Methanex Corp (MEOH) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Aaron, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Methanex Corporation 2024 second-quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫亞倫，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 Macetex Corporation 2024 年第二季業績電話會議。（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn our call over to the Director of Investor Relations at Methanex, Ms. Sarah Herriott. Please go ahead, Ms. Herriott.

我現在想將我們的電話轉給 Metherex 投資者關係總監 Sarah Herriott 女士。請繼續，赫里奧特女士。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our second-quarter 2024 results conference call. Our 2024 second-quarter news release, management's discussion and analysis, and financial statements can be accessed from the Financial Reports tab of the Investor Relations page on our website at methanex.com.

大家早安。歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第二季業績電話會議。我們的 2024 年第二季新聞稿、管理層的討論和分析以及財務報表可以透過我們網站的「投資者關係」頁面的「財務報告」標籤取得，網址為：manex.com。

I would like to remind our listeners that our comments and answers to your questions today may contain forward-looking information. This information, by its nature, is subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause the stated outcome to differ materially from the actual outcome. Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts or projections, which are included in the forward-looking information. Please refer to our second-quarter 2024 MD&A and to our 2023 Annual Report for more information.

我想提醒我們的聽眾，我們今天對你們問題的評論和回答可能包含前瞻性資訊。此資訊本質上存在風險和不確定性，可能導致所述結果與實際結果有重大差異。在得出結論或做出預測或預測時應用了某些重大因素或假設，這些因素或假設包含在前瞻性資訊中。請參閱我們的 2024 年第二季 MD&A 和 2023 年年度報告以了解更多資訊。

I would also like to caution our listeners that any projections provided today regarding Methanex's future financial performance are effective as of today's date. It is our policy not to comment on or update this guidance between quarters. For clarification, any references to revenue, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, adjusted income or adjusted earnings per share made in today's remarks reflects our 63.1% economic interest in the Atlas facility, our 50% economic interest in the Egypt facility, and our 60% interest in Waterfront Shipping.

我還想提醒我們的聽眾，今天提供的有關 Macetex 未來財務業績的任何預測均自今天起生效。我們的政策是不在季度之間評論或更新本指南。需要澄清的是，今天的演講中提到的任何收入、EBITDA、調整後的EBITDA、現金流、調整後的收入或調整後的每股收益都反映了我們在阿特拉斯工廠中63.1% 的經濟權益、我們在埃及工廠中50% 的經濟權益以及我們在阿特拉斯工廠中的50% 經濟權益。

In addition, we report adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income to exclude the mark-to-market impact on share-based compensation and the impact of certain items associated with specific identified events. These items are non-GAAP measures and ratios that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and, therefore, unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. We report these non-GAAP measures in this way because we believe they are a better measure of underlying operating performance, and we encourage analysts covering the company to report their estimates in this manner.

此外，我們還報告了調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的淨利潤，以排除按市值計價對股權激勵的影響以及與特定已識別事件相關的某些項目的影響。這些項目是非公認會計準則衡量標準和比率，不具有公認會計準則規定的任何標準化含義，因此不太可能與其他公司提出的類似衡量標準進行比較。我們以這種方式報告這些非公認會計原則指標，因為我們相信它們是衡量基本營運績效的更好指標，我們鼓勵研究該公司的分析師以這種方式報告他們的估計。

I would now like to turn the call over to Methanex's President and CEO, Mr. Rich Sumner, for his comments and a question-and-answer period.

我現在想將電話轉給 Methanex 總裁兼執行長 Rich Sumner 先生，請他發表評論並進行問答。

Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today as we discuss our second-quarter 2024 results. Our second-quarter average realized price of $352 per tonne and produced sales of approximately 1.6 million tonnes generated adjusted EBITDA of $164 million and adjusted net income of $0.62 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was higher compared to the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to a higher average realized price.

謝謝莎拉，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們討論 2024 年第二季業績。我們第二季的平均實現價格為每噸 352 美元，產量約為 160 萬噸，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.64 億美元，調整後每股淨利潤為 0.62 美元。調整後 EBITDA 高於 2024 年第一季，主要是由於平均實現價格較高。

Our second-quarter was negatively impacted by $13 million of G3 delay costs recognized in adjusted EBITDA, which was comprised of costs associated with monthly utilities take-or-pay contracts and employee costs. Excluding these G3 costs, adjusted EBITDA would have been $177 million. The safe restart of G3 continues to be our company's top priority.

我們第二季受到調整後 EBITDA 中確認的 1,300 萬美元 G3 延遲成本的負面影響，其中包括與每月公用事業照付不議合約相關的成本和員工成本。排除這些 G3 成本，調整後的 EBITDA 將為 1.77 億美元。G3的安全重啟仍然是我們公司的首要任務。

During the quarter, the G3 team completed the repair to the autothermal reformer and implemented conditions to allow us to progress back into startup. I'm very pleased to report that, yesterday, we reached first methanol production from G3, and we expect the plant to ramp up to full rates in the coming weeks. The safety performance of our team and partners on the G3 project has been outstanding, and I would like to extend my personal thanks to the team for their continued hard work and dedication to completing this project safely. G3 significantly increases our cash flow generation capability and has one of the lowest emission intensity profiles in the industry.

本季度，G3 團隊完成了自熱重整器的修復，並落實了使我們能夠重新啟動的條件。我很高興地向大家報告，昨天，我們首次從 G3 生產甲醇，我們預計該工廠將在未來幾週內達到滿載生產。我們的團隊和合作夥伴在 G3 專案的安全表現非常出色，我個人謹向團隊表示感謝，感謝他們為安全完成專案所付出的不懈努力和奉獻精神。G3 顯著提高了我們的現金流產生能力，並且是業界排放強度最低的企業之一。

Now turning to the second-quarter methanol pricing and market dynamics, our second-quarter global average realized price of $352 per tonne was $9 higher than the previous quarter. Through the first part of the quarter, methanol markets tightened, with increased demand outpacing supply, leading to a significant global inventory drawdown and increasing methanol prices. Markets remain tight in the Atlantic Basin and rebalanced in China in June when demand slowed down with several methanol-to-olefins, or MTO, units taking maintenance or lowering operating rates. We believe operating rates from MTO producers are increasingly becoming the balance on the global market as supply struggles to keep pace with demand growth.

現在轉向第二季甲醇定價和市場動態，第二季全球平均實現價格為每噸 352 美元，比上一季高出 9 美元。本季上半年，甲醇市場趨緊，需求成長超過供應，導致全球庫存大幅下降，甲醇價格上漲。大西洋盆地市場仍然緊張，6 月中國市場重新平衡，原因是幾家甲醇制烯烴 (MTO) 裝置進行維護或開工率降低，需求放緩。我們認為，由於供應難以跟上需求成長的步伐，MTO 生產商的開工率正日益成為全球市場的平衡點。

Overall, global methanol demand was higher compared to the first quarter of 2024. Traditional chemical applications and energy-related demand grew above 3% compared to the prior quarter driven by increased economic activity globally, seasonally high construction and transportation activities, and favorable energy pricing, which continues to support methanol demand into energy applications.

整體而言，全球甲醇需求較 2024 年第一季增加。在全球經濟活動增加、季節性高建築和運輸活動以及有利的能源定價的推動下，傳統化學品應用和能源相關需求與上一季相比增長了3% 以上，這將繼續支持能源應用領域的甲醇需求。

MTO demand decreased in the quarter as plants took outages or lowered operating rates in line with methanol supply constraints and increasing methanol prices. MTO operating rates decreased from around 85% in the first quarter to operating rates between 50% and 60% through June and into July. With various improvements in methanol supply through the quarter, we've recently seen one large MTO unit restart, but three large-scale units are currently idle, representing approximately 4 million to 5 million tonnes of annual demand.

