Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Medpace Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

    各位女士、先生,大家好,歡迎參加 Medpace 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員說明)提醒您,本次通話正在錄音。

  • I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Lauren Morris, Medpace's Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

    現在我謹向大家介紹今天電話會議的主持人,Medpace 的投資者關係總監 Lauren Morris。你可以開始了。

  • Lauren Morris - Director of Investor Relations

    Lauren Morris - Director of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining Medpace's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Also on the call today are our CEO, August Troendle; our President, Jesse Geiger; and our CFO, Kevin Brady. .

    早安,感謝各位參加 Medpace 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的還有我們的執行長 August Troendle;我們的總裁 Jesse Geiger;以及我們的財務長 Kevin Brady。。

  • Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our remarks and responses to your questions during this teleconference may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

    在會議開始前,我想提醒各位,我們在本次電話會議期間的發言和對您問題的回答可能包含1995年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所界定的前瞻性陳述。

  • These statements involve inherent assumptions with known and unknown risks and uncertainties as well as other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. These factors are discussed in our Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC. Please note that we assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements even if estimates change.

    這些聲明涉及固有的假設,存在已知和未知的風險和不確定性,以及其他可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異的重要因素。這些因素已在我們的 10-K 表格和提交給美國證券交易委員會的其他文件中進行了討論。請注意,即使預測發生變化,我們也沒有義務更新前瞻性聲明。

  • Accordingly, you should not rely on any of today's forward-looking statements as representing our views as of any date after today.

    因此,您不應將今天發布的任何前瞻性聲明視為代表我們截至今天之後任何日期的觀點。

  • During this call, we will also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not superior to or a replacement for the comparable GAAP measures, but we believe these measures help investors gain a more complete understanding of results. A reconciliation of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in the earnings press release and earnings call presentation slides provided in connection with today's call. The slides are available in the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.medpace.com.

    在本次電話會議中,我們也將提及一些非GAAP財務指標。這些非GAAP指標並不優於或取代對應的GAAP指標,但我們相信這些指標有助於投資人更全面地了解績效。有關這些非GAAP財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP指標的調節表,請參閱今天電話會議提供的獲利新聞稿和獲利電話會議簡報。幻燈片可在我們網站 investor.medpace.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

  • With that, I would now like to turn the call over to August Troendle.

    接下來,我將把電話交給奧古斯特·特倫德爾。

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • August Troendle Chairman & CEO Good day, everyone. Cancellations were well behaved in Q3, permitting record net bookings and a net book-to-bill of 1.20. RFP quality remains solid with decisions progressing on a usual tempo. Initial award notifications were strong, and our total dollar value awarded work not yet recognized in the backlog was up approximately 30% in Q3 on a year-over-year basis. We are making good progress towards refilling our pipeline of opportunities.

    August Troendle 董事長兼執行長 大家好。第三季取消訂單情況良好,使得淨預訂量創歷史新高,淨預訂出貨比達到 1.20。招標品質依然穩定,決策進程也以正常速度進行。初步授標通知情況良好,第三季已授標但尚未計入積壓訂單的總金額年增約 30%。我們在補充專案機會方面取得了良好進展。

  • We will provide 2026 guidance when we report full year 2025 results in February. However, I will provide a brief preliminary view in an attempt to avoid significant divergence between our view and analyst models. We anticipate 2026 revenue to grow in a low double-digit range off our updated 2025 full year guidance. We expect EBITDA to grow at a high single-digit pace or greater. We believe pass-through costs will remain high compared to historical levels and represent between 41% and 42% of revenue.

    我們將於2月公佈2025年全年業績時,提供2026年的業績指引。不過,為了避免我們的觀點與分析師的模型有重大分歧,我將提供一個簡單的初步觀點。我們預計 2026 年的營收將比我們更新後的 2025 年全年預期實現低兩位數成長。我們預計 EBITDA 將以接近兩位數的速度成長,甚至更快。我們認為,與歷史水準相比,轉嫁成本將保持在高位,佔收入的 41% 至 42%。

  • Jesse will now provide comments on the Q. Jesse?

    傑西現在將對這個問題發表評論。傑西?

  • Jesse Geiger - President

    Jesse Geiger - President

  • Thank you, August. Good morning, everyone. Revenue in the third quarter of 2025 was $659.9 million, which represents a year-over-year increase of 23.7%. Net new business awards entering backlog in the third quarter increased 47.9% from the prior year to $789.6 million, resulting in a 1.20 net book-to-bill.

    謝謝你,奧古斯特。各位早安。2025 年第三季營收為 6.599 億美元,年增 23.7%。第三季新增淨業務訂單金額較上年同期成長 47.9%,達到 7.896 億美元,淨訂單出貨比為 1.20。

  • Ending backlog as of September 30, 2025, was approximately $3 billion, an increase of 2.5% from the prior year. We project that approximately $1.84 billion of backlog will convert to revenue in the next 12 months, and our backlog conversion in the third quarter was 23% of beginning backlog.

    截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日,期末積壓訂單約為 30 億美元,比上年增長 2.5%。我們預計未來 12 個月內,約有 18.4 億美元的積壓訂單將轉化為收入,而第三季的積壓訂單轉換率為期初積壓訂單的 23%。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin to review our financial performance in more detail as well as our guidance expectations for the balance of 2025. Kevin?

    接下來,我將把電話交給凱文,讓他更詳細地回顧我們的財務表現以及我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的預期。凱文?

  • Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Jesse, and good morning to everyone listening in. As Jesse mentioned, revenue was $659.9 million in the third quarter of 2025. This represented a year-over-year increase of 23.7%. Revenue for the 9 months ended September 30, 2025, was $1.82 billion, and increased 15.9%.

    謝謝你,傑西,也祝所有收聽節目的朋友們早安。正如傑西所提到的,2025 年第三季的收入為 6.599 億美元。這比上年同期成長了23.7%。截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日的 9 個月,營收為 18.2 億美元,成長了 15.9%。

  • As expected, revenue for the quarter was favorably impacted by higher reimbursable cost activity, particularly investigator sites, driven by a therapeutic mix shift to faster burning studies in areas which have a higher concentration of reimbursable costs.

    正如預期的那樣,本季度收入受到可報銷成本活動增加的有利影響,尤其是研究機構,這是由於治療組合轉向在可報銷成本更集中的領域開展快速研究所致。

  • EBITDA of $148.4 million increased 24.9% compared to $118.8 million in the third quarter of 2024. Year-to-date EBITDA was $397.5 million and increased 14.7% from the comparable prior year period. EBITDA margin for the third quarter was 22.5% compared to 22.3% in the prior year period. Year-to-date EBITDA margin was 21.8% compared to 22% in the prior year period.

    2024 年第三季 EBITDA 為 1.484 億美元,較 2024 年第三季的 1.188 億美元成長 24.9%。今年迄今的 EBITDA 為 3.975 億美元,比去年同期成長 14.7%。第三季 EBITDA 利潤率為 22.5%,而去年同期為 22.3%。今年迄今的 EBITDA 利潤率為 21.8%,而去年同期為 22%。

  • EBITDA margins benefited from productivity and lower employee-related costs, offset by higher reimbursable costs. In the third quarter of 2025, net income of $111.1 million, increased 15.3% compared to net income of $96.4 million in the prior year period. Net income growth below EBITDA growth was primarily driven by a higher effective tax rate and lower interest income compared to the prior year period.

