets will not fully flow through earnings until the fourth quarter of 2025.

我們已經開始執行整合計劃，並與這些製造基地的新團隊成員進行資產和安全審查。在供應鏈方面，我們已將新的物流營運整合到我們的業務中，以確保在專注於規劃協同效應的同時滿足客戶需求。鑑於正常的庫存流動，這些新資產在第三季的高產量要到 2025 年第四季才能完全轉化為收益。

Now turning to methanol market conditions. Global methanol demand was relatively flat in the third quarter compared to the second quarter across all downstream derivatives. Demand for methanol-to-olefins in China operated at high rates, consistent with the second quarter and increased to approximately 90% by the end of the quarter, supported by an increasing amount of import supply availability from Iran, which we estimate operated at close to 70% rates through the quarter.

現在來看看甲醇市場狀況。與第二季相比，第三季全球甲醇需求在所有下游衍生性商品方面都相對穩定。中國對甲醇制烯烴的需求保持高位運行，與第二季度一致，到季度末已增至約 90%，這得益於伊朗進口供應量的增加，我們估計伊朗在本季度的供應量接近 70%。

This increased supply from Iran, along with relatively high operating rates across the industry, led to an inventory build, particularly in coastal markets in China. Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate the methanol affordability into MTO and the marginal cost of production in China to be approximately $260 to $280 per tonne. We continue to see spot and realized methanol prices in all other major regions at premiums to these pricing levels.

伊朗供應量的增加，加上整個產業相對較高的營運率，導致庫存積壓，尤其是在中國沿海市場。展望第三季度，我們估計甲醇在中國用於生產MTO的成本約為每噸260至280美元，邊際生產成本約為每噸260至280美元。我們看到，其他所有主要地區的現貨和實際甲醇價格仍然高於這些價格水準。

We posted our fourth quarter European quarterly price at EUR 535 per tonne, representing a EUR 5 increase from the third quarter. Our North America, Asia Pacific, and China prices for November were posted at $802, $360, and $340 per tonne, respectively. We estimate that based on these posted prices, our October and November average realized price range is between $335 and $345 per tonne.

我們公佈的第四季歐洲季度價格為每噸 535 歐元，比第三季上漲了 5 歐元。11 月份，我們在北美、亞太和中國的價格分別為每噸 802 美元、360 美元和 340 美元。根據這些公佈的價格，我們估計 10 月和 11 月的平均實際價格範圍為每噸 335 至 345 美元。

Now turning to our operations. Methanex production in the third quarter was higher compared to the second quarter with the full contribution from the new assets and higher production from Geismar, Medicine Hat, and New Zealand, which all experienced planned or unplanned outages in the second quarter. In Geismar, production was higher in the third quarter after the site experienced unplanned outages late in the second quarter. All plants returned to production in early July.

現在來談談我們的營運狀況。與第二季度相比，Methanex 第三季度的產量有所增加，這得益於新資產的全面投入以及蓋斯瑪、梅迪辛哈特和新西蘭的產量增加，而這些工廠在第二季度都經歷了計劃內或計劃外的停產。蓋斯馬礦場在第二季末遭遇計畫外停產後，第三季的產量有所提高。所有工廠均於7月初恢復生產。

As previously noted, both the Beaumont and the Natgasoline facilities operated at high rates during the third quarter. In Chile, we operated the Chile I plant at full capacity throughout the quarter, marking the first time we've had one plant operating at full capacity throughout the Southern Hemisphere winter months for more than 10 years. During the quarter, the Chile IV plant successfully completed a planned turnaround and restarted at the beginning of October. We expect both plants to operate at full rates through to April 2026.

如前所述，博蒙特和納特加索林工廠在第三季均以高效率運作。在智利，我們整個季度都以滿載運作智利一號工廠，這是 10 多年來我們首次在南半球冬季月份實現一家工廠滿載運作。本季度，智利 IV 工廠成功完成了計劃內的檢修，並於 10 月初重新啟動。我們預計兩座工廠將滿載運轉至 2026 年 4 月。

In New Zealand, we had higher production in the third quarter as the plant restarted in early July after a temporary idling of the operations to redirect contracted natural gas to the New Zealand electricity market. Gas supply availability in New Zealand continues to be challenged, and we're working with our gas suppliers and the government to sustain our operations in the country.

在新西蘭，由於工廠在7月初重新啟動，第三季的產量有所提高。此前，該廠因將合約規定的天然氣轉運至紐西蘭電力市場而暫時停產。紐西蘭的天然氣供應持續面臨挑戰，我們正在與天然氣供應商和政府合作，以維持我們在該國的營運。

In Egypt, we operated at approximately 80% of capacity during the third quarter as gas availability during peak summer demand remains constrained. There has been stabilization of gas balances in the country, but some continued limitations on supply to industrial plants are expected going forward, particularly during the summer months.

在埃及，由於夏季高峰需求期間天然氣供應仍然受限，我們在第三季的產能利用率約為 80%。該國天然氣供應平衡已經趨於穩定，但預計未來工業企業的天然氣供應仍將受到一些限制，尤其是在夏季。

The plant is currently operating at full rates. Our expected production -- equity production guidance for 2025 is approximately 8 million tonnes, which is made up of 7.8 million equity tonnes of methanol and 0.2 million tonnes of ammonia. Actual production may vary by quarter based on timing of turnarounds, gas availability, unplanned outages, and unanticipated events.