由於甲醇供應限制和甲醇價格上漲，工廠停駛或降低開工率，本季 MTO 需求下降。MTO 開工率從第一季的 85% 左右下降到 6 月和 7 月的 50% 至 60% 之間。隨著本季甲醇供應的各種改善，我們最近看到一座大型 MTO 裝置重新啟動，但三座大型裝置目前處於閒置狀態，相當於每年約 400 萬至 500 萬噸的需求。

On the supply side, we saw various planned and unplanned outages and feedstock constraints, restricting supply availability in the second quarter. This limited supply from various regions globally, and in particular methanol production from Iran, was slower to enter the market after seasonal gas restrictions. As a result, global inventory levels were under meaningful pressure, reaching 18-month low levels in China, and increasing prices drove lower operating rates from the MTO sector, which led to a more balanced market in China.

在供應方面，我們看到了各種計劃內和計劃外的停電以及原料限制，限制了第二季的供應。全球各地區的供應有限，特別是伊朗的甲醇生產，在季節性天然氣限制後進入市場的速度較慢。因此，全球庫存水準面臨較大壓力，中國達到 18 個月低位，而價格上漲導致 MTO 產業開工率下降，導致中國市場更加平衡。

Towards the end of the quarter, we've seen various improvements in methanol supply and inventories globally, although markets remain quite tight. And as I already noted, there remains considerable MTO demand available to restart. We are seeing methanol pricing around $290 per tonne in China, and we continue to see premiums above these levels in all regional markets. We estimate the marginal cost of production based on coal pricing in China to be around $270 per tonne to $280 per tonne.

到本季末，我們看到全球甲醇供應和庫存有所改善，儘管市場仍然相當緊張。正如我已經指出的，仍有大量 MTO 需求可供重新啟動。我們看到中國的甲醇定價約為每噸 290 美元，並且我們繼續看到所有區域市場的溢價都高於該水平。根據中國煤炭定價，我們估計邊際生產成本約為每噸 270 美元至 280 美元。

Looking ahead to the third quarter, we expect to see continued tight methanol markets. We're seeing healthy demand growth across all traditional and energy-related downstream sectors, with MTO operating rates influenced by the availability of supply. We anticipate this increasing demand will be met by increased operating rates in the industry as well as new supply from G3, which will be partially offset by our supply reduction in Trinidad in September when we shut down Atlas and restart Titan. Additionally, the 1.8 million tonne plant in Malaysia has announced it will be starting in 2024. As always, we continue to monitor the macroeconomic environment and its impact on global methanol demand.

展望第三季度，我們預期甲醇市場將持續緊張。我們看到所有傳統和能源相關下游產業的需求都在健康成長，MTO 開工率受到供應情況的影響。我們預計這種不斷增長的需求將透過行業開工率的提高以及 G3 的新供應來滿足，這將被我們 9 月關閉 Atlas 並重啟 Titan 時在特立尼達的供應減少所部分抵消。此外，馬來西亞的 180 萬噸工廠已宣布將於 2024 年啟動。我們一如既往地持續關注宏觀經濟環境及其對全球甲醇需求的影響。

Now turning to our production, Methanex production in the second quarter was lower compared to the first quarter due to gas constraints in Chile, Egypt, and New Zealand. In Chile, we're currently in the period of lower gas supplies available from Argentina, so we're operating one plant at less than full capacity. We continue to make progress on gas availability from Chile and Argentina. And based on production year-to-date, a successful turnaround at Chile IV that will improve efficiency on restart, and progress we've made securing gas from Argentina for the non-winter period this year, we expect 2024 production will be slightly above the high end of our guidance of 1.2 million tonnes.

現在轉向我們的生產，由於智利、埃及和紐西蘭的天然氣限制，第二季的甲烷產量低於第一季。在智利，我們目前正處於阿根廷天然氣供應量較低的時期，因此我們正在以低於滿載的狀態運作一座工廠。我們在智利和阿根廷的天然氣供應方面繼續取得進展。根據今年迄今的產量、智利 IV 號核電廠的成功扭虧為盈將提高重啟時的效率，以及我們在今年非冬季期間從阿根廷獲取天然氣方面取得的進展，我們預計 2024 年的產量將略高於我們指導的上限為120 萬噸。

In Egypt, the plant produced at high rates after the syn gas compressor maintenance completed in mid-February. In early June, the plant was temporarily idled when significantly increased seasonal demand for power generation due to elevated temperatures in the country led to various measures by the government to manage gas balances, including curtailments to industrial plants. The plant restarted at reduced operating rates shortly thereafter and has operated at fluctuating rates based on gas availability, with current operating rates at approximately 80%. We've seen some stabilization of gas balances in the country, but we expect to see some continued limitations on supply as we progress through the third quarter.

在埃及，合成氣壓縮機維修工作於 2 月中旬完成後，該廠的生產效率很高。6月初，由於該國氣溫升高，季節性發電需求顯著增加，導致政府採取各種措施來管理天然氣平衡，包括對工業工廠的削減，該工廠暫時閒置。此後不久，該工廠以降低的開工率重新啟動，並根據天然氣供應以波動的開工率運行，目前的開工率約為 80%。我們已經看到該國天然氣平衡穩定，但我們預計隨著第三季的進展，供應將繼續受到限制。

In New Zealand, we operated one plant through the second quarter due to both lower-than-expected gas deliveries from upstream suppliers as well as from the redirection of some of our contractual gas for use in the broader energy sector. The country's overall energy balances are currently very tight, with demand seasonally high during the Southern Hemisphere winter combined with low hydro levels and relatively lower gas supply in 2024 compared with previous years.

在新西蘭，我們在第二季度運營了一家工廠，原因是上游供應商的天然氣交付量低於預期，以及我們的一些合約天然氣被重新用於更廣泛的能源領域。目前，該國的整體能源平衡非常緊張，南半球冬季的需求季節性較高，加上水力水平較低，2024 年天然氣供應量與往年相比相對較低。

As a result, we believe some of our contractual gas has been redirected to the electricity and other domestic energy markets. We're in continuing discussions with our gas suppliers to ensure our contractual entitlements are being respected as well as engaging with our gas suppliers and government agencies and supporting efforts to improve energy balances in the country. Based on our production year to date and current gas deliveries, we expect 2024 production will be below the low end of our previous guidance of 1 million tonnes.

因此，我們相信我們的一些合約天然氣已被重新定向到電力和其他國內能源市場。我們正在繼續與我們的天然氣供應商進行討論，以確保我們的合約權利得到尊重，並與我們的天然氣供應商和政府機構合作，並支持改善該國能源平衡的努力。根據我們今年迄今的產量和目前的天然氣交付量，我們預計 2024 年的產量將低於我們先前指導的 100 萬噸的下限。

Now turning to our current financial position and outlook, we ended the first quarter with approximately $390 million of cash. With the G3 plant now in the process of start-up, the project is now complete. The total final capital cost is slightly less than $1.3 billion, excluding fixed costs related to the delay, and we do not currently have any further growth capital commitments. Our primary focus for capital for the remainder of 2024 is to repay rather than refinance the $300 million bond due in December.