    EBITDA 利潤率受益於生產力提高和員工相關成本降低,但被更高的報銷成本所抵銷。2025 年第三季度,淨收入為 1.111 億美元,比上年同期的淨收入 9,640 萬美元成長了 15.3%。淨利潤成長低於 EBITDA 成長,主要是由於實際稅率較高和利息收入較上年同期下降。

  • Net income per diluted share for the quarter was $3.86 compared to $3.01 in the prior year period. Regarding customer concentration, our top 5 and top 10 customers represent roughly 23% and 33%, respectively, of our year-to-date revenue.

    本季每股攤薄淨收益為 3.86 美元,而去年同期為 3.01 美元。就客戶集中度而言,我們前 5 名和前 10 名客戶分別約占我們今年迄今收入的 23% 和 33%。

  • In the third quarter, we generated $246.2 million in cash flow from operating activities, and our net days sales outstanding was negative 64.3 days. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 14,649 shares for $4.5 million. Year-to-date, we repurchased 2.96 million shares for $912.9 million. As of September 30, 2025, we had $821.7 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization program.

    第三季度,我們從經營活動產生了 2.462 億美元的現金流,淨應收帳款週轉天數為負 64.3 天。本季度,我們回購了約14,649股股票,耗資450萬美元。年初至今,我們以 9.129 億美元的價格回購了 296 萬股股票。截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日,我們的股票回購授權計畫下還剩餘 8.217 億美元。

  • Moving now to our updated guidance for 2025. Full year 2025 total revenue is now expected in the range of $2.48 billion to $2.53 billion, representing growth of 17.6% to 20% over 2024 total revenue of $2.11 billion. Our 2025 EBITDA is now expected in the range of $545 million to $555 million, representing growth of 13.5% to 15.6% compared to EBITDA of $480.2 million in 2024.

    接下來,我們將介紹我們更新後的 2025 年指引。預計 2025 年全年總收入將在 24.8 億美元至 25.3 億美元之間,比 2024 年 21.1 億美元的總收入增長 17.6% 至 20%。預計我們 2025 年的 EBITDA 將在 5.45 億美元至 5.55 億美元之間,與 2024 年的 EBITDA 4.802 億美元相比,成長 13.5% 至 15.6%。

  • We forecast 2025 net income in the range of $431 million to $439 million. This guidance assumes a full year 2025 effective tax rate of 18.25% to 18.75%, interest income of $12.2 million and 29.5 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding. There are no additional share repurchases in our guidance. Earnings per diluted share is now expected to be in the range of $14.60 to $14.86. Guidance is based on foreign exchange rates as of September 30, 2025.

    我們預測 2025 年淨收入將在 4.31 億美元至 4.39 億美元之間。該指導意見假設 2025 年全年有效稅率為 18.25% 至 18.75%,利息收入為 1,220 萬美元,稀釋加權平均流通股數為 2,950 萬股。我們的業績指引中沒有額外的股票回購計畫。預計稀釋後每股收益將在 14.60 美元至 14.86 美元之間。該預期是基於截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日的匯率。

  • With that, I will turn the call back over to the operator so we can take your questions.

    接下來,我將把電話轉回給接線員,以便我們回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Charles Rhyee, TD Cowen.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Charles Rhyee。

  • Charles Rhyee - Analyst

    Charles Rhyee - Analyst

  • Obviously, congrats on the quarter here. When we think about sort of the kind of ranges that you've given for next year, how should we think about the pass-throughs in relation to maybe the increase in metabolic work? Obviously, we saw another increase here as a percent of total revenue to the 30% in the third quarter from 25% in the first half, but you're still calling out for pass-throughs to remain stable in '26 at that sort of 41% to 42% range. When we think out of your current bookings, are you seeing less metabolic trials compared to your current burn? Or should we expect to see some kind of leveling off in terms of the higher metabolic mix?

    當然,恭喜你本季取得如此佳績。當我們考慮您為明年給出的那些範圍時,我們應該如何看待代謝工作增加所帶來的影響?顯然,我們看到第三季總收入的百分比從上半年的 25% 增加到 30%,但你仍然呼籲 2026 年轉嫁費用保持穩定在 41% 到 42% 的範圍內。從您目前的預訂情況來看,您是否發現代謝試驗次數少於您目前的消耗量?或者我們應該預期高代謝混合物的比例會趨於穩定?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think over the course of '26, it will level up some and might even come down a little bit. But -- and it isn't just the shift to metabolic studies, that is the largest driver, which we've talked about, of course. But timing of projects and having a lot of late-stage projects in the -- in what we're burning as we're going to start ramping up new studies. New studies are -- even if they had the same mix of pass-through costs, there's greater direct costs incurred earlier in a trial. I mean pass-through costs are late in the trial. A trial starts and -- some trials, you can get halfway through the trial, in terms of direct fees, and we've earned half of the revenue from our activities, and we haven't paid sites anything hardly. It's start-up. If it's a very short trial, and startup is a big part of it.

    是的。我認為在 2026 年期間,情況會有所好轉,甚至可能會略有下降。但是——而且這不僅僅是向代謝研究的轉變,這當然是我們之前討論過的最大驅動因素。但是,由於專案的時間安排以及我們有許多後期專案——也就是我們正在消耗的資源,因為我們將開始加強新研究的力度。新的研究表明,即使轉嫁成本的組合相同,試驗早期產生的直接成本也會更高。我的意思是,轉嫁成本是在審判後期才出現的。試用期開始後-有些試用期,你可以拿到一半的直接費用,我們已經從我們的活動中獲得了收入的一半,而且我們幾乎沒有向網站支付任何費用。這是一家新創公司。如果試用期很短,而且啟動階段是其中很重要的一環。

  • So the pass-through parts of a trial are backloaded. So if you have a backloaded portfolio stuff you're burning, you're going to have more pass-throughs as pass-through expenses at that time. So there's a number of things driving it. But yes, we do expect pass-through to maybe peak in Q4 or so and come down over '26.

    因此,審判過程中的過手部分會被後置處理。所以,如果你有一個後置資產組合,而你又在消耗這些資產,那麼屆時你將有更多的轉嫁費用。所以,有很多因素在推動這件事發生。但是,我們預計傳導效應可能會在第四季左右達到頂峰,並在 2026 年下降。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Ann Hynes, Mizuho.

    下一個問題來自瑞穗公司的安·海恩斯。

  • Ann Hynes - Analyst

    Ann Hynes - Analyst

  • Thanks for the 2026 guidance. Typically, your EBITDA grows above your -- initial thoughts, okay. Yes. But typically, your EBITDA growth above revenue and it's growing lower, is that just because of the pass-through dynamic? Or is there something else going on? And within that, if you can just talk about the pricing environment, that would be great.