該工廠目前正滿載運轉。我們預計 2025 年的權益產量指引約為 800 萬噸，其中包括 780 萬噸甲醇權益產量和 20 萬噸氨。實際產量可能因檢修時間、天然氣供應情況、計劃外停產和意外事件等因素而按季度有所不同。

Now turning to our current financial position and outlook. In late June, we closed the OCI acquisition, consistent with our financing strategy, using proceeds from the bond issued in 2024 and borrowing $550 million under the Term Loan A facility. During the third quarter, we repaid $125 million of the Term Loan A facility with our cash flow from operations and ended the third quarter in a strong cash position with $413 million on the balance sheet.

現在來談談我們目前的財務狀況和前景。6 月下旬，我們完成了對 OCI 的收購，這符合我們的融資策略，使用了 2024 年發行的債券的收益，並根據 A 類定期貸款融資安排借入了 5.5 億美元。第三季度，我們利用經營活動產生的現金流償還了 1.25 億美元的 A 類定期貸款，第三季末資產負債表上的現金餘額為 4.13 億美元，現金狀況良好。

Our priorities for the rest of 2025 are to safely and reliably operate our business and continue to execute on our integration plan. Our capital allocation priority is to direct all free cash flow to deleveraging in the near term through the repayment of the Term Loan A facility. We do not anticipate significant growth capital over the next few years and remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and ensuring we have financial flexibility.

2025 年剩餘時間裡，我們的首要任務是安全可靠地經營業務，並繼續執行我們的整合計畫。我們的資本配置優先事項是將所有自由現金流用於近期透過償還定期貸款 A 來降低槓桿率。我們預計未來幾年不會有大量成長資金，並將繼續專注於維持強勁的資產負債表，確保我們擁有財務靈活性。

Based on our fourth quarter European posted price, along with our October and November posted prices in North America, China, and Asia Pacific, our October and November average realized price is forecasted to be between $335 and $345 per tonne. Based on a slightly lower forecasted average realized price coupled with produced sales levels much closer to our run rate equity production, including the newly acquired assets, we expect meaningfully higher adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the third quarter.

根據我們第四季在歐洲公佈的價格，以及我們在北美、中國和亞太地區 10 月和 11 月公佈的價格，我們預測 10 月和 11 月的平均實際價格將在每噸 335 美元至 345 美元之間。基於略低的預測平均實現價格，以及更接近我們正常股權生產水平（包括新收購的資產）的銷售水平，我們預計 2025 年第四季的調整後 EBITDA 將比第三季顯著提高。

We'd now be happy to answer your questions.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

本‧艾薩克森，加拿大豐業銀行。

Thank you, very much and good morning, everyone. Rich, can we talk about Trinidad? You saw Nutrien closure, and I'm not asking you to comment on their issue, but I believe you're next door. And so my questions are, what's your relationship with the NEC? Are they asking you for retroactive port fees or is that a risk? And then if Nutrien is down, which it is, does that mean more gas allocated to you?

非常感謝，大家早安。Rich，我們可以聊聊特立尼達嗎？你目睹了 Nutrien 的倒閉，我不是要你對他們的問題發表評論，但我相信你就在隔壁。所以我的問題是，你與NEC是什麼關係？他們是否要求你補繳之前的連接埠費用？或者這是否有風險？如果 Nutrien 供應不足（而它確實如此），那是不是意味著會分配給你更多的燃氣？

Thanks, Ben. Yes, we have a contract with the NEC for port fees or port arrangements, that's not -- we're not in a similar situation there. As it relates to gas and gas availability, we're in a similar situation as we've been talking about in Trinidad, which is gas markets are tight. A lot of the downstream contracts come up at the end of -- most of them come up at the end of this year.

謝謝你，本。是的，我們與NEC簽訂了港口費或港口安排合同，但情況並非如此——我們在那裡的情況並不類似。就天然氣和天然氣供應而言，我們目前的情況與我們在特立尼達島討論的情況類似，即天然氣市場供應緊張。許多下游合約都在今年年底到期——大部分合約都在今年年底到期。

Ours runs until September 2026. So we're in discussions with the NGC about gas. When we look at the gas outlook, we think that in the near term anyways that tightness remains. There are activities happening in Trinidad that over the next few years could mean some slight uptick on supply there. But we don't see a meaningful change to the situation we're in, which is a one plant operation.

我們的計畫持續到2026年9月。所以我們正在與NGC討論天然氣問題。從天然氣前景來看，我們認為至少在短期內，供應緊張的情況仍將持續。特立尼達正在發生的一些事件可能會在未來幾年內導致當地供應量略有增加。但我們看不到現狀有任何實質改變，我們目前的情況仍然是單廠運作。

And right now, we're operating one plant at full gas supply. So even if there were more gas available today, certainly, we wouldn't expect that a restart of Atlas or anything like that would make sense. There just isn't enough gas to go around today for all the downstream. So our situation will be focused on the next round of discussions for the current gas supply. We don't have a turnaround for Titan for some time. So that's our main focus and we're in discussions with the NGC.