現在轉向我們當前的財務狀況和前景，第一季結束時我們擁有約 3.9 億美元的現金。隨著 G3 工廠現已啟動，該項目現已完成。最終總資本成本略低於 13 億美元，不包括與延遲相關的固定成本，而且我們目前沒有任何進一步的成長資本承諾。我們在 2024 年剩餘時間內的資本主要重點是償還 12 月到期的 3 億美元債券，而不是進行再融資。

Turning to the third quarter, our European quarterly price was posted at EUR535 per metric tonne, a EUR10 per tonne increase. Our North America, Asia-Pacific, and China prices for August were posted at $695, $400, and $380 per tonne, respectively. We estimate that based on these posted prices, our July and August average realized price range is between approximately $350 and $360 per metric tonne. We expect adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter will be lower than the second quarter due primarily to lower produced sales from Chile and New Zealand and G3's initial inventory built post startup. We expect sales of produced product and earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024 to be more representative of the run rate of our company with G3 at full production.

談到第三季度，我們的歐洲季度價格為每噸 535 歐元，每噸上漲 10 歐元。我們的 8 月北美、亞太和中國價格分別為每噸 695 美元、400 美元和 380 美元。我們估計，根據這些公佈的價格，我們 7 月和 8 月的平均實現價格範圍約為每噸 350 美元至 360 美元。我們預計第三季調整後的 EBITDA 將低於第二季度，這主要是由於智利和紐西蘭的產量下降以及 G3 啟動後建立的初始庫存所致。我們預計 2024 年第四季生產的產品銷售額和收益將更能代表我們公司 G3 滿載生產的運作率。

We'd now be happy to answer questions.

我們現在很樂意回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

（操作員指示）Ben Isaacson，豐業銀行。

Two questions for me. First one is on New Zealand. New Zealand seems to be disappointing on a fairly consistent basis. Does it make sense to indefinitely idle one of the two Motunui plants? I mean, there are several benefits for this: the risk profile of your portfolio of assets improves, you have reduced variability of free cash flow which may result in a higher multiple, you take out a little bit of capacity from the market. Can you just comment on that?

有兩個問題問我。第一個是在新西蘭。紐西蘭似乎一直令人失望。無限期閒置兩家莫圖努伊工廠之一是否有意義？我的意思是，這樣做有幾個好處：你的資產組合的風險狀況得到改善，你減少了自由現金流的可變性，這可能會導致更高的市盈率，你從市場中拿出了一點容量。你能對此發表評論嗎？

Thanks, Ben. Yeah. So right now, we're working through a lot of, I'd say, two big issues right now. One is, as you say, I think the gas from the upstream, the investments that are being made in existing fields, both new wells as well as investing to enhance performance of existing wells, I think we've seen gas deliveries lower than expectations. I think we also are working through the short-term dynamics in the industry where we believe some of our gas that would be coming to us may not be. So that's something we're also working through.

謝謝，本。是的。所以現在，我們正在解決很多，我想說，現在有兩個大問題。一是，正如你所說，我認為來自上游的天然氣，在現有油田進行的投資，包括新井以及為提高現有油井性能而進行的投資，我認為我們已經看到天然氣輸送量低於預期。我認為我們也在研究該行業的短期動態，我們認為我們可能不會收到一些天然氣。這也是我們正在努力解決的問題。

But certainly, right now, I think you should be thinking about, in the foreseeable months here, a one plant operation. And over the next few months, we'll be assessing what our views are for the rest of the year and considering how we should be operating those assets. So I think there'll be more to come as we assess the rest of the year here.

但當然，現在，我認為您應該考慮在可預見的幾個月內進行單一工廠運作。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將評估我們對今年剩餘時間的看法，並考慮我們應該如何運作這些資產。因此，我認為當我們評估今年剩餘時間時，還會有更多的事情發生。

And my follow-up question is on the Entropy deal, which is really quite interesting, but it's also a little bit scary because there's the potential for others to do this as well. So can you run through what are the constraints that's preventing everyone else from kind of copying what you've done and adding another 5% to 10% of supply? That would be helpful. And actually, if you could actually maybe give a number in terms of how much capacity is there that could also do this?

我的後續問題是關於熵交易，這確實非常有趣，但也有點可怕，因為其他人也有可能這樣做。那麼，您能否了解哪些限制因素阻止其他人複製您所做的事情並增加另外 5% 到 10% 的供應量？那會有幫助的。實際上，如果您實際上可以給出一個數字，即有多少容量也可以做到這一點？

Maybe I'll just give a bit of background on that project. I think first and foremost, we're happy to be working with Entropy, which is a technology provider who already has this technology in place in gas processing plant in Alberta with sequestration. I think when you think about the framework you need to make this work, you have to think about jurisdictions that, one, are going to have a regulatory and supportive regulatory framework. We also have to have sequestration available. I wouldn't say it's just easy to replicate. But we're excited to be exploring this opportunity in the pre-FEED stage here.

也許我會簡單介紹一下該專案的背景。我認為首先也是最重要的是，我們很高興與 Entropy 合作，Entropy 是一家技術供應商，已經在艾伯塔省的天然氣加工廠採用了這項技術並進行封存。我認為，當你考慮使這項工作發揮作用所需的框架時，你必須考慮司法管轄區，其一，將擁有監管和支持性監管框架。我們還必須有可用的隔離措施。我不會說它很容易複製。但我們很高興能夠在預 FEED 階段探索這個機會。

Just to give you a sense, it will capture about 400 metric tonnes of CO2 per day. About two-thirds of that would be used in our production and the remaining third would be sequestered in underground caverns close to our plant. That's all being worked on, the infrastructure, on making this commercial. And so we're excited to do it. I think this debottlenecking will add, like we said, around 50,000 tonnes of low-carbon methanol. So yeah, we'll work through everything in this pre-FEED stage and trying to get to a point of decision-making sometime in middle of 2025.

僅供您參考，它每天可捕獲約 400 公噸二氧化碳。其中大約三分之二將用於我們的生產，其餘三分之一將隔離在我們工廠附近的地下洞穴中。為了製作這個廣告，所有工作都在進行，基礎建設。所以我們很高興能做到這一點。我認為，正如我們所說，這一消除瓶頸將增加約 50,000 噸低碳甲醇。所以，是的，我們將在 FEED 階段完成所有工作，並努力在 2025 年中期的某個時候做出決策。

Mike Leithead, Barclays Capital.

麥克·萊特黑德，巴克萊資本。

First question, just on G3, congrats on successfully starting that up. What is your current expectation for when that should be sort of fully running, fully utilized, fully flowing then through the P&L and you guys are getting commensurate earnings? And then if we just kind of use where we are roughly today in terms of methanol and gas, what's your sort of latest best estimate of the annualized EBITDA we should expect from this plant?

第一個問題，就在G3上，恭喜你成功啟動了。您目前的期望是什麼，當它應該完全運作、充分利用、完全流過損益表並且您獲得相稱的收益時？然後，如果我們只是使用目前的甲醇和天然氣，那麼您對該工廠的年化 EBITDA 的最新最佳估計是多少？

So I'll start with the ramp-up period. We expect -- as we disclosed, we'll be ramping up to full rates in the coming weeks. As of today, the plant is operating at 70% operating rates, which is how we start up a plant and then we steadily increase over time. There could be points in time where you're testing all the different elements of the plant, and you may take it down for a period to bring it back up. But as of right now, we're at 70% operating rates, and we'll be there for a period to steadily increase in the coming weeks here. So the ramp-up is relatively -- we plan it to be relatively quick.