    感謝您提供的2026年指導。通常情況下,你的 EBITDA 會高於你的——最初的想法,好吧。是的。但通常情況下,您的 EBITDA 成長率高於收入成長率,而且成長率還在下降,這僅僅是因為成本轉嫁效應嗎?還是有其他原因?其中,如果您能談談定價環境,那就太好了。

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think the driver there is the pass-throughs. I mean, look, there's a number of challenges to EBITDA, and that includes exchange rates and a number of factors. But Ann, the biggest factor, I think, is the pass-through that challenges that a little bit. But pricing, look, we've talked and everyone's talked about pricing environment as things have slowed in the industry over the last couple of years, there has been a bigger focus on pricing.

    是的。我認為那裡的驅動因素是過境通道。我的意思是,你看,EBITDA面臨諸多挑戰,其中包括匯率和其他一些因素。但安,我認為最大的因素是傳遞訊息,這在某種程度上挑戰了這一點。但是定價,你看,我們已經討論過定價環境,而且每個人都在討論定價環境,因為過去幾年行業發展放緩,人們更加關注定價問題。

  • Pure pricing is more an area for large pharma to get really aggressive at and has the clout to do it. It is an area of -- it's always a competitive environment. It's always top of mind, but -- and there has been a greater focus. And some clients just can't get the cash to make it work. And so you're looking for ways to help them get there. But I do not think pricing is going to drive a meaningful change in margins at all.

    純粹的定價是大型製藥公司更願意採取激進策略的領域,而且它們也有能力做到這一點。這是一個競爭非常激烈的領域。這件事一直都在我們的考慮範圍之內,而且──我們也更加關注它了。有些客戶就是籌不到足夠的資金來完成這個專案。所以你正在尋找幫助他們實現目標的方法。但我認為價格調整根本不會對利潤率產生任何實質的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is going to come from the line of Michael Cherny, Leerink Partners.

    下一個問題將來自 Leerink Partners 的 Michael Cherny。

  • Michael Cherny - Equity Analyst

    Michael Cherny - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe if I can go back to your comment, August, on some of the pre-backlog filling, encouraging to see, especially given your customer base. As you think about what you're positioning with relative to your preliminary views on FY '26, how you think about the conversion rate of those, of the pre-backlog, your win rate? And how that should factor in relative to what you've seen over the last couple of years?

    也許我可以回到你八月份的評論,關於一些積壓工作前的清理工作,看到這些進展令人鼓舞,尤其考慮到你的客戶群。當您思考相對於 2026 財年的初步看法時,您如何看待這些預測的轉換率、積壓訂單前的轉換率以及您的成交率?那麼,這與你過去幾年所看到的情況相比,又該如何看待呢?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I mean, the conversion of how much of it's going to anticipated pull into revenue versus backlog, I really don't have that breakout. I provided the number to -- there has been some concern that our burn rate has gone up quite a bit, our backlog hasn't grown much this year. So it's low single digit, a couple of percent up over the past year.

    是的。我的意思是,關於預期訂單轉化為收入與積壓訂單的比例,我真的沒有這方面的細分數據。我已將該數字提供給——有人擔心我們的資金消耗速度大幅上升,而我們今年的積壓訂單並沒有增加多少。所以增幅只有個位數,比去年同期增加了幾個百分點。

  • But I wanted to let people know that the overall pipeline of awarded studies -- I mean, I'm not just talking about pipeline of opportunities, of awarded studies, we got a fixed scope of work. We've negotiated the price on it. They've given us a written award of that, and it just hasn't gotten to the first patient in yet. So we may be working on it, et cetera. And it just hasn't gotten to first patient enrolled. And that's in our -- this bucket pre-backlog. And that is up 30%.

    但我希望讓大家知道,已授予研究的整體流程——我的意思是,我指的不僅僅是機會流程,而是已授予的研究,我們有固定的工作範圍。我們已經談好了價格。他們已經頒發了書面獎勵,但還沒送到第一位患者手中。所以,我們可能正在研究這個問題,等等。目前還沒有招募到第一位患者。而這都在我們的──這個待處理待辦事項清單裡。這個數字上升了30%。

  • And this pre-backlog bucket of awarded -- firm award work is larger than our backlog itself and is up 30% over the year, so I think that puts us in a good position for refilling our backlog over the next year and not having what a number of people have described as some sort of air gap in our revenue growth and things will stall, we run out of backlog kind of. So, we really are improving our opportunities for backlog conversion in '26 and revenue generation.

    而且,這批已授予的訂單(公司授予的訂單)比我們自身的積壓訂單還要多,並且比上一年增長了 30%,所以我認為這使我們處於一個良好的位置,可以在未來一年內補充我們的積壓訂單,而不會像許多人所說的那樣,我們的收入增長出現某種缺口,導致業務停滯,或者我們的積壓訂單耗盡。因此,我們確實正在提高 2026 年積壓訂​​單轉換率和收入創造的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from the line of David Windley, Jefferies.

    下一個問題將來自傑富瑞集團的戴維·溫德利。

  • David Windley - Equity Analyst

    David Windley - Equity Analyst

  • So that's good timing. I'll come in right behind that. So, August, in '23-'24, a lot of your peers saw their activity levels, which would be more akin to your kind of initial award timing moderate, decline, begin to feel the impact of lower funding. And then for you, that materialized for Medpace, I should say, that materialized in the weaker book-to-bill is more in the mid '24 timeframe as you saw some of that pre-backlog cancel out and not move forward, et cetera. So, kind of the time -- same timing dynamic sets up for what was a pretty weak funding environment in the first half of '25, so your last answer may have been pointing at me specifically, I'll take that. Why is this time different?

    所以時機正好。我緊跟在後。所以,在 2023-2024 年 8 月,你們許多同儕的活動水準(這更像是你們最初的獎勵時間)趨於平緩、下降,開始感受到資金減少的影響。然後,對於 Medpace 來說,應該說,這種情況在 2024 年中期更為明顯,因為一些積壓訂單被抵消,無法推進,等等。所以,某種程度上來說,當時的情況——同樣的時機動態導致 2025 年上半年的融資環境相當疲弱,所以你上次的回答可能是專門針對我的,我接受這個說法。為什麼這次的情況會有所不同?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I don't know. The difference -- a big difference is, this has been driven by cancellations, not weak business. There are many challenged clients and that does affect the business environment. And there's been a really -- highly unusual series of cancellations that we went through. But the business environment underlying it has always been pretty okay. Maybe you're saying, well, I'm not real strong compared to what it had been a few years ago, but it's pretty good.

    我不知道。最大的差別在於,這次的取消訂單並非因為業務疲軟所致。有很多客戶面臨挑戰,這確實會影響商業環境。我們經歷了一系列非常不尋常的取消事件。但背後的商業環境一直都還不錯。你可能會說,嗯,和幾年前相比,我現在的力量不如以前了,但還不錯。

  • And despite all these huge cancellations out of this pre-backlog awarded study bucket, despite all of those, we still grew that bucket by 30% over the last year. It would have grown much faster, and we'd have a much bigger backlog at this point if we hadn't had those cancellations. But the difference is this has been driven by cancellations, not really weak funding environment causing lack of opportunities.