目前，我們正在滿載運作一座天然氣供應工廠。所以即使現在天然氣供應更充足，我們當然也不會認為重啟 Atlas 或其他類似項目是有意義的。如今下游地區的天然氣供應嚴重不足。因此，我們的重點將放在下一輪關於當前天然氣供應的討論上。泰坦號短期內無法恢復正常運作。所以這是我們的主要關注點，我們正在與國家地理頻道進行討論。

And if I can just do a quick follow-up. Rich, you talked about kind of recontracting some of the OCI book. Can you just talk about that? What was the existing OCI book like and why does there need to be some recontracting now?

我能再簡單跟進一下嗎？Rich，你之前提到要重新簽訂一些 OCI 書籍的合約。你能談談這個嗎？現有的 OCI 合約情況如何？為什麼現在需要重新簽約？

Yes. I think one thing to note is we did increase our sales. So you would have seen from Q2 to Q3, we increased sales by about 350,000 tonnes, which is about 1.4 million tonnes on an annualized basis. The assets are running extremely well. And so when you've got the production there, there could be some recontracting that we need to do for next year, certainly, we're in those discussions. In the near term, we'll take that into our supply chain. We'll actually flex as much as we can within our existing sales contracts.

是的。我認為需要指出的一點是，我們的銷售額確實成長了。因此，從第二季度到第三季度，我們的銷量增加了約 35 萬噸，按年計算約為 140 萬噸。這些資產運作狀況非常好。因此，當生產工作完成後，明年我們可能需要進行一些續約，當然，我們正在進行這方面的討論。短期內，我們會將其納入我們的供應鏈。我們會在現有銷售合約的框架內盡可能地彈性調整。

So we have flexibility to increase sales there. And then we'll be working if we had to do short-term contracts to the end of the year, we don't see that being significant. What you should expect though is in the fourth quarter, we will have higher sales than we did in the third quarter. And you should expect next year, the quarterly average sales to be higher than they were in the third quarter as well as we recontract for next year.

因此，我們有靈活性來增加那裡的銷售額。如果我們必須簽訂短期合約到年底，我們認為這不會造成太大影響。不過，您可以預期的是，第四季我們的銷售額將高於第三季。預計明年季度平均銷售額將高於第三季度，因為我們將與公司續簽明年的合約。

Great, thanks so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson，BMO資本市場。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I'm going to ask two, but I'll do one by one. Can you maybe give us an idea, could you quantify like if -- I mean, accounting you're able to -- if you do the Q4 accounting in Q3, what would have been the EBITDA like boost in Q3? Basically, how much is earnings hit by the accounting treatment the first month-and-a-half of Beaumont?

您好，早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。我要問兩個問題，但我會一個一個問。您能否為我們提供一個思路，例如量化一下——我的意思是，如果您能夠——如果您在第三季度進行第四季度的會計核算，那麼第三季度的 EBITDA 將會增長多少？基本上，博蒙特公司成立後的前一個半月，其收益受會計處理的影響有多大？

I think -- thanks, Joel. I think the way to think about it is that we had 1.9 million tonnes of equity production coming through sales. When we look at our production in the third quarter as well as into the fourth quarter, we now are at a point where we've got the asset base with the newly acquired assets closer to what we would say is our run rate with our new strengthened asset portfolio, which we think is really something that is going to -- we're working on is consistently demonstrating this performance.

我想——謝謝你，喬爾。我認為應該這樣理解：我們有 190 萬噸權益產量透過銷售流入市場。當我們審視第三季以及第四季的生產情況時，我們現在的資產基礎，加上新收購的資產，已經接近我們所說的新的、更強大的資產組合的正常生產率，我們認為這確實將會——我們正在努力持續地證明這種業績。

So when we think what is that run rate number, if we gave, when we introduced the OCI transaction, is about $9.5 million, a little bit more than that per annum of equity tonnes, including ammonia. So what should be coming through is about 2.4 million to 2.5 million tonnes. That's a delta of 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes versus Q3. So that's where the main earnings difference is coming from, which is a meaningful -- that's a meaningful increase in EBITDA.

所以當我們考慮運行率數字是多少時，如果我們給出，當我們引入 OCI 交易時，大約是 950 萬美元，比每年權益噸（包括氨）略多一些。因此，預計會有約 240 萬至 250 萬噸貨物運抵。與第三季相比，產量減少了 50 萬至 60 萬噸。所以，主要的獲利差異就來源於此，這是 EBITDA 的顯著成長。

And that's what we're expecting when we get into the fourth quarter is that sales of produced product is going to look more like our equity run rate. So that's why we're kind of guiding to a meaningful uplift as we move into the fourth quarter. We're not at $350 per tonne, but we're close. So it should be setting up to be a strong quarter.