所以我將從準備期開始。我們預計 - 正如我們所披露的，我們將在未來幾週內提高到全額費率。截至今天，該工廠的開工率達到 70%，這就是我們開設工廠的方式，然後隨著時間的推移穩步提高。您可能會在某些時間點測試工廠的所有不同元素，並且可能會將其關閉一段時間以使其恢復正常。但截至目前，我們的開工率為 70%，並且在未來幾週內我們將在一段時間內穩步提高。因此，成長是相對的——我們計劃相對較快。

In terms of how it will actually impact earnings, I think it's safe to say we don't expect a lot of G3 coming through in the third quarter. But we would expect that to be fairly sometime around the end of this quarter and the beginning of next quarter. So inventory flows are not all that easy to track through our system. But I would say it's -- we've guided that 2020, the fourth quarter should look something like a run rate with G3.

就其對收益的實際影響而言，我認為可以肯定地說，我們預計第三季不會有很多 G3 業績。但我們預計這將在本季末和下季初左右的某個時間進行。因此，透過我們的系統追蹤庫存流動並不那麼容易。但我想說的是——我們已經指導 2020 年第四季應該看起來像 G3 的運行率。

In terms of the run rate EBITDA from G3, we've guided that at $350 a tonne, which we think we're slightly above that, that it generates around $200 million to $250 million in EBITDA per year depending on gas between $3 and $4 in MMBtu. So hopefully, that answers your questions there.

就 G3 的 EBITDA 運行率而言，我們預計每噸 350 美元（我們認為略高於此水平），每年可產生約 2 億至 2.5 億美元的 EBITDA，具體取決於 3 至 4 美元之間的天然氣單位：MMBtu。希望這能回答您的問題。

Yeah. That's super helpful. And then just a couple of quick follow-ups on the Entropy announcement. First, is that correct in hearing that if everything goes to plan, you should expect to make FID by mid-2025? Two, can you just speak to how dependent this project going forward is on receiving government funding? And then just briefly, is this sort of a one-off opportunity just because of the plan and the location, or if this goes well, this is something you could seek to replicate at some of your other plants as well?

是的。這非常有幫助。然後是對 Entropy 公告的一些快速跟進。首先，如果一切按計劃進行，您應該期望在 2025 年中期之前做出最終投資決定，這是正確的嗎？第二，您能談談這個計畫的進展對政府資助的依賴程度嗎？然後簡單地說，這種一次性機會是否只是因為計劃和位置，或者如果進展順利，您也可以尋求在其他一些工廠複製這種機會？

Yeah. So I'll start with start with the initial phase and the timelines here. So this is actually -- this project is part of a two-step phase project. The first phase is a unit that would capture 400 metric tonnes per day. About two-thirds of that would be used in our production and about a third would be sequestered underground. So when you think about value, what we will be paying, we'll be paying for that CO2 value in methanol production for two-thirds of it, and another third will be -- will need to get carbon credits for sequestering CO2. And there's obviously a regime of carbon taxing and carbon credits in Canada that will support this project.

是的。因此，我將從初始階段和時間表開始。所以這實際上是——這個專案是一個兩步驟階段專案的一部分。第一階段的裝置每天捕獲 400 公噸。其中大約三分之二將用於我們的生產，大約三分之一將被封存在地下。因此，當你考慮價值時，我們將支付什麼，我們將支付其中三分之二的甲醇生產中的二氧化碳價值，另外三分之一將需要獲得封存二氧化碳的碳信用額。加拿大顯然有碳稅和碳信用制度來支持這個計畫。

In addition to that, there's other incentive programs provincially and federally that this will look to access, and we think that we will be eligible for. All of those things we'll be looking at through the pre-FEED stage. The Phase 2 of the project is actually to really scale this such that you would triple the size of it. And you would capture all of our Scope 1 emissions and sequester effectively all of the CO2 from the Scope 1 of the plant. That will take more work, more infrastructure that would be required, and a lot more certainty around the carbon pricing framework that would support that second-phase investment. So hopefully, that helps answer your question.

除此之外，我們還將尋求其他省級和聯邦級激勵計劃，我們認為我們將有資格獲得。所有這些事情我們都會在預回饋階段進行研究。該項目的第二階段實際上是要真正擴展它，使其大小增加兩倍。您將捕捉我們所有範圍 1 排放量，並有效封存工廠範圍 1 中的所有二氧化碳。這將需要更多的工作、更多的基礎設施以及支持第二階段投資的碳定價框架的更多確定性。希望這有助於回答您的問題。

Josh Spector, UBS.

喬許‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

This is James Cannon on for Josh. I just wanted to poke on what's going on with the discount rate. It seems like while it's crept up over time this year, it's been a lot higher so far. I think based on your comments on third quarter to-date, it seems like we're relatively stable at the last quarter's levels. But kind of looking beyond that, how should we think through the rest of the year and into next?

我是詹姆斯·坎農 (James Cannon) 替約什 (Josh) 發言。我只是想了解一下折扣率的情況。看起來雖然今年它隨著時間的推移而緩慢上升，但到目前為止已經高了很多。我認為根據您迄今為止對第三季的評論，我們似乎在上個季度的水平上相對穩定。但除此之外，我們該如何思考今年剩下的時間和明年呢？

Well, I think when we look at our pricing, we've been guiding -- for the second quarter, we guided to around $345 per tonne to $350 per tonne. I think we averaged $352 per tonne for the quarter. For this coming quarter, we're guiding to $350 per tonne to $360 per tonne. And when I look at where pricing is, we've got cost curve levels at $290 per tonne to $300 per tonne in China.

嗯，我認為，當我們考慮定價時，我們一直在指導——第二季度，我們指導價格約為每噸 345 美元至 350 美元。我認為本季我們的平均價格為每噸 352 美元。對於下個季度，我們的指導價為每噸 350 美元至 360 美元。當我查看定價時，我們發現中國的成本曲線水準為每噸 290 美元至 300 美元。

So I think when we look at it, we're setting price as to what a reasonable market price should be in all the regions where we're selling into, and we're achieving significant premiums, I think, which is reflective of tight market balances, which we expect to continue for the rest of the year, as I said in the earlier remarks. So we're not as focused on the discount. We're focused on realizations. And I do think you've seen discounts creeping up mainly because that's the competitive way of pricing into the market, not what we think is reflective of lower realizations.

因此，我認為，當我們考慮這個問題時，我們正在設定價格，確定我們銷售的所有地區的合理市場價格，並且我認為我們正在實現顯著的溢價，這反映了緊張的情況正如我在之前的演講所說，市場平衡，我們預計今年剩餘時間將持續這種情況。所以我們不太關注折扣。我們專注於實現。我確實認為折扣逐漸增加，主要是因為這是市場定價的競爭方式，而不是我們認為的反映了較低的實現。

Okay, got it. And then I think through the quarter, I saw some reports on curtailments to Trinidad gas. I think you called out a couple of unplanned outages. I was wondering, were those related? And can you comment on how you're seeing that develop through this quarter?

好的，明白了。然後我認為在整個季度中，我看到了一些關於特立尼達天然氣削減的報告。我認為您指出了幾次計劃外停機。我想知道，這些有關係嗎？您能否評論一下本季的發展？

Yeah. So those were not gas related. Our outages was -- our air separation unit went down in Trinidad and we had to perform some maintenance in Trinidad. But there was gas outages in that upstream during the quarter. Didn't affect our operations, but it did affect other producers at the Point Lisas estate. But yeah, unrelated for our Atlas operations.