    儘管在積壓項目授予研究類別中出現了大量取消,但儘管如此,我們在過去一年中仍然使該類別增加了 30%。如果沒有那些取消訂單的情況,我們的業務成長速度會更快,而且現在我們的積壓訂單也會更多。但不同之處在於,這種情況是由計畫取消造成的,而不是資金環境疲軟導致機會匱乏。

  • David Windley - Equity Analyst

    David Windley - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And so then from kind of a metric cycling standpoint, you and I, after the last quarter talked about your burn rate kind of naturally increasing in at least some large part because you hadn't been adding a lot of early, new to start studies into the, call it, the early part of the backlog.

    知道了。因此,從某種指標週期角度來看,你我上個季度討論過,你的資金消耗率自然而然地增加,這在很大程度上是因為你沒有在所謂的積壓工作的早期階段添加很多新的、需要啟動的研究。

  • And so now you're getting into a period where it feels like that is probably going to happen, get healthier, more added to the backlog. And so I appreciate also the '26 commentary. If I were to kind of interpret, you would expect backlog to grow faster, burn rate to come down and then your need to -- and this is -- given my next question is your need to hire to support that growth is probably going to accelerate. Is that the right way to think about how the business is going to evolve?

    所以現在你進入了一個時期,感覺這種情況可能會發生,身體狀況會好轉,積壓的事情也會越來越多。所以我也很欣賞 26 年的評論。如果讓我來解讀一下,你會預期積壓訂單成長更快,資金消耗率下降,然後——考慮到我的下一個問題——你需要招募人員來支持這種成長,這種情況可能會加速。這種思考企業未來發展方向的方式是否正確?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I think that's a reasonable scenario.

    是的,我認為這是合理的設想。

  • David Windley - Equity Analyst

    David Windley - Equity Analyst

  • And on the hiring, where -- we haven't talked about your beginnings of your offshoring activity that I think you started in 2024. How is that progressing? And where is your hiring happening? And that would be my last question.

    至於招募方面,我們還沒有談到您從 2024 年開始的離岸外包活動。進展如何?你們的招募工作在哪裡進行?這將是我的最後一個問題。

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. So, hiring in year-to-date and in the last quarter, the largest region of growth was North America and all that really United States. The second largest would be Asia Pac. The kind of 2 outlying areas that we've not really grown staff at all are Europe and China. And throughout Asia Pac, it's throughout Asia Pac, although our largest hiring area in Asia Pac as a single country was India.

    當然。因此,從今年迄今的招聘情況以及上個季度來看,成長最快的地區是北美,尤其是美國。第二大地區是亞太地區。歐洲和中國是我們幾乎沒有擴充員工隊伍的兩個偏遠地區。整個亞太地區都有我們的招募業務,儘管在亞太地區,我們最大的招募區域是印度。

  • Over the last few years, starting, as you say, a couple of years back, we started hiring in India, and that has added a substantial number of staff over time, not compared to our overall numbers, but that's been a focus area in Asia Pac. So I think that it's pretty balanced, and most of the hiring recently has been U.S. and that's kind of a transition in the market. There's been more U.S.-focused work lately and a lot of the metabolic stuff is more U.S. focused. So that's been a very strong area of growth.

    正如你所說,從幾年前開始,我們在過去幾年裡開始在印度招募員工,隨著時間的推移,這增加了相當多的員工,雖然與我們的整體員工人數相比還不算多,但這一直是我們在亞太地區的重點領域。所以我認為目前市場比較平衡,而且最近的招聘大多集中在美國,這算是市場的一種轉變。最近有更多以美國為中心的研究,許多代謝的研究也更著重在美國。所以這方面成長非常強勁。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Max Smock, William Blair.

    我們的下一個問題來自馬克斯·斯莫克和威廉·布萊爾的著作。

  • Max Smock - Analyst

    Max Smock - Analyst

  • August, maybe 1 on the just expectations for book-to-bill here moving forward. You talked about initial awards being up 30% year-over-year. But based on kind of the midpoint of the guide, I think you need to do 55% growth in bookings in 4Q to put up a 1.2 book-to-bill in the quarter. Can you help us bridge that gap or maybe just elaborate on your booking expectations for 4Q? And what you've embedded in your guide for bookings in 2026?

    8 月,或許是這裡對未來訂單出貨率的預期的 1 日。您提到初始獎勵年增了 30%。但根據該指南的中點來看,我認為第四季預訂量需要成長 55%,才能在該季度實現 1.2 的預訂出貨比。您能否幫助我們彌補這一差距,或詳細說明您對第四季度的預訂預期?那麼,您在2026年的預訂指南中都包含了哪些內容呢?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. We're not giving a guide to '26, and I don't know where the bookings you are going to come out. So I'm not going to get into -- trying to set them. We did say that second half of '25, we did think that we could get to 1.15. We thought a reasonable chance of getting there, and that's kind of where we're looking at towards Q4, is sort of the target. And I think that looks reasonable. But I'm not going to get into next year yet.

    是的。我們不提供 2026 年的指南,我也不知道你們的預訂情況會如何。所以我不會去嘗試設定它們。我們確實說過,在 2025 年下半年,我們認為我們有可能達到 1.15。我們認為有相當大的機會實現這個目標,而這正是我們第四季要努力達到的目標。我覺得這看起來很合理。但我現在還不想談明年。

  • Max Smock - Analyst

    Max Smock - Analyst

  • Maybe just following up on that point. I mean, 1.15 still kind of implies 45% plus bookings growth in 4Q, is that disconnect from the 30% growth in initial awards to that 45%, give or take, on net new business awards in 4Q? Is that disconnect -- is that typically there in a quarter? Like what's your visibility into that bookings in 4Q, given the initial awards up 30%?

    或許只是想就這一點做個補充說明。我的意思是,1.15 仍然意味著第四季度預訂量增長超過 45%,這與初始訂單量增長 30% 到第四季度淨新增業務訂單量增長 45%(上下浮動)之間是否存在脫節?這種脫節現象-通常一個季度都會出現這種情況嗎?鑑於初始獎勵機票數量增加了 30%,您對第四季的預訂情況有何預測?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, look, as I said, that bucket is a little bit bigger, and it's 30% growth, not 30% increase in awards. I'm talking about the total bucket is up 30%. Awards -- new awards were up sequentially a bit, but that's -- it's the total bucket, and how much of that has to -- is needed to drive a given booking number, I don't know.

    嗯,你看,正如我所說,這個桶子稍微大了一點,而且是增長了 30%,而不是獎勵增加了 30%。我指的是總桶數增加了 30%。獎項——新獎項數量環比略有增長,但這只是總數,至於需要多少才能達到特定的預訂量,我就不得而知了。

  • Max Smock - Analyst

    Max Smock - Analyst

  • Yes. Okay. That makes sense. Maybe just as a quick follow-up here. You gave some color on decisions progressing at a usual tempo. Just wondering how those decision-making timelines have changed more recently? And what you're hearing from customers around this confidence in the funding environment moving forward?