我們預計，到了第四季度，產品的銷售額將更接近我們的權益運行率。所以這就是為什麼我們力爭在進入第四季時實現顯著成長的原因。雖然還沒達到每噸 350 美元，但已經很接近了。所以這應該會是一個強勁的季度。

Thanks for that. Second question, just first, there were some news this week that maybe Natgas, the plant lost some gas or it was down. Tackle that for a second. And then I know you talked about before about turnarounds, maybe being able to do turnarounds maybe a year later than usual, looking at some of the (inaudible) you have. Can you speak about that? And then I imagine Beaumont, Natgas, G3 wouldn't have to have turnarounds anytime soon. Also, (inaudible) Beaumont and Natgas probably wouldn't?

謝謝。第二個問題，首先，本周有消息稱，Natgas工廠可能漏氣或停產了。先思考一下這個問題。我知道你之前談過企業轉型，也許能夠比平常晚一年進行轉型，看看你擁有的一些（聽不清楚）情況。您能談談這方面嗎？這樣一來，我想博蒙特、納特加斯、G3 等公司近期內應該都不需要進行檢修了。還有，（聽不清楚）博蒙特和納特加斯可能不會？

Yes. First on the Natgas point. I think there may be some interpretation from gas monitoring around the operations in Natgasoline. We don't really comment on kind of daily gas reports where I think where this has been picked up. Nothing should be read into that, that there's any significant issues happening at Natgasoline based on any of that information. So probably I'll end it there on that one.

是的。首先是天然氣方面。我認為，根據Natgasoline公司營運區域周圍的氣體監測結果，或許可以得出一些解釋。我們通常不會對每日天然氣報告之類的東西發表評論，我認為這件事就是從那裡發生的。不應據此推斷 Natgasoline 公司存在任何重大問題。所以，我大概就此打住吧。

But on the turnarounds, we have guided to about $150 million in CapEx per year, and that's two to three turnarounds a year. I think that's good guidance. We're always looking at ways that we can optimize around maintenance without sacrificing safety and reliability. And that's something that our team is consistently looking at. Within the $150 million, there's a good -- there's a meaningful amount of capital for the new assets, that's something we're looking at closer. But we're going to -- we would stick with the guidance of around $150 million on average and something we're always looking to further optimize.

但就轉虧為盈而言，我們預計每年資本支出約 1.5 億美元，也就是每年兩到三個轉虧為盈項目。我認為這是很好的指導。我們一直在尋找優化維護的方法，同時又不犧牲安全性和可靠性。而這正是我們團隊一直在關注的問題。在這 1.5 億美元中，有相當一部分資金可以用於新資產，這是我們正在仔細研究的內容。但我們會堅持平均每年約 1.5 億美元的指導方針，並且我們一直在尋求進一步優化。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

Thanks very much. You ran Beaumont and Natgasoline at high rates, you expect to run them at high rates. Where is the methanol going? Are these going to North American customers or offshore customers? And if they're going to offshore customers, what kinds of customers are they? What products are they making?

非常感謝。你之前以高利率經營 Beaumont 和 Natgasoline，所以你希望它們繼續以高利率運作。甲醇都流向哪裡去了？這些產品是銷往北美客戶還是海外客戶？如果他們的目標客戶是海外客戶，那麼這些客戶屬於哪種類型？他們生產什麼產品？

Yes. I mean when we -- so when we introduced the OCI acquisition, what we had said was a large percentage of the contracted business we would expect would be in North America and Europe, and that's largely where we're selling the product. Obviously, the assets are running really well. And so there's some small, uncontracted tonnes, which then we will increase the flexibility in our existing assets, our existing customer base as well as having to place some of those tonnes.

是的。我的意思是，當我們——也就是當我們宣布收購 OCI 時，我們說過，我們預計大部分合約業務將來自北美和歐洲，而這基本上也是我們銷售產品的主要地區。顯然，這些資產運作狀況非常好。因此，還有一些小批量、未簽訂合約的貨物，我們將提高現有資產和現有客戶群的靈活性，同時也需要安排這些貨物的運輸。

That's a short-term basis. What our commercial -- global commercial team is working on now is looking at 2026 recontracting. And I think you can -- we give guidance about what our regional allocations look like on a percentage basis, and we would say those are the regional allocations to think about our global portfolio for next year.

那是短期措施。我們的全球商務團隊目前正在研究 2026 年的續約事宜。我認為你可以——我們會以百分比的形式提供區域配置方面的指導，我們認為這些區域配置是明年全球投資組合需要考慮的參考。

In terms of which applications we sell into, we sell into -- we have diversified set of customers. So you can think of our sales portfolio as almost a representation of the breakdown of global methanol markets. And that's pretty much what it will look like next year, a well-diversified sales portfolio into different derivatives with a similar global allocation that we guide to in our investor deck.

就我們銷售的應用領域而言，我們擁有多元化的客戶群。所以你可以把我們的銷售組合看成是全球甲醇市場組成的體現。明年大致就是這樣，銷售組合將多元化，涵蓋不同的衍生品，並保持類似的全球配置，正如我們在投資者簡報中所述。

Just maybe if I could try it one more time. Global methanol demand isn't really growing very much, if it's growing at all, and you've got extra production. So whose tonnes are you squeezing out?