是的。所以這些與天然氣無關。我們的停電是－我們的空氣分離裝置在特立尼達發生故障，我們必須在特立尼達進行一些維護。但本季上游出現天然氣中斷。沒有影響我們的運營，但確實影響了利薩斯角莊園的其他生產商。但是，是的，與我們的 Atlas 業務無關。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

Hi Rich. I'm going to ask three quick questions, if you allow me. First, on your maintained guidance for 7 million tonnes of Methanex produced volume, how round is that 7 million tonnes? Is it more like 6.5 million tonnes to 7 million tonnes? And the reason I say is to make all your numbers work, it's kind of hard -- you say Q3 production will be a little bit lower than Q2. To get that $7 million for the full year, you need to run rate, I don't know, like a 10 million tonne run rate in the fourth quarter. That would be everything going full out. Can you maybe talk about how round the 7 million tonne number is?

嗨，里奇。如果您允許的話，我將快速問三個問題。首先，根據你們維持的 700 萬噸甲烷產量指導，這 700 萬噸是多少？是不是更接近 650 萬噸到 700 萬噸？我之所以這麼說是為了讓所有的數字都發揮作用，這有點困難——你說第三季的產量會比第二季低一點。為了獲得全年 700 萬美元的收入，你需要運行速度，我不知道，例如第四季度 1000 萬噸的運行速度。那一切都會全力以赴。您能談談700萬噸這個數字是多少嗎？

I think we feel good about the 7 million tonne with G3 where it is right now and our expectation for G3. I've talked about some ups and downs as it relates to Chile and New Zealand, and I think most of the other things are factored in. So we feel pretty good at the 7 million tonne range for the year.

我認為我們對 G3 目前的 700 萬噸以及我們對 G3 的期望感覺良好。我已經談到了與智利和紐西蘭有關的一些起伏，我認為大多數其他事情都被考慮在內。因此，我們對今年 700 萬噸的範圍感到非常滿意。

For the year, got you. And then second question, the Egypt repair that you had, you obviously put back online 7 months ago. You've got some insurance settlement may be coming from that. Can you talk about that. And that's obviously not including your EBITDA forecast, but I imagine that would be put into EBITDA one of these quarters coming up.

這一年，有你。第二個問題，您在埃及進行的維修，顯然是在 7 個月前重新上線的。你可能會從中得到一些保險賠償。你能談談這個嗎？這顯然不包括您的 EBITDA 預測，但我想這將被計入接下來幾季的 EBITDA 中。

Yeah. We expect to collect on insurance in the coming quarter. So I think that's going to -- we should expect to see insurance proceeds coming in in Q3.

是的。我們預計在下個季度收取保險費。所以我認為我們應該期望在第三季看到保險收益。

But that's not included in your guidance in the outlook last night.

但這並不包括在您昨晚的展望指引中。

No, that's not included in the guidance.

不，這不包括在指南中。

And finally, now that you've got G3 starting up last day or two (inaudible) fully ramped up over the next month or so, got the maturing debt later in the fourth quarter. What is the signpost now to be [continual] to buy back stock when you're ready to go again on the buyback?

最後，現在 G3 已在最後一兩天（聽不清楚）啟動，並在下個月左右全面啟動，並在第四季度晚些時候獲得了到期債務。當你準備再次回購股票時，現在[持續]回購股票的路標是什麼？

I mean, right now, our first priority is to the debt, and we still have some cash to build in advance of that. So that's our main focus today. I think once we move past that, we don't have any major growth capital. I think we can start looking at use of capital beyond that. And we have said that there'd be -- we've got a very strong free cash flow profile, as you know, and there will be room for considering share repurchases along with we do think there's some room for the debt, but we think we can do things in a balanced way there post building up for our $300 million debt repayment. So I think what we want to do is focus on that today. And then once we get confident we're there, we can consider other uses of capital beyond.

我的意思是，現在我們的首要任務是債務，在此之前我們仍然有一些現金可以累積。這就是我們今天的主要焦點。我認為一旦我們超越了這一點，我們就沒有任何主要的成長資本。我認為我們可以開始考慮除此之外的資本使用。我們說過，正如你所知，我們有非常強勁的自由現金流狀況，並且有考慮股票回購的空間，而且我們確實認為還有一些債務空間，但我們我認為我們可以在為償還3 億美元債務做好準備後以平衡的方式做事。所以我認為我們今天要做的就是專注在這一點上。一旦我們確信我們已經做到了這一點，我們就可以考慮資本的其他用途。

Steve Hansen, Raymond James.

史蒂夫漢森，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

I wanted to follow up on Joel's question indirectly about the buyback. I think in the past, you said that $200 million to $250 million of cash is sort of like a comfortable position you'd like to keep on the balance sheet at any given time just to operate the business methodically. I mean, has that changed at all with G3 production coming online? Do you need slightly more than that? Just trying to get a sense of that comfort position so we can think about the excess cash build and how that might go to other uses.

我想間接跟進喬爾關於回購的問題。我認為過去，您曾說過，2 億至 2.5 億美元的現金有點像您希望在任何特定時間都保留在資產負債表上的舒適位置，只是為了有條不紊地經營業務。我的意思是，隨著 G3 生產的上線，這種情況有什麼改變嗎？您需要比這多一點嗎？只是試圖了解這種舒適的狀況，以便我們可以考慮多餘的現金累積以及如何將其用於其他用途。

I think we would be in the range of $250 million to $300 million. Just when we look at where our cash is earned and how we need to move it around to run the business, that's sort of our comfort level. So I wouldn't think that there's a meaningful change with G3 and not having the capital spend there. But yeah, that's sort of a range to be using, Steve.

我認為我們的預算將在 2.5 億至 3 億美元之間。當我們考慮我們的現金從哪裡賺取以及我們需要如何使用它來經營業務時，這就是我們的舒適度。因此，我不認為 G3 會發生有意義的變化，也沒有在那裡投入資本。但是，是的，這就是一個要使用的範圍，史蒂夫。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just jumping over to Chile. You've obviously been successful at procuring some additional gas there. You've talked about increased availability there before, but it's taken some time to ultimately execute on getting the gas. Has anything changed in the market down there that's allowed you greater comfort to secure more gas or what are we seeing down there?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就跳到智利。顯然你已經成功地在那裡購買了一些額外的天然氣。您之前已經談到了那裡的可用性的提高，但最終需要一些時間才能獲得天然氣。那裡的市場是否發生了任何變化，讓您更容易獲得更多天然氣，或者我們在那裡看到了什麼？

Well, I'm very comfortable around securing gas outside of the winter period, right? We've got a lot of gas available to us from Argentina outside the winter period, in fact, more than our needs. I think we're being offered more than we need for our Chilean operations, which is very positive. The challenge will be through the winter period because gas is restricted from an export perspective.

嗯，我很樂意在冬季之外確保天然氣，對嗎？在冬季以外，我們可以從阿根廷獲得大量天然氣，事實上，超出了我們的需求。我認為我們得到的服務超出了我們在智利業務所需的水平，這是非常積極的。挑戰將貫穿整個冬季，因為從出口角度來看，天然氣受到限制。

We are in early discussions there about the winter period because the country is increasingly trying to ramp up pipeline connections and gas takeaway capability out of the Vaca Muerta. They're also developing fields in the south, which is going to add in another 5 million cubic meters into the grid that's effectively stranded. And so we're a very logical purchaser for that gas. So I think these things are going to develop, but our goal is to have year-round gas in Chile given the dynamics in Argentina.