    是的。好的。這很有道理。或許這裡可以簡單補充一下。你對以正常速度推進的決策過程進行了一些描述。想了解最近這些決策時間表發生了哪些變化?那麼,您從客戶那裡了解到他們對未來融資環境的信心如何?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. No. I think things are moving -- Q1, we had a sort of -- things were held up. We weren't getting our sort of pending RFPs, total dollar pending decisions, has kind of spiked and there was a lot of slowdown in things. And that's then improved quite a bit. And it's been now, I wouldn't say, yes, there's still a challenged -- funding challenges for clients. And so some are delayed, et cetera. But I think overall, things are going on a pretty reasonable pace, certainly, it's somewhat normalized.

    是的。不。我認為事情正在好轉——第一季度,我們遇到了一些——事情進展緩慢。我們之前收到的待處理 RFP、待決決定的總金額等資訊突然激增,導致很多事情進展緩慢。之後情況有了很大的改善。現在,我不會說,是的,客戶仍然面臨資金方面的挑戰。因此,有些事情會被延誤,等等。但我認為整體而言,事情進展得相當順利,當然,也已經基本恢復正常了。

  • I don't -- there isn't a big a large jump in sort of that pending work and people not making decisions and holding things up. So I think we're moving along -- things are moving along pretty well, and that's what we hear in terms of feedback. People are getting -- are getting funding. I think things are moving along. There's a parallel group that are stalled and having trouble, but we have the flexibility to jump where we need to be.

    我不這麼認為——並沒有出現那種待辦工作和人們遲遲不做決定、拖延事情的大幅增長。所以我覺得我們正在取得進展——事情進展得相當順利,這也是我們從回饋中聽到的。人們正在獲得資金。我認為事情正在朝著好的方向發展。還有一個平行小組進展停滯,遇到了困難,但我們有靈活性,可以隨時切換到我們需要去的地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from the line of Jailendra Singh, Truist Securities.

    下一個問題將來自 Truist Securities 的 Jailendra Singh。

  • Jailendra Singh - Analyst

    Jailendra Singh - Analyst

  • First, a quick clarification on your preliminary 2026 growth expectations or numbers up. Just to clarify, that underlying assumption there is the environment looks similar to what you are seeing in Q3 in terms of bookings, flow and pipeline, like that's the underlying assumption. I want to make sure that.

    首先,請快速澄清一下您對 2026 年的初步成長預期或數位成長。需要澄清的是,這裡的基本假設是,就預訂、流程和銷售管道而言,環境看起來與第三季的情況類似,這就是基本假設。我想確保這一點。

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. We kind of always push forward the environment, but a lot of '26 is already kind of -- cancellations are the biggest sort of wildcard. But yes, you're right, the business environment, there still are things that -- to be newly awarded now that will affect next year. But kind of most of the pipeline is there, and the big question mark is cancellation rate. And what we're assuming is actually, it could be a little bit higher than where it has been this quarter and last quarter in Q3 and in Q2, but it doesn't jump up again to like levels of Q1 and Q4 and things like that.

    是的。我們一直在努力推動環境發展,但 2026 年的許多事情已經有點……取消是最大的不確定因素。但是,你說得對,商業環境,仍然有一些因素——現在新獲得的獎項——將會影響到明年。但大部分管道已經搭建完畢,最大的疑問是取消率。我們假設,實際上,它可能會比本季和上個季度(第三季和第二季)的水平略高一些,但不會像第一季和第四季那樣再次躍升到同樣的水平。

  • Jailendra Singh - Analyst

    Jailendra Singh - Analyst

  • Okay. And then a quick follow-up on the margin trends. So thanks for the color on the growth number for next year. But outside of pass-through, as you think about the margins in the core direct service revenue business, can you talk about the leverage on gross margin and SG&A? You had a nice kind of improvement this quarter. Just trying to understand the trends there. And I mean, do you think that you're pretty much at the peak on this margin on the -- again, outside of pass-through impact?

    好的。然後快速跟進利潤率趨勢。感謝您提供的明年成長數據。但除了轉嫁費用之外,在考慮核心直接服務收入業務的利潤率時,您能否談談毛利率和銷售、一般及行政費用的槓桿作用?你本季取得了不錯的進步。我只是想了解那裡的趨勢。我的意思是,你認為在這個邊際效益方面,除了傳遞影響之外,你是否已經基本上達到頂峰了?

  • Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes. Jailendra, as August mentioned, we provided some color on both revenue and EBITDA for 2026. And the margin for the most part is expected to remain in a very good spot. And so we're continuing to see improved productivity from our existing employee base. Some of that is just driven by improved attrition rates. They remain very low. Great utilization levels, and studies are progressing at a very good pace.

    是的。Jailendra,正如 August 所提到的,我們對 2026 年的收入和 EBITDA 都做了一些說明。預計利潤率將基本保持在非常有利的水平。因此,我們看到現有員工的生產力持續提高。部分原因是由於人員流失率的降低。它們仍然很低。利用率很高,研究進展也非常順利。

  • As we said in the third quarter, we are seeing improved funding, and with the fewer cancellations, things are progressing in a very good way. So we do expect margins to remain in a good spot in 2026, and it's really driven by just continued productivity of the business.

    正如我們在第三季所說,資金狀況有所改善,取消訂單的情況也減少了,一切都在朝著非常好的方向發展。因此,我們預計 2026 年利潤率將保持良好水平,這主要得益於業務持續的生產力提升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is going to come from the line of Dan Leonard, UBS.

    下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的丹·倫納德。

  • Daniel Leonard - Analyst

    Daniel Leonard - Analyst

  • I'm curious how you would describe the breadth of outperformance in Q3. Would you attribute the upside to a narrow set of 1 to 2 customers? Or was it broader than that?

    我很想知道您會如何描述第三季業績超預期的廣度。您認為收益成長只是因為一兩個客戶嗎?還是它的範圍比這更廣?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • In terms of what, revenue?

    指的是收入方面嗎?

  • Daniel Leonard - Analyst

    Daniel Leonard - Analyst

  • Yes, exactly. Just looking at the revenue in Q3 compared to Q2, it looks like the growth came in top 5, it came in metabolic. I'm just looking for color on breadth versus what otherwise might suggest that there was just a big trial that landed in the quarter?

    是的,正是如此。單看第三季與第二季的營收對比,成長似乎來自前五名業務,也就是代謝類業務。我只是想了解整體情況,而不是僅僅因為本季度進行了一次大型試驗就得出這樣的結論?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Kevin, do you want to...

    凱文,你想…

  • Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes. Dan, I'd say it's pretty broad-based. I mean, certainly, some of that was just influenced by the pass-throughs. I mean, pass-throughs continued to increase. I think, for the quarter, we were right around 42%. So that certainly had an influence. But then, also just the carryover of the improvements that we saw coming out of our conversation in Q2, where we saw improved funding in those studies progressing forward, the fewer cancellations in the second quarter, and that translating further into the third quarter. So it's pretty broad-based. I wouldn't say it's isolated to a handful of studies.