或許我可以再試一次。全球甲醇需求其實並沒有大幅成長，甚至可能根本沒有成長，而你們卻有多餘的產能。那麼，你到底在榨取誰的財富？

Well, these tonnes were existent before we had them. So we're not squeezing out any tonnes. There is some incremental production over what we might have modeled. So we're talking about 200,000 tonnes in a 100 million tonne market, which isn't meaningful. So we're not worried about placing those tonnes. And methanol markets year-over-year, we would say, are growing -- it's growing about 2% to 3%. 2% to 3% is really being driven by China and Asia, where it represents 70% to 80% of global methanol demand.

其實，這些噸位在我們擁有它們之前就已經存在了。所以我們並沒有擠出任何噸位的產量。實際產量比我們預想的要高一些。所以，我們討論的是1億噸市場中的20萬噸，這沒什麼意義。所以我們並不擔心如何安置這些噸重的貨物。甲醇市場較去年同期呈現成長趨勢，增幅約2%至3%。這2%至3%的成長主要由中國和亞洲市場推動，這些地區的甲醇需求佔全球甲醇需求的70%至80%。

That's on the back of export manufacturing and strength in those markets as well as energy derivatives mainly in China. So the market is not growing at strong rates. The Atlantic and other markets generally flat. But we don't think that the market is in retreat and supply continues to be constrained, right?

這得益於出口製造業和這些市場的強勁表現，以及主要來自中國的能源衍生性商品市場。因此，市場成長速度並不強勁。大西洋市場和其他市場整體持平。但我們認為市場並未出現萎縮，供應也並未持續受到限制，對嗎？

So we have a constrained methanol market with -- when we look at gas being either in mature gas basins or gas being redirected into LNG. Existing supply continues to be tight. So we're not concerned about having higher operating rates. Quite frankly, it's the opposite. We've got our assets in low-cost basins and it's highly profitable to have this production in our system.

因此，我們面臨甲醇市場受限的問題——當我們審視天然氣時，要么是成熟的天然氣盆地，要么是被重新用於生產液化天然氣。現有供應依然緊張。所以我們並不擔心營運率會更高。坦白說，情況恰恰相反。我們的資產位於低成本盆地，在我們的系統中進行生產非常有利可圖。

Great, thank you so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Nelson Ng, RBC Capital Markets.

納爾遜·吳（Nelson Ng），加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Great, thanks. First question just relates to capital allocation. I think, Rich, you talked about paying down the Term Loan A gradually. So from your perspective, would the balance sheet be in the right place after you fully repay the Term Loan A and obviously have a reasonable cash buffer on -- in place in your balance sheet? Would that be -- would you be done deleveraging at that point?

太好了，謝謝。第一個問題只與資本配置有關。Rich，我想你之前說過要逐步償還A類定期貸款。那麼從你的角度來看，在你全額償還定期貸款 A 之後，並且資產負債表上顯然有合理的現金緩衝，你的資產負債表是否會處於正確的狀態？到那時，你的去槓桿化就完成了嗎？

No, we won't be done deleveraging. But we do think the focus doesn't need to be entirely to deleveraging. We are -- our main focus in the near term is paying down the initial tranche, like you said. And if you look at the Term Loan A facility balance that we have, also consider that we've got excess cash on hand. We think we've got about $350 million left to go there, which is our primary focus.

不，我們不會停止去槓桿化。但我們認為重點不必完全放在去槓桿化。正如你所說，我們近期的主要重點是償還首期貸款。如果您看我們現有的 A 類定期貸款餘額，也要考慮到我們手頭上還有多餘的現金。我們認為我們還有大約 3.5 億美元可以投入那裡，這是我們的主要關注點。

And really, our primary focus is we continuing to deliver what we're doing right now and what we've done through the third quarter and really focusing on conversion to cash for shareholders. Beyond the $350 million, we -- our debt target gets us back to our 3 times debt to EBITDA. Our target has always been 2.5 to 3 times, and we've got a debt tranche coming due -- a bond coming due in '27, which we wouldn't want to fully refinance.

實際上，我們的首要重點是繼續做好我們現在正在做的事情，以及我們在第三季所做的工作，並真正專注於為股東創造現金回報。除了 3.5 億美元之外，我們的債務目標將使我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率回到 3 倍。我們的目標一直是2.5到3倍，而且我們有一筆債務即將到期——一筆債券將於2027年到期，我們不想完全進行再融資。

Having said that, we believe we've got a really strong asset base with competitively -- stronger, more competitive asset base. And so the strength of the free cash flows is there that we can continue to deleverage and focus on the balance sheet. We don't have a significant growth capital, and there could be some room there as well for shareholder returns. But that's what we want to -- first, we want to get there and the focus on that is the $350 million that's in front of us. And it's really -- that's the primary focus today.

話雖如此，我們相信我們擁有非常強大的資產基礎，具有更強的競爭力——更強大的、更具競爭力的資產基礎。因此，自由現金流的強勁表現使我們能夠繼續去槓桿化並專注於資產負債表。我們沒有大量的成長資本，因此股東回報方面可能還有一些空間。但這就是我們想要的——首先，我們想要實現這個目標，而我們關注的重點是擺在我們面前的 3.5 億美元。而這，確實是──也是我們今天關注的重點。

My next question is just in terms of, you talked about how you've started on the 18-month integration strategy. And obviously, it's still early days. But do you -- in terms of the -- I think it's roughly $30 million of anticipated synergies that you expect to realize. Can you give a bit more color in terms of where most of those benefits will come from?