我們正在就冬季進行早期討論，因為該國越來越多地嘗試加強瓦卡穆爾塔的管道連接和天然氣外運能力。他們還在南部開發油田，這將為實際上擱淺的電網增加另外 500 萬立方公尺的儲量。因此，我們是該天然氣的非常合乎邏輯的購買者。所以我認為這些事情將會發展，但考慮到阿根廷的動態，我們的目標是在智利全年供應天然氣。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just one final one, if I may, is going back to Ben's question at the very outset and some of the challenges in New Zealand. I mean is there an ability to move any one of those plants over time you've done in the past? Those are older facilities, of course. But is there any context around whether a move a facility might make some sense in terms of optimization of the footprint?

好的。這很有幫助。如果可以的話，最後一個問題是回到本一開始的問題以及紐西蘭面臨的一些挑戰。我的意思是，你是否有能力隨著時間的推移移動其中任何一株植物？當然，這些都是較舊的設施。但是，就佔地面積優化而言，搬遷設施是否有意義？

Yeah. Well, I guess the first thing is maybe just the relocation economics and how they work. Relocation economics aren't significant savings on capital. And so it's usually -- if you're looking at that, it's more trying to execute a project to grow methanol supply in a shorter timeframe, and that's where you get value. I don't think we're in that position today. These plants are not, I don't think, would be the plants you would look to move. And I don't think we're in a position today to be making that decision or being exploring that based on our gas outlook at this point. We need to get a better feel for the medium, long-term in the country before we'd be looking at anything like that.

是的。嗯，我想第一件事可能只是搬遷經濟學及其運作方式。搬遷經濟學並不能顯著節省資本。因此，如果你專注於這個問題，通常會嘗試更多地執行一個項目，在更短的時間內增加甲醇供應，這就是你獲得價值的地方。我不認為我們今天處於這樣的境地。我不認為這些植物是你想要移動的植物。我認為我們今天無法根據目前的天然氣前景做出這項決定或進行探索。在我們考慮類似的事情之前，我們需要對這個國家的中長期有更好的認識。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德 (Hassan Ahmed)，Alembic Global。

Good morning Rich. Just wanted to revisit a bunch of questions that were asked earlier about New Zealand. I mean, obviously, you guys have gas contracts in place over there. I'm just trying to get a sort of -- if you could dig a bit deeper into the structure of those contracts. I mean, is there any restitution? Could you receive any payments maybe for the gas deliveries that did not happen?

早安，豐富。只是想重溫一下之前提出的一系列關於紐西蘭的問題。我的意思是，顯然，你們那裡有天然氣合約。我只是想了解一下——如果你能更深入地了解這些合約的結構。我的意思是，有補償嗎？您能否收到未發生的天然氣交付的任何付款？

Maybe I'll start with the contracts themselves. These contracts, we're -- we have entitlement to gas per year, but that is based off of what they are bringing to market, right? And there is priority in terms of gas. And so if the gas is available and our contracts should be fulfilled, yes, there's restitution that should be paid. And that's certainly when we say we're in discussions with our gas suppliers, these are some of the discussions that are being had.

也許我會從合約本身開始。這些合同，我們每年有權獲得天然氣，但這取決於他們向市場推出的產品，對嗎？並且在天然氣方面有優先權。因此，如果天然氣可用並且我們的合約應該履行，是的，應該支付賠償金。當然，當我們說我們正在與天然氣供應商進行討論時，這些都是正在進行的一些討論。

Now if the gas is not available and their portfolio is not delivering, that's another issue. We don't have -- deliver or pay obligations on those gas contracts if the gas is not producing. So I think there's two issues there, and we're dealing with both of them right now.

現在，如果天然氣無法供應並且他們的投資組合無法交付，那就是另一個問題了。如果天然氣沒有生產，我們就沒有交付或支付這些天然氣合約的義務。所以我認為有兩個問題，我們現在正在處理這兩個問題。

Very helpful. And as a follow-up, on the demand side of things, in sort of the press release, you guys talked about global methanol demand being up sequentially. Just wanted to get a better sense of what the inventory situation looks like. Is demand improving, maybe potentially because of a restock? And part and parcel with that, what are you guys seeing above and beyond just the MTO side in terms of Chinese demand? And maybe if you could, on the China side, also parlay that with if you are possibly seeing any maybe shutdowns in Chinese capacity as well?

非常有幫助。作為後續行動，在需求方面，在某種新聞稿中，你們談到了全球甲醇需求連續上升。只是想更了解庫存情況。需求是否有改善，可能是因為補貨？除此之外，除了 MTO 方面之外，你們對中國需求有何看法？如果中國方面也可能看到中國產能被關閉，也許您也可以利用這一點？

Thanks, Hassan. In terms of overall demand, maybe I'll just give a snapshot of the market globally and look to last year and where we are this year. Last year, we would say the market was probably around 92 million tonnes. And that does include a slow start in China. But today, for the first half of 2024, we're probably in the 95 million tonnes to 96 million tonnes. And that's with MTO flat or slightly lower than last year.

謝謝，哈桑。就整體需求而言，也許我只會簡單介紹全球市場，並回顧去年和今年的情況。去年，我們認為市場容量可能約為 9,200 萬噸。這確實包括中國的緩慢起步。但今天，2024 年上半年，我們的產量可能在 9,500 萬噸到 9,600 萬噸之間。MTO 與去年持平或略低。

So when we think about demand growth, it's actually been pretty strong and healthy around the different sectors compared to last year. I think when we look around the markets outside of China, growth rates are about 3% over last year. And then what we're looking in China, we're seeing growth rates for traditional demand at about 4% to 5% over last year. And then the energy-related demand that's in China, which is quite meaningful, is also at that around 4% rates over last year. So I think that's actually really putting stress on the methanol markets and the ability to meet that demand with supply. And that's where the MTO sector, I think, is really becoming that balance.

因此，當我們考慮需求成長時，與去年相比，不同行業的需求成長實際上相當強勁且健康。我認為當我們環顧中國以外的市場時，成長率比去年約為3%。然後我們在中國看到，傳統需求的成長率比去年約為 4% 至 5%。中國的能源相關需求也很有意義，比去年增加了 4% 左右。因此，我認為這實際上給甲醇市場以及供應滿足需求的能力帶來了壓力。我認為，這就是 MTO 產業真正實現這種平衡的地方。

When we think about China demand, the domestic economy is still something we watch really closely and domestic consumption, which we don't think is strong. Export markets have been stronger this year, which has helped bring that demand up. In terms of operating rates in China, we're seeing operating rates in China above 60%. So that's actually reasonably high relative to past performance there.

當我們考慮中國需求時，我們仍然密切關注國內經濟和國內消費，但我們認為國內消費並不強勁。今年出口市場更加強勁，有助於增加需求。就中國的開工率而言，我們看到中國的開工率超過60%。所以相對於過去的表現來說，這其實是相當高的。

And so we don't think there's a lot of latent capacity that can come on in China to meet this growing demand. So we do -- our view is that we are in a tight market. Inventories are reflective of that. There could be swings between when MTO shuts down and when it starts up. But we would say we're in a pretty structurally tight market right now with inventories pretty tight.

因此，我們認為中國沒有太多的潛在產能來滿足這種不斷增長的需求。所以我們確實認為我們正處於一個緊張的市場。庫存反映了這一點。MTO 關閉和啟動之間可能會有波動。但我們會說，我們目前正處於一個結構性相當緊張的市場，庫存也相當緊張。

Nelson Ng, RBC Capital Markets.