    是的。丹,我覺得它的基礎相當廣泛。我的意思是,當然,其中一些肯定受到了過路費的影響。我的意思是,過路費持續增加。我認為,就本季而言,我們的結果大約在 42% 左右。所以這肯定產生了一定影響。但同時,我們也看到了第二季度討論中取得的進展,這些進展帶來了資金的改善,推動了相關研究的推進,第二季度的取消數量也減少了,而這些改善也延續到了第三季度。所以它的基礎相當廣泛。我不會說這種情況僅限於少數幾項研究。

  • Daniel Leonard - Analyst

    Daniel Leonard - Analyst

  • Okay. Appreciate that. And then just a quick follow-up. Do you need to accelerate head count growth further to service your sales forecast for next year? Or is that low single-digit growth rate in head count growth the right number?

    好的。謝謝。然後還有一個簡短的後續問題。為了滿足明年的銷售預測,您是否需要進一步加快人員成長?或者說,這種個位數的人員成長率才是正確的數字嗎?

  • Jesse Geiger - President

    Jesse Geiger - President

  • We expect head count acceleration as we head into next year.

    我們預計明年員工人數將加速成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from the line of Luke Sergott, Barclays.

    下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的盧克·塞爾戈特。

  • Luke Sergott - Analyst

    Luke Sergott - Analyst

  • Great. I'm also 1 of those that thought that there would be an air pocket. I just want to talk about the competitive win rate that you guys are seeing. We're hearing from some of the larger CROs that typically have been played in that part of -- in your part of the market that they're going to start competing or entering or bidding on some of this business. So are you guys starting to see the likes of them show up? Or just any color around that?

    偉大的。我也是認為裡面會有氣泡的人之一。我只想談談你們看到的競技勝率。我們從一些通常在你們這部分市場中佔據主導地位的大型 CRO 那裡了解到,他們將開始參與競爭、進入市場或競標這部分業務。所以你們開始看到像他們這樣的人出現了嗎?或周圍的任何顏色都可以?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. They've always been there. I don't know about the additional effort or attention there. Certainly, there's a lot of talk about it, but we see the same players, and it is the large providers that we're often competing against. Our win rate has been okay. I mentioned last quarter, it was actually down a little bit. Awards were actually good because the total decisions were elevated. Our win rate did come back up this quarter. And some fewer number of decisions, but again, good awards.

    是的。它們一直都在那裡。我不了解那裡是否需要額外的努力或關注。當然,關於這方面的討論很多,但我們看到的還是同樣的參與者,我們經常與之競爭的仍然是那些大型供應商。我們的勝率還可以。我上個季度也提到過,實際上略有下降。頒獎其實是件好事,因為它提升了整體決策的層次。本季我們的勝率確實回升了。評選結果數量雖然減少,但獎項依然豐厚。

  • We don't see a trend towards greater competition causing our win rate to deteriorate. There has been some movement over the last year or so to bring more providers to an opportunity. So instead of what you often see was 3, maybe 4 CROs now is often it's 6 or even more. And so that obviously reduces the win rate a little bit for everybody. But I think you correct for those situations. And I think our competitive position is very strong.

    我們並未看到競爭加劇導致我們勝率下降的趨勢。在過去一年左右的時間裡,已經出現了一些動向,旨在為更多供應商創造機會。所以,以前你常看到的是 3 個,也許 4 個轉換率優化機構,現在通常是 6 個甚至更多。因此,這顯然會稍微降低所有人的勝率。但我認為你對這些情況的處理是正確的。我認為我們的競爭地位非常強。

  • Luke Sergott - Analyst

    Luke Sergott - Analyst

  • Great. And then I guess a follow-up here, not to beat a dead horse, but on the burn rate and kind of how you're thinking about that through next year, where do you think that like -- not even through the end of next year, but where do you think that this kind of settles out, as we think about kind of the out years? Could it be more elevated versus what you had in, let's say, before it started ramping up in like the high teens?

    偉大的。然後我想再問一下,雖然不想老生常談,但關於資金消耗速度以及您如何看待明年的情況,您認為——甚至不是到明年年底,而是當我們考慮未來幾年時,這種情況最終會穩定下來嗎?與十幾歲開始加速增長之前相比,現在的水平是否更高?

  • Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes. I mean, I don't think we can answer that question in terms of the long term. It's a lot dependent on our mix of programs, where they are in their life cycle. It depends on your future bookings. If you go back to a couple of years, coming out of COVID, when our bookings were very strong, our burn rate came down quite a bit. So, it is influenced by how things are progressing from award notifications into programs in the backlog. So, it's hard to say. Our range has been quite wide.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為我們無法從長遠角度回答這個問題。這很大程度上取決於我們的專案組合以及它們所處的生命週期階段。這取決於您未來的預訂情況。如果回顧幾年前,也就是新冠疫情爆發初期,當時我們的預訂量非常強勁,資金消耗率也大幅下降。所以,這取決於從獎項通知到積壓項目的進度。所以,很難說。我們的產品範圍相當廣泛。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Justin Bowers, DB.

    我們的下一個問題來自後衛賈斯汀·鮑爾斯。

  • Justin Bowers - Analyst

    Justin Bowers - Analyst

  • All right. So I just want to follow up on Luke's comment and your remarks on the win rate, August. You said fewer decisions, but good awards and the win rate was up. So are we to infer that your average award size was larger or more than substantial this quarter? So that's part one. And then part 2 is just can you give us a sense of how your conversion or retention or win rates have been trending, call it, over the last couple of years of programs that progress from Phase II to Phase III?

    好的。所以我想就盧克的評論和你關於勝率的評論做個補充,August。你說過判決次數減少了,但獲獎情況卻很好,勝率也提高了。所以我們可以推斷,本季您的平均獎勵金額更大,或者說非常可觀嗎?這是第一部分。第二部分,您能否簡單介紹一下,在過去幾年中,從第二階段到第三階段的專案中,您的轉換率、留存率或成功率的趨勢如何?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I don't think there's been any change in that. We -- that's -- it's kind of all over the map, but usually, we can progress from Phase II to III, but there's a lot of times that products within our clientele are sold or moved to someone else. And sometimes we also just don't win the Phase III. We're considered not strong enough in a particular market or something. I don't know that that's changed at all.

    是的。我認為情況沒有任何改變。我們——情況有點複雜,但通常情況下,我們可以從第二階段發展到第三階段,但很多時候,我們客戶的產品會被出售或轉移到其他人那裡。有時候,我們甚至無法贏得第三階段的比賽。我們在某個特定市場或其他地方被認為實力不夠強。我不知道情況是否有改變。

  • Justin Bowers - Analyst

    Justin Bowers - Analyst

  • Okay. And then in terms of the award size in the quarter?

    好的。那麼,就本季的獎勵金額而言呢?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I'm sorry. I don't actually have that. Anybody on the line have that?

    是的,我很抱歉。我其實沒有那個。有人有嗎?

  • Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • It's pretty normal, I would say, Justin. There's been -- there were no significant decisions. And remember, decisions were notified as an award. Those don't go in the backlog, right? They fit into that kind of pre-backlog market. But I wouldn't say there was anything out of the ordinary in the quarter from a decision standpoint.

    我覺得這很正常,賈斯汀。沒有任何重大決定。請記住,決定是以獎勵的形式通知的。這些不會進入積壓工作,對吧?它們符合那種尚未積壓訂單的市場需求。但從決策的角度來看,我認為本季並沒有什麼異常之處。

  • Justin Bowers - Analyst

    Justin Bowers - Analyst

  • And then in terms of the pre-backlog, how does that -- how does the therapeutic mix of that compare to the revenue that you're showing right now? So just sort of frame things a little bit, like oncology is 30% -- was 30% in 3Q and like metabolic was 27%. When you look at the pre-backlog, is it over-indexed or under-indexed relative to those 2 therapeutic areas?

    那麼,就未完成的訂單而言,這些訂單的治療組合與您目前展示的收入相比如何?所以,簡單概括一下,例如腫瘤科佔 30%——第三季是 30%,代謝科佔 27%。從積壓前的病例數來看,相對於這兩個治療領域而言,病例數是過多還是過少?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • It's over-indexed in metabolic as you might expect. Not massively, but there is a -- it's a higher proportion. And that, again, fits in with what we're currently seeing and burning.

    正如你所預料的那樣,它在代謝方面佔比過高。雖然不至於非常嚴重,但比例確實更高。而這,也與我們目前所看到和正在燃燒的事物相吻合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from the line of Eric Coldwell, Baird.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Eric Coldwell Baird 的提問。

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • I have maybe 3. First, on the preliminary views of 2026 talking about the revenue outlook. If we run various inputs on what the fourth quarter service revenue might look like and then also what does low double-digit growth mean and 41% to 42% pass-throughs, you can run various scenarios. They all lead to service revenue implied growth or preliminary view growth of being somewhere in the upper mid-single digits to low double digits growth. Is that your interpretation as well? Or am I missing something?

    我可能有3個。首先,我們來談談 2026 年的初步收入前景。如果我們對第四季度服務收入可能的情況進行各種輸入,以及兩位數低成長和 41% 至 42% 的轉嫁率意味著什麼,就可以運行各種情境。所有這些都預示著服務收入將實現中等偏上個位數到低兩位數的成長。你也是這麼理解的嗎?還是我漏掉了什麼?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I believe your math. All right, Kevin, do you want to comment on that?

    我相信你的計算結果。好的,凱文,你對此有什麼看法嗎?

  • Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Eric, could you say that again, up mid double digit...

    艾瑞克,你能再說一次嗎?已經達到兩位數中段了…

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • I don't know if you're going to do $400 million of -- sorry, go ahead.

    我不知道你是否打算投資 4 億美元——抱歉,請繼續。

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Go ahead. Say it again.

    前進。再說一次。

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • Yes. Look, I mean, it's going to be annoying on the call here, but I don't know if you're going to do $400 million of service revenue in Q4, $410 million. I don't know what that number is. So there's various bases from which we have to grow. But if I model low double-digit revenue growth, and I take it all the way up to 12.5%, which is my view of the low end of low double -- or the high end of low double digit, and then, I say pass-through is at the low end of mix, 41%. Even using various inputs like that, I'm coming up with service revenue growth somewhere in the mid- to upper single digits on the low end of the range up to low double digits on the high end of the range. And the only reason I'm focusing on that -- yes.

    是的。聽著,我的意思是,這通電話可能會讓人很煩,但我不知道你們第四季能否實現 4 億美元或 4.1 億美元的服務收入。我不知道那個數字是多少。所以,我們需要從多個方面發展。但如果我模擬兩位數低收入增長,並且我將其提高到 12.5%(這是我對兩位數低增長的下限的看法)——或者兩位數低增長的上限,那麼,我認為轉嫁比例處於組合的低端,為 41%。即使採用這樣的各種輸入數據,我得出的服務收入成長預期也只能達到個位數中高段,或兩位數低段。我之所以關注這一點,唯一的原因就是──是的。

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • That sounds reasonable.

    聽起來合情合理。

  • Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Kevin Brady - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes, that's fair.

    是的,這很合理。

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • Yes. So, I thought -- and maybe I'm still taking too many crazy pills here, but I thought last quarter, we came off thinking it was going to be more like 15% service revenue growth. And I -- maybe I misinterpreted comments last quarter, but admittedly, I was a bit higher on my service revenue outlook for next year.

    是的。所以,我當時想——也許我的想法還是太天真了——但我認為上個季度,我們預計服務收入成長將達到 15% 左右。而且——也許我誤解了上個季度的評論,但不得不承認,我對明年的服務收入預期略高一些。

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I don't think we made any comments about next year's growth at all, let alone service revenue.

    是的,我認為我們根本沒有對明年的成長做出任何評論,更不用說服務收入了。

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • Yes. Yes, I might have misinterpreted something. On the pre-backlog, the 3 to 6 -- or I'm sorry, you said pre-backlog, you kind of again confirmed that it's above backlog, so it's above $3 billion. I think there's a range out there of where it might be. Obviously, more than $3 billion, but less than X, so I was hoping you could give us a little more specificity because I still think there's a lot of confusion on the Street about these quarterly net new awards.

    是的。是的,我可能誤解了某些內容。在積壓訂單之前,3 到 6——或者抱歉,你說的是積壓訂單之前,你又一次確認它高於積壓訂單,所以它高於 30 億美元。我認為它可能位於的範圍很廣。顯然超過 30 億美元,但少於 X,所以我希望您能給我們更具體的說明,因為我仍然認為華爾街對這些季度淨新增獎勵有很多困惑。

  • There are really not things that are happening in the quarter. It's the amalgamation of everything you've built up in the past that's moving into revenue generation phase. So having a sense on that bucket, is it $4 billion, $5 billion, $6 billion having a sense on that bucket could help, maybe help people think about what magnitude of that pre-backlog actually needs to convert to revenue generation phase whereby it then goes into your reported backlog.

    本季其實沒什麼大事發生。這是你過去累積的一切的融合,現在正進入創收階段。因此,了解這個「積壓訂單」的規模(是 40 億美元、50 億美元還是 60 億美元)可能會有所幫助,或許可以幫助人們思考,究竟需要將多少積壓訂單轉化為收入產生階段的訂單,然後才能將其計入你報告的積壓訂單中。

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I mean, look, it's part of an overall pipeline. And they are firm awards at that point, but it is part of an overall pipeline. And we do tend to see -- we have seen some very large cancellations there. So we don't treat it like backlog because until the study is actually running and gets patients in, there is a higher risk. But look, I don't want to get into putting numbers on that and then tracking just the size of it and size of what other buckets, et cetera. I think we provide adequate information on the overall parameters that we look at and measure and pay attention to give trends, but yes, the bucket is somewhere under $4 billion, right?