我的下一個問題是關於您剛才提到的，您已經啟動了為期 18 個月的整合策略。顯然，現在還為時過早。但是，就預期協同效應而言，我認為大約有 3000 萬美元是預期實現的。您能否詳細說明一下這些好處主要來自哪裡？

Yes. So the $30 million is primarily IT-related, insurance related, logistics, which means terminals and other optimization around logistics. So it's -- those are relatively hard synergies, and we plan to be realizing those on an 18 -- it's more like almost a year period now, but 18 month -- 12- to 18-month period. Some of those are easier to get at in the near term than others. IT will take a little longer.

是的。因此，這 3000 萬美元主要用於 IT 相關、保險相關、物流，這意味著用於碼頭和其他物流方面的最佳化。所以——這些都是相對難以實現的協同效應，我們計劃在 18 個月內實現這些協同效應——現在更像是將近一年的時間，但實際上是 18 個月——12 到 18 個月的時間。有些目標比有些目標更容易在短期內實現。還需要一些時間。

The other elements of the deal, I think, is that we're really focused on is getting above deal value results. And when we look at that, we focus on the assets. We model these assets at a certain operating rate as well as annual capital and maintenance capital. And I think today, we're achieving above those results.

我認為，這筆交易的其他要素是，我們真正關注的是獲得高於交易價值的回報。當我們審視這一點時，我們會專注於資產。我們以一定的營運率以及年度資本和維護資本對這些資產進行建模。我認為今天，我們已經取得了比這些更好的成績。

So our goal is to replicate that. And obviously, we're still early, and we're really focused on working with the teams, understanding the assets, how they operate the safe and reliable assets and be able to deliver and replicate this going forward. So that's the primary focus.

所以我們的目標是複製這種效果。顯然，我們還處於早期階段，我們真正專注於與團隊合作，了解資產，了解他們如何安全可靠地營運資產，並能夠在未來交付和複製這種模式。所以，這就是主要關注點。

Great, thanks for the color. I'll leave it there.

太好了，謝謝你提供的顏色。我就說到這兒吧。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

Hey guys, this is James Cannon on for Josh. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask on New Zealand because I think last quarter, you guided to about 400 kt out of that unit this year. It seems you're tracking decently above that, but you held the overall guide relatively stable. Is there anywhere else in the portfolio you're seeing maybe weaker-than-expected results?

大家好，我是 James Cannon，代 Josh 為您報道。謝謝您回答我的問題。我想問關於紐西蘭的問題，因為我記得上個季度你們預測該裝置今年的產量將達到 400 千噸左右。看來你的表現相當不錯，整體進度也保持得比較穩定。投資組合中還有哪些投資項目的表現低於預期？

Yes. I mean, I guess I'll kind of caution around New Zealand. Right now, we've got the asset running at 60% to 70% rates through the third quarter on the one Motunui plant. That gas balance is, we're really tight on gas. The country is tight on gas and our gas allocation is allowing us to operate at minimum operating rates today. So it's still something we're really focused on.

是的。我的意思是，我想我以後去紐西蘭會比較謹慎。目前，莫圖努伊工廠的資產在第三季的運作率為 60% 至 70%。天然氣供應平衡方面，我們非常緊張。該國天然氣供應緊張，我們目前的天然氣配額只允許我們以最低營運水準運作。所以這仍然是我們非常關注的事情。

The 400,000-tonne sort of assumes that for part of the year, we would be shut in. But at the end of the day, we're really focused on how we maintain that 400,000 tonne based on gas supply today. So we're working closely with gas suppliers. When you look at the other assets in the portfolio, everything is pretty much on the guidance. Egypt today, we're at full rates. We've come off the summer where we were at 80%, which is actually a very good result relative to the -- a lot of the -- that's usually where the demands on the grid are the highest.

40萬噸的產量似乎假設一年中的部分時間我們會被封閉起來。但歸根結底，我們真正關注的是如何根據目前的天然氣供應量維持 40 萬噸的目標。因此，我們正在與天然氣供應商密切合作。當你查看投資組合中的其他資產時，你會發現幾乎所有資產都符合指導原則。今天在埃及，我們這裡房價全漲。在夏季期間，我們的用電量達到了 80%，這實際上是一個非常好的結果，因為通常情況下，電網的需求在夏季是最高的。

So today, Egypt is probably above. We've got two plants operating in Chile. So that run rate assumes the average for the year. So we're a bit above there. And then the other assets, we're pretty close. So things are going well right now. I think we need to think about that backdrop against how our newly acquired assets are running.

所以今天，埃及的排名可能更高。我們在智利有兩家工廠正在運作。所以，這個運行率是假設全年平均。所以我們比那裡略高一些。至於其他資產，我們已經非常接近完成了。所以目前一切進展順利。我認為我們需要結合我們新收購的資產的營運情況來考慮這個背景。

And it sets up really well for us to demonstrate the strong free cash flow generation that we expect from the investments we've made, have P3 fully operating and really, I would say, the strength of the portfolio enhancement we've made with these assets. So that's our focus right now is continue to replicate that and focus on free cash flow conversion for shareholders.