納爾遜·吳（Nelson Ng），加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

First question is on Trinidad in terms of Titan restarting and mothballing Atlas. Now that you're kind of heading up to that point, should we expect any kind of onetime costs to impact EBITDA in Q3? And then also, is the gas contract, the current one that's expiring, does it expire like in early September or at the end of September?

第一個問題是關於特立尼達的泰坦重啟和封存阿特拉斯的問題。現在您已經接近這一點，我們是否應該預期任何一次性成本都會影響第三季的 EBITDA？另外，目前即將到期的天然氣合約是9月初還是9月底到期？

So in terms of cost, you shouldn't expect any cost. And we are planning this to be quite a seamless transition from Atlas to Titan. So we are not expecting a lot of downtime or periods where we're not producing at all in Trinidad. And then when it relates to gas contracts, you can think mid-September timeframe for the changeover there.

因此，就成本而言，您不應該期望任何成本。我們計劃這是從阿特拉斯到泰坦的無縫過渡。因此，我們預計特立尼達不會出現大量停工或根本不生產的時期。然後，當涉及天然氣合約時，您可以考慮在 9 月中旬進行轉換的時間範圍。

Okay. And then just to clarify on the Atlas asset. Do you expect any write-downs or is there any debt still at Atlas that needs to be repaid over the coming months?

好的。然後澄清一下 Atlas 資產。您預計 Atlas 是否會出現任何減記，或者是否還有任何債務需要在未來幾個月內償還？

No debt. When we think about the asset values, we look at Trinidad as a group, and that's something we always review. I don't think we're going to point towards any asset write-downs at this time, but we do look at it. These assets are, they're older assets, so we don't have a tonne of book value associated with them. But that's something we'll look at as we look at our accounts each year.

沒有債務。當我們考慮資產價值時，我們將特立尼達視為一個整體，這是我們經常審查的事情。我認為我們目前不會指出任何資產減記，但我們確實會考慮這一點。這些資產是較舊的資產，因此我們沒有大量與它們相關的帳面價值。但這是我們每年查看帳目時都會考慮的問題。

Great. And then my next question relates to the Entropy development. So I guess, big picture, you're not investing that much capital. So I think your partners are going to be investing most of the CapEx or it will be coming from grants. So from your perspective, like from a cost perspective, is it mostly the -- like are you paying for the operating cost and the CO2 feedstock that you'll be using?

偉大的。我的下一個問題與熵的發展有關。所以我想，從大局來看，你並沒有投入那麼多資金。因此，我認為您的合作夥伴將投資大部分資本支出，或來自補助金。因此，從您的角度來看，就像從成本角度來看，這主要是——例如您是否支付營運成本和您將使用的二氧化碳原料？

So is it somewhat neutral from a cost per metric tonne of methanol production, or is it going to cost you more because you're producing lower or less carbon-intensive methanol? Can you just talk about the economics, assuming the pre-FEED and FEED and all that gives you the green light to move forward with the project?

那麼，從每公噸甲醇生產的成本來看，它是否有些中性，或者是否會因為生產較低或碳密集度較低的甲醇而增加您的成本？您能談談經濟學嗎？

Yeah. Thanks. So the commercial arrangements aren't finalized. That's one thing I want to start with, where a part of the pre-FEED will also be looking at what the commercial structures should look like. And so I think in our initial press release, we said Entropy would construct and own the unit. Obviously, they are the technology provider and the experts on this technology. But we're looking at the commercial arrangements as part of the pre-FEED process.

是的。謝謝。因此商業安排尚未最終確定。這是我想要開始的一件事，預 FEED 的一部分也將研究商業結構應該是什麼樣子。因此，我認為在我們最初的新聞稿中，我們說過熵將建造並擁有該單位。顯然，他們是技術的提供者，也是這項技術的專家。但我們正在將商業安排視為預前端流程的一部分。

But when you think about the economics, you're right. As I said, two-thirds of the economics will come from what we pay or the economics of producing methanol to produce incremental tonnes. And then the remainder will come through sequestration, the value of carbon credits for storing CO2 underground.

但當你考慮經濟學時，你是對的。正如我所說，三分之二的經濟效益將來自我們支付的費用或生產甲醇以增加產量的經濟效益。然後剩餘的部分將透過封存來實現，即用於將二氧化碳儲存在地下的碳信用額的價值。

So you can think of the methanol generating two-thirds of the value and the carbon credits generating one-third of the value. And as it relates to those pricing, we're looking at what it takes to make this project work. And in addition, I think what regulatory support is available that will help push this forward as well. And all of that, we're looking through the pre-FEED process.

因此，您可以認為甲醇產生了三分之二的價值，碳信用產生了三分之一的價值。由於它與這些定價相關，我們正在研究如何使該項目發揮作用。此外，我認為哪些監管支援也將有助於推動這項進程。所有這些，我們都在研究預送流程。

Okay. So I guess, very big picture. For it to work from Methanex's perspective given that you're mainly kind of paying for the CO2, do you want to be kind of cost neutral but generate lower carbon-intensive methanol? Is that the benefit you're looking for or?

好的。所以我想，這是一個非常大的畫面。從 Methanex 的角度來看，考慮到您主要為二氧化碳付費，您是否希望實現成本中性，但生產碳密集度較低的甲醇？這是您正在尋找的好處嗎？

I think maybe your question is a little bit, are we expecting to generate a blue premium or something that allows us to market this above cost. If that's the question, I don't think the blue -- there's a blue methanol market today that we're expecting is going to support this project because that market really is undeveloped. And so what we need is the value of this methanol from a conventional methanol to work and to make sense in terms of generating additional earnings or EBITDA from that methanol production.

我想也許你的問題是，我們是否期望產生藍色溢價或允許我們銷售高於成本的東西。如果這是問題所在，我認為今天的藍色甲醇市場不會支持這個項目，因為該市場確實尚未開發。因此，我們需要的是這種甲醇相對於傳統甲醇的價值，使其能夠發揮作用，並在從甲醇生產中產生額外收入或 EBITDA 方面有意義。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

Could you give us a sense on exactly how much inventory you're looking to build in the third quarter or any sort of metrics like days inventory that you're targeting with G3 online?

您能否告訴我們您希望在第三季建立多少庫存，或者您在 G3 Online 上定位的庫存天數等任何類型的指標？

Yeah. I think first and foremost, I think a lot of the inventory will be managed through our sales levels. And we don't expect that our sales levels change dramatically with G3. What we will see is a mix of inventory. We'll have more produced product and less purchase product in our system. So we're not targeting a change in inventory to support G3. I do think what you should expect to see is that this is lower cost inventory that we'll be holding versus buying product on the market. So there could be some positives on our working capital that we can look forward to on that.

是的。我認為首先也是最重要的是，我認為許多庫存將透過我們的銷售水準進行管理。我們預計 G3 的銷售水準不會發生巨大變化。我們將看到的是庫存的混合。我們的系統中將有更多的生產產品和更少的採購產品。因此，我們的目標不是改變庫存來支持 G3。我確實認為您應該期望看到的是，與在市場上購買產品相比，我們持有的庫存成本更低。因此，我們的營運資本可能會帶來一些值得我們期待的正面因素。

Sounds good. And then the G3 delay costs were $25 million in the first quarter, down to $13 million in the second quarter. Should we pencil in anything for the third quarter?