    我的意思是,你看,這是整個流程的一部分。而且這些獎項在那時就已經確定了,但這只是整體流程的一部分。而且我們確實經常看到——我們已經看到一些非常大規模的取消預訂。所以我們不把它當作積壓工作來處理,因為在研究真正開始並招募病人之前,風險更高。但是,我不想去量化它,然後追蹤它的大小以及其他桶的大小等等。我認為我們提供了足夠的信息,說明我們觀察、衡量和關注的總體參數,以便了解趨勢,但是,是的,這個數字應該在 40 億美元以下,對吧?

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • Okay. That's super helpful, actually. And then last one, thank you for allowing my time here, you made a comment earlier about this total bucket of awarded work that isn't in backlog being up 30% year-over-year. And then in that same vein of commentary, you said something about haven't gotten the first patient in, so then I got thinking, are you basically telling us that you don't put an award here until you actually have the first patient in the study because I used to think that the parameter was that you needed to be within 30 days of revenue generation. But maybe the real parameter is you actually are live in the study generating revenue before you put something in the back -- street-facing backlog.

    好的。這真的很有幫助。最後,感謝您抽出時間,您之前提到,已授予但尚未積壓的工作總量同比增長了 30%。然後,你又以同樣的語氣評論說,還沒有招到第一個病人,所以我就在想,你是不是在告訴我們,只有在研究中真正招到第一個病人之後才會頒發獎項?因為我以前認為,評判標準是必須在產生收入後的 30 天內。但或許真正的參數是,在你把東西放到後面之前,你是否真的在研究中產生了收入——也就是面向市場的積壓訂單。

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • That's correct. It could be that there's revenue prior to -- and even sometimes a chunk of revenue prior to reaching backlog...

    沒錯。有可能在積壓訂單之前就已經有收入了——甚至有時在積壓訂單之前就已經有一部分收入了…

  • Eric Coldwell - Analyst

    Eric Coldwell - Analyst

  • So this is how the revenue started growing before the head count did. I'm just -- I'm trying to get a sense like things started -- the work sped up maybe a bit faster than you were thinking 6 months ago, when you had some cancels and market uncertainty. The work sped up sometime between April and July, the tone and the messaging clearly shifted. It just feels like maybe this work really picked up pace and you were sitting right there not quite in backlog, but suddenly the stuff is in backlog, and now, we get the big revenue spike. I'm just trying to get a sense on what really are these dynamics between reported backlog, the pre-backlog and then the notion that your revenue actually accelerated pretty quickly before your head count growth did in that...

    所以,這就是收入在員工人數成長之前就開始成長的原因。我只是——我試圖了解事情的進展——工作進展可能比你6個月前預想的要快一些,當時你們遇到了一些取消訂單和市場不確定性。這項工作在四月到七月間的某個時候加快了步伐,語氣和訊息傳遞方式也發生了明顯變化。感覺就像這項工作突然加速推進,你之前還未完全進入待辦事項列表,但突然間,這些事情就進入了待辦事項列表,現在,我們迎來了收入的大幅增長。我只是想了解一下,已公佈的積壓訂單、積壓訂單之前的訂單量,以及你們的收入實際上在員工人數增長之前就迅速增長這一說法之間,究竟存在哪些動態關係…

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So yes, and there's a couple of complements there. One is, yes, you're right, we put it in very late. Generally, patient doesn't -- patients got to be kind of -- we think a patient is going to go in a very short near term. So it's right about when you get the first patients in, but there's other reasons why there might be some concern on that. There's studies where we have a manufacturing problem. And actually, that was an issue recently. And in terms of it's right up to a lot of work being done, and we haven't got the patient in, but there's uncertainty around drug availability.

    是的,這裡面確實有一些讚美之詞。一是,是的,你說得對,我們安裝得非常晚。一般來說,病人不會──病人必須有點──我們認為病人會在很短的時間內過世。所以,大概就是在接收第一批病人的時候,但還有其他原因可能會讓人對此感到擔憂。有些研究顯示我們存在生產製造的問題。事實上,這確實是最近出現過的問題。就目前而言,還有很多工作要做,我們還沒有接診病人,但藥物供應方面存在不確定性。

  • There may be some other -- they need some decision at some regulatory authority to move forward with this. So those kind of things we don't put in backlog. So, there's a number of gates, but yes, things can be very close to large-scale revenue generation when they go into backlog.

    可能還有其他因素——他們需要某個監管機構做出決定才能推進此事。所以這類事情我們不會列入待辦事項清單。所以,雖然有很多關卡,但沒錯,當專案進入積壓階段時,它們可能非常接近大規模的收入成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we have a follow-up question from the line of David Windley, Jefferies.

    我們還有來自 Jefferies 的 David Windley 的後續問題。

  • David Windley - Equity Analyst

    David Windley - Equity Analyst

  • Eric asked 1 of the 2. I was going to follow up on the other one is on your metabolic indexing. So, a lot of the inbound questions I get on this particular topic, assume GLP-1, I wondered if, August, you'd be willing to provide some color on the breadth or lack of your participation in metabolic. My sense is that it is broader than just GLP-1 and maybe mostly non-GLP-1, but I wondered if you'd be willing to comment on that just so we have a better perspective of what your -- what the drivers are of that fast-growing part of your revenue and backlog.

    艾瑞克問了其中兩個問題中的一個。我原本打算跟進另​​一個問題,是關於你的代謝指數的。所以,我收到的很多關於這個特定主題的問題,假設是 GLP-1,我想知道 August,你是否願意就你參與代謝的廣度或缺乏參與提供一些細節。我的感覺是,它的範圍比 GLP-1 更廣,可能大部分是非 GLP-1 患者,但我想知道您是否願意就此發表評論,以便我們更好地了解您收入和積壓訂單中快速增長的那部分產品的驅動因素是什麼。

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So GLP-1 is probably 2/3 of our obesity, so it is a big chunk -- what you call in the GLP class kind of, is a large portion of the overall obesity, but it's not all of it. There's still a fair amount of other.

    是的。所以 GLP-1 可能占我們肥胖的 2/3,所以它佔很大一部分——在 GLP 類人群中,它佔了整體肥胖的很大一部分,但它並不是全部。還有相當一部分其他的。

  • David Windley - Equity Analyst

    David Windley - Equity Analyst

  • And is that spread across multiple clients, I would presume?

    而且,我猜想這筆費用是分攤到多個客戶身上的吧?

  • August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    August Troendle - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And I'm showing no further questions. And I would like to hand the conference back over to Lauren Morris for closing remarks.

    我不會再提其他問題了。現在,我謹將會議交還給勞倫·莫里斯,請她致閉幕詞。

  • Lauren Morris - Director of Investor Relations

    Lauren Morris - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you for joining us on today's call and for your interest in Medpace. We look forward to speaking with you again on our fourth quarter 2025 earnings call.

    感謝您參加今天的電話會議,也感謝您對 Medpace 的關注。我們期待在2025年第四季財報電話會議上再次與您交流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,您現在可以斷開連接了。祝大家今天過得愉快。