這為我們展示我們預期從已進行的投資中獲得的強勁自由現金流創造了非常好的機會，使 P3 全面投入運營，並且，我認為，也充分展現了我們利用這些資產所實現的投資組合增強的實力。所以，我們目前的重點是繼續複製這種模式，並專注於為股東創造自由現金流。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

So can you give a sense for what's going on in terms of the global industry utilization rate and what you're seeing in terms of demand, in particular in Asia for DME and MTO applications? And then secondly, can you speak to how the IMO decision to defer the flex fuel mandate might affect the cadence of demand for methanol over the next couple of years?

那麼，您能否談談全球產業利用率的現狀，以及您觀察到的需求情況，特別是亞洲地區對DME和MTO應用的需求情況？其次，您能否談談國際海事組織推遲彈性燃料強制令的決定可能會如何影響未來幾年甲醇的需求節奏？

Thanks, Laurence. Yes, from industry operating rates, Q2 and Q3 period tend to be the highest. And I would say across the industry, we've operated high. And what do I mean by that is if you look -- these are round numbers, but the Atlantic is operating at 80% operating rates. The Pacific, ex-China, is operating at 75% rates, and China is operating at 70% rates. Those may not seem high.

謝謝你，勞倫斯。是的，從產業營運率來看，第二季和第三季往往是最高的。而且我認為，在整個產業中，我們的營運水準一直很高。我的意思是，如果你看一下——這些都是整數，但大西洋航線的運作率達到了 80%。太平洋地區（除中國外）的運能為 75%，中國境內的運能為 70%。這些數字看起來可能不太高。

But if you back out capacity that's permanently idled or gas feedstock that has been redirected or issues around, geopolitical issues that's constraining supply, the effective utilization is much higher than that. So we would say that we're at very high operating rates and there's not a lot of latent capacity, especially when Iran is operating at 70% rates, which is seasonally high there.

但是，如果剔除永久閒置的產能、被重新分配的天然氣原料，以及限制供應的地緣政治問題，實際利用率要高得多。因此，我們可以說，我們的產能利用率非常高，沒有太多閒置產能，尤其是在伊朗產能利用率達到 70% 的情況下，而伊朗的產能利用率在季節性上處於較高水平。

So notwithstanding that, we did see some build during the quarter in coastal markets in China. But as that built up, we've now seen MTO operating rates moving up above 90% and that meant that inventories are now moderating in the coastal markets in China. So I think everything there tells us that even when everything is working, the market actually is relatively in balance.

儘管如此，我們還是看到中國沿海市場在本季出現了一些成長。但隨著這種情況的加劇，我們現在看到按訂單生產的營運率已經超過 90%，這意味著中國沿海市場的庫存正在趨於穩定。所以我覺得，所有這些都表明，即使一切運作正常，市場實際上也相對平衡。

And then when we move into the Q4, Q1 period, supply gets restricted. And there actually isn't enough supply to meet all demand today, which is -- we would say this is a constructive market from that perspective. When you ask about MTO and DME demand, DME has been -- that demand is relatively flat.

然後到了第四季和第一季度，供應就會受到限制。實際上，目前的供應不足以滿足所有需求，從這個角度來看，我們認為這是一個建設性的市場。當你詢問MTO和DME的需求時，DME的需求一直——相對穩定。

There's no -- it does go up or down a bit between 3.5 million and 4 million tonnes based on operating rates, but it's not really a move around the demand side. MTO moves up or down based on availability in the market as well as affordability there. And we've seen MTO continuing to operate now at high rates as we move into the fourth quarter. We would expect that might come under pressure as Iran gets restricted and there's less import supply availability. So hopefully, that answers the first question.

並沒有——根據開工率，產量會在 350 萬噸到 400 萬噸之間略有上下波動，但這並不是需求方面的真正變化。MTO（以訂單生產）的價格會根據市場上的供應情況以及消費者的承受能力而上下浮動。我們看到，隨著第四季的到來，按訂單生產模式（MTO）的營運速度仍然很高。我們預計，隨著伊朗受到限制，進口供應減少，這種情況可能會面臨壓力。希望這能解答第一個問題。

On the IMO, we -- first, on the marine side, that is the big upside for methanol and a new application. Obviously, 400 ships should be in the water between -- dual fuel vessels between now and the end of the decade, represents a big demand potential. The IMO, obviously, we were watching closely what the IMO would do around the adoption of the net zero framework.

在國際海事組織（IMO）方面，我們—首先，在海事方面，這是甲醇及其新應用的巨大優勢。顯然，從現在到本十年末，應該會有 400 艘雙燃料船舶下水，這代表著巨大的需求潛力。顯然，我們一直在密切關注國際海事組織在採用淨零排放框架方面會採取什麼行動。

Really what that would have done if it were adopted and some of the guidelines that they were proposing were adopted, it would have enhanced the competitiveness of low-carbon methanol as a fuel to meet those regulations. So the deferral by -- it has been deferred by one year. It came up against meaningful political opposition. We think that one year deferral allows the IMO to line out their guidelines and spell those out more, which was a big pushback during the meeting, but the opposition is a big hurdle. So that's something we're going to closely watch.