聽起來不錯。然後，G3 延遲成本第一季為 2500 萬美元，第二季降至 1300 萬美元。我們應該為第三季做好準備嗎？

No. Well, yeah, sorry, one month of G3 delayed cost for July, and that will be gone up -- you could take our number in the second quarter divided by three.

不。嗯，是的，抱歉，G3 7 月的成本推遲了一個月，而且這個數字將會上升——你可以將我們第二季的數字除以三。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯·亞歷山大，杰弗里斯。

Could you give a quick update on sort of how quickly the marine demand should be flowing through in the next couple of years? I mean, we see kind of the longer-term build rate but just how much of an impact we should be thinking of for next year. And how are those companies discussing with you supply given sort of how the tight the market looks to be getting?

能否快速介紹一下未來幾年海洋需求的流動速度？我的意思是，我們看到了長期的建設速度，但我們應該考慮明年的影響有多大。鑑於市場看起來有多緊張，那些公司如何與您討論供應？

Yeah. Thanks, Laurence. So on the marine demand, maybe talk to where we are today and then how that will kind of develop over time. We talked about last year being the first year where methanol ships outpaced LNG in terms of the order book. Right now, we're expecting that order book is well over 300 ships on the water in the '28, '29 timeframe. And I think what we're doing is talking about demand potential because it's difficult to say exactly what the demand would be.

是的。謝謝，勞倫斯。因此，關於海洋需求，也許可以談談我們今天的處境，以及隨著時間的推移，這種需求將如何發展。我們談到去年是甲醇船訂單量超過液化天然氣的第一年。目前，我們預計 2028 年和 29 年期間的訂單量將遠遠超過 300 艘船舶。我認為我們正在做的是討論需求潛力，因為很難確切地說出需求是什麼。

And when we quote demand potential, we're not saying this is what the total demand will be. But the demand potential will start off next year, probably -- the total demand potential is somewhere close to 10 million tonnes now. There will be 1.5 million or so next year, and then you build up to 3.5 million, and then you're up to 7 million, and then you work your way into the 10 million tonnes of demand potential.

當我們引用需求潛力時，我們並不是說這就是總需求。但需求潛力可能從明年開始——目前總需求潛力接近 1,000 萬噸。明年將有 150 萬噸左右，然後增加到 350 萬噸，然後增加到 700 萬噸，然後逐步達到 1000 萬噸的需求潛力。

Now the big question is what will they actually burn because these are dual fuel vessels. And to your point, we're having a lot of discussions with the shipping companies about supply. And I think a lot of those discussions start with low carbon or green methanol because the intent here is a lot of these ships are looking to methanol from a decarbonization perspective. I think they're seeing that, one, there's not a lot of availability; and two, the cost is really high to begin with.

現在最大的問題是它們實際上會燃燒什麼，因為這些是雙燃料容器。就您而言，我們正在與航運公司就供應問題進行大量討論。我認為很多討論都是從低碳或綠色甲醇開始的，因為這裡的目的是很多船舶都從脫碳的角度尋求甲醇。我認為他們看到了這一點，第一，沒有太多的空閒時間；第二，沒有足夠的時間。第二，成本確實很高。

So we also -- we are in discussions as well about conventional methanol. I think securing supply is going to be critical, and that's what our low-carbon solutions team is working on with the shipping company. So it's really hard for us to kind of give you precise numbers until we work through -- starting to see secure -- securing some contracts and working with the shipping industry more as they make their decisions on these future field choices they're going to make. So we hope to be able to give you more insight as this develops because we are getting closer to the timeframes where these ships are in the water.

因此，我們也在討論傳統甲醇。我認為確保供應至關重要，這就是我們的低碳解決方案團隊正在與航運公司合作的內容。因此，在我們完成工作（開始看到安全）之前，我們很難給您準確的數字，以獲得一些合約並與航運業更多地合作，因為他們對未來的領域選擇做出了決定製作。因此，隨著事態的發展，我們希望能夠為您提供更多的見解，因為我們越來越接近這些船隻下水的時間範圍。

Charles Neivert, Piper Sandler.

查爾斯·尼維特，派珀·桑德勒。

You talked about MTO being sort of the tipping or balancing point for the industry. Can you talk a little bit about where the price of methanol needs to be to sort of push it out or take it back in? I mean, we're sort of balancing on the line maybe now. Can we go higher and still keep the MTO plants in or -- and this is all assuming that the ethylene and polyethylene markets stay approximately where they are. But under that circumstance, where are we on that pricing?

您談到 MTO 是該行業的轉捩點或平衡點。您能否談談甲醇的價格需要達到什麼水平才能將其推出或收回？我的意思是，我們現在可能正在平衡。我們能否走得更高，但仍保留 MTO 工廠？但在這種情況下，我們的定價處於什麼水準？

Yeah. I'll start with the pricing. We're at very low pricing, low like historically low. So it's hard to see it getting worse. We've had ethylene, propylene prices in Asia between $800 and $900 per tonne for quite some time. And just on a historical basis that would be correlated to about a $40 oil price environment. And so we think that there really is a low -- at the very low cycle right now. That translates into a C2, C3 kind of straight affordability at around where the cost curve is today. So call it that $280 level. These guys have integrated -- a lot of them are integrated downstream. So when you look at integration and the full value chain, there's usually more value when you go further down. And so it's higher than that.

是的。我將從定價開始。我們的定價非常低，低得像歷史最低點。所以很難看到情況變得更糟。相當長一段時間以來，亞洲乙烯、丙烯價格一直在每噸 800 美元至 900 美元之間。僅從歷史來看，這與 40 美元左右的油價環境有關。所以我們認為現在確實存在一個低點——處於非常低的周期。這轉化為 C2、C3 類型的直接承受能力，大約在今天的成本曲線附近。所以稱之為 280 美元水準。這些人已經整合了——其中許多都整合到了下游。因此，當你審視整合和整個價值鏈時，你會發現，當你進一步深入時，通常會發現更多價值。所以它比這個更高。

But I think when we start moving into pricing for methanol, kind of getting above the $320 to $350 range, we start to see some pressure on their operations. And today, pricing is in and around that $290 level and it's holding. And we've seen one MTO unit large scale just recently start-up. So I think we're kind of in this where cost curve and MTO affordability is in this $280 to $320 kind of level. And we've seen that be quite stable in China around that. If there's an improvement in ethylene and propylene markets, you would expect that the ability to pay goes up. And increasingly, this is a demand-driven industry right now. And so we think that that would further support pricing.

但我認為，當我們開始對甲醇進行定價（有點高於 320 美元至 350 美元的範圍）時，我們開始看到他們的營運面臨一些壓力。如今，定價處於 290 美元左右並保持不變。我們也看到最近剛啟動了一個大規模的 MTO 裝置。所以我認為我們的成本曲線和 MTO 承受能力處於 280 至 320 美元的水平。我們已經看到中國的情況相當穩定。如果乙烯和丙烯市場有所改善，您預計支付能力將會提高。現在，這個產業越來越成為一個需求驅動的產業。因此我們認為這將進一步支持定價。

And ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. And I'll now turn the call back over to Mr. Rich Sumner.

女士們、先生們，目前沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話轉回給里奇·薩姆納先生。

Right. Well, thank you for your questions and interest in our company. We hope you'll join us in November when we update you on our third-quarter results.

正確的。好的，感謝您的提問以及對我們公司的興趣。我們希望您能在 11 月加入我們，屆時我們將向您更新第三季的業績。

Thank you. And this does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。