如果這項提案和他們提出的一些指導方針得到採納，實際上會提高低碳甲醇作為燃料的競爭力，以滿足這些法規的要求。所以延期——延期了一年。它遭遇了強大的政治阻力。我們認為，推遲一年可以讓國際海事組織制定指導方針並加以更詳細的說明，這在會議期間遭到了很大的反對，但反對意見是一個很大的障礙。所以我們會密切關注此事。

The marine industry continues to support the net zero framework. There's been a lot of invested capital by shipping companies on investing incremental capital on dual fuel ships to meet low carbon regulations in the future. So something we're going to continue to watch. Our Low Carbon Solutions team will be working really closely with the marine sector on how that goes forward.

海洋產業持續支持淨零排放架構。為了滿足未來低碳排放法規的要求，航運公司已投入大量資金用於雙燃料船舶的建設。所以我們會繼續關注此事。我們的低碳解決方案團隊將與海洋產業界密切合作，共同探討如何推進這項工作。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

Thanks very much. How have you fared in buying gas forward for your new assets that you've acquired? And that gas prices have been pretty low from the time you bought it, but they've moved up. Are you hedged yet or do you have more to go? Or where do you stand?

非常感謝。您為新收購的資產購買天然氣遠期合約的情況如何？而且，從你買車的時候起，汽油價格一直很低，但現在已經上漲了。你現在已經進行對沖了嗎？還是還需要更多步驟？或者，你的立場是什麼？

Thanks for the question. The gas situation, when we acquired the assets, the OCI assets came to us largely unhedged. We already had our North American exposure. At least in the near term, we were hedged at around a 70% level on our existing book of assets. Where that puts us today is, I'll start, in the near term, we have hedged a little bit up. So we're closer to the 70% level to the end of the year across our total North American exposure. Into '26 and '27, the number gets closer to 50% to 60% hedged.

謝謝你的提問。天然氣方面，當我們收購這些資產時，其他綜合收益資產基本上都沒有進行避險。我們之前已經接觸過北美市場。至少在短期內，我們現有資產組合的避險比例約為 70%。就目前而言，我先從短期說起，我們已經做了一些對沖。因此，到年底，我們在北美地區的總投資金額已接近 70% 的目標水準。到了 2026 年和 2027 年，對沖比例接近 50% 至 60%。

We opportunistically enter the market if there's attractive pricing. Today, we wouldn't be looking to hedge at today's price. We will be seeking if the pricing drops below $3.50 as an example, we'll look to put in more. Today, we're comfortable with that open exposure and we'll opportunistically enter the market to layer more in when the pricing allows for that.

如果價格誘人，我們會伺機進入市場。今天，我們不會考慮以今天的價格來對沖。例如，如果價格降至 3.50 美元以下，我們將考慮增加投入。目前，我們對這種開放式投資感到滿意，當價格允許時，我們會伺機進入市場，逐步增持。

Interestingly, the near end of the curve isn't priced that way, but the longer end of the curve actually is priced lower, and we did some contracts below $3.50 on a nominal basis out beyond 2030 recently, not big contracts, but -- so we're always looking to seek competitively priced gas for us that's really favorable for our North American exposure.

有趣的是，曲線的近端價格並非如此，但曲線的遠端價格實際上更低，我們最近簽訂了一些名義價格低於 3.50 美元、期限超過 2030 年的合同，雖然合同金額不大，但我們一直在尋找價格具有競爭力的天然氣，這對我們在北美的業務非常有利。

So in terms of hedging near term, it might be that you wait until the spring before you really try to lift your purchases again. Is that a base case?

因此，就短期對沖而言，或許應該等到春季再真正嘗試再次增加購買量。這是基本情況嗎？

I mean it will be market determined. Of course, if we see the forward curve drop off for any reason and it's attractive, then we'll enter the market. I understand what you mean. Typically, we'll see some softening when inventories start to build so much as the gas market trades off of how inventories are trading. But we'll wait and see. And obviously, we've got a team that's reviewing these things daily and managing our exposure for us.

我的意思是，這將由市場決定。當然，如果我們看到遠期曲線因任何原因下跌，而行情有吸引力，那麼我們就會進入市場。我明白你的意思。通常情況下，當庫存開始增加時，我們會看到價格出現一些疲軟，因為汽油市場的交易很大程度上取決於庫存的交易情況。但我們拭目以待。顯然，我們有一個團隊每天都在審查這些事情，並為我們管理風險敞口。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

And with no further questions in the queue, I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rich Sumner.

由於沒有其他問題需要提問，我現在將把電話轉給里奇·薩姆納先生。

Okay. Thanks again for joining the call this morning and for your questions and interest in our company. We hope you'll join us on November 13th for our Investor Day presentations and Q&A.

好的。再次感謝您今天上午參加電話會議，感謝您提出的問題以及您對我們公司的關注。我們希望您能於11月13日參加我們的投資者日演講和問答環節。

Thank you for your questions. And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你的提問。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。